I'm Betting on Elon - <AUTHOR> http://danielodio.com/im-betting-on-elon? <comment><USER3> My problem with the "I'm betting on Elon" approach is that the market is clearly _already_ betting on Elon, to the point of somewhere between 10-40x a sensible company valuation. If you buy now, you're betting on a clearly ridiculously-optimistic valuation being not quite ridiculously-optimistic enough. You're not the first person to have considered that the company might be successful and grow exponentially in the future -- that's already priced in to the stock!

Talking about long-term bets, it would be interesting to read about how the electric car future might tie into the driverless car future. My understanding is that we'll have many fewer cars around in the driverless future, even if the cars that we do have are electric.

<comment><USER4> The market is betting more heavily against Elon. TSLA is the ninth most shorted stock - see [http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nasdaqshort- hig...](http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nasdaqshort- highlites.html#shortF) .

It's so heavily shorted that there's a possibility of a short squeeze, which I would find quite delicious - not because I own TSLA, but because I want to see people hoping for failure get screwed.

<comment><USER5> What makes you think that being short on a stock is the same as hoping for failure? I hope Tesla is fantastically successful, but I would consider shorting it if I were doing such things these days. They're two totally separate things.

<comment><USER4> I don't think they're separate. Shorting a stock means you make money from the stock's decline, and therefore from the company's failure. You hope to make money from your investment, so you hope for the company to fail, at least indirectly.

Furthermore, shorting a stock can harm the firm. Big short positions drive down the stock price, which affects public sentiment (their stock is down, they must be failing, I won't buy their car because they may not be here next year), makes it harder for them to retain employees, makes it harder to raise money by issuing more stock or bonds, etc. By shorting a stock, you are contributing to that company's failure (though of course the effect is miniscule for retail investors like me).

I would not buy even a undervalued stock for a tobacco company, because I don't want to support producers of tobacco products. And I don't want to impede progress in electric cars by shorting their producers, even if I think their stocks are overvalued. There's plenty of other investments available that align my finances with my hopes.

<comment><USER5> Short selling is nothing more than selling before you buy. If you believe that short selling drives prices down, then you believe that taking long positions drives it up. Neither is true.

Short selling provides more information and better liquidity to the market. It's a good thing.

<comment><USER4> Of course short selling drives prices down, while long positions drive prices up. That's basic supply and demand. What else could determine prices?

I agree that short selling is overall a good thing, though it can also be abused (e.g. naked shorts). I am not claiming any market abuse in the case of Tesla.

Most people do not buy individual stocks based purely on a risk calculation. They also want to believe that the firms are working for good, not evil, because buying a stock means you own part of that company, and therefore are in some small way responsible for its actions.

Short selling is the same, but in the opposite direction. You own a negative fraction of that company, and so your moral relationship to it has a minus sign. I think that Tesla is a good company. But some people think that owning no TSLA is still too much, and I hope they get burned (financially).

<comment><USER5> Do you think it is ok to sell a stock you think is overvalued and then buy back in at a lower price? Isn't that what shorting is?

As an aside you may enjoy this article written by an old professor of mine that goes into some of this tangentially. Ignore the snark - it's just his personality/sense of humor [http://leedsonfinance.com/wp- content/uploads/2009/06/market-...](http://leedsonfinance.com/wp- content/uploads/2009/06/market-update-june-13.pdf)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> The lesson I draw from Tesla is that it's possible (even straightforward) to produce an amazing car if you're willing to lose a ton of money on each one and your competitors (mainstream auto makers) aren't. I say this because Tesla has, to date, been poor at controlling costs, enough so that the feds (Tesla's creditors) are concerned about their balance sheet, and Wall Street has hammered the stock.

For example, Tesla used to lose $30M a month. Last quarter it brought in hundreds of millions more in revenue, but still lost ~$30M a month. At some point, they hope to stop losing money, but then they're about to create two new products which will also incur large R&D costs. To date, Tesla has lost about a billion dollars, or $50K per car sold, assuming they sell 20K cars next year.

So to a consumer, Tesla's cars look amazing compared to what else is on the market (after all, they're losing money on each one, which their competitors are unwilling to do); to an accountant, the company looks worrysome, and to an investor, the company looks like either a tremendous deal or a fantastic lemon, depending on the investors views about the size of the market, competition, and ability to control costs. At current rates, they will have more liabilities than assets three months.

Once Tesla can reign in their costs they can rewrite this story, and there's a good chance they can. Whether they can make electric cars more cheaply than mainstream automakers in the long term is, in my mind, an open question.

<comment><USER7> Note that Toyota also lost money for several years on the Prius as is GM on the Volt [http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us- generalmotors-a...](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us- generalmotors-autos-volt-idUSBRE88904J20120910) \- there is a learning curve to play in this space. Since everyone is keeping their technology private it won't be cheaper for later entrants.

There will be an experience curve for the manufacturing which will lead to it becoming increasingly productive and cheaper [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects#The_ex...](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects#The_experience_curve)

As a comparison Boeing is reported to have an experienced a curve of 84% (costs decreasing 16% every time production units doubled) on the 777. Tesla doesn't have the legacy manufacturing infrastructure and can use far more automated methods, especially if they manufacture a large amount of the car themselves instead of outsourcing. It will be interesting to see what Tesla's numbers turn out to be.

<comment><USER6> Tesla's gross margins are currently 8% (whereas BMW is something like 19%) and they expect it to increase to 25% in one year alone. It's already up significantly from negative territory (I shudder to think what it was on the Roadster), but they still have to make the car another 18.5% cheaper. I wonder if they're aiming to squeeze that from the battery cost, in which case it's up to Panasonic, I suppose.

<comment><USER8> They're about to hit a volume discount from Panasonic, according to the earnings call. There are a number of other efficiencies they've identified. On the call Elon recounts some anecdotes about parts suppliers not being prepared in 2012 for the volume of orders, inefficient tire shipments, etc.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> From the article he references:

"Are there that many luxury car buyers out there who are willing to live with the limitations of an electric car? It seems doubtful to me."

Limitations? What limitations? I've been driving mine for 2 months and it's been a freeing experience. It doesn't go as far? My old ICE didn't go as far on a tank and required 10x the cost to fill up. I no longer feel guilty about driving to the grocery store a few miles away because I know I'm running my car at it's least efficient state. I just took a trip this weekend to some relatives in another part of my state (GA) with no concerns about range or having to compromise to extend it. Google Maps in the car has already saved me many times from heading into bad traffic (I would never remember to check traffic on my phone beforehand).

Honestly, if I'm being limited in some way, I'm not seeing it.

<comment><USER10> _Limitations? What limitations?_

They are overwhelmingly obvious. The simple fact is that 'filling up' is harder to do- there are far, far fewer stations, and the actual act of charging takes a not inconsiderable amount of time. The cost argument is valid, but the point is that luxury car owners are less likely to worry about the price of gas, given that they are already rich enough to buy a luxury car.

I'm not saying you are wrong in your assertions, clearly the car suits you well. But to suggest that there are no limitations flies in the face of all evidence.

<comment><USER11> What evidence? The evidence shows very clearly that the majority oft people drive less than 80 miles a day. To suggest that ICE cars have no limitations in these ranges does indeed fly in the face. of all evidence.

<comment><USER10> But you've just gone from "no limitations" to "no limitations as long as you travel within 80 miles".

So 80 miles should be considered a limitation, no?

<comment><USER12> Convincing a believer otherwise of what they believe in is an exercise in futility.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> Besides the stocket market evaluations and all those considerations, I have to say that I am amazed how spoiled America is sometimes.

How I wish we had such an entrepreneur in Europe, someone willing to shake the status quo and speed up the process of making the future happen.

Tesla is a company that is trying to make AMERICAN electric cars, he should encouraged and cheered. People with some money and liberal views should be jumping on those cars, it's History in the making, a true revolution. I really hope he suceeds, that'd be an encouraging sign that science and technology can actually have a good impact on climate and consumer practices vis à vis greenhouse gases and the approach to modernity.

<comment><USER14> > _Tesla is a company that is trying to make AMERICAN electric cars, he should > encouraged and cheered_ ... _science and technology can actually have a good > impact on climate and consumer practices vis à vis greenhouse gases and the > approach to modernity._

A vastly more effective approach would be to encourage and cheer those trying to wean America from its addiction to automobiles....

Elon does cool things, but it's not clear Tesla really represents a desirable future.

<comment><USER13> I agree with you. I am from Europe where mass transit and reliable and efficient public transportation has been implemented and enjoyed by the population for a long time, I think this is a way for the future.

Siemens, a German company and Alstom, a French one both have the technology to make 200+mph on a train happen in the USA.

The West Coast for example could and SHOULD have a HST from Vancouver to San Diego. By car that's roughly a 1400 miles trip or something like a 15 hours drive (give or take). With a HST, that suddenly becomes a 8 hour trip with next to no greenhouse gas emissions per person while everyone just chills out browsing the interwebs in a comfy seat.

Same for the East Coast, there should be some sort of East Coast HST as well (something to the tune of Boston -> NYC -> Philly -> DC -> somehow down to Florida or some other route, I don't live in the States).

If Germany, Spain, France, Japan and China have that, there's no reason why the USA shouldn't be able to do it as well.

EDIT: By saying that I am not implying that the "middle of America" should not benefit from HST as well, but its population density and sheer size makes that less cost-feasable.

<comment><USER15> There is already a Boston-DC semi-HST:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acela_Express>

There is a HST system under development in California, with the first segment planned for completion by 2017, with the rest scheduled in just 25 short years:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail>

<comment><USER13> Indeed, it uses TGV (the French HST) technology, mixed with some Canadian tech as well.

If anyone wants to read more about this:

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acela_Express>

The "Criticism" section highlights how the current rails infrastructure in the USA currently places a limitation on the speeds the train can achieve. Still a reasonable good experiment. With President Obama's mention of the structurally deficient bridges in the States, maybe it will change for the better. I surely hope so.

<comment><USER16> Yeah, with those restrictions, Acela is next to useless as an upgrade from Amtrak, at a much higher ticket cost. I really wish we could just do a proper job and make a Lyon-Paris TGV-like route between Washington and Boston.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> Sometimes I feel like Tesla is the NeXT of cars. Technologically impressive, but ahead of its time.

In 15 years electric cars will have much more market share, question is, will Tesla still be there leading the pack?

Maybe they can reverse acquire some ailing car company ;)

<comment><USER18> In an alternative fictional universe Elon will be hired by Honda to survive a near death spiral and will then bring in the team from Tesla to create Honda 2.0

</comment></comment><comment><USER19> That page is in an eternal redirect loop (FF19/Win7). With a redirect to self every three seconds it is not easy to read.

<comment><USER20> Hey, I'm the creator of the blogging platform he's running on and am trying to replicate this. Do you have cookies or js off or any other notable change from stock?

<comment><USER20> Thanks a lot for the info, everyone. I can't replicate this even with all the same addons installed, but I'm working on it...

<comment><USER21> Did it for me with ghostery only, chrome Version 24.0.1312.57 on osx 10.7. Escape stopped the insanity.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER22> I love Tesla as a company, but TSLA as a stock is broken. There seems to be serious manipulation going on -- right before long annual options expiry, the price drops, then pops right after. There was shadiness the previous year related to a drop, then announcing a departure of some mid-level exec, then a pop. I generally stick to options for playing things like AAPL, TSLA, etc. where it will move based on some specific accomplishments, but TSLA is one I own as stock directly.

</comment><comment><USER23> The idea that TSLA's valuation should be modeled in the same was as Ford, GM, et al is so preposterous that I have trouble comprehending how someone can make the point in an honest fashion.

I think TSLA is richly valued and I would not buy it now (nor do I own shares), but saying it should have a similar P/S or EV/FCF to F is like saying that VMWare is overvalued by virtue of it having a higher valuation than HP.

</comment><comment> brown9-2 Of course, every other person who bought stock in a company after bad news where the company ended up going on to fail had the same reasoning:

\- critics don't understand the master plan

\- I'm betting on CEO X, and the market just doesn't understand him/her

</comment><comment><USER24> There is a lot of Elon love on HN - but the analysis here is fundamentally correct - bet on winners. And Elon will either win big or blow up big. Its a pretty good bet IMO.

And I am amazed to see the "relentlessly resourceful" tag be dropped casually in here - even if the author is part of the SV-mafia its still amazing what impact one mans' essays are having.

So that makes two people to bet on ...

</comment><comment><USER25> A minor correction to this article, to the best of my knowledge Mercedes-Benz uses batteries produced by Deutsche Accumotive (a joint-venture of Daimler and Evonik) both in the smart electric drive and the forthcoming B-Class E-Cell. The Tesla batteries were only used in pre-production smart electric drives, as a replacement for the old ZEBRA NaNiCl batteries.

</comment><comment><USER26> Well... If the profit margin guidance for the next quarters is correct, and they are not hit by anything unexpected, the company should be trading at around 15 P/E by the end of 2013 at the current share price. Which would be great... But that means that there isn't likely to be any significant share price growth until then.

One problem with that analysis is that they have overpromised and underdelivered a bit in the past.

Another issue is that they only got 6000 new reservations in the last quarter. For them to have significant growth they need a lot more. And this is in a quarter where they were awarded car of the year and got fantastic reviews (except that NYT one).

I bet these reasons, combined with a standard sell-off of a stock that has increased by a lot the last quarter, and that you now really have to be patient for another or two quarters before anything significant happens, is why the stock is down today.

Personally, I am disappointed by the number of new reservations. I think it is far too low for a car with such stellar reviews.

I had hoped they would have more than 20000 reservations currently. 15-16000 is not even enough to use their full capacity for the year, so they need to start selling more.

I had also hoped the production rate would have been higher. 400 cars per week is also not enough in the long run. Elon talked about reaching 500 by the summer, and that really isn't that great. He also said that theoretically they didn't need to get more reservations in 2013, as they would have enough to use up their capacity. That also worried me.

I have seen analyst say they will produce 30000 cars in 2014. If that is the case, the share price is really not going to move a lot from current levels. Because the growth is just too small.

So I think a lot of shareholders feel like me, that the growth isn't significant enough.

I guess we need to wait another couple of quarters before we can say anything.

<comment><USER27> It is a hundred thousand dollar, its not like the market is large. Sure there are many buyers out there with good money to spend but there are far more exciting cars in that price range. Finally, its electric ONLY. Supercharger network or not, your tied to cord.

To put their numbers in perspective versus their losses and debts, they want to sell nearly twenty thousand cards this year. Mercedes sold more than that in January just in the United States. Toyota sells that many cars in four days, US alone! There are also stories about supplier problems, something small volume cars suffer a lot.

Sure the luxury market doesn't put up those numbers but the brands there are well established and storied. Tesla is neither.

Tesla's fate is probably to be bought by Mercedes or similar. Someone who has the ability to put a large number of these on the road, with a large support network, and a trusted name

<comment><USER28> > Sure there are many buyers out there with good money to spend but there are > far more exciting cars in that price range.

Really? I can't think of one.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER29> Full Disclosure: I shorted a few weeks ago when the NYT article came out and covered today.

I would not bet on TSLA the stock just yet. They can be successful and profitable and yet still not come close to the current stock price (P/E contraction, future equity dilution). Most importantly, the thing which stemmed the drop today was a short-sale restriction (a circuit breaker after it falls 10%)

What would be a buy signal for me is when the car cost can be brought down to the 35-40K range (which, based on reports from mercedes benz and bmw, is the most profitable segment)

</comment><comment><USER30> I think it's weird to bet on the person instead of the company. I'd hate to be in a company or team where outsiders focused on one person.

<comment><USER31> That has its peeves/perks, people don't want to say they work for apple anymore just to avoid the attention; a company of one.

</comment></comment><comment><USER32> Elon isn't competing against Ford. He's competing against Exxon.

 _EDIT_ mkt cap: Ford 47.24B <https://www.google.com/search?q=f> Exxon 398.83B <https://www.google.com/search?q=xom>

<comment><USER33> Here's a contrarian investment approach: if what you say is true, then buy Exxon. The only way electric vehicles and the "green" movement maintain momentum is if oil prices stay high. Consequently, Exxon wins.

</comment></comment><comment><USER34> The absolute best way to buy stocks is to wait until something happens in the market that seems to be based on emotions and then bet the other way. 2 best examples I can remember where I noticed this was when Citi was at $1 despite the fact we knew the bailout was coming (I bought, but not enough) and when Facebook was at $17 because investors kept getting hammered with "Facebook hasn't figured out mobile" shit over and over. Didn't buy then because I was super broke ([http://tommy.authpad.com/the-one-year-anniversary-of- sleepin...](http://tommy.authpad.com/the-one-year-anniversary-of-sleeping-in- the-freezing-cold-without-power-or-heat-in-the-middle-of-a-crime-scene))

<comment><USER19> Of course, the difficulty is in picking the low point.

<comment><USER34> Finding the bottom doesn't matter, that's impossible so don't even think about that. Just say "the market doesn't seem to be operating rationally today, I'll bet against it"

<comment><USER35> There's always support at 0.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER36> I'm looking forward to purchasing a Volkswagen XL1.

[http://theage.drive.com.au/motor-reviews/worlds-most- efficie...](http://theage.drive.com.au/motor-reviews/worlds-most-efficient- car-20130222-2ev0a.html)

Since it gets 261 MPG, I can drive across the entire United States and only make one stop for refueling, using around 9 gallons of diesel for the whole trip. Driving with a friend at 60mph and bringing a sack lunch, we can even make the trip in only 38 hours since there will be no overnight recharging stops.

And when the 5.5kWh Lithium Ion battery fails, it will only cost 1/15 the replacement cost of a 85kWh Lithium Ion battery.

</comment><comment><USER37> From the blog post, "Tesla stock is down almost 10% today, after its 2012 earnings report became public. Tesla missed its projections and investors hammered the stock in response."

I guess that's what you call contrarian investing. Sometimes that works just fine. Sometimes that doesn't work so well. People who have extra money to buy speculative stocks can make their own call on this, I guess.

I found it interesting that there were many news reports about the Tesla fourth quarter results call yesterday.

"Tesla 4Q net loss widens on costs for new car"

[http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-02-20/tesla-4q-net- loss-...](http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-02-20/tesla-4q-net-loss-widens- on-costs-for-new-car)

"As Tesla Eyes Profit, Elon Musk Wants to Punch Himself in the Face"

[http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-20/as-tesla- eye...](http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-20/as-tesla-eyes-profit- elon-musk-wants-to-punch-himself-in-the-face)

"Loss Widens at Electric-Car Maker"

[http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732354920457831...](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323549204578316082000311770.html)

"Tesla's Earnings Indicate Some Customer Cancellations"

[http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/teslas-earnings- indic...](http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/teslas-earnings-indicate- some-customer-cancellations/)

"Tesla posts revenue of $306 million, larger-than-expected loss"

[http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos- tesla-2...](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos- tesla-2012-earnings-announced-20130220,0,7725.story)

So, yeah, some investors will read all that and still bet on Tesla's stock having a rising value over their investment time frame. But customers who are thinking about buying the car might wonder if the company has enough financial strength, while losing money on every car it sells, to provide long-term customer service and the promised completion of the Supercharger network, etc. If it's your money, spend it how you like, but be sure to diversify for maximum safety.

</comment><comment><USER38> I betted on Elon and bought TSLA at 16, 22, 28, and 33. When I saw the CEO of Toyota with Elon behind the same podium, I knew he had been vetted by the best in the business. Ref: [http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/lh9s3JaOMRr/Gov+Arnold+Schwar...](http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/lh9s3JaOMRr/Gov+Arnold+Schwarzenegger+Tesla+Motors+Make/lVfYHyKChJZ/Elon+Musk)

</comment><comment><USER39> My first thought for this was, wow cool looking site. I then played around with the responsive nature of it.

<comment><AUTHOR> What did you think? It's a new blogging platform called SETT. I'm sure @tynan the creator would love to get your thoughts on it. - <USER2>

</comment></comment><comment><USER40> I'm also a Musketeer.

I think the company as a whole executes brilliantly, but I decided to allocate a good chunk of my (measly) portfolio to TSLA as a result of Elon's track record and vision.

I wonder if we'll soon see a prospectus for the "Musk Fund" containing only companies that he's been involved in...

</comment><comment><USER41> At the end of the day, you are only "betting". When you know something for sure, I'll pay attention.

<comment><AUTHOR> When we know it for sure, the stock will be in a much different place. -<USER2>
</comment></comment><comment><USER42> The page refreshes itself continuously. How did you even manage that?

(I block 3rd party cookies)

<comment><USER20> I created the blogging platform he's using... the redirect is supposed to happen once to set a cookie from the platform, but apparently isn't working. Would you mind telling me what browser/version/os you use so that I can replicate and fix this?

<comment><USER43> Not the grandparent, but it does it in Google Chrome v26.0.1410.10 dev on Mac OS X Lion v10.8.2

I have third-party cookies blocked.

<comment><USER20> Thanks for the info and sorry for the bad reading experience... looking into it now.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER44> "Tesla absolutely will get to Ford's volume production numbers with this strategy"

really? maybe eventually. we are a ways off from mass market all electric vehicles.

</comment><comment><USER45> Elon is betting on SpaceX.

</comment><comment><USER46> It's not hard to bet on a massively successful entrepreneur.</comment>


Lund-based UserApp wants to help developers focus on what they do best - <AUTHOR> http://swedishstartupspace.com/2013/10/08/userapp/

<comment><USER2> As an Indian, this topic is very funny, as "lund", in north indian slang, means "penis", and that kinda changes the meaning of the whole topic

<comment><USER3> Aww man :( What's the word for "awesomeness"? So I could tell the mod to update it ;)

<comment><USER4> Don't fret - I'm pretty sure it isn't the same in other Indian languages :-)

That said, I'm a bit leery about doing user management using third party libraries and I looked at the linked HN page to find the same concerns expressed. Please explain more about how you plan to address security concerns. Good luck!

P.S: "Mast" as posted by architgupta means "Cool/good". As always, have fun!

</comment></comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> We launched UserApp (www.userapp.io) three days ago here on HN. Related thread: [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6500787](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6500787)

</comment><comment><USER5> Grattis. Kör hårt nu!

<comment><USER3> Tack! Ja, vi får väl visa vad vi svenskar går för nu ;)

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> Great news for Lund and Sweden!

</comment><comment><USER7> Any update when other frameworks will be coming out for UserApp?

<comment><USER3> Do you mean like client libraries for other languages than javascript? If so, what frameworks/languages do you have in mind?

<comment><USER7> Yeh, and a PHP one would be very nice. Also more demo apps would be helpful. Love the product and can not wait to build with it.

<comment><USER3> PHP is actually next on the list, but I can't say when it will be ready, but shouldn't take long. I think I have some ideas for another demo app in mind, I guess we have too see when I get the time to actually put it together. Thank you for your appreciation, we will not make you disappointed! :)

<comment><USER8> +1 Would love to see this with PHP soon guys.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> This is such a great idea - good luck with it!:-)</comment>


Google Wave is not dead yet - now at Apache - <AUTHOR> http://www.waveprotocol.org/

<comment><USER2> I hope they change the interface. The first thing I found odd about Wave, was that it needed a 1 hour demo when they first showed it. That was probably because it was focused towards developers, though, which is another mistake they made.

But I think the UI was 60% of the problem. When I first started using it, my brain started to hurt. They didn't even follow the golden rule. They had 2 same width columns in there. And everything looked cluttered and complex. Not very intuitive at all.

Another issue with it was confusing marketing. They called it e-mail 2.0, when it was nothing like that. People used it more as a collaboration tool. I had to use it every day for 6 months, too, and I didn't like using it at all.

Now, whoever even compares Google+ with Wave and says Google+ might fail the same as Wave, simply doesn't get it. They are worlds apart. From the moment I even saw the video ads, I had the opposite feeling about it than I had about Wave - a very positive feeling. And I keep having it after using it many hours a day.

<comment><USER3> I'm a huge fan of Wave's UI and wave in general. My friends and I have used it every day since it's release. We love it and our only complaint is that it is occasionally sluggish.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> Wave isn't dead, period. If you watch traffic sources while accessing Google+, you can see wave.google.com being called. The underlying tech has been incorporated, if only at an API level, in Google+.

</comment><comment> andrewl-hn Is Apache becoming a graveyard for dead or dying projects? First OpenOffice and now Google Wave. What's their reasoning behind these moves?

Both Wave and OO.o are fairy complex projects and I'm afraid that the pace of their development will suffer severely without a strong company backing.

<comment><USER5> I _think_ the reasoning is that Apache is about the only place where you have a strong open-source community that is acceptable to/has experience with "the enterprise" (see: their various Java projects).

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> Yup, been in the Apache Incubator since last year: [http://www.h-online.com/open/news/item/Google-Wave- accepted-...](http://www.h-online.com/open/news/item/Google-Wave-accepted- into-Apache-Incubator-1147935.html)

</comment><comment><USER7> Curious that Apache call it "Google Wave", if it's no longer part of Google. (Or is it?)

</comment><comment><USER8> This was announced by Google here: [http://www.google.com/support/wave/bin/answer.py?answer=1083...](http://www.google.com/support/wave/bin/answer.py?answer=1083134)

</comment><comment><USER9> Google Wave _is_ dead. Time will tell if Apache resuscitates it.

</comment><comment><USER10> Has anyone taken a look at Piazzza, the new blackboard type collaborative tool for college classes? I have a strong hunch they're using google wave.</comment>


Ask HN: Learning HTML - <AUTHOR>

Hello everyone. My girlfriend wants to learn HTML & CSS (she makes jewelry and wants to manage her website personally), and I was hoping you'd be able to help me out with a few recommendations.
The only stipulation is that they must be free to access. She is open to a variety of learning styles, so a wide range of approaches is acceptable, from step-by-step tutorials to videos.
I'm a web developer myself, but I've either forgotten a lot of the places that helped me when I first started out, or they just don't exist anymore.
Thanks again for your help. <comment><USER2> A wide range of approaches is also important to be able to understand HTML, or any subject for that matter.

I personally learned from video series from multiple sources. Videos are becoming widely popular since more people prefer watching over reading.

The New Boston ([http://www.thenewboston.com](http://www.thenewboston.com)), PHP Academy ([http://www.youtube.com/phpacademy](http://www.youtube.com/phpacademy)) - search for their CSS playlist, and Treehouse ([http://www.youtube.com/gotreehouse](http://www.youtube.com/gotreehouse) or [http://www.teamtreehouse.com](http://www.teamtreehouse.com))

For an interactive learning source, I recommend Code Academy ([http://www.codeacademy.com](http://www.codeacademy.com)).

</comment><comment><USER3> There are tones of online tutorials (just google it) and she might like some more than others so my best advice is just to try a few.

Personally, I like interactive tutorials, like the one codecademy offers: [http://www.codecademy.com/courses/web-beginner-en- HZA3b?curr...](http://www.codecademy.com/courses/web-beginner-en- HZA3b?curriculum_id=5035038ff76159000200b73c)

</comment><comment><USER4> Sit down with her and make a plain-HTML website. Walk her through the process and get her hooked. Then introduce her to CSS and then, once she's really comfortable with both HTLM and CSS, Javascript.

</comment><comment><USER5> Can't provide any suggestions for where to go, but I do have one very strong recommendation as to where to stay away from, that being w3schools.com (w3fools.com).

</comment><comment><USER6> Codeacademy.com you cannot go wrong there. It is a great starting place with lessons that teach you by making you code. Best way to learn anything IMO.

</comment><comment><USER7> codecademy, treehouse, codeschool</comment>


Google Reconsideration Requests and Disavow Lists, an entrepreneurs struggle.  - <AUTHOR> http://www.scottofford.com/2012/11/experience-with-google-reconsideration-request/

<comment><USER2> This is my site. I hope Google and friends can offer some insight. Let me know what you think.

<comment><AUTHOR> Hi Scott, saw this on your blog and re posted it hoping it would get some traction here. Really hope Google addressed this.

</comment></comment><comment><USER3> I hope a Google rep sees this. It's one thing for Google implement new policies on how it's search engine crawls pages, it's another to penalize a business for past strategies used only prior to these new policies.

<comment><USER2> Ya, I really did try my best. In my reconsideration request, after removing bad links as good as I could, I even apologized, just in case the Google reviewer reading my request might see that I'm being genuine.</comment></comment>


Ask HN: Mother (66) retired, bored and remote. What to do? - <AUTHOR> My mother recently retired. She lives in a remote location (very cold most of the year), but has good internet. She is used to being productive, and is mostly bored staying at home all day (husband works and supports).
She asked me if there are ways to make a small amount of money online and to stay mentally active/ not bored.
Does anyone have any hints? What are your parents doing at home (digital or otherwise) to stay entertained and sane?
Thanks! <comment><USER2> How active is she, and how much space does she have? There are people who spend a lot of time buying things at yard sales and estate sales and then selling them for profit on EBay.

Is there a college or university anywhere near her? Many of them will let retirees audit classes for free or a tiny fee. If not, maybe she'd enjoy a MOOC or two?

</comment><comment><USER3> maybe have a look into fiverr or etsy</comment>


Andrew Ng launches $175M AI fund - <AUTHOR> https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/30/andrew-ng-officially-launches-his-175m-ai-fund/ <comment><USER2> Andrew Ng's VC fund will use their own teams instead of listening to pitches. What can we read from this? (1) the market is saturated with 'wannabe startups' that talk about ML but don't have a clue (2) VCs get many of these pitches 'X but with AI' with noone knowing ML in the team.

Andrew has the reputation to do this and not be hated. But you know who did exactly this? Rocket internet, the clone-war masters.

</comment><comment><USER3> "In his view, AI businesses are also different from regular startups because you generally get a closed feedback loop that allows you to quickly see what works (and what doesn't)."

What is he talking about here? First of all, this is just the basic lean startup methodology. Any startup (especially consumer ones) try to do that, i.e. A/B testing new features. Second, he may be referring to the case that once you have a big comprehensive dataset already gathered, then you can just iterate improving the model.

My (cynical) answer: good luck with that. The real issue with AI especially in mission-critical situations is data in edge cases. Even if you can improve on your train/test data, that barely translates to customer satisfaction unless the edge cases are treated well. And edge cases will be revealed very slowly by encountering data in the field. Just ask anybody working on voice-assistant agents (Alexa, Siri, Google one) or self-driving. It's not a fast loop by any means.

Of course, Ng probably knows all this which makes me feel even more bothered.

<comment><USER4> >> _Of course, Ng probably knows all this which makes me feel even more bothered._

Ng's implied claim is that he has a head start on how to tackle the edge cases, along with other hard problems encountered in the field, based on his experience at Baidu. This is what got him the "easy" capital raise. If he really has an edge (no pun intended), then it makes sense for him to apply it while it's still relevant.

<comment><USER3> Maybe. Part of me thinks it's somewhat of a small money grab. (hope it's not.)

What I will bet money on though is that no _massive success_ will come out of this. The key to AI is data & hardware (and not algorithm or methodology -- where everyone is essentially doing the same) and that's the domain of already giant tech companies. There can be a lot of good use cases in teaching far-off industries on how to use AI (manufacturing, etc.) but that's essentially a consulting business which will have a limited window. So lots of little successes is completely achievable; massive successes I hardly doubt.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> [https://www.aifund.ai/](https://www.aifund.ai/)

<comment><USER6> Thanks for this

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> I am surprised it took so long for this to happen. Ideally speaking you would want the famous ML guy to help you in vetting any startup claiming to solve the problem using AI/ML.

</comment><comment><USER8> "One of my philosophies of building companies is the importance of velocity,"

True. And the key to keep (increasing) velocity is momentum. I believe the fundamentals to that is _infrastructure_. Once you get to the "flywheel stage" of an AI company ([http://nicodjimenez.github.io/2018/01/25/stages.html](http://nicodjimenez.github.io/2018/01/25/stages.html)), experimentation becomes so easy that new models can be rolled out nightly.

<comment><USER9> Actually the key to keep increasing velocity is maintaining a positive dv/dt, that is to say, acceleration. Momentum is more of a tendency to refuse to leave a state (think of `inertia-in-motion`), rather than actively seek it.

If that makes any sense at all, that is.

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> I remember when he was just a guy teaching me machine learning.

<comment><USER11> yeah but before that he was a super fucking famous ML researcher.

<comment><USER10> "Our next guest needs no introduction..."

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> Now I now why Andrew is two months late delivering the final 5th class for his deep learning Coursera specialization. He has been busy!

This is really a different kind of venture, and it will be interesting in a few years to see how they do.

<comment><USER13> Final as in this will be the last time Ng will teach the course?

<comment><USER14> > Final as in this will be the last time Ng will teach the course?

Courses on Coursera aren't really taught that way. The course instructor(s) prepare the course materials (videos, presentations, quizzes, assignments, etc.) once only. Courses start on a regular schedule and the platform, rather than the instructors, takes you through the material in sequence. There are forums with moderators for peer-support, but you don't typically interact with the instructors as they're not really there.

I assume the OP is referring to Ng building the fifth of the five courses that comprise the specialisation.

<comment><USER13> I see, although I have seen some refresh contents in other courses on Coursera. Good to know he has a series of courses.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> Sounds incredibly similar to Phil Libin's project: [https://all- turtles.com](https://all-turtles.com).

Phil Libin is the ex-CEO of Evernote.

Maybe there's room for multiple players in this space, but I imagine the name recognition and bona fides of Andrew Ng is going to suck the air out of All Turtles.

<comment><USER16> I have a feeling that Andrew's fund is much more focused on cutting-edge AI than Phil's. If you take a look at Phil's portfolio, you see can see that the companies are probably using some form of AI but that's not the core of them. Also, in my personal experience with talking to Phil, it seems that for him the "practical AI" part is more important than what kind of tech is used. So, maybe a more consumer-focused perspective (which I like).

I can imagine that Andrew focuses more on companies that have or have the potential to have significant AI themselves. I doubt that Andrew would consider a bot that uses the Google Vision API and Dialogflow an "AI" company. If that makes sense.

PS: I do think that the latter should be considered an AI company. Just like a company using AWS to host is called web company. In fact, probably a lot of companies will be using some sort of AI api pretty soon.

</comment></comment><comment><USER17> Sounds interesting! Does anyone have examples of AI startups that solve real world problems? Just trying to get a picture of what companies would fit their fund.

<comment><USER18> We're "horizontal".

We would not fit his definition of a vertical specific startup. (We have also been around a while though) The bulk of what we do is time series.

Applications we do for real paying customers include:

Detecting theft of power on the raw grid

Online payments fraud

Detecting people stealing from the telco network

Detecting faults in assembly line machines

Detecting computers about to fail

Detecting root cause of dropped calls

Kind of researchy, but we've also done robotics with RL to teach a robot to learn an obstacle course.

<comment><USER19> Tell me more, who is 'we' ?

<comment><USER3> Just look at his profile (a click away). He is the founder of Skymind.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> As other fellow commenters remarked, and as an AI enthusiast/researcher myself, I fail to see AI as a business. What I would like is a fund, or similar that is funding research, because fundamentally we need so much research in this area.

AI as we have it now is just a bunch of ML algos and *NNs that perform well in different niches and, well, after all cat pictures were categorized, what to do next?

So, in case Andrew is reading this post, I would like to have a chat with him about my research ideas and if they could be funded. Because if this happens, many more would follow and then we can see a real progres towards real/hard AI.

<comment><USER21> There are tons and tons of meaningful uses for the current state of ML. Just about every industry is full of opportunities to apply the most basic algorithms and drive tremendous value. It goes without saying that research is still valuable, but what I haven't seen yet is large, widespread use of applied ML.

<comment><USER20> Of course ML has his uses, even now I am doing fully industrial ML. But, in the end, is just an algorithm/NN that does what your suppose to programm it. And is a heck of manual work involved.

AI is on a different scale andmay have less to do with the actual implementations.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER22> The amount of money in this field puzzles me. The difference between relative novice and competition winner on kaggle.com is often in the single digit percentages or less. When 26 year old George Hotz can build his own self driving car in his garage, it seems like a very narrow moat.

<comment><USER4> You make it sound like George Hotz is any run-of-the-mill 26 year old, except he's anything but[1].

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz)

<comment><USER22> But the point is, for $3M I can fund George Hotz and have an entry in the self driving car arena. For nothing, I can go grab open source code and be a small percentage away from the absolute state of the art.

How do companies justify such a tiny edge as being worth so much? I wish Andrew Ng the best. I do. He's a class act. I enjoyed his course years ago, but came away a little disappointed. At the end, I realized there's no intelligence in the algorithms. It's all just applied statistics and a lot of sweat preparing training data.

Maybe I should just shut up and vie for some of the easy money sloshing around. I think I would just feel weird asking for a ton of cash when the end product is just a bit of recursive math.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER23> He announced that he was raising the fund 5 months ago [1]... surprised it took so long, honestly.

[1] [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15028322](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15028322)

<comment><USER24> Iirc Saastr wrote that raising money from LPs takes months, if not a couple of years.

</comment></comment><comment><USER25> I hope this fund wont be limited by only ML, but also will work on formal logic approaches.

<comment><USER26> I don't think anything other than ML will be funded like that for a while.

We are on the very top of that hype curve, a few of years from now we'll forget how absolutely stupefied we were when ML gave us models that "can X better than humans" and the enthusiasm will give way to a feeling of "I overpaid for this". It happened before with databases way back when, then with specialist systems, then ...

The only difference is now the layperson hears about it with an astounding frequency. I don't know, maybe that will make things different but I can't see it having any other effect than making that 'disappointment crash' harder

</comment></comment><comment><USER27> I wonder if anyone who has received an [https://aigrant.org](https://aigrant.org) will make their way over to aifund

</comment><comment><USER28> How to apply to become a company supported by his fund?

<comment><USER29> There's a contact link at the very end of their webpage: [https://www.aifund.ai/](https://www.aifund.ai/)

</comment></comment><comment><USER30> This guy has enormous energy . How can I copy him (1%)?

<comment><USER6> Red Bull

</comment></comment><comment><USER31> I really think to achieve actual AI we need a new material other than silicon but idk

<comment><USER3> Like H2O and carbon and stuff?

<comment><USER32> No that would not give you the A, or the I from my experience.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER33> Andrew Ng for President!

</comment><comment><USER34> Did he just cop baidu's business model lmao.

</comment><comment><USER35> I'm starting to notice that this AI malarkey is becoming a bit of a thing. Do people recommend I take a course in it?

<comment><USER36> I'm really enjoying his ML class on Coursera. Considering taking the deep learning series next. (And I work more than full time at a tech giant. It's working into my schedule okay so far.)

<comment><USER35> I'm at the end of a PhD. Once I've this baby wrapped up I'm jumping on that course quicker than you can say "rise of the robots". I've heard only good things about it :)

<comment><USER37> What is the domain of your PhD? If it's computer science or mathematics then you might find that ML class on Coursera too easy, way below your level of competence.

<comment><USER35> Philosophy / Humanities Computing</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment>


IPhone 5 vs iPhone 4S: how the specs compare  - <AUTHOR> http://www.geek.com/articles/mobile/iphone-5-vs-iphone-4s-how-the-specs-compare-20120912/ A side by side compare of the new iPhone to the old <comment><USER2> The photo illustrations are outrageously misleading, making the iPhone 5 dwarf the 4S. In reality, the iPhone 5 is only .37 (less than 3/8) of an inch taller than the 4S, and .05 (less than 1/16) of an inch wider.</comment>


Ask HN: How to freelance with niche programming languages? - <AUTHOR> So I am primarily into Rust with a bit of Haskell and Purescript and I am trying to get some side work that will hopefully blossom into full time freelancing. The problem I am encountering, looking on sites like upwork, all the demand seems to be for Ruby or Javascript programmers.<p>Do you guys have any advice on how I can get some work with more niche languages? <comment><USER2> Don't focus on people who have already made technology choices and are just looking for staff augmentation. Focus on the business value you can create, regardless of the tech stack, and seek out prospects who have the problem you solve, and care more about having the problem solved than about mandating a tech stack. Ideally, you want to be talking to LoB (Line of Business) leaders and executives, more than IT people. IT people care about stuff like "using C++ instead of Java" or "using Neo4J instead of FoundationDB", or "Using Angular 7.32.444.1.x.alpha.23j.br/3" instead of "Vue 220.127.116.11.0.42.42" or whatever. Try to avoid those people.

<comment><USER3> On the other hand, business people who don't care about their tech stack often have BIG blind spots in their conception of their desired solution, such as IT leaders that will slam the brakes on your solution if it doesn't fit into their vision of the technology world, who come out of the woodwork in the final hour and doom your project after a bunch of incorrect technology choices were made because the business folks neglected to warn you about these folks and their requirements in advance (even if you probe for this sort of thing, because the business folks choose to operate in a fiction where these people don't exist or are easily pacified).

<comment><USER2> Agreed. There is a definite process to work through to ensure that all these various bases are covered. It's not _easy_ but there's a lot of good information out there on how to manage it all. I recommend _Customercentric Selling_ and/or _Exceptional Selling_ as two books that contain a lot of quality advice about engaging with business leaders in a selling situation.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> I would suggest start with writing your insights about the language in the form of blog post which would be a good start point of attracting audience who are into this niche. This may lead to some folks reaching out to you for work.

If you're consider doing full-time consulting work in future then this strategy could lay a good ground work to build credibility in the niche.

<comment><USER5> This. As you are an expert in your niche now you need some personal marketing too. Cater code and articles about performance and business cases for your tech stack to these niche communities. It may bring you necessary recognition so one day some CTO may ask you to join their ship.

</comment></comment><comment><USER6> I have two pieces of advice:

\- Avoid middlemen to the extent possible. Some (not Upwork) can be a good place to fill some hours, but in general they're not a sustainable source of good clients

\- Freelancing in my experience was mostly about saying yes to many tech stack choices. I worked with a great number of technologies I never would've chosen for a personal project. I'm sure there are some people being paid to write Rust/Haskell on a freelance basis, but I doubt it's very common.

<comment><USER7> I've only experimented with Upwork (with mixed results), what are some of the better "middlemen" in your experience?

</comment></comment><comment><USER8> Have you tried specialized LinkedIn groups? A friend of mine found a remote Clojure gig that way.

You can try this as well [https://functional.works- hub.com/jobs/](https://functional.works-hub.com/jobs/)

</comment><comment><USER5> Attend or organize meetup for a FP language. Even go to another city or country. Niche stuff often brings remote gigs. After lectures there is usually a networking event in relaxed atmosphere. Don't forget business cards.

</comment><comment><USER9> I guess legacy tech will help here. I know that a lot of businesses still run on COBOL and will probably be willing to pay well. Anyone with experience in freelancing for legacy tech ?

<comment><USER10> I can't speak to COBOL-based businesses, but I work for a large company that uses primarily RPG ILE. Five of our eight programmers have passed retirement age, but are still holding on. Once they decide to leave the company, we'll will be in a tight spot. I can only imagine its the same way at a lot of other RPG shops.

All this is to say, +1 for consulting/freelancing for legacy tech.

<comment><USER9> Could you hint which company ? I would like to give a shot in case the company ends up with outsourcing something.

<comment><USER10> Sure. We're one of the largest lawn/garden/agriculture distributors in the Southeastern United States.

But there seems to be a lot of other companies that rely on legacy RPG. "The Four Hundred" from IT Jungle seems to be a good resource to IBM i-related information.

[https://www.itjungle.com/newsletter/tfh/](https://www.itjungle.com/newsletter/tfh/)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> You need to network with people who run businesses with your language.

<comment><USER2> I think you can shorten that to "You need to network with people who run businesses". Valley startups excepted, high level executives don't usually care if you use Rust, Scala, or Befunge, or whatever. They want problems solved.</comment></comment>


Electric scooters are causing injuries and accidents - <AUTHOR> https://www.cnet.com/news/electric-scooters-by-bird-and-lime-are-causing-injuries-and-accidents/ <comment><USER2> File under "pretty obvious if you think about it".

On motorcycles, the rule to live by is All The Gear, All The Time. On mopeds, it's apparently Helmet With Maybe A Jacket. On electric scooters, it's Lol. The truth is that it should always be ATGATT on all 3. Going down on any of them is going to be exactly the same as going down at the same speed on a motorcycle.

One of the things you learn during rider training is that "stuck throttle" is usually panic freezing your wrist in place. Same goes for brakes that aren't working. I'll grant you that the scoots probably aren't maintained super well either, so it might be more likely there than on your personal machine.

All these rentals are adding up to just one thing: A lot more untrained, inexperienced motorcycle riders on the roads (and sometimes the sidewalks). The results are pretty obvious if you think about it.

Edit: Typo that I noticed.

<comment><USER3> > Going down on any of them is going to be exactly the same as going down at > the same speed on a motorcycle.

I'm all for better safety, but I think this is an overreaction. I'd compare falling off a scooter to be similar to falling off a bike–you're dealing with similar speeds and similar weight vehicles in both.

<comment><USER4> Eh - I've fallen off a bike twice at relatively low speeds, and both time I've broken a bone (first time a finger, second time a scaphoid fracture).

I think it's important not to under-react just because the speeds are lower than a motorcycle - all those bones in our limbs break just as well at 10mph. When on a bike or a scooter, scaphoid wrist protection and at least a jacket on at all times, for me.

<comment><USER5> What about the danger to pedestrians hit by the driver of a scooter?

<comment><USER4> The risk is lower on a scooter than on a motorcycle. We don't have to over- correct though, and treat scooters like they're _that much_ safer than a motorcycle.

The most dangerous thing we can do is let ourselves mentally relax when we're on one, as if we're not on a big sharp chunk of (relatively) fast metal and inertia.

A helmet wearing person slamming headfirst into the nape of somebody's neck at 15 or 50 miles per hour is probably going to kill them.

<comment><USER6>
      The risk is lower on a scooter than on a motorcycle.

On the road, yes. But motorcycles don't routinely take the sidewalks.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment> user-x Can I just mention I find it very strange that there are hip techy Silicon Valley startups that invest their time in these scooters, when from a pure engineering perspective these things are doomed to be unsafe. COG is very high above the ground, which makes keeping balance more difficult. Wheels are close to the COG in the horizontal direction, making it easier to fall forward over the steering handle. Wheel radius is small causing the scooter to get stuck behind all pits in the road and stuff like that. I mean sure it's fun to ride these things but please tell me this is not the Technology Age's means of transportation. Apart from that I found this article to be quite sensational. I'm missing the cold hard statistics proving these things are actually dangerous, which do not (yet) exist as stated in the article itself.

<comment><USER7> Yeah I'm not quite sure why scooters were chosen. ebikes seem better in every way. You can even set them up with throttles so they are no effort. Bike geometry is very stable. I have never fallen off a bike on a road.

<comment><USER8> They take way more space than scooters.

<comment><USER9> Especially comparing folded scooters to bikes. (Yes, there are foldable bikes, but they're still big). Part of the workflow of shared scooters is picking them up for recharge and re-location, and you can fit a lot more scooters in the back of an SUV than you can bikes.

<comment><USER10> Just swop the batteries on e-bikes then.

<comment><USER7> Thats what I have heard the Chinese companies do, just drive around with a van full of batteries.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> Shall we compare this to car injuries/fatalities?

Wouldn't it be great if there was suitable lanes without potholes that weren't 'shared' with cars (cars don't share).

Injuries are to be expected, some users will ride stupidly, and unfortunate things happen. Add thousands of scooter each having 10 rides a day, of course injuries will rise.

<comment><USER12> Sure, let's use per-mile-travelled statistics.

<comment><USER11> Not a fair comparison. Speeds and afforded space are different. Cars aren't driving on the same roads as airplanes.

Time spent is a better approximation, taking into account additional safety provided by seatbelts and an enclosure.

<comment><USER12> What does fair even mean in this context?

Are you saying cars get demerits for having safety equipment?

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> It's the same answer for why so many more bicyclists are killed by cars in America than Europe. We need protected lanes that are separated from cars by more than paint.

[https://peopleforbikes.org/blog/14-ways-to-make-bike- lanes-b...](https://peopleforbikes.org/blog/14-ways-to-make-bike-lanes-better- the-infographic/)

It's a lot simpler for bicycles and scooters to live side by side than either of them with cars.

Some basics like safety standards for rented transportation are even easier.

<comment><USER14> I ride my bike in sf and oakland where these scooters are common, and I do not like the idea of sharing an enclosed lane with them. so many people riding them are completely inexperienced and bad at passing and turning or otherwise uninterested in the general flow of traffic. they are a nuisance and I do not want to share a lane with them that I can't swerve out of. I honestly don't want them in bike lanes at all.

<comment><USER13> Are you against new cyclists using bike lanes as well? Inexperienced riders are a hazard on any form of transportation.

<comment><USER14> no, inexperienced cyclists are fairly predictable and practically never ride on busy city streets. they are not at all a problem for me.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> > Under current state law, people must wear helmets while riding these > vehicles, which can travel at 15 mph. Bird sponsored a bill in February to > get rid of that law, which passed in September. Starting January, helmets > will no longer be required for scooter riders in California.

> Bird said its goal in sponsoring the legislation was to create "consistent > ridership rules" between e-scooters and e-bikes since helmets aren't > required with e-bikes.

So they are actively working to enable more severe injuries _and_ cloaking the move in an appeal to "consistency". That seems pretty grotesque to me.

(Why aren't helmets required with e-bikes!?)

<comment><AUTHOR> I'm not a particular fan of e-scooters but IMO adults should have pretty broad latitude in what safety equipment they choose to wear.

<comment><USER15> What happens if adults don't have pretty broad latitude in the safety equipment they choose to wear?

<comment><USER16> On one hand, you have personal liberty and what I believe to be the "right to die". On the other hand, you have complications with insurance, or depending on who is more at fault, possible manslaughter. There's definitely a balance to be struck somewhere. I regularly achieve speeds well above 15mph when riding a regular bicycle downhill without a helmet and quite frankly it's fucking stupid

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> > Brogan, 63, eased on the brakes as her scooter gained speed -- only to > discover they didn't work.

I feel like this should be addressed by safety codes. Providing scooters with brakes that don't work is completely nuts.

<comment><USER11> This one is definitely on the company. The current fleet isn't designed with durability in mind.

That said, unlikely, but could have been a malicious citizen who intentionally damaged the brakes (people are super disrespectful to the green transit)

<comment><USER3> > people are super disrespectful to the green transit

I've found the general sentiment is that people are disrespectful to Bird and Lime, rather than green transit in general. Something about them being an eyesore.

<comment><USER11> And being in public. Can't do the same to private ones because there are far less sitting in the open.

People complain of them parked on the sidewalk with rows of car parking all around, or riding on the sidewalk where on the street would be a death sentence.

<comment><AUTHOR> Yes. I complain about them on the sidewalk if there are any number of people there. If you're not comfortable riding on the street don't do so and try to get the configuration changed so you are more comfortable.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> I decided to get myself a collapsible helmet after reading that someone I follow on Twitter nearly got into an accident. There are quite a few options regarding helmets [0] but only two really stand out, the Morpher [1] and the Plixi [2] - I purchased the Plixi because it's the only collapsible helmet rated by Consumer Reports. I'm very happy with the helmet, especially after comparing it with a Morpher that my coworker has.

Footnotes:

0: [https://helmets.org/folding.htm](https://helmets.org/folding.htm)

1: [https://www.morpherhelmet.com](https://www.morpherhelmet.com)

2: [https://www.overade.com/shop/en/plixi](https://www.overade.com/shop/en/plixi)

<comment><AUTHOR> There are also hats with D3O material. [1] I wear one downhill skiing [2] but it is probably less suited for scooters or bikes, especially in warmer months.

1: [https://www.d3o.com/](https://www.d3o.com/)

2: The alternative to not wearing this protection is none at all. I don't downhill ski much these days but didn't wear a helmet when no one did and am not about to start now.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> The interesting part of the article for me was that Bird helped change CA law which previously required wearing helmets in electric scooters.

Transportation of any kind is a fairly dangerous activity. I assume it's more likely to be injured on a scooter than in a car, but I don't think the hard numbers are in.

For example if you multiply the number of miles _not_ driven by the vehicular accident rate, you would want to subtract that number of injuries off the scooter injury total, but surely it would still be positive.

<comment><USER6> Helmets will be mandatory until age 18.

The speed limit everywhere will be 15 MPH. Will Bird and Lime have appropriate limiters? I doubt it.

[https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2989)

<comment><USER19> In San Jose the limit is 12mph. It's implemented in software (of course).

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> "If you hit the ground at 20mph [on a scooter] or a baseball bat hits your head at 20mph, that's about the same thing."

Sure, riding these scooters may be the most dangerous thing that some people have ever done besides using a motor vehicle, but they are also really fun and useful. I'd say, let them exist for awhile and see how it works out in the long term. Could be great for public transit and the last mile problem.

<comment><USER21> I bet riding those things is far far far more deadly in terms of death/mile than even a motorcycle.

[http://fortune.com/2018/09/22/lime-scooters-fatality- death/](http://fortune.com/2018/09/22/lime-scooters-fatality-death/)

[https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/person-died- renting...](https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/person-died-renting- electric-rental-scooter-dallas/)

[https://dailycaller.com/2018/09/30/electric-scooter- rental-c...](https://dailycaller.com/2018/09/30/electric-scooter-rental- cities-accidents/)

[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us- canada-45596449](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45596449)

<comment><USER22> Been riding motorcycles for 16 years. Took a lime for a ride. Couldn't believe I even need a license and 1 year on L/P for my bike... I didn't feel safe on that thing, at all.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER23> The more I hear about these scooters the more that I hope that they never come to Chicago.

</comment><comment><USER24> Hopefully those safety concerns will force cities to accommodate electric scooters as part of their transportation infrastructure, leading to proper lanes, safety inspections and docking stations, instead of banning them nilly- willy.

The current urban infrastructure in America are build for automobiles, specifically cars, with bikes being an afterthought. The mass adoption of electric scooters will eventually cause a wake-up call for city planners, and will hopefully put the brakes on car culture.

</comment><comment><USER25> We're talking about two deaths total here? How many people were killed in automobile crashes since this article was published?

Even in the example the article uses, automobiles are the problem. What does the author suppose the busy intersection is busy with? The intersection is only dangerous because of the automobiles using it.

"Scooter accidents happen for a lot of reasons ... sometimes, the scooter is the problem. As she sped down that hill in San Diego, her husband yelled to Brogan to crash into him in order to break her fall. But she didn't want to send him flying. So moments before careening into the busy intersection, she held her arms up against her chest and slid the scooter out sideways."

</comment><comment><USER26> Scooters are amazing. I could see how some people could feel unsafe on them but besides the one offs I think its silly to demonize the scooters. People can always bring their own scooter and even bikes to the road. It says all over the scooters near me to keep them off the road as well

</comment><comment><USER27> San Francisco is really dumb about scooters at the moment. I can't ride one because I don't have a driver license. So I need to learn how to drive a freaking car and risk my life in one of these deadly machine to have the privilege of riding a kick scooter

<comment><USER28> only 90% of people can figure out how to drive. you'll be ok

<comment><USER27> I do not care about driving

<comment><USER28> then you'll never get to go on the scooters

<comment><USER27> I already did, outside of SF it is fine.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER29> Move fast. Break things.

<comment><USER30> And kill people:

[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/28/90-year-old- woma...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/28/90-year-old-woman-dies- collision-electric-scooter/)

</comment></comment><comment><USER31> Why didn't she use the rear foot brake? If you're going down a hill, you will definitely want to hover your back foot on the brake.

The foot brake can't malfunction because you are physically pressing the rear guard against the wheel with downward force. If the user isn't aware of the rear brake, that's user error.

That said, maybe lime scooters don't have rear brakes?

The other thing is, these scooters are great. I wouldn't rent one, because you don't know if the last person was doing jumps and stunts on it, which they are not designed for. But they are amazing little transport devices which help people get to their destination quicker.

<comment><USER32> Maybe she didn't know it had one, which is one of the major problems with any type of rental device. A rental device that a user isn't familiar with is subject to misuse by uninformed users. Imagine if we allowed car rentals to people who had never driven before or bike rentals for people who never learned to drive. I'm not suggesting there should be a license for these and maybe that's just the cost of having them.

</comment></comment><comment><USER33> > "I blew through three intersections and luckily didn't get hit," she said. > "I'm now going 25 mph heading toward six lanes of traffic."

Honestly 25 mph isn't that fast. Many healthy cyclists can achieve 25 mph quite easily, although perhaps not for a very long time. If you regularly cycle in places with steeper slopes, 25 mph can be achieved without much effort.

But I think the smallness of the scooters themselves could contribute to a feeling of being unsafe. Psychologically it feels that the object is too small to be able for the user to remain in control. This is in contrast to a bike, when the user simply feels more in control even at a similar speed.

<comment><USER34> I fell off my bike going downhill after hitting a pothole going roughly 30mph. I wasn't wearing a helmet. Yes, it was exceptionally irresponsible of me. The accident looked so bad, it stopped car traffic all around me and I heard a driver saying, "Oh my God, he's dead" because I wasn't moving and had blood all over me. When I got to the ER, the doctors said I'm lucky to be alive with the head trauma I suffered (remarkably, only a concussion). I walked away with horrible road rash (and a bald spot) on the back of my head. I got several cuts on my face that made me bleed profusely. My arm looked mangled, but it was just really scratched up.

What the fuck do you mean 25mph isn't fast on a bike?

</comment></comment><comment><USER35> I'd like to know some estimate of the rate of disabling or deadly accidents per mile ridden to appreciate the scale of the problem.

The lack of gear and training probably makes accidents worse than they would be. But how frequently and how severe?

> "Some of these injuries have been life-threatening; others have left people > permanently disabled."

How many does "some" represent here? Definitely some fraction of the total injuries, which "could be as high as 1,000 per month."

Why "could be?" How uncertain is that figure and what other reasonable estimates of injury rates are there??

On the one hand, the "vast majority end up getting discharged with cuts and scrapes," but on the other hand, "some people may need lifelong care."

How many? And why are you hedging with "may?"

There are some specific numbers in the article-- but they are for individual emergency rooms, without the additional context necessary to extrapolate from that ER over any large regions. And then the information from different ERs ranges so widely as to appear to contradict each other.

I left the article with two takeaways:

1) I assume this is a very real problem.

2) I hate how we reward nonspecificity and anecdotal evidence in journalism. The problem's serious enough to at least take a shot at metrics that would help us to compare it to other social problems, like motorcycle or car or pedestrian injuries.

<comment><USER36> > On the one hand, the "vast majority end up getting discharged with cuts and > scrapes," but on the other hand, "some people may need lifelong care."

> How many? And why are you hedging with "may?"

That's a quote from a doctor about specific cases that went through a specific hospital he works at. That's why.

I've posted the full quote below, for context. Ironically, the journalist went through the effort of giving some very concrete numbers:

> _Doctors in Dell Seton 's emergency room say they're seeing about 10 > injuries a day._

> _" The vast majority end up getting discharged with cuts and scrapes, maybe > a broken bone," said Ziebell. "But some injuries are significant."_

> _The hospital has seen 37 severe traumas since April: eight head injuries, > 23 orthopedic injuries, four facial injuries and two "other" injuries. In > October alone, doctors say 18 people were admitted to either the intensive > care unit or surgeries with overnight hospital stays._

> _" The folks that had severe head injuries, they're in for a long course of > rehab," Ziebell said. "Some people may need lifelong care, like a nursing > home."_

<comment><USER35> > Ironically, the journalist went through the effort of giving some very > concrete numbers:

C'mon. I addressed that in my very next sentence after the one you quoted.

A "concrete number" that is an arbitrary slice of the problem is more misleading than helpful.

The concrete numbers provided here, about individual ERs, with no indication as to what slice of the problem we're talking about, are essentially random noise when considering the problem as a whole.

<comment><USER36> > The concrete numbers provided here, about individual ERs, with no indication > as to what slice of the problem we're talking about, are essentially random > noise when considering the problem as a whole.

Again, the article lays this out concretely:

> _Because rentable electric scooters are so new, federal and local officials > haven 't started tracking accidents, and the companies have declined to > release any stats._ But some numbers are beginning to appear.

Then, they list the concrete numbers they _do_ know.

<comment><USER35> Huh. I don't feel like that was a "concrete" rebuttal to the point I actually made, especially when you really look at the "numbers" they cite next in the article, but I want to take a step back.

I think it's getting lost in the noise, so to reiterate, my main point is that I'd just like journalism to include a little more analysis, to put numbers in context, and to avoid relying extensively on emotional appeals as a substitute for chalkboards or backs-of-napkins when dealing with complex social problems.

Based on your username, maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like you know what it's like to wrangle data and communicate findings. Sometimes you don't have all the data you want, but you have to make sense of what you have access to, get signal from noise, and make reasonable extrapolations even under a lot of initial uncertainty.

Now imagine you have access to everything the journalist had. You could ask additional questions at the hospitals or conduct additional searches in the public record.

If we asked, "what else could we learn about this important trend?" is your response really, "well, if the companies don't just tell us and there's no fully funded federal study... we just can't possibly know anything aside from the fact there were some number greater than fifty headlines in six months."

When we stop there I get terrified that Paulos was just right, we struggle to use numbers in public settings so nobody tries. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_(book)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_\(book\))

I feel like we could have, say, talked about the populations served by these ERs, or the fraction of overall ER cases that involve scooters and how that's changing over time. Anything to give us a sense of why these ERs vary in their numbers by a factor of ten, to determine how representative they are, or anything to give us a trendline. Even headline counting COULD be rigorous if you add more methodology than this article's "quick search." The gun violence project is one example of that approach.

The journos I really respect take these sorts of next steps. They do more with less. Sometimes they have to hedge and caveat, but they take a shot. It's not impossible, so I just wish we held more journalists to that higher standard, that's all.</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment>


Owners want to reuse Detroit's old depot as a train station - <AUTHOR> http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170911/news/638681/morouns-vision-for-detroit-depot-trains <comment><AUTHOR> I have memories as a kid of that old station, now famously featured to represent Detroit ruin porn. It was extremely elegant, nicer than most European train stations that I've visited.

This week they're having the Detroit Homecoming there, inviting folks of note who grew up in Detroit back.

[http://www.freep.com/story/money/2017/09/13/michigan- central...](http://www.freep.com/story/money/2017/09/13/michigan-central- station-crains-detroit-homecoming/661865001/)

Detroit has long needed a mass transit way of getting from the airport to downtown, maybe this could be a solution.</comment>


Ask HN: What should I ask my CEO at lunch? - <AUTHOR> I have been invited to a luncheon with my CEO (of a Fortune 500 company). I work in BI and data science. What should I ask or tell him?  Thoughts? <comment><USER2> What's his view of ML / AI / big data?

What's his view of privacy and big data?</comment>


Ask HN: What are some good resources about zk-SNARKS - lucas-piske Hi, I'm a master's student researching distributed ledgers scalability and I would like to learn about zk-snarks. What are some resources that you guys recommend? <comment><AUTHOR> Awesome zero knowledge proofs [https://github.com/matter-labs/awesome-zero- knowledge-proofs](https://github.com/matter-labs/awesome-zero-knowledge- proofs)</comment>


Windows 8 will run on hardware available today, will have consistency - <AUTHOR> http://www.winbeta.org/news/windows-8-will-run-hardware-available-today-will-have-consistency#.T3OtUe-7zJk.hackernews <comment><USER2> My concern with W8 is that the inclusion of the Metro touch interface and paradigm on desktop systems will do nothing but confuse people. I've seen this first hand after installing the consumer preview version on a laptop and having a wide range of people try it. Almost without fail, the reaction I've seen is confusion followed by a severe reduction of productivity.

I understand the idea of having "one OS to rule all platforms" but can't help to think that W8 will cause a lot of friction with those who need a Windows XP/Vista/7 desktop, mouse-and-keyboard experience and have no use whatsoever for a touch interface. This group, I might argue, represents the overwhelming majority of Windows users. By far.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.</comment>


Ask HN: How to structure joining a new VC firm - <AUTHOR> Being courted by a micro-VC fund/incubator and would love guidance on how to secure proper compensation. This firm has yet to launch, and is interested in me joining as "Chief Brand Officer" as a value-add to portfolio companies in the way of branding, design and marketing. The founders are entrepreneurs themselves. We are talking salary + profit share. Basic. But is there something more specific I should be pushing for? Yesterday at a conference I overheard a guy mandating he take a piece as GP for his situation. I just don't have enough experience around VC or investment structures to know what I'm potentially leaving on the table. Thank you! <comment><USER2> There is a lot of context missing here but some ground rules for a 'regular' VC would be:

Carry / number of partners would be a nice starting point for the profit share and 50% of the management fee / number of partners for the base compensation. Note that the management fee is usually on funds under management, not the total size of the fund so this will fluctuate as more funds are committed and will be reduced again when the fund reaches the end of its life.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you. It's a typical 2/20 structure starting out with two partners and the first fund size is ~$25m

<comment><USER2> Ok, so 2% of 25 million works out to an operating budget of 500K per year which is not a whole lot so you may have to scale that down a bit, travel, accomodation and due diligence costs for failed bids add up. A larger fund has an easier time with this. Fortunately the number of partners is small. If you can raise more money you should probably do so, but $120K for base compensation would do you nicely to stay afloat while the fund is spending and 50% of the 20% carry of the first exit will compensate you for opportunity cost, more exits and you should do just fine.

If you manage 2x or more across the whole fund you are going to do quite well, but that is not as easy as it sounds, especially not if this is your first foray into venture capitalism, expect to pay a tuition fee during the first couple of investments.

Best of luck with this!

<comment><AUTHOR> Really appreciate your replies. The two current GP partners have depth in this area. Really my big question was whether I should be asking for a piece of the GP-structure, or does general net profit share suffice? Is one generational versus the other? Again, thank you.

<comment><USER2> If you are going to be visible to the outside world as a GP then you should definitely go for getting the same deal as they do. If not you will be either a junior partner or even seen as an associate, which might not be the best spot to be in, both financially and from the point of view of how much influence you can exert on deals being done or rather not.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> I hesitate to weigh in here because I know essentially nothing about the space. But I saw your question and I thought of Arlan Hamilton, the founder of Backstage Capital. I thought I would suggest that articles/information about her might be of interest to you if you don't get enough information from HN replies (or wherever else you are looking for info).

[https://twitter.com/ArlanWasHere](https://twitter.com/ArlanWasHere)

[https://backstagecapital.com/](https://backstagecapital.com/)

Best of luck.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks. Just read about her earlier today. Media had a run with her stepping away from the incubation side.

To clarify: I'm not seeking proprietary guidance, just wanted to make sure there isn't a common structure I am not aware of!

</comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> I found this which is very insightful: [https://jtangovc.com/our-vc-firms- compensation-structure/](https://jtangovc.com/our-vc-firms-compensation- structure/)</comment>


Zed Shaw's MulletDB: SQL in the front, NoSQL in the back - <AUTHOR> http://mulletdb.com

<comment><USER2> I'm having trouble picturing the implications of an AGPL database. His brief mention of "everything it talks to should be GPL" doesn't really help.

<comment><USER3> It's the trend now in the NoSQL world, so I figured I'd try it on for size. Considering I'm really the only person I'm writing it for it's the perfect license.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> No thanks, Zed. I'll just continue to use PostgreSQL. It'll scale better, it'll be more reliable, it's a real database, and it's released under a truly free licence. Take this NoSQL crap back to Rubyland.

<comment><USER3> Yes, I'll go right back to Rubyland where I never lived.</comment></comment>


Why Would Microsoft Buy Skype? - <AUTHOR> http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2385155,00.asp

<comment><USER2> Because there is a big fight going on in Telco country. Telecom voice, old rich 06 mobile industries took over IT, now software is on the revenge software beats Cisco callmanager hardware, MS is hot with Lync and Video..

Telco's / ISP's responds asking money for streamed data

next MS buys ISP's or in a poker move Google will do that.

next hunt media TV .. Sony/MS/Google/Apple who will buy tv or.. who will invent a better alternative ...

This is why it is so important to stop the copyright laws As soon a next facebook will be there, a huge video broadcast site (not facebook not youtube).. i'm talking about the next social hype.. sorry cannt tell you all now.</comment>


Introducing The Entrepreneurial Hackers Group - <AUTHOR>

I am starting a company.  I am 27 and I have no idea what I am doing.
Does that sound like you?  Well its happening to me, and I need and want help.  I want to know the right answers to things and I want to know them now instead of later, well because I am in the process of starting my company.
So what did I do?  I created a Google group.  https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/the-entrepreneurial-hackers
This group has been done plenty of times before, but only in select locations around the globe, that are local to that city.  Here is the solution.  This one will not be local.  It will be world wide.  I am tired of trying to rely on my questions being answered on Hacker News and Pleas for help.  I want real solutions and answers to my problems.
I did this because YC does it, so why not?  Did you know YC has a network of people they could ask on their own group and within minutes, have it answered?  I want the same thing.  Im tired of this exclusivity, and I want to fix it now.
So here it is.  Go ahead, ask the first question.  Its up to you to see this place grow.  We as entrepreneurial hackers don't have anything yet like this that isn't open to the general public.  So here is my first attempt.
My 10 cents. <comment><USER2> What kind of a question is this?

"I am starting a company, and my lawyer asks how many shares would you like to start with. He quoted at $100 a share and well, I went searching on Google. Startup lawyer says we should put it in at 10 million or more shares.

Whats your thoughts?"

<comment><AUTHOR> The kind you can answer if you have any experience with the situation.

<comment><USER2> You want $100 a share at 10 million shares? I don't understand.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> huh?</comment>