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Maci Bookout Has One Big Problem with Bristol Palin Joining Teen Mom OGby Hilton Hater at .
Maci Bookout held little back as a guest this week on Kailyn Lowry's "Coffee Convos" podcast.
First, as previously detailed, Maci spoke out for the first time since ex Ryan Edwards got arrested for approximately the 174th time.
From there, Bookout delved into the most pressing topic facing Teen Mom OG viewers at the moment...
... the addition of Bristol Palin to this franchise.
In mid-July, this daughter of an ignorant, close-minded and controversial former Vice Presidential candidate confirmed that she was headed to MTV, claiming she was joining the series in order to serve as a role model.
Asked about Palin as a co-star, Maci at first took a shot at former co-star Farrah Abraham, who was dismissed from Teen Mom this past winter due to her penchant for appearing in amateur porn videos.
"I really feel like I'm not gonna be mad about anybody joining because anybody's better than Farrah," Maci told Kailyn on the podcast.
Not many folks out there will disagree with this opinion.
It wasn't exactly Maci's most scorching take of all-time.
Bookout went on to tell Lowry and cohost Lindsie Chrisley that she doesn't "really care if other people join the cast," nor does she blame Bristol for doing so.
She simply would have appreciated any kind of heads-up prior to MTV announcing the decision.
"I think me and Catelynn [Lowell] and Amber [Portwood] are all pretty much on the same page," Bookout explained, adding:
"If they bring in new cast members, we don't want it to be called Teen Mom OG because that's not true if there's new cast members.
"We don't really care who joins because in our minds, we're like, if somebody is presented with the opportunity, or like, say, one of us was never on the show and they asked us, no one's going to turn the opportunity down.
"You can't be mad at somebody for accepting an opportunity."
This is a reasonable point of view.
Of course, Palin is reportedly making $250,000 for one season of filming, which may be cause for tension between her and her new colleagues.
This huge salary could be considered disrespectful to those who have been part of the cast for years.
Bookout says she would have appreciated a "courtesy call" from producers, but didn't sound all that peeved about Palin:
"That's my problem. Like, hey, they know when it's going to come out. They know when the official release is coming out so, like, an hour before, call.
Give us a call and be like, 'Hey, by the way, this is who your new cast member is going to be. it's being released today. … We've been doing this for 10 years!"
In her own statement since the news went viral, Bristol said the following about her upcoming role on Teen Mom OG:
I am excited to join MTV's 'Teen Mom OG.' I look forward to sharing my experiences and hope that I can help others on their journey.
Elsewhere, Lowry also asked Bookout about the reports that The Challenge's Cheyenne Floyd and Corey Wharton are joining the cast.
But the long-time reality TV personality did not confirm or deny the casting rumor. Or seem to care much.
"I think because Bristol Palin has such a … I mean, her mom ran for vice president, so I think it's just a bit of a bigger deal than fellow MTV stars coming on," she said.
MTV has not yet announced a premiere date for Teen Mom OG Season 8.


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Poseidon Land & Sea Construction, Inc.
Proudly serving Orlando, Titusville, Merritt Island, Cocoa Beach, Sattellite Beach & All Central Florida
Call For a Free Estimate (888) 995-2435Or Contact email@example.com
Get your dream dock, boardwalk, or seawall built with marine construction services provided by Poseidon Marine.
Our company also offers repair services, existing facility upgrades & new construction anywhere in the Brevard & Orange County areas. Need a seawall repair or replacement? We use the latest vinyl panel products. Vinyl panel sheet pile is the strongest & longest lasting seawall product on the market today. Call us for a free seawall inspection. If needed, we will be glad to provide an estimate for repair or new vinyl panel replacement.
Proudly Serving Orlando, Titusville, Merritt Island, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, Melbourne Beach & the Central Florida Area
Handle all of your marine construction needs with Poseidon Marine Construction. We are a construction company in Titusville, but service all of the central Florida area with Marine 1 licences in Brevard, Orange, & Lake Counties. For more than 17 years, we have provided our customers with the highest quality custom docks, seawalls, boat houses pedestrian bridges & aquatic recreation platforms at the most competitive prices. We are much more than just dock builders. Our company also offers repair and replacement services with the best selection of marine lumber, hardware, seawall vinyl panels & dock accessories.
Here at Poseidon, we provide you with over 50 years combined experience in fresh water & coastal marine construction. Our dock builders are screened well, & have heavy backgrounds in both commercial & residential applications, as well as the ability to provide you with the latest techniques & quality workmanship second to none. We are a family-owned business & participate in all projects with enthusiasm. We work hard to give each & every customer a little extra before a project closes. Completed project references are given with all proposals. We stand by our work! All of our projects come with a minimum 1 year labor / material warranty & a 3 year material replacement. We are also involved with our community & make efforts to give back towards school sport's programs & donate to other local charities throughout the year.
To request a selection of superior marine products & services please contact us for a free estimate.
We are a licenced & fully insured "Marine Contractor". Our prices are very competative, but we also provide State of Florida required Longshoreman's coverage for our employees & management, which protects owners from liability with work over or around water construction. Please protect yourself & require your contractor to provide ULS&H coverage for your project. This coverage was established in 2007 by the Florida legislature to alleviate an owner's risk of being sued for injury or death duing the commencement of work.

subset: commoncrawl


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It took me a while to get on the social media bandwagon, but once I did I realized it was by far one of the best ways possible to market myself and my brand. It's a lot of work to build an audience with just a blog, since most people are hanging out on social media and not so willing to pry themselves away from it.
My favorite social media hang out is Instagram (you can find me by searching for @sanspotter). It's probably because I'm a highly visual person and I've always had a love for photography, so it's fun to hang out with like-minded people who share the same passion for aviation that I do. The problem with Instagram, however, is that it's difficult to post consistently great content on a single theme unless you're living it every day. I know there are a lot of you out there with a deep fascination for travel and aviation photography, but have difficulty generating content since you're not flying and traveling all the time.
This is where my social media image packs come in. I usually end up taking hundreds of photos for every flight that I take, but not every one of those photos makes it into the trip report for that particular segment. This means that I usually end up with thousands of unused photos rotting in my archives never to be seen again. That never sat right with me, so I created these highly-curated social media image packs as as a way to help aviation and travel enthusiasts easily obtain high-quality content for their social media accounts (primarily Instagram).
The images in these social media image packs are yours to post however you wish. Your purchase automatically includes a license to post them as your own without crediting me as the source. How freaking cool is that?


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From YPPedia
Introduction to Puzzle Pirates
Ahoy! Welcome, ye scallywags, to Puzzle Pirates, the world of puzzling piracy from Grey Havens!
Puzzle Pirates is an online game in which you create a pirate character and sail the seas, gathering booty as you go. Whenever your pirate sails, works the bilge pump, gets into a sword fight, indulges in a spot of drinking, or takes part in one of many other actions, you play a short puzzle game.
This will be your guide and manual to all matters Puzzle Pirate in nature. Good luck, and may the wind fill your sails!
Getting Started
You can launch Puzzle Pirates and start playing right now from our website or, if you prefer, you can download and install the full Puzzle Pirates game client directly.
Once you have the game running, you'll be able to create your very own pirate. If you already have a pirate, click the "I have an account" button and log in on the screen below using the account name and password that you previously registered with. If you've forgotten your account name or password you can ask for a reminder from this page on our website.
Create Your Pirate
When you first start the game, your pirate has been washed up on a desert island with only the clothes on his or her back! You can customize a number of aspects their appearance, including their sex, starting outfit, hair style, hair color, skin, and for men, their facial hair. Be sure to pick something you really like, but don't sweat it too much: you'll be able to change all of these things (except your pirate's sex) after you've begun playing.
You'll also have to choose a name for your new pirate. Names can include only alphabetical characters, and are limited to a maximum of twelve letters. Pirate names are always displayed with the first letter capitalized. Note that pirates with names that are offensive in nature may be removed or renamed, so please choose your name thoughtfully!
When you've finished with your makeover, click on the "Play Now" button and you'll be ready to explore the oceans of fun!
Once you've finished your first session as a new pirate, you'll be prompted to create an account so you can access your pirate again the next time you play. Type an account name and password into the appropriate fields and click the "Save My Pirate" button. Be sure to remember your account details: you'll need them to access your pirate the next time you play! If you've forgotten your account name or password, you can ask for a reminder or a new password from this page on our website.


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Based on the classic Korean barbecue dish bulgogi, this recipe offers savory-sweet-garlicky beef wrapped in lettuce leaves with rice and kimchi.
How to Make It
Cut steak across grain into 1/4-inch slices; cut slices into 1/2-inch-wide strips. Cut strips into 3-inch-long pieces. Combine steak pieces, 1/4 cup onions, sugar, soy sauce, garlic, and sesame oil.
Heat a 14-inch wok over high heat. Add 1 tablespoon canola oil to wok, swirling to coat. Add half of steak mixture to wok; stir-fry 2 minutes or until lightly browned. Spoon cooked steak mixture into a bowl. Repeat procedure with remaining 1 tablespoon canola oil and remaining steak mixture. Sprinkle with remaining onions and sesame seeds. Spoon 1/4 cup rice, about 2 tablespoons steak mixture, and 1 tablespoon kimchi onto each lettuce leaf; roll up. Serve immediately.
Chef's Notes
Kimchi is a traditional Korean condiment of fiery fermented cabbage. Look for it at Asian markets or in the supermarket's produce section.
MyRecipes is working with Let's Move!, the Partnership for a Healthier America, and USDA's MyPlate to give anyone looking for healthier options access to a trove of recipes that will help them create healthy, tasty plates. For more information about creating a healthy plate, visit www.choosemyplate.gov.


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Swell: a Year of Waves
"Surf team Evan Slater and Peter Taras capture the essence of waves and the swells that produce them in this breathtaking collection of wave photography. Slater characterizes four distinct swells from different corners of the globe and traces their journeys throughout the year from store to seashore." - inside cover
Swell makes a great gift for surfers and beach enthusiasts alike. Keep it on the coffee table as a conversation starter or leave on a bed stand as a treat for guests.
by Evan Slater
Photographs edited by Peter Taras
Chronicle Books


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McDowell Mountain Ranch Homes for Sale
McDowell Mountain Ranch AZ
Looking for McDowell Mountain Ranch? Well this is a great place to check out exceptional homes in a highly sought after Scottsdale, Arizona community. McDowell Mountain Ranch It is an award winning 3,200-acre master-planned development nestled in the foothills of the McDowell Mountains located in northeast Scottsdale, Arizona. What makes this place special is the natural beauty and serenity of the mountains, along with the unique ecosystem of the Sonoran Desert make an ideal backdrop for homes. One of the best features to this community, (and there are plenty of outstanding features) is the miles and miles of low lighted walking/biking trails. Great for people of all ages, these trails connect the entire community
McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale were available starting in 1995, consisting of 26 distinct neighborhoods built by 14 different builders and comprising almost 4,000 homes. Over $130 million was spent to build infrastructure and site improvements. They included miles of paved and natural trails, a narrow-cast cable TV station for residents, a Community Center and the wonderful McDowell Center which houses the offices of the Homeowner's Association. The latter facility is equipped with a state of the art kitchen for meetings and is available for private gatherings and events. There are also two heated swimming pools and spas, children's playgrounds, tennis courts, basketball and volleyball courts, picnic areas and plenty of walking, hiking and biking trails. The community offers it residents an outstanding elementary school Desert Canyon Elementary and middle school Mountainside Middle School.
I moved to this community with my family in 1996 and was very pleased with the opportunities that were available at McDowell Mountain homes for sale. I actually purchased one home and then immediately changed my mind and purchase another home in one of the several gated area of the community. My home was located in the Desert Cliffs section and I backed up to an incredible desert arroyo and had wonderful city light views from my backyard. Those were some wonderful years living in McDowell Mountain Ranch.
McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale offers opportunity to just about any price range of home buyer. From apartments, condo's, townhomes, small patio homes, single family homes and custom home sites, McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale has it all! If you are looking for a family friendly community, McDowell Mountain Ranch is a perfect location. Having the two schools located within the community children don't really need to ride a bus to school. The walk trails all go underneath the streets so children don't have to cross busy streets to get to school. The trails are great to ride your bike and the homeowners have a few individuals who love to take people on hikes to check out all the beauty of nature.
When searching McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale, you might also look at a few other newer communities in the Scottsdale area, however, I think McDowell Mountain Ranch has some of the best bang for the buck with all its amenities in comparison to some of the other communities nearby. Not trying to lead you away or only consider McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale, however not all communities are the same and one needs to evaluate them all both positive and negative.
The community also boasts a wide variety of social and physical activities for residents, including an impressive calendar of events that includes clubs reflecting a wide variety of interests, activities for both children of all ages and adults, special community-wide events and fitness, sports and educational classes.
For more information about McDowell Mountain Ranch homes for sale give me a call today at 1-866-620-2164 or view the map below for available homes for sale.


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The beer you love from THE SUB can now be found at Beerwulf.com. We're joining forces to give you the ultimate draught experience, combined with over 1000 craft and speciality bottles and cans. All ordered online and delivered to your door! Head on over to Beerwulf.com to discover THE SUB and a whole lot more.
Delivery within 1-2 working days if ordered before 16:00.
After you place an order you will receive a confirmation email containing the expected delivery date. The delivery is carried out by a postal or courier company.
Individuals who receive the alcoholic drinks must be at least 18 years old. The delivery driver can request to see ID. If nobody of 18 years or older is present to receive the alcoholic drink, the delivery driver is legally permitted to refuse delivery of the alcoholic drink and/or attempt to deliver at a later stage, without being legally bound to do this.
We will ship all orders from €45 on THE-SUB.com for free. You are charged €5 shipping costs for orders between €10 and €45. We charge €7.50 shipping costs for orders up to €10.
You can cancel your order within 30 days after you receive the package. To cancel your order, you just need to let us know that you have decided to cancel and return your package without any costs. You can contact us by:
1) Phone: 0800 2255843782 (free call)
2) Fill out the Cancellation Form and send it to our Customer Service by the online contact form
Then please send us your package within 30 days after you receive the package:
Please note we can only reimburse the purchase price to the bank account or credit card that was used to place the order.


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Spinning and Bugged after the page break.
Spinning and Bugged after the page break.
The latest Cars short, Time Travel Mater, premieres June 16 on ABC during a broadcast of Cars and at the Disneyland Resort in Blue Sky Cellar at Disney California Adventure park on June 15.
Release date: November 1, 2011
Graphic designer Juan Pablo Bravo has created this awesome infographic showing 100 Pixar characters with their estimated sizes.
Click the thumbnail below to see a full resolution version.
Check out this new CARS short, which debuted on the Disney Channel on November 20, 2009:
Tons of Disney and Pixar news today so let's get to it. First up, Disney has announced that Mandy Moore will voice the title role in the upcoming 2D-animated film "Rapunzel," while Zachary Levi, star of NBC's Chuck, will play the role of a bandit who takes Rapunzel on an adventure. So we can now assume that Rapunzel being stuck in the tower will merely serve as the intro to the film, with the story following her on her adventures as she discovers what she's been missing.
Next up is Pixar's Toy Story 3 news. While speaking at a Disney presentation in London, John Lasseter announced that Timothy Dalton and will play the role of a toy porcupine called Mr. Pricklepants.
A clip of the film was show as the presentation which reveals some plot points. Empire Magazine describes the clip: Clearly the toys end up being sent to a daycare centre, where they are horribly abused by the little kids – and after that it's time for a break-out attempt to find a safe haven, and hopefully a new owner, in a cruel world.
Pixar also revealed the plot for Cars 2. The lead characters are Lightning McQueen and Mater, with a new car thrown into the mix, an Aston Martin named Finn McMissile. According to Empire, Mater is caught up in a case of mistaken identity and becomes embroiled in a huge spy thriller, though nobody believes him.
Let's move on to Pixar's other project, The Bear and the Bow (now known as Brave). Pixar announced that Julie Walters is joining the cast an evil witch, antagonizing the 10th century Scottish royal family, voiced by Reese Witherspoon, Emma Thompson and Billy Connolly. The movie will focus on the mother-daughter relationship between Merida (Witherspoon) and her mother, the Queen (Thompson).
Lastly is Disney's upcoming Winnie the Pooh feature film. It was revealed that the film will mimic the watercolor style of the books and will combine five unfilmed stories as its plot.
Via the fine folks at /Film.
Disney•Pixar will premiere its first Disney Digital 3-D short film – "Tokyo Mater†– directed by John Lasseter, at theaters nationwide beginning December 12. Appearing before Walt Disney Pictures' "Bolt,†the animated short is the fourth in Disney•Pixar's "Cars Toons†series, inspired by the hit 2006 film "Cars.â€
In "Tokyo Mater,†a routine tow lands Mater in Tokyo, where he is challenged to a drift-style race against a nefarious gang leader and his posse of ninjas. With the help of his friend, "Dragon†Lightning McQueen, and some special modifications, Mater attempts to drift to victory and become "Tow-ke-O Mater, King of all Drifters.â€
2-D computer versions of "Tokyo Mater†will also be available for theaters showing "Bolt†in 2-D.
During today's Walt Disney Showcase, John Lasseter revealed that the release date for Cars 2 will be pushed forward to Summer 2011, from the previous 2012 release date.
Mr. Lasseter also revealed plot details and how the idea came to him while traveling the world doing publicity for the original Cars. He wondered how Lightning McQueen, Mater and the rest of the gang would react to other countries and the foreign vehicles that inhabit them.
The sequel will answer such a question as Lightning McQueen and Mater go on a worldwide trip where they will no-doubt meet many new friends — all of which you will be able to buy at a toy store near you, just in time for the Holidays! After all, we all know that's the only reason Pixar is doing another sequel. The original was a HUGE merchandising hit for Disney with products repeatedly selling out.
Also announced was a series of short Cars cartoons cleverly (not really) titled Car-toons… get it? Car…toons… Yea, they didn't even try. The shorts will air on the Disney Channel and maybe even in theaters before other Disney films.
Discuss: What do you think? Is Cars 2 just an attempt to cash in on merchandising? What other Pixar film do you think would have been a better choice for a sequel? Post your comments and discuss with other readers.
Via Slashfilm
Check out the logos for the upcoming PIXAR movies:
Pixar has released information for all their upcoming movies, including plot details and release dates. Check it out below:
June 27, 2008 – WALL•E
May 29, 2009 – Up
October 2, 2009 – Toy Story in 3-D
February 12, 2010 – Toy Story 2 in 3-D
June 18, 2010 – Toy Story 3 in 3-D
Summer 2011 – Newt
Christmas 2011, The Bear and the Bow (now known as Brave)
Summer 2012 – Cars 2
Up synopsis:
From the Academy Award nominated team of director Pete Docter ("Monsters, Inc.") and co-director Bob Peterson comes "Up," a comedic adventure taking off (and lifting spirits) in summer 2009. Carl Fredricksen spent his entire life dreaming of exploring the globe and experiencing life to its fullest. But at age 78, life seems to have passed him by, until a twist of fate (and a persistent 8-year old Wilderness Explorer named Russell) gives him a new lease on life. "Up" takes audiences on a thrilling journey where the unlikely pair encounter wild terrain, unexpected villains and jungle creatures. When seeking adventure next summer — look "Up."
Newt synopsis:
What happens when the last remaining male and female blue-footed newts on the planet are forced together by science to save the species, and they can't stand each other? That's the problem facing Newt and Brooke, heroes of "newt," the Pixar film by seven-time Academy Award winner for sound Gary Rydstrom, and director of Pixar's Oscar-nominated short, "Lifted." Newt and Brooke embark on a perilous, unpredictable adventure and discover that finding a mate never goes as planned, even when you only have one choice. Love, it turns out, is not a science.
The Bear and the Bow (now known as Brave) synopsis:
A rugged and mythic Scotland is the setting for Pixar's action-adventure "The Bear and the Bow." The impetuous, tangle-haired Merida, though a daughter of royalty, would prefer to make her mark as a great archer. A clash of wills with her mother compels Merida to make a reckless choice, which unleashes unintended peril on her father's kingdom and her mother's life. Merida struggles with the unpredictable forces of nature, magic and a dark, ancient curse to set things right. Director Brenda Chapman ("The Prince of Egypt," "The Lion King") and the storytelling wizards of Pixar conjure humor, fantasy and excitement in this rich Highland tale. It's voice talent is as follows: Reese Witherspoon, Billy Connolly, Emma Thompson.
Cars 2 synopsis:
All the world's a racetrack as racing superstar Lightning McQueen zooms back into action, with his best friend Mater in tow, to take on the globe's fastest and finest in this thrilling high-octane new installment of the "Cars" saga. Mater and McQueen will need their passports as they find themselves in a new world of intrigue, thrills and fast-paced comedic escapades around the globe. "Cars 2" is being directed by Brad Lewis, producer of the Oscar-winning film "Ratatouille."
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Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic Outlook (WEO)
Washington, D.C.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Olivier Blanchard
IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department
Oya Celasu
Research Department, IMF
Thomas Helbling
Research Department, IMF
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Research Department, IMF
Ismaila Dieng
Communications Department, IMF
MR. DIENG: Good morning, everyone ... Welcome to the launch of the 2015 World Economic Outlook. I'm Ismaila Dieng form the Communications Department here at the Fund. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the launch of the April 2015 World Economic Outlook. I am Ismaila DIENG from the Communications Department here at the IMF.
Joining us today:
Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counselor and Director of the Research Department,
Thomas Helbling Head of the World Economic Studies División
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Deputy Director of the Research Department.
Oya Celasun, Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department
As usual, Mr. Blanchard will make some opening remarks and then we will open the floor for questions.
MR. BLANCHARD - Let me start with the number you typically focus on: We forecast global growth to be roughly the same this year as last year, 3.5% versus 3.4%. This global number reflects an increase in growth in advanced economies, 2.4% versus 1.8%, offset by a decrease in growth in emerging market and developing economies, 4.3% versus 4.6% last year. In short, to repeat the words used by the Managing Director last week, we see growth as "moderate and uneven".
Behind these numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy. Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible. Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of a role behind the scene but are important nevertheless. Let me briefly review them.
So, let me take the first, legacies. Legacies from both the financial crisis, which affected directly most advanced economies, and the euro crisis, which affected Europe, are still highly visible to different degrees in different countries, weak banks and high debt, and by high debt it can be high debt of households, it can be high debt of corporations, it can be public debt obviously, still slow down spending and growth. So, they slowed down spending and growth, but at the same time low growth is making deleveraging, the decrease in debt of these various actors slower, more difficult.
So, I think what we have learned is that these legacies go away very slowly. Deleveraging is a very slow process and, while it lasts, it really slows down growth. That is the first force at work. Again, it works differently in different countries, but it is clearly there in most.
The second is potential growth. Here we are building on one of the analytical chapters of the WEO but it is directly relevant to our way, our view of what is going on. Potential growth, just to define it, is the way at which the economy can grow if the factors of production are fully employed, so it basically tries to attract away from cyclical movements.
What we have seen and established in that chapter is that potential growth in advanced economies has been declining. The interesting fact is that it was already declining before the crisis, probably from the early 2000s it was declining. What was behind it, aging surely, which decreases the growth of the labor force, and a slowdown in total factor productivity were both at work. Then the crisis made it worse because of decrease in output, the decrease in investment, capital growth, growth in the capital stock itself slowed down, adding to lower potential growth.
When we look forward, we think capital growth, maybe investment will recover, but the other factors will still be there, so that in the end we still have, looking forward, in advanced economies, potential growth at about 0.5 percent less than in the early 2000s, and that is a factor which is important.
If you turn to emerging markets, the decrease in potential growth is even more visible and it comes from, again, aging in a number of countries, in many countries, and a decrease in total factor productivity. What we do not see is the decrease pre-crisis, but since the crisis, and probably coincidentally, rather than due to the crisis, we see a decrease in potential growth. It is very visible in countries such as China, but it is much more general and applies to emerging markets.
I wish I could say more about what happens in low-income countries. Unfortunately, data issues are more [?]; it is more difficult to be sure. If I had to guess based on what we know, they would also show lower potential growth than they did 10 years ago.
Now, why does it matter? It matters clearly because this is where we are going if we are able to eliminate the output gaps, the cyclical fluctuations, but we think in a number of countries it has an effect outstanding today, which is that if you expect growth to be lower in the future, your sales growth to be less, you are going to invest as if you think your income is going to grow less, you consume less. So, it has an effect, we think, on activity today and, therefore, growth today.
So, these are the two deep forces that are at work. Let me now turn to the two visible ones and the ones which make the news. The first is the oil price. The decline in the price of oil has led to a large reallocation of real income from oil exporters to oil importers. Although it is a bit early to say, the evidence we have suggests that this increase in real income is leading to an increase in spending. If you look at the big oil importers, the U.S., the Eurozone, China, India, consumption spending is fairly strong and it is very plausible that that comes partly from the increase in real income coming from the decrease in the price that people have to pay for oil.
Now, this is clearly good news for the oil importers, which are most major countries. For the oil exporters, it is clearly not very good news. They are suffering from the other side, the decrease in real income coming from the decrease in the price of oil. Many of them have financial resources that they have accumulated when the price was relatively high and so can accommodate and decrease spending only marginally. Some of them, as you know, are in more serious trouble. But overall, looking again at the effect on the world economy, I think there is no question that the decline in the price of oil is a very good thing for the world economy.
Let me turn to the last one, which is exchange rate movements. They have been, as you know, unusually large, not exceptionally large, this happens once in a while, but fairly large. Among the major currencies, the dollar has appreciated. The yen and the euro have seen fairly large depreciations.
Now, where do they come from? We think that it comes fairly straightforwardly from the difference in monetary policies, the fact that in the U.S. we are not very far from the exit from the zero lower bound, maybe an increase in interest rates where in the Eurozone and in Japan were clearly very far away from it. Indeed, the ECB has started on a fairly large scale quantitative easing.
So, we think this divergence in monetary policies explains most of the movement in exchange rates, and we think that these monetary policies are appropriate given the state of the U.S., on the one hand, and the Eurozone and Japan, on the other.
Now, is it good news? Yes, I think it is good news. Clearly, for the Eurozone and Japan, it is going to help being more competitive, will eventually increase exports. What we have learned is that the process is a fairly slow one, but it typically happens. We are starting to see it in Japan.
Now, is it bad news for the U.S.? Well, there is the usual effect that it basically leads to an appreciation of the dollar which might have an effect on U.S. exports, but we think here that the U.S. has more margin of adjustment in terms of policies and, therefore, can offset most of the effects of an appreciation. So, again, on net, we think that this adjustment of exchange rates is justified and will help the world economy.
So, let me now put all these forces together, and that is a very different puzzle. You have some countries which suffer from adverse legacies and you have some countries which basically do not. You have some countries which suffer from clear declines in potential growth and you have countries where the effect is very small. You have countries which benefit from the decrease in the price of oil and you have countries which suffer from the decrease in the price of oil. You have countries which move with the dollar mostly and, therefore, is seeing an appreciation, and then there are countries which move more with the euro or the yen which are seeing a depreciation.
So, you have all these effects. You have to add to this a number of country-specific developments. I will cite two: Russia, which clearly there is serious economic trouble, and Brazil, where there is, again, a serious slowdown. So, the picture is a very complex one.
On net, as I have said, basically in our baseline forecast we have an increase in growth in advanced economies and a decrease in growth in emerging markets and low-income countries, but as I have made clear, these aggregate numbers do not give you a good sense of the granularity, of the specificity of what happens in each country.
Let me turn to risks. As always, there are risks to the forecasts. I think the good news is that the macroeconomic risks have, in our opinion, decreased. The main one last year when we met in October was the risk of a recession in the euro area and possibly in Japan. I think based on the numbers that we now have, the probability of a recession has not gone to zero but it has decreased substantially. So, what we saw as the major world macroeconomic risk from a systemic point of view probably is less likely to happen than it was, and it is good news.
At the same time, other risks have increased. Financial risks, geopolitical risks have increased.
Much of the presentation of the GFSR tomorrow will be on the financial risks, but let me just mention a few, which is that whenever you have large movements in relative prices, and it can be the price of oil, it can be the exchange rate, you are going to have winners and losers. It may well be that the losers find themselves in very difficult positions. They may go bankrupt if they are companies. They may have serious problems if they are countries.
So, we are seeing some of this around the world. I mean, the world in which you have large movements in exchange rates or in relative prices is a more risky world from a financial point of view and, therefore, there is some risk there.
There are other risks. Let me just mention the political and geopolitical side and the obvious one is the risk of an intensified Greek crisis, which could well unsettle financial markets; that is fairly obvious. Then you have turmoil which continues in Ukraine, in parts of the Middle East.
So far, this is very sad. It is not systemic, but this is something which could, again, get worse.
Let me turn finally to policy recommendations. Given the diversity of situations, it is obvious that one line does not fit all, that you have to have granular policy advice. But it is still the case that there are some general principles which applies, so I am just going to summarize those.
There is still the demand deficit and, as I have said, there is the worry that growth in the future is not going to be as strong as it was in the past. So, you need measures to sustain growth both in the short run mostly for demand policies and in the longer run through supply policies, and both continue to be needed.
On the demand policy side, with the introduction of the very successful program of quantitative easing in the euro area, we think that monetary policy now has in major countries done more or less everything it can. On the fiscal side, the decrease in the price of oil gives some room for some countries to adjust. In particular, there is a set of measures which may not have an effect on the deficit itself but on the composition of spending. The decrease in the price of oil is a golden opportunity to decrease energy subsidies in countries which have large ones and maybe to increase energy taxes in countries in which these taxes are too low. They are extremely good arguments for moving energy subsidies, replacing them by better targeted programs toward the poor, and for increasing energy taxes around the world.
The case we made for infrastructure investment, which I pushed rather strongly at the October meeting, remains. We think that in many countries, public investment, public capital is too low, that there is room for more public investment. Given the current very low rates at which many governments can borrow, we think that it makes sense to have high infrastructure investment. So, that advice very much remains.
Last, but not least, structural reforms. I think one has to be very clear that structural reforms are not a miracle cure. They are hard to get through; the effects are very often uncertain. But given the future that I have described, it is very important to try. Some structural reforms can clearly make a difference, maybe not to the growth rate permanently but at least to the level of output, which means that for some time there will be higher growth. I think given the short-term political costs associated with structural reforms, which is the main reason why you do not see them happening very quickly, I think the challenge is to choose them very carefully rather than have a long list and deliver on none of them.
So, let me stop here. We will take questions. Thank you very much.
QUESTIONNER: On page 9 you have an analysis of the global implications of exchange rate movements in which I guess you see a peak of the strengthening of the dollar and the yuan against the euro and the yen. You say that ultimately it will have a positive impact on global growth, as it boosts exports in Japan and Europe.
But in here you also say that the real GDP impact on China and the U.S. will be negative over 2-3 years—those are the two world's largest economies—and exchange rate movements perhaps have not finished their trend. Given the risks that those exchange rate movements can have on the global economy, the dollar debt denomination and asset bubbles, is it not a pretty big gamble to be making?
MR. BLANCHARD: First, we are not making gambles. Markets determine exchange rates. We just observe and interpret. But let me take your various points.
So, the first one is, you know, a depreciation of a country is an appreciation of another one, so it is clear that indeed the Eurozone and Japan benefit from the exchange rate depreciation, which they need, given the situation in which they are. It is clear also that the U.S. is adversely affected; again, we do not know by how much. To the extent that China decides to move with the dollar, which is a decision that they can take or not, it will also be adversely affected.
Why do we think that, on net, this is a good thing? Because we think that both the U.S. and China are in a much stronger cyclical position and they have the tools, and if it turned out that the effect on exports was fairly large, to offset that effect through monetary policy, fiscal policy, or other measures. So, on net, we think it is a good thing because of the asymmetry in the position of these countries.
On the risks, you are absolutely right, and that is the point I just made, which is that movements in the exchange rate mean that if you borrowed in the currency which is appreciating, you are going to be worse off. A number of countries and a number of firms have done so, and this is something that has to be taken into account. We have taken it into account.
Again, Jose Viñals tomorrow will give you a more detailed assessment of this, but we have concluded that it is not going to be a major issue, that basically the world is in a better situation from the point of view of foreign exchange exposure than it was in the past. So, this is clearly the side effects, but, again, on net, the main thing is I think a positive development.
QUESTIONNER: You spoke extensively in this report about the effect of the U.S. dollar on the global economy and the way in which it is redistributing growth. Given that, I am wondering if you can speak to what your base case is for the Federal Reserve in terms of raising rates, both the timing and the pace of that path.
MR. BLANCHARD: So, here we think that the Fed has been very explicit in the way it thinks about when to exit. It has made clear that it is data-contingent. We think that this is the right approach to it. This means that there is complete clarity as to the role that the Fed or principles that the Fed will follow when it takes a decision, but there is uncertainty about the timing because, by definition, we do not know exactly what the data will bear, whether the U.S. expansion will strengthen or weaken. We think the approach they take is the right one. We agree with the general consensus that it will probably happen this year. Whether it happens in June or September will depend on the data that come between now and then, but we think that they are doing exactly the right thing.
QUESTIONNER: My question is on Russia and Ukraine. Basically, the biggest mistake in the forecasts that were made by the IMF was after the 1998 crisis, when you did not expect a rapid resumption of growth in Russia. So, the question is, are you maybe selling Russia short a little bit in your new forecast, and alternatively, how confident are you that growth will resume in Ukraine in 2016?
MR. BLANCHARD: So, your point is exactly right, the IMF and others actually got it wrong in 1998, and the Russian economy did much better than had been forecast. The question is, why? I think retrospectively what happened is that the effect of the depreciation of the ruble had much more of an effect on exports than had been anticipated, and that helped. The question is will this happen again, given that there has been a large depreciation of the ruble? We are very skeptical and that shows in our forecast because we think that the Russian economy is subject to many other problems than just that. We think that the business climate is not good. We think that the price of oil has major adverse effects. So, this is why we are forecasting a recession.
QUESTIONNER: ... inaudible)
MR. BLANCHARD: - ... levels are very high and it would be desirable to decrease them. I think the speed at which this should be done depends on the strength of private demand and has to be done case by case. I think the general direction is clear. We have to try to decrease the ratios of debt-to-GDP and we should do it at a prudent pace. In general, we think that the current pace is about right.
QUESTIONNER: I have a question regarding China. You mentioned that your growth projection on China this year is 6.8 and next year is 6.3 and it is after the China government lowered its growth target 7 percent. I wonder if you can elaborate more on your projection on China. Also, are you confident that they can carry on with structural reform and stabilize growth at the same time?
MR. MILESI-FERRETTI: As you have noted, our forecast is quite close to the authorities' target. We think it is a good slowdown for China. It is associated with a more balanced pattern of growth and with a reduction in vulnerabilities. Our basic assumption is that policies will do less to push growth at all costs, and this is going to have some short-run negative effect on the level of growth but positive medium-run effects because you have slower growth of credit, slower buildup in imbalances, and ultimately you are heading toward a place where you have a more balanced structure of the macro economy.
We think it is extremely important to carry out financial sector reforms, social security reforms, reforms of monetary policy that will ensure that the set of tools that the authorities have is fully modernized and appropriate to ensure a stable and solid growth rate for China in the future.
QUESTIONNER: [THROUGH INTERPRETER] - Good morning to everyone. I would like to know if you have any anticipation of the 3.8 level for this year and 5 percent for next year. So, in your report you say that the different concerted policies and the appearance of new mining operations will consolidate that growth. The Ministry of Economy has said that it should be 4.2 for this year and 5 for next year. What we would like to know is if you could explain to us a bit what these concerted policies are meant to be, what is the line that is meant to be taken. Do you expect that there will be a consolidation of that 3.8 and that we will reach that level this year or do you consider that there is a downward trend to be expected?
Ms. CELASU - My channel still gave me the question in Spanish but I will answer your question if I understood it. Peru's growth rate decelerated sharply last year from close to 6 percent in 2013 to around between 2 1/2 and 3 percent last year. Much of that was related to the slowdown in metal prices but there were some domestic factors as well. Those domestic factors—supply side constraints, lower production in some mines temporarily, some issues and slowdown in investment and sub-nationals—are going to go away next year. The government has introduced a stimulus program in view of the slowdown in growth, around 2 percentage points of GDP, and there has been monetary easing as well. So, these are the factors why we expect growth to be closer to 4 percent in the next year.
The authorities have slightly higher estimates. What is important is that both us and them see this as a temporary setback and growth picking up in the years ahead, maybe not to the height of the last decade but closer to 4 1/2 percent.
QUESTIONNER: My question will be about North Africa, because I think that you do not mention anything about North Africa, about the situation there, especially about Tunisia, because Tunisia is still waiting for the third part IMF credit and I do not know why the IMF does not let Tunisia accept the last part. Can we have anything about the situation in Tunisia?
MR. HELBLING: The situation in North Africa reflects generally the difficult situation in the Middle East more generally. I think it has been a difficult few years with the transition and new political regimes, and the European economy overall that was decelerating, the main trading partner, which has not helped. So, countries like Tunisia have made important progress in terms of economic reforms, established governments under the IMF program. Looking forward, the fact that Europe is recovering should help. Program negotiations are ongoing and we expect the review to be completed sometime this year.
QUESTIONNER: I wonder if you could compare how Italy and the other three major Eurozone countries will take advantage of factors like the oil price decrease and quantitative easing, and in a comparative fashion, please.
Mr. HELBLING: I think we already see the benefits of lower oil prices in Europe. This is one reason why we have generally upgraded the forecast, the real income effect from lower oil prices. Similarly, as Mr. Blanchard mentioned, QE has been very successful. The asset price transmission has worked out. Borrowing costs have decreased. We now expect the transmission to the real economy.
One factor that distinguishes in this cross-section of the European countries which will lead probably to some distinction is the transmission to the real sector through the banking system. As our colleagues from the Global Financial Stability Report will elaborate upon tomorrow, there is the point that nonperforming assets, weak banking sectors are handicapped in the transmission of the impulse from QE in general, but overall I think one general theme as far as Europe, the euro area is concerned is growth and the recovery are strengthening and it is due, in particular, also to a change in policy to boost oil and we hope, going forward, also from continued further reform implementation.
MR. BLANCHARD: Let me just add, given that you asked for a comparative assessment, that clearly one of the problems of Italy is still its banking system, the ability of banks to actually supply credit, which is probably worse than in the other countries you mentioned.
QUESTIONNER: Brazil had almost no growth in 2014. You forecast a contraction of 1 percent this year and a very modest recovery in 2016. What explains such a weak performance in a three-year period?
MS. CELASU: You are right, the Brazilian economy stalled in 2014. Our forecast for next year is a contraction of 1 percent before there is a modest recovery in 2016 of 1 percent. What explains this deceleration this year, we have observed data coming in quite weak at the end of 2014 and early 2015, weaker than expected, and that slow momentum coming into the year is going to weigh on this year's growth. Our forecast also incorporates a policy adjustment, as announced by the authorities, quite some correction in the primary surplus this year. That is going to have a negative effect on growth early in the year, but we believe that it will actually boost credibility and confidence later in the year and set the stage for a return to positive growth next year.
MR. BLANCHARD: Let me add here that there is a silver lining, I think, to the Brazilian story.
Clearly the problem of the past few years is the problem of business confidence primarily leading to very low investment. It is still there, but the government clearly is taking measures to re-establish full credibility of fiscal policy. Monetary policy is responsible. But we are in a situation in which confidence has not come back yet while at the same time there is a fairly strong fiscal consolidation. So, the two effects are working in the same direction for the moment of making things worse, but if confidence comes back because of the measures which have been taken, things will turn around and one can be more optimistic about the future.
QUESTIONNER: A number of low-income countries, especially in Africa, are caught between a strong U.S. with currency issues and a weaker Europe. What would you recommend will be the way forward, because these two forces are affecting growth going forward?
Mr. Milesi-Ferretti - I can see two sets of effects. A lot depends on whether the exchange rate in these countries is floating or is tied, more tied to the dollar or more tied to the euro. Clearly, currencies that have depreciated, say, together with the euro will imply some boost to competitiveness for the countries. On the other hand, if a currency depreciates and the country has access to international financial markets, maybe for the first time borrowing in dollars, this, of course, raises the cost of external finance.
I think that, more generally, it is important to monitor foreign exchange exposures, particularly in the financial system, given these rapid currency movements. Overall, I would say that the growth outlook in a number of these economies remains quite favorable. Particularly low-income countries in Africa are seeing their growth forecasts for this year above 6 percent. They are actually doing much better than the middle-income ones and better than the oil exporters that are being affected by the decrease in the oil price.
Mr. BLANCHARD: Your point raises a more general issue which echoes what I have said earlier, which is that the divergence of monetary policies and, therefore, the divergence of exchange rates complicates the life of countries which have both trade and financial relations both with the dollar zone and the Eurozone. So, if you take, for example, the example of Turkey, on the one hand, clearly U.S. rates are going to be more attractive to go from Turkey to the U.S., but the very low euro rates are going to make it more attractive to go from the euro to Turkey. So, what happens to Turkey depends on what determines the capital flows to Turkey, whether they are more sensitive to the euro or more sensitive to the dollar. That is just one example. It is much more general than that. That clearly leads to an environment which is harder to manage than one in which all monetary policies are going in the same direction, but that is the world in which we are.
QUESTIONNER: If the measures taken in Brazil to increase confidence are not enough, what other sets of economic tools are available for the government of Brazil to be taken to increase and to reach growth again next year?
MS. CELASU: Olivier highlighted the importance of weak confidence in what is happening there right now. So, I think it is really of the essence that they press ahead with these measures in normalizing fiscal policy. Monetary policy has to also be calibrated well to the circumstances.
We have seen inflation pressures. Regulated prices have caught up with more normal levels. So, in terms of building confidence again, some normalization of these policy frameworks and settings will be the most helpful.
MR. BLANCHARD: Let me just add, we think that on the macro front, the measures which had been taken are the right ones, but clearly Brazil has problems beyond just macro. It has a problem of corruption, which we know, which hopefully will be solved. There are all kinds of structural reforms which are needed as well. So, we focused on the macro, but there is clearly more than just that.
MR. DIENG This will bring an end to our press conference today. We will see you tomorrow for the launch of the GFSR.
QUESTIONNER (Microphone not on)... is there a reason why you are ending early ...
MR. BLANCHARD : We will take one more question. Please, one more question.
QUESTIONNER? You mentioned Greece and the risk that is still going on in Greece. Unlike foreign exchange markets, you are a player in Greece. Is it not time to restructure Greece's debt?
MR. BLANCHARD: Look, you understand why we try to finish before the—
MR. BLANCHARD - We are clearly in the middle of negotiations with the Greeks. We very much want to come to an agreement and we hope we will. Now, what happens if no agreement were reached? I think that a number of things are fairly clear. The first one is that, say, an exit from the euro would be extremely costly for Greece. It would be extremely painful.
The second point is that, looking at the rest of the Eurozone, the rest of the Eurozone is in a better position to deal with the Greek exit. Some of the firewalls which were not there earlier are there. Still, it will not be smooth sailing, but it could probably be done. The third is that if that were to happen, I think the way to reassure markets and make progress is actually go further, use the opportunity to make progress in terms of the fiscal union and the political union. This would be clearly the right moment to do it.
Mr. DIENG - Now this will bring end to our press conference. We will see you tomorrow for the GFSR.
Ghosts In The Machine
By: Richard Mills
Friday, April 10, 2015
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
In 1798 32 year-old British economist Malthus anonymously published "An Essay on the Principle of Population" and in it he argued that human population's increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16 etc.) while their food supply can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 etc.). Since food is obviously necessary for us to survive, unchecked population growth in any one area or involving the whole planet would lead to individual pockets of humanity starving or even mass worldwide starvation.
Viva the revolution
- Medical advances lessened the mortality rate in many countries
- Massive increases in agricultural productivity caused by the "Green Revolution"
The global death rate has dropped almost continuously since the start of the industrial revolution - personal hygiene, improved methods of sanitation and the development of antibiotics have all played a major role.
The term Green Revolution refers to a series of research, development, and technology transfers that happened between the 1940s and the late 1970s. The initiatives involved:
- Development of high yielding varieties of cereal grains
- Expansion of irrigation infrastructure
- Modernization of management techniques
- Mechanization
- Distribution of hybridized seeds, synthetic fertilizers, and pesticides to farmers
Tractors with gasoline powered internal combustion engines (versus steam) became the norm in the 1920s after Henry Ford developed his Fordson in 1917 - the first mass produced tractor.
This new technology was available only to relatively affluent farmers and it was not until the 1940s tractor use became widespread.
Electric motors and irrigation pumps made farming and ranching more efficient. Major innovations in animal husbandry - modern milking parlors, grain elevators, and confined animal feeding operations - were all made possible by electricity.
Advances in fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides and antibiotics all led to better weed, insect and disease control.
There were major advances in plant and animal breeding - crop hybridization, artificial insemination of livestock, growth hormones and genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
Further down the food chain came innovations in food processing and distribution.
All these new technologies increased global agriculture production with the full effects starting to be felt in the 1960s.
Cereal production more than doubled in developing nations - yields of rice, maize, and wheat increased steadily. Between 1950 and 1984 world grain production increased by over 250% - and the world added a couple billion people more to the dinner table.
The modernization and industrialization of our global agricultural industry led to the single greatest explosion in food production in history. The agricultural reforms and resulting production increases fostered by the Green Revolution are responsible for avoiding widespread famine in developing countries and for feeding billions more people since. The Green Revolution also helped kick start the greatest explosion in human population in our history - it took only 40 years (starting in 1950) for the population to double from 2.5 billion to five billion people.
We goosed agra machine's growth and at the same time, through better sanitation and the use of antibiotics, we saved a billion people who birthed a billion and more.
The Revolution is dead
Unfortunately the effects of the Green revolution are fast wearing off and the true cost to our environment is only now becoming apparent.
The production advances of the Green Revolution were real. But by any yardstick the Green Revolution, while a true, almost global agricultural revolution, was not as green as many think - there was heavy collateral damage:
- Agricultural output did increase as a result of the Green Revolution, but the energy input to produce a crop increased faster - the ratio of crops produced to energy input has decreased. This is because High Yielding Varieties (HYVs) of seeds only outperform traditional varieties when adequate irrigation, pesticides and fertilizers are used
- Green Revolution agriculture produces monocultures of cereal grains. This type of agriculture relies on the extensive use of pesticides because monoculture systems - with their lack of genetic variation - are particularly sensitive to bug infestations
- The transition from traditional agriculture to GR agricultural meant farmers became dependent on industrial inputs - not made on the farm inputs. Farmers faced severely increased costs because they now had to purchase such items as farming machinery, fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation equipment and sedes
- The increased level of mechanization on larger farms removed a large source of employment from the rural economy. New machinery - mass produced gas tractors, large self propelled combines and mechanical cotton pickers - all combined to sharply reduce labor requirements
- Less people were affected by hunger and died from starvation - but many more are affected by malnutrition such as iron or Vitamin A deficiencies. Green Revolution grains do not have the same nutritional values as traditional varieties. The switch from heavily rotated multiple crops to mono cropping or dual cropping reduces total soil fertility and the nutritional value of our food
- The Green Revolution reduced agricultural biodiversity by relying on just a few varieties of each crop. The food supply could be susceptible to pathogens that cannot be controlled by agrochemicals
- Many valuable genetic traits, bred into traditional varieties over thousands of years, are now lost
- Wild plant and animal biodiversity was hurt because the Green Revolution expanded
- agricultural development into new areas where it was once unprofitable or too arid to farm
- The 20/80 phenomenon - the rapid increase in farm size and the concentration of production among large producers means 20% of producers generate 80% of the agricultural output
- As a result of modern irrigation practices, aquifers in places like India and the US mid west have become depleted. There are two types of aquifers: replenish able, most of the aquifers in India and the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain are replenish able - depletion means the maximum rate of pumping is automatically reduced to the rate of recharge. For fossil, or non-replenish able aquifers - like the U.S. Ogallala aquifer, the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer - depletion brings pumping to an end. In the more arid regions like the southwestern United States or the Middle East the loss of irrigation water could mean the end of agriculture in these áreas
- Green Revolution techniques rely heavily on chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, some of these are developed from fossil fuels which makes today's agriculture regime much more reliant on petroleum products
- Farming methods that depend heavily on chemical fertilizers do not maintain the soil's natural fertility and because pesticides generate resistant pests, farmers need ever more fertilizers and pesticides just to achieve the same results
- The increased amount of food production led to overpopulation worldwide
By 2050, the world's population is expected to reach 9.6 billion people. Norman Borlaug, the Father of the Green Revolution, is on record stating he believed that 100% adoption of Green Revolution practices (and adaptation of well advanced research in the pipeline), could feed 10 billion people on a sustainable basis.
"Future food-production increases will have to come from higher yields. And though I have no doubt yields will keep going up, whether they can go up enough to feed the population monster is another matter. Unless progress with agricultural yields remains very strong, the next century will experience sheer human misery that, on a numerical scale, will exceed the worst of everything that has come before". Norman BorlaugUnfortunately the high yield growth is tapering off and in some cases declining. This is in large part because of an increase in the price of fertilizers, other chemicals and fossil fuels, but also because the overuse of chemicals has exhausted the soil and irrigation has depleted water aquifers.
Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, to rice what Borlaug was to wheat, said: "Stagnation in productivity is due to depleting natural resources base such as a steep fall in ground water table, impaired water quality, increasing input cost - particularly diesel, deficiency of micro-nutrients in the soil, deteriorating soil health, and high indebtedness of farmers."
Consider also...
Narrowly focusing on increasing production as the Green Revolution did cannot alleviate hunger because it failed to alter three simple facts - an increase in food production does not necessarily result in less hunger - if the poor don't have the money to buy food increased production is not going to help them.
Secondly, a narrow focus on production ultimately defeats itself as it destroys the base on which agriculture depends - topsoil and water.
And thirdly to end hunger once and for all, we must make food production sustainable and develop secure distribution networks of needed foodstuffs.
Price spike in the cost of survival
There are currently 7.3 billion of us sharing the planet. Here's today's conditions for the world's poorest...
Because our agriculture system is concentrated on producing a very few staple crops there is a very serious lack of crop and production location diversity. Corn, wheat, rice and soy are the main staples and production is oftentimes half a world away from where the majority of the crop would be consumed. The world's extreme poor exist almost exclusively on what is a 'buy today, eat today' plant based diet - wheat, corn, soy or rice provide the bulk of their calories.
Almost half of the planets population lives on less than $2.50 a day - roughly 1.4 billion people live on less than $1.25 per day. On average developing countries citizens spend a much larger percentage of their wages on food than do their counterparts in developed nations. Some published estimates are as high as 50 to 60 percent of income going towards food.
When food prices soar these people lack the money to feed themselves and their children - when your living on a couple of dollars a day, or less, and most of your income already goes to feed your family there's no money to cover a price spike in the cost of survival.
Almost 1 billion people already go to bed hungry each night and somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 4 seconds - most on this tragic roll call are children under the age of five.
Malthusian pessimism
Malthusian pessimism has long been criticized by doubters believing technological advancements in:
- Agriculture
- Energy
- Water use
- Manufacturing
- Disease control
- Fertilizers
- Information management
- Transportation
Humans are currently withdrawing more natural resources then our Earth bank is able to provide on a sustainable basis. How much more? At today's rate of withdrawal we need another half earth.
The headline projection of the latest UN study says the world's population is likely to grow by another 2.3 billion, to 9.6 billion people in 2050 - that's 68.5 million people expected to be born every year between 2015 and 2050.
By 2030, food demand is predicted to increase by 50% and 70% by 2050.
- Global abnormal weather. Record setting droughts, flooding, hailstorms, cold snaps all exacerbated by climate change
- Exploding populations
- Eastern diets shifting to a western style one and food to fuel
- Aquifers are being depleted faster than natural refreshment rates
In his Nobel lecture of 1970, Borlaug stated: "Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the population monster. The rhythm of increase will accelerate...unless Man becomes more realistic and preoccupied about his impending doom."
The ghosts of Thomas Robert Malthus and Norman Borlaug haunt our broken agra machine and an almost indecipherable whisper can be heard...we warned them.
Food, water and air. Since they are kinda important to our well being shouldn't all three be on our radar screens? It's obvious they are on mine, are they on yours?
If not, maybe they should be.
Markets Insight
April 13, 2015 5:42 am
How to invest for renewed dollar strength
Mohamed El-Erian
Benign influence on global rebalancing or financial nuisance?
Advocates of global rebalancing would view dollar appreciation as helping European and Japanese economies struggling with sluggish economies and the threat of price deflation. It would also benefit emerging countries that have stumbled in re-orienting their growth engines away from dependence on external markets.
Renewed dollar strengthening would damp US corporate profits, undermining equity markets that are over-reliant on central bank support and the redeployment of idle cash into share buybacks, dividends and mergers and acquisitions. Vulnerability would also come from companies in emerging countries that have gone on a borrowing binge that has left them exposed to currency and debt maturity mismatches.
Fortunately, in many of these cases, the first line of defence would come from the sovereign balance sheets. As such, big global contagion risks would be limited to just a few particularly vulnerable spots in the emerging world.
The implications of all this for investors are clear. In positioning for renewed dollar strength, it may be best to resist the temptation of big trades. A superior approach would be to maintain larger cash balances while also exploiting relative price movements and highly differentiated positioning within asset classes.
That means combining exposures that favour the dollar versus other major currencies (particularly the euro) with hedged European versus US equities positioning and, on the government bond side, US bonds versus German Bunds.
Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic adviser to Allianz and chair of President Obama's Global Development Council
Money for Nothing
Daniel Gros
Heard on the Street
European Bond Markets Go Down the Rabbit Hole
Bond market is increasingly challenging fundamental tenets of investing
By Richard Barley
Updated April 13, 2015 6:43 a.m. ET
Europe is no stranger to the avant-garde, the experimental and the absurd. But until now, they have largely been the preserve of the arts. Now the financial world—and in particular the bond market—is increasingly challenging fundamental tenets of investing.
Take last week as an example. Switzerland became the first sovereign to issue a 10-year bond carrying a negative yield, raising 232.5 million Swiss francs ($237.2 million) with investors paying for the privilege of lending. Mexico followed with a 100-year €1.5 billion bond that was swiftly snapped up. By Friday the price of the bond had risen five points, and it was yielding less than 4%. In the eurozone, French five-year yields turned negative. And German yields continued to grind deeper into negative territory: yields on eight-year bonds briefly dipped below zero, while the two-year yield stands at minus 0.277%.
Any of these events would be noteworthy in and of themselves; that they all occurred within a week speaks to the highly unusual situation bond investors find themselves in. Increasingly, the time value of money, a core concept, seems to count for little. That leaves the market faced with questions that, not so long ago, would have seemed ridiculous.
For instance: can German 10-year yields turn negative? There seems no reason to believe they can't: the zero bound has ceased to exist. Previous targets for low yields that were dismissed as unrealistic have come and gone, and German securities have continued to rally. A year ago, 10-year yields stood at 1.53%; they are now around one-tenth of that level, at 0.16%. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing program, coming at a time when the German budget is balanced, is creating a scarcity of paper. The rise in government-bond yields expected by some—a feature of quantitative-easing programs in the U.S. and U.K.--has failed to materialize.
This week the ECB is likely to face more questions about its purchase program, under which it aims to buy €60 billion of bonds a month. The debate here has swung quickly from wondering whether ECB QE would be good enough to whether it is too effective. It has certainly made a splash: The average 10-year yield for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, weighted by the size of their economies, has fallen to just 0.61%, from around 1% at the start of the year. Meanwhile, eurozone economic data have put in a surprisingly strong showing, led by an apparent consumer revival—although inflation is still far off the ECB's target of "below, but close to" 2%.
But given that the ECB has only just started on a program that is intended to run until September 2016, it seems likely that President Mario Draghi will bat away any questions about changing tack.
For European bond investors, that means more bond-market curiosities probably lie ahead.
The absurd is becoming an everyday occurrence. All the more reason for investors to keep one foot anchored in the real financial world.
The American Consumer Will Never Be Back
by: Ilargi
However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There's reality, and then there's whatever it is they're smoking, and never the twain shall meet.
Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy's at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort, "US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough".
I know, sometimes they make it just too easy to whackamole 'em down and into the ground. But even then, these issues must be addressed time and again until people begin to understand, and quit making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons. People have a right to know what's truly happening to their lives, and their societies. And they're not nearly getting enough of it through the 'official' press.
So here goes nothing:
US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough
People are constantly exhorted to save, but as soon as they do, economists pop up to complain they aren't spending enough to keep the economy growing. A new blogger named Ben Bernanke wrote on April 1 that there's still a "global savings glut." Two days later the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the weakest job growth since 2013, which economists quickly attributed to soft consumer spending.The first problem with Coy's thesis is that even if people open their wallets, far too many of them will find there's nothing there. And Bernanke simply doesn't understand what savings are. His ideas through the past decade+ about a Chinese savings glut were always way off the mark, and his global - or American - savings glut theory is, if possible, even more wrong. In the minds of the world's Bernankes, there's no such thing as people opening their wallets to find them empty. If they don't spend, they must be saving. That there's a third option, that of not having any dollars to spend, is for all intents and purposes ignored.
The U.S. personal savings rate - 5.8% in February - is the highest since 2012. "After years of spending as if there were no tomorrow, consumers are now saving like there is a tomorrow," Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, wrote to clients in March. Saving too much really can be a problem when spending is weak.The little man inside, when I read things like that, tells me this is nonsense. So I decided to look up how the US personal savings rate is calculated. Turns out, it's another one of those whacky goal-seeked government numbers. At least, that's what I make of it. Mainly, though not even exclusively, because of things like this, from a site called Take A Smart Step:
[The personal savings rate in] November 2012 was 3.6%, this is not even close to where we need to be for financial health. This savings rate barely gives us enough to handle emergencies, and makes us as a nation weaker. The government calculates the personal savings rate as the difference between the after tax income and consumption of Americans. So they include not only retirement savings, but debt repayments, college savings, emergency fund savings, anything that was not spent.Making paying off your debt (i.e. money you've already spent) count towards your savings is a practice fraught with questionable consequences. But useful for economists, and accountants alike, no doubt. The problem with it is that it hides reality behind a veil. Because debt repayments are not really savings at all; people are not free to spend what they put into paying off debt on something else, like iPads, cars or trinkets. Not even on hookers or crack cocaine, for that matter.
For the vast majority of what is paid off in debt, there's no such thing as free choices. People pay off debt because they must. Or, to look at it from another, wide lens, angle, Americans would have to stop servicing their debt payments if they want to 'start spending' again.
Going through the numbers from various sources, I can see that the US personal savings rate is presently some 5.8% of pre-tax income, and debt repayment is close to 10% of disposable - after tax - income. I'm still trying to make those stats rhyme. But no matter how you read and interpret them, it should be clear that debt repayments are a large part of 'official' savings. Even if they really shouldn't be counted as such.
Of what remains in real savings, retirement/pension savings must necessarily be a substantial percentage, and it would be weird to call those things 'saving like there is a tomorrow', if only because they are about, well, tomorrow. But that seems to be the new normal: creating the impression that saving any money at all is somehow detrimental to the economy. A truly crazy notion, if you ask me. Let's get back to Bloomberg's Coy:
There are only two things you can do with a dollar, after all: spend it or save it. If you spend it, great - that's money in someone else's pocket.In someone else's pocket, but no longer in yours. Why would that be so great? It's only great if that someone has added value to something by doing productive work, not if you simply swap paper assets.
If you save it, the financial system is supposed to recycle your dollar into productive investment with loans for new houses, factories, software, and research and development.That notion of 'the financial system is supposed to' refers to theories such as those that Bernanke and his ilk 'believe' in. Theories that have no practical value. What is normal for many everyday Americans is crippling debt levels, and no such thing is recognized in these theories. After all, according to them, whatever amount of dollars you get in, you either spend or save them. And if you use them to pay off previously incurred debt, you're supposedly actually saving, even though you no longer have possession of the money in any way, shape or sense, nor a choice of what to spend it on.
But if no one's in the mood to invest more and interest rates are already as low as they can go (as they are in much of the world), the compulsion to save can sap demand and throw people out of work. For the U.S. economy, the good news is that the jump in the personal savings rate is probably no more than a blip. Three economists from Deutsche Bank Securities in New York explained why in a March 25 report called 'U.S. Consumers: Still Shopping, Not Dropping'. While noting a "deceleration" in consumer spending, they wrote, "we think that concerns about the outlook for the consumer are overstated." Their model of the U.S. economy predicts the savings rate will fall to 3% to 3.5% by 2017.Oh sweet lord. Now a falling savings rate has become a beneficial thing, even when and where savings are very low. Not saving will allegedly save the economy. How did that happen? If we may presume that debt repayments will continue virtually unabated, and there seems to be little reason to think otherwise, this means that by 2017 there will be just about nothing saved at all anymore in America. Which means there'd be very little left of the 'If you save it, the financial system is supposed to recycle your dollar into productive investment'.
The only 'growth' perspective America has left is to grow its debt levels continually, continuously and arguably exponentially.
Other economists have also concluded that the spending dropoff is temporary, which is why the slowdown in job growth, to just 126,000 in March, didn't set off many alarm bells. "Consumer spending is starting to look more and more like a coiled spring," says Guy Berger, U.S. economist at RBS Securities. One sign that consumers aren't retrenching: On April 7, the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose $15.5 billion in February, in line with the recent past.They got deeper into debt, and this is a sign they're not 'retrenching'? A coiled spring? Really?
According to Deutsche Bank Securities, the first reason to think consumers will resume spending is that their incomes are rising. Annual growth in average hourly earnings has averaged about 2% since 2010, which isn't great but does exceed inflation. With more people working as well, aggregate payroll outlays are up 4.9% from the past year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The rises in stock and home prices should make consumers more willing to live a little, say the Deutsche Bank authors. They calculate that households' net worth is almost 6.5 times consumers' disposable personal income. That's the highest ratio since before the housing crash.But that last bit is arguably all due to QE induced asset bubbles. Not an argument the author would make, I know, but nevertheless. Coincidentally, another Bloomberg article published the same day as the one we're delving in here is called: Why Your Wages Could Be Depressed for a Lot Longer Than You Think. Perhaps the respective authors should have a sit down.
No question, the high savings rate depresses spending in the short run. Purchases of durable goods, from cars to couches, remain well below their 60-year average share of GDP. But all that saving helps consumers get their finances in order, which will allow them to satisfy pent-up demand for that sweet new Ford F-150.No, no, no: they just paid off part of their debts. How can that possibly mean they'll go out and get a new F-150? In real life, they spent their money instead of saving it. Either way, they don't have it any longer to spend on a F-150. It would mean they need to get into new debt. On top of what they still have left over even AFTER paying down part of it.
Fed data show that financial obligations, including debt service, rent, and auto leases are about their lowest in comparison to disposable income since 1981.Hmm. According to Wikipedia, "Household debt as a % of disposable income rose from 68% in 1980 to a peak of 128% in 2007, prior to dropping to 112% by 2011." It's about 105% today.
So that's just a very weird statement. Someone's wrong, very wrong, and I think I know who that would be. Maybe Peter Coy conveniently ignores mortgage payments when he talks about "financial obligations including debt service, rent, and auto leases"?!
When consumers are ready to borrow more, it won't hurt that, according to the Fed's survey of banks' senior loan officers, banks are easing lending standards.See? That's what I said: they can only spend if they acquire new debt. They're just getting rid of the last batch, and it's going mighty slowly at that. Lest we forget, when debt as a percentage of income falls, that is due to quite an extent to people failing to make any debt payments at all, and losing their homes and cars. This is a dead economic model. This model is pining for the fjords.
These factors add up to an optimistic consumer.Oh, c'mon. What is that statement based on? That 'sky high' savings rate that is really just poor slobs paying off what they can in debt repayments so they won't get hit with even more fees and fines?
What I think these factors add up to is a delusional reporter. There is no excess saving. It's ludicrous.
As far as people have any money at all, they're using it to pay down their previously incurred debts.
And that gets tallied into their savings rate by the government's creative accounting methods. That's all there is to the whole story. But it will, regardless, induce a few more poor souls to sign up for more mortgages and car loans and feel like happy American consumers on their way down into the maelstrom.
It's sad, it really is. Maybe we should first of all stop referring to the American people as 'consumers'. That might help.
It's Time To Buy Gold
By: Ben Lockhart
- Despite a rally this week, the broad market remains on edge and any downside in equity markets is likely to spur safe haven demand for gold.
- Treasury bond performance has mirrored that of gold recently, showing that after a period in the wilderness gold is once again used as a hedge against equity market volatility.
- The gold chart pattern is set up very bullishly, and should the pattern play out we will likely see a $50 move to the upside in the near term.
Bulls should be happy this week as that pattern played out rather well. We gapped up on Sunday night and completed the initial move higher at just under $1225, fell back to $1193 by Thursday, and then began what may turn out to be the start of our next leg higher on Friday.
Moving forward to this week a breakout above $1225 would signify that the rally is in effect, but more than the chart pattern itself there are some fundamental reasons why I believe this rally will play out.
Are equity markets weak or strong?
I have said it often enough in the past, but when equity markets are weak investors often turn to safe haven type securities like treasuries (NYSEARCA:TLT), the volatility index (NYSEARCA:VIXY), and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD).
I wrote an article a few weeks back stating that although we may head a touch higher I thought the markets (NYSEARCA:SPY) would turn lower short term, and investors should be wary of a correction that may unfold. Well we declined over 4% from the date that was written, but given we have now rallied back up to test the highs again, a fair question would be to ask whether my outlook has changed.
My answer to that question is no -- we have so far not made any new highs since that forecast was made, and my expectation has not changed. I still perceive the greater risk to be to the downside in broad equity markets, and regardless of whether or not we do head slightly higher, I believe we are on the cusp of a decline and I'll be writing in more detail on broad equities in a separate article this weekend.
Despite weaker economic reports many Fed board members have stated that they still see a rate increase as likely this year, something the broad market is definitely sensitive to. Although the market seems to be pricing in a delay to that action, the next major report that shows improvement is likely to result in volatility. Couple that with company earnings that are expected to be relatively poor, and we have the recipe for a correction on the horizon.
More often than not, when the US market moves lower US Treasuries are bought as protection. This can be seen quite clearly in their respective charts, which show Treasuries peaking at the same time a low is formed in the S&P500 index.
Gold on the other hand has not received the same amount of "safe haven love" as Treasuries in the last few years, but are these relationships changing? Over the last 6 months gold has been purchased at roughly the same rate and time as TLT, something that is clearly evident when we compare their price patterns. Here we can see that their respective ups and downs are mirrored to more or less the same extent:
(click to enlarge)
Should we see some equity market weakness over the next couple of months, we are likely to see investors turn to treasuries and gold in equal measure. A lot depends on economic numbers and investor reaction to company earnings, and given the way both gold and TLT are currently set up, we can see that this is perhaps already being anticipated by the street. Both charts are in bullish posture, and both are good candidates for gains over the next month or two.
The important thing to note is that while treasuries were the safe haven asset of choice for investors seeking shelter from equity market weakness, the tide seems to be shifting in favor of precious metals and placing them on equal footing for the time being. This is an aspect of investor behavior we want to see continue, as for a sustained rally in gold prices to occur it needs to have the kind of investor appeal the bond market has commanded in recent years.
While the market may be pricing in a delay to a rate increase, it would appear investors remain cautious on equities and are anticipating weakness ahead. As it is, the S&P500 is up just 2.7% on the year to date and investor confidence is perhaps not as high as the sentiment indices reflect, given the poor relative performance in what is traditionally a strong part of the year.
Hedge Funds Are Heavily Short Gold
Have a look at the chart below taken from the Bloomberg terminal, which shows that hedge funds are currently as short as they have ever been in the last 6 years:
(click to enlarge)
You may want to note the dates of the last time their short positions were at this kind of extreme level and the result -- these were all dates where lows formed in the gold price and rallies ensued:
|% Hedge Fund Short
|June/July 2013
|21% rally
|December 2013
|18% rally
|June 2014
|9% rally
|November 2014
|15% rally
|April 2015
We can see then that the hedge funds are not always rewarded when they all run to the front of the bus to steer it; in fact, more often than not, the bus tips over and stops moving in their requested direction.
If you are currently short gold, a natural place to set your stop would be just above the last high, i.e., $1225, and should the price rise above that level we are more than likely going to see a fast spike higher as shorts rush to cover their positions.
Data Points
As usual, let's start with the commitment of traders report -- the latest figures are below:
At first glance you may be a little disappointed with the figures, as it shows that the commercial category have added to their short positions and reduced the number of their long contracts.
This is a little misleading, however, as it is the ratio of long to short positions that we are interested in.
Sometimes it is easier to see a visual representation, so I have included a chart of the commercial positioning overlaid with the gold price to show what happens when the ratio hits certain levels (chart courtesy of TDF Ameritrade & iSPYETF):
(click to enlarge)
Reviewing the figures, the actual numbers of contracts owned by the commercials is eerily similar to those held when I wrote my first article in mid-December 2014, just before gold rallied from $1180 to $1308 by late January.
If we do indeed see a rally in the short term you can expect to see the commercials add to their short positions, while the large and small speculator categories chase price by adding to their long positions the higher we go.
As of last week backwardation remained in place, although at relatively slight levels and perhaps not at levels that result in a consistent bid underneath gold prices. This does not necessarily concern me as I believe there to be a weight of evidence in place to support a rally, and I expect backwardation to subside over the coming month.
US Dollar
Although the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) rallied hard towards the end of last week, I am not so certain that the correction is over and we will make new highs from here. I would expect further consolidation into the summer before the next leg higher, but you should note that it is perfectly possible to test the highs before we test the lows.
Regardless, you should note gold rallied with the dollar on Friday and this can certainly be added to the growing number of factors that support an impending rally. Resistance for the DXY Dollar Index chart remains at 100 and 103, with support standing at 94 & 92.
The miners performed well last week and it was noticeable that they failed to decline to any real extreme even when gold fell from $1225 to $1193. The charts I provided in last week's article still apply with the same support and resistance levels in place for the Majors (NYSEARCA:GDX) and the Juniors (NYSEARCA:GDXJ).
The gold chart pattern is currently about as short-term bullish as it gets. Of course, patterns don't always play out as expected, but the set-up is there all the same. The latest chart is below:
(click to enlarge)
In the most bullish count we should now not break the $1193 low on any retrace, and the short-term target for the next move higher is $1275. This would be the strongest and quickest part of the rally should this pattern play out.
The overall target is between $1330 and $1380 for completion of our wave C. Once wave C completes, I expect a decline to new lows in gold.
If we do decline through $1193 in the short term (not my primary expectation), we have support just below at $1172 and $1163, and we could still maintain bullish posture and rally from those levels.
Declining through $1163 would be bearish overall and the count would need to be revised.
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Friedrich Nietzsche
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
Lao Tse
"There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen."
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Warren Buffett
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
J.P. Morgan
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Proverbio Chino
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
Helenio Herrera
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx
If you know the other and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
Sun Tzu
Paulo Coelho
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