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ISSN : 2288-4645(Online)
DOI : https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2019.vol6.no2.257
Long-run and Short-run Causality from Exchange Rates to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index
JEL Classification: G15, F31, E44, F37, G01.
1. Introduction
Much of the existing research regarding exchange rates in Asia has focused on their volatility and relationship with trade and prices. More specifically, there are asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on domestic corporate goods prices when the exchange rate is more volatile. In Japan, Murase (2013) reports that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the aggregated corporate goods price index is higher than the change of the corporate goods price index and more gradually adjusted in a higher exchange rate volatility regime. Ghosh and Rajan (2009) report that an exchange rate pass-through in Korea with respect to the U.S. dollar is higher than with respect to the Japanese yen. Nishimura and Hirayama (2013) report that Japan's exports to China are not affected by either the exchange rate volatility or the level of the exchange rate, but China's exports to Japan are negatively influenced during the reform period of the Chinese yuan exchange rate regime. In addition, Wang, Lin, and Yang (2012) have suggested that the real appreciation of Chinese yuan has no overall long-run impact on China's trade balance. Besides, Baak (2012) has argued that the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won is misaligned from its equilibrium value, which leads to drastic changes in Korea's trade pattern and trade partner weights. The theoretical line pursued in the aforementioned studies is that the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices can be correlated, especially when we consider recent large cross-border movements of funds and investments.
With the ongoing development of equity markets, two theories about the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices are the traditional approach and the portfolio approach. These approaches have long been discussed but not yet resulted in consensus. The traditional approach claims that depreciation of the domestic currency makes local firms more competitive, leading to an increase in their exports and consequently higher stock prices. This implies a positive correlation between exchange rates and stock prices. The traditional approach suggests that the fluctuation of exchange rates lead to the changes in stock prices. On the contrary, the portfolio approach argues that an increase in stock prices induces investors to demand more domestic assets and thereby causes an appreciation in the domestic currency. Thus, changes in stock prices lead to fluctuation of exchange rates and they are negatively related.
Stock prices, generally interpreted as the present values of future cash flows of firms, react to exchange rate changes and form the link among future income, interest rates, current investment and consumption decisions (Zhao, 2010). In the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate is essentially determined by a country's current account balance or trade balance. As a result, the exchange rate fluctuation affects international competitiveness and trade balance to some extent. Consequently, it affects real income and stock prices, especially the stock price of export oriented enterprises. The flow-oriented model (Dornbusch & Fisher, 1980) claims a positive linkage between exchange rates and stock prices. Local currency depreciation would lead to greater competitiveness of domestic firms given that their exports will be cheaper in international trade. Higher exports will increase the domestic income and hence the firms' stock prices will go up since they are evaluated as the present value of the firms' future cash flows.
The stock-oriented model (Branson, Halttunen, & Masson, 1977) of exchange rates specifies the exchange rate as serving to equate the supply and demand for assets such as stocks and bonds. This model determines the exchange rate dynamics by giving the capital account a pivotal role. Since the values of financial assets are determined by the present values of their future cash flows, expectations of relative currency values play a considerable role in price movements of the financial assets. Therefore, stock price innovations may affect, or be affected by, exchange rate dynamics (Zhao, 2010). As a result, if the common factors influence the two variables, stock price innovations may be reciprocally associated with the exchange rate dynamics or be influenced by the exchange rate behavior.
The research goals of this study are to fill the gap in the literature and to provide new evidence on both the short-run and long-run causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in the Korean stock market. The purpose of this study is to test for long-run and short-run causality from four exchange rates, i.e. the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macro-economic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018.
2. Literature Review and Hypotheses
2.1. Long-run Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices
Previous studies have addressed different findings regarding the causal relations between stock prices and exchange rates in various countries. For example, Nieh and Lee (2001) found no long-run relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the Group-7 countries. Yau and Nieh (2006) suggested no clear long-run relation between the new Taiwan dollar and the Japanese yen exchange rates and the stock prices of Taiwan and Japan. Zhao (2010) did not find a stable long-run relationship between the Chinese yuan real effective exchange rates and stock prices. Ramasamy and Yeung (2002) indicated inconsistent results for bidirectional causality between stock prices and exchange rates for six Asian countries over the period of 1995 and 2001. Kutty (2010) found that stock prices Granger caused exchange rates in the short run but there was not a long-run significant relationship in Mexico between January 1989 and December 2006. Other studies from Griffin and Stulz (2001), Fernandez (2006), Fernandes (2009), Hartmann and Pierdzioch (2007), and Zhao (2010) suggest no relationship between exchange rates and stock prices.
On the other hand, the long-run relationship has been confirmed in some studies. For example, Lee and Zhao (2014) report that there exists negative long-run causality from foreign exchange rates to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 of the People's Republic of China. Yau and Nieh (2009) found a long-run and asymmetric causal relationship between the exchange rates of the new Taiwan dollar and the Japanese yen and their stock prices in Japan and Taiwan. Whether empirically or theoretically, the above studies have suggested a significant relationship between exchange rates and stock prices. However, the results have been mixed for the sign and causal direction between exchange rates and stock prices. Thus, the following hypothesis is advanced:
Hypothesis 1: Exchange rates lead stock price dynamics in the long-run in the Korean stock market.
2.2. Short-run Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices
Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005) employed cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests that resulted in positive short-run causality between stock prices and exchange rates in some Pacific Basin countries. Aloui (2007) indicated that movements of stock prices affect the exchange rate dynamics for the two periods pre- and post-Euro in the United States and Western European markets. Pan, Fok and Liu (2007) reported a causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices for East Asian countries. Yang and Doong (2004) suggested exchange rate changes directly impacted future changes of stock prices for the Group-7 countries from 1979 to 1999. Nandha and Hammoudeh (2007) argued that stock prices were affected by changes in the exchange rate for nine Asia-Pacific countries while Wu (2001) showed Singapore dollar exchange rates Granger caused stock prices. Further research emphasizing a positive relationship between exchange rates and stock prices can be found in Chiang and Yang (2003), Ratanapakorn and Sharma (2007), Kolari, Moorman, and Sorescu (2008), Aydemir and Demirhan (2009), Ning (2010), and Eichler (2011). Mun (2007) specified that higher exchange rate variability mostly increases local stock market volatility, but decreases volatility for the United States stock markets. Exchange rate exposure has negative and significant impact on emerging market stock returns in a study by Chue and Cook (2008) while the S&P 500 stock price is negatively related to the real exchange rates in Kim (2003)'s research. Lee and Zhao (2014) report that there exists negative short-run causality from foreign exchange rates i.e. the Chinese yuan/the Korean won and the Chinese yuan/the Japanese yen, to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 of the People's Republic of China. Thus far, the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates is still inconclusive. East Asian countries have strong economic relationships with each other within the intraregion as well as the United States and European countries (Ogawa & Yang, 2008). Therefore, further study is needed to elucidate the causality between stock prices and exchange rates. Hence:
Hypothesis 2: In the short-run, the stock price dynamics in the Korean stock market (KOSPI) are affected by the nominal exchange rates of the Korean won per the U.S. dollar (USD), the Korean won per the Euro (EUR), the Korean won per the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Korean won per the Chinese yuan (CNY).
2.3. The Impact of Global Financial Crises on Stock Market Returns
The linkage between exchange rates and stock prices vary across economies with respect to exchange rate regimes, the trade size, the degree of capital control and the size of equity market (Pan et al., 2007). Mercereau (2006) suggested that the financial structure of an equity market influenced its real exchange rate, as well as the volatility of this exchange rate, whereas Walid, Chaker, Masood, and Fry (2011) asserted that the stock price volatility responded asymmetrically to events in the foreign exchange market. Diamandis and Drakos (2011) found that there is a significant long-run relationship between the local stock market and the exchange rate market, but that the stability of the relationship is affected by financial and currency shocks such as the Mexican currency crisis in 1994 and the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009. In addition, the process of creating the Mercosur between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in Latin American countries led to the local currency devaluation. These exchange rate movements have substantial negative impact on the respective stock prices (Allegret & Sand-Zantman, 2009; Alvarez-Plata & Schrooten, 2004; Camarero, Flores, & Tamarit, 2006).
In spite of existing coupling-decoupling effect, some researchers find markets integrate immediately after financial crisis. For example, Kim, Lee and Park (2011) claimed that after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, the degree of both regional and global dependence have increased drastically. Latin America also experience financial crisis shortly after the end of Asian financial crisis. Frijns, Tourani-Rad, and Indriawan (2012) suggested that Latin American countries integrate largely after the dot-com bubble. Their results are line up with empirical results of Liu and Wan (2012)'s research, which shows there are neither linear nor nonlinear causality between Shanghai Composite Index and exchange rates before current financial crisis, but exchange rate can either linearly or nonlinearly impact Shanghai Composite Index after that financial crisis. Empirical evidence from these three research might imply that if there are negative or positive correlations between exchange rate and stock prices, the strength of these correlations may be enhanced after financial crises.
Due to geographic factors, the relation between stock prices and exchange rate is observed regionally within a specific period of time. According to Pan et al. (2007), during the period of Asian financial crisis, causality from exchange rates to stock prices is founded in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, except Malaysia; while no causality from stock prices to exchange rate has been observed in countries mentioned above. Nonetheless, Hatemi-J, and Roca (2005) reported that the two variables are significantly linked in the non-crisis period, but not at all during the 1997 Asian financial crisis period for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Choi and Park (2008) found no evidence that interest rate differentials caused spot exchange rates in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Furthermore, Japanese foreign direct investment declined with a depreciation of the Japanese yen against host country currencies in Asia but with little effect from the 1997 Asian financial crisis (Takagi & Shi, 2011). On the other hand, Liao, Chu, and You (2011) examined 30 Taiwan categorical stock indexes and 13 historic data of foreign exchange index, and found a significantly inverse correlation between them. Moreover, Liao et al. (2011) also suggested that the foreign exchange correlation rules should be examined and discussed into two categories: appreciation term and depreciation term. As a complement to the previous points, Fung and Liu (2009) discovered that a real depreciation of the New Taiwanese dollar led to an increase in exports, domestic sales, total sales and productivity during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Global financial shocks impacted exchange rate and stock prices simultaneously as well. Dooley and Hutchison (2009) evaluated the transmission effect of U.S. subprime crisis to emerging economies and found widely insulation and decoupling effect in emerging economies during early 2007 and mid 2008. But quickly after summer 2008, the linkages between exchange rate and stock prices re-appear dramatically. To be noticed, the timing of linkages re-emergence is uniform and remarkable within most of countries in which they observe. In addition, with much specification, Wen, Wei, and Huang (2012) found contagion effect between crude oil and U.S./Chinese stock market during most recent financial crisis. Hence, exchange rates and stock prices are correlated in a complicated manner (Kim, Yoon, & Kim, 2004; Tastan, 2006). Market interactions may destabilize stock markets, but may also play a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate market (Dieci & Westerhoff, 2010). In light of these findings, the following hypothesis is developed:
Hypothesis 3: The global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 have impacted the stock price dynamics in the Korean stock market.
3. Empirical Specification
Engle and Granger (1987) and Granger (1988) reported that if two or more variables are cointegrated, there always exists a corresponding error correction term in which the short-run dynamic of the variables in the system are influenced by the deviation from equilibrium. In this case, a vector error correction (VEC) model is formulated to reintroduce the information lost in the differencing process, thereby capturing long-run dynamics as well as short-run dynamics. The VEC model implies that changes in one variable are a function of the level of disequilibrium in the cointegrating relationship (captured by the error correction term), as well as changes in other explanatory variables. Thus, the VEC model is useful for capturing both the short-run and the long-run dynamics when the variables are cointegrated.
The following equation illustrates a multivariate vector autoregressive model with the error correction term. This equation will be used to test short-run and long-run Granger causation from exchange rates to the Korean stock market price.
Δ indicates the difference operator;
α is the deterministic component;
Ɵ, β and ζ denote the parameters to be estimated;
et follows stationary random errors with mean zero, that is, white noise;
j is the lag length;
t represents 1, 2, 3, …, n observation;
ECTt is the error correction term obtained from the cointegrating vectors deriving from the long-run cointegrating relationship via the Johansen maximum likelihood procedure.
FC represents an exogenous variable of the global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009.
M2 is the broad definition of money supply.
CPI refers to the inflation rate.
INT represents the interest rate.
The long-run causality is indicated by the significance of t-statistics of the lagged error correction term (i.e. by testing null hypothesis: ζ = 0). The asymptotic variance of the estimator is estimated so that the t-statistics have asymptotic standard normal distribution. Asymptotic t-statistics can be interpreted the same way as t-statistics. They are used to interpret the statistical significance of coefficients of the lagged error correction term.
4. Data and Methodology
This section describes the data and outlines the methodology used in the selection of indicators and the normalization of data. The sample is restricted to the period in which monthly data are available from January 1986 to June 2018 (390 observations). All of the monthly time series data below has been collected and retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea.
4.1. Endogenous Variables
Korea Stock Exchange. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (symbol: KOSPI) is used as a proxy of the Korean stock market prices. This major stock market index tracks the general performance of all common shares listed on the Korean Stock Exchange. The KOSPI index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Monthly average of this index is used in this study.
Foreign Exchange Rates. Based on the volume of international trade with South Korea, four major exchange rates are selected: the Korean won per the U.S. dollar (USD), the Korean won per the Euro (EUR), the Korean won per the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Korean won per the Chinese yuan (CNY). The time series data is a monthly adjusted average. In effect, USD, EUR, JPY and CNY are the logarithm of the nominal exchange rate of Korean won per U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, respectively.
Macroeconomic Variables. Money supply (M2), inflation, and short-term interest rates are included in the model to address the omitted variable bias. In the empirical model, M2 is the logarithm of changes in the broad definition of money supply. Inflation is the logarithm of the consumer price index (CPI), a proxy of inflation rates. Interest rates (INT) are the logarithm of the short-term interest rate i.e. Certificate of Deposit 90 days.
4.2. Exogenous Variable
Global Financial Crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009. The global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 may cause structural breaks in the trend of stock prices in the Korean stock market, see Figure 1.
Because the global financial crisis would introduce some changes in the implementation of monetary policy, for example, from money targeting to interest rate targeting, this would introduce substantial instability in the system. An exogenous variable is used to examine the impact of the global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 on the Korean stock market. An exogenous variable (i.e. a financial crisis) is assumed to have systematically affected changes in the endogenous variables in the model (Brahmasrene, Huang, & Sissoko, 2014). A dummy variable with a value of zero will cause the variable's coefficient to disappear, and a dummy with a value one will cause the coefficient to act as a supplemental intercept in the regression model. Hence, the global financial crisis variable equals one if the period falls on either between January 1997 and June 2000 or between August 2006 and December 2010, and zero otherwise.
4.3. Normalization and Transformation
The normalization of the data is necessary to transform the values to the same unit of measurement since KOSPI is presented as the base value of 100, while exchange rates are presented in the Korean won. Therefore, transformation into a natural log mitigates possible distortions of dynamic properties of the series. Log transformation is a preferred method since each resulting coefficient in the regression equation represents elasticity, which is the ratio of the incremental change of the logarithm of a function with respect to an incremental change of the logarithm of the argument.
Selected tests on time series data as prescribed in the references in each section below are necessary for statistical accuracy and to avoid spurious results. To ascertain the order of integration of the variables, this study applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller (Dickey & Fuller, 1981) unit root test and the Phillips–Perron (Phillips & Perron, 1988) test. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test assumes the errors to be independent and have constant variance while the Phillips–Perron test allows for fairly mild assumptions about the distribution of errors. The two unit root tests are carried to test the null hypothesis of the unit root in the level and the first difference of the variables. All test equations were tested by the method of least squares, including an intercept and no time trend in the model. In the unit root tests, an optimal lag in the tests is automatically selected based on Schwarz information criterion and the lag length in the tests is automatically selected based on the Newey-West estimator using the Bartlett Kernel function.
Table 1 reports the results of the two unit root tests. Table 1 indicates the null hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected in the level for KOSPI, USD, JPY, EUR and CNY. After first differencing, all null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected at the one percent significance level for these variables. The results in Table 1 unanimously confirm that all variables are integrated of order one or I(1).
Cheung and Ng (1998) reported that the Johansen approach is more efficient than the Engle-Granger single equation test method because the maximum likelihood procedure has large and finite sample properties. The Johansen's approach (1988) derives maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating vectors for an autoregressive process with independent errors. The Johansen cointegration test represents each variable as a function of all the lagged endogenous variables in the system. It uses two ratio tests, a trace test and a maximum eigenvalue test, to examine the number of cointegration relationships. Both tests could be used to determine the number of cointegrating vectors present, although they do not always indicate the same number of cointegrating vectors.
Table 2 reports the results of the Johansen cointegration test. The model is tested by the method of least squares. The regression model allows for a linear deterministic trend in data and includes the intercept but no trend in the vector autoregressive model. Trace test statistics indicate that at least four cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level while maximum eigenvalue test statistic indicates that at least one cointegrating equation at the 0.01 level. The results of the Johansen cointegration test confirm that there exists cointegration between stock prices and foreign exchange rates in the Korean stock market. In this case, an unrestricted vector autoregressive model would not be an effective option for testing the short-run and long-run dynamics.
5. Empirical Results
Statistical inference is sensitive to parameter instability, serial correlation in residuals and residual skewness. Table 3 reports the results of VEC estimates, model diagnostic tests and residual diagnostic tests. Skewness of the series is not significantly different from a normal distribution. Histogram normality Jarque-Bera test (null hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal) is not rejected. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation Lagrange multiplier or LM test (null hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order 2) is not rejected. Heteroskedasticity test (null hypothesis: no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity or ARCH effect at lag order 1) is not rejected. Thus, this model yields acceptable results. There are considerably fewer outliers and the fluctuation bands are smaller (Figure 2).
The long-run causality is determined by the error correction term. If the coefficient of the error correction term is significant, then it indicates the evidence of the long-run causality from the explanatory variables to the dependent variable (Toda & Phillips, 1993, 1994). This contains the long-run causal relationship information because it is derived from the cointegrating equation. Table 3 reports the results of VECM estimates. The significance of the coefficient of ECT(t-1) indicates that the lagged structure of ECT(t-1) is unstable, that is, the ECT has a negative effect on the Korean stock market in the long-run dynamics (see Figure 3).
Table 3 reports the results of VECM estimates. Recall hypothesis 1 that exchange rates lead to stock price dynamics in the long-run. For the long-run causality, the results of VEC estimates indicate that the coefficient of the error correction term is significant at the 0.01 level. The results indicate that exchange rates have caused a negative effect to KOSPI in the long-run. The observation confirms that the long-run causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market exists.
The short-run causality in the VEC model can be tested by the block exogeneity Wald test. The block exogeneity Wald test in the VEC system provides Chi-square statistics of coefficients on the lagged endogenous variables. These are used to interpret the statistical significance of coefficients of the endogenous variables. The hypothesis in this test is that the lagged endogenous variable does not Granger cause the dependent variable. Hypothesis 2 states that in the short-run, the stock price dynamics in the Korean stock market (KOSPI) are affected by the nominal exchange rates of the Korean won per the U.S. dollar (USD), the Korean won per the Euro (EUR), the Korean won per the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Korean won per the Chinese yuan (CNY). For the short-run causality, the results support hypothesis 2 for the Japanese yen only. The null of hypothesis can be rejected at the 0.05 level, which means the nominal exchange rate of the Korean won per the Japanese yen leads positively stock price dynamics in the short–run in the Korean stock market.
For hypothesis 3 that the global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 have impacted the stock price dynamics and the Korean economy, the result of VEC estimates indicates that the coefficient of the exogenous variable is significant at the 0.05 level. The observation confirms that the global financial crises and/or external shocks have caused instability in the VEC model, that is, the financial crises have affected changes in the endogenous variables in the VEC model, especially a significant negative effect on money supply. Thus, the significance of the coefficient of the exogenous variable in VEC model 1 indicates that the endogenous variables are affected by both the exogenous shock and their own dynamics in the VEC model. When compared to the results of VEC model 2, the results of two VEC models are very similar in terms of their signs and weights, with only exception of money supply(M2(t-2)). The observation suggests that the impact of the global financial crises on the endogenous variables in the tested VEC model has been marginalized, with reservation on money supply.
In addition to the findings corresponding to the above hypotheses, the impulse responses and variance decomposition may be noteworthy in their impact. A shock to the j-th variable not only directly affects the j-th variable but is also transmitted to all of the other endogenous variables through the dynamic (lag) structure of the vector autoregressive. The effects of the shocks on the endogenous variables can be assessed by estimating impulse responses and variance decomposition functions. An impulse response function traces the effect of a one-time shock to one of the innovations on current and future values of the endogenous variables. Since innovations are usually correlated, it may be viewed as having a common component that cannot be associated with a specific variable. In order to interpret the impulses, it is common to apply a transformation to the innovations so that they become uncorrelated. The Cholesky transforming method uses the inverse of the Cholesky factor of the residual covariance matrix to orthogonalize the impulses. This method imposes an ordering of the variables in the vector autoregressive and attributes all of the effect of any common component to the variable that comes first in the vector autoregressive system. For stationary vector autoregressive models, the impulse responses should die out to zero and the accumulated responses should be asymptote to some constant.
Figure 4 presents the results of the impulse responses of stock prices to Cholesky one standard deviation innovations of three significant endogenous variables: the Korean stock price (KOSPI) and the Korean won per the Japanese yen exchange rate. The graphs of impulse responses confirm that the stock price dynamics in the Korean stock market are affected largely by their own stock market (KOSPI) dynamics and, to some degree, by the nominal exchange rates of the Korean won per the Japanese yen. The response of KOSPI itself to each shock shows a positive impact in the first few months, then declines and levels off after 24 months. Hence, the impulse response of KOSPI is largely determined by its own shock. In addition, the response of KOSPI to the Japanese yen exchange rate shows a positive impact in the short-run while widening but leveling off after 24 months eventually. One might expect that the nominal exchange rate of the Korean won per the Japanese yen has a positive impact on the Korean stock market prices as the inflow in portfolio investment from Japan increases when the Korean won has depreciated against the Japanese yen.
6. Discussion
This research contributes to the existing literature in three main aspects. First, this research uncovers the fact that there exists long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in the Korean stock market. To be noticed, our results do not say anything about causality from stock prices to exchange rates. This might imply that direction of causality is not considered in this research.
Second, the paper empirically explores short-term causality from exchange rates to stock prices in the Korean stock market. Short-run causality only from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock prices is observed. This supports Ogawa and Yang (2008)'s research that the monetary authorities of East Asian countries should care about not only the US dollar and the euro but also the Japanese yen, because Japan has a larger role in intra-regional economic relations.
Finally, the global financial crises of 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 have some impact on the stock price dynamics and the Korean economy. In light of these findings, financial managers can enhance their understanding of the short-run movements of exchange rates and stock price dynamics. A better understanding of these short-run and long-run movements enables financial managers to make well informed investment and financial decisions. While sufficiently understand short-run and long-run movements of exchange rates and stock prices, financial managers and policymakers should as well be aware of that coupling and decoupling effect between specific currencies may exist. This paper suggests that the global financial crises have some impact on the Korean economy, especially on money supply, but it has its limitations in providing much reasoning and convincing points.
Recommendations can be drawn from the findings presented in this paper. From a long-term perspective, policymakers should consider the exchange rates as a policy tool aiming at the Korean stock market since the results of VEC estimates show evidence of the long-run causation from exchange rates such as the Korean won per the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Korean won per the Japanese yen (JPY) to stock prices in the Korean stock market. However, from a short-term perspective, policymakers may consider the exchange rates as a policy tool to manage and control the Korean stock market since the exchange rate of the Korean won per the Japanese yen, to some extent, would cause a positive effect on stock prices in Korea. This policy would be effective in the short-run and should be evaluated soundly.
7. Conclusions
The results of this study acknowledge that: first, there exists long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in the Korean stock market. Second, there exists short-run causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock prices. Third, the global financial crises and/or external shocks have caused instability, to some degree, in the Korean stock market. However, the Korean stock prices are determined largely by their own dynamics in the Korean stock market. It would appear that this inter-dependent behavior of the stock market with exchange rates could be a state of the market liberalization process for its economy to heal and propel itself toward long-run stability and a better future of the Korean stock market. Therefore, policymakers and investors should devote more time and effort acquiring not only the information on changes in monetary policy and temporary external shocks in the short-run but also the knowledge and information about the market itself.
Further research may be directed at some of the above issues. The empirical model may be estimated with alternative economic and financial factors or markets. Studies encompassing different economies should be conducted where data is available. Such research should contribute toward improving our understanding of the market mechanism and responses of each market to the frequently occurring phenomena of economic and financial crisis, whether regional or global.
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- Griffin, J. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2001). International competition and exchange rate shocks: A cross-country industry analysis of stock returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 215-241.
- Hartmann, D., & Pierdzioch, C. (2007). Exchange rates, interventions, and the predictability of stock returns in Japan. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 17(2), 155-172.
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- Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
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- Kim, K-S., Yoon, S-M., & Kim, Y. (2004). Herd behaviors in the stock and foreign exchange markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 341(C), 526-532.
- Kim, S., Lee, J-W., Park, C-Y. (2011). Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling. The World Economy, 34(1), 23-53.
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- Kutty, G. (2010). The relationship between exchange rates and stock prices: The case of Mexico. North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 4(4), 1-12.
- Lee, J. W., & Zhao, T. F. (2014). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from Chinese stock markets. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 1(1), 5-14. DOI:10.13106/jafeb.2014.vol1.no1.5.
- Liao, S-H., Chu, P-H., & You, Y-L. (2011). Mining the co-movement between foreign exchange rates and category stock indexes in the Taiwan financial capital market. Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal, 38(4), 4608-4617.
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- Ratanapakorn, O., & Sharma, S. C. (2007). Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables. Applied Financial Economics, 17(5), 369-377.
- Takagi, S., & Shi, Z. (2011). Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia 1987-2008. Japan and the World Economy, 23(4), 265-272.
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- Zhao, H. (2010). Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance, 24(2), 103-112.


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Control Orchestration Protocol: unified transport API for distributed cloud and network orchestration
JOURNAL OF OPTICAL COMMUNICATIONS AND NETWORKING, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. A216-A222, February 2017, https://www.osapublishing.org/jocn/viewmedia.cfm?uri=jocn-9-2-A216.
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subset: commoncrawl


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Autumn Melt-Down
De-leveraging the System
"The Federal Reserve deliberately leverages the system -- every cycle seems to get more brazen and dangerous. Fed pump-and-dump operations resemble those of a boiler room penny stock operation -- cram a bunch of leverage (excess credit in the Fed's case) into financial markets, entice investors into excessive long positions in the targeted market (penny stocks for boiler rooms, bonds and equities for those who follow the Fed), push the bubble as far as it can go -- then watch from a distance (and deny responsibility) when inevitably, it all goes up in smoke.
The Fed seems to do one of these pump-and-dump operations about every four years. The last was the 2003 51/2% FED Funds drop to 45 year lows of 1%. Previously was the 1999 Y2K credit expansion, which inflated the early 2000 Nasdaq bubble and led to the subsequent crash. The major one before that was the 1992-93 credit expansion, which culminated in the 1994 global bond market debacle. The process of leveraging up the system sends out a signal -- go forth and speculate. Buy stocks, bonds and houses, build buildings, leverage up your holdings. Take no thought for tomorrow. We are in a NEW PARADIGM. Swing for the fences. At some point, the leveraged Ponzi scheme collapses -- either as a result of a Fed tightening -- or it simply topples from its own dead weight of poor ill advised investments (malinvestments). Investment Balloons like trees can't grow to the sky.
Both the Bond and stock Markets, the Real Estate and Commodity markets as well as the Economy are approaching that point. Even though long term interest have fallen and have only recently started to turn around since the FED started tightening over a year ago, it will indubitably be too much Fed tightening that once again upsets the apple cart. There used to be a rule "three steps up and a stumble" well we just had our 10th rate increase and there is increasing evidence of the beginning of involuntary de-leveraging. (The reason that its taking more than three steps before the stumble is because up until this week we were in negative interest rate territory) Remember Money created out of thin air is not Real Capital. When a loan made out of thin air money is repaid it does not go back to the original saver, it just disappears ( gets wiped off the books) and the money supply shrinks.
- Money supply growth has begun to slow
- Banks are beginning to liquidate Treasuries. The Fed has pumped banks full of Treasuries with its low interest rate policy -- and now it is dump time. The model forecast sees an ongoing liquidation of Treasuries by banks.
- Commercial lending has been going nowhere fast. The model sees no recovery in bank commercial lending.
- A slowdown in real estate lending. So far it is just the first signs of a slowdown but common sense sees a much bigger real estate lending slowdown ahead. The sub prime lenders should get hit first.
- We are now witnessing the first significant decrease in refinancing
- All this involuntary de-leveraging process should feed through into weaker corporate results and economic statistics. Once the present seasonally strong period for earnings and the economy is over, WATCH OUT BELOW. Just look at the weakness in the Banking stocks which it is now spreading to the rest of the financial sector (GE etc.) and especially the sub-prime sector.
So the process of leveraging up the system has run its course and the involuntary de-leveraging is underway but de-leveragings are not low-volatility events -- financial market dislocation is likely to begin sometime in the third quarter or certainly no later than the first quarter of 2006. Ii is likely. that the Manipulated Earnings reporting season is keeping a bid under stocks for now, but the news should be mostly downhill from here. Reported S&P500 earnings growth is at a 50 year highs-- But Comparisons should be much harder from here on in… the profit cycle is probably topping. Overvaluation is still a huge issue -- the S&P500 P/E ratio is still 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above its long term average. That may seem cheap (down from 4 standard deviations in 2000), but the bubble era warped the concept of value. John Templeton says to "buy at a point of maximum pessimism and sell at a point of maximum optimism". For the current cycle -- We are definitely at or near an all time highs in Optimism. That's certainly a lot to stew over. But the big point is that the monetary system itself is now contracting liquidity -- right at the point when the majority feels the liquidity bubble can go on indefinitely. This is how a liquidity bubble collapses under its own weight. I'm afraid that I foresee a "market dislocation" in the third quarter, which as you all know goes along with some of the things that I've been writing about lately. When majority opinion is so well-entrenched on one side, there is not room for everybody to exit gracefully.
Be wary of that Old Wall Street Adage "DON"T FIGHT THE FED" -- Watch what is really happening, not what they are saying.
Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, Phd. (retired)
Palm Beach Gardens, FL
14 August 2005


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Should You Be Taking Pycnogenol?
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Feel Free to Share – This information is meant to get you started so you can do more research on your own… dig a little deeper and find what works for you. This article is for educational purposes only, I strongly recommend that you seek advice from your own GP, private doctor, or medical specialist for any ailment, illness, or medical condition.. this article not meant to be a scientific analysis in any way, shape, or form. This forum is for positive uplifting thoughts and ideas… please keep your thoughts and comments positive, loving, and kind.
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Tough laws on immigrant workers hurts Vail, Ritter says
VAIL " Fewer immigrant workers are coming to Colorado because of tougher state laws, but the agricultural, ski and hotel industries are having a tougher time finding seasonal workers, Gov. Bill Ritter said today.
Without citing statistics, Ritter said employers around the state complain they face worker shortages because of laws passed in 2006 to fight illegal immigration. He said efforts to fortify guest worker programs would offer a solution.
"I quite frankly think that one of the people who understood this issue best in public life was (President) George Bush," Ritter said. "George Bush had a real desire to tackle this issue."
One law created a State Patrol unit with the authority to enforce federal immigration law during routine patrols and curb human smuggling. Another barred immigrants from receiving some state services unless they could prove they were in the country legally.
Also in 2006, lawmakers passed a bill requiring police to report anyone they believe to be in the country illegally to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Ritter noted that federal changes to seasonal worker visas means ski resort employees are losing their visas sooner.
Anecdotally, he said Vail could have stayed open another month last year if its guest workers had lengthier visas.
At a minimum, Ritter said, successful immigration policy would "bring illegal immigrants out of the shadows." "Find a way to acknowledge their existence here and the fact they're employed and contributing to the economy," he said.
Ritter spoke to a University of Denver panel studying immigration. The panel will issue a report with policy recommendations to the legislature in December, said Dave Brendsel, a DU spokesman.
Ritter, a Democrat who was elected in 2006, was criticized during his campaign by opponent Bob Beauprez for plea bargains he reached with illegal immigrants while serving as Denver's district attorney.
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In agility, the stuff that goes on between the jumps, the team movement and cuing proper direction is called FlatworkFlatwork is the stuff that happens between the catches. How the team moves and transitions, often without the disc, is flatwork. Flatwork concepts in disc dog are taken from the More. Running agility fast has far more to do with Flatwork than it does the obstacles.
We have a similar situation in the game of disc. All of the important stuff happens between the discs being caught. Putting the dog in position, turning them to the left or right on the run, creating large sweeping patterns that lead in to the vaulting and flipping and that are incorporated into your game of disc.
We've been doing a lot of Flatwork here at Pawsitive Vybe, foundationally speaking, and it's really starting to impact the way we play and teach the game. We're now starting to put some of that foundation into use and it's pretty exciting.
Watch a Demo
Some foundational aspects of Flatwork
Front Cross
This could also be called turn towards me, but the CrossA Cross is an canine agility term that describes a change of working sides. Your dog moves from your left to your right (Heel to Side) or from Clock to More aspect from agility, the dog transitioning from working on Heel to working on Side, is quite important in the application of Flatwork.
So your dog is running towards you after making a catch and is running towards your right, a clockwise circle pattern. A good solid Front CrossOn a Front Cross, your dog switches Flanks in with you in front of them. From Clock to Counter Clockwise Flank or vice versa. Taken directly from the canine agility More could put that dog on a path to the other side of the field – bang! just like that. It's also awesome for bringing a dog sharply in to heel or front position.
Looking at it in the turn towards me sense, it's the dog changing their direction by turning towards you, which just so happens to be the way disc dogs almost always turn when their playing this game.
Rear Cross
This could be called turn away from me, but again that Cross Concept, changing the working side, is important when we're running our dogs.
Your dog is circling clockwise in front of you at the perfect distance to set up a nice big vault, but he's circling and can't make the angle. Call the Rear CrossOn a Rear Cross, the dog switches Flanks with the behind her. From clock to counter clockwise Flank or vice versa. Taken directly from the canine agility world, the Rear More and the dog turns away from you, breaking off the circle and reversing field. When the turn is completed, the dog is standing there looking at the handler with a straight shot at that big vault.
Wham! Huge move! See: working out of the pivot
I guess you could call this a FrontFront is a stable position directly in front of the handler. Front is an traditional obedience skill. Usually your dog sits in this position, but standing is often acceptable as More Cross kind of move, as most dogs will turn towards the handler, but this is movement in relation to the dog's direction and has nothing what-so-ever to do with the handler.
A reverse is simply a direct reversal of field independent of the handler. This is the Zig ZagA Zig Zag is a series of catches in smooth succession that forces the dog to move back and forth across the field. Usually performed at a distance of 8-20 More Skill.
The FlankOut to the side of the handler is the Flank. If the dog is out to the handler's right or left the dog is on Flank. If the dog is More is essentially a moving position. Think of it as working out on your side – out there. Heel and SideHeel position is the same as in obedience, with your dog standing immediately to the left and side has the dog on the right. All obedience positions are helpful in More position are essentially the most simple expression of the Flank. In an obedience Heel, the dog is on your Flank. When we're playing Frisbee and working Flatwork, we're looking for a little more space between dog and handler out there to the side.
Foundational Positions
Foundational Positioning is are the most basic element of Flatwork. They are anchor points that have a kind of gravity about them. Good foundational positioning is extremely important not just for flatwork, but for the entire game of disc.
Good Flatwork = Flow
Flatwork creates flow, plain and simple. Without good flatwork a team will be forced to start and stop many times in their routines, it will look disjointed and the flow will suffer. With good Flatwork the game is nothing but easy flowing motion. Even when you're missing discs, you're looking good. You're jamming.
The weak link in the games of teams who do not flow well or for Handlers who feel that they don't flow well is in Flatwork. It's usually blamed on Disc ManagementDisc Management is a disc dog term that describes management and organization of discs throughout the routine. Disc Management is a scored category in most disc dog freestyle organizations and More and masked by repetitive frontal approaches, pauses in the action, resets before the next trick, excessive scooting, go arounds, amongst other things.
Having the ability to bring the dog in from your left or right and work right from there means that you can now flip your dog with them on the left or right and can do so on the fly. You can send them out to your right to work out there because a pile of discs are always laying out there and you keep running out of discs with 20 seconds left in your routine. You can get vaults out of around the worlds with authority! and easily go from VaultThe dog uses the player´s body as a launching pad to jump for a disc. A Vault is a leaping catch from the handler's body. The dog leaves the ground More to Around the WorldAn Around the World is a disc dog flatwork pattern consisting of 4 catches in a circular pattern around the handler. This pattern is typically larger than 5 yards and More.
Why Flatwork?
Recovering elegantly from being out of position on a missed disc, or calmly and smoothly resetting a missed trick or sequence are big parts of the game as well and Flatwork is the solution to that.
I am a big proponent of taking what the dog gives me in terms of building a routine, but I'm also in favor of making stuff happen. It's real easy to settle in and totally take what your dog is offering because it's too hard to train them to do it differently. I did that through Kimo's entire Career and Leilani didn't really start jamming until I started got working Flatwork.
We're putting some finishing touches on our Flatwork methodology right now and will be sharing it with our friends in SoCal and NorCal in a few weeks.


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PhD Candidacy
Posted on Fri 25 October 2019
Comprehensive Exams ✥
On Thursday, October 24th, I passed the comprehensive written and oral exams, proceeding into the phase of doctoral candidacy. My committee consisted of Dr. Alex Poole, Dr. Weimao Ke, and my advisor, Dr. Jane Greenberg.
I am thrilled to have passed this major milestone, and look forward to the next stage: preparing to defend a doctoral proposal.
Digital Humanities 2019 Conference in Utrecht, Netherlands
Posted on Mon 15 July 2019
Presentation ✥
On Thursday, July 11th, I presented a paper with Temple University's Peter Logan at Digital Humanities 2019 in Utrecht, Netherlands.
Sam Grabus presenting at DH 2019, in Utrecht, demonstrating how the HIVE tool maps naturally-extracted keywords to controlled vocabulary terms.
The presentation, entitled, "Knowledge Representation: Old, New, and Automated Indexing," shared comparative topic relevance results from automatically indexing 19th century Encyclopedia Britannica entries with two controlled vocabularies: an historical knowledge organization system developed by Ephraim Chambers, as well as the contemporary Library of Congress Subject Headings.
Exploring Utrecht ✥
I had the great privilege of exploring the magical city of Utrecht during my stay in the Netherlands.
Highlights included exploring a local bookstore, Broese boekverkopers, enjoying craft beer and mussels at Brouwerij Oudaen, going on a guided tour of Museum Speelklok, and wandering the gorgeous canals that run through the city.
A personal favorite was Ethiopisch Restaurant Sunshine, where I experienced incredible hospitality, vibrant conversation, and pride in sharing their culture with me. The owner brought me the very best soul food, served with the traditional Injera (thin flatbread, similar to pancakes, that you use to scoop up your food). I was also delighted to try his Teji, which is Ethiopian mead, or honey wine. It was made with Ethiopian hops, so the taste was somewhere between beer and wine.
LEADS-4-NDP 2019 Data Science Boot Camp
Posted on Mon 10 June 2019
Boot Camp ✥
The LEADS-4-NDP 2019 fellowship program kicked off this week with a 3-day data science boot camp at Drexel University's College of Computing and Informatics. Eleven fellows from iSchools across the U.S. are paired with nine National Digital Platform partner sites for 10-week remote internships to address data science challenges.
Boot camp sessions included big data management; metadata; data pre-processing; data visualization; data mining and machine learning; large-scale and parallel computing, and automated data analytics tools. As part of the boot camp, LEADS mentors OCLC's Jean Godby and DCIC's Richard Marciano shared about data science opportunities at their institutions; And LEADS mentors Steven Dilliplane, Academy of Natural Sciences, and Peter Logan, Temple University's Digital Scholarship Center, participated in boot camp activities.
Read more about the LEADS program HERE.
Presenting HIVE for Historical Encyclopedia Britannica Research
Posted on Wed 20 February 2019
LEADS-4-NDP Fellowship Research ✥
I was very fortunate to be a part of the "Library Education and Data Science for the National Digital Platform" fellowship during the summer of 2018. The goal of the fellowship program: preparing the next generation of LIS faculty so that they can meaningfully integrate data science and LIS education. The program consisted of three parts: Online preparatory curriculum; 3-day data science boot camp; and a 10-week virtual data science internship with a LEADS-4-NDP project partner.
I had the opportunity to work with Peter Logan, Academic Director of the Digital Scholarship Center (DSC) and Professor of English at Temple University. The DSC is working on "The 19th-Century Knowledge Project," which involves the digitization of 4 historical editions of the Encyclpedia Britannicas (3rd, 7th, 9th, and 11th editions, spanning fron 1797-1911).
Goals of the 19th-Century Knowledge Project:
- Long term goal/Broad data science question: Investigate how the specification of concepts change over time across 4 historical Encyclopedia Britannicas (1797-1911).
- Short term goal: Automated descriptive subject metadata creation for integration into the individual encyclopedia entry XML TEI headings
The Problems:
- Generating subject metadata for a very large corpus
- Linguistic idiosyncrasies of the primary source materials:
- Alternate spellings
- Abbreviations
- Obsolete & regional word usage
- Idioms
- Misspellings, and more
- Wanting Controlled vocabulary terms for the sake of interoperability & metadata consistency
The Solution:
- Automated keyword extraction
- Transformation of keywords into controlled vocabulary terms
- Possibility of indexing with multiple controlled vocabularies
- **Large-scale automatic generation of metadata with Controlled Vocabulary terms**
Moving Forward ✥
Reserach is moving ahead, beyond the scope of the fellowship, with a linked vocabulary/automatic indexing tool called HIVE (Helping Interdisciplinary Vocabulary Engineering), a tool hosted at Drexel University's Metadata Research Center, which integrates controlled vocabularies for the purposes of generating automatically-indexed controlled vocabulary subject headings. Current iterative expeirmental research is refining the RAKE keyword extraction algorithm parameters (e.g., minimum word frequency) to determine which settings return the most relevant results for encyclopedia entries of various lengths. Encyclopedia entry word counts range from less than ten words to over 150,000 words, so the relevancy of the results is not consistent without adjusting the algorithm parameters.
Presenting at Temple ✥
My fellowship and subsequent research on the 19th-Century Knowledge Project has generated much interest among the librarians and staff at Temple University's Paley Library. I am pleased to announce that I will be presenting my current progress next Monday, February 25th. Below you may view the slidedeck, which includes the output from my fellowship work as well as current exploratory analysis and next steps.


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Barchester's Charitable Foundation is a registered charity that helps older people and other adults with disabilities across England, Scotland and Wales.
They give grants to help reduce isolation and loneliness, promote group activities and generally improve people's independence, mobility and quality of life. They aim to give grants that will help people lead more fulfilled lives and reach their full potential.the
This year the focus is about connecting or re-connecting people with others in their local community. Applications that combat loneliness and enable people to be active and engaged will receive highest priority in 2018.
For further information please click here:- https://www.bhcfoundation.org.uk/what-we-do


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(Video shown below story)
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Police are searching for two suspects accused of stealing maintenance items from the basement of an apartment building near the Kansas City River Market area.
Around 10 a.m. on Monday surveillance video captured two men entering the basement of an apartment building through a stairwell door, which was located just inside the entrance to the building.
According to the incident report, one of the men used an unknown tool to pry open the door in order to gain access to two tool rooms, from which they allegedly stole several items including power tools, drill bits and hand tools. The police report approximates the value of the stolen items at just under $1,000.
The suspects in this case are both described as African American males between the ages of 35 and 45, between 5'7″ and 5'9″ tall. The first suspect is described as weighing approximately 230 pounds, with black dreadlocks. He was wearing a dark blue shirt and black tennis shoes. The second suspect is described as weighing about 200 pounds, and wore a multicolored shirt with blue pants and red shoes.
Anyone with information in this case is asked to call the TIPS Hotline at (816) 474-TIPS.
Watch the surveillance video of the two suspects below:


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time for a gear movement update!
we swapped our circa mid 2000's Ampeg BA210 for a Fender Acoustasonic 30 recently. "peggy" as she was called was heavy & great for many gig while we were first making our way around stages. recently though, she'd just been sitting at home. never being used. never quite loud enough anymore. never quite portable enough. she'd done her service(100 gigs approx) & really owed us nothing. so when the opp presented itself, we thought we'd change it up a bit. get an amp that is suitable enough at low volumes for both bass & guitar(trying to play more guitar, ie: once a week) & practice our mic/vocals with. the acoustimatic has 2 channels. one for instruments & another for a mic. a great practice setup that we can quietly tweek our pedals with. another long overdue task. we've also added our drum machine into the chain for practice service & so far so good! so nice to come home & plug into a comfy setup when u only have a few mins to play. if we ever want to get louder with it, it has a lineout that we can plug into anything else.
speaking of effects, we've begun to fall hard for our El Grande Bass Fuzz that we've had for awhile. keeping the settings for fuzz & volume really conservative while using the tone in the middle is giving us a great sound that is perfect mix of low end tasty dirt fuzz! our Carbon Copy delay is also making a rebound. such a fun pedal to practice with! messing with different delay times has been a blast! we are also thinning the herd. gone is the Bass Metaphors to a new lovin' home. our Picasso Boost is likely next. maybe our chorus or the bf2 that have sat on the sidelines for awhile. ah, a pedal family pic from a few months back… we will ever have 10 pedals again?
we also got around to finally swapping out the nickel strings our telebass came with. they were interesting to play with for a time but as time went on, we lusted more & more for the flats we love so dearly. so this past weekend, we made the swap (despite our dream) to d'addario flats. one jam in & we've never been happier. a tad bright at the momement cuz they are sooo new but a huge step towards the low end thump thumpy sound we long for. telebass sound with flats= OMG!
speaking of falling hard, we are in the midst of dealing with our 2nd injury in the past 7 months. back in August of last year, we separated a shoulder that took awhile to heal. now we've gone & cracked/fractured a rib. amazing how much it hurts when we are in the wrong position or doing something that it doesn't like. after getting it checked out on the weekend & being told by a doc to "take it easy, here's some drugs", we are finally heeding the advice. not merely the "we must have slept funny" event as we first thought it was, but the defo result of a very wicked tumble. hoping for a speedy enough recovery that we can get back to jumping around for Skipapalooza in April. well at least we can still play the bass, just have to keep the groovin' movements down a few notches for the next while. in the meantime, our lightweight acoustic bass is getting even more playing time!


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Information from WYSH Radio
An Oliver Springs police officer escaped serious injury Thursday night when his parked patrol car was struck while he responded to a traffic crash.
The incident occurred at the Highway 61/62 interchange Thursday evening as Oliver Springs Police Department Sergeant Charles Graham responded to a minor crash. Preliminary indications are that a second driver struck the back of the officer's patrol car, which in turn caused the cruiser to strike him.
Graham was taken to the University of Tennessee Medical Center in Knoxville for treatment of injuries described as "bumps and bruises."
The incident is being investigated by the Tennessee Highway Patrol. It's not yet clear if there will be any charges or citations against the driver who struck the patrol car.
WYSH Radio in Clinton is an Oak Ridge Today news partner.


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The construction of the church of St. Peter and Paul in Chojnów, also called the "Big Church", began at the end of the 14th century. The mention of the existence of a southern chapel funded by clothiers' guild dates back to 1469. In the 16th century, the sacristy was added and the attic on the tower was made. In 1543, the Bożywoj family funded a northern funerary chapel, called the Chapel of Bożywojs. Until 1525, the church was a Catholic temple, which along with the conversion to Lutheranism of the Duke of Legnica, Frederick II, passed into the hands of Protestants. After the Second World War, it again fell into the hands of the Roman Catholic church.
It is a three-nave basilica with a chancel from the east ended by pentagonal. In the north-west corner there is a massive, square tower crowned with a renaissance attic and a pyramid helmet. The late-gothic, stepped gable of the facade, is filled with the decoration in the form of window trusses. The side elevations were fastened with high buttresses and opened with pointed windows filled with geometrical traceries. From the north to the nave, there is a sacristy from the sixteenth century, the chapel of the Bożywoj family from the middle sixteenth century and a porch with a renaissance gable. A chapel of the Sukienniks dedicated to St. Andrew and St. Catherine from 1469, adjoins the southern nave.
In 1468, the interior of the church was covered with stellar vaults. Likewise, the chapel of Bożywoj was vaulted in the middle of the 16th century, while in the northern porch a three-support vault, also called the Piast vault, was used. Brackets and bosses received a bas-relief decorations, and in the walls of the porch there are recesses with three-leaf arches. The temple also has a main altar from 1400 and a bell from 1405.
Pilch J., Leksykon zabytków architektury Dolnego Śląska, Warszawa 2005.
Website fara-chojnow.pl, Historia chojnowskiej fary.


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What is Science Fair ?
Science reasonable is an open door for understudies to apply the logical strategy to lead autonomous research. The aftereffects of every understudy's ...
Readiness for a science reasonable should start from the get-go in the fall semester with the determination of a point which will prompt an issue that the understudy will wish to investigate. The understudy ought to investigate different wellsprings of data so as to increase a careful comprehension of the theme that the person in question has picked. Other than customary sources, for example, library books, the understudy should look into current periodicals, diaries, Internet sources and meeting experts who are working inside a similar field of study. The understudy ought to realize "what research has just been done and what has been finished up in regards to [the student's] question and furthermore something about the strategies and principles of proof in [the student's] specific field" (Manning-Schwartz, 1997). As it were, a finished investigation of the theme with the goal that the understudy can plan an astute and significant test. The exploration - or writing audit - should represent at any rate half of the understudy's exertion on the venture; fragmented research on the chose subject is the most widely recognized reason for science reasonable judges to exclude ventures for headway.
Science Fair Subjects
1.Science and Technology for
Economical Development
Economical Agricultural Practices
2. Neatness and Health
3, Resource Manage Intent
Advancement as st)
5. A. Future Transport and Communication
B. Instructive Games and Mathematical Modeling (als
Title of One-day Seminar (At District level and State Level). Occasional Table of Elements
CRC Level - Before 31 August
Taluka Level - Before 6 September
Locale Level - Before part of the arrangement
State Level - November
Vigyanmelo 2019-20 Babat Paripatra ane Ayojan
2019-20 na varsh mama ayojit Ganit vigyan pradarshan mate kaya kya vishayo chhe ane CRC kaxa ye vigyanmelo kyare yojashe. Taluka kaxaye vogyan melo kyare yojashe te babat aayojan.
Science Fair Science Prjojects, Vigyan mela krutio, Ganit Vigyan Pradarshan models.
Click here to Visit
Rajya Kaxa Science fair 2015-16 ma aavel best krutio mate ni single book (pdf)
Download : Click here


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June 6, 2018
Earlier last month, a Democratic assemblyman in California introduced a bill to reduce the waste created by one-time use plastic straws in sit down restaurants as a way to "raise awareness about the detrimental effects of plastic straws on our environment." [1] Increasingly, it seems as if no environmentally responsible decision can be too small, but for some small businesses, being environmentally conscious comes at no small cost. The practices of companies like Pittsburgh-based Broudy Printing Inc., however, show that it pays to care about our environment, especially in an industry that some may see as unsustainable.
"We believe sustainability is important," says Matthew Mallet, President of Broudy Printing Inc. "It's good for the planet and for our image as well as the image of our industry."
As a family-owned printer, Broudy Printing Inc. is run by Mallet and 42 other employees.
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) first certified Broudy in 2008, but to Mallet's memory, Broudy has always made the decision to implement various eco-friendly practices. Even with that long history, sustainability is an ongoing process that can always be improved. In 2010, Broudy began using a Solvent recycling system, a several thousand-dollar investment that paid for itself within a year or two by reducing the need to purchase virgin solvent and cut out the cost of hazardous waste removal. [2] Additionally, in 2011, Broudy agreed to purchase wind energy for 100% of its conventional electricity consumption. That agreement with Community Energy made it possible for Broudy to enter into the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Green Power Partnership. [3]
Of course, there are costs to making environmentally conscious choices in business.
"While there are costs to eco-friendly inks, eco-friendly fountain solutions, recycling equipment, storing waste for recycling, and maintaining FSC certification, these costs are relatively small and worth the investment that fits with our sustainability values," says Mallet.
Oftentimes, environmentally conscious choices help Broudy's bottom line. By recycling paper, corrugated boxes, plates, ink, and solvents, Broudy is able to save money by not needing to buy materials and instead receive money for the raw commodities.
In their commitment to sustainability, Broudy is conscious of creating less waste and therefore uses fewer materials like boxes, paper, ink, and plates when working on a job. One example is the speed at which Broudy chooses to run their printers. Running printers at a slower speed allows them to reduce waste by recognizing mistakes faster than if the speed on the machine were turned up higher.
Those simple, deliberate decisions allow them to maintain competitive prices.
"Sustainability is just one of many important factors to our clients," says Mallet. "I feel that as long as our pricing is competitive, most of our clients prefer to use a printer like Broudy with many eco-friendly practices."
Mallet believes that their sustainability practices play a part in attracting clients to do business with them. Clients of Broudy include institutions integral to the economy of Pittsburgh like UPMC, Carnegie Mellon University, and PNC, in addition to companies known nationwide like Bayer, Philips, and American Eagle.
According to Mallet, not only has every request for information that Broudy has completed in the last ten years asked about sustainability, but also their sustainable practices become a frequent topic of discussion when meeting with a new client and giving them a tour of the facility.
Costs in the short term are not as much a concern for Broudy as much as the future survival of the printing industry. If a client feels that printing is an irresponsible environmental decision, they may just decide to print less by eliminating non-essential printed materials.
Broudy Printing Inc. is just one company working to dispel misconceptions that print is an unsustainable industry responsible for killing trees, pollution, and that making eco-friendly business decisions hurts a company's bottom line, while also proving that the industry can be highly sustainable since it is fully recyclable and made from entirely new resources.
If you're interested in sustainability, our Environmental, Health & Safety (EHS) [4] team can help you and your business formulate sustainability goals to achieve Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) or Sustainable Green Printing Partnership (SGP) certification.
[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2018/01/29/plastic-straws-illegal-unless-requested-under-california-bill/1074610001/
[2] http://www.broudyprinting.com/news/environmental/solvent-recycling-system/#more-340
[3] http://www.broudyprinting.com/news/environmental/broudy-moves-to-100-wind-energy/
[4] https://www.printing.org/programs/environmental-health-safety/sustainability-assistance/sustainable-green-printing


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In comparison to other countries in Southeast Asia, I would say that getting a visa for travel to Vietnam is quite complicated and difficult. There are some countries are exempt from Visa for travel to Vietnam, but if you don't come from these countries, you might be denied for this easily. So if you are planning a trip to Vietnam, you should read this article to know how exactly to get a visa for travel to Vietnam before being rejected.
If you come from some specific countries, you don't need visa for travel to Vietnam. However, the number of day exempted is various and for some countries it's accompanied by conditions. Almost of these countries have bilateral relationship en economy y commerce with Vietnam
* The entry date must be at least 30 days from the previous exit. Otherwise that person is required to have appropriate visa to enter Vietnam.
You come from these countries and you want to stay longer, you must have your visa for travel to Vietnam extended or renewed.
First of all you need to differentiate the visa extension and renewal visa. With visa extension for travel to Vietnam, you have new staying duration. The conditions that allow you to have your visa for travel to Vietnam extended are your visa is single entry only it has to be correspondent to your requirement of extension. For instance, if you want to stay 1 more month, you visa for travel to Vietnam must be 1 month single, 1 month multiple entry, 3 months single or 3 months multiple entry.
For renewal visa, you will get a new visa stamp and visa sticker on your passport. And the duration of staying is 3 months maximum. Moreover, renewal visa for travel to Vietnam is suitable for citizen from countries with visa exemption.
In addition, the price for visa extension is much cheaper than renewal visa. This is because with the later, you have to pay stamping fee and visa sticker fee. And if you go to a travel agency or visa center in Vietnam, the prices are also different depending on the where you do it and the amount of time for extension of renewal.
The most thinkable way to get a visa is visiting Vietnamese Embassy in your country. The procedures and visa fee might vary depending on which embassy you work with for your visa for travel to Vietnam. And this process will take to a week, so don't wait until you only have few days left to apply.
In order to save up your time, you should read carefully the procedure and regulations of Vietnamese Embassy in your country on their website. And prepare required documents and fees before going to the embassy.One thing you should know is that Vietnamese Embassies will be closed in Vietnamese national holidays and holidays of the local country.
On February 1, 2017, Vietnamese government implemented an E-Visa system. With this system you can simplify the process of visa for travel to Vietnam. To apply for e-visa you have to complete forms on 2 websites http://www.xuatnhapcanh.gov.vn and http://www.immigration.gov.vn.
You also will be asked to pay a non-refundable fee online (about 25$). And after 3 days, you will know your visa is accepted or not. If you are eligible and accepted, you need to print out your e-visa and show it when you arrive in Vietnam.
Read more Visa for travel to Vietnam
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Noisy straw? Driving yourself or your significant other crazy? Shush your straw!
Just slip each food grade silicone Silencer on your straw on either side of your cup or tumbler lid to hold your straw into place! Voila! Quiet straw.
*Comes with 2 Silencers.
Mermaid Straw is proud to be a member of 1% For The Planet. An organization bringing together more than 2,000 eco-conscious members, in over 45 countries, who pledge a portion of their sales to help protect the future of our planet. Learn more.
I love these! Keeps my metal straws from clanking around in my metal cups! Favorite and I tell ALL my friends!
These really work and my straw stays in place in my cup.😁
Love them
Bought these silencers to keep my straw from slipping out of my cup and they definitely do the job! They do a great job holding the straw in place. Plus, they look really cute and I love that they match my straw tip!


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If the thought of delivering a speech in front of a crowd gives you cold sweats, trembling hands and knots in your stomach…you're not alone. Getting in front of a crowd consistently ranks as a the top 5 fear many people face.
But it doesn't have to be that way. With the right approach and the tricks I will reveal below you'll gain the confidence and calm to present no matter how intimidating your audience may seem.
1. Have One Main Point
When doing a talk we often have too many topics. The key here is to have one main theme and stick to it. Don't digress.
How can you determine if you're saying too much? Ask yourself, " what is the best story I have to tell?". Start with that story and keep editing it. At every point keep asking yourself, " Is what I'm saying now a digression or does it support the central theme?"
2. It's Not About You
The best advice I ever received about public speaking was this isn't about ME. It's about the audience.
When speaking publicly your goal should be to give the audience a gift of something that you learned. When you plan your talk that way you become much more relaxed and comfortable, instantly making you a better speaker!
3. Nail Your Opener
The first two minutes of a talk are probably the most important in captivating your audience. This is where you should capitalize on this fact. Expert speakers recommend starting with a personal story, asking an open ended thought provoking question, or sharing a shocking statistic. Audiences will instantly feel more connected to the speaker and that is an automatic win in the public speaking world.
4. Practice, Practice, Practice And Then Practice More
Confidence is gained by practicing. Those charismatic spontaneously funny speakers are actually people who have written and rewritten their talk over and over again. They have rehearsed their speech so much they can't help but feel comfortable. Keep practicing until you feel certain with your content and delivery. I would recommend giving yourself at least 2 full days to practice.
5. Be Sincere
People can tell someone is acting fake a mile away. No one can be YOU and that's what sets you apart from the rest. People want you to be yourself. In my opinion being sincere gives you credibility and is easily the most rewarding attribute in any speech.
Do you have public speaking tips you would like to share? Comment below!


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Today's Lesson From The Craft Room: Find A Mantra That Helps You On Your Journey
I find that my mind is one of my most powerful muscles when it comes to my swimming (or my art making). If my mind is in a supportive place, I find that my other muscles follow - my arms, legs, lungs (ok, they may not be muscles, but they follow along too!). In the craft room, the muscle of creativity follows if my mind is in a supportive place. But when I fall into negative thinking and let my mind focus on destructive thoughts, my other muscles will follow that thinking as well - and it's like I'm slogging through mud in the pool or a creative block in the craft room. This past week I tried a new mantra for myself when I was swimming. It was something that the Ayurvedic practitioner I recently saw mentioned during one of our classes. The mantra is, "I am on my own hero's journey." I kept coming back to the mantra as I swam and I felt calm, still, peaceful. Find a mantra that helps you on your journey. You other muscles will follow.
Today I am sharing an art journal page that I created for Paper Crafter's Library. I had a ton of fun creating it - using some tape I had painted and some fabric I had marbled. If you are interested in the full step-by-step videos on how I made the page, head on over to Paper Crafter's Library by clicking on the badge in the upper right-hand corner of my blog and check out becoming a Paper Crafter's Library member!


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Thankfully, at 12:15 they called it at TCCOR-1 Recovery which means the storm was definitely moving on and around 5:00 tonight (after being on inside lock down for 52 hours!) we were bumped to "Storm Watch" which means we could leave our residences and the base! The storm is over.
The initial inspection of the outside is that my plants fared pretty well on the front side of the house, but were shredded in the back. Still, because we're on a hill and because our unit faces west, we didn't have any flooding which is not the same for others around the island. The initial reports are that we received over 40 inches of rain!
|The shed survived!!! (This is the same shed of Kelly's that blew apart in the last typhoon.)
So the good news is we are all safe, no major damage was done and - most importantly - we managed not to kill each other after being locked inside our tiny house for two and a half days!


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Posted: December 16th, 2019 | By: Kaitlyn Ruhf
For Bobby Ray Gordon (JD '86), legal education has been the doorway to a career built on decades of service and humanitarian aid.
This doorway, painted with the colors of Mother So Dear, has allowed Gordon to take on numerous international positions, many of which have tasked him to defend the rights — and even the lives — of people all over the world.
"For me, the most memorable and satisfying experiences have been the moments where I have been able to use my legal education and legal skills to help protect the rights, and sometimes lives, of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDP)," says Gordon, who now calls Waipahu, Hawaii, home.
Although he entered the legal profession as a litigator in 1986, Gordon's career has evolved into a collection of more than 15 years of experience in international counsel, humanitarian aid, and disaster response. He took a slight pivot from litigation in 1991 when he joined the Peace Corps and the United Nations (U.N.) as a volunteer legal consultant for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), a role that took him to Hong Kong. It was during this deployment that he met Aida, the woman who would become his wife for more than 22 years.
Gordon went back to practicing litigation after his term with the Peace Corps ended, but he returned to global refugee issues in 2002 when he took on the role of refugee protection officer for the International Rescue Committee. He was assigned to UNHCR offices in Sri Lanka, western Afghanistan, and Sudan.
"To be able to help people in dire straits return to their homes or to begin a new life in a new country with safety and dignity, makes all of the challenges worthwhile," Gordon explains. "In each of my deployments, there was at least one case where I felt I actually made a difference in someone's life."
Gordon continues to contribute to global humanitarian efforts as a multinational planner for the U.S. Pacific Command, a position that requires possible deployment for U.S. foreign disaster response and humanitarian assistance operations. He was most recently deployed in 2015 for the U.S. Pacific Command's Nepal Earthquake Response, which is otherwise known as Operation Sahayogi Haat or Operation "Helping Hand."
Gordon also travels throughout Asia and the Pacific to educate and prepare U.S. and regional military officers on how to support civilian-led disaster response and humanitarian operations under internationally recognized guidelines.
Looking back on his career, Gordon acknowledges that his Wake Forest experience and background in litigation built a strong foundation for the various international positions he has taken on during his lifetime.
"My Wake Forest education and years of litigation practice enabled me to effectively interview asylum seekers, and critically analyze their claims of persecution," Gordon says. "I was also able to effectively research and defend refugees, internally displaced persons, and stateless persons against abuses of their human rights. My legal education now enables me to analyze guidelines on disaster response, humanitarian assistance, and protection of civilians."
Gordon notes that his international law classes with Professor George Walker helped him find the door to his career. In fact, Professor Walker helped him find the keys to that door, too.
"I was required to have a Hawaii Bar member vouch for me," Gordon recalls. "Professor George Walker introduced me to (retired) Major Gen. Ray Starling, Jr. (JD '75) and his wife, Pamela T. Garrison (BA '75), who were Hawaii Bar members living in North Carolina – they vouched for me, enabling me to sit for the Bar."


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As to the front of the Apple iPhone 7 bombers Andrews benchmarking, people expect Samsung Note 7 of the lot, and not just limited to the processor run points increase. Before there are rumors that Samsung Note 7 will support better than fingerprint recognition iris recognition, now this rumor seems to have iron-clad evidence.
Recently, some users reflect Samsung Galaxy Note 5 update after the emergence of iris recognition system options, and Note 5 itself, as well as the full range of current models of Samsung No one has this feature. Therefore, we can safely conclude that this is the new flagship of Samsung Samsung Note 7 to prepare for the iris recognition appears to be no run.
But iris recognition cool though, but is not really black and Technology. You know, last year Microsoft Lumia 950 XL has been the use iris recognition, but the market reaction was less. Do not know what the future after Andrews carry handle Samsung Note 7 to spend iris recognition, it will be what is the big picture it?


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DescriptionIbiza PORTHAND12-2 Wireless Handheld Microphone 203.5mhz
Wireless handheld microphone for portable sound systems PORT8VHF N, PORT10VHF-N, N-PORT12VHF and PORT15-VHF N
Requires a 9V battery
Carrier frequency 203.5MHz
Battery 9V
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