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Formula E Racing
Formula E Racing
I think all the cars are being built by Mercedes/McLaren so I'm not sure if Tesla would have the opportunity to build their own car. Guess they want to keep racing as equal as possible to start.
They should definitely sponsor a team though. They should get behind EV racing from the start. It will help their brand awareness and set the stage for a full team entry when permitted.
I am interested to know how they plan on keeping the EV motor from overheating...I hear this is a problem with EV racing. Anyone heard anything?
Also disappointed to learn that they won't be swapping batteries but are actually swapping whole cars, with driver jumping into a new car during pitstops. You would think a quick battery swap would be easy and more practical (less cars to build, etc).
I don't think that sponsoring a racing team is a good use of Elon's or Tesla's cash right now... maybe someday, but only after Tesla has been generating big and growing profits for a long time, maybe. So many better uses for that cash before that point. Also what you describe sounds like a joke. Swapping cars would build the perception that EVs are not practical and even useless. Like Tesla is doing with cars, I think an EV race should be better than an ICE race, at all levels... in fact an EV should someday enter F1 to win it, when the technology allows it and enough sponsors can be found. More interesting to me would be a race that has a human component as well. Cycling is boring to me because the rules prohibit custom bikes to a large extent in order to keep the competition at an athletic level. Auto racing is a lot of horsepower with questionable athletic value and much of the game is about cheating death. I think an ideal race format would be a combination of the two, a bit like the Varna Diablo with three wheels for stability and also electrified so it can be super fast and fun. A limit on battery weight could keep the athletic component relevant while also pushing for technological innovation. Instead of weight, it could be another metric if one is found, such as cost limit.
Biggest priority now is getting Model S out on the street, in Europe and elsewhere. Then Model X out, take care of your reservation holders... When Model R (the new roadster) comes out then racing can be a great publicity thing (2015?)... especially a Super R (Veyron killer)
Racing is a fun aspect of the automotive world and has it's business function as a promotional event, but demand is not a problem for Tesla for now. Tesla can turn the racing world on its head with a Super R, after tens of thousands of Teslas are out on the road around the world and it has shown multiple profitable quarters. Tesla racing could be the nail in the coffin for ICE dominance, but has to be done right, when Tesla is ready.
By 2020 serious 'car guys' will not even look at an ICE...
I think people are forgetting of the research and development opportunities that motor racing brings to the table. Plus motor racing is a very profitable business; you do know that Mclaren is worth well over a billion dollars? You not only get more publicity but you also get to innovate and try new technologies while competing with the best of the best in the automotive world.
Also, Renault, who produces the all electric Zoe and taunts itself as a car company in the forefront of EV technology recently announced its interest to Join Formula E:
Renault states its own involvement is probable, particularly given its expertise in the global electronic vehicle market.
Carlos Tavares, COO of the Renault group told Autosport Magazine:
"Formula E is something that we are looking at very closely…it's very probable to say that, if it happens, we will be involved in one way or another. Renault is the EV sales leader in Europe and the Renault-Nissan alliance is the sales leader in the world. Formula E is completely consistent with our mastery of the technology, and we're eager to use that platform to show to the people what we can do."
"There is a big difference between conventional racing and zero emission racing. A zero emission racing series is about promoting new technologies. If you are promoting this, you must realize that the best technology must win. Renault as the EV leader in zero emissions would want to compete in a championship to demonstrate [its] technology is the best".
"I would not like to be under the threat of Balance of Performance criteria, so I think we should be consistent with that. After all the role of motorsport, in its purist form, is to promote the efficiency of new technology."
These are some automotive technologies which came from racing, just to name a few:
1)Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (Courtesy of F1)
2)Carbon Fiber (Back in 1981, the McLaren MP4/1 Formula One car pioneered the use of a carbon-fiber chassis).
3)Traction control (From Formula 1, back in the 80's).
4)Flapp paddle gearboxes(The F1 Ferrari 640 of 1989 was the first car to use flapp paddles).
5) Active suspension (It was perfected and used by Williams in the early 90's)
6)Not to mention all the aerodynamic advances and tire compound breakthroughs that come from racing.
7)First functional AWD systems during the late
8)AWD (Spyker is credited with building and racing the first ever four-wheel racing car, the Spyker 60 HP, Miller produced the first 4WD car to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, the 1938 Miller Gulf Special and let's not forget Audi's quattro technology developed for rallying)
9)Dunlop's development of caliper-type disc brakes for the Jaguar C-Type racer in 1953.
10)Rear-view mirror (the first rear-view mirror debuted at the Indianapolis 500 race in 1911).
Plus plenty more breakthroughs that come from racing and could make this a very long list.
I agree with your list for most except that AWD. First AWD cars were definitely for all terrain vehicles, not for racing.
Maybe, though the 60HP Spiker was developed for racing at the begining of the century. Which all terrain vehicles were developed before that? I would also like to add that high speed real time AWD was developed for rallying purposes in the second half of the 20th century. This took AWD to a level where it could be transferred to vehicles intended for day to day driving ie Audi.
Beginning of 1900 I assume. I do believe we had AWD before 2000 ;-)
Looks like first AWD (passenger) car happened to be electric made by Porsche. Before that there were other AWD cars but they probably were not passenger cars. Trucks and tractors mainly I believe.
I think you guys are having different conversations. The confusion here is that there is a difference between All When Drive (recent innovation) and four wheel drive (almost as old as the car itself). If that isn't the confusion, please forgive me... I couldn't make sense of your conversation without interpreting it that way.
We were discussing about origins of the tech. AWD/4WD is not clear concept, for example which one you would count electric hub-motor car? Each wheel has it's own motor. There are huge variety how power is transmitted to wheels, important point is that all of the wheels drive the car in normal conditions. Origin of that is not in racing, but it definitely has improved a lot in it. I bet that without racing basically only offroad cars would have it (OTOH for racing it is so obvious improvement that this is quite moot point).
I just checked the Specs there for these cars and compared them to that of the Model S:
Top Speed:
220 km/h vs. 210 km/h
0-100 km/h:
3s vs. 4 s
180kw v. 310kw (so actually more for the Model S!)
In addition any Tesla handily beats these "racing cars" on range given that they last about 25 minutes.
So a 2t Tesla is almost as fast than a 0.78t "Formula E" car. A regular street car has more power than the racing car? Are you kidding me?
I really do believe Tesla should get involved here - besides the huge effect on image this could have, they could actually make money if they sold them some decent racing cars - or at least the important parts thereof. Do they regularly check the forums? Or is there another way one could bring this to their attention if they haven't noticed already?
Tesla does watch these forums. It's somewhat rare to get them comment anything here, but every now and then you notice something done based on what was written here.
F1 cars are light and 0-100km/h isn't that impressive, what is impressive is cornering and the 100-200km/h which is actually a bit faster than 0-100 due increased downforce. These FE race cars follow same logic, light and a lot of downforce.
Model S would not beat these racing cars because it wont be able to corner as tightly. I have seen 5 g measured in high speed corners in F1 cars. Good acceleration does not matter much if you need to drive corner 150km/h slower than proper race car. Also I believe that this 220km/h is regulated limit, not what these cars could actually do without limits. 3s vs 4s is 25% increase in acceleration. That's huge difference.
Power to weight ratio is in favor of FE:
180kW/780kg vs 310kW/2100kg
~231W/kg vs ~148W/kg.
I don't think Tesla could use their drivetrain/battery setup which makes making race car a bit useless exercise. However I can't see anything else than Model S as pace car in that race track. There just isn't much else in there that could fit that role.
I know that racing is not just about figures like 0-100. I also didn't want to suggest that they should enter a Model S into these races - allthough I now realize I might not have been clear about that in my previous post.
My suggestion was that they should either build a FE car themselves or sell them some parts for the cars. These would of course also have to be modified. Given that I am not an engineer I don't know how much work would have to be put into this, but Tesla seems to have a very clear technological advantage here.
If they were to put that technology into a racing car, I believe they could get actually get a better power to weight ratio.
However I have also found some different numbers on the power of these FE cars after doing further research, some of them being higher, but I assume that the ones above are accurate because they are from the official site.
I know that racing is not just about figures like 0-100. I also didn't want to suggest that they should enter a Model S into these races - allthough I now realize I might not have been clear about that in my previous post.
My suggestion was that they should either build a FE car themselves or sell them some parts for the cars. These would of course also have to be modified. Given that I am not an engineer I don't know how much work would have to be put into this, but Tesla seems to have a very clear technological advantage here.
If they were to put that technology into a racing car, I believe they could get actually get a better power to weight ratio.
However I have also found some different numbers on the power of these FE cars after doing further research, some of them being higher, but I assume that the ones above are accurate because they are from the official site.
I agree with PKolf. If this series gets other constructors involved like BMW, Renault, Nissan, GM or Even Ford, all of whom have their own EV programs, it would get very competitive. When that happens the envelope will get pushed and technological breakthroughs will be made. Just as it happened in F1 before it got over regulated and Bernie decided to kill innovation to make the series more "interesting" with engineered overtaking.
Renault is officially in!!
Thing with Tesla is that they do not use cutting edge techs. There's nothing special in parts they use, only how they use them. Tesla would not benefit much from FE series, it is not yet big enough to afford putting resources into it. Maybe in future, but not near future.
I would like to see Model S as pace car though. There isn't much else out there that could fill that role. Not yet anyway.
I agree, but Formula E can be used to try proven technology too. For example they could use it to test out different battery chemistries under different stress conditions. When deciding for a new technology, even a proven one, there are usually many choices involved in the decission, and these involve testing. Same goes for engines, software, re gen systems, etc. Formula E can be used as a lab test bench for different ideas and technologies (new or in the pipeline), while still getting a bang for your buck in terms of publicity and global exposure. As I see it, Formula E its R&D with a return.
Most people here are looking at Formula E as an expense. This is wrong, if managed properly TM could actually even make money out of this. Just ask Ferrari (today, at least on terms of market cap, TM is bigger!), their F1 program has been one of the keystones to its success. Just my two cents...
I just learned that although all teams are required to use the Dallara-developed chassis for the first year (which I think is a great field leveling idea), the second season will allow other chassis.
I hope they change this so that all competitors have to use the same chassis; aerodynamics takes up a really big chunk out of every formula team and you really can't transfer breakthroughs on the aerodynamics of an open wheel racing car chassis to a street legal road car.
Tesla should only join if this is done, otherwise the series stops being about innovating electric vehicle platforms and technologies and starts being more focused on aerodynamics.
There should be no limit in the regulations regarding the drive train, including the engine, battery density and chemistry, software, etc. But the chassis should stay the same for all teams. Otherwise this series will turn into a series like Formula One, where the team with the best aerodynamicist wins, like the almost a decade when Ferrari dominated with Rory Byrne as chief designer or Mclaren and now Redbull with Adrian Newey.
Williams Advanced Engineering to supply Formula E battery units!
Thankfully, frmercado, one of Tesla's current suppliers is capable of matching any of the current and prospective Formula E entrants in terms of chassis design.
When Multimatic and Carl Haas purchased Lola Cars last year, Multimatic retained Lola's critical design staff and data, and have brought their own blend of racing and production design expertise to the table. This includes experienced and noteworthy aerodynamicists.
Keen observers of EV motorsport will know that Multimatic did a bunch of aero and suspension development work (including supply of their DSERD energy recovering dampers) for the Lola sports prototype with which (Formula E entrants) Drayson Racing have smashed the FIA light electric speed record.
A competitive Formula E entry would net greater international sales and provide valuable engineering lessons for Tesla, and would answer all those asking why the firm hasn't yet stepped into the ring.
Indeed, the costs of aero development can be crippling if you don't have experienced people running the show. Tesla does, however, have the right people on 'speed dial' via Multimatic and Lola. I have no doubts that if Mr. Musk were to make that call, a Tesla-powered and even Tesla-branded chassis could run consistently at the sharp end of the Formula E grid.
Interesting information... I wholeheartedly agree with you and would also love to see a Tesla powered or branded car competing in Formula E.
However, I don't know how likely it is that such a thing will happen now; specially with the recent fall in the price of Tesla's stock price. I'm sure Tesla management is pretty busy right now putting fires out (literally) to turn its focus on entering formula E.
Notwithstanding, I think it would be a good idea to join Formula E right NOW; it might sound counter intuitive but I think this move would help to turn attention from the overhyped fires and stock price fall while also helping promote Tesla's image in Europe, specially Germany, which will be a hard nut to crack. Germans do love their motorsports and that would probably help a lot with the German market. It is no coincidence that Audi is now backing a formula E team. The fact that a race will be held in Berlin will not hurt either.
We'll see though. Let's hope that Tesla Motors takes a more proactive role in motorsports and related R&D and how they market their image in Europe.
OTOH, it may be a money pit. I doubt TM will participate before the new Roadster is revealed in 2-3 years.
Also in order to help the brand they need to be one at the top teams, it would not help at all to finish last in race.
Problem with Formula Whatever is that those cars don't really have much common with ordinary cars, so Tesla experience with road cars might not translate to excellence in Formula anything.
The technical split between road and race cars is certainly a valid issue with conventional motorsport since it reached a sort of technical maturity in the late 1980's. In the case of many technologies, transfer had begun to flow from road cars to race cars, contrary to the 'classic' motorsport technology transfer model.
Formula 1's first KERS season in 2008 reversed this to some extent, and showed potential for motorsport to resume its technical pioneering role given the renewed conditions of having a technical frontier. With lots to learn, the accelerated, small-scale development conditions of motorsport can show their benefit.
As for cost, well, there are multiple ways to get a given program together. Suffice to say that I agree on the PR front: it's altogether innocuous (in PR terms) to talk about a car of any brand having caught on fire when it's crashed in a high-profile race...
I think WRC still has advantage over road cars. There the tech flow is classic one. I think Tesla could make one awesome rally car with 4WD two-motor techs. Too bad there isn't really much competition to compare against in that area.
In my mind WRC would make more sense than Formula E for pure-BEV series in many ways: not that high top speeds, shorter routes, less aerodynamic stuff and more traction control systems, insane low speed accelerations etc. Pure BEV can compete and probably even beat gas cars in that.
Timo, I'm a big fan of the WRC, but I think that the focus of Formula E is to get as many people as possible to follow the series and racing in urban areas helps a lot to accomplish this. Because of the very nature of WRC, maybe with the exception of Monaco, the races often take place in remote places and the world media coverage is marginal, at best.
I think that your point on aerodynamics is valid and I agree that, in any formula series, this is a big factor on being competitive; it also takes up a lot of investment and doesn't transfer into road cars. I think that if this is managed appropriately by freezing aerodynamics and by making a standard chassis or two which would be made available to all participants, like a Lola or Dalara, or even a chassis from an F1 constructor or two, the huge expense and needless R&D into this area could be avoided. This would free most of the budget of the teams to invest on R&D in technology that would really transfer into road cars, like drive trains, software, new battery chemistries, new charging tech, tires, etc.
It also seems that Formula E is going out of its way, both to accommodate new players into the series as well as making it a suitable platform for the transfer of technology to road cars. An example of the latter is the tires (developed by Michelin) which will be very similar to road car tires, unlike the tires of any other racing series in the world; 18 inch all season tires which will have to be run throughout the duration of the race.
Also from the comments of the people involved you can tell they want to make this series a test bed to advance electric vehicle technology and to improve awareness of the viability of EV as a substitute for ICE. These guys want Electric Vehicles to succeed. A report, released by leading professional services firm EY, has analyzed the global VALUE of the FIA FORMULA E CHAMPIONSHIP, revealing that the new zero emission race series will help CONTRIBUTE to the additional sale of 77 MILLION Electric Vehicles (EV) worldwide over the next 25 years.
People here should go into the official Formula E website and check out all the videos with the various interviews, especially those with the people from McLaren, Williams, Michelin and Renault, which are the technical companies behind this series so far.
Interesting interview of the CEO of Formula E. The most interesting thing about it is that at around the two minute 50 second mark of the video he mentions that they are in talks with Tesla.
Looks like Tesla is interested in this series... :)
Insightful interview of the CEO of Formula E by Bloomberg. The most interesting thing about it is that at around the two minute 50 second mark of the video he mentions that they are in talks with Tesla.
Interesting, but also a bit worrisome, it talks about making "fans interact with the race" by some sort of game. That is invite to hackers to mess with race. Maybe sub-game "who manages to make car spin out of control in fast corner" by boosting HP of the car in critical moment, and things like that. Huge potential to ruin the series.
OTOH introduce robot drivers and make it a proper "death race" and I would definitely play the game >:) .
Yeah, I didn't really get that part either. I think they are still exploring and refining new concepts to make this formula series more unique and attractive to the younger generations.
Here is a video from the first ever track test of the new car from earlier today:
What do you think about the sound of the motor?
EEEEEE..eeeeee..EEEEEEEEEEE! Hard on the driver! ;p LOL
At the end the driver talks about getting four times more torque in final product. If that's true then gearbox functionality now is rather moot. You need to tweak pretty much every mechanical part to accommodate that much more power (unless current parts have absolute insane tolerances).
Here is a company that understands the engineering value of participating in motorsports.
Mr S P Shukla, Chairman, Mahindra Racing and President of Group Strategy said: "We are very excited about our new adventure with Formula E. Mahindra Racing is relatively young, but we have seen how racing delivers benefits to our organisation, not only from the brand perspective, but equally in terms of TECHNOLOGY advances and motivation. This is an excellent addition to our racing portfolio and we are looking forward to a successful future in Formula E."
Pretty standard boilerplate statement. What would you expect a "President of Racing and Group Strategy" to say?
How about this statement from Dr. Pawan Goenka, Executive Director and President of the Automotive sector at Mahindra: "As pioneers of electric mobility in India, we are extremely thrilled to extend EV technology to the exhilarating world of the Formula E championship. This will not only help us develop next generation EV technologies, but will also catapult our product development capabilities to the next orbit."
Or this other one from Mr Anand Mahindra, Chairman and Managing Director of Mahindra Group. "With advanced operations and expertise in electronics, IT, automotive technologies and manufacturing, we are already seeing the fusion of this technology into our electric vehicle operations. Racing will further accelerate that trend while Formula E is set to raise awareness globally about the benefits of electric vehicles."
Personally, I find it very encouraging that various automotive markets are incorporating EV technology into the mainstream of automotive venues, be it commuter, racing, or even the "monster truck" forum:
Nothing like it, just more of it!!
The last remaining spot left on the Formula E grid was taken by another electric vehicle manufacturer, Venturi from Monaco. Kind of disappointing to see that even much smaller EV manufacturers than Tesla Motors see the value to develop their products through racing. ("From season two, the team plans to become a constructor, building its own Formula E car using a powertrain based on its 3,000hp Venturi VBB-3 electric streamliner that aims to set a new World Record of 700kph on the Bonneville Salt Flats by 2015").
I hope the lack of interest by TM in this series won't take away momentum in the European and Asian markets in the future, specially once the series gets started and the other Electric Vehicle manufacturers stealthe spotlight from Tesla Motors within the general public and racng fans in those markets.
Hopefully TM will change its mind about getting involved and will join another team already on the grid; a joint venture with Virgin doesn't sound to far fetched...
If I may interject, I submit for your consideration the view that the point that you are missing is that Tesla Motors has ALREADY proven the developmental acumen of its technology in the forms of the Roadster, Model S, and soon to be Model X platforms, not to mention by simply demonstrating the consumer desirable market viability of a long belittled and even discouraged technology by introducing it into mainstream commuter reality in a number of VERY appealing commuter packages, debunking all of the naysayers in the process, so what more need is there to "develop" or 'prove' anything to anyone? Developmental or otherwise?
If anything, it is the other potential contenders that need consume themselves with catching up as Tesla is already well ahead of the crowd.
Agree, but remember the innovator's dilemma. Tesla is an extremely young company and it can't fall asleep on its laurels. Look at what is happening to Toyota right now on the hybrid front.
Now take a look at Porsche, if there is an area where they have always invested is in Motorsports, it keeps them in the forefront of technological innovation. Just during the last two years they have invested heavily as well as assigned a huge budget for next year to their Le Mans program where they will be competing against Toyota and Audi, and if you listen to Porsche's entire board of directors, they all supported it whole hardheartedly. What has Porsche gotten out of it so far? Well, for starters, a brand new hybrid engine design that will probably transfer to their road cars in the very near future, and that is even before they've done any racing. That is the intrinsic value of motorsports; it pushes innovation and helps create new technologies.
BTW Formula E doesn't even come close to the Le Mans series LMP1 category in terms of the investment necessary to enter in it, let alone be competitive, and that is because Formula E was purposely designed to be an inexpensive series conducive to R&D on new EV tech (at least for now and, as I mentioned before, only if they don't let aerodynamics take over the teams budget in the future).
I would also like to point out that if Tesla wants to have the same margins that Porsche has, it should take a leaf out of Porsche's book. The reason why people pay what they pay for a Porsche is not only because they are buying an amazing piece of engineering, but because of the racing heritage that comes with it, same thing with Ferrari. There are way too many people who are passionate about racing and want to have a part of it somehow, to ignore them and not cater to that huge market, specially in the high end car segment is foolish at best.
Motorsports are the single most popular sport as a whole in the entire world (even more than soccer and despite the fact that very few people even get to actually practice it). Just F1 by itself has more worldwide viewers in a season than all of the American sports leagues combined (excluding NASCAR -which is has the biggest audience over all other sports in the U.S.A. and 2nd in revenue after the NFL).
Tesla doesn't have to prove itself with the early adopters and people who believe in EVs and know what electric vehicles are all about, it has to prove itself to all of those people who don't know much about Electric Vehicles or don't trust the technology enough yet and who happen to be 95% of the population (electric vehicles are far away from becoming mainstream). Even in America, there are people who have never heard of Tesla, imagine the rest of the world?
So... traditional racing has always been monetized through sponsorships, most of which are parts suppliers, manufacturers, petrol companies, motor oil companies, and other various fluids that get put in ICE cars on a tri-monthly basis just to keep them running. I would think Formula-E might suffer from lack of sponsorship opportunities.
(Yes, this post was written tongue-in-cheek)
Ha, indeed. But now you can substitute those sponsors for new suppliers specialized in electronics and batteries like Qualcomm, Panasonic, Samsung, LG or even Black and Decker :P
Seriously though, I think that the value of the publicity generated, prestige for participaing in racing, on top of the R&D that can be done in the series would be enough to offset the actual costs of running in the series, and this even before considering sponsor revenue.
I think this is a good series in terms of return on investment, particularly right now as a new series when the cost to enter is so low (considering its a global FIA sanctioned event).
"Porsche", huh?
Any more questions?
IMHO (as I have alluded to before) Tesla is more focused on bringing EV technology to the mass market/public at large in a market-wide, AFFORDABLY aesthetically and performance appealing platform and not just specialized niches, so until other marques have actually entered the COMPLETELY EV genre, there really is no comparison/competition, let alone the necessity to reallocate funds for a "racing" development department.
@Haeze and frmercado
"IF" sponsors emerge that show an interest in investing in EV development/experimentation/research, etc., perhaps THEN would be the best time to pursue such interests?
Also, it is not my intention to be perceived as taking anything away from the racing/motorsports industry as I, myself, am a racing enthusiast and even participant on occasion, I'm just not seeing an actual 'need' for Tesla's participation at this time.
As it is now Tesla is without any competition...ANY!
An interesting article on the development of the battery technology to be used in Formula-e.
Be interesting to see some cell design and battery architecture details for the Williams.
I suspect TM is already doing "most of the above", but without the racetrack constraints Formula E imposes.
Asked EM about TM participating in rallies. His response:
"Well, I do think that's an awesome race. We have no plan to be involved in any racing activity in the at least short to medium term. I mean really our focus is on developing new products and increasing production. And all of the kind of racing stuff is about demand generation. And so we start hitting demand constraints instead of production constraints that make sense for us to focus on production. Thank you."
Good question, great answer. Pretty much what I thought all along. For most manufacturers, racing is far more about advertising than it is about the technology. It certainly has helped certain companies, Honda and Toyota in particular, to create technologies they have eventually used in some form on their mass market vehicles. It's a good way to make sure your engineering teams know how to stay on their feet and think fast in critical situations, so they do not become complacent and are always striving to improve. But Tesla Motors'in the trenches' with 'their feet to the fire'. It wouldn't do them any good to add racing programs to their long list of duties, as it would surely burn them out irreversibly.
Sensible letter. Almost English. Must have been written by a Chinese Engineer!


text:
Technically, Barcelona and Argentina forward Lionel Messi dove a few times, in a literal sense, as he was hip-checked, tripped up and otherwise impeded by lesser talents. Problem is, Messi missed several opportunities to flail about to pad his stat sheet. He is the Best Soccer Player On Earth.
Everything Wrong With Soccer, In One Incredible Dive [Deadspin] (H/T Jon K.)

subset: commoncrawl


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Even though we live in a country where there shall be no religious test for public office, Santorum is trying to appeal to voters by claiming that Obama's theology is "phoney" - a "different kind of christianity".
Constitution Article VI, paragraph 3, and states that:
The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust under the United States.
Santorum also claims that, for some reason, since Obama is black, he shouldn't be deciding that a fetus is not fully human under the constitution. "Remarkable for a black man". Remarkable for a presidential candidate, where are fetuses discussed in the constitution again? Let's play the "race card" to equate fetus rights (And embryo rights, and blastocyst rights, and fertilized egg rights) with the fight against racism.
Santorum claims that "Obamacare" prenatal testing is a way to save money by aborting potentially disabled fetuses. Although, prenatal testing CAN be used to avoid having a baby with some devastating illnesses, like Tay-Sachs, and in some countries to avoid the dreaded XX Chromosome combination.... I know, I know, but this is a demagogic tool to influence voters. There is not a sound-bite-able argument.
Going a bit further back (2008), Santorum speechified that-
"Satan is destroying America"
every institution in America has been destroyed by Satan; from academia to politics with even the church having fallen under His sway – not the Catholic church, of course, but "mainline Protestantism" which is in such "shambles" that it is not even Christian any longer.
Also noting that "this is a spiritual war"
People are voting for this religious fanatic, a crusader to impose Catholic orthodoxy on the American public? I think I need a xanax.
Views: 863
He should be in favor of this too then:
Georgia Democrats propose limitations on vasectomies for men
the point: These issues need to leave the public and be left to private lives.
He probably IS in favor of banning vasectomies. I imagine that is the Catholic line as well. No birth control of any kind.
I'm sure he is. I was listening to catholic radio the other morning and they were talking about this. They told a guy he needed a vasectomy reversal if he was going to have sex with his new wife.
I think if they tried to ban viagra and similar drugs, they'd get more of the hypocritical backlash they're looking for. LOL, imagine some tool like Pat Robertson or some power clown catholic bishop getting all bent out of shape about the government taking away their viagra....
He's a devious little theocrat, isn't he? These things will come back to haunt him if he can win over Mutt Rumney.
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Practicing techniques and technical pieces such as cramer is VERY important.
While practicing technique, make sure that you place ALL your arm strength on your fingers, transferring the weight on each note, while keeping your hand arch and fingers firm. This will strengthen your finger and hand muscles greatly while producing great tone.
You should be practicing 15-20 minutes of technique every single day to improve your piano skills.
Sorry that this has been my first piece of advice in a year, but I havent had the time to post anything, as high school is very busy.
Question, comments, concerns? Leave a comment or leave a message in my inbox!
Last entries


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Written By: NM State Athletics
LAS CRUCES, N.M. - The New Mexico State baseball team defeated Dallas Baptist 16-5 in seven innings at Presley Askew Field, Friday, April 5. The Aggies are now 17-14 on the year and 3-4 in Western Athletic Conference play, while the Patriots fall to 16-14 on the season and 4-3 in league play.
The Aggies scored 16 runs on 15 hits with senior Bobby Lecount leading the offense going 2-of-3 at the dish with a home run and five RBIs. Senior shortstop Parker Hipp also had a good night with the bat as he finished the evening going 2-of-4 with a walk, two RBIs and three runs scored.
Senior starting pitcher Adam Mott earned the win after working 6.0 innings, striking out four batters and giving up four runs. The first two of those four runs came in the top of the first to give DBU a 2-0 lead, but the Aggies tied it up in the bottom of the inning when Lecount tallied a two-RBI double to centerfield.
After the Aggies took a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the second, DBU regained the lead off a triple. NM State was down 4-3 before scoring nine runs on six hits. The offensive explosion started with a lead-off Hipp home run of the right field wall to tie the game at 4-4. It was Hipp's sixth homer of the year. A fielder's choice by Jory Goldstrom gave the Aggies a 5-4 lead before the Aggies scored seven more runs. Lecount hit a three-run shot later in the inning giving him eight bombs on the year.
The Patriots were held scoreless in the top of the fourth with NM State scoring four more runs in the bottom of the inning. DBU scored a run in the top of the seventh but that would not be enough as the Aggies ended the game with left-hand pitcher Robert Kraft forcing the final Patriot batter to fly-out to center.
The Aggies and the Patriots meet up in game two of the three-game series, Saturday, April 6 at 6:05 p.m. (MT). The game will be televised as a part of the Aggie Vision productions. Contact your local cable or satellite provider for show time listings.


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How Will We Make Decisions in the Future?
How will we make decisions in the future? Bruno Aziza, Worldwide Lead Strategist for Microsoft's Business Intelligence group culled the wisdom of the crowd to help him peer into the future.
A little less than a month ago, I asked people via multiple networks and forums what they thought business intelligence would look like in 2020.
Some folks were cautious in their forecasts. One respondent told me that maybe – just maybe – if by 2020 we have solved quality and integration issues, and if continue to improve usability and make the use of mash-ups more efficient, we'll finally get to the point where non-technical users finally benefit from BI without involvement lot of help from IT.
Others predicted that data sources won't even matter anymore. Even search engines might be passé. They argued that people will be able to ask questions to a computer that is smart enough to ask for clarification before answering the question. This ties well with a prediction I heard – and that is supported by our own work on natural user interfaces – that verbal communication with a computer could soon be common.
Finally, two respondents said that spreadsheets might be less important in the future and that people will favor technology that pushes answers to them, rather than requiring people to look for the right information.
These predictions can help all us picture the future for business intelligence, and perhaps align our actions to make it happen.
My own bets for business intelligence in 2020 include the notion that collaboration and business intelligence will be linked more closely so that it becomes more obvious that decisions are based on hard data as well as the knowledge and opinions from co-workers, partners and friends.
I also agree that data sources won't matter to end-users. I actually don't know that they should matter to people today. I hope that technology will guide people's decisions more efficiently because it can filter out irrelevant information and focus on information that improves insights and actions.
Last but not least: Culture will change. A culture of performance is the one factor that allows organization to gain continuous success across multiple generations of people and technology. I see day after day the rewards and competitive advantage organizations gain by moving from a gut-feel type of management style to a more rigorous, data-driven decision-making system.
If you have any feedback or thoughts, please feel free to email me directly at firstname.lastname@example.com.


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Word is neither wanted to attend. Maria twisted their arms. Now Meg Whitman's campaign may be sorry they accepted while Jerry Brown is glad he did.
On Tuesday, before 15,000 women at Maria Shriver's "Women's Conference" in Long Beach the two candidates for governor ended up on stage with the man whom they hope to replace, Arnold Schwarzenegger. NBC Today Show host Matt Lauer moderated the conversation.
Not much news was made at the outset. Lauer asked what there was about them that voters still didn't know. Both talked about their mothers, how they got started in business and government and how they loved California. But near the end Lauer asked a question that may have decided the election.
U.S. & World
"With 6 days left in the campaign, will you promise to stop the negativity" Lauer asked to thunderous applause in the convention hall. "Will you promise to pull your negative TV ads within the next 24 hours?"
At first Brown equivocated. "Negativity is in the eye of the beholder" he responded to booing in the audience, "there is a spectrum".
Whitman seized on the question by talking about the hurt that has come with the personal attacks and the "names that I have been called" during the campaign, "it is no fair to the voters of California." Big applause.
But Lauer wanted a commitment and restated the question to which Brown quickly responded. He had lost the first round and he knew it. It was time to pivot.
"Listen… I will take mine off, no question" he said. " If we do it together no problem, I will do that right now". Big applause. As in an eBay auction the bid just went up.
Whitman's response was probably the correct one politically but it resulted in a bad moment for the short term. While saying she would take down any commercial that "remotely" called into question her opponent's character she said she shouldn't take down the ads "that talk about where Governor Brown stands on the issues."
That didn't sit well with the audience. Brown went in for the kill.
"I have one nice ad where I look in the camera and say what I'm for. You have one ad where you look in the camera, a pretty good ad by the way, we can put both of them on and have all the other ones go off… I will agree to that right now". Big applause.
Whitman was uncomfortable. Jerry piled on.
"I have a positive commercial where you (Whitman) are talking about how great California was 30 years ago… and guess who was governor then?" Thunderous applause. Jerry had won over the crowd and the press as well. Nearly half the reporters in the media tent applauded (many may have been bloggers but I suspect not all).
Schwarzenegger came to Whitman's aid by saying such a move needs to be talked about with strategists.
"I can just see what the campaign advisors are doing in the room backstage, 'Oh… why did we agree to do this!'" he boomed.
Later on Fox News Channel former Bush White House advisor Karl Rove chastised Lauer for the question. "Why do defenders of the 1st Amendment in the media feel it is their role to limit the arguments made in a political campaign?" he argued. "Let the voters decide."
But this may not have been about negative ads. More damaging to the GOP candidate may have been the image of a political newcomer who was not in charge of her campaign and needed counsel in order to make a decision. It may have been a wise move not to get suckered into the agreement, after all she is trailing in this campaign and it would work to Jerry Brown's benefit to get her ads off the air. But whoever negotiated the sit-down with these three men at a women's conference should have their per-diem withheld for the rest of the campaign.


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What's Hot Today
The Biggest Loser Season 15 episode 9 airs Tuesday December 10 2013 on NBC at 8 pm. Episode Synopsis : The Biggest Loser Season 15 Episode 9- This week, the contestants take a pop quiz about obesity in the workplace after meeting host Alison Sweeney in a diner. The location proves significant since that's where the losing team will be working all week while still trying to eat healthy and exercise with much busier schedules. While the losing team stays busy waitressing, cleaning up, doing dishes and squeezing in workouts, they still find time to bring "treats" from their day job back to the ranch to tempt other players. Meanwhile, one trainer works closely with his contestant to determine what has been holding him back from bigger weight loss numbers, and another tries to help one player's family member get started on the path to a healthier lifestyle. Then it's time for another contestant to head home after a weigh-in that yields surprising results. Read More... //www.tvequals.com/2013/12/10/the-biggest-loser-season-15-episode-9/


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This Real Estate Bubble, Like Some Relationships, Is Complicated...
CNBC reports US home prices rise 5.9 percent to 31-month high in January according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. This puts the 20 city index close to an all time high, including the 2007 bubble.
The Financial Times Follows Up On Reggie Middleton's Admonitions Of A Canadian Housing Bubble
Two months ago I answered the query, Is There A Bubble In The Canadian Condo Market? for my subscribers. The missive started off like this:
The Canadian condo market is running into a precarious over-supply situation with large inventories slated to be entering the market in 2014 and 2015. Major centers such as Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are witnessing a rapid pace of condo construction, despite falling sales. The demand for housing overall is slowing down, with sales in the last few months of 2013 falling on y-on-y basis. In most major Canadian markets there is an increase in listings and decrease in sales (even though prices are still somehow rising, which should in and of itself be indicative of a problem).
Well, the Financial Times is now weighing in on the issue... Canada's housing market teeters precariously
Robert MacFarlane, a long-time crane operator, surveys his empire from the top of one of Toronto's flashy new apartment buildings. "I can see more than 50 tower cranes," said Mr MacFarlane, whose bird's-eye photography from the country's tallest crane has gained him online notoriety as interest in Toronto's property sector escalates.
These cranes – which can offer clues to bubble-like conditions – emerged in response to lofty demand for condominiums from investors and homebuyers taking advantage of Canada's ultra-low interest rates.
This is a fact. I've observed this in the bubble markets that I've personally experienced: Miama, NYC, DC - cranes and construction galore. In retrospect it appears virtually impossible for anyone NOT to realize we were in a bubble.
But as home prices rally and construction projects proliferate – particularly in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver – industry analysts say the country's property sector is perched precariously at its peak.
David Madani, economist at Capital Economics, believes the nation is on the verge "of what will prove to be a prolonged correction".
"Canada's housing market exhibits many of the symptoms that preceded disruptive housing downturns in other developed economies, namely overbuilding, overvaluation and excessive household debt," he adds.
Mr Madani's comments chime with a chorus of policy makers, rating agencies and hedge fund managers who have warned of the risks posed by Canada's overheated housing market.
Alongside Norway and New Zealand, Canada's overvalued property sector is most vulnerable to a price correction, according to a recent OECD report. It is especially at risk if borrowing costs rise or income growth slows.
And why in the world would borrowing costs rise with all of the world's most powerful central banks pushing #ZIRP4EVA???
In its latest monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada, the nation's central bank, noted: "The elevated level of household debt and stretched valuations in some segments of the housing market remain an important downside risk to the Canadian economy."
The riskiest mortgages are guaranteed by taxpayers through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, somewhat insulating the financial sector from the sort of meltdown endured by Wall Street in 2007 and 2008. But a collapse in home sales and prices would be a serious blow to consumer spending and the construction industry that employs 7 per cent of Canada's workforce.
But isn't that a circular argument???
...the flipside of a low interest rate policy designed to buttress the economy has meant that household debt levels have hit record highs as homebuyers stretched themselves to jump into the housing market. That in turn propelled demand and prices.
... Household debt has risen to 163 per cent of disposable income, according to Statistics Canada, while separate data show a quarter of Canadian households spend at least 30 per cent of their income on housing. This is close to the 1996 record when mortgage rates were substantially higher.
On a price-to-rent basis, which measures the profitability of owning a house, Canada's house prices are more than 60 per cent higher than their long-term average, the OECD says.
... Year-to-date new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area – an area accounting for a fifth of Canada's home building activity – are down by half from two years ago, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association.
... Mr Madani forecasts a market correction in home prices over the next few years, predicting a 25 per cent drop.
But those that are bullish on the market point to resilient regional data. October sales of existing homes rose 38 per cent in Vancouver and 19 per cent in Toronto.
"It's a mistake to think that what happened in the US will happen in Canada," said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist said.
Yes, because this time it's different!!!
... Mr MacFarlane too has yet to be convinced of an imminent slowdown. "In the past when things have slowed down, there has been a distinct 'feeling' from the boots on the ground perspective. I don't really sense that right now."
Nothing like that good 'ole empirical forensic analysis to make an investor feel all warm and cozy, right?!
All paying subscribers, feel free to download.
Is There A Canadian Condo Bubble? (Residential Real Estate)
Non-subscribers can purchase this report through a day pass subscription via PayPal orCredit Card.
More on this topic...
The Canadian Real Estate Bubble? Featured -Jul 25, 2012 - Below is an email that I recieved from a reader: RIO Canada is one of the biggest reit's in Canada I know some of there management and from
Nobel Prize Winning Economist Noted For Saying 2 Plus 2 Equals 4, Again
I like Professor Shiller and respect his work. Really, I do, but... Massive bubbles, the sort of the proportion of the 2008 crisis, are nigh impossible to miss if you can add single digits successfully and are able to keep your eyes open for a few minutes at a time. Yes, I truly do feel its that simple. I saw the property bubble over a year in advance, cashed out and came back in shorting - all for a very profitable round trip. Was I a genius soothsayer? Well, maybe in my own mind, but the reality of the situation is I was simply paying attention. Let's recap:
- The housing market crash in the spring of 2006 and publicly in September of 2007:Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
- Home builders falling and their grossly misleading use of off balance sheet structures to conceal excessive debt in November of 2007 (not a single sell side analyst that we know of made mention of this very material point in the industry): Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!
- The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear?
We all know what happened after this part. Well, 5 years later, before we even ran off the effects of the last crash, things are looking bubblicious again and again very few are facing facts. Reuters/CNBC reports "Nobel Prize Winner Says Housing Market Looking A Little Bubbly":
Robert Shiller, who shared the 8 million Swedish crown ($1.25 million) prize with fellow laureates Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, said the U.S. Federal Reserve's economic stimulus and growing market speculation were creating a "bubbly" property boom.
You think so?!
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences lauded the economists' research on the prices of stocks, bonds and other assets, saying "mispricing of assets may contribute to financial crises and, as the recent global recession illustrates, such crises can damage the overall economy."
This was the case in the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which helped trigger the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Markets are at risk of committing the same error now, Shiller told Reuters after learning he had won the Nobel prize.
"This financial crisis that we've been going through in the last five years has been one that seems to reveal the failure to understand price movements," Shiller said.
Bubbles are created when investors fail to recognize when rising asset prices become detached from underlying fundamentals.
Shiller and other economists warn that prices in some markets have risen too far, too fast due to the Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy. The benchmark U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 index hit a record in September, though it is generally not considered overvalued based on expectations for corporate earnings results or economic growth.
Shiller's work led him to suggest in 2005 that the U.S. housing market might be overheating. He helped create a closely watched gauge of housing prices, the S&P Case/Shiller Index.
In June this year, he pointed to a potential new housing bubble in some of America's largest cities.
"It is up 12 percent in the last year. This is a very rapid price increase right now, and I believe that it is accelerated somewhat by the Fed's policy," he said.
China, Brazil, India, Australia, Norway and Belgium, among other countries, were witnessing similar price rises. "There are so many countries that are looking bubbly," he said.
The Fed has held U.S. interest rates near zero since late 2008 and almost quadrupled its balance sheet to around $3.7 trillion through a campaign of bond buying, or quantitative easing, to hold down long term borrowing costs.
Bloomberg TV & Reggie Middleton on the Flawed Case Shiller Index: "That's what they said in Japan about 12 years ago, look where they are now!"
Previous opinions on the topic...
Is There A Bubble In The Canadian Condo Market? We Drill Down Into The Facts To Find Out
The Canadian condo market is running into a precarious over-supply situation with large inventories slated to be entering the market in 2014 and 2015. Major centers such as Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are witnessing a rapid pace of condo construction, despite falling sales....
Bernanke's Bluffing Because A True QE Pullback Will Cause Fundamentals To Reassert In Banking Sector
A little over two years ago I queried "Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable?". This post attracted the attention of certain ING executives who apparently were asking themsevles the same question. I was invited as the keynote speaker at their valuation conference in Amsterdam wherein I dropped the negative reality bomb! Interest rates were GUARANTEED to spike and when they do, those banks with fictitious bank sheet values and business models predicated upon credit bubble metrics were GUARANTEED to start collapsing.
It's not just the European banks either. In 2009 I queried "Why Doesn't the Media Take a Truly Independent, Unbiased Look at the Big Banks in the US?". Then there's real esate in both the US... CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate...
hat visual relationship is corroborated by running the statistical correlations...
Reggie Middleton ON CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate
Crain's New York illustrating Reggie's BoomBustBlog and the followup article in Crains illustrating his accuracy in calling real estate and the European debt debacle,"
"His work is so detailed, so accurate, it's among the best in the world," says Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages about $5 billion and subscribes to Mr. Middleton's research.
Is There A Bubble In The Canadian Condo Market? We Drill Down Into The Facts To Find Out
The Canadian condo market is running into a precarious over-supply situation with large inventories slated to be entering the market in 2014 and 2015. Major centers such as Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are witnessing a rapid pace of condo construction, despite falling sales. The demand for housing overall is slowing down, with sales in the last few months of 2013 falling on y-on-y basis. In most major Canadian markets there is an increase in listings and decrease in sales (even though prices are still somehow rising, which should in and of itself be indicative of a problem).
However, what is holding the housing market from the "steep and prolonged fall" that the American and periphery EU markets experienced is the extremely low interest rate offered by the banks in a bid to maintain their top line and bottom line. (Note: ~>70% of the mortgages in Canada are insured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The banks therefore are more than motivated to lend for home mortgages). This "ZIRP" (Zero Interest Rate Policy) environment portends material volatility when it comes to an end, either voluntarily through the prospect of organic economic growth, or involuntarily through natural market forces coming to bear. The reason is that at no time in the history of the developed world has interest rates been this low for this long.
The caveat is, economic growth, the primary reason for cutting rates this low for this long – has never materialized, dispute the flood of free or even negative interest rate money that's been flooding the markets.
When (and that's "when", not "if") risky asset prices decide to revert to mean the snapback to bank balance sheets and economic profit has the potential to be devastating. Yes, even to those conservative Canadian banks.
Click to enlarge, and study carefully...
... and on the topic of "Bail-ins"
All paying subscribers, feel free to download.
Is There A Canadian Condo Bubble? (Residential Real Estate)
Non-subscribers can purchase this report through a day pass subscription via PayPal or Credit Card.
Bernanke's Bluffing Because A True QE Pullback Will Cause Fundamentals To Reassert In Banking Sector
A little over two years ago I queried "Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable?". This post attracted the attention of certain ING executives who apparently were asking themsevles the same question. I was invited as the keynote speaker at their valuation conference in Amsterdam wherein I dropped the negative reality bomb! Interest rates were GUARANTEED to spike and when they do, those banks with fictitious bank sheet values and business models predicated upon credit bubble metrics were GUARANTEED to start collapsing.
It's not just the European banks either. In 2009 I queried "Why Doesn't the Media Take a Truly Independent, Unbiased Look at the Big Banks in the US?". Then there's real esate in both the US... CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate...
That visual relationship is corroborated by running the statistical correlations...
The relationship is obvious and evident! In addition, we have been in a Goldilocks fantasy land for both interest rates and CRE for about 30 years. CRE culminated in the 2007 bubble pop, but was reblown by .gov policies and machinations. The same with rates. Ever hear of NEGATIVE interest rates where YOU have to PAY someone to LEND THEM MONEY!!!
So, BoomBustBloggers, where do YOU think rates are going to go from here? Up of Down???
and Europe...
Those who wish to download the full article in PDF format can do so here: Reggie Middleton on Stagflation, Sovereign Debt and the Potential for bank Failure at the ING ACADEMY-v2.
I Go To The NY Fed To Illustrate The Lies Perpetrated By The Fed Chairman Himself
Here's proof, pulled off of the St. Loius Fed's site, and espoused in front of the actual entrance to the NY Fed.
More on the matter...
Bernanke's Lying Through His Teeth and Not A Single Pundit/Analyst/Banker Has Called Him On It!!!
Is The New US Consumer Consumption Bubble Primed To Pop? Yes, There's A Bubble!!!
Recent and related research
Below are three companies that probably will not do well even with Bernanke's machinations. When and if Bernanke fails, look out below.... Click here to subscriber!
US Employment Hopium Smoking Idealists?
All over the MSM today, we here Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast, presented as good news. Of course, a little digging finds that not only was the jobless rate from last month adjusted upward retroactively (as it nearly always is), but "Too-Sick-to-Work Americans Shrink U.S. Labor Force". In other words "With a rising number of disability beneficiaries, there are both lower unemployment rates and lower participation rates." As reported by Bloomberg, and to wit:
The number of workers receiving SSDI jumped 22 percent to 8.7 million in April from 7.1 million in December 2007, Social Security data show. That helps explain as much as one quarter of the decline in the U.S. labor-force participation rate during the period, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.
Expiring Benefits
The participation rate -- the share of working-age people holding a job or seeking one -- was 63.8 percent in March after falling to a three-decade low of 63.7 percent in January. Disability recipients may account for as much as 0.5 percentage point of the more than 2 point drop since the end of 2007, the economists calculate, and that contribution couldgrow when some extended unemployment benefits expire at the end of this year.
"How we measure and understand what's going on in the economy can be influenced by the degree to which various public- support programs are available and being used," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York. "With a rising number of disability beneficiaries, there are both lower unemployment rates and lower participation rates."
Bloomberg also reports U.S. Productivity Falls, but I must say non-sequitur... It simply does not follow...
The productivity of U.S. workers fell in the first quarter, indicating businesses are reaching the limit of how much efficiency they can wring from the workforce.
The measure of employee output per hour declined at a 0.5 percent annual rate after a 1.2 percent gain in the prior three months, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Expenses per worker increased at a 2 percent rate, less than estimated.
Employers had to take on more staff at the start of the year even as growth slowed, signaling they can no longer count on existing staff to meet demand. A government report tomorrow may show payrolls increased again in April, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Okay, so growth slowed after 4 years of the deepest, widest, most global fiscal stimulation exercise in the history of... well... The globe! One would assume this slowing growth trend will accelerate as the stimulus is unwound due to a variety of common sense reasons, starting with...
- It just didn't work, and following up with...
- the potential to incite the inflationary fires, and ending up with...
- many countries simply can't afford the Ponzi scheme, trashy asset merry-go-round game thingy anyomore.
Even if stimulus is not lessened, we still can't ignore the plain and simple fact - it ain't working. Growth has slowed any way and quite a few developed nations who shepherded the global stimular cartel are now stating they're back in recession - depsite the fact that I made clear to my subscribers that they never left recession in the first place. Now, as growth continues to slow, what exactly does the astute pontificator think will happen to employment demand???????????????????????????????? Well, it's a positive omen as long as you only live your life a fiscal quarter at a time. Just don't look past 2 or 3 months or so, and you're straight, right????????????????
"This slowdown in productivity is a positive omen for the labor market," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said in a research note. He correctly projected the drop in productivity. "It suggests that additional increases in output will necessitate a faster pace of hiring than what has occurred thus far."
Now reference my comments from exactly this time last year, in "On Employment and Real Estate Recovery":
A regular commentator on BoomBustBlog has been attempting to make the case for a housing recovery based upon rising employment metrics. He has, particularly, pointed out rising hourly earnings. I thought I would take this time to point out that average hourly earnings can rise due to the fact that less people are working. The aggregate employment in the US has literally fell off of a cliff. Since you know that I love pictures, let's do this graphically...
Below you have a chart of total hours worked in the US with the average hourly earnings superimposed on top. As you can see, two and a half years and trillions of dollars of stimulus and QE later, we have barely budged. There was no multiplier effect. In essence, what you had was a divisor effect, and the money would have shown up more on a dollar for dollar basis if it was simply given to the populace! Of course, that wouldn't have kicked the inevitably deflation of the banking system down the road, now would it have?
Notice that despite the severe drop in total hours worked, average hourly earnings have increased. This can easily mislead someone who is not paying attention. Read more on this topic here: Inflation + Deflation = Stagflation ~ Lower Real Estate Values!
It's all HOPIUM, which is a tad bit stronger than that typical sticky sesimilia many are used to...
Reggie Middleton ON CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate
Now that I have (quite honestly) issued my most sincerest thanks, let's attempt to remedy the shortcoming of the limited amounted of time that I had. You see, after the 3 minute hit ended there was a brief discussion of commercial real estate in which I didn't get to participate, thus I will take the liberty of doing so through this medium.
Yes, commercial real estate has shown some marginal increases in the last quarter, and REITs have been on fire. The issue is, many publicly traded equities have detached from their underlying fundamentals. Let's reference "A Granular Look Into a $6 Billion REIT: Is This the Next GGP?" The following are excerpts from it:
You have to factor in non-market factors that have gone into supporting CRE prices. We have government bubble blowing where you can see where property prices were in a massive bubble, they rose and that bubble popped, and they were artificially supported and that bubble was partially reblown. Yes, the bubble was purposefully reblown, reference Buried Deep Within The Files That The Federal Reserve Released On Thier MBS Purchase Program, We Found TARP 2.0!!! More Taxpayer Money To The Banks!:
We have conducted analysis on all MBS sale and purchase transactions conducted by the Fed whose data was recently released. Of the total 10,058 MBS transactions, 72% were done at a yield of less than 5% (5% below yield of 4.0%, 32% between 4.0%-4.5%, 35% between 4.5-5.0%) with an average yield of 4.75% on all MBS transaction. The table below presents the number of transactions under their respective yield category.
We have also analyzed the yield on MBS purchased and MBS sold, looking for price discrepancies between MBS purchased and MBS sold. The data points out that the average yield on MBS purchased was 4.71%, 29bps lower than average yield for MBS sold, thus implying MBS purchased were at a higher price than MBS sold. You know that old government adage, buy high and sell low!
Yield on sale: 5.00%
Yield on purchase: 4.71%
Difference in bps: 29.1
Now, imagine this artificial suppression, both in the form of MBS purchases (which are supposed to be over) and QE in the form of Treasury Ponzi purchases, are overpowered by the market driven rate storm brewing ahead. You also have the government looking the other way at depreciating asset values, see FASB Appears to Have Bent Over For The Final Time & Accuracy In Financial Reporting Dies An Ignominious Death!!!:
I declared insolvency throughout the banking system, and it looked as if I was wrong for some time, then the truth's ugly head started peaking out. See The Financial Times Vindicates BoomBustBlog's Stance On Goldman Sachs – Once Again!
Goldman Sachs has revealed details of about $5bn in investment losses suffered during the crisis for the first time this week, in a move that will deepen the debate over companies' financial disclosures. The figures, issued as part of internal reforms aimed at silencing Goldman's critics, show that the bank suffered $13.5bn in losses from "investing and lending" with its own funds in 2008. But Goldman's regulatory filings and its executives' comments to investors at the time pointed to about $8.5bn of losses arising from its investments in debt and equity, as markets were rocked by the turmoil.
Hmmmm! I walked through this in explicit detail in "When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs???" and I did it without being privvy to Goldman's financial innards. Long story short, practically all of the major banks are lying about the value of some of the largest assets on their books.
How many institutional and/or retail investors will be able to ferret out such? Or more importantly, why should they have to? It is the reporting company's responsibility to report, not to obfuscate. The big problem with this "hide the market marks" thing is that markets tend to revert to mean.Unless said market values fundamentally catch up with said market prices, you will get a snapback. That is what is happening in residential real estate now. That is what happened in Japan over the last 21 years!!! That's right, it wasn't a lost decade in Japan, it was a lost 2.1 decades!
- They refused to mark assets to market
- They attempted to prop up zombie banks
- They failed to promptly clean up NPAs in the banking system
- They looked the other way in regards to real estate value shenanigans
Reggie Middleton Speaks On China, Greece Playing Chicken and US Ponzinomics
A 7 minute video of my opinions on Greek haircuts, US and Manhattan real estate overvaluation, China bubble busting and hard landings, Case Shiller shortcomings and Germany's penthouse suite in the EU roach motel.
Below I have aggregated hours worth of related content via video, blog postings and subscriber research...
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Related blog posts....
The Biggest Threat To The 2012 Economy Is??? Not What Wall Street Is Telling You...
Earlier this week I published a controversial rant on the US education system - How Inferior American Education Caused The Credit/Real Estate/Sovereign Debt Bubbles and Why It's Preventing True Recovery. This was a lengthy piece, but apparently caught the interest of many as it went semi-viral. This is part of the conclusion, attempting to show how US indoctrinated "GroupThink" prevents many (if not most) from seeing what empirically should be obvious.
The First Major Real Estate Collapse In Europe? I've Found The EU Equivalent Of GGP, The Largest Real Estate Failure In US History Monday, 19 December 2011
What many do not understand is that the real estate crash of the previous decade is far from over, because The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance. This is true for not only the US, but the EU countries as well. Unlike our European and Asian counterparts, many US investors are much too detached to what occurs overseas, quite possibly from a hubristic, apathetic or even ignorant stance that what happens over there has little effect on us stateside. Unfortunately, that is not the case. What do you think, pray tell, happens when the liquidity starved, capital deprived, overleveraged banks fail to roll over all of that underwater Eu mortgage debt?
Investors seeking safety in Germany, the UK and France may truly be in for a rude awakening!
Interesting Documentary on the Power of Rating Agencies, Reggie Middleton Excerpts
Continuing my rant on the effectiveness (not) of the ratings agencies, I bring to you an interesting documentary on the rating agencies' effect on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, produced by VPRO Tegenlicht out of Amsterdam. You can see the full video here, but only about half of it is in English. I appear in the following spots: 4:00, 22:30, 40:00... Reggie Middleton Discussing the Rating Agencies effect on Sovereign Europe
Subscriber Research
- Insurer at Risk Report_122511 - Professional/Institutional edition
- Insurer at Risk Report_122511 -Retail edition
Follow The Bread Crumb Trail As Deflated Wall Street Bonuses Crush NYC Residential Real Estate
Roughly a year ago, I explained to those who subscribe to BoomBustBlog that NYC real estate ever finished correcting. As a matter of fact, it has some ways to go, as does DC real estate. The reason why NYC and DC markets levitated was because the Fed pumped trillions into Wall Street to reflate the bubble which was (and still is) the zombie banking system. DC saw federal spending attempt to replicate organic economic growth. Are any of these methodologies sustainable or practical. Do bulldogs have pleasant breath?
Bloomberg reports The Riskiest Bank on the Street and it goes a little something like this: Morgan Stanley Said to Limit Cash Bonuses, Increase Deferrals
Morgan Stanley (MS), owner of the world's biggest brokerage, is capping immediate cash bonuses at $125,000 as the firm curtails pay and defers more compensation for senior executives, according to a person briefed on the plans.
Members of the company's operating committee, led by Chief Executive Officer James Gorman, 53, won't get any immediate cash, said the person, who declined to be identified because the plan hasn't been made public. Mark Lake, a spokesman for the New York-based bank, declined to comment.
The decision comes after a fourth quarter that some analysts predicted was the worst for trading and investment- banking revenue since the financial crisis. Increased salaries and previous moves toward deferring more pay have limited investment banks' flexibility to cut compensation costs, analysts including Atlantic Equities' Richard Staite have said.
Morgan Stanley's decision will increase the average amount of pay deferred to about 75 percent, the person said. The firm deferred an average of 60 percent in 2010 and 40 percent in 2009. Deferred cash for 2011 performance will be paid out in two equal installments in the final month of 2012 and 2013, a change from the previous deferral plan that paid out in thirds over 18 months, the person said
Apart from whether said bonuses were ever really deserved in the first place.... Yes, I'll go back thee again, see Wall Street Real Estate Funds Lose Between 61% to 98% for Their Investors as They Rake in Fees!":
Last year I felt compelled to comment on Wall Street private fund fees after getting into a debate with a Morgan Stanley employee about the performance of the CRE funds. He had the nerve to brag about the fact that MS made money despite the fact they lost about 2/3rds of their clients money. I though to myself, "Damn, now that's some bold, hubristic s@$t". So, I decided to attempt to lay it out for everybody in the blog, see "
The example below illustrates the impact of change in the value of real estate investments on the returns of the various stakeholders - lenders, investors (LPs) and fund sponsor (GP), for a real estate fund with an initial investment of $9 billion, 60% leverage and a life of 6 years. The model used to generate this example is freely available for download to prospective Reggie Middleton, LLC clients and BoomBustBlog subscribers by clicking here: Real estate fund illustration. All are invited to run your own scenario analysis using your individual circumstances and metrics....
... Under the base case assumptions, the steep price declines not only wipes out the positive returns from the operating cash flows but also shaves off a portion of invested capital resulting in negative cumulated total returns earned for the real estate fund over the life of six years. However, owing to 60% leverage, the capital losses are magnified for the equity investors leading to massive erosion of equity capital. However, it is noteworthy that the returns vary substantially for LPs (contributing 90% of equity) and GP (contributing 10% of equity). It can be observed that the money collected in the form of management fees and acquisition fees more than compensates for the lost capital of the GP, eventually emerging with a net positive cash flow. On the other hand, steep declines in the value of real estate investments strip the LPs (investors) of their capital. The huge difference between the returns of GP and LPs and the factors behind this disconnect reinforces the conflict of interest between the fund managers and the investors in the fund.
Under the base case assumptions, the cumulated return of the fund and LPs is -6.75% and -55.86, respectively while the GP manages a positive return of 17.64%. Under a relatively optimistic case where some mild recovery is assumed in the later years (3% annual increase in year 5 and year 6), LP still loses a over a quarter of its capital invested while GP earns a phenomenal return. Under a relatively adverse case with 10% annual decline in year 5 and year 6, the LP loses most of its capital while GP still manages to breakeven by recovering most of the capital losses from the management and acquisition fees..
Now, that we're on the topic of Morgan Stanlely, real estate, and bonuses, keep in mind that there is never just one roach. If Morgan Stanley is slashing bonuses to this extent, so are the other big banks. Remember, I have warned extensively on Goldman Sachs, the big bank that can't trade...
Reggie Middleton Explains the Travails of the F.I.R.E. Sector on CNBC
Here are some links that you are unlikely to find anywhere else...
Just As I Predicted Last Quarter, The World's First FDIC Insured Hedge Fund Takes A Fat Trading Loss
|I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction
I'm Hunting Big Game Today: The Squid On A Spear Tip
Summary: This is the first in a series of articles to be released this weekend concerning Goldman Sachs, the Squid! In this introduction (for those who do not regularly follow me) I demonstrate how the market, the sell side, and most investors are missing one of the biggest bastions of risk in the US investment banking industry. I will also...
|Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?
Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?
Welcome to part two of my series on Hunting the Squid, the overvaluation and under-appreciation of the risks that is Goldman Sachs. Since this highly analytical, but poignant diatribe covers a lot of material, it's imperative that those who have not done so review part 1 of this series, I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part...
|Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw Squid: Goldman Sachs and Market Perception of Real Risks!
Hunting the Squid Part 3: Reggie Middleton Serves Up Fried Calamari From Raw SquidFor those who don't subscribe to BoomBustblog, or haven't read I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction and Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To Be Ignored?, not only have you missed out on some unique artwork, you've potentially missed out on 300%...
|Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With The Squid? Plenty!!!
Hunting the Squid, part 4: So, What Else Can Go Wrong With Goldman Sachs? Plenty!
Yes, this more of the hardest hitting investment banking research available focusing on Goldman Sachs (the Squid), but before you go on, be sure you have read parts 1.2. and 3: I'm Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On A Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction Hunting the Squid, Part2: Since When Is Enough Derivative Exposure To Blow Up The World Something To...
- Hunting the Squid, Part 5: Sometimes Your Local Superhero Doesn't Look Like What They Show You In The Movies
- What Was That I Heard About Squids Raising Capital Because They Can't Trade?
- Reggie Middleton vs the Squid That Can't Trade!
About a year ago I penned a piece called...
Dr. Benjamin Shalom Bernanke, AKA Dr. FrankenFinance, Has Successfully Caused NYC Condo Prices To Be The ONLY Major Condo Market To Rise In Price
As excerpted...
Yesterday, I illustrated how NYC is pulling away from all of the other major condo markets - see "Why Is NYC The Only Major Condo Market Increasing In Price? ". According to the S&P Case Shiller Condo index, is the only major US condo market that not only has firming prices but is actually increasing in price. Chatter and anecdotal evidence from the ground confirms this as developers and speculators are once again bidding up development land, lots and potential conversion properties.
In the afore-linked piece, I gave what I consider to be the cause of this "newfound", yet hard to come by value. The answer??? Dr. Benjamin Shalom Bernanke. You see, Dr. Bernanke has taken over the helm of the "Great Global Macro Experiment" from Alan Greenspan and has supercharged it to the nth degree - all primarily to save our insolvent banking system. Where is the nexus of banking and finance in this country? Answer, right where you see that little positive blip in a chart of otherwise sharply downward trending assets. Trust me, it is not as if there is any dearth of condo unit supply in our dear city, as can be seen in "Who are ya gonna believe, the pundits or your lying eyes?". As excerpted from yesterday's post, here is that same area about a year and a half later...
Now, to remind all exactly how much capital and resources Dr. Bernanke pumped into the NYC area, be aware that this industry was literally on the verge of collapse in 2008 (with two of the five biggest banks literally collapsing and the balance getting bailed out by the government right before they collapsed), yet paid out record bonuses on record earnings less than 8 quarters later. This is even more amazing considering the only fundamental change in to the Frankenstein Monster assets that contributed to these banks [near] demise is that they have further PLUNGED IN VALUE! Yes, I do mean Frankenstein assets. I implore you to delve in further - "Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!" and Financial Innovation vs Financial Fraud.
Let's revisit the charts from yesterday's The Latest Case Shiller Index – Housing Continues Freefall In Aggressive Search For Equilibrium, with a few modifications to make the obvious more,,, well, obvious...
Remember, as bearish as this chart looks, it is actually overly optimistic, markedly so. Far be it for me to beggar the obvious, but why in the hell would an environment that causes the worlds largest banks to collapse like anorexics in a Weight Watchers convention, suddenly get A LOT worse, yet spawn such a surge in the banking industry? Well my dear BoomBustBlogger, its one part regulatory capture (More on Lehman Brothers Dies While Getting Away with Murder: Introducing Regulatory Capture), two parts helicopter stunt man (Great Global Macro Experiment).
On the Regulatory Capture front, let's revisit the FASB tale: About the Politically Malleable FASB, Paid for Politicians, and Mark to Myth Accounting Rules. Remember, the change of these rules to the status of straight silliness that kicked off one of the greatest bear market rallies in the history of US publicly traded stocks. Now, nearly everything financial (as it relates to M2M) is overvalued.
I declared insolvency throughout the banking system, and it looked as if I was wrong for some time, then the truth's ugly head started peaking out. See The Financial Times Vindicates BoomBustBlog's Stance On Goldman Sachs – Once Again!
As excerpted from Did Bernanke Permanently Cripple the Butterfly That Is US Housing? The Answer Is More Obvious Than Many Want To Believe
This near cessation of foreclosure activity has materially dropped the shadow inventory numbers, but has done so in a way that is quite misleading. Those foreclosures either will happen and become REOs or distressed property sales that are currently averaging a discount of ~25% to conventional retail sales (thus further pressuring sales prices), or will result in the properties being put directly on the market at steep discount (again, further pressuring sale prices). Basically, the foreclosure backlog is simply accumulating in the background and will print a very sharp spike upwards one way or another once the foreclosure and fraud issues of the banks are sorted out – even if they are sorted out to the detriment of the banks. Despite this reprieve in foreclosures, the ratio of shadow inventory to home sales is not decreasing. This is a double negative, for shadow inventory is decreasing (albeit for very artificial and temporary reasons). The reason for the lack of movement in this very key figure is that housing sales are actually declining both on a seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted basis – and if these figures were to be adjusted for "true" inflation, would look much worse. This leaves the ratio of delinquent and foreclosure activity to sales relatively static. One can surmise what happens when the foreclosure backlog that was caused by the bank's myriad legal issues clear up.
The most valuable chart in the study just released to subscribers, Shadow Inventory Update -- March 2011 shows how quickly one can expect the shadow inventory to be consumed by the sale of homes. To make a long story short, we still have quite a ways to go before we reach the pre-bubble levels, and that is without taking into consideration the foreclosure moratoriums. Keep in mind that these numbers do not include the pent up shadow inventory that is being hidden by the foreclosure crisis. That additional inventory on top of a slowing housing sales metric can easily tack one to 4 years onto the inventory numbers.
As you can see, the credit (delinquency measures) metrics are actually moderating slightly over the last few quarters, but have increased over the last two. This is a negative sign considering all of the efforts that have been made by the government and the banks to reduce that figure. The foreclosure inventory, although lulled somewhat, is still slightly on the rise. This lull is synthetic and temporary, a by-product of congressional pressure and legal issues pressing the banks to undergo voluntary and involuntary moratoriums on foreclosure activity. The consequent movement to be expected as these moratoriums are lifted, the banks work out their legal issues, and the properties move one way or the other will cause a very dramatic spike in the shadow inventory numbers. This spike will occur on top of slowing housing sales, dramatically reduced housing prices metrics and potentially deteriorating credit metrics (if the most recent trend continues). If that is not enough good news for you, the Goldilocks scenario of the perfect interest rate environment for real estate needs to (and probably will in the near to medium term) come to an end. See The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like It's About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance Friday, March 11th, 2011. Our calculations available ot subscribers show a very bleak outlook for housing. It is not as if there is no precedence for such. Take a look at the Japanese situation, and this is not taking into consideration the recent issues of the earthquake, tsunami and radiation poisoning and nuclear meltdown. Few things are as detrimental to property values as radiation poisoning!
A lesson to be learned: Beware for when a true black swan event occurs...
Further reading:
- Reggie Middleton ON CNBC's Fast Money Discussing Hopium in Real Estate Friday, February 25th, 2011
- In Case You Didn't Get The Memo, The US Is In a Real Estate Depression That Is About To Get Much Worse Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011
- Further Proof Of The Worsening Of The Real Estate DepressionThursday, February 24th, 2011
- You've Been Had! You've Been Took! Hoodwinked! Bamboozled! Led Astray! Run Amok! This Is What They Do! Monday, February 28th, 2011
- FASB Appears to Have Bent Over For The Final Time & Accuracy In Financial Reporting Dies An Ignominious Death!!!Wednesday, February 9th, 2011
- The Latest Case Shiller Index – Housing Continues Freefall In Aggressive Search For EquilibriumMonday, February 7th, 2011
Why Apple Carries $80+b in cash, Battle w/Google, the Housing Outlook Dilemma & CRE
I explain why Apple carries in excess of $80 billion in cash, competition with Google, Samsung, Microsoft, housing and commercial real estate.
Relevant reading:
The Evidence Of Android Dominance Continues To Roll In - iOS Looks To Have Stopped Growing Market Share
Where Are The Pundits And Armchair Analysts When It Becomes Apparent That Apples Is Indeed Susceptible To Google's Android Onslaught?
The Only, and I Mean the Only, Investment/Research House To Warn Of An Apple Miss Is Vindicated!!!
Our Uber Growth Thesis For Google Is Intact and Performing Well
Wednesday, 05 October 2011 06:20


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Patagonia commented:
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Watch the demo:
The project is a HD texture mod for the first part of the game series Thief: The Dark Project / Thief Gold.
Watch the demo:
That's awesome man.
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