The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that can be used to validate long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that will reduce the key uncertainties in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. CLARREO will make highly accurate and SI-traceable global, decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood climate forcing, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are necessary to understand global, decadal climate changes.


Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and related psychopathology were examined in 95 female rape victims beginning soon after the assault (mean=12.64 days). Subjects were assessed weekly for 12 weeks. Ninety-four percent of women met symptomatic criteria for PTSD at Assessment 1, decreasing to 65% at Assessment 4 (mean=35 days postassault), and 47% at Assessment 12 (mean=94 days postassault). PTSD and related psychopathology decreased sharply between Assessments 1 and 4 for all women. Women whose PTSD persisted throughout the 3-month study did not show improvement after the fourth assessment; women who did not meet criteria for PTSD 3 months postassault showed steady improvement over time. This pattern was evidenced even after initial PTSD severity was statistically controlled. Moreover, PTSD status at 3 months postassault could be predicted with a high degree of accuracy by two brief self-report measures administered at the first assessment. The implications of the present findings and directions for future research are discussed.


The California Law Revision Commission has been working for ten years on administrative law reform. This work resulted in one solid success--enactment in 1995 of a new Administrative Procedure Act for adjudication. The new APA modernized California's APA by providing an administrative law bill of rights for litigants before agencies not covered by prior law. It also introduced some important reforms such as informal hearings and alternate dispute resolution. The Law Revision Commission also suffered two ignominious failures: its judicial review reform bill was killed in a state senate committee and a modest set of rulemaking reforms passed the legislature but was vetoed by the governor. This article analyzes the politics of state administrative procedure law reform in California, identifying the relevant players and pointing out the pitfalls that any state administrative law reform is likely to encounter. Reformers must enlist a powerful political patron to back the project and must be prepared to compromise until virtually all serious opposition is neutralized. They must articulate a powerful intellectual case for reform, in order to counter the cliche "if it ain't broke don't fix it." In particular, there must be some benefit in the reform package for state agencies so that they have a reason to buy in. For example, a provision for informal hearings or a provision that allows an agency to adopt precedent decisions without going through rulemaking might be attractive to agencies. Agencies will staunchly resist reforms that increase their costs (for example, by required rulemaking) or reduce their autonomy or power (for example, by stripping them of their administrative law judges or diminishing their ability to overturn ALJ findings). Similarly, the private sector will resist reforms that diminish procedural or judicial review protections. Many people will mistrust and misunderstand any reform effort. In the nature of the political process, it is easy to kill legislation (especially when generous campaign contributors are trying to kill it) and hard to pass it. Therefore, reformers must be as inclusive as possible during the drafting of legislation so that all major players can have input into the process. It will often be necessary in this process to scale back ambitious reform proposals and make timely compromises. Failure to recognize these realities of political life doomed the Law Revision Commission's judicial review bill. The article surveys existing Pennsylvania administrative law which is relatively primitive. The waves of reform marked by the 1961 and 1981 Model State Administrative Procedure Acts have largely passed Pennsylvania by. The lack of statutory law has forced Pennsylvania courts to reform administrative procedure by applying the state constitution. These decisions seem ill-informed and they unduly constrain the legislature. On the other hand, Pennsylvania's system of uniform administrative procedural rules is a significant innovation. Pennsylvania administrative law needs updating, but the process of achieving reform will be tedious and difficult. The California experience should prove valuable to Pennsylvania as it undertakes this process.


We can trace the beginnings of our knowledge of early Upper Paleolithic (Aurignacian) use of fire to the pioneering 1910–1911 excavations at Abri Blanchard undertaken by Louis Didon and Marcel Castanet. At Blanchard, the excavators recognized and described fire structures that correspond in many ways to features excavated more recently in Western and Central Europe. Here, we address the issue of heat and light management in the early Upper Paleolithic, demonstrating a pattern that builds on these early excavations but that is refined through our recent field operations. Topics to be discussed include (1) recently excavated fire structures that suggest complex fire management and use, (2) the seemingly massive use of bone as fuel in most early Aurignacian sites, and (3) the anchoring of skin structures for purposes of heat retention with fireplaces behind animal-skin walls. Furthermore, new data on activities around fireplaces make it possible to infer social and organizational aspects of fire structures within Aurignacian living spaces. The vast majority of early Aurignacian occupations, most of them now dated to between 33,000 and 32,000 BP (uncalibrated), occurred on a previously unoccupied bedrock platform into which the occupants dug their fire features.


This paper discusses the relationship between applied policy research commissioned by the state and the development and maintenance of critical human geographies. In contrast with recent debates, which have centred on the relative status of human geography within policy circles, we focus on the often mundane and messy realities of undertaking policy research. The paper argues that applied policy research offers considerable potential for human geographers to pursue substantive and normative concerns, but can also place geographers in complex and demanding situations that present practical and ethical challenges. In such contexts, being 'relevant' in the manner demanded by policy actors while maintaining critical integrity necessitates a high degree of reflexivity, strategic calculation and tradeoffs between principles and pragmatism. The paper draws on our experience of undertaking contract research on parish and town councils for the UK government. We emphasize the opportunities and pitfalls represented by the internal differentiation of the state, the importance of active negotiation and compromise with clients and stakeholders, the mediating role played by the 'evidence base', the politics of expertise and the use of applied policy research as a platform for wider policy engagement. The paper concludes by calling for greater reflection on the realities of applied policy research.


This paper proposes a method for the prediction of pore size values in hydrocarbon reservoirs using 3D seismic data. To this end, an actual carbonate oil field in the south-western part of Iran was selected. Taking real geological conditions into account, different models of reservoir were constructed for a range of viable pore size values. Seismic surveying was performed next on these models. From seismic response of the models, a large number of seismic attributes were identified as candidates for pore size estimation. Classes of attributes such as energy, instantaneous, and frequency attributes were included amongst others. Applying sensitivity analysis, we determined Instantaneous Amplitude and asymmetry as the two most significant attributes. These were subsequently used in our machine learning algorithms. In particular, we used feedforward artificial neural networks (FNN) and support vector regression machines (SVR) to develop relationships between the known attributes and pore size values in a given setting. The FNN consists of twenty one neurons in a single hidden layer and the SVR method uses a Gaussian radial basis function. Compared with real values from the well data, we observed that SVM performs better than FNN due to its better handling of noise and model complexity.


Since its inception in the early 1990s, e-commerce has grown swiftly in Mexico, making inroads into some of the most dynamic sectors of the Mexican economy. The actual extent of e-commerce use, however, is still very limited, as diffusion is hindered by both the low income levels of most Mexican households and the fact that the overwhelming majority of business establishments are very small, lacking the resources to invest in computers and the business culture to go online. This article examines the emergence of e-commerce in Mexico arguing that the main drivers of the process have been the initiatives of large private firms and the work of specialized organizations. It concludes that this is not just a passing boom but a concrete step toward the rise of an Internet-based economy in Mexico along the lines of the New Economy that took shape in the United States in the 1990s and is assumed to spread into developing nations.


Communication is a key component in management strategies designed to influence park visitor behavior and minimize social and ecological impacts. However, messages targeting management problems are often delivered without a real understanding of the specific underlying visitor beliefs. This paper applies the theory of planned behavior in the design and evaluation of messages targeting park visitor induced management problems. The method enables specific identification of how messages influence visitor beliefs and behavior. This enables managers to target and refine their messages in a measured, purposeful way for maximum effectiveness. Belief elicitation and measurement surveys were conducted at two Australian park sites, Badger Weir picnic area and Yellagonga Regional Park. The survey results informed the content of messages targeting specific problem behaviors at each site. Message interventions were installed at each site and their effectiveness evaluated based on a second belief measurement survey, and observations of visitor behavior. While the interventions were effective, repeat visitors with strong intentions and habitual behaviors seemed less prone to influence using this method. Despite overall increases in compliance at the two sites, the tested interventions were not successful in influencing salient beliefs or corresponding attitudes of these highly experienced visitors. This presents an additional challenge to parks managers. Visitors who engage in habitual behavior require an alternative approach involving different messages and different message delivery systems relative to their counter-parts. While more overt enforcement could be applied to address entrenched behaviors, alternative efforts might begin in the communities where local repeat visitors live, using a campaign style of communication.


In this paper, we present versatile and effective techniques to synthesise silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs)-based compounds such as colloidal silver nanoparticles (CSNPs) and silver nanoparticles powders (SNPPs). The CSNPs stabilised by a surfactant oleic acid were produced for the first time through the reduction of [Ag(NH3)2]+(aq) complex by glucose with UV irradiation treatment, while the SNPPs were formed by thermal decomposition of silver-oleate complex at 330°C for 1 h. The CNPPs and CSNPs with average diameters (~9–10 nm) and highly stableaqueous dispersions were obtained. Noticeably, these synthesised Ag-NPs exhibited an excellent antibacterial activity against gram-negative Escherichia coli (ATCC 43888-O157:k-:H7) and methicillin-resistant gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 43300) bacteria. The electron microscopic technique provided deeper insights on the interaction and bactericidal mechanism of the Ag-NPs. Potential applications of the synthesised CSNPs and SNPPs for antibacterial – masterbatchs, acrylic emulsion paint as well as coating layer on cotton textiles were demonstrated.


The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of increased movement on different landscapes of lactating ewes and goats on bone metabolism.
A group of five adult lactating ewes and goats was kept on pasture at 2000 to 2600 m a.s.l. and 400 m a.s.l., respectively. Two ewes and goats were equipped with a GPS receiver in order to calculate daily tracks on the alpine landscape. The milk yield was measured, blood samples were taken and the metatarsus was measured three times with peripheral computed tomography (pQCT).
The ewes walked on average longer distances and covered larger altitude differences. They remained mainly on grass-covered landscapes, whereas the goats stayed in bush-dominated areas. The sheep from both groups revealed an increase in cortical thickness, bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC). The goats from the lowland group revealed a decrease in BMD, whereas in the goats from the alpine group a decrease in cortical thickness and an increase in BMC was detectable. The goats produced significantly more milk than the sheep. In sheep, there was no lactation induced bone loss detectable compared to the goats which could be partially reduced by increased movement straights.


Markovian models can generate very large sparse matrices, which are difficult to store and solve. A useful method for finding transient probabilities in Markovian models is the uniformization. The aim of this paper is to show that the performance of the uniformization can be improved using multi-GPU architecture. We propose partitioning scheme for HYB sparse matrix storage format and some optimization techniques adjusted so as to minimize communication between GPUs during iterative sparse matrix-vector multiplication, which is the most time consuming step. The results of experiments show that on multi-GPU we can solve larger matrices than on single device and accelerate computations in comparison to a multithreaded CPU. Computational test have been carried out in double precision for a wireless network models. Using multi-GPU we were able to solve model which is described by a matrix of the size 3.6×107.


Members of the SNARE (soluble NSF attachment protein receptor) superfamily of proteins are indispensable players in all intracellular transport pathways. Sec1/Munc18 (SM) proteins are also essential for membrane trafficking, but a model encompassing universal function(s) for SM proteins has been difficult to formulate.

The yeast SM protein Vps45p regulates traffic from the trans-Golgi network (TGN) to late endosomes and facilitates the assembly of its cognate SNARE proteins (Tlg2p, Tlg1p, Vti1p, and Snc2p) into complexes. The first section of this work addresses the interaction(s) between Vps45p and its cognate SNARE partners. The second area of investigation in this work addresses the functional role(s) of these interactions. Analysis of one mode of interaction between Vps45p and its cognate syntaxin, Tlg2p, reveals that this mode of interaction is dispensable for Vps45p function. A dominant negative version of Vps45p is exploited to uncover an interaction between Vps45p and SNARE complexes that is mediated via a second, distinct mode. An investigation of the ability of Vps45p to interact with each of its individual cognate SNARE proteins also uncovers an interaction between Vps45p and its cognate v-SNARE, Snc2p. Collectively, these results suggest that Vps45p executes its function(s) through multiple modes of interaction with its cognate SNARE proteins, and support a model in which Vps45p undertakes a series of distinct interactions with specific intermediates of the SNARE cycle. Such a model would allow Vps45p to play multiple roles in the SNARE cycle and would also help contribute to a unifying hypothesis to describe SM protein function.


Many software projects have failed because their requirements were poorly negotiated among stakeholders. Reaching agreements of negotiated requirements among stakeholders who have different concerns, responsibilities, and priorities is quite challenging. Formal (fully-automated) approaches of requirements negotiation require significant efforts of knowledge representation and validation, whereas informal (manual) approaches do not provide systematic methods of requirements negotiation. This paper proposes a novel light-weighted, yet systematic requirements negotiation model, called "Multi-Criteria Preference Analysis Requirements Negotiation (MPARN)" to guide stakeholders to evaluate, negotiate, and agree upon alternatives among stakeholders using multi-criteria preference analysis theory. This eight-step MPARN model was applied to requirements gathered for an industrial-academic repository system. The result showed that the MPARN model assisted stakeholders to have unbiased aspects within a requirements negotiation in a light-weighted way and increase stakeholders' levels of cooperation and trust by measuring each stakeholder's preference and value function explicitly through a step-by-step process.


You have been appointed as the Nurse Manager of a nursing home that provides long term care for older people and have become aware that a large proportion of residents have pressure ulcers. You know that many preventive measures, such as special beds and mattresses, are promoted, but feel unsure as to which residents are most at risk and which characteristics predict those most likely to develop pressure ulcers. Although you know there are some pressure ulcer risk prediction tools available, you are not sure that these would apply to your residents and so would like to read some original research on the topic. Your long term goal is to ensure that care is targeted at those residents at highest risk so that preventable ulcers are avoided. Your focused clinical question is which characteristics of nursing home residents place them at higher risk of pressure ulcer development?

You begin by searching Evidence-Based Nursing Online (www.evidencebasednursing.com) using the search term "pressure ulcer*". This search identifies 8 abstracts, none of which address questions of risk factors. Similarly, a search of Evidence-Based Medicine finds no relevant studies. You try PubMed (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov), which is freely available online. You select the Clinical Queries search option, and the "Etiology" search because you are looking for articles concerned with the causation of pressure ulcers. You decide that your search should emphasise sensitivity over specificity so that you can minimise the risk of missing relevant articles. Your search terms are "pressure ulcer*" AND "nursing home*". This search identifies 32 abstracts, one of which, "A longitudinal study of risk factors associated with the formation of pressure ulcers in nursing homes" sounds relevant.1

Studies that consider risk factors (often referred to as exposures) for certain diseases (often referred to as outcomes) are generally called analytical observational studies. They are …


Recently, the EU energy debate has been dominated by the discussion on energy prices and the competitiveness of the European industry. According to the latest estimates of the International Energy Agency, gas prices in the US are one-quarter of those in Europe. Moreover, prices of imported gas vary across the EU member states.

Some EU policy-makers hope that the completion of the internal energy market and the transition to hub-based pricing will solve these discrepancies. Julian Wieczorkiewicz asks in this Commentary whether the abolition of oil-indexation will constitute a cure-all for the above-mentioned problems.


When software engineers fix bugs, they may have several options as to how to fix those bugs. Which fix they choose has many implications, both for practitioners and researchers: What is the risk of introducing other bugs during the fix? Is the bug fix in the same code that caused the bug? Is the change fixing the cause or just covering a symptom? In this paper, we investigate alternative fixes to bugs and present an empirical study of how engineers make design choices about how to fix bugs. Based on qualitative interviews with 40 engineers working on a variety of products, data from 6 bug triage meetings, and a survey filled out by 326 engineers, we found a number of factors, many of them non-technical, that influence how bugs are fixed, such as how close to release the software is. We also discuss several implications for research and practice, including ways to make bug prediction and localization more accurate.


Since the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in the 1980's, the financial system has witnessed excessive liberalization. Community Banks which were the main stay of the financial system have transformed to Microfinance Banks (MFB) resulting from the uncontrolled collapsed of these institutions. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) very recently introduced reforms meant to curb the high incidence of bank failures in the country that required the introduction of minimum capital requirement for the establishment of commercial Banks and MFBs. After some years of experiments, it was obvious that the reforms put in place were not adequate to stem the tide of bank failures. It was as a result of this that the Apex Bank (Central Bank of Nigeria) increase the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks to N25b ($160,000). Many Banks could not meet this new capital requirement and were faced with the option of been merged with other stronger banks or allowed themselves to be completely taken over by other banks. From researches done on the performance of banks, it has been proven that banks tend to do very well when the economy is also doing very well. It is on this basis that this work has been undertaken to confirm this assertion or otherwise confirm that non- performing loans tend to increase when the economy slacks into a recession. The study found that increase in non-performing loans impacted negatively on the Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria and that increase in lending rate and inflation rate cause non-performing loans to increase. The implication of this study is that Central bank should introduce policies that can have moderating effects on inflation and lending rates.Government should pay their loans on time and insider abuse should be eliminated from the financial system. Above all, banks should know their customers before granting loans to them, infact adhering strictly to the 5C's of credit in modern banking practice.


This research explored the phenomenon of school financial management in three secondary schools located in the Qacha's Nek district of Lesotho. In particular, the study focused on ways in which secondary schools obtain their finances. In addition, this study also discussed ways in which the said schools budget their finances. It explored measures that the schools put in place to monitor and control their budgets. Through the use of purposive sampling, three schools were selected as cases in order to ensure that there was a representation of the type of schools that are found in the Qacha's Nek district of Lesotho. The principals of the three schools were selected as participants since they are chief accounting officers and as such they have knowledge relevant to this study. Document reviews were used to supplement information obtained from interviews with the principals. This study concluded that the three case study secondary schools obtain financial resources from a number of sources which include, inter alia, sponsors, school fees and fund raising activities. The government also allocate subvention to its schools. Furthermore, the three case study schools prepare their main budgets and department budgets. However, principals play a major role in decisions regarding school budgets. In two schools, for example, the principals provide teachers with guidelines to follow in preparing departmental budgets.
With regard to budget monitoring and control this study revealed that there are no clear measures in place regarding schools' main budgets in the three case study schools though departmental budgets seemed to be well monitored and controlled by the principals. It was also found that there seems to be a lack of policies that guide schools on the management of finances. Schools were also found to use secretaries as bursars though secretaries have limited knowledge of financial matters. In addition, the study revealed that principals, school secretaries and heads of departments need capacity building on financial matters. This study recommends an in-depth investigation of experiences of principals on the use of subvention. The study also recommends, inter alia, formulation of financial policies by schools and changes to the law on school funding by the Ministry of Education and Training.


The aim of the research outlined in this thesis is to establish what type of interface would be most suitable for object oriented databases. In particular it examines how graphical interface technologies might be used to present the database in a clearer form.

In support of the research, a prototype interface system has also been developed to a commercial database to illustrate the practicality of the development of such an interface, and the increased effectiveness of the resultant system.

The thesis outlines the features provided by the interface, the benefits accrued from such a system, and the problems associated with its development.

Finally, it examines how such a system fits into the current work being carried out in the area of user interaction with databases.


In the past several decades, there has been a growing chorus of voices contending that the Supreme Court and federal judiciary should stay out of foreign affairs and leave the field to Congress and the president. Challenging this idea, this book argues instead for a robust judicial role in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. The book demonstrates that the Supreme Court and federal judiciary have the power and duty to apply the law without deference to the other branches. Turning first to the founding of the nation, the book shows that the Constitution's original commitment to separation of powers was as strong in foreign as domestic matters, not least because the document shifted enormous authority to the new federal government. This initial conception eroded as the nation rose from fledgling state to superpower, fueling the growth of a dangerously formidable executive that today asserts near-plenary foreign affairs authority. The book explores how modern international relations makes the commitment to balance among the branches of government all the more critical and considers implications for modern controversies that the judiciary will continue to confront. At a time when executive and legislative actions in the name of U.S. foreign policy are only increasing, the book makes the case for a zealous judicial defense of fundamental rights involving global affairs.


On 2004 December 27, the soft gamma repeater (SGR) 1806-20 emitted the brightest giant flare (GF) ever detected from an SGR. This burst of energy, which resulted in an (isotropic) energy release ~100 times greater than the only two other known SGR GFs, was followed by a very bright, fading radio afterglow. Extensive follow-up radio observations provided a wealth of information with unprecedented astrometric precision, revealing the temporal evolution of the source size, along with densely sampled light curves and spectra. Here we expand on our previous work on this source, by explaining these observations within one self-consistent dynamical model. In this scenario, the early radio emission is due to the outflow ejected during the GF energizing a thin shell surrounding a preexisting cavity, where the observed steep temporal decay of the radio emission seen beginning on day 9 is attributed to the adiabatic cooling of the shocked shell. The shocked ejecta and external shell move outward together, driving a forward shock into the ambient medium, and are eventually decelerated by a reverse shock. As we show in a separate work by Gelfand and coworkers, the radio emission from the shocked external medium naturally peaks when significant deceleration occurs and then decays relatively slowly. The dynamical modeling of the collision between the ejecta and the external shell, together with the observed evolution of the source size (which is nicely reproduced in our model), suggests that most of the energy in the outflow was in mildly relativistic material, with an initial expansion velocity v/c ≲ d15(1 + d)-1/2 ~ 0.7, for a distance of 15d15 kpc to SGR 1806-20. An initially highly relativistic outflow would not have produced a long coasting phase at a mildly relativistic expansion velocity, as was observed.


This paper develops a soil conservation model that is relevant to smallholder farmers who apply little or no fertilizer. Empirical results drawn from northern Tanzania imply that, ignoring fertility mining problem in model specification leads to overestimation of profits for farms that apply little or no fertilizer. The model also shows that, the impact of output price on soil conservation efforts depends on the curvature of the soil erosion function.


Objectives To explore utilisation patterns of asthma medication before, during and after pregnancy as recorded in seven European population-based databases. Design A descriptive drug utilisation study. Setting 7 electronic healthcare databases in Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Italy (Emilia Romagna and Tuscany), Wales, and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink representing the rest of the UK. Participants All women with a pregnancy ending in a delivery that started and ended between 2004 and 2010, who had been present in the database for the year before, throughout and the year following pregnancy. Main outcome measures The percentage of deliveries where the woman received an asthma medicine prescription, based on prescriptions issued (UK) or dispensed (non-UK), during the year before, throughout or during the year following pregnancy. Asthma medicine prescribing patterns were described for 3-month time periods and the choice of asthma medicine and changes in prescribing over the study period were evaluated in each database. Results In total, 1 165 435 deliveries were identified. The prevalence of asthma medication prescribing during pregnancy was highest in the UK and Wales databases (9.4% (CI95 9.3% to 9.6%) and 9.4% (CI95 9.1% to 9.6%), respectively) and lowest in the Norwegian database (3.7% (CI95 3.7% to 3.8%)). In the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of asthma medication prescribing remained constant in all regions. Prescribing levels peaked during the second trimester of pregnancy and were at their lowest during the 3-month period following delivery. A decline was observed, in all regions except the UK, in the prescribing of long-acting β-2-agonists during pregnancy. During the 7-year study period, there were only small changes in prescribing patterns. Conclusions Differences were found in the prevalence of prescribing of asthma medications during and surrounding pregnancy in Europe. Inhaled β-2 agonists and inhaled corticosteroids were, however, the most popular therapeutic regimens in all databases.


Abstract Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.


This policy letter adds to the current discussion on how to design a program of government assistance for firms hurt by the Coronavirus crisis. While not pretending to provide a cure-all proposal, the advocated scheme could help to bring funding to firms, even small firms, quickly, without increasing their leverage and default risk. The plan combines outright cash transfers to firms with a temporary, elevated corporate profit tax at the firm level as a form of conditional payback. The implied equity-like payment structure has positive risk-sharing features for firms, without impinging on ownership structures. The proposal has to be implemented at the pan-European level to strengthen Euro area resilience.


This pot study assessed the effects of deferring forage during autumn and leaving as winter cover on reducing cold damage to plants of 2 tropical (C4) grasses ( Chloris gayana and Panicum coloratum ) in a temperate environment in La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Mature plants were subjected to the following treatments: (i) autumn-deferred forage retained (DF) as control; and (ii) autumn-deferred forage removed (DFR) cutting at 15 cm from soil level at beginning of winter. This experiment had 10 replicates per treatment and 1 plant per pot (experimental unit). Plants of both species were extracted from a commercial beef farm and transplanted into an experimental garden in pots where they grew outdoors from 2 February to 23 May (111 days) when treatments were applied. After winter, both grasses were cut to 15 cm in early spring (27 September) and spring growth was measured in November. Shoot biomass was harvested at ground level and separated into lower and upper layers (above and below 15 cm), leaf blades, sheaths and stolons. Daily air temperature, relative humidity and frost events were registered. Allometric analysis of shoot biomass was performed to determine the stress incidence by cold. DF plants achieved 55‒80% higher shoot biomass than DFR plants during spring in both species. The allometric analysis revealed for P. coloratum significant relationships between shoot biomass from plant compartments (lower and upper layers, leaf blade and sheath) and total shoot biomass in both treatments, indicating good cold tolerance. However, for C. gayana, unlike DF plants, DFR plants were strongly stressed, showing a lack of shoot biomass fit. These results suggest that deferring autumn forage growth and retaining as winter cover may improve survival during winter and productivity during spring of these two tropical grasses in temperate pastoral systems. However, the study needs to be repeated under field conditions and under grazing or cutting over a number of years in different situations to verify these preliminary results. Keywords : Winter cover, cold damage, frost protection, pasture management.


A computer program (NESURVELANA) has been developed in Visual Basic Computer programming language to carry out a near surface velocity analysis. The method of analysis used includes: Algorithms design and Visual Basic codes generation for plotting arrival time (ms) against geophone depth (m) employing the Least-Squares approximation to fit the best lines, computing velocities from the reciprocals of the slopes of the lines and determining thickness for multi-layer cases. The program was debugged and test-run on Microsoft Windows XP using a set of two near-surface seismic velocity data acquired by the Up-hole technique within the South-Central Niger Delta, Nigeria. The first set of data showed a weathered two-layer case, where the layer has a thickness of 6.0 m and velocity of 431 m/s and a consolidated layer velocity of 1845 m/s. The second set of data was a weathered three-layer case, where the thicknesses were 4.3 m and 7.7 m with the weathered and second layer with velocities of 513 m/s and 1132 m/s respectively and a consolidated layer velocity of 1756 m/s for the third layer. These results are comparable with those obtained by other researchers for the Niger Delta, Nigeria. The resulting information from this near-surface velocity analysis is essential for static corrections for the accurate mapping of the underlying structures for oil and gas exploration, and geotechnical engineering for foundation works in building houses, bridges, dams and construction of highways. Keywords : Algorithm design, visual basic codes, least-squares approximation,weathered layer thickness and velocity. Nigerian Journal of Physics Vol. 19 (2) 2007: pp. 253-266


An agent that learns tasks from the user faces several problems: learning executable procedures; identifying relevant features of data in complex environments; filtering out irrelevant user actions; keeping the user in control without miring the user in the details of programming; and utilizing all forms of instruction the user might give including examples, ambiguous hints and partial specifications. This paper discusses the design and preliminary implementation of a system that aims toward these goals. Several lessons for system designers arise from this experience: the quality of user interaction is more important than the power of inference, though plausible inferences surely improve user interaction; involving end-users in all phases of design is critical to justifying design decisions; micro-theories of users, actions and data can take the place of domain theory in domains that have no formal theory; and, finally, a conventional concept (classification) learner can be adapted to utilize micro-theories to learn deterministic, operational action descriptions from examples, hints and partial specifications.


The purpose of this study was to validate the problem behavior evaluation section of an expert system computer program, Class.BD. Class.BD was developed to assist special education personnel in determining whether students qualify for special education services as behaviorally disordered/severely emotionally disturbed students.
The subjects were six individuals from the state of Utah who regularly (1) work with behaviorally disordered/severely emotionally disturbed students and (2) participate in multidisciplinary assessment teams. Three of the subjects were special educators, and three were school psychologists.
Specifically, this study investigated the impact of five behavioral factors on the subjects' ratings of the seriousness of problem behaviors. The five behavioral factors were (1) the severity or nature of the problem behavior, (2) the frequency with which the problem behavior occurs, (3) the duration over which the problem behavior has been occurring, (4) the generality of the problem behavior or the number of school environments the behavior occurs in, and (5) the percentage of the student's peers who engage in the same behavior. For each behavioral factor, three levels of that factor were determined: high, moderate, and low. Problem behavior descriptions were developed by the researcher, each of which presented the five behavioral factors at a predetermined combination of levels. Of 65 problem behavior descriptions, 33 described externalized problem behaviors and 32 described internalized problem behaviors. Subjects were asked to rate the seriousness of each problem behavior description on an 11 point scale, where 1 = mild and 11 = severe.
The results showed high levels of agreement among subjects on ratings of seriousness of problem behaviors. There was also high agreement between the subjects' rating and ratings generated by the Class.BD expert system. Thus, Class.BD was validated. Further, the subjects gave highly similar ratings to descriptions of externalized and internalized problem behaviors.
The results also indicated that the severity of the problem behaviors had the most impact on subjects' ratings. Subjects discriminated three levels of severity but only two levels of frequency, duration, generality, and percentage of peers.
Finally, the results provided support for the use of analysis of variance as a viable method of knowledge engineering, i.e., extracting information about how experts make decisions. Its superiority over traditional interview methods is discussed.


Despite the drivers of excessive material consumption being well documented, little research has examined if educational interventions can address consumption and its underlying materialistic values. This thesis explores if an educational intervention can decrease materialistic values and excessive consumption behaviour at the individual level. An intervention utilising a combination of two key strategies (emulating voluntary simplicity practices; and cultivating mindfulness) was developed, implemented, and evaluated.

The research consists of two phases. Phase 1 informs the design of the intervention through interview (n = 29) and survey (n = 443) data. Positive correlational relationships were found between materialistic values and variables such as ecological footprint and television consumption. A negative relationship was found between
materialistic values and psychological well-being. No significant differences were found between voluntary simplifiers and non-simplifiers on a range of measures including ecological footprint, mindfulness and psychological well-being. In-depth interviews with voluntary simplifiers (n = 15) and non-simplifiers (n = 14) identified the key practices of voluntary simplifiers, which included thoughtful purchasing, limiting television consumption, avoiding processed foods, reducing (paid) work hours and avoiding shopping centres. These practices were encouraged throughout the intervention and combined with mindfulness training.

Phase 2 consists of a wait-list control design evaluation. The treatment effects of the intervention were evaluated using ANCOVA comparing post-test and pre-test scores, with a comprehensive set of variables as the covariate. Twelve-week follow-up data from treatment and wait-list groups determined if changes were maintained. The educational intervention significantly reduced materialistic values in the short-term but changes were not maintained at 12-week follow-up. This highlighted that it is challenging to maintain intrinsic values in a highly materialistic environment. The intervention influenced overconsumption behaviour, with a significant increase in participant adoption of simple living practices. These changes were maintained at 12-week follow-up.

The evidence suggests an educational intervention can be an effective strategy for decreasing materialistic values and excessive consumption in the short-term; however, ongoing support and structural changes are required to ensure maintenance of such shifts in values and behaviour.


Abstract Temporal patterns in species occupancy and geographic range size are a major topic in evolutionary ecology research. Here we investigate these patterns in Pliocene to Recent large mammal species and genera in Western Eurasia. By using an extensively sampled fossil record including some 700 fossil localities, we found occupancy and range size trajectories over time to be predominantly peaked among both species and genera, meaning that occupancy and range size reached their maxima midway along taxon existence. These metrics are strongly correlated with each other and to body size, after phylogeny is accounted for by using two different phylogenetic topologies for both species and genera. Phylogenetic signal is strong in body size, and weaker but significant in both occupancy and range size mean values among genera, indicating that these variables are heritable. The intensity of phylogenetic signal is much weaker and often not significant at the species level. This suggests that within genera, occupancy and range size are somewhat variable. However, sister taxa inherit geographic position (the center of their geographic distribution). Taken together, the latter two results indicate that sister species occupy similar positions on the earth's surface, and that the expansion of the geographic range during the existence of a given genus is driven by range expansion of one or more of the species it includes, rather than simply being the summation of these species ranges.


This is an enchanting collection of the very best of Russian poetry, edited by acclaimed translator Robert Chandler together with poets Boris Dralyuk and Irina Mashinski. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, poetry's pre-eminence in Russia was unchallenged, with Pushkin and his contemporaries ushering in the 'Golden Age' of Russian literature. Prose briefly gained the high ground in the second half of the nineteenth century, but poetry again became dominant in the 'Silver Age' (the early twentieth century), when belief in reason and progress yielded once more to a more magical view of the world. During the Soviet era, poetry became a dangerous, subversive activity; nevertheless, poets such as Osip Mandelstam and Anna Akhmatova continued to defy the censors. This anthology traces Russian poetry from its Golden Age to the modern era, including work by several great poets - Georgy Ivanov and Varlam Shalamov among them - in captivating modern translations by Robert Chandler and others. The volume also includes a general introduction, chronology and individual introductions to each poet. Robert Chandler is an acclaimed poet and translator. His many translations from Russian include works by Aleksandr Pushkin, Nikolay Leskov, Vasily Grossman and Andrey Platonov, while his anthologies of Russian Short Stories from Pushkin to Buida and Russian Magic Tales are both published in Penguin Classics. Irina Mashinski is a bilingual poet and co-founder of the StoSvet literary project. Her most recent collection is 2013's Ophelia i masterok [Ophelia and the Trowel]. Boris Dralyuk is a Lecturer in Russian at the University of St Andrews and translator of many books from Russian, including, most recently, Isaac Babel's Red Cavalry (2014).


This paper analyzes whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the wide income gaps in Latin America. Panel cointegration techniques as well as regression analysis are performed to assess the impact of inward FDI stocks on income inequality among households in Latin American host countries. The panel cointegration analysis typically reveals a significant and positive effect on income inequality. There is no evidence for reverse causality. The findings are fairly robust to the choice of different estimation methods, sample selection and the period of observation.


The history of universities, including in the UK, is always also the history of the political community; their future, equally, dependent on the future of the community as a whole. In this review essay, Jana Bacevic examines two recent books that offer a good illustration of this point, Who Are Universities For? by Tom Sperlinger, Josie McLellan and Richard Pettigrew and British Universities in the Brexit Moment by Mike Finn.


Fisheries are coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) across distant places, yet fisheries research has generally focused on better understanding either fisheries ecology or human dimensions in a specific place, rather than their interactions over distances. As economic and ideational globalization accelerate, fisheries are becoming more globally connected via movements of fish products and fisheries finances, information, and stakeholders throughout the world. As such, there is a pressing need for systematic approaches to assess these linkages among global fisheries, their effects on ecosystems and food security, and their implications for fisheries science and sustainability. Use of the telecoupling framework is a novel and insightful method to systematically evaluate socioeconomic and environmental interactions among CHANS. We apply the telecoupling framework to the Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) fishery, the world's largest single-species commercial fishery and a complex CHANS. The anchoveta fishery has diverse and significant telecouplings, socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances, with the rest of the world, including fishmeal and fish oil trade, monetary flow, knowledge transfer, and movement of people. The use of the telecoupling framework reveals complex fishery dynamics such as feedbacks (e.g., profit maximization causing fishery overcapitalization) and surprises (e.g., stock collapse) resulting from local and long-distance ecological and socioeconomic interactions. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery illustrates how the telecoupling framework can be used to systematically assess the magnitude and diversity of local and distant fisheries interactions and thereby advance knowledge derived from traditional monothematic research approaches. Insights from the telecoupling framework provide a foundation from which to develop sustainable fisheries policy and management strategies across local, national, and international levels in a globalized world.


Carlos Montezuma (1866-1923) was one of the great Native American crusaders for Indian rights in the early twentieth century. This biography by an authority on Southwest Indian history tells a dramatic story that sheds light both on Montezuma's career and on the movements he influenced. A southern Arizona Yavapai called Wassaja by his parents, Montezuma was captured by rival tribesman as a boy and sold to a white man who gave him the name by which we know him. Trained as a physician, his career as a reformer began when he went to work at the Carlisle Indian School, for here--in addition to serving as physician to the famous Carlisle football team--he was able to meet many of the people centrally involved in the administration of federal Indian policy. Shortly after the turn of the century Montezuma emerged as a national leader of Native American affairs. He helped to found the Society of American Indians and became increasingly involved in the affairs of the Fort McDowell Yavapai reservation, earning fame among pan-Indian activists and among his own people in Arizona and attaining notoriety in the BIA.


A phase-space analysis of a rotational-shear volume interferometer is presented. It is shown that, in a fairly general condition of this interferometer and by using a Fourier transform method to retrieve spectrodirectional images, a defocus region of the source location exists near the interferometer. This indicates that the usual Fourier transform method has its focal point at an infinite distance. By focusing on finite-depth sources located in the defocus region, a new interferometric method to obtain both three-dimensional spatial information and spectral information of a stationary, quasi-homogeneous, polychromatic source distribution is developed. A key element of this method is the use of a filter function that acts on the volume interferogram of the rotational-shear volume interferometer. This filter function realizes, for a particular position of a monochromatic point source located within the defocus region, a diffraction-limited resolution of the interferometer for the spectrodirectional image.


Standard algal growth rate inhibition bioassays can lack environmental realism and may over- or underestimate metal bioavailability in natural systems. In aquatic environments, algal species interact with other biota, including other algae, bacteria and biofilms. In this work, the feasibility of incorporating marine biofilms into 72 h algal growth inhibition toxicity tests was explored. The effects of copper on Tetraselmis sp. were tested in the absence and presence of characterised field-collected biofilms. We hypothesised that the addition of biofilm would prevent copper toxicity to the alga primarily through interactions of the metal with other cells and biofilm exudates. The sensitivity of Tetraselmis sp. to copper (based on 72 h IC50 values; the copper concentration to inhibit population growth by 50%) in the presence of a blended biofilm inoculum varied 2-fold and was independent of the amount of biofilm added. However, increases in IC10 and IC20 values indicated some amelioration of copper toxicity. When intact biofilms were added to the bioassays, amelioration of toxicity was more consistent, probably due to increased binding of copper to cell surfaces or exudates. Difficulties in characterising biofilms and distinguishing that material from the test alga need to be overcome before biofilms can be routinely incorporated into laboratory bioassays.


With increasing population growth, the Harare Metropolitan Province has experienced accelerated land use and land cover (LULC) changes, influencing the city's growth. This study aims to assess spatiotemporal urban LULC changes, the axis, and patterns of growth as well as drivers influencing urban growth over the past three decades in the Harare Metropolitan Province. The analysis was based on remotely sensed Landsat Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager data from 1984–2018, GIS application, and binary logistic regression. Supervised image classification using support vector machines was performed on Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI data combined with the soil adjusted vegetation index, enhanced built-up and bareness index and modified difference water index. Statistical modelling was performed using binary logistic regression to identify the influence of the slope and the distance proximity characters as independent variables on urban growth. The overall mapping accuracy for all time periods was over 85%. Built-up areas extended from 279.5 km2 (1984) to 445 km2 (2018) with high-density residential areas growing dramatically from 51.2 km2 (1984) to 218.4 km2 (2018). The results suggest that urban growth was influenced mainly by the presence and density of road networks.


Genetic Algorithm (GA) as a class of Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) is a search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics. This dissertation presents the description, solving procedures and application of GA. The definitions of selection, crossover and mutation operators are given in details and an application based on GA in Time Table Problem (TTP) is performed in a new way. Due to its high capability of overall search, GA is particularly appropriate for solving timetabling and scheduling problems. TTP (Time Table Problem) which belongs to NP-hard problem is a special problem concerning resource management. In this dissertation, a new chromosome coding is designed in order to solve TTP more effectively. And the result presented by MATLAB will converge to a steady condition.


The self-deflection of slab laser beams with right-triangular and semi-Gaussian intensity profiles that pass through a thin nonlinear film are compared, and semi-Gaussian beam profiles are found to produce near-maximum self-deflection angles. We also analyze symmetric profiles (both triangular and Gaussian), which, instead of self-(de)focusing, exhibit strongly counter-self-deflected beams in the far-field region. This evidence indicates that the self-deflection effect can dominate over self-focusing.


Macroprudential policies, such as caps on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, have become part of the policy paradigm in emerging markets and advanced countries alike. Given that housing is the most important asset in household portfolios, relaxing or tightening access to mortgages may affect the distribution of household wealth in the country. In a stylised model we show that the final level of wealth inequality depends on the size of the LTV ratio, housing prices, credit cost and the strength of a bequest motive; ultimately with no unequivocal effect of LTV ratios on wealth inequality. These trade-offs are illustrated with estimations of "Gini Recentered Influence Function" regressions on household survey data from 12 Eurozone countries that participated in the first wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). The results show that, among the households with active mortgages, high LTV ratios at the time of acquisition are related to high contributions to wealth inequality today, while house price increases are negatively related to inequality contributions. A proxy for the strength of bequest motives tends to be negatively related with wealth inequality, but credit cost does not show a significant link to the distribution of wealth.


Vincent Van Gogh (1853-1890) is one of art history's greatest colourists. However, the first years of his career in Holland were above all influenced by the painters of the Barbizon and Hague schools, whose grey and gloomy palettes he emulated. It was only when he moved to Paris in early 1886 that his work began to gradually change. In the capital he studied the works of Delacroix his favourite artist but also old masters, impressionists and the avant-garde of the era. Van Gogh also drew inspiration from Japanese art, especially highly coloured engravings on wood that he started collecting. His palette gradually took on more colour under the influence of the chromatic theories he had already met in Holland, the meaning of which he now understood. In February 1888 Van Gogh set out for Arles, where he lived until early May 1889. Here his talent as a colourist flourished. The artist was fascinated by the light of the south and the intensity of colour he observed there. He combined all the sources of inspiration he had drew upon in Paris to create a very personal and expressive modern style. Following in Delacroixs footsteps, while drawing on Japanese art, he started using stark chromatic contrast along with a very dynamic brushstroke. Van Gogh hoped to form an artists community in Provence and Paul Gauguin joined him in Arles late October 1888. The pair worked together and influenced each other, but in late December their incompatible characters led to confrontation. Gauguin left, and Van Gogh's dream of an artists community was shattered. Mental illness led him to the asylum of Saint-Remy, where he developed a less contrasting style. His work ceased to express the radiant colours and light of the south that he had found in Arles.


Abstract Individuals with chronic pain may experience negative responses from spouse, family, and friends. Responses such as overt criticism and hostility may be associated with worsening pain and function for chronic pain sufferers. We used a laboratory procedure to evaluate whether variability in spouse criticism/hostility exhibited toward chronic low back pain (CLBP) patients during a conflictual discussion predicted variability in patient pain and function during a subsequent pain-induction task. Chronic low back pain patients (n = 71) and their spouses (n = 71) participated in a 10-minute discussion followed by the patient undergoing a 10-minute structured pain behavior task (SPBT). Spouse criticism/hostility perceived by patients and patient Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI) scores correlated significantly and positively with pain intensity during the SPBT, whereas perceived spouse hostility, patient BDI scores, and spouse trait hostility correlated significantly and positively with observed pain behaviors during the SPBT. Spouse criticism/hostility coded by raters from video recordings interacted significantly with patient BDI scores, such that observed spouse criticism/hostility was related significantly and positively with pain behaviors only for patients with high BDI scores. Patient sex interacted significantly with observed spouse criticism/hostility, such that observed spouse criticism/hostility was related significantly and positively with pain behaviors only for female patients. Results support the hypothesis that spouse criticism and hostility—actually expressed or perceived—may worsen CLBP patient symptoms. Further, women patients and patients high in depressive symptoms appeared most vulnerable to spouse criticism/hostility. Thus, negative marital communication patterns may be appropriate targets for intervention, especially among these 2 at risk groups.


This series contains monographs of lecture notes type, lecture course material, and high-quality proceedings on topics described by the term "computational science and engineering". This includes theoretical aspects of scientific computing such as mathematical modeling, optimization methods, discretization techniques, multiscale approaches, fast solution algorithms, parallelization, and visualization methods as well as the application of these approaches throughout the disciplines of biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, earth sciences, and economics.


Handbook of Mathematical Induction: Theory and Applications shows how to find and write proofs via mathematical induction. This comprehensive book covers the theory, the structure of the written proof, all standard exercises, and hundreds of application examples from nearly every area of mathematics. In the first part of the book, the author discusses different inductive techniques, including well-ordered sets, basic mathematical induction, strong induction, double induction, infinite descent, downward induction, and several variants. He then introduces ordinals and cardinals, transfinite induction, the axiom of choice, Zorns lemma, empirical induction, and fallacies and induction. He also explains how to write inductive proofs. The next part contains more than 750 exercises that highlight the levels of difficulty of an inductive proof, the variety of inductive techniques available, and the scope of results provable by mathematical induction. Each self-contained chapter in this section includes the necessary definitions, theory, and notation and covers a range of theorems and problems, from fundamental to very specialized. The final part presents either solutions or hints to the exercises. Slightly longer than what is found in most texts, these solutions provide complete details for every step of the problem-solving process.


Soil-water management by maintaining a shallow groundwater level (watertable) via a dual purpose subdrainage-subirrigation system, is becoming popular in humid regions of the United States and Canada. Controlled-drainage is an important mode of operation for this soil-water management system. Proper and timely control of subsurface drainage effluent can: (a) reduce the need for pumping subirrigation water, (b) prevent overdrainage of the soil profile for more efficient use of naturally occurring rainfall, and (c) reduce the duration of excess soil-water conditions in the root-zone caused by rainfall. This paper presents the results of computer simulations conducted for different water management system designs and for various controlled-watertable depths in the lower Mississippi Valley (LMV) region. Simulation models which have been previously validated from field data for the soils and climate conditions in the LMV region are used, such as DRAINMOD and an enhanced Boussinesq Equation based model which predicts watertable depth fluctuations at multiple modes from the drainline to midway between drains. The predicted potential ET and actual ET from the shallow controlled groundwater are presented for several scenarios. The application of these results in the design and operation of watertable control systems are discussed for the southern humid regions of the United States.


The study is concerned with an examination of outdoor recreation at
three forest recreation areas situated within and at the periphery of a
large and major population region in Peninsular Malaysia. It was
undertaken primarily to investigate the features that describe the use of
these areas and to estimate the use-demand and quantification of consumers'
surplus. Initially, a brief description of forest recreation in Peninsular
Malaysia is presented. This is followed by a review of techniques for
estimating consumers' surplus, after which it was concluded that an
application of the travel cost method was appropriate for this study. An
on-site questionnaire survey was used to gather a reasonable amount of user
information. The questionnaire surveys carried out were found to be
valuable; the information gathered facilitated the description and analysis
of the areas' consumption, travel and use patterns and the behaviour of the
users. Thus the surveys also provided information which was appropriate
for the application of the travel cost technique. Subsequently, a detailed
description of user behaviour is presented. Difficulties of the travel
cost approach, were identified and addressed through the use of appropriate
sample and extra-sample data. Particular attention was paid to the
problems of multi-purpose trips, travel time bias and the influence of
alternative sites on participation. Problems with functional forms and the
weighting of points for the trip demand model were also given considerable
attention. It is believed that the model selected in this study is an
improvement on previously known models. The resulting estimates of
consumers' surplus for the three areas are reasonably acceptable and
conform to a priori expectations. Finally, the main conclusions of the
thesis are highlighted and some aspects that have a bearing on planning and
management issues are discussed along with brief recommendations for
further and future research efforts.


Air temperature and precipitation are among the main factors for agricultural production. The aim of the present research work is to analyse changes in air temperature and precipitation in non-mountainous part of Southern Bulgaria in terms of the opportunities for the development of agriculture in the region. The trend in variability of seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation is determined by the linear regression method. An analysis of the combination between air temperature and precipitation gives a tool to classify the climate according to dry and wet conditions of the territory. For this purpose the Gaussen-Bagnouls classification method is used in the present paper. In terms of air temperature, the investigated area is favourable for growing thermophilic plants. In order to investigate thoroughly the impact of climate change, the quantitative research has been complemented by a qualitative study – case study of farmers from the region of Stara Zagora. Case studies show that farmers are vulnerable to various degrees to the expected annual variability and average changes in yields depending on farm size, crop varieties and availability of irrigation.


To these developing tourism destinations, the role of technology is becoming more influential, and technological initiatives are sometimes included as part of a tourism
development 'aid package' by many donors including the European Union (EU), World Bank and UNWTO. The outcomes of such aid projects have often dictated the development pace of individual countries' tourism industry. Sometimes the outcomes reflect the political and economic priorities and social requirements of the aid donor itself, and may not always meet the prime needs of the beneficiary country as a first requirement. Initial research shows that attempts to develop and implement IT into the developing countries of the Caribbean, as part of a regional aid funded tourism development project, have not been a total success.

The reasons for failure may vary from country to country, but this project shows there is a common thread running through the different projects; the human issues. These range from senior management's understanding of the mportance of technology, through the development, management and allocation of sufficient resources to a national tourism destination, to the use of technology and the empowerment of management and staff to implement the IT strategies.

The increasingly extensive use of dynamic IT in global tourism, by a labour force experienced in creative technology, has seen the introduction of new and dynamic technologies and associated operational system and management requirements. These require developing countries to cope with changing skills and organisational requirements that some cannot accomplish. As a result, they must change and adjust to new staff and skills, or the IT Implementation fails, from a technological point of view.

Respondents find that managing this dynamic change, even with the benefit of organisational systems and new staff, is a challenging task. From my fieldwork I found that some Directors of Tourism and senior managers feel pressured to choose between two managerial dimensions – rationalism and humanism. Collins and Porras (1994) propose that this is a trap for managers, as they may succumb to the 'tyranny of the or – managers can be either rationalistic or humanistic. However, I found that experienced senior managers harness what Collins and Porras call the 'genius of the and'. That is, they are not trapped by this polarity and have both mastered and utilised systems and married this with building a new organisation, retaining and training their key experienced staff to work with new technologies, recruiting new skills as the situation demands.

The paradox for the tourism industry is that, with experienced directors of tourism and senior managers being few in number and difficult to recruit, losing them risks damaging the organisational knowledge base and social framework. Ultimately, this damage influences the way in which new technologies are assimilated into the organisation, and how resources, both financial and human, are managed or mismanaged.

The key practical message for directors of tourism and senior managers involved in today's rapidly changing, technology-driven, tourism marketplace is this. It is essential for them to be more aware of the need to develop an organisation and skill base with the resources to
assimilate and use the new technology tools. Failure to recognise and practically support this vision will restrict the benefits of implementing tourism technologies, the achievement of business objectives, and the organisation's chance of competing in the global tourism marketplace.

As well as this project report, the full EU-funded CRSTDP Management Information System (MIS) Project Report (Phase 1 – Development and Phase 2 – Implementation) are submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement of Doctor of Professional Studies


Induction of stromelysin and collagenase mRNAs in response to phorbol myristate acetate (PMA) and autocrine factors (CAF) was compared in primary cultures of lapine synovial fibroblasts and an immortalized line of these cells known as HIG-82. In both cell types, message induction was quicker for CAF than for PMA. Appearance of both stromelysin and collagenase mRNAs occurred earlier in HIG-82 cells and, unlike primary cells, HIG-82 cells partially resisted inhibition by cycloheximide. To determine whether differences in AP-1 activity could account for these observations, the induction of c-fos and c-jun mRNAs was studied in conjunction with gel shift assays for AP-1 binding. Both inducers increased the abundance of c-fos mRNA, although the response was weaker in HIG-82 cells. However, the increase in c-jun mRNA was more marked in HIG-82 cells; furthermore, this increase was sustained for over 6 h. Gel shift assays confirmed that in both types of cells PMA and CAF increased AP-1 binding activity. In primary cells, this activity was sensitive to cycloheximide, but in HIG-82 cells, there was only partial sensitivity to cycloheximide. The gel shift analyses and data from experiments using an AP-1-CAT reporter construct revealed, in many cultures, constitutive AP-1 activity in the absence of stromelysin and collagenase expression, suggesting that AP-1 alone is insufficient for matrix metalloproteinase induction. Antisense oligonucleotides to c-fos and c-jun strongly inhibited the induction of stromelysin mRNA in primary cells treated with PMA, but was only weakly active against message induction in HIG-82 cells. In neither primary cells nor HIG-82 cells did antisense oligonucleotides strongly inhibit stromelysin induction in response to CAF. These data suggest there may exist an AP-1-independent route to message induction or that factors other than c-FOS and c-JUN may be used in certain circumstances. Western blot analyses detected no marked difference between HIG-82 cells and primary cells in their resting levels of c-FOS and c-JUN. Thus the differences reported here between HIG-82 cells and primary cells in their resting levels of c-FOS and c-JUN. Thus the differences reported here between HIG-82 cells and primary cells in the kinetics and cycloheximide sensitivity of MMP induction may reside in their abilities to modify posttranslationally the relevant transcription factors.


We propose an efficient method to generate white-box adversarial examples to trick a character-level neural classifier. We find that only a few manipulations are needed to greatly decrease the accuracy. Our method relies on an atomic flip operation, which swaps one token for another, based on the gradients of the one-hot input vectors. Due to efficiency of our method, we can perform adversarial training which makes the model more robust to attacks at test time. With the use of a few semantics-preserving constraints, we demonstrate that HotFlip can be adapted to attack a word-level classifier as well.


This paper presents the application of polynomial fitting techniques to eliminate the non-uniform heating effect and enhance the infrared (IR) image thermal contrast for infrared thermography (IRT) inspection. The raw thermal images acquired in IRT non-destructive evaluation (NDE) are usually corrupted by the non-uniform heating effect to some extent and suffer image degradation due to the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and low temperature contrast. Especially for carbon composites, anisotropic material properties and inhomogeneous densities make the IRT NDE job challenging. In order to obtain clear IR images and aid NDE inspectors in making quick, accurate, and reliable decisions, polynomial curve fitting and surface fitting techniques based on the least squares method are utilized to reconstruct the infrared thermal noise-free signal and estimate the non-uniform heating pattern, respectively. Then, the non-uniform heating effect will be eliminated by subtracting the estimated pattern from the corrupted IR image. The results obtained demonstrate that this applied method not only removes the non-uniform heating effect, but also greatly improves the image quality in IRT inspection. We believe this technique can make the defect evaluation process much easier and more accurate, and it has particular value in IRT defect diagnosis.


Professional development and support of residence hall staff is a particularly important issue as residence life staff seek to strengthen programs and retain personnel. Herr and Strange (1985) noted that "much research has focused on the student occupants of residence halls, but few empirical studies have addressed the functioning of professional staff members in those settings" (p. 12). A number of authors (e.g., Ambler, 1990; Dunkel & Schreiber, 1992; Evans, 1988) have identified the importance of professional development for student affairs professionals in general, and for student housing professionals in particular (Dunkel & Schreiber, 1992). However, a review of recent literature indicates a small number of articles dealing with residence hall staff—and, of these, only a handful focused on residence hall directors (RDs). Even in texts that cover residence life (e.g., DeCoster & Mable, 1974; Rentz & Saddlemire, 1988), discussions of RDs typically are limited to brief descriptions of their role, responsibilities, and supervisory relationships with RAs. Attention to the professional development needs of RDs does not seem to have increased significantly since Miller (1974) noted that "residence education programs probably do a far better job of implementing inservice programs for their paraprofessional members [IRAs] than they do for their professional staff [RDs]" (p. 166).


This study is a part of an ongoing research that attempts to explain the relationship between the teachers' instructional practise and students' learning in the context of functions and function inverses. The question in this paper is how the use of technology as a pedagogical tool may contribute to the understanding of the inverse function concept. An engineering student group (n =17) was taught functions and inverse functions with the assistance of GeoGebra. In our theoretical framework we apply Variation theory together with the theory of Concept image and Concept definition. The data were gathered by doing a pre and post test concerning inverse functions. Our experiment revealed that students' concept images in the post test were more developed compared with the results in the pre test.


This paper studies electrical impedance tomography (EIT) using Bayesian inference [1]. The resulting posterior distribution is sampled by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [2]. This paper studies a toy model of EIT as the one presented in [3], and focuses on efficient MCMC sampling for this model. First, this paper analyses the computation of forward map of EIT which is the bottleneck of each MCMC update. The forward map is computed by the finite element method [4]. Here its exact computation was conducted up to five times more efficient, by updating the Cholesky factor of the stiffness matrix [5]. Since the forward map computation takes up nearly all the CPU time in each MCMC update, the overall efficiency of MCMC algorithms can be improved almost to the same amount. The forward map can also be computed approximately by local linearisation, and this approximate computation is much more efficient than the exact one. Without loss of efficiency, this approximate computation is more accurate here, after a log transformation is introduced into the local linearisation process. Later on, this improvement of accuracy will play an important role when the approximate computation of forward map will be employed for devising efficient MCMC algorithms. Second, the paper presents two novel MCMC algorithms for sampling the posterior distribution in the toy model of EIT. The two algorithms are made within the 'multiple prior update' [6] and 'the delayed-acceptance Metropolis-Hastings' [7] schemes respectively. Both of them have MCMC proposals that are made of localized updates, so that the forward map computation in each MCMC update can be made efficient by updating the Cholesky factor of the stiffness matrix. Both algorithms' performances are compared to that of the standard single-site Metropolis [8], which is considered hard to surpass [3]. The algorithm of 'multiple prior update' is found to be six times more efficient, while 'the delayed-acceptance Metropolis-Hastings' with single-site update is at least twice more efficient.


Biocorrosion processes at metal surfaces are associated with microorganisms, or the products of their metabolic activities including enzymes, exopolymers, organic and inorganic acids, as well as volatile compounds such as ammonia or hydrogen sulfide. These can affect cathodic and/or anodic reactions, thus altering electrochemistry at the biofilm/metal interface. Various mechanisms of biocorrosion, reflecting the variety of physiological activities carried out by different types of microorganisms, are identified and recent insights into these mechanisms reviewed. Many modern investigations have centered on the microbially-influenced corrosion of ferrous and copper alloys and particular microorganisms of interest have been the sulfate-reducing bacteria and metal (especially manganese)-depositing bacteria. The importance of microbial consortia and the role of extracellular polymeric substances in biocorrosion are emphasized. The contribution to the study of biocorrosion of modern analytical techniques, such as atomic force microscopy, Auger electron, X-ray photoelectron and Mossbauer spectroscopy, attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and microsensors, is discussed.


Effective home support in dementia is key in delaying nursing home admission. However, home support is frequently not tailored to the individual needs of people with dementia. Staff allocating home support services may not identify important care needs, which only be recognised by informal carers. The purpose of this study was to explore the balance of informal and formal home support and their associated costs from the perspectives of both informal carers and paid staff. Five case vignettes of people with dementia were designed based on an existing English data set from a European study into transition into long-term care (the RightTimePlaceCare programme), representing 42 per cent of the English sample. In total, 14 informal carers and 14 paid staff were consulted in separate groups, as expert panels, regarding their recommendations for home care services for each vignette. Care recommendations of carers and staff were costed based on nationally available unit costs and compared. Informal carers allocated fewer hours of care than staff. Personal and domestic home care and day care centres were the most frequently recommended formal services by both groups, and some vignettes of people with dementia were recommended for care home admission. The ratio of costs of informal versus formal support was relatively equal for paid staff, yet unbalanced from the perspectives of informal carers with a greater proportion of formal care costs. Recommendations from this study can help shape dementia care to be more tailored to the individual needs of people with dementia and their carers.


This Article addresses communication within the "new normal" in legal education and law practice in which our audiences of LL.M. and J.D. students, clients, and jurors increasingly are diverse and multicultural. Communication with these audiences can be facilitated by using visual rhetorical techniques to apply a more universal language of communication through images, graphics, and diagrams to bridge gaps in communication caused by cultural and language barriers. This Article is the first to address the challenges presented by the growing population of non-native speakers of English with diverse cultural knowledge, history, and experience in law school and legal settings by looking to the growing body of scholarship on visual rhetoric, which draws from law and popular culture, cognitive studies and brain science, data visualization studies, and modern argument theory in rhetoric. The prevalence and ubiquitous growth of visual media in the world today, delivered across the globe through the pervasive vehicle of the internet, and combined with the technology to create, communicate, receive, and consume visual information, presents opportunities for legal educators and lawyers to use visual rhetorical devices to construct knowledge and understanding in their audiences, and ultimately, to persuade them of the truth and rightness of the communication. Therefore, this Article promotes improvement in the communication of law to language-challenged, culturally diverse audiences by use of the more universal language of visual rhetoric.


Many dolphin species around the world are found generally in coastal areas and may be affected by water parameters. Of particular attention are two species of dolphin inhabiting the Cowie Bay on the eastern coast of Sabah; the Indo-Pacific Humpback (Sousa chinensis) and Irrawaddy (Orcaella brevirostris) dolphins. The objective of this study is to determine effects of water parameters (sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and turbidity) on the behaviour (feeding, socializing and travelling) of the two dolphin species. A boatbased survey was conducted monthly from April 2008 to March 2009 (one year) during spring and neap tides. There were 47 surveys conducted for both species. Irrawaddy dolphins were found in 43 surveys (91.5%). The feeding and socializing behaviour of Irrawaddy dolphins were positively correlated with SST and negatively correlated with turbidity. None of the water parameters affected dolphins' travelling behaviour. The behaviour of the Irrawaddy dolphin was not correlated with salinity. Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins were found only in 41 surveys (87.2%) where its behaviour did not correlate with any water parameters. The socio-economic activities such as logging, agriculture and fisheries highly contribute to suspended sediment and also contribute to high water turbidity in the bay. These are possible causes for the changing of water parameters and may affect the food chain of vast marine life including dolphins. As a recommendation, those activities should be controlled and an the application of sustainable development practices in order to sustain the dolphin population in the bay.


A fine grid resolution model with realistic bathymetry was constructed to study the spatial and temporal structures of flow through the Taiwan Strait where observations are limited. The model covers an expanded domain that includes the entire East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as the region occupied by the Kuroshio. The fine-resolution model derives its open boundary conditions from a larger scale Western Pacific Ocean model. Two numerical weather products from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and one satellite observation-based wind set (QSCAT) are used to force the ocean model. Model experiments suggested that the best simulation is achieved when the model is driven by the QSCAT wind forcing. Several important features are reproduced in the model simulation. The volume transport is northward and largest in summer while minimal volume transport is southward and occurs in fall and winter. The general trend of volume transport is related to the seasonal reversal of monsoon winds. The present model also suggests that flow in the entire Taiwan Strait is to the southwest during periods of strong northeasterly wind. The annual average transport based on the present model is 1.09 Sv (1 Sv=10^6 m^3S^(-1)), which is smaller than most published values based on shipboard Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (sb-ADCP) observations. The result suggests that sb-ADCP observations are biased toward estimates in summer and fair weather since bad weather during the winter northeast monsoon often prevents seagoing observations.


The operation of traffic signal has evolved from fixed-time control to traffic-responsive control. The main difference between these two methods is the kind of traffic flow data used for signal timing optimisation. Various techniques have been developed in the literature for traffic-responsive signal control at isolated junctions: non-optimising methods and optimising methods, which differ in their use of detector data and the presence of an objective function. However, the optimising methods developed in previous studies were subject to various simplifications in respect of one or more rules of operation, in ways of interpreting the detector data, specifying the objective function, and making control decisions. In this study, a systematic approach is presented to develop an optimising method for use in dynamic signal control. Methods of this kind have two main parts: a traffic model and a dynamic optimiser. They are processed in alternating order; the dynamic optimiser provides signal timing plans to the traffic model, and subsequently the traffic model provides estimates of operational performance back to the dynamic optimiser. In this way, the dynamic optimiser makes control decisions, either to extend the current stage or to terminate it. The key feature in this approach is that a plan is developed for the entire lookahead period, but only the first part (one time-step) is implemented. In order to overcome the simplicity of the vertical queueing model, the concepts of kinematics in physics are applied to develop a novel traffic model (the KCS traffic model). Hence, it can be used to interpret detector outputs, and then to estimate three distinct components of delay (detection period delay, prediction period delay and terminal cost) that are used in the objective function. A stage-based exhaustive search method is integrated with the dynamic optimiser within a rolling- horizon formulation. This kind of search method will identify the best plan at that time for the objective in hand, though further arrivals may render that sub-optimal in the future. The lookahead period proposed here is the same for all streams, but varies according to the state of the dynamic optimiser. This optimising method is developed to be used together with various traffic models and objective functions. The formulation is presented on a stream-by-stream basis, so that it is applicable to a wide range of junction configurations. The performance of this optimising method was compared with existing control methods (System D Vehicle Actuated and fixed-time) by interfacing with the microscopic traffic simulator SIGSIM. The final results were presented in terms of the mean rate of delay with associated standard error to the number of runs. The results show that such a systematic approach can provide substantial improvements in the junction control performance and gives less delay than the existing methods.


The spatial organization of genes and chromosomes plays an important role in the regulation of several DNA processes. However, the principles and forces underlying this nonrandom organization are mostly unknown. Despite its small dimension, and thanks to new imaging and biochemical techniques, studies of the budding yeast nucleus have led to significant insights into chromosome arrangement and dynamics. The dynamic organization of the yeast genome during interphase argues for both the physical properties of the chromatin fiber and specific molecular interactions as drivers of nuclear order.


In this paper, we present a simple and efficient method for training deep neural networks in a semi-supervised setting where only a small portion of training data is labeled. We introduce self-ensembling, where we form a consensus prediction of the unknown labels using the outputs of the network-in-training on different epochs, and most importantly, under different regularization and input augmentation conditions. This ensemble prediction can be expected to be a better predictor for the unknown labels than the output of the network at the most recent training epoch, and can thus be used as a target for training. Using our method, we set new records for two standard semi-supervised learning benchmarks, reducing the (non-augmented) classification error rate from 18.44% to 7.05% in SVHN with 500 labels and from 18.63% to 16.55% in CIFAR-10 with 4000 labels, and further to 5.12% and 12.16% by enabling the standard augmentations. We additionally obtain a clear improvement in CIFAR-100 classification accuracy by using random images from the Tiny Images dataset as unlabeled extra inputs during training. Finally, we demonstrate good tolerance to incorrect labels.


The H4IIE rat hepatoma bioassay was used to measure 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxic equivalent concentrations (TECs) in livers of white sucker (Catostomus commersom) collected downstream from eight Ontario pulp mills and five reference sites. Subsamples of liver were also chemically analyzed for dioxins and furans. Bioassay-derived TECs were compared with TECs calculated from chemical residues using toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) specifically generated for the H4IIE cell line. This indicated that the bioassay-derived TECs could be accounted for largely by the additive effect of the dioxin and furan congeners. Seven of the eight examined mills had significantly higher TECs than the corresponding reference locations. The bioassay-derived TECs were highest at mills that used kraft pulping and chlorine bleaching. Although lower than the kraft mills, the thermomechanical (TMP) and sulfite mills also had higher TECs than the adjacent reference locations. The TECs were compared with hepatic 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity (EROD), as well as with concentrations of the plasma steroid hormones 17β-estradiol, 11-ketotestosterone, and testosterone. Significant correlations were found between EROD activity and TECs in both male and female white sucker. The correlation for males was stronger than that for females. Some of the variability in this relationship for females could be explained by a multivariate regression that added 17β-estradiol to the analysis; a strongly negative relationship between 17β-estradiol and EROD activity was superimposed on the positive EROD-TEC relationship. No significant correlations were found between TECs and 11-ketotestosterone in males, 17β-estradiol in females, and gonadosomatic indexes in either sex. There were significant negative correlations between TECs and testosterone in both sexes.


Human activities have caused widespread loss of biodiversity raising concern about the potential impact on ecosystem processes (flows of energy and materials). A large body of recent research has shown that as species are lost from ecosystems there is, generally, a minor impact on ecosystem processes, but that this impact increases disproportionately as species diversity declines. Functional complementarity among species, due to variation in the ecological niches they occupy, appears to be the main mechanism driving this pattern. Species diversity is also usually positively related to ecosystem stability, i.e. their variation through time and the resistance and resilience to perturbation. These findings are already powerful arguments for the conservation of biodiversity, though current research aims to increase their relevance to the real world by including a more extensive range of ecosystems and processes, realistic food web structures, realistic (nonrandom) extinction scenarios and larger spatial scales.

Keywords:

ecosystem functioning;
ecosystem stability;
species diversity;
conservation biology


Debo's classic work tells the tragic story of the spoliation of the Choctaw, Chickasaw, Cherokee, Creek, and Seminole nations at the turn of the last century in what is now the state of Oklahoma. After their earlier forced removal from traditional lands in the southeastern states--culminating in the devastating 'trail of tears' march of the Cherokees--these five so-called Civilized Tribes held federal land grants in perpetuity, or "as long as the waters run, as long as the grass grows." Yet after passage of the Dawes Act in 1887, the land was purchased back from the tribes, whose members were then systematically swindled out of their private parcels. The publication of Debo's book fundamentally changed the way historians viewed, and wrote about, American Indian history. Writers from Oliver LaFarge, who characterized it as "a work of art," to Vine Deloria, Jr., and Larry McMurtry acknowledge debts to Angie Debo. Fifty years after the book's publication, McMurtry praised Debo's work in the "New York Review of Books" "The reader," he wrote, "is pulled along by her strength of mind and power of sympathy." Because the book's findings implicated prominent state politicians and supporters of the University of Oklahoma, the university press there was forced to reject the book in .... for fear of libel suits and backlash against the university. Nonetheless, the director of the University of Oklahoma Press at the time, Joseph Brandt, invited Debo to publish her book with Princeton University Press, where he became director in 1938.