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- Methodology article
- Open Access
A continuous-time adaptive particle filter for estimations under measurement time uncertainties with an application to a plasma-leucine mixed effects model
© Krengel et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2013
- Received: 31 October 2011
- Accepted: 7 January 2013
- Published: 19 January 2013
When mathematical modelling is applied to many different application areas, a common task is the estimation of states and parameters based on measurements. With this kind of inference making, uncertainties in the time when the measurements have been taken are often neglected, but especially in applications taken from the life sciences, this kind of errors can considerably influence the estimation results. As an example in the context of personalized medicine, the model-based assessment of the effectiveness of drugs is becoming to play an important role. Systems biology may help here by providing good pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models. Inference on these systems based on data gained from clinical studies with several patient groups becomes a major challenge. Particle filters are a promising approach to tackle these difficulties but are by itself not ready to handle uncertainties in measurement times.
In this article, we describe a variant of the standard particle filter (PF) algorithm which allows state and parameter estimation with the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU). The modified particle filter, which we call MTU-PF, also allows the application of an adaptive stepsize choice in the time-continuous case to avoid degeneracy problems. The modification is based on the model assumption of uncertain measurement times. While the assumption of randomness in the measurements themselves is common, the corresponding measurement times are generally taken as deterministic and exactly known. Especially in cases where the data are gained from measurements on blood or tissue samples, a relatively high uncertainty in the true measurement time seems to be a natural assumption. Our method is appropriate in cases where relatively few data are used from a relatively large number of groups or individuals, which introduce mixed effects in the model. This is a typical setting of clinical studies. We demonstrate the method on a small artificial example and apply it to a mixed effects model of plasma-leucine kinetics with data from a clinical study which included 34 patients.
Comparisons of our MTU-PF with the standard PF and with an alternative Maximum Likelihood estimation method on the small artificial example clearly show that the MTU-PF obtains better estimations. Considering the application to the data from the clinical study, the MTU-PF shows a similar performance with respect to the quality of estimated parameters compared with the standard particle filter, but besides that, the MTU algorithm shows to be less prone to degeneration than the standard particle filter.
- Particle filter
- Sequential Monte Carlo methods
- Nonlinear filtering
- Parameter estimation
- Measurement time uncertainties
- Mixed effects
- Leucine kinetics
Measurement time uncertainties
Uncertainty in the time at which a measurement is taken is an often neglected source of random error. While in many application areas, this kind of error is generally small and indeed neglectable (due to automated measurements and precise timings), in others it may be of real influence, especially in the life sciences. As a prominent example, one may consider pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models which are used to describe the metabolic interactions and the effects of a chemical agent (like a drug or a labelled substance) over time inside an organism, respectively.
A typical population experiment in the PK/PD context consists in the analysis of the contents of the blood plasma of several individuals with respect to concentrations of certain molecules of interest. For this purpose, blood probes have to be taken from each individual at certain (fixed) time points after a certain event has occurred (e.g. a drug or a labelled substance has been applied). It is clear from the setting of the experiments that there is some variation in the real point in time when the blood probe has been taken: the true time when the measurement value has been obtained might be shortly before or after the intended time, and this true measurement time is not known to us. Since the inclusion of those time uncertainties in the model usually makes the analysis more difficult, it is standard to lump the time uncertainties with the measurement error. But especially at early times when concentrations change quickly, this may easily lead to wrong estimations, even if one assumes very high variances of the measurement error (we will demonstrate this later on a simple example). On the other hand, the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU) in algorithms aiming at inference making in complex models is not straightforward. In this article, we will present a modification of the Particle Filter (PF) algorithm (which we call MTU-PF) which is able to fully include a statistical model of the time uncertainties.
Inference in complex systems
The assessment of the effectiveness of a drug in a clinical study has been done in the past by the direct computation of relatively simple statistical values. The enormous increase in complexity of the underlying models, due to present developments in medicine and biology, for instance in the areas of personalized medicine or systems biology, increases also the need for more sophisticated model-based inference methods.
The estimation of unobservable internal variables or model parameters from data which have been obtained from blood or tissue samples at several time points can reveal information on the concentrations and effectiveness of the substance under question. If these data come from individuals which belong to two different (or even more) groups, e.g. test and control group, mixed effects are introduced in the underlying models. The inherent non-linearity and high variability of biological processes adds considerably to the difficulties one faces during the inference step. Inference in connection with dynamic models plays a major role in many other application areas. State and parameter estimation as well as model discrimination and validation are most common, but also optimal control problems should be mentioned.
It is often not enough to consider (independent) measurement noise [1]. Correlations between residuals are not uncommon, and the violation of this statistical assumption may lead to wrong estimates. A natural way to include correlated noise is to model two different types of noise: the dynamic (process or system) noise which is present in the dynamics of the system states and originates either from true random fluctuations in the system or from unmodelled dynamics in the system, and the measurement noise which is introduced by the measurement procedure or equipment and modelled by independent residuals. One possible approach is to use state space models which consist of a time-continuous model for the system states, e.g. based on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs), and a separate model for the time-discrete measurements.
Parameter estimation with Maximum Likelihood approach
Parameter estimation in state space systems is a difficult problem. In a context where the system dynamics are modelled by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) without correlated noise, the problem is most often considered as a (deterministic) optimization problem based on a Maximum Likelihood (ML) formulation. An overview of these approaches can be found in [2] and [3]; see also [4], which consider also other aspects like identifiability. A generalization of the ML approach including more flexible cost functions is given by the prediction error estimation method ([5]). The introduction of system noise in the state variables leads to optimization problems with SDE constraints. In this case, internal system states which cannot be directly observed need to be estimated jointly with the parameters, given the data. For this purpose, the parameter estimation methods must be augmented by appropriate state filtering methods. An overview of ML parameter estimation in these types of models is given in [6]. If the SDEs are non-linear, linearizations to the Kalman Filter, like the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) or the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), are used to establish approximations to the means and covariances of the filter distributions over time. All those approximations suffer from the fact that they approximate the filtering distributions of the states by a Gaussian distribution at all time points and cannot adequately approximate skewed or multimodal distributions. Better approximations are provided by simulation based methods like Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms where good convergence results have been established ([7]). Nevertheless, they suffer from several drawbacks when applied to the joint estimation of dynamic states and fixed parameters ([8–10], see also [11]).
Parameter estimation in a Bayesian context
In a Bayesian context, in contrast to the "classical" ML approach, a prior distribution is assigned to the parameter vector, hence the parameters can be treated as random variables. In this sense, parameter estimation is done by evaluating the so-called posterior distribution which can be computed (at least theoretically) by Bayes' theorem given the observations (measurements) and the prior distribution. In the context of high-dimensional spaces, this requires the computation of high-dimensional integrals which is not possible to do analytically. For this purpose, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide powerful tools for the computation of simulation-based approximations to the posterior distribution. Again, in the context of the joint estimation of dynamic states and fixed parameters, the design of good proposal densities is a very difficult problem which renders the use of standard MCMC methods like the Metropolis-Hastings sampler impractical for the purposes of parameter estimation in state space systems.
It has long been a wish to combine both (dynamic) SMC and (static) MCMC methods to provide a general tool for the joint estimation of dynamic states and static parameters. Only recently, Andrieu et al. [11] proposed a very promising combination of both types of Monte Carlo approaches called Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) which is generally applicable and where also convergence has been proved.
In the present article, even though the PMCMC approach might be the preferred method for parameter estimation in state space systems, we will concentrate solely on the SMC methods, since our modification affects only this part. However, to be able to do parameter estimation in a pure SMC context, we rely on an approach that is very often used to avoid problems with the estimation of constant parameters. This approach consists in the introduction of artificial dynamics in the parameters, that means the parameters are allowed to slightly change their values over time. In this way, and in a Bayesian context, the parameters can be treated exactly in the same way as the system states. After building an augmented system state by concatenating the parameter vector and the state vector, the joint estimation of states and parameters reduces to filtering of the augmented state vector which makes SMC methods directly applicable to the problem.
Particle filters for state and parameter estimation
Particle filters ([12–14]) belong to the class of SMC methods for state filtering in state space models. Using the state augmentation approach, the method is also capable of estimating system parameters. The standard particle filter is designed for discrete, non-linear, and non-Gaussian models and can routinely be adapted to the continuous case with measurements at discrete times. The idea of the particle filter is that, at each time point, there is a sample based representation (the weighted particles) of the current estimate of the inner states and parameters which is based on the measurements that have been obtained up to the current time point. The particle cloud is then propagated through time, and the particles and weights are updated accordingly at each time point where measurements are available.
Non-Linear Mixed Effects models
Estimation in a Non-linear Mixed Effects model (NLME) involves the estimation of both global and individual parameters. With classical maximum likelihood estimation, the individual parameters are random variables equipped with a distribution while the global parameters remain constants with a "true" but unknown value. If the underlying model equations are non-linear, this leads to likelihood functions which are not analytically accessible and one has to rely on approximations. In the context where the system dynamics are modelled by ODEs, the most popular algorithm for NLME parameter estimation in the PK/PD context is the tool NONMEM ([15]). In [1] an estimation algorithm for NLME models based on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) was proposed that uses the First-Order Conditional Estimation (FOCE) method to approximate the likelihood in combination with the EKF estimation in the SDEs. This has been added to NONMEM ([16]). In [17], a comparison between ODE and SDE based parameter estimation has been performed which showed that the interindividual variabilities were in general estimated to be smaller for the SDE model. Donnet and Samson ([18]) proposed a stochastic version of the Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm (for the estimation of the global parameters) in combination with MCMC methods (for the estimation of states and individual parameters). However, since MCMC exhibits slow mixing properties in the context of the estimation of states and parameters in state space models, in [19] MCMC has been replaced by the more promising PMCMC approach of Andrieu et al. ([11]).
On the other hand, in a Bayesian context, also the global parameters are equipped with a (prior) probability distribution, and the conceptual difference between global and individual parameters vanishes. The mixed effects model can then be considered as a hierarchical model with dependent parameters ([20, 21], see also [22] for a more recent population-based Bayesian approach to PK/PD modelling). Simulation-based (Monte Carlo) methods can easily be adapted to this case. Nevertheless, the above mentioned challenges to both SMC and MCMC methods are even higher due to the increased number of states and parameters in NLME models (the number of states and individual parameters has to be multiplied by the number of individuals).
Aim of the article
Our goal is two-fold: Firstly, we want to show that the particle filter algorithm is applicable (with our modifications) also to more complex models when time uncertainties are formulated explicitly. Secondly, we want to show that the modification may even provide the possibility for further enhancement of the performance of the algorithm by presenting an adaptive time-stepping scheme which is only possible in the context of the new algorithm.
We do not claim that our MTU algorithm generally performs better or worse than the standard filter, nor that it should be the preferred method for estimation in non-linear mixed effects models. Rather, we provide a method which is usable for models where time uncertainties may play a major role. In these cases, it may indeed lead to better estimations. On the other hand, our method transfers the time-discrete particle filter approach, where updates based on the measurements very strictly depend on the measurement times, to a truly time-continuous approach, where updates to the filtering distributions can be performed at every point on the time-scale. Since we want to focus on the time uncertainties, we neglect discussing further issues like identifiability, model evaluation and model discrimination. In our application to the model of plasma-leucine kinetics, we try to avoid these issues by providing ad-hoc values to some of the parameters (especially to the variances of the system states).
Motivating example
Parameters for the motivating example
true value of α
true value of β
σ y
distribution of T j
truncated at and at t0
Comparing Figures 1(a) and 1(b-d), we observe that the distributions of the measurements exhibit clearly different shapes. For the "true" model depicted in Figure 1(a), if we consider a single point in time that lies in a time segment where the state values change quickly, the distribution of the measurement at this certain point in time is quite broad. The variance in the measured value is very high, whereas it is small in time segments where the state values change slowly. In contrast, for the standard particle filter, the measurement variance is constant and hence the assumed measurement distributions differ remarkably from the "true" distributions, howsoever the value of is chosen. It must be expected that this leads to difficulties when inference on the states and parameters needs to be done based on these models. We will resume our example after having presented the MTU particle filter and will show that this is indeed the case.
We divide this section into three subsections. In the first subsection, we fix the state and observation model we want to consider. In the second subsection entitled "Standard case" we outline the standard particle filter algorithm in the context of time-continuous states with time-discrete measurements, and the various probability distributions involved. Although nothing is new in this subsection, it serves several purposes. Firstly, the time-continuous case is relatively rarely considered in the literature; secondly, the derivation of our modification needs a slightly more general formulation than it is standard for the discrete-time filter; and lastly, the comparison of our modified version with the standard case might more clearly reveal the differences between the two approaches. In the third subsection entitled "MTU particle filter", we present our new modification of the particle filter. In the following section "Results and Discussion", we compare the new MTU particle filter to the standard particle filter and to an alternative Maximum Likelihood estimation method on a simple artificial example. We also present an application of our MTU-PF method to a PK/PD study in a non-linear mixed-effects setting in direct comparison with the standard particle filter.
Note: a list of all used symbols with a short explanation can be found at the end of this paper.
The model
State process
the state space restricted to the interval [t0,t], and denote by the corresponding pushforward measure. For each s and t with t>s≥t0, let Ks,t(x s , dx t ) be the Markov kernel of the process from time s to time t.
with drift a(x,t), diffusion matrix B(x,t), multidimensional standard Wiener process , and initial variable . In this case, it is possible to sample directly (at least approximately) from the kernels Ks,t when a suitable discretization method is applied, for instance the Euler-Maruyama method.
Observations / measurements
Let the process be observed via M random variables Y1:M with values in measurable spaces . Each single observation (measurement) y j depends on the state variable at some time T j and on the observation time (measurement time) T j itself. We assume that, given the observation time T j and the state , the variable y j is independent of all other variables, and the conditional measure can be expressed via some conditional probability density with respect to a reference measure on . We do not require any further restrictions on g such as linear dependence on the states or Gaussianity.
Observation / measurement times
The observation times (measurement times) T j for j=1,…,M are usually assumed to be deterministically given and known. Our variant of the particle filter will be based on the assumption that the observation times T j are themselves realizations of random variables T j . These variables model the uncertainty about exact observation times. In contrast to the observation variables y j , the observation times T j are never observed (measured). We assume that all information available to us is their probability distribution on the half axis [t0,∞), while in the case of the observations y j , we know both the densities and the observed values y j .
In this article, we will only consider the simplest case where each variable T j is independent of all others. Dependencies between the T j 's, especially concerning the order of the observation times, may be considered natural but would lead to more complicated algorithms. However, order dependencies can easily be introduced via restrictions on the support of the variables. In general, the probability distribution of every single variable T j shall be given by a density γ j (t j ) with respect to the Lebesgue measure on the interval [t0,∞).
In the following, we will consider the two cases mentioned, where either all T j are deterministic and known or all T j are random and unknown. Note that the first case formally coincides with the case that T j is random but observed. We will therefore stick to the notation for the observation densities in both cases.
Standard case: measurement times deterministic and known
We will first consider the standard case, where the observation times T j are known. For simplicity, we assume here that the observation times t1:M are strictly ordered increasingly, i.e. t0<t1⋯<t M .
The standard case of the particle filter is usually formulated for discrete-time Markov processes with general state space where the state variables are only defined at the initial time t0 and at the times t1,…,t M when measurements occur. Nevertheless, this case is included in our more general framework where X t is defined for all t≥t0. One just focuses on the state variables for those times only. In view of the later generalization to random observation times, we will consider the fixed values T j as realizations of random variables T j and condition all occurring densities on them. As mentioned above this assumption leads to the same results as if we assumed the values T j to be given deterministically.
Full model and filter model
Importance sampling
for each , and to compute as well as pointwise.
Note that if we can sample from the Markov kernels of , we can choose (at least in law), whence and . This is a standard choice, but in terms of efficiency of the particle filter algorithm not always the best one. On the other hand, finding a suitable Markov chain different from is not an easy task.
are the normalized weights. It obtains its maximal value N if all weights are equal, and it approaches 1 if the variance of the weights and thus the degree of degeneracy increases. To avoid this degeneration of the samples, a resampling step needs to be done when the ESS drops below a threshold NThreshold (which is usually chosen to be N/2).
(using (16)). The necessary correction is therefore achieved if the unnormalized weights are replaced by the corrected unnormalized weights .
such that after the resampling step the unnormalized weights are all equal to 1. Nevertheless, in general their choice is free and may be based on the observations (which is used in the so-called auxiliary particle filter [26]).
Particle filter algorithm
The particle filter computes the state realizations and weights recursively through time. In its standard form, the particle filter can be stated as in algorithm 1.
Algorithm 1 Standard particle filter
Data Likelihood
with initial estimate (see e.g. [27]).
MTU particle filter: Uncertain measurement times
We now assume that each observation time T j is a realization of a random variable T j . Its distribution is expressed via densities γ j with respect to the Lebesgue measure . The observation times T j themselves are not observed.
Full model
Filter model
Note that we cannot use the simple notation of the standard case where for filtering only the first k observations are taken into consideration at time t k , since neither the observations are ordered in time nor the times T j are fixed in advance. For this reason we have to include all measurements Y1:M also into the filter model. Note that even though we use the complete data Y1:M=y1:M in the notation, only those y j have to be known at time t for which T j ≤t holds. To avoid confusion, we mark all densities connected to the filter model at time t by a hat superscript (and by the index t).
is the data likelihood with respect to the measure .
Effective computation of the filter distributions
In the following paragraph, we will show how the densities of the filter distributions given by (26) can be effectively computed. This is the basis for the formulation of our MTU particle filter method.
This is what we wanted to show.
depends on the path . It is even more convenient to compute by evaluating the antiderivative of γ j , if it is computationally available.
Note that the definition of the filter distribution is dependent on the reference measure . A suitable change of this measure may help to further increase the efficiency of the algorithm. This issue still has to be explored.
The MTU particle filter algorithm
for each s,t∈[t0,t] with s<t exist and can be evaluated pointwise. (In fact, it suffices that ϱt | s(x t | x s ) exists for all states which are reachable from some initial state


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Lawmakers in Illinois and Rhode Island are set to consider same-sex marriage bills early this year, which could make them the 10th and 11th states to bring marriage equality to their residents.
Illinois fell just short of introducing a marriage equality bill last week before the end of the last legislative session, but lawmakers plan to put a bill forward after the new session starts January 9.
Rhode Island introduced legislation for LGBT marriage last week, which if passed would mean that same-sex couples will have the right to get legally married in every state in New England.
"We can no longer be the only New England state without marriage equality," State Rep. Gordon Fox said in a statement. "Rhode Island must be next in enacting this basic civil right to marry the one you love." The outlook on whether the bill will actually pass through the legislature is unclear.
Supporters in Illinois are more confident that their bill is a winner. "We're still working in Springfield very actively," says Jacob J. Meister, an attorney and chairman of the board of The Civil Rights Agenda, a group that has long advocated for same-sex marriage. "Even though the lame duck session is coming to an end, we've got people on the ground."
"In Illinois, it's not a question of if it's going to happen, but when it's going to happen," Meister says. "The incoming general assembly is fairly strong on the issue. We've got a number of new members of the House and Senate who are proponents of marriage equality."
Members of the LGBT community successfully campaigned against lawmakers who had voted against civil unions two years ago, resulting in a more gay-friendly lawmaking body.
"I think the common consensus in Illinois was that there was no member who was hurt for having voted for civil unions," says Meister. "Clearly there was a price to pay for those members of the general assembly who were not on our side."
Unprecedented Gains
The usual pro-discrimination forces have spoken out, such as the National Organization of Marriage which claims it will retaliate against lawmakers who support marriage equality. "Any Republican in Illinois who betrays the cause of marriage will be casting a career-ending vote and will be held accountable to their constituents," NOM President Brian Brown said in a statement.
However, the threats may have fallen on deaf ears, as Illinois Republican Chairman Pat Brady has pledged support for the measure.
The efforts in Illinois and Rhode Island follow a wave of victories for civil rights proponents who saw unprecedented advances in 2012 with hopes of even bigger things to come in the upcoming year.
Maine on Dec. 30 became the second-to-last New England state to implement marriage equality. Maryland and Washington also recently put their LGBT marriage bills into effect after both joined Maine in becoming the first states to pass equality laws through a popular ballot last November.
LGBT marriage is also legal in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York and Washington, D.C.
In what could be more good news for supporters of equality, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on March 26 and 27 on two cases, after which the justices could vote to strike down the discriminatory Defense of Marriage Act which bans federal recognition of same-sex partners, invalidate LGBT marriage bans in states nationwide, both, or neither.

subset: commoncrawl


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Play of Lights Wall Mural
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Hello everyone!
got your own comic you have created? then this is for you!
I'm from the New Zealand Broadcasting school and as my final project in my degree i am wanting to turn a comic into a pilot for a tv series or miniseries. it will be live action and filmed in the next six months.
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i am interested in all types of comics so please, reply to this thread of email me on
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text:
Quick, somebody get Savage a Xanax
Bob Glauber @BobGlauber
Jets announce they'll retire Curtis Martin's No. 28 at opening day ceremony Sept. 9 vs. Bills. Class move for a class player. @nyjets
Quick, somebody get Savage a Xanax
next up should be #80 IMO.
Well deserved truly one of the most underrated players to ever play the game when he gets inducted saturday its going to be very emotional for me.
:clap: Congrats Curtis, you earned it.....IMO ofcourse.
Sent from my LG-P999
Great Pro and even better individual. Great move
Well deserved.
Going to be a great day all around.
Can't wait to spank down the most hyped under 500 team in history and show those espn derp's whats what.
My favorite Jet of all time. Thanks Curtis
Why do this opening day though? Why not take some other random game and make it Curtis Martin Day? Would be good for ticket sales too.
No-brainer. My all-time favorite Jet.
oh great
5 AM banner raising ceremony with .1 km/h speed to emulate
the compiler's burst
should be over by game time
congrats to one of the greatest to play for the Jets...
trivia, who is the next best #28?
I will write the answer in invisible ink below, don't quote the whole post with your guess so as not to reveal...hint, it's not Pat Chaffey
#28 Darrol Ray
^^^ I've eaten at his restaurant...
Pretty decent.


text:
Philips O'Neill The Stretch headphones are difficult to review because they have a lot going for them -- excellent comfort and an affordable price tag -- but their sound, while fine, doesn't exceed expectations for an over-the-ear model in this price class.
Let's start with the positives. The Stretch, which also goes by the model number TR 55LX (or Philips SHO9567BK/28) and comes in a
Attractive design
For over-the-ear headphones, these are pretty lightweight and have nicely cushioned earcups. Aside from the relatively plush padding, what makes these guys comfortable is the dual-headband design. They have an auto-fit inner headband that's covered in stretchy "wet-suit inspired" Neoprene padding (thus, the O'Neill connection).
What's great about the auto-fit feature is that you don't have to worry about adjusting the size of the headphone band, you just put the headphones on and you're good to go (that said, these may not fit folks who have very large heads).
As for the outer headband, it's made of highly flexible translucent nylon. We gave it a good twist and it didn't break, so the headphones -- or at least their outer headband -- seems pretty durable.
When I put these on, my immediate reaction was, "Wow, these are comfortable." Editor Justin Yu had the same reaction, and they're definitely headphones that you can wear at home (or the office), as well as on the go, though your ears will get a little steamy if you were them outside on warm days, due to their closed-back design. The upside to the closed-back design is that these headphones do a good job passively sealing out noise and they don't leak sound.
I also liked that the cord on The Stretch is detachable from the earcup and that it's covered in a cloth material (think of the cord as a shoelace on a hiking boot). Alas, there's no integrated microphone for making cell-phone calls, though a step-up model (the


text:
The Draft?
Archive of discussions on NFL Draft 2003, NFL Draft 2004, NFL Draft 2005, NFL Draft 2006, NFL Draft 2007 NFL Draft 2008, NFL Draft 2009 and NFL Draft 2010.
- 1niksder
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- Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2004 1:45 pm
- Location: If I knew ... it would explain a lot but I've seen Homerville on a map, that wasn't helpful at all
Red_One43 wrote:yupchagee wrote:Red_One43 wrote:brad7686 wrote:KazooSkinsFan wrote:yupchagee wrote:brad7686 wrote:I have no idea why we didn't take a guard in the second.
I agree. Either Orlando Franklin or Ben Ijalana.
If Jenkins ends up being a good pick then a 3-4 D lineman fills a big hole, and one that's a lot harder to fill then a guard
How do you figure its harder to fill than guard? Especially for us, when we probly have three or four guys that can play there already, and no guards that are worth a crap.
You need two DE's to start, one is Carriker. Who is the other out of your three or four guys you say we already have? Having back ups in starting positions does not work. Golston? - Back up. Jarmon? Couldn't beat out Golston. Daniels? Holliday? Those two are not the future of this team. Guard not worth a crap? The O line improved a lot during the season and also let's keep in mind free agency hasn't played out yet, so picking A guard is not the answer. Picking THE right guard is the answer.
Remember Jarmon was 1st moved to LB so he lost a lot of weight, then back to DE so he gained a lot of weight. Also he was comong off a majot injury & it frequently takes more than a yr to get back to 100%. He will be a very good player.
Good points. Settling into one position and being at 100%. This could be Jarmon's breakout year. I still like the Jenkins pick because the coaches say he is a fit for what they want to do. I trust that they didn't pick a guard because they saw a priority in getting the right players to fix the 31st ranked defense. No knock intended for Golsotn either. He is a high motor guy who is a good special teamer.
Jarmon should be a producer in 2011 and hopefully, so will Jenkins. Both will be needed as will Golston, remember this is just year two of the defensive overall. They'll need a rotation of defensive lineman and simply finding one to play opposite Carriker would prove to be costly come mid-season.
Finding 3-4 defensive ends maybe harder than finding guard, but finding guards that fit Shanny's ZBS narrows any gap.
If a team needs both, it is much easier to draft a 3-4 DE to fit into a rotation and find a ZBS guard on the FA market.
With the draft coming first this year I have to believe that this is the route that they are taking.
Here's why
As mentioned (and always overlooked by the doomsayers) the offensive line progressed as the year went on. Then again starter Jammal Brown and his backup Stephon Heyer may both be on the market once a new CBA is signed, that means there is no starting RT on the roster, Hicks is no more than a backup and is a better guard than tackle anyway. Casey Rabach is like the doors at your local supermarket and is due $3 million for 2011. Yes we are still discussing why they waited until the end of the draft to select someone named Hurt
The Redskins don't need help at guard, they have a bunch of tackles that NEED to be moved inside, or off the roster. The Redskins drafted Trent Williams last year and he may still be a little raw but he is all we have. The selection of Maurice Hurt means the players they have targeted aren't coming out of school they are coming off their first contracts.
I just hope they target the right guys.
When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hold on....
If the world didn't suck we'd all fall off
When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hold on....


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Long Beach Opera Presents THE FALL OF THE HOUSE OF USHER, Now thru 2/3
THE FALL OF THE HOUSE OF USHER, a gothic horror story which blurs the line between the real world and the supernatural, opens Long Beach Opera's 2013 BORDERLINE Season. Glass' haunting 1987 score for Edgar Allan Poe's macabre masterpiece provides the perfect backdrop for this nightmarish journey to The Edge of madness.
LBO's West Coast Premiere of Usher takes place today, January 27, February 2 and 3, 2013 at the atmospheric Warner Grand Theatre in San Pedro.
USHER marks Long Beach Opera's (LBO) first co-production with Chicago Opera Theater (COT), both of which are under the direction of Andreas Mitisek.
Named by Opera News as one of 25 people who are poised to become major forces in opera in the coming decade, Andreas Mitisek is entering his 10th season as LBO's artistic and general director. "Our 2013 BORDERLINE Season introduces figures who walk the line between truth and illusion, genius and madness, "explains Mitisek, who will be conducting the performances. "The Fall of the House of Usher is about internal and external collapsing worlds. Glass' music suspends reality and time, hypnotizing us on this journey to The Edge of the real and imaginary. It's a 90 minute psychological roller coaster ride."
Ken Cazan, who staged LBO's acclaimed production of Janá?ek's The Cunning Little Vixen, returns to direct this production of The Fall of the House of Usher. Cazan is currently the Chair of Vocal Arts and Opera and Resident Stage Director at the University of Southern California's Thornton School of Music. He has directed opera, musical theater, and legitimate theater in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Norway, and Italy. Besides directing Usher, his upcoming work includes directing Poulenc's Dialogues of the Carmelites at USC and Ned Rorem's Our Town for the Central City Opera.
Long Beach Opera and Philip Glass - past productions:
Akhnaten - Terrace Theater, Long Beach, CA - March 19 & 27, 2011 The Sound of a Voice - Aratani Japan Theater, Los Angeles, CA - Nov. 18 & 19, 2006
Composer - Philip Glass
Libretto - Arthur Yorinks
The performances will take place in the Warner Grand Theatre, 478 W. 6th Street, San Pedro, Calif., today, January 27, at 2:00 pm, Saturday, February 2 at 8:00 pm and Sunday, February 3 at 2:00 pm. Opera Talks with Artistic and General Director Mitisek one hour before performances.
Madeline Usher: Suzan Hanson
Roderick Usher: Ryan MacPherson
Physician: Jonathan Mack
William: Lee Gregory
Servant: Nick Shelton
Stage Director: Ken Cazan
Lighting Design: David Jaques
Set Design: Alan E. Muraoka
Costume Design: Jacqueline Saint-Anne
Prices range from $29 to $160. Reduced prices are offered to subscribers. First-time subscribers receive a 50% discount on season tickets. Purchase tickets by calling LBO Ticket Services at 562-432-5934 or by going online to the LBO website: www.longbeachopera.org/tickets.
Saturday, Jan 19, 1:00pm
Art Theatre Long Beach, 2025 East 4th St., Long Beach, CA
Meet two American artistic pioneers from well off the beaten path: Edgar Allan Poe - the father of the "whodunit," and Philip Glass - the face and sound of 21st century American music. We've got a killer lineup that includes the LBO cast presenting teasers from Glass' The Fall of the House of Usher; The Raven, a 1915 silent documentary about Poe's tragically short life; and dramatic readings of Poe horror stories. The pièce de résistance will be a Poe/Glass mashup combining film, readings, and live performances of Glass' music for solo instruments. Guaranteed to keep audience members on The Edge of their seats!
Tickets: $20. Subscribers get special discounts on Coincidence ticket prices. Tickets can be purchased by calling the LBO Ticket Services at 562-432-5934 or by going online to LBO's website: www.longbeachopera.org/tickets.
Long Beach Opera (LBO) is internationally known for its cutting-edge interpretations of unconventional repertoire. LBO creates immediate, inventive, and often boldly avant-garde productions for an adventurous audience and stands apart from most opera companies in the number of world, American, and West Coast premieres the company has staged. Founded in 1979, it is the oldest professional opera company in the Los Angeles/Orange County region, with a performance history of more than 90 operas ranging from the earliest works of the 17th century to operas of the 21st.
Bold site-specific stagings in such places as parking structures, a trendy nightclub, the hull of an ocean liner, an Olympic swimming pool, and a furniture warehouse, as well as performances in traditional theaters, reflect the company's desire to give modern audiences an immersive theatrical experience, and to showcase opera in a new light. Through its diverse productions, special concerts, and film screenings at multiple venues in the Los Angeles/Orange County areas, an active education program, and student matinees, Long Beach Opera continues to make opera accessible to an ever-expanding audience.


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See Von Wafer swoop down the lane. See Von Wafer miss on a wide-open dunk. See Von Wafer believe that he has made the dunk. See Von Wafer face the crowd in celebration. See Von Wafer turn and collide with his teammate, who has collected his offensive board. See Von Wafer make his teammate, Jermaine O'Neal, double-dribble in surprise. See Von Wafer's wide-open dunk attempt become a turnover with three minutes to play in overtime. The Wizards went on to win, 95-94. The only thing we wish we could also see, after all this: Doc's reaction.
The Celtics lost out the second spot in the East to the Heat last night, and they'll face New York in the first round of the playoffs. We probably won't see a whole lot of Wafer. While you're reveling in his shame, head over to SB Nation to help select the NBA's "WTF Play of the Year."


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Refurbished Unit, Please see details below.
The KitchenAid Ultra Power Hand mixer features a powerful, lightweight DC motor that will provide years of quiet reliable operation. The One-Touch slide speed control easily slides control speeds and features a positive �click� at each speed setting. The KitchenAid hand mixer is designed to deliver the same legendary quality and reliability that have been built into KitchenAid Mixers since 1919, other conveniences of the mixer include a comfort angled designed handle to reduce arm fatigue, smooth styling for easy cleaning, an oversized beater ejection button, and a Non-Tip heel rest to hold the mixer stable when not in use.
The hand mixer will include a set of Turbo Beaters, which have an open shape with no center post: this design permits thorough mixing with no clogging, little splashing and minimal food collection. The Turbo beaters will mix everything from light batters to chunky cookie dough. The beaters are specially designed for better mixing action: the smooth rounded wire design of the Beater Accessories prevents clogging, evenly mixes ingredients and makes clean up virtually effortless.
This item has been Manufacturer refurbished. This item has been professionally restored to working order by KitchenAid, and is considered Factory Refurbished. This means the product has been inspected, cleaned, and repaired to meet manufacturer specifications and is in excellent condition. This item may or may not be in the original packaging, and may have minor scratches on the motor base. All Factory refurbished items come with a 6-month total replacement warranty from KitchenAid.


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Prototypal Inheritance
HEADS UP! This article was written for an older version of node. More up-to-date information may be available elsewhere.
In almost all modern programming languages we use the concept of Object Oriented Programming (OOP) to help manage the complexity of today's software. The biggest challenge in modern software is in fact managing the complexity of it.
Most languages do this with a variant OOP called Classical OOP. This is the one you see in Java, C#, C++, PHP, Ruby, and Python. It has the idea that classes should be separate from instances. Classes hold behavior and instances hold data.
While this is a great abstraction, I would like to experiment with other ideas. Prototypal inheritance gets rid of the distinction between class and instance, between constructor and method. It's just objects with inherited and local properties.
So what does JavaScript have?
From what I hear (I wasn't there at the time), JavaScript was initially a prototypal inheritance system. It was super simple like the rest of the language. But then Netscape decided to make it be more like Java and added the idea of constructors to the language. Hence pseudo classes were born.
Classical OOP
function Person(name) {
this.name = name
Person.prototype = {
greet: function () {
return "Hello world, my name is " + this.name;
var frank = new Person("Frank Dijon");
Here we have a class like object
Person. Actually it's just a regular JavaScript function, but that's how it works, there are no real classes. There are many ways to emulate classical OOP, but the most straightforward and the one designed into the language is this pattern. Only functions can have prototypes and prototypes hold instance methods. Then instances are
new instances of the function which is now dubbed a constructor.
Prototypal OOP
I don't like the
new keyword, it overloads the meaning of functions and is dangerous. If we were to say
frank = Person("Frank"), then
this inside the function would now be the global
this object, not the new instance! The constructor would be overriding all sorts of global variables inadvertently. Also bad things happen if you
return from a constructor function.
Instead try this on for size:
var Person = {
greet: function () {
return "Hello world, my name is " + this.name;
var frank = Object.create(Person);
frank.name = "Frank Dijon";
Object.create is new to JavaScript (it's part of ES5), but node supports it so we can safely use it. This creates a new object that inherits from another object.
Object.create actually can set properties right away, but the syntax is rather verbose:
Object.create(Person, {name: {value: "Frank Dijon", enumerable: true}})
There is more you can set, but
value and
enumerable are the interesting ones. What
enumerable does is tell operators like
for ... in if they should enumerate over that key. When you set a property directly, it's enumerable property is set to
true automatically.
Object.create actually defaults to false, so we could write this as:
Object.create(Person, {name: {value: "Frank Dijon"}});
Just make sure you understand that most functions like
sys.inspect and
JSON.stringify won't show the name property of frank now that it's hidden. If you pass
true as the second argument to
sys.inspect, it will show hidden properties using
var frank = Object.create(Person, {name: {value: "Frank Dijon"}})
sys.puts(sys.inspect(frank, true));
While Object.create is nice, it's still too verbose for my taste. On my projects I made a new function called
Object.spawn. Here is the source for reference:
Object.spawn = function (parent, props) {
var defs = {}, key;
for (key in props) {
if (props.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
defs[key] = {value: props[key], enumerable: true};
return Object.create(parent, defs);
Then you can create hierarchies of objects easily:
var Animal = {
eyes: 2,
legs: 4,
name: "Animal",
toString: function () {
return this.name + " with " +
this.eyes + " eyes and " +
this.legs + " legs.";
var Dog = Object.spawn(Animal, {
name: "Dog"
var Insect = Object.spawn(Animal, {
name: "Insect",
legs: 6
var fred = Object.spawn(Dog);
var pete = Object.spawn(Insect);
Now that node supports
Object.defineProperty, we can add methods to
Object.prototype that are not enumerable and thus don't break stuff.
Object.defineProperty(Object.prototype, "spawn", {value: function (props) {
var defs = {}, key;
for (key in props) {
if (props.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
defs[key] = {value: props[key], enumerable: true};
return Object.create(this, defs);
Which is used as:
var Animal = {
eyes: 2,
legs: 4,
name: "Animal",
toString: function () {
return this.name + " with " + this.eyes + " eyes and " + this.legs + " legs."
var Dog = Animal.spawn({
name: "Dog"
var Insect = Animal.spawn({
name: "Insect",
legs: 6
var fred = Dog.spawn({});
var pete = Insect.spawn({});
Where do we go from here?
I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not. You give up a lot by not having constructor functions that initialize state of objects. It could be baked into the
Object.spawn method, but then you're dealing more with classical OOP emulations.
I plan on using this technique with some upcoming projects. I'm not sure what will come of it.
View the discussion thread.blog comments powered byDisqus


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Dr. Jeff Johnson, an assistant professor of chemistry and Towsley Research Scholar at Hope College, has received an Undergraduate New Investigator Grant from the American Chemical Society's Petroleum Research Fund (ACS-PRF).
Dr. Jeff Johnson, an assistant professor of chemistry and Towsley Research Scholar at Hope College, has received an Undergraduate New Investigator Grant from the American Chemical Society's Petroleum Research Fund (ACS-PRF).
He has been awarded $50,000 for the next two years for his project "Toward Greater Understanding and Expanded Utility of the Palladium-Catalyzed Activation of Carbon-Carbon Single Bonds." The ACS makes approximately 45 of the awards nationwide each year.
The Undergraduate New Investigator grants provide funds for scientists and engineers who are in the beginning years of their independent careers in academia, and are intended as seed money for generating preliminary results that can be used in applying for further funding from other agencies. Recipients must be in departments without doctoral programs and must involve undergraduate students in the work being supported.
Johnson, who joined the Hope faculty in 2007, is working collaboratively with Hope students on developing new organic reactivity catalyzed by transition metals. Work to be supported by this grant involves the detailed investigation of a known reaction that breaks carbon-carbon bonds - a transformation that is extremely difficult to achieve using traditional organic chemistry. Results from these initial studies will be utilized to develop previously unknown methods for the construction of organic intermediates such as those suitable for the production of complex organic molecules such as pharmaceuticals. Ultimately, he hopes to intercept intermediates from carbon-carbon bond cleavage with carbon dioxide to develop a reaction capable of producing basic organic starting materials currently derived from petroleum.
External support that he has received since joining the Hope faculty totals more than $0.5 million and includes a five-year Camille and Henry Dreyfus Faculty Start-Up Award, a Research Corporation Cottrell College Science Award and a National Science Foundation - Major Research Instrumentation award for a remotely accessible 400 MHz NMR spectrometer. The college named him a Towsley Research Scholar in January of this year, providing additional support for his research program for the next four years.
Prior to coming to Hope, Johnson served as a National Institutes of Health Postdoctoral Fellow at Colorado State University. He previously completed his doctorate in chemistry at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2004.
He mentored undergraduate students while engaged in research at both Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He also participated in undergraduate research himself as a student at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minn., from which he earned his bachelor's degree in chemistry in 2000.
Founded in 1876, the American Chemical Society is a nonprofit organization chartered by the U.S. Congress. With more than 161,000 members, ACS is the world's largest scientific society and a global leader in providing access to chemistry-related research through its multiple databases, peer-reviewed journals and scientific conferences. Its main offices are in Washington, D.C. and Columbus, Ohio.
The society's Petroleum Research Fund supports fundamental research directly related to petroleum or alternate energy at nonprofit institutions, generally colleges and universities, in the United States and other countries. The first ACS PRF grants were approved in 1954.


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Lohan vs. Hilton
(May 15, 7:15PM ET) -- It was a drama filled night Friday at Hyde, a Hollywood hotspot packed with celebrities. Sources inside the club tell TMZ there was a ton of trash talk between Lindsay Lohan and the Hilton sisters. At one point, sources say, Lindsay and Paris were literally face-to-face in a heated spat.
Paris' rep, Elliot Mintz, plays down the incident. "Inside the club," he says, "Paris was having a conversation with a couple friends. Lindsay approached her table and at that moment Paris felt she was being interrupted and didn't wish to speak with Lindsay. A couple of words were exchanged and Lindsay went back to her table. I can understand how other patrons in the club could have thought it had been a bigger deal then it actually was."
Sources tell TMZ that the root of this apparent tension may be because Lindsay has recently been on a publicity campaign for her new film, 'Just My Luck.' Sources say Paris is upset because during the campaign Lindsay has mentioned Paris' name in interviews with the media. They say Paris feels as if Lindsay is using Paris' name to further her career.
Our own Josh Levine caught up with Nicky, Paris and their friend Brandon Davis leaving the club, who had a few choice words of his own to say about the redheaded star.
Lindsay's publicist told TMZ, "Lindsay doesn't need to drop names to get publicity. She has talent, great style and beauty."


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For all its success as the world's biggest maker of PC operating systems and office programs, Microsoft's position as the dominant provider of software to consumers is at risk.
While Windows still powers the vast majority of desktops and laptops, the emergence of mobile devices and increasing reliance on the Internet have shown consumers and businesses alike that much of what we call personal computing can be done without touching a single Microsoft product.
Microsoft is still a giant, with $70 billion in annual revenue and an amazing 11 products that earn at least $1 billion a year. But it faces challenges in search, Web browsing, mobile devices, Web server software, and even the desktop operating system market.
In this article, we will examine what we think are Microsoft's five biggest weaknesses, a list we came up with in conjunction with the analyst firm Directions on Microsoft. We provided the list and supporting facts to Microsoft's public relations firm on Aug. 15. Microsoft declined to make executives available for interviews, but provided responses to some of our questions via email. We'll include Microsoft responses at the end of each section.
1. Search
Let's start with the easy one. If you use the word "Google" as a verb, you know how far Microsoft's own Bing search engine has to travel before it can be called a success. Microsoft's earnings reports break the business down into five product divisions, and the Online Services Division powered by Bing and MSN is the only one that consistently loses money, including $2.6 billion lost over the past 12 months.
Bing, which also powers Yahoo and offers a fancy iPad app, often gets high marks in studies that rate the effectiveness of search engines, yet Google captures about two-thirds of U.S. market share and more than 80% of the global market.
Microsoft rarely masks its hatred of all things Google, which makes most of its money on search advertising while investing in other products that eat into Microsoft market share, like Chrome and Android.
But with Bing, "They're so far behind, it's a long slog," says Wes Miller, a former Microsoft Windows program manager who is now research vice president at Directions on Microsoft. "People innately think of Google for search. How do you replace Kleenex? They're going to have to keep burning money for the foreseeable future until they can come up with something that out-Googles Google."
Microsoft cares about search because of advertising revenue, and also because Google has become synonymous with the Internet in almost the same way Microsoft became synonymous with personal computers.
Microsoft's response: "This is a long-term game for Bing," Microsoft said via email. "Bing continues to be focused on creating a great consumer experience, solid execution and steady market share growth. The most recent comScore market share report shows that Bing is continuing to make gains in the U.S., reaching 14.4 percent explicit core search share in June. Overall, Bing increased market share by more than 50 percent since launch."
2. Browsers
Once upon a time, Microsoft's Internet Explorer commanded greater than 90% market share, dominating the Web browser market as much as Windows dominates PCs today. The Microsoft monopoly earned itself antitrust penalties by beating Netscape into submission, but it wasn't until the rise of Mozilla's Firefox (a descendant of Netscape) and Google's Chrome that the monopoly would be broken.
Nowadays, Microsoft loses browser share almost every single month, dropping to 52.71% in total number of users, according to Net Applications, and to 42.45% in total page views, according to StatCounter. The discrepancy between numbers of users and amount of usage suggests that the Web's heaviest users are the ones who replace the default Internet Explorer with Firefox and Chrome.
Microsoft's Internet Explorer 9 took steps forward in speed, the user interface, and ability to display sophisticated content like HTML5, and Microsoft is moving to a faster release schedule that brings improvements to users on a more regular basis. Perhaps just as important, Microsoft has made IE9 available only on the newest versions of Windows, arguing that creating browsers that work across all types of computers drives quality down by appealing to the lowest common denominator.
In other words, Microsoft says Google's Chrome and Mozilla's Firefox are hobbled because they run across Windows, Mac, Linux and older, less capable versions of Windows such as XP. Microsoft wants you to believe that unless you buy a new version of Windows, you won't get the best browsing experience.
"In the future, the browser is only as good as the operating system and the device it runs on," IE Senior Director Ryan Gavin argued several months ago. "We have to think about these things as being integrated."
Internet Explorer itself isn't a moneymaker for Microsoft, although it can be used to direct consumers to Microsoft's online services. Theoretically, someone who tries out Chrome and likes it better than IE is a potential customer for other Google products, and someone who tries out Safari and likes it may become enamored with Apple.
Because of the move from locally installed applications to the Web, the browser is becoming "the portal into your world," says IDC analyst Al Gillen. "The reason Microsoft wants to fight movement is if you can wrestle the browser away from Microsoft, the more your interface to the rest of the world becomes your browser, and you worry more about what browser you're running than what operating system you're running."
Microsoft's response: Microsoft declined to answer questions about Internet Explorer, but pointed to a blog post by executive Roger Capriotti, who notes that IE9 is gaining popularity among Windows 7 users and business customers.
3. Mobile phones and tablets
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer famously laughed at Apple's iPhone in 2007, saying, "It's the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard, which means it's not a very good email machine. ... We have great Windows Mobile devices in the market today. I look at that and say I like our strategy, I like it a lot. We're selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year. Apple is selling zero phones a year."
Obviously, Ballmer underestimated the iPhone's appeal, at least publicly. Three years later, when Microsoft unveiled Windows Phone 7, company officials admitted they had to start from scratch. After a botched Windows Phone 7 software update broke devices that were already in the hands of consumers, Microsoft's Windows Phone VP Joe Belfiore said Microsoft was still learning how to push out phone updates, a bizarre situation for a company that had been building phone software for years.
Windows Phone 7 has posted strong customer satisfaction ratings, but it doesn't have all that many customers. It turns out Windows phone Q2 sales dropped from 3 million last year to 1.7 million this year, making the device even less popular than Bada, a smartphone operating system developed on the side by Samsung, which puts most of its mobile efforts into Google's Android.
Things look even worse in the tablet market, which is utterly dominated by Apple's iPad. Windows 7 tablets aren't optimized for touch screens, and Windows 8 won't be out until sometime next year.
A partnership with Nokia (which dumped Symbian in favor of Windows Phone 7) and the demise of HP's webOS may help, but predictions from analyst firms IDC and Gartner that Windows Phones will top the iPhone in market share by 2015 were surprising to many. Even after the Bada numbers came out, Gartner stood by its prediction that Windows will become the No. 2 mobile platform behind Android by 2015, although it said the turnaround will not start immediately and will happen mostly outside of the United States. Even this optimistic scenario depends on the vast majority of Nokia Symbian users switching to Nokia Windows phones, instead of the more popular iPhones and Androids.
"The question, again, is Nokia Windows Phone 7's white knight?" Miller says. "I think Nokia makes some brilliant hardware, but I'm not sure it's really enough to pull consumers in."
Developer interest in the platform will, as always, be crucial. One challenge is that instead of scaling its phone OS up to tablets, Microsoft has chosen to adapt its desktop OS to potential iPad competitors. This means applications built for Windows phones will be difficult to port to Windows tablets. Microsoft is set to release more details about Windows 8 in September at its BUILD conference, and this is one question Miller believes the company should address. "My hope is we will see something about app unification at BUILD," he says.
Microsoft's response: Microsoft declined to comment about Windows 8, and did not answer questions about Windows Phone 7 market share or the application development issue. Instead, Microsoft released this statement:
"*IDC has forecasted that Windows Phone will be the number two operating system worldwide by 2015. (IDC, March 2011)
*The Samsung Focus running Windows Phone 7 was voted the favorite AT&T smartphone in PC Mag's Readers Choice Awards. 'The Samsung phones had better reliability and call quality and were also noted as being the best for gaming: Windows Phone 7 devices come with Microsoft's excellent Xbox Live.' (PCMAG.com)
*There are more than 45,000 registered Windows Phone developers.
*Customers have access to nearly 30,000 apps and games on Windows Phone Marketplace, with an average of 100 added each day."
4. The desktop
Arguing that Windows is a weakness takes some work. Really, it is a potential weakness, but an important one because it is also Microsoft's greatest strength. The 80% to 90% market share Windows holds on desktops and laptops is the reason Microsoft has direct access to most of the personal computing users on Earth, so even small percentage drops in sales are problematic. Windows 7 has sold more than 400 million copies, but revenue declined 2% in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
While Windows 8 will be optimized for both PCs and tablets, Microsoft is holding off on any big announcements regarding the next OS until the BUILD conference in mid-September.
"With a $32 billion chunk of Microsoft's business (Windows Client and Office combined) dependent upon Windows 8's long-term success, it is a fair statement that Windows 8 may well be one of the biggest bets any company has made in a long time," Gillen writes in a new IDC paper titled "Getting Back in the Game: Can Windows 8 Reverse Microsoft's Position?"
There have been various arguments that the PC is dead, but a more accurate description comes from 41-year IBM veteran Irving Wladawsky-Berger, who says the PC is the new mainframe: still profitable, but no longer the center of innovation.
Innovation is happening in cloud computing, and smartphones and tablets. With Microsoft struggling to gain any foothold in mobile devices, the biggest immediate danger to the Windows franchise is that smartphone and tablet buyers will delay the purchases of their next PCs.
It's hard to imagine large segments of the population doing without PCs entirely, but someone who spends hours each day with a smartphone or tablet might wait five to seven years to buy a new desktop or laptop. The 10-year-old Windows XP is still the most widely used version of Windows, after all. And as more people buy Androids, iPhones and iPads, Microsoft's share of all Internet-connected devices will erode.
"All the competitors would like to have you think that next year Microsoft hits the wall and the PC business is cut in half," Gillen says. "That is not what's going to happen. What is happening is we have a proliferation of other devices that are competing with Windows for mindshare. But at the end of the day, users, especially business users, need PCs."
Microsoft should position the PC as the hub for all other devices to connect to, from phones to television sets. The company should also consider building more software for non-Microsoft platforms, if it wants users to interact with Microsoft software no matter which device they are using. One key change Microsoft is embracing is the ARM chip architecture, popular in mobile devices and which Windows will now support in addition to Intel x86 processors.
One rumor is that Microsoft and hardware partners will build an ARM-powered laptop with a removable screen that becomes a tablet when separated from the keyboard. One Microsoft advantage is that all the rich applications running on Windows will be available to tablets. But Microsoft will need a user interface that is a compelling alternative to the simplicity of the iPad, and provide strong battery life and quick if not instant startup time.
"Beyond the user interface the other question is what does battery life look like with this, whether you're talking about ARM or Intel," Miller says. "If they're not really efficient, this could bring out the worst of the ARM system and show you why nobody's been able to make a kick-butt x86 tablet to date."
On start times, Miller says, "Windows needs to get to the point where boot time isn't something people think about." Unfortunately for Microsoft, the monthly security patches are an effective deterrent to hackers yet force users into long restarts. "I don't expect that to change in Windows 8," Miller says.
Microsoft's challenge was underscored by HP's decision to try to sell its PC business. HP is the No. 1 seller of Windows PCs, but Miller says "the tablet effect is real," driving down PC sales even though there is really only one successful tablet, namely the iPad. If Android tablets ever take off, Microsoft could be in a lot of trouble.
Microsoft's response: Microsoft declined to answer Network World's questions about Windows 8, but we expect to learn more at BUILD, and we'll learn a lot more next year when Windows 8-powered devices start shipping. For now, Microsoft has set up a blog called "Building Windows 8" to discuss progress.
"Windows 8 reimagines Windows," writes Windows President Steven Sinofsky. Robust USB 3.0 support and better file management are on the way, the blog promises.
5. Web servers
Just as Windows client software dominates the desktop, Windows server software makes big bucks in the enterprise IT market. IDC numbers from the second quarter of 2011 show that Windows Server accounted for "45.5% of overall quarterly factory revenue and 71.0% of all quarterly server shipments." The rest goes to Unix, mainframes, Linux and other platforms.
While not as impressive as Microsoft's desktop share, Redmond can count on a steady revenue stream from businesses using Windows Server to host Microsoft applications such as Exchange and SharePoint, and non-Microsoft applications from the likes of Oracle.
Microsoft's real server struggle is in the Web server space. Although Microsoft's IIS Web server software that's used with Windows powers more than 60 million websites, that only accounts for 16.8% of the market, which is dominated by the free software Apache, according to Netcraft.
Also according to Netcraft, nine of the 10 most reliable hosting companies run Linux or FreeBSD, with just one using Windows. Surveys by W3Techs show Linux and other Unix-like OSs account for 64% of websites.
These numbers wouldn't include private intranets, but the fast-growing world of the public Web is one where Microsoft would like a stronger foothold. Few people actually use Linux desktops, but Linux enthusiasts will tell you that when you point your browser to Google or Facebook, you're using a Linux-powered service.
Microsoft's Web server problems date to the early 2000s when security holes gave the company's technology a bad reputation, Gillen says.
The technology has improved, but Linux and Apache are free, and therefore hard to beat.
"I think they've got the technology there, they're marketing it pretty well," Miller says. "The [Microsoft] server guys are running on all cylinders and understand how these things are working."
The Web has been crucial to our daily lives for years, but is taking on even greater prominence as cloud computing technologies move consumer applications and business services from home computers and private data centers to online services. But if Microsoft can't build the servers that power third-party websites, the company can build clouds of its own.
Office 365, released this year, brings Microsoft's Exchange, SharePoint, Lync and Office to the cloud, and has been well received, an important step in Microsoft's competition against Google Apps. Perhaps just as important to Microsoft's long-term success is Windows Azure, a service that lets developers build Web applications and host them in Microsoft data centers.
So far, Azure is far behind Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud in the market for building and hosting websites. But a successful Azure, Gillen argues, could sidestep the Windows Server problem by giving developers a simpler way to build applications. Azure even has an advantage over Amazon in that its platform-as-a-service model abstracts away a lot of the operating system management required of Amazon customers.
At the recent LinuxCon conference, open source advocates said the next innovative Internet businesses along the lines of Google or Facebook will almost certainly be built on Linux.
"But there's nothing that says you can't build that on Windows Azure," Gillen says.
Still, Azure alone would have to be a giant hit to eliminate Microsoft's Web server worries. Azure attracted just 31,000 customers who built 5,000 applications in its first year of existence.
"Public Web servers are a very important dimension for Microsoft to be successful in," Gillen says. "If they can't win there, that does suggest there is a good opportunity for cloud to land on Linux as well."
Microsoft's response: Microsoft declined to answer Network World's questions regarding Web servers, but pointed to a year-old case study showing how the Associated Press uses Windows Server, calling it "an example of a large website betting on Microsoft's web server technologies."
Conclusion: Microsoft isn't going anywhere. The company's wide mix of software will help it stay relevant to businesses and consumers for many years to come. But the rise of mobile devices and companies like Google, Apple and Amazon has come at Microsoft's expense. Although Microsoft revenue is still growing, the days when a single company controls the user interface of nearly every personal computer are long gone and may never return.


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Fulham have taken drastic action in their bid to beat relegation by sacking Rene Meulensteen and appointing Felix Magath as first-team manager.
Former Manchester United coach Meulensteen was appointed head coach under Martin Jol, only to take control of first-team duties on December 1 following his compatriot's sacking.
However, with the bottom-placed west Londoners four points adrift of Barclays Premier League safety chairman Shahid Khan has wielded the axe again.
Magath has been installed as first-team manager on an 18-month contract, with Meulensteen confirming his exit from the club despite the club statement not mentioning his name.
German manager Magath arrives at Craven Cottage with an impressive CV, having won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich in 2005 and 2006, and then Wolfsburg in 2009.
Commenting on the decision, chairman Khan told the club's official website: "I am very happy to welcome Felix Magath to Fulham Football Club.
"Felix is an accomplished manager with multiple honours in the Bundesliga and a hunger to replicate his success with Fulham in the Barclays Premier League.
"I'm especially impressed with the reputation Felix has for coming into clubs at difficult times, often late in the season, and lifting them to their potential and beyond.
"Felix knows that is precisely the task awaiting him at Fulham, and he made it abundantly clear that he wants and is ready for the opportunity.
"Our club has shown promise in recent matches, but the fact is we have not won a league match since January 1.
"Given our form, we can no longer merely hope that our fortunes will finally turn. And with 12 matches remaining and at least four points separating us from safety, we certainly can no longer post empty results. Action was required.
"(Chief executive) Alistair Mackintosh did a wonderful job during the January transfer window to improve our club.
"This week, Alistair recommended Felix, with his history of producing results for clubs with similar challenges as ours, as the new manager of Fulham.
"Alistair's recommendation received my complete approval and Felix has my unequivocal support."
While Fulham are bottom of the Premier League and four points adrift of safety, the decision to sack Meulensteen with only 12 matches remaining has taken the football world by surprise.
Last Sunday the Dutchman led the Whites to a 2-2 draw at Manchester United and on Wednesday his side put in an impressive performance against Liverpool, only for the league's in-form side to win 3-2 thanks to a stoppage-time penalty.
Meulensteen was informed of the decision by chief executive Mackintosh and believes the decision to press the "panic button" was wrong.
"I am very, very surprised, very disappointed, very frustrated as well, because the job that I stepped into was one that took me by surprise from the start, because that was not anticipated with Martin Jol leaving and obviously you then have to step into (a) situation which is not the best," he told BBC Radio 5 Live.
"You need to try and make things better as soon as you can, but you're playing with a deck of cards that are not yours.
"I haven't really been given any time to make that work. I thought the performances against Manchester United and Liverpool were very, very good and it was unfortunate that we did not pick up the points that we deserved.
"Twelve games to go, plenty of points to play for and I'm sure we would have turned it around.
"I've not been told anything. I knew the owners were freaking out and panicking about the fact that Fulham could get relegated, but they've had that sort of attitude already 10 games back.
"They've hit the panic button on emotions of fear, but hey-ho, that's what happens in football. It's not always fair."
Meulensteen's departure sees Magath return to club management for the first time since leaving Wolfsburg in 2012.
He had been strongly linked with a return to former club Hamburg this week, but withdrew interest in replacing Bert van Marwijk due to differences of opinion at board level.
"Here we go again, I'm coming back into football," Magath said via his Facebook account. "I am manager of Fulham with immediate effect. It's a fantastic working environment for any coach and footballer.
"This amazing club, steeped in tradition, and its owner Shahid Khan have totally convinced me and given me the managerial responsibility.
"I would like to thank the club and the owner for this faith.
"I'm looking forward to (moving to) London and particularly to the fans and employees of Fulham, in particular the backroom staff and team there.
"I'm now looking forward to the football and even more so to the work."


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Mayonnaise Mason Recipes
Shrimp Crostini with Saffron Aioli (+Saffron Giveaway)
This is a recipe that combines two of my favorite ingredients: shrimp and saffron. Specifically, I made a shrimp crostini with saffron aïoli. I flavored the mayonnaise with garlic and freshly ground saffron threads. I placed the shrimp on a bed of toasted bread to create a nice contrast of texture. The taste of the saffron is so intense in the aïoli sauce that it feels almost sinful.
Today's giveaway is an awesome combination of pure saffron threads & vanilla from Saffron.com. There are few things in this world as fragrant, exotic or luxurious as saffron. I love using it in drinks, savory and sweet dishes. It's as versatile as it is unique. Quality can vary greatly, and the saffron from Saffron.com is some of the best I've had, which is a tribute to the passion of the owner, Juan. For a chance to win, just enter on our 25 Days of Giveaways page.
We're in the home stretch of the giveaways, and we have some really special ones in store for you, including a Zojirushi rice cooker, some very fine chocolates from John Kelly Chocolates, and a huge assortment of AMAZING goat dairy products from Redwood Hill Farms. Don't forget to enter!
Make sure you're a fan of PhamFatale Facebook fan page or follow @Phamfatalecom and tweet about this giveaway. To make it easy, you can just copy and paste this tweet if you'd like: "Win Saffron and Vanilla #Giveaway from @Phamfatalecom: http://bit.ly/sp4V7y".
Full Recipe...


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Need that perfect gift for your little doll mommy? Built for all 18″ dolls including American Girl, Today Girl, Journey Girl, Madame Alexander, My Twinn, Our Generation, KidKraft Sadie, Gotz and Disney Princess and more. After many months of planning, shopping, designing, building and furnishing, I am offering this one of a kind dollhouse for $3000.00.
Designed, built, handcrafted and lovingly assembled for your princess just in time for Christmas. Give your little girl a place to play and store all of her American Girl treasures!!
Two pieces, designed for delivery, assembled stands 80″ tall. But that doesn't include the rooftop garden! Overall dimensions: 80″h x 25″d x 48″w. This was hand built by my son and I in our home and has many extras you won't find in any other house.
Three levels boasts a bedroom with adjoining bathroom, living room with fireplace and a state of the art kitchen with built in cabinets and turquoise appliances. Everything pictured is included with the exception of the doll. The doll is not included.
The pink bedroom with handcrafted bed and handmade linens sewn in awesome shades of pink. Includes a pillow with pillow case. Matching dresser in shades of pink (also called ombré style of painting) with four functional drawers. To round out the bedroom, we have a deep red wood stained armoire with a bar for hanging and three small drawers.
Enter the bathroom through the door in the bedroom to find a clawfoot bathtub, toilet and sink. Pink towel set – bath towel, hand towel and washcloth and a small basket with shampoo, conditioner and bath soap. The room is complete with actual white square tiles and baseboards.
The kitchen is like no other you will ever see! Taking up the entire second floor, it boasts built in glass door cupboards above and below. Stainless steel sink with extendable sink sprayer sits on top of a glass tile countertop in beautiful shades of turquoise. The cupboard next to the store has a solid wood surface perfect for chopping vegetables, and houses a mixer and baking pans. Microwave above the over (sorry, door doesn't open) but the range has an opening door with two wire shelves and plastic door to see when those pastries are browned. Refrigerator comes stocked with vegetables and food for hosting that perfect holiday party. Pantry next to the 'fridge also boasts soup and assorted canned vegetables.
The kitchen floor is a beautiful hardwood floor, three coats of varnish and three coats of polyurethane. This will look beautiful for years of play. Same floor on the third floor, and has a hand hooked rug in between upholstered sofas. Put your feet up and relax in front of the fireplace (extra firewood in the wood box). A small table with a sewing box is near for mending socks on a late night. Plenty of room to include a Christmas tree for your dolls!
On top, we have one more relaxing space… three piece wicker set with heart motif is surrounded by pots of colorful flowers. A wonderful place to enjoy the sunshine with a glass of tea!
Please keep in mind that I am simply someone who likes to tinker and collect, I am not a master carpenter so this is unique albeit not perfect. The small imperfections make it a one of a kind but built and furnished with love and laughter!
Keep in mind that although lots of little extras have been provided, there is still plenty of room to add your own special touches. Pictures, posters, doll clothes, food, dishes, jewelry… all those things that will make this dollhouse your daughter's own.
Dollhouse will be available for local pick up in Kansas City MO once payment is received. Feel free to email me with ANY questions.
With regards to shipping: I want to work with you to make this your little girl's perfect Christmas. I can deliver locally in and around Kansas City area for $50. That includes delivery and set up in your home. I will work with you on getting it to you, inquire about delivery outside the area, please send me an email. Of course you are always welcome to swing through town and pick it up!
Please remember: The doll is not included. Everything else is.
I would love to hear your comments, questions, your own experiences. See previous posts for more in depth instructions and photos. I've truly enjoyed this process, but am ready to move on to something new and challenging.
Thanks for stopping by!


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From MeritBadgeDotOrg
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To format content within a MediaWiki installation (running on a LAN, WAN, or WWW server), such as:
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....using MediaWiki markup (a.k.a., Wiki markup, wikitext, wiki text), as opposed to "plain text" or "HTML".
- Noun: Wikification
- Verb: Wikifying; wikified
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See also
- Wikipedia — Help:Wiki markup
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text: Megan Hoogland: Why in the Hell Do I Still Do So Many Conventions? By Megan Hoogland I'm sick, and I know why I'm sick. I was on the road for three weeks in a row and it was too much. I came home and came down with the plague as soon as I set foot in Minnesota. (I would like to say I'm allergic to this place but that would be an easy out.) This has happened before, so why do I do it? I have three kids and a shop and a house to take care of… It's a lot and I know there are a lot of us in the same boat. Then throw tattooing and all that comes with that into the mix... Some days it feels that something has to give. In my world right now it's my health, fine… I'll slow down for a week and lay on the couch. Whether I like it or not I'm going to watch a lot of Netflix and be bored… There's my balance. Because once I get going again I'm still not going to change a thing. I love that I get to wake up with the kids at 7 a.m. (Okay, not really but I get to see them and it gets me going) and bust my ass all day to come home and play mom again 'til they go to bed and I get to answer e-mails. So why do so many conventions? Because I get to see a lot of my friends in the same place for a whole weekend, because I'm finally busy wherever I go, but most of all because I still love what I do, and I know I'm not going to learn what I've learned on the road by sitting in my shop everyday. I'm still learning, and I learn something new at every show I go to. To me this industry is not about just tattooing, but getting to know and spending time with other artists and participating. I'm sick of the egos in this business, sick of the scratchers, sick of the groupies on the magazine covers, and sick of being asked when I'm gonna be on TV. I choose to put my time and energy into bettering myself as a tattooist, as painful as that may be, by doing shows and guest spots, spending time with other artists that inspire me, and participating. I feel like I'm taking a risk right now by writing this because I fear negative feedback, but to me participation in this industry is more important to me than my fears. And speaking of fears, why do I let them get in my way so often? Thank God plane tickets are so expensive or there are many times I would have bailed on a trip early to get back in my comfort zone… And then I would miss an awesome trip from happening if I would just fucking relax... Why do I fear criticism when it's the one thing I desire to better myself? I'll have to work on that one for a while… bottom-line right now is that I travel because I love my job. I wouldn't put myself out there if I didn't… Megan Hoogland can be found at: Mecca Tattoo 418 S. Front Street Mankato, MN 56001 USA 507.720.0040


text: Betsy O. Barefoot Betsy O. Barefoot is a writer, researcher, and teacher whose special area of scholarship is the first-year seminar. During her tenure at USC from 1988 to 1999, she served as co-director for research and publications at the National Resource Center for The First-Year Experience and Students in Transition. She also taught University 101 and graduate courses on the first-year experience and the principles of college teaching. She conducts first-year seminar faculty training workshops around the world and is frequently called on to evaluate first-year seminar outcomes. Betsy is co-director and senior scholar in the Policy Center on the First Year of College and Vice President of the John N. Gardner Institute for Excellence in Undergraduate Education both in Brevard, N.C. In her Policy Center role she led a major national research project to identify institutions of excellence in the first college year. She currently works with both two- and four-year campuses in evaluating all components of the first year. Visit Author's Page »


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The American dream, and The zoo story: two plays
New American Library, 1963 - Drama - 127 pages
From inside the book
84 pages matching Edward Albee in this book
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LibraryThing ReviewUser Review - TakeItOrLeaveIt - LibraryThing
The Zoo story is a riveting tale of a "permanent transient" in conversation with a family man. Dealing with class issues, liberalism v stoicism, and the rise of the American progressivist, Albee ... Read full review
LibraryThing ReviewUser Review - flh4ever - LibraryThing
The American Dream is so bizarre but then absurdists would say that so is life. We're born, we wait around or play games, and then we die. The language doesn't matter, the point doesn't matter, none ... Read full review
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American Dream animal archway BARKER Oh BARKER Yes beige from wheat Bessie Smith better bumble called cats cried DADDY Grandma DADDY Yes Daddy's David Diamond Day-Old Cake dear lady doorbell rings dreadful Edward Albee exits eyes face feel fight funny girl GRANDMA Oh GRANDMA Yup hamburger happened hello Howard Taubman JERRY Oh JERRY Peter kimono knife landlady laugh listen little ladies live look lovely little married mean mind Mommy and Daddy MOMMY Daddy MOMMY Grandma MOMMY Of course MOMMY Off stage MOMMY Oh MOMMY Yes move movie never nice old Pop parakeets Pause Pekinese PETER Oh pretty Puzzles remember roominghouse Sandbox satisfaction sauterne smile snarl sorry stop sure talk television tell Tennessee Williams there's things thought told wait want this bench watch what's Whitney Balliett woman wrapped Yoo-hoo York you-know-what YOUNG MAN Yes Zoo Story