Texas man charged with running $60M Bitcoin Ponzi scheme - <AUTHOR> http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/23/texas-man-charged-with-running-60m-bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/

<comment><USER3> I remember when egold was a big thing, and every other site called itself a 'HYIP', high yield investment program -- they were _all_ ponzi schemes, but the popularity of the larger ones spawned an entire ecosystem of these sites that were propelled only on the naive fantasies of those buying in to them. People truly believed that these programs worked.

<comment><USER4> I recently heard about HYIP for the first time and did some reading - <USER2> amount of self-deception I saw was breathtaking. There were even sites that rated HYIPs by their "investment" structure and current payout status. People _knew_ it was a Ponzi scheme and still believed that they could profit.

Truly, money eats brains.

<comment><USER5> Those HYIP forums felt, to me at least, like it was Ponzi meta-investing. Many of the HYIPs paid out for a little while to encourage more 'investments'. So the part of the game was to get into early ones, but then get your money out before it closed.

<comment><USER4> So there were absolutely no differences to "normal" Ponzi schemes, except the participants went into into fully knowing what it was, but believing they knew how to beat the odds.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> The sad part is that for a long time the 7% per week he promised was actually possible with arbitrage if you knew what you were doing (though probably not at the scale he was operating at). There are a few more lawsuits/prosecutions likely in the pipeline - Bitinstant for one.

<comment><USER7> Why Bitinstant?

<comment><USER6> They turned into a quasi-Ponzi scheme earlier this year. Until they shut down, they delaying orders, in some cases by months, and using money from new orders to pay for the old pending orders. Who knows where the money from the old pending orders went.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> Previous discussion: [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6091412](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6091412)

<comment><USER9> And the bitcointalk thread: [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=108282.0](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=108282.0)

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> The SEC press release is at [http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/137...](http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370539730583#.Ue9eOTOJDna)

</comment><comment><USER11> Hmm... was expecting an article on Butterfly Labs.

</comment><comment><USER12> I ask why, if he got 4.5 in investments and it grew to 60, why not just pay back investors the 7% and still pocket some nice earnings?

<comment><USER13> Perhaps his debt was in bitcoins, so it also increased (as priced in USD)

<comment><USER14> That is correct.

Trendon's whole scheme would have worked if the price of bitcoin had started falling, instead of rising so much.

<comment><USER14> No, really, the debt to depositors was owed in bitcoins. Don't know why I'm getting downvoted. It is a fact.

<comment><USER15> If he convert all bitcoin to USD and bitcoin value went down, he can the previous USD to buy the promised bitcoin and payback.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER16> So why does the title indicate it's a $60M scheme when the value of it is in bitcoins?

Unless, of course, bitcoins themselves have no intrinsic value of their own, and are only worth something when converted to USD.

Which they are, outside of a few small-scale incentives.

<comment><USER17> The title used USD because it's a newspaper that is trying to communicate the news to people, and is avoiding the jargon that night not be widely understood. Don't read too much into it.</comment></comment>


How Etsy became America's unlikeliest breadbasket - <AUTHOR> https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-etsy-became-americas-unlikeliest-breadbasket-11589601602 <comment><USER2> Unfortunately, most states restrict online sales under the cottage food law due to safety concerns. The article portraits a seller in West Virginia, and it was just in 2019 that a change in their cottage food regulations made it possible to take online orders and ship food. I hope more states will take a look at this and check if this is a successful model they could apply too.

<comment><USER3> How is it that companies like Uber and AirBnB can get away with breaking laws and ignoring regulations, while Etsy can't?

<comment><USER4> Arguably it's safety related - arguably it's also food industrial complex actively suppressing it to prevent the competition.

<comment><USER5> I would guess more of the latter.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> > From 2013 to 2018, 10 states passed so-called "cottage food laws" allowing > home bakers to legally sell their goods in a variety of venues, including > online, says Emily Broad Leib, faculty director of the Harvard Law School > Food Law and Policy Clinic. Many other states amended existing food laws.

I wasn't aware of this, I thought you needed to have a licensed kitchen. Neat!

<comment><USER7> No not neat.

My cousin is a restaurant inspector and the horror stories she has told even for professional kitchens is unbelievable. The apathy and greed of some is going to kill people some day.

Rice is one of the worst foods. Your choice is to keep it super hot or in a flat tray and chilled. There's a natural bacteria that grows if the rice is in a bowel and isn't hot anymore. I looked it up: bacillus cereus.

Soap is another it's incredible how many kitchens have no soap. The inspector arrives and then there is a scramble to find some soap. But it makes you think how many people had a crap and just went back to work without washing their hands with soap.

<comment><USER8> Like it or not, people are eating mass amounts of home-cooked zero-inspection food every day. Letting a little bit of that get sold for profit isn't a major risk.

> Rice is one of the worst foods. Your choice is to keep it super hot or in a > flat tray and chilled.

These laws generally apply to shelf-stable foods. So not rice.

> Soap is another it's incredible how many kitchens have no soap. The > inspector arrives and then there is a scramble to find some soap. But it > makes you think how many people had a crap and just went back to work > without washing their hands with soap.

Isn't that the exact kind of problem that would be _less_ likely in a home environment?

<comment><USER9> > Letting a little bit of that get sold for profit isn't a major risk.

This sounds _exactly_ like the sort of thing where statistics are how you get an answer. And, googling a bit, there's answers. Or at least details.

At some point, all food was like this, and AFAIK that day was at least as recent as the 1800s. Right? I wonder when the first time a "food inspector" (in the modern sense) was a thing.

<comment><USER10> It's much older than that, food standards go way back. England's rather famous Assize of Bread and Ale regulating quality dates to 1266. There is likely thousands of years of history around bakers or brewers trying to save money and laws or customs designed to regulate it. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assize_of_Bread_and_Ale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assize_of_Bread_and_Ale)

That said, the knowledge of pathogens is relatively recent ~1670s which ended up changing many rules. Historically food safety was a major issue that killed a lot of people. But, it's not really something most people know much about.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> About 5 years ago a Russian waitress at a restaurant in Queens revealed to me a vast non-English network of home cooks in the NYC area selling their wares on Facebook.

I'm pretty sure that channel got shut down but am pleased to think they have found others that still work.

If and when it becomes legal it's a really interesting market.

<comment><USER12> Facebook has a ton of hidden/private groups selling things. I know of several local to me, and I'm in a fairly rural area. All of them violate Facebook policy, and some are outright illegal. It's interesting to watch!

<comment><USER13> I'm always surprised finding illegal stuff on facebook.

It's strange that

1) people think facebook is a good platform to do these things on

2) they don't get shut down and handed over to the police

People keep asking for online surveillance to prevent this but in the places we already have it (eg. facebook) crime often isn't stopped.

<comment><USER14> > 2) they don't get shut down and handed over to the police

Do you mean the same police defeated over and over in the war on drugs should be dispatched to put a 70 years old grand'ma trying to make a few $$ selling an apple pie on Facebook.

People are not asking for online surveillance, elected (and non-elected) official are trying to put in place the level of surveillance you're mentioning to secure their power. But I totally understand that the barter economy is acting against their plan.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> [https://archive.md/ZT3fN](https://archive.md/ZT3fN)

</comment><comment><USER16> I wonder when Etsy will stop firing employees without severance packages and blackballing them in technology for months to years because they ask too many questions.

<comment><USER17> I've never heard of any company that has fired someone (which usually implies that it was with cause, as opposed to a lay-off, which does not imply a cause, but rather that the company needed to do cost cutting) giving them a severance package.

And I really doubt Etsy has the clout to blackball anyone in the technology industry.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> In our county, you are not allowed to make home made baked goods for school functions (classroom birthday party, or whatever). Only choice is to send in baked goods from walmart or whatever. The concern seems to be food allergens.

Go figure. Many people make food at home because they cannot eat the stuff produced commercially, or want a healthier alternative.

In the US, soybeans are ubiquitous in baked goods (vegetable oil is usually soybean oil), and they're a top 5 food allergen. It is rare to find commercially baked goods that do not have them.

When did getting food from strangers with ingredients you can barely pronounce become safer than from your neighbor?

<comment><USER19> Probably at the same time that people realized that have barely pronounceable ingredients is better than having entirely unknown ingredients that inevitably wind up giving a kid a severe allergic reaction.

The pronounceability of a name doesn't make it safer. Compare dihydrogen monoxide (water) to dihydrogen dioxide (H2O2, a toxic chemical).

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> I wonder how they make biscuits that hold their quality through shipping?

<comment><USER21> Seal them in a bag in a bag with a desiccant pack.

A wide range of nice cookies and crackers get shipped out of Japan to the USA, individually wrapped and then sealed in a bag with desiccant, and keep perfectly well for months as long as they are in the package. As soon as you unpack them they go stale like everything else.

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> Can we stop posting links that require a paywall?</comment>


Improve IT Operational Excellence with Game Days - <AUTHOR> https://blog.flux7.com/improve-it-operational-excellence-with-game-days <comment><USER2> This is really helpful, especially in getting feedback from the team and using those feedback to improvise on things which are already implemented.

</comment><comment><USER3> This is great stuff, thanks for sharing.

</comment><comment><USER4> This is a great exercise to improve your team.

<comment><AUTHOR> What was the best finding in your experience?

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> best way to go agile</comment>


Detroit Bar Serves Michigan's First Cannabis-Derived Cocktail - <AUTHOR> https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/2019/01/25/cannabis-cocktails-arrive-royal-oak/2670778002/ <comment><USER2> I've noticed CBD soda for sale at some of the local beer places. It'll be interesting to see how CBD sales grow over the next few years. Hopefully we'll start to see some studies on the effectiveness on CBD for the myriad of aliments I hear it helps for.

</comment><comment><USER3> Damn, that website has some impressively obnoxious ads.</comment>


Clojure implemented on top of Python - <AUTHOR> https://github.com/eigenhombre/PyClojure <comment><USER2> I know it's irrational, but I tend to avoid JVM languages after some bad past experiences. (Yes, I know, Java is great, and the JVM is vastly improved! I said it's irrational.)

On the other hand, I've been wanting to learn Clojure. It'd be nice to see this project mature.

<comment><USER3> Well the aim of this project seems to be to avoid the start up time of the JVM so clojure can be used for scripting.

<comment><USER4> And also to "make use of [Python's] extensive, 'batteries included' libraries"

That's what seems the real benefit of it to me. Maybe Python will become not just a language, but a platform, like JVM or CLR, supporting multiple languages.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> If complaining about the startup times of JVM then i believe a solution exists laready i.e. ClojureScript running on top of Node.Js be a better fit?

<comment><USER6> > i believe [...] ClojureScript running on top of Node.Js be a better fit?

Why? Python is likely to be installed in far more environment than Node, and for scripting, Clj on top of Python provides the faster startup of Python interpreters without the callback spaghetti inherent to Node. Because even if Clojure(Script) handles functions better than Javascript (both in verbosity — fns are no more verbose than lets — and in its scoping handling) it's still callback spaghetti.

<comment><USER5> Why ClojureScript? because it is much closer to feature complete, tested, supported by the core team yada yada

<comment><USER6> > Why ClojureScript?

No, why is clojurescript a better fit (than clojure, running on Python)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> Why reimplement all of clojure as an interpreter? Why not just rewrite the java parts in python and compile to bytecode? Honest question.

<comment><USER8> Actually a better path would have been to hack on the ClojureScript compiler that compiles to JavaScript and fork it to compile to Python, most of the core stuff is implemented with ClojureScript primitives (like seq library, collections, atoms, etc.) so there would be substantially less work starting from there.

</comment></comment><comment><USER9> Initially when I first saw this I thought "nice but...really?" then I read the blurb about writing scripts/automating system tasks and remembered the pain of the JVM startup.

Will definitely be keeping an eye on this.

</comment><comment><USER10> To solve the clojure script startup time: <http://www.martiansoftware.com/nailgun/> "Nailgun is a client, protocol, and server for running Java programs from the command line without incurring the JVM startup overhead."

I only know about since vimclojure uses it (to good effect, so it obviously works fine with Clojure).

<comment><USER11> Also consider clojurescript on node.js, might be more worth the effort than a python implementation at this point.

</comment></comment><comment><USER12> An insane idea: run this on top of CLPython on top of ABCL on top of the JVM.

<comment><USER13> Yeah and let's get it to compile down to XML!

<comment><USER14> I wouldn't even go there.

I worked on an ecommerce project in the early 00's which compiled a high level turing complete DSL (not that far from LISP TBH) to XML and then used a virtual machine written in Java to run the XML. I've never seen a language in which the compiler output was 2 orders of magnitude larger than the source code.

I really don't know how anyone came to the conclusion that any of that was a good idea.

I still have nightmares about that.

<comment><USER15> >I've never seen a language in which the compiler output was 2 orders of magnitude larger than the source code.

Ever used SWIG, or qt designer, or anything else that compiles to a source code format? (heck, I can only assume most of those languages-that-compile-to- javascript must be similar)

(not that that makes your project any less bad)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER16> I wonder what happened to Shen (<http://www.lambdassociates.org/Shen/newappeal.htm>). From the blurb, __This function set defined a Lisp that was much smaller than Common Lisp, in fact, much more like John McCarthy's Lisp 1.5 which is the distant ancestor of all subsequent Lisps.... I went further and suggested that this small Lisp could probably be mapped into many of the Lisp-like successors to Lisp like Python, Clojure and Javascript. This meant that because Qi was bootstrapped, these mappings could be used port Qi into other platforms"

Actually come to think of it, what ever happened to clojure-in-clojure [1] - that would have made implementing clojure on top of any VM, relatively trivial

[1] <http://blog.n01se.net/?p=41>

</comment><comment><USER17> While I appreciate the sentiment, Python isn't exactly the fastest language out there. But, if you have to do it, I'd suggest compiling to the Python AST and emitting bytecode.

<comment><USER18> Or restricting oneself to RPython and reap all the benefits of PyPy's JIT basically for free.

<comment><USER19> I was thinking of doing just that last weekend. I look forward to start soon and hopefully use some of the infrastructure/ideas of this python implementation.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> how does it implement clojure's lazy sequences? does it manage to map them to generators?

<comment><USER21> From a cursory glance at <https://github.com/eigenhombre/PyClojure/blob/master/core.py> it doesn't do anything with the lists yet, other than having a list class which stores the values.

As far as lazy goes, how does clojure does it? Thunks? The implementer can opt for thunks or generators(doesn't generator serve as an higher level abstraction to manually "thunk and force") as far as Python implementation goes.

<comment><USER20> i have no idea how clojure is implemented, but i guess i always assumed that they were implemented as iterators.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER22> oh JVM startup time isn't that terrible, but this is cool.

<comment><USER23> Yes, it is. When I compare red-green-refactor cycles between Ruby and Clojure, and I've got sub-second turnaround in one and 5+seconds in the other, it's painfully bad.

<comment><USER22> Sounds like you need a slice of cake.

<comment><USER22> Not sure about the -1. Cake is a clj build tool that would help alleviate the severity of JVM startup cost...</comment></comment></comment></comment>


Buxfer features as one of the promising social money startups in Wall Street Journal - <AUTHOR> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118177906703834565.html
<comment><USER2> Congrats, guys! Getting in the WSJ is a HUGE accomplishment, and you should be extremely proud.

</comment><comment><USER3> Nice work. NetworthIQ (that's me) also made the article. Good times for all.

</comment><comment><USER4> good job buxfers!

<comment><AUTHOR> thanks, bryan!</comment></comment>


Ask HN: What are OK tasks for a freelancer to bill? - <AUTHOR>

I'm currently working with a (good) freelance designer via oDesk, however she has spent quite some time installing/configuring her system in order to work on my project (git, python, mysql, installtion problems etc). She already billed more than $300 for that and given I'm spending my hard-earned money, it's a bit hard to swallow. She also billed time for looking at inspiration websites in order to get a feel of what needs to be done.<p>Do you consider it normal for a freelancer to bill for inspiration research/system installation? <comment><USER2> I would consider anything on the path of providing you with your end result billable by the hour. Especially spending time setting up her environment according to your specifications. If you're not providing her with detailed instructions on what you want done (ux / ui design), then you're asking her to come up with the design, which takes time.

<comment><AUTHOR> Ok. It's a bit frustrating, and considering the rate freelancers charge, I thought it was only time working _on the project_. But yeah, she would not install these parts if she didn't need it for my project, so it's a bit blurry... :-)

I have detailed instructions, but it's more a matter of being able to work together with source control (rather than upload html->integration, change html->me doing the diff with my current output->integration etc).

thanks for your opinion.</comment></comment>


Ben Huh offers to buy Reddit - <AUTHOR> http://thedailywh.at/post/1021998482/stop-what-youre-doing-and-read-the-hell-out-of

<comment><USER2> Is this guy actually in a position to follow through or is he just cleverly using the controversy to further his own goal without an actual intent to commit? I take it reddit would not be sold for 'pocket change'.

<comment><USER3> I suspect Ben Huh is _definitely_ in a position to follow through.

<comment><USER2> Good, so how come he didn't follow protocol on this? After all, after such a stunt CN is likely going to give him the cold shoulder just for that. I can't imagine they're happy about this if he's for real.

The redditors have been at odds with CN pretty much since day 5 of the take over or so, and every time I hear about them it's something like this.

If they were going to dump reddit you'd think they would have done so long ago.

<comment><USER4> I'm guessing that he thinks if it continues like this CN is going to start actively looking to divest themselves of Reddit.

By posting like this he's making it even worse for them in terms of publicity so there is a good chance they'll want to do so more.

The two outcomes in this situation seem to be:

A) The nature of the offer and the awkward position it puts CN in causes them to take a lower offer sooner than they might otherwise.

B) Offer never amounts to anything beyond a bit of free publicity for a few of Ben Huh's sites.

So in either case Ben Huh comes out ahead and didn't have to invest masses of time in "serious" dealing that might have lead to him getting Reddit but for a higher price.

<comment><USER2> That's a good explanation.

I figure if Conde Nast is going to sell reddit they'll want a premium compared to what they paid for it, given the growth of reddit that could be a substantial premium.

I believe they paid something like 12.5 million (But I've also seen much higher figures, also unsubstantiated).

So my guess is that if they do want to divest they'll sound out the higher segment of the market first to see if there are any takers.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> Please don't use CN as shorthand in these comments as it's short for both Conde Nast and Cheezburger Network.

\- on behalf of the Society for the Elimination of Ambiguity.

<comment><USER6> CN > CN

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> am I the only redditor that doesn't want this guy to buy the site?

CN may be bad, but this guy isn't exactly the epitome of professionalism

(edit: also not sure if the reddit guys will be up for both cheeseburger owners and cheeseburger wages: [http://gawker.com/5488509/inside-the- low+paying-cheezburger-...](http://gawker.com/5488509/inside-the-low+paying- cheezburger-empire))

<comment><USER8> Disclaimer: I worked at Cheezburger, I know and love Ben. He doesn't appear to the epitome of professionalism, but that's part of his shtick as "the zany lolcat guy". He's actually a remarkable guy in a lot of ways. As arrogant as this may sound, he's one of the few people I've ever known who could take my ideas and reliably make them _better_. He's said some stupid things on his blog, but that's just a part of life.

The gawker article was pure tabloid junk, quoting anonymous sources who were disgruntled ex-employees. Compensation was always at market rates, entry-level positions had entry-level pay, while professional positions had professional pay.

He's not perfect, he's young and is still making mistakes (I still think firing me was a big mistake, for example, but I can't really talk about that) but don't discount his professionalism.

<comment><USER9> It is reasonably impressive to find someone who can leave the people he _fires_ talking about how great he is.

<comment><USER10> Yeah, that bit made me double take the content of what he was writing. Before it just seemed like a fanboy, now, it seems quite genuine. Of course, that could be the best troll ever too :)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> _Reddit would benefit from more resources and less corporate interference. We can offer all of the above._

How does working in the sweatshop that is the Cheezburger Network = less coporate interference?

Edit for clarification: <http://www.google.com/search?q=cheezburger+network+sweatshop>

<comment><USER12> I'm curious, why Cheezburger Network is a sweatshop? Any experience first hand? or employees there blog about how sucky the company is?

<comment><USER8> I worked at Cheezburger until a few months ago. Here's the deal with the sweatshop charges. It comes down to three items.

1\. Disgruntled ex-employees are disgrunted. 2\. Entry-level positions are entry-level. 3\. Sleazy tabloids are sleazy.

While I worked there (as an experienced developer, not a fresh-out-of-college content moderator) I was a "real" employee (not contract) and I made a very decent wage, especially considering it's at least nominally a tech startup. (I wouldn't describe it as a tech startup but that's a different story).

<comment><USER13> You really _did_ work at CN, given that accent/logic.

restating the hypothesis == proof. I love it.

<comment><USER8> Thanks for noticing.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> I wonder if Ben Huh is nodex? [http://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/cnth8/making_...](http://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/cnth8/making_ends_meet_tldr_remember_that_joke_about/c0twf3m)

<comment><USER15> nodex posted this in that thread: "I would hate to see it get done the wrong way though and become hyper-commercialized and end up being an ad laden site with only pictures of cats..."

Eerily prophetic I fear, if this Ben Huh guy gets his hands on reddit.

<comment><USER16> Yeah, he's the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen to the site.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> He's probably got it in his mind that CN would be willing to dump it for $3 million or some other low ball number.

Reddit was purchased for something like $15 million. I doubt they'd sell it for less than $30 million (if at all). This guy is just tilting at windmills.

<comment><USER18> I'm not sure, CN seems fundamentally unable to figure out how to make Reddit into a profitable venture. It wouldn't be the first startup purchased by a large corporate entity to be sold off for less than the initial purchase price.

<comment><USER2> But reddit has grown enormously in that time. So the potential has grown as well, the fact that CN can't make it work is not going to stop some other party from trying very hard.

What's interesting is that they can't monetize it at this traffic level, even with _only_ four employees.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER19> He also offered to buy my reasonably successful blog for $200. True story.

<comment><USER2> Reminds me of the weekly offers I get for ww.com: "I see that you are not using your domain and we were wondering if you would sell it. We can offer you [insert 5 random figures here] and we would like to use escrow.com please reply asap."

[delete].

<comment><USER20> For their benefit i must admit i would have thought ww.com is some parked domain-squatter from a cursory glance if I didn't know better :)

The design looks a bit similar to a lot of these types of parked domains.

<comment><USER2> How so? That homepage has a 1% bouncerate...

<comment><USER20> White background, very minimal, just a bunch of text and some links- none of that is bad of course, it's just that my brain has been condition to interpret these cues as a parked domain that I reached because of a typo.

Quick examples:

[http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_61OWU2tC3nY/SbOgGfx01eI/AAAAAAAAAj...](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_61OWU2tC3nY/SbOgGfx01eI/AAAAAAAAAjU/4vCu3vX0HH0/s320/Adsense- parked-domains.png)

[http://blogoscoped.com/files/google-parked-domain- screenshot...](http://blogoscoped.com/files/google-parked-domain- screenshot.png)

[http://www.donmak.com/wordpress/wp- content/uploads/2008/07/g...](http://www.donmak.com/wordpress/wp- content/uploads/2008/07/godaddy-parked-page.jpg)

<http://www.apogee-web-consulting.com/images/rumcakes-ads.jpg>

<http://gopgle.com/>

<comment><USER2> That's food for thought. Thanks, I never looked at it through your eyes so it's hard to figure out what someone else sees as a 'first impression'.

I'm actually working with someone on improving the site, I'll definitely pass this on.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> All web entrepreneurs hurry up before the controversy dies. You too can profit from this mess up.

<comment><USER2> Pretty cheap, really. If you're serious about an acquisition you first approach the target and if you both agree to go public you go public. Anything else is just a publicity stunt, or at a minimum smells strongly like one.

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> Well, this is getting very interesting.</comment>


Japanese Anime Studios Feel Pressure From Unhappy Artists and Outsourcing  - <AUTHOR> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703819904574551834260925714.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond

<comment><USER2> The industry is also very, very good at milking a megahit but hasn't had a new one in about ten years. The usual pattern is that a successful manga series gets turned into an anime and after that it is off to the races: toys, movies, many different video games, spinoffs and all that jazz.

However, my casual judge-by-the-contents-of-the-rental-rack guess is that the newest megahits are over ten years old at this point. (Before Bleach and Naruto got big in America they were _big_ in Japan. Big like "qualify as industries unto themselves" big.) Both of them are actually animated in Korea, incidentally. (And, oddly enough, both are quite "high tech" in terms of animation techniques. It is sort of the series' aesthetic.)

Incidentally, Youtube isn't the enemy of Japanese DVD sales. Rentals are. Japan does distribution really freaking well: there are about three or four companies with reach as good as Netflixes, plus plenty rental chains stocked with up-to-the-minute DVD releases. Here's the math: $200 for a 4 DVD boxed set or $8 to rent them all. Not hard to figure which one wins out. (Or you could go rent a big screen TV and a comfy chair at an Internet cafe for $2 to $4 an hour and get the DVDs loaned to you for free.)

<comment><USER3> Yeah they do know how to milk their hits. There are already 9 One Piece movies and another one releasing next month. To top it off the series has been running for fourteen years.

That said, getting a hit series is not really an easy thing for authors (mangakas). They work about 14 hours everyday and have to produce 19 pages of content every week. The gruelling workload takes a toll on a lot of mangaka's health, forcing the series into a hiatus, which further reduces their chance of becoming hits.

Youtube might not be much of a problem within Japan, but it certainly hurts the overseas profits. Also Japanese studios are incredibly lax when it comes to enforcing copyrights. They usually let fansubbers and scanlation groups get away with pirating weekly chapter releases in the hopes that this would encourage people into buying the volume releases when they are available.

<comment><USER4> _Yeah they do know how to milk their hits. There are already 9 One Piece movies and another one releasing next month. To top it off the series has been running for fourteen years._ '

To say nothing of Gundam...

 _That said, getting a hit series is not really an easy thing for authors (mangakas). They work about 14 hours everyday and have to produce 19 pages of content every week. The gruelling workload takes a toll on a lot of mangaka's health, forcing the series into a hiatus, which further reduces their chance of becoming hits._

And often even when something does become a hit, it creates its own problems: for example, from what I heard, the author of Death Note planned to end the story at what eventually became the halfway point. Instead his publishers told him that it had become so popular that they wanted him to make more of it, and so he dragged it on for a whole bunch more chapters.

There's also the fact that a huge number--probably the majority--of authors don't seem to care too much about making huge hits. Just look at the sheer volume of doujin productions: nobody there ever intends to even make enough money to pay for their own time, yet there's probably more doujin manga than professionally published stuff.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> There are two kinds of anime, and they're very similar to the two kinds of personal computers we have today. Studio Ghibli produces the kind of anime that's identifiable to Apple products—it's high-quality, expensive, has its own style, and is aimed at a very wide audience, sometimes ending up in American theaters. Additionally, the content (software) produced to go along with the format (hardware) is developed in-house.

Meanwhile, most other anime producers are like PC manufacturers—they compete to produce a commodity as cheaply as possible. First, they're adapting manga that has already been written, illustrated, published, marketed, and merchandised, so the customer development half of their business doesn't need doing. They simply churn out adaptations of the books they receive, and people tune in; it's a pre-made market.

Second, people don't _care_ about the visual quality of anime. It's great when it's exceptional (I can only think of Ghibli work and FLCL at the moment), but no one expects it to be. Mostly, anime-watchers tune in to experience a visual dramatization of a story that couldn't be executed in live-action without a ridiculous budget. Things in space, giant robots, fantasy creatures that aren't just actors with bumpy foreheads, etc. They don't expect great visuals, just the bare minimum needed to understand what's going on, so they can enjoy the story without having to imagine the narrative themselves (and though they do still end up having to read the dialogue, this doesn't require any form of visual imagination.)

Given these two factors—that the studio's only job is to adapt a manga to the screen, and that they may do this as badly as possible and still not lose any of their following—it's no surprise that it's a process that has been outsourced and reduced to manufacturing "more work with longer hours = better" conditions.

</comment><comment><USER6> Japan did a significant amount of outsourcing work for American studios as recently as the 1990's, but that definitely isn't the case now, and I think that's an important distinction. While a number of things can be blamed, I would pin the main problem on how anime studios have historically tended to stay behind the curve in the use of labor-saving technology. (Compare against American animation, which has fairly enthusiastically taken on 3D, vector animation, digital matte, etc., as soon as they've been commercialized) It's a sustainable practice while you're in an up-and-comer economy and the local labor is cheap or impossible to match anywhere else, but it's much harder to swallow when China and Korea are putting out equally competent work at bargain rates. When the outsourcing market left Japan, you are left with the current situation where the local labor force is squeezed dry building low-revenue products for the leftover niches. There's some great stuff coming from it, artistically speaking, but the business won't last as-is.

The future for Japanese animation will probably have to come from the American playbook - lower scale, more technology, and more diverse revenue streams.

</comment><comment><USER7> The lack of vitality in the Japanese animation industry's fairly old news at this point. What we're seeing now is decidedly not an overnight thing - it's the end result of about a decade's worth of bad policy-making, starting from an inability to adapt to online distribution, hovering with emphasis over the craptastic wages that are driving away decent talent, and ending with the industry's hypernarrow demographic targeting.

Just because any individual otaku is probably willing to spend untold amount of money on miscellaneous merchandise doesn't mean it was a good idea to ignore the overwhelmingly larger demographic of Everybody Else...

<comment><USER8> On the other hand, it has often seemed like anime has been one of the few professional entertainment industries devoted to trying to make money off the Long Tail.

<comment><USER7> That begs the question of whether or not the studios attempting to do so are in a /position/ to do so.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> This pattern of low quality competitors upping their game and taking over a large chunk of an industry has occurred again and again and difficulties associated with that pattern feel a bit inevitable. The best situation for Japanese producers might be to get smaller and refocus as content creation over large scale production.

There's other areas to innovate as well. Studio Ghibli, the acclaimed studio behind Spirited Away, is collaborating with critically acclaimed video game studio Level 5 on a video game.

</comment><comment><USER10> 300 frames a month? Even if they are key-frames that still only comes out to 5 minutes of footage. No wonder it's dieing. Everyone else (not Japanese) is using animation software to create an entire movie. In this day and age there is no excuse to still be hand drawing cells. Proper wireframing can get you an entire scene rough cut in a day. Even less if you have an asset library built up.

<comment><USER11> It depends on how the drawings are used. You can easily squeeze ten seconds of footage out of three _finished cels_ , if it's a wide pan over a couple characters talking in the distance -- which is both efficient and cinematic. And this type of shot is common in anime for precisely this reason.

Gainax is one of the past masters/worst offenders in this regard, including: a sequence near the end of Evangelion where they just shot _the back_ of a bunch of old cels; a off-screen sex scene near the end of Evangelion where a shot of only the background plate is held for at least a minute; back-to-back clip shows in Kare Kano, where they show cel counts for each prior show to pad for time -- one episode had 2300 cels (that's total cels, not just keys).</comment></comment>


Ask HN: Just me, or are there more [dead] submissions on Hacker News lately? - <AUTHOR>

I'm newish to HN, but this week it seems I've seen more [dead] submissions (right now there are 5 on the New page), and more [deleted] comments.<p>Did something change recently on the administrative end, or is the difference on the community side? <comment><USER2> In addition to the big increase in spam and off-topic stuff lately, usually from accounts that just signed up to spam us, dupes have become a _lot_ more common from old-timers. Not sure why that is. The volume of stuff making it to the front page is still low enough for it to be easy to check the past three days or so before submitting something.

<comment><AUTHOR> I wonder also if new users are also more apt to have an itchy reporting finger though. For example, yesterday a pretty benign Noam Chomsky link, already sitting with active comments, got killed (it was later restored).

<comment><USER2> Yeah, there was a bit of a kerfuffle over whether that was the sort of thing that we as a community care about. I didn't read that particular article or the discussion (I find Noam Chomsky to be...benign in his absurdity), but it seemed interesting to other folks, so I didn't mind it.

This meta-discussion is actually kinda weird and doesn't really fit the character of the place, either.

Maybe we shouldn't encourage this sort of thing, and just let the votes and editors do their jobs.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> I've noticed this too, for what seems like the past 2 months or so. This is just a passive observation, though. Most [dead] links seem to be from users who are either brand new or who have 1 karma point - basically bots, it seems.

</comment><comment><USER4> the more popular the community gets, the more spam and non-related stuff gets submitted.

turn off showdead in your profile.</comment>


The API myth - <AUTHOR> http://romy.posterous.com/the-api-myth

<comment><USER2> One of the key benefits of no craigslist API is missing.

By forcing everyone to use the same crappy interface, they prevent power shoppers from snapping up the best deals and diluting the quality of the postings. It's hard to find good stuff on craigslist, but it's equally hard for everyone, so the common folk have a decent shot at it, which keeps them coming back.

I love that craigslist operates this way because it's so antithetical to everything silicon valley stands for, and yet they are phenomenally successful.

<comment><USER3> Craigslist shopping can go ahead and continue being craigslist shopping; it's unique and different, and has its niche. However, most people I know use craigslist for other things than shopping, where the value of something isn't quite as clear—rooms for rent, personals, job offers and the like. No one's going to be "snapping up" a personal ad with an automated interface, except for the paysite spammers who already do by one hack or another. However, creating an interface that gave these posts more structure both going in and coming out would be great for everyone involved.</comment></comment>


BitTorrent Piracy Boosts Music Sales, Study Finds - <AUTHOR> http://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-piracy-boosts-music-sales-study-finds-120517/ <comment><USER2> This reads like a post that exists just so that people pirating music can give themselves an excuse to keep doing so.

I'd be interested in seeing the process that Hammond took to establish this relationship between pre release piracy and album sales. It says causal, but it seems like you can't truly control for all of the variables when you're dealing with phenomena in society.

One thing that sort of makes me itch is that the reported benefit of a one month in advance leak is a value rather than a ratio. It seems like a figure like that lets weight ruin the measure -- an album that was popular anyway will weight heavily when it comes down to the expected value.

<comment><USER3> I'm not sure about this study, but there are cases where 'illegal' downloads have actually helped the producer of the product have better sales. When Radiohead came out Kid A the reviews considered the album "Just Awful"[1]. And I think that they never had any music videos or singles for the album, but a leak before the official release of the album gave people a chance to give the album a real shot. They liked it and they bought it. Kid A was Radioheads first release that became number one in the US and it also went platinum in the UK.

[1] [http://www.guardian.co.uk/friday_review/story/0,,371289,00.h...](http://www.guardian.co.uk/friday_review/story/0,,371289,00.html)

<comment><USER4> The reason it went number one is because it was a new album from Radiohead. Also people wouldn't have given it a real shot after the official release date?

<comment><USER3> Actually Kid A was the first album that made almost a genre change, which is why people considered it 'awful' in the first place: they were expecting the same old Radiohead and they got something completely different. So yes, had they released an album similar to the previous three, I would agree with you, but what they did was quiet risky and the free downloads allowed people to give it a chance.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> I find it more likely that good songs are both pirated more and bought more, rather than that the piracy increases the sales. Correlation, not causation.

<comment><USER6> From the paper, which apparently nobody here actually bothered to skim:

> To study this phenomenon, I must overcome the fact that file sharing is > endogenous in its determination of an album's sales because an album that is > popular in file-sharing networks will also be popular in retail markets. This > occurs because file-sharing and retail demand are both driven by unobserved > album quality. To address this endogeneity, I exploit exogenous variation > inhow widely available an album was prior to its official release date. An > album's ease of availability in file-sharing networks is positively > correlated with the number of times that it is downloaded because > availability determines the supply of the album in file-sharing networks. > Availability is not independently correlated with an album's popularity in > retail markets because pre-release filesharing is driven by leaks, which are > "crimes of opportunity" that occur at some stage of the production or album > marketing process (Williams, 2009).

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> I'm not quite sure I understand the statistics here, seems to me that they are basically saying "stuff that is popular with pirates pre-release is also popular for purchase post-release" which is not exactly a revelation.

It also doesn't seem to account for total revenue rather than just total sales.

</comment><comment><USER8> It is on torrentfreak.

Expecting this site to be fair and balanced is like expecting the same from RIAA website.

<comment><USER9> Nothing is fair and balanced. Isnt that a Fox News expression by the way? They are mocking the viewers but they dont even understand it. :)

<comment><USER8> yeah, but a news on riaa website won't get to the frontpage of hackernews.

<comment><USER10> but it does get on the every mainstream media outlet. And on the lawmakers' desk.

<comment><USER11> We should be combating spin with facts, not more spin. Otherwise you are part of the problem.

<comment><USER12> I'm not saying I like this, but I find it to be true:

You are only right if being moral and ethical is more important than actually effecting change. Experience turns people into straussians ([http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/stephen- harper-...](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/stephen-harper-the- last-straussian/article1710880/) (it's about the Canadian PM but has a wonderfully concise description of the Straussian philosophy)).

Basically you can try and teach the general public how to think so that you can then convince them with facts or you can just be better at spin. One is practically impossible, the other is always some level of evil.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> The headline is a bit misleading for what is actually a somewhat interesting study on the effect of leaks on album sales (rather than post-release piracy on music sales in general). I've long believed that a leak of a great album can help generate buzz and ultimately sales for a new record since the people who would be most likely to evangelize the record would also be the same people who would be most excited to download it pre-release. It goes both ways though, a leak that exposes a record as being sub-par pre-release can have a devastating effect.

</comment><comment><USER14> I sometimes wonder if this whole thing isn't sort of a catch-22 for the record labels. It seems somewhat intuitive that greater piracy/sharing would lead to more exposure and more sales, but how many of those sales are driven by people who use file sharing as a means of music discovery, then purchase their favorites out of guilt? If the record labels acquiesce and begin to embrace file sharing as another method of exposure, that guilt-factor would evaporate because now torrenting isn't "wrong" anymore, thus eliminating those increased sales.

<comment><USER15> I don't buy things after torrenting because I feel guilty for torrenting. I buy things after torrenting because I like those things. If I dislike those things I delete them and don't buy them.

<comment><USER16> Additionally I make sure that the money I pay goes as directly as possible to the record label and/or artist.

Usually the music I find worth buying is from smaller labels or independent artists, and I really wonder how any money I could pay to, say, Spotify would hypothetically find its way to them.

<comment><USER15> Yes. Sometimes music isn't easily available, and in those cases I'd try to buy modern versions or merch.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> Hmm, but did they get bigger sales because they were leaked? Or did they get leaked because they were in more demand in the first place?

Also it doesn't really matter because the core of the argument will always be individual rights and control of intellectual property.

<comment><USER6> >Also it doesn't really matter because the core of the argument will always be individual rights and control of intellectual property.

Not really. That may be the core of the argument for the idealists, but the core of the argument for the pragmatic is "harm to the economy", and the core of the argument for the politicians is "appeasing those wealthy campaign donors". Individual rights have very little to do with modern American government.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> You also can't discount the fact that when Napster came out, music sales as a whole dropped like a rock. I don't think I knew anyone that bought music after this.

Anything digital (like movies, music, or software) is only as valuable as what people are willing to pay. Look at the iPhone apps market. Because most apps are under $10, you will have a hard time selling an app above this price point.

The same thing will happen if the record industry embraces piracy. People will just expect to get it for free from then on. It will be very difficult to convince them otherwise.

It's difficult for me to respect a community that feels entitled to someone else's hard work (and without their permission).

If they really want to make a difference, compete with the record labels. Create a record label with signed artists that gives their music out for free on the torrent networks.

I know this will never happen because it takes too much discipline and hard work. The community also doesn't really care about the artist. If they did, they would have come up with some sort of solution for artists to make a living in the past 12 years (Napster launched in '99).

Until They can show me otherwise, I feel that the entire point of the community is so they can get things for free.

<comment><USER19> _You also can't discount the fact that when Napster came out, music sales as a whole dropped like a rock._

By "dropping like a rock", you mean the 5% and 6.9% in 2000 and 2001, respectively?

 _If they really want to make a difference, compete with the record labels. Create a record label with signed artists that gives their music out for free on the torrent networks.

I know this will never happen because it takes too much discipline and hard work._

Yes, record labels that give music out for free "will never happen": <http://creativecommons.org/record-labels>

_The community also doesn't really care about the artist. If they did, they would have come up with some sort of solution for artists to make a living in the past 12 years (Napster launched in '99)._

It already exists. In the UK, for example, artists revenue has been rising steadily: [http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1PEuVy75dqs/Txt6vy4ZlmI/AAAAAAAAAD...](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1PEuVy75dqs/Txt6vy4ZlmI/AAAAAAAAAD4/EEejctW0bW4/s1600/screenshot-11.png)

Album sales are not the only way they make money.

<comment><USER18> "By "dropping like a rock", you mean the 5% and 6.9% in 2000 and 2001, respectively?"

hmm..what happened to all of the independent music stores? Between 2000 and now..they pretty much all went out of business...because...people aren't buying music anymore.

"Yes, record labels that give music out for free "will never happen""

Did you even read what I wrote?

"Album sales are not the only way they make money."

This is the entitlement I was talking about. This isn't for you to say. If you don't like their music, don't buy it (or download it). If the artist wants to give it out for free, they can.

The same people that hate the record industry because they think it's somehow propping up a dying business model..love the unions..when they are doing the exact same thing.

We could have automated many of the assembly line jobs in the US auto industry (like Japan), but the Unions are preventing it and forcing companies to pay ridiculous wages (which is why they pretty much went bankrupt). If you want me to feel sorry for the jobs lost, I don't.

Nobody feels sorry for the jobs lost when software, music, and or movies are pirated.

<comment><USER20> Independent music stores were killed by iTunes Music Store.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> I would like to thank pg for inviting the barrage of these stories and the type of users it brings to HN. Kill Hollywood? You might as well have Henry Ford saying 'Kill Horses'. When a viable alternative exists it will gradually replace the labels. Just like every other industry.</comment>


Crazy marketing idea: Record your work. - <AUTHOR> http://blog.getworkflo.com/2009/11/05/crazy-marketing-idea-record-your-work/ <comment><USER2> Recording your work for promotional goals works when your audience can do your job. Watching a chef will teach you how to cook. A programmer may enjoy watching you code.

When your target audience doesn't directly have the skills to understand the raw footage, that's when editing comes in. Think of all the documentaries on PBS. They address I know nothing about, but provide me with enough background information that I can follow what is going on. And in the process, I learned something. Which is great.

<comment><AUTHOR> Yes. The thing is, in a startup there are so many roles that can be recorded and flipped on the net. Marketing, deciscion making, design, good atmosphere at the office, programming, ...

It's just crazy how big a market we can attract by following these principles.

Regarding the editing, I agree. Yet uploading the videos edited is very time consuming even though it'll probably increase the spice of the video.

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> Crazy marketing idea #2: Put a link to your main website (i.e. getworkflo.com) somewhere on your blog.

Read this article, saw the name and thought, "Hm, what is this workflo product? I'll just click here on the top navigation...no...maybe the about page?...no...surely on the sidebar...no...footer???...nope." Finally, I just removed the "blog" subdomain from my browser's address bar in defeat.

Surely this is an obstacle you don't want other visitors to your blog to have to overcome.

<comment><AUTHOR> Oh man! Thank you sooo much!!!!

I apologize for the inconvenience I may have made with this!!

<comment><USER3> Happens to the best of us. Cheers.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> I think there are certainly advantages to exposing your working process to your customers (and other folks who you may have need to market to -- my business gets a lot of links because I have a blog that vanishingly few of my customers ever read, links lead to SEO, etc etc). However, I'm not seeing the gain between presenting focused highlights from your process and a live stream.

Its sort of like "reality" television. After capturing several weeks of film, it gets edited to within an inch of its life and strung into a narrative framework by trained writers, to provide a 30 minute episode. With commercial breaks.

An unedited stream of what I did to, e.g., fix a bug worthy of a blog post would be confusing (bordering on incomprehensible) to anyone without encyclopediatic knowledge of my code base and work practices. Which is, well, everybody but me.

</comment><comment><USER5> Would love for this to be true, but I really want to hear a success story from someone who actually build an audience on unscripted day-to-day work recording.

<comment><AUTHOR> Well, I'm pretty sure you'll hear a success story about this from us. We're implementing it.

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> This might be ok for some types of business, but for software development it would make very tedious viewing. There would be long boring periods where I'm not typing or appearing to be doing anything at all, then brief periods of furious typing.

</comment><comment><USER7> There are a few technical bloggers I follow that I might watch a few 'at work' screencasts.

However, I think I prefer the polished type of screencast where, for example, someone shows good use of Emacs + Slime working with a remote server (just an example :-)</comment>


The Business of Artificial Intelligence - <AUTHOR> https://hbr.org/cover-story/2017/07/the-business-of-artificial-intelligence <comment><USER2> Recent advances in AI still have some big limitations, especially that all the benchmarks at which it has excelled are 1) synthetic and 2) end points.

First, real world telemetry is very often less clean than the synthetic data presently used to train face or word recognizers. In the wild, bad lighting, poor focus, motion artifacts, occlusions, odd angles, floppy hats and unfamiliar expressions will reduce accuracy enormously when used in the real world. This often isn't a game stopper when the usage is lightweight (single picture matches, willingness to re-scan the object, patience from the user, etc). But in "live fire" situations like driving a car, the cost of misidentifying road signage, pedestrian behavior, or failing to perceive imminent risk can be very dire. In fact, good performance in synthetic situs like a lab are a LONG way from practical utility outside the lab.

Second, because these benchmarks are end points, where the only objective is to put a label on each input and add them up to gain a high total score, there is little impact after a label fails, when it misclassifies an object or misunderstands a word, and has to deal with the consequence.

Beyond mere benchmarks, when a situated AI is obliged to process a sequence of data and reactions to each appropriately (driving past street signs like "BRIDGE OUT" or "BEWARE OF DOWNED POWER LINES" or "DEAF CHILD") and the AI fails to understand some or all of an unfamiliar observation, unless it's also able to ask itself questions like "What ELSE might that sign mean?" or "Maybe I should slow down here because I may have misread, or because flooding is common hereabouts", the consequences of a 5% error rate on synthetic benchmarks looks a lot less favorable.

IMHO, AI is still a long way from doing more than advising humans. In a great many practical use cases, I suspect AI is a nowhere near robust and reliable enough to take the reigns from the status quo.

<comment><USER3> I agree, and there has already been one fatality from when a Tesla system failed to classify a lorry that was in the way. What we have is really a great advancement of mimicking the sensory organs (eyes, ears), but we still haven't figured out the thinking component.

'Seeing' is more than just classifying pixels, it's also about understanding the visual relationships between objects and being able to act on that data. How this fits into our current view of neural networks I've no idea, and worry that self driving engineers just fill this part in with lots of 'if .. else if ...' statements, which of course really isn't the same as actual thinking.

<comment><USER4> A fatality caused by a driver not remaining in control of the car. If the Tesla system was Level 3, it would be Tesla's fault. It was Level 2.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> I'm looking at this table of applications, but one application is mysteriously missing: Search. What kind of ML is Google using in its engine?

<comment><USER6> On one hand you have all the information it extracts from non text sources: books, images, audio, video, non English languages, etc. They use machine learning from them. On the other her hand they also use ML in the search engine to understand better your query (that is why it shows results that sometime doesn't have the keywords you typed), to rank the results based on what you would like more, etc

So the question is where Google doesn't use ML. If there is data there is a way to apply ML and create value.

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> Great article. I also believe that for the near term (next ten years [1]) the most significant use of AI will be systems that cooperate with human expert users.

I also agree that leaders who are creative in determining novel use of ML and who support rapid experimentation, might have more impact than technology leads.

[1] I believe that further out than ten years, general AI systems with broad knowledge and less need for labeled training data will become more valuable than AI/human teams.

<comment><USER8> > the most significant use of AI will be systems that cooperate with human > expert users.

except instead of calling it AI, we'll call it "photoshop filters" :P

<comment><USER7> You might enjoy this article about AI enhanced animation workflow [https://email@example.com/towards-new-ai-based- animati...](https://email@example.com/towards-new-ai-based-animation- ba61cf7e89ba)

<comment><USER8> Oh yeah, cool, I agree there are lots of applications of this technology for user-centered stuff. :) My point was more that as we get "used to" using it, we'll often cease to call it "AI". The moving goalposts problem..</comment></comment></comment></comment>


Never Say Anything a Kid Can Say  - <AUTHOR> http://schoolwires.henry.k12.ga.us/16492012482142820/lib/16492012482142820/Never%20Say%20Anything%20-%20Copy.doc

<comment><USER2> Spare us the direct links to .doc files? Ta!</comment>


The Simple MBA Manifesto: Do We Really Need MBAs? - <AUTHOR> http://www.slideshare.net/pramitsingh/the-success-manual-do-we-need-mbas <comment><USER2> This might be the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Getting an MBA does not mean someone will be boring, unmotivated and unethical. If a predominate number of business leaders and executives have MBAs then certainly a majority of the mistakes in business will be made by people with MBAs.

There are certainly many different reasons for getting an MBA. Some people go just because you can demand a much high salary when you graduate. However, many others go to develop their analytical skills, expand their knowledge base, and meet highly capable individuals who have similar interests. Furthermore, most people getting MBAs have been in the workforce for 5-7 years. They are not trying to start the next Apple. They have found a niche in business they like and wish to accelerate their development.

If you have already started a successful business, then why would you get an MBA? You wouldn't, but if you don't have a large network of capable friends, what better way to meet one than by going back to school?

I love participating in this HN community, but think the amount of MBA bashing that goes on here is just ignorant. People aren't successful because they have an MBA, but getting an MBA certainly doesn't make them _less_ likely to succeed. It's silly to generalize then marginalize a group of people because they do not take the same approach as the hackers here to making money and succeeding. Not everybody was meant to be a hacker, and while the members of this community should probably not be looking at getting MBAs, its stupid to have a disdain towards people who do.

<comment><USER3> The top MBA programs nurture extreme arrogance in a way that is really bad for the country. They create a set of "high priests" that often believe themselves superior to the rest of us. This is why, for example, entrepreneurs pay legal fees in VC deals; because the "business people" are just so great that you should pay them for existing.

We need people who are skilled in business, but what we don't need is an echo chamber that encourages many of them to become arrogant, unethical, short- sighted fucks.

<comment><USER2> I completely disagree. This is just another selection bias. The loudest, most obnoxious MBAs are the ones you are most likely to hear about.

Saying that MBA programs nurture extreme arrogance, bad ethics and short sightedness is like saying that CS programs nurture introversion, poor social skills and an inability to communicate effectively.

There are tens of thousands of highly successful MBAs running or working in small businesses you've never heard of, not generating any noise, and contributing a great deal to society. To lump them all together as a bunch of frat boy lunatics is ignorant.

Any hacker that has a terrible experience with an MBA is going to write a blog post about how awful it was and how MBAs need to be cut out of the process. The truth is, there are plenty that provide a lot of value and insight, but no one writes about them because no one wants to read it.

<comment><USER3> _Saying that MBA programs nurture extreme arrogance, bad ethics and short sightedness is like saying that CS programs nurture introversion, poor social skills and an inability to communicate effectively._

I actually would say this, not about CS programs per se, but about academia.

 _There are tens of thousands of highly successful MBAs running or working in small businesses you've never heard of, not generating any noise, and contributing a great deal to society. To lump them all together as a bunch of frat boy lunatics is ignorant._

The same goes about PhDs and ex-academics. A lot of them are socially normal, but people tend to notice the aggregate tendencies and turn them into stereotypes. As for MBAs, I don't think the stereotype is remotely true of each individual, but it is true of a certain culture that exists in MBA programs. To be fair, I doubt it has much to do with programs themselves; the students track it in from investment banks and corporate boardrooms. So, even though the programs are designed with great intentions, a certain set of people get in and feed off each other. This is much like how prisons are supposed to reform criminals, but some of them just use the exposure to others to learn how to become better at crime.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> We're very fortunate to have a young and motivated MBA in my company. We're full of engineers, scientists and tech nerds. Our CEO is an experienced engineer with a decades long background in software. But for many of the basic business processes, the grease in the cogs of the machine, our MBA keeps things moving along very nicely.

In just a matter of a few months he reduced costs by 40% without reducing the capability of the company in any way by cutting back on unnecessary expenses, putting in place standards for expenditures and R&D, finding inefficiencies in our contracts and partnerships and other such things.

Could we, a bunch of engineers done all that? In theory yes, but we hadn't managed to do that in a couple years since we were so focused on tech and not spending our time learning some of the more arcane businessy things -- like renegotiating technology contracts to be more favorable. We're not yet profitable and he probably single handedly managed to extend our life out another year on the same funding, giving us a much better chance of reaching the magical 5 year mark.

<comment><USER5> The results that your company got from hiring someone to take care of biz issues does not imply that said employee's MBA is relevant.

> In theory yes, but we hadn't managed to do that in a couple years since we > were so focused on tech and not spending our time learning some of the more > arcane businessy things

Those aren't arcane things. They're SOP,

Let's look at it another way. Would you excuse a software house that didn't use source control because they wanted to spend all their time on programming?

A tech biz is still a biz, at least if it wants to be successful.

<comment><USER4> Yes, all true. But just like I can drive a car, I couldn't compete in F1. Just because you understand that you have to do things like advertise, or negotiate a licensing contract for third party components doesn't mean you understand all of the ins and outs of how to do so.

<comment><USER5> > Yes, all true. But just like I can drive a car, I couldn't compete in F1.

You're missing the point. Let me quote something that you wrote previously.

>> In theory yes, but we hadn't managed to do that in a couple years since we were so focused on tech and not spending our time learning some of the more arcane businessy things

A successful F1 team isn't just a bunch of techs. Someone has to drive. Someone has to make sure that the suppliers are paid, and so on.

As I wrote previously, a tech biz is still a biz. You can't all do tech.

I'm glad that you found someone to take care of this stuff for you, but if you'd done so earlier, or done some biz things earlier, you'd have more runway.

By overconcentrating on tech, you put the tech at risk....

And no, it's not that complicated. 90% is just thinking that it's worth doing. It's not at all comparable to the difference between an ordinary driver and an F1 driver.

<comment><USER4> > By overconcentrating on tech, you put the tech at risk....

I would say this is certainly a fair characterization of where we were after year 1. We missed quite a number of very important foundational opportunities because we made the mistake of being hyper focused on the tech and not pragmatic business decisions.

By year 2 we had many of the same problems until we had a management shakeup halfway through the year and were finally able to approach the business side of things.

We're in year 3 right now, and in the process of turning the corner. But wow, we discuss almost daily where we could have been if we had adopted the right attitude from the start. Certainly profitable, likely 2-3x the size.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> It's not possible to teach someone the true entrepreneur spirit. Most MBAs go on to become cookie cutter consultants... This quote by YC's very own PG comes to mind:

"If you work your way down the Forbes 400 making an x next to the name of each person with an MBA, you'll learn something important about business school. After Warren Buffett, you don't hit another MBA till number 22, Phil Knight, the CEO of Nike. There are only 5 MBAs in the top 50. What you notice in the Forbes 400 are a lot of people with technical backgrounds. Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, Jeff Bezos, Gordon Moore. The rulers of the technology business tend to come from technology, not business. So if you want to invest two years in something that will help you succeed in business, the evidence suggests you'd do better to learn how to hack than get an MBA." - Paul Graham

<comment><USER7> The Forbes statistics are misleading, firstly they only represent a tiny percentage of businesses and secondly most people in that list made their money before MBAs were widespread. The Forbes 400 in 40 years time is likely to be considerably different.

Thirdly Gates, Jobs, Ellison, Dell also all dropped out of school, it doesn't mean dropping out of school makes you more likely to succeed at business. It's a classic case of selection bias. You need to look at the whole population otherwise there might be a million technology founder businesses that fail for everyone that might succeed.

What you need to do in order to have a fair test is take the graduating classes at an MBA course versus say a CS course, look at the number of graduates who start businesses and then analyse how many of them succeed from each each group.

<comment><USER6> I personally think there are more CS graduates that start businesses than MBAs. From what I have seen, most MBAs become consultants or executives of existing companies. I could be completely wrong here though as I am speaking based on people I have met and not actual statistics.

I think the point that's trying to be made here is that you _don't_ need an MBA to make it in business, which I think is a very valid point. You just need the entrepreneurial spirit and drive, along with the technical expertise (if you're in software), not the MBA.

<comment><USER7> About 10% of Oxford's Said Business School graduates start businesses, I'm guessing that's quite a bit higher than most CS degrees.

LBS run an entrepreneurship summer school which concentrates on the entrepreneurship parts of their MBA program. Over the last 9 years they've had 350 graduates, and produced 90 businesses. Of those 90, 80 are still operational, which is a fairly good success rate.

Although I completely agree with you that you don't need an MBA to be successful in business, much like you don't need a CS degree to be a good developer. But if you're weak in those areas that the degree covers then obviously there will be value in studying those areas.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> Pretty stupid.

Short version: MBAs aren't the end-all be-all solution for any kind of business. Specifically, they probably aren't a good solution for technology start-ups. So far so good.

But the presentation also suggests that MBAs are, as a field, responsible for the Enron-crash, the sub-prime crash, and boring companies and unmotivated employees. And that everything an MBA does (there must be some positive things, after all) can be learned from a handful of business bestselling paperbacks.

Being an extraordinary business leader can't be taught. Not in an MBA course, not by reading books.

<comment><USER9> Yeah, I would agree that this presentation is overly focused on the finance side of an MBA, since that's what all of the negative studies linked seem to focus on.

Other things I found disingenuous:

3\. MBAs Cheat. 56% of all MBA students cheat at Exams. Source: study by the Academy of Management Learning and Education of 5,300 students in the U.S. and Canada

Business students are only rivaled in their cheating by engineers. Should we make a presentation about not needing them either?

"The college level cheaters act more often in science and math classes. Interestingly, the college students most likely to cheat are engineering and business majors." [http://www.antonnews.com/columns/mcmillan/6872-cheating- in-h...](http://www.antonnews.com/columns/mcmillan/6872-cheating-in-high- schools-and-colleges.html)

"Their investigation revealed that 82 percent of engineering students reported engaging in some form of cheating. Only business students, at 91 percent, reported cheating more." <http://www.prism-magazine.org/mar09/feature_01.cfm>

5\. Can you name any successful, path-breaking, innovative company started by an MBA?

While I'm not going to spend too much time looking up a whole host of examples, but how about the company I worked with last summer? Flat World Knowledge is an open-source college text book company, co-founded by an MBA.

6\. MBA Salaries Are Insane

This slide doesn't even mention MBAs. It refers to CEO salaries from 1991 when an MBA wasn't even a common degree.

Sure, there are plenty of douchebag MBAs who would add nothing to a company and are just out for themselves. But you will find these kinds of people from any walk of life and prejudicing yourself towards any group of people is going to do you more harm than good.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> Here's my general thoughts on the subject and the slides:

\- Dropping out of school won't make you more successful. It just ensures you won't definitively fail. You can't work 16 hours a day, build a company, and be in school full time. You'll end up half-assing two things, instead of doing one really really well. If you do decide to stay in school, stay curious and build "projects" for fun.

\- MBAs can start innovative companies, but it's an auxiliary skill. It's a nice to have skill after having other things like: a sense of technical expertise, product expertise, having built a startup before, working at a startup before, etc.

\- MBAs can make good day to day operations managers when the company is growing. That's often the problem as to why a lot of startups lose their way when they grow. So make sure the MBA here is also an auxiliary skill and the skills listed above exist as well.

\- I enjoyed the slides until it turned into a commercial at the end.

\- Go learn how to build a great product, get some engineering skills, and fail a lot. That's been my real education over the past 4 years. It's paid off way more than my over priced useless degree in Computer Information Systems ie- Computer Science via the business school. Spend tons of time here on HN. It has been one the greatest sources of networking and knowledge for me over the past 2 years.

\- If you go to a top tier MBA program like HBS, MIT, Stanford, etc. you do have the opportunity to network / meet some smart connected people. Honest truth, that's kind of bullshit. As a college "stopout", MIT Enterprise Forum added me as their CTO in Florida. I now have access to their entire alumni network without the degree. If you're in the Valley go volunteer and help out with the Stanford/MIT VLab program. People make it seem like you can't network with people from MIT or Harvard outside of the MBA program. Guess what? That's horseshit. You can meet every single one of those people. They're actually dying to meet smart people like us.

</comment><comment><USER11> For the geeks and alike, it's a matter of choice.

And, for those who are not technical, yes they surely need it if they want to go up the ladder. This means aiming for a managerial level position -- better pay.

</comment><comment><USER12> If that link went here <http://www.ypermutator.com/index.html> I probably would've thought they were the same :p

</comment><comment><USER13> I think we need MBA if we are _not_ rich & connected.

<comment><USER3> People over-state here the ease of getting funding as a first-time entrepreneur. If you're an average 22-year-old, it's not happening.

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> This is based on a lot of "facts" that probably aren't true.</comment>


How to screw up your life by getting promoted - <AUTHOR> http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2012/12/how-to-screw-up-your-life-by-getting-promoted/ <comment><USER2> "Building something interesting requires a surplus of time and money. Salaried jobs provide neither."

The trap is not the salary job promotion, but the raise of middle class lifestyle. You wont leave middle class, as long as you raise your lifestyle with every income increase, and stay in dept.

The solution is to keep a frugal lifestyle. e.g. my lifestyle is around Euro1000/month, even including my sailing boat. A typical good payed coders job leaves Euro2000 surplus every month. So working for salary for one year means, that I have two year runway to work for myself.

<comment><USER3> Where in Europe is EU3000/mo. the norm? I've got 25 years of experience as a developer, and I'm finding it hard to get 2/3rds of that ..

<comment><USER4> Where do you live in Europe? In western Europe (France, UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, etc.), 30-35k+ is a common starting salary for an engineer with a MSc.

<comment><USER3> I'm in Austria, a C/C++ developer (Java, Android variant too, but I'd rather not work in it) with systems programming experience, and now 4 years of mobile work. The salaries around these parts are close to the GP scale, but not quite there ..

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> That's especially true for high-paying jobs in finance, law or management consulting. Here your wage raises so fast that most people don't see how their tastes are evolving. For example, after 2-3 years most cannot go to a nightclub without buying a bottle of champagne.

I quit Bain right before my first big pay raise and I feel that was a good decision. I eat pasta more than often but most of my friends who stayed have lost sight of their dreams. "I would like to quit but I can't" is something I hear SO often.

</comment><comment><USER6> I actually once read something like financial companies prefer to promote people with family, house etc instead of single guys because that's the way you lock them down. If they cannot afford to quit the job you basically own them and you can exploit however you want.

I think in a similar fashion to the writer but have a different approach. By learning to live with very little and be happy with the minimum, I'm not afraid of having to leave a place and give up a nice salary. Having the money is a nice plus and I can enjoy buying stuff and nice restaurants, but I don't make it part of who I am or the foundation of my happiness. Or at least I try ;)

<comment><USER7> I doubt this is true. In my experience, you get promoted when you get a counter-offer from another firm.

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> Another related problem is called "golden handcuffs". Many work in jobs that provide great salary and/or benefits and would like to leave, but they think that they will sacrifice their family's well-being by leaving. I was like that for years and recently switched to a new job that is a lot better for me. It is still far from perfect: I am more stressed-out, and I work more hours. But, the pay and benefits are better, and my skills and marketability are improving. I want a job that I love, and I'm still working on finding that, but if you have "golden handcuffs", don't fall into the trap that you can't do better. If you are aren't struggling and learning and you are unhappy and spreading unhappiness, you are a drag on yourself and everyone else. You can't always be unhappy, in fact you may continue to be unhappy (I am, or at least I tell myself that I am), but if you find yourself making others unhappy and feeling that they should realize that they are unhappy as you, that is not a good situation, and you need to change. There are plenty of other opportunities out there, but you won't find them unless you are looking for them. Just decide what you want, and do your best to make it happen. Don't buy into the self-help books either. They make promises they can't keep.

<comment><USER9> There's no point in being unhappy just for more money.

I recently left a great job, and left a bunch of golden handcuff money on the table, for a position with far less stress and the ability to pretty much chart my own course. Bonus: I'm learning a bunch of new stuff (getting paid to go to school is a really good deal).

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> There is nothing wrong with being promoted. You just need the self discipline to realise that like everything in life, it is only temporary and you need to be ready for the job and salary to disappear at any time and for any reason. Greatly increasing your living expenses makes no sense when getting a sizable pay rise.

</comment><comment><USER11> This advice is also similar to what I tell undergrads who are about to step out into the workforce for "just a couple of years before going back for grad school." A few people do it, but the vast majority will get used to the new salary, get married, and that pretty much ends it.

I tell them that the experience, particularly at a google/MSFT/apple, is worth getting because you'll have a much more well-rounded perspective than those who come straight from undergrad. But no matter how frugally you lived while working, it's the strong spouse that is OK with a 10x pay cut (> $220k -> $22k, at least for me in the sciences).

</comment><comment><USER12> There's a big difference between downsizing - leaving you with spare cash to do stuff with - and "Salaried jobs [...] stay the fuck away from them" which has seriously harmful potential.

</comment><comment><USER10> A botched "promotion" attempt can also backfire for employers.

I had one joker boss/startup owner try to promote me (his words were "what job title do you want?") but had no intention of giving me a raise! Suffice to say the working relationship did not last, I went on to more than double my salary within a year of leaving.

</comment><comment><USER13> I am reading a very interesting book at the moment with a similar sort of theme called "Your Money or Your Life": [http://www.amazon.com/Your-Money- Life-Transforming-Relations...](http://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Life- Transforming-Relationship/dp/1591797306)

</comment><comment><USER14> Same thing here. I can't start a lot of things i (now) have experience to do and which i am sure will still work, just because i can't imagine myself flying coach again - and that would be the way of life for the next coupe years if i do. Was my mistake.

<comment><USER15> was flying longhaul business for years, doing consulting. then joined a startup which rocks its space - but has a strict internal frugality policy - coach at all times, no matter how long the flight (we have offices in US, EU, CN and JP).

flying ZRH-SFO every couple of months in coach really, truly sucks once you know how it feels to fly the same route in business. being able to lie down and stretch your legs...

still the best decision of my professional life :)

<comment><USER16> Business class certainly costs a lot, but I imagine you can be work-productive much more quickly after stepping off the plane if you've flown comfortably. Have you ever considered a cost/benefit analysis of this decision? I'd be interested to know the results.

<comment><USER15> oh, i agree completely and basically know the results. business class allows you to work _in_ the plane, as you have power outlets and more importantly, space. once the guy in front of you leans their seat back in coach, you can't work on that presentation any more.

stepping off a 12h flight and working the next day is possible in coach though. your body doesn't like it, but it is manageable, however super inconvenient.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> One policy I've implemented in my group at an SF startup is when I want to promote someone into a new role, I first put them in the role before giving them the title and raise. That gives them a chance to evaluate how much they actually like the role, while giving both sides outs if the role doesn't end up being a good fit.

I've done this with two lead PMs and an engineering lead so far, and it's been met with a positive reception.

</comment><comment><USER18> I disagree with the premise. Sure, you can increase spending and get hooked to a salary, or you could just learn how to make more and have more.</comment>