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Coming to you for the first time, the premier of our short form corporate documentary. A version of this will run on public television this year, while a shorter segment will air during Fox Business News during the month of June. Let us know if you see it!
|Its worth noting, 2018 could've been much worse. We careened into the year smarting from a horrendous hurricane season – one of the most expensive in US history – with the US President and Kim Jong Un hurling literal nuclear twitter threats at each other. So before we get too pessimistic, let's be thankful for small miracles (and military restraint). Nonetheless, beneath those big big-ticket stories, a lot happened that's worth considering as we look ahead to 2019.
Over the last several weeks, as we built our 2019 outlook and considered 2018 in retrospect, the two words that most resonated were nationalism and technology. These two concepts are sending us into 2019 with a thorny set of problems to solve. And they are changing the world – literally – faster than we can account for it. And so, it is through consideration of these concepts that we should also think about what they mean for the future. And before we lament over the major downsides of what is happening (because we are risk managers after all), it's imperative that we recognize that no matter which side of these debates we sit on – the world is changing, mostly, because the old systems, as most seem to agree, were broken. And thus, new ideas and new solutions are needed.
Growing Nationalism
Over the past several years, a tide of nationalism has risen across much of the globe. Elections in Europe have ushered in new, far right, populist administrations in countries such as Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland. These wins at the polls reflect electorates that have grown increasingly skeptical of the benefits to European Union membership and weary of the migrant populations that have entered their borders – migrants fleeing war, starvation and economic inequality. Perceived as stealing jobs, draining welfare systems, altering culture and demographics, and posing threats to every day security. Similar emotions have emerged in the United States, where the administration has campaigned upon, whether founded or unfounded, concerns over insecure borders and perceived risk of violent crime and terrorism by illegal immigrants. In China, a general populace whose information consumption is closely controlled and curated, has experienced spikes in patriotic, nationalist sentiment, driven by government-influenced messaging suggesting the Western world, and especially the United States, has violated its sovereign rights and taken aim at crippling its economy to prevent it inevitable ascension and historic return to leading global superpower. In Brazil, the country's newly seated president has rejected United Nations initiatives such as the Migration Pact, threatened rights of its indigenous peoples, talked of nationalizing key industries and stirred international concern over his admitted nostalgia for past periods of military rule.
While fully acknowledging that there is a fine balance between being a borderless country and being completely closed to the outside world (ala North Korea) and that there are those who view nationalism as a means of giving citizens more power to affect the trajectory of their own country's future; the level of nationalism currently facing the world has necessarily also lowered the world's ability to avoid international conflict and complicated international commerce. This perspective is encouraging countries to retreat into their own borders; attempting to protect "a way of life" by protecting against outside influences – whether through tariffs, physical and monetary barriers, immigration, rhetoric and/or psychological warfare against "the other." The unintended consequence for business is that this stymies growth, making it increasingly difficult to steer a prosperous global enterprise that holds increasing (and at times, contradictory) regulatory requirements, financial burdens and shareholder expectations. The movement has also created suspicion of brands associated with one country or another, driving away potential customers and creating new regulatory hurdles.
While there is no question that trade imbalances and considerations of economic espionage needed addressing, in 2018, new trade barriers resulted in a major re-order of global trade. The abrupt – and at times non-sensical – changes increased costs to business around the globe, threatened corporate brand and reputation and by the end of the year pushed the global economy into a downward spin that economists increasingly worry could worsen in China and the US – dragging much of the rest of the world down with them.
But it's the trust factor that is perhaps most concerning. Suspicions over spying, arrests of company executives and an increasingly pervasive sense of distrust between countries has, and will continue to, filter down to the corporate and even working level between international employees. This is not only true of US and Chinese colleagues, but also US and Russian colleagues and, as more nationalism and as protectionism grows, this may soon extend even to countries that we've traditionally treated as allies like Canada and Germany.
Rising nationalism hasn't just slowed commerce, it's led to an almost across the board increase in hate crime in the West; from the United States and Canada to Europe. In the US, hate crime targeting ethnic and racial minorities has risen steadily in the last four years with other categories of hate crime remaining relatively flat. The same is true of the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland – and if we looked deeply enough – likely nearly every other country in Western Europe.
Technology enabled bias and nationalism
Technology has changed our lives, in most ways for the better, yet has lost some of its luster to weary populations who increasingly see it as a tool to manipulate unsuspecting users – rather than as one that improves lives and livelihoods. The truth of technology innovation perhaps lies in how you look at it; but in the past several years especially, technology has been blamed for increasing polarization around the world; or more specifically for how it has come to change the lens through which we view the world, and perhaps dominate our lives. The way we work, play, consume information and educate (or mis-educate) ourselves have all changed. Social media echo chambers; the idea that people are attracted to the posts of social media contacts, pundits and content that validate and confirm narrow perspectives on unknown groups, cultures or points of view, have been blamed for forging stark societal divisions, lowering tolerance of competing ideas and consideration or pursuit of facts – driving – though certainly not causing the nationalist/populist trend overtaking much of the world. Extensive government-sponsored disinformation campaigns, launched by Russia against targets across the globe and designed to breed discontent and confusion – and skepticism over alleged, wrongful acts by the Russian government; launched by China in the West to promote Chinese economic initiatives and downplay its risks to competitors; and launched by countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to stifle and threaten opposition voices have all put today's media – especially social media – in the crosshairs of blame for rising intolerance, societal retreatism and growing toxicity in our relations and discourse.
That is the focus right now. But we need to be cautious not to throw the baby out with the proverbial bathwater. From Facebook to Twitter to encrypted messaging platforms to the news media, the worst of the worst stories rise to the top and become the grievance clause for everything we see that is distressing in the world – particularly as it pertains to technology. At the same time, the sheer amount of economic benefit that these platforms have created for small business, entrepreneurs, and minority owned businesses, not to mention larger businesses, is grossly under-appreciated.
So, what do these two trends over 2018 mean for the year to come?
First, we don't expect to see nationalist governments going away or changing their views any time soon. Retreatism, both at the government and the societal level, is going to be a continued theme in 2019, and it's going to continue to alter trade patterns, impact diplomacy and, unfortunately, continue to drive increases in xenophobic if not hateful discourse for the near term. Companies will need to continue to consider longer term strategies for protecting revenue, planning for international supply chain flexibility and continuity while considering ways to (legally) overcome regulatory schemes designed to advantage domestic interests over foreign providers. Technology companies, and especially social media platforms, will need not only to plan for tighter regulations on data housing, sources of investment capital and import/export controls, but will also suffer increased pressure to moderate user content and serve as a policing mechanism, for purposes that may both serve the public good and leave companies exposed to accusations of supporting maligned efforts to control populaces and suppress opposition.
Those choosing to take their ideals to the extreme such as has been the case in the US and Europe in 2018; in the worst of cases committing acts of violence in belief they promote their cause, will continue to challenge law enforcement and security organizations, forcing them to shift resources, intelligence collection strategies and delicately consider political and reputational ramifications of the cases they may be forced to pursue and arrests they may make. And in this age where corporate leaders have increasingly been looked to by the consuming public as potential sources of moral leadership – a trend in business unlike any we can recall over the course of history – executives will be challenged to balance expectations of growth with the ideological demands of customers, not to mention their own employees.
What might alter these trends? In our view, it will most likely be pain in the pocketbook or in a worse scenario, heightened conflict between states or within states that causes us to rethink our perspectives on our common humanity. Continued stalls in trade that ultimately lead to a rise in unemployment, persistent losses in stock value and signs (or onslaught) of recession will most likely prove the pressures that force a political re-think – particularly as countries that remain more open attract more foreign direct investment, more entrepreneurs and more innovation. And while the trade war will have ups and downs in the first half of 2019, a real shift back towards a more open and less protectionist world order will likely require the experience of a compounding series of negative consequences that pile up and weigh down institutions before the current trajectory re-orients.
But while polarization may be here to stay for a while, we'll all be charged with finding ways break down barriers, build bridges and seek a common, less unequal prosperity, despite circumstances. And those that do stand much to gain. No, it's definitely not all doom and gloom out there, but we do believe that 2019 is going to prove an interesting, if not challenging year. But challenge always comes with opportunity, forcing us to bring our A game. This year, we'll all need to bring our best selves to our work each day, force ourselves to think in new ways, tackle new challenges and pursue creative and innovative solutions to what are, in many ways' old problems, but with a very new twist.
There's an elephant in the room. And its past time to let it out.
Those of you who've met ERI's leadership and analyst cadre probably recognized right away that we, like most intelligence professionals, are rather opinionated individuals, and as individuals, we're rather comfortable speaking our minds in private settings. Divergent in opinion as we often are (which we see as a strength of our business and analysis), we take exceptional pride in training our analysts – and other companies' analysts – to work diligently to ensure that analysis is anything but opinion. There is, after all, a sharp division between editorial and analysis – something that is not always immediately understood by those new to the field. Our product is intelligence analysis. By definition, analysis is as objective as humanly possible. It should consider only facts, trends and potential outcomes. It does not serve a specific agenda, other than to support business and executive decision-making with the best and most relevant information possible. In hope that its consideration leads to decisions that produce the most effective outcomes possible. That is the role of proper analysis. These premises underpin our tradecraft.
That's a long-winded way of saying that we find it challenging to suggest that we, as intelligence analysts, need to explore head-on whether the ship that is the world's superpower has lost its leadership heading. And if so, what have been the impacts and how might we predict future outcomes. (Elephant exits the room.) Its past time to look at this situation objectively, accounting for bias (yes, we are ALL biased) and approaching our tradecraft as the expert analysts we are. As for what follows, agree or disagree. Or ask more questions. This is not intended as political commentary, but it is also not analysis. Rather, its thought. Or better yet, a challenge to all of us to think beyond our politics – whatever they are. To explore whether bias is creeping into our own work when we set to with our cup of coffee and keyboard each morning. How would we treat this situation as a US company? Would we/ or do we treat it differently as an organization outside the US?
Leadership Shifts
Since taking office, the administration has engineered a marked shift in US leadership. A move away from accepted norms and redlines of political power, changes in perceptions and dealings with US allied and non-allied countries has brought us to a new and very different foreign policy than the US has followed under previous leaders. And not all of it has been a negative change, in fact there is an argument to be made that some of these changes were badly needed to break stalemates over old issues. But, the president of the world's current superpower has also been accused of opening himself up to the prospect of blackmail by adversarial foreign powers, spoken derisively of perceived political challengers on both sides of the aisle, engaged in name-calling with foreign leaders and alternatively praised authoritarian rulers while speaking, at times wistfully, of the authoritarian controls they enjoy. Where diplomacy and backroom discussions between the US and world leaders previously led to restraint from human rights abuses – or at least significantly lower profile abuses – these discussions, or perhaps lack of those discussions and diplomacy, now seems to have led us to a place of emboldened dictatorial behavior. Does this lie in the more transactional approach of current US leadership? Where previously US foreign policy and aid money was attached to more conditionals and more diplomacy, today it appears less interventionist and attached to only a few, inconsistent ideologies.
Over the course of its post- World War II reign as one of the world's two superpowers – and as the only superpower in the post-Soviet world order since the 1990's, embracingly or reluctantly or both, the US was often been viewed as the world's police force and center of gravity for good governance. Successfully and unsuccessfully, the nation has been a key provider of aid, it has (yes, selectively) contained dictators, spoken out against human rights abuses and borne an overly proportional role in defense alliances such as NATO. Its domestic market has buoyed the global economy and its role in advent of the internet has connected industries, academia and people from major population centers to far flung rural corners of developing nations, bringing to bear today's new, data-driven industrial revolution. As a result, foreign leaders have often been forced to consider consequences of their actions, whether against their own population or their neighbors. The US could not be everywhere at once, nor did every malicious action interfere directly with US interests. But consequences it could impose were at least a consideration, thanks to US interventionist policy that projected hard and soft power far beyond US borders.
Today, how serious are these considerations by foreign leaders? Are they still a serious concern that impose a deterrent effect? And perhaps, even if we disregard a direct effect, how do these events – seemingly ordered by governments that are often our business and government partners in various endeavors – impact our investments? Our ability to continue to work in these countries, with these government partners? Will this new world order endanger our personnel by giving them less protection from corrupt governments and security forces?
Let's simply take a look at some of the facts.
- In March, Russia resumed targeted assassinations of opponents in the UK, when alleged Russian GRU officers poisoned former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury. The last time Russia committed such an attack was in 2006, while the US government and populace was consumed by a global war on terror and deeply committed to ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- In the last year, China has approximately doubled the size of internment camps where it incarcerates its ethnic Uighur population in effort to conduct "re-education," attempting to convert Chinese Muslims from Islam to atheism and Chinese Communist Party-endorsed values.
- Earlier this month, Meng Hongwei, president of Interpol and Chinese citizen, returned to China and has since disappeared. Meng's disappearance, though suspected to be the result of ongoing corruption investigations against Chinese officials, draws a bright spotlight on China's secret detention program, as used in the case of China's most internationally visible law enforcement official. Meng's detention follows a four-month detention of high-profile Chinese actress Fan Bingbing on tax evasion allegations.
- In early October, Saudi journalist and prominent critic of the ruling family Jamal Kashoggi walked into the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey and was killed by Saudi officials. The killing, responsibility for which has been not-so-deftly deflected by Saudi rulers, comes during a period when US-Saudi relations have been at least as close as ever.
- In the Middle East, Asia and Africa, dictatorial leaders have increased their war on journalists and press outlets, decrying news that portrays them in a negative light as "fake," and in many cases jailing them or worse.
- Last week in Nigeria, the Nigerian military posted a video of the US President discussing shooting people on the border who would throw rocks at US border patrol agencies. The video was in answer to criticism over the military's decision on Monday of that week to fire on Shiite protesters in the capital, killing six.
- Meanwhile, countries across Europe – the UK, Germany, Poland, Sweden and others – are experiencing a rise in influence of far right-wing political groups, activists and extremists that are gaining political ground through parliamentary seats won through elections. Much of the recent rise of nationalism across Europe has correlated to the rise of similar sentiment in the US, suggesting at minimum a tangential relationship.
Are these actions the result of foreign leaders' perception of changed US leadership? Or would they have happened anyway? If they are, how does this change our assessment or prediction of future foreign leadership decisions and resulting risks to our organizations? While there was a time organizations may have said "that has nothing to do with us," most companies can say that no more. Importantly, most don't want to. If the Khashoggi case illuminated anything for the business world – it was the tangible political and financial risk associated with gross human rights violations – even when those organizations have no direct involvement and would never sanction such actions.
So, is the world today really experiencing more of an "each to their own" climate than it has in recent history? And how much of that is down to changes in US leadership? Historian Robert Kagan calls this the international "jungle." The world before the "liberal world order" – pre-World War II. A world where leadership based on good governance is absent and strongmen prevail. If the US no longer wants to take on that leadership role, who takes it up? Or do we return to the era of every nation for themselves? And if so, how does that change the boundaries of countries behavior and its impact on our people and organizations?
As we have previously posited, when writing on domestic politics, it is sometimes useful to distance oneself from the most polarizing aspects of the issue – in this case, that often means speaking less directly about polarizing personalities – whose mention can distract us from the information and analysis we need to provide to decision makers. But in this new international order – with US decision-making less predictable and in some cases more immediately impactful on other global leaders decisions its important to ask what we may be leaving out of our analysis – and to chance – if we are tiptoeing around the topic or ignoring it altogether. If it wasn't our country, would we leave it out of our analysis as a major data point? How do we approach it with as little bias as possible? How do we look objectively at an administration that virtually no one on the planet is ambivalent about?
It's a tough nut to crack, and we suggest doing it with structured thinking, analytic tools that can help you understand your own bias and with counterparts with perspectives that differ markedly from your own. But to leave these questions unanswered is to create a serious blind spot for the future of our organization and the world.
Meredith Wilson and Brady Roberts are the CEO and COO of Emergent Risk International, respectively.
Join us for a free concise writing seminar for corporate intelligence professionals.
This seminar will focus on assisting intelligence professionals of all levels of expertise in honing and sharpening their business writing skills. We will work through several interactive exercises, discuss editing tips, tone, word choice and ways to write on politically polarizing and sensitive topics.
Date: August 2, 2018
Where: Chicago, IL
Time: 1:30 – 4:00
Date: August 7, 2018
Where: Detroit
Time: 1:30 – 4:00
Both trainings will be followed by an informal Happy Hour at a location TBD from 4:30 – 6:30.
To register, please send the name, title and email of the desired participant via the Contact Us link on this website. We have a limited number of seats, so please send your registration right away. Participation is limited to corporate, government and NGO intelligence professionals.
Intelligence Analysis Intern
Emergent Risk International is hiring interns! ERI is a Dallas based risk and intelligence advisory firm. Our business is assisting companies in utilizing intelligence and analysis to better drive their business. We focus on three primary activities:
- Assessment and Analysis: We provide bespoke geopolitical and threat intelligence products to address issues of concern to our clients. These products range from those developed for regular distribution to in-depth new market entry assessments.
- Training: We train intelligence analysts to provide intelligence analysis in a business environment focusing on tradecraft and tools that drive more efficient and effective analysis. We offer a range of in-house and open trainings to address specific levels of experience and need.
- Consulting: We help companies develop and improve their intelligence programs, providing end-to-end support; from assessing needs and providing analysis to recruiting and hiring highly qualified candidates.
Intelligence Analysis Interns will be responsible for helping ERI with a range of research, technology, analytic and administrative tasks to better serve its clients. Interns will contribute to research projects, products and services and will have a role in developing new products for the company.
Primary responsibilities:
- Assist analysts by providing structured country research on issues of importance to ERI clients
- Assist in building data visualizations and social media posts
- Assist in developing business leads
- Develop and maintain an awareness of relevant global issues impacting ERI's primary client base
- Administrative tasks as necessary
Remuneration: This role will be unpaid and run from the beginning of October through December (candidates interested in continuing through the spring semester will also be considered). Interns will receive intelligence analysis training, start-up experience and exposure to other critical professional skill sets. This internship can also be taken on for course credit with the permission of a candidates' institution. Successful candidates will work out of our offices in downtown Dallas 15-20 hours per week. Some exceptional candidates may be considered for remote work.
Experience: The right candidate will possess most or all of the following qualifications:
- Excellent writing skills
- In final year of undergrad or has finished BA/BS degree
- Foreign language capability
- International relations, political economy, economics, development, political science or other related fields of study are preferred
- Working knowledge of information technology, social media and tech related trends
- Experience living or studying abroad
- Strong academic record
- Self-motivated and able to manage time effectively
- Strong work ethic and commitment
Application Deadline is September 30. Please send your resume, cover letter, and a recent writing sample to: email@example.com
We live in a world exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.
Carl Sagan
When I talk to students or my interns about careers, one thing I tell them all: they must possess an above average understanding of cyber and technology. Inability to process the meaning and implications of technology on the geopolitical landscape will make it impossible to grasp the future trajectory of global security, inter-state relations, economics, politics and security.
For years, tech oriented analysts warned of quickening convergence between cyberthreats and traditional security threats – be it crime or the convergence of geopolitics, war, diplomacy and cyber warfare. Today, cyber and physical threats are becoming indivisible. Consider the rise of ISIS – which would not have taken shape as quickly or broadly without the internet – and especially social media. The protests of the Arab Spring, which, aided by social media, rose faster and pushed the Middle East further in a shorter time frame than anyone would've thought possible. And criminality, from human trafficking to drug smuggling to the most basic of crime: credit card fraud. You are more likely to have someone steal your credit card information virtually (or purchase it from a dark web site), than you are to be mugged on the street.
Cyberwarfare and technology form a major facet of the strategy of state and non-state actors. "Cyber" is nothing more than another tool used by a range of geopolitical and criminal actors to influence an outcome by force. When we discuss North Korea, for example, most reporting highlights developments in its missile program and the threat of traditional war. Much less is said about covert cyberwarfare that has purportedly been aimed at North Korea's nuclear program for several years now. Even less is said of North Korea's cyber capability and the attacks it has reportedly carried out against governments and major multi-national companies. Or the country's purported role in the WannaCry virus that surfaced earlier this year, fashioned out of leaked CIA cybertools. None of this is a secret, but it is repeatedly left out of geopolitical analysis that examines how scenarios between North Korea and the rest of the world might unfold.
We cannot credibly assess future scenarios without taking the cyber capabilities of the actors – state or non-state – into account. Likewise – it is increasingly hard to do the opposite as well. That is, credible cyberthreat analysis cannot be undertaken without consideration of the geopolitical and security aims of the actor. Is the attack part of a broader strategy to attack our country or organization? Is it being carried out by a state or non-state actor? Is there a motive that stretches beyond money? Who are they connected to? And yet, we continue to separate our analysis into the cyber and the non-cyber – almost guaranteeing that we are not appreciating the whole picture.
Ukraine is the most obvious example of how cyberwarfare has become an integrated part of political and conflict strategy. Its become a virtual blueprint for what modern hybrid warfare looks like. It is the future of conflict, but it remains relatively unappreciated outside of a few well-informed circles of the geopolitical and cyber community. The Petya "not Petya" attacks in late June are one of the most recent examples. While ground warfare continues in and near separatist controlled Ukraine, an ongoing disinformation campaign has persisted for years. And critical infrastructure has been hit repeatedly, not by bombs (though that has also happened), but by cyberattacks. The Petya attack – while not spreading as far as WannaCry – impacted trains, airports, banks, electricity and several other types of critical infrastructure simultaneously. To that point – simultaneous attack of several types of critical infrastructure had not been accomplished by a malicious cyber actor, ever. The attack, disguised as an accounting software update, which was then disguised as a ransomware attack was actually created to wipe out hard drives, with no recovery. In addition to taking critical infrastructure of the intended recipient offline; it spread to global business, bringing supply chains and logistics to a grinding halt. Many affected businesses still have not fully recovered and will suffer significant losses from the recovery expense for Q2 this year.
While the probable state actor was identified quickly, given that Ukraine has suffered virtually non-stop cyber attacks for the past four years, it may have taken longer to make this connection had the attack targeted a country or company with a less clear cut adversary, potentially making mitigation and defensive measures harder to implement.
In order for us to improve the way we understand the world we have to better understand those things that may lie outside our expertise or comfort zone. Facebook's Head of Global Security, Alex Stamos, made a similar point to the cyber community at the 20th Anniversary of Black Hat, an annual conference dedicated to hacking. In Stamos' words, the hacking community has to become more diverse and inclusive. This is not just for diversity's sake, but in order to better understand the implications of hacking, who it harms and how it harms them. It is estimated that the world will need around 2 million more cybersecurity experts in the next two years alone. Meanwhile, academics, intelligence professionals, business leaders – and especially governments – need to get much smarter about cyber, rather than dismissing it. Until we do, our analysis will be incomplete.
- Disinformation is proliferating and intensifying threats, seen and unseen.
- False narratives propagated by state and non-state actors utilizing disinformation can ruin corporate and personal reputations, threaten business continuity, cause or intensify conflict and drive deep ideological fault lines.
- A recent study of computer generated propaganda and disinformation revealed that disinformation is having a strong impact on public opinion in some countries.
- A lack of public understanding of the depth and sophistication of disinformation operations is leaving governments, organizations, and individuals vulnerable to cybercrime and false narratives that undermine sound decision-making.
- Tools, information, and counter-measures are emerging, but education is the most effective tool we have against disinformation.
Back in January, not long after the new administration took office, Starbucks made a pledge to hire 10,000 refugees. The move quickly became a political issue with folks on one side applauding the effort, and on the other, angry about it.
What drove some of the anger however, was, at best, misinformation (unintentionally misleading info), and possibly disinformation (intentionally misleading with a goal to manipulate public opinion/ perceptions), via several viral memes. One of the most visible memes said: "Hey Starbucks, instead of hiring 10,000 refugees, why don't you hire 10,000 veterans?" But here's the thing: Starbucks has had a goal to hire 10,000 veterans through their very successful military partners program since 2013. And while there were other factors at play too, the disinformation amplified the issue, which quickly lodged itself in a partisan fault line. Starbucks handled the issue, in part, by drawing attention to their long running veteran's program. In addition, veterans who work with Starbucks came to their defense. But the story is illustrative of a growing problem. Fake news and disinformation travel at the speed of a text message or a twitter post and its impact can damage reputations – and worse – catalyze security and major geopolitical events.
As we've highlighted in a previous article, disinformation is NOT new. But it is an increasingly potent force driving public opinion or catalyzing crises amplified by its use with other mediums like social media, malware and increasingly popular alternate media outlets. Technology, speed and open access to low cost tools to disseminate information instantly and globally allow anyone: state and non-state actors, politicians, companies and ordinary people to disseminate and amplify disinformation with the right combination of tools.
Disinformation is shaping public opinion
A new study from Oxford University discusses how technology and social media contribute to the spread of disinformation and propaganda. The Computational Propaganda Research Project, found that propaganda and disinformation spread via social media is being utilized in multiple countries around the world to successfully shape public opinion on political issues, especially related to referendums and elections. Moreover, it found that highly automated social media accounts (also known as "bots") were responsible for as much as 45% of all Twitter traffic in some countries. The study took a look at recent events in Canada, Russia, Brazil, China, the US and several others to understand the impact of social media – especially automated social media, on public opinion. Particularly interesting findings from the paper included:In Brazil "bot networks and other forms of computational propaganda were active in the 2014 presidential election, the constitutional crisis, and the impeachment process." These included "highly automated accounts supporting and attacking political figures, debate issues such as corruption, and encouraging protest movements."
- In the US, "Twitter bots … reached highly influential network positions within retweet networks during the 2016 US election. The botnet associated with Trump-related hashtags was 3 times larger than the botnet associated with Clinton-related hashtags."
- In Russia, over 45% of all social media activity is generated by bot nets. Nearby "Ukraine is the frontline of experimentation in computational propaganda, with active campaigns of engagement between Russian botnets, Ukraine nationalist botnets, and botnets from civil society groups"
In simple terms, bots are being utilized to pump out information, usually false and misleading, at alarmingly high numbers in some countries. The use of bots to increase the visibility of disinformation across the internet plays into several biases including availability bias and confirmation bias, and has proven highly effective at shaping public opinion. That impact affects everything from referendums and elections, to social and political stability, to consumer brand preferences, to whom we trust online with sensitive information, to our reputation and security.
Disinformation is driving geopolitical events
Disinformation has the potential to catalyze diplomatic tensions into much larger geo-political situations. Particularly in countries where hair-trigger response to threats are common (Israel/Palestine, North Korea, South Korea, etc), disinformation at the right tempo and time could touch off a major conflict before there is time to set the record straight. Two recent examples include an article in a Bahrain newspaper – planted disinformation that catalyzed the still-festering Qatar blockade and a fake article about Israel and Pakistan.
In Bahrain, the offending article may have been a catalyst (and a convenient excuse) for GCC countries to cut-off diplomatic relationships with Qatar, though it was by no means the cause of the dispute. The crisis has created expensive logistical problems for businesses in the region and substantially complicated transnational relationships across the Gulf, US regional relationships and counter-terrorism efforts there.
In another recent incident, the Pakistani Foreign Minister tweeted a nuclear threat at Israel after reading a fake news piece on Israel's response to reports that Pakistan was getting involved in Syria.
Disinformation is driving real world security events
Disinformation, misinformation, and outright fake news are causing real world security problems. Most people will now be familiar with the fabricated news story that circulated in the final days of the election about a certain candidate running nefarious activities out of the basement of a pizza restaurant in Washington DC, Comet Ping Pong. The fake story, which originated on Twitter and quickly spread to Reddit, back to Twitter and on Facebook, became the basis for a real world security event when a man named Edgar Welch showed up at the Pizzaria with a rifle in hand. Only then did he discover that the restaurant didn't HAVE a basement, let alone any politicians involved in human trafficking there.
Long before the election, similar fake stories were generated in an attempt to create more panic over the Ebola crisis, Ferguson and a completely made up event about a chemical plant, owned by Colombian Chemicals, exploding in Louisiana on 9/11.
The Colombian Chemicals case, in particular, demonstrated how such a hoax can cause disruption to a company, local emergency services and propagate disinformation through the use of botnets (though this particular attempt was not as successful as the perpetrators intended).
These cases show obvious links between disinformation and the actual event, but more cases can undoubtedly be found by digging into the annals of radicalization. Cases exist across the political and ideological spectrum highlighting the selective disinformation and propaganda that radicalized individuals have consumed in the process of becoming radicalized.
Disinformation can lead to major IT security threats
Malicious links are often found in hyper-partisan click-bait publications that trade in fake news, disinformation, hyperbolic and polarizing headlines or advertisements created by botnets. In a recent case, a Defense Department employee clicked on a link about vacation packages tailored to his interests in his twitter feed. This link downloaded malware that allowed a server in Russia to take control of his computer and Twitter account. That same malware was sent to at least 10,000 DoD employees.
Like phishing attacks, these campaigns trick users into clicking on them, based on a sense of trust in the friend who shared the post, or the targeted nature of the information which is based on their specific social media behavior. According to government sources, Twitter has the most malicious links embedded in disinformation and other types of posts due to the large amount of botnets active on the site and sharing the information at a high volume. The problem has also been identified in smaller volume on Facebook, which has been taking public steps to address disinformation and fake news proliferating on the site.
Disinformation may be driving some of your most important decisions
Distinguishing between what is real and what is fake is getting more difficult. Even more worrying is that gray area in between where information is intentionally altered, taken out of context, or twisted to support a particular narrative. Over-time these misconceptions become embedded in political discourse and become part of our basic assumptions. This drives poor decision-making and in the extreme; dangerous rhetoric that dehumanizes and encourages violence against people who do not agree with a particular point of view. Whether it is viral memes suggesting that police officers are violent or media outlets that portray peaceful protests as being carried out by "violent criminals." Disinformation and propaganda, in extreme scenarios fed numerous genocides that took place during the 20th century, whether religious, ethnically, or politically driven.
In a less dramatic – but worrying – scenario, Russia has targeted multiple demographics in the US including US military personnel, through the use of fake "patriotic" websites and Facebook groups that plant disinformation and fake news to influence their behavior and loyalties.
In aggregate, continued exposure to disinformation affects consequential decisions, from split second battlefield decisions to major policy initiatives fed by hyper-partisan narratives. But it also feeds everyday decisions, like who we choose to hire, whether we interpret a person's actions as a threat based on the way they look, or some aspect of their character, and how we respond to that threat.
Falling behind on information warfare
Disinformation – though as old as time – has been harnessed in the information age to amplify social issues, increase distrust among disparate groups of people and drive wedges between previously unified groups. While some countries have been wise to this for many years, in the US, the phenomenon has caught many off-guard, leaving us more vulnerable than many realize. The US public had more awareness of disinformation operations during the Cold War, but the fall of the Soviet Union and the shift in security focus to terrorism and threats from non-state actors dulled the public's understanding of the topic. Meanwhile, disinformation tradecraft (particularly in Russia and Eastern Europe) became more sophisticated, automated and easier to exploit. This was most dramatically seen in the recent US election cycle, but has been occurring throughout the last decade and particularly since the US and EU levied sanctions against Russia in 2014 following annexation of Crimea.
Managing Pandora's Box
As with every problem that vexes our society, there is innovation and ingenuity at work to solve these problems. And though there is no way to close Pandora's Box again, there are ways to lessen the impact of disinformation. Key among these is educating ourselves, and those around us, about how our biases make us prone to falling prey to disinformation. In addition, there is a growing body of literature and study on the topic that can help us understand what is occurring, when it's occurring and how to address it. We can also familiarize ourselves with some of the tools (Facebook, Google) that are emerging to address this problem; from initiatives to develop artificial intelligence solutions, to academic research, to the use of trusted data sources to refute questionable claims. There are good reasons to be hopeful about our ability to manage the threat that disinformation creates, but the fight against the use of technology to mislead, misinform, and drive wedges between people is particularly urgent. Especially in an age when mass communication happens at the touch of a button.
Meredith Wilson is the Founder and CEO of Emergent Risk International, LLC. Find out more or subscribe to our newsletter here.
Sometimes the US intelligence community gets it wrong, but often, they get it right. And sometimes, they get it really right. We featured the excerpt below in our summary piece on the ODNI threat assessment back in February – highlighting its importance for those who provide analysis and information for decision-makers.
"Future cyber operations will almost certainly include an increased emphasis on changing or manipulating data to compromise its integrity (i.e., accuracy and reliability) to affect decision-making, reduce trust in systems, or cause adverse physical effects. Broader adoption of IoT (internet of things) devices and AI—in settings such as public utilities and health care—will only exacerbate these potential effects… cyber actors, who post disinformation on commercial websites, might seek to alter online media as a means to influence public discourse and create confusion… (pg. 2)"
As the perfect storm that is the US Presidential election is upon us, we are facing a global problem of how to address veracity and credibility of sources, not just for analysts and researchers but for the general public; who ultimately make voting decisions that set the course for US government foreign policy towards the rest of the world.
The proliferation of information on the internet has given rise to an avalanche of disinformation. At the same time, disparate groups across political, cultural and idealist-driven divides increasingly disagree on what constitutes credible information. This creates problems for analysts and decision makers as we grapple with utilizing the information that most accurately reflects the reality facing our business or organization. Below we outline some thoughts and resources for addressing disinformation within your organization, analysis and decision-making:
Agree on a common understanding credibility.
Like many terms in the geopolitical-security world, we sometimes assume that when we discuss credible information, that we have a common understanding and acceptance of what constitutes a credible source. Even within small organizations, opinions on credibility often vary markedly; informed by each individuals' life experiences and personal biases. For example, one analyst could be assigning high amounts of credibility to only sources that are politically left leaning, while another may be doing the same with right leaning media. (In reality, we hope analysts are looking at sources across the ideological spectrum to understand what their customers may be reading too). Having team discussions about how your team defines credibility – and even utilizing a simple credibility ratings system for information and human sources – like the one used by the US intelligence community – can go a long way to ensuring good communication, use of high-integrity sources and internal understanding of whats credible and what may not be.
Emphasize the importance of integrity of reporting and information over speed of reporting.
While there are notable exceptions to this rule, in general, we should rarely be focused on being the first to report breaking news information to our leadership. There are so many free and paid services that do this already – and some that do it really well. The role of the intelligence and analysis function is to make sure that the organization has the most organization specific, relevant, high-integrity information and analysis to ensure high-quality decision making. Some good resources for understanding the integrity of online sources and journalistic guidelines and standards can be found here, here, here and here. Teams can learn a lot through reviewing these materials, both about how they can better assess the integrity of sources, as well as how to evaluate other organizations and the sources of information they provide.
Develop an understanding of disinformation.
While Russian propaganda is receiving the most attention at present, it should be noted that disinformation campaigns are as old as espionage itself and have been utilized across the world. What has changed is how disinformation is disseminated and its exceptionally wide and quick propagation across the internet – which often makes it difficult to counter before it has become accepted as true. The EU, and increasingly, the US, have been especially affected by propaganda campaigns since sanctions were levied against Russia in 2014 over Ukraine. The EU has even created a task force responsible for educating the public about disinformation and highlighting disinformation in the press.
Exercise extreme caution in utilizing leaked materials of any kind.
Leaked documents, such as those released by Wikileaks, Edward Snowden and other actors, can provide insight into how individuals and organizations communicate. Unfortunately, it is also exceptionally difficult to identify whether the information in these documents has been tampered with, is outright false or taken out of context. In our work, the most important thing we can do related to leaked materials is ensure that our personnel and organizations are not in danger as a result of information in purported leaked documents.
Understand the WHY of fake information.
While much of the above-discussed disinformation is designed to sow confusion and divisive politics, there are many types of disinformation and fake information out there today. These do not all serve the same purpose. For example, a large body of fake information is driven by the pursuit of web advertising revenue; fake news sites that publish alarmist headlines in an effort to get readers to click on the story. Many of these are so poorly written that their veracity is easily questioned – but not all. There are also fake news sites that are generally devoted to providing entertainment (also to bring in advertising revenue, but overtly). The most well known among these is The Onion; but lesser known satire sites can get picked up by less savvy readers and quoted as fact. By learning the motives behind fake information, it is often easier for analysts to divine fact vs fiction and good sources vs bad ones.
Stay on top of the changing information landscape
Finally, in an information environment that is changing by the minute, ensure that your team's remit includes regular reviews of their sourcing choices and an assessment of their personal biases towards information. Keep them focused on utilizing high quality information from credible government sources, think tanks, academia, and news sites with a record of integrity and accurate reporting. Ensure an understanding of best practices in the use of social media and ground-level sources. And insist on independent source verification of all reported information, including that which comes in from information vendors' everyday. After all, our analysis is only as good as the credibility of the information that it is based upon.
"The world is much more uncertain and volatile than it has ever been before. And that is because of some factors coming together now that have never come together before. And they amplify each other. You have a totally different world order and we struggle with that enormously" Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever – comments made in interviews for "Thinking the Unthinkable; A New Imperative for Leadership in the Digital Age"
Intelligence professionals need to be fundamentally forward looking in how we approach our roles as guardians of our organization's resilience – especially as it relates to major external shocks. With potentially disruptive US elections approaching and a host of hot button geopolitical issues on the table – the economy and global security environment are ripe for shocks. Excepting political risk created by the elections, most of these issues exist without the US Presidential elections as a factor. What makes them especially worthy of our attention right now is their potential to catalyze actors to provocative actions with intent to influence outcomes, capitalize on US distraction with domestic politics, or intimidate allies and other foreign actors. All of these may increase political and security risk for multi-national organizations as foreign governments react to or seek to hedge their risk based on candidate's foreign policy and trade platforms.
While it can be hard (and politically touchy) to train leadership attention on strategic impacts of these hot button issues, prepping decision makers for possible shocks and discussing mitigation measures in the event of a major unanticipated event is a key reason our roles exist. This is an opportunity for risk intelligence to add real value and depth to their organization's risk management capacity.
With that in mind, here are just a few of the issues we're addressing with our clients as the fall approaches:
Political risk from US elections impacting US multi-nationals overseas
For the first time in decades, political scientists and financial markets anticipate substantial political risk associated with the upcoming US elections. For multi-national organizations, the risk associated with foreign government perception, potential sharp changes in US foreign policy, and foreign reaction to perceived risk to their interests is sizable. From the impact on defense and trade agreements to increasingly punitive regulatory environments to increased anti-American sentiment, it's important to consider which way the winds are blowing and begin thinking about ways to mitigate these risks in this increasingly unpredictable election year.
Simmering geopolitical challenges
Last week China announced it would deploy its first nuclear submarine days after the US announced it was lifting a decades old arms embargo on Vietnam. In a climate of continual small escalations in the South China Sea, this was not as alarming as perhaps it should've been. Meanwhile, North Korea continues with bellicose rhetoric and aggressive weapons technology development. Russia's unpredictable foreign policy may also worsen in response to the US missile shield in Europe or in the likely event that sanctions are extended in July. Further agitations designed to provoke response from Presidential candidates shift the general tenor of the election, or in anticipation of a muted response from a distracted US political establishment should be anticipated on at least one of these fronts. While these are high level geopolitical issues, all of them have real world impacts for the security, political and regulatory environment for US companies operating abroad.
Global economic shocks
The 2008 financial crisis completely changed the trajectory of the political conversation ahead of the 2008 election and shifted the fortunes of millions of people around the world. As the US elections approach, increasingly erratic US and overseas markets may be the norm, depending on who is polling ahead in the race, whose voice is being heard the loudest and how that bodes for economic growth at home and abroad. With respect to Chinese markets, no matter how we dice it, enormous amounts of the global economy – and as an extension global risk – are wrapped up in a market that is anything but transparent. Election season could exacerbate this risk OR a market collapse could impact the outcome of the elections. While the question of how a collapse in the Chinese market would reverberate is an overwhelming one, we need to seriously consider US business resilience to such an event.
Terrorism, extremism, and technology enabled catastrophic events
As has occurred in the past, interest in pulling off major coordinated attacks ahead of elections is likely to rise within extremist organizations possibly with intent to influence the outcome. While the nature of terror attacks makes it hard to plan for, it is worth the time to assess organizational readiness and resilience to catastrophic attacks in the coming months. Particular attention should be paid to large events – especially technology enabled events – that would cause disruptions to critical infrastructure such as electricity, water, food supply, or major logistical hubs. A chaotic election year offers a potentially irresistible stage for those who wish to do catastrophic damage and disrupt major economies.
Its not what you know, it's how you analyze it
Our approach to these problems – because they so dramatically impact the analytic outcome – is as important as analyzing the issues themselves. Here are a few thoughts on ways to approach what may be a very touchy political topic within your organization.
(1) Choose the most relevant issues
A critical examination of strategic issues that may impact your organization shouldn't be an individual scattershot exercise, nor should it be based on gut instinct. Take a systematic approach to the risks that are most relevant to your short and medium term business model with other company professionals with complimentary roles. It may be helpful to draw up a list of company relevant issues and actors that are sensitive to major changes in the US electoral environment – including countries that have already weighed in on US elections, extremist actors looking for a high profile stage or with definable interest in seeing one candidate win over the other, or actors with sizable economic interest at stake.
(2) Introduce issues gradually
Rather than writing a paper on potential shocks with no previous introduction to the issue, start sensitizing potential strategic issues slowly through other mediums first. A daily or weekly product is a great place to start introducing issues of concern and to briefly highlight potential risks for the organization. Another method is through one on one discussion with others who may have an overlapping area of responsibility and a different point of view on the subject. Depending on your organization's receptiveness, you could also conduct an internal poll on how people in your company view risk associated with these issues – gauging both awareness and internal concern.
(3) Consider your bias
Consider the organization's and your own bias about potential outcomes and look for ways to correct for it. On election-related issues, our biggest blind spot may boil down to our inability to be objective about the candidate field. Beyond personal feelings about the candidates, US-based risk intelligence analysts are often not used to looking at political risk and geopolitical risk associated with US politics. As a result, our bias may be higher and analysis more inclined to downplaying potential outcomes than it might be if we were looking at a similar issue in another country. The first step is to be aware of it and willing to challenge your own assumptions. Then, there are many ways to help us reduce bias, including (shameless plug alert!) some that we will be working through at our July mini-training.
(4) Make sure you're asking the right question
Too often companies approach geopolitical issues with the immediate impact in mind and if they don't discern a direct impact, they move on. But there are serious business continuity disruptions and consequences that may not be immediately apparent with the application of the simple question: How does this impact us? In Asia for example, secondary and tertiary supply chain risks are acute with so many companies' supply chains inextricably tied to the region. So what is the right question? Is it: How would a Chinese economic crash impact our company? Or is it rather something else, like: How resilient is our supply chain to a major economic crash in China and beyond? Or: How many single source suppliers do we have in this region and what are the major shocks we need to be thinking about that could impact our business resilience here?
Keep your mind in a strategic place
Businesses are so busy doing their business, that, without leaders who are intentional about examining strategic risks, many of these issues go unnoticed until mitigation is no longer an option. Thought leadership on strategic shocks is a perfect role for risk intelligence professionals. Regardless of other curve balls this election season throws us, it will pay dividends to get ahead of the issues. Now is the time. Our ability to add value through intelligence and analysis will decline as the elections near and the opportunity for building resilience and mitigation strategy disappears altogether.


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Meet the team behind Positive Activism. Click "Learn More" to read about our credentials, focus areas, hobbies, and quirks. We've got artists, writers, editors, founders, jokers, tokers, midnight okay you get the idea. But seriously, come check us out and learn more about us!
I'm Sarah! I live in Buffalo, New York where I am working on my masters in Social Work. I have been involved with activism for several years now and worked mainly in the areas of women's rights and peace work but am also interested in disability rights and food politics. I am thrilled be a part of the Positive Activism movement because it's so important to see the bright side of what we are doing rather than get lost in the way traditional media works. This is a great space to focus on the beautiful things we are all doing to make the world a better place!
My name is Alexandria Thibodeaux and I go by Lexi, but some old friends know me as Alex or Tibs – call me by either. I'm a vegan, environmentalist, & philanthropist, with a spunky and compassionate personality. I have a B.A. in psychology from Saint Louis University and I am currently a teacher's assistant at a Montessori infant and toddler school, and love being part of the Montessori education system. I strive to be a holistic dietician and health coach. Both mental and physical health are very important to me and I have a strong belief that practicing a holistic lifestyle will promote and maintain mental & physical health and well being. Therefore, I believe this career path will allow me help others improve their lives. In addition to nutrition and lifestyle practices, I have a myriad of passions, and those closest to my core include compassion for animals, respect for and preserving the environment, supporting fair trade, promoting change for the physical and mental healthcare system in the U.S., and non-traditional approaches to education. I am very excited to be a part of this team and organization and to spread awareness!
Hello Everyone! My name is Emily. I am currently working towards a Master's in the Science of Art Therapy with an interest in social action and expressive arts at Mount Mary University in Milwaukee Wisconsin.
My interests lie in creating artwork and using it in a way with a social impact whether it be creating artwork about a social issue or working with people who can benefit from the creation of artwork. My heart holds a special place for creating art with members my community. I truly believe that the connections that can be made with people through the creation of artwork can be beneficial on an individual level and have a positive impact on society as a whole.
I joined Positive Activism with the hope to give the organization a creative outlet as well as support. I enjoy helping develop projects for Positive Activism and helping spread the organization's activism goals with the community. I feel as though the ability to create artwork is a gift and I want to give my gift back to those around me. My ultimate goal is to make those I work with aware that they are capable, powerful, cared for, and loved.
Hello! My name is Larissa, I am Brazilian and the youngest in PA team. I have just graduated from a military school in Brasilia and started studying Journalism at the university here while I wait for results from American universities.
I have been involved with non-profits for about four years but only last year my involvement became international, when I started advocating for Invisible Children. Thereafter, I realized the importance and the potential present in worldwide cooperation for charity and social service.
Two years ago I also discovered my passion for travelling. I believe it is a unique way of broadening horizons and perspectives, fighting prejudice and, most importantly, learning. I travel whenever I can and I believe every tiny place in the world has a story to tell, thus I also try to collect those. I am big fan of Bob Dylan, universal literature and sun.
In my life I certainly want to use my writing to create some global awareness and am very thankful for being part of PA team and having some space close to these nice people to start doing this.
I am the founder of Positive Activism, and have been involved in Nonprofit work for several years. I have done work in Kenya, South Africa, the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, Chicago, New Orleans, and more. I have two Bachelor's Degrees in Political Science and Democracy and Justice Studies and a Masters in International Public Affairs from the University of Wisconsin.
I created Positive Activism with the hope of bringing like minded students together around the idea of changing the world with a smile on our faces. I am passionate about the issues of Hunger, Poverty, Inequality, and peace! And my favorite color is blue, if you haven't noticed by now.

subset: commoncrawl


text: First High King of the Noldor. Finwe had no parents, he awoke at Cuiviénen. Finwe went to Valinor with Elwe and Ingwe under the command of the valar. He returned to lead all Elves to Aman from Middle-Earth. Finwe had two wives: Miriel and Indis. With Miriel, Finwe had Feanor. With Indis, Finwe had Fingolfin and Finarfin. Finwe's people were extremely successful outside of Middle-Earth. Finwe lived in Tirion. Then, Finwe and Feanor went to live in Formenos. However, Melkor attacked Formenos and killed Finwe and took his precious Silmarils. This greatly angered Feanor.


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Their Favorite Women's Wallet145.00 RON http://delikatesaccessories.com/their-favorite-womens-wallet_115939
Shop policy
Sometimes it's good to be surprised. Other times it feels great to choose.
Buy this women's wallet as a gift without choosing a pattern. After the payment has been made you will receive a gift card via email that you can offer to anyone you like. The person receiving the gift will be able to choose from our stock their favorite pattern for this wallet using the code on the voucher, or they can use the value of the voucher as a discount for an accessory in a different price category. The voucher can be used exclusively for accessories on stock from our webshop.
The patterns feature our original design. Thanks to the transfer technique the patterned parts are for hard wear. The outer shell is made out of genuine leather.Measurements:
- 12 cm x 9 cm when closed
- 24 cm x 9 cm when opened
*The voucher can be used for all accessories on stock on our webpage, and is valid for 3 months from the date of its purchase. When ordering, you will have to fill out the shipping address, too (it can be the same as the billing address). But don't worry, when the person receiving the gift will choose the pattern of their liking, they will be asked to enter their own shipping address. You can also pay for the shipping fee, if you'd like. If you choose not to, this amount will be charged to the person receiving the gift card.


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"Pope Field KPOB Airfield Map Art" by – Squadron Posters!
Pope Field KPOB Airfield Map Art
Pope Field KPOB Airfield Map Art.
Pope Field (KPOB or POB) is a U.S. military facility located 12 miles northwest of the central business district of Fayetteville in Cumberland County, North Carolina. Formerly known as Pope Air Force Base, the facility continues to be used by the United States Air Force but is now operated by the U.S. Army as part of Fort Bragg.
12×16 canvas wrap, 16×20 poster, 16×20 poster framed, 16×20 canvas wrap, 20×30 poster, 20×30 poster framed, 20×30 canvas wrap, 32×48 canvas wrap
- Larry Smith2/04/2018Marie Terrell
I purchase a canvas poster of HC130J. It was packed really well and in great shape. The picture... read more is BEAUTIFUL! Thank you to everyone involved. read less1/16/2018Amy MacKay
The Aviator's map was the perfect gift for our son who recently enlisted in the Air Force. The canvas... read more is beautiful ( so nice that my son is reluctant to put any push pins into it!) The company offered excellent, personal customer service. I truly felt like I was dealing with a small business who cares about the customer! Thank you to Andy and the rest of the team. read less12/27/2017
- Sarah Terrell
We ordered a beautiful Jet Black Super Wide Framed Canvas in celebration of my husband's assignment to the HC-130J. It... read more looks amazing in our living room and the world will definitely know we are an Air Force family. 😉 The canvas was well packaged and shipped quickly. We will definitely be return customers. Thank you Squadron Posters! read less12/09/2017
- Kate Lynn
We've ordered two pictures from them now: a large C-17 canvas and the canvas Aviator's Map. Both pictures are beautiful.... read more They arrived quickly and with no defects. Very happy with Squadron Posters and can't wait to get the rest of the pictures we have on our wish list. read less11/10/2017Michael D Holt
Excellent product! Fast shipping. Looks awesome on my wall above the sofa. Cant wait to show it off to friends.11/03/2017


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So, being that Bluey died in 1939, the click through picture is just of a random Australian cattle dog puppy. I could only track down one picture of Bluey.
How long did Bluey live? 29 1/2 years! He was alive from June 7, 1910 to November 14, 1939 [1].
Where was he found? Bluey lived in Victoria, Australia with his owners Les and Esma Hall.
What did he eat? Kangaroo and emu [2]. I could not track down a proper citation for this, but it was Australia in the early 1900's, so it's believable.
What did he look like? See figure 1. That's the only picture I could find, but Bluey looks like a dog.
How do people know how old he was? I have no idea. I'm guessing some form of vet records since he made it into the Guinness Book of Records. In all honesty Bluey may have been a girl, I can't seem to even track down the gender of the dog.
- "Oldest dog". Guinness World Records. 2011. Accessed 10/30/2016.
- "Diets of the Oldest dogs in the world"http://www.monicasegal.com/wordpress/?p=431. Accessed 10/30/2016


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Massachusetts spans about 8,257 square miles, and within those many miles it hosts a diverse range of regional and seasonal climes, from comfy summer temperatures to winter temps that often fall below freezing. [Ref 1] However, all areas of the Bay State fall within U.S. Department of Agriculture plant hardiness zones 5 through 7. These zones, updated in 2012, help you decide what to plant at home based on the average minimum winter temperature of the area. [Ref 2]
Zone 5
The majority of western and central Massachusetts falls within USDA plant hardiness zone 5b, which is defined by average minimum winter temperatures of -15 to -10 degrees Fahrenheit. This planting zone encompasses Berkshire County, Greenfield, the majority of Pittsfield, Franklin, central Worcester County, most of northern Gardner and the western portions of Hampden and Hampshire counties. A few very small areas of the state fall into the chillier zone 5a, which has average minimum winter temps of -20 to -15 degrees Fahrenheit. These regions include a strip of central and northern Berkshire county and a small section of northern Worcester County. Suggested garden plants for zone 5 include daisy-like asters, drooping wisteria and common garden veggies such as lettuce and onions.
Zone 6
Roughly half of central Massachusetts, including the lower half of Worcester County, central Middlesex County and western Essex County, occupies USDA plant hardiness zone 6a. This zone features average minimum winter temperatures of -10 to -5 degrees Fahrenheit. All of the city of Springfield, as well as central and western Hampden County, inhabits this zone as well, as does the western half of Norfolk County. Eastern Massachusetts, from the city of Gloucester and the county of Bristol to the eastern border of Plymouth County, falls into hardiness zone 6b, where average minimum winter temperatures range from -5 to 0 degrees. Ornamental hydrangeas, lilies and irises thrive in zone 6, as do blackberries and blueberries.
Zone 7
The temperate island counties of Dukes and Nantucket reside in USDA plant hardiness zone 7a. The average minimum winter temps in this more moderate zone fall between 0 and 5 degrees Fahrenheit. The city of Barnstable and the majority of Barnstable County are also in zone 7a, as is the southern coastal region of Bristol County. Zone 7 accommodates herbs such as chives and rosemary, as well as sweet fruits like peaches and pears.
More Info
The Bay State has a growing season about 120 to 140 days in the west and about 160 to 200 days on its eastern coast. This region has a fairly even distribution of precipitation, which averages about 40 to 50 inches per year. If you need more info about your particular region before planting, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service System office -- these plant pros can provide data on everything from invasive plants to soil amendments.


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- Dean's Message
- Why CUHK Law
- Bachelor of Laws (LLB)
- Juris Doctor (JD)
- Dual & Double Degrees
- Dual LLB-JD Degree Programme with KCL
- BBA-JD Double Degree
- JD-MBA Double Degree
- Postgraduate Certificate in Laws (PCLL)
- Master of Laws (LLM) in Chinese Business Law
- Master of Laws (LLM) in Common Law
- Master of Laws (LLM) in Energy and Environmental Law
- Master of Laws (LLM) in International Economic Law
- Master of Philosophy in Laws (MPhil)
- Doctor of Philosophy in Laws (PhD)
- Student Admission
The Postgraduate Certificate in Laws (PCLL) is a unique and innovative postgraduate certificate that offers skills-focused training closely reflecting the work lawyers undertake.
The PCLL has been developed in close consultation with the legal profession to meet its current needs and to equip students with the skills they will need to work as a trainee solicitor or a pupil barrister. [View Video]
|Medium of instruction:
|How and when to apply:
Applications for 2020-2021 admissions are now invited. You must submit your application on or before 30 April 2020. Late applications or incomplete applications will not be considered.
Before submitting an application, please read the following two documents:
To submit an application, please use our on-line application process at the University's Graduate School webpage.
|Admission requirements:
The basis for admission to the PCLL Programme is academic merit.
The most important indicator of academic merit is your common law degree, usually a Bachelor of Laws or a Juris Doctor degree, though we also consider applicants with CPEs or GDLs.
Your law qualification will be assessed by reference to the classification, including grades, marks or other indicators of academic merit.
A limited number of PCLL places may be offered to candidates based on their academic merit, supplemented by evidence of law-related working experience (not including internships and mini-pupillages) of not less than two years' continuous duration. Such working experience must be evidenced by supporting documents (See "3. Supporting Documents" in "Important Notes to Applicants".).
You must meet the eligibility requirements for admission to the PCLL set out in the statement issued by the Standing Committee on Legal Education and Training (available at www.pcea.com.hk). You must also hold a valid International English Language Testing System (IELTS) Certificate (academic module) with an overall score of 7 or above taken on a date which is not earlier than three years preceding the closing date for applications in the academic year in which you are seeking entry to the PCLL.
Since the most important indicator of your academic merit is your common law qualification, whether you have a training contract or pupillage arranged is irrelevant. References letters supporting your application are not considered and we do not conduct interviews for any of our applicants. We will rarely have regard to subsequent law qualifications unless your results in those are outstanding.
Applications are dealt with by our admissions panel and we make conditional offers at various stages. For instance, we will make early offers to applicants with outstanding academic merit. Therefore the earlier you apply the better. We may also place a number of applicants on a Waiting List and those applicants may be offered places (the decisions will be made in mid or late August 2020) if such are available. We will not disclose to applicants their position on the Waiting List as that is not a helpful indicator of their chance of securing a place in August, given that we have no means of predicting the number of places which may become available. If you are from the Mainland or another jurisdiction and are placed on the Waiting List, you must ensure you extend your respective visas so that you are able to take up a place if offered.
We will send rejection letters to those applicants whose law qualifications do not meet our entry standard.
One year full-time.
The CUHK Graduate Law Centre, 2/F, Bank of America Tower, Central.
|Delivery mode:
Students participate in large and small group sessions. All classes are highly participatory and students will receive regular individual feedback on their work. Assessment is continuous and includes exercises on writing, drafting and oral advocacy.
|Study options:
The Programme is taught in two stages. In the first stage of the Programme you will study core practice areas and develop core skills. In the second stage you will choose from a wide range of electives that are designed to reflect the range of work undertaken by solicitors and barristers in practice.
The first eleven electives listed below will be taught over the course of term 2. The last elective, Trial Advocacy, will be taught intensively in the summer term.
It is possible that an elective may not be offered if it is selected by too few students. More
Stage 1: The compulsory Core courses
Stage 2: The Elective courses. You must choose FIVE in total
* Bar Electives
Note: Students intending to join the Bar are required to take LAWS5020 and 2 out of the 3 Bar Electives (LAWS5011, 5022 and 5023).
|Additional learning & development opportunities:
Student Scholarships, Prizes.
|Fees per academic year:
UGC-funded places and Distinguished Scholarship places (for local students): HK$42,100;
UGC-funded places and Distinguished Scholarship places (for non-local students): HK$145,000;
Self-financed places: HK$193,800.
(Subject to annual review.)
|Scholarships and Prizes:
HKSAR Government Scholarships (for UGC-funded postgraduate students)
Association of China-Appointed Attesting Officers Scholarships
Law Society of Hong Kong/Bloomsbury Books Prizes
Prize for Criminal Litigation Practice
Sir Oswald Cheung Memorial Fund PCLL Scholarship
The Boase Cohen & Collins Prize for Civil Litigation Practice
The Cheng, Yeung & Co. Prize for Personal Injuries Practice
The Hong Kong Bar Association Prize for Conference Skills and Opinion Writing
The Hong Kong Bar Association Prize for Trial Advocacy
The Jarvis & Kensington Prize for Trial Advocacy
The Law Society of Hong Kong Prize for Professional Practice
The Robertsons Prize for Writing and Drafting Litigation Documents
|Career options include:
In- house Counsel.
Public Servant.
|Admission to practice:
Students may be eligible to apply for admission as a Solicitor or Barrister of the High Court of Hong Kong after completing the PCLL and a training contract (2 years) or pupillage (1 year).
|Further study options:
Postgraduate studies for Master or PhD degrees.
|Student housing:
Only UGC-funded students are eligible to apply for accommodation in Postgraduate Halls on the Shatin Campus. Please note that the PCLL is taught at the CUHK Graduate Law Centre in Central.


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Encode String to Only Alphanumeric Chars
If you need to encode a string with all sorts of problem characters into a URL-safe string, urlencode() is not right solution.
What you need is a function that will give you only numbers and letters. No %'s or &'s, spaces, or any other non-alphanumeric character.
For this we will use PHP's bin2hex() function, and its pack() function.
For example, it can convert: "(!X>4Ob=h/&hN\'" into this much nicer string: "2821583e344f623d682f26684e5c27".
Here are the functions you need:
function hex_encode($string) { return bin2hex($string); } function hex_decode($string) { return pack("H*", $string); }


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So Cliff Richard is warbling, the plum pudding is warming and everyone is getting excited about the annual night out and their festive break. All sounds fantastic and good will is in the air. By the end of the night however statistics show that one in two parties end up with colleagues fighting, one in three with incidents of sexual harassment, and one in five with accidents involving employees. 20% admitted to having vomited at a party and 3% admitted to having cheated on their significant other.
It can be a HR nightmare but no fear our fellow HR comrades, dulann.com is here to help you too have a peaceful break:
- Try and avoid having a Christmas party that precedes a work day so any "recovery" time is not a workplace issue. If that's not possible, proactively tell employees what you expect of them during the event and the day after." This can easily be done in a very light-hearted manner, maybe even through an email.
- Make sure that your company policy on harassment is up to date. If you can bring it to the attention of all employees then even better. You don't want to be a killjoy but your company does need to run a professional outing and you can tactfully introduce an update to the policy a week in advance. This is a great way to prevent any unwanted attention under the Christmas baubles. By the way, no mistletoe!
- Designate responsibility for supervising the event to specific line managers, after all you will want to let your own hair down also. Provide them with guidelines on dealing with drunk or disorderly employees. Gently reminding a slightly "worse for wear" employee that they may not feel too good in the morning may well have the desired effect of them substituting alcohol for water or soft drinks. We have seen this in action and it works a treat.
- If the company is paying for alcohol, make sure that there is a reasonable limit. Personally we would avoid this entirely but if you are then help avoid the misuse of alcohol by ensuring there is plenty of non-alcoholic drinks and food readily available.
- If you are getting the caterers in, make sure and establish that all of their staff are trained to the mandatory food safety standards. You certainly don't want a bout of food poisoning to run through the entire office! Can have impacts lasting a lot longer than a week!
- As an employer, remember that you have a duty of care towards your staff and therefore have a responsibility to ensure that they get home safely. You may not necessarily wish to provide a bus or taxi service but you can at least encourage employees to either pre-book taxis or to research late night public transport options. If the event is offsite, you could event provide employees with a list of transport options.
- Please remember that Christmas is a Christian celebration and is not observed by every religion. Although some employees may not celebrate Christmas, these employees should not be discriminated against and should be given the choice to attend the "Office" Party as opposed to the "Christmas"
- Images of the Christmas party going viral on social media sites never happens for all the right reasons. It may be humbug, but normal rules when representing the company, also apply at the Christmas party. Time to ensure those social media policies are fully up to date.
- Make sure managers/supervisors are aware that they have extra responsibilities because of their position in the company. Discussions about performance, promotion, salary or career prospects at the Christmas party should be avoided at all costs, especially if alcohol has been taken. In the case of Nixon v Ross Coates, a Manager knew of an employee's pregnancy and began speculating at the office party with other employees about who the child's father might be. It didn't end well !
As long as the organisation takes appropriate steps, there should in most cases hopefully be no incidents and if there are, the repercussions will certainly be minimised.
From all the team here at dulann.com, we wish you a healthy and happy Christmas break. Remember to relax and enjoy the festive season.


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The "Chrysanthos Trigeod Color Wheel Puzzle" lesson plans contain nine lessons aimed at kindergarten students. The material covers three key areas an introduction to the color wheel, mathematics focus and language focus.
Credit for the work is attributed to Ms. Rose Marcelli RECE, OCT a designated early childhood educator and Ontario certified teacher. The lesson plans have been implemented in a full-day kindergarten classroom in Ontario.
Lesson I – Students manipulate the Trigeod shapes to create images in 2D and 3D. The goal is to create something they imagine.
Lesson II – Students go on a scavenger hunt collecting and classify colored shapes according to their color relative to the color wheel.
Lesson III – Students perform experiments with color by identifying primary colors then experimenting with mixing colors to create other colors.
Lesson IV – Students learn to represent and demonstrate their understanding of numbers 1 to 10 using the Trigeod shapes.
Lesson V – Students sort, classify and compare objects based on color.
Lesson VI – Students identify, reproduce and extend repeating patterns through investigation using the Trigeod shape.
Lesson VII – Students learn to recognise quantities of objects without counting and concepts of addition and subtraction using the Trigeod shapes as manipulatives.
Lesson VIII – Students learn to represent the letter of the alphabet using the Trigeod shapes.
Lesson IX – Students learn to label their designs created in Lesson I with simple language.


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Let's imagine that you need to get high quality 3D imagery by the tight deadline. Are you sure that you know what should you do? What exactly would you have to tell your 3D visualizer? Making up a detailed task description is always time-consuming, and you may be too busy for that. Also, sometimes you have to see the first results of your work before making necessary corrections, which means that no task description will be 100 percent accurate. At this point, you may not be able to tell for sure to your 3D visualizer or other 3D rendering services what you want to see in a 3D render – but you still need it!
While these problems are almost inevitable in any project work, they can become too distressing for both parties. For example, you may include lots of information that your 3D visualizers don't need, and they will have to spend additional time and effort on sorting everything out. On the contrary, experienced visualizers can "fill in the gaps" in your task information on their own, and you may not always be happy with the end result. In any case, you can't afford spending too much time on routine tasks, or you'll soon stop being a designer and turn into a businessperson.
The question is – what should you do to achieve perfect mutual understanding without wasting each other's time? In order to create an accurate technical assignment for your 3D visualizer, you absolutely need to consider the following suggestions.
- Provide a detailed floor plan, including furniture layout. Such a plan is an integral part of any design project. You can easily create it with the use of professional software applications such as ArchiCAD or AutoCAD, or even draw it by yourself. It is really important for you to mention the room dimensions – its height and the height of windows and doors. If you have a photo of the space you create design for, be sure to include it too in technical assignment for your 3D visualizer.
- Find appropriate references. Nowadays, there are millions of sketches, pictures and photographs of interior designs available on the Internet. If you like something and want to recreate it in your design, feel free to show pictures to your 3D visualizer as a reference. A picture is always more effective than a verbal feature, and websites like Houzz or Pinterest will certainly have images that you need.
- Describe the client's personal preferences. If your client is an avid fan of wood or likes all shades of blue, make sure to share this info with your 3D visualizer. Moreover, if there is something that your client strongly dislikes, let them know right away. Such approach will not only guarantee your satisfaction with quality of the design or arhcitectural rendering, but the client's satisfaction as well.
These are the minimum requirements for creating a precise, photorealistic 3D render of your design project by 3D visualizer. While there certainly will be more corrections and suggestions, they are an inevitable part of creating a perfect design. In any case, the more specific your task definition is at the beginning of communication with 3D visualizer, the more accurate and true to life the 3D rendering becomes. As you can see, our recommendations are completely realistic and they will certainly improve your own understanding of what needs to be done in your project.
Present your architectural project like a piece of art with AI-powered CGI
Of course, all 3D visualizers have different education, experience and skills, they works in different 3D render services. You'll have to be patient and careful when working with beginner 3D visualizer, as it will be necessary to explain everything, including the smallest, most obvious details. However, if you want to save time and spend it more wisely, you simply have to choose professional 3D visualizers. Don't be surprised if your clients start thanking you and recommending your services more often, ensuring constant flow of new requests and interesting projects.
Keith Gardner
Senior Project Manager
Keith is a seasoned scrum master who can turn even a team of complete strangers into a well-oiled machine. Outside of work, he is the king of social games and a caring dad for a ferret Tyra.


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Khoo Teck Puat Hospital combines medical expertise with high standards of personalised care, set within a healing environment. We provide a comprehensive range of acute medical and surgical specialist care, including but not limited to:
We aim to be a hassle-free hospital where patients are placed in the centre of all systems and processes. We constantly innovate and experiment with new ways to provide care by learning from other industries.
At Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, we promise you the individual attention that you need to ensure you get the most out of our medical care.
Registration for admission will be done at the Acute & Emergency Department (A&E) or in the wards.
We regret that there may be occasions where your admission is delayed due to bed unavailability. In such situations, we will offer you an alternative choice of accommodation.
Documents to Bring
For your admission registration, please bring the following original documents:
If you have any of the following documents, please bring them along:
During Your Stay
What To Bring
What Not To Bring
Please do not bring excessive cash or valuables. If you have these items with you during admission, please arrange for them to be taken home or inform the ward nurses for safekeeping.
Personal Safety
Identification Wristband
An identification wristband with your name, NRIC and ward number will be given to you. Please wear it at all times while you are in the hospital. Red wristbands are for patients with drug allergies; white bands are for patients with no known allergies and green bands are for patients with risk for falls.
Food Service
A choice of Chinese, Indian, Muslim, Western and Vegetarian menus are available for your daily selection. Our dietitians and Executive Chef supervise the preparation and menu planning of your meals to ensure that you receive a balanced and nutritious diet. For patients with specific needs, we also prepare personal therapeutic diets as advised by the dietitians.
Mobile Phones
The use of mobile phones in the Intensive Care Units is prohibited as they can interfere with medical equipment used to monitor patients. Please switch off all mobile phones while in these patient care areas.
Smoking is not allowed on the hospital compounds. We seek your co-operation to help us maintain a healthy smoke-free environment.
Rest and Relax
Feel free to make use of the amenities available in the patient lounge area.
Help us to keep the restrooms clean. This will reduce the spread of infectious diseases within the hospital.
For a safe and comfortable stay, please observe the following:
Nurses call system
Caring for you during your stay here is our responsibility. Please make use of the call system to alert us should you require assistance. The call bells can be found at the bedside. Press the red/ orange button to call for assistance. Should you require assistance while you are in the restroom, pull the red cord lightly for assistance
Emergency exits
The emergency exits are located at the front/ back of each ward.
You will be looked after by a team of doctors comprising medical specialists, assisted by Medical Officers and House Officers. During your stay, we may conduct medical investigations such as laboratory tests, X-ray and other procedures to identify or treat your medical problem.
Daily Ward Routine
Our doctors perform their routine ward rounds everyday. They are also scheduled to be on-call on a 24-hour basis to attend to patients who may need urgent medical attention. The routine in the ward also include activities such as medication, meals and bedtime.
Medication rounds usually begin at 0800hrs, 1400hrs and 2000hrs. Nurses serving medications are donned in an apron that indicates "Serving Medication – Please Do Not Disturb". This is to prevent them from getting distracted by patients, nurses and visitor when serving medications. Kindly seek assistance from other nurses if required.
We encourage you to participate actively in your care and ask questions if you are in doubt regarding your diagnosis, treatment plan and preliminary date for discharge.
Nursing Care
We practice patient-centered nursing care in the ward. A trained nurse is assigned to a group of patients during each shift and a photo of the nurse will be displayed on the board in the ward.
Please feel free to approach our nurses if you have any concerns regarding your nursing care.
Clinical Pathway
We use clinical pathways for specific diagnosis or procedure. Clinical pathways are plans of specialised care that indicate the sequencing of care by clinicians, nurses and allied staff. These are designed to minimise delays, improve resource utilization and maximize the quality of care through timely coordination and collaboration.
|Services and Amenities
|ATM & AXS machines
|Tower A; Basement 1
|Retail shops
|Tower B; Level 1, Basement 1
|Gifts and Florist
|Tower C; Main Lobby
|Tower C; Level 1
|Food Court
|Tower C; Level 1
Ward Visiting Hours
12.00pm - 2.00pm
5.00pm - 8.00pm
To ensure that you have adequate rest, visiting hours are scheduled twice daily (see hours above). Visitors are advised to adhere to the visiting hours so that all patients can have proper rest.
Do ask your loved ones to keep the noise level down when they are visiting the patient, as noise is a source of stress for those who are unwell.
Visiting the General, ICU & ISO Wards
To allow other patients to rest, we will allow up to the following numbers of visitors at any one time during visiting hours for each patient:
For General Wards - maximum of 4 visitors
For ICUs & ISO Ward - maximum of 2 visitors
Visitors with Children
For infection control and safety reasons, we strongly advise you not to bring children of the following ages into the wards:
For General Wards - Children below the age of 7
For ICUs & ISO Ward - Children below the age of 12
Patients' Confidentiality
KTPH has a duty to protect our patients' confidentiality at all times. Photography and videography of patients and their families are not allowed.
We encourage your family to be our active partners-in-care to help you on the road to recovery.
Our nurses may therefore request participation of your family members in nursing activities such as feeding during meals, medication and bathing time. This will allow them to show emotional and psychological support as well as learn how to care for you at home after discharge.
Patient Education
We believe in empowering you and your family with knowledge on health matters as this will help you understand and cope with your condition better. This is made possible through our Patient Education Programmes, regular health fairs, public forums and various community outreach efforts.
Your doctor will, at an appropriate time, advise you when you can expect to be discharged. As part of our total patient care service, our nursing officer or staff nurse will work with you and your family members to plan for your continuing care after discharge. You and your family may also be taught simple self-care nursing procedures.
Upon Discharge
Before you leave, you will receive the following:
Your ward class status upon discharge will determine your follow-up charges at the SOC. If you are discharged from a class A or B1 ward, you will be seen as a private patient. If you are discharged from a class B2 or C ward, you will be seen as a subsidised patient .
For your safety, we advise that you have a relative or friend accompany you home.
If you are going home alone, please inform the nurse.
We wish you good health and a quick recovery.


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A wealth of wineries, a charming downtown with numerous shops and restaurants, and the scenic Lake Grapevine are just a few of the reasons to visit Grapevine.
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Texas Hill Country Olive Company in Dripping Springs
The Texas Hill Country Olive Company is an award-winning maker of authentic olive oils and balsamic vinegars, offering tastings, tours, events and more.
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State Fair of Texas
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