text:
This afternoon the Muir Russell led Independent Climate Change Email Review delivered it's report. This is the last and most extensive of the investigations set up in the wake of the Climactic Research Unit email hack/leak which occurred last November (to conveniently become an international news scandal casting doubt on the scientific basis of anthropogenic climate change just before world leaders held the COP15 conference to negotiate – or rather fail to negotiate – a successor to the Kyoto Protocol).
The other investigations, by the House of Commons select committee, the Oxburgh Report, and the inquiry by Penn State University into the conduct of Michael Mann, one of the scientists prominently featured in the emails, had all previously found that Phil Jones and the CRU had not falsified data, engaged in research misconduct, or corrupted the peer review process as had been claimed by climate sceptics and mainstream media outlets (ranging from the Daily Mail to the Guardian in terms of political affiliation).
So what has the Muir Russell investigation concluded? Well…
Climate science is a matter of such global importance, that the highest standards of honesty, rigour and openness are needed in its conduct. On the specific allegations made against the behaviour of CRU scientists, we find that their rigour and honesty as scientists are not in doubt. In addition, we do not find that their behaviour has prejudiced the balance of advice given to policy makers. In particular, we did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.
On the allegation of withholding temperature data, we find that CRU was not in a position to withhold access to such data or tamper with it. We demonstrated that any independent researcher can download station data directly
from primary sources and undertake their own temperature trend analysis.
On the allegation of biased station selection and analysis, we find no evidence of bias. Our work indicates that analysis of global land temperature trends is robust to a range of station selections and to the use of adjusted or unadjusted data. The level of agreement between independent analyses is such that it is highly unlikely that CRU could have acted improperly to reach a predetermined outcome. Such action would have required collusion with multiple scientists in various independent organisations which we consider highly improbable.
The overall implication of the allegations was to cast doubt on the extent to which CRU"s work in this area could be trusted and should be relied upon and we find no evidence to support that implication.
The central implication of the allegations here is that in carrying out their work, both in the choices they made of data and the way in which it was handled, CRU scientists intended to bias the scientific conclusions towards a specific result and to set aside inconvenient evidence. More specifically, it was implied in the allegations that this should reduce the confidence ascribed to the conclusions in Chapter 6 of the IPCC 4th Report, Working Group 1 (WG1). We do not find that the way that data derived from tree rings is described and presented in IPCC AR4 and shown in its Figure 6.10 is misleading. In particular, on the question of the composition of temperature reconstructions, we found no evidence of exclusion of other published temperature reconstructions that would show a very different picture. The general discussion of sources of uncertainty in the text is extensive, including reference to divergence. In this respect it represented a significant advance on the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR).
On the allegation that the phenomenon of "divergence" may not have been properly taken into account when expressing the uncertainty associated with reconstructions, we are satisfied that it is not hidden and that the subject is openly and extensively discussed in the literature, including CRUpapers.
On the allegations in relation to withholding data, in particular concerning the small sample size of the tree ring data from the Yamal peninsula, CRU did not withhold the underlying raw data (having correctly directed the single request to the owners). But it is evidently true that access to the raw data was not simple until it was archived in 2009 and that this delay can rightly be criticized on general principles. In the interests of transparency, we believe that CRU should have ensured that the data they did not own, but on which their publications relied, was archived in a more timely way.
On the allegations that there was subversion of the peer review or editorial process we find no evidence to substantiate this in the three instances examined in detail. On the basis of the independent work we commissioned (see Appendix 5) on the nature of peer review, we conclude that it is not uncommon for strongly opposed and robustly expressed positions to be taken up in heavily contested areas of science. We take the view that such behaviour does not in general threaten the integrity of peer review or publication.
On the allegations that in two specific cases there had been a misuse by CRU scientists of the IPCC process, in presenting AR4 to the public and policy makers, we find that the allegations cannot be upheld. In addition to taking evidence from them and checking the relevant records of the IPCC process, we have consulted the relevant IPCC review Editors. Both the CRU scientists were part of large groups of scientists taking joint responsibility for the relevant IPCC Working Group texts, and were not in a position to determine individually the final wording and content.
So in line with the other three reports, the Muir Russell inquiry's main findings are that 1) The CRU scientists are honest researchers 2) The various allegations of data manipulation and/or fraud are entirely baseless 3) The HadCRU temp record has not been tampered with, and that any competent researcher could reproduce the CRU's results. Essentially this is another through vindication of the work undertaken by Jones and the CRU.
However, despite entirely clearing Jones and the CRU of the major accusations leveled at them by bloggers and journalists over the past nine months, it did make some criticisms of the way the CRU and UEA had acted with regards to complying with FoI requests, reporting that
But we do find that there has been a consistent pattern of failing to display the proper degree of openness, both on the part of the CRU scientists and on the part of the UEA, who failed to recognise not only the significance of statutory requirements but also the risk to the reputation of the University and, indeed, to the credibility of UK climate science.
and that
On the allegation that CRU does not appear to have acted in a way consistent with the spirit and intent of the FoIA or EIR, we find that there was unhelpfulness in responding to requests and evidence that e-mails might have been deleted in order to make them unavailable should a subsequent request be made for them. University senior management should have accepted more responsibility for implementing the required processes for
FoIA and EIR compliance.
It must be remembered when contemplating what the findings of the report mean, that the allegations against Jones and the CRU which had been widely disseminated across both the Internet and print media, were that they had falsified data to make their results concur with a preconceived position, that they had corrupted the peer review process preventing scientists with alternative views from having their work published in prestigious journals, that they had infiltrated and distorted the IPCC so that the IPCC's major reports reflected their alarmist position (based on their falsified data) and that the CRU email leak was a smoking gun which laid bare the fraudulent work of these dishonest scientists. The Muir Russell report's findings on all of these charges are that these claims are entirely baseless. That is (or ought to be) the story here.
The international 'scandal' surrounding the CRU leak was most certainly not based around the notion that honest, credible scientists who otherwise worked within best practices were based at an institution which didn't deal entirely correctly with freedom of information requests made by bloggers they didn't like (due to a history of the bloggers making inaccurate claims about their work). The headlines were based around the notion that the scandal cast doubt upon whether the planet was in fact warming as a result of human activity, not around how senior management at a university dealt with FoI requests.
As Raymond Bradley, director of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst states with regard to the scandal and the subsequent inquiries
The report by Sir Muir Russell et al confirms what everybody who has worked with Phil Jones and Keith Briffa knew all along – they are honest, hard-working scientists whose reputations have been unjustifiably smeared by allegations of unscrupulous behaviour. These allegations are soundly rejected by the report. If there is a scandal to be reported at all, it is this: the media stoked a controversy without properly investigating the issues, choosing to inflate trivialities to the level of an international scandal, without regard for the facts or individuals affected. This was a shameful chapter in the history of news reporting, and a lesson for those who are concerned about fair and honest communication with the public.


text:
Dr. Mike Adams, a criminology professor at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington and conservative columnist, will speak at 7:15 p.m. Thursday at Wabash College.
Adams, a regular columnist for Townhall.com, will speak in Hays Hall. The title of his talk will be "Threats to Liberty in Higher Education. His appearance is sponsored by The Commentary.
His speech will be followed by an opportunity to ask questions and a book signing.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
The Houston Dynamo announced today they have signed Dynamo Academy forward Bryan Salazar to a homegrown contract. Salazar becomes the fifth player from the Dynamo Academy, presented by Statoil, to sign a professional contract with the Dynamo first team. Per team and league policy, terms of the contract were not disclosed.
Salazar, a senior at Fort Bend Bush High School, has been in the Dynamo program for six years, having progressed from the Dynamo Junior Academy as a 13-year-old up to playing for the Dynamo U-18 squad over the past two seasons. The Houston native has traveled with the Academy to tournaments in El Salvador, Mexico and the Netherlands and was part of the Dynamo Academy U-16 squad that won the 2010 Dallas Cup.
"This is a dream come true," said the 18-year-old Salazar. "When I joined the Junior Academy, I was told this was my chance to be a professional and I'm excited this day has arrived. I want to thank everyone in the Dynamo Academy who helped me achieve my dream and I look forward to continuing my career under Dominic Kinnear."
PHOTOS: Look back at Salazar's career through the Dynamo Academy
This season, Salazar has scored nine goals in 14 games for a Dynamo U-18 squad that has won seven of its last nine matches and is in second place in its division. The 5-foot-9 winger scored five goals in three matches at the USSF Development Academy Winter Showcase in December, including two goals each against the Portland Timbers and San Jose Earthquakes U-18 squads.
"Brian is an exciting young player," said Dynamo head coach Dominic Kinnear. "When he gets the ball, he is not afraid to run at defenders. He has put up some good numbers with our Academy teams and I think he has a very promising future. We want him to succeed as a person and a professional and we will do everything we can to make sure that happens."
As part of the agreement, Salazar will finish high school and continue to play with the Dynamo Academy before joining the Dynamo full time this summer. Salazar is scheduled to travel to Charleston with the team this weekend for their first match of the Carolina Challenge Cup.
The Dynamo Academy, presented by Statoil, was launched in 2007 as a way to develop local talent in the Houston area with the goal of signing players to the Dynamo. Since 2007, four players have been signed to Dynamo homegrown contracts including: goalkeeper Tyler Deric and midfielders Francisco Navas Cobo, Alex Dixon and Josue Soto. Deric recently re-signed with the Dynamo after leading the team to a first place finish in the 2012-13 CONCACAF Champions League group stage.
"We are very excited about this signing," said Ola Morten Aanestad, Vice President of Communications, Statoil North America. "Enabling young talents to develop and reach their potential is the goal of Statoil's 'Heroes of Tomorrow' sponsorship strategy. We are impressed with Bryan Salazar's dedicated efforts and we are proud to have supported the Dynamo Academy that has helped him develop. We wish him and Dynamo good luck with the season."


text:
Many people, myself included, prefer streamlining fitness to obsessing over its minutiae. Although I'm no fan of their footwear [1], Nike's "Just Do It" really does capture my view of what exercise should be. Find what you like doing and what works for you, and simply go do it. But not everyone is that way. Tons of people truly enjoy the nitty gritty details. They like the research, the nutrient timing, the supplementation [2]. They're the ones discussing the respective differences between sumo deadlifts, regular deadlifts, and Romanian deadlifts. They're the ones who want to wring out every last drop of performance.
I get that. I used to be like that, too, but now I take more of an academic interest. That's not to say I don't pay attention to what I'm doing, because while I like to think I'm just going with the flow and doing what I enjoy, I also like knowing that what I'm doing is effective. Basically, I don't like wasting time. Plus, many readers fall into the latter category of those who want the details.
Today, I'm going to look at the effect (if there is one) of workout timing. Should you lift in the morning upon waking, or at night? Are the effects of morning exercise different than the effects of afternoon exercise? Does working out right before bed disrupt sleep or improve it? Let's explore these and other questions as we decide which is the best time of day to work out – if such a thing definitively exists at all.
I'll go down the line and examine the effect of diurnal variation [3] on various aspects of exercise. Let's dig in.
If you're interested in performance, some evidence seems to point toward the afternoon and early evening as the best time to exercise. In one recent study [4], ten and eleven year old boys performed better in the afternoon than in the morning. Grip strength improved 5.9%, squat jump performance increased 3.5%, the "5 jump" test improved 5%, and performance increased 5.5% (peak) and 6% (mean) during the Wingate test [5] (which measures peak anaerobic output) from morning to afternoon. They also tested the boys in mid afternoon (2:00 PM) and early evening (6:00 PM), but found no difference in performance. This study [6] found a similar result in morning and afternoon PE students using the Wingate test, but the authors suggest that longer warmups during morning sessions could mitigate the performance deficit. So, morning workouts require longer warmups [7]? I can buy that.
Sprinting [8]? Try afternoons for maximal power, but don't think you'll have any extra stamina. This study [9] found that maximal power was highest during the first three sprints (of ten total) in the afternoon when compared to morning sprints. Fatiguability was no greater, though.
Another cycling study [10] found that afternoon power output was greater than morning power output in trained cyclists. Fatigue was not affected by time of day, however.
Another study [11] compared the knee extensor strength (via the mighty half squat!) of two groups of trainees. The first group had spent 10 weeks training in the morning, while the second group had spent 10 weeks training in the evening. Both groups improved over baseline, but the evening trainees enjoyed greater strength gains.
I wouldn't assume that all exercise is better in the afternoon, however. The authors of this study [12] suggest that submaximal exercise [13] – like jogging [14], walking [15], hiking [16], or anything that relies on stamina and little else, really – is not negatively impacted by diurnal variation, which makes sense in light of the previous studies showing that while maximal power decreases in the morning, stamina does not.
Takeaway: Raw power [17] and performance in weight lifting, cycling, and sprinting is highest in the afternoon and evening. Stamina does not increase or decrease, however, and the changes in performance may be mitigated by more extensive warmups. If you're a high level athlete or really interested in how you perform, afternoons and evenings are best. If you're just trying to get and/or stay fit, strong, and healthy, morning workouts are just fine.
Hormonal Effects
How does timing change how a workout affects your hormonal profile?
One study [18] found that lifting heavy things in the evening, as opposed to the morning, resulted in a more anabolic (strength and size-building) testosterone [19]/cortisol [20] ratio. Baseline cortisol values were lower in the evening (which is normal) and higher in the morning (also normal; cortisol is necessary for morning wakefulness), which probably explains why evening training worked better. If you're starting with already elevated cortisol [20], some intense training is only going to spike it even more. If you're starting with moderate cortisol, intense training won't have as negative an effect and your testosterone levels will likely be sufficient to counteract the rising cortisol.
Not all research is so clear-cut, though. In a study [21] on muscular hypertrophy (growth), both morning and afternoon weight-training worked equally well at growing muscles and increasing maximal strength. There was a slight, but statistically insignificant advantage to training at night.
Takeaway: Don't hop directly under the bar in your pajamas with bleary eyes. Take the time to wake up and relax before working out. That might mean pushing your morning CrossFit [22] class to an afternoon session, or at least a late morning one. We know that cortisol is normally elevated in the mornings, and exercise increases cortisol, so be aware of how the two interact.
How does diurnal variation affect the general health benefits of exercise? Obviously, if you can perform better and reap bigger strength gains in the afternoon, you'll probably gain more lean mass and lose more fat, but what does the research show?
There are mixed results. Post-menopausal women [23] were split up into two groups in a recent walking study. One would walk in the morning, while the other would walk in the evening. At the end of the study, evening walkers had lower fat mass despite eating larger breakfasts. Both groups improved their aerobic fitness, but the evening walkers did better overall.
Recently, much has been made of the neuroprotective effects of exercise [24]. In other words, the pursuit of brawn appears to lead to brain, too. A recent study [25] found that the neuroprotective effects of aerobic exercise were modulated by its timing. Rats ran for 20 minutes on a rat wheel, either early in the morning or in the afternoon, after which their HAT/HDAC ratios were measured. HAT are histone acetyltransferases, and HDAC are histone deacetylases. The HAT/HDAC ratio indicates how much acetylation is occuring. Higher ratios indicate more histone acetylation and greater neuroprotection, while lower ratios indicate less neuroprotection. So, high is good, low is bad. Both exercise protocols increased the ratio, but the afternoon session increased it more than the early morning session.
But the time of day doesn't always matter. Check out this study [26], in which morning and afternoon treadmill sessions were tested for their respective effects on blood fluidity post exercise: blood fluidity improved across the board, regardless of when the exercise was performed. Another study [27] found that resistance training (3 sets of 7 reps at 80% of one rep max) improved platelet function, irrespective of time of day. Morning and afternoon sessions were equally beneficial.
Takeaway: Evening/afternoon sessions seem to be somewhat more protective and beneficial, but morning sessions are also helpful – just less so. And there are other parameters on which diurnal variation has no effect, so it's not a clear cut answer either way. Let's put it this way – both are good.
Everyone can agree that exercise in general improves the quality and incidence of sleep. Simply put, if you're on a regular exercise regimen, you'll probably sleep better, deeper, and easier. But what about working out right before bed? Will the cortisol spike and keep you awake? Will the increased heart rate keep you from settling down? Let's find out and look at some studies.
Here's one [28] that found a 5:00 pm 30-minute session of moderate exercise improved sleep in elderly patients who normally had trouble falling asleep. They fell asleep faster and enjoyed greater satisfaction with the quality of their sleep. Another [29], using underwater exercise in untrained subjects, found that late afternoon (4:30 pm) exercise had no effect on sleep. Even late night, "vigorous exercise" may not negatively impact your sleep, as a study [30] in trained cyclists showed. The subjects were able to get to sleep 30 minutes after three hours of cycling at 65-75% of their max heart rate without issue.
Takeaway: Unless you personally find that late night exercise negatively impacts your sleep, don't worry about exercising at night.
We're all individuals here, but there may be patterns of workout consistency that correlate with the timing of workouts. Do morning exercisers work out more consistently than afternoon or evening exercisers?
One study found that people who exercised in the mornings were more likely to exercise in general, while people who said they exercised at night or in the afternoon were less active overall. I wouldn't read too much into this, and I think a likely explanation is that people who are willing to wake up early to work out are more likely to stick with something – like a workout regimen. Early risers are generally more consistent, I think most people would agree, and this research bears that out.
Takeaway: Epidemiology is nothing to hang your hat on. Correlations may indicate something about populations, but if you, yourself, find you exercise better at a particular time of day, they are almost useless.
As for me [31], I like late morning workouts, but that's just because late morning works best for me and my schedule. I'm not trying to optimize my hormonal responses, boost my metabolism, or maximize my workout grip strength. I'm just working regular exercise into my daily routine, when and where it fits.
You can read the research and follow the links, but ultimately, the best time of day to exercise is the time of day that works for you. If you're dead tired after work, perhaps a morning session is the answer. If late night workouts keep you buzzed and awake, move them back an hour and go from there. Also, as the context of your life changes, you'll have to mix up your workout schedule on the fly. Get a bad night's sleep? Your cortisol is raging, and a late afternoon workout is probably better than an early morning one.
When do you workout? Does it work for you? Thanks for reading, and be sure to let us all know about your workout schedule!


text:
by Liz
Little Red Riding Hood and the Bad Wolf Costume
Rate this costume:
4 votes
|add a comment
More views: (click to enlarge)
Little Red Riding Hood and the Bad Wolf Costume
|Costume type:
|Costumes for Kids
This homemade costume for kids entered our 2015 Halloween Costume Contest.
A word from Korine, the 'Little Red Riding Hood and the Bad Wolf' costume creator:
My children, Harlee Rae is 3 years old and Savannah Faye is 18 months! The red riding hood costume was made and so was the cape. The wolf costume was purchased.
Similar costumes:


text:
Since May, Durango electricity consumers have been on a holiday from paying a franchise fee that averaged $4.52 a month.
La Plata Electric Association dropped the charge after city voters rejected its new franchise agreement by a 41-vote margin.
In November, the city again will ask voters to approve another franchise agreement for LPEA or else see the city lose an estimated $20 million in revenue over the 20-year-term of the agreement.
To sway voters, this updated version would be cheaper and encourage consumers to turn off their lights, averaging $3.64 a month because it would be based only on electric consumption.
If approved, the citys consumers would return to paying the fee starting Jan. 1, generating about $930,000 annually for the citys general fund to pay for a variety of expenses such as street maintenance and police.
Because LPEA passes the cost of the franchise fee on to consumers, opponents still see it as an unfair tax, especially for those struggling to get by in an expensive city.
What are we doing here? Am I missing something? said Tom Darnell, whose group, Restore Power to the People, spent $940 on a mass mailer this spring to help defeat the franchise agreement.
Darnell will speak out against the revised franchise at a ballot issues forum scheduled for 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. Monday in the council chambers at Durango City Hall 949 East Second Ave.
City Councilor Dick White will speak for the franchise at the forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters of La Plata County.
The franchise agreement gives LPEA a monopoly to provide power to Durango, but Darnell does not think its right that consumers should pay for the privileges of the monopoly, such as the right to work on city streets.
Noting the high cost of living in Durango, Darnell views the fee as another tax by the city on poor people to support amenities for those who could otherwise afford them.
The city decided to make a second attempt to pass an LPEA franchise agreement after a series of hearings in the spring, when little to no support was given for budget cuts to make up for the revenue loss.
I didnt hear anybody say cut police or lay off city employees, said Councilor Sweetie Marbury, noting that the city has had franchise agreements with power companies since the 1950s. Officials also said LPEA currently is the only utility not paying a franchise fee or occupation tax.
The city made up the shortfall from the loss of the LPEA franchise fee this year with the sale of land to Vectra Bank and by reducing some spending, including street repairs.
By not restoring the revenue, White worries the city will be forced to double-down on the budget cuts made during the recession, without the prospect of a recovering economy to replace the revenue.
Since the spring defeat, the city has worked to make the franchise agreement more palatable to voters.
The earlier version, for example, was criticized as a tax on a tax because it was applied on top of all gross revenues, including sales taxes.
In this revised version, the 4.67 percent fee would be applied only to the energy charge and not the LPEA base charge or its sales taxes.
This will make the fee even smaller than before, amounting to about 12 cents per day for the average residential customer, White said.
The city, however, expects to still generate the same amount of revenue as a result of population and business growth.
To answer another objection raised in the spring, the city changed the City Charter this summer to open referendums on franchises to all voters. Previously, they had been restricted to property owners who are registered to vote in Durango.
Darnell said he thinks the revised charter will aid his side by allowing renters to vote against the franchise. Voters will decide Nov. 6.


text:
TheBodySupply necesitaba un nuevo diseño de impreso o envases y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 66 diseños de 13 diseñadores freelance.
TheBodySupply, http://www.thebodysupply.com
The product is called Muscle Revolution™ -We're a neutraceutical company, called TheBodySupply. Our industry is VERY competitive and the look of the label is everything. Our product will be sold everywhere from Gyms to Major Supplement Chains. The product needs to have a bold image with good color and should look quite expensive. We've created an extremely effective and clean supplement and need the bottle design to match the product. The design should invoke an instant desire to purchase the product via a very strong first impression. Go to http://www.thebodysupply.com to see what we've got so far.
Our target market is men between the ages of 18 and 40 looking for the next big product to attain the perfect body. They are looking for that edge/advantage to get to the next level of fitness.
We are also targeting the higher-end, higher-income portion of this market as the product will be priced between $90 and $200.
Bodybuilders, Athletes, The Self-Image Concerned, Beach-body's, Beginners, etc. Our target market will purchase the product if it looks awesome enough. You can look at bodybuilding.com to see the kinds of products we're competing against.
Be creative!!! We are very open to different concepts!
We need two Images:
1) The Label -plain flat image we will send to the manufacturer
2) An image of the completed bottle with the label wrapped around it.
The Bottle/Label dimensions are as follows:
-Label Height: 3 inches
-Label Width: 6.28 inches (wrapped completely around, front visible portion when wrapped is approximately 2.75")
-Bottle Diameter: 2 inches
-Bottle Circumference: 6.28 inches
The Label portion on the back of the bottle should have supplement facts (leave ingredients blank we can add them later)
Product Label should say: Muscle Revolution™, and the product claims are the following:
-Increase Strength
-Enhance Performance
-Maximize Definition
(feel free to add your own verbiage should you think its better, but claims should be general enough to allow for formula changes in the future).
-"60 capsules" and "Dietary Supplement" should be somewhere on the bottom.
Also include our company logo (attached) in the design.
The product is called Muscle Revolution™ so it should look explosive, revolutionary, etc.
Here's your blank canvas: https://thebodysupply.com/wp-conten…xample.jpg
Avoid clear plastic labels (or printing direct to bottle) - we will be printing on high gloss paper.


text:
Sandra Diaz-Twine became the first ever two-time "Survivor" champion by winning $1 million on "Survivor Heroes vs. Villains" as she defeated Parvati Shallow and Russell Hantz, who lost his second season in a row. Russell was baffled yet again as to why he lost the game, even though the jury explained that he played a bad game by creating a jury of people who loathed him. At least he gets the $100,000 consolation prize based on viewer votes.
Parvati did even better than Russell: She placed second, and after 114 days of playing the game over three seasons, she has played it more than anyone else. As host Jeff Probst revealed during the live reunion, she's also tied for second for most individual challenge wins. Colby Donaldson still has the record, although he didn't do much to add to it this season. He was also the first voted out during the finale.
Although we saw a montage of Colby's awful challenge play, he outlasted all of the final five except Parvati in the first immunity challenge of the night — and then dropped the stack of plates he was balancing, giving Parvati her second individual immunity win in a row and third of the game. Back at camp, Colby pretended to give up ("I'm not going to hustle today, I'm not going to scramble," he told everyone), but that was a ruse so he could go to Russell and try to get him to vote off Sandra.
U.S. & World
News from around the country and around the globe
That didn't work because Russell was convinced Sandra was the best person to take with him to the final Tribal Council. "Sandra didn't play the game at all," he told us, and later told her the same thing. Sandra responded to his strategy by telling us Russell wanted to keep her around "because I won't get a single vote. But I don't know about that!" It turned out to be a very prescient statement.
After the final four paid their respects to the 16 all-stars they voted out of the game, they participated in the final immunity challenge: a blindfolded maze during which Sandra, Jerri, Parvati and Russell had to search for four separate necklaces and then find a pole with the individual immunity necklace hanging on it. A win meant that person would definitely face the jury and have a chance at $1 million.
It came down to a spectacular finish, if three people clawing at the air looking for a pole can be spectacular. Russell barely beat Jerri, who was just ahead of Parvati. That was a fateful moment because Jerri was voted out that night at Tribal Council, though she didn't expect it. "I was so sure I had this one," she said during her exit interview.
Russell blindsided Jerri — who had helped him send Danielle DiLorenzo home a few episodes ago — because he was convinced Jerri would vote for him. She became the ninth jury member (though she didn't vote for him as he thought she would).
After the final three had a big breakfast — at least compared to what they're used to — they had a few ritual burnings. Sandra took Russell's hat and threw it in the fire when he was out on a walk, explaining, "That's payback for everything he's done to me in this game."
Although that may not have been the nicest thing to do, it's quite fitting considering Russell burned his tribe mates' belongings on "Survivor: Samoa." However, he said he did it for strategy, while Sandra copped to doing it for revenge.
But Sandra didn't need to burn a hat to get revenge — she got it from the jury.
As Rupert Boneham explained, Russell was "a disgusting human being" because being "a manipulative, deceiving, lying person is very easy. You took the easy way out," Rupert told him. Rupert also gave Sandra credit for her repeated attempts to switch sides and help the Heroes — who now populated the jury — vote Russell out. "You opened the door and we kept slamming it in your face," he said. Sandra also got points for her loyalty, especially from her ally Courtney.
Meanwhile, Parvati pointed out that she was a target from day one and said, "Immediately I had to put up a line of defense," and part of that involved Russell. "I kept him as my pet," she said, using a metaphor that perhaps everyone except Russell would find funny. Coach gave Parvati credit for her physical game play, saying, "You were a warrior in challenges."
So why didn't Parvati win? Candice compared her to "a spouse in a bad, abusive relationship." And during the reunion, Parvati explained that basically, "Russell was so hated by everyone in the jury that everyone just lumped me in with him." She did get three votes, however, from Jerri, Danielle and Coach.
Despite losing, Russell said, "I wouldn't change anything and I don't regret it." But as Danielle explained during the final Tribal Council, "It's clear there's been a lack of skill in your jury management."
Earlier, Sandra told us that her husband is "out in Afghanistan fighting for our country, and here I am fighting to be the sole survivor." Although her fight wasn't as obvious as the others', she played largely the same game that she did on "Survivor: Pearl Islands," which involved laying low and making moves to keep herself around, like the time she convinced Russell that Coach was coming after him in order to protect herself and Courtney.
It worked, and her win "makes me the queen," Sandra said during the live reunion. "The best ever, yes. I have two titles. What else can you ask for?"
How about winning another season of "Survivor"? She'll probably have to wait until the next all-star edition, though. But when Probst revealed that the 21st season of "Survivor" will be filmed in Nicaragua this summer and air next fall, he did tease a surprise twist: Could someone be returning?
It's unlikely, but with "Survivor," you never know.
Andy Dehnart is a writer, TV critic and editor of reality blurred. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.


text:
There was a time where macroeconomics was ruled by adaptive (or backward-looking) expectations, like the much-ridiculed chartists. Then there was a revolution and rational (typically forward-looking) expectations were widely adopted, realizing that people are not stupid and will try to use the available information, including what other agents may do, to figure out what the future holds. Rationality, and in particular rational expectations, has recently come under attack because models failed to predict recent bubbles and crashes. I think this is mistaken, as detailed on several occasions on this blog.
Gregory Chow, however, longs for a return to adaptive expectations for three other reasons. The first is that it is empirically more plausible. Exhibit A is a regression of the stock prices of 50 blue chips in Taiwan on current dividends and past dividend growth. Despite a lowly R2 of 0.111, the fact that the coefficient on dividend growth is positive and significant is taken as evidence of adaptive expectations. I do not find this convincing, as a similar result could emerge with rational expectations if the dividend growth process is persistent.
The second reason is that "there is no reason to believe that the expected values [computed from an econometric model of the rational expectations] will have a sum, after discounting, which equals the actual current price." I think the underlying reasoning is that a statistician can only use a linear combination of past observations, thus economic agents will, too, and this all looks like adaptive expectations. But economic agents, and nowadays statisticians, are more sophisticated than that, and a gigantic literature in finance has shown that, for example, non-linearities and endogenous volatility, too name a few, are important. Even though statisticians have become much more sophisticated, they are still running behind economic agents and are far removed from being linearly backward-looking.
The third reason is that macroeconomists started using rational expectations simply because it was required to deal with the Lucas Critique, empirical evidence be damned. While I can be sympathetic to the argument that rational expectations was adopted without much direct empirical evidence, I also believe that economic agents do try and avoid systematic mistakes and that their expectations contain at least some rationality. And as much literature has shown, a modicum of rationality can bring markets darn close to prices that look like perfectly rational ones.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Adaptive versus rational expectations
Posted by Economic Logician at 7:20 AM
Labels: fundamentals
No comments:
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)


text:
RIVERSIDE — A 22-year-old man was critically hurt in Riverside County when he fell off the trunk of a car while attempting to fly a kite from the moving vehicle.
The Riverside Press Enterprise says (http://bit.ly/11JlC3f ) the man struck his head on the pavement in the fall Sunday night in Moreno Valley.
Sheriff"s officials say the white Nissan Maxima was moving slowly when the man fell off.
Paramedics treated him at the scene and he was taken to a hospital, where he was in critical condition.
Authorities say the driver of the car was not injured and alcohol was not involved.


text:
- This event has passed.
January 17, 2019 @ 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
|Recurring Event (See all)
An event every week that begins at 9:00 AM on Thursday and Saturday, repeating indefinitely
Dress for the weather. Wear sturdy shoes or boots, and bring work gloves. Apply sunscreen and insect repellent if necessary. Bring something to drink to keep hydrated.
No experience is necessary. You do not need to register or give us advance notice unless you are bringing a large group.


text:
Wedding Film Maker & Freelance Logo Artist
Member since: October 19, 2008
"Excellent designer. We several great designs, but this one stood out from "Day 1". Exactly what we needed."
"Flatsigns produced the exact logo we were looking for which oozed the luxury feel we wanted"
"Very good designer with a very good eye. Thanks for your work."
"Very professional, quick response to feedback, proactive creative ideas"
Pavel Cherkashin
"We couldn't be more pleased with design, great designer, easy to work with, quick response time."
"Wow....flatsigns are awesome. Great communication, made countless small changes until i was completely happy, and always had quick turnaround. I am so happy with me first experience of 99designs and that is largely because flatsigns are so professional...."
"I am exceptionally happy with the work, effort, and final product produced by Flatsigns. I had no idea what I wanted when I initially launched my project; however, Flatsign's innovative designs really helped give shape to my business. Outstanding work."


text:
I know I say that I'm always working on exciting projects with brands, Some I can talk about some I can't quite tell all yet. Despite the fact sometimes I ALWAYS just want to tell everyone everything! However, today I'm incredibly excited to announce something that I can actually talk about! I've been asked to partner with Galaxy and be part of their Essential Upgrades campaign. Galaxy Essential Upgrades is all about small things you can do to make an experience just that little bit more special.
Therefore in the upcoming months I'll be working alongside Galaxy Essential Upgrades, creating a variety of blog based content based on my ideas of "Essential Upgrades". I'll be focusing on things to do with upgrading your life, wardrobe and makeup bag and many more. I already have so many of my "upgrade" ideas to share, things like D.I.Y's, must have products to add to your makeup collection, tutorials, short guides on making the most of the clothes already have and loads more. As part of my first ever post, I've been asked to introduce myself to the Galaxy Facebook audience and those who might not already know me! Although, I'm hoping a lot of you guys reading this on my blog will already know me by now!
I'm Lily. I am 22 years old and live in London. I did a degree in Graphic and Media design and graduated last year, However I'm a blogger most of the time nowadays. I also run my own jewellery store called JWLRY and work alongside various brands and networks on a freelance basis for social media projects. I've been blogging for almost three years now on my original blog LLYMLRS. Which on reflection I probably would have called it something easier to say, but it's my name without vowels! LLYMLRS is a personal style blog where I post daily photos of outfits I wear. Everything I wear on my blog are things I wear in real life, none of it is set up purely for blogging! In late 2011, I launched a secondary follow up blog called ETCLLYMLRS which is a beauty and lifestyle blog. On that blog I tend post about things I do, products I try, events I attend, things I want to buy and anything else that comes to mind! I started blogging as part of a university project and now its grown beyond my wildest dreams. I'm so thankful for the opportunities and some of the things I've got to do in the past three years because of my blog! I've been to London Fashion Week, Presented videos for a major fashion designer, Worked with high-street and indie brands as well as meeting some of the most inspirational and creative people in my life through blogging!
I'm mainly inspired by the people and places in London, other bloggers and high street shops. I love the UK high-street and try and make everything I buy fit in to my own style. As for a few random facts about me I love pro-wrestling, history (especially the Mayans), making frivolous purchases and tweeting way too much! Follow me on @llymlrs! Be warned though, I do talk a lot!
So a big "HI" to potential new readers who've come over from the Galaxy Facebook page to check my blog out! And to everyone else who already knows me I hope your as interested in whats coming up over the next couple of months! I'm genuinely excited to be involved with this project! And NO I won't be blogging about chocolate or Galaxy constantly!
Personal Disclaimer: I am being compensated by Galaxy Essential Upgrades for creating content for them. None of the following posts I create are constructed or forced by them. All opinions and ideas are my own. I am not affiliated with any of the brands mentioned in any posts apart from Galaxy.


text:
This job posting is no longer active. Click here to see other jobs.
After-School Caregiver
Toledo, OH 43601
Posted 40 weeks ago
Discuss pay at interview
After-School Caregiver
Looking to make extra money during the upcoming semester? You're not the only one going back to school. Families everywhere are posting after-school jobs on Care.com. Now's the perfect time to apply!
Responsibilities may include, but are not limited to:
- Babysitting
- Transportation
- Tutoring
- Homework help
- Running errands
How to get started:
Click "Apply" to start building your profile on Care.com. Write a short bio of yourself, list your experience and qualifications, set your availability, then start searching for jobs near you.
A new job is posted on Care.com every 13 seconds. Sign up today!
Similar Jobs
More Jobs
Posted recently
Posted 3 weeks ago
Bowling Green
Posted 2 weeks ago
Posted 1 week ago


text:
Check out the latest RPG news | Podcasts | Twitch Streams
Those are seriously good, Dice! Nice job!
Nice work!
Ah! I saw that Sheena drawing on tumblr the other night when I zipping through the daily posts! That's some quality stuff there.
Oh wow these are so good!
Wow.Is there anything you can't do?
Wait didn't... you make this thread like a long time ago.Am I going insaner.
That's insane Dice. If I ever do make a proper game, I'm getting you on board to do some of that art.
I looked through your DA account - your illustrations are great : )


text:
McFarlane Toys and Disney Consumer Products have united to create a spectacular line of toys based on characters and scenes from the highly anticipated 2010 major motion action/adventure film ?Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time? presented by Walt Disney Pictures, producer Jerry Bruckheimer, and directed by master storyteller Mike Newell.
The film, based on the best-selling video game franchise of the same name, stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Sir Ben Kingsley and Gemma Arterton in an epic tale of adventure across the mysterious lands of Persia where deceit and betrayal threaten the destruction of two noble kingdoms.