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U.S. Quarterly Economic Review - Optimism at the Fed
Economics / US Economy Apr 23, 2014 - 03:48 PM GMTIn today's Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expected QE to be more stimulative than it has been, to the tune of about 6% over the past four years – a total of about $1 trillion that never materialized.
Given that dismal track record, our authors ask why we should believe the Fed's prediction of 2.9% real GDP growth for 2014 and 3.4% for 2015 – particularly with QE being tapered into nonexistence.
A big part of the reason the Fed has been so steadily wrong, say Lacy and Van, is its overreliance on the so-called "wealth effect," which posits that an increase in consumer wealth – through higher stock prices or home values, for instance – will lead to increased consumer spending.
The wealth effect has been both a justification for quantitative easing and a root cause of consistent overly optimistic growth expectations by the FOMC. The research cited below suggests that the concept of a wealth effect is in fact deeply flawed. It is unfortunate that the FOMC has relied on this flawed concept to experiment with over $3 trillion in asset purchases and continues to use it as the basis for what we believe are overly optimistic growth expectations.
The effect isn't completely absent, say the authors, but their research suggests that it may five to ten times weaker than the Fed assumes. Go figure.
Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.Hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $5 billion under management and is the sub-adviser of the Wasatch-Hoisington US Treasury Fund (WHOSX).
It is been a busy day for me here in Dallas. Besides nonstop meetings and conversations and my usual reading, I had the privilege of going to the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve and watching President Richard Fisher make loans to a group of budding entrepreneurs to build lemonade stands. It is part of a fabulous organization called Lemonade Day. The basic concept is to enable young children to learn about entrepreneurship and capitalism by helping them launch a lemonade stand. Youth who register are taught 14 lessons from their entrepreneurial workbook, with either a parent, teacher, youth organization leader, or other adult mentor supervising. At the conclusions of the lessons, they are prepared to open their first business… a lemonade stand. Local businesses and banks volunteer to empower these kids by making them a $50 loan and helping them set up their business. By the time they come to talk with the "banker," they have a business plan and a set of goals as to what they will do with them profits they make. Watching these kids respond to adults asking them about their plans brings joy to your heart.
On May 4, in some 35 cities across the country, 200,000 young people will be building lemonade stands and trying to turn a profit. If you drive by a lemonade stand, stop and support America's future entrepreneurs. If you are in one of those 35 cities (click here to find out), make a point to find a few lemonade stands and support America's future. And if you don't have a lemonade stand in your city, consider following in the footsteps of local heroes (and my good friends) Reid Walker and Robert Alpert, who decided to launch Lemonade Day here in Dallas. This should be a spring ritual in every city in the country.
Buoyed by the kids and their enthusiasm, I then went to dinner with Richard Fisher and Woody Brock and a few other associates of Ray Hunt, who hosted us for a fabulous and thought-provoking session, talking economics, geopolitics, and even a little politics. There was an interesting mix of pessimism and optimism in the room about the future of our country, but there was not a person who was not concerned with the direction in which we are headed. Gerald Turner, the president of SMU, talked to us about how fiscally conservative and socially liberal his students are. That kind of mirrors my own children. The world is changing faster, both technologically and demographically, than many of us in the Boomer generation are comfortable with. But we'd better get used to it.
It's been a tumultuous last few days, and tomorrow morning I have to leave early for San Francisco to do a video shoot with my partners at Altegris, before going right back to the airport and flying home to speak to a local group of investment advisers and brokers brought together by Peak Capital Management. It is late and time to hit the send button, because the alarm clock will go off early. Have a great week
Your wondering where all the time goes analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the firstname.lastname@example.com
Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2014
Optimism at the FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has continuously been overly optimistic regarding its expectations for economic growth in the United States since the last recession ended in 2009. If their annual forecasts had been realized over the past four years, then at the end of 2013 the U.S. economy should have been approximately $1 trillion, or 6%, larger. The preponderance of research suggests that the FOMC has been incorrect in its presumption of the effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) on boosting economic growth. This faulty track record calls into question their latest prediction of 2.9% real GDP growth for 2014 and 3.4% for 2015.
A major reason for the FOMC's overly optimistic forecast for economic growth and its incorrect view of the effectiveness of quantitative easing is the reliance on the so-called "wealth effect", described as a change in consumer wealth which results in a change in consumer spending. In an opinion column for The Washington Post on November 5, 2010, then FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke wrote, "...higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." Former FOMC chairman Alan Greenspan in a CNBC interview on Feb. 15, 2013 said, "The stock market is the key player in the game of economic growth." This year, in the January 20 issue of Time Magazine, the current FOMC chair, Janet Yellen said, "And part of the [economic stimulus] comes through higher house and stock prices, which causes people with homes and stocks to spend more, which causes jobs to be created throughout the economy and income to go up throughout the economy."
FOMC leaders may feel justified in taking such a position based upon the FRB/US, a large- scale econometric model. In part of this model, employed by the FOMC in their decision making, household consumption behavior is expressed as a function of total wealth as well as other variables. The model predicts that an increase in wealth of one dollar will boost consumer spending by five to ten cents (see page 8-9 "Housing Wealth and Consumption" by Matteo Iacoviello, International Finance Discussion Papers, #1027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2011). Even at the lower end of their model's range this wealth effect, if it were valid, would be a powerful factor in spurring economic growth.
After examining much of the latest scholarly research, and conducting in house research on the link between household wealth and spending, we found the wealth effect to be much weaker than the FOMC presumes. In fact, it is difficult to document any consistent impact with most of the research pointing to a spending increase of only one cent per one dollar rise in wealth at best. Some studies even indicate that the wealth effect is only an interesting theory and cannot be observed in practice.
The wealth effect has been both a justification for quantitative easing and a root cause of consistent overly optimistic growth expectations by the FOMC. The research cited below suggests that the concept of a wealth effect is in fact deeply flawed. It is unfortunate that the FOMC has relied on this flawed concept to experiment with over $3 trillion in asset purchases and continues to use it as the basis for what we believe are overly optimistic growth expectations.
Consumer Wealth and Consumer Spending
Many episodes of rising and falling financial and housing asset wealth have occurred throughout history. The question is whether these periods of wealth changes are associated in a consistent and reliable way with changes in consumer spending. We examined, separately, percent changes in real consumption expenditures per capita against percent changes in the real S&P 500 index (financial wealth) and against percent changes in Robert Shiller's real home price index (housing wealth). If economic relationships are valid they should work for all time periods, regardless of highly different idiosyncratic conditions, as opposed to an isolated subset of historical experience. As such, we conducted our analysis from 1930 through 2013, the entire time period for which all variables were available.
Financial Wealth. Chart 1 is a scatter diagram of current percent changes in both real per capita personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the preferred measure of spending, and the real S&P 500 stock price index. It is made up of 84 dots, which constitutes a robust sample. Over our sample period, as with most extremely long periods, time will tend to link economic variables to each other; population is a key factor that can cause such an association. By expressing consumption in per capita terms, trending has been reduced, and in turn, an artificially overstated degree of correlation has been avoided.
If financial wealth drives consumer spending, an unambiguous positively sloped line should be evident on this scatter diagram. Larger gains in the S&P 500 would be associated with faster increases in spending; conversely, declines in the S&P 500 would be tied to lower spending. If there was a strong positive correlation, the large gains in stock prices would be associated with strong gains in spending, and they would fall in the upper right quadrant of the graph. In addition, sizeable declines in the S&P would be associated with large decreases in consumer spending, and the dots would fall in the lower left quadrant, resulting in an upward sloping line. For the relationship to be stable and dependable the dots should be packed in an around the trend line. This is clearly not the case. The trend line through the dots is positive, but the observations in the upper left quadrant of the graph and those in the lower right exhibit a negative rather than positive correlation. Furthermore, the dots are not clustered close to the trend line. The goodness of fit (coefficient of determination) of 0.27 is statistically significant; however, the slope of the line is minimally positive. This suggests that an approximate one dollar increase in wealth will boost real per capita PCE by less than one cent, far less than even the lower band of the effect in the Fed's model.
Theoretically, lagged changes are preferred because when current or coincidental changes in economic variables are correlated the coefficients may be biased due to some other factor not covered by the empirical estimation. Also, lags give households time to adjust to their change in wealth. As such, we correlated the current percent change in real per capita PCE against current changes as well as one- and two-year lagged changes (expressed as a three-year moving average) in the S&P 500. The lags did not improve the goodness of fit as the coefficient of determination fell to 0.21. An increased dollar of wealth, however, still resulted in a one cent increase in consumption. We then correlated current percent change in real per capita PCE with only lagged changes in the real S&P 500 for the two prior years (expressed as a two-year moving average), and the relationship completely fell apart as the goodness of fit fell to a statistically insignificant 0.06.
Housing Wealth. Chart 2 is a second scatter diagram, relating current percent changes in real home prices to current percent changes in real per capita PCE. Once again, the trend line does have a small positive slope, but there are so many observations in the upper left quadrant that the coefficient of determination does not meet robust tests for statistical significance. The dots are even more dispersed from the trend line than in the prior scatter diagram.
As with the analysis on financial wealth, when current changes in consumption were correlated against the lagged changes in home prices (both the three-year moving average and the two-year moving average), the goodness of fit deteriorated significantly and was not statistically significant in either case.
Correlations, or the lack thereof, indicated by these scatter diagrams do not prove causation. Nevertheless, economic theory offers an explanation for the poor correlation. If a person has an appreciated asset and wishes to increase spending, one option is to sell the asset, capture the gain and buy something else. However, the funds to make the new purchase comes from the buyer of the asset. Thus, when financial assets are sold, money balances increase for the seller but fall for the buyer. The person with an appreciated asset could choose to borrow against that asset. Since new debt is current spending in lieu of future spending, the debt option may only provide a temporary boost to economic activity. To avoid an accentuated business cycle, debt must generate an income stream to repay principal and interest. Otherwise any increase in debt to convert wealth gains into consumer spending may merely add to cyclical volatility without producing any lasting benefit.
Scholarly Research
Scholarly research has debated the impact of financial and housing wealth on consumer spending as well. The academic research on financial wealth is relatively consistent; it has very little impact on consumption. In "Financial Wealth Effect: Evidence from Threshold Estimation" (Applied Economic Letters, 2011), Sherif Khalifa, Ousmane Seck and Elwin Tobing found "a threshold income level of almost $130,000, below which the financial wealth effect is insignificant, and above which the effect is 0.004." This means a one dollar rise in wealth would, in time, boost consumption by less than one-half of a penny. Similarly, in "Wealth Effects Revisited 1975- 2012," Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller (Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper #1884, December 2012) write, "The numerical results vary somewhat with different econometric specifications, and so any numerical conclusion must be tentative. We find at best weak evidence of a link between stock market wealth and consumption." This team looked at quarterly observations during the 17-year period from 1982 through 1999 and the 37-year period from 1975 through the spring quarter of 2012.
The research on housing wealth is more divided. In the same paper referenced above, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller write, "In contrast, we do find strong evidence that variations in housing market wealth have important effects upon consumption." These findings differ from the findings of various other economists. In "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect" (NBER Working Paper #15075, June 2009), Charles Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer and William Miles write, "Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by changes in housing consumption, meaning that unexpected shocks in housing wealth should have little effect on non- housing consumption."
Furthermore, R. Glenn Hubbard and Anthony Patrick O'Brien (Macroneconomics, Fourth edition, 2013, page 381) provide a highly cogent summary of the aforementioned research by Charles Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer and William Miles. They argue that consumers "own houses primarily so they can consume the housing services a home provides. Only consumers who intend to sell their current house and buy a smaller one – for example, 'empty nesters' whose children have left home – will benefit from an increase in housing prices. But taking the population as a whole, the number of empty nesters may be smaller than the number of first time home buyers plus the number of homeowners who want to buy larger houses. These two groups are hurt by rising home prices."
Amir Sufi, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, also indicates that the effect of housing wealth is much smaller than assumed in the policy models and earlier empirical research. Dr. Sufi calculates that an increase of one dollar of housing wealth may yield as little as one cent of extra spending ("Will Housing Save the U.S. Economy?", April 2013, Chicago Booth Economic Outlook event). This is in line with a 2013 study by Sherif Khalifa, Ousmane Seck and Elwin Tobing ("Housing Wealth Effect: Evidence from Threshold Estimation", The Journal of Housing Economics). These economists found that a threshold income level of $74,046 had a wealth coefficient that rounded to one cent. Income levels between $74,046 and $501,000 had a two cent coefficient, and incomes above $501,000 had a statistically insignificant coefficient.
In total, the majority of the research is seemingly unequivocal in its conclusion. The wealth effect (financial and housing) is barely operative. As such, it is interesting to note its actual impact in 2013.
Where Was the Wealth Effect in 2013?
If the wealth effect was as powerful as the FOMC believes, consumer spending should have turned in a stellar performance last year. In 2013 equities and housing posted strong gains. On a yearly average basis, the real S&P 500 stock market index increase was 17.7%, and the real Case Shiller Home Price Index increase was 9.1%. The combined gain of these wealth proxies was 26.8%, the eighth largest in the 84 years of data. The real per capital PCE gain of just 1.2% ranked 58th of 84. The difference between the two was the fifth largest in the 84 cases. Such a huge discrepancy in relative performance in 2013, occurring as it did in the fourth year of an economic expansion, raises serious doubts about the efficacy of the wealth effect (Chart 3).
In econometrics, theoretical propositions must be empirically verifiable. Researchers using numerous statistical procedures examining various sample periods should be able to identify at least some consistent patterns. This is not the case with the wealth effect. Regardless if examining a simple scatter diagram or something far more sophisticated, the wealth effect is weak and inconsistent. The powerful wealth coefficients imbedded in the FRB/US model have not been supported by independent research. To quote Chris Low, Chief Economist of FTN (FTN Financial, Economic Weekly, March 21, 2014), "There may not be a wealth effect at all. If there is a wealth effect, it is very difficult to pin down ..." Since the FOMC began quantitative easing in 2009, its balance sheet has increased more than $3 trillion. This increase may have boosted wealth, but the U.S. economy received no meaningful benefit. Furthermore, the FOMC has no idea what the ultimate outcome of such an increase will be or what a return to a 'normal' balance sheet might entail. Given all of this, we do not see any evidence for economic growth as robust at the FOMC predicts.
Without a wealth effect, the stock market is not the "key player" in the economy, and no "virtuous circle" runs through the stock market. We reiterate our view that nominal GDP will rise just 3% this year, down from 3.4% in 2013. M2 growth in the latest twelve months was 5.8%, but velocity should decline by at least 3% and limit nominal GDP to 3% or less.
The Flatter Yield Curve: An Opportunity for Treasury Bond Investors
The Fed has indicated that the federal funds rate could begin to rise in the next couple of years, and the Treasury market has moderately anticipated this event. Similar to the 2004-2005 federal funds rate cycle, long before the federal funds rate increased short Treasury rates began their ascent (Chart 4). Interestingly, once the federal funds rate did begin to rise in 2004, long Treasury rates fell over the next two years. From May of 2004 until Feb. 2006 the federal funds rate increased by 350 basis point (bps) and the five-year note increased by 80 bps, yet the 30-year bond fell by 84 bps as inflation expectations fell. If the Fed follows through with its forecast and short rates rise, the dampening effect on inflation expectations should again cause long rates to fall. On the other hand, should economic activity continue to moderate then the downward pressure on inflation will continue. The prospect for lower Treasury yields appears favorable.
Van R. Hoisington
Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
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subset: commoncrawl


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A Gold Standard in 10 Minutes
You don't need bullion to have a gold standard...
SOMETIMES people ask me: "How do we transition to a gold standard system?" People think it's really difficult, writes Nathan Lewis of New World Economics.
Actually, it can be very easy. The easiest, simplest, fully-operational form of a gold standard system could be implemented in ten minutes. It doesn't cost anything, and doesn't require any gold bullion.
I don't think it is the best system. But, it is fast and easy, and fully operational.
The better classical economists have always known that gold bullion itself is not really necessary for a gold standard system. Gold is the "standard," in other words, the "standard of value." It is just something you compare against.
David Ricardo wrote in 1817:
"It is on this principle that paper money circulates: the whole charge for paper money may be considered as seignorage. Though it has no intrinsic value, yet, by limiting its quantity, its value in exchange is as great as an equal denomination of [gold] coin, or of bullion in that coin..."
It will be seen that it is not necessary that the paper money should be payable in specie to secure its value; it is only necessary that its quantity should be regulated according to the value of the metal which is declared to be the standard."
In other words, when the value of the currency is too high compared to the standard, you increase the supply. When the value of the currency is too low compared to the standard, you decrease the supply. It really is that simple.
Here's John Stuart Mill, on the same topic in 1848:
"If, therefore, the issue of inconvertible paper were subjected to strict rules, one rule being that whenever bullion rose above the Mint price, the issues should he contracted until the market price of bullion and the Mint price were again in accordance, such a currency would not be subject to any of the evils usually deemed inherent in an inconvertible paper."
The Federal Reserve has the responsibility today of increasing or decreasing the base money supply. Only the Federal Reserve can do this.
The Federal Reserve already increases and decreases the base money supply on a daily basis. However, this is not done according to a gold standard system operating framework. Rather, it is done according to an interest rate target framework, or today a "quantitative easing" framework.
To implement a gold standard system — in ten minutes — you simply have the Federal Reserve stop managing the base money supply according to an interest rate/quantitative easing framework, and start managing it according to a gold standard framework. All this means is that the base money supply is adjusted at different times, and in different quantities.
To increase the base money supply, the Federal Reserve typically buys something, usually a bond of some sort. This is paid for by newly-created base money. Thus, the total amount of base money in existence increases.
To decrease the base money supply, the Federal Reserve typically sells something. The money received in payment disappears, which shrinks the base money supply.
Unfortunately, although this method is certainly quick and easy, it is also prone to eventual corruption and failure. This is not because the basic methods don't work – they do – but rather because it is all too easy for the managers of the system to deviate from what they are supposed to be doing.
Immediately after confirming that such a system is indeed possible, John Stuart Mill then describes its inherent problems. This is an extended passage, but he puts it as succinctly and clearly as anybody can:
"But also such a system of currency would have no advantages sufficient to recommend it to adoption. An inconvertible currency, regulated by the price of bullion, would conform exactly, in all its variations, to a convertible one; and the only advantage gained, would be that of exemption from the necessity of keeping any reserve of the precious metals; which is not a very important consideration, especially as a government, so long as its good faith is not suspected, needs not keep so large a reserve as private issuers, being not so liable to great and sudden demands, since there never can be any real doubt of its solvency.
"Against this small advantage is to be set, in the first place, the possibility of fraudulent tampering with the price of bullion for the sake of acting on the currency; in the manner of the fictitious sales of corn, to influence the averages, so much and so justly complained of while the corn laws were in force. But a still stronger consideration is the importance of adhering to a simple principle, intelligible to the most untaught capacity. Everybody can understand convertibility; every one sees that what can be at any moment exchanged for five pounds, is worth five pounds.
"Regulation by the price of bullion is a more complex idea, and does not recommend itself through the same familiar associations. There would be nothing like the same confidence, by the public generally, in an inconvertible currency so regulated, as in a convertible one: and the most instructed person might reasonably doubt whether such a rule would be as likely to be inflexibly adhered to. The grounds of the rule not being so well understood by the public, opinion would probably not enforce it with as much rigidity, and, in any circumstances of difficulty, would be likely to turn against it; while to the government itself a suspension of convertibility would appear a much stronger and more extreme measure, than a relaxation of what might possibly be considered a somewhat artificial rule.
"There is therefore a great preponderance of reasons in favour of a convertible, in preference to even the best regulated inconvertible currency. The temptation to over-issue, in certain financial emergencies, is so strong, that nothing is admissible which can tend, in however slight a degree, to weaken the barriers that restrain it."
Mastery of these concepts means understanding all the options. Ricardo understood them. Mill understood them. We need more people today with the kind of mastery that people had in the mid-nineteenth century. The gold standard system of the time – the most perfect monetary system ever created– was a reflection of their mastery.
This article originally appeared at Forbes.
Buying gold? Make it safer, cheaper and easier with BullionVault...


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Source: Security Focus
Linux Kernel Hardening
by Anton Chuvakin, Ph.D.
last updated January 23, 2002
This article will cover the issues of Linux hardening, with a specific focus on kernel hardening and its use on production systems. Several kernel-hardening approaches and their usability will be analyzed.
Is Linux secure? The question is much less useful, than 'Is Linux "securable"?' The answer to the latter is a definite yes. Being securable means that Linux can be made more secure (to whatever degree necessary) by applying a clearly defined sequence of steps that always produces the same result, and that can be automated and applied to systems that have been in operation for a long time. It would be ideal to be able to make securing systems understandable by regular system administrators who don't have formal security training. However, the last requirement might be pushing it a bit, since security will likely always require expertise.
Linux can be made more secure by hardening the system. It is beyond the scope of this article to discuss system hardening; however, there are a number of system hardening resources available, such as:
- http://www.sans.org/infosecFAQ/linux/hardening.htm
- http://www.enteract.com/~lspitz/linux.html
- http://www.linuxsecurity.com/resourc...ART/index.html
- http://www.linuxsecurity.com/resourc...hat/index.html)
There are also utilities available, such as Bastille linux. The latter automate the hardening process with detailed explanations on each step. Hardened Linux distributions such as EnGarde Linux and Immunix are also available. Typical steps that are taken during the system hardening include:
- Minimizing installed software
- Patching the system
- Securing filesystem permissions and S*ID binaries
- Improving login and user security
- Setting some physical and boot security controls
- Securing the daemons via network access controls
- Increasing logging and audit information
- Configuring vendor supplied security software (IDS, host firewall)
It is curious to note that hardening is not just a matter of fixing bad defaults the vendors throw at users. It is believed that vendors ship systems with mostly open default setting based on customer feedback. Thus hardening should be viewed not as "fighting the evil vendor", but rather as optimizing the system based on local business and security needs.
Hardening is also a great example of defense in depth. Such a Linux system will be much harder to crack and utilize for nefarious purposes. There are examples of Linux servers running for years without a successful penetration and with no firewall. Their reliability is due to a professionally hardened OS.
However, system hardening appears to be lacking in several aspects. For example, buggy SUID programs and network application will still give the attacker root and user access. If attacker gets "root", there is positively no way to stop them from anything on a normal Linux system. In addition, basic Unix access controls will not stop authorized system users from doing various bad things (port scanning, accessing unauthorized resources, running password crackers or banned network applications), which cannot be prohibited using 'access control' without rendering the system unusable. And while hardening, improved logging, audit and intrusion detection will complicate rootkit deployment by attackers, kernel-level rootkits can easily overcome those preventive measures.
To combat these threats, kernel hardening is needed. Kernel hardening can be defined as enabling additional kernel-level security mechanisms to improve the security of the system, while keeping system close to traditional Linux. What are some approaches to kernel hardening? Current Linux kernel security can be tightened a bit without adding any new features or patches. One can compile the kernel with no module support (in this case, most kernel rootkits cannot function) and some security-related kernel options can be turned on.
The full article can be wieved here.


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Grey Import Products from outside the EEA & Switzerland
Sony has been made aware that a number of retailers import genuine Sony goods from outside the European Economic Area (EEA) & Switzerland for sale to EEA & Swiss consumers. Often these products are intended for the US or Asian markets that may require different standards and legal compliance.
If you are a resident in the EEA or Switzerland and buy a product from one of these retailers or purchase a product outside of the EEA & Switzerland, we would like you to be aware that there are risks associated with buying what is termed as a "Grey Import". A grey (or parallel) import may be described as a non-counterfeit product sourced from outside the EEA & Switzerland.
EEA & Swiss consumers may find that grey import products do not meet their expectations because the products were not configured and tailored for their local market. For example:
- They may not have a CE mark which is required under European laws and shows (i.a.) that the product meets European safety requirements and can therefore be placed on the European market.
- Grey imports are not covered by the Sony EEA & Switzerland repair policy and therefore service support will not be covered by the Sony manufacturing guarantee*. This also means there is no in-warranty coverage even for dead on arrival products, at an EEA or Swiss repair centre. You can use the following link to learn more about our warranty policy:
https://services.sony.co.uk/support/en/warranty/general. - Given that Sony does not intend to place grey import products on the EEA & Swiss market, such products are ineligible to benefit from European promotional campaigns.
- The box may not contain an EEA or Swiss power supply (adapter/cord) or may potentially include a power supply that was not provided by Sony and therefore Sony was unable to run respective quality checks.
- Products and accessories which were intended for different countries/regions might not be compatible with each other.
You can use the following link to find an authorised Sony dealer near you:
* Tourist models which have a Tourist Limited Warranty Card may be covered by the Sony manufacturing guarantee even if they were purchased outside the EEA & Switzerland.


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zsync is a file transfer program. It allows you to download a file from a remote server, where you have a copy of an older version of the file on your computer already. zsync downloads only the new parts of the file. It uses the same algorithm as rsync. However, where rsync is designed for synchronising data from one computer to another within an organisation, zsync is designed for file distribution, with one file on a server to be distributed to thousands of downloaders. zsync requires no special server software — just a web server to host the files — and imposes no extra load on the server, making it ideal for large scale file distribution.
zsync is open source, distributed under version 2 of the Artistic License. Feedback, bugs reports and patches are welcome.
Advantages of zsync
zsync fills a gap in the technology available for large-scale file distribution. Three key points explain why zsync provides a genuinely new technique for file distribution:
- Client-side rsync — zsync uses the rsync algorithm, but runs it on the client side, thus avoiding the high server load associated with rsync.
- Rsync over HTTP — zsync provides transfers that are nearly as efficient as rsync -z or cvsup, without the need to run a special server application. All that is needed is an HTTP/1.1-compliant web server. So it works through firewalls and on shared hosting accounts, and gives less security worries.
- Handling for compressed files — rsync is ineffective on compressed files, unless they are compressed with a patched version of gzip. zsync has special handling for gzipped files, which enables update transfers of files which are distributed in compressed form.
The special handling of compressed files is, as far as I know, entirely new and unique to zsync. The combination of client-side rsync and HTTP is also unique to zsync, to the best of my knowledge.
I have put up technical papers. There is a current paper, which reflects zsync's latest development, and which I update with new figures as I run new tests and comparisons; there are also older snapshots of the technical paper, included for reference and citation.
Practical Engineering
zsync is only useful if people offer zsync downloads. I have made a deliberate effort to make zsync simple and reliable in use, and easy to deploy.
- Single meta-file — zsync downloads are offered by building a .zsync file, which contains the meta-data needed by zsync. This file contains the precalculated checksums for the rsync algorithm; it is generated on the server, once, and is then used by any number of downloaders.
- Easy file format — .zsync files have a simple text header, so they can be edited with any good editor to change details like the download URL.
- Flexible use — The .zsync contains either a relative URL to the full content of the file, so you can either generate and offer it on the same server as hosts the full download (and so it can be distributed like any other file onto mirror sites). Or it can contains one or more absolute URLs (the client will try multiple URLs if necessary to find the content), meaning the .zsync can be hosted on a different server entirely; in fact, the .zsync can be generated and offered by a third party, while still leaving most of the download to the original distribution site.
Because zsync is a file distribution method, it is useful only when people offer .zsyncs for downloads. It's a little hard to demonstrate the program and build up a user base because of this. So I am suggesting a number of uses for zsync on the client page; these include some zsync downloads that I am offering downloads myself to give some immediate use to the program.
If you are a server operator looking to use zsync for file distribution, see the server page, which gives some guidance on how to create and offer .zsync files.
Current Status
I am fairly happy with how zsync works so far, but I am still open to new ideas and optimisations. I have made sure that the format is fairly extensible in a compatible way; I expect that users of the current version of zsync will not experience compatibility problems with later versions for the foreseeable future.
I am also looking to freeze the interface between the zsync library and the current command-line client; I will at some point split zsync into a dynamic library, which implements the format and allows it to be embedded into other programs, and the client program. This to some extent depends on whether anyone is interested in embedding zsync into other programs; if I don't hear of anyone intending to do so, this might wait until I have a use for it myself.
I am interested in hearing feedback about zsync. Bugs, crashes, and feature suggestions are welcome. Perhaps most of all I am interested in hearing about uses of zsync: I would like to hear about any serious use of zsync, because knowing how people are using it will affect which features I work on. If there are features that you need to enable a particular use, then I would like to hear about that too, particularly anyone that is interested in using zsync as a library as part of a larger program; please note that support for multiple files has already been asked about many times, but due to lack of time I am not likely to work on this in the near future.


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- Home
- Government
- Departments
- Fire Department
Fire Department
Our Mission:
- To protect the Citizens of Texarkana and their property from the dangers of fire and other hazardous conditions through public education, fire prevention, code enforcement, and professional emergency response.
- To prepare ourselves for response through regular, effective training.
- To protect ourselves through an effective safety program.
Station Information
Name | Address |
Fire Administration | 919 Elm St. |
Station One | 524 W. Third St. |
Station Three | 5706 Richmond Rd. |
Station Five | 306 S. Kenwood St. |
Station Seven | 3101 S. Lake Dr. |
Station Nine | 4315 Summerhill Rd. |
Training Field | 1101 W. 21st St. |
Department Information
The Texarkana Fire Department is divided functionally into three divisions: Administration, Operations, and Building Life Safety Division. All uniformed personnel in all divisions are certified through the Texas Commission on Fire Protection as structural fire protection personnel. All personnel are certified through the Texas Department of State Health Services to provide emergency medical care. Most are certified as Emergency Medical Technicians-EMT, while a few hold other levels of certification, including, EMT-Intermediate, EMT-Paramedic, and Licensed Paramedic.The Administration Division consists of the Fire Chief / Emergency Management Coordinator and an Administrative Assistant. This division is responsible for the overall administration of the department. Its major objective is to provide the leadership and administrative support to allow other divisions to accomplish their goals.
The Operations Division provides emergency and non-emergency response services to the citizens of Texarkana, protecting them and their property from the danger of fire and other hazardous conditions. This division operates five fire stations operating with three Quints, two Engines, two Brush Trucks, a support vehicle and one Battalion Chief, providing fire suppression, rescue / extrication and first responder emergency medical services. Emergency medical transport is provided by a privately operated service, LifeNet, Inc., which is based in Texarkana. Personnel in this division work 24 hour shifts, with three shifts providing continuous coverage. There are 72 authorized positions in this division. Each shift is supervised by a Battalion Chief and each station by a station Captain.
Contact Us:
Administration Office
919 Elm St.
Texarkana, TX 75501
Ph: 903-798-3994
Fx: 903-793-4731
Hours of Operation:
Monday-Thursday 7am - 5pm
Friday 7am-12pm
Contact Us
Administration Office
220 Texas Blvd.
Texarkana, TX 75501
Ph: 903-798-3994
Fx: 903-793-4731
Hours of Operation
Monday-Friday - 7am - 5pm
Staff Directory


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IFLA's World Library Information Congress 2014 in Lyon, France offers a modest-sized but busy exhibit hall. The hall opened Monday to a large crowd sampling new database offerings as well as information about associations and vendors from across the world. ALA's booth was packed for the opening, and has remained busy.
Custom coffees, pastries, and free books lured many visitors to the My French Library exhibit.
This chair, which muffles most sounds outside the cocoon it creates, was popular among attendees looking for a place of quiet in the exhibit hall.


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Since I am not an Exchange admin I figured that I would throw this out to anyone here who is.
It is my understanding that OWA uses a different implementation of WebDAV which is in no way connected to the WebDAV implementation that is installed by default with the Windows OS (on an IIS box). If this truly is the case, has anyone safely turned off the OS implementation of WebDAV on front-end OWA boxes without causing issues? I could be completely offbase here as my e-mail server experience is only with *nix systems.
Thanks in advance


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Mele Kalikimaka is the thing to say... | by Pat
As expected, the Hawai'i Bowl is ecstatic that Notre Dame, even at 6-6, fell into their lap.
Calling it a "Christmas wish" come true, the Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl has assembled the most anticipated pairing of its seven-year history, matching the University of Hawai'i football team with tradition-rich Notre Dame for the Dec. 24 game at Aloha Stadium.Notre Dame fans on the other hand seem rather divided on the choice for a number of reasons. The first involves the very fact that the game is being played on Christmas Eve. Add in the cost of flying the team and assorted staff out to Hawai'i, the proximity to finals, and the displeasure of a 6-6 ND team even going to a bowl game and it should be no surprise that many fans are grumbling about the decision to accept the Hawai'i bowl bid.
The Honolulu Advertiser article linked above does a nice job running down ND's bowl options as the season finished up.
But the Pac-10, in an uncharacteristically down year, was struggling to meet its obligation to send a sixth selection and it was feared the Hawai'i Bowl might have to look to a less recognizable representative from the much-less prestigious Mid-American or Sun Belt conferences to find UH an opponent.The article goes on to talk about ND making sure to finish up finals before flying out for the game and the fact they are already expecting to lose money on the trip. There may be more public comments on the decision, likely starting today, so we'll wait for those and any more facts that might surface before chiming in.
At that point, the Honolulu-based Matlin lobbied the game's owner, ESPN Regional Television of Charlotte, N.C., to lay the groundwork for the long-shot possibility of Notre Dame, enlisting Derzis, ERT vice president, in the cause.
But, Matlin said, "a lot had to happen" in a process that others involved have compared to a "root canal."
Slowly, it unfolded.
The Irish were stunned by 3-9 Syracuse, 24-23, removing them from consideration from the Konica Minolta Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla. Notre Dame's 38-3 loss to Southern California coupled with Louisville's 63-14 loss to Rutgers opened the way for Pittsburgh to represent the Big East in the Brut Sun Bowl instead of the Irish.
Then, the Pac-10 was able to field only five bowl-eligible teams because Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State all suffered crucial late losses and were unable to get to 6-6.
That made the Irish, at 6-6, an at-large team available to negotiate once the remaining teams with winning records, Western Michigan (9-3) and Louisiana Tech (7-5), were placed. Under NCAA rules, all teams with winning records must be accommodated before those with .500 marks.
The Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., Motor City Bowl in Detroit and Texas Bowl in Houston joined the Hawai'i Bowl as the Irish's options over the weekend. All put a full-court press on Notre Dame and all offered major TV exposure except Texas, which has an NFL Network deal.
Irish spokesman John Heisler said officials researched the various bowls and asked the players for input. They reportedly strongly favored the Hawai'i Bowl (BGS ed. they picked Christmas in Waikiki over Detroit? Shocking!), but Heisler said a vote wasn't taken.


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Mawa Kachori is an exotic dessert. This is a delicacy from state of Rajasthan. Rajasthan is known for their rich food and culture. Pastry filled with aromatic mixture of mawa and nuts makes a very festive dessert.
This recipe will make 18 Kachories.
- 1cup all-purpose flour (maida, plain flour)
- 2 tablespoons clarified butter (ghee)
- Approx. 1/2 cup of lukewarm water as needed
- 1/2 cup heavy cream or whipping cream
- 1 cup milk powder
- 1/4 cup mixed nuts (almonds, pistachios coarsely ground)
- 1/4 teaspoon crushed cardamom
- 3 tablespoon sugar
Note: If you are using mawa use ¾ cup of mawa instead cream and powder
Oil to fry
- 1cup sugar
- 1/2 cup water
- 1/8 teaspoon crushed cardamom
- Few strands of saffron
- Mix flour, and clarified butter in a bowl, making firm soft adding water slowly as needed. Knead the dough until the dough becomes soft and pliable.
- Set the dough aside and cover it with a damp cloth. Let the dough sit for at least ten minutes.
Boil the sugar and water on medium heat, as sugar comes to boil add saffron, and cardamom on medium heat until syrup is about one thread or 220 degrees (Fahrenheit) on a candy thermometer. Set aside.
- Mix the cream and milk powder in a frying pan. Cook on medium heat until it becomes consistency of soft dough, this should take about 3-4 minutes. Stir continuously so the mixture does not burn on the bottom of the pan. This mixture is known mava.
- Next add nuts mixture, sugar, and cardamom powder to mawa. Mix together well and cook for about 2 more minutes until mixture is consistency of soft dough. Keep aside.
- After cooling, the mixture will become drier but still should be lightly moist.
Making Kachories
- Knead the dough for a minute.
- Divide the dough into about 18 equal parts.
- Roll each ball into about 2-inch diameter.
- Take one of the rolled dough in your palm and place about 1 tablespoon of filling in the center. Pull the edges of the dough to wrap the filling. Proceed to make all 30 balls.
- Let the filled balls sit for 3 to 4 minutes before pressing.
- In the frying pan heat the oil on medium high, frying pan should have about 1-1/2 inches of oil.
- Set the filled balls on a clean and dry surface with the seam facing up. Using the base of your palm, slowly flatten them into about 3 inches circle.
- To check if oil is ready put a little piece of dough in the oil. It should sizzle, and come up slowly.
- Slowly drop the Kachories in the oil, do not over crowd the kachories in frying pan, fry them on medium heat.
- After they are puff, slowly turn them over.
- It will take about 5-6 minutes to fry. Fry until golden-brown on all sides.
- If the kachories are fried on high heat, they will get soft and will not be crispy.
- Just before serving drizzle the kachori with about 2 tablespoons of hot syrup. Garnish them with left over filling or sliced pistachios.
- Kachories can also be served without syrup.


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Take a ride on the wild side.
June (Sofia Mali), an optimistic, imaginative girl, discovers an incredible amusement park called Wonderland hidden in the woods. The park is full of fantastical rides and talking, funny animals - only the park is in disarray. June soon discovers the park came from her imagination and she's the only one who can fix it, so she bands together with the animals to save this magical place and bring back the wonder in Wonderland.


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In my previous article found here I reported on Dividend Champions that I felt were fairly valued. In contrast to Dividend Champions that have raised their dividends every year for 25 consecutive years, Dividend Contenders have raised their dividends every year for 10 to 24 years. Therefore, I feel that the Dividend Contenders list also provides numerous excellent candidates for a retirement portfolio interested in generating a constantly-increasing income stream. Moreover, I believe there are many candidates on the Contenders' list that also meet the seven criteria of quality and quantity that the venerable Ben Graham expressed. The seven criteria are repeated here as follows:
- Adequate Size of the Enterprise
- A Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition
- Earnings Stability
- Dividend Record
- Earnings Growth
- Moderate Price / Earnings Ratio
- Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets
General Considerations and Thesis
In order to avoid being repetitive, I suggest that the reader refer back to my previous article through the link provided above, in order to review the principles, justifications and primary thesis underpinning both these articles. However, the following summary of the main points that I am articulating will hopefully prove useful.
First and foremost, I believe that retirees can, and should, design and build a portfolio that contains the opportunity of providing an increasing income stream. Perhaps even more importantly, if this process is started early enough, a portfolio can be built that is self-sustaining regarding the distribution of income. In other words, the portfolio can throw off enough cash to meet the retiree's income needs without having to harvest principle. Second, I believe high-quality blue-chip dividend growth stocks can provide a safe and effective vehicle towards achieving those goals. Moreover, I further believe in controlling risk through diversification and the prudent adherence to fair valuation are imperatives.
Finally, I favor fixed income when yields are high enough to generate an adequate level of current income. But unfortunately, I do not feel that that situation currently exists. Therefore, I am comfortable suggesting that the risk profile of fixed income is currently aberrantly high, and therefore, temporarily suggest avoiding investing in new ones, in favor of the higher-yielding blue-chip dividend paying stalwarts. In the future, when the levels of interest rates change in favor of higher yield, the portfolio could be rebalanced if the retiree prefers.
However, I want to emphasize that I consider the current fixed income situation as both extraordinary and temporary. Consequently, when the time comes when interest rates do normalize, I would once again support their inclusion in a well-diversified retirement portfolio. Because, for this to be true, the current yields on fixed income would be significantly higher than equities, which is normal, but not the case today. Therefore, the retiree could get more current yield with fixed income, while utilizing an appropriate blend of equities as the driver of growth and as an income inflation hedge.
Fairly Valued Dividend Contenders
Ben Graham's criteria 6 (Moderate Price / Earnings Ratio) and 7 (Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets) primarily relate to valuation. As I expressed in my first article and again here, I believe that valuation is a critically important component of a good common stock investment. No matter how much I like a company, I am never willing to pay more than I believe the stock is worth. As it did in the first article, I would like to share words of wisdom from Ben Graham's most famous pupil Warren Buffett on the subject of valuation:
"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."
The Dividend Contenders list currently has 183 names on it. To narrow the list down, I have hand screened the Dividend Contenders one company at a time, as I previously did with the Dividend Champions, looking for those candidates that I believed best exemplified Ben Graham's criteria, which simultaneously could be bought at fair value or below. It should be noted that my selection process with the Contenders' list was also somewhat arbitrary where I excluded companies which did not possess the consistent records of earnings that I personally prefer.
Through this process I have identified 88 of the 183 Dividend Challengers that I felt meet Ben Graham's criteria and are simultaneously trading at fair value or below. Although I believe that many of these Dividend Contenders might be worthy candidates, this list is offered as a precursor to a more comprehensive due diligence process. Also, because the market prices stocks so dynamically, valuations could moderately change between the time that this article was authored and current time.
I believe there are many good investments on this list of 88. However, some are more growth oriented, while others are more income oriented. Therefore, their relative attraction will be a function of the individual investor's own goals, objectives and risk tolerances. In other words, although I think many of these candidates possess attractive total return potential, as it was with the Dividend Champions, some will be more appealing for their yield, others for growth and yet others for a combination of both.
At this point, I believe it is useful to interject the principle that future returns comprising both capital appreciation and dividend income will be a function of each company's earnings growth rate, and the valuation you pay on purchase. But as I have previously alluded to, some Dividend Contenders grow fast and some do not. Consequently, and as a general rule, assuming that each is bought at a correct valuation, faster earnings growth should produce the highest long-term returns, but do so at the highest relative risk levels. Higher growth is harder to achieve, and therefore more risky. Moreover, higher yield may produce greater total income, but perhaps a lower total return. Therefore, each situation should be examined based on its own characteristics and merits, in concert with your own portfolio goals and objectives.
For additional clarity, I will feature a sample company from each of the cap size subsets. However, since the Dividend Contenders by definition are comprised of companies that have raised their dividends for 10 to 24 consecutive years, some of my sample companies may not meet Ben Graham's criteria of 20 years of dividends.
This will allow me to utilize FAST Graphs™ comprised of 15 years or less. Those of you who read the previous article may recall that I was using 20-year earnings and price correlated graphs. However, the problem is that we only type in every other year due to space constraints on graphs with longer than 15 years of history. With the shorter graphs, each year is not only plotted but all the data is also typed in. Consequently, each year's earnings growth and dividends will be clearly revealed in detail.
Furthermore, as I did in the previous article, I have placed a red circle around the general area of the great recession in order to illustrate how the fear of capital loss due to sinking stock prices is mostly a paper tiger. Also note how little of a long-term impact the great recession, which traumatized so many investors, really had on these strong companies and their longer-term performance. Dividends continued to grow and both stock prices and earnings drops (if any) quickly recovered.
Once again, I remind the reader that all Dividend Contenders are not the same. Some grow faster, some yield more, some are riskier than the others. etc. However, it should also be acknowledged that many Dividend Contenders are in the early stages of developing their dividend legacies, which could also imply more growth and perhaps higher risk than is found with most Dividend Champions.
The Two Primary Stages Of A Retirement Portfolio
Before we begin looking at the specific Contenders, I feel that a few words should be written about what I consider to be the two primary stages of a retirement portfolio - the accumulation phase and the income or distribution phase. The accumulation phase refers to the time prior to when you are actually going to be harvesting income from the portfolio. Obviously, the income distribution phase refers to the time when you are actually taking distributions to live off of, or to supplement your living once you are retired.
Depending on each individual investor's tolerance for risk, as well as such factors as the amount of assets they have or are capable of accumulating and the amount of time they have before retirement, will have a great impact on the type of investments they might choose. However, as a general rule, I will assume that total return investments are more appropriate for the accumulation phase, and slower growing but higher current yielding income investments are more appropriate for the income phase.
But most importantly, a list as large as the Dividend Contenders will be comprised of companies that are most appropriate for either phase of a retirement portfolio. Stated more simply, although all Dividend Contenders share the criteria of the streak of dividend increases of 10 to 24 years, their rates of change of earnings growth, etcetera, are not consistent. Therefore, as I've stated before, not all Dividend Contenders are the same. In addition to what I pointed out in the article on Dividend Champions you will find myriad differences between one Contender to the next. Therefore, as I review the specific examples, I will emphasize which phase of the retirement portfolio they are most appropriate for.
The Large-Cap High Growth Subset for the Accumulation Phase
The first three examples are large-cap above-average dividend growth stocks. The first example is an MLP that could technically fit nicely into either the accumulation phase or the income phase. However, I highlight it under the accumulation phase because of the high total return that it has generated for its stakeholders. Nevertheless, I believe that this company could also selectively be utilized in the income phase.
The next two examples, Qualcomm (QCOM) and CVS Caremark (CVS) are traditional C Corporations with moderate yields and above-average growth potential. Therefore, I suggest that the prospective investor look more towards the future potential yield than on the moderate current yield. More directly stated, these are accumulation phase suggestions that could produce a greater total return and a substantially higher future growth yield (yield on cost).
Kinder Morgan (KMP)
Since our first sample, Kinder Morgan Company, is a master limited partnership we will graph it utilizing our Funds From Operations (FFO) function in lieu of earnings-per-share. The Funds From Operations function is primarily utilized to look at REITs and MLPs. When this function is utilized, the reviewer is actually offered three distinct valuation measurements. The first is the Funds From Operations orange justified valuation line. However, regarding Kinder Morgan specifically, although there is a correlation between price and the orange valuation line, it is not a perfect match. (Note also that unrelated business income tax may present an issue when investing in MLPs in IRAs).
Therefore, FAST Graphs™ calculates a normal P/FFO (dark blue line) that reveals how Mr. Market has traditionally valued the shares based on Funds From Operations. In this example, the market has normally valued Kinder Morgan at 9.7 times Funds From Operations (FFO). Therefore, utilizing this valuation metric implies that the company is fairly valued when the black price line is touching the blue line, overvalued when it is above it and undervalued when it is below it. Consequently, on this basis Kinder Morgan with a Price/Funds From Operations of 8.5 appears to be currently undervalued.
The third valuation metric is what we call the income valuation line for REITs and MLPs (note this line is only useful for REITs and MLPs). Once again, the same concept applies, when the black price line is touching the pink line it implies fair value based on the income distribution, and when above the pink line overvaluation is implied, and when below the pink line undervaluation is indicated. Kinder Morgan appears fairly valued on this basis. Finally, the important point is to notice how closely the stock price follows all the valuation metrics.
Funds From Operations (FFO) is a very close cousin to operating cash flows, and the source of distributable cash for MLPs. But most importantly, notice how Kinder Morgan has substantially outperformed the general market as measured by the S&P 500 on both a capital gain and income basis.
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
For those unfamiliar with this company, the following brief description courtesy of Reuters should be useful:
"QUALCOMM Incorporated (Qualcomm), incorporated in 1985, designs, manufactures and markets digital wireless telecommunications products and services based on its code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and other technologies. The Company operates through four segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); Qualcomm Wireless & Internet (QWI), and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). QCT is a developer and supplier of CDMA-based integrated circuits and system software for wireless voice and data communications, multimedia functions and global positioning system products."
Qualcomm paid its first dividend in 2003 which has grown rapidly along with the company's earnings. Consequently, we offer this as a potential candidate for retirees in the accumulation phase desirous of above-average total return and the potential for a growing dividend yield. The idea would be that future dividend income might be high enough to meet the income needs once the retiree enters the income distribution phase. Although Qualcomm may not continue growing at its historical rate, consensus expects the company to continue growing earnings at 15% to 20% over the intermediate to long-term future.
Qualcomm's track record clearly illustrates the power of investing in the fast-growing but moderate yielding Dividend Challenger. Therefore, I suggest that investors in the accumulation phase might want to consider Qualcomm with its moderate but potentially fast-growing dividend.
The large-cap Moderate Growth (10%-15%) Subset and The large-cap Average Growth (10% or less) Subset With Candidates for Both the Accumulation and Income Distribution Phases
These next two subsets will contain companies that could be effectively utilized for retirees in either the accumulation or the income distribution phases of their portfolio construction. Part of my reasoning for lumping these two subsets together is to illustrate how different the specific components of the Dividend Challengers' list can be. David Fish provides a great service in my opinion by preparing and maintaining his CCC lists of Champions, Contenders and Challengers found here.
However, it needs to be understood that these lists are created based on the specific criteria of their dividend growth streaks. Therefore, it should not be assumed that every member of every list is a good investment. These lists provide a great service, but they require a commitment by the individual investor to conduct their own due diligence on any specific candidate. Current valuation, and/or the future prospects of each company should be carefully scrutinized.
CVS Caremark (CVS)
CVS Caremark offers a moderate current yield and an above-average past and future expected growth rate. Therefore, I would consider this candidate most appropriate for the accumulation phase of a retiree's portfolio.
As a reminder, notice how quickly both price and earnings have recovered from the great recession (the area in the red circle). I have put a red circle on all the graphs to illustrate that the fears from the great recession are overblown.
Thanks to an above-average earnings growth rate, CVS Caremark was still able to outperform the S&P 500 since 1999 on a total return basis, even though the company's shares were overvalued in 1999. I would also like to focus the reader's attention on this company's low payout ratio and its high dividend growth rate. Therefore, even though the current yield is moderately low at 1.7%, the future growth potential should be a consideration for investors in the accumulation phase of their retirement portfolios' construction.
Wisconsin Energy Corp. (WEC)
Wisconsin Energy Corp. is one of the fastest-growing utility stocks in the country. Moreover, this Dividend Challenger offers an above-average 3.5% current yield. However, even though the company appears reasonably valued, prospective investors might want to wait for a slight pullback before investing. Once again, notice how little of a long-term impact the great recession had on this company's share price and earnings longer-term.
Wisconsin Energy has generated strong performance since 1999 on both a capital appreciation and dividend income basis. However, the prospective investor might want to reconcile themselves with the dividend cuts and weakness during the recessionary period of 2001. On the other hand, consideration should also be given to the fact that the dividend growth was very strong during the great recession of 2008 and beyond. Therefore, Wisconsin Energy may have learned from past mistakes.
Faster Growing Mid-Cap Subset
In theory, mid-cap companies might be expected to offer faster growth than their larger counterparts simply because they have more room to grow. However, that is not always the case, but prospective investors may be wise to keep this notion in the back of their mind as they review mid-cap candidates.
Factset Research Systems Inc. (FDS)
Factset Research Systems Inc. (FDS) is a mid-cap growth stock with a moderate yield but very fast earnings and dividend growth. Once again, we see that the great recession had only a temporary, but very mild impact on this company's business, its stock price and its dividend.
For those not familiar with the company, the following description is taken directly from their website:
"FactSet, a leading provider of financial information and analytics, helps the world's best investment professionals outperform. More than 48,000 users stay ahead of global market trends, access extensive company and industry intelligence, and monitor performance with FactSet's desktop analytics, mobile applications, and comprehensive data feeds."
Due to its strong earnings growth rate, Factset Research Systems has produced a very strong track record on behalf of the shareholders. Although its current yield is only moderate, the following performance table shows that the company's dividend growth rate has been exceptional and above average.
Moderate Growing Mid-cap Subset
As I alluded to earlier, mid-caps, in theory, provide the opportunity for above-average growth. However, not all mid-caps grow at above-average rates. On the other hand, there are average growing mid-caps that provide enough current yield in conjunction with the opportunity for moderate growth to be attractive considerations for the investor in the dividend distribution phase.
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR)
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc is offered as an example of a moderately-growing mid-cap company with an above-market current dividend yield. The following description taken directly from their website is offered for those not familiar with this company:
"Frost is the banking, investments and insurance subsidiary of Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (NYSE:CFR), a financial holding company with $20.9 billion in assets at June 30, 2012. One of 24 U.S.banks included in the KBW Bank Index, Frost provides a full range of business and consumer banking products, investment and brokerage services, insurance products and investment banking services. Frost operates more than 115 financial centers across Texas in the Austin, Corpus Christi, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio regions."The primary reason I utilize this company as a sample is to illustrate how different one Dividend Contender can be from the next. My previous examples were lower-yielding higher-growth examples offered for the accumulation phase. This company appears to be a worthy candidate for the income distribution phase.
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. has produced a solid track record and an above-average dividend growth rate since 1999. Consequently, it appears to be an appropriate investment for the retiree in the income distribution phase.
Small-Cap Subsets
For the sake of brevity, which this article has already forsaken, I will let the reader review the list of small-cap Contenders and the two specific examples without offering any rhetoric or explanation. Frankly, I'm not sure small-caps belong in a retirement portfolio unless the investor has a high tolerance for risk coupled with adequate diversification. Nevertheless, I believe the following examples illustrate how different the specific companies within a broad list such as the Dividend Contender can be. In other words, I feel it's important to look beyond the obvious and deeper into each company on the list before investing.
I hope that I have been able to illustrate the diversity among the 183 companies on the Dividend Contenders list. Although there are many Dividend Contenders that are worthy of holding a place in the retiree's portfolio, there also many that are not quite there yet. On the other hand, even for those that are not quite ready for prime time, I feel they are worthy of holding a place on the future potentials' list.
But perhaps most importantly, for those companies that are worthy of holding a place in the retirees' retirement portfolio, I believe many of them are attractively valued today. Consequently, the Dividend Contenders list represents a fertile field of attractive investments for those seeking income and for those seeking growth (total return) and of course, for those interested in both. But as always, due diligence beyond what has been presented here is highly recommended.
Disclosure: Long QCOM at the time of writing.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.This article was written by Chuck Carnevale. If you enjoyed this article, you can read more of his articles here.


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Aging Well Guru
Helpful tips for family caregivers
October/November 2012
With holiday visits coming up, you may observe problems that you weren't aware of before. These articles offer guidance to help you help your loved one.
Five signs your parents may need help
It's easy to know what to do when a parent has a medical crisis: Go to the ER. But without the red flags of an emergency, it can be hard to know if there's a health problem that needs attention.
Often, there are subtle signs of trouble brewing.
- Have your parents lost weight? Unplanned weight loss may indicate a medical condition, such as depression or cancer. Or vision problems that make cooking difficult. Or dental problems that make chewing painful.
- How is their appearance? Are their clothes clean? What about bathing and grooming? Unkempt appearance may signal depression or dementia.
- Do they seem safe in their home? Are there signs of falls, such as dents in the walls? Is there a system for making sure pills are taken? Scorched pans in the kitchen? Spoiled food in the refrigerator?
- Have they lost interest in their usual activities? Are they withdrawing from friends or dropping hobbies? These could signal pain, depression, or another health issue.
- How well are they getting around? Are they steady on their feet? Able to walk without problems? Any difficulty climbing stairs or getting out of a chair?
When you have concerns,
- talk with your parents. Tell them what you've noticed and why you are concerned. Ask them how you can help, and then LISTEN.
- get the doctor involved. If your parents refuse a doctor's exam, send a note to the doctor outlining what you have observed. That way, the doctor can follow up at the next regular appointment.
- solve problems together. Explore their preferences for handling the situation. Consider a family meeting so everyone can share in the discussion. You might also consult a geriatric care manager for help identifying possible solutions.
- be patient. If you encounter resistance, take a step back. People often need time to think about what has been discussed. Rushing can just build resentment.
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Talking with Dad about his hearing loss
Hearing loss affects 50% of people over age 85, most commonly men.
Poor hearing diminishes quality of life. It may bring on frustration in daily interactions with others. It can even be at the root of withdrawal from social activities. Hearing loss also carries risk, because your relative may not notice a shouted warning or may misunderstand a doctor's instructions.
Even so, many elders deny they have problems with hearing or don't seem to want to deal with them. One common reason is stigma. They may feel that people with hearing loss are stereotyped as older, less capable, and dull. (Who wants to join that club?) Not admitting the problem helps maintain needed self-esteem.
But your loved one does need a checkup. Getting to that point may require some time.
If you suspect your father or other family member has hearing loss:
- Learn if he thinks there is a problem. Explore gently. "Dad, you've gotten very quiet at family dinners. Has something changed?" See if he is disturbed about times he's not heard something and been confused or frustrated afterwards.
- Learn what he knows about solutions. If he identifies problems with hearing, explore the topic of solutions. (More on this in next month's newsletter.) See what reasons he gives for not taking action.
- Acknowledge the stereotype. Don't discount what might appear to be vanity. Instead, talk about how small hearing aides have gotten. And about other, less expensive options, such as personal amplifiers.
- Identify others with hearing loss. Give examples of people he knows and respects who have addressed their hearing loss. If he has hearing loss, is there anyone he would feel comfortable contacting for tips and lessons learned?
- Recommend an exam by a doctor or audiologist. Is the problem just a buildup of earwax? Or a medication side effect? There are many possibilities that have very simple solutions.
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What is hospice?
Hospice is a practice of specialized care for individuals nearing the end of life. But it is not just for the last few days. In fact, Medicare pays for months of free services to patients and their families. For instance:
- Do you wish you had help with bathing your loved one?
- Are you worried about keeping your relative comfortable and out of pain or suffering?
- Do you wish you had 24/7 access to medical advice?
Hospice offers these services and more. Its goal is to support the patient and family emotionally, physically, and spiritually.
With hospice care, your relative receives regular home visits from
- a nurse who comes to manage pain, nausea, and other uncomfortable symptoms;
- a social worker with advice about local programs to help with special needs;
- a trained volunteer who can stay with your relative once a week so you can have a needed 2-3 hours off.
Such services are free to persons on Medicare who meet these eligibility requirements:
- An incurable condition
- A doctor's assessment that the patient is not likely to live longer than six months
- Willingness to let go of curative treatment
With an emphasis on quality of life, hospice is the choice for patients who would rather enjoy the time they have left than continue with repeated hospitalizations and ER visits. It's also good for patients who are tired of dealing with the side effects of treatment that offers only a slim chance of recovery.
If you think your loved one could benefit from hospice care, ask the doctor a simple question: "Would you be surprised if [your relative] were to die in the next year?" If the doctor says "no," then it's wise to talk about if/when hospice would be a good choice. In hindsight, many families say they wish they had signed up sooner.
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Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert is confident the club can retain the services of striker Andreas Weimann and says talks are continuing over a new contract.
Weimann has 17 months left of his remaining deal - worth around £15,000 a week - and there has been speculation that negotiations have stalled over the terms of a four-year contract offer.
But Lambert wants to keep hold of the Austria Under-21 international, who has netted 10 times this season, and insists Weimann is happy at Villa.
He said: "Have contract talks stalled? No, we are still talking. Contrary to reports, I spoke to Andi the other day about it and he has never once indicated what the report said.
"I've spoken to him and everything is fine. Talks are ongoing but that's normal when you are trying to negotiate.
"Andi loves it here. I've spoken to him. I think there are more important things at this moment in time than worrying about contracts.
"What will happen with his contract will happen. He's still under contract so at the minute it's fine. I don't think he'll walk away. I don't."
Lambert added: "I think everyone knows agents can inflate people's salaries to whatever it is going to be.
"I think Andi's been very good and I've no problem with him at all. He's concentrating on the next 11 games. I've spoken to him a few times."
Villa striker Darren Bent is doubtful for Monday's home clash against Barclays Premier League champions Manchester City with a foot injury.
Lambert will also check on the fitness of captain Ron Vlaar, who missed last weekend's defeat at Arsenal with a calf problem.
He said: "Darren is still struggling with a knock on his foot which is a little bit of a concern.
"We'll have to wait and see on Ron's calf injury. He did a little bit yesterday. He's progressing."


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Please visit our Open House at 21 3855 PENDER ST in Burnaby.
Open House on Sunday, September 17, 2017 2:00PM - 4:00PM
WOW! 3 bed/2 bath 2 level bright end unit Townhome in the Heart of the Heights! Stylishly renovated, the main floor boasts hardwood floors, updated kitchen cabinets, quartz counters, ss appliances, f/place w/built in cabinets, tiled foyer & breakfast nook, lg sliders to balcony. Upstairs you will find big Master & 2 more beds, updated ensuite w/standup shower, 4 piece family bath, heated floors, closet organizers & blackout blinds. Top level is private sun drenched deck with panoramic views south & west to Cypress Mtn. Well run complex, walking distance to the Heights shops, restaurants, transit, schools & rec facilities. 1 parking/1 storage. Sneak peak Sept. 7, 6-7 PM OPEN HOUSE SAT/SUN SEPT 9/10 from 2:00-4:00 PM


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- Home
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- Services
- Concealed Carry of Firearms
FOID & Concealed Carry of Firearms
Unless specifically exempted by statute, any Illinois resident who acquires or possesses firearms, firearm ammunition, tasers or stun guns within the State must have in their possession a valid FOID card issued in his or her name. Non-residents are not required to have a FOID card.The FOID card is NOT a "conceal and carry" card.
The Illinois State Police has eliminated the paper FOID applications. You can now apply for, renew, and check the status of your FOID application at the Illinois State Police's Firearms Services Bureau webpage: ISP Firearms Services Bureau
Illinois Concealed Carry Law
The State of Illinois enacted a concealed carry law which allows individuals to carry a firearm in Illinois. The "Firearm Concealed Carry Act" link provides additional general information as well as answers to frequently asked questions regarding the new law. In addition to providing the regulations by which the individuals can carry a firearm, the law also allowed certain municipalities to enact a ban on assault type weapons.The Village of Libertyville has taken no action on such a ban, based upon a number of factors including the ten day time frame enacted by the legislature during which municipalities would have to enact the ban (and which did not allow time for a public hearing or Village Board meeting on the issue), as well as a significant legal issue as to whether non-home rule communities such as Libertyville could enact such a ban on assault weapons. Village officials believe that a ban on assault weapons would be much more effective and enforceable at the State of Federal level, and encourages anyone interested in such a ban to contact our local legislators.
Illinois State Police Post Approved Concealed Carry Signage Specifications Pursuant To The Firearm Concealed Carry Act
Illinois State Police recently released information on regulatory requirements for concealed carry signage under the Firearm Concealed Carry Act (430 ILCS 66/1, et. seq.).More information can be found at: ISP Firearms Services Bureau


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Common Lisp the Language, 2nd Edition
string is simply a vector of characters.
More precisely, a string is a specialized vector whose elements
are of type string-char.
X3J13 voted in March 1989 (CHARACTER-PROPOSAL)
to eliminate the type string-char and to redefine the type
string to be the union of one or more specialized vector
types, the types of whose elements are subtypes of the type character.
Subtypes of string include simple-string, base-string,
and simple-base-string.
base-string == (vector base-character) simple-base-string == (simple-array base-character (*))
An implementation may support
other string subtypes as well. All Common Lisp functions that operate
on strings treat all strings uniformly; note, however,
that it is an error to attempt to insert
an extended character into a base string.
The type string is therefore a subtype of the type vector.
A string can be written as the sequence of characters contained in the string, preceded and followed by a " (double quote) character. Any " or \ character in the sequence must additionally have a \ character before it.
For example:
"Foo" ;A string with three characters in it "" ;An empty string "\"APL\\360?\" he cried." ;A string with twenty characters "|x| = |-x|" ;A ten-character string
Notice that any vertical bar | in a string need not be preceded by a \. Similarly, any double quote in the name of a symbol written using vertical-bar notation need not be preceded by a \. The double-quote and vertical-bar notations are similar but distinct: double quotes indicate a character string containing the sequence of characters, whereas vertical bars indicate a symbol whose name is the contained sequence of characters.
The characters contained by the double quotes, taken from left to right, occupy locations within the string with increasing indices. The leftmost character is string element number 0, the next one is element number 1, the next one is element number 2, and so on.
Note that the function prin1 will print any character vector (not just a simple one) using this syntax, but the function read will always construct a simple string when it reads this syntax.


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WHO Guidelines on Ensuring Human Rights in the Provision of Contraceptive Information and Services: Guidance and Recommendations
These WHO guidelines provide recommendations for programmes as to how they can ensure that human rights are respected, protected and fulfilled, while services are scaled up to reduce unmet need for contraception. Both health data and international human rights laws and treaties were incorporated into the guidance. This guidance is complementary to existing WHO recommendations for sexual and reproductive health programmes, including guidance on family planning, maternal and newborn health, safe abortion, and core competencies for primary health care.
Last modified: March 25, 2019


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50 Cent Movie Billboards Pulled
In reaction to complaints they glorify gangs and violence, Paramount is taking down some billboards for the 50 Cent movie Get Rich or Die Tryin'. The billboards show 50 Cent in a crucifixion pose with a gun in one hand and a microphone in the other. Doesn't everyone know that a rapper has to hold a gun when they sing? It's what gives them cred. Trouble is, 6th graders don't know that or don't need to know that and that's exactly where one of the boards is located - right next to a school. School officials and area activists want the board gone. Paramount is taking them down.


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What's that law called that exists in the Universe that makes us what what we don't have?
You know, that law that makes people with curly hair want straight hair? People with brown eyes want blue or green and vice versa? Or, I know………people who wear glasses want perfect vision and those that don't need glasses want them? Wait. I'm not sure that's one of those laws. But it should be.
Can you believe that after all I went through to get perfect vision {remember this?} I miss eyeglasses? Let me clarify. I don't miss the poor vision or the reliance on glasses or contacts to be able to function. What I miss is having a cute pair of frames I can throw on and feel a bit…….studious when I want to.
I sort of got my eye glasses fix last year when my Emma needed prescription glasses for a lack of depth perception. I had so much fun helping her pick out a few pair of frames. I LOVED her glasses. I loved her in them. I was actually sad when her eye sight corrected itself and she didn't need them anymore.
This may be why I'm craving a pair of eyeglass frames for myself now. It's been long enough since my Lasik surgery that I'm pretty sure Jeff just might be amiable to me getting a pair of "prop" glasses. No one needs to know that I just want them for looks.
In my search for some super affordable glasses, I found Glasses USA. I can't believe their excellent, and by excellent I mean super affordable prices {we're talking $18 starting price for a pair of prescription single vision glasses}, and I found out that the company has a "heart". No pair of returned glasses are restocked. Glasses USA donates all returned eyeglasses to organizations around the US who sanitize and then redistribute the glasses with the correct prescription lenses to people throughout the world who cannot afford vision care. How great is that?
Now, no laughing when you see my in my no-prescription-lenses frames in the near future.
Disclosure: Glasses USA is helping to make my fancy for a new pair of glasses a reality!


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Bobby Knight is a pretty controversial figure in the world of collegiate sports. He was known for being as fiery as they come, a coach not below vulgar tirades and endless condescension, even toward his own players, if that got the job done. And while the debate about the effectiveness and appropriateness of his methodology will continue into perpetuity, I'd like to highlight some of the financial acumen he's demonstrated recently.
Knight recently chose to auction a lifetime's worth of sports memorabilia that had collected throughout his illustrious career—including his championship basketball rings and Olympic gold medal—not because he's been added to the list of sports figures to have gone bankrupt, but because he values the education of his grandchildren above his stuff.
His rationale was simple—he doesn't use the stuff. He doesn't wear the championship rings, the Olympic warm-up jacket or medal. But he figured his grandkids, nieces and nephews could benefit from the education supplement supported by the memorabilia liquidation.
Now, if I used Knight's example as an opportunity to probe the depths of the warm and fuzzy or make an attempt at profundity, I'd surely only incite his wrath, so I'll err on the side of brevity and directness and communicate just as the sports world's most legendary curmudgeon might:
"You only have so many @#$%ing dollars and can only accumulate so much @#$%ing stuff, so stop acting like a dip-@#$% and put your money and stuff where your heart is."
You know what? Knight's unintended financial planning lesson might just be the core lesson we all need to learn about money, albeit with a few less expletives.
So where's your heart? And where's your money?
[youtuber youtube='http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Onfzet1xxs']