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Adenylosuccinate Lyase Deficiency
National Organization for Rare Disorders, Inc.
It is possible that the main title of the report Adenylosuccinate Lyase Deficiency is not the name you expected. Please check the synonyms listing to find the alternate name(s) and disorder subdivision(s) covered by this report.
General Discussion
Adenylosuccinate lyase deficiency (ASLD) is a rare, inherited metabolic disorder due to a lack of the enzyme adenylosuccinate lyase (ASL). The defect is characterized by the appearance of two unusual chemicals, succinylaminoimidazole carboxamide riboside (SAICA riboside) and succinyladenosine, in cerebrospinal fluid, in urine and, to a much smaller extent, in plasma. These compounds, which are never found in healthy individuals, are formed from the two natural compounds acted upon by the enzyme. The symptoms and the physical findings associated with ASLD vary greatly from case to case. As a rule, patients with ASLD present with a mix of neurological symptoms that usually will include some of the following: psychomotor retardation, autistic features, epilepsy, axial hypotonia with peripheral hypertonia, muscle wasting, and secondary feeding problems. Although abnormal physical features (dysmorphism) are not common, when they do occur they may include severe growth failure, small head circumference, brachycephaly, flat occiput, prominent metopic suture, intermittent divergent strabismus, small nose with anteverted nostrils, long and smooth philtrum, thin upper lip, and low set ears.
Adenylosuccinate lyase deficiency is categorized as a disorder of the manufacture of purine nucleotides from scratch (biosynthesis) in the body. Purine nucleotides play vital roles in the cells, particularly in the process of building up or breaking down complex body chemicals (intermediary metabolism) and in energy-transforming reactions. Moreover, they serve as building blocks of nucleic acids and thus participate in molecular mechanisms by which genetic information is stored. Just how the genetic and molecular mechanisms interact to generate the symptoms of ASLD is still debated.
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For a Complete Report
This is an abstract of a report from the National Organization for Rare Disorders (NORD). A copy of the complete report can be downloaded free from the NORD website for registered users. The complete report contains additional information including symptoms, causes, affected population, related disorders, standard and investigational therapies (if available), and references from medical literature. For a full-text version of this topic, go to www.rarediseases.org and click on Rare Disease Database under "Rare Disease Information".
The information provided in this report is not intended for diagnostic purposes. It is provided for informational purposes only. NORD recommends that affected individuals seek the advice or counsel of their own personal physicians.
It is possible that the title of this topic is not the name you selected. Please check the Synonyms listing to find the alternate name(s) and Disorder Subdivision(s) covered by this report
This disease entry is based upon medical information available through the date at the end of the topic. Since NORD's resources are limited, it is not possible to keep every entry in the Rare Disease Database completely current and accurate. Please check with the agencies listed in the Resources section for the most current information about this disorder.
For additional information and assistance about rare disorders, please contact the National Organization for Rare Disorders at P.O. Box 1968, Danbury, CT 06813-1968; phone (203) 744-0100; web site www.rarediseases.org or email email@example.com
Last Updated: 9/9/2010
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Ohio Congressman Steve Stivers (R) opened Ohio University's second Washington Policy Forum – "Cyber Security and National Defense" – at the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center on May 14.
Photographer: Chad Bartlett
Beth Brown, a 1987 alumna of the Russ College of Engineering and Technology, was one of more than 60 OHIO alumni who attended the Policy Forum on May 14. Brown is a civil engineer with the United States Air Force.
Photographer: Chad Bartlett
Sandra Stanar-Johnson (right), who earned her bachelor's degree in journalism from OHIO in 1977, was one of five panelists who participated in Forum. She is senior representative to the Department of Homeland Security at the National Security Agency.
Photographer: Chad Bartlett
May 20, 2013
By Amista Lipot
Just over 60 Ohio University alumni attended the Washington Policy Forum in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, May 14 at the Capitol Visitor Center. The event, focusing on cyber security and homeland defense, was the 2nd in a series aimed at reconnecting alumni in the nation's capital to Ohio University.
Congressman Steve Stivers (R-OH) opened the event by saying "I think [Cyber security] is one of our greatest threats on our country, our wealth, and our intellectual property. These attacks cost Americans between $200 and $400 billion dollars per year." He went on to mention he was looking forward to listening to what the panelists had to say.
Panel moderator Ray Locker, a 1984 Ohio graduate and White House & Politics Editor for USA Today, challenged the panelists to address cyber threats, increasing security against such threats, and the policy and legislation being created to protect against such threats.
Panelists included M. Peter Adler, a 1978 OHIO graduate, vice president of the Health and Cyber Security Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer and Government Affairs for SRA International, Inc.; Christopher Barnett, a 1994 alumnus and lead, Cyber Innovation and Solutions at General Dynamics Information Technology; John Gilliom, professor of political science and associate dean at Ohio University; Jimmy Goodrich, a 2007 alumnus and director of Global Policy at the Information Technology Industry Council; and Sandra Stanar-Johnson, a 1977 alumna and senior representative to the Department of Homeland Security at the National Security Agency.
The audience had questions including: what is desired in the cyber security industry? how do you encourage innovation while protecting security? and, how do you differentiate between various cyber attacks?
Doug Dziak, who earned degrees from OHIO in 1993 and 1995, attended the Policy Forum. "It was really great to see another successful Ohio University panel," said Dziak, counsel at Nixon Peabody, LLP. "There are so many accomplished Bobcats in this area. These panels provide a great forum to learn about the interesting things our people are doing, connect those activities with Ohio's Congressional delegation and provide a great networking opportunity for the DC alumni."
At a reception immediately following the panel, alumni networked with fellow Bobcats and University representatives, allowing them the opportunity to learn more about projects and research impacting policy in Ohio and at Ohio University.
The Washington Policy Forum was sponsored by Ohio University's College of Arts and Sciences, Scripps College of Communications and the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs.
The Forum is held three times a year. The next Forum will take place in conjunction with the Ohio University Federal Government Alumni Luncheon, which is scheduled for September 12, 2013.

subset: commoncrawl


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How much you enjoy Disney World's "Glow With the Show" presentations may depend on where you're located and who is standing in front of you.
"Glow" events feature new mouse-ear hats that are designed to illuminate in several colors and lighting sequences. When triggered, they creatively flash, strobe and fade in and out to the music. They were first incorporated into "Fantasmic!" at Disney's Hollywood Studios, followed by the "Celebrate the Magic" castle-projection show plus the "Wishes" and "HalloWishes" fireworks shows at Magic Kingdom.
At last weekend's debut for "Celebrate the Magic" and "Wishes," I got stuck in the crowd after the Main Street Electrical Parade and was unable to watch from my preferred spot (near Tinker Bell's dramatic descent from Cinderella Castle). My friend and I spotted a gathering of ear-hat wearers near Tomorrowland Terrace and stopped there instead.
It was a disappointing location. Ears in the distance, at the foot of the castle, were too tiny to appreciate. And the fancy hats nearby were not in sync with the "Celebrate the Magic" animation. We were too far from any of the park's triggers.
The best place to park yourself for these Magic Kingdom shows is in the circle around the statue of Walt Disney — commonly called "the hub" — and down Main Street. Otherwise, you can be out of range of the signals that tell the hats when to flash.
Midway through the castle-projection show, we maneuvered along the edge of Tomorrowland and back toward the hub. After a stern warning from two cast members about being in the walkway, we melded into the crowd and near a couple of families decked out in ear gear.
This is a no-brainer: The more light-up hats around you, the better the "Glow With the Show" plays. However, at $25 a pop, outfitting a family with special ears can be a steep investment, one that pretty much guarantees there won't be 100 percent audience participation.
Positioning matters, too. One cluster of ears was to our far left, which meant looking back and forth between them, the castle, the pyrotechnics and back again. I was distracted sometimes when all ears went dark. Um, are these things on?
But the lights-off stretches have a purpose. They shift attention back to the exploding skies.
I kept one eye on the ears and noted that the show designers resisted the temptation to make the hats color-coordinate with the base color of the castle lights or the featured character. There are plenty of special effects such as fizzling lights as the fireworks sizzle out, and strobing ears during fast-paced music.
I noticed even more of these when I watch online videos of the shows, where cameras were set up with a multitude of ears in the foreground.
"Glow With the Show" is easier to enjoy, I found, during "Fantasmic!" Its amphitheater setting spreads the lighting more evenly across the bleacher seating. For maximum effect, sit in one of the back rows or along the far edges of the stadium. The idea with all these "Glow" shows is to keep the ears between yourself and the action.
This will be more difficult in an upcoming application of the new ears: The Osborne Family Spectacle of Dancing Lights. I may have to steady myself during the "merry, merry, merry Christmas" strains of "Carol of the Bells." The ears will be in action when the Dancing Lights return to Hollywood Studios on Nov. 8.
email@example.com or 407-420-5477


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It has been only in the past three years in working intensively with women
that my eyes have been opened to the stark reality of sexual abuse. I have
heard woman after woman pour out her heart to me about the pain and suffering
they have experienced around being sexually threatened, molested, or violated.
Since it essential for me as a homeopathic doctor and counselor to throughly
understand each of my patients, I have elicited many shocking stories from my
patients. My continual response is one of sadness and amazement that such
gentle, loving women have had, for whatever reason, to experience such pain,
violence, disillusionment, and emotional suffering sometimes lasting a
I remember starting to cry when a particularly sensitive and gentle woman
me how her father would crawl into bed with her several times a week, fondle
breasts, and force her to have intercourse with him. He was drunk and
threatened to
hurt her even more if she ever told anyone about it. She was only four at the
beginning, had absolutely no idea what he was doing, whether it was wrong, or
how she was supposed to respond. So, she withdrew, turned herself on
"automatic" and left her body every time she was incested. It provided an
escape for six years but turning herself off sexually no longer worked now that
she was married and very much in love with her husband.
Another woman I saw recently was also forced to stroke her father's penis
repeatedly from the time she was ll to l7. She describes herself as rather
naive and emotionally immature. When she was l9 she went to work for a medical
doctor who, before he started seeing his patients, would tell her to get up on
the table every morning for "an exam". As unlikely as it seems, she did so for
a year. Because of her long history of incest, she still had no concept of
healthy sex. She now has a tremendous aversion to making love with her
I was recently invited to Winthrop, Washington and spoke to about 30 women
on PMS and menopause. One of the women who approached me after the talk to
make an appointment looked at me teary-eyed, said she couldn't really tell me
at that time what was going on, but thought at counseling appointment was what
she needed. When I saw her individually, she immediately started crying and
recounted to me her story of sexual abuse by her brother. She had a very happy
l0-year marriage and two children but never had the courage to tell her husband
about the incest because he and her brother were very close and she feared
their friendship would be destroyed once he knew what her brother had done. I
was the first person she had ever really told about it and she was greatly
relieved when I suggested that she did share it all with her husband. She had
wanted to tell him desperately and just needed some encouragement to do so.


text:
Where the Wild Things Are
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark
All Chiara Tripodi films
Movies.com, the ultimate source for everything movies, is your destination for new movie trailers, reviews, photos, times, tickets + more! Stay in the know with the latest movie news and cast interviews at Movies.com.
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Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Today, a substantial body of evidence exists from which various useful stylized facts have emerged. We update the data within the first week of each month.
Probability of U.S. Recession Charts
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues
Questions & Answers
|Q. What does the evidence say, in short?
A. The difference between long-term and short-term interest rates ("the slope of the yield curve" or "the term spread") has borne a consistent negative relationship with subsequent real economic activity in the United States, with a lead time of about four to six quarters. The measures of the yield curve most frequently employed are based on differences between interest rates on Treasury securities of contrasting maturities, for instance, ten years minus three months. The measures of real activity for which predictive power has been found include GNP and GDP growth, growth in consumption, investment and industrial production, and economic recessions as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The specific accuracy of these predictions depends on the particular measures employed, as well as on the estimation and prediction periods. However, the results are generally statistically significant and compare favorably with other variables employed as leading indicators. For instance, models that predict real GDP growth or recessions tend to explain 30 percent or more of the variation in the measure of real activity. See Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991). The yield curve has predicted essentially every U.S. recession since 1950 with only one "false" signal, which preceded the credit crunch and slowdown in production in 1967. There is also evidence that the predictive relationships exist in other countries, notably Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom. See Estrella and Mishkin (1997) and Bernard and Gerlach (1998).
|Q. How and when were the relationships first identified?
A. Analysis of the behavior of interest rates of different maturities over the business cycle goes back at least to Mitchell (1913). However, Kessel (1965) may have been the first to make specific reference, verbal if not quantitative, to the behavior of term spreads. He pointed out that various spreads between long- and short-term rates tend to be low at the start of recessions - the business cycle peak - and high as expansions get under way after a cyclical trough. Butler (1978) made a connection between the yield curve as a predictor of short-term interest rates and the implications of declining short-term rates for contemporaneous economic activity, foreshadowing some of the later logic. He correctly predicted that there would be no recession in 1979, though a year later the situation would have been quite different. The late 1980s saw a spurt in research on the yield curve as a leading indicator. Laurent (1988, 1989) used the term spread to predict GNP growth. Harvey (1988) developed a theoretical relationship between the real term spread and subsequent real consumption growth, and presented some confirming empirical evidence. Furlong (1989) noted some predictive power for recessions, but expressed skepticism about the yield curve's reliability as a leading indicator at that time. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1989, 1990, 1991) showed empirically that the yield curve may be used to predict real growth in consumption, investment, and aggregate GNP, as well as NBER-dated recessions. Stock and Watson (1989) developed a sophisticated model of coincident and leading indicators, with the term spread forming part of the latter. Chen (1991) looked at the predictive relationship from the point of view of financial market investors.
|Q. How long have these relationships existed, and do they still hold?
A. Kessel (1965) presents graphical evidence that shows that the term spread tends to be negative at cyclical peaks, using data that go back as far as 1858. He finds some evidence of the leading indicator properties of the spread in time periods from 1914 to 1933 and from 1954 to 1961. Bordo and Haubrich (2004) provide regression-based statistical evidence using U.S. data from 1875 to 1997 and Baltzer and Kling (2005) perform a similar exercise with German data from 1870 to 2003. Both papers conclude that predictability varies over time and that it seems to be related to monetary policy credibility. Most other studies use data since the 1950s. The most recent data suggest that some of the statistical models from which forecasts based on the term structure are constructed have undergone structural changes, particularly with regard to parameter values. The predictive power may still be there, but the values of the parameters that record the sensitivity to movements in the term spread may be somewhat changed from earlier periods. However, the simple rule of thumb that the difference between ten-year and three-month Treasury rates turns negative in advance of recessions is still reliable, with negative values observed before both the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions.
|Q. Are formal models needed to extract the information content in the yield curve, or are there also rules of thumb?
A. Much of the research on this topic has been based on formal statistical models, such as linear regressions and non-linear statistical equations. These models are useful in that they provide quantitative guidelines about the sensitivity of output growth to changes in the term spread and about the precise lead-lag relationships exhibited by the data series, as well as recession probabilities. Nevertheless, simple rules of thumb are available, such as the fact that yield curve inversions (negative term spreads) are followed by recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1996b) and Estrella (2005b) show that this approach may be made a bit more precise, though still simple, by presenting the relationship in tabular or graphical form.
|Q. What statistical models have been formulated?
A. Much of the analysis in the literature has focused on "continuous variables," data series whose values can in principle be any real numbers. Examples of these series are growth rates in GNP, GDP, industrial production, consumption, and investment. To predict these series, analysts have generally relied on relatively standard regression equations, taking care to deal with some important statistical issues. The most common issue results from the presence of overlapping observations in many of the applications. For example, suppose that we are interested in forecasting GDP growth over the next year using quarterly data. Then, two consecutive observations of the variable being forecasted correspond to time periods that have three quarters in common. Standard measures of statistical significance are in general inconsistent, and must be adjusted by using, for instance, the generalized method of moments estimators of Hansen (1982) or Newey and West (1987). When the objective is to predict recessions, the methodology used is typically a probit or logit equation, in which the forecasted variable only assumes the values one and zero (either the economy is in a recession or it is not). Note, however, that special techniques are also required in these models if the forecast horizon produces overlapping observations. See Estrella and Rodrigues (1998).
|Q. Which interest rates to use: Treasuries, fed funds, Eurodollar, swap, corporate?
A. Research on the United States business cycle has relied mostly on interest rates for U.S. Treasury securities. One reason is convenience: data for many maturities are available continuously from the 1950s to the present in a consistent format. Another reason is that the pricing of these securities is not subject to significant credit risk premiums that, at least in principle, may change with maturity and over time. For similar reasons, studies of other countries tend to use data on national government debt securities. Rates on coupon bonds and notes are most easily accessible, but researchers in many countries have also produced zero-coupon rates, which may be directly matched with the timing of the forecasts. Some analysts have also used, as short-term rates, the U.S. federal funds rate and rates closely controlled by central banks in other countries. These are useful for some purposes, but the control exercised by the central bank implies that these rates are not fully reflective of the expectations of financial market participants. The spread between ten-year Treasuries and fed funds is a very accurate predictor of U.S. recessions during some time periods, but less so in others. At certain times, concerns have been voiced that special factors, such as the federal budget surpluses of 1999-2000, might affect the supply or demand of Treasury securities and distort the signals incorporated in their prices. Attempts have been made to use other interest rates for which a yield curve may be constructed, like Eurodollar, swap or corporate rates. An important drawback to the use of such data, however, is their limited availability with regard to the length of historical time series, the number of points along the yield curve, or both.
|Q. What maturity combinations work best?
A. When the yield curve is used to predict inflation (e.g., as in Mishkin (1990a, 1990b), interest rate maturities are matched precisely with the forecast horizons for inflation. For instance, to predict the difference between inflation expected in the next five years and inflation expected in the next year, the difference between five-year and one-year Treasury yields is used. When forecasting real activity, in contrast, the best results are obtained empirically by taking the difference between two Treasury yields whose maturities are far apart. At the long end, the clear choice seems to be a ten-year rate, which is the longest maturity available in most countries on a consistent basis over a long sample period. At the short end, there is a wider variety of choices. An overnight rate, such as the fed funds rate, is close to the extreme of the maturity spectrum. However, its usefulness as an indicator of market expectations is confounded by its fairly direct control by the Federal Reserve. A common choice currently is the two-year Treasury rate, perhaps because of the liquidity of the associated instruments. Background research in connection with Estrella and Mishkin (1998) suggested that the three-month Treasury rate, when used in combination with the ten-year Treasury rate to predict U.S. recessions, provides a reasonable combination of accuracy and robustness over long time periods. In the end, most term spreads are highly correlated and provide similar information about the real economy, so the particular choices with regard to maturity amount mainly to fine tuning and not to reversal of results. The caveat is that a benchmark that works for one spread may not work for another. For instance, the ten-year minus two-year spread may invert earlier than the ten-year minus three-month spread, which tends to be larger.
|Q. Is it the level or the change in the spread that matters?
A. With many leading economic indicators, either individual variables or indices, analysts focus on the change or growth rate in the variable as a forecaster of future real economic conditions. In contrast, it is the level of the term spread - not the change - that helps forecast both recessions and changes in real economic activity. For recessions, it is clearly the level that matters. In a probit model of the probability of recession, a given change in the spread can have a very different impact, depending on the initial level of the spread. When the curve is very steep, say the spread is above 300 basis points, a change of 50 basis points in the spread hardly changes the probability of recession. However, if the spread starts out at 50 basis points, a decrease of that magnitude may raise the implied probability by 10 percentage points or more. Theoretical explanations of these empirical results are not easily formulated. A suggestive heuristic argument is that the term spread, being a difference between interest rates of different maturities, incorporates an element of expected changes in rates and is thus indicative of future changes in real activity. In 1996, the Conference Board added the yield curve spread to its index of leading indicators, focusing on monthly changes in the spread. Note, however, that it announced in June 2005 that it would adjust its procedures so as to focus on the level of the spread and not on the change.
|Q. Does it matter if changes are driven by the short or the long end?
A. The best forecast of future real activity is provided by the level of the term spread, not the change in the spread, nor even the source of the change in the spread. Thus, if a low or negative value of the spread is reached via an increase in the short-term rate or a decrease in the long-term rate, it is only the low level that matters. In the six months preceding the trough of each yield curve inversion in the United States since 1960, we see a decline in the ten-year Treasury rate in two of seven cases (before the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions) and an increase in the other cases. The direction of the change in the ten-year rate at the time of the signal does not appear to be indicative of the strength or duration of the subsequent recession. It is clear, however, that each recessionary episode is preceded (with varying lead times) by a substantial increase in the short-term rate.
|Q. Is an inversion required for a signal?
A. Although economic theory suggests that the yield curve should help forecast real output, no theory establishes a clear connection specifically between yield curve inversions and recessions. However, since 1960, a yield curve inversion (as measured by the difference between ten-year and three-month Treasury rates) has preceded every recession on record. In fact, in terms of monthly averages, the ten-year rate was at least 12 basis points below the three-month rate before every recession in that period. In contrast, very low positive levels of the spread have been observed without a subsequent recession. Specifically, there were two episodes in the 1990s in which the term spread attained very low positive levels (42 and 12 basis points respectively), but did not invert. In both of those cases, economic activity continued unabated after the troughs or low points for the spread. Thus, using inversion as a benchmark, there were no "false positives" during the period. While inversions and recessions may not be inevitably connected by theory, they correspond to extreme values of the term spread and output growth, respectively, which are in fact theoretically linked.
|Q. Does the signal have to be persistent?
A. Daily or even intraday changes in the term spread can be substantial. For example, for the spread between ten-year and 3-month rates, one-day changes of over 25 basis points occur about 2½ percent of the time. In some cases, these changes may be driven by market expectations of economic fundamentals and consequently may be persistent. In many instances, though, high-frequency changes in the spread may result from temporary demand or supply imbalances in the markets for Treasury securities, which may be quickly reversed and thus may not be truly reflective of changes in expectations about real economic conditions. One way to distinguish between perceived changes in fundamentals and temporary market phenomena is to trace the persistence of yield curve signals. A signal that lasts only one day may be dismissed, but a signal that persists for a month or more should be looked at carefully. Statistically, these distinctions may be captured by using data averaged over one month or more, which is quite common in the literature, or by including lagged effects in the model, as in Chauvet and Potter (2005).
|Q. Is the evidence robust over time?
A. An informal way to assess the robustness of yield curve forecasts of real activity is to examine visually the ex post accuracy of the results. In some cases, as with the regularity that yield curve inversions precede recessions, the evidence is immediate and quite consistent, as in the United States since 1960. The only apparent miss was in 1967, when the economy experienced a "credit crunch" that the NBER did not classify as a recession, despite a marked decline in industrial production. In other cases, such as with forecasts of real GDP growth, it is not altogether obvious whether the forecasting performance is consistent in different subperiods. Thus, it is helpful to apply formal statistical tests of model stability to the forecasting equations. Stock and Watson (2003) find instability in a large proportion of the models that are frequently used to forecast output growth. Their results stress the need to look for changes in parameter values that may result, for instance, from changes in monetary policy regime. Estrella, Rodrigues and Schich (2003) find modest evidence of instability in models used to forecast growth in industrial production, which suggests a similar caveat. However, the latter find no evidence of instability in models used to forecast recessions in Germany and the United States, suggesting that models with qualitative dependent variables may be more robust to changes in policy or other economic conditions.
|Q. How do binary models that predict recessions compare with models that forecast continuous dependent variables (e.g., real GDP or industrial production growth)?
A. These two types of models may be compared in two dimensions: accuracy and robustness. There is evidence that the most accurate binary models perform about as well as the most accurate continuous models. For example, Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1997) find that the R-squared in models of cumulative GNP growth is similar in magnitude to the pseudo R-squared in probit models of recession. The sample period may influence the results somewhat, particularly in the case of the continuous models. Stock and Watson (2003) find substantial evidence of instability over time in various models of output growth, and Estrella, Rodrigues and Schich (2003) find some instability in models of industrial production growth. However, the latter paper suggests that binary models of recessions are quite robust over time, both in Germany and in the United States.
|Q. How does the yield curve compare with other indicators?
A. In general, the yield curve tends to perform quite well in comparisons with other leading indicators, including the traditional leading indexes and their components, and other variables with potential predictive power. Indicators such as stock prices and interest rates may have similar performance to the yield curve at some horizons, but none seem to dominate the yield curve as a predictor. For instance, Dueker (1997) and Dotsey (1998) compare the yield curve with a few other variables as a leading indicator of recessions, and find generally supportive statistical evidence. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) compare the term structure as a predictor of recessions with a large number of alternative indicators, and find that it is among the best in tests of statistical significance, particularly at horizons of about one year. Stock and Watson (2003) examine a large number of competing indicators in forecasts of output growth and find that all of them fall short of ideal properties, but that within these limitations the term structure "comes closest" to achieving those goals.
|Q. How does the yield curve perform out of sample, and can it be supplemented with other indicators?
A. The yield curve performs quite well in out of sample tests of predictive accuracy, and it is not clear that, in general, supplementary information can improve its predictive performance. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) find that, at predictive horizons beyond one quarter, there is no match for the term structure as a predictor of recessions. Not only do a large number of other indicators fall short, but predictions deteriorate as those other indicators are added to the term spread in out of sample forecasting exercises. Stock and Watson (2003) similarly examine a large number of competing indicators, but focus on forecasts of output growth rather than recessions. They find that the term spread works best, but that it exhibits some instability. The nature of this instability seems sufficiently idiosyncratic that combining the term spread with some other indicators may improve performance in their equations.
|Q. How are predictions related to monetary policy?
A. Although there are different views of the instruments and channels of monetary policy, a tightening of monetary policy usually means a rise in short-term interest rates, typically intended in the end to lead to a reduction in inflationary pressures. When those pressures subside, it is expected that a policy easing will follow. Expected future short-term rates are important determinants of current long-term rates. Thus, long rates tend to respond to a monetary tightening by increasing, though given that a policy reversal is expected, they tend not to increase by as much as short-term rates. Thus, a simple explanation of the predictive power of the yield curve for future output growth is that a monetary tightening both slows down the economy and flattens (or even inverts) the yield curve. Monetary policy is therefore an important determinant of the predictive power of the yield curve. However, given that private-sector expectations are incorporated in interest rates, and given that those expectations are based on some concept of the structure of the economy, monetary policy is not likely to be the single determinant of the predictive power. Formal models with these properties are presented in Eijffinger, Schaling and Verhagen (2000), Hardouvelis and Malliaropulos (2004), and Estrella (2005a).
|Q. How are predictions related to market expectations of the economy?
A. One of the most pervasive theories of the determinants of the yield curve is the expectations hypothesis, which posits that long-term interest rates are averages of expected future short-term rates. In the "pure" version of the hypothesis, this is the whole story. That version has been repeatedly rejected in econometric tests [see Campbell (1995)], so it is likely that there are other important determinants as well, such as risk or liquidity premiums. Nevertheless, it is difficult to dispute that interest rate expectations play an important role, and that those expectations are related to future real demand for credit and to future inflation. A rise in short-term interest rates induced by monetary policy may lead to a future slowdown in real economic activity and demand for credit, putting downward pressure on future real interest rates. At the same time, slowing activity may result in lower expected inflation. By the expectations hypothesis, these expected declines in future short-term rates would tend to reduce current long-term rates and flatten the yield curve. Clearly, this scenario is consistent with the observed correlation between the yield curve and recessions. A formal model with these properties is presented in Estrella (2005a), and alternative specifications are considered in Eijffinger, Schaling and Verhagen (2000), Rendu de Lint and Stolin (2003), Malliaropulos (2003) and Hardouvelis and Malliaropulos (2004).
|Q. Is there causality from economic activity to the yield curve?
A. Most of the literature in this field deals with the yield curve as a predictor of future activity, but in principle there could be influences in the opposite direction, from economic activity to the yield curve. In a dynamic theoretical model with rational expectations, such as Estrella (2005a), both directions play a role. The term spread contains expectations of future activity, and it is affected by current monetary policy, which is influenced in turn by current economic activity. Empirically, Estrella and Hardouvelis (1990) use U.S. data to examine the effect of monetary policy on the yield curve, and Estrella and Mishkin (1997) perform a similar analysis for a panel of European economies. Evans and Marshall (2001) find consistent evidence that monetary policy shocks affect the nominal yield curve. In the context of a vector autoregression, Diebold, Rudebusch and Aruoba (2004) find that the influence in the direction from activity to the term structure is even stronger than the predictive relationships (though Stock and Watson (2003) warn about overinterpretation of such results). In general, theory and evidence are both supportive of a bidirectional relationship.
|Q. Should we expect the predictive power of the term spread for real activity to persist?
A. Accumulated experience with the forecasting power of the yield curve suggests that it is much more than a passing phenomenon. Warnings of its actual or possible demise are often voiced, as in Butler (1978), Furlong (1989), Watson (1991) and - to some extent - Dotsey (1998), but the fact remains that recessions still seem to follow inversions quite inevitably, as recently as in 2000-2001. Like many empirical models, some formal predictive models that forecast output growth based on the term spread seem to have a structural break around 1979-1980. Stock and Watson (2003) find substantial evidence of a break for models that predict output growth and Estrella, Rodrigues and Schich (2003) find more modest evidence for models that predict industrial production. However, this evidence does not necessarily imply that the predictive power of the yield curve has disappeared altogether, only that the values of the parameters in the formal models may have changed. Models of a more qualitative nature, such as those that predict recessions, seem to be affected much less or not at all, as documented by Estrella, Rodrigues and Schich (2003). Theory suggests (e.g., Estrella (2005a)) that there is a persistent predictive relationship between term spreads and future real output, though the precise parameters may change over time. Since yield curve inversions and economic recessions correspond to extreme values of those variables, a connection between inversions and recessions may be systematically detectable even if parameters change over time within reasonable bounds. Thus, although yield curve inversions may not be followed by recessions as a matter of universal mathematical principle, they should definitely raise warning flags about future output growth.


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Planned Parenthood now Sex, Inc.?
Pro-lifers say abortion business shows children to how-to's
By Dave Tombers
American Life League, one of the nation's largest grassroots pro-life organizations, says Planned Parenthood really isn't in the health business these days, it's in the sex business.
The organization says the abortion industry giant's "business model" essentially "is aimed at making money from people who are engaged in sexual activity." Celebrities such as Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., repeatedly have stumped for more federal tax money for Planned Parenthood.
ALL has produced a video, part of the American Life League Report, that documents Planned Parenthood's promotion of sex toys, sex contests, sex balloons, sex cupcakes, sex fruit rollups and sex costumes.
The video has been posted in an adult section on YouTube and, while informational for parents and adults, is explicit and should not be accessed by children.
ALL's opening statement in its report is, "Do not let children watch this episode of the American Life League Report."
In addition to showing viewers the indoctrination Planned Parenthood is delivering to younger and younger audiences, the report also brings to light internal Planned Parenthood memos dating before the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that show strategies on how to reduce the American population through methods such as "forced abortion" and "fertility control agents" dispersed in the nations water supply.
The video, called "Hooking Kids on Sex," exposes Planned Parenthood's decades-long endeavor to push sex on youngsters, much like a drug dealer hooks potential customers on narcotics.
Paul Rondeau, executive director of American Life League, told WND that the "Hooking Kids on Sex" report shows how Planned Parenthood uses tax money to push disturbing sexual behavior on kids, "because it drives future business for them."
"Those [young girls] are the women who will have abortions," the organization explains.
It also claims that 51 percent of Planned Parenthood' 2010 income came from abortions.
Rondeau said the video gathered 200,000-plus views in just four days.
"Any parent that sees the video of Planned Parenthood's material for school children will be horrified," ALL said.
The ALL report documents Planned Parenthood videos, websites and curriculum aimed at children as young as 10, including those that encourage kids to have sex and feature cartoon depictions on how to do it.
"Remember when activists alleged that just the fact that Joe Camel was a cartoon character implied kids should smoke, so he was banned?" asked Rondeau.
"Even people who thought they knew better were shocked by how Planned Parenthood promotes sex to youngsters," he said
The report begins with images of sex toys and graphics that the host identifies as being pushed by Planned Parenthood's "community activities." The narrator then declares, "But what's truly shocking, is how these perverts are allowed unfettered access to our children while raking in government cash to sell them unrestrained sex."
The "why" isn't complicated, the report says.
"Just as the goal of a drug dealer is to make drug addicts, Planned Parenthood's goal is to make sex addicts."
The host then wonders if Planned Parenthood is looking for future abortion and contraceptive customers.
Among the campaigns attributed to Planned Parenthood is a book pushed on a website for young readers titled "It's Perfectly Normal," which contains cartoon depictions of naked boys and girls, images of masturbation and cartoons of people engaged in sex.
"If a dirty old man showed this book to kids in a park, he'd be arrested," said the host. "Why does Planned Parenthood, a taxpayer-funded organization, get to distribute these books to our children and get more government money?"
A statement on Planned Parenthood's teen website, for example, encourages kids to seek arousal through breasts: "They are basically 'freebies,' since you can't get pregnant or catch sexually transmitted infection by going to 'second base,'" the statement said.
Other body parts are described in great detail on the website, including many declarations about "pleasure" and "feeling good," as well as detailed instructions on engaging in homosexual acts.
The ALL report also portrays a memo apparently written in 1969 by then-Vice President of Planned Parenthood-World Population Frederick S. Jaffe. It was to Bernard Berelson of the population council, which highlighted proposed endeavors to reduce U. S. fertility through organizations such as Planned Parenthood and the U. S. government.
"As shown in this memo from 1969, Planned Parenthood's national goal is to restructure the family and encourage increased homosexuality as a sick form of population control," explains the video.
The memo contains a table under the heading "Examples of Proposed Measures to Reduce U. S. Fertility" that contains subheadings such as "Restructure Family," followed by means to achieve the goal, such as "Postpone or avoid marriage" and "Alter image of ideal family size."
The memo then suggests other ways to help achieve a "restructured family" such as "Compulsory education of children," "Encourage increased homosexuality," "Educate for family limitation," "Fertility control agents in water supply" and "Encourage women to work."
Then the 1969 Planned Parenthood memo suggests even more radical measures such as "Discouraging private home ownership," "Additional taxes on parents with 1 or 2 children in school," "Compulsory abortions for out-of-wedlock pregnancies" and "Require women to work and provide few child care facilities."
ALL told WND that the report not only shows parents the disturbing methods Planned Parenthood uses to reach America's young children, such as through cartoons and games, but also through the hosting of "no-pants" sex parties.
According to ALL, the video report had to be replaced by nearly the same video this week after a former Planned Parenthood intern and abortion escort apparently complained to Youtube about a copyright violation.
Youtube replaced the "white hot" video with this message, "This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by Jessica Faerman."
ALL maintains that there were no copyright issues with the video but has modified it slightly and re-posted it as "Hooking Kids on Sex II."
It also has been made available online at other sites, including all.org, to ensure no further disruptions to the message.
Previous reports:
Guess who created Indiana Girl Scouts sex-ed program
Real reasons why Planned Parenthood freaked over Komen
Pelosi: Girl Scouts-Planned Parenthood relationship 'very valuable'


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Construction of AnC Bio plant gets underway
copyright the Chronicle May 20, 2015
by Joseph Gresser
NEWPORT — The long-delayed groundbreaking for AnC Bio took place under fair skies Thursday morning, May 14. Speakers hailed prospects for the $100-million biomedical facility, which is expected to employ between 400 and 500 people when it's up and running in a year and a half.
They will include people involved in manufacturing artificial organs, technicians to help run equipment in the clean room suites that will be available for rent by independent researchers, and scientists to perform research on stem cell therapies, said Bill Stenger, president of Jay Peak and one of the principals of AnC Bio Vermont. Mr. Stenger said people with education levels up to post-graduate degrees could find jobs at AnC Bio…To read the rest of this article, and all the Chronicle's stories, subscribe:
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Jump to navigation Jump to search
The predecessor to the Minifig, and were prominently featured in the creation of the Minifig, in the R. 1,977 at Hospital 555.
A few still remain, but it has recently been discovered that if these ProtoFigs are exposed to enough violence, they will immediately transform into newborn Deadly SpaceMen. This has lead leading scientists to hypothesize that all the remaining ProtoFigs must have been kept in a state of complete non-violence for the entirety of their existence. How this was achieved is as of yet unknown. But respected conspiracy theorists believe that it is achieved by The Cthu-Lhuminati in an attempt to form up a secret legion of SpaceMen warriors completely undetected by the outside universe.


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For the Puerto Rican Roman Catholic archbishop, see Roberto González Nieves.
Roberto Gonzalez (born in 1976 in Mexico City) was a Mexican Champ Car driver from Monterrey who competed briefly in the 2003 season and for all of 2004. In 2003 he made his debut in the race at St.Petersburg in Florida for Dale Coyne Racing failing to complete the race. His other appearance in 2003 was at home in Mexico City where he substituted for veteran Roberto Moreno scoring his 1st Champ Car points in 10th spot.
He was given a full-time ride with PKV Racing for the 2004 season complete with backing from the Mexican arm of Nextel. However, he had a disappointing year with a best result of 7th place in Cleveland highlighting a year where he only finished 15th in the points standings. He was not retained for the 2005 season.


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County Attorney's Office
Patrick F. Condon County Attorney
The County Attorney prosecutes felony and misdemeanor crimes under Nebraska Law. The Office assists in collection of child support and petitions with Juvenile Court (cases with children who are delinquent, neglected, dependent or in need of special supervision). The Office advises county agencies and defends suits brought against the County.
575 S 10th St, 4th Floor, Lincoln, NE 68508
Hours: Mon - Fri, 8:00 am to 4:30 pm
Phone: (402) 441-7321
Fax: (402) 441-7336


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Your ability to develop client relationships, show excellent customer care and retain your clients in the long-term, is vital to your organisation's business strategy. It is critical that you have the necessary skills to make successful direct contact with customers, build trust, and negotiate for your commercial objectives.
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In this package of 4 eLearning courses you will learn specific negotiation and technical skills that will bring about productive relationships with your clients. The courses included are:


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I walked 7 miles todaySo the Trekdesk is a tall desk in a u-shape, and it sits over top of a regular treadmill. I bought the Trekdesk on Amazon and found a used treadmill on Craigs. I wanted to find a treadmill that was of good quality and would let me run and incline and all that, and so far i'm happy with the one I found. It was heavy as a mother and probably needs a routine tune up but it's working out so far. I walked 7 miles today. Drawbacks might include the fact that I feel really funny with other people around. Most days there is at least 1 other person in my office so i've had to accept that I look like a dork to them. I'm trying to compensate by being more of a corporate raider and demanding respect through fear instead of perceived coolness. I'll keep you posted on that one. I'm walking 2 miles an hour, and although it's a leisurely rate, my body does heat up a bit as I go. I have a room fan that balances the heat, but then i've got the noise of the fan and the noise of the treadmill making things a bit loud. At least 1/3 of my day is on the phone, and I am having a little bit of trouble hearing clearly, especially on conference calls. No one has complained that I sound noisy, so maybe it's a 1 way problem. In any case I'm looking for a new phone headset that has amplified volume control. Overall I'm really happy with my TrekDesk. The side to side stability that others have complained about is a non-issue for me.
- JH (Los Angeles, CA - Amazon 5 Stars


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The last couple of weeks have been really busy for teachers, students and their families. Some families have been scrambling to get in those last few days of vacation fun before the school bells ring Monday morning.
Many students and their parents took advantage of the recent sales-tax-free weekend to buy school supplies and clothes.
For several weeks now, teachers have been preparing their classrooms for the return of students Monday.
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Growing crops of Calabria in Bay Area
This is the fifth in an occasional series on farmers and gardeners working to preserve their cultural foodways by growing heritage crops in the Bay Area.
Vicenzo and Maria Dito and their teenage daughter Rosetta left Calabria - the toe of the Italian boot - in 1974, knowing life in America would mean trade-offs: greater economic opportunities than in their isolated, hardscrabble homeland, but less for their kitchen in American stores.
The Ditos couldn't bring along their dairy goats, vineyards or olive trees, but they took the seeds of their tomatoes and peppers, beans, greens and herbs.
"Pretty much everything came over on that first trip," Rosetta Costantino recalled. Some of those heirloom varieties are now available from Franchi Seeds; back then, they could only be found in Calabria.
Today, Costantino keeps those plant lines going in the garden behind her Italianate home in the Oakland hills; her parents' garden is a short walk away.
After a successful high-tech career, Costantino has become a custodian of Calabrian foodways, with her classes, culinary tours and cookbooks: "My Calabria" (W.W. Norton and Co.; 2010), co-authored with Chronicle contributor Janet Fletcher, and "Southern Italian Desserts" (Ten Speed Press), due out in October.
Peppered with peppers
When we visited, the eggplant and tomato seasons were winding down, but the garden was still festooned with peppers.
The hot varieties grow in pots. Costantino introduced them: "These little devils are small and short; these long ones are really hot; the medium grade is larger. They don't taste like anything you can buy. We just know them as Calabrian hot peppers."
She and her family dry the larger sweet peppers in the sun and crush them into paprika: "People ask for the seeds from all over the world." Linda and Steven Butler grow them for restaurants, notably Berkeley's Gather, at their Lindencroft Farm near Ben Lomond (Santa Cruz County).
For the San Marzanos, Vicenzo Dito built a Great Wall of Tomatoes using leftover PVC pipe: "Nothing is sitting on the ground, so there's nothing to go rotten. We remove all the suckers, so all the energy goes into the fruit. Every single tomato sets."
Most of the San Marzanos are canned, 150 pounds' worth last season. The Oxheart tomatoes go into salads.
Long Italian eggplants thrive in their eastern exposure. We asked Costantino if she salted them, as recipes often specify, to mute their bitterness.
"There's no such thing as a bitter eggplant," she countered. "These are mild and sweet. The problem is that people buy them after they've been sitting around forever."
Sweet red onions from Tropea are unearthed and hung in trees so they won't sprout. A profusion of greens includes a cross between kale and broccoli rabe variously called spigariello and cavolo broccolo: "Different towns have different names." It's a cut-and-come-again vegetable, best sauteed in oil and garlic.
She grows more exotic things as well, like a grafted blood peach from Calabria: "It doesn't ripen until Thanksgiving. The flesh is red like a blood orange, tart and sweet."
'Nowhere else'
In pots she grows an herb called black anise. "It only grows in certain parts of Calabria - nowhere else in the world. We use it in cookies and chocolates, or grind the seed and sprinkle it on pasta or in sauce for a burst of flavor." The black seed has an intense licorice aroma and taste, augmented by deep-brown notes like coffee. Wild fennel? "We don't bother to grow that. That's something we forage."
Not surprisingly, dinner often comes from the two gardens: "The pantry is always loaded with our stuff. We preserve a lot during summer: Can the tomatoes, sun-dry the zucchini and preserve it under oil."
The Ditos stay active in both gardens. "They know how to treat the soil, when to water, when to plant," said their daughter.
"They always used to prune the vineyard by moon cycles, something that goes back to the Greeks and Romans. They know when a plant looks sick. My father was raised that way and remembers everything. He didn't have to go to agricultural school."
She showed us his zappa, a short forked hoe he brought with him: "It's sacred, and he still uses it." It's all done organically, with fertilizer from a goat farm, just like home's. Gardening in America required some adjustment but, "California, Calabria: same weather," said Vicenzo.
It seems those skills will be passed along. Costantino's teenage son Adrian has the family green thumb: "He spends a lot of time with his granddad in the gardens and is learning a lot from him so he can carry on some of the traditions," Costantino said. "And he's a good little chef."
My Calabria: Rustic Family Cooking From Italy's Undiscovered South: By Rosetta Costantino with Janet Fletcher. W.W. Norton & Co., 2010, $35.
Calabria From Scratch: www.calabriafromscratch.com
Franchi Seeds: Seeds From Italy: www.growitalian.com
Joe Eaton and Ron Sullivan are Berkeley freelancers and naturalists. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com


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Carnamah Historical Society & Museum
Carnamah is a town and farming district 300 kilometres north of Perth in the Mid West of Western Australia. We were founded in 1982 to collect, record, preserve and promote the history of the district.
We have an ever-increasing amount of online content including extensive databases detailing the lives of those who lived in the Coorow, Carnamah and Three Springs districts. Our databases are a blend of family and local history and are our unique way of telling our broader's district's history.
- Location:


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By Preston on Sunday, July 23, 2017I have owned about a dozen cars over the years, including two of the original SUVs, a 1975 International Scout II and a 1980 Ford Bronco. I dont plan to go off road, but the 4WD is handy in Illinois winters, it handles well in wet/icy conditions. The exterior dimensions are well balanced. Not to long, width adequate and height is just right. The exterior styling is stunning from front to rear. I didnt need a larger vehicle, I dont do any major hauling, but with roof rails, it can easily handle larger items such as dining tables or bedroom sets. The Sport performs as good as any mid level sedan, the 2.4L has very good acceleration and torque, so highway merging is not a problem. Ride comfort is no different either, but smooth and quiet as can be expected at this price. Interior materials remain basic, dashboard layout is functional, although a bit bland looking. Where the Sport rocks is the Rockford Fosgate navigation system and 710 watt system with a 10 built in subwoofer, which sounds awesome at lower volumes, but never used to wake up the neighborhood. This trim level has all the expected options, power everything, heated leather, moon roof with mood lighting, etc. Before I purchased, I read many the reviews, They were less than complimentary. I can say as an owner for 18 mos that those reviews are unfounded. It is not expected to compare to upper end vehicles. It performs well on suburban and highway roads. How many of us plan to go off road or cruise European mountainous winding roads?
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By bill on Tuesday, July 31, 2018Owned it for 4-1/2 years. Never had one problem. I get 24mpg in town 29 to 32 on the highway. First car I ever owned that the wind shield wipers blades never fell apart. Love the stereo system. Drivers seat is extremely comfortable.
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By Frances A. on Friday, July 05, 2019I still don't get how this car is underrated by experts. I own this car and have it for 5 years now and never fail me. This is a very reliable car. Not the best performance car but gets the job done - as what car should be.
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text: #1.0. This is a step-by-step guide, with videos and screenshots, for absolute beginners to Android and the Galaxy S4. Please read it carefully and thoroughly as it will take you through the installation procedure and answer most of your queries. (Warning On firmware releases that are Knox security enabled the following instructions will result in the Knox security flag being tripped. See, Knox Security & locked bootloader on new firmwares for more information.) Phil3759 is well known for his CWM, (ClockWorkMod), custom recoveries in the rooting and modding circles. The custom recovery is essentially the phone's stock kernel image with an elaborate CWM, ClockWorkMod, Recovery incorporated that replaces the very basic one that comes with stock and allows you to create, "nandroid", backups and a whole host of other tasks that are essential to modding your phone. You cannot root your phone with these recoveries so you will need to be rooted to install them. There are 2 methods of installing the PhilZ recovery that depend on whether you have a stock or a custom, CWM, Recovery already installed on your rooted phone. Method #1 for rooted phones with STOCK Recovery #1.1.Download PhilZ recovery for your model of phone Use this method of installation if you do not already have a custom, CWM, recovery installed. You will no doubt have Odin3, the necessary drivers and a USB lead already as you are rooted. It requires that you flash, via Odin3, the PhilZ recovery which, by itself, cannot be used to root your phone. Download the latest PhilZ recovery .tar.md5 file for your model of phone. Samsung Galaxy S4, GT-i9505, quad core... Download the latest PhilZ_touch jflte.tar.md5 file, here. or Samsung Galaxy S4, GT-i9500, octa core... Download the latest PhilZ_touch i9500.tar.md5 file, here. If you are unsure of the model of your phone, go to... Settings > More > About device > Model number Download the file to your desktop. This is the .tar file that contains the PhilZ custom recovery. #1.2. Step 1. Ensure that your phone is fully charged and that you have USB debugging enabled. On your phone, go to... Settings > More > About device > Build number and tap 7 times on it. This will enable the hidden, "Developer options", menu when you go back to the, "More", menu. Open the, "Developer options", menu and check, "USB debugging". See video, here. Put your phone into Download mode by turning it off completely and then press and hold the following buttons... Volume Down + Home (centre hard key) + (lastly) Power. Continue to hold these buttons until your phone boots into the Warning! screen asking you to press volume up if you want to continue or volume down to cancel. Press Volume Up. See video, here. #1.3. Step 2. Right click on Odin and select, "Run as Administrator", to open it. Ensure that the Samsung Kies programme is NOT running at the same time as this can cause problems With Odin displayed on your PC screen, click on the AP button, (formerly known as PDA on earlier versions of Odin), and navigate to the extracted PhilZ .tar file, that you placed on your home screen, and select it. Make sure that Re-Partition is unchecked and that Auto Reboot, F.Reset Time and PDA are checked and that the PDA box now contains your .tar file. #1.4. Step 3. Connect your phone, still in Download mode, to the PC using the USB lead. If you have successfully connected to Odin you should see the ID:COM box in Odin turn yellow or light blue, (depending on which version of Odin you are using). #1.5. Step 4. In Odin click the Start button and you should see a green progress bar above ID:COM and shortly after that the box above it will turn green with the word PASS! in it and your phone will automatically reboot. If during re-booting you are offered the option to, "Fix Root", then select No. Now go to #1.7 to install Nandroid Manager and Online Nandroid Backup. #1.6. Method #2 for rooted phones with CWM/TWRP Recovery This method is for those who are already rooted and have a CWM or TWRP Recovery but wish to install the PhilZ custom recovery with its enhanced touch facilities. Before doing anything, you should do a nandroid, Titanium and /efs file backup to your external SD card. These are your, "Get out of jail FREE" cards in case anything goes wrong, now or in the future. Download the latest PhilZ custom recovery .zip file for your model of phone. Samsung Galaxy S4, GT-i9505, quad core... Download the latest PhilZ_touch jflte..zip file, here or Samsung Galaxy S4, GT-i9500, octa core... Download the latest PhilZ_touch i9500.zip file, here (If you are unsure of the model of your phone, go to... Settings > More > About device > Model number) Place it on your external SD card, safest place, (if you downloaded it using your phone it will be in... "/mnt/sdcard/Download"). You should now boot your phone into Recovery mode, see video, here, and select Install zip and choose External sdcard. You then navigate to "philz_touch .zip", and install it. Before rebooting it is a good idea to also select Wipe cache partition and, under Advanced, Wipe dalvik cache. Now, go back and select Reboot System now. For more details and support for the PhilZ custom recovery, visit the developers website, here. #1.7. Installing Nandroid Manager and Online Nandroid Backup. To make full use of the options that are now available you will need to download and install, "Nandroid Manager", and, "Online Nandroid Backup", from the Google Play Store. You are now able to make, "nandroid", (mirror image of OS, app's and settings), backups and restores. Tip: In Online Nandroid Backup > Menu > Settings > Default Backup Settings > Save Location... set it to, "/storage/extSdCard", as nandroids can be around 4GB and would soon fill up your internal storage. #1.8. Note: If you flash a stock Samsung firmware which contains a stock, un-rooted, kernel, in future you will need to re-root and install the custom recovery again. Thanks go to Phil3759 for his kernel and instructions. Feel free to make a donation to Phil3759 for all his hard work. (Whilst I have taken every care in compiling this guide, I cannot be held responsible for any damage that may occur through its use, or mis-use, and the decision to use this guide lies with you, the owner. This guide is written solely for, and on behalf of, Android Forums and may not be reproduced, in part or whole, without permission.) ironass motto... "Flash in haste... repent at leisure"


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Also, please be aware that reports and information relating to Investor Relations may contain forward-looking statements. We call your attention to our Safe Harbor caution for forward-looking statements that you will find at the end of every press release and in our annual report on Form 10K on file with the SEC. The Safe Harbor caution identifies factors and risks that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the content of our forward-looking statements.


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Republican Laura Carno has formed a new group, which she said is designed to counter what she sees as a fake "War on Women."
The El Paso County political operative used her own money for the initial startup of a 527 political group "I Am Created Equal," which will be running radio and TV ads throughout the election. This week it launched its first radio spot.
"The president's campaign implies that women should vote for the president for re-election because he will give them equal rights," Carno said. "What the president fails to acknowledge is that the government doesn't give us our rights. They simply are our rights. We just want the government out of our way."
She said she believes the War on Women was manufactured by Democrats to "get women stirred up," but in focus groups unaffiliated females say they are worried about bread-and-butter issues, not birth control.
Here's the script for the radio ad:


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I am by no means Captain of the P.C. Police.
In fact, I'm a firm believer in following the philosophy of respecting whatever floats your boat.
Dr. Del is no Dr. Phil. So you won't hear me telling another parent that they shouldn't let their infants be held by this guy, or that their toddlers will suffer permament hearing damage if exposed to this "music."
But sometimes you've just gotta make a citizen's arrest. With that in mind, I'd like to call out the genius who drives this Jeep.
I photographed this Jeep parked at an East Bay BART station a few weeks ago…
I did a Scooby-Doo double take when walking past this "Wrangler," back to my car. Got in my car and drove around it twice to make sure I wasn't hallucinating. Finally I had to park next to it, get out and take some snapshots of it with my computer (only camera I had).
I'm sure I looked suspicious and silly pointing my laptop around this Jeep. But what words that start with "S" can you think of to describe the dude (and come on, we ALL know this is the work of a "man") who installed this INFANT car seat.
I'd like to give this father the benefit of the doubt that when traveling with an infant passenger he at least puts on the protective plastic window covers that a Jeep Wrangler's safety is so renown for. I suppose it can't be any more dangerous than the backseats of the Brady Bunch station wagons that we all rode in…. back in 1977!!
If I'm not mistaken, these types of seats face the rear.The kid must have an incredible view. I wonder what it looks like to get flipped off by a baby? All I know is that if I was driving behind this family I would probably flip my car over and crash.
At any rate, I suppose it's possible that the child never rides in the back of this Jeep. Maybe he installed in case of emergency. Maybe it's a fashion statement?
You never know. But then again, sometimes you do.


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Monday, January 18, 2010
Billy Jack Brinlee, 1934-2010
The last of my parents' siblings – Billy Jack Brinlee, my father's youngest brother – has died.
It had been many years since Uncle Bill and I had seen one another, but over the past couple of years we spoke to one another on the phone a number of times. We talked about family history, about his own career in the Navy and later in construction, about our families now, about our common love for our cats (Uncle Bill and his wife Cheryl had around 10), and about anything else that came to mind. The notes I have from these conversations will add a lot to our family history.
My younger daughter interviewed Uncle Bill for a school history project and we taped the interview; we are so glad now that we did. Uncle Bill's experiences in the Navy provided rich material for my daughter's report. He witnessed quite a few atomic bomb tests in the Pacific and remembered early (1961) actions in Vietnam, and he visited a number of places around the Pacific.
Uncle Bill was always one of my favorite relatives; he was funny and although he joked and teased a lot, he was never unkind. I think meanness of any kind was totally alien to his character.
He was the one who would run after me and "catch" me when I "ran away from home" at the age of two.
He was the one who dunked me into the fast-flowing waters of the Colorado River, causing me to laugh helplessly as I reveled in the daring and frightening experience.
He was the one who brought kimonos to my mother and me from Okinawa. He also brought me a grass skirt from Hawaii, and never laughed at my five-year-old posturings as a "princess" when I wore the kimono, grass skirt, and a cut-out paper crown.
He was the daredevil. He was the one who took me for a ride on his motorcycle. He broke his leg riding it twice. He once got a ticket for going 71 miles per hour while standing on the seat on the Hollywood Freeway. A policeman on a motorcycle pulled him over and told him: "We don't have Marlon Brandos out here!" Bill also recalled driving to Las Vegas in our Edsel at 110 miles per hour.
He was the one whose grin and laugh were irresistible, contagious, and guaranteed to start a giggling fit (in his adoring niece, at least).
Billy Jack Brinlee was born on 16 May 1934 in Ivanhoe, Fannin County, Texas. He was the son of Lawrence Carroll Brinlee and Sallie Frances Norman. Like my father, he left home at a young age (16 years old) to find work. He served in the Navy on the USS Belle Grove in the late 1950s and early 1960s and then returned to in the construction industry; he retired early, at age 55, due to emphysema. He lived at various times in Texas, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Arizona.
In 1963 he married Pauline Brice Coleman. He always referred to her children as his children and her grandchildren as his grandchildren, never as stepchildren and step-grandchildren. He was very proud of them and loved to tell about them. Pauline died in 1993; Bill later met and married his second wife, Cheryl. They lived in Bullhead City, Arizona for a while and spent part of the year on the old Brinlee family farm in Ivanhoe, Texas; a few years ago they sold the Arizona house and moved to Ivanhoe to live full time. There they enjoyed raising vegetables and pampering their large crew of cats.
He died on January 10, 2010 at his home in Ivanhoe, Texas.
It is difficult to do justice in writing to Uncle Bill's humor and generous personality; the few pictures I have of him, shown above, may convey his personality better through his twinkling eyes and easy smile.
I hope to be able to post some excerpts from the transcripts of my telephone conversations with Uncle Bill in the coming weeks. Here is his obituary:
Billy Jack Brinlee
From North Texas e-News
Jan 12, 2010
"Ivanhoe, Texas -- Graveside services for Billy Jack Brinlee, age 75, of Ivanhoe, will be held at 2:00 P.M. Wednesday, January 13, 2010 at Bettes Cemetery under the direction of Wise Funeral Home. Bro. Mark Owens will officiate. Billy Jack passed away Sunday, Jan. 10, 2010 at his residence.
"Billy Jack was born on May 16, 1934 in Ivanhoe, the son of Lawrence Brinlee and Sallie Frances Norman Brinlee. He attended North Fannin Schools and was a U.S. Navy Veteran. He attended Elwood Baptist Church and married Cheryl Bourland on July 1st, 2006. He was preceded in death by his brothers, Leroy, Lewis Wayne, R. Jean "Windy" and GT Brinlee.
"He is survived by:
Wife: Cheryl Brinlee of Ivanhoe
Step sons: Billy, Charlie and Raymond Coleman
Step daughters: Linda Gallher, Dolly Coleman, Terri Richards and Christi Slay
Numerous step grandchildren and step great grandchildren
The family will receive friends at Wise Funeral Home on Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2010 from 12:30-1:30 PM prior to service time."
9 comments:
That is a lovely tribute, Greta. Prayers from Reflections From the Fence to your family.ReplyDelete
Greta, I am very sorry for your loss.ReplyDelete
I echo Carol, a moving tribute to your uncle.... and 10 cats....he had to be a terrific guy! Sympathy to you and your family from Flipside, Greta.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousJanuary 18, 2010 at 6:49 PM
A beautiful remembrance, Greta. May he rest in peace. I'll remember you and your family in my prayers tonight.ReplyDelete
What wonderful memories you have of your uncle. My condolances to you and your family.ReplyDelete
Greta, you have given your uncle a beautiful tribute. I a sorry for your family's loss.ReplyDelete
thank you for sharing this beautiful gift of love that you penned for your beloved uncle.The love and the joy of life was in every word.
Carol, Apple, Linda, Amy, Tracy, Amy, and Joan:ReplyDelete
Thank you all for your expressions of sympathy. It helps me to know that Uncle Bill has your prayers and that I have been able to share at least a little part of what made him so wonderful.
Greta, I'm so sorry for your loss. Your uncle sounds like he was a wonderful man - and you honored him with just as wonderful a tribute. Thanks for sharing him with us.ReplyDelete
Nancy from My Ancestors and Me


text:
Welcome to Paris!
Paris 26 Gigapixels is a stitching of 2346 single photos showing a very high-resolution panoramic view of the French capital (354159x75570 px). Dive into the image and visit Paris like never before!
Learn more about the project
Visit the project's blog
Try with your images!
Make the buzz!
Making & Partners
Spotting : Martin Loyer
Shooting : Arnaud Frich
Image-stiching : Kolor
Interaction : Kolor & Arrêts sur Images
Contact - Press - Legal notice


text:
Thursday, May 18, 2006
Dulce et Decorum est Pro Patria Mori
I was in the military for four years and I had it easy. I squeaked in between conflicts and managed to stay stateside for my tour. I currently live in a military town and the losses here are particularly hard felt, but there is no shortage of grim determination either.
It's an interesting thing to be in what could pass for the set of a patriotic hollywood movie (do they still make them?). That's what if felt like today. I did not know these gentlemen who had been killed. Listening to the service it was obvious that they had gone down in a blaze of glory, fighting the enemy, and, ultimately, dying as a result.
For someone in a generation that missed, for the most part, these kind of sacrifices it's just very humbling to see. While I was listening to the Chaplain, the Commanding Officer, and the friends offer eulogies, I had to ask myself if I could have done what these guys did. I don't think I will ever know.
Some may say that there is an element of heroism in the practice of medicine. I would disagree. I think it is an honorable profession, don't mistake me, and I'm proud to be a physician. However, there really is something unique about being a warrior. In no other profession does one chose to literally become a target, hopefully a lethal one, for the greater good. In no other profession does death seek you specifically. It takes a special individual to realize this and to choose it anyway.
The M-16s with bayonets stuck in the ground, the Kevlar helmets, the tears, the roll-call, the rifle shots, and the playing of 'Taps'. I see death all the time but this was different. This was sacrifice, this was a choice, this was heroic, this was important, and I will not forget.
8 comments:
- Anonymous12:18 AM, April 21, 2007
Thank you for sharing this post. Your posts (and those of your M.D.O.D-mates) often make me laugh, but always give me pause to consider the truths of life.ReplyDelete
thank you.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous8:52 PM, June 09, 2007
If you're ever interested in helping decrease the number of memorial services, see what you can do about letting some Navy Corpsman or Army Medics shadow you for some of your trauma patients, or if you can get them into an observer slot during a trauma surgery. I am a reserve Navy Corpsman after 4 active and 2 tours in Iraq. I recently got to go to my first cadaver lab and i learned more in 8 hours with an ER resident then i had in the last three years. The Good Corpsman and Medics (Docs) will appreciate your help in ways you cant imagine. So will their patients.ReplyDelete
HM2(FMF) Heidrich
thank you for your service, corpsman. without going into detail let me say that i am involved in just such a program right now.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous12:10 PM, June 10, 2007
Outstanding. Thank you. If you have any positions available, or if you can give any input on how I could help establish a similar program here, Id appreciate it. If your willing/able to help, I'll post my contact details here, and you can email me yours.ReplyDelete
Thanks again.
Doc Heidrich
i look forward to getting your contact details. as it is very important for me to remain anonymous i will figure out a way to contact you without revealing my identity. i need an email and your duty station. i think i can help a bit from there. also, if you would, do me a favor and go to the post entitled, ''you americans'' and post a flame or two to someone in the comment section named 'two dudes'. from someone who has been there it would be revealing. i will look forward to getting your info.
- Anonymous8:01 PM, June 10, 2007
With pleasure.ReplyDelete
You mentioned your close to a base of some sort. Any marine can look up my email address.. Im in the NMCI Global address book. It will have both email and current duty station. You can email me there. You also mentioned you have a Special fighting friend. he can also look me up in the navy address book, just change the branch of service, as i dont check the navy account anymore.
Doc Heidrich
- Anonymous10:14 AM, October 10, 2007
Of course I am biased, but Navy HMC, the 8404, are outstanding!ReplyDelete
I attended the funeral of Army Spc. Josiah Vandertulip, who came under small arms fire while on a dismounted patrol in Baghdad. Oustanding family. As I recall, they live on "Liberty Lane", which I thought was appropriate for the sacrifice given by their son. I had never met him, but felt it appropriate to attend his funeral and honor his sacrifice.
Tammy Swofford


text: Is it possible that just a few stamps could effortlessly express affection, appreciation, and fondness? We say it is, which is why we made this stamp set for you. Plus, who doesn't love roses?Our classic wood-mount rubber stamps* Have deeply etched images so you get a superior stamped impression each time. * Are precut so you don't have to trim.* Come with farmed-maple wood blocks—you don't need to buy blocks separately.* Permanently mount on the blocks so they're ready to go when you are. * Come packaged in cases with images on the spine for easy storage and quick reference.Quantity: 6 rubber stamps


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I'll only be accepting the first 29---I might make an exception though, so you can still post away.
To join, please include the following:
1-name of your comic
3-description or comment of your comic
4-a 200x40 pixel banner which at least shows an example of what your drawing-style is like
and after that add the dropdown to your main page. If it's not on there you won't get added. Here's the code:
- Code: Select all
<SCRIPT LANGUAGE="javascript" SRC="http://streak.keenspace.com/baka.js"></SCRIPT>
~~note: i did change the requirements. it's not just manga-influenced, anyone can join now. plus now the banner is required.


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The silver lining for Ashbrook after Friday�s loss to Hunter Huss was what lies ahead.
The silver lining for Ashbrook after Friday�s loss to Hunter Huss was what lies ahead.
This week�s Big South 3A Conference tournament gives the Green Wave another shot at a title after Ashbrook fell to Hunter Huss 72-67 Friday in a game that settled the regular-season championship. Hunter Huss earned a bye for this week�s conference tournament while Ashbrook faces a quick turnaround for Monday�s first round.
�This group, they�re a family. They love each other and it was tough on all of us,� Ashbrook coach Chad Duncan said immediately after Friday�s loss. �But the good thing is we�ve got the tournament � so we�re not done yet.�
Ashbrook will host a girls-boys doubleheader Monday as the Big South girls and boys open the tournament on the same day with higher seeds hosting each game. The fourth-seeded Green Wave girls will host North Gaston at 6 p.m., and the second-seeded Ashbrook boys will follow at 7:30 against seventh-seeded North Gaston.
Other first-round girls matchups include No. 7 seed Hunter Huss at No. 2 Forestview and No. 6 Kings Mountain at No. 3 South Point. The boys first round sets No. 6 seed South Point at No. 3 Crest and No. 5 Kings Mountain at No. 4 Forestview.
The boys and girls semifinals are scheduled for Wednesday, with top-seeded Hunter Huss hosting the boys games and No. 1 seed Crest hosting the girls games. Crest will also host Friday�s boys and girls finals as it is the girls No. 1 seed�s turn in the rotation.
The Southern Piedmont 1A/2A Conference tournament also begins Monday for the boys and girls teams, with higher seeds hosting each game. Lake Norman Charter hosts the only doubleheader as the Knights face the Cherryville girls and West Lincoln boys.
The East Lincoln (No. 2 seed), Bessemer City (No. 3) and Highland Tech (No. 4) boys will host first-round games, as will the Lincolnton (No. 1 seed), North Lincoln (No. 3) and West Lincoln (No. 4) girls. Lincolnton and Lake Norman Charter shared the regular-season girls championship but the Wolves won a draw for the top seed in the tournament.
East Lincoln will host the remainder of the SPC tournament, with the girls semifinals set for Tuesday, boys semifinals Wednesday and both finals Friday.
The East Gaston girls earned the No. 5 seed for the MEGA 7 3A/4A Conference tournament and will face fourth-seeded Charlotte Catholic in the first round 8 p.m. Monday. Charlotte Catholic will host the entire tournament.
The sixth-seeded East Gaston boys face No. 3 seed Berry Academy 6:30 p.m. Tuesday. The girls semifinals will be held Wednesday, boys semifinals Thursday and both finals Friday.
Phillip Gardner: 704-869-1843; twitter.com/gazettephil
Full area conference tournament schedules


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Hi Archaeologica- Im back acfter posting very little the past few years! id like to join your community as I get closer to my goal of joining the university ranks. I may have thrown the Bible at you all in the past, I am still fascinated with Biblical studies but am no longer a towering Jesus freak. I have offended others in the past. (Ask away). If I have here, I am sorry. I still believe in Jesus, and will until Idie. However I also believe in science, and some incredibly radical archaeological theories/ideas.... stuff that would turn our human understanding on its head.
I see a few core members are still active posters. minimalist, Digit, Ishtar.... hello. Look forward to discussing our shared interest.


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To the Editor,
In the Sept. 14th Daily News syndicated columnist Rich Lowery was ridiculing President Obama's job creation proposal and in the same article, ridiculed Abraham Lincoln's internal improvement proposal while he was an Illinois legislator. He conveniently and shamelessly ignored the Pacific Railroad Act which was passed by Republican President Lincoln and the Republican Congress in 1862 right in the middle of the Civil War ,when the U.S. was, like now, having a huge financial crisis. The bill allowed the creation of the transcontinental railroad which Wikipedia calls "one of the greatest American feats of the 19th century". The railroad bill was originally proposed in 1856 but it quickly died because Congress and the country were so divided over slavery. Does this sound a little similar to United States today? We appear to be a hopelessly divided nation and it is easy to see why little or nothing is getting done to help solve our problems.
Steve Kabe


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(First of all I want to apologize for my english as I am Dutch. I will try to do my utmost to define everything as best as I can in english)
My son was diagnosed with DIG on june 22th 2011. He then was at the age of 4 years. The days before diagnose he was ill, having headages, throwing up. Alarmbells began to ring as he was not able to stand on his left leg and holding his left shouders down. An MRI showd us a, what was later diagnosed DIG, huge tumor taking almost the whole right side of my sons head.
A day later on june 23th 2011 suddenly the situation became very unsafe, not stable, my son was screaming from a headage. Neurosurgeon decided to operate immidiatly. The tumor had been removed. The neurosurgeon expected he had removed everything but during later controle-MRI there was still a rest tumor. My son recovered well from his operation, having fysiotherapy every week and at school keeping up with children of his age.
Since januari 2012 uptill oktober 2012 the rest tumor has been growing. In that period my son has had several epileptic attacks due to the fact that the tumor is located in that part of the brain where epileptic attacks are triggered. From oktober 2012 uptill now the rest tumor has not grown. However the condition of my son is getting worse in the periods (after having no problems for several months) where he is ill, having fever of very low temperature, loosing his balance (not walking straight and his left leg and shoulder not moving well) and the epileptic attacks getting more and worse in that period.
Since his operation in june 2011 he has had 3 episodes of about 2 months each where he is not feeling well. Each episode begins with him getting furious/angry very quickly, not sitting still and being noisy in the classroom and having epileptical attacks at nigths, just within 2 hours afther going to sleep. In the periode he has epileptical attacks he has temperatures far below 36 degrees, somethimes even to 34,0 degrees (normal is about 36,4 degrees).
After having the worst part of such an episode he recovers, getting more energy, epileptical attacks reduces to about once a month and he is not getting angry as fast as the weeks before, doing well at school.
At this moment neurosurgeon is considering about whether he will operate again and remove the rest tumor. He can not guarantee that the epileptic attacks will dissapear after removing the rest tumor. We have had several conversations with neurosurgeon and neurologist yesterday and the day before. It looks like there is an operation comming up in the next few months. Meanwhile I want to learn, read as much as I can about DIG.