text:
Mar 29, 2008 at 3:17 am #1228044
Ok, here is the new thread that I am attempting to move out of the "Backcountry Cookfires" thread. Flame away.Mar 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm #1426217
Brian James wrote:
"We're using two different definitions of Carbon Neutral. Yours is the official definition"
Well, I'm glad we agree on that.
Brian James wrote:
"whereas I'm using a functional one that I invented."
So, again, a tautology. I'm wrong because you define me as being wrong. But it does verify my suspicion that we are talking about two different things. I'm willing to bet that we actually agree, if you read the link that Arapiles cited closely enough. (In much the same way that he and I found that we were talking about two subtly different things during that argument.)
Brian James wrote:
"I'm not even trying to debate"
That's what I said: you have defined me as wrong, and you are unwilling to have a dialog. Well, maybe I'm wrong… I guess you mean 'debate' as in the classical debate-club sense. Well, neither am I. This isn't a competition. But that doesn't mean I'm going to let anyone get away with specious logic, like using ad hominem attacks or tautologies.
Brian James wrote:
"I could go back through my post and pepper it with… 80's pop psychology… but I feel that you get what I mean."
I didn't ask you to pepper your post with anything; I just asked you to back up what you said, which is generally expected of adults everywhere. And, yes, I get what you said: You said that I am a member of the Vast Environmental Conspiracy, and a pawn of some sort of agenda. Am I taking this too personally, or did I misunderstand what you said? Because it sure sounded like that crack was directed at me.
Sorry, but I do take that personally, and trying to say "Well, this is just my opinion…" is not a mitigating factor. If I say that my opinion of you is that you are an undereducated zealot, should you not take it personally? (I emphasize that I'm not calling you names; I'm trying to make a point.)
Not to mention, the very idea that one person's opinions are just as valid as any other's is ludicrous. Is the opinion of an semiliterate Indonesian drift-net fisherman regarding sustainable fishing just as valid as that of a Fish and Game marine biologist? Of course not!
As I said, for all I know you are a climatologist. And Arapiles and I agreed (I think…) that burning pine cones and twigs that will grow back in one season in something like a Bushbuddy is very sustainable with effectively no net impact on greenhouse gases. At the risk of sounding repetitious: we agreed that large-scale burning of wood for heat and power faster than it regrows is NOT carbon-neutral. My big point was that there is a very fundamental difference between freeing carbon locked in wood and freeing carbon that was fixed in oil millions of years ago. Read about the Azolla event. Before it locked away all that carbon the Earth was a hothouse with no ice at the poles. THAT is the sort of carbon (among other sources of oil) that we are freeing when we burn fossil fuels.
If you just say "You're wrong!", and I just say "No, you're wrong!", what does that accomplish?
Forums are a great place to discuss opinions. But if you have a OPINION on a SCIENTIFIC subject, then DEFEND it. (And please do it in the new thread (Chaff > The Carbon Flame War), if it concerns carbon neutrality, et al.)
On the other hand, if you say "my objection is almost totally aesthetic", well then that ends that, doesn't it? I can't say that I want to find fire rings in the Yosemite back country, either. I'd have to say that I agree with you in principle, though we may differ on exactly how rigid we are about it. (See below.)
But you can't claim some bizzare rationalization based on carbon emissions. That's what I was trying to say.
Arapiles wrote:
"But the interesting thing is I think all three of us agree that the article recommended practices that are wildly outdated and inappropriate."
In national parks, wildernesses, and wildlife refuges, yes. But as I said, I have no great heartburn over small recreational campfires and firepits on BLM or national forest land. I certainly don't want them EVERYWHERE, and I don't want Joe Sixpack going out and building bonfires, but the intended use of those lands is different than the parks. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind if all national forests were changed into parks by fiat, either. I don't understand why the US government has to keep subsidizing Weyerhauser. If that makes lumber too expensive, well, then we can build houses out of brick, like they do in Europe (or at least Germany).Apr 7, 2008 at 1:11 am #1427446
Ooooh goodie, a carbon debate. Can anyone join in?
Just to pick up on what you said about the earth being a hothouse before the 'Azolla event'. It's an underappreciated fact that the earth has spent the majority of the last 500M years at a global average temp of around 22C. That's abut 10C higher than it is at the moment, we're just coming out of a major period of ice ages. Hothouse is the norm for planet earth and no matter what we try do about it, the temperature will rise to 22C and level out again, just as it has after the last 4 major ice age periods during the last 500M years. Here's the graph:
Given the way earth's temp levels out at 22C and 'recovers' from ice ages, we have to conclude that we have been in a period of unusually cool climate and it's going to get a lot hotter in the long run.
Taxing the bejeezus out of us for using cheap airlines won't make any difference, and neither will refraining from lighting small campfires or hiking in sackcloth and the ashes from Joe's bonfire.
Sorry if this is at a bit of a tangent to the original debate.Apr 7, 2008 at 1:52 pm #1427533AnonymousInactive
You may, or may not, be right about what happens in the long run, but the changes illustrated by your graph play out over the course of 100's of millions of years. Life in all its myriad forms is very adaptable, given time, but the events we see playing out today are goosing the process into overdrive(if one can believe the IPCC and others), so that these changes will occur in a matter of centuries. That puts enormous stress on the ability of millions of species to adapt and survive. Some of those creatures, e.g. phytoplankton that produce most of the O2 in the atmosphere, may be critical to our own survival. Nobody knows for sure but, when the stakes are so high, why roll the dice? Maybe better to err on the side of caution?Apr 8, 2008 at 2:02 am #1427639
Humans like to believe that change is 'naturally gradual' because it's less intimidating that way. However, evidence of past events in the fossil rcord and ice core samples show otherwise. Big melts of arctic ice etc have happened over very short timescales many times before, and long before man set fire to coal. Greenland used to be green. Vineland used to support the grape.
Humans also like to believe they are a powerful and influential force on the planet, but in truth, we are pretty insignificant on the big scale of things. In the face of enormous natural forces we cannot control or even affect more than infinitesimally, 'erring on the side of caution' could be 'fiddling while Rome burns'. It could well be that the best course of action for us would be to expend large amounts of fossil fuel energy over the next few decades moving folks inland and up the hill a bit and reconfiguring the infrastructure before the coast goes under.
However, the immediate forecast put out by those who believe that the sun's cyclic changes in erruptivity are a much more important driver of climatic variation than atmospheric CO2 are saying that far from runaway global warming, we are facing a big cooldown period over the next 50 years as sunspot activity drops to a 300 year minimum. The last time this happened, folks were holding ice fairs on the river Thames and River Rhein.
Given the fact that the ice core samples show that rises in CO2 lag behind rises in temperature by several hundred years rather than precede them, I'm inclined to take them seriously. These century scale swings in temperature of several degrees gradually build into the major changes over millenia evidenced by the graph I posted above. Species are adaptable given time as you note, and they will get plenty of 'remisission periods' in which to thrive between 'stressful change periods' where natural selection will be fiercer.
Change is the norm, we have been through a long period since the bronze age of unusually stable climate and have come to regard change as cataclysmic and something to be feared. If our Neolithic ancestors were capable of migrating thousands of miles before advancing glaciers and deserts, and rising or receding seas, we should be able to rise to the challenge too.Apr 8, 2008 at 11:28 am #1427676
Granted there is a certain amount of granularity in global temperatures. The "little ice age" just ended, and the "year without summer" was only a couple of centuries ago. But your graph shows changes in temperature by 10C over the course of 5 million years or so. What is happening now is MUCH quicker than that. Isn't a 2C change predicted in the next 50 years or so? Can I rule out that it is a part of this granularity in global temperatures? No, of course not. I'm not a climatologist, but when 90% of the scientific community (the 90% without grants from Exxon-Mobil) tell me that there is a problem I'm inclined to at least pay attention.
In support, here is a link to an essay that is much discussed, in which a literature search on scientific papers published from 1993-2003 with the keywords "climate change" found no sources dissenting the human impact on global warming:
I will grant that this is one decade, and dissenting papers can be found. Most of them date from the 1970's and 1980's, with a pathetic few as late as 1991. I will also grant that this wan't the most rigorous of research but, heck, it was published in Science magazine.
In addition, here is a list of scientific organizations of national or international stature endorsing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change statement, to whit, that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the rise in temperature through the latter half of the 20th century:
Joint science academy
InterAcademy Council
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
Network of African Science Academies
U.S. National Research Council
American Meteorological Society
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Astronomical Society
American Physical Society
Federal Climate Change Science Program
National Center for Atmospheric Research
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London
American Quaternary Association
Geological Society of America
American Chemical Society
Federation of American Scientists
Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia)
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
European Geosciences Union
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
International Union of Geological Sciences
International Council for Science
European Science Foundation
Note all of those Geological societies…
Here is a list of dissenting scientific organizations of national or international standing:
Note, there are none. I can make a list of individual scientists who dissent, but no organizations. There must be some out there, but my cursory search didn't find them. If you've got one, let me know.
Here is a list of officially noncommittal scientific organizations of national or international standing:
American Association of State Climatologists
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
So even the American Association of PETROLEUM Geologists can't muster a dissenting opinion! Here is the AAPG statement:
Granted, I got this list from Wikipedia, so take it with a grain of salt. I did. I didn't check every organization, but I did check the position of several of the bigger ones.
By the way- what kind of a source is that chart of yours? Isn't geocraft.com a retail dealer of fossils from West Virginia? Can you cite a better source? (Preferably peer-reviewed.) I'd like to read up on this. It was my understanding that there was never a period in Earth's history before 65 million years ago or so that both poles were glaciated.
Incidentally, the original argument wasn't about global warming. It was about the carbon-neutrality of burning wood, as contrasted with fossil fuels, alcohol, etc. It got a little heated, so I tried to move it away from the innocents.Apr 8, 2008 at 1:18 pm #1427687Chris MorganBPL Member
@chrismorganLocale: Southern Oregon
.Apr 8, 2008 at 3:02 pm #1427705AnonymousInactive
Hi Rog,
Dean, see his last post, and I are apparently reading the same sources. The lack of dissent among the best people we have is, I think, pretty compelling. Again, I stress the rate of change as it impacts adaptation. As for moving our collective butts to higher ground like our Neolithic ancestors, they were a relatively few millions in number. There are now ~6.5 billion and counting. Not enough high ground to go around, I suspect, never mind leaving enough to produce our food. Then again, processes already in motion may well be beyond our capability to mitigate. Nobody knows for sure…Interesting discussion in the appropriate forum. Thanks, Dean, for moving it here. It was rapidly degenerating in its former home.Apr 8, 2008 at 4:38 pm #1427714Rick DreherBPL Member
@halfturboLocale: Northernish California
FWIW solar activity as related to recent climate (temperature) changes has been eliminated as a cause.
"Our results show that the observed rapid rise in
global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
It is our collective foot that is on the accelerator. Carry on.Apr 9, 2008 at 12:59 am #1427774
> Isn't a 2C change predicted in the next 50 years or so? Can I rule out that it is a part of this granularity in global temperatures? No, of course not. I'm not a climatologist, but when 90% of the scientific community (the 90% without grants from Exxon-Mobil) tell me that there is a problem I'm inclined to at least pay attention.
Hi Dean, The rise is predicted by a worthless computer model which has been shown to give wildly varying output depending on the intital conditions and unproven assumptions about the effect of CO2 on temperature you start off with. Garbage in – garbage out. Carbon dioxide is in fact a very weak greenhouse gas. The way in which the model comes up with it's scary figures is by assuming that increased atmospheric CO2 will lead to the formation of water vapour ( a greenhouse gas hundreds of times stronger than CO2) in the upper atmosphere. However, NASA's satellites show no increase of water vapour in the stratosphere over the last 20 years. This is a real empirical result, rather than a computer modelled flight of fancy.
Very few climatologists are in the pay of oil companies, compared with the estimated 3.2 billion dollar global warming gravy train funding the research of the 'pro global warming camp'. If you want a research grant these days in climatology, you have to pay lip service to the 'truth' of global warming or be left out in the cold.
>In support, here is a link to an essay that is much discussed, in which a literature search on scientific papers published from 1993-2003 with the keywords "climate change" found no sources dissenting the human impact on global warming:
For 'much discussed' substitute 'much discredited' Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science, not a climatologist, and she was forced to admit an important disingenuity in her methodology after Benny Peiser found her results didn't match up to her stated case. Furthermore, a more recent study of the body of scientific literature discovered very different results:
"Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research. Using the same database and search terms as Oreskes, he examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007. The results have been submitted to the journal Energy and Environment, of which DailyTech has obtained a pre-publication copy. The figures are surprising.
Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers "implicit" endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. This is no "consensus."
The figures are even more shocking when one remembers the watered-down definition of consensus here. Not only does it not require supporting that man is the "primary" cause of warming, but it doesn't require any belief or support for "catastrophic" global warming. In fact of all papers published in this period (2004 to February 2007), only a single one makes any reference to climate change leading to catastrophic results."
>In addition, here is a list of scientific organizations of national or international stature endorsing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change statement, to whit, that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the rise in temperature through the latter half of the 20th century:
[snip long list of worthy organisations]
The IPCC isn't a scientific body, editorial control of it's output rests with politicians and policy makers. Many of the scientists cited in support of it's findings were so angry about the way their work was misrepresented and manipulated that they demanded the withdrawal of their names from the final publication of it's most recent report. They were refused…
In that report, the IPCC admits that due to the current lack of understanding of the effect of solar erruptivity on cloud formation, they cannot quantify it's contribution to global average temperature variation. Illogically, they then go on to provide a definite figure for humankind's contribution to warming as being around 3.7 watts per square meter. The sun on a clear day lands around 1400 watts per square meter on the earths surface….
>Granted, I got this list from Wikipedia
Editorial control of Wikipedias section on global climate is dominated by the 'pro man made global warming camp'. Several attempts to my direct knowledge have been made to correct assumptions and errors in it, but they get reverted and dismissed every time. Wikipedia cannot be taken as a neutral or definitive source on this issue.
>By the way- what kind of a source is that chart of yours? Isn't geocraft.com a retail dealer of fossils from West Virginia? Can you cite a better source? (Preferably peer-reviewed.) I'd like to read up on this.
This page has two seperate graphs of CO2 and temperature over the last 500m years, source for the temp one is NASA.
Note the reversed timescale.
Clearly this page has an agenda, as do all pages on the net regarding the climate issue, continue your own research and form your own conclusions on the scientific evidence, rather than relying on lists of organisations to back a viewpoint which has more to do with politics than science.
Check out 'urban heat island' for a start and why NASA's temp figures for the troposphere don't match up with the supposed rise in surface temperatures. (The southern hemispheres tropospheric temp has been falling almost as much as the northern hemisphere's temp has been rising over the last 20 years. The variation of both is significantly less than the surface figures which have been 'adjusted' (manipulated) to allow (not enough) for the urban heat island effect.
Study the cause and effect issue with the ice core sample results. If rises in CO2 lag behing rises in temperature by hundreds of years, how can CO2 be the cause of temperature rise rather than an effect of that temperature rise?
>Incidentally, the original argument wasn't about global warming. It was about the carbon-neutrality of burning wood, as contrasted with fossil fuels, alcohol, etc
Alcohol is a biofuel as are pine cones and twigs, as are coal and oil. It all comes from the sun's energy in the final analysis. The argument is about the rate at which we unlock the energy from past deposition. I'd agree with you that having a small twig fire to cook your trail dinner is a harmless and enjoyable activity.
I'll back off and let you get on with the debate.
RogApr 9, 2008 at 1:34 am #1427777
>"Our results show that the observed rapid rise in
global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
Hi Rick, The Royal society's paper is talking about solar irradiance, and takes no account of solar erruptivity. There is an important distinction here. Irradiance is the amount of heat given off by the sun. Erruptivity relates to the strength of the solar wind which wards off highly energetic particles entering the solar system from outside. There is recent research which suggests that these particles have much to do with cloud formation which in turn has strong effects on the earth's surface temperature.
The Guardian and the BBC both ran informative articles on this recently, I'll try to find some links for you.Apr 9, 2008 at 2:02 am #1427778
>As for moving our collective butts to higher ground like our Neolithic ancestors, they were a relatively few millions in number. There are now ~6.5 billion and counting. Not enough high ground to go around, I suspect, never mind leaving enough to produce our food.
Hi Tom, fortunately, it looks like we won't have to go to all that trouble. :-)
"All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years."
Isn't it amazing, Bush only has to *say* he wants to reduce CO2 output, and Lo! the earths temperature plummets! ;-)Apr 9, 2008 at 6:53 am #1427792Arapiles .BPL Member
@arapilesLocale: Melbourne
"Very few climatologists are in the pay of oil companies, compared with the estimated 3.2 billion dollar global warming gravy train funding the research of the 'pro global warming camp'. If you want a research grant these days in climatology, you have to pay lip service to the 'truth' of global warming or be left out in the cold."
Insurers and reinsurers aren't debating global warming, they're paying for it – and working out what it's going to cost them in the future. And as actuaries and people with other quantitative science backgrounds they're not exactly into soft-science, they're hard-nosed number-crunchers. And their research isn't funded externally, it's funded internally for their own purposes, so it's not subject to political concerns. And I've never seen even a glimmer of a suggestion from any of the risk studies done by reinsurers that I've seen that throw even the slightest doubt on the reality of global warming. If you want an actuary's view of the evidence for global warming check out SwissRe's on-line resources.
I remember being in Melbourne in 1990 and being shown a graph of the storm insurance claims in Melbourne. Historically most storm claims were for the winter months of June and July. From the mid-80's onwards it very suddenly switched to November/December and I believe that that's still the pattern. The insurer showing me the graph said "and they say there's no such thing as global warming".Apr 9, 2008 at 10:33 am #1427819Rick DreherBPL Member
@halfturboLocale: Northernish California
I see this meme frequently, and it always brings a chuckle and a sigh (along with the semi-popular "man's arrogance" line of thought). When a climatologist retires with a golden parachute the size of Lee Raymond's, we can talk. If nothing else, the various industries potentially negatively affected by a switch from carbon-sourced energy have taken tobacco's playbook and are engaged in vigorous and very effective rear-guard action. Every year they buy is a gift–but at what cost to the rest of us?
Speaking of Lee Raymond:
"The American Enterprise Institute, of which Lee Raymond is vice-chairman, offered $10,000 stipends to scientists for studies disputing the IPCC 2006 report on climate change."
It's silly, really, because the myriad actions required will take decades, and contemporary energy supplies will dwindle even faster with every delay, meaning ultimately a precipitous decline rather than a soft landing for big oil, et al.
Sea water acidification could be equally problematic, as the oceans' buffering capacity is used up.
Very few climatologists are in the pay of oil companies, compared with the estimated 3.2 billion dollar global warming gravy train funding the research of the 'pro global warming camp'. If you want a research grant these days in climatology, you have to pay lip service to the 'truth' of global warming or be left out in the cold.Apr 9, 2008 at 11:34 am #1427827
Regarding the proposed rate of temperature increase that I mentioned, Rog wrote:
"The rise is predicted by a worthless computer model which has been shown to give wildly varying output depending on the inital conditions and unproven assumptions about the effect of CO2 on temperature you start off with."
Well, then it must be eight worthless computer models:
Hmm. I gotta figure out how to post pictures, huh? I've asked several times, so can somebody tell me how to do that? It rather disappoints when my graph doesn't materialize.
Aha! I have found the "Insert Image at Cursor" button that was right in front of my face. (I maintain that it was too obvious.) Evidently I had found it once before, since I posted a picture of a rocket nozzle a while back, but it must have been during a drunken stupor, as I do not remember it.
Rog also wrote:
"Study the cause and effect issue with the ice core sample results. If rises in CO2 lag behing [sic] rises in temperature by hundreds of years, how can CO2 be the cause of temperature rise rather than an effect of that temperature rise?"
That statement is based upon a pretty poor scientific assumption, namely: that the mechanism of current temperature rise is the same as the historical temperature rises that you mention. I think you will agree that rising temperatures lead, through various mechanisms, to a feedback cycle that releases CO2 into the atmosphere. (This is one reason for worries about a "runaway greenhouse effect.") The reverse holds true, as well. Thus, if other incredibly complex mechanisms initiated the temperature rises and falls in the historical record, which most people will agree with you on, that is why the CO2 levels lag. CO2 probably didn't cause these temperature fluctuations, but rather were a result of them and fed back on them, as you said. Your graph starts in the Cambrian, when there were an awful lot of differences compared to the modern biosphere, atmosphere, geology, insolation, etc. A lot of the variables were wildly different, not just CO2!
The proposed mechanism for modern temperature rise is different, and concentrates on the variable that is changing the most significantly: CO2. The IPCC statement only covers the last 50 years, after all. And I will grant that the IPCC isn't a perfect scientific body, but until you can find me a better one that has a dissenting opinion, I'll listen to what they say.
Regarding the Urban Heat Island argument, I can name papers disputing that the effect is real. For example:
Sorry, those are links to an abstracts only, as I do not subscribe to the journal in question. Of course, these papers have attracted criticism, so before you post it, I will. McIntyre:
I would point out, however, that McIntyre was never published on this subject in any way, let alone peer-reviewed. A better criticism is Pielke:
But, these dissenting opinions are definitely a minority. You will notice this theme throughout my post…
When you talk about solar irradiation vs erruptivity, you're taling about the Solanki paper, right? Well, I think I recall that Solanki says in his paper that he has no idea what is causing global warming, and specifically doesn't attribute it to solar activity of any kind. So I would propose that it is neutral on the subject, not dissenting.
Regarding criticisms of the solar hypothesis for global warming, I'd be interested in your critique of this other paper that disagrees with it, and concludes that the observed changes in solar activity have minimal effect:
Regarding the Oreskes paper, Rog Wrote:
"Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research."
And also pointed out the Ms Oreskes is, in fact, a science historian, not a scientist. Well, yes, she is a science historian. I wasn't trying to sneak anything past anyone, and in fact called her work an "essay" for that reason. I could have been more explicit but, shucks, my posts are too long already. (Can I hear an "Amen!"?) I would propose that she is somewhat qualified to perform literature reviews, since that is basically what a science historian does. And, in her defense, she was published and peer-reviewed.
Which is more than can be said of Dr Schulte's work. First, he is an endocrinologist, as you hinted at, so he's not really any better a source than Oreskes, and probably a worse one. (I'm a surgeon, so my opinion of internal medicine specialties is, of course, low. *humor*) Second, the paper in question was never published. Regarding your link, note that it is from a blog, and is a sort of a "heads up" about a paper that will be published soon. Well, it wasn't. I am forced to resort to another blog entry to give the brief story to those who are interested:
In short, Dr Schulte's proposed study was apparently about some sort of psychological patient population who were experiencing angst and anxiety about global warming, and the statistics that you quoted were a by-product of trying to "prove" that such anxiety is irrational. I would thus propose that Schulte may have been biased, since if these fears are not irrational then he has no reason to treat these patients. (And his study covers a different, more recent time period that Oreske's, as you said.) Apparently he and Oreskes got a little heated with each other, and Schulte published a rebuttal to her statements. Here:
An exerpt: Schulte reviewed all 928 papers included in Oreske's paper, and he found a grand total of five that he thinks were mis-categorized in it and should have been analyzed as discounting anthropogenic climate change. That's still only 5/928! And one of them was an AAPG paper- an organization which, as I mentioned earlier, revised it's statements in 2007. Another is obviously more neutral than contradictory (Fernau et al. 1993).
And agin, it wasn't reviewed or published. So, Shulte: not a great source, either.
But BOTH Oreskes and Schulte are individual researchers. I still maintain that consensus from large organizations is a better metric. You will always be able to find someone on the fringe to disagree with even the most obvious conclusions. (Though obvious conclusions HAVE been proven wrong in the past, I know. Look up H. pylori some time…)
Regarding publishing bias, Rog wrote:
"Very few climatologists are in the pay of oil companies, compared with the estimated 3.2 billion dollar global warming gravy train funding the research of the 'pro global warming camp'. "
I refer you to another blog (unfortunately) discussing how the U.S government is subtly pressuring scientists to minimize support for anthropogenic global warming:
IF you want a more formal report, here is the one discussed in the blog entry, published by the Union of Concerned Scientists:
Rog wrote:
"Wikipedia cannot be taken as a neutral or definitive source on this issue."
Well, duh. That's why I said "granted, I got this list from Wikipedia" by way of warning. I think I made my disclaimer obvious, so criticisms by you and others aren't terribly productive. (Agreement and a friendly jab, there, not hostility.) In fact I would go further to state that it isn't a definitive source on ANY issue. But, I find it a good place to start, and then follow the references, and google them, and find dissenting opinions, etc. Realistically, what else are you going to use in a timely fashion? Google- where you can PAY to have your site listed first in the search results?
DISCLAIMER! My graph, above, is from a Wikipedia site! (But, it's such a pretty graph…)
Regarding the sankey website you linked regarding historical CO2 levels: again, a private website, so not a great source. (note my caveats, above, whenever I link a blog, and I always try to find the primary sources.) And not many sources are referenced. Still, it is interesting. I did, despite my protestations, know roughly how the global climate has changed in the past few hundred million years, but I'm learning from this reading. Do you have anything published and peer-reviewed?
Rog wrote:
"Clearly this page has an agenda, as do all pages on the net regarding the climate issue, continue your own research and form your own conclusions on the scientific evidence…"
You got that right, Brother, and I always do. That's why I take everything you say with a grain of salt, too. Note how I check sources. I've discovered that a lot of people posting on fora like this try to bully their way around with inconceivably bad sources. Not all, but probably a majority, and I choose to call them on it. I'm not a geologist or climatologist but I am a scientist, so I at least have a chance of reviewing most scientific papers on global warming with a critical eye. I do not, however, have the time to devote my life to it.
Anyway, we can go back and forth like this FOREVER.
My position in a nutshell:
I think all this discussion is moot. We can argue degree, but the truth is that a VAST majority of scientific organizations AND individual scientists support the anthropogenic hypothesis for global warming. As you mentioned I got that list from Wikipedia, but I also CHECKED it. Can you find me dissenting statements from reputable national or international organizations? Seriously. I haven't had much chance to look, since I have now spent all of my free time on this post so far, but I'm going to try.
I'm willing to agree to disagree if you are. Frankly, I work VERY long hours and this is cutting into quality time with my daughter. Unfortunately I am almost incapable of backing down from an argument, but my knowledge base on this subject isn't as comprehensive as on carbon emissions specifically, so eventually I'm going to tire of the effort that I have to put into this "he said- she said" stuff. (I lay claim to the masculine side of that metaphor, by the way…) (*humor* again)
Glad to hear your concurrence about burning wood. But then again, if you are a "global warming is hogwash" guy, I can hardly imagine that you'd disagree…
Wow. Isn't this fun ???Apr 9, 2008 at 4:15 pm #1427875AnonymousInactive
A one year blip is just a blip, not a trend, and a statistical "zeroing" of the account doesn't put ice back on the glaciers, stop the melting of the permafrost which releases methane in ever increasing quantities, etc. Stay tuned.Apr 10, 2008 at 5:19 am #1427945
Hi Tom, the antarctic has been accreting more ice than it has been losing off its edge for a few years now. I know weve all seen the emotive pictures of chunks dropping off the edge of the Llarson ice shelf in high summer when its film crew season but answer me this:
Where did glaciers used to flow to before man set fire to coal?Apr 10, 2008 at 5:46 am #1427946
Hi Arapiles, I dont deny that there was a period in the second half of the C20th/start of the C21st when the global average temperature rose 0.6C or so. I jus doubt that it has much to do with human activity. The increase of CO2 in the atmoshere doesnt correlate particularly well with temperature for one thing, whereas it correlates very closely with sunspot activity. I will dig out the graphs on my pc when I get home.Apr 10, 2008 at 5:47 am #1427947
Hi Arapiles, I dont deny that there was a period in the second half of the C20th/start of the C21st when the global average temperature rose 0.6C or so. I just doubt that it has much to do with human activity. The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere doesnt correlate particularly well with temperature for one thing, whereas it correlates very closely with sunspot activity. I will dig out the graphs on my pc when I get home.Apr 10, 2008 at 12:06 pm #1427995AnonymousInactive
Yo Rog,
The chunk that dropped off was what, about the size of Massachusetts or so? Can't remember the exact state used for comparison, but it was a pretty hefty chunk of ice. Takes a lot of accretion to offset that. Meanwhile, the Arctic icecap and Greenland ice caps are hemorrhaging, the Himalayan glaciers are melting and, anecdotally, I can assure you that the glaciers here in the PNW are receding further every year. However, while we are focused on warming another, potentially devastating, phenomenon is unfolding; As Rick mentioned, above, the Ph of the oceans is falling due to increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 and the impact on the microorganisms that populate the oceans, often overlooked, is starting to show up; they play a critical role in the maintenance of life as we know it on this planet by anchoring the marine food chain and maintaining atmospheric O2. They operate within fairly narrow ranges of Ph and temperature. Given time, perhaps they could adapt to warmer and more acidic conditions, which brings us back to rate of change; but if they dont, we're in a world of hurt. As I said earlier, why roll the dice when there's so much potentially at stake. Better to back off on our consumption and population growth, and error on the side of caution until we're absolutely sure we understand what's going on. We can always get back to partying hearty later if all of us "Chicken Littles" are wrong. Matter of fact, I'll buy the first round of drinks for us all at that Great Watering Hole in the Sky" if that turns out to be the case.
Not sure what you mean with the glacier flow before man started burning coalreference.Apr 10, 2008 at 12:56 pm #1428002
Hi Tom,
couldnt agree more about the general need to cut down the conspicuous consumption, but I think sometimes folks get carried away and take the principle a bit too far.
Personally speaking, Ive stopped using a car, I grow vegetables, have installed a solar hot water panel, built a battery powered bicycle and walk a lot.
Not going to stop cooking on open fires though, some luxuries are just too good to give up.
My U.S. geography is really poor, isnt MA one of those itty bitty little counties up on the eastern seaboard? :-)Apr 10, 2008 at 2:48 pm #1428017AnonymousInactive
Hi Rog,
Yep, it's the one that has the dubious distinction of being the first one that we invaded, long before Saddam was even a gleam in his daddy's eye. ;)Apr 10, 2008 at 4:21 pm #1428029
I was raised and still live in the county through which the Humber runs, and have both walked to its source and worked on cargo barges through its estuary.
Time for a brew. Tea, coffee, or anything you like. Should we boil up on alcohol, brewed from the grain grown on forest cleared land, or some dry twigs from the foot of some pine or oak?Apr 10, 2008 at 5:01 pm #1428041AnonymousInactive
Or, focus the benevolent rays of the sun through my reading glasses onto our pot and sip contentedly, with clear consciences, knowing that we have used the most sustainable/widely available of energy sources. Twigs in the early AM and late PM, I'll grant you.
By the way, as one gardener to another, you Brits produce the finest Purple Sprouting Broccoli seeds I have yet to lay my grubby paws on. The sprouting broccolis are the mainstay of the late winter/early spring greens section of my garden: Cold hardy, impervious to club root, and prolific beyond belief.Apr 10, 2008 at 7:36 pm #1428074Lynn TramperMember
@retropumpLocale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
What has sustainability have to do with carbon emissions? Any kind of combustion (including our own respiration) will produce carbon dioxide, so surely it's best to drink you tea cold, or heat it with solar energy??
Where can I get these magical broccoli seeds?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.


text:
Hansel from Basel
Changing the topic from the two previous posts but these pretty socks arrived in the mail today from Hansel from Basel. They are perfect. I'm a big fan of the sheer fabric with the white and the polka dots give room for both to show. They are soft and comfortable and what I really like about them, they don't slip down! Such a relief.
Also, if you like this style but aren't big on white, it also comes in grey and black. See more including stockings for kids right here.
Other Stories
7 comments:
Very pretty! They'd go perfectly with pointed kitten heels ;)ReplyDelete
Cool and playful! Love them!ReplyDelete
Love it ♥ !ReplyDelete
Very cool socks! The white polka dots are just so nice!ReplyDelete
They are so cute!ReplyDelete
absolutely precious and darling. i love them in white!ReplyDelete
I can straight away imagine them in a couple of combinations! they're super-duper!ReplyDelete
Thank you for your comments, I love hearing from you!
Questions, comments or sponsorship inquires, please contact me via the 'contact' link.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Latest Comments
"Hello Tanner! I really like this craft. A bit confused thuogh. Glue the photos down first with regular glue and then Mod Podge? On the other hand do I need to Mod Podge twice?"
"directions for making Christmas sway wreath won't appear-blank page only - 0 rating as haven't made yet"
"for rainbow ripple crochet blanket it lists a yarn needle. what is that used for?"
"This Diaper Cake was made for Reed. His parents are avid outdoors-men."
Beginning Crochet: Part 3
We are adding the craft to your Craft Projects.
The project was added to your Craft Projects.
Click here to view your Craft Projects.
There are four basic stitches in crochet. You can create an entire item from single crochet, the easiest of all crochet stitches, but it won't look very interesting!
Single Crochet (sc)- This is the most basic crochet. Insert your hook into the second stitch in your chain stitch. Yarn over and pull back through the chain stick. You will now have TWO loops on your hook. Yarn over again and pull the yarn through both loops. This is a single crochet stitch. The hook is placed through the second stitch only for the first row and in the first in the following. Yay! We can crochet! Here's a video for single crochet stitch.
Half Double Crochet (hc)- Now we are getting a little fancier. Yarn over and stick your hook through the third chain stitch (Again, this for the first row only. Stick your hook through the first stitch for subsequent rows). YO again and pull through. Now with three loops on your hook, YO again and pull through. Here's a video again!
Double Crochet (dc)- Yarn over and stick your hook through the fourth chain stitch. YO and pull through. YO again and pull through the first two loops on your needle. YO again and pull through the last two loops. If you double crochet every stitch, it will be a very tight weave; double crochet every other stitch for a looser weave. Here's a video to demonstrate double crochet.
Triple Crochet (tc)- Now we are just showing off. For this crochet, yarn over TWICE and then stick your hook into the fifth stitch. YO and pull through. YO again and draw it through the first two loops on the hook. Repeat this process two more times until all the loops are off the chain! Again, use tc every other stitch for a loser stitch. Another video might help you out!
Ok, so I can crochet a line. Now what?
Free projects, giveaways, exclusive partner offers, and more straight to your inbox!
Tags / Related Topics
Your Recently Viewed Projects
Images from other crafters
happytreehugger79 8263149
Jul 29, 2015
How come you removed the videos? They sound like they were a great help. Also, if you can't have them on, could you please alter the text a bit please? Thank you )
FaveCrafts Editor JL
Jul 30, 2015
Hi there, unfortunately the videos we had on the page are no longer active on YouTube. However, I encourage you to visit our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/FaveCraftsVideo) for other great crochet videos. Thanks! - Julia from FaveCrafts
thegiltons 2604912
Dec 11, 2014
The videos do not exist. NOT VERY HELPFUL!
FaveCrafts Editor JL
Dec 12, 2014
Thanks so much for pointing this out - I have removed the videos. - Julia from FaveCrafts
Health4a 8129167
Feb 01, 2013
Awesome! Thanks...
mardene3 8874219
Jan 08, 2013
I like this site!!!!
Apr 20, 2011
@ pmilantoni 8766216: The tutorial for a half-double crochet is the 2nd video on this page! -- Editors of FaveCrafts
pmilantoni 8766216
Apr 19, 2011
Do you show how to do a hdc (half double crochet). Sounds like a single crochet, but I know that can't be right. Thanks.
mexlatina541 77691 90
Apr 11, 2011
it was very helpful but it would be nice if you guys had a page of what all the crochet pattern codes mean alot of people dont know including me THANKS :)
mexlatina541 77691 90
Apr 11, 2011
it was very helpful but it would be nice if you guys had a page of what all the crochet pattern codes mean alot of people dont know including me THANKS :)
mexlatina541 77691 90
Apr 11, 2011
it was very helpful but it would be nice if you guys had a page of what all the crochet pattern codes mean alot of people dont know including me THANKS :)
HarleyMoonRider 53 14060
Mar 25, 2011
Really found it easy to follow along with the videos. Found the videos very useful thanks
Julia L
Mar 08, 2011
Hi asbeads 1848840 - I would suggest checking out the following link - there are a ton of great tutorials for left-handed individuals. http://www.allfreecrochet.com/?task=search&search_term=left+handed
asbeads 1848840
Mar 06, 2011
So far I love all the videos, but my complaint is where is instructions for left handed people. I can watch your videos, but I have to figure it out on how to do it left handed. From experience, I reverse what I see to do the stitches, but it would be great to actually see it done for a left handed person.
martinawalker 8381 503
Feb 09, 2011
Jan 24, 2011
Thank you for posting this. I found it quite easy to follow :)
Jan 21, 2011
Create a striped knee rug with woven strips of chain crochet! Crochet a knee rug using rows of single crochet in colours of your choice. In the first and every subsequent row, create gaps every few inches by omitting one single crochet and replacing with one chain, eg sc over 10 stitches, miss one stitch, chain one, sc over next 10 stitches. On the knee rug is complete, you will see you will have several lines of holes running vertically. Create lengths of chain and weave these into these lines, the ends of these chains may either be left to hang loose or may be tied off and woven into the blanket to be invisible. Simple but very effective and a stunning project for a beginner.
KimR NC
Jan 08, 2011
I find these videos quite good....the slow motion enables you to follow along.....I was able to pick it up after the first time....I had learned many years ago but only knew one stich and pattern....very good !
bss8492 8841980
Jan 07, 2011
Again there are no pictures here to help guide me.
Dec 16, 2010
Thank you SOO much! I just learned how to crochet, and I only knew the double crochet, and it DID get very boring. Thanks again!
Crafter 20727
Dec 09, 2010
I have been looking for years for info on how to crochet! And I do mean years!!! This is the first I've found that I can actually understand. Thank you so much!
Crafter 4330745
Nov 10, 2010
I need to know if anybody out there knows how block a crochet patern afther it done?
km486774 8488675
Oct 31, 2010
I am left handed and these are very diffacult for me tofollow Is there left handed instructions
Jul 08, 2010
These videos and the instructions are perfect!
Jun 03, 2010
I have gone through parts 1 and 2. Now when I get to part 3, it says the videos have been removed. Will they be coming back? When and Where?
Jun 02, 2010
Does it matter if you push your needle through like they are in the video or pulling it through? (going over everything then grabing the next chain, where as they are pushing through the next chain)
May 28, 2010
Crafter 14886. A SC2TOG is a single crochet decrease stitch. For instance, if you have 10 chains in the last row and now you need only nine, you will need to decrease the number of stitches in the row you are working on. To do this, you will have your last stitches on your hook, insert your hook in the next stitch or stitch called for, yarn over and pull up a loop(do not pull through), next you put the hook in the next stitch and pull up a loop and then you yarn over and pull the thread through all stitches on the hook which should be three. By doing this, you eliminated one stitch when you pulled the thread through all three stitches on the hook.
Apr 25, 2010
i'm a beginner. but do i really need certain hooks to do certain crochets?
Member 14886
Apr 23, 2010
Feb 28, 2010
This video was great as I was unsure how to do the double! and these video's make it very clear........Thank You PS. wish you would fet some on candle making, it would probably make it alot simpliar for me?? can't wait to watch the next video! !!!! THANK YOU, FROM MUSKEGON,MI.
Feb 28, 2010
Thank you for the best Crochet Lessons ever! I've wanted to learn but have never seen it demonstrated so well. I'm 50 and now I can crochet!!!!!
Crafter 0793009
Feb 18, 2010
I found this video excellent. I have always wanted to learn but never found anyone with the patience to teach me. Thanks again!!
Crafter 6822890
Feb 09, 2010
This is a great stitch tutorial. I always did these stitches but until I saw them done I didnt realize that I was doing a few of them wrong! Thanks !! It was so easy to watch it in slow speed so that not a move was missed! Keep on now with some of the harder ones like shell and puff or stitches like that and I will be a happy camper. I would especiall like to know how to do hairpin crochet. I just love it but cant figure it out! xoxo
Feb 07, 2010
These videos are very good and helpful to me. Long time since I have crochet and I was not sure of myself. Thank you All questions should be showned here. Keeping in file.
Crafter 0288426
Feb 04, 2010
Thanks so much for these videos I can crochet now .
Member 5480736
Feb 03, 2010
I loved all 4 deminstrations I found them very helpful. I have saved them so I can go back and follow along with the recording at my leasure. Thank You
Crafter 0533235
Jan 18, 2010
I made a baby blanket doing an afghan stitch. My friend told me I could put an edging on it using double crochet. Since I haven't crocheted in a long time, I needed a refresher on crocheting. I looked at several websites and didn't find them helpful. I got an email today from Favecrafts and when I opened it there was a link to "basic crocheting". Now I have the courage to do the edging around the blanket. Thank you!
Jan 16, 2010
I always knew how to single crochet but not double or triple. Thanks to these videos I can better understand hoe to make them and can do more projects. Thanks so much.
Jan 03, 2010
I have always wanted to crochet and never have understood it in books. I have bought several. The instructions you have online are very helpful! I have started a project and it actually looks like something. I will continue to use your site. Thanks so much for sharing.
Report Inappropriate Comment
Are you sure you would like to report this comment? It will be flagged for our moderators to take action.
Thank you for taking the time to improve the content on our site.
Project of the Day
Rustic Coffee Filter Wreathvideocam
This Rustic Coffee Filter Wreath is a beautiful home decor item for the fall. It's easy to make and looks great hanging by a mantel… Continue reading: "Rustic Coffee Filter Wreathvideocam"
What's Hot
- Magical Healing Crochet Dishcloth
- Blue Face Scrubby Easy Crochet Pattern
- Basic Beginner Crochet Scarf
- Spa Bath House Washcloths Free Crochet Pattern
- 11 Crochet Stitch Videos
- Spa Day Crochet Washcloths
- Cathedral Motif Granny Square Crochet Pattern
- Whale Applique Crochet Pattern
- Unbelievably Easy Crochet Tree
- Crochet American Girl Dress
Something worth saving?
- SAVE all your favorite crafts
- ADD personal notes
- QUICKLY reference your crafts
Sponsored Content
Our Newest Projects & Articles
- How To Install Bag Feet
- Book Pages Feather Embellishments
- Flared T-shirt Free Pattern
- Black Cat Crochet Pattern
- Crochet Halloween Bunting
- Diy Fall Wall Hanging
- Washi Tape Ornaments
- Godzilla Blanket
- How To Pick Fabric For A Quilt
- How To Make A Witch Hat For Halloween Or Cosplay
Free eBooks
- 11 Crochet Shawl Patterns: Crochet Poncho Patterns, Free Easy Crochet Patterns and More
- 12 Knitted Scarf Patterns: Fabulous Free Knitting Patterns for Beginners
- 14 Free Crochet Patterns for Babies and Toddlers
- 16 Free Crochet Hat Patterns, Scarves, and Gloves
- 22 Free Crochet Patterns: Afghan Patterns, Crochet Hats, and More
- 24 Quick and Easy Knitting Patterns
- 7 Adult Coloring Pages
- 8 Free Apron Sewing Patterns
- Easy Lace Knitting Patterns
- Quick & Easy Decoupage: 12 Fabulous Mod Podge Projects for Your Home


text:
Analyse Your Organisation Categories
The following products help "Analyse Your Organisation" and include:
- SWOT Decision Making Software
- Measuring Innovation Toolkit
- Organisational Climate Questionnaire
Select manufacturer
Results 1 - 3 of 3Show: Items Per Page
$27.00SWOT offers professional managers an effective evaluative technique to aid the decision making process. It identifies, classifies and prioritises issues clearly, highlighting the problem in terms of key underlying issues. Decision makers are then...
$30.00Professor Adrian Furnhan's Organisational Climate Questionnaire measures the climate and culture of an organisation. This excellent product is easy to use and is available for use across the internet or as a paper based product. Contact us to use...
$10.00The Measuring Innovation Software evaluates people's innovativeness. Innovation is measured on various scales, cross sectionally or longitudinally, and a management console analyses the results.
Results 1 - 3 of 3Show: Items Per Page


text:
Sometimes I imagine: My money in the bank is just a floating point number in a mainframe's memory... So, if I just change 1 bit, I will win a lot of money...
The most common way to steal money in banks today is to just ask people for their account information and credentials, through fake e-mails or websites. However, this would seem to leave a fairly high chance of being identified if the victim catches on.
Alternatively, are there more anonymous ways by which one might steal money directly from the bank's servers? Or, is this virtually impossible to the point that the only real weakness lies in the customers?
Is a hack like this only possible in Hollywood movies, or can it really be done in reality? Are there any known cases of this already having happened.


text:
son of
john & surmantha
Aug. 25, 1864
15 Yrs. 9 Mo.
& 1 Day.
The epitaph is taken from the poem "The Young Patriot," which I found in The Rebellion Record, edited by Frank Moore (1865). No author was named.One more buried beneath the sod
One more standing before his God
We should not weep that he has gone
With us tis night with him tis morn.
One more absent,
The battle done;
One more left us,
Victory won.
One more buried
Beneath the sod;
One more standing
Before his God.
Lay him low, lay him low,
Ere the morning break;
Sorrow not, sorrow not,
He minds not heart-ache.
He is one, he is one
Of that noble band
Who have fought, who have died,
For their fatherland.
He needs no tears;
An angel now,
A saintly crown
Upon his brow.
We should not weep
That he is gone;
With us 'tis night,
With him 'tis morn.
Sounds like a soldier's epitaph, doesn't it?
Hunt Cemetery, Delaware County, Ohio


text:
Project SOFC
Activities in the field of fuel cells (SOFC)
PBZ is the coordination group which brings together the activities in the field of fules cells (SOFC) of several research and development institutes.
further information to the project fuel cells (SOFC)
Herr Dr. V. Nischwitz Tel.: 02461-61 1673
Last updated: 04 Feb 2015


text:
Delete my domain forwarding
You can delete domain forwarding at any time. You can still use your domain with other products. It won't get rid of the domain name.
- Log in to your GoDaddy Domain Control Center. (Need help logging in? Find your username or password.)
- Select your domain name from the list to access the Domain Settings page.
- On the Domain Settings page, scroll down to Additional Settings and select Manage DNS.
- Scroll down to the Forwarding section.
- Select the trash can icon next to your forwarded domain or subdomain.
- Confirm you want to remove the forwarding by selecting Delete. Your changes will take take effect in the next 24-48 hours.
Related step
- Ready to build your own website? Take a look at our do-it-yourself Websites + Marketing features.
More info
- Keep your domain active and avoid expiration by turning on auto renew.


text:
Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh slammed the Obama administration's plan to meet Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, saying that Palestinians will reject anything Mr. Abbas agrees to during discussions on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
His comments come one day after militants in Gaza fired two rockets into Israel and as a flare up in violence along the Gaza border left two militants dead.
"Any signature will be invalid, and it won't bind the Palestinian people to anything," Mr. Haniyeh said in a sermon in Gaza City at the start of the Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday. "No one has the right to give up on Jerusalem or the [Palestinian] refugees. Not the [Palestine Liberation Organization] nor any other faction can sign an agreement hurting the Palestinian people's principles and rights."
For Palestinians, Haniyeh's remarks were a jab at his rival, Mr. Abbas, for relenting on a demand that Israel agree to a freeze in settlement construction as a condition to resuming talks with Mr. Netanyahu. And the timing of his comments serve as a reminder that Hamas, which maintains control of Gaza, could play spoiler to this week's attempt to get peace talks back on track.
The about-face "embarrasses the Palestinian leadership," says Ghassan Khatib, a former Palestinian cabinet minister. "This meeting weakens the position of [Abbas] and it makes sense [for] his opponent to take advantage of it."
A spokesman for Abbas's Palestinian Authority insisted that the meeting in New York would not mark the beginning of negotiations, according to media reports. But even the act of meeting with Netanyahu and Obama before Israel imposes a complete freeze on the contruction of settlements is deeply unpopular in the Palestinian territories.
Mitchell so far falls short
US envoy George Mitchell has so far fallen short of an agreement with Israel on US demands for a settlement freeze, which the US sees as a key springboard to negotiations. Israel has been hoping to get an Arab quid pro quo on normalizing ties.
In Israel, the daily Ha'aretz reported that that Israeli and US officials also said that the three-way meeting would not mark the resumption of talks. But that may do little to allay Arab concerns that Abbas is capitulating.
Abbas's improved standing
Abbas's standing among the Palestinian public has improved in recent months because of beefed up security in West Bank cities, an economic revival, and refusing to return to talks with Israel. Hamas, meanwhile, has been struggling in a coastal enclave economically devastated by Israel's blockade and physically destroyed by the Jewish state's January offensive to stop rocket fire.
According to an August public opinion survey by pollster Khalil Shikaki, Abbas tripled his advantage over Haniyeh to 14 percentage points. At the same time, Abbas's Fatah party doubled its lead over Hamas to 16 percentage points.
Palestinian pessimism
But Palestinians are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of Hamas and Abbas reconcilining any time soon. In the Shikaki poll, only 12 percent said they expected a reunification of the West Bank and Gaza soon.
Hannah Sinora, the co-director of the Israel Palestinian Center for Research and Information, says that Hamas's reflexive rejection of peace talks before they are even started reflects confusion among the Islamic militant leadership in Gaza. Though Hamas control over Gaza is tight, Mr. Sinora says that Gazans are grumbling about their leaders.
"Hamas is trying to jump the gun and say they are against any type of settlement," he said. "That means that deep down that they fear that they have lost the support of the Palestinian people."
Haniyeh declared in his sermon that Hamas hasn't abandoned the its original principles – which favor armed attacks on Israeli targets. The group is considered a terrorist organization, according to the US
Hamas has been the main critic of the peace talks backed by Abbas, arguing that 15 years of negotiations have gotten the Palestinians no closer to statehood. According to the conventional wisdom of peace proponents, a successful conclusion to peace negotiations would further marginalize Hamas.
Hamas, the spoiler?
After winning a parliamentary election in 2006 and overrunning Gaza the next year, the Islamic militants strengthened their leverage to be a potential spoiler for any successful conclusion of peace talks.
A Hamas gunman and another militant from a related Gaza militia were killed on Sunday by Israeli fire aimed at militants near the border fence with Israel, news reports said. Overnight Saturday, Gazan militants fired two rockets in the direction of southern Israel, though no one was injured.
"Hamas is trying to appear now as if they are the only authorized power in the Palestinian land," says Nashat Aqtash, a lecturer in communications at Bir Zeit University. "His message for the Israelis and the Americans is: Remember that if you sign an agreement it has no meaning. We are the only legitimate power. You have to talk to us."
|What is to be done between now and 2SS?
|September 17, 2017
|Palestinians Address Obama Directly with Billboard Campaign
|March 14, 2013
|The president who holds Israel's fate in the palm of his hand
|March 14, 2013
|World Bank Transfers $60.5M in Budget Support to PA
|March 14, 2013
|Hamas minister orchestrates plans to launch attacks against Israel: Israeli report
|March 14, 2013
|Bethlehem to host first-ever marathon in April
|March 14, 2013
|The settlers will rise in power in Israel's new government
|March 14, 2013
|Israeli Apartheid
|March 14, 2013
|Israel forces launch arrest raids across West Bank
|March 14, 2013
|This Court Case Was My Only Hope
|March 14, 2013


text:
Ag Progress Days caters to research 'tour'-ists
Ag Progress Days caters to research 'tour'-ists
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- If you have an interest in research related to agriculture and natural resources, organizers of Penn State's Ag Progress Days have a deal for you. Come to the event, Aug. 12-14, board a bus and you'll be transported into the field, where you can learn about topics such as crop production, woodlot management, wildlife habitat, biofuel feedstocks and water quality.
The free, daily tours allow visitors to see production and management practices being studied by Penn State researchers at the surrounding Russell E. Larson Agricultural Research Center, and one tour will take visitors to Penn State's Deer Research Center near the University Park campus. Most tours require some walking or standing.
All tours require free tickets that can be obtained at the boarding area, which is located at the corn crib on Main Street, near the headquarters building at the Ag Progress Days site.
The tours feature the following topics:
-- American Chestnut Foundation Plantings (1.25 hours)
Visit American chestnut breeding orchards and learn about the history and demise of the American chestnut tree. You'll find out about The American Chestnut Foundation's breeding program aimed at restoring the species and see how to plant and maintain chestnut trees. Bus leaves daily at 10 a.m., 1 p.m. and 3:30 p.m., with an additional tour at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Penn State Deer Research Center (2.5 hours)
Visitors can view live deer and learn about deer biology, deer management and current research. In the event of inclement weather, animals will be viewed from the bus and a slide show will be presented in the display room. Bus leaves daily at 11 a.m., with additional tours Tuesday at 3 p.m. and Wednesday at 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. Note: Due to possible transmission of diseases to animals, certain restrictions apply.
-- Habitat Management for Deer and Other Wildlife (1.5 hours)
This tour will focus on food plots and habitat management practices as part of a Quality Deer Management System to improve habitat for many wildlife species while producing healthier and larger deer. Visit recently installed habitat demonstration plots in the woodlot and neighboring fields. Bus leaves daily at 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., with an additional tour at 5 p.m. on Wednesday.
-- High Tunnel Research and Education Facility (1.25 hours)
The High Tunnel Research and Education Facility at Rock Springs demonstrates the most current production systems for horticultural crops that can be produced in high tunnels. Bus leaves daily at 1:30 p.m.
-- Management Tactics for High-Yielding Soybeans (1 hour)
Learn about sustainable practices needed to create and sustain high yields on Pennsylvania soils and in turn meet the growing local and worldwide demand for soybeans. The tour will showcase how no-till, cover crops, gypsum, high-yielding varieties, and pest and soil management tactics can lead to improved soybean yields. Bus leaves daily at 10:30 a.m. and 2 p.m.
-- Pasture Management and Rotational Grazing (1.5 hours)
This tour will cover pasture management issues for equine and cattle and highlight conservation practices that can support livestock while protecting natural resources. See how to set up paddocks or an exercise area for your animals and learn how to maintain healthy grass and legume pastures. A live demonstration of moving animals through a rotational grazing system will be presented. Bus leaves daily at 10:30 a.m., 12:30 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.
-- Short Rotation Woody Crops for Biomass (1 hour)
What are short rotation woody crops? How do they contribute to biomass feedstock? Why are they being promoted for marginal planting sites? What type of species should you grow and who will buy it? Find the answers by visiting a demonstration plot with fast-growing willow and poplar trees. Learn how to grow, harvest and produce this crop as an alternative income opportunity that helps provide sustainable energy supplies. Bus leaves daily at noon.
-- Stream (Riparian) Buffers and Native Prairie Grasses (1 hour)
Learn how a riparian buffer can enhance your property and improve water quality in your community. This tour will cover the benefits of forested and grassed stream buffers, as well as how to install and maintain them. You'll see a prairie grass demonstration and learn how to establish and maintain native grasses with wildflowers for wildlife habitat, biofuels and more. Bus leaves daily at 11:30 a.m.
-- Woodlot Management: Decisions and Actions (1.5 hours)
Visitors can compare a recently thinned area due to ash mortality from emerald ash borer and a young white pine stand that was thinned five years ago; get a look at particularly aggressive invasive plant species and their management; and see how a decision to cut birch firewood five years ago has changed the development path in one stand. Bus leaves daily at 9:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m., with additional tours Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. and Wednesday at 3:30 p.m. and 5 p.m.
Sponsored by Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences, Ag Progress Days is held at the Russell E. Larson Agricultural Research Center at Rock Springs, 9 miles southwest of State College on Route 45. Hours are 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Aug. 12, 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Aug. 13 and 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Aug. 14. Admission and parking are free.
For more information, visit the Ag Progress Days website. Twitter users can share information about the event using the hashtag #agprogress, and Facebook users can find the event at http://www.facebook.com/AgProgressDays.


text:
Abandoned in Australia Part 1: The mystery
Family lore told the tale of how my great-great grandfather William Stephen Stead's wife, Sarah, (no surname known) died in childbirth on her way from England to Australia, and how William then turned around and came back to England with 2 of his 4 children, leaving two behind in Australia. The time period was given as around 1868.
Over time the family in England lost touch with the family in Australia. Grandma always said that it was two little boys left behind, and that one died while the other lived, married and raised a family in Australia.
I wanted to know more. But how would I research this?
|Sarah Elvery Stead 1836-1867
My Grandmother had a CDV (Carte de Visite) taken circa mid 1860s of a young woman. Grandma said her mother had given it to her and told her it was the only picture she had of her mother who died in Australia. On the back was written "Your mother Sarah Stead"
The only other item that Grandma had was a letter written by her sister Lily which gave some details. This letter from Lillian Simpson, granddaughter of William Stephen Stead, written in 1964, stated
"Since then they found out that Grandfather had married twice - would I let them know of any children of that marriage. I told them there were two sons and one daughter, all deceased, and I never knew the second wife. Grandma [Sarah Elvery] died four days after they arrived in Australia. When my mother [Sarah Jane Stead] was only four years old, Grandfather came back to England, leaving Uncles William and Edward out there, and brought back mother and Uncle Charles with him."
Grandma had one other item of interest - a letter from her niece, the step-daughter of her sister Lillian. Pansy, the step-daughter said in her letter:
"Great-grandma's name, was, I think, Stead. I don't know if you know that in 1867 Great-Grandfather Stead [William Stephen] sailed to Australia. His wife died soon after. He left two sons out there - Edward was one. I don't know the other one's name. He brought Grandma Simpson [Sarah Jane Stead] and Uncle Charlie Stead back. Daisy and Ethel were from the two sons left in Australia so I know they were cousins, and they visited mum in Enfield."
And so I began my hunt for poor Sarah. Remember this was many years ago - back in 1995 before Internet Genealogy was in full swing, long before ships passenger lists or vital records or other genealogy databases were online.
So I began my search with a posting to an Australian newsgroup, titled "Stead in Australia". No responses. I tried again, this time calling my post "Looking for Stead" Still zero replies.
It was then I decided that I needed to grab readers' attention with my post title. I re-sent the original post but this time I called it "Abandoned in Australia". This brought a tremendous response. Over a dozen helpful Australians writing to say they would go on a hunt for my missing great-great-grandmother Sarah Stead and her children.
See all 4 parts in the series Abandoned in Australia


text:
Barbara Shecter, Financial Post · Apr. 6, 2009 | Last Updated: Apr. 6, 2009 6:07 PM ET
Biovail Corp. founder Eugene Melnyk took the stand Monday in the Ontario Securities Commission's case against him and portrayed himself as a high-level "strategist" with little direct knowledge of the inner legal and financial workings of the pharmaceutical company and a reluctance to second-guess skilled experts he hired as subordinates.
But given the first chance to question the man at the centre of the regulator's year-old case against Biovail, OSC lawyer Johanna Superina attempted to chip away at that explanation of events that led to the commission to file allegations against Mr. Melnyk and three other former employees, as well as the company.
Mr. Melnyk is alleged to have improperly blamed a 2003 revenue shortfall at Canada's largest publicly-traded pharmaceutical company on a truck accident near Chicago.
During questioning by his lawyer, Kent Thomson, Mr. Melnyk said his formal education ended at Grade 12, when he "lost interest" following the death of his father, a doctor.
He went to work and ultimately founded or co-founded a series of companies that led to the creation of Biovail, with 2,000 employees and a market value of $3.4-billion.
"I was viewed in the company as the person who was more the strategist," Mr. Melnyk told a three-person OSC panel that is hearing the case.
"I would surround myself, though, as we were a large company, with what I would expect to be the best and the brightest," Mr. Melnyk said of his key employees who provided operations and financial information for earnings releases and regulatory filings.
"It was their responsibility to get it right. I wouldn't be second-guessing them."
Three former Biovail executives including the finance chief also faced OSC allegations but they, and the company, settled before the hearing began last month.
Late Monday, under cross-examination by Ms. Superina, a lawyer for the OSC, Mr. Melnyk acknowledged that he would occasionally skip over the chain of command and call subordinates directly to monitor business details.
It "would be a very rare occasion that I would do that," such as to track shipments out of Biovail's Steinbach, Man., plant as the end of a crucial third quarter approached, Mr. Melnyk said.
"So in some ways you had a hands-on management style?" Ms. Superina asked.
"In a crisis situation, yes," Mr. Melnyk responded.
He told the OSC panel that he and other executives were aware in August of 2003 there was a "risk" Bioval would fail to meet third quarter revenue targets in 2003, in part because of production products related to new drug Wellbutrin XL.
However, he said he stepped in to address the manufacturing and packaging problems and no one at the company had concluded the financial target would be missed before the truck accident in October of 2003.
Mr. Melnyk described the aftermath of the truck collision as "pandemonium" at Biovail, where executives quickly made the decision to inform investors of the company's first revenue shortfall in its history.
He said he delegated the job of compiling the numbers to finance chief Brian Crombie, while he fielded as many as 100 emails an hour at his office in Barbados and considered how to handle the revenue miss with bankers, investors and employees.
"He's a very competent person. I trusted him," Mr. Melnyk said of the Harvard-educated Mr. Crombie.
Still, while the revenue loss estimates attributed to the accident of up to US$20-million appeared reasonable to him, Mr. Melnyk said he asked "tough questions" of the finance chief.
"I said: 'Brian, are you absolutely sure?' I must've asked him two or three times."
It wasn't until sometime later, he said, that he learned Mr. Crombie's calculations included the contents of three trucks even though only one was involved in the accident in the United States.
Mr. Melnyk's lawyer asked him why the executives chose to put out hastily compiled financial information rather than simply remind investors about previously disclosed "safe harbour" statements that warn of potential risks to future results.
"To me it was almost unconscionable not to go out with as much information" as possible at the time, Mr. Melnyk said. "You owe it to your shareholders and stakeholders."
The unacceptable alternative, he said, would have been to emerge "shielded behind a wall of lawyers a month later [or] two months later."
Mr. Melnyk said a second press release on the earnings miss and the recovery of some product was issued only because a Bank of America analyst report published on Oct. 8, 2003, suggested the Biovail's truck involved in the accident was empty when it was shipped.
"To suggest what he was suggesting was criminal," Mr. Melnyk said, adding that the implication was that Biovail had sent out an empty truck and somehow "orchestrated" a fraud including a traffic accident that killed eight people.
"I've seen very vicious attacks on companies. I've never seen anything like this — ever," Mr. Melnyk said, adding that the bank report generated headlines "across the world."
The hearing was adjourned until Tuesday when Ms. Superina is to continue her cross-examination of Mr. Melnyk.


text:
SUNY Canton and Moscow State to Expand RelationsMonday, June 4th, 2007
Several academic administrators from Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU) in Russia recently visited SUNY Canton to build upon the strengths of the two colleges' dual degree program.
"We are looking to create a deeper partnership and expand upon our existing programs," noted Pauline A. Graveline, School of Liberal Studies and Support Services Dean. "We are finding that many possibilities for academic development and professional development, and overall collegiate expansion exist through SUNY Canton OnLine."
Approximately two years ago, SUNY Canton was the first college within the State University of New York system to implement a dual degree program with Moscow State University. "Realizing the tremendous opportunities that our agreement affords students at Moscow State University, college administrators and educators from Russia are seeking to develop more dual degree programs with other colleges within SUNY, as well as with SUNY Canton," said Provost Jeremy D. Brown.
The collected college officials, which included several faculty members who teach or participate in SUNY Canton OnLine courses, discussed several key areas of growth, including:
- Creating courses or clusters of programs leading to certificates for students.
- Professional training workshops for professionals at both colleges, delivered either face-to-face, or through video conferences.
- Expanded training seminars for faculty members from both colleges to aid in online course development.
- Developing courses for SUNY Canton students presented by International Scholars.
- Continuing summer programs that offer immersion into English speaking homes and communities, while earning college credit.
SUNYIT School of Business Dean Stephen J. Havlovic also discussed expanding the Master of Business Administration program, so students at MSU who are enrolled in SUNY Canton's Financial Services program can seamlessly earn their master's degree. "We strive to present every opportunity available to our students, regardless of their geographic location," said Brown.
The dignitaries and faculty members who visited the college included:
- Alexander Mikhialev, Vice Rector for Distance Learning
- Alexander Lukshin, Vice Dean of the Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics at MSU
- Petr Vrzheshch, Vice Rector for Science and Development from MSU
- John Ryder, Director of International Programs from the State University of New York
- Olga Zinovieva, Director the State University of New York Moscow Office of International Programs
SUNY Canton OnLine is one of the fastest growing sections of SUNY Canton and is open to students on-campus, in addition to those who live in a different state, or country.


text:
I have worked with a number of grades, between the regular school year and summer school, including 6th - 12th grade. I originally started with an elementary background, and so I have some elementary materials as well. For the past few years, I moved up to higher education, teaching at a community college.
I think that discussion and writing are the way students learn. I feel the more they write they better they write, and the more they hear from their peers and contribute themselves, the better their understanding.
SUNY Oswego, Oswego, NY - B.A. Le Moyne College, Syracuse, NY - M.S.T.
I am willing to bargin on most of my prices. If you are interested in a product, but feel the price is too high, let me know under My Questions. I will almost always come down a little. P.S. If you buy one of my products, please go back and rate it. I'm very interested to know what you think of it, and always willing to revise it and make it better.
PreK, Kindergarten, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, Higher Education, Adult Education, Homeschool
English Language Arts, Writing-Expository, Specialty, Math, Applied Math, Science, Social Studies - History, U.S. History, World Language, Spanish, Arts & Music, Graphic Arts, Drama, Career and Technical Education, Business, Communications, English, Medicine, Nursing, For All Subject Areas, Business, Family Consumer Sciences, Employment, Writing, Writing, Writing-Essays


text:
Syrian warplanes tore along the Turkish frontier on Monday and bombed the rebel-held town of Ras al-Ain just meters (yards) inside the border, sending scores of civilians scrambling for safety into Turkey.
The Local Coordination Committees, a Syrian grassroots opposition group, said 16 people had died in the air strikes. The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at 12, including seven Islamist militant fighters.
Helicopters also strafed targets near Ras al-Ain, which fell to rebels on Thursday during an advance into Syria's mixed Arab and Kurdish northeast.
The offensive has caused some of the biggest refugee movements since the Syrian conflict began nearly 20 months ago.
Though Turkey is reluctant to be drawn into a regional conflict, the proximity of Monday's bombing raids marked a fresh test of its pledge to defend itself from any violation of its territory or any spillover of violence from Syria.
One of the jets struck within meters of the barbed-wire fence that divides Ras al-Ain from the Turkish settlement of Ceylanpinar, sending up plumes of black smoke.
From a vantage point in Turkey close to the border, the warplane appeared at one point to enter Turkish airspace.
At a clinic in Ceylanpinar, doctors tended a small child covered in blood. Anxious residents crowded outside a teahouse, watching the bombing and helicopter.
"I thought the Turkish government said it wouldn't allow these helicopters to come so close to the border," said one Turk, who declined to be named. "Look, they're coming inside our border."
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the jets did not violate Turkish air space but that Turkey had informed the U.N. Security Council and NATO about the latest strikes.
"The Assad regime is responsible for what took place. The secondary responsibility sits with the U.N. Security Council for their inaction," Davutoglu was quoted as saying by the state-run Anatolian news agency.
Some 9,000 Syrians fled the fighting in Ras al-Ain into Turkey in one 24-hour period last week, swelling to over 120,000 the number of registered refugees in Turkish camps, with winter setting in. Tens of thousands more are unregistered and living in Turkish homes.
Turkey is growing increasingly concerned about security along its border with Syria, in an area of the southeast where Ankara is also fighting an emboldened Kurdish insurgency.
Ankara says it has fired back in retaliation for stray gunfire and mortar rounds landing on Turkish soil, and is talking to its NATO allies about the possible deployment of Patriot surface-to-air missiles near the border.
Turkey says this would be a defensive step, but it could also be a prelude to enforcing a no-fly zone in Syria to limit the reach of President Bashar al-Assad's air power. Western powers have so far been reluctant to take such a step.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Monday the military alliance would "do what it takes to protect and defend Turkey, our ally".
"We have all plans in place to make sure that we can protect and defend Turkey and hopefully that way also deter to that attacks on Turkey will not take place," he said in Prague.
Ras al-Ain, 600 km (375 miles) from Damascus, is part of Syria's northeastern oil-producing province of Hasaka, home to many of Syria's million-strong Kurdish minority.
Syrian Kurds have largely stayed away from the anti-Assad revolt and fear that the mostly Sunni Muslim Arab rebels will ignore their aspirations for autonomy in any post-Assad era.


text:
It's that time again. It's time for me harp about buying a new computer for Christmas. I know, I know: This is the third year in a row. But the times don't change, and the situation is the same every year.
And I know it's pointless. The people who are set on buying new computers are going to bicker with me, or rationalize the purchase, or tell me how terribly old their computer is. Regardless of what I say, their minds are made up.
And I know it's wasted effort. My rant isn't going to actually prevent the interaction from taking place. It might only persuade one or two people not to make a purchase. It does nothing to stem the flow, to keep companies from advertising or intercede in the transaction. I'm attacking the symptom, not stopping the disease.
And I know it's inappropriate. Your business is your business. Your lifestyle is your lifestyle. Your way is your way. For me to tell you what to do is presumptuous, and a tiny bit rude.
And I know it's an issue of perspective. Old, to me, is something clunking along in the i486 bracket. And anything after 2000 is beyond perfectly usable. Anyone born after 1992 will think that hilarious.
And I know it's empty. Talk is cheap, and blog posts are even cheaper. I'm not in a position to come over to your house, obstruct your driveway with my body and physically block FedEx from delivering to you. So my complaint is only words, no action.
And I know it's farcical. I'm crazy; I acknowledge it. I run my life and this site with machines that date well back to the last century, and see no fault in ripping an operating system down to a flashing cursor to make a computer usable. Not many people do.
But I don't care, really. I feel obligated to serve as gadfly at this time of year, and remind you that new junk doesn't equal love, that corporations are taking advantage of your emotions to make money, and that the machine you have is probably fine, you just need to look at it in a different light.
Of course, having said all that, I see now that I've wasted all my time and space, before I ever got to the point. So I'll distill it and leave you with its essence:
Don't buy a new computer for Christmas. It's too expensive, it's a shallow gift and the one you have is fine, I'm sure. Save your money, or give it to charity.
Oh, and Happy New Year.


text:
Asynchronous Programming in Python
Twisted is pretty good. It sits as one of the top networking libraries in Python, and with good reason. It is properly asynchronous, flexible, and mature. But it also has some pretty serious flaws that make it harder than necessary for programmers to use.
This hinders adoption of Twisted, and (worse) it hinders adoption of asynchronous programming in general. Unfortunately, fixing most of these flaws in the context of Twisted would cause massive compatibility problems. This makes me think the world could use a new, Pythonic, asynchronous programming library. Perhaps it should be a fork of Twisted; perhaps it should be a brand-new project. Either way, it would make life much nicer for programmers like you and me in the future.
Toward A Better Event Library
Here is what Twisted gets right:
- Pervasive asynchrony.
- The "reactor" pattern.
- Each asynchronous function does not take callbacks as parameters; it just returns a promise (which Twisted calls a "deferred").
- Able to use modern select()-replacements like kqueue, epoll, etc.
- Integrates with the GTK+ event loop. Same for other GUI toolkits.
These things are all absolutely crucial and Twisted nails them. This is what makes Twisted so great.
Here is what I would do differently:
- Limited scope – This project has no need to include dozens of incomplete and neglected protocols. Instead, such things can easily (and should) be maintained as separate projects. For example, we don't need two-and-a-half half-assed HTTP modules, but what if we had one excellent asynchronous HTTP library, which incidentally achieves asynchrony by means of this event library. It might start off as a port of httplib2, which is well designed even if it lacks asynchrony. This would leave the maintainers of the core event system more time to focus on making a really coherent, "as-simple-as-possible-but-no-simpler", useful tool.
- User-focused design – A good library, like a good language, should make simple things simple and hard things possible. Twisted makes simple things possible and hard things possible. Most users don't particularly want to extend base classes to implement derived Factories and Protocols and Clients, they just want to fetch the document at a URL (asynchronously!). Achieving this ease of use is not terribly hard, but it requires conscious effort. You must start by designing the ideal top-level interface, then work downward and make it operate correctly. Twisted's web modules (I don't mean to pick only on HTTP here; these are just examples) look to me as if they started from the basic building blocks and added on pieces until HTTP was achieved. We are left with whatever interface happened to come out at the end. Further, they look like they were written by former C++ and Java programmers who haven't yet fully realized that Python code doesn't have to be so complicated.
- Arbitrary events – Promises should let you send more than just "success" and "failure". You should be able to emit arbitrarily-named events. For example, suppose you make an HTTP request. In the simple case, you just want the complete document when it is fully received. But what if you also want to update a progress bar for the transfer? You shouldn't have to start digging through the HTTP library's low-level unbuffered innards. Instead, the promise that eventually delivers you the HTTP response should also emit progress signals that you may observe if you wish.
- Simple promises – Do not implicitly "chain" callbacks.
Simple Promises
This last problem deserves special attention. The rest are mere annoyances and could be suffered through, if not for implicit chaining. It is a fundamental design flaw, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that it's responsible for more bugs in Twisted-using programs than any other single factor.
Let me first spell out exactly what I mean here by "implicitly chained" callbacks and "simple" promises. In Twisted, you can write:
deferred = background_job()
Each callback here will be given the return value of the previous callback. I'll refer to that as implicit chaining.
Instead I advocate having the promise give each callback simply the same
value – the original result of the background job. So I'll call this a
simple promise. (In these examples, I'll use
deferred for objects with
implicit chaining and
promise for simple promises.)
promise = background_job()
In this example, each callback will get the exact same value. Nothing that any one of them does can affect the others.
Simple promises are more general. The key is to have
addCallback and
its friends return a new promise for the result of the callback. With this
feature, you can still chain callbacks, but you must do it explicitly. That is
a good thing. Consider a deferred with implicit chaining:
def add4(n):
return n + 4
deferred = background_job()
background_job supplies a value of 3, this example will log
We can just as easily do that without implicit chaining:
def add4(n):
return n + 4
promise = background_job()
promise2 = promise.addCallback(add4)
This also logs
7. Now let's look at an example starting with a simple
promise = background_job()
This logs
3, twice. But try doing this with implicit chaining. It can't be
expressed. (Yes, you could achieve the same output in many different ways, but
here I'm concerned with the structure of control flow.)
More importantly, implicitly chained callbacks are confusing. You must pay careful attention to the order in which you add callbacks. They require complicated diagrams to explain how they behave. If you want to insert a new callback somewhere, you have to be extra careful when you do it, to ensure it goes in the right place in the chain. By contrast, if you want to insert a new callback somewhere with simple promises, you have only to stick it on the correct promise.
Further, implicit chaining makes you do extra work to propagate return values
and errors, even when your callback properly doesn't care about such things.
Let's say you have the following snippet (which is the same for either a
promise or a
either = background_job()
either.addCallbacks(my_result, my_error_handler)
You just want some basic logging to check what's going on. With a simple promise, that's easy:
promise = background_job()
promise.addCallbacks(my_result, my_error_handler)
With implicit chaining, it's more work:
def safe_identity_log(x):
# If log raises an exception, we still
# want our real callback to fire, so we
# have to catch everything here, even
# though that has nothing to do with the
# function of this callback.
# Likewise, we must take care to return
# the original value, or else the
# callback will just get None.
return x
deferred = background_job()
deferred.addCallbacks(my_result, my_error_handler)
This Post is Too Long
Anyway. That's all I got. I really want to see this exist. So badly, I might actually do it myself. But it will have to wait a bit.
Addendum: Coroutines and Continuations
Writing good code in most asynchronous systems (including Twisted, node.js, and even E) feels inside-out. Your results are passed in as parameters; they don't come out as return values like they normally would. Same for exceptions. This causes more verbosity, and it just feels weird.
My earlier post The Wormhole describes a transformation that turns things right-side out again. (It's built out of continuations, but it could just as well be done with coroutines, say in Python.) It makes writing correct asynchronous code almost as easy as writing correct synchronous code. However, it can only be done correctly if your promises are of the simple variety. I've since learned that Twisted has attempted this trick. That implementation is useful, but it has several sharp corners. For example, this will not do what you would hope:
background_deferred = None
can_background_job_complete = False
def f():
global background_deferred
background_deferred = background_job()
value = yield background_deferred
returnValue(value + 4)
final_deferred = f()
can_background_job_complete = True
background_job supplies 3, what will this log? In real life:
None, then
7. If these were simple promises, it would log
3, then