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Why was the severe storms outbreak on 14 November 2011 lacking in tornadoes whereas the outbreak two days later had multiple tornadoes? Despite the SPC outlook highlighting a 10% tornado probability contour with the potential for significant tornadoes (black hatching in the bottom left of Figure 1), almost no tornadoes occurred. Two or three tornadoes were later confirmed in southwest New York but those fell outside of the region of significant tornado threat stretching from southern Illinois to far western Pennsylvania. Two days later, multiple tornadoes were reported from Alabama to North Carolina even though the forecasted tornado probabilities were somewhat lower. I document the comparisons between these two events with a specific interest in finding differences that may lead to different outcomes than what was forecast. As a note, I consider SPC convective storms outlooks to be the state of the art of our science of forecasting these events and so it serves as a useful benchmark. So when events occur where an outcome is different than what's expected from these forecasts then something really useful can be learned.
|Figure 2. A four panel display of the morning 500 mb analysis and observations for 14 November (upper left) and 16 November (upper right). The 925 mb level is displayed in the bottom two panels. Source: SPC.
The clash of the air masses hypothesis now indicates that the 14th should be more tornadic. Perhaps I'm being a bit sarcastic by bringing up this term but I hear it promoted all too frequently. As we've already stated, the 14th was not the bigger tornado day and we already have seen that the most tornadic convection on the 16th didn't form on anything really resembling a front.
|Figure 3. Surface 2-D frontogenesis, surface plot and mosaic radar reflectivity for 20 UTC 14 November 2011. The thin black contours represent sealevel pressure while the thick blue line marks the cold front. Source: SPC
|Figure 4. Like Figure 3 except for 16 November.
There are cold fronts that produce tornadic convection. But the one on the 14th didn't. Perhaps the near storm environment was not so favorable after all on the 14th. Let's take a closer look.Tornadic storms like to begin in relatively uncapped air with at least sufficient CAPE to get an updraft to survive without being blown too far over by the deep layer vertical wind shear. The lack of CIN allows air parcels to rise from the near the ground into a convective updraft with relative ease producing what we call surface-based convection. Both days exhibited at least 500 j/kg of MLCAPE with little MLCIN (Figures. 5 and 6). Yet despite the appearance of little CIN, only the 16th of November produced significant convection ahead of the front. On the 14th, the radar mosaic and visible satellite imagery showed little in the way of even attempts at pre-frontal convection. With so little convection, hopes for a pre-frontal isolated storm evolving into a supercell were quite diminished.
|Figure 6. Similar to figure 5 except for 16 November
The cursory analysis of CAPE and CIN appeared to be sufficient for convective storms to form, and the shear certainly seemed sufficient to allow supercells to form if updrafts were allowed to properly interact with the shear. At least 40 kts of vertical wind shear would boost the prospects for supercells quite to the point that forecasters would expect them to form. Both 14 and 16 November had sufficient deep layer shear as implied by the bulk wind difference plots in the lowest half of the convectively active layers as Figures 7 and 8 show. In fact the 14th had nearly 80kts of bulk wind difference in the 0 - 6 km layer (a proxy for vertical wind shear).
|Figure 7. Effective bulk wind difference for 14 November 2011 - 20 UTC. Source: SPC.
|Figure 8. Similar to figure 7 except for 16 November - 22 UTC.
The only two environmental parameters to check would be boundary layer RH with mixed layer LCL as a proxy, and the vertical bulk wind difference in the 0-1 km layer. Instead of going through both of those plots, let me say that the MLLCL was near the optimal values of 700 m typically associated with significant tornadoes on both days. And the 0-1 km bulk wind difference was well above the 20 kts threshold typically associated with significant tornadoes with either squall lines or isolated super cells. On the 14th, the value was above 40 kts in eastern Indiana and Ohio. One thing to note was that the direction of the 0-1 km and the 0 - 6 km bulk wind difference indicated much more clockwise turning of the vertical shear with height on the 14th and not surprisingly the 0 - 1 km Storm Relative Helicity was correspondingly higher (~600 m2s-2 on the 14th vs ~200 m2s-2 on the 16th).
Putting MLCAPE, deep layer shear, MLLCL and Effective Storm-Relative Helicity (ESRH) together into the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP-effective layer; see Thompson et al. 2004) we see much higher values on the 14th (Figure 9) vs the 16th (Figure 10). So it's understandable that given a discrete, surface-based convective cell, it would be more likely to be tornadic on the 14th. But as we see in Figure 9 and 10 the convective mode appears decidedly more discrete on the 16th.
|Figure 9. Effective Significant Tornado Parameter (red contours) for 14 November 2011 - 20 UTC. A surface plot and mosaic radar reflectivity data are included for the same time.
|Figure 10. Same as figure 9 except for 16 November 2011 - 22 UTC.
In fact, the convection on the 14th appears to have evolved into a linear form within two hours of initiation (Figure 11). On the other hand the convection on the 16th traversing Georgia and eastern AL continued to move east in relatively discrete modes, especially in the northern half where the majority of tornadoes occurred (Figure 12).
|Figure 11. An animated loop of mosaic reflectivity from 14 November 2011 18 UTC to 00 UTC 15 November.
|Figure 12. Similar to figure 11 except for 16 November 2011 19 UTC to 17 November 00 UTC.
Despite the indices calling for a more actively tornadic November 14, the convective mode appears to have shortcut the possibility of cold front initiated cells to survive in discrete modes for very long. The line did start off with embedded supercells that showed the updrafts were interacting with the vertical wind shear. Several of these formed prompting local NWS offices to issue tornado warnings including this one by Lafayette, IN near 21 UTC (Figure 13). However no tornadoes were observed in Indiana and the supercells quickly evolved into ordinary cells organized into a post-cold frontal line within two hours.
|Figure 13. Base reflectivity (right) and velocity (left) at the 0.5 deg elevation scan from KIND 14 November 2011 - 2058 UTC. The red (yellow) polygons indicate tornado (severe thunderstorm) warnings.
To show whether or not the front orientation and motion would allow for small boundary-relative convective steering layer flow on 14 November, I tracked its motion using radar over an hour just as convection was beginning to initiate. I took the direction of frontal movement by drawing a line perpendicular to its orientation and from its starting to ending location along that line over a period of two hours to get a motion vector of 325 deg at 7 m/s.
Then I plotted the frontal motion on the hodograph in BUFKIT using an available embedded tool by clicking and dragging the right mouse button on the hodograph until I match the frontal motion vector I derived from the radar data (Figure 15). The front appears as an axis that looks quite similar to the orientation of the front on the plan view maps. From the front, I can directly see what the boundary-relative winds are like for any altitude by stretching a line from the wind of my choice straight to the front with the minimum distance covered. The wind at any level that's behind the front (above the white line) represent winds that the front overtakes, such as the 0-1 km wind layer. These winds could be called front-to-rear flow. Likewise any wind that's ahead of the front (below the white line) represents winds that overtake or pull away from the front and we'd call this rear to front flow.
In addition to winds, the motion of any feature can also be represented in boundary-relative form. The little M in the hodograph represents the mean steering layer flow in the 0-6 km layer. The motion of an ordinary cell about 12 km tall would follow this motion. Since it's behind the front, the ordinary cell would be overtaken by the front if ahead of it. If on the front, the cell would fall behind the front. On the other hand, any incipient cell that follows the 2 - 6 km mean wind would move roughly with the front since the 2 - 6 km wind layer represented by the red profile on the hodograph straddles both sides of the front. It turns out that using the 2 - 4 km layer to estimate new cell motion was what Wilson and Megenhardt (1997) showed as performing the best with observations however the 2 - 6 km layer is relatively close. It's not surprising this steering layer would indicate that widespread initiation is likely. Even the supercell motion vector (labeled R) also lies on the front implying that it wouldn't be able to pull away from the front from which it initiated.
But what about the 0 - 6 km wind layer that may be most representative for tracking the motion for mature ordinary cells? Its motion, labeled 'M', is well behind the front. Or in other words, an ordinary cell would fall behind the front at about 7 m/s and so we say the boundary-relative ordinary cell motion based on the 0-6 km layer is - 7 m/s. Direction doesn't matter beyond the sign of the velocity. A mature ordinary cell would leave the immediate lifting zone along the surface frontal boundary and would quickly have to be either satisfied with elevated inflow or the surface properties of the post frontal air. The latter option in this case would be hostile to the storm and it would likely die.
Judging by the behavior of the convection, it's most likely the convective steering layer flow was best represented by the 2 - 6 km layer and that it rode the boundary promoting a deep lifting zone and numerous storms. Thus the storms quickly merged promoting a larger cold pool and limiting the possibility that any individual cell could become tornadic.
So why wouldn't it matter if we had a squall line vs. discrete super cells. After all, squall lines produce tornadoes too. Well, there's not as much guidance available to come up with a supported reason. So I'll make a conjecture instead. There are two possible reasons: 1) the cold pools merged and helped the front to speed up resulting in the line becoming elevated, and 2) the orientation of the shear vector was almost parallel to the line of forcing and thus limiting the line-normal component of the shear. The second reason would result in a line outrun by its own gust front leading to a shallow sloped updraft which is hostile to producing strong stretching of any vorticity that may form along the gust front. At this point, I've not seen a squall line tornado form on a squall line whose gust front was galloping away from the heavy precipitation cores. I've also not seen a tornadic squall line with a small line-normal component of the vertical shear.
So if the poor orientation of the front resulted in an outflow dominated squall line despite the great sounding-based parameters on the 14th, why did the 16th produce tornadoes? Quite likely this day succeeded because the storms didn't form on the cold front. Instead the tornadic supercells formed on a weak low-level convergent boundary that spawned convection since the early morning in Mississippi and continued moving east through the day. The forcing was weak and fewer storms developed. However, as the RUC analysis sounding near Charlotte, NC showed in Figure 17, there was more than sufficient shear for tornadic supercells with an appropriately large amount of CAPE and humid boundary layer. The shear was not as strong as on the 14th but then the geometry and intensity of convective forcing allowed for discrete supercells to evolve into maturity.
|Figure 17. A RUC analysis sounding for 16 November 2011 - 21 UTC for Charlotte, NC, near and ~1 hour before the Rock, SC tornado.
Dial, G. L., J. P. Racy, R. L. Thompson, 2010: Short-Term Convective Mode Evolution along Synoptic Boundaries. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1430–1446.
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead, 2004: An Update to the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA.
Wilson, James W., Daniel L. Megenhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm Initiation, Organization, and Lifetime Associated with Florida Boundary Layer Convergence Lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1507–1525.


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Concerns Raised Over Safety Of Electric Vehicles
Tesla Motors has constantly been at the forefront of electric vehicle technology, showing the world that electric vehicles are not only better than gasoline vehicles on environmental impact, but are all-around better in every category. The company has recently unveiled the latest addition to its family of electric cars – the Model S P85D. This car comes with a new 'Insane Mode' which unlocks the true power of the vehicle. This mode is activated simply by pressing a large red button labelled "INSANE MODE" on the car's dash. When activated, the car switches on several hidden motors, allowing the car to accelerate from 0 to 60mph in a mere 16 milliseconds. While this acceleration is impressive, several other features which Tesla has been quiet about have recently been revealed, and have become extremely controversial amongst automobile critics and legal experts.
The Model S P85D can break the sound barrier. These speeds are well above the speed limit on almost all roads in the world, and would surely result in hefty fines and loss of license if caught. However, unless the police are driving a P85D, they will not be able to catch these speeders, making the car an ideal getaway car. As most police stations cannot afford to replace their fleet with high-end electric cars, many governments have been protesting the vehicle and have already begun passing bills banning its sale.
Electric cars are notoriously quiet vehicles. However, once the car is travelling above the sound barrier, a sonic boom is created from the sheer speed of the vehicle. These sonic booms are normally only ever produced by aircraft which are far enough away from earth that the sound doesn't damage anybody's hearing. At ground level, the sonic boom has a volume over 200 decibels which is enough to cause immediate, irreversible hearing damage, break glass, and in extreme cases can even kill small children.
Good weather is a requirement of driving any vehicle at these speeds. The 'insane mode' has a weather-altering feature which can drastically alter the weather patterns near the P85D. While the intention is that drivers will use this feature to prevent precipitation from falling near their vehicles, it can in fact be used to alter the weather in many other ways. For example, it can be used to prevent rain from ever falling in a specific area, or it can be used to create a small tornado capable of destroying a small town. The UN is concerned about a new form of warfare, meteorological warfare, developing as a result of these cars. Countries could prevent enemy nations from receiving rain, destroying their agriculture and causing massive famines and droughts. This kind of warfare would represent huge human rights violations. The UN is urging all countries to boycott these cars. Unfortunately, their attempts have proved futile as the UN has no real power and on a global stage, the world is in a state of anarchy.
Rumors have also recently been circulating around rumours of the backseat of the P85D being able to act as an electric chair when 'insane mode' is activated. If the feature does in fact exist, it may be a nod to the company's namesake, Nikola Tesla, a Serbian inventor from the early 1900s who was fascinated by electricity. One of Tesla's rivals was Thomas Edison who was a driving force behind the development of the electric chair. Having an electric chair in the back of the car is symbolic of how Tesla was always a step ahead of Edison. It also gives the driver an appreciation of the sacrifices early electrical engineers made, constantly working very close to strong currents of dangerous electricity. The company denies that this feature exists.
Seeing these features of this electric car, many people who object to electric cars have been wildly using rumours of these features to try to ban the sale of any electric cars and put Tesla Motors out of business. "Electric vehicles just aren't safe. We shouldn't be using them. They're even bad for the environment as they can cause large scale, immediate change to weather, which has a more drastic effect than global warming. We should really just stick with fossil fuels" said a spokesperson from OPEC. Some critics have gone as far as to say "what's next nuclear vehicles which double as atomic missiles?" somehow missing the fact that nuclear energy is actually a very safe, sustainable, efficient form of energy with very low emissions which has even been called the "energy of the future" based on the prediction that many countries will invest heavily in nuclear energy in the next several decades.

subset: commoncrawl


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The Beginners Guide For Getting Started With Mac And iPhone Applications
If you are a new Mac and iPhone user, you may not be aware of the hundreds of thousands of applications available for Apple devices. In my humble opinion, the best way to maximize the investment you make in a piece of Apple hardware is to load it up with applications that will make your life easier and more productive, and that might provide you a little fun and entertainment.
The purpose of this article is to introduce you to the basic ways to browse and download apps for your Mac, iPhone, iPad, and/or iPod touch. If you are an experienced user of Apple devices, you might want to pass this article along to beginners who might be bugging you about where to find the best and most popular apps for their Apple device(s).
Mac Computers
For Mac computers and laptops, Apple has set up an App Store portal that you can access on your Mac if it is running OS X Lion or Mountain Lion. Even if you don't know which operating system you're running, the App Store application can be found in the Dock on your Mac, or in the application's folder.
What's great about the App Store is that all the applications have been approved by Apple, and all the programs you download are permanently added to your account.
So if you accidentally trash an application you downloaded from the App Store or if buy a new Mac computer, you can re-download the applications in your account at no extra charge. In addition, when developers release updates for their applications, you can add these updates from the App Store, also at no extra cost.
There are thousands of apps in the App Store, so one way to browse the content is through choosing categories of interests, including Business, Entertainment, Lifestyle, Photography, Social Networking, and Video.
For the Mac App Store, you will need an Apple account that includes your credit or debit card. If you have not set up such an account, you will be asked to do so when you first try to download a free or paid application from the Store.
Read my article about how to get started using the Mac App Store, and also my 8 tips for getting the most out of the Store. I highly recommend that when you're considering purchasing paid applications that in addition to reading the customer reviews and ratings, you should also visit the developer's website to view demo videos and get other information about the application you're planning to purchase.
Most developers also provide a trial download of their applications, which means if you decide to purchase their app, you can make a payment directly to the developer, or downloaded it, if available, from the App Store.
As you have probably noticed by now, MakeUseOf also regularly publishes reviews and how-to's of both Mac and PC applications. Visit our Best Mac Apps page to browse the broad categories of recommendations and reviews about applications that fit your needs.
iPhone and Other iOS Apps
Mac applications can't be downloaded and run on the iPhone or iPad because they use a different operating system called iOS. However, Apple and third-party developers do make versions of the applications for both the Mac and Apple's mobile devices. For example, there is a version of the Safari web browser for the Mac and and slightly different one for iOS devices, though they both very much the same.
The only place you can download an iOS app is from the iTunes App Store. You cannot purchase iOS apps directly from third-party developers. You can visit, browse, and download apps from the App Store by tapping on the App Store app installed by default on your iOS device, or through the iTunes application on your Mac.
Similar to the Mac version, the App Store introduces you to the featured and newsworthy apps, as well as a dozen categories of applications, and Top Charts app that you can browse based on your interests and needs.
The iOS App Store will also notify you of updates you have downloaded to your iOS device. It's a good idea to pay attention to the updates because they often include bug fixes and new app features that you will want to take advantage of.
As with the Mac App Store, you will also need an Apple account that includes your credit or debit card. The password you use for your Apple account can be used both in the Mac App Store and the iOS App Store.
You cannot download trial versions iOS applications, but many developers either provide their applications for free, or provide Lite versions, which include an app's basic features. Developers also release free ad-supported apps. Though most apps only cost five bucks or less, take some time to read the customer reviews and ratings to get an idea about the pros and cons of the app before you purchase. I also recommend that you visit a developer's site to view app demos and get other information.
iOS apps constantly get updated, and in most cases there are several apps created by different developers which include similar functions and features. MakeUseOf's Best iPhone Apps, and Best iPad Apps pages also feature links to full reviews and recommendations for both free and paid applications. (Note: most non-phone related apps that run on the iPhone can also run on the iPod touch. And many iPhone apps also get optimized for the iPad.) MUO also regularly publishes articles featuring "best of recommendations," such as my Top 10 Apps for 2012, and Apple's own 2012 Editor's Choice Awards.
If you're a beginning Mac or iOS user, let us know what questions you have about finding and downloading applications. We also invite you to regularly check out our site for daily reviews and how-tos of free and modestly priced applications that you can download.
The post The Beginners Guide For Getting Started With Mac And iPhone Applications appeared first on MakeUseOf.


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Make Time for Yourself
At times it can feel as though you've got enough on your plate without having to factor in some relaxation too. In fact, even if you do manage to grab a precious five minutes to put your feet up you might feel so stressed that you find it almost impossible to relax. So what's the answer? We might be excellent at multitasking, especially given today's busy lifestyle, but the clever way to relax is to turn the things you have to do every day into activities that nurture, nourish and relax you. Intrigued? Here's how…
We all have to eat, don't we? Rather than grab meals on the run or hastily popping something in the oven when you get home, why not try batch-cooking? By setting aside time every week to prepare your meals you're actually sending yourself a message that you care about your wellbeing and the wellbeing of the people you're cooking for. The food we eat impacts on how we feel so it makes sense that preparing to eat well is as much of an act of self care as something like meditation or yoga, which are both known to have positive health benefits. Plus, not having to worry about what's going on the dinner table is one less thing to think about on the way home from work and can make your evenings a lot less frantic.
Some mornings there's nothing more tempting than hitting the snooze button, flipping the pillow over to the cold side and going straight back to sleep. There's more and more evidence to show that having a morning ritual can be calming and set you up for the day. It could be something as simple as sitting with a coffee and the newspaper when you wake up, writing in a journal or going for a run, but do it every day and you're sending a message to you and the people around you that that's your time. Anna Wintour, Editor-in-Chief of Vogue, wakes up early and plays tennis every day to start her day while Arianna Huffington, Editor-in-Chief of The Huffington Post, starts her day with yoga and meditation and writes down her intentions for the day.
We've all done it, you're in a rush to get ready, you go to the wardrobe to grab your favourite top and realise it's in the ironing pile. Something as simple as laying out your clothes the night before removes any stresses of 'what should I wear' or having to cobble together an outfit. It's another way of troubleshooting anything that might slow you down, cause stress and anxiety or make you late. Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg wears the same outfit every day, a grey t-shirt, jeans and trainers, so his mind is focused on the important tasks he has ahead of him that day.
Makeup and skincare are two ways in which we can look after ourselves, but if you're doing it a rush you're missing an opportunity to use it as some 'me time'. If you layer your skincare take the time to apply each step using facial massage. Disperse congestion under the eyes by gently pulling from the bridge of the nose, under the eyes and down the side of the face and if you're prone to carrying tension, use your thumbs to unfurrow your brows by pulling them over and across the brows. Give this ceremony a soundtrack, listen to some calming music, tune into your favourite podcast or plug into an audiobook to help make it more than just a functional part of your day, but something you really enjoy.
It's very easy to feel overwhelmed by the things we have to do every day like keeping on top of housework, social commitments and work tasks, but taking time to write a list of everything you have to do can not only give you a structure it can be a way to centre yourself for the day ahead. Writing lists and organising your tasks means you're not using the neuro-resources in your brain that have to remind you, which means they can be directed elsewhere - the art of list-writing could make you more productive. But how do you write a good to-do list that'll actually make you feel better? Start with the thing you want to do the least and get it out of the way first. If you adopt a rule of doing what you have to do and then what you want to do, you're giving yourself an incentive to get through your list.Rather than scribbling on a scrap of paper, make list-writing into something luxurious that you look forward to. Buy a notepad that's just for your lists and cross-off each task as you go.


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Here's something that startled me: independent fiscal councils have been on the rise. That's the news from a new International Monetary Fund paper.
Okay, you don't know what the heck an independent fiscal council is, and I don't blame you. But it's potentially quite a useful thing – a watchdog that tries to improve a government's decisions on spending and revenue gathering.
There are suddenly a surprising number of these bodies around the world: 39 in all, including the US Congressional Budget Office, many European organisations, and the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO). Two-thirds of these groups were set up after 2007, and half after 2013.
And while some of these councils were set up under a European Union directive, they are taking off everywhere from Colombia to Kenya.
So why would governments put in place a group of people whose job is to tell them not to do whatever they want? For the same reason that (according to Homer) the Greek hero Odysseus had himself roped to the mast as his ship sailed past the sirens. He knew it was in his long-term interest to be restrained from giving in to an inevitable and dangerous short-term temptation.
Governments often like to spend money they don't have, but sometimes it would be better to pay off debt or even put some money into saving for the next rainy day – and they know it.
The mistakes of the 2000s
Both sides of politics gave in to dangerous temptation in 2007, when John Howard's government announced more than $34 billion in tax cuts, and Labor leader Kevin Rudd matched it. Those cuts gave an extra push to an economy that simply didn't need it.
In the tough years that followed the 2008–09 global financial crisis, those tax cuts made it harder for the government to return to surplus. It also became apparent that the boom in the mid 2000s and the accompanying budget surpluses were purely transient, mostly coming from mining. For all Howard's talk, his government had increasingly spent too much and taxed too little – that is, it had run a loose fiscal policy.
Australia would have been better off keeping those 2007–08 tax cuts in its back pocket. It also would arguably have been better off enforcing tougher fiscal policy – lower spending and higher taxes – once it became clear that the national finances weren't bouncing back after the GFC.
If only there had been an authoritative body – a fiscal council like the PBO – to set out the case for restraint in the mid 2000s. But the PBO was not set up until 2012, and then without much influence.
Fiscal councils work, a little
How effective are fiscal councils? Even the IMF agrees it's hard to say. Most independent fiscal councils are pretty new, their operating models vary widely, and many were established at the same time, in one area – Europe. But the IMF reckons that "tentative econometric evidence suggests that the presence of a fiscal council is associated with more accurate and less optimistic fiscal forecasts, as well as greater compliance with fiscal rules".
In other words, fiscal councils seem like they might help governments make better decisions about spending and taxing. Not a lot, necessarily, but some.
In Australia, the PBO follows in the steps of several other independent economic advisory bodies. The Reserve Bank now sets monetary policy independent of government. Infrastructure Australia makes the list of transport and power projects that governments should fund. In each case, an independent actor seems to have been a force for better policy.
For Australia, the task now is to make the PBO a real force in the national power structure. To return to our Odysseus analogy, the PBO is a very loose rope. It has not yet become capable of restraining governments from making bad fiscal decisions. The Treasury mightily resists even the suggestion that the PBO might set the economic parameters under which the Budget estimates are delivered.
A 'Reserve Bank' for taxing and spending
The creative economist Nicholas Gruen, who has been pushing for a powerful independent fiscal body for more than two decades, would like to go even further and really tie the government to the mast.
Gruen would like Australia eventually to have an independent body that actually declares what the balance of fiscal policy should be – a large deficit in tough times, a large surplus in a boom – while leaving it to government to decide the mix of taxing and spending that gets us there. It would be to fiscal policy what the Reserve Bank now is to monetary policy. That is not likely to happen anytime soon, but it is a powerful idea whose day may eventually come.
Meanwhile, the growth of independent fiscal councils is a reassuring sign that by making our institutions better, we can, over time, improve our government.
Read about David Walker's Why we're destined for most post-GFC pain.


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Schär – Europe's favourite in gluten free* and fastest growing gluten free brand in the UK** – is delighted to announce the launch of the new Wholesome Vitality Loaf into its popular gluten free bread portfolio.
Available in 500 Tesco's stores from October (RRP: £2.60), the Wholesome Vitality Loaf is made with quinoa, chestnut and sorghum plus sunflower and linseeds for a truly flavoursome and nutritious loaf. This delicious new gluten free bread is also high in fibre, low in saturated fat and suitable for vegans while being gluten, wheat, lactose and preservative free.
Bradley Grimshaw, UK Managing Director of Schär comments: "We know consumers are looking for great quality gluten free products with high nutritional value and this new loaf delivers just that. Furthermore, our unique packaging design ensures optimal shelf life which means our bread stays fresh without the need for preservatives."
The gluten free bread category is now worth over £69m and growing at 8% year on year.** Bread is the biggest category in gluten free with over 22% market share.**
Bradley Grimshaw comments: "The launch of the Wholesome Vitality Loaf marks the fourth bread launch for Schär in the UK during 2016. Schär has provided £4m of the sector's £5m growth within bread** and we see the category as one that has much opportunity for further growth and innovation."
The launch of the Wholesome Vitality Loaf will be supported by large scale online advertising activity which will run for eight weeks from early October. The advertising will target coeliacs, gluten sensitives and those with an interest in food, health and nutrition and invites consumers to try an item from the Schär bread range for free. To redeem the offer, customers are directed to download a voucher from the Schär website and post this to Schär along with their store receipt in order to be reimbursed for their Schär bread purchase.
Schär is Europe's favourite in gluten free* and fastest growing gluten free brand in the UK.** It is a brand of Dr Schär which has decades of experience in supplying people across the world on a gluten free diet with a broad range of tasty and innovative products and services to improve their quality of life. The Schär range in the UK includes bread and rolls, sweet and savoury foods such as biscuits and crackers, a selection of frozen convenience meals, pizzas, and even sausage rolls.
* Euromonitor data 2014
** IRI, Top 6 Retailers, 52 & 12 w/e 17th Sep 2016
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Holiness and Victory Over Sin #2
by Karl Kemp
9/10/2011 / Bible Studies
Holy Father we humble our hearts before you. We admit that we are totally dependent on your grace. We want to rightly divide your Word; we want to understand it; we want to live it. We want to be fully ready for the return of the Lord Jesus Christ and to stand before you. We pray in His mighty name. Amen.
I consider it a great privilege to be able to study these things and to share them with you. I consider these things to be infinitely important. We are talking about the heart of the message of the gospel of new-covenant salvation in the Lord Jesus Christ. Man has one primary problem, the sin problem, and Jesus Christ is the only answer, and He is the full answer. I realize that many Christians are doing a lot of sinning, but it is not OK. To be living in sin is a dangerous place to be. The good news is that we are called to stop sinning, and God's grace is sufficient, even if it's not always easy. This is good news, isn't it?
The first passage we began to look at last week was Gal. 5:16-25. We didn't finish our discussion of the first verse, verse 16, which is a super-important verse. I'm trying to be thorough and to explain the details that will enable us to understand this verse. First I'll read Gal. 5:16. I'll read it from my book, which uses the New American Standard Bible (NASB), 1977 edition. I'll read the verse and make a few comments. Then we'll go back to where we stopped last time. Frequently I'll make comments in the middle of quotation using brackets [ ], and sometimes I will use double brackets [[ ]] to make the brackets more obvious. "But I say [the apostle Paul writes to the Galatian Christians] But I say walk by the Spirit [the Holy Spirit], and you will not carry out the desire of the flesh." As I mentioned last time, I would translate, "But I say, walk by the Spirit and you certainly will not carry out the desire of the flesh."
The desire of the flesh is to sin, all sin. Walk by the Spirit on a continuous basis, and you certainly will not carry out the desire of the flesh. In other words, you will not sin. The desire of the flesh is to do the works of the flesh, which equals all sin, and not just sins especially associated with the physical body. For example, in Gal. 5:19-21 the apostle lists many works of the flesh, and he includes idolatry and sorcery, which are clearly sins of the heart/inner man. Walk by the Holy Spirit all the time (by faith) and you will be walking above sin. Now doesn't that sound good? And who gets the glory. Our holiness, our victory over sin comes 100 percent by the grace of God in Christ, and He gets all the glory, as it must be.
Now a walk by the Spirit is not automatic. A walk in faith is not automatic. We must understand God's Word, commit ourselves to it in faith, and live it by God's sufficient grace. The victory is far from being automatic. We could be born again, but still quite fleshly and worldly. The New Testament demonstrates this point, but it also makes it clear that this is a dangerous place to be. The only secure place to be is in the center of God's will, walking by His Spirit, walking in His righteousness, walking in faith based on what His Word says. Walk by (or after, or in) the Spirit, and you certainly will not carry out the sinful desire of the flesh. Galatians 5:16 is one of the most important verses in the New Testament which shows that we can, and should, have the victory over all sin.
Part of God's definition of what it means to be a Christian is to walk by the Holy Spirit all the time. This is not an optional matter. When we become Christians, we sign a contract (so to speak) agreeing to the terms of God's new covenant, which includes the requirement to walk by the Spirit all the time. But this is a great privilege! This is a great blessing! This isn't bondage! This is liberty! And God wants to transform us, not to condemn us. Praise God! When we truly repent, He is quick to forgive, but we need to make it top priority to walk in His righteousness and holiness, with the victory over all sin. We need to be aiming at that target, not making room for sin in our hearts and lives.
Now I'm going to turn back to where we stopped last time, on page 197 of my book. First I'll reread a few sentences. We are under the heading, "The Meaning of 'The Flesh' as These Words Are Used in Galatians 5:13-25." It is common for the apostle Paul (and others in the New Testament) to use the words "the flesh" to speak of fallen man (man in spiritual death, man separated from the Spirit of life, the Holy Spirit). "The flesh" is not at all limited to the physical body. (The NIV has "the sinful nature" instead of "the flesh" throughout Gal. 5:13-25. The Amplified Bible at Gal. 5:16 defines the flesh as "human nature without God.") Often, as here, there is a contrast between "the Spirit" (the Holy Spirit) and "the flesh." The contrast that Paul is concerned with here is not the contrast between our spirit and our body (as some Christians think), but the contrast between the Holy Spirit and man in the flesh.
Last week we looked at two of the cross-references I listed here. We looked at John 6:63 and Rom. 7:5, 6. The next passage I listed is Rom. 8:1-14, and I listed some other verses too. We will just take the time to look at Rom. 8:3, 4 here. Later we will go through Rom. 8:1-14 verse-by-verse. These verses are extremely important. I'm turning to Rom. 8:3, 4; I'm using the NASB, 1995 edition here, which I always use unless I mention otherwise. "For what the Law could not do [Paul was speaking of the Mosaic Law. What was it that the Mosaic Law could not do? It was from God and it was good, but it wasn't designed to dethrone spiritual death and sin and to give people the new birth and victory over sin.], weak as it was through the flesh [The Law could not solve the sin problem for man in the flesh, for man in spiritual death, for man without the Spirit of God, because man in the flesh doesn't have the power to fully keep God's Law. Rather than solve the sin problem, the Law intensified the sin problem in some ways.], God did [How did He do it?]: sending His own Son in the likeness of sinful flesh and as an offering for sin, He condemned sin in the flesh. [Sin, which used to reign over us, has been condemned and dethroned through the atoning death of the Lamb of God. Sin will still reign over us to the extent we allow it to, but sin has no legal right to reign over us now, and as we walk by the Holy Spirit on a continuous basis, according to the terms of the new covenant, we will walk in the righteousness and holiness of God with the victory over all sin.], (4) so that the requirement of the Law might be fulfilled in us, who do not walk according to the flesh, but according to the Spirit." This is the bottom line of Christianity, "so that the requirement of the Law might be fulfilled in us." Instead of breaking God's Law and sinning, now we keep the requirement of His Law in our daily lives as we walk by the Spirit of God, who enables us to walk in the righteousness and holiness of God, with the victory over sin. We are not required to keep the ceremonial law of the Old Testament, but we are required to keep God's moral law in our daily lives. God hates sin, and His moral laws cannot change. Sin goes against God and His divine order. God hates sin. I'll read Rom. 8:4 again: "So that the requirement of the Law might be fulfilled in us, who do not walk according to the flesh, but according to the Spirit [the Holy Spirit]." We fulfill the requirement of God's Law as we walk by the Holy Spirit through faith, having been born again and raised above the realm of the flesh/the old man.
Now I'll turn back to page 197 of my book and go on to the next paragraph. For a Christian to walk according to the flesh is to walk according to the old man, but this ought not (need not) be [[And I listed several verses here. We'll stop to look at a few of them. These verses are quite important. First we'll look at Rom. 6:6, but before I turn there I'll read that last sentence again. "For a Christians to walk according to the flesh is to walk according to the old man, but this ought not (need not) be." Romans 6:6 says, "knowing this, that our old self [I would rather translate "our old man"] knowing this, that our old man was crucified with Him, in order that our body of sin might be done away with [In other words, after we become born-again Christians, we should no longer have a body associated with sin; it should be a body associated with righteousness], so that we would no longer be slaves to sin."
That sounds good, doesn't it? It is good news, very good news! Throughout Romans chapter 6 the apostle Paul repeatedly says that we used to be slaves of sin, but now (through new-covenant salvation, in union with the Lord Jesus Christ) we are slaves of God and of His righteousness. The saving grace of God in Christ enables us to stop sinning. This is a great privilege. We are united with the Lord Jesus Christ in His death, His burial, His resurrection, and in His present life. I'll read Rom. 6:6 one more time, "knowing this, that our old man was crucified with Him, that our body of sin might be done away with, so that we would no longer be slaves to sin." We will go through all of Romans chapter 6, verse-by-verse, when we finish Gal. 5:16-25.
Now we'll look at another verse which demonstrates that born-again Christians are no longer to walk according to the flesh and do the sinful works of the flesh. Let's look at Eph. 4:22. I'll start to read the verse. "In reference to your former manner of life [your life before you became born-again Christians], you lay aside the old man [and then Paul continues, but these are the primary words we need for our present discussion]." For Christians to lay aside the old man once-for-all, and completely, is the same thing as crucifying the old man, which is spoken of in Rom. 6:6, which we just read and in Gal 5:24, for example. As we walk by the Holy Spirit by faith, in accordance with the terms of the new covenant, the old man/the flesh, will not be able to manifest itself in sin.
We'll look at one more verse here, Col. 3:9, which is similar to Eph. 4:22. Colossians 3:9 says, "Do not lie to one another, since you laid aside the old man with its evil practices." Do not lie to one another, or do any other sin, since you laid aside the old man once-for-all, and completely, when you became born-again Christians. In the ideal case we would never sin again after we become born-again Christians. The apostle Paul and other writers of the New Testament repeatedly speak of this glorious ideal. God hates sin, and no true Christians want to sin, so this is very good news. But the New Testament also makes it quite clear that there is intense warfare against us from the world, the flesh/the old man, and the devil and his hosts, and that a victorious walk by faith and by the Holy Spirit is far from being automatic, or always easy.
Now I'll continue to read from page 197 of my book.]] The Christian is to be dead to the old man; he has crucified the flesh (the old man who wants to live in sin) with its passions and desires. Where did I get that? From Gal. 5:24, which we haven't read yet. I'll read Gal. 5:24. "Now those who belong to Christ Jesus have crucified the flesh with its passions and desires." In the ideal case we would crucify the flesh when we become born-again Christians, and we would never sin again. But that doesn't mean that we won't be tempted, or have wrong desires, or that we cannot sin.
The world, the flesh (the old man who wants to live in sin) and the devil and his hosts are waging intense warfare against us. In Gal. 5:17 the apostle makes it clear that born-again Christians can have wrong desires, even strong wrong desires, but that isn't sin. Wrong thoughts and wrong desires are not sin if we resist them by the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit will always give us the power to resist wrong thoughts and desires as we walk after the Spirit on a continuous basis by faith (faith in God and His word, knowing that His Word teaches that victory over sin has been provided in new-covenant salvation).
Christians are to be dead to the flesh/the old man; they have, as Gal. 5:24 says, "crucified the flesh with its passions and desires." The flesh and the old man are equivalent in meaning in verses like Gal. 5:16 and 24. We can speak of the old man being crucified with Christ (see Rom. 6:6, which we read above; also see Gal. 2:20; that is the verse where the apostle Paul said "I have been crucified with Christ....") We can speak of the old man being crucified with Christ, and we can speak of crucifying the flesh. To crucify the flesh and to crucify the old man means the same thing. The only way we can do this is by grace through faith, in accordance with the gospel. The old man, however, will still live and manifest itself in sin to the extent that Christians do not walk by the Spirit on a continuous basis, appropriating God's grace by faith. Only the Holy Spirit has the power to keep the old man/the flesh from manifesting itself in sin.
These things we are talking about are extremely important. A primary reason why the flesh is such a formidable opponent for Christians is that Satan and his horde of demon spirits are very active in the realm of the flesh. Satan is the god of this world (see John 12:31; 16:11; Eph. 2:1; 2 Cor. 4:4). Fallen man could probably sin in all the ways listed in Gal. 5:19-21, where the apostle gives a partial listing of the sinful works of the flesh, without the involvement of demon spirits, but demon spirits work in each of these areas, greatly intensifying the sin problem. This reality makes it all the more necessary for Christians to walk by the Holy Spirit on a continuous basis and to not give the devil any place. Ephesians 4:27 says "and do not give the devil an opportunity." As the margin of the New American Standard Bible shows, a more literal translation would be "place" instead of "opportunity." Don't give the devil any place in you!
Paul wrote these words of Eph. 4:27 in a context of exhorting Christians to walk in righteousness and holiness, having laid aside all sin. In Rom. 13:14 the apostle Paul says, "But put on the Lord Jesus Christ, and make no provision for the flesh in regard to its lusts." Make no provision for the flesh. Don't leave any room for the old man (including the work of demon spirits) to have any place in you. The flesh/the old man hasn't been annihilated yet, and it still wants to manifest itself in sin. The world, the flesh/old man, and the devil and his hosts are against us, but the saving grace of God in Christ is much greater than our opponents.
Let's go on to Gal. 5:17. First I'll read the verse and make some comments; then I'll read part of what I said under Gal. 5:17 in my book. "For the flesh sets its desire against the Spirit [the Holy Spirit; it's very important to see that the apostle is speaking of the Holy Spirit here], and the Spirit against the flesh [The Holy Spirit is always for the righteousness and holiness of God. The flesh/the old man is always for sin.]; for these are in opposition to one another [The verb used here for being in opposition to one another can be used of two armies being arrayed against one another], so that you may not do the things that you please."
Now it is an amazing thing to me, a sad thing, that many Christians (something like one-half of evangelical Christians) think that the apostle Paul was saying in this verse (Gal. 5:17) that we can never quit sinning in this life. I'm totally convinced that they are totally wrong in that interpretation. For one thing, that interpretation contradicts what the apostle Paul just said in Gal. 5:16, not to mention what he said many other places. All of us have the all-too-real potential to misunderstand God's Word. But how sad it is when we think God sent the apostle Paul to teach us that we cannot have the victory over sin in this life. The devil won a mighty victory with that interpretation. Our faith must be based on the Word of God, and we certainly cannot adequately wage warfare against sin if we believe the New Testament teaches that the victory is unattainable. It's no wonder we have problems with sin in the body of Christ.
I'll read Gal. 5:17 again, "For the flesh sets its desire against the Spirit, and the Spirit against the flesh; for these are in opposition to one another, so that you may not do the things that you please." The apostle speaks of warfare between the Spirit and the flesh in this verse, but he certainly doesn't think in terms of the Holy Spirit losing any battles to the flesh. The Spirit of God is well able to win every battle against the world, the flesh/the old man, and the devil and his hosts, and we will always win the battle against sin if we always walk by the Holy Spirit through faith, which we are called, and enabled, to do. Remember what the apostle just said in Gal. 5:16, "But I say, walk by the Spirit and you certainly will not carry out the [sinful] desire of the flesh."
Let's discuss the meaning of the last words of verse 17, "so that you may not do the things that you please." "The things that you please" speaks of the sinful things Christians may be tempted to do. Paul had just spoken of the fact that Christians can have sinful desires with his words at the end of verse 16, where he spoke of the sinful "desire of the flesh/the old man." But Paul made it very clear in verse 16 that new-covenant salvation gives Christians the victory over sin. He showed that Christians are called, and enabled, to always walk by the Holy Spirit, so that they will not carry out the sinful desire of the flesh/the old man. At the end of verse 17, the apostle tells us that we must not yield to the sinful desires of the flesh/the old man that we may have on occasion, since we are engaged in intense warfare with the world, the flesh/old man, and the devil.
The Holy Spirit always makes the victory over sin available, and we appropriate that victory by walking in faith and by the Holy Spirit. Let me repeat an important point, "the things that you please" at the end of verse 17 means the same thing as "the desire of the flesh" at the end of verse 16. The desire of the flesh/the old man is to sin, but the Holy Spirit is always against sin, and He doesn't lose battles to the world, the flesh/old man, or the devil, or anybody else. If we walk by the Spirit by faith (which we are called, and enabled, to do), we will never sin. Now isn't that good news? God hates sin, and He paid an infinite price to set us free from sin and give us the victory over sin.
Now let's consider the wrong interpretation of this verse. They typically assume that verse 17 means something like the following: Intense warfare against us is taking place, with the result that, even though we are born-again Christians and want to do what is right and to not sin, we are not always able to do to good that we want to do. We will necessarily lose quite a few battles and sin. This verse is frequently used by many Christians to try to prove that Christians cannot stop sinning in this life. (Martin Luther and John Calvin, for example, who were both very influential, interpreted Gal. 5:17 that way in their commentaries on Galatians.) I am thankful that I can say with great assurance that they are misunderstanding what the apostle Paul said in Gal. 5:17. As I mentioned, that view contradicts what the apostle just said in verse 16, Walk by the Spirit and you most certainly will not carry out the desire of the flesh, the sinful desire of flesh/old man.
Galatians 5:17 is quite important in that it shows that the victory over sin is not always easy and it certainly is not automatic. And it is important for us to know that sincere dedicated born-again Christians can have wrong thoughts and wrong desires, even strong wrong desires. These things, though undesirable, are not sin if we resist them by the Holy Spirit. Many Christians have gotten discouraged when they found themselves having wrong thoughts and desires, and the devil has convinced some Christians that they must not be true Christians, and he has convinced other Christians that they might as well go ahead and sin since they are already in sin through their wrong thoughts and desires.
I'll read Gal. 5:16, 17 one more time; then I'll read part of what I said on verse 17 in my book. "But I say, walk by the Spirit and you certainly will not carry out the desire of the flesh. For the flesh sets its desire against the Spirit, and the Spirit against the flesh, for these are in opposition to one another, so that you may not do the things [that is, so that you may not do the sinful things] that you please." I'm going to turn to page 198 of my book and read just about all that I said under Gal. 5:17. This is so important, and it is so controversial. As I mentioned, many Christians disagree with what I am saying here. I am not attacking those Christians. Many of them are very sincere, very solid Christians, but I believe they are making a serious mistake here. You need to decide. Does Gal. 5:17 really teach that we cannot have the victory over sin in this life? This is a question of key importance.
First I discussed the meaning of the word "For" at the beginning of verse 17. I said, This conjunction ties verse 17 to verse 16. In verse 17 the apostle expands on the absolute necessity for Christians to walk by the Spirit. To the extent we do not walk by the Spirit, sin (the desire of the flesh of Gal. 5:16) will be the inevitable result. In other words, we will yield to the sinful desire of the flesh, and we will sin; we will do sinful works of the flesh.
We'll discuss the words, "the flesh sets its desire against the Spirit." The Amplified Bible has "For the desires of the flesh are opposed to the Holy Spirit." The NIV has, "For the sinful nature desires what is contrary to the Spirit [the Holy Spirit]." The Greek noun "epithumia," which is the noun translated "desire" in Gal. 5:16, was derived from the verb "epithumeo," which is translated "sets its desire" in Gal. 5:17. As I mentioned under Gal. 5:16, "the desire of the flesh" embraces all sin. All sin is against the Holy Spirit. He is called the Holy Spirit for a reason, and we could also call Him the Righteous Spirit.
We'll discuss the words, "and the Spirit against the flesh." The Holy Spirit is, of course, against all the sinful desires of the flesh. All those who walk by (or, after/in) the Holy Spirit will walk in victory over sin. Is the Holy Spirit able to keep us in the righteousness and holiness of God with the victory over all sin? Is God's saving, sanctifying grace sufficient to enable us to do God's will? There is no doubt about these things, but we must do our part, and faith is our part. We must appropriate God's grace and walk by the Spirit all the time, by faith, in accordance with the gospel. If we don't understand these things and are wavering in faith, wondering whether we can stop sinning, or not, we cannot stop sinning. We need all the grace that God has made available, and to the extent we are wavering in faith, we will be defeated by the world, the flesh, and the devil.
We'll discuss the words, "for these are in opposition to one another." Like two armies, the Spirit and the flesh are arrayed against one another. However, the Spirit of God and the flesh (even when Satan and his evil angels and demons are included as part of the flesh) are not equally powerful contestants. The Spirit of God is well able to overpower the flesh in every encounter. Christians will, therefore, always walk with the victory over sin when they walk by the Spirit. And as I have tried to emphasize, nothing can keep us from always walking by the Holy Spirit through faith. It is the will of God for us to always walk by the Spirit, and we can always walk by the Spirit. This is good news! This is a great privilege! I didn't say, however, that it would always be easy, or fun. Warfare is not easy, or fun, but it comes with the salvation package we signed up for.
We'll discuss the words, "so that you may not do the things that you please." I'm sorry to say that many Christians have understood these words to teach that Christians cannot have the victory over sin during this present life. They understand the apostle to say something like the following: "so that you may not [always] do the [righteous] things that you want to do." In other words, the flesh (the old man) is certain to win some battles. In the light of Gal. 5:16 (also see Gal. 5:24, where the apostle Paul speaks of the fact that Christians have crucified the flesh with its passions and desires), I'm surprised by this interpretation. In Gal. 5:16 the apostle has just exhorted his readers to always walk by the Spirit so that they will not carry out the sinful desire of the flesh, so that they will not do the sinful works of the flesh; so that they will not sin.
The apostle did not write Gal. 5:17 to deny that Christians can always walk in victory over sin. He wrote this verse to emphasize the need for Christians to always walk by the Holy Spirit, since the flesh is an active and formidable opponent. I'm quite sure that the apostle's words mean something like the following: Although you as a sincere Christian may, at times, have desires (even strong desires) to sin (because the flesh has not been annihilated yet), you may not (must not) do the sinful things that you (as far as the flesh/the old man is concerned) may want to do (namely the sinful works of the flesh); the Holy Spirit will always enable you to have victory as you walk by Him (which you are called to do as Christians). "The [sinful] desire of the flesh" of Gal. 5:16 is the equivalent of "the sinful things that you please" of Gal. 5:17. I should mention that sinful desires, though very undesirable, are not in themselves sin or defeat. It's time to stop. We'll come back to Gal. 5:16-25 in the next article. God bless you!
http://www.karlkempteachingministries.com Karl Kemp worked as an engineer in the space field throughout the 60s. He became a born-again Christian in 1964. He received an MA in Biblical Studies in 1972. He has been a Bible teacher for 45 years. See the website for more info on his books, papers, etc.
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The Case For Parking Charges In Ely
Ely Online has been forthright in it's opposure to proposed parking charges for Ely. Recently quoted Philip Eden, Chair of The Ely Perspective who wrote an open letter to the Ely Weekly News.
Here is that letter in full giving ECDC's Ely Transport Strategies case for introducing parking charges:
There has been much coverage of the proposal to introduce charges for parking in Ely. Along with other independent representatives, I sit on the Transport Strategy working group, which is looking at these proposals. The City of Ely Perspective, of which I am chairman, has been working with the district council and others for some time on Ely's Transport Strategy, which is about far more than just car parking. Little has been said about the background to the proposals though, and what they will achieve. Clearly, anyone asked to pay for something previously free is bound to be unhappy. This is totally understandable.
But take a look at some of the issues & facts affecting Ely and its surroundings:
East Cambridgeshire has the fastest growing population in the country.
The population of the parish of Ely alone was some 15,000 in 2001 and is estimated to be 20,000 when current building projects are complete!
In 2001 there were 7,450 cars registered in Ely – If current trends continue there will be 12,100 by 2011!
Added to these figures must be equivalents for the towns and villages around the City, such as Soham and Littleport.
Our car parks are already full to capacity on many days, even on quieter days the long stay car parks are full of vehicles belonging to commuters and those working in Ely well before 8.30am. Cars circulate around the short stay car parks searching for space, often in vain.
Congestion in the city gets worse with some junctions struggling to cope for considerable periods with vehicles searching for parking spilling over.
Visitors including locals who want to stay in excess of 2 or 3 hours are unable to do so in the absence of medium stay car parking.
On street parking in surrounding roads is becoming an increasing problem for residents who have no drives or garages.
Use of public transport into/out of Ely has increased both by bus, and more particularly by rail, the five rail lines out of Ely generating considerable demand from commuters – the rail station car park is full by 7.30am and rail commuters occupy many of the long term spaces in the other car parks and on the streets.
The historic nature of the city does not lend itself to construction of additional car parks in or near the centre; neither does the road infrastructure have much scope for massive increases in traffic volumes.
The same historic base, range of shopping, vibrant street markets & beautiful riverside attract increasing numbers of tourists and visitors from all over.
Bus services in and around the City, whilst relatively efficient and reliable, are the most that can be provided without substantial additional subsidy. Indeed the majority are run totally without subsidy by Stagecoach.
It is clear from the foregoing that doing nothing is causing long term problems
Locals are being deterred from coming into Ely at all as access is becoming more and more difficult.
This in turn is stifling retail trade and thus many service industries, growth will cease and businesses will struggle to maintain their turnover or existence.
Ely will become a less popular destination for tourists and visitors as they too find access difficult and facilities poorer.
Residents close to the centre have increasing difficulty accessing their homes due to uncontrolled on street parking.
Congestion in the central area will approach and reach gridlock.
Short stay parking deters spending by those who wish to stay longer and spend more!
New and potential residents take their business elsewhere from day 1 as a result of poor access.
Employers will find recruitment even more difficult as staff have increasing difficulty accessing their place of work.
People will be increasingly discouraged from using rail services as access to the station becomes more and more difficult…
…and more journeys out of Ely will be made by road, causing yet more congestion on our overcrowded routes.
So what are the solutions proposed?
Build more car parking: The proposal for a park and ride site on Angel Drove is probably the biggest site available in Ely, can be extended, is away from the congested City Centre and overcomes many long stay issues, in particular that of the station. It is convenient for the A10 and A142.
Provide more public transport: The bus link proposed gives frequent access to the station, City Centre and new council offices as well as potentially serving some residential areas of the City offering an alternative to some short journeys made by car and providing for those without their own transport.
Introducing parking charges: This is the only way to ensure car parks and on street parking spaces get optimum use. Parking at the Park and Ride site inclusive of the bus journey, would be cheaper than for long periods nearer the City, ideal for commuters and workers (including a season ticket), thus leaving more spaces in the closer car parks available for short and medium stay and hence higher turnover of spaces. A greater number of users choosing how long they stay can only bring increased business to the city by unlocking the current unmet demand and ensuring the future demand from new residents and visitors is catered for.
Every penny earned from proposed car park charging goes straight back into transport, including running the bus service, operation of the scheme and enforcement. Not a penny goes into the coffers of the District Council and it certainly would not being used for the office relocation. The members of the Council have already fully agreed this.
Some suggest they will go elsewhere for their business but the cost of getting there is not cheap, more than paying a modest charge in Ely. The problems experienced now in Ely are no different anywhere else, and other locations are considering introduction of charges too, but not putting the money back into transport alternatives to manage the demand. The proposed system makes access to Ely easier and less stressful than at present.
Controlled parking zones: Residents close to the City Centre can expect some protection from the growing problem experienced by the overspill from car parks.
Improvements to walking and cycling routes – will encourage more local people to choose alternatives to driving.
Philip Eden
City of Ely Perspective


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Kids Can Shred: Snowboard & Ski Lessons at Cypress Mountain!
- January 2019
Kids Can Shred: Snowboard & Ski Lessons at Cypress Mountain!
"We are so lucky to live in a part of the country where we have such an abundance of opportunity for year-round outdoor activity. My oldest was busy right from day one, and while we have spent countless hours exploring Lower Mainland parks, hiking and biking trails, skiing and snowboarding hasn't happened as often. I've always been a big believer that the younger you teach a child a skill, the easier it is for them to pick up. So with that in mind, this season I enrolled my 9 year old in Cypress Mountain's Raven Riders Snowboard Camp.
One of our team members shared her younger kids' Skooter Camp experience last year, and many of the things she appreciated then are also true for Raven Riders. They are exceptionally organized, making sure everyone knows what to do, from parking to rentals to drop off and more! I felt confident leaving my child with the Cypress Mountain staff, knowing she would be in good hands.............."
Read the rest of their Raven Riders Camp experience here: https://healthyfamilyexpo.com/kids-snowboard-ski-lessons-cypress-mountain/


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Reality Hardcore XXX Galleries 010
Alyssa Lynn
Brooke Tyler
Syren Demer
Amber Bach
Sienna Lopez
Christina Skye
Kali Karinena
Mira Belle
Natalie Lorenz
Rita Daniels
Jessica Torres
Milf Chloe
Alexis Fawz
Bella Roxxx
Breanna and Cassandra
Jade Jameson
Persia Minor
Rachel Steele
Shannon West
Stacie Starr
Tara Holiday
Shelly The Burbank Bomber
Margo Sullivan
Sienna Lopez loves big cocks. She gets turned on by watching Doms monster cock throb and pulsate. She wants to jerk it and she wont stop until she see;s him explode all over himself. She gives him a reach around handjob, while she sucks on her massive all natural boobs. This sets him over the edge and Sienna loves to watch him cum.
Alyssa Lynn is a hot sorority mother who doesn't like young ladies hanging out with boys after dark. Today, she catches Mike sneaking into one of her girls' room and wants to be sure this isn't going to happen again. So, the horny milf gets naked, grabs his cock and starts stroking it for good. Mrs Lynn jerks off that dude and tit-fucks him until he releases all his load for her.
Your step mom is Amber Bach. Your cock pulsates every time you see her in her tight tops. Her gigantic fleshy fun bags make you beat your dick on a daily basis. You pull your cock out in front of her hoping she will take the bait. You get more than you bargained for as she beats your dick mercilessly.
Busty milf Mira Belle is a blonde lady who likes jerking young cocks. This horny mature woman grabs your dick and starts stroking it for good while you are lying on the couch of her living-room, expecting you to explode with cum for her. Mrs Mira Belle keeps jacking you off and isn't going to stop unless you give her some buckets of semen.
Natalie Lorenz is a brunette milf with juicy big tits who loves jerking off young men. The younger the better for this sexy cougar. She coaxes Mike to show her his dick and she proceeds to jerk his large cock until he has no choice but to explode fro her handjob ability..
Syren DeMer is a bona fide handjob slut who tends to gravitate toward hard boners when she spots them which explains why she's drawn to Charlie's dick almost as soon as she walks into her daughter's room. Her daughter isn't around so the gorgeous mature brunette figures no harm, no foul in getting to play with her man's dick as long as it remains a secret between the two of them.
Charlies new step mom Kali Karinena really has taken a liking to the young boy, and she shows him just how much when he gets an erection in front of her. She grips his hard cock, gets naked and spit shines him until he explodes across her sexy face and short hair.
Busty pornstar Rita Daniels is always happy to show her fans how much she appreciates them. While attending the AVN awards she pulls aside a fan and strokes his big cock. Rita Daniels is a true professional MILF cock milker and she makes this guy cum shot hard he almost spurts in his own face.
Jack faces a lack of concentration issue because of his erection which makes it impossible for him to study for the upcoming exam. It seems that Jessica Torres is here to help ut only after teasing him so much his cock twitches in agony.
Christina Skye feels horny today and is about to have some fun with her boyfriend's monster-sized boner. The super hot milf sensually strokes that dude's cock and teases the head with her nails, asking for some hot cum. Eventually, the busty lady makes that dick explode with a massive cumshot.
Perverted MILF Chloe is hungry for young cock and cum and lucky for her, she's got a big-sized dick in her hands with her new step son, just waiting to be milked so the blonde MILF gets comfy on her bed ready to take advantage of the young boy.
When big boob mom Brooke Tyler discovers her step son has been frantically jerking off to her for months now, shes determined to put him at ease by catching him in the act, and finishing the job for him. She makes his dream come true by letting him fuck her monster boobs and shooting his splooge across them.
What is good for dad is good enough for his son, at least that's the message Alexis Fawx seems to be sending here. She's super horny and her step son has a boner that could use some hand treatment so she gets naked for him and then gets down on her knees waxing his knob with her right hand while licking his balls.
Billy is at it again, jacking off his massive cock to his favorite porn mag. But when milf Amber spots him, the drunk mom's pussy starts to throb at the sight of his prick. Amber demands that Billy keep stroking it while she plays with her pussy. After she cums, its Billy's turn and the milf starts to jack off his cock and finally milks him dry. Don't miss this hot mom hand job video!
Joey wants to nut on his girlfriends moms face. So when Mrs. Roxx and he are alone, Joey coaxes her to tug on his cock. To his suprise, Mom has been wishing he would have asked her sooner. The drunk mother strokes his prick until it explodes all over her face. "Don't tell my daughter ok".
Milf Cassandra spots young Joey beating his meat, she loves it when he spurts his load so she decides to give him some help by sucking his cock off. When teen Breanna walks in things get a little nuts. Breanna likes what she see's, and wants to join in. The perverted mom and teen suck and slobber until their faces are blasted.
Mrs. Jameson loves making young guys nut. Ever since her divorce, the perverted mom will stroke any young cock she can get her hands on. When she meets Jonny, she tries to get him back to her place. Mom Jade Jameson spit shines and jacks his cock and begs to be blasted in her face.
Young Billy loves masturbating to his hot milf neighbor Persia Minor. Mrs. Minor knows Billy is beating off to her, and decides to stop by to surprise him. Persia coaxes Billy to keep jerking while she watches. Billy begs for a handjob and titty fuck when Pesia finally agrees to give him a stroke job he will never forget.
Mrs. Rachel Steele catches teen Casey stroking Joey's big boner. Mrs. Steele loves it when Joey's cock get hard, because she gets to milk him dry. There's nothing she like more than to jack off a big hard cock. The perverted MILF and teen stroke his cock giving him one hell of a sexy hand job until they are blasted with salty jizz in this homemade hand job video.
When Mrs. West's' hubby is away she likes to watch the young neighbor Joey masturbate in front of her. This time, the drunk mom wants to jack off his big cock. Young Joey kicks back while Shannon West strokes and jerks feverishly on his prick. Mrs. West wants him to bust his nut all over her face. She gets what she wants with this sexy, mature hand job.
Perverted mom Stacie Starr loves to jack off young guys, especially Billy. His cock is young and hard and when he is caught masturbating, Mrs. Star decides to give him a hand. But when curious teen Kaci catches them, she wants in on the action too. Teen Kaci and Stacie Starr jack off Billy's cock and make it explode with jizz from a hot teen and mom hand job.
When stud Sergio is caught masturbating, Mrs. Tara Holiday is shocked. The cum curious milf scolds Sergio for jacking off his huge cock right in front of her. But the MILF likes what she see's, and agrees to jack off his cock only if he can nut within five-minutes. Sergio's cock explodes on her face and tits. Don't miss this mature hand job video.
This Busty Granny catches Jimmy staring at her whopping 44JJJ tits. She spies his raging boner that needs to be relieved and then sighs, because she knows she has to help him bust his nut. Granny Shelly whips out her massive tits and lets him slide it in and get an amazing titty fuck. She takes his shaft in her mouth and wraps her giant boobs around it before giving him a
mature handjob
When young William sees Mrs. Sullivan, he becomes instantly erect. Seeing how big his buldge is, Margo Sullivan decides to teach him a lesson with a mature hand job. She coaxes him to whip it out. Seeing how big it is, she wants to watch William jack off and bust his nut. Margo gives him one of the greatest hand jobs ever until her juggs are splattered with cum.
When drunk Grandma Trisha accidentally catches teen Autumn jacking off Joey's massive cock, the cum curious Granny wants to get in on the action. She scolds teen Autumn and tells Joey she can make him nut harder. The two perverted babes jack off and spit on his cock giving him a teen and mature hand job until their faces are blasted with salty jizz.
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text:
Most miso pastes contain ethyl alcohol to help preserve them during transport and storage. A Japanese seasoning made from fermented soybeans, miso paste is a mainstay in any Japanese kitchen and used to flavor dishes such as miso soup, spreads and sauces, and pickled vegetables and meats. Easily burnt off through cooking, the alcohol works as a natural preservative to prevent the formation of surface mold on the miso paste and to stop the fermentation process.
Alcohol in Miso Paste
A natural preservative found in both wine and liquor, ethyl alcohol is added to miso paste right before packaging. As the leading preservation method for commercially sold miso paste, ethyl alcohol is allowed to make up 2 percent by weight of the finished product. Along with protecting the quality of the product, alcohol also helps to prevent swelling in the polyethylene bags used to package miso. The alcohol cooks away during food preparation or heating to the boiling point. If you are unable to consume alcohol, shop for Halal versions of miso paste that use other preservation methods, available online and at specialty retailers.
- Ryan McVay/Photodisc/Getty Images


text:
"How long have you been doing this?" "Since I got here." Typical question, very typical answer. Depending upon the event, "Since I got here." could mean 15 minutes ago, or three hours ago. But since the question connotates that "Giggles the Clown" is no novice at balloon twisting or stand-up comedy (she's been performing over 35 years), and if you're the lucky recipient of an intricate "inflation creation", STOP at the answer she gives you & don't ask anything else.....
Just enjoy the witty comeback, because she may presume any other question asked is an invitation to share her heritage from her father, Smokey the Fire Eater (former performer for Ringling Bros., Tom Nix Rodeo & Johnny Jones Peerless Exhibition: opening act for Alice Cooper & the Talking Heads. That's not all; there's more); OR, she'll start rattling off names of WHO'S WHO that she's either worked with, been affiliated with or worked for and the names of her favorite mentors (some famous) that have greatly impacted her life: that's definitely cool because she knows that without any of these people, she wouldn't have a pauper's portion of work or even the slightest knowledge of how to build a funny business that continues to remain fruitful year after year. After all, "There's no business like Show Business"........
...In the Beginning
"Jude, I'm gonna teach you how to perform. I'm gonna teach you how to be a clown".
Those were the words my father said to me as he applied greasepaint to my small face. I was dressing as a clown for my 1st Fall Fantasy parade at Kennywood Park in 1968. I was 7 and he was wise. My father inspired me to circus sawdust dreams, and he spoke vision & purpose into my life. He inspired with such great passion, intense deliberatcy (it's my own word) & a presumed assurance that, eventually, those inspirations would, without a doubt in his mind, produce a talent and confidence in his young performing offspring.
That was my birth into clowning.
I grew up performing. And only one year before that encounter with greasepaint, I had been introduced to the stage by my mother. "Dancing lessons." Said the Doctor. "Get her dancing lessons". Then there I was, a tapper, and ballerina and, well...all that jazz!
Performing in "Show Business" was definitely the road I would travel my entire life, for that was the course my parents set for me. I apprenticed as a clown with my father at Boy Scout & VFW Christmas Parties, more Kennywood Parades & even Hospital Charities. And occasionally my father would take me into a nightclub to perform with him on stage as he ate fire. I remember sitting across the table from him, and I was sipping a Shirley Temple through a straw and asking him, "So, when do I get my $5.00 for being here?"
and Somewhere in-between...
This is me with Ringling Bros. clown, RADAR. This was in 1981 at the Ringling Circus auditions at the Pittsburgh Civic Arena.
After graduating with a BFA from Point Park College in 1983, I worked at Civic Light Opera as the Assistant Stage Manager for the National Touring Company of Jesus Christ Superstar. Tony Geary from General Hospital played Jesus, Barry Dennen who originated the role of Pilate in the movie Jesus Christ Superstar, was Pilate in this stage production, and Carl Anderson (February 27, 1945~February 23, 2004) (I was also his personal assistant), was Judas Iscariot. Carl was also Judas in the movie. I was deeply touched by all of this.
With no real clear vision for my future, I went back to school. After a year at the Art Institute of Pittsburgh, I worked as a freelance commercial artist & designer for various advertising agencies in Pittsburgh. But just like Spring Perennials, as they effortlessly sprout & bloom (because that's just what they do) in their appointed season, so was clowning & performing for me.
...I didn't know where the constant flow of opportunities came from, but I just followed every lead....During my college era I had miscellaneous jobs like: I was the clown on the Gateway Clipper Fleet, I performed at Carnegie Museum and I landed a few mall grand opening gigs with Kathy Svilar, the Shop-n-Save Lady. And even beyond CLO and the Art Institute, the opportunities just steadily kept coming in. Then in the summer of 1996, after a fruitful year & a half as "Giggles the Clown" for Jympin' Jyms Children's Entertainment Center in Moon Township, PA., I landed a career boosting, part time summer gig at Kennywood Park. There yah go...how great is that! What a privilege! And there's even a full page color photo of me in the black MORE KENNYWOOD MEMORIES book. It's 14 years later and I still can't believe that. (SEE BOOK BELOW)
Front cover of the black, More Kennywood Memories book. This photo is also full page in the book.......
to my 18th Year Celebration!
During this year, 2014, I 'll be CELEBRATING my 18th consecutive year in my own "Show Business" biz-ness, "Giggles the Clown". I am truly blessed. I have the greatest job, no, CALLING, in the world. This is my CALLING, my PASSION and my ART. And to anyone who has invited me to share important moments & events in their life,
THANK YOU for letting me serve you! I invite you to view my website. There is even a page with pictures of my father, SMOKEY the FIRE EATER and a page of my friends services. I hope 2011 brings you great things & inspires you to... E.xperience the Fun!
For over 3 decades "Giggles the Clown" has entertained tens of thousands of people with her CRAZY, ZANY &
KOOKY antics! Her comedic personality blended with her expertise in BALLOON
twisting,,,FUN face-painting, silly juggling
& choreographed Goofy Magic Shows" charm & fascinate her audiences. Giggles the Clown"
would L♥ve to entertain your audience @ your Special Events...making it
possible for everyone to...
Experience the Fun!
Hey, you can also find me as
"Judith, the Balloon Artiste'"
@ www.allaboutyouballoons.com
(I call it "Phobia Free Entertainment")
BIRTHDAY PARTIES & balloon deliveries; Graduation Parties & Anniversaries. Nursing Homes & Hospital Visits, Purim Events & Bat~Bar mitzvahs Fairs & Festivals & Amusement Parks; Company Picnics & Parties on the block. Church Programs & Community
EVENTS..........Car cruises & Summer camps.. Baptism Parties & Baby Showers, Charities & Malls & "Whatever" Fund Raisers. After Proms ♥ Dances & SKATING Parties, too. Communions, Reunions &
Programs at School.
Restaurants, Scouting Events & Re or Grand Openings.Day Care Centers, Rehearsal Dinners & Any Holiday Things: JULY 4th Picnics & LABOR DAY affairs; Halloween Festivities & Parties for New Years! VALENTINES ♥♥♥ DAY & Easter Egg Hunts Christmas Office Parties & Hanukah! & any other Special Event you can think of!
(and even Funeral Wakes)


text:
from Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License.
- noun Alternative spelling of
- noun Scotland, New Zealand A style of
flat captraditionally made from woolcommon with farmers and country gentlemen in cool climates.
Sorry, no etymologies found.
The 'bunnet', the Scots word for bonnet, has proved to be his lucky charm ever since he nicked it off Giggs way back in November 1996.
It's Gordon Brown that RBS has to be thankful for, it's Alistair Darling that First Minister Salmond has to go bunnet-in hand to, and it's all those Scots before them – Robin Cook, Malcolm Rifkind, George Younger – that ran England before them.
So go on, sit there, tell yourself you were right, that thon bee in your bunnet about it being the priest is the only possibility.
Melanie Phillips, and lots of others, have a "bee in their bunnet" about MMR vaccine and no amount of evidence will convince them otherwise.
On Thursday, the Legg report will be published along with...
Now do let me take off your bunnet, and make yourself easy.
"Only get a different bunnet --" he waved Louisa's from the peg on the hall rack, Felicia didn't mind in the least, she was mouthing this new phrase "Joy-ride," it sounded delightful.
The linin 'was pea-green; and I've often thought since it was a leetle too fine for the tother part, which was seal-skin, and wore tolerable bare, -- I havin' wore it, not off and on, but steady on, from the time I left off my bunnet that was made of the end of my cradle-quilt; but I didn't calculate it was too fine then, and
There's no accoontin 'for tastes; clap a bunnet on a tawtie-bogle, wi' a cock to the ae side that's kin 'o' knowin ', and ony woman'll jump at his neck, though ye micht pap peas through the place whaur his wame should be.
One woman says Elmira orter have a cup o 'tea, which she'll lay off her bunnet and go to the kitchen and make it fur her.
They was a black plume on her bunnet which nodded the same as on a hearse, and she was into and out of seven front yards in five minutes.


text:
On March 10 I went on the hunt for the Pan-STARRS comet. News reports and science websites said that the comet would be visible to the naked eye near the western horizon just after sundown during several days around the middle of the month.
I went out to Buckley Cove Park overlooking the deep water channel. I parked, set up my camera on a tripod, and waited for the sun to set. The park gives a fairly unfettered view of the western sky, and I thought it would be a good vantage point to get my shot. Not exactly sure of where in the west the comet would be, I scanned the horizon back and forth. The sun sank below the horizon, and the colors of the sky slowly turned to and orangish glow.
Although the sky above Stockton was clear, a thin veil of clouds obscured the horizon, and the chances of getting a clear view of the comet, much less a picture of it, were dwindling.
Then I saw a tiny pinprick of light appear, and my hopes picked up. It looked a bit higher in the sky than what the reports said, and it seemed to be rising rather than setting, which the stories I read said it would do. Soon I realized it was moving a bit too fast, as well. It was some sort of high-altitude aircraft — or an alien spaceship, if you're into that kind of thing. But it certainly was not a comet.
A few others were out hoping to get a peek at the comet, but the heavens grew dark with no celestial sightings, so most gave up and drove away. I, too, packed up my camera and tripod and left a little disappointed, but I knew there would be a few other chances to get a shot
On March 11, I took my 15-year-old son for an evening basketball practice, so I made sure I had my equipment with me so that I could shoot the comet afterward. The practice went long, and by the time we got out, it was too late to get a shot. Besides, once again clouds obscured the horizon. But the next night was supposed to have the potential for even better photos. A thin crescent moon was to appear near the comet, making for a dual celestial photo.
March 12 was to be the best opportunity to shoot the comet. It was supposed to appear, once again, relatively low on the horizon, fairly near that thin crescent moon.
It was clear most of the day, which raised my hopes for a good comet picture. But by the late afternoon/early evening, the clouds again scattered across the horizon. To minimize light pollution that might obscure the night sky, my 17-year-old daughter and I went to the Stone Lake Wildlife Refugee and parked at the dead end of a street near Elk Grove.
There were already several other people there as the sun set and the sky turned a fiery orange. A while later, a large flock of honking geese took flight and filled the sky as it turned to hues of pink and purple.
As the sky darkened, the clouds still lingered, and my hopes of getting a shot of the comet were beginning to fade. Then the crescent moon descended from a bank of clouds into an open horizontal sliver of sky. News reports said that the comet would be visible to the naked eye and appear to the left of the moon. Perhaps my eyes were too naked, but I could not see it. I could make out a high-altitude airplane's lights blinking on and off as it passed in front of the moon, but no comet. I asked my daughter if she could see it with her fresh 17-year-old's eyes, but she could not find it, either. Then I heard a guy next to me fire off a few frames of his camera. He "chimped" the picture on the monitor of his digital camera and showed his companion. I looked over their shoulders and saw indeed that he did get a shot of the comet, which was kind of a dim hazy dot. I looked back up but still couldn't see it. The moon was beginning to sink below more clouds with no other open areas of sky so I "guesstimated" where the comet was and decided to fire off a few shots in the dark.
I reviewed the photo but still couldn't see it until I used the monitor's zoom function. There it was, a faint smudgy dot. I shot off a few more frames and then both comet and moon left the clear patch of sky and disappeared behind the clouds.
This November, the Comet ISON is set to appear in the skies. It is expected to be extremely bright (brighter than the moon at some points, it is believed) and visible to the naked eye. Hopefully there will be clear skies for the next comet hunt.