The vulnerability of ocean should be assessed to establish the climate change adaptation policy in field of the ocean, which has big effect on human and natural system. In this study, the criteria for assessing vulnerability of ocean to climate change were employed in terms of sensitivity, adaptative capacity and exposure. And suitable indicators for the criteria were selected and spatial data set for the indicators was prepared. In the ocean sector, the data for indicators were divided into two types, such as the inland and ocean data. The inland data were extrapolated and integrated to the coordinate of ocean data for the vulnerability assessment to climate change. As a result, the spatially diverse distribution of vulnerability on the ocean could be derived from the integration of two types of data. The results showed that southwestern ocean is much more sensitive than west and east ocean. Also southwestern ocean of exposure ratio of change is higher than the other part of ocean. On the other hand the adaptative capacity found that the highest in east ocean. The vulnerability assessment result showed southwestern ocean is more vulnerable than the other part of ocean.


BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Color change of composite resin restorations is one the most common causes for replacing these restorations, which might occur due to internal and external factors. This research was carried out to study and compare color change value of three types of composite resins in distilled water during the first 24 hours after exposure to light. METHODS: In this laboratory research, 120 samples were prepared from three types of composites (Z350, Z250 and Heliomolar) and were divided into 3 groups of 40. Samples with 2 mm thickness and 7 mm diameter were prepared. After assessing the initial color by spectrophotometer, samples were exposed to distilled water for 1, 6, 12 and 24 hours, respectively. Then, the final color was assessed by EasyShade device and the color change value (ΔE) was calculated for all samples. Moreover, ΔE<3.3 was clinically acceptable. FINDINGS: In 12h group, Heliomolar composite showed lowest color change value compared with two other composites (Z350=1.385, Z250=1.179 and Heliomolar=0.854) (p<0.05), while no significant difference was observed in other groups. Furthermore, lowest color change value in each composite was observed 1 hour after curing (Z350=0.352, Z250=0.641 and Heliomolar=0.298) and color change value increased 24 hours after curing (Z350=1.888, Z250=1.903 and Heliomolar=1.929). CONCLUSION: Results of the study revealed that color change value of all three composites in distilled water was less than 3.3 after 24 hours and it was clinically acceptable.


The Fram Strait between Svalbard and Greenland is the only deep water connection between the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. A detailed understanding of this region, however, is difficult due to the absence of clear marine magnetic and other geophysical data. Within the last years the Alfred-Wegener-Institute conducted several geophysical data sets in order to solve some of the remaining problems in the Fram Strait and the adjacent basins (Molloy and Boreas Basin).In this contribution we present a new aeromagnetic data grid, new seismic reflection data and existing gravimetric data that provide new insights into the geodynamic evolution of this area. These data are the basis for estimations of initial opening scenarios, and palaeobathymetric maps. Seismic reflection lines crossing the entire Molloy and Boreas basins show rough basement topography and a deep axial valley. Roughness calculations also indicate ultra-slow spreading rates in the whole area. Using the age information of the aeromagnetic data, the thermal subsidence for oceanic crust corrected for the sediment load fits the observed basement depth reasonably well in the Boreas and Molloy basins. A compilation of additional seismic lines in this area contributes the basement depth and sediment distribution. Combining all information of the seismic data, the aeromagnetic data and the gravity data, a model of the evolution of the northern North Atlantic is created. The latest results of this palaeobathymetric study for the Fram Strait and its subsequent basins are shown.


In this thesis, I enquire into how the USA – our world's wealthiest and most powerful nation – and its federal government has dealt with two of its most severe natural disasters: the drought and dust storms that plagued the Great Plains during the 1930's, i.e. the Dust Bowl, and Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in late August 2005. I attempt to identify differences and similarities and analyze if and, in that case, how the hegemonic politico-economic paradigm affected the federal management of these crises. This comparison is made relevant by the fact that two differing paradigms were at play during these events. In the thirties, President Franklin D. Roosevelt launched his "New Deal", a series of counter cyclical measures in line with the Keynesian school of economics, as a response to the overwhelming economic depression as well as the raging drought. In sharp contrast, Hurricane Katrina swept over a country ridden by decades of neoliberal governance.I show that political economy plays an important role in the success and/or failure of, in this case, the United States' management of natural disasters. Finally, I argue for the return (or, rather, the creation) of an expanded and more socially and environmentally conscious public sector, which, in times of crisis, is able to represent all of its citizens – regardless of class or race.


Volatile sex pheromone was collected from the extruded pheromone gland of females of the spotted stalk borer moth Chilo partellus and trapped on glass wool. The pheromone was collected from females on the night of eclosion, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th scotophases thereafter. The female sex pheromone components, (Z)-11-hexadecenal and (Z)-11-hexadecen-1-ol were identified by gas chromatography co-injection with synthetic authentic compounds and confirmed by GC-mass spectrometry. The quantity of the pheromone components was determined by comparison of GC peak areas with that of (E,Z)-3,13-octadecadienyl acetate as an internal standard. Periodicity in the pheromone emission was uni-modal with a peak about the 7-10 h into the scotophase. During the peak period, (Z)-11-hexadecenal was emitted at a rate of 43.1, 30.9, 21.5 and 16.5 ng/30 min on the day of eclosion, 1st, 3rd and 5th scotophases, respectively. A marked reduction in the release rate of the pheromone components was recorded with progressing age of females. This decrease was faster for (Z)-11-hexadecen-I-ol than for (Z)-11-hexadecenal which resulted in a spectacular shift in the ratio (Z)-11-hexadecen-I-ol ranging from about 1:1 at eclosion to 9:1, 22:1 and 32:1 in the 1st, 3rd and 5th scotophases, respectively. The age-dependent shift in both release rate and ratio of pheromone components corresponds to the change in attractiveness of females to mate-searching males. The periodicity in the quantity and blend ratios of C. partellus pheromone is discussed in light of development of a pheromone-based bait for the management of this pest. Key words: Periodicity, Lepidoptera, Pyralidae, Chilo partellus, sex pheromone, pheromone East and Central African Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences Vol.6(2) 2003: 36-42


The Transient Tracers in the Ocean (TTO) study was an experiment to investigate ocean mixing as deduced from the distribution of radiochemical tracers introduced into the atmosphere and subsequently into the oceans during the 1958-1962 nuclear bomb tests. The results of this study together with knowledge about the chemistry of oceanic CO{sub 2} can be used to help understand oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO{sub 2}. The experiment lasted 4 years and consisted of the following parts: (1) (1981); (3) laboratory analysis (1982); and (4) completion, data analysis, and reporting (1983). Shipboard measurements were published by the Scripps Physical and Chemical Oceanographic Data Facility as the T.T.O. Preliminary Hydrographic Data Reports Vols. I-IV. Recently, revisions to some of the previously reported measurements have been made and estimates of total CO{sub 2} have been calculated.


Time-of-Flight (ToF) and other IR-based cameras that register depth are becoming more and more affordable in consumer electronics. This paper aims to improve a realtime hand gesture interaction system by augmenting it with a ToF camera. First, the ToF camera and the RGB camera are calibrated, and a mapping is made from the depth data to the RGB image. Then, a novel hand detection algorithm is introduced based on depth and color. This not only improves detection rates, but also allows for the hand to overlap with the face, or with hands from other persons in the background. The hand detection algorithm is evaluated in these settings, and compared to previous algorithms. Furthermore, the depth information allows us to track the position of the hand in 3D, allowing for more interesting modes of interaction. Finally, the hand gesture recognition algorithm is applied to the depth data as well, and compared to the recognition based on the RGB images. The result is a real-time hand gesture interaction system that allows for complex 3D gestures and is not disturbed by objects or persons in the background.


From the 6th century AD onward, the Sasanian Empire tried to build up its military strength and defense system by dividing the country into four Kusts or quarters and erected fortifications and fortified walls in each Kust. One of these defensive walls was erected in the northern Kust in order to defend the borders of the empire against northern nomads. Perhaps the most important defensive walls of the empire in the northern quarter were in the passes of the northern Caucasus, especially at Darband. These fortifications were heavily damaged in the course of Sasanian-Byzantine wars (AD 603-628), which lead to the defeat of the Sasanian Empire. This was the advent of the disintegration of the Sasanian dynasty, which was later completed by Arab Muslim raids. The study of the archaeological, numismatic and literary evidence reveals that from this time (AD 623) onward, the Sasanians lost their control over the northern quarter and only practiced their weak domination over western and southern parts of the empire. The situation was like this until the downfall of the Sasanian dynasty through Arab Muslims and their penetration into Ādurbādagān (AD 643).


This paper investigates the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta, China. First, it discusses the interplay of formal and informal (relationship-based) institutions from the point of view of institutional economics, with a focus on economies with weak formal contracting and property rights institutions. Second, it describes the institutional environment for doing business in China, and in the PRD in particular. Third, it uses data obtained from a survey among executives of Hong Kong electronics SMEs with business operations in the PRD to gain insights into their perceptions on the importance and the motives of using personal relationships for business in PRD in general, and on the impact of personal relationships on different strategic business decisions (on location, partner, and formal governance structures) for companies' production as well as innovation activities. The results confirm the importance of personal relationships for doing business in the PRD, in general. There is evidence of substantial differences as to the role of personal relationships between production and innovation activities.


Magnetic nanoparticles are very promising for various applications in medicine. In this research the relaxation behaviour of superparamagnetic particles is investigated. Magnetic relaxation is defined as the return or adjustment to equilibrium after a change of the external magnetic field. Superparamagnetic nanoparticles have the same high magnetic response as ferromagnets, but exhibit no hysteresis. This makes them particularly suited for relaxation experiments. The relaxation behaviour is in
uenced by both characteristics of the particles and their environment. This is used in clinical applications, which include in vitro sensing and immunoassays.
Physical models describing the relaxation behaviour of both spherical and cylindrical particles are made. Cylindrical particles are thought to be beneficial due to their shape anisotropy. Simulations show indeed that cylindrical particles are allowed to have larger volume at the superparamagnetic limit, indicating a higher magnetic response due to the increased amount of magnetic material. However, surface effects counteract this effect.
Quantification of these surface effects was outside the scope of this research, but measurements of the magnetization curves of spherical and cylindrical particles showed that the surface effects are larger than the shape anisotropy effects in the superparamagnetic regime.
The relaxation behaviour was measured with two different setups i.e. a superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometer measuring the relaxation as a
function of time and a differential transformer measuring the susceptibility as a function of frequency. The SQUID magnetometer setup was designed and built in our own lab,
partly during this assignment. It uses a static magnetic field to align the magnetic particles.
After the field is switched off, the particles will return to a random orientation. The corresponding decrease of magnetic moment as a function of time is measured with the SQUID. The setup using the differential transformer was already developed at Utrecht University, where the measurements took place as well. This setup uses an oscillating magnetic field to align the particles. At low frequencies, the particles are able to align to the magnetic field before it changes direction. As the frequency increases, full alignment is not possible anymore. This transition point corresponds to the relaxation time.
Multiple samples were used to verify the simulation model with the experiments. Unfortunately, none of the samples was able to confirm or reject the simulation models. The
relaxation time of samples containing iron oxide particles was outside the measurement regime for both setups. Samples containing spherical nickel particles showed sedimentation and clustering. At last, the cylindrical nickel particles could not be compared to the simulation model, since they turned out to be ferromagnetic instead of superparamagnetic.


Abstract. Assimilation of in situ and satellite data in mechanistic terrestrial ecosystem models helps to constrain critical model parameters and reduce uncertainties in the simulated energy, water and carbon fluxes. So far the assimilation of eddy covariance measurements from flux-tower sites has been conducted mostly for individual sites ("single-site" optimization). Here we develop a variational data assimilation system to optimize 21 parameters of the ORCHIDEE biogeochemical model, using net CO2 flux (NEE) and latent heat flux (LE) measurements from 12 temperate deciduous broadleaf forest sites. We assess the potential of the model to simulate, with a single set of inverted parameters, the carbon and water fluxes at these 12 sites. We compare the fluxes obtained from this "multi-site" (MS) optimization to those of the prior model, and of the "single-site" (SS) optimizations. The model-data fit analysis shows that the MS approach decreases the daily root-mean-square difference (RMS) to observed data by 22%, which is close to the SS optimizations (25% on average). We also show that the MS approach distinctively improves the simulation of the ecosystem respiration (Reco), and to a lesser extent the gross primary productivity (GPP), although we only assimilated net CO2 flux. A process-oriented parameter analysis indicates that the MS inversion system finds a unique combination of parameters which is not the simple average of the different SS sets of parameters. Finally, in an attempt to validate the optimized model against independent data, we observe that global-scale simulations with MS optimized parameters show an enhanced phase agreement between modeled leaf area index (LAI) and satellite-based observations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI).


The present study compared 6–11 years old with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) and those with moderate learning difficulties (MLD) on measures of memory (verbal short-term and working memory, visuo-spatial short-term and working memory), literacy and numeracy, and IQ. The findings indicate that children with DCD appear to be impaired in all four areas of memory function; in particular they performed at significantly lower levels than children with MLD in measures of verbal short-term memory, visuo-spatial short-term and working memory. In contrast, performance of children with MLD in the memory measures was within age-expected levels, with deficits observed only in verbal working memory tasks. There were also differential links between memory and attainment between the two groups, and these were significant even after statistically accounting for the contribution of IQ. Reasons for why working memory contributes to learning in these two developmental groups are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.


Using fiscal resources to achieve results is critical for equitable development. Accordingly, many countries have sought to strengthen their PFM systems, following a fairly standardized set of reform recommendations and approaches. Yet, the results achieved, as well as the pace of reforms and the areas of progress vary considerably across countries. From an impact perspective, it is critical to understand what accounts for such different rates of progress. While non-technical drivers such as 'political commitment' are widely considered important, to date there has been little systematic analysis of how such drivers matter for reform progress, or how to utilize such insights when developing and pursuing PFM reforms. This report maps out what PFM progress looks like across countries, regions, and income groups, and then drills down into specific experiences. Based on a detailed tracing of PFM reform progress in a small N sample of countries, it explores the underlying nontechnical drivers and constraints reformers faced, and how these influenced the feasibility and robustness of efforts to strengthen PFM. While not presuming to offer a complete set of answers on how to better approach PFM reforms, the authors aim to provide a stronger empirical basis for some key questions, and to offer some concrete guidance on how reform stakeholders and external supporters can take non-technical drivers into account and better calibrate their approaches to PFM reforms.


The grafting of (functionalized) polystyrene from bulk or surface-functionalized polyolefins via nitroxide mediated polymerization is described. High density polyethylene and a poly(ethylene-co-α-olefin) copolymer (EOC) modified with different functional 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-1-oxyl radical (TEMPO) derivatives were used as macroinitiators for the "grafting from" polymerization of various styrene-based monomers to yield polyolefin-g-polystyrene graft copolymers. The successful grafting of styrene and styrene derivatives was demonstrated by complementary analyses such as infrared (ATR-FTIR) and NMR spectroscopy, size exclusion chromatography, thermogravimetric analysis, and differential scanning calorimetry. Typically, IR spectroscopy of the grafted copolymers showed the bands attributable to the aromatic moieties and the obtained thermograms evidenced a lower degradation temperature for the grafted copolymers compared to that of polyolefin starting materials. In addition, solid state 19F-NMR was chosen to confirm the growth of polystyrene (PS) chains when EOC functionalized with a fluoroalkyl TEMPO was used for NMP. The extent of grafting of PS chains onto the polyolefin backbone was found to depend on the nature of the macroinitiator, especially on the structure and cleavage temperature of alkoxyamine derivatives created by TEMPO functionalization, on its content and on the adopted experimental conditions.


### Contents

#### Viewpoint

Intensive Titan Exploration Begins

P. R. Mahaffy

#### Reports

Cassini Radar Views the Surface of Titan

C. Elachi et al.

Titan's Atmospheric Temperatures, Winds, and Composition

F. M. Flasar et al.

The Cassini UVIS Stellar Probe of the Titan Atmosphere

D. E. Shemansky et al.

[Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer Results from the First Flyby of Titan][1]

J. H. Waite Jr. et al.

Cassini Measurements of Cold Plasma in the Ionosphere of Titan

J.-E. Wahlund et al.

Energetic Neutral Atom Emissions from Titan Interaction with Saturn's Magnetosphere

D. G. Mitchell et al.

[Titan's Magnetic Field Signature During the First Cassini Encounter][2]

H. Backes et al.

T itan, Saturn's largest moon, and Earth are the only two bodies in our solar system with nitrogen-rich atmospheres. Although Earth's atmosphere has evolved partly under the influence of life (and includes carbon dioxide as the main carbon species), Titan's remains more primitive, reducing, and rich in methane, and may resemble that hypothesized for the early Earth. Our first close view of Titan came from Pioneer and the two Voyager spacecraft, which flew by in the late 1970s and early 1980s. These spacecraft provided a taste of Titan's atmosphere and its structure, determined Titan's size and density (a mixture of rock and organic ices), and showed that the moon lacked a significant magnetic field, although it is affected greatly by its orbit in and out of Saturn's magnetic field. Detailed study of Titan, however, has been limited because its atmosphere is so thick that, like those of Venus, Jupiter, and Saturn, it is difficult to see the surface beneath the haze.

Cassini is equipped with a variety of instruments to both sample the haze and reveal the surface beneath it, and observations of Titan were a primary goal of the mission. Cassini also carried and released the Huygens probe, which successfully sampled Titan's atmosphere and landed on its solid surface late last year. The papers in this issue, including a summary by Mahaffy (p. 969), describe results from the first two passes of Cassini by Titan, including through its uppermost atmosphere.

To see through the haze, Cassini carries a radar mapper that with each pass will build up a map of Titan's surface. The initial flyby has already revealed much (see the cover); as discussed by Elachi et al. (p. 970), Titan apparently has a relatively young flat surface with only a few large and degraded impact craters, but with a striking variation in the deposits. Together these features seem to indicate that there has been active resurfacing, likely through some form of ice volcanism.

![Figure][3]

CREDIT: NASA/JET PROPULSION LABORATORY/U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

A variety of other spectrometers on Cassini sampled and viewed Titan's atmosphere, providing new information on its composition and structure and showing some parallels with Earth's atmosphere [see Waite et al. (p. 982), Shemansky et al. (p. 978), and Flasar et al. (p. [975][4])]. Methane is abundant close to the surface, and Cassini has revealed several complex hydrocarbon species higher in the atmosphere. A tantalizing result is that although radiogenic argon is present (probably produced by outgassing of the moon's interior), the other argon isotopes that should have been present in an initial atmosphere are absent.

Cassini also measured the effects of Titan's passage through Saturn's magnetic field [see Wahlund et al. (p. [986][5]), Mitchell et al. (p. 989), and Backes et al. (p. 992)]. It found and passed through a magnetic ionopause in Titan's atmosphere, below which the field strength dropped to zero, confirming Voyager's observation that Titan lacks a magnetic field.

Cassini is planning to revisit Titan more than 40 times during its mission, repeating many of these analyses and mapping different parts of the moon's surface. Together with the Huygens data, these data should help us understand the origin and evolution of Saturn's largest moon and, by analogy, Earth's early history.

 [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1110652
 [2]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1109763
 [3]: pending:yes
 [4]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1111150
 [5]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1109807


Chronic treatment with the β-blocker carvedilol has been shown to reduce established maladaptive left ventricle (LV) hypertrophy and to improve LV function in experimental heart failure. However, the detailed mechanisms by which carvedilol improves LV failure are incompletely understood. We previously showed that carvedilol is a β-arrestin-biased β1-adrenergic receptor ligand, which activates cellular pathways in the heart independent of G protein-mediated second messenger signaling. More recently, we have demonstrated by microRNA (miR) microarray analysis that carvedilol upregulates a subset of mature and pre-mature miRs, but not their primary miR transcripts in mouse hearts. Here, we next sought to identify the effects of carvedilol on LV gene expression on a genome-wide basis. Adult mice were treated with carvedilol or vehicle for 1 wk. RNA was isolated from LV tissue and hybridized for microarray analysis. Gene expression profiling analysis revealed a small group of genes differentially expressed after carvedilol treatment. Further analysis categorized these genes into pathways involved in tight junction, malaria, viral myocarditis, glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis, and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. Genes encoding proteins in the tight junction, malaria, and viral myocarditis pathways were upregulated in the LV by carvedilol, while genes encoding proteins in the glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy pathways were downregulated by carvedilol. These gene expression changes may reflect the molecular mechanisms that underlie the functional benefits of carvedilol therapy.


The subject of this thesis is a labour dispute that took place in 1974-5, when unionised trawler fishermen in Newfoundland struck against fish companies, initially in support of a demand for higher fish prices. More specifically, the thesis deals with the rhetorical behaviour of the president of the union, Richard Cashin, during the course of the strike. The material upon which the study is based is drawn from contemporary press accounts of the strike, from interviews with key personnel involved in the strike and from other documentary and secondary sources. The successive chapters of the thesis introduce the participants in the strike, describe the historical background of unionisation in the province, give a history of the union involved, the NFFAW, recount the events of the strike and the rhetorical battle which accompanied it and, in the final chapter, the material presented in the previous chapter is analysed. The organisation of the thesis is based upon the scheme proposed by Hymes (1972) for the analysis and presentation of the ethnography of communicative behaviour. -- The central problems to which the thesis is addressed are the question of what part the union's publicity campaign played in the achievement of the final settlement of the strike and what implications this bore for Cashin's role as leader of the union. The theoretical framework for use in this thesis was adapted from Paine (1976), in which transactions are seen as communicative events. A novel concept, that of championship, was introduced to describe Cashin's relation to his followers. The thesis concludes that the publicity campaign worked in favour of the union side in the dispute, and that it was a positive factor in delineating the grounds upon which any settlement of the strike could be effected. It was also an important factor in normalising relations between Cashin and his followers during the strike.


Unsaturated zone salt reservoirs are potentially mobilized by increased groundwater recharge as semiarid lands are cultivated. This study explores the amounts of pore water sulfate and fluoride relative to chloride in unsaturated zone profiles, evaluates their sources, estimates mobilization due to past land use change, and assesses the impacts on groundwater quality. Inventories of water‐extractable chloride, sulfate, and fluoride were determined from borehole samples of soils and sediments collected beneath natural ecosystems (N = 4), nonirrigated ("rain‐fed") croplands (N = 18), and irrigated croplands (N = 6) in the southwestern United States and in the Murray Basin, Australia. Natural ecosystems contain generally large sulfate inventories (7800–120,000 kg/ha) and lower fluoride inventories (630–3900 kg/ha) relative to chloride inventories (6600–41,000 kg/ha). Order‐of‐magnitude higher chloride concentrations in precipitation and generally longer accumulation times result in much larger chloride inventories in the Murray Basin than in the southwestern United States. Atmospheric deposition during the current dry interglacial climatic regime accounts for most of the measured sulfate in both U.S. and Australian regions. Fluoride inventories are greater than can be accounted for by atmospheric deposition in most cases, suggesting that fluoride may accumulate across glacial/interglacial climatic cycles. Chemical modeling indicates that fluorite controls fluoride mobility and suggests that water‐extractable fluoride may include some fluoride from mineral dissolution. Increased groundwater drainage/recharge following land use change readily mobilized chloride. Sulfate displacement fronts matched or lagged chloride fronts by up to 4 m. In contrast, fluoride mobilization was minimal in all regions. Understanding linkages between salt inventories, increased recharge, and groundwater quality is important for quantifying impacts of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and is required for remediating salinity problems.


How does competition in firms' product markets influence their behavior in equity markets? Do product market imperfections spread to equity markets? We examine these questions in a noisy rational expectations model in which firms operate under monopolistic competition while their shares trade in perfectly competitive markets. Firms use their monopoly power to pass on shocks to customers, thereby insulating their profits. This encourages stock trading, expedites the capitalization of private information into stock prices and improves the allocation of capital. Several implications are derived and tested.


Complex anaphors are nominal expressions that pick up sentential or longer antecedents referring to propositionally structured referents such as events and states. Concerning their textual function, complex anaphors do not only serve as a means of continuity but also effect the progression of the information flow in text, i.e. they are thematic and rhematic at the same time. The complexation process establishes the pre-mentioned referent as a unified discourse entity. On the basis of natural language corpus data, we show that complex anaphors have a central function in establishing coherence in texts. We distinguish type shifting and non type shifting complexation processes where the former is subject to ontological based constraints. In order to show how ontological features are involved in disambiguation we discuss an example of ambiguous complex anaphora.


Recent European policies on the ban of fishing discards and the closure of open-air landfills are expected to reduce predictable and abundant food resources for generalist seabirds. In order to forecast the consequences of this reduction on seabird breeding investment it is important to understand whether diverse anthropogenic foraging resources act synergistically or not and whether their influence is mediated by density-dependent mechanisms. To assess these effects at large spatio-temporal scale, we measured mean egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in ca. 5,000 three-egg clutches of the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis) from 20 colonies of the Western Mediterranean, located both along European and African coasts. In European gull colonies, egg volume increased with the availability of fishing discards and landfills in the vicinity of the colony. However, the landfill effect was weaker than the effect of fishing discards, probably due to the lower quality of waste as food for gulls. In contrast, none of the anthropogenic food subsidies influenced egg volume in African colonies, likely due to socio-economic differences (i.e. a much lower availability and predictability of both discards and waste food. Finally, results showed that the positive association between fishing discards and open-air landfills on egg volume was mediated by negative density-dependent mechanisms probably related to an increase in competition for food.

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.


Amiiformes and Pycnodontiformes are non-teleostean actinopterygians that were key members of most Mesozoic fish assemblages, appearing often associated throughout their fossil record. Their phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns, however, are strikingly different. For pycnodonts, whose record extends from around 215 to 40 million years ago, up to seven out of 12 palaeobiogeographical events correspond to dispersals from the Tethys Sea. This was their center of radiation and their final refuge in their expanding-contracting distribution pattern. In turn, the distribution of amiiforms (195 million years ago to recent), although also initially associated with the Tethys sea, follows a mostly vicariant pattern; five main vicariant events out of a total of 15 events, which also include dispersal and radiation events, define their palaeobiogeography, in contrast with no vicariant event detected for pycnodonts. Ecologically, both appear closely associated with coastlines and continents, reaching an almost cosmopolitan distribution; they often occur associated in the same localities. This indicates that their dispersal during the same time intervals are not determined by moving plates alone. Data suggest that their taxonomic diversity and ecomorphological disparity may have played an important role in their dissimilar biogeographical patterns. Pycnodontiforms present a higher diversity and disparity, with variable body-fin shape and dentition; amiiforms are less diversified, with rather uniform body shape and dentition, their disparity being, then, quite low. This was a key factor of their different capacities to compete with teleosts, which would dominate fish faunas since the Late Cretaceous on. Therefore, internal factors play a crucial role to explain the historical patterns of distribution in these organisms.


Bellows flexible joints are included in automobile exhaust systems to allow for engine movements and thermal expansion and to reduce vibration transmission. Generally the joint consists of a flexible bellows, an inside liner and an outside braid. In this work the bellows is considered. A straightforward way to model the bellows is to use shell finite elements. Due to the convoluted geometry of the bellows that procedure requires however a high number of elements, meaning that the bellows model would constitute a large part of the model of the exhaust system. For more effective dynamics simulations a beam finite element representation of the bellows has been presented in a prior work. This modelling procedure was implemented in the commercial software I-DEAS and was verified against experimental results available in the literature for single-ply bellows of constant mean radius. This paper suggests adjustments by which this procedure can be extended to model also multi-ply bellows of variable mean radius. Experimental investigations of a double-ply bellows having decreasing mean radius towards its ends are included for verification. The agreement between theoretical and experimental results is very good, implying that the suggested extension of the modelling procedure is valid. It is also shown that the procedure can easily be implemented into other commercial software (in this case ABAQUS). The experimental investigation reveals an intriguing resonance frequency shift at small excitation force levels. Although considered to be of minor significance for the present application of the bellows, a hypothetic qualitative explanation to the observed phenomenon is given.


An annotated list is presented for 81 species of lady beetles (Coccinellidae: Coleoptera) that occur in the state of Iowa, U.S.A., based on literature searches and a review of over 3500 specimens in institutional and private collections. The list includes new state records for Scymnus tenebrosus Mulsant, Diomus debilis (LeConte), Hyperaspis lateralis Mulsant, Hyperaspis deludens Gordon, Epilachna borealis (F.), and Subcoccinella vigintiquatuorpunctata (L.), as well as county records for the non-native species, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas). Collection records are discussed for Nephaspis oculatus (Blatchley), Hyperaspidius militaris (LeConte), Coccinella californica Mannerheim, and S. vigintiquatuorpunctata, which have Iowa records that are disjunct from their larger geographic distributions in North America. I also discuss collection records and the need for additional collecting of coccinellids in Iowa, especially Adalia bipunctata (Schneider), Coccinella transversoguttata richardsoni Brown, and Coccinella novemnotata Herbst, which were once common and widespread but have declined drastically over much of North America, including Iowa.


In this paper, we present an occlusion removal method to enhance reconstructed images of occluded three-dimensional (3D) objects based on pixel depth mapping technique in 3D multi-perspective imaging. Depth mapping is achieved by minimizing the statistical variance of projection image pixels of 3D object points on different perspective images. Then depth map and variance map are utilized to classify elemental image pixels into object or occlusion classes. Based on pixel classification results, a modified reconstruction algorithm is used to reconstruct the object without the effect of occlusion. In the proposed method, the occlusion is unknown and may be arbitrarily placed in front of the scene. Experimental results are presented to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method.


A study has been made on the effects of insect hormones on fluid secretion by the Malpighian tubules of Locusta, and on the Na(^+), K(^+)- ATPase activity in microsomal preparations of the tubules. A diuretic hormone present in extracts of the neurosecretory cells and corpora cardiaca accelerated rates of fluid secretion by in vitro preparations of the tubules but had no effect on ATPase activity. Ecdysone affected neither secretory rates nor enzyme activity whereas Juvenile Hormone had an inhibitory effect on both. Attempts have been made to explain how. J.H. may inhibit Na(^+), K(^+) -ATPase activity. It is possible that J.H. affects the membrane conformation and thus prevents the normal reaction sequence of the ATPase. Ultrastructural studies have shown that the fine structure of the Malpighian tubules varies with development. Invaginations of the basal and apical cell membranes were found to develop with increasing age throughout the 5th stadium. At the same time the numbers of mitochondria in the tubule cells appeared to increase and the mitochondria came to lie in the cytoplasm of the basal infolds. Just prior to the larval-adult moult the invaginations of both membranes decreased and mitochondria were rarely found amongst the basal infolds. Associated with these ultrastructural changes, functional changes are also reported. Na(^+) , K(^+)-ATPase activity was low at the beginning and. end of the 5th stadium, times when there was least invagination of the plasma membrane. At the same times animal relative water content was high, suggesting lower rates of secretion. Both ouabain and ethacrynic acid were found to inhibit fluid secretion by, an. d Na(^+), K(^+)-ATPase, in microsomal preparations of the Malpighian tubules. Ouabain was the more effective inhibitor of enzyme activity ( pI(_50) = 5.8 as compared with ethacrynic acid pI(_50) = 2.5).


A voluntary system of taxation strengthens a government's legitimacy both literally and symbolically. By providing the government with revenues it needs to perform the functions the people expect, taxes ensure the populace's continuing support of the government. Symbolically, the act of paying taxes strengthens legitimacy by serving simultaneously as a tangible reminder of governmental authority and a symbol of loyalty to that government. Anti-tax rhetoric, in contrast, can threaten legitimacy at both an actual and symbolic level. Symbolically, by serving as a focal point for antigovernment sentiment and general political discontents, it can unify and encourage dissent from, dissatisfaction with, and distrust of government. From a practical standpoint, successful anti-tax rhetoric increases non-compliance with tax laws that in turn can endanger the existence of the state by strangling its means of support. In the United States anti-tax rhetoric poses a particularly serious threat to legitimacy because anti-tax sentiments, along with anti-government sentiments generally, are an intrinsic aspect of American patriotism and national character. From the Revolutionary War's Boston Tea Party to recent re-enactments of that famous event by dumping the Internal Revenue Code into the Boston harbor, Americans have demonstrated their patriotism and commitment to liberty through resistance - often violent resistance - to taxes. Is the current anti-tax rhetoric a real challenge to the government's legitimacy or a safety valve through which people can vent their discontents? This Article analyzes the relationship between tax rhetoric and the production and maintenance of legitimacy in the United States. It begins with an examination of legitimacy and the function of rhetoric, concentrating on the relationship of the American conception of sovereignty to both the right of revolution and to taxation. It next discusses a widely perceived general "crisis" in legitimacy before examining the current wave of tax protests. The Article concludes that American anti-tax rhetoric - like the power to tax itself - has both positive and negative aspects. On the positive side, it represents core American beliefs in freedom, liberty, the right to participate in government, and the right to freedom of speech, assembly and protest, all of which are captured in the patriotic phrase "no taxation without representation." Anti-tax rhetoric, therefore, can buttress the government's legitimacy by strengthening these aspects of American democracy. The negative side of the rhetoric, however, reinforces deeply rooted, often virulent, anti-tax, anti-government sentiments that can challenge the legitimacy of the tax itself and the government that imposes it. In light of this duality, the Article suggests that politicians substitute meaningful debate for their current (often inflammatory) sound bites in order to maintain the delicate balance between healthy and self-destructive tax rhetoric.


Abstract The crustal seismic velocity model (based on receiver functions) of Ellesmere Island and the structural geological cross-section of Ellesmere Island, both documented and discussed elsewhere in this volume, are here integrated into a crustal-scale transect crossing all the main tectonic domains. The velocity model satisfies much of the observed gravity field, but implies minor modifications with potentially important implications for characterizing the lower crust over the transect. The crust of the Pearya Terrane includes a high-velocity and high-density lower crustal body, suggested to represent a mafic underplate linked to the emplacement of the High Arctic Large Igneous Province. A similar body also lies directly beneath the Hazen Plateau, but this is more likely to be inherited from earlier tectonic stages than to be linked to the High Arctic Large Igneous Province. A large-scale basement-involving thrust, possibly linked to a deep detachment of Ellesmerian age, lies immediately south of the Pearya Terrane and forms the northern backdrop to a crustal-scale pop-up structure that accommodates Eurekan-aged shortening in northern Ellesmere Island. The thickest crust and deepest Moho along the transect are below the Central Ellesmerian fold belt, where the Moho is flexured downwards to the north to a depth of about 48 km beneath the load of the structurally thickened supracrustal strata of the fold belt.


We live in a world that is increasingly characterised as full of risk, danger and threat. Every day a new social issue emerges to assail our sensibilities and consciences. Drawing on the popular Economic Social and Research Council (ESRC) seminar series, this book examines these social issues and anxieties, and the solutions to them, through the concept of moral panic. With a commentary by Charles Critcher and contributions from both well-known and up-and-coming researchers and practitioners, this is a stimulating and innovative overview of moral panic ideas, which will be an essential resource.


The study of the relationship between crime and tourism has attracted the attention of scholars over time. Different aspects have been studied on the topic such as the link between these two concepts in different destinations, or the effects of fear of crime on tourist behaviour; furthermore a classification of the relationship between crime and tourism has been developed (Ryan, 1993; Dimanche and Lepetic, 1999; Kathrada, Burger and Dohnal, 1999; Pizam, 1999; Levantis and Gani, 2000; Mawby, Brunt and Hambly, 2000; Alleyne and Boxill, 2003; Michalko, 2003; Tynon and Chavez, 2006).
Although the study of this relationship is not new, it must be pointed out that in literature nobody has specifically taken into account the relationship between organised crime and tourism. Just Pizam and Mansfeld (2006) explicitly considered organised crime with reference to crimes committed against businesses; thus the relationship between organised crime and tourists' perception is completely missing from literature.
In order to bridge this gap, this research aims to understand whether tourists' perceptions towards organised crime influence their travel behaviour. In order to do so this research is focused on the Italian organised crime. In particular, the present work investigates the influence that tourists' perceptions have on: 1) the choice of visiting or not the South of Italy; 2) the activities carried out or the destinations visited during the travel; 3) the behaviours following the visit in terms of return to the destination; recommendation of the destination to relatives and friends; posting reviews on social media; deepening the personal knowledge on topics related to the Italian organised crime.


The Thirteenth Amendment abolishes the institution of slavery rather than freeing individual slaves. Yet it quickly came to stand for little more than granting universal rights to make labor contracts and to leave service. This article develops a distinction between abolishing an institution and reclassifying individuals within it. Drawing on the comparative history of slavery, it shows that the institution of slavery has generally included mechanisms for the manumission of slaves and their passage into a liminal status combining self-ownership with social subordination and relative isolation. A critical account of the Antelope litigation shows that proponents of mass manumission still often assumed that ex-slaves would need to be governed by whites. A discussion of manumission, self-purchase and labor contracting in the antebellum U.S. argues that although these mechanisms were less common than in other slave societies, they were nevertheless important until the decades immediately preceding the Civil War. The article concludes that the narrow interpretation of the Thirteenth Amendment that prevailed merely conferred on African Americans the liminal status typically occupied by manumittees in a slave society. The institution of slavery arguably survived in the form of a racially defined subordinate status, reducing the autonomy and income potential of all African-Americans.


Systemic banking crises often continue into recessions with large output losses. Governments and central banks intervene to preserve the key functions of the financial system and to mitigate the adverse impact of financial distress on economic growth. This thesis investigates how effective intervention measures are. Do they reduce the duration of recessions? And more specifically, what are the effects of bank recapitalizations? In addition, it analyzes the determinants of forbearance, a practice of extending or renewing loans to borrowers in distress, typical for banking crises. Finally, it evaluates the robustness of stress tests and other measures of bank vulnerability.


Anthropologists often have interesting and valuable data that remains 'hidden' because it does not fit easily into conventional academic publishing formats. This article suggests that it is worthwhile to make use of this hidden data for the benefit of other researchers and the study communities. To illustrate, the article describes initial efforts to create an online database of traditional weather prediction indicators derived from observations of the ecosystem. The database was started with descriptions of more than a thousand prediction indicators used in Northeast Brazil, which were collected as part of a survey of farmers and 'rain prophets'. It is argued that such a database is important not only as part of the anthropological record, but also for the preservation of cultural heritage, and as a baseline for studies of environmental change. Some of the theoretical, practical, and ethical issues that have emerged in developing the database include: determining how much contextual information to include, obtaining translations, recruiting contributors, and properly acknowledging intellectual property. While there seems to be a great deal of enthusiasm for the idea from various sectors within and outside of academia, difficulties in securing funding for this interdisciplinary project and establishing a group of collaborators have so far presented significant obstacles. Journal of Ecological Anthropology 82 Vol. 15 no. 1 2011-2012


A 75-year-old male presented with productive cough; unintentional weight loss and constitutional symptoms since 1 month and was diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis. He was then started on appropriate antitubercular therapy. During his hospitalization, he developed acute abdominal pain. Laboratory testing was consistent with acute adrenal insufficiency and was diagnosed to be acute adrenal insufficiency secondary to unilateral hemorrhage on a computerized tomography scan. He was treated with corticosteroids and had recovery of adrenal function. Through this case, we wish to illustrate the importance of recognizing early this rare but potentially life threatening complication of pulmonary tuberculosis. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.4021/jmc850w


This guide provides rural residents with information about cooperative development feasibility studies. It defines the feasibility study and discusses their necessity and limitations. First steps in feasibility study development are described and key actions, including important components of a comprehensive study, are detailed. Also offered are criteria for selecting and working with consultants, information for developing assumptions, and study assessment factors.


Previous research suggests that human reaction to risky opportunities reflects two contradicting biases: "loss aversion", and "limited level of reasoning" that leads to overconfidence. Rejection of attractive gambles is explained by loss aversion, while counterproductive risk seeking is attributed to limited level of reasoning. The current research highlights a shortcoming of this popular (but often implicit) "contradicting biases" assertion. Studies of "negative-sum betting games" reveal high rate of counterproductive betting even when limited level of reasoning and loss aversion imply no betting. The results reflect two reasons for the high betting rate: initial tendency to participate and slow learning. Under certain conditions, the observed betting rate was higher than the rate predicted under random choice even after 250 trials with immediate feedback. These results can be captured with a model that assumes a tendency to select strategies that have led to good outcomes in a small set of similar past experiences, and allows for an initial framing effect.


Implementing Virtual Design and Constructionusing BIMoutlines the team structure, software and production ecosystem needed for an effective Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) process through current real world case studies of projects both in development and under construction. It provides the reader with a better understanding of the successful implementation of VDC and Building Information Modeling (BIM), and the benefits to the project team throughout the design and construction process. For readers already familiar with VDC, the book will provide invaluable examples of best practices and real world solutions. Richly illustrated in color with actual VDC documentation, visualizations, and statistics, the reader is shown the real processes undertaken and outputs generated when working on high profile building information models. Online animations, interviews with practitioners, and downloadable templates, forms and files make this an interactive and highly engaging way to learn a crucial set of skills. While keeping up with current industry practice is a minimum requirement, this book goes further by helping you prepare for the next level of virtual design and construction. This is essential reading for project managers, construction managers, architects, design managers, and anybody with a role in BIM or virtual construction.


Abstract There is not yet a precise classification of or terminology for ecostratigraphic boundaries. SHE analysis for biozone identification (SHEBI) objectively places boundaries between abundance biozones (ABs). Alpha diversity ( = SE  =  eH, where H is the information function) measures the community diversity within an AB in units of effective species, whereas the dimensionless β diversity ( =  SE2/SE1, where SE1 and SE2 are the α diversities of successive ABs) quantifies the difference in α diversity between successive ABs. Three categories of AB boundary are recognized depending on the value of β. In Type –1β, the α diversity of the younger AB is significantly less than that of the older. In Type 0β, SE2 ≈ SE1, while in Type +1β, the α diversity of the younger AB is significantly greater than in the older. Benthonic foraminifera were sampled from the ∼124-m-thick Pleistocene strata of DSDP Hole 148 (eastern Caribbean Sea). SHEBI indicated 18 ABs; of the 17 AB boundaries, seven were Type –1β, two were Type 0β, and eight, Type +1β. The direction of inflection of the graph of lnE versus lnN did not indicate AB boundary type. Although the Pleistocene was characterized by repeated alternations between glacial and interglacial conditions, there was no regular alternation of Type –1β and +1β AB boundaries. Complementarity (i.e., species level distinctiveness of successive ABs) was measured using a percentage similarity index, CP. Differing complimentarities show that boundaries between ABs varied with respect to permeability to species, while beta diversities and CP were uncorrelated.


Few performances in Australian theatre history are more legendary than the Mercury Theatre's production of The Imaginary Invalid at O'Brien's Glass Factory in Sydney on Wednesday, 18 August 1948. During the factory's lunch break, a cast led by a young Peter Finch performed Moliere's farce on the floor of a section of the joiner shop in front of an audience of around 450 people, including Sir Laurence Olivier and his wife, Vivien Leigh. The performance thrilled Olivier so greatly that he invited Finch to London, leading to Finch's becoming an international star - and Leigh's lover. The story of the O'Brien's Glass Factory performance has been re-told in countless biographies of Finch, Olivier and Leigh, not to mention a miniseries and a play.' Even today it remains one of the most famous lunch-time theatre performances in history. However, relatively little is known of other work - if any - accomplished by the Mercury. The Mercury Theatre Company only existed for a short while: a 'Peter Finch' phase from 1946 until 1948, when Finch left for England, and a 'St James Hall' phase, where the company worked from 1952 until 1953. However, during its brief lifetime, the Mercury managed to produce an impressive number of productions, give work to some of Australia's leading actors, and help launch the career of one of Australia's most famous acting exports. Although the Mercury ultimately collapsed, its story is worth remembering because of what it achieved, what it failed to achieve, and the contribution it made to Australian theatre history. The guiding power of the Mercury all through its existence was not Peter Finch, but a German immigrant called 'Sydney' John Kay. Finch always described Kay as 'the real soul and force behind the Mercury Theatre ... He infected me with his burning passion for drama; his titanic energy was a contagion.'2 Kay was born in Germany in 1904, the son of a Peruvian Jew. He studied music and engineering at Leipzig, where he also began working as an assistant stage manager in various theatres. In 1929 he gave up engineering in favour of music and joined a musical group named the 'Weintraubs Syncopators', with whom Kay toured the world. 'The Beatles of the thirties we were', reminisced Kay later. 'Everything we want, we have. We go to a hotel room, "Where's the grand piano?" we ask. They bring grand piano.'3 The Syncopators were touring Australia when World War Il broke out, and Kay was interned as an enemy alien. On his release, he decided to stay in Australia and went to work in radio, becoming a composer and musical arranger. In 1944 he established Sydney John Kay Theatrical Enterprises, which ran a theatre for children at Assembly Hall in Margaret Street. Allegedly the first of its kind in Australia, the theatre staged adaptations of such stories as The Emperor's New Clothes and The Reluctant Dragon, until March 1945, when it closed down due to an infantile paralysis epidemic.4 Kay's radio work saw him come into contact with Peter Finch, who by 1946 was probably the leading radio actor in the country. The two of them discovered a common dissatisfaction with the state of Australian theatre at the time, and a mutual desire to do something about it. Finch: We were wild-eyed with fanaticism, desperate that something be done to drag the Australian theatre from the dreary doldrums of The Desert Song and Maid of the Mountains where it had been wallowing for decades; to do something better than the meretricious slickness of the radio serials.5 Theatre in post-World War II Sydney tended to be one of three things: J.C. Williamsons Ltd, the operators who had a near-monopoly on commercial theatre in Australia; 'little' theatre, professionally managed theatres which used amateur actors, such as the Independent; or variety shows, such as the Tivoli. Since variety and J.C. Williamsons toured around the country, no one could afford to sign for one of their productions without risking being replaced in any radio work they were also doing. …


Title of Dissertation: OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS WITH CONTRAFLOW Hayssam Hicham El-Sbayti, Ph.D. 2008 Dissertation Directed by: Professor Hani S. Mahmassani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Congestion due to evacuations can be catastrophic and life threatening. The sudden increase in demand will result in excessive loads on roads not typically designed to handle them, leading to network breakdown at the worst possible time. Moreover, since building new roads is infeasible, efficient utilization of the available network resources during disasters becomes one of the few options available to facilitate the movement of residents to safety. One option is to address the demand side of the problem, through demand scheduling. By scheduling the evacuation demand over a longer period, the congestion is staved off and network degradation is delayed. Advising traffic on when to evacuate, where to evacuate, and which route to take has the potential to improve evacuation times, especially in no-notice emergency conditions. Another option is to address the supply side of the problem, through network re-design. By reversing the direction of wisely selected lanes in a process known as contraflow, a temporary increase in the operational capacity is achieved without any major infrastructure changes. Both options, if planned correctly, have the potential to greatly ease network degradation and allow evacuees to reach safety sooner. Therefore, the ability to determine the joint optimal demand scheduling and network contraflow policies is of critical nature to the success of any evacuation plan. The objective of this study is to develop a simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment model that minimizes network clearance time at a minimum cost to the travelers by jointly considering demand scheduling and contraflow strategies. OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS WITH CONTRAFLOW


Background The view that severe personality disorder (SPD) is untreatable derives from poor-quality studies of treatment outcome which use indirect measures of SPD pathology. This study evaluates the impact of psychotherapeutic in-patient treatment on core personality disorder symptoms. Method 137 SPD patients completed the Borderline Syndrome Index (BSI) on referral and one year post-treatment ('admitted', n=70) or one year post-referral ('non-admitted', n=67); 22 of the non-admitted group were refused extra-contractual referral funding for their treatment. Results There was a significantly greater reduction in BSI scores in the treated than in the non-admitted group. Changes in BSI scores were significantly positively correlated with length of treatment. Assessment of the reliability and clinical significance of changes in individual subjects showed that the magnitude of this change was reliable and clinically significant in 42.9% of the admitted sample, compared with only 17.9% of the non-admitted sample (18.2% of the unfunded group) Conclusions Specialist in-patient treatment is effective in reducing core SPD psychopathology.


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In geomorphological terms, the sandy shoreline of a bay downcoast of a harbor may be stable or in static equilibrium, or could be in dynamic condition, if sediment is still being supplied from upcoast or from downcoast to form a salient predicted by a static bay shape equation. Should commercial expansion demand a larger port, the general solution is to run a breakwater from the headland or existing structure. This has the potential to create a new static equilibrium beach, often with accretion in the lee which is at the expense of beach erosion downcoast. It is strongly recommended that geomorphic approach be incorporated to stabilize downcoast beaches early in the planning stage of a harbor, or as remedial measures. By creating bay beaches in static equilibrium, the potential beach erosion downcoast of a harbor will be kept to a minimum or may be prevented completely.


Forecast targeting is an innovation in central banking that represents an important step toward more rule-based policymaking, even if it is not an attempt to follow a policy rule of any of the types that have received primary attention in the theoretical literature on optimal monetary policy. This paper discusses the extent to which forecast targeting can be considered an example of a policy rule, and the conditions under which it would represent a desirable rule, with a view to suggesting improvements in the approaches currently used by forecast-targeting central banks. Particular attention is given to the intertemporal consistency of forecast-targeting procedures, the assumptions about future policy that should be used in constructing the forecasts used in such procedures, the horizon with which the target criterion should be concerned, the relevance of forecasts other than the inflation forecast, and the degree of robustness of a desirable target criterion for monetary policy to changing circumstances.


Legal scholars often fail to distinguish descriptive claims about what the law is from normative claims about what it ought to be. The distinction couldn't be more important, yet scholars frequently mix it up, leading them to mistake legal authority for moral authority, treat current law as a justification for itself, and generally use rhetorical strategies more appropriate for legal practice than scholarship. As a result, scholars sometimes talk past each other, generating not scholarship but scholarmush.

In recent years, legal scholarship has been criticized as too theoretical. When it comes to normative legal scholarship, however, the criticism is off the mark. We need more careful attention to theory, otherwise we're left with what we have too much of now: claims with no solid normative grounding that amount to little more than opinions. We have no shortage of opinions, and simply producing more opinions will not make scholarship more practical.

Of course, centuries-old disputes in jurisprudence have struggled to untangle the precise relationship between law and morality, but my message is simple: Scholars must be more clear, transparent, and rigorous about which of their claims are descriptive and which are normative (and what sort of normativity is at issue). By being more precise, we can hope to stop talking past each other and develop more objective criteria for evaluating both scholarship and public policy more generally.


The practical issues that arise due to the interaction between three principal players in any quantitative strategy—namely, the alpha model, the risk model, and the constraints—are collectively referred to as factor alignment problems (FAPs). Examples of FAPs include risk-underestimation of optimized portfolios, undesirable exposure to factors with hidden and unaccounted systematic risk, consistent failure in achieving ex ante performance targets, and inability to harvest highquality alphas into an above-average information ratio (IR). This article concerns an empirical illustration of various facets of FAPs using the U.S. Expected Return (USER) model. Unlike previous studies on FAP that are either based on simulated returns or a black-box expected return model, we leverage the detailed knowledge of the USER model to create an insightful narrative. We show that optimal portfolios constructed using the USER model without taking into account the misalignment issues betray typical symptoms of FAPs and have exposure to certain hidden systematic risk factors that are not accounted for during portfolio construction. We trace the origins of these latent systematic risk factors to the constituent factors of the USER model and the turnover constraint. Finally, we leverage our understanding of the alignment issues to propose an alternative portfolio construction methodology that directly addresses FAPs. Using the proposed methodology not only gives unbiased risk forecasts, but also improves ex post performance in a statistically significant manner.


The firmly lodged yet rapidly accelerating phenomenon of international law's "fragmentation" presents the international legal system with what looks like a multilayered existential threat. Theoretically, how can we conceive of international law as a unitary system if its rules are becoming progressively frayed and pixilated to the point of incoherence? Doctrinally, what is "the law" if different, purportedly authoritative, bodies interpret it so differently? And practically, how are actors increasingly subject to the ever-expanding universe of international law supposed to behave when the law itself is so splintered that it may point them in many, perhaps contradictory, directions at once?The prevailing view so far among international law scholars, institutions, and decision-makers is to "abandon every hope" of a coherent, unitary legal system and instead settle for managing (as opposed to resolving) conflicting rules and interpretations thereof through conflict of laws methodologies.This Article fights against that view; that is, it fights for the international legal system's coherence. The Article first argues that the conflict of laws view promises only to entrench the evils supposedly spawned by fragmentation that threaten to take down the system; namely, compromises in core justice principles of equality (or the ideal that like cases be treated alike) and predictability of the law. The Article next draws from systems theory and its fulcrum concept of autopoiesis to defend international law as a unitary system striving for its own survival. And it argues that, rather than posing an existential threat, fragmentation may paradoxically be a species of growing pain in the system's long-term maturation. In this connection, the Article proposes two methodological tools for decision-makers seeking to advance the project of a unitary international legal system: a presumption of coherence and a presumption of catholicity. In combination, these tools aim to promote legal coherence and correctness without the compromises in justice that invariably attend true conflict of laws disputes — compromises that conflict of laws methods institutionalize but that the Article's coherence methods seek to avoid.The result is to answer the threat posed by fragmentation with a novel alternative account of how fragmentation may: (i) fit into international law's long-term evolution as an ultimately coherent and robust system; (ii) eventually, if counterintutively, lead to broader and deeper harmonization of the law regulating international disputes, and; (iii) in turn, furnish more predictable and acceptable rules for actors involved in those disputes. Indeed, the Article argues that its theory not only provides an alternative description of fragmentation, but also that its descriptive account leads to a more just international legal system.


A recent paper by Liang and Singer showed that haloacetic acid (HAA) precursors were removed by coagulation to a greater degree than trihalomethane (THM) precursors. Furthermore, they showed that coagulation generally removed more trihaloacetic acid precursors than THM precursors but removed dihaloacetic acid precursors and THM precursors to a similar degree. The objectives of this current study were to compare the findings by Liang and Singer to those of three other investigations conducted in the senior author's laboratory to demonstrate the extent to which coagulation removes THM and HAA precursors, and to contrast the removal of dihaloacetic acid and trihaloacetic precursors by coagulation. These other studies were conducted on seventeen other waters from across the US.


This research study focused on investigating the use of 5Es instructional model by physics teachers and how the model impacts the learning process of the basic concepts of electromagnetic waves in physics. In this study, six advanced-level physics teachers in four secondary schools within the Rwamagana district in Rwanda were purposively selected to participate. To collect data, 48 classroom observations were conducted, and data collected from classroom observation on the lesson delivery for all six teachers were analyzed through descriptive statistics. Before the training, the overall scores of observed lessons were low (M=2.07; SD=0.68 out of 5) corresponding to 40.1% across all the 11 statements of classroom observation tool used to assess secondary schools STEM teachers ' ability to plan and conduct teaching based on 5Es instructional model. After the training on 5Es instructional model, a significant improvement for all teachers in lesson preparation and its delivery was achieved. The high mean scores, M=4.79 out of 5 scorerates (95%) with low standard deviation, SD=0.40 across all the 11 statements of similar classroom observation tool were obtained. The results after the training on the model indicated good performance for all teachers in terms of integrating exciting activities, discrepant events, relevant visualization guide, boosting learners ' confidence to express their ideas in the teaching process, and using constructive scenarios that helped the learners to relate what they learned to real-life situations. Therefore, the use of the 5Es instructional model was found effective and recommended as a useful teaching approach for teachers. and post their answers for sharing with the rest of the class. Finally, the lesson will be ended by an evaluation by carrying out a short quiz and being given homework for further study.


CPAs who do financial planning are frequently asked to help with retirement planning. The technical aspects of retirement planning are fairly straightforward. However, the human side of the problem must also be considered. Sid Mittra, PhD, CFP, professor of finance at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan, explores some of the key questions planners must ask in helping clients develop an effective retirement plan that realistically meets their future needs. Planning for any financial goal generally means finding answers to key questions. These answers form the basis for assembling the resources necessary to meet that goal. In planning for retirement, here are some questions that must be answered to ensure the plan being developed will adequately meet all of the retiree's needs: * How much income will be needed at retirement? * What rate of inflation should be used in projecting income and expenses? * How much retirement income is expected? * How long should retirement income continue? * Will the family be able to meet any retirement income shortfall? While these are difficult questions, they must be answered responsibly if the client is to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Here's a retirement budget for a hypothetical family. John and Betty Burr have been married for 22 years and have two grown children. Betty is a corporate executive and John is a dental technician. Both participate in corporate retirement plans. Betty is 45 and John is 43. They plan to retire in 20 years. RETIREMENT EXPENITURE ANALYSIS The Burrs'current expenditures are shown in exhibit 1, page 1?A. The planner's task is to estimate expected expenses during retirement. There are no hard and fast rules for estimating retirement expenses. The accepted rule of thumb is that retirees will spend 70 to 80% of their preretirement expenditure level. This rule may be too rigid and often is misleading because it does not recognize the differences between various categories of expenditures and differences between anticipated postretirement lifestyles. A better approach to estimating retirement expenditures is to divide fixed and flexible expenditures into several key categories and ask clients to estimate expenses in each category. This approach provides them with an opportunity to fine-tune their retirement income estimates. Exhibit 1 reveals the Burrs' plan to continue making mortgage payments after retirement; consequently, their housing expenditures remain virtually unchanged. Another area of interest is entertainment expenditures. Some families may wish to drastically reduce entertainment expenses after retirement, while others may plan to spend a great deal more traveling or developing other expensive hobbies. After retirement, the Burrs expect to spend a total of $85,100 per year, which is approximately 50% of their current expenditures. RETIREMENT INCOME The Burrs expect to receive annual income of $60, 000 from corporate and noncorporate retirement plans and Social Security. Social Security $10,200 Pension 32,400 401(k) Plan 9,200 IRA 8,200 TOTAL $60,000 Social Security benefits can be calculated with the help of a Social Security pamphlet called Estimating Your Social Security Retirement Check. Or, for people age 61 or older, the Social Security Administration will provide an estimate. Employee benefits departments can estimate income from pension, profit sharing and 401(k) plans. Income from IRA and Keogh plans can be calculated by projecting the value of each plan at retirement and using annuity tables to estimate the amount of lifetime income such a sum will provide. At retirement, the Burrs expect to have annual living expenses of $85,100, but income from retirement plans and Social Security is expected to be only $60,000. …


Most research on decision making has focused on how human or animal decision makers choose between two or more options, posed in advance by the researchers. The mechanisms by which options are generated for most decisions, however, are not well understood. Models of sequential search have examined the trade-off between continued exploration and choosing one's current best option, but still cannot explain the processes by which new options are generated. We argue that understanding the origins of options is a crucial but untapped area for decision making research. We explore a number of factors which influence the generation of options, which fall broadly into two categories: psycho-biological and socio-cultural. The former category includes factors such as perceptual biases and associative memory networks. The latter category relies on the incredible human capacity for culture and social learning, which doubtless shape not only our choices but the options available for choice. Our intention is to start a discussion that brings us closer toward understanding the origins of options.


Objective The risk of cardiovascular events in patients with RA is disproportionately heightened as a result of systemic inflammation. The relative effect of autoimmune-associated citrullination on the structure and thrombotic potential of fibrin(ogen) remains unknown. We therefore compared indices of vascular function, inflammation, coagulation and fibrin clot composition in RA patients with healthy controls and evaluated inter-parameter relationships. Methods Blood samples were collected from 30 RA patients and 25 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers. Levels of SAA, CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 was measured using a sandwich immunoassay. Whole blood coagulation was assessed using Thromboelastography. Fibrin clot networks and fiber structure was investigated using Scanning Electron Microscopy. The detection and quantification of citrullination in formed fibrin clots were performed using a fluorescently labeled Citrulline monoclonal antibody with Confocal Microscopy. Results Concentrations of SAA, CRP and ICAM-1 were significantly elevated in RA patients compared to controls. TEG parameters relating to coagulation initiation (R and K), rate of fibrin cross-linking (α-Angle), and time to reach maximum thrombus generation (TMRTG) were attenuated in RA patients. Parameters relating to clot strength (MA, MRTG, TGG) did not statistically differ between RA and controls. Logistic regression modelling revealed stronger association between acute phase reactants (CRP, SAA) with TEG parameters than endothelial function markers. Microscopic analysis revealed denser networks of thicker fibrin fibers in RA patients compared to controls [median (interquartile range) 214 (170-285) vs 120 (100-144) nm respectively, p<0.0001, Odds ratio=22.7). Detection of multiple citrullinated regions within fibrin clot structures in RA patients, which was less prevalent in control samples (p<0.05, OR=2.2). Conclusion Patients with active RA display a coagulation profile that is dissimilar to general findings associated with other inflammatory conditions. The alteration of protein structures by autoimmune linked citrullination could play a role in determining the structure of fibrin and the potential of conferring a heightened thrombotic risk in RA patients.


Have you ever wondered why most newspapers are so large? Or why management consultants work such long hours? Or why hotels still insist on having check-in desks? Ask anyone in these industries, and their answer will be the same: "That's the way we've always done it."

"Best practices" may be widespread, but that doesn't mean they're effective. In many instances the opposite is true: best practices can be outdated, harmful, and a hindrance to innovation. These bad practices are all too common in organizations, and managers and executives can be blind to their pernicious effects. Since they've worked in the past, or have been adopted with success by other firms, their purpose or effectiveness is rarely questioned. As a consequence, these practices spread and persist.

In Breaking Bad Habits, Freek Vermeulen, a strategist with a keen eye for the absurd, offers the tools to identify these practices and rid them from your organization. And, most of all, he presents a compelling case for how eliminating popular but outworn ideas, processes, and strategies can create new opportunities for innovation and growth.

Brimming with examples of norm-defying organizations in an eclectic range of industries--including IVF clinics, hotels, newspapers, and a famous London theater--Breaking Bad Habits will make you rethink your long-held beliefs about industry norms while encouraging you to reinvigorate your business by breaking out of the status quo.


Laser Assisted Fiber Placement (LAFP) is an additive manufacturing technique for thermoplastic composites, with the potential for in-situ consolidation. The achieved consolidation quality, however, is lower than obtained with conventional thermoplastic production techniques. One of the problems is the high interlaminar void content. Formation of interlaminar voids is related to intimate contact development, which is facilitated by a smooth tape surface. However, earlier experiments have shown that the tape might deconsolidate during the heating phase prior to the nip-point. As a result the roughness of the, initially smooth tape, might increase. Proper process modeling is only possible if this deconsolidation is taken into account. An elaborate investigation of the deconsolidation behavior is required. For this purpose an automated image analysis method was developed to characterize consolidation state of pre-preg tapes in terms of fiber, matrix and void distributions and surface roughness. This method enables statistical data collection, by automated analysis of a high number of microscopy images. Tapes were placed with reduced pressure, to capture the state of the tape before entering the nip-point. The consolidation state of the tape after the heating phase is characterized by an increased void content and, more im- portantly, an rough outer surface. The thickness of the rough outer layer of the tape increases with reducing consolidation quality. This quantitative characterization of the surface can be used in more accurate intimate contact development modeling.


OBJECTIVE Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs) are rare soft-tissue sarcomas. Resection is the mainstay of treatment and the most important prognostic factor. However, complete resection of spinal MPNSTs with tumor-free margins is challenging due to the likelihood of residual tumor cells. The objective of this study was to describe whether the type of Enneking resection in the management of spinal MPNSTs had an effect on local recurrence and survival. METHODS The AOSpine Knowledge Forum Tumor developed a multicenter database that includes demographic, diagnostic, therapeutic, local recurrence, and survival data on patients with primary spinal column tumors. Patients who had undergone surgery for a primary spinal MPNST were included and were analyzed in 2 groups: 1) those undergoing Enneking appropriate (EA) resections and 2) those undergoing Enneking inappropriate (EI) resections. EA surgery was performed if there was histopathological evidence of an intact tumor pseudocapsule and at least a marginal resection on a vital structure. EI surgery was performed if there was an intentional or inadvertent transgression of the margin. RESULTS Between 1993 and 2012, 29 primary spine MPNSTs were identified in 12 (41%) females and 17 (59%) males with a mean age at diagnosis of 40 ± 17 years (range 5-74 years). The median patient follow-up was 1.3 years (range 42 days to 11.2 years). In total, 14 (48%) patients died and 14 (48%) patients suffered a local recurrence, 10 (71%) of whom died. Within 2 years after surgery, the median survival and local recurrence were not achieved. Data about Enneking appropriateness of surgery were available for 27 patients; 9 (33%) underwent an EA procedure and 18 (67%) underwent an EI procedure. Enneking appropriateness did not have a significant influence on local recurrence or survival. Twenty-two patients underwent adjuvant treatment with combined chemo- and radiotherapy (n = 7), chemotherapy alone (n = 3), or radiotherapy alone (n = 12). Adjuvant therapy had no significant influence on recurrence or survival. CONCLUSIONS The rates of recurrence and survival were similar for spinal MPNSTs regardless of whether patients had an EA or EI resection or received adjuvant therapy. Other factors such as variability of pathologist interpretation, PET CT correlation, or neurofibromatosis Type 1 status may play a role in patient outcome. Nonetheless, MPNSTs should still be treated as sarcomas until further evidence is known. The authors recommend an individualized approach with careful multidisciplinary decision making, and the patient should be informed about the morbidity of en bloc surgery when considering MPNST resection.


Changing marriage practices and a continuing decline in marriage rates are generating tensions in rural South Africa and prompting innovations in the character of women's rights to land. Empirical evidence of changing practices in relation to land access and marriage in Msinga, a conservative area in KwaZulu-Natal, is presented. Such processes have been characterised in recent scholarship in terms of 'living customary law', or 'living law' but this concept can obscure the underlying social dynamics that produce discrepancies between rules, practices and emergent social realities. An alternative model with greater explanatory power is Moore's analytical framework for understanding 'law as process', suggesting attention to processes of regularisation and situational adjustment, within a fundamental condition of indeterminacy. This framework is utilised to help make sense of data from Msinga on marriage practices and women's access to land, and to draw some lessons for policy.


Abstract Objective Many drugs in current practice require additional safety labels in order to prevent potential risks to the major organ system. Psychotropic agent clozapine has been reported to produce myocarditis and other cardiac complications on repeated use. Our study aimed to establish the role of clozapine in vascular damage associated with nitric oxide metabolism. Method Isolated aortic strips incubated with clozapine at different dose levels were estimated for nitrite release and antioxidant systems such as glutathione and catalase. Vascular integrity assessment was performed by recording the acetylcholine induced relaxation of phenyephrine pre-contracted aorta. Result From our study, it was found that clozapine depletes the nitric oxide level in the endothelium and enhance the oxidative stress. The aorta fails to relax completely after the addition of acetylcholine indicates the deranged eNOS signaling in the endothelium. Conclusion From the experimental findings, it was concluded that clozapine could depress the eNOS regulation and thereby perhaps initiates cardiovascular complications through subsequent vascular events


Halpern et al (2012 An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean Nature 488 11397) propose a detailed measure of the state of the human-ocean system against ten societal goals. They devote less attention to the normative foundation of the index, which is crucial for assessing the overall health of the human-ocean system, notably when it comes to aggregation of potentially conflicting goals. Social choice theory provides several possible functional forms for assessing the compound change in various goals. The one chosen by Halpern et al, the arithmetical mean, is not only a specific but also an extreme case. It implicitly allows for unlimited substitution. A one-unit reduction in one goal can be fully offset by a one-unit increase in another with the same weighting factor. For that reason, the current index satisfies an extremely weak sustainability concept. We show that the results in Halpern et al are not robust when one adopts a strong sustainability concept. The overall health score of the ocean decreases, the ranking of the various coastal states changes substantially, and the assessment of sustainable development needs to be partially reversed.


It has been a decade since the Supreme Court of Canada released its controversial decision in R. v. Ewanchuk. One of the central doctrinal issues raised by critics of Ewanchuk was a concern that it would not sufficiently allow for the mistaken belief defence in cases involving 'morally innocent' accused engaged in typical sexual overtures or in cases where the accused and complainant were in an ongoing sexual relationship at the time of the offence. A review of the reported cases, since 1998, demonstrates that the Ewanchuk analysis, properly interpreted, does not unjustly criminalize the progression of intimate behavior between genuinely consenting adults. Less promisingly, the post-Ewanchuk case law also suggests that in circumstances involving intimate partners or spouses, trial judges may be more likely to wrongly rely on the assumption that as between spouses the doctrine of implied consent still exists. Ewanchuk, it seems, has achieved better respect from the law for the sexual integrity of the intoxicated party-goer. The trial decisions discussed in the last section of this paper suggest Ewanchuk has been less able to achieve this with respect to the sexual integrity of wives and girlfriends.


ABSTRACT This study employs a combination of historical documents and faunal remains to examine food procurement strategies, purchasing patterns and foodways among the residents of Hammondville, a late 19th-century, multi-ethnic, company-owned mining town located in the Adirondack region of eastern upstate New York (USA). The Crown Point Iron Company (C.P.I.Co.), which operated the only store in the village, controlled both peoples' incomes and the types of food available for purchase. Despite this, analysis of company store records and zooarchaeological data suggest that individuals and families from different backgrounds worked within the structures of company control to construct diets that met their subsistence needs and expressed their cultural identities. They accomplished this by selectively utilising the store inventory and by supplementing store-bought foods through fishing, hunting and raising small numbers of domesticated animals.


The earliest experiments were conducted to discover how to produce chipped stone tools using nonmetallic knapping tools. By 1880, the major perceived problems were solved: ancient stone tools were made by direct stone percussion, later tools might be finished by pressure flaking with an antler tine, and flakes, since they could be duplicated by natural forces, should be accepted as man-made only when found in quantity and made to a pattern. In the 1890s, in America, the acceptance of the European Paleolithic as genuine led to many wild claims about the age of American bifaces, and experimentation was aimed at proving that American bifaces were not ancient. The majority of publications between 1900 and 1919 concern the eolith controversy and present a clear case of argument and counterargument. The balance of evidence suggests that eoliths are not artifacts. Major in the 1920s was L. Coutier's experimentally informed discussion of the evolution of European lithic technology. The '30s are important in producing a number of detailed studies of particular lithic industries. Efficient archaeologist-knappers are found in France, England, and America; unfortunately, they seem to have little contact with one another. On the eoliths, Wen Chung Pei's 1936 report is so superb that it should never again have been necessary to argue their relative merits. Several publications of the 1940s indicate that previous experimentation is being forgotten and therefore repeated. However, by their excellence, H. Holmes Ellis's opus on all known methods of knapping stone and W. J. Knowles's description of the manufacture of a point from core to final basal notching partially redeem the decade. The 1950s are a period of consolidation in which little new work is pursued but that which has been learned reaches a larger audience. By 1960 the major lines of research pursued by present knappers were well established. The years since 1960 have seen an explosive growth in lithic experimentation accompanied by increasing sophistication and greater impact on archaeological studies of lithic industries.


Objective: To study the mechanism of apolipoprotein M (Apo M) in the anti-atherosclerosis process of Simvastatin.
Methods: New Zealand white rabbit were used to obtain arteriosclerosis model, and divided into simvastatin group, control group and Sham group. High-fat diet was given for 20 weeks, the wall structure of rabbit carotid arterial and the middle thickness and plaque size number were observed. And calculate the correction plaque area (cross-sectional area of plaque area/arterial lumen), and further measured intimal proliferation degree. The level of Apo M was detected in the treatment of the expression level of middle and late.
Results: There was significant difference between the simvastatin group and the control group in the anti-atherosclerosis process. Besides, the correction area of plaque, inner membrane and middle membrane area were checked and found statistically significant when compared with controlled group. The content of Apo M was increased with the treatment progress. At the same time, the content of MDA was decreased significantly.
Conclusion: The artery plaque was serious in the control group; the middle membrane hyperplasia was in disorder, the number of collagen fiber was much more than before, elastic fiber was fewer. However, the carotid artery intima was still complete, no artery plaque, smooth muscle in middle membrane, elastic fiber rich was rich, and intima-media membrane area was close to normal level.


Objective: To investigate the sensitivity and specificity of two retropulsion tests for identifying individuals with Parkinson's disease that will fall and/or experiencing near falls.Background: People with PD have an increased risk for falls and experiencing near falls. They are particularly unstable backwards, and different retropulsion tests exist. Item 30 of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) is most common, involving an expected shoulder pull. Others advocate using an unexpected shoulder pull, e.g. the Nutt Retropulsion test (NRT).Methods: The study included 104 people with PD (mean age and PD-duration, 68 and 4.7 years, respectively) visiting a neurological clinic during 2006–2011. Those >80 years of age, requiring support in standing or did not understand the instructions were excluded. UPDRS and NRT assessments were conducted in the "on" condition. Participants then registered all falls and near falls by using a diary for six months. Based on this, participants were defined as "stable" (no falls/near falls) or "unstable" (1 fall / near fall). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated.Results: Mean (SD) score for UPDRS III was 14.5 (8.1). Fiftyfive (53%) participants were classified as "stable" and 49 (47%) as "unstable". Both the NRT and item 30 (UPDRS) scores differed significantly (p = 0.003) between the groups. Mean NRT and item 30 scores were 0.18 (0.51) and 0.33 (0.61) for the "stable" group versus 0.63 (0.88) and 0.71 (0.74) for the "unstable" group. Sensitivity/specificity were 37%/87% (NRT), and 55%/75% (UPDRS item 30). Positive/negative predictive values were 72%/61% (NRT) and 66%/65% (UPDRS item 30).Conclusions: In this mildly affected sample, both NRT and item 30 had low sensitivity in detecting prospective falls and/or near falls over six months. Our findings speak against using either of these tests alone for this purpose and support previous recommendations of using multiple tests when targeting balance problems in people with PD.


Mapper algorithm can be used to build graph-based representations of high-dimensional data capturing structurally interesting features such as loops, flares or clusters. The graph can be further annotated with additional colouring of vertices allowing location of regions of special interest. For instance, in many applications, such as precision medicine, Mapper graph has been used to identify unknown compactly localized subareas within the dataset demonstrating unique or unusual behaviours. This task, performed so far by a researcher, can be automatized using hotspot analysis. In this work we propose a new algorithm for detecting hotspots in Mapper graphs. It allows automatizing of the hotspot detection process. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on a number of artificial and real world datasets. We further demonstrate how our algorithm can be used for the automatic selection of the Mapper lens functions.