Appropriately defining and then efficiently calculating similarities from large data sets are often essential in data mining, both for building tractable representations and for gaining understanding of data and generating processes. Here we rely on the premise that given a set of objects and their correlations, each object is characterized by its context, i.e. its correlations to the other objects, and that the similarity between two objects therefore can be expressed in terms of the similarity between their respective contexts. Resting on this principle, we propose a data-driven and highly scalable approach for discovering similarities from large data sets by representing objects and their relations as a correlation graph that is transformed to a similarity graph. Together these graphs can express rich structural properties among objects. Specifically, we show that concepts -- representations of abstract ideas and notions -- are constituted by groups of similar objects that can be identified by clustering the objects in the similarity graph. These principles and methods are applicable in a wide range of domains, and will here be demonstrated for three distinct types of objects: codons, artists and words, where the numbers of objects and correlations range from small to very large.


Democracy is defined by two core tenets: voice and pluralism. Within these constraints, a wide variety of regime types can be designed. We show that the only new, untested form of democracy is when every citizen is governed by the political party of his/her choice. Multiple full-fledged governments would coexist in the same national territory at the same time, each one sovereign only over the people who chose to vote for it - hence the name: "Choice Democracy". Choice Democracy can be regarded as pure polyarchy, the broadest form of political competition, and a robust mechanism for disciplining government agencies. We argue that this system makes democracy more stable by reducing the risk of revolutionary and financial crises. We develop a theory for the optimal number of governments per countries, where the answer is determined by a trade-off between cooperation and competition. We also provide evidence indicating that Choice Democracy would be viable in the real world.


Organizational performance is considered, in last decades, to be not only the result of using the capabilities and resources of the organization, but also the result of "how things are done" in the organization towards the achievement of the objectives set. The most complex evaluation and performance improvement programs are giving due importance today to issues such as organizational culture and human behavior; skills for change, managerial skills and managerial competences models, or intangible assets such as knowledge management and organizational learning. The emergence of knowledge management, further developing the concept of intellectual capital from the 1990s, led to the creation of a knowledge society in the last three decades. Moreover, the corporate culture is perceived as a shift in thinking for employees and managers, and the managerial culture puts its full mark on it – through the role models offered by managers who continue to be the "hard core" of it. Putting into practice this approach, we will consider some aspects of how managerial skills and the managerial culture are shared and manifested today in the knowledge society.


This review is focused on the effects of obesity on function and expression of potassium (K) channels in the vasculature. Five families of K channels have been identified in the vascular wall, calcium-activated K (KCa) channels, inward-rectifier K (KIR) channels, ATP-sensitive K (KATP) channels, voltage-gated K (KV) channels and two-pore domain K (K2P) channels. In endothelial cells (EC) and vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMC) opening of K channels leads to hyperpolarisation followed by vasodilatation. In some vascular beds of animal models of obesity, vasodilatation mediated by KCa3.1 and KCa2.3 channels has been reported to remain unaltered or even increased, whereas vasodilatation involving KCa1.1 channel has consistently been reported to be impaired. Changes in expression and function of KIR and KATP channels have also been associated with impaired vasodilatation in animal models of obesity, and therefore activation of these channels may improve endothelial function and reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events. Expression of KV7.x channels is downregulated in small arteries from hypertensive animals and it would be interesting to assess whether these channels contribute to development of hypertension in obese patients. However, the role of KV7.x and K2P channels in regulation of blood pressure remains unexplored compared to other K channels. In conclusion, obesity and metabolic syndrome alter expression, function and sensitivity of vascular K channel subtypes causing smooth muscle dysfunction and probably endothelial dysfunction which makes these patients particularly prone to premature cardiovascular disease. Modulation of K channel activity by use of openers of e.g. KCa and KATP channels may also be attractive to counteract vascular dysfunction observed in obesity.


This study outlined the implementation and evaluation of one associative and two dissociative coping strategies on rowing ergometer performance. Participants were 9 novice varsity rowers who performed a 40-min ergometer workout in 10 separate experimental sessions. At each workout participants were requested to row as far as possible in 40 min. A multiple-baseline design was utilized, which after varying amounts of baseline permitted implementing an associative or dissociative strategy for each participant. These strategies included associative, dissociative-video, and dissociative-music. Results indicated that performance improved under all conditions for all participants but that the greatest gains were found in the associative condition.


Medium-term prospects for key agricultural markets in Lithuania are analysed under alternative policies. Policy alternatives show the impacts of EU accession and also the impacts of implementing AP reforms in 2007. The model is a partial equilibrium, multi-commodity model where commodity prices are linked to key prices in major EU markets. The accession analysis shows significant impacts on production, prices, and even on relative prices. It indicates impacts on production and trade patterns. The most realistic scenario (SAPS to 2006 and SFP from 2007 to 2010) generates a growth in product value more than 10 percent higher than the non-accession scenario. The largest increase is in the value of milk production. There also is a decline in crops share and increase in milk share of the total market revenue, while cattle and dairy together increase from about 35 percent of output value in 2002 to over 45 percent in 2010.


This document describes a mechanism to achieve device isolation
through the application of special Layer 2 forwarding constraints.
Such a mechanism allows end devices to share the same IP subnet while
being Layer 2 isolated, which in turn allows network designers to
employ larger subnets and so reduce the address management overhead.
Some of the numerous deployment scenarios of the aforementioned
mechanism (which range from data center designs to Ethernet-to-the-
home-basement networks) are mentioned in the following text to
exemplify the mechanism's possible usages; however, this document
is not intended to cover all such deployment scenarios nor delve into
their details. This document is not an Internet Standards Track
specification; it is published for informational purposes.


Libra is a two-level market which assigns fractional shares of time to the transmitting nodes in local
regions of a multi-hop network. In Libra, users are assigned budgets by management and users assign
funding to services within their budget limits. The purpose is to prioritize users and also optimize network
utilization by preventing source nodes from injecting too much traffic into the network and thereby causing
downstream packet loss. All transmitting nodes sell capacity in the region surrounding them, and buy
capacity from their neighbors in order to be able to transmit. Streams buy capacity from each of the nodes
on their paths, thus streams that cross the same region compete directly for the bandwidth in that region.
Prices are adjusted incrementally on both levels.


Research was largely consistent in predicting a negative relationship between family ownership and research and development (R&D) intensity until Chrisman and Patel, using a behavioral agency model (BAM), called this general assumption into question. They argued that publicly owned family firms typically invest less in R&D than nonfamily-owned firms. This behavior may however be reversed if economic performance levels are below family aspirations or if family long-term goals, such as pursuing strong transgenerational family control, are highly valued. While most researchers, like Chrisman and Patel, primarily focused on large listed firms, more research on the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity in privately held small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is required. This is because firm size can play an important role in understanding the innovation management behavior of firms. Building on the BAM perspective, in the present paper it is argued that Chrisman and Patel's results can be extended to the context of SMEs, albeit with one important specification: the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is likely to be contingent on the way the family has invested its wealth. Specifically, it is contended that in the context of SMEs, where goals are more fluid and mixed, when there is a high overlap between family wealth and firm equity (i.e., most of the family's wealth is invested in the firm) the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is negative because of the family owners' greater desire to protect their socioemotional wealth (SEW). However, if the overlap between the family's total wealth and single firm equity is low (i.e., firm equity is just a small part of the total family wealth), the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is positive as the low overlap between family wealth and firm equity reduces the family's loss aversion propensity. In such a situation, family ownership is likely to foster R&D intensity because of the long-term orientation of family owners that increases the family firm's propensity to bear the risk of investing in R&D activities. The hypothesis is tested and confirmed in a study of 240 small- and medium-sized firms based in Italy. The paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, adding to the literature on innovation management and R&D intensity, it increases the understanding of what drives or inhibits R&D investments in SMEs when a family is involved in the ownership of the firm. This is particularly important because research on innovation management, as well as research on R&D intensity in family firms, is primarily focused on large firms and much less on SMEs. Second, the study complements arguments from prior research on the correlates of R&D intensity in large listed firms, showing that the BAM and SEW perspective offer a theoretical framework that is also able to illustrate the complex nature of innovation management in the context of SMEs. Third, the study contributes to research on the effects of family ownership on the general functioning of a firm. In particular, it provides new insights into how family ownership may affect R&D intensity.


This study was carried out because of concern about the hydrogen sulphide (H2S) concentration level in one of the oil fields and its impact on the operation and maintenance teams at the sites. The H2S level rose with the level varying across different wells but the HSE impact was not known. The objective of the study was to determine H2S risk classifications for the off-plot and on-plot facilities based on the design for sour service specification and on physical effects modelling. UniSIM Design R390 software was used to provide process modelling under the operating conditions and it was also deployed in the study to find out: Fluid compositions for different water cut and H2S concentrations, the mass flow rate for the multi-phase streams and gas streams (kg/h). The Shell FRED 6.0 model was used to find out the flow rate of the flashed flow in Kg/s. The fraction of the dispersed gas was calculated by dividing the two values of mass flow rate of the multiphase and flashed gas. The flow rate of flashed gas was calculated by multiplying the fraction of the flashed gas by the mass flow rate of the multiphase. Having the composition of the flashed gas from UniSIM model and the calculated flow rate, Shell FRED was used to calculate the H2S dispersion contour. The outcome of the study was a simple monograph to be used by the operation and maintenance team at the site to classify the off-plot facilities. The on-plot facilities were colour coded to determine the H2S risk in the plant. The classifications determined the minimum requirements for personal protection.


Nietzsche is ultimately placed by Heidegger within the metaphysical tradition—as the consummation and finale which facilitates Heidegger's movement henceforth. Nietzsche's position is crucial, Heidegger says, for without it his own questioning of Being itself could never have begun. I consider both Heidegger's naming of Nietzsche as an inauthentic nihilist and his placement of Nietzsche within the realm of metaphysics—moves Nietzsche himself would fervently and adamantly oppose. I look briefly at Heidegger's early claims about nihilism and authenticity, and appraise where, how, and to what end Nietzsche is located in the midst of these schemes. I conclude that, given Heidegger's use of Nietzsche, his early account of authenticity neither adequately accounts for nor gives sufficient credit to one's socio-historical context. I will suggest that holding Heidegger's views accountable to a more social view of autonomy would strengthen authenticity and clarify its importance.


Environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts are key influences on ecological processes and associated ecosystem services. Effective management of Tonga's marine ecosystems therefore depends on accurate and up-to-date knowledge of environmental and anthropogenic variables. Although many types of environmental and anthropogenic data are now available in global layers, they are often inaccessible to end users, particularly in developing countries with limited accessibility and analytical training. Furthermore, the resolution of many global layers might not be sufficient to make informed local decisions. Although the near-shore marine ecosystem of Tonga is extensive, the resources available for its management are limited, and little is known about its current ecological state. Here we provide a marine socio-environmental dataset covering Tonga's near-shore marine ecosystem as compiled from various global layers, remote sensing projects, local ministries, and the 2016 national census. The dataset consists of 11 environmental and 6 anthropogenic variables summarised in ecologically relevant ways, spatially overlaid across the near-shore marine ecosystem of Tonga. The environmental variables selected include bathymetry, coral reef density, distance from deep water, distance from land, distance from major terrestrial inputs, habitat, land area, net primary productivity, salinity, sea surface temperature and wave energy. The anthropogenic variables selected include fishing pressure, management status, distance to fish markets, distance from villages, population pressure and a socioeconomic development index based on population density, growth, mean age, mean education level and unemployment. We hope this extensive and accessible dataset will be a useful tool for future assessment and management of marine ecosystems in Tonga.


It is shown that microfabricated polydimethylsiloxane membrane valve structures can be configured to function as transistors in pneumatic digital logic circuits. Using the analogy with metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor circuits, networks of pneumatically actuated microvalves are designed to produce pneumatic digital logic gates (AND, OR, NOT, NAND, and XOR). These logic gates are combined to form 4- and 8-bit ripple-carry adders as a demonstration of their universal pneumatic computing capabilities. Signal propagation through these pneumatic circuits is characterized, and an amplifier circuit is demonstrated for improved signal transduction. Propagation of pneumatic carry information through the 8-bit adder is complete within 1.1 s, demonstrating the feasibility of integrated temporal control of pneumatic actuation systems. Integrated pneumatic logical systems reduce the number of off-chip controllers required for lab-on-a-chip and microelectromechanical system devices, allowing greater complexity and portability. This technology also enables the development of digital pneumatic computing and logic systems that are immune to electromagnetic interference.


A relationship between people's mobility and their social networks is presented based on an analysis of calling and mobility traces for one year of anonymized call detail records of over one million mobile phone users in Portugal. We find that about 80% of places visited are within just 20km of their nearest (geographical) social ties' locations. This figure rises to 90% at a 'geo-social radius' of 45km. In terms of their travel scope, people are geographically closer to their weak ties than strong ties. Specifically, they are 15% more likely to be at some distance away from their weak ties than strong ties. The likelihood of being at some distance from social ties increases with the population density, and the rates of increase are higher for shorter geo-social radii. In addition, we find that area population density is indicative of geo-social radius where denser areas imply shorter radii. For example, in urban areas such as Lisbon and Porto, the geo-social radius is approximately 7km and this increases to approximately 15km for less densely populated areas such as Parades and Santa Maria da Feira.


Abstract Australia is currently witnessing a melding of its various education sectors and a gradual erosion of distinctions between school, vocational education and higher education. Such developments are leading toward a 'seamless web' of post-compulsory education, a goal strongly articulated by governments, bureaucrats, business and educators in recent years. University Developed Board Endorsed Courses (UDBECs), which are developed by universities and undertaken by Higher School Certificate (HSC) students as part of their final year of study, are one such initiative. This paper discusses the role and function of UDBECs in the learning patterns and career decisions of final year high school students. A case study of one such course, Springboard into Teaching, is used to highlight the strengths and challenges of such initiatives. The evaluation of this particular UDBEC emphasises the benefits of partnerships between schools and universities, but highlights the need for further monitoring of the effects and longer-term outcomes of such initiatives.


This paper is aimed at improving the solution efficiency of MINLP problems in which the bottleneck lies in the combinatorial search for the 0-1 variables. An LP/NLP based Branch and Bound algorithm is proposed in which the explicit solution of an MILP master problem is avoided at each major iteration. Instead, the master problem is defined dynamically during the tree search to reduce the number of nodes that need to be examined. A branch and bound search is conducted to predict lower bounds by solving LP subproblems until feasible integer solutions are found. At these nodes nonlinear programming subproblems are solved providing upper bounds and new linear approximations which are used to tighten the linear representation of the open nodes in the search tree. To reduce the size of the LP subproblems, new types of linear approximations are proposed which exploit linear substructures in the MINLP problem. The extension to nonconvex problems is also discussed. Numerical results on several test problems are reported which show that the expense of solving the MILP master problem in the outer-approximation algorithm can be greatly reduced. Typically fewer than 50% of the total number of nodes need to be enumerated, while in most cases the number of NLP subproblems to be solved remains the same.


Diagrams are increasingly used in many design methods, and are being taught in a
variety of contexts in higher education such as database conceptual design or
software design in computer science. They are an important part of many
assessments. Currently computer aided assessments are widely used for multiple
choice questions. They lack the ability to assess a student's knowledge in a more
comprehensive way, which is required for diagram-type student work. The aim of
this research is to develop a semi-automatic assessment framework, which enables
the use of computer to support the assessment process of diagrammatic solutions,
with the focus of ensuring the consistency of grades and feedback on solutions. A
novel trace model, that captures design traces of student solutions, was developed as
a part of the framework and was used to provide the matching criteria for grouping
the solutions. A new marking style, partial marking, was developed to mark these
solution groups manually. The Case-Based Reasoning method is utilised in the
framework to mark some of the groups automatically. A guideline for scenario
writing was proposed to increase the efficiency of automatic marking. A prototype
diagram editor, a marking tool and scenario writing environment were implemented
for the proposed framework in order to demonstrate proof of concept. The results of
experiments show that the framework is feasible to use in the formative assessment
and it provides consistent marking and personalised feedback to the students. The
framework also has the potential to significantly reduce the time and effort required
by the examiner to mark student diagrams. Although the constructed framework
was specifically used for the assessment of database diagrams, the framework is
generic enough to be used for other types of graph-based diagram.


The present paper delivers a robust and systematic literature review (SLR) on supply chain risk management (SCRM) with the purpose to a) review and analyse the literature concerning definitions and research methodologies applied, to b) develop a classificatory framework which clusters existing enablers on SCRM, and to c) examine the linkage between SCRM and performance. The findings reveal that not only is SCRM loosely defined, but that there are various fragmented supply chain risks enablers and that there is a strong need for a clear terminology for its building enablers. In addition to that, the review points to a lack of empirical confirmation concerning the connection between SCRM and performance. This paper contributes an overview of 80 peer-reviewed journal articles on SCRM from 2000 to the beginning of 2015. We offer an overarching definition of SCRM, synthesise and assemble the numerous enablers into preventive and responsive strategies by means of a conceptual framework. Moreover, indicating the social network theory (SNT) as a potential theoretical foundation for SCRM, we further contribute to the supply chain management (SCM) literature by providing propositions that guide future research.


Results from a regional model of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data are analyzed to understand recent climate variability in the region. The primary simulation uses daily-averaged 1979 atmospheric fields repeated for 20 years and then continues with interannual forcing derived from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts for 1979-98. An eastward shift in the ice-ocean circulation, fresh-water distribution and Atlantic Water extent has been determined by comparing conditions between the early 1980s and 1990s. A new trend is modeled in the late 1990s, and has a tendency to return the large-scale sea-ice and upper ocean conditions to their state in the early 1980s. Both the sea-ice and the upper ocean circulation as well as fresh-water export from the Russian shelves and Atlantic Water recirculation within the Eurasian Basin indicate that the Arctic climate is undergoing another shift. This suggests an oscillatory behavior of the Arctic Ocean system. Interannual atmospheric variability appears to be the main and sufficient driver of simulated changes. The ice cover acts as an effective dynamic medium for vorticity transfer from the atmosphere into the ocean.


This study was conducted at the existing plantation of Jatropha curcas within the campus of Visayas State University, Baybay, Leyte from April 2006 to June 2006 with the following objectives: 1) to study the floral morphology and flowering behavior of J. curcas; 2) to determine the time and duration of flower opening, anther dehiscence, and stigmatic receptivity of J. curcas; and 3) to test for pollen viability. Male and female flowers of J. curcas were borne on the same plant with an average numbers per inflorescence of 55.03 and 1.926, respectively. Male flowers were more numerous than the females without definite relationship on number per inflorescence. It took an average of 9.56 days for all florets to full bloom. Anther dehiscence was observed to start at the time of opening of male flowers at around 0500 to 0600 hours and remained so for 24 to 72 hours. Stigmatic receptivity started about 12 hours after full bloom and lasted for about 24 hours. Based on observations, opening of floret buds, anther dehiscence, and stigmatic receptivity were all greatly influenced by the environment. Early sunrise, longer sunshine duration, and less amount of rainfall enhanced flowering of J. curcas. Pollen viability was relatively high, ranging from 88.12% to 98.55%.


Abstract In the UK, national and local governments are struggling to cope with the economic crisis which ensued in 2008. The effects of that crisis are still being felt in the United Kingdom, with significant reductions in public sector expenditure leading to budget cuts in the criminal justice system and public services more generally. In June 2013, the UK Chancellor projected further expenditure cuts from 2015 onward. Justice reinvestment (JR) has been proposed by UK policy makers and campaign groups as one way of responding to these economic problems. Proponents argue that, at a modest level, it has the potential to deliver efficiency gains in how the criminal justice system is operated. On a more ambitious scale, JR may fundamentally transform the way in which criminal justice services are delivered. Drawing on evidence from JR experiments in the United Kingdom—including Payment by Results (PbR) pilots in England and Wales—this paper examines the nature and extent to which models of JR can be implemented in an "age of austerity" against the backdrop of the wider application of PbR commissioning for criminal justice and related services.


The importance of organizations for understanding differences in the working conditions and health of employees is often emphasized but rarely explored empirically. The general aim of this thesis is to describe organizational characteristics of workplaces, and to assess their impact on the psychosocial working conditions and health of employees. In modern working life, it is assumed that employees' working conditions and health are affected by a general transformation of workplaces from bureaucracy to post-bureaucracy. The organizational data used are based on structured interviews with managers at workplaces in different types of operations in mid-Sweden, whereas the individual data consist of a questionnaire to all employees working in the participating workplaces, resulting in a dataset of 90 workplaces and 4306 individuals. Descriptive analysis was carried out for comparison of organizational characteristics in different types of operations, while multilevel analysis was applied to investigate the magnitude of the organizational impact on psychosocial working conditions, and to analyze associations between organizational characteristics, psychosocial working conditions and health. The results showed that the workplaces were mainly displayed by a combination of bureaucratic and post-bureaucratic characteristics, and these were unequally distributed between types of operations. A systematic variation in the psychosocial working conditions and health of employees was found between workplaces, and the variation in psychosocial working conditions was attributed to several organizational levels. The variation between workplaces was explained by both organizational characteristics of the workplaces and individual characteristics of the employees. Formalization, centralization, job enrichment, individual responsibility, soft control systems, and performance control were associated with psychosocial working conditions when controlled for occupational class, gender and age of employees, and a high degree of customer adaptation was associated with increased sickness absence of employees. It is concluded that bureaucracy and post-bureaucracy should not be regarded as dichotomies. Organizational characteristics of workplaces have an impact on the psychosocial working conditions and health of employees beyond occupational class. This has implications for both the theory and the practice of occupational health research.


Poverty is multifaceted and can be manifested in hunger, unemployment, exploitatio n and lack of access to clean water, sanitation, health-care and education. Poverty is not confined to any one racial group in South Africa, but it is concentrated amongst Blacks, particularly Africans. There is a need to monitor poverty and the poverty alleviation programmes (PAPs) that are in place, to see that the needs of the poor are addressed with the urgency the situation demands and to take corrective actions where mistakes have previously occurred. Some of the policies of the past, such as segregation and discrimination, left a legacy of poverty and inequality. Up to the early 1990s the apartheid system of the government had PAPs that were biased towards provid ing health, education and housing services to the White minority to the detriment of the Black majority of the South African population. The post-apartheid government's agenda is to address poverty and redress inequality amongst all societies. Through its poverty policy framework, the Reconstruction and Development Programme and its macro-economic prescriptions of Growth, Employment and Redistribution policy, the government has implemented new PAPs and extended some of the past programmes to address poverty. It is essential to evaluate these existing and past PAPs to see if they are reducing the poverty gap. This paper would review past PAPs and how effective they were in alleviating poverty and compare this to existing and even the proposed programmes to see if they are reducing poverty. In doing so, the paper will be highlighting the successes and failures of these programmes with a view of coming up with recommendations on how to effectively implement such programmes in future and to avoid repeating the mistakes that occurred previously.


The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the capacity of schizotypy and alexithymia traits, in combination with affectivity to predict facial emotion recognition capability in a sample of nonclinical adults. Consecutive healthy participants (N= 98) were investigated using the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20 (TAS-20), the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences-Reduced Version (O-LIFE-R), and the Positive and NA Schedule (PANAS). A set of validated photographs (static images) and virtual faces (dynamic images) for presenting the basic emotions was used to assess emotion recognition. Pearson correlations were applied to investigate the relationship between the study variables; the amount of variance in emotion recognition capability predicted by OLIFE-R, TAS-20 and PANAS was calculated by using the linear regression model. Results showed that alexithymia was strongly associated with schizotypy and NA; furthermore, alexithymia and NA made a significant contribution to the prediction of emotion recognition capability. The predictive model was fitted for two types of presentations (photographs and virtual reality). The inclusion of virtual faces emerges as a response to the need to consider computer characters as new assessment and treatment material for research and therapy in psychology


This paper investigates the possible social responses to changes in the strength of the southwest monsoon in northeastern Thailand during the currency of the Angkor civilisation. These assessments are based on hydrogen and carbon isotope records of leaf waxes (δDwax and δ13Cwax) from a 2000-year-long wetland sequence of Pa Kho in northeastern Thailand, a region that formed the northern boundary of the Angkor Kingdom. Our data indicate anthropogenic flooding of the Pa Kho wetland through the control of water through dam construction from c. AD 1300 in response to the fluctuating strength of monsoon rains. δDwax, a proxy for regional hydroclimate variability, corroborates pre-existing evidence that increased summer monsoon rains, which supported the expansion of the agrarian economy, aided the rise of the Angkorian Empire whereas extreme drought contributed to its demise. Interestingly, our δDwax record shows already a gradual decreasing monsoon intensity from c. AD 1000 onwards, although Angkor's prosperity reached its peak at c. AD 1200. We suggest that the complex hydrological system established under royal patronage at Angkor provided a resilient buffer against short-term monsoon fluctuations. The long-term decline in monsoon rains over a ~300-year period, combined with ongoing urbanisation, may have stretched the hydrological systems to their limit. We suggest that this was a major factor that contributed to the demise of Angkor in the mid-15th century.


The traditional view of cancer asserts that a malignant tumour is composed of a population of cells, all of which share the ability to divide without limit. Within the last decade, however, this notion has lost ground to the emerging cancer stem cell hypothesis, which counters that only a (typically small) sub-population of so-called 'cancer stem cells' has the capacity to proliferate indefinitely, and hence to drive and maintain tumour growth. Cancer stem cells have been putatively identified in leukemias and, more recently, in a variety of solid tumours including those of the breast and brain. The cancer stem cell hypothesis helps to explain certain clinicallyobserved phenomena, including the apparent inability of conventional anti-cancer therapies to eradicate the disease despite (transient) reduction of overall tumour bulk – presumably these treatments fail to kill the underlying cancer stem cells. Herein, we develop stochastic and deterministic temporal models of tumour growth based on the cancer stem cell hypothesis, and apply these models to discussions of the treatment of glioblastoma multiforme, a common type of brain cancer believed to be maintained by cancer stem cells, and to the phenomenon of the epithelialmesenchymal transition, a process thought to be important in generating cancer cells capable of metastasis.


System resilience is the ability for complex, dynamic-adaptive socio-technical systems to absorb and rebound from trauma or stress, and to avoid "jousting with dragons" where results are uncertain and often fatal. In a safety context, the term "dragons" originates from Professor David Woods at Ohio State University and the relatively new field of Resilience Engineering. Dragons are an illustration for the consequence of "surprise" as depicted in ancient seafarer maps that filled the seas beyond the known boundaries of the ancient world with fire-breathing dragons, and certain death. In a modern day sense, dragons represent the unintended, and often unforeseen and unpredictable, consequences of crossing operational boundaries that are difficult to identify precisely, are often influenced by various actors, and are continually changing. In particular, due to the complex, dynamic-adaptive behaviour of systems, classic statistical metrics used in current Safety Management Systems (SMS) no longer allow us to predict the next undesired event. We need to change our focus and find new ways of capturing the faint signals of impending failure. This will require structural, psychological and social changes in the way SMSs work. In this paper, the issues of understanding and managing complex, dynamic-adaptive systems through the quality of resilience, and how to avoid "jousting with dragons" in the transport sector using a Resilience Engineering lens are addressed.


Age determination and annual growth analyses of two M. margaritifera shells from river Haukaselva, Norway, was carried on thin transversal sections prepared using the method developed at the Swedish Museum of Natural History in Stockholm, Sweden. In one of the shells (the oldest) elemental distribution was analysed using ICP-MS. The growth analyses showed that mussel B is younger and had higher growth rate than mussel A indicating that the two locations where the shells were found had different growth conditions. As such, the annual growth pattern of the two shells had a poor match but in both shells the growth was found decreasing after 2008, which indicated that some environmental factors had caused distress in both locations in the last living years.Variations in annual growth showed lower growth in the periods 1961-1978 (except 1967) and 1996-2013. In the same periods of time an increased amount of Fe, Mn, P, Ba and Sr was measured in the shell, while the levels of Cu, Co and Pb were lower. This together with the absence of heavy metals (such as Al, As, Cd and Cr) in the shell indicated that the freshwater pearl mussels in Haukaselva are not affected by the pH condition of the water, but highly affected by low O levels possibly due to eutrophication.


Some missions require efficient device to minimize the risk of personnel aviator. Unmanned aerial Vehicle (UAV) have sufficient ability to be effective in overcoming these difficulties with the less risks and costs. Many of uses UAV for various civilian and military activities such as border surveillance mission, as well as aerial photography necessitating the ability of UAV to fly independently with high stability. Reliable performance of the UAV is determined by the controller will control the UAV with high accuracy and ease of control. Autopilot system requires a controller with the ability to manage payload sensors and process it to be passed as output to the servo aileron, rudder and elevators plane. Usage of AVR-XMEGA microcontroller is a good choice in its use as the main control device or Onboard Data Handling (OBDH). Autopilot system created has two modes, namely a manual mode that uses a PWM input from the RC receiver to directly forward to the servo and auto mode using IMU sensor readings and process PID to maintain a stable position of the aircraft. The results of the second test mode to test tick interval from input to output generates the data input and output processes occur at the same tick that the system is running in real time. Keywords : UAV, unmanned system, autopilot , AVR-XMega, OBDH


This paper sets out to study pragmatic strategies of diagnostic news delivery in Nigerian hospitals, an area that has received extremely little attention in the linguistic literature. It ultimately aims to see how these strategies are similar to or are different from those used in Western hospitals, especially as studied by Maynard (1991a, 1991b, 1991c, 1992, 2003, 2004). The hospitals sampled were stratified into teaching, state-government owned and private hospitals, and a random selection of five hospitals from each group was made. Data were collected through tape recordings, and personal observation of hospital interactions. The analysis of data was based on insights from Levinson's (1979) notion of activity type and Maynard's (1991a, 1991b, 1991c, 1992, 2003, 2004) devices of diagnostic news delivery. The findings reveal that three strategies are used to declare diagnostic news. Two of these are the main strategies identified by Maynard, namely asserting the condition and citing the evidence, but the third, mitigating the blunt news through veils and hedges, is largely peculiar to Nigerian hospitals. The paper concludes that a study of pragmatic strategies of diagnostic news delivery contributes to a better understanding of hospital interactions, and provides insights into doctors' verbal outputs in diagnostic meetings.


Tunnel transport processes are considered in a square lattice of metallic nanogranules embedded into insulating host to model tunnel conduction in real metal/insulator granular layers. Based on a simple model with three possible charging states (+/- or 0) of a granule and three kinetic processes (creation or recombination of a +/- pair, and charge transfer) between neighbor granules, the mean-field kinetic theory is developed. It describes the interplay between charging energy and temperature and between the applied electric field and the Coulomb fields by the noncompensated charge density. The resulting charge and current distributions are found to essentially differ in the free area (FA), between the metallic contacts, or in the contact areas (CA) beneath those contacts. Thus, the steady-state dc transport is compatible only with zero charge density and ohmic resistivity in FA, but charge accumulation and nonohmic behavior are necessary for conduction over CA. The approximate analytic solutions are obtained for characteristic regimes (low or high charge density) of such conduction. The comparison is done with the measurement data on tunnel transport in related experimental systems.


Science is first and foremost an intellectual activity, an activity of thought. Therefore, how do we, as information scientists, respond intellectually to what is happening in the world of information and knowledge development, given the context of new sociocultural and knowledge landscapes? Information Science as an Interscience poses many challenges both to information science, philosophy and to information practice, and only when information science is understood as an interscience that operates in a multifaceted way, will it be able to comply with these challenges. In the fulfilment of this task it needs to be accompanied by a philosophical approach that will take it beyond the merely critical and linear approach to scientific work. For this reason a critical philosophical approach is proposed that will be characterised by multiple styles of thinking and organised by a compositional inspiration. This initiative is carried by the conviction that information science will hereby be enabled to make contributions to significant knowledge inventions that may bring about a better world. Chapters focus on the rethinking of human thinking, our unique ability that enables us to cope with the world in which we live, in terms of the unique science with which we are involved. Subsequent chapters explore different approaches to the establishment of a new scientific spirit, the demands these developments pose for human thinking, for questions of method and the implications for information science regarding its proposed functioning as a nomad science in the context of information practice and information work. Final chapters highlight the proposed responsibility of focusing on information and inventiveness and new styles of information and knowledge work. * focuses on rethinking information science to achieve a constructive scientific approach * provides an alternative methodological approach in the study of information science * shows how a change in scientific approach will have vast implications for the understanding and dissemination of knowledge* presents the implications of a new approach for knowledge workers, and the dynamics of their work* explores the future of thinking about science, knowledge and its nature and the ethical implications


We study the emergence of collective dynamics in the integrable
 Hamiltonian system of two finite ensembles of coupled harmonic
 oscillators. After identification of a collective degree of freedom,
 the Hamiltonian is mapped onto a model of Caldeira-Leggett type,
 where the collective coordinate is coupled to an internal bath of
 phonons. In contrast to the usual Caldeira-Leggett model, the bath in
 the present case is part of the system. We derive an equation of
 motion for the collective coordinate which takes the form of a
 damped harmonic oscillator. We show that the distribution of quantum
 transition strengths induced by the collective mode is
 determined by its classical dynamics. This allows us to derive the spreading for the collective coordinate from first principles.

After that we study the interplay between collective and incoherent
 single--particle motion in a model of two chains of particles whose
 interaction comprises a non--integrable part. In the perturbative
 regime, but for a general form of the interaction, we calculate the Fourier transform of the time correlation for the collective
 coordinate. We obtain the remarkable result that it always has a
 unique semi-classical interpretation. We show this by a proper
 renormalization procedure which also allows us to map the non-integrable system to the integrable model of
 Caldeira--Leggett--type considered previously in which the bath is part of the
 system.


A novel solution-processable small molecule, namely, benzo[1,2-b:4,5-b]bis(4,4'-dihexyl-4H-silolo[3,2-b]thiophene-2,2'-diyl)bis(6-fluoro-4-(5'-hexyl-[2,2'-bithiophene]-5-yl)benzo[c][1,2,5]thiadiazole (p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2), was designed and synthesized by utilizing the silaindacenodithiophene (SIDT) framework as the central D(2) donor unit within the D(1)AD(2)AD(1) chromophore configuration. Relative to the widely studied 7,7'-[4,4-bis(2-ethylhexyl)-4H-silolo[3,2-b:4,5-b']dithiophene-2,6-diyl]bis[6-fluoro-4-(5'-hexyl-[2,2'-bithiophene]-5-yl)benzo[c][1,2,5]thiadiazole] (p-DTS(FBTTh2)2), which contains the stronger donor fragment dithienosilole (DTS) as D(2), one finds that p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2 exhibits a wider band gap and can be used to fabricate bulk heterojunction solar cells with higher open circuit voltage (0.91 V). Most remarkably, thin films comprising p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2 can achieve exceptional levels of self-organization directly via solution deposition. For example, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy analysis shows that p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2 spin-cast from chlorobenzene organizes into crystalline domains with lattice planes that extend over length scales on the order of hundreds of nanometers. Such features suggest liquid crystalline properties during the evolution of the film. Moreover, grazing incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering analysis shows a strong tendency for the molecules to exist with a strong "face-on" orientation relative to the substrate plane. Similar structural features, albeit of more restricted dimensions, can be observed within p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2:PC71BM bulk heterojunction thin films when the films are processed with 0.4% diiodooctane (DIO) solvent additive. DIO use also increases the solar cell power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) from 1.7% to 6.4%. Of significance from a practical device fabrication perspective is that, for p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2:PC71BM blends, there is a wide range of compositions (from 20:80 to 70:30 p-SIDT(FBTTh2)2:PC71BM) that provide good photovoltaic response, i.e., PCE = 4-6%, indicating a robust tendency to form the necessary continuous phases for charge carrier collection. Light intensity photocurrent measurements, charge selective diode fabrication, and internal quantum efficiency determinations were carried out to obtain insight into the mechanism of device operation. Inclusion of DIO in the casting solution results in films that exhibit much lower photocurrent dependence on voltage and a concomitant increase in fill factor. At the optimum blend ratio, devices show high charge carrier mobilities, while mismatched hole and electron mobilities in blends with high or low donor content result in reduced fill factors and device performance.


We present the first report of a mass stranding of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Mexican waters. This species is a temporal inhabitant of the region. On 31 July 2000, eight killer whales stranded alive at the southern tip of Isla San Jose in Bahia de La Paz (24o 54' N, 110o 35' W). All the individuals died despite the attempts performed by local fishermen to return them to sea. The group consisted of an undetermined number of females, immature males, and two calves. Skin and blubber samples were collected, as well as a skull on 2 August from a 4.6-m immature male. A second skull was collected on 19 August, which belonged to an individual of undetermined sex that measured 5 m in length. The teeth from both individuals were completely worn down. A couple of months later, two other skulls were collected. Individual strandings of killer whales are rare, and six records have been documented in the Mexican Pacific and Gulf of California. This report represents the first mass stranding of killer whales in Mexico. Since 1972, more than 160 killer whale sightings have been collected in the Gulf of California, with more than 90 photo-identified killer whales; nevertheless, no matches with the stranded individuals were found. There are few cases of killer whales found stranded live, probably as a result of whales chasing or following prey, or as a result of an outgoing tide. Causes of this stranding remain unknown.


Dominant tourist satisfaction measures, typically tied to service quality, have recently received
much criticism by senior tourism academics (Ryan, 1995; Kozak, 2001; Pearce, 2005). These
prominent tourism scholars commonly refer to very similar problems of these measures: the
unnecessary and inappropriate focus on expectations as a major influence on tourist satisfaction;
the inability of service quality scales to adequately measure gaps between service expectations
and performance; the lack of attention to immediate conscious satisfaction; the inability of the
approaches to shed light on travel meaning; and the inability to explain the emotional dimension of
tourist satisfaction.
The purpose here is to present a fresh tourist satisfaction approach which does not have these
problems. Instead of service quality, this fresh approach views satisfaction in terms of happiness
and quality of life. Overall happiness is said to depend much on satisfaction in different life
domains (Glatzer, 2000), one of which is leisure travel.


A study of drive-alone/car-pool choice has been carried out using a disaggregate binomial logit model and data from a travel-to-work survey of staff at the atomic energy research establishment at Harwell. The work represented the first stage of a more general investigation of travel-to-work behaviour. Modelling format followed that of earlier drive-alone/car-pool choice studies, being based on the analysis of a data sub-set relating to individuals who either drove or car pooled. The work clearly showed the way in which various factors affect propensity to pool including distance to work, distance from potential pooling partners (there were indications that these had to be of a similar level in the job-grade hierarchy, and not necessarily nearest neighbours), sex and demands for cars from other household members. While the model that was developed was able to predict the behaviour of markedly different groups of Harwell workers well, there were some discrepancies from the findings of the earlier drive-alone/car-pool studies: possible reasons are discussed. More fundamentally, however, limitations of the modelling structure, which are likely to lead to overestimation of the effect of increased petrol price on the level of car pooling, are indicated. (Author/TRRL)


ABSTRACT Despite widespread use of strategic planning processes in universities, few leaders in higher education have taken advantage of competitive intelligence techniques. This paper highlights operational threats faced by today's higher education leaders and illustrates how competitive intelligence can help mitigate threats in a university environment. A useful framework for identifying appropriate competitive intelligence analytical techniques that may be utilized to minimize the overall impact of each threat is provided. INTRODUCTION Competitive intelligence (CI) techniques systematically and ethically gather, analyze and disseminate external information that can assist with organizational decision-making and the design of strategic and operational plans. (SCIP, 2004). Examples of CI include benchmarking, background checks, competitor assessments, network analysis, war gaming and won-loss analysis. Use of competitive intelligence practices continues to grow at a substantial pace among US corporations with spending for CI estimated in excess of $2billion annually in 2001 (SCIP, 2001). A 2004 survey revealed that 15.3% of companies reported expenditures of over $500,000 and another 11% reported spending more than $1 million that year on CI (SCIP 2004) . Yet interest in CI in higher education has remained primarily focused on the development of educational programs and curricula to prepare accredited competitive intelligence professionals (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2003; Miller, 2003, Gubeno et, al, 2003; Shelfer, 2003; Gilad, 2003). However, universities face a category of emerging threats including shrinking enrollment, rising costs, demographic changes, online competition, increasingly competitive fund-raising environments, accreditation pressures, recruiting needs, onerous regulatory requirements and shrinking state and federal funding opportunities. Indeed, the uncertainty emerging from these threats necessitates that universities place a strong emphasis on improving efficiency and effectiveness in how they structure, manage and deliver these services to its constituents. Competitive intelligence activities, as part of a broader strategic planning process, can assist a university with improving oversight of the environments by implementing competitive assessment techniques across university departments. STRATEGIC PLANNING IN UNIVERSITIES Strategic planning has been a relatively recent phenomenon in higher education as changing environments have forced universities to reinvent themselves to survive (Hughes and White, 2005). It has been argued that universities have been slow to adopt these techniques because of the lack of consensus in the utility of these practices for this environment (Rowley et al., 1997). Lerner (1999) suggested that universities have had limited success in applying traditional strategic planning models because of differences in the orientation of those implementing such models. For example, traditional strategic planning variables such as customer segment, market segment, competitive rivalry and motivation, reward systems and market-based outcomes do not align well with non-profit environments (Lerner, 1999; Wagner, 2003). Individuals who lack a traditional for-profit orientation may not understand or feel comfortable adapting some of these variables and processes for their non-profit environments. Finally, from an historical perspective, it appears that most university strategic planning efforts have not reached their potential either due to a lack of institutional support, appropriate planning coordination or institutional fortitude (Rowley, et al., 1997). Only a few studies have looked at the impact of university-wide strategic planning. For example, Rindfleish (2003) found that strategic planning in Australian universities was enhanced by the implementation of segment profiling which increased the identification of attractive market segments for universities to explore for further development. …


The history of the discovery and naming of specimens now referred to Myoictis is presented. A study of virtually all known specimens of Myoictis deposited in Museum collections was undertaken to clarify the number of species in this genus of endemic New Guinean dasyurid marsupials. Based on a number of morphological features four species are now recognised, namely M. melas, M. wallacei, M. wavicus n.stat. and Myoictis leucura n.sp. The form of the tail readily distinguishes the four species. The distribution of each species has been mapped and no overlap found in their ranges as presently known. Field observations are recounted. Data for all specimens examined is appended to facilitate future studies. WOOLLEY, P.A., 2005. Revision of the three-striped dasyures, genus Myoictis (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae), of New Guinea, with description of a new species. Records of the Australian Museum 57(3): 321-340.


The Motzfeldt Centre is the second of four centres of alkaline igneous activity which form the Igaliko Complex. A vertical exposure of 1700m shows several overlapping intrusive units of syenite and nepheline syenite (units SM1 to SM5), which bear mantle Sr isotope ratios and were emplaced by a combination of 5-10km radius ring fractures and block subsidence. The larvikitic parent to SM5 and the presence of a late alkali gabbro dyke, must attest to the availability of more basic magma at depth. Xenoliths from an earlier supracrustal sequence dominated by lavas, form. rafts up to 200-300m thick and several square kilometres in area. Marginal phonolites of the nepheline syenites (SM2, 3 and 4 in particular), which are thought to 'represent liquid compositions, bear a strong resemblance to phonolites from these lavas and they are quite possibly genetically related, A late sill- like body of lujavrite (eudialyte-nepheline microsyenite = SM6) rich in volatiles and "incompatible" elements, formed beneath some of these rafts. In general, phonolitic magmas were emplaced at temperatures of approximately 1000oC to form the larger units and were substantially solidified probably within 0.1-0.2 Ma. The considerable variation in rock types found in each major intrusion, is thought to be attributable to varying degrees of crystal fractionation in-situ and differential accumulation (by a variety of mechanisms), from an initially homogeneous magma. Of the extensive mineralogical variations which necessarily occurred, crystallisation of zirconium-rich aegirine depended on low oxygen fugacity, high peralkalinity and the absence of eudialyte. Electron probe microanalysis has shown that REE-bearing minerals are common accessories and may or may not have a negative Eu-anomaly; these may be LREE- or HREE-enriched, Both fractionation of phonolite magma and recycling of stoped nepheline syenites by partial re-melting could give rise to magma of lujavritic composition.


Observations of a group of S‐type symbiotic stars are presented: Hen 828, Hen 905, Hen 1103, Hen 1213, KX TrA (Cn 1‐2), AE Ara (PC 18), AS 255, AS 270, AS 289, Y CrA, AS 304, AS 316, AS 327, and CD −43°14304. The observations were made in three different epochs of observation: 1987, 1991, and 1995, except for Y CrA, which was observed in 1990. Several parameters are obtained for each object: spectral types of the late components; distances derived from these spectral types; interstellar reddening as determined from the Balmer decrement, considering optical depth effects; electron temperatures and densities; helium abundances, also determined considering optical depth effects; and characteristics of the hot components. It has been found that Hen 828 and Hen 1103 were possibly having an outburst in 1991; the same could be true for AS 270 in 1995 and CD −43°14304 in 1991. Another interesting object is Hen 905, which is surrounded by a nebulosity that could be a ring, reaching a distance of about 2′, with emission mainly in Hα and O vi λ6825.


Arbitration can serve as a necessary safe harbor from procedural and substantive cultural bias in the general public courts. Arbitration also can serve as a laboratory for process reforms as cultural minorities attempt to craft rules that better govern their lives than do the purportedly "one size fits all" rules that the majority has crafted. In so allowing cultural minorities to structure their lives and legal disputes in ways that reflect their particular needs, minority-culture arbitration also has great potential for habituating the general public to the realities of the lives of cultural minorities and to the notion that custom-made responses to these realities are both possible and appropriate. These two habituations would be likely to lead to easier acceptance of necessary process reforms that would better serve cultural minorities in the public courts.Each time cultural minorities use arbitration to contract around a hostile or dysfunctional rule of general application and to replace this rule with a better-serving custom-made rule, they have an opportunity to demonstrate to the general public that the process shortcomings that drove the cultural minorities from the general public courts are not intractable. They also have the opportunity to demonstrate to the general public the utility of custom-made solutions to minority-culture concerns and that these solutions to process shortcomings can be implemented with little cost to the general public. If minority-culture arbitration were to become routine, it is possible that the general public would habituate to the idea that process-customization is both practical and useful. Such habituation would lessen resistance to adoption of process reforms tailored to cultural minorities.Arbitration also can facilitate habituation in a larger social context. This second tier of habituation arises from the consequence that arbitration allows the minority culture to survive and even to flourish. Biased procedural and substantive law undermines the minority culture at the same time that it disadvantages the minority-culture litigant. Arbitration allows cultural minorities to protect themselves from these majoritarian procedural and substantive biases that deny the validity of their values and relationships and consequently undermine those values and relationships.The end product of this protective maneuver is a larger public space for the minority culture. As the minority culture flourishes, the general public more frequently comes into contact with that culture and habituates to its realties. Again, this habituation is likely to pave the way for process reforms in the majoritarian legal system.


ABSTRACT.
 Yellowstone National Park supports a small population (<300) of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Some individuals migrate during summer to areas characterized by reduced visibility, mixed habitat types, and a diverse predator community. Across areas selected by migratory and nonmigratory pronghorn, we documented cause-specific mortality of adults and fawns and assessed relative risk of predation by various predators. Coyotes (Canis latrans) accounted for 56% of adult predation and up to 79% of fawn predation. Cougars (Puma concolor) and wolves (Canis lupus) accounted for additional predation of adults, while cougars, black bears (Ursus americanus), and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) were documented killing fawns on rare occasions. Our results suggest that even when pronghorn are in the presence of multiple predator species, coyote predation on adults and fawns may predominate for populations inhabiting shrubsteppe habitat. However, the risk of predation by sympatric predators, particularly cougars, may be high for female pronghorn selecting mixed cover types during migration or for birthing purposes. While the direct effect of wolves on overall mortality was low, wolves may indirectly influence survival rates of adult females and fawns by altering the behavior and space use of sympatric predators, particularly coyotes.


Recent financial international scandals have generated hyped interest in the area of corporate governance as a mean to mitigate financial problems faced in developing nations. The purpose of this study is to examine the link between corporate governance structure and firm' financial performance in Egypt. The data for analysis are gathered from manual review of the financial statements and websites of the thirty enterprises that make up the (EGX 30) covering the four years period 20072010. Results from the study indicate that board size; the presence of audit committee; and audit quality significantly have relationship with firm' financial performance measured by ROA and ROE. The results also, indicate that board independence; and institutional ownership have no significant correlation with firm' financial performance. For CEO duality, the results indicate that CEO duality has a positive impact upon companies' financial performance measured by ROE, at the same time, is not correlated with the ROA measure of financial performance. This study is important because it offers evidence on the impact of corporate governance structure on firm financial performance. In addition, it provides useful information that is of great value to policy makers, academics and other stakeholders.


We analysed samples of Sparganophilus taken at the corners of its distribution area in Europe (UK, Germany and Italy). No mitochondrial genetic divergence within and amongst them was found, neither in COI nor in 16S. Further, the COI haplotype was also identical to two sequences from Ontario, Canada in the Barcoding of Life Data System (BOLD) database. Our European COI and 16S sequences showed only minimal differentiation (only 1 or 2 substitutions) from specimens newly collected in Illinois and Washington states (USA), as well as from a COI haplotype from Tennessee (USA) in BOLD. An additional COI haplotype from Illinois (found in BOLD) is 2.1% different from the other haplotypes but clearly belongs to the same lineage of Sparganophilus. This geographically broad but genetically compact group fits the morphological diagnosis of S. tamesis Benham, 1892 as revised by Jamieson (1971) and is seen as evidence that all European populations 1) belong to the same species, 2) derive from a recent introduction, 3) are conspecific with the most widespread species of Sparganophilus in North America, and that 4) S. tamesis is a senior synonym of S. eiseni Smith, 1895. The single European haplotype does not refute the possibility of its spread from a single introduced source population.


During the 1970s, vocabulary knowledge was a central topic within the field of Swedish sociolinguistics, often discussed from a democratic point of view focusing on inclusion and accessibility in the society. This study links up to this tradition by reporting a survey of how the vocabulary knowledge has changed over time in Sweden, building on data from theSwedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT). Ever since 1977, SweSAT has functioned as an instrument of selection to higher education. SweSAT consists of different quantitative and verbal subtests, and one of these subtest, the vocabulary test, is intended to assess understanding of words and concepts. The SweSAT vocabulary test is a multiple-choice test where no context is given. The study has been limited to comprise the period from the spring 2000 to the spring 2011. During this period, the vocabulary test consisted of 40 tasks at each occasion and was carried out by about40.000 participants each time. Based on data from the SweSAT vocabulary test, two substudies have been carried out. The first of these substudies focuses on differences in average test results over time. Since SweSAT is designed to rank the test takers as fairly as possible with regard to their expected study success,different tests are however not directly comparable. One solution to this problem is to restrict the comparison over time to different groups (i.e.based on age, educational background, and gender) in order to establish how the vocabulary knowledge has changed over time. The first substudy reports such an investigation of comparisons between groups, building on answers from 915, 491 participants. Over time, the average test score at the vocabulary test has decreased with about 2 points. During the same period we see a widening gap between different age groups. This widening gap can also be noticed when comparing test takers with or without university education. Other variables are of limited importance to explain the variation in test scores. A comparison of the average test score over time can, of course, not give any information of how the understanding of individual words has changed over time. However, every word that is given in a regular vocabulary test has previously been tried out on a smaller group of participants in connection with a regular SweSAT test (the test takers learn afterwards which part of the test that consisted of pretest tasks and which parts belonged to the regular test). By comparing the results for individual words from the pretests with the corresponding result from the regular test, changes in the understanding of individual words can however be tracked. The second substudy reports such an investigation of comparisons between pretests and regular vocabulary tests, building on results for a selection of151 words. When comparing the results from the pretests with the regular vocabulary tests, 110 of the 151 words included have changed significantly over time. For 75 of the words included (49%), the results have decreased between the pretests and the regular tests, whereas 36 (24%) of the words display a significant increase. As was the case in the first substudy, there are clear differences between age-groups, whereas the difference between females and males is almost non-existent. When looking for possible explanations of the results demonstrated, some tendencies to a connection between the improvement and frequency have been found, whereas no such relationship could be supported for the words that show a decreased result over time. However, there is a clear connection between vocabulary knowledge and word origin in the sense that words used also in English shows a better result than domestic words. (Less)


This article presents findings from a longitudinal qualitative study that examined teaching approaches of neophyte teachers in Israel during their 4-year exclusive teachers' training program for teaching Jewish subjects and first two years of teaching. The program wanted to promote change in secular pupils' attitudes toward Jewish subjects. We found a high incidence of teaching using positivistic approaches of knowledge transmission and the teachers adopted a particular teaching approach early into their training program that they continue to employ. Can teaching oriented in the transmission of central cultural value knowledge, with pupils as passive receptacles, create a meaningful encounter?


Egg development and growth of Sigara alternata in southeastern Pennsylvania, USA were evaluated in six fluctuating temperature regimes with daily maxima ranging from 12.0° to 21. 5°C. Developmental rate was positively correlated with increased magnitude of the diel temperature pulse. Developmental acceleration was most apparent for environments pulsing beyond 15.0°C for both stages. Oviposition rates were studied at natural temperatures during the initial days of reproduction. Egg deposition was sporadic but highly correlated with maximum diel temperatures. A critical temperature region of 11.0—12.5°C was observed for initiation and maintenance of egg laying. Metabolic rates were measured using a different respirometer. The thermal response of metabolism varied with animal soze and the range of test temperatures. The energy demand per uniy weight of tissue was inversely related to body size at all temperatures. Adult population metabolism decreased exponentially during the peak reproductive period due to high mortality. Energy budgets were determined for nymphal development in all thermal regimes. Net growth efficiencies and production/respiration ratios for Sigara alternata ranged from 49.7—73.4% and 0.9—2.7 respectively. Assimilation rates increased with rinsing temperatures and varied between 1.05 and 3.52 J.mg—1.day—1 [=0.25 —0.84 cal.mg—1.day—1]. Net growth efficiencies tended to decrease with increased temperatures due to higher maintenance costs. The significance of fluctuating temperatures to the bioenergetics, developmental dynamics, and ecology are discussed .


In the last two to three decades, there has been a great deal of scholarly and media attention placed on lawyer dissatisfaction, generating a certain "conventional wisdom" about the endemic dissatisfaction of lawyers. During this period, however, the empirical literature has fairly consistently suggested that lawyers generally experience a great deal of job and career satisfaction. Recent scholarship has recognized this dichotomy in the lawyer satisfaction/dissatisfaction literature. This article summarizes all of the empirical work on lawyer satisfaction/dissatisfaction and attempts to reconcile this seemingly conflicting data. The article begins with a chronological overview of the published research and of samples of the media descriptions of lawyers' mental health, well-being, and satisfaction/dissatisfaction. It then analyzes this collective data set in an effort to reconcile and understand somewhat conflicting data, focusing on specific subsets of the legal profession: experience levels (senior lawyers versus junior lawyers), practice settings (large firm, small firm, government, and public interest), and demographic profiles (women and racial minorities). The article concludes with suggestions for further research and thoughts on what legal education can be doing to better frame students' expectations for the practice of law.


Industrial robotic systems often require high performance control of a number of converter-fed motors. Although the advantages of using industrial robots during the manufacturing process are numerous the initial capital cost of the robotic system can be prohibitively expensive. One possibility to reduce these costs is to construct the multi-motor drive system using component minimized converters. This article develops a three-motor drive system supplied using a seven-leg voltage source inverter (VSI). The three-motor drive offers a saving of two inverter legs when compared to the standard equivalent triple three-phase VSI topology. It is believed that this supply system is particularly well suited to three-axis robots often found in pick and place applications. The performance of the seven-leg VSI-fed three-motor drive is verified by simulation and experiments using a custom built rig.


This article examines the trajectories of sound practice in Indian cinema and conceptualises the use of sound since the advent of talkies. By studying and analysing a number of sound- films from different technological phases of direct recording, magnetic recording and present- day digital recording, the article proposes three corresponding models that are developed on the basis of observations on the use of sound in Indian cinema. These models take their point of departure in specific phases of technological transitions and intend to highlight characteristics defining the sound aesthetics that emerges from these different phases of sound practice. The models furthermore seek to frame the aesthetics within theoretical frameworks of sound studies in general. The argument developed following the observations is that, through different phases of cinematic sound practice, Indian films have been primarily shifting the relationship between audio and visual from a merely vococentric contract to a creative realm of sound, in which audience engagement with the moving image is increasingly instigated by the spatial reordering of environmental sound or ambience. I term this arrangement of sound 'The Cinematic Soundscape', which is crafted by digital technologies such as 'sync' recording and multi-track sound design, emphasising a cognitive theoretical premise in cinematic sound studies.


The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 has instituted major changes in providing for the poor in the United States. This article examines the importance of evaluating the impact of this legislation from a social work perspective. Using Mannheim as a theoretical orientation, welfare reform is examined in relation to dominant ideologies of the 90's. The salience of social work research, particularly qualitative research, in evaluating welfare reform outcomes is explored. Social workers are encouraged to challenge current ideology and utilize social work expertise to conduct research and disseminate information documenting the achievements and misfortunes of clients as a result of welfare reform


Renin is the main determinant of angiotensin (Ang) II levels. It, therefore, always appeared desirable to reduce Ang II levels by direct inhibition of renin. So far, specific renin inhibitors lacked potency and/or oral availability. We tested the new orally active nonpeptidic renin inhibitor SPP100 (Aliskiren, an octanamide with a 50% inhibitory concentration [IC50] in the low nanomolar range) in 18 healthy volunteers on a constant 100 mmol/d sodium diet using a double-blind, 3-way crossover protocol. In 3 periods of 8 days, separated by wash-outs of 6 days, each volunteer received 2 dosage levels of Aliskiren (low before high; 40 and 80 or 160 and 640 mg/d) and randomized placebo or 20 mg enalapril. Aliskiren was well tolerated. Not surprisingly, blood pressure and heart rate remained unchanged in these normotensive subjects. There was a dose-dependent decrease in plasma renin activity, Ang I, and Ang II following single doses of Aliskiren starting with 40 mg. Inhibition was still marked and significant after repeated dosing with maximal decreases in Ang II levels by 89% and 75% on Days 1 and 8, respectively, when the highest dose of Aliskiren was compared with placebo. At the same time, mean plasma active renin was increased 16- and 34-fold at the highest dose of Aliskiren. Plasma drug levels of Aliskiren were dose-dependent with maximal concentrations reached between 3 to 6 hours after administration; steady state was reached between 5 and 8 days after multiple dosing. Less than 1% of dose was excreted in the urine. Plasma and urinary aldosterone levels were decreased after doses of Aliskiren ≥80 mg and after enalapril. Aliskiren at 160 and 640 mg enhanced natriuresis on Day 1 by +45% and +62%, respectively, compared with placebo (100%, ie, 87±11 mmol/24h) and enalapril (+54%); kaliuresis remained unchanged. In conclusion, the renin inhibitor Aliskiren dose-dependently decreases Ang II levels in humans following oral administration. The effect is long-lasting and, at a dose of 160 mg, is equivalent to that of 20 mg enalapril. Aliskiren has the potential to become the first orally active renin inhibitor that provides a true alternative to ACE-inhibitors and Ang II receptor antagonists in therapy for hypertension and other cardiovascular and renal diseases.


In this paper, we report our progress on the development of a simulation framework for optical local area networks, which enables a multi-layer network simulation and hence bridges the gap between the traditional signal-level and traffic-level simulators. The framework, called DRAGON (discrete-model register for Artifex-based general-purpose optical local area network simulation), is built upon the Artifex modeling platform, and it models a wide register of fiber-optic components, emulating features at multiple network layers, spanning over signal and noise power monitoring, bit error rate (BER) estimation, packet collision detection, and propagation/transmission delay emulation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DRAGON by modeling a novel two-tier fault-tolerant wavelength division multiplexing local area network (WDM LAN) architecture, and we show the impact of the proposed WDM LAN architecture on the quality of service requirements of WDM traffic.


Rosenblatt's algorithm is a recursive method that is often used to adjust the weights of a single-layer perceptron. It is capable of partitioning the input signal space into two regions that are separated by a hyperplane boundary. Thus, when the values of the input signal are linearly separable, the algorithm will converge to a stable stationary point that yields zero mean-square error. The authors examine the stationary points of Rosenblatt's algorithm when the data are not linearly separable. A system identification model is used to generate the data. An expression is also derived for the probability of an incorrect classification of the output signal when the weights are converged at a stationary point.<<ETX>>


To study health habits is the way how to get information about population's attitude and knowledge about health. The latest 2006 FINBALT monitoring questionnaire contains full spectrum of questions about health care in Latvia and the Baltic region. The aim of the current review paper is to compare some FINBALT results between the states and regions and find out new facts about self-perceived physical and health condition of older persons (65–75 years old). The data from two 2006 FINBALT Health Monitor for adults aged 55–64 surveys were used to make comparisons in physical activities and health trends between Latvia and Finland. To find out new facts about older persons (65–75 years old) we did a survey of visitors of pensioner day centres in Rezekne and Daugavpils towns. Our survey shows that there is no major difference between the results we got in pensioner day centres and in Latvia during this research, but there is a dramatic difference with the results which were got in Finland. Latvian inhabitants' self-perceived physical and health condition results are worse than in Finland. In Latvia for older people sedentary life is common (persons who practice 30 minutes long physical exercise at least 2–3 times per week in Finland are 74%, in Latvia – 25%).


Jackfruit belongs to the family Moraceae and is used as a novel source of starch. In the native stage, starch granules are generally insoluble at room temperature, extremely resistant to enzymatic hydrolysis and display an inability to endure processing conditions related to pH, temperature, shear rate and freeze–thawing. Modification can be carried out using chemical, physical or enzymatic methods, or a combination of these. To solve this problem, modification of starches is usually conducted to alter pasting, gelatinization and retrogradation behavior. Modified starches have been recognized as a multifunctional excipient in various industries. This review covers a wide array of topics relating to starch, including: methods of modification; the impact of modification on morphology, crystallinity, viscosity and functionality; and the application of modified starch.


Emergency control systems influence the design, development, and maintenance of public infrastructure in a significant manner. These systems help to restore the infrastructure and sometimes prevent damage in cases of crisis. The road transportation system is an important part of public infrastructure and is one of the critical assets of a nation. Recovering from emergency situations on the road has been one of the major concerns of the traffic management personnel. Many software systems have been developed using advanced technologies to help in the detection of, prevention of and recovery from road crisis. We have developed the CubeView visualisation system based on the concepts of data-visualisation and data mining. Visualisation of loop-detector traffic data can help in the identification of potentially important patterns embedded in the data. CubeView helps in summarising the major trends in traffic patterns for both historical and current data. This paper presents the idea of applying the concepts of data-visualisation and outlier detection to road traffic data using the CubeView system for emergency situation control and management planning.


BACKGROUND
The term 'hardcore' has been applied to use of smoking tobacco and generally referred to as the inability or unwillingness of regular smokers to quit. The component constructs of hardcore except nicotine dependence are product neutral. With the use of 'time to first chew' as a measure of nicotine dependence, hardcore definition can be extended to characterize smokeless tobacco users. Hardcore users respond less to tobacco cessation interventions, and are prone to tobacco induced diseases including cancer. Thus identifying hardcore users would help in estimate the burden of high risk population for tobacco induced diseases. Smokeless tobacco use is predominant and accounts for more than 50% of oral cancer in India. Hence, hardcore chewing information could be used for planning of tobacco and cancer control interventions. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated factors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS
Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)-India 2010 data were analyzed to quantify hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India with following five criteria: (1) current daily smokeless tobacco use; (2) no quit attempt in the past 12 months of survey or last quit attempt of less than 24 hours duration; (3) no intention to quit in next 12 months or not interested in quitting; (4) time to first use of smokeless tobacco product within 30 minutes of waking up; and (5) knowledge of smokeless tobacco hazards.

RESULTS
The number of hardcore smokeless tobacco users among adult Indians is estimated to be 5% (39.5 million). This group comprises 23.2% of daily smokeless tobacco users. The population prevalence varied from 1.4-9.1% across different national regions of India. Logistic regression modeling indicated age, education and employment status to be the major predictors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India.

CONCLUSIONS
The presence of a huge number (39.5 million) of hardcore smokeless tobacco users is a challenge to tobacco control and cancer prevention in India. There is an unmet need for a universal tobacco cessation programme and intensification of anti-tobacco education in communities.


Background: In order to develop oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) lignin as a nutraceutical and health supplement, the investigation of its potential in interacting with other drugs via inhibition of drug-metabolizing enzymes (DMEs) would ensure product safety. Objective: The study was aimed to investigate the in vitro effect of oil palm EFB lignin and its main oxidation compounds on phase II DME UDP-glucuronosyltransferases (UGTs) in rat liver and kidney microsomes. Materials and Methods: The p-nitrophenol (p-NP) and 4-methylumbelliferone (4-MU) were employed as probe substrates in glucuronidation assays. The effect of soda oil palm EFB lignin on Vmax, Km, CLint, Ki, and mode of inhibition of 4-MU glucuronidation in RLM was also determined. Results: The inhibitory potency of oil palm EFB lignin for both p-NP and 4-MU glucuronidation in rat liver microsome (RLM) and rat kidneys microsomes (RKM) was found to be in the rank order of soda > kraft > organosolv. However, the inhibitory potency of its main oxidation compounds were in the rank order of vanillin > syringaldehyde > p-hydroxybenzaldehyde. Soda oil palm EFB lignin exhibited mixed-type inhibition against 4-MU glucuronidation in RLM, showing the change in apparent Vmax and with only a minor effect on Km compared with control. Conclusions: The findings showed that effect of oil palm EFB lignin on both p-NP and 4-MU glucuronidation in RLM and RKM was enhanced by the presence of vanillin as well as flavonoids. Kinetic study showed that soda oil palm EFB lignin exhibited strong inhibition on UGT activity in RLM with mixed-type inhibition mode. Abbreviations used: p-NP: p-Nitrophenol, 4-MU: 4-Methylumbelliferone, EFB: Empty fruit bunch, DME: Drug-metabolizing enzymes, UGT: UDP-glucuronosyltransferase, Vmax: Maximal reaction velocity, Km: Michaelis-Menten constant, CLint: Intrinsic clearance, Ki: Dissociation constant of an inhibitor enzyme complex, 4-MUG: 4-Methylumbelliferone glucuronide, DMSO: Dimethyl sulfoxide, IC50: Half maximal inhibitory concentration, p-NPG: p-Nitrophenol glucuronide, RKM: Rat kidneys microsomes, RLM: Rat liver microsome, UDPGA: UDP-glucuronic acid, TCA: trichloroacetic acid, MPA: mycophenolic acid


Wasps of the family Ichneumonidae recorded as parasitoids of Choristoneura Lederer (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in North America are summarized. A total of 113 species in 45 genera and 11 subfamilies have been reliably reared from 10 species of Nearctic Choristoneura. Twenty-one more species are listed as possible parasitoids of Nearctic Choristoneura, based on rearings from Palearctic Choristoneura species and (or) limited introductions to North America. Well-illustrated identification keys are provided to the subfamilies, all genera, and species of 39 of the genera. The species of Choristoneura used as hosts by the 113 ichneumonid species are tabulated, as well as the wasps' geographic ranges. The biological characteristics of the ichneumonid subfamilies parasitizing Choristoneura spp. are described and compared. Erroneous Choristoneura host records and synonyms for all ichneumonid taxa previously recorded from Nearctic Choristoneura spp. are given. Phaeogenes gaspesianus Provancher is moved to Dirophanes Förster, forming D. gaspesianus (Provancher) comb. nov. New host records are Phaeogenes cacoeciae Viereck and Scambus hispae (Harris) on C. rosaceana (Harris), D. gaspesianus and Pimpla disparis Viereck on C. fumiferana (Clemens) (P. disparis having been introduced to New Brunswick to control the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)), and Exochus turgidus Holmgren on C. occidentalis Freeman.


Gaussian multiplicative noise is commonly used as a stochastic regularisation technique in training of deterministic neural networks. A recent paper reinterpreted the technique as a specific algorithm for approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks; several extensions ensued. We show that the log-uniform prior used in all the above publications does not generally induce a proper posterior, and thus Bayesian inference in such models is ill-posed. Independent of the log-uniform prior, the correlated weight noise approximation has further issues leading to either infinite objective or high risk of overfitting. The above implies that the reported sparsity of obtained solutions cannot be explained by Bayesian or the related minimum description length arguments. We thus study the objective from a non-Bayesian perspective, provide its previously unknown analytical form which allows exact gradient evaluation, and show that the later proposed additive reparametrisation introduces minima not present in the original multiplicative parametrisation. Implications and future research directions are discussed.


This article aims to assess the level of implementation of e-learning in the process of classroom teaching and learning in Faculties and Extensions of the Catholic University of Mozambique (UCM). The focus is: i) identify the Basic Units (UBs) integrating e- learning; ii) identify opportunities and limitations of integration; iii) evaluate the organization and implementation of e-learning. The study took a mixed approach of data collection and analysis that is structured in two parts: i) qualitative, based on a process of analysis of documents; ii) quantitative, based on an online questionnaire aiming at listening to the experiences of e-learning within the UBs. The study results show that the majority (seven) of the twelve UBs teach e-learning courses, however it is only at the master and doctorate level and solely one at the undergraduate level. E-learning is mainly implemented as a support for face-to-face teaching where digital platforms have repository function and submission of works. At the organizational and cultural level there is still no institutionalization and an accepted view on e-learning implementation. Most UBs lack confidence as a cause of non-implementation of e-learning courses in general or at the undergraduate level. Keywords:  e-learning; higher education; teaching and learning process; sustainability


Agroforestry represents an opportunity to reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere by increasing carbon (C) stocks in agricultural lands. Agroforestry practices may also promote mineral N fertilization and the use of N2-fixing legumes that favor the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG) (N2O and CH4). The present study evaluates the net GHG balance in two adjacent coffee plantations, both highly fertilized (250 kg N ha−1 year−1): a monoculture (CM) and a culture shaded by the N2-fixing legume tree species Inga densiflora (CIn). C stocks, soil N2O emissions and CH4 uptakes were measured during the first cycle of both plantations. During a 3-year period (6–9 years after the establishment of the systems), soil C in the upper 10 cm remained constant in the CIn plantation (+0.09 ± 0.58 Mg C ha−1 year−1) and decreased slightly but not significantly in the CM plantation (−0.43 ± 0.53 Mg C ha−1 year−1). Aboveground carbon stocks in the coffee monoculture and the agroforestry system amounted to 9.8 ± 0.4 and 25.2 ± 0.6 Mg C ha−1, respectively, at 7 years after establishment. C storage rate in the phytomass was more than twice as large in the CIn compared to the CM system (4.6 ± 0.1 and 2.0 ± 0.1 Mg C ha−1 year−1, respectively). Annual soil N2O emissions were 1.3 times larger in the CIn than in the CM plantation (5.8 ± 0.5 and 4.3 ± 0.3 kg N-N2O ha−1 year−1, respectively). The net GHG balance at the soil scale calculated from the changes in soil C stocks and N2O emissions, expressed in CO2 equivalent, was negative in both coffee plantations indicating that the soil was a net source of GHG. Nevertheless this balance was in favor of the agroforestry system. The net GHG balance at the plantation scale, which includes additionally C storage in the phytomass, was positive and about 4 times larger in the CIn (14.59 ± 2.20 Mg CO2 eq ha−1 year−1) than in the CM plantation (3.83 ± 1.98 Mg CO2 eq ha−1 year−1). Thus converting the coffee monoculture to the coffee agroforestry plantation shaded by the N2-fixing tree species I. densiflora would increase net atmospheric GHG removals by 10.76 ± 2.96 Mg CO2 eq ha−1 year−1 during the first cycle of 8–9 years.


Leaders of important enterprises are often heard to have remarked, "If I had only known--, I would have chosen a different strategy." The blank may have been end of the Cold War, downsizing of the defense establishment, the run-up of interest rates, the bursting of the real estate price bubble, or similar events. Some of these events are purely economic; some have significant political components; others may have large sociological or legal components. They all affect the functioning of enterprise, and it is up to the business strategist to try to look ahead to make sure that an appropriate work force is at hand, that inventory stocks (raw materials or finished goods) are adequate, that key items of fixed capital are on order or already installed. THE FORECASTER'S JOB The economic forecaster's job is to try to look ahead, unconditionally; to assess the implications of "what-if" conditional options; to present appropriate error bands of judgment; and to recommend some appropriate lines of action. I plan to tell you something about my latest investigations to make very short-run economic forecasts--up to six months, with frequent replication, weekly or even daily--but also to comment on both medium term forecasts--up to 3 to 5 years--and longer term forecasts--up to 10 years. Some economists have an eye on longer horizons for several decades into the future--but those are highly conditional scenarios and not, strictly speaking, forecasts in the usual sense of the term. Forecasting for business may overlap considerably with forecasting for public bodies but the targets in the bottom-line may be quite different and the scope may be quite broad. The national public sector is particularly interested in macroeconomic forecasts of total production (GDP), inflation (change in the CPI), the unemployment rate, the number of jobs created, the internal balance (surplus or deficit) and the external balance (current account), representative interest rates and currency exchange rates. International public organizations have the same bottom-line interests but they also follow distributions among countries or regions. Local government units have a much more restricted scope, but usually are interested in local area analogues of the same magnitudes that national governments follow. The primary targets for private business are company sales, profits, debt ratios, debt service burdens, market valuations of equities, company inventory positions, and the impact of state, local, or national legislation. The biggest private companies, whose sales may be as large as one-half percent or more of GDP, may have direct interest in the national macroeconomic magnitudes, but for the most part their interest is indirect; that is to say, they are mainly interested in macroeconomic magnitudes because they shape the environment for company performance. At the present time, however, the most frequent inquiry that is posed to economic forecasters is "Where are interest rates headed?" In my service as a board member and chairman of the economic policy committee of an investment banking company, I find myself being quizzed mainly about the course of interest rates. But this firm's revenues are partially indexed to inflation; so there is corresponding curiosity about the course of inflation. Overall macroeconomic performance is less interesting for this company, except as it has indirect effects on the company's bottom line. During the years when I was responsible for much of the work at Wharton Econometrics, I had to serve hundreds of users, some in specific microeconomic investigations but mostly in overall macroeconomic studies, I found that it was necessary to be prepared to relate overall economic performance to the fortunes of many diverse users of forecasts. FORECAST ACCURACY Economic forecasters, whether by judgment or by formal system, are well aware of the inevitable presence of error. Also, those who engage in this activity with a strong scholarly background are well aware of the orders of magnitude of error and their root causes; nevertheless we serve as the butt of jokes by many outsiders who do not realize just how difficult it is to forecast the economy accurately. …