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Data is the new oil? No: Data is the new soil. (David McCandless, TEDGlobal)The quest to cultivate useful insights from data is nothing new. From Frederick Winslow Taylor's time-and-motion studies on worker productivity over a century ago up to today, the ability to gain true insight has been an on-going pursuit for many. The goal, according to business leaders and technologists, will be a smarter world, with more efficient companies, better-served customers and superior decisions guided by data and analytics. Yet it is abundantly clear that data, by itself, holds little value unless you put the right human power behind it that knows which questions to ask and how to glean insights from the data. As we like to say here at First Insight, "Data is Ubiquitous – Insights are Rare. "One of the biggest areas in retail where Big Data can make a significant impact on the business is new products. Why should retailers consider using analytics to successfully select and price new products? I'll give you two reasons:
When you buy a car, there are two factors that come into play before you turn the key and drive away: facts and feelings.
The facts are easy: MPG, horsepower, technology, number of seats, safety features. But when it comes to your feelings about the car, a completely different part of the brain kicks in. Is this car "me"? Does it feel "right"? Do I love the color? Are the seats heated? Do I feel safe?
In retail, experience and intuition will always play a role, but today's environment requires a combination of experience and data to maintain a competitive edge.
In a report released in January 2014 entitled "Retail Analytics Moves To The Frontline," Retail Systems Research (RSR) presented a current view of the state of analytics and where retailers see value in using data across various areas of the organization. Retail was, and for some still is, an emotion-driven business. However, as the RSR report states, it is now more evident than ever that the retail industry is moving towards a stronger mix of data AND intuition-based decision-making.
We are accustomed to seeing data analytics used by marketing departments and the supply chain organization. What stood out to me in the RSR report was the fact that 80% of product development and merchandising departments are now data-oriented when it comes to decision-making. On the flip side, more than 40% of "laggards" (retailers with less than 3% comp store/channel sales growth) are merchandising and marketing solely on experience and intuition.
For retail "winners" (retailers with greater than 3% comp store/channel sales growth), the area listed as the top opportunity for greater use of analytics to drive business results was "More intelligent allocation and optimization of products based on customer insights."
At First Insight we are seeing an acceleration in the number of retailers using our solution for just this purpose. Just last week, Trefis (a leading stock analysis and forecasting firm) wrote an article discussing the impact they expect First Insight's predictive analytics to have on Abercrombie & Fitch's business:
By leveraging First Insight's data, Abercrombie will be able to invest in more relevant products, which can help it attract customers and operate with fewer markdowns.
Hidden within the oceans of retail data are "signals" which contain insight that can help retailers figure out what customers want that require quick action. But not all "signals" that contain insights are obvious. There are benefits in "weak" signals, but it takes discipline and the right analytics to find these signals and make them actionable.
Weak Signals Produce Winning Ideas An example of the successful identification and use of "weak" signals by Nordstrom was outlined in a February 2014 article by McKinsey and Company titled, "The Strength of 'Weak Signals.'"
Nordstrom took an early interest in engaging consumers through social media and found that it was an excellent approach to identifying which products were resonating with customers in an open, social environment.
The article stated, "Spotting an opportunity to share this online engagement with in-store shoppers, the company recently started displaying popular items in two of its Seattle-area stores. When early results were encouraging, Nordstrom began rolling out the test more broadly to capitalize on the site's appeal to customers as the "world's largest 'wish list.' "
Spotting these signals can yield actionable results, and applying predictive analytics can give retailers a much more focused picture that exposes the true customer behavior they are looking for.
Plan, Execute and Manage - Looking Forward, Not BackWinning retailers know that data and analytics support the decision-making process rather than replace it. According to the RSR report, 66% of respondents said a mix of data and experience were used to make decisions in the product development group, and 69% of respondents said the same in the merchandising organization.
The most powerful signals in retail come from consumers. Identifying weak signals consumers generate through consumer engagement takes discipline. Today, technology makes it easier to convert these signals into clear decisions which drive margin gains. The power of predictive analytics lies in finding these signals and listening to the "right" customers about future needs.
At First Insight, we say: "Data is ubiquitous, Insights are rare."
Successful retailers are getting the right data into the hands of their seasoned merchants, product designers and marketers – at the right time.
What has your data done for you lately?
Request a demo to see what many of the world's leading retailers, brands and designers have found. Value.
Predictive analytics and big data continue to be in a state of flux when it comes to implementation and gaining actionable insights. A recent survey by KPMG revealed a major disconnect among those in the C-Suite, who realize the value of big data but are unsure how to successfully implement and manage the data resources.
We live in an increasingly data-driven world where data & analytics have the potential to revolutionize the way we conduct and manage business operations across the entire enterprise," said Mark Toon, CEO of KPMG Capital. "From CEOs, to CFOs, CIOs and CMOs, the challenge for today's executive is understanding how to draw actionable insights from data and turn them into tangible, genuine results."
Even though 99% of those CFOs and CIOs interviewed consider data & analytics to be important to their businesses, 75% find it difficult to make decisions using the information.
Why is it such a challenge to draw actionable insights from data and turn them into measurable results? Perhaps it is the fundamental lack of understanding around what your challenges are and addressing them with the right data.
Amazon Data Analytics on the MoveJeff Bezos and Amazon have continued to push the boundaries of innovation when it comes to customer service. The "delivery-by-drone" concept is certainly intriguing and takes online purchasing and delivery to a whole new level (we'll see if it gets off the ground). But it was this week's announcement of a patent for "anticipatory shipping" that really caught my eye.
The concept takes data from wish lists, product searches and returns and browsing patterns, analyzes for shopping patterns, and predicts what goods customers will ultimately order. The goods will then be held closer to where the customer lives, reducing shipping time once it is ordered. Bezos wants to ensure the "last mile" the product travels is short and is just as efficient as the "first mile".
Amazon is using data - lots of it - to strengthen their already-excellent customer service and competitive edge in order to deliver strong shareholder value. Like most successful business leaders, Bezos is never satisfied with the status quo. And although both the drone delivery and anticipatory shipping are still in testing, clearly "business as usual" is not a part of his vocabulary.
Identify the Challenge – Let Data Do the WorkAs I dig further into the KPMG report, this statistic jumped out at me: "56% of respondents changed their business strategy to meet the challenges of big data." This seems counterintuitive to me. Why? I guess it's because I see data as a means to address the challenges retailers face, not a challenge in and of itself. If data is the challenge, then perhaps the focus is not on the right challenge the business is facing.
As a former retailer turned analytics junkie, I witnessed first-hand the challenges retailers face. First Insight was started with a question: Why? Why do more than 50% of new product introductions fail? Why do retailers miss the upside on successful products? Why do retailers continue to use the same methods for selecting and pricing new products as they did 20, 40 or even 100 years ago?
This leads me to the reason why the number-one read article in the business section of WSJ.com in 2013 was about Black Friday and the "games" retailers play with discounts and promotions. Although millions of consumers still hold out for Black Friday "deals and door busters," the number of consumers who live by the motto, "I don't even get excited unless it is 40% off," is on the decline. As you may know, the article highlighted First Insight as a solution to these challenges.
The change in what Black Friday means after so many years signals a significant shift in the way consumers shop and therefore how retailers should approach their new product selection and pricing process.
The Right Data in the Right Hands drives SuccessHistorical data, surveys, focus groups and conjoint studies are the traditional ways retailers select and price new products. These methods can take a tremendous amount of time, money and human resource to collect and analyze and often times do not yield actionable data that drives results.
54% of respondents in the KPMG survey stated that their greatest barrier to implementing a data & analytics strategy was an inability to identify what data to collect. At First Insight, we have identified the data that needs to be collected in order to create actionable insights that deliver bottom line results and shareholder value. Engaging the consumer with a more direct and analytical approach is the key to staying ahead of consumer demand. True demand sensing requires a shift in the way you implement the voice of the customer. The right approach takes you from listening to your customer to thinking like your customer.
Our experience has translated into satisfied customers that use our data to ensure they sell more winning products, minimize or eliminate the negative affect of losing products, take advantage of the upside and see data -the right data, - as their ally.
As I walked the hall on Monday morning, it was clear this truly is "The BIG Show." Attendance this year was up 8% from 2013, with 30,000 registered attendees – a new record. Eighty-two countries were represented and there were more than 70 delegations from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Sweden and Russia.
While listening to Matthew Shay, President and CEO of NRF speak about the need for leadership, particularly from the government, my confidence in retail's representation by NRF with our nation's leaders was confirmed. Shay stated, "At NRF, we know that our job is to be your eyes and ears – to be your voice – on the most important issues of the day." Reforming the tax code, opening new markets for American goods, and fixing the broken immigration code so we can welcome new talent are three main areas Shay and NRF are focused on in 2014.
Switching gears, Forrester's Sucharita Mulpuru highlighted how successful 2013 was with regards to e-commerce. Average web growth was 29% in 2013, and 2014 promises to be even better. Retailers surveyed for the "State of Retailing 2014" ranked mobile projects such as responsive design, mobile site optimization, and tablet redesign as their top priorities.
With pricing such a hot topic these days, I was intrigued by her comment that "…half of consumers would be willing to pay a premium of 1 to 5 percent in order to get a the product on the spot in the store versus having to wait for an online order." The death of brick-and-mortar has been greatly exaggerated, and a unique mobile experience along with unique products and assortments "will enhance their chances of their mobile (and in-store) success and create a distinct competitive advantage."
Former President George W. Bush delivered this year's keynote. His comments echoed my own philosophy that I don't want to be the smartest one in the room. Bush stated, "By reaching out I learned that you can learn a lot by listening to someone else. It mattered when it came time to find common ground." As a CEO, I could not agree more with his statement. Only by listening to others can you truly create an executable vision and strategy that will ensure success.
The second keynote on day one included Footlocker CEO Ken Hicks. Wearing a pair of Nikes with his suit, Hicks hit on just how demanding the consumer has become. They are demanding because today's consumer is connected and educated. Hicks was spot-on when he stated, "The customer may enter the store knowing more about the product than the sales associate. You have to be flexible and you have to be aware of what is going on." Indeed, the consumer is educated, making it even more important to utilize today's tools and technology to listen and react to what the consumer is saying.
First Insight at NRF – Big Ideas and Breakout Session
As our Big Idea room began to fill before our panel discussion, "How Do You Successfully Price and Forecast NEW Products with No Sales History?" I was amazed at the diversity of the attendees. Retailers, solution providers, equity analysts, professors and students from around the world came to hear our panel speak.
I asked Mindy Meads, CEO of Calypso, and former CEO of several major brands including Aeropostale and Lands' End, about new, alternative solutions to introducing new products. "If you are a really smart merchant you're going to get some help when you can," she stated. "First Insight has created the algorithms that allow you to improve your track record in deciding what are the top 1, 2, and 3 in the assortment."
Regarding the importance of optimal opening price points and buy quantity optimization, she stated:"[First Insight] can also help you figure out what price, the optimum price for those new items. I think many times out there we are promoting and don't need to go so low to get through the season. And the next big one is how do you buy each item. I think that to me is the interesting thing that First Insight can provide."
TPG Capital Senior Advisor and former Collective Brands and Cole Haan CEO Matt Rubel spoke about tools and big data that enable retailers to speak to the customer and, more importantly, understand them. He commented, "The confluence of big data and what's going on today and what people want to do to understand their consumer is something that has created big wins over the past 5-7 years."
Matt went on to talk about the speed in which testing new products can be done compared to previous approaches to in-store testing. "The new tools enable us to go out digitally, to set the environment up, to tell the story, to show the garment, to show the shoe, to show the idea and to show it against its competitive set and then to price it. And to play things quite dynamically so in real time what you used to have to spend months to do you now can do in a matter of days and weeks."
Matt concluded by stating, "There are ways to go about testing what this tool will add to really go in conjunction with the other tools you have. So for me (First Insight) is another great enabler and something we all should embrace very thoughtfully."
You can watch the Big Idea session by clicking this link.
During our Breakout Session on Tuesday, our CMO Jim Shea moderated a panel discussion with Helzberg Diamonds and Vera Bradley, where these retailers discussed their experiences and success in applying big data and predictive analytics to fashion.
Scott Steever from Vera Bradley discussed how they used the First Insight platform to add a level of actionable data to their plan to enter a new market, baby products, in which they had no prior sales history to work from. You can read more about the process and their success here.
I also had the opportunity to attend the 24th annual Financo CEO forum on Monday night, where I heard some excellent comments and ideas on how brands need to adapt, maximize opportunities with their customers and control their own destinies in order to be successful in today's retail environment. My favorite quote of the evening came from Marigay McKee, the new president of Saks Fifth Avenue. Moderating a panel discussion that included Tommy Hilfiger and Andrew Rosen, CEO of Theory, the question was posed as to whether they thought Amazon would be a credible player in the fashion space in 10 years. Ms. McKee responded, "The successful companies in the future online will be ones who understand how to engage with the consumer, how to talk to them and how to give them what they want. You can't possibly be living in the world of discounts. It's not what makes the magic happen."
This statement sums up my thought mentioned at the beginning of this post: It's not about retail. It's about people. I encourage us all to engage them, to listen to them and to seek to understand them…that is what technology enables.
As my 2013 Thanksgiving began to wind down, my thoughts turned to the many conversations and articles written about stores opening on Thanksgiving Day. The buzz around turkey-day openings was much louder than last year. Will shoppers come on Thanksgiving? Will the business cover the cost of being open? Will the tryptophan wear off in time to get me off the couch? But as I wrote in an article on Forbes.com last year titled, "Are Retailers Cannibalizing Black Friday," Sears, Target, Toys R Us and many other retailers opened Thanksgiving Day, so the practice is nothing new.
However, this year, even more stores opened their doors early, including Macy's who, for the first time in 155 years, opened their doors on Thanksgiving. For all intents and purposes, Black Friday wasn't just cannibalized, it was devoured. In its place was a weeklong extravaganza that finds Thanksgiving Day/Evening, Black Friday Weekend and Cyber Monday all rolled into one big, confusing promotional free-for-all.
The Game has Changed
With Black Friday now fading from view and replaced with this promotional, days-long extravaganza, the traditional approach to measuring the success or failure of Black Friday is no longer valid. Why? There are several factors that make year-over-year comparisons invalid this time around.
First, rather than the one-day, Black Friday event, consumers saw five consecutive days of promotional activity which took the wind out of the Black Friday sails. Second, Thanksgiving fell one week later than last year, shortening the sales window between Black Friday and Christmas. And finally, a rare, once-in-a-lifetime event occurred where Thanksgiving and the first night of Hanukkah overlapped. The last time this happened was 1888. The result was Christmas shoppers with less time to find the perfect Snuggie or gift card, and for those who celebrate Hanukkah, pressure to complete shopping before the 28th. As a result, retailers needed to prepare for the fluctuations in shopping patterns.
The numbers
Here are some statistics from this year's Thanksgiving and Black Friday:
First, the good news about the entire Thanksgiving/Black Friday Period:
However, on Black Friday itself, the news was not as good:
It's no surprise that sales are roughly flat to slightly up in brick and mortar stores, and online purchases continue to climb sharply. It's also no surprise that Thanksgiving traffic and sales caused Black Friday numbers to decline.
But I'd like to share some different numbers that, from my perspective, tell a different story about the relationship between retailers and their customers.
Outside the Usual Numbers
Much like stores that start playing Christmas music earlier and earlier each year, the "Holiday" shopping "starting line" continues to move back each year as well (for the record, I was in a store in early September and heard "Jingle Bells"). This year, according to a NRF survey in November, 53.8% of shoppers said they started their Christmas shopping in October. Truth be told, with today's connected consumer, there is no starting line and for that matter, no finish line.
In addition, according to MasterCard Advisors, 70% of purchases made by consumers during this time were made in the first two stores they visited on that day.
Consumers are on a Mission
It has become evident that, not just during the holiday season but year round, consumers are focused on finding the best value for their dollar. With holidays, it doesn't matter when they get the great deal, as long as they get a great deal. And retailers don't care when consumers make their purchases in the last quarter, just so long as they make them.
That's why the importance of optimal pricing "outside" of the holiday season is so critical in today's retail world. When consumers feel like they have received a great value in the spring or summer from a particular retailer, they will be much more inclined to start there during the holidays.
Retailers that have taken a proactive, strategic approach to ensure the right products at the right price are on the shelf are the ones reaping the rewards and making investors happy.
The bottom line: Delivering products people want at the right price, outside of the holiday season, is the way to win during the holiday season and turn the retailers into the black sooner than "Black Friday"….Opening on Thanksgiving? I can take it or leave it.
The WWD Apparel and Retail CEO Summit in New York last week was as high-energy as ever. This was my third Summit, and the speakers and sessions were dynamic, insightful and, as promised, "transformational." The theme this year was how retailers are transforming their businesses to meet the challenges and opportunities of the digital age.
I also had the opportunity to address the audience at lunch on the first day. I told the story of walking into my 10-year-old son's room the previous weekend and seeing a card on his dresser. It said: "If you're the smartest person in the room, you're in the wrong room." I told the audience: "Based on the speakers we have heard from so far, I am clearly in the right room."
While all the sessions were compelling, a few stood out to me. The first was a presentation by Dr. Sydney Finkelstein from Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business entitled Why People Don't Learn. Finkelstein talked about how intuition based on experience can be an executive's worst enemy in times of major change and flux. "Many of us rely on our intuition based on our experience," Finkelstein said. "When we're confronted with new situations that are really different, it is possible that our experience can hurt us rather than help us, and that goes completely against the grain of how most people think about experience."
"All of us have a natural tendency to overgeneralize from small sample sizes," he continued. "So if you've done something once and it worked well, we tend to believe that we can do the same thing again."
Just a few hours earlier, Eric Wiseman, CEO of VF Corporation, told the audience that he had personally made a $20 million mistake in Japan. I wonder how many of us would have the confidence to explain to a room full of our peers that we made a big mistake and that it took someone else with a different experience set to fix it? It is interesting that Finkelstein was talking to a room full of fashion executives, many of whom have relied on their experience and intuition in, among other things, designing and selecting new fashion products. I could not help but think that Sydney was opening their minds to using other approaches.
Terry Lundgren, CEO of Macy's, talked about Macy's strategy for growth going forward.
When asked about pricing and promotions, Lundgren said: "You've got to start with the product the customer wants."
"We forecast what customers are going to want six or eight months from now. They identify fashion trends. They have zeroed in on this Millennial customer, and they are right. This is hard, and that is our business — trying to understand what the customer is going to want next season, and it's not necessarily what sold last season. In fact, it's rarely what sold last season. That's forever the challenge of our business."
"You can have the most beautiful stores, but if you don't have the right product, it doesn't matter." A long-time merchant, Lundgren knows that consumers buy products they want, and where and how they buy them is secondary.
One of the new speakers this year was Nick Robertson, CEO of UK-based Asos.com, the world's fastest-growing online retailer. Asos has over 20 million unique visits a day and is targeting consumers in their twenties. Over the next few years, Robertson sees the business growing to the point where it is evenly split between men and women. He's targeting this age demographic since Asos knows young people are spending their money online. For this age group, in fact, they have found that 40% of their fashion budget is spent online. By the way, Asos is now approaching £1Billion in revenues without brick-and-mortar stores, selling both private brand and branded product.
The most interesting part of Robertson's presentation was his discussion of the rise of "fashion democracy." For the next generation, he said it will no longer be about what is presented to them on the "High Street."
"The High Street's presence is being democratized. Twentysomethings have better things to do than go to the High Street. The world's largest brand is in their pocket [via a mobile device]."
This is so true. My 21 year-old daughter does not know of a life without air conditioning, power windows on a car, the internet or a cell phone.
Robertson knows that with technology today, consumers will have an active voice in the products that are offered, and this is already influencing Asos' assortments.
Overall the WWD Summit was an action-packed two days and has given all of us a lot to think about as we go back to running our businesses. I look forward to your comments and questions.
Greg PetroPresident and CEOFirst Insight, Inc.
In the first two parts of this series, I discussed how the successful convergence of science and art could produce great things. From winning baseball teams to Hollywood blockbusters, industries that have previously shunned technology have seen the enormous value that science and analytics bring to the art of creating innovative ideas and solutions.
As a former retail merchant turned supply chain executive, I have witnessed first-hand the evolution of technology in retail and the positive impact it can have on product selection and forecasting. Walmart, for example, has demonstrated this as it has grown to become the world's largest retailer through supply chain excellence and technology adoption.
As a retailer, you take risks every day and every season on new products. Your intuition has served you well to get to where you are, but you are one person. As your company grows, how do you scale this capability? And just as importantly, how do you SUSTAIN it? Isn't that what Wall Street analysts ask every day?
What about those retailers and manufacturers which have not been as successful? What tools are available to help them get on track or help sharpen the competitive edge?
How can you improve your batting average or box office success?
Today, retail executives have access to tools that inject science into the art of design and merchandising. Most of these tools use historical data on existing products to attempt to build forecast models for new products - pricing, inventory optimization, etc. So the idea of using science in retail is not new, but the practice of using historical data to predict new products is, well… history.
First Insight is different. Our solution gathers real-time, forward-looking data on new products. We do this by engaging consumers online, capturing their point of view on a product's value, applying predictive analytics and giving retailers a forward-looking view on how the market will respond to each new product.
Don't believe it's possible?
Let's take a few minutes and explore a couple of real world examples: Vera Bradley and David's Bridal.
In 2012, Vera Bradley was preparing to enter a new product category (Baby). Because it was an entirely new category, they did not know the prices the new products would bear in the market. Utilizing First insight enabled real-time feedback on which products to select and how to price them. Prices were increased on products recommended by the First Insight solution, and the result was an overall increase of 4% in sales above the original plan.
David's Bridal, the largest and fastest growing bridal retailer in the world, was looking for a way to shorten their time-to-market with new gowns.
The entire product introduction cycle was 8½ months and their forecast accuracy was below 50%. The biggest single time constraint was in-store testing, which took approximately 3 months to complete from design to sample delivery in stores.
Utilizing the First Insight solution, they reduced their in-store testing cycle from 3 months to one week. They also found one of their best-selling gowns of all time through the First Insight solution, which gave them the confidence to more than double the buy. Sales of the dress were 120% of what they originally expected.
You wouldn't drive a car looking out the rear-view mirror, so why run your business looking only at historical data?
Putting it all together
Vera Bradley and David's Bridal are just two examples of fashion companies that have coupled the art of design with the science of product selection and pricing. The science is not a replacement for the art of the merchant or designer - it is an enabler that gives support to their decisions. Trust your instincts and verify with data.
The result: more winning products at the right price points. And bigger bonuses for the merchants.
Baseball… Hollywood… and now Retail. The time is now for data-driven decision-making. Why not see if you can tip the odds in your favor?
The confluence of science and art has created some of the most significant achievements in architecture, music, sports, and even business. In part 1 of this series, I discussed the connection between science and art in the world of baseball. In part 2, I will explore the approach some major Hollywood studios are taking to incorporate data into the art of filmmaking.Similar to baseball, Hollywood movie production companies risk billions of dollars each year on hundreds of movies across all genres. Very few are blockbusters; many are duds and lose money, and the rest fall somewhere in between. Combining a good script with an "A" list celebrity does not guarantee success. Yet for decades, this was the accepted formula for increasing the odds of producing a winning movie.
As with baseball, Hollywood is an industry steeped in tradition, and the pervasive thinking is that movie production is an art form. However, with sophisticated investors looking to balance risk and return, "big data" and analytics have found their way into the "back lot".
So how are Hollywood studios embracing technology to be more profitable and successful? Data and analytics are now being used in two areas: script development and marketing for both movies and T.V. series.
Script writing has long been an artistic craft which many have attempted while only a few have succeeded. Thousands of scripts have made it to the big screen, and the outcomes of these movies are now known (i.e. blockbuster, dud, or break-even). Interestingly, each script can actually be broken down into hundreds of attributes. This is an analyst's dream – a repository of millions of data points and a known set of outcomes. How does someone draw conclusions on potential success or failure of a movie script based on all of this data?
Enter Epagogix, a predictive analytics company that places valuations on plot points like car chases, love scenes, location and quirky sidekicks. These factors are scored according to a directory in the way a teacher scores a test. The scores are fed into a computer, predictive analytics are applied and a calculation of how much the movie will make is determined.
In addition, insight is gained on where changes could be made to increase the earning potential, such as changing the setting or scaling back a role.
The solution was used by a major Hollywood studio to forecast the revenue of 16 new TV shows that would be airing in approximately 3 months. Epagogix analyzed all 16 pre-season trailers to gain insight on their potential success. The shows aired and of the 16, the Epagogix solution nailed 14 of them with regards to viewership and ad revenue.
One Hollywood studio exec said about the solution, "You're like card counters in Vegas. If you can help us miss just one turkey a year, that would be immense. "
Another area where analytics are being used in the film making business is in marketing.
The typical marketing budget for a feature film is half of the production budget. If the budget is $100 million, $50 million goes towards the marketing effort to fill the seats in the theater. But as is often the case, the production company simply doesn't know who their audience is or what it could be. The model is antiquated and ineffective in most instances.
One company that is changing the way filmmakers market their art is FilmBreak. Essentially a virtual film studio, FilmBreak empowers filmmakers to actively build, engage, and monetize their online audience. Prior to release, filmmakers can quickly and easily promote their films through social media, build a fan base, and incentivize fans to support their films by offering access to exclusive content, live stream video chats and production updates, as an example.
FilmBreak helps filmmakers figure out who their audience is and learn about their taste profiles. The data they collect helps them optimize their marketing effort so their marketing dollars can go further.
Similar to baseball, rather than using data to take away from the creative magic of screenwriters which has been trusted for decades, the goal is to make the production more merit-driven based on verified information, not on somebody's opinion or connections.
So far we have explored the practical applications of combining science and art outside of the retail industry. In my final post in this series, I will discuss how the right mix of science and art is changing the way retailers design and select new fashion products, mitigating the risks of new product introductions.
Part 1 - Moneyball
Left-brain vs. right brain. Logic vs. emotion. Science vs. art. For centuries, we have assigned people and their thought processes into one category or another. But does is it really need to be one or the other?
There are many examples throughout history of how artistic talents have been married with specific scientific skills to solve complex problems and create wonderful things: the great pyramids, the works of da Vinci, the Roman Coliseum, Machu Picchu and the Pantheon are just a few. The most successful people, cultures and business have found the right mix of the two.
In modern times there are equally impressive examples of the marriage of science and art. In this three part series I will explore this dynamic across several industries, concluding of course with my favorite – Retail. By the end I hope you will agree with me that the most money can be made when applying science to artistic endeavors.
My fellow merchants – Please stick with me as I present this topic and set the stage for the next generation of science and art in retail. It will be well worth the read.
First let's start with baseball.
Suppose you ask a friend how much change they have in their pocket and they respond, "eight coins." Would you think you had learned much about the exact amount in their pocket?
Compare this to determining a player's batting average where you divide the number of base hits by the total number at bats. Does this tell you much about what actually happens on the field? In other words, it doesn't tell you how the baseball team scores runs, gets outs and wins games.
In both examples, the measurements do not answer the real question being asked. In these questions lie the foundation of sabermetric thought.
Popularized through the book Moneyball and later in the movie starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane, the term "sabermetrics" is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for Society for American Baseball Research.
Baseball is, and always has been, a numbers game. Since its birth in 1845, baseball and numbers have been inseparable. Baseball has also tried very hard to maintain its "old school" mentality when it comes to changing rules or processes for the betterment of the game. For example, we still have umpires making judgment calls on balls and strikes when a computer could easily make accurate calls instantaneously.
Each year, teams invest millions of dollars in players –both new draft picks and free agents –at the risk of one or many of them not performing up to the level needed to win. For the first 150 years of baseball, scouts would look at the traditional statistics – batting averages, RBIs, stolen bases and ERAs – used to determine the potential for each player and a corresponding dollar amount they were worth.
So it came as no surprise that when the sabermetrics concept started to gain traction in the world of baseball, the traditionalists were not impressed. For many, there is no reason to view the game through such a complicated lens. They felt the game should be experienced and analyzed as it always has been, and reducing the game to a binary code would detract from the true essence of baseball.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the ballpark.
The merging of science and art is often born out of the need to solve a problem. For the Oakland A's in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the problem was money. Under new leadership, the team salary was slashed to a level that gave the A's the third lowest payroll at approximately $40 million. In contrast, the Yankees were at the top at $126 million. With no salary cap, how does a team at the bottom of the payroll ladder compete against a team at the top?
Enter Billy Beane and sabermetrics.
Beane, a former player and now VP and General Manager of the Oakland A's, studied and adopted the concepts behind sabermetrics in an effort to find value in players that would have otherwise been passed up. Beane applied predictive models to non-traditional stats like on-base percentage to determine the player's value.
Beane looked under the rug and found value in players who were passed up based on traditional statistics. The result? They reached the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 2000-2003. In 2002 they became the first team in over 100 years to win 20 consecutive games. Given that the A's did not significantly increase their payroll during this period, I'd say this was a very successful, non-traditional use of statistics to solve a challenging problem.
The model used by the A's has now been adopted throughout baseball. However, even though analytics were brought into the process to validate the scouting, the scout is still trusted for his role in identifying candidate new players who could be a fit for the team and its culture – which is more of an art. It is this blend of art and science that has been adopted throughout baseball.
The end result is efficiency - identifying more "diamonds in the rough" and fewer busts. At First Insight, we apply a very similar process to finding winning products for the retail industry. The designer and merchant are experts in the art of setting trends and identifying candidate new products. First Insight adds the science of predictive modeling to determine which items will be the winners and how to price them.
In my next post, I will look at how Hollywood has adopted a similar approach – applying science to the artful craft of movie making.
For the quarter ending July 2013, Thomson Reuters put the average comp sales gain among reporting retailers at 1.9%, which is relatively flat compared to Q2 2012. Here are Q2 comps reported from several retailers:
Top performers for the quarter included home improvement stores which are benefitting from a stronger housing market. Leading the way were Home Depot, up 6.9% and Lowe's, up 5.3%.
Department stores saw smaller gains with an average comp increase of 2.6% across the category, with Nordstrom on top at 6.7%.
And although purely an online play, Amazon continues its upward momentum. Online sales still make up a small percentage of overall sales, but the upward trend in e-commerce is having a stronger impact on revenue for those retailers which have put their full weight behind e-commerce vs. those which have not committed to an omni-channel strategy.
That said, why are some companies increasing comp store sales and others are not?
First, let's consider the metric of Comp Store Sales.
Why Comp Store Sales?
Year-over-year comp store sales is the de facto measurement used to track retail growth as it eliminates incremental new store sales and accounts for seasonality.
But to increase comp store sales, at least one of two key factors must increase: store traffic and/or the conversion rate of shoppers.
As I read through the spate of disappointing earnings, particularly among teen retailers, one element was consistently cited as a contributing factor to poor earnings and comp store sales: store traffic. Yet, according to ShopperTrak, shopper traffic in retail stores and malls was up 6.9% in May 2013 vs. May 2012, flat in June 2013 vs. June 2012 and down 2.3% in July 2013 vs. July 2012. Although traffic is starting to trend downward, it is not as precipitous as the downward comp sales trend reflected in recent earnings calls.
If in fact mall and store traffic is declining, what can retailers do to increase comp store sales?
The answer is simple. Convert more of the customers that are coming into the store into paying customers. After all, not all retailers announced declining comps for Q2, so some are clearly converting at a higher rate and are gaining share.
Although conversions are critical, according to Retail Customer Experience, only 35% of retailers track conversion rates in their brick-and-mortar stores. Calculating conversion rate is simple: Divide sales transactions by the number of people that came into the store. If you count 200 people coming into the store and 100 transactions, your conversion rate would be 50%.
Poor conversion rates can be attributed to a number of factors including inadequate staffing and long lines at the checkout counters. However, the two primary contributing factors to low conversion rates are out-of-stocks and poor merchandising. If you don't have enough of the winning products, or never had the right products to begin with, your conversion rate will always suffer.
Turning traffic into conversions
Understanding why people don't buy is difficult to ascertain. However, it is clear that many customers are leaving without buying because the store simply didn't have the products they valued.
Adjusting inventories to reduce out-of-stocks and filling the floor with the right products is no longer a guessing game. It can be done in near real-time to impact existing products and to make future buying and merchandising decisions.
First Insight can help you understand how to run your business in anticipation of what the market is going to do…not to react to what's already happened.
When you think like your customers by listening to them, more of the traffic will convert from browsers to buyers.
© 2014 First Insight, Inc. 1606 Carmody Court, Suite 106 Sewickley, PA 15143-8566p: 724-759-7141f: 724-759-7498e: firstname.lastname@example.com


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Congradulation to BSP and CFL for making the 2014 Business House Basketball Competition Finals. The Finals will be played at USP Gym on Thursday 24th April 2014 at 7.15pm.
Kids Clinic this Saturday @ Ed's Court, Raiwaqa
Comment Guidelines: The SportingPulse Network is made up of players, families and passionate sports followers like you who have a strong opinion about sport. That's great - we want you to have your say and share your thoughts with the world. However, we have a few rules that you must follow to keep it fun for all. Please don't be rude, abusive, swear or vilify others. Apart from some pretty serious sport sanctions, we also can ban you and report you if things get out of hand. So play fair and have fun, and thanks for your contribution.

subset: commoncrawl


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Cancer Health Center
Clinical Management of BRCA Mutation Carriers
As noted above, there is a growing indication that women with BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations who are treated conservatively have an increased, not decreased, rate of ipsilateral breast cancer, occurring usually after 5 years of follow-up.
The second concern stems from the emerging understanding of the role of the BRCA genes in DNA repair activities within the cell, and the implication of the loss of these functions for radiation hypersensitivity. Both BRCA1 and BRCA2 are involved in DNA double-strand break repair, and loss of function in these genes could potentially accelerate the rate of cell kill caused by ionizing radiation. Another potentially relevant mechanism is the defect in the G2-M phase checkpoint displayed by BRCA1-deficient cells, which also alters radiation sensitivity.[265] Furthermore, murine models of Brca1- and Brca2-deficient mice have demonstrated evidence of hypersensitivity to ionizing radiation.[21,266] Clinical manifestations of these findings could include the following:
- An increased response to adjuvant radiation therapy with a decrease of in-breast recurrence rates.
- An increase in ipsilateral and contralateral breast cancers secondary to genetic instability.
- An increase in radiation-related toxicity.
In one study, the rate of local recurrence among women with strong family histories who were treated with lumpectomy was highest when radiation was omitted, suggesting that these tumors are radiosensitive.[258] Rates of contralateral disease are consistently elevated in this population, but are equal for women treated with conservative therapy and for those who chose mastectomy without radiation, indicating that the increased risk is due to the mutation, not the exposure to radiation. And finally, studies have failed to find an increase in either early acute radiation tissue reactions or late radiation reactions to the skin, underlying tissue or bone.[267,268,269]
These data are consistent with a model in which hereditary BRCA1/BRCA2 cancers are sterilized by radiation therapy equally well, but due to the underlying genetic predisposition, the increased risk of second primaries in the treated breast remains. The findings of a significantly increased risk of contralateral breast cancer in this population is consistent across studies, and increasingly women with BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations are considering bilateral mastectomy at the time of first diagnosis of breast cancer, regardless of stage. Finally, there is no evidence for an increase in radiation toxicity among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers.
Level of evidence: 3di
Second malignancies
Contralateral breast cancer in BRCA mutation carriers
As early as 1995, the Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium estimated the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) in BRCA1 mutation carriers to be as high as 60% by age 60 years.[270] This report has been followed by several retrospective studies of various cohorts of women with hereditary patterns of breast cancer in both the United States and Europe. One retrospective cohort study reviewed the records of 91 AJ women diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 42 years, 30 of whom had a deleterious BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation.[271] At a median follow-up of 63 months, the rate of CBC was 40% in the mutation carriers compared with 8.2% among noncarriers. Carriers had a shorter median interval between cancers than noncarriers (36 months vs. 63.9 months). The same group reported 5-, 10-, and 15-year probabilities of CBC of 11.9%, 37.6% and 53.2%, respectively, among 87 mutation carriers.[261] Rates of CBC in this clinical cohort did not differ by mutation type (BRCA1 vs. BRCA2) or by age at first diagnosis. A case-control study from the Netherlands compared rates of CBC between 49 women with BRCA1-related breast cancer and 196 breast cancer cases not known to have a BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation (sporadic controls).[225] At 5 years of follow-up, rates of CBC were 20.4% among mutation carriers versus 5.6% among the controls. In an expanded cohort of BRCA1-related breast cancer patients, the risk of CBC was inversely correlated with age at first diagnosis, with the majority of cases of CBC occurring among women whose first breast cancer was diagnosed at or before age 50 years.[272] A similar analysis matching 28 BRCA2 mutation-positive cases with 112 sporadic controls found a five-fold increase in CBC among cases (25% vs. 4.5%).[273] A larger study of members of BRCA1/BRCA2 families in the Netherlands reported similar 10-year risks of CBC for women from BRCA1 and BRCA2 families (34.2% and 29.2%).[274] In another study, 127 patients with early-onset breast cancer (aged ?42 years) who had been treated with breast-conserving therapy, were genotyped for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. At a median follow-up of 12 years, the rate of contralateral breast cancer among the 22 mutation-positive patients was 42% compared with 9% in the noncarriers.[228] A similar analysis from the Institut Curie in Paris reported a rate of CBC of 37% among mutation carriers compared with 7.3% in noncarriers at a median follow-up of 8.75 years.[275]
WebMD Public Information from the National Cancer Institute


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Alumni & Friends
Alumni News
Class Notes
Submit a class note to share your career changes and promotions, business and community recognitions, and wedding and birth announcements with your fellow alumni. Class notes appear on the alumni website and are published in the Alumni and Friends Magazine.
Alumni Benefit: 10% Discount at the Bookstore
The Campus Bookstore has an array of sweatshirts, caps, glassware, diploma frames and other merchandise to show your Charger pride. Present your alumni card at the Bookstore or call 203-933-4000 to order directly and receive a 10 percent discount off apparel or gifts. Discount does not apply to online orders.
Social Media
Class Notes
Cheshire residents Michelle Leveille '08 and Joe Leveille are proud to announce the birth of their first child, Mckayla Catherine. She was born on March 31, and weighed 7 lbs. 3 oz. and was 19 ½ inches.Michelle Leveille '08
Shelton residents Travis B. Arnette '07 M.P.A. and Kimberly Arnette are proud to announce the birth of their son, Travis B. Arnette, Jr. He was born on March 20, 2012 and welcomed by big sister Taylor.Travis B. Arnette '07 M.P.A.
Kimberly and Travis celebrated their marriage on February 12, 2011, at the Villa Bianca in Seymour. The couple currently resides in Shelton.Travis B. Arnette '07 M.P.A.
Lee Boyd '04 M.A., of North Haven, has been appointed assistant director of online admissions for QU Online at Quinnipiac University. Boyd is responsible for recruiting and assisting prospective students through the online graduate admissions process and addressing students' questions and concerns.Lee Boyd '04 M.A.
Massapequa, N.Y., resident Rob Holub '08, '09 M.B.A. has recently accepted the position of visiting instructor in the Kinesiology Department at Valparaiso University. Holub earned a J.D. from Valparaiso University in May 2012.Rob Holub '08, '09 M.B.A.
Bedford, N.H. resident, Terence T. Burton '72, '75 M.S. announced the release of his eighth book about business and improvement. "Out of the Present Crisis: Rediscovering Improvement in the New Economy" will be released June 2012.Terence T. Burton '72, '75 M.S.
Ivoryton resident, Greg Beebe '00 M.B.A. was promoted to president of Senheiser's U.S. operations. Beebe oversees a diverse product base, including headphones, microphones, wireless systems, aviation products and a professional division that caters to Hollywood, Broadway and the television industry.Greg Beebe '00 M.B.A.
Frank Alvarado '08 E.M.B.A., an East Haven resident, has become the newest addition to the United States Small Business Administration of Connecticut's staff. Alvarado was previously the director of the New Haven and Willimantic offices of the Spanish American Merchants Association.Frank Alvarado '08 E.M.B.A.


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The Movie-Buff's Blog
VMC - Flash Your Card
Watch our latest ad promoting the all new Village Movie Club!
I Love You Too interview
Watch our exclusive interview with some of the stars and crew of Australia's latest romantic-comedy hit, I Love You Too
Village Drive-In
At Village Drive-In Coburg you can relive the nostalgia of the 50's with the modern technology of today.
He's Just Not That Into You interview
VTV's own Mandy interviews Ginnifer Goodwin and Justin Long, two of the stars of the hit new film, He's Just Not That Into You.
VTV interviews Vince Colosimo for Body Of Lies
Our latest interview with Vince Colosimo, who stars alongside Leonardo Di Caprio and Russell Crowe and the hit new action/thriller, Body Of Lies.


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From the innovators at Vanguard® comes the DropDown Shooting Stick... enables effortless height control and lightning-fast setup so you'll never miss a shot. Simply press the safety button, then adjust the height to your needs. It's that easy! DropDown also allows you to adjust height while the firearm is rested on the yoke, keeping your focus intact.
No leg locks to fuss with during the moment of truth. It's is extremely versatile, too, with a Picatinny Rail quick shoe for ultra-fast attachment to tactical rifles. Boasts a button safety lock, strong 24 mm-wide tube legs and a BONUS shotgun barrel yoke.
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Vanguard® DropDown M32 Monopod Shooting Stick
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This board will be used for official Nokia announcements related to Nokia X. We encourage you to post app development questions to stackoverflow.com using the tag "nokiax".
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TALLAHASSEE -- With the college football regular season now complete and the coaching carousel beginning to spin, other teams could potentially look to the Florida State coaching staff to fill vacancies.
Defensive coordinator Mark Stoops' name already has been unofficially linked to Kentucky.
On Monday, coach Jimbo Fisher was asked whether he had any interest in the Auburn vacancy or any other openings around the country.
"I'm very happy right here. I'm content to be here, this is where I want to be," Fisher said. "We're building something special. We've got great players. We've got great players to come and be here. It's a great place to live, my family is set up in this community, and I plan on being here a long time.
"[Of course] they may walk in and say, 'I don't want you to be the coach no more.' I mean to say you're never going to move in this business as a coach, you can't say that — it's inevitable. There's too many things that go on, but I'm very happy. I'm very content. I want to be here."
ACC honors
The Atlantic Coast Conference announced its All-Conference team Monday, and it was littered with Seminoles. Kicker Dustin Hopkins; defensive ends Bjoern Werner and Tank Carradine; cornerback Xavier Rhodes (Miami Norland); and safety Lamarcus Joyner (Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas) made first team.
Quarterback EJ Manuel; running back Chris Thompson; offensive linemen Cam Erving, Tre Jackson and Bryan Stork; defensive tackle Everrett Dawkins; and linebacker Christian Jones were second team. Offensive tackle Menelik Watson; defensive tackles Anthony McCloud and Tim Jernigan; and linebacker Vince Williams received honorable mentions. In all, 16 Seminoles were honored.
Clearing his head
It's possible Manuel misspoke when asked about what kind of tests trainers administered to him on the sideline after taking a brutal helmet-to-helmet hit late in the game against Florida, but he seemed unclear as to exactly what transpired.
"I think they went through something, some preliminary tests, and I was able to pass them and go back in there and play," Manuel said. "So, whatever test they did do, I don't know for sure, but I passed it, so I was able to go back and play."
Manuel missed a series before re-entering the game in the fourth quarter.
Carradine tore his ACL late in Saturday's loss to Florida. The senior defensive end had recorded 80 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 11 sacks on the season before going down late in the fourth quarter.
"He's sad and he's down because he can't be with his teammates," Fisher said. "But I mean, from the NFL, if it gets [the surgery] done cleanly, which we think it will be and be fine, he'll still play in the NFL and be very highly drafted."


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I know the OW and we have done activities together with her and her husband and other co-workers. The OW admitted to WH that she is having trouble in her marriage. Red flag! Now, WH and her text message a lot. I know they go to lunch a lot and have gone to dinners a few times. I called him out on the text thing a few times (when I saw the bill and the phone was constantly going off in the evenings). The texting isn't happening as often, but it is still happening. They IM each other in the evenings and at work. He says they are good friends and everything is professional.
Last week, we went out with his co-workers (OW was there). WH drank a lot. OW did not drink much and neither did I. WH kept going on how frustrated he was at work. I didn't know things were that frustrating at work. OW said he's frustrated and I shouldn't be too worried. Interesting how some things come out when you drink. This weekend, we are attending a St. Patrick's day celebration with his co-workers. OW will be there.
WH sometimes is distant and won't talk much. He still says he loves me, cuddles me and we are still intimate and we do things every weekend. There is a wall up at times between us, and it sucks.
I've had my own issues with being unemployed (I was laid off) and feeling sad at times. However, I've made some changes and am focusing on myself. It's a battle everyday, but I'm slowly getting by. I'm just keeping my eyes open...
[This message edited by snowboardgirl at 4:21 PM, March 11th (Wednesday)]
Just be careful --- good time for you and your husband to work on your relationship because this OW is danger!
The OW and I aren't close. WH says she likes me and says we are friends. I don't consider her a friend because I really don't know her. Since we've socialized as a group last week and will be this weekend, maybe I will feel a bit better about things.
On the way there, I mentioned to him that I think her telling him about her marriage problems was a red flag. He claims everyone knows. I proceed to tell him that I hope he talks to me first if we have problems. *silence*
I had a good time, but he was flirting with her too at times. I hated it. However, he flirted with me and was all over me. I guess he wants it both ways, eh? I even saw them texting while we were getting some food. Ugh.
We went home early because we were really tired. The text messaging happened again this evening. Ughhhhhhhhh.
[This message edited by snowboardgirl at 11:34 AM, March 15th (Sunday)]
I also dread Mondays. The weekends can be great, then Sunday night rolls around and I'll find myself sliding back down. He has been wanting to find a new job in a different field that he's been wanting to work in, but financially we both know it wouldn't make sense right now since he would have to take a paycut, as well as how the current economy is. We're about to close escrow too, so we definitely need the steady income right now.
He does what he can to reassure me that he's not giving up on us (again) and that he has faith in us. But while I'm at work, my mind just gets the best of me sometimes and I'm constantly thinking...what are they doing, what are they talking about, etc. So he'll have done nothing and I'll still get in a funky mood. And I'll just pray for Friday to come faster. I'm hoping for that day where I can come to work and not feel this way again. I know it will, too :)
Gotta stay positive!
[This message edited by LiveYourLife at 10:24 AM, March 18th (Wednesday)]
Need advice from WH working with AP
My WH is still in regular contact with AP on professional level. He's been very good with recovery efforts after a bumpy start.
Recently, AP texted 'miss you'. He did tell me without being prompted- big step!
He volunteered to reiterate NC. But when he had the 'let's keep that door closed' conversation, he let her stick a foot in to prop it open, arranging meeting that would mean just the two of them alone. He now says that he can be firm with her. How can I believe that when he clearly wasn't able to be firm about closing that door?
I feel like a nothing all over again. Why was it more important to avoid conflict with her or to preserve her dignity over my feelings or his promise to stick to business?
After 7 months of dealing with all of this, I'm just tired of it all. I realise that it is difficult for him to strike the right balance between NC and working relationship, but I feel like I walk that tightrope too...
How do other WS deal with this?
I love him for that cos he loves what he does.. And it shows that he wamts to be away from her????
However, he is sending me mixed messages about whether WE will survive this (a whole diffrent post)..
Has he done a positive thing for US? Should I cling to the fact that he is leaving there?
you sound just like my life. i just let it all out this weekend. i had enough of her. let her husband know which really caused a big stink but you know what, if my family suffers i think hers should too!
Snow Board and He Lied: big red flags. Better to get the walls and windows reversed now, than have a fill blown PA later.
Dont retreat, reload.
"Pull that knife out of your back - and sever the fuel line to that bus you got thrown under" Bufffalo
I see that you're about two years into this mire. Does your WS still work with AP? Did the AP ever try to resume things with your WS?
My WS does seem genuinely ashamed and remorseful, but took easy option of agreeing to meeting rather than being firm. He has a plan B for sending the message that he only wants to communicate on a professional level. But I don't know if this will stop her trying. I'm not entirely sure he wants her to...
He has been open and honest with me about her inappropriate text. I appreciate that and know it would be far easier if he just 'forgot' to mention any of it. I know he has no control over whether she 'misses him'. But I don't like it. I just wish I knew how to handle this...
Any ideas?
Both WS and I have read Not Just Friends. It helped, and he found it to be a real eye opener.
The trouble is that it doesn't have much practical advice on dealing with AP if you still work together and AP wants to break NC...
When we were all in the same building, thats when the office rumors got started (about 15 years ago). I confronted him, he denied it and I literally hadnt thought anymore about it until July 2008 when my stomach got goosebumps inside and I then felt something was wrong and checked the detailed cell phone bill and it was right there - an affair.
He claims "just friends" only talk. I think fuck friends at her house (she's single and lives alone).
He chose to not be alone because I'm currently stuck with him. He doesnt want a divorce and is NC with her. I think it was a mutual decision between them for NC because I viciously confronted her at work, embarrased the hell out of her and made her cry. She does not want to be the office gossip so she will not speak to WH anymore. His stupid ass kept calling her with her not returning his calls up until January 2009 when I got in his ass about breaking NC and wanting a divorce.
Now he got rid of the secret cell phone, hasnt left the house since the 2nd D-Day and does all the husbandly things around the house.
He's doing all that so I won't put him out like I really want to do. One of these days, freedom for me will be around the corner!!!
"It ain't about love anymore."


text:
N-Photo: the digital photography magazine for Nikon SLR camera users
N-Photo is the fully-interactive monthly practical photography magazine for Nikon digital SLR owners. Whether you want to take better pictures with your Nikon D-SLR, improve any digital photo in Photoshop or Nikon Capture NX 2 or buy the best Nikon-compatible kit, N-Photo has all the advice you need to get the most from your photography. Every tutorial has a live-action video guide to accompany it – you just touch the button or click on the link on the relevant page to play this interactive content! N-Photo is 100% Nikon and 100% independent.
The terms of subscription are 1 month and 1 year and your subscription will start with the latest available issue.
Single issue £4.99 / $6.99 / €5.99
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• You will be charged for renewal within 24 hours prior to the end of the current period, for the same duration and at the current subscription rate for that product
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What's new
This update includes behind the scenes improvements to our app stability and stamps out some pesky bugs.
Don't forget to take advantage of our no obligation 30-day trial. You'll get our latest issue absolutely FREE!
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VestsB002 Pregnant women harness Pregnancy Anti-Radiation Vests camisole
Product Code: VestsB002
Color: Pink / blue / gray
Size ---- pregnancy designs, you can always wear your baby was born on
Model Size Length Chest circumference hem
Metal fibers (30% metal fiber 55% cotton 15% polyester)
Original flexible packaging, certification, state inspection certificate, security labels, brochures
(a) of the radiation protection features: the ability to effectively shield the computers, household appliances and modern office equipment produced by electromagnetic radiation, the user can not be underestimated the protective effect;
(B) far-infrared health functions: the ability to promote and improve the microcirculation of human superficial tissue, and enhance the body's metabolism, the body has a good health care;
(C) retain a natural fabric composition, and ordinary, like the textile fabric, with soft, breathable, comfortable and resistant to washing and so on
Simple and elegant design the best choice for stylish mom
Frequently asked questions in purchasing an radiation protective closing.
Q: I am preparing to have a baby, do I need to wear a radiation protective closing?
A: The well-known medical experts Cheng Huaijin, From Shanghai International Maternity and Child Health Hospital and First Maternity and Infant Health Hospital pointed out that young men and women of childbearing age should start to avoid radiation six month or two years before pregnancy, the time is decided by their exposure to radiation, make a diet of more carrots, tomatoes, kelp, meat, animal liver which are rich in vitamin A, vitamin C and protein foods which can strengthen the body's ability to fight against electromagnetic radiation. If you want to be isolated from electromagnetic radiation, the best way is to be far away from the radiation source, if you cannot be without computers, try to wear radiation protective closing.
Q: How to identify the protective effect of your radiation protective closing.
A: 1. Wrapping your cell phone with your radiation protective closing, then open it, the protective effect would be proved if the signal of the cell phone was reduced. The site where this test take place is very important, place as office room which often equipped with signal increasing device could compromise the test result, place near the signal tower would also compromise the result.
2. Using a mobile phone before the computer screen (except the LCD) or Hi-fi and radios, mobile phones can interfere with electromagnetic waves emitted by computer monitors or stereo / radio, resulting in clutter and noise, if you blocked with a radiation protective closing between the phone and computer or Hi-fi, the clutter and noise would immediately disappear, which indicating that the electromagnetic shielding of radiation protective closing can block out cell phone emitted radiation.
3. Take a small piece of fabric sample which we enclosed with products and set it on fire, check the residue which is not melted, that is the radiation protective fibers. So the more radiation fiber the better. Normal metal radiation protection fiber melt into a metal mesh structure after fire. Nano-silver, silver fiber turning into powder after combustion.
4. Testing the conductivity of clothing: radiation protective fabric are essentially different from ordinary fabrics for having good electrical conductivity..
5. New Hong radiation protective closing is the first brand which certified by the Shenzhen Municipal Quality and Technical Supervision Department, the standard number: Q/XK001-2006, with 12,365 laser anti-counterfeit labels.
6. As a brand that has been developed for 8 years, we did encounter customers having doubt about the above method, you can take our product the nearest radiation detection center for a identification, if it is proved to be ineffective, we are committed to bear all costs!
Q: how's the protective effect of your product, can it shield a cell phone?
A: Many people think that cell phone signal is radiated, so cell phone signals cannot get through cell phone signals should be considered as a radiation effect, which is a completely wrong idea, because mobile phone radiation and cell phone signals are two different things.
1, radiation is the so-called mobile phones, computers and other electrical appliances in the course of outgoing electromagnetic interference which is harmful.
2, The mobile phone signal is a complete different thing, same as TV signal which is very normal civilian signal, there is no harm to humans.
3, As we understand that what we really want to prevent is the radiation emitted electromagnetic interference, rather than the mobile phone signals, so no need to shield signal of the mobile phone.
Q: Can I wash the radiation protective closing?
A: The metal fiber might be ripped by great force, advised consumers to wash less, it is better to use the shower gel to wash it. do not use a washing machine, and do not wring, wash as little as possible. Do not rub it hard and twist.
Q: it can't totally wrap the body without any crevice.
A: In fact radiation is a wave, when this wave of proliferation came to the surface of metal objects it would turn into a electric current, so as to achieve the effect of radiation shielding. Radiation product is this kind of fabric that mixed with metal fiber, they are able to achieve the effect of shielding radiation. The phone signal have a certain characteristic, if you want to block out cell phone signals, it has to be done under the seamless. Cell phone law is just a test package in it, if you use this method of testing is necessary to meet the requirements of its features seamless test. In fact, many ways to test the radiation protection products, in addition to package mobile phone testing method, the other a variety of testing methods do not require testing of seamless state.
Our analogy, the elevator is full metal, in an elevator, the radiation can not penetrate. But the elevator can still get through, because the elevator inside a certain space, so mobile phones can be connected. So if you use the package approach to test mobile phone radiation protection feature, you must meet the prerequisite for his seamless. Other test methods are not the premise.
Q: I bought a radiation protective clothing once, but after a while it's protective effect seems to wear down, is your product like this?
A: Any radiation protective product's function will be decreased by weather, washing, humidity, and we are among them. One layer of shielding material was 99.991% blocking radiation, but after sometime of use, its function might be not able to reach 99.997%. But if the radiation protective closing is good enough and being used in the right circumstances, its radiation shielding rate can still reach 99% after a use time of pregnancy.
Q: why the protective radiation closing not only protect the front, but also the back?
A: In fact, one of our central nervous system which is the main hematopoietic system is in back. Now more and more people are getting leukemia, cancer, which destroyed the hematopoietic system, I'd say, radiation is one of the main cause. Fetus in mother's womb lived on mum' blood, imagine if the radiation damaged the hematopoietic system of mothers, how would it affect the baby.
1. Radiation suit can be washed with water-ordinary neutral liquid detergent or soap, but do not rub, carefully handle the stain.
2. Do not use washing machine;
3. Don't twist and wring.
4. The water temperature should not exceed 40 degrees, the temperature of ironing should not exceed 150 degrees;
5. Don't uset bleach or use detergent containing bleach component;
【The harm of electromagnetic waves on the human body】
1. Dizziness, fatigue, insomnia. Loss of memory, neurasthenia syndrome
2. Cardiovascular disease, hypertension, palpitation, autonomic dysfunction.
3. Miscarriage, fetal malformations, chromosomal aberrations.
4, the female menstrual cycle disorder, male sexual function loss, hair loss or hair.
5. Leukemia (especially more dangerous for children), cancer, and harm the body's immune system.
Please identify your working environment before purchase
【 Common sources of radiation】
1, computer, TV, stereo, microwave ovens, refrigerators and other appliances;
2, mobile phones, fax machines, microwave communications, and other communications equipment;
3, in the air as the high-voltage wire spider web, motor, electrical equipment;
4, aircraft, electric railway, engine room, electrical equipment industry
5, radio, television transmission tower, transmitting paging base station. Radar systems.
6, electronic medical equipment, stock exchange, banking, telecommunications, computer outlets, satellite ground stations, command centers.
Xin Kang radiation protective closing have below types
1, the metal fiber series: after a complicated process, rare metal turning into a kind of rare alloy which has been changed in molecular level, makes a lot of bare positive charge attached to the metal fiber. The closing is also extremely flexible, mixed with cotton, linen, polyester, silk wool and other textile fibers. It is the most popular radiation protective clothing fabrics.
2, Silver Fiber Series: silver has the most effective anti-microbial performance. Radiation closing made of silver fiber fabric is the most advanced radiation protective technology after the debut of metal fiber series, silver fiber ones can be radiation protective, antibacterial, and dirty free, is the ideal fabric for radiation protective closing making. Its function is stronger than metal fiber fabrics..
3, Ion Silver Fiber Series: Silver is much more reflective to electromagnetic wave than other metals, clothing made with silver fabric would provide a metal mesh that surrounding one's body, reflecting and refracting electromagnetic radiation, the radiation protection principle is to use ionic silver fabric to produce a electromagnetic vacuum, to achieve the protective effect of blocking external electromagnetic waves. It also has anti-static, anti-bacterial deodorant, regulate body temperature, cool off effect. Soft, breathing, can be attached to skin. washable, the best choice for radiation protection. The products is right for people who demand high function of radiation protection and comfort for wearing.
【Expert Tips 】
1,Expert suggestion to couples of reproductive age: the vigorous sperm and egg the prerequisite for raising healthy babies, couples planning on having a baby should be away from radiation source for 3-6 months by wearing radiation protective apparel. Men can choose to wear radiation protective vest, ladies need to wear clothing with protection both for front and back. More protection, baby more healthy.
2, in addition to wearing protective clothing, the experts suggest that television should be put at 3 inches or more and 25 meters distance. using the mobile phone headset, Do not stuck your phone under the pillow. Keep in mind that mothers should not put phone on their stomach.
3, computer should also be placed exactly where it should be.
4,wash your face after using computer.
5, in order to ensure a good radiation protective effects, please purchase new clothes, do not use another person's gift which had been wearing, No need to wear after pregnancy, it could be laid beside your baby's bed to block radiation to give your baby continued care.
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text: "A few thousand people who claim to be homosexuals cannot dictate rules for the majority; they cannot decide what is right and what is wrong." Prakash Sharma, spokesperson for the conservative Hindu group Vishwa Hindu Parishad, praising the decision of India's Supreme Court to overturn a lower court's decision to decriminalize homosexuality. The decision once again makes gay sex ... [Read]


text:
Want to join EWN's original e-fed? Join EWNCW NOW!Want details? Just ask me!
Disciple of Asher Presents - DEATH BUNNY
Originally Posted by NiallF96
#temamodest are the nicest people aboit. get outa here team ego! its not that my spelling gets shit when ikm drunk, just that i canr be bothered correctin the many mistakes i make while typing !
What Arsenal fans think about RVP moving to UTD:
Originally Posted by akbar
There is a difference between playing shit and being shit. You said I think RVP is shit, where I'm saying he'll play shit... His ability will still be there but it just won't have a bug effect on UTD.
Oh akbar....
The Ballad of Owen Hart: "Which one do I pull? Aaahhhh!"
Originally Posted by DK Wrestling Savior
That's Awesome...I think you just stomped the nuts of the entire IWC with this comment. A thing of beauty.
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text:
The revitalized Hotel Tria in Cambridge has a fresh new look giving it the essence of a brand new hotel. The staff of the Tria delivers the same outstanding hospitality that the Best Western Family has for over 65 years. Whether you are a guest of the Hotel Tria for business or leisure, our staff will suit your needs in the best way possible.
Located in the heart of Cambridge, guests will enjoy easy access to all of Boston's best museums, shopping, restaurants and points of cultural and technological interest.
Our property is just steps away from the gorgeous walking and bike paths at Fresh Pond Reservoir and minutes from bustling Harvard Square. Take in a Boston Bruins, Boston Red Sox or Boston Celtics game while visiting the city with the most loyal sports fans. If you're thinking about a taking a trip to the New England Aquarium or Museum of Science be sure to inquire about the packages that we offer when making your reservation.
The Hotel Tria has been busy updating all areas of the hotel to set our accommodations apart as one of the premier Best Western properties in Boston and in New England. All of our new and recently renovated 121 guest rooms feature brand new beds and luxurious linens. All rooms come standard with 32" flat screen LCD televisions with premium satellite cable channels, a mini refrigerator, microwave, wired and wireless internet access and heating / air conditioning systems with digital climate control to customize your in-room temperature to your liking.
Start your day off with our complimentary hot breakfast buffet in our expanded breakfast area, or visit the on-site Starbucks Coffee or Whole Foods Market located adjacent to the hotel for a quick and satisfying meal.Open nightly, the stylish Hotel Tria Bar 220 features a full cocktail and a light dinner menu for guests who want to unwind after a day on the town or at the office.
Business guests will impress clients and colleagues with a sparkling new board room and meeting rooms for small groups. On-site banquet facilities and catering options are also available for small social gatherings and special events. Please contact the Sales Department for information regarding meetings and functions.
Hotel Tria's efficient and helpful guest services staff, complete with 24 hour front desk service, are here to assist you with any and all details to make your next event a successful one. Best Western Plus Hotel Tria in Cambridge, Massachusetts is more than a place to rest your head…our property provides the perfect, convenient hub for your next visit to Boston.
Experience the impeccable customer service and traditional value of


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text:
Picture: Méline Lafont, New Zealand
Saint Germain
Greetings my most beloved friends. With the highest esteem and respect I offer you once more my loving energies and I bathe all of you in my essence of violet colours and my fragrances of Love. I am permitted to step forward again in this Now moment of your reality and, as always, I am grateful for this.
The last message I have given through this beloved Twin Flame of mine dealt with Love and the aspects of Twin Flames. It was my pleasure to bring a message about those topics but today I am going to talk about something entirely different if you allow me.
Today I would like to elaborate on the coming times where the next constructive energies are getting ready to build your reality in your lives and in your experiences. There are 2 choices you can make concerning those energies. EITHER you choose to not do anything with them although you integrate them for a later date when you feel you will be ready OR you start working and effectively do something with them. No matter what choice you make, all will be accepted with the heart and the Love and will be respected from our position of Being. Continue reading


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DEANNA LETS JASON GET DOWN ON ONE KNEE TO PROPOSE In what we used to think was the most despicable moment in TV breakup history (until Monday night's episode of "The Bachelor"), "Bachelorette" Deanna Pappas let single dad Jason Mesnick get down on one knee and actually start proposing before she interrupted him. "No, I can't," moaned Pappas (in a voiceover seemingly added in post-production) just a few grueling moments too late. But in perfect what-goes-around-comes-around reality-show karma, her relationship with the other guy she let propose to her that same day ended badly. If only she hadn't gone to New Zealand and advised Jason to take the safe bet (aka Melissa), maybe he wouldn't have broken the poor girl's heart even more than Deanna did his.
MICHAEL DUMPS HOLLY ON "THE OFFICE" Michael Scott (Steve Carell) had finally broken loose from his last bad relationship with Jan (Melora Hardin) and lucked out to find Holly (Amy Ryan) — a girl who shares his goofy sense of humor and seemed charmed by his inappropriate remarks. But love and work don't always mix, and Holly was transferred to the Nashua branch. Could a long-distance relationship work? Not on a sitcom and not with a freak like Michael. After begging Holly to stay because he feared he'd return to Jan, Michael decided to cut their long weekend short and head back to Scranton. It's hard to watch a grown man cry.
KEVIN AND WINNIE CALL IT QUITS ON "THE WONDER YEARS" We cried like babies when Kevin Arnold (Fred Savage) and Winnie Cooper (Danica McKellar) shared their last night together. Over six seasons we watched their relationship blossom. When Winnie briefly left Kevin for Paul (really?) and when Kevin fell for Madeline, the hot new girl at school, we thought those episodes were just dalliances and that Winnie and Kevin would be together forever. But in the series finale, when Kevin found Winnie making out with the summer camp lifeguard, we realized that this young love could not last forever and it was time to move on. Even as they were breaking up, a rain-soaked, tear-drenched Winnie said, "I don't want it to end." Neither did we.
JOEY AND PACEY MELT DOWN ON "DAWSON'S CREEK" The only thing worse than a nasty breakup is a nasty PUBLIC breakup. Such was the case when Pacey let loose on Joey at the senior prom, as Dawson and the class stood with their chins to the floor. No wonder he felt like he was "the designated loser." Gotta say, Pacey, you sure seemed like it.
MIKE LEAVES GLORIA ON "GLORIA" Three years after "All in the Family" went off the air, producer Norman Lear decided to go for yet another spin-off, this time about Archie Bunker's daughter, Gloria. While we never saw Mike Stivak (Rob Reiner) and Gloria Bunker-Stivak (Sally Struthers) go their separate ways, we were given a simple (if not entirely plausible) explanation: Mike had decided to join a commune, leaving Gloria and their son, Joey, to make it on their own. The most upsetting part of the TV couple's split? "Gloria" is one of the most notoriously bad spin-offs of all time.
DIANE POSTPONES HER WEDDING TO SAM ON "CHEERS" Sam Malone (Ted Danson) and Diane Chambers (Shelley Long) were TV's ultimate on-again/off-again couple. But finally it seemed they would take a trip down the aisle. The wedding was set. Enter Diane's ex-fiance, Sumner Sloane, who offered her a deal to finish her novel. And sadly enough she accepted. Her promise to return in six months went unfulfilled. Diane would not return to "Cheers" for six years, when she showed up for the series finale, as Sam and Diane decided to run off and get married — and then called it off yet again.
RHODA AND JOE SPLIT ON "RHODA" When Rhoda Morgenstern (Valerie Harper) married Joe Gerard (Dave Groh) they made the simple vow to stay together "as long as you both shall love." They loved for roughly one-and-a-half seasons before becoming the first couple to separate (and ultimately divorce) on TV. Their relationship arc proves the timeless adage that getting married doesn't solve all of a girl's problems — especially on a sitcom. Heed our warning, Carrie Bradshaw.
LORELAI BREAKS LUKE'S HEART ON "GILMORE GIRLS" It was the moment we'd all been waiting for (and believe us, we "Gilmore Girls" fans were rabid enough to wait a long, long time): Lorelai Gilmore (Lauren Graham) and Luke Danes (Scott Patterson) were finally together. But Luke was toying with her — and us. He kept delaying their wedding. Still, Lorelai might have overreacted to his last postponement just a touch. Sleeping with your ex in retaliation is taking it too far, right? Anyway the wedding was off, the series was cut short, and we never got to live out our fantasy of walking down the aisle with Lorelai and Luke. We're not sure who was more broken-hearted: Lorelai, Luke, or the fans.
BERGER BREAKS UP WITH CARRIE ON A POST-IT NOTE ON "SEX AND THE CITY" It was 2003′s equivalent of breaking up via text message, when Jack Berger (Ron Livingston) broke up with Carrie Bradshaw (Sarah Jessica Parker) on a Post-It Note: "I'm sorry. I can't. Don't hate me." Too late, Berger. There's absolutely no way for a guy to crawl back into a girl's good graces after that kind of treatment.
BURKE LEAVES CHRISTINA AT THE ALTAR ON "GREY'S ANATOMY" What happens when your on-screen love makes some off-color off-screen remarks? He gets fired in the real world and leaves your character at the altar in TV land. That's what happened to Sandra Oh's character, Cristina Yang, on "Grey's Anatomy" when her TV fiancé, Isaiah Washington's Dr. Preston Burke allegedly made a homophobic remark about fellow cast member T.R. Knight. The result was one of those classically painful jilted-girl-in-a-big-white-puffy-dress moments.