text:
Memo to: Oaktree Clients
From: Howard Marks
Re: It's Greek to Me
In the early part of this decade, I reviewed a few books for the Sunday Los Angeles Times. Here's how I began my assessment of Pete Peterson's Running on Empty in 2004:
Consider Sam. He's always been regarded as the brightest guy in town, and maybe the handsomest. He has the best job and lives in the best house. He spends aggressively – detractors would say hedonistically – to support a lifestyle that many others envy, but he shows good character by providing generously for his sick and elderly relatives.
There are, however, a few problems. In recent years, he's been spending more than he makes, and his expenditures appear likely to grow faster than his income. He covers each year's shortfall by borrowing from other members of the community. (They've always been glad to lend him money because of his good standing in town.) But this adds increasingly to his debt, and thus to the next year's interest (and shortfall). In other words, he seems to follow Winston Churchill's dictum: "It saves a lot of trouble if, instead of having to earn money and save it, you can just go and borrow it."
Finally, with the number of family members Sam cares for increasing, with him promising each of them an increasing stipend, and with his relatives – even the sick ones – living longer, it seems clear that in the future, the cost of supporting them will grow considerably faster than his income.
An annual deficit. Attachment to a lavish lifestyle. Growing indebtedness and related increases in interest costs. Dependence on others to finance the shortfall and the risk that those lenders will withdraw their loans or charge higher interest rates. A commitment to pay for the welfare of others that threatens to grow out of control.
Pete's book focused on the tendency of the United States to ignore the cost of its social programs, run deficits and expand debt, and the "Sam" in my analogy was, of course, Uncle Sam. But now other nations have jumped the line and usurped the above description. Like most of Western civilization, it started with Greece.
Because I was in London much of the time since Greece burst into prominence, I may be able to add some insight from a European vantage point. This period in London was unusual for me, in that with this topic in the headlines I was far more a student than a teacher. Most Americans don't start off sensitized to international economics and, especially, currency matters. It's been challenging to organize all I've learned and boil it down for a memo, but here it is.
Strange Bedfellows
"Shared values" is one of the things I credit for Oaktree's success over the years. All of Oaktree's senior managers are conservative, cautious people; we all agree that risk control and consistency hold the keys to long-term investment success; and we all put clients' account performance ahead of our company's profit. Shared values make it easy to run an organization and particularly easy to reach agreement on policies and tactics.
Now imagine what it would be like to run an enterprise where (a) some of the constituents believed much more in thrift, discipline and transparency than others and (b) there was no mechanism for making sure everyone played according to the agreed-upon rules. Welcome to Europe.
In the 1950s Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany came together to form the European Coal and Steel Community, European Atomic Energy Community and European Economic Community, which in 1967 combined as the European Community. Denmark, Ireland and the U.K. joined in 1973, and Greece, Spain and Portugal joined in the 1980s. Membership has since expanded to 27 nations, and the name "European Union" (E.U.) was adopted in 1993. In 1999, eleven nations (since expanded to 16) agreed to form the euro zone and replace their individual currencies with the euro. Europe seemed to have accomplished the daunting task of pulling together its nations and adopting a single currency. This was a delicate balancing act, but for years it seemed to go quite well.
It was a requirement for success that all the nations share fiscal policy. However, as in most economic alliances, there were incentives to nibble at the rules. And, believing more is better, the E.U. admitted nations with less uniform values. The desire to create a common currency and expand the reach of the union – to achieve a scale more comparable to economic powers like the United States – colored decisions regarding expansion and ultimately led to trouble.
To get a feeling for what happened, let's say you and I are such good friends that we decide to combine our economic strength to apply together for a credit card with better terms and a higher limit. We agree we'll each (a) refrain from spending more than we earn and (b) receive and pay that part of the bill that relates to our own charges. All goes well, and eventually we agree to admit a third member to our association. But the new member doesn't share our commitment to thrift and integrity, wants to live a better life than he can afford, and thus charges more on the card than he earns. Our strong combined credit rating enables him to do so, and his balance on the credit card starts to swell. When it comes out that our association is heavily indebted, we chip in to pay off the unpaid balance, even though only one of us ran it up. In fact, since the prodigal third member spent more than he made, he has nothing to contribute to paying off the debt; thus you and I – despite having behaved more responsibly – are stuck with the burden.
Greece is that new member of the arrangement, and it (like a number of other countries) wanted to give its people a better life than they can afford, financed from the public treasury. Without membership in the E.U. – or if the rules on deficits had been enforced – Greece's economic reality would have limited what it could do for its citizens. But E.U. membership enabled it to borrow and spend to excess. Here's what the Bank of Spain's governor said in April 2007: "The single monetary policy has meant that excessively loose conditions for our economy have been almost continuous" (Telegraph.co.uk, May 30). The same was true of Greece.
My English friend Rodney Leach is a Member of Parliament and a committed leader of the "Eurosceptics" who have campaigned to improve the E.U. and prevent Britain from adopting the euro in place of sterling. His draft of a coming paper influenced my understanding of the situation: "Once inside the Club," he writes, " . . . the Mediterraneans resumed their old habits. The temptation was irresistible to borrow at the low interest rates bestowed on them by Germany's participation. Greece in particular indulged itself by completely abandoning financial discipline."
Greece was able to violate the agreed-upon 3% cap on E.U. members' deficits, abetted by generous capital markets and the failure to enforce the limit, and it engaged in financial transactions designed to hide its growing debt. It bears noting that much of what's true today about Greece has been true for years. But people didn't understand its significance to the extent they do today, or didn't find it worrisome, and short-term-oriented politicians had every incentive to ignore the problem rather than confront it and admit that their noble experiment was fraying.
Thus it emerged in early April that Greece and Greek companies had run up substantial debts that would be hard to repay. It didn't take long for people to figure out that the same was true about the rest of the "PIIGS": Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. In May, some unfortunate remarks by Hungary's Finance Minister made it a candidate for similar treatment. Then Estonia came under the spotlight, and the process seemed to cascade non-stop.
A Problem of Substance
The real problem in Greece and the other countries – especially what Rodney calls the "Mediterraneans" – isn't one of deficits and debt. Those are merely the results and the symptoms. And if the problem were Greece alone, the smallness of its economy and financial system would render it easily fixable. The problems are more substantial, structural and widespread. (I looked at 17 European nations; they all ran deficits in 2009, and only two of those deficits were below the E.U.'s target of 3% of GDP. In ascending order, the deficits in Belgium, Cyprus, Slovakia, France, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, Greece and Ireland were all between 6% and 14%.)
The ingredients that contributed to the European crisis are many:
· Slow-growing, unproductive and uncompetitive economies.
· Low birthrates and aging populations. ("In the 1950s there were seven workers for every retiree in advanced economies. By 2050, the ratio in the European Union will drop to 1.3 to 1." – New York Times, May 23)
· Generous benefits and social services; cradle-to-grave safety nets.
· Extensive vacations and strict limits on the work week.
· Early retirement.
· Artificially high debt ratings and resultant low interest rates.
In "What Worries Me" (August 28, 2008), I expressed concern about the fact that Americans expect the world's highest standard of living even though the U.S. is no longer a leader in manufacturing output and global competitiveness. Certainly this is the case in spades for Greece, whose economy is largely irrelevant but which wanted to meet its people's demands.
In April, as the problem began to unfold, I heard a Greek taxi driver express his worry on the radio: "I might not be able to retire at 53," the average retirement age. How can it be rational for a nation with a limited economy to enable its citizens to retire at age 53? Well, it isn't. Greece was able to outspend its revenues for years because it benefited from the "reflected halo" of the E.U.'s financial strength and low euro-related interest rates.
On June 4, 2005, the International Herald Tribune carried an op-ed piece by Thomas Friedman in which he presciently observed the following:
. . . [the forces of globalization are] eating away at Europe's welfare states. It is interesting because French voters are trying to preserve a 35-hour work week in a world where Indian engineers are ready to work a 35-hour day. Good luck. . . .
I feel sorry for Western European blue-collar workers. A world of benefits they have known for 50 years is coming apart, and their governments don't seem to have a strategy for coping.
A few weeks ago, Franz Muentefering, chairman of Germany's Social Democratic Party, compared private equity firms which buy up failing businesses, downsize them and then sell them to "a swarm of locusts."
The fact that a top German politician has resorted to attacking capitalism to win votes tells me just how explosive the next decade in Western Europe could be, as some of these aging, inflexible economies which have grown used to six-week vacations and unemployment insurance that is almost as good as having a job become intimately integrated with Eastern Europe, India and China in a flattening world. . . .
Next to India, Western Europe looks like an assisted-living facility with Turkish nurses.
In a nation with closed borders, a government can do almost about anything it wants. It can print money with which to buy things for people who don't earn those things themselves . . . as long as sellers will accept that newly printed money at face value. But in a global economy, competitive forces make it hard for people – or countries – to live better than their output justifies.
Less fundamental but more colorful, I've learned about a number of factors which exacerbate the situation in Greece and elsewhere. While just anecdotal, these tales are rampant in Europe:
· As may be typical of Mediterranean nations, compliance with Greek tax laws is, shall we say, "spotty." In this country of 11 million people, just a few thousand report incomes above €100,000.
· There's a box to check on the tax form if you have a swimming pool, and 324 residents of Athens said "yes." However, when tax investigators checked satellite photos, they got a slightly different figure: 16,974. That's 2% compliance. (The New York Times, May 10)
· As part of the unorthodox arrangement, these countries have significant "black" or "shadow" economies. In Greece, 20-30% of transactions are said to take place in cash and/or through overseas bank accounts, unreported in both cases.
· The prevailing rule in Greece seems to be "4-2-4." If you have a pending tax obligation of €10, you meet with the tax collector. You hand him four for himself, you pay the authorities two, and you keep four. It's not a fluke that the typical Athens tax collector, with a salary of €50,000, is said to own real estate worth €2 million.
· Going the proverbial baker's dozen one better, workers in Greece's public sector had quite a deal: they were paid two "bonus months" per year.
· In Spain, half of all employees are unionized and protected by very strict work rules that limit efficiency and essentially preclude layoffs. This means any steps to cut costs fall on the rest of the work force, which is hit disproportionately.
· It seems that Italy (an E.U. founder but also a "Mediterranean") maintains "a fleet of more than 626,000 official cars, more than 10 times the number in France, Germany or the UK." (Financial Times, May 12)
Together these things – low output, high government spending, under-the-table business dealings, tax evasion, and financial profligacy – represent a recipe for trouble. Today's developments merely prove that things that don't make sense can't go on forever:
· Perpetually spending more than you bring in.
· Enjoying a standard of living you can't afford.
· Running an annual deficit that increases constantly as a percentage of GDP.
· Owing amounts that increase constantly as a percentage of GDP.
· Doing all the above while having a currency as strong – and an interest rate as low – as in nations where these things are not the case.
Things can go on longer than they should, and these probably have, but eventually there's a price to be paid. The world is up in arms today over everything that's wrong with the European financial picture, even though these conditions probably aren't much changed from a few years ago. It's just that now people have decided to focus on them.
The Role of Debt
As I mentioned above, debt isn't the problem, or the cause of the problem. But it has been the facilitator.
In "The Long View" (January 9, 2009), I wrote (albeit without reference to Greece) about a strong uptrend over the last few decades in what I called "expansiveness":
Every business, government, non-profit organization or individual has a certain amount of equity capital, net worth or surplus. That capital, in turn, will support a certain level of activity: production and sales, lending, government action, charitable grants or consumption. But over the last several decades, if you wanted to do more of these things than your capital permitted, you could borrow capital from someone else.
Without credit – I think back to my pre-credit card college days of 45 years ago, for example – you couldn't spend money you didn't have. Thus you couldn't buy things you couldn't afford. Then the miracle of credit came along and it became easy to get in over your head.
What would have happened if governments couldn't finance deficits by issuing debt? Greece would only have been able to pay the benefits it could afford. Less pleasant, but perhaps healthier.
And what would have happened if builders weren't able to borrow, and thus had to sell each newly built home before they could erect the next? Spain wouldn't have been the site of a boom in which 2.8 million homes were built (with only 1.5 million sold), and with as many building permits issued as in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands put together.
The Wall Street Journal of November 24, 2008 carried the following quotation from Irving Fisher, writing 76 years ago ("The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions," Econometrica, March 1933):
When it comes to booms gone bust, "over-investment and over-speculation are often important; but they would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money."
While this statement wasn't made with regard to Greece or even to government activities in general, it is clearly relevant to the current situation.
In recent years, most of the nations of the world spent more than they took in to give their citizens more of what they wanted. As long as the capital markets were open, few could think of a reason why this policy wouldn't work forever. Economic units all over the globe were able to borrow to cover deficits. All that mattered was the ability to service the debt, even if that required borrowing money to pay interest. No one seemed to demand the ability to repay.
When I was younger – in what seems like a distant past – national debt began to expand, and I remember heated debate regarding the significance, wisdom and likely consequences of that trend. The subject receded in recent years, since every nation now does it to some extent and people became inured to the controversy, as they tend to do.
Two sentences stand out on this subject, from Bill Julian of Bill Julian Research on April 11. He quotes John Maynard Keynes as having said, "Government debt is really debt we owe to ourselves. So it doesn't matter." But today, most nations' debt is no longer all "to ourselves," as nations with surpluses are largely financing the ones with deficits. Thus it's hard to conclude national debt doesn't matter. Welcome to 2010.
In the "old days," government deficits were often part of counter-cyclical stimulus, a concept with which Lord Keynes is identified. It seems logical that when its economy is depressed, a nation will spend more than it receives in taxes in order to stimulate. Then, in times of prosperity, it will cut expenditures, run a surplus and pay down debt. But permanent deficits appeared in the late twentieth century, and thereafter national debt has grown in good times and bad. The idea of national debt being repaid has evaporated. Today, public and private institutions in Greece, Spain and Portugal owe €2 trillion to foreigners, with no possibility of repayment in sight.
Solutions and Stumbling Blocks
Thus far, most of the actions being taken to address the crisis are of two types: financial maneuvers to calm the financial markets in the short term, and austerity measures designed to reduce deficits in the long term.
The United States' credit crisis of late 2008 serves as a model for what must be done. The elements that arise in a credit crisis are consistent: uncertainty regarding the future, fear of credit losses, and refusal to make loans. Financial systems run on confidence, and, when confidence dries up, things can grind to a halt. Clearly, then, the most immediate efforts must be to restore confidence and keep credit flowing.
This problem is particularly severe at financial institutions (and what is a national economy today other than a financial system, hopefully with a manufacturing sector tacked on?). Financial institutions are, by definition, marked by high leverage, and if confidence declines, the providers of credit tend to ask for their money back. Since these institutions never have enough cash on hand to satisfy the demands of the would-be withdrawers, they can fall prey to a run on the bank. The first task, then, is to restore confidence and keep capital available.
Thus, at the beginning of May, the E.U. put together a rescue package for Greece worth €110 billion. And then, when the possibility of contagion to Spain, Italy and Portugal began to be recognized, that was increased on May 10 to €750 billion (or $900 billion, a figure remarkably similar to the U.S.'s program). In addition, the European Central Bank established a program to buy government bonds of the affected nations, along the lines of our "quantitative easing."
Many European governments have announced plans to reduce deficits. Their tactics include reduced spending, freezes or cuts in public sector employment and wages, and higher retirement ages. Some have enacted tax increases to augment revenues. Greece even says it's going to start collecting more of the taxes that are owed. Austerity is all the talk in Europe, and some leaders are predicting periods of substantial suffering. That's what happens when a borrow-and-spend cycle that has advanced beyond prudence is brought to a halt.
It's important to recognize, however, that one potential solution – traditionally perhaps the easiest – isn't available to the members of the European Union: currency devaluation.
A key element in the situation is the absence of independently floating exchange rates. Think for a moment about international finance. Countries differ in terms of growth rates, productivity and inflation rates. In recognition of the differences, interest rates and exchange rates change relative to those of other countries. In general, countries that are better off in terms of growth, productivity and inflation will have stronger currencies and pay lower interest rates.
The easiest way for a nation with excessive foreign debt to solve its problem is through devaluation. If the drachma weakens relative to the deutschemark, a Greek who owes a German a certain number of drachmas now owes him fewer deutschemarks (of course, if the debt is denominated in deutschemarks, he now owes him more drachmas). This process can occur through an explicit devaluation or through hyperinflation, and we'd be overwhelmingly likely to see it in action from a standalone Greece.
Between 1980 and 2000, the drachma depreciated by roughly 85% relative to the deutschemark, a reflection of economic reality. But with the countries of Europe tied together with a single currency, this can't happen.
Nations throughout Europe are doing what they can. That means reassuring financial markets and implementing austerity measures, but not devaluing (as long as the debtor nations in question remain part of the E.U.).
So, Will It Work?
"Will It Work?" was the title of a memo I wrote on March 5, 2009, discussing whether the Obama administration's rescue plan would be successful. The problems were new and huge, like today's in Europe, and the solutions being attempted were untested, also like today's.
The last section of "Will It Work?" was devoted to the three things I said had to be accomplished in order for the rescue to be effective: delever the economy, replace the capital that has been destroyed, and restore confidence. The recipe in Europe is no different, although the U.S. government had to shore up the financial institutions, whereas in Europe governments first have to support other governments.
In addition, there are wrinkles in Europe that the U.S. didn't face to the same degree. They can make it challenging to solve problems and especially to reach agreement quickly:
· The European Union consists of 27 sovereign nations, each with its own central bank and finance ministers. In addition there are the European Central Bank ("ECB"), the European parliament and the E.U. ministers.
· The countries have very different political views and are led by people from all over the political spectrum.
· The approach of nations to the problem will be colored by history that in some cases includes war and occupation. Countries will be asked to bail out others they fought against in the past.
· Finally, the countries' financial status varies widely. Only a few – primarily Germany – can contribute meaningfully to a bailout, and they will be asked to carry the vast majority of the burden. Will they be willing to do so?
As an indication of the intra-European differences, The Wall Street Journal said the following on June 15:
Germany views the crisis on the euro zone's Southern fringe as a symptom of other countries' failure to copy Germany's fiscal discipline and structural overhauls to its economy. Its proposed remedies focus mainly on pushing other countries to cut budget deficits.
France, however, believes Germany's large trade surplus and weak domestic demand are part of the euro zone's problem, since they force weaker economies to pay for their imports with debt, rather than through exports to the German market, Europe's biggest.
In addition to political complexity, efforts to solve the problem will run into two important issues:
· Austerity measures and tax increases are anti-stimulative, and they are being applied at a time when the economies in question are weak and need stimulus. Economic historians such as Ben Bernanke recognize that adding liquidity is the best way to deal with a slowdown, and that the withdrawal of liquidity exacerbated the Great Depression.
· In the long run, reducing deficits and debt will not be enough. The countries in question have to increase their productivity and competitiveness.
In "Will It Work?" I quoted from Paul Krugman (The New York Times of February 16, 2009):
As the great American economist Irving Fisher pointed out in the 1930s, the things people and companies do when they realize they have too much debt tend to be self-defeating when everyone tries to do them at the same time. Attempts to sell assets and pay off debt deepen the plunge in asset prices, further reducing net worth. Attempts to save more translate into a collapse of consumer demand, deepening the economic slump. (Emphasis added)
The yoking together of the European nations introduces some interesting ramifications. Some Northern European export economies – Germany in particular – are doing quite well. At this stage of the cycle, they might be considering rate increases and their currencies might be strengthening. But it's doubtful the ECB will raise rates anytime soon, and the euro has weakened versus other currencies. Thus, for example, the German economy and German exports will be stimulated when they arguably don't need it. Germany will export more than it otherwise might have, with some of its gains recirculated in the form of aid to other countries. Good so far, but possibly inflationary. Complicated and not easy.
The analysis of sovereign debt is in large part political, not economic. Thus the open questions are political, as described above, complicated by the multi-national aspect of the E.U. and the absence of provisions for disciplining financial non-compliers, ejecting members or winding down the Union.
But as we saw in the U.S. in 2008 and 2009, there should be little doubt that everything possible will be done to save the euro and the E.U. (albeit perhaps with one or two fewer members and/or a touch of "debt rescheduling"). They're likely to continue to exist, but many of the key questions in Europe surround the level of economic vibrancy we'll see.
My purpose in writing this memo was to summarize and explain the developments in Europe, and that's the vein in which I started. But then I started to think more broadly.
We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us
According to The New York Times, a leading central banker addressed his legislature on June 9 regarding his country's fiscal operation, which he said "appears to be on an unsustainable path."
"A variety of projections that extrapolate current policies and make plausible assumptions about the future evolution of the economy," he said "show a structural budget gap that is both large relative to the size of the economy and increasing over time. . . ."
"In addition, government expenditures on health care for both retirees and non-retirees have continued to rise rapidly as increases in the costs of care have exceeded increases in incomes. To avoid sharp, disruptive shifts in spending programs and tax policies in the future, and to retain the confidence of the public and the markets, we should be planning now how we will meet these looming budgetary challenges." (Emphasis added)
Greece? No. Spain? No. Portugal, Italy or Great Britain? None of the above. That was Ben Bernanke speaking before the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives. Thus my use above of the most famous line from Walt Kelly's comic strip "Pogo." Greece and the other members of "Club Med" may be on the hot seat today, but few developed nations are exempt, and certainly not the U.S. The differences between the countries in the headlines and many others are matters of degree, not kind.
David Leonhardt's column in The New York Times of May 12 provides a good way to start in on this subject:
It's easy to look at the protesters and the politicians in Greece – and at the other European countries with huge debts – and wonder why they don't get it. They have been enjoying more generous government benefits than they can afford. No mass rally and no bailout fund will change that. Only benefit cuts or tax increases can.
Yet in the back of your mind comes a nagging question: how different, really, is the United States?
The numbers on our federal debt are becoming frighteningly familiar. The debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. Add in the budget troubles of state governments, and the true shortfall grows even larger. Greece's debt, by comparison, equals about 115 percent of its G.D.P. today.
The United States will probably not face the same kind of crisis as Greece, for all sorts of reasons. But the basic problem is the same. Both countries have a bigger government than they're paying for. And politicians, spendthrift as some may be, are not the main source of the problem.
We, the people, are.
We have not figured out the kind of government we want. We're in favor of Medicare, Social Security, good schools, wide highways, a strong military – and low taxes. Dealing with this disconnect will be the central economic issue of the next decade, in Europe, Japan and [the U.S.]. . . .
As societies become richer, citizens tend to want better schools, better medical care and other government services. [The U.S.] is following that pattern, but without paying the necessary taxes. That combination has us on a course to Greece-like debt.
As a rough estimate, the government will have to find spending cuts and tax increases equal to 7 to 10 percent of GDP. The longer we wait, the bigger the cuts will need to be (because of the accumulating interest costs).
Seven percent of GDP is about $1 trillion today. In concrete terms . . . the combined budgets of the Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation and Veterans Affairs Departments are less than $600 billion. (Emphasis added)
Leonhardt provides some data for "cyclically adjusted primary balance as a percentage of GDP" that make for frightening comparisons:
Portugal- 2.8%
France - 3.7
Spain - 5.6
Greece - 6.0
Iceland - 6.5
Britain - 6.8
United States - 7.3
Ireland - 8.2
The Times defines "primary balance" as ". . . a measure of each country's medium-term deficit as a percentage of GDP excluding interest payments and assuming that unemployment in all countries drops significantly (to what economists consider 'full employment')." In other words, these projections incorporate a good bit of optimism. The U.S. deficit is swollen by stimulus measures that should shrink, but the data still make us look bad in some pretty bad company.
The U.S. is better off than Europe in a number of ways:
· Its national debt isn't high as a percentage of GDP (according to CIA data, our ratio in 2009 was only 53%, versus 113-115% for Greece and Italy, and 62-77% for the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Portugal and France).
· It benefits from having the world's primary reserve currency.
· Its Treasury securities are still a primary destination during any flight to quality (thereby reducing its interest costs).
· It possesses advantages in terms of top educational institutions, natural resources, creativity and intellectual progress.
On the other hand, its drawbacks include a tradition of deficit spending; heavy total indebted-ness (especially at the household level); many of the demographic issues that I described as affecting Europe (e.g., aging population, potential for structurally high unemployment); costly entitlement programs; declining competitiveness and a shrinking manufacturing base.
Including the private sector, total U.S. debt stood at 358% of GDP in late 2008. That compares to about 200% of GDP prior to the Great Depression and a peak of 300% in 1933 (sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve and Census Bureau). The U.S., too, will have to go through some major belt-tightening . . . painful if it starts soon, but much more so if it is delayed until the future promises are allowed to build up further.
I think David Brooks put it very well in The New York Times on May 13:
If you're elected president or prime minister in pretty much any country in the developed world today, you're faced with the same set of challenges: to reduce national deficits without choking off a fragile recovery; to trim the welfare state and raise taxes while still funding the things that lead to long-term growth; to try to enact brutally painful measures at a time when voters don't trust their leaders; to do it at a time when politics are polarized and a hundred different interest groups have the ability to block change.
The chances that the world's leaders are going to be able to do these things successfully are between slim and none. It's hard enough to figure out the right mix of spending cuts and tax increases. It's nearly impossible to build a political majority willing to enact them. Sometime over the next decade or so, the world will probably suffer from another series of crushing fiscal crises with significant economic pain and maximum political turmoil.
While Brooks led off with the paragraphs reproduced above, he found "Glimmers of Hope" (the title of his column) in the constructive budgetary approach being adopted by the new governing coalition in Great Britain.
This assessment from the Milken Institute should provide some motivation for problem solving:
By 2020, trillion-dollar deficits will become the norm even in years of solid economic growth and low unemployment, rather than an unpleasant aberration linked to a deep recession.
Absent wrenching changes in fiscal policy, things will only get worse after that. The retirement of the baby boom generation and the growth of health costs at a rate far faster than the growth of GDP mean that government spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (which pays for most nursing-home care for the elderly) is likely to explode. By the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's reckoning, spending on those three programs alone is expected to reach 18 percent of GDP in the year 2040. That is the average level of revenues, measured as a portion of GDP, that the federal government has collected over the past 50 years. So, in this scenario, there would be nothing left to pay for everything from defense to interest on the debt. Thus, unless those entitlement programs (and other spending) can be drastically curtailed or taxes raised significantly, large and growing deficits are a certainty.
But the auguries aren't good. Both political parties have become advocates of low taxes. President Obama's State of the Union address was a veritable panegyric to the virtues of tax cuts (although he is willing to raise taxes a bit for the rich in general, and rich bankers in particular). And now that Republicans have become defenders of spending every last dollar that Medicare recipients are currently promised, the prospect of reining in entitlement programs seems more remote than ever.
In a politics-as-usual scenario, with no changes in the current policy of low taxes and unrestrained entitlement growth, the federal debt is projected to reach 100 percent of GDP by 2023. By 2038, it would reach 200 percent of GDP.
I'll close on this subject with some even more pessimistic words from Bill Julian:
Add to the debt woes of European nations and US states the unfunded liabilities of the US government ($30 to $50 trillion, depending on who you ask) the bearded nationalization of the largest financial institutions in the world, Fannie and Freddy, and you have to ask, how could it have gotten this bad?
. . . conditions of instability could reappear [quickly]. And this time, the crisis will center on government debt and the bond markets. The collectivist impulse spawned by Keynes as a solution to fiscal problems brought on by the bad behavior of the banks and the governments who cover for them will have gone as far as they can. There will be no one left to bail out "the system." The US government will be left with a nasty choice: austerity and fiscal discipline, or monetizing the debt [through devaluation or hyperinflation] and face a likely collapse of the bond market.
The bottom line appears to be that the U.S. must anticipate austerity, higher taxes, and the sluggish growth that combination is likely to produce. Failing that, we may face devaluation, default and other unthinkable developments. We are not exempt from the problems besetting Greece, or the awakening regarding the notions listed on page 5.
The State of the States
Many professional investors include What I Learned This Week from 13D Research among their highest-priority reading. Its discussions are big-picture and almost academic, but Kiril Sokoloff seems more likely than most to cover the big market-movers of tomorrow. He discussed the financial condition of the states in his June 24 issue, and I can't resist quoting extensively (I could give you more, but there has to be a limit):
Across the U.S., state governments are on the edge of fiscal calamity . . . Last month, a report from the U.S. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities issued estimates that in fiscal 2010 the U.S. states collectively posted a near $200 billion budget shortfall, equivalent to 30% of all state budgets. As Time's David von Drehle recently observed: "Such persistent budget woes are unparalleled in the era of modern American government. You'd have to go back to the 1930s to find a parallel."
After plunging in 2009, tax revenues are starting to stabilize in some places, but revenues are still far off pre-recession levels. Collection of sales, personal-income and corporate taxes – which constitute 80% of state revenue – slumped 12% over the past two years. Meanwhile, fixed costs continue to keep states deep in the red.
As would be expected, state and local governments have begun to take some much-needed steps – cutting costs, trimming pension eligibility, and depleting their rainy-day funds. In fiscal 2010, forty-five states reduced services to residents and over 30 states have raised taxes, in some cases significantly, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Fourteen states are expected to have reserves of less than 1% of their annual spending by the end of fiscal 2010 – they are basically living hand-to-mouth. . . .
But the states, it must be remembered, have a large number of fixed costs, which continue to expand. In addition to soaring pension obligations, the federal government has pushed a lot of its burdens onto the states, beginning with the sprawling mess that is Medicaid. Created by Congress, administered by the states, and funded by a mishmash of state, local and federal funds, the healthcare system for America's poor is a train wreck waiting to happen.
Medicaid spending, which accounted for 21% of state general fund expenditures in 2009, rose 6.6% that year and is expected to rise 10.5% in fiscal 2010, according to Linda Bilmes, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. But while the number of enrollees increases, funding for the system will barely budge. As Arizona's Governor Jan Brewer said in her state-of-the-state address this year: "Government revenues have sagged to 2004 levels and some people say we should just adopt the 2004 budget" – easier said than done when your state's Medicaid rolls have grown by nearly half a million since then. . . .
The states, like the federal government, are facing a demographic headwind that will continue to shrink their tax revenues and compound their growing social safety net obligations. As Graham-Fisher's Josh Rosner reminds us, the baby boomer's peak earnings potential is behind them:
These boomers are now moving to become the largest tax on the social safety net. The largest generation in U.S. history will retire with less equity in what has historically been the largest retirement and intergenerational wealth transfer asset for most families – their homes. In many cases, these people will have no new [sic] personal savings when they reach the end of their working lives and will essentially become wards of the state. This increased burden on the U.S. Treasury, in a decade, is the largest unconsidered impact of the current crisis.
Last year, the states' fiscal woes were partly assuaged by the federal stimulus package. But nearly 70% of the $787 billion of stimulus funds approved early last year will have been spent by September, according to the CBO. (And while the emergency cash infusion helped the states keep their heads above water, it ultimately compounded their plight, since even though the federal funds are not necessarily recurring, the jobs and obligations they fund are.) This year, however, the federal stimulus money is going to be thinned dramatically.
The Obama administration has asked for about $50 billion for 2011, but experts believe it would require another $160 billion in cash just to meet demands for the next two years. And this assumes there is no increase in unemployment or decrease in tax revenues. Even though there is scant appetite among election-susceptible Democrats in Washington to add more zeroes to the end of the federal deficit, there may be no alternative. If the federal government does not intervene, the entire U.S. economy could be put at risk. After all, aren't California and Illinois, like the country's banks, "too big to fail"? (Emphasis in the original)
I touched on the subject of the states' fiscal condition in "Tell Me I'm Wrong" (January 22); that and the passages above from Sokoloff's piece should suffice for now. However, I do want to go into a bit more detail regarding one of the key contributors to Greece's troubles: pensions.
Pension promises have long been used in the U.S. as a budgetary quick fix. As in some parts of the private sector (see auto companies and "legacy" airlines), the public sector has a history of substituting sweetened pension benefits (and retiree medical benefits) for higher wages in the here-and-now, a prime example of "kicking the can down the road." Employees bargained for promises of enhanced retirement payments in exchange for agreeing to limit increases in current compensation, but the cost of keeping those promises will be high and, as of today, is far from fully funded.
The Pew Center on the States estimates that as of June 30, 2008, the states had set aside $1 trillion less than would be needed to pay future pensions and medical benefits. On July 6, The New York Times reported on a study by Joshua Rauh of the Kellogg School of Management: ". . . assuming states make contributions at recent rates and . . . earn 8 percent, 20 states will run out of cash by 2025; Illinois, the first, will run dry in 2018. . . . Illinois, once its funds were depleted, would be forced to devote a third of its budget to retirees; Ohio fully half."
States such as California and Illinois clearly have debts that will be hard to pay and budgets that will be hard to balance. Fractious politics, the requirement for super-majorities on tax and budget matters, and the role (in my state) of referenda all render solutions elusive. Will there be a bailout? This is a great question to start thinking about today (although the prevailing ethic is to not worry about anything until doing so is absolutely unavoidable).
I have no doubt that the federal government wants to avoid a bailout at all costs, and that the rhetoric will remain staunchly anti-rescue. But when push comes to shove, I sincerely doubt a state will be permitted to go bankrupt. As Warren Buffett said at this year's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, "I personally think it would be very hard, in the end, for the federal government to turn away a state that is having extreme financial difficulties." (Financial Times, May 4)
Just as the E.U. doesn't want to give deficit spending a green light, fiscally responsible states don't want to pay debts that others created through overspending. If the federal government were to bail out a defaulting state, what would keep any state from running deficits, knowing they could count on others to pay off their debts? When overspending isn't punished, what is there to discourage it? What better example is there of moral hazard? Wouldn't it actually be irrational for a state politician to vote to deny his constituents a benefit if he knew the tab eventually would be picked up by others?
And by the way, like Europe, the U.S. has its own differences. Certain regions will be asked to foot the bill for others in a federal bailout. And certainly some states have been more "expansive" than others and have run up bigger debts. All just like in Europe. In the same way that Germans may be hesitant to bail out free-spending Greece, Texans may think twice about bailing out California, and North Dakotans may have doubts about New York. "Red" states are unlikely to leap to help struggling "blue" states given the Republican view that Democrats over-expand the role of government.
* * *
Experience shows how radically markets fluctuate between seeing the proverbial glass half full and seeing it half empty. Rather than achieve a happy medium, sometimes the markets focus exclusively on good news (as during the twelve months through April) and sometimes exclusively on bad. Greece kicked off a turn to the negative in late April, which was exacerbated by the Gulf oil spill and rising concern over the possibility of an economic double dip. On May 8, after Greece's troubles blossomed, The New York Times quoted Bill Gross as saying, "Up until last week there was this confidence that nothing could upset the apple cart as long as the economy and jobs growth was positive. Now, fear is back in play."
Just a few months ago, no one seemed to have a problem with nations that ran chronic deficits and continuously increased their debt. Then investors changed their mind – as they tend to do – and today they take a dim view of these practices. Government solvency is considered a critical issue. Here's how guest contributor and hedge fund analyst Andrew Marks (also my son) sums up current sentiment:
Sovereign debt has become like fiat currency, as it is supported only by people's willingness to believe in other people's willingness to refinance it. The debt of an issuer with no plan to repay and no underlying way to meet maturities other than through refinancing sounds eerily like a subprime mortgage.
Markets are safer when fear balances greed, and when worry about losing money balances worry about missing opportunity. We don't like it when fear rears its head and stocks drop, but certainly that creates a healthier environment in which to be a holder, and one which should offer better buying opportunities. Over the first part of this year it was easy to say prices had gotten ahead of fundamentals; all things being equal, that now seems less true.
The current positives for investors include moderate valuations, rising corporate earnings and the likelihood we're already in a recovery. On the other hand, I continue to feel consumers are too traumatized to resume spending strongly, and I see unpleasant and rarely contemplated long-term possibilities including those discussed above. In particular, conservatism, austerity and increased savings are good for economic units individually but bad for a stagnant overall economy. Bottom line: anyone who invests today in a pro-risk fashion out of belief in the recovery must be confident he'll be agile enough to take profits before the long-term realities set in.
I've had a heck of a time pulling together all of these ideas, and I've found it even harder to come up with anything like answers. But I hope the discussion has been helpful, and that you'll think about the questions I've raised and encourage others to do so as well. I don't enjoy feeling like a worrywart, but I doubt my concerns are unfounded, and I can't imagine silence would be preferable.
July 19, 2010
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This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. Oaktree has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Further, Oaktree makes no representation, and it should not be assumed, that past investment performance is an indication of future results. Moreover, wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss.
This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose. The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. ("Oaktree") believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based.
This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.


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A consumer leases a new car. When is a good time for a dealership to contact the customer about replacing that vehicle with a new one?
As soon as six months later, says Jeff Cotton, executive vice president of AutoAlert. If that sounds early, some car sales people think so too, he acknowledges. "Salesmen will ask, 'Why call so soon?'"
AutoAlert software uses analytical data to show why. "We alert dealerships of clients that should be able to get out of their current car and in a new one at about the same monthly payment," Cotton says.
It is an appealing prospect for many customers and for dealerships interested in turning inventory, says Cotton, a former salesman at a Mercedes-Benz dealership.
Various factors come into play in determining how a customer can swap a current leased car for a new one for the same or similar terms.
One reason is that "nearly" new cars are in demand, increasing their value on the pre-owned vehicle market.
Other factors include new-vehicle rebates and incentives, varying interest rates, discounts, model-year changes, longer lease terms, a different deal structure, mileage penalties and end-of-term payoffs.
AutoAlert software crunches that real-time data for dealership clients and tells them which lease customers might benefit from exchanging their current vehicle for a new one earlier than they might think.
But it is vital for dealership management to convince sales staffers to call the customers and make the case, Cotton says. "At this point, 30% of it is software and 70% is sales training," Cotton says.
"Part of the script is to never say the name of the dealership, because people will feel it is a sales pitch," he says. "Just identify yourself with the vehicle brand, as in 'I'm calling from Mercedes-Benz.'
"Then you say, 'The reason I'm calling is I have someone interested in your vehicle. As compensation to you, if you bring it back, I can get you in a new vehicle for equivalent payments.'"
That gets a lot of people's attention. Often, the takers change models or trim levels. "Very few people drive out of the dealership in exactly the same car they drove in with," Cotton says.
AutoAlert originally offered its products only to Mercedes stores. It is now expanding to other brands, but Mercedes dealers and others with high lease rates are the strongest clients.
"We're in 70% of the top-producing Mercedes-Benz dealerships," Cotton says. Those include Fletcher-Jones Motorcars in Newport Beach, CA, the nation's top Mercedes store and "one of the most forward-thinking," says Cotton, who was a salesman there.
He cofounded AutoAlert with Boyd H. Warner, the firm's president and CEO who has a banking background. "A company like ours needs people from the car business, but it also needs people from somewhere else," Cotton says.


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Finding More Water in San Diego or How to Get Blood from a Turnip:
The Story of the San Diego Hydrogeology Project
Wes Danskin
Research Hydrologist
Many parts of the world have an increasing population, and a commensurate need for more water. But how to increase the supply when hydrogeologic information is limited? The USGS San Diego Hydrogeology project faced this quandary in 2001. What to do first, what to do next? How to make progress when funding and staffing are uncertain?
Now 10-plus years later, we have a three-dimensional geologic framework model of the coastal area, 13 multiple-depth monitoring wells, thousands of water-quality analyses, and a regional groundwater flow model. A broad perspective in space and time has allowed us to define where recharge occurs, where fresh water is located and why, how the groundwater system has evolved over the past thousands of years, what the approximate unused yield of the coastal aquifer is, and how our methods can be applied to other coastal areas with increasing demands for more water.


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Post Conference Survey: Complete the Post Conference Survey to get access to session documents and videos!
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This exclusive, invitation only event will commence with workshops on Tuesday, March 17. Keynote sessions, breakout tracks, workshops, and networking opportunities are intended to help you forge new ideas, services, and partnerships to advance your hosting business. The complete agenda and speaker list will be available nearer the time of the Summit on this registration site.
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Infor's CRM solution provides the tools your company needs to engage customers in a multi-channel, closed-loop dialogue that nurtures their loyalty to your products and services and improves your bottom-line results. Infor CRM is comprised of the following key components:
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Service—serves as the foundation for personalized contact center operations, giving customer service representatives a unified view of customers across all existing systems and empowering them to shorten call times and resolve issues on the first call. Powerful real-time analytics drive personalized, customer-focused processes and offers, turning customer interactions into revenue opportunities across emails, phone calls, and web inquiries.


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Dia sure knows how to relax her mind.
Sayali Bhagat is an Indian actress. She was born in Nasik, Maharashtra on January 01, 1984.
Bollywood's latest heartthob Ranveer Singh, who's just one film old as of now, is already the talk of the tinsel poses for a picture.
The Playboy model and actress Sherlyn Chopra's posted this adorable childhood photo on Twitter!
Juhi Chawla born 13 November, 1967 hails from Ludhiana, Punjab. (BCCL Photo)
Riteish Deshmukh and Jacqueline Fernandez at the promotional event of their new movie 'Jaane Kahan Se Aayi Hai'.
Sohail Khan, Salman Khan and Arbaaz Khan are together in this picture which was posted by Salman Khan in his twitter account.
Abhay Deol poses with his cousin Sunny Deol.
Yana Gupta on a holiday tour with friends.
Imtiaz Ali with Ali Zafar (R) at the latter's b'day bash at Novotel, Mumbai. (Pic: Viral Bhayani)
Lovely mommy: Chitrangada Singh enjoys some quality time with her son.
Jackky Bhagnani studied in St.Teresa's High School and used to accompany his father on the sets of many movies. Post schooling, He chose to acquire a Degree in Commerce from H.R. College of Commerce and Economics, Mumbai. (Pic: Viral Bhayani)
"Miss Hawa Hawai" of Bollywood Sridevi with her parents when she was a child. Sridevi got this pic from a fan on her bithday.
Kunal Kapoor's 'Rang De Basanti' gave him a much wider fan following than he had had before.
Rahul Bose is also notable for his social activism: Rahul participated in the relief efforts that followed the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami and is also the founder of the anti-discrimination NGO, The Foundation.
Tollywood heartthrob Allu Arjun married Sneha Reddy in a grand ceremony at Hitex, Hyderabad.
This pic, which we recently stumbled upon, shows Indian cricket captain MS Dhoni wearing an apron and a chef cap, testing his cooking skills. We don't know who is Dhoni cooking for. Any guesses?
Bobby Deol with wife Tanya during a promo of his film 'Naqaab' in Mumbai.
Ameesha Patel, Ashmit Patel with their parents during a family photoshoot at their bungalow in Mumbai.
Shiney Ahuja with his wife Anupam Ahuja.
Vivek Oberoi poses next to his numerous awards at his residence in Mumbai. (Pic: Viral Bhayani)
Bollywood actress Manisha Koirala's photoshoot at her house Yari road Andheri. (Photo/Kirti Surve)
Neetu Chandra was born in Patna, Bihar. She graduated from the Notre Dame Academy, Patna in 1997 and dreamt of entering the modelling world. Neetu's father, a businessman, was initially reluctant to let her pursue a career in showbiz but her mother, Neera, stood by her.
Bobby Deol keeps on giving Abhay Deol the compliments for his good work.
Anushka Sharma not only outshines in acting world she is also techno savvy.
Hansika acted in films like 'Aap Ka Surroor'.
The Gennext Tendulkars - Sachin and Anjali with son Arjun and daughter Sara.
It's tough to read what's on Fardeen's mind.
Nauheed Cyrusi with a friend at an event.
Arshad Warsi with wife Maria Goretti.
Bollywood actor and BJP candidate from Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency Vinod Khanna alongwith his son actor Akshaye Khanna at an election campaign in Pathankot in Punjab.
Farhan Akhtar during his childhood days with father Javed Akhtar and sister Zoya Akhtar.
Networkingitimes | Dating & Chat | Email


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A friend of mine recently emailed me:
"Is the word hell a mistranslated word from the words hades, gehenna, tartarus and sheol? Why, in your opinion, is there such a gross mistranslation to take even 3 God breathed words and make them one?"
Hades in Greek Mythology was an evolving concept. In Homer's Odyssey (8th century BC), Hades is presented as a place where all the dead went to exist in a ghostly form. It didn't matter if you were good or evil, everyone had the same fate, although there was a place called Tartarus which was a prison-house for the Titans where they were held without any sort of torture.
By the time Jesus was born, this concept of Hades had changed. The Greco-Romans then believed good people went to a paradise in Hades called the Isles of the Blest, while the bad went to Tartarus in Hades where they were tortured by the Furies.
Understanding the Greek concept of Hades is important to because I think it had a significant impact on how Hades, Tartarus and Sheol became known as "hell." It started off with the Jews being conquered by the Greeks and becoming steeped in Hellenistic culture and thought. In Jesus' day, the Pharisees believed in a similar form of Hades, except paradise was called Abraham's Bosom. It may seem strange that the Jews would have bought into this Greek home of the dead, except for one significant event.
In the 3rd century BC, the Greek ruler, Ptolemy Philadelphus, requisitioned a Greek translation of the Hebrew Scriptures. This was supposedly accomplished by 72 scholars, and so this version was known as the Septuagint. The important thing for us is that the Hebrew home of the dead, Sheol, had been translated as "Hades."
It is true that Sheol is depicted in the Old Testament as a home of the dead, however, it is, along with five other words (the grave, Abaddon, worms, the pit and darkness), used as a metaphor for death. All the dead end up together in Sheol (the pit, darkness, the grave, destroyed by Abaddon, eaten by worms). There is no bliss for the righteous or punishment for the wicked in Sheol; it a place where the dead rest in death.
The Septuagint was the version of the Old Testament we see quoted in the New Testament; it was used by the early church. Because Sheol had been translated as "Hades" in the Septuagint, I believe there was tremendous confusion. It is no wonder that Sheol, Hades and Tartarus became associated with Gehenna, the place of fiery judgment Jesus preached about. That's a short answer. Hope that helps.


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Insurance Quotes
Delaware insists on prompt insurance payment
Prompt-payment laws instituted in Delaware in the fall of 2001 mean consumers should see faster payments of insurance claims, even as insurers say it puts undue burdens on their checkbooks.
See the biggest insurance problems across the country
Insurance Commissioner Donna Lee Williams implemented rules that demand prompt payment of claims by insurance companies after she received numerous complaints from consumers about delayed payments and excuses from insurers.
The newest regulation requires insurance companies to pay settled claims within 30 days, whether settled by the court or by unchallenged arbitration awards. It also requires insurers to pay in a timely manner in cases where liability is "reasonably clear," or where the case has been settled before court action has taken place.
Insurance companies that violate the regulation more than three times within three years are subject to fines and possible license suspension or revocation.
Commissioner Williams says the regulations send a message to insurance companies that consumers will be protected in Delaware.
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Serena overcame her fear of needles to become life-saver
Posted: December 28, 2012|
IT was sharing the same blood group as only 3% of the population which prompted Serena Fisher to start giving blood.
The 21-year-old said she had already been contemplating donating, knowing she could be saving lives.
But she admitted it was the "needle" part of the process which stopped her from becoming a first-time donor earlier than in October.
"I didn't know anything about giving blood before I went for the first time," said Serena, of Allestree.
"All I knew was that there was something to do with a needle and that they took a pint of blood.
"And, for a while, the needle did stop me from going. That's because I didn't realise how easy it was going to be."
Because Serena – whose blood group is AB positive – gave blood for the first time two months ago, she will not be able to donate again until February.
But she said she has no qualms about going back again and hopes to one day reach triple figures with the number of blood donations.
That is why Serena is backing the Derby Telegraph's Save a Life campaign.
We want to find 500 new blood donors in Derbyshire in the run-up to, and during, the Christmas period.
Serena, of Park Farm Drive, Allestree, said: "It's easy to say now but people shouldn't be worried about going to give blood.
"The atmosphere is always really friendly at the sessions and I think people should at least try it once.
"Even if they go along with a friend, it's just worth people going down and seeing what the sessions are like for themselves, so they know what they're doing.
"But I really think we need to make an effort to give blood – it will make a difference."
Serena went along to Derby County's Pride Park Stadium for her debut session, where donors were invited to give blood on specialised chairs rather than lying on a bed.
She said: "I found the whole thing a nice experience – there was nothing daunting about it at all.
"Interestingly, they were testing out the chairs and everyone was talking about how different it is to the beds but, because I'd never been before, I didn't know anything different.
"But I was really proud that I'd overcome my nerves about the needles."
Serena said there were two reasons why giving blood was important to her.
She said: "When I found out I was AB positive, I felt that was even more of an incentive to give blood because of the rarity of that group.
"On top of this, I lost my nan to cancer two years ago and I often think about how she might have needed blood. I wouldn't like to have thought that, if she had, I hadn't given any. It's the help it gives people which is important to me."YOUR CHANCE TO GIVE BLOOD
THE Derby Telegraph is hoping to reach thousands of readers with its Save a Life Campaign – to turn you into life-savers.
We teamed up with NHS Blood and Transplant to try to find 500 new blood donors in Derbyshire.
To inspire you to give blood, we are featuring the stories of people whose lives were saved by transfusions or those who are already blood donors.
And there are plenty of NHS Blood and Transplant sessions for readers to donate. They are at:
Pride Park Stadium, Derby, Sunday, from 10.15am to 12.45pm and from 2pm to 3.30pm.
Ravensdale Junior School, Mickleover, Sunday, January 6, from 10am to 12.45pm and from 2pm to 4pm.
The Spot, Derby, Sunday, January 13, from 10am to 12.30pm and from 1.45pm to 3.30pm.
Most people can give blood. First-time donors should be in good health, between 17 to 65 years old and weigh at least 50kg, or 7st 12lb.
About 470ml of blood is given and this amount is quickly replaced by the body.
To book an appointment, call 0300 123 2323 or visit www.blood.co.uk.


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GT Sports set up Kingsmead clash in Stan Milsom Cup semi-finals
Posted: December 13, 2012|
BATH SUNDAY Holders GT Sports booked a Stan Milsom Cup semi-final showdown with Kingsmead this weekend following a 2-1 victory over Booyas in the last eight.
The Roper Rhodes Bathrooms Bath & District Sunday League Division 1 champions edged the game after going a goal behind. Shaun Wiles-Richards scored both of their goals with a great right-footed strike and a well-placed header.
PF Locomotive extended their lead at the top of Division 2 with a hard earned 3-1 win over The Works Vultures.
Jeb Hagel-Eichorn scored a fine solo effort in the first half and, after Vultures equalised through Jack Harvey's strong header, went on to earn a penalty for the club's leading scorer Oli Brunskill to put away. Hagel-Eichorn then set up his cousin, Tristan Eichorn, for a simple finish to round off the win.
Sam Wheller struck twice for KCC as they defeated The World XI 3-2. Marcus Smith was also on target.
Daniel Norris scored Bear Flat's goal in a 4-1 defeat at the hands of BBA.
Heritage United went top of Division 3 with a 4-2 victory at New Inn A.
United took the lead twice in the first half through Dave Thomas and James Wike but New Inn cancelled out both strikes. The points were sealed by goals from Ross Lawson and Mark Taylor after the break.
Trowbridge House and Metro drew 4-4 in Division 4. James Shaw, Manuel Betoret-Villa, Christopher Hallett and Steven Treadway shared Metro's goals.
Strikes from Cecil Zuckerman and Marvin Parkes earned Alice Park Rangers a 2-1 victory over The Griffin in Division 5.


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November 16, 2012 – August 18, 2013
Museum: Portrait Gallery
Location: 1st Floor, Northeast
Artists Mequitta Ahuja, Mary Borgman, Adam Chapman, Ben Durham, Till Freiwald, and Rob Matthews expand the narrow boundaries that once defined drawing and portraiture. Probing the intersection between drawing and photography, painting, video, textual writing, and computer technology, all six artists show a commitment to direct, immediate, highly personal mark-making. Each of them employs a painstaking technique; their meticulous, repetitive actions result in a contemplative, almost meditative, engagement with process that adds a psychological depth to their work.


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Red Bull KTM's Cyril Despres was gifted the win in yesterday's stage of the Dakar Rally when his teammate Ruben Faria was docked a minute for a speed-limit infraction, but that wasn't the case today as the defending race champion won today's stage from Cordoba to San-Miguel without any assistance from race officials.
Despres rode his KTM to the 25th stage victory of his career on the 186-mile special stage, topping his rival Marc Coma by a minute and 49 seconds, the two-time Dakar Rally winner moving to second in the overall standings where he trails Despres by two minutes and 35 seconds.
"Today the track was full of bends and very skiddy, like a 300-km giant slalom with jumps, like skiing," Despres said on the Dakar website. "I noticed at the refuelling point that I'd taken almost a minute less than [Marc] Coma. I was feeling good, so I decided to attack a bit in the second part, though I was careful to look after my tires because I nearly wore them through today. The most important thing is to find a god pace and have the right feeling. For the moment, the riding demands a lot of concentration".
Yesterday's on-course winner Faria slipped to fifth in today's stage, losing over five minutes to his teammate Despres. The Portuguese rider is now third overall, 6:13 behind the leader after two stages.
Aprilia-mounted Francisco Lopez Contardo is fourth overall and the first non-KTM rider after finishing fourth in today's stage with BMW's Paolo Goncalves fifth overall. David Casteu had a strong ride today on his factory Sherco, the Frenchman making up for yesterday's disappointment when he struck a spectator with a spirited ride to third - a ride that leapfrogged him from 12th to sixth in the overall standings.
"I asked for news about the spectator that I hit yesterday and he only has two broken ribs, so I'm very relieved, because it wasn't a very easy evening to go through yesterday," Casteu said. "Today, I was still thinking about it, but there were much less people on the tracks and I was able to attack a lot. I ended up in the dust of Rodrigues, Viladoms and Verhoeven. I even managed to overtake them, but it wasn't easy. At one point, I was travelling at 163 kmph [101 mph], which is not bad at all for a 450cc. The bike is working very well and I'm really enjoying riding it".
American Jonah Street is currently seventh overall after finishing seventh in today's stage. He is just over 10 minutes behind Despres.
Street's fellow American Quinn Cody is 13th overall after two stages in his Dakar Rally debut.
One of the riders who normally runs close to the front of the rally, Pal-Anders Ullevalseter, is suffering in this year's race. The Norwegian is all the way back in 29th overall after two stages and joked today that, "I miss my 690cc."
Paul Carruthers | Editor
Paul Carruthers took over as the editor of Cycle News in 1993 after serving as associate editor since starting his career at the publication in 1985. Carruthers has covered every facet of the sport in his near-28-year tenure at America's Daily Motorcycle News Source.


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November 15, 2012
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Detroit Pistons v Atlanta Hawks
Kyle Korver of the Atlanta Hawks celebrates during the game against... NyhetsfotoAmerikanska proffsligan i basket,Atlanta,Atlanta Hawks - Basketlag,Basketboll,Detroit Pistons,Firande,Georgia,Horisontell,Kyle Korver,Match - Sport,Philips Arena,Sport,USAPhotographer Scott CunninghamCollection: National Basketball Association 2012 NBAEATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 26: Kyle Korver #26 of the Atlanta Hawks celebrates during the game against the Detroit Pistons on December 26, 2012 at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2012 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)


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RSSIn The Press: 2004
Metallica shorn, but snarling
August 18, 2004
The group delivered a set thick with riffs, fist pumping and explosions lots and lots of explosions.
Metallica tames its demons
August 18, 2004
Quiet time and Metallica would not have appeared in the same sentence until three years ago, when the wheels flew off the wagon, and the cameras began to roll.
Metallica delivers pure therapy at Xcel
August 17, 2004
Playing to a sellout and absolutely rabid crowd of 18,963,
Filmfodder Grade: A
August 17, 2004
What was intended as mere months in the studio became more than two years of footage.
Metallica prepares to unleash another monster
August 13, 2004
When Metallica performs at Conseco Fieldhouse next Thursday, it will be the band's first indoor show in Indianapolis since Market Square Arena was demolished in 2001.
Movie review: Metallica - Some Kind of Monster
August 13, 2004
Forget about Fahrenheit 9/11 and Super Size Me. This year's best documentary comes courtesy of three grizzly rockers fighting it out in therapy.
Full Interview with James
August 13, 2004
Metallica frontman James Hetfield had a lot to say about the outfit's latest endeavor
Metallica Announce Three Canadian Dates
August 3, 2004
If you see a lot of Metallica T-shirts popping up in Ontario and Quebec this October, don't be alarmed
Full metal packet
August 3, 2004
But a new film about the therapist who saved heavy rockers Metallica's career turns the volume up to 11
Analyze This
August 3, 2004
If This Is Spinal Tap had been a drama, it would have been Metallica: Some Kind of Monster.


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AOL News has a new home! The Huffington Post.Click here to visit the new home of Politics Daily!
This man is the salt and light of the earth. I wish our politicians would take a good look at what true sacrifice, patriotism and humility looks like. God Bless him and all our faithful servicemen. We need more people like them!November 27 2010 at 12:01 AM Report abuse Permalink +1 rate up rate down Reply
What words can we possibly use to convey our profound thoughts of pride and wonder when hearing of the brave deeds and self sacrifice these young men and women like this young Paratrooper, who give their all to our country for our freedom, for me, it's beyond words, but a loud; THANK YOU is a beginning. An Old Soldier with a kind thought, and a silent prayer for all the Men and Women serving in the uniform of our country. WFRNovember 20 2010 at 12:17 PM Report abuse Permalink +2 rate up rate down Reply
Congrats to SSG Giunta for his heroic bravery in being awarded the Medal of Honor. This is the most prestigious honor to be bestowed on a military personnel. Your love of Country, Honor, and brotherhood of your fellow soldiers makes you one of the finest examples of being an American. I wish all young men of 18 was required to serve in our Armed Forces. There would be an awe over this land, with the respect and honor that would be learned by each. The streets would be safe, because of the reverence our young men would have for America.....Once again, young soldier, Congrats.... Vietnam era Vet, US ARMYNovember 16 2010 at 3:22 PM Report abuse Permalink +1 rate up rate down Reply
I thank all members of our nation's armed forces,with special thanks to that elite group Giunta has just become a member of. USCG RetiredNovember 16 2010 at 11:48 AM Report abuse Permalink +4 rate up rate down Reply
As a veteran, with twenty seven years service, and three tours in combat in Vietnam, I bristle when I read a soldier "wins" the Medal of Honor. No soldier goes into combat with the intention of winning a medal for valor. This soldier, and all other Medal of Honor awardees has been "awarded" the Medal of Honor for service above and beyond the call of duty.November 16 2010 at 10:36 AM Report abuse Permalink +3 rate up rate down Reply
DITTO........for your information, I sent the following to the Denver Post: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 Denver Post: For your information, the President of the United States of America does not have the power to award the Medal of Horner to any recipient. The President simply presents the award to the person who has been awarded the award. WFRNovember 20 2010 at 12:01 PM Report abuse Permalink +1 rate up rate down Reply
It is truly amazing that such young men possess such incredible bravery. As a serviceman, my only wish would be that Sgt Brennan survived.November 16 2010 at 10:14 AM Report abuse Permalink +2 rate up rate down Reply
I totally agree with crabbychief. Sergeant, you put on a great display of personal bravery and courage under fire. You deserve the gratitude of your Country and the recognition which accompanies it. Very well done, Soldier. Congratulations.November 16 2010 at 8:26 AM Report abuse Permalink +8 rate up rate down Reply
Sounds like our strategy in Viet Nam - fight and lose lives to capture an area just to abandon it just because the higher-ups decide it wasn't worth it to stay. Within a day or two, all the "insurgents" would be back. Yeah, worked in Viet Nam, so why wouldn't it work in Afghanistan?November 16 2010 at 8:20 AM Report abuse Permalink -6 rate up rate down Reply
I am not surprised by this young SSG's actions. We teach our young soldiers to depend on one another and work as a team. We're one big family. 1SG, US Army RetiredNovember 16 2010 at 5:01 AM Report abuse Permalink +8 rate up rate down Reply
I don't think he won a metal,, you dont win a medal on the battle feild,, it is not a contest, who ever wrote the lead in to this article wrote it as if it were a game our men and women are doing. He volunteered to serve our country, was recognized as a hero and was awarded a metal. There is a difference. A BIG Thank you to all our service personel, both men and women for performing the some times impossible task of serving our coutry G DAYNovember 16 2010 at 3:04 AM Report abuse Permalink +9 rate up rate down Reply
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Scattered clouds, 23 °C / 73.4 °F
Looking for a place to throw a ball for your dog and let them interact with other dogs? Conceived by a group of community volunteers in 2011, the Independence Dog Park is fast becoming "the" place to go for dog people in Independence. Totaling just over two acres, The park has separated areas for small dogs and big dogs, a pet waste station, shady trees, and a water station for dogs and their owners. The Willamette River is also right next door if your dog likes to go for a swim.
The Independence Dog Park is located on Grand Street just east of Highway 51, about 1/4 mile north of downtown. You can also reach the park via the Willamette River Trail which starts in Riverview Park downtown and runs north all the way to the North Riverfront Ballfield Complex and boat ramp.
Volunteers were critical to the development of this new community resource, and work is ongoing. The dog park group is actively raising funds to completely fence the perimeter of the park and install benches and tables. For more information on how this park was created and how you can get involved, go to the dog park construction page, or check out the group's facebook page
Click any thumbnail image to view a slideshow


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Zulgad: Ron Gardenhire's extension should be final patience exhibition
Get the 1500 ESPN SportsWire delivered to your inbox daily, and keep up with all the news in Twin Cities Sports
The Minnesota Twins have been here before and dug themselves out.
That was the point that general manager Terry Ryan attempted to make Monday during the press conference announcing that manager Ron Gardenhire would receive a two-year contract extension despite a third consecutive 90-plus loss season.
Ryan's history lesson is correct.
From 1993 through 2000, the Twins never finished above .500 and meanwhile they suffered through five seasons of 90-plus losses, including four in a row from 1997 through 2000.
Those years of futility occurred with the low-revenue Twins playing in the Metrodome and unable to compete financially with the teams that were getting new stadiums and adding revenue streams.
This served as an often convenient, but also accurate excuse for the Twins' struggles.
But the Twins' move across downtown Minneapolis in 2010 from the Metrodome to Target Field eliminated the team's ability to play the "woe is us" card. The Twins no longer had to take a seat at the kids' table when Thanksgiving dinner was served to big-league clubs.
Yet, since securing the American League Central in 2010, the Twins have lost 99, 96 and 96 games the past three years and have an overall 195-291 mark during that time.
Considering the reputation the Twins worked so hard to build in winning six division titles from 2002 through 2010, being 96 games under .500 the past three years is not only unacceptable it's embarrassing.
And it has to stop.
Ryan, who has acknowledged he didn't give Gardenhire enough to work with this season, is confident he can halt this slide but the question remains when will that happen? The answer needs to come from ownership and it's very simple.
Gardenhire got a two-year extension. That should be the internal and unspoken timetable for this franchise to get its act together or else everyone with any power is shown the door at Target Field.
One can admire the patience of the Pohlad family, but at what point does that patience become a form of neglect and an insult to a fan base that would fill one of the best stadium's in baseball if given a reason?
We are getting closer to the answer with each lost season.
There is no denying Ryan is an outstanding baseball man, but ownership also needs to give him a blueprint for this offseason and not simply accept what they are told.
Here's the best approach: Ryan should be informed he needs to come up with two plans.
One that will at least attempt to make this team competitive in 2014 and another that will continue with the long-term plan for 2015 and beyond when the majority of the top prospects, such as third baseman Miguel Sano and center fielder Byron Buxton, will arrive.
The short-term goal will fulfill what the Twins already say they will do this offseason and make them a player in free agency. If Ryan really thinks the three-year, $21 million investment made in Josh Willingham meant the outfielder received a substantial contract, then he's going to have to change his mind set and understand there is a significant price to being competitive.
This doesn't mean the Twins are supposed to be stupid with their money, but it does mean the days of attempting to pick over free agency like it's the last day of a garage sale are finished. And before anyone gets upset, no one is saying this team should build through free agency. What they are saying is, like with everything in life, there is a happy medium.
Plus, if the Twins front office and scouting department are as good as we're told, then Ryan has to have confidence that mistakes won't be made.
Ryan also needs to allow for the fact that as tough as it might be, a prospect could have to be moved for starting pitching. We're not talking Buxton or Sano but there are other players (second baseman Eddie Rosario, for instance) who could be included in a package.
This might not be the way that Ryan wants to do things, but going to spring training with a collection of players destined for another 90-plus losses shouldn't be the way the Pohlads or anyone else want to do things, either.
Eventually the pattern has to stop and if ownership is wise there will be an expiration date put on this stink or the time for loyalty will be passed.


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Hey there guys! It's been some time, hasn't it?
Yeah… I guess a lot has happened since my last post in July. And well… it's clearly pulled me away from blogging in a major way.
I launched a series online this year that's been going pretty well. Some of you may have heard of it. It's called H+ (H+: The Digital Series if you dig on formalities). And it's been a wild ride, to say the least. I've even picked up a few other projects along the way. I'll talk about those in the coming week and months, I'm sure.
But yeah… busy year. Not a lot of time to just write for the hell of it.
And yet, I've really missed the blogging… writing for no other reason than to hear the clicking of my keyboard. It's something I've been eager to start back up again for a while now.
So I've decided to hell with it, I'm coming back. And it feels right. I actually began blogging for the first time in 2008 as we started working on the script for H+ at Warner brothers. Now that we've begun work on H+ Season 2, what better time than now to return?
Some of you may also remember that this blog was really jump-started by a passion I had for writing about the TV shows I was watching at the time… and the occasional cartography that went with it. In fact, I'm sure many of you who have seen H+ can detect several of its influences.
I also talked a lot about social media back in those early blogging days, and that's changed a lot since 2008, huh?
I told funny stories. Rants. Sometimes just straight-up blogging the depressing funks I was in (cause I like to keep it real). I shared stuff about the projects I was working on. Stuff you could see me in (I used to be an actor).
So yeah. You can probably expect more of the same. I'm just gonna stick with what I know. I even went back and reread my first post ever in order to get some inspiration for this one. So I'm really serious here.
Let's see… I'm watching Breaking Bad right now and trying to catch up before Season 5-Part 2 starts (I'm on Season 3). I'll likely blog the hell out of that show when it starts back up again. Game of Thrones for sure. Homeland. These are currently my jams.
My life has lots of weird things happening right now. A big turning point, I feel. So I imagine I'll have some fun stories about my journey out here in La La Land.
And of course, I'll also have a bit of sci-fi geekery for any interested parties… the kind of geeking some of you have seen here in the past. Only this particular sci-fi I know very well…
An H+ Community
You see, I'd also like to use this blog as a place for H+ fans to engage me directly about all things concerning the series. Many already do on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+… but I'd love to form a discreet little community for the series here. I think it'll inspire us as we work on H+ Season 2. And in exchange, fans can expect insight into the series on a whole, our development process for H+ Season 2, and any other breaking news.
Now, for those of you who are happy to hear about the blogging return but not particularly interested in H+ Season 2 (or 1 for that matter), fear not. Any post dealing strictly with H+ will be labeled as such. And I'll do my best to keep some variety.
So that's about it.
Oh! Wait, no! I have to mention our great news! H+ won a Streamy this past weekend! Best Sci-Fi series on the web! Check out our acceptance speech below.
Talk to you soon.


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The Drop Stitch Garter Dishcloth is one of the first patterns I ever took the time to write down, and now it is available as a FREE Ravelry download!
Years ago I was asked to teach the drop stitch technique and could find no quick and easy patterns to demonstrate it.
Thus was born the Drop Stitch Garter Dishcloth; something we were all already knitting, written down in pattern form for ease of use. It's a quick knit that is so fun to make you may find yourself with a kitchen-full.
Use cotton yarn for a dishcloth, or substitute something soft and knit it longer to make a lovely scarf. Once you have the technique you can use it in as many ways as you can dream up!


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Uptown is changing as new developments start to go up and the Uptown Urban Center becomes a reality. A year-long planning effort is kicking off this Thursday, November 8th, with an Uptown Community Open House at the Seattle Center Pavillion (305 Thomas St).
Input received from residents, business owners, and community organizations will help design the Urban Design Framework (UDF) for the Uptown Urban Center. Thursday's open house is being hosted by the Department of Planning and Development and the Uptown Alliance, and they need your input, as well as your help in spreading the word about the meeting.
The Open House runs from 5:30pm to 7:30pm, and it's open to anyone with an interest in the future of Uptown. What issues are at hand? Success for local businesses, affordable housing for renters, cyclist and pedestrian safety, transit options, the arts, potential school and library locations, and everything else that makes up a walkable, vibrant, liveable neighborhood.
Here are some key questions that'll be on the agenda:
- What do you love about Uptown? What do you wish was different?
- How do you use the public spaces in Uptown?
- What would make you use them more?
- What role does Seattle Center play in your Uptown experience? What uses and/or services are needed in the neighborhood? What questions are we missing?
You can check out the City's Uptown plan online and the Uptown Alliance's Facebook page to check out the key issues and background on the Urban Center plans.
Think about what you'd like to see in a future Uptown Urban Center, and bring those ideas to Thursday's meeting.


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Holder Found in Contempt After Dems Walk Out of Vote
"As a result of the action taken today by the House, an unnecessary court conflict will ensue," Holder said.
June 28, 2012 - 1:45 pm
Issa confronted members who said that the vote was about anything but the "very narrow contempt" resolution that focused on obtaining withheld documents in Operation Fast and Furious.
"We've seen no evidence that the White House had anything to do with gun-walking operations," Cummings said, wryly noting that Republicans were "finally going to get the prize they have been seeking for over a year."
Issa, who propped a large photo of slain Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry behind his podium toward the end of the debate, said the resolution wasn't about a witch hunt, but getting to the bottom of Fast and Furious — "no ifs, no ands, no buts."
Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.), who represents the district in which the Terry family lives, said he "didn't roll off the cabbage wagon yesterday" and moved to refer the contempt resolution back to the Oversight panel for additional public hearings "so that this investigation can focus on the real issues at hand."
"My constituent Brian Terry wants the truth from the grave," Dingell said.
In response, Issa read from a Terry family statement that said Dingell doesn't represent them in this case, and has never spoken to the family even after their unanswered attempt to get help from Dingell's staff.
"My office is setting up a meeting with the Terry family as soon as I get back to Michigan," Dingell said.
The House defeated Dingell's motion to refer 172-251.
As the lower chamber then moved to the contempt resolution itself, a stream of Democrats, including Pelosi and Hoyer, filed down the center aisle and out the door.
"In their pursuit of power they've lost all sense of principle," Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.) said of Republicans, adding that the vote could find Congress with its historically low approval ratings "held in even more contempt than it is now."
"This should be labeled 'fast and foolish' or maybe 'fast and fake,'" said Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.).
"This isn't about politics; it's about the constitution," said Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.).
Holder gave a statement quickly after the vote, chiding some Republicans for concocting "truly absurd — truly absurd — conspiracy theories."
"Today's vote may make for good political theater," he said, but was a "crass effort and grave disservice to the American people."
"As a result of the action taken today by the House, an unnecessary court conflict will ensue," Holder said. "My efforts to resolve this matter short of such a battle were rebuffed by Congressman Issa and his supporters. It's clear that they were not interested in bringing an end to this dispute or obtaining the information they claimed to seek. Ultimately, their goal was the vote that – with the help of special interests – they now have engineered."


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Player: Jaza_
raztrainql_beta3-medium 26,075sec
Is there anyway to have public server on for speed runs?
I think QL has stopped all 'foreign' .pk3's to be placed in maps folder...
Godspeed, you fraggot!
My blog teckforce.com My site: stevenmcrae.com Quakelive tag: teckforce
They survive if you set them to "read only".
Unless I'm unaware of some recent bugfix? (ekhm...)
Can anyone do a tutorial on the puzzle room cause i got no idea how to get up from that room behind the lasers. I know there's buttons to shoot but it still seems impossible to get up higher.
I havent done it in a while jcb, but I think you have to do multiple grenade jumps. Shooting the buttons moves a ledge down within reach. I never completed it though because I had too little hp left for the final section after that.
If you have questions regarding Wolfcam, please ask in #WolfcamQL on QuakeNet (IRC or webIRC client required).
Can only do it with godmode too. If someone has a demo playing it regular pls post it.
Edit: and its hard to see anything in there too, even with vertexlight.
Last edited by Raz0rblade; 11-19-2011 at 03:10 PM.