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Ghosts in the Machine
Do remote-control war pilots get combat stress?
Is it easier to kill people far away, through a video screen, than to kill them up close?
Three weeks ago, I raised that question about a system for controlling unmanned military aircraft. The system, made by Raytheon, looks and feels like a video game but operates real drones. From a console in the United States, you hunt and kill people in Iraq or Afghanistan. Will the drone pilots of tomorrow—kids who have grown up on PlayStations—feel the mortal gravity of what they're doing? Have we made killing too easy?
No, says a new report from the Associated Press. The story, published in newspapers across the country, is headlined, "Remote-control warriors suffer war stress." It begins: "The Air National Guardsmen who operate Predator drones over Iraq via remote control, launching deadly missile attacks from the safety of Southern California 7,000 miles away, are suffering some of the same psychological stresses as their comrades on the battlefield."
How could drone piloting cause the same stress as being in combat? The AP reporter, Scott Lindlaw, offers several reasons. One is that drone pilots work longer shifts and tours than pilots in the war zone. Another is the daily "whiplash transition" between being a console killer and being a soccer dad. "They're putting a missile down somebody's chimney and taking out bad guys, and the next thing they're taking their wife out to dinner, their kids to school," says an Air Force officer.
A third reason is that unmanned aircraft, unlike manned ones, are often assigned to remain over the target and assess the damage. "When you come in at 500-600 mph, drop a 500-pound bomb and then fly away, you don't see what happens," a wing commander explains. But when you fire a drone missile, "you watch it all the way to impact." Furthermore, Lindlaw notes, the video in a drone console, unlike the view from a traditional plane, shows the resulting fatalities "in high-resolution detail."
These are all intriguing factors. They might well explain why drone pilots suffer the same stress as battlefield combatants—or even more. But despite these factors, Lindlaw's evidence indicates that, in fact, drone pilots don't suffer the same degree of stress.
To the military's credit, Lindlaw finds that bases in four states have brought in chaplains to counsel drone pilots. One has even "enlisted the services of psychologists and psychiatrists to help ease the mental strain." The only thing in short supply seems to be the mental strain itself. "In interviews with five of the dozens of pilots and sensor operators at the various bases, none said they had been particularly troubled by their mission," Lindlaw reports.
"Col. Gregg Davies, commander of the 214th Reconnaissance Group in Tucson, Ariz., said he knows of no member of his team who has experienced any trauma from launching a Predator attack," Lindlaw writes. The only quantifiable impact he can find comes from Col. Chris Chambliss, a commander at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada: "On four or five occasions, [drone] sensor operators have sought out a chaplain or supervisor after an attack, Chambliss said. He emphasized that the number of such cases is very small compared to the number of people involved in Predator operations."
Compare this weak, absent, or asymptomatic evidence to the data on post-traumatic stress disorder among Air Force personnel overall. Last year, 871 airmen were diagnosed with PTSD. And that's the lowest score among the armed services. Eighteen to 30 percent of all military personnel are estimated to have developed symptoms of PTSD or depression.
The AP story is notable for documenting the very existence of mental stress among drone pilots. It shows that operating a real hunter, killer, or spy aircraft from the faraway safety of a game-style console affects some operators in a way that video games don't. But it doesn't show that firing a missile from a console feels like being there—or that it haunts the triggerman the same way. Indeed, the paucity of evidence—despite the brutal work shifts, the superior video quality, and the additional burden of watching the target take the hit—suggests that it feels quite different.
My guess is that the difference lies in the remaining factor cited in the story: the "whiplash transition" between the physical world of your family and the virtual world of your faraway drone. Living in the console for a full work shift, with your country's missions, assets, and personnel at stake, is more intense than playing Halo. Walking out of the room and trying to resume your physical life is disorienting. But these factors can't match the stress of physical presence in combat. The point of the drone, after all, is to insulate you.
Lindlaw's reporting doesn't settle the question either way. But he's on the right track. The armed forces should monitor drone operators systematically and track the effects of living in this whiplash world, where you kill on a video screen and then go home to your spouse and kids. Human nature has never been tested in such alternating semi-virtual reality. We may well discover that it combines the worst of all three worlds: the stress of missions, the desensitization of video gaming, and the whiplash of transitioning between physical and synthetic environments.
The wing leaders who supervise drone operations regard mission stress as the main hazard. They worry about sensor operators, who guide the missiles to their targets and are often, as Lindlaw points out, "on their first assignment and just 18 or 19 years old." They fear that the on-screen killing will rattle these kids. Maybe they're right. My fear is that it won't.


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Bonus Rounds
By River Huston
January 20, 2012
Every morning I feel so fortunate to wake up to another day. I have been calling this time of my life the "bonus rounds," and they are. I live by the sea in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, in an amazing house right on the ocean.
It is not for everyone because living here is not at all like taking a vacation here. It is a little rough and tumble. For instance, the other night as I slept I felt something warm and alive plop on my head in the dark. I slowly got up hoping it was not a tarantula. It turned out to be a confused bat (what happened to that sonar radar, bat?). I untangled said bat from my hair and then spent the next 15 minutes coaxing him out of my house. All in a day of living in the jungle where there are car-sized potholes and Kmart is the big shopping experience -- outside of the tourist center, which mainly peddles diamonds, rum and flowered muumuus.
Regardless, I have found myself an odd cast of characters to keep me entertained -- so much better than TV, and interactive as well! I paint at a non-profit gallery I run, sevenminusseven, and I write.
Recently I wrote a book, SEXED: Tales of a Textrix, which includes all the questions I received in 2010 and 2011 on sex, love and relationships along with the answers; and the last few days I have worked on getting all my poetry books on Amazon. That is what motivated me to write this blog: gratitude.
After reading my biographical poetry I am so grateful to have survived. Most people do not survive the kind of life I have led which included addiction, multiple rapes and assaults, homelessness, jail, depression, attempted suicide, AIDS, as well as another terminal bone marrow disease. The list goes on and as I read and edited my work, sometimes with tears remembering all the people I have lost over the past two decades, all I can think was how did I get so lucky? Some people called it blessed. I just feel it is a privilege to not just be alive, but have found some happiness and contentment in my life. There is very little I want, need or desire; wow, lucky me.
Here are some links to the poetry that chronicles my life. It will surely make you appreciate the day!
Wishing you all a great New Year. Be good to yourself and go for your dreams.
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A River Runs Through It
River Huston
River Huston is an award-winning poet, journalist, performer and activist. She travels through the United States speaking on issues related to sexuality, communication, overcoming challenges and change. She has been featured on Good Morning America, Showtime, Nightline, CNN and ABC Up To The Minute. River has written three books of poetry as well as The Goddess: A Guide to Feminine Wisdom and A Positive Life: Portraits of Women Living With HIV. She wrote and performed a one-woman show, Sex, Cellulite and Large Farm Equipment: One Girls Guide to Living and Dying off off Broadway and is currently working on a second show, The Dominatrix Next Door. For more information about River you can go to riverhuston.com.
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Recent Posts:
October 14, 2016 - On Being Sick: A Blog Entry by River Huston
March 26, 2016 - Loving Myself Too Much to Accept Stigmatized 'Love': A Blog Entry by River Huston
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March 20, 2013 - India: A Blog Entry by River Huston
February 1, 2013 - Does HIV Still Bother Me, After 22 Years? A Blog Entry by River Huston
Articles by River:
Sex, Cellulite and Large Farm Equipment: One Girl's Guide to Living and Dying (October 15, 2008)
I Feel Good! Attaining Survival Through Illness (March/April 2008)
Goddess in a Muumuu: AIDS Changes Sexual Self-Image (December 1999)
A Positive Life: Portraits of Women Living With HIV (October 1999)
Interviews With River:
White Women and HIV (April 1999)
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subset: commoncrawl


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Anna Fetsch Felix, who grew up in Stockton and played in a duet (Duo Concertante) with her father, Wolfgang Fetsch, now is concertmaster of the Gold Country Chamber Orchestra.
Anna Fetsch Felix, who grew up in Stockton and played in a duet (Duo Concertante) with her father, Wolfgang Fetsch, now is concertmaster of the Gold Country Chamber Orchestra. She also plays violin with most of the other Sacramento-area classical groups as well. Her trio includes Curtis Kidwell (oboe) and pianist John Cozza. Their Viva Espa�a! concert includes selections by Asturius Albaniz, Rudy Perez and Enrique Costanzo Campina. 7 p.m. The Haggin Museum, 1201 N. Pershing Ave., Stockton. $5-$8. (209) 940-6300.
Music: Simon Rowe Organ Group
Simon Rowe, director of UOP's Brubeck Institute, jazzes it up on organ. Patrick Langham (saxophone), Nick Fryer (guitar) and Brian Kendrick (drums) join him. 7 p.m. Take 5 Jazz at the Brew, 157 W. Adams St., Stockton. $10; $5, students. (209) 464-2739.
Dance: "The Great Gatsby"
F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel is interpreted in a premiere choreographed by Ron Cunningham. 7:30 p.m.; also 7:30 p.m. Sat.; 2 p.m. Sun. Sacramento Community Center Theatre, 1301 L St., Sacramento. $19-$70. (916) 808-5181.
Music: Frank Wiens
Wiens, a piano professor at University of the Pacific, devotes this performance to 15 compositions by Edvard Grieg (1843-1907), whose life, work and prominent role in Norway's history Wiens researched during a 2012 sabbatical leave. He'll also play Grieg's Piano Sonata in E Minor, which Wiens has performed frequently and considers one of the most broadly appealing piano concertos in the classical-music canon. 7:30 p.m. Faye Spanos Concert Hall, University of the Pacific. $5-$8. (209) 943-2415.
Theater: "That's Improv!"
In the second production by That's Showbiz, a theater formed in 2012, eight actors improvise. 7:30 p.m.; also 7:30 p.m. Sat. 1744 Pacific Ave., Stockton. $10-$15. (209) 938-0447.
Theater: "Fences"
In August Wilson's Pulitzer Prize-winning drama, a Pittsburgh, family contends with the struggles - and occasional humor - faced during the civil rights movement. 7 p.m.; also 7 p.m. Sat.; 2 p.m. Sun. Stage 3 Theatre, 208 S. Green St., Sonora. $12-$22. (209) 536-1778.
Music: Jeri Sager
An experienced Broadway singer and actor, this is Sager's one-woman show - "Broadway by Jeri: Live" - that covers the theater music she's been performing during a 24-year career. Her 18-song show includes "Memory," from her most prominent role - as Grizabella in "Cats" - and "I Dreamed a Dream," which she sang as Fantine in "Les Miserables." Jager intersperses stories about her life and career, accompanied by San Francisco pianist Carl Pantle. 7 p.m. Grand Center Theatre for the Arts, 715 Central Ave., Tracy. $25-$65. (209) 831-6858.
Music: Dirk Hamilton
One of the original regulars at the former Blackwater Cafe, singer-songwriter Hamilton crosses Yosemite Street for this acoustic show. 7 p.m. Yosemite Meat Market, 915 N. Yosemite St., Stockton. $15. (209) 466-7357.
Music: Juke Joint Jimmy
James Bond Haydon, Betsy Haydon Cathcart and Tom Haydon - calling themselves the Low Profile - play rootsy blues, rock and original tunes. 7 p.m. First Unitarian Universalist Church, 2737 Pacific Ave., Stockton. $10. (209) 466-7743.
Music: Stockton Symphony
The orchestra's annual Valentine Pops concerts feature three of the touring Broadway Tenors: David Burnham, Lewis Cleale and John Cudia. They'll sing 20 suitably romantic songs, including tunes from "Chicago," "The Lion King," "The King and I," "The Secret Garden," "Jersey Boys," "Phantom of the Opera" and "Threepenny Opera." Peter Jaffe conducts the orchestra through a "West Side Story" medley, "Night Music Waltz," from "A Little Night Music" and "That's Entertainment." 2:30 p.m. Sun.; also 6 p.m. Sat. Atherton Auditorium, San Joaquin Delta College. $22-$60. (209) 951-0196.
Music: Pacific Choral Ensembles
University of the Pacific's A Cappella Optimists, University Chorus, Oriana and Pacific Singers perform a varied program. 2:30 p.m. Sun. Faye Spanos Concert Hall, Pacific. $5-$8. (209) 943-2415.
Event: Wine & Chocolate Weekend
This 16th annual Valentine's Day-themed event includes vintages from 40 Lodi-area wineries, complemented by chocolates. 11 a.m.-4 p.m. Sun.; also 11 a.m.-4 p.m. Sat. Various wineries. $45-$55. (209) 365-0621.


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We find deals from the very best ecommerce sites in South Africe, then list them together in one place, saving you time AND money.
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Surround yourself with beauty and tranquillity at Blue Gum Country Estate for only R699. Enjoy a getaway for 2, incl breakfast, local cheese platter AND bottle of local wine (value R1650)
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Ticket for the Color Run Cape Town – 10 November 2018
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Northern Cape: 1 or 2-Night Anytime Stay for up to Four at New Holme Karoo Guest Farm
Country Cottages at Killarney Trout Farm: A 2 Night Stay for 2 People in a Self-Catering Cottage at only R799!
Up to 3-Hour Gaming Session at PlayEZ ESports
4-Hour Scuba Experience at Cape Town Dive Centre
Cape Town: 1 or 2-Night Anytime Stay for Two Including Breakfast at Beta Beach Guest House
Chocolate Flower Craft Classes for Two with Ready Set Cake


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Director, Circa Architecture
Robert Morris-Nunn is regarded as one of Tasmania's most adventurous architects. He has practised in Tasmania for over 25 years, and has taken a special interest in the social impact of architecture and collaborative design processes. The basic thrust of his work has been to explore new approaches towards a more enlightened, socially humane architecture. Several of his ground breaking buildings have received considerable international interest, most recently in the field of ecologically sustainable design, where the Forest Eco Centre attracted critical acclaim from diverse sources both here and in the US and Europe. More recently the IXL Redevelopment and Saffire have also achieved significant international exposure. He has won over 40 state and 3 national architectural awards, his work has been illustrated in international publications and he has been invited to lecture at many Australian and international conferences about his work. He was recently given the President's Prize for his contribution to architecture in Australia and has been appointed as Adjunct Professor at the School of Architecture, University of Tasmania.


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- September 15: GM Recalls Vehicles 2nd Time For Loose Brake Pedals recalls | 3 days ago
- September 14: Chevy Equinox Ecotec Engine Lawsuit Filed Over Oil Consumption news | 4 days ago
- September 13: GM Recalls 1 Million Trucks and SUVs For Power Steering Problems recalls | 5 days ago
- September 12: GM Recalls 230,000 Vehicles For Brake Caliper Pistons recalls | 6 days ago
- September 8: GM Side Blind Zone Alert Lawsuit Argued in Court news | 10 days ago
NHTSA — Equipment Adaptive Problems
CarComplaints.com Notes: The 2007 Cobalt inherited most of the problems from the 2005 and 2006 model years, but toned them down (a bit). Sure, the power steering still fails and the car has a chance of going up in flames due to a cracked fuel tank, but it's not as prevalent as the older models. At least not yet.
In 2012, the Cobalt was recalled for gas tank fires but only for owners in certain states.
Then in 2014, the 2007 Cobalt was part of a massive GM recall due to a defective ignition switch that could cause the airbags to not deploy during an accident. The problem led to 13 deaths, government investigations and multiple class-action lawsuits.
2.2hardly worth mentioning
- Crashes / Fires:
- 0 / 0
- Injuries / Deaths:
- 0 / 0
- Average Mileage:
- 70,385 miles
About These NHTSA Complaints:
This data is from the NHTSA — the US gov't agency tasked with vehicle safety. Complaints are spread across multiple & redundant categories, & are not organized by problem.
So how do you find out what problems are occurring? For this NHTSA complaint data, the only way is to read through the comments below. Any duplicates or errors? It's not us.
accessories - interior problem


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Russian prez launches YouTube channel
Turn on, Kremlin, tune out
Joining the Pope, Barack Obama, Gordon Brown, and five billion teenagers lip-syncing to terrible pop music, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has launched his own channel on YouTube to reach a more youthful audience.
YouTube's 'all Kremlin, all the time' channel rollout comes at the same time as Russia's nationwide "Knowledge Day" and the start of a new academic year. Medvedev's first video congratulates students on returning to school and urges ethnic harmony amongst the country's diverse population. (You can watch an English-language translation of the video here, via Russia Today.)
Never feed a Kremlin video after midnight
"YouTube is very popular, and we hope to increase our audience through it not only by reaching out to the users of the Russian segment of the Internet but also the Russian-speaking Internet users in other countries," a Kremlin spokeswoman told the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS.
While Medvedev's patriotic address to school-aged tots is one of just a handful of videos available on the site now, the Kremlin plans to upload more original public messages from Medvedev as well as clips of his speeches. ®


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Metallica's Lars Ulrich Responds To Criticism From Mogwai: 'Huh? What? Who Are You?'
A few days ago, an interview with Scottish post-rock act Mogwai made waves online due to the band's criticism of Metallica. Drummer Lars Ulrich was targeted personally by Mogwai's Barry Burns, who called the Metallica member "unbelievably bad" and "terrible." After Mogwai's comments reached Ulrich, the drummer took some time to share his thoughts on the verbal attack.
Metallica and Mogwai are scheduled to perform on different stages simultaneously during this year's Glastonbury Festival. Perhaps through frustration from having to compete with metal's biggest band, Mogwai shot a few bullets Metallica's way during an interview with Gigwise.
In other Glastonbury news, a petition has been started to kick Metallica off the festival due to frontman James Hetfield's involvement with the upcoming History Channel program 'The Hunt,' which documents the Alaskan hunting of Kodiak brown bears.
Speaking to Metal Hammer, Lars Ulrich addressed both issues. "Glastonbury — it's like the Holy Grail in England, and obviously we're respectful to that. But if somebody sits there and talks about petitions or what some other guy says, there's a point where it sort of becomes ridiculous."
Ulrich continues, "We're fairly thick-skinned and just kind of turn a blind eye to it, but obviously, if [it's] Mick Jagger [of The Rolling Stones] has something to say, or Alex Turner [of Arctic Monkeys], or the very nice guys in Kasabian, who I love, it's cool. But at some point, if some guy in some other band… it's like, 'Huh? What? Who are you?' At some point it becomes a little bit ridiculous."
The 2014 Glastonbury Festival will take place from June 25-29. For more info, click here.
See the 30 Worst Rock Tattoos, Including Awful Metallica Ink:


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The first time I actually got to interact with a computer was in high school. Computers were quite exotic at the time, and it was only because ours was a "magnet school" that we had such resources. I started on the Altair Time Sharing Basic version of the Altair 8800 talking to serial terminals at 300 baud (Other students later upped that to 9600):
Ours did not have the front panel switches and LEDs but did have an 8 inch floppy drive in a separate enclosure about the size of a modern mid tower on its side. We also had a DECwriter hard copy terminal, some old teletypes, which were also connected. One of the teletypes had a punch tape reader/writer. We also had a section of core memory. But that was just sitting on a shelf collecting dust.
There was a Data General Nova, mentioned in the Widipedia article, upstairs. But it was nonfunctional.
Our school also had 2 TRS-80s. One in the physics lab and one in one of the math classrooms which sort of doubled as a computer science classroom.
Kids today, brought up on the Internet, have no conception of how things were in the late 70s and very early 80's. Of being 16 years old before touching a computer for the first time, and feeling privileged to do so at so young an age.
Alas, if IBM found a bug in Z/OS which had gone undetected since the advent of OS/360 it would not quite predate me.
Edited 2008-05-11 18:47 UTC


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This is my second blog and have changed it to reviews corner of some IT gadgets (which might be dreams of anyone). Gadgets include mobilephones, mp3 players, notebooks, printers, etc...
Also, I will be including stuffs & decos for ur 4-wheels vehicle. Oh yeah~ my latest hobby.
Stay tune here, if you are fanatics of these.
To view the blog, simply click on the wordings.
That's all~
A music lover who can't survive w/o music.
A total K-dramas & animes addict.
A IT gadget fanatic!
A photography enthusiast, macro & nature lover.
"Hi! Everyone is welcome to leave a msg,
despite I will be slow in replying, or might not reply. But still,
just tag anything u would like to tell me,
or bullshit here. It's okai with me."
Dreaming @ 9:39 AM
Special Thanks To:-
DeviantArt (Brushes)
Portable Sony Playstation.
Nintendo DS.
Brave Story: New Traveler.
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games.
Metal Slug Anthology.
Paintshop Pro
Brought To You By:-


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Prince Charles News
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Prince Charles news is powered by NewsRank ®
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A fresh start and new beginnings,
promise to start the New Year off on a happy, positive note.
With a perfect temperature of 27 degrees and not a breath of wind,
I am looking forward to a seafood extravaganza on the deck.
As the sun goes down
we'll watch the lights of the fun fair and the town twinkle in the distance
then at midnight there will be fireworks over the ocean.
A simple evening in a perfect setting.
I wish everyone a happy and fun filled 2014.
May all your dreams come true!


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The act of slipping in and out of an undeserved, overpaid, cronie-appointed job, for which the person has no qualifications, in the middle of the night, so that others don't notice.
"That do-nothing, overpaid janitor failed to show up for work tonight...I guess he's 'Van Jonesin' it."
by The_Word_Baker_Lives September 08, 2009
buy the domain for your cat vlog


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Hi Manoj, Use the library examples to help making you code work. When it is working - try serialization using mutex locking. Olga. -----Original Message----- From: firstname.lastname@example.com [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.com] Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 11:20 AM To: Antropova, Olga A. Cc: Daniel Stenberg; firstname.lastname@example.com Subject: RE: using threads in libwww Hi, Thanks for the information. Further, can you provide some example code on the lines of the approach you have followed in your product. To start with serailizing libwww accesses would be of good value. My problems is still very basic wrt threading. I can't invoke libwww APIs on even one thread. I get connect () error in HTTCP.c in following line: HTTRACE(PROT_TRACE, "HTHost %p going to state TCP_ERROR.\n" _ host); Why is this so? Thanks in anticipation, Manoj "Antropova, Olga A." <email@example.com> on 10/08/2002 09:46:18 PM To: Manoj Nautiyal/HSS@HSS, Daniel Stenberg <firstname.lastname@example.com> cc: firstname.lastname@example.com Subject: RE: using threads in libwww In our product we are using libwww in multithreaded environment but we are locking all libwww accesses so serializing those. The wwwlib is NOT thread safe. That is the simplest approach to handle libwww in multithreaded invironment. Libww supports concurrent requests processing though. One can take advantage of that starting the libwww in the separate thread and then communicating the other threads requests to it. The library thread will be then processing request in the concurrent facion and when processing of the request is finised it would notify the threads waiting on the responses that the job is done. Thanks, Olga. -----Original Message----- From: email@example.com [mailto:email@example.com] Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 10:57 AM To: Daniel Stenberg Cc: firstname.lastname@example.com Subject: Re: using threads in libwww Hi, Is this possible in libwww, as we are also using libww for RDF parsing. So we can't get away with this to new one right now. So far I've about known from libww mailing lists that even in multithreading the requests have to be serialized among the threads. Hence from a single multithreaded application the effect would not be better than as done in a single threaded (virtually no threads) application. But my problem is by creating a thread and posting data to server on this thread is not working. why? Thanks, Manoj Daniel Stenberg <firstname.lastname@example.com> on 10/08/2002 09:09:50 PM To: Manoj Nautiyal/HSS@HSS cc: email@example.com Subject: Re: using threads in libwww On Tue, 8 Oct 2002 email@example.com wrote: > Please advise how can I get the post successful using thread? I realize this is not strictly speaking an answer to your question, but for most people this would be more easier done using libcurl (http://curl.haxx.se/libcurl/), which also happens to be thread-safe and requires less code for the same result. libcurl does not offer a full libwww replacement. It is fairly lightweight in comparison. Then again I'm biased, I'm the main author of libcurl. I'll go back and hide again now. -- Daniel Stenberg - http://daniel.haxx.se - +46-705-44 31 77 ech`echo xiun|tr nu oc|sed 'sx\([sx]\)\([xoi]\)xo un\2\1 is xg'`olReceived on Tuesday, 8 October 2002 13:10:29 UTC
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.3.1 : Tuesday, 6 January 2015 21:33:55 UTC


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MRS Research Group adds"Global Industrial Air Filtration Market 2016 Share,Size,Trends and Forecast to 2022 Market Research Report"reports to its database.
Global Industrial Air Filtration market report is sole collaboration of the data and market research methodology to gain highest performance.Our research team has put immense efforts to make it better to understand. The report global Industrial Air Filtration market represents recent developments, technology, raw material, restraints and opportunities in the market.Market information will includes demanding sector and opportunities, challenges and future trends.We offer our reports to small, medium and big organization.We gather information from multi-dimensional sources like primary, secondary and direct sources.
We provide an expert's knowledge to the client which offer solution to the client specific needs.We explore recent technology and R&D to resolve complex problems of the client.Our team is accompanied with analyst, research team, talented expert and which serves you world's best report.It keeps belief to retain customers by providing them comprehensive analysis about market attractiveness, future forecast, recent trends and its competitors.This report offers you accurate and authentic first hand information on market that will help user to plan the organization's actions in future.The report will provide you deep knowledge of historical information, market drivers and related parameters of the market.
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The report includes accurate and sharp information on global market which allow you to take proper decision.It handles numerous reports on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, food and beverages etc.The 'Global Industrial Air Filtration Industry, 2016-2022 Market Research Report' is starts with definition, application, products, technology and others.It includes major players of the market, company profile, installed capacity, competitor's strategies and others.The report will allow you to understand easily with schematic diagrams and statically data.It also represents supply and demand, production capacity, import and export and many more.Further it covers points segments on the basis of products, types, application; end users, geography whichever applicable for the competitive landscape analysis.
The machinery industry produces products which are useful for industry, consumers and other industries. This machine industry traditionally was includes heavy machines. Nowadays, not only small companies but also household consumer use machine for their production. The machine industry manufactures number of products range from power tools, different types of machines and domestic technology to factory equipment etc. Raising demand of the machine in industrial and manufacturing sector from to auto making to packaging will leads to drive market.
Table of Content (Index) :
1 Industry Overview
1.1 Definition and Specifications
1.1.1 Definition
1.1.2 Specifications
1.2 Classification
1.3 Applications
1.3.1 Heating
1.3.2 Air conditioning
1.3.3 Refrigeration
1.3.4 Industrial applications
1.4 Industry Chain Structure
1.5 Industry Overview and Major Regions Status
1.5.1 Industry Overview
1.5.2 Global Major Regions Status
1.6 Industry Policy Analysis
1.7 Industry News Analysis
2 Manufacturing Cost Structure Analysis
2.1 Raw Material Suppliers and Price Analysis
2.2 Equipment Suppliers and Price Analysis
2.3 Labor Cost Analysis
2.4 Other Costs Analysis
2.5 Manufacturing Cost Structure Analysis
2.6 Manufacturing Process Analysis
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L'italiano senza confini | Anne Cummings, Chiara Frenquellucci, Gloria Pastorino
© 2016
Immagina, 2nd Edition
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Used 2008 Toyota Yaris Review
The 2008 Toyota Yaris broadens it lineup and appeal with a new sport liftback, but still faces tough competition from other worthy rivals in the crowded subcompact segment.
what's new
vehicle overview
The subcompact economy class has traditionally been characterized by products that could be summed up in a single word: cheap. As in, cheap price, cheap design, cheap materials and cheap construction. And while that's still true in a relative sense, today's highly competitive marketplace has forced the low end of the automotive spectrum to evolve along with the rest of the industry in terms of quality standards, feature content and overall bang for the buck. For proof of this, look no further than the 2008 Toyota Yaris.
Introduced last year, the Yaris replaced the mediocre and oddly proportioned Echo as the least expensive offering in Toyota's showroom. For the budget-conscious shopper, it's a much better product all the way around -- one that combines attractive styling and outstanding fuel economy with competitive equipment levels, respectable performance and a general likability that was lacking in its predecessor.
The Yaris is available as a spunky three-door hatchback coupe (liftback in Toyota-speak) or a much longer and roomier four-door sedan with more conservative styling. These body styles are further differentiated inside by distinctive instrument panels and an available multifunction rear seat in the liftback that slides, reclines and folds to make up for its tighter rear quarters. For 2008, the littlest Toyota broadens its appeal further with a sporty new "S" hatchback to complement the existing uplevel S sedan. This model features larger 15-inch wheels, body-color front and rear spoilers, reworked rocker panels, amber-illuminated Optitron instrumentation, upgraded seats with sport fabric, leather-wrapped steering wheel and shift knob, a CD player with MP3 capability and other extras.
Considering its entry-level nature, the Yaris has a lot going for it. In addition to excellent fuel economy, which counts for a lot in this segment, the Yaris reflects Toyota-style quality and is a competent performer that's stylish enough to avoid embarrassment when you leave it with the parking attendant (although don't expect it to be parked out front).
As decent as the 2008 Toyota Yaris is, however, there are several other subcompacts that deserve your attention. The Chevy Aveo and Kia Rio offer similar body style choices at slightly lower price tags, while the Nissan Versa and Honda Fit are desirable alternatives at a slightly higher price. Another choice to consider is the Yaris-based all-new Scion xD (replacing the xA), which should appeal to more youthful buyers seeking funky styling, vehicle customization and high-tech stereo options.
Although the Fit and xD are our top choices in the segment, they are available only as four-door hatchbacks, a body style Americans generally consider the absolute embodiment of undesirable transportation. That leaves the Yaris as a leading choice for those buyers who prioritize getting into a new sedan for the cheapest price possible. And while that price may be cheap, the Yaris goes to show that cheap doesn't have to be a bad thing.
trim levels & features
The 2008 Toyota Yaris subcompact is offered as a three-door hatchback coupe (dubbed liftback) or four-door sedan in two trim levels. Standard models are pretty basic, with 14-inch steel wheels, intermittent windshield wipers, air-conditioning, four-way adjustable front seats and a tilt steering wheel. S-trim equipment levels vary between coupes and sedans, but share 15-inch steel wheels, a ground-effects body kit and a CD/MP3 stereo with an auxiliary audio jack. Many model-specific package upgrades are available and include items like 15-inch alloy wheels, powered accessories, cruise control (sedan only), 60/40-split-folding rear seat (sedan), a sliding and reclining rear seat (liftback), a rear window defroster and upgraded interior trim. Remote keyless entry, foglamps and a rear spoiler are also offered as stand-alone factory options on all models. A full range of Toyota accessories are available to further personalize the Yaris.
performance & mpg
All Toyota Yaris models are equipped with a 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine that produces 106 horsepower and 103 pound-feet of torque. Power is transmitted to the front wheels through a standard five-speed manual or an optional four-speed automatic transmission. The Yaris accelerates adequately with the manual gearbox, but off-the-line performance feels sluggish with the automatic. EPA-estimated fuel economy with the manual transmission checks in at 29 mpg city and 36 mpg highway (35 mpg highway with the automatic). These figures are among the best found in the economy car segment.
As you might expect given its entry-level price tag, popular safety features like antilock brakes, front seat-mounted side airbags and side curtain airbags are optional on the Yaris. In government crash testing, the 2008 Toyota Yaris sedan earned four stars out of five for front occupant protection during frontal impacts. In side impacts without the optional airbag package, it received a middle-of-the-road three-star rating for front and rear occupants. The liftback model outperformed the sedan in frontal impact testing by scoring a perfect five stars for driver protection. In Insurance Institute for Highway Safety tests, the Yaris earned the highest possible rating of "Good" for frontal-offset collisions. Side-impact testing also yielded a "Good" rating with the optional side airbags, but the lowest "Poor" score without.
The 2008 Toyota Yaris travels down the road with a reasonably solid feel. The electric power steering is mostly devoid of feel, but its super-light touch makes maneuvering easy. The Yaris' small four-cylinder engine is surprisingly peppy with the manual transmission, and reasonably smooth even when operating at higher speeds. Off-the-line acceleration suffers with the automatic transmission, but both combinations deliver enough midrange power for confident merging and passing on the highway.
With 3 more inches of wheelbase and nearly 20 additional inches of overall length compared to the hatchback, the Yaris sedan is a space-efficient and reasonably roomy choice among subcompacts. As you might expect, the sedan is the more conservatively styled of the two, both inside and out. The hatchback offers optional sliding and reclining rear seats that add versatility and help compensate for its more restrictive backseat space.
Though both models feature centrally located instrumentation, the hatchback's dashboard is quite a bit different from the one found in the sedan and contains three gloveboxes -- including one uniquely positioned behind the steering wheel -- plus an unusually narrow center stack that coordinates well with its more playful exterior design.
The interior is not without its foibles. Those center-mounted instruments pull your eyes away from the road, while tall drivers will find the driving position akin to sitting atop a stool. Also, the tilt steering wheel cheaply drops like a 4-ton anchor when its lever is released.
edmunds expert review process
This review was written by a member of Edmunds' editorial team of expert car reviewers. Our team drives every car you can buy. We put the vehicles through rigorous testing, evaluating how they drive and comparing them in detail to their competitors.
We're also regular people like you, so we pay attention to all the different ways people use their cars every day. We want to know if there's enough room for our families and our weekend gear and whether or not our favorite drink fits in the cupholder. Our editors want to help you make the best decision on a car that fits your life.
related vehicle information
2008 Toyota Yaris Information
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Build and Price TMV®
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Incentives & Rebates
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Consumer Discussions
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Consumer Reviews
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Features & Specs
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Pictures
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Review
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Dealer Price Quotes
- Used 2008 Toyota Yaris For Sale Near Me
- 2008 Toyota Yaris Ownership Costs


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The final copy of any thesis or dissertation must be submitted electronically in PDF format. Listed below are policies, instructions, and templates for submitting a final electronic dissertation or thesis.
Sycamore Scholars, an initiative of the Indiana State University library, collects, preserves, and provides open access to electronic scholarly work of the ISU community. Electronic theses and dissertations of students graduating since 2010 become part of the Sycamore Scholars repository.
Last updated: 25 February 2014
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What's not news for those who've already had the shots is that they're useless, as researchers have finally discovered.
In a recent study, 228 patients, who had suffered from sciatica for up to 18 months, were given either a lumbar epidural of corticosteroids or saline. After six weeks, there was no difference between the two groups and, after a year, a third of patients in both groups reported a 75-per-cent improvement in their condition.
So, a powerful drug was no better than a placebo.
But here's another way of looking at it: a placebo is just as effective as a powerful drug, so if you think something will make you better, it probably will (Rheumatology, 2005; 44: 1399-406).


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16 Dec 2013 09:48:33 AM
A Survivor in a Dangerous Game, GSP Finds the Exit Before It's Too Late
(After 11 years in a sport marked by physical trauma, emotional turmoil, and financial misdealings, St-Pierre is beaten, but not broken. / Photo via Getty)
Last Friday, Georges St-Pierre confirmed what has been suspected since his emotional post-fight speech at UFC 167 — that he is vacating the UFC welterweight title. Some are calling it a temporary hiatus, others see GSP as being permanently retired. Either way, the manner in which these events have transpired is a worthy story in itself.
The key to understanding the way St-Pierre has conducted himself, both inside and outside the Octagon, goes back to his earliest origins growing up in the rural area of St. Isidore, Quebec, Canada:
"I went to a school where it was pretty rough — I'd get my clothes stolen, my cash. And at home life was pretty hard too. I had a difficult childhood," said St-Pierre to an interviewer in 2006.
The upshot of these challenges translated into the single quality that defines GSP to this day — his relentless desire to please everybody around him. Not only was St-Pierre an absolute perfectionist with respect to his performance as a fighter, but he actively sought to cultivate positive relationships with all of the people he crossed paths with in life.
In a non-corporate environment, that character trait might have gone over better. In the shark tank of pimps, hustlers and thieves who infest the fight game, it made St-Pierre an easy mark for managers who felt entitled to take his money.Read More DIGG THIS


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As an astrophysics minor, you will have several resources right at your fingertips in addition to the expertise of our faculty.
Ball State has teamed with the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy (SARA) to bring you the best in research-grade equipment. We are the first university outside the American Southeast to join SARA, a consortium providing member institutions with research opportunities for faculty and students. Our faculty and students routinely observe astronomical objects using the 0.9-m telescope located on Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. Observations are usually made in real time over the Internet, but trips to Arizona to observe are also common events. Access will soon be available to a 0.6-m telescope at the Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory in Chile.
On campus, you will be provided with educational experience outside of the classroom by using our Planetarium and Observatory. The observatory contains telescopes of various sizes that the moon, bright planets, and stars to life. The planetarium is a sky theatre that can simulate the night sky at any place on Earth, at any time of the year.


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You are here: Root > InformationGo directly to another tag
A simple metaobject protocol for packages
A sketch proposal of a meta-pbject protocol for Common Lisp packages. It is based on the idea of associating to each package a corresponding class that represents it.
ASDF Manual
An online HTML version of the ASDF manual.
A specification for a standard multi-threading Common Lisp API. It has been superseded by Bordeaux-Threads.
A graphical overview of (some) CAPI classes
CDR Blog
A blog with news and information on the Common Lisp Document Repository (CDR).
CLX - Common LISP X Interface
Online version of the CLX Manual. CLX is a set of Common Lisp bindings to the X Window system, more or less at the same level of abstraction of the Xlib library.
CORBA Lisp Language Mapping
OMG CORBA Common Lisp language mapping specification.
Common Lisp HyperSpec (TM)
An online document mechanically derived from the ANSI Common Lisp X3J13 standard. It contains the full text of the ANSI standard, but does not have the same formal and legal status.
Common Lisp Interface Manager - CLIM II Specification (annotatable)
Annotatable version of the CLIM II specification. HTML conversion by Gilbert Baumann. CLIM is an advanced, Lisp-based graphical user interface management system. It provides a layered set of faciliti...
Common Lisp Interface Manager - CLIM II Specification
CLIM II specification. HTML conversion by Mike McDonald. CLIM is an advanced, Lisp-based graphical user interface management system. It provides a layered set of facilities for building applications, ...
Common Lisp Quick Reference
A booklet with short descriptions of the symbols defined in the ANSI standard. It comes with a comprehensive index.
Common Lisp Sockets APIs - An analysis and proposal
Paper by Dave Roberts, 27 December 2005. It proposes a creation of standardised Common Lisp networking API.
Common Lisp the Language, 2nd Edition
Book by Guy L. Steele Jr. Digital Press, 1990, ISBN 1555580416. Full text available online. Generally refered to as CLTL2
Gray Streams
Text of the failed ANSI X3J13 issue STREAM-DEFINITION-BY-USER. It has become an informal, de-fact standard for user-defined I/O streams in Common Lisp.
NCITS/J13 Document Repository
The document repository of the NCITS/J13 technical committee for Lisp, which maintains the ANSI standard for Common Lisp.
On Lisp html document
browsable version of Paul Graham's On Lisp
Shared State Concurrency for Common Lisp
SSC is a specification and test suite for a low-level, standardized Common Lisp interface for running multiple threads of control in a single Lisp image,
Streams in Allegro CL
Specification of the SIMPLE-STREAM extension for used-defined I/O streams in Common Lisp by vendor Franz, Inc.
The Common Lisp Document Repository
The Common Lisp Document Repository is a repository of documents that are of interest to the Common Lisp community. The most important property of a CDR document is that it will never change: if you r...
The Common Lisp Object System MetaObject Protocol
Text of chapters 5 and 6 of the book ``The Art of the Metaobject Protocol'' (by G. Kiczales, J. des Rivieres, and D.G. Bobrow, MIT Press, 1991, ISBN 0262610744). This part of the book has become an in...
The Lisp Dictionary
Lispdoc is a search engine for Lisp documentation. Currently indexed are: The HyperSpec, PCL, Successful Lisp, and SBCL's documentation strings. Example code is taken from PAIP and PCL. Basic sear...
Wiki list of websites powered by Lisp
List of websites and other web applications built using Lisp. Entries are strongly encouraged to be listed with the other software components used to build the site such as the web framework used or o...


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PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) — Former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy says he's established a group to lobby against legalized marijuana.
The ex-congressman says efforts around the United States to legalize marijuana are well-intentioned but misguided.
The Providence Journal reports (http://bit.ly/yXauJR ) that Kennedy's group, Project SAM — for Smart Approaches to Marijuana — will instead lobby for increased treatment for marijuana and drug abuse.
He says making marijuana legal would introduce a new substance comparable to alcohol and tobacco that would cause more public health problems than it would solve.
Kennedy also says he is skeptical about medical marijuana. He says it misdirects compassion for those who suffer from cancer and other diseases to support for an extreme drug policy.
Rhode Island allows the regulated use and cultivation of marijuana to treat some medical conditions.
Information from: The Providence Journal, http://www.providencejournal.com


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I would like to kiss goobye to Cookie Cutter I installed some time ago. I
threw all files to trash but something ("ghost") is still remaining. And that
something is crashing my Virex 6.1 virus program when I am scanning my
MAC. How to clean everything out? Can anybody give advice? I have MAC
PPC 7600/200 and OS 8.6 .


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With the fight for fracking seemingly on the back burner, some local farmers have spoken up.
- With the fight for fracking seemingly on the back burner, some local farmers have spoken up.
Dave Williams, vice president of the Wayne/Pike County Farm Bureau and Bob Rutledge, president of the Northern Wayne Property Owners Alliance, have organized a free screening of the documentary FrackNation.
Both Rutledge and Williams speak their mind in the film about why they "want to see responsible gas exploration in our area."
Rutledge still works the land at the family homestead, which has been in the family since 1847. The Northern Wayne Property Owners Alliance was formed in 2007 after many of the local farmers were appraoched with the opportunity to sign gas leases.
"A small group of farmers got together to stick together and get a better lease that was environmentally friendly," he said. That organization has grown to around 1,300 families in northern Wayne County.
The land leases negotiated by the original pack of farmers "became the standard for other leases" across the state. While the original leases required a setback of 250 feet from any water or well, the Alliance negotiated an increased setback of 500 feet from any water source. Rutledge says they have spent a lot of time and money "finding a responsible company to partner with" to move forward with exploration.
"We are not a bunch of greedy farmers," he said. "Our land is more important than money," adding that if money was the goal many would have signed leases immediately.
Rutledge says the primary concern is keeping his farm healthy for the next generation to inherit. "I want to save our farm and keep our farm in the family," he said. Gas leases are a way to ensure that that hope becomes a reality. With the financial support from a gas lease, parcels of the homestead could be kept instead of being sold. "To have someone else own the land would be a violation."
Williams said the film will give people on both sides of the issue a chance "to weigh the truth." What he found in the film is that "the biggest objectors are those who do the least to create a better environment."
FrackNation was made by Phelim McAleer after Josh Fox's documentary Gasland. McAleer is a filmmaker and investigative journalist. He has produced documentaries for CBC in Canada and RTE in Ireland. McAleer has also worked for the UK Sunday times.
The project, which premiered Jan. 22, 2013 on television, was funded by 3,305 backers on the website Kickstarter. The FrackNation website states all funds from oil and gas companies or executives were not accepted.
FrackNation will be having a free showing on April 6 at 11:30 a.m. and April 7 at 11:30 a.m. and 7:30 p.m. at Cinema 6 in Honesdale.
Admission is free, but a ticket is required for entry. Tickets for the event are available at the following merchants: Trackside Grill, 734 Main Street, Honesdale; Cochecton Mills, 20 Depot Road, Cochecton, NY; Dirlam Bros. Lumber Co., 250 Sunrise Ave., Honesdale; Shelly's Family Restaurant, 732 Hamlin Highway, Lake Ariel and at Cinema 6, 1199 Texas Palmyra Highway in Honesdale.
If you would like to attend, you are encouraged to stop by Cinema 6 the day of the show. If there are available seats, they will be filled on a first come, first serve basis.


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The current study examined the long-term trend in sex ratio at birth between 1929 and 1982 using retrospective birth histories of 310 101 Chinese women collected in a large, nationally representative sample survey in 1982. The study identified an abrupt decline in sex ratio at birth between April 1960, over a year after the Great Leap Forward Famine began, and October 1963, approximately 2 years after the famine ended, followed by a compensatory rise between October 1963 and July 1965. These findings support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis that mothers in good condition are more likely to give birth to sons, whereas mothers in poor condition are more likely to give birth to daughters. In addition, these findings help explain the lack of consistent evidence reported by earlier studies based on the 1944–1945 Dutch Hunger Winter or the 1942 Leningrad Siege.
1. Introduction
Evolutionary theories suggest that parents can adjust offspring sex ratio adaptively to achieve optimal survival and reproductive results [1,2]. The most influential adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis, which was proposed by Trivers and Willard (TW), stated that, because the reproductive success of male offspring tends to be more variable and resource-sensitive than that of female offspring, parental investment in sons of good quality yields greater reproductive returns than comparable investment in daughters of the same quality, whereas parental investment in sons of poor quality yields lower reproductive returns than comparable investments in daughters of the same quality [1]. This leads to the prediction that for human and non-human vertebrates, healthy, well-nourished and high-status mothers are more likely to give birth to sons, whereas unhealthy, poorly nourished and low-status mothers are more likely to give birth to daughters [3–7]. Another important adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis was proposed by Myers [2]. Myers agreed with TW on the prediction regarding the adaptive sex ratio adjustment but disagreed with their explanation. According to Myers, mothers under nutritional stress are more likely to give birth to daughters because daughters are nutritionally less expensive than sons and thus have a better chance to survive the harsh environment [2].
The empirical tests of the abovementioned adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypotheses have primarily focused on the effect of maternal nutritional condition [8–18]. Because social status and health condition are determined by a large number of genetic and environmental factors, they are difficult to experimentally manipulate for causal analysis. Nutrition, in contrast, can be manipulated in controlled experiments. In fact, some of the most important animal-based evidence supporting the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis comes from experimental studies [16–18]. Owing to additional legal and ethical restrictions on the use of human subjects in scientific research, however, human-based empirical evidence mainly comes from observational studies. One observational study using human subjects compared the sex ratio of offspring between women with a good diet and women with a poor diet [10], whereas other observational studies compared the sex ratio of offspring between women with normal weight or body mass index (BMI) and those with low body weight or BMI [13,19,20]. Research has also estimated the relationship between nutritional condition and sex ratio at birth at the national level [15]. These observational studies lead to inconsistent findings regarding whether poor maternal nutritional conditions reduce the proportion of male births among human. One possible explanation for the inconsistent results is omitted variable bias [21]. Women's conditions (e.g. weight, body mass, diet) and reproductive outcomes may be jointly determined by genetic and environmental factors, many of which cannot be directly observed and controlled for in statistical analysis. Without randomization, the estimated relationship between women's conditions and reproductive outcomes may be confounded by these unobserved determinants [22].
Famine provides an opportunity to tackle the problem. Famine serves as a 'natural experiment' that mimics a randomized experiment because the mechanism of determining an individual's nutritional condition (exposed to famine-induced malnutrition or not) is exogenous and largely independent of individual-level outcomes [23]. The effect of maternal nutritional condition on offspring sex ratio at birth can be assessed by comparing the sex ratio at birth between those who were born during the famine and those were born either before or after the famine. Unfortunately, existing famine-based empirical evidence is also inconsistent. Studies based on the 1944–1945 Dutch Hunger Winter and the 1942 Leningrad Siege reported (i) no association [9,24], (ii) a negative association [25] and (ii) a positive association [14] between maternal famine exposure and offspring's sex ratio at birth. There are a number of possible reasons for these inconsistent findings.
First, both the Dutch Hunger Winter and Leningrad Siege lasted for a relatively short period of time (seven months in Holland and six months in Leningrad). Therefore, the possibility that the duration of these famines was too brief to produce a consistent effect on sex ratio at birth cannot be ruled out [15]. Second, as both famines were regional in scale, they impacted relatively small populations, making it difficult to obtain study samples with large enough sample sizes to produce reliable effect estimates. Third, none of the existing studies paid sufficient attention to the potentially confounding effect of the long-term secular trend in sex ratio at birth, which has been documented in a number of studies [26,27]. Comparing birth cohorts (i.e. those who were born before, during and after the famine year) outside of their historical context results in the risk of mistakenly interpreting the effect of the long-term secular trend as part of the causal effect of interest. Depending on the direction and magnitude of the secular trend and the causal effect of interest, such confounding effects can lead to either false-positive or false-negative findings.
The commonly used dummy variable regression approach does not work well with long-term secular trend data. As Greenland [28] stated, breaking a continuous explanatory variable (e.g. time of birth) into an arbitrary number of subgroups (e.g. pre-famine, famine and post-famine cohorts) and including dummy variables that represent these subgroups into regression analysis assumes no within-group variation. This is a strong assumption and is not biologically reasonable, especially when the subgroup is defined broadly. When the subgroup is narrowly defined such that the no within-group variation assumption is less problematic, the number of subgroups to be included in the analysis is often too large to be tractable. As the number of subgroups increases, the number of cases within each group decreases, making it increasingly difficult to obtain reliable effect estimates. An alternative strategy is to conduct 'break point' or 'change point' analysis to capture abrupt changes in the long-term secular trend in sex ratio at birth [29,30]. Break points refer to the points on the regression line at which the regression function is continuous but first derivatives are discontinuous [29]. There are many forms of break-point analysis, the simplest of which is based on linear spline regression models [31]. Compared with quadratic, cubic or even higher order spline models, the main strength of a linear spline model is the interpretability of the spline coefficients, as these coefficients represent the differences in the slope coefficients of the regression lines before and after the break points [32].
The current study uses the Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine of 1959–1961 as a natural experiment to test the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis proposed by TW and Myers. Combining data from a large, nationally representative sample survey and linear spline-based break-point analysis, this study identified the following three break points on the otherwise smooth secular trend in sex ratio at birth between 1929 and 1982: (i) a sudden decline in sex ratio at birth beginning in April 1960, over a year after the famine began; (ii) a sharp increase beginning in October 1963, nearly 2 years after the famine ended; and (iii) a slowdown in July 1965, nearly 4 years after the famine ended, followed by a long-term gradual increase. Such a V-shaped curve provides evidence that supports the adaptive hypothesis and suggests that more than six or seven months of cumulative famine exposure may be required to observe the hypothesized changes in sex ratio at birth.
2. Material and methods
The Great Leap Forward Movement (November 1957–January 1961) was initiated by senior Chinese leaders to boost industrial productivity and accelerate the pace of economic development through mass mobilization. This effort, however, ended disastrously with a severe famine that lasted over 3 years and affected hundreds of millions of people [33,34]. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact beginning and ending dates of the famine because of the vast territory involved and the presence of significant regional variations in the famine impact. Famine conditions began in the autumn of 1958 in some parts of the country and then became widespread in the beginning (January) of 1959 [35]. The famine continued in most parts of China for 3 years until the end (December) of 1961, causing over 30 million deaths and 33 million fertility losses [34,36,37], making it one of the most disastrous catastrophes in modern human history. The Great Leap Forward Famine has been used to study the relationship between prenatal malnutrition and mortality [38,39], schizophrenia [40], BMI [41], height [41,42] and disability [43]. It also provides a sensible test case for adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis. In particular, the famine's unusually long duration and broad population impact provide an opportunity to understand why earlier studies based on the 1944–1945 Dutch Hunger Winter and the 1942 Leningrad Siege did not find consistent evidence for the hypothesized adaptive effects.
The data used in the present study were obtained from the 1982 one-per-thousand fertility survey conducted by the Chinese State Family Planning Commission. Conducted two months after the 1982 Chinese Census, the one-per-thousand fertility survey used the census as the sampling frame to collect complete retrospective birth histories from a nationally representative sample of 310 101 Chinese women aged 15–67 through face-to-face interviews. This survey was the first national fertility survey conducted in China since 1949, and it generated high-quality data with excellent population coverage [44,45]. A number of influential publications in the 1980s and 1990s were based on the one-per-thousand survey data, covering a wide range of research topics, including sex ratio at birth [46,47]. Because no earlier survey or census data are available in China and the official statistics for the 1960s and 1970s are fragmented and unreliable owing to the breakdown of the statistical system during the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976), the 1982 one-per-thousand fertility survey is the best data source to examine the demographic consequences of the Great Leap Forward Famine.
The current study focused on the 830 045 live-born children (born between September 1929 and July 1982) of the 310 101 surveyed women. The dependent variable, the sex of each child, was reported by the selected women. It was coded such that 1 = male and 0 = female. Retrospective information is subject to recall bias. However, because giving birth is such a significant event in a woman's life, recall bias is much less of a concern in this particular case. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the trend in sex ratio at birth was influenced by the one-child family planning policy because (i) the policy was in its very early stage in 1982 (when the survey was conducted), and its demographic consequences, including an increase in sex-selective abortion, did not become apparent until a few years later [48] and (ii) highly effective prenatal sex determination technology, such as the ultrasound machine, first appeared in China in the early 1980s; however, for several years, the technology was not sufficiently available to have a substantial impact on sex ratio at birth at the population level [49].
Children's birth cohort, defined by the year and month of birth, was used to approximate the key explanatory variable of maternal famine exposure status. The 36 single-month birth cohorts born between January 1959 and December 1961 represented the directly exposed group and the remaining cohorts composed of the unexposed group. To partial out the influence of changes in cohort composition, the analysis also controlled for variables including birth order, mother's age at childbirth, mother's education, ethnicity (ethnic Han versus others), place of residence (urban versus rural) and province.
To identify the number and location of break points at which significant deviations from the long-term secular linear trend in sex ratio at birth occurred, the current study relied on linear splines logistic regression models of the following form: 2.1
where Pt denotes the probability of having male births, Xt denotes the birth cohort, expressed as year and month of birth starting with Xt = September 1929, Sj denotes the location (year and month) of the jth break point and Dj denotes a set of dummy variables with values of 0 before reaching the designated break point Sj and a value of 1 thereafter. The intercept, α0, represents the log odds of the probability of having a male birth for the year and month zero, which is outside the relevant value range and is thus not meaningful. Its only purpose is to help define the regression line for the period between the initial point (September 1929) and the first break point. Whereas β0 represents the slope of change in the log odds of Pt for the period between September 1929 and the first break point, βj represents additional change to the slope coefficient added by the period between the (j−1)th and the jth break points. Z represents a vector of control variable and β* denotes their coefficients.
The sandwich robust estimator was used to correct for the possible clustering effect induced by the fact that each woman may have multiple children [50].
Unlike some of the more sophisticated alternatives, the linear spline regression model (as depicted in equation (2.1)) does not automatically produce an estimate of the globally optimal number or location of break points. Rather, these parameters are obtained through an iterative process of estimating and comparing a large number of models with different initially assigned break points. The main advantages of this approach are simplicity and robustness, as it is easy to implement with the existing software and can achieve robust results when other methods fail. The iterative model selection procedure relies on the following propositions [31]: (i) the linear effect model (i.e. model with zero break points) is nested in linear spline models (i.e. a model with one or more break points) and (ii) spline models with K break points are nested in spline models with these same K break points plus additional ones. Given these propositions, the likelihood-ratio tests can be used to determine the presence, number and location of statistically significant break points, given a set of initial values for the break points. Models with different sets of initial values for break points are generally not nested in one another; therefore, the likelihood-ratio test is not applicable. However, Akaike information criteria (AIC) can be used to choose between these non-nested models [51].
The following estimation and model selection procedures were used to identify the globally optimal number and locations of break points at which significant deviations from the long-term secular trend in sex ratio at birth occurred [52]: (i) define n = 1, 2, 3, … N(N > 20) equally spaced break points; (ii) for each of these N sets of initially defined break points, estimate all possible linear spline logistic regression models with n or less break points, and identify the optimal number of break points using likelihood-ratio test; (iii) choose the globally optimal number of break points from these N locally optimal number of break points (i.e. given the initially assigned break points) based on AIC. This process is time-consuming; however, some of the operations can be automated by the user-contributed command 'mvrs' in the statistical software Stata [52].
For comparison purposes, the results from two dummy variable regression models comparing single-year cohort difference in sex ratio at birth among the cohorts born before, during and after the famine are also included in the appendix, table 3.
3. Results
Figure 1 shows the number of births in each month between September 1929 and July 1982 recorded in the data. The very small number of births in the 1930s and earlier is an artefact of the sample selection criteria employed in the 1982 one-per-thousand fertility survey because the oldest women in the sample, those who were 67 in 1982, were only 14 in 1929. The upward trend in the number of births in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s were driven by the fact that more and more women in the sample grew up and became reproductively active. Similarly, the downward trend in the number of births in the 1970s and after were driven by the fact that more and more women in the sample grew old and ceased to be reproductively active. The sudden and unexpected decline in the number of births around 1960, however, cannot be explained by changes in the number of women of reproductive age. Instead, it suggests that the Great Leap Forward Famine had a significant fertility-inhibiting effect.
Figure 2 reports the monthly trend in the proportion of male births. To ensure the legibility of the figure, the very early cohorts with a small number of births were excluded from figure 2. The solid line, which was produced by non-parametric local polynomial smoothing method [53], suggests that the proportion of male births increased in the first half of the 1950s, reached the peak level around 1958, then began to decline; the decline stopped around 1963, then followed by a gradual increase. The timing of the decline in the proportion of male births coincides with the timing of the Great Leap Forward Famine, suggesting that women during the famine were less likely to give birth to sons.
Table 1 reports model selection information from 38 linear spline logistic regression models. The first column of the table reports the initial number of equally spaced break points; the second column reports the locally optimal (i.e. given the initial values) number of break points based on the results of likelihood-ratio test; the third column reports the locations of the identified break points; and the fourth column reports the associated AIC values. The baseline model with no break point yielded an AIC value of 1 149 329. This value was higher than that in any other models with break points, suggesting that the linear trend model fits the data poorly, and significant deviations from the long-term secular trend in sex ratio at birth do exist. Among the models listed in table 1, AIC indicates that the best-fit model began with 90 equally spaced break points (AIC = 1 149 308), followed by the model that began with 19 and 100 equally spaced break points (AIC = 1 149 309). All of the best-fit models resulted in three break points based on the likelihood-ratio test and were relatively close together.
Further model selection exercises suggested that the AIC value of 1 149 308 is the lowest possible value that could be achieved from these data; therefore, the linear spline model beginning with 90 equally spaced break points yielded the best-fit model. Based on this model, three break points located in April 1960, October 1963 and July 1965 were identified. Table 2 reports break point coefficients from the best-fit model in the form of estimated difference in the slope of the regression lines before and after the break points. Between September 1929 and April 1960, the log odds of having a male birth gradually decreased at a rate of 0.00011 per month. The trend of having a male birth changed significantly, however, between April 1960 and October 1963, as the log odds of having a male birth declined rapidly at a rate of 0.00103 (i.e., (−0.00011) + (−0.00092)) per month. The coefficients for the other two periods can be interpreted similarly.
Results from spline models are best presented by plotting the predicted values. Figure 3 shows the predicted proportion of male births and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) produced by the best-fit model reported in table 2. As shown in figure 3, the proportion of male births gradually declined between before April 1960 from 0.527 to 0.521. In April 1960 (over a year after the Great Leap Forward Famine began), the proportion of male births began to show an abrupt decline from 0.521 in April 1960 to 0.510 in October 1963. More specifically, the decline in the proportion of male births that occurred between April 1960 and October 1963 (42 months) exceeded the total decline that occurred between September 1929 and April 1960 (approx. 370 months). The rapid decline in the proportion of male births ended in October 1963, roughly 2 years after the famine ended, and was followed by a sudden compensatory increase. In less than 2 years, the proportion of male births rose from 0.510 to 0.518, approaching the pre-famine level. This compensatory increase ended in July 1965 and was followed by a long-term gradual increase, leading to a proportion of male births of 0.520 in 1982.
The V-shaped curve, as shown in figure 3, confirms the descriptive findings shown in figure 2. The sudden decline in the proportion of male births in April 1960 occurred to those who were conceived around July 1959, half a year after the famine began. This result suggests that the response to famine-induced malnutrition was triggered only after the adverse effect accumulated to a certain level. Similarly, given that the proportion of male births rebounded in October 1963 (being observed for those who were conceived in January 1963, approximately a year after the famine ended), a similar conclusion could be reached. The 1 year lag between the end of the famine and the beginning of the compensatory increase may indicate the amount of time it took for most women to recover fully from the famine and reach a normal body condition, for which they were expected to produce a similar sex ratio at birth as before the famine.
It is informative to compare results from break-point analysis against results from dummy variable regression models, as reported in the appendix, table 3. The unadjusted model in the appendix, table 3 included single year birth cohort as the only explanatory variable, whereas the adjusted model also included a number of control variables, including province, ethnicity, maternal education, place of residence, maternal age and birth order. The two models yielded consistent results with only the following exception: the difference in the odds of having a male birth between the 1962 cohort and the 1956 reference cohort was statistically non-significant in the unadjusted model but was statistically significant in the adjusted model. These results agree with the results of break-point analysis. Without knowing the overall trend and the V-shaped pattern in the proportion of male births obtained from break-point analysis, it is not intuitive to explain why the 1962, 1963 and 1964 birth cohorts (who were born after the famine) had a statistically significant lower level of odds of having a male birth but the 1959, 1960 and 1961 birth cohorts (who were born during the famine) did not.
4. Discussion
This study identified a V-shaped pattern in the sex ratio at birth around the time of the Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine. The fact that (i) only three break points in the long-term trend in the sex ratio at birth in China between September 1929 and July 1982 (635 single month birth cohorts in total) were identified and (ii) the identified break points closely matches the timing of the 1959–1961 Great Leap Forward Famine suggests that the famine-induced variation in maternal nutritional condition is likely to be the primary cause for the abrupt changes in sex ratio at birth around that short period of time.
That the abrupt decline in the proportion of male births first occurred to those who were conceived more than half a year after the famine began suggests that the earlier studies based on the Dutch Hunger Winter and Leningrad Siege failed to recover consistent evidence regarding the relationship between maternal famine exposure and offspring sex ratio at birth because the duration of the famines was insufficient. These famines either never reached the first break point at which the sex ratio began to decline drastically (in the Leningrad Siege case) or barely reached the first break point and ended before the change became detectable (in the Dutch Hunger Winter case). Furthermore, it is possible that more time would be required to observe the adaptive sex ratio adjustment effects in these other famine contexts because the severity of these famines was much less than that of the Great Leap Forward Famine in China.
This study has several limitations. First, it uses retrospective fertility history information, which is subject to under-reporting and recall bias. However, as discussed above, because giving birth is a significant event in a woman's life, recall bias is much less of a concern. Although sex differential under-reporting of birth is a known phenomenon in China, there is no compelling reason to believe that the pattern of under-reporting changed so drastically during the short period of time around the Great Leap Forward Famine that it produced the V-shaped curve in the proportion of male births presented in figure 3.
Second, the results reported in this study are consistent with both the TW hypothesis and the Myers hypothesis. Unfortunately, owing to data limitation, it is impossible to conduct further tests to identify the exact evolutionary mechanism that has produced the observed relationship between famine exposure and changes in sex ratio at birth.
Third, also owing to data limitation, the current study cannot directly assess whether the famine-induced changes in sex ratio at birth occur around the time of conception (i.e. selective fertilization) or at later gestational stages (i.e. selective attrition). While selective fertilization is clearly adaptive in nature [54], selective attrition is not necessarily so. To be more specific, the reason why male foetuses have a lower chance to survive during the famine could simply be that they are more vulnerable to adverse environmental conditions [55,56]. Indirect evidence suggests that, however, this is unlikely to be the case here. Earlier study shows that the famine-induced increase in foetal attrition began in 1959 and ended in 1962 [57], which means that: (i) the increase in foetal attrition in 1959 did not cause an immediate change in sex ratio at birth, and (ii) the observed changes in sex ratio at birth in 1962–1965 were not caused by changes in foetal attrition. In other words, although selective foetal attrition may have played a role in shaping the sex ratio at birth among the 1960–1961 birth cohorts, selective attrition alone cannot explain the changes in sex ratio at birth in the 1962–1965 cohorts. Future studies should focus on the relationship between changes in foetal attrition and changes in sex ratio at birth directly to assess the relative importance of famine-induced selective attrition in producing the observed changes in sex ratio at birth.
In conclusion, this study provides empirical evidence suggesting that the 1950–1961 Great Leap Forward in China led to a decrease in the proportion of male births during the period. Such results support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis that mothers in good condition are more likely to give birth to sons, whereas mothers in poor condition are more likely to give birth to daughters.
This study is derived from a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) key research project entitled 'The Past, Present, and Future Pattern of Sex Ratio at Birth in China—Some Policy Implications'. I obtained the data from the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC) through CASS for the purpose of this project. I thank both SFPC and CASS for their support to the project. I also thank Queens College, City University of New York for their support during manuscript preparation. I am grateful for the constructive comments and suggestions made by the editor and three anonymous reviewers of Proceedings of the Royal Society B. All remaining errors are mine.
Appendix A
- Received February 12, 2012.
- Accepted March 2, 2012.
- This journal is © 2012 The Royal Society


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Despite several reunion efforts, Selena Gomez and Justin Bieber could not stay together in 2013. (FameFlyNet)
Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson officially split on May 18, 2013. But could they be getting back together??? (Bauer-Griffin)
Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth announced the end of their engagement on Sept. 16, 2013. (SplashNews)
We took the hint that Chris Brown and Rihanna were no longer dating when he said he was single on May 6. (Bauer-Griffin)
After a year of trouble, Khloe Kardashian filed for divorce from Lamar Odom on Dec. 13, 2013. (FameFlyNet)
Taylor Swift dumped Harry Styles on Jan. 4. He was trouble (ever since he walked in). (FameFlyNet)
Kris and Bruce Jenner announced their separation on Oct. 8. (Getty)
Nooo! Nina Dobrev and Ian Somerhalder split on May 9. (Jamie McCarthy/Entertainment/Getty Images)
Miranda Kerr and Orlando Bloom announced their plans to divorce on Oct. 25. (Jason Merritt/Entertainment/Getty Images)
Ryan Seacrest sent Julianne Hough home in March. (Kevin Winter/Entertainment/Getty Images)
Jane Lynch and Lara Embry announced their divorce in June of 2013. (Bauer-Griffin)
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Near-misses doom MonarchsBy IAN CLARK
New Hampshire Union Leader
February 25. 2012 11:22PM
MANCHESTER - The Manchester Monarchs spent most of the third period knocking on the door, but the Albany Devils just wouldn't let them in.
Albany escaped with a 3-1 win over the Monarchs in front of 5,413 fans at Verizon Wireless Arena Saturday night. Manchester dropped its franchise-record fifth consecutive home game in falling to 28-27-3, and will host Providence (26-24-6) today at 3 p.m.
The Monarchs went 0-for-8 on the power play, including missing on six extra-man chances in the third period. Near-misses, pucks bouncing just wide, hot Devils goalie Jeff Frazee and pucks banging off goal posts all added up to zeroes for Manchester as it tried desperately to tie the game while trailing 2-1.
'Frazee stood on his head and our inability to score goals is ever-apparent out there,' said Monarchs head coach Mark Morris. 'We're getting some great chances and we hustled and we competed. I think my biggest disappointment is our lack of execution at the tail end of the game.'
Still needing just a goal to tie, the Monarchs pulled goalie Martin Jones for an extra skater in the final 1:43. But poor decisions allowed an uncovered Vladimir Zharkov to collect a loose puck at neutral ice and skate in for an empty net goal at 19:01 to ice the game for Albany.
'We had no regard for the puck,' said a visibly frustrated Morris. 'We were trying to carry the puck into traffic and we turned the puck over three times when we've got an extra skater out there when all we need to do is get the puck deep and get in there and win a puck battle and start shooting and get more traffic in front to give ourselves a chance to win.'
Morris took the blame, but noted that he can't help the players think out there.
'I can't explain the logic of some of the decision-making that happened on the ice,' Morris said. 'I'm responsible for that, but I have no recourse as to how you can get inside somebody's helmet and help them think the game.'
After a scoreless first period, Albany (26-20-8) took a 1-0 lead at 3:18 of the second. Working the power play, the Devils moved the puck around and it eventually came to Eric Gelinas for a wrist shot from the high slot that beat Jones, who had trouble finding the puck through net-mouth traffic.
Albany went up 2-0 on a Steven Zalewski goal at 13:54. Zharkov was pulled down driving to the net and a penalty was upcoming. But as he fell to the ice, Zharkov was able to send the puck ahead to Zalewski, who reached out to tip it through Jones' pads as the goalie slid across the crease.
Manchester cut the lead in half with a goal at the 19:00 mark of the second. Defenseman Andrew Campbell made a nice breakout pass to Justin Azevedo at the Devils' blue line and Azevedo skated in alone on Frazee, beating him glove-side with a sharp wrist shot inside the right pipe.
But that was the only shot to elude Frazee all night as the Albany netminder made 38 saves, several of the highlight-reel variety.
'It is frustrating. We can't let it get to us,' Azevedo said.' We threw a lot of rubber at (Frazee). He played well. We've got to bounce back (today). We did play well. We just take positives out of it and move on.'


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June 26. 2014 1:09PM
3 arrested in 1st-degree stabbing murder of Madbury teen
By KATHRYN MARCHOCKI
New Hampshire Union Leader
No bail for trio charged in knife, machete murder of Madbury teen
Three men are charged with first-degree murder for alledgegly stabbing a Madbury teen to death at his home on Saturday.
The men arrested and charged with the murder are Zachary Pinette , 18, of Springvale, Maine, Michael Tatum , 21, of Barrington, and Tristan Wolusky , 18, of Rochester, New Hampshire authorities announced Thursday morning.
The three are accused of murdering Aaron Wilkinson, 18, on the property of his 36 Evans Road home in Madbury on Saturday. His body was found later that day.
Wilkinson's body was found about 4 p.m. in Lebanon, Maine by a woman walking her dog.
Paul R. Carroll reported his son, Aaron Wilkinson, missing from their home Saturday morning.
"We're working through this, " Carroll said when reached by telephone this morning.
Carroll would not say if he knew the three men charged with his son's murder or discuss any other details of the case.
But he went out of his way to express his gratitude to law enforcers whose investigation led to the arrests of three suspects.
"I appreciate the efforts of all the police departments involved and the Attorney General's Office," Carroll said.
"I tip my hat to these people for their professionalism and their compassion. They're excellent," he added.
"I just look up to them more than ever before," Carroll said.
Carroll said it has been a "difficult year" and declined further comment.
Wilkinson's death was a blow to students and staff at Great Bay Charter School in Exeter, where the 18-year-old is remembered for his intelligence, passion for art and many friends.
"He was he was a very, very bright young man. He was very inquisitive. He loved his art. He loved skateboarding. He adored his friends. He loved his family. He was just pretty much a typical teenager," the school's executive director, Cheryl McDonough, said.
Wilkinson attended the school for several years and withdrew in April or May.
"He was a great kid. His father was a very committed, involved parent," she added.
"It's shocking for us," McDonough said, noting the charter school is known for its strong sense of community .
"I think in the whole time I've been there we may never had a fight, ever. We are a very close and peaceful, non-violent community," she explained.
"Our biggest assets, which we've received awards for, is our school community and the closeness of our kids. So this is really hitting the mark," McDonough said.
Students organized a candlelight vigil for Friday night to celebrate Wilkinson's life. It will be held from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. in Swayze Park in Exeter.
McDonough said she doesn't know the details behind Wilkinson's withdrawal from the school, but said it is not uncommon in charter schools for students to withdraw at any time and enroll in other schools.
About 160 students in grades seven through 12 attend Great Bay Charter School, which focuses on hands-on, project-based learning.
The three suspects will be arraigned at 1 p.m. today in 7th Circuit Court- Dover District.