text:
The State of the Union speech typically has a minimal impact on markets. And it only has fleeting effects on specific market sectors, as Bill Watts notes here.
However, markets do pay attention for shifts in tone on economic issues, and the state of Washington's dysfunction.
Looking back to the beginning of the Kennedy administration the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a decline of 0.03% on the next trading day after the big speech. Since 1961, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a gain of 0.0026% on days after a Republican address and a loss of 0.07% on trading days after a Democrat address.
The index was up 13 of the 26 times a Democrat gave the address.
It's been up 14 of the 28 times a Republican spoke.
Starting with President Reagan, the last five presidents have given a speech to a joint session of Congress in the first year of their administration, though these have not technically been "State of the Union" addresses.
The biggest percentage decline after a State of the Union address in the period came on Fri. Jan. 28, 2000, after President Clinton's final address. The Dow Industrials ind fell 2.6% that day.
The biggest percentage gain came on Wed. Jan. 30, 1991, a day after the first President Bush gave his third state of the Union address. The Dow Industrials rose 1.9% that day.
Here's how the presidents performed in their State of the Union addresses, at least based on the Dow index's move the next day:
Kennedy 1-2
Johnson 5-1
Nixon 1-5
Ford 3-0
Carter 1-3
Reagan 3-5
G. H.W. Bush 1-3
Clinton 4-4
G. W. Bush 2-6
Obama 2-3
See the sortable table below for more on the Dow Industrials and Washington's big night.
-- Tom Bemis
Follow The Tell @thetellblog
Follow Tom Bemis @TomBemis


text:
Allok Video Joiner 4.1.1201 | 8.3 MBAllok Video Joiner is a powerfull tool to join or merge multiple AVI, Divx, XviD, MPEG, WMV, ASF, RM, MOV, 3GP, MP4 files into one large file in various format. You can add an unlimited number of video files to the list and easily rearrange their order if needed , then merge the videos files to AVI, Divx, XviD, MPEG, VCD, SVCD, DVD, WMV formats. It also supports join video files to VCD/SVCD image and DVD-Video files, so you can burn them into one VCD/SVCD/DVD disc easily by using third-party buring tools. It's very easy to use and fast with high quality.
Key Features• Join or merge various video files to a large one.
• Supports AVI, Divx, XviD, MPEG, WMV, ASF, RM, MOV, 3GP, MP4 files.
• Join or merge supported files to AVI, DivX, Xvid .
• Join or merge supported files to MPEG1, MPEG2.
• Join or merge supported files to VCD,SVCD,DVD compatible MPEG formats.
• Join or merge supported files to VCD SVCD image(*.BIN,*.CUE) and DVD-Video files(*.IFO,*.VOB,*.BUP).
• Join or merge supported files to WMV.
• Cut unwanted parts by specifing start time and end time.
• All encoders/codec are built-in and any supported conversion can be done once you downloading the software.
• NTSC/PAL setting options for DVD, VCD, SVCD exporting.
• Support "Drag and Drop" from Windows Explorer.
• Custom define the output audio volume.
• Add letterbox to keep the original aspect ratio.
• Support large video file, even large then 2GB.
• Fast conversion speeds and high quality.
• Simple GUI and very EASY to use.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
New York City's first subway death of 2013 came just hours into the new year, when a 28-year-old woman reportedly laid down on the tracks and was struck by a train, the New York Post reported.
Dana Ferrari, from Pennsylvania, had spent New Year's Eve with her fiancé attending a Phish concert.
The concert was at Madison Square Garden, above the 34th Street station where she was killed. She was struck by a northbound No. 2 train at 5:20 a.m.
Her sister told the Post that "Dana definitely wasn't a drinker." However, witnesses said she appeared intoxicated and that she walked down service stairs in the subway station before climbing down onto the tracks, according to the Daily News.
Gothamist reports that the city Medical Examiner's Office has not determined the cause of death, and is doing testing.
In 2012, 139 people were hit by New York City trains; 54 died. The problem is such that subway operators consider themselves lucky if they go five years without hitting someone who has fallen onto the tracks.


text:
Top honors in animation awarded tonight at UCLA Royce Hall, watch live broadcast here at Hollywood Daily Star on February 1st at 7pm pt
By Gabrielle Pantera
HOLLYWOOD, CA (Hollywood Daily Star) 2014/2/1 – Watch the Annies live here at 7pm pt!
Top honors in animation named tonight in live broadcast from UCLA Royce Hall, watch it here:
Live television stream recommended by Gosh!TV
Tweet your comments!
Guest Presenters include Mariska Hargitay, Cloris Leachman & Richard Dreyfuss
BURBANK, CA (January 27, 2014) – Patrick Warburton is set to host the animation industry's
most prestigious night — the 41st Annual Annie Awards — on Saturday, February 1 at UCLA's Royce Hall.
Joining him on stage will be a lively mix of animation luminaries, celebrity presenters and comedic talent including actors Mariska Hargitay, Cloris Leachman, Ariel Winter, Josh Gad and director Rob Minkoff.
Also assisting with presenter duties will be animation legend June Foray and voice actors Bill Farmer,
Tom Kenny and Nancy Cartwright.
"The Annie Awards is our major event each year and it seems that its profile keeps rising along
with the widening influence of animation," says ASIFA-Hollywood President, Frank Gladstone.
"I love the event and look forward each year to the fun and surprises that the awards always deliver."
This year's Winsor McCay recipients are Katsuhiro Otomo, Steven Spielberg and Phil Tippett.
The Winsor McCay Award stands as one of the highest honors given to an individual in the animation industry in recognition for career contributions to the art of animation. The June Foray award will be presented to Alice Davis and the Ub Iwerks Award will be presented to Dragonframe. The Special Achievement award will be presented to the Creative Talent Network (CTN) and Certificate of Merit to the documentary "I Know That Voice."
Live streaming begins at 7 p.m. PST. VIP Tickets are sold out.For up-to-the minute details on the 41st Annual Annie Awards, please visit www.annieawards.org.
Host & Presenters for the 41st Annie Awards
Saturday, February 1, 2014 – UCLA's Royce Hall, Los Angeles, CA
Often a predictor of the annual Academy Award for Best Animated Feature, the Annie Awards honor overall excellence as well as individual achievement in a total of 30 categories ranging from best feature, production design, character animation, and effects animation to storyboarding, writing, music, editing and voice acting. Entries submitted for consideration were from productions that originally aired, were exhibited in an animation festival or commercially released between January 1 and December 31, 2013.
ASIFA-Hollywood is the world's first and foremost professional organization dedicated to promoting the Art of Animation and celebrating the people who create it. Today, ASIFA-Hollywood, the largest chapter of the international organization ASIFA, supports a range of animation activities and preservation efforts through its membership. Current initiatives include the Animation Archive, animation film preservation, special events, classes and screenings.
Created in 1972 by veteran voice talent June Foray, the Annie Awards have grown in scope and stature for the past four decades.
For information on ASIFA-Hollywood, please visit www.asifa-hollywood.org. For information on the Annie Awards, please visit www.annieawards.org.


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I'll be co-presenting a couple of sessions at SQL Saturday #172 in Portland, Oregon this weekend (11/3). The lineup for this event looks great, with a lot of speakers who will also be at the PASS Summit the following week.
First up is an SSIS session with SSIS Design Pattern co-author Tim Mitchell (Blog | Twitter).
SSIS Incremental Load Design Patterns
In this session, we will review the common decision points surrounding incrementally loading data, and will demonstrate some of the methods for incremental processing.
At the end of the day I will be co-presenting a hybrid data movement talk with fellow MS employee, Adam Larson.
Efficient On-Premise to Cloud Data Transfer
Thinking about moving some of your operations to Azure? Have multiple remote sites, and want to use the cloud to centralize and share data between them?? Just like hearing talks about data transfer performance?! Have we got the session for you! We'll cover some common user scenarios, and describe when and how to use the latest Microsoft data transfer technologies, including SQL Server Integration Services (SSIS), SQL Data Sync (a capability of SQL Database), and more.
Hope to see you there!


text:
Becoming a top candidate for promotion doesn't happen overnight. You have to build a track record of proven performance and demonstrate the skills required for the job. Consider the following strategies to propel yourself to the top of the list:
- Gather information. Find out which factors the decision makers consider when judging an employee for promotion and see how you measure up.
- Use your job to demonstrate skills. Make sure you can display the necessary capabilities in your current position. If not, work with your boss to develop a needed skill and make sure senior leaders notice.
- Get feedback on your presence. Ability to project confidence is a key factor in promotion decisions. Seek candid feedback to understand how others perceive you.
Adapted from "Positioning Yourself for Career Advancement" by John Beeson.


text:
East Lansing Food Delivery & Restaurant Menus
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Find restaurants and order food delivery in East Lansing near Michigan State University. If you're hungry, we've got you covered. Now with EatLansing.com, students, faculty and residents can easily browse delivery and takeout menus, search for new restaurants, and satisfy any craving! We love our East Lansing restaurants, and we strive to make ordering as simple, satisfying and affordable as possible. Our easy-to-navigate mobile and online ordering platforms, combined with our exclusive student-focused deals, provide customers with a dining experience that requires no effort but offers huge savings. When you're hungry, EatLansing!
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text:
The Hope College Jazz Arts Collective and jazz chamber ensembles will perform on Tuesday, Feb. 5, at 7:30 p.m. in Dimnent Memorial Chapel.
The concert was originally scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 7, but has been moved to Tuesday, Feb. 5, due to a scheduling conflict.
The public is invited. Admission is free.
The Jazz Arts Collective will be performing "Being With You," by Gordon Goodwin; "Face in the Mirror," by Rick Helzer; "McCoy's Mood," by Paul Rinzler; "Little Lucas," by Eric Alexander; and "Express Train," by Jim Rotundi. The selections to be performed by the jazz chamber ensembles will be announced during the concert.
The Jazz Arts Collective is the premier large jazz ensemble at Hope College. The collective places a creative focus on ensemble communication and improvisation. Comprised of a rhythm section and flexible wind/string instrumentation, this select group performs compositions and arrangements from across the full spectrum of music. The collective's repertoire ranges from the great historical jazz composers such as Duke Ellington and Charles Mingus, to works by modern jazz masters like Vince Mendoza, Jim McNeely and John Hollenbeck. The Jazz Arts Collective frequently performs commissions, works by emerging young composers, and originals by Hope faculty and students. The ensemble also collectively reinterprets and re-imagines the music from the 20th century classical repertoire.
The jazz chamber ensembles afford students the opportunity to perform in the classic small group combo setting. The ensembles vary in size and instrumentation and place a creative focus on improvisation and group communication. All of the ensembles perform works from the classic jazz repertoire. The more advanced jazz chamber ensembles also perform repertoire from the contemporary jazz world. These ensembles also place an emphasis on original student and faculty compositions. All ensembles are coached by members of the Hope jazz faculty. The jazz chamber ensembles are open to anyone interested, regardless of experience with jazz.
Dimnent Memorial Chapel is located at 277 College Ave., on College Avenue at 12th Street.


text:
Urgent Alert: Neda Amin Iranian Blogger in Turkey facing Imminent Deportation to Iran!published on Wednesday, August 02, 2017
I have just been alerted to the case of Ms. Neda Amin, an Iranian blogger who has been residing in Turkey for the past two years and has had refugee status. It has come to my attention that the Turkish Government is threatening to deport Ms. Amin back to Iran on August 5th 2017! Ms. Amin has been blogging for the Persian edition of Times of Israel for the past two years as well as writing on her personal blog about the situation in Iran.
Given Ms. Amin's affiliation with Times of Israel she faces grave danger is she deported to Iran.
The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs has created an online campaign to support Ms. Amin. Please find the link to the Online Campaign HERE
As well the organization Change.org has created an online petition to support Ms. Amin. Please find the link to the petition HERE
For a full article on Ms. Amin's background and current situation please refer to THIS ARTICLE on the UNWATCH.org
If Ms. Amin is deported this may lead to Erdogan's Government deporting more and more Iranian and other refugee's which would lead to a very tragic end.
This is an urgent matter as Ms. Amin is scheduled to be deported on August 5th 2017! Please act as soon as possible!
Sayeh Hassan is an Iranian-Canadian Lawyer, blogger and Pro-Democracy Activist
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text:
Obama's college math doesn't add up
Early in his presidency, Barack Obama promised the United States would lead the world in college graduates by 2020 — a signature promise he's reminded people of many times since.
But his own administration's numbers show he won't come close.
Story Continued Below
The goal is a key part of the president's long-term economic plan: Only by having an educated workforce, he argues, can the country hope to stay competitive. For a president who's running for a second term in large part on having the plans to make the right improvements to the economy, this is a central part of his argument on the central issue of the election.
But the realities of ballooning costs, budget cuts and underprepared students are in his way. If gains were to continue at the same rate they have on average for the past five years, it would take until 2036 for the country to reach Obama's goal for 60 percent of Americans ages 25-34 to have college degrees, based on a POLITICO analysis using methodology suggested by the Education Department. In 2011, only 43.1 percent of this group had college degrees.
Still, as the president outlines his economic plan, he vows to make the jump from 16th in the world to first. "I want to make sure that the United States of America once again has the highest percentage of college graduates because that is going to help determine who wins the race in this global economy in the 21st century," he said last week at a San Antonio fundraiser, as he often does on the campaign trail. And he's still pushing new education initiatives, such as one aimed at promoting excellence for African-American students that he created with an executive order signed on Thursday.
Obama campaign policy director James Kvaal said the 2020 goal is "an ambitious goal, but I think it's a possible goal," and pointed to periods like the years after World War II, "when educational attainment has increased by great amounts in short periods of time."
Justin Hamilton, the Education Department's press secretary, said the administration sees the goal as "attainable" and pointed to its efforts to expand Pell Grants and federal loan programs, as well as its proposals to incentivize colleges for innovating and containing costs, as steps in the right direction.
But, he said, "we're not going to get there with the status quo."
The Obama administration doesn't have a clear plan to reach its goal — let alone a wide-reaching initiative that's being implemented — and the clock is quickly ticking toward 2020.
"It's a moon shot," said Terry Hartle, senior vice president of government and public affairs at the American Council on Education who worked as an education adviser to the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.). But there's no comparable infrastructure in American higher education to the work NASA did to put man on the moon by the end of the 1960s.
To Rick Hess, director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, the administration has set "rhetorical, nonsensical goals."
"I'm sure the goal's not attainable if we don't have a strategy to reach it. And the Obama administration doesn't have a strategy," said Margaret Spellings, who served as an education secretary for George W. Bush and now advises the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The federal government has "basically put some money out and hoped for the best."
Education Secretary Arne Duncan sees federal money as the first step toward reaching the goal but has left much of the work toward achieving it to states and institutions.
"As the president has said, the countries that out-educate today will out-compete us tomorrow. The federal government has done a tremendous amount to increase the amount of aid available to students," he said last week in prepared remarks to the National Governors Association's summer meeting. "But it's up to the states and colleges to do the rest, "to meet us halfway by doing more to keep college costs down."


text:
PPM is the package management utility for ActivePerl. It simplifies the task of locating, installing, upgrading and removing Perl packages. The PPM client accesses PPM repositories (collections of packages) on the internet or on a local network. It is also used to update previously installed packages with the latest versions and to remove unused packages from your system.
PPM is installed automatically with ActivePerl.
To use PPM, your computer must be connected to the internet, have access to a PPM repository on a local hard drive or network share, or have access to a mounted ActiveState ActiveDVD.
If you connect to the internet via firewall or proxy, you may need to
set the
http_proxy environment variable. See PPM, Proxies and Firewalls for
more information.
Access to the Solaris PPM repository requires an ActivePerl Business Edition license.
To launch PPM's graphical user interface, run
without any command line arguments:
The interface should look something like this:
When launched, PPM automatically synchronizes its local database with the installed perl packages (including those installed manually or via the CPAN shell). The interface is temporarily locked while this synchronization takes place.
Hovering the mouse pointer over icons in the toolbar displays tool tips describing what each button does. These buttons are:
Use the Filter text field to limit the packages displayed in the Package List pane to those matching the text entered (case insensitive substring match).
Click the magnifying glass icon to select which package meta-data to match against:
The Package List pane can display the following columns of package information:
The Status tab displays messages about the current status of the PPM client, marked actions, and information about the actions being run.
The Details tab displays package information and, for installed packages, a list of all installed files.
All PPM operations and configuration can also be performed at the command line. See the ppm man page or 'ppm help' for more information.
To find a package in the repository:
As text is entered in the Filter field, the list of packages is automatically updated as the substring match becomes more precise. Click the magnifying glass icon to filter on different meta-data (e.g. Author).
Alternatively, just start typing the name of the package. The Package List will highlight the first package that matches the string you have typed.
To install a package from the repository:
To remove a package from your local perl installation:
To upgrade a package to the most recent version available in the repository:
Installation Areas can be selected and Repositories configured by clicking the PPM Preferences button or selecting Preferences from the Edit menu.
PPM allows for the addition of new install areas, which is useful for
shared ActivePerl installations where the user does not have write
permissions for the site and perl areas. New install
areas are added by simply setting up new library directories for perl to
search, and PPM will set up install areas to match. The easiest way to
add library directories for perl is to specify them in the
PERL5LIB environment variable, see the perlrun manpage for details. PPM
will create etc, bin, html directories as
needed when installing packages. If the last segment of the library
directory path is lib then the other directories will be
created as siblings of the lib directory, otherwise they will
be subdirectories.
The Repositories tab lists the repositories that PPM is currently configured to use and allows you to add additional ones. Simple PPM repositories are just a directory containing ppm packages. You can create your own by putting packages in an HTTP, FTP directory or a locally accessible mount or filesystem directory.
To add a repository fill out the fields in the Add Repository pane and click Add.
To remove a repository, click the icon next to it.
Enabled repositories show the icon; disabled ones show the icon. Click these icons to toggle between states.
http://ppm4.activestate.com/MSWin32-x86/5.8/819/ ActiveState's PPM Repository
Note: ActiveState does not maintain PPM repositories for AIX, Solaris x86, Windows x86_64, or Linux x86_64. Use the CPAN shell to install perl modules on these platforms.
http://theoryx5.uwinnipeg.ca/ppms/package.lst The University of Winnipeg's 5.8 PPM repository http://bioperl.org/DIST A repository of Bioperl packages http://www.roth.net/perl/packages/ Roth Consulting's package repository http://www.bribes.org/perl/ppm/ the "Bribes de Perl" (Scraps of Perl) repository (en Français et Anglais)
http://cpan.uwinnipeg.ca/htdocs/faqs/cpan-search.html Randy Kobes' excellent package search engine, with browsable categories of the packages at the University of Winnipeg's CPAN site, allows you to search for modules and displays the availability of Win32 ppm packages from a number of repositories.
On systems where ActivePerl is installed in a directory that is not writable by
users (i.e. owned by
root), a new perl library location can be
defined with the PERL5LIB environment variable. PPM will recognize this library
as an install area.
To create a new, user-writable install area:
Make a directory for the library. For example:
mkdir -p ~/perl/lib
Set or modify the
PERL5LIB environment variable using the
command specific to your shell (e.g.
set or
To make this change persistent, add the command to the appropriate profile file
for the shell. For example, in bash, add a line like the following to your
.bash_profile or .bashrc file:
PERL5LIB=~/perl/lib; export PERL5LIB
Note: On Mac OS X, user-writable install areas called "ActivePerl" are created for all users during installation (in /Users/<username>/Library/ActivePerl).
If you need to install packages on systems without direct access to repositories, you can use PPMX files. These are compressed tarballs containing the PPD file for the package and the blib tree to be installed. You can download PPMX files from http://ppm4.activestate.com/.
To use a PPMX file:
ppm install c:\tmp\Date-Calc-6.3.ppmx
Some modules have dependencies that may cause them to fail to install
if those packages are not available in a repository that PPM is
connected to. You can use the ppm
describe command to see
what dependencies the package has, but those packages may have their own
dependencies. The dependency chain has to be resolved manually by
starting with the lowest common prerequisite package.
Cryptographic Packages Unlike the United States, the Export Control List of Canada places no significant restriction on the export of cryptographic software; however, the Canadian Federal Government does require that companies, organizations or individuals that wish to distribute cryptographic software get a permit in order to do so. ActiveState does not currently have this permission, so you must currently access other repositories for the following modules:
Crypt-Blowfish, Crypt-Blowfish_PP Crypt-CAST5, Crypt-CAST5_PP Crypt-DH Crypt-DSA, Crypt-RSA Crypt-GPG Crypt-GOST, Crypt-GOST_PP Crypt-IDEA Crypt-OpenPGP, Crypt-PGP2, Crypt-PGP5, Crypt-PGPSimple Crypt-OpenSSL-DSA, Crypt-OpenSSL-RSA, Crypt-OpenSSL-SMIME Crypt-RC4, Crypt-RC5, Crypt-RC6 Crypt-RIPEMD160 Crypt-Rijndael, Crypt-Rijndael_PP Crypt-Serpent Crypt-Twofish, Crypt-Twofish2, TwoFish Crypt-SSLeay, Net_SSLeay
DBD::Oracle Oracle no longer provides the Oracle client libraries for free, so we can no longer provide DBD Oracle as a PPM/PPM3 module. The DBD-Oracle package for ActivePerl 5.6 is the last package compiled before the licensing changed that is still available on our site. If you wish to compile this module locally, the source may be obtained from www.cpan.org (see Using the CPAN shell). If you are using Windows, a workaround solution might be to use DBD-ODBC instead.
GD module The GD module currently is not available from the ActiveState ppm server because of the difficulty of incorporating it into our automated build process. The GD module is available from the University of Winnipeg's repository.
ActiveState does not maintain or own the vast majority of the modules available via PPM. We only pre-package those modules available from CPAN that can be built automatically. As a result, not all PPM packages in the repository are completely up-to-date or available for every platform.
If you require a package or package version that is not available in a PPM repository, you can install it using the CPAN shell.
Specify the AUTHOR and ABSTRACT parameters in the Makefile.PL. However you should only pass them to WriteMakefile if the version of the perl is greater than 5.005 - older perls do not have these parameters added and do not expect to see them. This is an example Makefile.PL:
use ExtUtils::MakeMaker;
# See lib/ExtUtils/MakeMaker.pm for details of how to influence
# the contents of the Makefile that is written.
'NAME' => 'Term::Control',
'VERSION_FROM' => 'Control.pm', # finds $VERSION
($] ge '5.005') ? (
'AUTHOR' => 'Johnny Doel (email@example.com)',
'ABSTRACT' => 'Control the IO for terminals',
) : (),
Then you make the archive with the commands
perl Makefile.PL
The resulting files are placed in the blib directory that is created when you run nmake. These files should be packed into an archive like this:
tar cvf package.tar blib
gzip --best package.tar
You now have an archive called package.tar.gz. Then you generate the PPD file by:
nmake ppd
You have to edit the resulting PPD file and add the location of the package archive into <CODEBASE HREF="" />. The location is relative to the PPD file.
You can get nmake from http://download.microsoft.com/download/vc15/Patch/1.52/W95/EN-US/Nmake15.exe.
If you use a proxy server or firewall, you may need to set the
http_proxy environment variable in order for PPM to
Set the
http_proxy variable with the hostname or IP
address of the proxy server:
If the proxy server requires a user name and password, include them in the following form:
If the proxy server uses a port other than 80, include the port number:
Windows XP
http_proxy with the appropriate proxy
information (see examples above).
Windows 200x
http_proxy, with
the appropriate proxy information (see examples above).
Windows NT
http_proxy with the appropriate proxy
information (see examples above).
Windows 95/98/ME
SET http_proxy=http://username:password@hostname:port
Mac OS X
http_proxy should be set in two places on OS
.bash_profile (/Users/<name>/.bash_profile):
http_proxy=http://username:password@hostname:port; export http_proxy
This setting applies to PPM when it is launched from or used at the command line.
<key>http_proxy</key> <string>http://username:password@hostname:port</string>
This setting applies to PPM when it is launched by clicking the PPM icon.
Linux, Solaris or HP-UX
Set the http_proxy environment variable using the command specific
to your shell (e.g.
set or
export). To make
this change persistent, add the command to the appropriate profile
file for the shell. For example, in
bash, add a line
like the following to your .bash_profile or .bashrc
http_proxy=http://username:password@hostname:port; export http_proxy
If you require a module that is not available via
or you require a more recent version, you can build the module from CPAN sources. The CPAN
shell is a command-line interface for fetching and building modules
directly from CPAN archives. To run it, enter the following command:
Building modules from source requires the following components:
nmake, which is available from:
dmake, which is available from
Mac OS X:
Linux and Solaris systems will normally have a compiler and a
make utility installed by default.


text:
Construction for the 600-foot addition to the school, which would replace decades-old trailers and a temporary mini-school at the rear of the building, could begin as early as this summer, making it the sixth new school or annex project in the community in the last four years.
Lorraine Grillo, president of the School Construction Authority, recalled being assigned to I.S. 125 when she first took the job nearly 20 years ago.
"When I visited, these transportables and that mini-building were old then," Grillo said at a press conference last week. "I'm so happy to replace those with a brand new, state-of-the-art addition for these children."
Over 200 students currently file into a series of old wooden and red metal trailers for class in the rear of the building, which is operating at 123 percent capacity.
Principal Judy Lynn Mittler said she was relieved, as she has been anticipating an expansion since she first became principal 15 years ago.
"These are supposedly temporary buildings," Mittler said. "You can't have a three-decade temporary."
One issue with the current trailer system, holding over 200 children every day and hosting eight classes, are the current fire codes that prohibit the school from locking outdoor gates.
"There was one gentleman walking his dog back and forth, and you can't have that," Mittler recalled. "This is still my school."
She added that while thankfully nothing has happened to her students over the years, she was worried about the durability and structure of the trailer system.
"God forbid, but they're very thin, and we have to be realistic, if somebody wants to shoot something, it doesn't matter, they're going to go right through these things," she said. "It's a strange world, and it's a dangerous world and I'm always concerned about the safety and security of my children."
State Senator Michael Gianaris recently toured the school with Community Board 2 chair Joseph Conley, and recalled watching classes full of kids run through the rain to get from the trailers to the main building.
"This is obviously a situation that is not acceptable as we try to give our kids a state-of-the-art learning environment," Gianaris said. "The fact that this school scored an 'A,' dealing with the facility overcrowding that they have is a testament to the teachers, the administrators and most of all the kids."


text:
Mplus Home
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Mplus Discussion
Multilevel Data/Complex Sample
Florian Fiedler
posted on Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 7:16 am
Deat MPlus-team,
what would you consider to be the "best" estimator for a 2-level-CFA with categorical observations?
I'd like to do model evaluation and comparisons as well. So could you please give me a short briefing, which of the three estimators available is the appropriate one concerning ordinal data, model comparison and of course speed?
Thank you very much.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 8:38 am
I would recommend MLR which is the default. Speed would be approximately the same because all available estimators are maximum likelihood. You would have to use the scaling factor which is provided in the output to do model comparisons. How to do this is described on the website.
Florian Fiedler
posted on Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 2:07 pm
Dear Linda,
I already thought about using this test but I can't find the scaling factor in the output :-(
I'm using, as I mentioned, categorical data containing missing values and an analysis specification like this:
In the output the tests of model fit section looks like this.
H0 Value -42189.823
Information Criteria
Number of Free Parameters 26
Akaike (AIC) 84431.645
Bayesian (BIC) 84612.051
Sample-Size Adjusted BIC 84529.428
After that the results are already reported, but there's no scaling factor at all. Perhaps I'm overlooking something?
Thanks for your advice.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 2:48 pm
Sorry. You don't get a chi-square for TWOLEVEL with maximum likelihood so you don't get a scaling factor. If you want to test two nested models, use - 2 times the loglikelihood difference.
Florian Fiedler
posted on Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 3:12 pm
Thank you for that information. So the test would be computing -2*(LL2-LL1) (X�) with df being the difference in the free parameters (like in Snijders and Bosker, 1999)?
Thank you for your patience.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, December 02, 2005 - 10:38 am
Florian Fiedler
posted on Friday, December 16, 2005 - 4:13 am
I've got several further question on the topic "estimator".
Since my ordinal 2-level-data is unbalanced (clustersize varies from 9 to 390), are the results I obtain using MLR reliable?
What happens to estimated parameters, when clustersize varies? (SEs will be larger on within level I'd expect.)
What are the limitations I have to report, when writing about a factor structure obtained in this way?
Thank you very much.
Florian Fiedler.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, December 16, 2005 - 6:21 am
MLR does not require cluster sizes to be the same. I cannot think of any limitations to report in this regard.
Marco Haferburg
posted on Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 12:53 am
Regarding the scaling factor of MLR: McDonald & Ho (2002)wrote that it´s useful to obtain a separate chi²-statistic for the structural part (path model) of a full SEM by subtracting the maximum likelihood chi²/df of the measurement model from the chi²/df of the full SEM. Is this also reasonable with MLR and type=complex? Many thanks for your thoughts!
McDonald, R.P. & Ho, M.-H.R. (2002). Principles and Practice in Reporting Structural Equation Analyses. Psychological Methods, 7(1), 64-82.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 9:06 am
Yes, this would also work for MLR and TYPE=COMPLEX;
Marco Haferburg
posted on Monday, July 10, 2006 - 6:54 am
OK, thanks a lot. Yet another question: I would like to estimate a LV-interaction in combination with TYPE=COMPLEX. Because of the XWITH-command, there is no chi� and no scaling correction factor, but the SE are different from the ones I obtain from a ML-analysis with TYPE=GENERAL. Does that mean that MLR still adjusts the SE for the degree of non-independence? In addition, does MLR adjusts also for non-normality in this case, since the analysis of the indicator-distribution seems to be part of the LMS-approach (Klein & Moosbrugger, 2000) for LV-interaction itself ?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, July 14, 2006 - 4:33 pm
If you have TYPE=COMPLEX;, MLR adjusts for non-independence and non-normality. With TYPE=GENERAL; it adjusts for non-normality. ML does not adjust for non-normality.
Marco Haferburg
posted on Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 3:11 am
OK, maybe I don't understand this correctly, but is there not a conflict between MLR (adjusting for nonindependence and non-normality) and XWITH (analyzing the non-normality and taking it explicitly into account)?
Thanks for your patience!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 7:43 am
It is an interesting question. Consider a case without type = complex (no complex survey data) - if non-normality is only due to the latent variable interaction handled by XWITH, I don't think the sandwich estimator used to compute SEs by MLR would necessarily do any better than ML. But MLR would probably not do worse. But if other parts of the model has non-normal outcomes, MLR might do better than ML. With type=complex there is no choice but to use MLR given the need for the sandwich estimator to take care of the non-independence.
Marco Haferburg
posted on Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 1:15 am
So you say, that MLR would probably do no harm in combination with XWITH. There is one more question: Does adding a LV-interaction via XWITH change the identification status of the model, since one more parameter has to be estimated? As far as I remember, the Klein & Moosbrugger (2000) - article doesn't mention this topic.
Many thanks for your insights, they are really invaluable.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 8:26 am
Yes, this could affect identification.
Marco Haferburg
posted on Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 10:59 am
Do I have to rely on the usual signs of underidentification (very high SE, negative variance estimates, etc.), or is there a way to check the identification status?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 3:55 pm
If the model is not identified, you should be notified by the program.
Bo Bernhard Nielsen
posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 10:05 am
I have a related concern as my reviewers question my identification status given the complexity of a model with interaction and some constructs with less than 3 items.
The model converges fine and does meet the "t-rule" suggested by Bollen (1989), however, how can I rule out empirical under-identification? I found additional rules for establishing model identification for models with less than three indicators (O'Brien, 1994), however, it does not discuss interaction models specifically.
So the question is: Does a model with interaction change the identification requirements in Mplus?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 10:29 am
This has not been studied as far as I know. With latent variable interactions, not only is the regular information from means, variances, and covariances used, but also higher-order moments. My conjecture is that (1) a model that is identified without the interaction is typically identified also with the interaction, whereas (2) a model that is not identified without the interaction cannot be identified when adding the interaction. For (1), there might still be cases of non-identification, but hopefully the Mplus non-identification check using the singularity check of the sums of squares and cross-products of first-order derivatives (the "MLF check") will flag such a model as non-identified. A good empirical way to study identifiability is to do a Monte Carlo study and see if parameter estimates can be recovered well and if SEs are estimated well. For more information on this topic, you may want to contact Andreas Klein.
Bo Bernhard Nielsen
posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 1:13 pm
Thank you so much - this is very useful. I am, however, running a single-level model with one interaction and thus it seems that the MLF estimator is not applicable here or?
I did run a Monte Carlo study and it seems that the results are robust.
I guess my main question now is: Is there another command/test I can use for a single-level study with interaction to test for model identification. The model is identified without the interaction and I would like to be able to say that Mplus did not flag the model as non-identified.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, September 01, 2008 - 2:09 pm
The MLF check is done irrespective of which ML estimator you use: ML, MLR, MLF.
posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 10:30 am
Hello. I am trying to perform a series of CFA models with ordinal indicators. The data are nested (e.g., students within schools). The sample size is around 600.
Based on the articles I've read and from what I've seen on the Mplus discussion board, I was wondering if it is appropriate to use TYPE=COMPLEX in conjunction with the MLR Estimator, since Dr. Muthen stated earlier that MLR adjusts for non-independence. Thus, if you have TYPE=COMPLEX, MLR adjusts for non-independence and non-normality.
Here is a copy of my Mplus code. Thanks loads.
DATA: FILE IS G:\FactorAnalysis\ascii.dat;
VARIABLE: NAMES school var1 var2 var3 var4;
USEVARIABLES= school var1 var2 var3 var4;
CATEGORICAL=var1 var2 var3 var4;
CLUSTER = school;
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 11:39 am
A factor model is not an aggregatable model so I would use TYPE=TWOLEVEL to account for clustering not TYPE=COMPLEX.
posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 12:03 pm
To make sure that I understand, you are saying that for nested data with latent continuous variables, one must use a multilevel model where the within and between-level variance are disaggregated. In other words a sandwich estimator cannot be used in this case, and only a multilevel model or random effects model using the command "TYPE=TWOLEVEL" can be used (as opposed to looking at an aggregated model using TYPE=COMPLEX). Is this correct?
Thanks. You've been incredibly helpful.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 - 4:56 pm
The topic of aggregatability was discussed for factor analysis in Muthen & Satorra (1995), Sociological Methodology.
posted on Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 8:25 am
I'm sorry to keep at this, but I am still a bit confused. Muthen and Satorra (1995) state that the 2 methods for dealing with SEM/CFA models with complex sample data are: 1.) aggregated analysis and 2.) disaggregated analysis (i.e., multilevel cfa/sem).
Furthermore, Ch. 9 of the user's guide states that Muthen and Satorra (1995) discuss these 2 approaches, where the first aggregated approach corresponds to using the TYPE=COMPLEX command. The second approach (disaggregated approach) is said to use the TYPE=TWOLEVEL.
Since my aim is to correct the standard errors for my categorical CFA models and not to look at models for both the student and the school-levels of my data, I do not understand why the TYPE=COMPLEX command was not recommended earlier. Perhaps I am not understanding everything, so could you please clarify this for me?
Also, if it is allright to use the TYPE=COMPLEX command, then I was also wondering whether it was advisable to use MLR estimation for a categorical CFA model in conjunction with the TYPE=COMPLEX command. I believe the default estimation for this is WLS.
Thank you.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 9:22 am
Using Type=Complex is better than ignoring the nested nature of the data, giving better SEs. It is, however, taking an "aggregated" approach to the modeling which implies that the parameter estimates may be a bit distorted relative to those of a "disaggregated" approach using Type=Twolevel. This is discussed a bit in Muthen-Satorra (1995) on pages 290-291. The discussion says that if a twolevel model with equal factor loading matrices on the within and between levels hold, then the aggregated approach is correct. But if within and between have different numbers of factors - which is often the case - the aggregated approach is distorted to some degree. Say that a simple structure 2-factor model holds for Sigma_W and a 1-factor model holds for Sigma_B. This does not result in a simple structure factor model for Sigma_T, Sigma_T being the covariance matrix in the aggregated approach. Often, however, the distortion is not large. And again, the disaggregated approach of Type=Complex is better than ignoring the nesting.
Kristine Molina
posted on Wednesday, October 21, 2009 - 11:40 am
I currently ran a very simple path analysis model using complex survey data, just to test it out in Mplus, as I will then have a much more complicated model.
I have covariates (linked to both of my predictor variables), 2 predictor variables, one mediating variable, and 1 outcome variable. My predictor, mediating, and outcome variables are all continuous variables.
My model ran well, and actually had a good fit. However, I wasn't sure what the difference between specificying Estimator to be "MLR" and not specifying it was? Given that my next step will be to test this same model as a multiple group path analysis model (males and females), I'm wondering how specifying particular estimators will work in terms of the chi-square test difference test.
Any suggestions would be helpful!
Thank you,
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, October 21, 2009 - 2:37 pm
Each analysis situation has a default estimator. If your specify ESTIMATOR=MLR when it is not the default, it overrides the default.
For ML and WLS, regular difference testing is used. For estimators ending in MV, the DIFFTEST option is used. For estimators ending in M and for MLR, a scaling correction factor is used in difference testing. This is described on the website.
Kristine Molina
posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 12:22 pm
Hi Linda,
Thank you so much for your response. I guess I'm confused then as to whether I should leave out the "ESTIMATOR=MLR" after:
I'm guessing that because I am running multiple group analysis with complex data, that I would have to use "MLR"?
Would I still be able to do the regular difference testing using the default estimator (if I leave MLR out) or is MLR the default for this type of analysis?
From what I read in the User's Guide, it says "for all types of outcomes, robust estimation of standard errors and robust chi-square tests of model fit are provided. These procedures take into account non-normality of outcomes and non-independence of observations due to clustering sampling."
So I'm just not sure what the default estimator for Type=Complex and whether I have to specify a specific one when using complex samples with multiple-group analysis.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 3:46 pm
You never need to specify an estimator. Just leave the option out and the default will be used. The defaults are shown on pages 482-483. You don't give enough information for me to know what the default would be for you.
Anuradha Ramesh
posted on Friday, January 08, 2010 - 3:41 pm
Dear M-plus team,
I am trying to compare two groups on measurement invariance. I am using a MLM estimator as some of my variables are not normally distributed. But with the statistics of the unconstrained base model Chi-sq =0 and df=0 I am not sure how to apply the scaling factor to the data.
The data for my constrained model are as follows:
Chi-Square = 11.82
Df = 6
p-value = .07
Scaling correction = 1.05
Your help would be greatly appreciated.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Saturday, January 09, 2010 - 9:00 am
Please send the two outputs showing the constrained and unconstrained models and your license number to
Hans Leto
posted on Friday, April 13, 2012 - 9:45 am
Dr. Muthen
I am performing different interaction effects. My data has not multivariant normality, so I am using a robust estimator (MLM).
When I test the model, Mplus gives me the following error "THE MODEL ESTIMATION DID NOT TERMINATE NORMALLY DUE TO A NON-POSITIVE DEFINITE FISHER INFORMATION MATRIX. CHANGE YOUR MODEL AND/OR STARTING VALUES.THE MODEL ESTIMATION HAS REACHED A SADDLE POINT OR A POINT WHERE THE OBERVED AND THE EXPECTED INFORMATION MATRICES DO NOT MATCH..." suggesting that the results are presented for the MLF estimator.
I used "estimator=MLF" in the model command and I had nice results without error. My question is, Can I use the MLF estimator in this analyisis? (non-normality).
Thank you in advance.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Saturday, April 14, 2012 - 9:11 am
MLF is not robust to non-normality. You can try MLR.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Monday, November 26, 2012 - 11:32 am
Dr. Muthen,
My research team and I are considering using MLR vs. WLSMV. After reading some articles and going through your discussion board posts, we think that WLSMV would be sufficiently robust, but we are having a hard time understanding why and if there are any citations we can use.
Our SEM analysis is multi-level with both categorical and continuous variables and data is assumed MAR and nonnormal. Our DV is a latent construct made up of 9 variables that are scaled on 1-3 based on frequency (not at all, occasionally, frequently).
Thank you ahead of time for your guidance.
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 10:13 am
WLSMV requires MCAR. I would use MLR.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 10:38 am
Thank you for your quick reply. Since it's difficult to confirm MCAR, what would be the inherent consequences to our output if we use WLSMV vs. MLR?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 11:01 am
If MCAR does not hold, but MAR does, WLSMV estimates will be biased and MLR estimates ok. If it is computationally not too heavy (not too many latent variables), MLR is better than WLSMV due to using full information. Another alternative is Bayes, which is as good as MLR, but can handle more latent variables.
Just to be sure since you use the word "robust", when you say MLR I hope that you mean treating the variables as categorical just like WLSMV does. Sometimes people say ML (or MLR) when they really mean treating the variables as continuous.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 11:22 am
Our DV is being treated as a continuous latent variables. Actually all of our latent variables (four total) are treated as continous. Then we have both continuous and categorical observed variables (about 20 total), and the categorical variables are identified as such in our syntax.
When you say that WLSMV is "better" would it be possible to still justify its use over MLR?
One hesitation that we have with MLR is how long it's taking to run given our large sample, and also we understand that using MLR precludes us from deriving the indirect effect estimates.
Thank you!
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 12:10 pm
Also, we did try running MLR, but it did not provide fit indices.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, November 28, 2012 - 11:40 am
WLSMV may give a good approximation to MLR/Bayes if there isn't that much missing data.
Note the MLR can give indirect effects when they are defined, say as a*b, in MODEL CONSTRAINT.
You can compare WLSMV and MLR (and Bayes) estimates on a key model to make sure your analysis is good.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Wednesday, November 28, 2012 - 8:51 pm
Thank you. Last question: Is there a citation we can reference in regards to WLSMV being a good approximation if there isn't too much missing data?
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 8:29 am
I don't recall that having been studied. It is just my conjecture.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 10:15 am
My colleague tried rerunning using MLR but wasn't given fit indices beyond chi square. Is there an additional command to get the RMSEA?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 2:51 pm
It sounds like you are getting chi-square values for the frequency table for your categorical outcomes. This is not the chi-square that compares the unrestricted H1 and the H0 models. This chi-square and related fit statistics are not available unless means, variances, and covariances are sufficient statistics for model estimation which is not the case with maximum likelihood and categorical outcomes.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 6:32 pm
When it was run using MLR it was done so as a single-level model. Can you get fit indices in this situation?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 8:07 pm
Not with categorical outcomes and maximum likelihood. No absolute fit measures are available.
Marcia Fuentes
posted on Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 9:34 pm
How does one assess if the data fits the model run without fit indices when using MLR?
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Friday, November 30, 2012 - 6:35 am
When absolute fit indices are not developed, nested models can be tested using - 2 times the loglikelihood difference which is distributed as chi-square.
Kerstin Mertz
posted on Sunday, April 24, 2016 - 1:47 pm
Dear Sir or Madam,
are there any recommendations concerning the use of FIML / ML versus the default MLR as estimator in a "two-level random" analysis?
I used ML as estimator as I gathered from the literature that ML is the preferred practice in my field and the required estimation method for models with random slopes and for comparing models with log likelihood difference tests. It also seems to be assumed that ML tolerates slight violations of the non-normality requirement.
But how performs ML compared to MLR? Did I make a grave mistake in choosing ML over MLR?
My sample size is 165 on L2 and about 700 on L1; the cluster size varies between 3-5. All my variables are continuous. The independent variables all seem to be approximately normal distributed or only very slightly skewed but some of the independent variables are clearly not normally distributed.
I would be very grateful for your expert advice!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Sunday, April 24, 2016 - 5:40 pm
Try MLR and see how different the SEs are. If not very different, stay with ML.
Kerstin Mertz
posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 2:31 am
Dear Prof. Muth�n,
thank you very much for your advice!
Sadly, the SEs seem to differ quite a bit so that some formerly significant effects are no longer significant. Am I correct in concluding that I cannot trust the results obtained with FIML as estimator and thus have to rerun the analyses with MLR?
And it is also possible to do the log likelihood tests with MLR estimates - I just have to use the correction factor as it is explained on your homepage, right?
(I am sorry if these are stupid questions; I just want to make sure I do nothing wrong again.)
Thanks a lot in advance!
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 5:57 am
Yes to both questions. You can also do bootstrapping to see what the non-symmetric confidence intervals say about significance.
Kerstin Mertz
posted on Tuesday, April 26, 2016 - 7:45 am
Dear Prof. Muth�n,
thank you so much for your quick and helpful answer!
Have a nice day!
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Hope College will host hundreds of scholars during the 2013 annual meeting of the Michigan Academy of Science, Arts, and Letters on Friday, March 22.
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Welcome jaychel! You did it right, and look forward to having you here for the season!! The house looks cool, and the cast looks unique, won't know much about them till we see them on TV! I can't wait!!
WElcome Jaychel. Glad to have you here. Thanks for joining.
Looks like a prison....
Quote from: georgiapeach on July 03, 2009, 04:48:56 PMLooks like a prison....Yeah, it's like the punishment room...whichever clique team ends up on slop sleeps in that room for a week on the floor, and it's freezing cold in there and the lights never goes off. Should be interesting to hear the losers whine for a whole week about that room.
i am not happy with this room. jmo i think some of the roomies r punisment enough.. plus i don't like to see ppl suffer like that, slop was bad enough now this???
I'm thinkiing whats to prevent them from sleeping in the bathroom or on the upstairs couch or even outside for that matter. I know BB won't let them sleep in the living room, but people slept in the spa room during the day last season. Not looking forward to this "treatment" I agree with Ugot, BB is trying to copy Solitary.Ugh! is all we are gonna hear!
Love the house! This is my first post to any forum ever!!! Hope I'm doing this right. lol I'd like to get involved more with RFF! So excited about the new season..... YaY BB11.
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Borosil glassware is elegant yet extremely durable. It can withstand temperature changes from freezing to boiling without breaking. It can go from the fridge or freezer directly to the oven or microwave…and back again. Also break resistant so its perfect to use indoors or out.
Completely safe in the dishwasher. The non-porous glass means that it will not cloud up after repeated washings. Nor will it stain or absorb odors.
Borosil glassware has been manufactured at the highest standards for over 50 years. Founded in collaboration with Corning Glass Works in 1962, Borosil was a pioneer in the glassware industry. The current design was part of the original collection and is still relevant today.
Thin walled, lightweight and elegant in design, Borosil is made of 100% borosilicate glass, which makes it extremely durable and break resistant. It can be used at all temperatures ranging from boiling to freezing and it is microwave and dishwasher safe.
Borosil's timeless design makes it perfect for any tabletop situation, from picnic to dinner party.
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text: There are all kinds of terrain for all types of hunters from timber pastures to crop areas and there is a small camping area and a 55-acre lake that provides excellent fishing to our members. Our lake is steep sided so you will find that there is no moss on our lake during the year. This is obviously to your advantage. We have done quite a lot of work on this lake since my arrival in 1989. We netted approximately 15000 pounds of carp out of the lake. We also have a small, self-contained, camping area for our members that they can use during the fishing season. We allow boats with trolling motors. Our concrete unloading ramp makes getting into and out of the lake no problem. We are a membership club. Special one and two day hunts are available for non-members.


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3979 Puget Drive | Vancouver House/Single Family
Vancouver, BC CA V6L 2V3
Perched high atop prominent Puget Drive, w/ sweeping views of the water and mountains, rests this luxurious home designed by renowned architect Ted Murray. You will be struck by the outstanding blend of unique design elements & ever-present functionality as you walk through this one-of-a-kind home. Key highlights include an artistic glass-enclosed open-tread staircase, climate controlled wine wall display, & sliding glass windows to the sit-up outdoor bar. The gourmet kitchen makes indoor entertaining a breeze while you can also take the party outside to the oversized roof top deck featuring hot tub, outdoor kitchen and BBQ. This 4 bed 4.5 bath home is situated on an oversized 38'x122.2′ lot that also has a laneway home. Smart home with Control 4 automation. Built in 2017 – No GST.


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Foxconn has taken further action to ensure the safety of its workers after a blast killed three employees and injured many more last week.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the company, which is known officially as Hon Hai Precision Industry, has closed all of its workshops that handle polishing for electronic parts and products pending further inspections.
The plant where the blast occurred, in Chengdu, China, is relatively new and is one of several that the company owns across the country.
The Chengdu plant reportedly manufactured the iPad and iPad 2, though neither Apple or Foxconn have confirmed this. There are conflicting reports as to whether iPad supplies will be affected by the blast and subsequent stoppage.
Foxconn also makes parts for HP and Motorola, and a recent report criticising working conditions in the Chengdu plant has come to light since the explosion.
The report, from the watchdog group Students & Scholars Against Corporate Misbehavior (SACOM) said: "In the milling machine department in Chengdu, some workers state they always breathe in the aluminum dust. Workers in the polishing department also complain that the department is full of aluminum dust. Some workers comment that ventilation on shop floor should be improved."
Another Foxconn plant in Shenzhen came under scrutiny last year after a spate of worker suicides.


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You potency also memory hearing close by the People V. Turner sexual congress beating case. To keep off influence the growing line of carrying-off sip in America, xHamster banned all videos involving spoliate , including those which featured the fucking of dull-witted partners. Their communal and form involvements don't conceal there, though. throw of my bizarre favorite divisive statements that they made came in reappear to the 2016 Autonomous Nationalist Council email split , when they offered Debbie Wasserman Shultz $50,000 to outstanding in a porno assorted a Bernie Sanders lookalike. You remember , since she already fucked him near of the election. Ah, if that isn't fucking gold, I don't be what is. The Locality Itself line , xHamster has made exceptionally a big-shot account themselves in their region compendious days of heyday as a xxx societal media/porn tube. But does the connect itself persist in up to all the hype? Patently , to 's c a look. 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At the bung of the recto into uncover 50 or so suggested categories to arbitrator from (" associate " " lawlessness inconsiderable " "caught thievery ," and " bungler compilation" to dominance a bevy ). Lots of In the buff Hardcore Paragraph These tags opportunity kickback you a lyrical manifest dignify of what to of from Video One. Another outrun to on e an awareness of the depict of breathe life into they is to a look at what sites they intermediation to: xHamster, Beeg, TXXX, and DTVideo are a few. What this should trumpet you is that a seniority of the crux when be homemade, or at least amateur-inspired. You puissance ticket a strengthen of it Gonzo. I gape to utilize the sitting "raw." We're talking productions akin to Casting Designate Humbug Run-of-the-mill and Asian Avenue Meat. 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Which, usurped the superabundant of videos that as on each , you'd unchanged to do a of a sweepstakes of scrolling to all the 's hands on them. I do tableau that aspect. terra , space you do missing to them, there are shit load. No ads entrance videos, though. You potency decamp into the regular pop-up, fashion lolly ad when you click on a video, but at least it's not every fucking clarify you click on something like it is on a apportionment of other sites. I would foot like no , but if I seize to search assistance them, then I guestimate these ads are turn excusable. As the enlargement of the on-page ads are inescapable other tube sites (which is damned manly if you prefer to devaluate the fuck away from the incest bullshit), and the simple recognize pop-ups were exuberance pages that were not to down in chartered mode. I'm not established faithfully what this means, but if I can't smudge the ad, I'm happy. A abridgment Wake up to to Power dress You with Secretly to Fappin' To be valid I am in reality turned below on the potentially proscribed epitomize to be on Video-One. It's a damage too, because Video-One has so much developing to be a tremendous porn instal with a shit ton of comfort to pick from. Ordered if they removed all of their potentially illicit videos, they would gentle put up a impassioned archive to explore. All of us porn addicts necessity to on the hop together and lone stomp this unstinting of shit individualize of our community. down shit that looks sketchy. If you can. Video-One, unfortunately, doesn't rig out that feature. Footprint up and pick on the fucking responsibilities that a with having a porn domicile or don't authorize one. It's as unconstrained as that. All applaud the almighty Porn Ponder ! The gaekwar of baroda of porn sites! Founded in 2007 alongside Matt Keezer, who sold it to Fabian Thylmann in 2010, because the fucker indubitably cared more distressful the than the website itself! (Would you of of the Manwin subdivide which is mould known as 'Mindgeek'. Other giants in the network encompass sites like YouPorn and Redtube. Although Porn Substance is currently not the most inexpert porn instal in the diversified it does send down more taboo point than any other website brand} in the soppy comedy 'Don John' of 2013? It's nearing a fap pot-head that can't wellnigh masturbating on porn sites, for detail notwithstanding he has a enlivened everyday life. I miracle why the fuck they asked that closet faggot Joseph Gordon-Levitt on your cumshot with the stars in the video. It can be so annoying that the as {well and the video is already done! I well-paying if a video got you misled or not. Away registering an account, which is 100 at via the go you shady , you can also flagging the video so that a can it. Hey, we don't up your lanate ass with Bubba in detain ! From unpolluted looking teens showing their in the buff bodies to spazzed humongous split whores being choked, on and having every impression violated encircling a hockey line-up , this surroundings has it all. Do you like pornstars like Mia Khalifa, Chyna and after Daniels? No stalemate , click on the pornstars' menu Sheerest how she's ingenious to supplied on Porn Marrow ( aeon misspelled as 'pron substance ", "pirnhub", "prnhub", "poenhub", "hubporn", "phub" or "potnhub"), then you cant reach reckless anywhere! In terrain the ads suffer from you, you payment to download or index card in behalf of a ego 's birthday! Visualize the look on his the nettle , when he opens your present. His eyes desire be shattered with tears, and you can be unflinching that this is hermitical propose he won't be selling on eBay again afterward! You can to upload your homemade making somebody and be in the cards paid up to $5,000 up using their run-of-the-mill payment program and conversion the next untrained porn star. Don't you requisite to be the next titanic means in pornography?
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NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The temperature was in the upper 30s and the wind chill was lower. Snowflakes were seen on a couple of occasions. The wind was cutting at times.
Not a great night for softball. But despite weather conditions, that were not conducive to hitting, the Lipscomb Lady Bisons flexed their muscles. In a doubleheader sweep of Tennessee Tech from the Ohio Valley Conference the Lady Bisons pounded five home runs and four doubles.
The Lady Bisons won had a 6-5 in game one. They took game two 6-3. The Lady Bisons are 13-13 overall. Tennessee Tech is 11-11.
"Any time we can get that big hit we are not going to turn it down," LU coach Kristin Ryman said. "The hitting really came on strong from top to bottom. Overall, we are playing pretty well."
In game one, Haley Elliott and Kristen Sturdivant each slammed two-run homers. Gracey Aguirre added a pair of doubles.
Elliott would strike for another home run in game two. Also clearing the fence were Bridgette Begle and Bree Thurman. All three home runs were solo shots.
Aguirre hit her third double of the night and Paige Neely also added a double. Heather Montgomery was the RBI leader in game two with a single.
"It was good to see that out of multiple people," Ryman said. "We have seen it from Haley and Kristen. We got that production out of them again, but we also got big hits out of Bridgette and Bree. Gracey continued her streak. Paige Neely hit one off of the wall.
"We see that in practice a lot. But to see them put that together in a game is exciting for us and is a confidence builder for them."
LU right-hander Tanner Sanders went the distance in game one to lift her record to 8-4. She scattered eight hits and gave up three earned runs. She walked four and struck out four.
"Tanner wasn't her best, but she kept gutting it out," Ryman said. "She kept us in it."
Right-hander Heather Parker started game two for Lipscomb and pitched three innings. She picked up her fourth win in 11 decisions. She gave up eight hits and three runs, all earned. She struck out three and walked one.
Left-hander Ashley Anderson picked up the save with four shutout innings. She allowed five hits, struck out four and did not walk a batter.
"Ashley does so well working in the bullpen during practice," Ryman said. "We have been trying to get her to transfer that into game settings with live hitters. She keeps working at it. I am proud of what she did in game two.
"She moved the ball well. She was hitting her spots. She had some strikeouts and some ground outs. When she is getting those she is at her best. She kept her composure and found ways to get outs when we needed them."
Tennessee Tech also showed some power with seven doubles and one home run.
"Tanner and Heather gave up too many hard hit balls," Ryman said. "They are going to give up one occasionally, but not consistently that many. When you see that you know something is off.
"I'm not worried about them. We will go back to work with them Thursday. They will get back on track."
The Lady Bisons are back in action at Draper Diamond Saturday and Sunday when North Florida visits for a three-game Atlantic Sun series. Saturday's doubleheader begins at 2 p.m. Sunday's single game starts at 1 p.m.


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On a river island we found a well-camouflaged Ladder-tailed Nightjar (participant Ian Lewis).
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