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Prehistoric people in China used to regularly eat giant pandas, according to new research by scientist Wei Guangbiao, head of the Institute of Three Gorges Paleoanthropology.
Wei says he has excavated panda fossils near the modern-day city of Chongqing that show tool marks, "showed that pandas were once slashed to death by man."
He told the Chongqing Morning Post that the slash marks meant the pandas had to have been food, since "In primitive times, people wouldn't kill animals that were useless to them." The Associated Press reported on his comments.
Giant pandas, which still exist in the mountains of nearby Sichuan province and a few other places in China, were once plentiful in the mountainous Chongqing region. Wei says the animals lived there between 10,000 and 1 million years ago, but they were much smaller than they are now. Modern pandas can grow up to six feet in length and weigh upwards of 350 pounds.
Giant pandas today are an endangered species facing habitat loss and fragmented populations. According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the wild population of giant pandas numbers less than 2,000 and possibly as few as 1,000 animals. The species lives in small pockets of habitat with no individual populations greater than 250 individuals.
More panda stories on MNN:
- Photos: What giant pandas do for fun
- Half of giant panda habitat may be gone in 70 years
- Panda poop may solve biofuel woes


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Mating Systems and Strategies
Princeton University Press, May 26, 2003 - Science - 533 pages
This book presents the first unified conceptual and statistical framework for understanding the evolution of reproductive strategies. Using the concept of the opportunity for sexual selection, the authors illustrate how and why sexual selection, though restricted to one sex and opposed in the other, is one of the strongest and fastest of all evolutionary forces. They offer a statistical framework for studying mating system evolution and apply it to patterns of alternative mating strategies. In doing so, they provide a method for quantifying how the strength of sexual selection is affected by the ecological and life history processes that influence females' spatial and temporal clustering and reproductive schedules.
Directly challenging verbal evolutionary models that attempt to explain reproductive behavior without quantitative reference to evolutionary genetics, this book establishes a more solid theoretical foundation for the field. Among the weaknesses the authors find in the existing data is the apparent ubiquity of condition-dependent mating tactics. They identify factors likely to contribute to the evolution of alternative mating strategies--which they argue are more common than generally believed--and illustrate how to measure the strength of selection acting on them. Lastly, they offer predictions on the covariation of mating systems and strategies, consider the underlying developmental biology behind male polyphenism, and propose directions for future research.
Informed by genetics, this is a comprehensive and rigorous new approach to explaining mating systems and strategies that will influence a wide swath of evolutionary biology.
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Behavioral Flexibility in Primates: Causes and Consequences
Clara Jones
Limited preview - 2005
Modelling for Field Biologists and Other Interesting People
Hanna Kokko
Limited preview - 2007

subset: commoncrawl


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Correctional officer killed by inmate
Second corrections officer injured by inmate serving life term
LAKE CITY, Fla. – A Department of Corrections officer was stabbed to death by an inmate Sunday night at a state prison near Lake City.
Ken Tucker, secretary of the Department of Corrections, told Channel 4 that Sgt. Ruben Thomas was attacked by an inmate just before 10 p.m. Sunday at the Columbia Correctional Institution annex.
Tucker said Thomas, 24, was in one of the wings of a dorm checking on an inmate when a control room officer saw inmate Richard Franklin chase and then stab Thomas several times in the neck with a handmade weapon.
"There had been a call through the intercom system for an inmate that said he wanted to see an officer," Tucker said. "Rather than to call for an officer to go down there, Sgt. Thomas responded to that himself."
When he realized he was in danger, investigators believe Thomas tried to get away, but it was too late.
Thomas was taken to Shands Lake Shore Hospital in Lake City, where he died.
"There will be lots of support for his family," Tucker said. "Chaplains were brought in to help the staff work through this. They lost more than a co-worker, they lost a friend."
Tucker said that a second officer, William Brewer, was trying to lock down inmates when Franklin swung something heavy in a sock, striking Brewer in the eye. Brewer was also taken to a hospital, where he was treated and released.
Franklin, 37, was serving a life sentence on several charges, including the 2004 murder of a Bethune-Cookman College student in Daytona Beach, battery on a law enforcement officer and escape. Records show Franklin has been disciplined more than 50 times in prison for disobedience, threats and lying, among other things.
Tucker said Franklin will be transferred to a maximum security prison, and the killing will be investigated by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.
Thomas, a six-year veteran, had a young daughter and was engaged to be married. His fiancee is pregnant with their second child.
"Ruben was a hard-working boy. He did what he had to do to pay the bills," said Debbie Dees, a close family friend. "He was the first to forgive anybody for what they did. He was such a good Christian person. He went into to work every day with the thought that, 'God forgives you, and so do I.' And I don't think that there was a person that could say a bad word about Ruben."
Dees said she watched Thomas grow up and become a great man.
"I've known him since he was just a baby, and his mom and dad raised him with the best moral values that anybody could ever have. He was just a good southern gentleman," she said. "He loved to hunt, he loved to fish, and he loved his family, first and foremost, all his family. His mom and his daddy and his grandparents. Most especially, his baby girl."
The killing brings to light the dangers correctional officers face.
"A lot of people don't realize how dangerous their jobs are," Tucker said. "Every day they're running behind fences, dealing with inmates such as inmate Franklin, who are in there for murder and robbery."
"I am saddened to learn of the tragic death of Sgt. Ruben Thomas last night at the Columbia Correctional Institute annex," Gov. Rick Scott said in a statement. "My deepest condolences go to his family and fellow correctional officers in Columbia County and across Florida. A second officer, William Brewer, was also assaulted during the attack, and I pray for his quick recovery."
"It is always troubling when members of our law enforcement community lose their lives in the line of duty. These brave men and women dedicate themselves each day to ensure Florida is a safe place to live. We all need to remember the sacrifices and heroic efforts of our officers."
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to Sgt. Thomas' family and friends," added Ken Wood, acting president of Teamsters Local 2011. "We only hope this tragedy draws attention to the serious understaffing problems that plague FDOC."
The last Florida correctional officer killed by an inmate was Donna Fitzgerald, who died after being attacked June 25, 2008, at Tomoka Correctional Institution.
Copyright 2012 by News4Jax.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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Douglas Befroy, DPhil
Visiting Research Scientist in Radiology and Biomedical Imaging and Research Scientist in Medicine (Endocrinology)
Research & Publications
Dr. Befroy obtained a BA in Chemistry from the University of Oxford where a research project, investigating ion uptake in plants, stimulated his interest in biological Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS). He remained at Oxford, for post-graduate study, and received a D.Phil in Biochemistry/Physiology. His doctoral thesis studied the application of MRS to investigate physiological events during cardiac ischemia. Doug joined Dr. Gerald Shulman's lab as a post-doctoral fellow, in 2000, investigating the applications of MRS to study the effects of type 2 diabetes, aging and exercise on muscle and liver metabolism. He was appointed a Research Scientist in the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in 2010. His current research interests involve the development of novel MRS methods to investigate muscle, liver and heart metabolism in vivo.
Education & Training
- DPhilUniversity of Oxford (2000)
- MAUniversity of Oxford (1998)
- BAUniversity of Oxford (1996)
- Postdoctoral FellowYale Univeristy


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Out of Stock Contact us for availability date
Our Price, + delivery free UK delivery over £99
The Ortovox Freerider 16 black backpacks are a firm favourite of ours and they have now got even better, the spine protector is now a body hugging 8 piece flexible setup.
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There is a diagonal ski and the snowboard fastenings as well as the classic side carry system, the side carry is on the regular size and the large size only.
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As with all ORTOVOX backpacks, the FREERIDE SERIES includes an emergency card: In the case of an emergency, the card provides information about the injured person and therefore allows for faster and more efficient treatment.
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Let's go Steelers! Take it to em tonight!
Yea, I went there.
Time to shut up all the doubters, guys!!
"Commitment to the team - there is no such thing as in-between, you are either in or you're out."-Pat Riley
This will be a big game for us and I really think we will bounce back nicely. I dont think that Washington will be able to score very easily due to the fact that Portis is the heart of that offense and running backs simply dont have good games against us.
Skins-9(all field goals)
Must win game tonight, let's get this win and keep the Ratbirds in 2nd place!
Actually Portis had 129 yards against St Louis.
His three lowest games were weeks 1 (84yd L Dallas),2 (96 yds W NO) and 3 (68 yds W Arizona).
Campbell completed 55% v. Dallas, 66% v. NO and 73% v. Arizona.
Stoping the run is very important, but Campbell is not just managing the game. He is playing great football and can win the game for them himself. Stuffing the run will limit how effective play action will be - which will absolutely kill us if we over react to play fakes.
I think this is a very tough test for our D tonight.
Portass is banged up, moss is banged up, so a couple of nice licks and they are watchin the game from the trainers table
moss is going to play tonight according to espn.
but we have Santonio back too!!!
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For those of you who know me, you know that there are many things I love. Agriculture and Glee are two big ones, but another one is <drum roll please>….Disney!! Yes, that's right. I'm a huge fan of Disney and I'll shout it from the rooftops! Last week I got to go to 'the happiest place on Earth' on Spring Break and, can I just say, it's totally AWESOME when two of the things I love intersect?
No, the cast of Glee did not go to Disney with me. Unfortunately.
But it was the International Flower and Garden Expo at Epcot! During the Expo, Disney really ramps up their floricultural prowess, creating magnificiant topiary and beautiful gardens. There were Disney characters out of flowers and different plants all over the place. While sometimes we forget that horticulture and floriculture are part of the agricultural industry (a VERY important industry in states like Florida and Michigan!), it's great to see a non-agricultural business like Disney put on display the talents of so many agriculturalists.
What's even cooler to me is the fact that Disney values agriculture all year round. One of my favorite places to go when I visit the parks is The Land Pavilion, also in Epcot. In The Land, you can go on a boat ride through their greenhouses where you can see hydroponics (the production of plants without soil), aquaculture (the production of fish in a controlled environment), aquaponics (production of plants and fish integrating the water from hydroponics with the fish from aquaculture) and more on display. Walt was always a big fan of progress and technology, including where it is related to food production. The Land allows Disney visitors to learn about some of the newest technology related to agriculture — some technology that may even be new to farmers!
(And that's Walt Disney, in case you were confused!)
Have you ever been impressed by the agricultural endeavors — horticultural or otherwise — at a Disney park? What about another location where you wouldn't automatically expect it? I'd love to hear about it! It's always great when non-ag groups value our products just as much as we do.


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Mo. Senators Split in Reaction to Obama Gun Agenda
KANSAS CITY (AP) - Missouri's two U.S. senators are divided on President Barack Obama's agenda for reducing gun violence.
Republican Sen. Roy Blunt said Wednesday that Obama's proposals "fundamentally fail" to address ways of preventing tragic events like the shooting the killed 26 people at a Connecticut school. He says the focus should be on treatment for the mentally ill.
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill says she supports services for the mentally ill, as well as Obama's proposals to expand background checks to all gun purchases and limit the size of ammunition magazines that can be sold. McCaskill says such steps can be taken while still protecting Second Amendment rights.
But Blunt says Obama's proposals attempt to restrict Second Amendment rights. Among other things, Obama wants Congress to ban the sale of military-style assault weapons.


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To Order 1-800-577-5694
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The RS800SD adds in running speed and distance, and our newest feature, running cadence, with the new S3 Stride Sensor W.I.N.D. The RS800sd can be fully integrated into the adidas adistar running tops and shoes, to create the Worlds First Integrated Training System. The Polar RS800sd Running Computer is a complete system for planning, monitoring and analyzing your training. It provides an optimum combination of features for elite level athletes and their coaches. With the new Polar WearLink transmitter W.I.N.D., the Polar RS800sd is part of the world's first integrated training system together with adidas running gear. It also comes with the new Polar s3 stride sensor W.I.N.D. for detailed speed/pace and distance tracking, and is compatible with Polar G3 GPS Sensor W.I.N.D. It provides information about your heart rate, exercise history and goals, running and cycling speeds and distances, as well as weather, time, geographical bearing, and more! Array of helpful weight management features Altimeter Weather, temperature and barometer Compass Clock with day/month, alarms and stopwatch Computer connectivity and data transfer capability
©2020 Advantage Medical - Physical Therapy Equipment Supplier, a division of Scrip, Inc
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The comic Sarah Silverman has been added to the line-up of the TBS Just for Laughs Festival. Silverman will present an evening of her "favorite comedians" at the Chicago Theatre at 7:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. June 16. Tickets for all shows go on sale 10 a.m. Saturday.
The former Second City stars Kevin Dorff and Scott Adsit will also be in town, performing at the iO Theater on June 13 and 14.
Other newly announced shows include a late-night bill of Janeane Garofalo and Kyle Kinane at Second City's UP Comedy Club on June 13, and a show, entitled "Conspiracy Theory Live," performed by the former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura (as channelled by James Adomian) on June 14 at The Hideout.
The Laugh Factory will also be busy with festival programing, featuring shows throughout the week involving the writers for the Conan show, among others, while venues from the Lincoln Hall to the Beat Kitchen will feature local and national comics. The festival, which is in its fourth year, now ranges across 19 venues.
For a full schedule and more information, visit www.justforlaughschicago.com, or TBSveryfunny on Facebook, or follow @TBSVeryFunny on Twitter. Tickets are available through the individual venues.


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Tu sei qui
Yogi Bhajan Stories
What was/is it like to be Yogi Bhajan's student? We all have unforgetable stories about our personal encounters with him and the life lessons he taught us and continues to teach.
If you have a story to share, send it to 3HOWebEditor.
For links to all the Yogi Bhajan stories we feature on this website, see the list on this page under "You May Also be Interested In."


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52 Weeks: Melt Bar & Grilled, Cleveland, OH
Week 51 of 52
East Side Spot (place of visit)
13463 Cedar Road
Cleveland Heights, Ohio 44118
(216) 965-0988
Monday-Thursday: 11:00am – 11:00pm
Friday-Saturday: 11:00am – 12:00 midnight
Sunday: 10:00am – 10:00pm
Bar open till 2:00am every night.
They are also located on the West Side of Cleveland
14718 Detroit Ave
Lakewood, Ohio
(216) 226-3699
Rank: 4/5
Type of Establishment: Psychotically creative meal emporium; home of grilled cheese magic.
Visit: A homecoming for Xmas, I went to Cleveland to spend an evening with my little brother. He recently graduated college and became a man. It was time for him to finally buy his big brother a beer (he bought 1, I bought all the others).
Beers on Tap (at time of visit):
Yikes. Unfortunately, it was so dark that I couldn't get a legible photo. This is from memory, but they have about 25 beers on tap at any time.
Bells Two Hearted Ale
Bells Winter Ale
Breckenridge Small Batch IPA
Breckenridge Christmas Ale
Troegs Mad Elf
Great Lakes Christmas Ale
Thirtsy Dog 12 Dogs of Christmas
Dogfish Head 90 Minute IPA
Left Hand Milk Stout
Southern Tier Old Man Winter
and many others…..
Bottle List:
Excellent bottle list for a place more geared towards food than beer. The full list is here, but they supplement that list seasonally, with some random others. All in all there are about 100 bottles on hand at any time. I was really excited to see the offerings from New Holland Mad Hatter, Jolly Pumpkin selections, and Heavy Seas Loose Cannon Imperial IPA.
They also have an impressive Belgian list. This is one of the few places in Cleveland where you can find a bottle of Gueze from Cantillon, the full gamut of Trappist ales, and a tasty bottle of Boon's Oude Gueze. Don't forget to check that list out here, as well.
Food Options:
This should be the focus of this article, not the beer. The beer is simply a pretty cool little throw in, to the epic food options available here.
Melt was featured on Man v. Food, and several other eatery TV shows. It has the distinct pleasure of being called Cleveland's greatest pub food venue. I cannot disagree, after partaking in their grub for two meals during my 24 hours in Cleveland.
Melt's name means something – melted cheese. The pub offers about 20 grilled cheese masterpieces, along with about 12 burgers, which might as well be grilled cheeses stuffed with burger.
The motif is this – take two giant pieces of texas toast, smother then in butter, fill them with an epic proportion of cheese, stuff it with some other artery clogging delight – grill that puppy. Check out the full list of options here. Pay attention to the one stuffed with bratwurst, the one stuffed with pierogi, the one stuffed with LASAGNA!
I will talk more specifically about the sandwiches that we ordered, below. But, Melt also offers some amazing appetizers. We had the grilled pierogis and the buffalo chicken soup, which has become a cult classic. Both of these items were incredible. I especially loved the soup, stuffed with blue cheese, celery, carrot and a delightful spicy broth.
Whether you elect to go savory or sweet, you cannot miss with these sandwiches. Get one.
Bar Opinions:
Melt is my type of place. Its dark, heavily decorated in Cleveland lore, and full of great bar seating. When you enter the Cleveland Heights venue (they also have a place in Lakewood, on the west side of Cleveland), you see a wide open space, with the bar in the center. The bar area is rectangular, providing seating all around a central "island" where the booze is stored. This provides maximum area for lounging at the bar and starting at the taps and bottles. I like it.
We grabbed some bar seating and some menus. We are clamoring for some christmas beer and some massive heart attack initiating sandwiches. Luckily, our menu obliges. We decided to start off with some pierogis and a couple of xmas ales. I start with the Breckenridge Christmas Ale, and my brother grabs the Mad Elf from Troegs.
While we sip on these beauties, I begin mulling over my stomach's demise. The menu's best options appear to be the Municipal Stadium Magic, stuffed with local bratwurst, vodka kraut, grilled peppers and american cheese; the Parmageddon (named for local burb, Parma), stuffed with potato & cheese pierogi, vodka kraut, grilled onions and sharp cheddar; and of course – the Godfather, 3 cheese lasagna, fresh fennel-oregano pasta sheets, spicy red sauce, provolone and garlic spiked bread. No lies, lasagna in a grilled cheese. Got to have that one.
We grab a Godfather and decide to get the Municipal Stadium for the other, as we had already had some pierogis. The sandwiches weigh in at no less than 2 lbs a piece, but to add insult to your small intestine, they dump a large serving of their delicious house-made slaw and a pile of their fresh cut fries. Someone get the stomach pump ready.
Those first two beers were very good. Breckenridge's Christmas Ale has a nice spiciness and light body that makes it easy to drink. But, the Mad Elf is the surefire winner. Mad Elf has a sharp boozy finish and a bright euro spiciness. Some say that this beer is off this year. Sometimes when I hear that its because the beer is "too much" for the palette. While that turns off some beer drinkers – it only peaks my interest.
In preparation for our meal, we grab a second round – all Mad Elf. When our sandwiches arrive, I am famished. By the time, I box up the remainders – I can barely move. The Municipal Stadium is incredibly flavorful. I love the local bratwurst, which was juicy, spicy and wonderfully matched with the vodka kraut. But, the Godfather is clear victor. As if any lasagna stuffed in a grilled cheese wouldn't be amazing? Guess what – this lasagna is amazing! The amount of cheese in this puppy is striking. It bursts with flavor and spice and is unmatchable. Its a no-brainer.
The pierogis, slaw and the buffalo chicken soup (which I got on a follow up visit the next day) were all amazing. Nothing that I tried failed to meet expectations. Get as much as you can. Remember that you can always take it home. No one at this place will judge you. Take a visit, eat some food, drink some good beer and take a nap.
January 2, 2011 at 12:54 pm


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South African Journal of Industrial Engineering
On-line version ISSN 2224-7890
Print version ISSN 1012-277X
S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. vol.25 n.2 Pretoria Aug. 2014
Managing uncertainty in typical mining project studies
C. KühnI; J.K. VisserII, *
IThe author was enrolled for an M Eng (Project Management) degree in the Department of Engineering and Technology Management, University of Pretoria. Department of Engineering and Technology Management University of Pretoria, South Africa firstname.lastname@example.com
IIDepartment of Engineering and Technology Management University of Pretoria, South Africa. email@example.com
Mining project studies and their evaluation are characterised by high uncertainties. These uncertainties range in magnitude from, and are prevalent in, the geological data on which the project is based, through to the final prices received for the ore, metal, or mineral being sold to the market. The process for managing uncertainties in mining projects could have a huge impact on the decision about the final option and on the project composition. It is therefore critical that a systematic process is followed that manages these uncertainties effectively and consistently throughout the project phases, and when evaluating various options one against the other. This paper discusses the results of an investigation to determine the extent to which risk management was applied in twenty different project studies in the mining environment. The results of these studies indicate that uncertainties relating to typical mining project studies are not well understood or managed. A process to manage these uncertainties throughout the project development phases was developed and used in a typical pre-feasibility study. The results indicate that the process can be successfully implemented; and that the process helps to develop the project faster by focusing the project teams most on the uncertainties that affect the project need or requirement.
Projekstudies in die mynboubedryf en die evaluasie van sodanige projekte word gekenmerk deur hoë onsekerheid. Hierdie onsekerhede wissel in grootte, en is teenwoordig vanaf die geologiese data waarop die projek gebaseer is tot by die finale prys waarvoor die erts, metaal, of mineraal verkoop kan word. Die proses wat gebruik word om die onsekerhede in mynbouprojekte te bestuur kan 'n groot impak hê op die uiteindelike opsie wat gekies word en die samestelling van die projek. Dit is derhalwe van uiterste belang dat 'n sistematiese proses gevolg word om die onsekerhede effektief te bestuur deur die verloop van die projekfases en wanneer alternatiewe met mekaar vergelyk word. Hierdie artikel bespreek die resultate van 'n ondersoek wat gedoen is om te bepaal tot watter mate risikobestuur toegepas is vir twintig projekstudies in die mynbou-omgewing. Die resultate van hierdie navorsingsprojek in die mynboubedryf het aangetoon dat die onsekerhede met betrekking tot tipiese projekstudies in mynbou nie goed verstaan word deur bestuur nie. 'n Proses om hierdie onsekerhede deur die loop van die ontwikkelingsfases van die projek te bestuur is ontwikkel en toegepas op 'n tipiese voor-doenlikheidstudie. Die resultate toon aan dat die proses suksesvol geïmplementeer kan word en dat die projek vinniger ontwikkel kan word deur die projekspanne te fokus op die onsekerhede wat die behoefte van die projek die meeste beïnvloed.
1.1 Background
Paulos [1] stated, "Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security". This quote rings especially true in the environment of project studies, and even more so in mining studies. These studies are typified by long implementation periods, highly volatile revenue (commodity) prices, and unpredictable escalation forecasting. Uncertainties that relate to mining studies are evident throughout the various disciplines involved. Uncertain events, as well as uncertain values of project variables - such as cost, duration, and performance of individual activities - contribute towards an overall uncertainty about the total cost and duration of projects.
Uncertainties, as in any typical project, can have either positive or negative effects on the final project evaluation, and therefore on the final project selection. The magnitude of the risks and the frequency of their occurrence varies, depending on the project and the project phase and definition that is required according to the relevant project lifecycle process.
Evaluating mining project studies has therefore become an area of intense debate, as varying assumptions made by independent project teams often lead to different results. The top management of companies obviously wish to make the right choice of projects to enhance the probability of project success. The use of project risk management can improve project success; but as Borge [2] says, "risk management is not a magic formula that will always give the right answer; it's a way of thinking that will give better answers to better questions". Uncertainties (risks and opportunities) should be identified, managed, and controlled effectively and consistently.
1.2 The project environment in mining
Mining projects require a large number of interdisciplinary components to merge to ensure final project success. Mining projects typically comprise the following disciplines:
- Geology, including mineralogy and structural geology
- Mining, including logistical, ventilation, and rock engineering
- Infrastructure, including civil, mechanical, and electrical engineering
- Techno-economic evaluation, including estimation and financial evaluation
- Value chain, including metallurgy and optimisation
The integration of these disciplines and their uncertainties are critical in ensuring that the maximum possible value is realised by the project. The flowchart in Figure 1 indicates the integration of these disciplines throughout a typical mining study.
Geology is the foundation for all mining projects. Geology and commodity pricing can also be considered as the only two aspects of a mining project that cannot be influenced by a project team. Geology is also the discipline that needs to lead the others, and for obvious reasons has the most influence on the decisions and the designs of the other disciplines.
Typical uncertainties that the project and subsequent disciplines need to consider include the structural and mineralogical make-up of the ore body.
The mining discipline, which follows the geology, starts with the basic mining methods for the ore body that has already been defined. This initial work defines the final structure and infrastructure backbone requirements of the project.
When the mining method and layouts have been defined, the process of defining and detailing the infrastructure required to service and support the mining method can begin. All general engineering disciplines are involved in this detailing, including mechanical, electrical, and civil engineering.
Once the project has been defined from a technical perspective, the techno-economic evaluation can be performed. During this phase, the output from each of the other main disciplines provides the inputs for the financial evaluation. Using assumptions about the pricing of commodities, escalation forecasts, etc., the project can then be evaluated using the net present value (NPV) technique. However, projects can never be evaluated on their own financial benefits, expressed as an NPV. Projects are executed within organisations, and the net financial effect on the financial performance of the company needs to be considered in the decision-making process. The difference between the NPV for the company (including other projects) with a new project included, and the NPV without the new project, should therefore be evaluated and used in the final decision whether or not to proceed.
This process also requires a fair amount of iteration to ensure that the project delivers the maximum value for the shareholder(s). This iterative process can significantly prolong the study phase of such projects.
1.3 Research objective
The main objective of this research study was to evaluate 20 project studies in the mining industry, and to use this information to develop and propose a new uncertainty management process. The existing processes, tools, techniques, and methods that are currently used for project studies were therefore investigated and incorporated, where applicable, into the proposed process. The associated research questions were:
- What are the typical uncertainties involved in mining projects?
- Why should uncertainty (including risk and opportunity) management be undertaken in mining projects?
- Which of the techniques for identification, evaluation, treatment, and monitoring should be used within the uncertainty management process for typical mining projects?
- How should uncertainty be managed in a typical mining project?
- How should the uncertainty management process be implemented throughout the project life-cycle?
Numerous authors have published processes and techniques for the management of uncertainty in projects. The majority of these processes are extensions and modifications of existing risk management processes, and focus mainly on uncertainties that affect the project outcomes negatively. All of these processes use the same basic process structure described by Meredith & Mantel [3]. This structure is similar to the process used by the PMBoK Guide [4], the AS/NZS 4360 risk management standard [5], and the ISO 31000 standard on risk management [6]. It is illustrated in Figure 2.
Due to the terminology of risk and uncertainty management presented by these guides, the perception is created that uncertainty management is limited to the management of adverse consequences that impact on projects [7]. This perception limits project teams to focusing on issues and effects that threaten project success; thus opportunities for improving the project outcomes are neglected and, in many projects, totally ignored. Chapman [8] argues that all organisations involved in extensive risk and uncertainty management should develop their own processes to manage these aspects. These processes can, and should, be based on the processes described in any of the various guides listed above.
Hillson [9] describes the application of the PMBoK risk management process for the management of risks and of opportunities in projects. He argues that, although in certain instances risks and opportunities could be managed separately, a single process can effectively be used for the management of all uncertainties (risks and opportunities) in projects. This process should therefore form part of the overall project management function.
However, Jaafari [10] argues that project management practice needs to make a fundamental shift - away from task and activity-based approaches, to a more strategy-based management, where risk and uncertainty management should form a core function within this approach. Jaafari [10] argues that project management should be approached from a lifecycle objective function perspective, and that this should drive risk reduction and opportunity increases in projects.
This research project comprised three phases:
- A literature study on current risk management processes, tools, and techniques
- The investigation of 20 mining projects
- The testing of a proposed risk management process
The first phase, the literature study, was discussed in the previous section. The other two phases are briefly discussed in the next two subsections.
3.1 Investigation of completed projects
This investigation was done on 20 mining project studies completed between 2002 and 2012. These studies were selected from a large pool of project studies completed by a single contractor in the mining industry. Although the data was gathered from a single contractor, the risk management processes used in these projects could be regarded as an accurate portrayal of the risk management process used for projects throughout the mining industry.
In addition to the data obtained from reports and information systems, informal interviews were held with various individuals who were experienced in the field of typical mining related projects. They included personnel from different project positions, including:
- Project managers
- Project engineers
- Project control personnel
- Risk management personnel
- Financial and economic analysts
Data for the 20 selected projects was available for different life stages. For three projects, some data was available for two project stages. For the purpose of this study, the data can be treated as 23 independent projects.
3.2 Testing of proposed process
The third phase of the research study involved applying the proposed uncertainty management process to a test project. A pre-feasibility project study was selected as the test project. Due to the nature of pre-feasibility studies - where the main purpose is to investigate various options and finally recommend the option that should be detailed during the feasibility phase - this project phase should be the one where the proposed process can add the most value.
4.1 Project studies
The 20 projects varied in size and complexity from small projects with overall capital costs of R500 million to large projects with total capital expenditures exceeding R15 billion. Figure 3 indicates the distribution of the number of projects, evaluated as a function of various capital expenditure ranges. The different phases of the projects are also indicated in the legend. Some projects were evaluated for more than one phase for which data was available. The bar chart therefore indicates 23 data points for the 20 projects that were evaluated.
Figure 3 indicates a spread in respect of the capital expenditure, with two or three projects in each cost bracket. There were no projects of more than R10 billion for which data was available for the pre-feasibility studies phase.
4.2 Risk identification
Various methods or techniques to identify risk events are discussed in the literature; brainstorming and interviewing are probably the most well-known in project risk management. Respondents were asked to indicate which techniques were used on the project; the results are shown in Figure 4.
It is evident from Figure 4 that some projects used more than just one technique to identify risks, especially during the feasibility stage of the projects. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis technique is often used to identify strategic risks in a company or projects, but only one project used this technique.
Figure 4 indicates that the brainstorming and document reviews techniques were mostly used to identify risk events. The following identification techniques that were mentioned in the questionnaires were not used by any of the 20 projects in any of the project phases:
- Delphi technique
- Interviewing
- Root cause identification
- Cause and effect diagrams
- Influence diagrams
- Risk charting
The second most frequently used method for identification was documentation reviews. These reviews were done on completion of the project study phases, and highlighted any shortcomings and uncertainties that could not be identified by the project teams due to possible 'industrial blindness'. The documentation review technique proved to be beneficial in ensuring consistency in the quality of the information reflected in the project study reports, including the risk management processes. The documentation reviews do, however, rely on the availability of key personnel who, through their experience, can highlight any potential issues or shortcomings.
4.3 Opportunity identification
Interviewees from the 20 projects were also asked to indicate whether opportunities were identified as part of the risk identification process, or elsewhere. All of the projects investigated, however, showed that opportunities were very poorly identified. Only one of the projects indicated any identified opportunities, and they all related to possible capital cost savings.
The perceptions of the project personnel interviewed also indicated a general misconception about the subject of uncertainty management. The majority of the project personnel interviewed did not show any awareness about identifying opportunities relating to the project studies. It is the opinion of the authors that this misconception is primarily driven by the impression that the project teams have about the mining legislation, which requires issue- and task-based risk assessments for work before the work can be undertaken. These assessments are traditionally focused on identifying possible situations or issues that could injure personnel, damage property, or prevent the successful completion of the tasks required.
In most of the projects, brainstorming sessions were only scheduled towards the latter half of the particular project study phase. This approach prevented the project teams from managing and mitigating the identified risks timeously, and this information could only be used in the project phase that followed on the one investigated. This approach sterilised certain opportunities that could have significantly improved the project - and, furthermore, it did not mitigate high risk issues at a stage in the project when potential changes in scope and planning would have had minimal impact.
4.4 Qualitative risk analysis
The tools and techniques that were used on the project studies to complete the qualitative risk analyses are indicated in Figure 5.
All the project studies investigated indicated the use of probability impact assessments in conjunction with probability impact matrices. These techniques have been well-developed within the mining industry, and are specifically used to identify safety, health, and environmental (SHE) hazards, and unwanted events. A number of projects also used the categorisation assessment technique that is used in conjunction with other methods.
4.5 Quantitative risk analysis
The techniques used for quantitative risk analysis are indicated in the bar chart in Figure 6. Most of these techniques are mentioned in the PMBoK guide [4].
Twelve of the project studies that were investigated used the expected monetary value (EMV) technique to calculate the contingency required to complete the projects successfully. The data used in these was triangular probability distributions that indicated optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic values. Two of the project studies also used statistical data from previously executed projects and well-developed financial and economic indicators, in conjunction with the data collected from the workshop. A Monte Carlo simulation was then used to calculate the required contingency for the capital expenditure. Wood [11] and Schuyler [12] provide guidance in performing cost risk simulations.
5 PROPOSED UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT PROCESS 5.1 Overview of proposed process
The proposed uncertainty management process was developed by attempting to 'look back' through the study process from the final deliverable perspective. The process is therefore primarily outcomes-based; and through its application it attempts to focus the project study team's thoughts and all other processes on the final deliverable.
The accuracy of these final deliverables is directly impacted by the accuracy of the basic parameters used to evaluate projects. The accuracy of the final project study deliverable, which normally is the projected net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), should be expressed as a function of the individual input parameters.
Using this deliverable and basic parameter accuracy requirement as the basis for the development of the new uncertainty management process, the authors propose that uncertainty management should form the basis (backbone) of the project study phase. This proposed uncertainty management process is illustrated in Figure 7.
By taking account of uncertainties relating to the various alternatives, the process of modelling all possible project alternatives makes it possible to identify the project alternative that has the highest probability of achieving success. These modelling and simulation techniques are the basis for developing options throughout the project study, and for final project selection and evaluation.
The proposed process helps the project team to focus on the final project phase deliverables. As well as defining the deliverables of the project phase, the process should decrease the time required to complete the project study phase, as unnecessary time spent on options and derivatives that do not increase the final value of the project or accuracy of the study phase deliverables can be rapidly discarded. The various sub-processes shown in Figure 7 are described briefly below.
5.2 Discussion of sub-processes
5.2.1 Identify requirements and constraints
It is important to identify and define the project requirements, assumptions, and constraints to ensure that the project objectives and deliverables are achieved.
Project requirements
The requirements for the project (needs) should be well understood and quantifiable so that the project team can apply the proposed process. The traditional primary requirement for a project in the mining environment is the need to increase shareholder value, and therefore to maximise the net present value (NPV) or the internal rate of return (IRR) for the projects and for the company. This requirement can be accurately quantified by describing the project by means of a financial model that calculates the forecasted project NPV and IRR. The impact on the company NPV should also be determined and considered in the decision process.
Assumptions and constraints
The assumptions and constraints that could potentially impact on the project can be divided into the following categories:
- Assumptions
- Physical constraints
- Imposed constraints
- Technical constraints
Assumptions and constraints need to be quantified from the start of the project study to ensure that these can be incorporated as 'boundaries of investigation' into the model representing the project study.
5.2.2 Develop the model
A model is developed with the ultimate project requirement as an output. In general, this model will be based on a financial model with the project NPV as an output. The inputs for the model should include the assumptions and constraints that were defined during the initiation phase. These need to be represented as uncertainty ranges with the limits defined by the constraints and assumptions.
The model also needs to define the major technical attributes of the proposed project. It is important, however, not to over-define these attributes, as this could prevent the realisation of the highest potential project outcome. These technical values should not be restrained by traditional achieved technical outputs, as this could also prevent the project from realising its highest possible output value.
5.2.3 Identify major drivers
Once the project model has been defined with the various uncertainties, constraints, and assumptions defined, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), described by Wood [11], can be performed. Using this model, the assumptions and constraints that have the biggest influence on the project outcome (NPV) can be determined using the correlation coefficients for the various inputs.
The project team should focus on the technical constraints with the highest correlation coefficients, as these have the highest likelihood of improving the project NPV. Conversely, the negative risk associated with these highly correlated inputs needs to be mitigated, primarily to ensure that the highest potential NPV can be achieved.
5.2.4 Develop technical solutions
Once the uncertainties have been identified and ranked as described above, the next step is to develop technical solutions (plans) to further define and optimise the model input values that were defined during the identification phase.
Should it be necessary to evaluate alternative technical solutions against one another, this can be done through the development of a decision tree analysis, as described by Schuyler [12]. The modelling and evaluation process should be completed for each option, and finally weighed one against another to determine the optimal alternative.
5.2.5 Re-evaluate the project using modified inputs
Once the technical solution has been further defined and the inputs of the model have been adjusted accordingly, a re-run is performed. The probability distributions of the major project aspects are then recalculated.
5.2.6 Project evaluation
Generally, project studies have to comply with requirements defined by the client or by industry norms to complete a certain study phase. These requirements are functions of the accuracy and definition of the various aspects of the project. If the project does not comply with these requirements, the project should be returned to the third step in the process: the identification of the major drivers. The project should then progress again through the various steps until the requirements have been fulfilled.
This iterative process occurs naturally, but in an uncontrolled way, during project studies. Using the process proposed here encourages the project team to proceed with these iterative processes in a controlled manner. This process will also ensure that the client's expectations about the project are maximised by continually referring back to the model that describes the project.
Risk management is used extensively throughout the mining and project management industry, mainly due to the focus on safety risk management in the mining industry. Existing techniques and methods in the various sub-processes were used and slightly modified to ensure acceptance by the various project teams.
6.1 Identify requirements and constraints
The requirements and constraints of the mining study that is being developed are normally defined and listed within the charter of the project. An additional clarification session should be held with all project stakeholders to ensure that alignment and agreement is obtained before the study begins, and to ensure that the correct requirements and constraints have been identified.
6.2 Develop financial model
As discussed earlier, the main purpose for executing a mining project study is to identify and develop mining studies to maximise or increase the financial value of a mine or mining company. For this reason, the financial evaluation process is the most critical part of the proposed process.
The financial evaluation should use a model that is specifically developed for the project. This model should be developed so that all uncertainties can be represented and the impact on the financial outcome determined. These uncertainties can easily be incorporated into the financial model by using probabilistic costing methods, such as the Monte Carlo simulation method. Computer software like Crystal Ball [13], @Risk [14] or something similar can be used for the cost simulation.
6.3 Uncertainty identification
Risk identification in a typical mining environment is done using brainstorming workshops with project team members, subject-matter experts, and various personnel involved in the day-to-day management of the system being assessed. It is therefore recommended that the process used to identify the uncertainties on the project use this same technique, ensuring that the team members involved are focused on identifying various uncertainties.
6.4 Qualitative uncertainty analysis
The same methodology of using existing familiar techniques that are currently being used within the industry will be applied to the qualitative uncertainty analysis sub-process. The technique that is currently used successfully throughout the mining industry is the probability-impact matrix assessment. The typical matrix should, however, be modified to focus on uncertainty rather than only on threats. This matrix is indicated in Table 1.
The numbers in the risk matrix represent a risk ranking, with 25 being the highest and 1 the lowest ranking. This matrix allows the risk to be ranked, to determine the most important (critical) risk events that require further attention and treatment.
6.5 Quantitative uncertainty analysis
The technique used for the quantitative uncertainty analysis for project evaluation purposes is the Monte Carlo simulation. Such simulation techniques have proved their value in various industries, and have been used very successfully in a very limited manner in the techno-economic evaluation of mining projects in recent years.
In order to test this process, a pre-feasibility study was undertaken, using this process as the basis. The process steps are discussed in more detail below.
7.1 Identification of requirements and constraints
The primary requirement from the client, on whose behalf the pre-feasibility was undertaken, was to ensure that the project returned the maximum possible net present value (NPV). This requirement would therefore be the final output of the model that had to be developed. In this case, the client had a well-developed set of macro-economic values, including future forecasted values. These values were used directly in the financial model that was developed.
An initial uncertainty workshop was held with the client representatives and key project personnel in order to further define the constraints that would be imposed on the project. These constraints, which had been obtained during the conceptual phase of the project, were used as the basis for the initial uncertainties in the financial model. These uncertainties included:
- Production capacity
- Mining area
- Annual capital cash flow constraints
- Mining methods
- Labour availability
- Available infrastructure capacities
These constraints were then all quantified, and the uncertainties that would be applied to all of these were agreed with the client.
7.2 Modelling of uncertainties
A financial model was then developed, based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method with all the requirements, assumptions, and constraints captured. This model was then verified against a benchmark model used by the client to ensure that the output information was accurate. The benchmark model of the client could not accommodate any form of uncertainty, and all input uncertainties in the model developed had to be modelled with single values. The two models, however, correlated accurately, and the financial model could therefore be accepted as accurate.
7.3 Identify major drivers
This model was then used to identify the major drivers of the project. A tornado chart or graph can be used to visualise the effect of a change in the value of an input parameter on the change in the output of a model. The input parameters of a model should be selected as independent parameters if possible. However, quite often some input parameters or variables of a model are not independent or uncorrelated, and the extent of dependence can be expressed as the co-variance or correlation. If correlation exists in a model, the model has to be adapted to accommodate this dependency of input variables. In simulation models, functions are provided by the software (such as Crystal Ball [13] or @Risk [14]) to incorporate correlation and calculate the output variables accordingly.
The major drivers for the test project were determined using the model. The effect on the output of the financial model is shown in a tornado graph in Figure 8.
From the information available to the project team, it was evident that the specific project was highly sensitive to operating and capital costs. These two areas therefore provided the focus for the project team in the next step of the process.
7.4 Develop technical solution
With the information available to the project team, opportunities to decrease both the operating and capital costs were investigated and realised. The majority of these related to the operating costs. The operational cost aspects of the project were not initially in the project team's scope, as the project was a brownfield extension of an existing mine. Operating costs and mining strategies were therefore assumed to be similar to the existing facilities. However, once the client appreciated the importance of managing the uncertainties relating to the operating costs, this was included in the project team's scope.
7.5 Re-evaluation of project
The project was then re-evaluated using the model, and the revised input constraints as defined and modified through the technical solutions were incorporated. To assess the accuracy level of the overall project study, the capital cost estimate and implementation timing were depicted using S-curve profiles obtained through a simulation. The project team also developed NPV and IRR distributions using Monte Carlo simulations.
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) techniques for decision-making in projects have been developed and used for the more than two decades since the software became available on desktop computers. Naeini & Heravi [15] used MCS in conjunction with earned value methods to develop probabilistic forecasts for project costs at different stages of the project. Savvides [16] used MCS to analyse and assess risk in investment projects.
Risk assessment for operations or projects is generally not done by individuals, due to the risk perceptions of individuals. It is recommended that the allocation of probability (or likelihood) and consequence (or impact) values should be done by a risk team that comprises different individuals from a variety of disciplines and hierarchical levels in the organisation or project. In a similar way, the estimates for the parameters of a probability distribution that are used for uncertain cost values - such as triangular distribution, lognormal distribution, or normal distribution - should be estimated by a risk team that is assembled for this special purpose. Certain cost and revenue values for the project can be estimated from similar projects that have been completed. Average costs and standard deviation values can be determined for a number of past projects, and then used for the parameters of the normal distribution after adjustment for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.
For new projects, the risk team would not have historical data to use to allocate the parameters of the distributions, and could have recourse to the method of expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is defined by O'Hagan et al [17] as "the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution". A discussion of elicitation techniques is beyond the scope of this paper, but a thorough treatment of the subject is provided by O'Hagan et al. [17] and Clemen [18]..
Using the input parameters of the cost and revenue distributions as estimated by the project team, the output probability distribution for the internal rate of return (IRR) for the study project is shown in Figure 9.
The output of a Monte Carlo simulation is typically a probability density function (PDF) - as shown in Figure 9 - as well as a cumulative distribution function (CDF). From these distribution functions it was determined that this specific test project had a 29 per cent probability of exceeding the client hurdle rate of 11.5 per cent for IRR. The project therefore had a 71 per cent chance of providing an IRR of less than 11.5 per cent.
7.6 Project evaluation
On completion of the re-evaluation of the project, the project manager led a review of the project status with the following key project personnel:
- Project risk manager
- Lead civil engineer
- Lead mining engineer
- Lead mechanical engineer
- Project estimator
The project was then evaluated against the criteria specified by the client, and found not to be within acceptable levels. This required the project team to restart the process and to define the project deliverables further.
The project returned for a second time to the review step, and found it to be within acceptable levels for a pre-feasibility study. The study did, however, indicate that the project should not progress to feasibility phase, as the probability of exceeding the required hurdle rate was low, and the mean expected net present value (NPV) was -R348 million.
8.1 Investigation of 20 projects
Data obtained from 20 mining projects was analysed for various phases of typical project risk management processes. The data was analysed for different project phases, i.e. feasibility studies, pre-feasibility studies, and concept studies. The main conclusions from the results of this investigation were:
- Brainstorming and document reviews were mostly used as identification techniques during the three project phases. Flow charts were also used by a number of projects, but only for feasibility studies.
- Three of the four qualitative risk analysis techniques that were presented to respondents were used on the projects during all three project phases.
- The expected monetary value (EMV) technique was mostly used by the projects during the feasibility studies project phase. Risk simulation and decision analysis were only used by two projects each.
- Opportunities were rarely identified in these projects.
These results indicate that project teams for the 20 projects used only a few of the tools and techniques that are available for risk identification, qualitative risk analysis, and quantitative analysis. This is an indication that uncertainties - in particular, possible opportunities - that relate to typical mining project studies are not well understood or managed. Brainstorming is a quick and effective technique for identifying risks and opportunities, but the sessions were mostly held later in the project phase, and so could only impact the next phase.
Implementation of the proposed uncertainty management process could help project teams and mining companies to:
- Better understand and comprehend the uncertainties driving typical mining project studies
- Develop project studies faster by focusing on the project aspects that have a high influence on the project goals
- Identify opportunities that could possibly improve the project study outcomes
- Improve the project outcomes to be in line with the initial requirements specified by the client
8.2 Testing of the proposed uncertainty management process
Even though the proposed uncertainty management process was used for the test project, it did not progress to the next project phase. The process could, however, be viewed as a success. The project study was completed substantially faster (about 30 per cent) than originally expected. This turnaround time should improve with future project studies, as there as a substantial learning curve throughout this initial process. The alternative method of presenting the project data was also well accepted by the client organisation, even though some additional explanation was required.
A reduced project study time and reduced study costs can be expected if the proposed uncertainty management process is applied. The process does not require many additional resources, but the project team should explore other methods of risk and opportunity identification in addition to the brainstorming and document reviews. However, it should be remembered that study costs are a direct function of the percentage of engineering design completed for the study. For some project studies, therefore, the cost might not reduce significantly, if at all. The uncertainty management process could also help to decrease the possibility of project teams being too optimistic, thus enabling them to deliver more realistic estimates for project outcomes.
8.3 Recommendations
Many large projects use project risk management as an integrated sub-process of project management to deal with uncertainties in the project environment. The intent of the PMBoK guide was that risk management in a project should not be an add-on, but an integrated process. However, risk teams do not always implement risk management as a priority, and the outputs of such projects often suffer the consequences, being completed late or over budget.
The proposed uncertainty management process was tested on only one project. It should be implemented on more mining projects, and further refined and developed if needed. The process could improve the outcome of mining projects, and could be implemented in other industries if it is found to improve project outcomes and to be cost effective.
[1] Paulos, J.A. 2000. A mathematician plays the stock market, Basic Books, New York. [ Links ]
[2] Borge, D. 2001. The book of risk, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. [ Links ]
[3] Meredith, J. & Mantel, S. 2002. Project management: A managerial approach, 5th edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken. [ Links ]
[4] Project Management Institute. 2004. A guide to the project management body of knowledge, 3rd edition, PMI Inc., Pennsylvania. [ Links ]
[5] Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand. 2004. Standard AS/NZS 4360. Risk management. [ Links ]
[6] International Organization for Standardization. 2009. Standard ISO 31000. Risk management - uidelines on principles and implementation of risk management. [ Links ]
[7] Ward, S. & Chapman, C. 2001. Transforming project risk management into uncertainty management, International Journal of Project Management, 21, pp. 97-105. [ Links ]
[8] Chapman, C. 2005. Key points of contention in framing assumptions for risk and uncertainty management, International Journal of Project Management, 24, pp. 303-313. [ Links ]
[9] Hillson, D. 2002. Extending the risk process to manage opportunities, International Journal of Project Management, 20, pp. 235-240. [ Links ]
[10] Jaafari, A. 1999. Management of risks, uncertainties and opportunities on projects: Time for a fundamental shift, International Journal of Project Management, 19, pp. 89-101. [ Links ]
[11] Wood, D.S. 2002. Risk simulation techniques to aid project cost and time planning and management, Risk Management, 4(1) pp. 41-60. [ Links ]
[12] Schuyler, J. 2001. Risk and decision analysis in projects, 2nd edition, Project Management Institute. [ Links ]
[13] Oracle. 2014. Oracle Crystal Ball, URL: http://www.oracle.com/us/products/applications/crystalball/overview/index.html [ Links ]
[14] Palisade Corporation. 2012. Monte Carlo Simulation, URL: http://www.palisade.com/risk/monte_carlo_simulation.asp. [ Links ]
[15] Naeini, M.E. & Heravi, G. 2011. Probabilistic model development for project performance forecasting, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 58 (5) pp. 396-401. [ Links ]
[16] Savvides, S.C. 1994. Risk analysis in investment appraisal, Project Appraisal Journal, 9(1), pp. 318. [ Links ]
[17] O'Hagan, A., Buck, C.E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J.R., Garthwaite, P.H., Jenkinson, D.J., Oakley, J.E. and Rakow, T. 2006. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, Wiley. [ Links ]
[18] Clemen, R.T. 1997. Making hard decisions: An introduction to decision analysis, 2nd edition, Duxbury. [ Links ]
* Corresponding author


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|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
|Photo credit: The Usual Suspects SA/Rick's Cafe
Love this movie. We watch it once a year during the holiday season.
Alright, the moment of truth...I've heard about this movie...and yet never had the opportunity to enjoy such an apparent classic.
Beth...this weekend, I'll be looking for this at the dvd store...you've put it on my radar. Thanks.
Have a wonderful day,
Love, love, love this movie...it was one of the first movies my husband and I saw together on a date in a Classics movie marathon at college. Fun to see all this. Happy Thanksgiving, Beth!
The movie is truly a classic; how fun to visit Rick's in Morocco!
Happy Thanksgiving!
You have excellent taste, Beth.
I had no idea that Rick's Café was real! Thank you for sharing some of the magic with us.
When I visited Casablanca I was a little bit disappointed. I expected the city more traditional. Instead, I found all the color and tradition in Marrakesh. I loved this city. Lovely pictures.
Great movie. Glad you got to experience Rick's Cafe in person.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Wow. I would love to visit Morocco! Lucky gal, visiting these haunts!
Angela @ The Bookshelf Muse
How cool is that?! I love Casablanca--the movie, that is...
That is one seriously awesome movie. All of these quotes can't help but make me smile.
One of my all-time favorites!
What a great trip you had!
I love Casablanca...what a wonderful trip this must have been! Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
How wonderful you went there! It looks just like I remember it from the film. I actually got to see Casablanca in a movie theater last year; they played it for one night in this cool indie theater. It was as good as I'd heard.
I love the movie, and I've only just recently watched it for the first time! But I'll certainly be watching it again. How fun that you got to experience these places firsthand!
Casablanca is a magical movie.
And Morocco must be a beautiful and magical place. How lovely that you were able to visit it.
I have to admit, just as Foodessa, I have not seen this movie. Sounds like I need to rent it and plan for an entertaining evening :)
I've never watched the movie. Now you've peaked my interest. It would a good one to see over the holidays. :)
Oh, I love this movie to bits. It's a rainy Saturday afternoon here, and I think I've just worked out what I'm going to do with it.
I absolutely loved Morocco, and I started in Casablanca too. I was backpacking around France/Italy when I got an email from a friend asking if I'd like to meet her in Casablanca. A girl might only get asked that once in her lifetime, so off I ran!
love your travel memory posts :-)
How incredibly cool! It looks just like I remember it in the movie. Very, very cool.
I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving holiday!
Great movie! How awesome that you were able to see this place! Hope your Thanksgiving was relaxing and fun. :)
I have been intrigued by Morocco for years, but can you believe I've never seen Casablanca!? What a shame, I know! I am going to try to rent it tomorrow...thank you for sharing your trip with us!
What fun! And that movie is an all time favorite!
What a cool, fun trip.
Beth,I gave you an award so if you're interested, check out my blog for details :)
Somehow i have never seen the movie, I'm ashamed to say! I have just added it to my list of 'must sees'...
That was so fun to see real photos with the quotes. I agree...fabulous movie.
I LOVE Casablanca the movie! I am so envious that you have been to Ricks. You have mentioned most of my fave quotes - my two faves are the one about the waters you have above, and the other when Colonel Strasser is questioning Rick, and he states that his nationaility is a drunkard before he looks at the German dossier on him and asks, "Are my eyes really brown?"


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I just got an email from the BLM, containing a "PRESS RELEASE" and other letters etc. dated 1.25.18, about the proposed land swap between the BLM and the Agua Caliente Indians in Palm Springs. I think this first surfaced, if my memory serves me correct, about 2-3 years ago. Some of the affected parcels looked like they may affect future access to the bottom/north end of Palm Canyon and parts of the lower section of Skyline. Now, without seeing any of the revised maps, I may be overstepping my mark here but I think this is a very important concern for all trail user groups.
I emailed the lady at the BLM office to see if they had a link to the affected exchange parcels so I could understand the whole 'swap-thing' more clearly. I'm not sure if anybody else in the forum has received this same email but I think it's gonna be really important for everyone who uses the trails in the desert around Palm springs to ensure continued access to those areas.
Here's a link you can use to see the release but the 'map' link won't work on my browser??
https://eplanning.blm.gov/epl-front-off ... e880f06895
Anybody else got any input/thoughts on this??


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Situation: a piece of software reads frames of data from a file in a seperate thread and puts it on a queue, emptied by another thread. That second thread periodically checks on the queue and fails rather gracefully, by showing an error message stating the read timed out, if no data is available within a certain amount of time. Initially this timeout was set to 200mSec. There was no real reasoning behind that constant though, but it worked fine. We measured on a couple of machines and for large data frames, larger than what would be used by customers, a read took like 20mSec whith no other load on the machine.
However one customer now gets timeout errors now and then (on the second try all is fine, probably the file is in cache or the virus scanner leaves it alone). The programmers are like 'well, yeah, but that customer's machine is full of cruft, virus scanners, tons of unneeded background processes etc'. Of course the customer is like 'hey this should just work, shouldn't it'? While the programers have a point, since the software is heavy enough to validate the need for a dedicated machine, that does not make the customer happy.
Increasing the timeout to 2 seconds, for example, solves the problem. But I'd like to make a proper decision now instead of just randomly pick some magic constant that is probably ok in 99% of cases. What criteria should be used for that? We could just pick a large number, but that feels wrong. (and then we end up with a program that has the horrible bahaviour of hanging when trying to read from a disconnected drive for instance, whereas we'd rather make it show an error right away). Or we could make the timeout value a user setting, but then we need to ducument it clearly and even then not all customers are tech savy enough to really understand what it does. Or we could try and wait until another customer reports timeouts and increase the value again. And again. Until we find something ok for 99.99% of the cases.. Any good practice for this type of situation?


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Dec 2015
Innovations in Financing Mechanisms for Demand Driven Agricultural Advisory Services: Evolution of the Danish model
The study describes the historic development of the Danish Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS). This is the case of a national advisory system owned and managed by the farmer organizations and financed with public subsidies combined with farmer/user payments, gradually developed to full user payment. The links and relations between the empowerment of farmers and their organizations, their evolving roles in advisory systems, and the innovative financial mechanisms in extension, especially pull-mechanisms, are analyzed.
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Is Aid to Agricultural Innovation a Priority for the International Community?
While the Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) initiative provides data and analysis of domestic public and private spending on agricultural research and development for a wide range of developing countries, the literature pays little attention, if any, to foreign assistance to agricultural, fishing and forestry research and agricultural extension. The objective of the present study is to fill this gap and offer a comprehensive analysis of 2002 to 2012 OECD data on foreign assistance to research and extension in agriculture, forestry and fishing.
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Enabling Capacities to Innovate with a System-wide Assessment Process
This report establishes the concept of the capacity to innovate, which depends not only on hard technical capacities, but also softer functional capacities across the individual, organizational, and enabling environment scales. It argues that developing country-level innovation capacity requires an iterative capacity development process based around assessment. After reviewing the relevant assessment methods and tools, a general framework for assessing the capacity to innovate is proposed and applicable tools are suggested that explore key areas that influence the capacity to innovate.
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A Shift In Global Perspective: Institutionalizing Farmer Field Schools
The Farmer Field School (FFS) approach has been very successful and witnessed a strong expansion in many areas beyond crop production. Notwithstanding this success, the adoption of FFS in national extension often remains problematic and FFS activities have often been implemented in the margin of national institutions with strong reliance on donor funding. The creation of an enabling environment for institutional support is essential for expanding the effort, improving quality, and strengthening impact and continuity of the FFSs. This paper aims to analyse opportunities, challenges and implications of institutionalizing FFS at the national level.
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Gfras good practice note for extension and advisory services: Videos for Agricultural Extension
Information about extension and new methodologies for implementation is often scattered and presented in complex academic language. Practitioners, who often have very limited time and/or may only have basic formal education, find it difficult to make use of this information. The Global Good Practices Initiative aims to bridge this gap by providing information about extension approaches and methods in easy-to-understand formats.
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Enhancing the potential of family farming for poverty reduction and food security through gender-sensitive rural advisory services
Rural advisory services (RAS) can play an important role in addressing gender inequalities. However, RAS programmes have often fallen short of expectations to design and implement relevant services to help rural women and men achieve food security and generate more income. This paper is based on an examination of a broad selection of existing literature on gender-sensitive RAS. It looks at gender-differentiated barriers in access to RAS and explores the challenges of effectively targeting women family farmers when delivering these services.
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Introducing the farm business school - A training package
The Farm Business School (FBS) was developed to assist extension workers, public or private, to more effectively work with farmers to provide them with the skills to respond to market demands. This publication comprises a collection of training materials that include: i) an orientation programme for policy makers and programme managers, ii) a short training (1 day or 7 days) for facilitators to set up and run farm business schools, (iii) a handbook aimed at providing guidance to trainers to design and implement the programme, and iv) a manual of training exercises.
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Investment requirements in extension to achieve Zero Hunger and adapt to climate change
The study reflects on previous World Bank and FAO reports that made the general recommendation to set both research and extension investment targets in developing countries at 1% of agricultural gross domestic product (AgGDP). In order to define proxies for country-specific extension investment targets, authors developed an extension investment model (EIM) based on socio-economic macro-indicators (poverty, undernourishment, access to information and population density) and a method to define estimates for cost increases related to climate change.
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Butler will have to repay a large amount of money to Vogel Disposal Service.
A Vogel company bookkeeper discovered that the company overpaid the city about $85,000 in administration fees over the last four years.
The administrative fees had been mistakenly paid from commercial garbage collection fees in addition to the residential fees.
Vogel pays the city a percentage of its receipts from residential garbage collection fees to cover the cost of resolving disputes, city officials said.
Tom Breth, the city's solicitor who also represents Vogel, said the company is willing to discuss the repayment.
Butler Mayor Ben Smith said the city didn't receive or spend the money all at once so it won't be paid back all at once.
A full story will appear in the Butler Eagle.


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Boosting Your Bottom Line: Forget Guesswork — Tracking Boosts Reliability
EP Editorial Staff | September 18, 2013
Improving your plant's reliability is a gift that keeps on giving. In implementing effective motor management practices, you make your job as a maintenance professional easier by improving operating and production performance, lowering maintenance costs and reducing equipment downtime. The first step toward greater relia-bility is to conduct a plant-wide motor survey that records basic, but crucial, data about your motor fleet.
It's worth the time
Although conducting a motor survey and implementing a tracking program may seem daunting, remember that it's not necessary to survey every motor in the facility. If your site has many motors, it could make sense to start with equipment running the most critical applications, units with the longest run-times or highest failure rates, or simply the oldest ones.
Maintaining a log of motor repairs through a tracking program can help flag opportunities to repair or replace motors before failure, during scheduled downtime. Some facilities have reported that it's not unusual for a motor to be repaired and then installed in a different application in another part of the plant. Tracking programs record the unit's history to help predict reliability or prevent misapplication. Your local motor-service expert can help you with a motor inventory.
Free help is available
There are also a number of motor tracking resources available that will not only make your life easier, but are free to download. One of the best-known tools is MotorMaster+ 4.0*, created by Washington State University through a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE). This software is a comprehensive program that enables you to create a detailed motor database. You can use the database to make data-driven decisions for long-term savings. It also contains important manufacturer information for more than 20,000 motors.
What's next?
A motor survey and tracking program are the first steps in developing a motor management plan. Simply put, you can only manage a motor fleet if you know what's in it and monitor changes over time. That's where Motor Decisions MatterSM (MDM) can help.
The MDM Motor Planning Kit, available as a free download at www.motorsmatter.org, explains the fundamentals of motor management and helps you get started. The MDM 1·2·3 Approach software tool includes a motor inventory sheet that runs simple calculations and provides motor reports and tags, using sample data from customer plants and facilities. Additionally, MDM has a comprehensive case-study library with numerous examples of how customers saved money and energy by implementing motor management strategies, beginning with a motor inventory. Start tracking today, and enjoy the long-term benefits of increased reliability. MT
* MotorMaster+ 4.0 is available here.
The Motor Decisions Matter (MDM)campaign is managed by the Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE), a North American nonprofit organization that promotes energy-saving products, equipment and technologies. For further information, contact MDM staff at firstname.lastname@example.com or (617) 589-3949.


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Mark, the narrator of James Sturm's Off Season, wouldn't classify himself as elite, liberal or otherwise. He's a builder in Vermont, going through a personal crisis just as the presidential campaign enters the home stretch. "It's hard to believe it was only three months ago that Lisa and I were together and both for Bernie," he notes in the first chapter, which originally appeared on Slate in September 2016, with Election Day on the horizon. Separation from his wife means getting his own apartment, which means selling his truck, which means working for contractors like Mick, perpetually late with the check and with a Bernie Sanders bumper sticker on his BMW station wagon.
The class conflict is palpable. With Sanders out of the running, Mark isn't sure whom to support. His wife knocks on doors for Clinton, but their marital split (she's "got the house, the rich parents, and plenty of time") sours his view of the candidate. (Hillary's campaign slogan, "Stronger Together," gives the chapter its ironic title.) "Not that I'd vote for Trump," he tells himself. "But at least he's his own man." When their young daughter, Suzie, tells him he has to choose, he just says: "I did pick someone." End of conversation.
Divided into 13 emotionally stunning chapters, its gorgeous blue-gray ink washes evoking the New England winter, "Off Season" is a revelation. Sturm's earlier graphic novels, The Golem's Mighty Swing (2001) and Market Day (2010), are set safely in the past. Off Season is the more vital work, a seamless contemporary take on economic despair, political confusion and the challenges of parenting. Mark's dislike of Clinton would make his story a nonstarter for Alex and Michael, but he lives in a reality that they barely graze as they zip around the country taking selfies. "Would anything have changed anything?" Mark wonders, reflecting on missteps in his marriage; the words resonate, seeming to encompass the country as a whole.
Off Season includes chapters that weren't in the original online serialization, as well as smaller adjustments. The most telling tweak is to the last frame of a six-panel chapter entitled "It's Not Over." Mark is leaving a message for Lisa the day after the election, sincerely upset for her. In its original form, each of the last four panels carries one sentence: "I hope you're all right. Call me, O.K.? I love you. It's going to be all right." The book version cuts the last one. Instead, Sturm gives us a panel of silence, Mark with the phone to his ear.
The visual aspect of comics makes them particularly well suited to capturing our digital lives. If Instagram is the inane god Alex and Michael propitiate in "Amongst the Liberal Elite," Facebook is a sort of demonic secret sharer in Off Season, drawing out our worst impulses. A child care issue, post-inauguration, escalates in Mark criticizing Lisa: "I don't have the luxury of spending all day on Facebook planning the revolution." Later Mark falls into a dark text spiral while trying to get hold of well-heeled Mick for an overdue check ("What's going on??" "Any day now"); he blows up when he sees Mick's status update: "Flew out to Vineyard for a steak dinner and the Avett Brothers with my buddy Ron. 3rd row!" In one cruelly believable panel, Sturm identifies a tech-driven source of populist rage.
In the book's single glimpse of Trump — a frame from a televised debate — he's depicted as a literal pig. The grotesque drawing is all the more shocking because it reminds the reader (some 50 pages in) that Sturm has drawn all the characters in Off Season as animals — dogs, specifically. (It's perhaps no coincidence that Americans appear as dogs in Art Spiegelman's Maus.) At one point, Mark recalls listening to a theater troupe describe how "using animals as stand-ins is as old as storytelling … As an actor, it's liberating to wear the mask." The reader, too, falls under a spell: The soulful faces of Sturm's nonhuman, all-too-human characters ask us to withhold judgment, hear out the other sides of the story.


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In October, University of Texas at Austin Psychology Professor Marc Lewis brought his freshman Plan II Honors class on a trip to the Ransom Center. Professor Lewis has won numerous teaching awards, including the Regents' Outstanding
Teaching Award and the President's Associates Teaching Excellence Award. Below, Professor Lewis writes about his class's private tour of the Ransom Center, led by Director Thomas F. Staley.
Over 30 years of teaching, I can remember many occasions where students were excited and interested, but my Plan II Honors Signature class's visit to the Ransom Center on October 4 marks the first time that I have heard audible gasps of astonishment. The class arrived with high expectations, knowing that even among the "gems of the university," the Ransom Center is unique. They had ordered an eclectic collection of treasures to view: the original manuscript of Arthur Conan Doyle's "A Scandal in Bohemia," a Shakespeare first folio, Robert De Niro's jacket from Taxi Driver, Volume 1 of the 1609 Douay Old Testament, original notes from a Woodward and Bernstein interview with Deep Throat, Abraham Ortelius's 500-year-old map of the New World, a set of original architectural drawings by Frank Lloyd Wright, and various other rare items. The students came expecting that those exhibits would be the highlight of the day; what they did not expect was that the real magic would be a talk by Director Tom Staley followed by a personal tour of the closed, nonpublic sections of the building.
These freshmen students knew what they experiencing. As one student wrote afterwards: "Walking through rooms filled with original movie posters, books filled with presidential autographs, and other priceless historical artifacts spread casually along shelves was incredible in and of itself, but the places and people Dr. Staley took us to were even more remarkable. Seemingly without ever planning to do so, he showed us the full scope of the Ransom Center's activities and their significance, everything from the meticulous preservation of the cover from a first edition of The Great Gatsby to colorful sketches of Macy's parade floats from 40 or 50 years ago."
Another student was as struck by the excitement of the Center as fully as he was by the items: "Having a backstage pass with Director Tom Staley as guide was a spectacular experience. Simply observing his reactions to the artifacts we saw being restored revealed to me the passion that goes into maintaining this Center."
And: "Around a corner, we encountered an original poster for the 1962 film adaptation of To Kill a Mockingbird—you just don't find this sort of thing anywhere else. Sometime later in the trip, we were taken to a room where an ancient map a dozen-and-a-half feet long was undergoing a preservation process. You see this sort of artifact on the Discovery Channel and think, 'Oh, that's neat!' but it is only when you see it first-hand that you get a true appreciation for the talent, dedication, and effort that goes into it all."
Other students commented on the way that the Ransom Center's collections connect the dots to show artistic flows of thought: "The Ransom Center's pursuit of an understanding of the creative process and the artistic mind made me completely rethink the process of bringing together collections of art and writing."
These students had never seen anything like the Ransom Center, and I am pleased that they were wise enough to understand how rare an opportunity they were given. I understood that opportunity as well, and I am not embarrassed to admit that my own jaw dropped more than once during the visit. What an astounding afternoon.