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|Article Index
|UNRIC Library Newsletter - March 2007
|New information material
|New titles
|All Pages
|The Partnership between the UN and the EU
The United Nations and the European Commission working together in Development and Humanitarian Cooperation
This first-ever report, entitled "The Partnership between the UN and the EU", outlines in detail what the cooperation between the two organizations achieved 'on the ground' in 2005.
General Assembly 62nd session - preliminary list of items (A/62/50)
English, French & Spanish: http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/62/50
The preliminary list of items (A/62/50) has been issued for the 62nd session of the General Assembly (GA), which will convene at UN Headquarters on Tuesday, 18 September 2007. This document shows 160 provisional agenda items, including, inter alia, the maintenance of international peace and security (items 9-44), the promotion of sustained economic growth and sustainable development (items 45-65), the development of Africa (item 66), the promotion of human rights (items 67-72), disarmament (items 89-107) and drug control (items 108-110).
International Polar Year
The International Polar Year is a large scientific programme focused on the Arctic and the Antarctic from March 2007 to March 2009, organized through the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's speeches
A quick guide to statements on key issues on the UN agenda
Secretary-General comments on Redesign Panel's recommendations (A/61/758)
English, French & Spanish: http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/61/758
The report of the Redesign Panel on the internal system of administration of justice in the United Nations was issued last summer (A/61/205 - http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/61/205). Now the comments of the Secretary-General have been issued (A/61/758). According to the note, the fundamental reasons the UN needs a functioning, well-resourced system of internal justice are: UN staff have no legal recourse to national courts for employment-related grievances; the UN, an organization involved in setting norms and standards and advocating for the rule of law, has a duty to offer staff timely, effective and fair justice; to gain the confidence of both staff and management and thereby promote mutual trust and enhance accountability; and to provide access to all staff, wherever they are located. The document includes organizational charts for the proposed informal and formal systems of UN internal justice. Financial implications of the proposals are outlined in detail.
Secretary-General's Proposals (A/61/749)
English, French & Spanish: http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/61/749
A new letter from the Secretary-General outlines proposed changes to the Department of Peacekeeping Operations and the Department of Disarmament Affairs (A/61/749). The current Department of Peacekeeping Operations would be reconfigured to two departments, a Department of Peace Operations and a Department of Field Support. The proposal for the Department for Disarmament Affairs would establish a new office directly reporting to the Secretary-General. The document includes organization charts for the proposed departments.
United Nations Member States – new website
UN Newsletters, Journals, Bulletins
Would you like to know what newsletters are published by the United Nations system on environment issues, what journals are available on education, what bulletins are available on women & gender issues, which UN peacekeeping mission issues its own newsletter? Then check out the new feature on UNRIC's Library Website at http://archive.unric.org/UNRIC_Library/6.html. Here you can access for the first time a list of journals, newletters and bulletins published by the United Nations system that are available online and can be accessed free of charge. The list is arranged by subject. Most titles are available in English only but other languages – as and when available – are quoted as well.
The Secretariat of the Conference on Disarmament has compiled several subject-specific collections of documents. These collect documents on a topic going back historically.
Peace Operations Year in Review 2006
The 2006 Peace Operations Year in Review has been issued. In addition to facts and figures and current peacekeeping operations, there are detailed chapters about the peace agreements, ceasefires or cessations of hostilities accomplished with UN political and diplomatic support.
Security Council Sanctions Committees Web site
English: http://www.un.org/sc/committees/
French: http://www.un.org/french/sc/committees/
Spanish: http://www.un.org/spanish/sc/committees/index.shtml
A new Web site for Security Council Sanctions Committees has been launched. In addition to providing an overview of Security Council actions regarding sanctions, there are links to specific sanctions committees and some of the affiliated documents, such as travel ban lists, asset freeze lists, and guidelines for certain of the committees.
2007 Meetings and Events of ECOSOC and its Subsidiary Bodies
Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment Survey (UNODC's survey)
Divergent trends characterize opium cultivation in Afghanistan this year, with a pronounced divide between the troubled south of the country and the more stable centre-north.
International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) Annual Report 2006
Report: http://www.incb.org/incb/en/annual_report_2006.html
Press Kit: http://www.incb.org/incb/en/press_releases.html
Report – French: http://www.incb.org/incb/fr/annual_report_2006.html
Press Kit – French: http://www.incb.org/incb/fr/press_releases.html
Report – Spanish: http://www.incb.org/incb/es/annual_report_2006.html
Press Kit – Spanish: http://www.incb.org/incb/es/press_releases.html
State of the World's Forests 2007 (FAO report)
English: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0773e/a0773e00.htm
French: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0773f/a0773f00.htm
Spanish: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0773s/a0773s00.htm
A number of regions of the world are reversing centuries of deforestation and are now showing an increase in forest area, according to the new FAO report. The report, which was launched at the opening of the 18th Session of FAO's Committee on Forestry, underlines the positive effects of economic prosperity and careful forest management in saving forests, noting that over 100 countries have established national forest programmes.
State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2006 (FAO report)
English: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/A0699e/A0699e00.htm
French: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0699f/a0699f00.htm
Spanish: http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0699s/a0699s00.htm
Although the proportion of the world's marine fish stocks rated by FAO as overexploited or depleted has remained stable over the past 15 years, the status of certain highly migratory and high-seas species is cause for serious concern.
United Nations Development Group Web site – new Web site
The UNDG develops policies and procedures that allow member agencies to work together and analyse country issues, plan support strategies, implement support programmes, monitor results and advocate for change. In addition to highlighting the One UN Pilot Projects, the site includes information about Achieving the Millennium Development Goals, Common Country Programming Processes, the Resident Coordinator System, Coordination for Transition, Common Services, Common Premises & UN House, Training & Learning, and UN Country Teams. The archives contain a selection of documents related to the work of UNDG.
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
The world population continues its path towards population ageing and is on track to surpass 9 billion persons by 2050, as revealed by the newly released 2006 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections. The results of the 2006 Revision -- which provide the population basis for the assessment of trends at the global, regional and national levels, and serve as input for calculating many key indicators in the United Nations system -- incorporate the findings of the most recent national population censuses and of the numerous specialized population surveys carried out around the world.
Report of the High-Level Mission to assess the human rights situation in Darfur and the needs of Sudan [Advance Unedited Version]
Special Procedures Bulletin - Third Issue: September-December 2006 (Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights)
Violence Against Women Case Studies (UNFPA report)
A new study by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) shows that community-based interventions aimed at halting violence against women can yield significant results. "Programming to Address Violence Against Women" offers case studies to show how targeted and planned interventions can reduce gender-based violence. The lessons from the case studies are distilled in a companion booklet, "Ending Violence Against Women: Programming for Prevention, Protection and Care", and an online multimedia exhibit integrates the text from both booklets with videos from each of the ten countries, and links to related UNFPA resources.
The Brussels based United Nations Regional Information Centre for Western Europe - UNRIC provides information on UN activities to the countries of the region. It also provides liaison with institutions of the European Union in the field of information. Its outreach activities extend to all segments of society and joint campaigns, projects and events are organized with partners including the EU, governments, the media, NGOs, schools and local authorities.
United Nations Regional Information Centre for Western Europe (UNRIC Brussels)
Residence Palace, Rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 155, Block C2,7th and 8th floor, Brussels 1040, Belgium
Tel.: +32 2 788 8484 / Fax: 32 2 788 8485


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AquaAdvantage, AquaBounty, Atlantic Salmon, brown trout, FDA, fish, GE fish, Genetic engineering, GM Salmon, GMOs, hybrids, Ocean Conservancy, offspring, salmon, trout
It was previously believed that transgene fish couldn't reproduce with their wild counterparts. (Photo: Nick Norman/Getty Images)
It doesn't happen often in nature, but now and then, a wild Atlantic salmon (yes, there are still a few left) mates with a brown trout and has hybrid offspring.
This ability to reproduce between species had some Canadian scientists curious: If a genetically modified Atlantic salmon were to come in contact with a brown trout, would it too be able to have little transgenes babies? The answer is yes, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B. And it turns out that those offspring carry the genetically inserted trait that allows them to grow faster than their Mother-Nature-made cousins. Much faster. In fact, the hybrid offspring outgrew their genetically tweaked parents as well.
"When the fish were placed in a mocked-up stream inside the laboratory, the researchers found that the hybrids were out-competing both the genetically modified salmon and wild salmon, significantly stunting their growth," writes Rebecca Morelle, science reporter for BBC News.
"They're like the super offspring," says George Leonard, director of strategic initiatives, Ocean Conservancy.
The fact that these fast-growing fry even exist and can thrive may contradict the FDA's own environmental assessment report, which says genetically engineered salmon's ability to survive and reproduce in the wild is extremely remote, calling into question the agency's finding of no significant impact.
Ron Stotish, AquaBounty's CEO, responded to the study in a statement, reminding the public that the AquaAdvantage salmon are all female, triploid (which means they are sterile), and will be raised on land-based systems.
But the researcher's paper concludes that, "hybridization of transgenic fishes with closely related species represents potential ecological risks for wild populations and a possible route for introgression of a transgene, however low the likelihood, into a new species in nature."
"There's been a whole debate about whether there would be any potential ecological consequences," says Leonard. "This is a strong smoking gun that there could be. Hybrids occurred. They survived, and what's more troubling, is that they were more competitive than the wild or pure GE fish."
"My question is what does the FDA say now? This paper was not part of the record. Does the FDA conclude that there's still nothing to worry about?" he asks.
FDA spokesperson Siobhan DeLancey says that a decision on the application by AquaBounty for its genetically engineered salmon still has not been made.
"We're considering all the available science, including recently published papers such as this one," she says.
While the new study and FDA's consideration of it may potentially disrupt or delay the GMO salmon's approval, consumer advocacy group Campaign for Genetically Engineered (GE)-Free Seafood continue with plans trying to keep the fish out of supermarkets. Yesterday the group announced that they've now secured a total of 59 retailers who pledge not to sell genetically engineered seafood, adding Target, Giant Eagle, H-E-B, and Meijer to the growing list.
"When it looked like the FDA was going to approve the fish, we took our fight to the public to make sure there wouldn't be a market for the genetically engineered fish if it's approved, or at the very least, that customers could know where they could go to buy GE-free seafood if they want," said Erick Hoffman, food and technology policy campaigner for Friends of the Earth.
Next on their list? Chefs, restaurants and seafood companies.
"This is a long-term effort for us," says Hoffman.
Indeed, but given Ron Stotish's nearly two decade-long effort to get a genetically modified salmon onto your dinner plate, we're wondering just how much longer the fight will be focused on this fish, knowing dozens more are in the works around the globe.
Source: http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/05/30/could-gmo-salmon-reproduce?cmpid=tpfood-eml-2013-06-01-Protest

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What secrets are waiting on the other side? Does evil ever die? Encounter the dark side in 4 Epic Mystery Adventures - Gray Matter, Black Mirror II: Reigning Evil, Alter Ego, and Rockin' Dead - all in one massive collection! What if reality was just an illusion? In Gray Matter, legendary author Jan Jensen tackles questions concerning the nature of reality and the power of the human mind in a massive mystery adventure. Jensen combines the elements of science and the supernatural, together with her acclaimed emphasis on character and story to create an unprecedented paranormal experience that will keep you riveted until the very end. Twelve years ago, an unspeakable darkness was banished from Black Mirror Castle or so they thought! In Black Mirror II: Reigning Evil, a solitary young man is haunted by a series of torturous and ever-intensifying nightmares. Darren's search for his own sanity takes him on a chilling expedition through the reigning evil of the cursed Black Mirror Castle. Will Darren be able to overcome these demons or will he become the curse's next victim? The answers can only be found in the Black Mirror - for once you gaze into it, you won't be able to look away. When evil has more than one face you need more than one perspective. In Alter Ego, after a strange aristocrat dies and his body goes missing, a series of gruesome murders shake a small town. Two unlikely partners, a detective and a petty thief, must work together to solve these terrible crimes. Alternate between these roles to investigate the strange events and gradually reveal all the dark secrets. In Rockin' Dead, you'll meet the Deadly Lullabyes, a group of metal-babe rockers that are ready for just about anything. They've loaded up their van and hit the road after receiving an anonymous invitation to perform at a far off castle. But a hell-bent force is out to stop them from ever getting there. Will the Deadly Lullabyes ever play another gig?
|Viva Media


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Forget the Grand Canyon. There's a new item on the bucket list: mind-blowing sex.
The phenomenal sales of the soft-core erotic fantasy, 50 Shades of Grey, is stripping the covers off a throbbing unrest in the bedrooms of the mature demographic.
First Viagra lengthened and, well, firmed up the sexual life expectancy of the older man; then Google brought free and ubiquitous porn; now e-readers are helping millions of women sidestep the moral panic that porn might induce.
Over 20 million readers in a demographic that skews 30 and older have downloaded 50 Shades of Grey, seduced by the scenes of bondage, dominance and sado-masochistic play encircling the story like a tight lace corset.
Although the book, which had its genesis as Twilight fan fiction, is a literary joke, (there's far better erotica out there), it has struck a chord.
Whatever the reason, for many hooked on the new "mommy-porn," wanting sexual experiences that were once just eyes-closed fantasies is no longer a source of embarrassment.
The book has been credited with everything from mainstreaming BDSM — the acronym for a taboo trifecta of bondage and discipline; dominance and submission; sadism and masochism — to spurring a baby boom.
Women are reading it, passing it on to their partners for reference and adding "more hot sex" to their bucket lists.
But adding "role play" or "try BDSM" to the roster is a little more complicated than "spend more time in the garden" or "finish that novel." For these items, you need a willing partner.
For some couples, a renewed sex life is easy — it's free, and you don't have to climb Everest or jump out of an airplane (unless that's part of the fantasy, of course).
For others, not so much.
Literary fantasy sex can be a standard that husbands who want to be appreciated as more than just a stud service aren't interested in meeting.
When a U.K. housewife whose libido had been revved into overdrive by reading 50 Shades of Grey demanded her husband service her with some x-rated loving, complete with whips and chains, he threw the book at her. Literally.
She filed for divorce.
He was boring in bed, and she wasn't going to put up with it.
London columnist Max Davidson declared a 50 Shades of Grey "war ... with men in the firing line and common sense the first casualty."
There are going to be more than 50 shades of misunderstanding if 20 million women don't know how to bring the revolution into their own bedrooms without alienating their partners. Repairing a flagging sexual relationship can be worthwhile endeavour, but it may require changing the script. For many, it's a scary prospect.
That's where a good therapist comes in.
Vancouver sexuality and relationship therapist Bianca Rucker sees many couples, some who just want to revive a relationship, others in crisis.
Boredom in a long-term relationship can be an opportunity to make a colossal mistake (Rucker says it's not impossible, but it's very difficult to repair a relationship where one partner has already fallen in love with someone else). Or it can be a call for an awakening.
Rucker has seen clients have "dramatic turnarounds," sometimes after just one session, but it's not uncommon to need mediation if you want to blow the lid off a neglected sex life, or steer a reluctant partner into more adventurous territory.
Throwing a book down and demanding your partner act out a role may not be the best way to get started.
"How you talk to your partner about what you want is important. If someone is critical and the other person just feels criticized and gets defensive, it's going to be more difficult."
Even with an experienced counsellor helping you navigate the dialogue, change can be scary — but, like the thrill of taking any risk, that's a good thing.
"If you are going to make changes, it is going to be anxiety-provoking, but that can be worth it."
A common theme Rucker sees in her clinical practice is couples that are too comfortable with each other.
Anyone who's ever been "friend-zoned" by someone they're lusting after knows the frustration long nights of cuddling and TV can bring. Bed-death by friendship is common in marriages and long-term relationships.
"Love and desire don't necessarily go together," said Rucker.
Desire, by its very definition is about wanting something. It's not about having something. Neuroscience has started to uncover a complex system of physiological responses that support the theory that lust thrives in the danger zones and dies under cosy covers.
Sexuality expert and author Esther Perel writes in her bestselling book Mating in Captivity, "Desire is often accompanied by feelings that would seem to cramp love's style. Aggression, jealousy and discord come to mind, for starters."
Cultural pressures that shape domesticated sex, she suggests, may make it fair, safe and equal, but a contract of mutuality also produces bored couples and a high divorce rate. We are driven both by a need for security, and a competing need for excitement.
Perel argues that traditional therapy errs when it uses sexuality as a measure of whether the relationship is working, and Rucker agrees. A couple can have a great relationship, be best friends and have a lousy sex life — and it can be deeply disturbing.
"For some people, coziness is a logical step to being sexual. For others, it's different. You can feel more like a sibling," said Rucker.
The physiological response to being safe, cuddling up on the sofa, or democratically sharing mundane chores isn't going to be a shot of adrenalin and dopamine. It's our job to "introduce risk to safety, mystery to the familiar and novelty to the enduring," Perel writes.No wonder all those 50-Shades-reading moms are fantasizing about a completely different kind of captivity than the kind love and marriage so often bring. Being tied up is more stimulating than being tied down.
Life changes such as aging can be the catalyst for a sexual identity crisis. The bucket list is about decision making and how to live your life as you come to terms with the inevitability of its ending.
"When I feel erotically alive ... I don't worry about death and I don't worry about my age at least for a few moments," confesses one of Perel's married clients who stepped outside of his marriage for an erotic enchantment.
Couples have to find a kind of dynamic safety that can include risk-taking and separateness, even fighting and making up if they want to escape the desexualized trap of "comfort love."
Erotica writer and sex columnist Rachel Kramer Bussel, who has edited 40 anthologies of erotic literature, including Best Bondage Erotica, and Cheeky Spanking Stories, thinks erotica can benefit relationships without wrecking them.
"It can be a safe way to talk about fantasies. You could say, 'I read this really hot story, maybe you should read it ...'"
Among many older women Bussel has talked to, reading 50 Shades of Grey has been an affirmative experience.
"For many of them this is the first piece of erotica reading they've done for their own enjoyment. That alone for some people is a major step. It might lead to seeking sex toys or talking about fantasies."
The BDSM fantasy of being totally controlled that has Anastasia all whipped into a frenzy in 50 Shades of Grey has caused all sorts of consternation among feminist writers worried that this is all about slipping back into some kind of subservience outside of the bedroom.
Perel argues, however, that the very things that cause relationship conflicts outside the bedroom are great in the bedroom: "Power, control, dependency, vulnerability are desirable when expressed through the body and eroticized."
A good fantasy, she theorizes, can state the problem and offer the solution.
You might want democracy in the area of household chores, for example, but discover that enacting a power struggle in the bedroom really gets you going in a good way. (Don't tell me what to do, dear, unless you're going to tie me up and tell me what to do ...)
If the fantasy gets you to the place where you stretch your comfort zones, that's good. But Bussel cautions that if you want the whole master/slave thing à la Anastasia and Grey in 50 Shades of Grey, well, that can be a lot of work for the person who ends up on top. "When you're brought up to be respectful of women, hearing don't hurt them, it can be a real shift being asked to be domineering," said Bussel. "He's powerful and rich and that's also a fantasy."
Somewhere between fantasy and reality is where the ground for change lies, and it's different for every couple.
"The difficulty is that some things sound good, but they're not doable. You're trying for change to get the ball rolling," said Rucker.
If you want change, expect the anxiety and uncertainty that goes with it: that's where the excitement and the possibility of eroticism lies. "If you are too concerned about keeping things safe and smooth then it is never going to change," said Rucker.
But change is hard, it requires a sense of humour, time and, yes, work.
So maybe that's where the whole 50 Shades of Grey thing comes in. You're busy, you're tired, you've got a couple of kids, a job and thousands of nights of cuddling behind you. When you're mating in captivity sometimes you just want someone to throw you a bone. Or a book.


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Ladies and gentlemen, today, I have become the proud aunt of another nephew. In his first photo, he's all little and wrinkly and gorgeous, wearing the onesie I gave him and bearing one of my favourite names. I can't wait to meet him! I began thinking of all the things I would wish for him, all the cliches and the trite sayings I could whisper in his ear. And then I began to question them. And I wondered, what would I really wish for him?
I would wish enough. The same as I wish for myself.
Enough sunshine to keep me sane, not hot and bothered. Enough rain to wash the pollen away and make rainbows. Enough food to keep me healthy. Enough challenges to keep me buzzing, not stressed. Enough time with my loved ones. Enough money in the bank to keep a roof over my head, and food in the fridge, and books on my shelf. Enough travel to keep me in wonder. Enough home time to keep me grounded. Enough friends to keep me connected.
I don't dream big or crazy. And where that used to make me feel like I was lacking, or missing a trick, I now feel content. Because I think my life ticks most of those statements up there.
I have enough. I am enough. And I wish you enough.


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Sign In
Blackjack Strategy
What's the best count system?
August 2005
I started out learning basic high/low and recently heard about red seven count and have been practicing that system lately. But before I get confused from changing systems, can I get some feedback from some experienced counters on what is the most effective count system?I figure it will be easier on my brain if I pick a system and stick with it.
stainless steel rat
August 2005
Red-7 is Arnold Snyder's (the bishop) counting system. It's unbalanced, which eliminates the true-count conversion that confuses many. But it is less powerful than Hi-Lo from a playing efficiency point of view.
There are several stronger counting systems than Hi-Lo, but these level-2/level-3 counting systems are much harder to use, and often require a side-count as well, which totally kills the accuracy of most counters.
Bottom line is to use the best you can use. Hi-Lo is the most popular counting system on the planet. There's a reason for that. It's what I use myself, in fact, from single-deck through shoes. Yes there are better systems for single-deck (better playing efficiency). But I've learned to count with Hi-Lo without worrying about inaccurate counts. And I've not seen any reason to change, as the difference between a basic unbalanced count like KO or red-7 and hi-lo is not that big, nor is the difference between hi-lo and a level-2 or 3 counting system very big. In fact, hi-lo played with 100% accuracy is better than any level-2 counting system if you can't keep an accurate count and make mistakes...
Rather than changing counting systems, get one down pat and then use it...
August 2005
Actually, Red 7 is a tad bit better than H/L...same for betting...better for
For betting, most come in at about 97%. So take your pick and stay
with it. (betting is the main consideration, especially for shoe games)
Level one
Red 7.......97-53-UB
Level two
High Op II.91-67-B-A/SC
Level three
W halves...99-56-B
stainless steel rat
August 2005
the problem I have with those numbers is that I do not believe that an unbalanced level-1 count is going to beat hi-lo in playing efficiency. If you look at Arnold's "Blackbelt in BlackJack" he clearly agrees and says his red-7 count is not as strong as hi-lo, but is easier to use (no TC conversion)...
one easy example is that on 16 vs 10 I know when to hit or stand (index=0) but with an unbalanced count, until I get to some key count (like the pivit for betting) I don't. Unless I do a TC conversion, which the unbalanced counts don't do...
For example, arnold also discusses the "Zen count", and points out that it will add about .1% to your advantage in a shoe game, or about .2% to your advantage in a SD game. This from a level-2 count that is significantly more difficult to use...
I don't know what's up with those PE numbers (I find the same numbers on the q-fit web site). But everyone I know (including Arnold) says that Hi-Lo is better than red-7, yet those numbers suggest red-7 is better...
August 2005
This one may not be the "best", but it is very accurate and consistent :
2,3,4,5,6,7 = +1
8 = 0
9, 10, Ace = -1
August 2005
Surfteg- Let me try this again. I don't know what I did, but the count
system you described is called the "Silver Fox System". I have been
using it for many years now, but I still call it H/L because when I added
the 7 and 9 I didn't know what to call it. The numbers I have on it are
96 and 54. Also, I might add that the numbers on these systems will
vary some depending on who does the testing and what ever other things
that can be applied. At any rate, they are so close that I don't think it
August 2005
How about the UBZ2?
August 2005
Ray...I first "discovered" THAT count in Ed Thorp's Beat The Dealer book almost 18 years ago fwiw...also, for me, it definitely works best in a DD game...
August 2005
Alex, you got me there.....What are the card values?
stainless steel rat
August 2005
that is George C's, "Unbalanced Zen II" system. Don't know the tags offhand...
August 2005
Check out www.qfit.com/cvstrat.htm .There's a list of #'s for a lot of the different systems.
September 2005
I've got Unbalanced Zen @ 96/62...just didn't make the connection. A
sure sign missing neurons.
September 2005
The reason an balanced count with a lower BC and PE might outperform an unbalanced count with better numbers is that the balanced count implements its BC and PE more accurately than the unbalanced count. This is particularly true when it comes to PE (playing efficiency). Unbalanced counts have an error range in implementing their index numbers -- especially at negative counts.
This is a good time to point out that unbalanced counts whose pivot is +4 true have a greater error range than those with a pivot of +2 true. That's why Hi/Lo (97 & 51) outperforms KO (97.5 & 55). Yet KISS III (96 & 55) slightly outperforms KO and falls just a hair shy of Hi/Lo.
September 2005
I use Fred Renzeys' kiss III count and it's been great to me. Learned it in his fantastic book Blackjack Bluebook II
Good luck
September 2005
What are the card values for the KISS III system?
September 2005
KISS III card tags are:
red 2 = 0
blk 2 = +1
3 = +1
4 + +1
5 + +1
6 + +1
7 + +1
8 = 0
9 = 0
10= -1
It's numbers are: BC = 96.3, PE = 55.1. The IRC for a six deck game is "9" and you begin ramping up your bets at "20RC". It comes with a table of 21 index numbers individually activated by the running count.
September 2005
BC & PE- It would seem to me that those systems that are rated
higher did perform better over the long term(sims). Now, it may be
true that H/L will perform better for any given session due to better
accuracy on a given night. I would think that single or DD would be
the best opportunity for that to happen.
Is it related to the number of variations? KISS has 22 vs H/L 40-50.
Can you have a better BC and win less money under the same playing
conditions? I can see that happening in the short term, but how is it
possible in the long term?
If KISS scores 55 on its 22 variations and H/L scores 51 on its 50, that
would explain the difference in $$$$$$$ due to the greater number
of variations.
September 2005
Ray -- The way I see it is that balanced counts do in fact implement their index numbers with greater accuracy than unbalanced counts due to the true count conversion. Unbalanced counts merely use one "compromise" index number that is accurate at some penetration point, but inaccurate elsewhere.
Now any count system's theoretical PE is arrived at by computing its card tags in conjunction with a straightforward PE equation. But that equation doesn't know that there will be error in implementing that PE with an unbalanced count. I believe that's why I've seen that balanced and unbalanced counts with identical BC's and PE's have different long term sim performances -- with the balanced count usually outperforming the unbalanced count by about 0.05% in net EV (i.e. +.70% vs. +.75%)
September 2005
Fred-Thanks for the reply and I do see your points. I think you touched
on this a little in the KISS presentation (16 vs 10 and counts above 25).
What I think I get from this experience is that count systems are measured on how well they perform their design and not some standard.
We can't say that Red 7 at 97/53 is a tad better than H/L at 97/51.
September 2005
Why don't I ever hear mention of High Opt I or II? Is this system considered inferior in some way?
September 2005
Why not Hi Opt? It's a matter of very limited application. This system
has a very high PE and is best applied in single deck games. Also, the
BC is somewhat lower than most and is not recommended for shoe
games. The numbers I have are 91/67.
September 2005
I took a look at
. It rates Hi-Lo at an ease of 6 (with lower number meaning harder), and a BC/PE/IC of .97/.51/.76.
However, it rates KO as easier with a 7.5, and a BC/PE/IC of .98/.55/.78, beating Hi-Lo in every category and in ease of use.
Can I trust this? Why would anyone use Hi-Lo then over KO?
stainless steel rat
September 2005
Because the numbers are sometimes misleading. Hi-Lo is most certainly better than KO in most anything you can compare, excepting ease of use (KO has no true count conversion). In shoe games, the difference is very minor. In SD/DD games, I'd take Hi-Lo any day...
September 2005
> Hi-Lo is most certainly better than KO in most anything you can compare
Well, except playing efficiency, betting efficiency, and insurance. You don't have me convinced. Everytime anyone asks about certain systems over others, the response is always to look at these numbers. You seem really knowledgeable, but can you give me something more than just "trust me"? How can the numbers be misleading? I guess I don't really understand where these numbers come from really.
Also, is KO or Hi-Low (or any other system) better than the other in terms of risk? I assume some systems have a greater or lesser risk reward?
Thanks for your help! I've just learned a bit Hi Opt I, but before I study anything too in depth I started looking at the board and noticed no one is using it so I'm trying to find a good replacement.
September 2005
You will notice that unbalanced count systems have a limited number of
index numbers. The reason for this is the accuracy of some quanity of
additional numbers is not trust worthy. As you move away from the pivot
point the accuracy tends to be less than what one would like.
When you include a limited number of index numbers that are close to the
pivot point, the math is more likely to give a better overall reading as
compared to H/L which has approx 2.5 times the number of index no's.
This is the reason that H/L will out perform unbalanced counts in single
or double deck. There are ways to overcome this "drift in accuracy", but
why bother if you play shoe games where the very best balanced counts
with an excellent PE gives very little additional advantage.
If you play shoe games, KISS, KO or Red 7 will do the job about as well
as most level one count systems.
If you play single and DD, which would you rather have an unbalanced
sys with 20 variations or a balanced system with 80 variations?
September 2005
Whoa. That went right over my head. I think you are assuming a lot of knowledge on my part that I don't have.
My basic question is how one system can be better than the other when PE/BE/and IC are all worse. Maybe you answered it right on and I just need to learn a lot more before I can understand the answer to my question?
My other question, though, that I don't think you addressed, is if there is a difference between the systems in risk percentage.
stainless steel rat
September 2005
Here's two examples, using Hi-Lo and KO. Both assume typical rules and penetration, and a starting bankroll of $3000. CVCX then calculates the optimal "unit" based on the "spread" I supplied (1-4 for SD, 1-20 for 6D).
SD game, bet spread $10-$40, Hi-Lo hourly win rate is $47.68, RoR is 12.5%. KO Preferred is $42.74 per hour, Ror is 14.7%.
6D game, bet spread $5-$100, Hi-Lo hourly win rate is $21.78, RoR is 16%. KO preferred is $19.21 per hour, RoR is 16.5%
If you compare, Hi-Lo has a better hourly win rate, and a lower RoR in both cases. The difference is not huge, but even at $2 per hour for 6D and $5 per hour for SD, the difference is significant. Note that in both cases, Hi-Lo also has a lower RoR. Assuming the same bankroll and bet spread for the comparisons.
There you have it. These are from CVCX, 2 _billion_ rounds simulated for each, so the numbers are going to be quite accurate. This shows that the stuff showing KO is has a better PE than Hi-Lo is simply flawed in some basic way, because in the real world, a balanced count is superior in all regards except for ease of use.
I can provide more sim data if needed...
The bottom line is buy CVCX, for under $100, and you can answer these questions to 3 decimel places, whenever you have one. How PE, BC, IC are calculated is hard to say based on some of the numbers published. But what counts is how the systems perform under _equal_ comparisons. The above gives that...
September 2005
Now money I understand. Thanks.
You don't want to run Hi-Opt I through the ringer for me just to satisfy my curiosities do you? :)
stainless steel rat
September 2005
Sure. This is for the same games as before, same bank, same bet spreads. Also this assumes the ace side-count which makes hi opt I much more difficult to play accurately...
SD, hourly win rate is $46.97, with a RoR of 11.6%. Note that Hi-Opt is good enough that even though the spread is 1-4, the dollar spread is $15-$60, but produces a similar RoR.
6D, hourly win rate is $20.12 for a spread of $5-$100, RoR is 14%.
Bottom line? HiOpt crushes a SD game. But for 6d it just tires out the old noggin' for no additional gain except for a headache...
September 2005
Muchas gracias. My last thought, though -- a 1-20 spread is almost definitely going to be picked up by the casinos, correct?
stainless steel rat
September 2005
Depends. at $5 to $100, in vegas, no. That's chump change since your average bet is going to be maybe $10. At black-chip level, it will be noticed. But if you are going to "play all" then you either spread or lose. Otherwise, you are left with back-counting and wonging in when the count rises. At crowded games, this doesn't work, of course. So it depends on when you play. At nearly empty games, you might stand out while back-counting, so there are risks all around.
If you learn to vary your bets based on something that looks like a losing progression... or something similar, then you can stay under the radar. Or you can vary your spread and accept a lower hourly win rate. For example, in a 6D shoe, using Hi-Lo, here is what you can expect:
spread win rate
1-4 5.25 (flip burgers instead)
1-8 11.81
1-12 16.67
1-16 20.03
1-20 21.74
Note that in the spreads, there are multiple ways to increase your bet according to the count, some are more aggressive and increase your win rate and variance, others reduce your win rate and variance (and hence RoR).
You can use a smaller spread with a larger betting unit size, but that increases your bankroll requirement significantly to avoid an impossible RoR.
September 2005
Thanks for the info. You are one knowledgeable rat.
Will casinos really not care at al lif I am only betting the $5 to $100 spread? I got the impression that if they see any counting at all they will chuck you out no matter what.
Also, don't forget the fun of playing. I'd rather play blackjack for $5.25 an hour than flip burgers.
September 2005
Funckychicken-Sorry about that. Try this on for size: We are playing a
single deck game with H/L and an unbalanced count. The unbalanced
count has a PE of 55 and H/L is 51.
The less decks you play, the more
important is card removal in how you play your hands.
The unbalanced
system has 20 variations that are better than basic strategy and most
of these are very close to the pivot point and accurate. H/L has the
same 20 variations plus 30 more.
The unbalanced count is measured on those 20 variations and so is H/L,
along with 30 others. H/L has a greater number of variations that are
better than basic strategy and that is where the performance difference
The net of all this is, if H/L and the unbalanced count were both measured
on the first 20 variations, H/L would have the higher PE. We know this
must be so because there will still be some accuracy drift in the UB count
and none in H/L.
stainless steel rat
September 2005
Thanks, but I am not a "particularly knowledgable rat".
Our edge in AP blackjack is _soooo_ thin, you really have to be careful or you can be playing right into the house's pockets. It doesn't take much to whittle that 1% advantage down to zero or worse. And if you don't realize that has happened, and you sit down at such a game, you end up stuck.
I don't try to memorize every game option (DA2, D910, D10, etc) as to how it affects my "edge" as I just 'look 'em up" on my handy laptop. I don't try to guess the best betting ramp for a particular game, I look it up with CVCX after I've finished my scouting trips and taken notes about the different 21 offerings available...
Most people would not think about saving 1/2% on a grocery purchase because it might be too much trouble. But in 21, that 1/2% might be the difference between winning and losing for that particular game. So every .01% adds up... don't forget to add 'em up. :)
September 2005
Well, you're the smartest rat I ever met (and I used to work in a lab, so I knew a lot of rats).
Now that you've sold me on Hi-Lo, what's the best book that explains it? Professional Blackjack? I've read "The World's Best Blackjack Book" already, so I think I'm set with basic strategy and the likes.
stainless steel rat
September 2005
You have two choices.
1. Pro BJ is "the Hi-Lo bible" obviously. You can't go wrong.
2. Mike Shackleford has a "blackjack school" that is free. A series of something like 24 lessons you grab off the web, and they take you from basic strategy, to counting drills for Hi-Lo, to basic strategy departure (index) plays, and also covers bankroll, betting ramp, how different rules affect the house edge, and so forth.
You can find links to
all over the place or you can search for "blackjack school online" and print the whole thing out free...
All you need then is something like CVBJ to drill you until you can count, do the TC conversion and bet/play properly without having to think about it. Then CVCX (I bought 'em as a "package" which is somewhat cheaper than buying each one separately, to really let you zero in on how rules and penetration and bet ramp are all inter-related... not to mention bankroll and RoR...
September 2005
or you can develop/check your own counting/betting system with BJ777 simulator
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COVINA, California — A survivor of a horrific shooting at a Christmas Eve party in the U.S. frantically begged an emergency dispatcher for help as she hid in a neighbor's house, her daughter wailing in the background with a gunshot wound to the face, according to a 911 tape released by police Friday.
"He's still shooting out there," the woman sobbed, describing how her ex-brother-in-law was armed and dressed in a Santa suit. "He's shooting my whole family! My mom's house is on fire!"
The tape was released two days after Bruce Jeffrey Pardo, armed with four guns and a fuel-spraying device, killed nine people at his ex-wife's parents' home during a holiday party in Covina. He later killed himself at his brother's home, police said.
The caller was at the party but escaped to a nearby home after Pardo barged in and opened fire. She told the dispatcher her name was Leticia, but her last name could not be heard through her sobs on the noisy 11-minute tape.
"I have a feeling I know who it is," she said, and identified the shooter as her former brother-in-law. "They're going through a divorce right now."
'Everyone started panicking'
She told the dispatcher that Pardo came to the door dressed in a Santa Claus suit, started shooting and "everyone started panicking and running," diving under the dining room table to hide.
Asked who was at the party, the woman said there were at least 25 people in the house. She listed her husband and two daughters, nephews, nieces and a girlfriend — "that's half my family!" she cried.
The woman and the neighbors saw the shooter "knocking out the lights on the street" and told the dispatcher that he had changed out of the Santa suit.
"We can't allow him to come into this house. We've got to lock all the doors!" she said.
Her daughter had been shot in the side of the face and was bleeding. When the girl started to whimper and wail in pain, the woman comforted her: "It's OK, mami."
The devastation and panic she was feeling was evident in her voice.
"I can't believe that he did this to my family. I just have this feeling in my stomach," she moaned, breaking down. "I'm trying to keep it together here."
© 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


text:
Does the word 'disability' conjure up an image in your mind?
For me, it's the image of John.
His disability benefits have been a lifeline to John and his family.
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This is what Social Security does —provides some measure of protection for workers and their families from the loss of income because of disability. Our agency touches the lives of nearly every American, often during times of personal hardship, transition, and uncertainty. But there are misconceptions about how it works.
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We want to tell you the story of Larry, who lives with congenital heart failure. He is able to work only part-time and hopes to one day get better and work full time. You can also meet Kira, a remarkable young woman who says that without Social Security benefits, she wouldn't be able to support herself and be independent.
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You will find more stories on our Faces and Facts of Disability website. We invite you to come see the faces and learn the facts.


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"What good does it do a man to have the vote if he has only one person that he can vote for?"
"All political power is inherent in the people and all free governments are founded on their authority, and instituted for their benefit. The faith of the people of Texas stands pledged to the preservation of a republican form of government, and, subject to this limitation only, they have at all times the inalienable right to alter, reform or abolish their government in such manner as they may think expedient."
Article III, Section 2 of the Constitution of the State of Texas
In 2011, the next Texas legislative session will tackle the subject of redistricting for the first time since Tom Delay and his partners in political crime forced the people of Texas to live with our incredibly gerrymandered map. Its purpose was to benefit the Texas Republican Party, harm the Texas Democratic Party and, as much as possible, remove the niggling little possibility that Texas voters might actually have the power to affect or influence the results of major elections here. Even the Democratic districts that were left were pretty much safe seats. Delay, Dick Armey and the rest of their merry little band of Machiavellis stuck their grubby little fingers into the mix and, like gods manipulating their computer game minions, succeeded in putting every voter in Texas into "political reservations". No longer would the simple voter be allowed to mess up control of our state by dominant political machines. In short, what we have in Texas is Party-controlled government. In practical terms, the state of Texas and the two major Parties (preferably the Republican Party) would be (and are) the same thing.
Now, don't get me wrong. I am not saying that political machines haven't always been in charge of Texas (anyone remember Archer or George Parr, "The Duke of Duval County"?). It is simply that before the 1990s, they weren't as obvious, and they didn't really care about national influence. It was corruption by Texans, of Texans, for Texans. Any influence that could shovel federal money to us courtesy of our Congressional leaders like John Nance Garner, Sam Rayburn, LBJ, Jim Wright and all of the rest was still corruption by, of and for Texans. There was no intention or desire to tear the rest of the nation down or rip it apart as it seems like is happening now. The thing is, for corruption to flourish, the politicians must be able to promise that they will continue to hold power and maintain the corrupt systems. That is what we have now; entrenched Party corruption. This is why I believe that, regardless of the economic crisis, the healthcare crisis, the ethical crisis, the war crisis, and every other of the many crises faced by Americans, as a whole, and Texans specifically, the single most important issue for Texas voters in 2010 is: "What the Hell will our political districts look like now?"
I love Texas. I really do. It is the land of my birth and, no matter how many times I leave it, it's the land I always return to. Unfortunately, Texas politics often embarrass me. I am not alone in this. There is an old saying here that goes: "Lock up your house and barn; watch your wife and children. The Texas Legislature is in session and nothing is safe." There are too many things in Texas politics about which to be embarrassed (if not to laugh out loud about in their ridiculousness), too many to list, or even count. Our state constitution, itself, is probably the main one; a document so badly written that the only thing which keeps it from being the single worst one in The United States is the fact that Alabama's state constitution might actually be the worst one on the entire planet. It is easily the worst one in The United States (http://blavier.newsvine.com/_news/2009/04/06/2646073-we-must-amend-the-constitution-now-), but having the 50th worst constitution out of 51 contenders is nothing to be proud of. A close second to the embarrassment which is the Texas Constitution is arguably our propensity to re-elect incumbents to pretty much any office that they run for.
Texas is a land whose people pride themselves for their fiercely independent spirit. Texas is also a state which avows its hatred of the very idea of a professional political class so much that the annual "salaries" for all legislative offices (including that of the Lt. Governor) is only $7,200 (http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/leg/features/0205_01/compensation.html, http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/TT/mkt2.html). Keep in mind that it wasn't until 1975 that Texas voters voted to raise those salaries from $4,800 up to $7,200… an increase of 50% (it was also at this time when members of our legislature were given a per diem AND could get mileage reimbursement at the same rate that state employees do). Texas government was designed to discourage the rise of a professional political class. Of course, in reality, it also keeps people without other sources of income (i.e. – the poor and the lower middle class) from being practically able to hold such offices. Thus, our fondness for keeping people in elected office is not only an embarrassment, it is rank hypocrisy on a statewide level. Now, I have so far basically said that we here in Texas have a "tendency" to re-elect the same people into government offices time and time again but, at this point, it is merely undocumented hyperbole. Fair enough. Go to the restroom, get yourself a nice beverage and make yourself comfortable because this is going to take awhile. Ready? Good.
(NOTE: If you are not interested in reading through the statistical information I have compiled, please feel free to skip the paragraphs between the two lines below and the two lines after the statistical paragraphs. The information in those paragraphs is included in this article (1) for those who, like me, find such information interesting, and (2) to cut off the need for comments such as "how do you know", "what are you basing you opinions on", and "prove it". Thank you for your understanding on this.)
To start with, here are some statistics about state level elections in Texas from the 2008 General Election:
The Executive and Judicial offices up for election that year were Railroad Commissioner, three places on the Texas Supreme Court (and yes, we actually elect our Supreme Count members which, of course, makes them political creatures who need to raise election funds instead of allowing them to neutral arbiters of the law) and two places on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals (in fact, we elect ALL of our judges here). All seven of them were retained by the incumbents. For those of you who want to keep track, that is seven for seven, so far, or 100%.
For the Texas Congressional delegation, we had one U.S. Senatorial and thirty-two U.S. House seats up for grabs. It shouldn't surprise you to know that for those seats, all thirty-three incumbents ran for re-election. Want to know how many of them won re-election? Thirty-two of them were sent back to Washington. One of the incumbent Representatives (a Democrat in his first term, if you want to know) was voted out. The score now is thirty-nine out of forty, which comes out to 97.5%.
In the Texas legislature, there were fifteen seats in the Texas Senate and all one hundred and fifty seats in the Texas House up for election. For the Senate seats, all fifteen incumbents ran. Five were re-elected and one was defeated. If you wonder about the other nine seats, don't worry. For those seats, the incumbents were completely unopposed and, under Texas law, didn't even need to show up to the actual elections because they are automatically declared the victors (Texas does not have a "none of the above" option for our ballots). Score, fifty-three out of fifty-five now, giving us an incumbent ratio of 96.4%.
For the Texas House seats, one hundred and forty-tw0 out of one hundred and fifty incumbents ran for re-election. After the primary results were in, nine incumbents had been defeated for nomination by their party. Five more were voted out of office in the General Election. One hundred and twenty-eight incumbents were then returned to the Texas House and, out of those one hundred and twenty-eight, seventy-four of those "won" their elections without facing any challenges by their major opposition party, which means that 49.3% of the total seats in the Texas House were filed by people who simply walked into the House unobstructed. This makes our incumbent win record one hundred and eighty-one out of a possible one hundred and ninety-seven (91.9%). With all of these Texas races, out of two-hundred and five elections, one hundred and eighty-one continued to be held by the person who held them before the election, which is a total ratio of 88.3%. (http://www.bipac.net/page.asp?content=texas_elections&g=TEXAS)
Now, let's take a look at our candidate line-ups for the 2010 election cycle, shall we? Before we even start, I want to point out that, out of 219 races I have analyzed, only two, yes TWO, will have primary contests from all three parties (Democratic, Libertarian and Republican). Only 0.9% of the highest offices in Texas will have the nominees for each race selected from more than one contender in each party. Those two races are for the nominees of each party for Governor and for District 5 on the State Board of Education. Really! Take a moment to think about that. Out of all of the state's Executive, Judicial and Legislative offices, only one will have three nominees who will actually be determined by the people. (NOTE: For the sake of accuracy, I want to point out that the Texas Libertarian Party selects its nominees by convention but, for simplicity's sake, I will use the term primary through this article to indicate the need of any party to select its nominees from a slate of several contenders.)
The Texas Executive offices up for grabs this year are those of Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner and Railroad Commissioner. Now, not only is the race for Governor the only Executive office in which there will be three nominees chosen by primary elections, the incumbent in the office of Comptroller (the State's only financial officer after our elimination of the office of State Treasurer) is only going to be challenged because a Libertarian (our own Mary Ruwart) has filed to challenge the incumbent. The Democratic Party is not running ANYONE for the office. This means that if it wasn't for the Libertarian Party, the person who is responsible for all financial duties for the entire state of Texas would be the guy who turned in his notarized form; that would have been all it would have taken.
On the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, two of the incumbents are also only being challenged by Libertarians. For the eight seats on the Texas Board of Education, only three of the races have candidates from all three parties. Three of seats only have the incumbent party challenged by Libertarians, although the incumbents in all three of those seats do face primary challenges from within their own Party. The District 4 seat is only being sought by the incumbent… no challenges by either the Democratic or Libertarian Parties and no primary challenge, so he gets to simply walk in.
Neither of our two US Senate seats is up for election this year and, out of out thirty-two seats in the US House, all of the incumbents (20 Republicans and 12 Democrats) are seeking re-election. Of those thirty-two races, only the Republican and Libertarian Parties have candidates for all thirty-two. The Democratic Party only has candidates in twenty-four of those races (which means that one out of every four of these races, the Democratic Party isn't even showing up for), and in one race, the Constitution Party also has one candidate running.
Of the thirty-two Congressional races, only twelve of the incumbents will face primary challenges from their own party (38%), nine Republicans out of twenty (45%) and three Democrats out of twelve (25%). Of the combined thirty-two races, the only challenges to seven of the Incumbents or the Incumbent's Party are from Libertarians (22%), and one is from the Libertarians and the single Constitution Party candidate (03%), for a combined eight of the thirty-two seats… again, one out of every four. For all of the Parties, there are eleven Republican Party primaries (34%), five Democratic Party primaries (16%) and twenty Libertarian Party primaries (63%). Thus, out of a total of ninety-six possible primaries, there are thirty-six (38%) and, if you only count the sixty-four possible primaries for the Republican and Democratic Parties, there are only sixteen…which is, yet again, only one out of four. Out of THESE, there are only two races which will have primary challenges for all three parties (2.1%).
For the Texas State Senate, out of sixteen races, fifteen incumbents are seeking re-election (eleven Republicans and four Democrats). Of the sixteen races, the Republican Party has at least one candidate in all of the races, while the Democratic Party is only competing in eight of them, which (for those of us who can count) is only one out of two (50%). The Libertarian Party has candidates in nine of the races for a 56% presence. Of the incumbents running for re-election, only six out of fifteen (40%) face Primary challenges in their own party; four Republicans out of eleven (36%) and one Democrat out of four (25%… again).
In none of these races is there more than one candidate from any of three Parties facing a primary election… which is exactly 00%. In only one of the races (06%) are there two parties which will have primary contests. Out of a total of forty-eight possible primary contests there are only eleven (23%). This means that of sixteen possible primaries for each Party, the Republican Party has six (38%), the Democratic Party has two (13%) and the Libertarian Party has three (19%). For the General Election, only two of the races (13%) will have candidates from all three Parties, six (38%) will have only Republican and Democratic candidates, seven (42%) will have only one of the two major Parties (Republican or Democrat) running against a Libertarian candidate, and one (06%) will have a completely uncontested incumbent.
Finally we get to the Texas State House of Representatives with its one hundred and fifty seats at stake. 94% of the incumbents (one hundred and forty-one out of one hundred and fifty) are running for re-election. There are seventy Republicans and seventy-one Democratic incumbents running, which means that only nine of the seats are guaranteed to have a new person in them. The Republican Party is fielding candidates in one hundred and twelve of the races (75%), the Democratic Party is running in ninety-three of the races (62%) and Libertarians are contesting sixty-four of the races (43%).
Out of the one hundred and forty-one incumbents running, only twenty-three (16%) face primary races…sixteen Republicans (23% of seventy) and seven Democrats (10% out of seventy-one). Of the potential four hundred and fifty possible primary elections, there are only fifty-nine (13%), which is thirty-nine Republican primaries (26% of one hundred and fifty), ten Democratic primaries (07% of one hundred and fifty) and ten Libertarian primaries (again, 07% out of one hundred and fifty).
From all of the one hundred and fifty races, only twenty-seven (18%) have at least one candidate from all three parties. Twenty-nine of the races (19%) have only candidates from both the Republican and the Democratic Parties. Thirty-seven of the races (25%) only have one or more candidate from the Libertarian Party opposing one of the two major Parties. Of the one hundred and forty incumbents running, forty-six of them (33%) of them are completely unopposed (twenty-one Republicans out of seventy for a 30% ratio and twenty-five Democrats out of seventy-one for a 35% ratio). Out of the one hundred and forty-one incumbents running, eleven of the races have the incumbent's party unopposed by candidates from either of the other two parties 08%). This includes six Republican contests out of seventy (09%) and five Democratic races out of seventy-one (07%).
Now, can you figure out what is the most horrifying statistic which can be made from the above paragraph? I'll give you a couple of minutes to re-read it. {da da da da da dum} Have you figured it out yet? If it wasn't for the Libertarian party, ninety-four out of the one hundred and fifty races for seats in the Texas House (63%) would have either the Incumbent or the Incumbent's Party with no, let me repeat that, with NO opposition. Out of all of the two-hundred and nineteen total races in 2010 that I have broken down, that comes to one hundred and fifteen races (53%) in which there is only a challenge to an incumbent or an incumbent's Party because of candidates from the Libertarian Party. Do you, like me, think that percentage is WAY too high?
So, why have I written almost 2,000 words in eighteen paragraphs taking up most of three pages to numb you with statistics that barely a handful of people would even think about? Why have I spent most of my waking hours over two full days making myself blind(er) and giving myself a migraine to have these statistics to write about? It is very simple. Political districts in Texas are so frighteningly gerrymandered (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering , http://www.thefreedictionary.com/gerrymander) that almost every seat for every state office in Texas (by which I mean, every elected office which has a specific political district that is smaller than the entire state… US House, Texas Senate and Texas House) is basically considered a safe seat for either a particular candidate or a particular political Party (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_seat) . They are considered so safe that few of them are challenged for and MANY fewer of them still are lost. That should be unacceptable to any person who believes in a democratic form of government.
Both the Republican and the Democratic Parties (especially the Republican Party over the last decade) have worked and legislated to not only make it infinitely easier to stay in office than it would be in a system in which voters have the true power over our government, they make it almost impossible for any new parties to challenge their political hegemony. Even if the two major parties hate each other, it is still in the best interest of both of them to keep the playground closed to other kids, as it were.
The Texas state Constitution makes these requirements for legislative districts (Article III, sections 25 and 26):
(25) "The State shall be divided into senatorial districts of contiguous territory according to the number of qualified electors, as nearly as may be, and each district shall be entitled to elect one senator, and no single county shall be entitled to more than one senator."
(26) "The members of the House of Representatives shall be apportioned among the several counties, according to the number of population in each, as nearly as may be, on a ratio obtained by dividing the population of the State, as ascertained by the most recent United States census, by the number of members of which the house is composed; provided, that, whenever a single county has sufficient population to be entitled to a representative, such county shall be formed into a separate representative district, and when two or more counties are required to make up the ration of representation such counties shall be contiguous to each other; and when any one county has more than sufficient population to be entitled to one or more representatives, such representative or representatives shall be apportioned to such county, and for any surplus of population it may be joined in a representative district with any other contiguous county or counties."
Now, take a look at (1) the current c0ngressional districting map for Texas (http://congdistdata.tamu.edu/USCongressionalDistricts.pdf), (2) The current Texas Senate districting map (http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/leg/features/0400_04/plans01188.html), and (3) the current Texas House districting map (http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/leg/features/0400_02/planh01369.html). You tell me whether or not you think that these districts are gerrymandered or if they meet the requirements of the Texas Constitution.*
[*By the way, when I was doing my Google searches for the Texas state government district maps, two of the results that popped up were "Dante's Inferno – Circle 8 – Subcircles 1-6 – Cantos 18-23" and "Dante's Purgatorio – Terrace 5: Avarice And Prodigality". Do any of my readers find that as unbelievably funny as I do? Just curious.]
To have a functioning democracy, it isn't enough to have the right to vote. We must also have both a selection of candidates from which to chose AND the power to determine who WE want in office rather than who the Parties want. Right now, for all practical purposes to be a candidate for any of the offices which I have covered, you must have all of your paperwork in the hands of the Texas Secretary of State on the first business day of January. This allows candidates to be listed on the ballots in time for the state primary elections. Parties like the Libertarian Party have to use conventions to determine their nominees which use a slightly different schedule than the primary schedule, but the filing deadline is the same.
So, what is it about our elections, as described by me up to this point, which rob voters of power over our elections? First, there is no opportunity for citizens to see which races do not have any competition and then work to raise more candidates. This means that even the two major Parties are stuck with whoever met the filing deadline. Second, while minor Parties (Libertarian, Green, etc.) have to use a convention method to choose their candidates, those candidates STILL have to have their paperwork filed by the January filing deadline. This means that the convention delegates can ONLY "choose" candidates who met the filing deadline. They have no opportunity to control the process and, except in elections when they have more than one member of their party to choose from, are stuck with whoever had their paperwork in on time. There are processes to declare a write-in candidacy or to get on the ballot as an unaffiliated / Independent candidate, but are not practical means in the state of Texas to give the voters more choices or options besides those who handed in a notarized form by the first business day after New Year's.
To truly be in control of who represents them in their governments, the process has to be designed to remove the power of the Parties over the process. We need districts which are completely non-partisan and politically neutral. We need to make it easier for more candidates to get on the ballots. We need enough candidates running for every office that all of the Parties will need to actively campaign to win their Party's nomination in the primaries and conventions before they campaign for the actual office. We need to examine different methods of voting which put control of the outcomes in the hands of the electorate. (http://blavier.newsvine.com/_news/2009/04/21/2714028-the-laboratory-of-democracy-alternative-voting-methods-approval-voting-re-edited) We need to reduce the costs of filing for office by independents and others who do not have the backing of a Party which has ballot access, and of running a campaign for office. We also need to remove the bureaucratic barriers which make it difficult to even be on the ballot.
The thing is, if we were to solve all of the issues which I have raised, we will end up with better people in office. While many people complain about the lengths and costs of campaigns by candidates for the office of President, there is one good benefit of the process, which is that it hones a candidate's skills and message, AND gives the press time to learn more about the candidates than the candidates might want us to know. Winning an election to become the President of The United States does not make a candidate a victor, it makes them a survivor. The other main benefit to the voters making changes to our election process is that we will end up with officeholders with a wide range of beliefs, skills, and knowledge. Diversity is not found in the color of someone's skin, their gender or their sexual orientation; it is found when you have people with differing beliefs working together to create our laws and operate our governments. Homogeneity of ideas is the worst enemy of true diversity.
As much as people of any particular ideology might think that having people holding the same ideological beliefs as they do in every office would create a perfect government, they are wrong. Good decisions are not made when everyone agrees; they are made when people with differing beliefs can work together and challenge each other to make the best decisions. (http://blavier.newsvine.com/_news/2009/06/11/2918292-groupthink-as-a-political-mental-illness-part-i, http://blavier.newsvine.com/_news/2009/06/15/2933680-groupthink-as-a-political-mental-illness-part-ii) I recently ran across a blog, called 'Divided We Stand, United We Fall', which has apparently been around since 2007. It has some very good stuff in it but I want to point my readers to a particular article on that site (http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2007/07/curing-libertarian-political-impotence.html).
This is why I say that the SINGLE most important issue for the Libertarians in the 2010 election is the redistricting which will be done by Texas (and the other states) in 2011. Unless we can literally change the political map next year, we will simply spend another decade as a fringe party which has no REAL impact on our laws or on the operation of our government. This is the case that the Libertarian Party needs to be making to the citizens of Texas, as well as to voters all across The United States. We need to make sure that the voters in every district know that, while they have no power to determine who gets elected by voters in other districts, they can still have an impact by choosing to send Libertarians, in those districts which have Libertarian candidates, or people of differing ideologies that the current prevailing ones as their representatives in Austin and in all of the other state capitals. NONE of many problems can be fixed if we don't have the best people in office to work on them. If we cannot make them understand the importance of redistricting as a way for THEM to have more power over those in political office, then we will fail them. Voters may get the "government that they deserve" but, if we can't give them real choices about who they can vote into office, they will never have to opportunity to deserve a better government.
For more information, please see http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/6_printable.html.
Rhys M. Blavier
Romayor, Texas
"Truth, Justice and Honor… but, above all, Honor"
© Copyright 2010 by Rhys M. Blavier
Thank you for reading this article. Please read my other articles and let me know what you think. I am writing them not to preach or to hear myself think but to try to create dialogs, debates and discussions on the nature of our government and how we can build upon and improve it based on what we have seen and learned over the course of the 225 years of The American Experiment.


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Today's post sent in by Mars Express Spacecraft Operations Engineer Simon Wood, at ESOC. The news? Ten observations slots in the next four weeks, starting today!
You may have noticed that VMC has been very quiet over the last few months.
This was due to Mars Express experiencing one of its regular 'eclipse seasons'. As our orbit precesses around Mars, there are periods during the year during which, for part of the orbit, Mars is between the spacecraft and the Sun. These eclipses can last for up to 40 minutes per orbit with the result that, during this part of the orbit, no power is generated by the solar arrays. This means that your spacecraft is running on battery power only.
This most-recent eclipse season also coincided with aphelion, the point at which we are at our greatest distance from the Sun. This is more pronounced for spacecraft orbiting Mars than for those orbiting Earth, as Mars' orbit is more elliptical than Earth's.
Being further from the Sun also means the total solar energy reaching the spacecraft is lower -- meaning the total output power of the solar arrays is reduced. The energy from the Sun doesn't only generate electrical power; as it strikes the body of the spacecraft, it also heats it up.
We have strict temperature requirements for our internal systems and payloads to keep them operating normally; this thermal control is managed by a number of electrical heaters and radiators placed around the the spacecraft. As the overall heat being provided from the Sun is reduced in an eclipse, then the electrical heaters have to work harder and thus draw more power to maintain the required temperature.
The end result of all this is that we have a situation where we have long periods using only the batteries combined with higher power usage by the heaters but less overall power being generated by the solar arrays to recharge the system.
This poses some difficult planning challenges as we have to take steps to reduce overall power consumption and carefully manage the spacecraft subsystems to ensure that we can fully recharge the batteries by the end of each orbit.
In this last season, this has meant doing things like reducing the amount of time the transmitter is on (as this consumes a lot of power) and this has had a knock-on effect on science operations as it means that the overall data volume we can transmit back to Earth is reduced.
The other thing we do is try to lower the workload on the thermal control system and reduce the power needed by the heaters. This is done by a special spacecraft pointing we call 'Warm-up'. Here, whenever the spacecraft is not pointing the instruments at Mars or the antenna at Earth (these are fixed to different faces of your spacecraft – Ed.), we point the base of the spacecraft directly at the Sun – the idea being that this will ensure that all the solar heat will go into the key fuel lines and the avionics mounted there and so the heaters that support them will have to work less to maintain their temperature.
We estimate this saves us 15-20W of heater power per orbit.
So how does this affect VMC?
Whilst VMC itself consumes very little power, it is these 'Warm-up' pointings that prevent us from using the camera. The parts of the orbit in which we would normally conduct VMC observations are taken up with Warm-up instead.
The good news is that Mars Express is now coming to the end of the current season, the eclipses are down to just a few minutes and their length is dropping rapidly – meaning Warmups are no longer needed. This has enabled us to re-activate VMC.
The first observation takes place on 29 February and we have managed to plan a total of 10 observation slots over the next four weeks.
Whilst the camera as been off for while, there has been plenty of exciting work going on behind the scenes in the last few months and we hope to be able to bring you more details on this shortly.
– Simon


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sleeping bags
Sort bags by :
Valandre sleeping bags are divided into a no-compromise goose down line and a high-end duck down line for less extreme conditions. The goose down bags are ... inspired by the needs of high altitude "fast and light" non-oxygen climbing: No mistakes, no compromise – full high-tech construction. MORE INTRO
The duck down sleeping bags are designed to offer the best possible ratio between insulation and weight with the price as part of the equation. LESS
The high tech three dimensional cut, consisting of the inside cut and shape of the fabric and an identical but larger outside fabric. MORE Basically, the smaller inside sleeping bag fabric is connected to the larger outside sleeping bag with over 32 hand cut, anatomical shaped baffles. In the Shocking Blue, Mirage, Bloody Mary, Odin NEO and Thor NEO, we cut and assemble a three dimensional fabric puzzle consisting of 80 pieces LESS
Building on the techniques used to construct the Shocking Blue sleeping bag, the La Fayette pushes the limits of sleeping bag design. MORE A sleeping bag truly in a class of its own. Designed to be used in connection with the Combi down suit (the Combi suite is worn inside the sleeping bag to take on the harshest conditions on the planet), in alpine style non-oxygen 8000m peak climbs, the La Fayette is designed to offer maximum insulation, in environments where warmth is more important than comfort. LESS
The SWING series sleeping bags are a tuck stitched continuous baffle construction. Sewn up in a quality solid POLYESTER outside fabric MORE of Japanese origin. This classic, non-technical construction is perfectly balanced by a down quality that "does the job" without adding unnecessary cost on the price tag. The SWINGS are ideally suited for the casual camper/backpacker. LESS
CHILL OUT SERIESGoose Down RDS
LA FAYETTE SERIESGoose Down
The foundation of the jacket and equipment line of Valandre was historically made to satisfy the special needs from high altitude expedition climbing, in the early eighties, as the tactics changed into small and fast alpine teams, went non ox.
Products like the Bering, Baffin, Combi not to forget the Olan booties and Oural mittens, are pure high altitude expedition oriented products.
The Outdoor Award winning jackets: Immelman G2 and the Bifrost, are semi oriented expedition and alpine products, and is a reminder of the creative capacity from Valandre.
In an expedition sleeping bag upon which your survival depends 65% of the insulating weight/mass, comes from "down". Since Valandré uses"one of the most sophisticated 3D construction techniques in the world", we simply do not want to fill the shell with "hay". After all you won't expect Porsche to fitt a 911 with a 2 stroke engine. Straight and simple explanations are therefore important.
It is fundamental to keep in mind that geese are migrating animals. Twice a year they migrate, between the north and south hemispheres, therefore completing long distance endurance flights up to 800 miles non-stop and at altitudes reaching 24.000ft with a cruising speed of 50 miles/hour (80km/h).... more
Imagine a down gear construction technique that is based on pure geometry. leaving nothing to chance. Using the human form as a guide, fabric is formed into shapes that surround every part of your body, minimizing excess weight while keeping consistent levels of insulation at every point of your body. This is the foundation of Tubular Bell construction.
Starting with a cylindrical form that follows the human form perfectly, we cover that shape with a second, larger cylinder. This is where the Tubular Bells start to ring! Connect the smaller and larger cylinders with precisely cut baffles, or ribs, that follow the contour of the inner and outer cylinder. Now we have a construction technique that is miles/kilometers ahead of everyone else.... more
A clean product will perform better, last longer, and keep you warmer. Valandré has a special washing and repair service for all of its products. Simply send your Valandré item to the address below and we'll clean it, do any repairs that are necessary, and get it back to you in top shape. You'll be ready for the next adventure in no time at all. Ok, it takes about 72 hours (FedEx) to 14 days (post) weeks for shipping.
For this reason Valandré recommends you use a product like Woolite® to wash your product. Simply place your product in a large commercial front-loading washing machine, put in the Woolite® per the directions on the bottle, and insert your hard-earned money in the machine.... more


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Prime suspect sought in Sugar Land home invasion robbery
A man with family members in Houston and Broward County, Fla. is a prime suspect in a Jan. 2 home invasion robbery in Sugar Land, officials said.
Fort Bend County sheriff's officials said Dominique Jamal Vorrice, 23, and four others, broke into a house in the 10400 block of Overview. Deputies said one of the attackers pistol whipped a person who lived there. At first, they demanded money but then stole other belongings inside the home because no cash was found, sheriff's officials said.
Vorrice is about 5-feet-11 and weighs 175 pounds. He has black hair and brown eyes. He is a wanted fugitive and should be considered armed and dangerous, officials said.
Up to $5,000 is offered for information leading to his arrest. Call Fort Bend Crime Stoppers at 281-342-TIPS.


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Colt McCoy and No. 2 gained a measure of revenge against Texas Tech and its new prolific passer.
McCoy threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Dan Buckner in the fourth quarter that gave the Longhorns some room and Texas beat the Red Raiders 34-24 Saturday night.
McCoy's 3-yard TD to Buckner with nine minutes left put Texas ahead 31-17, but it was an otherwise shaky outing for last season's runner-up for the Heisman Trophy.
McCoy finished with 205 yards and two interceptions on 24-of-34 passing for the Longhorns (3-0, 1-0 Big 12).
First-year starter Taylor Potts passed for 420 yards and three touchdowns for Texas Tech (2-1, 0-1), but fumbled on sack by Sergio Kindle to set up McCoy's TD pass.
Texas Tech beat the Longhorns 39-33 last season behind Graham Harrell and star receiver Michael Crabtree, a loss that cost the Longhorns a shot at the national title.
Unlike last season, when the Red Raiders jumped to a big early lead, the fireworks didn't really start until the second half. The defenses didn't let McCoy and Potts get rolling early.
Jordan Shipley's 46-yard punt return in the first quarter for Texas was the only time either team reached the end zone in the first half that ended 10-3.
Shipley caught the ball in the middle of the field, dashed straight ahead, then broke to his right and outran punter Donnie Carona to the corner. His momentum took him all the way to the massive live Longhorn mascot Bevo and he startled the big fella.
The Red Raiders' defense bottled up McCoy like few defenses have.
McCoy was out of sync with most of his receivers the entire half and struggled to find any running room. The Longhorns' first drive ended when McCoy was met at the line of scrimmage and the hit knocked his helmet off. He was sacked on the next play.
The offenses got going in the third quarter.
Texas scored the first offensive touchdown on the first drive of the second half. McCoy converted three third downs with passes before Tre' Newton scooted 19 yards up the middle for a 17-3 Texas lead.
The Red Raiders immediately answered with Potts' throwing the first of two touchdowns to Lyle Leong, who was wide open after beating cornerback Chykie Brown on a fake for a 14-yarder.
Texas Tech coach Mike Leach tried to catch the Longhorns off guard with an onside kick, but the Longhorns recovered at the Red Raiders' 47. Given the short field, McCoy found Buckner with a completion across the middle to the Texas Tech 1 before Cody Johnson punched it in for the touchdown.
Potts was getting better as the game wore on. The Red Raiders marched right down the field to get back within a touchdown on Potts' 10-yard TD pass to Leong again.
After picking apart the Texas defense, Potts gave up two turnovers in the fourth that swung the game.
Longhorns Get Revenge Against Red Raiders
No. 2 Texas 34, Texas Tech 24
Colt McCoy and No. 2 gained a measure of revenge against Texas Tech and its new prolific passer.


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An 11th grade Palestinian Authority textbook describes the inevitable victory of Islam over the West with chilling words, in light of the World Trade Center horror:
"...We do not claim that the collapse of Western civilization, and the transfer of the center of civilization to us [Islam] will happen in the next decade. Nevertheless [Western civilization] has begun to collapse and to become a pile of rubble."
Let your local newspaper and TV editors know about the anti-American incitement being fed to Palestinian schoolchildren.
"Special Report with Brit Hume" on Fox News (Sept. 28, 2001) focused on President Bush's efforts to make the public aware that the campaign against terrorism is not a campaign against Islam. But in spreading his message of tolerance, Bush has endorsed some Islamic leaders who are the very purveyors of the terrorist message.
Following is a transcript from Fox News:
RITA COSBY, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Since the September 11 attacks, President Bush has often been flanked by Muslim leaders in an attempt to reach out to what many have perceived as more moderate members of that community.
But Fox News has obtained this videotape showing some of those same leaders at a Washington, D.C. rally last year, publicly advocating known terrorist organizations.
ABDURAHMAN ALAMOUDI, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN MUSLIM COUNCIL: Hear that, Bill Clinton: We are all supporters of Hamas. Allahu akbar. I wish to add that I am also a supporter of Hezbollah. Anybody supports Hezbollah here?
COSBY: Abdurahman Alamoudi is the president of the American Muslim Council. In the fall of 2000, Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign returned his financial contribution because of his ties to Hamas.
Three days after the hijackings, Alamoudi joined President Bush at this National Cathedral prayer service dedicated to the victims, along with Muzammil Saddiqi, the spiritual leader of the Islamic Society of Orange County, who spoke at the event.
DR. MUZAMMIL SADDIQI, ISLAMIC SOCIETY OF ORANGE COUNTY: Keep our country strong for the sake of the good.
COSBY: But on this videotape, rally participants are seen denouncing Israel and the United States. One of the rally's organizers was Muzammil Saddiqi.
SADDIQI: The United States of America is directly and indirectly responsible for the plight of the Palestinian people. If you remain on the side of injustice, the wrath of God will come...
(courtesy of JAT)
Latest evidence shows that Yasser Arafat helped orchestrate the Intifada from the outset, and did not only come on board (as the media claims) after the violence broke out.
Manduh Nosal, ex-military chief of the Democratic Front, wrote a diary-style book about the period, and excerpts were recently printed in the Palestinian Authority daily, "Al Ayyam."
The following entry is from Sept. 28, 2000 -- prior to Sharon's much-publicized visit to the Temple Mount:
"Arafat said that it is easy to recruit the street and to draw them into a campaign for Jerusalem... The masses will act even if the [Palestinian] Authority doesn't budge. The campaign has started and it will be long...
"Arafat gave instructions to the security apparatus to defend the areas of the Palestinian Authority with all means. The protestors were permitted to come up to the IDF barriers and express their rage as they wish. Arafat personally spoke with the commanders and gave them detailed instructions.
"The heads of Hamas and [Islamic] Jihad were invited to meetings to prepare the strike and processions of rage. The public was called to come to Al Aqsa, the number of guards were increased and a night shift was implemented."
Let your local newspaper and TV editors know about this new evidence of Arafat helping to orchestrate the Intifada from the start.
(translation by imra.org.il)


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Vinod Khosla –a co-founder of Sun Microsystems and its first Chairman is a highly respected Silicon Valley investor as the general partner of Kleiner Perkins. Over the last few years, he has moved away from technology to Energy and Greentech.
Yesterday he delivered an interesting talk at Caltech on Extrapolating the past Vs Inventing the future. The talk was peppered with some brilliant statements, some philosophical musings and scenarios for the future. I found the talk scintillating The entire talk can be viewed here. (The audio quality at the beginning of the session is poor quality, but when Vinod begins his talk, the audio quality is excellent)
Here are some of the excerpts:
Extrapolating the past is ridden with mistakes starting from forecasts:
On why forecasts go wrong (he talks about a number of forecasts that's gone completely haywire:
Assumptions get embedded in our system. We don't question our assumptions. Forecasting is about our embedded assumptions not explicitly stated.
On quantitative modeling:
Chasing the false precision, chasing the 3rd order effects
Input the measurable, ignore the immeasurable
Obscured embedded assumptions.
He concludes the section after giving several instances by saying that "The more rapid the change, the less likely are the assumptions to be right".
On why inventing the future is absolutely critical:
He starts by explaining the Black Swan effect giving several examples and declares that much of what we assume to be true is retrospective predictability. Some great statements that he makes:
Improbable doesn't equal unimportant and the only thing that's important is the improbable.
No matter where you look, there's room for innovation, however unlikely it looks
Bring me the ideas that has a 90% chance of failure!
If you take enough shots at the goal, failure doesn't matter; it doesn't exist.
"Imagine the possible".
His final words in response to a question from the audience sums it all: "The talk is just to give a perspective; but most importantly is to convey an attitude".
Well said, Sir !


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A hallmark of modern architecture, the Bibliotheca Alexandrina is a superb addition to Alexandria's cityscape. A stunning work of stone and metal, the central library features a huge, tilted glass roof reminiscent of a sundial, and the walls are carved with text from over 120 languages, ancient and modern. Its location beside the Mediterranean only emphasizes its sophisticated lines of construction. Everything is created to inspire admiration and to remind the visitor of the importance of the library's past role.
The Bibliotheca, which opened in 2003, harks back to Alexandria's role as a prominent seat of learning in ancient times. Ptolemy II of Egypt opened the original Library of Alexandria in the third century BC, from which point it grew into the largest library in the world. While the modern incarnation does not have such high aspirations – it is still relatively small when compared with other international libraries – it is well on its way to establishing itself on the academic circuit.
But this is much more than a library. In addition to the central collection there are museums of antiquities, manuscripts and the history of science; galleries for temporary art displays; a planetarium; special sections for children; and rare books available nowhere else in the world. You can wander around the permanent collection of Egyptian film-maker, writer and artist Shadi Abdel Salam. Or take a seat in front of a cultural film relating the history of Egypt. And once you've done all that, it's not a bad place to find a quiet corner and settle down with a good book or two.
The Bibliotheca Alexandrina is at El Shatby 21526. See www.bibalex.org for more.
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