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Lincoln Power MIG 180C MIG Welder Pkg. With Deluxe Cart K520 (K2473-2)
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subset: commoncrawl


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Planet Minigolf is a minigolf game from Zen Studios, for Playstation Network.
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View EysteinH's Instablogs on:
An Historical Prognosis Of Rec Cash Flow Q2 2012 Until Q1 2013
First the results of the historical prognosis:
World average prices per quarter:
q12012: 0,90 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)
q22012: 0,81 $ per watt. / -10% /
q32012: 0,77 $ per watt. / - 5% /
q42012: 0,73 $ per watt. / - 5% /
q12013: 0,69 $ per watt / -5 % /
Rec ASP per quarter:
q12012: 1 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)
q22012: 0,89 $ per watt. / -10% /
q32012: 0,85 $ per watt. / - 5% /
q42012: 0,80 $ per watt. / - 5% /
q12013: 0,76 $ per watt / - 5% /
Rec production cost per quarter:
(not included deprecation)
q12012: 0,97 $ per watt. - OK - (adjustet for current euro/dollar values)
q22012: 0,87 $ per watt. / -10% /
q32012: 0,78 $ per watt. / -10% /
q42012: 0,72 $ per watt. / -5 % /
q12013: 0,68 $ per watt / - 5 % /
Rec cashflow margin per quarter:
q12012: 3% / 3 cents per watt /
q22012: 2,2% / 2 cents per watt /
q32012: 8,2% / 7 cents per watt /
q42012: 10% / 8 cents per watt /
q12013: 10,5%/ 8 cents per watt /
Rec cashflow at 160 MW sold:
q22012: 3,2 mil $ / 2 cents per watt /
q32012: 11,2 mil $ / 7 cents per watt /
q42012: 12,8 mil $ / 8 cents per watt /
q12013: 12,8 mil $ / 8 cents per watt /
Rec ASP per quarter:
Q12012: 30/24? $ per KG
q22012: 24$ per KG / 0% /
q32012: 23$ per KG / - 4% /
q42012: 22$ per KG / - 4% /
q12012: 23$ per kg / + 4% /
Rec production cost per quarter:
(not included deprecation)
q12012: 15,5 $ PER KG. - OK -
q22012: 15,0 $ PER KG / -3,2% /
q32012: 14,5 $ PER KG / -3,3% /
q42012: 14,0 $ PER KG / -3,4% /
Rec cashflow margin per quarter:
q12012: 35,4 / 8,5$per kg /
q22012: 37,5% / 9 $ per kg /
q32012: 36,9% / 8,5$per kg /
q42012: 36,3% / 8 $ per kg /
q12013: 41,3% / 9,5 $ per kg /
Rec cashflow t 3650000 KG sold
q22012: 32,9 mil $ / 9 $ per kg /
q32012: 31,0 mil $ / 8,5$per kg/
q42012: 29,2 mil $ / 8 $ per kg /
q12013: 34,7 mil $ / 9,5$perkg /
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: I am long in REC on the Norwegian stock exchange.
A closer look at Renewable Energy Corporation wafer division
In my first "a closer look at" I looked at the silicon division of REC and found that the current value of REC was less than what I believed the silicon segment to be worth. Link: seekingalpha.com/instablog/901705-eystei...
This time we will look at the wafer segment at REC. This segment is the story of falling EBITDA margins due to investing during high cost years of 2007/2008, a market confrontation over margins and a very rapid fall in wafer prices more than REC anticipated in the 2010 roadmap they had starting 2006. But it is also the story of hidden underwritten value in book values, a hope of relief in the price war, technology investment that will pay dividends later and achievement beyond the 2010 roadmap.
This article assumes you know the basics of solar modules making. If you don't feel you have a good grasp on this I made a basic introduction to it for amateur investor from an amateur investor: seekingalpha.com/instablog/901705-eystei...
Current book value of wafer segment: "Too much write downs with hidden value?"The current value of wafer in Norway is 1.05 billion NOK. Q2 saw write downs of 4.7 billion NOK in wafer Norway. The reason was the 45% drop in wafer prices from may to June 2011. Here is a lot of hidden value should the current wafer prices improve or the costs in production be reduced. And in 2009 a 991 million write down happened with the mono wafer plant in Glomfjord due to failure to ramp up in time. The investment on the mono plant was 1.3 billion NOK in 2007 and 500 million NOK in 2008. In Herøya 3&4 the investments in 2008 was 2.5 billion NOK. The capacity of Glomfjord mono is 300MW but currently estimated 2011 total will be 146 mw under half the capacity. Again if the ramp up should gain speed there is a potential for hidden value to become clear. There is a current trend happening on this now as I will show later in the article. In Singapore 1.4 billion NOK was written down this quarter and this was from the most modern equipment, probably in the wafer segment as this saw heavy underwriting this quarter. Again here is a hidden value should the operation be improved and wafer segment coming online again. In 2007 REC invested in a R&D center worth 210 million in Herøya focused exclusively on the wafer segment. In 2007 Herøya 3 and 4 was invested at 2.5 billion NOK (Herøya 3 built in 2008 and Herøya 4 built in 2009) and together with Singapore form the most modern wafer segment at REC.
Since the current price of REC is less than the silicon segment alone as I argued earlier then the wafer segment is basically "free" and anything positive that happens should be a good catalyst for market price increases.
"Story of falling EBITDA margins"
Graph 1: "Ebitda trend downward" -% EBITDA by year.
Year Ebitda wafer wafer production multi mono % mono 2006 34 317 286 41 14,34 % 2007 42 507 469 38 8,10 % 2008 34 582 541 41 7,58 % 2009 18 799 758 41 5,41 % 2010 12 1210 1121 89 7,94 % 2011 15,7 1123 977 146 14,94 % Table 1: "Ebitda 2006-2011 (estimate) "
Currently the trend has been since 2008 of a rapid decline in wafer prices as EBITDA margins show clearly. From May to June 2011 wafer prices dropped 45% while polysilicon spot prices dropped 32%. Since REC have stable silicon prices of 50$ per kg this hit the wafer segment hard as most of the decline in price was taken in this segment. I believe that currently the trend is for a price war happening where some few will remain victorious and the rest will have so low margins as to quit the business.
REC took a drastic step in q2 shutting production in its oldest plants Herøya 1&2 and Glomfjord multi starting q3:
"REC will temporarily shut down production at the oldest wafer plants at Herøya in the third quarter due to the weak market conditions. In addition, a decision has been made to temporarily shut-down production at the multi wafer plant in Glomfjord" (q2 report)
This means Herøya I & II and Glomfjord multi wafers are closed with around 185mw less production. For 2011 I have estimated a growing EBITDA at 34,6% q3 because of closing the oldest plants and inventory sales. Or 10,76% EBITDA excluding inventory sales. Ironically this estimate is actually conservative because there could be increased sale prices due to higher efficiency wafers while I have calculated with 9% further price drop and increasing demand could make prices slightly higher. I have also noticed that they have phased out the older 225W modules at a local retailer list www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm and now only sell 240W panels at a higher cost than earlier. (1.75$ per watt compared with earlier 1.55$ per watt.) so this could mean prices are on average higher now for REC.
One question that pops out is have we witness a bottom in the REC EBITDA and will it improve from now? The trend have been for faster and faster reductions but this can only go to a certain point before the trend will slow down. The reason? There simply is no current technology or easy approach to make costs reduce at the current pace. A recent trend in the Chinese companies is to focus on efficiency gains as the price drop based on cost reduction have slowed down. (source: www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2011/08/b...) I believe the current trend will benefit REC wafer segment as they have plenty of room to improve the wafer costs due to failure of achieving the original 2010 cost road map for wafers. Much more compared with its Chinese competitors. And REC efficiency is on a steady rise, currently at 16.7% and gaining to 18% in 2012. REC simply choose the strategy of taking the hard path first with increasing efficiency instead of the simpler measures to decrease prices like an in-house wire production. (More on this later in the production cost discussion.)
"Ebitda 2011 estimates"quarter 2011 revenue cost ebitda ebitda margins q1 sale price @ 5,49 cost @ 4,345 1 846 1560 286 16 q2 sale price @ 4,47 cost @ 3,56
1 190 1226 -36 -3 q3 sale price @ 4,0677 cost @ 3,63 ( I have assumed 9% fall in price levels) 1189,8 778,64 411,16 34,6 Q4 sale price @ 4,0677 cost @ 3,45 (I have assumed stable q4 prices) 876,59 743,48 133,11 15,2 average 1275,5975 1077,03 198,5675 15,7 Q3 excluded inventory sales @ 4,0677 cost @ 3.63 872,52 778,64 93,88 10,76 Table 2: "Ebitda estimates for 2011" Please note q3 includes inventory sales
Sale price calculated as (income without special items - EBITDA) / sales in mw and costs is income / production mw. So both are average prices for all REC wafer products. Note that sale prices are in NOK. (So for q1 around 1 $ on average.) I have assumed Singapore produced 170MW of modules and sells 15MW external for the wafer segment to increase its revenue. If singapore consumes all wafers (185MW of modules) revenue and costs both would be reduced 7% for Rec Wafer.
Graph 2 " Ebitda 2011 estimates"
Total production q3 will be at 214,5MW and inventory at 78 meaning 292,5 MW of wafers have to be sold for these estimates to be valid. In q1 rec sold 336 MW so this is quite achivable.
During q3 sale prices have fallen because it was only in the middle of q2 sale prices started dropping. Rec stated they dropped around 21% without heding effects and 17% with. Since the fall startet slightly after the middle of the quarter I have estimated another 9% drop in prices for q3 but even with this fall when REC decided to sacrifice revenue & production to just use the more modern plants we see a total new EBITDA picture at 411,16 million NOK with inventory sales included but 93,88 million NOK without inventory sales. (Inventory costs have been written down q2 already.) For quarter 4 I have estimated stable sale prices but this scenario I am not sure will happen, due to a higher mono wafer percentage the average price should be higher. Further more without the 220watt modules I suspect was produced at the old Herøya plants the sale price is more likely to increase due to higher watt modules. With my conservative estimate Q4 REC will gain 133,11 million NOK q4. I think the potential is positive for q4 but I would rather err on the negative side than on over enthusiastic estimates. Ironically the write downs of wafer segment in q2 2011 was far more than the old factories leaving only 1 billion NOK left out of the value of the new plants invested for 2.5 billion NOK in 2007 and finished built in 2008 and 2009.
"Falling wafer production for first time"
Graph 3: "Wafer production stagnating and falling slightly 2011 for the first time due to market pressure" (wafer production for REC WAFER)
I have estimated that q3 and q4 the oldest factories will not produce wafers and total for 2011 will be 1123 mw (977multi 146 mono) for mono i have estimated a growth of 1 mw q3 and q4 (35+36+37+38mw q1-q4.) This will be the first time REC actually slows down wafer production as this had gained speed since 2006. This indicates quite clear that drastic measures was put into action when they temporary shut down the oldest wafer plants. Since these oldest plants was upgraded in 2010 with retrofits to the ingot furnaces the efficiency of these wafers where on pair with the rest of the wafer production (more on this later in the technology segment of the article) but these factories have less automation and have a higher cost per watt than the newer plants, taken together with the fact that the Norwegian government pays worker salaries after 2 weeks for up to 54 weeks (www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-ca...) this alone means wafer cost should drop q3. Also the fact that most of the wafer segment is written down means deprecation costs for q3 should be much lower also giving a lower production cost.
Graph 4: "Singapore and Herøya 3&4 the major capacity achievers"
The production capacity at Herøya is around 1.1gw. 650 mw is from the newest Herøya 3/4. (162.5 mw per quarter) leaving 450mw to the older two plants (112.5mw per quarter) taken together with the fact that in q2 the reduction means 185 mw less capacity this leaves Glomfjord multi at 72.5 mw per quarter (290 mw annually) Singapore have a capacity around 740 mw (185 mw per quarter.) If production halting at the older plants is not temporary then the current yearly production of wafers at REC total (Rec wafer and REC solar) is 1680 MW or 347.5mw per quarter.
Graph 5: "More modern capacity than old"
The fact that the current value of Herøya 3&4 is 1.05 billion NOK compared with the fact this plant contributes 650mw says to me that there is a lot of hidden value in this plant. The plant was built in 2008 and 2009. And saw some investment of 2.5 billion NOK and currently it and the mono plant is worth less than half the investment made 2 and 3 years ago. Q3 will be very interesting because it will reveal what is the cost of the more modern wafer plants alone not dragged down in result by the older plants. I suspect the reason the 220watt panels are no longer listed for sales in online retailers is because this was produced in the older plants while the new 240watt and above is from the more modern Herøya plants & Singapore. (The new modules have a higher average sale price of 1.75$ or 9,625 NOK per watt at a total cost of 1,51 $ / 8,3 NOK per watt q2.)
"What if: Wafers are used for internal modules and average selling is 240watt 1.75$"
As previously mentioned REC now sales 240watt modules for minimum price of 1.75 (9,625 NOK) per watt according to www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm august 14. From hugin.info/136555/R/1531802/466302.pdf the REC q2 report we know cost at Singapore for the module totaled 8,3 NOK or 1.51$ and out of that cost 4,74 NOK came from Singapore as wafer cost was 3,56. Selling prices all wafers where used for modules they would sell at 4,885 NOK. As Singapore have it own supply of wafer this scenario would mean that REC can increase its wafer values just by adding capacity in modules to Singapore.
Increasing mono wafers production
Graph 6: "Mono wafer share increasing of total production"
From the lows of 2009 at 5% estimated 2011 mono wafer is around 15% of total production. In line with the current trend of mono wafers demand due to Europe demanding high efficiency modules. "This week, the cell and module market prices remained high at $0.9/Watt due to Europe's strong demand for high conversion efficiency solar cell." (source Energytrend: www.energytrend.com/node/1817) Spot prices of mono wafers are some 20 cents higher than its multi wafer counterparts currently according to Energytrend and 60 cents higher on average according to Pvinsights. (Source: pvinsights.com) This should help increase margins for REC going into q3. If Glomfjord manages to ramp up quicker to its capacity of 300 mw annually then this could also be a positive surprise.In my estimates I have not considered the effect of more mono wafers sold in increasing average sale prices (i reduced sale price by 9% in q3.) so that could be a positive suprise.
In the next section I will try to look at production costs for wafers, so first a very small introduction of the wafer making process is in order:
"A short introduction to the wafer process reveals the other areas of improvement. First silicon is melted in furnaces into big ingots. These ingots are then cut into big clumps that fits in a sawing machine that cut them into thin wafers. During the cutting a slurry is used together with a wire to allow cutting into thin wafers. Finally the wafers are separated from each other, washed and dried."
"Rec wafer production costs"
Graph 7 "Raw material costs of wafer production - is there potential?"
Rec: Q1 production costs. (Data from investor may pdf.)
Rec2: estimates modern production and 50$ kg poly price (what we will see q3)
Rec3: Estimates modern production plants only & cash cost poly @ 26$ per kg. (What we would see if REC decide to go for the same strategy as GCL with cash cost to focus on wafer sales.)
Rec 4: potential further cuts wire / slurry / labor discussed as possibilities.
Company Admin and deprecation in cents ingot wafer in cents poly cost in cents Total cost in cents NOK cost@ 5.5$ 4watt wafer in $ Ingot size Rec 18 33 28 79 4,345 3,16 1200 Rec2 10 31 25 66 3,63 2,64 1200 Rec3 10 31 13 54 2,97 2,16 2000 Rec4 10 24,4 13 48,4 2,662 1,936 2000 Ldk Included -> 25 28 53 2,915 2,12 800 Renesola Included -> 26 31 57 3,135 2,28 650 Gcl poly Included -> 24 14 38 2,09 1,52 1000 Typical cost Included -> 28 28 56 3,08 2,24 650 based on solarpvinvestor.com/asp-cost-data.html Tabel 3: "Summary of production costs for REC and major wafer competitors"
* Values in $ cents but 4watt wafer value in $ dollar. For NOK currency used is 5.5$ = 1 NOK. Ingot size in kg.
1. Polysilicon discussion.
From March 2011 to July wafer spot prices dropped 45% according to q2 report of REC. At the same time polysilicon spot prices dropped 32% but is still above REC contract levels around 50$ per kg. At the same time REC polysilicon cost is around 27$ per kg expected to drop to around 25$ per kg in q3 or q4 for REC. I think its only a matter of time before polysilicon drops to new levels of 45$ per kg. With 5.6grams per watt this will reduce costs from 0.28$ to 0.252$ per watt. With only newest Herøya plants & Singapore and estimate of 5 grams per watt this will be 22.5 cents per watt. If REC decided to go for cash cost production they could go as low as 13 cents per wafer in costs beating even Gcl-poly and having worlds best cash polysilicon cost for wafers. (This is scenario REC 3 in the graphs.) If i am not correct in my estimate of 5grams per watt then prices will be off by 3 cents per watt. I do belive this is not a over optimistic estimate because the more modern plants have a higher average effiency and since the wafers produce more watts they also on average need less silicon per watt.
Graph 8 "size of ingots due to furnace size"
Ingot size from Renesola public announcement, Ldk investor pdf.Gcl-poly ingot size source: pacificepoch.com/china-investment-resear... jgtec.en.alibaba.com/product/239490362-2... gcl-poly.com.hk/eng/press/media_photos_v...
2. Ingot discussion & electricityIn the furnace process Rec have an advantage in Norway with stable electricity (There have been several power outages in Chinese solar energy as of late http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2011/08/14/china-braces-for-escalating-power-shortages/?partner=yahootix) and that in Norway industrial energy is actually cheaper than consumer electricity while it's the exact opposite in china. Also REC is looking to push this advantage further with the development of the worlds largest 2000kg furnace that is stated in the q2 release as entering an "Intense development" phase. LDK solar reveals a lot about Chinese costs for wafer in they investor presentation they have had recently (A side note is that a former REC leader Goran Bye is now leader of Ldk polysilicon division.) http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/19/196973/2011InvestorDaypresentation.pdf here one can see that for a typical Chinese wafer maker 7% of costs is from electricity. Bigger furnaces allows the heating energy to be used more efficiently and should give modest gains in costs. The conclusion is that when it comes the ingots REC is ahead of "china inc" and have an advantage.
3. Automation advantage at REC
In the next phase where the ingots are cut then REC also have advantage in patented highly automated process for doing this and should be at very low costs. Especially for the newer plants Herøya 3&4 and Singapore and this should be revealed in q3 when only this production is sold and not averaged down with the older production with higher costs. Many Chinese manufactures use manual labor for these tasks. In short term labor can be beneficial but in long term the constant same quality from automated process have an upper hand in producing quality goods. I believe the automation approach from REC is the correct strategy. One should also note as the standard of living in China is growing fast and wages are increasing.
4. Cutting process ( Wire and slurry )
When it comes to the cutting process REC have a small advantage in that the new plants have very good capacity to cut thin wafers down to 120 μm in size (I think now the standard is around 160 um) when this becomes viable in the future. Also how thin the wire cutting influences grams of silicon lost in the cutting process and currently REC have a very good 5.6g per watt. I have estimated with using only new production plants for q3 they use around 5 grams per watt. (REC2 on the graph.) On the other hand I don't think they have a wire manufacturing facility like Renesola that reduced cost (probably around 2-3 cents per watt) so when it comes to the wire consumable they are at a disadvantage to some Chinese competitors. The same goes for the slurry recycle process where they have opted for a partner with sic processing. (http://www.sic-processing.com/) making them average and at a disadvantage to companies with an in-house slurry recycling process facility.
5. Labor costs
When it comes to labor costs REC is at a major disadvantage but they try to make up for it with automation processes. Ldk a typical Chinese manufacture have 3% of total wafer processing cost due to labor. It is probably not an overestimate to estimate at least three times as high labor costs in Norway/ Singapore combined on average. Of the 40 cents (q2 wafer processing estimate cost) in costs 3.6 cents comes from higher labor costs (9% of total costs perhaps?) and means REC needs a technological edge or electricity edge to make up for this small cents disadvantage. But luckily this is a small advantage for the Chinese companies and with electricity at around 7% of costs for Chinese competitors REC could nullify this advantage with the new 2000kg furnaces. In the graph 6 with the label REC4 I have tried to estimate cost reduction of an in-house slurry recycle & wire production and the labor moved to Singapore.
The processing cost for wafers around q2 was around 51 cents per watt. This includes depreciation and administration costs. Renesola and Ldk have around 26 cents costs q2 and Renesola is going for 19 cents per watt in q3 due to in-house wire production and new furnaces. It will be very interesting to reveal wafer processing costs for REC without the older factories making the price higher. Since the newer plants have higher automation labor costs are probably lower, with bigger furnaces (currently 1200kg in the modern plants) electricity costs are lower too. I also have a suspicion the sawing process is more efficient in the new plants. Taken together with the fact depreciation that for Ldk consists of 9% and Rec having written down most of its value already this should lower the costs even more. Rec have written down 80% of the value of wafers so depreciation should see a 80% reduction from around 14 to 3 cent per watt.
Summary of potential reductions in cost for REC:
Sales admin: 8 cents per watt (can be reduced perhaps?)
write downs: from 10 to 2 cents per watt (this will happen q3)
Rec poly cash cost: 26$ per kg (=13cents@5gram vs 28 cent @ 5.6 gram q2) Happens if REC goes for the Gcl-poly strategy
Rec modern p: 0.05 grams @ 50$ = 25 cents (3 cent save q3 if really the more modern saws have less kerf loss and less silicon is spent per wafer.) If I am not correct my estimates are slightly off in total cost for q3.
Rec wire: 3 cents less costs if Rec produce in-house wire production
Rec labor move: 3.6 cents, what if Rec moved equipment to Singapore?
Rec slurry: 2 cents with in-house slurry
Rec electricity: 2 cents (4 % estimate drop in costs with 2000 kg furnaces)
Rec increased efficiency: 17% average = higher sale prices due to more watt per wafer
Graph 9 "Wafer cost for a 4 watt wafer in a 240W module"
Q2 Rec sale price on average was 4,47$ per wafer and production cost was 3,1744$. Due to selling less than produced and writing down inventory margins where negative 3%. Q3 estimates 2.64$ cost of production and selling off inventory causing big margin jump. I am positive for REC wafer q3 and have reflected this in 34.6% margins in what I believe is a conservative estimate if I am correct that inventory will be sold out.
Partner discussion:
Two major Taiwan partners Gintech and Motech have had increased sales in July. Motech increased revenue by 18% from the previous month and Gintech increased revenue 52%. This also hints that q3 should be good for REC wafer. solarpvinvestor.com/news.php?id=39
BP Solar as partner of REC is a potential buyer of REC at current market prices in a move mirroring the TOTAL acquisition of Sunpower.
Discussion about thin film adventures:
REC have tried thin film and other technologies in the past but concluded the c-si route was more cost efficient:
"REC established CSG Solar back in 2004 together with Q-Cells and the former management of Pacific Solar and REC currently holds 23% of the company. REC has, through CSG Solar, invested in micro crystalline thin-film technology based on silane gas being deposited directly on a glass substrate (from gas to finished module)." www.recgroup.com/view?feed=R/136555/PR/2... In 2007 the share was reduced to 8.7% and they actively decided not to pursue this technology. Rec also had a share in Everq string ribbon technology before selling off Sovello (owner of everQ.) REC later sold its shares in Sovello.
I think personally REC made the right choice in not pursuing thin film as the future of this technology is more risky than the c-si that has a stable cost reduction road map ahead of it. Currently REC is experimenting with a cleaver process technology instead of sawing that have the potential to produce very thin wafers without kerf loss. (loss of silicon due to sawing.) This could of course be a positive surprise trigger for the future stock price of REC if it proves successful.
Discussion about outlook possible trends:
- china incCurrently my thinking is that in china we will see an increased internal market as the price point is within reach of what the Chinese government wants to start supporting the industry with FiTs. I think the Chinese manufactures will reduce another 10% in 2011-2012 to really stimulate this market and that the hope is for polysilicon prices to drop to allow for this reduction in prices without squeezing market margins for the more downstream manufacturers. So at least for China we will maybe see 45$ per kg poly prices in the end of 2011 or starting 2012. I also think that it will be hard for REC to gain market shares in this market when the Chinese government is heavily supporting they're own solar industry. I also think a bigger chinese market will stabilize prices more and we wont see a 45% drop in 2012 like we did 2011.
- combined mono/multi wafers
Another trend with the release of a old patent on combined mono/multi wafers into cells that have a higher efficiency at reduced prices combining the best of both types of wafers have been since in new products like Renesolas Virtus wafer, Rec hints that its new furnaces have capability of combined production of both mono and multi wafer ingots. Possible this could mean REC will launch a new type of module in the future based on this combined wafer approach.
- Europe demand higher efficiency, America in the middle and rest of the world cheapest watt
Europe is growing residential projects and this demands high efficiency. So mono cells or combined mono/multi based cells will gain market shares in Europe. America seems to have both types of markets with thin film of first solar dominating utility projects in big land areas and high efficiency cells from Sunpower dominating in the home residential market. In Asia and the rest of the world I believe currently cheapest cost per watt types of wafers will dominate sales. REC has not the highest efficiency but is around the top high efficiency producers and that with modules that work even in small irradiance levels. One could say the modules of REC are suited for the European and American market and not so much towards the low cost markets with its current strategy of quality over price.
Conclusion: I believe currently the price of REC is justified alone based on the silicon segment and the wafer segment is a free bonus that can be a huge market trigger if more successful. As I have tried to show q3 will be revealing in what the true production cost is of the more modern wafer plants compared with the older plants. And also a trigger in the future is the potential of the new 2000kg furnaces coming online that could even spark a new product line from REC. Finally the potential of cost reduction is easier to reach for REC now than its Chinese counterparts that are now struggling to further reduce in areas REC have superior advantages: Polysilicon prices and efficiency of the wafers. Also one should keep in mind the heavy write downs in value when on looks at the book value of REC. This equipment is state of the art technology and if paired with better wire & slurry recycling and perhaps lower labor costs should produce much lower wafer processing costs. I believe the write downs have been to high and that if someone was to buy out REC then these values would be more appreciated.
I also have look at the annual reports and found some technology developments in the later years and hints of what is to come:
2006: "Thinner wafers and
wire are the single largest cost savings
areas in REC Wafer's 2010 Cost Roadmap."
Herøya 3&4 " The new production lines have been designed
to handle 120 μm wafers and cutting wire"
2007: new crystallization technology for higher quality ingots. Advances in using thinner wafers and wires.
210 million NOK r&d center at Herøya for wafer
2008: new wafer sawing process
2009: new crystallization technologies in the ongoing ramp-up of new production at Herøya REC expects to make further progress in sawing technologies and is also progressing with tests of sawless wafer cutting processes. www.sigen.net/articles/SiGen_REC_final.pdf www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ar...
2010: ingot furnace upgrade "Furthermore, in the second half of the year the oldest generation ingot furnaces have been upgraded to enhance process control and improve product quality."
"REC Wafer has developed a low cost retrofit solution to its oldest generation of crystallization furnaces, which will be installed in the Norwegian plants built prior to Herøya III and IV."
"Finally, REC has commissioned and started up its new laboratory in California, dedicated to the development of thin silicon PV technology. The first devices were completed in the quarter."
2011: Increase in slurry recycle. New furnaces: "introduction of the world's first 2000 kg crystallization furnaces – up from today's 1200 kg"
Speculation: New laboratory in California more research together with sigen who is located in California? The cleaver technology allows very thin silicon wafers and this could be classified as "thin film."
Appendix 2: In the presentation q2 on page 29 they claim to produce 240 MW for q3 as a target. hugin.info/136555/R/1531802/466302.pdf. The most obvious target for how to gain this increased capacity is in glomfjord mono who if going at full capacity produce 75MW of mono wafers quarterly. While I think more realistically glomfjord is having a major ramp up to 55MW from 35 currently and Herøya 3&4 increase wafer production from 162.5MW to 185MW due to increased effiency of the wafers next quarter. I will try to show some implications of this if it proves true. It is less conservative than my original scenario but since REC itself states this as a target maybe we can look forward to quite the nice q3 for REC wafer. In this scenario I have calculated no surpluss wafers from REC singapore.quarter 2011 revenue cost ebitda ebitda margins q1 sale price @ 5,49 cost @ 4,345 1 846 1560 286 16 q2 sale price @ 4,47 cost @ 3,56 1 190 1226 -36 -3 q3 sale price @ 4,0677 cost @ 3,63 1293,53 871,2 422,33 32,65 Q4 sale price @ 4,0677 cost @ 3,45 976,248 828 148,248 15,19 average 1326,4445 1121,3 205,1445 15,47 Q3 excluded inventory sales @ 4,0677 cost @ 3.63 976,25 871,2 105,05 10,76 Note: q2 sale price lower due to currency exchange 5.4 and q3 5.5 exchange rate estimate Note: Conservative estimates on sale price as increased mono wafers and demand should increase sales Table 4: New estimates if REC produce 240MW of wafers and no singapore wafer contribution.
Graph 10 "New estimates if REC produce 240 MW of wafers q3 / q4"
Average ebita would actually be down 0.4 % due to the inventory effecting ebitda less. And q3 would be unchanged in % but 94 million nok without inventory previously now is 105 million NOK EBITDA and q4 from 133 million nok to 148 million NOK.
A closer look at Renewable Energy (REC-OL.PK) silicon divison
" A closer look at Renewable Energy (REC.OL) silicon divison."
Renewable Energy (Norwegian stock exchange REC-OL.PK) currently trades at a value of somewhere around 9 billion NOK (27 june) and has 12.85% of shares shorted."historical big bet on REC" (source: http://e24.no/boers-og-finans/historisk-stort-veddemaal-paa-rec-fall/20072957 ) The price to book value is around 0.4 and even if they have to close down the wafer segment and write down all as expenses price to book value would still be at 0.5. As I like contrary ideas I will in this first article take a closer look at the silicon segment of REC. If it proves popular I could do the same for the wafer and cell&module segment. When it comes to the silicon part first it should be noted that even when the prices have been falling for polysilicon spot prices the lowest contracted price have been stable now for the last month (at 52.50$ per kg): (source www.pvinsight.com)
While I wont go into detail about the wafer production at REC I will note in this article that the wafer is severly pressured on price and currently more than half of the revenue (in NOK million: 633 internal 841 external but some of the external is silane and electronic grade silicon. Source: q1 2011 report http://www.recgroup.com/en/ir/Reports/2011/First-quarter-2011/) goes to rec wafer. That means that REC have a potential for more sales in silicon in the future if they expand or the wafer section is closed.
Finally this is not a buy recommendation for rec in the short term as there is a legal despute with China sunergy over a wafer contract that is expected a result on in the short term and could influence RECs share prices negative or positive depending on the outcome. (www.pv-tech.org/new/china_sunergy_rec_w...;) Finally its not sure if REC has bottom out or if its still falling more. What this article on the other hand tries to do is investigate closly the silicon part of REC and look if there is a value case there. In the oppinion of the author there is.In this article we will look at the patented protected technological advantage Rec have in its Silicon segment, how diversified the product range is and finally the fair value of the assets in RECsilicon. All suggest that REC currently is traded at very low levels and potential is undervalued.
This article will assume you know basics on how solar cells are made. If you feel unsure of this process you could for example read my amature description of this in my instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/901705-eystei...
Note also I will not discuss the supply & demand discussion in the current article but just purely focus on REC and its silicon division. I believe there is a demand for solar pv and especially now as the prices are falling drastically, but this is another discussion for another article. With those two notes out of the way lets now start the discussion of REC's silicon division:Rec have two production facilities located in USA: Moses Lake in Washington and Butte in Montana. REC acquired these factories from Advanced Silicon Materials Inc owned by the Komatsu. Komatsu before this purchased the factory in Moses Lake from Union Carbide Corporation. This is important to know because REC acquired some patents from these purchases and made strategic choice in what silicon technology to persue.
Patents from Union Carbide:
4292344 Fluidized bed heating process and apparatus
4684513 Zone heating for fluidized bed silane pyrolysis
4818495 Reactor for fluidized bed silane decomposition
5139762 Fluidized bed for production of polycrystalline silicon
5798137 Method for silicon deposition
5810934 Silicon deposition reactor apparatus
Rec also have Komatsus japanese technology of Siemens-like bell jar reactor with silane gass.(Sources:
http://www.wikipatents.com/US-Patent-5810934/silicon-deposition-reactor-apparatus )The article " History of Si Manufacturing" gives a good insight into silicon production http://www.peaksunsilicon.com/storage/technology/History%20of%20Si%20Manufacturing.pdf (this is where i found the patents REC have.)
For the economics of these different products the following article gives a good research base "A Review of the Silicon Material Task " (http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19840020141_1984020141.pdf )
For the reader I have prepared a short summary: Rec uses a simens like process in Butte and Moses lake that's based on the Komatsus technology. They use Silane gass (SiH4) for this and this has advantages and disadvantages. Further more REC choose to continue the work of Union Carbide corporation on a Fluidized bed reactor process and this is both patent protected and have a very competitive production cost. But also this process has advantages and disadvantages. There are also some competing FBR processes that are also patented, Hemlock and MEMC are two companies that hold different type of FBR processes using other gasses than silicon silane (SiH4) and have the potential to compete with REC on its FBR process. But REC is the only firm in the world doing a silane gass FBR process and they have this patent protected. They also have patent on silicon powder dust collection for silane fbr reaction making them even able to sell this as a product. (See later)The main disadvantage to any fbr process is that its quite complex and can be dangerous if not run correctly. For example it can cause explosions: " It is a well established fact that SiCl2 fragments are generated in deposition of silicon from chlorosilanes in poly or Epi reactors, which polymerize into explosive mixtures and deposit in the exhaust ductwork downstream of such reactors. The problem is simply overcome as first shown in US Patent 3594215, by injection of HCl or Cl2 into the exhaust stream to "quench" the polymerization."
(http://www.peaksunsilicon.com/storage/technology/History%20of%20Si%20Manufacturing.pdf )Silane gass is more expensive than chloride hydride, a quick search on the internet on a chinese seller revealed silane sells for 80$ / per kg or 8000$ per tonn. (search was done 26 june 2011)
For Silicon Chloride Hydride the price from one seller quoting a price ranged from 1200-2000$ per tonn. (From online seller at alibaba.com) Obviously these prices are very rough but attleast gives an idea of what the gass prices could be at.
On the other hand silane gass makes more pure silicon."The Komatsu process operated by REC, is the second most prevalent electronic grade polycrystalline silicon technology in 2007. This approach melds as mentioned previously, the Siemens-like batch, bell jar SiH4 deposition reactor developed in Japan by Komatsu, in the early stages of that country's entry into the semiconductor device fabrication field, with the low cost ion-exchange technique for separation of silane from the mixture of chlorosilanes produced in hydrochlorination of metallurgical silicon, developed by Union Carbide. The highest purity EG poly available is in fact produced in this way."(http://www.peaksunsilicon.com/storage/technology/History%20of%20Si%20Manufacturing.pdf)
Also the FBR silane production still has a lot of potential for reduction of prices. A 1980 economical viability report on this at a 1000 mt plant projected cost around 9.66$ per kg.( at the time union Carbide fbr technology http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19840020141_1984020141.pdf page 21)
The two main technologies in use are FBR and SIMENS reactor types. I found 4 producers using FBR type reactors: Wacker Chemie (germany), MEMC Electronic Materials (US), REC (norwegian based but reactors in US) and AE (US). In China as far as I know none use another technology than the Simens process. In Europe as far as I know only Wacker Chemie uses the FBR process. So FBR is very consentrated in USA.
Top 8 silicon producers and what technology they use:
Hemlock Semiconductor (2010: 36 kt) USA. (SIMENS)
Wacker Chemie (2011: 32 kt, Jan 2014: 67 kt) Germany. (SIMENS & FBR)
GCL-Poly (2010: 21 kt, Jan 2012: 46 kt ) Hong Kong. (SIMENS)
OCI (June 2010: 17 kt, Dec 2010: 27 kt, Jan 2012: 42 kt, Oct 2012: 62 kt) South Korea. (SIMENS)
Renewable Energy Corporation ASA (REC) (2010: 17kt)[22] Norway. (Komatsus Reactor – A simens like reactor & FBR and also Floating zone based )
LDK Solar (2010: 15kt)[23] China. (SIMENS)
Tokuyama (2009: 8 kt, Jan 2013: 14 kt) Japan. (SIMENS & & VLD –Vapor-to-Liquid Deposition)
MEMC Electronic Materials (2010: 8 kt, Jan 2013: 18 kt) USA. (SIMENS & FBR)
(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polycrystalline_silicon )Interestingly out of the top 8 a total of 3 use the FBR method. Could this be because this is a superior production method? One company persues another type called vapor to liquid deposition (read more about it here: http://www.solarnenergy.com/research_file/428751.pdf page 11) It also uses either silane SiH4 or Silicon Chloride Hydride SiH3Cl. It promises 10 times faster production than simens and is 5 times more energy efficient. On the other Hand the FBR process is even more energy efficient at around 1/10 of the energy used for a simens reactor. FBR is also a continous process while the other have a start period and end period between cycles.
An indication of the energy consume from a simens reactor process could be: "The Siemens methods consumes about 60~150kWh in manufacturing 1 kg of SoG-Si." (http://www.solarnenergy.com/research_file/428751.pdf page 10)
REC's FBR process uses around "10KWh/kg—an order of magnitude difference." (http://www.pvtech.org/chip_shots_blog/the_view_from_moses_lake_part_ii_rec_silicon_learns_to_go_with_the_granular .) This means that REC have quite an advantage over the simens process in electricty costs.Then there's the handling, something that's simplified when the end-product is basically pelletized material. "Granular polysilicon is a very useful form factor. It's easy to handle, it flows well, we're able to take it out and essentially just classify it, by its visible size, and then load it into bulk containers. So the labor usage and further processing of poly has gone down tremendously. (http://www.pvtech.org/chip_shots_blog/the_view_from_moses_lake_part_ii_rec_silicon_learns_to_go_with_the_granular)
"At the customer receiving end, as they learn to use this form factor, they're now able to get their costs down, because in a lot of cases it's manual loading of crucibles which isn't needed when you have a flowable product."
GCL poly the leader in china has reported under 60 Kwh/kg in its latest report:
(source: http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/attachment/2011051217305817_en.pdf)
So somewhere around 60 kwh/kg seems to be the correct amount.Another aspect is the fact its quite expensive and time consuming to put up a simens reactor factory: "Investment requirements, for a traditional facility, built by Siemens, producing2.000mt. of finished product per year is between euro 300-400mio,and will take min 4 years (including obtaining governmental approvals) to set up in a facility of 90.000m2."(http://www.scribd.com/doc/55988586/Presentation-Teaser-Silicon-2011-SE )
In REC's factory in butte they produce electrical grade silicon by a production method called floating zone method , this produces very pure silicon but it is more expensive and time consuming. (Floating zone information http://www.solarnenergy.com/research_file/428751.pdf page 14)
Next we look at the actual products of Rec Silicon:
Butte produces three products: Simens reactor flat zone silicon, electronic grade silicon and silane gas. Butte primary makes electronic grade silicon with its simens reactor process. This is of higher purity and sold at higher prices than solar grade silicon. Finally the flux in solar grade silicon prices does not to as high degree affect electronic grade silicon.Moses Lake produce four products: Silane gass, simens chunk solar grade polysilicon and Fludized Bed Reactor (FBR) granular silicon. Also sales of silicon powder as a byproduct from FBR Silicon( source http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-35594039_ITM )
Polysilicon:Simens chunks solar grade from moses lake is the industry standard type of solar grade silicon, given that rec uses silane gass it should have a slightly higher purity than simens based reactors, and since rec have patent on this from Komatsus japanese technology process this small advantage should be protected. As we dont know the exact price of the simens chunks solar grade silicon we cannot know if they have a good market position in this. One should note an ideal blend in crucibles to make wafers is by having big simens chunks blended together with granular small balls of silicon from the fbr silicon process that fills all the small pockets of air in the crucible. This gives a lower filling time of 41.2% less at 50/50 granular and simens chunks and 29,4% increase in weight managed to put into a 60kg crucible (82.5 kg into a 60kg crucible) (http://www.recgroup.com/Documents/REC%20Investor%20Presentation%20MAY%202011.pdf investor presentation may page 35)
The Float zone silicon produced at Butte is "typically used for power devices and detector applications." (source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Float-zone_silicon)
The Electronic grade silicon produced with the Komatsu process is very competitive in that its one of the purest electronic grade silicon available. "highest possible electronic grade available." (source: http://www.peaksunsilicon.com/storage/technology/History%20of%20Si%20Manufacturing.pdf )
FBR granular silicon: Have some major advantages and allmost same quality as electronical grade silicon "this is not electronic-grade poly, but it's not that far off." (http://www.pv-tech.org/chip_shots_blog/the_view_from_moses_lake_part_ii_rec_silicon_learns_to_go_with_the_granular)
Silane:The main uses of silane are in the deposition of various silicon-containing films that are essential to the fabrication of integrated circuits, LCD displays and increasingly the enhancement of efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells and production of silicon-based thin film solar cells.
Now lets look at some historical data of REC in its silicon division:
Revenue (NOK MIL)
41 %
2 127
1 063
50 %
54 %
3 033
1 540
51 %
3 943
1 920
49 %
5 245
2 735
52 %
Over the last 6 years the average EBITDA margin have been around 49,5%.
How about labor costs? How many people do the silicon segment include: Butte have around 300 (source: http://recgroup.com/recgroup/operations/Butte/ ) and Moses Lake around 550 (source: http://recgroup.com/recgroup/operations/Moses-Lake/ ) so a total of 850 people are going to produce in 2011 around 17000 (20 tonn per person) Tonn of solar & electric grade silicon and some 2150 MT of silane gas. (2.5 tonn per person.)
Hemlock Semiconductor have around 1000 people for 36000 tonn of production (36t per person) Since both are based in USA I would conclude that REC can get a higher productivity per worker just by increasing production volumes.
Compare this with chinese leader GCL-poly having 8000 workers for 21000 mt (2010) and 3500 MW wafers.
(http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/eng/about/glance_key.php ) It is possible that wages from worker carry an heavier burden on US silicon firms than Chinese. The positive is that GCL-poly reported a first quater 2010 cost of around 35$ per kg.
(http://simuch.com/File/20100824060800.pdf not disclosed if this was cash cost of production) and ldk having a q12011 cost of 39$ per kg with 3% labor cost , 13% electricity cost and 25% deprecation cost based on 10 year straight line deprecation. (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9ODkxOTd8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1 page54)
What about production costs for REC? We only know of this for FBR and it is at 23 cash cost and total cost of 42$ per kg at q3 2010 and target reduction to 17 $ cash cost and 31 $ total cost in q4 2011. Allready in q1 they have a demonstrated cash cost of 18$ per kg FBR silicon. 60% of current silicon at rec is FBR silicon. Some of it is higher graded electronic silicon produced at butte. We know from the 2006 annual report (http://www.recgroup.com/en/ir/Reports/Annual-Reports/2006/ page 44) that butte produced around 2855 tonn electric grade silicon and this was expanded with another 1000 tonn because of debottleneck expansion (http://www.recgroup.com/en/ir/Reports/Annual-Reports/2006/ annual report 2006 page 22) so attleast 3855 tonns of the remaining 7000 (capacity total 17000 for 2011: http://www.recgroup.com/en/recgroup/operations/REC-Silicon/) is electronic grade leaving only 3145 solar grade based on the komatsus simens like reactor process. We can conclude that REC have very competitive solar grade silicon prices when 76% of all solar grade silicon is fbr silicon 22,6% is electronic grade silicon leaving a more weak 24% of all solar grade silicon (only 18.5% of total silicon produced) to higher cost structures.Silane:
When it comes to the silane gass sales as mentioned earlier a quick search online on a chinese retailer revealed 80$ / per kg or 8000$ per tonn (not a very reliable measuring method I know but the best I have) most likly this is less for mass volumes of silane but even at half price 4000$ per tonn this could generate a bit of revenue for rec with target sales of excess silane gass of 2,150 MT for 2011. (http://www.recgroup.com/en/products/silane-gases/)
Ldk in a recent quarterly report estimates global market to be around 3500 MT. And they estimate a growth of 25-30% per year. (meaning REC have a big chunk of the world market at 61,4%) (source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9ODkxOTd8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1What do we know of the contracts REC have on its sales of polysilicon?
" REC Silicon sells most of the production volumes under long term contracts, and delivered silane gas and polysilicon to approximately 40 external customers in 2010. The top five external customers accounted for approximately 33 percent of the total sales revenue in 2010, compared to approximately 39 percent in 2009. Polysilicon sales to REC companies represented 40 percent of the total sales revenue in 2010."
(source annual 2010 rec report http://www.recgroup.com/en/ir/Reports/Annual-Reports/Annual-Report-2010/)We also know of one major contacts that ties up silicon:
"Oslo, March 21, 2007: Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) has entered into a long-term agreement for the supply of polysilicon to SUMCO TECHXIV Corporation (STC), a subsidiary of the world's second largest electronic wafer producer. Under the agreement, REC will deliver polysilicon to STC worth approximately NOK 4.8 billion over the next 7 years." http://www.recgroup.com/view?feed=R/136555/PR/200703/1113405.xml
The silane gass is tied up in contracts "The agreements, most of which run through 2014, are structured as take-or-pay contracts with pre-determined prices and volumes for the entire contract period. The contracts have an approximate value of USD 1 billion (~NOK 5 billion). Additional volumes are contemplated under the agreements and may be accessed by the customers within the contracts framework." (source: http://www.solarfeeds.com/solar-stocks/2410-rec-asa-secures-nok-5-billion-in-silane-sales-contracts ) This should give REC an exellent revenue stream from the silane gass part of the buisness.We know in the past REC have supplied silicon to Sun Power and could possible be doing it now as an undisclosed partner: " For the year 2007, the contract calls for SunPower to purchase approximately $20 million of silicon ingots from REC SiTech. This contract builds on previous ingot supply agreements and purchase orders between the two companies. SunPower's silicon supply for 2007 remains sufficient to produce 110 megawatts of cell production. " http://us.sunpowercorp.com/about/newsroom/press-releases/?relID=215060 )
And as mention previously REC can sell the silicon powder it have as a byproduct. " The contract has a value in excess of $500 million...and runs for seven years from 2009 through 2015, REC said. " (This is a byproduct also in the simens process) http://www.youroilandgasnews.com/news_item.php?newsID=13457
When it comes to managment they have ties with hydro. The current manager of the silicon department Tore Torvund used to work for statoilhydro then later hydro leading its energy & oil department. The president Ole Enger had several leadership positions in Hydro during 1986 til 1991. Øyvind Hasaas lead of HR also have a hydro background: Prior to joining REC Øyvind held several executive management positions in Hydro, last as Head of Hydro Industrial and Business Parks. The Cheif Legal officer Kristine Ryssdal also have a hydro past. Interestingly hydro produces the aluminum that is used for the backend of solar modules. The president Ole Enger also have a silicon background in his position as president of ELKEM that was bought by chinese bluestars. (http://www.elkem.com/eway/default.aspx?pid=242&trg=MainLeft_6886&MainLeft_6886=6271:34459::0:6892:6:::0:0 ) Another interesting connection can be found in the owner of REC ORKLA, where the managment ceo Bjørn M. Wiggen who used to work under Ludvik Sandnes (then ceo of Orkla) sold Elkem to chinese bluestar because of a phone call from Ludvik now working as a senior advicor for Royal Bank of Scotland. Wiggen have been task to see if there is a possible buyer of REC and have not ruled out a sell of Renewable Energy. (Source: http://www.dn.no/forsiden/naringsliv/article2058423.ece in norwegian)Finally when it comes to technological advantage in 2010 rec has around 35 patents granted and 200 patents pending. "REC has introduced a series of innovations to the solar industry, and continues to build on an IPR portfolio counting around 35 patents granted and more than 200 patents pending. Key patents and patent applications cover REC's production technologies for silane gas, Siemens reactors, fluidized bed reactors and polysilicon deposition, ingot crystallization, wafer sawing, washing, singulation, inline doping of solar cells and REC's future cell and module processes and designs." (source annual 2010 rec report http://www.recgroup.com/en/ir/Reports/Annual-Reports/Annual-Report-2010/)
It seems clear the four FBR producers have created a high barrier for other entries into FBR production. Finally a perfect match for rec is its patent on using silane gass for FBR process and at the same time beeing a dominating force in selling excess silane having a 61,4% of the world market in this growing segment.
The potential for further reduction in FBR prices seems clear. As the capacity expands tonn per worker will increase and wages total cost will be reduced. Further expansion also costs less than simens expansion and requires less energy to be used. An advantage that can grow larger as energy potential becomes more expensive. Finally another aspect is that the FBR have actually been in ramp up even in 2010 and now in 2011 we finally are starting to see a high percentage of high grade fbr silicon. The yield for higher grade silicon has been on an increasing trend with one exemption of the power failure in q3 2010 that caused yield of high grade silicon to drop. From q1 2010 yield rate of 64% high grade silicon its currently in q1 2010 at 88%. A patent on dust collection for the FBR process means even this byproduct can be sold and is yet another advantage to the REC FBR silicon process.
When it comes to the price of this asset it was an 1.7 billion $ investment or 9,35 billion NOK for the 10500 MT fbr silane and silane gass facilites. A total of 24 reactors each producing an average of 437.5MT per year. (source http://www.pv-tech.org/chip_shots_blog/the_view_from_moses_lake_part_i_rec_silicon_makes_a_big_solar-poly_bet_on_a) Compare this patented technology taking some 2-3 years to ramp up with the current share price implying a value of 8,944 billion NOK the silicon plant alone justifies looking closer into rec as an investment. (share price of 8.970 on june 24 closing) And also note this does not even include silicon I plant at Moses Lake or the whole of the Butte plant. The share value currently represent just the FBR plant alone.
Also one may note that REC has recently announced plans to expand capacity with another 10000 MT and this time the cost will be around 600-800 million $. (60 to 80$ million per 1000t) It will be cheaper because they allready have the support buildings needed. (source: http://basinfarmer.com/?p=1668 )
This should be compared with around 428-570 million $ per 2000 mt for a simens reactor expansion and the fact that deprication of plant value carry a significant part of the cost of silicon production. (source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/55988586/Presentation-Teaser-Silicon-2011-SE )They are currently waiting for a decicion on supply of power to the FBR plant. "the company is waiting for news on its request from the PUD for a power sales contract. A decision is expected in October. " ( source: http://www.columbiabasinherald.com/news/articleec88182c-8309-11e0-8d42-001cc4c03286.html )
Just visualy looking at page 37 of the may investor presentation for rec ( source:http://www.recgroup.com/Documents/REC%20Investor%20Presentation%20MAY%202011.pdf) one can see deprication alone accounts for around 40% of q32010 costs and around 30% of Q42011 fbr silicon cost. This is a major advantage for REC to be able to reduce the cost on just expanding cheaper than simens reactor based technology
Disclosure: I am long REC-OL.PK, HSOL, SOL, PWER, JASO.
Additional disclosure: I have never been employed at REC. I am a student of law and at the same time working part time. I have a master degree in psychology. My hobby for stocks started around 2 years ago and some 20 stock books ago. I would be interested in doing analytical work. All information found in this article was found just searching the internet for information and articles.
STP, CSIQ, HSOL, TSL, YGE, FSLR, CSUN, SOL Summer solstice tomorrow 20 june. Is it finaly time for the solar energy sector to shine again? Jun 18, 2012
TSL good article on solar power company net debt http://bit.ly/u2Mhg8 but they should show REC used all cash flow for net debt payment Dec 13, 2011
A good article on solar power company net debt http://bit.ly/u2Mhg8 but they should show REC used all cash flow for net debt payment Dec 13, 2011
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Blood Drive - The Clarkstown Reformed Church will be hosting a Blood Drive from 11:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Sunday August 12, 2012 in the fellowship hall. The New York Blood Drive Center will be offering an incentive of 2 METS TICKETS at CITI FIELD for your blood donation!
Blood Drive - Clarkstown Reformed Church
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Results 1 to 2 of 2
- 09-15-2013, 12:57 PM Thread Author #1
LED goes red/orange for 10sec.
My friend gived me and HTC One V and he said if i get it to work i can have it
He told me that one day when he woke up one day his phone was " Dead "
When i plug it in to charge LED ont the top goes red/orange for 10 sec and then it turns off
and nothing happends afterward and then phone doesn't respond to anything.
( If i try to connect it by USB to computer same thing happends )
If you have any idea what could happend pleae help me - 09-22-2013, 12:46 AM #2
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text: Wishful thinking not needed here. Both ONCE UPON A TIME films are being restored as we speak and expect a 2003 release date. I've heard that IN AMERICA also has a 2-hour documentary with it but don't take this to heart. Just an early rumor on the documentary but the films ARE coming.


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Copy protection hard drive
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FRESNO, Calif. -- Organization to Hire Gameday Staff for 2011 Season at Chukchansi Park
The Fresno Grizzlies, Triple-A affiliate of the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants, will hold their annual job fair at Chukchansi Park to fill open gameday positions for the 2011 baseball season. The job fair will take place on Saturday, February 5th from 10:00am to 12:00pm on the main concourse of the stadium.
The Grizzlies' 73-game home schedule will begin on April 5th and run through August 28th. Various employment opportunities include: ticket takers, guest services, security, box office, team store, video crew, Ovations food service, promotional team, housekeeping, lifeguards, bat boys, grounds crew and more. Ovations FanFare will be responsible for hiring food service employees, such as concessions and catering staff.
The Grizzlies and Ovations combine to employ roughly 350 gameday staff each season. While there are a number of returning employees, there are still many open positions that will be filled through the annual job fair.
"The ability to offer several hundred seasonal jobs to area residents is a great opportunity for the Grizzlies to give back to the Valley community," said Grizzlies President Chris Cummings. "Our gameday staff members are our direct connection to the fans, and we look forward to bringing friendly, excited team members in every year to help us make Grizzlies baseball the best experience possible."
Applicants should be fun, energetic and dependable, all while contributing to the fan-friendly environment and experience provided at Chukchansi Park. Those interested in attending should enter the stadium through Gate 2 on H Street. For more information please call the Grizzlies front office at 559.320.4487.
The Fresno Grizzlies open 2011 play with an exhibition contest against Fresno Pacific University on Tuesday, April 5th, then begin their 10th Pacific Coast League season at Chukchansi Park on Thursday, April 7th, 2011 when they welcome the Las Vegas 51s to downtown Fresno. Season ticket and mini-plan packages are now available at the Chukchansi Park Box Office or by calling 559-320-HITS.
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Blogs »
Sequester pain beyond air travel
When the sequester federal spending cuts forced flight delays because of the furlough of air traffic controllers, the normally deadlocked Congress acted in less than a week to give the Federal Aviation Administration flexibility
Read More »CNN's Lack of Diversity Starting to Show
CNN is still a laughing stock. The network's botched coverage of the Boston Marathon bombings has been golden fodder for late night talk show hosts and the network's competitors. Even President Obama took a
Read More »HBCU alumni missing from BOG
On July 1, when newly elected members of the UNC Board of Governors begin their four-year term, pay close attention to the blatantly unbalanced selections made. For the first time in many years, there
Read More »Ol' Boys Boards
Combined, women and minorities have spending power in the many trillions. From a business standpoint, companies should be knocking one another over to cater to these groups, including by making sure women, blacks, browns
Read More »Save the Joel name
The city's move to unload the Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum and Bowman Gray Stadium makes good financial sense. The venues aren't cash cows, and long gone are the days when local municipalities had
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Pictures of OPI's New Pirates of the Caribbean-Inspired Polishes
Pictures of OPI's New Pirates of the Caribbean-Inspired Polishes
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A pearly light gray.
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Scientific Principles
Naturalist writers apply scientific principles and methods to the writing of fiction. Like scientists conducting experiments, they introduce readers to a character or characters and then set the events of the novel in motion to see how the characters' inherited traits and environmental influences will determine their outcomes. In some cases, an unexpected opportunity is also introduced to give the character a chance to take it or to ignore it. Given extreme circumstances or desires or needs, characters make decisions they would not otherwise make. The naturalist writer believes that the characters' true natures emerge in these situations.
Another scientific idea used in naturalist writing is conditioned behavior. Characters learn how to behave when they are exposed repeatedly to the same environmental influences. A character such as Henry in The Red Badge of Courage quickly learns how to behave in order to survive in the extreme circumstances of war. Buck in The Call of the Wild is first conditioned to hate people but later learns to trust the right man.
Darwinian processes are sometimes evident in naturalist writing. In Sister Carrie, for example, Carrie is inherently stronger than Hurstwood; as a result of his weakness, he abandons all of his comforts and ultimately commits suicide, while Carrie enjoys a successful stage career and self-reliance. Society is unforgiving and harsh...
(The entire section is 522 words.)
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Source: Literary Movements for Students, ©2013 Gale Cengage. All Rights Reserved. Full copyright.


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Grammys 2013: Jack White Drops F-Bomb During 'Love Interruption' Performance
UPDATED: White appeared to sing "f--- me" during the live show, though CBS claims he actually said "fight me"
Jack White appeared to drop an F-bomb on the Grammys on Sunday night, but CBS claims he didn't.
White sang what sounded like the F-word during his performance of "Love Interruption" with Ruby Amanfu during the show, which aired live from the Staples Center on the East Coast. While the lyrics to their song don't include the words "f--- me," it appeared that White and/or Amanfu added them in during their live performance.
Many Grammy viewers immediately took to social media to note the apparent utterance of the swear word.
PHOTOS: Grammy Awards 2013 Red Carpet Arrivals
But Martin Franks, executive vp planning, policy and government affairs at CBS, insists that the F-word was not sung during White and Amanfu's performance and that the network's editors have listened to the performance multiple times on state-of-the-art equipment to verify that. He says the word that was sung was "fight."
"We had 10 editors, and three people on site, and all are experienced, all with multiple Grammy, multiple Big Brother, multiple Tony experience, experience with doing these delays," he told The Hollywood Reporter. "They went through all of the rehearsals. They have prepared meticulously. And not a single one of them heard anything other than 'fight.'"
CBS executives say they were so confident that it was "fight," they did not edit it for the later broadcast on the West Coast. CBS declined to provide video of the song to include with this story.
Later in the telecast, after Mumford & Sons won album of the year, one of the band members also said the F-word, which was caught by CBS censors. The show airs on a 10-second delay.
Last Sunday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco dropped the F-bomb on CBS' live coverage of the Super Bowl, which airs without a delay and is not censored. After the Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers by a score of 34-31 in the Super Bowl, Flacco -- the game's MVP -- exclaimed, "This is f---ing awesome," on live TV while embracing teammate Marshal Yanda.
While the Parents Television Council blasted CBS for letting the language air uncensored, CBS Sports chairman Sean McManus told The Hollywood Reporter in an interview last week that that's the nature of live events.
"It's unfortunate, but in the heat of battle sometimes it happens," he said. "We try to avoid it, but sometimes it happens in live television."
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text:
1954 Harley Davidson Panhead Anniversary Model
1200cc Panhead motor
Perfect frame
Lots of aftermarket parts, but they are of good quality
Runs great. Motor is very quiet.
Original Flanders brand handlebars
OEM original Anniversary Medallion on front fender
Very smooth riding bike. Needs nothing.
For sale or trade. Let us know what you have for trade! Easy financing available. Call Tim at 2077106699 or email [Email Dealer]
Thanks for looking!
Price: $18,995


text:
John John Florence (HAW) 20, current World No.15 coming into the Quiksilver Pro France, started on a fast hollow righthander in the opening seconds of his Round 4 matchup against Mick Fanning (AUS) and Michel Bourez (PYF) 27. The talented Hawaiian exited the barrel beautifully to score an excellent 8.00 point ride which eventually won him a ticket for the quarter-finals.
Freestyle surfing great Clay Marzo and his mastery of the waves, as well as his life with Asperger's Syndrome, are the subject of "Just Add Water," a biography by Robert Yehling. The book is scheduled to be published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt in 2014.
The book will feature Marzo's rise to greatness as one of the most unique and gifted surfers ever, as well as his lifelong struggle to deal with everyday life because of what was diagnosed as Asperger's Syndrome, a developmental "re-wiring" of the brain, in 2007.
The Quiksilver Pro France saw action resume this morning in France (last nite for Hawaii) with the third round of competition at the main site of La Graviere after four consecutive lay days due to small surf on offer. An expected 4-6Ft swell built overnight is producing quality barrels today at the iconic La Graviere in Hossegor.
Event No.8 of 10 on the 2013 ASP World Championship Tour, the Quiksilver Pro France will play a vital role in both the ASP World Title race and the requalification campaigns of surfers in the Elite Top34.
Video highlights Red Bull Quintang Shootout
With typhoon Usagi spinning clouds, rain showers and worst of all wind at us in Hangzhou, the surf conditions were….challenging. None the less, the surfing was world class, the judging was spot on and the comp an overwhelming success.
Individual Gold Medalists Are Hawaii's Honolua Blomfield In The
Junior's Under-18, South Africa's Simone Robb In The Open Women's And France's Antoine Delpero In The Open Men's. Team France Wins The ISA Aloha Cup
Following an amazing week of great waves and exciting surfing performances, the 2013 ISA World Longboard Championship, in historic Huanchaco, Peru, is officially over.
"Oh yea, this one was fun to uncover and look at this morning. I'm supposed to stay off my feet a week to let this heal properly. Let this be a lesson sun n' surf fans. 4 cancers taken out in two months. This one over my Achilles tendon is from not putting sun screen on the back of your legs all the way to your ankles (not like I used sun screen back when I got all this) ..BUT YOU KIDS SURE SHOULD!! USE YOUR SCREEN!!!!!!! This could have been on my face, yikes! Sorry if you were eating when you saw this".
Benjamin Sanchis returns with his latest episode of "Where's Sancho?" It's been a while, but Sancho delivers us through some heavy Nias barrels. Joining Sancho are Alain Riou, Koby Abberton, Tai Graham, Diego Santos Boniglioli and Antony Dachi. The pits are sick and the tubes do spit. Film and Edited by Pietro l.Franca with work by Antonio Zanella and Marvin Laurrie.
After waiting a while @john_john_florence and I finally got the balls to navigate our way out as we got to the line up the sky parted it was weird a little hole only over the line up you couldn't see out and you couldn't see in but the line up was clear. As we got closer a monster came in and Flee was on it he barely made it to the bottom and then just fell back the monster exploded on him he came out of the explosion laying back some how stood up and made it. @john_john_florence said "that gave me the shivers".
The ASP World Title Race resumed this morning on the opening day of the Quiksilver Pro France, with the world's best surfers taking on clean 3-4Ft A-frames at the back-up location of Seignosse Le Penon.
Event No.8 of 10 on the 2013 ASP World Championship Tour, the Quiksilver Pro France showcases professional surfing's heroes in some of the best beachbreaks on the planet. With only two more events left this year, both World Title contenders and surfers outside the Top22 consider the Quiksilver Pro France with the utmost importance. GO LIVE HERE
Skipper Jimmy Spithill and Oracle Team USA won the America's Cup on Wednesday with one of the greatest comebacks in sports history.
Spithill steered Oracle's space-age, 72-foot catamaran to its eighth straight victory, speeding past Dean Barker and Emirates Team New Zealand in the winner-take-all Race 19 on San Francisco Bay to keep the oldest trophy in international sports in the United States.
Page 8 of 103


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Magazine Article | January 1, 2003
Integrator Captures Sales With Digital CCTV
One security project leads to an integrator installing digital closed-circuit TV (CCTV) systems at 67 retail locations.
In 1995 while working for ADT Security Services (Boca Raton, FL), Chuck Hall was servicing burglary and fire systems for the Austin, TX locations of a thrift store chain. That same year Hall began studying digital video equipment because he saw the impact it would make on prosecuting retail theft. "With digital video systems, you don't have to scan through a videotape to find the time of a particular incident," he explained. "Instead, the video data is saved on a hard drive which enables you to search by time, date, or even an instance of motion detection."
Fast forward to the year 1997. Hall is now president of Striker Systems, Inc. (Round Rock, TX), an integrator of digital and analog video security systems. His company is bidding on a job to update the VCRs and low-resolution (i.e. 330 lines of resolution) CCTV (closed-circuit TV) cameras at 14 of those same thrift store locations. On average, the stores were experiencing a 15% loss rate and each store was storing hundreds of video surveillance tapes.
Hall's strategy for winning the project was simple: show the client how much better a digital video system is compared to even the best analog system. His tactic worked. "One of the reasons our proposal was more expensive than our competitors' was because the digital video recorders [DVRs] we were pitching cost twice as much as the best commercial VCRs," he explained. "Because of our higher cost, it took a year for the customer to finally give us the OK to go ahead with the installation."
Combine Digital Video With High-Resolution Cameras
Most of the thrift stores are about 60,000 square feet and require 4 cash register cameras and 12 surveillance cameras. Striker installed Samsung CCTV (Carrollton, TX) TD 100 color cameras, which have between 380 and 570 lines of resolution. "When you watch a typical video surveillance tape on TV of a guy robbing a store, you can barely see his face," said Hall. "With our systems, you can not only see his face, you can tell if he brushed his teeth in the morning."
The cameras are connected to the store's Samsung DW-PRO-4316P networked DVR that records at 30 frames per second (FPS). (An analog recorder offers 3 FPS.) Using the DVR, security personnel can view 16 cameras in real time. The DVRs also have a motion detection feature. So, once a camera detects motion, the DVR will automatically record more frames per second from that particular camera. The more FPS, the more video there is of a perpetrator.
"Each networked DVR is assigned a specific IP [Internet protocol] address to enable security personnel to remotely log on and monitor cameras or adjust camera settings [e.g. lighting, color, hue]," Hall said. "We also installed Network Video Technologies [Redwood City, CA] power amplifiers throughout each store's network to ensure signal strength over the long distances of cable."
Eliminate Storage Space For Videotapes
Of course, all of that video data needs stored somewhere. Hall said one week of video from 16 cameras requires nearly 240 GB of storage when running high frame rates. But, the DW-PRO-4316P units came equipped with only 30 GB hard drives. "We set the digital recorders to record below 3.5 FPS at night to save on drive space," he explained. "The system starts recording at high FPS only when there is motion detected." This setup allowed each store to save two to four weeks of video on their hard drives. The digital recorders also have built-in CD burners so the stores can save data on CD-Rs instead of videotapes.
Better Resolution = Better Security = Less Theft
It took approximately three days to install each store's system. Striker project managers installed the cameras, power supplies, and DVRs at each site. Subcontracted "wire pullers" then ran the cable. Hall estimates each store required three hours of training on the new CCTV systems. The security manager of a store is usually Striker's primary contact.
Once the new CCTV systems were installed, the stores' loss rates decreased to 3%. Conversely, the stores experienced an increase in the number of prosecutions. Striker's success with the Austin facilities prompted the thrift store chain to list the integrator as a preferred vendor for video surveillance, security, and GPS (global positioning system) equipment on its Web site.
Become A Preferred Vendor
After three years of using these systems, the Austin stores upgraded to DVRs that offer 240 FPS for recording and 480 FPS for viewing. The new systems have hard drives with up to 320 GB of storage capacity. The stores also chose to interface the CCTV systems with their POS (point of sale) terminals. With this integration, the transaction amount of the cash register is displayed on the surveillance video so security managers can see if a cashier is charging the right amount.
During this update process, Hall was invited to a retreat for executives of the thrift store chain. Only preferred vendors that dealt with more than three stores were invited to display their products at this retreat. "I had five of my staff at our booth, and there was always a line to talk to us," Hall elaborated. "After the retreat, we received calls from stores in 25 states wanting DVR systems. So far, we've worked with 67 of the thrift store chain's stores."


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Collapsing 4D Star Could Have Spawned Universe
There could be a gaping hole in the Big Bang theory. Or rather, a giant, colossal black-hole caused by the collapse of a four-dimensional star. One of the main problems with the Big Bang is that thBy: plokiju | Comments: 41 | Views: 1849 | Votes: 5 | Shared: 0
Leaked: Sep-27-2013 in Science and Technology -
Emotions in journalism
A smiling face of a now murdered child, a pretty young woman disfigured in an accident, family members mourning the loss of a loved one, soldiers portrayed as fathers and husbands, hungry pBy: Media File | Comments: 6 | Views: 3354 | Votes: 0 | Shared: 0
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States | Leaked: Nov-4-2013 in Citizen Journalism -
Another Blow To The US Dollar
Time Bomb of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu, South Korea October 31, 2013 "Information Clearing House - The 22nd World Energy Congress, one of the most important meetings of the enBy: Media File | Comments: 8 | Views: 921 | Votes: 0 | Shared: 0
Location: Humanes, Castille La Mancha, Spain | Leaked: Nov-1-2013 in Other News -
Ron Paul confirms American evil empire will soon collapse into dustbin of history like the Russian one did
Former US Rep. Ron Paul doesn't seen a rosy future ahead for America. In fact, he sees a repeat of recent history - though not US history - on the horizon, writes NaturalNews. In an interview wiBy: Media File | Comments: 3 | Views: 270 | Votes: 0 | Shared: 0
Location: Petrivs'ke, Luhans'ka, Ukraine | Leaked: Oct-24-2013 in Conspiracy, Propaganda -
Dark Matter in the Singulosynthesis Universe
The Current Scientific Consensus Composition of the Universe 4.9% - ordinary matter 26.8% - dark matter 68.3% - dark energy (Note: Totals are from Wikipedia and cross referenced with a fewBy: vickster339 | Comments: 15 | Views: 781 | Votes: 0 | Shared: 0
Location: Spokane, Washington, United States | Leaked: Oct-11-2013 in Science and Technology -
The Absurdity of Life without God
William Lane Craig Why on atheism life has no ultimate meaning, value, or purpose, and why this view is unlivable. The Necessity of God and Immortality Man, writes Loren Eiseley, is the CosmiBy: justanother0863 | Comments: 91 | Views: 3674 | Votes: 1 | Shared: 0
Location: United States | Leaked: Sep-22-2013 in Religion -
Event Horizon
First yoursay in awhile.. sorry been afk regarding these Got a litte Rusty. Well its Israels 60th birthday and shes still going strong even with all the haters in the world. It seems now that the jewsBy: Dat1111 | Comments: 74 | Views: 9545 | Votes: 16 | Shared: 2
Leaked: May-15-2008 in Your Say -
Crossing the Event Horizon- Another Cycle Begins - p. 3 of 3
.By: JihadKiller1s1k | Comments: 8 | Views: 6268 | Votes: 2 | Shared: 0
Leaked: Feb-21-2009 in Other -
Crossing the Event Horizon- Another Cycle Begins - p. 2 of 3
.By: JihadKiller1s1k | Comments: 3 | Views: 6475 | Votes: 1 | Shared: 0
Leaked: Feb-21-2009 in Other -
Crossing the Event Horizon- Another Cycle Begins - p. 1 of 3
.By: JihadKiller1s1k | Comments: 15 | Views: 6227 | Votes: 1 | Shared: 0
Leaked: Feb-21-2009 in Other -
Online Friendships, Myth or Reality
This is a quick yoursay i did from my office regarding some of the friendships that have been made here on live leak. Some of the people i have met here on live leak i consider to be friends. Even outBy: BIGLOUBRUNO | Comments: 197 | Views: 1877 | Votes: 27 | Shared: 0
Location: Erie, Pennsylvania, United States | Leaked: Sep-28-2012 in Your Say -
Sharpening tools and stuff-nod to EH2012 and Flashovr
5 minute boring Macguyver,Red Green type of ramble about sharpening stuff.I meant scythe not sickle,I always mix up the two.Rendered 3 different times to make it fit here.2nd try missed it by 3 MB,dayBy: SSstormtr00per | Comments: 24 | Views: 2523 | Votes: 2 | Shared: 0
Leaked: Mar-5-2012 in Other Items from Liveleakers
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