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Violin Concerto
No. 1 op.77 (op. 99)
Violin Concerto op. 35
The Israel Philharmonic Orchestra
Itzhak Perlman
Violin Concerto
No. 1 op.77 (op. 99)
Violin Concerto op. 35
Ilya Gringolts
The Israel Philharmonic Orchestra
Itzhak Perlman
Int. Release 01 Aug. 2002
0289 471 6162 2
Track List
Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky (1840 - 1893)
Violin Concerto in D Major, Op. 35, TH 59
Dmitri Shostakovich (1906 - 1975)
Violin Concerto No.1 In A Minor, Op.99 (Formerly Op.77)
Corrected Opus No: op.77
Ilya Gringolts, Israel Philharmonic Orchestra, Itzhak Perlman
Total Playing Time 1:12:27
Deutsche Grammophon's new signing Ilya Gringolts repays the label's faith with strikingly full-blooded, yet searching interpretations of two great concertos. The 19-year-old Russian violinist allows room to develop the broad, romantic melodies of Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto and shape its impassioned drama.
Gringolts brings his own personal qualities to the music . . . Gringolts combines virtuosic energy with security of tone in the Tchaikovsky . . . But it is with the Shostakovich in which he really shines. His is a gripping performance from beginning to end, bringing poignancy and emotional commitment to the two slow movements, a nocturne and passacaglia, and biting intensity to the scherzo and 'Burlesque' finale. Fantasy, control and imagination add up to an auspicious debut indeed.
It is hard to believe how far prize-winning 20-year-old Ilya Gringolts has come . . . His musical gifts are now formidable, his sound warm . . . In the Tchaikovsky Concerto, quite aside from some sublime dialogue with the superb Israeli woodwinds, he charts the first movement in such a way that the lyrical second subject takes on a hushed, other-worldly quality that's quite unlike any other recording. It becomes the musical pivot of the movement.
Ilya Gringolts unlocks the secret of Tchaikovsky work . . . His playing ranges from the flirtatious and beguiling to an ardent declaration of feeling. He is warmly seconded in all this by Perlman's detailed conducting.
His tonal beauty in the slow movement potentiates his strong sense of the melody's direction . . . an unmatchable sense of quasi-mystical rapture . . . this one must be required listening for everyone who takes an interest of any kind in Shotakovich's First Concerto.
Gringolts steht fraglos vor einer Weltkarriere mit seinem federnd-schlanken, melancholisch-herben Ton... Vor allem aber im Schostakowitsch-Kopfsatz zeigt Gringolts tiefen Sinn für Klangfarbenvielfalt und die elegische Bitternis dieser großen Musik.
Sein Tschaikowsky schwitzt nicht, perlt elegant und geläufig, sein Schostakowitsch hat zupackende Attacke und temperamentvollen Biss.
Ein viel versprechendes Talent am Violin-Himmel ist der russische Geiger Ilya Gringolts... Gringolts' technische Möglichkeiten faszinieren. Sein Ton wirkt sinnlich, schlank, jedoch niemals penetrant. Tschaikowsky tönt so überaus frisch und optimistisch gestimmt. Auch Schostakowitsch widmet Ilya Gringolts im a-Moll-Konzert Zielstrebigkeit und stark ausgeprägtes Formbewusstsein. Von diesem jungen Mann wird man noch viel hören.
Gringolts entpuppt sich als empfindsamer Teufelsgeiger . . .
"...very special and very different" - the young violinist Ilya Gringolts
Sitting in a New York café near Lincoln Center on a drizzly spring day, Ilya Gringolts reflects on how he went from being a violin student in St. Petersburg to making his first recording with the Israel Philharmonic and Itzhak Perlman. The story begins with a video of Gringolts playing the violin that his parents sent to some distant cousins in Ottawa. They showed it to a close friend and violinist in Canada's National Arts Centre Orchestra, and he was so impressed by the young Gringolts's playing that he gave the tape to his orchestra's conductor, Pinchas Zukerman, who in turn, after watching it, sent it to an assistant of Itzhak Perlman. Gringolts was promptly invited to attend Perlman's Music Camp in the summer, on full scholarship. It was the first time he had ever been to the United States. During that summer of 1998, Gringolts was also preparing for the Paganini Competition in Italy, and at the camp he was able to practice nearly all the competition repertoire, frequently with Perlman's coaching. In the autumn, still only 16, Gringolts surprised everyone, even himself, by winning the competition's top prize. "It was only the second time I'd ever played the Shostakovich Violin Concerto no. 1 with orchestra", he says. Soon afterward, Perlman invited him to be his student at the Juilliard School. He arrived in New York at the age of 17 and now plans to stay there, at least for the next few years.
Repertoire Background - the violin concertos of Tchaikovsky and Shostakovich
In July 1877, in a desperate bid to overcome his homosexuality, the 37-year-old Tchaikovsky married. The result was disaster, and in October he fled Russia for Italy, spiritually and creatively stunned. In March 1878 he moved to Switzerland and doggedly began work on a piano sonata. Then suddenly everything changed. Two years earlier he had fallen in love with a young violin student, Joseph Kotek, and his passion had held throughout the disastrous events of 1877. Now, in Clarens on Lake Geneva, his idol joined him. Tchaikovsky's mood was transformed, and setting aside the piano sonata, on 17 March he began his Violin Concerto. With Kotek firing inspiration and advising on the solo part, the whole work was sketched within a fortnight. Immediate doubts about the slow movement prompted Tchaikovsky in a single day to compose the one we know (the discarded movement ultimately becoming Méditation, the first of the three violin and piano pieces, Souvenir d'un lieu cher). By 11 April the orchestration was complete.


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Every pickup tells a story, from the hands of those who made it to the hands of those who play it, all the way through to the fans who love the music that it makes. Our vintage pickups are built on these stories. Every one of our vintage humbucker models has a history of its own, traceable to particular significant pickups we've examined, measured, modified or crafted. Here are some of those stories.
The '59 Model is one of our most popular pickups – a versatile '50s-style humbucker with classic tone and attitude. Seymour based this pickup's coil wind on the humbuckers in Jeff Beck's 1959 Les Paul. When we started out as a company in the late 70s, more and more guitarists were playing .009 and .010 gauge strings which tended to sound thin and weak with Alnico 2 magnets. So to meet the demands and adapt to modern times, Alnico 5 magnets were used to compensate for the lighter string gauges. But the coil wind itself is straight from Jeff Beck's '59 Les Paul.
The Whole Lotta Humbucker started life as a conversation with our UK distributor on the possibility of a regional exclusive to celebrate Seymour's time working at the Fender Soundhouse in London. We asked Seymour if he had a specific humbucker wind or mod that he would have done back then that would exemplify this time in his life. He shrugged and said "I don't know, we could probably do what I used to do for Jimmy Page." The rest is humbucker history. The Whole Lotta Humbucker takes off from that classic '59 voicing but overwound to be meatier-sounding, but its essence comes out of the '59 model. Interest in this pickup was so high that we eventually made it available worldwide.
Right before he passed, humbucker inventor Seth Lover bequeathed the actual patent application drawings for the humbucker to Seymour. The SH-55 Seth Lover is built 100 percent as a Patent Applied For pickup was intended to be built; no more, no less. It's the only correct model available. And we use the Leesona pickup machine that we bought from auction when Gibson moved out of Kalamazoo back in the 80s. It doesn't get any more authentic than a pickup wound to the actual patented specs on the very machine that made them in the '50s.
Billy Gibbons' favorite Les Paul, Pearly Gates, is so valuable to him that he didn't want to take it on the road any more. So he came to Seymour and asked "I want my touring Les Pauls to sound like the Pearly Gates; is there anything you can do?" Seymour took those pickups and analyzed them for gauss strength, DC resistance and more. He realized that, much like a lot of P.A.F pickups, they were wound out of spec. They were wound to be a little hotter than they should have been, and the pitch of the way they were wound favored more of a top-end sizzle. That's the Pearly Gates: lots of bite, crunch and body.
Ever since Appetite for Destruction, Slash has always recorded using Alnico II Pro pickups in his Derrig Les Paul replica, a 12-pound monster. As he was getting his signature Les Pauls made, he found that they didn't have as fat a sound, due to factors like weight relief and different materials or wood densities. He wasn't getting the same tone live that he was getting from his records, so when it became time to discuss doing something special, we took the Alnico II Pro as a base line and made it overwound to the point where his current Les Pauls sounded exactly like his Derrig Les Paul. These pickups in a Les Paul-style guitar is as close as you'll get to what recorded Appetite For Destruction.

subset: commoncrawl


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Now you may ask how is this stuff any different from say, ShareThis or AddThis. True, there is some overlap but Tell a Friend service is more about email which is still the most popular way of sharing content.
For instance, your visitors can pull a list of their friends who are currently online on Gtalk or AOL and directly send them a link of the current page. Alternatively, they may select one or more contacts from their address books inside Gmail, Yahoo! or Live Hotmail and send them a message with a link to the current page.
Another reason why some publishes may like "Tell a Friend" more is because it enables their visitors to customize the message before shooting it to their friends.
Also see: Most Useful Blog Add-ons
Update: Since some of you have express concerns over sharing of user names & passwords with a third-party, Vijay Prasanna Pullur of Pramati Technologies writes:
"The problem we address is for the visitor it is not easy to remember email addresses, so it must be made convenient to access within the context of the page. For the site/blog owner, this is a great benefit because the user is not distracted going to actual email program to fetch address and they continue to stay focused. The difference between Addthis/Sharethis is that ours is for direct communication with friends, not a social bookmarking tool which is more indirect. Of course as you said there is some overlap.
One other thing is that we dont store any email or passwords and niether the address book email addresses. We just use the login to pull the address book. As a comparison, Pramati is a 10 year old company with 300 people and large customers, so some credibility to trust our promise.
The site owner also does not get access to the visitors email address or the addresses to whom he/she sent messages using Tell-a-Friend widget. So it is safe to use this widget even on sites not well known. Whereas in email a friend form the site owner is getting the email addresses."


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Red Fish Eye Stud Earring
Organic living is part of the heritage of Humboldt – especially for local artist Greta Daniels whose family hails from Norway. Fish-head soup is the standard fare there, and folklore adds that children would play with the fish eyes in marble-like games. Greta uses Black Snapper fish caught by local fishermen and sterling silver to create these fascinating pieces of jewelry. The eyes are boiled, cured and dyed using a myriad of organic materials like beet juice, coffee, artichoke broth, red onionskins, blackberries and produce in the refrigerator. She also uses Ukrainian Easter egg dyes for more vibrant colors. The only caution is not to wear them in the hot tub or shower. These not only make a beautiful natural piece of jewelry, but a conversation piece. Not often can one wear eyes on your ears, or keep an eye on your spouse by giving him/her a necklace! *This is a handcrafted item - variations in size, color and design elements are to be expected.


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Monday, January 9, 2012
Quinoa with Carrots & Cabbage ~
9 comments:
Looks lovely and I am all about using what I have to concoct something easily and healthfully!ReplyDelete
What is shoyu?!?ReplyDelete
Mmm, this looks delicious!!! I love Quinoa in salads so I'll definitely be giving this one a go!ReplyDelete
danielle ~ shoyu is unpasteurized soy sauce, but you can definitely use regular soy sauce (low sodium is best).ReplyDelete
ok...i am inspired to give quinoa a try...thank you!ReplyDelete
This sounds so refreshing right now. I'm on a serious quinoa kick these days and thankfully, Emerson likes it too. Also been craving raw cabbage. Love it shredded with some sesame oil, seasoned rice vinegar and crushed peanuts. O.k. now I'm really hungry.ReplyDelete
I wish I had your taste buds! You make everything sound SO delicious!ReplyDelete
I love your clean recipes Mel and I am determined to add Quinoa into my weekly menus a bit more........and I love anything with arugula. Thanks, I will be trying this one. XOReplyDelete
Had to PIN this! Oh and HAPPY NEW YEAR!ReplyDelete


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NIDA Program Officer Dr. David Thomas speaks about the intertwined problems of pain and prescription opioid abuse, as well as the research supported by NIDA and the National Institutes of Health to address these problems.
NIDA's Women and Sex/Gender Differences Research Program focuses on gender-specific addiction risk factors and treatment needs.
Describes NIDA's Special Populations Office which promotes addiction science that examines health disparities and foster research careers among members of underrepresented communities.
Reports on the objectives and activities of the Neuroscience Consortium and their impact on Institute drug abuse research programs and initiatives.
Highlights NIDA's research portfolio to identify the genes and genetic processes responsible for a person's vulnerability to drug abuse.
Discusses the work of NIDA's Division of Epidemiology, Services and Prevention Research, organized to track drug use and provide empirically based information for researchers and service providers.
Highlights a project in which nine research centers collaborate with criminal justice partners to test science-based tools for integrating drug abuse treatment in prisons and probation and parole programs.
Describes the role of the Division of Clinical Neuroscience and Behavioral Research in NIDA's drug abuse and addiction research plan.
Discusses the work of NIDA's Division of Basic Neuroscience and Behavioral Research, the Institute's locus for studies into the fundamental brain mechanisms underlying drug abuse and addiction.


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WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama's cautious response to Syria's likely use of chemical weapons reflects a lack of agreement in Washington over aggressive military intervention, but lawmakers in both parties fear that inaction could embolden not only Syrian President Bashar Assad but U.S. foes as well.
The White House cautiously acknowledged that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons, most likely the agent sarin, in the two-year civil war that has killed more than 70,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.
Obama has declared that the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons would cross a "red line" for a major military response, but the White House made clear Friday that even a quick strike wasn't imminent.
White House spokesman Jay Carney said the prospect of the use of chemical weapons in Syria is "gravely serious," but he insisted the administration needed more evidence to bolster its intelligence assessments.
"This is not an airtight case," he said. "We do have some evidence, but we need to build on that."
Emerging from a closed-door briefing with Secretary of State John Kerry on Capitol Hill, House Republicans and Democrats expressed uncertainty about the appropriate next step as the Obama administration considers limited military options.
No lawmaker pressed for a U.S. military invasion after more than 10 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"It is such a muddled picture," said Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. "I think probably we should be asking the U.N. to be involved. I think perhaps that's in the making."
Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger of Maryland, the senior Democrat on the House intelligence committee, was among many lawmakers who called for a cautious approach to Syria even as they acknowledged the seriousness of the situation.
"We want to do everything we can to avoid putting boots on the ground," he told reporters. The U.S. should work with other countries to stabilize Syria and ensure its chemical weapons are kept out of the hands of terrorist groups, he said.
"I don't think that we, just as the United States, want to go in to another war," he said.
Obama's vow that Syria's use of chemical weapons would elicit a strong response and the administration's latest caution raise questions about Obama's definition of a red line. The U.S. credibility and international authority are on the line in the administration's handling of Syria, and the message it sends to Assad and rogue nations such as North Korea and Iran.
"There's no question that when the United States takes a position that this crosses a line that our failure to respond has implications," said Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I., a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "I think the president was saying the use of chemical weapons is a game changer. I think most people agree with that. So that if we in fact determine that chemical weapons were used, I think the expectation is that we and the coalition and others take some action."
Rep. John Mica, R-Fla., wondered whether the red line is "turning into a pink line."
"It's in their ballpark now," he said.
The White House faces a limited choice of military options to help the rebels oust Assad.
Arming the rebels runs smack into the reality that a military group fighting alongside them has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida. Establishing a no-fly zone poses a significant challenge, as Syria possesses an air defense system far more robust than what the U.S. and its allies overwhelmed in Libya two years ago.
The next move on Syria was high on the agenda for Obama's meeting Friday with King Abdullah II of Jordan, as the U.S. ally has struggled with the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees escaping the Syrian violence. Vice President Joe Biden and Abdullah discussed the best path to "a peaceful, democratic post-Assad Syria where moderates are empowered" on Thursday.
"I think it's important for the administration to look for ways to up the military pressure on Assad," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
One of the most powerful of the rebel groups in Syria is Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently declared its affiliation with al-Qaida. Last December, the State Department designated the group a terrorist organization, and the administration's opposition to directly arming the Syrian opposition stems from concerns about the weapons ending up in the hands of Islamic extremists.
Arming the rebels, said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is a "lot harder that it was before."
"We've gotten to the point now where the opposition has been affected by the radicals," Graham said in an interview. "Right weapons in right hands is the goal. The second war is coming. I think we can arm the right people with the right weapons. There's a risk there, but the risk of letting this go and chemical weapons falling into radical Islamists' hands is the greatest risk."
Several lawmakers, including Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., have called for the U.S. to create a narrow, safe zone inside Syria, along its border with Turkey.
Either a safe zone or a no-fly zone would require neutralizing Syria's air defenses. According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, Syria's largely Soviet-era air defense system includes as many as 300 mobile surface-to-air missile systems and defense systems, and more than 600 static missile launchers and sites.
"You can establish it (safe zone) by taking out their aircraft on the ground with cruise missiles and using the Patriot (missile) also. No American manned aircraft in danger," McCain said.
The U.S. has taken only minimal military steps so far, limiting U.S. assistance to nonlethal aid, including military-style equipment such as body armor and night vision goggles.
The U.S. has deployed about 200 troops to Jordan to assist that country's military, and participated in NATO's placement of Patriot missile batteries in Turkey near the border to protect against an attack from Syria.
In testimony to Congress last week, Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked whether he was confident that U.S. forces could secure the chemical weapons caches within Syria.
"Not as I sit here today, simply because they've been moving it and the number of sites is quite numerous," Dempsey said.
Associated Press Intelligence Writer Kimberly Dozier and AP writer Richard Lardner contributed to this report.


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Dusters provide a clean, finished appearance for your otherwise nasty-looking rear cargo area and help hide your gear or personal items from prying eyes or the elements. Combine with a Bikini® top and Windjammer™ and you've hit the trifecta of Jeep summer fun. For 1980-1991 CJ7 and Wranglers.
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Express Chemist Online UK Pharmacy was established in the year 2000 to
provide quick delivery of the best products at competitive prices.
Based in Maidstone, we have become one of the leading online chemists in
the UK. We specialise in treatments for common conditions and offer a fast, efficient
and knowledgeable service. We are a secure, confidential online
pharmacy with a full-time pharmacist. We only list products that we believe
are high-quality and effective.
Express Chemist is an online pharmacy based in the UK.
We deliver medicines and health products within the UK, aiming to despatch as quickly as possible. We also deliver internationally. We focus on providing the best value and the best customer service. Our trained staff are helpful, friendly and an integral part of the team - we don't believe in call centres! As required by pharmacy law, our pharmacist oversees all medicine sales and ensures that we are delivering the best possible treatment to you. We provide excellent after-sales service and will keep you informed of any possible delays to your order. We provide a discreet service and ship all orders in plain packaging. We take our responsibilities as an online chemist seriously, and won't share your details with anyone else and won't send you any unsolicited mail or email. Our site is secure, and payments are processed by Worldpay (part of the Royal Bank of Scotland), which means that your credit card details are 100% secure. Express Chemist is registered with the General Pharmaceutical Council as an internet online pharmacy and is regularly inspected and audited.
Whatever your medical condition or need, we will do our best to help.
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Book your dream ski experience now
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Where do you want to ski?
We've teamed up with our local insiders to find out the top 10 ski resorts in the US, can you guess who is number 1?
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SnowPak teams up with mountain experts from across the globe to create unique guides for the world's best ski resorts. Packed full of insider knowledge that puts you in a local's ski boots, it's more than just the how to get there, where to stay, and what's the après-ski like.
You'll know where to find fresh powder when everywhere seems tracked out and learn handy lift hacks to keep you on the slopes longer. Whether you're an experienced freerider or an excited never-ever, everything you need to plan and book your snow vacation is right here at SnowPak.


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Not in Regina? Team building activities near you
Here at Regina Team Building, we are always on the lookout for individuals who are self-motivated, creative, and driven to succeed. Our event management jobs in Regina provide an outlet for employees to truly make a difference in the world doing something they are passionate about.
We have over 20 years of experience in the event planning industry, and we've built up a long list of customers that count on us to offer them innovative, creative solutions for their events. Our customers are scattered throughout North America and in various parts of the world, and we take pride in our ability to offer them fast, flexible services at any time.
Our Regina event planning jobs are the perfect way for any individual to flex their creative muscles and really see results. Our Event Coordinators are given the task of working with our customers to execute an engaging, entertaining event. Our teams use their problem solving skills to meet budget requirements, and their creative minds to come up with events and activities that help customers reach their ultimate goals.
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We are focused on offering our customers fast, flexible, trusted employee team building solutions. When you choose Regina Team Building, you choose to work for a company that can grow your career rather than just give you a tedious job to get by. Our work is always exciting and gives you a chance to interact with unique people from all over the world. It's simply an experience you can't find anywhere else.
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Arizona Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson already lost the tip of his finger, but concern remains that he could lose even more.
Coach Bruce Arians told SiriusXM NFL Radio on Tuesday night that Johnson's stubbed digit, which caused him to miss last week's 13-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, got worse before Johnson was pulled from practice last week.
"There was a slight infection after the first hit, when they had the cast on," Arians said, per Fox Sports.
Arians blamed the infection on the cast that Johnson wore and said the safety is being fitted with a new one.
"There's no telling what germs you're trapping in there when you ball it up and put the cast on," Arians said. "The stitches are still there. He could evidently lose more of the digit if he bangs it too much, and with any infection they could have to take more off. We're going to be careful with it."
Arians said he wants the special-teams star on the field, but the team won't rush him back. Johnson's status for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers remains in question.
With Tyrann Mathieu taking over the starting safety job, there is no need to push Johnson onto the field. Mathieu has displayed superb playmaking ability and ball skills to complement strong safety Yeremiah Bell.
It was only a matter of time before Mathieu took over the starting role. Johnson's unfortunate injury just sped up the process.
The "Around The League Podcast" reviewed every Week 4 game. Click here to listen and subscribe.


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This Thanksgiving, oddly, I've spent the past two days sorting out the crafty photos from my nearly 13,000 digital photos that I store in an external hard drive (Yep, 13,000, and I DO look at them. Often.). It was by turns tedious and sweet, as I'm sure you can imagine of such a big project. Here are a very few of my favorites of those 4,000 crafty pics:
As you can tell, some of the photos reflect my pride in the things I make to give or sell, but most reflect the pleasure I take in creating for and with my family, and the pleasure of watching my little girlies growing creatively.
Speaking of creative growth, I have a date tonight to go to the Southside High School football game to watch my little baby cousin Zachary, somehow a freshman in high school, play the tuba in the marching band. That sweet little lamb with the short-alls and the mop of bright red hair, who called me "Jewee" and played me in Super Mario Bros., is pretty much a man now, and a good one at that.
If only he didn't have to attend my rival high school--Southside? Ugh. Northside High School RULEZ!


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Search results for '1700'
Charisma$40.00 Per YardIn the late 1970s, Fifield created Charisma ™, a smooth simulated suede that has maintained a well-deserved reputation for elegance and diverse application. Constructed of nylon and non-woven polyurethane and available in more than 20 different colors, Charisma ™' is remarkably resistant to light. Well suited for displays and luxury packaging, it is also used in the toy and sports industries as well as for medical supplies. Learn More


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Home » Our Work » Research » Research Grants » Fatal Decisions: Behavioral Economic Study of Decision Pathways to Suicidal Behavior in the Second Half of Life
Fatal Decisions: Behavioral Economic Study of Decision Pathways to Suicidal Behavior in the Second Half of Life
Katalin Szanto, M.D., Western Psychiatric Institute, University of Pittsburgh
2011 Standard Research Grant
Inside the Research
Bio: Dr. Szanto received her medical degree in 1980 from Semmelweis Medical University in Hungary. She is currently an Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic at the University of Pittsburgh. She has received NIMH funding and a past AFSP Young Investigator Grant.
Research Categories: Pathways to suicide, suicide attempts in older adults
Abstract: It is difficult to understand the thinking of someone who attempts or dies by suicide. Some people seem to act impulsively while others seem engaged in premeditated and deliberate suicidal behavior. Both types of thinking can be deadly. Dr. Szanto will investigate decision profiles associated with a predilection to deliberate (planned attempts with high medical lethality) versus impulsive (less premeditated attempts often causing less medical damage) suicide attempt. Decision-making abilities will be assessed at four complementary levels: 1) behavioral (decision-making in the laboratory); 2) cognitive (decision making problems); 3) self-report (of problem-solving, impulsivity, and interpersonal reactivity); and 4) real-life (history of poor decisions). The study will enroll and assess 90 individuals ages 40 to 60, including deliberate and impulsive suicide attempters, depressed individuals without suicide attempts, and non-psychiatric controls. Dr. Szanto hypothesizes that she will find an association between the type of attempt that was made and the pattern of performance and responses obtained on the decision-making measures. These varying patterns may help us to understand different pathways to suicide attempts.
Impact: To develop interventions that can be tailored to each person's profile of decision-making strengths and impairments.


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Resources and Screencasts from the Northeast MSDN Roadshow "Don't Fear the Coder" Tour
As we gear up for the next Northeast Roadshow series (in March), Jim and I have put the wraps on the previous tour by posting the content and recording screencasts based on each session.
The "Don't Fear the Coder" tour was a blast, and Jim and I visited a whopping seven cities across the northeast in November and December. Sincere thanks to everyone who was able to attend!
The Sessions…
We've recorded screencasts based on each session so people who couldn't attend (or attendees taking a second look) can still get at the core content.
As always, you can find resources on the Northeast Channel 9 Page and the content and screencasts on the Northeast Roadshow Code Gallery.
Session 1 - Something WCF This Way Comes
The mysterious figure of Windows Communication Foundation approaches from the swirling mist, but are its intentions good? Rumors abound that it can be complex and not for the faint of heart. We'll take a renewed look at WCF, discovering a practical tale of services, connectivity, integration, and more. Our focus will be on WCF's current nature, but we'll briefly preview what's in store for us with .NET 4.0. WCF turns out to be a great ally, so you'll be glad you stood your ground.
Screencast | Presentation Content
Session 2 - RIA Window: MVVM, Silverlight, and Expression Blend
You'll code your next Silverlight application with grace after you catch this session, which presents the primary motives for using the MVVM pattern. Focusing on the use of Expression Blend, we'll cast a designer's lens on Silverlight development enabling you to plot a hitch-free course for your future projects.
Screencast | Presentation Content
Session 3 - Grasping at Lifelines: Finding Developer Help
In the fight to slay invading bugs and put fearsome requirements to rest, sometimes you need a helping hand. In this brief lunchtime session, we'll review options for finding assistance – ways to report and view issues you find, help systems, websites, team options, communities, and more. Breathe easy, there's no need to wander alone in the dark.
Screencast | Presentation Content
Session 4 - LINQ De-Crypted
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Friday, March 16, 2012
Chess, intelligence and winning arguments
We have all had arguments. Occasionally these reach an agreed upon conclusion but usually the parties involved either agree to disagree or end up thinking the other party hopelessly stupid, ignorant or irrationally stubborn. Very rarely do people consider the possibility that it is they who are ignorant, stupid, irrational or stubborn even when they have good reason to believe that the other party is at least as intelligent or educated as themselves.
Sometimes the argument was about something factual where the facts could be easily checked e.g. who won a certain football match in 1966.
Sometimes the facts aren't so easily checked because they are difficult to understand but the problem is clear and objective. One famous example is the Monty Hall dilemma. In a certain game show a contestant is presented with three doors, behind one of which is a really desirable main prize and behind the other two are booby prizes. The contestant is asked to choose the door he thinks the main prize is behind. The game show host, who knows where the prize is, then opens a booby prize door. He can do that even if you picked the main prize door. The contestant is now offered the chance to change his choice to the other closed door. The question is – should he? The correct answer is that he should because it would double his chances of winning the main prize. This fact proved so hard to grasp that only 8% of the laymen and 35% of academics who tried it, got it right initially. Many of them damned Marilyn vos Savant for misleading the public with her answer in her Parade column Ask Marilyn. Among those academics getting it wrong, were a fair number of senior professional mathematicians and statisticians, including the great Paul Erdos. After a great deal of explanation, the proportion of people who accept the correct answer increased to 56% of laymen and 71% of academics. The figure is more like 97-100% for those who carried out an experiment or simulation, so in essence a large proportion of those approaching the problem through pure logic continue to fail to grasp it.
Sometimes the facts aren't as mathematical or logical as the Monty Hall solution. Each party to the argument appeals to 'facts' which the other party disputes. The disputed facts could be anything from the validity of the theory underlying a phenomenon, or the empirical results supposedly shedding light on the topic. A good example would be the debate among economists about the causes of the most recent US recession and the most useful way out of it. On one side are those who think the solution is less government spending to reduce deficits, and simply leaving the economy to painfully sort out major structural mal-investments and imbalances. They believe intervention is likely to create worse problems later. The other side says aggregate demand is the problem and that the recession can and should be fixed via some kind of fiscal and monetary intervention. This side believes intervention will make things better, not worse, in both the long and short term. Both sides claim that the other side's view has been thoroughly discredited by empirical events in the past, and will point to current events 'obviously' supporting their expectations, or when they haven't will issue dire warnings that it will, soon. A similarly insoluble argument is being had around the 'facts' of global warming.
Sometimes the arguments boil down to differences in values. For example, what tastes better chocolate or vanilla ice cream, or who is prettier Jane or Mary? In these cases there isn't really a correct answer – even when a large majority favors a particular alternative. Values also have a strong way of influencing what people accept as evidence or indeed what they perceive at all.
The unreasonableness of continuing disagreement
The interesting thing is that when the disagreement isn't a pure values difference it should always be possible to reach agreement. Robert Aumann, a Nobel winning game theorist (who I've had the pleasure of chatting to) proved that under conditions of common knowledge it isn't possible to agree to disagree – even when the parties start with completely different information, facts and theories. In a simplified format it goes like this. Party A says the answer is X. Party B, who considers the answer to be Y, hears this and, if rational, will think "A must either have access to evidence that I don't or doesn't have access to some evidence that I do." Under the notion of evidence I include not only facts but also the reasoning process. B may say that "Notwithstanding the possibility that I may have missed evidence I am still very confident in the evidence that I have so I will say I think the answer is Y". A now hears B's answer and goes through a similar chain of reasoning. He thinks "Gosh B has evidence he is so confident about that exposure to the knowledge that I have different evidence hasn't shaken him. He must think his evidence is particularly strong. I should take that into account when evaluating my own evidence." At this point A could decide he isn't all that confident in his own evidence, and concede the argument to B. Alternatively he could decide that in spite of B's confidence he still considers his own evidence to be persuasive, and re-affirm that he thinks the answer is X.
The ball now passes back to B, who now faced with A's continued confidence in his evidence, even after making allowances for B's confidence in his own evidence, must upgrade his view of the strength of A's evidence relative to his own. He must then decide whether he is still thinks his evidence is strong enough to carry the day. He can decide "No it isn't", and concede the argument to A, or "Yes it is" and say he still considers Y to be correct. The process goes on until one of the parties concedes. At any point either party's actual evidence can, and probably will, be shared and explained. Some readers may recognize this as an iterative Bayesian process. Others have extended Aumann's analysis, and have shown that the process won't go to infinity and should come to a conclusion in a reasonable number of iterations. The upshot of this is that if an argument doesn't result in an agreement, at least one of the parties involved is being irrational or dishonest.
The rest of the article makes the unrealistic assumption that people will be rational and honest when arguing.
IQ and relative correctness
Item response theory connects a latent trait e.g. intelligence or IQ, with the probability getting a particular item in a test correct. Typically they look like this.
The formula producing these lines is
The "a" coefficient tells one how steeply the probability rises as IQ rises i.e. how much solving the item depends on ability as measured by IQ versus how much the solution depends on uncertainty and luck. The "b" coefficient tells one the difficulty level of the item.
Suppose we select two IQ levels and compare the probabilities of a correct answer for each IQ level. With a bit of arithmetic we can show that the ratio of
p(IQ2)/p(IQ1)=exp(a*( IQ2 - IQ1)).
Suppose two people with IQs at level 1 and 2 respectively disagree about the answer. In effect they argue about it. Then the probability of person with being right in the event of a disagreement is
p(2 is right) = p(2)*(1-p(1))/((p(2)*(1-p(1)) + p(1)*(1-p(2))). Similarly for p(1 is right).
More arithmetic gives
p(2 is right)/p(1 is right) = exp(a*( IQ2 - IQ1)) too.
Therefore, when two people argue over the correctness of something, the probability of who is right is determined by the difference between their respective abilities and the degree to which solving that problem actually depends on ability. The difficulty of the item is irrelevant.
A chess diversion
Chess's ELO rating system uses a similar method to calculate the probability of a player winning, but use base 10 rather than base e. So according to the ELO rating system used by FIDA
p(player a)/p(player b)=10**(Ra – Rb)/400 (which obviously = exp(a*( IQ2 - IQ1)).)
- where Ra is the ELO rating of player a.
This means that if the player's ratings differ by 200 points then the highest ranked player should take roughly 3 out of every 4 wins between them. A ratings difference of 400 points means 10 wins for the highest ranked player for every win for the lower ranked player. The median rating for members of the US Chess Federation was 657 and rating of 1000 is regarded as a bright beginner. International Grandmasters typically rate 2500+, and the very best players have ratings slightly over 2800. To give you an idea of the differences in skill, consider that if the very best were to play an average player the ratio of wins is likely to be 227772 to 1. The difference between a grandmaster and a good beginner would be 5623 to 1.
The identities above mean that we can easily convert an IQ difference into an equivalent ELO ratings difference, using the following formula
Ratings difference = 173.7178*a*(IQ difference)
- "a" is the coefficient telling us how much the item depends on IQ for its solution.
I looked at the distribution of FIDA ratings in order to convert them to an IQ metric. For example, about 2% of chess players have ratings as 2300 or higher and 0.02% have ratings over 2700. If IQs are normally distributed, with an SD of 16, then these ELO ratings would correspond to 132 and 157 on the IQ scale. Note this doesn't mean that chess players with a rating of 2700 will actually have an average IQ of 157 – it's just a different way of specifying the same thing e.g. like a change from the Imperial to the Metric system.
I did however find a study (1) that allowed me to map real IQs onto chess ratings in experienced players. The equation is
Chess rating = 18.75*IQ – 275.
It turns out that the expected real IQs are very close to the IQ metric I calculated from the ratings distribution. (Note that the equation I developed is quite different from the one hypothesized by Jonathan Levitt (3) i.e. Rating = 10*IQ + 1000.) One should also be aware that the equation gives an average IQ – the actual IQs vary quite a bit around the expected figure. For example, the authors show that threshold effects exist and that the minimum IQ needed to achieve a rating of 2000 is around 85-90. This is 30-35 IQ points lower than the expected IQ. Also from his peak rating Garry Kasparov's expected IQ is 167 (and wild claims of 180+ have been made) but his actual IQ was measured at 135 (in a test sponsored by Stern magazine), some 32 IQ points lower.
I suppose one could derive a rule that the minimum IQ required for a peak rating is some 32 IQ points (or 2 SDs) below the expected IQ. Alternatively, it means that if you have a combination of memory and industry in line with elite professional chess players, your peak rating is likely to be 600 ELO points higher than it would be if you were like an average chess player in these respects. Your chances of winning could be as much as 31.6 fold higher than your IQ suggests – or that much lower. That says something about the relative value of focused application.
Assuming that the distribution of combined effort and memory is symmetrical, it also means that a 64 IQ point advantage can not be overcome - even if the brighter player is also among the very laziest with a bad memory, and the less intelligent player has a superb memory and is among the most dedicated.
Even after accounting for IQ and work the predicted ratings are still a little fuzzy so perhaps random factors play a role too.
IQ and ELO rating differences in other domains
Here I look at converting the effect of IQ gaps to ELO rating differences, across a variety of domains
Let's get back to the IQ to ELO rating conversion. Recall that the equation is
Ratings difference = 173.7178*a*(IQ difference).
All that remains is to find "a" for everything we are interesting in.
Clear Objective problems
The obvious place to start is IQ test items. The "a" coefficient for more fuzzy IQ test items tend to be around 0.046, and around 0.086 for really efficient IQ test items. That means that for fuzzy items each additional IQ point is worth 8 ELO points, and it's worth 15 ELO points for good IQ items. If these items are used in a weird tournament where players compete to solve puzzles instead of play games, and we set the bar at a 3 to 1 win ratio (a 200 point ELO rating difference), then fuzzy items will require a 25 point IQ gap, and efficient items a 13-14 point IQ gap.
Physics mastery
Using information from an article by Steve Hsu (2) I worked out that a 3 fold advantage at "winning" at a physics exam – where a 'win' is an A in the exam when your opponent failed to get an A – requires an IQ gap of 12 points. If however a win is defined as a 3.5 GPA (where your opponent fails to attain this), then a mere 6 IQ points will provide a 3 fold advantage.
We could view cops and killers as being involved in a grim contest. In the USA around 65% of all murders are solved. That converts to an average "murder" ELO rating difference between police and murderers of 108 ELO points. It is also known that the mean IQs of murderers and policemen are 87 and 102, respectively. So successfully solving murders is a puzzle then the "a" coefficient is 0.041, and each IQ point difference is worth 7.2 ELO points. A 3 fold advantage could be had with a 28 point gap between cops and killers. In other words some 31% of outstanding murders could be solved if the USA selected its policemen to have an average IQ of 125 i.e. to be as smart as an average lawyer. I'm not sure if that's worth it but maybe some cost benefit analysis would help. Such an analysis would have to take into account the drop in murder rates (with a life currently being valued at $2 million) due to the greater odds of being caught, and the opportunity cost of taking professional level IQs out of the pool for other professions, where they might be even more productive.
Controversial issues
Finally we get back to real arguments – disagreements over controversial topics. According to my Smart Vote concept (see http://garthzietsman.blogspot.com/2011/10/smart-vote-concept.html), if proportionally more smart people systematically favor an alternative then that alternative is likely to be correct or better. Using that definition of "correct", and information in the General Social Survey, I calculated the "a" coefficients and ELO to IQ ratios etc for a few controversial questions. Typically it would take an IQ difference of 30-50 points to gain a 3 fold advantage in a rational argument.
Tasks with a high level of uncertainty
For comparison I looked at an intellectual game that includes a large element of chance – backgammon. A rating equation gives
p(player a)/p(player b) = 10**Rating diff/2000
for individual games. The difference from chess is that it divides the rating difference by 2000 instead of 400. It would take the result of a string of 21-22 games to provide the same test of relative skill as does a single game of chess. Controversial questions are less fuzzy, less uncertain, or more tractable to intelligence, than backgammon. If people 'played' a series of arguments over controversial questions instead of a series of backgammon games, then it would take maybe 5-6 such arguments to provide the same test of relative skill/wisdom in arguments, as a single game does in chess.
A summary table
Some meaningful IQ or ELO rating differences
Some research shows that friends and spouses have an average IQ difference of 12 points, that for IQ differences less than 20 points a reciprocal intellectual relationship is the rule, for IQ differences between 20-30 points the intellectual relationship tends to be one way, and that IQ differences greater than 30 points tend to create real barriers to communication.
An IQ gap of 12 points implies a roughly 67-72% chance of winning an argument over a clear objective issue, like verbal or math problems, and close to a 57-61% chance of winning an argument over a controversial question. A 30 point IQ gap implies an 87-91% chance of winning a verbal/math item argument, and a 63-67% chance of winning an argument over controversial issues. It seems as though there is a very fine line between intimacy and incomprehension on controversial issues (a mere 6% difference) but a fair gap on more objective issues (a 20% difference).
Perhaps it isn't so much the IQ gap that matters to people, as the proportion of differences of opinion they win or lose i.e. the ELO rating difference. That in turn depends on the balance of clear objective, uncertain, and controversial issues in their disagreements. In general however, it seems that people don't like to lose more than 2 in 3 disagreements, and when they lose more than 3 in 4 of them they feel like they aren't on the same planet anymore. Those proportions correspond to ELO ratings differences of 100 and 200 respectively. An ELO rating difference of less than 100 feels tolerable and reciprocal while a difference of more than 200 feels unfair or unbalanced. If that theory is right, when most of the issues are fuzzy or uncertain the larger IQ differences should occur between friends and spouses, but when they are mostly clear objective issues then those IQ differences will be smaller.
1. Individual differences in chess expertise: A psychometric investigation. Roland H Grabner, Elsbeth Stern & Aljoscha C Neubauer. Acta psychological (2006) but I got it from www.sciencedirect.com.
2. Non-linear psychometric Thresholds for Physics and Mathematics. Steven D.H. Hsu & James Shombert. http://arxiv.org/abs/1011.0663
3. Genius in Chess. Jonathan Levitt.
26 comments:
Garth do you have references for Erdos being confused by the monty-hall problem? I've heard this before but simply can't bring myself to believe it. Once you try to think how you'd simulate it it really is not that hard a problem.ReplyDelete
Also arguments and chess both rely on things things that have (almost) nothing at all to do with IQ. Most notably specific knowledge. What is Kasparov's go rating?
Finally alot of arguments I've had have ended in agreement on a position entirely different to either parties start position.Replies
The Monty Hall problem is often mis-stated when posed in conversation. The standard solution (switch doors, win 2/3 of the time) depends on Monty Hall's having pre-committed to open a door, but never to open the winning door.Delete
Well yes. It also depends on Monty being equally likely to open either wrong door in the case where you got it right (as oppossed to say, you knowing he opens the door with the lowest number he can)Delete
Jonathan: the Erdos thing apparently is sourced to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Loved_Only_Numbers with some excerpts in http://archive.vector.org.uk/art10011640ReplyDelete
> Finally we get back to real arguments – disagreements over controversial topics. According to my Smart Vote concept (see http://garthzietsman.blogspot.com/2011/10/smart-vote-concept.html), if proportionally more smart people systematically favor an alternative then that alternative is likely to be correct or better. Using that definition of "correct", and information in the General Social Survey, I calculated the "a" coefficients and ELO to IQ ratios etc for a few controversial questions. Typically it would take an IQ difference of 30-50 points to gain a 3 fold advantage in a rational argument.
Problem is, you have inappropriately generalized from IQ test questions to 'rational argument'. Not only is this a stretch, but we have a lot of evidence that it is *not* true.
There are tons of fallacies in inductive and deductive logic that intelligence helps little or not at all with! I've examined the sunk cost fallacy in some detail (http://www.gwern.net/Sunk%20cost) as one of the irrational arguments that intelligence does not save one from, and there are literally dozens of others: Stanovich's 2010 book _Rationality and the Reflective Mind_ cites them and discusses the issues at length as he develops a process-1/process-2 architecture. There was one fallacy, IIRC, where intelligence was even a slight penalty to correctness.
(Very brief summary: IQ tests only measure an ability to abstractly 'simulate' problems and apply learned strategies, but half the battle in life is knowing when to use them in the first place and 'override' a quick superficial understanding. Hence, someone can have a high IQ and routinely commit fallacies, and they do just that.)
On a side note:
> Scored an IQ of 185 on the Mega27 and has a degree in psychology and statistics and 25 years experience in psychometrics and statistics. He is available to do any stats analysis you might profit from.
This is a really awful capsule biography.Replies
By 'rational argument' I meant the mythical case where people are fully open to evidence and admit when they are wrong.Delete
In cases like the sunk cost fallacy high IQ people usually make mistakes like everyone else. The point however is that on average they make them less often. Typically you see stuff like 70% of a smart group get it wrong but 90% of the dull group do. That trend, and not the % correct, is what points to the better answer.
I have a big collection of common logical mistakes people make (gleaned from Tversky & Kahneman mostly, but also many others). On all those I've tried so far - including the sunk cost fallacy - the brighter group does quite a bit better, even though most still get them wrong. Contrary to what you are saying here the Smart Vote does particularly well on such fallacies.
Thanks for the references. I will look them up.
I would love to chat to you more about these fallacies.
Oh I should also note that when there is no systematic relationship between IQ and opinion then intelligence is of no help with that problem. I do not claim that high IQ can answer all questions.Delete
My claim is rather that when there is a systematic IQ related difference of opinion, that cannot be explained by bias, then there exists a better answer and it is the one (or those) favored more often by the brighter group - not necessarily by the majority of bright people.
"the probability of who is right is determined by the difference between their respective abilities and the degree to which solving that problem actually depends on ability. The difficulty of the item is irrelevant."ReplyDelete
This is misleading. In general, easy problems are less dependent on ability than hard problems.(until you get to problems that are so hard no one can answer them). everyone gets 1+1 right.Replies
The probability of an individual solving the problem depends on the item difficulty as well as its correlation with ability but who's right when 2 people disagree depends only on the correlation.Delete
More accurately is depends on the gap between the IQ below which no one can solve it and the IQ above which everyone can. The size of this gap is not necessarily related to item difficulty or even correlated (once complexity is equated).
As a FIDE 2400+ player, I take issue with the statement that one can easily fact-check who won a certain football match in 1966. The entire Engineering School of my old university (Oxford) attempted that, and concluded that England failed to win that match by 6 centimeters, which is not even 2.5 bloody inches! What with the quality of the video in those days, you can't even really call that a fact-check, now can you?ReplyDelete
:-) aside, I may be able to test some of your assertions about differences in Elo...Replies
I concede your point. I'll have to use a different example in future.Delete
I would appreciate some collaboration on ELO differences - especially by someone with a decent ELO rating.
I once asked a former South African chess champion how it felt to play against people with ratings 100, 200, 300 or 400 points above and below him. Unfortunately I didn't get a helpful answer.
Sure---if I can. One problem I've already discovered is that it's hard to get a good sample of games between players 200 or more Elo points apart. International round-robin tournaments tend not to have that reat a rating difference. Open/Swiss tournaments have more variable conditions. I took a small sample but got strange results---and if you look at my papers, the error bars are already pretty sizable on my good-sized training sets.Delete
Hi KennethDelete
Your papers are fascinating. Have you applied any of these intrinsic metrics to Magnus Carlson's recent games?
When I asked about how it feels to play against someone a certain number of Elo points above or below yourself I had in mind some kind of psychological measure like
8 totally overwhelmed
6 thoroughly intimidated, feel utterly foolish and incompetent
4 definitely feel outgunned but feel I can last a fair time
2 feel opponents advantage but it is so slight that feel random events will play a big role
0 matches could go any way
and a similar scale for feelings while being the superior player.
I wanted to be able to map ELO ratings differences to such a scale. The idea is to get some idea of what it feels like to have a difference of opinion across a known IQ gap on problems with specific g (general intelligence factor) loadings.
By the way I figure discussions will be better by email and tried to email you using the email listed on your site. I got a "no such domain exists message". Perhaps you could email me at garth dot zietsman at g mail dot com
If you're so smart, why do your charts all look like crap? The ones about IQ and crime had horrible kerning, and this one has some horrible pixelly resize thing going on.ReplyDeleteReplies
No matter what you do with typography, it will take 20 hours to get right, the software will be broken within the year, and someone will tell you that you are doing it wrong anyway.Delete
To tell the truth I'm fairly ignorant when it comes to computers. It doesn't work when I try to copy Excel or Word Tables into blogspot but since it does allow images I've tried to convert tables into images. I'm not happy with the results either and would appreciate advice.Delete
Anyway thanks for the feedback.
This comment has been removed by the author.Delete
From your comment and the appearance of your images, I'm guessing you're converting tables to images using commands built into Excel or Word. If the tables originally look better when viewed on-screen in Excel or Word (perhaps using Print View), you'll probably get much better results with a simple cropped screenshot of the on-screen table.
There are numerous free screenshot utilities to accomplish this, but the one I prefer is MWSnap (h++p://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html). It hasn't been updated since 2003, has a few minor bugs, and doesn't have any annotation features, but it still works well with WinXP_Vista_7. For your purposes, snapping screenshots using the "Any rect. area" button on the MWSnap GUI will probably work best (after clicking the button, click on any corner of the desired-size rectangle and then click on the diagonally opposite corner).
For tables, charts, and other graphics, you'll probably get the best results saving screenshot images as PNG files, instead of JPG or GIF files. (JPG files are generally better for the color gradations found in photos, and GIF files are often visually degraded.)
Hope that is helpful. ;)
...Unless the poor text image quality is due to screenshots taken on an old CRT monitor instead of a higher resolution LCD monitor... ...if that's the case, I'm not sure what to suggest. ;)
Have you seen:ReplyDelete
Argumentative Theory of Reasoning
about this (fairly recent) paper:
Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory
Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber
In general for controversial issues, humans first decide what
they want to be true and then find arguments to support their
side. Intelligence can actually make things worse because smarter
people are better at manipulating facts to support their viewpoint.Replies
Indeed that's true. For that reason any INDIVIDUAL smart person's opinion is suspect. Also particularly suspect are views that have been formed in a group context because of the greater social incentive to win the contest rather than find the truth. Assuming that such biases are randomly distributed independent judgments, aggregated over a wide range of people should get past those problems.Delete
If that is true then a significant difference in the aggregated independent opinions of a very smart and a very dull group should boil down to a whatever defines the groups. One of these differences is the ability to find correct answers. Others are of course systematic differences in interests in the outcome. The Smart Vote is valid to the extent that these non-cognitive interests are accounted for.
Thanks for the links.
Looking at round robin tournaments surely will get odd results. I played tournament chess in HS. The best player in our school could almost always beat everyone else. The 2, 3, and 4 players could almost always beat #5 and below, and the #5 could almost always beat anyone below him. Herewith the problem- Call 2, 3 and 4 A, B, and C, because we can't figure out who best among them. I was A. I could ALWAYS beat B, who could ALWAYS beat C, who could ALWAYS beat me. Different styles of playing, different thought processes.ReplyDelete
I've seen the idea of A beating B beating C beating A used to illustrate absurdity before. And anytime I see it used as such, I bring this up. I've seen it in other one-on-one activities, also, between people of almost equal skill. Tennis and racquetball. Fencing. Because I've seen and been part of such a triad, I don't find them unlikely at all. Ratings systems probably have a tough time with such results...
The top 4 of us all started entering USCF tournaments. During the first tournament, I won the first round, against a 1600 rating, and drew the second game, against an over 2000 rating. He showed me how I could have forced a mate after accepting my offer of a draw. At the end of the first tournament, I had a provisional rating higher then that of the other 3. Didn't last long; the law of averages showed up, and I settled at at about 1700, where B and C also settled out. The #1? Currently rated well over 2000- he still plays tournament chess. 39 years later.
The median rating is only 657? Wow.... Didn't realize until now I was actually a good player.
I discovered your blog yesterday from a reference to the SmartVote on lesswrong.com. Wow. Amazing stuff so far.ReplyDelete
One minor correction: on your table above you have an item you call: "reduce taxes rather than reduce social spending" I'm guessing that should be "increase taxes rather than reduce social spending"?
"The Monty Hall problem is often mis-stated when posed in conversation. The standard solution (switch doors, win 2/3 of the time) depends on Monty Hall's having pre-committed to open a door, but never to open the winning door."ReplyDelete
Garth, this, of course, is nonsense. Look at it this way. There you are. You chose one door, one door is open with the booby prize and one door you didn't choose is left closed and available to you. Will it benefit you to switch? Well that depends on whether Monty Hall knew there was a booby prize behind the door when he opened it. It does? How could what Monty Hall knew or didn't know affect what is behind a door? It can't, of course. The problem is, and this is common with math guys, that they assume that the truth of an individual event is determined by the truth of a large number of essentially identical events. It's not.
A wonderful example of this difference is the St. Petersburg Paradox. If one evaluates the problem from the perspective of an essentially endless number of rounds, one ought to be willing to pay just about any amount of money for the right to play a round. The return, mathematically, is infinite. Yet in reality, when give ONE opportunity to play, people rarely are willing to pay more than $1.
There is another way of looking at this. That is the mathematicians are wrong in evaluating the rational choice based upon the set of all games played if we assume that Monte Hall does not know what is behind the door. If we assume that, there is a probability distribution of what will be behind the door that Monty opens. But that probability distribution has collapsed in this case. We should only be evaluating the results of those cases where Monty chose a booby prize. This is not only correct, it resolves the rather odd conclusion that what Monty did or did not know affects the rational choice.
As I think that the Monty Hall problem itself is well g-loaded and might be generally diagnosstic of about 130 D15IQ, understanding why the rational expectation is not affected by what Monty Hall did or did not know is diagnostic of something North of 160.
What is your take?
Make that $7. Also, I see that the actual result is 8% which would be a D15IQ of 121. Perhaps then the more difficult understanding of the second point is north of 150.ReplyDelete
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In this section
Dr. Clinton Beckford
Shortcut to Contact Information Section Shortcut to Profile Section Shortcut to Research Interests Section Shortcut to Courses Taught Section Shortcut to Publications Section Shortcut to Education Section
Email: email@example.com
Phone: (519) 253-3000 ext 3804
Office: Room 3309, Leonard & Dorothy Neal Education Building
Professor, Ph.D. University of West Indies
1. Education
2. Geography
Pre-Service Courses
Graduate Courses
Beckford, C.L., Campbell, D. and Barker, D (2011) Sustainable food production systems and food security: Economic and environmental imperatives in yam cultivation in Trelawny, Jamaica. Sustainability, 3 (3) 541-561.
Beckford, C. L. and Nahdee, R. ( 2011) Teaching for ecological sustainability: Incorporating indigenous philosophies and practices. What Works: Research Into Practice (36). Literacy and Numeracy Secretariat of Ontario.
Roland, K. and Beckford, C.L. (2010) Supporting Associate Teaching and Mentoring of Teacher Candidates: Building a Community of Practice. Literacy Information and Computer Education Journal, 1 (2), 153-162.
Beckford, C.L., Jacobs, C., Williams, N. and Nahdee, R. (2010) Teaching Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability in EE: Infusing Indigenous Epistemologies. Journal of Environmental Education 41 (4), 239-248.
Campbell, D. and Beckford C.L. (2009) Negotiating Uncertainty: Jamaican Small Farmers' Adaptation and Coping Strategies, before and after Hurricanes. A Case Study of Hurricane Dean. Sustainability, 1 (4), 1366-1387.
Beckford, C.L. (2009) Sustainable agriculture and innovation adoption in tropical small-scale food production systems: The case of yam minisetts in Jamaica. Sustainability, 1 (1), 81-96.
Barker, D. and Beckford, C.L. (2008) Agricultural Intensification in Jamaican small-scale farming systems: vulnerability, sustainability and global change. Caribbean Geography, 15 (2), 160-170.
Beckford, C.L., Barker, D. and Bailey, S.W. (2007) Adaptation, innovation and traditional knowledge: Resource use and survival strategies on domestic food farms in Jamaica. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 28, 273-286.
Beckford, C.L and Barker, D. (2007) The role and value of local knowledge in Jamaican agriculture: Adaptation and change in small-scale farming. The Geographical Journal, 173 (2) 118-128.
Barker, D. and Beckford, C.L. (2007) Unearthing the yam stick problem: Insights into farmer innovation in Jamaica. PLECserve, United Nations University and Australian National University http://c3unu.edu/plec January, 2007.
Barker, D. and Beckford, C.L. (2006) Plastic yams and plastic yam sticks: Perspectives on indigenous technical knowledge among Jamaican farmers. Journal of Economic and Social Geography, 97 (5) 535-546.
Barker, D. and Beckford, C.L. (2003) Finding sustainable ways of staking yams and sourcing yam sticks in Jamaica: An environmental and economic imperative. Caribbean Geography 13 (2) 145-155.
Beckford, C.L. (2002). Decision-making and innovation among small-scale yam farmers in central Jamaica: A dynamic, adaptive and pragmatic process. The Geographical Journal, 168 (3) 248-259.
Beckford, C.L. (2000b). The organization of the informal commercial trade in yam sticks in central Jamaica. Caribbean Geography, 11 (2), 91-99.
Beckford, C.L. (2000a) Field research among small farmers in the Caribbean: Notes for interviewers. Caribbean Geography, 11 (1) 58-65.
Book chapter
Beckford, C. L. (2011) Issues in Caribbean Food Security: Building Capacity in Local Food Production Systems. In Food Security. Editor Anna Aladjadjiyan. Rijeka, Croatia: INTECH.\
Beckford, C.L. and Bailey, S.W. (2009) Vulnerability, constraints and survival on small-scale food farms in St Elizabeth, Jamaica: Strengthening local food production systems. In McGregor, D., Barker, D. and Dodman, D. (Editors), Global change and Caribbean vulnerability: Environment, economy and society at risk? 218-236. Kingston: University of the West Indies Press.
Barker, D. and Beckford, C. L. (2003) Yam production and the yam stick trade in Jamaica: Integrated problems for resource management. In Barker, D. and McGregor, D. (Editors) Resources, planning and environmental management in a changing Caribbean, 57-73. Kingston: University of the West Indies Press.
Conference Proceedings
Beckford, C. L. and Roland, K. (2009) "Examining the role of associate teachers: Perspectives from the field." Proceedings of the London International Conference on Education, November 9-12, Customs House Hotel, London, England. LICE-2009, 183-184. Infonomics Society
Stoilescu, D. & Beckford, C. L. (2009). Constructivist and Critical Theory Aspects in Computer Science Education. In T. Bastiaens, Dron, J., and Xin, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of World Conference on E-Learning in Corporate, Government, Healthcare, and Higher Education 2009 (pp. 3168-3175). Chesapeake VA: AACE.
Ph.D., University of West Indies
B.A., University of West Indies
Teachers' Certificate, Church Teachers' College
Marium Tolson-Murty (Master's Thesis) "Factors influencing Black students in Windsor and their pursuit of post-secondary education." University of Windsor, 2008.
Julie Payne (M Ed. Major Paper) "Strategies for success of English as a Second Language in the mainstream classroom." University of Windsor, 2007
Laura Bates (M Ed Major Paper) "The design, development and suggested implementation of a thumbnail sketch for administrators to support educational support staff." University of Windsor, 2007.
Jennifer Scott (M Ed Major Paper) "A handbook of differentiated instruction in elementary schools. University of Windsor, 2007.
Jason Georges (Major Paper). "Examining the relationship between academic achievement and level of extracurricular participation in male high school students. University of Windsor, 2006.
Marilena Biasi (M Ed Major Paper) "The design and development of a resource guide for the fifth grade science teacher with a focus on the Ontario curriculum." University of Windsor, 2006.
Angela Fields-Castagna (M Ed Major Paper) "The impact of extracurricular activities on academic success, student motivation, and school life: Effective approaches to maintaining and implementing an extracurricular program in schools." University of Windsor, 2006.
Jennifer Huggins (M Ed Major Paper) "Strategies for authentic assessment and evaluation for elementary science programs: The design and development of a handbook for the elementary teacher." University of Windsor, 2006.
Dorian Stoilescu (M Ed Thesis) "Classroom practices and teaching methods as factors in gender inequity in undergraduate computer science programs." University of Windsor, 2006
Pareshkumar Pandya (M Ed Major Paper) "A curriculum model for environmental education in per-service teacher education." University of Windsor, 2006.
Cathy Knowler (M Ed Thesis) "The nature and impact of youth/police mentoring programs on the values and attitudes of youth: Case study of the OPP Youth Summer Camp." University of Windsor, 2006.
Fred Macapagal (M Ed Major Paper) "The relationship between perceived teaching style and beliefs and attitudes towards classroom management: A case study." Faculty of Education, University of Windsor, 2005.
Debra Laforet (M Ed Major Paper) "Practical ideas for differentiated instruction in Ontario junior classrooms." Faculty of Education, University of Windsor, 2005\
Oscar Vicente (Doctoral Candidate) "Elementary School Students Perceptions of Outdoor School Environments: A Study of Schoolyards and Playgrounds in Windsor" In progress.
Blessing Igbokwe (Doctoral Candidate) "Environmental literacy assessment: Investigating the impart of environmental education programs" In progress
Louise Gonsalvez (Doctoral Candidate) "Using Bricolage Method and Critical Discourse Analysis to Address the Gaps, Exclusions and Oversights in Active Citizenship Education" In Progress
Chrispina Lekule (Doctoral Candidate) "Investigating School Experiences of Vulnerable Children in Singida Tanzania: Implications for School Leaders and Policy Makers "In Progress
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Usablenet Assistive is a UsableNet product. Usablenet Assistive Main Page.


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Rockwell RK9000 JawHorse
Hands Free Portable Workstation
The Rockwell Jawhorse is a portable workstation clamping system that can do what you want, where you want. It weighs approximately 43 lbs and its jaws will open to a maximum of 37", large enough to handle a full size door. It features a trademarked hands free foot-pedal that will allow you to compress the jaws to over 2,200 lbs. It is like having an extra set of hands on any project. The Jawhorse workstation folds up for easy storage and has a built in wheel for portability around the jobsite.
See LARGER IMAGE
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New model coming soon.
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| August 4, 2011, 7:30 am
TechStars, the nationally recognized technology accelerator, graduated 12 startups in its fifth Boulder class.
The Boulder-based mentorship program said this year's crop of graduates is one of the most diverse in its history, with founders ranging from industry veterans to college graduates to a high school student.
Founded in 2006, TechStars operates five 13-week programs a year in four cities: Boulder, Boston, Seattle and New York, which hosts winter and summer sessions.
This year's Boulder graduates are slated Read more…


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MarketJS designs and develops purposeful games for clients from around the world. Our games are cross-platform and tailor-made to your requirements.Request a free consultation
Purposeful Games are games which contain a journalistic or editorial principal in some way, shape or form. They allow organizations to engage the consumer in a fresh and meaningful way, such as raising awareness of an important event or issue.
Purposeful Games are based on real world issues. However, the games can be designed in such a way that it combines fictional relief as well as an editorial perspective on things.
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Green Monday is a social enterprise group that promotes green, healthy and sustainable living. We created a shopping-themed game to help educate the general public make pro-green shopping choices.
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A news agency in Taiwan approached us to build a game to highlight an important local cultural event. The objective was to inform and walk users through a typical cultural event, and to wish them good fortune.
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This no-nonsense questionnaire was supplied copyright free from Frederick E. Reichheld, author of two best-sellers: The Loyalty Rules! and The Loyalty Effect: The Hidden Force Behind Growth, Profits and Lasting Value. Reichheld, a Bain Company consultant, is a well-known (and often quoted) speaker.
Value Proposition Survey Questions for Voice of Customer (VOC). This sample questionnaire template measures both the satisfaction of and the importance to your customers of your value propositions. With this questionnaire you may find that customers are very satisfied with your brochures and documentation, but do not consider them important, a sign you may be spending too much money on them.
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I never really liked that movie August Rush as much as everyone else did, I think. I hate films in which characters don't make all the pertinent information clear to each other. I mean, why didn't Felicity just TELL the social worker that her father had forged her signature on the adoption papers? Instead, the social worker was all, "You're a bad mom!" and Felicity was all, "I know, right?"
Anyway, Sydney's latest composition, her interest intrigued by my and Willow's interest in the guitar, reminds me of that film:
It's wrong, I know, but I'm already imagining them both on the main stage at Lollapalooza.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
The Third Member of the Band
2 comments:
- cake said...
didn't see the movie, but WOW! i don't think your lalapolooza dream is too far out. she's got a gift.
- April 1, 2010 at 1:24 PM
- julie said...
I wonder if I should keep them both on guitar, for an Indigo Girls sort of aesthetic, or move Will to the violin for a Dixie Chicks sort of feel?
- April 2, 2010 at 9:18 PM
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When you have reached the top and something's still missing, where do you go? Brian "Head" Welch's life was spinning out of control. As lead guitarist for the band Korn, people worshipped his music. He made all the money, had all the cars, houses and women he could handle, but still found himself with a crippling addiction to Meth. "I could not stay sober. I did not know how. I hit rock bottom."
There's a point when you finally look in the mirror at an image that you are simply tired of seeing. Brian wanted to quit, but what if quitting required complete surrender?


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Mother pleads guilty to trading sex with daughter for drugs
4 men arrested in case awaiting trial
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A mother accused of trading her then-6-year-old daughter for sex with four men in exchange for drugs and money pleaded guilty Wednesday morning.
Dalina Nicholas, 36, pleaded guilty to four counts of child neglect. She was arrested last March.
Police were tipped off to the abuse by a homeless man who flagged down a Jacksonville Beach police officer and reported what was happening to the child, prosecutors said.
The man told police he "witnessed Nicholas tell the victim to take off her clothes and lay on a mattress in the living room, saw the suspect give Nicholas $20, and then perform oral sex on the victim," according to police reports.
Nicholas is one of five people arrested in the case. Quinn Brooks and Ryan Harrover have been charged with sexual battery and lewd or lascivious molestation. John Hagans and Norman Thompson have been charged with sexual battery. All four co-defendants have pending trial dates.
Nicholas faces 15-30 years in prison. She will be listed as a witness in her co-defendants' cases and will be sentenced at the conclusion of all related cases, prosecutors said.
Copyright 2012 by News4Jax.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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I love the truck over all. I have a standard cab 8 ft bed with a v8 5.0. Sadly, it is only a 4x2 but it is very easy to convert to 4x4 since the frames are the same. I would definitely recommend this truck to anyone and I would certainly buy it again
Ford F-150 Ratings, Reviews and Analysis
America has had a love affair with Ford F-series full-size pickups since 1948, making it the longest-running American made vehicle model. As of model year 2013, the F-150 has also enjoyed the honor of being the most popular American made truck. This is because Ford makes them with quality, although there have been some fits and starts and growing pains over the years.
There have been a number of times throughout the years that the automotive press has decried some shortcomings they found with the F-150 they were reviewing. Usually, these shortcomings were in the power department. Basically, even though the engines that Ford engineers were putting in the F-150 were comparable in size to those being put in their competition, they were seriously underpowered. Because of this lack of power, the trucks didn't accelerate as fast as the competitors' trucks did and they didn't have the same towing capacity. However, they were Ford F-150s and people still bought them.
Ratings & Reviews
Engine failed after two months. Warranty repair took nearly ten months and two dealers to diagnose and repair. The engine died due to oil starvation and the warranty repair included reinstalling old OIL STARVED engine components. Ran great for two months and began to rattle/knock at idle. Also burning approximately 1/2L of coolant per week. Dealer says everything is OK, no comment when questioned about coolant loss or engine rattle. Fuel economy dropped to 8mpg recently. Overall the worst vehicle purchase I have made.
Mileage fair rides great plenty of room looks good sounds great throttled up with throttle body spacer and cold air intake dash display fair but newer models look much better and having the rear locker would be nice replacing front shocks ow costly
This is a TRUCK. Ford makes a quality vehicle overall, and even with the minor interior quality issues I had I would buy it again and recommend it highly. Ford trucks are made to be used as trucks, even the pretty ones. I loved my truck.
I need a vehicle that will handle a variety of situations. My F150 dresses up for special events, drives comfortably across the country, or climbs muddy mountains and hauls tools and firewood for me. Better gas milage would be a plus but I'm happy.