South from Granada: Seven Years in an Andalusian Village is an autobiographical book by Gerald Brenan, first published in 1957.

Brenan, a fringe member of the Bloomsbury Group, moved to Spain in 1919 and lived there on and off for the rest of his life. The book is an example of travel literature, mixing an autobiographical account of his life in Yegen, the village where he found his first home in Spain, with detailed background information about the Alpujarras region of Andalusia. He describes visits to his home by Virginia Woolf, Lytton Strachey, and Dora Carrington.

Film version
South from Granada has been adapted into a film, Al sur de Granada (2003), directed by Fernando Colomo.  The film includes some biographical material not in the original book.

References

English non-fiction books
1957 non-fiction books
British biographies
Books about Spain
Books about writers
Hamish Hamilton books

South from Granada


ជម្រើសអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ ( គឺជាទ្រឹស្ដីមួយក្នុងមុខវិជ្ជាសិក្សាអំពីមីក្រូសេដ្ឋកិច្ចដែលទាក់ទងនឹងចំណង់ចំណូលចិត្តលើការទិញប្រើប្រាស់ទំនិញនិងសេវាកម្មណាមួយ  to consumption expenditures and ultimately to consumer demand curves. The link between personal preferences, consumption, and the demand curve is one of the most closely studied relations in economics. Consumer choice theory is a way of analyzing how consumers may achieve equilibrium between preferences and expenditures by maximizing utility as subject to consumer budget constraints.

Preferences are the desires by each individual for the consumption of goods and services that translate into choices based on  income or wealth for purchases of goods and services to be combined with the consumer's time to define consumption activities.

ការប្រើប្រាស់ត្រូវបានបំបែកចេញពីការផលិតដោយហេតុផលដោយសារតែអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ពីរផ្សេងគ្នាបានចូលរួម។ ក្នុងករណីដំបូងការប្រើប្រាស់គឺដោយបុគ្គលចម្បង; ក្នុងករណីទី 2 ផលិតករអាចបង្កើតអ្វីមួយដែលគាត់នឹងមិនប្រើប្រាស់ខ្លួនឯង។ ដូច្នេះ ការលើកទឹកចិត្ត និងសមត្ថភាពផ្សេងៗគ្នាត្រូវបានចូលរួម។

The models that make up consumer theory are used to represent prospectively observable demand patterns for an individual buyer on the hypothesis of constrained optimization.

អថេរលេចធ្លោដែលប្រើដើម្បីពន្យល់ពីអត្រាដែលទំនិញត្រូវបានទិញ (ទាមទារ) គឺជាតម្លៃក្នុងមួយឯកតានៃទំនិញនោះ តម្លៃនៃទំនិញដែលពាក់ព័ន្ធ និងទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់។

The fundamental theorem of demand states that the rate of consumption falls as the price of the good rises. This is called the substitution effect. Clearly if one does not have enough money to pay the price then they cannot buy any of that item. As prices rise, consumers will substitute away from higher priced goods and services, choosing less costly alternatives. Subsequently, as the wealth of the individual rises, demand increases, shifting the demand curve higher at all rates of consumption. This is called the income effect. As wealth rises, consumers will substitute away from less costly inferior goods and services, choosing higher priced alternatives.

Model setup

Economists' modern solution to the problem of mapping consumer choices is indifference curve analysis. For an individual, indifference curves and an assumption of constant prices and a fixed income in a two-good world will give the following diagram.  The consumer can choose any point on or below the budget constraint line BC.  This line is diagonal since it comes from the equation .
In other words, the amount spent on both goods together is less than or equal to the income of the consumer.  The consumer will choose the indifference curve with the highest utility that is within his budget constraint.  Every point on I3 is outside his budget constraint so the best that he can do is the single point on I2 that is tangent to his budget constraint.  He will purchase X* of good X and Y* of good Y.

Indifference curve analysis begins with the utility function. The utility function is treated as an index of utility. All that is necessary is that the utility index change as more preferred bundles are consumed. Indifference curves are typically numbered with the number increasing as more preferred bundles are consumed. However, it is not necessary that numbers be used - any indexing system would suffice - colors for example. The advantage of numbers is that their use makes the math simpler. Numbers used to index indifference curves have no cardinal significance. For example if three indifference curves are labeled 1, 4, and 16 respectively that means nothing more than the bundles "on" indifference curve 4 are more preferred than the bundles "on" indifference curve I. The fact that the index number is a multiple of another is of no significance. For example, the bundles of good on 4 does not mean that they are four times more satisfying than those on 1. As noted they merely mean they are more satisfying.

ឥទ្ធិពលនៃប្រាក់ចំណូល និងឥទ្ធិពលតម្លៃ ដោះស្រាយជាមួយនឹងរបៀបដែលការផ្លាស់ប្តូរតម្លៃនៃទំនិញផ្លាស់ប្តូរការប្រើប្រាស់របស់ល្អ។ ទ្រឹស្ដីនៃជម្រើសអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ពិនិត្យមើលការដោះដូរ និងការសម្រេចចិត្តដែលមនុស្សធ្វើក្នុងតួនាទីរបស់ពួកគេជាអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ នៅពេលតម្លៃ និងការផ្លាស់ប្តូរប្រាក់ចំណូលរបស់ពួកគេ។

Substitution effect

ឥទ្ធិពលជំនួសគឺជាឥទ្ធិពលដែលសង្កេតឃើញជាមួយនឹងការផ្លាស់ប្តូរតម្លៃទំនិញដែលទាក់ទង។ ឥទ្ធិពលនេះជះឥទ្ធិពលជាមូលដ្ឋានទៅលើចលនានៅតាមបណ្តោយខ្សែកោង។

These curves can be used to predict the effect of changes to the budget constraint. The graphic below shows the effect of a price increase for good Y.  If the price of Y increases, the budget constraint will pivot from BC2 to BC1.  Notice that because the price of X does not change, the consumer can still buy the same amount of X if he or she chooses to buy only good X. On the other hand, if the consumer chooses to buy only good Y, he or she will be able to buy less of good Y because its price has increased.

To maximize the utility with the reduced budget constraint, BC1, the consumer will re-allocate consumption to reach the highest available indifference curve which  BC1 is tangent to. As shown on the diagram below, that curve is I1, and therefore the amount of good Y bought will shift from Y2 to Y1, and the amount of good X bought to shift from X2 to X1. The opposite effect will occur if the price of Y decreases causing the shift from BC2 to BC3, and I2 to I3.

ប្រសិនបើខ្សែកោងទាំងនេះត្រូវបានគ្រោងសម្រាប់តម្លៃ Y ល្អខុសៗគ្នា ខ្សែកោងតម្រូវការសម្រាប់ Y ល្អអាចត្រូវបានសាងសង់។ ដ្យាក្រាមខាងក្រោមបង្ហាញពីខ្សែកោងតម្រូវការសម្រាប់ Y ដ៏ល្អ ដោយសារតម្លៃរបស់វាប្រែប្រួល។ ជាជម្រើស ប្រសិនបើតម្លៃ Y ល្អត្រូវបានជួសជុល ហើយតម្លៃសម្រាប់ X ល្អមានភាពខុសប្លែកគ្នា ខ្សែកោងតម្រូវការសម្រាប់ X ល្អអាចត្រូវបានសាងសង់។

Income effect

Another important item that can change is the money income of the consumer.  The income effect is the phenomenon observed through changes in purchasing power. It reveals the change in quantity demanded brought by a change in real income (utility).
Graphically, as long as the prices remain constant, changing the income will create a parallel shift of the budget constraint. Increasing the income will shift the budget constraint right since more of both can be bought, and decreasing income will shift it left.

Depending on the indifference curves, as income increases, the amount purchased of a good can either increase, decrease or stay the same.  In the diagram below, good Y is a normal good since the amount purchased increased as the budget constraint shifted from BC1 to the higher income BC2.  Good X is an inferior good since the amount bought decreased as the income increases.

 is the change in the demand for good 1 when we change income from  to , holding the price of good 1 fixed at :

Price effect as sum of substitution and income effects

រាល់ការផ្លាស់ប្តូរតម្លៃអាចត្រូវបានបំបែកទៅជាឥទ្ធិពលចំណូល និងឥទ្ធិពលជំនួស។ ឥទ្ធិពលតម្លៃគឺជាផលបូកនៃការជំនួស និងផលប៉ះពាល់នៃប្រាក់ចំណូល។

ឥទ្ធិពលនៃការជំនួសគឺជាការផ្លាស់ប្តូរតម្លៃដែលផ្លាស់ប្តូរជម្រាលនៃឧបសគ្គថវិកា ប៉ុន្តែទុកឱ្យអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់នៅលើខ្សែកោងព្រងើយកណ្តើយដូចគ្នា។ ម្យ៉ាងវិញទៀត វាបង្ហាញពីកញ្ចប់ប្រើប្រាស់ថ្មីរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ បន្ទាប់ពីការផ្លាស់ប្តូរតម្លៃខណៈពេលដែលត្រូវបានផ្តល់សំណង ដើម្បីអនុញ្ញាតឱ្យអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់សប្បាយចិត្តដូចពីមុន។ ដោយឥទ្ធិពលនេះ អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ត្រូវបានជំនួសដោយរបស់ល្អ ដែលមានតម្លៃទាបជាងប្រៀបធៀប។ នៅក្នុងរូបភាពខាងក្រោម នេះត្រូវគ្នាទៅនឹងឧបសគ្គថវិកាដែលស្រមើលស្រមៃដែលបង្ហាញថា SC មានភាពលំអៀងទៅនឹងខ្សែកោងព្រងើយកណ្តើយ I1។

If the good in question is a normal good, then the income effect from the rise in purchasing power from a price fall reinforces the substitution effect.  If the good is an inferior good, then the income effect will offset in some degree the substitution effect.  If the income effect for an inferior good is sufficiently strong, the consumer will buy less of the good when it becomes less expensive, a Giffen good (commonly believed to be a rarity).

In the figure, the substitution effect, , is the change in the amount demanded for  when the price of good   falls from  to  (increasing purchasing power for ) and, at the same time, the money income falls from  to  to keep the consumer at the same level of utility on :

The substitution effect increases the amount demanded of good  from  to . In the example, the income effect of the price fall in  partly offsets the substitution effect as the amount demanded of   goes from  to . Thus, the price effect is the algebraic sum of the substitution effect and the income effect.

ការសន្មត់
The behavioral assumption of consumer theory is that all consumers are rational decision makers who seek to maximize utility. More specifically, in the eyes of economists, all consumers seek to maximize a utility function subject to a budgetary constraint. In other words, economists assume that consumers will always choose the "best" bundle of goods they can afford. Consumer theory is therefore based around the problem of generate refutable hypotheses about the nature of consumer demand from this behavioral postulate. In order to reason from the central postulate towards a useful model of consumer choice, it is necessary to make additional assumptions about the certain preferences that consumers employ when selecting their preferred "bundle" of goods. These are relatively strict, allowing for the model to generate more useful hypotheses with regard to consumer behaviour than weaker assumptions, which would allow any empirical data to be explained in terms of stupidity, ignorance, or some other factor, and hence would not be able to generate any predictions about future demand at all. For the most part, however, they represent statements which would only be contradicted if a consumer was acting in (what was widely regarded as) a strange manner. In this vein, the modern form of consumer choice theory assumes:

Preferences are complete
Consumer choice theory is based on the assumption that the consumer fully understands his or her own preferences, allowing for a simple but accurate comparison between any two bundles of good presented. That is to say, it is assumed that if a consumer is presented with two consumption bundles A and B each containing different combinations of n goods, the consumer can unambiguously decide if (s)he prefers A to B, B to A, or is indifferent to both. The few scenarios where it is possible to imagine that decision-making would be very difficult are thus placed "outside the domain of economic analysis".

Preferences are reflexive
Means that if A and B are in all respect identical the consumer will consider a to be at least as good as (is weakly preferred) to B. Alternatively, the axiom can be modified to read that the consumer is indifferent with regard to A and B.
Preference are transitive
If A is preferred to B and B is preferred to C then A must be preferred to C.
This also means that if the consumer is indifferent between A and B and is indifferent between B and C she will be indifferent between A and C.
This is the consistency assumption. This assumption eliminates the possibility of intersecting indifference curves.
Preferences exhibit non-satiation
This is the "more is always better" assumption; that in general if a consumer is offered two almost identical bundles A and B, but where B includes more of one particular good, the consumer will choose B.
Among other things this assumption precludes circular indifference curves. Non-satiation in this sense is not a necessary but a convenient assumption. It avoids unnecessary complications in the mathematical models.
Indifference Curves exhibit diminishing marginal rates of substitution
This assumption assures that indifference curves are smooth and convex to the origin.
This assumption is implicit in the last assumption.
This assumption also set the stage for using techniques of constrained optimization. Because the shape of the curve assures that the first derivative is negative and the second is positive.
The MRS tells how much y a person is willing to sacrifice to get one more unit of x.
This assumption incorporates the theory of diminishing marginal utility.
The primary reason to have these technical preferences is to replicate the properties of the real number system so the math will work.
Goods are available in all quantities
It is assumed that a consumer may choose to purchase any quantity of a good (s)he desires, for example, 2.6 eggs and 4.23 loaves of bread. Whilst this makes the model less precise, it is generally acknowledged to provide a useful simplification to the calculations involved in consumer choice theory, especially since consumer demand is often examined over a considerable period of time. The more spending rounds are offered, the better approximation the continuous, differentiable function is for its discrete counterpart. (Whilst the purchase of 2.6 eggs sounds impossible, an average consumption of 2.6 eggs per day over a month does not.)

ចំណាំការសន្មត់មិនធានាថាខ្សែកោងតម្រូវការនឹងមានជម្រាលអវិជ្ជមានទេ។ ខ្សែកោងចំណោតវិជ្ជមានគឺមិនស៊ីគ្នានឹងការសន្មត់ទេ។

ប្រើតម្លៃ
In Marx's critique of political economy, any labor-product has a value and a use value, and if it is traded as a commodity in markets, it additionally has an exchange value, most often expressed as a money-price. Marx acknowledges that commodities being traded also have a general utility, implied by the fact that people want them, but he argues that this by itself tells us nothing about the specific character of the economy in which they are produced and sold.

Labor-leisure tradeoff

ទ្រឹស្ដីអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ក៏អាចត្រូវបានប្រើដើម្បីវិភាគជម្រើសរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់រវាងការលំហែ និងកម្លាំងពលកម្ម។ ការលំហែត្រូវបានចាត់ទុកថាល្អមួយ (ជារឿយៗដាក់លើអ័ក្សផ្តេក) ហើយការប្រើប្រាស់ត្រូវបានចាត់ទុកថាល្អផ្សេងទៀត។ ដោយសារអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់មានពេលវេលាកំណត់ និងខ្វះខាត គាត់ត្រូវតែធ្វើការជ្រើសរើសរវាងការលំហែ (ដែលមិនទទួលបានប្រាក់ចំណូលសម្រាប់ការប្រើប្រាស់) និងកម្លាំងពលកម្ម (ដែលរកប្រាក់ចំណូលសម្រាប់ការប្រើប្រាស់)។

The previous model of consumer choice theory is applicable with only slight modifications. First, the total amount of time that an individual has to allocate is known as his time endowment, and is often denoted as T. The amount an individual allocates to labor (denoted L) and leisure (l) is constrained by T such that:

or

A person's consumption is the amount of labor they choose multiplied by the amount they are paid per hour of labor (their wage, often denoted w). Thus, the amount that a person consumes is:

When a consumer chooses no leisure  then  and .

ពីគំរូនៃការដោះដូរពលកម្ម និងលំហែរកាយនេះ ការជំនួស និងផលប៉ះពាល់នៃប្រាក់ចំណូលនៃការផ្លាស់ប្តូរផ្សេងៗនៃតម្លៃដែលបណ្តាលមកពីអត្ថប្រយោជន៍សុខុមាលភាព ពន្ធលើការងារ ឬឥណទានពន្ធអាចត្រូវបានវិភាគ។

ឯកសារយោង

មីក្រូសេដ្ឋកិច្ច

ជម្រើសអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់


The Dumaresq River ; (Indigenous Bigambul: Karaula) a perennial stream of the Macintyre catchment within the Murray–Darling basin, is located in the Northern Tablelands and North West Slopes regions of New South Wales and the Darling Downs region of Queensland, Australia.

Part of the course of the river marks the boundary between Queensland and New South Wales.

Course and features
The river rises on the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, formed by the confluence of the Queensland branch of the Severn River and the Tenterfield Creek, east of Glenlyon Dam in Queensland. The upper reaches of the Dumaresq River form north of Stanthorpe, Queensland. The Dumaresq River flows generally southwest and northwest, joined by fourteen tributaries, including the Mole River, Pike Creek, Beardy River, and Macintyre Brook, before reaching its confluence with the Macintyre River, east of Boggabilla. The river descends  over its  course.

The Dumaresq River, together with Pike Creek, the Mole, Beardy, Severn (Queensland), Severn (New South Wales), and Macintyre rivers are all part of the Border Rivers group. The Dumaresq River flows through Bonshaw, New South Wales and Yelarbon and Texas in Queensland. South of Texas, the Bruxner Highway crosses the Dumaresq River.

Within the river valley there are vineyards and numerous spots for fishing.  Farmers in the valley once supported the tobacco industry with crop near towns such as Texas.

In April 2011, the water hyacinth weed was found in the river system for the first time.

Etymology

The traditional custodians of the land surrounding the Dumaresq River are the indigenous Bigambul peoples, who called the river Karaula. The Kamilaroi people also have strong connections to the river.

The river was visited by European explorer and botanist, Allan Cunningham, in 1827 and named in honour of Lt-Colonel Henry Dumaresq, a relative of Ralph Darling, the Governor of New South Wales at that time. The river has an important role in the sustainability of livelihoods of people who live on and near its banks.

See also

Rivers of New South Wales
Rivers of Queensland

References

External links

Rivers of Queensland
Rivers of New South Wales
Murray-Darling basin
Darling Downs
Great Dividing Range
Northern Tablelands
Borders of New South Wales
Borders of Queensland

Dumaresq River


Léon Walras (16 December 1834-5 January 1910) was a French economist.  He started what is known as Lausanne school, or Marginalism today. He looked at market equlibrium. He started general equilibrium theory. For this, he looked at marginal utility: This is the added benefit of consuming another unit of an economic good. His thoughts are very important for Neoclassical econmics. In general equilibrium theory, he looked at a scenario, where there are (an unspecified, large) number of households and companies, who act on several markets: He postulated that what is true in one market, in equilibrium must be true for all of them: There is a system of price determination that has the property that supply and demand match on all markets. Abraham Wald could prove this hhypothesis only much later. Today, it is part of the Arrow–Debreu model.

1834 births
1910 deaths
French economists

Léon Walras


Khimera is a software product from Kintech Lab intended for calculation of the kinetic parameters of microscopic processes, thermodynamic and transport properties of substances and their mixtures in gases, plasmas and also of heterogeneous processes.
The development of a kinetic mechanism is a key stage of present-day technologies for the creation of hi-tech devices and processes in a wide range of fields, such as microelectronics, chemical industry, and the design and optimization of combustion engines and power stations.
Khimera with Chemical WorkBench, another software product from Kintech Lab, allows both the development of complex physical and chemical mechanisms and their validation. Essential feature of Khimera is its user-friendly interface for importing and utilizing the results of quantum-chemical calculations for estimating rate constants of elementary processes and thermodynamic and transport properties.

Fields of application
Khimera incorporates up to date achievements in the development of the wide range of models of elementary physicochemical processes; these models are of particular importance for hi-tech applications in:
microelectronics
materials science
chemical industry
automobile and aviation industry
power engineering.

Basic capabilities
The computation modules of Khimera allow one to calculate the kinetic parameters of elementary processes and thermodynamic and transport properties from the data on the molecular structures and properties obtained from quantum-chemical calculations or from an experiment. The molecular properties and the parameters of molecular interactions can be calculated using quantum-chemical software (Gaussian, GAMESS, Jaguar, ADF) and directly imported into Khimera in an automatic mode.  The results of calculations can be presented visually and exported for the further use in kinetic modeling and CFD packages.

References
1. J Comput Chem 23: 1375–1389, 2002
2. https://web.archive.org/web/20160611153527/http://www.softscout.com/software/Science-and-Laboratory/Laboratory-Information-Management-LIMS/Khimera.html

Chemical engineering
Chemical kinetics
Combustion
Computational chemistry software
Molecular modelling software

Khimera


A police dog (also called a K-9) is a dog trained to help police and other law enforcement people. German Shepherds are the most common breed, but other breeds are also used. If a police dog is killed in duty, it is usually given a full police funeral. K-9s are often given their own ballistic vests, and some are given their own police IDs and badges.

What can police dogs do?
A police dog may be trained to do one special thing, or a few different things.  Common K-9 jobs include:
 Searching for drugs (for example, in prisons or during arrests)
 Searching for explosives
 Searching for crime scene evidence
 Chasing and holding suspects
 Making suspects less likely to fight police because of fear that the dog will be released (this is called "bark and hold" - the dog barks aggressively to scare the suspect while its handler holds its leash)
 Protecting police officers

Specialized police dogs
There are also specialized police dogs, who are used only for a specific job because they have special skills or training for that job.  For example:
 Sentry and attack dogs find and catch suspects or enemies.  They also provide security for important areas.
 Search and rescue dogs (SAR) find missing people, people who are running from the police, or missing objects. Bloodhounds are often used for this task because they are very good at sniffing out and following scents from people or objects.
 Detection or explosive-sniffing dogs scent (smell) illegal drugs and explosives.  In many countries, beagles are used in airports to sniff people's baggage for items that are not permitted.  Because beagles act and look very friendly, they do not worry most passengers.
 Arson dogs are trained to  detect traces of accelerants (things that would start or worsen a fire) at sites of suspected arson.
 Cadaver dogs are trained to sniff out decomposing bodies.  Dogs' noses are so sensitive that they are even able to smell bodies that are under running water Important work was done by Dr. Debra Komar at the University of Alberta, along with the RCMP Civilian Search Dog Association in this area. As a result, training techniques were developed, and cadaver-sniffing dogs now have near 100% accuracy rates. Her research has been published in the Journal of Forensic Anthropology.

Popular breeds

Different breeds of police dogs tend to be good at different things.  However, any good police dog should be intelligent, aggressive, strong, and have a good sense of smell. Many police dogs are male and unneutered (because neutering can make a dog less aggressive).  However, there are female police dogs, which are used for rescue, tracking, and locating bombs and drugs. German Shepherd Dogs and Belgian Malinois are the most commonly used; however, other dog breeds (and their specialties) include:

 American Pitbull Terrier (skilled at search and rescue/tracking, attack dogs, and finding bombs and drugs)
 Beagle (good at locating bombs and drugs. Used worldwide.)
 Belgian Malinois (often used for protection, attack dogs, finding IEDs, finding evidence and drugs, prisoner transport, and human tracking.)
 Bloodhound (very good at tracking and identifying things by their smell; used for tracking and locating bombs, drugs, and evidence.)
 Doberman Pinscher (used as a protection and attack dog)
 Dutch Shepherd (also used as a protection and attack dog)
 Springer Spaniel (good at locating bombs and drugs)
 German Shepherd Dog (often used for protection, attack dogs, ground-based tracking, air-based tracking, and finding dead bodies, drugs, evidence, and IEDs)
 German Shorthaired Pointer (good at ground-based tracking and air-based tracking, as well as finding drugs and evidence)
 Labrador Retriever (skilled at locating bombs and drugs)

References

Other websites
National Police Canine Association (United States)

Working dogs
Police

Police dog


The Sloat House is located at the corner of NY 17 and Sterling Avenue in Sloatsburg, New York, United States. It is a stone house, dating to the mid-18th century, with a frame front addition built in the 1810s.

It was the home for many years of members of the Sloat family, for whom the village is named. George Washington visited it during the Revolutionary War, and John D. Sloat, later the first American Military Governor of California, was born here. It also served as a meeting place for local politicians and officials during the Revolution and some decades afterward. In 1974 it became the first property in the village listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

Building

The house has two blocks, built at different times. The older rear section, the kitchen wing, is one-and-a-half stories high and . It is faced in clapboard, except for the north wall which is rough stone. It has two original Dutch doors, with their hinges. There is also an enclosed porch.

The  main wing is two and a half stories, faced in stone with a brick front, both painted white. It has a porch running the full length of all five front bays. The main entrance leads into a ground floor with four large rooms, each with its own original fireplace and wooden mantel. The six chimneys in both wings pierce gabled roofs shingled in asphalt. The house has a full cellar as well.

Three outbuildings remain on the property: a small barn, a large stable and a wellhouse. All three are remnants of the farming operations, and are considered contributing resources to the Register listing.

History

There may have been a house on the site in the late 1730s, when Isaac Van Deursen became the first European settler in the upper Ramapo River valley. The current wing may actually have been this house or part of it, since it is very primitive.

Traditionally, histories of the area have dated the house's original wing to 1755, when Stephen Sloat received the land as a wedding gift from his father-in-law. An early frame front was probably on the front of the house through the Revolution, which affected both the house and the Sloat family.

In 1774, a local meeting at the house, the General Meeting of Committees of Orange County, chose two delegates, Henry Wisner and John Haring, to the Provincial Convention of the First Continental Congress. George Washington had his headquarters at the house on June 6, 1779, and likely made other visits during the Revolutionary War.

Tragedy struck the Sloats in 1781 when their son John, a captain in the local militia, was accidentally shot and killed in the doorway by one of the sentries his father had hired. The marks left in the doorway by the shots remain. The infant son Sloat left behind grew up to be John D. Sloat, a celebrated U.S. Navy commodore and the first governor of California.

Isaac Sloat, John's brother, later built the front of the house around 1813–14. He ran it as a public house, also hosting annual meetings of town supervisors and judges from Orange and Rockland counties through 1821. His son Stephen ran the house as an inn along the Orange Turnpike, renowned for its food but serving no alcoholic beverages. At this point the large barn was also built. Stephen's brother Jacob developed a mill along the creek and later built his own house in the village.

In 1905 the Sloat descendants sold the house to Benjamin Moffatt Jr., an English immigrant who later became president of the nearby Sterling iron works. It remained in the Moffatt family throughout the 20th century and is still a private residence.

See also

 List of Washington's Headquarters during the Revolutionary War
 National Register of Historic Places listings in Rockland County, New York

References

Houses on the National Register of Historic Places in New York (state)
Houses completed in 1755
Houses in Rockland County, New York
Ramapos
National Register of Historic Places in Rockland County, New York

Sloat House


Wrather Arch is a cave type natural arch in the Paria Canyon-Vermilion Cliffs Wilderness, in Coconino County, northern Arizona.
The sandstone arch is located in the eponymous Wrather Canyon, a short side canyon of Paria Canyon. The Paria River is a tributary of the Colorado River, at its confluence down−canyon at Lee's Ferry.
Wrather Arch was first spotted by a local pilot from Page, Arizona, Royce K Knight, as he flew over a remote gorge west of Glen Canyon.  Reaching the arch by helicopter in 1963, Knight and National Geographic staff man Walter M Edwards calculated its height as  165 feet and about 250 feet across.  A news bulletin from National Geographic dated February 4, 1966 states, "Tall as a 15 story building, Wrather Arch (named for a past National Geographic Trustee)... The Taj Mahal would fit comfortably into the arch..."

Length
Wrather Arch was once thought to be the longest natural arch span outside of the state of Utah, originally reported to be  in span. The recent discovery of longer arches in China, Afghanistan, and Chad; and a shortening of its estimated length by the Natural Arch and Bridge Society – NABS, have taken Wrather Arch off their "largest arches over 200 feet in span list." Recent NABS assessments estimate the span has an approximate length of .

Access
Wrather Arch is distinguished as being the least accessible among the major natural spans in the Southwestern United States. It is located in the heart of the Paria Canyon-Vermilion Cliffs Wilderness area, and can only be accessed by the Paria Canyon Trail.  Being located near the midway point of the hiking trail, visitors must walk around  to reach and see Wrather Arch.  Permits for the hike are required from the BLM office in Kanab, Utah.

See also
 Vermilion Cliffs
 Vermilion Cliffs National Monument
 Lee's Ferry and Lonely Dell Ranch

References

 "Hiking and Exploring the Paria River" – by Michael Kelsey.
 "Hikers Guide to Paria" – BLM publication, with map.

Natural arches of Arizona
Landforms of Coconino County, Arizona
Bureau of Land Management areas in Arizona

Wrather Arch


Gnome King Kyrië (Dutch: Kabouterkoning Kyrië, ) is, according to local folklore, the leader of the legendary gnomes (kabouters) which lived in the Campine region of the province of North Brabant, the Netherlands. These gnomes had their base in the village of Hoogeloon. From Hoogeloon the gnomes often made journeys in the neighboring lands. According to tradition the Gnome King Kyrië lived on the Kerkakkers in the Kabouterberg (Gnome Mountain) also known as Duivelsberg (Devil's Mountain), a tumulus located in the Koebosch forest, slightly northeast of Hoogeloon.

The gnomes of the Campine were helpful creatures who helped mostly the farmers and the households in the Campine and also in the neighboring lands of the Peel and the Meierij. They came by night and did not want to be seen by people. If people did see them, they were punished by the gnomes. One story tells of an inquisitive farmer who spied on the gnomes and later became blind in one eye as a punishment.

The death of Kyrië
One day, Gnome King Kyrië was shot by a hunter in the heathlands of Riethoven (most sources name the winter of 1952/1953, some place his death in the winter of 1951/1952). He had just enough strength to reach the Duivelsberg (Devil's Mountain) where the gnomes lived. The hunter looked for what he had shot down, when he heard the shocked gnomes say: "Kyrië is dead". The sad message that their king had died spread quickly among all gnome settlements in the region. Gnome King Kyrië was buried somewhere in Hoogeloon. After the death of their king, all the gnomes left the area to an unknown destination. Nobody has ever since heard or seen these Campine gnomes.

Statue
In Hoogeloon, a village pump with a statue of Gnome King Kyrië on it was erected on the Valensplein in 1985. It is designed by Gubbels. On 9 April 2001 the pump and statue were moved to another place on the same square after a reconstruction of the Valensplein. At the same time a special 'Koning Kyrië Kruidenbitter', a bitter, was introduced.

References

External links

Dutch legendary creatures
Mythological kings
Gnomes
Folklore of the Benelux

Gnome King Kyrië


The İzmir Art and Sculpture Museum and Gallery () is an art museum in İzmir, Turkey.

Established by the Turkish state in 1952 as the İzmir State Painting and Sculpture Museum, the museum was later moved from the Kültürpark to its present location on Atatürk Boulevard near the Konak pier. The small museum displays mostly 20th-century paintings and sculptures from Turkish artists, and has a substantial collection of works by Turgut Pura.

References

External links

Art museums and galleries in Turkey
Arts in İzmir
Museums in İzmir
Art museums established in 1952
1952 establishments in Turkey

İzmir Art and Sculpture Museum


A shift register is a type of digital circuit using a cascade of flip-flops where the output of one flip-flop is connected to the input of the next. They share a single clock signal, which causes the data stored in the system to shift from one location to the next. By connecting the last flip-flop back to the first, the data can cycle within the shifters for extended periods, and in this configuration they were used as computer memory, displacing delay-line memory systems in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

In most cases, several parallel shift registers would be used to build a larger memory pool known as a "bit array". Data was stored into the array and read back out in parallel, often as a computer word, while each bit was stored serially in the shift registers. There is an inherent trade-off in the design of bit arrays; putting more flip-flops in a row allows a single shifter to store more bits, but requires more clock cycles to push the data through all of the shifters before the data can be read back out again.

Shift registers can have both parallel and serial inputs and outputs. These are often configured as "serial-in, parallel-out" (SIPO) or as "parallel-in, serial-out" (PISO). There are also types that have both serial and parallel input and types with serial and parallel output. There are also "bidirectional" shift registers, which allow shifting in both directions: L → R or R → L. The serial input and last output of a shift register can also be connected to create a "circular shift register". A PIPO register (parallel in, parallel out) is simply a D-type register and is not a shift register, but is very fast – an output is given within a single clock pulse. A "universal" shift register provides bidirectional serial-in and serial-out, as well as parallel-in and parallel-out.

Serial-in serial-out (SISO)

Destructive readout

These are the simplest kind of shift registers. The data string is presented at "data in" and is shifted right one stage each time "data advance" is brought high. At each advance, the bit on the far left (i.e. "data in") is shifted into the first flip-flop's output. The bit on the far right (i.e. "data out") is shifted out and lost.

The data is stored after each flip-flop on the "Q" output, so there are four storage "slots" available in this arrangement, hence it is a 4-bit register. To give an idea of the shifting pattern, imagine that the register holds 0000 (so all storage slots are empty). As "data in" presents 1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0 (in that order, with a pulse at "data advance" each time—this is called clocking or strobing) to the register, this is the result. The right hand column corresponds to the right-most flip-flop's output pin, and so on.

So the serial output of the entire register is 00010110. It can be seen that if data were to be continued to input, it would get exactly what was put in (10110000), but offset by four "data advance" cycles. This arrangement is the hardware equivalent of a queue. Also, at any time, the whole register can be set to zero by bringing the reset (R) pins high.

This arrangement performs destructive readout each datum is lost once it has been shifted out of the right-most bit.

Serial-in parallel-out (SIPO)

This configuration allows conversion from serial to parallel format. Data  input is serial, as described in the SISO section above. Once the data has been clocked in, it may be either read off at each output simultaneously, or it can be shifted out.

In this configuration, each flip-flop is edge triggered. All flip-flops operate at the given clock frequency.  Each input bit makes its way down to the Nth output after N clock cycles, leading to parallel output.

In cases where the parallel outputs should not change during the serial loading process, it's desirable to use a latched or buffered output. In a latched shift register (such as the 74595) the serial data is first loaded into an internal buffer register, then upon receipt of a load signal the state of the buffer register is copied into a set of output registers. In general, the practical application of the serial-in/parallel-out shift register is to convert data from serial format on a single wire to parallel format on multiple wires.

Parallel-in serial-out (PISO)
This configuration has the data input on lines D1 through D4 in parallel format, D1 being the most significant bit. To write the data to the register, the Write/Shift control line must be held LOW. To shift the data, the W/S control line is brought HIGH and the registers are clocked. The arrangement now acts as a PISO shift register, with D1 as the Data Input. However, as long as the number of clock cycles is not more than the length of the data-string, the Data Output, Q, will be the parallel data read off in order.  The animation below shows the write/shift sequence, including the internal state of the shift register.

Uses

Serial and Parallel conversion

One of the most common uses of a shift register is to convert between serial and parallel interfaces.

Delay

Serial-in serial-out shift registers can be used as simple delay circuits.

Stack

Several bidirectional shift registers can also be connected in parallel for a hardware implementation of a stack.

More I/O pins
Shift registers are commonly attached to microcontrollers when more general-purpose input/output pins are required than are available, sometimes over a Serial Peripheral Interface in daisy chain configuration, which allows any number of binary devices to be accessed using only two to four pins, though more slowly than parallel I/O.

For more outputs, SIPO shift registers are used. The parallel outputs of the shift register and the desired state for all those devices can be sent out of the microcontroller using a single serial connection.

For more inputs, PISO shift registers are used. Each binary input (such as a button or more complicated circuitry) is attached to a parallel input of the shift register, then the data is sent back serially to the microcontroller.

Pulse extenders
Shift registers can also be used as pulse extenders. Compared to monostable multivibrators, the timing does not depend on component values, but it requires an external clock, and the timing accuracy is limited by the granularity of this clock. An example of such a pulse extender is the Ronja Twister, wherein five 74164 shift registers create the core of the timing logic this way (schematic).

Data processing
In early computers, shift registers were used to handle data processing: two numbers to be added were stored in two shift registers and clocked out into an arithmetic and logic unit (ALU) with the result being fed back to the input of one of the shift registers (the accumulator), which was one bit longer, since binary addition can only result in an answer that has the same size or is one bit longer.

Bitshift operations

Many computer languages include bitwise operations to "shift right" and "shift left" the data in a register, effectively dividing by two or multiplying by two for each place shifted.

Shift register memory
Very large serial-in serial-out shift registers (thousands of bits in size) were used in a similar manner to the earlier delay-line memory in some devices built in the early 1970s. Shift registers don't need many pins or address decoding logic, so was much cheaper than random-access memory back then. Such shift register memory was sometimes called circulating memory.

Datapoint 3300, for example, stored its terminal display of 25 rows of 72 columns of 6-bit upper-case characters using 54 200-bit shift registers (arranged in 6 tracks of 9 packs), providing storage for 1800 characters. The shift register design meant that scrolling the terminal display could be accomplished by simply pausing the display output to skip one line of characters. A similar design was used for the Apple I's terminal.

History
One of the first known examples of a shift register was in the Mark 2 Colossus, a code-breaking machine built in 1944. It was a six-stage device built of vacuum tubes and thyratrons. A shift register was also used in the IAS machine, built by John von Neumann and others at the Institute for Advanced Study in the late 1940s. Shift registers made their way into integrated circuits in the 1960s as evidenced by early patents from Frank Wanlass and Kent Smith working at General Instrument.

See also
 Delay-line memory
 Linear-feedback shift register (LFSR)
 Ring counter
 SerDes (Serializer/Deserializer)
 Serial Peripheral Interface Bus
 Shift register lookup table (SRL)
 Circular buffer

References

Digital registers
Computer memory

Shift register


Acacia phlebophylla, a type of acacia also known by the names Buffalo sallow wattle and Mount Buffalo wattle, is a straggling shrub to small, twisted tree reaching up to 5 m in height. It is a close relative of Acacia alpina. It has large, elliptic, flat, commonly asymmetrical phyllodes 4–14 cm long, 1.5–6 cm wide, with coarse veins, a leathery feel, prominent nerves and reticulated veins. Deep yellow rod-like flowers appear in spring (June–December in Australia), widely scattered on spikes 4–7 cm long, followed by 7–10 cm long legumes in November–March, narrow, straight or slightly curved, releasing 5–10 elliptical seeds, 5–7.5 mm long. Solitary or twinned spikes, to 6 cm long. Only known from the high altitude granite slopes of Mount Buffalo National Park, Victoria, Australia, where it occurs above 350 meters in woodlands and heathlands often amongst granite boulders.

This is one of the purest natural sources of the psychedelic drug dimethyltryptamine, also known as DMT, which occurs as the predominant alkaloid throughout the plant.  However, due to conservation issues this species is not considered a viable source of tryptamines, as outlined below. A much more common species such as Acacia obtusifolia, should be researched instead.

Recent reports on regrowth after the 2006 bushfires indicates that the phyllodes of young plants have little to no dimethyltryptamine content. This is presumed to be due to the young age of the plants versus the old growth that stood before the fire.

Conservation
 Care must be taken with this species as it consists of one population or metapopulation which has been ravaged over the years by bush fires and fungal infections.  Acacia phlebophylla is listed as rare and threatened by the Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment.  There is significant concern for the viability of this population, particularly with the threat of fungal pathogens and other disturbances.  (A particular species of local wasp may be associated with the transmission of this fungal pathogen.)
 Looking/walking amongst them from stand to stand has been strongly advised against, due to the risk of spreading the fungal pathogen which at the moment is their greatest threat.
 Though there are many accounts of bountiful regrowth, this species should not be used for the extraction of drugs for conservation reasons.  Attempts at ex-situ cultivation have been mostly unsuccessful and have usually resulted in plants dying at 3 years.  If cultivation is successful, it is important that plants are allowed to mature and produce seeds for eventual rehabilitation rather than used for tryptamine production.

Healthy plants exist in private gardens near Gatton, Queensland as well near Meadows in South Australia and in Ireland, indicating the plant is not as recalcitrant in cultivation or restricted to its alpine environment as was once thought.

References

External links
 Acacia Phlebophylla – Extensive Information and Photos.

phlebophylla
Flora of Victoria (state)
Ayahuasca analogs

Acacia phlebophylla


George Pratt Shultz (; December 13, 1920February 6, 2021) was an American economist, businessman, diplomat and statesman. He served in various positions under two different Republican presidents and is one of the only two persons to have held four different Cabinet-level posts, the other being Elliot Richardson. Shultz played a major role in shaping the foreign policy of the Ronald Reagan administration and advancing the false narrative used to defraud investors in Theranos.

Born in New York City, he graduated from Princeton University before serving in the United States Marine Corps during World War II. After the war, Shultz earned a PhD in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He taught at MIT from 1948 to 1957, taking a leave of absence in 1955 to take a position on President Dwight D. Eisenhower's Council of Economic Advisers. After serving as dean of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, he accepted President Richard Nixon's appointment as United States Secretary of Labor. In that position, he imposed the Philadelphia Plan on construction contractors who refused to accept black members, marking the first use of racial quotas by the federal government. In 1970, he became the first director of the Office of Management and Budget, and he served in that position until his appointment as United States Secretary of the Treasury in 1972. In that role, Shultz supported the Nixon shock, which sought to revive the ailing economy in part by abolishing the gold standard, and presided over the end of the Bretton Woods system.

Shultz left the Nixon administration in 1974 to become an executive at Bechtel. After becoming president and director of that company, he accepted President Ronald Reagan's offer to serve as United States Secretary of State. He held that office from 1982 to 1989. Shultz pushed for Reagan to establish relations with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which led to a thaw between the United States and the Soviet Union. He opposed the U.S. aid to Contras trying to overthrow the Sandinistas by using funds from an illegal sale of weapons to Iran. This aid led to the Iran–Contra affair.

Shultz retired from public office in 1989 but remained active in business and politics. He had already been an executive of the Bechtel Group, an engineering and services company, from 1974 to 1982. Shultz served as an informal adviser to George W. Bush and helped formulate the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war. He served on the Global Commission on Drug Policy, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's Economic Recovery Council, and on the boards of Bechtel and the Charles Schwab Corporation.

Beginning in 2013, Shultz advocated for a revenue-neutral carbon tax as the most economically sound means of mitigating anthropogenic climate change. He was a member of the Hoover Institution, the Institute for International Economics, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and other groups. He was also a prominent and hands-on board member of Theranos, which defrauded more than $700 million from its investors before it collapsed. His grandson Tyler Shultz worked at the company before becoming a whistleblower about the fraudulent technology.

Early life and career
Shultz was born December 13, 1920, in New York City, the only child of Margaret Lennox (née Pratt) and Birl Earl Shultz. He grew up in Englewood, New Jersey. His great-grandfather was an immigrant from Germany who arrived in the United States in the middle of the 19th century. Contrary to common assumption, Shultz was not a member of the Pratt family associated with John D. Rockefeller and the Standard Oil Trust.

After attending the local public school, he transferred to the Englewood School for Boys (now Dwight-Englewood School), through his second year of high school. In 1938, Shultz graduated from the private preparatory boarding high school Loomis Chaffee School in Windsor, Connecticut. He earned a bachelor's degree, cum laude, at Princeton University, New Jersey, in economics with a minor in public and international affairs. His senior thesis, "The Agricultural Program of the Tennessee Valley Authority", examined the Tennessee Valley Authority's effect on local agriculture, for which he conducted on-site research. He graduated with honors in 1942.

From 1942 to 1945, Shultz was on active duty in the U.S. Marine Corps. He was an artillery officer, attaining the rank of captain. He was attached to the U.S. Army 81st Infantry Division during the Battle of Angaur (Battle of Peleliu).

In 1949, Shultz earned a PhD in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. From 1948 to 1957, he taught in the MIT Department of Economics and the MIT Sloan School of Management, with a leave of absence in 1955 to serve on President Dwight D. Eisenhower's Council of Economic Advisers as a Senior Staff Economist. In 1957, Shultz left MIT and joined the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business as a professor of industrial relations, and he served as the Graduate School of Business Dean from 1962 to 1968. During his time in Chicago, he was influenced by Nobel Laureates Milton Friedman and George Stigler, who reinforced Shultz's view of the importance of a free-market economy. He left the University of Chicago to serve under President Richard Nixon in 1969.

Nixon administration

Secretary of Labor
Shultz was President Richard Nixon's Secretary of Labor from 1969 to 1970. He soon faced the crisis of the Longshoremen's Union strike. The Lyndon B. Johnson Administration had delayed the walkout with a Taft–Hartley injunction that expired, and the press pressed him to describe his approach. He applied the theory he had developed in academia: he let the parties work it out, which they did quickly. He also imposed the Philadelphia Plan, which required Pennsylvania construction unions to admit a certain number of black members by an enforced deadline—a break with their past policy of largely discriminating against such members. This marked the first use of racial quotas in the federal government.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Nixon's first choice for Secretary of Labor, was deemed unacceptable by AFL–CIO President George Meany, which pushed to fill the position with Shultz, then Dean of University of Chicago's School of Business, (with prior experience in another GOP administration, on President Eisenhower's Council of Economic Advisers).

Office of Management and Budget
Shultz became the first director of the Office of Management and Budget, the renamed and reorganized Bureau of the Budget, on July 1, 1970. He was the agency's 19th director.

Secretary of the Treasury
Shultz was United States Secretary of the Treasury from June 1972 to May 1974. During his tenure, he was concerned with two major issues, namely the continuing domestic administration of Nixon's "New Economic Policy", begun under Secretary John Connally (Shultz privately opposed its three elements), and a renewed dollar crisis that broke out in February 1973.

Domestically Shultz enacted the next phase of the NEP, lifting price controls begun in 1971. This phase was a failure, resulting in high inflation, and price freezes were reestablished five months later.

Meanwhile, Shultz's attention was increasingly diverted from the domestic economy to the international arena. In 1973, he participated in an international monetary conference in Paris that grew out of the 1971 decision to abolish the gold standard, a decision Shultz and Paul Volcker had supported (see Nixon Shock). The conference formally abolished the Bretton Woods system, causing all currencies to float. During this period Shultz co-founded the "Library Group", which became the G7. Shultz resigned shortly before Nixon to return to private life.

Shultz was instrumental in freedom for Soviet Jewry.

Business executive
In 1974, he left government service to become executive vice president of Bechtel Group, a large engineering and services company. He was later its president and a director.

Under Shultz's leadership, Bechtel received contracts for many large construction projects, including from Saudi Arabia. In the year before he left Bechtel, the company reported a 50% increase in revenue.

Reagan administration
Shultz is one of only two individuals to have served in four United States Cabinet positions within the United States government, the other having been Elliot Richardson.

Secretary of State
On July 16, 1982, Shultz was appointed by President Ronald Reagan as the 60th U.S. Secretary of State, replacing Alexander Haig, who had resigned. Shultz served for six and a half years, the longest tenure since Dean Rusk's. The possibility of a conflict of interest in his position as secretary of state after being in the upper management of the Bechtel Group was raised by several senators during his confirmation hearings. Shultz briefly lost his temper in response to some questions on the subject but was nevertheless unanimously confirmed by the Senate.

Shultz relied primarily on the Foreign Service to formulate and implement Reagan's foreign policy. As reported in the State Department's official history, "by the summer of 1985, Shultz had personally selected most of the senior officials in the Department, emphasizing professional over political credentials in the process [...] The Foreign Service responded in kind by giving Shultz its 'complete support,' making him one of the most popular Secretaries since Dean Acheson." Shultz's success came from not only the respect he earned from the bureaucracy but the strong relationship he forged with Reagan, who trusted him completely.

Diplomatic historian Walter LaFeber states that his 1993 memoir, Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State, "is the most detailed, vivid, outspoken, and reliable record we probably shall have of the 1980s until the documents are opened".

Relations with China
Shultz inherited negotiations with the People's Republic of China over Taiwan from his predecessor. Under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States was obligated to assist in Taiwan's defense, which included the sale of arms. The Administration debate on Taiwan, especially over the sale of military aircraft, resulted in a crisis in relations with China, which was alleviated only in August 1982, when, after months of arduous negotiations, the United States and the PRC issued a joint communiqué on Taiwan in which the United States agreed to limit arms sales to Taiwan and China agreed to seek a "peaceful solution".

Relations with Europe and the Soviet Union
By the summer of 1982, relations were strained not only between Washington and Moscow but also between Washington and key capitals in Western Europe. In response to the imposition of martial law in Poland the previous December, the Reagan administration had imposed sanctions on a pipeline between West Germany and the Soviet Union. European leaders vigorously protested sanctions that damaged their interests but not U.S. interests in grain sales to the Soviet Union. Shultz resolved this "poisonous problem" in December 1982, when the United States agreed to abandon sanctions against the pipeline and the Europeans agreed to adopt stricter controls on strategic trade with the Soviets.

A more controversial issue was the NATO Ministers' 1979 "dual track" decision: if the Soviets refused to remove their SS-20 medium range ballistic missiles within four years, then the Allies would deploy a countervailing force of cruise and Pershing II missiles in Western Europe. When negotiations on these intermediate nuclear forces (INF) stalled, 1983 became a year of protest. Shultz and other Western leaders worked hard to maintain allied unity amidst anti-nuclear demonstrations in Europe and the United States. In spite of Western protests and Soviet propaganda, the allies began deployment of the missiles as scheduled in November 1983.

U.S.–Soviet tensions were raised by the announcement in March 1983 of the Strategic Defense Initiative, and exacerbated by the Soviet shoot-down of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 near Moneron Island on September 1. Tensions reached a height with the Able Archer 83 exercises in November 1983, during which the Soviets feared a pre-emptive American attack.

Following the missile deployment and the exercises, both Shultz and Reagan resolved to seek further dialogue with the Soviets.

When General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union came to power in 1985, Shultz advocated that Reagan pursue a personal dialogue with him. Reagan gradually changed his perception of Gorbachev's strategic intentions in 1987, when the two leaders signed the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The treaty, which eliminated an entire class of missiles in Europe, was a milestone in the history of the Cold War. Although Gorbachev took the initiative, Reagan was well prepared by the State Department to negotiate.

Two more events in 1988 persuaded Shultz that Soviet intentions were changing. First, the Soviet Union's initial withdrawal from Afghanistan indicated that the Brezhnev Doctrine was dead. "If the Soviets left Afghanistan, the Brezhnev Doctrine would be breached, and the principle of 'never letting go' would be violated", Shultz reasoned. The second event, according to Keren Yarhi-Milo of Princeton University, happened during the 19th Communist Party Conference, "at which Gorbachev proposed major domestic reforms such as the establishment of competitive elections with secret ballots; term limits for elected officials; separation of powers with an independent judiciary; and provisions for freedom of speech, assembly, conscience, and the press." The proposals indicated that Gorbachev was making revolutionary and irreversible changes.

Middle East diplomacy
In response to the escalating violence of the Lebanese civil war, Reagan sent a Marine contingent to protect the Palestinian refugee camps and support the Lebanese Government. The October 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut killed 241 U.S. servicemen, after which the deployment came to an ignominious end. Shultz subsequently negotiated an agreement between Israel and Lebanon and convinced Israel to begin partial withdrawal of its troops in January 1985 despite Lebanon's contravention of the settlement.

During the First Intifada (see Arab–Israeli conflict), Shultz "proposed ... an international convention in April 1988 ... on an interim autonomy agreement for the West Bank and Gaza Strip, to be implemented as of October for a three-year period". By December 1988, after six months of shuttle diplomacy, Shultz had established a diplomatic dialogue with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was picked up by the next Administration.

Latin America
Shultz was known for outspoken opposition to the "arms for hostages" scandal that would eventually become known as the Iran-Contra Affair. In 1983 testimony before Congress, he said that the Sandinista government in Nicaragua was "a very undesirable cancer in the area". He was also opposed to any negotiation with the government of Daniel Ortega: "Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table."

Later life

After leaving public office, Shultz "retained an iconoclastic streak" and publicly opposed some positions taken by fellow Republicans. He called the War on Drugs a failure, and added his signature to an advertisement printed in The New York Times in 1998, headlined "We believe the global war on drugs is now causing more harm than drug abuse itself." In 2011, he was part of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which called for a public health and harm reduction approach towards drug use, alongside Kofi Annan, Paul Volcker, and George Papandreou.

Shultz was an early advocate of the presidential candidacy of George W. Bush, whose father, George H. W. Bush, was Reagan's vice president. In April 1998, Shultz hosted a meeting at which George W. Bush discussed his views with policy experts including Michael Boskin, John Taylor, and Condoleezza Rice, who were evaluating possible Republican candidates to run for president in 2000. At the end of the meeting, the group felt they could support Bush's candidacy, and Shultz encouraged him to enter the race.

He then served as an informal advisor for Bush's presidential campaign during the 2000 election and a senior member of the "Vulcans", a group of policy mentors for Bush that also included Rice, Dick Cheney, and Paul Wolfowitz. One of his most senior advisors and confidants was former ambassador Charles Hill. Shultz has been called the father of the "Bush Doctrine" and generally defended the Bush administration's foreign policy. Shultz supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq, writing in support of U.S. military action months before the war began.

In a 2008 interview with Charlie Rose, Shultz spoke out against the U.S. embargo against Cuba, saying that U.S. sanctions against the island country were "ridiculous" in the post-Soviet world and that U.S. engagement with Cuba was a better strategy.

In 2003, Shultz served as co-chair (along with Warren Buffett) of California's Economic Recovery Council, an advisory group to the campaign of California gubernatorial candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In later life, Shultz continued to be a strong advocate for nuclear arms control. In a 2008 interview, Shultz said: "Now that we know so much about these weapons and their power, they're almost weapons that we wouldn't use, so I think we would be better off without them." In January 2008, Shultz co-authored (with William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn) an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal that called on governments to embrace the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. The four created the Nuclear Threat Initiative to advance this agenda, focused on both preventing nuclear terrorist attacks and a nuclear war between world powers. In 2010, the four were featured in the documentary film Nuclear Tipping Point, which discussed their agenda.

In January 2011, Shultz wrote a letter to President Barack Obama urging him to pardon Jonathan Pollard. He stated, "I am impressed that the people who are best informed about the classified material Pollard passed to Israel, former CIA Director James Woolsey and former Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee Dennis DeConcini, favor his release".

Shultz was a prominent advocate of efforts to fight anthropogenic climate change. Shultz favored a revenue-neutral carbon tax (i.e., a carbon fee and dividend program, in which carbon dioxide emissions are taxed and the net funds received are rebated to taxpayers) as the most economically efficient means of mitigating climate change. In April 2013, he co-wrote, with economist Gary Becker, an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that concluded that this plan would "benefit all Americans by eliminating the need for costly energy subsidies while promoting a level playing field for energy producers." He repeated this call in a September 2014 talk at MIT and a March 2015 op-ed in The Washington Post. In 2014, Shultz joined the advisory board of the Citizens' Climate Lobby, and in 2017, Shultz cofounded the Climate Leadership Council, along with George H. W. Bush's Secretary of State James Baker and George W. Bush's Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson. In 2017, these Republican elder statesmen, along with Martin S. Feldstein and N. Gregory Mankiw, urged conservatives to embrace a carbon fee and dividend program.

In 2016, Shultz was one of eight former Treasury secretaries who called on the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union ahead of the "Brexit" referendum.

Theranos scandal

From 2011 to 2015, Shultz was a member of the board of directors of Theranos, a health technology company that became known for its false claims to have devised revolutionary blood tests. He was a prominent figure in the ensuing scandal. After joining the company's board in November 2011, he recruited other political figures, including former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of Defense William Perry, and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn. Shultz also promoted Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes at major forums, including Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), and was on record supporting her in major media publications. This helped Holmes in her efforts to raise money from investors.

Shultz's grandson, Tyler Shultz, joined Theranos in September 2013 after graduating from Stanford University with a degree in biology. Tyler was forced to leave the company in 2014 after raising concerns about its testing practices with Holmes and his grandfather. George Shultz initially did not believe Tyler's warnings and pressured him to keep quiet. Shultz continued to advocate for Holmes and Theranos. Tyler eventually contacted reporter John Carreyrou (who went on to expose the scandal in The Wall Street Journal), but as summarized by ABC Nightline, "it wasn't long before Theranos got wind of it and attempted to use George Shultz to silence his grandson." Tyler went to his grandfather's house to discuss the allegations, but was surprised to encounter Theranos attorneys there, who pressured him to sign a document. Tyler did not sign any agreements, even though George pressured him to: "My grandfather would say, like, things like 'Your career would be ruined if [Carreyrou's] article comes out.'" Tyler and his parents spent nearly $500,000 on legal fees, selling their house to raise the funds, in fighting Theranos' accusations of violating the NDA and divulging trade secrets.

When media reports exposed controversial practices there in 2015, the company moved their non-technical directors like Shultz to a "Board of Counselors" and replaced them with a technical board.  In 2016 Theranos' "Board of Counselors" was "retired". Theranos was shut down on September 4, 2018. In a 2019 media statement, Shultz praised his grandson for not having shrunk "from what he saw as his responsibility to the truth and patient safety, even when he felt personally threatened and believed that I had placed allegiance to the company over allegiance to higher values and our family. ... Tyler navigated a very complex situation in ways that made me proud."

Other memberships held

Shultz had a long affiliation at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, where he was a distinguished fellow and, beginning in 2011, the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow; from 2018 until his death, Shultz hosted events on governance at the institution. Shultz was chairman of JPMorgan Chase's international advisory council. He was co-chairman of the conservative Committee on the Present Danger.

He was an honorary director of the Institute for International Economics. He was a member of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) board of advisors, the New Atlantic Initiative, the Mandalay Camp at the Bohemian Grove, and the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq. He served as an advisory board member for the Partnership for a Secure America and Citizens' Climate Lobby. He was honorary chairman of the Israel Democracy Institute. Shultz was a member of the advisory board of Spirit of America, a 501(c)(3) organization.

Shultz served on the board of directors of the Bechtel Corporation until 1996. He served on the board of Gilead Sciences from 1996 to 2005. Shultz sat on the board of directors of Xyleco and Accretive Health.

Together again with former Secretary of Defense William Perry, Shultz was serving on the board of Acuitus at the time of his death. And he has been member of the advisory board of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

Family
While on a rest and recreation break in Hawaii from serving in the Marines in the Asiatic-Pacific Theater during World War II, Shultz met military nurse lieutenant Helena Maria O'Brien (1915–1995). They married on February 16, 1946, and had five children: Margaret Ann Tilsworth, Kathleen Pratt Shultz Jorgensen, Peter Milton Shultz, Barbara Lennox Shultz White, and Alexander George Shultz. O'Brien died of pancreatic cancer in 1995.

In 1997, Shultz married Charlotte Mailliard Swig, a prominent San Francisco philanthropist and socialite. They remained married until his death. Shultz was a member of an Episcopal church.

Death
Shultz died at age 100 at his home in Stanford, California, on February 6, 2021. He was buried next to his first wife at Dawes Cemetery in Cummington, Massachusetts.

President Joe Biden reacted to Shultz's death by saying, "He was a gentleman of honor and ideas, dedicated to public service and respectful debate, even into his 100th year on Earth. That's why multiple presidents, of both political parties, sought his counsel. I regret that, as president, I will not be able to benefit from his wisdom, as have so many of my predecessors."

Honors and prizes

 2016 – Presidential Medal of Honor, San Francisco State University
 2014 – Honorary Reagan Fellow Award of Eureka College
 2013 – Honorary Silver Medal of Jan Masaryk
 2012 – Henry A. Kissinger Prize of the American Academy in Berlin
 2011 – Honorary Officer of the Order of Australia
 2010 – California Hall of Fame
 2007 – Truman Medal for Economic Policy
 2008 – Rumford Prize
 2007 – Emma Lazarus Statue of Liberty Award
 2006 – National World War II Museum, American Spirit Award
 2005 – Lead21, Lifetime Achievement Award
 2004 – American Whig-Cliosophic Society, James Madison Award for Distinguished Public Service
 2004 – American Economic Association, Distinguished Fellow
 2003 – Lifetime Contributions to American Diplomacy Award, American Foreign Service Association
 2002 – Reagan Distinguished American Award
 2002 – Ralph Bunche Award

 American Philosophical Society
 Elliot Richardson Prize
 John Witherspoon Medal

 2001 – Eisenhower Medal for Leadership
 2000 – Woodrow Wilson Award for Public Service
 1996 – Koret Prize
 1992 – Seoul Peace Prize (Korea)
 1992 – United States Military Academy, Sylvanus Thayer Award
 1989 – Presidential Medal of Freedom
 1989 – Order of the Rising Sun with Paulownia Flowers, Grand Cordon (Japan)
 1986 – Freedoms Foundation, George Washington Medal
 1986 – U.S. Senator John Heinz Award (Jefferson Awards) For Public Service
 1970 – Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Honorary degrees
Honorary degrees were conferred on Shultz from the universities of Columbia, Notre Dame, Loyola, Pennsylvania, Rochester, Princeton, Carnegie Mellon, City University of New York, Yeshiva, Northwestern, Technion, Tel Aviv, Weizmann Institute of Science, Baruch College of New York, Williams College, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Tbilisi State University in the Republic of Georgia, and Keio University in Tokyo.

Selected works
 Shultz, George P. and Goodby, James E. The War that Must Never be Fought, Hoover Press, , 2015.
 Shultz, George P. Issues on My Mind: Strategies for the Future, Hoover Institution Press, , 2013.
 Shultz, George P. and Shoven, John B. Putting Our House in Order: A Guide to Social Security and Health Care Reform. New York: W.W. Norton, , 2008
 Shultz, George P. Economics in Action: Ideas, Institutions, Policies, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, , 1995.
 Shultz, George P. Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State, New York: Scribner's, , 1993.
 Shultz, George P. U.S. Policy and the Dynamism of the Pacific; Sharing the Challenges of Success, East-West Center (Honolulu), Pacific Forum, and the Pacific and Asian Affairs Council, 1988.
 The U.S. and Central America: Implementing the National Bipartisan Commission Report: Report to the President from the Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State (Washington, D.C.), 1986.
 Risk, Uncertainty, and Foreign Economic Policy, D. Davies Memorial Institute of International Studies, 1981.
 (With Kenneth W. Dam) Economic Policy beyond the Headlines, Stanford Alumni Association, , 1977.
 Shultz, George P. Leaders and Followers in an Age of Ambiguity, New York University Press (New York), , 1975.
 (With Albert Rees) Workers and Wages in an Urban Labor Market, University of Chicago Press, , 1970.
 (With Arnold R. Weber) Strategies for the Displaced Worker: Confronting Economic Change, Harper (New York), 1966.
 (Editor and author of introduction, with Robert Z. Aliber) Guidelines, Informal Controls, and the Market Place: Policy Choices in a Full Employment Economy, University of Chicago Press (Chicago), 1966.
 (Editor, with Thomas Whisler) Management Organization and the Computer, Free Press (New York), 1960.
 Automation, a new dimension to old problems by George P. Shultz and George Benedict Baldwin (Washington: Public Affairs Press, 1955).
 (Editor, with John R. Coleman) Labor Problems: Cases and Readings, McGraw (New York), 1953.
 Pressures on Wage Decisions: A Case Study in the Shoe Industry, Wiley (New York),  1951.
 (With Charles Andrew Myers) The Dynamics of a Labor Market: A Study of the Impact of Employment Changes on Labor Mobility, Job Satisfaction, and Company and Union Policies, Prentice-Hall (Englewood Cliffs, NJ), ,1951.

See also
 Foreign policy of the Reagan administration
 International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament
 Nuclear Tipping Point

References

Further reading
 Christison, Kathleen. "The Arab-Israeli Policy of George Shultz". Journal of Palestine Studies 18.2 (1989): 29–47.
 Coleman, Bradley Lynn and Kyle Longley, eds. Reagan and the World: Leadership and National Security, 1981–1989 (University Press of Kentucky, 2017), 319 pp.  essays by scholars
 Hopkins, Michael F. "Ronald Reagan's and George HW Bush's Secretaries of State: Alexander Haig, George Shultz and James Baker." Journal of Transatlantic Studies 6.3 (2008): 228–245.
 Kieninger, Stephan. The diplomacy of détente: cooperative security policies from Helmut Schmidt to George Shultz (Routledge, 2018).

 Laham, Nicholas. Crossing the Rubicon: Ronald Reagan and US Policy in the Middle East (Routledge, 2018).
 Matlock Jr, Jack, et al. Reagan and the World: Leadership and National Security, 1981–1989 (UP of Kentucky, 2017).

 Pee, Robert, and William Michael Schmidli, eds. The Reagan administration, the cold war, and the transition to democracy promotion (Springer, 2018).
 Preston, Andrew. "A Foreign Policy Divided Against Itself: George Shultz versus Caspar Weinberger." in Andrew L. Johns, ed., A Companion to Ronald Reagan (2015): 546–564.
 Rather, Dan and Gary Paul Gates, The Palace Guard (1974)
 Safire, William, Before the Fall: An Inside Look at the Pre-Watergate White House (1975)
 Skoug, Kenneth N. The United States and Cuba Under Reagan and Shultz: A Foreign Service Officer Reports. (Praeger, 1996).
 Taubman, Philip. In the Nation's Service: The Life and Times of George P. Shultz. (Stanford University Press, 2023)
 Wallis, W. Allen. "George J. Stigler: In memoriam". Journal of Political Economy 101.5 (1993): 774–779.
 Williams, Walter. "George Shultz on managing the White House." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 13.2 (1994): 369–375. online

Primary sources
 Shultz, George P. Turmoil and Triumph My Years As Secretary of State (1993) online
 Shultz, George P. and James Timbie. A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World (2020) excerpt

External links

 Foreign Service Journal article on his Lifetime Contributions to American Diplomacy Award.
 Turmoil & Triumph: The George Shultz Years
 .
 Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA)

Video

 FreeToChooseNetwork
  (April 15, 2008, at Stanford)
 George Shultz on panel aired on Democracy Now! program, September 6, 2007

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George Shultz


Manuel González Salmón (20 October 1778, in Cádiz – 18 January 1832, in Madrid), was a Spanish politician and diplomat who served twice as Prime Minister of Spain.

Biography
He was First Secretary at the Spanish Embassy in Paris from 1814 to 1819, when he became Acting Prime Minister of Spain between 12 June and 12 September 1819. After this he became Ambassador to Saxony and later Russia until 1826, when he became Prime Minister for the second time.

Despite the fact that he remained Prime Minister for 6 years, a very long term in Spanish politics, very little was known of his actions during that period. This was because he was dominated by Francisco Calomarde and Luis López Ballesteros, the real leaders of the Cabinet.

He died in January 1832 while still in office.

Sources

Prime Ministers of Spain
Foreign ministers of Spain
1778 births
1832 deaths
19th-century Spanish politicians

Manuel González Salmón


Wildfire modeling is concerned with numerical simulation of wildfires to comprehend and predict fire behavior. Wildfire modeling aims to aid wildfire suppression, increase the safety of firefighters and the public, and minimize damage. Wildfire modeling can also aid in protecting ecosystems, watersheds, and air quality.

Using computational science, wildfire modeling involves the statistical analysis of past fire events to predict spotting risks and front behavior. Various wildfire propagation models have been proposed in the past, including simple ellipses and egg- and fan-shaped models. Early attempts to determine wildfire behavior assumed terrain and vegetation uniformity. However, the exact behavior of a wildfire's front is dependent on a variety of factors, including wind speed and slope steepness. Modern growth models utilize a combination of past ellipsoidal descriptions and Huygens' Principle to simulate fire growth as a continuously expanding polygon. Extreme value theory may also be used to predict the size of large wildfires. However, large fires that exceed suppression capabilities are often regarded as statistical outliers in standard analyses, even though fire policies are more influenced by large wildfires than by small fires.

Objectives

Wildfire modeling attempts to reproduce fire behavior, such as how quickly the fire spreads, in which direction, how much heat it generates. A key input to behavior modeling is the Fuel Model, or type of fuel, through which the fire is burning.  Behavior modeling can also include whether the fire transitions from the surface (a "surface fire") to the tree crowns (a "crown fire"), as well as extreme fire behavior including rapid rates of spread, fire whirls, and tall well-developed convection columns. Fire modeling also attempts to estimate fire effects, such as the ecological and hydrological effects of the fire, fuel consumption, tree mortality, and amount and rate of smoke produced.

Environmental factors

Wildland fire behavior is affected by weather, fuel characteristics, and topography.

Weather influences fire through wind and moisture.  Wind increases the fire spread in the wind direction, higher temperature makes the fire burn faster, while higher relative humidity, and precipitation (rain or snow) may slow it down or extinguish it altogether. Weather involving fast wind changes can be particularly dangerous, since they can suddenly change the fire direction and behavior. Such weather includes cold fronts, foehn winds, thunderstorm downdrafts, sea and land breeze, and diurnal slope winds.

Wildfire fuel includes grass, wood, and anything else that can burn. Small dry twigs burn faster while large logs burn slower; dry fuel ignites more easily and burns faster than wet fuel.

Topography factors that influence wildfires include the orientation toward the sun, which influences the amount of energy received from the sun, and the slope (fire spreads faster uphill). Fire can accelerate in narrow canyons and it can be slowed down or stopped by barriers such as creeks and roads.

These factors act in combination. Rain or snow increases the fuel moisture, high relative humidity slows the drying of the fuel, while winds can make fuel dry faster. Wind can change the fire-accelerating effect of slopes to effects such as downslope windstorms (called Santa Anas, foehn winds, East winds, depending on the geographic location). Fuel properties may vary with topography as plant density varies with elevation or aspect with respect to the sun.

It has long been recognized that "fires create their own weather." That is, the heat and moisture created by the fire feed back into the atmosphere, creating intense winds that drive the fire behavior. The heat produced by the wildfire changes the temperature of the atmosphere and creates strong updrafts, which can change the direction of surface winds. The water vapor released by the fire changes the moisture balance of the atmosphere. The water vapor can be carried away, where the latent heat stored in the vapor is released through condensation.

Approaches

Like all models in computational science, fire models need to strike a balance between fidelity, availability of data, and fast execution. Wildland fire models span a vast range of complexity, from simple cause and effect principles to the most physically complex presenting a difficult supercomputing challenge that cannot hope to be solved faster than real time.

Forest-fire models have been developed since 1940 to the present, but a lot of chemical and thermodynamic questions related to fire behaviour are still to be resolved. Scientists and their forest fire models from 1940 till 2003 are listed in article. Models can be divided into three groups: Empirical, Semi-empirical, and Physically based.

Empirical models

Conceptual models from experience and intuition from past fires can be used to anticipate the future. Many semi-empirical fire spread equations, as in those published by the USDA Forest Service, Forestry Canada, Nobel, Bary, and Gill, and Cheney, Gould, and Catchpole for Australasian fuel complexes have been developed for quick estimation of fundamental parameters of interest such as fire spread rate, flame length, and fireline intensity of surface fires at a point for specific fuel complexes, assuming a representative point-location wind and terrain slope. Based on the work by Fons's in 1946, and Emmons in 1963, the quasi-steady equilibrium spread rate calculated for a surface fire on flat ground in no-wind conditions was calibrated using data of piles of sticks burned in a flame chamber/wind tunnel to represent other wind and slope conditions for the fuel complexes tested.

Two-dimensional fire growth models such as FARSITE and Prometheus, the Canadian wildland fire growth model designed to work in Canadian fuel complexes, have been developed that apply such semi-empirical relationships and others regarding ground-to-crown transitions to calculate fire spread and other parameters along the surface. Certain assumptions must be made in models such as FARSITE and Prometheus to shape the fire growth. For example, Prometheus and FARSITE use the Huygens principle of wave propagation. A set of equations that can be used to propagate (shape and direction) a fire front using an elliptical shape was developed by Richards in 1990. Although more sophisticated applications use a three-dimensional numerical weather prediction system to provide inputs such as wind velocity to one of the fire growth models listed above, the input was passive and the feedback of the fire upon the atmospheric wind and humidity are not accounted for.

Physically based models and coupling with the atmosphere

A simplified physically based two-dimensional fire spread models based upon conservation laws that use radiation as the dominant heat transfer mechanism and convection, which represents the effect of wind and slope, lead to reaction–diffusion systems of partial differential equations.

More complex physical models join computational fluid dynamics models with a wildland fire component and allow the fire to feed back upon the atmosphere. These models include NCAR's Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire-Environment (CAWFE) model developed in 2005, WRF-Fire at NCAR and University of Colorado Denver which combines the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with a spread model by the level-set method, University of Utah's Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Large Eddy Simulation developed in 2009, Los Alamos National Laboratory's FIRETEC developed in, the WUI (wildland–urban interface) Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) developed in 2007, and, to some degree, the two-dimensional model FIRESTAR. These tools have different emphases and have been applied to better understand the fundamental aspects of fire behavior, such as fuel inhomogeneities on fire behavior, feedbacks between the fire and the atmospheric environment as the basis for the universal fire shape, and are beginning to be applied to wildland urban interface house-to-house fire spread at the community-scale.

The cost of added physical complexity is a corresponding increase in computational cost, so much so that a full three-dimensional explicit treatment of combustion in wildland fuels by direct numerical simulation (DNS) at scales relevant for atmospheric modeling does not exist, is beyond current supercomputers, and does not currently make sense to do because of the limited skill of weather models at spatial resolution under 1 km. Consequently, even these more complex models parameterize the fire in some way, for example, papers by Clark use equations developed by Rothermel for the USDA forest service to calculate local fire spread rates using fire-modified local winds. And, although FIRETEC and WFDS carry prognostic conservation equations for the reacting fuel and oxygen concentrations, the computational grid cannot be fine enough to resolve the reaction rate-limiting mixing of fuel and oxygen, so approximations must be made concerning the subgrid-scale temperature distribution or the combustion reaction rates themselves. These models also are too small-scale to interact with a weather model, so the fluid motions use a computational fluid dynamics model confined in a box much smaller than the typical wildfire.

Attempts to create the most complete theoretical model were made by Albini F.A. in USA and Grishin A.M. in Russia. Grishin's work is based on the fundamental laws of physics, conservation and theoretical justifications are provided. The simplified two-dimensional model of running crown forest fire was developed in Belarusian State University by Barovik D.V. and Taranchuk V.B.

Data assimilation

Data assimilation periodically adjusts the model state to incorporate new data using statistical methods. Because fire is highly nonlinear and irreversible, data assimilation for fire models poses special challenges, and standard methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) do not work well. Statistical variability of corrections and especially large corrections may result in nonphysical states, which tend to be preceded or accompanied by large spatial gradients. In order to ease this problem, the regularized EnKF penalizes large changes of spatial gradients in the Bayesian update in EnKF. The regularization technique has a stabilizing effect on the simulations in the ensemble but it does not improve much the ability of the EnKF to track the data: The posterior ensemble is made out of linear combinations of the prior ensemble, and if a reasonably close location and shape of the fire cannot be found between the linear combinations, the data assimilation is simply out of luck, and the ensemble cannot approach the data. From that point on, the ensemble evolves essentially without regard to the data. This is called filter divergence. So, there is clearly a need to adjust the simulation state by a position change rather than an additive correction only. The morphing EnKF combines the ideas of data assimilation with image registration and morphing to provide both additive and position correction in a natural manner, and can be used to change a model state reliably in response to data.

Limitations and practical use

The limitations on fire modeling are not entirely computational. At this level, the models encounter limits in knowledge about the composition of pyrolysis products and reaction pathways, in addition to gaps in basic understanding about some aspects of fire behavior such as fire spread in live fuels and surface-to-crown fire transition.

Thus, while more complex models have value in studying fire behavior and testing fire spread in a range of scenarios, from the application point of view, FARSITE and Palm-based applications of BEHAVE have shown great utility as practical in-the-field tools because of their ability to provide estimates of fire behavior in real time. While the coupled fire-atmosphere models have the ability to incorporate the ability of the fire to affect its own local weather, and model many aspects of the explosive, unsteady nature of fires that cannot be incorporated in current tools, it remains a challenge to apply these more complex models in a faster-than-real-time operational environment. Also, although they have reached a certain degree of realism when simulating specific natural fires, they must yet address issues such as identifying what specific, relevant operational information they could provide beyond current tools, how the simulation time could fit the operational time frame for decisions (therefore, the simulation must run substantially faster than real time), what temporal and spatial resolution must be used by the model, and how they estimate the inherent uncertainty in numerical weather prediction in their forecast. These operational constraints must be used to steer model development.

See also
 Catastrophe modeling
 Extreme value theory
 Fuel model

References

External links
 PROMETHEUS fire growth simulator
 WRF-Fire
 Wildfire Visualizations collected links
 Wildfire simulations on Youtube
 Wildfire visualizations at NCAR
 Coupled Weather-Wildfire Modeling - Basic aspects of wildfire behavior
 Coupled Weather-Wildfire Modeling - Wildfire Case Studies
 Fire research links

Why are wildfires defying long-standing computer models? September 2012

Wildfire prevention
Wildfire suppression
Computational physics
Firefighting
Sustainable forest management
Mathematical modeling
Numerical climate and weather models
Wildfire ecology

Wildfire modeling


Philippe  Gaubert (5 July 1879 – 8 July 1941) was a French musician who was a distinguished performer on the flute, a respected conductor, and a composer, primarily for the flute.

Biography
Gaubert – commonly referred to as Gauberto – was born in Cahors but moved to Paris with his parents when he was six. His mother, who worked as a housekeeper, occasionally cleaned the apartment of Paul Taffanel, who began teaching Philippe the flute. Taffanel was Professor of Flute at the Paris Conservatoire, and Gaubert began studying there in 1893, aged 13.<ref>'Philippe Gaubert (1879-1941), Chamber Music'. at MusicWeb International</ref>

He became one of the most prominent French musicians between the two World Wars. After a prominent career as a flautist with the Paris Opéra, he was appointed in 1919, at the age of forty, to three positions that placed him at the very centre of French musical life:
 Professor of flute in the Conservatoire de Paris (teacher of Marcel Moyse)
 Principal conductor of the Paris Opéra
 Principal conductor of the Orchestre de la Société des Concerts du Conservatoire

In 1907, he participated in the first performance of Maurice Ravel's Introduction and Allegro for harp, flute, clarinet and string quartet. Among his recordings as conductor, one that he made of César Franck's Symphony in D minor (with the Conservatoire forces) is particularly notable.

In 1941, Gaubert died of a stroke in Paris.

Legacy
 Gaubert's playing can be heard on a series of recordings for the French Gramophone Company in 1919.
 His Méthode complète for flute, a collaboration with Taffanel, was published in 1923.
 Journalist Jean Bouzerand, Gaubert's friend, convinced the town of Cahors to create a public garden in Gaubert's honour near the river Lot in the late 1930s.
 When Gaubert was still alive, Albert Roussel dedicated the movement "Monsieur de la Péjaudie" in his piece Joueurs de flûte, op. 27 for flute and piano to him.

Honours
Gaubert was appointed Chevalier de la Legion d'honneur in 1921.

Selected works
Chamber music
 3 Aquarelles, for flute, cello and piano
 Ballade, for flute and piano
 Ballade for viola and piano (1938)
 Berceuse, for flute and piano
 Cantabile et scherzetto, for cornet and piano (1909)
 Concert in F, for orchestra (1932)
 Divertissement Grec, for 2 flutes and harp
 2 Esquisses, for flute and piano
 Fantaisie, for clarinet & piano
 Fantaisie, for flute and piano
 Gavotte en rondeau (after Lully's Les Ballets du roi), for flute and piano
 Les Chants de la mer, for orchestra (1929)
 Madrigal, for flute and piano
 Morceau symphonique, for trombone and piano
 Médailles antiques, for flute, violin and piano
 Nocturne et allegro scherzando, for flute and piano
 Pièce romantique, for flute, cello, and piano
 Romance, for flute and piano (1905)
 Romance, for flute and piano (1908)
 Sicilienne, for flute and piano
 Sonata for Flute and Piano, No. 1
 Sonata for Flute and Piano, No. 2
 Sonata for Flute and Piano, No. 3
 Sonatine, for flute and piano
 Suite, for flute and piano
 Sur l'eau, for flute and piano
 Symphony in F major, for orchestra (1936)
 Tarantelle, for flute, oboe and piano

Vocal
 Soir paien, for voice, flute and piano
 Vocalise en forme de barcarolle, for voice and piano

Media

References

External links
 Brief biographical sketch of Philippe Gaubert on the Naxos Records site
  Société des concerts du Conservatoire

 Phillip Gaubert - Classical Archives

1879 births
1941 deaths
19th-century classical composers
19th-century French composers
19th-century French male musicians
20th-century classical composers
20th-century French composers
20th-century French conductors (music)
20th-century French male musicians
Burials at Père Lachaise Cemetery
Knights of the Legion of Honour
Academic staff of the Conservatoire de Paris
French ballet composers
French classical composers
French classical flautists
French male classical composers
French male conductors (music)
People from Cahors
Prix de Rome for composition
Occitan musicians
20th-century flautists

Philippe Gaubert