Why China won't own next-generation manufacturing - <AUTHOR> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2016/08/26/why-china-wont-own-next-generation-manufacturing/ <comment><USER3> China's "manufacturing engine" has not "largely stalled". Here's China's GDP growth.[1] 6.7% annually this year, down from 7.9% in 2023. The US is 2.2%. China is not "stalled". If you want numbers that can't be faked, inbound container counts at the port of Los Angeles are up.

The claim that "75 percent of all robots used in China are purchased from foreign firms" only makes sense if you count Hon Hai/Foxconn as "foreign". HQ is in Taiwan, but Foxconn has over a million employees in China. Their Foxbot robots [2] are being produced at a rate of 20,000 per year. The US only has 26,000 robots total, mostly in automotive.[3] Foxconn claims they have good enough robotic precision now to use their robots to make iPhones.

The article is really a rehash of a paper by Dieter Ernst.[4] The "manufacturing decline" in China reflects layoffs in mining and metals. Those are both industries where even basic mechanization cuts the number of employees enormously. Those industries were mostly state-owned, and were oversized and overstaffed for the demand. About a third of China's state-run firm jobs (30 million) disappeared between 1998 and 2015. Ernst writes "Outside of mines and minerals, manufacturing apparently continues to act as an employment absorber." That's not manufacturing decline; that's modernizing the steel industry. (More high-quality stuff, less rebar, fewer workers, less pollution.)

Ernst complains that the 13th Five Year Plan isn't specific about how new jobs will be created. He points out that salaries for college graduates seem to be declining, and unemployment rates for college graduates are up. This matches US experience. There's the usual complaint about not enough pre-trained vocational workers. However, companies in China are used to having to train their people - after all, many are right off the farm.

The article has a picture of "carbon fiber silk thread". There is no such thing. There is, however, a stock image from Getty Images miscaptioned that way.

It's a typical Vivek Wadhwa article, written to get attention.

[1] [http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth- annual](http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual) [2] [http://www.scmp.com/tech/innovation/article/1829834/foxconns...](http://www.scmp.com/tech/innovation/article/1829834/foxconns- foxbot-army-close-hitting-chinese-market-track-meet-30-cent) [3] [http://www.ifr.org/industrial- robots/statistics/](http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics/) [4] [http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2820433](http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2820433)

<comment><USER4> I appreciate the well thought our response.

I offer a counter on one point:

"If you want numbers that can't be faked, inbound container counts at the port of Los Angeles are up."

There is a world wide glut of shipping capacity. [http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/31/news/economy/china- shipping-...](http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/31/news/economy/china-shipping- slowdown/)

port of LA could still be up but perhaps it isn't really an adequate example to generalize.

otherwise, I am in the same place. Sure, countries where production left due to labor costs will be able to compete again, and will enjoy some advantages around strong research institutions and being close to their markets, but its silly to think that China won't now have a strong consumer market to provide for, that they can't innovate, and that they can't have top tier research. I have lived in the US and China and I always get this feeling that Westerns think they have a monopoly on ideas and China has a monopoly on cheating/cloning/cheap. They are all wrong.

<comment><USER4> also, I would love to offer some interesting numbers

I manufacturer in china ([https://flair.co](https://flair.co)) and just recently got some quotes from Bay Area Metal shops.

A tool for metal stamping that costs me 5KUSD in China was quoted to me for 55KUSD in the East Bay. And, the 5K cost gets refunded to me after 40K pieces are bought...

The notion that there aren't significant cost differences now is also misrepresented in the article. Sure, I would love to produce parts next to my apartment both because of convenience and proximity to my market (not because of bruhaha made in america nationalism nonsense) but it simply doesn't make financial sense.

<comment><USER5> So get that tool in China today because you need it today.

The article was about the future. All signs are pointing to that tool costing you ~7.5USD in the US in the near-term future. With better shipping, support and logistics. The price differential is going to, at some point, matter way less than those other considerations and you may well decide to eat the entire $7.5K switching cost just to get access to them. I buy all my iPhones retail, for full price, from Apple.

Of course China is going to win a bunch of price races today, it's like competing in swimming vs. Usain Bolt as a varsity college swimmer. Sure, you might win the first few races. But once Bolt gets serious, he's going to be able to level his skills up way faster than you will, even given your 5 year head start. His genetics are simply better.

The US just has better DNA for commerce. Other countries can win battles, but never the war.

<comment><USER6> >genetics >has better DNA

It's a bit racist, isn't it?

<comment><USER7> I don't see any mention of race. Is the belief that phenotype expresses genotype racist?

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> One way to create controversy is to say something that's true, but many people don't accept and will therefore argue with. Such journalism can push the world forward by calling attention to mistaken ideas.

This article, like many by the same author, might be dubbed 'wrongtroversial'. That is, it creates controversy by saying something wrong.

Wrongtroversy is far more scalable. It's very hard to discover something that is: (a) true (b) not widely accepted (c) not recently mentioned by other journalists. But if you drop condition (a), you'll never run out of ideas.

The most effective wrongtroversial articles assert something that's wrong for several different reasons. People will then proceed to argue with each other about which reason is more important, generating follow-on controversy.

Credit to @pg for coining this term.

<comment><USER9> Great term. But I really wonder how can you have an academic career and then write stuff like this?

<comment><USER10> even academics do have to eat occasionally.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> I don't follow this line of thinking at all. What's the argument here? That Chinese can't learn how to manage certain things? That they can't improve their educational system? Does anyone seriously think this is true?

And then to end with, _well even if they do, we can just import their robots_. Ok.. then wouldn't they "own next-generation manufacturing" if they are the ones making the tools, pushing what machines are capable of, etc. I mean, does the writer really think we can dominate next-gen manufacturing if we don't even make the tools? What's our competitive advantage then?

<comment><USER12> Also the last straw argument "Chinese can't innovate/be bold because only Liberal arts degree holders can do that."

While conveniently forgetting that current leading company in Drones DJI is a Chinese company and they brilliantly managed to build their own Tech industry. Frankly American journalists are deluding themselves if they assume that all asians are like what they chose to show in Hollywood (where they are portrayed as lacking communication skills) and as if innovation is a western monopoly.

<comment><USER13> China can't be innovative because they lack the cultural foundation for it. Innovation requires creativity, critical thinking, outside the box thinking, etc etc etc... All things which China's PRC sees as a threat to their power so they squash it down. They want flesh robots, not revolutions.

So they have to steal IPs to be competitive. Whether it's plans for the space shuttle or the latest iPhone, China will steal literally anything with virtually no shame. Unfortunately, they don't see the side-effect of this IP theft. That is, it reduces innovation even more. When you shortcut your way to the top (or in this case, the middle), you don't have that same foundation for innovation. A huge part of innovation is the process itself -- it lays the foundation for future innovations. A framework or path. That foundation is just as, if not more important that the innovation itself. And that's what China is missing out on.

They're being left behind while IP theft is going to get harder and harder for them as countries/businesses wise-up.

<comment><USER14> Weren't people saying the same thing about the Japanese 30 years ago?

<comment><USER15> Yes they did.

It's true if you're behind the state of the art you copy whoever is out in front. Because there's no reason to reinvent the wheel. Once you catch up, though, you start doing your own R&D because it makes sense to do so. That's what the Japanese did, that's what the Koreans did, and that's what the Chinese will do when they feel they've learned everything they can from manufacturers in other countries.

It's going to take awhile, though. Chinese companies are having problems filling slots at the very top of the high tech skill ladder. A relative of mine works for a company that moved an optics manufacturing operation from China to Switzerland for cost reasons. The particular expertise they needed is rare in China, and people who have it can write their own ticket.

<comment><USER13> This is completely nonsense. Japan did not commit mass espionage and IP theft.

Copying? Reverse-engineering? Sure, what country doesn't do that? _That 's the baseline_. China is doing something completely different and on an entirely different level. The sheer volume and amount of IP theft and espionage they engage in is jaw-dropping. Whether they're using useful idiots/nationalists to steal the space shuttle plans, or running their hacker groups targeting corporate/governmental entities 24/7/365, it's moronic to equate that to Japan in the 70s/80s.

Again, Japan wasn't known for their espionage efforts because they engaged in so little in comparison with everyone else. Hell, Russia was the bigger threat in the 80s thanks to the cold war. Japan was a complete non-factor. Japan had a growing economy that people were scared would supplant the U.S _but that 's where the similarities end_. I'm befuddled how this nonsense is allowed to stand here on hackernews. It's reddit level garbage.

<comment><USER15> >This is completely nonsense. Japan did not commit mass espionage and IP theft.

"Espionage"? I looked back through my post and didn't see that word anywhere.

>Copying? Reverse-engineering? Sure, what country doesn't do that?

Yes... and that was the point.

>I'm befuddled how this nonsense is allowed to stand here on hackernews. It's reddit level garbage.

Yes... yes it is.

<comment><USER13> You compared China of today to Japan of the 80s. That is laughable garbage, my comment was to show how moronic that thought process is.

<comment><USER15> Two things: One, it's not moronic at all. Modern China and 1980s Japan are very much in a similar economic position. And two, your comment did nothing to challenge that assertion.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER16> "Advanced manufacturing requires management and communication skills and the ability to operate complex information-based factories" is meaningless consultant jargon. It would have been better to explain exactly what about advanced manufacturing makes it so special that it requires 'management' and 'communication' skills that the managers and workers in non-advanced factories apparently lack. Meanwhile, "ability to operate complex information-based factories" is almost a tautology. Maybe talk about industrial IOT, or what specialized skills are necessary to efficiently operate a factory full of robots, or _something_?

<comment><USER17> MBAs pretending they're special snowflakes rather than a waste of money.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> They have resources, land and an interest in local manufacturing. Chinese software engineers are good enough for Baidu (and have big names like Ng to help them get up to speed).

Even in America, we recognize that Chinese (and other asian cultures) are often better at a wide variety of academic subjects.

Their great firewall and isolationism forced them to build their own software and it appears to work well.

I'm convinced that some percentage of their enormous population can work in engineering as well or better than our engineers.

Don't underestimate China.

<comment><USER19> Many Nobel prize winners have been Chinese, only one was a citizen of the PRC when they did the work/received the award. China's problem isn't it's people, but it's crazily dysfunctional government that wastes it's tremendous human capital.

<comment><USER20> > Many Nobel prize winners have been Chinese, only one was a citizen of the > PRC when they did the work/received the award

Is that statement supposed to inform me about the shortcomings of the PRC, or those of the Nobel prize? I can't tell.

<comment><USER19> It is supposed to inform you of the achievement of the Chinese people, and not to conflate them with the Chinese government.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> OK, so let's say that a Chinese company moves its stuff to the US.

As a former toolmaker, (you can guess why) I have to say "why would they do that?" They would have to invest in training for people to be toolmakers, millwrights, etc. - the trades closely related to engineering (toolmakers do both design and machining, for example) that have gone stale in this country because there are no jobs and no apprenticeships for people to learn them. These are the skills needed to make tools for the assembly lines. And we don't have them any more. You need someone on the shop floor to debug the tooling and that person is still in China.

All the skill is now in China. It's not coming back. So neither is the manufacturing.

If you have a A.T. Cross pen, please chuck it in the ocean.

Yes, I'm pessimistic and angry. Because I saw an entire industry get gutted just so a few at the top can have _more_.

</comment><comment><USER22> Isn't this article just another sign of western/US based interests feeling like they might have already lost the race ? It feels far more like a 'feelgood' article to prevent panic and to reinforce propaganda of western superiority for the masses, I just can't view it as a structured argument...

</comment><comment><USER23> The article is by Vivek Wadhwa [1]. One quote, which doesn't quite make sense to me:

"Even though China is graduating far more than 1 million engineers every year, the quality of their education is so poor that they are not employable in technical professions."

Not even one of them is employable?

The author is clearly knowledgeable, so I wonder if this is an editing error.

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Wadhwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Wadhwa)

<comment><USER24> The only accurate prediction he's ever made is that Groupon would collapse

</comment></comment><comment><USER25> America doesn't need to ship electronics components over to China for manufacturing (into larger products). Those components are already made in Asia, and they have raw materials too.

I believe it really boils down to having a large enough middle class to afford advanced manufactured products. If those products don't require labor to manufacture, then who will earn enough to buy them?

</comment><comment><USER26> Keep Dreaming.

China has made it a _national priority_ to provide better standard of living to their people then the West.

 _..With rising salaries, labor unrest, environmental devastation and intellectual property theft, China is no longer an attractive place.._

How are these things bad ? China has their own class of capitalists now - <USER2> no longer need wall street to finance their projects.

China may have bumpy roadblocks - but at the scale they operate - financially, manpower and political will. It sort of doesn't matter. Its like a elephant worrying about what an ant thinks.

Any issue that china faces - they seem to figure out how to overcome it. In the EU we cannot even figure out how to get our currency right - even though modern finance started here. China made all the right decisions when it comes to Keynesian economics.

And sure they have a lot of debt - but the losers are the banks who are lending them money. Who is going to knock on China's door to ask for their money back ?

China can afford to waste 1 million of their own engineers to just beat Airbus. That is the scale at which they operate. Just like how Stalin was able to screw up so many times.

I have meet a lot of Chinese students - and if they were good at English and didn't grew up with the great firewall. Silicon Valley wouldn't prolly exist. Software is the only industry where I have seen American and Indian be better than the Chinese - but its a very anecdotal observation.

You do not have to do a lot of analysis - just listen to a few episodes of Dan Carlin's hardcore history.

For most of history China dominated economically and technologically. Just because Europeans had better war technology ( due to the fact that europeans were do divided ) were we able to dominate for a few hundred years.

We are going back to what normal looks like.

Edit:

I am not some chinese shill, my personal opinion is china should be punished for crushing other countries through unfair trade practices.

The free market doesn't work if there are companies that have the backing of a state with 1.3 billion people !

China would probably dominate even without the massive financial backing of their state banks. But the aggressive nature of their expansion is worrying.

American's are still protected - you should ask the peripheral countries about the effect of the rise of China to their economies ( Vietnam, etc ) why do you think Obama is trying to push the TPP ?

China also worries me because they are showing that democracy doesn't matter, when it comes to wealth creation.

<comment><USER27> "Any issue that china faces - they seem to figure out how to overcome it."

Apart from running a democratic and open society.

<comment><USER28> It does not seem like an issue to them. At least, not for their industry. Englandof 1700s was not an open and democratic society either, but it lead the industrial revolution.

<comment><USER29> Very true, but you're overlooking the fact that England of the 1700s was in the 1700s.

<comment><USER28> History is a pretty local thing. The ideas of democracy and freedom (these are two different, often contradictory things) seem ti be pervasive in Western Europe or North America. This does not mean they are pervasive, or desired, or even understood everywhere in the world, despite the "civilized West"'s attempts at propagating these ideas.

Chinese government has a pretty tight grip on the nation's information sources, and has a very significant political and military power. Democracy has no chance to be exported there, as it was exported e.g. to Iraq and Afghanistan (rather unsuccessfully).

Chinese government makes a lot of efforts to keep the political system of China under control, without Western-style democracy (and probably any other). It also makes a lot of efforts to keep China producing and selling a lot of stuff, and becoming better and better at it. It's rather successful on both accounts.

There are a few examples of countries becoming wild economic successes under quite undemocratic regimes: South Korea and Singapore spring to mind. But both are not Communist (or former Communist, since the Chinese seem to have abolished much of their previous communism). Maybe this is why the didn't look so suspicious to the Western public.

<comment><USER30> A funny thing is when I was talking to a lot of friends in China recently, while they like america in general, they believe the Chinese system is superior to the western "democracy". Do not get me wrong, they blame the Chinese government for many things rather fiercely at the same time.

I somehow feel like they are overly optimistic but could not find any proof to refute their point (talking about the current US election clearly did not help...). They are mostly upper middle class who worth more than me. So I guess they may be biased? However the taxi drivers seem to have the same view.

An anecdote: none of them want to immigrate (at least to US) and their only major concern seems to be the air quality. Since they can buy everything else from overseas anyway.

<comment><USER31> >An anecdote: none of them want to immigrate (at least to US)

I think your sample is skewed. Chinese people from all social classes are immigrating to the US at record rates. The US gets about 25% of all Chinese emigrants each year, a number that's been growing not decreasing. China recently overtook Mexico as the top source for new immigrants in the US.

Look at the number of Chinese students, the number of H-1Bs, and the number of Chinese green card applications for evidence of middle class highly educated immigration.

For less educated immigration, visit any Chinese restaurant in any backwater town in the country. You'll find that the front of house is staffed by an endless supply of new immigrants.

<comment><USER30> My sample is definitely skewed, since it is just like a dozen of upper middle class friends. However, your argument may be flawed as well :)

It is possible that Chinese immigrants are on the rise, but it is not like a Chinese person can easily immigrate to US, legally or not. Comparing the number of Chinese and Mexican is a bit silly, because of the "undocumented".

The number of Chinese students is meaningless as not every student wants or can stay. The number of H-1b may mean something but my feeling is that Chinese are getting less in recent years. Do you have actual data? The green card applications is more direct evidence, but some real data showing the trend would be useful.

Anyway, I think if there is no pacific in the middle and there is no wall at the border. At least 100 million Chinese people would love to move to US...

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> This is important because ethical, sustainable manufacturing is foundational to a sustainable economy. I don't think any single entity - country, company, person should "own" manufacturing. Some of the other comments touch on this, but manufacturing has far broader implications for the domestic middle class (whatever country you're in) as well as for the environment.

Manufacturing jobs as we remember them - Roseanne at the plastic utensil factory, nor as they are - assembling iPhones, are not next-gen manufacturing jobs. Those jobs will be designing, building and maintaining automated industrial productivity.

I think manufacturing gets overlooked because it is not relatable and not sexy. However, it is incredibly cool. There is a significant opportunity for innovation with tremendous social and environmental impact.

</comment><comment><USER32> For many years additive manufacturing printers have been getting better, but slowly. In most cases, the printing process has leaned heavily on people and software for addition of part supports and other part modifications, and a good 3D manufacturing team will include experienced personnel; it's not easy to replicate.

While large companies typically mass produce, there are certain parts that cannot be made via traditional manufacturing processes. They've been using additive manufacturing typically for tooling and higher-end products in these cases.

Also, there is a trend towards customization, faster iterations of part design, and using a variety of part materials within each additive manufactured part that each have their own qualities.

But, printer manufacturers have seen opportunity in making the printing process faster and easier to use, which over time will reduce the need for all of the people involved in the process. Already some of the latest printers are autogenerating supports and making it simple to remove those supports. That's just a small part of the process, but it is a significant step.

So, while traditional mass manufacturing companies will be hurting in a decade or two, eventually printers will no longer require humans to be involved at all. Then, any company with enough money to buy a large number of printers could manufacture 3D parts at mass scale.

I think it is premature to say that China won't eventually own next-generation manufacturing eventually, but it won't in the next few decades unless they drop everything and get on it.

</comment><comment><USER33> Sounds like this article is bunk from the comments, but I have simple answer for why they won't own it, or at least why it won't even matter: Automation. With automation eating labor to the core, the supply chain (cheap as it is, though time in the supply chain costs money too) will be the next thing to be eaten. I think we're going to see a much more distributed model of manufacturing in the future and it will involve precious little labor.

<comment><USER34> The US offshored so much of its manufacturing, I have to wonder if there is sufficient critical mass of knowledge, people, infrastructure, _etc._ left to effectively automate. Or if American firms will instead buy solutions from Chinese automation companies, and the US ends up ceding the large-scale (or even decentralized distributed-scale) automated manufacturing future to China as well. This could leave the US performing very high-end manufacturing requiring lots of labor input, but what happens when what the Chinese firms learned with automation in the lower-end manufacturing is used to encroach on this high-end?

Bunnie Huang pointed out the very ecosystem of lots of manufacturers in close physical proximity to each in China other enables them to try different ideas, failing fast and cheaply (the dual SIM feature came out of such freewheeling experimentation). Can the US automate if it has gaps in its own manufacturing capabilities having let it atrophy for so many decades, or are US business leaders assuming a future where they are always purchasing "lower-end" manufactured parts from the next China (and if they are, how are they ensuring those "lower-end" manufacturers don't climb up the value ladder and take their market from them)?

<comment><USER33> It's an interesting hypothesis, but it presumes all engineering for manufacturing is done in China, which is usually not the case. It was my impression most manufacturing in China is "offshored" by American firms. I have no idea what the actual stats are though, so it'd be tough to say one way or another.

</comment></comment></comment><comment> norea-armozel I'm not sure you can compare an existing factory in China with a non-existing factory in upstate New York. The two have very different environments to contend with. In China, they already have supply chains, investors, and customers. Whereas an non-existent or proposed factory has to set each of these up and still contend with competition with the existing factories. The only real advantage a factory that's local (like one in upstate New York) is they'll be closest to the demand for that region. So, they can attenuate their output when demand rises/lowers. But as a whole this is only a potential benefit in terms of the ecological impact (reduced over production for some products). And I say potential because some areas are better manufacturing certain products like it's cheaper to extract aluminium British Columbia where they have cheap power due to hydroelectric power than say S. America where you find the aluminium ore rich soils. Getting around infrastructure limitations won't be as easy as simply pouring more concrete. Some places just will never be able to compete and I think this is something some folks need to address in such articles.

</comment><comment><USER35> Yes, robots do the same in China as they do in the U.S.A., BUT you still have to pay a human to turn on the lights and start or stop the robots. In the U.S.A. it will cost you 4x more I am guessing for this person.

They are not just sticking to manufacturing. China holds the number one spot in Supercomputers as of June 2016 with Sunway TaihuLight, which displaced another Chinese supercomputer Tianhe-2. The Sunway also uses no U.S.A. hardware. [1]

China also just announced a 64-core Arm processor Phytium that if confirmed "will be the most powerful Arm server chip on the planet." [2]

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer)

[2] [https://www.top500.org/news/chinese-chipmaker-unveils- speedy...](https://www.top500.org/news/chinese-chipmaker-unveils- speedy-64-core-arm-processor/)

</comment><comment><USER36> I agree with the headline, but I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning. Manufacturing is increasingly robotic, however it's also increasingly mobile, and scalable. In the not so distant future I think various forms of 3D printing will take over manufacturing. You'll have your small home units and large almost entirely automated industrial units building more complex objects. Why would this happen? Labor costs are beginning to rise in China. As are costs in other parts of the world. As costs rise, seems like the distance becomes a huge factor. Manufacture locally, distribute locally. Now the question becomes how to employ the worlds populace....

Also related/interesting: [https://www.ted.com/talks/olivier_scalabre_the_next_manufact...](https://www.ted.com/talks/olivier_scalabre_the_next_manufacturing_revolution_is_here?language=en)

</comment><comment><USER37> This is a rather poorly written article. The main premise seems to be that manufacturing is being automated, China is automating manufacturing by buying robots not made in China, and since robots have the same productivity everywhere, it doesn't make sense to manufacture in China since it can be done back in the US.

While saving labor costs is an important reason for moving manufacturing to China, there are other equally important factors as well. Access to a labor pool of workers that do higher level designing that cannot be automated, much lower local taxes (and even subsidies), proximity to other manufacturing centers already in China are just some of the other important reasons.

I wish journalists would do a little more research before writing inane articles with sensationalist headlines.

</comment><comment><USER38> The question really boils down to: will people be buying goods from Chinese companies or US companies. If the former, then manufacturing will likely be in China. If the US, then it doesn't make sense to outsource automated labor to China just to ship it all back to the US while simultaneously risking IP theft. Chinese consumers will likely buy Chinese made goods or foreign luxury brands. In the US people are more likely to buy US branded goods.

</comment><comment><USER39> No mention if China's other headache, the fractious legal system. Things like land title, equity rights or non-expropriation (government's taking/buying private assets) are centuries old doctrine in the west. Those looking to invest billions into 'next-gen' manufacturing facilities want legal stability, stability measurable in decades. China isn't there yet.

<comment><USER21> "Things like land title, equity rights or non-expropriation (government's taking/buying private assets) are centuries old doctrine in the west. Those looking to invest billions into 'next-gen' manufacturing facilities want legal stability, stability measurable in decades. China isn't there yet."

There are stories in the news from time to time about situations where you have an old woman who's been living in the same place for decades (see the movie "Up" for a fictional example), and she's the last person on the land to accept payment for the land and move. The builders - either a company or the government, wind up having to build around. The way they do it is very passive-aggressive, but there /is/ law over there when it comes to land ownership. It's not all state property.

Further, do you really "own" your land here in the US? Nobody I know does. You either pay rent (taxes) to the government on the land or the land is taken from you.

There is no such thing as totally private land ownership.

WRT manufacturing plants:

Every new company in China has to be majority Chinese-owned. The government has smartened up over the decades and left behind the "everything is owned by the state, even your toothbrush" to something in between total private ownership and public ownership. So they have rules like the above which anger US investors, but are geared to the interests of the Chinese public.

They take care of their own. We used to do that here in the US, but it's all become "fuck you, the free market fixes everything!!!" wharrgarble.

<comment><USER39> >> Further, do you really "own" your land here in the US? Nobody I know does. You either pay rent (taxes) to the government on the land or the land is taken from you.

Don't get legal theories from fringe websites. That line of thinking is a stone's throw from "US citizens don't have to pay taxes" and "Driver's licences are unconstitutional". Such websites are what got Wesley Snipes in so much trouble. Read some actual legal texts at your local law library

Property ownership is a thing in the US (and canada, france, the UK and the rest of the western world). The government cannot take your land without full value compensation, even if you don't pay your taxes. They can condemn your land and sell it to pay your debt, giving you all that is left, but that is a long legal process where the rights of the landowner are given much consideration and ample opportunity. They are not a landlord reclaiming property.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER40> Big question is if the manufacturing moves back to US...will China allow US imports. This will be interesting, every country might start their manufacturing operations and I believe the big winner will be the one manufacturing robots :)

</comment><comment><USER41> I agree that with automation production will become more and more local but the article assumes most consumption will happen in the US.

</comment><comment><USER42> the author has completely ignored the fact that Chinese skill improves over the years, Americans grow, but Chinese grow faster.

</comment><comment><USER43> "China is now low-cost, high-quality" \--Jack Ma

</comment><comment><USER44> Same old American rhetoric. "Oh, the chinese are only good at copying. They can never create". Yawn.

<comment><USER21> I've seen the same stupid crap said about the japanese, koreans, etc., over the past 40 years. The story remains the same: Corporate US management sits on its hands and watches the rest of the world innovate. Because thinking is too hard and investing in R&D and capital equipment is too expensive.

</comment></comment><comment><USER45> Have to enter email to read? Forget it.

<comment><USER46> When I click to read it redirects me to subscribe.washingtonpost.com. Probably because I've read to many WaPo articles recently... Opening the link in incognito mode works.

<comment><USER21> If you hit the 'stop loading' button early enough, the stuff you're talking about doesn't have a chance to load.

It's slow enough to do this because web pages load enough crap to run a Quake game.

<comment><USER46> Thanks, that worked. You're right, it's surprisingly slow.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER43> With rising salaries, labor unrest, environmental devastation and intellectual property theft, China is no longer an attractive place;</comment>


Paypal New Policy Terms Regarded as Draconian by Some Users - <AUTHOR> http://themerkle.com/paypal-new-policy-terms-regarded-as-draconian-by-some-users/ <comment><USER2> Includes a non-disparagement clause, and PayPal's mark must "at least at par with other payment methods offered", plus some new exclusions from their Buyer Protection program.</comment>


Ask HN: So you're looking for a full-stack engineer? - <AUTHOR>

So you want to hire a master-of-all-trades super-coder capable of building a webserver, a web application, database development, DBA duties, front-end development, CSS, Photoshop design duties.
LOL.
You guys are fucking crazy.  Unless you're willing to pay half a million a year for a some kind of supercoder capable of doing all the tasks of your company and doing so instead of starting his or her own company... then good luck.
Honestly these fucking dumbass newly funded YC companies must be smoking some nice weed. <comment><USER2> I agree with parts of your opinion, but disagree with your diction. There is no need for name calling. Instead of prompting a discussion about this topic, which could be very interesting, you are attacking and insulting many successful companies and people.

Also, when companies say "full-stack engineer", I tend to think that they aren't looking for an ephemeral engineer with current, relevant knowledge on all those systems, but someone who has the capacity to learn several of those systems quickly and on demand.

<comment><AUTHOR> Nope I'm perfectly in the right to insult these companies. They are idiots and need to be slapped in the face with the reality that the genius coders they're looking for will laugh in their face.</comment></comment>


Ebola Outbreak Evolution Rate - <AUTHOR> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak#Timeline_of_the_outbreak

<comment><USER2> Wow, the estimated 1st derivative of cases by country does _not_ make this anything like under control.

<comment><USER3> I think the 1st derivative of new cases is more meaningful for being under control... hopefully</comment></comment>


Node.js debugging with Chrome DevTools in parallel with browser JS - <AUTHOR> https://blog.hospodarets.com/nodejs-debugging-in-chrome-devtools <comment><USER2> Note that --inspect has issues with Node 6.4+ at the moment: [https://github.com/nodejs/node/issues/8155#issuecomment-2504...](https://github.com/nodejs/node/issues/8155#issuecomment-250459246)

<comment><USER3> I'm refreshing this tracker, maybe a dozen times a day

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> It's nice to see that Chrome and Node.js communities are working closely together. The --inspect flag was a huge improvement and makes Node.js a lot more attractive as a programming environment.

</comment><comment><USER5> I've done quite a bit of research for Node.js debugging and the best and easiest is to use Visual Studio Code's built in debugger. It has breakpoints, local scope inspecting and other goodies.

This is definitely gona rock, if they ship it with the stock Chrome.

<comment><USER6> WebStorm also has those things and more afaik. Definitely has some other flaws though, even compared to PyCharm (one would think they'd be similarly well maintained).

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> I'd been meaning to try using Electron to debug/run both my node.js backend and my single page web app front end in the same process.

With using redux, you'd have a time travel-able single process server and client debug workflow. Headsplode.

<comment><USER7> Addendum: If I recall, when I try GWT way back in the day, they had somehow made it so you can develop your webapps in a single process using a Java debugger.

<comment><USER8> Yep. That's because in development mode, your client code was actually real Java running in an external process, and the GWT DevMode browser plugin intercepted JS execution and ran the real Java instead. It was great, especially if you were comfortable with Java/desktop development and not web dev (as I was at the time). However, the DevMode plugin died off around FF27 due to browser changes.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> > Open DevTools Setting -> Experiments tab (it started being visible after the > reload)

 _> Press "SHIFT" 6 times (enjoy it ¯ \ _ (ツ) _ / ¯) to show the hidden experiments_

> Check the "Node debugging" checkbox

(emphasis mine)

Out of couriosity, why all the jumping-through-hoops? You've _already_ downloaded the canary build, activated a hidden flag to enable experiments _and_ will have to enable that particular experiment. Why additionally hide it behind a cheat code?

</comment><comment><USER10> For my money, VS Code has the best node debugging experience. As Chrome continues to blur the lines between browser/IDE it makes me think that eventually there will exist a Chrome "lite", which lacks a lot of features to save on memory/ easier on batteries, etc.

<comment><USER11> > _As Chrome continues to blur the lines between browser /IDE it makes me > think that eventually there will exist a Chrome "lite", which lacks a lot of > features to save on memory/ easier on batteries, etc._

That's not how code loading works... Features like those are loaded on demand ("when used").

A lot of people make the same mistake conflating various program features that are orthogonal (and even the pages are loaded on demand, when needed) with increased memory usage and "bloat" in general.

</comment></comment><comment><USER12> I had been using devtool ([https://github.com/Jam3/devtool](https://github.com/Jam3/devtool)) for similar effects, but this is awesome!

<comment><USER13> The important part here is not "be able to use devtools to debug node". It's "debug node & a browser tab in the same instance of devtools". E.g. you don't need to switch tabs.

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> This is really awesome/useful, thanks for making this quick tip post. Currently for this, you need Chrome Canary [1], but I wonder what the timeline is for getting this into the regular Chrome build!

[1] [https://www.google.com/intl/en/chrome/browser/canary.html](https://www.google.com/intl/en/chrome/browser/canary.html)

</comment><comment><USER15> Is there any way to get get good network debugging with Node? I really wish we had something like the Chrome Dev Tools networking tab.

</comment><comment><USER16> If you like those, here are some other useful debugging tools:

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk-- XUEorvc&feature=youtu.be...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk-- XUEorvc&feature=youtu.be&t=2h40m32s)

</comment><comment><USER17> I guess this use the _new_ (Chromium) debugging API in NodeJS !?

[https://github.com/nodejs/node/pull/6792](https://github.com/nodejs/node/pull/6792)

</comment><comment><USER18> Saving for later...

</comment><comment><USER19> "Chrome Canary is currently not available on the linux platform."

<comment><USER20> Dev channel for Chromium/Chrome (which is also on 55) has this experiment. You don't need canary.</comment></comment>


Evented Django part one: Socket.IO and gevent - <AUTHOR> http://codysoyland.com/2011/feb/6/evented-django-part-one-socketio-and-gevent/

<comment><USER2> Thank heaven for that. I thought I was going to have to write Javascript on the server one day.

</comment><comment><USER3> This will blend perfectly into an upcoming Django project of mine.

Glad to see more event'ed server implementations are coming up, not just from the JS persuasion.</comment>


Infinite series explained - <AUTHOR> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EtHF5ND3_s <comment><USER2> I always feel like there is some sort of `cheating` or `hacking` going on with infinite series. It's abusing a continuous or infinite concept by representing it with a discrete concept. Then going, "Wow it breaks!" Of course it breaks. Yes, there are an infinite number of terms you can rearrange to converge around ln(2), or 1/2 ln(2), or pi, but you are always going to have some unmatched terms. Also if you were to write the expression describing the two orderings, they would have to be different to produce a different order. Also commutativity does not make sense to me if one side of the expression is unbounded.

Mathematicians seem to like to muck around with the first part of a series, and then claim it all works out since its unbounded. That seems analogous to changing a circle's diameter, and then claiming it does not matter since it's still round. Maybe if they were more clear that the ordering is what's key here, not the total.</comment>


Can a smartphone save your life? - <AUTHOR> http://www.tonmoygoswami.com/2013/09/can-smartphone-save-your-life.html

<comment><USER2> Can a watch save your life? Breitling's answer is [http://www.breitling.com/en/emergency/](http://www.breitling.com/en/emergency/)

For a different need, your idea is great. GPS + camera for informing on the location and case, hence deciding what kind of emergency it is. Also, preserving battery should take place to have multiple updates.

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Suggestions are welcome.</comment>


Tell HN: Commercial VPN service now in open source - <AUTHOR> Hi folks!
Let me introduce myself. I am CEO/CTO/CIO/etc of russian SmartVPN.biz VPN service.
I couple years ago I got an idea to create my own startup - VPN service. It was quite sudden idea, when a couple of friends asked me to give them access to my personal VPN server. Of course I did not study the market, didn't check how many such services are already exists. I've just started coding. A little bit later I made working prototype and pushed it to production.
There were not so many expenses, only my free time and 20$/month for low-end vps.
A year and a half the project was in production. Lots of things changed meanwhile. Internet in russia became very limited and censored. I'm glad that I helped people to bypass stupid internet limitations in our country. I've also experienced DDoS attacks twice, it is really exciting feeling, when you understand, that your service is real, and someone wants to get it down.
But the time is passing, my interests and priorities changed too. That is why I decided to shutdown my startup. I don't want to hide my sources on hard drive, so I've decided to make them opensource. Totally. I published them on github https://github.com/smartvpnbiz with MIT license. So anyone can fork it, use anyway you want. You can try yourself in this hard business.
This is not an ads, I just want to help someone, who may need my experience. So I'll be glad if my service will help anyone. <comment><USER2> Hi there,

I did the same. I founded a VPN provider[0] in my free time. It is still running, but I have at times been close to shutting it down.

Most of my code has been open the whole time and is on github[1]. Some internal tools and the website are not on github though. I went with AGPL for license. It'll make my day if someone forks my code and founds their own provider.

I operate out of Iceland and most of my clients are Icelandic. The biggest use case for my service was ISPs in Iceland charging extra for international bandwidth. By having my servers in Icelandic datacenters, I was able to provide my customers with significantly lower prices for bandwidth, thereby lowering the cost of internet for a lot of people. Considering the huge time investment that has gone into this side project, I have not made much money from it. But knowing that I helped my internet usage more affordable is something that has made this project meaningful for me.

Since I started, lots of things have changed. Some ISPs are now offering unmetered connections (this was unheard of before). Others have lowered their prices. I have heard people attributing part of these changes to me and my company.

I have not experienced DDoS attacks like you, but I have been the subject of meetings at some regulatory boards in Iceland, as well as at the monopoly behind the submarine cables[2] connecting Iceland to the world (the source of this dual-pricing schemes). One hosting provider was forced to change their core routing shortly after I starting hosting with them, to make me unable to host there. Other providers have come under preassure from this monopoly to kick me out. Like you said, you feel like your service was real -- someone with a vested interest against it was watching me.

Some time in the near future I will shut down the service. It's just time to move on to other projects and time to recognize that it's fulfilled it's usefulness. I know I will walk away from this project with a great sense of accomplishment, I am proud and happy with the work I did.

[0]: www.lokun.is

[1]: [https://www.github.com/benediktkr/lokun- record](https://www.github.com/benediktkr/lokun-record)

[2]: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FARICE-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FARICE-1)

<comment><USER3> How exactly do you save them money? If they connect from Iceland to Iceland, they haven't changed their point of origin right? So any use of overseas servers would still cost them?

<comment><USER2> Usually, home users would by a fiber/dsl connection which includes an unlimited amount of domestic bandwidth and a set amount of "international bandwidth", typically from 10GB to 2000GB. When exceeding this quota, users would typically be billed somewhere around $15 for each 10GB increment they went over the quota.

The size (measured in GB) of the international bandwidth "addon" determined the price of the connection far more than the speed of it.

By hosting my servers in Iceland, the traffic through the VPN would not count towards the "international bandwidth" of my users. And since I was hosting in datacenters, I would be paying less for the bandwidth than at a typical home connection.

<comment><USER3> Ah gross, that's pretty messed up. I guess I have s romantic view of Iceland where they wouldn't let that cheesy kinda pricing to exist. Or especially that they'd fight your company. Insane.

<comment><USER2> Indeed. But there are also dual pricing schemes in datacenters. They don't want you to peer with RIX (Eeykjavík Internet Exchange) and charge those who do a higher price (hence forcing one hosting provider to change their routing.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> This is an interesting read! Like some of the others here I too am trying this. A friend and I founded a VPN provider[0] targeting short term subscriptions (i.e. VPN while at a coffee shop, etc) and later some other novel features as we get further down the road.

I first got an idea for this after publishing my OpenVPN docker image [1][2] which received more attention then I ever imagined. The BackRoad[0] service runs all the VPNs with the exact docker image in the public github repo[2] + CoreOS and all that jazz to make it scale.

I come from a hardware background where starting something is completely different then a web service. I think it's interesting with only minimal risk as you've pointed out.

Thanks for sharing!

[0] [http://backroad.io](http://backroad.io)

[1] [https://registry.hub.docker.com/u/kylemanna/openvpn/](https://registry.hub.docker.com/u/kylemanna/openvpn/)

[2] [https://github.com/kylemanna/docker- openvpn](https://github.com/kylemanna/docker-openvpn)

<comment><AUTHOR> I've been looking on docker too, thanks!

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> Thought about doing this. Questions:

-Which VPN server software did you use? -Did build your own custom client wrapper, or did you have people download something like OpenVPN and enter the configuration info themselves

-How many customers did u end up getting? -Was it hard to acquire customers? -Were people more price sensitive or feature sensitive?

<comment><AUTHOR> I used OpenVPN. Didn't have enough time to build custom client wrapper. So our customers used some openvpn client, or viscosity.

We had about 400 registred clients, of course not all were active and paying.

Getting paying customer is quite hard. Some people just register. Others register, pay, but do not start using. Some of them use service for 2 months, then leave. After 2 months they come back.

There different requirements, but most of people want super easy install process. But all of them have different network configurations, so even with simple client you will have to spent time helping people to start using service.

My service was low-end, it was 3$/month.

<comment><USER6> FWIW, that customer churn and on again off again usage pattern might not be anything to do with your service. I use inexpensive VPNs where I can register with an anonymous prepaid credit card and a "throw away" email address - I'll then use the service until the credit runs out and then switch to another inexpensive VPN provider. I think of it as "spreading my needle across as many haystacks as possible".

<comment><AUTHOR> Probably. But they used the same email. Simply they used service from time to time

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> You're a fantastic person, and thanks for doing this. Hopefully it'll be the spark that ignites someone else's passion.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for pleasant words

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> This is great - thanks for doing this. We did something similar, helping people build their own OpenVPN servers here: [https://www.tinfoilsecurity.com/vpn](https://www.tinfoilsecurity.com/vpn)

I'm all for more great and easy-to-use VPN tools! :)

</comment><comment><USER9> I'm also setting up a small VPN service with friends. Mostly aimed at penetrating the firewall at my university. Although we chose to use SoftEther VPN instead of OpenVPN.

[https://www.softether.org/](https://www.softether.org/)

<comment><AUTHOR> It is really powerfull solution, but when it was opensourced it didn't look like server-side project

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> Thanks for doing this!

Something I've always wondered, for the VPN providers out there, how do you guys protect yourself from the liability as a result from the actions of your customers, whom are supposedly anonymous?

<comment><AUTHOR> Hi! Every business has its risks. Some customers may break the laws. Mostly we faced downloading stolen films, software and other stuff.

Real hackers and carders do not use low-end cheap VPN.

So our customers were mostly people who just want to bypass government blocks.

</comment></comment><comment><USER11> You can use oh-my-vpn to setup shared VPN server with your friends. [https://github.com/alaa/oh-my-vpn](https://github.com/alaa/oh-my-vpn)

</comment><comment><USER12> I see you baked most of everything from scratch as far as your control panel goes. Is there any reason why you didn't simply opt for something like WHMCS and then bake in your own API wrapper?

<comment><AUTHOR> I just love coding. The second reason that initially I wanted custom solution, that can be flexible. With my own project built from scratch I could introduce new any features much faster.

</comment></comment><comment><USER13> VPNs are cool :D

</comment><comment><USER14> > Internet in russia became very limited and censored.

I guess that you must really be craving attention or perhaps it was a part of your marketing pitch, but try and not exaggerate things beyond ridiculous. Internet in Russia is a far cry from being "very limited". I travel there every few months to see family and I'm yet to hit _any_ limitations or blacklists.

<comment><USER15> I am consistently annoyed that about 3 out of 30 links on every HN page are blocked in Russia. They are not intentionally blocked - it's collateral damage because they happen to share same ip address with censored websites. A single blocked Cloudflare ip can make a thousand websites unavailable.</comment></comment>


Java can haz Lambdas (C# does haz for 10 years) - <AUTHOR> http://maxhorstmann.net/blog/2014/07/11/java-can-haz-lambdas-c-does-haz-for-10-years/

<comment><USER2> OTOH, Java runs on every major (and deverão minor) operating systems and hardware platforms, from humble feature phones to large mainframes, to the Hadoop clusters that process some of the largest datasets ever collected. C# code runs on Windows machines and, with some effort and courage (one may describe it as recklessness) on Mono.

<comment><USER3> Windows. Mac. iOS. Android. Windows Phone.

[http://xamarin.com/platform](http://xamarin.com/platform)

<comment><USER4> But really, who uses C# on anything but Windows.

<comment><USER3> Rdio

Dow Jones

Tesco

Microsoft

Bosch-Siemens

Direct Energy

Ara

Sennheiser

Kimberley-Clark

Xactware

National Instruments

To pick just the people on [http://xamarin.com/customers](http://xamarin.com/customers)

<comment><USER4> A choice I'm sure they will regret in a few years...

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> For the Lisp programmer to broadcast that he had to crow it from his horse and cart!</comment>


Numu.me (beta) - <AUTHOR> http://numu.me/

<comment><USER2> (1) On arriving at the homepage, I had no idea what your start-up did. I had to navigate to About ("We take any web address and create an easy to share numerical code that connects to that address. We call them numurls, or numus for short.")

Please explain your product succinctly and clearly somewhere on the homepage.

(2) Your search-box will not let me input any text. Windows 7, Chrome 22.0.1.

Edit: So, I misunderstood. I thought you entered a url into homepage, with spat out some type of numerical code, you could then enter into the navigation bar. In particular, I thought you owned a numerical extension, i.e., www.something.11, which you were using to create purely numerical urls.

Actually, the process is as follows: (a) you get a code through the new.php page (linked at the bottom of the homepage), (b) you're give a code, (c) in order go to that website you have to go to your homepage and enter it.

That's ridiculous.

Why would I use that? It adds an unnecessary middle-step to navigating to a website. I'd usually give friends my url directly (which is easy to remember), or say something like "I read a good Economic article recently. Search 'New Progressivism Economist'."

</comment><comment><USER3> This idea has been done to death many times before.

-Someone creates a centralized name/address tuple space (essentially just a key-value store.) -Tuples are claimed from that space. -The value of the remaining address space increases up to a certain point, at which the remaining unclaimed names are too long or annoying, and/or everyone moves on to a different system or service.

</comment><comment><USER4> I enter 42 and press enter.

        Numubot says bad numu. Please confirm and try again.

I am dissapoint.

</comment><comment><USER5> It doesn't say what it is, all I see is a large input box which doesn't accept any keyboard input (Chrome 22.0.1229.94 on OSX ML)

Edit: Ah I see, it accepts numbers only. I'm guessing when you create a 'numu' the user has to go to your website and enter the code to retrieve the web url.. I think your home page should make this more obvious.

</comment><comment><USER6> It's like Bango! numbers, all over again…

[http://bango.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/115/~/what...](http://bango.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/115/~/what- is-a-bango-number%3F)

</comment><comment><USER7> It does not seem to work in IE8 (I am @work and not allowed to install other browsers). What is the goal of Numu please? :-)

</comment><comment><USER8> Awesome. I can store my passwords here. And the icing on the cake? It's so beautiful.

</comment><comment><USER9> reddit comments: [http://www.reddit.com/r/startups/comments/11qkyx/tell_me_why...](http://www.reddit.com/r/startups/comments/11qkyx/tell_me_why_my_website_idea_is_stupid_needs_work/)</comment>


Neural Networks Virtual Study Group - <AUTHOR> http://groups.google.com/group/neural-networks-study-group

<comment><USER2> Seems like a great idea. Would be cool to see more of these...

Of course C# seems like a horrible choice for learning about this sort of stuff, but maybe that's just me.

<comment><USER3> hmm, i don't really think C# has anything to do with it, other than just providing a vehicle for implementation of fundamental ideas of NN theory (imho ofcourse).

in my opinion, using mathematica (or some such) would have been a far saner choice, to get to the essence of the subject. also, a dosage of classical (pioneering ?) work as described in (parallel-distributed-processing vol-1&2) [http://www.amazon.com/Parallel-Distributed-Processing-Vol- Fo...](http://www.amazon.com/Parallel-Distributed-Processing-Vol- Foundations/dp/026268053X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1232857316&sr=1-1), would be just great.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Oy! enough with the neural networks already.

Look, a neural network is not some magic machine that can solve all your classification problems. A good 90% of applications of ANNs I've seen could (read: should) have been replaced with a support vector machine, or a Bayesian classifier, or some other proper statistically principled model.

I swear, I get the impression that people keep coming back to ANNs just because the goddamn name sounds cool.

<comment><AUTHOR> Some of us just don't know what they are or how to use them. I guarantee I'll be forming another study group some time in the future on the other topics you mentioned if they are as broad in application as you say. :)

<comment><USER4> My advice would just be to take a few stats courses. Make sure you're comfortable with your linear algebra inside out. Learn as many numerical methods as possible etc. etc.

In my mind, neural networks should only be used when you're trying to model actual biological systems. Otherwise, one should always use a proper model - since it actually gives insight into what's going on with the system, instead of just being a magic black box. Of course, notice that all commonly used ANN topologies have nothing to do with biology - feed forward, hopfield nets, kohonen maps etc. They have barely any resemblance to how actual neurons behave. Basically, they are just heuristics with a cool sounding name.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> It yells danger to me when only one week of course materials is not "under construction."

</comment><comment><USER6> question: where else can i learn about neural networks and ai?

<comment><USER3> my recommendations (for neural networks) would be as follows:

       - parallel distributed processing (PDP group vol 1 & 2)
       - simon haykin (Neural Networks and Learning Machines)
       - christopher bishop (Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition)</comment></comment>


Is The End of Digital Piracy Nigh? - <AUTHOR> http://www.i4u.com/47024/end-digital-piracy-nigh

<comment><USER2> If anything, this will just force better protocols and more anonymous methods of sharing to do be developed. Piracy will never die, because P2P communication is in the Internet's DNA. The more dramatic the copyright holders' response, the clearer it is just how close we are to seeing the end of copyright as we know it.

Even without copyright content producers can make a living: Spotify is a great step to bypassing music piracy and cloud _services_ like syncing and serving up content can effectively demand payment, but the keyword is _service_. Farmers don't get paid in perpetuity every time anyone sells the same kind of crop as them (even genetically engineered crops can only be patented for 17 years), they actually have to continue to produce - they have to work for a living. So too, will the fat-cat copyright monopolists. For better or worse, copyright is dead - get over it and innovate.

</comment><comment><USER3> He does realize that they already do this, right? I have an email from a friend from around 2006, all in a panic over a notice from Comcast that his IP address had been caught on a not-very-legal torrent.</comment>


Please review Numbrosia puzzle iPhone/iPod touch app (it is free for a limited time) - <AUTHOR>

Not sure what I can improve:
http://www.numbrosia.com
http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=312424712&mt=8&uo=6 <comment><USER2> A few points:

I'm trying to play this on my iPod without wifi. Touching "Puzzles" from the main menu left the application hanging on "Syncing with server..." -- I have to quit the app, start over and figure out to disable server sync.

Then, when I go to "Puzzles" only one shows up -- is this because more need to be downloaded from the server?

I tried playing the puzzle before going through the tutorial. I managed to figure out the controls through trial and error, but the incrementing and decrementing by performing consecutive taps in a particular direction is awkward / unintuitive. No simpler control scheme jumps to mind though.

When I complete the puzzle the options are "Try Again" and "Scorecard". I don't want either of those -- what I want is "Next puzzle".

It's hard to tell from playing only one level, but the emphasis on achieving a high score seems a little misguided -- IMHO the process of solving a puzzle for the first time should be the "meat" of the game -- beating a high score should be extra value / replay value.

Brainstorming: Because the moves are all reversible, it seems like it would be trivial to procedurally generate an unlimited number of levels of gradually increasing difficulty -- start with a blank slate of zeroes and transform the level from there by a certain number of moves (like a Rubick's Cube).

In any case the levels should come built into the app -- I'm left wondering why there seems to be only level available. If I had paid money for this app I would be disappointed for that reason alone.

At this point I'm not sure the best way to spend your time is by improving this app -- maybe take what you've learned from this and apply it to your next project.

My advice would be to focus on simplicity of user interface -- that means controls as well as game logic. One of the pitfalls of my first app (<http://www.itrioapp.com>) was that for people who weren't already familiar with the game Set they had to figure out the game based on the examples I gave them, which didn't seem too hard for me but ended up being an impediment for a lot of people.

All else being equal the iPhone is a casual platform, so people expect a very shallow learning curve and immediate satisfaction -- ideally you should be able to stick the first level in front of any idiot and have them enjoy the game right away. The upside is you don't have to provide an engaging experience that lasts for terribly long -- 5 or 10 minutes is generally fine.

Hope this didn't come across as terribly critical -- I do like some of the things you've done with dialog boxes, animations etc., but it sounds like you're asking for constructive criticism.

<comment><AUTHOR> It comes with 1000 puzzles even if you don't have an internet connection. (In fact, it even comes with a snapshot of the world records.) It should not hang on the sync. Which OS version are you using? Which ipod touch model?

As for why there is no "Next Puzzle", this is intentionally done so that you would look frequently at your scores. Solving lots of puzzles is easy. That's not where the challenge lies.

<comment><USER2> I'm on the 2nd generation Touch with OS 2.2. Here's what I think the problem was: I was on wifi shortly before I tried out Numbrosia so my iPod thought it was online. I can reproduce this at home by turning off my wifi. It goes to the "Syncing with server..." screen for a full minute before deciding it's timed out, during which time it's non-responsive. I didn't let it go for the full minute before; I assumed it was hanging. I would have preferred that the app was responsive during that time -- touching would being up a "Cancel" option or something.

I've also figured out that "Solve new puzzle" on the high scores menu is a button. In retrospect that should have been obvious but at the time my attention was focused on the "Tap row to redo puzzle" instruction -- I expected a list of levels to choose from. I guess you can write that one off to user error.

I've played through a few more levels. The controls, which were awkward at first, are becoming more intuitive. You're right, solving lots of puzzles is easy once you get the hang of it, and the challenge lies in trying to match the world record score. My preference would be that the levels get more difficult to complete as you progress. I'm just brainstorming here -- maybe the player could only have a certain number of moves to complete the level in? That's kind of what it boils down to anyway, trying to match the world record. Aside from that I don't know how much more difficult the levels can get without changing something fundamental to the game mechanics.

I'd say the game looks complete and polished as it is. The puzzle space is a crowded one where users are hesitant to learn a new set of rules unless they know it's going to pay off with rewarding gameplay -- and they often won't know the gameplay will be rewarding until they've tried the game. What I've been trying to do myself is to produce app after app rather than work on revising an app after it's out -- I've found I improve the quality of my output more rapidly by starting new projects from scratch rather than improving on already-finished projects. I look forward to seeing what you do next!</comment></comment></comment>


Comedian Jim Gaffigan following Louis CK's sales model - <AUTHOR> http://www.whosay.com/jimgaffigan/content/218011?code=cjN1qtN

<comment><USER2> It's working: I had never heard of this guy before.</comment>


What I Wish I Knew Before I Started My Company - <AUTHOR> http://randfishkin.com/blog/42/what-i-wish-i-knew-before-i-started-my-company <comment><USER2> Interesting article. But I'll wager this advice is harder to follow than it seems.

For example, he mentions that the founder should at some point concentrate on the business and not on the "grunt work". While this is obviously true, the point in your business's life at which you decide to stop coding is of critical importance. Another founder could well give the advice "don't be afraid to get stuck in", or "beware of retreating to your ivory tower", and their advice would be equally valid.

As always, the key is balance.

<comment><USER3> "While this is obviously true, the point in your business's life at which you decide to stop coding is of critical importance."

Just to clearify, when Rand says "grunt-level work" he means SEO and not coding. Early on at SEOmoz the coding was done by a guy y'all might know as "The Oatmeal."

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> As someone who has been laid off by Rand Fishkin himself, it feels REALLY weird for me to read this article.

</comment><comment><USER4> Here's my advice:

Know what your employees want to do with their lives.

Then, if you need to let someone go, you can help them reach their next step, rather than "giving them the boot".

Not only is it an opportunity to someone's life better as their boss. One of the perks of working at McKinsey is that its alumni go on to do great things. You can capitalize on that too.

</comment><comment><USER5> I recommend anyone running a startup listen to this advice. Rand has been one of the biggest influences on my business thinking and has helped me immeasurably in growing our business.

I have watched him learn many of these lessons, tried to learn them myself and look forward to much learning to come.

Off-topic - I love the mythbusters video linked from the "Humor" tab.

</comment><comment><USER6> For companies that interface with another business to reach customers, another thing to consider is that a happy intermediary rarely implies a happy customer. Knowing your end user better than you know an intermediary's official requirements, not just better than you know yourself, makes for an even more meaningful success.

Think Apple's choice to give up a Verizon partnership rather than let them interfere with the iPhone's OS. Despite that move, I hear the fruit company is doing pretty okay.</comment>


Will Computers Ever Replace Teachers? - <AUTHOR> http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/07/will-computers-ever-replace-teachers.html

<comment><AUTHOR> Discussion point: "We're pretty good at testing the kinds of things that intelligent tutors can teach, but we're not nearly as good at testing the kinds of things that the labor market increasingly rewards."

</comment><comment><USER2> Betteridge's Law of Headlines applies, without even reading the article.</comment>


Outraged eBay sellers plan boycott - <AUTHOR> http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/smbusiness/ebay_boycott.fsb/index.htm?postversion=2008021009

<comment><USER2> When, oh, when will someone develop a decent competitor to Ebay? The site is awful and is ripe for a startup to carve away market share. They've already proven the business model. We know it makes money. I know the boys at auctomatic are doing their best to help out, but what's needed is a full on competitor.

I mean, really. How hard is it to offer a couple of decent looking templates for people to make their own site, to that it isn't such an eyesore? How hard is it to implement a better form of search and categorization? How hard is it to develop a form of authentication to cut down on all the fraud that takes place on Ebay?

The last time I used Ebay or thought it was decent was back in 97-98. The site hasn't changed much since.

We should have a challenge to see who can develop the best Ebay competitor.

<comment><USER3> _The last time I used Ebay or thought it was decent was back in 97-98. The site hasn't changed much since._

Someone who consulted there told me that eBay's codebase was a mess (even by the usual standards) and that they had some strange processes that made it worse. If I recall correctly, programmers weren't allowed to work in teams and were frequently 'rotated' through completely unrelated projects. He told me some other weird things that I don't remember, but that combined to form an impression that eBay's culture is really inimical to hackers. That would explain their technical stagnation. But overwhelming market share gives them powerful inertia.

<comment><USER4> Back in the 1998 at Yahoo we used to hear shocking things about how bad eBay's systems were. One of the externally visible signs was their policy of having several hours a week of scheduled downtime. That seemed just inexcusable. Do they still do that?

I think the reason eBay is so inept is that they were a monopoly almost from the beginning. So at a stage when other startups (Google for example) had to work hard to succeed, they were already coasting, at least technically.</comment></comment></comment>


Show HN: Arbbot – Open Source Bitcoin/Altcoin Arbitrage Trading Bot - <AUTHOR> https://github.com/opencryptotrader/arbbot <comment><USER2> Is there an easy way to see how much profit this bot actually makes?

<comment><AUTHOR> For me personally, the bot has been generating 1-3% daily profits for the past few months. I guess the best metric would be monitoring the take-profit address.

<comment><USER3> Is there anyway you can put this back up? Apparently github has taken it down</comment></comment></comment>