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Economic policy.
The cyclical downturn will be prolonged in Sweden because of the troublesome state of government finances in many OECD countries, with a resultant tightening of credit, primarily in the euro area. Export growth will be modest in 2012-2013, and in view of the uncertain situation, some consumption and investment will be postponed. Monetary policy will consequently be highly expansionary in the next few years but will not be capable of bringing the economy into cyclical balance before 2016. In Sweden, on the other hand, there will be no active use of fiscal policy to soften the impact of the downturn. General government net lending will reach 1 percent of GDP in 2016.This chapter first presents the NIER's forecast for 2012-2016, with special focus on the period 2014-2016. (2) This is followed by a detailed analysis of the forecast development of monetary and fiscal policy in 2012-2016.
Two special analyses are presented at the end of the chapter. In one, "Disorganized Resolution of the Euro Area Debt Crisis Far Too Costly," there is a discussion on how serious developments can get if the debt crisis, contrary to the assumption in the forecast, is not resolved in an orderly manner. The other special analysis, "How to Compare the Macro Forecasts of the National Institute of Economic Research, the Government and the Swedish National Financial Management Authority (ESV)," provides a comparison of forecasts under the assumption that fiscal policy develops according to so-called "unchanged rules," that is, in a situation where no new fiscal policy decisions are taken.
The chapter begins with a brief summary.
The recession is severe in the US, the euro area and the United Kingdom, and all are major trading partners of Sweden. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 has been followed by a crisis in the government finances of many OECD countries. In the euro area the crisis in government finances has escalated further during the autumn and has thus been a factor in the severe deterioration of the economic outlook.
In addition, the European Council has decided to recommend higher capital coverage requirements for European banks in order to improve the preparedness of the banking system for future crises. The substantial tightening of credit discernible in the euro area will contribute to an even deeper and more prolonged contraction than previously feared (see Diagram 14). All aspects considered, the lacklustre development of the international economy will mean abnormally weak growth of the market for Swedish exports in 2012-2013. As a result of this development, together with the postponement of consumption and investment decisions, GDP growth will not be high enough for the labour market to improve (see Diagram 15). As described in the chapter "Development of the International Economy," it is assumed that the acute crisis in government finances within the euro area will subside in the first half of 2012. As confidence gradually returns both to our trading partners and in Sweden, pent-up needs for consumption and investment will result in gradually higher growth in 2013-2016.
The deterioration of the economic outlook, together with wider interest margins, particularly for households, calls for powerful monetary policy measures. Monetary policy will therefore shift in an even more expansionary direction in Sweden. The repo rate will be lowered to 0.75 percent in the first half of 2012 and will not be raised before the second half of 2013 (see Diagram 16). Nevertheless, unemployment will continue to rise and will still exceed 7 percent in 2015 (see Diagram 15).
On the other hand, the Government is not expected to pursue an even more active fiscal policy for the purpose of speeding up the recovery of the Swedish economy. As measured by the change in cyclically adjusted net lending, fiscal policy on average will be somewhat contractionary in 2012-2016, and the net lending of the general government sector will rise to slightly above 1 percent of GDP in 2016 (see Diagram 17).
International Development
It is assumed in the NIER's forecast that financial turbulence will decrease during 2012 and that the confidence of households and firms in the OECD area will gradually be restored. This requires that the problems with government debt be resolved in an orderly fashion (see the chapter "Development of the International Economy"). (3) However, households in many OECD countries where real estate prices have fallen will also be forced in 2013 to maintain a high level of saving in order to reduce their indebtedness. Moreover, the need for contractionary fiscal policy measures will remain substantial and contribute to further slackening of growth in 2013. In the euro area and the US, the fiscal policy measures are expected to total about I percent of GDP in 2013. All factors considered, growth will rise somewhat in the OECD countries but will not be high enough to bring any significant decrease in unemployment. Thus, resource utilization will still be low at the end of 2013 (see Diagram 18).
Recovery will be stronger in 2014-2015, with consumption and investment as the principal driving forces. In the OECD countries, GDP will grow by an annual average of 2.5 percent (see Table 2), which is somewhat higher than the potential growth rate. Resource allocation will thus increase and will approach balance toward the end of the period (see Diagram 18).
In 2012 austerity measures to relieve the strain on resource utilization in several emerging economies will mean that GDP in these markets will grow more slowly in 2012. During the period 2013-2016, GDP will increase in the growth economies by about 7 percent per year (see Table 2), a rate compatible with a balanced development of the economy.
With the lacklustre development of the economy in the OECD countries and more limited increases in prices of primary products, inflation will be decreasing in most countries in 2012 (see the chapter "Development of the International Economy"). The slack economy will limit the rate of price increases in 2013-2016 as well (see Table 2). Not until 2015 will CPI inflation reach the inflation targets of the respective central banks in most OECD countries. Low inflation and a continued low level of resource utilization in the next few years will also require maintaining an expansionary monetary policy in the major economies of the OECD. Since resource utilization will still be below normal in 2016, monetary policy will be expansionary even though inflation is on target. Not until 2016 will policy interest rates in the euro area and the US approach levels indicative of a neutral monetary policy (see Diagram 19).
Macroeconomic Development in Sweden
The gloomy outlook in other countries is now leaving a clear imprint on the Swedish economy. The NIER's economic tendency indicator, which is an overall measure of sentiment in the economy, is now dropping just about as rapidly as during the initial phase of the financial crisis of 2008 (see Diagram 20). The NIER's present assessment is that GDP will decrease in the final quarter of this year and then remain largely unchanged during the first half of 2012.
Domestic conditions for growth in the Swedish economy, however, are relatively favourable. In contrast to many other countries, public finances are strong and household saving is high. Furthermore, the business sector is competitive by international standards, as is reflected in sizable foreign trade surpluses.
Foreign trade being of such importance, the Swedish economy is heavily dependent on developments in other countries. It is assumed in the forecast that the acute problems associated with government debt in the euro area will subside during the first half of 2012 and that confidence will gradually return to financial markets (see the special analysis "Disorganized Resolution of the Euro Area Debt Crisis Far Too Costly"). Nevertheless, large-scale commitments to save will result in very slack development of the economy in the OECD countries, and particularly the euro area, for the next few years. The downturn in the OECD will therefore be prolonged (see Diagram 18).
The low growth in the OECD countries will curtail market growth for Swedish exporting companies in 2012 (see Diagram 21). Particularly hard-hit by the weakness in international demand will be input and investment goods, which are especially important for Swedish exporting industries. Therefore, Swedish exports will virtually stagnate in 2012 and contribute to the sharp slowdown in GDP growth. This means that resource utilization in the Swedish economy as a whole will decrease rapidly in the next few quarters, and that unemployment will begin rising. For the full year 2012, the so-called output gap will be nearly -3 percent (see Diagram 22). The recession is also evident on the labour market, where unemployment will be about 8 percent in 2012.
In 2013-2016 potential GDP will increase by an average of about 2.3 percent per year (see Table 3). This growth will be driven primarily by rising productivity in the business sector as a consequence of technological development and investment in productive capital. At the same time, the labour force will be expanding somewhat as a consequence of both demographic developments and the Government's reforms in the area of labour market policy (see the special analysis "Long-Term Effects of Economic Policy Reforms on the Labour Market").
With the combination of substantial unutilized resources at the end of 2012 and a potential growth rate in 2013-2016 averaging 2.3 percent per year, there will be a considerable margin for the Swedish economy to expand in 2013-2016 without any tendency toward overheating.
The rate of growth for both the Swedish export market and for Swedish exports will average only about 2 percent per year in 2008-2012, far below the historical trend (see Diagram 21). Although the Swedish export market will recover and grow by more than 7 percent per year in 2013-2016, demand for Swedish exports of goods will be lower than it would have been according to the trend prior to the financial crisis. Growth in domestic demand will thus become increasingly important if the Swedish economy is to recover during 2013-2016.
Demand from the general government sector, however, is expected to show little growth in 2013-2016, when fiscal policy is anticipated to shift in a somewhat contractionary direction (see the section "Fiscal Policy" below). This means that demand, particularly from households and firms, must increase if growth is to pick up in Sweden. Concern on financial markets, however, has contributed to substantial decreases in asset prices in Sweden as well. Partly as a consequence of this development, together with a gloomier labour market outlook, households will be cautious about increasing their consumption in the first half of 2012 despite low interest rates. Only later will households begin to increase their consumption more substantially, when the concern on financial markets subsides and the labour market stabilizes.
For the full year 2012, household consumption will increase by a modest 1 percent. This will be the second consecutive year of extremely low growth in consumption. This will also mean that household saving will rise to historically high levels (see Diagram 23). The combination of low interest rates, a brightening outlook on the labour market and pent-up needs for consumption will mean that household consumption picks up in 2013. Households will thereafter increase their consumption by some 3.5 percent per year in 2014-2016 (see Table 4). By historical standards, this is a high growth rate, and it reflects initially higher than normal saving. Thus, household consumption will increase somewhat as a share of GDP after the previous decrease in 2010-2012 (see Diagram 24).
A prerequisite for such a development is that employment goes up and that the stance of stabilization policy remains expansionary. The Riksbank is therefore expected to lower its policy interest rate during the first half of 2012 to 0.75 percent (see the section "Monetary Policy, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates", below). This level of the interest rate will be maintained until the end of the first half of 2013, when recovery will be more robust and a cycle of interest rate hikes begins.
Gross fixed capital formation dropped sharply in connection with the financial crisis of 2008/2009. As a share of GDP, investment fell from 20 percent in 2008 to 18 percent in 2009 (see Diagram 24). Investment has subsequently remained at this relatively low level in proportion to GDP. The proportion will rise only slightly in 2012 since some companies will postpone their investments in view of the high uncertainty about future developments. Housing investment will also decrease in 2012. When demand picks up in 2013 and uncertainty diminishes, firms will have a rapidly rising need to increase their production capacity, a normal development in an economic upturn. Investment will therefore go up by 6-7 percent per year in 2013-2015; thereafter, the rate of increase will fall off to about 5 percent in 2016 (see Diagram 25 and Table 4). Investment will then equal about 20 percent of GDP, a level that in the NIER's opinion may be considered normal in the long run.
At the same time, the recovery means that imports will increase more rapidly. During 2012 imports will virtually stagnate, but as demand picks up during 2013, imports will rise by 6 percent (see Table 4). The increase in net exports in recent years will thus be interrupted (see Diagram 24). In 2014-2016 imports will continue to grow at a relatively fast pace. The principal explanation is rising demand, but in addition the upswing will be fuelled by a krona that has strengthened by more than 5 percent during the period 2013-2016 (see Diagram 26). Net exports will gradually drop just below 6 percent of GDP in 2016. Sweden will thus maintain a high, though gradually diminishing, level of net saving in relation to other countries.
On an overall basis, GDP growth will rise to 3 percent in 2013 after the temporary slump in 2012 (see Diagram 27 and Table 4). Growth will remain high in 2014-2016, and resource utilization in the economy will therefore gradually rise. In 2016 the economy will be virtually in cyclical balance, as will be reflected in an output gap close to zero (see Diagram 22).
The higher growth of GDP in 2013 will not be fully reflected on the labour market. The reason is that firms will not have reduced staff to any major extent, despite lacklustre growth in demand during 2012. Thus, there will be a relative abundance of unused resources at firms when demand begins to accelerate in the latter months of 2012 and in 2013. Employment will therefore increase by only 0.3 percent for the full year 2013 (see Diagram 28 and Table 5).
Thus, there will be no clear turning point on the labour market until 2014, when employment will increase by 0.7 percent. At the same time, unemployment will begin to recede somewhat after peaking at around 8 percent in 2013. In 2015-2016 employment will increase by an annual average of about 1 percent. The labour force will be growing at an average rate of only 0.3 percent during these years; this means that unemployment will drop back relatively quickly to 6.5 percent in 2016. This level is roughly equivalent to the NIER's estimate of equilibrium unemployment for that year (see the special analysis "The NIER's Assessment of Structural Unemployment"). The labour market gap will thus be virtually zero in 2016 (see Diagram 22 above).
The weakening labour market is expected to be one reason why the current pay negotiations will result in increases of more than 3 percent next year (according to the Short-Term Wage and Salary Statistics). As a consequence of the soft labour market in 2012-2013, the rate of pay increases in 2013 will be less than the 3.5 percent that the NIER considers compatible with the inflation target in the longer term (see Diagram 29 and Table 6). In 2014-2016 earnings will gradually accelerate as the labour market improves, and in 2016 earnings will rise by 3.7 percent.
A temporary slump in the development of productivity- during 2012, when firms to a large extent are expected to retain their staff despite a lacklustre demand tendency, will mean that unit labour costs in the business sector rise more rapidly than usual (see Diagram 29). In 2013-2015 there will be a cyclical recovery of productivity when resource utilization rises at firms. Productivity. will then increase by an average of more than 2.5 percent per year. Together with pay increases of more than 3.5 percent, this will mean that unit labour costs increase more slowly in these years than in years of cyclical balance. Moreover, prices of imports will be very slack during the forecast period. This soft tendency will be due largely to an appreciating krona (see Diagram 26 above).
All factors considered, the costs of firms will increase more slowly than normal during the forecast period as a whole. In 2013-2015 inflation in terms of the CPI with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) will be about 1.5 percent (see Diagram 30 and Table 6). In 2016 inflation in terms of the CPIF will rise to nearly 2 percent when unit labour costs and prices of imports are rising more rapidly and the economy is approaching cyclical balance. In terms of the CPI, inflation will be rising much faster during 2014-2016. The reason is that the Riksbank will be raising the repo rate during this period, so that rising home mortgage interest rates will be fuelling CPI inflation.
Monetary Policy, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Resource utilization in the Swedish economy is low, as is reflected in a high rate of unemployment that will rise further in the future, as well as decreasing capacity utilization. The severe recession in the wake of the financial crisis will now also be followed by a new downturn in demand. At the same time, underlying inflation (CPIF) will be low. To stimulate the economy further, the repo rate will therefore be cut during the spring of 2012 to 0.75 percent. Moreover, monetary policy will remain expansionary for several years in order to support economic recovery and in time to bring inflation in line with its target. The NIER's assessment is that resource utilization in the Swedish economy will not be in balance until 2016, when unemployment will be about 6.5 percent. Monetary policy will gradually become less expansionary and is expected to be neutral at the end of the period.
It is assumed in the forecast that the Riksbank lowered the repo rate by 0.25 percentage point at its monetary policy meeting in December 2011. (4) The repo rate will be lowered by an additional 1.0 percentage point during the spring of 2012. Thereafter it will remain at 0.75 percent for over a year. To judge by the pricing of forward contracts, the market as of mid-December was also expecting the repo rate to decline, though at a somewhat slower rate (see Diagram 31).
The reductions in the repo rate will come in anticipation of deteriorating demand in the Swedish economy for the next few quarters. Moreover, short-term fixed interest rates on home mortgage loans have continued to rise even though the repo rate has remained unchanged since July (see Diagram 32). Home mortgage interest rates have risen primarily in relation to the interbank interest rate. Since the interbank rate is a measure of the financing costs of banks, this indicates that the banks' margins on home mortgage loans have increased. The interbank rate is also somewhat higher than it normally would be in comparison to the repo rate. One explanation is that the financial turbulence has led to higher risk premiums for financial institutions in general. This has also entailed higher borrowing costs for Swedish banks.
The NIER is assuming that the differential between the interest rate on home mortgage loans and the repo rate will remain somewhat larger than normal in the coming period, but that as the financial turbulence subsides during 2012, it will begin to drop back to more normal levels. With the higher home mortgage interest rates, monetary policy in the immediate future, all else being equal, will be somewhat more contractionary than would be the case with a more normal situation on the home mortgage loan market. Thus, the need for reducing the repo rate in order to make monetary policy sufficiently expansionary will be greater than normal. Alternatively, the Riksbank can take other steps to provide greater liquidity that would lead to lower home mortgage interest rates.
The repo rate cuts will contribute to a declining repo rate in real terms in 2012 and 2013 (see Diagram 33); thus, monetary policy, if judged solely by the repo rate, will be more expansionary. A narrowing differential between home mortgage interest rates and the repo rate will also contribute to a more expansionary monetary policy.
The expansionary monetary policy should also be viewed in light of the state of the economy, which is now entering a down-turn in a situation where unemployment is already high and has been so since 2009. It is therefore very important to avert a sizable increase in unemployment during the next few years; otherwise there could be lasting negative effects on both labour force participation and unemployment.
The expansionary monetary policy will support the recovery of the economy beginning in the second half of 2012 (see Diagram 33). Higher resource utilization will help in the longer term to stabilize inflation around the inflation target. CPIF inflation will rise from 1.4 percent to just under 2.0 percent in 2016. As a consequence of the rising nominal repo rate, the real repo rate will also increase during the period 2014-2016, and monetary policy will gradually become less expansionary (see Diagram 33).
After the reductions in the first half of 2012, the repo rate is expected to be just under the ECB's policy interest rate until 2013 (see Diagram 34). The overnight lending rate on the interbank market in the euro area, however, was slightly above 0.5 percent in mid-December, which was less than the policy interest rate. The overnight rate is expected to remain at that level until the ECB raises interest rates again at the outset of 2014. At the same time, interest rates for households and firms in the euro area have risen during the autumn because of the high degree of uncertainty on financial markets and higher capital coverage requirements for banks (see the section "The Euro Area" in the chapter "Development of the International Economy"). The uncertainty on financial markets is expected to diminish during 2012.
The repo rate will be higher than the US policy interest rate (federal funds rate) through the first half of 2014. The relatively high level of the repo rate during this period is explained by the fact that resource utilization in the Swedish economy, despite deteriorating in 2012, will be higher than in the euro area and the US.
During the period 2014-2016 policy interest rates will be raised again in the US, the euro area and Sweden, and will rise toward more normal levels (see Diagram 34) as the recovery of their respective economies proceeds.
The rate of interest on Swedish government bonds has decreased to exceptionally low levels during the autumn (see Diagram 35). The interest rate on 10-year government bonds has not been so low at any other time in the entire postwar period. A more pessimistic outlook for growth, particularly in OECD countries, and concern over the future course of the debt crisis in the euro have contributed to the decrease in Swedish long-term rates. The reason is that investors consider a Swedish government bond to be a relatively safe investment. The increased demand for Swedish government bonds has pushed up their price, resulting in a lower interest rate. With growing confidence on financial markets, interest rates on Swedish government bonds will be rising in the period ahead (see Diagram 35 and Table 7).
The krona strengthened rapidly through February 2011, but since then it has weakened to roughly), the same level as at the end of 2010, as measured by the KIX, the nominal effective index for the krona (see Diagram 36). (5) Worry on financial markets caused by the debt crisis in the euro area has contributed to the weakening of the krona. The krona depreciated during the same period by 5 percent against the dollar and by 4 percent against the euro (see Diagram 37). The assessment is that the weakening observed in 2011 is temporary and that the krona will resume strengthening during the forecast period.
In the longer term, the fundamental determining factors for the krona, and particularly an increasingly strong net foreign position, indicate that the krona will appreciate in real terms. In 2016 the krona will have strengthened in real terms by 2 percent compared to 2010. Since inflation is expected to be higher abroad than in Sweden, this will entail a nominal appreciation of the krona by 5 percent for the same period (see Table 8) (6).
Fiscal Policy
In the Budget Bill for 2012, the Government proposes new unfunded measures totalling SEK 15 billion, to be implemented in 2012. The NIER's forecast is that in addition to these steps further measures totalling SEK 50 billion will be taken in 2013-2016. With these additional measures, cyclically adjusted net lending will be 1.5 percent of potential GDP in 2016, which means that actual net lending is expected to be in line with the surplus target. In a fact box at the end of this section, the principles for the NIER's fiscal policy forecasts are presented.
According to the surplus target, the net lending of the general government sector is to average 1 percent of GDP over an economic cycle. The NIER uses cyclically adjusted net lending to determine whether fiscal policy is consistent with the surplus target.
The surplus target should primarily be given a forward-looking interpretation to determine the margin for unfunded measures or, in the alternative, the need for cutting expenditure. It may be important, however, to analyze goal achievement in retrospect in order to identify any systematic deviations from the surplus target. If there are any systematic deviations, there may be a need for changes in the fiscal policy framework for the purpose of improving goal achievement.
The surplus target was introduced in 2000. During 2000-2010 actual net lending was equivalent to an average of 1.1 percent of actual GDP, and cyclically adjusted net lending was equivalent to the same percentage of potential GDP (see Table 9).
To obtain a better evaluation of whether the surplus target has been met, the analysis should be performed with the economic cycle as the starting point. (7) During the eight-year economic cycle of 2000-2007, net lending averaged 1.3 percent of GDP. Cyclically adjusted net lending averaged 0.7 percent of potential GDP, for the output gap was slightly positive, on average, in these years (see Diagram 38).
During the five-year economic cycle of 2005-2009, both actual and cyclically adjusted net lending were almost 2 percent, and the output gap averaged -0.6 percent. Net lending appears to be on the high side in relation to the surplus target during this period.
Referring to the government debt crisis in Europe and the uncertainty in other countries, the Government has decided to postpone some reforms. One reform that has been postponed is an additional tax credit on earned income. In the Budget Bill for 2012, the Government proposes new unfunded measures totalling about SEK 15 billion for that year (see the special analysis "The Budget Bill for 2012"). In addition, the average local government tax rate will be raised in 2012. (8) The increase in local government taxes will generate about SEK 1 billion in additional tax revenue in 2012.
With the measures mentioned above, cyclically adjusted net lending will decrease as a share of potential GDP from 1.2 to 0.9 percent between 2011 and 2012. The stance of fiscal policy in 2012 will thus be somewhat expansionary (see the explanation in the margin).
The starting point for the NIER's fiscal policy forecast is the surplus target in the Government's fiscal policy framework. It is assumed in the fiscal policy forecast that cyclically adjusted net lending will be 1.5 percent of potential GDP over an economic cycle so as to increase the probability that actual net lending will average 1 percent of GDP. In view of the low level of resource utilization in the economy, it is justfiable to let cyclically adjusted net lending temporarily drop below 1.5 percent. The opposite applies if resource utilization is high.
In the NIER's opinion, for public finances to be in line with the surplus target, further unfunded measures totalling SEK 50 billion will need to be taken in the period 2013-2016. The Government is not expected to follow an even more expansionary fiscal policy during the next few years for the purpose of speeding up the recover), of the Swedish economy. The forecast is therefore that there will be a gradual increase in cyclically adjusted net lending to 1.5 percent in 2016 (see Diagram 39).
This means that unfunded measures totalling SEK 11 billion are forecast for 2013. With this fiscal policy there will be no appreciable effect on cyclically adjusted net lending in 2013, an indication that the stance of fiscal policy will be neutral. The apportionment of the remaining margin of SEK 39 billion is shown in Table 10 below.
With unfunded fiscal policy measures totalling SEK 50 billion in 2013-2016, cyclically adjusted net lending will be 1.5 percent of potential GDP in 2016, which is considered to be in line with the surplus target. Actual net lending will then be 1.1 percent of GDP (see Table 11 and Diagram 39). The fact that cyclically adjusted net lending will be less than 1.5 percent of GDP during the period 2013-2015 is justified by the low level of resource utilization (see Diagram 38).
There is no conflict of objectives between the surplus target and unfunded measures totalling SEK 50 billion in 2013-2016. Without any unfunded measures during this period, cyclically adjusted net lending would amount to 2.7 percent in 2016. Resource utilization would then be even lower (see the special analysis "How to Compare the Macro Forecasts of the NIER, the Government and the ESV?")
The SEK 11 billion in unfunded measures forecast for 2013 has been allocated according to the NIER's assessment based on the Government's announcements of future measures and the stance of fiscal policy, as well as the assessment of the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SALAR) that the average local government tax rate will increase in 2013 (see Table 12).
The allocation of the remaining SEK 39 billion in fiscal policy measures in 2014-2016 follows the principles described in the fact box below: that general government consumption will increase according to demographically determined needs, that general government investment will increase at the same rate as GDP and that funds will be appropriated to prevent any deterioration in real terms of the system of transfer payments. After the appropriation to safeguard the value of the system in real terms, SEK 6 billion remain. This amount will be distributed to households in the form of additional transfer payments. This means a total of SEK 39 billion in higher expenditure in 2016 than with unchanged rules in 2014-2016 (see Table 13).
Principles for the NIER's Fiscal Policy Forecasts
The surplus target is the anchor. The starting point for the NIER's fiscal policy forecasts is the Government's fiscal policy Framework. (9) Among the factors on which the fiscal policy forecast is based, the surplus target is the anchor. However, the expenditure ceiling and the balanced budget requirement for local governments are also considered (see the explanation in the margin).
The NIER regards the surplus target as forward-looking; in other words, the forecast development of net lending is to be in line with the target. The NIER uses a measure of cyclically adjusted net lending as an indicator of whether the surplus target has been met.
Principle of Caution in Interpreting the Surplus Target.
The difference between actual and cyclically adjusted net lending depends, among other things, on the output gap. As measured by the NIER, the output gap has historically been negative. If this is the case in the future as well, the mean value of cyclically adjusted net lending will be higher than the mean value of actual net lending. The Government takes this risk into account in determining whether the target has been met. (10) For these reasons, the NIER assumes in its forecast that cyclically adjusted net lending will be 1.5 percent of potential GDP over an economic cycle in order to increase the probability that actual net lending will average 1 percent of GDP.
Need to Stimulate the Economy or Tighten Economic Policy.
Within the framework for the surplus target, the NIER also considers the need for fiscal policy stimuli or for a tighter fiscal policy based on whether resource utilization in the economy is lower or higher than normal. For example, a cyclical downturn (upturn) may mean that cyclically adjusted net lending should temporarily be less (greater) than 1.5 percent in order to bring the economy more rapidly into balance.
Difference between a Forecast and a Recommendation.
The NIER's fiscal policy forecast is governed to a large extent by proposals and announcements in the Budget Bill and in the Spring Fiscal Policy Bill. As for future years, for which information is not available in budget bills, the fiscal policy forecast is based on the NIER's assessment of how the fiscal policy framework will be applied. The NIER differentiates between the need for a forecast fiscal policy and for a recommended one. The distinction is applicable if the Government clearly announces that it intends to follow a fiscal policy that in the NIER's opinion deviates plainly from the policy called for by the surplus target and the level of resource utilization in the economy.
Allocation of the Content of Fiscal Policy.
For the years immediately to follow, the fiscal policy forecast is based on the Government's announcements of future measures and the stance of fiscal policy. As for subsequent years, for which information is not available--currently 2014 and thereafter--the basic guiding principle for the revenue forecast is that the implicit tax rates will be unchanged. In regard to expenditure, the basic principle is that funds will be appropriated so that 1) there is no deterioration in the system of transfer payments in real terms, 2) general government consumption follows demographically determined needs and 3) general government investment follows the development of GDP. If further adjustments are needed in order to meet the surplus target, this will be done through adjustment of transfer payments to households.
Fiscal Policy Concepts
The fiscal policy multiplier refers to the effect of fiscal policy variables on GDP, for example. Thus, if general government consumption increases or taxes are reduced by SEK 10 billion, and GDP as a result increases by SEK 7 billion, the multiplier is 0.7.
The term unfunded measures refers to fiscal policy decisions on increasing expenditure and/or reducing taxes, when such decisions are not funded by equally large decreases in expenditure and/or higher taxes in some other area. Thus, these measures in themselves constitute a deterioration in the net lending of the general government sector and, in addition, normally have a positive effect (multiplier) on GDP.
Cyclically adjusted net lending is a calculation of what the net lending of the general government sector would be with balanced resource utilization (a cyclically neutral state) and a normal composition of major tax bases. It is usually presented as a share of potential GDP.
The stance of fiscal policy in a particular year is derived from the change in cyclically adjusted net lending in relation to potential GDP. If cyclically adjusted net lending is decreasing as a share of potential GDP, this indicates that the stance of fiscal policy is expansionary in regard to resource utilization (potential GDP) in the economy. The reason may be that cyclically adjusted tax revenue (because of reduced tax rates, for example), is not keeping up with the increase in potential GDP, or that cyclically adjusted general government expenditure is rising faster than potential GDP, or a combination of both. Correspondingly, if cyclically adjusted net lending is increasing in proportion to potential GDP, this indicates that the stance of fiscal policy is contractionary. Finally, fiscal policy is neutral when cyclically adjusted net lending is unchanged in relation to potential GDP
In the area of fiscal policy, the term unchanged rules refers to the development of fiscal policy variables when no further fiscal policy decisions are taken by Parliament and the Government. As a practical matter, however, there are significant problems in drawing boundaries.
(2) A detailed description of the short-term forecast, for 2011-2013, can be found in the next five chapters.
(3) See the special analysis "Disorganized Resolution of the Euro Area Debt Crisis Far Too Costly" for a discussion on a disorganized resolution of the crisis. As noted there, such a development would entail great risks; this realization makes it more likely that an orderly resolution will be reached.
(4) The NIER concluded the calculations for this forecast on December 15, 2011. The Riksbank published its monetary policy decision on December 20, 2011.
(5) See Erlandsson, M. and A. Markowski, "The Effective Exchange Rate Index KIX--Theory and Practice," Working Paper no. 95, NIER, 2006.
(6) Inflation abroad here refers to the countries included in KIX. In a number of these countries, e.g., India, Brazil and China, inflation is relatively high.
(7) An economic cycle has been defined here as the period either between two troughs (2005-2009) or between two peaks (2000-2007) of the output gap.
(8) This increase refers to the net increase in the local government tax rate. The average local government tax for municipalities will be lowered in 2012, and the average county council district tax will be raised.
(9) See "Framework for Fiscal Policy", Government Letter 2010/11:79. The fiscal policy framework includes the surplus target, the ceiling on central government expenditure and the balanced budget requirement for local governments, which are also discussed in the chapter "Public Finances". See the brief explanation of these terms in the margin.
(10) See "Framework for Fiscal Policy", Government Letter 2010/11:79, p. 23.
Table 2 Selected International Indicators Percentage change 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP, OECD (1) 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 GDP, emerging economies (1,2) 6.0 5.6 6.2 7.3 7.2 6.9 GDP, worldwide (1) 3.8 3.4 4.1 5.0 4.9 4.6 CPI, OECD 2.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 CPI, worldwide 4.9 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 (1) Constant prices. (2) Emerging economies here denote all non-OECD countries. Sources: IMF, OECD and NIER. Table 3 Potential Variables Percentage change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Potential GDP 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 Potential hours worked 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 of which potential employment 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 of which demographic contribution 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Potential productivity 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Potential productivity, business sector 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 Note: The calculations are calendar-adjusted. NIER's assessment of the potential productivity development is based, among other things, on the development of the capital stock and the total factor productivity (TFP) trend in the business sector. Sources: Statistics Sweden and NIER. Table 4 Supply and Demand Percentage change, constant prices, calendar-adjusted values 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Household consumption expenditure 1.4 1.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 General government consumption expenditure 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Gross fixed-capital 6.1 3.0 6.2 7.3 6.4 5.2 formation Final domestic demand 2.4 1.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 Stock building (1) 0.7 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total domestic demand 3.1 0.5 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.0 Exports 8.2 1.0 5.0 6.7 6.7 5.9 Total demand 4.9 0.7 3.9 4.7 4.6 4.1 Imports 5.7 0.2 6.0 8.1 8.1 7.1 Net exports (1) 1.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 GDP 4.5 1.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 (1) Change in percent of previous year's GDP. Sources: Statistics Sweden and NIER. Table 5 Labour Market Percentage change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Number of hours worked (1) 1.3 0.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 Labour force 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 Number of employed 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 Unemployment (2) 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.5 (1) Calendar-adjusted. (2) Percent of labour force. Sources: Statistics Sweden and NIER. Table 6 Wages and Prices Percentage change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hourly earnings (1) 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 Hourly earnings, business sector (1) 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.7 CPI 3.0 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.4 CPIF 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 (1) According to Short-Term Wage and Salary Statistics. Sources: Statistics Sweden and NIER. Table 7 Interest Rates Percent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 At year-end Repo rate 1.75 0.75 1.25 1.75 3.00 3.75 Annual average Repo rate 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 5-year government bond 2.3 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.3 10-year government bond 2.6 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.5 Sources: The Riksbank and NIER. Table 8 Exchange Rate Indices for the Swedish Krona Annual averages 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 KIX 107.7 107.9 105.9 103.9 102.8 102.3 TCW index 122.4 123.3 120.5 117.8 116.3 115.6 Sources: The Riksbank and NIER. Table 9 General Government Net Lending, Backward-Looking Averages Percent of GDP and percent of potential GDP, respectively 2000-2010 2000-2007 2005-2009 Peak-to- Trough-to- peak trough Net lending 1.1 1.3 1.8 Cyclically adjusted net lending 1.1 0.7 1.9 Output gap -0.4 0.8 -0.6 Sources: Statistics Sweden and NIER. Table 10 Unfunded Measures Forecast for 2013-2016 Billions of SEK, change from previous year 2013- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Unfunded measures forecast 11 11 13 15 50 Source: NIER. Table 11 General Government Net Lending and Cyclically Adjusted Net Lending Given Different Fiscal Policy Forecasts Percent of potential GDP 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net lending 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 Net lending excluding additional measures 2013-2016 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 Cyclically adjusted net lending 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 Cyclically adjusted net lending excluding additional measures 2013-2016 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 Source: NIER. Table 12 Assumed Allocation of Unfunded Measures Forecast by NIER for 2013 Billions of SEK, change from previous year Household direct taxes (1) -3 Revenue -3 General government consumption 3 General government gross fixed-capital formation 3 Transfers to households 2 Expenditure 8 Total -11 (1) Including increased local government taxes. Note: The table shows the direct effect on net lending of a measure with no consideration given to the possibility that the measure may give rise to changes in behaviour, which in turn may lead to changes in tax revenue and transfer payments. Source: NIER. Table 13 Unfunded Measures 2014-2016 Billions of SEK, change from previous year 2014 2015 2016 2014- 2016 Total effect on cyclically adjusted net lending -11 -13 -15 -39 Of which preserving the real value of general government expenditure (1) 9 12 12 33 Preserving the real value of general government expenditure means that funds are appropriated so that general government consumption increases at the same rate as demographically determined needs, that general government investment increases at the same rate as GDP and that deterioration of the real value of transfers is prevented. Source: NIER.
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Giffard House Hotel
- Continental Breakfast
- Suites
- Free High-Speed Internet
- Free parking
TripAdvisor Reviews Giffard House Hotel Winchester
Travel Blogs from Winchester
Winchester, Canterbury, and 50 Shades of Grey
... buried there, which really has nothing to do with holiness but is cool anyway.
Winchester is a lovely cathedral, no offense, but I began to remember my Australian friends of thirty years ago and their acronym for these, "ABC—Another Bloody Cathedral." England, and Europe for that matter, is filled with such magnificent religious architectural masterpieces. In Britain, generally speaking, the stained glass that distinguishes many of them ...
Changing Light Bulbs by Furniture Moving
... br> We fiddled and fiddled and fiddled and fiddled and there was just no way we could get the blasted new bulb into this light socket. Totally by feel and stretched to the limit wasn't working. It is way too complicated, albeit a lovely fixture and quite stunning a decor, but way too complicated to continue to try and fit in the light bulb by feel only plus we had to do three of them. So the ladder is ...
After Vacation let Down
... security thing has gotten way out of hand because of a couple of jerks, basically, who should have been shot anyway. If it weren't for the joy of seeing new places and new things and meeting new people, exploring new cultures, and learning new things, I'd probably never leave the house.
Two, the let down when you get back. You've had your fun, your adventure, your little bit of holiday and maybe it went well, maybe it didn't ...
Bye Bye Blighty!
... by following the east coast down through Scarborough and Bridlington, having loved Whitby so much. It was an interesting contrast, to say the least.
Scarborough looked very promising as we entered the town with wide streets and large period style houses. On a piece of high rocky headland sits the 11th century ruins of Scarborough castle and it is this that sort of separates the sea front into two bays. The north bay ...
King Arthur's Table in Winchester
Good morning!! Today we had a brief class by Moody in the flat about the hierarchy and history of the Tudor dynasty and leading up to the Jacobean era. After a brief lecture we grabbed our train to Winchester for some more teachings. Once we arrived, we took a tour of the council building holding Arthur's round table ( which is a bit of a conspiracy). Come to find the tree used to make the table would have been from the 1500's ...

subset: commoncrawl


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June 1, 2014
Sheriff's Sprint Triathlon
Claudia's Way
Ludlow, MA
9:00 AM Start
Sprint Pool Triathlon
Swim 300 Yds, Bike 9 Miles, Run 3 Miles
About the 8th Annual Sheriff's Sprint Triathlon
Year after year, as the first triathlon of the season in this region, the Randall Boys & Girls Club Triathlon lets triathletes of all levels test out their early season fitness in a fun and competitive environment. The swim is up and down the 6 lanes of the pool for a total
of 300 yards. It's a time trial start with swimmers sent off one at a
time. Your swim start time is based upon the estimated time that you put
down on your registration form. Please try to be as accurate as
possible with your estimated swim time.
The bike route meanders through Ludlow. It goes from Claudia's
Way to Sportsman Road to Chapin Street to Center Street to Miller Street
to Chapin Street to Sportsman Road to Claudia's Way and back to the
Boys & Girls Club.
The run course goes through a few neighborhoods. It goes
from Claudia's Way to Sportsman Road to Chapin Street, Crossover Chapin
Street to Center Street, to Stivens Terrace, to Mountain View to
Parkview to Chapin back to Sportsman Road to Claudia's Way. Then it's under the giant FIRM arch at the finish line.
Registration and Entry Fees
Entry Fees
$70 Individual, $80 relay team
$70 Individual, $80 relay team
$10 Late fee for race day registration
$12 Single day USA Triathlon license
Registration available online til midnight the Thursday before event.
Packet Pick up: Race morning at venue from 7:30-8:45 AM
Registration available online til midnight the Thursday before event.
Packet Pick up: Race morning at venue from 7:30-8:45 AM
Course Maps
Come to race, but stay for the festivities. Your triathlon experience includes a DJ playing great music, yummy post race treats, and sponsor giveaways.
Race Divisions and Awards
Standard USA Triathlon age group divisions in five year increments are employed for this event, for example: 30 to 34 years, 35 to 39 years, etc. Age group is determined by age as of December 31, 2014. There is a Clydesdale category for men who weigh 220+ pounds and an Athena category for women who weight 150+ pounds. Relay categories consist of 3 members. 1 swimmer/ 1 biker/ 1 runner.Awards are given to the top three finishers in each age group, and in the Clydesdale and Athena divisions, and to all three members of the top male relay team, top female relay team, and mixed relay team. And a random award or two may be given out at the race director's discretion.
Official Bicycle Mechanic and Support
Official bicycle mechanic and support for this event is Fit Werx. Check them out at: http://www.fitwerx.com/
USA Triathlon Sanctioned Event
The Sheriffs Triathlon is a USA Triathlon Sanctioned Event managed by a USA Triathlon Certified Race Director. All athletes either must present a valid USA Triathlon annual membership card at registration or purchase a single day USA Triathlon license, no exceptions. Single day licenses may be purchased for $12 during the registration process. If you are planning to do at least three USA Triathlon sanctioned events in a one year period then you might want to purchase an annual membership from USA Triathlon for $45. For more info: www.usatriathlon.org.Triathlon Training and Coaching
Vmps, the official triathlon training & coaching organization for the F.I.R.M. Race Series, can help you achieve your endurance sports goals. They offer professional triathlon coaching services for beginners through elite, open water swim clinics, triathlon training swims, six week Power Swimming classes, a time trial series, a triathlon boot camp for women, and sports nutrition services. Their Tri Barn in Grafton, Ma includes a computrainer studio, professional bike fitting, wetsuit rentals, and individualized shopping for tri bikes, wheels, Computrainers, and wetsuits. Plus their triathlon team provides a welcome opportunity for like-minded folks to train and race together. With their combined offerings, Vmps provides you with everything you need for your multisport lifestyle.
Directions & Lodging
The race venue is at the Randall Boys& Girls Club, 91 Claudia's Way in Ludlow, Ma.
Comfort Inn & Suites
321 Center Street
Ludlow, Ma
Local Attractions
Six Flags New EnglandThe largest theme park in New England, Six Flags includes a theme park and a water park.
Since 1959 this Hall of Fame has been celebrating and remembering the game's greatest moments and brightest stars.
F.I.R.M. has partnered with the Hampden County Sheriff Department to put on this event.
USA Triathlon rules apply. The most commonly violated rules are drafting, blocking, and crossing the center line of the road. To avoid a drafting penalty, stay at least three bicycle lengths behind the rider in front of you and complete any pass within fifteen seconds. If you are overtaken, you must drop back three bicycle lengths before attempting to pass. To avoid a blocking penalty, ride to the right of the road except when passing other competitors. To avoid a center line penalty, do not cross the center yellow line of the road.
Helmets with the chin strap fastened are required whenever you are on your bike. Bar end plugs are required on handlebars and aero bars; taping over the bar ends is not permitted. Head phones and music players are strictly prohibited.
ChampionChip Timing Systems
ChampionChip Timing Systems is used to time this event. A timing chip attached to a black velcro strap is provided in each competitor's race bag. The timing chip must be worn on the left ankle at all times during the race for an official race time to be recorded. Return the timing chip to a volunteer at the finish line to avoid the $30 replacement fee. Race results are posted at the race venue, and on www.firm-racing.com and www.coolrunning.com.Volunteers
Not racing, but want to be a part of this event? Then volunteer. It's a fun way to help others enjoy this sport. Volunteers receive a tech race shirt, post race food, and a sense of satisfaction from helping others. Email Wendy at firstname.lastname@example.com to volunteer.
Refund & Exchange Policy
No refunds will be made if an event is cancelled due to circumstances beyond the race director's control such as but not limited to inclement weather, unsafe racing conditions, or the decision of town administrators or safety personnel. Entries would be moved to the following year's event. Events may be changed in distance or event nature for safety or other reasons at the discretion of the race director.
All refunds requested two weeks prior to event will be honored less a $25 dollar processing fee.
Exchanges to other FIRM events will be granted up to the week before the event.
Any requests made the week of the event are not subject to refunds or exchanges.


text:
See definition in
Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary
found·ryPronunciation: /ˈfoundrē/
Definition of foundry in English:
noun ( plural foundries)
A workshop or factory for casting metal.
Example sentences
- However, there is more to manufacturing than the industries which once provided the bulk of the jobs in mills, factories and foundries.
- Created by pouring molten metal directly on the foundry's concrete floor, each panel is unique.
- There are 70 metal foundries in greater Sao Paulo, employing more than 50,000 workers.
Words that rhyme with foundry
Cowdrey • RowntreeDefinition of foundry in:
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The new Yardbarker app is here! Install on your iPhone, iPad or Android device. You can also find us in Google Newsstand.
Anderson Shelved, Driedger Up, Keep (Ham)burglaring Victories
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The Senators announced this morning that they have recalled goaltender Chris Driedger from the Evansville IceMen of the ECHL on an emergency basis because Craig Anderson has re-aggravated his hand injury.
The injury in...
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March 17, 2015
Ottawa Senators: Road Trip Decides Playoff Picture
The Ottawa Senators are going on a five game road trip over the next eight days that could very easily determine the outcome of their regular season. By this time next Thursday the Senators could be anywhere from the eight seed in the Eastern Conference, to 15 points out of a playoff spot, and almost certainly making early May vacation plans. It all depends on the next five games...
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February 25, 2015
Senators Plug Goaltending Hole Internally, Promote Chris Driedger
Once all of the *******, I hope Lehner and MacArthur are okay," well wishes were made in the aftermath of last night's dangerous collision involving Clarke MacArthur and Robin Lehner, the focus of the event shifted towards wondering how the Senators would or could respond to Lehner's injury.
With Craig Anderson already on the shelf with a bruised hand injury that is preventing...
Via The 6th Sens
February 17, 2015
Karlsson Nominated for the Masterton Trophy and Sens Sign Driedger, Dzingel to ELCs
To the surprise of no one, the Ottawa chapter of the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) nominated Erik Karlsson as the Ottawa Senators' nominee for the Bill Masterton Trophy.
The Masterton is awarded each year to the player who "best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey."
Erik Karlsson's story is not new nor should...
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text: DISCOGRAPHY Releases SADO-NATION 7" (Trap, 1980) WE'RE NOT EQUAL LP (Brainstem, 1982) THE TEAL PROJECT CD (Cordical Music, 2002) Compilations 10-29-79 LP (Trap, 1980) "Johnny Paranoid" THE SOUND OF HOLLYWOOD #3: COPULATION LP (Mystic, 1984) "Fear of Failure" COVERS LP (Mystic, 1985) "Back In The Saddle" WE GOT POWER #2: PARTY ANIMAL LP (Mystic, 1985) "Front Toy Chaos" ALL FOR ONE... ONE FOR ALL CD (GTA, 1995) INFO Sado-Nation Official Website The band's official site run by Mish Bondage. Has both old and current info, as well as photos, lyrics, etc. Sado-Nation Webpage on IUMA This webpage has much of the same content as the official site, but includes a few sounds files. |


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Hillside villa Eclipse with ocean views, heated pool, fitness room & daily maid
From $1,214 / night
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Description from the manager
- 6 bedrooms
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- Sleeps 12
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Bedrooms: 6
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Hillside villa Eclipse with ocean views, heated pool, fitness room & daily maidDescription from the manager
Nestled in the Vitet hillside with views of the ocean and Tortue island, this spacious home is one of our most unique St. Barts vacation rentals. This Caribbean island has a reputation for being a go-to destination by the rich and famous thanks to its unspoiled white sandy beaches, designer boutiques and prestigious atmosphere.
The centerpiece of the back terrace is the large, heated pool that sits below multiple, white contemporary arcs. A row of lounge chairs face the pool and are a perfect spot to sip on a cool drink and soak in the sun in private. This space also features a shaded outdoor living room with plush sofas and views of the water. ...Read more
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Offers two approaches to implementing ecommerce functionality in Dreamweaver: adding a shopping cart to an existing site or building a stand-alone solution with PHP and MySQL.
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End Of An Era: Age Of Empires Online Ceasing Updates
This rather unfortunate bomb dropped last week while each member of the RPS team was still out colonizing a different region of space, but I think it certainly bears mentioning. Age of Empires Online, sadly, is history. Or at least, the part where it continues to actively grow and evolve is now another footnote in the series' lengthy legacy. The free-to-play revamp of the storied RTS series isn't headed for the more contemplative region of Valhalla just yet, but ' from now on ' what you see is what you get. No more new content. (moreâ?¦) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/Rock...?d=nQ_hWtDbxek http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/Rock...?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/RockP...~4/hQbBPDPDcOE More... |
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Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
If you placed an order on ApplianceHelp.com the order is still valid and you can check on its status and make changes here on PartSelect.com. Click here for more details.
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Replaced both the drive belt and pump belt in less than 10 minutes. Maytag has the easiest machines to work on.
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What Changed the FCC Chairman's Mind? By Patrick Maines on March 3, 2015 Posted in Broadband, Cable TV, Digital technology, FCC, Media Regulation, Network Neutrality, Uncategorized On the occasion last week of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)'s passage of "net neutrality" regulations, Tom Wheeler, chairman of the Commission, announced that it was "the proudest day of my public policy life." It's not known whether that statement is a reflection of how little Wheeler feels he's accomplished in life, or an embarrassing… Continue Reading
If It Walks Like a Duck…. By Patrick Maines on December 23, 2013 Posted in Cable TV, Free speech With respect to matters of free speech, political correctness comes with a smile on its face but jackboots on its feet.… Continue Reading
'Breaking Bad' Elevated Television By Patrick Maines on September 30, 2013 Posted in Art Appreciation, Broadcast Indecency, Broadcast violence, Cable TV, Content Controls, Media Regulation If you've been out of the country for the past six years, you have an excuse for being unfamiliar with Breaking Bad, perhaps the best show that's ever been on television.… Continue Reading
After Aurora, Questioning Violent Programming (Again) By Patrick Maines on July 31, 2012 Posted in Art Appreciation, Broadcast violence, Cable TV, First Amendment, Free speech Very few columnists write as well, or as powerfully, as Peggy Noonan, and her piece last week in the Wall Street Journal titled "The Dark Night Rises" is no exception. As with so many of Noonan's commentaries, the strength in her column is not just in her way with words but in the fact that… Continue Reading
D.C. Circuit's 'Net Neutrality' Decision By Patrick Maines on April 6, 2010 Posted in Broadband, Cable TV, FCC, Media jurisprudence, Media Regulation, Network Neutrality The D.C. Circuit Court's decision, while obviously correct, will not slake the thirst of anyone looking for intellectual arguments for or against the FCC's proposed regulation of the ISPs' network-management practices. Because the court ruled that the FCC lacked the "ancillary" authority it asserted, the body of the decision amounts to little more than a… Continue Reading
A Unitary First Amendment – Redux By Guest Author on September 14, 2009 Posted in Broadcasting, Cable TV, Campaign Finance, FCC, First Amendment, Media jurisprudence, Media Legislation, Media Regulation, Public Interest Standard, Satellite Communications By guest blogger LAURENCE H. WINER, Professor of Law and Faculty Fellow, Center for Law, Science & Technology, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University, Tempe, Ariz. "[W]e don't put our First Amendment rights in the hands of [government] bureaucrats." What an extraordinary statement for the Chief Justice of the United States to… Continue Reading
The Big, Uneventful Day By Richard T. Kaplar on June 12, 2009 Posted in Broadcasting, Cable TV, Digital technology, FCC, Satellite Communications A blog about media and communications policy would be remiss if it did not mark the fact that this is a watershed date in television history – even if nothing much seems out of the ordinary. This, after all, is June 12, the date years in the making on which television broadcasters are converting their… Continue Reading
Time Warner Cable and Consumption-Based Billing By Patrick Maines on April 20, 2009 Posted in Broadband, Cable TV Time Warner Cable has had quite a bumpy ride for the past couple weeks. Having announced earlier a plan to conduct trials of a consumption-based billing policy, in which users would be charged based on the amount of data they download and upload, by week's end the company was obliged to suspend the trials altogether.… Continue Reading
A Unitary First Amendment By Guest Author on March 30, 2009 Posted in Broadcasting, Cable TV, Campaign Finance, First Amendment, Media jurisprudence, Satellite Communications By guest blogger LAURENCE H. WINER, Professor of Law and Faculty Fellow, Center for Law, Science & Technology, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University, Tempe, Ariz. In last week's Supreme Court oral argument of the "Hillary: the Movie" case, Citizens United v. F.E.C., the government attorney apparently perplexed several of the… Continue Reading
Digital Copyright Questions Deserve Answers By Richard T. Kaplar on November 19, 2008 Posted in Cable TV, Copyright, Digital technology, New Media The U.S. Supreme Court has an opportunity to chart a clearer course for copyright protection in the digital age if it agrees to hear a case from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. The matter involves a video-on-demand service offered by Cablevision Systems, and allegations by Cable News Network that the service… Continue Reading


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date city state venue 02/22/2014 Odense 042 Posten Surfact Tour Dates 2013
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tnial.mil.id(visit site) W E B - S I T E T N I A L. | 0 trailers |
Social Media Analysis
Tnial.mil.id has over 121 followers on popular social networking platforms such as Facebook. It has been bookmarked over 3 times across major social bookmarking services such as Delicious. Tnial.mil.id has been mentioned at least 1 times throughout top social news destinations such as Google News. Over 5 discussions are happening around tnial.mil.id on the web.
Networking121 twitter followers 0 facebook likes 8 myspace results 0 bebo results |
Bookmarking3 delicious bookmarks 0 bibsonomy bookmarks 0 folkd bookmarks |
Media0 youtube videos 0 flickr pictures 0 dailymotion videos |
News0 google stories 0 yahoo stories 0 digg submissions 0 reddit submissions 0 topix stories 1 topsy mentions |
Other0 yahoo questions 0 google groups 5 wikipedia articles 0 livejournal entries |
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SEO Analysis
Tnial.mil.id has an average of 141 pages indexed in major search engines like Google, Yahoo and Bing. There are an average of 0 links pointing back to tnial.mil.id from other websites around the world. There are a total of 0 listings about tnial.mil.id in DMOZ (0 categories) and Yahoo! Directory.
Indexed Pages0 google pages 0 yahoo pages 423 bing pages |
Backlinks0 google backlinks 0 yahoo backlinks 1 bing backlinks 102 alexa backlinks 5/10 google pagerank |
Last CrawledNot available Jul 19, 2011 (12:00 AM UTC) Not available |
Directories0 dmoz listings 0 yahoo listings |
OtherNot available Not available |
DMOZ CategoriesDMOZ categories for tnial.mil.id are not available. |
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Visitor Analysis
Every month, 0 unique visitors visit tnial.mil.id, each of whom come back to the site 0.0 times. Majority of them (99.1%) come from the Indonesia region and 0 have subscribed via RSS.
Visitors0 compete visitors 0 quantcast visitors |
Visits0 compete visits 0 quantcast visits |
Pageviews85,688 pageviews |
Syndication0 rss subscribers |
Visitor CountriesIndonesia 99.1% |
Traffic Analysis
On average, tnial.mil.id is ranked #175,241 across major traffic ranking services such as Alexa and Compete. This metric shows the popularity of tnial.mil.id compared to other sites around the web.
Traffic Ranks#525,724 alexa rank #0 compete rank #0 quantcast rank Blog Rank#0 technorati rank |
Rank Trend |
Visitor Trend |
Bounce Trend |
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Revenue Analysis
Tnial.mil.id has the potential to earn $1,901 USD in advertisement revenue per year. If the site was up for sale, it would be worth approximately $3,422 USD.
Revenue$5 USD per day $158 USD per month $1,901 USD per year |
Worth$3,422 USD |
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Content Analysis
Tnial.mil.id's home page is 274260 bytes in size. It has 44 in total (61% have "alt" attribute). Out of the 539 unique keywords found on tnial.mil.id, "admin tnial" was the most dense.
W E B S I T E - T N I A L > Home
Meta DescriptionMeta Keywords |
Page Size274.26 KB Images6 JPG, 24 GIF, 2 PNG 27 alt tags, 0 title tags 42 internal, 2 external 44 total |
Keyword Densityadmin tnial 1.86% tanjungpinang 1.11% latihan 0.93% komando 0.93% angkatan laut 0.93% lantamal situs lantamal 0.93% situs lantamal situs 0.93% wing udara 0.74% medis udara 0.56% tni situs tni 0.56% |
Link Analysis
The home page of tnial.mil.id links to 69 web pages, 13 of which point to external sites (e.g. marinir.mil.id). The page also consists of 51 anchor texts of which 0 are nofollow.
Internal56 follow, 0 nofollow 39 anchor tags, 2 title tags 56 total |
Outbound13 follow, 0 nofollow 13 anchor tags, 0 title tags 13 total |
Anchor Texts
Outbound Domains
Hosting Analysis
The primary web hosting server where tnial.mil.id is hosted resolves to the IP address 22.214.171.124 and is located at Jakarta, Jakarta Raya, Indonesia.
IP Address220.127.116.11 IP Decimal (Long)1986087720 Reverse IP40.subnet118-97-75.static.astinet.telkom.net.id Server LocationJakarta, Jakarta Raya Indonesia () -6.1744 (lat) / 106.829 (long) Hosting CompanyAsia Pacific Network Information Centre PO Box 2131 Milton, QLD (4064) Australia |
Server Analysis
On average, tnial.mil.id web pages load in 1857 milliseconds. The site uses about 0 different types of web software that we know of and consists of about 22% JavaScript code.
Software UsedNot available |
Languages Used
Page Speed1.857 seconds |
Color Analysis
The top colors used in tnial.mil.id's web template color pallete are charcoal grey, black, charcoal, dark, dark grey. Typically, lighter colored websites are more trustworthy and easier to use.
Charcoal Grey
Charcoal Grey
Dark Grey
WHOIS Analysis
WHOIS information for tnial.mil.id is unavailable.
DNS Record Analysis
Tnial.mil.id has 1 address (A) records, 1 name server (NS) records, 1 start of authority (SOA) records, 0 mail exchanger (MX) records and 0 text (TXT) records in its domain name system (DNS).
Host | Class | Type | IP | TTL | Target | Other |
tnial.mil.id | IN | A | 220.127.116.11 | 543876 | ||
tnial.mil.id | IN | NS | 604796 | ns.tnial.mil.id | ||
tnial.mil.id | IN | SOA | 604800 | mname: ns.tnial.mil.id rname: watmob.tnial.mil.id serial: 2011062901 refresh: 604800 retry: 86400 expire: 2419200 minimum-ttl: 604800 |
HTTP Header Analysis
HTTP header reponses show how tnial.mil.id responds to incoming Hyper Text Transfer Protocol (HTTP) requests from connecting clients (e.g. web browsers).
HTTP headers are unavailable.
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Dr. Alexander A. Soukas, MD
Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism
- 50 Staniford St Ste 340
Boston, MA 02114 - 1 Location
- (617) 726-8722
Dr. Alexander A. Soukas graduated from the Cornell University Weill Medical College in 2003. He works in Boston, MA and specializes in Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism and Diabetology. Dr. Soukas is affiliated with Massachusetts General Hospital and Newton-Wellesley Hospital. He speaks English and Spanish.
Gender: Male
Languages Spoken: English, Spanish
Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism, Diabetology
Medical School: Cornell University Weill Medical College; Graduated 2003
50 Staniford St Ste 340
Boston, MA 02114
(617) 726-8722


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Google authorship may not be dead after all By Kevin O'Keefe on September 18, 2014 in Blogging, Google+, Guest Authors Following Google's announcement that they would no longer be displaying authors in search results we all thought Google authorship was dead. Me included. Internet marketing strategist, Pam Aungst (@PamAnnMarketing) writes this week that Authorship may not be dead after all. As way of background, Google Authorship enabled blog authors to connect the blog posts they … Continue Reading
Google authorship eliminated By Kevin O'Keefe on August 28, 2014 in Blogging, Google+, Publishing In a post by John Mueller (@JohnMu) a Webmaster Trends Analyst at Google, Google announced it was eliminating Google Authorship. If you have any doubt about Authorship being eliminated in entirety, read the discussion in the comments to Mueller's post. Google Authorship enabled blog authors to connect the blog posts they published to their Google+ … Continue Reading
Four reasons Google+ is important for blogging lawyers By Kevin O'Keefe on February 17, 2014 in Google+ Google+ is apt to be written off as a social media ghost town by blogging lawyers. Who could blame them looking at the numbers alone. From New York Times technology reporter, Claire Cain Miller (@clairecm), in a piece on Google+ last Friday. Plus has 29 million unique monthly users on its website and 41 million on … Continue Reading
3 more reasons law bloggers should use Google+ By Kevin O'Keefe on October 2, 2013 in Google+ Technology writer, Sohail Qaisar, wrapping up a piece on the debate between Google's Matt Cutts and Rand Fishkin's Moz.com on the impact of Google+ on search shared three good reasons bloggers ought to be using Google+. Here's the three, with a little annotating by me. Faster post indexing. Google+ is used by Google to discover … Continue Reading
Six tips for lawyers new to Google+ By Kevin O'Keefe on August 28, 2013 in Google+ I am starting to see items I share and discuss on Google+ rank higher in Google search than my blog posts in which I discuss the same matter. Perhaps that's Google's goal in driving the growth of what is now the second largest social network, trailing only Facebook. I acknowledge Google+ is new and represents … Continue Reading
What does your Google+ profile page say about you? By Kevin O'Keefe on July 20, 2013 in Google+ I know, you already feel guilty about your LinkedIn profile page which grades out as a C minus. But Google+ is getting to be a big deal, and like it your not your Google+ profile is appearing in search results when someone Googles you. What does yours Google+ profile say about you? Google+ is not … Continue Reading
Google+ at 2 years old: Where are we? By Kevin O'Keefe on July 2, 2013 in Google+ Two years ago last Friday Google introduced its social network, Google+. Mashable's Christina Warren (@film_girl) provides a good assessment of Google+ at two years in saying it's gone from "Facebook killer to ghost town to something else" Make no mistake, however, two years in, Google+ is most definitely a social network. There are more than 500 … Continue Reading
Google Authorship a big plus for blogging lawyers By Kevin O'Keefe on March 30, 2013 in Google+ Google+'s Google Authorship feature allows you to link connect you publish on the Internet to your Google+ profile. The concept of linking content and peoples' reaction to your contact (sharing) is perfect for lawyers. Growing your influence as a niche online publisher enhances your reputation as a trusted and reliable authority. Google Authorship grows your … Continue Reading
Google+ no longer a virtual ghost town By Kevin O'Keefe on January 27, 2013 in Google+ Google+ grew 27% last month to 343-million active users. Per Steven Vaughan-Nichols (@sjvn) of ZDNet, Facebook is still the top social network by a wide margin, but Google+ has moved into second place among Internet users globally. Citing a GlobalWebIndex study, Vaughan-Nichols reports Facebook has almost 700-million active users. The research group defines active users … Continue Reading
Is your law firm using Google+? It ought to be. By Kevin O'Keefe on January 3, 2013 in Google+ Is your law firm taking Google+ lightly? You could be making a mistake. Look at the Google+ stats that Jane Susskind (@JaneSusskind), Director of Social Media at Creative Round, pulled from pulled from Brian Honigman's (@BrianHonigman) "2012 Social Media Statistics and Figures." 625,000 people join Google+ every day. Those who use Google+, use it a … Continue Reading


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All of our oak beams, are worked by hand to give you the best looking Oak Mantle, Shelf, Fireplace etc possible, Many finnishes are avialable.We Stock Air Dried and Green Oak beams for use as shelves, mantles, lintels, beams etc. Green oak is freshly cut and has a higher moisture content than Air Dried.
You will find with green oak that over time natural surface grain cracks develop as it dries, whereas with the air dried these are already visible.
Our Solid Air Dried French Oak beams and boards have been naturally seasoned/dried for up to 10 years in France, giving them full character and very stable to use indoors as mantles above log burners etc, as well as lintels and structural support beams, as with all natural timber products there is the possibilty that these may move slightly, we do advise that if putting above a log burner etc that they are acclimatized slowly .
Our craftsmen take great pride in individualy picking out the best beams and working them by hand to the highest of standards to give a totally unique and warming piece that will be the focal point of any room.
These beams are also suitable for external use.
Celtic Timber..........The natural choice
The above pictures give a good representation of the three finishes we offer.
Sawn - Is how the beams come into us. These can be belt sanded or left for the natural rustic look.
Planed - After the beam has been planed, it brings it back to its natural light oak colour, and also straightens out any natural curves etc. This is ideal if going up against a wall.
Planed and Sanded - After planing we sand the beams to a superior finish. At this stage we can shape the beam to your choice by giving it a natural wane edge look or it can be left square. We round off all corners and sharp edges so the beam is ready to be waxed/oiled or stained when it gets to you.
If you choose the size section beam you would like from the sizes below, you will then get taken to a page where you can choose the length and finish.
Viewing all Oak Beam Fireplaces, Shelves and Mantles


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MLive.com Business Center
Michigan Business news, local business resources, events & more
- Republicans pummel Hillary Clinton's past but neglect to show why the GOP is better 6:33 AM
- Ann Arbor tech company expands into new downtown office 7:23 AM
- Sluggish incomes and government mistrust may torpedo Proposal 1 6:18 AM
- Michigan title company expands into Indiana 5:19 AM
- Carbon costs Michigan citizens who can least afford it, report says 7:45 AM
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- General Motors CEO Mary Barra: Detroit bankruptcy decision is 'a validation for everyone' committed to the city DETROIT, MI -- General Motors CEO Mary Barra, a 52-year-old Metro Detroit native, made it clear Friday afternoon where she stands on the city's historic bankruptcy ruling made by Judge Steven Rhodes.
Renegade 'Millennials' targeted in new Jeep ad campaign
First Cadillac CT6 to be auctioned off for Detroit's Karmanos Cancer Institute
- Service that matches disabled people with jobs to be hit with layoffs The layoffs impact the entire staff of Employment Service Interviewers, who work with small businesses and organizations to employ people with disabilities.
First of its kind Holiday Inn Express in Alpena gets state approval for brownfield incentives
340-job Magna plant opens; General Motors supplier's new plant to bring almost 300 jobs to Lansing area
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Search Underway in Connection With Missing Woman; Husband Found Dead
Updated: 03/04/2014 - The Washoe County Sheriff's Office is looking for a woman missing for as much as two weeks.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - The Washoe County Sheriff's Office is looking for a woman missing for as much as two weeks.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - These days there is a lot of talk about reining in health care costs. But does reining in costs necessarily mean lowering quality care? One concept called "Centering Pregnancy" may ultimately prove the opposite.
Posted: 03/04/2014 - Reno firefighters have extinguished a small brush fire in west Reno.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - A teenage boy has been arrested and has confessed to weekend graffiti in Carson City.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - Weather watchers in the Sierra Nevada say they need a "Miracle March" to recover from an abysmal winter that's produced only one-third of the normal snowpack.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - If you had to change careers mid-stream, do you know what you would do? One Gardnerville man found himself in that situation after unexpectedly losing his sight. He went from training horses to making a good cup of Joe, and "Blind Dog Coffee" was born.
Posted: 03/03/2014 - An inmate serving up to two consecutive life terms for sexual assault has died at a Nevada prison infirmary.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - Next of kin have been notified of the death of a U.S. military pilot killed in a fighter jet crash during a Nevada training exercise, but the victim's name is being withheld pending a formal announcement by the pilot's parent command.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - One man is dead after a crash on State Route 208 in Douglas County.
Updated: 03/04/2014 - The filing period for candidates for public office began with a line at the Washoe County Registrar of Voters office Monday morning.
Posted: 03/03/2014 - The Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles is testing out a new system aimed at cutting frustratingly long lines.
Posted: 03/03/2014 - A Sparks woman has been arrested for allegedly pointing a gun at a family member.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - Sparks police have arrested four people allegedly behind a credit card forgery ring.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - The Navy said Sunday night that the military pilot was killed when a fighter jet crashed during a training exercise in western Nevada a day earlier.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - They made a name for themselves here in Reno as "Gary & Sandy". Now these popular performers are headed to Hollywood for their first nationally televised performance. Gary Raffanelli took a chance on reviving the music of the band ABBA in a tribute show.
Updated: 03/03/2014 - Sunday night, March 9, ABC will air a program it's very excited about. Called "Resurrection," it follows the story of various fictional families who are allowed to re-connect with loved ones who have died. The desire to make such contact is not uncommon.
Posted: 03/02/2014 - There's a whole lot of shakin' going on at the University of Nevada, Reno.
Posted: 03/02/2014 - Squaw Valley is planning a special celebration March 21 to honor more than a dozen U.S. Olympians from the Reno-Lake Tahoe area who competed in the Winter Games in Sochi, including three who brought home gold.
Posted: 03/02/2014 - Candidates for Nevada political offices have been raising money and campaigning for months but the 2014 election cycle is about to kick into higher gear.
Posted: 03/01/2014 - A string of storms has allowed some ski resorts in the Sierra Nevada to finally open all of their terrain, but others still need more snow before they can fully open after an unusually dry winter.
Posted: 03/01/2014 - Divisions in Nevada's approach to sage grouse have resurfaced in the state's attempt to keep the bird off the list of endangered species and avoid economic consequences for ranching, mining and alternative energy development.
Posted: 03/01/2014 - A county manager in Nevada has accepted the position of Lane County, Ore., administrator.
Updated: 03/01/2014 - Power has now been restored to 2,300 NV Energy customers who were without power for several hours.
Updated: 03/01/2014 - Sparks police say speeding and weather were the factors in a rollover that caused a power outage Saturday morning.
Posted: 03/01/2014 - The two dogs and their handlers have been training for the last 5 weeks.


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I don't know how many of you are familar with what happened with Gil Amelio as the CEO that almost killed Apple.In a nutshell, Jobs and Amelio were both high ups at Apple. Jobs and Amelio were in some sort of scuffle that had to be decided by the Board of Directors. They sided with Amelio and fired Jobs. When Amelio was CEO he signed the deal with Microsoft (giving them access to all their patents which, bit Apple int he Ass years later in a legal battle). As the Apple ship started to sink the Board of Directors realized how terribly wrong they were in firing Jobs so, they bought NeXT (Jobs' new company) to get him back on board and save the company.
Anyone else thing Gamespot is doing the same thing? Jeff was what made Gamespot good, they suck and have ever since they got rid of him. It seems like either they want him back, or their legal embargo is up from the 2007 scandal. Take it for what you will.


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Longer trips next year have Science Hill crunching numbers.
CommentsThe former speedy Science Hill receiver/center fielder has spent the past two years getting to see the world by letting the world see him.
CommentsIt hasn't been the year of the upset in high school football, that's for sure. More so than any season in many years, favorites have won a higher percentage of the games.
CommentsIncludes Markus Olds, Ethan Thomas, Logan Birchfield, Jordan Grubb, Warren Kerley, Rico Ortega
CommentsAustin Linton scored on a 6-yard run with 3:39 left to lift visiting Tri-Cities Christian to a 17-14 victory over Unaka in a nonconference high school football game.
CommentsTrey Sutton carried five times for 70 yards and two touchdowns and had five tackles for loss while helping Science Hill bolt to a 42-0 halftime lead in a 56-0 victory against Volunteer at Kermit Tipton Stadium.
CommentsSenior running back Phillip Garland, freshman quarterback Brayden Sams and the rest of the Happy Valley Warriors had the breakout game they've been looking for all season Friday night.
CommentsOffensive consistency has been Elizabethton's calling card all season, and Friday night the defense showed signs of catching up. In a 42-13 victory over Johnson County, the Cyclones gave up some yardage but also made some good stops at key times.
CommentsCoach John Allen remains a teacher of economics and personal finance at Powell High School.
CommentsIn an epic battle between the two titans of Northeast Tennessee girls soccer, it came down to the perfect time for a perfect play.


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Did you know?
Did you know that you can create an account to record, track and share your climbing ascents? Thousands of climbers are already doing this.
Access issues inherited from Table Mountain
Access at Table Mountain can be tenuous, with easements providing limited access along private property. Make sure to check the Access Fund (http://status.accessfund.org/) for current restrictions, and always be respectful of the property owners.
This cliff doesn't have any sub-areas or routes yet!
If you are familiar with this cliff please take the time to add what you know. Thanks!
If you login then you can add areas and/or routes.