text:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. single-family home sales fell slightly in October and sales for the prior month were revised sharply lower, casting a faint shadow over one of the brighter spots in the U.S. economy.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales dropped 0.3 percent last month to a 368,000-unit annual rate, while September's sales pace was revised to 369,000 from 389,000.
The housing sector has been a point of relative strength this year in an economy beset by flagging business confidence and cooling demand from abroad.
A report last week showed a surprisingly sharp gain in home resales in October, while data this week showed prices for single-family homes have risen continuously since February.
Economists expect home construction to add to economic growth this year for the first time since 2005.
Wednesday's data did not change the view that housing is still in recovery mode, although the pace of new home sales in October was below the level of May, suggesting little upward momentum. "It's just that progress will be slow," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
Separately, the Federal Reserve said in its anecdotal Beige Book report the market for single-family homes improved in most areas of the nation from late-October through mid-November.
The report, based on comments from the Fed's business contacts, said the economy had grown at a "measured" pace over that period, with consumer spending expanding moderately but manufacturing activity softening. Hiring remained modest, it said.
Weakness in business spending has been restraining growth, but housing has helped offset that. Consumer confidence has also been more bullish.
Wednesday's home sales report showed the median sales price for a new home in October was 5.7 percent higher than a year earlier, but the pace of year-over-year price gains slowed for a second straight month.
U.S. home-builder stocks fell on the data, even as broad market indexes rose slightly.
Some analysts suggested the decline in sales in October might be partially due to a mammoth storm that slammed into the U.S. East Coast at the end of October. New sales plunged 32.3 percent in the Northeast, which bore the brunt of the storm.
"Some of this could potentially be Hurricane Sandy," said Megan McGrath, an analyst at MKM Partners in Stamford, Connecticut.
However, the Commerce Department said the storm did not affect data collection at all and its impact on sales was likely "minimal."
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales rising to a 390,000-unit rate last month from September's previously reported 389,000-unit rate.
To provide support for the housing market, the Fed has kept interest rates at rock-bottom levels since 2008. In September, it launched an open-ended program to buy mortgage-backed securities, driving mortgage rates to record lows.
In a third report, the Mortgage Bankers Association said applications for home purchase loans rose 2.6 percent last week to their highest level of the year.
Additional reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti in New York; Editing by Neil Stempleman and Tim Ahmann


text:
Luxe Pineapple Float
Color: please select a color
Size: please select a size
One Size
FREE worldwide express delivery. Details
Style # SLIFE30134
Need Assistance? Contact Us Now
An oversized SunnyLife pool float in the shape of a pineapple. Inflation valve at side.
Inflation valve at side
Imported, China
This item cannot be gift-boxed
Width: 35in / 89cm
Length: 77.5in / 197cm
Inflation valve at side
Imported, China
This item cannot be gift-boxed
Width: 35in / 89cm
Length: 77.5in / 197cm
Shipping & Returns
Free Shipping Worldwide: No matter where you are sending your order, we offer free express shipping across the globe. Shipping Details
Easy Returns: Because we understand that not every purchase is exactly right, we've made returns easy. With the return form and return shipping label included with every order, customer service calls aren't necessary. And if you're in the USA, returns are free. Return Details
Shipping Available: Shipping Within USA Only: For Amazon Prime members, free two-day shipping is available for all Shopbop & East Dane products.
About the Designer
Australian outdoor accessories label SunnyLife was launched in 2003 with the aim of sharing the brand's vision of the good life with the world. The design team approaches each collection with a fresh sense of fun, employing design concepts that balance utility with a playful perspective. Bright colors and lively patterns add a signature stylish element to the functional designs, and complement the lighthearted feel of SunnyLife accessories.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
|2012-03-31, 21:36
|Link #241
Junior Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Jesus that's gonna take forever. So long just to read this short story =(. I was so ready for it too- I check the patch site everyday for updates and now I'll have to wait for months..... Oh well.... Thank you for responding. I almost didn't expect a reply due to the time the last post was created. Well continue doing what you're doing. You're team is doing an excellent thing and I'm rooting for you!
|2012-04-01, 08:14
|Link #242
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
It's a pain, I know… I myself didn't manage to get a copy of the first printing, and had to wait a while for the next batch to be produced. Even now, I don't have a copy of Higanbana: The Second Night yet.
Heh, I subscribe to this thread so I get an email every time someone posts in it.
Anyway, thanks for your support.
|2012-04-26, 12:07
|Link #246
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
I can't really read Japanese, but I wonder if this might help?
Judging from Google Translate, it seems it means something like a 'couple', or perhaps two people who are very close (possibly related)? …Or something to do with potatoes.
EDIT: Therefore I'd interpret the title of this piece of music as Spider Lily ~The conclusion of each couple is dawn~, which doesn't really make much sense. Maybe it's something like Spider Lily ~The story of each couple concludes at dawn~ or something… I could be way off. xD
|2012-04-26, 14:49
|Link #248
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
Hmmm We don't have that much left to translate, so the translation should be finished next month. After that, I'll try to quickly go through the last chapter, fixing any typos and whatnot. Otherwise, there are still a few other bits and bobs to do, such as translating some of the menu images, and of course, putting everything together and building the patch.
I can't say for sure when we'll be finished, but I'm hoping the patch will be released by the end of next month.
|2012-06-01, 10:27
|Link #250
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
Higanbana patch has been released:
If anyone has feedback/comments/suggestions, or needs help with anything, please feel free to post here.
|2012-06-01, 16:26
|Link #255
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
Thanks for the support, everyone!
Here's a Mac version if anyone wants it:
EDIT: Sorry everyone, installation instructions were incorrect. I've re-uploaded the Mac version with correct instructions.
Last edited by Yirba; 2012-06-01 at 17:28.
|2012-06-02, 11:33
|Link #258
Spider Lily Translations
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: England
Age: 25
DaBackpack: That's a known issue present in the Japanese version of the game (and actually existed in Umineko Episode 8 too). We tried to fix it, but weren't able to figure out what was causing the sprites to obscure the backlog text and menu items.
If we figure out how to fix it, we'll be sure to update the patch, but I can't guarantee that will happen. Besides, it doesn't exactly cause huge issues.
|2012-06-02, 14:16
|Link #259
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: With the runaways
I'm a pretty slow reader as I like to savour most of what I do and am still reading the first story, but for now I have to praise the bgm, its placement feels slightly different than umineko, the mood it creates has a distance to it, a serenity that, coupled with the violence under question in the story, has a nice subtle intensity. Now to get their titles.
Spoiler for story 1:
And, as expected, I like the writing's approach of directly showing us how different characters rationalize their behavior, this leads to interesting takes on the human condition and selfhood.
|2012-06-02, 15:36
|Link #260
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
|Thread Tools


text:
FDG PET for Sarcoma
Dear OncoLink "Ask The Experts,"
Is pet imaging helpful for people with scarcoma? 8 weeks ago I had a large uterine leiomyoscarcoma tumor removed.
Peeyush Bhargava, MD, Chief Fellow in the Department of Nuclear Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, responds:
Although Medicare does not reimburse for PET imaging in patients with sarcoma, it has been proven to be a useful modality in several studies. It can be successfully used for differentiating benign from malignant tumors, especially in the setting of patients already treated for sarcoma, where the conventional anatomic imaging modalities (CT and MRI) cannot differentiate between residual disease and scar tissue.
PET with FDG gives metabolic information about the tissue, in the form of glucose utilization. The degree of FDG uptake in the tumor correlates well with the grade of tumor and patient survival (higher the SUV, higher is the tumor grade and poorer is patient survival). FDG PET is a great tool for detecting otherwise unsuspected metastasis, guiding biopsy to the most active part of the tumor and monitoring response to therapy.
Below are the images of a 56-year-old male with history of sarcoma of the small bowel. An FDG PET scan (image 3) was performed to rule out any recurrent disease (a year after the patients primary tumor was resected). It showed a focus of intense activity in the right lower quadrant of the abdomen (red arrow) consistent with recurrent disease. The CT scan done on the same day was negative and so was the repeat CT, 6 months later. An year after PET, the CT showed an ovoid mass in the right adnexa, suspicious for tumor recurrence. This was confirmed on MRI (image 1 and 2), which described the mass in the posterior right pelvis, with signal characteristics worrisome for tumor recurrence. This case illustrates the fact that metabolic changes (visualized early by FDG PET) occur much before anatomical changes (picked up later by CT and MRI) and their recognition can lead earlier diagnosis of recurrent cancer.


text:
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Feel free to introduce yourself in the New Members section (this is also a good place to experiment with some of the editing functions). We're sure you get a warm welcome from our members.
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Then, go on to explain what you have tried during you initial investigation.
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text:
Parent ResourcesPage address: http://www.mnsu.edu/studyabroad/parents.html
Study Abroad Links for Parents
We know that parents play an important role in the life-changing decision that our students make to study abroad during their career at MSU Mankato. Therefore, we want to give parents as much information as possible about our students' study abroad opportunities and their safety.
Please take some time to read the pages we have linked to below. There is a wealth of information on the internet for all of us to read and get to know. The following are some of the best sites available to help parents understand what study abroad means for your student and her or his future.
- The Parents' Study Abroad Handbook from the Center for Global Education
- Safety Abroad First Educational Travel Information
- Study Abroad Handbook from the Center for Global Education
- An interactive list of all U.S. Embassies around the world from the U.S. Department of State
- What does your student gain through study abroad? Benefits of Study Abroad
HTH Worldwide Health and Accident Insurance
The Minnesota State Colleges and Universities system (Minnesota State) has contracted with HTH Worldwide to provide affordable and comprehensive health and accident insurance for students on MSU programs. Information on coverage can be downloaded here and up-to-date health information, including doctors and hospitals can be accessed through the HTH Parents webpage.


text:
Newspaper Image 1 of Hāto Maunten senchineru : Japanese edition of Heart Mountain sentinel (Heart Mountain, Wyo.), February 12, 1944, (Japanese Edition, Japanese Section)
About this Newspaper | About this Item
About This Newspaper
- Title
- Hāto Maunten senchineru : Japanese edition of Heart Mountain sentinel (Heart Mountain, Wyo.), February 12, 1944, (Japanese Edition)
- Other Title
- Heart Mountain sentinel
- Contributor Names
- Library of Congress
- Place of Publication
- Heart Mountain, Wyo.
- Created / Published
- Heart Mountain, Wyo., February 12, 1944
- Subject Headings
- - Heart Mountain Relocation Center (Wyo.)--Newspapers
- - Japanese Americans--Wyoming--Evacuation and relocation, 1942-1945--Newspapers
- - Park County (Wyo.)--Newspapers
- - Cody (Wyo.)--Newspapers
- - Heart Mountain (Wyo.)--Newspapers
- - Heart Mountain Relocation Center (Wyo.)
- - Japanese Americans--Evacuation and relocation
- - Wyoming
- - Wyoming--Cody
- - Wyoming--Heart Mountain
- - Wyoming--Park County
- - United States--Wyoming--Park--Heart Mountain
- - United States--Wyoming--Park--Cody
- Genre
- Newspapers
- Notes
- - Weekly
- - Vol. 1, no. 1 (Oct. 24, 1942)-vol. IV, no. 31 (July 28, 1945).
- - Title from masthead.
- - Published for the Heart Mountain Relocation Center established by the War Relocation Authority for Civilians of Japanese ancestry.
- - Also available in digital format on the Library of Congress website.
- - Has supplement listing rules, regulations and procedures of the Relocation Center: Heart Mountain sentinel bulletin.
- - English ed.: Heart Mountain sentinel
- Medium
- 6 pages
- Call Number/Physical Location
- Newspaper
- Library of Congress Control Number
- sn93070119
- Language
- Japanese
- Online Format
- image
- online text
- Reel Numbers
- 00237288580
- Description
- Heart Mountain, Wyo.
- LCCN Permalink
- https://0-lccn.loc.gov.oasys.lib.oxy.edu/sn93070119
- Additional Metadata Formats
- MODSXML Record
- MARCXML Record
- IIIF Presentation Manifest
- Manifest (JSON/LD)
Part of
Rights & Access
The Library of Congress provides access to these materials for educational and research purposes and makes no warranty with regard to their use for other purposes. Responsibility for making an independent legal assessment of an item and securing any necessary permissions ultimately rests with the user. The written permission of the copyright owners and other rights holders (such as holders of publicity or privacy rights) is required for distribution, reproduction, or other use of protected items beyond that allowed by fair use or other statutory exemptions.
The Library of Congress is not aware of any U.S. copyright protection (see Title 17, U.S.C.), or any other restrictions on the materials digitized for the collection Japanese-American Internment Camp Newspapers.
Credit Line: Library of Congress, Serial and Government Publications Division.
For further information on permissions rights, please see our Legal Notices.
Cite This Item
Citations are generated automatically from bibliographic data as a convenience, and may not be complete or accurate.
Chicago citation style:
Hāto Maunten senchineru: Japanese edition of Heart Mountain sentinel. (Heart Mountain, WY), Feb. 12 1944. https://0-www.loc.gov.oasys.lib.oxy.edu/item/sn93070119/1944-02-12/ed-1/.
APA citation style:
(1944, February 12) Hāto Maunten senchineru: Japanese edition of Heart Mountain sentinel. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, https://0-www.loc.gov.oasys.lib.oxy.edu/item/sn93070119/1944-02-12/ed-1/.
MLA citation style:
Hāto Maunten senchineru: Japanese edition of Heart Mountain sentinel. (Heart Mountain, WY) 12 Feb. 1944, p. 1. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/item/sn93070119/1944-02-12/ed-1/.


text:
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Ground cinnamon is a widely used spice found in many desserts, chocolates, spicy candy, tea, hot cocoa, and liqueurs. It can also be used in pickling.
If you like apple pie, then you'll love these bite-sized diced cinnamon apples! Coated in cinnamon sugar, these dried apple pieces are a real treat.
Mini cinnamon chips are perfect as a topping on ice cream or yogurt. Substitute these cinnamon chips for chocolate chips in any recipe!
The finest and best cinnamon in the world comes from Sri Lanka. This "true" cinnamon is much softer than cassia cinnamon. Ceylon cinnamon sticks are perfect for adding to ciders and other hot beverages.
Ground Ceylon cinnamon has a lower volatile oil content giving it a more subtle flavor than the common Cassia variety. Perfect for cooking and baking.
These cinnamon apple wedges are one of the best things since apple pie and that's because they taste just like the apple pie Grandma made! We aren't kidding either.
All natural organic ground Cassia cinnamon. Perfect for cooking, baking, or any recipe that calls for classic cinnamon flavor.
Cinnamon sticks are a fragrant spice. Add these cassia cinnamon sticks to ciders, cocoa, coffee, or as a decoration in your kitchen.


text:
The prospect of replacing old parts with newly designed ones has great appeal, I'll grant you that. It's probably the easiest way to improve a car's performance. But that doesn't always make it the best way.
This may come as a surprise to some of you, but our bitchin' old cars were built from some bitchin' parts. The '39 Chevy at Thun Field Rod & Custom isn't any more exceptional than other cars of its era, but some of its pieces are still downright elegant. The steering column, for example, is a simple, slender stalk that just happens to perfectly mount a '39 Chevy steering wheel. Imagine that, an old car made from old parts. Novel, isn't it?
And some of those old parts bear keeping for reasons other than their looks. The pedal assembly is a hallmark of economical design in the sense that it also serves as the master cylinder and chassis mounting bracket. Any engineer would be proud to lay claim to such an economical design.
But wonderful as these parts are, they aren't without their shortcomings. Anyone who owns any brand car from the era will observe that their steering columns are integral to the steering box and cannot stand alone. And as slick as that pedal assembly is, its master cylinder doesn't isolate the front and rear circuits, nor can it accommodate any kind of assist mechanism. It isn't the end of the world, though; these parts can be made to work.
Marshall Woolery showed us how anyone with access to a lathe, welder, and a $30 bill can modify any steering column to operate any steering gear. And while the resourceful can modify a pedal assembly to operate a dual-circuit master cylinder, only the foolish would do so in light of the conversion Buffalo Enterprises offers. It's a bolt-on affair that costs hardly more than the raw parts and it operates the clutch linkage perfectly. Conversion to automatic transmission is incredibly simple: merely remove the third pedal.
An accomplished chassis builder, Buffalo thought his pedal assembly modifications through to a high degree. The original design relied exclusively on the oil trapped in its bushings and inevitably took out the shaft. Buffalo replaces it, cleans up the bushings, and to prevent any wear in the future equips each pedal with its own grease fitting. Beyond new lines, the only thing its installation requires is relocating the filler access panel. He offers it for Chevrolet cars from the '30s to 1954 in either manual or power assist.
Though not shown, the pedal kit modified for power assist bears particular mention. Frame-mounted pedal assemblies usually don't lend themselves to conventional vacuum-assist boosters; their large diameters interfere with the frame or hang down perilously low as we found out when a pavement seam at the top of a ramp to an underground parking lot caught the booster on our pal Damon Lee's '51 Plymouth wagon and tore it off the frame. By sheer coincidence the gate at the bottom was open but the implications of a free roll into a parked car weren't lost on us.
Instead, Buffalo employs hydraulically activated servos common to sports cars, vans, and big trucks. They derive their assist power from existing pumps in power steering–equipped cars and their higher working pressure makes them incredibly powerful for their size (they're not much wider than the master cylinder they actuate).
The coolest thing about these modifications is that they improve the performance and safety of our cars—something we need—yet preserve the old-timey parts that give our cars character. Ironic isn't it that in a world chock full of slick new parts sometimes the best ones for the job are the ones right under our noses.
Butt-Welding Tubes And Shafts
Naturally, adequate weld penetration is imperative to safety, but there's more to it than amperage and speed. In classes that I took at a welding school, instructor Carl Occhialini revealed a few techniques that bear repeating. He recommended grinding the tubes in a joint at a 45-degree angle to half the tube's thickness. This chamfer, as it's called, increases surface area and encourages penetration.
He also cautioned against tightly butting together critical joints even when they've been chamfered. Welded metal shrinks ever so slightly as it cools. The material in a joint will shrink consistently if penetrated fully by the weld; however, it's very difficult to ensure perfectly consistent penetration, especially on a small-diameter, heavy-wall tube. Any material not fully penetrated in a tightly butted joint will resist the welded area as it shrinks. The stress can take the weakest path of resistance, usually through the bead as a crack.
The solution is easy enough: leave a slight gap in the joint. This open root as it's called not only encourages penetration but it lets the welded area shrink on its own terms even if that penetration isn't absolutely complete. Occhialini suggested 1/16 inch for most automotive applications.
Woolery went another step. He machined the parts so one slips into the other. It makes the joint self align and uses the core of the stub as a backer for the weld. In other words, it becomes part of the joint. When using such a backer—whether a reduced part of a solid stub or a smaller rod or tube slipped into a hollow joint—Occhialini recommended increasing the root gap to about 1/8 inch to encourage the bead to penetrate the backer.
The third benefit of Woolery's way is a fail safe, sort of like wearing a belt and suspenders. Though he's a very proficient fabricator, Woolery admitted that he won't trust the integrity of such a critical part to a single joint. In this case he created a redundant joint by pinning the parts together through the reduced diameter of the stub and welding the pin in place.
There really is no such thing as too much caution when it comes to safety. Wellbeing is too great to trust to indifferent workmanship. If you aren't fully confident in your skills then prep the job and have a skilled fabricator weld it. Even if it doubles the cost of the job, assure yourself it's cheaper than the alternative—a failed steering shaft and a crash.


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This post originally appeared on the Friends of Milwaukee Junction blog.
Detroit is a city in flux.
Signs of decay and neglect are everywhere; a city built for millions now languishes with 700,000. A city rich in history and flush with gorgeous architecture constantly reminisces about herself. She looks in the mirror, remembering when she was young and full of vitality. The mirror is harsh. Time has been cruel. Reality sets in.
As with any grand old dame, however, there are so many stories. There is also that rare chance, that opportunity, that moment where she can shine one more time.
There are so many people here that are working to make Detroit beautiful again. There is a new group of people emerging out of the turmoil; those who want to be here. Those who choose to stay. Those who desire to see the grand old dame take center stage again. Those who remember, even if they weren't even born yet.
The Tower
On top of the 1927-built Dalgleish Cadillac building, there was an iconic water tower. It defined a bit of skyline in this area. The building, like so many others around it, fell in to decay and neglect when the area worsened, but those days have passed. Wayne State University is turning it into a 200,000 square foot, $93 million biomedical research center.
The plan, however, didn't (and couldn't) include the historic water tower.
Various groups raised their voices, but it was just words without weight. Would anyone... could anyone actually handle the logistics of saving the water tower?
We're talking about a steel structure of unknown structural integrity, weighing approximately 25,000 pounds, that sits 40 feet and more in the air. When faced with the reality of the scope of the project, the voices settled down. Groups that were interested in supporting the project dropped out. It didn't seem possible to save it.
It seemed destined for the scrap heap. Doubtless some enterprising scrapper would have a field day shredding the tower and selling it for pennies per pound, dragging it bit-by-bit in the back of a rusty old pickup truck to the wink-and-nod scrapyards that Detroit is home to so many of.
It seemed a sad and unfair end for such a beautiful structure. The cross-hatched steel supports and the craftsmanship of the dome are things that required a lot of manual labor hours back in the days when that was affordable in America. They don't make 'em like they used to.
The Move
Tom and Peggy Brennan from Detroit's Green Garage were contacted, and they came through just when things looked bleakest for the tower. They agreed to take the water tower, disassemble and move it, and ensconce what they could of it at their sustainable apartment development on Second, the El Moore.
In keeping with the Green Garage's sustainability and re-use ethics, they wanted to repurpose as much of the structure as they could, and keep it as intact as possible.
When deconstruction began, it was discovered that nearly a ton of pigeon droppings had been sitting in the bottom of the dome for who-knows-how-long... and pigeon droppings being acidic, the 1/4" steel of the bottom had been eaten away to the point where you could see sunlight through it. It would never hold water again, that was clear.
Moving the massive structure had its own logistical and engineering challenges. It couldn't be moved down Second because of something with the bridge over I-94. It had to come down Cass. It needed a police escort. It was very heavy.
The Wayne State Police graciously stepped up to the challenge, with very little advance notice, and provided the "Wide Load" truck with a path down Cass... during the middle of the school day at Wayne State. It made it. People marveled at the sight.
A New Place to Gather
Afterwards, in discussing the move, the Green Garage's Jason Peet told a group assembled for their weekly Friday community lunch, "It would never be used as an actual water tower again, but we had some ideas. We wanted it to anchor a community. We had an empty corner lot and now we have something. People have already started gathering under it and saying things like 'Meet me under the water tower'". It is now a destination. It is now a landmark.
A community can come together to achieve all kinds of amazing things; sometimes, that amazing thing is moving a big ol' chunky water tower just because a few people cared enough to save it.


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This navy blue wedding invitation is being packed with 8 cool design gallery. So, we hope this post will give you an extra ideas to make your own wedding invitation! Get more creative ideas below and get inspired!


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Agriculture will have significant market opportunities ahead if Congress enacts a national renewable energy (RES) policy, says a new study conducted by the University of Tennessee's (UT) Bio-Based Energy Analysis Group (BEAG) and funded by the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC).
UT researchers focused their economic study on four states: Colorado, Florida, Kansas and North Carolina. Details can be found at www.bipartisanpolicy.org and by clicking on the study title under the "Sponsored Research" box.
If an RES of 25 percent by 2025 were enacted, increases in gross receipts would range from more than $9,000 per farm in Florida to more than $43,000 per farm in Kansas. The size of the market for biomass for energy plants would vary by state and by level of the RES target.
The study's co-author Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, professor, UT's Institute of Agriculture, said that the "relationship between farm revenue and the stringency of an RES policy was positive, with more revenue generated under scenarios with stronger RES targets."
"A federal RES policy has the potential to create thousands of new jobs," added Burton English, professor at UT's Bio-Based Energy Analysis Group and also co-author of the study.
The 25x'25 Weekly Resource (www.25x25.org) explains that an RES policy requires utilities to provide a minimum percentage of energy from renewable sources. Such policies to promote renewable energy have been adopted by 27 states and the District of Columbia, generating growing momentum for a national-level program.
A coalition of agriculture, conservation, business and other interested parties, the 25x25 Alliance will release the results of an in-depth study next month focused on the impacts on all U.S. agriculture and forestry that would result under different climate change policy scenarios, including the House-passed American Clean Energy Security Act of 2009 (ACES). This study also was conducted by the UT's BEAG.
The 25x'25 study will look at the interplay between carbon incentives provided by climate change policy and input costs driven higher because of that policy in determining potential supply, price and geographic impacts of biomass feedstocks. The study will also report estimates of the net impact of the 25 x '25 goals upon biomass's contribution to total emissions, energy use and net carbon flux.


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Iconic Photos (or IP for people in the know) is a photography time capsule and as its name indicates, goes back to Iconic photos, which had a place in history. It is important I mention not all the pictures the blog visits or re-visits are blockbusters such as the one in the below screen capture.
With over 300 posts, you can only learn and get your curiosity bump going. On top of that, some photographers maintain email contact with the blog owner, and provide insights only them can share.


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Subject tested positive for caffeine
Last Saturday morning, I boarded a GMC Denali with Free Press Managing Editor Bryan Hanks and headed to New Jersey. Our mission: Retrieve 10 cases of CDs, a guitar, an amp, go to a Yankees game � and try to avoid murdering one another in a Denny�s parking lot.
I�ve got several musical irons in the fire, but the main gig is still Third Of Never � a New Jersey-based endeavor. Having just wrapped up our second album (details available at www.thirdofnever.com), it was time to pick up the discs from the pressing plant as the label wanted the discs in a week.
While up there, I wanted to bring home a guitar and an amplifier to use in a local endeavor, and Hanks wanted to hook up with his old buddy and former Free Presser Drew Loftis for a Yankees game.
To accomplish these tasks, we determined it would require the rental of a vehicle. Being a seasoned deal-maker, Hanks jumped at the opportunity to display his scheisterly prowess. After all, I once witnessed this man spend 40 minutes talking a Girl Scout down to $1.25 on a box of Thin Mints, so I knew he�d show up to play.
After a bit of research we huddled around his computer to bask in the glow of the deal he�d put together. According to the terms of the rental agreement, we could save $10 on the additional driver fee if he listed me as his �domestic partner.� To me, $10 is $10 so I told him to put us down as a couple and I�d go register at Belk just to make it look authentic, but Mr. Ethical wussed out.
The rental agreement also stipulated that if the car was driven outside of North or South Carolina, there would be an additional fee. I leapt into action and showed Hanks that a fictional route to Asheville, Charlotte, Columbia, Charleston and back would be about the same mileage as our real trip to New Jersey and back. This little white lie would save $80, which, to anyone making all or even part of their living writing for a newspaper, equals (before taxes) roughly a month�s salary.
Hanks never really got on board with my idea to re-stage the Lufthansa heist of �78. After reading about the GPS devices these paranoid, non-trusting car rental companies install in all their vehicles, I gave up as well. All that being said, when Hanks showed up at my house with a nicer car than we�d signed up for at a smaller price, I realized I was a mere mortal traveling with a bargain hunting deity.
Hanks showed up at my compound at 9 a.m. sporting a Ralph Sampson muumuu and a Washington Redskins cap. He already had his iPhone plugged into the car stereo, so I shuddered a bit wondering what infernal Drake ditty was headed our way.
To my credit, I was on my best behavior, even though I really wanted to pummel the L.L. Cool J track coming out of the speakers with my James Brown box set. Eventually, Hanks requested to hear a podcast from my iPod and for some reason, we couldn�t find his iPhone for the rest of the trip.
I have no idea how it ended up under my seat, duct taped to a spring.
Once on the road, Hanks decided to sync his phone up to the vehicle�s Bluetooth system. To me, Bluetooth is what you get after eating too many Smurf sammiches, but apparently, it�s a service that allows you to talk on the phone without having to use the phone. Once it was hooked up, Hanks was able to talk to Siri � the woman who lives in his phone. Here�s an excerpt from one of their conversations;
Hanks: Where is the nearest Starbucks?
Siri: Redd Foxx was born in St. Louis in 1922.
Hanks: No, Siri, where is the nearest Starbucks?
Siri: �Buck Rogers� was first published by Amazing Stories in 1928.
Hanks: NO! You stupid (censored)! I�m trying to find a Starbucks!
Siri: You ain�t gonna come up in here talking to me like that. I make my own money.
A few seconds later, a Virginia State Trooper pulled us over; Siri apparently reported Hanks for making a threatening phone call. Thankfully, the trooper was a University of Virginia grad; after seeing Hanks� Ralph Sampson muumuu, he let him off with a warning.
Eventually, Hanks found his Starbucks. When he pulled into the parking lot, I informed him that I�ve never set foot in a Starbucks and had no intention to do so. My lovely wife had packed a small cooler for me that was packed with ice and plenty of fruit and carbonated refreshment.
I pointed out that if any of my dearly departed ancestors who�d gone through the Depression got wind of me paying $8 for a cup of bean water, they would rise from their graves to smite us both.
Hanks pleaded for me to go in, eventually offering to pay for whatever I ordered. Apparently he really wanted me to experience Starbucks, so I ordered a cup of iced coffee, which came to $2. Hanks ordered a triple venti caffeine-free, no foam, extra caramel, with whipped caramel macchiato, a sliver of soap used by the Dalai Lama, three pumps basil, one pump Mountain Dew, an inch of non-fat milk, with a strand of Lindsey Lohan�s mustache hair on the side, which cost $36.
I did a little research, and for the amount of money spent on our two cups of coffee, you could buy a barrel of Sanka or the Charlotte Hornets.
Once we made it to New Jersey Saturday afternoon, my business went smoothly and we motored over to the home of Loftis, who, after securing his valuables, graciously agreed to let us crash in his basement.
On Sunday, Hanks and Loftis took in a Yankees game while I opted to lay on the couch in a cool, dark basement and do absolutely nothing � and it was glorious.
On our way home, we hit some road construction in Richmond at 3 a.m., moving only about 1 foot per minute for 45 minutes. When the logjam finally broke, I put the hammer down, intent on making it to my bed before sunrise.
At 5 a.m., after an Iliad-like journey that spanned hundreds of miles, gallons of soda and two Kasabian albums, I made it back home. Hanks helped me stack my gear on a couch in my office and I bid him adieu.
I tippy-toed into the house with the intention of becoming one with my Serta mattress, only to discover Tax Deduction No. 1 was in my spot. The Wife told me TD No. 1 woke up with a stomach issue about an hour earlier, but with the storm now passed couldn�t get back to sleep in her own bed.
Not having the strength to slam the bedroom door on my head repeatedly, I walked down to TD No. 1�s room and attempted to catch some sleep in her empty bed. This would have been fine if not for the fact that everything from my knees down hung off the end of the mattress. Dikembe Mutombo could use this mattress as a napkin.
My last option was the ancient couch in my outside office. It�s a durable piece of furniture that allegedly once sat in the living room of Mussolini�s summer house in Rome.
In all my agony, I took all the stuff I�d just stacked on the couch and piled it on the floor. I collapsed into a drooling, snoring heap and awoke two hours later to take TD No. 2 to preschool. I took one step away from the couch and tripped over four boxes I�d moved the night before. Thankfully, the guitar amp I fell face-first onto broke my fall.
Having been up for 24 hours straight with only two hours of sleep didn�t affect me all that much, although my wife was perplexed when a woman from the post office called to say a disoriented man had just dropped off his daughter thinking it was a day care. Thankfully, they gently placed her in our mailbox with the Piggly Wiggly circular that afternoon.
Jon Dawson�s columns appear every Tuesday and Thursday in The Free Press. Contact Jon at 252-559-1092 or firstname.lastname@example.com. Purchase books, music and antique WWII furniture at jondawson.com.


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ComplyRight creates practical products and services to help small businesses complete essential HR and tax reporting tasks in an efficient and legally sound manner. From hiring to firing, to mandatory employee postings, to 1099 and W-2 processing, our solutions are guaranteed to be 100% compliant with federal and state (and in some cases, local) employment laws. Our direct brands include HRdirectapps.com (simple and smart online HR software), PosterTracker.com (complete range of ComplyRight posting solutions), efile4biz.com (online 1099, W-2 and ACA form processing), and HRdirect.com (leading provider of ComplyRight HR products).
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Hiring Hazards- How to Avoid the 7 Most Common Legal Landmines
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ELK CREEK –– It looked like old times Aug. 28 at Elk Creek Dragway with the bleachers packed and the safety standing area filled up from starting line to finish line.
The reason for the full house was the Charlie Overfelt Nostalgia Show, with more than three dozen nostalgia cars from New Jersey to Daytona Beach on hand for the big event. In the Slingshot Dragster finals, Mike DiMaggio of Kill Devil Hills, N.C. ran a 5.16 e.t. at 121 mph to top Tommy Jackson of Montvale, N.C., who posted a 5.17 e.t. at 122 mph.
Dickie Ratliff of Radford drove his 1948 Fiat to the win in the Nostalgia Cars class with a 5.88 e.t. at 108 mph. Charlie Overfelt of Roanoke was the runner-up in a 1923 T-Roadster with a 5.95 e.t. at 112 mph.
In the Flag Start class, Dustin Stamper steered his 1935 Chevy to the win over Travis Hash and his 1972 Nova.
The action also included bracket racing in all regular classes. In the Super Pro Eliminator finals, Bobby Hash of Independence took the win with a 5.32 e.t. at 115 mph in a Camaro. Taking the runner-up position was Woody Pack, also of Independence, whose Mustang ran a 5.69 e.t. at 112 mph.
Tom Baker of Bluefield, W.Va. was the winner of the Footbrake class, driving his Chevy Nova to a 7.57 e.t. at 82 mph. Robert Benge, Jr., of Mt. Airy was the class runner-up in a Chevy Monza, recording a 6.36 e.t. at 93 mph.
In the D.O.T. class, Robbie Copenhaver took the win with a 9.13 e.t. at 70 mph in a Chevelle. Robert Neal of Hico, W.Va. was the runner-up in a Pontiac with a 7.05 e.t. at 88 mph.
Timothy Jones of Max Meadows took the Motorcycle class win with a 5.33 e.t. at 116 mph. Wes Parsons of Independence was the runner-up, riding to a 6.35 e.t. at 99 mph.
Dane Shinault of Hillsville took the Junior Dragster win with a 9.07 e.t. at 66 mph. Runner-up in the class was Jason Halsey of Independence, recording a 9.22 e.t. at 60 mph.
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Research Track Instructions
Please Note: The submission deadline has passed, papers are no longer being accepted
The following provides general instructions for authors who will be submitting academic papers and/or proposals that will be included in the ACM Proceedings, unless otherwise noted.
All proposals must be submitted online by 11:59 PM Pago Pago Time, SST on October 14, 2014. Due to the international nature of LAK, we will be utilizing American Samoa, Pago Pago Time, to globally standardize the deadline. Click here to find the time in your local time zone. Please check this page regularly for additional updates and details or follow the conference @lak15marist to get real-time updates. Any questions, please contact email@example.com.
Table of Contents
1. Submission Types And Format
4. Topics
The conference accepts the following type of submissions:
- Full papers: 10 pages.
- Short papers: 5 pages.
- Panel proposals: 4 pages plus 2 separated pages with information about the confirmed panelists.
- Workshop proposals: 2 pages.
- Tutorial proposals: 2 pages (will not be included in the proceedings).
- Tool demonstrations: 2 pages.
- Posters: 2 pages.
All documents must follow the ACM Proceedings Format. Please check the conference website for detailed author instructions for each type of submission. Submissions will be received and processed with EasyChair. The conference proceedings will include all accepted conference submissions except tutorial proposals, workshop papers and practitioner presentations (see note below).
The conference will also include a Doctoral Consortium, please visit the Doctoral Consortium Instructions for details.
The three full papers that obtain the highest scores from the reviewers will be "nominees for the best paper award". A committee composed by the program chairs of the current and past edition of the conference will choose the "best paper award" among the nominees. Both the nominees and the best paper award will be reflected in the proceedings.
- 14 October 2014: Deadline for full/short papers, panel proposals, workshop proposals, tutorial proposals, demonstrations and posters (no extension will be considered).
- 4 November 2014: Notification of acceptance for workshop and tutorial proposals.
- 9 December 2014: Notification of acceptance for full/short papers, panel proposals, demonstrations and posters.
- 1 February 2015: Final version of accepted papers due.
- 16-20 March 2015: Conference.
LAK 2015 is seeking contributions in a wide variety of topics. We invite papers related to research, theory and practice – focusing on the growth of the field and community and the continuous improvement of learning from the usage and implementation of important data and analytical tools.
The following keywords will be used to classify submissions, and convey the breadth of topics covered.
Analytic Approaches, Methods, and Tools for sensemaking in learning analytics, including: algorithms, architectures, behavior modeling, case studies, clustering, computational linguistics, concept mapping, crowdsourcing, data integration, data mining, data sharing, research about design, discourse analysis, educational research methods, ethnography, ethnomethodology, evaluation methods, frameworks, grounded theory, information visualization, interfaces for learning analytics, knowledge representation, machine learning, natural language processing, predictive analytics, recommendation engines, semantic web, sequential analysis, social network analysis, social network visualization, statistical analysis, surveys, text mining, visual learning analytics
Theories and Theoretical Concepts for understanding learning, including: activity theory, actor-network theory, affordances, learning sciences, conceptual models of learning enabled by analytics, distributed cognition, networked individualism, reflective learning, situated learning, social capital, social learning, sociocultural theory, structuration theory, symbolic interactionism
Measures of Learning, Change and Success, including: accreditation, affect, emotions, and flow, analytic patterns, attendance and retention (as predictors of learning), attention, attitudes, collaboration and cooperation, community structure, comprehension/understanding, conceptual change, degree of competence, educational performance, expectations, learner behavior modeling, learning dispositions, metacognition, misconceptions, motivation, off-task behavior, organizational dynamics, participation, satisfaction, social dynamics
Learning Activities, Applications, and Interventions: adaptation, analytic tools for learners, argumentation, assessment, awareness, big data applications and opportunities, classroom orchestration, collaborative learning, course management systems, decision-support systems for learning, informing policy, instructor support, intelligent tutoring systems, interventions based on analytics, knowledge work, language learning, learning communities, learning environments enhanced with analytics, learning how to learn, lifelong learning, management of learning interventions or settings, mentoring, open data and data access for learners, pedagogical adjustment/intervention, personalization, predicting failure, professional development, quantified self, reflection, scaffolding and scripting, self-management of learning, student monitoring, teacher analytics, teaching learning analytics
Data sources: blogging, chats, haptic media & tangible computing, microblogging (twitter), mobile platforms, wearable computing, immersive learning environments, tutors, intelligent agents, online discussion forums, shared workspaces, social networking media, video, whiteboards, wikis, and face-to-face interaction supported by technology
These topics can be studied in a variety of learning scenarios whether: formal or informal; face-to-face, blended, or online settings. Proposals are welcome from any various application domains be it primary and secondary schools, higher education, corporate workplace or learning in governmental, military, health or commercial situations. Focus may be on distance or graduate education, mobile and ubiquitous learning, online communities, to name a few.
1. Go to the LAK15 EasyChair Submission system here: www.easychair.org/conferences/?conf=lak15
2. All documents must follow the ACM Proceedings Format
Use a full paper to share substantial conceptual, technical and empirical contributions.
Use a short paper to share preliminary conceptual, technical and empirical contributions, or substantial contributions that can be reported briefly. Short papers can also share a design concept or tool that addresses a challenge of interest to interface designers, system architects and programmers.
Panels provide the chance for delegates to hear a range of speakers address a topical issue, e.g. diverse approaches to a problem, or a debate a hot topic. Submit up to 4 pages in the conference paper format suitable for publication in the proceedings, including an introduction to the nature and importance of the issue to be addressed and panelists' position statements. Submit 2 additional pages (not to be published in the proceedings) with the names and qualifications of confirmed panelists and discussants and a summary of how your panel format will ensure that there is interaction between panelists rather than consisting of a collection of disconnected talks.
Workshops (16-17 March, 2015) provide the opportunity to explore learning theory, analytics, methods and tools in depth. Workshops should be designed to take advantage of the interactivity afforded by this format, and should not consist merely of a day of talks. They may include for example, experience sharing and brainstorming, interactive demonstrations, data analysis by multiple analysts, problem solving sessions, and a few short and/or enlightening presentations. The length of the workshop sessions can range from a half to a full day (consisting of two to four 1.5 hour blocks between breaks). Please outline the significance of the topic, the workshop format, and your track record.
Tutorials (also 16-17 March, 2015) provide the chance to take participants deep into a specific tool or technique in which you are experienced, or an introduction to a topic/class of tools. The time could range from a 1.5 hour session to a full day (consisting of two to four 1.5 hour blocks between breaks).
Use a tool demonstration to describe a software you want to demonstrate, and the expected interactions with conference participants. Demonstrators should be prepared to interact with several conference participants at a time in an interactive and not excessively scripted manner.
Posters are suitable for describing late-breaking results or for engaging conference participants in discussion of preliminary ideas or findings.
Society for Learning Analytics Research (SoLAR) - http://www.solaresearch.org
Program Committee


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Hello Dr. Bob, I hope you are doing well. I continue to visit the forum and see the pain so many people are dwelling in as they try to decipher their HIV status and risk. Today, after reading a post that depicted you as an "inconsistent" and "judgmental" villain, I became both irate and sad. I became irate because someone actually had the audacity to criticize your good deeds and heartfelt purpose in life, to help others through instruction and wit about HIV. I also became sad because I understand the mental chaos this person must be in...so much fear and anger that IT could happen to him, because of course, he did put himself in that situation, as did most of us who practiced unsafe sex, of whatever kind or statistical risk. However, I also became hopeful because even in his distress and words that smelled like gunpowder, you still acknowledged him and his worries and even welcomed him back to the forum with a simple apology because you understand the source of the fear and the anger. I wrote to you before as I trembled like a leaf because I dindn't trust the results of my tests(cd8 suppressor out of range and so on) You reassured me that I WAS OK. Of course, I DID get tested again with a rapid finger prick test and it was negative 11.5 months later. My fear is that I don't want to infect anyone in the future or in case I want to have kids that I wont contaminate anyone. That is stuff I have to deal with in the context of therapy, I know, but it is a daily struggle for me to think that I could hurt someone. I never told you the context of my exposure but if you want to I will relate it to you one day. It was a very traumatic event that won't soon vanish from my memory. In any event, I dont want to make this about me. i just wrote to thank you for your kindness (wrapped up in scientific splendor) and to remind you that the love and support you pour out every day is indeed appreciated by many of us out here. I concur with the readers of the forum that it would be a great pleasure to meet you and furthermore, to embrace you. God knows that I searched for answers everywhere and it all lead me here. Good thing.
love you lots and keep in touch
Thanks for your supportive comments!
I'm delighted you are now in therapy and working toward accepting the reality of your HIV-negative status. Your repeat test at 11.5 months was predictably negative and corroborates what we already knew: You are HIV negative!
Be well! Stay well! Remember, HIV is not your problem. No way. No how.
Dr. Bob
This is more a general comment (Dr. BOB'S RESPONSE IS INADEQUATE AND CONTRDICTORY) Aug 11, 2009
Hi I recently wrote to Dr. Bob about a question about bareback topping situation to which his response was rather inadequate. Further he provided me with information that he himself has contradicted before. He told me it only takes one bareback exposure to get HIV whereas in a similar question asked previously he stated the risk is 6.5 percent per 10000 exposures. I am not sure of what's going on.
When people write to you, you must understand their state of mind. Yes we must all have protected sex but everyone is fallible. Dr. Bob's tone in his response to my question had scathing undertones. Of course, as gay men, we all should ideally be safe. But we all make mistakes. And Dr. Bob does sound very judgmental and morally self-righteous for whatever reasons.
Anyway, I hope you take what i am saying in your stride and consider your thoughts before responding in your sarcastic and witty manner.
Response from Dr. Frascino
You may feel that my response was "inadequate" and "contradictory;" however, I can assure you it was indeed factual and completely consistent with everything I've ever written on this site or elsewhere! I've reposted your question and my response below.
First off I commented on my disappointment that a health care professional (nurse) would be so cavalier about having unsafe sex. I continue to be disappointed. I also pointed out why being told by a partner that their HIV status is negative is not reliable. I quoted a well-documented statistical fact about the number of HIV-infected Americans who do not know they are infected. Consequently these HIV-positive folks could in all sincerity advise sexual partners that to the best of their knowledge that they are not HIV infected. In reality these untreated folks are often highly contagious because they have very high HIV plasma viral loads.
I then accurately responded to your specific question pertaining to the "minimum number" of bareback exposures that would constitute a substantial HIV-transmission risk. The answer is one. HIV transmission can occur with a single exposure! That is a fact, whether you want to believe it or not. You misquoted the statistical estimate in your post! It is not 6.5 "percent" per 10,000 exposures! The correct statistic is "6.5 per 10,000 exposures!" It's a CDC estimate of the per-episode statistical risk of acquiring HIV from unprotected insertive anal sex with a partner confirmed to be HIV positive. This is a population statistic that provides relative risk compared to other sexual activities. It does not mean that you can play Brokeback Mountain Commando Rambo 9993.5 times before you would contract HIV! (See below for a more detailed description of these statistical estimates.) If you have difficulty believing these statistics I suggest you contact the CDC!
I stand by my response! A single barebacking incident with an HIV-positive partner is indeed risky business! Perhaps an analogy would help. How many lottery tickets does it take to win the lottery? Yep, only one. Even if you buy 10 tickets, each individual ticket still has the same identical statistical chance of winning and it only takes one ticket to win.
I'll accept that by design some of my responses may be written in a "witty" or even "sarcastic" manner. However, I will not accept that my responses are either "inadequate" or "contradictory." Also, if you feel my responses are "judgmental" or "morally self-righteous," all I can say is that either you have never accurately read anything I have written or that you are living in some altered state of reality.
If, after reflection, you choose to write back, I'd suggest you begin with an apology.
Dr. Bob
HIV Risk for bareback topping Aug 10, 2009
I recently started dating a guy who's a nurse. I met him online. Things were going well until I saw his sex ads on Craigslist and I got suspicious. He told me he is HIV negative and disease free. He recently had an incident at work where blood got squirted into his eyes and he got tested again. He claimed he was negative. Based on that we engaged in unprotected anal sex 4-5 times. I was the insertive partner. I am also uncircumcized but my foreskin is completely pulled back. I've confronted him about his ads and asked him about his HIV status and he insists he is negative. Yet I feel horrible for having unprotected sex with him. I am getting tested next week. But my question is : Is there a minimum number of exposures through bareback topping that the HIV risk becomes substantial?
I've stopped seeing this guy completely.
Response from Dr. Frascino
A barebacking nurse on Craig's List? That's worrisome. Health care professionals certainly should know better! Even if a dude strapped a lie detector to his Mr. Happy, I still wouldn't believe his report of his HIV negative status. Remember, one fifth of the over one million HIVers in the U.S. today have no idea they are "positive charged," so to speak.
Responding to your specific question:
"Is there a minimum number of exposures through bareback topping that the HIV risk becomes substantial?!
The answer is a definitive yes! And that minimum number is exactly one!
Dr. Bob
Confused in Fort Worth (HIV STATISTICS, 2009)(HIV STATISTICS, 2009) May 8, 2009
Hey there Doctor Frascino, Been on your site over the years and am still a bit confused and concerned, even after reading through the archives. Can you try to clarify something for me. I have avoided sex over the years due to my fears but as I age, I continue to imagine how nice it would be to be in a loving relationship. I decided to experience a little more with a guy who has not really been willing to tell much about his background or previous sexual activity. But I wanted to see how it felt to be close to him and after reading though the archive as to what was fairly safe, I rimmed him and also gave him oral sex on 2 occasions. I had not brushed my teeth in a few hours, did taste a small amount of pre-cum. I know that the rimming is supposed to be safe. But I am confused about what I've read on the site about giving oral sex having a 1 in 10,000 chance of being infected with hiv. Does that mean that: Out of every 10,000 times people in the world give oral sex, one of them is infected with hiv, or Does that mean that if you personally gave 10,000 people oral sex, you would statisticly be infected 1 by one of them? The second way does make giving oral sex seem fairly safe. And the first way seems like the whole world would die before long. I was still apprehensive afterward and would like to become more comfortable with it. Thanks for reading.
Response from Dr. Frascino
The HIV-risk statistics I quote are merely statistical estimates that give relative risk. They are not meant to be applied to a specific coupling to gage actual risk. Rather they help advise someone of the relative risk of one type of activity compared to another. See below.
Dr. Bob
hiv risk ratio (HIV STATISTICS, 2009) Mar 8, 2009
Doctor, i simply can't buy the ratio stat you mention, such as "the estimated per-act risk for acquiring HIV for unprotected receptive anal sex with a partner confirmed to be HIV positive is 50 per 10,000".
First off... why not just say 1 in 200? Isn't that the same ratio as 50 in a 10,000?
2ndly... that seems outrageous. You mean to tell me that for the average person to get hiv, they have to have sex with a poz person 200 times?!
I've not had 10 at-risk encounters with poz OR neg people, yet i came down with it. Might i have been unlucky? Sure,... but EVERY poz person i've ever spoken to has nailed down the one chance encounter they had which they believe infected them.... Basically, it was a 1/1 ratio. Unsafe sex? one time? check, hiv.
My belief is that if one comes into direct contact with the virus that triggers HIV antibody tests, they WILL contract that virus on that day, for sure.
Response from Dr. Frascino
- 50 per 10,000 is the same as 5 per 1,000 or 1 per 200. The reason I use the 10,000 exposures denominator is it helps people put their exposure in context with the other potential HIV risks I frequently quote in this forum. The CDC published these estimated per-exposure risk statistics with a common denominator of 10,000 specifically for this purpose. It allows folks who don't understand statistics or fractions to see that one type of activity, say receptive anal sex, is riskier than other type of activity, say receptive vaginal sex. OK?
The reasons the numbers seem "outrageous" to you is mostly related to your incomplete understanding of estimated-risk statistics for large populations. You comment "You mean to tell me that for the average person to get HIV, he has to have sex with a poz person 250 times!" reflects your inaccurate understanding. Neither I nor the statistics are telling you anything of the sort! (See below.)
Were you unlucky to contract HIV with only a few exposures? Yes, you were. However, it's extremely important to note that HIV can be acquired on a very first exposure.
As for your assumption, "unsafe sex, one time equals HIV infected," no, that is not reality. Just peruse the archives for at least a gazillion personal testimonials that disprove your hypothesis. I should also point out we have over a quarter century of epidemiological scientific study of exactly how and how often HIV is transmitted/acquired.
I'll repost below information about how to interpret HIV statistics and also a testimonial of someone who did acquire the virus with a single unprotected heterosexual exposure.
Dr. Bob
Interpreting HIV and testing statistics (HIV STATISTICS) Oct 10, 2008
Greetings. I recently tested HIV+ on a rapid blood test, and am awaiting Western Blot results. Needless to say, I'm extremely worried, almost resigned. I've been reading about testing statistics and through questions on this forum, and have a few questions.
Firstly, I notice that a lot of people have questions about indeterminate results, or results on separate tests that bring back different results. I notice that in some answers, unless tests are conclusively negative or positive, that diagnosis can include risk assessment.
Well, I can pinpoint my exposure, as I had only one sexual encounter within the window period. The man I was with was rubbing and probing around my anus without a condom, inserted about a quarter of the way in, and then I stopped him and said he needed to use a condom, and we didn't even have oral sex. So, this might be seen as risky as unprotected anal receptive sex, as I was exposed to his precum, but it did not last long, he did not insert all the way, and did not ejaculate in me. This is the closest I've had to unsafe sex in years, and at the time, considered it foreplay and didn't worry. Two weeks later, I had classic sero-conversion sickness for 5 days, and five weeks after the exposure, tested preliminary positive.
Now, I am almost sadly sure that this means I am HIV+, just because the timing of the positive result is too perfect. However, the day I got sick was the same day that almost everyone I knew felt feverish and achy due to a sudden drop in temperature (perhaps a "bug" that was going around).
As I've read, ELISA tests are 99.9% sensitive and 99.8% specific, which means there's only a 3 in 1000 chance that I got a false positive. But then I read about prevalence at the testing site (i.e. I went to a supposedly low prevalence site, so let's say there will be 20 true positives and 3 false positives out of 1000 tests).
And of course, all I've been inundated with in education, HIV campaigns, and even on this site, is that in the risk assessment of my particular case, since I have not had unprotected sex otherwise . . . that I might be considered in a lower risk group. I've read over and over that transmission rates of receptive anal unprotected sex are about 1% (i.e. even if you're having risky sex it might take multiple exposures).
So I'm confounded by the fact that I may have gotten HIV by a single half-assed (literally) exposure, despite making such a "successful" effort to stay away from the drug scene, be very healthy, very direct and open in my communication with sexual partners, and vigilant about safe sex.
Obviously, I want to have hope, despite the statistics. I've read about quite a few false positive stories here, and I secretly want to hear the rapid blood test might be unreliable, that I might even have mono or just had a regular flu. I'm not finding my help on the web as I've found mostly outdated articles or answers that are too general. So, if you would be so kind, I have some specific questions.
Would you say that the .3% false positive ELISA rate is accurate? If so, does this statistic mean that the .3% includes human error and all the possible complications like Epstein Barr and pregnancy or a recent immune system event that can cause a false positive, or does it mean that on top of that, the test itself, if performed perfectly, has a .3% fail rate?
When it is said that the estimated rate of transmission via unprotected receptive anal sex is 1%, does this mean that if you are actually exposed to HIV, you will get it 1 out of 100 times; or does it mean that real exposure actually doesn't occur 99 out these 100 times? (In addition, can an actual positive status be result of "cumulative" exposure?) If it's the former, as I think we are lead to believe when reading statistics, then wouldn't my luck just be truly awful and almost defy the statistics?
- I know that I just must wait for my Western Blot confirmation results. But in that you've given your assessment based on risk factors, and with your knowledge of testing -- would you say I have any reason to hope that my preliminary test is a false positive?
Response from Dr. Frascino
I'll respond to your three specific questions first:
The sensitivity and specificity of a test assume the test is performed properly and free from confounding variables.
The estimated statistical risk assumes unprotected sex with a partner confirmed to be HIV positive. Please note, however, these general population estimated-risk statistics are useful in assessing relative risk and cannot be applied to a single specific encounter. (See below.)
Yes, there is a distinct possibility your initial rapid test was falsely reactive. Remember that a reactive (positive) rapid test is only considered to be "preliminarily" positive. If it is followed by a negative Western Blot, the two tests together are considered a "negative HIV test."
Your HIV-transmission risk was low, but not completely nonexistent. Write back with your Western Blot results. We are all rooting for you! However, no matter what the outcome, I'm here if you need me, OK?
Good luck.
Dr. Bob
Are you following what goes on in Mexico? (HIV STATISTICS) Aug 11, 2008
Dr. Bob
In AIDS conference in Mexico they said that the rates of transmission that the CDC quotes could be way off and actually be much higher than stated. They said some instances of Vaginal sex could be as low as 1 in 10 exposures and anal sex 1 in 3 exposures. I have always followed your advise and use a condom for both these acts( wife poz)but I am wondering if this were to be true could getting oral maybe turn into the 1 in a 1000. We never use condom when I get oral from her and really would just love to here your expert opinion on this.I know you said getting oral is a extremely low risk(theoretical under extenuating circumstances) but want to make sure this would not make you change your mind or at least think twice.(meaning do you think it could also be riskier than everyone has thought)THANKS, Here is the article
Response from Dr. Frascino
Not only am I following what's going on in Mexico City, I'm actually in Mexico City participating in the conference! There have been over 5,000 presentations, including the one you reference. The take-home message of this study of HIV infectivity is that population based HIV statistical estimates can not be applied as actual risk to one specific sexual action. I've made this point many times in the forum (see below). The presentation from the group at North Carolina focused on the effect of co-factors that can affect the risk of heterosexual HIV transmission (circumcision, genital ulcer disease, anal rather than vaginal sex and other biological cofactors). I'll reprint the article you reference below.
Dr. Bob
Condom broke exposing my turkey now i'm worried sick (HIV STATISTICS) Nov 26, 2007
Hello Doc. Hopefully you can help me with my fears. Eight days ago I had protected anal sex with another gay male of unknown HIV status. I was the top. After completion, which lasted less than five minutes, I pulled out and noticed the condom i was wearing had broke. I immediately went into a panic. I checked my penis and there was no sign of blood or anything else. I do not know at what point the condom broke. As the top, how much should I be worried? What are the chances that I might have contracted HIV, if indeed this person is positive and that's an assumption. Please help. I'm stressing out here and scared to death and depressed. What are your thoughts? Should I be worried? Thanks.
Response from Dr. Frascino
So it appears the "turkey" got exposed while you were doing the "stuffing!"
The estimated per-act risk for acquisition of HIV from unprotected (or broken-condom) insertive anal sex with a partner confirmed to be positive is 6.5 per 10,000 exposures. However, please note these are merely estimated risk statistics and cannot be applied as an actual statistical risk for your particular situation. (See below.)
Should you be worried? No, not excessively. But you should get a rapid HIV test at the three-month mark, OK?
Good luck.
Dr. Bob
HIV STATISTICS Sep 13, 2007
Ive written to you many times over the past 3 years and youve answered several of my questions. Thank you! What I really need to know now is how accurate are your statistics about oral and anal sex. Is it really 1 per 10,000 for oral and 50 per 10,000 for anal? Im trying to explain to my negative partner exactly what our specific risk is. Neither one of us are math whiz-kids but this seems reasonably straight forward. He could expect to become infected once for every 10,000 blowjobs. Right?
Thanks Dr. Bob
Response from Dr. Frascino
"He could expect to become infected once for every 10,000 blowjobs. Right?"??? Well actually no, that would be a wrong conclusion to draw from those statistics!!! I've covered this topic numerous times in the past, but I know HIV statistics can be a confusing topic. So even though this questions has now become a QTND (question that never dies) with an ATNC (Answer that never changes), I'll try to explain the limitations of these statistics once again.
The statistics I quoted are "estimated per-act risk statistics for acquisition of HIV by various exposure routes" published in a CDC document. These statistics were generated by combining a variety of published reports and did not control for many different potential variables that occur in different populations and among individuals. In other words, these statistics are primarily useful in determining relative risk, but not specific risk or actual risk for any individual. The reason for this is that any specific sexual coupling has a wide variety of variables to take into consideration when attempting to quantify specific HIV-transmission risk. These would include both viral factors, such as viral strain and viral load, as well as host factors, such as immune integrity, concurrent illnesses, circumcised/uncircumcised, genetic susceptibility, etc. Add to this nonspecific factors/extenuating circumstances, such as roughness of the encounter possibly causing trauma to mucous membranes, menstruation, etc., and perhaps you will begin to see the difficulty in providing transmission-risk statistics for any specific coupling. Also I should point out we cannot conduct prospective controlled epidemiological studies to try to account for theses variables, as that would be unethical. There are some published reports that address risk associated with specific sexual practices that control for some variables, but these studies usually have relatively small sample sizes and again are not applicable to everyone's specific situation. Another reference that I quote frequently is http://hivinsite.ucsf.edu/InSite?page=kb-07-02-02 (SAFER SEX METHODS). If you review the specific epidemiologic studies in this well referenced report, you'll get a better understanding of the complexity involved in these issues.
So why do I quote the statistics that I do? Good question! The main reason is that I am constantly barraged by anxious wrecks desperately trying to quantify their risk. I use the CDC statistics, because CDC is a very conservative organization and the numbers they generated are an amalgamation of many studies. They also standardized the relative risk to a common denominator ("10,000 exposures to an infected source"), which allows us to discuss relative risk. For instance, unprotected receptive anal sex is approximately 10 times more risky than unprotected insertive penile-vaginal sex, which in turn is approximately 10 times more risky than unprotected insertive oral sex.
I hope that this will help clarify the limitations of these estimated HIV-transmission risk statistics.
The bottom line is really much more concrete and easy to comprehend. If someone has placed himself or herself at risk for HIV, he or she should be HIV tested. Period. End of story.
I can just about hear all the paranoid panicky worried wells beginning to type away furiously, providing me with a blow-by-blow of their latest blow-by-blow and begging for me to quantify their specific risk. But unfortunately, unless the other person they were having sex with was me, I will not have enough specific detail to give them an accurate response. Hell, even if it were me, I still might not be able to give a completely accurate risk quantification!
Dr. Bob
Commonly Used HIV Infectivity Rate Misses Risks
Tuesday, August 5, 2008; 12:00 AM
TUESDAY, Aug. 5 (HealthDay News) -- A widely used HIV infectivity rate doesn't take into account multiple risk factors, say U.S. researchers who reviewed published data.
The heterosexual infectivity of HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) is often cited as a fixed value of one transmission per 1,000 sexual contacts. However, most studies estimating this value were conducted among stable couples with a low prevalence of risk factors, which can increase the risk of HIV transmission by several to several hundred times, according to Kimberly Powers, of the University of North Carolina, and colleagues.
They reviewed published data on HIV (up to April 2008) in order to estimate the effects of transmission co-factors that can affect the risk of heterosexual HIV transmission.
They found wide variations, with estimates ranging from zero transmissions after more than 100 penile-vaginal contacts in some serodiscordant couples (one partner HIV-positive and one partner HIV-negative), to one transmission for every 3.1 episodes of heterosexual anal intercourse, which is more than 300 times the commonly-cited fixed heterosexual infectivity rate.
Other infectivity differences, expressed as number of transmissions per 1,000 contacts, were:
13.2 for uncircumcised susceptible males vs. 5.1 for circumcised males.7.5 for susceptible people with genital ulcer disease vs. 1.5 for those without such disease.3.2 for early-stage index cases, 2.6 for late stage index cases, and 0.7 for mid-stage index cases.
"The use of a single, 'one-size-fits-all' value for the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 obscures important differences associated with transmission cofactors. Perhaps more importantly, the particular value of 0001 (i.e., one infection per 1000 contacts between infected and uninfected individuals) that is commonly used seems to represent a lower bound. As such, this value substantially underestimates the infectivity of HIV-1 in many heterosexual contexts...heterosexual infectivity can exceed 01 (one transmission per 10 contacts) for penile-vaginal contact or even 03 (one transmission per three contacts) for penile-anal contact. Claims in both the popular media and the peer-reviewed literature that HIV is very difficult to transmit heterosexually are dangerous in any context where the possibility of HIV exposure exists," the review authors wrote.
"Improved infectivity estimates -- especially more detailed estimates that quantify the amplifying effects of biological cofactors -- will help us to grasp the magnitude of the HIV epidemic, accurately communicate the level of risk involved in heterosexual sex, and identify the best possible intervention strategies for slowing the epidemic's spread," they concluded.
"Infectivity studies are very difficult to conduct, and that few studies exist as a result. Many of the studies producing the published estimates suffered from at least one potential bias. Therefore, while our study documents the considerable heterogeneity of the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 and provides some explanations for this heterogeneity, considerable uncertainty remains."?
The findings were expected to be announced at the International AIDS Conference in Mexico City. The review was published online inThe Lancet Infectious Diseasesand was expected to be in the September print issue of the journal.
More information
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about HIV/AIDS.
SOURCE:The Lancet Infectious Diseases, news release, Aug. 5, 2008
it takes only one time (HETEROSEXUAL TRANSMISSION) (HIV TRANSMISSION AFTER ONE EXPOSURE) Feb 2, 2009
This is a comment on one of the readers questions asking if you can get hiv by penetrating a woman who has hiv just ONE time when not wearing a condom, in other words not practising safe sex. One time. Yes you can, I did it one time and got it I didnt even come. I didnt ask her about this stuff, I assumed it was ok as there were no seemingly high risk categories, especially not from me, a normal everyday non promiscuous guy. Of course I only found out years later when in a relationship I infected the girl I was with, imagine that scenario, I didnt know I had it. Whenever I look for information on this bloody virus I have to pile through a load of gay stuff and cock sucking and arse fucking or dont share needles. Christ I dont even drink. I did it with a girl and got it, one time. I had no cuts no gashes no blood no spots or whatever else, I was perfectly I mean perfectly healthy and in brilliant shape, I still got it. I am still in mourning for my long gone self. So if you dont want to worry about it, wear a condom.
Response from Dr. Frascino
Thank you for writing in and sharing your story. It's amazing how many heterosexual guys do not believe they are at risk for HIV. Obviously our HIV awareness and prevention programs under the sex-phobic Bush Administration were woefully inadequate. As we turn back toward science and common sense, I look forward to finally getting the HIV message out in a clear, scientifically sound manner. Even though HIV remains 100% incurable, it is 100% preventable.
Good luck. I'm here if you need me. I do hope you'll soon stop "mourning your long gone self" and embrace the new you. You are "virally enhanced," but you are alive and "well" and have gained some valuable insights into life.
Dr. Bob
Insertive Oral Statistics Apr 23, 2009
Hi Dr. Bob, First let me say how much I admire your spirit, in dealing with a deadly viru as well as educating common people about the risks. I have a question about the risks of HIV transmission from insertive oral. The Vargehese paper from 2002 quoted by the CDC (and subsequently Wikipedia and you and more sources) states that the aquisition risk is 0.5/10,000 episodes. This is just an assumption, as even the paper states that there is no data to back up this number. From what I understand, there are no documented cases. You already know this, so why am I writing? The risk difference between insertive oral and vaginal is 10x. Someone might think that if they go for the former, then the latter is not all that more risky. Maybe you should change the nature of risk for insertive oral from 0.5/10,000 to extremely low? Just a suggestion. Anyway, my hat off to you for your efforts.
Response from Dr. Frascino
Most HIV specialists who have been in practice for a while have seen patients who claim insertive oral sex is their only HIV-risk exposure. These are anecdotal reports. There are no "documented cases," because that would require the sex police monitoring a couples' every sexual move to assure there was absolutely no other potential risk activity. The CDC estimated-risk statistics are very conservative and serve as an educational tool to show people the relative risk associated with various sexual practices. In that light, if vaginal sex is 10 times more risky than oral sex, it should make people think twice about taking that risk. The trouble with words like "low" is that no one really knows what that means. Our basic message should remain: Anal sex is more risky than vaginal sex which in turn is more risky than oral sex. The receptive partner is always at greater risk than the insertive partner for all types of penetrative sex. Use a latex or polyurethane condom for penetrative sex!
Dr. Bob