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Bubble Psychology and Complicity in Financial Fraud
Matt Yglesias does write about things other than monetary policy and zoning regulation. Today, he's got a post up about the relationship of fraud to credit bubbles:
Federal Reserve governor Jeremy Stein has a learned talk out today about the need to take an "institutional view" of credit market dynamics. There are a lot of stylized models out there in which credit intermediation institutions basically don't exist, and the volume of credit is simply determined by fluctuations in household and firm preferences. He argues that you have to think about the way the institutions actually function and the incentives facing actors within them.
Specifically, he notes "three factors that can contribute to overheating" in credit markets.
One is "financial innovation." The second is "changes in regulation … new loopholes … exploited by variants on already existing instruments." The third is "a change in the economic environment that alters the risk-taking incentives … a prolonged period of low interest rates … 'reach for yield.'"
And fair enough. But here's some evidence that's emerged from litigation between Dexia, a large Belgian bank that lost a ton of money buying mortgage-backed securities from JPMorgan and also from two banks that JPMorgan has since acquired:
According to the court documents, an analysis for JPMorgan in September 2006 found that "nearly half of the sample pool" — or 214 loans — were "defective," meaning they did not meet the underwriting standards. The borrowers' incomes, the firms found, were dangerously low relative to the size of their mortgages. Another troubling report in 2006 discovered that thousands of borrowers had already fallen behind on their payments.
But JPMorgan at times dismissed the critical assessments or altered them, the documents show. Certain JPMorgan employees, including the bankers who assembled the mortgages and the due diligence managers, had the power to ignore or veto bad reviews. […]
In other words: JPMorgan – and other banks in the mortgage derivatives business – had powerful incentives to commit what looks like fraud (though Yglesias is careful to note that he isn't equipped to speak to the question of legal liability).
The thing to remember, though, is that the incentives for doing this sort of thing exist on both sides of the desk in any transaction. You would think that a buyer of a security would want full disclosure of all the risks, and the seller would want to hide potentially damaging information. And relative to some market benchmark, that's generally true – a less-scrupulous seller will try to get away with disclosing less than his competitors, a more conservative buyer to get more information than her competitors. But the benchmark itself moves, and both sides are complicit in moving it during bubbles – because in bubbles, market participants are more worried about missing out on profit opportunities than with incurring losses.
At the height of the bubble, if you brought a piece of paper to market with a high percentage of no-doc "liar" loans in the portfolio, the market would demand a higher interest rate because of the higher risk that these loans would go bad. But eventually the rate would be high enough that investors convinced themselves they were being compensated for that risk – and they wanted to convince themselves, because they needed the yield.
(Actually, that's not strictly true – at the very height of the bubble, perversely some of these deals would have been priced tighter than some other deals, because certain issues that were included on common "short" lists or that were included in indices had a more liquid credit-swap market associated with the paper, and that greater perceived liquidity – which appeared to reduce market risk – drove yields down to levels that did not reflect the underlying credit risk. But that's a wrinkle that cuts against a story that in general is correct.)
Ratings agencies benchmarked the quality of their work against each other. In a raging bull market, a single agency could grab market share by lowering standards, and the others would have to follow suit. The effect was observable within institutions as well, as the risk management departments of institutions couldn't get away with demanding tougher risk assessments than competitors, and legal departments couldn't get away with taking a more conservative view of proper disclosure. And everyone in the market, buyers and sellers, is subject to the same pressures.
There were, of course, plenty of instances of out and out fraud. But "consensual" fraud, where all parties know that there's more being left out than said, was vastly more common – indeed, was almost ubiquitous.
Yglesias concludes:
[I]t's clear that in economic terms we were dealing with a marketplace in which major vendors were concealing materially relevant information. The ability to get away with that kind of thing is a factor that can easily lead to overheating. After all, the actual creditworthiness of potential borrowers is a major constraint on the expansion of credit. If intermediaries believe they can get away with misstating the creditworthiness of borrowers (either through direct fraud or by covering up fraud on the part of the borrowers) then there's going to be a lending boom.
None of this is to undermine the stuff Stein does say, but there continues to be a big blind spot in the economics world to this stuff, even though there's more and more lawyering around it every day.
The lawyering is actually pretty important to restraining this kind of behavior. The prospect of a prison term concentrates the mind wonderfully – at least for a while. People will still commit out-and-out fraud, but the prevalence may go down, and, to the extent that a new bubble still emerges eventually, it might take just a little bit longer to get going. But, as I say, "consensual" fraud is a much bigger phenomenon than clear-cut lawbreaking. To the extent that buyers succeed in suing sellers over this kind of thing, that'll make sellers more cautious next time – but it'll make buyers more complacent, and more willing to encourage sellers to tell them what they want to hear. So I'm not sure, in the end, lawsuits will do much to restrain the biggest driver of misinformation.
Similarly, an agency designed to protect the consumer in these transactions could do real good (if properly staffed) inasmuch as it might compensate for the massive information asymmetry between consumers and financial professionals. But the kinds of transactions Yglesias is talking about take place between "big boys," where even if there are information asymmetries (and there always are), there's no suggestion that they should be regulated away (nor is it obvious how they could be). And anyway, inasmuch as much of the fraud that takes place at that level is "consensual," regulation would have the same effect as a legal regime tilted more towards buyers: it would encourage greater vigilance by sellers, but laxer vigilance by buyers, and it's hard to know what the net effect would be.
So the key word is "ability." In any bull market, the willingness of intermediaries to "conceal materially relevant information" goes up, and so does the willingness of risk-takers to let that information be concealed. It's very hard to regulate away that behavior – doing so would be tantamount to regulating away bubble psychology. But how possible it is to conceal this kind of information is a function not only of the regulatory environment (which also gets laxer during bubbles – bubble psychology works on regulators, too) but of the nature of the products themselves. Credit securitization provided multiple opportunities to inaccurately represent risk, each of which was seized by somebody, and which collectively resulted in a much more substantial mis-representation than would have been the case with simpler products.
I'd be interested to know whether there's any academic literature addressing this question of opacity/complexity and its relationship to bubbles.


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Following a similar pop-psych analysis of Batman and his foes, here are Alan Moore's Watchmen, and their personality disorders. Check it out and pitch in your differential diagnoses:
Adrian Veidt/Ozymandias
Adrian draws inspiration from Alexander the Great and the Egyptian Pharoah Ozymandias. Referred to as the "smartest man in the world," Adrian generally looks down at humanity, and sees them as expendable in light of his plans. Under the DSM IV, his behaviour qualifies him under Narcissistic Personality Disorder, or "a pervasive pattern of grandiosity, need for admiration, and a lack of empathy."
Dan, I'm not a Republic serial villain. Do you seriously think I'd explain my master-stroke if there remained the slightest chance of you affecting its outcome? I did it thirty-five minutes ago.
Daniel Dreiberg/Nite Owl II
Daniel is disillusioned by the life of a superhero, and considers himself helpless and impotent against the changes in history. Dan can be considered as suffering from Avoidant or Anxious Personality Disorder, characterized as "a pervasive pattern of social inhibition, feelings of inadequacy, extreme sensitivity to negative evaluation and avoidance of social interaction".
Y'know, this must be how ordinary people feel. This must be how ordinary people feel around us.
Edward Blake/The Comedian
Edward Blake is described as a ruthless, cynical, and nihilistic person, but capable of deeper insights into the role of a costumed super-hero. In 1940, he even attempted to rape his co-hero Silk Spectre in a fit of lust. The Comedian could be suffering from Antisocial Personality Disorder, or a pervasive pattern of disregard for, and violation of, the rights of others that begins in childhood or early adolescence and continues into adulthood. Those with this disorder are referred to as sociopaths and psychopaths.
Once you realize what a joke everything is, being the Comedian is the only thing that makes sense.
Jon Osterman/Doctor Manhattan
When Jon Osterman was caught in a freak accident, he was transformed into a godly being who slowly lost interest in human emotions and affairs. He views the universe from a quantum level, and time as simultaneous possibilities rather than linear events–all of which alienates him from people around him. If Jon was still human, he would be considered as a candidate for Schizoid Personality Disorder or a lack of interest in social relationships, a tendency towards a solitary lifestyle, secretiveness, and emotional coldness.
A live body and a dead body contain the same number of particles. Structurally, there's no discernible difference. Life and death are unquantifiable abstracts. Why should I be concerned?
Laurie Juspeczyk/Silk Spectre II
Laurie is the daughter of the original Silk Spectre, and estranged lover to Dr. Manhattan. After being alienated from Jon Osterman, she starts a romance with Dan Dreiberg to catch the attention she craves for. Although her case is not as extreme as the other Watchmen, she could be suffering from Histrionic Personality tendencies, or an excessive pattern of emotionality and attention-seeking behavior. These individuals are lively, dramatic, enthusiastic, and flirtatious. They may be inappropriately sexually provocative, express strong emotions with an impressionistic style, and be easily influenced by others.
What else have you got in there? Chocolate rations? Boy Scout knife? Army-issue contraceptives?
Walter Kovacs/Rorschach
Walter Kovacs sees existence as random and the world as immoral. He takes it upon himself to impose his idea of good on the world around him and pursues this mission with relentless passion. Due to extreme traumas in childhood, Kovacs might have developed Paranoid Personality Disorder. Those with paranoid personality disorder are hypersensitive, are easily slighted, and habitually relate to the world by vigilant scanning of the environment for clues or suggestions to validate their prejudicial ideas or biases. They tend to be guarded and suspicious and have quite constricted emotional lives. Their incapacity for meaningful emotional involvement and the general pattern of isolated withdrawal often lend a quality of schizoid isolation to their life experience.
Why does one death matter against so many? Because there is good and there is evil, and evil must be punished. Even in the face of Armageddon I shall not compromise in this.

subset: commoncrawl


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Google's released its twice-yearly transparency report, and there's one message within it that rings loud and clear: the US government is spying on us harder than ever.
Seems the search giant is increasingly being asked to hand over user data and remove content by governments and courts from around the world. As Google explains:
[G]overnment demands for user data have increased steadily since we first launched the Transparency Report. In the first half of 2012, there were 20,938 inquiries from government entities around the world. Those requests were for information about 34,614 accounts...
The number of government requests to remove content from our services was largely flat from 2009 to 2011. But it's spiked in this reporting period. In the first half of 2012, there were 1,791 requests from government officials around the world to remove 17,746 pieces of content
The report goes further, breaking down the figures by country of origin. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the US leads in terms of user data inquiries with 7,969 requests—that's more than three times as many as India, the next country on the list.
For its part, Google tends to stand its ground where it can, vetting each and every case. You'll be pleased to hear that the figures for data handed over and takedowns actually performed are significantly lower than the number of requests. Fine work, Google. You can read the full report here. [Google via TechRadar]
Image by Tischenko Irina/Shutterstock


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'MacGruber' tries to overcome stigma of SNL movies
NEW YORK (AP) -- When "Saturday Night Live" characters journey from sketch to screen, they often appear lost away from their live studio habitat.
The first "SNL" movie, 1980's "The Blues Brothers," was also the best, as anyone who recalls the "two honkies dressed like Hasidic diamond merchants" can attest.
Since then, there's been "Wayne's World," but most of the adaptations have resulted in films like "Coneheads" (1993) and "It's Pat" (1994). Others like Molly Shannon's "Superstar" (1999) and Chris Kattan and Will Ferrell's "A Night at the Roxbury" (1998) have their cult defenders, but the big-screen "SNL" output has been checkered at best.
Sometimes, a character hasn't seemed quite deserving of movie-length attention (see Stuart Smalley, played by Al Franken, in 1995's "Stuart Saves His Family"). Other times, the adaptations have struggled to go beyond the original one-joke premise (see Tim Meadows' 2000 film "The Ladies' Man").
Enter "MacGruber."
Little about Will Forte's parody of the '80s adventure series "MacGyver" would seem befitting big-screen adaptation. Since the sketches began airing in January 2007, they've been remarkably similar: MacGruber gets distracted while assembling household items to try to deactivate a ticking time bomb. He and his assistants explode in a perfectly timed finale.
Forte, himself, never thought the sketches had any cinematic viability. Yet when he was approached about making "MacGruber" into a film, he couldn't turn it down.
The resulting movie, which opens Friday, is very much an "SNL" creation: It's produced by Lorne Michaels, directed by "SNL" writer Jorma Taccone, and written by Forte, Taccone and John Solomon, another writer on the show.
"Some people have already developed opinions one way or another about 'SNL' movies," Forte said. "I hope they give it a chance."
One thing going for it: "MacGruber," the film, doesn't feel like a 90-minute sketch. Forte and company expanded the story into an '80s action film parody. MacGruber never leaves his red Miata without his car stereo, on which he blasts Toto and Mr. Mister.
"People seem to want to throw this into this 'SNL' bag, which is great if they're talking about 'Blues Brothers' or 'Wayne's World,' but might not be great if they're talking about other movies," says Forte. "We never were looking at this as an 'SNL' movie, we were just looking at this as a movie."
They kept "the character and the clothes and the attitude and nothing else," Forte says.
"From a very early point in the writing process, we realized that if we just went for 90 minutes doing the sketch over and over again, people would get sick of it after about 90 seconds," he says.
Though Forte, a former writer for the "Late Show with David Letterman" and "3rd Rock from the Sun," temporarily succeeded Will Ferrell in playing former President George W. Bush, his contributions since joining the show in 2002 have generally leaned away from the topical and toward the absurd.
One of his early characters was Tim Calhoun, an exceedingly soft-spoken and wooden politician. In one memorable sketch, he played the ponytailed lead singer of a morning talk show house band, leading them from soothing sounds to -- after downing a bottle of whiskey -- a primal jam, screaming, "Go Thunderbird Spirit!"
That odd sense of humor transfers to the R-rated "MacGruber." But the "SNL" process, which goes from a pitch meeting to a table-read to dress rehearsal before airing live, is constantly formed through feedback and audience reception.
Former "SNL" cast member Chris Kattan, who played characters like Mango and Mr. Peepers, also had a surreal quality on the show. Like Forte, he came up through the Groundlings, the Los Angeles improv comedy troupe.
Kattan said the adaptation process was considerable for "A Night at the Roxbury"; the sketch's head-bopping characters basically didn't talk, so they needed voices. He and Ferrell, he says, "had no idea" and went into the process "just along for the ride."
"You have to trust the character and trust the story line and trust that it's OK that you're not going to get laughs every two-seconds," says Kattan. "That's hard at first to get used to because you're trained on the Groundlings and on 'SNL' to get laughs every five-seconds."
Kattan was surprised the Roxbury guys were chosen to be made into a film, though he believes a guest appearance by Jim Carrey sparked the spinoff. The "MacGruber" sketches similarly received a boost when they were used for a Pepsi Super Bowl commercial. Relativity Media took up producing the film, which Universal Pictures is distributing.
There haven't been any "SNL" spinoffs since "Ladies Man," but Michaels has helped find other, often fruitful avenues for "SNL" talent.
With Tina Fey, he produced the films "Mean Girls" and "Baby Mama," and her acclaimed TV series "30 Rock." He produced the film "Hot Rod" with Andy Samberg, and is executive producer of "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon."
"I tend to want to work with the comedy people who I share I sensibility with," says Michaels. "It's much more driven by that than any other kind of consequence."
Michaels, too, divorces "MacGruber" from any previous "SNL" spinoffs.
"I don't think you can compare it to anything that's come before," says Michaels. "I would only make one of these movies if I thought there was more to it than we were able to do on the show."


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This page needs updating for the migration to GIT.
- 1 Getting Setup as a Contributor
- 2 Development
- 2.1 Maintaining Tickets
- 2.2 Pull Requests (GIT)
- 2.3 Branching and Merging (GIT)
- 2.4 Continuous Integration (CI)
- 2.4.1 Jenkins Configuration
- 2.4.2 Getting thread dumps
- 2.4.3 Initiating a CI Run from GitHub
- 2.4.4 Unit tests
- 2.4.5 Hunting resource leaks in CI
- 2.5 Intellectual Property
- 3 Coding Style, Copyright comment blocks, and related matters.
- 4 Developer Setups
Getting Setup as a Contributor
Contributor Agreements
If you are interested in being a contributor, we will need you to complete a contributor agreement. Please contract the project managers for more details.
In order to have wiki edit permission, someone with wiki admin permissions has to edit the privileges for your sourceforge username on the wiki [1]
Developer Email List
Please use the developer email list to communicate about project development issues. This will help us to create artifacts which will be of use to people who are interested in getting involved in the future. Membership in this list is restricted to project developers, but the list is archived and searchable by anyone.
Use this like to subscribe to the developers list:
Use this email address to post to the list:
The list is archived and can be searched using this link:
Please note that your email server MUST accept mail for the postmaster account or the list serve will reject your posts (the postmaster account is part of the email RFCs and the list serve software insists that it exist).
Commit Email List
Developers interested in observing the commit traffic may subscribe to this list. Membership in this list is restricted to project developers, but the list is archived and searchable by anyone.
You MUST specify your sourceforge email address for the commit email list subscription since that is what is associated with your commits.
Use this link to subscribe to the list:
Use this email address to post to the list:
The list is archived and can be searched using this link:
Please note that your email server MUST accept mail for the postmaster account or the list serve will reject your posts (the postmaster account is part of the email RFCs and the list serve software insists that it exist).
Help Forum
Please monitor the help forum. Help is provided using a forum so that anyone can post regardless of whether their mail server is setup correctly (this is lower bar for entry when compared to the developers list serve).
Trac (Issue tracker)
In order to receive notice for issue updates you need to log into trac, go to the "Preferences" section and then set your email address so it will pester you.
See [trac.bigdata.com]
SVN Committers
In order to enable automatic completion of properties, SVN committers must enable auto-props on their local client. This is done by editing Subversions's "config" file. Where you find that file depends on your platform.
Windows : <UserDir>/ApplicationData/Subversion/ Un*x : ~/.subversion/ OS-X : ~/.subversion/
The following line is disabled by default for Subversion. Just uncomment it in your config file.
enable-auto-props = yes
*.java = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.cfg = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.config = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.sh = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.xml = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.html = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.txt = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL *.properties = svn:keywords=Id Date Revision Author HeadURL
This enables auto-props for new files only. If there are existing files without the svn:keywords property then that keyword must be added to those files explicitly. This can be done using Team > Set Properties in the eclipse UI or using svn setprop on the command line.
See The SVN Manual
The main development branch should remain stable at all times. Releases are tagged as branches for maintenance. Major change sets should be created in branches (see below). Discussion regarding the project should take place on the developers list so everyone can participate and benefit.
Consistency and coherence in the architecture and the implementation is critical for databases correctness and performance. Coordinate with component owners before making changes to those components. When in doubt, ask first on the developers list. Final resolution for questions concerning the database architecture will be made by the project administrators.
Maintaining Tickets
Issues are maintained on jira.blazegraph.com.
Developers must:
- file an issue on jira.blazegraph.com for any planned work;
- accept the issue before making changes; and
- update the status for accepted issues at least weekly (Friday morning).
This provides everyone with oversight on planned and active change sets via the jira dashboard and makes it easier to minimize conflicts in the code base.
Note: The older trac system can be accessed at trac.bigdata.com. This system is read-only. See the mapping of trac tickets to jira if you need to cross walk a ticket backward or forward between these systems.
Pull Requests (GIT)
The proper process for getting changes into the code base is:
- Discuss the feature on the mailing list (email@example.com). Do this first to make sure that the concept has traction with the developer community. Make sure that you are subscribed to the mailing list first since it will not accept email if you are not subscribed.
- Create a ticket for the feature.
- Create a feature branch.
- Do your work in that branch.
- Make sure that you have not broken the tests.
- Create a pull request.
- Email email@example.com with the pull request (make sure that you are subscribed to the mailing list first).
Do not commit to the master. Changes will be merged to master from the pull request by one of the project maintainers.
Branching and Merging (GIT)
We strongly recommend taking an hour to work through a Git tutorial:
Branching and merging is much, much easier under git. If you want to create your own new branch:
git checkout -b my_branchIf you want to checkout out someone else's branch:
git checkout --track origin/daves_branchTo revert to master
git checkout masterNote: The following will put you in a detached head state where your local repository will not track the remote repository.
git checkout origin/masterThis is generally undesirable. To recover from this do
git checkout masterTo checkout a tagged release, do the following. Again, this puts you in a detached head state so do
git checkout masterto get back to master.
git checkout tags/BIGDATA_RELEASE_1_5_0
Private Branches (Sandboxes)
Individual developers interested in exploring new concepts may create a private branch to serve as a sandbox in which they can explore those ideas without introducing changes into the trunk.
To discard all changes and revert to a previous commit
Find the commit point to restore (or just look at github).
git log
Reset to that commit point:
git reset --hard FULL-COMMIT-HASH
Continuous Integration (CI)
CI results are available at [2]. You can download the result of test suite runs. There is an additional artifact for analyzing the logs for the HA CI test suite. If you need a specific branch to be entered into CI, please contact one of the project admins or if you have GitHub Access try the guide below.
Jenkins Configuration
Jenkins is accessed using your GitHub credentials. It is configured to pull automatically from GitHub and spawn up to four EC2 instances dynamically to handle the workload of CI. The authentication is tied to the Github credentials. In general, you should not need to create new Jenkins jobs as the CI should be run through the Github Pull Request integration.
Know Good JVM Settings
ANT_OPTIONS="-XX:MaxPermSize=256m -Dfile.encoding=UTF-8 -Xmx8g -server -Dsun.jnu.encoding=UTF-8"
The maven options are set in the global Jenkins configuration, but are also included here for reference.
MAVEN_OPTIONS="-XX:MaxPermSize=256m -Dfile.encoding=UTF-8 -Xmx8g -server -Dsun.jnu.encoding=UTF-8"
Getting thread dumps
To get a thread dump, you must have your SSH public key installed on the Jenkins SSH Slave EC2 image. Create a JIRA ticket to make this request and include your public ssh key. Then, determine the SLAVE IP that ran the job and ssh directly to the machine to grab the thread dump.
Generating an SSH Public Key
ssh-keygen -t rsa -b 2048 -f ~/.ssh/blazegraph
Hit enter twice for a blank pass phrase or choose one.
cat ~/.ssh/blazegraph.pub
Include the output of your public key in the JIRA ticket.
Initiating a CI Run from GitHub
To initiate a CI run from GitHub, first create a Pull Request (PR) from GitHub. The CI job will run automatically. If you need to retest without a code change, in the comment of the PR, include the text Computer, please test this. This will trigger an automatic CI run in Jenkins. The results will be posted back into the PR and you can take an appropriate action based on the results of the CI (Success, Failure, Error).
Unit tests
Bigdata has a large and growing test suite. Whether you code the unit tests first or after, do not commit code without writing a test suite for that code and verifying the test suite for your changes plus any affected modules. When in doubt, ask or run the entire test suite. After you commit, please review the CI results to see if you have broken anything.
Proxy Test Suites
Some of the test suites in use a "proxy" pattern to allow the same test suite to execute against different implementations or parameterizations of a given implementation. This feature is heavily used to:
- exercise different backend storage models (the RWStore, MemStore, etc.);
- run (nearly identical) test suites in triples vs RDR vs quads modes; and
- exercise the REST API test suite against both embedded and scale-out architectures.
You can specify the delegate for the proxy using
You may need to hunt around a little bit (typically in the TestAll suite) to figure out what are the different proxy class names that you can use on a given proxy test suite. Some of the common ones are:
- TestBigdataSailWithQuads
- TestLocalTripleStore
- TestRWJournal
- TestWORMStrategy
- TestNanoSparqlServerWithProxyIndexManager.
Running the test suite with maven
You can run the entire test suite using:
mvn clean package
You can run the tests in an individual class in the test suite using:
mvn clean package -Dtest=com.bigdata.journal.jini.ha.TestHA1GroupCommit
An example using the proxy test suite from the command line:
mvn -DtestClass=com.bigdata.rdf.sail.webapp.TestNanoSparqlServerWithProxyIndexManager -Dtest=Test_REST_ASK test
Running the test suite with eclipse =
Many of the test suites can be run directly under eclipse. However some of the test suites do have dependencies on external services that must be running before the tests are executed:
- HA depends on the river ClassServer and LookupStarter
- Scale-out depends on the river ClassServer and LookupStarter
- The external text index feature depends on SOLR
These external resources are setup through the maven POM associated with the appropriate projects. You can also start these resources yourself and there are examples on how to do this at the bottom of this page for HA/scale-out.
Hunting resource leaks in CI
Add this to Manage Jenkins => Configure under "Global Properties" "Environment variables". The specific path depends on the version of yourkit that is installed on the CI node.
LD_LIBRARY_PATH /nas/install/yjp-2014-build-14100/bin/linux-x86-64
Add this to the Advanced options for the jenkins project configuration, e.g., where it says "-server -ea" etc. This specific command begins the profiler with everything disabled. Once you connect to the process, you can then selectively enable things. Replace port=XXXXX is something like port=10001. This is the port that you will use to connect to yourkit. See http://yourkit.com/docs/75/help/getting_started/running_with_profiler/agent.jsp for the background on setting this up.
Setup local port forwarding for the CI machine and ssh into it. Again, replace XXXXX with the specific port.
# ~/.ssh/config Host ci.bigdata.com #... LocalForward XXXXX localhost:XXXX
You can then start yourkit locally and connect to the running CI job (if any).
Intellectual Property
Everyone who is a contributor is bound by a signed contributor license agreement (CLA).
Your own work
Your contributions MUST be your own work. DO NOT incorporate code from other projects or other sources. There MUST be an explicit contribution made the the copyright holders before 3rd party intellectual property may be incorporated into the project. Please refer any such matters to the project administrators.
The choice of a dependency is very important and must be made in consultation with the project administrators. In addition to choosing technically sound dependencies, there are also a number of legal rules that must be followed to properly acknowledge the copyright for the dependency and a number of administrative tasks that must be performed to ensure that the dependency is correctly integrated into development, CI, and the various deployment environments.
Adding a dependency
You MUST NOT add a dependency without contacting the project administrators.
The following all need to be addressed when adding a dependency:
|The dependency version number needs to be declared.
|The dependency needs to be integrated into the WAR, stage, bundleJar, and javadoc (external links), and various other deployment targets. This is both tricky and vital.
|The dependency needs to be declared.
|The dependency needs to be declared. This is responsible for generating the list of dependencies at runtime as part of the banner.
|The dependency needs to be placed into an appropriate library directory with the correct bigdata module. The choice of the module depends on the scope in which the dependency will be used.
|The license for the dependency must be placed into the LEGAL directory within the module in which the dependency is housed. The name of the license should include the name of the dependency. E.g., "jetty-license.txt". Many dependencies have the same license, but a separate license file MUST be present for each dependency.
|This file must include any text from a NOTICE file associated with the dependency. This is a requirement of the Apache license!
Updating a Dependency
You MUST verify that the license associated with a dependency has not changed BEFORE updating that dependency.
You MUST NOT update a dependency if there is has been license change. Instead, refer the matter to the project administrators.'
Head of file comment block
The correct comment block for the head of each source file is the GPL license block as follows:
/* Copyright (C) SYSTAP, LLC 2006-2014. All rights reserved. Contact: SYSTAP, LLC 4501 Tower Road Greensboro, NC 27410 firstname.lastname@example.com This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation; version 2 of the License. This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details. You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License along with this program; if not, write to the Free Software Foundation, Inc., 59 Temple Place, Suite 330, Boston, MA 02111-1307 USA */
Author Tags
Author tags should be provided on each class you create and on each class where you make major changes. This helps us to track who are the most knowledgeable people for a given class.
Please use the follow tags to mark todos in the code:
- FIXME - Encouraged for more important tasks.
- TODO - Encouraged for minor tasks or possible future directions in the code.
Margins and Code Formatting
- Set margins to 80 columns.
- Wrap comments and code at the margin.
- Set display width of tabs to 3 spaces.
- Set the editor to convert tabs to spaces (3).
Please do not broadly reformat existing code, especially code for which you are not the primary maintainer, since that makes it significantly more difficult to handle merges.
Conditional Logging
Each class which will have log output should declare its own logger. Loggers should be private, static, and final. Logging at INFO, DEBUG, or TRACE MUST be condition using the pattern:
if(log.isInfoEnabled() { log.info(...); }
Conditional logging is critical for performance. Generating log messages (when they are not directly given strings such as "Hello") produces a tremendous amount of heap churn from String concatenation. Heap churn is evil and must be avoided for performance. Hence, the conditional logging pattern.
System.out and System.err
Do NOT use either System.out or System.err in anything other than a main() routine. It is very difficult to locate the code where such output is being produced and unconditional output not only drives the heap, but it also clogs the CI servers since CI buffers the output of the test suite in memory during the test run.
Eclipse based developers can obtain colorization of their output using grep-console. The defaults colorize java.util.logging output. They can be edited (by removing the square brackets) to also colorize log4j colorizing.
Developer Setups
See ScaleOutCI for some notes on how to setup the scale-out architecture on a single machine.
HA Developers
Note: This is NOT the recommended way to DEPLOY HA. See the HAJournalServer page for deployment guidance. There are also some useful scripts in
src/resources/HAJournal that can be used to start the ClassServer and lookup service from the command line.
The following pattern can be used to instantiate 3 HA services on a local workstation. This is only recommended for developers. There are HAJournal configuration files that are designed to operate on the same machine. Assuming that you have bigdata checked out, these files are in the same directory as the HAJournal.java file. They are:
bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-A.config bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-B.config bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-C.config
Zookeeper must be running and is assumed to be at port 2081 on localhost. You can setup zookeeper by downloading it, creating a file conf/zoo.cfg similar to the following and then running
bin/zkServer.sh start
# The number of milliseconds of each tick tickTime=2000 # The number of ticks that the initial # synchronization phase can take initLimit=10 # The number of ticks that can pass between # sending a request and getting an acknowledgement syncLimit=5 # the directory where the snapshot is stored. dataDir=/var/tmp/zookeeper # the port at which the clients will connect clientPort=2081
java ... com.sun.jini.tool.ClassServer -verbose -stoppable -port 23333 -dir bigdata/lib-dl
The lookup service must be started and must use the same federation name as the HAJournal config files ("benchmark"). This example works within eclipse and references eclipse variables.
java ... \ -Djini.lib=${project_loc}/bigdata-jini/lib/jini/lib \ -Djini.lib.dl=${project_loc}/bigdata-jini/lib/jini/lib-dl \ -Djava.security.policy=${project_loc}/policy.all \ -Djava.security.debug=off \ -Djava.protocol.handler.pkgs=net.jini.url \ -Dlog4j.configuration=file:bigdata/src/resources/logging/log4j-dev.properties \ -Dcodebase.port=23333 \ -Djava.net.preferIPv4Stack=true \ -Dbigdata.fedname=benchmark \ -Ddefault.nic= \ -Dapp.home=${project_loc} \ com.bigdata.service.jini.util.LookupStarter
HA Services
You can start these services as follows. They will expose the REST API at ports 9999, 10000, and 10001 as specified in the commands below.
java \ -Djava.security.policy=policy.all \ -Djava.util.logging.config.file=bigdata/src/resources/logging/logging.properties \ -Dlog4j.configuration=bigdata/src/resources/logging/log4j-dev.properties \ -Djetty.port=9999 \ bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-A.config \ com.bigdata.journal.jini.ha.HAJournalServer \
java \ -Djava.security.policy=policy.all \ -Djava.util.logging.config.file=bigdata/src/resources/logging/logging.properties \ -Dlog4j.configuration=bigdata/src/resources/logging/log4j-dev.properties \ -Djetty.port=10000 \ bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-B.config \ com.bigdata.journal.jini.ha.HAJournalServer
java \ -Djava.security.policy=policy.all \ -Djava.util.logging.config.file=bigdata/src/resources/logging/logging.properties \ -Dlog4j.configuration=bigdata/src/resources/logging/log4j-dev.properties \ -Djetty.port=10001 \ bigdata-jini/src/java/com/bigdata/journal/jini/ha/HAJournal-C.config \ com.bigdata.journal.jini.ha.HAJournalServer
HA Test Suite
Regression tests for HA should be created here. You can just search for the
TestHAJournal.java class.


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I want to make a custom feed page* with the slug of 'feed', but when I try to save, Wordpress changes it to 'feed-2'.
Is there a way I can force Wordpress to let me use a slug of feed—or, if it's better practice, to hook my custom feed template* into the default Wordpress RSS feed generator? If the latter, what code do I need to substitute my own feed template for the default?
* The custom feed template I'm using is based on the useful code here: http://digwp.com/2011/08/custom-feeds/


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Learn how our essential services will continue to operate as we respond 'Together against COVID-19'.
The Department of Justice provides administrative and corporate support to NSW courts and tribunals.
Our courts are among the most efficient in Australia in terms of timeliness, disposal of matters and cost. Many court sites use innovative technology such as videoconferencing so that witnesses can give evidence from remote locations, without having to attend court.
In this section you can locate or learn about the nine courts and four tribunals in NSW, including the process if you need to go to one and your options to resolve disputes out of court.
Learn about the role of a court or tribunal and where your legal matter may be heard.
Role of NSW courts and tribunals
NSW Supreme Court
NSW District Court
NSW Land and Environment Court
NSW Local Court
NSW Coroner's Court
NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal (NCAT)
NSW Industrial Relations Commission
The Children's Court of NSW
All other NSW courts and tribunals
Have you been called for jury service? Find out what this means for you.
About jury service in NSW
The role of a jury
Have you received a Notice of Inclusion?
Being excused from jury service
Am I required for jury service tomorrow?
Find information about how to solve your problem without going to court.
What is alternative dispute resolution?
What types of ADR are available?
Find out how Community Justice Centres can help
Learn about programs that aim to break the substance abuse and crime cycle.
Court referral of eligible defendants into treatment (CREDIT)
Drug Court of NSW
Forum Sentencing
Life on Track
Magistrates early referral into treatment (MERIT)
Traffic offender intervention program (TOIPs)
Visit the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research website for statistics about NSW criminal court matters.
Criminal court statistics
Archived NSW criminal court statistics
The NSW criminal justice system structure
Use the court lists to find the time and place of your court appearance or to find out what is happening in the courtrooms on a particular date.
Search online court lists and sittings
Daily lists for all NSW courts and tribunals
Find out how to use our online services, including filing forms, viewing documents and tracking case progress.
Supreme, District and Local courts online services
NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal (NCAT) online services
NSW Land and Environment Court online services (e-Court)
Tomorrow's jury attendance lists
Video: how to view case information and file civil court forms online
Find the forms used in NSW courts and tribunals, and the fees for court services.
Court and tribunal forms
Court and tribunal fees
Find the judgment or decision of a particular court or tribunal and learn about sentencing in NSW.
Judgments and decisions
Coroner's Court findings
NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal
Sentencing in NSW
Find information to help you understand legal and court procedures before representing yourself in court.
What you should know
Legal dictionary
Need more help?
more info >
Find information about preparing for court, the facilities and access to support services.
Where to get legal advice
Preparing for court
Court facilities, support and access
Support for witnesses
Support for people from multicultural communities
Support for people with a disability
Find information about the court process.
What information can court staff give?
Who's who in court
During the court process
After the court has decided
Sentences, orders and judgments
Court transcripts
The NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal (NCAT) is the one-stop-shop for specialist tribunal services in NSW.
About NCAT
How matters are resolved in NCAT
The types of matters NCAT hears
Making an application to NCAT
Preparing for your hearing
NCAT facilities, support and access
Appealing NCAT decisions
Hearing lists: when and where are matters heard?


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Big sixth inning propels Rangers past ChiSox
Arlington, TX – Adrian Beltre capped Texas' six-run sixth inning with a two-run homer as the Rangers upended the Chicago White Sox, 10-6, in the opener of a three-game series.
Mitch Moreland went 3-for-3 with an RBI, Ian Kinsler had two hits, scored twice and knocked in a pair and Nelson Cruz and Jeff Baker belted back-to-back homers in the fourth inning for the victors.
"We all had big games tonight," Moreland said. "Hopefully we can have a few more of them."
The offensive explosion allowed Yu Darvish (5-1) to come away with a win despite allowing four runs on seven hits over six innings.
Dewayne Wise, after starting the season in a 2-for-22 slump, went 4-for-4 with a two-run homer while Adam Dunn added a solo shot in the White Sox's third straight loss.
Darvish's counterpart, Jose Quintana, only lasted five innings after surrendering four runs on eight hits, and the Rangers immediately broke open a 4-4 game against Chicago's bullpen in the sixth.
Geovany Soto worked a one-out walk against Matt Lindstrom (1-2) and scored from first when Moreland doubled off Donnie Veal into the gap in left-center. Moreland came around on Kinsler's base hit up the middle, and a single and walk loaded the bases with two outs.
Two consecutive wild pitches by Nate Jones pushed two more runs across before Beltre took Jones deep to left field to finish off the big inning.
"We gave them a few extra opportunities, and those are the ones that end up biting you," White Sox manager Robin Ventura said.
Dunn homered off Tanner Scheppers in the seventh, and Alexei Ramirez scored on Michael Kirkman's wild pitch in the eighth to pull Chicago within 10-6, but the Rangers held on to halt their first two-game losing streak of the season.
Over his first five starts, five of the six runs Darvish allowed came in the first inning. His early issues continued Tuesday as the White Sox struck for two out of the gate when Tyler Greene legged out a triple and scored on a base hit by Alex Rios, who crossed the plate on Paul Konerko's bloop single to right.
Cruz crushed a solo shot to left field on a 3-1 pitch in the fourth, and on the next pitch, Baker reached Greene's Hill beyond the center field wall for a 2-2 game.
Run-scoring hits by Kinsler and Elvis Andrus put Texas on top in the fifth, but in the next half-inning, Darvish hung a hanging breaking ball to Wise that was deposited into the right-field seats for a game-tying two-run homer. It was the first home run Darvish had allowed all season.
Game Notes
Darvish, who had an 18-inning scoreless streak coming in, struck out nine to up his season total to 58 ... Rangers catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who played eight seasons in Chicago, was sidelined due to an oblique injury ... The Rangers matched the second most wins in April in franchise history with 17. They won 18 in 1998 ... The Rangers are 8-1 in series openers this season ... Dunn has belted 12 homers in 24 career games against the Rangers.


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Votre panier est videBoutique
The BETT Awards are held in London every year with the most prominent players and stakeholders in education. The judges of the awards are known for their knowledge of ICT educational resources and selected from experienced teachers, education consultants and advisers, and high profile ICT journalists.
While the final ceremony will take place at the Troxy in London on 23rd January, the finalists were announced last week. This year Mozaik got shortlisted in not one, not two, but three different categories so we are truly honoured to get the chance to win it all with LabCamera, Mozaik3D app and mozaBook in 2019.
Our web-cam based science laboratory software, the LabCamera became Finalist in the category of "Classroom Aids for Learning, Teaching and Assessment" which is amazing since it was the first time that we entered Bett Awards with this compact, smart solution.Many of you may already know the program, but for those who haven't come across or tried LabCamera before, we prepared a short review of the main features here. Kinematics, Motion Cam, Microscope… no matter which area of science you're teaching, we put everything at your fingertips in one program and we are very thankful for the positive feedback we received from the reviewers.
Mozaik3D app is another first-timer among our products nominated to the award, so we are thrilled that it is running for the title of "Educational Apps" right off the bat. Mozaik3D app is available for Android devices and can be considered as the next step in the evolution of another application, called mozaWeb 3D viewer: all the 1200+ 3D animations in one place, login, subscription, filters, 3D infosheet, and related 3D scenes.Reading about it is also nice, but if you would like to give it a try, please feel free to do so. You can access 5 items per week totally free, without a subscription and the app is freely downloadable from the Google Play Store.
Last, but not least, here is the winner of Academic's choice, European Business, and EdTech Awards, the mozaBook educational presentation software. After 2016 and 2017, mozaBook got shortlisted in the category of "International Digital Education Resource" again which is, of course, a huge accomplishment for the whole Mozaik team.Only those products can survive in this category which have a proven track record of success in the international education market and able to show evidence that the product has aided teaching and learning in a schools around the world.
Does it provide flexibility to the teacher?
Is it distinctive and innovative?
Does it enable effective learning?
mozaBook certainly does. Let us express how grateful and proud we are that our software is acknowledged as something special and receives recognition not only by our amazing teachers and students, but also from our peers in the education community.The exhibition season just kicked off in mid-October with the Frankfurt Book Fair, but is already in full swing for our crew (Frankfurter Buchmesse, Biblioteka Bratislava, SIMO Madrid). In January, we are returning to exhibit at the largest digital education event in the world, the Bett Show London.
Visit us at Stand F262 to see mozaBook, LabCamera, and Mozaik3D app in action and have a chat about how we can make education better!


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Repealing the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate, as the Republican tax plan being finalized now will likely do, would save the government an estimated $318 billion over 10 years, according to Congress's Joint Committee on Taxation. In reality, the savings are likely to be far smaller — but even so, repeal is a small step toward a freer health care market. That is worth pursuing.
The purpose of the mandate is to give relatively healthy people an incentive to buy insurance on the individual market. The ACA requires insurance companies to cover everyone regardless of whether they have pre-existing health conditions and charge everyone the same premium regardless of health risks. It also limits how much premiums can increase with age.
To cover these costs, insurance companies raised premiums substantially for those who are young and reasonably healthy. As a result, many from this group believe they are better off not buying insurance. The individual mandate discourages them from remaining uninsured by imposing a penalty for not buying coverage.
Without the individual mandate, more healthy people would choose to be uninsured, which would lead to an increase in premiums for those who continue to buy insurance on the individual market. This, in turn, would encourage even more people to become uninsured. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if the mandate is repealed, the number of uninsured would increase by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million by 2027.
An analyst at Standard and Poor's estimates that the actual reduction in the number of insured would be much lower, at only 3 million to 5 million, and would save the government a total of $60 billion to $80 billion over 10 years. If this estimate is accurate, repealing the mandate won't do much to offset lost revenue from tax cuts.
Several million more people without health insurance is nothing to shrug off, but repealing the individual mandate could force us to correct other problematic parts of the ACA. The ACA has raised costs and limited choices in the individual health insurance market. It has also increased federal government spending on health care. It has lowered health insurance premiums net of subsidies for a relatively small percentage of the population — those with relatively costly pre-existing health conditions who are not covered by employer-sponsored insurance — while raising them for almost everyone else who buys insurance in the individual or small group market.
Eliminating the individual mandate might contribute to destabilizing the individual health insurance market in some states. The CBO says that the overall market would remain stable, but premiums would increase by around 10 percent per year.
If the market does become unstable or premiums rise more rapidly, perhaps pressure on Congress would increase to reform other parts of the ACA, such as how much insurance companies are permitted to vary premiums based on differences in health risks.
One step in the right direction would be eliminating the requirement that insurance companies charge older people no more than three times what young adults pay for coverage. This rule increases premiums for younger adults by about one-third.
Two other changes could do more to encourage the healthy uninsured to buy insurance than the individual mandate does. First, eliminate the "essential health benefits" that the ACA requires all health plans to provide. These increase premiums by 3 to 17 percent.
Second, gradually remove the required community rating that prohibits insurance companies from charging higher premiums to people with pre-existing health conditions. This rule forces those in good health to pay more to subsidize the premiums of those in poor health. At the same time, tying premium subsidies more to health risks and less to income could help keep insurance affordable for people in poor health and still protect vulnerable populations.
The state of Alaska has taken a step in this direction by instituting a supplemental reinsurance program to help cover the individual market's largest claims. Separating out those with the costliest medical conditions resulted in the insurance provider filing an average rate decrease of 22 percent for 2018.
The individual mandate has not been very effective. Allowing insurance companies to offer lower premiums to those in good health would do far more to reduce the number of uninsured Americans. Restoring people's freedom to decide whether or not to buy health insurance, and giving them a chance to do so at market determined prices — rather than forcing a small subset of the young and healthy to cross subsidize those with serious health problems — is a worthy goal for its own sake.
As part of a transition to a better system that could include arrangements like health status insurance, we can and should find a better way to pay for subsidies for those with costly pre-existing health conditions.
Tracy C. Miller is a senior policy research editor with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University


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Two words: Larry Page. In his short tenure as CEO, the reclusive, socially awkward cofounder has proven to be bold, unpredictable, unapologetic, and–so far–brilliant. Page reorganized Google's executive team, empowering rising stars such as YouTube's Salar Kamangar and Android's Andy Rubin. He killed 28 underperforming projects. Google+, the search company's answer to Facebook, garnered tens of millions of users in a few months' time. Then, he paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility, giving Google access to a trove of patents and raising the possibility of more direct competition with Apple. "There are basically no companies that have good slow decisions," Page told customers at Google's Zeitgeist conference in September. "There are only companies that have good fast decisions."
Meanwhile, even in a tough economy, Google's traditional ad business continues to produce–it's averaging about 30% growth this year, even while its bets on the future, such as YouTube, look increasingly promising.
12,500,000,000 Google
12.5 billion of 19.5 billion total searches in the U.S. in
August 2011, according to comScore. Google's dominant position in search is the platform that lets it aggressively target
mobile, social, local, and other new frontiers.


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The folks of Camcorder Info have gotten their hands onto Panasonic's HDC-SDT750 – one of the first 3D camcorders designed with consumers in mind – and reviewed it. Here's what they concluded:
In our time checking out the HDC-SDT750, it was clear that the camcorder was capable of capturing excellent 3D images. The recording process for capturing these images wasn't easy, however, and the camcorder definitely has a much higher learning curve than most consumer models we've seen before. The lack of manual controls and settings in 3D mode may upset some users, but it does give you the chance to focus on the basics of strong 3D recording-proper calibration, lots of light, and a focal range of roughly 1.2 – 4m. If you fail to record with these directives, your 3D footage will probably be disappointing.
As a 2D camcorder, we are confident in the HDC-SDT750's capabilities, as it is essentially the same model as the Panasonic HDC-TM700, which has been #1 on our ratings page ever since we reviewed it early this year. In addition to the 3D recording capability, Panasonic also improved the noise reduction on the HDC-SDT750 and added a new image stabilisation system called Hybrid OIS. We'll have to wait until we get the SDT750 into our labs before we can say if either of these new features make much of a difference, but, according to Panasonic, the new camcorder should have 40% less noise in low light situations than previous models.
You can read the full in-depth review over at Camcorder Info. [Camcorder Info]


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Armored Personnel Carrier
Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) are armored fighting vehicles designed to transport infantry into battle, protecting them from enemy fire and shrapnel. Modern APCs can have either tracks or wheels with tires. Most APCs have some variety of armament, ranging from machine guns to cannons to missile launchers (although heavier armament typically reduces transport capacity).
The concept of the Armored Personnel Carrier was experimented with during the Great War with the British Mark IX tank. During the Second World War, several types of tracked and half-tracked APCs were built, most of which were open-topped. Many of these were large, glorified trucks rather then dedicated infantry transports. Specialized APCs came into their own during the Cold War, as more protection for carried troops was emphasized. Two of the best examples are the US M-113 Infantry Fighting Vehicle and the Soviet BMP-1.
Real World APC's
- Mark IX tank (United Kingdom)
- Universal Carrier (United Kingdom)
- SdKfz 250s (Nazi Germany)
- Landing Vehicle Tracked (LVT) (United States)
- M3 halftrack (United States)
- M113 Armored Personnel Carrier (United States)
- M3 Bradley Cavalry Fighting Vehicle (United States)
- Stryker (United States)
- LVTP7/AAVP7A1 amphibious armored carrier (United States)
- BMP-1 (Soviet Union)
- BMP-2 (Soviet Union)
Armored Personnel Carriers in science fiction
- Imperial Rhino, Chimaera, and Land Raider transports (Warhammer 40,000)
- Tau Devilfish (Warhammer 40,000)
- AT-AT (Star Wars)
- Colonial Marine APC (Aliens)


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I'm going to make a comment here that may shock a lot of people. I hate to say it, but it may shock a lot of people who are very good at using statistics.
Statistical models are not answers – they are models.
Models are built in replica of a system. They may look similar, but they are not perfect and the resemblance can always be improved.
Now that I have got that shock out of the way, here is my motivation. Rand recently posted on a new correlation value for Latent Dirchlet Allocation (LDA) to Google ranking. The first value was 0.32, then recognition of a mistake in the calculations lead to a figure of 0.17. Now, it seems, the number should be around 0.06 - 0.1. Meanwhile, other datasets have given others different results. As SEOs we are after a clear number - we want the answer "LDA correlates to Google's rankings with a score of 0.XX". Unfortunately, we are unlikely to ever get that answer
A Binary View on Probability
Rand and Danny Sullivan's debate in the comments on Rand's original post about LDA was caused by the fact that that people, especially those for whom mathematics is not their adopted language, have pretty binary views on the subject: they either trust statisticians implicitly or are highly cynical of the results they produce. Both responses are due to a lack of understanding and a fundamental position on the relevance of things that we do not understand. When we are uncertain about something, we like to probe it to find out whether it is good or bad. Think of all the questions you asked last time you bought an oven, or a car. You probed each one to find out whether it was suitable for the task it claimed to perform and efficient in performing that task. The problem is, with physical objects like these we can see examples, road tests and samples; with something abstract like statistical methodology we have to rely on those who do understand it – and they were the people who we didn't trust in the first place.
It's easy enough to find out whether a car does what it's supposed to, but statistics can be a little more difficult. Image credit, Cartoon Stock
String and Sealing Wax
What a lot of people forget is that these models are not perfect and they weren't built to be perfect. In the same way that the models you might have built of a Spitfire or Mustang when you were young could not fly, they are just representations of the system and the best you could make at the time. You might then have improved them – add an engine and some RF wizardry and you can make them fly. But you still can't fit in them – they're just models. To be perfect models of a plane, they would have to be a plane.
Another good example is gravity. Isaac Newton published his laws of gravity which said that all objects with mass attract each other in a certain way. This model worked then and it works now – we send satellites into orbit and predict the motions of galaxies with it. But it had problems: it could not explain the observed changes in Mercury's orbit and it did not say what gravity actually was, only what it did. Albert Einstein refined the model, with his famous General Theory of Relativity. This told us what gravity is and its relationship with mass – gravity tells space-time to bend, mass says by how much – and it solved the problem of Mercury's orbit. It even predicted that gravity causes light to bend. It was a much better model, one that we can use to look out far beyond the solar system. But it's still not perfect – the satellite Pioneer 10 is nowhere near where it should be and General Relativity alone gets the age of the universe completely wrong. It's a flawed model. My opinion, I wrote my masters dissertation on this, is that this is because Einstein's model of space-time is wrong. He said it's flat, or slightly curved, while the model I think improves on it says that it is actually far from flat. This model improves on relativity in many ways and even provides links with another great model, quantum mechanics. It even fulfils Einstein's dream of describing everything in the universe through geometry. But it's still not perfect or, I hasten to ad, properly verified.
The point here is that the real world is damned complex. Physicists and statisticians, like people who make model aeroplanes, represent it to the best of their abilities and those abilities are constantly evolving. Like the LDA model, where Rand and Ben started with the assumption that all keywords have the same ranking factors factors affecting their SERPs in the same way. This model is simplified, it will not be a complete model of reality, just like Newton's model of gravity, but we can still use it in our everyday lives. If we want to be more precise, we must take into account how competitive a term is - refining our model. This is evolution in action.
From Ape to Homo Sapiens
In his comments to Rand's original post on LDA, Danny Sullivan mentions people in the late '90s using "theme pyramids" and their association with LDA. He's completely right in how he's introduced them, but not right to dismiss LDA because of the association of these to techniques. Theme pyramids are the equivalent of Aristotle or Newton – a sensible starting place – while LDA is crinkled space-time – a very good idea but something we're pretty sceptical of because it's unproven. We can even chart how the model of content relevance has evolved over the years:
- Theme pyramids
- Information Frequency vs Inverse Document Frequency (IF vs IDF)
- Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI)
- Probabilistic LSI (pLSI)
- Latent Direchlet Allocation (LDA)
Each model improves on the last, but is not perfect. Even Rand, replying to Danny's commented that started their debate on the original LDA post, says "We think it's interesting, given the relatively high correlation (compared to link metrics) to try it out, but we haven't suggested conclusive results." In his latest post, Rand says, "more polished results may still be several months away" and Ben in his update was scathing of his own work, saying "I think 0.17 really might not be the last word.... Just treat all of this as suspect until we know more."
Aristotle's periodic tabel. Just because it was wrong doesn't mean all periodic tables are wrong. As a starting place it served us well. Image credit, University of Virginia
A Conclusion - Perhaps
The point here is that in their recent debate, both Rand and Danny are right and both are wrong. The SEOmoz team seem, to my mind at least, to have made a pretty convincing case for LDA. The methodology used in the original SEOmoz study was the same as in the Bing vs Google study and seems sound as a starting point, but:
- Only in the case of the ranks between 1 and 10
- Only if Wikipedia is taken as the de facto corpus of all English words and their proper, contextual usage
- Only if we look at keywords, not key phrases
- Only if all phrases are equally competitive.
Beyond these restrictions, who knows?
The problem is that more data is needed and it needs to be analysed in a less naive way. Ideally, we should look at sites ranking 1 to 100. Even Rand said in the Google vs Bing post that "Ben [Hendrickson] & I both feel that... we should gather the first 3-5 pages of results, not just the 1st page." The problem with this is that while there will be 10 times the number of results to review, the work will be 100 times greater. It would also make more sense to train the algo on a thesaurus and Wikipedia combined, and possibly even the whole Oxford University Press range of specialist dictionaries. But again all this would take a huge amount of resources, as would expanding the model to included phrases.
We should also define exactly what we mean, numerically, by a "competitive" keyword and see how this affects our end results. We need to figure out stress-tests for the model, how local and universal search are incorporated, and many other factors. Until we do this, we will only have a simplistic model - but it could require the SEO equivalent of Einstein to work out
So, the great debate: is LDA a pile of codswallop or a pile of gold? Neither – it's something in between, as is any statistical model. How much gold and how much fish is in the pile we can only learn from collecting more data and putting in more resource. It is also not the be-all and end-all, it is simply the best that we have. There will be a better model devised, with fewer assumptions and restrictions, and until then LDA is probably the most accurate. But then this is true of any new scientific or mathematical model.
My own view, which I commented on Rand's first post with, is that the next stage of evolution needs to be introducing the Zipf-Mandelbrot law, which models language usage much more accurately than simple Bayesian statistics and allows phrases as well as words to be analysed. We also need to take a website, or category of a website, and apply LDA to a page as a document within a corpus. Unfortunately, both of these will require a leap beyond my mathematical abilities and a lot of processing power.


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The season's nine greatest new adventures.
Zip line
Maui, Hawaii
At Piiholo Ranch, a working horse and cattle ranch on Maui, Hawaii's longest zip line takes you screaming over guava trees and gulches filled with native ferns. Part of a five-line tour, Line 5, which measures more than a half mile, even takes in a glimpse of the island's north shore. 808/572-1717, $190. — Carolina A. Miranda
Rain forest sledding
Ocho Rios, Jamaica
To train for the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary, the famed Jamaican bobsled team resorted to careering down the island's Blue Mountains in a modified pushcart. To relive the team's experience, head to Mystic Mountain, an eco-themed park on the country's north coast. Here, thrill seekers hop into a bobsled on rails that tears through tropical forest and down a 3,200-foot track that, at one point, drops 400 feet at almost 30 mph. 876/974-3990, $62. — Sara Morrow
Crocodile hunting
Darwin, Australia
Meet Choppa, an 18-foot croc who can shred a bull shark with his jaws. At Crocosaurus Cove aquarium, visitors spend 15 heart-pounding minutes in his tank, the Cage of Death. A sturdy acrylic panel separates you from the 1,700-pound reptile—but that doesn't make the experience any less terrifying. 011-61/8-8981-7522, admission $18.50, Cage of Death $79, reservations required. —J D Rinne
Rock and Roll Dreams
London, U.K.
Crackling amps, glaring lights, the roar of the crowd: Most of us will never know the euphoria of strutting around stage like a superstar. But at London's British Music Experience, you can come close. The 20,000-square-foot interactive exhibit, open since March, has a room full of instruments where you can record your own hits and a studio where footage of you gets spliced into a music video. The grand finale: a room decked out in wall-size video screens, showing excerpts of concerts by the likes of Bowie and the Rolling Stones. 011-44/844-847-2477, adults $21, kids under 16 $17. — Alison Rohrs
Tiger Tug-of-war
Tampa, Fla.
Twice a day, up to six visitors to Jungala, a four-acre animal attraction at Busch Gardens in Tampa, get to play tug-of-war with one of the park's 11 Bengal tigers (with the 300-pound beast safely behind a double-mesh fence). Not surprisingly, the tigers have maintained a flawless record—the feistiest feline, a male named Bhutan, usually wins in about a minute. 888/800-5447, adults $70, kids 3 to 9 $60. — Amy Chen
Defy Gravity
Nashville, Tenn.
Channel your inner Neil Armstrong at the Sudekum Planetarium in Nashville, where the new Space Chase wing has two activities that simulate the weightless feeling of space. Guests buckle into a harness and, in minutes, are hurtling above the surface of the moon or alongside a spacecraft. 615/862-5160, adults $11, kids under 12 $9. — Beth Collins
On the rails of the newest adrenaline-pumping rides.
The Diamondback
Mason, Ohio
Named for a deadly viper, this beast opened in April at Kings Island, near Cincinnati. It has 10 vertical drops spread out over 10 acres, but the real thrill is the open-air vehicle itself, with individual stadium-style seats and no sides. 800/288-0808, adults $32. — Danielle Lipp
Ring Racer
One of pro racing's toughest tracks, the Nürburgring will also, come July, feature the world's fastest coaster—a monster that can hit 135 mph in under three seconds (and that kicks off near the real track's finish line). 011-49/2691-3020, adults $26. — Mike Iveson
Terminator Salvation
Valencia, Calif.
Debuting along with the latest Terminator movie in May, the new ride at Six Flags Magic Mountain weds the creaky terror of an old wooden coaster with high-tech effects. Expect five gut-scrambling plunges and speeds of up to 55 mph. 661/255-4100, adults $60. — DL


text: The team here at John Howerton Honda invites drivers in the White Sulphur Springs and Oceana, WV areas to take advantage of our vehicle appraisal services today! Thanks to our online form, you can value your trade-in without ever stepping foot in our Beckley, WV Honda dealership! Our appraisals come with no obligation, so feel free to send in a request today; while we compose a fair value, we encourage you to check out all the new Honda models you can upgrade to! We'll be in touch to discuss all your options shortly.


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- The LifeStyle Full-Size Ironing Centre is THE affordable, high-quality Total Ironing Solution that fits in tight spaces.
- Extremely stable, Full-size, ventilated, STEEL mesh ironing surface. Does not require any underside support or struts like other outdated ironing centres!
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SANTA CLARA — Intel on Tuesday turned in earnings for the first quarter that slightly beat analysts' expectations and for a time sent its stock in late trading to its highest level in more than four years.
The Santa Clara giant said it made a profit of $1.9 billion on sales of about $12.8 billion. Compared to the same period a year ago, its profit was down 5 percent but its sales rose 1 percent. That worked out to earnings of 38 cents per share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters generally had expected earnings of 37 cents per share on sales of $12.8 billion.
"2014 is off to a solid start," Intel CEO Brian Krzanich said in a conference call with analysts, noting that the company shipped five million chips for tablets and gained ground in the smartphone market, among other achievements. "These milestones give me confidence."
Mark Hung, an analyst with research firm Gartner, also saw positive signs in the earnings release.
Noting that the first quarter of the year tends to be Intel's slowest for sales, he said the company has "made a lot of good progress" advancing its chip designs and manufacturing operations. But he added that "it's still a bit of a show-me story" whether Intel can significantly boost its sales by getting its chips into mobile devices so it doesn't have to rely so heavily on the personal computer market.
After closing with an 0.8 percent gain at $26.77, Intel stock moved higher in late trading following the announcement, briefly topping the company's 52-week high of $27.12.
As the world's biggest chipmaker in terms of revenues and one of Silicon Valley's most legendary corporations, Intel's earnings reports are widely watched as a barometer of the overall tech industry's health. Yet after peaking at $14.2 billion in the third quarter of 2011, its quarterly sales consistently have fallen below that figure.
While the sluggish world economy is partly responsible for Intel's flattened sales, the company has been particularly hurt by dwindling consumer purchases of personal computers, which mostly run on Intel's microprocessors.
"Worldwide PC shipments have now declined for eight consecutive quarters," research firm International Data Corporation reported last week. Those sales recently got a bit of a boost from Microsoft's decision to stop providing security and other updates for its widely used Windows XP software, prompting many businesses and people to buy new computers. Nonetheless, IDC said it sees "not much opportunity for growth" in the PC business.
Because of that, Intel has been trying hard to get its chips into other devices, with mixed results. It's begun to make some headway in the smartphone and tablet markets, for example. Nonetheless, those segments remain dominated by firms using an alternative chip design licensed from British company ARM Holdings.
As a result, analysts with Raymond James & Associates groused in a recent report on Intel "that mobile and tablet traction has been largely disappointing for multiple years" and predicted the company's shares "will head lower."
Bernstein Research analysts also expressed concern about Intel's prospects over the next few quarters in a separate note to their clients, warning that "the stock becomes very hard to own if 2014 plays out similarly to last year."
But Intel has high hopes for its chips powering the so-called Internet of Things, which includes a huge array of household, retail, industrial, automotive and other gadgets that are being computerized and linked together. That revenue, which it reported for the first time Monday, totaled $485 million in the first quarter — up 32 percent from a year ago. The company also is exploring the idea of using its advanced manufacturing plants to build chips for other companies, including its competitors.
That willingness to experiment with new sources of money drew a positive review recently from analysts with Technology Business Research, who said it will help boost Intel's "image as an IT innovator, rather than simply a silicon supplier."
Contact Steve Johnson at firstname.lastname@example.com or 408-920-5043. Follow him at Twitter.com/steveatmercnews


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Spicy Oven-Roasted Chickpeas
Canned chickpeas are coated with chili powder, cumin, and cayenne and baked until crispy for a simple, quick, healthy snack.
Crunchy and spicy are the two things I love most in food. These baked chickpeas are both, plus a tasty and healthy snack. Just toss them with a little olive oil and some spices, then roast in the oven until crunchy.... Read More
View Recipe


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Orthodox Jews cook Thanksgiving-like meals every shabbos and that makes us the experts when it comes to cooking large meals for a crowd. All kidding aside, Thanksgiving is a time to count our blessing, which gives us an opportunity to say thank you to all our wonderful members for providing us with wonderful recipes and cooking ideas. Keep up the great work!
Turkey Tips with Levana Kirschenbaum
Healthy Thanksgiving with Norene Gilletz
Turkey Talk with the KosherEye
Turkey Pot Pie - great leftover meal
Chicken or Turkey Grilled Cutlets
Streuseled Sweet Tater Casserole - Gluten Free
Couscous with Roasted Vegetables
Here is a recipe for the perfect turkey from Levana Kirschenbaum.
Thank you for including KosherEye as an informational source for your Thanksgiving feature. You picked an interesting article from our Kosher Turkey Talk feature which also included many turkey facts, recipes, tips, etc. We agree with you, Thanksgiving is a time to count our blessings and say Thank You!


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luật chơi slot machine Cá cược bóng đá miễn phí
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Preciosa Almond Chandelier Crystals 2593 - One Pin Hole
These beautiful almond shaped pendants from Preciosa, also known as crystal teardrops or crystal chandelier trimmings, are perfectly cut and polished to bring a high quality shine to your design. Manufactured with one pin hole at the top of the crystal, these drops can be used to create stunning crystal trimmings on soft furnishings or individual drop pendants as a focal point to your chandelier.
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NOPD: Person of interest in deadly triple shooting questioned, released
New Orleans police said the person of interest who was located and questioned in connection with a Wednesday night deadly triple shooting was released Thursday afternoon from NOPD Headquarters.
Shawn Peterson arrived at NOPD Headquarters Thursday morning and was speaking to detectives about the incident. Thursday afternoon, he walked out the front door without being charged with a crime.
Sources told WDSU that Peterson is still considered a person of interest in the shooting deaths of a 39-year-old NOPD dispatcher, her daughter and son.
All three victims were gunned down in the 4400 block of Jeanne Marie Place around 11 p.m. Wednesday, according to police.
Family members told WDSU that the victims, in order of age, are Christine George, Trisa George and Leonard George. Police have not officially listed the names of the victims.
Family members told WDSU that another child was inside the house at the time of the shooting but was not harmed.
Police say they received a call of several people shot, and when they arrived they found all three victims shot to death inside a garage.
Christine George had been employed with NOPD since 2009, according to family.
NOPD dispatcher killed in triple shooting
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H.R. Giger Art at the NY Empire State Tattoo Expo
NY Empire State Tattoo Expo kicks off tomorrow, and I'm excited to take my baby bump over there to have fun at the show (not working! yeah!). It'll also be my husband's first tattoo convention — he's already studied "How Not To Get a Tattoo at a Convention" – and so I'm lining up a list of highlights, kind of like a convention plan of attack.
The first thing on my attack list is to view the art of one of tattooing's greatest artistic influences: H.R. Giger. While his legacy in pop culture is his acclaim for designing the Alien creature,
for the tattoo community, he inspired a whole stylistic genre: biomechanical tattoo design — art that conveys man and machine
fused in surrealist dreamscapes.
The H.R. Giger works on view will be Harkonnen Chair, the Nubian Queen, and the Birthmachine Baby sculptures.
On the last day of the show, Sunday, July 17th, at 5pm, there will be a contest for the best H.R. Giger Inspired Tattoo (like the one shown below). The prizes are stellar: 1st Place Winner will receive the Tattoo Biomechanoid, a Limited Edition Giger sculpture; and the 2nd Place Winner will receive the Tattoo Biomechanoid Ring, also designed by Giger.
Once we've checked Giger off our convention To Do list, we'll be checking out the other tattoo competitions, viewing portfolios of the top artists in attendance, and buying lots of cool stuff (including tattoo baby clothes!). For tattoo artists, the seminars are a must-see, with the very best in the industry sharing their secrets.
I'll be posting photos from the show on my Instagram and later on the blog. Hope to see you there!
H.R. Giger inspired tattoo by Paul Booth.
via Needles and Sins Tattoo Blog http://ift.tt/PLNmTv
July 14, 2016 at 04:48AM


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In July 2010 I published a ground-breaking discovery in the journal Toxicology. My paper convincingly demonstrated that the risk of chronic exposure of arthropods (including bees) to a relatively new class of pesticides, called neonicotinoids, which are mainly produced by Bayer CropScience, had been severely underestimated. There is general consensus now about this conclusion. The discovery explained bee decline. The neonicotinoids are an important product of Bayer CropScience, generating hundreds of millions each year.
In my time as head of toxicology at a Swiss CRO (1985-1992) I developed friendly contacts with Bayer CropScience employees. My expertise as a toxicologist has never been in doubt in the chemical industry. I was generally regarded as one of the best in my field. That is why I was convinced my colleagues at Bayer CropScience would contact me to initiate a constructive dialogue on the subject, aiming to develop new risk analysis guidelines for approval by the regulators. The likelihood was that a number of products would have to be withdrawn from the market. But that is not uncommon in the agrochemical industry. Companies are constantly developing new products, building on existing know-how and experience with the first product of a new substance class.
Unfortunately, that did not happen. Instead, in October 2010, I received a note from the Editor-in-Chief of the journal Toxicology, informing me about a Letter to the Editor by two employees of Bayer CropScience, with a request to respond. It was a very opportunistic attempt to disprove my discovery. The Bayer employees denied that there was an underestimation of the risk of chronic exposure of arthropods. It was a blatant attempt to discredit my reputation as a toxicologist. My answer destroyed the Bayer CropScience epistle, at least that is how I see it. That was the start of a nasty confrontation that is going to harm both parties.
I was extremely concerned about the negative impact of these substances on biodiversity. Bayer CropScience appeared to prefer confrontation, and I remained convinced that my concerns were well founded. A major disaster loomed. I found myself compelled to publish a book to warn the general public about an impending environmental catastrophe. I succeeded. My book "Disaster in the Making" was a great succes and is read all over the world. I am now walking in the footsteps of the famous biologist and writer Rachel Carson, author of Silent Spring (1962). However, as the result of this succes, the confrontation with Bayer CropScience intensified.
Bayer CropScience has never attempted to initiate a constructive dialogue on the subject. I have never been asked to participate in further research. After a while, everyone in the agrochemical industry knew that renowned toxicologist Henk Tennekes was at odds with one of the largest producers of pesticides. Several colleagues assured me that a potential client in the agrochemical industry is unlikely to outsource work to me under such circumstances. So, the absence of a constructive dialogue during the last three years is now affecting my livelihood.
My discovery was recognized and endorsed at the European level (Annex), and the use of neonicotinoids in agriculture and elsewhere has become highly controversial. The manufacturers are doing everything they can to prevent prohibition. Whether they will succeed is highly uncertain. The reputation of Bayer CropScience (and in fact the entire agro-chemical sector) was severely damaged by the issue and that many consumers are changing to organic food.
I am not going to change my position regarding the neonicotinoids, come what may. These substances destroy biodiversity. Their continued use will lead to an environmental disaster of unprecedented proportions. Further research is urgently needed to identify substances with similar properties. These projects are ready to go and would be performed by a number of highly experienced European scientists over a period of 2 years. However, we are in need of funds. If you are willing to provide financial support for this objective, may I kindly ask you to contact me at info (at) toxicology.nl or info (at) disasterinthemaking.com. Be assured that all correspondence will be regarded as strictly confidential.
Yours sincerely
Dr. H. A. (Henk) Tennekes
Consultant in Toxicology
Experimental Toxicology Services (ETS) Nederland BV
Frankensteeg 4
7201KN Zutphen, The Netherlands


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In the mood for everlasting love as Valentine's Day approaches? Here's a look at public marriage proposals over the past year that are sure to get the waterworks (of joy) going.
Epic Proposal from 26 Countries, 4 Years in the Making
"I'm going to marry this girl eventually," is what Jack Hyer says he wrote in his travel journal shortly after his first date with his girlfriend Becca. Over the next four years of the relationship, he filmed himself singing 1980s hit "I'm Gonna Be" as he traveled the world, with clips from places as far as China, Tanzania and Thailand. He used the reel to propose to her, also on camera in a restaurant, and posted the entire feat on YouTube.
U.S. & World
Man Chases Love with 5K Proposal
This finish line was extra sweet for one runner who finished the Phillies Charities 5K, when her boyfriend pulled off what the sponsoring baseball team says was the first-ever proposal at the end of the event.
NASA Love
Talk about a lift off! This man taped himself proposing in front of Pad39 A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, which he notes on YouTube was "where we sent Apollo to the moon and Space Shuttles launched." You can't hear the words, but he says he wooed his wife-to-be with,"Some of mankind's greatest journeys started right here - I want to start my next journey with you -- will you marry me?"
On Bended Knee on "Ellen"
Is there any better place to propose than in front of a studio audience with Ellen on hand? There must be dancing after a life changing event like this.
Sometimes You Have to Say Yes on the Subway
Subway trains can be gross, slow and crowded, but the chance to witness a proposal on board the train is sure to put your commute (and day) on the right track. Robert Waters told Gothamist that he planned to propose to girlfriend Carley Frese on the train, complete with a hired gospel choir, because "wanted to make it a special place for her the way that it is for me."
M Train from Gothamist on Vimeo.
A Musical Flash Mob
The message was clear: "Who cares baby, I think I want to marry you." The groom-to-be surprised his future bride with a dancing flash mob proposal at Tivoli Village in Las Vegas, according to the videographer who captured the special moment.
After surviving the 2012 theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado, Bonnie Kate was proposed to by her filmmaker boyfriend inside a movie theater. He told Today.com that he decided to stage the elaborate proposal, complete with a video documenting the ups and downs of their relationship, because he "had to in some way shine light on the darkness."
Rose Bowl Proposal Spectacular
This proposal took place at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, where the couple met years before. But that was far from the only special detail of the event. Her boyfriend surprised his wife-to-be with a scavenger hunt that included pampering, lunch with friends, shopping spree and a meeting of the future in-laws before popping the question, according to the film company that captured the event.
Surprise Scavenger Hunt Engagement
Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel helped stage a proposal by selecting a "random" audience member to go on a scavenger hunt. The woman comes back with Elmo, but this was no joke. The man under the mask was her future husband.


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An energy company that wanted to build a terminal in Sparrows Point to import liquefied natural gas and an 88-mile pipeline into Pennsylvania has scrapped those plans after a seven-year fight over safety and environmental concerns.
Arlington, Va.-based AES Corp. told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in a brief motion that it "has decided to no longer pursue" the project. The company cited no reasons and did not respond to a phone call and email seeking comment Monday.
The terminal and pipeline drew stiff opposition from residents, local politicians, state leaders and members of Congress. Though AES won approval from the Federal Energy Commission to proceed, it failed to get a needed state certification to dredge the waters around the former Bethlehem Steel shipyard to make way for big tankers.
AES appealed the decision in federal court but lost that battle four years ago. The project also faced a court challenge from opponents, who filed suit to have the Federal Energy Commission's approval overturned.
"We figured they must be dormant and just waiting for the right time to strike back, but what you're telling me, that's the best news I've heard," said Guido Guarnaccia Sr., an Edgemere resident and founding member of the LNG Opposition Team. "Good riddance."
AES is an electricity powerhouse with about $18 billion in annual revenue. It owns power plants, distribution and utilities in 23 countries and employs about 25,000 people, according to its website.
On top of all the legal wrangling over the Sparrows Point terminal, the market for natural gas has changed dramatically since the proposed project was announced in January 2006, making the import business less attractive. The boom in domestic shale gas production — prompted by hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking" — helped drive prices down from about $7 per million British thermal units at the beginning of 2006 to about $3.50 today.
The nation's net imports of natural gas dropped 23 percent last year from the year before, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Much of what the country does import comes from Canada via pipeline rather than on tankers headed to terminals, the agency said.
Russell S. Donnelly, an Edgemere resident who leads the LNG Opposition Team, figures these market forces played a role in AES's decision. But the water-quality certification was the big hurdle, he said.
He's sure the terminal would have been built years ago if residents hadn't objected.
"We held their feet to the fire," he said. "We were prepared to hang on and fight if it took the next hundred years."
Residents worried about the potential for explosions and raised concerns that the terminal and incoming tankers could be terrorist targets. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. opposed the project as governor, and Gov. Martin O'Malley called it "a threat to our homeland security."
Plans to dredge near the terminal as part of that project also met with objections. The waters and sediment near Sparrows Point are contaminated with decades of toxic chemicals from steelmaking there.