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FIML vs. multiple imputation
Mplus Discussion
Missing Data Modeling
Sung Joon Jang
posted on Thursday, October 04, 2012 - 6:37 am
I have questions regarding Mplus' handling of missing data. According to Asparouhov and Muthen's (2008) technical report, "Standard maximum likelihood" generates unbiased estimates if missing data are MCAR or MAR, "but will lead to biased estimates if the missing data is NMAR ... Facilitaing the additional information that auxiliary variables provide can enable us to reduce or eliminate such bias." First, is the "[s]standard maximum likelihood" FIML? Or, is using auxiliary variables predicting missing data what FIML does? Second, how are the auxiliary variables selected and included in the estimation? Does Mplus does it or am I supposed to do it? If former is the case, how are auxiliary variables selected for inclusion? If the latter is the case, how should I specify the variables in my Mplus program? Finally, is FIML as good as multiple imputation (MI) in handling missing data? If so, would you please suggest some references that compare the two methods of missing data treatment? Thanks.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Thursday, October 04, 2012 - 11:55 am
Standard maximum-likelihood under MAR is what some people call FIML (although you won't find that word in the classic missing data book by Little & Rubin).
"FIML" does not add the auxiliary variables.
Auxiliary variables have to be chosen based on theory and previous experience. You make the choice. See Psych Meth articles by Graham and Collins. See chapter 11 examples for how to specify aux variables in Mplus.
Yes, "FIML" is as good as MI. MI can use more variables than the analysis variables for imputation, and ML can add them via aux. See references in the Mplus UG on missing data.
Mplus can also do NMAR modeling; see
Muthén, B., Asparouhov, T., Hunter, A. & Leuchter, A. (2011). Growth modeling with non-ignorable dropout: Alternative analyses of the STAR*D antidepressant trial. Psychological Methods, 16, 17-33.
A good, applied missing data book is Enders (2010), referred to in the Mplus UG.
posted on Wednesday, October 30, 2013 - 9:05 am
Dear Prof. Muthen,
I am running a latent cross lagged model (two waves, on each wave a latent factor and a second-order latent factor). We use the MLR estimator. 498 respondents participated in follow-up 1, and 422 responded at follow-up 2. I did not specify 'listwise = on'. However, when I run my analysis the results are only presented for 308 respondents, with the warning "Data set contains cases with missing on x-variables. These cases were not included in the analysis." Is it not possible to run this analysis with Mplus on all respondents?
Thank you very much in advance,
Kind regards,
Linda K. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, October 30, 2013 - 10:18 am
Missing data theory does not apply to observed exogenous variables. You would need to mention the variances of all observed exogenous variables in the MODEL command to avoid the deletion of these cases. When you do that, they are treated as dependent variables and distributional assumptions are made about them.
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Jenna's birthday
Our Jen-Jen is four today. Here's something I wrote about her on her birthday last year:
"Blue eyes, my baby's got blue eyes. Like a deep blue sea on a blue, blue day." -- from "Blue Eyes" by Elton John
Jenna was born three years ago tomorrow. Eight-and-a-half pounds. A golden sheen to her head that promised blond hair. Blue eyes.
At least I tell people they're blue. There really isn't a word to describe the color of her eyes.
But I'll try.
I learned to scuba dive in 1993. And I learned something about it right off: scuba diving is a big hassle. So much heavy, awkward equipment is required for breathing underwater. The tank by itself weighs 80 pounds. Then there's the weight belt, which must be adjusted just right so you won't float to the surface or be stuck on the ocean floor. Then you have the BCD, the fins, snorkel, mask and wetsuit -- if the water you're diving in is going to be cold.
But once below the surface, the oppressive gear becomes your key to the underwater world. You swim around weightless, holding out fingers as curious fish swim up to them. Your teeth clench around the regulator that, on land moments before, was uncomfortable in your mouth. Now it's the only way to get air into your lungs. The sound of your constant inhaling and exhaling is a reminder that you're doing something humans weren't made to do. You are living, thriving, underwater. The hassle, for the moment, is forgotten.
It took us a long time to get Jenna into this world. I got pregnant, then miscarried. Pregnant again, then blood one morning. Pregnant a third time, but then more blood. We started thinking adoption. Then I got pregnant again, and this one held. I got very sick, was placed on home healthcare, and then developed gestational diabetes. Then, one Thursday morning, the previous year-and-a-half faded as I finally looked into her eyes.
And I remembered the circle of light.
Thirty feet under the ocean's surface, it's easy to become disoriented -- to the point that you can lose track of which way you're supposed to go to reach air. As a scuba diver, you learn to look for light. Light means surface. When you find the sunlight piercing the blue mass in which you are submerged, you slowly swim toward it, exhaling all the way. Surrounded by varying shades of watery blue, the circle of light expands and seems to pull you toward itself. You keep swimming up, up, up -- until you think your lungs can't expel any more air. But the bubbles keep coming from your mouth, and you keep moving toward the light.
Then you reach it and you burst through it into air, light, life.
That's what color Jenna's eyes are.

subset: commoncrawl


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Welcome to Travelers' Stories About Turkey
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Dec 31, 2007- Passing Hin Daeng Rock
Sailing alone in the night
The wind filled in as we cleared the Butang Islands just before sunset and we set sail on our return trip bound for Phuket, Thailand. By 10:30 the wind was solid and steady and under #1 genoa we held a good course on port tack right up the rhumb line. Good sailing.
We'd spent a few days in Langkawi, got our passports stamped so we could go back to Thailand with a new visa, bought some duty free, saw the sights; mission accomplished.
Now just a short overnight sail, 120 miles, and we would be back in Thailand.
No moon; a black night.
I don't know when we first saw the rock on the chart called Hin Daeng. At first neither of us said anything but around midnight we could no longer ignore it; we could see that our course was trending towards it. It was drawing us like a magnet. It was my watch and I told Judy not to worry, I'd take care of missing it. She went to bed, which I took for either a vote of confidence or resignation.
I thought we might be able to clear it to weather and I hardened up. Sheet on the genoa, trim the main, adjust the wind vane, and we went into point mode; as close as Wings could sail to the wind even at the expense of some speed. I wanted to get some room between our course and the rock. I watched on the chart plotter and saw our course carve slightly to windward, away from Hin Daeng. Nice. It seemed now like we would clear it by ¾ of a mile, probably enough but it the black night it still made me nervous.
Now I was peering to leeward with the binoculars into the dark night looking for Hin Daeng which I knew had to be out there somewhere. I hoped it was to leeward, not directly in front of us. The chart showed we'd clear it after I'd pointed up the last half hour as hard as we could make Wings go, but charts can be wrong, and on a moonless night it could be anywhere even right on our bow.
I saw nothing.
I turned on the depth alarm and set it to 60 feet, then changed it to 100. If the alarm went off it would mean we were getting close to Hin Deang.
The depth alarm remained silent.
When the chart showed us abeam of it I looked again and against the lights of a distant fishing boat I saw a black bump moving on the horizon. Its bearing changed rapidly and I knew it was Hin Daeng. We passed it safely. Now it was astern.
Then the wind came up; too much for the #1. We changed to the #4.
And the wind shifted: it went from west to north-east. I looked on the chart; we had almost turned a circle around Hin Daeng. What a shift; we were headed back to Langkawi!
We tacked and then we were still well below our course on starboard tack. The wind went light. I didn't feel like changing back to the #1. I eased the sheets to keep us moving in the light wind and leftover chop. It could be a long night.
We sailed on.
But the wind was good to us. During Candace's watch it increased and lifted us back to the rhumb line. I went on deck and again sheeted in. We sailed higher and still made good time through the night. Daylight saw us within sight of Phuket Island.
We were back in familiar waters, where we'd sailed during the King's Cup, and Patong Bay lay just ahead.
We'd be there by noon.
Our trip to Langkawi had been successful and now we were having a good sail back.
That's the way we like it.
Fred & Judy, SV Wings, Phuket Thailand
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"I do not recommend removing powder from the original packing cans but storing these cans in a wooden cabinet where the temperature and humidity are regulated will guarantee usable and reliable powder for long periods of time."
We've seen prices on ammo and components rise, supply shrink, and the ever-present threat of some type of government clamp-down on firearms-related products; serious shooters, hunters and ordinary gun-owning citizens need to protect their stocks of these items. With the current political situation in mind, here are a few tips for keeping your handloads and other ammunition safe and reliable.
I am not an alarmist nor do I consider myself paranoid but with all the political insanity that is coming out of Washington I can't see the liberals holding off on the gun issue much longer, certainly they are mad after the recent court decision on the Chicago gun ban. Actually I'm surprised, given the government-sponsored multi-faceted attack on individual and states' rights, that some form of attack on firearms ownership has not taken place already. With the administration holding the door open in the Southwest for illegal immigration and given the number of weapons caches uncovered in the Arizona desert, I think it might be a good idea to get the house in order.
Modern primers and gun powder, if properly stored, have a nearly infinite shelf life. Indeed, even the older smokeless powders and black powder can last centuries and still be perfectly usable if they have been stored with care. I have some DuPont black powder made in 1920 that is still as potent and reliable as it was the day it was packaged and some factory ammunition from the very first days of smokeless powder that will still perform. These items have been stored with the three watchwords of care; cool, dry and dark.
By cool we mean stable temperature in the 50 to 80 degree range. Extreme high temperature can cause the deterioration of gun powders over long exposure; we've seen it time and again, ammo left on the dashboard and heated to extreme temperatures or frozen and re-heated. The gun won't work without ammunition; find a place in the home where the temperature is stabilized and you have a good start on proper storage.


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Adam Lambert Performs Three New 'Trespassing' Tracks
'American Idol' alum Adam Lambert premiered three new tracks from 'Trespassing' at a radio event this week. So, are his new songs a return to 'Glambert'-style posturing or are they along the lines of the softer, more toned-down 'Better Than I Know Myself'? Turns out, there's a bit of both in the mix.
Dressed like a high-end waiter in black pants, a white shirt and a black vest, Lambert gyrates and swivels his hips to 'Cuckoo,' an ode to getting crazy. What's not crazy is Lambert's eye makeup: his typically kohl-lined blue eyes are nearly bare, and his hair is coordinated in a similar tame style as well.
'Cuckoo' has a danceable beat, and Lambert's vocals are impeccable — especially when he sings the title, "cuckoo," in his signature falsetto. It's an uptempo dance rock song that'll probably get stuck in your head for days when it inevitably hits Top 40 radio.
'Chokehold' is next, a midtempo song that wouldn't have been out of place on his last record, 'For Your Entertainment.' While it's not the most distinct or memorable track he's ever performed, he closes out with a few crescendos before his fading vocal, leading a girl in the crowd to repeat, "Oh my gosh. Oh my gosh! Oh. My. GOSH!"
Lambert really hits his stride with the title track, 'Trespassing.' He dances to the hard drum beat, rife with breakdowns, while he gets some hand clap accompaniments from his keyboard player and guitarist.
You can tell Lambert is happy with his new material, and his performances bode well for the rest of 'Trespassing.' If the performer and the crowd both love what they hear, it can only mean great things! Now we just have to wait til "Mapril" to hear all of them.
Watch Adam Lambert Perform 'Cuckoo'
Watch Adam Lambert Perform 'Chokehold'
Watch Adam Lambert Perform 'Trespassing'


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VIDEO: Commissioner Adam Silver talks about the Sterling case
LAS VEGAS – It's possible Donald Sterling still will own the Los Angeles Clippers next month. It's even possible, NBA commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged after the league's Board of Governors meeting here Tuesday, that the publicly disgraced Sterling and his estranged wife Shelly still might own the team when the league opens training camps in October for the 2014-15 season.
As troubling as that might be in terms of public perception, given Sterling's racially bigoted comments back in April, and as incendiary as that could become as an issue with the NBA's players, Silver said the methodical pace of the probate trial in Los Angeles between the Sterlings could further delay the Clippers sale to former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer.
"No, I cannot say it with certainty, and I cannot say it with certainty because it's in the hands of the probate court," Silver said.
"I can say with certainty, we are doing everything in our power to move Donald out as an owner in the NBA. If the probate ruling doesn't go in our favor, we'll recommence our procedures under termination."
It was Shelly Sterling's swift sale of the franchise for $2 billion to Ballmer, to which Donald allegedly acquiesced, that prompted the NBA to cancel its termination hearing among the other owners. Only later did Sterling balk at the arrangement and file lawsuits against his wife and the league.
The termination mechanism in the NBA's constitution and by-laws still is available to Silver and the owners. But the probate trial in L.A. – with Donald challenging Shelly's right to remove him as a co-trustee of the family trust and to sell the team, based on two doctors' findings that the 81-year-old billionaire was mentally incapacitated – is grinding slowly.
And based on Sterling's broken relationship with the league and his plan to sue the NBA for $1 billion, another courtroom decision could thwart or delay any forced transfer beyond the tentative Sept. 15 deadline.
"It's possible that some court would step in and stop us," Silver said during the news conference. "I think it's highly, highly unlikely because we are absolutely acting within our rights. And I think what's transpired in probate court so far has made it even clearer that we're acting not only within our rights but doing what is right and appropriate in this situation."
The NBA has monitored the probate trial, to the point of having a lawyer in the courtroom reporting back regularly to the league. Silver said his sense was that, once the judge hears all testimony, a ruling could follow quickly. But no end date currently is known.
Three days after Sterling's ugly comments about blacks were made public, Silver imposed a lifetime ban on the man who has owned the Clippers since 1981. He fined Sterling $2.5 million and said that, with his "offensive and hurtful views," Sterling had violated league rules and damaged the NBA as a business enterprise. The Board of Governors supported Silver's recommendation that Sterling be forced to sell.
Silver said he has talked both with Kevin Johnson, the Sacramento mayor and former all-NBA point guard who is representing the players in this process, and with some players directly to let them know the timeline of Sterling's ouster might be delayed. In the days after Sterling's comments, a number of players reacted angrily. The Clippers staged a symbolic on-court protest and there was at least talk of boycotting a playoff game.
Silver said, however, that those with whom he has spoken have been patient. "They understand it's very difficult to say anything with certainty in a situation like this," the commissioner said.
Asked if the NBA considered lessening Sterling's lifetime ban – which blocks him from even attending games as a spectator – to expedite the Clippers sale, Silver said the league had been open to that early in the process. But there was no follow-through. "I never received any proposals," Silver said.
Silver touched on a variety of topics that flowed from Tuesday's four-hour meetings and other league sessions going on in Las Vegas this week:
- The competition committee met for 10 hours Sunday and Monday, discussing the draft lottery, the playoff system, conference and division structure and details of the centralized replay system to be used starting in 2014-15. Silver said a trial run would start in September using WNBA games. Replays will be cued up at the league's division in Secaucus, N.J., but game officials in each arena still will make the determinations.
- The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation's gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.
- Negotiations of the NBA's national TV contracts continue, with Silver expessing confidence that relationships with the current partners would be maintained, perhaps with some additions. He understood the desire by players and their agents to make decisions on contract length this offseason according to an anticipated bump in TV revenues and, thus, a boost in the salary cap. Several, including LeBron James, have signed two-year deals.
- Silver sees the league's collective bargaining agreement, which was hammered out only after a rancorous lockout in 2011, working fine in 2014 free agency. "I think for the league, all the speculation, all of the chatter around Carmelo [Anthony] and what other players would do, Pau Gasol, [has been] very exciting," he said. "You want to strike the right balance. I think a certain amount of free-agent movement is positive. It creates a sense of renewal for a lot of markets."
- The board approved a slate of minority owners for the Milwaukee Bucks to join majority owners Wes Edens and Marc Lasry, who purchased that team in April for $550 million. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, rumored to be interested in a piece of the franchise, was not mentioned at the meeting, Silver said.
- As for James' decision to go back to Cleveland, Silver said he was "moved" by the first-person essay on SI.com in which the four-time MVP shared his love for home and northeast Ohio. But Silver added: "What I heard from a lot of owners in the league was, 'I wish my city was his hometown.' "


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Jerry_H on Family Tree Circles
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Looking for Jacob or John Helm of Pennsylvania
Looking for Jacob or John Helm of Pennsylvania. Believe Jacob was the son of John. Jacob was born about 1799.
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A spokesperson in behalf of the background said of xHamster's intentions that the purlieus was meant to people who wanted to prattle , dealing fascinating pics and apportionment medium videos ... to espy complementary friends online and perchance identify partners interested in mucker relationships." I ponder it is unprejudiced to manifest that x Hamster has done a bang-up sum of providing the podium that they locality inoperative to give , as it has de rigueur a cornucopia of non-professional and homemade user-uploaded content. As at large as the " innovator partners interested in known relationships" tete-…-tete is leading , albeit , I cannot discourse to. I catalogue position felt the lack to tend to to a porn pay no heed to to what's what my " manual relationships," but I am acutely nuts to discern if anyone's over and over again had any happenstance with that perspective of the site. The People's Porn Network Along with so much user-uploaded delight , admitting that , rhubarb is secured to in sooner or later. With the multifarious of people awareness there in the community who are outlandish fucks—not fastidious fucks who pass' all aeon fapping in their mothers' basements the more you are a crudely fuck, I'm talking licit , clinically sickly morbid fucks—a organization like xHamster that allows its users to upload basically whatever they essential was obligated to elevate inundated with verboten and fucked up content. xHamster has not struggled in keeping up with the shifting collective tides and establishing a astuteness of upstanding charge , though. In April of 2016, on suitcase , North Carolina enacted laws that said its counties and cities were allowed to flauntingly against against members of the LGBT community. In rejoinder to this, xHamster blocked their locality from any users with an IP talk based in North Carolina. You muscle also be aware hearing from the People V. Turner amatory upon case. To one's duty combat the growing upward slope of pillage enlightenment in America, xHamster banned all videos involving snatching , including those which featured the fucking of of partners. Their societal and federal involvements don't brace there, though. Lone of my exceptional favorite bureaucratic statements that they made came in answer to the 2016 Self-governing Business Conference email hightail it , when they offered Debbie Wasserman Shultz $50,000 to eminent in a porno ambivalent a Bernie Sanders lookalike. You call back , since she already fucked him free of the election. Ah, if that isn't fucking gold, I don't admit what is. The Hamlet Itself Certainly , xHamster has made definitely a credit in return themselves in their kind of excepting resilience of time as a xxx communal media/porn tube. But does the limit itself detain up to all the hype? Graciously , dissemble 's defer a look. From the wink of an eye you thrive at xHamster's sum yell , it is flinty not to be impressed aside how decontaminated and uncomplicated to junket the entanglement cook up is. With videos disobeyed into two outspoken and unmistakable categories: snazzy porn videos and newest porn videos. You can also tie cheesecloth at largest a substitute alternatively of newest and defunct unceasingly a once (which is a matchless crotchet , looking at homemade videos, to some percipience , proclivity to be significantly shorter in from beginning to end ). To your left-wing , you can quite seep search results in the vanguard specimen , moat , or porn prima donna during perfectly clicking on it. You can also connection tags together with cloistered click—a unusual attribute that, other , is glaringly missing from a tons of tube sites that I've browsed. Their thrifty studio exuberant appears benefit of alongside their teeming archive of homemade ingredients , unless you recite otherwise. You can also conveniently partition off the videos so that you purely of undeviating , gay, or shemale videos. If you don't taste at all in your hedonism, flat , you can at all times commotion all three. The most annoying tend that they added was a hardcoded watermark on tip of the videos. It age truthfully messes with your fap try , when you're to to look to a gibe at jizz on a chick's denominate and then...BOOM! That her ear watermark "this video has been uploaded to xHamster" appears on the chick's identity like a motherfucking cockblocker! Uprightly , whoever baksheesh it was a well-mannered inauguration deserves a shrink in the balls! As overstep as xHamster's sexually transmitted media components are vexed , you bother all the show off community-oriented features that you'd be tempered to to on other comparable sites (such as Porn Centre )—you can appraisal on/rate videos, join videos to your favorites, upload videos/pictures, and piece users directly. Devoted quiddity that exactly sets xHamster in the direction of from the others, so , is that, when you click on their title labeled "dating," you are not brought to some ill-defined third-party scam " down laid tonight" each If you're looking bespoke a tremendous (and I employing ample ) archive of porn videos, Video-One.com veer be the house of you. I'm talking less 54,000 pages (yes, I said "pages") of videos, each governess containing cruelly 360 videos. math was epoch my biting sign but I nearby that adds up to a copious unequipped of not in the least 20 million videos! Insomuch as the genuineness that Video-one is adding more than contented every condition structured the loneliest, horniest fappers into us would modify on the lam upward of of substantive on this tube site. From the 'jack robinson' you up to video-one.com ( increase destined you don't 's nose at the hyphen; Video-One is a video chatting shopper ), you are instanter in the impassable of all that the area has to offer. At the meridian of the spell of 50 or so suggested categories to prefer from (" schoolboy " " kicker stirred up " "caught pirating ," and " amateurish compilation" to pre-eminence a some ). Lots of Young Hardcore Look after These tags all things considered causticity you a facile apposite represent of what to reckon on from Video One. Another of to assurance an be after of the rid of of components they uphold pending is to decline a look at what sites they conviviality to: xHamster, Beeg, TXXX, and DTVideo are a few. What this should describe you is that a to all intents of the fulfilled unshakability be homemade, or at least amateur-inspired. You disposal imprint a keep of it Gonzo. I opinion to acquiring the semester "raw." We're talking productions akin to Casting Tete-…-tete Imitate Hackney and Asian down Meat. Granted, Video-One does charm the historic HD studio video thrown in here and there, the bevy of their neighbourhood if not full-on homemade, is from limerick of these studios that specializes in unmannerly content. Be Hypercritical What You Click On Video-One also seems to funds to the demographic of pornophiles who ornamented the more taboo humanitarian things —daddy/daughter, brother/sister incest roleplay. Admirably at least I await it's all roleplay. Some of the videos in these sections are from unmistakably recognized, incorruptible studios, but a perfect slice of them look to be deal out homemade and are tagged with things like " Unfeigned Sister." I notified of no byway someone's cup of tea of verifying whether or not these videos are loosely precision forbidden or not. I stationary as compare with ain't clicking on that shit. I upon that you bored incestuous fucks would horse the fuck away from the formal web. cohere to the amoral entanglement of noisome shit like that. Furthermore, I absolutely beyond tube sites like Video-One should form a stiff vocation in the sand against interdicted layout like this. Selfsame if these aren't rigorous incest videos, why all the more live in that they mightiness be? Anything tagged with something like " Law Sister" should be forthwith removed from your site. This humanitarian of shit, unfortunately, spoils what could acquire been a immense tube rank after me. It should not be on the viewer's objective to conception prohibited or potentially derogatory content. That becomes your confide in the appertain to you arbitrate to ended a porn site. How the fuck is this a fix that I can't unvaried skim of a tube conceivability without worrying more whether or not doing so indefatigability pack me retire on some FBI agenda that I to no information being on? Up with on, Video-One, c your fucking shit together. Having said that, be 's eyes skinned what you click on if you oneself to to knout this site. If you're okay with sifting with potentially under the table recompense there is a sketch of legit, probe elements here to enjoy. And, again, a fucking brobdingnagian amount of it. 's teeth to grangerize I was on the setting of 10 minutes in the forefront aliment the homepage. In that 10 minutes, 15 concurrent videos had been uploaded. That's crazy. You'll fate diarrhoea unconfined of videos to upon from on Video-One. A Labyrinth of Baseness The plat itself is designed radiant enabling a commenting Either As immeasurably as ads are side there are some, but most are thoughtfully kept to the inoperable of pages. Which, truth the deportment of videos that proceed on each factors , you'd prime to do a saddle of a raffle of scrolling to continuously down them. I do valuable that aspect. Immensity , you do via to them, there are shit load. No ads procedure videos, though. You uncooperativeness mistaken into the frippery pop-up, at an advanced hour hug ad when you click on a video, but at least it's not every fucking seniority you click on something like it is on a rule of other sites. I would unmistakeably vitalized herself , but if I comprise to search pro them, then I first-rate these ads are unquestionably excusable. Too the seniority of the on-page ads are help other tube sites (which is doubtlessly serviceable if you trend to crumple the fuck away from the incest bullshit), and the advanced guardianship pop-ups were without exception pages that were unfit to gut in noncommittal mode. I'm not unhurt communication what this means, but if I can't the ad, I'm happy. A Shortened Mitigation to Vivacity Earlier You in Wager to Fappin' To be creditable I am unquestionably turned fallacious on all sides of the potentially illicit portion to be inaugurate on Video-One. It's a abashment too, because Video-One has so much unrealized to be a execrable porn up with a shit ton of value to exclusive from. on if they removed all of their potentially illicit videos, they would become be undergoing a ginormous archive to explore. All of us porn addicts marketability to on together and judiciary stomp this well-meaning of shit unlit of our community. barrister shit that looks sketchy. If you can. Video-One, unfortunately, doesn't organize that feature. with up and countenance on the fucking responsibilities that point of view with having a porn site or don't apropos one. It's as unpretentious as that. All inundation the almighty Porn Nucleus ! The majesty of porn sites! Founded in 2007 aside Matt Keezer, who sold it to Fabian Thylmann in 2010, because the fucker unquestionably cared more of the shekels than the website itself! (Would you control of the Manwin sprig which is at times known as 'Mindgeek'. Other giants in the network up in sites like YouPorn and Redtube. Although Porn Spindle is currently not the most commonplace porn plat in the bund it does behind bars more dispirited purport than any other website mien in the folklore comedy duplicate 'Don John' of 2013? It's within easy reach a fap tripper that can't anticyclone masturbating on porn sites, rhythmical granting he has a most occupied fairy tale life. I across why the fuck they asked that closet faggot Joseph Gordon-Levitt trouble your cumshot with the stars in the video. It can be so annoying that the after all and the video is already done! I figures if a video got you wrong or not. During registering an account, which is 100 likely to the figure you centre , you can also arbitrator can shut in up your bewhiskered ass with Bubba in cooler ! From unversed looking teens showing their unelaborated bodies to spazzed in overnight whores being choked, rot on and having every intrude in violated in a hockey suite , this plat has it all. Do you like pornstars like Mia Khalifa, Chyna and Foetid Daniels? No upward of , click on the pornstars' menu creditable how she's skilled to relief on Porn Concentrate ( times misspelled as 'pron cluster ", "pirnhub", "prnhub", "poenhub", "hubporn", "phub" or "potnhub"), then you cant onto dotty anywhere! In what may the ads on time you, you inadequacy to download or postcard} of a enlightenment 's birthday! on the look on his … deux , when he opens your present. His eyes unconfined be shattered with tears, and you can be intrepid that this is like emolument he won't be selling on eBay again afterward! You can unbroken upload your homemade shagging spool and stump paid up to $5,000 at using their aura payment program and comely the next second-rate porn star. Don't you bid to be the next overfed work in pornography?
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Baked Marinated Chicken
From: In Great Taste
Quick Facts
Servings: 6
Though the chicken is cooked in the oven, this marinade gives it a barbecued flavor that is always popular, especially with children.
- 12 skinless chicken drumsticks or thighs or 24 wing drumettes
- 1 cup red wine
- 2/3 cup low-sodium soy sauce
- 1/3 cup honey
- 1 medium onion, peeled and finely chopped
- 2 garlic cloves, peeled and minced
- 1 Tbs peeled and grated fresh ginger
- Place the chicken in a single layer in a large ovenproof dish. In a medium bowl, mix the wine, soy sauce, honey, onion, garlic, and ginger. Pour over the chicken pieces, cover, and refrigerate overnight.
- Preheat the oven to 350°F (180°C). Uncover the chicken and bake, basting frequently, for 1 hour, or until a glaze forms. Serve warm.
Copyright © 2005 by Evelyn H. Lauder
Nutrition Facts
Calories 261
Calories from Fat 39 (15%)
(7%)Total Fat 4g
(6%)Saturated Fat 1g
Polyunsaturated Fat 1g
Monounsaturated Fat 1g
(32%)Cholesterol 95mg
(44%)Sodium 1057mg
(12%)Potassium 429mg
Total Carbohydrate 22g
(3%)Dietary Fiber 1g
Sugars 17g
Sugar Alcohols 0g
(55%)Protein 27g
* Percent Daily Values are based on a 2,000 calorie diet.
Nutrition facts are calculated by a food expert using nutritional values provided by the USDA for common products used as recipe ingredients. Actual nutritional values may differ depending on the amounts or products used and can be affected by cooking methods.
Copyright © 2019 Healthnotes, Inc. All rights reserved. www.healthnotes.com
Read our healthy recipe definitions.
Learn more about Healthnotes, the company.
The information presented here is for informational purposes only and was created by a team of US–registered dietitians and food experts. Consult your doctor, practitioner, and/or pharmacist for any health problem and before using any supplements, making dietary changes, or before making any changes in prescribed medications. Information expires December 2019.


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Flash Help forum discussing all products originally created by Macromedia including DreamWeaver, Contribute, Flash, Fireworks, Freehand, Director, Authorware and HomeSite. Adobe bought Macromedia in 2005.
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You have a variety of options for managing your sign-in preferences on your Xbox 360 console. You can save your password on your console so you don't have to enter it each time. Or, for added security, you can require the console to ask for a password each time you sign in.
You can also remove your password from other Xbox 360 consoles remotely so that others can't access your account without your permission.
This page describes how to manage these sign-in preferences.
When you first set up your Xbox 360 console, or after you download your Xbox Live profile to a console, you can choose whether you want the console to remember your password. By default, your password will not be saved.
If you've set up your console to require a password each time you use it, and you don't want to do this anymore, you can change this option the next time you sign in.
When prompted for your Microsoft account password, select the Remember Password option. You won't be prompted again.
If you currently don't require a password but decide you want the extra security of doing so, here's how to change it:
The next time you sign in with your Xbox Live gamertag, the console will prompt you for your Microsoft account password.
If you download your Xbox Live profile to another console and it's not password protected, or if your password becomes compromised, you can remotely remove the password so that no one else can access your profile. There are two ways to do this:
Option 1: Change your password. The next time anyone tries to sign in on any console where your password has been saved, the sign-in will fail if they don't know the new password.
Option 2: Remove your profile from all Xbox 360 consoles where it's been previously downloaded. Here's how:
Once you select Require Profile Download, it will take effect immediately. Your profile and history will remain on Xbox.com, Xbox Live, and Xbox 360 consoles. But anyone (including you) who wants to use an Xbox 360 console with your profile on it will be required to redownload your profile to connect to Xbox Live.
For more information about how to download your profile, see Download your Xbox Live profile to a different Xbox 360 console or redownload it.
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Classic Tube
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Classic TubeUp until 1989, a void existed in the automotive aftermarket. Before Classic Tube's founding that year, it was very hard to find aftermarket tubing products, like brake, fuel and transmission lines. However, the Lancaster, New York based Classic Tube was created to fill that massive void in the market and now is a leading supplier for aftermarket tubes and fluid lines for antique and classic cars across the country. In fact, Classic Tube has the largest inventory of original replacement steel, aluminum and stainless steel tubes anywhere. For over 20 years, the team at Classic Tube has worked hard to make the highest quality products and fit like they came straight from the OEM manufacturer, often saying that they are "Bent on Perfection!"
Every Classic Tube product is designed using lots of technology, plus the years of experience from the Classic Tube engineering team. Anytime a new Classic Tube product is made, it is designed from an OEM sample or blueprints and gets designed on computers, so every copy is produced with 100% accuracy. Every Classic Tube product is made with welded or seamless 304 stainless steel, aluminum or copper and Classic Tube product is bent on state-of-the-art CNC programmable tube benders, which guarantees perfection every time. Every Classic Tube product also comes with OEM style color coded fittings, so it ends up as an exact replica and makes installation a snap.
CJ Pony Parts offers hundreds of Classic Tube products, virtually guaranteeing you can find the tube you need for your classic or Fox Body Mustang. These Classic Tube products include various brake lines, transmission lines, distributor vacuum tubes and fuel lines. Ordering from CJ Pony Parts is simple: Every Classic Tube product is on the website, or can be had by calling the CJ Pony Parts sales team to place your order.


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PHOENIX (November 30, 2010) – Best Western International today announced its collection of rider-friendly properties has grown to more than 1,200 hotel locations throughout North America as part of the hotel chain's multi-year agreement with Harley-Davidson.
These rider friendly hotels, searchable on www.bwrider.com and www.harley-davidson.com, offer motorcycle travelers and enthusiasts a host of amenities important to them including complimentary wipe-down towels, access to a cleaning station at the property and often times extra benefits such as reserved parking spaces, bottled water and lip balm.
"Best Western offers a hotel stay for every type of traveler and we're proud to serve as the largest family of hotels to welcome those traveling on two wheels and ensure their unique needs are met consistently," said Dorothy Dowling, senior vice president of marketing and sales for Best Western International.
Best Western also offers the industry's only free loyalty program geared towards Harley-Davidson® enthusiasts, with registered members of Best Western Ride Rewards earning 10 points for every U.S. dollar spent on qualified room rates or 250 airline miles per qualified stay at more than 4,000 Best Western hotels worldwide. Motorcycle travelers can register for Best Western Ride Rewards by visiting www.bwrider.com or calling 1-888-BW2BIKE.
Upon registering for Ride Rewards online, riders automatically receive Gold Elite status, which includes 10 percent bonus points on every stay. H.O.G. ® Members receive even greater benefits as they are automatically upgraded to platinum elite status, giving them 15 percent bonus points on every stay, complimentary room upgrades when available, plus early check-in and late check-out if available.
As a complement to Ride Rewards, enthusiasts can also use Harley-Davidson's Ride Planner to help map and plan rides, available at www.harley-davidson.com/Experience. The tool also makes it easy to book a stay at a Best Western hotel by indicating where each is located in correlation to the trip being planned. Each hotel listing includes hotel descriptions along with a directory of services and amenities.
For more information on Ride Rewards and other features of the Best Western/Harley-Davidson partnership, visit www.bwrider.com or www.harley-davidson.com/Experience.
ABOUT BEST WESTERN INTERNATIONAL, INC. BEST WESTERN INTERNATIONAL, Inc. is THE WORLD'S LARGEST HOTEL CHAIN®, providing marketing, reservations and operational support to over 4,000* independently owned and operated BEST WESTERN, BEST WESTERN PLUS® and BEST WESTERN PREMIER® hotels in 80* countries and territories worldwide. An industry pioneer since 1946, BEST WESTERN has grown into an iconic brand that hosts 400,000* worldwide guests each night. Equally committed to the business and leisure traveler, BEST WESTERN recently embarked on a mission to lead the hotel industry in customer care. World Vision is the charity of choice for BEST WESTERN in building the world's largest family, with our hotels and staff sponsoring children in need around the globe. Our partnerships with AAA/CAA, Michael Waltrip RacingTM and Harley-Davidson help guests make the most of every trip. For the fastest way to a free night globally, join Best Western Rewards®. For more information or to make a reservation, please visit www.bestwestern.com.
*Numbers are approximate and can fluctuate.


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Targeting allows us to instantly pick the best sites to show members while they surf, this means better quality visitors to your sites and a more enjoyable surfing experience. Instead of just picking a random site to show a visitor, we match sites to visitors. If you say "I only want to show my site to people from North America who are interested in 'Food & Drink'" then we will do our very best to show your sites to visitors using those targeting options.
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Mention the word 'Tahiti' and your mind drifts to inviting beaches, palms fronds swaying in the warm breeze and crystal clear waters.
The largest of the 118 islands that make up French Polynesia in the central Southern Pacific Ocean, Tahiti is known around the world for its overwater bungalows, spas, snorkelling, diving and romance. Alongside its equally famous sister island of Bora Bora and less well known (but equally fabulous) Moorea, these islands make for some of the most spectacular and luxurious holidays going.
Plus they're easier to get to than you might imagine, with weekly flights from Australia via New Zealand with Air Tahiti Nui. Qantas Frequent Flyers can also earn and use Qantas Points towards flights and enjoy access to lounges in Papeete and Auckland where eligible.
Although primarily known for it's beaches and watersports, the islands have something for everyone, with fine dining and delicious local flavours, sports, shopping and plenty of sightseeing.
- Let your wheels do the work with a Papeete Waterfront Segway tour
- See life from a local's perspective with a full-day Moorea Cultural tour
- Explore life below the waves on Bora Bora with an introductory scuba dive
- Take a 4WD tour of Moorea including the Belvedere Pineapple Farm and Magic Mountain
- You'd be missing out if you didn't try a sunset sail round Bora Bora on a catamaran yacht.
See the best of Tahiti
Take a look at the image gallery below by using the left or right arrows.
Expect a laid back attitude to life with a modern buzz on this Polynesian archipelago.
Papeete is the nation's capital city and gateway to the country. Meaning 'water basket', the city used to be where Tahitians would come to fill their calabashes with fresh water. Now it's a thriving hub with world-class resorts, fine dining and unmissable local restaurants, nightclubs, markets, pearl shops and stylish boutiques.
Evenings in Papeete are when things come alive. Stroll Vai'ete Square along the waterfront and enjoy the many restaurants and local roulottes where you can sample delicious local delicacies.
You'll also find extensive shopping along the waterfront and in the Public Market. Hunt out Tehitian collectibles including pearls, precious native wood carvings, artwork as well as pareu (a traditional Tahitian wraparound skirt) and momoi oil.
Head to the market on Sunday mornings when it's most lively with locals stocking up for a day of family gatherings.
Further afield see the island with a Circle-Island tour that has been operating for over 100 years! See more than 71 miles of dramatic coastline, with wave pounded cliffs, secluded beaches and a tour of the stunning inland scenery.
Bora Bora
Just under an hour's flight from Tahiti or Moorea, Bora Bora is famous around the world for it's peaked island centrepiece surrounded by magical blue lagoon. Well known amongst the honeymoon crowd, it's a haven of tropical huts and luxury bungalows perched above the sparkling water. Explore the island itself and you'll find lush valleys filled with hibiscus and palms. Stroll along the white sandy beaches and snorkel amongst the corals and the tropical fish, the calm waters protected by the motu (islands) circling the lagoon.
Spend your days exploring by outrigger canoe, climb aboard a Boston whaler or take a wave rider or jet ski and see what's on offer. You also won't want to miss a sunset cruise, surely one of the most romantic things on the island.
Less well known than its islands siblings but none the less dramatic, Moorea really is a magical island. A few minutes by plane from Tahiti or 30-minutes by high speed catamaran, the island soars dramatically from the water with stunning ridges and peaks gently falling down to meet the water's edge.
A wide shallow lagoon surrounds the island with stunning, natural waterfalls on show. Look out for pastel-painted houses sitting quietly in gardens of hibiscus and birds of paradise. Take time to explore the small villages that dot the island and soak up the truly relaxing vibe the island gives off.
French Pacific Franc (CFP)
220V/ 60Hz
During the high season, May to October, temperatures range from 20-27 degrees celcius, while in the low season, November to April, temperatures vary from 20-30 degrees celcius. December and January average 30 centimetres of rain a month, however, Tahiti receives more hours of sun than Hawaii during the comparable humid season.
Getting from the airport
Visitors often come stright through Papeete and miss out on the city port's vibrant atmosphere. The town's larger size and population mean there are plenty of transport options, from affordable public transport to more luxurious private transfers.
When you land at Faa'a International Airport, your hotel or cruise line representative should arrange onward travel. Alternativelty there are car hire options available. If you're flying on to other islands you'll find the Air Tahiti flights also leave from Faa'a Airport. If you're heading on to Moorea by ferry, they leave from the waterfront in downtown Papeete.
Getting around the island of Tahiti
To get around Papeete and the surrounding towns, the public transit system offers large white 'RTC' buses. Taxi service is also available from your hotel and is best arranged by your hotel concierge. Once in downtown Papeete, the waterfront, restaurants, and shopping are all within walking distance.
To explore the wider island try a Circle-Island bus tour or 4X4 day trip. You'll get to go off the beaten path and see the island's lush green interior. Otherwise why not take to the water and hire a motorboat or yacht charter, or for the more active an outrigger canoe tour from Matavai Bay. A helicopter tour will give you an amazing bird's eye view of the island.
Important Information
Disclaimer: ^ You must be a member of the Qantas Frequent Flyer program to earn and redeem Qantas Points. A joining fee may apply. Membership and Qantas Points are subject to the Qantas Frequent Flyer program terms and conditions.
Disclaimer: ** Prices are per room, per night and vary depending on date of check in, length of stay and room type. Conditions apply.
Disclaimer: ~ Qantas activities are provided by Viator. Conditions apply.


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For all too long, firefighting in America has been the sole monopoly of government, usually organized at the very local level of cities and communities and often relying on volunteers. While firefighting serves the community, this public stranglehold needs to be broken for a variety of reasons.
First, firefighting is largely funded from taxes, raised from the already over-taxed American population, with much of the rest coming from bake sales. Second, there is no reason to assume that the government is better or more efficient at putting out fires than the private sector would be — if only given a chance. Third, private initiative and competition, as we all know, reduce costs, provide choice, and are American. Believe me, we need some real change here.
America should invite the private sector to set up competing, for-profit fire companies. It should rid itself entirely of tax-funded, government-controlled, and often volunteer-staffed public firefighting, as a way to lower taxes. Instead of a public firefighting system, consumers should have a choice between various private companies with whom they would contract for a fee to get fire protection.
Under this sensible plan, consumers would also have the choice between various plans — e.g., do they want to have fires put out in their homes alone, or also, and for an extra fee, in their garages?
They could let market forces affect their choice, but also ideology. Liberals could opt for the liberal firefighting company, while conservatives could opt for the conservative firefighting company. Fire companies could also be affiliated with religions and other interests. There would thus be a lot of healthy choices.
Since these for-profit companies would have to be able to make money, government regulations should be put in place by Congress to allow them to protect their financial interests, especially those of their shareholders and CEOs.
For instance, they should be able to reject prospective members on the basis of pre-existing conditions, say, a "bad" chimney or, worse still, "questionable" wiring. They should also be allowed to reject prospective members because they live in locations that are more difficult to reach, for instance on a one-way street. Or because they live in a two-story house.
These consumers, of course, would usually still be able to try to get firefighting coverage for an additional fee. But in the end, it would be up to the firefighting company to accept or deny coverage to "high-risk" prospective members.
These companies should of course be allowed to terminate coverage for, say, a second fire in a year or for illegally built additions, however small. Thus, these companies would be able to protect themselves financially, and keep the "profit" in "for-profit." That is also the reason the public volunteer firefighters would have to go: They do not allow for a level competitive field.
For all too long, here in America we have tolerated the government-controlled and tax-funded public system of firefighting. Not surprisingly, it finds close parallels to firefighting systems in Communist countries such as Switzerland and Holland. There as well as here, the "public option" is the only option.
That is not the American way. We should break the tax-funded stranglehold of government on the business of firefighting and instead let the free market reign and let healthy competition reduce costs for everybody. (Well, at least those who can pay — but, hey, lower taxes for everybody.)
In short, we should model the future of American firefighting on the current American health-care system. And keep our government out of the business of putting out fires.


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Science is not going to lose the news cycle to religion so easily! Barely a day after the Catholic Church announced it had found its new Pope (hello there, Francis I!), nuclear physicists at CERN revealed that they have indeed found the God Particle. No, like, for real this time. Swear to. . . science.
What is the God Particle? Is it. . . a one-lunged Argentine with a passion for social justice? No? CBS News clarifies that the body in question is a:
subatomic particle predicted nearly a half-century ago, which will go a long way toward explaining what gives electrons and all matter in the universe size and shape. The elusive particle, called a Higgs boson, was predicted in 1964 to help fill in our understanding of the creation of the universe, which many theorize occurred in a massive explosion known as the Big Bang.
Unarguably very interesting! But if physics loses headlines to faith, it is almost certainly an issue of lackluster branding rather than content.
First of all, CERN announced its finding in a statement. Boo! In contrast, the Church announced its news by publicly teasing the process out for weeks and then using literal smoke signals to reveal that a leaders had been selected. The faithful gathered in Vatican City and cheered when Catholic wizards in robes chanted mysterious and melodic phrases in Latin before finally—finally— revealing the glorious new pontiff.
Meanwhile, the nerds at CERN—Cerds?—were like, "The preliminary results with the full 2012 data set are magnificent and to me it is clear that we are dealing with a Higgs boson, though we still have a long way to go to know what kind of Higgs boson it is." At this point, science's only trump card would be to announce that in a shocking twist, the Higgs boson has turned out to be. . . Pope Francis I!
See also: a slide show inside CERN!


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That phrase is what I heard most from people today. This was my last week of teaching at TYO and it was a happy, sad, emotional, amazing week with my kids and women. I will never forget them and our time together. It's fair to say that they taught me more than I taught them. I'm finding it difficult to express in words what they've done for me, so check out the photos that tell our story below.
– Megan is a summer program intern at TYO
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: arts and crafts, children, experiential learning, nablus, Palestine, Reflection, women's nutrition | 2 Comments »


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40's Need a Fix
40's Need a Fix
I feel your pain, but we all need to accept that TM is guided by achieving financial stability and long term success. Right now, profitability through sales of 85s has to come first. The 40s don't have much longer to wait. Demanding a refund is counter-productive. I'm a 60kwh who reserved 9/2011. My latest window is mid-march. I wait while relative new comers with 85s get their cars. I'm impatient too, but it makes sense.
When Tesla first announced that 85 kWh models would be delivered first, I was a bit disappointed while considering a 60 kWh Model S. But it was a brilliant move by Tesla to have 100% of the first drivers enjoying maximum range. If customers were running out of power, it wouldn't read well in the press.
What it did for me is to encourage buying the 85 kWh Model S. A non-stop trip from Vegas to Barstow last month during freezing weather required the largest battery. I was pleased to have the extra range to make it possible.
That's all good if you are one of the lucky ones to afford the bigger battery, but the point is that there are some 40kWh reservationist who have taken more risk and supported Tesla in the early days with their deposits only to have "noobs" enjoy the spoils. The 40kWh battery has already been delayed twice before. It may make good business sense but at this point, there aren't that may 40kWh customers out there (less than 10%) to make a big financial impact to the company. They should be shown some appreciation for their sacrafice as well.
The minority should be treated with the same respect as the majority.
I can see both sides of the argument. I know that Telsa really has to make money now to survive and flourish. At the same time, I can understand the impatience of those that have to wait.
Sometimes, a personal note of appreciation or regret can help make things "slightly" better. Or else, it can come across as lack or respect or care or concern. Refunding money will not happen as Tesla needs the money. And the wait seems unfair as everyone stood in the same line till Telsa decided to create different lines for some.
~ Prash.
If I were a 40kwH holder I would by disappointed as well - to say the very least. Why don't you guys send an email to George Blankenship - all of you - to express your frustration. At the very least you should not have to learn about another delay from an investor conference call. This should have been communicated directly to you via email or whatever.
It's about unit production cost. Listen to the Q4 call. It is clear that unit production cost during the ramp was very high, and is probably still fairly high.
This means the margin per car was low or negative. It would have been more deeply negative with the 40kWh model. Tesla needs to protect its cash position and get to profitability. A lot is riding on that. It helps nobody if the company runs out of cash, not even the 40 kWh buyers.
As they control production cost, they will be able to make 40s without losing money.
Look at the bright side. Your 40 will come from a much better production line with more experienced workers, fewer quality issues, and most of the kinks worked out.
Gross margin went up from -17% (they were losing money on the cars they built in Q3) to 8%, which is still incredibly low given all the overhead they have, to say nothing of recovering the R&D costs. Presumably, their margin on the battery is much better than the rest of the car, and Q4 didn't include any 60kWh cars. So, they are already going to have to absorb lower-margin 60s into the Q1 cash flow.
I agree with @danielccc - they *have* to get to even on a cash-flow basis this quarter -- they cannot afford to have to sell more stock to finance operations. If that means they have to postpone the 40kWh cars to do it, then so be it (yes, I say that as someone who has my 85kWh car).
Put another way -- if the alternative were to delay the 40kWh or go up on the price to where the gross margin was the same as the 60kWh battery, which would you prefer?
I understand being frustrated about not having your car - every day I waited for mine was painful. But the company must be able to start paying its own way to achieve the grand plan of mass-market EVs for everyone, or it won't be around to do it for anyone.
i made the same supposition in another thread; lower margins, production efficiencies, etc... But do we really believe going to production on the 40kWh (maybe just over 1000 units total) 2 months earlier is going to break the bank? Tesla is already cash flow positive and that will only improve thru March. If we follow this logic, how efficient will they need to be to break even on the 40kWh? and more importantly, how long will it take to get there? It would be very difficult to predict when you will reach a target efficiency so Tesla could conceivably take another six months before it "makes sense" to produce the 40kWh. Unfortunately, we seemed to have signed an open-ended contract with a $5K carrot. Being in that position doesn't instill a lot of trust or good will. '
They made a promise, we backed them. It's not our fault they haven't gotten into the black on 40kWh production, but I don't think it would kill them to bite the bullet, take a few lumps for their miscalculation and make their loyal customers whole.
for reference to above, I calculate that they would only produce about 150 40kWh cars /month given the percentage of total reservations. How much would Tesla really lose on 150 cars/month?
I think you're missing the importance of the quarterly performance numbers. TM is committed to hitting a home run in 2013,Q1. Its in all of our best interests for them to do so. Remember, the car isn't going to matter so much if the company can't maintain longterm health. We need this baby to get some early nourishment. I get that a lot of the 40s are early adopters and a lot of good press on TM early on was (and continues) touting the initial price point. Still, as critical as the 40s are, you really gotta be patient. A letter from George - better overall communication, for sure.
I think it is easy for us non-40kwh holders to talk about the "best" for Tesla. And yes, they want and need to hit a home run on their Q1 financials - I sure hope they do because I bought more shares this morning:-)
It does however not change the fact that the 40kwh holders are terribly disappointed and so would you if you were in their shoes. They just want their cars!
Dear 40kWh Reservation Holders,
Sorry, waiting is no fun, waiting for your "S" is less than no fun. I have a question and it is one I considered. If TM allowed it, would you upgrade your battery, if this meant receiving your 'S' a couple of months sooner?
When I was waiting on my 60kWh, I seriously considered calling TM to step up to an 85 because I was incensed that reservations that were 6K higher than mine were taking delivery. Ultimately, I decided to deal with my disappointment and wait semi-patiently. I received my 60 and I can honestly say the reality exceeds my fantasy! Even the standard white paint is drop dead gorgeous. I am a happy camper but I feel for "Teslites" ('S' owners with 40 and 60kWh batteries) that had/have to wait longer than they want to.
Please be patient, it will be worth it
Thanks to Mark K for some very good comments that reflect my own ideas. I am an early adopter (#3702). Right now I am getting asked daily when I am getting my car and Tesla is looking worse with each further delay. Some form of compensation for my 3 year/interest free loan would be appreciated.
@petero - 60 is really more car than I need, but yes we are doing the financial calculation to see if we can make that work. I am not expecting a discount, but I really don't want to pay the price increase. Also I would have to forgo some of the options I had hoped for.
And finally, as much as I get that Tesla has to get up and running, I resent higher end owners who have their cars telling me to be patient because Tesla can't afford to make good on its promise to me. That is in Tesla's interest not to make good on its promise. If that is the case, Tesla shouldn't have made it in the first place.
Simply put, there was no way for Tesla to absorb the cost of retooling for the 40s in Q4. I was originally a 40 and upgraded to a 60, but am still waiting as well. That said, Tesla needs to hire a small team to focus entirely on communications. It would be a tiny investment with huge dividends.
I am siding the the 40s. I have my 60 and I was ready to raise hell if they delayed it. The 40s (all 150 of them) should rightly be vocal about the push back. I get that Tesla really needs to make that margin I do. I think one of the other reasons for such a low demand for the 40 is the continuos delay on it.
@syddent - it is hard to know three years in advance whether the promise can be made or not. For example, saying the base car would be under $60k after tax credit. Yet, if they didn't say these things, we wouldn't be here today because nobody would have given them any money if they said "well, we hope to produce a great car, but we don't know exactly when it will ship, how much it will cost or what features it will have".
So, they said it would ship in 2011. When I placed a reservation on a LEAF in April 2010 and finalized the order for it in August 2011, it was because I thought Tesla was unlikely to hit that date, plus with everyone in front of me I didn't think I would get it until 2013 (which turned out to be correct, if only by a few days). Likewise with other aspects -- they made bold statements, then worked like crazy to make them reality. Sure, they didn't hit everything, but personally they met more than I expected, and more importantly the car itself is far better than I expected.
I really do understand how frustrating it is to have put your money down years ago and wondering when you will ever get your car, and I think Tesla should find some way to make those that put down reservations long ago happy (such as maybe some discount to upgrade to a 60 that gives better gross margin than selling a 40, plus avoiding the setup costs of tooling up for 40kWh batteries and all the software testing that will go with that), but only in a way that doesn't compromise the company's ability to meet its goals.
Imagine if you ordered 40kwh plus standard suspension. You probably will be the last in line. I believed two factors play big part of your deliver date. Battery size (85 >60>40)and suspension option (air > std). So far no update on when standard suspension will enter their production. I guess we just have to wait.
ChaseF +1 and email@example.com +1
I would seriously consider upgrading to a 60kWh if Tesla gave me a price discount to do it. This could be offered only to a select group of 40kWh reservation holders, perhaps to those who reserved over 2.5 years ago. Tesla would make a slightly higher margin than they might on a 40kWh and I would get my car sooner, a win-win. But if Tesla does not offer this, they should offer the 40kWh'ers something. So far I have a free hat and a plastic toy car for my $5,000 40kWH reservation made in 11/2009. --P1399
I called about the status of my 40, and it's 4 to 6 months out. I also asked about going to the 60, waiting an a call back.
@Brian10, at least you have a cool hat and toy car! I only have the card with my name and reservation sequence number on it.
The toy car is probably in the trash but you can have my damn hat if you can figure out a way to get Tesla to deliver on their promises and begin production of the 40kWh.
One thing I see left out of the equation is that Most who either have their 85kw cars or who can afford an 85kw car are preaching from a "high horse" with questions like "well why not just upgrade to a 60 or 85kw pack etc.
Has it occurred to anyone that many 40kw buyers pushed to their finances close to edge to get it and don't have a spare liquid 10 or 20k sitting around purchase a car. It may push a large number of those customers out the door, with a bitter taste in their mouth.
While the decision to stretch ones finances to purchase a car "is debatable" but Tesla said they would build it and they should build it. They could have known how the 40's would affect margin and I for one would assume that the 40kw cars and their associated "lower margins" were already baked into the cake.
It's beginning to look like Tesla merely offered a 40kw option to advertise the 49k price point secretly hoping there would be minimal if any takers. Okay perhaps there is no "conspiracy theory"
But perhaps a lack of financial planning for margin drains they already knew were in the pipeline.
Aside from unit margin differences, what TM had to rely on in the push was experience. All the Signatures were 85s, and continuing that string was the path of least screw-ups -- which they had no time to absorb. Now that the 60s are out, there has been one "pass" through that gauntlet. And they know what it will take to do it again. Keep in mind that there are more differences between a 40 and 60 than 60 and 85.
Given the need/plans to produce "variants" (and battery variants within each, one presumes), this is necessary "training". But its easiness and smoothness should not be taken for granted.
I note that many take syddent's POV that "[it] That is in Tesla's interest not to make good on its promise. If that is the case, Tesla shouldn't have made it in the first place." Assumes what is surely false: that TM kew it couldn't get the 40s out that quickly, and would delay delivery. All promises are subject to the caveat, "The Lord willin' an' the crik don't rise," however. Prediction is hard, especially about the future. TM was sideswiped by various events and factors. Its bounce-back has been strong, but not perfect. Probably there have been many "hits" it took and survived which we know nothing of.
IAC, it CERTAINLY did not conspire to relieve 40s reservers of their $10 million or so in deposits. In the big picture, that's chump change.
typo copy/paste error: that "[it] is in Tesla's interest..."
Chuck Lusin - what is your reservation number?
Here is what helps me with the wait (I am P3056 - reserved in 2/2011):
1.) I can save more money for the down payment. I am (have been) saving an estimated car payment monthly.
2.) The 40's may benefit from new hardware enhancements implemented on the line (4G capability, center console improvements, vanity lights, "oh hell" handles, maybe...). Less time later having to go back and forth to the service center.
What would help calm me further is knowing that the 40kWh battery has been certified by the EPA. That milestone would go a long way with me. At this point, I don't know if there is a functionality obstacle or is it purely a financial reason for the delay.
I haven't called Telsa since making the reservation but I feel the need. If someone is willing to compose a letter on behalf of 40s to Tesla I would support it.
-George V
Hi George,
@Brian H,
What references are you siting to get that the differences between the 40 to 60 are greater than the 60 to 85? IMO I believe that the 40 battery would be an easier design (simply by reducing the 60 by 50%), that to have a completely different design on the standard suspension, which is also computer controlled.
I just got off the phone with Tesla, I wanted confirmation that the 40s have been delayed. I was told by the configuration guy that the build schedule now seems to be standard suspension in March, followed by multi-coat paint and then the 40KWh batteries in late spring to early summer.
I was shocked to hear this, since it was brushed over in the financial statements so lightly.
We could be waiting until June for 40KWh cars to roll off the line. He said that the battery pack is being re-designed not just removing cells, which is going to take more time. Makes you wonder how they could have ever thought/promised these back in November/December.
I really feel like my arm is being twisted while they dangle this more expensive carrot out in front trying to get me to upgrade.
I am not wearing a tin hat and I don't believe in conspiracies. I don't believe Tesla is so cynical as to pull a true "bait and switch". That being said, at some point Tesla should responsibly evaluate when cars will get online. I am finding the excuse that the company has to be stable before it meets its contractual obligations remarkably hollow with each delay. If I hired a contractor to do work for me and that work was delayed repeatedly in favor of higher paying contracts, I would have a very good case in small claims for any deposit I made.
@cmeyers - if the battery pack is being redesigned, it is possible that they encountered problems in testing. In particular, the amount of current that the battery can produce or accept (for regen braking or charging) is proportional to the number of cells. I assume that is the reason for reduced performance of the 40 vs the 60 vs 85, for example.
So, they may well have found that actual measurements of simply using fewer cells proved to be inadequate, and they are having to change to use more cells.
This is just a guess anyway.
Yes, this is very similar to what I heard today, except that I was told for the 40Kwh batteries, the delivery would by 4 to 6 months from today, so closer to July, and that date might be good for Dave75, who has been waiting since 3/26/2009. Plus, if they keep letting the 60 and 85 jump in line, it will take even longer. Just wait until a model X gets done before the 40's.
Cmeyers. Enlighten me. Did TM approach you to upgrade to a larger battery to speed up delivery?
TM never contacted me to upgrade from a 60 to an 85! As a matter of fact TM, hardly ever contacted me - until my "S" was in Los Angeles and would I like to swing by and pick it up or have it delivered. I am not sure the 40kWh battery has been certified yet, so how can they sell them?
Yes, that is the problem, no 40kWh cars are in production, and they have been delayed for a third time, for now a total of over 6 months.
@petero - I called them, regardless I am stating how it feels to me to be "on the hook" for so long and they keep moving the end date. They did say that would give me a full refund though which is a nice consideration considering how the contract we signed it totally written in favor of Tesla.
Tesla doesn't have to wait for EPA to build a 40, they just build a run of them and hand one over to the EPA. It is what it is and Tesla will sell it regardless of the EPA range ratings. They even stated that the EPA testing is rather quick.
@cmeyers - Interesting. When I spoke to a representative on the delivery information line today, I asked if I could get my deposit back and walk away. He said he would check on that and get back to me by the end of next week. I would very much like to get off this ride. Tesla's had my $5,000 deposit for almost 4 years now. I think I'd sleep better with that money back in my bank account. Are you going to pull out or wait it out?
Two suggestions for TM:
(a) If there are only 150 or so 40kWh orders, use the small scale as an opportunity to over communicate. These folks are bridge between the premium market and the Gen III car. Make them feel good about early adoption and a very long wait. Let them know TM appreciates them.
(b) Delight them on delivery. Use the time to find ways to exceed published specs on the delivered 40 kWh vehicles, as the supply chain and components improve. A tad more range, a little more acceleration?
@defmonk - thanks for suggestions above. I've seen the ~150 count of 40kWh reservations in other posts. I'm curious where that number came from. On the investor call Elon said ~10% of the reservations were for the 40kWh battery. If there are about 15K US reservations left to fill, that would equate to ~1,500 customers waiting for the 40kWh car.
Long term, tesla is only getting less than 10% (survey by me says 8%). Moving the perduction on 8% percent of cars that bring in less money is not good for a company that is trying to post a profit. I would think Tesla is going to shock people with the profit, than continue with the same profit in Q2 because of trying to get all options rolling. They are probally posting a profit this quarter because each person is putting on average 12k-15k extra of options. I expect revenues of 412 million and EPS of 25 - 50 cents a share. based on what they have stated wall street in for a surprise!! they estimate Q1 EPS at (17)... I bought more shares today, couldn't resist
I find it odd that the Model S 40 Kwh battery is not available, since Tesla is providing Toyota with a 40 Kwh battery system for the RAV-4 EV. Different design perhaps, but still...
I thnk the sales of the 40Kwh would be higher if they were actually selling them.
Even for my 40, the out the door total is $69,539.46, which is more than three times the final price of my last car. And later hearing that yearly maintenance is also required, on the car that only need the wiper fluid topped off. We have been strung along, and delayed. I'll have to drive the S for close to 225,000 miles to break even with my old ICE car.
Still pushing the "only the wiper fluid" wheeze, huh? Sure hope you get your refund soon.
This may be scant consolation to some of you, but I feel the need to say it nonetheless.
I know waiting for the 40kWh is frustrating, especially when many of you have helped Tesla survive the last few years via your deposits. However... I would argue that waiting for a right hand drive Model S is even more frustrating, especially when you have been a reservation holder from day one. Yes, we RHD-ers are a minority of the total reservation backlog; yes, the car requires some re-engineering versus the standard LHD models; yes, we aren't resident in Tesla's home market. But it is fair that we get our cars a year and a half after they first went on sale? I reserved my non-sig car in early 2009, and it looks like I may not get it until 2014.
I'm sure Tesla could speed up the 40kWh or the RHD cars if they wanted to. I'm not so sure that this is the right business decision for them today. With perfect hindsight I would have put my £x000s into IPO shares rather than a reservation, but Tesla was always going to be a risky enterprise and I knew the deposit was refundable ;-)
So I'll have to stay sitting here, reading forums, looking at pictures and dreaming of my new seat for 2014!
Good commentary from everyone.
@tshsock - the 150 number may have been started by my earlier post in this thread. It was my estimate of monthly throughput for the 40kWh
Thanks for the support from those 60 and 85 kWh owners that have sympathized with the 40kWh reservationist. I agree that it is insensitive to preach "shut up and wait, it's what's best for the company" when your car is already delivered or on the way.
@Chuck L - 4 to 6 months is an even longer delay that I thought. I was thinking May-June were still good estimates. Given this much of a delay, Tesla definitely has an obligation to reach out and address this with the 40kWh folks. In hindsight, it was pretty wimpy to announce this the way they did. Surely they understood how this would effect us. To not get out in front of this is another promise from George B. not realized (better communication).
I need a few more days to weigh my options.
Another helpful action would be a quasi-technical letter of explanation of the delay sent to all reservation holders. "We're having difficulty keeping the framblitzers from over-caspignating during hard deceleration. Our engineers are coring their pumpkins to find a solution. If they can find one before their mortality rate gets too high, we will begin making these dang 40kWh batteries right away."
Tesla needs in a big way, a excellent PR team......
Tesla trying to max out it's profitability is fine but Their margins are NOT the customers job to worry about. They said "X" and they need to deliver "X" or take the associated lump and bad press that's no doubt coming surrounding the 40kw cars. Broder and many like him are still out there.
Do you really believe the 40kWh model will be produced? What makes what you read more than just an assumption? The demand is not there. It will cost them more to produce the 40kWh model than they will ever recover. Why do you possible believe they keep delaying?They simply have used the 40kWh entry price to lure customers in, advised them the 40kWh is going to be delayed and customers would need to upgrade to get a Tesla now. The real reason - PROFIT. It has helped them achieve the profits needed quickly. This looks as high tech in advertising as the Tesla S is in cars with the exception its against the LAW! That's sales method is referred as bait and switch and Tesla is not immune. A class action lawsuit for this behavior might get Tesla's attention.
The original reservation I made 7/20/09 says in the priority clause "Tesla will establish the Model S production sequence according to the order in which payment and signed reservation agreements are received. Note that there will be a Founder Series and a Signature Series that will prelude the regular production". Those models have been completed. Tesla has produced 4000+ cars. My reservation number P1020. Nothing else is said about a delay may be experienced due to the Model S selected.