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Insights on Infinite Sets and the Peano Axioms
It's possible I'm the only person that didn't already notice this; but it's just occurred to me that two mathematics concepts which are often taught independently are, actually, intimately related. These are the Peano Axioms (the basic properties observed by the natural numbers), and a common definition of an infinite set.
First, the Peano Axioms. Here they are, according to Krantz in Real Analysis and Foundations (2nd Ed.). I've changed notation a bit to fit into the blog better (less mathematical typesetting)
- 1 is a natural number.
- If x is a natural number, then there is a natural number called the successor of x.
- The number 1 is not the successor of any natural number.
- If the successors of two natural numbers are the same, then they are the same. (Put otherwise, no two distinct natural numbers have the same successor.)
- (I'm rephrasing this one to avoid the need to worry about what a "property" is.) If some set Q of natural numbers contains 1, and it also contains the successor of everything in it, then Q is the entire set of natural numbers.
These properties make sense, but I'll spend a second talking about what they mean in a little more detail.
Axiom #1: 1 is a natural number.
Remember what Juliet Capulet said: "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet." This doesn't refer to whatever concept you have in your head about the number 1: the name is, in fact, arbitrary. I can call anything 1 if I feel like it.
The first axiom isn't completely meaningless on its own, though. It does two things. (a) it excludes the possibility that there are no natural numbers, i.e. that the set of natural numbers is the empty set; and (b) is establishes terminology for later; this element 1 will come up again.
Axiom #2: Every natural number has a successor.
Again, you have no license to use your own notions about successors here. This axiom serves only the purpose of establishing notation for later; it doesn't exclude any possibility at all with regard to how the natural numbers look. After all, one can define a function from any set to itself. But now we've fixed such a function.
Axiom #3: 1 isn't the successor of anything.
Now things start to get interesting. We've fixed a specific function (the successor function), and a specific element of the set (namely, 1). We're now saying that 1 is not in the image of the successor function.
In other words, all that is required by axioms 1 and 3 together is that the successor function is not surjective. (If you prefer other terminology, the successor function is not onto.)
Axiom #4: No two naturals have the same successor.
So it's fairly clear by now where this is going, and indeed axiom #4 is quite clearly just stating that the successor function is injective. (Again, if you prefer different terminology, it's one-to-one.)
A brief recap before continuing…
So to recap, from axioms 1 through 4, we get that the natural numbers is some set, which has an injective but not surjective map to itself. Put otherwise, there is a bijection from the set to a proper subset of itself.
Wait a second! This isn't new at all. This is, in fact, a commonly used definition of an infinite set, known as being Dedekind-infinite. So Peano axioms 1 through 4 can be summarized as follows: "The natural numbers are a Dedekind-infinite set." This is something that no one had ever presented to me in that way before.
Axiom #5: The inductive property
Finally, axiom #5 comes in. This is the one that confuses a lot of undergraduate mathematics students, and often seems a bit arbitrary. It says that if you take a subset of the naturals, and it contains 1, and it also contains the successor of everything in it, that set must actually be all of the natural numbers.
This is often phrased as a proof technique for inductive proofs, rather than as a statement about sets. Here, though, we'll understand it to say this: not only are the natural numbers an infinite set, but in fact they are in a specific sense the smallest infinite set. That is, every Dedekind-infinite set (witnessed by some injective but not surjective function f) must have some element not in the image of f, and then must contain the image of f on everything in it. This last axiom simply says that the natural numbers don't contain anything else; so they are as few as they can be.
As with all intuitions about smallness or largeness of infinite sets, one must be careful here. Of course one could throw out plenty of elements (even infinitely many) and still end up with an infinite set. But the statement can be made into a precise one about cardinality: given any (Dedekind-)infinite set, one has an injective function from the set to itself whose image misses some element a. Then there is an obvious injection from the natural numbers to that set, obtained by mapping 1 to a, 2 to f(a), and so on. So certainly, the natural numbers have minimum cardinality among infinite sets.
So that's it. The Peano axioms can be summarized in a nutshell as follows: the natural numbers are the smallest infinite set. In the comments, please let me know if you've ever seen them taught this way.
3 CommentsLeave a Comment
zygoloid / Sep 29 2010 10:40 am
You need to be rather careful if you go down this route. It's very common these days for mathematicians to use first-order Peano arithmetic, rather than the full power of the second-order Peano axioms which you describe above. By upwards Lowenheim-Skolem, Peano arithmetic (being a first-order theory with an infinite model) has uncountable models and as such does /not/ require the natural numbers to be the smallest infinite set.
Dan Doel / Sep 29 2010 1:39 pm
I suppose this is somewhat similar to the way natural numbers objects are defined in category theory.
Some of the parts may be hard to tease out. But, being "least" or "smallest" (without over-quotienting) typically corresponds to some kind of initiality in category theory, and that's exactly how the natural numbers are defined.
Definitions of inductive types in type theory are typically couched in this language, too. The natural numbers are the 'least type closed under z and s.' Equality is the 'least reflexive relation' (data Eq A x y where refl : (x : A) -> Eq A x x). Et cetera. And they of course have semantics in initial algebras.
L Spice / Sep 30 2010 2:36 pm
I think that a danger of this point of view is that, if one abstracts out (1)–(4) as 'the set of natural numbers is infinite', then one loses any way to refer to the specific injection that witnesses this infinitude; and that it is then basically impossible to state the (crucial) principle of induction.


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About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: JeffMasters, 3:05 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Strong tornadoes plowed through the Midwest U.S. last night and this morning, killing at least nine people. Six people died in Harrisburg, Illinois when a tornado hit near 5:37 am CST this morning, damaging or destroying 200 buildings. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when a possible tornado ripped through a mobile home park. Thirteen others were injured in the mobile home park. Two others died in the Cassville and Puxico areas. A tornado also moved through downtown Branson, Missouri early this morning, causing heavy damage to the city's famous theaters, and injuring at least twelve people. A tornado plowed through the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm last night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured ten, one critically. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged fifteen preliminary tornado reports yesterday and today.
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Blizzard warnings are posted in South Dakota this morning, where snowfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches are common. According to NOAA's latest storm summary, five states have experienced snowfall amounts of ten inches or more--Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota, Michigan, and Nebraska. The highest snow amount as of 8 am CST was recorded at Tripoli, Wisconsin, where fourteen inches had fallen.
Figure 1. Radar image of the squall line that passed through Harrisburg, Illinois this morning, spawning a tornado that killed three people. The position of Harisburg is marked by a circle with a "+" symbol.
Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports yesterday.
More tornadoes likely today
The powerful late-winter storm system that spawned the deadly tornadoes will move eastwards, bringing snows of 5 - 10 inches to northern Wisconsin, northern Minnesota, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and northern New England. The storm's cold front is triggering severe thunderstorms over much of Kentucky this morning, and these thunderstorms are expected to grow in severity and spawn more tornadoes this afternoon, once the heat of the day destabilizes the atmosphere. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has posted tornado watches for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio this morning, and has placed much of Tennessee and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather today. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow today's severe weather.
Figure 3. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2012
La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.
Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.
The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
By: angelafritz , 6:14 PM GMT on February 23, 2012
We've launched a new extreme weather product this week: Record Extremes. Recent, globally record-setting years have demanded a product that combines U.S. and international record extremes into one, easy to use interface. The Record Extremes page will give you the option to see U.S. and international records on a map and table. You can select any combination of record types at once, which, combined with the map, provides a interesting visual way to investigate record-setting events. The product uses data from three sources: (1) NOAA's National Climate Data Center, (2) Wunderground's U.S. records, and (3) Wunderground's International records.
The NCDC records begin in 1850 and include official NOAA record extreme events for ASOS and COOP weather stations in all 50 U.S. states as well as Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Pacific Islands. In this database you can find records for maximum high temps, minimum high temps, maximum low temps, minimum high temps, snow, and precipitation on daily, monthly, and all-time scales.
The Wunderground extremes were compiled by our weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris monitors 300 stations across the U.S. for Record Extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow events. Most of these U.S. records go back to the end of the 19th century, though the oldest site in this database is Charleston, SC, where precipitation records started in 1737! Internationally, Chris monitors 150 countries worldwide for all-time record high temperatures and all-time record low temperatures. If you're interested in diving deeper into extreme weather in the U.S. and abroad, Chris's book Extreme Weather is an excellent resource.
Figure 1. All-time snow records broken during the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011. These records were found by selecting NCDC as the source, a start date of 2011-01-31, an end date of 2011-02-02, "maximum snowfall," and "all-time."
We built the Record Extremes product to make it easy to find specific records you're looking for, or just browse the records in general.
Check records that were set on a specific date
You can check on records that were set yesterday, for example, by setting the calendar to yesterday's date, and selecting all the record variables and types that you're interested in.
Explore all records set in a certain time range
2011 was a record-setting year for the U.S., and most of the records were high maximum temp and high minimum temps. To see all of these warm records that were set last year, select "NCDC" as the source, 2011-01-01 as the start date and 2011-12-31 as the end date. Select Maximum High Temp and Maximum Low Temp in weather variables, and select all-time in the record type.
View current standing international records in the Wunderground database
Select either the Wunderground International records, and instead of choosing a date range, select "Show current standing records." This will bring up all standing records in the database for whatever record variable and type you select. Whereas we've collected every record ever set or broken from NCDC, the Wunderground records are always the current, standing record, whenever it was set. As you move your map around the globe, you'll see each country's all-time maximum high temp and all-time maximum low temp.
Filter your table results
Looking for a specific location or record within your search results? Use the "Filter Results" option in the table to narrow down your search.
Let us know what you think!
By: JeffMasters, 5:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Since 2006 , federally declared weather-related disasters in the United States have affected counties housing 242 million people--or roughly four out of five Americans. That's the remarkable finding of Environment America, who last week released a detailed report on extreme weather events in the U.S. The report analyzed FEMA data to study the number of federally declared weather-related disasters. More than 15 million Americans live in counties that have averaged one or more weather-related disasters per year since the beginning of 2006. Ten U.S. counties--six in Oklahoma, two in Nebraska, and one each in Missouri and South Dakota--have each experienced ten or more declared weather-related disasters since 2006. South Carolina was the only state without a weather-related disaster since 2006. The report did a nice job explaining the linkages between extreme weather events and climate change, and concluded, "The increasing evidence linking global warming to certain types of extreme weather events--underscored by the degree to which those events are already both a common and an extremely disruptive fact of life in the United States--suggests that the nation should take the steps needed now to prevent the worst impacts of global warming and to prepare for the changes that are inevitably coming down the road."
Figure 1. County-level map of federally-declared weather-related disasters between 2006 - 2011. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, and heavy rains and snows from Nor'easters, hurricanes, and other storms in the Northeast gave those two regions the most disaster declarations. An interactive version of this map that allows one to click and see the individual disasters by county is on the Environment America website.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 3:15 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Documents illegally leaked from the Heartland Institute, one of the most active groups engaged in attacking the science of climate change, provide an unprecedented look into how these groups operate. The story was broken Tuesday by DeSmogBlog, a website dedicated to exposing false claims about climate change science. The documents reveal that donors to Heartland included oil billionaire Charles Koch, and Heartland has spent several million dollars over the past five years to undermine climate science. Tens of thousands of dollars are slated to go this year to well-known climate contrarians S.Fred Singer, Craig Idso, and Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That? website. Naturally, the leaked documents have lit up the blogosphere, but none of the revelations are particularly surprising. The U.S. has a very successful and well-funded climate change denial industry, primarily funded by fossil fuel companies, that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few decades on a PR campaign against climate change science. I made a lengthy post on the subject in 2009 called, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy. I won't say more here, but getenergysmartnow.com has compiled a long list of blogs that have interesting posts on the Heartland Institute affair for those interested in following this story.
Eight books challenging the Manufactured Doubt industry
Important scientific findings should always be challenged with the goal of finding flaws and improving our scientific understanding. But there's nothing a scientist hates more than to see good science attacked and the reputations of good scientists smeared in name of protecting corporate profits or ideology. A number of scientists have fought back against the recent unfounded assaults on climate change science by publishing books calling attention to the Manufactured Doubt industry's tactics and goals. Anyone priding themselves on being a open-minded skeptic of human-caused global warming should challenge their skepticism by reading one of these works. I thought so highly of Unscientific America, Merchants of Doubt, and Climate Coverup, that I donated 50 copies of these books to undergraduates at the University of Michigan last year. Here's a short synopsis of eight books published in the past three years defending climate change science against the attacks of the Manufactured Doubt industry:
Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. If you're going to read one book on the attacks on climate science, this should probably be the one--Dr. Oreskes, a history professor at UC San Diego, was voted climate change communicator of the year in 2011. A review of Merchants of Doubt and a video of her defending her book against skeptics is at climateprogress.org, my favorite website for staying current on the politics of climate change. From the review: "Make the journey with them, and you'll see renowned scientists abandon science, you'll see environmentalism equated with communism, and you'll discover the connection between the Cold War and climate denial. And for the most part, you'll be entertained along the way."
Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, by desmogblog.com co-founders James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. It's another fascinating and very readable book.
Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens our Future, by science writer Chris Mooney. He writes a blog focusing on science communication called the intersection. This is a fantastic book, and should be required reading for all college science majors.
Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand, by Haydn Washington and John Cook. John Cook writes for one of my favorite climate science blogs, skepticalscience.com, which focuses on debunking false skeptic claims about climate science. The book does a great job debunking all the classic climate change denial arguments.
Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health, by George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who now heads the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). This meticulously-researched book has just one chapter on climate change, and focuses more on tobacco and hazardous chemicals. About the the tobacco industry's Manufactured Doubt campaigns, Michaels wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy".
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, by climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann. Dr. Mann is the originator of the much-debated "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures over the past 1,000 years, which looks like a hockey stick due to the sharp increase in temperatures in recent decades. This book just came out last week, and I hope to write a review on it this spring. Dr. Mann is one of the main contributors to my favorite web site for staying current on climate change research, realclimate.org. John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "an eye-opening account of the lengths the opponents of climate science will go to in their campaign to slander climate scientists and distract the public from the realities of human caused global warming."
Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto. I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but it looks interesting. A review by Katherine O'Konski of Climate Science Watch called the book "a fascinating look at the status of science in American society."
The Inquisition of Climate Science, by Dr. James Lawrence Powell, a geochemist with a distinguished career as a college teacher, college president, museum director, and author of books on earth science for general audiences. I haven't read it, but John Cook of skepticalscience.com wrote a review, calling it "a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the full scope of the denial industry and their modern day persecution of climate science."
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be taking a few vacation days next week, and wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz will probably be doing most of the blogging for me during the coming week.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 3:18 PM GMT on February 16, 2012
January 2012 was the globe's 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. January 2012 global land temperatures were the 26th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 17th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 9th or 14th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Eurasia had its ninth largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. Cold and snowy conditions dominated across central and Eastern Europe, as well as much of China. North America had its third smallest January snow cover extent, since much of the United States and southern Canada were warmer and drier than average, limiting snow cover. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January in his January 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
By: JeffMasters, 4:41 PM GMT on February 15, 2012
Weather Underground's meteorologists have spent over five years developing and testing a powerful forecasting system called BestForecast, which has been used to provide all of our forecasts for non-U.S. locations for the past several years. After some final improvements made in the past year, the forecasts from BestForecast have become competitive with forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) over much of the U.S. As of today, BestForecast forecasts are the default on the site. What's cool about BestForecast is that we can make its forecasts specific for any site that collects weather data. We gather several years of weather data from a site and optimize the forecast to suit the unique microclimate of a particular station. Thus, "backyard meteorologists" that own and maintain one of the more than 22,000 personal weather stations that record and send live weather conditions to Weather Underground will now have a forecast specifically generated for their own backyard. BestForecast also gives the expected precipitation amounts (in inches), and provides ten days of forecast information, instead of the seven days provided by the National Weather Service.
Users can evaluate the reliability of these forecasts themselves and get a second opinion by switching back to the National Weather Service forecasts that were previously published. In some areas, the National Weather Service will out-perform BestForecast, so play around with using both, and see what works the best for your location. Web site visitors can switch between best forecast and NWS forecasts using the switch "BestForecast" ON|OFF at the top of the forecast page. To create transparency in our forecasts, wunderground.com will publish the recent accuracy of its temperature forecasts over the past 20 days for every location, alongside the accuracy of the NWS. The accuracy is given in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), in degrees Centigrade. A lower RMSE is better. The "MaxT" number is the verification of the daily high temperature forecasts, while the "Average" number is for the hour-by-hour forecasts.
A video demonstration of BestForecast is available on the wunderground.com About Our Data page.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 10:45 UTC Wednesday February 15, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Note the extensive plume of runoff and sediment stirred up by the storm flowing southwards along the east coast of Madagascar. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna kills ten in Madagascar
At least ten people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Giovanna in Madagascar, which hit the island nation as a powerful Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC Monday night. An estimated 600,000 people lived in areas that received hurricane-force winds, but the eyewall of the storm missed the capital of Antananarivo, which received peak winds of 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Many remote areas that were affected by the storm have not been heard from yet, so the full extent of Giovanna's damage is not yet known. Giovanna is currently in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and is slowly intensifying. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models conflict, with the ECMWF model predicting the storm will swing around and pass very close to the southern tip of Madagascar next week, and the GFS model predicting landfall in Mozambique this weekend. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar next week.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 1:07 PM GMT on February 14, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna powered ashore along the east coast of Madagascar as a destructive Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC last night. Winds at the coastal city of Tamatave, 70 miles north-northeast of where the center came ashore, peaked at 52 mph, gusting to 71 mph. Giovanna is moving west across the island at 17 mph, and passed just south of the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm at 8 am local time Tuesday morning. The eyewall missed Antananarivo , and the peak winds in the city were 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Microwave satellite imagery from the Navy Research Lab in Monterrey showed that Giovanna had rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour at landfall, and it is likely that the storm dumped 5 - 10 inches of rain along much of its path. The heaviest rains fell on deforested mountain slopes that drain into some of the most densely populated regions on the island, so major flood damage is likely. Heavy wind and storm surge damage undoubtedly occurred where the core of the storm hit the island, as well.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 7:15 UTC Tuesday February 14, 2012. Seven hours previous to this time, Giovanna was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds, but had probably weakened to a Category 1 storm by the time this picture was taken. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Madagascar has significantly weaken Giovanna, and the cyclone will move into the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm later today. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Giovanna may reintensify over water, and swing around and pass very close to the south tip of Madagascar early next week. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar this weekend.
Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 02:44 UTC Tuesday, February 14, 2012. The cyclone was still a well-organized Category 2 storm at this time, five hours after landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012
Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.
The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.
Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 2:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2012
It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Twelve of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:
Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F
However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).
Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January - February 2010, during the last El Niño event.
Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.
Figure 3. The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit: NASA.
Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought--called D4 or exceptional drought--about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.
2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)
I'll have a new post on Friday.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 2:57 PM GMT on February 07, 2012
Europe's winter onslaught continues unabated this week, with very cold temperatures and heavy snows over much of the continent. Yesterday, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. Across Europe, at least 250 deaths have been blamed on the winter weather since the cold spell began on January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, with 135 deaths--mostly of homeless people. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the current cold snap is the most severe for Europe since February 1991.
Figure 1. The scene in Tripoli, Libya, on February 6, 2012, after a rare snowstorm. Image credit: libyall.com.
Unusual jet stream kink causing Europe's harsh winter weather
The reason for the exceptionally cold and snowy winter weather in Europe lies in the behavior of the jet stream. The jet stream--the band of strong west-to-east blowing upper-level winds that circles the globe at mid-latitudes--acts as the dividing line between cold, polar air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south. On average, the jet blows straight west to east. But this winter, the jet has had a highly convoluted shape, with unusually large excursions to the north and south. When the jet bulges southwards, it allows cold air to spill in behind it, and that is what has happened to Europe over the past two weeks. The jet often gets "stuck" in one of these highly convoluted shapes, allowing a persistent period of extreme weather to occur. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show the unusual jet stream pattern over Europe persisting for at least another week.
Figure 2. The jet stream pattern over Europe shows that the jet is taking a major dive southwards across France and into North Africa, keeping almost all of Europe on the cold (north) side of the jet.
The AO and NAO
A good measure of the tendency of the jet to form major bulges in winter is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak, allowing it to sag southwards over Europe and allow cold air to plunge southwards behind it. Usually, a negative AO also means cold winter weather over North America, but not this winter. In North America, we're better off paying attention to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, which we can think of as the Northern Atlantic portion of the AO. Ordinarily, the AO and NAO are in phase during winter (about 80 - 90% of the time), meaning that Europe and North America experience similar winter weather. However, over the past two weeks, the NAO has been positive while the AO has been negative. The positive NAO means that jet stream winds have been strong over North America and the North Atlantic, keeping cold air bottled up to the north over Canada and the Arctic. This pattern is predicted to persist for at least another week. We've seen many record extremes of both the positive and negative phase of the AO since 2006; see that latest post by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org to learn more.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 1:51 PM GMT on February 06, 2012
Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.
What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?
A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."
Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.
Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.
Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.
The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.
Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 3:35 PM GMT on February 02, 2012
Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!
On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.
He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.
After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!
That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)
Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.
How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.
What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)
Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.
Jeff Masters
By: JeffMasters, 2:17 PM GMT on February 01, 2012
Wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades that the United States Department of Agriculture decided last week to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones. Compared to the 1990 version, zone boundaries in the new 2012 edition of the map have generally shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer than the previous map throughout much of the United States. This is mostly a result of using temperature data from a longer and more recent time period. The old 1990 map was based on temperature data from only a 13-year period of 1974-1986, while the new map uses data from the 30-year period 1976-2005.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation
Northwards, ho!
While humans are generally not attuned enough to nature's rhythms to tell if the climate is changing, plants and animals know the climate is changing. Many species of animals, insects, and plants have shifted their ranges poleward and to higher elevations in recent decades because of global warming. The 2007 IPCC report stated that "numerous studies document a progressively earlier spring by about 2.3 to 5.2 days per decade in the last 30 years in response to climate warming. That report also documented over 400 species that have moved their ranges poleward or to higher elevations because of climate change. For example, conifer trees expanded northwards into former tundra areas at a rate of 12 km per year between 1982 - 2000 in portions of Canada (Fillol and Royer, 2003.) Holly plants moved northwards by several hundred kilometers in recent decades into coastal Norway, Northeast Germany, Denmark, and coastal Sweden in response to warming temperatures (Walther et al., 2005.) As the climate continues to warm, plant and animal species previously unknown in many regions will appear, and will disappear from places they used to inhabit.
Figure 2. Change in the boundary line between conifer forest (taiga) and tundra between 1982 (grey line) and 2000 (white line) over Canada. In the grey box marked "Transect", the rate of northwards migration was 12 km per year, or 228 km (142 miles) in nineteen years. Image credit: Fillol and Royer, 2003, "Variability analysis of the transitory climate regime as defined by the NDVI/Ts relationship derived from NOAA-AVHRR over Canada", Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2003. IGARSS '03. Proceedings. 2003 IEEE International.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

subset: commoncrawl


text:
The final race of this year's America's Cup World Series will be contested in American waters this weekend, with teams from around the world coming to Rhode Island to determine an overall winner.
Oracle Team USA, based in San Francisco and the defending America's Cup champion, comes into the finale in first place in the series and hopes to wrap up the overall championship. Then it's back to San Francisco, where next season's America's Cup World Series will begin with racing Aug. 21-26 and Oct. 2-7 (Fleet Week), followed by regattas in Italy in April (Venice) and May (Naples).
It's all part of the overall run-up to the 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco. And if you've been waiting for a time to start following the sport, and its participants, this weekend on Narragansett Bay would be great.
Newport, R.I., is used to big-time sailing. For the final 53 years of the 132-year reign of the New York Yacht Club in the America's Cup, this was the host venue.
This time, though, the boats are different – 45-foot catamarans – and in the new era of "stadium sailing," the racing will be held inside Narragansett Bay for the first time. It will be the first time the high-tech cats have raced on the East Coast.
Going into the final ACWS regatta of the 2011-12 season, Jimmy Spithill's Oracle Team USA holds a four-point lead over Emirates Team New Zealand and its skipper, Dan Barker. Sweden's Artemis Racing, skippered by American Terry Hutchinson, is third.
"It's probably between us, New Zealand and Artemis," Spithill said. "Any of us can win it. We can't get into a defensive mode. There are Olympic champions all over the sport. We can't take anything for granted. It's going to be pretty exciting. There should be fantastic racing."
The previous stops in the series were in Portugal, England, San Diego, Naples and Venice.
"In Italy, the two venues had light winds," Spithill said. "We've had a full test. We had strong wins in Plymouth (England). In Newport, you can get anything. The water can be chopped up in the currents."
China Team has dropped out of the Series, leaving eight teams from six countries.
Four-time America's Cup champion Russell Coutts returns to helm the second boat for the San Francisco-based Oracle syndicate. He skippered it for the first two ACWS events last year before handing the job to double Olympic medalist Darren Bundock. Coutts rejoined the crew as a tactician at the last regatta in Venice. Bundock returns to his previous coaching role.
Spithill's crew will remain the same: John Kostecki as tactician, Kyle Langford as wingsail trimmer, Joe Newton as headsail trimmer and Brad Webb as bowman.
The America's Cup racing will be done on 72-foot catamarans, and Oracle Racing plans to launch its first boat in August and its second in February.
Sailing in Newport
What: America's Cup World Series, final leg
Where: Newport, R.I.
When: Thursday-Sunday
How series stands: Jimmy Spithill's Oracle Team Racing has a narrow lead over Emirates Team New Zealand in the point standings. The 2011-12 series champion will be crowned at the end of the regatta.
TV: 11 a.m. Thursday,Friday and Saturday (replays each night at 9) CSNCA; 11:30 a.m. Sunday Channel: 11 Channel: 3 Channel: 8
Online: Except for Sunday's final, the racing can be seen live on americascup.com.
America's Cup World Series standings
Team Match points Fleet points Total
Oracle Team USA (Spithill) 38 46 84
Emirates Team New Zealand 36 44 80
Artemis Racing (Sweden) 43 28 71
Energy Team (France) 32 33 65
Team Korea 30 26 56
Oracle Team USA (Bundock) 29 24 53
Luna Rossa Pinanha (Italy) 18 16 34
China Team* 15 16 31
Luna Rossa Swordfish (Italy) 11 10 21
* Will not compete in Newport
Tom FitzGerald is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com


text:
PNM proposes closures to Four Corners power plant
Plan would comply with EPA mandate
Half of the coal-fired units at PNM's largest power plant could be shut down to comply with federal regulations, and officials say that could mean higher rates for customers.
Right now, four coal-fired units at the San Juan Generating Station near Farmington provide 1,800 megawatts of power to 2 million PNM customers across the state.
In a proposed plan by the state environment department and PNM, closing two of four units would bring the plant into compliance with federal haze and visibility regulations meant to protect nearby national parks. It's a rule that's enforced by the Environmental Protection Agency.
The EPA is suggested installing pollution reduction technology on all four units to come into compliance. But PNM said that would cost nearly a billion dollars, and the expense would be passed on to the customer.
"It was very important to us that we work to try to find a way to lessen the cost impact on our customer," said Valerie Smith, a spokeswoman for PNM.
Smith said that although their plan would save everyone money, rate increases will still be necessary because of the project. She said those increases will likely happen down the road and there's no way to know how much they'll be right now.
If the plan is adopted, PNM said the closure would not result in layoffs. It's proposing building a new natural gas power plant in the area to make up for lost jobs, and it's spending $1 million to retrain some employees to work in other fields.
"We definitely want to be mindful of the economic impact," said Smith.
Smith said the natural gas plant will also help replace power lost from the closure.
The New Mexico Environment Department and PNM are presenting the proposal to the state Environmental Improvement Board Thursday.
After that, the EPA will have nearly a year to review proposal as well.
If it's approved, the two coal burning units will close by the end of 2017.
While officials say it will meet all the federal regulations, they say it's also a good move for New Mexico's future, lessening our reliance on coal and moving toward greener resources.


text:
Would you like to achieve the best possible balance between your family commitments and challenges in your career?
Would you like to work for a company, whose culture is characterised by partnership and trusting interaction - focussing primarily on people and their needs?
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- Hash (txid)a6e2ff584699233d7dfd72b57d104fef0f2dfed483a543369a8c554935822577
- Block Id 546241 92285 confirmations
- Time (UTC) 2018-09-03 09:10(2 years ago)
- Input total0.68884562 BCH
- Fee0.00000226 BCH
- Output total0.68884336 BCH
- Coindays destroyed0.00
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Aussies to win Oscars, earn big in 2019
Yipppeee. It's early 2019 and Hollywood is smack bang in the middle of awards season.
The smell of Botox is in the air and faces are pulled tighter than the Glad Wrap you put on last night's casserole leftovers.
Some campaigns for the February 24 Oscars are on steroids (we see you Rami "Bohemian Rhapsody" Malek even if Nicole Kidman doesn't).
Other once-promising campaigns have wilted, died and are starting to smell, with too many snubs at early awards shows (commiserations Hugh Jackman).
Lady Gaga, after missing out on an acting Golden Globe on the weekend, is a little whiffy but let's wait until the January 27 Screen Actors Guild Awards before we buy her a can of Glade.
There are a couple of Aussies who have strong chances of winning Oscars on February 24.
Production designer Fiona Crombie is a sure thing for an Oscar nomination for her work on The Favourite.
Aussie trio Andrew Goldsmith, Bradley Slabe and Lucy Hayes are also strong chances for their beautiful animated short film Lost & Found.
Thankfully, Hollywood is not superficial and there's more to the industry than winning Oscars.
There's money to be made.
In 2019 Aussie actors like Chris Hemsworth and Rebel Wilson will cash in.
There's also potential engagements (Ben Simmons and Kendall Jenner), weddings (Ben Simmons and Kendall Jenner), babies (Ben Simmons and Kendall Jenner, Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth) and break-ups (Ben Simmons and Kendall Jenner).
Below is a not-so-reliable guide to Aussiewood in 2019.
Oh Nic.
If she's not eating KFC in food courts she's pumping out top-shelf performances in films or TV mini-series.
That little independent Aussie production Aquaman is on its way to $US1 billion ($A1.4b) at the box office.
Nic's two films, Boy Erased and Destroyer, could bag her rare supporting and best actress Oscar nominations on January 22 when the Academy announces this year's nods.
Nic's 2019 films include Goldfinch (playing a wealthy New York socialite opposite Ansel Elgort) and Fair and Balanced (about Fox News chairman Roger Ailes with Kidman playing the channel's former host Gretchen Carlson).
She'll also be back as Celeste Wright in the second serving of Big Little Lies.
We can't mention Nic without her KFC drumstick nibbling Keef, right?
They are Australia's Bogie & Bacall - with better hair.
Urban has his own red carpets to stroll including the February 10 Grammy Awards with Keef up for the fifth Grammy of his career, Best Solo Country Performance, for Parallel Line.
It's a great song.
I've never heard it.
But, it's great.
Other Aussies with Grammy nominations include former Gold Coast pro surfer turned DJ Paul "Fish" Fisher and Christian band For King & Country.
Ironically, Perth pop star Troye Sivan did not get a Grammy nomination, but he is having a busy time during Hollywood awards season for his song Revelation in Boy Erased.
It earned him a Golden Globe nomination and has a great chance of receiving an Oscar nod after making the shortlist.
Byron Bay's finest superhero earned a reported $US64 million ($A89m) last year thanks largely to his recurring role as hammer-tossing god Thor in the never-ending Avengers films.
$US64 million isn't enough.
Chris has a new movie franchise in 2019, taking over from Will Smith in the Men In Black reboot.
Hemmy is still pumping out Thor and Avenger films, with Avengers: End Game releasing in April.
Little bro Liam does not appear to have too much on, although deserves a rest after his recent wedding to Miley Cyrus and watching his Malibu home burn down in the southern California bushfires.
Should we predict a baby for Liam and Miley?
This year looks like a huge one for Rebel with her romantic comedy Isn't it Romantic - she plays an Aussie in New York with Liam Hemsworth as one of her love interests - to be released on Valentine's Day.
She's also in the Dirty Rotten Scoundrels remake The Hustle with Anne Hathaway, and Kiwi director Taika Waititi's comedy-drama Jojo Rabbit with Scarlett Johansson and Sam Rockwell.
And ... there's also the movie version of Cats, with Rebel playing Jennyanydots opposite Taylor Swift, Ian McKellan and Idris Elba.
Australians know him as Trevor from The Year My Voice Broke.
Hollywood knows him as a baddie.
He was a badass in Rogue One, Bloodline and Steven Spielberg's Ready Player One and he steals the show as shape-shifting super-villain alien Talos in the upcoming mega blockbuster Captain Marvel.
The Animal Kingdom gang is also getting back together in the historic drama The King, directed by David Michod, with Mendelsohn as Henry IV opposite Joel Edgerton as Falstaff.
Dim the lights.
Roll the sad music and let's pay our respects to this Hollywood awards season's Oscar hopefuls whose campaigns crashed and burned, their films soon to be in the discount DVD bin at K-Mart.
Hugh Jackman (The Frontrunner), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Charlize Theron (Tully).
Australian Associated Press


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How do I register to make my picks?
Start making your picks and you will be prompted with a form that lets you register.
What if I forgot my password?
Click the "Login/Register" link at the top of the page. At the bottom of the window that pops up you should see a link to reset your password. Click that and follow the instructions onscreen to get a new password.
How do I submit my votes?
Your votes are automatically submitted as soon as you hit the vote button.
How do I change my vote?
Just click the Vote button next to whatever you want to vote for and we'll change your vote for you.


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Your Health is undoubtedly Your Most Valuable Asset – so do you protect your health with natural cures & home remedies?
Health is probably something we all take for granted & only realise how important our health is when we are ill or someone close to us is suffering from ill health.
However if we all do nothing in regard to our health now, waiting until we begin to suffer from ill health & then trying to do something about it may be too late as we may have already done irreparable damage to our health.
Just Ask Yourself The Following Questions….
* Do you get regular health check ups?.
* Do you exercise & eat all the right foods that are beneficial to your health?.
* Do you smoke, drink or take drugs?.
* Are you aware of how these habits affect your health?.
Health can be effected by a multitude of different things, an operation is a major trauma for the body and takes lots of rehabilitation to recover. If you have been a victim of clinical negligence from the health service, be it during or after surgery, contact your local Solicitors.
Every month we will add a new complete online health book on a specific health or Natural cures topic, chapter and verse! Just click on the Health Book links below and you will see the list of links to each chapter in each complete health book.
Our Directories of Health Articles in our specific subject categories are also updated every week as we are loading hundreds of new informative natural cures health articles, home remedies & herbal recipes for natural beauty and herbal – aromatherapy guide.
1. Natural cures for Overcoming Depression!
Everyone goes through rough times where we feel sad or down in the dumps. Actually, it's pretty normal to feel that way on occasion. However, when depression seems to be going nonstop and the patient just can't snap out of it no matter how hard he or she tries, then that probably signifies depression.
2. How To Reduce Stress At Work & At Home
Did you know that 90% of doctor visits are for stress related symptoms? Stress bombards us every day from all directions. Maybe it's sitting in the midst of highway gridlock when you are already late for an important appointment.
3. How To Get A Good Nights' Sleep – natural sleep aid tips
It is commonplace for several people to suffer at least an occasional night of almost non-existent sleep. The causes of insomnia differ from person to person. What made a student insomniac varies from what caused a shift worker or a traveler or an employee to acquire such sleeping disorder.
4. Lowering Your Cholesterol natural cures & home remedies
In 2002 it was estimated that 107 million American adults now have a blood cholesterol level high enough to require medical advice.
Unfortunately, the numbers keep rising. Despite this epidemic problem, there is good news. You can do something about the problem and that's what this guide is all about
5. Overcoming Addictions
In this guide, the Addictive Disorders discussed refer to health matters dealing with both physical and psychological intense desires or cravings for substances or behaviors that grow into dependency.
For example, not only will alcohol and drug dependency be addressed, but addictions dealing with issues like emotional, "things" or "people" attachments.
6. Getting Rid Of Bad Breath
Millions of people suffer embarrassment due to bad breath. The technical name for bad breath is "halitosis." Take a walk down the personal care aisle of any drug or grocery Store and you will find product after product all dealing with this condition.
Before we can discuss how to get rid of bad breath, we need to have an understanding of the causes and symptoms.
7. The Men's Guide To Prostate Health
There was a time in history when there was no awareness of the prostate, let alone diagnosis and treatment. Countless numbers of men throughout the ages have suffered and died as a result of this ignorance.
Through the miracles of modern medicine, today prostate disease is well defined and is no longer necessarily considered a death sentence.
8. Ways To Reduce And Burn Calories
If you struggle with weight gain it's a good bet that you have tried at least one of the "fad" diets that crop up on a regular basis.
The truth is that some of these diets may grant you temporary weight loss. In the usual case, however, the weight returns as soon as you stray from the diet. though, reports have shown that you can eat less because it makes you feel full.
9. How to Ease Your Allergies!
There is no clear apparent medical reason why people contract allergies, but one thing remains clear: the condition is indiscriminate in its coverage and may affect us regardless of age, gender, or race.
Commonly, however, the allergy manifests in our infancy or childhood, although some symptoms may appear at any age or may reappear after any period of apparent inactivity.
10. How To Have A Healthy, White Smile – Dental Care
Nothing lets the world know more about us than the way we project ourselves on our surroundings and to other people. Whatever the condition of your smile today, it can be changed including by using the best teeth whitening product to help give you a new found confidence in your life. We are about to show you how.
11. Wrinkle Reduction and Skin Rejuvenation:
With new research, new products and new skin protection advice popping up all the time, it is hard to figure out the best things to do to improve and protect your skin. A skin care program is the combination of skin care products and a routine that will be most beneficial to the skin. You will first need to consider your diet and type of life-style since these two factors play an important role in the health of a person's skin.
12. Natural Beauty Secrets & Herbal Remedies
Ever since Eve took that first bite of the apple, the human race has been obsessed with natural beauty. Granted, each civilization has had it's own definition of what attributes are used to define beauty. Ancient Egyptian women AND men used various natural pigments to color their bodies in an attempt to appear more favorably to the "gods."
13. Food Nutrition Facts & F.A.Q.
Right now in the US 60% of the population has a weight problem. "Morbidly Obese" is clinically defined as being 100 pounds or more overweight. In our population, the number of people being morbidly obese is increasing year after year.
People with just such a weight problem are continuing to increase every year. In our culture today there is an over abundance of food available. You know, on every corner there is fast food and billboards and everywhere you turn there is an advertisement for fast food.
14. Breast Health & Breast Feeding Natural cures Guide
"Breast Self Examination" Breasts come in all shapes and sizes and do not stay the same throughout your life. Your monthly period, pregnancy, breast feeding, age and weight changes may alter the shape, size and feel of your breasts and at some point you might even want to consider breast augmentation as a means to help improve your overall appearance & confidence, we cover all these subjects in this area.
15. Fitness & Exercise Guide
Many us need to follow an exercise program, in order to remain healthy. Here you'll find several good reasons why you should start exercising now.
16. Becoming Vegetarian – You are what you eat
You've certainly heard the expression many times, "You are what you eat." Have you ever really thought about what it means? And do you think about it when you're making food choices?
17. What is the Raw Food Diet?
Have you started hearing about the Natural cures Raw Food Diet? It's gaining popularity and buzz, not just as a diet to lose weight, but a Natural cures diet for a long and healthy life.
We eat so much in the way of processed food that we don't even stop to think about what we're putting into our bodies, and how far we've come nutritionally from our ancestral, agrarian roots.
18. All About Vitamins & Supplements
Everyone knows that the human body needs a certain amount of vitamins and minerals everyday to function properly and remain healthy. A well balanced Natural cures diet can supply your body with the vitamins it needs, although problems and disorders can arise if your diet doesn't supply your body with the vitamins it needs. Have you seen my post on the real vitamin, and what vitamins are good for?.
19. Becoming A Healthy Eater
Being a healthy eater requires you to become both educated and smart about what healthy eating actually is. Being food smart isn't about learning to calculate grams or fat, or is it about studying labels and counting calories.
20. Alternative Health Therapy articles – in Audio
Rest Your Eyes – Kick Back And Enjoy!
Are you tired of reading all day and wearing out your eyes till they are sore? Well you have found the right place to relax. These Natural cures Alternative Health articles are in audio form. The pages open in a new window, so that you can listen to them while reading other pages on the site.
21. Guided Meditation Videos
Free Guided Meditation Videos for total beginners….
Collection of Natural cures meditation video clips with Tonal relaxation & healing qualities and visuals. Just watch and you will feel amazing afterward.
22. SUPERFOODS for better health
Recent dietary research has uncovered 14 different nutrient-dense foods that time and again promote good overall health. Coined "superfoods," they tend to have fewer calories, higher levels of vitamins and minerals, and many disease-fighting antioxidants. Recently, acai berry has become one of the popular superfoods and can be found in MonaVie and other similar juice products.
23. Help Prevent Common Aging Diseases with these Anti Aging Secrets
These simple anti aging remedies and strategies can help you fight early aging diseases. Whether you are caring for an elderly parent, or are yourself experiencing the challenges encountered with seniors health, this directory of self help aging articles will provide you with some top anti-aging secrets and health tips including aging, nutrition & even where to get the best cataract surgery, it is all covered in this extensive section of our website.
24. Natural Hair Loss Remedy and Hair Care Tips
There is no sure-fire way to prevent all hair loss; however, there are some methods that have been used that work on some people.
Even though there are several genetic causes of hair loss, and these causes really have no cure, there are several things that might happen to you where you lose your hair, but you can do something about it. If you have lost your hair or some of your hair due to some of these reasons, you should know that there are several things you can do at home to make sure that you are going to regrow the healthiest hair.
Each new online Natural Cures health book we add is featured in our free monthly Natural cures health newsletter, so a simple way to be updated with our new books as they get loaded online for you is to just Subscribe to our Newsletter and we will deliver the book links to your email letter box!
Natural Cures and Home Remedies Can Help You to Live Longer
You should balance your activities with the proper amount of rest. Some of the leading experts in the field of aging now believe that regular exercise along with the proper amount of rest may actually add years to the life span. Results from a number of tests indicate that speed and muscular strength of many of the elderly can be extended.
Leading authorities agree that this new data is going to shatter many of the myths about aging and physical performance. The conclusion now is that the performance and ability of the elderly has long been underestimated, diet, proper sleep and exercise along with rest and relaxation are all important factors in preserving our bodies.
Laughter is one of the best Natural Cures for your mental and physical state. People are naturally attracted to someone who has a good sense of humor. You can develop a good outlook and a good sense of humor by associating with and surrounding yourself with pleasant happy people.
Recognize that stress is a killer. A life filled with stress can really wreak havoc on your body causing a number of illnesses such as heart attacks, strokes, asthma, gastric problems, menstrual disorders, ulcerative colitis, angina, irritable colon, increased blood pressure, ulcers, headaches, etc.
There are different types of stress such as mental, emotional and physical. Emotional stress seems to take the greatest toll on everyone. All stress is not bad; in fact, life would not be very interesting if it were not met with challenges.
However, too much stress, too often with no effective and appropriate outlet, does not allow the body and soul to recuperate. You might review a typical week to see if you can identify things that might be making you anxious or causing you stress. Once identified, stressors can be attacked and eliminated.
Are you a worrier? Chronic worriers don't have more serious problems than others – they just think they do. Many worriers try to cope by trying not to think about their problems, but this just makes things worse. Doctors say that chronic worriers feel less anxious if they actually spend a half-hour a day thinking specifically about their problems.
A great Natural Cures example is to get plenty of exercise. People who are physically fit look good and feel good. A good exercise regimen will lengthen your life. Improve your appearance, build self confidence and help delay the aging process with Natural cures.
Remember that you need to do something physical every day as part of your Natural Cures self care strategy. If you don't use your joints, quite simply they'll tighten up with age to create the stooped, bent and worn out appearance we so often associate with old age. Studies have shown that people with arthritis experience less pain if they continue to keep their joints flexible. As one gets older, the bones tend to get brittle which is why it is common for senior citizens to break bones and especially their hips when they fall.
Eating right, getting proper sleep and learning to relax are all very valuable Natural Cures in maintaining a healthy body and mind. And keep in mind that eating healthy foods and avoiding those high in fats, sodium and cholesterol will help to decrease your risk of heart disease, high blood pressure and associated problems.
Help to Grow Old Gracefully and Fight the Common Aging Diseases
Today the average duration of human life in the United States is just about 70 years for women and a little less for men, most people can extend their life span and avoid the need for independent living assistance if they just followed some of our recommend tips.
Taking out a life insurance policy is also really important if you want to ensure the financial security of your family after you are gone. Contact the experts online for more information on what kind of policies are available, and to find the one that suits you.
Conservative experts believe that man is really build to last about 100 years; and that medial advances and more healthful living habits could bring this about within a generation or two.
What good is it to add years to life if we do not also add life to years? In fact, unless people learn to enjoy life and to grow old gracefully, the extra years may be an additional burden.
From 18 to 30 years is roughly the period of highest physical and mental vigor. The experiences we accumulate from the day we are born help us to conserve and to use our physical and mental abilities more wisely, so that for some time after 30 years we are able to perform increasingly well in spite of slowly slipping vigor. After age 50 the increasing accumulation of experience is no longer able to offset the now more rapidly energy and therefore aging begins to assert itself noticeably and in many ways.
A number of things may come about gradually such as people who have not used eyeglasses before may at some time in their forties need them for reading, and in the fifties they usually need bifocals.
Also in the forties, people are likely to put on weight because there is a general slowdown in the oxidation rate of the aging body tissue. Also we tend to do less strenuous work with no reduction in the amount of food consumed.
And in the fifties there is likely to be some loss of hearing. Usually the high-pitched tomes go first, so words with the sounds of F, S, and TH are confused. A hearing aid may be needed in some cases.
Aging is generally accompanied by a loss in physical and mental flexibility. This is noticed in a tendency to become stiff in the joints; in slower comeback after a strenuous trip, excessive "night life," or hard work; in slower healing of wounds, sore muscles, and sprains; in slower recovery of pep after an illness; and in greater difficulty to adjust to new people, new places, and new ideas.
Men, especially, will notice loss of muscular strength. There will be increased unsteadiness and delicate muscle movements will be more clumsy and the stride in waking will become shorter. The conclusion now is that the performance and ability of the elderly has long been underestimated and can be greatly improved by a proper diet, sleep and exercise along with rest and relaxation.
Many elderly people tend to lose their joy and will to live and chronic worriers may mope around and withdraw. Medical authorities now say that laughter is one of the best Natural cures for the elderly. You can always keep your sense of humor tuned up by surrounding yourself with pleasant and interesting people. Just act your age and don't be afraid to laugh at yourself even when no else is around.
Now that we all know the role that physical activity plays for Natural Cures in our lives, remember to do something physical every day. The joints must be used or quite simply they will tighten with age creating that stooped worn out appearance we so often associate with getting old. Keep yourself flexible and fit on an exercise program consistent with your ability….continue reading more new anti aging articles here to Help Prevent Common Aging Diseases with Anti Aging Secrets!


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P-Romo necesitaba un nuevo diseño de logotipo y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 79 diseños de 19 diseñadores freelance.
TOT, Test Of Time Band
We're a 6 piece Top 40/R&B band in the SF Bay Area. We've come together from different groups to launch this special project. This band loves to play and wants to be "first call" for coporate events, high end clubs and exclusive weddings. We are diverse. Our female vocalists are young and sing Aretha to Alicia Keys. The guitars, keyboard and drums are veterans on this music scene. All about excitement, high energy, and star-quality.
Corporate Event Planners, Wedding Planners, Casino talent booking agents, Hotel Entertainment Managers, City Event Planners and the people who search us out to be "in" on our next performance.
We'd like a creative logo to represent our band. Nothing stock, we want you to open up and flow. Bold colors are encouraged. This will be on the face of our website, banner, promo package, bass drum and possibly t-shirts.
Our team would like the initials TOT to be the focus. "Test Of Time Band" can be subtext but not at all required. No cartoons or clip art. Abstract, crest or shape are OK. It will fly from corporate banquet to elegant hotel lounge to casino dance club. Your imagination is what we love. We're artists like you.
I attached band logos that identify from appearance, we like that.
The files we will require are:
a high quality print file format and web file format - .jpg and layered .psd (RGB)
Descubre cómo funciona un concurso de diseño u obtén más información sobre nuestros servicios de diseño de logo.