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- The Diamondbacks and Rangers continue to struggle for television viewership
- Game 1 of the World Series was the least-watched opener with 9.17 million views
- DailyMail.com provides all the latest international sports news
The ratings for the 2023 World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers continue to go down with each passing game.
The record for the least-watched World Series game was shattered by Saturday's Game 2, then Game 3 on Monday.
Sports TV Ratings reported an average of 8.13 million viewers for Fox's Game 3 coverage, making Game 2 a short-term record-holder with 8.15 million.
The series opener also ranked as the least-watched World Series Game 1 with 9.17 million viewers according to Sports Media Watch. The feat was previously held by the the 2020 'Bubble' World Series between the LA Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays at the height of the pandemic, which garnered 9.35 million viewers.
Games 2 and 3 failed to generate a bigger audience than Game 3 of the Bubble series which had 8.16 million views.
The Texas Rangers currently lead the Arizona Diamondbacks, 2-1, in the 2023 World Series
The Diamondbacks and Rangers beat the Phillies and Astros, respectively, in the postseason
Two key factors to the lack of attention are the small market teams and absence of star power.
The Diamond Backs defeated the Phillies in the NLCS while the Rangers derailed the Astros in the ALCS. In doing so, two teams who had subpar regular seasons prevented a World Series that would have featured the likes of Bryce Harper and Jose Altuve.
The World Series also finds itself competing with the NFL, NBA and college football for viewership. Game 3 had it worst with the NBA, NFL and NHL all having games during prime time.
Fortunately, Games 4 and 5 – and possibly Games 6 and 7 – will take place while the NFL is off.
The Diamondbacks levelled the series at 1-1 on Saturday after losing Game 1 in 11 innings. However, the Rangers regained the lead in Game 3, winning 3-1.
sports lottery
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The "Odds" or "Markets" for all events determine the amount of early settlement. If the amount changes or the opening of the market is suspended during early settlement, it may lead to the failure of early settlement. If the event has not yet concluded, the early settlement function may appear again.
If the system successfully accepts the early settlement of the bet, the member will not be able to cancel the transaction that has been settled in advance. The amount of bets that are successfully settled in advance will be directly returned to the member's account, and the bet will no longer be affected by the final settlement and official results of the betting event.
If the bet that was successfully settled in advance is canceled for some reason (such as VAR assistance-goals are not counted), the amount of the bet that was settled in advance will be deducted from the member's account. If the event has not ended yet, the early settlement function may appear again, otherwise the betting will be based on the event or official final result. The company reserves the right of final interpretation, please pay attention!
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Sports Event Casino Handicap Description
PK | 0 | It means not giving in to each other, and winning 1 point wins all. |
0-50 | 0/0.5 | Indicates that when the handicap team is tied with the transferee team, the team betting on the handicap loses 50%. |
0 loss | 0.5 | Indicates that when the handicap team is tied with the transferee team, the team betting on the handicap loses. |
1+50 | 0.5/1 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap wins 50% and wins all 2 points. |
1 level | 1 | Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the two teams will tie and win by 2 points. |
1-50 | 1/1.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 2 points. |
1 loss | 1.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 1 point, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins by 2 points. |
2+50 | 1.5/2 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap wins 50% and wins all 3 points. |
2 flat | 2 | Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the two teams will tie and win all 3 points. |
2 losses | 2/2.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 3 points. |
3+50 | 2.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 2 points, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins all 3 points. |
3 losses | 2.5/3 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap wins 50%, and all 4 points win. |
3 levels | 3 | Indicates that when the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the two teams will tie and win all 4 points. |
3-50 | 3/3.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap loses 50% and wins all 4 points. |
3 losses | 3.5 | When the handicap team wins the handicap team by 3 points, the team betting on the handicap loses all and wins all 4 points. |
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Online gaming refers to games played with other players over the Internet. Common online games include role-playing games, strategy games, shooting games, racing games, board games, etc. Players can fight or compete with other players or computers via the Internet, and can communicate and cooperate with other players.
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Convenience: The game can be played anytime and anywhere, no specific equipment or venue is required.
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Social: You can communicate and cooperate with other players to increase your social network.
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Entertainment: Can bring entertainment and relaxation to players.
However, online gambling also has some risks and problems, such as addiction, time consumption, money transactions involved, and so on. Therefore, you need to pay attention to self-protection when playing online games, and abide by the rules of the game and relevant laws and regulations.
Here are some common sports betting plays:
Winning the Game: This is one of the most common sports betting variants where players bet on which team or athlete will win the game before it starts.
Handicap Market: This bet is based on point difference, and punters must predict whether the winner's point difference is greater or less than a preset point difference.
Over/Under: This bet is based on the total points scored in the game, and punters must predict whether the total points in the game will be greater or less than the preset score.
Specific Event Markets: This type of betting usually involves specific events in the game, such as first score, player scoring, free throw percentage, etc., and the punter must predict whether the specific event will occur or be achieved.
Online betting: This type of play refers to betting while the game is in progress, and the punter can change the bet at any time and make a decision based on the real-time situation of the game.
It should be noted that sports betting is a high-risk gambling activity that needs to be treated with caution. It is recommended to gamble on legal betting websites and bet according to your own financial ability.
A global casino site is usually an online platform that offers a variety of entertainment games, including gambling, lottery, video games, and sports betting. These sites are usually registered and licensed to comply with local gaming regulations and legal requirements.
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Conventional wisdom has Ohio being vulnerable to a Democratic rollback in 2012 after a GOP sweep in 2010. Approval ratings for Governor John Kasich have been low after his reforms of public-employee unions in a state where Big Labor is thought to have a wide reach. However, a new Quinnipiac poll on a proposed right-to-work reform may indicate that their power is not as broad as first thought:
Despite the overwhelming victory by organized labor and its allies in repealing SB 5 in this past election, by 54 – 40 percent Ohio voters favor the idea of passing a "right-to-work" law that would ban workers from being required to join a union as a condition of employment, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. …
Gov. John Kasich's job approval numbers remain poor, although they are getting better, as 40 percent of registered voters approve of how he is doing his job compared to 46 percent who disapprove of how he is running the Buckeye State. Those numbers are little changed from the negative 39 – 48 percent job approval rating in a January 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, but are better than the negative 36 – 52 percent approval rating in an October 25, 2011, poll.
"Given the assumption that the SB 5 referendum was a demonstration of union strength in Ohio, the 54 – 40 percent support for making Ohio a 'right-to-work' state does make one take notice," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In the SB 5 referendum independent voters, who are generally the key to Ohio elections, voted with the pro-union folks to repeal the law many viewed as an effort to handicap unions. The data indicates that many of those same independents who stood up for unions this past November on SB 5 are standing up to unions by backing 'right-to-work' legislation."
The key fight will be with independents, and so far they seem to be swinging against the unions. Independents support an RTW bill by 16 points, even wider than the general public, at 55/39. Democrats oppose it but not as strongly as one might imagine at 65/32.
With all other demographics, RTW has a broad base of support. Majorities of both men and women and all age groups and levels of education support right-to-work legislation. The only categories that would oppose such a bill would be Democrats, black voters on a narrow 42/46 that is a virtual tie, and union households at 32/65.
If Kasich wanted to pursue union reform, he'd find himself in much better political position by pushing an RTW bill through the legislature this year. Its broad popularity would put unions on the defensive to justify forced membership, closed shops, and mandatory dues payments. That might erase some of the hard feelings lingering after the far-less-popular SB5 reforms that went down to defeat, and it would arguably have better results.
On the upcoming elections, the clouds may be parting at least a little for Republicans. The satisfaction level of Ohio voters has begun rising at least incrementally, even if it's still underwater at 43/56. Last summer, the rating was 34/64, and in the fall it had actually declined to 29/71.

subset: commoncrawl


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Stormwater Management
Post-Construction Stormwater Ordinance & Policy
Post-Construction Stormwater Ordinance & Redevelopment Policy
Post-Construction Stormwater Ordinance
On April 22, 2014, the City Council approved Coralville's post-construction stormwater ordinance.
View Post-Construction Stormwater Ordinance
Purpose of the Ordinance
Protect the health and water quality of the Iowa River, Clear Creek, Muddy Creek, and all tributaries, lakes, and wetlands within these watersheds.
Address how stormwater is managed on new development and re-development within the community.
Reduce the degradation of our water resources that can result from pollutant and sediment runoff.
Minimize the damaging effects of localized flooding on residents, businesses, and property owners.
Measuring Progress
Within the first 18 months since the ordinance was implemented, 30 new developments or re-developments in Coralville implemented stormwater quality practices. These practices include bio-retention cells and swales, soil quality restoration, tree and infiltration trenches, and porous paving systems.
Post-Construction Stormwater Policy for Redevelopments
Over the next 20 years, an estimated 50% of development in Coralville will be redevelopment of existing properties. On July 12, 2016, the City Council approved Coralville's post-construction stormwater policy for redevelopment projects.
View Post-Construction Stormwater Redevelopment Policy
Purpose of the Policy
Allow the City to manage stormwater more sustainably than decades before, with benefits that reach far into the future.
Provide minimum post-construction stormwater requirements for redevelopment projects.
Improve stormwater runoff and drainage patterns on existing properties while encouraging redevelopment and urban renewal.
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Show All Answers
The entrance to Bare Cove Park Drive is off of Fort Hill Street, directly across the street from the West Hingham train station and next to Thomas Auto Body (15 Fort Hill Street). As you follow Bare Cove Park Drive, take your first right and bear left up the hill.
Vehicle Coverage Selection Page/Declaration Page indicating car is garaged in Hingham (Required only if registration does not indicate Hingham address)
All Hingham Residents with a valid Transfer Station Sticker will be charged for Appliances, Electronics, and C&D/Bulky Waste (Including Furniture) according to the updated rates approved by the Select Board on March 16, 2021, shown below:
Hingham residents will be allowed up to 3 cubic yards of bulky, construction, and demolition waste per week with a fee.
Note: Rubble is not accepted.
There is a limit of one (1) Residential Permit per household per year at no charge. There is a $25 charge for any additional Residential Permits per Hingham address. A $25 charge will also be applied for any replacement sticker.
You can apply for a sticker online here: https://www.hingham-ma.gov/334/Transfer-Station-Stickers (allow up to a week for processing) or in person at the Department of Public Works located 25 Bare Cove Park Drive. In person hours are Monday-Wednesday 8:00a to 4:00p and Thursday-Friday 7:30a - 4:00pm.
Yes, Hingham residents is $50 per calendar year, non-Hingham residents is $150 per calendar year.
Any vehicle disposing bulky, construction and/or demolition waste* must be weighed and pay the per ton fee at the scale - this includes all residential and commercial permits. Vehicles must also adhere to the cubic yard limit as indicated below:
*generated from Hingham only.
Bulky, Construction, and Demolition Waste (C&D) Disposal
All Hingham Residents and Commercial sticker holders will be charged for Appliances, Electronics, and C&D/Bulky Waste (including furniture) according to the updated rates approved by the Board of Selectmen on March 16, 2021, shown below:
All Commercial Vehicles will be charged according to the updated rates approved by the Board of Selectmen on March 16, 2021, shown below:
The bulky, construction, and demolition area is open when the Transfer Station is open. Hours are Thursdays through Sunday 7:00am to 4:00pm.
All CVP holders may dispose of up to 5 cubic yards of bulky, construction, and demolition waste per visit to the Transfer Station. Any loads with more than 5 cubic yards will be rejected. Additionally, any vehicle carrying loads will not be allowed trailers.
All Commercial Vehicle Permits (CVP) holders will pay a per ton fee of $320 for disposal of all bulky, construction, and demolition waste. A minimum charge of $45 will be collected for all weight under 300 pounds.
All payments required by these regulations and fees established by the Selectboard shall be made prior to disposal. All payments of the Transfer Station must be made with a debit or credit card (MasterCard or VISA).
Proof of residency is required, which is your name and address on license and vehicle registration, tax bill and utility bill. If vehicle is not registered in Hingham, you must also supply copies of your Hingham tax bill, year-round residential lease in the Town of Hingham or vehicle lease agreement. A company vehicle will require an authorized letter on company letterhead.
Hours of operation are Thursday through Sunday, from 10 a.m. until 2 p.m., weather permitting. Only good usable items please; no mattresses, bulky furniture, computers, paint or hazardous materials. No loitering, abusive language or unattended children. Respect for your neighbors and town employees are expected and required. Remember, the SWAP area can be a dangerous place for young children. Please keep them in your car. Swap Shop visit limit is ten minutes.
Latex Paint - Latex paint can be disposed of as trash if dry. To dry small amounts, remove lid and let the paint air dry in the can. For larger amounts, mix in kitty litter or pour one-inch layers of paint in a cardboard box lined with a plastic bag.
If latex paint is good usable paint: Recolor Paints - 149B Winter Street - Hanover, MA 02370 https://recyclingworksma.com/recycler/recolor-paints/ (small fee may be applied)
Oil-based Paint - Oil-based paint or stain is considered hazardous waste and is not accepted. Signup to attend a Hazardous Waste Day. For more info: https://ssrcoop.info/


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ARMY WIVES, Lifetime's longest-running series, will not return after recently wrapping its historic seven-season run on the network. To honor the ABC Studios-produced series, Lifetime is planning a two-hour retrospective special with cast members that will air early next year.
Regarding the announcement, Rob Sharenow, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Lifetime, said, "There is no denying how special ARMY WIVES has been to both Lifetime and the television landscape. By taking on a very relevant and timely issue, it has brilliantly captured the challenges our military families endure and the bravery they and their loved ones display while serving our country."
He added, "It has been an honor to be the home of ARMY WIVES. We also want to thank ARMY WIVES' passionate legion of fans and everyone involved with the series: ABC Studios, Mark Gordon and Jeff Melvoin, Tanya Biank, every single cast member, as well as the crew and community of Charleston, South Carolina. Without their dedication, effort and loyalty, ARMY WIVES' seven wonderful seasons would not have been possible; and for that we are very grateful."
ARMY WIVES, which follows the struggles, dreams and friendships of a diverse group of women living with their spouses and families on an active Army post, has starred Catherine Bell, Kim Delaney, Sally Pressman, Wendy Davis, Brigid Brannagh, Kelli Williams, Brian McNamara, Sterling K. Brown, Brooke Shields, Ashanti, Torrey DeVitto, Elle McLemore, Jesse McCartney, Terry Serpico, Drew Fuller, Alyssa Diaz, J.J. Soria, Joshua Henry and Burgess Jenkins, among others. Produced by ABC Studios, with Mark Gordon and Jeff Melvoin executive producing, it is based on the book Under the Sabers: The Unwritten Code of ARMY WIVES by Tanya Biank, who served as a consultant. The series was created by Katherine Fugate.
The drama has received numerous accolades, including two Gracie Awards from the Alliance for Women in Media, a Sentinel for Health Award from the USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism's Norman Lear Center, as well as numerous NAACP Image Award, NAMIC Award and Prism Award nominations, to name a few.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
ARMY WIVES Canceled; Lifetime Will Air Two-Hour Retrospective Next Year
Army Wives,
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Since Brant Daughterty was reportedly set to do more Army Wives, with this news of the show's cancellation, DAYS should take the opportunity to sign him to a contract. After all, now that Nathan Owens (Cameron) is departing, they'll need a general practitioner-type intern at Salem University Hospital, and Daughtery's "Brian" would fill the role nicely. Recall, Brian was said to be pre-med.
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By Ming-Yuen S. Ma
Dear Reader,
Like many of you, when the COVID-19 pandemic started spreading globally, all of my travel plans grounded to a halt. I have not left Los Angeles since March of this year. For someone with ailing parents who live across an ocean, this is certainly a problem. More relevant to this blog post, my book There is no soundtrack: Rethinking art, media, and the audio-visual contract was published over the summer. Like my family visits, all of my planned book tour, talks, and other in-person activities were canceled.
I had promised the many artists, musicians, and arts professionals I interviewed for the book that I would send them copies when it came out. So my first question was how to do that in a safe and accessible way when there is a deadly virus, for which there is no vaccine or cure, spreading through the population? Since both the printing and mailing of the book continue to be delayed due to the pandemic and its effects, I am grateful that the eBook version was published simultaneously with the hardcover. Now I have a touch-free and instantaneous option to make my book available to others!
In the process of sending the book to the interviewees, and in our many conversations and correspondences, updates on everyone's health, families, mutual friends, communities, and how their lives and art practices have changed since the pandemic that followed, I was motivated to re-conceive my book tour for There is no soundtrack into a sound-based series. I was also inspired by a project one of my students created last semester, which documented many spontaneous as well as organized expressions of community and solidarity during the quarantines and lockdowns around the world. (For example, the 7pm nightly cheer for frontline workers in New York City during its first wave of coronavirus cases in March and April). It occurred to me that the soundscape, where many of these collective manifestations of community took place, is one of the few spaces left where it is safe to intermingle and even touch a stranger through our voices and the other sounds we make.
In that spirit, and also because sound is one of the main subjects of my book, I have conceptualized a book tour, remixed. In this series of sound-based programs that will be distributed for free online, I am inviting selected artists and groups who are discussed in There is no soundtrack to respond to it creatively and critically. This process has begun, and thus far, each collaboration is turning out to be quite unique, and the series continues to evolve. Below are the conceptual and logistical parameters I sent to the collaborators:
This series will be focused on the artists I discuss in the book, as well as its content and ideas. The structure of each program is a remixed book reading or talk, followed by a conversation between myself and the collaborating artist. The process begins when I send a copy of There is no soundtrack to the collaborating artist for them to read. The artist will select a passage from the book, which I will read for them. This reading will be the raw material for the remix. Here, I am thinking about "remix" in very broad terms. Obviously, a sound recording of my reading can be its basis. I am also open to more conceptual, critical, theoretical, experiential, and other ways of thinking about remixing. For me, this is a creative way that artists whose work and practice I discuss in the book can respond to it. What form this takes is part of the collaboration, and to be determined by myself and the collaborating artist. I am hoping for diverse approaches and results in the series. A conversation follows the remix, and is recorded as audio, video, and/or text for distribution. I aim to launch the series with about 4-6 collaborations, with the possibility of more to follow.
I am happy to announce that the first of these collaborations, with artist Richard Garet, will premiere at my book launch on Saturday, November 14. During this event, Richard and I will engage in a live conversation, which will be recorded and later distributed along with his sound work as a part of this series. hope you can join us for the book launch on November 14, and experience live the beginning of this exciting and evolving program. If not, you can look out for updates and postings on the program at my website, Richard's website and on this blog post and social media channels.
Best regards,


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I thought my awakening would arrive in a moment like that, the clouds parting in the very instant the connection was made so the sun shone down upon us like a blessing from above. As it turned out, the moment came on a gloomy day near Aldershot while at the wheel of a two-tonne BMW EV having just driven another that's more or less a decade old.
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The organizer who were Tanaka-san (Dainihon-giken) and Bishii-san (Asakusa-giken) announced on Dec 4th, 2009 that they began to make multi-legged robots for robot survival game with toy gun and sensor for detecting the impact, which were controlled using image monitor such as Mech Warfare in U.S.A. The movement of making multi-legged robot in Japan began from this announce.
Trials were held twice for getting information of the robot survival game such as gun-shoot range of height and radio control and camera system without confusion. The 1st trail took place at the office of Dainihon-giken in Mitaka City, Tokyo on April 10th and the 2nd one at ASOBITCITY in Akihabara and at Kanto Trainning Meeting in Minami-senju, Tokyo on June 13th, 2010.
Main regulations of the robot survival game are as follows;
1) Mobile bodies are not only multi-legged robot or biped robot but also mobile with wheel or caterpillar.
2) Weapons are toy-gun under 0.1 J and/or the other shooting system.
3) Equipped stopping mechanism of the body by gun-hit sensor using a solar battery covered with tinfoil (6 x 6 x 6 cm cubed or 5 x 6 x 7 cm).
4) Robot control has to be done with the image on PC from the camera attached on the robot.
5) Participants have to handle toy-gun carefully and put protector on eyes.
There are 18 enrollments for this robot survival game. Eight robots (including mobile bodies with wheels or caterpillars) with full equipments for the regulation joined the 1st Robot Survival Game. The other members were in the course of making equipments for the survival game such as gun-shooting and gun-hit sensor systems.
Multi-legged robot is stable to walk compared with biped robot and even low powered servo motor can move the body. It is not so hard for biped robot builders to make a new multi-legged robot. Biped robot builders also have a lot of idle controller, servos, arms and parts.
However, it is not so easy even for robot builders to make these robot survival game systems. Participant has to make his mobile body, gun-shooting system, gun-hit sensor and camera system. It is also necessary for correct gun-shooting to make a laser beam aiming system. Koizumi-san, a member of the robot survival game, designed the electric circuit for gun-shooting system and gun-hit sensor system. As the circuits are not sold on the market except for electric parts, member has to make these electric circuits by himself.
Eight robots were divided into two teams. Each team reader was Igaa-san and gons-san respectively.
Members of Igaa team are as follows;
`Vanga`, 6-legged with wheels robot was custom-built by Igaa. It could move very fast using wheel system.
`Yabusame`, 4-legged robot was custom-built by Mota.
`Arnold Stallone`, 4-legged turtle robot with KCB-3WL, which was a new board for remote controlling robot system from KONDO by watching image around the robot on PC, with double guns system was custom-built by Noborizaka.
`Danga`, mobile with caterpillar such as tank was custom-built by Igaa.
Members of gons team are as follows;
`Denryu' with 4 wheel body was custom-built by gons.
` BLACK TIGER L45`, 5-legged robot was custom-built by IKETOMU. As it was based biped robot body and using high power servo motor KRS-4013HV, the mobility was high compared with other multi-legged ones.
`Goryu`, mobile was custom-built by Koizumi.
`Osaru-2.5gou`, mobile with caterpillars attached a rubber band frotress was custum-built by Osaru.
Tanaka-san planed field layout to use long shooting range valuable, field was divided into 4 parts as A to D. In the A & D parts, high and big obstacles were set for not to recognize each other till the moment they saw each other as street fighting. In the B &D parts, low and small obstacles for barricade were set, where they can see each other but they have to move for shooting.
Tanaka-san also planned games as follows;
[Combat Shooting]
Practice game for trainning of shoot skill. In the C & D field, player moves to the No.1 shooting place from the starting point and shoot the target. After shooting down the target, player moves to next place and shoot the target. Winner is the shortest time player for shooting down 3 targets. The target is a cut 1 L milk paper pack. Player has to go through a wire gate or to push down a flag for getting to the shooting place.
Practice game for team member. Sparring takes place in the A(D) field or B(D) field. Sparring takes place between a expert and a beginner for 3 minutes. The Expert cannot shoot and just run away around the beginner shooting.
[Handicapped game]
Practice game for team leader vs other team members for 3 minutes in the C & D field. During the first 2 minutes and 30 seconds, team leader cannot shoot and run away, other team members shoot leader. During the rest 30 seconds, the leader can shoot other team members and other members cannot shoot. All robots put on the diagonal (line) at the starting time to prevent from ending the game in a short time.
[Team game]
Each team has A & B or C & D fields as territory. Robots can put in the A & D field at the beginning of the game. Game time is 5 minutes.
1. Destroy the enemy completely
Each team fights to destroy the enemy completely within 5 minutes. The winner team is having larger number of survival robot after 5 minutes.
2. Flag fight
Each team fights to shoot down flag in the enemy territory as the combat shooting. The winner is the team shot down the enemy flag within 5 minutes or the team which has larger number of survival robot after 5 minute in the case of each flag does not shoot down within 5 minutes.
[Fight a duel]
Just 2 robots fight in the field. Using of field and fighting time is free.
Before above survival games took place, hit sensor ajustment of all robots for same sensitivity was carried out.
Survival game between 2 teams was carried out. The 1st game was carried out without camera system. The 2nd game was carried out using camera image on PC.
The details were also described in Tanaka-san's Blog (in Japanese).
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An unread book is all possible stories. It contains all possible characters, styles, genres, turns of phrase, metaphors, speech patterns, and profound life-changing revelations. An unread book exists only in the primordial soup of your imagination, and there it can evolve into any story you like. An unread book – any unread book – could change your life.
Like most readers, I love browsing in bookshops and libraries. I like to run my fingers along the spines and read titles and authors' names. I pull the books out and flip through them, thinking about the stories inside them, the things I would learn from them, how my life would be subtly but surely different after I had read them. Sometimes I buy or borrow the books and read them. As much as I enjoy the books, I often find that the book I have read is somehow not as exciting as the book I had imagined reading. No book is ever quite as good as it potentially could have been.
Last week I bought a book. I looked at the blurb and read the first paragraph, and I could feel the texture of the book in my mind. It was going to be a steadily-paced yet exciting coming-of-age story about three young girls who go camping in the woods, stumble across a couple holidaying in a cabin, and see things through the windows that upend their world. It would move from the girls in their clumsy tent, to their fable-like journey through the forest, to the glowing windows of the cabin. The story was going to be overflowing with the smell of mulching leaves, the stale sweetness of fizzy drinks on the tongue, the crackle of empty sweet wrappers. It was going to be honest and real and uncomfortably sensual. Except that it wasn't about that at all: it was a thriller about a woman having an affair. With every sentence I read, the book I had imagined shrank smaller and smaller. By the end of the third page, it had disappeared. The actual book was by no means bad, it just wasn't the book I thought it would be.[1]
I have about 800 unread books on my shelves. Some would find this excessive, and they would probably be right. But I take comfort in knowing that I will have appropriate reading material whatever my mood, that I will be spoiled for choice whenever I want a book, and that I will never, ever run out of new stories.[2] From the cover design, the back blurb, and general absorption of cultural knowledge, I have a strong idea of what each one of my unread books is like.
For example, I think that Mervyn Peake's Gormenghast Trilogy is at once claustrophobic and expansive. It has the texture of solid green leaves crunched between your molars. It tastes of sweetened tea and stale bread and dust. When I read it, I will feel close to my father because it is his favorite book. Reading the Gormenghast books will allow me to understand my father in ways I currently do not, and at certain points in the book I will put it down and stare into the middle distance and say "Oh. Now my childhood makes sense."
Radclyffe Hall's The Well of Loneliness will make me sad and proud and indignant. I will no longer get tangled up in discussions about gender issues, because I will finally have clear-cut and undeniable examples of how gender stereotyping is bad for everyone. Reading it will make me feel like an integral part of queer history and culture, and afterwards I will feel mysteriously connected to all my fellow LGBT people. Perhaps I will even have gaydar.
Roberto Bolaño's 2666 is an obsessive and world-shifting epic. When I read it, I will be completely absorbed by it. It will be all I think about. It will affect my daily life in ways I can't fully understand, and when I finish it I will have come to profound revelations about the nature of existence. I will finally understand all the literary theory I wrote essays on when I was at university.
I have not read these books because I worry that they're not the books I think they are. Perhaps I will never read them. I'm sure they are wonderful books, but no book could possibly contain all the knowledge and understanding I am expecting from these. I know it's unrealistic, but I still hope.
There is another reason to leave books unread: because I know I will love them. This might seem nonsensical, and I suppose it is. I am a writer, and I learn how to write by reading; I know that certain books will teach me more than others because they are similar in style and content to my own writing, though vastly better. This is why I have not read Fucking Daphne, an anthology of sex writing about and edited by Daphne Gottlieb; or Alice Greenaway's White Ghost Girls, a short and lyrical novel about sisters in 1960s Hong Kong; or Francesca Lia Block's fantastical erotica novellas, Ecstasia and Primavera; or anything ever written by Martin Millar[3].
I know that I will love them and want to learn from them, and so I don't read them: firstly because it is tiring to read that way, with your eyes and ears and brain constantly absorbing; and secondly because once I read them they will be over, the mystery will be revealed. Sometimes I hold these books in my hands and imagine what I will learn from them. These books have affected my writing, and I haven't even read them. Maybe we can learn as much from our expectations of a story as we can from the actual words on the page.
Go to your bookshelves and pick a book you have not read. Hold it in your hands. Look at the cover and read the description on the back. Think about what the story might be about, what themes and motifs might be in it, what it might say about the world you inhabit, whether it can make you imagine an entirely different world. I suggest that the literary universe you just created might be more exciting and enlightening than the one contained within those covers. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that book. It might prove to be a great book; the best book you have ever read. But your imagination contains every possible story, every possible understanding, and any book can only be one tiny portion of that potential world.
Back | 1. I prefer my version, and still harbor a hope that my imagined story is out there. If you've read it, let me know.
Back | 2. In my defense, I spent six years as a bookseller and am now the reviews editor for a magazine, so I accumulated a lot of paperbacks. Plus, I can't go past a second-hand bookshop without finding something that I must have.
Back | 3. This is also why I have never reread my favorite books: Patrick Süskind's Perfume, Kathryn Harrison's The Kiss, Françoise Sagan's Bonjour Tristesse, or Alan Moore and Melinda Gebbie's Lost Girls. They're just too good.
[Image credit: Kenny Louie]


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Leaving Marks
Fall has arrived, and with it another year starts to wind down. Where does the time go? And what have I done this year to make a difference?
I think about this often, especially as each year ticks away.
As you get older you realize it's not about what you have, it's about what you've done. What you do every day.
Have I been kind to someone today? Made a difference in my community? In the world?
If only we could see how each small thing we did could become a mountain when piled together. How every gesture we make towards another person or animal truly matters.
I rode past this paint, splattered there in the road. It had been there a while and was dry already. The number of wheel marks in the bike lane fascinated me. I wondered if the people who had gone through while it was wet realized how they had left their mark, perhaps permanently in this bike lane on California Avenue.
And so I ask myself, what small thing can I do tomorrow? And the next day…and the next.
Because I know that's how I will leave my mark.


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MANILA, Philippines — A powerful typhoon struck the northern Philippines on Monday, toppling power lines and dumping heavy rains across mountains, cities and food-growing plains and leaving at least 23 fishermen missing.
Typhoon Utor, described as the strongest typhoon globally so far this year, slammed ashore in mountainous eastern Aurora province with sustained winds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 210 kph (130 mph).
About 1,000 residents in the central Bicol region spent the night in shelters while Aurora province was without power, the national disaster agency said. Radio stations reported roofs were blown off and a covered basketball court washed away in Dinalungan town.
There was no immediate word on casualties, but 23 fishermen who were out at sea failed to return home in four towns in Catanduanes province, according to their families. Authorities were hoping they just took shelter in coves and nearby islands, said Office of Civil Defense regional director Bernardo Alejandro IV.
"I hope they're just waiting for the typhoon to pass and will show up as soon as the weather clears," he said. A higher number of missing had been reported over the weekend, but some fishermen since returned home.
More than 8,000 travelers were stranded as passenger and cargo ferries were grounded.
Classes in towns and cities on the typhoon's path were suspended, including in the capital Manila, and several domestic flights canceled.
Utor was forecast to cut across the main northern island of Luzon on Monday and move into the South China Sea on Tuesday in the direction of Guangdong in China, expected to make landfall there Wednesday.
Utor is the 12th of about 20 storms and typhoons expected to lash the Philippines this year.


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I often see presentations at marketing seminars on 'how to deal with wine bloggers' or some such, as if we were wild animals to be approached with extreme caution. While there may be some truth to this, here's my take.
I'll use a message that hit the inbox last weekend as a jumping off point for the discussion. It reads as follows:
Subject: Web link
We are a twelve year old winery with the following web site: [redacted]. What is required to have a link from your web site to our web site?
Thank you.
Before talking about how to approach bloggers and discussing some of the specifics of this message, let's start with some basics. If you are a winery representative approaching a wine blogger about your winery, consider the message a professional interaction and write the content accordingly. You're looking for some type of outcome – most likely coverage of your winery. Think about what you can do to make that outcome as likely as possible. Here are some suggestions, using this message as a guide.
1. Subject
Putting something in the subject line that attracts the interest of the reader and has some information on what the message itself is about helps. In the message sent to me, the 'Web link' is not particularly informative. In fact it sounds almost spam-esque. I expected the content to be something like: 'LMAO! You've got to see this!'
2. Salutation
While in some cases a salutation simply shows a proficiency or lack thereof with mail merges (Dear Sean:), it can also provide a more personal touch and show that someone has taken the time to find out who you are. Personally, I don't pay much attention to messages that are not addressed specifically to me as they tend to be mass mailings and my name is easily found on my site.
3. Content
The message should be concise and to the point. We all receive about a 100 times more e-mail messages than we'd like, so time is of the essence. You are writing with some goal in mind. State what that goal is. It also helps to show that you have done some research/have some background on the person you are corresponding with. This is where this message falls (considerably) short.
The person writing does state their objective – having me link to their website. But this message shows that the person hasn't really done their homework about who I am or what my site is about. I don't link to sites. I write about wineries and review wines, and a quick review of my site would hopefully show this. But here is what really shows that the person hasn't done their homework. It is from a winery in…
I wish I could say that this is the first time that this has happened. Read a recent post by friend and fellow blogger Paul Gregutt here about the frequent confusion regarding Washington State and Washington, D.C.
Determining how to interact with wine bloggers and whom to interact with is indeed one of the challenges that has arisen for wineries over the last few years given the proliferation of bloggers out there. But if you are considering contacting a blogger about your winery, the best thing is to do some research. Does the person seem reputable? Do you like their style of writing? Do you understand how they might write about your winery? If you have questions, ask around to your peers. What are their experiences? Again, figure out what the outcome is that you're looking for and how to make that outcome as likely as possible.
The message here is clearly from someone who wants something – a link to their site – but hasn't put in the effort to figure out how to go about making this happen, so it's unlikely to be successful. Make sure to do your research. Know something about the person you are communicating with, what their site is about, and how this ties in to what you're looking for.
Here's a quick draft of how this message could have been written to be more likely to get a positive response – assuming of course that it was from a winery in the Pacific Northwest!
Subject: Introducing you to [winery name]
Dear Sean:
I recently came across your site, Washington Wine Report, and wanted to write and introduce myself. My name is [insert name here] and I work for [insert winery name here]. We are located in [region] and focus on [what].
Looking at your site I noticed that you have not reviewed our wines previously, so I wanted to invite you to come visit the winery to tell you more about us. Alternately, I could send you samples and we could arrange a time to talk about the winery on the phone. If you are interested in either, please email me or contact me at the number below.
I look forward to hearing from you.


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Thick (1.375") Maple Hardwood Squares
Thick Hard Maple squares are listed in specific sizes, but we will make any size or shape that suits you needs, including diamonds, though for custom shapes you will need to send us an inquiry to get a price. Click here: When you buy from us, there's no waste, no trip to the store, and your pieces will be delivered right to your door. Hard Maple is a smooth, tight grained hardwood and can be sanded, readily stained or painted to give a lifetime of service. It is used for bowling alleys, basketball courts, and the backs of Cellos. You'll like it for any purpose calling for beauty and durability.


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A Lubbock man took out his frustrations with the Obama health care plan recently by plowing his protest into a field of weeds. The plan could cost taxpayers trillions of dollars over the next several years, MSNBC reports.
Sam Bates, a former art teacher cut down some weeds and left a large message visible from the sky: "Say no to Obama!"
"I thought, maybe some pilots flying from here to Dallas would get a good chuckle," Bates said.
But with the Internet and television, the message has reached far more than the few pilots and birds he expected. Bates had a friend help him put aerial photos of the field online, sending the images to people around the world.
The grass in the field will eventually die, but he said maybe next year he will use it as a canvas for a new message.
Holly LaFon has written and worked for various local publications including D Magazine and Examiner.


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Decision Making Changes With Age – and Age Helps!
We make decisions all our lives—so you'd think we'd get better and better at it. Yet research has shown that younger adults are better decision makers than older ones. Some Texas psychologists, puzzled by these findings, suspected the experiments were biased toward younger brains.
So, rather than testing the ability to make decisions one at a time without regard to past or future, as earlier research did, these psychologists designed a model requiring participants to evaluate each result in order to strategize the next choice, more like decision making in the real world.
The results: The older decision makers trounced their juniors. The findings will be published in an upcoming issue of Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.
"We found that older adults are better at evaluating the immediate and delayed benefits of each option they choose from. They are better at creating strategies in response to the environment," says Darrell Worthy, of Texas A&M University, who conducted the study with Marissa Gorlick, Jennifer Pacheco, David Schnyer, and Todd Maddox, all at the University of Texas at Austin.
In the first experiment, groups of older (ages 60 to early 80s) and younger (college-age) adults received points each time they chose from one of four options and tried to maximize the points they earned. In this portion, the younger adults were more efficient at selecting the options that yielded more points.
In the second experiment—the setup was a sham test of two "oxygen accumulators" on Mars—the rewards received depended on the choices made previously. The "decreasing option" gave a larger number of points on each trial, but caused rewards on future trials to be lower. The "increasing option" gave a smaller reward on each trial but caused rewards on future trials to increase. In one version of the test, the increasing option led to more points earned over the course of the experiment; in another, chasing the increasing option couldn't make up for the points that could be accrued grabbing the bigger bite on each trial.
The older adults did better on every permutation.
"The younger adults were better when only the immediate rewards needed to be considered," says Worthy. "But the second experiment required developing a theory about how rewards in the environment were structured. The more experience you have in this, the better you are better at it."
The psychologists conjecture that these results are related to the ways we use our brains as we age. Younger people's choice making relies on the ventral striatum, which is related to habitual, reflexive learning and immediate rewards: impulsivity. But as this portion of the brain declines, older adults compensate by using their pre-frontal cortices, where more rational, deliberative thinking is controlled.
"More broadly, our findings suggest that older adults have learned a number of heuristics"—reasoning methods—"from their vast decision-making experience," says Worthy. Another word for this, which the psychologists use in their title, is wisdom. For older people, it may be nice to know that this sometimes-undervalued asset has been ratified in the lab.


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Albert Einstein once said, "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong." Einstein's words express a foundational principle of science intoned by the logician, Karl Popper: Falsifiability. In order to verify a hypothesis there must be a test by which it can be proved false. A thousand observations may appear to verify a hypothesis, but one critical failure could result in its demise. The history of science is littered with such examples.
A hypothesis that cannot be falsified by empirical observations, is not science. The current hypothesis on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), presented by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is no exception to this principle. Indeed, it is the job of scientists to expose the weaknesses of this hypothesis as it undergoes peer review. This paper will examine one key criterion for falsification: ocean heat.
Ocean heat plays a crucial role in the AGW hypothesis, which maintains that climate change is dominated by human-added, well-mixed green house gasses (GHG). IR radiation that is absorbed and re-emitted by these gases, particularly CO2, is said to be amplified by positive feedback from clouds and water vapor. This process results in a gradual accumulation of heat throughout the climate system, which includes the atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and, most importantly, the hydrosphere. The increase in retained heat is projected to result in rising atmospheric temperatures of 2-6ºC by the year 2100.
In 2005 James Hansen, Josh Willis, and Gavin Schmidt of NASA coauthored a significant article (in collaboration with twelve other scientists), on the "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (Science, 3 June 2005, 1431-35). This paper affirmed the critical role of ocean heat as a robust metric for AGW. "Confirmation of the planetary energy imbalance," they maintained, "can be obtained by measuring the heat content of the ocean, which must be the principal reservoir for excess energy" (1432).
Monotonic Heating. Since the level of CO2 and other well-mixed GHG is on the rise, the overall accumulation of heat in the climate system, measured by ocean heat, should be fairly steady and uninterrupted (monotonic) according to IPCC models, provided there are no major volcanic eruptions. According to the hypothesis, major feedbacks in the climate system are positive (i.e., amplifying), so there is no mechanism in this hypothesis that would cause a suspension or reversal of overall heat accumulation. Indeed, any suspension or reversal would suggest that the heating caused by GHG can be overwhelmed by other human or natural processes in the climate system.
A reversal of sufficient magnitude could conceivably reset the counter back to "zero" (i.e., the initial point from which a current set of measurements began). If this were to take place, the process of heat accumulation would have to start again. In either case, a suspension or reversal of heat accumulation (excepting major volcanic eruptions) would mean that we are dealing with a form of cyclical rather than monotonic heating.
Most scientists who oppose the conclusions of the IPCC have been outspoken in their advocacy of cyclical heating and cooling caused primarily by natural processes, and modified by long-term human climate forcings such as land use change and aerosols. These natural forcings include ocean cycles (PDO, AMO), solar cycles (sunspots, total irradiance), and more speculative causes such as orbital oscillations, and cosmic rays.
Temperature is not Heat!
Despite a consensus among scientists on the use of ocean heat as a robust metric for AGW, near-surface air temperature (referred to as "surface temperature") is generally employed to gauge global warming. The media and popular culture have certainly equated the two. But this equation is not simply the product of a naïve misunderstanding. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), directed by James Hansen, and the British Hadley Centre for Climate Change, have consistently promoted the use of surface temperature as a metric for global warming. The highly publicized, monthly global surface temperature has become an icon of the AGW projections made by the IPCC.
However, use of surface air temperature as a metric has weak scientific support, except, perhaps, on a multi-decadal or century time-scale. Surface temperature may not register the accumulation of heat in the climate system from year to year. Heat sinks with high specific heat (like water and ice) can absorb (and radiate) vast amounts of heat. Consequently the oceans and the cryosphere can significantly offset atmospheric temperature by heat transfer creating long time lags in surface temperature response time. Moreover, heat is continually being transported in the atmosphere between the poles and the equator. This reshuffling can create fluctuations in average global temperature caused, in part, by changes in cloud cover and water vapor, both of which can alter the earth's radiative balance.
Hype generated by scientists and institutions over short-term changes in global temperature (up or down) has diverted us from the real issue: heat accumulation. Heat is not the same as temperature. Two liters of boiling water contain twice as much heat as one liter of boiling water even though the water in both vessels is the same temperature. The larger container has more thermal mass which means it takes longer to heat and cool.
Temperature measures the average kinetic energy of molecular motion at a specific point. But it does not measure the total kinetic energy of all the molecules in a substance. In the example above, there is twice as much heat in 2 liters of boiling water because there is twice as much kinetic energy. On average, the molecules in both vessels are moving at the same speed, but the larger container has twice as many molecules.
Temperature may vary from point to point in a moving fluid such as the atmosphere or ocean, but its heat remains constant so long as energy is not added or removed from the system. Consequently, heat-not temperature-is the only sound metric for monitoring the total energy of the climate system. Since heat is a function of both mass and energy, it is normally measured in Joules per kilogram (or calories per gram):
Q = mc∆T
Where Q is heat (Joules)
m is mass (kg)
c is the specific heat constant of the substance (J/kg/°C)
∆T is the change in temperature (°C)
The Thermal Mass of the Oceans
Water is a more appropriate metric for heat accumulation than air because of its ability to store heat. For this reason, it is also a more robust metric for assessing global warming and cooling. Seawater has a much higher mass than air (1030 kg/m3 vs. 1.20 kg/m3at 20ºC), and a higher specific heat (4.18 kJ/kg/°C vs. 1.01 kJ/kg/°C for air at 23°C and 41% humidity). One kilogram of water can retain 4.18x the heat of an equivalent mass of air. This amounts to a thermal mass which is nearly 3558x that of air per unit volume.
For any given area on the ocean's surface, the upper 2.6m of water has the same heat capacity as the entire atmosphere above it! Considering the enormous depth and global surface area of the ocean (70.5%), it is apparent that its heat capacity is greater than the atmosphere by many orders of magnitude. Consequently, as Hansen, et. al. have concluded, the ocean must be regarded as the main reservoir of atmospheric heat and the primary driver of climate fluctuations.
Heat accumulating in the climate system can be determined by profiling ocean temperature, and from precise measurements of sea surface height as they relate to thermal expansion and contraction of ocean water. These measurements are now possible on a global scale with the ARGO buoy array and from satellite measurements of ocean surface heights. ARGO consists of a world-wide network of over 3000 free-drifting platforms that measure temperature and salinity in the upper 2000m of ocean. The robotic floats rise to the surface every 10 days and transmit data to a satellite which also determines their location.
Pielke's Litmus Test
In 2007 Roger Pielke, Sr. suggested that ocean heat should be used not just to monitor the energy imbalance in the climate system, but as a "litmus test" for falsifying the IPCC's AGW hypothesis (Pielke, "A Litmus Test...", climatesci.org, April 4, 2007). Dr. Pielke is a Senior Research Scientist in CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences), at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and Professor Emeritus of the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins. One of the world's foremost atmospheric scientists, he has published nearly 350 papers in peer-reviewed journals, 50 chapters in books, and co-edited 9 books.
Pielke's test compares the net anthropogenic radiative forcing projected by GISS computer models (Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al.) with actual ocean heat as measured by the ARGO array. To calculate the annual projected heat accumulation in the climate system or oceans, radiative forcing (Watts/m2) must be converted to Joules (Watt seconds) and multiplied by the total surface area of the oceans or earth:
or, [#2] Qannum = (Ri Pyear Aocean) .85
Where Qannum is the annual heat accumulation in Joules
Ri is the mean global anthropogenic radiative imbalance in W/m2
P is the period of time in seconds/year (31,557,600)
Aocean is the total surface area of the oceans in m2 (3.61132 x 1014)
Aearth is the total surface area of the earth in m2 (5.10072 x 1014)
.80 & .85 are reductions for isolating upper ocean heat (see below)
Radiative Imbalance. The IPCC and GISS calculate the global mean net anthropogenic radiative forcing at ~1.6 W/m2(-1.0, +.8), (see, 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, figure SPM.2 and Hanson, Willis, Schmidt et al., page 1434, Table 1). This is the effective total of all anthropogenic forcings on the climate system. Projected heat accumulation is not calculated from this number, but from the mean global anthropogenic radiative imbalance (Ri). According to Hanson, Willis, Schmidt et al., the imbalance represents that fraction of the total net anthropogenic forcing which the climate system has not yet responded to due to thermal lag (caused primarily by the oceans). The assumption is that since the earth has warmed, a certain amount of energy is required to maintain the current global temperature. Continuing absorption will cause global temperatures to rise further until a new balance is reached.
Physically, the climate system responds to the entire 1.6 W/m2 forcing, not just a portion of it. But while energy is being absorbed, it is also being lost by radiation. The radiative imbalance is better described as the difference between the global mean net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its associated radiative loss. The global radiative imbalance of .75 W/m2 (shown below) would mean that the earth system is radiating .85 W/m2 in response to 1.6 W/m2of total forcing (1.6 - .85 = .75). For a more detailed discussion of radiative equilibrium see, Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: "Heat storage within the Earth system." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 331-335.
Projected Ocean Heat. Since observed heat accumulation is derived from measurements in the upper 700m-750m of the ocean, an "apples to apples" comparison with model projections requires some adjustments. Eq. #1, used by the GISS model, assumes that nearly all of the energy from anthropogenic radiative forcing is eventually absorbed by the oceans (80%-90% according to Willis, U.S. CLIVAR, 1, citing Levitus, et. al.). Based on modeling by Hansen, Willis, Schmidt, et. al., (page 1432) upper ocean heat is thought to comprise 80% of the total as shown in the illustration. So, the calculated heat must be multiplied by 0.8 to subtract deep ocean heat (below 750m) and heat storage by the atmosphere, land, and cryosphere (see discussion on deep ocean heat and melting ice below).
Another method for calculating heat accumulation is shown in Eq. #2. This method assumes that only 71% (i.e., the fraction of the earth covered by oceans) of the energy from anthropogenic radiative forcing is absorbed by the oceans. Hence, the net global anthropogenic radiative flux is scaled to ocean surface area. To compare to upper ocean measurements, deep ocean heat must be subtracted by multiplying the results by ~0.85. As shown in the illustration above, the deep ocean absorbs about 0.11 W/m2 of the total ocean flux of 0.71 W/m2 (estimates vary, see discussion on deep ocean heat, below). Since this equation is not used by climate models, it is not included in the following tables. But, it is displayed in the graph below as a possible lower limit of projected heat accumulation.
In his blog, "Update On A Comparison Of Upper Ocean Heat Content Changes With The GISS Model Predictions" (climatesci.org, Feb. 9, 2009), Pielke projects heat accumulation based on an upper ocean mean net anthropogenic radiative imbalance of 0.6 W/m2as shown below (see Hanson, Willis, Schmidt et al., 1432). This is only a slight variance from his 2007 blog and affords the best opportunity for the GISS models to agree with observed data. A failure to meet this benchmark would be a robust demonstration of systemic problems.
Observed Ocean Heat. A comparison of these projections to observed data is shown below. Despite expectations of warming, temperature measurements of the upper 700m of the ocean from the ARGO array show no increase from 2003 through 2008. Willis calculates a net loss of -0.12 (±0.35) x 1022Joules per year (Pielke, Physics Today,55) from mid-2003 to the end of 2008 (Dr. Pielke received permission from Josh Willis to extend the ARGO data to the end of 2008).
According to a recent analysis of ARGO data by Craig Loehle, senior scientist at the Illinois-based National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, the loss is -0.35 (±0.2) x 1022Joules per year from mid-2003 to the end of 2007 (see Loehle, 2009: "Cooling of the global ocean since 2003.″ Energy & Environment, Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 101-104(4)). Loehle used a more complex method than Willis to calculate this trend, enabling him to reduce the margin of error.
My calculations for observed global heat, shown below, are based on observed upper ocean heat. Since upper ocean heat is calculated to be 80% of the global total (Eq. #1), observed global heat equals approximately 125% (1/0.8) of the observed upper ocean heat.
PROJECTED vs. OBSERVED HEAT ACCUMULATION, 2003-2008 (6 YEARS) | ||||
Model | Projected Global Heat Accumulation (Joules x 1022) |
Observed Global Heat Accumulation (Joules x 1022) |
Projected Upper Ocean Heat Accumulation (Joules x 1022) |
Observed Upper Ocean Heat Accumulation (Joules x 1022) |
GISS | 7.26 | -0.83 Willis (5.5 yr) -1.98
Loehle (4.5 yr) |
5.82 | -0.66 Willis (5.5 yr)-1.58 Loehle (4.5 yr) |
Heat Deficit. The graph below shows the increasing deficit of upper ocean heat from 2003 through 2008 based on GISS projections by Hansen, Willis, Schmidt, et. al. Actual heat accumulation is plotted from observed data (using ARGO) and shows the overall linear trend (after Willis and Loehle). Seasonal fluctuations and error bars are not shown.
The projection displays a range representing the two ways of calculating heat accumulation discussed above. The upper limit assumes that virtually all of the energy from anthropogenic radiative forcing is eventually absorbed by the oceans (Eq. #1). The lower limit scales the total radiative imbalance to the surface area of the oceans (Eq. #2). The upper limit represents the actual GISS model projection.
The 5.5 year accumulated heat deficit for GISS model projections (red line) ranges from 6.48 x 1022 Joules (using Willis) to 7.92 x 1022 Joules (Loehle, extrapolated to the end of 2008). Pielke is more conservative in his calculations, given the substantial margin of error in Willis' data (±0.35). Accordingly, he assumes zero heat accumulation for the full 6 year period (2003-2008), yielding a deficit of 5.88 x 1022Joules (Pielke, "Update..."). Loehle's work, which was not yet known to Pielke in February of 2009, has a much smaller margin of error (±0.2).
ARGO Data Analyzed by Willis |
ARGO Data Analyzed by Loehle (extrapolated to end of 2008) |
Pielke (based on Willis) |
-6.48 x 1022 Joules | -7.92 x 1022 Joules | -5.39 x 1022 Joules (-5.88 for 6 full years ) |
These figures reveal a robust failure on the part of the GISS model to project warming. The heat deficit shows that from 2003-2008 there was no positive radiative imbalance caused by anthropogenic forcing, despite increasing levels of CO2. Indeed, the radiative imbalance was negative, meaning the earth was losing slightly more energy than it absorbed. Solving for Riin Eq. #1, the average annual upper ocean radiative imbalance ranged from a statistically insignificant -.07 W/m2 (using Willis) to -.22 W/m2(using Loehle).
As Pielke points out ("Update..."), in order for the GISS model to verify by the end of 2012 (i.e., one decade of measurements), the annual radiative imbalance would have to increase to 1.50 W/m2 for the upper ocean which is 2.5x higher than the .6 W/m2projected by Hansen, Willis, Schmidt, et. al. (1432). This corresponds to an annual average accumulation of 2.45 x 1022 Joules in the upper ocean, or a 4 year total of 9.8 x 1022 Joules.
Using Loehle's deficit, the numbers are even more remarkable. Assuming that heating resumes for the next 4.5 years (2009 to mid 2013), the annual average accumulation of heat would need to be 2.73 x 1022 Joules in the upper ocean, for a 4.5 year total of 12.29 x 1022 Joules. The derived radiative imbalance for the upper ocean would increase to 1.7 W/m2, or nearly 3x higher than the projected imbalance.
Improbable Explanations for the Failure of Heat Accumulation
Hidden Heat. A few explanations have been proposed for the change in ocean heat. One popular suggestion is that there is "hidden" or "unrealized" heat in the climate system. This heat is being "masked" by the current cooling and will "return with a vengeance" once the cooling abates.
This explanation reveals a fundamental ignorance of thermodynamics and it is disappointing to see scientists suggest it. Since the oceans are the primary reservoir of atmospheric heat, there is no need to account for lag time involved with heat transfer. By using ocean heat as a metric, we can quantify nearly all of the energy that drives the climate system at any given moment. So, if there is still heat "in the pipeline", where is it? The deficit of heat after nearly 6 years of cooling is now enormous. Heat can be transferred, but it cannot hide. Without a credible explanation of heat transfer, the idea of unrealized heat is nothing more than an evasion.
Deep Ocean Heat. Is it possible that "lost" heat has been transferred to the deep ocean-below the 700 meter limit of our measurements? This appears unlikely. According to Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al., model simulations of ocean heat flow show that 85% of heat storage occurs above 750 m on average (with the range stretching from 78 to 91%) (1432). Moreover, if there is "buried" heat, widespread diffusion and mixing with bottom waters may render it statistically irrelevant in terms of its impact on climate.
The absence of heat accumulation in deep water is corroborated by a recent study of ocean mass and altimetric sea level by Cazenave, et. al. Deep water heat should produce thermal expansion, causing sea level to rise. Instead, steric sea level (which measures thermal expansion plus salinity effects) peaked near the end of 2005, then began to decline nearly steadily. It appears that ocean volume has actually contracted slightly.
Melting Ice. Another possibility is that meltwater from glaciers, sea ice, and ice caps is offsetting heat accumulation. Perhaps the ocean temperature has plateaued as the ice undergoes a phase change from solid to liquid (heat of fusion).
This explanation sounds plausible at first, but it is not supported by observed data or best estimates. In a 2001 paper published in Science, Levitus, et. al. calculates that the absorption of heat due to melting ice amounts to only 6.85% of the total increase in ocean heat during the 41 year period from about 1955 to 1996:
Observed increase in ocean heat (1955-1996) = 1.82 x 1023 J
Observed/estimated heat of fusion (1950's-1990's) = 1.247 x 1022 J
This work is quoted by Hansen, Willis, Schmidt, et. al. and further supported by their calculations (1432), which are even more conservative. Given a planetary energy imbalance of approximately +0.75 W/m2, their simulations show that only 5.3% (0.04 W/m2) of the energy is used to warm the atmosphere, the land, and melt ice. The balance of energy is absorbed by the ocean above 750 m (~0.6 W/m2), with a small amount of energy penetrating below 750 m (~0.11 W/m2).
The absorption of heat by melting ice is so small that even if it were to quadruple, the impact on ocean heat would be minuscule.
Cold Biasing. The ARGO array does not provide total geographic coverage. Ocean areas beneath ice are not measured. However, this would have a relatively small impact on total ocean heat since it comprises less than 7% of the ocean. As mentioned above, quality controlled water temperature below 700m is not available, though the floats operate to a depth of 2000m. Above 700m, the analysis performed by Willis includes a quality check of raw data which revealed a cold bias in some instruments. This bias was removed (Willis, CLIVAR, 1).
Loehle warns that the complexities of instrumental drift could conceivably create such artifacts (Loehle, 101), but concludes that his analysis is consistent with satellite and surface data which show no warming for the same period (e.g., see Douglass, D.H., J.R. Christy, 2009: "Limits on CO2 climate forcing from recent temperature data of Earth." Energy & Environment, Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 178-189 (13)). So it is unlikely that cold biasing could account for the observed changes in ocean heat.
In brief, we know of no mechanism by which vast amounts of "missing" heat can be hidden, transferred, or absorbed within the earth's system. The only reasonable conclusion-call it a null hypothesis-is that heat is no longer accumulating in the climate system and there is no longer a radiative imbalance caused by anthropogenic forcing. This not only demonstrates that the IPCC models are failing to accurately predict global warming, but also presents a serious challenge to the integrity of the AGW hypothesis.
Analysis and Conclusion
Though other criteria, such as climate sensitivity (Spencer, Lindzen), can be used to test the AGW hypothesis, ocean heat has one main advantage: Simplicity. While work on climate sensitivity certainly needs to continue, it requires more complex observations and hypotheses making verification more difficult. Ocean heat touches on the very core of the AGW hypothesis: When all is said and done, if the climate system is not accumulating heat, the hypothesis is invalid.
Writing in 2005, Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al. suggested that GISS model projections had been verified by a solid decade of increasing ocean heat (1993 to 2003). This was regarded as further confirmation the IPCC's AGW hypothesis. Their expectation was that the earth's climate system would continue accumulating heat more or less monotonically. Now that heat accumulation has stopped (and perhaps even reversed), the tables have turned. The same criteria used to support their hypothesis, is now being used to falsify it.
It is evident that the AGW hypothesis, as it now stands, is either false or fundamentally inadequate. One may argue that projections for global warming are measured in decades rather than months or years, so not enough time has elapsed to falsify this hypothesis. This would be true if it were not for the enormous deficit of heat we have observed. In other words, no matter how much time has elapsed, if a projection misses its target by such a large magnitude (6x to 8x), we can safely assume that it is either false or seriously flawed.
Assuming the hypothesis is not false, its proponents must now address the failure to skillfully project heat accumulation. Theories pass through stages of development as they are tested against observations. It is possible that the AGW hypothesis is not false, but merely oversimplified. Nevertheless, any refinements must include causal mechanisms which are testable and falsifiable. Arm waiving and ad hoc explanations (such as large margins of error) are not sufficient.
One possibility for the breakdown may relate back to climate sensitivity. It is assumed that most feedbacks are positive, amplifying the slight warming (.3º-1.2ºC) caused by CO2. This may only be partially correct. Perhaps these feedbacks undergo quasi-cyclical changes in tandem with natural fluctuations in climate. The net result might be a more punctuated increase in heat accumulation with possible reversals, rather than a monotonic increase. The outcome would be a much slower rate of warming than currently projected. This would make it difficult to isolate and quantify anthropogenic forcing against the background noise of natural climate signals.
On the other hand, the current lapse in heat accumulation demonstrates a complete failure of the AGW hypothesis to account for natural climate variability, especially as it relates to ocean cycles (PDO, AMO, etc.). If anthropogenic forcing from GHG can be overwhelmed by natural fluctuations (which themselves are not fully understood), or even by other types of anthropogenic forcing, then it is not unreasonable to conclude that the IPCC models have little or no skill in projecting global and regional climate change on a multi-decadal scale. Dire warnings about "runaway warming" and climate "tipping points" cannot be taken seriously. A complete rejection of the hypothesis, in its current form, would certainly be warranted if the ocean continues to cool (or fails to warm) for the next few years.
Whether the anthropogenic global warning hypothesis is invalid or merely incomplete, the time has come for serious debate and reanalysis. Since Dr. Pielke first published his challenge in 2007, no critical attempts have been made to explain these failed projections. His blogs have been greeted by the chirping of crickets. In the mean time costly political agendas focused on carbon mitigation continue to move forward, oblivious to recent empirical evidence. Open and honest debate has been marginalized by appeals to consensus. But as history has often shown, consensus is the last refuge of poor science.
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Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: "Heat storage within the Earth system." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 331-335.
Pielke Sr., R.A., "A Litmus Test For Global Warming - A Much Overdue Requirement", climatesci.org, April 4, 2007.
Pielke Sr., R.A., "Update On A Comparison Of Upper Ocean Heat Content Changes With The GISS Model Predictions", climatesci.org, Feb. 9, 2009.
Willis, J.K., D. Roemmich, and B. Cornuelle, 2004: "Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales." J. Geophys. Res., 109, C12036.
Willis, J. K., 2008: "Is it Me, or Did the Oceans Cool?", U.S. CLIVAR, Sept, 2008, Vol. 6, No. 2.
* William DiPuccio was a weather forecaster for the U.S. Navy, and a Meteorological/Radiosonde Technician for the National Weather Service. More recently, he served as head of the science department for St. Nicholas Orthodox School in Akron, Ohio (closed in 2006). He continues to write science curriculum, publish articles, and conduct science camps.