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During the Middle Ages, the church used art in its cathedrals to draw the eyes of worshippers toward the heavens. Today, art is at the center of an effort to resurrect a blighted urban area once known as the "Jewel of Springfield."
"The Springfield Art Association is one of the anchors of the Enos Park neighborhood, so we will play a big part in supporting and leading the way for the revitalization plan," said Betsy Dollar, SAA executive director. "There are some pretty impressive nationwide statistics that show when you bring artists into a neighborhood, it turns around. … The plan itself shows a very different footprint for the SAA, a new building perhaps. It is a little premature to address all the issues of how we hope to use and complement the plan, but we hope to make some changes to our campus."
Dollar refers to the effort by the Enos Park Neighborhood Improvement Association, which hired The Lakota Group, Chicago-based urban planners, and Mansur Real Estate Services of Indianapolis to develop a long-term strategy to restore the area to its former glory.
"I just can't blurt out too much of what we hope is in the offing here, but there are some exciting things on the horizon," Dollar said. "It all takes community engagement and money. I am doing my best to offer strong programming to build that engagement. I trust that once we grow our membership base, a lot of the other things will fall into place."
We asked her to be more specific. "Coming in as an outsider I immediately saw that Springfield does not have the resources to support multiple visual arts organizations who are duplicating efforts," she said. "I am currently working to bring the visual arts organizations back together to examine what each organization does best and how we can work together, perhaps under one roof, as The Springfield Community Visual Arts Center. There is a lot of history that could make this impossible, but I am willing to examine the possibilities."
The Enos Park neighborhood is just north of downtown Springfield, and encompasses 36 square blocks of residential and business properties within the confines of Third and Ninth Streets and Carpenter and North Grand. According to EPNIA's website, Enos Park is home to "a plethora of diversity. Its tree-lined streets are filled with Victorian, Italianate and Queen Anne style homes that date well back into the early nineteenth century."
But the neighborhood has its work cut out for it. According to planning documents, of 602 residential properties, about 8 percent are boarded up or appear vacant, 32 percent (191) of the homes are considered in poor condition and about 44 percent (268) appear to be in fair shape. Only 24 percent (143) appear to be in good condition.
The Art Association's role in the redevelopment hinges upon the fact it is housed in the 1833 Edwards Place at 700 N. Fourth St, the oldest house in Springfield still on its original foundation. This was once the home of prominent 19th century Springfield citizens Benjamin and Helen Edwards. Their daughter donated the house to the Amateur Art Study Club in 1913. The organization was later renamed the Springfield Art Association.
Over time, the SAA expanded into an art center encompassing seven separate structures on five acres of tree-shaded grounds. In addition to operating Edwards Place as an historic site, the association offers an art gallery, art library and art school.
What SAA does now
Likely its most visible program is Art Outreach, now in its 36th year. Art Outreach has more than 70 portfolios to be checked out, each delving into a particular artist or movement in art history, or theme, using prints and artifacts.
Portfolios typically include 10 to 12 prints, slides or artifacts, and an information packet, which contains the background data of the presented work and its artist, and also highlights potential reading suggestions and research points, along with discussion questions. There is sometimes a supplementary craft project.
Dollar said parents or local groups, such as sororities or fraternities, check out the portfolios, and conduct the presentations or lectures in local schoolrooms for children of all grades.
"It's completely free to the schools and the portfolios are correlated to the public schools' curriculum standards," says Dollar, who took over leadership of the art association in October 2009. "Art Outreach is all volunteer-led, no teachers."
SAA offers an array of art classes held during the day, on weeknights and Saturdays, and small and seasonal art workshops throughout the year. Adult art school classes include ceramics, jewelry making and enameling, drawing and painting, photography and papermaking. The extensive lending library of fine arts books has a reading room available as well. And there are the popular summer art camps for young people.
The SAA hosts historically accurate activities, such as Victorian afternoon teas, in the fall. The 22nd annual Fine Arts Fair, featuring juried fine art and artists and craftsmen from around the country, was just held Sept. 18-19.
There will be Haunted Nights of History (which feature "ghosts" of 19th century Springfield citizens sharing the macabre and tragic stories of their lives and deaths) and a pumpkin-carving workshop in October; a Victorian séance; an international film festival in January; and a Victorian Christmas Tea. Holiday Hall is a seasonal sale of art by local artisans.
Holiday craft workshops sell out almost immediately, said Dollar. "We had grandmas bringing in grandkids to make gingerbread houses, or spend a couple hours making ornaments. Extremely popular. We're trying to do more of that. Twice a year we do family art nights, when families just come and make crafts and play games."
Dollar said the art gallery just closed its successful June-through-August run of "Play Ball: The Art of America's Favorite Pastime." Now through Oct. 1, the gallery features "Pulp: Fact, Fiction and Fantasy," a juried show that celebrates papermaking and the 2D and 3D art made from it. Artists from around the nation are participating, as well as an exhibit by Betsy Dollar herself, titled "Wedding Day." "I work my butt off trying to find unique art exhibits for the gallery," she said. (For more details about SAA's programs, go to www.springfieldart.org.)
Another high-profile SAA event is the Beaux Arts Ball. The SAA threw its first Beaux Arts Ball in February 1930, as a way to honor volunteers and financial supporters. It continues today as a black-tie gala, replete with a royal court, fancy dresses and magic in the air. This year, the 79th Annual Beaux Arts Ball, "One Romantic Evening," will be Nov. 27.
According to SAA's website, activities at post-war balls have all included a presentation of the court and coronation and may have included a musical or dance performance, art auctions and dancing. Some balls have served only refreshments while others have hosted full sit-down dinners.
What the future holds
Besides keeping up and improving quality programs, Dollar hopes to bring the organization into the 21st century.
"I'd like to turn this rather big office of mine into a computer lab, where students could use the latest software to learn digital graphic design, drawing and animation. I would like a six-station Mac Lab with a smart board and all that good stuff."
Another idea Dollar calls essential: creation of a pre-kindergarten program.
"It's so important for really little kids to be given materials and be allowed to explore with those materials. Make things. The educational research all supports the notion that self esteem is built via hands-on learning," Dollar says. "I really don't want the kids to be restrained by the notion of making a mess, and getting dirty. This is a safe place for them to do that."
With her first year behind her in the job, Dollar's biggest challenge remains overcoming the information gap about the 97-year-old arts organization among the people of Springfield.
"The art association is about to turn 100 years old in September 2013. We are going to have our big centennial celebration. Unfortunately, a large portion of the Springfield population only knows the art association for the Beaux Arts Ball," Dollar says.
"I was actually blown away in the first month that I was here … people would look at me (and say), 'Oh, you guys throw that ball with the funny name.' I had no idea the ball was the prevailing image of the art association. I came to Springfield on my first visit and saw all these grand things here. I wonder, 'How could people not know it's here?'"
Dollar called the art association "a huge wealth of opportunity, information and fun that is dismissed by some as being this group of crazy aristocrats. Most people assume they are not rich enough to participate, which is not the case."
Rick Wade is a freelance writer and lifelong central Illinois resident. He currently lives in Jacksonville, with his wife, two dogs and a cat. He may be contacted at email@example.com.
Grabbing art with both hands
The hallways echo with chatter and laughter from someplace in the building.
We track the sounds to a classroom where kids wearing blousy paint-splattered shirts are gleefully brush-stroking watercolors on poster boards, in groups clustered here and there on the floor, or in studied solitude at a table. Older girls, teenagers probably, bustle purposefully about, helping kids, cleaning up spills, giving instructions.
Meanwhile, in yet another building, a bevy of uncharacteristically quiet teenage girls sits at electric potter's wheels. Their eyes are riveted to the spots between the wet, spinning clay and their muddy hands where, miraculously, vases begin to form.
In another house on the property is Dollar's not-quite secret hideaway where she works at one of her favorite passions: making paper.
Dollar uses the paper she makes to create art, some of which is on display in October as part of a new exhibition in the art gallery, "Pulp: Fact, Fiction and Fantasy," a juried show that celebrates papermaking and the 2D and 3D art made from it.
Dollar came to Springfield about a year ago with an impressive resume; she holds a master's degree in fine arts from University of Colorado, taught art at all education levels and in workshops, managed galleries, was co-founder and president of Optical Illusions, Inc., an audio-visual production company, served as administrative director of a private preschool-through-fifth-grade school and exhibits her own work in juried art shows.
Dollar said she teaches a hands-on approach to art. "I have a strong background in alternative education, and I am pretty serious about giving people stuff to learn with their hands. People learn in a variety of ways, and sitting and being talked at is not always the best way to take in information and process it," she explains.
"To do art, I always start kids moving around, even if it's just learning the amazing proportion of their own bodies and how those observations carry over into the world. (For instance) your hand is basically the size of your face. I have them stand up and test: What is a hand length? How many hands tall am I? If they can physically feel it, they are more likely to draw in accurate proportion. If they can't find those experiences in the traditional school setting, I love offering them here, where sort of anything, within reason, goes."
When asked how she is able to handle a job with such diverse duties, she laughs heartily.
"Strangely enough, with the SAA being a sort of little five-ring circus, with the historic property, the gallery and the school, the various fundraisers and events that flow through here, it all seems to utilize my rather strange list of abilities. So here I am.
"It's this sort of wild mix of one week I am coordinating for the art fair, then I am doing the schedule for the gallery and looking at artists' work, then maybe I am judging work for another art fair, then we're trying to design new classes to attract new people into the school, then maybe we're brainstorming what will be the next art outreach portfolio we want to develop."
As she walks back to the main building, Dollar pauses and nods toward the large garden where vegetables are growing. The field is neatly tended. "I would like to see people in the neighborhood use this area for growing food, so they will feel ownership in this place," Dollar says.
All the bright colors of summer – green, yellow, red – and the pink mansion with the green shutters stand in stark contrast to the gritty, black and gray streets that seem to constrain the five-acre oasis.
Clearly, Betsy Dollar has a vision for these aging buildings along the busy streets where cars zip by. Dollar said she just wants the people inside the cars to stop, and look at what is available here for their benefit.
During a time when public schools are balancing budgets by slashing extracurriculars such as the arts, places like the SAA will be needed more than ever.
Dollar said she believes critical learning skills get lost among educational methods that encourage students to parrot back information without processing it. That's where SAA programs come in, providing hands-on exercises for increasingly complex minds.
"Every form of art, no matter how simple, requires a consecutive series of decisions … of where that line goes, what will lie next to it, what comes after that. Those skills are absolutely critical to lifelong learning and processing information and being in touch with your environment.
"The arts are important," she added, "whether a child grows up to be a rocket scientist, a house painter or a philosopher."
Plans for this old house
There is some big news for the oldest house in Springfield that still sits on its original foundation.
The Springfield Art Association at Edwards Place recently received a Jeffris Foundation matching grant for renovation of the historic Enos Park home to restore it to its appearance during the Lincoln era.
"They are giving us $20,000 to create a revitalization plan for the interior of Edwards Place, a plan where each piece of furniture, window coverings, floors, and furnishings, room by room, will be analyzed as to what needs to be done to repair or restore it, or leave it alone, put a ribbon over it so nobody touches it, or which pieces may not be period appropriate," said Betsy Dollar, SAA executive director. "One staff member already has been researching family letters and papers, to figure out which pieces go in which rooms, for instance. We have a much stronger historic interpretation of the house at this point. Now it's just a matter of getting the rest of it visually up to snuff."
To pay for the plan's recommendations, SAA has created the new 1913 Centennial Fund, a capital campaign. "It is going to be a pretty big capital campaign to do what that plan lays out for Edwards Place. I'm hoping as well that we can fund a computer lab, do some other work on the various studios, upgrade lighting, and really give us a nest egg to move forward into our next 100 years as a great arts location here in Springfield."
Edwards Place, the home of Benjamin and Helen Edwards from 1843 to 1909, is an elegant Italianate mansion once a center for social activity in Springfield. Prominent citizens and notables, such as Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas, were entertained at lavish dinner parties and the grounds played host to many summer picnics and political rallies. It is said that Lincoln courted his future wife, Mary Todd, at Edwards Place.
The 4,200-square-foot Italianate mansion and five-acre grounds was donated by the Edwards' daughter, Alice Edwards Ferguson, to the Amateur Art Study Club in 1913.
Dollar is using the history of the place to attract visitors. One tool for that is a new brochure with a map that points out that Edwards Place is only a short walk from the Lincoln Presidential Museum. It's open for guided tours from 11 a.m.-4 p.m., Tuesday through Saturday, and by appointment. Suggested donation is $3. Located at 700 N. 4th St., SAA is two blocks north of Carpenter Street.
"We're getting Edwards Place more into that historic loop in Springfield. We're between the museum and Lincoln's tomb. We are only six blocks from the museum, and people act like we are up here in the hinterlands. It's a nice walk," she said.


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Is picking stocks nothing more than a hobby for bored upper-class men? Felix Salmon, the Reuters blogger, recently wrote an interesting post making this argument.
The piece quickly turns into an exploration of online financial journalism (Salmon's own job). It also launches into a bit of media criticism about stock tickers scattered through stories.
There's a reason for all those tickers, having to do with how news stories get automatically distributed across sites. Salmon should know this perfectly well and seems to have forgotten.
The diversion into media, however, means Salmon gives the hobby argument short picking stocks shrift, in our view. Time to dig back in.
The case against picking stocks can be summed up like this: Men do it because they can. They have disposable incomes and time, the two things you really need for any serious hobby.
He goes on to break down the cost of picking stocks. Salmon's argument is that picking stocks is a cheap hobby, at least compared to typical rich-guy pastimes such as collecting cars, flying planes or riding fancy racing bikes.
That may be true, but only considering the cost of stock-picking newsletters and services, which Salmon estimates at $5,000 a year. A pittance compared to adventure travel or wine collecting.
If only the losses from picking stocks stopped at $5,000 dropped on worthless stock ideas. The real cost is much, much higher.
As the market researcher Dalbar noted in its most recent breakdown of individual investor behavior, active stock investors underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.32% annually over the past two decades. Bond investors trailed by 5.56% annually.
Just owning the S&P 500 over those years brought investors 7.81% a year, on average, while market timers posted 3.49%. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index gained 6.5% a year while individual bond buyers got stuck with a paltry 0.94% a year in gains.
If you're a retirement investor, here's what happens: Imagine you have $10,000 to start and $10,000 a year to save. Over 20 years at 7.81% you end up with $529,595. The "active" stock investor has $310,126.
On the fixed-income side, the passive bond investor has $447,682 while the active bond buyer comes up with $232,335. Compounding being what it is, this trend just gets worse when you take it out to 40 years or more.
Here come the tickers, Felix: You could get into a passive, long-term plan easily enough with Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI).
Add to that a collection of correctly allocated holdings in commodities, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), emerging markets with Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (VWO) and real estate through SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR), among other inexpensive exchange-traded funds. (See how that works? Now this story is all over the web.)
Nassim N. Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, recently took the investment industry to task, arguing in a paper that active trading returns amounted to nothing more than luck. He called those short-term outperformances the "spurious tail," the result of chance wins in a field of losers that creates the impression that winning is possible.
"An operator starting today, no matter his skill level, and ability to predict prices, will be outcompeted by the spurious tail," Taleb maintains.
And that's the important point about picking stocks as a hobby. If you are disposed to trade, treat it like a real hobby, with limits. Create a "play account," stick $10,000 in it and make sure your real retirement money is properly invested in a serious, long-term plan.
When you blow through that picking stocks hobby budget, take your next $10,000 and buy some really nice golf clubs, or maybe take a cruise around Europe. You'll be more fulfilled.
There are plenty of generally pointless hobbies in life. Market watching is not that harmful, if you can keep it in perspective as a hobby — not a lifelong retirement plan.

subset: commoncrawl


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Gaining the motivation to make a positive change in life, start working out or simply work towards escaping the vicious circle of debt isn't as easy as it should be. It's all too easy to lose sight of such goals or simply feel as if it's a neverending issue. So how about an app that costs only $1.99 and could help provide the much needed motivation? That's exactly what GroHabit hopes to do.
A personal development app, GroHabit is all about cultivating new habits that will positively improve a person's life. Recently updated, GroHabit introduces two new features in this mission. An interactive logging system uncovers the strengths and weaknesses of each user while Skill Bars allow the user to see their progress in five habit-building skills. A new skill has also been added known as Adapting, focusing on users who are hindered by external events or situations beyond their control.
While willpower is required alongside GroHabit, it helps users decide what behavior will help them reach their goal and how long it will take. A flexible days off system means that users are allowed to vary their schedules as needed but it's easy to track how things are going with a mini-calendar function.
An inspirational picture and quotes section also allows users to always check out motivational bits and pieces to remind them of why they're so determined to complete their goal. Plus GroHabit backs this up with daily messages offering helpful tips and motivational messages.
Why not give it a shot today and see how life can improve?


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Posts Tagged GHC
Grace Hopper Conference
Posted by sarah in FOSS, interesting articles, opinion on October 6, 2008
October 1-4, 2008: Keystone Resort, Colorado
Day 1 began at 5:15AM on Wednesday. A taxi picked up Trishan and Myles, and then came to Trinity for Rachel and I. After we piled our stuff in the trunk, we were on our way to Bradley Airport. We got some breakfast and ran into Professor Ingrid Russell, who would be joining us on our panel discussion. She was taking a later flight, and we'd see her in Colorado. The flight there was fairly uneventful: we had a pit stop in Philadelphia, where Myles happily got a Philly Cheese Steak, and then landed in Denver. We took the shuttles to the rental car place, where we saw many other Grace Hopper attendees—women, in groups, some with posters. We got our trusty GPS and a car, and off we went to Keystone.
Let me just say how amazingly beautiful it was. Jagged mountains already snow-capped, tall aspens all around, and a nearby lake to top it all off. We got to the (huge!) resort and waited in line with all the other women at the front desk (oh, poor Myles and Trishan). We got all our keys and then checked in at the Conference Center, where we got small computer bags filled with goodies: about 20 different pens, pads of paper, a hand-powered flashlight, some cheap binoculars, a post-it-note booklet, 4 different kinds of chap stick, a water bottle, and Facebook mints, to name only a few. Then we checked out the condo: wow. We had a kitchen, dining table, gas fireplace, living room, 2 bathrooms, and 3 bedrooms.
But to the conference. Read the rest of this entry »


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Have been following this discussion in which different tech bloggers have been attacking the traditional practice of PR, saying it's being replaced in many ways by social media. What do you think?
It started back in August with this post from Scobleizer stating "Build PR by building a great service and turn your users into your PR agents." Then Michael Arrington on Tech Crunch says that PR is broken. "They're trying to apply the same rules they used when the number of journalists covering their companies was a manageable, chummy lot. Today there's a whole spectrum of people writing about startups in big media publications, large and small blogs, Twitter, Friendfeed and everything in between." He was commenting on Steve Rubel's (Edelman, a PR firm) post in which he poses the question of PR becoming obsolete. He emphasized the need to adapt. Brian Solis defends PR and says it has been in the process of reinvention for over 10 years now.
The blog PRsquared sums things up "Scoble, Rubel and Arrington basically made the point that PR firms are unnecessary if you have a great product and are willing to spend a lot of time engaging in the blogosphere." And, Scoble himself did a bit of a wrap up on the issue.
OK, so all this was back in August. Why am I talking about it today? BoomTown made a post about appearing on a panel entitled "Is Social Media Killing PR?".
What's my take? I definitely think that social media is changing PR, and those who cannot change will be dead in terms of their career. If they view social media as a sideline of PR, a nice extra, then they are missing the boat. They need to engage the features of social media, community, transparency, etc., and let go of this antiquated notion of a tightly controlled and carefully placed message. People are going to be defensive when you tell them their industry is dying or that the ways that they have been successful in the past are no longer relevant. But, the ones who embrace innovation will be defining new standards of success.
Yes, the basics are still necessary, good relationships, excellent writing skills, creativity. But those can be exponentially enhanced by social media. Don't ignore it.
Jeremiah Owyang, who was on the panel last night, summarizes with some proactive stances the "evolved PR agency" can take.


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Prison Planet.com
April 29, 2013
A Russian airliner with 159 passengers on board narrowly escaped an al-Qaeda missile, according to an Interfax story appearing on Monday.
Interfax did not implicate al-Qaeda in the attack, however.
"Syrian [officials] informed us that on Monday morning, unidentified forces launched two ground-to-air missiles which exploded in the air very close to a civilian aircraft belonging to a Russian airline," a source told the Russian agency, according to Russia Today.
"Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of.," the New York Times reported on Saturday.
The Syrian opposition is a creation of the CIA, as is al-Qaeda. Even the U.S. Treasury Department was obliged to admit al-Qaeda dominates the so-called Syrian rebellion. The al-Qaeda franchise in Syria is Jabhat al-Nusra. The Salafist group routinely executes prisoners, beheads its enemies, ransacks Christian churches, and slaughters innocents in terrorist suicide bombings.
This article was posted: Monday, April 29, 2013 at 6:03 pm


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"Modern Family" star Sarah Hyland has blamed her beauty routine ahead of the Golden Globe Awards for a nasty bout of hives.
The actress woke up on Sunday and panicked after realizing she had broken out in spots all over her face and chest, just hours before one of the biggest nights in Hollywood.
The 22-year-old smothered herself in antihistamine lotion, and suggests a spray tan was to blame for the allergic reaction.
She tells E! Online, "I woke up this morning with hives like all over my face and chest. I got a spray tan yesterday, so I think maybe it was from that. It was weird.
"I put on Benadryl lotion. I didn't want to take a Benadryl pill because then everyone would have thought I was drunk."


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Theological questions aside, I really think this is a rule of life and not just football. But the point is that at no point in a football game, be it success of a play or even a determination of what the other side is actually doing, do you have fixed answers. Instead, you have probabilities, and even then your probabilities are merely estimates of the actual probabilities. So when I talk about "coolly flipping coins," I mean that everything is probabalistic. Just like when Michael Jordan went to the free-throw line, no matter what any sports writer tells you, he is never destined to make the shot, or destined to make the game-winner. Tiger Woods is never destined to hit the putt, and Tom Brady or Peyton Manning were neither destined to win the Super Bowl or hit any particular pass.
Instead, it was merely "highly likely" that each was going to do those things, because each is very good at what they do. But at no point is anything determinate.
Indeed, one of the criticisms of my post was that the probabilities dramatically increase regarding offensive success because you gain more information as time goes on. But that argument doesn't hold water. If Michael Jordan can only max-out his free-throw percentage to a point, then there is no way to max out offensive production in football when at all turns you have a human (or group of them) making choices on the other side in ways that shift your probabilities. That is a far too nebulous cloud to assume certitude.
And any playcaller will tell you the same thing. As Norm Chow says, you are never quite sure what coverage they are in, but instead you take pieces of the field or pieces of the defensive front and attack those, and therein lies success. Mike Leach does not even require his guys to memorize coverages in the sense of "Hey they are in Cover 4!" Instead, they group them into things they can recognize and they probe areas. But at every stage, things are probabalistic. I've even discussed the notion that a purely random approach to offensive and defensive calls might even be optimal.
When I made the point about the hot hand theory, part of it was about how you cannot always extrapolate how good an offense is versus a defense just because they scored on a drive, or even if they scored a lot in a half or game, because the standard deviation is too high. Some people argued that things would even out over the course of a game; I think that is sort-of true, but I still think the variance is higher than they account for. But that's an empirical question we can solve later.
But another (amazing) site, Advanced NFL Stats, made the point about the difficulty of extrapolating skill levels from even successful outcomes:
Consider a very simple example game. Assume both [Pittsburgh] and [Cleveland] each get 12 1st downs in a game against each other. PIT's 1st downs come as 6 separate bunches of 2 consecutive 1st downs followed by a punt. CLE's 1st downs come as 2 bunches of 6 consecutive 1st downs resulting in 2 TDs. CLE's remaining drives are all 3-and-outs followed by a solid punt. Each team performed equally well, but the random "bunching" of successful events gave CLE a 14-0 shutout.
The bunching effect doesn't have to be that extreme to make the difference in a game, but it illustrates my point. Natural and normal phenomena can conspire to overcome the difference between skill, talent, ability, strategy, and everything else that makes one team "better" than another.
And adding support for my argument about the high degree of variance, Advanced NFL Stats went on to try to nail down exactly how much in the way of outcomes can be attributed to skill versus luck in the NFL. You can read the details of the explanation there, and NFL teams obviously are closer in relative skill levels than most college teams, but the results are nevertheless striking:
...By comparing the two distributions, we can calculate that of the 160 season outcomes, only 78 of them differ from what we'd expect from a pure luck distribution. That's only 48%, which would suggest that in 52% of NFL games, luck is the deciding factor!
There might yet be more to it than these calculations, but the point is that variance is high in outcomes in football games. This is not to say that skill is unimportant, but the lesson is instead that you cannot merely look to actual statistics and actual outcomes to determine who is the best. Football games are tests of ranges of probabilities put up against one another:
Will all eleven players execute their assignments; will the quarterback make the right reads; will the coaches accurately assess the opponent's schemes; will the sun shine in the receiver's eye; will the ball become sweaty where the ballcarrier holds it; will there be an injury on the play; and if these factors randomly cut 50/50, will they work in our favor enough times in a row to get us in field goal or touchdown range.
In other words, lots of football fans, players, and even coaches suffer from a Fooled by Randomness problem when they analyze the game. Football is more quantum mechanics than it is Newtonian physics (though with a splash of game theory). Yet the belief in absolute determinism is natural: we intuitively want results to be indicative of objective truths, and it is much less complex to analyze easy to observe statistics and outcomes than it is to try to estimate the underlying probabilities. But football doesn't always give us large enough sample sizes to believe that results are as instructive as we'd like. So, if we want real answers, we have to admit that there's lots of luck around.
(And if you're a fan of the Michigan Wolverines, this gives you an (incredibly weak) excuse: "It's all the result of bad luck!")


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Construction of a $220-million outlet mall in Pooler is scheduled to begin in early July.
On Monday, the Pooler City Council unanimously agreed to move forward with a concept master site plan for the 1-million-square-foot upscale development on 173 acres in the southwest quadrant of Interstate 95 and Pooler Parkway. Councilwoman Rebecca Benton abstained.
The vote allows construction crews to begin foundation work, even though final plans for the project will likely not be approved until December.
The go-ahead from the city was needed because of the large scale of the project, said City Manager Robert Byrd Jr. He said the foundation work will take 90 days to complete, which would slow down construction if the developer had to wait for approval of numerous required permits.
"This project is going to be different from any other project we've ever looked at in the city," said Byrd.
Terry Coleman, an engineer representing Atlanta-based developer Ben Carter, agreed to return before the council in July to go over the permitting process. A traffic study is also set to soon be finalized, he said.
The proposed development is expected to be completed in April 2015.
When it opens, it will be the largest outlet mall between Atlanta and Jacksonville, Fla., said Coleman.
"It will be a huge revenue generator for the community," he told council members.
Annual sales taxes of $5.5 million have been projected for the first year.
Mayor Mike Lamb said those sales tax dollars from the develop will not only benefit Pooler, but Chatham County as well. "All the municipalities will get more money because this is coming here," he said.
Plans call for four anchor stores, a food court, restaurants, a variety of shops and two hotels on the site. The development is projected to create about 1,500 new permanent jobs and more than 1,200 construction jobs.
Carter said in a phone interview Monday that the development has already reached 50-percent in pre-leasing commitments, but declined to disclose the names of the luxury stores that he said shoppers can expect to find, until a later date.
"The Savannah market has been quite attractive to the people we're selling it to and their interest levels have come along very quickly," he said.
"They're also very impressed with the number of hotel rooms, exposure that we have on I-95 and the growth occurring..."


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|Picture stolen from my sister's facebook page, thanks Em!
He was moved to a Coronary Care unit where he could be monitored better, and the same thing happened twice more this morning. Right now the best guess from his doctors is that he is having an adverse reaction to the anesthesia from the surgery, they do not believe it is his heart.
I saw him today, and he is in quite a bit of pain, but mostly he is uncomfortable and wants to go back to the other unit. He seems...pretty good, I guess. It is just really hard to see my Dad in pain, and no one really knows what is going on at this point, although the medical staff at the hospital seems great.
We are all very scared, but we know that God is in control of the situation, and we believe not only that God CAN heal him, but that he WILL heal him.
Our God is Healer.


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From RunaWFE
RunaWFE Free is a free OpenSource business process management system. It is delivered under LGPL licence. RunaWFE Free uses its own solutions and also some ideas of the JBoss jBPM project. It has a set of additional components. These components provide convenience to the end-user.
Basic features:
- convenient user web-interface
- graphical business process designer
- bots for automatic task execution
- flexible system of role executors determination
- simple integration with relational data bases
- web services support
- portlets support
- Alfresco integration
- security system, which allows LDAP/MS Active Directory integration
- heterogeneous enterprise applications integration is possible
- localization on Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Ukrainian.
- support of Windows, Linux, Solaris, FreeBSD operational systems
Quick Start
For Windows OS:
Download installer (RunaWFE-Installer.exe) here, run it, click ok in all dialog windows with default settings. After the installation is over run simulator from Windows main menu "RunaWFE/start simulation" or click "start simulation" on the desktop. Run web interface "RunaWFE/Simulation web interface". Login for administrator: Administrator. Password: wf. The login and password are case sensitive. Run graphical process designer "RunaWFE/Process Designer".
For other OS:
- Download system from sourceforge.net.
- Install java. Version JDK 7. For instance, it is possible to install JDK 7 Update 70, which distributive is available on this link
- Set the JAVA_HOME environment variable (for JBoss application server)
- Unpack archive file and go to the bin directory
- Run standalone.sh
- Surf to http://localhost:8080/wfe
- Enter the system. Login: Administrator. Password: wf. The login and password are case sensitive.
You can find more detailed information in Installation guide
Project RunaWFE on sourceforge.
Runa Consulting Group (russian).
BPMS.ru (russian).
YourKit supports open source projects with its full-featured Java Profiler. YourKit, LLC is the creator of YourKit Java Profiler, innovative and intelligent tools for profiling Java and .NET applications.
|Runa WFE won a diploma at the Java technology contest conducted by Sun Microsystems and the IT and Communications Ministry of Russia.
|Runa WFE won a Honorable Mention at JBoss Innovation Award status in two categories: Business Process Management and Information Storage.


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Matthew Perry mocks Angus T. Jones' now-infamous YouTube rant against Two and a Half Men in a new Funny or Die video, but the Friends alum also takes a few big shots at himself.
In the video, posted Thursday, Perry urges the public not to watch his NBC comedy Go On because it's a "complete abomination with terrible morals." Perry then reminds viewers that he started this trend long before Jones — when he had a spiritual awakening of the Jewish variety back in 2006 and told people to stop watching Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip. "Now that video was very successful. No one watched that show," he says of the commercial flop from Aaron Sorkin.
Check out celebrities' dramatic weight loss
However, Perry's video is interrupted by his Go On co-star Brett Gelman, who gets Perry to apologize by bribing him with Percocets (Perry suffered an addition to pain killers in the '90s and early aughts.)
Watch the full video:


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Show All Answers
Yes, you can pay online at www.cityofhewitt.com. Click on Pay Online under the picture and then Utilities Payment on the next page. You will need to enter your account number and customer pin number which can be found on the top right corner of your water bill. From the drop down box, you can choose to either make a one time payment or register for additional services. Registering for additional services means that you are choosing to be set up on a bank draft, which will draft the day your bill is due each month from your banking account or credit card.
Make sure no water is being used in the house including dishwashers, showers or washing machine. Go out to the meter and check the digital register. If register is not active, shine a bright light on it. If there is a continuous flow of water, an arrow or faucet will appear on the register.
Some months have 31 days and when a month has five Fridays, there are extra days in the billing period, but you will only be billed twelve times per year.
Please pay online at www.cityofhewitt.com or pay in person in our office by 4pm and the city will reconnect service between 1pm and 4pm. There is a reconnection fee of $50.00. If payment is made after 4pm, service will be reconnected the next business day between 1pm and 4pm.


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Kansas 2018/2019 ARC-CO Payments
Actual Payments are taken from Farm Service Agency's website HERE They reflect a per acre payment made on payment acres (85% of base acres in that commodity). Sequestration is not included.
Click "Full Screen" in the lower right to see a larger version of the map. Hover your cursor over the county of interest to see more detail. Use the dropdown menu on the right side of the map to select your Crop and Yield Type. Use the controls in the upper left side of the map to zoom in or out, center the material of interest or to select a certain area of the map.
Questions may be directed to Robin Reid, 785.532.0964 or email@example.com; or Rich Llewelyn:email@example.com


text:
Great standard car of the day. colors are either green shown, tan or gray
I can also weatherize for an additional $5. Simply select this option below. I will dull the shine, add dirt & grime to areas like fenders, wheels and grill to help give that extra bit of detail for more authenticity.
Additional Information
|1957 Bel Air
O-Scale: (1957 Bel Air) – $12, O-Scale: WEATHERIZED (1957 Bel Air) – $17


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Internal French Folding Room Dividers
Internal Folding French Room divider sets, with folding sidelights which allow the doors and sidelights to be folded right back against the wall.View Range
Internal bifold doors or, as they are also known, roomfold doors, are an attractive way of creating a sense of intimacy in larger open plan rooms.View Range
These interior bi-fold doors allow you to choose bigger door panels to cover a wide range of structural openings, from 1228mm up to 4600mm, and are supplied with all you need for the complete installation (excludes handle and latch).View Range
This is another popular range of interior NUVU Roomfold bi folding sliding doors from the Express Doors Direct range. These contemporary solid white primed shaker glazed doors are supplied in a high quality white primed finish with a glazing pattern that adds to that contemporary look.
Available in 3, 4 5 and 6 door systems, using slimline 15", 16.5" or 18", or standard 21", 24" or 27" internal doors you ensure that installation is made simple with no planing of doors on site and a simple installation routine to follow to assemble the doors and frame in the opening. Please note SLIMLINE doors have 60mm door stiles to allow for more glass, standard doors have 110mm
To decide on the best solution of which interior bifolding doors are for you, take time to review the opening sizes and product sizes available before selecting the option to buy.
This top hung system, ensures you do not need any tracking at floor level, and consists of Frame pack, doors, hinges, running hardware and head track and is provided in an easy to assemble kit. The frame packs are always supplied in unfinished oak, to allow you to choose the decoration of your choice to match skirtings and architraves.
Please refer to our storage and decorating recomendations before installing these bifold doors. All our systems are offered without handles or drop bolts to allow you to match existing ironmongery in your room.
If you require any specialist advice or information regarding any of our products, please call us on 0115 838 9905.
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Stock indexes slip on Wall Street in early trading as hope fades for a quick deal on Greece
Stocks are opening lower on Wall Street as a deal to rescue the Greek economy now looks much less certain than it had just one day ago.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 50 points to 12,765 shortly after the opening bell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off seven at 1,372 and the Nasdaq composite gave up 24 points to 2,881.
In Europe, finance ministers postponed desperately needed aid for Greece. European stock markets fell and the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain, two other economically troubled countries, rose as investors sold their bonds.
Microsoft slumped 4 percent following the sudden departure of the head of its Windows division. The shakeup came just weeks after Microsoft launched Windows 8, which was met with mixed reviews.


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Le Tourment Vert Absinthe Review
Hail the "holy trinity"! Last week I had the pleasure to meet the faces behind Le Tourment Vert (www.letourmentvert.com) and experience their vision of what this wonderful spirit offers after such a long hiatus from our shores. This Absinthe is handcrafted in small batches by Bruno Delannoy of Vinet Ege and combines fourteen herbs to create a truly inspirational blend. Moving beyond the ritualistic, yet fun, Classic and Bohemian Method of enjoying Absinthe, Le Tourment … Read more


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Acclaimed pianist Van Cliburn
Van Cliburn helped to improve relations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
In Waco on a fall afternoon in the late 1950s, a tall, slender 23-year-old with a thatch of blond hair and impossibly long fingers stepped onto the Baylor Bears football practice field. A newspaper photographer had him pose with two fellow East Texans, quarterback Buddy Humphrey and fullback Larry Hickman, both from Kilgore.
The third Kilgorite in the photograph on that long-ago afternoon was no budding wide receiver or signal-calling successor to Humphrey.
He was, in fact, the most famous pianist in the world at the time, the electrifying winner just a few months earlier of the International Tchaikovsky Competition in Moscow. A football field may have been just as foreign to Van Cliburn as Moscow during the Cold War, and yet the easy congeniality and the inclination not to take himself too seriously would become a Cliburn trademark.
Cliburn, who died Feb. 27 at his home in Fort Worth, certainly took his music seriously. The piano prodigy began taking lessons from his mother at age 3, won a statewide piano competition at 12 - the prize was a performance with the Houston Symphony - and astounded the world with his Moscow triumph in 1958.
The Russians idolized the tall Texan, and Cliburn felt an ardent affection for them, as well. Tim Page, writing in the Washington Post, recalled what Cliburn later said about the people he met on his first visit: "I was just so involved with the sweet and friendly people who were so passionate about music. They reminded me of Texans."
In May 1958, Time magazine put him on its cover with a banner that read "The Texan Who Conquered Russia." The only classical musician ever honored with a ticker-tape parade in New York, he was as famous as Elvis for a time.
Always, though, it was the music that was paramount, not himself, whether he was playing concerts (which he did sparingly after 1978) or helping pave the way for young musicians by lending his name to the Van Cliburn International Piano Competition.
Van Cliburn was 78 when he died. His devotion to music was as deep and unstinting as when he played for his mother back in Kilgore three-quarters of a century earlier.
"Music is enough for a lifetime," he often said, "but a lifetime is not enough for music."


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As the Web 2.0 model has shifted to content being generated by users (often referred to as "crowdsourcing") as opposed to administrators, it's presented a somewhat novel problem of proofing the contributions of the masses.
The "Bewildered Herd" is a term attributed to Walter Lippmann who is one of the early scholars of journalism and public relations. Lippmann's contention was that the public was essentially too inept to govern itself and needed to have smart people make up its mind for it in order for society to function. To wit:
"The public must be put in its place, so that it may exercise its own powers, but no less and perhaps even more, so that each of us may live free of the trampling and the roar of a bewildered herd."
(Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion, 1922)
Crowdsourcing (originated by Jeff Howe of Wired) is explained by Clay Shirky below:
On the whole, user-generated contributions are amazingly effective and have accomplished a powerful amount of the work in building the Internet. There are, though, occasionally problems. Here are some of the sites I try to watch regularly for inaccuracies and misinformation:
- Chacha.com
- Google Local
- Yahoo Answers
- eHow.com
- WikiHow.com
- Superpages.com
- Wikipedia.org
- Google Sidewiki
Which crowdsourcing sites do you monitor for inaccuracies?


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As a child, Tanya Hernandez traveled between the United States and Latin America and noticed the commonalities in how people of African descent were stereotyped and limited across the Americas. Now a professor of law at Fordham University, Hernandez focuses her research on Latin America and just published the book Racial Subordination in Latin America: The Role of the State, Customary Law, and the New Civil Rights Response.
She discusses the similarities between racial discrimination in the United States and Latin America and how her research can help identify ways to promote diversity in the workplace.
Can you explain the type of racial discrimination you study in your book Racial Subordination in Latin America?
The book examines all forms of social exclusion that persons of African ancestry experience in Latin America, including workplace discrimination, housing discrimination, public accommodations segregation and educational discrimination. What has been distinctive about racial exclusion in Latin America is that it has often not taken the form of officially enacted laws of racial segregation as experienced particularly in the United States with Jim Crow in the South. Instead, customary law — the enforcement of unwritten laws established by long usage rather than legislative enactment — has been used as a tool of racial exclusion in Latin America.
How would you compare the situation in Latin America with racial discrimination presently in the U.S.?
The U.S.'s growing mythology about being a "post-racial" nation has many parallels with Latin America. The early U.S. civil rights movement was astonishingly successful at making the goal of racial equality a stated national norm and catalyzing government programs designed to provide concrete access to jobs and education. However, the movement's very success contributes to the notion that blacks and other persons of color no longer require legal assistance in accessing equal opportunity.
Indeed, President Obama's 2008 election is viewed as the culmination of U.S. racial transcendence, so much that now the United States presents itself as "racially innocent" in much the same way Latin America has long claimed to be because of its absence of official Jim Crow racial segregation laws. At the same time neither region has eradicated systemic racism, as evidenced by the longstanding institutional racial disparities in employment, educational attainment, access to health care and capital, residential segregation, and disparate incarcerations and conviction rates across the Americas.
Do you see similar types of discrimination that manifest themselves in the workplace?
In the workplace, racial barriers can often be more overt in Latin America. It is not uncommon to see employers mandate the racially coded "buena apariencia" (good appearance) requirement for hiring that is a well-known euphemism for white skin color and European phenotype and hair texture. Furthermore, even when explicit racial barriers are not imposed, the unconscious biases of employers are often manifested in their stereotypes about the presumed inadequacy of Afro-descended applicants.
As a professor at Fordham's law school, what is the role of law in all of this? Is law helpful in promoting diversity?
Law can be very helpful in addressing racial exclusion and furthering diversity. In those countries in Latin America in which the state has been the most involved in enacting anti-discrimination legislation and developing race-based affirmative action policies, there has been the most progress in the level of workplace and educational diversity. Brazil provides the starkest example of such progress aided through anti-discrimination law and public policy.
At businesses, would you recommend the same types of strict laws to promote diversity? Or is there another approach?
Strict laws are most effective at promoting diversity because they provide employers with clear parameters. While many employers may be well-intentioned and prefer to operate under a purely voluntary scheme for promoting diversity, the U.S. and Latin American context are both replete with examples of how unconscious biases can still obstruct even the most well-intentioned employers.
Jeffrey Cattel is an editorial intern at Diversity Executive magazine. He can be reached at email@example.com.


text:
Do you serve pre-med, nursing, or health sciences students? Do you have faculty or students asking for help on how to identify the latest research on a given health topic? Need a refresher on PubMed so you can effectively aid your users with their literature searching? Then join us on Wednesday, February 8, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. Central) for a one-hour online session presented by Rebecca Brown, a trainer for the National Library of Medicine Training Center, Spencer S. Eccles Health Sciences Library. Rebecca will discuss how to keep current with changes in PubMed, tips on how to use many of PubMed's special features, explain and explore PubMed's controlled vocabulary (MeSH), and more! Also learn whom you can contact to get help when you are stumped with a search.
Here are the details:
- "Refresh and Extend Your Health Literature Search Skills to Better Support your Users: PubMed Update" webinar
- Date: Wednesday, February 8, 2012
- Time: 10:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. Central)
- Presenter: Rebecca Brown, National Library of Medicine Training Center
- Be sure to read the equipment requirements and login information prior to the start of the webinar.
- Questions? Contact Todd Vandenbark, Web Services Librarian, Spencer S. Eccles Health Sciences Library, 801-581-5263, email:


text:
|Version 98 (modified by IlariaBrivio, 22 months ago) (diff)
Standard Model Effective Field Theory -- The SMEFTsim package
Ilaria Brivio, Yun Jiang and Michael Trott
email@example.com, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.com
NBIA and Discovery Center, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
The model description
The Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) is constructed out of a series of SU(3)C × SU(2)L × U(1)Y invariant higher dimensional operators L(6), L(7), ... built out of the SM fields.
The SMEFTsim package provides a complete implementation of the lepton and baryon number conserving dimension-6 Lagrangian adopting the Warsaw basis arXiv:1008.4884
The SM Lagrangian is included and extended with the SM loop-induced Higgs couplings to gg, γγ and Zγ.
The SMEFTsim package provides implementations for 3 different flavor symmetry assumptions and 2 input scheme choices.
The flavor symmetry assumptions adopted are (see arXiv:1709.06492 for a detailed description)
- The flavour general case
- The U(3)5 flavor symmetric case, with non-SM CP-violating phases
- A linear Minimal flavor violation (MFV) ansatz arXiv:0207036, in which non-SM CP-violating effects are neglected, but linear flavor-violating spurion insertions are allowed in quark currents
For each model it is free to choose between two input parameters sets for the electroweak sector, namely:
- α scheme: {αew, mZ , Gf}
- mW scheme: {mW, mZ , Gf}
Importantly, field rotations required to have canonically normalized kinetic terms and parameter redefinitions following from the choice of an input parameters set are automatically applied in the Lagrangian.
Two independent models sets (A and B) are supplied. Each set contains a main file, a number of subroutines and restriction files.
The two sets differ in the structure and in the technical implementation of L(6), but they produce consistent results. The use of both sets is recommended for debugging and validation of the numerical results.
Pre-exported UFO files to be interfaced with MadGraph5_aMC@NLO can also be downloaded from this page (see Table below).
We would appreciate if you could report to us any inconsistency or bugs.
Usage recommendations
The SMEFTsim package is designed to enable numerical studies of the LO interference of the SMEFT with the SM, while neglecting NLO corrections. In this spirit, it has not been optimized for loop calculations in the SM or in the SMEFT. In particular:
- the Lagrangian assumes unitary gauge. Using it in Rξ or Feynman gauge may lead to inconsistent results, as the ghost Lagrangian has not been modified to account for L(6) corrections.
- the UFO files are not equipped for NLO evaluation in MadGraph5_aMC@NLO
Numerical files in the WCxf format (https://wcxf.github.io) can be translated into a param_card for SMEFTsim using the dedicated command-line script now available in the WCxf package.
Related bugs and threads
The most recent version of SMEFTsim requires MadGraph5_aMC@NLO v2.6.1.
If still experiencing errors, please refer to the following threads or contact us.
Change log
Note that the version number adopted in two model Sets is independent.
set A - v2.1 (14.12.2018)
- all the restriction cards have been modified to include the tau lepton mass (also in the massless limit) and replacing the values 0 and 1 respectively with 1e-99 and 9.999999e-01.
This prevents the parameters restricted to 0 or 1 from disappearing in the param_card of generated processes, allowing to modify their value at a later stage.
set A - v2.1 (20.03.2018)
- restriction files added to MFV and U(3)5 UFOs
set A - v2.1 (13.03.2018)
- a mistake in the dependence of dGf on cll, cll' has been corrected in the U(3)5 an MFV models.
The correct expression is δGF = GF ( cHl(3) − Cll' / 2 ) (Eq. (3.3) in the paper should be modified accordingly)
set A - v2.0 (07.02.2018)
- fixed bug with complex Wilson coefficient
- Wilson coefficient of the operator O_HD renamed: cHD > cHDD to avoid conflict with cHd
- SM radiative couplings of the Higgs (hgg, haa, haz) assigned the corresponding QCD, QED orders, plus a dedicated SMHLOOP=1 interaction order.
- idle parameter ceeAbs2332 removed in the flavor general models
- further restrictions for top physics added to the flavor general, alpha scheme UFO.
Set B - v1.3 (06.02.2018)
- The cutoff scale Lambda has been introduced explicitly and assigned the proper InteractionOrder? with the corresponding change made for Gf and vev parameters.
- Typo in the definition of dlam is corrected.
- Minor bugs with the color structure constant appearing in the QG and QGtilde operators fixed.
v1.2 (24.11.2017)
- set A: LSMshifted renamed into LSMlinear for consistency with set B
v1.1 (20.10.2017)
- restriction cards topEFT added to each UFO and to the FeynRules source. They assume massless light fermions and set to 0 coefficients that are not relevant for top quark physics.
- set A: bug with operators QHu, QHd, QHud, QHq1, QHq3 in the MFV UFO files fixed.
- set B: bug with operators QHq(1) in FLU model and bugs with operators QHu, QHd, QHq(1), QHq(3), QHl(1) in MFV UFO files fixed.
v1.0 (19.09.2017)
- The first version released
- I. Brivio, Y. Jiang and M. Trott, The SMEFTsim package, theory and tools, JHEP 1712 (2017) 070 arXiv:1709.06492
- J. Aebischer, I. Brivio, A. Celis, J. Evans, Y. Jiang, J. Kumar, X. Pan, W. Porod, J. Rosiek, D. Shih, F. Staub, D. Straub, D. Dyk, A. Vicente, WCxf: an exchange format for Wilson coefficients beyond the Standard Model, arXiv:1712.05298
Model Set A
- SMEFTsim-setA-v2.1.tar.gz This archive contains all the FeynRules files.
- SMEFTsim-setA.nb Example of a Mathematica® notebook loading the model
Model Set B
In the master code two flags are established: Scheme and Flavor, which are used to identify the input scheme and flavor assumption being adopted in loading the model.
- SMEFTsim-setB_v13.zip This archive contains all the model files. Should be expanded in the FR model directory.
- SMEFTsim-setB_v13.nb Example of a Mathematica® notebook loading the model. Should be stored in the SMEFTsim-setB model folder.
Pre-exported UFO files (include restriction cards)
|Set A
|Set B (v 1.3)
|α scheme
|mW scheme
|α scheme
|mW scheme
|Flavor general SMEFT
Attachments (31)
- SMEFTsim-setB.zip (55.4 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setB.nb (97.6 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_general_alphaScheme_UFO.tar.gz (395.2 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_general_MwScheme_UFO.tar.gz (395.2 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_alphaScheme_UFO.tar.gz (264.4 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_MwScheme_UFO.tar.gz (264.3 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_alphaScheme_UFO.tar.gz (97.4 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_MwScheme_UFO.tar.gz (97.3 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setA.zip (50.5 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_alpha_UFO.zip (1.1 MB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_alpha_MFV_UFO.zip (414.1 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_alpha_FLU_UFO.zip (309.7 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_mW_UFO.zip (763.5 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_mW_MFV_UFO.zip (413.8 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFT_mW_FLU_UFO.zip (198.6 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setB_v13.nb (468.6 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setB_v13.zip (116.8 KB) - added by YunJiang 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_alphaScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (266.0 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_MwScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (266.2 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_alphaScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (101.4 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_MwScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (97.9 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setA_v2.tar.gz (45.4 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setA.nb (1.3 MB) - added by IlariaBrivio 3 years ago.
- SMEFTsim-setA-v2.1.tar.gz (46.2 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 2 years ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_alphaScheme_UFO_v2.1.tar.gz (266.5 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_MFV_MwScheme_UFO_v2.1.tar.gz (265.5 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_alphaScheme_UFO_v2.1.tar.gz (100.9 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_U35_MwScheme_UFO_v2.1.tar.gz (284.8 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_general_alphaScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (1.3 MB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.
- SMEFTsim_A_general_MwScheme_UFO_v2.tar.gz (523.5 KB) - added by IlariaBrivio 22 months ago.


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Martinez returns to Mets
The New York Mets today announced that they have selected the contract of Buffalo Bisons OF FERNANDO MARTINEZ. He will fill the roster spot that opened when the Mets placed OF Willie Harris on the paternity leave list for the birth of his child.
Martinez has played 45 games with the Bisons this season and hit .266 (42-158) with six doubles, six home runs, 23RBI and 21 runs scored. He has made 33 starts in right field for the Bisons and six as the club's designated hitter this season.
For Martinez, this will be his second stint with New York this season. The outfielder was with the Mets from May 12-29.


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For this card, I inked the tag with Peeled Paint Distress Ink and then wicked it with water. I inked the white flowers with red ink and then attached some HA buttons in the center. I tied a bow and added a sentiment to finish the tag and attached it to a HA kraft card after embossing it with the cuttlebug.
Card #2:
Card #3:
For this card, I applied a flower mask then heavily inked the bottom with black ink and worked my way up the tag with less ink to create a lighter look on the top. Then I removed the mask, added a sentiment and a few pearls. I attached the tag to a HA kraft card after embossing it with the cuttlebug.
Card #4:
For this card, I inked the polka dot patterned paper with Purple Distress Ink changing the look completely. Here is the paper before I inked it...Then I tied some purple string around the patterned paper and added a sentiment. Then I inked the tag with yellow ink and then stamped with a HA flourish stamp in purple. Finally, I inked the tag edges with purple and attached it to a HA kraft card after embossing it with the cuttlebug.
Supply List for all cards:
Flower Mask- Heidi Swapp
Stamps, Notecards, Buttons, Flowers, Pearls-Hero Arts
Patterned Paper-Bo Bunny
Brads-Li'l Davis
Ink: Ranger (Tim Holtz-Distress Ink), VersaMark, Memories Ink
Other: Tags and String
Thanks for stopping by. Be sure to check out Jennifer's blog HERE for more info on her Thinking Inking Class. I promise you will have so much fun and your inky fingers will be worth it! lol


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I found this great pattern by Chrochetology here: Hairbands Appropriating Hat Patterns
This is her original versionn and her original picture. You can see how it looks on the head. I think it´s very pretty:
Instead of the grapes I made the rose brooch so I can war the headband with or without the flower.
I used 100% Mercerized Cotton and a 2,5mm Hook.
31 grams for the headband and 19 grams for the rose.


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Columbia, MO - Kamiko Williams had a big first half and five Lady Vols scored in double figures, but No. 9/10 Tennessee could not overcome Missouri's sharp shooting in a 80-63 loss to the Tigers on Sunday at Mizzou Arena.
Tennessee (17-5, 8-1 SEC) suffered its first conference loss of the season and committed 18 turnovers. Missouri (15-8, 4-5 SEC) used a second-half surge to cap a strong day of shooting and earn its first-ever win against the Lady Vols.
The Tigers shot 52.7 percent (29-of-55) from the field, 45.8 percent (11-of-24) from 3-point range and 84.6 percent (11-of-13) from the line while dishing out 23 assists to UT's six. The Lady Vols shot 41.8 percent (23-of-55) and struggled from long distance (5-of-14) and at the charity stripe (12-of-20).
Missouri's Morgan Eye led all players with 26 points, including a 6-of-12 effort from beyond the arc. Brianna Kulas added had 20 points, five boards, five assists and three steals in an impressive all-around effort. Liz Smith found points inside for the Tigers and finished with 10 points.
Williams led UT in scoring 14 first-half points on 7-of-9 shooting before an injury sidelined her in the second half. She also amassed six rebounds, two assists, three steals and one block. Taber Spani had 12 points and four rebounds and Meighan Simmons finished with 13 points. Bashaara Graves and Ariel Massengale had 11 points and 10 points, respectively.
Kulas' layup with 6:11 remaining opened a 10-1 Tigers run capped off by two free throws by Lianna Doty with just over four minutes left. Missouri's lead grew to 70-54, its largest of the game until the closing seconds. A two-point jumper by Simmons would bring Tennessee to within nine points at 76-63 with 2:33 remaining, but the Lady Vols would come no closer.
Missouri's attack was efficient and effective as the Tigers used a 10-minute, 21-10 run to climb out to a 58-47 advantage with 9:34 remaining. Eye hit three treys and scored 11 points over that stretch.
Williams came down awkwardly on her right leg at the 17:00 mark of the second half following a layup by Smith. She was helped off the court by the UT athletic training staff and did not return.
Williams has a right ankle injury and is listed as day to day, as is freshman Jasmine Jones, who suffered a right knee injury late in the game.
Both teams came out of the break with the same tenacity that made for a back-and-forth first half. A 3-pointer by MU's Kyley Simmons 15 seconds into the second period knotted the game at 37-37.
Tennessee had a 37-34 lead at halftime after a tightly-contested first period that featured eight lead changes. Williams was dominant on both ends of the floor in the first half, shooting 7-of-9 for 14 points with two assists, six boards and three steals. Eye led the Tigers with 11 points, including nine from long distance.
The Lady Vols held the lead for the final five minutes of the first half. But for every bucket down the stretch, the Tigers had an answer to stay within five points. In the final five minutes before the break, Williams made two jumpers and had an assist on another to keep UT (15-of-32 in the first half) ahead of a strong-shooting Mizzou squad (14-of-28).
Both teams began dialing it up from long distance at the 8:22 mark. Eye, Mizzou's top 3-point shooter, caught fire and scored all eight points of an 8-2 Tigers run, including two shots from beyond the arc to push MU ahead, 24-21. Spani, one of UT's best sharpshooters, answered with a pair of 3-pointers on UT's next two possessions to give the Lady Vols a 27-24 lead with 5:37 left in the half.
During a 1:40 stretch midway through the first half, Williams and Smith began trading baskets in a one-point game. Each scored four points with Smith nailing a turnaround jumper at 9:49 to give the Tigers a 16-15 edge. After a timeout, Williams hit a pull-up jumper from the free-throw line in transition to push Tennessee ahead, 17-16.
Down 6-4 three minutes into the game, Missouri seized early momentum with an 8-2 run sparked by a Liene Priede's 3-pointer at 16:53. Simmons helped Tennessee settled down and climb back with a 3-pointer at the 12:27 mark to draw the Lady Vols to within 12-11. Simmons hit two free throws after a technical foul was called on Mizzou coach Robin Pingeton, giving UT a 13-12 lead.
The Lady Vols will next travel to Baton Rouge, La., to play LSU on Thursday, Feb. 7, at 8:00 PM. Tennessee returns to Thompson-Boling Arena on Sunday, Feb. 10, to host Ole Miss at 1:00 PM and begin a three-game homestand.
Courtesy Lady Vols Media Relations


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Speaking of the judges, we asked whether she got a chance to talk to Nicole Scherzinger, the visibly upset judge who caused the deadlock, after the show. The answer was yes and she saw Nicole crying really hard backstage. Rachel said she was really sad and asked Nicole why she was crying. According to Rachel, Nicole answered, Honey, I didnt mean to send you home. And what did the old soul in the 13-year old body say to Nicole? She told her, "It was okay. It was meant to be.
Am I the only one who don't care if Rachel went home?I thought she was a snob since Day 1 and didn't really felt much when she left. No doubt she's a good singer, but she needs to humble up a little. Hopefully this experience will humble her by a little.I am sad that a talent like her went home, but at the same time.. I felt she caused her own demise by being not "appealing" to the viewers for her behaviour and everything. I know she's young... so I say she can take this as a learning experience.
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text: The Nerd Parent's Guide: When and how to introduce your kids to Star Wars May 7, '12 Comments [50] Posted in Daddy Sponsored By Let me start by saying I'm not a big Star Wars guy. I enjoyed the films when I was growing up (I think I saw the original (Ep. 4 ANH) in 1980 along with Empire Strikes Back in 1980) but I haven't thought much about them since. That said, I appreciate the films and I like movies in general. Watching movies with my kids (usually Pixar movies) have brought us a lot of shared joy as a family. However, Star Wars are fun and classics and we wanted to share them with our kids in a way that worked for everyone given their age and our parenting style. TL;DR Version Show Star Wars to your kids when you think they can discuss and analyze the themes appropriate. That might be 5, it might be 10. They're your kids. Don't forget you can skip parts. Show them the movie in 20 minute segments and make it a serial adventure rather than a movie. Show the films in "Machete Order" which is episodes 4,5,2,3,6. This maintains surprises while ending on a high note. Yes, episode 1 is hacked out and not shown. You can show it at the end of it all along with the Clone Wars cartoons and bill them as supplemental material. Consider Harmy's Despecialized Version fan edit or the Star Wars: Revisited fan edit. Make the films an event with crafts and discussion of mythology rather than just dumping in on their little brains. You Stayed to Read it All Version We are extremely conscious of our two boys' "screen time." They don't use the computer or play video games and they can watch TV on "show days." Show Days for us are Tues, Friday and Saturday when they can watch 20-30 minutes of TV. That adds up to about 90 minutes of screen time a week. We'd rather they dance around, dig in the dirt and play, which they do very well. The boys watch Wild Kratts, Super Hero Squad and a few other kids' shows. They are 4 and a half and 6 and a half. Lately the topic - actually more the mythology - of Star Wars has been coming up. "Daddy, who is Dark Vader? Is he a bad guy? I heard he has a Light Saver." As both boys are in school it was inevitable that this topic would come up amongst the other kids. We're not ones to give in to peer pressure but in this case the boys seemed extremely interested in the characters, and as an extension the ideas around space, distance, planets, travel and the meta-topic of good vs. evil. The wife and I were aiming to wait until they were 6 and 8 to watch Star Wars but since the interest was so high we decided to give it a try in a very structured way. Everyone's kids are different. One 10 year old might not like the aliens in the cantina while other person's 5 year old would be fascinated by how they constructed the masks and not believe they were real aliens. Our kids tend to be "makers," and as such are always constructing and deconstructing. They also understand the idea of actors and general movie making having made small films on an iPod touch so here's how we decided as parents to introduce our two boys to Star Wars. Disclaimer: Everyone's kids are different. I'm not advocating, preaching or suggesting that you should do any of this. If some of it works for you, great, if not or if you disagree, also great. This system worked for us. 4 year old on Empire Strikes Back:"Why didn't Luke use The Force to stay warm? This makes NO sense." — Scott Hanselman (@shanselman) May 6, 2012 Structure and Time First, I watched the first 1977 Star Wars to refresh my memory about the themes and general tone. We didn't want to put two hyper little people in front of effectively what is an intense two hour chase scene that they wouldn't understand. We also wanted to see if there were some scenes that we wanted to avoid all together. My favorite site for getting into extreme detail on a film's content is Kids In Mind. I use this site before the boys and I watch anything. In this case Kids In Mind has this to say about Star Wars. Smoking skeletons are seen; many people are threatened with laser guns and sometimes are actually shot (resulting in some deaths but no blood). An arm is cut off and some blood is seen. A few scuffles and attacks, and a couple of explosions. A man is strangled and a man is lifted by his throat and then his limp body is tossed across a room. This is an excellent and short summary of the three scenes that concerned me. The arm cut off in the cantina, the skeleton at Luke's house and Vader force-choking people, as well as general lasers and chaos. We decided that we'd show them the first movie (ep. 4 ANH) in 20 minute sittings. We literally sat down, watched 20 minutes at a time then stopped it. Star Wars IV: A New Hope is 125 minutes long, so about 5 or 6 sittings. It took us two weeks to watch the movie, which was just about right. We also skipped over the severed arm in the Cantina as it's the only blood shown in the first movie and kinds of stands out in a gross way. We also implied that Luke's Aunt and Uncle ran away and the smoking husk in front of the house was a droid that was caught in the fire. These two small omissions cut out 90% of the violence that we were uncomfortable with. The rest we deal with by showing the movie in chunks as well as using each segment as an opportunity to talk about interesting topics as a family. Discussion The benefits of splitting the movie up into two weeks of six segments are many. The most significant benefit given that the audience is children was time for discussion and "cool down." Little boys LOVE action. My boys were concocting crazy scenarios with good guys, bad guys and explosions long before they even knew what a television was. They are hard-wired for action, but again, two hours of action is too much for our little people. Twenty minute segments gave the boys one effectively interesting action segment and a bunch of expository dialogue. Watching "Empire Strikes Back" with the 6 year old. Han and Leia are kissing. "Oh, man, AGAIN in this movie?!?" — Scott Hanselman (@shanselman) May 6, 2012 Each time something interesting happened or something intense happened we would pause the show and say something like "wow, why did Han do that?" This would often turn into a 10 minute discussion between us - and more often between the two boys - debating the merits of one action versus another. It also allowed the kids to connect to the story more than the action. If we got the sense that they weren't understanding the movie we would just stop it and try again in 6-12 months. No joke. There's no point showing a movie to a kid if they aren't going to understand the themes. In a fast moving films it can be hard to keep track of what's happening and who is who. Stopping every 10 minutes or so for a discussion or a feigned confused parent question like "Wait, why is that guy mad at that guy? Who are they?" gives the kids a chance to absorb the content as well as good practice in explaining complex plots to adults. Watching only 20 minutes at a time also took what would have been an intense two hour explosion and turned it into a fun weekly episodic serial with the excitement of "what will happen next?" propelling the boys through the week. More discussions and analysis continued and continues even now. The boys haven talked about good and bad, when to fight and when not to. Version There's lots of versions of Star Wars as George Lucas continues to tinker with it. The Special Editions that came out in 1997 included lots of computer graphics tweaks and changes. He continued to make changes in 2004 when Star Wars was released on DVD and again when it was released on 2011 on Blu-Ray. There have been a number of "fan edits" of Star Wars but one of the highest quality and certainly the most popular is "Harmy's Despecialized Edition." This edition takes nine different sources and merges them together into an excellent fan preservation. The Despecialized HD version is a 720 AVCHD dual-sided DVD9. Nerd on: You likely know that a DVD can hold about 5 gigs and shows films at 480p (480 horizontal lines of resolution) and a Blu-Ray can hold 25 gigs (or 50 gigs when dual later) and show films at 1080p. There was another interstitial format that is used on dual layer DVDs that can hold almost 9 gigs. The AVCHD (Advanced Video Coding High Definition) format is similar to Blu-Rays (it's a derivative, effectively) and you'll find it in many Camcorders. It originally supported 720p. You can get the Star Wars Despecialized Edition HD in an AVCHD format for a Dual Layer DVD9. This is a lovely 720p fan edit that is playable on many Blu-Ray Players. I own the original DVD boxed set as well. You are required to own a legitimate copy in order to watch a fan edit and you must never pay for a fan edit. There's box art and labels you can download to put together your own copies for the home. There's a number of nice YouTube comparison clips showing your choices so you can decide if you care or not about showing a fan-edit. We watched the Harmy Edit and at least *I* appreciated the effort and attention to details. Wife watching Star Wars for the first time: "It's that 'Hans' Solo? He was in Sabrina!" — Scott Hanselman (@shanselman) April 30, 2012 Movie Ordering We all watched the movies in the order they came out which is 4,5,6 then 1,2,3. When you're showing the Star Wars movies to a new person you have the advantage to show them the movies in whatever order you like. The most popular and well respected alternate order is Machete Order from Rod Hilton. He recommends showing the movies in this order: 4 - Star Wars: A New Hope 5 - Empire Strikes Back 2 - Attack of The Clones 3 - Revenge of the Sith 6 - Return of the Jedi You'll notice there is no film #1. That's for a number of reasons, some passionate but others logical and well-reasoned. Passion: "Episode I is a failure on every possible level. The acting, writing, directing, and special effects are all atrocious, and the movie is just plain boring. Luckily, George Lucas has done everyone a favor by making the content of Episode I completely irrelevant to the rest of the series. Seriously, think about it for a minute. Name as many things as you can that happen in Episode I and actually help flesh out the story in any subsequent episode." Logic: Every character established in Episode I is either killed or removed before it ends (Darth Maul, Qui-Gon, Chancellor Valorum), unimportant (Nute Gunray, Watto), or established better in a later episode (Mace Windu, Darth Sidious). Does it ever matter that Palpatine had an apprentice before Count Dooku? Nope, Darth Maul is killed by the end of Episode I and never referenced again. You may as well just start with the assumption that Dooku was the only apprentice. Does it ever matter that Obi-Wan was being trained by Qui-Gon? Nope, Obi-Wan is well into training Anakin at the start of Episode II, Qui-Gon is completely irrelevant. Search your feelings, you know it to be true! Episode I doesn't matter at all. He goes on to explain not only that Episode #1 doesn't matter but also that the really exciting surprises like who Luke's father is and others are maintained with this order. Given that our kids are younger, we will stop the series for a while after Attack of the Clones. Episode 3, Revenge of the Sith is super dark and the most physically violent of the films. I want to wait until I feel the boys are ready to internalize that much intensity. I suspect that will be around 10 years or, perhaps older. After that we'll pick up where we left off. You should decide on your own but it's useful to be aware or reminded how dark episode 3 really is. "Why was Obi Wan the only one who clicked his seat belt in the Millennium Falcon?" - my 6 year old — Scott Hanselman (@shanselman) April 29, 2012 We've introduced our little people to the Star Wars mythology in a slow and structured way. There's been more talking and playing in the backyard so far than actual movie watching. There's been discussions of movie making and how to make an alien mask. There's been cardboard light sabers and grappling hooks made of straws. There's been hours of discussion about character motivations, why good guys do good stuff, why bad guys do bad stuff and why Han Solo likes money and whether or not we should "mess with Yoda." Overall, my wife and I are happy with the results. I hope this post helps you and your kids jump into Star Wars. I'm off now to deal with the burning question in our household this week: "Who took Chewbacca's pants?" « Introducing Workspace Reloader - A Visua... | Blog Home | The Floppy Disk means Save, and 14 other... » About Scott Scott Hanselman is a former professor, former Chief Architect in finance, now speaker, consultant, father, diabetic, and Microsoft employee. He is a failed stand-up comic, a cornrower, and a book author. About Newsletter Sponsored By Hosting By Comments [50] Share on: Twitter, Facebook, Google+ or use the Permalink


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A couple weeks, ago we ran an additional test of our long exposure settings on VMC. This time, we we upped the image exposure to 30 seconds.
Just like with our Phobos images, its best to have a target to look at and for this test we used Jupiter.
We found that, not only was Jupiter visible on just a 2-second exposure, but on the longer ones Jupiter was also visible together with the two twins of Gemini, Pollux and Castor.
So in this set we have our first image of a planet other than Mars and also our first confirmed imaging of stars!
The full image set along with all our other VMC images are in our Flickr channel.


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Donetsk, Ukraine
By Marko Djurica
"You have got to meet the Mexican," said Wolf.
"Who is the Mexican?" I asked.
"He is our boss, you can ask him about this barricade, come with me."
Wolf was dressed in a green uniform without any insignia. "Donbass" – the eastern Ukrainian region where pro-Russian separatists seem to be increasingly gaining control – had been written on his green helmet in permanent marker.


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Five more states have been granted relief from key requirements of the Bush-era No Child Left Behind law, bringing the total to 24 states given waivers, an Obama administration official said Friday.
Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Utah and Virginia will be freed from the No Child Left Behind requirement that all students test proficient in math and science by 2014, a goal the nation remains far from achieving.
In exchange, the states and all others granted waivers must develop accountability plans that set new targets for raising achievement, advancing teacher effectiveness, preparing all students for careers and college, and improving the performance of low-performing schools.
"We all understand that the best ideas don't come from Washington, and moving forward, these states will have increased flexibility with federal funds and relief from NCLB's mandates, allowing them to develop locally-tailored solutions to meet their unique educational challenges,'' Education Secretary Arne Duncan said in draft remarks released to The Associated Press.
Democrats and Republicans agree the No Child Left Behind law is broken, but have been unable to agree on how to fix it. The law has been praised for shining a light on the performance of subgroups like minorities, low-income, English language learner and special education students, but also has led to an increasing number of schools being labeled as ``failing'' and subject to a prescribed set of interventions _ even if just one of these groups didn't meet learning targets.
Critics of the law also say it has had the unintended effect of encouraging instructors to teach to the test and has led schools to narrow their curriculums.
Duncan and the White House have pushed for a comprehensive reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, but there has been little movement in Congress over the past two years. After Duncan warned that 82 percent of schools could be labeled ``failing'' _ a figure many said was inflated, but nonetheless agreed to be rising _ the Obama administration announced last year that states could apply for waivers. Republicans have charged that the president with overreaching his authority and imposing his vision for education on the states.
The five states approved for waivers Friday were among 26 states that submitted requests for flexibility in February. The Education Department announced waivers for eight of those states in May. Another 13 are still under review. Waivers for the first 11 were granted in February.


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Hello everyone
I have a problem as I built a drag-drop gui appilcation using netbeans, and I wand to add some drawings (using filloval or so) but I have no Idea about how to do so with the generated code of the netbeans.
also I know how to do it in normal hand build gui, but I am asking about the drag-drop gui of netbeans.
Thanks in advance


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Kerry warns North Korea on nuke test
- North Korea has said it will conduct its third nuclear test soon
- North Korea launched a satellite into space in December
- Kerry has favored engaging North Korea in the past
Newly designated New Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea against moving forward with an anticipated new nuclear test that the Obama administration and its predecessors have failed to stop despite numerous pacts, sanctions and threats.
Kerry, a Massachusetts senator who replaced Hillary Rodham Clinton, joined with South Korea and Japan in calling on the North to cease its "provocative behavior" or face "significant consequences from the international community" in a statement Sunday.
But Korea watchers and experts say Kerry will need to raise far more specific threats to improve on the West's history of making deals that North Korea rarely abides by for long.
"There's a reluctance in the White House to have a deal with North Korea only to have it repudiated again," said James Acton, an expert on nuclear non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"But President Obama knew Kerry's interest in engagement when he nominated him, and presidents are usually willing to take greater risk in their second term," he said on Monday.
Kerry penned an opinion piece in 2011 in which he criticized the administration for its "inadequate" response to North Korea's continual flouting of agreements with the USA to end its nuclear and missile programs, and its unprovoked attacks on South Korea.
His recommended solution was to abandon the talks involving many nations and North Korea pursued by the Bush and Clinton administrations. The idea of the multi-party talks was to have the North feel the pressure from a unified front of nations that sanction it by curbing food and monetary aid.
But Kerry advised that direct talks between the USA and North Korea alone would be best, starting out with talks on missing U.S. servicemen in the Korea War as a way to begin discussions that could lead to weightier matters
Time may not be on his side, experts say.
North Korea has said it will soon conduct its third test of a nuclear bomb, after launching a satellite into space in December. If North Korea masters a delivery system for nuclear weapons, it would join Russia and China as the only non-U.S. allies with such capabilities.
Victor Cha, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it was important for him to show that his first statement on North Korea was in conjunction with Japan and South Korea.
"Everyone's worried about another test and it's important for the three allies to be on the record and state very clearly and in unambiguous terms that they're going to seek the most severe sanctions they can seek," said Cha, who served at the National Security Council under former president George W. Bush.
Cha cautioned that there is not much the United States and its allies can do to alter North Korea's behavior in the short term. He says the best way remains to convince China to take steps against its ally that would force the North to notice.
Cha suggests persuading China to shut down trade inside China that benefits the North, or withhold shipments of food and heating oil supplied by China. China could also better enforce sanctions it has already approved against the smuggling of technology by the North's space agency, Cha said.
Acton said ending the North Korea nuclear program is practically impossible, "short of invading the country and physically stopping them from testing."
North Korea has received economic aid from past deals it made with the United States in return for ending its nuclear program and complying with international treaties to open up its facilities for inspections. It took the aid, then secretly continued its programs until tests and intelligence made it apparent it had violated the pacts.
Bruce Bechtol, a former Pentagon intelligence analyst who teaches at the U.S. Army War College, said it really is not up to the United States solely to alter the North's behavior. He said Kerry's instructions from Obama will likely be to work closely with the South Koreans and have them set the tone.
Incoming South Korean president, Park Geun Hye, a conservative, campaigned on a policy of engagement with North Korea but with measurable concessions from it as well.
"We're likely to see not much of a change at all from Hillary Clinton," Bechtol said. "Because our president is the same and his goal will be to stick by the South Korean president."