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Paul Mobley is the quintessential portrait photographer. As much a director as a photographer, his ability to forge quick connections with his clients and put them at ease creates the possibility for strikingly intimate images. His years of experience photographing everyone from Amy Schumer to Zac Brown, combined with his contagious enthusiasm and willingness to take risks, allow him to approach each shoot with a confidence that leads to a fresh, unique portrait of the subject. Whether it's a celebrity promoting his or her latest project or a 100-year- old farmer celebrating his family's legacy, Mobley approaches his work the same way—he aims to capture the soul of the subject and present a compelling portrait that is authentic and timeless.
In addition to his corporate, advertising, and editorial work, Mobley has published four books of his photography with Welcome Books: American Farmer (2008), Everyday Heroes (2012), If I Live to Be 100 (2016), and American Firefighter (2017). For all four books, Mobley traveled around the country to meet the subjects in their hometowns and photograph these ordinary citizens leading their extraordinary lives. Mobley has also put together a traveling exhibition of his American Farmer photographs that will tour museums and colleges around the United States until 2022.
Mobley splits his time between New York and Los Angeles and lives with his wife, Suzanne, and their rescued shar-pei, Jessie. They have two daughters, Camden and Paige. In his spare time, he loves traveling, especially in Mexico; sampling tequila; and visiting Michigan to eat his mother's Italian cooking.


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Bid History for 2014 Mack LEU600 Refuse Truck Side Load
Auction Start Date: 09/15/20 3:00 PM ET
Auction End Date: 09/30/20 9:54 PM ET
Asset ID: 114 Number of Bids: 29
Loading bid history...
|2014 Mack LEU600 Refuse Truck Side Load
|Auction Closed
|High Bidder:
|Sold Amount:
|Admin Fee ( 7.50% ):
|Total Price:
|View Bid History
|Terms and Conditions
2014 Mack LEU600 TILT TANDEM.
Asset 8643 - 2014 Mack LEU613 Refuse Truck Side Load
Mileage – 58,800 Hours – 10,049
Vin# 1M2AU04C1EM007984
Body - Labrie Automated Arm, side Loader, Serial # EX 13115VEI
Engine - MR 7 – 375
Transmission - Allison 6 Speed Auto
Maintenance schedule - Every 300 HRS
Reason for being auctioned – Scheduled for replacement
Removed from service – 11/1/2019
Condition – Used. Everything was working properly when taken out of service and parked.
|Questions and Answers
|There are currently no questions posted for this asset.
|As Is Sale - All items are sold in untested "as is" and "where is" condition and must be removed at Buyer's risk and expense. The City of Ann Arbor (Seller) makes no warranty, guaranty or representation of any kind, expressed or implied, as to the merchantability or fitness for any purpose of the property offered for sale. Any claim of error in the description must be made prior to removal of the property. If the City confirms that the property does not conform to the description, the City will keep the property and refund any money paid. The liability of City of Ann Arbor shall not exceed the actual purchase price of the property. The Buyer is not entitled to any payment for loss of profit or any other money damages; special, direct, indirect, or consequential. Upon removal of the property, all sales are final. No refunds of any kind will be given. Business hours are 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. (EST), Monday through Friday, excluding legal holidays. Sales that close after business hours will be responded to on the following business day.
Fees, Payments and Deposits - Payment in full is due not later than three (3) business days from the time and date of the winning bid. Payment for property must be made in the form of Certified Cashiers Check, Money Order or Cash. Checks shall be made payable to the City of Ann Arbor, 301 E. Huron St., Ann Arbor, MI 48104.
Payment will include cost of listing items on GovDeals which is a minimum of $5.00 or 7.5% of the bid price. The amount of payment will be the winning bid plus a minimum of $5.00 or 7.5% of the bid price.
When the purchase price (of a single item or the aggregate purchase price of multiple items) totals $5,000 or greater, the City may require a down payment from the winning Buyer. This non-refundable fee will be 20% of the total purchase price. When the City exercises this option, the Buyer will have 48-hours from the time of the winning bid to comply with this requirement. If Buyer fails to comply with this requirement within the stated time frame, the City can declare Buyer in default. If Buyer is in default, City may negotiate with next closest bidder, re- list at another auction and/or pursue all legal proceedings. All monies collected in escrow, will be deducted from total monies due at time of final payment. Sales and Use Tax - All items for sale are subject to all applicable Michigan Sales Tax in accordance with Michigan Sales Tax Act, (P.A. 167 of 1933, as amended). If business or government entity is tax exempt, you must submit a Michigan Sales and Use Tax Exemption document at the time of bid. Buyers are responsible for contacting the appropriate tax office, completing any forms, and paying any taxes that may be imposed.
|Additional Fees
Pick-up of all auction property - A successful Buyer must make arrangements to pick up items at the location noted on the Item Detail which may be at various City-owned locations. Buyers will be provided with exact pick- up location information. All items must be removed within three (3) days from the time and date of the winning bid or an agreed upon time and date by the City as listed in the Item Detail. Successful Buyers are responsible for loading and removal and any and all property awarded to them from the place where the property is located as indicated on the Item Detail. The Buyer will make all arrangements and perform all work necessary, including packing, loading and transportation of the property. Under no circumstances will the City of Ann Arbor assume responsibility for packing, loading or shipping. If Buyer fails to remove the sale item(s) from its stated location by the date and time for removal listed all rights to the said auction item(s) will be forfeited, and the item(s) will remain the property of the City of Ann Arbor and may be resold. A daily storage fee of $10.00 may be charged for any item not removed within the time frame allowed.
|Special Instructions
|As a buyer, you agree to accept responsibility for reviewing and understanding all applicable laws and regulations cited in these Terms and Conditions You may not bid on an item on this Site if you are not able to form a legally binding contract, are under the age of 18, or temporarily or indefinitely suspended from the site by the City. You must be a person, business or government entity with an email address that can enter into legally binding contracts under applicable law. You agree you will not commit to purchasing an item by winning the item, without the intention of paying for it, in full. If an individual, Buyer warrants that he/she is not a full-time, part- time, of the City of Ann Arbor, a member of such an employee's immediate family, or acting on the employee's behalf. If a business, Buyer warrants that it is not acting on the behalf of any employee of the City of Ann Arbor. The list of material offered for sale and its description has been compiled from available data, but there is no guarantee or warranty on the part of the City of Ann Arbor relative to quantity, kind, character, description, condition and/or suitability for use for which it may be desired by the Buyer, or in any other respect whatsoever. Sanctions - Bidders may be barred from participating in City of Ann Arbor sales for any of the following: 1) failure to observe the terms and conditions of sale; or 2) failure to claim purchases. THE CITY OF ANN ARBOR RESERVES THE RIGHT TO WITHDRAW ANY ITEM FROM AUCTION OR AT ITS ABSOLUTE DISCRETION TO REJECT ANY AND ALL BIDS CONSIDERED, AS NOT IN ITS BEST INTEREST.

subset: commoncrawl


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When the tech bubble burst in the fall of 2001, RBB Systems faced urgent, intense financial challenges. Virtually overnight, demand from its largest customer plunged 90 percent. Bruce Hendrick was asked to step in as president to help the company out of a dire situation.
Committed, but not without apprehension, Hendrick accepted the challenge and bought in to the company. Hendrick quickly stabilized the situation by reassuring creditors through a focus on quality and service to customers. And it worked — RBB slowly but steadily recovered its financial footing, attracting new customers and serving the existing base well.
However, by 2005, RBB's growth had begun to stall and Hendrick, now president and CEO, concluded that the company's all-inclusive business model may be the culprit.
In the summer of 2007, Hendrick made a bold decision: RBB would henceforth focus exclusively on small batches of custom electronic assemblies and the company would no longer provide the systems integration and design services it was founded on.
Hendrick committed RBB to transform itself from a contract manufacturing "one-stop shop" into a laser-focused offering that satisfied a very specific market need. As many entrepreneurs attest, the decision to claim a niche is easy. The tough part is delivering on that vision. Dramatic changes were required to optimize the operation around small batches and Hendrick brought in experts in lean manufacturing techniques to help in the effort.
In short order, costs came down, capacity was uncovered, responsiveness was improved and competitiveness jumped. Today, RBB's uniqueness is clear and the company's boldness has paid off.
How to reach: RBB Systems, (330) 567-2906 or www.rbbsystems.com


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What you need to know about the new and improved MicroStrategy Dossier
Have you ever been in a time crunch and need a quick visual to show the boss but have no time to generate it? Think again. With MicroStrategy's Dossier, making quick, on-the-fly visuals is easier than ever.
What's in a Dossier?
Released in the 10.9 and with MicroStrategy 2019 updates, the MicroStrategy Dossier makes forming visuals and stories a collaborative experience. Think of Dossiers as a dry erase board. You can be agile as well as interactive and find unexpected results in your data; Deliver quick stories to leadership committees, or perform deep data discovery on the fly.
And, you can try out new visuals, make quick changes, and not worry about messing up a crucial standardized report. Although Dossiers do not replace the full functionality offered by the advanced dashboards, they provide an ad-hoc data experience to your storyboarding and visual insights.
With that being said, here are some of the cool features a MicroStrategy Dossier offers:
Interactive and minimal user interface makes it easy for any end user, regardless of skillset, to build powerful analytical insight:
- Ability to add a dossier to your MicroStrategy Library and edit filters to your preferences and share with coworkers (including sharing your own filter preferences!).
- Comment, annotate, highlight, and collaborate with your coworkers on shared dossiers in real-time.
- The new visual targeting feature makes selecting targets fast and user-friendly.
Add visualizations to filters panel.
Use Natural Language Query (NLQ) to automatically build dossiers and get insights by asking questions like "What are the total sales"?
Use the Story Experience with chapters and pages to build a case for your data:
- The Data Wrangling feature allows you to add your own data, manipulate it, and turn it into insightful visuals.
Responsive design automatically fits web, tablet, or mobile screens.
Dossiers remember the last viewed page or state of a dossier and filters selected with personalized views.
Document versus a Dossier?
- Real time comments and annotations
- MicroStrategy Library Integration with collaboration and filtering capabilities
- Data Wrangling Feature
- Intuitive Visualizations
- Natural Language Query
- D3 Visualizations (import community visualizations from libraries)
- Storytelling Feature
Document (Advanced Dashboard):
- Pixel Perfect
- Extensive Data Modeling
- Transaction Services (can write directly to database)
- Information Windows
- Formatting Consistency
- MicroStrategy Library Integration with collaboration, but no filtering capabilities
Long Story Short
Use a dossier if you are not a highly technical user: you can bring your own data, it's not highly technical, it's user friendly, and incorporates intuitive visualizations. Plus, it's great to use for data discovery. Use documents if you need a logical data model and pixel perfection, as well as any standardized reporting.
There's more to explore at Smartbridge.com!
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After teetering between Valley venues for years,Stateside Presents
announced this morning that it finally has a spot to call its own.
Downtown's Crescent Ballroom, as we speculated earlier this month, will open sometime in October, says Charlie Levy, owner of the local promotion company. And, yeah, we totally nailed the location, which will be at 308 North Second Avenue in the heart of downtown Phoenix -- not at an outlying Sheraton Hotel, as some websites have listed.
"[Opening a venue is] something I've always wanted to do, but it had to be the right situation," Levy says.
Stateside purchased the historic building, erected in 1917, just a few months ago. Renovations to renew its old-timey charm are currently under way as crews strip the paint and old sheetrock that cover Levy's vision of an authentically Phoenix venue.
As we reported before, Crescent will host The Album Leaf, St. Vincent, CSS, Gang Gang Dance and more in October. Levy says he's most excited about a lineup of shows that is yet to be announced.
Larger than Rhythm Room and smaller than Marquee Theatre, Crescent Ballroom seems to fill a gap in the Valley music scene. Bands that quickly sell out Rhythm Room, as Black Lips did in June, might find Crescent Ballroom a better fit, expanding ticket sales while maintaining an intimate vibe.
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Though right now the venue's lineup seems indie-centric, Levy is looking to expand.
"I'm going to look at every kind of music that's good music," he says, adding that he'd like to see blues, country western, and other genres mixed into the schedule. "Once we're open and get more established, I think we'll be able to attract more musicians."
Along with the venue, Crescent Ballroom will also house a lounge with food, drinks, no cover, and a small stage where acoustic bands, DJs, and other artists can play on a nightly basis, open at 4 p.m. everyday.
"I'm pretty excited about the whole thing," Levy says. "The bottom line is we're just going to try hard, give it 110 percent. We want a place where people want to see bands and are comfortable, and where bands want to play. Hopefully with a little hard work and luck we'll succeed."


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"Singing with me is all about finding your individual voice. Doesn't matter the genre -I'm passionate about killer vocals, original music, and authenticity!"
Whitney Nichole
Founder & Lead Vocal Coach
Whitney is incredibly passionate about sharing her love of songwriting, singing and sharing the magic of expressing and creating music with others. She and her husband Niall David opened Songbird Studios in 2008, and what began as a small, two-person operation has now grown into the leading studio for Vocal Coaching in Northern California. Having recently opened their third studio location in San Francisco, Songbird Studios currently boasts an incredibly talented staff of 20+ Vocal Coaches and Administrative Staff with over 425 student singers.
Singing and performing her entire life, Whitney has played live shows around the world, touring solo, with her band, and with collegiate a cappella groups while attending Yale College during her undergraduate years.
Whitney has self released multiple projects, most notably her debut full length album 100 Strong, as well as a holiday EP "It's Christmas," and an electronic-infused EP. Whitney's songs have been placed in TV & Film, and have won a variety of songwriting competitions, including an honorable mention for her song "Hard Enough" in the West Coast Songwriters International Song Competition.
In addition to being the Owner and CEO of Songbird Studios, Whitney is also the creator of the Singing / Straw, Chairperson of Vocology in Practice – ViP (a global network of the world's leading voice professionals, including singing teachers, vocal coaches and voice professionals on the forefront of vocal health, science and pedagogy), and an active voting member of PAVA, the Pan American Vocology Association.
Hometown: Redding, CA


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It might get chilly and wet this weekend, so what better way to pass the time with the kids then to make rice krispies treats! This is a twist on a classic recipe as it becomes almost a grown-up indulgence but kids will still love it no worries!
Start by toasting the coconut over high to medium heat in a dry pan, stir until golden and remove from pan to cool and stop browning process. In a big pot over medium heat, melt butter until bubbles subsides and butter becomes a golden brown color. Scrape seeds from vanilla bean and add to butter, whisking so that they are evenly distributed throughout the butter.
Add the marshmallows to the butter and stir until melted. Off the heat, add the rice krispies and the toasted coconut and stir until well combined with the marshmallows. Add to a buttered baking dish and flatten out so that it is even.
Make sure to work quickly once adding the rice krispies as it sets fast. Another little trick to even out the mixture into the pan is to use a spoon that was dipped in very cold water and dried off. Do this a few times until you've pressed all the rice krispies evenly.
A couple of hours later, dig in!!!!
- 6 cups of rice krispies
- 1 bag (10 ounce) of marshmallows
- 1 cup of unsweetened shredded toasted coconut
- 1/2 cup (1 stick) of salted butter
- 1 vanilla bean


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InSync – Proud Technical Partner of Kiddathon Kolkata, 2015
Cancer being one of the most common causes of death among children is a serious threat to the society. Most of the children suffering from cancer die due to lack of proper treatment, care and awareness. Calcutta Central Ladies Circle 27 (CCLC) has focused on the mission of enhancing the lives of children and their families affected by childhood cancer (which prevents children to live their 'childhood') by providing them programs for recreation, education and support.
In order to raise fund for this noble cause CCLC has organized KIDDATHON, 2015 at Kolkata on 6th December, 2015 at SAI Sports Complex, Salt Lake.
Calcutta Central Ladies Circle 27 is working to improve the state of these kids and to empower them by making sure that they get proper treatment and the society is well aware of the causes and prevention of the same.
InSync is the Technology Partner for Kiddathon 2015 event and is honored to be associated with the event to serve a noble cause for the wellness of children suffering from cancer. We believe that a society with proper awareness can be more secure from such life threatening illness. We are working towards spreading awareness about the event and to make sure that the maximum number of people come forward and join hands for the cause.
Be a part of Kiddathon, 2015:[button link="http://www.meraevents.com/event/kiddathon-2015″ size="small, medium, large" target="_blank or _self" icon="cog" color="white, yellow, orange, red, blue, green, gray, black, alternative-1, alternative-2, alternative-3″ lightbox="true or false"]Register Now[/button]


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Информация о запрашиваемом финансировании
How We Handle Your Personal Information
Personal information provided on the inquiry form will be handled as follows.
Use of Personal Information
Personal information provided by you will be responsibly managed by Finaam and only used to reply/respond to your inquiry. We will never use your personal information for any other purpose without your consent.
Privacy Policy
Finaam respects your privacy. We are committed to ensuring that your personal information is handled and managed properly according to this privacy policy.
1. Use of Personal Information
We may use your personal information that has been collected in a legal and fair manner for any of the following purposes in the course of our operations:
a. To provide our products and services or information about our products and services.
b. To develop products and services.
c. To purchase raw materials, products and services.
d. To respond to your inquiries.
e. Any other purposes necessary to operate our business.
2. Management of Personal Information
Your personal information is managed in accordance with our internal rules and regulations under the supervision of our appointed Chief Privacy Officer. We also take information systems security measures in order to prevent unauthorized disclosure of your personal information.
3. Providing Third Parties with Personal Information
We will not provide any third party with your personal information without obtaining your prior consent unless otherwise required by relevant laws and regulations.
4. Disclosure of Personal Information
We will immediately disclose, correct, stop using, or delete your personal information upon request in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.
5. The Scope of Our Business
1. The design, construction, manufacture, installation, repair, dismantling, sale and leasing of these products and parts:
a. Commercial and naval vessels and maritime application equipment
b. Aircraft, space systems and missiles
c. Rolling stock and motor vehicles
d. Prime movers
e. Industrial equipment
f. Machinery
g. Steel structures and tanks
h. Defense weaponry
i. Cast and forged metal products
j. Metals, synthetic resins, ceramics, composite materials and their processed products
2. Civil engineering and related businesses
3. Design and supervision for construction work
4. Businesses relating to power and heat supply
5. Businesses relating to refuse and industrial waste treatment
6. Engineering, consulting and technical assistance as required by businesses mentioned in the previous clauses
7. Sale, lease and management of real estate
8. Development and sale of computer software and hardware
9. Businesses relating to information processing and communication
10. Businesses relating to shipping and sea rescue
11. Businesses using aircraft
12. Businesses incidental or relating to those items mentioned in the previous clauses


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Career Gnome - Fisherman Gnome 0199
A bad day fishing is better than a good day of work! If you know of a man who loves to fish, this gnome is for him! He has his rod and a fish!
This gnome is made and ready to ship! The fisherman gnome measures approximately 2 inches tall (including fishing pole) and 1 inches wide. He is made as a shelf sitter, but you can request him to be a plant poke or ornament by leaving a note at checkout for no extra charge - see below
Shelf sitters have a flat bottom and will sit on their own.
Plant Pokes, have a small hole in the bottom for a toothpick to be inserted to help them stand in soil.
Ornaments have a loop added to the top.
Your gnome will be shipped in 1-3 business days after you order (shipping Monday-Thursday).
Polymer clay figures can go indoors or outdoors, but please know that direct sunlight and moisture tend to darken the clay. To keep them looking their best use them inside and out of the elements.
Polymer clay items are cute, but they are not toys. Please treat them as you would any ceramic figurine.
Figures can get wet but prolonged submersion in water is not recommend. Not made for fish tanks or aquariums.
If you would like to sneak a peak for other items I am making, you can view them on my instagram page: https://instagram.com/thepebblepathway/
or on the blog: http://thepebblepathway.blogspot.com/
To see other Fairy Garden Accessories click here
To see our collection of handmade and hand sculpted fairy houses click here


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Make the Journey Home for Homecoming 2016
Friday, September 16, 2016
Alumni Awards Ceremony & Luncheon
12:30 p.m. | Edgerton Center for the Performing Arts | $50 recommended donation
Join us as we recognize accomplished and deserving alumni for their contributions to their careers, communities and Sacred Heart. Full list of 2016 Alumni Award honorees coming soon!
Alumni Association Board of Directors Meeting
3 p.m. | Martire Business & Communications Center | For current directors and invited guests
Alumni Association Board of Directors meeting for current directors and guests.
Pints with Professors
5 p.m. | Red's Pub | Complimentary
Join us for happy hour with your favorite SHU professors and staff members at Red's, our on-campus pub. Reconnect prior to the evening's Movie Night on the Quad.
Social Work Alumni Gathering @ Pints with Professors, hosted by the Social Work Department
5PM | Red's Pub | Complimentary
Join the Social Work Department and alumni in Red's, our on-campus pub, for happy hour.
Orientation Leader Reunion
7 p.m. | Red's Pub | Complimentary
Hosted by the Student Life Department. Join Student Life staff and fellow Orientation Leader alumni for a reunion at Red's!
Movie Night on the Quad: Star Wars – The Force Awakens
7 p.m. | Quad | Donations welcome*
Sacred Heart University celebrates Homecoming Weekend with Movie Night on the Quad. All are welcome! Bring your chairs and blankets; we'll provide the ice cream and popcorn. Pre-registration is required. *The Alumni Association is pleased to underwrite the cost of this event. In an effort to strengthen University scholarship opportunities, we ask registrants to make a contribution to the Alumni Association Endowed Scholarship.
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Golden Pioneer Brunch: Celebrating the class of 1967
11 a.m. | Hearth Room | For members of the class of 1967 and significant others
A special brunch to celebrate the first 50th anniversary class in Sacred Heart history.
Residential Life Reunion
Noon | Jorge Bergoglio Hall | Complimentary
Hosted by Residential Life. Join fellow Res Life alumni for a reunion at the new Jorge Bergoglio Hall prior to the football game. There will be refreshments, tours of the new residence hall and an informal presentation.
Pioneer Club Luncheon
2 p.m. | Hearth Room | By Invitation Only
Hosted by the Pioneer Club and Athletics. Join athletics staff, coaches and alumni for a pre-game gathering. Contact Pioneer Club Coordinator Kylie Martin at firstname.lastname@example.com or 203-365-8101 with any questions.
Alumni Author Spotlight
2 p.m. | Ryan Matura Library | Complimentary
Hosted by the SHU Alumni Association. Our alumni author joins us for a children's book signing and reading. Copies of the book will be available for little Pioneers.
Homecoming Chili Cook-Off, Hosted by the Physical Therapy Department
2:30 p.m. | Edgerton Art Gallery & Courtyard | Complimentary
All are invited to help kick off the 20th anniversary of the College of Health Professions, hosted by the Physical Therapy Department. Come sample the wide variety of dishes and vote for your favorite faculty- and staff-prepared chili!
Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement Alumni Homecoming Reunion
3 p.m. | University Commons Lobby and Patio | Complimentary
Hosted by the Criminal Justice Department. Join fellow criminal justice and law enforcement alumni for a reunion prior to the football game.
Homecoming Football Game | SHU Takes on Marist
4 p.m.| Campus Field | $20 per Attendee | $10 per Child (Under 18)
Cheer on Pioneer Football as the team takes on Marist College. Big Red's Family BBQ and Beer Garden opens at 4 p.m. with food and fun for Pioneers of all ages. Face painting, sports inflatable and all children's activities are sponsored by SHU's Student Alumni Association. Immediately following the game, alumni are invited to the official post-game party at Red's*, which will open promptly at 8 p.m. Attendees must have purchased this package to enter Red's on Saturday, Sept. 17. A portion of the registration fee will benefit Sacred Heart's Alumni Association Endowed Scholarship. *No one under the age of 21 will be allowed to enter.
Package includes:
- Alumni End Zone Game Ticket for SHU v. Marist
- Entrance into Big Red's Family BBQ and Beer Garden
- One complimentary adult beverage
- Unlimited food & family beverages
- Entrance to Red's for After-the-Win Party *Until capacity is met!
After-the-Win Party at Red's
8 p.m. | Red's | Access only with purchase of SHU Takes on Marist Package
Immediately following the SHU v. Marist football game, alumni who attended the game are invited to the official post-game party at Red's*, which will open promptly at 8 p.m. Attendees must have purchased the SHU Takes on Marist & After-the-Win Party at Red's package to enter Red's on Saturday, Sept. 17. No one under the age of 21 will be allowed to enter Red's. *Until Capacity is met
Class of 2006 Reunion
8 p.m. | Edgerton Art Gallery & Courtyard | Suggested donation toward class of 2006 gift required
Join fellow classmates and friends to celebrate the 10th reunion year of the class of 2006!
Sunday, September 18, 2016
Mass of Alumni Remembrance
Noon| Chapel of the Holy Spirit
Father Bruce Roby will preside over Mass for alumni, families and friends. We will honor and remember our deceased alumni. All are welcome to prayer.
To register for any or all of these events, click here.


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On Wednesday night, Paul Ryan gave his Republican National Committee acceptance speech. And it wasn't long before the "news" media came forth with the big lies he told. Five huge lies that make Paul Ryan a dishonest scumbag.
Except they weren't lies. Instead, what we have is dishonest spin from the media being parroted over and over again. Apparently the hope is that if Paul Ryan is called a liar often enough, people will believe it, regardless of the truth.
So let's go through these alleged lies.
A lot of guys I went to high school with worked at that GM plant. Right there at that plant, candidate Obama said: "I believe that if our government is there to support you. this plant will be here for another hundred years." That's what he said in 2008.
Well, as it turned out, that plant didn't last another year. It is locked up and empty to this day. And that's how it is in so many towns today, where the recovery that was promised is nowhere in sight.
Faulted Obama for failing to deliver a 2008 campaign promise to keep a Wisconsin plant open. It closed less than a month before Obama took office.
The media obviously mischaracterized what Ryan actually said. He quoted Obama's statement that government support would keep the plant open. And the fact is that the plant is closed. Government support of GM did not stop that plan from closing, and there is no hope of the plant re-opening. Ryan went on to talk about the failure of government spending, and the fact that it hasn't brought about economic recovery. Ryan's point was clear, and nothing in it was a lie.
UPDATE: And the plant actually closed after Obama took office, not before.
[Stimulus funds] went to companies like Solyndra, with their gold-plated connections, subsidized jobs, and make-believe markets. The stimulus was a case of political patronage, corporate welfare, and cronyism at their worst. You, the working men and women of this country, were cut out of the deal.
What did the taxpayers get out of the Obama stimulus? More debt. That money wasn't just spent and wasted— it was borrowed, spent, and wasted.
Claimed the American people were "cut out" of stimulus spending. Actually, more than a quarter of all stimulus dollars went for tax relief for workers.
The vast majority of the stimulus spending went to corporate interests. Yes, workers got something in the deal. But it was very little in comparison to what was handed to undeserving corporations and special interests. It is clear that Ryan was saying that the stimulus was a bad deal for the average American, and that is true.
You see, even with all the hidden taxes to pay for the health care takeover, even with new taxes on nearly a million small businesses, the planners in Washington still didn't have enough money. They needed more. They needed hundreds of billions more. So, they just took it all away from Medicare. Seven hundred and sixteen billion dollars, funneled out of Medicare by President Obama. An obligation we have to our parents and grandparents is being sacrificed, all to pay for a new entitlement we didn't even ask for. The greatest threat to Medicare is Obamacare, and we're going to stop it.
Accused President Obama's health care law of funneling money away from Medicare "at the expense of the elderly." In fact, Medicare's chief actuary says the law "substantially improves" the system's finances, and Ryan himself has embraced the same savings.
More than $700 billion is being taken out of Medicare through reductions in payments to service providers. That money is going to go into the new Obamacare program. The media is saying there really aren't cuts because the patients on Medicare won't see any changes. But the fact is that money is being taken away from Medicare providers, so indeed, that is a cut engineered by Obama. Again, Paul Ryan was on the side of truth.
Obamacare, as much as anything else, explains why a presidency that began with such anticipation now comes to such a disappointing close.
It began with a financial crisis; it ends with a job crisis.
It began with a housing crisis they alone didn't cause; it ends with a housing crisis they didn't correct.
It began with a perfect Triple-A credit rating for the United States; it ends with a downgraded America.
Blamed Obama for the loss of a AAA credit rating for the U.S. Actually, Standard & Poor's blamed the downgrade on the uncompromising stands of both Republicans and Democrats.
What Paul Ryan said was 100% true. His clear point was that the country has suffered while Obama has been in office. He provided examples of how the country is worse off since Obama took office. It is sad, but it is true.
He created a bipartisan debt commission. They came back with an urgent report. He thanked them, sent them on their way, and then did exactly nothing.
Republicans stepped up with good-faith reforms and solutions equal to the problems. How did the president respond? By doing nothing— nothing except to dodge and demagogue the issue.
So here we are, $16 trillion in debt and still he does nothing. In Europe, massive debts have put entire governments at risk of collapse, and still he does nothing. And all we have heard from this president and his team are attacks on anyone who dares to point out the obvious.
Accused Obama of doing "exactly nothing" about recommendations of a bipartisan deficit commission — which Ryan himself helped scuttle.
The bipartisan debt commission recommendations were not brought to a vote. That doesn't mean Obama had to do nothing more. But he did nothing more. And that was Paul Ryan's point. Why not work on reforms that might be agreed upon? Again, Ryan's statements were true.
It's sad that the media had to try so hard to find lies in Paul Ryan's speech. They had to spin what Ryan actually said to try to make it a lie. And they still failed miserably.


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What is the best way to introduce BitCoin to new people? (new strategy for BSV)
You love BitCoin, we get it. But how do you explain or convert new people to BitCoin in one short talk ? How do you make them interested rather than shove it down their throat ?
In the past we have seen people advocating for making them install a wallet and show them how fast it is by sending them some. But this is hardly exciting for people: a wallet is no more interesting than any other money app they already have on their phone, and all these apps already appear to send money just as fast, and often offer a much simpler user experience. The worst part is that once they have this bitcoin wallet the only thing they can do is hold & do nothing. That is very far from our goal in Bitcoin SV, we want people to USE BitCoin, so a new onboarding strategy is required.
In this article you will discover what I have found to be the most effective & fun strategy to onboard new people to BitCoin.
Pique their interest first
The AIDA (Attention, Interest, Desire, Action) Model identifies cognitive stages an individual goes through during the buying process for a product or service.
I have had most success by using an App like Twetch and after seeing me using it, people will naturally ask "hey what's this app ?"
Or I would say something on purpose to pique their interest; for example "wow I already earned $40 in a few weeks on this app just posting the same stuff that I post on twitter" and then they would ask me "wow what's that show me?"
The same can be done with any BSV app that you love & it's much better than trying to sell them the benefits of Bitcoin, which may be difficult to grasp for a layperson. However grasping the benefits of a specific app that you personally love is easy for them. This also has the advantage of NOT having to talk about the forks, BTC, Craig Wright being Satoshi etc, because a layperson does not care AT ALL about any of this stuff UNTIL they have experienced that BitCoin can really improve their life.
"You can't convince anyone of anything. You can only give them the right information, so that they convince themselves." -- Eben Pagan
Adapt to your audience
It is also very important to adapt the app you choose to the person you are talking to for maximum efficiency:
- If talking to a developer or IT person, introduce them using Terminus as they already know StackOverflow, for example: "wow I didn't expected to earn some money for using stackoverflow have you tried that ? well it's not actually stackoverflow but looks the same, take a look"
- If you are introducing BitCoin to a less technical person, I suggest Twetch or Cityonchain, which look easy & fun.
- If you are introducing BitCoin to a musician, then use audioB and show him he can make money uploading his music on it.
- If you are introducing BitCoin to a youtuber, show them Streamanity.
- If you are introducing it to a gambler, then use Peergame.
- If he is an entrepreneur or freelancer, use Fivebucks
Guide them through the steps
Once their interest is piqued THEN it is easy to make them go through the steps of creating a wallet (moneybutton seems best for apps at this time), send them a few BSV and get them started on the app. All of this requires some investment of time & effort on their part so it is important to raise their interest first.
If you are looking for the app that will best fit the person you are expecting to introduce to BitCoin, take a look at this onchain community-curated list of BSV apps: bsvapps.net
You can also share this link with them to allow them to discover other apps afterwards.
- Introduce them to BSV through an app, pique their interest
- Tailor the app you choose to the person!
- Once they are interested, make them create a wallet
- Send them a few BSV so they can experience it & start
- Onboard them to the app
- Use bsvapps.net to find the best app for them & share the link with them afterwards so they can find other apps later
Thank you for reading!
Leave a comment to tell me if you have had success with this strategy or what has been your experience with introducing people to BitCoin ?
PS: this article was originally written as an answer to someone's question on Terminus, the Metanet/BSV based Q&A community inspired by Stack Overflow and using moneybutton. It can be found at https://terminus.infofractal.io/#/questions/14
6 of 6 reviewers say it's worth paying for
0 of 6 reviewers say it's not worth paying for
What is Terminus? Where can I find this? Thank you
Here is a direct link to Terminus where I answered the question "what is terminus" : https://terminus.infofractal.io/#/questions/12
In the future you can find all the apps at http://bit.ly/bsvapps so bookmark it!
I like the ideas you outlined. But this will take a while. Many apps are brand new or in beta and not really ready for mainstream (early or late majority) users. Wallets are still not 100% sorted. Better to underpromise and overdeliver. I will readily onboard friends and family a little bit later when things are not constantly breaking, although I have not lost any funds, unlike LN users!


text: This month it worked out a little better. I was too lazy to get out the tripod (it was cold!), but I couldn't resist a photo of the moon with a halo/aura around it. I'm also too lazy to read up on how to take better photos of the moon, but I'm happy to just have the opportunity to try. Moon with aura Originally uploaded by gemsling .


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The Physics of Sorrow
"Your bile is stagnant, you see sorrow in everything, you are drenched in melancholy," my friend the doctor said.
bq. "Isn't melancholy something from previous centuries? Isn't some vaccine against it yet, hasn't medicine taken care of it yet?" I ask.
Georgi Gospodinov's The Physics of Sorrow was an immediate best-seller when it was published in his native Bulgaria in 2011, which is no small feat considering best-seller lists in the country are almost always dominated not by indigenous literature, but by a slightly schizophrenic gathering of translated literature of varying merit. To give an example, fellow best-selling books in fiction that year included The Forty Rules of Love by Elif Şafak (2010), and The Bastard of Istanbul (2007) by the same author, as well as, perhaps, the inevitable: Fifty Shades of Grey (2011). This points to the Bulgarian reader's eclectic taste: the Dumas, Dostoevsky, and Remarque of her childhood paving the way for an enduring historical and intellectual thirst followed by mired fascination with an exotic, far-away America via its spiritual junk food.
As a writer, Gospodinov travels freely—physically and metaphysically—attempting to grasp the national fascination with chujbina or "foreign country," along with the necessity of revisiting another quite foreign thing: your own childhood. The metaphor he utilizes in The Physics of Sorrow for doing the latter is a child Minotaur, necessary perhaps only for the natural resistance of Bulgarians for self-introspection.
In his native country, Gospodinov (whose last name essentially means "Sir," giving him an innately superior status) is a literary star, celebrated for many reasons, one of which is his translation into over twenty languages. This kind of success doesn't come without detractors. He has received death threats for essays he's written and many decry what they perceive to be the contrived mass-hysteria that follows the release of his books in Bulgaria. But Gospodinov's writing speaks for itself; it is effortlessly relatable and that, in turn, translates.
If the author's Natural Novel (2005) was a novel of beginnings, then The Physics of Sorrow can be read as a query into the riddle of beginnings and endings; a narratively deconstructed account of life that is part metaphor, part memoir, part metaphysical labyrinth. It's filled with episodic Bulgarian vignettes, contemplations on the meaning of alienation and memory, and cautious optimism about the collective conscience and the power of imagining the world anew.
Physics is gently human and not showy, masterful in its simplicity yet laugh-out-loud funny. Consider the author recalling attending a writer's open-casket funeral:
"While alive, he had hay fever. Now he was lying there, piled with flowers, looking as if he would start sneezing any minute. An orchid was sticking its tip right up his nose. But clearly he was already cured."
The image of the handful of unofficial mistresses (there is an official one, too) also in attendance and in the corner, with their ice-blue hair, is perhaps familiar to anyone who grew up in 1980s Bulgaria. But the humor, the absurdity of the scene, is universal despite the specificity of the locale.
The novel's translation, for which Angela Rodel was awarded a National Endowment for the Arts Fellowship, renders Gospodinov's poetic writing faithfully and elegantly into English, and, like the work from which it is interpreted, it is injected with gentle optimism. At one point, the author recalls hearing a story from a friend, Miriam, who, for a time, lives with a Buddhist. The Buddhist attempts to instill in her the notion that life is sacred and not to be disrupted. In this case, it means she cannot lay a finger on an ever-increasing swarm of cockroaches that invades their apartment. In Bulgarian, Gospodinov writes that Miriam accepts this roachy existence for an entire year because she is in love and she is, therefore, turpeliva, the direct translation of the word being "patient" or "uncomplaining" or "enduring." But Rodel takes it a step further and goes for "magnanimous." Humor is again a crucial component at the end of the episode: after the magnanimity wears off, Miriam grabs the roach spray, and to the devastation of the Buddhist—curiously, out to work at that precise moment—commits "genocide." But the Buddhist too falls off his sanctimonious horse: he's already taken another lover.
If stories like the cockroach saga revel in a sort of geographic haziness, the melancholy of socialist reality making frequent, subtly heartbreaking stops puts the geography immediately into focus. There are the images of the englassed balconies turned into kitchens that adorn every apartment building—that attempt to squeeze the most out of your allotted square footage; the starving years, when instead of eating, Gospodinov and his girlfriend read a cook book; the electricity regime in the '90s (think two hours on, two hours off); the stretches without hot water (an old Bulgarian joke has Electricity and Water running into each other at the entrance of an apartment building. "After you," says Electricity, "I'm only here for an hour." "No, after you, I insist," says Water, "I'm only going to the first floor.").
For those coming of age in newly democratic Bulgaria, the promise of something better, something new often came and went. Writes Gospodinov, "Back in the day, everybody was always saying: it's too late for us, but lets hope the kids will live a different life. The mantra of late socialism. I now realize that it was my turn to utter the same line."
But the book does not suffer from a martyr complex. Its multi-generational appeal exists precisely because it can make fun of itself without fatal insult.
Says Hristo Karastoyanov, a fellow writer also from the city of Yambol (and whose book, The Same Night Awaits Us All: Diary of a Novel, I'm currently translating): "Last summer in Bulgaria, the president did a one-day, country-wide public reading initiative. I was asked to help organize the Yambol event in the square, and the whole day had an air of contrivance, except for one thing: A girl, no more than 14 years old, got up to read a page from her favorite book. And it was a page from The Physics of Sorrow." No one told her to read that, she had chosen it, and to me, it said a lot."
With the English translation of "Physics entering the world, Gospodinov is now in the position of being able to push Bulgarian literature if not to the forefront, then at least meaningfully forward. His appeal is genuine, infectiously transcending boundaries both physical and figurative.


text:
Safely remove spark plug cables and prevent cable damage.
Ever pull on a plug wire to remove it and have the boot stay on the plug?
Well KD Tools has the solution to this dilemma. These Pliers are designed with specially coated handles and jaws to ensure a secure grip without damaging the plug wire.


text:
Redken Extreme Strength Builder Fortifying Mask for Distressed Hair provides deep conditioning and strengthens hair from the inside out for increased control and manageability.
Key ingredients:
Interlock protein network
- Rebuilds surface protection
- Provides progressive conditioning
- Strengthens hair's core.
Fortifying complex 18-mea amino acid and protein.
Why it works:
18-MEA helps restore the lipid layer of protection and resurfaces the cuticle to help restore shine while amino acids and protein enter the cuticle for targeted structural repair. Together, IPN and the Fortifying Complex deliver new Extreme's advanced strengthening benefits for healthier, shinier hair.
Directions for use:
Use Redken Extreme Strength Builder Fortifying Mask for Distressed Hair weekly as an intensive treatment. After shampooing, apply to towel-dried hair. Leave on 5-15 minutes, rinse thoroughly.


text:
Thousands protest Trump's Muslim ban in downtown Minneapolis
Thousands swelled the streets of downtown Minneapolis outside the federal courthouse to protest President Donald Trump's targeted immigration ban on numerous Muslim countries, including several which already contribute to Minnesota's celebrated diversity. Speakers included Mayor Betsy Hodges, who said Trump was trying to bully American cities into cooperation with his immigration policies. "Not on my watch," Hodges said, to roars from the crowd, which the Minneapolis Police Department estimated was at least 5,000 strong.


text:
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New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
Edited by Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, and approved January 25, 2013 (received for review August 21, 2012)
Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.
- climate change
- human–environment
- marine transportation modeling
- Arctic maritime development
- global change
Since 1979, satellite mapping has revealed an overall trend of decreasing late-summer sea ice extent in the Arctic, with the six lowest years on record occurring since 2006 (1). Climate model projections indicate that this overall trend will continue, leading to a seasonally ice-free (defined as <1 M km2 in September) Arctic Ocean later this century (2⇓⇓–5). These projections have, in turn, fueled abundant discussion about possible new geographically shorter international shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans by the Northern Sea Route or Northwest Passage (6⇓⇓⇓–10). However, such suppositions remain highly speculative, because few studies have attempted to merge climate model output with numerical transportation analysis; thus, a quantitative assessment of how anticipated climate changes will calculably alter trans-Arctic navigation is lacking.
To address this deficiency, we applied the Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (ATAM) (11) to individual and ensemble-averaged datasets of projected sea ice thickness and concentration from seven respected coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs), assuming two different climate-forcing scenarios and vessel types at present (2006–2015) and by midcentury (2040–2059). The GCMs used were the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator versions 1.0 and 1.3 (ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory version CM3 (GFDL-CM3), the Hadley Global Environment Model 2 Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC), the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace medium resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere model (IPSL-CM5A-MR), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-MR), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Six of the GCMs (ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MPI-ESM-MR) were selected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for best reproducing observed total sea ice extent and volume over the period 1979–2010 (5). The seventh GCM (CCSM4) was selected owing to its realistic representation of Arctic sea ice interannual variability and radiation physics (4, 12).
To control for seasonality, simulations were restricted to the peak navigation month of September, when open water reaches its maximum annual extent. For each September of every year, the optimal least-cost navigation route, narrowly defined as the most temporally expedient navigation course minimizing total voyage travel time while also avoiding sea ice sufficiently thick and/or concentrated so as to obstruct a particular vessel class, was identified for hypothetical ships seeking to traverse the Arctic Ocean between the North Atlantic (Rotterdam, The Netherlands and St. John's, Newfoundland) and the Bering Strait (Materials and Methods). Note that the word optimal, as used here, refers simply to any technically feasible navigation route that most minimizes total transit time (i.e., through optimization of geographical distance with advantageous sea ice thickness and concentration conditions), with no consideration of economic, regulatory, jurisdictional, or other factors also important to transit time and/or route selection. All simulations were obtained in a Lambert Azimuthal Equidistant map projection such that routes using the shortest geographical distance between two points (great circle arcs) appear as straight lines in the final map products. Optimal navigation routes were determined for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate-forcing scenarios, representing medium-low (+4.5 W/m2) and high (+8.5 W/m2) radiative forcing increases, respectively (13); and Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water (OW) vessels, with medium and no hull ice strengthening, respectively (14).
Simulations of optimal navigation routes using ensemble-averaged, hind-casted (1979–2005) climate model outputs realistically mimic the geographically restricted late 20th century pattern of limited shipping activity in the Arctic, with transits for PC6 and OW vessels confined to the Northern Sea Route (Fig. 1). This pattern is largely replicated for current conditions (2006–2015), with only minor differences in shipping potential between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate-forcing scenarios (Fig. 2 A and C). By midcentury (2040–2059), however, the region's overall navigation potential increases substantially (Fig. 2 B and D), with three conclusions broadly apparent across both climate-forcing scenarios as follows.
First, the feasibility for OW vessels to complete September trans-Arctic voyages along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) both increases in frequency and expands geographically, with numerous optimal September routes shifting northward away from the Russian Federation coast (Fig. 2 B and D, blue lines). During the 1979–2005 historical baseline period (Fig. 1), sea ice limited the probability of a technically feasible OW transit along the NSR to just ∼40% in any given year, but this probability rises to 71%/61% for 2006–2015 and 94%/98% by 2040–2059 (for RCP 4.5/8.5, respectively). Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit the viability of Arctic marine shipping (15⇓–17), from a purely geophysical sea ice perspective, the ability of unstrengthened OW ships to traverse the NSR and other areas of the eastern Arctic Ocean will increase.
Second, the emergence of unprecedented new optimal navigation routes for PC6 vessels through the central Arctic Ocean and Northwest Passage (NWP) is plainly evident by 2040–2059 (Fig. 2 B and D, red lines). This dramatic northward shift of optimal PC6 routes well away from the NSR (which dominates optimal PC6 traffic today) to the North Pole (for transits to/from Europe) and through the NWP (for transits to/from eastern North America) is apparent regardless of whether a +4.5 or +8.5 W/m2 climate-forcing scenario is assumed. The emergence of a robust PC6 corridor directly over the North Pole, for example (Fig. 2 B and D), indicates that, in either scenario, sea ice will become sufficiently thin (e.g., <1.2-m thick at 100% ice concentration) and/or diffuse such that a critical technical threshold is surpassed, and the shortest great circle route thus becomes feasible, for ships with moderate ice-breaking capability.
Third, the Northwest Passage (NWP), arguably the most historically famed of potential shipping routes through the Arctic, has the lowest navigation potential both historically and at present but opens substantially by 2040–2059. Under no simulations do ice conditions in the NWP attract transits to/from Europe for either vessel class (Fig. 2, all lines). However, for transits to/from eastern North America, the NWP is more efficacious than any other route 100% of the time for PC6 vessels (for either climate-forcing scenario), and is often more efficacious than the NSR for OW vessels by midcentury. During the 1979–2005 historical baseline period (Fig. 1), sea ice limited the probability of a feasible OW transit through the NWP to just ∼15% in any given year, but this probability increases to 17%/27% by 2006–2015 and 53%/60% by 2040–2059 (for RCP 4.5/8.5, respectively). Put simply, by midcentury, September sea ice conditions have changed sufficiently in the NWP such that trans-Arctic shipping to/from North America can commonly capitalize on the ∼30% geographic distance savings that this route offers over the NSR.
This analysis presents simulations of changing technical feasibility of trans-Arctic ship navigation as influenced by climate-induced changes in sea ice concentration and thickness. Its core findings of rising optimal OW navigability along the NSR, newly optimal PC6 navigability through the central Arctic Ocean and NWP, and newly optimal OW navigability through the NWP are evident in both climate-forcing scenarios examined (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, corresponding to +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2 increases in radiative forcing, respectively), and because current climate models often lag behind real-world satellite observations of shrinking Arctic sea ice cover, they may well be conservative. Additional refinements to these optimal route simulations are anticipated as the available suite of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models continues to incorporate improved representation of sea ice geophysics and additional processes, particularly ice ridging and decay, that are also impactful to shipping. We reiterate that these results reflect conditions for peak late-summer (September) shipping season only, and are driven solely by projected reductions in sea ice thickness and concentration. Although sea ice currently represents the single greatest obstacle to trans-Arctic shipping, numerous additional factors, including dearth of services and infrastructure, high insurance and escort fees, unknown competitive response of the Suez and Panama Canals, poor charts, and other socioeconomic considerations, remain significant impediments to maritime activity in the region (15⇓–17).
Such factors permitting, our findings have important implications for trade, environmental risk, and evolving strategic and governance policies in the Arctic. The prospect of common OW ships (which comprise the vast majority of the global fleet) entering the Arctic Ocean in late summer, and even its remote central basin by moderately ice-strengthened vessels (as are used today in the Baltic), heightens the urgency for a mandatory International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulatory framework to ensure adequate environmental protections, vessel safety standards, and search-and-rescue capability for this unique and challenging polar ecosystem (18). The new "Supra-Polar" routes identified here can deviate outside of the standard 200-nm Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Russian Federation, thus enhancing the potential appeal of the international high seas and Norwegian, Greenlandic, Canadian, and US (assuming eventual US ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) EEZs (Fig. 2, dashed lines) for transit relative to the NSR (where the Russian Federation currently charges escort fees to international vessels) (16). Finally, two chronic, long-standing debates over the status of international shipping through the NWP (19, 20) and US ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (21) may warrant renewed attention, in light of its nascent navigability and the broader circumpolar changes projected here.
Materials and Methods
Sea ice parameters were obtained from monthly ice concentration and thickness time series from the ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MPI-ESM-MR, and CCSM4 GCMs (22, 23). Of these GCMs, CCSM4 is most conservative (i.e., most overestimates ice extent) owing to its weaker Arctic climate response than other models, including an ∼16% reduced Arctic amplification relative to CCSM3 (4). Individual and ensemble-averaged GCM runs were used for two end-member climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 (with a medium-low radiative forcing of +4.5 W/m2) and RCP 8.5 (with a high radiative forcing of +8.5 W/m2) (13), for the two study periods encompassing present (2006–2015) and midcentury (2040–2059) conditions. Individual and ensemble-average hind-casted GCM model outputs (with no climate forcing) were also studied for the historical baseline period (1979–2005). For each of these seven climate models, three study periods, and two climate-forcing scenarios (for 2006–2015 and 2040–2059 only), individual time series of monthly mean September sea ice concentrations and thicknesses were obtained for each GCM and projected to a Lambert Azimuthal Equidistant projection centered on the Bering Strait (65°38′36″ N, 169°11′42″ W) at 20 km2 resolution using nearest-neighbor interpolation. These time series were also averaged to produce seven-model ensemble datasets of sea ice thickness and concentration to produce Figs. 1 and 2.
Least-cost navigation routes were derived from the described individual and ensemble-average datasets in ATAM (11, 24) modified as follows. To comply with standard maritime convention, GCM model output was adapted for use in the Canadian Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS), a widely used maritime framework used to assess navigation safety in a given ice regime as a function of ice conditions and the structural and engineering capabilities of a particular vessel class (25). Under AIRSS, the ability of a ship to safely navigate ice-covered waters is given by the ice numeral (IN):
where Ca is the concentration in tenths of ice type a, IMa is the ice multiplier of ice type a, Cb is the concentration in tenths of ice type b, and so on. Ice type describes the physical properties of ice and is closely related to ice age, because older ice tends to be thicker and stronger than younger ice owing to annual accretion of ice layers and reduced brine inclusions, thus posing greater hazard to ships (26). IMs, which are based on ice type and vessel class, are a series of nonzero integers ranging from −4 to 2, with higher values denoting lower risk. A negative IM signifies that the ice regime presents significant hazard and should be avoided. Pressure ridging and decay effects were not considered, because these processes are not explicitly modeled by today's current suite of available GCMs.
GCM outputs of sea ice concentration were input directly to the AIRSS IN framework. GCM outputs of ice thickness were categorized into IM values by estimating ice type from thickness ranges, using either standard AIRSS guidelines (for ice thicknesses ranging from 0 to 120 cm) (25) or an empirical regression model based on analysis of remotely sensed data (for ice thicknesses > 120 cm) (11). To span a range of capital investment in ship capability, simulations were run for a moderately ice-strengthened PC6 vessel (capable of summer/autumn operation in medium first-year ice, which may include old ice inclusions; assumed here as capable of breaking up to 120 cm of ice thickness in continuous 100% concentrated ice) and a common OW vessel (no ice strengthening; assumed here as capable of breaking up to 15 cm of ice thickness in continuous 100% concentrated ice). The AIRSS framework identifies six ice types (plus one OW type) with associated thickness ranges as follows: gray (10–15 cm), gray-white (15–30 cm), thin first-year first stage (30–50 cm), thin first-year second stage (50–70 cm), medium first year (70–120 cm), and thick first year (first-year ice over 120 cm) (25). Ice with thickness greater than 0 and less than 10 cm was aggregated with gray ice. Although this approach does not account for possible thickness variations within age classes or within ice of uniform age owing to seasonal melt–freeze cycles, it is generally true that age and thickness are well correlated at a given time of year (27, 28). Note that AIRSS distinguishes vessel ice capability by type (categories A–E) for operational use in Canada (25). The IMO Polar Class system, in contrast, was developed to harmonize construction and operating standards throughout the Arctic region (14). In accordance with international adoption of Polar Class nomenclature, this study follows the maritime convention that the AIRSS type A class is nominally equivalent to IMO PC6 (14, 25). The AIRSS type E category includes vessels intended for ice-free navigation only, and it is here referred to as OW.
Thickness ranges for older ice classes (i.e., second year and multiyear ice that has survived one and two or more melt seasons, respectively) were estimated from empirical observations relating ice age to thickness. Maslanik et al. (29) calculate median February/March proxy ice thicknesses for yearly age classes from 2004 to 2008 by combining ICESat freeboard ice-thickness measurements (30) with ice age grids derived from Lagrangian drift tracking. This methodology was repeated using October/November ICESat data from 2003 to 2007 to obtain proxy thicknesses for second-year and multiyear ice at the beginning of the freeze cycle. Weekly ice age grids were obtained from Maslanik et al. (29) for the period 2003–2007, and grids from week 41 to 48 of each year were averaged to obtain October/November mean ice age. Ice thickness and age grids were then overlaid in the ArcGIS geographic information system (GIS), and the median thickness value spatially coincident with each age class was averaged over the period 2003–2007, providing an October/November counterpart to the February/March estimates by Maslanik et al. (29). The September age–thickness relationship was then interpolated from a linear regression model between February/March and October/November thickness values (representing maximum and minimum annual thickness, respectively). By this method, multiyear ice was thus defined where September thickness exceeds 189 cm, second-year ice was defined where September thickness ranges from 151 to 189 cm, and thick first-year ice was defined where September thickness ranges from 120 to 151 cm.
In sum, the described procedures allow IM values for PC6 (IMPC6) and OW (IMOW) vessel classes to be derived from GCM outputs of ice thickness (T; in centimeters) as follows:
Optimal navigation routes were computed using a least-cost path algorithm as follows. Using the IM values obtained above, IN rasters for PC6 and OW vessels were created for each September of every year for all study periods (1979–2005, 2006–2015, and 2040–2059), two climate-forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), and two vessel classes (PC6 and OW). Navigation simulations were performed for both individual GCM runs and seven-model ensemble averages. Raster cells identified as having a negative IN for a given ship class were reclassified as inaccessible. Ship travel times (minutes per kilometer) were computed for all remaining areas using published IN–vessel speed relationships as published by McCallum (31). Next, each resultant September travel time raster was converted in GIS to a vector mesh of uniformly spaced nodes (20-km posting), with each node linked by eight line segments to its eight immediately adjacent neighbors (four orthogonal and four diagonal), and each line segment was coded with the travel time required to traverse the segment. Each mesh was then treated as a network surface in GIS, and the optimal, least-cost path was computed as the route accumulating the lowest possible travel time between origin and destination. Routes originated to/from two North Atlantic ports (Rotterdam, The Netherlands and St. Johns, Newfoundland) and terminated at the Bering Strait. For any year in which no trans-Arctic voyage was possible owing to ice obstruction equal to or exceeding the vessel class limit, no least-cost route was computed. Transit success rates were computed as the percentage of years in which a September transit was possible across all individual GCM model runs for all Septembers contained within the study period. Final summary map products were generated from ensemble-averaged sea ice thickness and concentration datasets, with line widths of the plotted navigation routes (blue, OW; red, PC6) proportional to frequency of use, and underlain by period-average September sea ice concentration.
Constructive, helpful reviews by two anonymous readers are gratefully acknowledged. Matt Zebrowski of the University of California, Los Angeles Department of Geography provided graphic art assistance with Figs. 1 and 2. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cryosphere Program.
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: lsmith{at}geog.ucla.edu.
Author contributions: L.C.S. designed research; S.R.S. performed research; L.C.S. and S.R.S. analyzed data; and L.C.S. and S.R.S. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
See Author Summary on page 4871 (volume 110, number 13).
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
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