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Many of the datasets this economic profile are underpinned by the NIEIR-ID economic model, which is updated each financial year. In each update you can expect to see differences in some of the numbers to previous updates, particularly with historical data in Gross Regional Product, Value-added for some industries, and employment.
Why has historical data changed?
- For datasets based on population count (such as Employment), the availability of a new Census leads to adjustments to series to which the Local Government Area data estimates are benchmarked. This affects not just the current year, but past years going back to 2001.
- For money-based datasets (such as industry value added, gross regional product, household disposable income), NIEIR-ID estimates are benchmarked for Local Government Areas using a price base derived from ABS National and State Accounts. Because this price base changes each financial year, all corresponding money-based ($m) series of data get historically revised according to these new benchmarks. For some industries (particularly those based mainly on commodities), changes to the price base can mean significant changes to previous GRP and growth rate estimates.
Continue reading for more details.
The 2021 Census
The 2021 Census results are fully incorporated into the updated estimates. There is some confusion with this new data after a Census - why are the Census estimates of employment below (in some cases well below) the employment estimates from the NIEIR economic data? The reason is that NIEIR's data base is benchmarked to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force Survey, in which the ABS makes adjustments for the under-counting of employment in the Census. It takes time for the ABS to do this, and the adjustment of the Labour Force Survey estimates are not yet fully completed. Therefore, further adjustments in this regard may flow on into the future updates. In general, however, even though Census 2021 data imputed work location for those people who didn't state it, it is still an undercount compared to actual employment as measured by the Labour Force Survey.
Why do data series constantly change?
Other than the employment issue the main question which arises from the issue of an updated version of the NIEIR-ID data base is why do historical series going back decades change compared to the previous versions of the data in general and the most recent version in particular? A general rule with statistical estimates is that in more recent years better estimates are made by the ABS for past data, so these are revised. The updated data base issued after a new Census will also most likely change the estimates for the 2016 to 2021 period. The question is why the data series for an LGA going right back to 2001 should also change.
In understanding these changes, it is useful to distinguish between money-based ($m) series and straightforward count series, such as estimates of employment and population.
Changes in $m series: Price bases
From one period to another the quantities and prices comprising transactions in the economy change. This means that when the current price value of an aggregate, such as GRP or value added, in one period is compared with the current price value in another period, the difference between them usually reflects both changes in quantity and changes in price. In order to estimate by how much the 'volume' of GRP has changed between the two periods we need to exclude the direct effects of price change.
This means that one of the main changes to the value aggregates is due to changing the price base – that is the chain volume measure (CVM) year – changes each year in accordance with the price (or CVM) year of the latest ABS National and State Accounts. This is because the LGA data series are benchmarked to the corresponding National and State Accounts. Therefore, as the price base changes in the latest National and State accounts, so will the price base of the LGA estimates.
For the current data update the price base is based on the latest National Accounts fiscal year. Generally, the price base year is one year prior to the latest reference year of the data.
This can have a significant impact on series such as
- industry value added;
- gross regional product; and
- household disposable income, etc.
Generally, the largest variation is for mining gross product because of changes to commodity prices. Agriculture can be equally unstable because of the volatility of output prices.
Changes in $m series: Relative prices
Changes in relative prices can have a large impact on industry value added and GRP growth rates profiles.
For a single unique product (e.g. steel production), a change in the price base will not impact on the growth rates of the series by quarter or annually. This is because steel is measured by tonnes; the amount of tonnes produced is unaffected by the price base.
However, the change in CVM year price base will change the relative prices of products and services within each given industry and therefore the growth rates year-by-year or quarter-by-quarter. This is because the NIEIR-ID data base is the 86 2-digit ANZSIC industries; each industry is a composite of many products and services.
As an illustration, take the most important composite series in the NIEIR-ID data base: gross regional product. For an LGA in 2013-14 CVM price year mining gross product is $100 million and services $150 million, giving a total GRP of $250 million. For the 2014-15 CVM year the output price of mining fell by around 50 per cent, reducing gross product to $60 million. Although there was no change in the real CVM growth rate for mining gross product between 2013-14 and 2014-15, this implies a 2014-15 CVM value of mining gross product of $50 million for the 2013-14 price year.
In the year earlier CVM price year the mining gross product was double this estimate. As can be seen from Table 1, although each of the two industry components of GRP have the same growth rates irrespective of the CVM price year, the growth rates for GRP are different. For the 2013-14 CVM price year, the 2014-15 and 2013-14 growth rates for GRP is 10.8 per cent, compared to 8.5 per cent for the 2014-15 CVM price year. The reason is the lower weight given to mining gross product in determination of GRP for the latter CVM year compared to the earlier price base year.
This is typical of the change in GRP growth rates for mining-dominated LGAs between the estimates of different vintages (CVM years) as mining prices fell and mining output increased rapidly.
Table 1 illustrates the case of the impact of the change in the CVM price year on the growth rate of gross regional product for an LGA.
Table 1. Growth rate in composite series and change in the CVM price year | |||||||||
2013-14 | 2014-15 | Growth rate (%) | |||||||
2013-14 CVM base year gross product ($ million) | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Mining | 100 | 120 | 20 | ||||||
Services | 150 | 157 | 4.7 | ||||||
2014-15 CVM base year gross product ($ million) | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Mining | 50 | 60 | 20 | ||||||
Services | 150 | 157 | 4.7 | ||||||
The cumulative impact over four to five years of a change in the price base year could result in a 10 to 12 per cent growth-rate difference, compared to the previous year data base, based on a different CVM year. This is perhaps the main source for the difference between GRP estimates for last year compared to this year after adjustment for the aggregate change in the price base.
In reality Services in Table 1 will be a composite series of 85 other industries nearby, all of which will have growth rates changed from the selection of the CVM years, meaning the growth rate profile for gross regional product could well be further altered by changes to all industries, not just from mining.
The conclusion is that for a series dealing with industry activity changes in the CVM year is generally not comparable with previous year's estimates. For these series each update creates a unique reality of the statistical profile in terms of the history of the series of how the LGA has performed and its comparison with other LGAs. For some LGAs, especially those with high shares for the mining and agriculture industries, the gross regional product level and historical growth rates will look very different when compared to the previous year estimate, to the extent that some will conclude it must be a different LGA.
Some may conclude that the solution to this is to fix the price base year and hold it for many years. There are two reasons why this cannot/should not be done. Firstly, one would have to ignore benchmarking the LGA data to the actual National and State Accounts and construct a new set of accounts based on a fixed price year. This would result in a growing disconnect between the LGA data base and the official accounts for the state and the nation. Secondly, when the ABS did hold the price base constant for many years, the structure of the economy reflected in the accounts became increasingly distorted from the reality of the structure of the economy that was emerging.
The only thing to do is simply to accept that the historical and relative reality that an LGA may well change with a change in the CVM year. For many LGAs, especially those with high services production, the change in the CVM year may have only have a relative minor impact in growth rate terms if not the value of the series.
Changes in count series: Resident employment
The analysis above does not apply to "count" series, such as for employment and population series. However, they can change simply because, as noted at the beginning of this note, the availability of a new Census leads to adjustments to series which the LGA data estimates are benchmarked to.
In terms of the methodology of data development in the preparation of the NIEIR-ID data base, the first and most important step is to prepare estimates of total resident employment by LGA. To do this a number of data sources are used, including labour-force statistics, tax and social security data. This is the reference series which influences the outcome for the development of all subsequent series. Given the importance of this series and the fact that it's a count series not influenced by changes in the CVM year, the comparison of the resident employment estimates for the 2022 data base for the 2021 year compared to the estimates for 2021 resident employment from the 2023 data base will give an indication of the performance of the NIEIR-ID methodology in estimating data well beyond the year of the last Census.
There is a catch however. The basic benchmark in estimating resident employment is the working-age population, which in turn is taken directly from the ABS estimates. In effect the various series used to estimate resident employment are expressed in terms of per capita of the working-age population; the final estimate is derived from multiplying the average estimates from the different sources by the ABS estimate of the working-age population.
The ABS make significant adjustments to the Estimated Resident Population (and working-age component of it) after each Census. For instance, after the 2016 Census, Victoria "gained" 115,000 extra people, while WA "lost" 59,000 people. How well did the ABS do in estimating working-age population (that is, the population aged between 15 and 64)?
If the NIEIR-ID estimates of resident employment for resident employment made in 2017 for 2016 compared to the 2016 estimate made in the current data base after correcting for changes in the estimates of the working age population, the mean difference is 0.5 per cent and the mean absolute difference is 2.2 per cent.
This indicates that, on average, most of the variation in the resident employment estimates was the result of revision after the Census in the ABS population estimates, not in the NIEIR-ID methodology of estimation. However, as the NIEIR-ID estimates are always benchmarked to population, we are constrained by the estimates that ABS produce, which do get revised.
Labour-force benchmarks for the 2018 data base
The NIEIR methodology in deriving the employment and hours estimates is to employ a range of benchmarks from LGA total employment, regional (a combination of LGA industry employment and hours estimates at the SA4 level) and state industry employment and hours estimates. The methodology results in an iterative process (at least a 30 repeat sequence for a given quarter), which benchmarks the individual LGA industry estimates to each constraint in turn until convergence is achieved. That is when all the possible benchmarks produce an unchanged outcome for any given LGA industry employment or hours estimate. This is the same methodology that is employed by the ABS in developing national input output tables. It is called the RAS method.
Unfortunately, it is not always possible to achieve convergence for some industries – especially for the first update after the availability of a new census. An outcome for the update for the 2011 census issued in early 2013, or the 2013 data base, will illustrate the issue. After the 2013 data base was issued it was identified that the data base had eliminated 3000 defense employees from the City of Rockingham that were in the 2011 census estimates. The reason was that the final benchmarking was to the labour-force estimates and these defense employees, as at the beginning of 2013, were not included in the Western Australian industry labour-force estimates. These employees were in the labour-force estimates available by early 2014, so there was not a problem of benchmarking for the final estimates at the last stage of the RAS method to the labour-force estimates.
The NIEIR method now imposes constraints that ensure no employment or hours estimate at an industry level for an individual LGA could fall below the census estimate. If the labour-force estimates have not been fully adjusted there will be a discrepancy between the sum of the LGA industry estimates and the state control totals if the final step is not to benchmark to the labour-force estimates. However, to preserve the integrity of the census results, the final step is to benchmark the data to the LGA total employment control estimates (the importance of these is explained below); these in turn are benchmarked to the total state employment labour-force estimates but not the individual industry estimates. The problem that arises from this from the current data base can be illustrated with the case of Victorian agriculture. At the one-digit industry level the census employment in Victorian agriculture is around 65,000. The current labour-force estimates for the third quarter of 2016 (the time of the census) is around 91,000. The current SA4 agriculture employment estimate for Victoria, when summed across the relevant SA4, is over 100,000 for the same quarter. The estimate from the 2018 data bank of the sum of Victorian LGAs is 86,000. The expectation is that when the final labour-force estimates are prepared by the ABS incorporating all the changes from the 2016 census, Victorian agricultural employment will be closer to this estimate than the current estimate. If this is not the case, two things could happen: either total Victorian employment will have to be revised upwards, or the current two-digit employment estimates of a number of other industries will have to be revised downwards.
This means that for this data base there will generally be a discrepancy for agriculture and other industries' state control totals and the sum of the estimates from the State LGAs. Eliminating these discrepancies would involve reducing individual LGA employment and hours worked estimates below census benchmarks.
Hopefully these problems will be greatly mitigated for the 2019 data base when the ABS has completed benchmarking labour-force estimates. Even for this data base update there is not a significant problem for the majority of industries. The standout case for possible downward revision of total employment estimates is the case of the manufacturing sector. Final resolution on the issue of manufacturing employment will have to wait until next year.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Stan Kasten: I'd like to return this monkey paw.
Wizened Old Man: Why?
SK: It's done the opposite of everything I've wished!
WOM: Well...didn't you heed my warning about the curse?
SK: Hold on, I'm getting a call. [answers phone, finishes call] Okay, you were saying?
WOM: I'll take the monkey paw back, but you must pay one final terrible price. Your worst pitcher, at Coors Field—
SK: Hold on, I'm getting another call. [answers phone]
WOM: Heh heh heh.


text:
MEXC Exchange Review: The Ultimate Guide To MEXC Global
We are pleased to present our comprehensive MEXC Exchange Review. Here we explore the platform's workings and explain why it is a popular choice for crypto enthusiasts around the world. Join us as we explore its features, fees, security measures, and more to help you make an informed decision on your next cryptocurrency exchange.
Table of Contents
- Introduction to MEXC Global
- Features and benefits
- What Makes MEXC Exchange Stand Out?
- Volume and Liquidity
- Is the MEXC Global Exchange Regulated
- Supported Cryptocurrencies and Trading Pairs
- Buy and Sell Crypto Directly
- Fees and Trading Limits
- Supported Payment Methods
- Security measures
- Customer Support and Resources
- MEXC Mobile App
- User Interface – Ease of Use
- How do I register on the MEXC Crypto Exchange
- Alternatives and Comparisons
- The pros and cons of MEXC Exchange
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions – FAQs
Introduction to MEXC Global
MEXC Global, a top cryptocurrency exchange, caters to both novice and experienced traders. Established in 2018, the platform boasts a user-friendly interface, competitive fees, and a robust suite of trading tools. With over 1000 cryptocurrencies and 2000+ trading pairs, MEXC Global offers traders unmatched access to the world of digital assets.
Features and Benefits
Spot and Margin trading
MEXC Global offers traders two main trading options: margin and spot trading.
Spot Trading – Spot trading lets users instantly purchase or sell cryptocurrencies at current market prices. This type of trading is ideal for those looking to make quick transactions, as it provides real-time liquidity and ensures that orders are filled promptly. Its intuitive interface and powerful charting tools allow users to analyze market trends, make informed trading decisions and provide valuable information.
Margin trading: MEXC Global offers margin trades with up to 10x leverage for experienced traders who want to maximize their profits. This feature allows users to borrow funds from the exchange to amplify their positions, potentially leading to higher profits. Margin trading comes with higher risk. Profits can be multiplied by margin trading. MEXC Global offers risk management tools like stop-loss orders or liquidation warnings that help traders effectively manage their positions.
Futures and Options
MEXC Global offers options and futures trading to help advanced traders.
Futures Trading: Futures are derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on the future price of a cryptocurrency without actually owning it. Based on market predictions, users can take long (buy) and short (sell) trades. Potential profits arise from the difference in the contract price and eventual settlement price. MEXC Global offers both quarterly and perpetual futures contracts. This allows traders to select the duration that suits their strategy best.
Options Trading: Options are another type of derivative contract that grants traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a specific cryptocurrency at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a certain date (expiration date). Options trading can be used to hedge existing positions, speculate on price movements or generate income through option premiums. MEXC Global offers a user-friendly options trading interface, complete with advanced charting tools and analytics to help traders make informed decisions.
Staking and Yield Farming
MEXC Global supports staking and yield farming, allowing users to earn passive income by locking up their tokens. Users can choose from a variety of staking pools or yield farming options to find the right plan for their investment strategy.
Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs)
MEXC Global has a dedicated platform for Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs), providing users with access to new and promising projects in the cryptocurrency space. Participating in IEOs allows users to support innovative projects and possibly gain early access to new tokens.
PUSH (Peer-to-Peer Trading)
MEXC Global provides PUSH, a peer to peer (P2P), trading platform that connects sellers and buyers directly. This feature allows users trade crypto with one another using their preferred payment method. It is a simple and secure way to buy or sell crypto without having to rely on traditional order books.
What makes MEXC Exchange stand out?
MEXC Global is known for:
- Wide range of supported cryptocurrencies and trading pairs
- Advanced trading options, including spot, margin, futures, and options
- Discounts and competitive fee structure for MX token holders
- User-friendly interface and comprehensive trading tools
- Security and regulatory compliance commitment
Volume and liquidity
MEXC Global consistently ranks amongst the top cryptocurrency exchanges for trading volume. This indicates that the platform has a high level liquidity. Trader's success is dependent on high trading volumes and liquidity. They ensure orders are executed quickly and efficiently. This reduces the potential for slippage and provides a smoother trading experience.
High liquidity also indicates that MEXC Global has a large user base and a healthy market, which can contribute to the platform's long-term stability. This can attract more users and create a positive cycle for both the exchange as well as its users.
Additionally, liquidity increases the ease of users entering and exiting positions. This is true even for large orders. It doesn't have any impact on the market price. This is particularly important for traders who require a reliable platform that can handle their trading volume without adversely affecting their strategy.
Is the MEXC Global Exchange Regulated
MEXC Global is a regulated exchange, holding licenses in various jurisdictions, including Seychelles and Switzerland. To ensure compliance with international regulations, the platform follows strict KYC/AML policies.
Supported Cryptocurrencies & Trading Pairs
MEXC Global supports a wide array of cryptocurrencies, including popular coins like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC), as well as numerous altcoins and DeFi tokens. With over 1000 cryptocurrencies and 2000+ trading pairs available, traders have a plethora of options for diversifying their portfolios and finding unique investment opportunities. This platform includes:
- Popular Cryptocurrencies: Major coins like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and Cardano (ADA) are all available on MEXC Global.
- Altcoins: A vast array of altcoins, including Polygon (MATIC), Aave (AAVE), and Decentraland (MANA), provide users with more investment options.
- DeFi Tokens: MEXC Global supports numerous DeFi tokens such as Uniswap (UNI), Compound (COMP), and Yearn.Finance (YFI), enabling users to participate in the growing DeFi landscape.
- Trading pairs: MEXC Global has over 2000 trading pairs, including stablecoin, fiat-tocrypto and crypto-tocrypto.
MEXC Global has a wide range of trading pairs and cryptos, which allows them to offer both novice and experienced traders ample opportunity for diversification and growth.
Buy and Sell Crypto Directly
MEXC Global's intuitive interface makes it easy to buy and sell crypto.
- Navigate to "Buy Crypto" and choose your preferred payment method.
- Select the cryptocurrency that you want to buy and enter the amount.
- Review and confirm the transaction details.
- Complete the payment and receive your purchased crypto in your MEXC wallet.
Fees and trading limits
MEXC Global's fee structure is competitive and designed to accommodate users with varying trading volumes and account balances. The platform employs a maker-taker model, with different fee rates for makers and takers.
Maker-Taker model: This model allows makers to place limit orders and pay lower fees than those who fill them. This promotes liquidity and makes trading more efficient. Users' fees will decrease as their trading volume (or account balance) of MX (the native token of the platform) grows over time.
Trading Fees – MEXC Global's trading charges start at 0.2% per taker and 0.15% per maker. There is an option to reduce these fees based on trading volume and MX holdings. Additionally, users can enjoy reduced trading fees by using MX tokens to pay their fees. This further enhances the platform's cost-effectiveness.
Withdrawal and Deposit Fees: The deposit fees for MEXC Global are usually free. However, withdrawal fees can vary depending on which cryptocurrency you choose. The platform regularly adjusts these fees to reflect network congestion and transaction costs, ensuring that users pay a fair and reasonable amount for withdrawals.
Trading Limits: MEXC Global enforces minimum and maximum trading limits to maintain a stable and orderly market. The trading pair, account verification level and user's trading history all affect the limits. For example, higher trading limits may be available to users who have completed advanced identity verification or demonstrated a consistent trading history.
MEXC Global's trading limits and fee structure cater to all levels of traders from novices to professionals. Its attractive fees and advanced trading features make it a good choice for traders who want to maximize profits and minimize costs.
Supported Payment Methods
MEXC Global supports a variety of payment methods for buying and selling cryptocurrencies, making it accessible to users worldwide. These are some of the supported payment options:
- Credit/Debit card
- Bank Transfer
- PayPal
- Alipay
- WeChat Pay
These diverse payment methods ensure that users can quickly and easily purchase cryptocurrencies or convert their digital assets into fiat currencies.
Security Measures
MEXC Global is serious about security and has implemented multiple layers of protection to protect user assets as well as data. The following are some of the most important security measures that are in place:
- Two-factor authentication (2FA): Users can enable 2FA to add an extra layer of security to their accounts, requiring both a password and a unique code sent to their mobile device during login.
- Cold wallet storage: The majority of user assets are stored in cold wallets, isolated from the internet to minimize the risk of hacks and theft.
- SSL encryption: MEXC Global uses SSL encryption for users' personal data and secure communication with the platform.
- Security audits are conducted regularly: The exchange performs routine security audits, and works continuously to improve its infrastructure to protect against potential threats.
Customer Support and Resources
MEXC Global offers a solid customer support system. They have a dedicated team that is available 24 hours a day via email, chat, and social media. Access to a comprehensive Help Center is also available, which includes FAQs, guides and tutorials that will help users navigate the platform and resolve any problems.
MEXC Mobile App
To cater to users on the go, MEXC Global offers a feature-rich mobile app available for both Android and iOS devices. The app provides a seamless trading experience, allowing users to manage their portfolios, place orders, and monitor the market from anywhere.
User Interface – Easy Use
MEXC Global's user interface has been designed with both beginners and experienced traders in mind, offering an intuitive and easy-to-navigate platform.
Intuitive: The platform's layout makes it simple for users to locate the features they are looking for. The main dashboard makes it easy to access trading pairs, account balances, order history, and other information.
Advanced charting tools: MEXC Global offers advanced charting tools to help traders analyze market trends and make informed trading choices. These tools offer a variety of technical indicators, drawing tools and customizable timeframes to suit different trading preferences.
Customizable Options: Users can customize their trading experience by customizing a variety of settings such as trade execution options and display preferences. This personalization ensures that users can create a trading environment that best suits their needs and preferences.
MEXC Global's user interface was designed to make trading easy and efficient, while accommodating different levels of expertise.
How to Register on MEXC Crypto Exchange?
- Visit the MEXC Global website and click "Sign Up."
- Complete the captcha by entering your mobile number or email address, creating a password and filling in the form.
- Send an email confirmation code or SMS verification code to confirm your registration.
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Alternatives & Comparisons
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LAS VEGAS >> The long parade of tourists who regularly stop by the downtown Las Vegas shop featured on the History Channel reality show "Pawn Stars" could soon have something better to do while waiting in line.
Gold & Silver Pawn Shop co-owner Rick Harrison has drawn up plans for a Pawn Star Plaza shopping center that could boast six restaurants and about 16 small shops. The company's general contractor has submitted the proposal to the city planning department, and a review is expected in September, according to pawn shop general manager Theo Spyer.
"We have always tried to improve our customer experience while waiting in line," Spyer said, pointing to misters, benches and a hot dog stand at the premises. "Now we intend to take it to the next level. We are currently working on a line system that will enable the fans to patronize Pawn Star Plaza without losing their position in line."
The plaza, which Harrison estimates would cost $2 million to build, would consist of several colorful, modular units fit together like a Rubik's Cube. Harrison said he was inspired by Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh's nearby Container Park, which is built out of shipping containers commonly found on trains and barges.
"It was more of the look, flexibility, ease of construction and simplicity of design that created Rick's vision for the space," Spyer said.
The pawn shop, which is open 24 hours a day, is located in a gritty area near bail-bond offices and a now-closed tattoo parlor. Harrison told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he wants to help rejuvenate the area without using city redevelopment funds.
"I really want to see this part of town do great," he said.
But the prospect of profiting off the steady stream of visitors is also driving the project.
"Making money is my third or fourth most favorite thing in the world," Harrison told the newspaper.


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President John F. Kennedy stands with delegates of the International Federation of Catholic Universities (IFCU) Convention during a visit in the Rose Garden. Accompanying the group: Rector of the University of Louvain (Belgium), Bishop Honoré Van Waeyenbergh; President of the Catholic University (Taiwan), Archbishop Paul Yü Pin; Chancellor of the Catholic University of Pelotas (Brazil), Bishop Antônio Zattera; President of the IFCU and Rector of the Catholic University of America, Bishop William J. McDonald. Also pictured: White House Secret Service agents, Ron Pontius and Dick Johnsen. White House, Washington, D.C.


text:
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Cholesterol presentation: Between countries
Unfortunately Excel doesn't do nice sweeping curves, so I've mangled it by eye to a straight line thus:
Which is still very convincing. Slightly less convincing is when the choice of different countries from the same data bases suggests that dietary fat has nothing to do with heart disease and that heart disease is very rare anyway:
Of course choosing a few other countries might have given a negative correlation:
And, with a little effort, we can see that if only we could just get everyone's fat intake above 40% of calories heart disease would be a thing of the past, just so long as we chose the correct countries to look at:
So let's stop playing and look at the whole database from which Keys carefully selected his six countries:
OK, there IS a correlation. It's pathetic, especially compared to the original line swept in by Keys. Of course things get worse if you add in the Masai, the Inuit, the Rendile, the Tokelau and a few others, shown as red dots:
At this point you would have thought that the name Keys would have become a joke and people would simply have ignored him as a self publicising evangelist with scant respect for the truth. But Keys was nothing if not determined. In 1958, the year after Yerushalmy and Hillebo had shown him to be a charlatan, out came this paper explaining the mechanism by which the high fat diet apparently caused heart disease, even if it didn't. Serum total cholesterol!!!!!! Picture credited to Dr Ravnskov (couldn't get the original).
Of course adding a few data points, which Keys had conveniently forgotten, gives this plot, again credited to Dr Ravnskov:
Anyone for a straight line? These studies are the core of the lipid hypothesis. They are where it all came from and the "science" is total junk.
As a final comment on between nation studies this figure, credited to Dr Kendrick, shows the rates of death from CHD plotted against the percent of a given population who are frankly hypercholesterolaemic. He extracted the data from the little discussed MONICA study:
Obviously living in Russia, Northern Ireland, the Czech Republic or Lithuania is bad news for CHD. Forget cholesterol.
That's as much as there was time for on between nations studies. Essentially they provide absolutely no support for dietary fat or serum total cholesterol as causes of coronary heart disease. It seems impossible that they should have spawned the current climate of cholesterol psychosis, but they did.
Within nations studies comes next.
OK, time to knuckle down to five very long days at work...
48 comments:
- Pasi said...
Thank You Peter! Very informative post!
Between 30-40 % dietary fat seems to give highest CHD and TC numbers. Is there any information on their HDL levels? I'd expect them be to be quite low in those high CHD mortality countries. - 25 Feb 2009, 09:54:00
- Brad Reid said...
Off topic...
A short little video clip on why we get fat... just scroll down a bit on this page to view it. It is called "Why You Get Fat."
Simplistic, yes, but an effective manner to promote any topic... just explain it in a cartoon format.
Cheers! Brad
P.S. I made African Stew last night and will eat it today. - 25 Feb 2009, 14:21:00
- Stephan Guyenet said...
Nice. I've never seen the data graphed out. I'll have to go photocopy that paper. - 25 Feb 2009, 18:20:00
- Anna said...
How do I find Key's original data for this?
- 26 Feb 2009, 07:16:00
- Unknown said...
HI Peter,
Thanks so much for your earlier response with the suggestion for amines etc. Have researched this and think it could well be part of the whole issue.
Off topic I am afraid: On the whole issue of insulin release and sensitivity: I have been testing blood sugar and is always low at 3.1 in the morning and maybe 4.8 at other times. Does this mean I am insulin sesnsitive, or does it mean I have masses of insulin coming in and lowering the sugar? Which way do you look at these things - because of course, this is no indication of the insulin, just the blood sugar.
Also, If I am eating 1500 calories a day and 10g of my food are PUFAs is that OK? Too much?
Thanks, Elizabeth - 26 Feb 2009, 10:10:00
- Jedidja said...
Great post! I'm just wondering (not being a mathematician) what the trend line does look like for the original data.
(I'm talking about the picture under which you write 'OK, there IS a correlation. It's pathetic, especially compared to the original line swept in by Keys.')
A quick glance does still seem to indicate in a general correlation between higher fat consumption and death rate, but is it considered to be statistically insignificant? Is there any chance you could add the same graph with the trend line through it? :)
Very informative, and great to read through. It's always amazing how statistics can be twisted to produce whatever result one likes. - 26 Feb 2009, 12:18:00
- Mark said...
I'm very much a layperson in all of this, having been sent here via a Facebook link. So, this is all very intriguing, but I'm also finding it very complex. Is there a (relatively) authoritative source someone can point to that covers the basics of these concepts?
Thanks! - 26 Feb 2009, 16:56:00
- Brad Reid said...
I found this article interesting, a bit long and general in nature, but worth a reading. Here goes:
It suggests that modern humans developed owing to a new nutrient exposure allowing brains to expand in size.
The article is pretty "pro-fat" and laments the loss of Omega 3 fats in our grazing animals, those that no longer feed on grasses and forbs.
Cheers! Brad - 26 Feb 2009, 18:03:00
- ItsTheWooo said...
Forgive me for being argumentative (as usual, right? ha) but it does appear as if there is a general trend toward higher cholesterol and disease. When all data is included the relationship is not as neat as was originally presented, but there is still definitely an upward general trend between disease and fat.
There is plenty of scientific evidence to support the notion that some fats are inflammatory (saturated, omega 6). Inflammation causes heart disease. Inflammation also leads to insulin resistance, which increases insulin levels and heart disease a second time. Dietary fat itself will prevent carbohydrate from being metabolized effectively, if mitochondria are oxidizing a dearth of fat glucose uptake is reduced, requiring compensatory hyperinsulinemia and all of the effects (further inflammation and vascular/cardiac diseases).
While it's apparent dietary fat does not cause heart disease in isolation (as evidenced by cultures with extremely high fat intakes and no HD), it is true that dietary fat will promote hyperinsulinemia when consuming a higher carb diet, especially if the fats are omega 6 or saturated fats... and hyperinsulinemia mediated inflammation definitely causes heart disease.
The point of my post is that "fat is good" can be just as much of a problem as "fat is bad".
Fat can and does cause hyperinsulinemia, unless one is eating an extremely low carb or low cal diet, and the point at which this happens is dependent upon sensitivity to glucose/insulin disease, which is determined by genetic and acquired metabolic damage.
I've noticed it doesn't seem incidental that those who report being able to eat huge amounts of fat with moderate amounts of "paleolithic carbs" like tubers are those who are naturally thinner even when eating a normal diet. People like me, fatties by birth, numerous carb diseases at early age, could never get away with that crap.
For optimal control of all symptoms I must watch fat, especially if carb and protein intake and calories are higher. - 27 Feb 2009, 00:12:00
- Mr Secret said...
i was wondering about one thing conserning the ON. When you count protein, should the protein in the potatoes be calculated? like from 400g there is 15g protein. - 27 Feb 2009, 02:15:00
- Peter said...
Hi Stephan and Anna,
I've emailed the Y and H paper.
Elizabeth, you can't say, you could either be very sensitive with low insulin levels or producing more insulin per unit carbs than you need, which salicylates can cause. Provided you feel ok with a glucose of 3.1mmol/l I would just get on an sort other issues before worrying about it. You know your total insulin exposure per 24h will be low if you LC compared to anyone on SAD like food...
PUFA at 10g/d would be difficult to reduce while still eating food!
Jedidja and ItsTheWoo,
Can't remember what the correlation coefficient was but even Keys noted that there was a similar correlation for sucrose, but he knew it was fat that was the problem. He and Yudkin argued this out in public. Keys was listened to, Yudkin was correct.
Keys moved the fat goal posts several times before eventually deciding that omega 6s were good and animal fats bad, because omega sixes drop TC and he had decided TC was the problem. Re correlation, to go back to Eades' illustration, long belts cause obesity and CHD. All we have to do is close down the men's department of Marks and Spencer to end both obesity and CHD, no obese person wears a 28 inch belt... make them all shop at GAP or River Island.
Mark, everything is a bit spread out. You could try
and work outwards from there. It's also useful to keep thinking, none of us has all the answers or agrees completely. That would be boring!
Hi Brad, I think most of us who visit here are fairly pro omega threes in moderation, and anti omega 6s too. Need to have a read there. I feel there are a few other factors thrown in...
Mr S, Nutrition Data gives 2g/100g boiled weight, so about 8g/400g fresh weight, slightly less for peeled. I've generally ignored the protein in spuds, probably quite incorrectly, but I try and relax about a few grams of protein here and there. I try to relax full stop. Difficult with a long ops list and a practice secretary who calls you Tigger!
Peter - 27 Feb 2009, 06:42:00
- Jacqueline said...
The correlation coefficient for all the data (excluding the added red dots) is about 0.5. The weak association is there, I would guess for the reasons ItstheWoo says, but that's all it is an association... not a cause.
There is a brilliant paper (I have it somewhere) by a statistician who worked for the UK dairy board in the 1970s where he showed mathematically that the probability of Keys having chosen his 6 or 7 countries 'by chance' (e.g. with a pin and a blindfold) and thus getting such a strong correlation was very very small. In other words, he was very politely trying to imply that Keys had chosen his data deliberately - seems obvious to us now, but maybe in those days, they were more reticent about making such accusations. Also, he did work for the dairy companies... - 27 Feb 2009, 13:26:00
- ItsTheWooo said...
The thing is peter that the relationship between fat and heart disease has a real physiological mechanism. It is not simply "correlation" like the association between plus sizes and obesity. I outlined them, but I'll do it again.
1) High fat intakes promote hyperinsulinemia when eating carbs with the fat, and hyperinsulinemia promotes inflammation which promotes heart disease.
2) Omega 6 and saturated fats promote inflammation, and inflammation promotes heart disease.
3) High fat intakes promote high calorie intakes which promotes hyperinsulinemia thus inflammation thus heart disease.
I am on board with you here, I agree that a fat-based metabolism is the way to go, but my point is it is a mistake to say "fat is good". Fat is only good if you are eating next to no carbs, if you are eating a moderate calorie intake, if you are not eating excessive protein. For the general population, fat is not good... fat is only good if it is displacing carbohydrate calorie for calorie.
I'm being anal and argumentative I suppose but it seems significant to at least mention that there is a grain of truth to the hypothesis that fat promotes heart disease (thus the positive correlation exists even if not as strong as once thought when all data is considered). - 28 Feb 2009, 07:42:00
- ItsTheWooo said...
Re: elizabeth:
A low morning glucose might suggest adrenal insufficiency, not hyperinsulinemia. Hyperinsulinemia and diabetic-like conditions will usually have sugar lower in the evening time and higher in the morning. If sugar is lower in the morning, this suggests glucose output is insufficient during fasting overnight due to a weak morning cortisol response, which suggests adrenal insufficiency.
Do you have changes in skin pigment, weakness, dizziness/faintness especially when standing, poor appetite? - 28 Feb 2009, 07:46:00
- ItsTheWooo said...
Elizabeth I just found the post you wrote earlier about the inflammation reactions even on an elimination diet (just fat/meat)... amines could be a possibility but it is also possible that insufficient corticosteroids makes your inflammation response hyperactive. Eating produces inflammation and without sufficient cortisol this may account for streaming bloodshot eyes and other bizarre reactions to food. The immune system goes into overdrive when there isn't enough cortisol. Given your low morning blood glucose, and perhaps fatigue, maybe this is something to investigate.
- 28 Feb 2009, 08:02:00
- L said...
"Saturated fat causes inflammation"
What's the source for this?
Isn't body fat mostly saturated? If I'm supposed to live off it when food is scarce, and it's bad for me, then mother nature screwed up big time. Which it does sometimes. But I don't thinks so in this case.
"High fat intake promotes high calorie intake"
Probably more like tasty food promotes high calorie intake. Eat a stick of butter by itself. Fuel. Nothing more. Drop it on a big stack of pancakes with warm maple syrup. Good eatin'!!! - 28 Feb 2009, 08:21:00
- Bill said...
"High fat intakes promote hyperinsulinemia when eating carbs with the fat"
ItsTheWooo, can you point to
where you got this from? - 28 Feb 2009, 10:41:00
- Jay said...
After seeing last graph I have to comment from Czech Republic. It's true that consumption of fats, especially saturated fats, is and always has been relatively high, but I would guess that the cause of high incidence of CHD here is the wheat and refined sugars.
Typical Czech daily menu looks like this: breakfest - wheat bread with something, lunch - meat with something based on wheat (alternatively potatoes or white rice), afternoon snack - bread or cake, dinner - there you go again, bread.
Given the amount of diseases connected with gluten and high carbohydrate intake I would blame wheat and refined sugars (you can find prospering sweetshops even in small towns) rather than fats.
I remember that when I was eleven or so, I was wondering why almost every old person is so fat, and that was still during communist regime before we started eating western processed unfoods. - 28 Feb 2009, 12:18:00
- Peter said...
Hi ItsTheWoo,
The production of pathological insulin resistance is quite straight forward, you just need to replace starches in the diet with sucrose.
Yudkin found (he doesn't give the refs in Pure, White and Deadly) a significantly better correlation between CHD and sugar than Keys did for fat and this was confirmed in an independent analysis of 20 countries by a Japanese group, without Keys style selective data choice. Yudkin then went on to intervention studies replacing starch with sucrose and leaving everything else as unchanged as possible. About 30% of his volunteers gained weight (5lb in 2 weeks), raised their insulin levels and developed hypersticky platelets. In two weeks you can start metabolic syndrome in 30% of apparently healthy men using sucrose. The situation almost, but not quite, reverses in a further two weeks of normal eating.
You cannot do this with fat, saturated or otherwise, under isocaloric intake. In the real world fat and sucrose intakes are usually associated together and rise in parallel. You have to decide if it is the fat or the sucrose which raises insulin as it is the raised insulin which stores the fat. Sucrose is a fat better candidate for chronic hyperinsulinaemia than any sort of fat.
The normal physiology remains that fat does regulate insulin levels but humans eating real Food consume relatively little sucrose (compared to sucrose/HFCS being the primary caloric source in a percentage of USA populace nowadays) and random ratios of fat to starches, from the extremes of Kitava through Tokelau to the polar regions, appear to be healthy. None of these populations become obese, hyperinsulinaemic or hyperglycaemic. Sucrose changes that, with the added extras of omega 6s and gluten thrown in I guess.
But real humans, eating real fat and real starches have been doing this for significant evolutionary time periods without developing metabolic syndrome. I can't see fat as the explanation for CHD, particularly not saturated fat. Sucrose has been around in freely available amounts for just over 100 years, it makes platelets sticky and it raises insulin. I don't like that.
Peter - 28 Feb 2009, 21:47:00
- Peter said...
Hi JC,
Not so good, but what about the poor Ukraine, about 10% of calories from fat, lowest saturated fat intake in the developed world and I can't remember if the CHD death rate is 1,000 or 1,500 per 100,000. Off the top of the scale in Kendrick's graph anyway.
Peter - 28 Feb 2009, 21:52:00
- Peter said...
OK fixed the worst of the typos! any more I missed?
Peter - 28 Feb 2009, 22:17:00
- Pasi said...
About Ukraine and CHD death rate. As we've discussed earlier ethanol has same impact on metabolic health than fructose in sucrose. According to "WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol 2004" Ukraine has alcohol consumption of 8.0 litres pure alcohol per capita for population
older than 15 for the years after 1995. Could this high alcohol consumption explain part of high CHD death rate? - 1 Mar 2009, 16:21:00
- ItsTheWooo said...
L - There is a lot of information about how saturated fat promotes inflammation. Obviously metabolism isn't as simple as "eat saturated fat and you will have higher inflammation", it's not that simple because other things a person does can outweigh that... for example, a lower calorie very low carb diet is going to slash inflammation, even if fat consumed is heavily saturated. This is because a very potent inflammatory hormone is insulin, and if saturated fat helps a person reduce insulin (by eliminating carbs) then obviously the net effect of satfat is beneficial.
But for regular people not minding their diets, sat fat IS inflammatory, because they make no other steps to reduce the carb load of their diet.
Fats promote higher calorie intake not because they "taste good", it is because inflammation increases insulin resistance which increases insulin level which makes us hungrier. Do deep ketosis for a few days, and magically food looks disgusting and eating feels unnatural, even if it is delicious pancakes with butter, they will look repulsive. The pancakes with butter only make us ravenous when we are actually eating them, screwing up our metabolism.
Since fats promote reduced uptake of glucose (again, do a search about it, high fat intake will slow clearance of glucose and require more insulin and subsequent inflammation) it is logically true fats promote higher calorie intakes in the context of mixed (carb-filled) diets.
Kiwi, when scientists want to make a lab rat fat and diabetic they feed it fat, and they do so because fat will make their cells resist oxidizing their normal glucose chow, which increases average blood sugar, which increases insulin & promotes metabolic changes that cause obesity and diabetes. There is lots of information about the relationship between fats and insulin resistance, this research is where the myth that fat causes obesity got started. You can search it out anywhere.
Peter - I agree completely that sucrose has a much stronger relationship with obesity and heart disease than does fat, or any kind of fat. My point was to say it is not black or white, just because sugar is the biggest problem doesn't mean fat has no role in this epidemic because it does.
Which is more disease causing... feeding a hypercaloric diet containing high fat with high carb, OR feeding a hypercaloric diet containing carbs with lower fat? Everything is equal otherwise. Over and over it is shown the former is more fattening diet, if you want to get fat and sick, eat a hypercaloric diet of both fat and carb. Even if eliminating the carbs makes fat benign (if fat increase is proportional to adequate carb decrease) it still is significant that fat PLUS carb is more disease causing than carb alone.
The correct interpretation is "carbs are worst, but don't overdo fat either unless you are specifically on a diet that contains borderline ketogenic carbs if you are at all vulnerable to metabolic disease".
Instead we are doing this 180 saying "fat is not the problem" when its just as untrue as saying "fat causes HD"... it's fat with carb with lifestyle (sleep, stress) and all these dynamic factors mixing together.
I don't know if it is correct to blame sucrose either, I know I could mightily get fat on a diet of potatoes, starchy tubers, and beef / butter...
I don't think it is any one thing. - 1 Mar 2009, 19:36:00
- . said...
Very interesting analysis. Just for your knowledge, there is a lot of this type of data available in Excel format at http://www.heartstats.org/atozindex.asp?id=8 I think it would be quite interesting to do the same analysis with more current data. Thanks for your website and work.
- 1 Mar 2009, 20:54:00
- Peter said...
Hi ItsTheWoo,
I know it's just observational but Dr Garemo found that (based on 7 day food diaries) 4 year old children with BMI >25 ate 52g/d fat and 204g/d carbohydrate of which 48g was sucrose. The BMI <25 children ate 55g/d fat and 191g/d carbs of which 44g were sucrose. I find it difficult to see how eating more fat within a free choice situation could be responsible for the incidence of BMI >25 as the fat intake was highest in the slimmest children. Rat studies are notoriously difficult to dissect out and the rats usually have no choice about eating what they are given. When give a choice they are usually better than swedish children at making pro fat choices if they are going to stay slim or avoid diabetes.
I think we have to look further at what influences food choices and satiety. Obviously the overweight children were eating less protein, so may have been driven to eat more empty calories to get adequate protein for growth through poor food choices.
Interestingly absolute energy intakes between heavy and light children were the same and energy intake per kg bodyweight was significantly lower (p<0001) in the overweight children compared to the slimmer ones.
The paper is a bit difficult to pick apart but I find it interesting. Might put it up as a post some time now the full text is available.
But yes, keep kicking the ideas around... Personally I do find it interesting that adding 20% lard to a high sucrose rat diet is worse than the high sucrose diet alone. This is real and may have implications for humans if we are going to continue to maintain the essential profitability of Kraft and Unilever while supporting the amazing profitability of Astra Zeneca and co. - 2 Mar 2009, 10:11:00
- Peter said...
Goldmine!!!!!!!!!!!!! HUGS (blushes, we don't do that sort of thing in England). I've been wanting this sort of data for ages. Always too busy to go hunting, and until you find something you have no idea it's worth looking for!
Peter - 2 Mar 2009, 10:20:00
- Peter said...
Yes, but think of all of that marvellous HDL they must die with! They are probably beaten by the Australian aboriginies who apparently have LDL to die for and masses of HDL (alcohol again?). And one of the highest CHD rates in the world.
Peter - 2 Mar 2009, 11:30:00
- Unknown said...
Speaking of aboriginals...
Anyone know the source for Kendricks aboriginals lipid values? There was none in the book and values that I found from the net did not support what Malcom said in his book. - 2 Mar 2009, 13:40:00
- . said...
Dear Petro, some more Excel data: http://www.fao.org/es/ess/yearbook/vol_1_1/site_en.asp?page=consumption and also here http://ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/spreadsheets/nutrients07.xls
- 4 Mar 2009, 01:53:00
- . said...
Now we can't complain we don't have freely available statistical data. Please see http://faostat.fao.org/site/609/DesktopDefault.aspx and http://faostat.fao.org/site/610/default.aspx
- 4 Mar 2009, 02:56:00
- JohnN said...
Its TheWoo:
"Fats promote higher calorie intake not because they "taste good", it is because inflammation increases insulin resistance which increases insulin level which makes us hungrier. Do deep ketosis for a few days, and magically food looks disgusting and eating feels unnatural, even if it is delicious pancakes with butter, they will look repulsive."
You're mixing facts and conjectures here. SFA's definitely not causing inflammation. Your mitochondria prefer it. Your body can desaturate it with enzyme as necessary. Moreover, when you fast (in deep ketosis) it's the fuel that the body burns. Peter made a point sometime ago (with my full agreement) that there's no difference between fasting and eating fat since in both cases the same stuff is being consumed whether coming through the stomach or from the body reserve.
The pre-occupation with insulin-sensitivity has less merit when considering the fuel you burn, if it is SFA/NEFA, needs no insulin for consumption. A much better yardstick for health would be achieving the low baseline insulin when your body at rest and/or needing a minimal amount to process a meal. Guess what kind of food can deliver those twin goals?
Best regards,
John - 4 Mar 2009, 05:25:00
- Bill said...
ItsTheWoo said:
"There is lots of information about the relationship between fats and insulin resistance"
Think I'll rely on Gary Taubes' massive tomb for confirmation that rats don't count for much. He put in the time (five plus years), reached his conclusions, and saved me the bother. - 4 Mar 2009, 10:07:00
- Bill said...
Yes, good reading for the after-life :)
- 4 Mar 2009, 10:13:00
- Peter said...
Hi Quelle,
I had a quick pubmed on aboriginals and it seems they have minimal HDL and any LDL they have is of the small dense type, so I assume they are consuming a diet closely related to what a rat gets given to give it metabolic syndrome, ie fat with sucrose and possibly not a lot else. I was surprised at the low HDL in view of their reputed alcohol consumption...
BTW I would still stick with the diet being the problem and the lipid changes reflecting the diet, rather than the lipids being the problem per se. Impossible to seperate the two aspects though.
Peter - 4 Mar 2009, 19:32:00
- Unknown said...
Its the Wooo stated that saturated fat causes hyperinsulinemia. No, it's the high amount of carbs in our western diet that causes hyperinsulinemia. Hyperinsulinemia leads to inflammation, which leads to heart disease, among others.
- 7 Mar 2009, 02:37:00
- Peter said...
Hi Michelle,
I think we have to be very careful here. High carb intake undoubtedly leads to severe hyperglycaemia/hyperinsulinaemia in the face of insulin resistance, but in normal insulin sensitivity circumstances a high carb intake still allows normoglycaemia with physiological levels of insulin. The nitty gritty is what, in the Western diet/environment causes insulin resistance per se. The Kitavans eat 70% of calories from carbs and do not become insulin resistance. Flooding someone's physiology with artificially raised FFAs immediately induces insulin resistance. The assumption that triggering a normal physiological mechanism explains a pathological state is where medicine is going wrong here. What we need to know is what is disturbing our physiology to upset what billions of years of adaptive development that has worked well until very recently, evolution-wise.
It is very very complex (to me anyway) and it does all have to fit together. Ideas are for kicking around, so everyone is, of course, very welcome to comment. I wish it were as simple as carbs are bad!
Though that is certainly true if your metabolism is damaged enough for you to be insulin resistant...
Peter - 7 Mar 2009, 06:23:00
- Dana Seilhan said...
"High fat intakes promote hyperinsulinemia when eating carbs with the fat..."
Read what you said again. WHEN EATING CARBS. Why does this matter? The nutritional definition of carbohydrate is sugar. All carbs are sugar. Even fiber is sugar, but you can't digest it, so it does nothing to you. Every one that you can digest, though, raises insulin levels.
Why would fat not raise insulin levels in the absence of carbs, which is the reverse implied by your statement? Because fat doesn't raise insulin. Therefore, fat does not cause hyperinsulinemia.
By the way, I'm a fattie too. If I drop the grains and sugar and eat lots of fat, I do lose weight and experience far fewer inflammation symptoms. (I'd go so far as to say the inflammation disappears, but I don't have access to a CRP test to say for sure.) Yes, even saturated. For Pete's sake, I cook with butter and bacon fat. If I forego the carbs, I thrive on this stuff. If I re-introduce them, I start swelling up again and my hands and joints bother me again and life is generally unpleasant.
It isn't the fat. Period. - 10 Mar 2009, 00:52:00
- Peter said...
Hi Dana,
Again, you have to be very very careful about the data you are using. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a high level of free fatty acids in the blood stream will divert metabolism from glucose to fatty acids and that this phenomenon can be described as insulin resistance. Eating a high fat meal will invariably raise free fatty acids in the bloods stream and produce this perfectly natural selection of fats for the metabolic substrate.
The problems occur when it is impossible for the body to get the balance of fatty acid consumption aligned with glucose utilisation.
From here you have to go in to the causes of the metabolic syndrome, MS.
But while pathological failure of energy control (MS) is a disaster when you consume but cannot use glucose, it is no problem at all when you consume fat. You may well have a slightly higher fasting blood insulin than a healthy carb eater, but it will be miles below an insulin resistant carb eater.
Living on free fatty does not fix insulin resistance, it side steps it by making the energy source suit the injured metabolism. Ketone bodies do an even better job. Trying to live on carbs when you have broken your metabolism is very difficult. Going in to exactly what breaks your energy control system is very complex, but it is notable that the manouvers which ameliorate metabolic syndrome best, ie moderate ketogenic diets or fully paleolithic non ketogenic diets both control appetite spontaneously. Energy through put seems to be very important.
How well a given person responds to ketogenic or paleo diets probably depends very heavily on where you have been metabolically in your earlier life. I know full well that ItsTheWoo has a very interesting life history and does not find anything metabolically works particularly well without specific planning/control from herself. That's a very interesting situation that very few of us are (hopefully) ever likely to experience...
But the upshot of all of this is that I would expect that a healthy well fed Kitavan would probably have a lower fasting insulin than an equally healthy northern hunter gatherer living through late winter on plentiful cariboo fat, not by much but by some. The area under the curve for insulin and glucose would be lower in the HG over 24h, but both individuals would be functioning within normal physiology and be healthy.
Peter - 10 Mar 2009, 10:13:00
- Nick said...
Hi Peter,
Thank you for this eye-opening post (for the neophyte).
You mention that you think a moderate amount of supplementation of Omega 3 fish oil is good to do, but moderate the comment if one drinks a fair amount of alcohol.
As background, I was told my FBS was in the pre-diabetic range last January (checked old blood tests and it has been around 100 for over 10 years) and that I have reactive hypoglycemia. This led me to the Blood Sugar 101 website and a whole new world of information that contradicted everything I thought I knew about diet and exercise. Linking to Jenny's blog list led me to many others, including Whole Health Source (I sit at his feet!) and Stephan's blog list and you. All of the thinking and information is new to me and jaw dropping.
I am now LC with no grains and supplement with D, A (cod liver oil), and K2(butter oil). I also take 4000 IU Omega 3 fish oil. I still drink about 15oz of red wine each evening. I do not eat organ meats.
Now I am curious to hear what amount of fish oil you consider safe, given my alcohol intake?
Sorry for the long post, and I hope you don't mind the personal nature of my question in your comment section. - 24 Apr 2009, 18:20:00
- Peter said...
Hi Nick,
I'm not sure that I, or anyone else, can set exact limits on what you can and can't do. As you are well aware, alcohol intake decreases the risk of CVD. You have to appreciate that there is no decrease in all cause mortality, the lower CVD deaths being roughly replaced by cancers, primarily of the digestive system. But this is in the context of eating the SAD, which ever country you live in... If you are eating a LC, low omega 6 PUFA diet then no one has researched your risk factors for anything, as there are currently no populations eating this way in a study-able manner.
If you eat a largely animal fat based diet where the predominant fats (and total caloric sources) are either saturated or monounsaturated fats you will cope far better with alcohol that if you eat to the ADA food pyramid homicidal diet. Under a low PUFA diet I can't see 5g/d of high omega 3 fish oil doing any harm, merely because it is such a small percentage of your total fat intake. You don't need very much DHA each day unless you are drinking vegetable oil as if it was a health food.
A few things I have noticed since LC eating re alcohol: I don't crave it much, I get very drunk very easily, I get minimal hangover. Richard, over at Free The Animal (http://www.freetheanimal.com/root/) has discussed a moderate alcohol intake and might have looked at the literature rather better than I have...
Peter - 26 Apr 2009, 12:39:00
- Nick said...
Hi Peter,
Thank you for your thoughtful response. I'm new to the LC diet - since February of this year, so I am still trying to sort out all the changes. I am still having cognitive dissonance with regard to eating any kind of fats beyond a certain amount, which means I am likely eating more protein than I need (8-10% carbs from dairy, nuts and vegetables). I don't eat any PUFA oils unless unwittingly when I am in a restaurant.
My experience mirrors yours with regard to alcohol, except I have to be very careful to eat when I drink, as alcohol can send my blood sugar very low, which I originally mistook for feeling under the influence.
I recently read Cordain's book after browsing Stephan's nutrition hall of fame. Other than his dated opinion of saturated fats, I noticed two pieces of information that I have not seen on any of the LC blogs -- that testosterone is reduced on an LC diet and that highish salt intake disturbs sleep.
Both topics are interesting to me and I wonder if there has been much discussion about each, though sleep is a very complicated subject. I would swear that my libido has decreased with the LC diet (though I suspect simultaneously giving up my 3x weekly three mile sprint/jogs may be more telling in this regard).
Thanks again. - 28 Apr 2009, 14:59:00
- Peter said...
Hmmm, I was unaware of any lowering of testosterone on LC unless it is accompanied by a fall in testosterone binding protein, which then increases free testosterone. I think I read this somewhere, maybe 5 years ago. I think if loss of libido was a routine feature of LC eating the Ornishes and his like would have made very sure we all knew about it! I have to say it's not an effect either my wife or I have noticed.
As LC fixes PCOS I don't see why it should fix one problem and cause another....
Cordain is the weirdest guy. If he says something is so, I want to read the studies myself, in detail. He is undoubtedly being rehabilitated on the net after his idiocity on saturated fats, but he still has his name on some pretty unsavoury pro statin papers.
Personally I'm eating about 10% of calories as protein (my diet is adequate protein, lowish but not ketogenic carbs and high saturated fat) and because I eat real food my only real sources of salt are cheese and bacon. Obviously, I'm not paleo, but I listen to what paleo tells me. I doubt I'm high salt or low enough carb to have problems (phew).
Why dairy and not full paleo? The gifts to humans from plants are accidents or poisons. The gifts from cows are health giving to a calf, it's own genes. I steal that health....
Peter - 28 Apr 2009, 15:34:00
- gallier2 said...
The loss of libido was also something I noticed personaly when I went LC. But, it was only transitional, after some time it got again as it was before. I suppose it has to do with the change in metabolism, not with the food itself.
- 29 Apr 2009, 09:22:00
- Peter said...
Hmmm, maybe like the hair loss that some people get. Can be spectacular but transient...
Peter - 29 Apr 2009, 10:14:00
- Unknown said...
Hi, where can I get the original data used in this post? Could you send me the articles you used in the post.
firstname.lastname@example.com - 26 Oct 2009, 22:09:00
- Jonathan said...
@ the first graph: Excel will do a smooth line. Choose Scatter Data with Smooth Line.
- 5 Apr 2010, 18:31:00
- Unknown said...
Only a naive person would look at that last graph and assume that there's no connection between high cholesterol and heart disease. There are simply other factors at work here. Russia, Northern Ireland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic have very high rates of alcoholism, and countries like Iceland, Belgium, and Switzerland have excellent health care systems. The Swiss also live at a high altitude which is said to confer cardioprotective benefits. And a time lag explains the famous French Paradox, in addition to the undercertification of heart disease deaths in France:
Some words on Ancel Keys:
1. Keys selected the six countries because they were the only ones with reliable data which conformed to international standards. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unH-AEDKV8s)
2. You reference Yerushalmy and Hilleboe. Why do you fail to acknowledge the crux of their paper, that other factors correlated with ischemic heart disease better than total fat consumption, chiefly animal protein?
3. Where did you get your data showing low rates of CHD deaths in the Inuits, Masai, Rendille, and Tokelauans? And since these are isolated hunter-gatherer populations, how can you be sure they're not succumbing to heart disease because they simply die of other causes first like infectious diseases and malnutrition? - 16 Jan 2013, 03:11:00
- Zeta's Blog said...
I've come back to all your posts because of Denise Minger's recent backflip on AHS14, "What we can learn from the vegans". I was quite concerned after viewing her performance because for a few days I was worried about my high fat intake. I'm currently going through your data because when I dropped my fat intake my hunger skyrocketted and my weight has increased 5 kg, practically 1 kg per week.
- 3 Dec 2014, 00:02:00


text: Talk about authenticity! To find musicians to fill the folksy cast of Once, producers of the forthcoming West End production of the Tony-winning musical looked to the streets of Dublin for singers and actors with a genuinely Irish sound. Open auditions for the show (which starts at the Phoenix Theatre on March 16, 2013) were held at Whelan's, one of Ireland's most famous pubs—and one that certainly hearkens back to the Broadway production's award-winning set design. So did the creative team of Once find what it was looking for when it went "home" to Dublin? We'll find out if we see some of these shining faces lighting up the West End next spring!


text:
Air Force police illegally detain 14-year-old, relatives after allegations of theft.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, April 29 (Compass Direct News) — Local authorities on Monday (April 26) recovered a 14-year-old Christian girl from Pakistan Air Force (PAF) police who allegedly tortured her and her family for five days here as Christian "soft targets" over false theft allegations, sources said.
Islamabad police in predominantly Sunni Muslim Pakistan removed Sumera Pervaiz from a PAF hospital, where she was recovering from injuries that a doctor said could cripple her for life. Earlier this month, according to family and police sources, PAF police were said to have illegally detained her and members of her family after PAF Wing Commander Faheem Cheema, who had hired Sumera as a maid, found gold ornaments and other valuables missing from his home in PAF Colony, Islamabad.
Cheema filed a theft complaint with local police without naming any suspects, but without informing local officers the wing commander on April 15 allegedly directed PAF police to detain Sumera and four members of her family — Pervaiz Masih, Sana Bibi, Parveen Masih and Kala Masih — who live in PAF Colony in Islamabad. PAF police allegedly failed to inform local police about detaining the family.
Cheema has denied that he ordered PAF police to detain the girl and her family members.
When District and Session Court Judge Mazhar Hussain Barlas ordered Sumera to appear at a hearing on April 22, she testified that on April 15 three persons who were not in uniform arrived at her house at midnight and detained her, her father Pervaiz Masih and the other family members.
"For many days we remained in the custody of those people, who severely tortured me during their 'interrogation,'" she said.
When the judge asked her who had brought her to the PAF hospital, she replied that during questioning she had lost consciousness and later found herself in the hospital.
"So I don't know who brought me there," she said.
Because of injuries sustained during torture, Sumera is barely able to walk, said Dr. Nusrat Saleem of the PAF hospital.
"Sumera is under treatment, we are trying our best, but unfortunately the reports indicate that she might not be able to walk for the rest of her life," Saleem told Compass.
The Pervaiz family's Roman Catholic parish priest, Samuel James, said that the theft accusation, illegal detainment and torture would not have happened to fellow Muslims.
"I am really disturbed to see that this innocent family has been severely tortured by the police," he said. "They have been targeted because of their faith."
At the April 22 hearing, Sumera testified that as PAF police were questioning her, she saw her brother Imran Pervaiz also was there. The judge instructed the court to take note that PAF police had also taken her brother into custody.
In denying that he had ordered PAF to detain Sumera and her family members, Cheema reportedly said, "I don't know anything about the illegal detention of the family, nor have I asked the police to interrogate them. They detained the family and tortured them on their own."
Inspector Saleem Khan of the PAF police, however, indicated otherwise.
"Faheem's family expressed their doubts about Sumera and her family, saying they are Christians and don't belong in PAF Colony," he said.
Initially police had tried to keep Sumera from testifying, with Station House Officer Mumtaz Sheikh telling the court, "Sumera's health doesn't allow her to come in the court, and she was therefore admitted in the PAF Hospital."
The family's attorneys, Jamila Aslam and Shamoona Javid, replied that their client was in the hospital because she had been tortured and requested that the judge direct that she be produced in court. Barlas so ordered, and a few hours later police brought her from the PAF hospital. It was the judge also who ordered that she and her family members be removed from PAF hospital custody on Monday (April 26).
Barlas also directed police to produce Sumera's brother, Imran Pervaiz, before the court, saying that failure to do so would result in an order for police to file a First Information Report against Cheema based on testimony by Sumera and her father.
The judge also directed police to ensure that Sumera gets a medical exam, with the results to be shown to the court.
Christian organizations including Ephlal Ministry, Peace Pakistan, Protect Foundation, Life for All and others have condemned the incident. Ephlal Ministry Chairman Mehboob Alam has called on other Christian leaders to assist the family, as they have been evicted from their PAF quarters.


text:
Guest Blog Post: In Praise of Ripening
Posted by Victoria Strauss for Writer Beware
When I began doing research for the Writer Beware website in 1998, Marcia Yudkin's invaluable article on recognizing writing scams was among the first resources that I discovered. In this week's guest blog post, Marcia takes a look at a different issue, but one of equal importance to aspiring writers: taking the time to learn your craft before diving into the ever-more-easily-accessible world of publishing.
"Write a Book in a Weekend!"
"Write a Book Without Lifting a Finger!"
We have seen ridiculous headlines like these online for years, but a new variant from the Get Rich Quick world has sprung up, threatening much greater harm to vulnerable wannabees and to all of us who value writing worth reading.
The word has gone out that Kindle publishing is a great way to make money fast. Churn out a short novel or how-to text with series potential, follow up quickly with a sequel, price the ebooks at $.99 or $2.99, enroll in Amazon's KDP Select program and go for as many downloads as possible during your five free days. Then sit back and enjoy huge monetary success.
Advice for making a killing on Kindle emphasizes market research, speed and quantity. I have been watching a group of beginning fiction writers trade stories about novelists whose Kindle originals became best sellers, creating an end run around the confines of traditional publishing. They share tips on how to write 20 pages a day, congratulate each other on finishing and then publishing their first draft, post five-star reviews for one another (sometimes without reading the work in question) and then discuss how to bury negative reviews that disparage their work as boring and soulless.
Rarely mentioned in these circles are tips on how to write a better book. On the contrary, they applaud the attitude of John Locke, author of How I Sold 1 Million eBooks in 5 Months: "Your book doesn't have to be world-class. You just have to write well enough to sell lots of books." Locke admits he doesn't know anything about plotting, narrative or dialogue, and he is proud of not letting that stop him.
Such a know-nothing stance perpetuates a notion that effective writing can be instinctive. True, there's probably one in a million who has a knack for writing that takes him or her far without any study or instruction. However, most of us improve in writing, as in music or acting or gymnastics, only when we have concepts for understanding what we're doing and direction from those more experienced.
When I was an aspiring fiction writer, long ago, I attended writers' conferences and studied books like Meredith and Fitzgerald's Structuring Your Novel to learn how to craft satisfying plots and characters in a style that was free of telltale amateur moves. I learned why it was probably not a good idea to start a story with someone awakened by an alarm clock or a bad dream. I discovered how to avoid character stereotypes and mixed metaphors, the importance of a consistent point of view and ways to start a story with strong narrative momentum. When you skip all that, you inevitably – and unnecessarily – inflict a clumsy reading experience on buyers.
And by skipping writers' workshops, classes or critique circles, you miss out on a crucial wake-up call that every author needs in order to mature as a communicator. This is the shock of discovering that what you meant in a certain sentence, paragraph or passage of your writing did not come across as you intended, and maybe even came across as the opposite of what you meant. In the light of this jarring revelation, you realize that readers aren't stupid and that it's your responsibility to take into account their expectations and ideas about language and the world. Then you have the foundation for becoming an ever-better storyteller and wordsmith.
Also missing from the Get Rich Quick paradigm for authors is a role for feedback from teachers, mentors and editors. I'll never forget a workshop leader handing me a chapter I wrote with dozens of red-ink crossouts on every page. "Listen, I haven't butchered your work. I've only shaved it," he said. "See how much stronger it is without all the extra words." Likewise, I have learned so much from my editors – lessons about word order, pacing, punctuation, closing story loops and much more. John Locke does say he spent $2,000 early on for a critique from an editor and profited greatly from the assessment of his strengths and weaknesses.
Even so, I lean more toward the wisdom of something I heard novelist Sue Grafton say once at a conference. "I figured writing books was at least as hard as being a doctor, and since medical school is five years, I gave myself five years to learn how to write a novel," she said, acknowledging that this was not something beginners liked to hear. Similarly, the most recent issue of Writer's Digest quotes Chris Cleave, best-selling author of Little Bee, saying that his writing process includes "weeks where I'm working but nothing great is coming out, and then I'll have this insight into how I need to throw away 20,000 words and rewrite them."
You won't ever find folks who tout ebooks as a route to easy riches talking about studying for five years or throwing away such a large chunk of effort. And that's why, with the absence of any gatekeepers and the lack of respect for quality in their publishing model, readers and writers everywhere stand to suffer. As the current trend spreads, we risk having literary marketplaces that are drowning in unripened works, making it harder for superb new writers who deserve attention to find readers.
Publication of clunky first drafts harms those authors as well. Pre-Kindle, eager writers had to spend much longer in the learning phase. Beginning writers could self-publish in paperback, but the expenses involved deterred most neophytes until they were certain they had something that merited the investment. Publishing on Kindle, however, costs little or nothing, encouraging novices who don't have a clue about their amateurishness to publish half-baked embarrassments. Then instead of improving from feedback in workshops or from teachers, they will get hammered by most readers and quit or get acclaimed by a small, uncritical audience. Either way, the belief that craft is not worth their time gets reinforced.
If you care about good writing, please help me spread the word that both authors and the public are better served by learning to write well before getting published. The money earned by letting your skill ripen is probably greater and more reliable. You would just get rich more slowly – and enjoy the intrinsic delights of excellence along the way.
Marcia Yudkin's 16 paperbacks include a Book of the Month Club selection from HarperCollins and two self-help titles that were featured on the Oprah Winfrey Show. Her short stories have appeared in both literary and high-circulation magazines and she has delivered commentaries on National Public Radio. She teaches a course for nonfiction writers who want to join the ebook revolution while living up to traditional publishing standards: http://www.yudkin.com/kindle.htm.


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