text:
I'll See You In September
Is the political crisis in Egypt on the way to resolution, or has it just moved into a new phase? When Hosni Mubarak announced he would serve to the end of his term but not leave Egypt; when he told the audience that he would not run again, with the election scheduled for September, the single question left hanging in the air was what the opposition's best alternative to accepting a Mubarak offer would be. Reuters describes the Mubarak gambit: I'll leave, but on my own terms.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said on Tuesday he would not leave Egypt although he would step down from the presidency at the end of his term, due to end when the country holds a presidential election in September. "The Hosni Mubarak who speaks to you today is proud of his achievements over the years in serving Egypt and its people," he said in an address broadcast on state television.
"This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil," he said.
They were the words of a man determined to leave office on his own terms and remain a force despite his deep unpopularity. Nicholas Kristof at the New York Times thinks the offer is too little, too late:
So President Hosni Mubarak has announced that he won't run for office again in the September elections. That would have been a historic decision if he had made it two weeks ago, and it might have avoided the present mess. But today, it's too little, too late. And if the White House has devoted its political capital to getting Mubarak to agree to such a half-measure, then I fear that there's a measure of cluelessness on both sides.
Maybe Washington is clueless, but Mubarak is not. Since the outbreak of open unrest against his regime, he has pursued a policy that looks an awful lot like a scorched earth retreat. By pulling the police out of the street, shutting down the Internet, and basically staying put, Mubarak has made the opposition face that biggest of all operational problems: the logistic challenge of sustaining an advance.
Cairo is running out of money with the ATMs down and commerce paralyzed. The poor in the Third World are not like the middle class West. In the slums they are probably running out of food, with most households left with only enough comestibles for a day or two. The Egyptian dictator has absorbed hostility with time and space. Twenty hours ago, the NYT wrote:
Egypt's economy approached paralysis on Monday as foreign commerce, tourism and banking all but halted, placing acute pressure on President Hosni Mubarak to find a way out of the weeklong chaos.
International companies closed plants and sent workers home or out of the country; food staples went undelivered to stores; and banks remained closed during a week when many Egyptians, who are routinely paid monthly, would receive their paychecks.
A major ratings agency cut the country's bond rating, while shortages led to rising prices. And poorer Egyptians told of cutting back to just two meals a day to cope.
160 Comments, 160 Threads
1. Marie Claude
Mubarak made a discourse of firmness, which means, "Kill me if you want, but I'm not gonna leaving", some kind of provocation, and Hmm a clash into Obama's latter official wishes. Dilemn for the army, so far, it was accompanying the protesters while Mubarak was supposed to dignefully leave., now, wether it'll have to fire at the mobs, wether at him !
2. Don Rodrigo
Food. So, as someone alluded to in the previous thread, Mubarak can restore some legitimacy by supplying adequate food to the Egyptian masses. The U.S. would do well to send in massive shipments of wheat and other staples, and the Egyptian Army can be the principal distributor. Or some scenario like that.
This wouldn't take the wind out of the protests, but it would give pause. I don't imagine that, despite the great numbers protesting, that most of those battling in the streets were fellaheen, the Egyptian Everyman whose first concern is feeding himself and his family.
3. A Nobody
It looks like Mubarak has created a pretty good face-saving measure all around by his September resignation announcement. The protesters can go home saying "We made him change, and now he will leave", without having to do so because they ran out of food. Mubarak gets to leave on his own schedule. The transitional government gets enough time to be legitimate and not look like chumps in the run-up to new elections.
Everyone gets to be a winner (some more than others), and we all get some breathing space to establish a more reasonable change in government. The chief danger in a rapid collapse is who fills the vacuum. Buying time may be what Egypt and the rest of the world needs.February 1, 2011 - 2:42 pm Link to this Comment
4. Blast From the Past
Why does el-Baredi aspire to be a Naguib? He lacks the moral stature of a Bahktiar, let alone a Kerensky. If the measure of a man is his attracting the right enemies then who can look better than Mubarek?February 1, 2011 - 2:47 pm Link to this Comment
5. stephen
A credible and interesting take on recent events courtesy of Clarice Feldman at American Thinker:
Sounds as though those of us on outside will only perceive a simmer at least for foreseeable future. That is unless Syria heads down same road:
http://tinyurl.com/4cr7gw6February 1, 2011 - 2:49 pm Link to this Comment
6. Eggplant
Mubarak is handing his opponents a face saving fig leaf. Arabs in general and Egyptians in particular have an amazing contempt for the truth. Almost all Egyptians will assume that Mubarak is lying.
What Mubarak is really saying:
"I'm not giving up power now but you can claim victory if it'll make you feel better."
After the smoke clears and the dust settles, Obama (assuming he has enough sense) must insist that Suleiman take over and Mubarak retire to exile. There needs to be a smooth transition of power if the MB is to be kept from controlling Egypt.
7. wretchard
Thanks for the links Stephen. For whatever it is worth, I made the argument back in 2006 at at conference in Israel that the Internet would be a major field of operations. In particular, I argued that the more "nodes" we created on the Internet, the more likely it was that oppressed societies would rise. I believe I urged the active seeding of sites to facilitate the process.
Read it for yourself on my December 28, 2006 post on the old Belmont Club, Blogosphere at War.
The Internet revolution has created new structures of knowing, thinking and communicating. Those features are only now being exploited. They are destined to complement many aspects of the public intelligence system known as journalism over the next decade. The blogosphere contains potentially a very large number of information collectors, which raise events which occur in the physical world above a Horizon at which they become detectable on the Internet. It has also evolved a sophisticated network of watchers and analysts whose professional competence has no preset limits; analysts who are able to separate the signal from the noise. Finally, the blogosphere has a sophisticated and evolutionary system of grading the reliability and relevance of stories; it promotes stories of interest upward until they reaches the top of the Internet hierarchy within hours. From that apex, blogospheric memes can make the jump into the mainstream media and into the legal arenas of society.
Understanding and exploiting the characteristics of blogosphere will become a key skill in any information warrior's manual of arms. Information warriors can improve the blogosphere's receptivity and performance in key areas by proactive preparation. But they should be advised. The blogosphere does not contain any preordained political or cultural bias. Structurally, however, it is extremely hostile to cant and disinformation. The political side which tells the most lies and falsehoods is likely to suffer more at its hands than one which hews more closely to the observable truth.
This was before Twitter and FB became big. But I think the conclusions are still fundamentally correct.
8. Interesting Connections
I prefer the Frank Zappa version of that song, along with the material preceding it.February 1, 2011 - 3:07 pm Link to this Comment
9. stephen
In story from Clarice's friend in Cairo, I was especially touched by image of someone explaining Facebook and Twitter to Hosni Mubarak.February 1, 2011 - 3:10 pm Link to this Comment
10. Habu
The Mubarak gambit has an opportunity to work. If it does or it doesn't is really insignificant to what comes next and that is an almost sure bet that the Muslim Brotherhood ends up in control of Egypt. Good for the West? More like an absolute disaster that we cannot avoid. Sending nasty-grams from the State Department, food from our graineries, or new shoes so they can beat statues of Mubarak a la Saddam …..Lets take just a peek…….Among the Brotherhood's more influential members was Sayyid Qutb. Qutb was the author of one of Islamism's most important books, Milestones , which called for the restoration of Islam by re-establishing the Sharia and by using "physical power and Jihad for abolishing the organizations and authorities of the Jahili system, which he believed to include the entire Muslim world, and now the entire world.
Nothing new to us , most of us knew this but weren't too concerned because few saw the developments of the past two weeks gurgling up when they did. Heck it's pushed Afghanistan and Iraq right out of the news.
So the MB gets control of the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline.
Gee whiz anyone think that will change the ME and the world?
And the sending food thing. I've been in countries where that's been done and it simply makes the generals or the warlords richer, the people still have empty stomachs and Swiss bank accounts still get filled. That's just the way it works.February 1, 2011 - 3:23 pm Link to this Comment
11. Victor
Tomorrow Mubarak should announce that he is taking a leave of absence for health reason–so he can spend more time with his family. Give him a face saving way out.
The VP Suleiman should be appointed interim President acting immediately and announce a critical path plan for achieving key goals between now and the election, US should make continued funding as contingent on executing on this plan.
Suleiman appoints PwC and/or the IMF to oversee financial diligence–the rats will leave the ship with bags of gold otherwise.
Martial law is declared for the next 3 to 12 months with clear criteria established for lifting it–to be reviewed every 90 days.
Impose strict control of the borders to stop bad guys infiltrating.
Obama needs to work behind the scene to get Turkey, KSA, Jordan and Iraq to support these measures.
The probability of civil war is P= .3 at this point and will stay at that level if the Egyptian Army takes control while the good will of the population is in their favor.
There needs to be a credible public announcement within the next 24 hours from the UN about guarantees for basic food supplies for the next 90 to 120 days.
Some one, FCC, needs to make a deal with Al Jazeera— that if they do the right thing in helping stability in Egypt then we will facilitate their access to the US TV markets in which they can compete–like anyone else
—if they screw up then the window closes
–the US can use our good offices with Qatar to make this message firm and clear.
Al Jazeera has clearly become the potential voice of the adaptive Arab world
–maybe Rupert Murdoch can make an investment and introduce some Fox News perspective.
This whole situation can turn out to further American fundamental interests
– if it is handled correctly.February 1, 2011 - 3:24 pm Link to this Comment
12. Interesting Connections
However, I think he forgets the difference between old men and young men, and the fact that Islam has achieved everything it has through War so far.February 1, 2011 - 3:31 pm Link to this Comment
13. Marie Claude
uh, another article that corroborates the NYT's
it says that Wisner "held secret meeting with Muslim Brotherhood"
http://www.westernjournalism.com/u-s-held-secret-meeting-with-muslim-brotherhood/February 1, 2011 - 4:04 pm Link to this Comment
14. Victor
For clarification–
Mubarak tomorrow can say that he stands by his statements today, but that in consultation this morning, with his physicians, he has decided to take a leave of absence–he is, in fact, dying of cancer.
Obama was ok in his statement
–the main thing was that he supported the Egyptian Army.
We cannot rely on the FB generation.
As French Premier Georges
Clemenceau (1841-1929) said:
"Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of
want of heart;
to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."
The FB generation are romantic socialists and/or communists
–the Army knows the windy corners.
"February 1, 2011 - 4:14 pm Link to this Comment
15. Josh
Well, here are the two sides.
On the one, I salute Mubarak for this position, attempting a change of government without executions or exiles. Even if the promise is hardly credible. Even if it means he goes down with the ship.
On the other side, it is not in the nature of mobs and revolutions to accept promises of any kind, credible or not.
wretchard's point is that it simply cannot go on as it is.
that does not quite decide between the two manners of proceeding. *IF* Mubarak's promise could and would be kept, it would be preferable, it seems to me. On that basis, perhaps he can attract support both internally and internationally.
Meanwhile, let's hear it for Flo and Eddie!February 1, 2011 - 4:15 pm Link to this Comment
16. Habu
Marie Claude/13
Kinda reminds me of the Cuban Missile crisis and TV personality John Scali
"At 1:00 p.m., John A. Scali of ABC News had lunch with Aleksandr Fomin at Fomin's request. Fomin noted that "war seems about to break out" and asked Scali to use his contacts to talk to his "high-level friends" at the State Department to see if the U.S. would be interested in a diplomatic solution. He suggested that the language of the deal would contain an assurance from the Soviet Union to remove the weapons under UN supervision and that Castro would publicly announce that he would not accept such weapons in the future, in exchange for a public statement by the U.S. that it would never invade Cuba. The U.S. responded by asking the Brazilian government to pass a message to Castro that the U.S. would be "unlikely to invade" if the missiles were removed.
At 6:00 p.m. the State Department started receiving a message that appeared to be written personally by Khrushchev. Robert Kennedy described the letter as "very long and emotional." Khrushchev reiterated the basic outline that had been stated to Scali earlier in the day, "I propose: we, for our part, will declare that our ships bound for Cuba are not carrying any armaments. You will declare that the United States will not invade Cuba with its troops and will not support any other forces which might intend to invade Cuba. Then the necessity of the presence of our military specialists in Cuba will disappear." At 6:45pm, news of Fomin's offer to Scali was finally heard and was interpreted as a "set up" for the arrival of Khrushchev's letter. The letter was then considered official and accurate, although it was later learned that Fomin was almost certainly operating of his own accord without official backing. Additional study of the letter was ordered and continued into the night. Canada, the NORAD ally of the United States, was not consulted in these negotiations.
Scali was contacted by Soviet embassy official (and KGB Station Chief) Aleksandr Fomin about a proposed settlement to the crisis, and subsequently he acted as a contact between Fomin and the Executive Committee; however, it was without government direction that Scali responded to new Soviet conditions with a warning that a U.S. invasion was only hours away, prompting the Soviets to settle the crisis quickly."
You just know the back channels are currently en fuego.February 1, 2011 - 4:17 pm Link to this Comment
17. allen
#10 Habu said…
And the sending food thing. I've been in countries where that's been done and it simply makes the generals or the warlords richer, the people still have empty stomachs and Swiss bank accounts still get filled. That's just the way it works.
February 1, 2011 – 3:23 pm
That is the way it works and everyone in the loop knows it. In looking at Haiti some years ago during unrest, I posited that Marines were only needed to guard the essentials (initially, mainly food and water) being brought in by ship. If the people had unfettered access, the government would topple in a day.
Food is used both as a carrot (West) and a stick (ME despots). Give the stick to those in need and watch how quickly despots get religion.February 1, 2011 - 4:24 pm Link to this Comment
18. f47
Perhaps 0bama is ready for Nixon moment?February 1, 2011 - 4:31 pm Link to this Comment
19. stoicheion
Actually, there is a way to get food directly to the hungry and cut out the middleman. Air drop. The US Air Force feed Afghanistan in the winter of '01-'02 by airdrop. They had to change the color of the MRE's because they were the same color as CBU's but that wasn't a big deal. The Egyptian Air Force would have to co-operate, but running C-130′s over Cairo and 'bombing' it with food would not be that hard. We couldn't do it for long, but a week should be enough to get things back to normal, or what passes for normal in the 3rd world.
I think the King of Jordan is the smartest of the lot. He is taking steps to share power. Jordan already has a Parliment and elected representatives, so giving them some more power gives the King someone to blame when the cart goes into the ditch. Very Smart. One hopes some of the other despots learn from this.February 1, 2011 - 4:49 pm Link to this Comment
20. lc
Interesting take by Spengler on the Egyptian situation – food is the "wheat stalk" that broke the proverbial camel's back. And blame it on the newly affluent Asians.
Some interesting stats in the article: wheat prices have doubled in the past year; coupled with a worldwide economic downturn, and mix it with a country with an economy with very little reactive capacity and it is disaster. And, it is likely to be repeated in many other near-failed states, many in the Arab/Muslim world.
Spengler's suggested solution?? Massive American infusion of grain (mentioned elsewhere here)….(I have no idea if it would work but it wouldn't hurt, I am sure) – wanna bet on whether Obama will do it?February 1, 2011 - 5:13 pm Link to this Comment
21. blert
Experience has shown that vouchers are the way to go inre suppressing food distribution corruption.
One sells food directly into the wholesale trade via normal channels.
Retail purchasers are able to purchase with currency or vouchers.
Benefactors only have to concern themselves with handing out vouchers at retail. Being just paperwork it is practical to pull off. The actual food distribution uses entirely traditional means.
Knock-off USDA food stamps can be ginned up virtually over night. The point of distribution can be handled by a combination of the Egyptian Army and Western NGOs. Inked fingers stop double dipping. No means testing is used. Vouchers to be used for critical foods including locally grown.
The process: family steps forward receives voucher books per male, female, child, baby. Hands get inked. Done. No names, registration etc.
Later, days later, those involved get biometric scans and are provided a stipulated amount periodically. Prices controls are relaxed as the government matches free markets in food with direct subsidies to the needy.
Actually plopping food down simply causes food riots. It's about the last option one might imagine because of the food loss and abuse of the weakest.
22. allen
19. stoicheion
Re: food airdrop
I would be interested in the plan that would make possible the feeding of 17,000,000 by air.
Even the infinitely more efficient use of cargo ships would not get one far in a country the size of Egypt. Rail and truck routing would be a necessity and an enormous task, assuming the Army and paramilitaries didn't skim most of the best stuff.
The allies in WWII did the impossible, but we are not they.
23. Agam Bellum
Great links stephen!
If the first account is even half accurate, we have the best example of a stand alone complex in the internet age creating political chaos. A small protest (15k) is reported to be a large one (15ok) such that later a huge protest (1million) occurs. How? The internet creates a medium that connects people without a direct or explicit connection to each other (complex). This original medium disappears and becomes irrelevant once the connection is made (stand alone). In Egypt the people have become connected by an experience that they share (Day 3 protests) but share it without the original experience (Day 1 protests) that they did not really share. This phenomenon is quite different from any other because the medium that shares the experience ensures that what is originally shared disappears. If this sounds like sci-fi, it is. Fiction has become reality, e.g. Ghost in the Shell.February 1, 2011 - 5:21 pm Link to this Comment
24. Mrs. Davis
Turn out the lights, the party's over.
They say that all good things must end.
Let's call it a night the party's over
and tomorrow starts the same old thing again.February 1, 2011 - 5:30 pm Link to this Comment
25. exhelodrvr
No way do we have the airlift capability to do that.February 1, 2011 - 5:40 pm Link to this Comment
26. Eggplant
The buffoons in the White House think there's a role for MB in the next Egyptian government, refer to:
When you sup with the Devil use a long spoon.
Obama's White House crew is so clueless…February 1, 2011 - 5:42 pm Link to this Comment
27. Marie Claude
The context was very different
the Egyptian mobs are disarmed, but nonetheless will not abandon their revendications. I have read a few Egyptian Twitterers (from mobile phone), that said that they are going to march onto the Palace next fridayFebruary 1, 2011 - 5:44 pm Link to this Comment
28. ⚢ Teresita
John McCain raised an interesting point about the wave of protests that are metastasizing across the Middle-east from Tunisia to Yemen and Lebanon to Jordan. He notes that it is not causing a ripple in Iraq, which already has a working democracy and elections. Of course the libstream media won't mention this because it's a point for W.February 1, 2011 - 5:46 pm Link to this Comment
29. Habu
Food vouchers? Would that be like food stamps? It took the 'hood about two days to figure out how to scam food stamps. And you all have notice the extremes the US has taken to protect it's currency from counterfeiting….the verticle lines, the imprints of wildlife, like a Charlie Sheen hooker? ( yeah, just hold a Grant under a blacklight!)
Well vouchers would become the best scam going in Egypt within a day, guarantee it.
Americans don't seem to realize that most of the world is Dodge City compared to even Dearborn or Detroit.
Nope, the answer is traditional ME foods like the Bedouin wedding feasts:
The largest item on any menu in the world is probably the roast camel, sometimes served at Bedouin wedding feasts. The camel is stuffed with a sheep's carcass, which is stuffed with chickens, which are stuffed with fish, which are stuffed with eggs.
Sure it's not Colonel Sanders but it is THEIR food…..don't believe it..look it up.February 1, 2011 - 5:56 pm Link to this Comment
30. Habu
" not causing a ripple in Iraq, which already has a working democracy "
….and how many US Armed Forces that just finished beating the hell out of the Iraqi Army etc…..no wonder no ripples…wait til we leave.February 1, 2011 - 6:00 pm Link to this Comment
31. Cybergeezer
I do understand Obama's lack of response, but, where has the United Nations been? Are they too busy in Haiti? Are they waiting for direction from Obama?
Any government with food and water supplies for these people would make the Obama Regime look like a third world clique.
We look and sound, like a nation of fools.February 1, 2011 - 6:02 pm Link to this Comment
32. buddy larsen
The Russian Agriculture Ministry said January 28th it approved the rules governing the sale of as much as 500,000 tons of stockpiled grain in five monthly releases starting next week.
They came in better than expected –maybe it'll take a little pressure off –February 1, 2011 - 6:04 pm Link to this Comment
33. General P. Malaise
excellent piece Richard
well ..the USA abandons another country. there is no upside to this one. Mubarak wasn't the best partner but I don't see a better one.
the USA tends to meddle badly in these cases and this is no exception.
there will not be a democratic outcome to this as much as everyone hopes. I wouldn't want to be a Copt in egypt today.
the problem with the third world countries is that the problems grow faster then the solutions. egypt is a perfect example of this.
there is no way mubarak could ever come up with a solution that would placate the muslim brotherhood and the west should give mubarak that due.February 1, 2011 - 6:08 pm Link to this Comment
34. Josh
The pomPOTUS of hope and change gave a speech on Egypt today:
also Powerline links to Byron York who quotes a Pew poll:
[A]mong other discoveries, the Pew researchers found that 84 percent of Egyptians favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion.
In another survey, Pew found that 90 percent of Egyptians say they believe in freedom of religion.
I guess that's why they walk like Egyptians.February 1, 2011 - 6:21 pm Link to this Comment
35. Forgotten Man
The only cards Mubarak has to play are food and medicine. Without US aid he can't deliver, so the only cards he has are in the US Government's hand. If the Muslim Brotherhood has a hand in the new government I think we should withhold aid. Both money and food. Let Saudi Arabia pay for their food, if they are willing. After all Saudi Arabia has money to pay for Mullahs in US prisons, let them redirect that money.February 1, 2011 - 6:24 pm Link to this Comment
36. Tcobb
A cynic might suspect that Mubarek is mainly interested in getting a truce so that (1) the people who have staged this uprising can all be identified, and (2) he can consolidate the power needed to blow them straight to Hell when the stars are right, whether or not the official time line of the truce (in his case, the end of his term of office) is over or not.
Color me cynical.February 1, 2011 - 6:32 pm Link to this Comment
37. donna quixote
I'm not a Mubarak supporter but I am very much opposed to the Muslim brotherhood. Until yesterday I had not heard anything good about the organization . Yesterday I was hearubg that it really wasn't so bad. I suspect those reports were leaked by the administration who I don't trust at all.February 1, 2011 - 6:35 pm Link to this Comment
38. Habu
If the MB gets the power which most analysts believe they will and we cut off aid etc, they will surely cut off the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline. They may do it anyway but the probability is they will blackmail the world and, an especially fragile Europe(they get a good deal of oil via the Sumed)
They will of course do this because the Great Satin and capitalism is rooted in pig offal, so they will make us pay. Then they will disrupt every country in the ME, not to mention the fact that they will have nuclear weapons and some damn fine war accoutrements.
Then they and their Islamic family will go after Israel. NEVER AGAIN.
39. proeason
Why does anybody even think Obama is interested in the situation? It doesn't affect him personally.
The best thing for him is if the crisis never ends. It consumes the news cycle. While it does, he continues with his mission ofeating away at the infrastructure of the US, with little attention paid.
He would like nothing better than to go into Nov 4, 2012 with this boil not yet lanced, or even better, with dozens of other distracting boils seemingly about to pop around the world. Then we would really need his even termperment and solid decision avoidance capabilities.
The only way to look at these situations is to understand what's in it for Obama. That informs his every action.
40. jerry
mubarak may think he has calculated a way to save himself, but his bodyguards will have to live somewhere after he is gone.
one of them will do the deed and be a hero to the people.
mubarak: brutus, how nice to see you. What's in the box?"February 1, 2011 - 7:06 pm Link to this Comment
41. tharkun
16. Habu
re: Scali was contacted by Soviet embassy official (and KGB Station Chief) Aleksandr Fomin about a proposed settlement to the crisis, and subsequently he acted as a contact between Fomin and the Executive Committee; however, it was without government direction that Scali responded to new Soviet conditions with a warning that a U.S. invasion was only hours away, prompting the Soviets to settle the crisis quickly."
You just know the back channels are currently en fuego.
The cynic in me can't help but caution, however, that we not rely overmuch on "TV personalities" or other members of the media in those back channels this time. Back in John Scali's day it was much safer to assume that media personalities were at least on "our side". These days, not so much…February 1, 2011 - 7:08 pm Link to this Comment
42. Habu
'Al-Qaida on brink of using nuclear bomb'
41. tharkun
That was an ill conceived post on my part, a bit embarassing. You are correct in your observation. I would only say that there are probably many diplomats working the problem. duh..I think it's bedtime.February 1, 2011 - 7:18 pm Link to this Comment
43. Fat Man
The Army has run Egypt since 1952. That is not going to change. Undoubtedly the American special envoy to Egypt was there to work out a face saving deal. We can assume that Mumu, has been given an all expenses trip to Cancun for a two week stay that will start in a couple of weeks. After that, Mr. Number two will be number one, but, in reality, nothing will have changed. Egypt will be run by the Army.
Egyptian history goes back more than 5000 years. During that entire time there has never been a republic, a democracy, an independent city state, or any history of non-autocratic governmental institutions. That will not be changed by these events. OTOH, Egypt was ruled by the Mamelukes, the slave soldiers of Islam from 1250 to 1517 C.E. and, from 1517 through 1798 even though there was an Ottoman pasha, the Mamelukes still ran the place. Being run by the Army is not new in Egypt.February 1, 2011 - 7:37 pm Link to this Comment
44. grrr
Suggestion: channel all food through Israel (for labeling)February 1, 2011 - 7:54 pm Link to this Comment
45. Unsk
Stephen, great post by Clarice Feldman. Points things in a completely different light.February 1, 2011 - 7:55 pm Link to this Comment
46. grrr
double comment. deletedFebruary 1, 2011 - 7:57 pm Link to this Comment
I agree with proreason that Obama only thinks and acts for himself. But I think that the Egyptian situation can act against Obama because it highlights his abominable foreign policy.
My view is that the Egyptian people have had enough of a dynastic, tribal dictatorship..and want an economy that empowers them…not a privileged government elite. That is, Egypt must move out of a tribal(two-class)political mode and into a civic or three-class mode. It must enable a middle class. That's the group of people who are in private business – small to medium businesses. This is the backbone of a robust industrial economy.
Egypt has been surviving on the Suez Canal, tourism, agriculture and..billions in aid from the US. It has totally ignored the facts that its population has exponentially increased in the last decades; and that these people cannot live within government subsidies and local small trades. The economy has to change from a statist authoritarian public economy..to one that enables private enterprise. This middle class, moreover, must be the empowered political class. That means – democracy.
Mubarak has prevented this transformation. Now, it's come to a boiling point.
Notice how peaceful the demonstrations are; how focused ..they want Mubarak out and a free democratic government that is focused on developing a proper economic infrastructure.
My fear is that Mubarak is planning to use these months to incite riots in the streets. He's planning to transform the peaceful demonstrations..into violence, by sending his thugs in among them, and promoting violence. From what I've heard, the demonstrators are very worried about just such a tactic by him.
The fears about the Muslim Brotherhood are, I think, overplayed. The agenda ought to be to, in these months, encourage secular political groups to come forward and join in the election campaigns. Make sure that the Constitution is reformed so that there are term limits…no more Mubarak style president forever.
The fact that there has never been a democracy in Egypt is irrelevant. There were not, at one time, democracies in most of the world. It was, for centuries, a tribal political mode. But the time for democracy is now. Why?
Because a democracy is not an intellectual choice. It's an organizational necessity when the population moves into the multimillions and the economy is industrial and export-focused rather than local agriculture. Why?
Because such a population size and such an economy requires flexibility and yes, risk-taking. New businesses must start up both small and medium sized; new products must be developed, people must set up new networks and markets. This requires a free and independent population – who are in charge of the legislature, and can set up regulations that enable such a dynamic economy.
A tribal economy and political system is stable. No growth, no change. And that's been the problem in Egypt; it hasn't been able to increase its economy to enable the members of that massive population increase to participate in the economy. You have the rich govt elite…and the rest of the population who have no ability to 'move up' the economic scale.
That leads to many dangers, including Islamic fundamentalism. But now, it has led to these peaceful demonstrations – and my concern is that Mubarak will try to sabotage them..and maintain power.
I hope that the army abandons him..and stays with the people..and they move into a free system.February 1, 2011 - 8:12 pm Link to this Comment
48. ⚢ Teresita
When six people died in Tucson, it was called it a "massacre". But when 300 people die in Egyptian riots, it's called a "peaceful demonstration."
Conan O'Brian's advice to Egypt: "If you want people to stay at home and do nothing, you should turn the Internet back on."
Joe Biden says he will include Cairo in his upcoming South American tour.February 1, 2011 - 8:15 pm Link to this Comment
49. Sally
I think the comment at #36 is exactly right. And 8 months is plenty of time to create the conditions necessary to keep his party in power once the September elections occur. There's so much focus on Mubarak and getting him out but he's part of a larger organization, the NDP.
Changing the guy at the top doesn't mean anything if the system itself isn't changed. And it's entirely possible that sometime this summer Mubarak will decide that his country really does need him to serve another term again and he'll steal another election. By then he will have reconsolidated his power, the people will be completely beaten down and everything will be just like it's always been.February 1, 2011 - 8:19 pm Link to this Comment
50. Storm-Rider
Josh 34: "Pew researchers found that 84 percent of Egyptians favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion. In another survey, Pew found that 90 percent of Egyptians say they believe in freedom of religion."
"Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them (insanity)… If human equality is to be forever averted; if the "high," as we have called them, are to keep their places permanently; then the prevailing mental condition must be controlled insanity." George Orwell – 1984
The insanity of doublethink exists in both Marxist Oceania and the Islamic Caliphate (formerly known as Eurasia).February 1, 2011 - 8:42 pm Link to this Comment
Storm-rider #50 – I've noticed that PEW data is filled with contradictory statements. I therefore wonder about their methodology – what were the questions, the demographics of the respondents (rural/urban, age, profession, etc)..
I saw one PEW report that has, in Egypt, only 48% saying that Islam has a large role in politics. Then, to the question on Islam's influence in politics – they come up with 85% saying it is positive. That's a contradiction.
How about in Pakistan, 61% identify themselves as pro modernization and only 28% with fundamentalists. Hmm. The action on the ground contradicts that.
And in Egypt, only 27% identify themselves with modernization, and 59% with fundamentalists. Again – this seems to contradict reality.
I think the problem is with PEW research methods.February 1, 2011 - 8:49 pm Link to this Comment
52. Tcobb
Mark Twain once said that there were three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
He was wrong. There are four kinds. All that he described and opinion polls.
53. Insufficiently Sensitive
Notice how peaceful the demonstrations are; how focused ..they want Mubarak out and a free democratic government that is focused on developing a proper economic infrastructure.
Uh, I wish my crystal ball were that clear and unbothered, but the Duranty channel just isn't available this week.
54. alex
Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.
As long as foreign Aid is focused on purchasing military hardware instead of life staples…the foundation for unrest will not change.February 1, 2011 - 9:09 pm Link to this Comment
55. Terry Gain
I can't believe I forgot about Obama telling Ahmadinejad to step aside during the massive protest in Iran in 2009. Perhaps someone might be kind enough to post a link. I'm sure it must have happened or more someone would be pointing out this rather bizarre difference in approach.February 1, 2011 - 9:33 pm Link to this Comment
56. sf
A prediction: When the dust settles,
—a. The MB will be running things, but quietly, so that whoever the nominal figurehead is can "make a deal" with the Obamaites for the U.S. to continue giving money and arms to the new government on the order of the current $3 billion or so per year;
—b. Obama will agree, and as a result the U.S. will wind up supplying the MB with $3B per year in food and arms to use as it wishes.
—c. Obama and the Dems will trumpet this state of affairs as a great diplomatic coup, made possible entirely because of Obama's strategic vision, his understanding of the Muslim world; and the respect Muslims have for his unique style;
—d. the U.S. media will support this version, with not a single dissenting voice, since to do otherwise would undermine their darling;
—e. Future Republican presidents will be unable to stop funneling $3 billion per year to the MB because the Left will portray such an effort as an attempt to starve poor innocent Egyptian children.
Shall we watch and see?February 1, 2011 - 9:42 pm Link to this Comment
57. Barry Meislin
but, where has the United Nations been?
Doing their darnedest to create just another failed Arab state.February 1, 2011 - 9:44 pm Link to this Comment
Suez is an old wound with a thin scar, the blocking of Suez may constitute a casus belli, the MB wouldn't want to go that farFebruary 1, 2011 - 10:01 pm Link to this Comment
59. stoicheion
"Actually plopping food down simply causes food riots. It's about the last option one might imagine because of the food loss and abuse of the weakest."
Blert, I apologize for not being clearer. I'm going to blame the pain killers. I twisted my ankle and it looks like a cantalope with toes. Gauva fruit?
Anyway, a C-130 holds 17,000 MRE's.
Send 100 over and you have your 17 million. Ever NATO country uses C-130′s. Egypt uses C-130′s. There would be no riots, since the air drops would be spread out so that crowds would not form. Terminal velocity is low. Think leaf, not brick. No crate with parachute.
The real bottleneck would be production. They would have to go to 3 shifts. Or not, since EVERY military uses some type of MRE. You could pay for it with military credits from Egypt. Somebody would have to organize it. Hillery couldn't, since it would take her away from her day job of imitating a hat rack. She doesn't do it very well, but hey, isn't she a Vasser gyrl?February 2, 2011 - 2:24 am Link to this Comment
60. stoicheion
Can we do a poll on which despot is next to fall? Yeman is already gone. Syria would be nice. Will Iran try again?February 2, 2011 - 3:04 am Link to this Comment
61. Estragon
The problem isn't that Egypt is out of food. The problem is the unrest has caused the distribution chain to shut down. Clear the streets and the banks and stores will reopen and food deliveries resume as normal.
This is Mubarak throwing down the gauntlet to the radicals in the demonstrations. They have to either end the demonstrations or figure out how to feed their foot soldiers.
The point is well made by Fernandez: between Obama and Mubarak, only one is clueless.February 2, 2011 - 3:37 am Link to this Comment
62. ⚢ Teresita
The Internet has been restored in Egypt. Having supported Mubarak for three decades America is despised in Egypt and can't do anything about the crisis.
Nevertheless, Obama says Mubarak must begin his transition now, but ignores the Judicial Death Panel verdict that ObamaCare™ is unconstitutional. And do you remember the last time Obama gave a speech urging Muslims to stop the suicide bombings in Pakistan and elsewhere? Me neither.February 2, 2011 - 4:15 am Link to this Comment
63. Fartacus
You talk about democracy for Egypt! That will never happen when the clerics and imams start preaching how democracy is not compatable with islam. Islamism and the islamists will take over the government in Egypt, PERIOD. We are all familiar with the goals of the Muslim Brotherhood, so I don't have to reiterate on that point.
No way in hell will Egypt establish a democracy, expect in name only. And that will be to appease the Americans so we continue giving them US Aid.
Six months from now no one will be surprised that a Islamic theocracy is formed or a new government based on Islamic doctrine. And will we all know what that means. It will be part of the Islamic Revolution. Oh, and if the Egyptian people want to do otherwise and actually form a democracy, that's when the suicide bombers will start blowing themselves up in the name of islam and their god allah. Just like AQ did in IRAQ before the first elections in that country.February 2, 2011 - 4:27 am Link to this Comment
64. Habu
but, where has the United Nations been?
Touring Cairo in South America with Biden.
Had to steal it Ms. T , it was too darn good!February 2, 2011 - 4:56 am Link to this Comment
65. Habu
From The American Thinker.
"What is most frightening is that my researchers and I have conducted research at over 250 Islamic centers in America. The vast majority desire to destroy America , yet our House, Senate, president, and senior law enforcement officials give them the opportunity to harm our country and children."
Deport all Muslim non American citizens and bar any from entering.February 2, 2011 - 5:05 am Link to this Comment
66. stoicheion
correction 1,000 C-139′s would be needed. That would be very difficult, Not from lack of aircraft but a shortage of runways. Commercial air would have to shut down. Egypt's neighbors won't do that.
Meanwhile, I think Stephens poaster is correct. A people that really believe that Israel put Jewish sharks in the Red Sea to attack Egypt's tourist trade are not ready for democracy…. Sounds like the same sort of moron that voted for Barky. Right now, either the military re-takes power or Barky will be known as the President that lost Egypt. How do you suppose that will play in 2012?
We need to root for the MB. Sending Barky back to Chicago to work as Emmanual's aide is more important then anything that happens in Egypt.
"Around 2.4m barrels of oil are shipped through the canal each day while the SuMed pipeline carries 2.5m a day. That's around 5.5% of world output, according to the latest official forecasts.."
5.5% That is not a fatal number. Plus modern super tankers are too big to use the canal.February 2, 2011 - 5:22 am Link to this Comment
67. novanglus
Anyone else been following the Lahore exploits of American Raymond Davis? Thoughts?
Is this part of a larger operation in Pakistan – and if so what? Or was this some kind of freelance operation? It's rare that these kinds of things ever get in the media like this.February 2, 2011 - 5:28 am Link to this Comment
Consider the "people in the streets" demonstrations we have seen lately around the world and how different they are. All are anti-government but in radically different ways.
In Europe people protest because their governments threaten to cut off the goodies they have come accustomed to. The words of one protester, "Make the banks pay for it instead of the people" sums it up.
In the USA most people protest because they don't want to live in a country like the ones in Europe. A relative few have protested for the same reason as those in Europe.
In Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, people are protesting … what? For the USA reason or the European reason? I am afraid the answer is "both." They want greater freedom and they want better welfare programs. The two are compatible but not in the way most of them probably think.
Nonetheless, I get the feeling that all of these Popular Movements are inspired by the others to a degree.February 2, 2011 - 5:32 am Link to this Comment
69. ApolloSpeaks
The menacing, terror-tied, Brotherhood ally Mohamad ElBaradei said of Mubarak's defiant decision to finish out his presidential term and life in Egypt that it's totally unacceptable. And just as he threatened violence earlier in the day if Mubarak refused to resign and leave the country ElBaradei now says that the dictator is a man marked for death. He's a " lame duck president and dead man walking" says the angry Nobel Peace Prize winner as his dream of replacing Mubarak turns to dust.
Mubarak knows the danger he is facing. He knows the intensity of the anger rising against him; but he refuses to play the coward. He is a survivor who has escaped the fate of Anwar Sadat; in thirty years he's escaped seven attempts on his life and has contempt for Elbaradei's threats. He refuses to go the way of the Shah and flee Egypt for his life. "You want me to leave the land I love then come and kill me," he is saying to Elbaradei and the Brothers. And this could happen, but by other means……….
Click my name to continue reading articleFebruary 2, 2011 - 5:44 am Link to this Comment
70. James May
It's 4 pm the afternoon after Mubarak's speech. The protesters have left Tahrir Square and have been marching and driving up and down the streets outside the square for the first time since last "Angry Friday" when they, and I, were tear gassed relentlessly as they tried to get to Tahrir Square, followed by an appalling battle at Tahrir Square that night after the riot police were pulled away.
The net came back on today and things seem calm and somewhat euphoric. The ATM's have only been down sporadically.
It was quite a 5 days. Take a peak:
http://www.jamesmaystock.com/EgyptRev/Assets/EgyptRevSplash.htmlFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:07 am Link to this Comment
71. Barry Meislin
…says the angry Nobel Peace Prize winner….
File under: "Hell hath no fury like a Nobel Peace Prize winner snubbed"??
…as his dream of replacing Mubarak turns to dust.
Though one might think that someone who dealt with half-lives for most of their lives would be somewhat more patient.
But hey, watch out! Here comes Obama to knock heads!! ("Us Noble Peace Prize laureates gotta stick together!!")
( File under: "…as his dream of replacing America turns to dust"?)February 2, 2011 - 6:11 am Link to this Comment
72. Cybergeezer
48. ⚢ Teresita
Thanks for the chuckles.February 2, 2011 - 6:17 am Link to this Comment
73. Teresita
Chris Matthews: Tea Party Is Like the Muslim Brotherhood (Moron)
Meanwhile, another Obama rat jumps ship – Energy Czar Carol BrownerFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:25 am Link to this Comment
74. Barry Meislin
David Pryce-Jones weighs in:
File under: "I can see clearly now the tear gas is gone"?
But that sounds a tad premature. More likely, Mubarak, having grown weary of sounding like one hand clapping, is prepared to go out feet first, declaring: "Watch out punks. I'm not going to let any of you push me around. I don't care what country you live in (or who yo' mama is)."
And so—Sputniks be damned—will Obama be having his "Ngo Dinh Diem moment"….?
(On the other hand, at this point does it really matter?)February 2, 2011 - 6:44 am Link to this Comment
75. Habu
66. stoicheion
Iask this out of ignorance and I'm too busy today to look it up…but if you know off the top of your head I'd appreciate the schooling (don't go to any great lenghts though)
"Around 2.4m barrels of oil are shipped through the canal each day while the SuMed pipeline carries 2.5m a day. That's around 5.5% of world output, according to the latest official forecasts.."
5.5% That is not a fatal number. Plus modern super tankers are too big to use the canal.
OK, when does Europe start to get real sick as opposed to fatal if they lose the SuMed?
Pre appreciation
HabuFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:45 am Link to this Comment
76. Doug
Buddy Larsen thinks Browner quit for some reason other than not wanting to testify on her BP machinations and creations.
Only he can explain.
Obama is a disaster for the economy:
Uncertainty is prosperity's enemy.
Luckily, in foreign policy the opposite is true:
He can always be counted on to come out on the side of America's enemies:
Should we be surprised that he cheers on the MB when the MB is even more influential in the Obama Whitehouse than it was in W's/Karen Hughes?
Not anymore than we were when he opted out of supporting the protests for freedom in Iran.
As Stephen's link points out:
The bad actors arrived just in time to eradicate an ongoing movement leading to something better.
Just as liberal social welfare programs always arrived here the moment a positive solution seemed eminent.
Underdogma, conspiracy theories, and
The Liberal Death Wish
José Moreno:
"The fact is that all of them [conspiracy theories] share a common ground: USA is to blame, Israel too…Among those who blame on America I've never seen anyone just slightly critical about USSR or Russia, China or muslim terrorist, all of them are just a reaction to the evil power of America."
Malcolm Muggeridge:
"How I first came to conceive the notion of the great liberal death wish was not at all in consequence of what was happening in the USSR, which, as I came to reflect afterward, was simply the famous lines in the Magnificat working out, 'He hath put down the mighty from their seat and hath exalted the humble and meek,' whereupon, of course, the humble and meek become mighty in their turn and have to be put down.
"It was from that moment that I began to get the feeling that a liberal view of life was not what I'd supposed it to be—a creative movement which would shape the future—but rather a sort of death wish. How otherwise could you explain how people, in their own country ardent for equality, bitter opponents of capital punishment and all for more humane treatment of people in prison, supporters, in fact, of every good cause, should…prostrate themselves before a regime ruled over brutally and oppressively and arbitrarily by a privileged party oligarchy? I still ponder over the mystery of how men displaying critical intelligence in other fields could be so astonishingly deluded. I tell you, if ever you are looking for a good subject for a thesis, you could get a very fine one out of a study of [this phenomenon]."February 2, 2011 - 6:54 am Link to this Comment
77. allen
Daniel Pipes has up a concise, interesting piece. He thinks that the events in Tunisia and Egypt are military operations. That is my take as well.
As earlier said, Israel has no shortage of nuclear options. If it comes to implementation, Israeli officers and NCOs will follow the lawful orders of their leadership.
It should be understood that the Israeli military is becoming more "orthodox". With that thought in mind, a "deal" with the PA may be now impossible.
acheinu kol beit yisraelFebruary 2, 2011 - 7:06 am Link to this Comment
78. Larry in the Silicon
I saw a post by an Iranian on Facebook in which he suggests that the MB may be involved in the 'pro-Mubarak' demos in Egypt, as a way of stirring instability and gaining power. He pointed out that the Khomeinists did this in Iran, circa 1979. Sounds very possible.February 2, 2011 - 7:40 am Link to this Comment
79. Habu
Before my workout I just wanna get pumped up with my war cry
NUK'EM ALLFebruary 2, 2011 - 8:09 am Link to this Comment
egypt wants islam, islamic egypt wants to go to war with Israel to kill the Jews, egypt does not want freedom or democracy.
The USA gives egypt 1.3 billion dollars in aid yet says it's going broke and cannot give COLA to social security or VA.
I say, let egypt get it's islam and if they want attack Israel the egyptians will then get what they want and what they so richly deserve, the USA saves 1.3 billion dollars.
Then the COLA for SSI and VA can be paid again.
They starve and die by Israeli hands and our seniors get paid again.
problems solved.February 2, 2011 - 8:10 am Link to this Comment
81. General P. Malaise
why don't you want to believe your eyes? there are a lot of bloggers here who have a lot of history and insight.
egypt will not become a democracy …ONE MAN ONE VOTE ONE TIME.
THAT LINK IS FOR THE MOST HOPEFUL OF SITUATIONS …i DON'T PERSONALLY THINK IT WILL BE THAT NICE…
the person on the ground in egypt is saying the same things that someone on the ground in iran 1979 was saying.
it doesn't matter ..and the POTUS has now come out in favour of the muslim brotherhood and we are hearing talk of an american envoy talking with the brotherhood.
SO HOW DO YOU THINK IT WILL TURN OUT.February 2, 2011 - 8:11 am Link to this Comment
82. blert
All that you have to know about the oil market is that the VLCCs have been slow motoring for months. That is they've been dieseling along at 30 to 40 percent of normal cruising speed. This permits the carrier to save on fuel and wear and tear on the machinery. The increased labor cost of a slower journey is trivial in comparison.
If the canal is blocked the VLCCs will simply speed up to normal speed and cover the shortfall before the retail market is affected. This is why the oil market is not particularly concerned about transit.
The back and forth flow of oil is a miss-statement. Crude is going North. Refined products are going south. Crude purchases in the Med Basin heading south through the canal would be a new thing and are anti-logical. The only source of note would be Turkey: Iraqi and Caspian pipelines terminate there. In normal trade all of the supply is vectored around the Med.
IIRC, Egypt sells crude oil to Israel. The source is the Sinai and Israel built the system way back when she held the Sinai. IIRC, this set-up was folded into the Treaty. The MB wants this cut off.
Like tanks in the Sinai, I believe that it would be a Treaty violation. I'd have to dig around on that.
For Israel, a non-oceanic source of crude oil is strategically important.
BTW, Israel is a chronic major customer for Egyptian exports, stuff like Portland cement. Arafat had a piece that action. He made some serious money when Israel built their defense perimeter!
Inre your critique WRT food stamps. The NGOs over the years have tried every variation… It is there consensus that while not perfect vouchers are hands down the best mechanism. Nothing else comes close. That here and there some player can game the system is a given. But the paper trail and overseas production of the vouchers and audits cause all of the big boys at the top to give up. They can't defeat the scheme at wholesale, which is normally where the corruption occurs. Petty, retail corruption is a trivial concern.
The big players want hard currency. No way do they want unconvertible vouchers.February 2, 2011 - 8:16 am Link to this Comment
83. Chuck Pelto
TO: Fernandez
RE: Heh
Does Barack Obama have any cards left to play? Or is he left crossing his fingers that the crisis in Egypt will end OK? — Fernandeaz
[1] What do you mean by "OK"?
[2] Who gets to decide what "OK" IS?
[One man's 'OK' is another man's 'poison'.]]February 2, 2011 - 8:19 am Link to this Comment
84. things that fail for 500 Alex
one of the serious problems the west has is they cannot tell the good guy from the bad guy.
the leftist hold up Mubarak as tan evil dictator …HOW CAN YOU ARGUE AGAINST THAT.
it is the same trick the left use in the USA ..over and over and the conservatives fall over themselves trying to defend themselves. THE ALWAYS FAIL TO SEE THAT THEY ARGUE THE LEFTIST TALKING POINTS.
…back to egypt …I have said before that the problem in countries like egypt and tunisia that the problems grow faster then any possible solution.
Mubarak could not loosen his grip without international support and worldwide condemnation of radicals like the muslim brotherhood. So he was stuck holding the line. The truth of his leadership may come out after a few years of subjugation by the brotherhood.
Spain seems to be going through a phase where the evils of Franco are being brought out.
how quickly people forget that he was the better option at the time.
How many people in iran are saying ..the Shah wasn't nearly as bad as it looked.
history repeats itself.
people are generally too stupid and too sheeplike to know what is good for them and what isn't.February 2, 2011 - 8:27 am Link to this Comment
85. General P. Malaise
hey chuck ..tried to send an email and even registered on your site ..but no joy.February 2, 2011 - 8:29 am Link to this Comment
86. exhelodrvr
Again, we don't have anything close to that capability. The link you posted to was about C-17s, not C-130s, and they only fed about 70K people per day. Cairo has a population 100+ times that.February 2, 2011 - 8:54 am Link to this Comment
87. Larry in the Silicon
Israel is going to develop very nice natural gas fields offshore. I believe the Cypriots are partnered with us. Should the Syrian-Hizbollah-Iranian axis attack, along with some primeval MB regime in Egypt, we will take parts of the Sinai.
I will also 'recommend' (ha!) to my acquaintances that we take S Lebanon up to the water sources. Okay, enough for now…February 2, 2011 - 9:14 am Link to this Comment
88. Chuck Pelto
TO: General P. Malaise
RE: [OT] Sorry About That….
….I hadn't noticed the registration.
Try now….
[Good user interface is the hobgoblin of running a blog.]February 2, 2011 - 9:19 am Link to this Comment
89. Teresita
JPOST: Egyptians call on Israel to oppose Mubarak, say if support continues for leader, "We will start to hate Israel more."
(More? Gosh! Not that! Anything but that!)February 2, 2011 - 9:22 am Link to this Comment
90. Larry in the Silicon
Teresita – dance much with the devil?February 2, 2011 - 9:27 am Link to this Comment
91. allen
87. Larry in the Silicon
Re: strategic depth
From day "one", some have advocated Israel's capture of the Sinai on the slightest provocation out of Egypt. Note: "slightest provocation" by anyone, whomsoever. Anything less will mean the slow death of Israel by one-thousand cuts. You can bet big time that the Egyptians are going to test Israeli resolve. We must crush them in detail at that moment (+/- 48 hours).
Yes, Mr./General Barak's abandonment of southern Lebanon and our allies there becomes more problematic by the day. After neutering Syria, Israel needs to reoccupy that space – for keeps. Indeed, the same should hold for the Sinai.
Git'er done!
92. things that fail for 500 Alex
read and weep
93. Charles
(from the last thread)
81. Eggplant
Again, it all boils down to grabbing a bigger piece of a shrinking pie.
While I agree that the modern world since the 1960′s presumes that the pie is shrinking I think this is false –nor is a historically American view.
For that matter I don't think you'd get a sympathetic ear for the shrinking pie philosophy in Israel. We've talked about their exploding natural gas resources. What's not been mentioned much is that their desalination plant at Ashkelon changed the water future for Israel. Coming online in 2006 Ashkelon produces desalinized water at about the cheapest price in the world (~$700@acre foot. ) and provides about 13% of Israel's water needs. The success of Ashkelon has created the groundwork for many more desalination plants in Israel. Such that Israel is on the way to water independence.
The natural gas and salt water were always there.
What changed?February 2, 2011 - 9:56 am Link to this Comment
94. Habu
82. blert
Thanks for the oil tutorial and the SuMed info.
..and vouchers may be the way to go but I have serious doubts that the grifters and such will get the best of the population.February 2, 2011 - 10:03 am Link to this Comment
95. blert
Southern Lebanon is a military briar patch. It's economic value is low. The Damascus watershed is a much better asset — and easier to capture. Further, it becomes a pressure point going the other way.
Far more valuable for security would be the dis-establishment of the Hamas enclave. Should the MB ever take over Egypt the very first priority should be to drive Hamas into the Sinai — and across the Suez Canal.
I believe that the animosity between the ummah and the Jews is such that only separation is practical. The MB and its ideology make it impossible for peace in the Western sense. Hudna is the best that one will see.
Food subsidies to Hamas should be curtailed. They work entirely against peace.
Marc Faber is predicting now, a month after me, that Pakistan is on the brink of its own Tunsian moment.
All of these failed societies have massively over invested in military arms instead of infrastructure.
Pakistan's nightmare is that her water resource is now tapped out. She's done nothing for thirty years to increase it. This folly will cause further agricultural gains to be halting and spotty. In contrast, Islamabad has no birth control policy worthy of the name. Malthus and his four horsemen are certainties.
We're looking at peak ummah in this decade. Child mortality rates must simply explode from here.February 2, 2011 - 10:10 am Link to this Comment
96. Josh
b @ 82: All that you have to know about the oil market is that the VLCCs have been slow motoring for months. That is they've been dieseling along at 30 to 40 percent of normal cruising speed. This permits the carrier to save on fuel and wear and tear on the machinery. The increased labor cost of a slower journey is trivial in comparison.
If the canal is blocked the VLCCs will simply speed up to normal speed and cover the shortfall before the retail market is affected. This is why the oil market is not particularly concerned about transit.
That's interesting. OTOH, the capital cost of an asset like a VLCC is fixed, whether it's moving fast or slow so slow movement raises the price of the goods anyway. And fewer transactions over a period P cuts revenues. If slow wins anyway, it must be a tricky optimization problem. Maybe cheaper than docking them somewhere idle.February 2, 2011 - 10:14 am Link to this Comment
97. blert
Taking a VLCC out of service is daunting. There are major expenses required to place it in storage.
The industry ALWAYS uses slow motoring until they throw in the towel. When that happens the oldest ships are typically sent to the breakers.
BTW, the ship owners can and do profit by holding an economic position in the crude they're carrying. That's how Onassis became absolutely filthy rich. He wasn't so much a ship owner as a speculator. He then played 3-card Monte with the tax authorities and faked out American price controls. That's why he had to marry the President's widow: she provided tax immunity.
When Onassis started hanging with Maria Callas, Jackie O. started spending $2,000,000 a crack at Winston's. Naturally they locked the door and opened the safe for her spree. Onassis sent his accountant along to tabulate the damage and pay her bills. In sum Jackie O. spent in the hundreds of millions of dollars on jewelry she could never wear just to spank her husband!
( Nothing for charities, though. )February 2, 2011 - 10:29 am Link to this Comment
98. wretchard
It's now looking like the protesters have chosen to up the ante and that Mubarak is digging in. Rather than defusing itself the situation has apparently sharpened. If violence spirals up then both sides will go past the point of no return. It will become a zero-sum game.
Moreover, Mubarak appears to have taken Obama's appeal to step down as an act of betrayal. Mullen is apparently appealing directly to his friends in the Egyptian military. So this suggests that the President's credibility in the Mubarak administration may not be very great any more.
One of the problems of straddling the fence is that you make two sets of enemies instead of gaining two groups of friends. It may be that whoever wins will hate the US. But the game is not over yet.
President Obama now has two ways to go. Take one side or the other decisively, that is, toss the coin. Or he can continue to play both ends, chancing the possibility that he won't wind up with anything at all.February 2, 2011 - 10:32 am Link to this Comment
99. things that fail for 500 Alex
98. wretchard
obama did abandon Mubarak …but he did it at the Cairo speech when he insisted that the outlawed muslim brotherhood be allowed to be in the audience.
obama has always played one side. ..he only appears to westerners to be playing at both sides because (IMHO) they are becoming stupid.
Wretchard …you are a very good writer ..how about taking this on. this is getting dangerously close to home. Europe has their problems with it too.
http://weaselzippers.us/2011/02/02/canadian-human-rights-tribunal-orders-womans-house-seized-because-she-insulted-muslim-employee/February 2, 2011 - 10:39 am Link to this Comment
100. bell curve
The farmers of the USA have produced food for our population and the world for 200 years. Egypt used to be the breadbasket of the Roman Empire, but now Egypt's population has risen to 79 million, which is about 35 million more that Egypt can feed on it's own.
The Rev. Thomas Malthus says:
"The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world".
—Malthus T.R. 1798. An essay on the principle of population.February 2, 2011 - 10:49 am Link to this Comment
101. exhelodrvr
"Take one side or the other decisively, that is, toss the coin. Or he can continue to play both ends, chancing the possibility that he won't wind up with anything at all."
What would the opposite of his campaign promises/speeches be?February 2, 2011 - 10:56 am Link to this Comment
102. Subotai Bahadur
# 82 blert
In an earlier thread, I cited a figure of 1 million bbl/day transiting the canal and pipeline going north. I got the figure from Bloomberg, figuring that they would be fairly current. You seem to be watching it in much closer detail than I. A few questions, if I may:
1) My assumption, with all the negatives that apply to the concept, is that the smaller tankers using the canal, and the oil coming through the pipeline was primarily for refineries in the southern EU; although some may go around to northern Europe via Gibralter. Is this correct?
2) What percentage of Europe's oil consumption is what transits Suez?
3) Am I correct that only a relatively small part of that oil is used for heating oil, with the majority going to gasoline/diesel/jet fuels?
4) slightly OT, but what proportion of EU exports goes south through the canal, if you know?
Subotai BahadurFebruary 2, 2011 - 11:08 am Link to this Comment
103. Marie Claude
from my egyptian twitter links
"I got news from a trusted source that the pro-mubarak protestors are being paid 400EGP ($68) a day. #jan25
"our friends in Tahrir Square were able to take videos of police officers helping thugs to get in and attack the demonstration. #Egypt #Jan25 "February 2, 2011 - 11:13 am Link to this Comment
104. stoicheion
75. Habu
Habu, I am an American. Why would I give a hairy Muroidea Arse what happens to Europe. America has pulled their chestnuts out of the fire twice last century. IMHO that is at least once too many. We should have let them fight it out in WW1. 'til the last frog and the last kraut charged each other with bayonets. Then there would have been no WW2 and no Cold War and no GWOT. NO Americnn policeman patrolling the planet. The 3rd worlders can kill each other to their hearts content in my opinion.
The USA has more then enough OIL for it's one needs. We import OIL because the swampies (Radical Environmentalists) won't let us drill and convert. Swampies got started in Rome. If Hitler had been left alone, Swampies would have learned how to play "Meat Hooks and Piano Wire", which was the German version of "Ropes and Trees".
Arabs would be a bunch of guys in robes selling OIL to the Reich. Russia would be a bunch of peasents paying their war debt in crops.
America would be mostly rural and Christian.
There would be no Israel, no Palestine.
So tell me again why I should be a sucker and care what happens to a bunch of Europeans? WE don't trade with Europe very much. Not enough to break even on the money we spend defending them.
No, if Europe wants OIL, let them go get it. They are more then capable of taking what they want from the Arabs, just as they have in the past.
NO, America being the worlds policeman is a BIG LIE!
The establishment makes a fortune off of America intervention in wars that have been going on far longer then America. WE need to stop. IF Buttholestan wants to invade Mudholia, fine, send journalists and sell them body bags. If Egypt want to close the canal, fine. Let the EU put together a combat group to open it again. Sell them the OIL to do it. There is a lot to be said for colonies.
Defense is one thing, sticking your nose where it doesn't belong is another.February 2, 2011 - 11:21 am Link to this Comment
105. Whitehall
I find Daniel Pipe's assessment in NRO persuasive (link above).
The military has the guns and the discipline and those have proven to be the key to governance in such countries. Remember that Murbarak is a "former" general in the Egyptian air force.
The Egyptian military will just exchange figureheads and turn the food back on – a consequence of a restoration of public order. The MB doesn't really have a lot of cards that I can see here, nothing to trump guns and wheat.
If I were Obama, I'd make sure that their military got all the wheat and other foods they could distribute – "carrots" are a better play than "sticks" in this case.February 2, 2011 - 11:24 am Link to this Comment
106. Marie Claude
hmm, stoicheion, except that WW1 cured your debt, your banksters won the jackpot in lending money to ALL the belligerents, and your industry made a boom within arm sales
But didn't the Germans pushed Mexico to attack the US then ?February 2, 2011 - 11:40 am Link to this Comment
107. Eggplant
Marie Claude @ 103 said:
"I got news from a trusted source that the pro-mubarak protestors are being paid 400EGP ($68) a day."
How much is the Moslem Brotherhood paying the anti-Mubarak protesters? Perhaps their payment comes in the form of access to virgins in the afterlife?
I love the Egyptians. They're wonderful people but unfortunately they have issues with the truth. If an Egyptian told me the "sky was blue", I would not believe it until I double-checked it myself.
Whitehall @ 105 said:
"The MB doesn't really have a lot of cards that I can see here, nothing to trump guns and wheat."
The MB has Allah on their side. In the Middle East, having Allah on your side trumps guns and wheat. This is reason #1 why the Middle East is a giant septic tank.February 2, 2011 - 11:44 am Link to this Comment
108. Chuck Pelto
TO: General P. Malaise
RE [OT] Try….
[1] Go to blog.
[2] Go to comments in top item.
[3] Click on my name under the comment I posted there.
Good Luck,
[If at first you don't succeed, try a different approach.]February 2, 2011 - 11:46 am Link to this Comment
109. buddy larsen
O/T but that thing bearing down on already flood ravaged Queensland is an awesome monster –the tight disc is a quarter the size of the USA (or Australia), packing 190 MPH winds. If it turns out to be a wet one too, Lord have mercy on the people –and on Oz commod exports –esp coal from Queensland.
Subotai, if you're looking for telling outliers, check the price gap between WTI and Brent –it's usually a buck or so (WTI makes more gasoline, Brent more diesel) so it's 8 times abnormal the last few days.February 2, 2011 - 11:48 am Link to this Comment
110. Teresita
JPOST: Palestinian Authority staging pro-Mubarak demonstrations, calling ElBaradei a CIA agent (what they really mean is if Hamas is for 'im they're agin 'im).
104. stoicheion: We should have let them fight it out in WW1. 'til the last frog and the last kraut charged each other with bayonets. Then there would have been no WW2 and no Cold War and no GWOT. . . Arabs would be a bunch of guys in robes selling OIL to the Reich. Russia would be a bunch of peasents paying their war debt in crops. America would be mostly rural and Christian. There would be no Israel, no Palestine.
It wasn't so much American troops and warships that helped the Triple Entente in WWI as American supplies and loans. World Wars cost a lot of money. No US entry in the Great War, and the German offensive in the spring of 1918 would not have been contained. Germany would have dominated the Continent, but something like World War II would undoubtedly have been fought between the USSR and Germany over Bolshevism. The British Empire would have resorted to sea power ever more, transitioning from the Coal Age to the Oil Age while remaining as the "world policeman" and eventually bringing it head-to-head against the Empire of Japan. Without the impetus of WWII and the Cold War, US technology would have languished. No moon landing. Computer revolution maybe thirty years later than it was.February 2, 2011 - 12:02 pm Link to this Comment
111. blert
With the Israelis astride the Suez Canal the Arabs and Egyptians laid down the SuMed pipeline, complete by 1977. ( Slow fellas ! ) On the economics, it's better to just use VLCCs and avoid the process. It's construction was politically motivated — big oil had nothing to do with it. ( Explains slow construction tempo. )
SuMed is dedicated to south to north crude flow originating in the Gulf/Yanbu.
BTW, the big Saudi export terminal is Yanbu NOT the Ras Tanura in the Gulf. The ULCCs can't get into the Gulf! That is the class of tanker that transits to Asia and to the LOOP in our Gulf.
Purely due to historical trade ties, hence vested economic interests in the consuming countries, the East Coast of Africa has long imported refined products from Europe. As long as any colonial ties remained the various powers closed the markets to nasty competition. Once that ball got rolling it was a long time before outside competition was felt. Further, East African consumption was puny and the big local consumers were still legacies from colonial days.
So you still find refined product from Europe being sold in Kenya, etc.
To top this off, many foreign aid funds from Europe specify that they be spent only on their exports. Not surprisingly that means contra-logical imports of gasoline and such.
In the Western Hemisphere it is our habit to ship amazing amounts of middle distillate ( Diesel #2 ) to South America. California's CARB ( California Air Resources Board — i.e. LA pollution control ) now demands ultra-low sulfur content diesel fuel AND catalytic converters on diesel trucks. For refineries not yet converted over their only recourse is to ship their output out. The amounts would astound you.
These cross flows make quick analysis of the market impossible. When one looks at 21,000,000 bbl per day of American consumption of crude oil — it doesn't tell you what you might think. Millions of those barrels are refined here to be consumed overseas! Further, we import over a million barrels a day of refined motor fuels — from Canada. And then an awful lot of Asian crude demand is simply displaced American oil consumption/ goods manufacture.
The SuMed has been running at reduced capacity. It's rated at 2,500,000 bbl/day, heading north. For all manner of reasons it is most unlikely that it will be affected in any way by the chaos in Cairo. It's half owned by the government, the rest by its OPEC brothers in the Gulf. It has political immunity.
As for the Suez Canal, Egypt will take extreme measures to keep that money machine rolling. I have not heard of any disruption to it.
Maersk and other shippers are closing their port offices which handle Egyptian trade. That's a wholly different situation. Empty bellies are going to clear the streets pretty soon.
If I were Mubarak I'd make sure that food became quite unavailable to the protesters. Rather like General Allenby one should work the technical side of the equation when dealing with muslims. This lets them flail around until their foolishness leads to hunger which drives them to rational behavior.
In the meantime, in areas left untroubled, Mubarak should proceed quickly with hunger relief policies.
As for the hot-heads: stain them with ink and record their actions. Then, when cooler heads prevail, one can calmly proceed against criminal behavior.
Europe in round numbers is said to import 10,000,000 bbls per day out of Gulf OPEC. So IF the Suez were really shut down it might seem difficult. But Europe gets a slug of oil from the North Sea, Russia, Turkey and around the Cape of Good Hope. I just don't see a major impact WRT oil scarcity.
In other news, the largest oil refinery complex in the world is on the West Coast of India. It's configured to import (Iranian) heavy sour crude. Iran is a massive importer of gasoline and this complex is greatly dedicated to their needs. Thusly, Iran is overrated as an OPEC exporter. A huge chuck of her exports come right back as refined imports.
Thus, net, net, Iraq is in front of Iran — already! This will only get more pronounced as time goes by.
Thirty-five years ago the Suez Canal was THE big deal for crude, but no longer. VLCCs did it in.
Yanbu and the pipelines that feed it also ruin the hold that the Strait of Hormuz had twenty-five years ago. Yanbu is KSA's major export hub.
And in other news, Jordan wants to build a pipeline to Iraq. The days of truckers humping oil through the desert should be over. ( Iraq has commercial deposits of oil right up to the Jordanian border. )February 2, 2011 - 12:09 pm Link to this Comment
112. Eggplant
bell curve @ 100 said:
"Egypt used to be the breadbasket of the Roman Empire, but now Egypt's population has risen to 79 million, which is about 35 million more that Egypt can feed on it's own."
This is true but the situation for Egypt is even more pathetic. Prior to Mubarak being dictator of Egypt, Anwar El Sadat was dictator. IMHO Sadat was a good and honorable man, despite being a dictator. It's unfortunate that he was murdered by the Moslem Brotherhood. Prior to Sadat's dictatorship was the dictatorship of Gamal Abdel Nasser. IMHO, Nasser was a demagogic idiot. Nasser actually thought communism was a good idea and the Egyptian economy should convert from agriculture to manufacturing. Nasser got in bed with the Soviets and with Soviet support initiated bone headed projects like the Aswan dam. The electricity from the Aswan dam was supposed to provide the electricity for Egypt's industrialization. Instead that electricity was used for making artificial fertilizer to replace the natural fertilizer that was accumulating as useless silt behind the Aswan dam. Nasser's socialist program established the bread dole for Egypt's population (the basis behind the current rioting). Prior to Nasser, Egypt was doing just fine as an agrarian nation using traditional farming methods. It was only after Nasser's failed attempt to recast Egypt as an Arabic Soviet clone that Egypt's problems began to spiral out of control.
buddy larsen @ 109 said:
"that thing bearing down on already flood ravaged Queensland is an awesome monster –the tight disc is a quarter the size of the USA (or Australia), packing 190 MPH winds."
When I lived in Queensland, the Loma Prieta earthquake happened and I told my wife "thank god we live in Queensland and not California". Now that I live in Northern California, I'm telling my wife "thank god we live California and not Queensland".February 2, 2011 - 12:10 pm Link to this Comment
113. allen
95. blert
To the extent that Israel quits playing rope-a-dope, I will be satisfied with just about any action that "strategically" cripples our adversaries. We have got to stop this stuff of winning wars while losing the peace. For all our sacrifice (e.g. the equivalent to some 120,000 dead American troops in the Yom Kippur War), we have NO security. Any dude with a tube and a rocket can lob one into Israel.
As to Hamas, I agree. We are going to be labeled war criminals by the UN, US and EU no matter what. If they are across the Suez, we will sleep better.
You have used the watershed before. This idea and others like it are being gamed, I hope. What people always seem to miss is the wisdom of hitting them where they ain't. It is unnecessary to kill large numbers of our enemies; the destruction/control of the infrastructure will do the job. Without water, death is swift in much of the ME.
BestFebruary 2, 2011 - 12:18 pm Link to this Comment
114. blert
"WE don't trade with Europe very much. Not enough to break even on the money we spend defending them."
Wrong in every dimension.
Year in and year out Europe is a huge and profitable trading partner. It and South America are the two chronic export markets for us.
Beyond that, the Europeans do their part to pick-up our DoD expenses by way of relentless imports of USD. These dollars cost us nothing to produce but are held in perpetuity by their Central Banks and as street money by their citizens.
Apparently it is beyond your keen to understand that those dollars can NEVER come back. They form the monetary base for those lands. We are EXPORTING our taxes to them. How many times do I have to say it.
Without that mechanism we could not afford the DoD you see today. It also compels our enemies to fund our DoD. Yeah, they can't stop buying our paper either. That has Hu all upset.
If you could ever get that linkage through your head you'd understand why America is a Hyper-Power.
In 2008, France — the nation and the government — almost went bankrupt. The Fedsury bailed Paris out. But it was more than Paris — we bailed out London, Berlin and Rome. All of that with keystrokes.
The Bernanke testified that no less than 15 Central Banks in Europe and Asia were single-handedly bailed out by the Fedsury. Their collapse would have flat-lined the global economy.
In effect, Benny and the Press/ Inkjets bought back the junk paper that the Money Trust had kited all over. This stuff was so toxic they didn't dare sell it retail in America or Canada.
( BTW, Canada & America's financial markets are fused to a very large degree. Special law permits American securities firms to sell Canadian government bonds at all levels to Americans under the same syndications as native Canadians. The reverse is true. So if you want to buy Canadian government debt no law stops it.)February 2, 2011 - 12:25 pm Link to this Comment
115. Victor
UK Telegraph
"Long-running hostilities between India and Pakistan – which both have nuclear weapons capabilities – are at the root of fears of a nuclear conflict in the region.
A classified Pentagon study estimated in 2002 that a nuclear war between the two countries could result in 12 million deaths.
Secret records of a US security briefing at an international non-proliferation summit in 2008 stated that "a nuclear and missile arms race [in South Asia] has the direct potential to lead to nuclear war in the world's most densely populated area and a region of increasing global economic significance". "
I wonder why they decided to publish this today?
It is not exactly a slow news day, I mean Anderson Cooper got his hair ruffled in Cairo–the horror!
have they no shame?February 2, 2011 - 12:39 pm Link to this Comment
116. Marie Claude
"No US entry in the Great War, and the German offensive in the spring of 1918 would not have been contained. Germany would have dominated the Continent, but something like World War II would undoubtedly have been fought between the USSR and Germany over Bolshevism. The British Empire would have resorted to sea power ever more, transitioning from the Coal Age to the Oil Age while remaining as the "world policeman" and eventually bringing it head-to-head against the Empire of Japan. Without the impetus of WWII and the Cold War, US technology would have languished. No moon landing. Computer revolution maybe thirty years later than it was."
except that your scenario is wrong
The German offensive in spring was contained by the supreme commandant of the alliees troops, Foch, and when Americans came in he had already and favorably designed the aftermath of the of the counter-offensive. American soldiers weren't in the first lines, but the fact that they came in boosted the moral of our troops.
Now, if Foch had managed the victory alone, nothing of the Wilson articles would have been written, and we would have occupied Germany as wished by Foch, thus no possible Hitler would have rised from shadowFebruary 2, 2011 - 1:03 pm Link to this Comment
117. Marie Claude
"We are EXPORTING our taxes to them. How many times do I have to say it."
that's why de Gaulle sent you back a whole Fregate of them for gold sticks ! but unfortunately, Pompidou who was a Rotschild servant, broke our Banque de France ability to create its own money, and force our state to borrow money from the markets, it's how our national debt started !
in 2008, You bailed out AIG, that had debts with our banks, the most exposed being Deutsche BankFebruary 2, 2011 - 1:10 pm Link to this Comment
118. Marie Claude
may-be they are manipulating us, but it's not forbidden to sympathy with these youngs that hope for better times in gyt, even if this will finish badly for themFebruary 2, 2011 - 1:14 pm Link to this Comment
119. allen
116. Marie Claude
This is not meant to be a trick or a gotcha: What item comprised the majority of American tonnage in shipments to Europe in WWI?February 2, 2011 - 1:52 pm Link to this Comment
120. buddy larsen
MC, here's how to clear a square.February 2, 2011 - 2:01 pm Link to this Comment
121. Marie Claude
merdre alors, sont stoopid ces EnglishesFebruary 2, 2011 - 2:09 pm Link to this Comment
122. blert
Now that's what I call classic Anglo-French Relations.February 2, 2011 - 2:11 pm Link to this Comment
123. Teresita
Marie Claude, my thesis is not that the AEF under Pershing contributed much on the ground, but America allowed the allies to continue financing the war, and that in turn, plus a lot of sacrifice on the part of French, UK, Canadians, et al., led to Germany being turned around in late 1918.
And I call Bolshevik on post 112.
Loss of sediments and soil fertility
Before the construction of the High Dam the Nile deposited sediments of various particle size – consisting of fine sand, silt and clay – on fields in Upper Egypt through its annual flood, contributing to soil fertiliy. However, the nutrient value of the sediment has often been overestimated. 88% of the sediment was carried to the sea before the construction of the High Dam. The nutrient value added to the land by the sediment was only 6,000 tons of potash, 7,000 tons of phosphorous pentoxide and 17,000 tons of nitrogen. These amounts are insignificant compared to what is needed to reach the yields achieved today in Egypt's irrigation. Also, the annual spread of sediment due to the Nile floods occurred along the banks of the Nile. Areas far from the river are now being irrigated which never received the Nile floods before.February 2, 2011 - 2:13 pm Link to this Comment
124. Marie Claude
"What item comprised the majority of American tonnage in shipments to Europe in WWI"
get a ida here:
http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/Rockoff.WWIFebruary 2, 2011 - 2:46 pm Link to this Comment
125. blert
Obviously we have some faulty memories here.
The black day of the German Army was August 8, 1918. This is THE day that the German generals considered pivotal and the day they knew that they'd lost the war.
It was a black day because wholesale unauthorized retreats — full regiments and divisions fell back from the front. Frantic phone calls from superior commands were entirely futile. Morale in the German Army had collapsed up to the rank of full Colonel and higher.
It was directly attributed at the time to the US Army under Pershing.
The Germans had thrown four (4) divisions ( and elements of others ) at the Americans in and directly around the Belleau Woods:
The original (2) German formations were rated Class A – fully proficient frontline units…
Then a Class B unit was thrown in — the first line being destroyed utterly…
Then a reserve Class C unit was thrown in ( bottom of the barrel ) — and it was destroyed utterly…
All of this to stop a 2 Brigade AEF counter-attack at the German spearhead. Foch was simply raving with delight. The flip in French morale was astonishing and Foch wasn't shy in saying so.
Five weeks after engaging the German Army the AEF broke its morale — at the top, too.
GHQ followed this battle above all others. The Staff wanted to know what they'd be facing from now on. The reports to GHQ were the worst possible news: the crazy Americans fought like it was 1914. Even extremely heavy American losses did not stop pressure. Plus, the Americans cheated by using shotguns at point blank range. The wounds were horrific. A shotgun in trench warfare almost equals a submachine gun: you'll hit everyone.
The tempo of AEF pressure was so great that GHQ couldn't get reinforcements to the front fast enough. Worse, after four years of war Germany was critically short of Class A divisions. America, by contrast, ONLY sent Class A formations. America was so unblooded that every unit shipped over was a frontline assault division.
And then the American 'square' division of WWI = 4 French, German, British divisions.
That is the typical US outfit had 24,000 men…
The typical field strength of the other nations was down to 6,000 men. None of the other powers was able to keep their units up to TO&E strength. ( Authorized strength/ peacetime size )
That's why when you look at the battle maps for Meuse-Argonne show such astounding frontages for the American divisions compared to the French and the Germans.
Of course, telling a German divisional commander that he only has to hold of a single American division became a rueful piece of intel. It meant that he'd be facing a Class A totally fresh formation four times his size.
The realization quickly took hold in Germany: they would have to fight on for years against an entirely unblooded nation while starving at home and suffering from the Spanish flu.
This last aspect was top secret at the time. The Spanish flu got its name because the Spanish were the first to admit that a pandemic was underway. It was already killing more Germans, more French, more Americans, more British than the battlefield.
The Spanish flu ended WWI. It killed as many as the entire war all by itself.
Without Hoover and American food aid even more millions would have died. It was that bad.
Because of Spanish flu NONE of the European powers could win WWI. They were all losers.February 2, 2011 - 2:49 pm Link to this Comment
126. buddy larsen
WWI France has a tremendous lesson for USA today. In the Spring of 1940, before the German invasion, the French army was arguably the best on the planet –so said Churchill, even.
So what gave Hitler the nerve to attack, and why did the attack succeed so completely?
The theory that is most self-evident is that the French people had been completely, utterly, politically divided during the interwar period –half on the left with enough communists to completely alienate the other half, on the right, which contained enough german sympathizers to likewise completely alienate the French left.
The resultant paralysis was perfectly reflected in the military campaign, with French command and control –which should have had zero political friction inside, but instead had beaucoup.
So, here we are today in the USA, busily building ourselves the same model –at least in the polity –maybe not in the military –yet.
127. blert
I always thought that fodder was number 1…
128. Marie Claude
escuse-me I forgot to mention Belleau woods
Semper fi
well, anyway, the US involvment into WW1 was unavoidable, they h lost so many trading partners because of the conflict, also due to french and english blocus of the Northern Sea, whereas even the Viking countries were hitFebruary 2, 2011 - 2:58 pm Link to this Comment
129. Marie Claude
Buddy, we discussed the topic a few days ago, that communist propaganda played a role, sure, also the Goebels propaganda, the fed up of a genaration that lost so many men 20 years before, that simply didn't want to start a new war with Germany, and our Militaries that weren't prepeared for such a too soon conflict, they thought that it would come some years laterFebruary 2, 2011 - 3:03 pm Link to this Comment
130. blert
The real parallel is that France spent large on the next generation fighter aircraft — and then placed a small buy.
I know it's hard to believe, but Paris showered money on her air force and yet got very few machines in the bargain. Each flip-flop administration reversed the contracts issued by the prior…
So that funds were turned on and off so constantly that the various manufacturers spent it all on R&D and tooling up…
Only to lose the full production order with a change in administration.
Thusly, France had actually many different types of plane — but never plenty of any. Whereas Germany had super-funded the Bf-109 and as a backstop the FW-190A… And Britain had the Spitfire and Hurricane in full production mode… No French plane was ever truly cranked up in mass production.
The Dewoitine D.250 was considered among the best French fighters.
It was considered available for combat April 1940. They simply reached the French Air Force too late. They were swamped by the Bf-109.
Google for it…
Just count the number of independent aircraft designers France was supporting — including overseas. ( Douglas, Martin, Curtiss, Vought and North American )
Any resemblance to the F-22 is purely on target.February 2, 2011 - 3:07 pm Link to this Comment
131. blert
This link to French aircraft manufacturers will blow your mind.
Today America supports basically two companies!February 2, 2011 - 3:15 pm Link to this Comment
132. Marie Claude
Blert, your second link doesn't workFebruary 2, 2011 - 3:22 pm Link to this Comment
133. Marie Claude
"An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). [[[ An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical Association final edition of 1918" ]]]]
So the Spanish flu didn't spre anyone, probably that it helped to end WW1 earlier
Though Germany and her Mittleeuroa alliees were hit more than France and Britain, so, may-be this explains thatFebruary 2, 2011 - 3:56 pm Link to this Comment
134. Marie Claude
the Spanish flu didn't spAre anyoneFebruary 2, 2011 - 3:58 pm Link to this Comment
135. buddy larsen
And the Spanish Civil War was what was polarizing the French –the civil war that lasted into 1939, and ended only months before the two philosophies dividing the French both together — les Allemands and the Rooskis too — plunged into Poland and officially started WWII.
Amazing how many euro wars began over Spanish succession –the Franco-Prussian, The War of Spanish Succession, a Napoleonic or two, and one or two others i'm drawing a blank on.
That Dewoitine is a beautiful little fighter –with any numbers a match for the other WWII openers. Yup –an F22 cautionary tale alright –February 2, 2011 - 4:23 pm Link to this Comment
136. blert
Spanish flu reached right into the trenches. Hence, here and there GHQ would get a report that a frontline unit just got 'wiped-out' without any combat at all!
This explains why the German Army found it literally impossible to maintain the front. As the flu swept through their ranks high command was tearing their hair out.
It happened to the Allies as well. Thusly, both sides were mum about it.
But there was no denying American combat power as applied.
So for Germany the wheels had come off: a fresh nation was in the fight and they were absolutely stricken by the worst disease of the 20th Century.
It became impossible to maintain a continuous front and their enemies successfully hid their own pain.
Hence, November 11, 1918.
Hitler & Co were entirely clueless WRT the true situation as the Army knew it. Curiously, both Ludendorff and Hindenburg worked with and around Adolf. Neither seems to have brought him up to speed inre 11.11.1918.
( Ludendorff stood next to Hitler during the 1923 pustch. No wonder Hitler never got shot: he was standing next to a recognized national hero! ( Tannenberg, 1914 & GHQ 1918 )February 2, 2011 - 4:28 pm Link to this Comment
137. Marie Claude
Buddy, these spanish "causes" of war were still the remains of the Charlemagne inheritence and of Charles the quintus ruling dutch, german lands, northen Italy and spain
Putain de Hohenzollern that wanted to spread their genum all over Europe kingdoms !
There are still some beautifuls remains at the court of England !February 2, 2011 - 4:33 pm Link to this Comment
138. buddy larsen
MC, and they're not finished yet –one of the Wikileaks features one of the senior princes saying "We're back in the Great Game, and this time we're going to win it!"February 2, 2011 - 4:58 pm Link to this Comment
139. Marie Claude
"Unlike most flu the hardest hit were the young adults with a strong immune system"
"The first confirmed outbreak in the United States, if not the world, was at an army base in northeastern Kansas on March 11, 1918. Just hours after the first soldier reported sick, dozens more began pouring into the infirmary. By the end of the day, hundreds of soldiers had fallen ill. Within a week 500 had come down with the fever.
The flu quickly spread across the country, where 2 million troops were mobilizing for the war in Europe. The soldiers carried the flu with them when they shipped out, introducing the virus to France, England, Germany and Spain. "King George's Grand Fleet could not even put to sea for three weeks in May, with 10,313 men sick," reports Gina Kolata in her book Flu. The virus jumped to China, India, Japan and the rest of Asia. By summer it seemed to have played itself out."
ça alors !
"Responsible for approximately 320 000 to 350 000 deaths, the Influenza Pandemic of 1918/19, also known as the Spanish Flu, claimed more victims in Germany than any other epidemic of the last 150 years. However so far, the event has been researched mostly from a local perspective, and only as a phenomenon of the home front while neglecting the military and its medical statistics. An analysis of both civil and military sources establishes a much more complete picture of the course and consequences of this pandemic on a national scale. It becomes obvious that compared to the looming collapse of Imperial Germany and despite its virulence in the summer and autumn of 1918, the epidemic attracted relatively little attention in public or from the military and civil authorities. An international and comparative perspective reveals that the war situation of 1918 did not result in a more severe course of the epidemic in Germany than in other belligerent or neutral countries, as many contemporaries believed at the time (and some historians have claimed since). On the contrary, there are clear indicators that the state of war in 1918 led to fewer losses of life in Germany than if the Spanish Flu had hit a prosperous and internationally integrated society during peacetime."
uh the Germanz resisted better t the flu that it was admitted
http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/2618/February 2, 2011 - 5:00 pm Link to this Comment
140. Marie Claude
Buddy, who that ?February 2, 2011 - 5:04 pm Link to this Comment
141. allen
If MC ever wants to bet, go for the fodder.
I own (somewhere) "The Official Military History of the Great War", 1921 (?).
BestFebruary 2, 2011 - 5:36 pm Link to this Comment
142. buddy larsenFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:15 pm Link to this Comment
143. Marie Claude
uh allen, but you didn't read it, too bad, Blert doesn't need it !February 2, 2011 - 6:18 pm Link to this Comment
144. heyyoukidsgetoffmylawn
Four Aces
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0NXL/is_3_17/ai_109219963/February 2, 2011 - 6:23 pm Link to this Comment
145. Marie Claude
Buddy, thanks
"The US ambassador, a veteran career diplomat who speaks six languages, did not appear to have great regard for Andrew's intellect"
so , he's got a IQ appreciation, lol, Putin will eat such a young infatued prince
hmm, he isn't going to be in charge of anything, except drug dealing may-be that's a thing his Great Grand Mother did well beforeFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:35 pm Link to this Comment
146. Marie Claude
thanks for your links, sorry to not have mentionned the CanadiansFebruary 2, 2011 - 6:51 pm Link to this Comment
147. heyyoukidsgetoffmylawn
Ne rien la.
Il y a pas de probleme.
C'est pour vous.
"The most successful power in European history is France. The Daily Telegraph reports 'According to the historian Niall Ferguson, of the 125 major European wars fought since 1495, the French have participated in 50 – more than Austria (47) and England (43). Out of 168 battles fought since 387 BC, they have won 109, lost 49, and drawn 10.' "
C'est bon ca!February 2, 2011 - 7:27 pm Link to this Comment
148. buddy larsen
hyk/147; –they were fine until they hit a rough patch with that Robespierre feller –the Obama of the 18th century –
mc/145 –not sure but i think maybe the male boomer royals are not on that menu but are co-hosting the soirée –February 2, 2011 - 7:48 pm Link to this Comment
149. blert
"The first confirmed outbreak in the United States, if not the world, was at an army base in northeastern Kansas on March 11, 1918. Just hours after the first soldier reported sick, dozens more began pouring into the infirmary. By the end of the day, hundreds of soldiers had fallen ill. Within a week 500 had come down with the fever."
Curious you should bring up the story of my Grand-Uncle…
You see…
He was one of only two survivors from the ORIGINAL barracks so afflicted… Crazy, isn't it?
I brought up the pandemic to him so many decades ago. Within seconds he was shaking in rage, anger and sorrow. He'd lost all of his best buddies within days. He was compelled to bury the barracks with pick and shovel — along with the other sole survivor.
The Spanish flu blew through the camp. It looked and smelled like a death camp without ovens. The healthy could not bury the dead fast enough.
Outside Army doctors came into camp — and then spread the contagion nationally. Ultimately the camp was treated as if the bubonic plague had hit. Food would be provided outside the 'wire' and only after the providers retreated could those inside recover it. Yeah, they used rifles to hold off the camp survivors.
After enough time had passed — it REALLY got rough. For months the two survivors — those who refused to succomb –were given more tests than you can possibly imagine. My Grand-Uncle was bled to the point that the phlebotomists couldn't find a vein! Ditto for his co-victim.
Entirely new tests were concocted to stress both.
But the ultimate insult was against my Grand-Uncle's honor: he was accused of being a traitor — because he was still alive. He was regarded as a 'Typhoid Mary' agent sent over by the Hun to hurt America in the heartland!
This so infuriated my Grand-Uncle that even scores of years later he was completely unable to restrain his emotions over the extreme insult. ( BTW, he was not native born; those first 15 months can be a killer. No doubt Berlin planned well ahead. )
At this point in the telling my Grand-Aunt rushed in the room. Just on the violence of his emotions — she knew EXACTLY what the conversation had to be about. ( Later she told me that it hadn't come up for thirty-years. Due to my youth, she was shocked that I'd stressed his memory quite so. Then, later, she told me that my Grand-Uncle was relieved to tell me of his horrors.) He passed on ten months later.
Some of what he faced has been fictionalized:
In 'The Deadly Years' Chekov is subjected to the extreme medical stress that my Grand-Uncle suffered. For those who know of the Spanish flu the tale meshes perfectly.
The rest of the tale can be now told. My family is riven with Delta-32. My Grand-Uncle had a double dose.
Based upon other family medical histories — my family is glutted with individuals that never get sick. If only they'd known.February 2, 2011 - 8:14 pm Link to this Comment
150. blert
BTW, the graves were literally right next to the barracks. No one had the energy to take the dead any further.
Exponential death — like the plague — or death camps — creates an alternate mental zone.
It is so horrific that the emotions shut down. Like a doctor working a cancer ward… there is a real limit to tragedy. Only so much horror can be admitted.
Benny and Obama are situated to wreck more horror than the Shoah. All they have to do is to stay idiots.
Given his full ambit, the Zero is fully capable of making all and every forget Hitler, Stalin and Mao. As the leader of the modern world — his idiocies KILL.
Just ask the underclass — pretty much everywhere.
Please review W's prior postings inre what it truly means to be poor.February 2, 2011 - 8:44 pm Link to this Comment
151. Marie Claude
that's a great witnessing, thanks
"No doubt Berlin planned well ahead"
Do you mean that Berlin initiated this virus as one more chimical weapon ?February 3, 2011 - 4:15 am Link to this Comment
152. Ashen
Heinous news Habu. At least from the layman's view I observe. Maybe at least some of this graft will get checked.
Who wins in Egypt?
The Bruthahood?February 3, 2011 - 5:58 am Link to this Comment
153. buddy larsen
i second MC –great witnessing, blert. And great reminder of what a fine word that is, MC –the meaning you use there –deliberate observation for holding on to a piece of history –is shading out of the usage in the recent times. Re benny and the big hurt –yes, he is in that position –beware the distant academic with the power of law and an executive "don't just stand there, DO something!" mandate.
also, MC, re #137, does France use the term "Holy Roman Empire"? Re Charlemagne?February 3, 2011 - 6:13 am Link to this Comment
154. Marie Claude
for those who admire Petraeus and Bigeard, see what french book is Petraeus' favorite
Hmm, Buddy, we say Charlemagne's empire, but the Germanz would call it Holy Roman Empire, and still for them, Charlemagne is a german Hero and is regime is studied as a part of their historyFebruary 3, 2011 - 6:55 am Link to this Comment
155. Charles
My neighbor of french extraction — went to Paris in september. Since returning, he has taken to carrying a purse. I don't think a man carrying a purse plays quite as well in washington dc metro as it does in paris metro. I'm thinking about talking to his wife about the purse.
imho the glory days of atheism went from fall of the bastille to the fall of the Berlin wall. Atheism is now going into a long decline.
nature abhors a vacume. right now the great rising religion in france is islam. but imho its only a matter of time before christianity starts to get some traction.February 3, 2011 - 8:49 am Link to this Comment
156. Mr. X
32. buddy larsen
"The Russian Agriculture Ministry said January 28th it approved the rules governing the sale of as much as 500,000 tons of stockpiled grain in five monthly releases starting next week."
OMG, you mentioned Russia Buddy! You must be a Bolshevik posting from deep in the bowels of the Lubyanka! Or maybe the Russians just don't want their sunbathers disturbed by starving Egyptians? Could it be that not every Russian initiative is part of a heinous plot to revive the Evil Empire and destroy the West?
For the record, X is not Senor Equis.
Marie is correct that the French and British stopped the 1918 Ludendorff blitzkrieg sans panzers/trucks offensive mostly on their own, with the Americans providing mop up help at Belleu Wood (as nearly bloody for the Marine Corps as Iwo Jima and largely forgotten).
The German political class was the primary driver of WWI (per Fritz Fischer's Griff Nach Der Weltmacht, a study of Germany's Aims in the First World War published in the revisionist 1960s which showed remarkable continuity with the Third Reich save for the genocidal element — they wanted Ukraine, the Baltic States, etc).
Of course the other European powers also behaved stupidly and turned a Franco-German war into a World War (and the Russians didn't do too bad until German agent Lenin took them out of the war; according to Chris Bellamy's Absolute War a turning point for Gen. Rokossovskiy came in October 1941 after the Soviets had been smashed at Smolensk and a crippled old Russian WWI veteran asked him why they could stop the Germans but the Red Army with all its modern equipment could not). In my view some sort of Russian-German conflict would have been inevitable between 1914-1945 and woe to all the Poles, Ukrainians and Belarussians stuck in the way, until the expansion through force instincts had been beaten out of the German political class permanently. This is basically the thesis of the new book Bloodgrounds about the 1920s-40s in that region. Even with depressed late Soviet/1990s birth rates, there would be at least 40 million more people alive today in the region between the Vistula and the Urals if not for those wars and democides.
The German political class is still running roughshod over the wishes of their taxpayers not to bail out the Greeks and Spaniards. Got to keep those orders for 100k Benzes and German armaments going and pursue the old aims by different means.
Thus far Belarus and Ukraine have proven more resistent to Anglo-American-Teutonic bankster occupation through Soros cutouts than previously thought. This article at CounterPunch takes down the 'Myth of the Baltic Tigers' showing that even if they as EU members are richer than Belarus and Ukraine their demographics are so abysmal in a few years there won't be anyone left behind to implement the IMF austerity/loans mix that nearly destroyed Argentina after its own politicians had wrecked it. Of course, all that cheap subsidized Russian oil and gas helps Belarus immensely but now that prices are going up Lukashenko is yet another victim of Russian energy imperialism.February 3, 2011 - 10:18 am Link to this Comment
157. blert
Good grief X…
The Germans stopped themselves in 1918. They ran out of logistics. But for that their troops would have kept on going. They'd already broken through the meat of the Allied defenses with tactics the West was unprepared for.
Belleu Wood 'mop up' — you're killing me with that stuff.
It turned the entire flow around and saved the morale of the British and above all the French. Foch said so, himself. Which makes your assertions a joke.
At the time of the battle Spanish flu was already running wild all over Western Europe. It killed as many people as the war itself. Get a clue. The carnage didn't stop until well into 1919.
The Spanish flu dominated EVERYTHING that happened. The major combatant powers were in a health lock-down mode. Health news WRT the Spanish flu was CENSORED everywhere, even after the war.
I rather suspect that the flu reached Russia and Poland and influenced events there, too. However, a pandemic like Spanish flu is outside the story line for most historians. The fact that while it raged the publications of record were HIGHLY censored skews the record.
Much of the suffering during the Russian Civil War and post-war Poland was flu related. IIRC, the Red and White Armies chronically suffered more flu deaths than battle casualties. At the time no medical authority could figure out how to contain it. You can only imagine what the flu did to prisoners in custody.
As for a Franco-Germanic war going global: France ONLY entered the war AFTER Russia was in it. You can't get anything straight.
Further, Britain entered the war only after Germany violated Belgian territory. This broke the treaty signed by Russia, Britain, France, Austria, Prussia, et. al. that cleaved off Napoleon's cannon factory and created modern Belgium. ( By way of a pit stop of ten years under Holland. ) Until that moment Britain was a German ally! ( Had been for centuries, too. )February 3, 2011 - 1:35 pm Link to this Comment
158. Fletcher Christian
#104 stoichieon – "If Egypt want to close the canal, fine. Let the EU put together a combat group to open it again."
We did. Before the EU existed. Ever hear of the Suez crisis? And what happened? Clumsy, stupid, ignorant and arrogant America stopped us.
9/11 was ultimately your own fault. So is, ultimately, the whole problem of Islamic terrorism. Had the USA backed the UK and France – or even just stayed the hell out of the way – Arab/Islamic nationalism would have been stillborn.February 3, 2011 - 1:56 pm Link to this Comment
159. buddy larsen
And now, in our evening presentation of "Sins of USA", we introduce the distinguished dyslexic Anglo/Amerindian lecturer, Dr. Two Dogs Boffing, who, according to my notes, will address us on "the white man's broken treace peaties" :February 3, 2011 - 6:38 pm Link to this Comment
160. buddy larsen
–mr x –i believe this is the book to which you refer, Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder or Matthew Price (hard to tell, check out the execrable layout).
here's part of the A&L blurb:
((open quote
September 1, 1939, the day Hitler's army invaded Poland, is one of the most infamous dates of the 20th century. But how many of us recall September 17, 1939, when Soviet forces charged into Poland from the west? Germany and Russia, acting together on terms laid out in a secret pact, tried to destroy an entire country – and nearly succeeded. The sinister partnership would not last. Two years later, Hitler turned on Stalin and invaded the Soviet Union, which would spell doom for the Wehrmacht. In the West, we think of the heroics of D-Day, but it was the Soviet Army that ultimately broke the Nazi war machine; the British and Americans merely finished it off. Stalin ends up in the history books as a saviour, along with Churchill and Roosevelt, in the struggle against Hitler.
Even now, it is far easier to think of Stalin as an opponent of Hitler than as a partner. We like to tell ourselves that the virtuous side won the war, but what happened in the east confounds such notions. Even before a shot was fired, Stalin had the blood of a nearly four million Soviet citizens on his hands. Between them, the Soviets and Germans killed nearly 200,000 Poles – targeting doctors, lawyers, scientists, professors, and religious figures. They all died in a region that the historian Timothy Snyder, in his striking and important new book, calls the "bloodlands".
It was a place of shifting allegiances, an ethnic and linguistic patchwork. The zone extended east from central Poland into western Russia, and from the Baltic States in the north to the Black Sea in the south. It was a place where German, Slavic, Baltic and Jewish cultures collided and mingled.
This was the terrain of Europe's killing fields, "where the power and malice of the Nazi and Soviet regimes overlapped and interacted". Here is where the Holocaust unfolded with a grim relentlessness.
close quote))
For getting the title wrong, Mr. X, you are sentenced to six months in salt mine of Lower Slobovia Kamp 519a. Black Maria is waiting outside your door, please to grab toothbrush and bread ration card on way out.February 3, 2011 - 11:55 pm Link to this Comment
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