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July 30, 2019
Global Market Comments
July 30, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
Global Market Comments
July 30, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
The recent appointment of my old acquaintance, Judy Shelton, to the Fed places a monetary policy once considered impossible solidly on the table. For your see, Judy has long advocated that the US return to the gold standard.
If the American economy moves into the next recession with interest rates already near zero, the markets will take the rates for all interest-bearing securities well into negative numbers. This has already happened in Japan and Germany.
At that point, our central bank's primary tool for stimulating US businesses will become utterly useless, ineffective, and impotent.
What else is in the tool bag?
How about large-scale purchases of Gold (GLD)?
You are probably as shocked as I am with this possibility. But there is a rock-solid logic to the plan. As solid as the vault at Fort Knox.
The idea is to create asset price inflation that will spread to the rest of the economy. It already did this with great success from 2009-2014 with quantitative easing, whereby almost every class of debt securities were Hoovered up by the government.
"QE on steroids", to be implemented only after overnight rates go negative, would involve large scale purchases of not only gold, but stocks, government bonds, and exchange-traded funds as well.
If you think I've been smoking California's largest cash export (it's not the raisins), you would be in error. I should point out that the Japanese government is already pursuing QE to this extent, at least in terms of equity type investments and ETFs and already owns a substantial part of the Japanese stock market.
And, as the history buff that I am, I can tell you that it has been done in the US as well, with tremendous results.
If you thought that president Obama had it rough when he came into office in 2009 with the Great Recession on, it was nothing compared to what Franklin Delano Roosevelt inherited.
The country was in its fourth year of the Great Depression. US GDP had cratered by 43%, consumer prices crashed by 24%, the unemployment rate was 25%, and stock prices vaporized by 90%. Mass starvation loomed.
Drastic measures were called for.
FDR issued Executive Order 6102 banning private ownership of gold, ordering them to sell their holdings to the US Treasury at a lowly $20.67 an ounce.
He then urged congress to pass the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which instantly revalued the government's holdings at $35.00, an increase of 69.32%. These and other measures caused the value of America's gold holdings to leap from $4 to $12 billion. That's a lot of money in 1934 dollars, about $208 billion in today's money.
Since the US was still on the gold standard back then, this triggered an instant dollar devaluation of more than 50%. The high gold price sucked in massive amounts of the yellow metal from abroad creating, you guessed it, inflation.
The government then borrowed massively against this artificially created wealth to fund the landscape altering infrastructure projects of the New Deal.
It worked.
During the following three years, the GDP skyrocketed by 48%, inflation eked out a 2% gain, the unemployment rate dropped to 18%, and stocks jumped by 80%. Happy days were here again.
Monetary conditions are remarkably similar today to the those that prevailed during the last government gold buying binge.
There has been a de facto currency war underway since 2009. The Fed started when it launched QE, and Japan, Europe, and China have followed. Blue-collar unemployment and underpayment is at a decades high. The need for a national infrastructure program is overwhelming.
However, in the 21st century version of such a gold policy, it is highly unlikely that we would see another gold ownership ban.
Instead, the Fed would most likely move into the physical gold market, sitting on the bid for years, much like it recently did in the Treasury bond market for five years. Gold prices would increase by a multiple of current levels.
It would then borrow against its new gold holdings, plus the 4,176 metric tonnes worth $200 billion at today's market prices already sitting in Fort Knox, to fund a multi trillion-dollar infrastructure-spending program.
Heaven knows we need it. Millions of blue-collar jobs would be created and inflation would come back from the dead.
Yes, this all sounds like a fantasy. But negative interest rates were considered an impossibility only years ago.
The Fed's move on gold would be only one aspect of a multi-faceted package of desperate last ditch measures to extend economic growth into the future which I outlined in a previous research piece (click here for "What Happens When QE Fails" .
That's assuming that the gold is still there. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin says he saw the gold himself during an inspection that took place of the last solar eclipse over Fort Knox in 2018. The door to the vault at Fort Knox had not been opened since September 23, 1974. But then Steve Mnuchin says a lot of things. Persistent urban legends and Internet rumors claim that the vault is actually empty or filled with fake steel bars painted gold.
Global Market Comments
May 8, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
Gold has become the ugly duckling during this bull market for stocks and bonds. However, that is not going to last.
Gold will eventually come back in fashion and when it does, how high could it really go?
The question begs your rapt attention as the possibility of Britain leaving the EC has suddenly unleashed a plethora of new positive fundamentals for the yellow metal.
It turns out that gold is THE deflationary asset to own. Who knew?
I was an unmitigated bear on the price of gold after it peaked in 2011. In recent years, the world has been obsessed with yields, chasing them down to historic levels across all asset classes.
But now that much of the world already has or is about to have negative interest rates, a bizarre new kind of mathematics applies to gold ownership.
Gold's problem used to be that it yielded absolutely nothing, cost you money to store, and carried hefty transactions costs. That asset class didn't fit anywhere in a yield-obsessed universe.
Now we have a horse of a different color.
Europeans wishing to put money in a bank have to pay for the privilege to do so. Place €1 million on deposit on an overnight account, and you will have only 996,000 Euros in a year. You just lost 40 basis points on your -0.40% negative interest rate.
With gold, you still earn zero, an extravagant return in this upside down world. All of a sudden, zero is a win.
For the first time in human history, that gives you a 40 basis point yield advantage over Euros. Similar numbers now apply to Japanese yen deposits as well.
As a result, the numbers are so compelling that it has sparked a new gold fever among hedge funds and European and Japanese individuals alike.
Websites purveying investment grade coins and bars crashed multiple times last week, due to overwhelming demand (I occasionally have the same problem). Some retailers have run out of stock.
And last week, the fever went pandemic as silver rocketed 14.28%, and others like Platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) were also frenetically bid.
So I'll take this opportunity to review a short history of the gold market (GLD) for the young and the uninformed.
Since it peaked in the summer of 2011, the barbarous relic was beaten like the proverbial red-headed stepchild, dragging silver (SLV) down with it. It faced a perfect storm.
Gold was traditionally sought after as an inflation hedge. But with economic growth weak, wages stagnant, and much work still being outsourced abroad, deflation became rampant.
The biggest buyers of gold in the world, the Indians, have seen their purchasing power drop by half, thanks to the collapse of the rupee against the US dollar. The government increased taxes on gold in order to staunch precious capital outflows.
You could also blame the China slowdown for declining interest in the yellow metal which is now in its fifth year of falling economic growth.
Chart gold against the Shanghai index and the similarity is striking until negative interest rates became widespread in 2016.
The brief bid gold caught in 2015 over war fears in Syria, Ukraine, and then Iraq was worth an impressive $160 rise.
That is when the diplomats got involved and hostilities were at least delayed causing gold to roll over like the Bismarck.
In the meantime, the gold supply/demand balance was changing dramatically.
While no one was looking, the average price of gold production soared from $5 in 1920 to $1,300 today. Over the last 100 years, the price of producing gold has risen four times faster than the underlying metal.
It's almost as if the gold mining industry is the only one in the world which sees real inflation since costs soared at a 15% annual rate for the past five years.
This is a function of what I call "peak gold." They're not making it anymore. Miners are increasingly being driven to higher risk, more expensive parts of the world to find the stuff.
You know those tires on heavy dump trucks? They now cost $200,000 each, and buyers face a three-year waiting list to buy one.
Barrack Gold (ABX) didn't try to mine gold at 15,000 feet in the Andes, where freezing water is a major problem, because they like the fresh air.
What this means is that when the spot price of gold fell below the cost of production, miners will simply shout down their most marginal facilities, drying up supply. That has recently been happening on a large scale.
Barrick Gold, a client of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, can still operate as older mines carry costs that go all the way down to $600 an ounce.
No one is going to want to supply the sparkly stuff at a loss. That should prevent gold from falling dramatically.
I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs whom passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD).
They claim the move in the yellow metal we are seeing now is only the beginning of a 30-fold rise in prices similar to what we saw from 1972 to 1979 when it leaped from $32 to $950.
So when the chart below popped up in my inbox showing the gold backing of the US monetary base, I felt obligated to pass it on to you to illustrate one of the intellectual arguments these people are using.
To match the gain seen since the 1936 monetary value peak of $35 an ounce, when the money supply was collapsing during the Great Depression, and the double top in 1979 when gold futures first tickled $950, this precious metal has to increase in value by 800% from the recent $1,050 low. That would take our barbarous relic friend up to $8,400 an ounce.
To match the move from the $35/ounce, 1972 low to the $950/ounce, 1979 top in absolute dollar terms, we need to see another 27.14 times move to $28,497/ounce.
Have I gotten you interested yet?
I am long term bullish on gold, other precious metals, and virtually all commodities for that matter. But I am not that bullish. These figures make my own $2,300/ounce long-term prediction positively wimp-like by comparison.
The seven-year spike up in prices we saw in the seventies, which found me in a very long line in Johannesburg, South Africa to unload my own krugerands in 1979, was triggered by a number of one-off events that will never be repeated.
Some 40 years of unrequited demand was unleashed when Richard Nixon took the US off the gold standard and decriminalized private ownership in 1972. Inflation then peaked around 20%. Newly enriched sellers of oil had a strong historical affinity with gold.
South Africa, the world's largest gold producer, was then a boycotted international pariah and teetering on the edge of disaster. We are nowhere near the same geopolitical neighborhood today, and hence, my more subdued forecast.
But then again, I could be wrong.
In the end, gold may have to wait for a return of inflation to resume its push to new highs. The previous bear market in gold lasted 18 years, from 1980 to 1998, so don't hold your breath.
What should we look for? The surprise that your friends get out of the blue pay increase, the largest component of the inflation calculation.
This is happening now in technology, but nowhere else. When I visit open houses in my neighborhood in San Francisco, half the visitors are thirtysomethings wearing hoodies offering to pay cash.
It could be a long wait for real inflation, possibly into the mid-2020s, when shocking wage hikes spread elsewhere.
You may have noticed that I have been playing gold from the long side virtually every month since it bottomed in January. I'll be back in there again given a good low risk, high return entry point.
You'll be the first to know when that happens.
As for the many investment advisor readers who have stayed long gold all along to hedge their clients' other risk assets, good for you.
You're finally learning!
Global Market Comments
February 20, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
When I toured Australia a couple of years ago, I couldn't help but notice a surprising number of fresh-faced young people driving luxury Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Porsches.
I remarked to my Aussie friend that there must be a lot of indulgent parents in The Lucky Country these days. "It's not the parents who are buying these cars," he remarked, "It's the kids."
He went on to explain that the mining boom had driven wages for skilled labor to spectacular levels. Workers in their early twenties could earn as much as $200,000 a year with generous benefits.
The big resource companies flew them by private jet a thousand miles to remote locations where they toiled at four-week on, four-week off schedules.
This was creating social problems, as it is tough for parents to manage offspring who make more than they do.
It's starting to look like we are on the eve of another great commodity boom, the start of a long-term super cycle. China, the world's largest consumer of commodities, is currently stimulating its economy on multiple fronts, including generous corporate tax breaks and relaxed reserve requirements. Get a trigger like a settlement of its trade war with the US and it will be off to the races once more for the entire sector.
The last bear market in commodities was certainly punishing. From the 2011 peaks, copper (COPX) shed 65%, gold (GLD) gave back 47%, and iron ore was cut by 78%. One research house estimated that some $150 billion in resource projects in Australia were suspended or canceled.
Budgeted capital spending during 2012-2015 was slashed by a blood curdling 30%. Contract negotiations for price breaks demanded by end consumers broke out like a bad case of chicken pox.
The shellacking was reflected in the major producer shares, like BHP Billiton (BHP), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and Rio Tinto (RIO), with prices down by half or more. Write-downs of asset values became epidemic at many of these firms.
The selloff was especially punishing for the gold miners, with lead firm Barrack Gold (GOLD) seeing its stock down by nearly 80% at one point, lower than the darkest days of the 2008-9 stock market crash.
With both prices and volumes in a race to the bottom, the effect on profits was especially traumatic. Highly leveraged, smaller, undercapitalized firms have filed for bankruptcy in droves, such as the Western Australia-based Allmine Group (see http://www.allminegroup.com), a service provider.
You also saw the bloodshed in the currencies of commodity-producing countries. The Australian dollar led the retreat, falling 30%. The South African Rand has also taken it on the nose, off 30%. In Canada, the Loonie got cooked.
The impact of China cannot be underestimated. In 2012, it consumed 11.7% of the planet's oil, 40% of its copper, 46% of its iron ore, 46% of its aluminum, and 50% of its coal. It is much smaller than that today, with its annual growth rate dropping by more than half, from 13.7% to 6.6%.
The rise of emerging market standard of living will also provide a boost to hard asset prices. But as China goes, so does its satellite trading partners, who rely on the Middle Kingdom as their largest customer. Many major commodity exporters themselves, like Chile (ECH), Brazil (EWZ), and Indonesia (IDX), are looking to come back big time.
As a result, western hedge funds are currently moving money out of paper assets, like stocks and bonds, into hard ones, such as gold, silver (SIL), palladium (PALL), platinum (PPLT), and copper. A massive US stock market rally has sent managers in search of any investment that can't be created with a printing press. Look at the best performing sectors this year and they are dominated by the commodity space.
The bulls may be right for as long as a decade, thanks to the cruel arithmetic of the commodities cycle. These are your classic textbook inelastic markets. Mines often take 10-15 years to progress from conception to production. Deposits need to be mapped, plans drafted, permits obtained, infrastructure built, capital raised, and bribes paid. By the time they come on line, prices have peaked, drowning investors in red ink.
So a 1% rise in demand can trigger a price rise of 50% or more. There are not a lot of substitutes for iron ore. Hedge funds then throw gasoline on the fire with excess leverage and high-frequency trading. That gives us higher highs to be followed by lower lows.
I am old enough to have lived through a couple of these cycles now, so it is all old news for me. The previous bull legs of super cycles ran from 1870-1913 and 1945-1973. The current one started for the whole range of commodities in 2016. Before that, it was down from seven years.
While the present one is short in terms of years, no one can deny how business cycles have been greatly accelerated by globalization and the Internet.
Some new factors are weighing on miners that didn't plague them in the past. Reregulation of the US banking system is forcing several large players, like JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) to pull out of the industry. That impairs trading liquidity and widens spreads— developments that can only accelerate upside price moves.
The prospect of flat US interest rates is also attracting capital. That reduces the opportunity cost of staying in raw metals, which pay neither interest nor dividends.
The future is bright for the resource industry. While the gains in Chinese demand are smaller than they have been in the past, they are off of a much larger base. In 20 years, Chinese GDP has soared from $1 trillion to $10 trillion.
Some 20 million people a year are still moving from the countryside to the coastal cities in search of a better standard of living and improved prospects for their children.
That is the good news. The bad news is that it looks like the headaches of Australian parents of juvenile high earners may persist for a lot longer than they wish.
Global Market Comments
May 24, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
When the Trade Alerts quit working. I stop sending them out. That?s my trading strategy right now. It?s as simple as that.
So when I received a dozen emails this morning asking if it is time to double up on Linn Energy (LINE), I shot back ?Not yet!? There is no point until oil puts in a convincing bottom, and that may be 2015 business.
Traders have been watching in complete awe the rapid decent the price of Linn Energy, which is emerging as the most despised asset of 2014, after commodity producer Russia (RSX).
But it is becoming increasingly apparent that the collapse of prices for the many commodities is part of a much larger, longer-term macro trend.
(LINN) is doing the best impersonation of a company going chapter 11 I have ever seen, without actually going through with it. Only last Thursday, it paid out a dividend, which at today?s low, works out to a mind numbing 30% yield.
I tried calling the company, but they aren?t picking up, as they are inundated with inquires from investors. Search the Internet, and you find absolutely nothing. What you do find are the following reasons not to buy Linn Energy today:
1) Falling oil revenue is causing Venezuela to go bankrupt.
2) Large layoffs have started in the US oil industry.
3) The Houston real estate industry has gone zero bid.
4) Midwestern banks are either calling in oil patch loans, or not renewing them.
5) Hedge Funds have gone catatonic, their hands tied until new investor funds come in during the New Year.
6) Every oil storage facility in the world is now filled to the brim, including many of the largest tankers.
Let me tell you how insanely cheap (LINN) has gotten. In 2009, when the financial system was imploding and the global economy was thought to be entering a prolonged Great Depression, oil dropped to $30, and (LINN) to $7.50. Today, the US economy is booming, interest rates are scraping the bottom, employment is at an eight year high, and (LINE) hit $9.70, down $70 in six months.
Go figure.
My colleague, Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, says this could all end on Thursday, when the front month oil futures contract expires. It could.
It isn?t just the oil that is hurting. So are the rest of the precious and semi precious metals (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL), base metals (CU), (BHP), oil (USO), and food (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA).
Many senior hedge fund managers are now implementing strategies assuming that the commodity super cycle, which ran like a horse with the bit between its teeth for ten years, is over, done, and kaput.
Former George Soros partner, hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones, has been leading the intellectual charge since last year for this concept. Many major funds have joined him.
Launching at the end of 2001, when gold, silver, copper, iron ore, and other base metals, hit bottom after a 21 year bear market, it is looking like the sector reached a multi decade peak in 2011.
Commodities have long been a leading source of profits for investors of every persuasion. During the 1970?s, when president Richard Nixon took the US off of the gold standard and inflation soared into double digits, commodities were everybody?s best friend. Then, Federal Reserve governor, Paul Volker, killed them off en masse by raising the federal funds rate up to a nosebleed 18.5%.
Commodities died a long slow and painful death. I joined Morgan Stanley about that time with the mandate to build an international equities business from scratch. In those days, the most commonly traded foreign securities were gold stocks. For years, I watched long-suffering clients buy every dip until they no longer ceased to exist.
The managing director responsible for covering the copper industry was steadily moved to ever smaller offices, first near the elevators, then the men?s room, and finally out of the building completely. He retired early when the industry consolidated into just two companies, and there was no one left to cover. It was heartbreaking to watch. Warning: we could be in for a repeat.
After two decades of downsizing, rationalization, and bankruptcies, the supply of most commodities shrank to a shadow of its former self by 2000. Then, China suddenly showed up as a voracious consumer of everything. It was off to the races, and hedge fund managers were sent scurrying to look up long forgotten ticker symbols and futures contracts.
By then commodities promoters, especially the gold bugs, had become a pretty scruffy lot. They would show up at conferences with dirt under their fingernails, wearing threadbare shirts and suits that looked like they came from the Salvation Army. As prices steadily rose, the Brioni suits started making appearances, followed by Turnbull & Asser shirts and Gucci loafers.
There was a crucial aspect of the bull case for commodities that made it particularly compelling. While you can simply create more stocks and bonds by running a printing press, or these days, creating digital entries on excel spreadsheets, that is definitely not the case with commodities. To discover deposits, raise the capital, get permits and licenses, pay the bribes, build the infrastructure, and dig the mines and pits for most commodities, takes 5-15 years.
So while demand may soar, supply comes on at a snail pace. Because these markets were so illiquid, a 1% rise in demand would easily crease price hikes of 50%, 100%, and more. That is exactly what happened. Gold soared from $250 to $1,922. This is what a hedge fund manager will tell us is the perfect asymmetric trade. Silver rocketed from $2 to $50. Copper leapt from 80 cents a pound to $4.50. Everyone instantly became commodities experts. An underweight position in the sector left most managers in the dust.
Some 14 years later and now what are we seeing? Many of the gigantic projects that started showing up on drawing boards in 2001 are coming on stream. In the meantime, slowing economic growth in China means their appetite has become less than endless.
Supply and demand fell out of balance. The infinitesimal change in demand that delivered red-hot price gains in the 2000?s is now producing equally impressive price declines. And therein lies the problem. Click here for my piece on the mothballing of brand new Australian iron ore projects, ?BHP Cuts Bode Ill for the Global Economy?.
But this time it may be different. In my discussions with the senior Chinese leadership over the years, there has been one recurring theme. They would love to have America?s service economy.
I always tell them that they have a real beef with their ancient ancestors. When they migrated out of Africa 50,000 years ago, they stopped moving the people exactly where the natural resources aren?t. If they had only continued a little farther across the Bering Straights to North America, they would be drowning in resources, as we are in the US.
By upgrading their economy from a manufacturing, to a services based economy, the Chinese will substantially change the makeup of their GDP growth. Added value will come in the form of intellectual capital, which creates patents, trademarks, copyrights, and brands. The raw material is brainpower, which China already has plenty of.
There will no longer be any need to import massive amounts of commodities from abroad. If I am right, this would explain why prices for many commodities have fallen further that a Middle Kingdom economy growing at a 7.5% annual rate would suggest. This is the heart of the argument that the commodities super cycle is over.
If so, the implications for global assets prices are huge. It is great news for equities, especially for big commod
ity importing countries like the US, Japan, and Europe. This may be why we are seeing such straight line, one way moves up in global equity markets this year.
It is very bad news for commodity exporting countries, like Australia, South America, and the Middle East. This is why a large short position in the Australian dollar is a core position in Tudor-Jones? portfolio. Take a look at the chart for Aussie against the US dollar (FXA) since 2013, and it looks like it has come down with a severe case of Montezuma?s revenge.
The Aussie could hit 80 cents, and eventually 75 cents to the greenback before the crying ends. Australians better pay for their foreign vacations fast before prices go through the roof. It also explains why the route has carried on across such a broad, seemingly unconnected range of commodities.
In the end, my friend at Morgan Stanley had the last laugh.
When the commodity super cycle began, there was almost no one around still working who knew the industry as he did. He was hired by a big hedge fund and earned a $25 million performance bonus in the first year out. And he ended up with the biggest damn office in the whole company, a corner one with a spectacular view of midtown Manhattan.
He is now retired for good, working on his short game at Pebble Beach.
Good for you, John.

subset: commoncrawl


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Benefits of Hiring the Best Lawn Care Services
Achieving a good looking lawn is the dream of every individual. The care given to lawn s should be of high quality to achieve the desired results. A lawn is regularly mowed to maintain the desired height of the grass. In other scenarios lawns may be used for grazing of livestock like cows, sheep and goats. When the grass mixed up, it should be planted in patches of uniformity or creating a certain pattern. One may be forced to look for lawn care services.
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Del Rio - Mar 2014
Mar 18, 2014
|This is the last stop of what we are calling our Rio Grande Valley adventure. There are two state parks to explore, but we were not sure if we could or should stay at either one of them.
So we decided to stay at the Elks Lodge in Del Rio and do day trips. The Elks Lodge is not a destination spot. The lodge sits on a very large piece of flat land that is the size of about 3 or 4 school baseball fields without the grass. There are are 10 water and electric posts. At $10 a day, it fit the bill. We were not planning on spending much time in the coach. The folks here were very nice and invited us to a rally that was being held on the weekend.
The first thing we did once we got parked was to wash the coach and the car. The last two moves were in the rain. This part of the Rio Grande has a lot of mining and gravel pits. This leaves the roads with a sticky, sandy mud that is thick and so dirty. The car is grey and you could not tell what color it was or where the windshield was located. What a mess! You gotta understand that JC would rather pay to have the rig washed, but this was so bad we had to do it ourselves. LOL. A couple of days later we were at the emergency room because JC had overextended his right shoulder. It hurt him something awful. They gave him a pain killing shot. It was like a miracle JC said. He was back to himself within a few days.
The first day trip was to see Seminole Canyon State Park a little northwest of Del Rio. The interest here are the indian dwellings along a now dry river and the pictographs. The campground was very busy. A place to revisit someday. Just a note, all hiking in this park must be accompanied by park personnel. Check ahead for schedules.
While exploring Del Rio, we found the Whitehead Museum right in town. The museum has 9 buildings with all sorts of artifacts of the old west. Well worth a visit.
The second state park is Kickapoo Caverns State park located southeast of Del Rio. Although these caverns are no longer living, it was one of the most interesting cavern tours we have done. There was a guy in the lobby that told his wife he did not want to see the caverns because they were dead. BIG mistake fella! This cavern is not all adorned with fancy lights that go on and off as you walk along a smooth path through the cavern. Each visitor must have 2 light sources and wear a helmet 'cause it is DARK! The hike through the cavern is a bit strenuous because you are literally crawling over rocks. Quite the experience. If you have any breathing problems though, think twice about going. There is dust debris floating in the air. The further we got into the cave, the heavier it became. I have a mild dust allergy and had to stop going deeper, much to my disappointment. I would do it again, but with my allergy med. Just a note, tours are given on Saturday only except during spring break. A reservation is needed.


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And hoping instead of everyone asking a ton of questions they will be able to just look in here and find the info they need.
Anything to do with map gen files I will have to leave to someone else to fill in the info cause I really don't understand that stuff.
But being probably the most edited file in the whole game being the actions.xml file thought it would be a nice place to start.
So we are just going to make our own little action.
Any action you code into towns will be inside 2 sets of these tags.
- Code: Select all
The first set is to tell "Towns" that everything inside the file is a action.
The second set are the actions the Townies will perform, such as chopping a tree or harvesting wheat.
So now lets begin, at the bottom of the actions.xml file just above the last line
- Code: Select all
Put in
- Code: Select all
Within those will be our action to create a wooden chair. Now don't ask why a chair, but you will be making a chair for this tutorial.
Without your action tags we will need a ID for this action.
A ID of a action is the name of the action sorta.
So for the ID you can put anything you want really, but to keep it all simple right now we will call it "qchair0"
Where you place the ID is between ID tags
- Code: Select all
Now for the name the player (You) will see in game while playing. Yes the ID is not the name you will see in game but what the game reads to find out how to perform a action.
So once again being simple "Chair" will do. The tags for a name are simple enough.
- Code: Select all
<name esES="">Name</chair>
Now some may look and see this
what goes in those quotes are the spanish word for the name.
For Chop it is Talar.
As for chair I have no idea, but I'm sure someone will tell me.
So here is what the action should look like so far.
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<name esES="Chair">Chair</name>
Now cause we are making a placed item we wont need this tag but I'll tell you how it is used anyways.
- Code: Select all
<generatedItem>Item ID</generatedItem>
Now if your item being created out of thin air. Alot of the time this tag is not needed. Morely fore actions like chopping down a tree, and stuff like that. (I could be wrong but I haven't had to use this tag that much)
The next tag basicly says how important the item is make.
- Code: Select all
There are 8 priorities in "Towns" unless modded.
Those priorities are
foodmaking = anything baking or cooking related
gatheringharvesting = Anything like gathering and harvesting crops
_MINEDIG_ = Mining and Digging
terrainchange = Tilling ground or chopping trees
itemconstruction = the creation of items (most stuff falls under this)
wallconstruction = the creation of walls
butcheringkilling = butchering animals for meat or bones
_HAUL_ = hauling items to a container or a stockpile
We are creating a item so our priority ID is itemconstruction which will go between our priority tags
Now to get to the fun part of the actions. How they are made.
Everything from here on will be wrapped in these tags here
- Code: Select all
So first we need our townies to pick up some wood to start the crafting process.
Any items that are needed go in these tags here.
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now the item ID for wood is rmwood rm = raw material.
and in order to craft the chair he is going to need a place to craft it so we are going to need the move tag
- Code: Select all
so we will need to put carpentrybench between the move tags.
I haven't fully figured out this next part on how the timing works.
So how long does it take to craft our chair?
Well we get to edit the length ourselves in the wait tags
- Code: Select all
I would put it around 20
Before we can either make the item take more resources and time we have to destroy the item the townie is holding. The tag is easy enough to use, no ID or anything just one tag.
- Code: Select all
<destroyItem />
This will destroy the wood the townie is holding and allow me to continue on without the wood.
You can repeat the process of Pick/Move/Wait/Destroy as many times as you wish. When you are finally happy with the action it is time to create the chair!
- Code: Select all
Whatever item is put in those tags will be placed in the townies hands for them to place in the location the player wanted it placed, or the townie will just toss the item on the ground till its hauling priority comes up.
So here is what your action should look like
- Code: Select all
<name esES="Chair">Chair</name>
<destroyItem />
Okay sad part is, that we aren't done yet cause you still need to be able to access that action in game.
So now we are going to need the menu_right.xml file for this part
Just to get this to work quickly we are going to put this in the first window of the right menu.
- Code: Select all
<item code="QUEUEANDPLACE" parameter="qcarpentrybench" />
The chair is a item that has a placement selected by the player hence the
- Code: Select all
Now where it says
- Code: Select all
we need to change that parameter to our action ID which is qchair0
so the top of the menu_right.xml file should end up looking something like this.
- Code: Select all
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<item code="QUEUEANDPLACE" parameter="qchair0" />
Now you just have to save both files and load up towns.
NO graphic changes or no graphic needed cause we used a already coded in item for this tutorial.
Once in game you should be able to open the right menu and your wood chair should be at the top left corner of the menu.
Hope you enjoyed this small tutorial on actions.
If I get the chance I will make a second one on some of the tags I skipped in this one to keep this tutorial simple.


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From Aware Theory
Insiconstruction is the concept that deals with the construction of insidentireplicas. For instance, how they are and can be produced. Knowledge about how to construct a insidentireplica is called epinsiconstruction.
The major different kinds of Itoconstruction are Oriconstruction, Idoconstruction, Coriconstruction, Citoconstruction, Vitoconstruction, Fitoconstruction, Enhaconstruction, Isoconstruction, Musconstruction, Insiconstruction, Tritoconstruction, and Simiconstruction.


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Capgemini buys foothold in ChinaBleum, Capgemini, China, VanceInfo
After gaining access to the massive Brazilian market through the acquisition of CPM Braxis last year, Capgemini has put its roots down in...
Can the UK preclude China for offshore IT services?Bleum, China, Reuters, VanceInfo
The government needs to cut its costs and IT is one area where it can do this without compromising services. In theory that is.
The government has made it clear that it wants offshore companies to bid for government work. The coalition government has already been cosying up with India....
How to cut software defects to 0.012 per thousand lines of code with software Big BrotherBleum, China, Governance, Hydra, Offshoring, Software development
I was with Chinese offshore software company Bleum last week. The company was updating me on its recent entry into...
Is China a serious alternative to India for software development?Bleum, Offshoring, Software development, VanceInfo
I met up with Bleum today. This is a software services company that provides all of its services from China.
I first met Bleum in May when it was embarking on its first steps into the UK market. It had previously had customers in the US, including...
Chinese IT services providers can be a gateway to Chinese economy for big businessBleum, China, VanceInfo
Multinationals that want to build business in China can increase their opportunities if they sign outsourcing contracts with China based suppliers.
This is the view of a China based IT services firm I met today.
Could China be about to reduce India's offshore IT dominance?Bleum, China, India, Software development
China offers a deep pool of IT talent. This talent is available at relatively low cost. Some would say very low cost.
I am trying to keep up to date with what's available in China and news of another official UK office for a Chinese service provider is worth a post.
It is...
Could China's offshore cost advantage become a handicap?Bleum, China, Offshoring
I recently met a company that provides offshore IT services from China, known as Bleum. The company was clear to me that one of the big advantages of China is the fact...
Does China offshoring need a Western Hand?Bleum, China, Offshoring
Do Chinese IT suppliers need to be managed from the West to make it big in global offshoring?
Following my meeting with Nigel Grieve of Bleum, I though I would ask...
China needs a Y2K to overtake IndiaBleum, China, Offshoring
I met with Bleum today. This is a software development firm that is based in China. It is US owned and managed and boasts Walmart as a customer.
I was with its UK director Nigel Grieve today and we had an interesting conversation.


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Our family recently moseyed down a dimly lit trail, cradling warm beverages, surrounded by over 5,000 intricately carved pumpkins at the Minnesota Zoo's 2nd Annual Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular. The 1/4 mile trail of glowing pumpkins features dizzying details and creatively carved designs. The Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular runs through November 3rd. Tickets are sold online for specific entry times. I suggest purchasing in advance as times will sell out. We arrived about 45 prior to our ticketed time allowing a few minutes to use the restrooms, grab a warm beverage (they come with or without Schnapps, you decide) and play a quick game of pumpkin tic-tac-toe. The zoo's Central Plaza also has various snacks for purchase, a small straw maze and pumpkin bowling and bean bags.
The queue to the trail may look lengthy, but moves quickly and once to the trailhead people fan out for a more comfortable meander through the display. The 2019 theme is Around the World and features scenes from across the globe, each set to music. The pathways and even trees were decorated with carved creations, no duplicates. The Asian scene featured a pagoda, the English scene a castle and a Leaning Tower of Pisa accompanied the Italian scene.
We spent about 40 minutes on the trail. Along the way each of us pointing out details not to be missed or questioning how carvers were able to put such precise detail on a pumpkin. The Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular runs for 33 nights and carvers will create around 20,000 pumpkins during that time, swapping out wilting designs for fresh illuminated faces throughout the event. The video below from the Travel Channel gives a behind the scenes glimpse into how a similar trail was constructed.
Come prepared to wait and to walk. The Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular is along the zoo's Northern Trail, which is a 10 minute walk from the main entrance. The pumpkin trail is another 1/4 mile. Wheelchairs/strollers/wagons are a must have if your group includes young ones or those with difficulty walking. We went on a weeknight when crowds were fewer and lines were shorter. Organizers say that on weekends, guests can expect to wait up to 2 hours in line. Yikes. This is probably why they serve those beverages mentioned above. The Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular was a great experience for our family. Our boys loved the displays and the morning after their faces are still lit up.


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Paragliding in Nepal
Trip Overview
Paragliding in Nepal is truly a wonderful and adventurous experience. Penetrating through the blue sky and watching the picturesque landscape down below offers you astounding world class feeling. A lot of sites inside the country run paragliding. But, among all, Sarangkot in Pokhara is the most popular and suitable one. This thrilling experience completely satisfies adventure seekers.
Watch the gratifying atmosphere as you get into Pokhara; a paradise for tourists. You may take a sunburn at the banks of Phewa Lake and enjoy the mesmerizing views. Or, you can also perform some boating skills on the lake where the great Mount Machapuchhre carves its shadow.
Eagles and kites get amazed as they see you gliding over the blue sky. Attached to the glider along with a pilot, you have nothing to worry about. So, we recommend you leave the safety issues to the expert and only enjoy the beautiful nature. This extra-ordinary act can be performed especially on a spare day that usually remains unused
Offering these kinds of experiences, Pokhara is now becoming the most chosen tourism spot in the country. The best time to paraglide is during November and December.
Day 1: Day 01 : Flight or drive from Kathmandu to Pokhara
Day 2: Day 02 : Hike to Sarangkot
Day 3: Day 01 : Paragliding in Pokhara
Day 4: Day 04 : Sightseeing tour in Pokhara.
Day 5: Day 05 : Drive or fly back to Kathmandu
Detail Itinerary
Day 01 : Flight or drive from Kathmandu to Pokhara
Flight or drive from Kathmandu to Pokhara. Transfer to a hotel and stay overnight
Day 02 : Hike to Sarangkot
Hike from Hotel to Sarangkot [1,590m]. Hotel overnight
Day 01 : Paragliding in Pokhara
you will be pickup from the hotel to sarangkot and paragliding at pokhara city and they will drive back to you at your hotel.Paragliding Day.
Day 04 : Sightseeing tour in Pokhara.
Full day sightseeing tour in Pokhara. Hotel overnight
Day 05 : Drive or fly back to Kathmandu
Drive or fly back to Kathmandu. Final departure
Cost Details
- All Vehicle Services As Per Itinerary
- Hotel Accommodation In Kathmandu
- Food, Lodging, Insurance And Other Expenses Of Staffs
- Food; Breakfast, Lunch And Dinner [As Per Itinerary] And Lodging Of Clients
- Bungee Jumping Paper Works And Permits
- All Necessary Staffs With Experienced English Speaking Guide
- Medical Supplies [First Aid Medical Kit Will Be Available]
Quick Facts
Duration: 1 day
Trip Grade: Moderate
Destination: Nepal, Asia
Group Size: Minimum 1 - Maximum as much as
Arrival On: pokhara
Departure From: pokhara hotel
Why travel with us?
- Every trip itinerary is managed by local experts
- Flexible dates & competitive price
- 24*7 support & assistance
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The EtherCAT I/O plug-in modules are based electronically on the well-known EtherCAT Terminals, and they provide the same broad variety of signals, including functional safety (TwinSAFE). Their electromechanical design enables them to be plugged directly into an application-specific signal distribution board. This routing board distributes signals and power supply to machine modules via prefabricated cables with application-specific plug connectors. The main advantage of the signal distribution board is the highly automated production process, from the manufacture of the circuit board and its assembly through to the inspection. All connector interfaces can be placed on the circuit board according to customer specifications. The connector level, which is matched to the application, considerably optimises the wiring procedure, for example with the use of prefabricated cables and coded plug connectors.


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Truckee Community Christmas gears for giving season
TRUCKEE, Calif. — Once again, the Truckee Community Christmas nonprofit organization is opening its heart to help community members in need during the coming holiday season.
Many generous locals will be donating their time to collect and distribute food, toys, and warm coats to help neighbors in the community.
This remarkable program is expected to benefit approximately 215 families, 25 teenage moms and their babies, 60 low-income seniors and 70 homebound seniors.
Truckee Community Christmas offers a range of ways that caring community members can step up to help:
Food collection barrels will be placed in local grocery stores (Safeway, Save Mart, and New Moon) on the Saturday after Thanksgiving for donations of non-perishable food items.
New, unwrapped toys may be placed in collection bins at banks, real estate offices, schools, homeowners' association clubhouses, and businesses around town.
Warm, clean, gently used winter coats may be dropped off at Church of the Mountains in downtown Truckee.
Donors can also provide necessities for our area seniors, whose wishes are often easy to fulfill and whose gratitude is always abundant.
In addition to donations of goods and services, Truckee Community Christmas needs help sorting, packing, and wrapping donated items at the Sierra Mountain Community Education Center on Donner Pass Road on Dec. 17 and 18.
If you would prefer to simply write a check to help with the effort, tax-deductible contributions can be mailed to Truckee Community Christmas, P.O. Box 2955, Truckee, CA 96160.
Visit TruckeeCommunityChristmas.com or call 530-587-2757 to learn more.


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Christianity Lite vs. Terri Schiavo By BOB BURNETT Special to the Planet By BOB BURNETT
American culture is driven by consumerism. As a result, from time to time our favorite brands get new packaging: the Coca-Cola can features a new paint job; the New York Times gets a facelift; Cadillac introduces an SUV. This process has even affected that venerable institution, Christianity.
Over the past two decades a new form of the religion of Jesus has made its presence known in the marketplace: Christianity Lite. This is a watered-down version of America's favorite religion specially packaged for today's narcissistic consumer. It's Jerry Springer's introduction to the teachings of Jesus complete with talk-show preachers, rock 'n' roll hymns, and saccharine homilies for every occasion. Stripped of the ethical framework laid down by Jesus, devoid of the hard personal work that leads to deep religious devotion, this decaffeinated version of Christian doctrine picks and chooses from the Old and New Testament to support its positions; thus, capital punishment is good, while euthanasia is bad. In the place of personal revelation it offers rote memorization; rather than serious ethical discussion, it substitutes sensationalism. A sad example of this process is the Terri Schiavo case, which Christianity Lite has made its cause célèbre and, thereby, turned a family tragedy into a media festival.
The struggle over the right of Schiavo to die in dignity illustrates the three weaknesses in Christianity Lite, the problems that arise when erstwhile Christians are relentlessly fed a diet of pop theology. The first weakness is that this updated version of the teachings of Jesus focuses almost exclusively on the endpoints of the continuum of life. Christianity Lite is obsessed with the subject of abortion, demanding that any fetus be carried to term, regardless of the surrounding circumstances: whether the mother was raped or her life placed in peril by the pregnancy. Once the baby is born, Christianity Lite abruptly loses interest; it cannot be bothered with issues such as the desperate lives of children born into poverty or those who are subjected to physical or psychological abuse.
At the other end of the spectrum of life, Christianity Lite is fixated on euthanasia. In the process, it ignores the many problems of our aging population: their lack of access to adequate housing and medical care, the reality that many nursing homes and residences for the elderly are dreadful. In essence, Christianity Lite believes that it is acceptable for an octogenarian to live a lonely, marginal existence; it becomes interested only if she should be beset with painful, terminal cancer and wish to end her life.
Jesus, however, focused on the full range of human life and preached a message of compassion that extends to all of us. In the Sermon on the Mount, and other teachings, he exhorted his followers to care for the poor, the helpless, the scapegoated, and the outcast.
The second weakness evident in Christianity Lite's handling of the Schiavo case is that it ignores the history of the Christian church. Freedom of religion is a relatively new phenomenon in Western History. It dates from a proclamation in 1689 by England's King William and Queen Mary. Even in modern times, freedom of religion has been an issue in the European Community; for example, many religious practices were banned in Nazi Germany (and the cross was replaced by the swastika.) Because of this difficult history, mainstream Christianity has typically kept government at arms length—welcomed the separation between Church and State. Christianity Lite, on the other hand, has formed an unholy alliance with self-serving factions within the Republican Party and seems all too willing to transform what have been theological questions into judicial ones. But no system of jurisprudence can determine when life begins or ends; these are questions that are spiritual, not secular. Forcing their deliberation in the court system weakens the separation between church and state that has been such a vital component of American democracy. This new form of Christianity asks the state to determine who lives and who dies, who can be married, and what texts our children read at school. One can only imagine what is next on their agenda: probably strict censorship of the media.
Finally, the third weakness of Christianity Lite is its willingness to make public what historically have been deeply personal matters: whom we choose to marry, whether to carry a damaged fetus to term, or how to attend to a loved one trapped in a painful slide to death. This assault on the right of privacy is consistent with a subculture that has developed a pathological love for public confession, particularly if it is in front of a national television audience.
The decline of Terri Schiavo is a tragedy, but it is a personal, family drama that involves only her husband, Michael, and her parents. With its insistence on sensationalizing this sad affair, Christianity Lite reveals it dark attraction to religious voyeurism. In doing so it betrays the most elemental teaching of Jesus, his admonition that we treat others as we wish to be treated ourselves.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley activist, writer, and Quaker. He can be reached at email@example.com.


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Courtesy Stuart Morrison – PR Manager, A1 Team Canada
Sentul, Indonesia (February 07, 2006) – The A1 Grand Prix of Nations heads to Indonesia this weekend, 10-12th February, for Round 8 of the inaugural 'World Cup of Motorsport' hosted at the Sentul International Circuit.
A1 Team Canada racer Sean McIntosh arrived today along with the rest of the Canadian team to acclimatize to the heat and humidity having experienced similar conditions at the Malaysian A1GP event last November. A1 Team Canada heads into this weekend's Indonesian round looking to steer clear of the incidents and accidents that denied them back-to-back top-ten finishes, and the resulting points haul, in South Africa last time out.
A slow puncture robbed Sean McIntosh of a potential top-eight finish in the Sprint race before he fought to salvage a point with a tenth place finish in the Feature despite an unscheduled trip to the pits for a new nosecone and a broken steering column in the dying stages of the race. The 20-year-old's efforts in Durban kept A1 Team Canada in the top-ten in the Nations Standings with four rounds remaining. While South Africa hosted A1GP's first street race, this weekend's action returns to a permanent road course, the 3.96km, 11-turn Sentul International Circuit in West Java, 45- minutes from Indonesia's capital city Jakarta.
As the first major international open-wheel series to visit since its construction in 1994, a large turnout is expected over the weekend with the home crowd undoubtedly vocal in their support of A1 Team Indonesia's Ananda Mikola. Indonesia marks Sean McIntosh's eighth straight A1GP start for A1 Team Canada. The Vancouver native is set to hand over steering duties to five-time Champ Car winner Patrick Carpentier from Joliette, Québec for Rounds 9 and 10 in Mexico (24-26 February) and the USA (10-12 March).
Preparing to race on another unfamiliar circuit McIntosh commented: "I'm looking forward to getting to Sentul and learning the track. I've studied the layout but I'm keen to get there to evaluate it for myself. I'm hopeful it will suit my style but there's always that element of the unknown heading into Friday's practice sessions. The conditions will be similar to what we experienced in Malaysia with the heat and the humidity. I've been informed there's a monsoon just about every day at Noon so it could add a bit of spice to the qualifying sessions and Sunday's races. It's my last time racing for A1 Team Canada before Patrick takes over for a couple of events so I'm hoping for another strong showing. We're all working hard to improve our position and we want to be winning races!"
Sunday's A1GP races can be viewed live or on demand in Canada on www.a1gp.com.


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