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The AirBreaker from ABUS is a helmet that effortlessly meets the highest demands of professional cycling.
Don't accept compromises. In cycling, the best rider with the best equipment wins. Winners bet on the AirBreaker.
In the race, top performance counts on every single stage, whether on a steep uphill climb or in the nerve-racking top speed of the sprint. The AirBreaker from ABUS supports you every kilometre of the way.
Thanks to the honeycomb structure of the innovative Multi Speed design, the AirBreaker always offers the best possible aerodynamics and at the same time ensures optimum ventilation. Because the Multi-Speed Design doses the ventilation as it is needed: maximum ventilation for slow, hilly stages, and optimum aerodynamics for fast, flat stages.
Aerodynamic storage port for glasses.
Aerodynamic, flutter-free and skin-friendly, thanks to specially developed webbing.
Clever ventilation system for optimal head temperature.
Honeycomp design on the topgrid of the helmet provides perfect cooling with optimal aerodynamics.
Floating padding to improve comfort.
A specially shaped slot within the adjustment system gives plenty of space to long hair
|design color:
|blaze red
|230 g
|Head size:
|59-61 cm


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The art of "PORTMANTEAU".
For those of you uncertain as to the proper pronunciation, it's "Port-Man-Toe" in the written Ebonics. Carrying on, the dictionary will simply describe Portmanteau as a word or morpheme whose form and meaning are derived from a blending of two or more distinct forms. (I say that with complete certainty because the bulk of that last sentence was a direct cut and paste from a dictionary website.) The most common example of this one could argue is the word "Smog" as it originates from "Smoke" and "Fog". So many of these words have found their way into our everyday dialog, including more recent additions such as; "Bootylicious" or "Guesstimate". Even when first presented with one of these words its meaning is so very often intuitive. Rarely is a definition required to help a new user successfully adapt it into their vocabulary.
As many of the other Gents will attest to, I have on occasion found myself "Unscrupivised" with cbdoilkaufen.com. As to say, I was both without adequate scruples and adequate supervision to make an appropriate decision. (I must of course state that many of those occasions came while pursuing my studies in Mixology with Gentleman Lee Dunteman. Who as it turns out, was also unscrupivised.) I would further put forth that when you first read the word unscrupivised, you had a "Quimsical" look upon your face. Would you not agree that the expression would have conveyed both your questing of the word and how whimsical it sounded to you? As I do realize that I stated that defining such words was unnecessary, I did so simply to help you feel certain in your application and confident in your future use of these and other Portmanteaus that you may encounter as you progress through life.
In general, remember that there is an art to language and regardless of practicality, art is always necessary. Revel in the ability to share concepts and ideas. While not everything will be Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, thankfully, it can be more than a little amusing to give voice to your thoughts. You don't have to be a Shakespearian Actor or a Used Car Salesman to benefit from a rich vocabulary and keen awareness for body language. Embrace the need to express and open yourself to those around you. (As much too how something is said as to what was said.) You can only grow and better yourself for it.

subset: commoncrawl


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Authentic Smith Island Cakes
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Considering Marion Station, Maryland, just up the road from Crisfield, is known as "the strawberry capital of the world", it's only fitting SIBC feature a cake worthy of such a legacy! Featuring our moist, made from scratch yellow cake, a decadent strawberry filling, and our fabulous buttercream frosting, this cake is the perfect compliment to any gathering. The cake is approx. 9" in diameter, 3.5" tall, and yields 14-16 slices. Like all SIBC products, it is shipped frozen with dry ice in a recyclable cake box.
Have a question? View our FAQs or call us at (410) 425-CAKE (2253)
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UK set-top box maker TVonics has announced its first Freeview HD DVR.
The twin-tuner, 500GB capacity DTR-HD500 not only sports HDMI output, but it also packs in a pair of HDMI inputs, allowing users to feed the DVR and two other players to their telly through a single cable.
That's handy if you want as little spaghetti as possible dangling down from the back or sides of your flat panel, or your telly only has one or two HDMI ports.
The TVonics box also has a pair of USB ports - one for software updates, the other for external content-storage devices.
The software update facility will be useful to update boxes with Dolby Surround Sound support which, while not present on the DTR-HD500s shipping now, will be made available for free later next month.
The DTR-HD500 costs £280 from high street retailers and direct from TVonics - which will throw in a two-year warranty. ®
Sponsored: Webcast: Discover and secure all of your attack surface


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BWM_CD necesitaba un nuevo diseño de logotipo y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 85 diseños de 26 diseñadores freelance.
New Media Entrepreneurship Conference or New ME Conference
The New Media Entrepreneurship Conference (or New ME Conference) is a new conference that will take place in 2010. It is focused on bringing together entrepreneurs in new media/internet as well as key individuals from government and the venture capital communities.
The New Media Entrepreneurship conference was born with the goal of developing an action plan to get ALL minorities involved in Internet entrepreneurship. While there are other conferences that focus on tools and execution, we are set apart by our goal of exposing the opportunity and ensuring the success of minority Internet entrepreneurs. No other conference does this. Concretely the conferences mission and goals are to:
• Facilitate open discussion about how to increase the likelihood of success of minority start-ups in new media;
• Formulate an action plan to increase the number of minority new media start-ups and increase the number of successful start-ups that survive; and to
• Develop a policy framework for advancing and stimulating the growth of minority new media start-ups.
We are excited to launch the ONLY conference that will bring together influentials and thought leaders from the venture capital community, government & policy, and talented entrepreneurs all for the purpose of minority development in New Media.
The New ME Conference will be a think tank of the best and brightest.
We are targeting progressive, highly creative thought leaders in new media/internet, entrepreneurship, policy, and venture capital. These are people who aren't scared to take risk, they think outside the box.
Logo should be colorful and use this color palette:
Logo should also be on a white background.
Logo should be organic in shape, no hard edges, and free flowing.
Text color can appear in contrasting color or gray
Stay away from:
Shapes of people or people in a circle
I would like 2 versions of the logo, one for the full name:
New Media Entrepreneurship Conference
and one for the shortened version of the name:
New ME Conference
Descubre cómo funciona un concurso de diseño u obtén más información sobre nuestros servicios de diseño de logo.


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Thanks again to Amy Coffin of We Tree (http://wetree.blogspot.com/) for the inspiration for this set of challenges. (http://wetree.blogspot.com/2010/01/52-weeks-to-better-genealogy.html)
This week we were challenged to spend some time at Find-a-Grave and report on the experience.
While I have used the site, admittedly sparingly, in the past, this was the first time I really looked at it. Here was my experience:
I first saw a link: Search by Location, I clicked on USA - Iowa, and got 365 results.
To my surprise, I saw a list of individuals, not cemeteries, as I expected. Then, I realized I had clicked the "location" link under "Find a Famous Grave" not under "Find Grave" - First lesson learned! ;-)
Under Find Grave, I used Search for a cemetery, then entered Coon Rapids, USA, Iowa, Carroll County - my hometown cemetery.
Coon Rapids Cemetery came up, with 392 interments listed along with 8 Photo Requests. There was also a very nice, active map of the location, which I knew to be true.
I entered 5 surnames in the search, to see what I would find:
SMITH - 31 names listed, none of them 'my family' - the first Oops; no excuse, I should have seen that 'mine' were entered before this.
KINNICK - 0 - surprise, again... shame on me, as well as others, for no entries.
SORENSEN - 0 - ditto!!
BOLGER - 0 - my wife's name; she and her family have not entered them either.
WILSON - 5 - Happy to see these, by a cousin of my wife, Shawn Brown
I followed up by looking at Shawn's activity - he had entered 42 memorials - good for him, along with 3 photos.
Well, I committed to do this Challenge because I thought it was important to do - even though I am "on vacation" this week. Now I understand why.
I registered as a Contributor and completed the Contributor Page.
One of my new projects will to be to begin converting my many blog entries under Tombstone Tuesday to memorials on Find-a-Grave. Thanks, again, to Amy at We Tree and to Thomas at GeneaBloggers for the reminder!
Families are Forever! ;-)


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https://i.pinimg.com/736x/20/58/21/205821ccc7f2bde375f64b5f2359f049.jpg The jewelry you wear represents your yearning, your texture, Let your favorite things climb your hands and become an invisible force. Slow and professional, carefully designed with a touch of chic, Pick out the jewelry that represents you, and use your unique cipher to render your confidence! - [number name] ● C1142 ● Material: citrine. White chalcedony. Topaz. White crystal. Iron gallstone. Brass. - Citrine: The main favors, often bring unexpected wealth, corresponding to the sun wheel, help the stomach, help memory, logic, organization, memorization, enhance personal confidence. White chalcedony: White is the amulet's effect, calming nerves, eliminating anxiety and anger, removing unnecessary memory and burden, negative emotions in the brain, and preventing others from invading the body. Topaz: Corresponding to the human sun wheel, it can attract wealth, regulate the body's digestive system, eliminate negative emotions, and make people feel happy. White crystal: avoid evil and phlegm, purify negative energy and strengthen the human body's magnetic field. A powerful therapeutic crystal that expands, stores, releases and regulates energy. Develop wisdom potential, enhance memory, help school, prevent radiation, help health, clear mind, calm emotions, and maintain safety. Iron gallstone: used in ancient Egypt and ancient Rome as a talisman, it has the power to strengthen the spirit and realize the desire, so whether you want to beat the love competitor or want to wear it when you win in the mall. It can also change existing habits, allowing you to break through difficulties, increase productivity, and make things more stable and practical. - [Before you buy] ● How long does it take: the goods will be produced after payment, and will be shipped from June to September. If they are finished early, they will be sent out early. If you need to discuss with us, you can make an order and then place an order. ● Message reply: We will reply to the news later on weekdays (19:00) with the fixed store holiday (Tuesday, Wednesday)! If you are in a hurry, you can switch to other instant contact methods, but you will reply later than when you are at work. However, we will try our best to take the time to reply :) ● The authenticity of natural stone: the ore with marked effect is real natural stone, and a few artificial stone with beautiful appearance will not indicate efficacy. Please rest assured, we have professional inspection before purchasing natural stone, but on the market. The technology of counterfeit goods is constantly improving. We are also striving to check the problem. If there is a fake problem in the real natural stone with marked effect, we will be fully responsible and have a physical storefront to make customers feel more at ease. ● Whether the actual product is the same as the photo: natural ore is impossible for each batch of raw materials to have the same color and crystal, especially crystals containing crystals (such as green ghost, strawberry crystal, titanium crystal, black crystal crystal, etc.) Not the same, and each screen has a color difference, we will put it in a reasonable situation, but if you insist on the same as the photo, please think twice, or directly to the store to buy will meet your expectations! ● Bead size marking: the size of the ore will be slightly different when it is ground into a ball (for example, 6mm but not a batch of material is just 6mm, there will be some slight difference), so we do not mark the ore size, but can The "label" at the bottom of the reference product page will have the size of the model's main proximity. Click on the label to see all similarly sized models. Also refer to the actual wearing photo. ● Whether the number of bracelets is the same as the photo: Normally, if you order a general hand, it will be "several", but as mentioned above, there will be slight differences in the size of the beads when making the bracelet (for example, sometimes the bead size is 6mm). , sometimes 6.5mm...etc.), the micro-adjustment will be made at the end when arranging (each one should be 0.5mm more, and the total length of the beads must be adjusted to be too long) to conform to normal. The length of the bracelet. ● The scope of customization: The custom range provided by us is tailor-made for "customized size of hand size" and "price is unchanged after simple replacement of crystals", with the fixed styles already on the shelves, and the rest further Custom system (such as re-matching, replacement price will change the order) can not receive orders on this platform! Not sure can ask questions :) [Dimensional measurement] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/86/6d/7a/866d7a8210c6c227bb7cf876db04ed5b.jpg ● Please measure the actual hand circumference according to the instructions. When placing the order, choose your actual hand circumference (not the total length of the bracelet). ● If you have a decimal point in the hand circumference, you can choose a similar size and fill in the hand in the remarks column. ● Each bead has different thickness, we will make it according to your actual hand circumference and add 1.5~2cm ● If you need to order a special size (less than 11 cm or higher than 19 cm), please contact us separately. [about crystal] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e6/8c/8b/e68c8b458cb6a52df407c6a5a433d6d0.jpg ● Turning the crystal into a beautiful accessory without being old-fashioned is something we are passionate about. Slow temperature has two major orientations on the design crystal bracelet: ▸ Beautiful orientation: Using the various natural characteristics of crystal change, you can create as you like. ▸ Functional orientation: A bracelet with no more than three natural stones, while taking care of the aesthetics, makes the crystal bracelet not too vulgar and still retains a certain strong functionality. → Whether it is for functional wear or pure look, it is very welcome! https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ba/22/ca/ba22cad72ed0d93a25e43d613e1a3e4c.jpg ● Crystal is endowed with many different functionalities in scientific and traditional research due to its rich natural minerals, crystals, cerium oxide and many other chemical elements. Slow temperature on the way to study crystal, like to refer to the information books from many parties, and then take the most commonly recognized effects and meanings, rather than arrogantly give a crystal too much functionality. ● We often use the natural color light emitted by the crystal to correspond to the seven major veins of the human body from Indian yoga. We provide professional consultation on any intractable diseases of crystal. Of course, you can also wear it purely because of its beauty! ● Attached here is the human body seven atmosphere wheel and the corresponding natural stone simple comparison table. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/4a/40/80/4a4080fc73f416bd419eccc7cd5881d6.jpg ● I don't know how to choose the ore bracelet that suits you. Welcome to discuss with us. Generally, we recommend to pick the style that you like and look good. Other auxiliary methods, such as the desired function, the chakra test, the birthstone, According to the analysis of the digital Yijing image, etc., we provide professional consultation, and can quickly refer to the following recommendations. ● The most recommended for slow temperature: Zhao Zhengcai: Green Ghost / Zhaozheng, partial wealth: Titanium crystal / stroke peach flower edge: strawberry crystal Avoid evil: 曜黑/ / Open wisdom: Amethyst / Help sleep: White Moonlight Improve Gynecology: Red Pomegranate / Stability Thoughts: Lapis Lazuli / Pleasure: Tianhe Stone All-round: tourmaline https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e0/56/ab/e056ab73afd5ec941eeca1e2268a8c8d.jpg ● Regarding the functional friend, remember to degauss the crystal regularly, it is recommended to remove the magnet at least once a month. It is touched by people who don't like it, the wish is come true, and the place is dirty (such as funeral home, hospital, cemetery), touch Degaussing is required for sewage and other things. The degaussing and purifying method is very much, and it can be queried on the Internet. The recommended method for slow temperature is the crystal hole purification method and the temple furnace purification method. ● The most important thing to hope for crystal to work is to believe it completely. Then, the crystal you own will not disappoint you. [About brass] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/72/32/ff/7232ff6b0256f7e0c85458cbd5758d7b.jpg ● Brass used for slow temperature is an EU-standard anti-oxidation and environmentally-friendly brass. It is of good quality, hypoallergenic, and resistant to oxidation and blackening. ● Generally, the normal oxidation rate (acid and alkali) is different. The normal body quality is only slightly oxidized after about one or two years of wearing. It is slightly wiped with a silver cloth and restores luster. It is easy to maintain. ● You can also touch water (sea water), just be careful not to touch chemicals such as perfumes and alkaline cleaners. [Brand value-added service] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/08/55/46/0855460a7642fbc0b8b051ddff4bc85a.jpg ● Each bracelet contains the brand's small tag. The bracelet that is certified for slow temperature can be exchanged free of charge once every six months. You can come to Tainan to change or mail it in person (you need to pay the return shipping). ● For the second time in half a year, the line change service charges $50 each time (only for natural stone products) 【other instructions】 https://i.pinimg.com/736x/13/0d/40/130d4001958b590ba8a6e9d37ff3761b.jpg ● Slow-temperature bracelets are made of Japanese imported elastic threads. They are durable and can be loosened after normal use for more than one year. Unless the external force pulls or sometimes the bracelet accumulates too much negative energy, it is easy to break the line. Please rest assured. Wear it. ● Bracelets can basically touch water, but some natural stones are not suitable for severe temperature changes, sun exposure or exposure to acid and alkali. The detailed precautions will be attached to the maintenance card of the product. ● All products have after-sales service, and the goods can be returned for repair. ● Please carefully measure the hand circumference. If you make a mistake for yourself, you will be required to pay for the return shipping. ● Special size (the hand circumference is not within 14~16cm) or special order goods can not be returned, but we hope that each customer receives the most satisfactory products, and will provide replacement service as much as possible. ● In addition to defective products, other reasons must be paid for the return shipping. [Packaging Service] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/6b/3d/24/6b3d24fea4617a1bd1527b816e99408c.jpg ● The ore products are all equipped with a high-grade crystal bag and a slow-temperature paper bag, "Total Chai Lai Bag", which is accompanied by a complete product after-sales service card and maintenance instructions. [Package plus purchase] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/37/c7/fb/37c7fb26c1e5b5bfeb52c7b0f2ff3c0f.jpg ● If you have a gift, you can purchase a slow temperature gift box with a slow temperature blue paper bag, a black gold gift box, a satin storage bag, and a slow temperature silver cloth. Please click the following link to purchase: https://www.pinkoi.com/product/19F295DP?category=8 https://i.pinimg.com/736x/c5/e9/0d/c5e90ddfbfd6e076cfee468ed8ce35de.jpg - Wear a slow-tempered bracelet, please enjoy it! Thank you for choosing our bracelet to accompany you or your friends. I hope it will fully represent your confidence and beauty, and accompany you through every day of life. We provide complete after-sales service to let your bracelet work with you. Glow, create more beautiful stories😊 If you have other custom ideas or have any questions about crystals or products, please feel free to contact us! https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e2/e4/95/e2e495175d35cf2970b223f2799efab6.jpg
- วิธีชำระเงิน
- บัตรเครดิต/เดบิด, PayPal, Alipay, LINE Pay
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- ร้องเรียนสินค้าชิ้นนี้


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Forum Post: Where are the Missing Five Million Workers? By Laura Flanders
Posted 8 years ago on May 18, 2012, 2:06 p.m. EST by PeterKropotkin
from Oakland, CA
This content is user submitted and not an official statement
"Where have all the workers gone?" David Wessel of the Wall St. Journal wondered about the labor force this week:
"In the past two years, the number of people in the U.S. who are older than 16 (and not in the military or prison) has grown by 5.4 million. The number of people working or looking for work hasn't grown at all."
So, where have all the workers gone? Have they retired, suspended their labors temporarily, or are they languishing on public assistance? Asks Wessel.
There are some other possibilities. Since the crash of 2008 there's no question that millions of Americans have indeed stopped looking for a job. But that doesn't necessarily mean they're not working. Look around, it's much more likely that the officially "unemployed" are busy, doing their best to make ends meet in whatever ways they can. Sex-work drugs and crime spring to mind, but the underground or "shadow" economy includes all sorts of off-the-books toil. From baby-sitting, bartering, mending, kitchen-garden farming, and selling goods in a yard sale, all sorts of people -- from the tamale seller on your corner, to the dancer who teachers yoga – are all contributing to the underground economy along with "employed" who pay them for their wares.
The "underground" is always with us. For better and often for worse, it's how marginalized populations tend to survive —often not very well. (Think of the old, the young, the formerly incarcerated, or foreign.) In recessions – surprise, surprise– "irregular" employment grows. Consider recent stories from Greece, about wageless public "workers" swopping skills, and trading food for teaching. Austrian economist, Friedrich Schneider, an expert in underground economies, has documentd a surge in shadow economy activity in 2009 and '10 in Europe. University of Wisconsin-Madison economist Edgar Feige has been doing his best to follow what's happened here.
Tracking the gap between reported and unreported income in the US since 1940, Feige finds:
Measuring unreported data is not easy, but from Feige's graph one thing is clear: there's as much unreported income swirling around the US today as there was in WWII under rationing, and that number's not going down with any speed.
Unreported income matters to the IRS because those "unreported" dollars are lost revenue for the taxman. (In 2001, the Internal Revenue Service estimates it was losing $345 billion in tax revenue. In 2009, according to Feige, that estimate could be approaching $600 billion.)
A shrinking workforce matters to policy makers too, as Wessel explains;
'Figuring out how many of those now on the job-market sidelines are likely to come back onto the field matters to gauging the current state of the economy, to fashioning the right remedy for the sluggish recovery and to evaluating prospects for economic growth, which hinge, in part, on an expanding labor force.
Getting a more accurate picture of our economy matters for another reason too. For one thing, ever since Adam Smith, we (at least we in the West) have been taught there is one set of rules, and one viable economy: the "end of history" economy of jobs and wages, profits and losses, and round the world trading on the stock market. The reality is, as farmer/science writer Sharon Astyk put it recently, what "the economy" is not the only economy.
"Let us remind ourselves that the informal economy is, in fact, the larger part of the world's total economy. When you add in the domestic and household economy of the world's households, the subsistence economy, the barter economy, the volunteer economy, the "under the table" economy, the criminal economy and a few other smaller players, you get something that adds up to 3/4 of the world's total economic activity. The formal economy - the territory of professional and paid work, of tax statements and GDP - is only 1/4 of the world's total economic activity."
Looking ahead at our employment and energy future, it's not at all clear what the economy will look like in years to come. With fewer dirty satanic mills to labor in, regular Joe and Jane workers are going to have find income that doesn't depend on them transmuting into celebrities or high-rolling mobsters of high finance. What are they going to do? For those who believe that stocks and bonds and 9-5 jobs are the only economy there is, the pictures dire.
For others, there's a world of possibility ahead. Gar Alperovitz and his colleagues at the Democracy Collaborative are about to launch a series on the upsurge of thinking that's currently happening about different ways in which people might support themselves and restructure the political and economy. They point to the exploding interest in "new economy" conferences and the array of real-world experiments, from solar-powered businesses to worker-owned cooperatives and state-owned banks.
"History dramatizes the implacable power of the existing institutions—until, somehow, that power gives way to the force of social movements. Most of those in the "New Economy" movement understand the challenge as both immediate and long term: how to put an end to the most egregious social and economically destructive practices in the near term; how to lay foundations for a possible transformation in the longer term." Writes Alperovitz in the first of five articles.
Could it be that the old economy is losing its grip, not only on our lives, but also on our ideas? There is much – much – more to come.


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SID Neutrino Open House May 29 - 31 in Miami
Signs International Distributor to show its new SID Neutrino and SID Neutrino label printers.
Signs International Distributor is hosting a SID Neutrino Open House event at its Miami, Florida, headquarters, May 29-31.
The company will be showcasing its new SID Neutrino and SID Neutrino Label printers. Both printers made their debut at the recent ISA Sign Expo in Las Vegas.
Based on Memjet printhead technology, the 5-color (CMYKK) SID Neutrino is equipped with five Memjet printheads, each with 70,400 nozzles with a 1.2-pL drop size. It can hit print speeds up to 12,600 sq ft/hr and offers a top resolution of 1600 dpi. Utilizing water-based dye inks, the single-pass Neutrino offers a maximum print width of 42 in.
The Open House will run from May 29 to May 31, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. each day. Attendance is free.


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|The Outlands
|Geographical information
|Tron system
|Points of Interest
|Flynn's Safehouse
Bostrum Colony
|Other information
|Kevin Flynn
|Behind the scenes
|TRON: Evolution
TRON: Legacy
TRON: Uprising
TRON RUN/r
The Outlands are vast wastelands in the Tron system that are located outside the boundaries of the Grid. They have craggy, treacherous terrain full of sheer rock walls and deep ravines. According to Quorra, very few programs venture into the Outlands, save for those few desperate enough to escape Clu's grasp. Kevin Flynn fled into the Outlands after Clu's betrayal in 1989 and established a home there. An ISO faction also established the Bostrum Colony in the Outlands.
- "Outlands" is also the name of two of Daft Punk's musical scores for the film.
Community content is available under CC-BY-SA unless otherwise noted.


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Scottstallaert necesitaba un nuevo diseño de logotipo y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 70 diseños de 24 diseñadores freelance.
Stallaert Chiropractic (Centre)
Stallaert Chiropractic is a rapidly growing natural health chiropractic clinic. We use cutting edge techniques that allow us to achieve optimal results. We use a drugless surgery free approach to achieving health. We believe that healing comes from within and that our body is capable of healing itself. In our office we teach the 5 Essentials of maximized living. What that means is that there are 5 components to achieving optimal health.
Our target market is families and adults between the ages of 28 - 56. Many of our patients are progressive thinking people that place a high priority on their health OR have no idea what we do but were referred to us through a friend or family member.
We are looking for a logo that can be used on multiple mediums, web, letterhead, print, clothing, etc. We would like a logo that will incororate our name "Stallaert Chiropractic" or Stallaert Chiropractic Centre" but also stand alone. We prefer healing type colors such as blues and greens but you can use your own creativity.
We are a professional company and require the logo to be the same. We DO NOT want any spines, hands, or people in the logo. We would prefer that the logo is more of a unique symbol representing us. We want to be able to use the logo in color and black and white, with the name and without, and also the name with the logo and without, and in color and black and white. Perhaps separate the name "Stallaert" and "Chiropractic" with different colors or font styles or one above the other.
Descubre cómo funciona un concurso de diseño u obtén más información sobre nuestros servicios de diseño de logo.


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Featured News - Current News - Archived News - News Categories
Tickets are now on sale for the fourth annual Lewiston Region Tour of Kitchens, set for June 9 and 10. The event runs from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in Lewiston and Youngstown. Six entertaining and cooking spaces will be featured.
Ticket holders will be treated to culinary samples created by chefs from area restaurants. The homes will also be paired with a retailer and decorator who will create tablescapes, an artful way to set a table for guests.
Here's What's on the Menu
Town Hall Restaurant
Shrimp and Grits
The Red Coach Inn/The Bistro at the Old Fort Inn
Steak salad wrap and seafood salad
The Nines Catering Company
The Nines Signature grilled cheese and chilled bloody Mary soup
The Youngstown Village Diner
Tomato soup Florentine and red, white and blue chicken salad slider
Macri's Italian Grille
Zucchini Tuscana
Shrimp gazpacho martini
Water Street Landing
WSL Creole andouille sausage-stuffed clams and WSL crab and corn fritters
DiCamillo Bakeryand The Village Bake Shoppe
Assorted specialty cakes and pastries
Tickets are $27 and are available at all Wegmans locations. They are available in Lewiston at DiCamillo Bakery (535 Center St.), and at The Village Bake Shoppe (417 Center St.).
Tickets can also be purchased online at www.TourofKitchens.net or by calling 716-745-9583. Tickets are limited; this event is expected to sell out during the pre-sale. More information and images of the featured homes are also available on the Tour of Kitchens website.
Any tickets still available on the day of the event can be purchased after 9 a.m. at Water Street Landing (115 S. Water St., Lewiston). It is strongly recommended that tickets be purchased in advance.
The event's presenting sponsor is Kinetic Kitchen and Bath. Silver spoon sponsors are CFM Stone Surfaces, Great Lakes Real Estate, California Closets, M&T Bank, Supermarket Liquors and Wines, and Wegmans.
Featured tablescapes will be designed by vanderpool:design, Canterbury Place, The Country Doctor, Homeward Bound, Summertime Blooms, RTM Design and Interiors, room, Ob's Paper Barn, Piccirillo's Florist and Basset Furniture.
New this year, The Youngstown Garden Club will feature a "Kitchens in Bloom" flower show and sale at the Bistro at the Old Fort Inn, 110 Main St., Youngstown. Here, patrons will find a flower market where perennials from members' gardens, culinary herbs and other garden items will be available for purchase. This event will be held from 10 a.m. until 2 p.m. on Saturday.
The Tour of Kitchens is a self-guided tour. The exact locations of the homes and all the details can be found in a souvenir program that accompanies each ticket. Included is a wine sampling and dessert tasting reception at Water Street Landing featuring sweets from The Village Bake Shoppe and DiCamillo Bakery, as well as local wines.
A portion of the ticket proceeds will benefit the Historical Association of Lewiston and the Porter Historical Society. For more information, call 716-745-9583.


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A year with God is a collection of 365 devotions focusing on the word of God. The devotions are approximately three paragraphs long and are equally balanced by lengthy passages from Old Testament scripture. All of the devotions in this book are based on readings from the Old Testament, but many different translations are featured — including The Message, the Contemporary English Version, and the New King James Version. Devotions are divided thematically by subjects like hope and fear, love and hate, perseverance and quitting, and faith and doubt.
I'm afraid that Nettelhorst's comments didn't add much to the Bible passages for me. And the book doesn't tell us anything about his credentials; nor does it say why only Old Testament selections are featured. I found the book to be a novel devotional format, but I can't say it's one that I will keep in my permanent library. Not recommended.
I received this book free from the publisher through the BookSneeze.com book review bloggers program. I was not required to write a positive review. The opinions I have expressed are my own. I am disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission's 16 CFR, Part 255 : "Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising."


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text:
Optimism raged through the veins of the Manchester United fans as they made their way to Old Trafford ten years ago to this Tuesday. Sure, they had lost 3-1 away to Real Madrid in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final and, yes, they would be without suspended duo Gary Neville and Paul Scholes for the return fixture. They were, however, uplifted by an invigorating second-half performance in central Spain, the absence of the man who had hurt them most there in two-goal Raul, and, particularly, a tradition of rousing comebacks in the daddy of European club competitions.
One of those had come against Real, at the Bernabeu in 1968, when the 'Busby Babes' scored twice without reply in the last 17 minutes to sneak into the European Cup final, which they won. Another two came in the semi-final and final of their charge to a second continental conquest in 1999, when they overturned seemingly impossible circumstances to edge Juventus in Turin and Bayern Munich in Barcelona.
Dream comebacks were a United speciality, the castle in which they would chase another was affectionately referred to as 'The Theatre of Dreams', and the Champions League final would unfold at Old Trafford. Getting past Vicente Del Bosque's men seemed like destiny.
But one man who never subscribed to scripts was at work in Manchester that evening. It didn't take him long to begin destroying United's.
Sir Alex Ferguson's charges had started brightly, with Ryan Giggs showing flashes of his threat and Ruud van Nistelrooy stinging Iker Casillas's fingers with a fizzing strike. But on 12 minutes – and within a mere 16 seconds of the ball being in the Real box – it was in the back of Fabien Barthez's net. Zinedine Zidane collected possession on the left and before his pass had even reached Guti, who was in the centre circle, Ronaldo had cutely slipped out of Rio Ferdinand's handcuffs and set off. The Spain midfielder masterfully threaded a through-ball into the path of the Brazil striker, who still had significant work to do as he reached it on the edge of the box, at a shot-hindering angle to the right, with the ball bouncing and running away from goal. Ronaldo, however, surprised the France goalkeeper by not only hitting it first time, but by also neglecting to take the obvious route across goal and instead fizzing a vicious, low drive into a seemingly non-existent gap inside his near post. Ruud van Nistelrooy's away goal had been cancelled out.
United equalised on the stroke of half-time, though, when Giggs and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer combined to gift Van Nistelrooy a predator's tap-in. It was tie on – at least for all of seven minutes.
For following a period of captivating Real possession shortly after the restart, Roberto Carlos played a defence-dissecting one-two with Zidane. The Brazil left-back then cleverly cut the ball back past Barthez and into the path of the 26-year-old Ronaldo, who had discreetly ghosted between Ferdinand and John O'Shea and duly did the rest from seven yards.
It was a magical night, just incredible. I remember when they substituted me in the second half, I left the field to an ovation from the fans. It was amazing.
Real's second away goal left United requiring four goals without reply to advance, but they sliced into that deficit just two minutes later, when Ivan Helguera inadvertently turned Juan Sebastian Veron's pass into his own net.
An almighty roar reverberated around Old Trafford, but the volume was at the polar opposite side of the sound scale just seven minutes later. That's when Ronaldo collected possession in midfield, galloped forward, slalomed right in an instant, and unleashed a ferocious 25-year drive that dipped into the back of the net to make it 3-2 on the night and 6-3 on aggregate. The impotent looks on the faces of the invariably indomitable United players said it all: a superhuman performance had put the tie out of reach.
Naturally, the United supporters were crestfallen. Yet they put their grand disappointment aside in a unique, unforgettable display of respect on 67 minutes. As Ronaldo jogged off the pitch to be replaced by Santiago Solari, the entire crowd gave him a standing ovation.
Perhaps the footballing Gods decided that seldom show of appreciation deserved a reward. For, thereafter, substitute David Beckham combined curl, speed and dip so masterfully that Casillas didn't even move as the No7's 20-yard free-kick went in off the underside of his crossbar. Beckham then bundled the ball home at the back post to earn United a 4-3 victory on the night.
It was one which nevertheless belonged to Ronaldo. One of the greatest footballers in history had delivered arguably the chef-d'oeuvre of his revered club career – one so magnificent that even his victims couldn't help but applaud.
"It was a magical night, just incredible," O Fenômeno told FIFA.com on its ten-year anniversary. "We had a great football match and the fans appreciated my performance. I remember when they substituted me in the second half, I left the field to an ovation from the fans. It was amazing."


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There's little more enjoyable for Britain's most-popular red-top tabloid than to splash on a celebrity breakup. But the Sun's coverage of the implosion of one of the world's highest-profile celebrity unions, between its proprietor Rupert Murdoch and his glamorous third wife, 44-year-old Wendi Deng, is notably terse.
"Media magnate Rupert Murdoch has filed for divorce from from his wife Wendi Deng. Mr Murdoch, 82, the head of the Sun's parent company News Corporation, filed a petition with the New York Supreme Court stating their 14-year marriage had 'broken down irretrievably.' They have two daughters."
And that was almost the full extent of the report posted early Friday on the Sun's website. The item—bereft of the Sun's hallmark tongue-in-cheek humor, salacious detail and intimate quotes from unnamed "friends"—concludes with a note of reassurance for any concerned Sun readers, shareholders or employees: "A News Corp spokesman said the divorce will have 'zero impact' on the firm."
But it's anyone's guess as to the impact of Murdoch's firm on his marriage. Divorce, as psychologists have long warned, is contagious—and News Corp has been negotiating its own painful split for some time. On June 11 its board secured the agreement of shareholders for the terms of separation. The longstanding union of multiple business interests is slated to divide at the end of the month: into a news-focused division bearing the company's original name and housing titles such as the Sun, the Times of London, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post, and a second entity, the cutely-updated 21st Century Fox, incorporating film and broadcast interests responsible for such rollicking fantasies as Avatar, the X-Men franchise and Fox News. The split follows revelations of a hacking scandal that in 2011 shuttered the Sun's sister red-top, News of the World, prompting two parliamentary inquiries, three separate police investigations into phone hacking, computer hacking, bribery and corruption, and an independent probe into the role of the press and the police led by Lord Justice Brian Leveson. And that was just at home. In the U.S., the scandal also attracted the attention of the Department of Justice.
If this has all been a heavy burden for an old man to bear, at least Murdoch had the support of Deng, 38 years younger and apparently so hardwired to protect him that in July 2011 she famously leapt to his defense against a comedian wielding a shaving-foam pie who infiltrated one of the U.K. parliamentary hearings. Murdoch has consistently denied knowledge of any illicit practices allegedly deployed to secure News of the World scoops but has issued apologies for any wrongdoing that may have occurred. At times during his testimony to parliamentarians and to the Leveson Inquiry he appeared confused, diminished, more of a King Lear than a Master of the Universe. "This is the most humble day of my life," he confided to the Westminster committee shortly before the foam pie flew.
After expressions of sorrow and regret, amid the pain of divorce and corporate turbulence, and in the twilight of his years, surely Murdoch has earned a little sympathy? If so, it's hard to find in Britain, a country whose media landscape he has shaped and whose political life he still seeks to influence. Today every broadsheet, including his own Times, carries news of his marital difficulties on its front page. "HACKED OFF—WITH EACH OTHER," declares the headline in the Independent above a photograph of Murdoch and Deng in happier times. Hacking-themed jokes also dominate the social media response. "Murdoch files for divorce. Can everyone please respect his privacy at this difficult time," tweeted Chris Atkins, a documentary filmmaker, whose 2009 film Starsuckers laid bare some of the unholy alliances between the British tabloids and their celebrity quarry.
The Leveson Inquiry also sought to illuminate the sometimes Byzantine workings of the media and the skein of potentially corrupting relationships between its practitioners and its subjects. Its recommendations for a new regulatory system, issued in November, were intended to bring about improved transparency and a healthier culture. Critics of Leveson warn that vital media freedoms risk being sacrificed in a "witch hunt" primarily directed against the tabloids. There are genuine grounds for concern and neither politicians nor media organizations have found agreement amongst themselves much less with each other on the best way forward.
In the meantime, Murdoch's own contributions to the debate have done little to help his image as a penitent or store up reservoirs of goodwill he might call on during his own sudden and uncomfortable moment in the spotlight. Last October the tycoon took to Twitter after hearing of a meeting between Prime Minister David Cameron and the actor and hacking victim Hugh Grant together with other well known members of Hacked Off, a group campaigning for stricter press regulation. "Told UK's Cameron receiving scumbag celebrities pushing for even more privacy laws. Trust the toffs! Transparency under attack. Bad," snarled @rupertmurdoch, an inveterate tweeter since the start of 2012. Nor did Murdoch hide his glee when newspapers, his own included, reported that two lawyers working on the Leveson Inquiry had holidayed together on the Greek island of Santorini. "Married mum-of-two Carine Patry Hoskins, 40, is now dating perma-tanned lawyer David Sherborne, 44," reported the Sun. "Ho! Ho!," responded Murdoch on Twitter. "Leverson becomes Loverson! Can affirm Santorini very romantic."
Since the breaking news of Murdoch's breaking news there have been no more such tweets, no more of the often near-daily insights into his thoughts or glimpses of his private life. For so many years the greatest proponent of invasive, no-holds-barred journalism, Murdoch is now its prey. Speculation is rife about the reasons for his split from Deng. The BBC's business editor Robert Peston added to the Twitter excitement: "Am also told that undisclosed reasons for Murdoch divorcing Deng are jaw-dropping – & hate myself for wanting to know what they are."
At bay, without Deng to shield him from foam pies and mud flinging, where might Murdoch turn? One answer might be within the pages of his very own Sun. Deirdre's Photo Casebook, the newpaper's long-standing advice column, invites readers to share their personal issues, which are then spun into photographic cartoon strips. Among the current dilemmas posed: "I bedded ex-wife's lesbian lover and we want to do it again."
"Back away now and perhaps no one will be hurt," the Sun's agony aunt responds. "Find someone you can have a proper relationship with." It's sage advice of the kind anyone in Murdoch's position might do well to heed.


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Eine Übersetzung in deutsch finden Sie hier.
Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene
66 Responses to "Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene"
At -80 latitude 12kybp, mean december insolation anomaly is negative, mean june insolation anomaly is neutral, but mean anual insolation anomaly is strongly positive. Something interesting must be happening in spring and/or autumn, can anyone elaborate?
Any idea why error bars are getting substantially larger as present is approached? What's happened to the Roman and Medieval warm periods? What's happened to the cooling in between, when 9 m high ice ridges, coming from the Black sea, were towering over the walls of Byzantium (Istambul now)?
@ Bouke
Fig.1 (Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)9(2011)
G. A. Schmidt .) Shows the much larger insolation changes around the eqinoxes than the solstices.(since CE 850)
On figure 3.
Why do the error bounds on the right hand side increase?
Surely with measurement of temperatures, the error bounds must decrease?
ie. We know current temperatures accurately, but will be unsure of temperatures 10,000 years ago?
[Response: The error bars on the Marcott et al work are because (unusually) there are less records included as you come up to the present. This is related to the difficultly in retrieving and dating the top of ocean sediment cores, while it is relatively easy to date the the termination of the glacial period (and beginning of the Holocene). – gavin]
Berenyi, given your…track record…please show me the supporting data that shows this isn't just something you've once again made up.
"…when 9 m high ice ridges, coming from the Black sea, were towering over the walls of Byzantium (Istambul now)?"
Dr Schmidt,
You say that the increase in uncertainty at the far end of the graph is due to few samples available. The authors have indicated that portion of their study is "not robust". So why use it?
When the results for the last few decades of a 2 millenial period are uncertain and not robust, including them risks the credibility of the entire study.
[Response: Our opinions on this will obviously differ, but including the later points along with the uncertainties allows people to assess this for themselves. Plus inclusion of data that overlaps in time but does not have the same uncertainty (i.e. PAGES-2K, HadCRUT4) provides some context. Pointing out where parts of a reconstruction have more uncertainties than others adds to its credibility in my opinion. – gavin]
Marvellous stuff.
Berényi Péter,
Can't you read graphs? There's a bump between 0 and 1000AD, and the error bounds give enough wiggle room for the MWP and Roman Warm periods.
Or is it that the wiggle room and bump isn't large enough for your preconceptions?
Mon cher M. Berenyi,
If you read the post carefully, both the reason for increasing error bars, and "what happened" to the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are addressed — and they are in fact present in the graph (Fig. 1) — just not perhaps as you expected to see them, but as consistent with a long term trend.
But I am remiss if my comment is actually troll-feed.
Interesting post. So what about the 5000 year puzzle? You seem to leave this hanging or am I missing something?
It would help to have a 10,000 year history of natural and anthropogenic albedo change as well.
I ran a Fourier filtering experiment using the Marcott et al reported frequency functions for their processing, and obtain results roughly identical to Grant Foster – any Holocene era temperature changes of a magnitude similar to current warming would indeed have shown up quite clearly in the Marcott analysis. (Not to mention that current warming simply won't reverse/vanish on the same time-scale as it has ramped up, due to the persistence of CO2…)
Modern warming indeed appears unique in the Holocene era.
It appears from the graph (Figure 3 blue line) that the unique rapid rise started in the late 1800′s.
1.) Does this suggest that humans were already putting out enough CO2 to cause global warming at that time?
2.) Even though the rapid rise is unique, it may have been natural (from the late 1800′s to 1940 – end of the blue line)?
3.) Something else… (my eyeballing of the graph was wrong, premise of my question was wrong, etc)?
Note: this may be a duplicate. I noticed comments making it through moderation time stamped after I'd asked my question. Please delete if my original post actually made it and just hasn't been moderated yet. Thanks.
If I recall correctly, Marcott using the high frequency noise in the shorter Mann et al 2008 reconstruction to estimate what type of shorter-term variability might be removed over the whole holocene due to coarse proxy resolution. This yields his Figure 3, where they argue that the decade from 2000–2009 has not yet exceeded the warmest temperatures of the early Holocene (5,000 to 10,000 yr B.P.) but it is warmer than 72 percent of the record.
I wonder if you could do a similar analysis, but look at a frequency density function of 100-year (or 50-year) trends instead of looking at a frequency density function of anomalies. Its not perfect, of course, as there is no reason to think that the Mann et al 2008 reconstruction is really characteristic of shorter term (< 400 year) variability throughout the holocene, but the results might be interesting. I strongly suspect they would show the recent period as somewhat unique.
> the top of ocean sedimentary cores
The top is almost always inhabited — the result is "bioturbation … rapid removal of sediments from the sediment surface (ingestion) followed by injection of this material (defecation) a few centimeters below the sediment surface. This process has significant implications for the age of surficial sediment and for discerning change in sediment contaminant concentrations following change in contaminant inputs. "
In an undisturbed site where nothing lives in the mud, you could get annual or even seasonal layers (varves").
It's not a big problem. It's one consideration when getting information out of core samples.
I am a 64 year old man in fair health, with chronic progressive aches and pains. But if I take the average readings of my health from the recent thirty years of my life, one has to say that I am vital and strong. (cough, cough)
And just this morning, I was thrilled to notice the water in my ice cube trays had frozen solid. After I add a little ethanol, I expect to greatly enjoy myself later on. But I dare not use either piece of evidence to prop up a deluded notion that I remain a young man on a cooling planet.
Cheers !
And so, unless we are able to do something about climate change, we shall be entering the obcene era.
Tad Boyd #13,
"It appears from the graph (Figure 3 blue line) that the unique rapid rise started in the late 1800′s.
1.) Does this suggest that humans were already putting out enough CO2 to cause global warming at that time?"
Yes, but not enough for the resulting global warming to obviously jump out of the random variations.
For context, here are a couple of graphs featuring relevant estimates:
You should generally not trust random graphs. Even if there's a .gov in the URL suggesting they're not simply made up, you shoudn't trust the impression you get for eyeballing graphs that may have been chosen to produce a particular impression. However, this being realclimate, you may hopefully trust that misleading or badly outdated data will be shot down.
Note that the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the less impact every additional mole has.
Also note that deforestation had a large impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations relative to the burning of fossil fuels before the end of the 19th century.
"2.) Even though the rapid rise is unique, it may have been natural (from the late 1800′s to 1940 – end of the blue line)?"
I'm not crazy about the word "natural" in this context because of the large impact of pre-industrical human activity.
Obviously temperatures were already affected by elevated levels of CO2.
But because there have been a lot of random variations, I'm not sure the circa 1875-1940 global warming was all that rapid or unique unless you consider it as part of the longer industrial-age warming trend which is of course remarkable indeed.
But no doubt other commenters would have something more cogent to say on the matter.
Tad Boyd @13 — Anthropogenic changes to so-called natural climate trends began to be quite sizable with the clearing of forests in Europe and North America for ever increased agricultural fields. Coal, Satan's cobbles, started being burned in appreciate quantities by 1750 CE and there was already appreciable heavy industry by about 1850 CE.
That the trend in global temperature only becomes positive around 1880 CE is an indication of what is called climate inertia combined with the declining orbital forcing which had to be overcome.
"What's happened to the Roman and Medieval warm periods? What's happened to the cooling in between, when 9 m high ice ridges, coming from the Black sea, were towering over the walls of Byzantium (Istambul now)?"
There were no ice ridges. And since the walls of Constantinople were 12 meters in height, a 9-meter 'ice ridge' wouldn't 'tower over them'. There were recorded episodes of the Marmara Sea icing over in the 1st century CE, the 4th century CE, and a succession of frozen sea winters from 800-1300 – but no 9meter ice ridges. Yavuz et. al. "The Frozen Bosphorus", 2007.
If you read the post carefully, both the reason for increasing error bars, and "what happened" to the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are addressed — and they are in fact present in the graph (Fig. 1) — just not perhaps as you expected to see them, but as consistent with a long term trend.
Yes, it occurred to me before that the Marcott reconstruction kind of puts the MWP into perspective. Prior to the last century it looks like we had a cooling trend of about 5k years, so it would be expected that temperatures in Medieval times would be warmer than in most of the last 700-800 years and, in the absence of modern anthropogenic warming, warmer than today.
So if there was a temporary but slight deviation from the long term trend, and throw in a bit of regional variation, then it could well be the case that NH temps in medieval times were particularly warm, even approaching today's levels (or exceeding them in some locations). But this would not be evidence that warming to the extent we have seen over the last century occurred naturally at that time without any human influence. I guess to be fair that it also counters the argument that the MWP is evidence for high climate sensitivity.
Is this a fair interpretation?
Tad Boyd @13.
Surely the one thing this post is at pains to point out is that it does not accurately propose the level at which temperatures began to turn and thus when "the unique rapid rise started" is also not on offer.
However I think your point is that the driver of such a rise would have to be strong enough by 1940 to be responsible for the loin's share of the 0.35C rise that we know from thermometers had occurred by 1940. (Note that HadCRUT4 shows (as graphed here) declining temperatures 1850-1908 and then a 0.47C rise to 1940.) Perhaps you are also wondering how far back such a driver would have a significant impact on temperature so as to start that "unique rapid rise."
If C02 is considered as that driver (not a ridiculous idea in principle, although it is more complicated than that as intimated @19) how much forcing and thus how much temperature rise could we expect from our CO2 emissions by, say, 1900 or 1940?
On the back of a fag packet. From the graph presented by Scripps Institute CO2 measured from ice cores had risen 20ppm by 1900 or 16% of the CO2 rise to date. By 1940 35ppm = 30%. The forcing per ppm is greater at lower CO2 levels and the slower rate of CO2 rise would mean more of the forcing was potentially balanced by temperature rise. But, ignoring that, a simple pro rata rise per ppm yields +0.13C (1900) +0.24C (1940).
Again very simplistically, if the wobbles from the Marcott et al reconstruction are seen as a possible size of natural low frequency wobbles of the order of 0.1C peak to peak, the idea that "the unique rapid rise" should have started before 1900 would fit with CO2 as the dominant driver. The size of natural high frequency wobbles may or may not be why HadCRUT4 shows a minimum in 1908. Certainly by 1940 a CO2 forcing would be dwarfing those natural low frequency wobbles and this appearing as a significant feature on a graph of millennial temperatures.
This lengthened reconstruction of global temperatures is no longer forming the shape of a hockey stick. Given hockey sticks are traditionally made from Mulberry and that Mulberry has a characteristic of growing slowly when mature (at least under natural circumstances), would it be fitting to christen the lengthened reconstruction developed here by Marcott et al as the "Mulberry Bough".
Although myself I would end the trace at 2012 with just a marker to show the 2100 projection, it surely would remain plain to any observer with half a brain that the spurt of growth we see on the end of that Mulberry Bough is not natural.
Are there any Geologists claiming that the planet has been warming for the last 11000 years? Were there ever any Geologists making that Claim? And have they revised their position recently similar to the way the Geological Society revised their position statement on recent warming ?
Here, is the AAPG claiming the earth to be warmer in the last 10,000 years…
" In recent decades global temperatures have risen. However, our planet has been far warmer and cooler today than many times in the geologic past, even within the past 10,000 years."
~ What is their evidence of that? Or is their only argument: "Well, it could have happened, it is possible, and it could be hidden because the data is not granular… " Or do they have real evidence?
Tad Boyd @13
Found that Gavin had replied to my question but it was sent to the borehole [#1300].
[Response: Other people can chime in – but I think it's more useful to think of the early 1800's as being a time when shorter term natural forcings (particularly volcanoes and solar) were pushing climate cooler than the long term trend would imply. Without anthropogenic influences there would have been a recovery of sorts but only to the long term trend – what has actually happened is vastly different. – gavin]
Thanks all for your responses.
I'd had the idea that more recent (than pre-1900) very high human emissions of CO2 drove global warming (the SUV/Commercial air flight era). I was aware of the idea that human activity much earlier than that had started to bring about global warming but did not know if this was generally the view of actual climate scientists. I don't usually comment because I'm not qualified to make a point, but occasionally do post a question to try to get clarification on what actual climate scientists believe vs. all the other ideas out there and have gotten good direction here at RealClimate (especially from Gavin).
From other commenters that were kind enough to respond to my question I've gotten – we (humans) were warming the planet (offsetting cooling) early on (1700's and 1800's). Gavin indicates we would have seen a recovery of sorts without human influences but not what has actually happened.
MARodger – You laid out the influences of 20ppm CO2 and 35ppm CO2 increases. (Note – in my reading when Stephan was talking about the unique rapid rise under Figure 3, I was focused on the Marcott et al. blue line and thought that was the context for his description but using HadCRU as the context for the unique rapid rise Stephan is talking about works too as the rapid rise pre 1940 in red, is even more dramatic). Your response helps a great deal to sharpen my clumsy question.
Stefan and/or Gavin – I was assuming that the 1940 and before portion of the rise (Marcot et al. blue line, but HadCRU red line works too) was at least part of what Stefan was referring to as the unique rapid rise but MARodger has indicated my assumption is off in some manner so any instruction regarding that is appreciated. If my assumption is valid in some sense, is the uniqueness of the pre 1940 rapid rise the result of the human activity part of the 20ppm and 35ppm CO2 increases MARodger discusses?
Sorry if MARodger's response should have sufficed. It is possible I am in the <50% brain category. I do appreciate that actual climate scientists are willing to interact at this level helping separate what the scientists believe vs. the rest.
> our planet has been far warmer and cooler today …
The AAPG authors:
Their approach starts and ends with politics and money, not climatology:
Introduction to Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change
Power Point Presentation
Lee C. Gerhard
History has seen many memorable public confrontations between belief systems and science data. Despite the scientific merit of the data, belief systems are powerful endemic and forces against which science must struggle. Some modern examples are evolution and global climate change..
Two versions of the presentation are included, one for scientists, without on-slide comment, and one for the lay public with some additional notation.
These presentations will be updated as new information becomes available.
The notes for the scientist version contain many of the base references; a reading list, partly annotated, is appended to this introduction.
So — "evolution and climate change" — I wonder what he means by that?
In Fig 2 I am having a hard time reconciling Mean Dec and Mean Annual. The Mean June makes perfect sense – high insolation in N. Hemisphere extending to Arctic. The Mean Dec does not show high insolation in S. Hemisphere or Antarctic yet the Annual Mean then shows high insolation in Antarctic.
Also, with the large solar forcing 8-10K ago "more than 30 watts per square meter" (in summer I assume) I would have expected even higher temperatures than modern 20th century. Why is that expectation wrong?
Quote from that .doc by Lee C. Gerhard:
The mission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organization, is not to study causes of climate change, but to document only one cause, human impacts on climate.
Quote from the resolution that started the IPCC:
[the UN] Endorses the action of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in jointly establishing an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide internationally co-ordinated scientific assessments of the magnitude, timing and potential environmental and socio-economic impact of climate change and realistic response strategies
When I read these two things, I get the urge to add Lee C. Gerhard to my list of intellectually bankrupt people.
Care to explain this extract from the "history" page of the ipcc.ch site.
Nothing about NOT human-induced climate change…
"Today the IPCC's role is as defined in Principles Governing IPCC Work, "…to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies."
[Response: Understanding "the scientific basis of the risk of human-induced climate change" obviously requires knowing the context of natural climate change and variability – explaining the amount of space in the IPCC reports given to issues associated with paleo-climate, ENSO, the AMO, signal-to-noise calculations, detection and attribution etc. This idea that IPCC doesn't look at internal variability or natural forcings is just bogus. – gavin]
Why is the right hand side figure not in the center of the error bounds?
AAPG: http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/
collection of papers and graphics.
There may be some interesting material, e.g.
Modeling Holocene Primary Productivity Changes in the Barents Sea
we investigate organic carbon sedimentation patterns and surface water productivity changes in response to Holocene Previous HitclimateTop variability in northern high latitudes. We studied 197 surface sediment samples, 10 short (ca. 10-30 cm long) and 2 long (3-4 m) cores representing the last 10000 years in the western sector of the Barents Sea between Spitsbergen and the Norwegian mainland.
The Barents Sea is a shallow (mean depth ca. 200 m) Arctic Ocean shelf sea which is partially covered by sea ice in the northeast in the winter. Warm, saline Atlantic water (AW) enters the Barents Sea in the southwest and flows east- and northward until it is subducted under cold, fresh Arctic water (ArW) which enters the Barents Sea from the northeast and flows southwestward. The region where the AW is subducted under the ArW is called the Polar Front (PF). Its position is mainly topographically controlled but also depends on the relative strengths of the two water masses. This is also the region of the winter ice margin. Previous research has shown that the Barents Sea is one of the most productive shelf seas in the world.
We use OF-Mod 3D, an organic facies modeling software developed by SINTEF Petroleum Research, to reconstruct PP changes and organic carbon accumulation across the western Barents Sea throughout the past 10000 years. OF-Mod 3D is a predictive, process-based, forward-modeling tool used to calculate organic matter preservation in a 3D grid throughout the modeled domain. The surface sample data set is used to calibrate the model to the present-day situation and we will show the spatial distribution of modeled PP throughout the Barents Sea region. We include the position of the PF in the model as a northern boundary for PP during the winter and compare organic matter accumulation in the presence and absence of sea ice.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #120098©2013 AAPG Hedberg Conference Petroleum Systems: Modeling the Past, Planning the Future, Nice, France, October 1-5, 2012
#27–"I get the urge to add Lee C. Gerhard to my list of intellectually bankrupt people."
No obvious reason to resist the urge.
Well, look around there first, don't take the worst you can find and write off the rest unseen. That one's a dinosaur, you expect those. They're holdovers from the Antideluvian Age, er something.
Petroleum geologists have to understand modeling and climate.
Keying off 26 and 27:
Gerhard's attempts a smear with "The mission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organization, is not to study causes of climate change, but to document only one cause, human impacts on climate."
In a lay-down, he's right. Our climate would not have nearly the focus, the research, the reviews, and the controversy, if it was just 'understanding it all'. But while Gerhard thinks he's exposing a secret agenda scam, he's actually admitting that he can't join the dots. He doesn't understand that rising GHG pollution is contributing to a disruption of the climate so geologically sudden and ubiquitous in extent, that the parallels best matching it are extinction events. That's exactly why the IPCC synthesizes a global state of the change every X years. Gerhard displays a kind of Victorian attitude that somehow if the IPCC just stopped talking about, it would be less of a problem.
MARodger @ 23: I was thinking the same thing, but what I see is more like a kind of ergonomically made scythe with a curved handle. (links to images seem to be too long for the filter)
Meanwhile, on the topic of paleo-climate, Hansen has a new piece out in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:
"Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide"
Pretty sobering stuff. Here's the discussion at CP:
#23 >Given hockey sticks are traditionally made from Mulberry…
Hockey sticks were never made from mulberry…originally made from hop hornbeam (Ostrya virginiana), then later ash, birch, poplar, and willow. Mulberry is not a commercially viable wood.
#38–My initial reaction, too, but you're not thinking of the correct type of hockey for this context:
"1860s Hockey taken to India. Stickhead made shorter; move from Ash to Mulberry timber for the stick head."
"This idea that IPCC doesn't look at internal variability or natural forcings is just bogus."
Yes it's bogus. Of course they look at it. Whether or not they FOCUS on it is the question.
What is behind the quoted paragraph when you read it at face value is that this internal variability is just background (proof is, it's not even mentioned). They say they assess impacts, mitigation and adaptation of HUMAN-induced climate change. Implying that the IPCC is here to confirm a preconceived theory/idea: HUMAN-induced climate change is the most important to care about. IPCC is not here to care about the impacts of natural variability. The scope of work is clear.
I guess it is because internal variability had already been found to have negligible impact compared to human-induced at the time IPCC was created. But then I hear people saying: it's hard for IPCC people to question the premises on which it has been created.
[Response: This is just very strange. The IPCC is indeed designed to focus on the potential for anthropogenic impacts on climate and I don't see what is so bad about that. The answer might well have been that there weren't any important ones. Other review panels (on the Supersonic Stratospheric Transports etc.) come up with not much and are generally set aside – this happens all the time. The IPCC premise is that there is a potential issue worth investigating (a true statement), not that climate sensitivity is some fixed number or that natural variability is negligible. The idea that scientists would work on an assessment that they knew to be pointless is nuts. It's not like these things are fun. – gavin]
Can anyone point me to articles discussing the accuracy of the various proxies themselves? I apologize for my ignorance on this, but to me it seems our understanding of the relationship between the proxy data and temperature should be calibrated and tested against the observed temperature record. The error bars seem to indicate that we know the exact global temperature within 0.2 degrees C 1000 years ago, but where we have actual temperature data, the error margin is more than a degree (which more than covers the observed warming).
In short, do the error bars indicate that science is 95% confident in the real global temperature to within less than 1 degree C for the last few thousand years, or that it is 95% confident that the proxies, using the best available techniques to calibrate calibrate with global temperature, is accurate to within 1 degree C?
@41 – Climate proxies
> David C.
An explanation of that will either assume you did pass Statistics 101, or that you did not. Have you that background in statistics already? If not, some background is needed.
You've run into a problem that confuses a lot of people.
in 2005, a team led by Sarah Belia conducted a study of hundreds of researchers who had published articles in top psychology, neuroscience, and medical journals. Only a small portion of them could demonstrate accurate knowledge of how error bars relate to significance. If published researchers can't do it, should we expect casual blog readers to?
Confidence Intervals
First off, we need to know the correct answer to the problem, which requires a bit of explanation….
No, I'm not going to try to explain it, I'm a student here myself. Just sayin', this is an area that takes serious effort to get even a fair idea of what they're really saying.
None of your paraphrases above seems, to me, close to the mark.
Tad Boyd @26.
You do present your enquiries in an interesting way, so I don't know but perhaps this might help. (Note that I am by no means a "climate scientist," actual or otherwise.)
Because Marcott et al only shows long-term fluctuations, a robust comparison between the blue shoot at the end of the Fig 3 trace and HadCRUT4 is always going to be difficult, especially with the Marcott et al error bars flying off so rapidly. And also note the comment in the post about the "flexibility" of such a "join" although this does not affect the size of the Marcott & the HadCRU rises.
Perhaps to compare apples & apples, HadCRUT4 should be represented far less precisely, say by just 3 x 55-year averages. 1877 -0.32C, 1932 -0.19C, 1987 +0.16C. The BEST land temperature record suggests that HadCRUT4 is not showing all of this "strong rising trend" because it appeared to start earlier than 1850 in the BEST data. So, like the 5 final green dots from PAGE2K, the 1800-1940 0.25C rise in the Marcott et al blue trace is not far from what we see in the thermometer records.
Thus far this analysis is fuzzing out the short term wobbles. But you perhaps allude to wondering how much of the pre-1940 temperature rise (presumably the 1910-40 period) is wobble and how much is "strong rising trend."
The climate forcings that lie behind the recent wobbles and the "strong rising trend" of HadCRUT4 can be calculated with varying accuracy. The graphs here by Sato et al presents forcings 1880 to date. Note the green plot – this is mostly but by no means all CO2 and that it is not flat back in 1880 (my point @26 with the +20ppm & +35ppm). This green plot is the big positive driver behind the "strong rising trend" but there are also very significant negative drivers.
It is a major task of climatology to establish these forcings with more accuracy and to marry the forcings with the temperature record. While this work remains incomplete, there exists room for speculation about natural oscillations, speculation that deniers love to over-amplify into reasons for ignoring that green plot in the Sato et al graph. But my take-away from the Sato et al graph is that the green plot is a little too scary to be ignored.
For most of the time covered by these graphs, the thermal mechanism would appear to be more-or-less in a steady state, just quietly following various changes in the forcings. We do not appear to be in a steady state at the moment.
If we assume the CO2 concentrations stay at the current levels, and if we ignore any positive feedback from methane and so on, is it possible to calculate what temperature we might get to, given enough time?
Peter Smith #45,
That's the big question; what the sensitivity metric was created for.
Assuming all forcings (methane, smog and stuff) except CO2 at pre-industrial levels and atomspheric CO2 at the current level, "fast" feedbacks (such as snow cover but excluding the very slow melting of the large ice masses) should get the average global temperature to around 0.52 * sensitivity above the pre-industrial average (if I recall correctly).
Now sensitivity is likely to turn out to be around 2 to 4 centigrades so (ignoring the many caveats) the answer you're looking for would be between +.7 to +1.8 on the graph at the top of the page.
Re Peter Smith @ #45, it is instructive to look at what earth's climate was like the last time its atmosphere contained 400 ppm CO2, which would be around 3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene. Global mean temperature then was 2-3C higher than today (and much higher towards the poles), it's thought there was a near constant El Nino state, and the West Antarctic ice sheet had collapsed, raising sea level by as much as 25 meters. That said, at about this time the Panama seaway closed, which dramatically changed ocean circulation patterns, and uplift of the Rocky Mountains was also taking place, so the mid-Pliocene is far from a perfect analogy.
I saw this headline in Science:
Researchers Wary as DOE Bids to Build Sixth U.S. Climate Model
"Many researchers are excited about the nascent project, but others worry it could divert resources from existing collaborations."
Stefan: nice post, thanks.
@29 Bouke, see DeSmogBlog entry for Lee C. Gerhard.
All: keep an eye out for Bill Ruddiman's Earth Transformed, which is supposed to be out in October (after some confusion about dates.) I think this sheds more light on the last ~8,000 years, relevant both to Marcott, et all and PAGES2K. Compared to past interglacials (when well-aligned, which took a lot of work), the usual slow CH4/CO2 downtrends had been slowed well before the Industrial Revolution started.
The cover illustrates the part of the story that comes from Chinese rice paddy archaeology and methane curves compared to other interglacials.
For anyone attending AGU in December, Bill will be giving the Tyndall Lecture.
considering that humans have now emitted 550 billion tonnes of co2 to date and 1 trillion tonnes emitted brings about the 2C danger threshold (often spoken about by those concerned about such things)and we emit now around 33 billion tonnes rising at 2-3% per annum means that in just a few decades from now the trillion tonnes would have been passed.
Is it all bad – probably not – but its not all good either and some will definitely suffer from increased flooding and droughts, food shortages and more than likely war as a consequence of such things occurring. It might already be occurring in Syria and Egypt due to food pressures caused by ACC.
the higher the temperature gets the worse it will probably be although I am sure that places such as southern England can continue to reap the rewards of growing pinot noir and chardonnay grapes for sparking fizz.


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Many species of waterbird are in decline because of a loss of wetland habitats and governments need to do more to protect "flyway" migration routes, an international study said on Monday.
OSLO -- Many species of waterbird are in decline because of a loss of wetland habitats and governments need to do more to protect "flyway" migration routes, an international study said on Monday.
"Global actions for the protection of migratory waterbirds are losing the race with economic development," according to the report about birds such as ducks, geese, plovers or sandpipers and based on the work of about 450 experts in 59 nations.
"As a result, many species are rapidly declining," it said.
The report was presented by the Dutch and British governments and Wetlands International and was backed by U.N. agencies and more than a dozen governments including the United States.
"In areas where governments are working to protect sites along important migratory routes, the results are promising," it said. The study said 170 of 614 waterbird species reviewed were now endangered.
It blamed falling bird numbers mainly "on loss and degradation of wetland (and other) habitats". Wetlands are being drained for uses such as farming, roads or towns.
The report, entitled "Waterbirds around the world", urged governments to preserve wetlands, work out recovery plans for threatened species and sign international accords to protect "flyways," or migration routes.
Many species of waterbirds migrate thousands of kilometres, often from breeding sites in the Arctic where they can nest on the ground with little fear of predators. They stop off at wetlands along the flyways to eat and rest.
"Little conservation action is being taken for many globally threatened species," it said. It listed species such as the red crested goose, the milky stork, the sooty albatross and the Baikal teal as endangered.
It said nations in Europe and North America were among those acting to protect wetlands and also praised Argentina and Chile, for instance, for preserving habitats of the ruddy headed goose.
But it criticised South Korea for draining coastal mudflats at Saemangeum that were an important habitat for the spoonbilled sandpiper and Nordmanns greenshank.
The report also said many species were under threat from global warming, blamed by almost all scientists on human burning of fossil fuels. It said there was a need for greater surveillance of diseases, amid worries about bird flu.
Source: Reuters
Contact Info:


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Arts & Events
Theater Review: 'Metamorphoses'--Inferno Theatre Brings Ovid to Berkeley
"Remember, if you find a fork in the road—take it!"
The Satyr's advice or dare—tossed off by a lusty, snorting Valentina Emeri as the half-human animal, or half-animal human—is taken up by the whole troupe as Inferno Theatre's cast appears to endlessly expand in number throughout their new show, each player taking on a new shape, as they proceed through the tangled intricacies of Ovid's 'Metamorphoses,' in company founder Giulio Cesare Perrone's deft, charming, yet often shadowy adaptation of Ovid's own adaptation of the transformations of classical mythology.
Starting off with a furtive band of Neo-Shamans stealing into the woods to celebrate the earth, carrying suitcases (which they empty, full of dead leaves) and potted trees, led by Orpheus, a dreadlocked, clear-voiced Rudradeep Chakrabarti playing harmonium and singing Qawwali songs, 'Metamorphoses' has an almost whimsical quality at first, like a slightly skewed version of an old joke: A half-dozen Neo-Shamans walk into the woods ...
But soon the marvelous interplay between the actors—the best yet from this ensemble-based physical/gestural theater company—turns the whole stage, the floor space of the historic South Berkeley Community Church, into a constantly moving fresco of their transformations of shape and character—a snarling Lycaon (Michael Needham) corners an antlered Actaeon (Dilan MacHardy), with Diana the Queen of the Hunt (Simone Bloch) nearby, framed in the phases of the moon, nocking her bow; Echo (Sabrina Wenske), ever-repeating the other's last word, while Narcissus (Freddy Izaguirre-Merlos) regards his own shape, reflected in water; Orpheus making the eerie, stiff, shrill-voiced company of the dead bop a little with his catchy music, but unable to bring Eurydice (Nkechi) back to the light ...
Just a few of the metamorphoses that are played out before the spectators, all given tokens, grains of corn, by the Satyr, as the old world of myth unfolds, then folds back up inside the modern world we're more familiar with.
But the denizens of the old world of myth also look back, sometimes expressing regret, or defiance: "Daedalus is my name, son, and Icarus is yours, remember?" or "Lycaon was my name when I was a man ... [Echo repeats the end of his sentences] ... Zeus was no god; he was only a man, and I was the only one to defy him."
(The Titans, those defeated primordials, whose faint memory Herman Melville was dedicated to.)
And the Satyr is "homeless at the moment." Narcissus cautions Echo about Orpheus: "Go easy on the guy. His wife just died awhile ago, and he thinks he can still see her, talk to her."
The past and present constantly come together, its own transformation ...
The music by the cast is played on harp, melodian and guitar. Perrone's stage direction of the actors works seamlessly with his set and costume designs, at one point turning Nkechi, with the addition of a carved African bulging torso and a kind of marionette rig, manipulated by other actors onstage, into a strange vision of Gaia, Mother Earth, become a spider puppet, legs combing the air ... Michael Palumbo's lighting and Bruno Louchouarn's sound design and compositional music take the crystallized image of the performance even further, between the redwood walls of this old Arts and Crafts church.
It's exciting to watch a company that began as a unique one develop, enrich and surpass what it's already done and move into new territory with confidence.
'Metamorphoses' is the perfect theatrical entertainment for this time of year, All-Hallows and All Saints.
This weekend only, a $5 ticket promotion. See infernotheatre.org
8 pm, Thursday through Sunday (Fridays at 9), through November 23. No Sunday shows October 27 or November 10. Friday, November 9 at Laney College, Oakland, 900 Fallon, near Lake Merritt BART. All other shows at South Berkeley Community Church, 1802 Fairview (entrance on Ellis), off Adeline near Ashby BART. $10-$25 (Thursdays & Sundays, 2-for-one until November 21), $5-$20 at Laney. infernotheatre.org or for info: 984-4914.


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Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Soon this blog will be boasting a new name, a new site, and a new location - both domain and geographical. When I started it just over a year ago I had no idea I'd stick with it long enough to justify a more involved format.
It does.
Additionally, in the next few weeks Mr. TA and I will be relocating to the East Coast - and I'm sure you all understand how unlikely it is I will be cooking anything in the car to talk about. We will be making some pretty amazing stops on our journey to the other coast though, and I'll be sure to provide any photos of interest upon my return to the blogosphere.
I'm not sure how long it will take to get my kitchen stuff back, but as soon I do I'll be back in the kitchen, cooking away to my heart's content.
See you on the other side!
7 comments:
- The Duo Dishes said...
Good luck with the move. We miss the East.
- July 21, 2009 at 12:00 PM
- Kristin @ Going Country said...
Oh, good luck! I'm having some flashbacks of my own many relocations. While for the most part, I'm very happy to be done with all of that, one thing I DID really love? Walking into a completely empty house, before it got filled with furniture and crap.
I'm sure a psychologist would have something to say about that . . .
- July 22, 2009 at 4:51 AM
- Philomena said...
All these changes sound so exciting -
good luck with everything, and see you back here soon!
- July 23, 2009 at 4:35 AM
We look forward to welcoming you to the east coast! SweetBird's MiL, sFiL, gMiL, & gFiL.
- July 23, 2009 at 4:41 PM
- SuzieQ said...
Hopefully I'll get to come visit soon. I know I didn't get to see you as often as I would have liked and we kept meeting on the East coast anyway - so now maybe it will be even easier to see both you girls at the same time. I love you hope your trip is wonderful. Love Mom
- July 30, 2009 at 10:46 AM
I'm going to be doing the same thing to my blog, ya know, changing it to a web blog. Frankly I am scared to death! I am certain that all my connections, links and friends are going to disappear. My web developer keeps assuring me that it is all going to be okay. What are you doing to remedy that? How's your road trip?
- August 11, 2009 at 12:27 PM
- Unknown said...
Really want to know the changes.
SEO projects
- October 12, 2010 at 2:29 AM