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This guideline covers treatments for people aged 18 and over with unstable angina (recurring chest pain) or a type of heart attack called non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). It aims to ensure that people get treatment quickly. It recommends that as soon as NSTEMI or unstable angina is diagnosed, healthcare professionals assess people for risk of more serious heart problems in the future to guide their treatment.
In November 2013, recommendation 1.3.6 was changed in line with recommendations in NICE's guideline on myocardial infarction. Recommendation 1.5.11 was updated to take into account people with a learning disability.
This guideline includes recommendations on:
- providing information
- assessing peoples' risk of future adverse cardiovascular events
- antiplatelet and antithrombin therapy
- management strategies
Who is it for?
- Healthcare professionals
- People with NSTEMI or unstable angina and their carers
Is this guideline up to date?
NICE's guidelines on unstable angina and NSTEMI: early management (CG94), myocardial infarction: cardiac rehabilitation and prevention of further cardiovascular disease (CG172) and myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation: acute management (CG167) are being combined and updated. The new guideline will be titled acute coronary syndromes when published.
Guideline development process
How we develop NICE guidelines
This guidance updates and replaces recommendations 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 and 1.6 in NICE technology appraisal 47 (September 2002) and recommendations 1.1 and 1.2 from NICE technology appraisal 80 (July 2004).
Your responsibility
The recommendations in this guideline represent the view of NICE, arrived at after careful consideration of the evidence available. When exercising their judgement, professionals and practitioners are expected to take this guideline fully into account, alongside the individual needs, preferences and values of their patients or the people using their service. It is not mandatory to apply the recommendations, and the guideline does not override the responsibility to make decisions appropriate to the circumstances of the individual, in consultation with them and their families and carers or guardian.
All problems (adverse events) related to a medicine or medical device used for treatment or in a procedure should be reported to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency using the Yellow Card Scheme.
Local commissioners and providers of healthcare have a responsibility to enable the guideline to be applied when individual professionals and people using services wish to use it. They should do so in the context of local and national priorities for funding and developing services, and in light of their duties to have due regard to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, to advance equality of opportunity and to reduce health inequalities. Nothing in this guideline should be interpreted in a way that would be inconsistent with complying with those duties.
Commissioners and providers have a responsibility to promote an environmentally sustainable health and care system and should assess and reduce the environmental impact of implementing NICE recommendations wherever possible.

subset: commoncrawl


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Palos Verdes Peninsula
Palos Verdes Peninsula
Make Democracy Work
The League of Women Voters is a nonpartisan political organization encouraging informed and active participation in government. It influences public policy through education and advocacy.
The League of Women Voters...
- Acts as a force to create positive, lasting change in our communities.
- Empowers millions of voters to exercise their right to vote and to have that vote count.
- Advocates for positive change at the local, state, and national levels on issues that impact us all, such as land use, education reform, and government transparency and accountability.


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MINGORA, Pakistan - An official says Malala Yousufzai, who was shot by the Taliban for promoting girls' education, has urged Pakistan to reverse a decision to rename a college in her honour to avert militant attacks on students.
The 15-year-old who became a symbol of youth resistance to the Taliban made the request after students broke into the school, tore down Malala's pictures and boycotted classes in her home town of Mingora. They say renaming the college endangers their lives.
Senior government official Kamran Rehman said Friday Malala called him from London, where she is being treated for critical wounds from the attack on Oct. 9. The Taliban said it targeted her for promoting education for secular girls.
Malala's case won worldwide recognition for the struggle for women's rights in Pakistan.


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Welcome to St. Croix River Cruises
Treat your guests to a beautiful trip along the shores of Minnesota and Wisconsin on the Scenic St. Croix River. The professional, courteous staff and crew of our vessels will accommodate all of your needs. Catering is prepared from the kitchen of the Afton House Inn restaurant. Dinner is served buffet style. Full bar service available for your social time. Special sit-down dinner arrangements are available. Enjoy our excellent cruise menus. Cash Bar available on all cruises.


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Department of Education Promoting Mao on Website
On Friday at the National Center for Education Statistics website, the Department of Education posted a quote of the day from a great hero of the Obama administration: Mao Zedong. "Our attitude towards ourselves should be 'to be satiable in learning' and towards others 'to be tireless in teaching.'"
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) "Kids' Zone" website quoted mass murderer Chairman Mao Zedong for its "The Quote of the Day" earlier today.
Buzzfeed posted a screenshot of the initial quote:
Apparently, NCES took the quote down after news of it went viral on social media networks like Twitter. First the quote was memory-holed with the message, "Sorry there is no quote of the of the today" (the typo here likely a signal of their rush to take it down):
Then the quote was briefly replaced with one by Abraham Lincoln. Now the entire section has been removed from the page:
Following the incident, Buzzfeed reported that NCES Press Secretary Daren Briscoe issued this statement:
"The Kids' Zone website hosted by the National Center of Education Statistics earlier today featured a poorly chosen quote, intended to highlight the importance of teaching and learning, in the 'Quote of the Day' feature. This feature, which automatically generates one education-related quote per day from a database of quotes last updated in 2007, has been temporarily suspended pending a review of the database's contents."
So the quote was just "poorly chosen?" Really?
During China's communist revolution, it is estimated Zedong was ultimately responsible for murdering nearly 40 million people, but some have even estimated that number at 80 million or more.
How, of all departments, the U.S. Department of Education failed to realize they were quoting one of the greatest mass murderers in human history specifically to our kids is inconceivable.
Who are they going to quote next? Adolf Hitler? Joseph Stalin?
For those who still aren't clear on the reality that America's education system has been purposefully set up to systematically destroy millions of children's minds with the ultimate goal of indoctrinating them into a socialist one-world government, check out former Senior Policy Advisor for the U.S. Department of Education Charlotte Iserbyt's book, "The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America" available in the Infowars Shop.
As of this afternoon, the quote had been removed.


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Soft Corals: A Primer
Soft Corals are a family that lack a defined calcium carbonate skeleton, maintaining their form primarily with calcium 'splinters' in their flesh.
Many, many of these corals are easily kept by beginners, but some are far from it. Most are adaptable to different levels of lighting and current, though in this list I'll give you the ideal.
Keep in mind that a handful of soft corals, when properly kept, can quite quickly grow to a very large size.
Now the species. You'll forgive me for starting with my favorite.
Called Gold Crowned Toadstool in shops is Sarcophyton alcyondae.
From a heavy trunk with a rounded cap, long, flowing bronzy gold polyps tipped in bright light gold emerge in the mornings. Over time, that cap will grow into a wide folded form. This is one soft coral suitable for competent newer reef keepers.
Like all commonly available Toadstool Corals, they can and will grow quite large; several feet tall. Though just semi-aggressive, their sheer size can shade other photosynthetic corals to their ruin.
Take great care in moving a Toadstool coral into its final position, since its frags are fragile. Site it in the lower region of your reef, so it'll have plenty of room to grow. Obviously a quite large and tall aquarium is necessary if one wishes to keep this or any other of the Sarcophyton species.
The Gold Crowned Toadstool can adapt to lower medium to high lighting; take care moving its frag into higher light, since it can be damaged. This toadstool coral prefers a low medium, pulsing, chaotic current. Like most soft corals, once a year or so the Gold Crowned Toadstool will regenerate. It will refuse to open for several days, then will shed its outer layer. A keeper must be on hand to remove the remains of that discarded layer.
One can feed their toadstool coral, since it'll enhance its health and appearance. A phytoplankton drip will generate the Rotifers this coral will gladly eat, and a defrosted Mysis shrimp placed gently among the center of the polyps late in the day will be consumed. However, hand feeding should be done no more than twice a week, while a phytoplankton drip can be continual.
Keep in mind that all Sarcophyton species corals can produce a toxic substance to poison any nearby corals, so either space other corals far away, or place your Toadstool Coral 'downstream'. Aggressive protein skimming is vital if one wishes to try their hand at one of these easily-kept soft corals.
Commonly available and another coral suitable for nascent keepers is Devil's Hand, Lobophytum pauciflorum
From a flat, palm-like surface, long, finger-like projections radiate, making the coral appear to be an open hand. A scattering of small, white tufted polyps are scattered about; most are on the 'fingers'. Originally Devil's Hand Coral was available in shades of brown mustard, but several other colors can be found these days.
The presence of the polyps during the day means this coral benefits from regular feeding. A phytoplankton drip will generate a healthy colony of Rotifers that this coral eats, and soon it'll add more and more fingers as it grows. Devil's Hand tops out at about dinner-plate size in the average aquarium, sometimes larger, very well kept and fed.
This coral prefers medium light, so if one uses metal halide-based, or one of the LED fixtures now in vogue, its frag should be placed in the lower third of the aquarium. Current should be moderate, and pulsing and chaotic, since Devil's Hand occurs in the turbulent fore reef in nature.
Devil's Hand also goes through periods of inactivity, refusing to open for some days, and sheds a skin. This usually occurs once a year, sooner if the coral is well fed.
There are several other members of Lobophytum available, all under common names describing finger color and/or shape.
Dark and light yellow is Alcyonium fulvum, the Yellow Encrusting soft coral.
Though in shops its frag is less than impressive as a single arm of this coral, it grows beautifully properly kept. Best placed on the substrate, this coral will steadily encrust it, producing finger-like stubby arms covered with thousands of tiny, bright yellow, corallites.
Unlike the previous two species Yellow Encrusting and others of its genus feel slimy rather than leathery. That's because they collect algae and debris in a thin mucus layer, and when A. fulvum shrinks at night, it voids that layer and generates another. That means protein skimming should be large and capable if one wishes to try this easily kept coral.
One should be aware when first introduced this coral will produce much mucus, which can damage corals downstream. A keeper should site the coral where it is going to stay, since the excess mucus will be produced almost whenever you move it.
One can feed their Yellow Encrusting coral as it will enhance it's growth and appearance. A live phytoplankton drip maintained constantly will duplicate the turbid, micro-organism rich, waters it comes from. Though it'll stay small if you don't feed it, if you do, it'll grow into a real showpiece as it grows and encrusts your substrate.
Though moderate light is fine, this coral can be placed higher in the tank, even in halide-based lighting, in a sandy spot. I wouldn't place it higher than half way, though.
It likes moderate, pulsing currents that are randomized, like by aiming outflows towards the glass or live rocks.
There are several other as yet unnamed by science members of the genus Alcyonium. They go by the common names of Chili, which is red, and some finger corals, which are either encrusting or has finger-like arms emanating from a short trunk.
In a well-established and stable tank, Yellow Encrusting is very hardy, thus is a good choice for a newer keeper.
Another easy-keeper is Colt Coral, Cladiella species.
Highly recommended for nascent keepers that have an established aquarium, Colt will grow well and rapidly. From a short common base, many arms grow in all sorts of directions as the coral makes sure each arm can receive light. The arms appear fluffy as this coral has thousands of very prominent corallites. It's available in shades of browns, grays and yellows.
Like the above, this coral produces a mucus layer. When first introduced it can exude a lot, and it can severely damage corals that are downstream of it. Thus, if a keeper plans on buying a frag of this coral, it should be one of the first soft corals in their tank. That allows it to settle down and become established.
The prominent coralites indicates this coral is an avid feeder, so for best health and form, establish a live phytoplankton drip to replicate the soup of micro-life like this species lives in nature.
The more light this coral gets the more compact and attractive it grows. Though it can be kept in lower light, in middle to high light it lives and grows best. Current should be moderate; not enough to move the arms, and pulsing and chaotic. Adaptable, it can grow in high to lower light, and low to medium current, as long as Colt is patiently moved there. That makes it ideal for newer keepers.
Like the above species, this coral shrinks at night to void wastes. Thus, protein skimming is highly recommended, and should be rated for at least twice your aquarium size.
Even more attractive and kept the same way is Purple Finger, Cladiella australiensis.
This import from the Solomon Islands and Jakarta grows into a gorgeous purple berry color, with thousands of small, bumpy corallites all over it. Though it can be kept precisely as the above species, Purple Finger instead grows into an encrusting form, with short, defined finger-like arms across its length. Thankfully it is available captive raised.
In the evenings this coral puts out olive green polyps. Avid feeding as described above will enhance the health, growth and appearance of this lovely, hardy coral.
One of my very favorite soft corals.
The sole non-photosynthetic soft coral in this list is also one of the most challenging to care for, are the Carnation Corals, Dendronephytha species. In a scale of 1 to 10, with ten being the most difficult to keep, the Carnation Corals are a 9.5.
Though in books and shops these corals look less than impressive, well kept and fed they can be perhaps the most beautiful of the soft corals.
Found on the back reef at depth where copious zooplankton continually comes up from below, Carnation can have translucent flesh where the calcium carbonate splinters can plainly be seen. A graceful base has flowing arms with off-branches and with fluffy red coralites. That describes mine.
If one wishes to keep one of these gorgeous soft corals, constant feeding is warranted. A live phytoplankton drip, established some months before trying a Carnation coral, is essential, since these corals need a continual flow of live microalgae. The drip must be maintained constantly, day and night. Also, enriched live baby brine shrimp should blown toward the coral (via turkey baster) every evening to trigger the feeding polyps of it. See my how to culture manual on enriching live baby brine shrimp.
For reasons I'm unaware of, Carnation usually fails when hair algae is in the tank.
No light is needed for these corals, so site it in a shaded area in your tank. Current should be medium, pulsing and turbulent. You want the current to carry micro foods through the coral's area in a pulsing, periodic flow.
Available in shops are usually D. rubeola or D. aurea. There are others in the Dendronephytha genus available that have yet to be named to science
Obviously, a deeply experienced and dedicated reef keeper who has a large, very well established reef aquarium, and is capable of maintaining the constant micro-food flow necessary, should attempt one or more of these beautiful corals. Stability of temperature and natural sea water levels must be constantly stable.
Properly kept, Dendronephytha, isn't terribly difficult to keep if fed correctly and kept in natural sea levels of minerals as close as possible to that of the coral reef. Stability of temperature is vitally important.
Another soft coral suitable for competent beginners is the extremely hardy Kenya Tree Coral, Capnella species.
From a smooth trunk sprouts long, flowing, highly branched, arms that are studded with polyps. Colors available are shades of brown, cream, green and blue. Often with a contrasting color on the polyps. In shops the frags don't look like much, but over time it can grow to be quite decorative.
The only caveat with this coral with this coral is it must be fed, since it relies a good deal less on its symbiotic algae in its flesh as other corals. A constant live phytoplankton drip established about a month prior to purchasing the frag will reward you with outstanding growth and health. Like most corals, Kenya Tree can live a very long time, many decades. It can cover an area of upwards of two feet with those flowing arms.
It likes moderate to high lighting; take great care moving the frag to the latter, since it can be damaged moving it too quickly into bright lighting. I kept it in the lower third of in my halide-based lighting. Light is less important to it than feeding, so a phytoplankton drip is the easiest, not to mention the cheapest, way to keep this coral fed.
You'll want a moderate, pulsing current that is randomized, like by pointing an outflow at a rock.
This is another soft coral prone to regenerating occasionally. It'll refuse to open for some days, then void its outer layer. Make sure you are on hand when it does that, so that discarded layer can be removed.
Kenya Tree is an easily kept coral, as long it is fed as I describe.
Another coral suitable for beginners are the Finger Corals, Sinularia species.
Arising from a thick base are branches that look rather like an antler form, since they have several off-branches. Contrasting colored coralites cover the branches. One of the easiest of the soft corals to keep, as Finger Corals grow rapidly in reasonable conditions. Those beginners competent in FOWLR or reef keeping should have little trouble keeping Finger Corals.
Finger does best in moderately bright light, and likes a pulsing, chaotic moderate current that slightly moves the branches. One should site the frag lower in the tank, then carefully move it to the mid-reef where the light and current are ideal. Best temperature is 77 degrees for Finger Corals.
You may see Finger listed as Colt in shops, but Finger has a heavier trunk and the branches aren't as fluffy as Colt. Finger grows into an antler form while Colt's branches are almost random.
Though not absolutely essential, one can feed Finger Corals. A phytoplankton drip maintained will help generate micro critters these corals eat. Alternately, enriched live baby brine shrimp can be added in the evenings, since Finger polyps can take those too.
There are many colors and forms of Finger Corals, usually sold describing color, like Green Finger, Mauve Finger. There are several different forms as well in the Sinularia genus, but in my opinion the antler form is the most attractive.
Next are the Pulsing Corals, Xenia species.
By pulsing I mean the stalked polyps open and close almost in unison. That aids in respiration and feeding, though the latter doesn't mean Xenia needs to be fed.
What they do need is a steady supply of the natural sea water trace element Iodine. That must be maintained at .06 ppm constantly to keep Xenia and its relatives from crashing. Sometimes crashing means finis, but often the coral will recover when Iodine returns to the natural level.
Usually occurring in a cream color, feathery polyps cap a long steam. They can emerge from a domed base or in a branched form. Xenia is very attractive and eye-catching properly kept.
What it likes is moderately bright light, so carefully move it's frag over time midway up your halide-lit reef. A brisk moderate current will help Xenia respire and void wastes, so make sure it's pulsing and chaotic.
When happy (well kept), Xenia can grow terrifically fast, and rapidly colonize live rock. Not aggressive, it can be damaged growing too close to aggressive corals.
Xenia should be the only soft coral in your tank, since it usually is inhibited and refuses to pulse when other soft coral species are present. Apparently they produce a substance that stunts Xenia.
As long as the Iodine trace element is steady and light and current are ideal, Xenia should grow very well for you, and it always enchants visitors seeing it pulse.
Similar to the above are the Anthelia corals.
Usually displaying longer feathery polyps than Xenia, Anthelia also grows into a more attractive form, with a long span of polyp-topped stalks issuing from a base. It also occurs in more colors than Xenia, since I've long had one that is powder blue in one of my reefs, one of the very few soft corals I keep these days.
Anthelia can pulse when it cares to. Also, it enjoys the phytoplankton drip I supply my reefs with, and is quite the showpiece.
Anthelia is quite easy to keep, though of course it needs the trace element Iodine steady for optimal health.
One of my long-time favorite soft corals.
Next are the Polyp corals, another family ideal for beginners.
There are the colonial Button Polyps of the Zoanthus genus, and the Sea Mats of Palythoa, in which the polyps emerge from a fibrous encrusting mat.
The polyp corals have short stalks topped by circular polyps edged with a ring of tentacles. If you can think of a color of Polyp Coral, there's probably one available in it, usually with contrasting colors in center of the polyps. Those from Australian waters are particularly vivid. The polyps can be small or large, depending on the specimen. The Polyp Corals are all in the Zoanthiniaria order, hence the common name Zoas for these corals.
One should be aware that both Button Polyps and Sea Mats contain palytoxin in their tissue, so I very highly recommend wearing aquatic gloves to handle them, since that toxin can make you very sick should you have a cut on your bare hand, and it can kill the very young and very old. Wash the gloves with a dilute bleach solution and rinse under warm water until the bleach smell is gone after handling the polyp corals. What's ironic is there are a couple species of sea slug that eat those corals, transferring palytoxin to them to reduce predation.
They like moderate light and medium, pulsing chaotic current. Given them, the polyp corals can really grow and encrust nearby live rock. Given a phytoplankton drip and they will explode in growth, and one may have to prune their polyp coral regularly to prevent it taking over the aquarium. The better quality and intensity of light the more colorful the polyp corals are.
If natural sea waters levels and temperature is steady, Polyp Corals should grow very, very well for you. Whenever anyone asks me for a coral to start with, I always point them toward Polyp Corals.
I highly recommend the Polyp corals to competent beginners.
Classically hydroid in shape are Yellow Polyps, Parazoanthus gracilus.
A colony-type soft coral, Yellow Polyps aren't connected to each other, but they do group closely together. As the common name describes, the coral has long, slightly translucent yellow slender stems capped by long, thin tentacles. Probably via chemical messenger, Yellow Polyps are always all out together, or retracted together, based on aquarium conditions and time of day. The better water quality and aquarium stability the more open Yellow Polyps are during the day.
They prefer moderate light and a lower medium current that gently moves the polyps.
This is one soft coral that enjoys a regular (weekly) feeding. Enriched baby brine shrimp gently blown towards the coral will be taken. Though it's not essential, Yellow Polyps can benefit from a phytoplankton drip, since it'll enhance the health and number of the polyps. Such feeding will also result in great growth, so you can easily frag this coral to share with friends or sell.
Kept properly Yellow Polyps are extremely hardy. An excellent beginner coral.
Our last soft corals are of the Clavularia genus.
Commonly available in the hobby are the Star Polyps and Clove Polyps.
Star Polyps emerge from a purplish, rubbery mat that are long and grass-like. They go under the common name as Daisy Polyps, and they are available in a multitude of colors. An encrusting coral, when it grows too far, the mat can be cut and tied to a small piece of live rock where it'll soon attach and encrust it.
Clove Polyps have thicker stalks capped by a wide feathery polyp making it look somewhat like an Anthelia. It retracts into a bumpy wine-colored mat in the evenings. Clove Polyps are quite popular these days, and are available in many different colors, usually with contrasting polyp centers.
Both types like a moderate light, so about a third the way up in a halide-lit reef. Current should be moderate, pulsing and randomized; not enough to disturb the polyps, but just enough that they very smoothly flow.
They can also benefit from feeding, A defrosted Mysis can once a week or so be placed gently among the polyps where it'll be consumed. A phytoplankton drip will enhance color, growth, and health.
Both types are suitable for competent beginners. On a scale of 1-10, they are a 1 - easiest.
Thus ends the soft coral primer. Questions are of course, welcome.


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Gamers really need more games like Far Cry 3. There needs to be more go-anywhere, do-anything" shooter games. Too many FPS games on the market have become like action flicks, forcing players to move from point A to B and then see a cutscene after mowing down countless AI bad guys who all follow a few set patterns. Fans of the FPS genre want more freedom in their games. Luckily, GoozerNation has a few suggestions for gamers looking to move beyond the standard FPS.
this game has a fantastic sp and a very good mp. love it
It's not that great of a game. Sure, I enjoyed it for the first half, then it just fell into that repetitiveness that was in the first game.
We need more games with a great, compelling story that makes you want to continue playing. MORE SANDBOX isn't necessarily the answer. Story, Pacing, continuous challenge...THAT is what we need.
I'm less and less interested in story these days. Good gameplay is way more important.
When you unlock all the safe houses all the enemies disappear.You are left wondering around with 50 guns and nothing to shoot at.I hate when games do that!
i don't need to cut more leaves and find more viewpoints, thank you.


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Hardwood flooring. One of the most important design elements in your home or business is the type of floor you'll choose for your home. Residents of Middletown NY don't take this decision lightly. Regardless of lifestyle, wood flooring adds value and comfort to any décor. Considering all the choices available to homeowners today, deciding which hardwood flooring will be right for you isn't easy.
Floor Coverings International of Middletown NY is here to help. If you're you searching for info about prefinished hardwood flooring, site-finished floors, or tips on refinishing or sanding wood floors, we can help you. We can even provide wood floor maintenance and how-to advice for caring for different kinds of woods and their various finishes.
Hardwood Flooring Benefits
Only Hardwood Flooring offers such warmth, beauty, value and great design flexibility. In Middletown NY wood flooring enhances room décor and offers ageless beauty that increases in value in your home. In fact, in a national survey of real estate agents, 90 percent said that houses with wood flooring sell faster and for higher prices than houses without wood floors.
Types, Styles & Species
Hardwood flooring is available in a variety of styles, colors and designs to meet the high demands of discerning buyers with busy lifestyles. Choose from factory finished, unfinished, solid wood flooring, engineered hardwood, strip, plank, parquet, and acrylic impregnated. Consider oak flooring, maple, bamboo or cherry hardwood floors for your home near Middletown NY.
Choosing the style that is best for you is an important decision, and will be based on a variety of issues including your lifestyle, décor, and the area in which you live. Consider consulting with a wood flooring professional in your area to weigh the advantages of each alternative.
Hardwood Flooring Finish
Lasting beauty requires minimal care with today's wood floor finishes. These finishes are usually urethanes and remain on the surface of the wood and form a protective coating. Surfaces finishes are popular today because they are durable, water-resistant and require minimal maintenance. Various gloss levels are available.
In Middletown NY hardwood flooring choices are made simple with the help of the professionals at Floor Coverings International. Contact us today for a free, in-home consultation.


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Question: What is the law for a cracked windshield? Is a crack that runs horizontal from side to side below the middle about two inches against the law?
Answer: State laws differ, but most states in the U.S. require that a windshield be free of any cracks or issues with the safety glass that would cause your vision as the driver to be impaired. Only in Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina, your deductible is waived for windshield replacement. Massachusetts previously waived the deductible as well, but no longer does.
For example, the Wisconsin Department of Transportation states that you can drive a car with a cracked windshield but it depends on where the crack is. It cannot be in the critical area (windshield wiper area). Wisconsin Transportation Code 305.34 is about windshields. Here it states:
(1) Every motor vehicle manufactured after January 1, 1936, shall have a windshield made of safety glass. Such glass shall be plainly marked to identify it as safety glass or a certification from the glass supplier stating that the glass is approved safety glass shall be carried in the vehicle during operation or vehicle inspection, or both.
(2) The windshield shall be of sufficient size to provide adequate protection for the driver and shall be in place when operating on a highway.
(3) The windshield may not be excessively cracked or damaged. A windshield is excessively cracked or damaged if:
(a) The windshield has a crack inside, or which extends inside, the windshield critical area.
(b) The windshield has cracks which extend into any area more than 8 inches from the frame.
(c) The windshield has stone or shot damage with a diameter in excess of 1/2 inch in the windshield critical area or in excess of 11/2 inches in diameter in any other area.
In Florida Section 316.2952 of the Florida Statutes, provides that a vehicle must have a windshield, and section 316.610 states that it is a civil infraction to drive a vehicle that is in an unsafe condition because of faulty or defective equipment that endangers the driver or other members of the public.
FL courts have held that it is a violation of this section to drive when the cracked windshield impedes a driver's vision. The size and shape or length of the crack is not specifically laid out in the law and thus up to the discretion of the law officer to determine if the crack impairs the driver's vision when driving.
To find out your state's specific laws regarding windshields and cracks or impairment of vision contact your state's Department of Motor Vehicles.
You can file a claim to repair your windshield if you have comprehensive insurance.


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Black Pepper Lavash
Crackly flatbread spiced up by black pepper.
This Middle Eastern cracker bread is loaded with cracked black pepper, giving it a pleasant bite. For a fun start to any meal, combine it with our Watercress Walnut Dip. Game plan: The dough can be made 1 day ahead and kept in the refrigerator until ready to bake.... Read More
View Recipe


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Fortune (Unabridged)
- $21.99
- $21.99
Publisher Description
A mother's ultimate sacrifice... A brother's dark obsession... And one woman's desperate fight for survival...
Something dark and dangerous had long shadowed Skye Dearborn's life. She had seen the fear of it in her mother's eyes. It was there, locked in her memories of blood spilling across a gleaming floor. In the sound of her own screams. And in the terror she'd felt the night her mother disappeared.
Then fortune smiled on Skye. With help she was able to put the horror behind her and look to the future.
But now that same fortune is leading her into the arms of danger - and back into the nightmare of her past. For the evil that has haunted her dreams has a human form - a man obsessed with Skye since her birth. A man who alone knows who Skye Dearborn really is.
And now that he has found her, he will do anything to keep her.


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It's all good in the hood at Footasylum, with our selection of kids' hoodies featuring the hottest gear from the biggest brands. A hoodie is essential in any kids' wardrobe. The perfect layer for winter and the ideal cover-up in summer a good hoodie can make or break a wardrobe.
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1248.0 - Australian Standard Classification of Drugs of Concern, 2011
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/07/2011
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As some responses are assigned supplementary codes rather than the codes of particular drugs, it is important that in verifying input codes, manipulating data, aggregating data to higher level categories and deriving output items and tables, the full range of valid codes are included in all specifications. The valid range of codes for the main classification structure comprises the following:
Regardless of the level of aggregation envisaged for the dissemination of statistics, the ABS recommends that data be captured, classified and stored at the four-digit level. This will allow the greatest flexibility for the output of statistics, enable more detailed and complex analysis, facilitate comparisons with data using different classifications and preserve information to provide maximum flexibility for future use of the data.
However, because of confidentiality constraints, it may not be possible to output data at the lower levels of the classification in all instances. The use of a standard classification framework will nevertheless enhance data comparability even though it may not always be possible to disseminate data at the most detailed level.
The hierarchical structure of the ASCDC allows users the flexibility to output statistics at the level of the classification which best suits their particular purposes. Data can be presented at the broad group level, narrow group level or the base level. If necessary, significant drugs within a narrow group can be presented separately while the remaining base level units within the narrow group are aggregated. The same principle can be adopted to highlight significant narrow groups within a broad group.
It should be noted that drugs from different narrow groups should not be added together to form an aggregation as this corrupts the application of the classification criteria and has repercussions on data comparability. Similarly, narrow groups from different broad groups should not be grouped together.
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Spitfire - Desert
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The National Anthem of Bhutan
In the Kingdom of Druk, where cypresses grow,
Refuge of the glorious monastic and civil traditions,
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Contributed by: I m Drukpa using our anonymous system.
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Ad and marketing creatives
Death to Branding!
Imagine you're naming a new brand — an alcoholic beverage, say. You know the standard marketing dogma: a brand name should promise romance, adventure, well-being, financial success, sex appeal. What are the odds that you'd ignore that advice and instead choose a name that says … death?
Believe it or not, the odds are very good. Death — heretofore the ultimate taboo in marketing — has become trendy.
Think I'm crazy? Let's go shopping.
At your local liquor store, you can find bottles of Black Death Vodka, Death's Door gin, Death & Taxes beer, and red wines from Australia named Dead Letter Office and Dead Arm. There's an upscale New York City boîte called Death + Company, and a popular San Francisco Bay Area restaurant called The Dead Fish.
A cosmetics website sells Dead Sexy No. 6 perfume. A business called Dead Sexy Nails, in Southern California, will give you a manicure (to die for, presumably). You can buy sportswear from companies called Board 2 Death, Death Grip, and Death Nail. (The last name is an eggcorn of "death knell.")
If you're in Key West, Florida, you can stop by Baby's Coffee for a bag of Death by Coffee, a proprietary blend of beans. If you're in Boston and have a baby grand to transport, you can call Death Wish Piano Movers (motto: "We're So Good, It's Scary!"). Pretty soon, if the trademark record is to be trusted, we'll be seeing a line of toy cars from Mattel called Dead Fast.
There's a special subset of death-invoking hot-sauce names, dominated by a company called Blair's Sauces that makes Sweet Death, Original Death, Mega Death, Ultra Death, Beyond Death, and Pure Death. A prize for the best pun and most clever packaging, however, goes to CaJohn's Fiery Foods in Westerville, Ohio, which makes Lethal Ingestion.
The virtual world has also embraced the underworld. An app called Write Or Die promises to kill writer's block. ("Putting the 'prod' in productivity," the tagline promises.) And a new social network, DeadSocial, allows users to leave "secret and scheduled messages to be published to your social networks AFTER YOU DIE."
What accounts for this morbid torrent? And when did death lose its penalty in the marketplace?
Here's one plausible answer to the first question: Marketing is all about getting attention, and "death" is nothing if not an attention-getter. "Death" in a brand name tells customers that you're bold, edgy, and unafraid to cross marketing's final frontier. A product named Black Death or Ultra Death is not for the average or the timid; Death Wish Piano Movers says "This is a dangerous business — hire a professional!" These brands borrow their dark appeal — and their bravado — from band names like Megadeth (formed in 1983) and Death Cab for Cutie (1997). (Death Cab for Cutie goes back even further: it was the title of a song performed by the Bonzo Dog Doo-Dah Band in the Beatles' 1967 film Magical Mystery Tour — which in turn was named for an invented pulp-fiction crime magazine mentioned in a 1957 book about British culture.)
Some "death" brands put a lively spin on their names. Death's Door is the name of a geographic feature in Wisconsin: the passageway between Washington Island and the Door Peninsula. The "dead" in "Dead Letter Office" is a metaphor for "undeliverable"; the label on the bottle tells an elegiac story about postal clerks. The Dead Fish restaurant has a downright charming name-origin tale: When the Italian-born chef was a child, he'd ask his nonna — "a little Italian grandma with a big heart" — what kind of fish she was making. Nonna never could remember. "She would shrug her shoulders. IT'S A DEAD FISH!" Cue the laughter.
With some of the names — Dead Sexy, Dead Fast, DeadSocial — "dead" is an intensifier meaning "absolute" or "very." The usage came into English around 1660: In Britain, expressions such as "dead jolly" are common, and on both sides of the Atlantic we say "dead earnest," "dead certain," "dead reckoning," and "dead ringer" without implying a literal fatal event. DeadSocial — which is based in London — takes advantage of the "very" meaning while also communicating the "social after death" function.
When was the death-name trend born? It's hard to trace, but Death by Coffee may provide a clue.
In 1981, a Los Angeles restaurateur, Jeffrey Fields, opened a restaurant called Les Anges that featured "la Mort au Chocolat" on the dessert menu. The French name translates to "Death by Chocolate"; the dish contained "multiple layers of chocolate genoise, mousse, ganache, and meringue," topped with chocolate crème anglaise, according to a Wikipedia entry. (Wikipedia also mentions earlier "Death by Chocolate" desserts in the Cleveland area, possibly inspired by a fictional dessert by the same name on local children's television show, Barnaby & Friends. I haven't been able to confirm the Cleveland connection.) Death by Chocolate continues to show up on dessert menus and is a popular recipe on many cooking websites; it's also the title of an influential cookbook by Marcel Desaulniers and the name of a rock band based, fittingly enough, in that chocolate-lover's paradise, Switzerland. Death by Coffee is an obvious descendant, as are Death by Peanut Butter (a trademark for desserts) and Death by Architecture (a listing of global architecture competitions).
Thirty years of enjoying Death by Chocolate have not completely inured Americans to death's chill; after all, many people prefer euphemisms like "passed away" when they talk about actual demise. But familiarity with death brands seems to have bred not contempt but fondness. It's a true death-defying act.


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Put your ideas in order
- SIGNA Cabinet Wall System: put your ideas in order
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Pizza Obsessives: August "Gus" Mueller
Slice interviews with folks who are mad about pizza.
Slice made a Twitter connection with today's pizza obsessive back during the KettlePizza Insert testing in June. Through his blog shapeof.com, it quickly became apparent that we had a real pizza obsessive on our hands. Get to know August "Gus" Mueller a little better during today's q&a!
Name: August "Gus" Mueller
Location: Everett, WA (just north of Seattle)
Occupation: Programmer / Founder of Flying Meat Inc (software for the Mac)
URL(s): Mueller Pizza Lab, a blog of my pizza experiments; flyingmeat.com
What type of pizza do you prefer?
I guess what I like the most would be considered "Neo-Neapolitan". I'm not a big fan of lots of toppings, and I love pizzas cooked hot and fast.
The Pizza Cognition Theory states that "the first slice of pizza a child sees and tastes ... becomes, for him, pizza." Do you remember your first slice? Where was it from, is the place still around, and if so, does it hold up? On that note, has your taste in pizza evolved over time?
I don't remember what my first taste of pizza was, though I'm willing to bet it was a Chicago style deep dish pizza (I grew up in St. Louis, and we had a handful of places that served it). I'm not a fan of deep dish pizza these days at all, so I think I just ruined the Pizza Cognition Theory.
I do remember making homemade "pizza" as a kid, and I can still taste it to this day it was so memorable. Though I will probably never make it again, I'll happily describe it: we rolled out biscuit dough (the kind you can pick up in the cold sections of the grocery store), mixed powdered spaghetti sauce mix and tomato paste for the sauce, then came slices of pepperoni, and after that whatever cheese we had around. It was horrible, but it was just sooo good at the same time. I'm sure I just made half your readers sick, but hey, I was a kid and some kids will eat any type of pizza you give them.
I can tell you what pizza ended up changing me forever though, and that was Shakespeare's Pizza in Columbia, MO. When I was going to college in Columbia I think I probably ate there about once a week, it was simply so good. I even remember the very first pizza I ever ordered (pepperoni and green pepper), and who I was with! And the restaurant was always tons of fun—you could even buy balls of dough for a dollar to take home and make your own pizzas with, which we did a number of times. What kind of restaurant owners do that? You could tell they loved pizza and if you weren't eating it at Shake's, they at least wanted you to have some good dough to use at home.
It was sometimes hit and miss though, and I eventually found out that they were making huge batches of dough and would use it as soon as 15 minutes after mixing it together. So if you got unlucky and got some dough that hadn't risen enough, things tasted odd. Of course the alternative was running out of dough for the night like some restaurants do, and that would just make for a lot of very sad college students. It was usually really great though.
What's your favorite topping or topping combination?
I'd have to say it's The Merlin, which is a creation of my own (pictured above). Whole wheat mixed with high gluten flour, topped with olive oil + garlic + basil + jerk sauce, provolone cheese, and finally pepperoni, jalapeños, and pineapple. It has the spicy sweet thing going on, and it's really really good. I've had multiple people say it's the best pizza they've ever had.
What one thing should NEVER go on a pizza?
Broccoli. I have a friend who likes that on his pies, and I just don't understand this.
Where do you go for pizza in your area?
Everywhere. I don't have a regular place, but I do like exploring around a bit. Down in Seattle we have a number of wood-fired places that make traditional neapolitan pizza. I recently went to Tutta Bella which actually has the official Neapolitan Pizza certification. It's decent pizza, but nothing to get worked up about.
What I really love is watching pizza people work. For instance, last week I went to a little pita bakery near my office. They have a gas heated pizza / bread oven in the back where things are setup a bit like a Subway restaurant. While they serve mostly gyros and such, they do have a Mediterranean pizza that is decent. The fun part was talking to the lady making my lunch, watching her putting it in the oven, constantly watching the pizza and adjusting it for an even cook, and firing up the oven a bit at the end to make sure the top cooked just right. And the tools they use look like they slapped them together themselves—but it all works!
What's the farthest you've traveled for pizza?
Probably just a couple of hours, from St. Louis to Columbia MO for a pie from Shakespeare's. I was in San Francisco a couple of weeks ago and ate at Una Pizza Napoletana—but that wasn't the primary purpose of the trip so I guess it only half counts.
We know from the Merlin that you are a home pizza maker. So, what recipes do you use? Can you share with us a little on your methods.
Absolutely. I started making pizza at home about 7 years ago when I moved away from St. Louis. I really really missed Shakespeare's, and after mail ordering a couple of pizzas out here (yes, they do that!). I decided to see if I could make something as good myself. (BTW—don't ever get mail ordered pizzas. It's all kinds of wrong and I knew it at the time, but I just had to try it.). After a couple of years and interrogating a former Shake's employee, I finally managed to make some pizzas that I was happy with. But then I didn't stop, and eventually I started making better pizzas.
And from there it was like falling down the rabbit hole. I learned how to crank my home oven up to 800f with the broiler (you can read about it and watch a video here), I discovered good flours, mixing flours, different techniques like raising the dough in the fridge vs. using a little seedling heat mat to speed up the raising time. I've made some great pizzas using no-knead techniques as well, had internal debates on provolone vs. mozzarella, and become very angry at a local grocery store because they can't seem to keep a certain brand of amazing pepperoni in stock. It's kind of a disease.
For years I've been wanting to build a wood fired oven as well, I just don't know where I'd put the thing. But recently I discovered the KettlePizza and had to get one- the idea of being able to have charcoal or wood fired pizza in my back yard without a huge warmup time seemed perfect. However my first experiences with it were a little disappointing, as I think it is with most people. I wasn't about to give up though, and I started hacking the crap out of my weber to see if I could make the kind of pies I loved. You can read about my various experiments with it on my pizza blog, but in the end I think having a super big stone on top made of cordierite, modifying the lid so it sits a little lower, and adding a door to the underside of the weber is the way to go.
And of course I didn't stop there. This past summer I put a Forno Bravo Casa 2G90 WFO in my back yard, and cooking in this guy (which I've named Dante) is like a dream come true. It's a bit slower to heat up than the KettlePizza, but making pies in it is such a joy.
Awesome! Did you build it yourself or have some help? When did you finish it?
I built it mostly myself. My wife helped me lift the dome pieces into place— and wow those things are supper heavy (we really should have had a 3rd person help us lift it). But laying the foundation, pouring the heart, building the enclosure- was all done by me.
It took about a month to build, and to be honest—it's not quite done yet. I still need to finish the front (I want to put some tile around it the opening), and then finally put some sort of real siding on it. But it has a solid roof on it, which is good because the rainy season just started up here.
You said prefer that your preferred pizza type is "Neo-Neapolitan". Is that mostly what you are making? And how frequently are you firing up that oven?
Yea, it's pretty much all I'll make anymore. I still love other types of pizza, but if I'm going to spend time to put everything together, its got to be a neapolity style pizza. There's nothing better than a pizza with basil and pepperoni cooked in 60 seconds or less.
I use it about twice a week, though I wish I could use it more. I've discovered that the trick to making a WFO sing is to keep it warm all the time. Even though the manufacturer will say that it only takes 1-2 hours to bring it up to cooking temp, I find that's not enough. The difference between having a fire going for just a couple of hours vs. 8-10 hours is pretty stark.
And do you cook anything besides pizza in it?
Yep! I've been making bread in it, and I've cooked salmon in it a couple of times. If I've made pizza for lunch, by the late evening it's the perfect temperature for reheating your leftovers.
What do your family and/or friends think of your pizza madness?
My wife is pretty amused most of the time, but when I go through periods where I make a pizza every other night for a couple of weeks- I think she gets exasperated.
My friends love it—I've had a couple of pizza parties where I'll just come up with crazy topping ideas, or maybe make a pie without cheese because someone can't eat dairy.
Now that you have the WFO, has your house become a more popular with friends and neighbors as a dinner spot?
Yea, a little bit. When I first got the oven up and running I was constantly making more pizzas than I could eat. So I started randomly delivering pizzas to my neighbors, who were more than happy to take the extra pies off my hands.
What's the most unusual pizza you've ever eaten, or maybe even come up with in your home experiments?
I had a dessert pizza a couple of years ago. It was... interesting.
I've made a number of vegan pizzas for friends and family as well- those can be pretty unusual. Surprisingly a pizza with red curry sauce, squash, cauliflower, and a couple of other traditional Indian ingredients is pretty good.
Anything you'd like to get off your chest?
I spent almost twice as much on my new WFO as I was planning. It's worth it though.
I'd say it is! Congrats on living the WFO dream, man. Thank you very much for taking the time to give us some insight into your obsession and we hope to see more of you around these parts!
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Book Review
Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus (New York: Prometheus Books, 2012), by Richard Carrier
Table of Contents (Reviewed chapters are bolded)
- The Problem
- The Basics
- Introducing Bayes's Theorem
- Bayesian Analysis of Historical Methods
- Bayesian Analysis of Historicity Criteria
- The Hard Stuff
1. Some Caveats:
I've had the pleasure of knowing Richard Carrier for the past seven years or so. Over the course of our friendship we've exchanged a lot of ideas and had some interesting conversations, and at times we haven't seen eye-to-eye (I think he drops one too many 'F' bombs on occasion, but maybe I'm just a bit more sensitive after hanging around with septuagenarians and Baptists in the academy). I've read a lot of his work and, suffice it to say, with the exception of perhaps Thomas L. Thompson, no one has had more influence upon my academic pursuits than Richard. I hope he takes that as a compliment (he's also read a lot of my work, so goodness knows he probably doesn't want that blame)! So when he told me some years back of his two-volume project–one volume handling historical Jesus criteria and the other dealing with the historicity of the figure of Jesus–I couldn't wait to get my copies.
To be clear, my enthusiasm for the release of these volumes has nothing to do with blind or uncritical devotion to a particular individual or agenda. I don't belong to a school (though I do consider myself a minimalist and had the pleasure of working with others who call themselves minimalists as well), I don't belong to any label (I am not an atheist like Richard, nor am I out to disprove Christianity or any such nonsense), and whether or not the figure of Jesus has a historical core is of no serious consequence to me or my research. But I do have my own biases. And this is where I think the Richard's preface to his work needs to be highlighted.
I like the Jim West Method of Book Reviews, so I shall continue to update this page as I read through and review each section rather than creating a new post for each section I review.
2. Initial Impressions of Proving History and a Brief Review of Carrier's Preface
This book appears to be a triadic tour de force; in this ambitious volume alone, Carrier educates his readers (1) on the nature and value of doing proper critical history, (2) on the value of Bayes Theorem and logical analysis, and (3) on the current methods of Historical Jesus scholarship. No wonder he had to split the content into two volumes! I am not as math-inclined as I should be–a flaw among many in the field of Biblical Studies–though I have some standard knowledge about the basis of Bayes Theorem. My grasp of it is still pretty basic and I'm looking forward to reading those chapters dealing just with the general applications of the theorem (For those curious, Carrier has a brief explanation of its use here, a blog post here with all sorts of nifty links, and, for those not easily offended, a video demonstration from Skepticon IV).
Now onto the Preface. He is open and honest about the purpose of the book, which he writes:
All historians have biases, but sound methods will prevent those from too greatly affecting our essential results. No progress in historical knowledge, in fact, no historical knowledge at all, would be possible without such methods. Hence, the aim here is to develop a formal historical method for approaching this (or any other) debate, which will produce as objectively credible a conclusion as any honest historian can reach. One need merely plug all the evidence into that method to get a result. That's a bold claim, I know; but the purpose of this book is to convince you, and if in the end you are convinced, provide the background necessary to implement the method I propose. All I ask is that you give my argument a fair hearing.
As noted above, Richard admits he is not without bias, as none of us–no matter what we want to believe–are without it. One of my favorite lines in his preface, and one I have used on occasion, is when he outlines presuppositions within historical Jesus scholarship.
I have always assumed without worry that Jesus was just a guy, another merely human founder of an entirely natural religion (whatever embellishments to his cult and story may have followed). I'd be content if I were merely reassured of that fact. For the evidence, even at its best, supports no more startling conclusion. So, I have no vested interest in proving Jesus didn't exist. It makes no difference to me if he did. I suspect he might not have, but then that's a question that requires a rigorous and thorough examination of the evidence before it can be confidently declared. Believers, by contrast, and their apologists in the scholarly community, cannot say the same.
Some may argue that rigorous and thorough examinations have already taken place, but remember that the purpose of Proving History is to analyze the current criteria to determine if they are even sound! Time, reading, and careful analysis of Carrier's arguments will determine if he has been successful in that regard. So far I believe the work has a lot to accomplish. Looking forward to getting into the first chapter soon enough.
3. Chapter 1: The Problem
Carrier follows up his preface with an overview of the problems, that is to say, the issues that currently plague historical Jesus research. Rhetorically, this is a great place to start. While most scholars are probably already aware that problems exist, I doubt many laypeople are aware of them, and even scholars might not know just how deep seeded the problems are and how much their conclusions are hindered by them. But Carrier aply points out, and argues this convincingly that none of these problems are new, nor have they been avoided in the past. I've argued similarly, along with Thomas L. Thompson, in our forthcoming edited volume 'Is This Not the Carpenter?'.
He also notes that scholars have done little more than develop additional methods and produce additional portrayals of Jesus which, if anything, have countered any attempt for clarity and any call for a more narrowed consensus. But Carrier presses the point even further, stating quite directly:
When everyone picks up the same method, applies it to the same facts, and gets a different result, we can be certain that that method is invalid and should be abandoned. Yet historians in Jesus studies don't abandon the demonstrably failed methods they purport to employ. This has to end.
And his conclusion to this point is one I found particularly refreshing:
If historians can't agree on what that method [i.e., the best method – ed.] should be, then their whole enterprise is in crisis, because agreement on the fundamentals of method is the first essential requirement for any community of experts to deem itself an objective profession.
I find that last bit to be dead on. Indeed, his point is two-fold here: if the methods used are coming to different results then clearly the methods are determined subjectively, not objectively. While many historians might agree with that claim, Carrier's solution is simple and obvious; if subjective methods aren't working, and they clearly aren't, then the next step must be more objective. And I'm sure that many of my colleagues would agree that subjectivity is indeed dangerous when one is making an objective type of claim (i.e., that 'Jesus existed historically', rather than say 'Jesus may have existed historically'–but more on this when I review a later chapter).
Carrier's solution, as you already know, is Bayes's Theorem. He makes it clear that in the coming chapters he will defend various aspects of the structure of the Theorem, its application, and its value overall not just for historical Jesus scholarship but for historical research as a whole. But before he can even do this, he must make it clear that everyone is on the same page. This makes sense, since carrier's method appears to rely heavily on logical constructs and statistical math–to bring everyone to the same level of understanding before proceeding with the meatier data is a no-brainer.
4. Chapter 2: The Basics
The function of Chapter 2 serves as a means to get everyone on the same page with how historical research, that is proper historical research, is done (or perhaps, specifically, how carrier views historical research). Carrier lays down what he considers to be the 12 axioms of professional historical investigations. He writes that these axioms should be accepted by everyone in the field, and they aren't at all that hard to accept. Notions like 'All conclusions muist logically follow from evidence available to the observer' to 'overconfidence is fallacious; admitting ignorance or uncertainty is not' are general common attributes of all historical inquiry and most of Carriers colleagues will have no trouble
agreeing with them.
Next he produces the 12 rules. The rules are not axiomatic, but Carrier recommends these rules be followed to the best of human ability (though he admits that everyone fails to follow them from time to time, including him). These rules include the following of the 12 axioms, continuing to better ones understanding of the periods they study, confirming all interpretations using the original languages, and so on. Again, these may be idealized rules but, overall, Carrier writes that to better oneself as a historian, we should strive to follow these rules to the letter. I don't think that many scholars would disagree with these either. Though I can understand when Carrier urges us not to assume what isn't in evidence. It seems very simple, but it is a very easy rule to break.
The interesting part of this chapter is that Carrier uses his background as a professional philosopher to bring to the table a set of ethical clauses for the historian that I think are often taken for granted. While scholars know they should be following the logical path of evidence, some don't actually verify they are but presume it. I see this mistake made consistently by maximalists (particularly those who argue for, say, a historical Moses, or a historical united monarchy, or a historical patriarchal period) and also with historical Jesus scholars (they'll make the fallacious mistake of 'possibly, therefore probably/certainly' as Ehrman makes in his book Did Jesus Exist [Introduction, p. 4]).
After Carrier is done setting out these axioms he then goes into explaining the basics of Bayes's Theorem.
5. Chapter 3: Introducing Bayes's Theorem
For this section, I recommend a piece of scrap paper. Though Carrier does a fantastic job of simplifying everything, it may be useful to write down the formula so you can make notes around it as you read through this section. This will be extremely helpful as you go through the rest of the book as a reference and a good way to use the formula as you go (and in turn to gain experience using the Theorem). I know most historians probably do not need scrap paper to read, but one of the values of Carrier's book is not simply that it educates you about this new method, but engages you to think about history while utilizing it. So it is a bit of an educational tool in this regard which, in all honestly, makes me feel like Carrier should have charged more (as it is a tutoring device in the use of historical statistics as much as it is a guide for the historian). That said, let's move on to the meat of the chapter.
Carrier starts off his chapter with an account of the disappearance/eclipse of the sun from the synoptic Gospel accounts which takes place during the passion narratives. He analyzes in typical historical form why this account is improbable and unlikely. He notes, rather brilliantly, that the Gospels talk of this event as having an effect over the whole world, yet even with how unlikely it is that it occurred (indeed, that is probably didn't), not a single person argues against it or points out how erroneous the Christians were for including it in their narratives:
This entails, in turn, that the Gospels, even from the very beginning, contain wildly unbelievable claims of inordinately public events that in fact never occurred, yet were never gainsaid by any of the millions of witnesses who would surely have known better. I'll consider the significance of that fact in my next volume.
We return to this event at the end of the chapter, but before that he explains some rather important details to the reader. Carrier's followup section deals with the intersection of science and history and raises some very important points, like the fact that science and history are in many ways symbiotic systems. Science is dependent upon history to maintain and catalog events of the past (especially studies) and history is dependent upon science for a strong and useful method with which to maintain accurate information about the past for future scientific studies.
A point I agree with completely that is worth noting in this review is his statement that essentially we are analyzing theories which address now just what happened, but why it happened. In effect, he argues, the function of the historian is not that different from the function of a scientist in that we seek to understand and explain three basic questions of our subject of interest:
(1) If our theory is false, how would we know it?
(2) What's the difference between an accidental agreement of the evidence with our theory, and an agreement produced by our theory actually being true—and how do we tell the two apart?
(3) How do we distinguish merely plausible theories from provable ones, or strongly proven theories from weakly proven ones?
Carrier states that Bayes's Theorem is what is needed to effectively answer them in the best manner possible.
And he starts the next section off by directing readers to important studies in Bayes's Theorem as a method for historical research which I find very useful. But he also makes the very astute point that we actually intuitively already use Bayes's theorem without even knowing it. When we make the claim that something is 'improbable' or 'plausible' we are actually using a very basic form of Bayes's, but we often fail to account for the rest of the formula which is necessary for determining if what we're stating from intuition is arbitrary or sound. This, Carrier argues, is why actively using Bayes's is far more superior, and produces superior results, than simply guessing. Even when we make educated guesses they are still merely guesses at best, which is what we do when we arbitrarily apply a statement of probability–like saying something is 'likely'–to an event of the past without using the theorem. Which overall is a very strong motivation for using the theorem in the first place. Interestingly enough, he raises another point which I had forgotten, which is that Bayes's theorem is already used in archaeology to analyze the data.
The bulk of this section then goes into detailing the what's-what of the Theorem, breaking down every part in lay terms. this is where the scrap paper comes in handy. The formula looks like this:
P(h|e.b) = __________P(h|b) x P(e|h.b)__________
[ P(h|b) x P(e|h.b) ] + [ P(~h|b) x P(e|~h.b) ]
It may look daunting (which even Carrier admits), but he does not fail to explain the meaning in a way even the most mathematically challenged could understand.
And thus he returns to the sun disappearance narrative and analyzes the same discussing using Bayes's Theorem. Carrier argues:
With BT, instead of myopically working out how we can explain all the evidence "with our theory," we start instead by asking how antecedently likely our theory even is, and then we ask how probable all the evidence is on our theory (both the evidence we have, and the evidence we don't) and how probable all that evidence would be on some other theory (every other theory that has any claim to plausibility, but especially the most plausible alternative). Only then can we work out whether our theory is actually the best one. If we instead just look to see if our theory fits the evidence, we will end up believing any theory we can make fit. And since that will inevitably include dozens of theories that aren't actually true, "seeing what fits" is a recipe for failure. In fact, this is worse than failure, since we will have deceived ourselves into thinking the method worked and our results are correct, because "see how well the evidence fits!" That's the result of failing to take alternative theories of the evidence seriously. That this is exactly what has happened in Jesus studies (as shown in chapter 1) should be proof enough that historians need a new method. One that actually works. And as far as I can see, BT is the only viable contender.
He then goes on to explain why Bayes's theorem is so important and why math is exceptionally important to historical research. And he isn't the first do so, but he is the first to apply these methods-so far as I can tell-to Biblical Studies. He even goes so far as to address all the main criticisms he has received about the use of the theorem and uses math to show how those criticisms fail.
This chapter is just too good to ignore. I want to write more but if I do I'd essentially just be repeating what Carrier argues in a less functional and coherent manner. Frankly, I am looking forward to the rest of the book.
More anon.
Filed under: Belief, Reviews, Scholarship | Tagged: Book Review, historical jesus, Proving History, Richard Carrier |


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$100m gift bolsters AIDS fight
Businessman will start institute to find vaccine
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The hunt for an AIDS vaccine, a scientific quest that has stumped infectious disease researchers for two decades, is receiving a $100 million boost from a Massachusetts technology magnate, whose gift will create a Boston institute fusing the expertise of doctors, engineers, and biologists.
Stunned by scenes of desperation he witnessed in HIV-ravaged South Africa, Phillip Terrence Ragon is spending a considerable chunk of his fortune to accelerate research for a vaccine that would slow the relentless spread of the virus that causes AIDS and now infects more than 33 million people worldwide.
The money, $10 million a year for the next decade, will go to Massachusetts General Hospital but be shared with other research powerhouses, including Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. An announcement of the gift, the largest in Mass. General's history, is expected this morning from Ragon, 59, the founder and sole owner of InterSystems, a Cambridge company that provides database software to hospitals and other industries.
The AIDS vaccine research center is modeled on the Broad Institute in Cambridge, which explores the frontiers of genetic science, and, much like the Broad, will foster collaborations among specialists who do not usually spend much time talking to one another.
By doing that - and by freeing scientists from the onerous pursuit of federal grants - Ragon, known as "Terry," said in an interview that he hopes to provide researchers the running room to chase concepts that might be dismissed by more risk-adverse donors.
"You might say back in Newton's time, you could be a solo physicist conducting research," said Ragon, who has an undergraduate degree in physics from MIT. "But today, you need projects where large groups of people come together to focus on advancing the state of science."
Since the dawn of the AIDS epidemic more than a quarter of a century ago, the formulation of a vaccine has loomed as the single greatest goal, and proved the most daunting failure, of HIV scientists.
Leaders in the field predicted that the Phillip T. and Susan M. Ragon Institute - named for the technology entrepreneur and his wife, who are making the gift jointly - will help to reinvigorate an enterprise hit by crisis in 2007 when a vaccine trial by pharmaceutical giant
"This is exactly what the field needs," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the federal agency leading the vaccine search. "There will be colleagues from MIT involved who think about these things from a very different perspective."
The donation arrives at a propitious moment: With the economy reeling, institutions that rely on the generosity of philanthropists are watching wallets slam shut and endowments wither.
"Hopefully, this will make a difference in the lives of millions of people with HIV and other infectious diseases," said Dr. Peter Slavin, president of Mass. General. "And I hope that it will inspire other people to remember the importance of philanthropy even in difficult economic times."
The institute will be presided over by Dr. Bruce Walker, an enthusiastic AIDS researcher as comfortable in a tuxedo at a fund-raising gala as he is in the white-jacketed realm of the laboratory. By dint of his credibility as a scientist and his passion as a physician, Walker managed to convince Ragon that his money could make a difference in a field in which billions of dollars had already been spent.
At the same time, Walker enlisted scientists who had figured that, given all the money and brain power already invested in the search for an AIDS vaccine, there was little they could contribute.
Arup Chakraborty, a chemical engineer at MIT, recalled that he arrived to conversations with Walker beset by skepticism. " 'What would I add to it?' was my question," Chakraborty said.
But he listened, hoping that his computers and mathematical equations could help further dissect the machinations of a virus that outfoxes vaccines by rapidly changing its genetic makeup and by hijacking its victims' immune system. Other MIT scientists will attempt to use tiny devices made of plastic, metals, or other materials - known as nanoparticles - to deliver vaccines with greater precision.
"This was a problem that MIT couldn't walk away from," Chakraborty said.
The scale of the challenge is sobering. With most other viruses, researchers have a clear window into what it would take to design an effective vaccine, learning valuable lessons from patients who become infected but manage to fight off the virus.
"You get measles and you live or you die, and if you live you're immune to it for the rest of your life," said Dr. Seth Berkley, president of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, another consortium of scientists. "That's true for most diseases, but it's not true for HIV."
Scientists such as Dr. Dan Barouch of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center are exploring a variety of approaches to stopping the AIDS virus.
In some cases, they are trying to prime the immune system to better recognize the virus as an invader and stop it in its tracks. In other cases, they are working on vaccines that would detonate cells after the AIDS virus has taken them hostage.
"The scientific challenges associated with making a safe and effective HIV vaccine are unprecedented," said Barouch, who is working with the Ragon Institute.
Walker, affiliated with Mass. General and Harvard, heard of Ragon from a database salesman working for Ragon's company in South Africa, where the doctor conducts some of his vaccine research. One thing led to another, and Walker found himself sitting in Ragon's Cambridge office.
The gregarious researcher set about discussing his work in South Africa, also inquiring whether Ragon's company would like to underwrite research.
"I said, 'The best way for you to understand this is to come over and see it,' " Walker said.
Two weeks later, in May 2007, Walker and Ragon were aboard a flight to South Africa.
Once there, the tech company owner sat in an exam room with a doctor, each patient sicker than the one before. He'd seen privation before, as a teenager living in Colombia, where his father had been assigned by the Air Force. But what he saw that day, young adults preparing for death, moved him like nothing before.
Ragon told Walker: "I don't see how anyone can see what I saw the last couple of days and not feel that they have to get involved."
After several months, Ragon and his wife decided to create a research institute focused initially on research into an AIDS vaccine. More broadly, its mission is to harness the immune system to prevent and cure diseases.
As both Ragon and Walker tell the story, it was Ragon who popped the question.
"I went to talk to him about it, but he got caught up in telling me about the research," Ragon said.
"Eventually, I said: 'Look, I'd like to spend this money. Let's talk about what we can do.' "
Stephen Smith can be reached at email@example.com.


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Escape to the Movies: The Purge
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I don't like Romney and I don't like obama either. now that I made my position clear I have one question. What exactly did mentioning romney do to add to this review?
It was terrible and I still apologize to the friend i dragged to it back in the day.
It literally had the most unsympathetic, uninteresting victims you could ever know,
I saw trailers for this and thought it looked cool. Too bad it's a disappointment...
Whoa, whoa, wait... "his young SON takes pity on a wounded homeless man"... Don't you mean his DAUGHTER?! At least, I THOUGHT it was his daughter from the trailers.
It's the joker theme i noticed you didn't lump dark knight in there cause
and who is we? I don't have a giant problem with everyone who's upper class but
Well grow out of....
Wait your going to trust movie bob to your friday night?... Noooo..
I intend to go watch it. I had a feeling the movie was gonna be narrow in scope.
He's a bitter old man that can't be trusted with this sort of task only to be used for entertainment value.
This was a much better movie when it was called "Judgement Night".
good movie. or at least as good as a movie as you'll get with Dennis leary.
I'm guessing this is close to straw Dogs which dragged alot ass and was trying
So I guess you would jumped in to a more of a The Purge series (kind of like 24 well 12 hours showing different perspective of different people spending their purge)?
I was hoping that the movie would be good after being advertised on every other Youtube video in the past week or two.
Of course I'm going to trust MovieBob on movies, I always trust MovieBob's take on movies. He has no real reason to be wrong about what he says, not to mention, his line of thinking generally tends to match up with my own
Also, if you genuinely thought that about this review, then all I can say is you're either very shallow-minded, you COMPLETELY missed the point of what Bob was getting at, or you just have a general MovieBob bias, which is surprisingly common. Seriously, "I already saw RoboCop, so I don't need to see this"? Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, pardon my language and sorry if I'm coming off rude, but it's like you're putting words in MovieBob's mouth and just outright ASSUMING he's blinded by nostlagia. In fact, I'm going to outright boycott this movie and tell everyone I know not to see it just to piss you off! I'm literally so freaking outraged by this asinine assumption that I-
Oh... whoa... sorry, I got carried away there. I didn't really mean most of that, but seriously, your logic is flawed and you missed what Bob was getting at entirely with the review. After all, Bob's come out and said before that yeah, he has nostalgia bias, but he also addressed the fact that the past isn't sacred numerous times, and unlike so many others, he can actually look PAST his nostalgia goggles and judge movies on their own merits, and with this movie, he makes it clear that the movie takes it's awesome premise and squanders it. Hell, he only mentions RoboCop once, and NOT as a comparison to RoboCop, but as a means to say yeah, sometimes heavy-handed messages need to be delivered, this movie just delivered it incredibly poorly.
So yeah, I won't see this movie, because unlike YOU, I know when Bob's genuine and not just biased.
I refuse to watch this one on two grounds- on one hand the commercial for this movie was so overplayed online so early and so long that I wouldn't watch it even if I was interested. And I'm not, because the premise is, (sorry Bob), TEEEEERIBLE. I know people. I've seen them. People's sense of over inflated justice is too high for something like the premise to ever happen in real life. That's why we'd rather send perpetrators to jail than properly rehabilitate them, even when the numbers say that would be a better thing for society.
Wait, this premise sounds familiar.... Wasn't there a similar "holiday" in Dishonored's backstory, where people would be able to do anything, kill anyone and do other socially unacceptable things for a day each year for what they were later unaccountable for? It had something to do with new year, and the core of the idea was that it was a day that "did not exists", and therefore whatever happened on their day also "didn't count". Is this a parallel development, or did one get the idea from the other?
So does the movie bother to explain how
The idea of the movie sounds retarded. Any crime goes? Yeah, guess your not worried about the economy when its those poor defenseless people that are dustman, work in the sewers and are cashiers in stores. Without lower class or poor people, this world would collapse because rich people are not going to work those crappy jobs. The whole idea of The Purge only works if your 10 years old without a grasp of how society works. Anyone with half a brain cell can see this movie idea is dumb. Even on the big scene of major crime like hacking etc still doesnt work. Unless the story based on the people rising up to take back their country from those in power, its an idea left undone.
In an echo of everyone else here, I am so sad. This seemed like the grownup version of the Hunger Games. I thought this would be a really neat commentary on human instinct, class disparities, political manipulation, and all that, and that the "rescuing a dude" plot I saw in the trailer was going to be "when everyone is out to get you and you're aware that the human race is a steaming pile of murderous shit, how do you bring yourself to take a chance to save someone?"
Instead, it's a slasher movie.
So damn lame.
Oh yeah, and as for everyone who says this is a dumb concept, so is 1984 and every other dystopia. They're exaggerations. No, no matter how much you really want to claim that certain policy makers are going to turn America into Brave New World, it's *not going to happen,* and same with this movie's concept.
I once heard that every work of fiction gets to have one count of "just suspend your disbelief, dammit" and that's it. Lord of the Rings has "you're living in a world with elves and orcs." Every dystopia ever...has the "this would never happen" point.
Really, Bob. A shot at Mitt? Still bitter about winning the presidency?
Moviebob, you usually annoy me with your constant praise of marvel movies, but to find out your fave movie is robocop you have garnered some massive respect points. As for the film i wasnt expecting much. Just because the government says you can commit crime doesn't mean people will, such a bs premise if i ever heard one.
The teenage daughter has a boyfriend who's 18 and apparently so much older than her making her possibly the most hyper developed presumably 14/15 year old in the world. (The actress is 23 and without sounding too crass she has a whopper pair on her and spends the entire movie in a catholic school girl outfit)
Anyway. Her father doesn't approve. During the purge, after the house has locked down it turns out the boyfriend snuck in to "have a talk" with her father about the being together. Actually he shoots at the guy, misses, gets shot dies and goes on not mattering for the rest of the movie.
I don't know what I'm offended by the most.
I imagine it's for protection from other homicidal lunatics. Basically, other people who might want to kill you will see the entire group of people with the same masks and realize you've got back-up. Or they really did just think it was spooky and I'm giving this movie too much credit.
OT: Nope. Those masks are dumb as hell and that last clip Bob showed, with the woman walking through a hallway and a masked guy popping in through the window, made me laugh. Not the kind of "this seems like it might be fun" laugh, but rather the "I can't believe they thought was a legitimately scary shot" laugh. Looks terrible even as a dumb slasher flick.
The character is "uber scary capitalist swine who hates the poor". To be honest this actually may have been a defense of Romny from Bob. I think what he's saying is the character is such a heavy handed strawman that the only way the creators could have been less subtle is by having it actually be Mitt Romney.
Also why does everything have to have a point? It was a joke in an entertainment series with a focus on film criticism giving a review of a shitty slasher movie. What part of any of that has a noble purpose?
You would wear a mask because you don't want to become the victim in 365 days. Your neighbour's dog has been crapping in your yard, you've told him dozens of times to stop it, but he just ignores you. So during The Purge, you kill the dog. That's going to annoy the neighbour, so during the next Purge he does something to do in retaliation for you killing his dog. The next Purge you up the ante. Etc., Etc.
I'd wear a mask too, simply because the purge is a re-occurring event.
I wouldn't want anyone I might have 'wronged' during one purge to remember my face, and then have a year to spend planning on specifically targetting me during the next purge.
Are you guys complaining about the Romney name drop not paying attention at all? He said this movie was completely un-subtle based on the theme that purge like activities are better for one class of person and bad for another. Romney is was the front runner for the party that publicly caters to a specific demographic. He didn't say "hey guys, I hate Mittens so I'm going to bash on him here", he said this was artless and heavy handed.
I understand sensitivity, but context is everything.
Dude. It's based on a Russian Novel with the same idea. It could have been so so so much better than this slasher movie it turned out to be.
Well people are making a party out of it, aren't they? No different to Halloween.
That was my biggest concern about the movie honestly.
It seems to me the only reason they worse the masks is just to be scary and creepy, but it looks like it just fell flat. I miss good slasher movies. :(
I knew this movie would be crap. Said basic slasher movie, with an interesting premise.
If the purge was to really happen I would expect less murdering and far more heinous unspeakable boning.
I think it can go further than the binge day thing. People contemplating their morality, riots and revolutions going on, the change in sciencedue to the incusion of forbidden research. The purge is the type of change to society that can reveal so much about humanity and it's society but it was instead used as a cheap setup.
what a disappointment. Moviegoers are dumber in the waste of such potential.
Romney is known to be extremely supportive for less regulation and more power to corporations. He was making the point that the only way to make a movie with the villains as embodiments of predatory capitalism less subtle is to have one of them be Mitt Romney who has been accused of predatory capitalism with Bain capital and was believed to have encouraged it.
The movie looks terrible, no doubt, and the concept is utter trash (Battle Royale re-imagined by, as you said, a "Freshman philosophy major"), but I actually think they underestimate how bad people are. Yes, the majority of people are not evil, but what about people who can make bombs? What about nuclear devices? What about drug cartels? (Imagine how bad they'd be.) And what about hackers who could just take all the rich people's money, with no consequence? What about international consequences of actions? I really don't think this would benefit anyone, rich or poor.
This must be one of the most poorly thought-out movie concepts I've ever heard...
Luckily I wasn't planning on seeing this one just on the fact that the premise seemed so utterly asinine as to strain credibility. Now that I've heard what you have to say it just seems more asinine. For one thing people hold grudges in real life. Why wouldn't there be a rash of revenge murders after the purge? Who came up with the notion that law enforcement was the only agent of consequence in human society? If you have a society where people will forgive you for hacking their sister to death the day after you did it why would you need the purge at all? They have obviously achieved sainthood already. If the purge disproportionally targets the poor that leads to another problem. Since the beginning of civilization there have always been more poor than rich. This would eventuate in a popular uprising if the poor become convinced that the rich are actually trying to kill them by... well... the rich trying to kill them. A thing like this would actually hasten a collapse rather than prevent it. It would seem that they got all caught up in their quirky premise that they forgot to think it all the way through.
It sounds like this movie would have been significantly better if it had been made in, say, 1987, with a tighter budget, no name actors, and a stake in genuinely shocking the audience for the sake of making an impact. It sounds like what came out was an interesting premise that got dumbed down into high-concept by-the-numbers audience-pleaser that hit exactly the narrative and visceral points required but couldn't be bothered to paint outside the lines for fear of alienating 10% of the audience with something challenging.
I thought the premise had promise for a decent story, so it sucks to hear that it's just a bad slasher film. Ugh.
Also, I love Lena Headley in Game of Thrones, and hoped that she would get a hit here. Looks like that isn't happening.
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