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« Combining forecasts | Main | International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items »
January 08, 2007
Recession probability
Yet another tool to try to assess the probability of a recession.
Betting exchange Tradesports is now offering a contract based on whether the U.S. economy goes into recession during 2007 (under their Financial - Economic Numbers category). Although trading so far has been quite thin, bettors up to this point are not putting that probability higher than 20%. The above graph should be a live link, so you can check back on this page from time to time for updates. You might also want to revisit Political Calculations to update Jonathan Wright's yield curve calculations.
Given the concerns expressed by Stephen Kirchner about the original details of the Tradesports contract, I suggested to Tradesports a tighter definition of what it means for the U.S. to go into a recession, which they've now adopted. The current contract declares that the U.S. will be said to have experienced a recession in 2007 if the Commerce Department numbers as reported on February 15, 2008 show 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between 2006:Q4 and 2007:Q4.
Of course, here at Econbrowser we will make a formal call as to whether or not the economy has gone into a recession on the basis of my own recession probability index.
Technorati Tags: macroeconomics, recession, recession probability, prediction markets
Posted by James Hamilton at January 8, 2007 08:40 AM
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» The Probability of a Recession from Club for Growth
According to TradeSports.com, the odds of a recession occurring in 2007 are approximately 18-24% (on extremely thin volume). EconoBrowser has more.... [Read More]
Tracked on January 8, 2007 10:06 AM
» Por que nĂŁo há um destes aqui? from De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum
Eu nunca entendo: se somos todos individualistas (hipnotizados por Washington, claro), globalizantes e neoliberais (malvados e feios), por que é que não existe um "Tradesports" aqui como nos EUA? Além de ser bom para apostadores, pode ser excelente ... [Read More]
Tracked on January 8, 2007 10:18 AM
The Tradesports contract was quite wrong about the Democrats taking over the Senate in the last election so I don't know how much faith we should put in its predictions.
Posted by: Joseph at January 8, 2007 10:18 AM
So if the bettors are wrong, Joseph, why don't you try to take their money?
Posted by: JDH at January 8, 2007 11:45 AM
I didn't say they were always wrong. I was just saying that sometimes they are wrong and there's no way to tell in advance when they are right or wrong.
Posted by: Joseph at January 8, 2007 11:54 AM
Isn't it illegal for Americans to participate in this market, now?
Posted by: Aaron Krowne at January 8, 2007 02:48 PM
Pure idiocy that JDH tries to pose as economics.
What a bunch of people who bet online think may or may not have any relationship with reality.
By JDH's logic, all those who held the NASDAQ above 5000 with their "bets" were "right". Ridiculous.
This post is unworthy of the good work that Menzie Chinn does here, and is undermines yet further whatever small credibility JDH may have left as a useful thinker.
Posted by: RN at January 8, 2007 03:53 PM
I agree, RN. It\'s embarrassing.
Posted by: econdoc at January 8, 2007 04:02 PM
I don't think JDH is off the wall on this. There is some evidence that the estimates of large numbers of people can be more accurate than the estimates of a small number of "experts."
My point was that you have to accept that this is only one piece of data and that there is no guarantee that the herd is always right.
Posted by: Joseph at January 8, 2007 05:55 PM
Ah, my old friend RN, on whom we can always count for some angry words, if not analysis.
So you knew the NASDAQ was going to plunge in 2000? That's great. But can you tell us something actually useful, like where it will end up at the end of 2007? Or are you only good at predicting the stock market 7 years ago?
You can brag about what you claim to have known 7 years ago, but I have no way of verifying whether you actually profited from that call. But I do know your track record for what you were predicting 7 months ago. On May 7, 2006, when oil prices were at $70 a barrel, I wrote a post titled Have oil prices peaked?, in which I laid out some of the factors that might produce a decline in oil prices. You entered a comment on that post at that time, in which you described my reasoning as "very simplistic and not very usable analysis."
So I apologize, but I find myself doubting your claim to be so much better than everybody else at predicting the future.
Of course, if you really could predict stock prices or oil prices or recessions, you could become a millionaire on these markets you hold in disdain. But that would be beneath your great talents, would it not? So much more fun just to brag about how much better your understanding of everything is, and use harsh words to criticize anyone whose views might differ from your own, rather than to actually place your own money on the line, as do the people whose understanding you hold in contempt.
Posted by: JDH at January 8, 2007 06:33 PM
I think 20% is about right for the chance of recession. I believe the biggest part of the risk is the Fed holding on too long waging a war against pseudo-backward-looking-energy-influenced inflaton numbers. I don't see it as lunacy to look at a number of forecasts (i.e. tradesports) and use it to help analyze and form and opinion. Thanks for pointing it out.
Posted by: drbrightside at January 8, 2007 06:58 PM
Thanks for setting the rude fellow straight, Professor.
I find Dr. Roubini's logic compelling, and think it's a done deal that we'll have a recession beginning this year. I'd consider making a substantial bet on Tradesports towards that end, but have a much bigger bet -- everything that I've got and continue to get -- on gold mining stock mutual funds (VGPMX and UNWPX).
It will be an interesting 2007 and 2008, at the very least.
Posted by: jg at January 8, 2007 08:06 PM
Follow up to last commment. Good article and charts in WSJ about inverted yield curve and predicting recession.
"Another forecasting model -- developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists using only the 10-year/three-month spread -- puts the chances of a recession in 12 months at just under 40%."
"A recent survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal pegged the chances of a recession within the next 12 months at 27%."
Posted by: drbrightside at January 8, 2007 08:27 PM
Thanks to JDH for picking up on this contract. I don't understand the critical comments posted about it. My understanding is that contracts like these do quite well in predicting election outcomes relative to surveys of voter intentions, so it will be interesting to see how this contract performs given the abysmal performance of most alternatives (eg, my recollection is that the Fed's Suvey of Professional Forecasters shows most economists struggle to identify a recession in real-time, let alone predict a downturn).
Posted by: kdd at January 8, 2007 09:33 PM
Speaking of your recession probability index, what is it reporting now? We'd love to know monthly updates.
Posted by: charts at January 8, 2007 09:36 PM
Actually, charts, it's by definition a quarterly series. Next update should be Jan 31.
Posted by: JDH at January 8, 2007 09:55 PM
Having skimmed your paper, I wonder whether you couldn't turn out a monthly toy version. If the markets weren't opening in eight hours I might reread the thing and answer my own question. Alas, they are, so I'm off to bed.
FWIW, "true value" of that contract could be 20 and it could still be a buy at 24 if you think headline data is due for temporary weakness. Selling now is not just predicting that the probability of thus-defined "recession" is less than 20%, but that forthcoming data will improve. The time to short is when things look worst, right before they turn.
My suspicion is that that time will have arrived in just about a quarter, which is to say that I think 06Q4 GDP will be weak.
Posted by: wcw at January 8, 2007 10:36 PM
I'd consider making a substantial bet on Tradesports towards that end, but have a much bigger bet -- everything that I've got and continue to get -- on gold mining stock mutual funds (VGPMX and UNWPX).
The price of gold is strongly determined by the federal government. Invest in such instruments with extreme caution. They change the rules at the drop of a hat.
Posted by: DickF at January 9, 2007 04:06 AM
GDP in Q4 weak? Hows come? The PCE stuff so far has been really good. Other components, such as inventories and capital spending, will be a drag, but weakness elsewhere is what it will take to stave off a GDP reading above 3%, given what we've seen from consumption spending.
Posted by: kharris at January 9, 2007 05:20 AM
As for Tradesport doubters, this isn't a subject about which we need to lean on single data points - got the mid-term election wrong of whatever. There is actually a body of research on the subject. "The Wisdom of Crowds" offers a good starting place for those not interested in reading journal articles.
I frankly don't know what the record of prediction markets is on recession forecasts, but it seems we are about to get a new data point. The problem, I'd guess, is that recessions are sufficiently rare that it's hard to put together a record on whether prediction markets make decent recession calls. One thing I'd like to know, but am too lazy to find out for myself, is whether betting markets on recession contain any information not available in (give answers different from) other methods of recession forecasting.
Posted by: kharris at January 9, 2007 05:32 AM
Actually, we have much more than 1 data point, even just using the 2006 election. Tradesports correctly predicted the outcome in 32 out of 32 of the individual Senate races. The one thing they got wrong, to which Joseph refers, was the composite contract that the Democrats would win the Senate. There can be a 60% probability the Democrats will win Maryland, and a 60% probability they will win Missouri, and a 60% probability they will win Tennessee, and a 60% probability they will win Virginia, but a much less than 50% probability they will win all four.
In fact, we did not know for sure even the morning after the election whether the Democrats had indeed carried the Senate. It is a well-established common fallacy of the human mind that we often end up concluding that the event that was observed (in this case, the Democrats winning control of the Senate) must have had a high probability of occurring.
Posted by: JDH at January 9, 2007 06:11 AM
After reading the original post my first thought was why doesn't a contract for recession probability or GDP exist, maybe it does and I am unaware? Seems to me this would a very functional way for a company to transfer or manage risk. It could be structured much like fed-fund-futures with each contract paying a certain amount for each 0.1 of GDP or maybe its only in-the-money if we actually do reach recession. I realize that many businesses particularly those that are publicly traded manage risk in many other ways but this could become one piece to the puzzle, consumer discretionaries and/or retail for instance.
Posted by: JRS at January 9, 2007 09:05 AM
Weak GDP (by which I mean 2% or lower) I see from autos, construction, and middlin' holiday sales. No great surprise on any of them. The big risk here is energy prices; depending on the deflator, the same nominal number I think gives us 2% could almost as easily exceed 3% in real terms. As for the PCE, that's just what I'm looking at. So far, the numbers are "fine" -- and fine numbers gave us 2% last quarter. I see just enough in Q4 to hold the lid on.
I could be wrong, but then I'm not trading this weird little contract. Know what you trade etc etc.
Posted by: wcw at January 9, 2007 10:55 AM
I have read "Wisdom of Crowds" and would be interested in reading further. Are there some specific journal articles on this behavior you could point me to.
Posted by: JRS at January 9, 2007 11:26 AM
Technically it is not a success for the prediction market to have gotten 32 out of 32 races right, unless the implied percentages were something above 97%. If a market is predicting an event with 67% probability, as it did for the Republicans holding the Senate, then if that price is right, it *better* be "wrong" 1/3 of the time. So actually the fact that the markets got the Senate majority wrong is very consistent with their price behavior.
Posted by: Hal at January 9, 2007 03:55 PM
Hi, I am the guy who proposed this contract back on Nov 30 (http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/30/recession-contract-proposal/).
I also posted the same caveat that Kirchner did on my blog, a day before he did (http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2007/01/contract-for-us-recession-in-2007.html)
Just thought you would want to keep the attributions at the highest of academic standards, as I am a longtime reader of your fantastic blog.
Posted by: caveat bettor at January 10, 2007 01:23 PM
Thanks for letting us know, cb, and forgive the oversight. To partially atone, we've added your interesting site to our blogroll.
Posted by: JDH at January 10, 2007 01:43 PM
Very kind of you, Professor H. As a 6 month blogger, I have seen that this activity often deviates from optimality.
Best wishes on your site, and the respective careers and families of its august contributors.
Posted by: caveat bettor at January 11, 2007 12:40 PM
one should note that thinly traded contracts have less predictive value than widely traded "bets". That would be one reason to doubt this particular prediction even if you believe in the concept per se
Posted by: bellanson at January 17, 2007 08:31 AM


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I first read this book nearly 10 years ago as a youngster soon after it had come out. I don't really think I appreciated it too much then as I was only 11 but took it on a recent holiday to Turkey to have another go. I am glad I did as it is a fantastic read and was very difficult to put down. As a Man United fan I already regard Ferguson as more than a legend, but this book endears you to him further, as he tells his tale with humility and honesty. He is full of praise for those in his life whom have helped him to the top and equally critical of those he regarded as a hindrance. His story begins in Govan, Glasgow where he grew up and ends with Man ... Read the complete review
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Whether you like this book, the autobiography of Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson, will largely depend on your feelings towards the subject... More of that later, however, and for now let's concentrate on the book itself. Like most such footie biographies Managing My Life is ghost written, with healthy revisions by contributors to the mumbling mouthings of the supposed author. It has the usual hallmarks of the genre, with a preoccupation with their own particular view of life. Fergie's preoccupation with his socialist ideals was born from his working class upbringing, which he shared with most of the other great managers, like ... Read the complete review
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After reading ALEX FERGUSON,S auto biography,entitled "MANAGING MY LIFE",I must say that it is possibly the best biography I have read to-date. Honestly potraying his life and carrier so far.From his boyhood days in the clydside district of glasgow.Playing for various boys clubs to his rise to become a proffesional footballer. He played for such clubs as QUEEN,S PARK,ST JOHNSTONE,DUNFERMLINE, FALKIRK,AYR UNITED and RANGERS.Later in his football life,management became his goal. He became manager of EAST STIRLINSHIRE,ST MIRREN, ABERDEEN,briefly SCOTLAND,and MANCHESTER UNITED.HE has become a manager of great standing. His early days of management ... Read the complete review


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LJWorld.com weblogs Operation 100 News blog
May 12th Early Morning Law Enforcement & Fire/Medical wrap up
Lawrence Police conducted right around 15 vehicle stops this morning, only one of those resulting in a OUI arrest.
Officers were also kept busy with 10 disturbances and and two noise complaints. Two arrests were recorded related to disturbances, one for battery and another for criminal trespassing. No serious injuries were reported.
Just after 4:10 a.m., Lawrence Police and Fire/Medical were called to the 1700 block of Lake Alvamar Drive for a structure fire. Police arrived on scene and reported a fire in the basement. Fire crews arrived and confirmed that all of the occupants of the house were evacuated. The fire was said to be in a basement utility room. The fire did spread to the exterior of the home and then into some landscaping material. Everything was extinguished within about 30 minutes. The cause of the fire remains under investigation and a damage estimate has not been released. More on this fire can be found here from Operation 100 News or here from the Lawrence Journal-World.
Officers located an audible alarm at a business in the 1000 block of W 23rd Street at 4:49 a.m.. Those officers reported finding an open door and requested a responsible party to respond. It was unclear whether this was a burglary or simply an alarm due to an unlocked door.
At 5:55 a.m., Fire/Medical along with the Kansas Highway Patrol responded on an injury accident on westbound Interstate 70. The accident was said to be at milepost 204, between the east Lawrence exit and the Leavenworth county line. One person was transported from that scene, their injuries were not believed to be serious.
The activity blogged here is only a sampling of some of the things that Douglas County Law Enforcement and Lawrence-Douglas County Fire & Medical respond on. To see a complete list of Lawrence Police activity, the department has that available on their website along with several easy to use maps that show approximate locations for Police activity.
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I'm reposting this photo but hopefully the story will be worth it.
Last Friday, I went to the Ghost Tyger and Friends show at the Hotel Cafe. My friends and I had dressed up in Christmas gear for burcon karaoke and were still in our outfits.
We were waiting outside, debating what to do (as some of our friends weren't 21+) when I decided to walk in alone, assuming my friends would text me the final verdict.
I took a seat just inside the door, facing the wall. Most people were congregating in little clusters, but I was totally alone. After 5-10 minutes of me watching the door, texting frantically, I felt a tap on my shoulder and heard a voice say "I like your tights."
I began to speak before swiveling around. "Well, I have a theme going on here -" and then I saw Ben Edlund, in full tyger get-up. "Uh, Christmas." He chuckled. "I have friends coming, I promise. I'm not just here alone decked out head-to-toe in holiday cheer." I looked to the door and saw no sign of my friends "I think…" And he responded "It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if you were." Then, his eyes darted around the room a bit. "I must be going. Thank you for coming. Enjoy the show!" and he glistened through a PERFORMERS ONLY door.
One time I was the only loser sitting alone in this bar in strange clothes, and Ben Edlund came over to make me feel welcome in a space that had me feeling very anxious. Most surreal moment of my entire life.
(Many thanks for the shout-out, Silver Fox!)
Yesssssss a million pics of MR MISHA!!!! And Ben too :)
Mr. Collins, here pictured showing his gratitude to the Tyger for saving his life, on that famous day many months ago.


text:
Age 75
To locate the right Gottman Spivey you are looking for, browse our people search tools. PeopleFinders.com has an information database to help you find a person based on age, past residences, relatives, aliases, and more. Gottman Spivey was born in 1938 and is 75 years old. Known relatives include Pauline Mcclendon, Virginia L Spivey, Nellie Ruth Barry, Jessee Spivey, Richard L Spivey, Jessie Spivey.
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text:
Down in a garage at the foot of Eau Rouge — the fabled steepling right-hander at Belgium's Spa-Francorchamps circuit — Sebastian Vettel is talking fast and smiling easily. He is in jeans and hoodie, perched on a sofa, and looking so boyish for his 26 years that he could be a gap-year student doing India on a handful of rupees a day.
But he is Formula One world champion for the third consecutive time and the possessor of around £50 million (R800 million) in earnings. Few modern sportsmen of his stature wear their glory more lightly.
Indeed, he is the same kid I remember from an evening in the BMW motorhome when he was finding his way in grand prix racing. He came over to talk to me, a colleague from the Daily Express and a much-loved Formula One figure, press officer Ann Bradshaw, who clearly doted on the German driver like a mother.
While she called up the food, he (a big fan of British comedy shows and Cockney rhyming slang) stopped to chat and tell us about his new favourite English world: kerfuffle. Many sportsmen are approachable when relatively unknown, only to grow wary or reluctant or rude once they have scaled the peaks of their profession. Not so Vettel, the most decorated driver of his generation — the youngest single, double and triple world champion.
Yet a mythology has built, portraying Vettel as a pantomime villain at best or unlovable auto-maton at worst. Others say he is flattered by being in the dominant, Adrian Newey-designed car. Even in Germany some argue he is not a man of the people the way Michael Schumacher was. The old master, the theory goes, would have been, say, a mechanic if he had not been the world's most successful racer, whereas Vettel comes from a slightly richer family and is more cerebral.
In Britain, the anti-Vettel feeling has occasionally been stronger. When he retired from this year's British Grand Prix he was shamefully booed by a number of the crowd. Why? He is German and old enmities die hard. He is so successful he breeds resentment for no better reason.
Does it hurt him? "It's normal," he says, smiling, the afternoon after he cruised to victory at the Belgian Grand Prix. "I am very happy. I obviously would not swap with anybody.
"There are situations or stories where you want to tell people the truth as you see it. You learn to deal with the fact some think what they want. If it reaches the point where it takes your attention away from your racing then it has got in the way."
Has that ever happened? "No." But was the reaction at Silverstone surprising? "Yes. I didn't understand it. I had not done anything to make them do it. I went up on to the stage later for the post-race concert and got booed again. I took my camera out and said, 'If you are going to boo me at least do it properly'. I tried to make a laugh out of it.
"But you don't like it when people boo. Obviously in the British Grand Prix if I am leading and they want a British driver to win they might not like it, which is fair, but booing, I don't think that is fair. If one starts booing, others join in. I don't think they were all wanting to boo per se; it was a chain reaction, so you shouldn't get too upset by that."
Part of the ill-feeling was perhaps caused by Vettel's lowest moment as a sportsman: when he ignored team orders and overtook Mark Webber to win the Malaysian Grand Prix in March. He says: "The one thing I regret is that I put myself above the team. I apologised. Apart from that I am racing — and I am not apologising for that." But is Vettel given favourable treatment at Red Bull? "I am at the source to judge that it isn't true. Mark and I have the same car and the same chance to win." So why does Webber allege otherwise? "Everybody chooses his path." It is a diplomatic response dripping with feeling.
Thankfully for Red Bull's management, Vettel's troubled dynamic with Webber has just eight races to run — the first on Sunday in Italy — before the older man leaves Formula One to be replaced by another Australian, Daniel Ricciardo. Despite the criticism, Vettel, speaking at his unveiling as a Braun ambassador, has won avid admirers.
No less than Sir Stirling Moss has drawn comparisons with his hero Juan Manuel Fangio. While Vettel's prowess is clear — he has won 31 of his 112 races — his down-to-earth nature is almost equally remarkable. His friends are mostly from school and his girlfriend Hanna, who he protects from media exposure, is his school sweetheart.
He still goes to watch football with his pals, having a beer and a sausage. "Typical German," he says with a laugh. "I give them s*** and they give me s***. It is normal — a nice break from the track." He has no manager, though Bernie Ecclestone, with whom he plays backgammon, is a close adviser after Vettel sought him out as a novice. He discusses his own contracts, with a lawyer in the background to tie up loose ends.
"Sebastian has never changed," sagacious Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said. "He brings chocolates for the receptionist every time he visits the factory."
Vettel lives on a farm between Zurich and Lake Constance, eschewing the glitz of Monaco for rural Switzerland. It is a contrast to the world of Lewis Hamilton, the Briton supposed to vie with Fernando Alonso for the title of driver of his generation before Vettel and Red Bull overtook them.
"Lately, I have got on very well with Lewis," said Vettel. "He has a different lifestyle, it is fair to say that. I am not on Facebook. I am not on Twitter. I choose the farm, way outside the city. For him, maybe the city and some parties is what he likes. I don't judge him.
"I think it is important to be who I am. The moment you try to be someone else it backfires. If someone, Lewis for example, likes to live a certain life, in the celebrity world, it is the best way he will recover, strange as it sounds. It probably allows him to perform at his optimum."
Vettel, so superstitious he not only carries two silver coins in his socks but once became so obsessed with black cats crossing the road in front of him he kept detouring half an hour on his way home, is not counting the expected fourth world title as already won. His lead of 46 points is commanding but not impregnable. If he wins No 4, he knows his drink of choice: a Jager Bomb, or several. This mixture of Jagermeister and Red Bull has been the team's tipple after the closing race in Brazil over the last couple of years. "They were very numerous," he said. "We had a good reason." Let us hope the boo-boys will learn not to begrudge this modest, grounded and unflashy champion another taste of success.
Sebastian Vettel is Global Ambassador for the Braun male power grooming range, launching the shaver brand's global "Hold on to Your Dreams" project. For more info visit braun.com/uk
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[–]apextek 0 points1 point2 points 1 year ago
Im not saying god did it, But after my friend that i worked on cars with died, I asked god for a fun van to work on to get my mind off things. I followed an ad on craigslist and had this guy that was uber pimped out in the 70's turned preacher give me this van. He said it was a spiritual calling, it had been blessed by a shaman and was meant to be mine. He had interviewed others before me but i was the one. And he gave it to me, free of charge. all he asked was i have fun with it and let him take it for a ride now and again.
What really struck me as odd was I was surfing channels on the radio and found a classic punk song that I settled on. As I pulled in front of his house a christian radio station cut through the station I was listening to as the preacher on the radio said "..... and you are about to go on a spiritual journey, enter it with and open heart...."
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Soon they'll be popping up everywhere…
Farmers markets advertising they have organic produce.
But how can you tell if you're getting the real thing?
"Organic is a true usda label, just like you have usda certified meat, an organic farm will be usda certified." Wiregrass extension agent Neil Kelly said.
Meaning organic farmers will have this label on each veggie or fruit.
But how can you make sure the labels are authentic?
"It will have a certification number and you can check that back to the usda website." Kelly said.
Kelly says it takes lots of money and time to become an organic grower.
"It can be a quite extensive process to get that organic certification, and you are what they consider a certifying agent." Kelly said.
Organic growers should have no problem showing you their credentials.
They may also be able to help you with organic misconceptions....
"You hear a lot of times oh, organics is pesticide and herbicide free well that's actually not true. We use pesticides, herbicides in all of our different production systems. It's just the organics have to go by a certain list. " Kelly said.
However the chemicals that are used on organic produce are not as harsh as those used on non-organic.
"There are several things that come into play there. Obviously one has to do with the compounds that they're made of. Whether it might be a synthetic compound or whether it might be a recurring compound." Kelly said.
And Kelly says if you're trying to avoid pesticides all together, you shouldn't be looking for organic produce, but rather naturally-grown products from home gardens.
Organics have become big over the last decade, and the industry has been growing roughly 10-percent every year.
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text:
Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia
My first reaction to "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics," authored by Joshua D. Angrist and J�rn-Steffen Pischke, was: Wow! This paper makes a stunningly good case for relying on purposefully randomized or accidentally randomized experiments to relieve the doubts that afflict inferences from nonexperimental data. On further reflection, I realized that I may have been overcome with irrational exuberance. Moreover, with this great honor bestowed on my "con" article, I couldn't easily throw this child of mine overboard. As Angrist and Pischke persuasively argue, either purposefully randomized experiments or accidentally randomized "natural" experiments can be extremely helpful, but Angrist and Pischke seem to me to overstate the potential benefits of the approach. I begin with some thoughts about the inevitable limits of randomization, and the need for sensitivity analysis in this area, as in all areas of applied empirical work. I argue that the recent financial catastrophe is a powerful illustration of the fact that extrapolating from natural experiments will inevitably be hazardous. I discuss how the difficulties of applied econometric work cannot be evaded with econometric innovations, offering as examples some under-recognized difficulties with instrumental variables and robust standard errors. I conclude with comments about the shortcomings of an experimentalist paradigm as applied to macroeconomics, and some warnings about the willingness of applied economists to apply push-button methodologies without sufficient hard thought regarding their applicability and shortcomings.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
Pages: 31-46
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.24.2.31
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Related research
Keywords:Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
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Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- O "núcleo" da inflação no Brasil.
by ? in Análise Real on 2012-04-12 12:00:00
Cited by:
- Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009.
"Extreme Bounds of Democracy,"
KOF Working papers
09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.
- Hoddinott, John & Maluccio, John & Behrman, Jere R. & Martorell, Reynaldo & Melgar, Paul & Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Ramirez-Zea, Manuel & Stein, Aryeh D. & Yount, Kathryn M., 2011. "The consequences of early childhood growth failure over the life course:," IFPRI discussion papers 1073, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Jean Cartier-Bresson, 2013. "Le pouvoir du positivisme et ses limites : microéconométrie et macroéconométrie actuelles du développement," Working Papers hal-00847005, HAL.
- Niu, Yongzhi, 2010. "Taxpayers' Response to Warnings of a Possible Tax Audit: Do They Change Their Compliance Behavior?," MPRA Paper 25551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Folmer, Henk & Johansson-Stenman, Olof, 2011.
"Does Environmental Economics Produce Aeroplanes Without Engines? - On the Need for an Environmental Social Science,"
Working Papers in Economics
483, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Henk Folmer & Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2011. "Does Environmental Economics Produce Aeroplanes Without Engines? On the Need for an Environmental Social Science," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(3), pages 337-361, March.
- Carson, Scott Alan, 2013. "Body mass, wealth, and inequality in the 19th century: Joining the debate surrounding equality and health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 90-94.
- Gerry, Christopher J., 2012. "The journals are full of great studies but can we believe the statistics? Revisiting the Mass Privatisation – Mortality Debate," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 14-22.
- Dionissi Aliprantis, 2013. "Covariates and causal effects: the problem of context," Working Paper 1310, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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Samsung A127 facts
Welcome to our page about Samsung A127. On this page you'll find an overview of our best A127 Themes, A127 Mobile Games & A127 Mobile Software as well as A127 Ringtones - everything at a glance for your Samsung A127. Of course this is only a little part of what Jamster is offering for your Samsung A127. Do you already like one of the displayed Samsung A127 Themes, Samsung A127 Mobile Games, Samsung A127 Ringtones or Samsung A127 Mobile Applications? No problem simply click on the picture and you can order it. If you haven't found the right one yet, click on the "more"-buttons to get to the Jamster page. There you'll find many more interesting Ringtones, Graphics, Music, Games, Videos and much more for your Samsung A127. Check it out!


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Moji pregledani hoteli
B&B Hotel Frankfurt Hahn-AirportGebäude 619, 55483 Lautzenhausen (Prikaži kartu)
Vrlo dobar
Ocjena se temelji na 1828 recenzija
Across from the airport, what could be better.
Everything necessary for an overnight stay is there.
Location ideal for a late flight arrival, 30 seconds from arrivals gate ...
Location, location, location...
proximity to the airport price
Very convenient for early morning flights.
Perfect checkin/out service, location near to airport.
Stopiņu novads
20m from the terminal. Good value stay.
Tipical airport hotel to spent few hours before or after flight. Exellent location 20 m from the terminal
Good place to wait for the flight
Ovaj moderan hotel u Hahnu je smješten izravno nasuprot Zračnoj luci Frankfurt-Hahn. Hotel nudi zvučno izolirane sobe s flat-screen TV-om, besplatnim Wi-Fi-jem i 24-satnom recepcijom. Doručak je dostupan od 04:30. The B&B Hotel Frankfurt Hahn-Airport ima svijetle, klimatizirane sobe uređene svjetlim drvenim namještajem i opremljene privatnom kupaonicom. Sve sobe su lako dostupne dizalom. Bogati buffet doručak se poslužuje u hotelu B&B Frankfurt-Hahn. Grickalice i pića su dostupni na automatu za prodaju 24 sata dnevno. Gosti hotela Frankfurt-Hahn Airport B&B mogu koristiti parkirališta P1, P2, P7 i parkirališta za dugo parkiranje po sniženim cijenama. Broj soba: 107, Lanac hotela: B&B Hotels. Posljednja rezervacija za ovaj hotel napravljena je 19. pro. u 14:10 sati, iz Njemačke.
InternetBesplatno! Javna pristupna točka dostupan je u cijelom objektu i ne naplaćuje se. ParkirališteJavno parkiralište dostupno je u blizini objekta i nije moguća rezervacija. Cijena parkirališta iznosi 5,50 EUR po danu. Uslugerecepcija (24h), brza prijava/odjava, skladište prtljage, konferencijske sobe/mogućnost priređivanja domjenaka, faks/fotokopiranje, automat za prodaju pića, automat za prodaju hrane Općenitosobe za nepušače, dizalo, zvučno izolirane sobe, grijanje, klima-uređaj PrijavaOd 14:00 sati OdjavaDo 12:00 sati Otkazivanje/
Prosječna ocjena hotela:8
Na temelju 1828 recenzija Naši gosti recenzije pišu nakon svog boravka u hotelu B&B Hotel Frankfurt Hahn-Airport. |
Ocjena po kategorijama
Filtriraj ocjene |
Across from the airport, what could be better.
Poor selection of edible items available, facilities in the room are limited.
nice and clean
I had to open my window due to hot air heating. Did not get to sleep until after 1 am due to car park buses reving there engines after the barrier had been raised and cars blowing there horns.
Everything necessary for an overnight stay is there.
Location ideal for a late flight arrival, 30 seconds from arrivals gate ...
Location, location, location...
Food for breakfast is very expensive but very poor.
proximity to the airport price
room was small it was cold, it was not possible to regulate the airconditioning
Very convenient for early morning flights.
Bed was uncomfortable, pillows were completely flat.
Perfect checkin/out service, location near to airport.
Terrible smell of cigarette smoke in the room, though it is not allowed to smoke. For nonsmokers it is really awfull to sleep in such place. Wifi swithced off constantly.
20m from the terminal. Good value stay.
It was late, dark and raining when I arrived. Difficult to see where to park.
Tipical airport hotel to spent few hours before or after flight. Exellent location 20 m from the terminal
Good place to wait for the flight
The lady at the reception was very kind and she helped us a lot. We had a flight early in the morning. This hotel is located in front of Hahn airport, so very convenient for us.
I like the location right across the airport
I didn't like the bed so much. Too hard and not enough pillows. Only 1 pillow and 1 towel each.
Very close to the terminal
Well located directly opposite terminal building, 20 yards walk. Useful hotel only if travelling back from Frankfurt Hahn airport
Perfect location and good price. Very clean. Friendly staff. Very quiet - if window is closed, you can`t hear anything from outside.
Price for breakfast is 7,50 euro per person, it is expensive - for that price I expected something more, but breakfast was quite poor.
At entrance of airport
directly at airport
small rooms, no restaurant or bar
Conveniently located across the street from the airport made it easy to get to the airport early for a 6:30AM flight; pre-pay requiring no checkout the next morning; room was functional and clean.
Inside the shower there was no rack to place your own shampoo and soap requiring one to constantly reach outside the shower to grab what you need (resulting in water on the floor); they give you a passcode on a piece of paper to access your room which is fine but they should avoid including the room number on the same piece of paper in case you lose it (someone finding it now knows your room and door code).
Excellent Hotel for overnight Stops for Airport, Good Continental Breakfast @ €7.50 per head,
No Bar No Restaurant, Could do with the above ???.
Rooms ok, breakfast good.
Did not get internet access, waited for an sms that never came.
Very useful as airport overnight transit hotel.
convenient location at Hahn airport
VERY basic....
Location. Price. Working heat source.
I had two nights in a different rooms. Both seemed to be turned out but actually were dirty. The price is not so high but that is not an excuse when we talk about the cleanness. There was a forgotten towel from the previous guest in the first room. Extremely noisy air conditioners.
Recenzije gostiju izražavaju osobna mišljenja gostiju Booking.com-a koji su ispunili upitnik nakon boravka u objektu. Ova se mišljenja ne moraju nužno slagati s mišljenjima Booking.com-a.
Gasthaus am FlughafenJust a 5-minute walk from Frankfurt-Hahn Main Terminal, Gasthaus am Flughafen features a restaurant serving traditional German specialities.Posljednja rezervacija za ovaj hotel ostvarena je jučer u 13:03 od HRK 290 |
Airport-Hotel FortunaThis family-run hotel is located at Frankfurt-Hahn Airport. It offers free WiFi and a free shuttle service to and from the airport terminal, a 5-minute walk away.Posljednja rezervacija za ovaj hotel ostvarena je danas u 03:43 od HRK 366 |
My PlaceOvaj elegantan hotel s 4 zvjezdice je udaljen samo 800 metara od Zračne luke Frankfurt-Hahn. Nudi 24-satnu besplatnu uslugu prijevoza od/do zračne luke, besplatan Wi-Fi i atraktivnu terasu.Posljednja rezervacija za ovaj hotel ostvarena je danas u 11:41 od HRK 397 |


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This devotional was definitely what I needed today. Sometimes a person's gotta be reminded of their [manymanymaaaany] blessings and the joy of the Lord will be renewed/remembered. With vigor. PRAISE GOD(:
Posted by Jen Reyes on Jul 30, 2012, in response to the devotional on
Monday, July 30, 2012
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20 terms
civil rights
right or rights belonging to a person by reason of citizenship including especially the fundamental freedoms and privileges guaranteed by the 13th and 14th amendments and subsequent acts of Congress including the right to legal and social and economic equ
Civil Rights Act of 1964
This act made racial, religious, and sex discrimination by employers illegal and gave the government the power to enforce all laws governing civil rights, including desegregation of schools and public places.
Civil Rights Movement
movement in the United States beginning in the 1960s and led primarily by Blacks in an effort to establish the civil rights of individual Black citizens
de jure segragation
physical separation of a minority group from the dominant group based on laws
Fourteenth Amendment
made "all persons born or naturalized in the United States" citizens of the country
Martin Luther King Jr.
U.S. Baptist minister and civil rights leader. A noted orator, he opposed discrimination against blacks by organizing nonviolent resistance and peaceful mass demonstrations. He was assassinated in Memphis, Tennessee. Nobel Peace Prize (1964)
reasonableness standard
the different treatment of two different groups of people must be reasonable and not arbitrary
selective incorporation
The process by which provisions of the Bill of Rights are brought within the scope of the Fourteenth Amendment and so applied to state and local governments.
Jim Crow Laws
Limited rights of blacks. Literacy tests, grandfather clauses and poll taxes limited black voting rights
Voting Rights Act of 1965
1965; invalidated the use of any test or device to deny the vote and authorized federal examiners to register voters in states that had disenfranchised blacks; as more blacks became politically active and elected black representatives, it rboguth jobs, contracts, and facilities and services for the black community, encouraging greater social equality and decreasing the wealth and education gap