In light of multiple significant incidents in its contemporary history, the American environmental movement (EM) seems to be at a crossroads as the national consensus on this movement—forged during the 1970s—starts to crack under the strain of rising challenges. Communities most adversely affected by environmental hazards—usually referred to as communities of color and labor—now seem to be estranged from and ignored by a mostly ecocentric movement they can hardly identify with. Against such a backdrop,I examine the emergence of new dissenting 'anthropocentric' voices within the American EM—most notably the Environmental Justice Movement (EJM)—and discuss the multiple facets of the anthropocentric-ecocentric divide and its bearing on the evolution of the movement. I will further analyze whether the emerging sustainability discourse will be able to contain this ideological divide and offer a reconciliation framework for a harmonization of these movements' objectives, policies, and modes of activism.


This paper offers unique rankings of the extent to which fiscal structures of U.S. states contribute to economic growth. The rankings are novel in two key respects: They are well grounded in established growth theory, in which the effect of taxes depends both on the level of taxes and on the composition of expenditures; and they are derived from actual estimates of the link between fiscal structures and economic growth. Estimates for the latter yield a growth hill, in which the incremental effect of taxes spent on productive services and infrastructure initially rises, reaches a peak, and then declines. Rankings derived from these estimates differ sharply from typical rankings based on levels of taxation alone. Two hypothetical policy experiments highlight both the growth-hill effects of tax investments in productive services and infrastructure and the short- and long-term tradeoffs in attempting to fund strong social services. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.


Summary HIV dynamics studies, based on differential equations, have significantly improved the knowledge on HIV infection. While first studies used simplified short‐term dynamic models, recent works considered more complex long‐term models combined with a global analysis of whole patient data based on nonlinear mixed models, increasing the accuracy of the HIV dynamic analysis. However statistical issues remain, given the complexity of the problem. We proposed to use the SAEM (stochastic approximation expectation‐maximization) algorithm, a powerful maximum likelihood estimation algorithm, to analyze simultaneously the HIV viral load decrease and the CD4 increase in patients using a long‐term HIV dynamic system. We applied the proposed methodology to the prospective COPHAR2–ANRS 111 trial. Very satisfactory results were obtained with a model with latent CD4 cells defined with five differential equations. One parameter was fixed, the 10 remaining parameters (eight with between‐patient variability) of this model were well estimated. We showed that the efficacy of nelfinavir was reduced compared to indinavir and lopinavir.


Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is the most common treatment for coronary artery disease (CAD). The first form of PCI introduced was balloon angioplasty. After that, the advent of coronary stents (tubular wire mesh for intravascular mechanical support) led to a new era in interventional cardiology. Through the implantation of bare metal stents (BMS), all three limitations of balloon angioplasty – coronary artery dissection, elastic recoil and negative remodelling – are prevented. Unfortunately, bare metal stents have their own drawbacks: most significantly, in-stent stenosis as a result of deep focal vascular injury caused by stent struts, followed by excessive tissue proliferation. This drawback has since been addressed with the introduction of drug eluting stents (DES).

Both BMS and DES are permanent stents. As foreign bodies implanted into coronary vessels, they cause the following adverse effects: hypersensitivity reaction, chronic inflammation, elimination of vasomotion, and stent thrombosis.

Biodegradable stents have been set forth as a candidate to overcome the drawbacks of permanent stents through providing temporary mechanical stability for a vulnerable lesion before complete degradation without long-term impairment of vessel function. The two main materials used in biodegradable stents are poly-L-lactide and metal (or AMS, short for absorbable metal stents). One type of AMS is magnesium alloy.

Before AMS become a standard in the treatment of CAD, more research is required to better understand their degradation kinetics and mechanical stability. In order to complete these studies, however, the stents must provide adequate opacity for visualization – wherein lies the challenge. It is not possible to visualize magnesium stents with coronary angiography. Newer imaging modalities such as optical coherence tomography (OCT) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) have been proposed as techniques to visualize these stents and their biodegradation.

The aim of this study was twofold: first, to study the available in-vivo visualization techniques (OCT and IVUS) in order to identify their strengths and weaknesses in assessing the biodegradation process of AMS through comparison with histology; and secondly, to identify a new histological technique for studying the distribution of magnesium and its degradation products into surrounding tissue upon biodegradation.

Four Gottingen mini pigs were implanted with AMS and BMS, and assessed with IVUS and OCT under fluoroscopic guidance at the time of implantation and prior to explantation (4 weeks later). Upon completion of the in-vivo studies, the hearts of the study objects were harvested for histological processing.

Results showed that both IVUS and OCT are effective visualization techniques in studying the biodegradation process of AMS. IVUS is superior to OCT in capturing vessel morphometry thanks to its ease of use and consistently high image quality, thus enabling us to study vessel dimensions during biodegradation. OCT, however, is a better technique for detailed vessel assessment thanks to its higher resolution, and helps us to detect qualitative changes during biodegradation. The two methods correlate moderately during the morphometric analysis. The histological studies on the other hand showed a poorer correlation with the in-vivo techniques. This was likely due to strut integrity compromised during cryosectioning and subsequently washed away after staining, as in an adjunctive study we were able to show that staining did not affect morphometry. The measurements were consistently largest with IVUS, and the smallest with histology (IVUS > OCT > histology).

Though IVUS and OCT together offer a gross understanding of AMS biodegradation, in order to complete this view at a cellular level one must employ a third technique. The technique investigated in this study was titan yellow staining, which proved to be a feasible method for capturing the biodegradation process and the distribution of magnesium within the vessel wall. This study showed for the first time that biodegradable magnesium stents and their degradation products can be visualized effectively ex-vivo, and that analysis of these images will allow us to better understand the changes due to degradation during in-vivo visualization. Its simplicity and speed make titan yellow preferred to the in-vitro corrosion techniques previously employed. The procedure, however, must be further modified in order to improve its effectiveness over a longer period of time. Once this is achieved, it will then be possible to measure the density of degradation products away from struts over time, so as to more thoroughly understand the degradation kinetics.


Unsupervised cross-domain person re-identification (Re-ID) faces two key issues. One is the data distribution discrepancy between source and target domains, and the other is the lack of discriminative information in target domain. From the perspective of representation learning, this paper proposes a novel end-to-end deep domain adaptation framework to address them. For the first issue, we highlight the presence of camera-level sub-domains as a unique characteristic in person Re-ID, and develop a "camera-aware" domain adaptation method via adversarial learning. With this method, the learned representation reduces distribution discrepancy not only between source and target domains but also across all cameras. For the second issue, we exploit the temporal continuity in each camera of target domain to create discriminative information. This is implemented by dynamically generating online triplets within each batch, in order to maximally take advantage of the steadily improved representation in training process. Together, the above two methods give rise to a new unsupervised domain adaptation framework for person Re-ID. Extensive experiments and ablation studies conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate its superiority and interesting properties.


Introduction Establishing whether specific structural and functional configurations of a human gut microbiota are causally related to a given physiologic or disease phenotype is challenging. Twins discordant for obesity provide an opportunity to examine interrelations between obesity and its associated metabolic disorders, diet, and the gut microbiota. Transplanting the intact uncultured or cultured human fecal microbiota from each member of a discordant twin pair into separate groups of recipient germfree mice permits the donors' communities to be replicated, differences between their properties to be identified, the impact of these differences on body composition and metabolic phenotypes to be discerned, and the effects of diet-by-microbiota interactions to be analyzed. In addition, cohousing coprophagic mice harboring transplanted microbiota from discordant pairs provides an opportunity to determine which bacterial taxa invade the gut communities of cage mates, how invasion correlates with host phenotypes, and how invasion and microbial niche are affected by human diets. Cohousing Ln and Ob mice prevents increased adiposity in Ob cage mates (Ob). (A) Adiposity change after 10 days of cohousing. *P < 0.05 versus Ob controls (Student's t test). (B) Bacteroidales from Ln microbiota invade Ob microbiota. Columns show individual mice. Methods Separate groups of germfree mice were colonized with uncultured fecal microbiota from each member of four twin pairs discordant for obesity or with culture collections from an obese (Ob) or lean (Ln) co-twin. Animals were fed a mouse chow low in fat and rich in plant polysaccharides, or one of two diets reflecting the upper or lower tertiles of consumption of saturated fats and fruits and vegetables based on the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Ln or Ob mice were cohoused 5 days after colonization. Body composition changes were defined by quantitative magnetic resonance. Microbiota or microbiome structure, gene expression, and metabolism were assayed by 16S ribosomal RNA profiling, whole-community shotgun sequencing, RNA-sequencing, and mass spectrometry. Host gene expression and metabolism were also characterized. Results and Discussion The intact uncultured and culturable bacterial component of Ob co-twins' fecal microbiota conveyed significantly greater increases in body mass and adiposity than those of Ln communities. Differences in body composition were correlated with differences in fermentation of short-chain fatty acids (increased in Ln), metabolism of branched-chain amino acids (increased in Ob), and microbial transformation of bile acid species (increased in Ln and correlated with down-regulation of host farnesoid X receptor signaling). Cohousing Ln and Ob mice prevented development of increased adiposity and body mass in Ob cage mates and transformed their microbiota's metabolic profile to a leanlike state. Transformation correlated with invasion of members of Bacteroidales from Ln into Ob microbiota. Invasion and phenotypic rescue were diet-dependent and occurred with the diet representing the lower tertile of U.S. consumption of saturated fats, and upper tertile of fruits and vegetables, but not with the diet representing the upper tertile of saturated fats, and lower tertile of fruit and vegetable consumption. These results reveal that transmissible and modifiable interactions between diet and microbiota influence host biology. Transforming Fat to Thin How much does the microbiota influence the host's phenotype? Ridaura et al. (1241214 ; see the Perspective by Walker and Parkhill) obtained uncultured fecal microbiota from twin pairs discordant for body mass and transplanted them into adult germ-free mice. It was discovered that adiposity is transmissible from human to mouse and that it was associated with changes in serum levels of branched-chain amino acids. Moreover, obese-phenotype mice were invaded by members of the Bacteroidales from the lean mice, but, happily, the lean animals resisted invasion by the obese microbiota. Mice carrying gut bacteria from lean humans protect their cage mates from the effects of gut bacteria from fat humans. [Also see Perspective by Walker and Parkhill] The role of specific gut microbes in shaping body composition remains unclear. We transplanted fecal microbiota from adult female twin pairs discordant for obesity into germ-free mice fed low-fat mouse chow, as well as diets representing different levels of saturated fat and fruit and vegetable consumption typical of the U.S. diet. Increased total body and fat mass, as well as obesity-associated metabolic phenotypes, were transmissible with uncultured fecal communities and with their corresponding fecal bacterial culture collections. Cohousing mice harboring an obese twin's microbiota (Ob) with mice containing the lean co-twin's microbiota (Ln) prevented the development of increased body mass and obesity-associated metabolic phenotypes in Ob cage mates. Rescue correlated with invasion of specific members of Bacteroidetes from the Ln microbiota into Ob microbiota and was diet-dependent. These findings reveal transmissible, rapid, and modifiable effects of diet-by-microbiota interactions.


The world's religions provide a wide range of competing religious claims. The problem of religious diversity is that, while many of these claims are inconsistent with one another, they often seem to rest on roughly equal evidence. For this reason, it is not clear which religion, if any, is true. My dissertation examines the various responses to this problem and proposes a unique solution. While some claim that the wide disagreement on religious matters is reason to discard all religious claims as false, I provide an extensive argument in favor of a particularly religious position I call "Critical Pluralism." Critical Pluralism occupies a middle ground between those who claim that all major religions are somehow equally true and those who claim that one religion alone is true. On my view, religious belief systems often provide inadequate yet partially true accounts of a transcendent reality. Many religions approximate the truth to some degree. Some even do so a great deal better than others. Nonetheless, there is not a single religion that exclusively captures the truth.


Abstract The Late Cretaceous white chalk of the Isle of Rügen, northeastern Germany, yields a highly diverse marine floral and faunal assemblage with more than 1,400 described species, including pennatulacean corals. All the new collected material, composed of fragments of the axial rods, belongs to 'Graphularia' quadrata Voigt, 1958, which was revised, and a new species, 'Graphularia' rugia. Analyses of the microstructure of axial rods of modern and fossil sea pens facilitate the discussion of the systematic relationships of the fossil material. 'Graphularia' quadrata shows an affinity to the Funiculinidae, whereas the new species 'Graphularia' rugia resembles the axial structure of the Pennatulidae.


Understanding the asymptotic behavior of wide networks is of considerable interest. In this work, we present a general method for analyzing this large width behavior. The method is an adaptation of Feynman diagrams, a standard tool for computing multivariate Gaussian integrals. We apply our method to study training dynamics, improving existing bounds and deriving new results on wide network evolution during stochastic gradient descent. Going beyond the strict large width limit, we present closed-form expressions for higher-order terms governing wide network training, and test these predictions empirically.


All programming languages, even declarative languages, must be executed on Von Neumann architecture machines. Therefore, a declarative language needs an operational model, close enough to typical Von Neumann architecture, so that implementation on any given machine is straightforward, and executes without any unexpected inefficiencies. On the other hand, the model should be independent of any specific machine to make it as portable as possible. Therefore, its operations should correspond to operations of high level data structures (i.e., stacks, registers, etc.). An implementation model for a given programming language, L, provides a common "abstract" operational model, or "abstract machine" where L-programs will be executed. The model should also be verifiable, to ensure that it implements the language correctly.
This dissertation defines a correct implementation model (i.e. an abstract machine) for PowerFuL, an untyped higher-order functional programming language, which has been enhanced with logic programming capabilities via relative set abstraction. The abstract machine is first defined operationally and then the description is formalized, to verify its correctness. The operational model is a verified implementation model. Unlike other implementation models for functional logic languages, it deals with sets as first-class objects instead of sets of solutions and has an elegant treatment of inequality constraints.


Water accumulating on microstructural transitions inside a snowpack is often considered a prerequisite for wet snow avalanches. Recent advances in numerical snowpack modeling allow for an explicit simulation of this process. We analyze detailed snowpack simulations driven by meteorological stations in three different climate regimes (Alps, Central Andes, and Pyrenees), with accompanying wet snow avalanche activity observations. Predicting wet snow avalanche activity based on whether modeled water accumulations inside the snowpack locally exceed 5–6% volumetric liquid water content is providing a higher prediction skill than using thresholds for daily mean air temperature, or the daily sum of the positive snow energy balance. Additionally, the depth of the maximum water accumulation in the simulations showed a significant correlation with observed avalanche size. Direct output from detailed snow cover models thereby is able to provide a better regional assessment of dangerous slope aspects and potential avalanche size than traditional methods.


The annual European Migration Network policy reports examine the main political developments in the area of migration and asylum at EU Member State level. This fourth annual policy analysis report focuses on the period from January to December 2007. This report for Ireland compiles information on migration trends, legislative developments and policy implementation issues. Important developments in the period included the publication of new immigration, residence and protection legislation; the implementation of the Employment Permits Act 2006; and implementation of Council Directives 2005/71/EC, 2005/85/EC, 2001/55/EC and 2004/38/EC.


Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.


An experimental study of the flow behavior inside the channels of an 8-blade backswept low specific speed impeller at design and off-design conditions is presented. The measurements took place at both the inlet and the outlet of the impeller channel at the mid height of the channel passage. The particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique was used to measure the velocity components in the inlet and outlet frames of the impeller channel. The flow behavior inside the channel, the mean normalized primary and secondary velocity components at six radial locations inside the channels, and turbulence intensity in terms of the variation in the relative velocity components were investigated at the design condition, 75%, 50%, 40%, 30% and 25% of the design flow rate. The results demonstrated a well behaved flow with no evidence of flow separation at the design condition. The fluid flow inside the impeller channel started experiencing a flow separation, when the flow rate is reduced, which propagated throughout the channel passage and caused the channel to stall with a large recirculation zone at severe off-design flow rates.


Just as theorists predicted, developments in sports spectatorship technology have changed the way we think about and enjoy sports. Each year, eSports amasses a larger following. Though its existence traces back to the early 1980s, competitive gaming has emerged recently as a superpower that is seemingly impossible to ignore. But why do hundreds of thousands of people gather at their computers, or at sold-out arenas to watch players compete at video games? In this study, eSports are analyzed through the lens of the disposition theory of sports spectatorship. The results indicate that the enjoyment of watching eSports competitions operates similarly to that of traditional sports spectatorship. Familiarity with the teams and the sport or game being viewed seems to be an important factor in how eSports are enjoyed, and evidence suggests that watching eSports engenders the same or similar reactions as does watching traditional sports. This study aims to pave the way for future, more robust research on eSports spectatorship and why people enjoy watching other people play video games.


Writing, which has been applied on different surfaces in different styles since it was invented, is a visual reflection of language. While the visual elements involved in the definition were made up of pictograms created through the stylization of objects, they have evolved into an alphabetical system through changes occurred over 2000 years. In the beginning, around 3200 B.C., writing was used in order to keep an account of the products among Summerians;however, it was used for different purposes at later periods. Mankind, now, began to communicate through writing as well as speaking and succeeded in transferring their scientific and cultural heritage through writing, which was more permanent than speech, to later generations. Stylistically, it would not be wrong to assume that all writing characters used up to the present time have been created through artistic considerations. Accordingly, it is seen in the history of art that writing has been used as an aesthetic element together with artistic disciplines such as painting, architecture, sculpture etc. Now, it is such that writing is an element of art rather than a syntax of symbols representing a language. Moreover, it is observed in the works created by using writing and painting together that polyphonic work of arts are created through the integration of elements which are essentially different. Therefore, typography, which may be defined as the arranging of letters artistically and functionally, is an indispensable part media, which is used as a diversified way of communication in every part of life. Visual communication process, which began with mural paintings, caused the characters to gradually change into an indicator as well and made it possible for them to be used as an artistic language. The historical process of the relationship between writing and art have emerged in the way writing is used as a visual language and in various art disciplines. As a result, this article aims to discuss the relationship of typography and painting through certain examples.


Although superhydrophobic coatings are commercially available, their weak mechanical durability hinders their large-scale applications such as for structural materials. Here a general press-in-mold method is reported to rapidly fabricate super-robust and non-fluorinated superhydrophobic free-standing items, through dispersing hydrophobic SiO2 nanoparticles in a series of polymers. The mechanical and chemical strength can be greatly improved by increasing the fabrication pressure, and the materials are found to retain superhydrophobicity after a knife/file scratch test, a liquid nitrogen test, severe sand/water impacts, acidic/alkali corrosion and 2000 cm sandpaper abrasion. These materials achieved better abrasion resistance than commercial superhydrophobic coatings and a higher retention ratio after abrasion tests and hardness than those of bricks. Radar diagrams were used to generalize the results of the mechanical and chemical tests to compare the material performances of SiO2/polymer blocks with those of bricks and commercial superhydrophobic coatings. The SiO2/polymer blocks achieved much better overall performance. This simple method has great potential for making either small domestic items or structural materials with robust superhydrophobicity.


Future climate predictions by global circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive indicate that the recent poleward shift of the eddy‐driven jet streams will continue throughout the 21st century. Here it is shown that differences in the projected magnitude of the trend in the Southern Hemisphere are well correlated with biases in the latitude of the jet in the simulation of 20th century climate. Furthermore, the latitude of the jet in the models' 20th century climatology is correlated with biases in the internal variability of the jet stream, as quantified by the time scale of the annular mode. Thus an equatorward bias in the position of the jet is associated with both enhanced persistence of the annular mode, and an increased poleward shift of the jet. These relationships appear to be robust throughout the year except in the austral summer, when differences in forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone, make it impossible to compare the response of one model with another. These results suggest that the fidelity of a model's simulation of the 20th century climate may be related to its fitness for climate prediction. The cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the implications for climate change projections.


Address for Correspondence / Yaz›flma Adresi: Mehmet Akif Topcuoglu, MD, Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey Phone: +90 312 305 18 06 e.mail: firstname.lastname@example.com doi:10.5152/dcbybd.2012.09 Aim: Extubation failure often complicates the recovery phase of a myasthenic crisis (MC). Bedside functional residual capacity (FRC) is a relatively new technique shown to be promising in the improvement of ventilation management in the intensive care unit (ICU), and may have a role in the estimation of extubation success. Since the prediction of extubation success is difficult due to the absence of formally evaluated disease-specific criteria, the appropriateness of any strategy described for non-neuromuscular conditions should be validated for specific neuromuscular diseases such as MC. In accordance, we designed a pilot study to determine the feasibility of bedside FRC measurement in the prediction of extubation success in MC and to determine its yield when added to the conventional parameters. Material and Methods: We prospectively studied the additive value of bedside FRC measurements to predict extubation outcome in 11 MC episodes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC), sensitivity and specificity of all weaning and extubation indices that passed exploratory analysis were determined. Results: The frequency of extubation failure, defined as the need for reinstitution of ventilatory support within 72 hours of planned endotracheal tube removal, was 55% in this study population, in which all patients met the standard weaning indices indicating safety of extubation. The risk of extubation failure was connected to higher airway pressures (peak inspiratory and plato pressures; PIP and Pplato; ROC AUCs: 0.933 and 0.917), increased gradient of end-tidal CO2 to arterial CO2 (CO2 gradient; ROC AUC:0.900) and total airway care score (ACS; ROC AUC:0.983), but not to FRC, the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS-II) and the traditional weaning criteria such as the rapid shallow breathing index (RSBI) and mouth occlusion pressure (P0.1). Although perhaps useful when measurable, the utility of maximal inspiratory/expiratory mouth pressures (MIP and MEP) was also low due to the inability of MC patients to perform the maneuvers required to obtain these parameters. In contrast, FRC measurement was easily attainable at the bedside, with zero risk to the patient and correlated well to the aerated lung volume measured by chest CT (r=0.717). Conclusion: This preliminary study suggests that bedside FRC measurement is safe and feasible for long-term monitoring of intubated myasthenic patients. Its utility in determining weaning and extubation outcomes requires further studies with larger samples. Standard weaning parameters may not be accurate enough in the prediction of extubation outcome in MC, probably reflecting differences in the pathophysiology of failure of extubation and weaning. As a new semi-objective measurement of pulmonary secretion status, ACS can be helpful in the identification of the risk of extubation failure. (Yogun Bakim Derg 2012; 3: 36-42)


Public Health Genomics (PHG) has been defined as the responsible and effective translation of genome-based knowledge for the benefit of population health (Bellagio workshop, April 2005). The Italian Network of Public Health Genomics (GENISAP, http://istituti.unicatt.it/igiene_1830.html) was founded in 2006 as a follow-up of the PHG European Network (PHGEN) research activities. It is coordinated by Walter Ricciardi and Stefania Boccia from the Institute of Hygiene of the Faculty of Medicine of the Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome. The aim of GENISAP is to integrate genomics into public health policy and practice in Italy in a responsible and effective manner. As such, GENISAP members elaborated the present document to describe the state of the art of PHG in Italy, in order to encourage the generation of evidence-based knowledge on genetic testing especially for common complex disorders. In Italy, about 560,000 genetic tests, including 311,069 cytogenetic and 248,691 molecular analyses, were recorded in 2007, but there is limited experience of translation of genomic testing for complex diseases into clinical practice (mostly on hereditary breast/ovarian and colorectal cancer syndromes). The collaboration between the Italian Health Ministry - that has introduced an action plan on genomics and predictive medicine in the 2010-2012 National Prevention Plan - and the GENISAP network will result in a fast advancement of Public Health Genomics in Italy.


Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is often comorbid with other psychiatric conditions in adults. Yet, less is known about its relationship with common metabolic disorders and how sex and ageing affect the overall comorbidity patterns of adult ADHD. We aimed to examine associations of adult ADHD with several common psychiatric and metabolic conditions. Through the linkage of multiple Swedish national registers, 5,551,807 adults aged 18 to 64 years and living in Sweden on December 31, 2013 were identified and assessed for clinical diagnoses of adult ADHD, substance use disorder (SUD), depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and hypertension. Logistic regression models and regression standardization method were employed to obtain estimates of prevalence, prevalence difference (PD), and prevalence ratio (PR). All comorbid conditions of interest were more prevalent in adults with ADHD (3.90% to 44.65%) than in those without (0.72% to 4.89%), with the estimated PRs being over nine for psychiatric conditions (p < 0.001) and around two for metabolic conditions (p < 0.001). Sex differences in the prevalence of comorbidities were observed among adults with ADHD. Effect modification by sex was detected on the additive scale and/or multiplicative scale for the associations of adult ADHD with all comorbidities. ADHD remained associated with all comorbidities in older adults aged 50 to 64 when all conditions were assessed from age 50 onwards. The comorbidity patterns of adult ADHD underscore the severity and clinical complexity of the disorder. Clinicians should remain vigilant for a wide range of psychiatric and metabolic problems in ADHD affected adults of all ages and both sexes.


This paper presents the consensus reached by a panel of experts on the role of fibrates in reducing coronary heart disease (CHD). The emphasis is on the application of these agents in clinical practice. Evidence that low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) play a major role in the development of CHD, plus the roles of lifestyle modification and statin treatment in raising HDL-C, are briefly reviewed. Current thinking on single agent and combination therapies with fibrates is discussed with particular relevance to patients with low baseline HDL-C- whether receiving statins or not - and those with features of the metabolic syndrome. Recommendations on the practical use of fibrates are made in the light of recently published international guidelines on HDL-C management and the relevant evidence base.


I think of the kinds of questions that I've heard female researchers and students ask of Italian feminism in Sydney, Melbourne and Auckland. I think of a certain ease of dialogue between men and feminists that is less suspicious than what we're used to in Italy. There is an openness to the other and to otherness, which might derive from Australia being a multicultural society. The relativisation of Europe, and even more so of Italy, happens spontaneously when looked at from Australia with Asia in between. All this adds up to an 'Australian Effect' that has profoundly changed me and that in turn changes my way of talking about the 'Italian Effect'. I am therefore writing from within a relationship to this context that already marks me, questions me and dislocates me, and my intention is to yield not so much a thought as a practice of thought , born and bred in close proximity to a political practice.


With the wide use of smartphones with Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors, the analysis of the population from GPS traces has been actively explored in the last decade. We propose herein a brand new population prediction model to capture the population trends in a fine-grained point of interest (POI) densely distributed over large areas and understand the relationship of each POI in terms of spatiality preservation. We propose a new framework, called Spatiality Preservable Factorized Regression (SPFR), to realize this model. The SPFR is inspired by the success of the recently proposed bilinear Poisson regression and the concept of multi-task learning with factorization approach and the graph proximity regularization. Given that the proposed model is written simply in terms of optimization, we achieve scalability using our model. The results of our empirical evaluation, which used a massive dataset of GPS logs in the Tokyo region over 32 M count logs, show that our model is comparable to the stateof-the-art methods in terms of capturing the population trend across meshes while retaining spatial preservation in finer mesh areas.


ISOLATION AND STRUCTURE ELUCIDATION OF ANTIPROLIFERATIVE NATURAL PRODUCTS FROM MADAGASCAR Brian Thacher Murphy As part of an ongoing search for bioactive natural products from the endemic rainforests and surrounding ocean in Madagascar, a total of four extracts were comprehensively studied and were found to contain novel and/or bioactive compounds. The following dissertation discusses the isolation, structure elucidation, and bioactivity studies of these isolates. The following compounds from plants of Madagascar's rainforest are discussed in the order they were studied: flavonoids and long-chain compounds from Schizolaena hystrix, a cyclohexene derivative and butenolides from Artabotrys madagascariensis, and limonoids from Malleastrum sp. From the Malagasy marine ascidian Trididemnum sp. collected in the Indian Ocean, the identification as well as the potential biosynthetic origin of polyketide derived bistramides is reported. In an attempt to explore other facets of natural products chemistry, the second part of this dissertation discusses the process of designing potential anticancer agents based on the scaffold of a natural product. The biomolecular target of these studies is an enzyme that is overexpressed in tumor cells, namely Cdc25B, whose inhibition catalyzes cell cycle arrest at the G2/M transition of the cell cycle. Several analogs of a potent Cdc25B inhibitor were synthesized and tested in the enzyme-based assay.


POSTER The documentation of Prehistoric rockwall art is one of the most interesting and developed applications of 3D scanning, since it allows to obtain high resolution documentation of this kind of manifestations. However, in spite of the generalization of these kinds of applications, it is still an expensive technology beyond the funding possibilities of many research projects. However, alternative low-cost methods can be implemented in order to provide small projects with funding limitations with this kind of documentation. In this poster, we present the methodology used for documenting the Paleolithic rock wall paintings from El Nino cave (Ayna, Spain). Using a total station, digital photo camera and the ArcGIS software, a 3D photogrammetric reconstruction of these paintings was made, despite the limited funds available. This reconstruction provides a useful documentation for Paleolithic paintings analyses and heritage management, as well as a valuable tool for the popularization of Paleolithic rock wall paintings.


Valuation of information systems (IS) and information technology (IT) has gained a lot of attention over the years resulting in a broad range of approaches. We examine the use of valuation methods in a case study of a large public organization. Life cycle analysis was used to position and relate valuation methods. We found that eight different methods were used and that there was limited coordination among these methods. We argue that there is a need for more coherence among the use of methods in which the input and results of one method can be used by other methods. To obtain more coherence we recommend for the short term to select and use methods for valuation as an integrated set, and for the long term we plea for architecture-based valuation, to connect the decision-making process on value of IS/IT to the organization's enterprise architecture.


A theory is developed for the propagation of stress waves in a porous elastic solid containing compressible viscous fluid. The emphasis of the present treatment is on materials where fluid and solid are of comparable densities as for instance in the case of water‐saturated rock. The paper denoted here as Part I is restricted to the lower frequency range where the assumption of Poiseuille flow is valid. The extension to the higher frequencies will be treated in Part II. It is found that the material may be described by four nondimensional parameters and a characteristic frequency. There are two dilatational waves and one rotational wave. The physical interpretation of the result is clarified by treating first the case where the fluid is frictionless. The case of a material containing viscous fluid is then developed and discussed numerically. Phase velocity dispersion curves and attenuation coefficients for the three types of waves are plotted as a function of the frequency for various combinations of the characteristic parameters.


BACKGROUND
A cross-over trial design is more powerful than a parallel groups design, but requires that treatment effects do not carry over from one period of the trial to the next. We focus here on interventions in chronic disease populations where the control is routine care: in such cases we cannot assume the intervention effect is easily washed out in crossing over from the experimental intervention back to the control.

METHODS
We introduce an alternative trial design for these situations, and investigate its performance. One group is assessed before and after the experimental intervention, whereas two other groups provide respective, independent treatment comparisons in each period. We call this a dog-leg design because of the pattern of assessments in the three groups. The dog-leg design is reminiscent of a stepped wedge design, but with a reduced schedule of assessments and with the notable difference that not all groups receive the intervention.

RESULTS
If the correlation between baseline and follow-up is <0.72, the dog-leg design is more efficient than a parallel groups design with a baseline assessment. The dog-leg design also requires fewer assessments in total than a parallel groups design where participants are only assessed once, at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS
The dog-leg design is simple, and has some attractive properties. Though there is a risk of differential attrition in the three arms, the design's good performance relative to alternatives makes it a useful addition to the methodologist's toolkit.


For Frederick the Great, the prescription for warfare was simple: kurz und vives ("short and lively") wars that relied upon swift, powerful, and decisive military operations. Robert Citino takes us on a dramatic march through Prussian and German military history to show how that primal theme played out time and time again. Citino focuses on operational warfare to demonstrate continuity in German military campaigns from the time of Elector Frederick Wilhelm and his great "sleigh-drive" against the Swedes to the age of Adolf Hitler and the blitzkrieg to the gates of Moscow. Along the way, he underscores the role played by the Prussian army in elevating a small, vulnerable state to the ranks of the European powers, describes how nineteenth-century victories over Austria and France made the German army the most respected in Europe, and reviews the lessons learned from the trenches of World War I. Through this long view, Citino reveals an essential recurrent pattern characterized by rapid troop movements and surprise attacks, maneuvers to outflank the enemy, and a determination to annihilate the opposition that made it possible for the Germans to fight armies often larger than their own. He highlights the aggressiveness of Prussian and German commanders trained simply to find the enemy and keep attacking and destroys the myth of Auftragstaktik ("flexible command"), replacing it with the independence of subordinate commanders. He also brings new interpretations to well-known operations, such as Moltke's 1866 campaign and the opening campaign in 1914, while introducing readers to less familiar but important battles like Langensalza and the Annaberg. The German way of war, as Citino shows, was fostered by the development of a widely accepted and deeply embedded military culture that supported and rewarded aggression. His book offers a fresh look at one of the most remarkable, respected, and reviled militaries of the past half millennium and marks another sterling contribution to the history of operational warfare."


Overweight and obese physical stature has been associated with increased endothelial dysfunction and the development of cardiovascular disease. This dysfunction may further be progressed as this population develops Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes. To understand the mechanisms responsible for the vascular dysfunction in the Metabolic Syndrome participants in our research study, we aimed to identify if there is a difference in the Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) as an effective measurement of peripheral arterial stiffness. Previous studies show that adults with higher superficial femoral artery stiffness experienced greater perceived fatigue and thus are less likely to continue daily physical activity. PURPOSE: To determine if daily ambulatory activity, as measured by peak cadence accelerometers, is associated with carotid arterial compliance and vascular response in young sedentary healthy and Metabolic Syndrome women. METHODS: 32 sedentary control women and 7 Metabolic Syndrome women (N=39) wore an accelerometer for 7 consecutive days to determine their daily activity and sedentary phases. Carotid and radial arterial compliance was measured using Tonometry technique to gather data on PWV (m/s) in both groups of women. Each participant performed a graded handgrip exercise procedure on a dynamic handgrip device while beat-to-beat blood pressure, brachial artery diameter, and blood flow with Doppler Ultrasound and B-mode imaging were measured simultaneously. Statistical analysis included correlations between daily step activity and peripheral arterial stiffness. Additional group comparisons were analyzed by a ANOVA using Sigmastat Analysis software. RESULTS: Metabolic Syndrome women, unlike the control group of women have a positive correlation (0.760, p=0.0476) between PWV and total time of sedentary bouts. Metabolic Equivalents (METs) compared with total time in sedentary breaks displayed a stronger, positive correlation (0.637, p=0.0000882) in the group of control women than the group of Metabolic Syndrome women. Stronger, negative correlation (-0.517, p=0.00242) was also found between the average kilocalories burnt off per hour and the total time in sedentary bouts in the control group of women. The Metabolic Syndrome group have a significantly (p<0.05) diminished arterial conductance in the brachial artery during handgrip conductance from rest to peak (1.5 watts). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that individuals who sustain longer sedentary periods in their daily activity, such as Metabolic Syndrome women, have higher peripheral stiffness. The increase in peripheral arterial stiffness would indicate a significant rational for the mechanisms responsible for the vascular response deficit in Metabolic Syndrome participants during the small muscle exercise. Research reported in this publication was supported by an Institutional Development Award (IDeA) from the National Institute of General Medicine Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under grant number P20GM103451.


The solar activity can be considered one of the main sources of hazards not only affecting launch operations but also the reliability of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as Galileo, and Satellite Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS), such as EGNOS. Thus, it could impact critically on GNSS-based services, among other impacts on society. In particular, Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events pose a serious health risk to humans in space and can result in increased radiation doses for high-latitude aircraft flights and can constitute a serious concern for the microelectronics and other hardware elements of satellites, aircraft and launchers. In addition, severe malfunctioning of GNSS and SBAS systems have been reported as well. In this way, nowadays, it shall become a priority to provide GNSS users with predictions and/or warning alerts on potential disturbances associated to increased solar activity. For instance, such predictions or early warnings could allow significant mitigation of the risk of radiation damage by preventive actions and improve of the reliability of GNSS systems.

In this context, the web-based SEPsFLAREs prototype system has been recently deployed to serve as a provider of early warnings and predictions of solar flares and Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. The system covers the pre-flare, post-flare/pre-SEP, and intra-SEP scenarios by means of: (1) prediction of solar flares occurrence from 48- to 6-hour ahead based on Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP), (2) prediction of the SEP onset and occurrence based on UMASEP predictor and the so-called Warning Tool, and, finally, (3) prediction of the SEP peak and duration once there is evidence of a SEP occurrence.

Regarding the performance of the flare predictor, it has been evaluated considering a dataset from January, 2014 to May, 2014 (with a training period of 32 years). It has been found that the 24-hour forecast horizon provides the best performance, with a Probability of Detection (POD), a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) estimations of 63.8%, 99.0% and 0.5 respectively for predicting X-class flares; and of 88.7%, 87.0% and 0.59 respectively, for predicting M-class flares. Regarding the SEP occurrence and onset prediction, it has been validated taking into account all 129 SEP events from January, 1994 to June, 2014. Then, a POD of 86.82%, a FAR of 25.83%, and an Average Warning Time (AWT) of 3.93 h have been obtained. Regarding the evaluation of the Warning Tool, the best performance has led to a POD of 58.3%, a FAR of 90.1%, and an AWT of 23.1 h. Regarding the SEP flux intensity and duration prediction, taking into account the same input dataset, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of SEP peak time predictions of 11.3 h has been obtained, a MAE of peak intensity predictions of 0.53 in log10 units of pfu, and a MAE of SEP end time predictions of 28.8 h.

In addition, SEPsFLAREs system provides as well, from ESA's MONITOR server, two real-time products on solar flares nowcasting based on ionospheric monitorization by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and a world-wide network of GNSS receivers from the International GNSS Service (IGS): (1) the GNSS Solar Flare Detector (GSFLAD) and (2) the Sunlit Ionosphere Sudden TEC Enhancement Detector (SISTED), both developed by authors of this work.


Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is a ubiquitous molecule in the Universe. It is a compound that is easily produced in significant yields in prebiotic simulation experiments using a reducing atmosphere. HCN can spontaneously polymerise under a wide set of experimental conditions. It has even been proposed that HCN polymers could be present in objects such as asteroids, moons, planets and, in particular, comets. Moreover, it has been suggested that these polymers could play an important role in the origin of life. In this review, the simple organics and biomonomers that have been detected in HCN polymers, the analytical techniques and procedures that have been used to detect and characterise these molecules and an exhaustive classification of the experimental/environmental conditions that favour the formation of HCN polymers are summarised. Nucleobases, amino acids, carboxylic acids, cofactor derivatives and other compounds have been identified in HCN polymers. The great molecular diversity found in HCN polymers encourages their placement at the central core of a plausible protobiological system.


Two fundamental processes usually arise in the production planning of several industries. One of them consists of deciding how many final products of each type have to be produced in each period of the planning horizon, the well known lot sizing problem. The other process consists of cutting rectangular plates in order to produce smaller pieces used in the assembly of final products, the much studied cutting stock problem. In this paper we propose to join these two problems in order to obtain a global optimum solution. Toward this goal, we formulated a novel combined mathematical programming model that captures the synergy in solving both problems in conjunction. Due to the great complexity of the proposed problem, we have relaxed the model and solved it by an exact approach using the simplex method with the column generation technique. We present some sets of computational tests, analyzed over three different aspects. These results demonstrate that, by combining the problems, it is possible to obtain significant gains compared to the usual industrial practice.


Background: Echocardiographic quantitation of degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) is recommended whenever possible in clinical guidelines but is criticized and its scalability to routine clinical practice doubted. We hypothesized that echocardiographic DMR quantitation, performed in routine clinical practice by multiple practitioners, predicts independently long-term survival and thus is essential to DMR management. Methods: We included patients diagnosed with isolated mitral valve prolapse from 2003 to 2011 and any degree of mitral regurgitation quantified by any physician/sonographer in routine clinical practice. Clinical/echocardiographic data acquired at diagnosis were retrieved electronically. The end point was mortality under medical treatment analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazard models. Results: The cohort included 3914 patients (55% male) mean age (±standard deviation) 62±17 years with left ventricular ejection fraction 63±8% and median after routinely-measured effective regurgitant orifice area (EROA) [interquartile range], 19 [0–40] mm2. During follow-up (6.7±3.1 years), 696 patients died under medical management, and 1263 underwent mitral surgery. In multivariate analysis, routinely-measured EROA was associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–1.24; P<0.0001 per 10 mm2) independently of left ventricular ejection fraction and end-systolic diameter, symptoms, and age/comorbidities. The association between routinely-measured EROA and mortality persisted with competitive risk modeling (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.10–1.20; P<0.0001 per 10 mm2), or in patients without guideline-based class I/II surgical triggers (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.10–1.28; P<0.0001 per 10 mm2) and in all subgroups examined (all P<0.01). Spline curve analysis showed that, compared with general population mortality, excess mortality appears for moderate DMR (EROA ≥20 mm2), becomes notable at EROA ≥30 mm2, and steadily increases with higher EROA levels (eg, higher EROA levels beyond the 40 mm2 threshold). Conclusions: Echocardiographic DMR quantitation is scalable to routine practice and is independently associated with clinical outcome. Routinely-measured EROA is strongly associated with long-term survival under medical treatment. Excess mortality versus the general population appears in the moderate DMR range and steadily increases with higher EROA. Hence, individual EROA values should be integrated into therapeutic considerations, in addition to categorical DMR grading.


The transition to flowering is one of the most important development switches in the life of a plant. For some species this switch appears only once in life and is therefore tightly regulated. Flowering is directly coupled to reproductive success and therefore has to occur under optimal conditions. Several genetic pathways regulate the transition to flowering. CO is a central component of the photoperiod pathway and mediates flowering in response to day length by regulating the expression of FT. CO encodes a B-Box transcription factor that also contains a plant specific CCT-domain. Since CO does not contain a known DNA-binding motif I conducted yeast-two-hybrid screening to identify proteins that recruit CO to DNA. In addition, I conducted yeast-one-hybrid screening to identify proteins regulating FT expression. Here I present evidence that CO interacts with all members of the heterotrimeric CCAAT-box-binding factor (CBF). The CBF-complex consists of three subunits named HAP2, HAP3 and HAP5. HAP3 and HAP5 dimerize and associate with the DNA-binding subunit HAP2. Both CCT-domain and HAP2 proteins contain the HAP2-DNA-binding motif. Mutations affecting conserved residues in this domain cause loss-of-function phenotypes in CCT-domain proteins, which might be due to an impaired interaction with HAP2. The HAP3a subunit is co-regulated with CO by GIGANTEA and expression of a putative dominant negative transgene causes late flowering. MtN19 was found to interact with the CCT-domain of CO and with the FT promoter in yeast. Studies on this gene suggest a possible regulation by natural antisense transcription since transgenic plants expressing a dsRNAi construct are late or early flowering. The early flowering lines express MtN19, CO and FT at high levels. Late flowering plants can not be rescued by overexpression of CO by the 35S-promoter. MtN19 and CO are both expressed at the end of the light period in long days implying that they might function together to regulate FT expression. FIDGET (FIT) was isolated by yeast-one-hybrid screening and found to bind the FT promoter. It encodes an APETALA2-like protein. Misexpression of FIT in the phloem, the place where FT is naturally expressed, accelerates the floral transition. Moreover, I present evidence that FIT is expressed in vascular tissue upon UV-light induction. Finally, I show that UV-light is able to accelerate the floral transition. Two other AP2-like proteins delay the floral transition when expressed in the phloem and can also interact with the FT promoter. In a nutshell, this thesis presents the first insight how CO may regulate expression of the floral integrator FT and proposes evidence for a novel flowering time pathway involving stress-induced AP2-like transcription factors.


Lewis and Clark and the Indian Country broadens the scope of conventional study of the Lewis and Clark expedition to include Native American perspectives. Frederick E. Hoxie and Jay T. Nelson present the expedition\u2019s long-term impact on the \u201cIndian Country\u201d and its residents through compelling interviews conducted with Native Americans over the past two centuries, secondary literature, Lewis and Clark travel journals, and other primary sources from the Newberry Library\u2019s exhibit Lewis and Clark and the Indian Country. Rich stories of Native Americans, travelers, ranchers, Columbia River fur traders, teachers, and missionaries-often in conflict with each other--illustrate complex interactions between settlers and tribal people. Environmental protection issues and the preservation of Native language, education, and culture dominate late twentieth-century discussions, while early accounts document important Native American alliances with Lewis and Clark. In widening the reader\u2019s interpretive lens to include many perspectives, this collection reaches beyond individual achievement to appreciate America\u2019s plural past.


In this article the concept of the group matrix as a self-organizing process of intersubjective narrative themes that organize the experience of being together is developed, discussing how Foulkes dealt with the problem of the part and the whole, the individual and the group in three different ways without holding the paradox. It is argued that if we see the self-referential nature of the group matrix we are able to hold the paradox of it fortuning and being formed by itself at the same time; also that the notion of the group matrix as a group mind is a reification that sustains the Cartesian duality and unnecessarily mystifies the notion of matrix. When the matrix is thought of as a self- referential process that self-organizes to produce its own evolution in an emergent way we can dispense with notions of group minds and work with an experience-near concept.


A common approach to many combinatorial problems is to model them as 0/1 linear programs. This approach enables the use of standard linear program-based optimisation methodologies that are widely employed by the operation research community. While this methodology has worked well for many problems, it can become problematic in cases where the linear programs generated become excessively large. In such cases, linear models can lose their computational viability. In recent years, several articles have explored the computational attractiveness of non-linear alternatives to the standard linear models typically adopted to represent such problems. In many cases, comparative computational testing yields results favouring the non-linear models by a wide margin. In this article, we summarise some of these successes in an effort to encourage a broader view of model construction than the conventional wisdom, i.e. linear modelling, typically affords.


At his death in 1959, Felix Jacoby left to posterity a monumental work assembling the fragments of more than 870 Greek historians. Yet the sheer bulk of the material and the lack of transparency of the plan make the Fragmente der Griechischen Historiker difficult to use and it is often avoided by students. The three indexes now published are the first fruits of an indexation project which aims to facilitate access to the corpus of fragments and to improve its usefulness. Index no. 1 places all sources of fragments in a list alphabetized by author and work, index no. 2 follows the order of presentation found in Jacoby, while index no. 3 places the authors of fragments in alphabetical order and gives under each one an alphabetized list of authors who cite him. The practical advantages are clear. Index no. 1 allows the reader to find his way from a fragment he has come across in his reading to the entry in Jacoby: he can then situate it within the lost work and note Jacoby's comment on it. Index no. 3 offers a complete resolution of Jacoby's abbreviations, which are often obscure and sometimes inconsistent. It also returns to their right place the often overlooked fragmenta and testimonia given by Jacoby in the addenda. In general, the indexes make it a simple matter to ascertain which historians had read (or not read) the works, now lost, of their predecessors, thus throwing light on the contents of libraries as well as the transmission of historical texts and their lifespan. Die Fragmente der Griechischen Historiker is available in print, and now also online as part of the online reference work Jacoby Online. Please click here for more details.


Building on a previously presented framework for a single engine simulator (OptiSPICE) this paper will present models and techniques for modelling devices used in local area networks utilizing wavelength division multiplexing, single-mode fiber and integrated electronics. This paper will detail time-domain models of various elements that form optical links in such a system. Detailed models based on physical rate equations will be presented for laser sources and electro-optic modulators. A single mode fiber model based on the Non-linear Schrodinger Equation and which includes multiple channel effects will be presented. Finally, a model of an avalanche photo-diode using an electrical diode and a photo-current which is proportional to the optical intensity at the input will be described. The final section of the paper will present results from a multi-channel optical link. The initial part of each channel is comprised of a laser source and driver, an optical gain/attenuation element and an electro-optical modulator driven by a bit stream generator. An optical multiplexing element is then used to merge the optical channels and this is connected to a single-mode fiber. At the end of the fiber an optical splitter is used with optical filters to de-multiplex the optical signal and finally a avalanche photo-diode and amplifier is used to terminate each channel. These results demonstrate the successful simulation of multi-channel optical links using the presented optoelectronic simulation framework and models.


A b s t r a c t : We describe an ab initio server prototype for prediction of phosphorylation sites. A list of possible active sites for a given query protein is build using query protein sequence and the database of proteins annotated for a certain type of activation process by Swiss-Prot DB. All short segments of a query protein sequence centered around plausible active sites are compared with experimental profiles. Those profiles describe both sequence and structure preferences for each type of active site. Prediction of local conformation of a query protein chain around examined site is done with the specially prepared library of short local structural segments (LSSs). The short sequence fragments from a query protein are matched with segments in the library using profile with profi le alignment. Predicted local structure of a chain near active site qualitatively agrees with experimental data fetched from PDB database. We estimate in this paper the level of improvement over purely sequence based methods gained by incorporating predicted structural information into the local description of phosphorylation sites.


Size distribution measurements performed at five different stations have been investigated during a one-year period between 01 June 2000 and 31 May 2001 with focus on diurnal, seasonal and geographical differences of size distribution properties. The stations involved cover a large geographical area ranging from the Finnish Lapland (67 • N) down to southern Sweden (56 • N) in the order Värriö, Pallas, Hyytiälä, Aspvreten and Vavihill. The shape of the size distribution is typically bimodal during winter with a larger fraction of accumulation mode particles compared to the other seasons. Highest Aitken mode concentration is found during summer and spring during the year of study. The maximum of nucleation events occur during the spring months at all stations. Nucleation events occur during other months as well, although not as frequently. Large differences were found between different categories of stations. Northerly located stations such as Pallas and Värriö presented well-separated Aitken and accumulation modes, while the two modes often overlap significantly at the two southernmost stations Vavi-hill and Aspvreten. A method to cluster trajectories was used to analyse the impact of long-range transport on the observed aerosol properties. Clusters of trajectories arriving from the continent were clearly associated with size distributions shifted towards the accumulation mode. This feature was more pronounced the further south the station was located. Marine-or Arctic-type clusters were associated with large variability in the nuclei size ranges. A quasi-lagrangian approach was used to investigate transport related changes in the aerosol properties. Typically, an increase in especially Aitken mode concentrations was observed when advection from the north occurs, i.e. allowing more continental influence on the aerosol when comparing the different measurement sites. When trajectory clusters arrive to the stations from SW, a gradual decrease in number concentration is experienced in all modes as latitude of measurement site increases.


Evaluating a proposed farm best management practice: Nitrous oxide emissions, in-bed nitrate and carbon monitoring, and hydraulic retention times of denitrifying woodchip bioreactors in Monterey County, California by Christina M. David Master of Science in Coastal and Watershed Science and Policy California State University Monterey Bay, 2014 Because surface waters in agricultural regions along the Central Coast of California have relatively high nitrate concentrations, there is a lot of interest to evaluate and implement various practices to improve water quality. This study assessed hydraulic retention times (HRTs), nitrate and carbon concentration gradients, and atmospheric fluxes and dissolved concentrations of nitrous oxide in three denitrification woodchip bioreactors on Salinas Valley farms that treat nitrate at 30 mg/L NO3-N to 180 mg/L NO3-N from field runoff. To evaluate HRT, we used sodium bromide tracer tests on two of the bioreactors, DBR1 and DBR 3, the former which had double the volume and flow rate. The mean HRT for DBR 1 was 41 hours and for DBR 3 was 35 hours, both of which were longer than expected. However, several system design parameters made the woodchip bioreactors non-ideal for salt tracer testing, as suggested by tracer stratification observed particularly during the DBR 3 test. Because of the potential for spatial heterogeneity of carbon and nitrate within the bioreactor beds that could indicate differential nitrate removal efficiency, we analyzed water samples from DBR 2 at various depths and distances along the bioreactor. Dissolved organic carbon availability decreased by 0.9 mg/L with a 0.3-m increase in depth, while nitrate increased by 4.3 mg/L with the same depth increase, both of which indicate that a greater extent of denitrification may be occurring near the surface of the bioreactor; however, this may or may not indicate greater nitrate removal efficiency, since if a slower flow path existed near the surface then nitrate removal would be increased but volume of water treated would be decreased. The volumetric nitrate removal rate of 6.7 g NO3-N/m bioreactor volume/day achieved by DBR 1 was high compared to other woodchip bioreactor studies, but because tile drain nitrate concentrations were also high, the two bioreactors at the tile drain sites only removed an average 12% to 19% of the incoming nitrate. Finally, few studies have evaluated nitrous oxide production from wood chip bioreactors, particularly atmospheric fluxes. To address this weakness, we installed static chambers in two of the bioreactors to measure nitrous oxide flux, and also took water samples to measure dissolved nitrous oxide. The mean atmospheric flux for DBR 2 was 2,700±1,300 μg N2O-N/m/hour (mean±1 SD), while export of dissolved nitrous oxide was estimated as 424,000 μg N2O-N/hour and 200,000 μg N2O-N/hour for DBR 2 and DBR 3, respectively. These values were of similar magnitude to a New Zealand woodchip-andsawdust bed study, much higher than two other woodchip bioreactor studies, and an order of magnitude higher than typical emissions from treatment wetlands. Therefore, although woodchip bioreactors have some potential as a nitrate-removing best management practice for the Central Coast, more work needs to be done to optimize the nitrate removal and explore if it is possible to limit their production of nitrous oxide.


Research has generally shown the benefits of social support, such as the buffering effects on life stressors, yet there has been little empirical investigation of different types of support resources for transgender individuals. We examined family support, support from friends, and connectedness to a transgender community and how these forms of support come together to influence mental health and resilience. The sample included 695 transgender participants (mean age = 25.52 years, SD = 9.68, range = 16-73; 75.7% White) who completed an online survey. Greater than half of participants reported moderate to severe levels of anxious and depressive symptoms. Family social support had the strongest correlations with symptoms of anxiety and depression (r = -.31 and -.37, respectively, p < .01) and was the only form of support associated with resilience when controlling for other forms of support. Latent profile analyses revealed 4 groups based on levels of social support from family and friends and community connectedness. Notably, Class 1 (n = 323; 47.1%) had high levels of support from family and friends and high levels of community connectedness. This class had lower levels of depression and anxiety symptoms and higher levels of resilience compared to other classes (Class 2, n = 276, 40.3%, high friend/community, low family; Class 3, n = 47, 6.9%, low support; Class 4, n = 39, 5.7%, high family, low friend/community). This study highlights the importance of examining support from a more holistic approach and provides insight into unique associations between familial social support and resilience. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).


This study emphasizes the critical role of foreign language teaching in enhancing students' intercultural competence, as a means of expanding their future opportunities in an increasingly multicultural and diverse world. Foreign language classes may provide unique opportunities for delivering a plurilingual, multicultural setting utilizing the cultural elements in the course content and course materials as well as the personal experiences of the teacher in the classroom. To that end, more attention is needed to foreign language teacher preparation and training. As multiculturalism is a significant feature of European communities, this study sought to investigate and analyze the related policies, strategies and practices in Europe, since Paris declaration 2015, in order to determine actions have been taken to address those needs.  This qualitative study is based on document analysis of the European Educational Policy documents released mainly by the European Commission and the Council of Europe. The results of the analysis showed that foreign language education has presented along with intercultural education in the vast majority of European educational policies as a dominant component within the context of integration and promote social cohesion, as well as increase competitiveness and employability. The study has implied a number of implications highlighted some potential gaps that may be diminish the effectiveness of these policies, pushing towards more empirical research on the influence of EU policies on national level actions.
   Keywords: Foreign language Teaching, Intercultural competence, multilingual competence, plurilingual, multicultural setting, European documents, European Education Policy.


We develop and test a model of the global trade network. This model connects international comovements of quantities and asset prices to a simple measure of network closeness, constructed from observed trade weights. We report three findings: (1) Countries that are closer in the network tend to have more correlated consumption growth rates, more correlated stock returns, and more correlated exchange rate movements. (2) International comovements can be decomposed into a component driven by primitive productivity shocks and a component due to network transmissions. Asset price correlations tend to be explained by the network structure, while consumption correlations by the correlations of primitive shocks. (3) The trade network generates factor structures in equity returns and exchange rate movements. It helps to explain the existence of the dollar and the carry factors, and gives rise to regional factors. These findings offer a network-based account of the origins of factor structures in international economic quantities and asset prices.


Pulmonary disease, due to Mycobacteria other than tuberculosis, is mainly suspected in HIV + patients, or underlying other diseases. In our country, there is no updated information on the prevalence of this pulmonary disease, its treatment and evolution in immucocompetent patients. We present 10 cases of pulmonary disease due to Mycobacteria other than tuberculosis in non HIV patients: clinical-bacteriological diagnosis, treatment and evolution.


The variability of ultraviolet and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006 was examined in this study. The measurements from NILU-UV multichannel radiometers at 7 stations of the Greek UV Network were used, where the maximum eclipse percentage ranged from 73.1% to 94.8%. In addition, an extra instrument was established at a remote Greek island, Kastelorizo, which was within the Moon's umbral shadow. The reduction of irradiance at 305 and 312 nm relative to non-eclipse conditions at all sites was almost 1.5 times more than the corresponding decrease in the UVA and visible part of the spectrum and reached 98% for eclipse percentage equal to 94%. The availability of several instruments in close proximity to the path of the umbral shadow provided a challenging test for the models. The measured changes in UV and visible irradiance were compared with 1-D model calculations accounting for the limb darkening effect. The agreement between measurements and modeled values at all sites is within 3% for eclipse percentages of less than 30% and becomes worse as the eclipse progresses. The 1-D model reproduced the spectral effect of the eclipse in UVA and PAR wavelength regions within 3% for eclipse percentages up to 50%, but only the half of the observed change was captured as the eclipse progressed. At three sites, where the eclipse maximum was more than 94%, the measured irradiance at 305 nm for eclipse percentages of more than 85% decreased with slower rates than for longer wavelengths. As a result, the total ozone values, derived from the 305/320 nm ratios, apparently decreased significantly for high eclipse percentages. The effect is similar at all three sites, but the interpretation of this observation remains a challenge. Comparison results with 3-D model calculations shortly before, during and shortly after totality were performed for the first time and revealed an agreement with measurements within 20% in the UV-A region. However, the modeled estimates of irradiance at 312 nm are three times lower than measured values.


Batch experiments were conducted to determine whether sub-ppb concentrations of dissolved Cr(VI) could be achieved by redox-assisted coagulation with Fe(II). in this process Fe(II) acts as a reductant for Cr(VI) and, after its oxidation to Fe(Ill), as a coagulant. With an Fe(II) dose of 30 muM (1.7 mg/l as Fe), dissolved Cr(VI) concentrations in synthetic or natural Colorado River water (CRW) at pH 8.2 could be decreased from an initial value of 1 muM (52 mug/l) to 99% removal efficiency in contrast, removal of Cr(VI) by coagulation with Fe(Ill) was poor, even at higher Fe(Ill) doses (up to 100 muM). The efficiency of Cr(VI) removal by redox-assisted coagulation decreased at lower (but still above stoichiometric) Fe(II) doses due to the incomplete reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(II), which, under our experimental conditions, can be attributed to the competing reaction of Fe(II) with O-2 between PH 7 and 8.2 and to the slow kinetics of of Fe(II) with Cr(VI) between PH 6.5 and 7. Although Cr(VI) was less efficiently removed from natural or synthetic CRW than from the simple electrolyte solution, the desired level of removal could be achieved by increasing the Fe(II) dose.


The counting method is a recently developed treatment for trauma memories that appears to be efficient, well tolerated by clients, and relatively easy for therapists to master. Progressive counting (PC) represents a substantial modification of this method for enhanced treatment tolerance and efficiency. PC was done with an 11-year-old girl who experienced the death of a family member as well as repeated molestation by a babysitter, and with a 12-year-old girl who experienced two losses and a disabling injury. In each case, at follow-up (12 weeks for the first case, 4 weeks for the second), posttraumatic stress symptoms had moved from clinical to normal levels, presenting problems had substantially diminished, and almost no memory-related distress remained. PC is promising and warrants further study.


We investigated the utility of subfossil bat guano as a paleoenvironmental archive by comparing elemental ratios and δ13C, δ15N, and δD values of various simple extracts from bulk material. Solvent-extracted guano yielded consistent C:N and N:H ratios, and δ13C values of solvent-extracted guano exhibited strong covariation with δD values, as well as with the δ13C values of other simple extracts (bulk guano, bulk lipid). The results suggest that reliable records are easily recovered for δ13C, and also indicate that δ15N values may have utility as a paleoenvironmental archive. Despite coeval δ13C values of bulk guano and solvent-extracted guano, 14C ages of the different fractions did not always yield similar ages, indicating that future refinement of a suitable extraction protocol is required. Applying these protocols to an ancient bat guano deposit allowed us to infer that climate at the Grand Canyon during the late Pleistocene was more variable and generally cooler and wetter, relative to Holocene climate. We conclude that guano deposits are an underutilized, yet powerful continental paleoenvironmental archive of climate change for semi-arid and tropical regions.


Paul Brodwin, Everyday Ethics: Voices From the Front Line of Community Psychiatry. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2012. 248 pp.Brodwin's well-researched book is a must-read for anyone interested in the anthropology of psychiatry, social work, health care, or everyday moral decision-making. His aim is to show "what happens in the backstage of medical settings," which he does well (199). Brodwin's book embeds us in the social work teams of Eastside Services in a Midwestern city to reveal the extreme social conditions and ethical uncertainty in the lives of people with serious psychiatric disabilities and the people struggling to provide them with care.At Eastside, teams of low-paid, "bottom of the ladder" clinical social workers offered Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) model care to clients with serious psychiatric disabilities, such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depression. Many Eastside clients also seemed to struggle with addictions, which is true for about 50 percent of people diagnosed with serious mental illnesses in the public mental health system (Drake et al. 2006). ACT clients, according to Brodwin (and the original model developed in Wisconsin [Stein and Test 1980]) were often deemed to be in need of hands-on care in order to reduce rehospitalizations and enhance their participation in the community. At times, they were recipients of outpatient commitment orders, which are often considered to be a controversial imposition of the state on individual liberties.The ACT model of case management has been well-researched, and at least two good ethnographies of case management for people with serious psychiatric disabilities have been published, including Sue Estroff's (1981) classic, Making It Crazy: An Ethnography of Psychiatric Clients in an American Community, and Jerry Floersch's (2002) Meds, Money, and Manners. These books offer intimate perspectives on case management models from the perspectives of service users (Estroff) and from the perspective of front line staff (Floersch).Brodwin's book builds on the findings of these previous studies and makes an important contribution to the literature because he targets very important issues in care and caregiving, and relentlessly questions the ethical uncertainty of mental health care. He asks: how are decisions made about the care of people with serious psychiatric disabilities, why, by whom, and to what end?The book moves us toward understanding the complex answers to these questions. To help guide his understandings of clinical decisionmaking, Brodwin employs the term "everyday ethics," which he has borrowed from Donna Haraway (2013). He describes "everyday ethics" as a "species of situated knowledge" that is a partial perspective based on one's own way of organizing the world according to one's own local world-view (173). Interspersed in his ethical vignettes are informative discussions of the ways the mental health care system as-is emerged on a policy level, and the ethics of everyday decision-making that the mental health system forces care providers to manage.The work offers a very humanizing perspective of frontline community psychiatry care providers and their efforts to make incredibly important, challenging, and often demoralizing decisions for their clients with psychiatric disabilities. They do so with a very local perspective, Brodwin argues. Brodwin is most interested in moments of "rupture" when ethical comments do emerge unexpectedly and people take a moment to reflect upon the "social game" they are playing (202).It seems there are two kinds of frontline care providers playing the game in this book. The seemingly well-educated, all-powerful psychiatrist Dr. Young, who operates on his own set of biomedical logics that a person has a medical disease, needs treatment, and cannot be counted on to take care of themselves until they have proven themselves capable of doing so in a very specific, step-by-step way. …


Detailed IGCC coal power-plant thermo models, including different CO2 capture such as the chemical absorption MDEA and the hot potassium carbonate UNO Mk1, and the physical absorption Selexol are presented in this work. Based on these models, energy integrations are performed and IGCC efficiencies are compared for the cases with and without CO2 capture. For each CO2 capture system, different configurations are simulated in order to determine the best solutions in term of efficiency. The IGCC without capture yields an efficiency of 45.02%. The efficiency are closed for the IGCC with the MDEA and Selexol cases with 36.39% for the IGCC with MDEA capture and 36.42% for the IGCC with the Selexol capture system. The IGCC with the UNO process yields the highest efficiency with 37.33%. The UNO absorber can operate at higher temperature than the MDEA and Selexol cases. Therefore the water present in the syngas is not condensed before the absorber, thus the syngas mass-flow sending to the gas turbine is higher and the power produced in the gas turbine is, as well, higher. An overall Moo optimization is performed on the IGCC with the UNO CO2 capture system by varying different decision variables in the gasification, WGS, CO2 capture and gas turbine and cogeneration Rankine steam network units. The air pre-heat in the gas turbine has the most influence on the efficiency. By optimizing the different decision variables, an efficiency of 39.31% is yielded for the IGCC with the UNO CO2 capture for 90% of capture rate. In the prospect of resolving the best thermo-economic solution, an economic evaluation has to be performed in the future.


Phishing is the spoofing of Internet websites or emails aimed at tricking users into entering sensitive information, with such goals as financial or identity theft. The current study sought to determine whether age is associated with increased susceptibility to phishing and whether tests of executive functioning can predict phishing susceptibility. A total of 193 cognitively intact participants, 91 younger adults and 102 older adults, were primarily recruited through a Psychology department undergraduate subject pool and a gerontology research registry, respectively. The Executive Functions Module from the Neuropsychological Assessment Battery and the Iowa Gambling Task were the primary cognitive predictors of reported phishing suspiciousness. Other predictors included age group (older vs. younger), sex, education, race, ethnicity, prior knowledge of phishing, prior susceptibility to phishing, and whether or not browsing behaviors were reportedly different in the laboratory setting versus at home. A logistic regression, which accounted for a 22.7% reduction in error variance compared to the null model and predicted phishing suspiciousness with 73.1% (95% CI [66.0, 80.3]) accuracy, revealed three statistically significant predictors: the main effect of education (b = 0.58, SE = 0.27) and the interactions of age group with prior awareness of phishing (b = 2.31, SE = 1.12) and performance on the Neuropsychological Assessment Battery Mazes test (b = 0.16, SE = 0.07). Whether or not older adults reported being suspicious of the phishing attacks used in this study was partially explained by educational history and prior phishing knowledge. This suggests that simple educational interventions may be effective in reducing phishing vulnerability. Although one test of executive functioning was found useful for identifying those at risk of phishing susceptibility, four tests were not found to be useful; these results speak to the need for more ecologically valid tools in clinical neuropsychology.


The Patagonian otter (Lontra provocax) is an endangered species endemic to southern Chile and Argentina. Most of its distribution range has recently been occupied by the American mink (Neovison vison). As part of a long-term study on the impact of mink in Patagonia, we assessed five reversible anaesthetic combination protocols in different doses on wild L. provocax and N. vison, and described the occurrence of any adverse effects. We assessed 16 anaesthetic procedures with a combination of ketamine-medetomidine (KET-MED; 6.0±2.8-0.05±0.01 mg/kg IM, respectively) or ketamine-dexmedetomidine (KET-DEX; 4.1±0.9-0.02±0.004 mg/kg IM) in L. provocax and 23 anaesthetic procedures with KET-MED (13.3±4-0.1±0.04 mg/kg IM), KET-DEX (4.8±0.3-0.024±0.001 mg/kg IM) in a low dose of ketamine (LDK) or KET-DEX (10.2±0.9-0.025±0.002 mg/kg IM) in a high dose of ketamine (HDK) in N. vison. Reversal was accomplished using atipamezole at 5 times the dose of MED or 10 times the dose of DEX. All anaesthetic combinations produced complete immobilisation and rapid anaesthetic induction, except for two otters anaesthetised with KET-MED which exhibited a longer time to initial effect. Hypothermia was commonly observed at the end of the anaesthetic procedures. Due to the hypoxemia presented in four otters at the beginning of anaesthesia, it is recommended to use additional oxygen when possible.


The structure of human protein HSPC034 has been determined by both solution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and X‐ray crystallography. Refinement of the NMR structure ensemble, using a Rosetta protocol in the absence of NMR restraints, resulted in significant improvements not only in structure quality, but also in molecular replacement (MR) performance with the raw X‐ray diffraction data using MOLREP and Phaser. This method has recently been shown to be generally applicable with improved MR performance demonstrated for eight NMR structures refined using Rosetta (Qian et al., Nature 2007;450:259–264). Additionally, NMR structures of HSPC034 calculated by standard methods that include NMR restraints have improvements in the RMSD to the crystal structure and MR performance in the order DYANA, CYANA, XPLOR‐NIH, and CNS with explicit water refinement (CNSw). Further Rosetta refinement of the CNSw structures, perhaps due to more thorough conformational sampling and/or a superior force field, was capable of finding alternative low energy protein conformations that were equally consistent with the NMR data according to the Recall, Precision, and F‐measure (RPF) scores. On further examination, the additional MR‐performance shortfall for NMR refined structures as compared with the X‐ray structure were attributed, in part, to crystal‐packing effects, real structural differences, and inferior hydrogen bonding in the NMR structures. A good correlation between a decrease in the number of buried unsatisfied hydrogen‐bond donors and improved MR performance demonstrates the importance of hydrogen‐bond terms in the force field for improving NMR structures. The superior hydrogen‐bond network in Rosetta‐refined structures demonstrates that correct identification of hydrogen bonds should be a critical goal of NMR structure refinement. Inclusion of nonbivalent hydrogen bonds identified from Rosetta structures as additional restraints in the structure calculation results in NMR structures with improved MR performance. Proteins 2009. © 2008 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.


This report outlines the strategies for site selection adopted as part of a baseline environmental monitoring investigation in connection with shale-gas exploration and development in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire. The project forms an extension to an ongoing baseline investigation being carried out in the Fylde, Lancashire, and the current project incorporates an air-quality monitoring component that was not within the original remit of the Fylde study. The DECC-funded investigation is led by the British Geological Survey, and is being carried out as a collaboration with the Universities of Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool, Manchester and York (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, NCAS) and Public Health England (PHE). The project incorporates work packages in monitoring of water quality, air quality and greenhouse gases, soil gas, ground motion and seismicity, and air radon and is being carried out over the period September 2015 to March 2016.
Site selection is a critical consideration in setting up a monitoring programme as chosen sites need to be representative of conditions to be tested. While sites will necessarily be subject to practical constraints (land access agreements, existing infrastructure, geological conditions, cost implications etc), site selection has a large part to play in ensuring collection of quantifiable, unbiased data. This report sets out the rationale for site selection in each of the work packages and the steps taken to ensure defensible site-selection decisions and to minimise the impact of practical constraints.


The purpose of this study is to re-assess the system of military obligation in England at the earliest time sufficient documents survive to provide an in-depth explanation. It is both an examination of the twelfth-century feudal structure and lordship arrangements as described by these documents, and how they came to be in their twelfth-century forms. This is supplemented by a similar, but briefer, evaluation of the Regno of southern Italy and of the occasional relevant documents from Normandy. An examination of the place of military obligation in the kingdom of England covers three major areas: the assessment of this obligation, the cost of service both to the king and the individual knight, and how the men actually served. These three areas offer insight into how the Normans established the servicium debitum, how knights exempted themselves from their obligation or were compensated for extra service, and various aspects of what their service entailed, such as castle guard.
A study of the returns made by tenants-in-chief in 1166 suggests that these have been misinterpreted in the past; their inspiration lay in the desire of the barons to protect themselves from excessive royal demands, rather than in the crown's desire to update the servicium debitum. The survey conducted in the Regno earlier is unlikely to have served as a prototype for the 1166 inquiry; it was different in purpose and in form. Scutages are examined, to show the complex patterns of payment, and to suggest that under Henry II a significant number of tenants-in-chief performed their service, rather than commuted it. The Pipe Rolls are used to analyse military expenditure at a local level in two counties, Kent and Shropshire; in particular pay rates are reconstructed. A series of appendices provide details of this expenditure, along with evidence of scutages.


Regulation in the environmental context has, until recently, been guided by risk reduction - strategies that require risk-producers to prevent, limit, or clean up contaminants. However, it has increasingly come to rely on "risk avoidance" - strategies that call upon risk-bearers to alter their practices and ways of living so as to avoid exposure to contaminants left unabated. For example, women and children might be asked to eliminate fish from their diets to avoid the risks of methylmercury contamination; asthmatics might be advised to refrain from going outside on "ozone alert" days to avoid the risks of ground-level ozone pollution; and parents may be instructed to keep their children from making mud pies to avoid the risks of lead and other heavy metal contamination. However, there has not yet been a systematic effort to consider and justify a move to risk avoidance. This article undertakes this task, exploring the promise and perils of risk avoidance as a regulatory tool. Among other things, risk avoidance strategies promise cost savings and enhance autonomy. But risk avoidance is also perilous. Risk avoidance strategies are notoriously ineffective; they offer diminishing and, ultimately, finite options for managing environmental risks; they may introduce risks; and they are often unjust. In view of these and other arguments, the article concludes that, on balance, risk avoidance will be inappropriate in most instances. Finally, the article suggests that, in order to evaluate a move to risk avoidance, we need a mode of analysis that enables us to consider whether a risk - with its attendant means of avoidance - is morally, culturally, and socially acceptable.


Mathematical simulation models are commonly applied to analyze experimental or environmental data and eventually to acquire predictive capabilities. Typically these models depend on poorly defined, unmeasurable parameters that need to be given a value. Fitting a model to data, so-called inverse modelling, is often the sole way of finding reasonable values for these parameters. There are many challenges involved in inverse model applications, e.g., the existence of non-identifiable parameters, the estimation of parameter uncertainties and the quantification of the implications of these uncertainties on model predictions. The R package FME is a modeling package designed to confront a mathematical model with data. It includes algorithms for sensitivity and Monte Carlo analysis, parameter identifiability, model fitting and provides a Markov-chain based method to estimate parameter confidence intervals. Although its main focus is on mathematical systems that consist of differential equations, FME can deal with other types of models. In this paper, FME is applied to a model describing the dynamics of the HIV virus.