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General Question
Any suggestions on how to cure insecurities?
Asked by Krazykat (74) July 19th, 2009
Does anyone have any suggestions on how to cure lifelong insecurities? I'm sure many people have grown up feeling unloved, or not loved enough. So, how do you move into adult relationships and not need constant reassurance from your SO? I am in a relationship now and it is a self-fulfilling prophecy to feel that if I don't get enough attention I am not loved enough and then him being annoyed with my mood when my insecurities flare up? Any suggestions on things to do? I've seen counselors before and I'm tired of just bringing up my past and nothing being solved.
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A daily glance inside the numbers from the world of sports:
• Pat Riley returned to the NBA sidelines Tuesday night and used his bench to help secure a 100-97 victory in Chicago. Four Heat reserves played at least 20 minutes: Antoine Walker, Gerald Fitch, Alonzo Mourning and Shandon Anderson. Four non-starters playing 20-plus minutes is not uncommon -- but it is rare in such a close game. Miami became the first NBA team this season to win a game by three or fewer points while playing four non-starters for at least 20 minutes.
Only once before as an NBA head coach had Riley won a game in regulation time by three or fewer points, while playing four different guys off the bench for at least 20 minutes. On Feb. 5, 1993, the Knicks won in Miami 108-105 with Doc Rivers, Anthony Mason, Tony Campbell and Rolando Blackmon each playing 20-plus minutes as non-starters.


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S. Tucker Taft, AdaCore
Building trust in a model-based automatic code generator
How do you go about building trust in an automatic code generator used for safety-critical systems? For example, given a code generator that takes a real-time model for a flight control system represented in Simulink and Stateflow and turns it into MISRA C or the SPARK subset of Ada, what process could ensure that the [...]
Advanced static analysis for reusable libraries and subsystems
Advanced static analysis tools are no longer novelties but rather are becoming true strategic elements in the standard professional developer's toolkit.
Advanced static analysis meets contract-based programming
Advanced static analysis tools are helping programmers say what they mean, and mean what they say.


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ALDF is truly on the cutting edge of animal protection litigation. The organization's dedicated team devises creative and effective strategies to advance protections for animals, and doesn't shy away from going after the industry giants that perpetrate some of the worst animal abuse.
ALDF are absolutely and utterly amazing. Having both a grass-roots and a strategic focus means that they operate at all levels in their uncompromised focus to save animals from harm. Over time, I've come to know two of their members personally and I can tell you that their focus does not change when they operate in their personal capacity. I highly recommend ALDF - they are not just a great non-profit but an outstanding one and one which is making real, significant and long-lasting changes in our world.
I support ALDF because as a former Chairperson of the Fort Worth Animal Shelter Advisory Committee, I have seen firsthand the atrocities committed against animals in our city. We need groups like ALDF to fight and take action on behalf of animals everywhere.
I have been writing a pet column in newspapers for 35 years and The Animal Legal Defense Fund is the most important organization for the present and the future. We must have animal advocates in every town, city and state. Humane Officers are the first source to help animals on the scene immediately, but then comes the court case. The precedents set in court are going to help animals in the future and will send a messages to those who are cruel or negligent, that the people of The United States value other species . Criminals will be held accountable.
Helping those who can't help themselves! Well done!
The ALDF helps bring justice to those who abuse, torture, or kill animals. We as a society need to send a clear message that abuse in any form will not be tolerated.
the aldf is a joke, no better than the h$u$. They should try to focus on the animals in need, not just just big publicity cases.
Clerking with ALDF, I got to see first-hand how passionate and amazing this group of people of is. Love for animals comes through in all of their actions and words.


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Ok, so I have neglected my blog dreadfully! I have been so busy with the holidays, but mostly I am guilty of neglect. One thing I have been doing is working on some new projects for ebay which has taken me longer than I expected. I hope to have something to show by the end of the week. I also took a little break between Christmas and New Years. Now I am doing ornaments as they make cute little Valentines. I hate to think that far ahead already, but they need to get done now if people want them for decorations a couple of weeks before the holiday.
I have often been torn between my more folk art work and my fine art work and what should I promote online. Yesterday I decided that I will feature my folk artsy stuff on ebay and my fine art work on etsy. At least that's the plan for today. I allow myself the option to change my mind, since it will probably happen anyway.
Today I am featuring an ornament that is currently up for auction on ebay - "I Love Ewe".


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The God Delusion is a 2006 best-selling[1] non-fiction book by English biologist Richard Dawkins, professorial fellow of New College, Oxford,[2][3] and former holder of the Charles Simonyi Chair for the Public Understanding of Science at the University of Oxford.
In The God Delusion, Dawkins contends that a supernatural creator almost certainly does not exist and that belief in a personal god qualifies as a delusion, which he defines as a persistent false belief held in the face of strong contradictory evidence. He is sympathetic to Robert Pirsig's statement in Lila (1991) that "when one person suffers from a delusion it is called insanity. When many people suffer from a delusion it is called religion."[4] With many examples, he explains that one does not need religion to be moral and that the roots of religion and of morality can be explained in non-religious terms.
In early December 2006, it reached number four in the New York Times Hardcover Non-fiction Best Seller list after nine weeks on the list.[5]
The book has attracted widespread commentary, with many books written in response.


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Dick Nixon on the GOP debate: Trump scores and Rubio just looks lost
Rubio is hiding something.
No, no, the lawyers won't like that. Let me clarify: Rubio doesn't know who he is.
(Editor's note: Here President Nixon paused the telephone call to confer with counsel. He returned five minutes later.)
Honestly, Rubio is easy to understand. Imagine a fellow wants to sell you a chair. It looks fine, sturdy, but it's just like the chair in your office. You ask him how it's different and he swears to God it is. He just swears, and swears, and swears again until you give in.
He runs as the "new generation," which is rich when his foreign policy is the Bush/Cheney thing dolled up in that dumb zip sweater. It gives him the appearance of a choir director or field hockey coach whose hobbies include gardening, cooking and working to bomb Shanghai Read more…
More about George W. Bush, Donald Trump, Richard Nixon, and Jeb Bush
Source: Mashable 3d printer
Dick Nixon on the GOP debate: Trump scores and Rubio just looks lost


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F-3000™ Connector Family. What is the F-3000™ fiber optic connector system?. The following questions must be answered: What advantages does the F-3000 fiber optic connector grant? What are future market requirements? What are the main parameters of the F-3000 connector?
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
Connector Family
A complete connector family
Using the same basic parts to offer reliable optical and mechanical performances in PC and APC versions.
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The F-3000™ mating adapter is suitable for differentapplications, thanks to its flexibility, permitting the usage of a variety of metal mounting brackets (clips) over the same plastic body.
Using the same basic parts in order to offer repeatable performances for PC and APC connectors.
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Compact, modular construction
Spring loaded metal shutter
Interchangeable mounting brackets
Compatibility of our mating adapter with LC connectors without integrated dust cap
(including FTTC, FTTH and FTTD)


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- Please select a date to see the proper prices!
- Meal can be requested on the spot
Best offer
55 € / person / night, no meal
Description of the accommodation:
Rooms, services 11 comfortably furnished rooms are offered by Priska Residence Mareta to guests looking for accommodation in Mareta. You are also welcome at the hotel for a fine local meal in the restaurant. If necessary, parking is available nearby. Available wellness services will provide you the opportunity to refresh yourself, the steam room and solarium will also be waiting for you. The local café or the bar will provide an ideal location for personal meetings and nice evening chats. Your valuables can be the safely secured in the safe. You can also bring your laptop for the holiday, for there is wireless Internet connection (WiFi) available at the hotel. You can find the exact list of services provided by Priska Residence Mareta (including those for extra fees) and the exact equipment of the rooms on the information sheet below.
Payment For the reservation you may need to provide advance payment by credit card or credit card guarantee, depending on the exact date, room and price.
Arrival, opening hours The earliest arrival time is 17:00, the latest time to leave the rooms is 10:00. You will be able to speak with the personnel in Italian and English languages.
Priska Residence Mareta rooms Rooms
- Please select a date to see the proper prices!
Accommodation services
Free WiFi in shared places
- Wellness section, relaxation
- Steam room
- Jacuzzi
- Finnish sauna
- Solarium
Pet friendly (8 €/night), Garden, Bar, Cafe, Safe deposit box
Own restaurant
Hairdryer, Fridge, Desk in the room, Microwave oven, Tea/coffee-maker


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Invest in the Next Generation!
In Family Ministry at Thomas Road Baptist Church, we desire to make huge impacts for God in the next generation. In fact, our desire and mission is communicate the truth and love of Jesus to every child and student in our area.
Our mission is to change our world by seeing children and students become passionate followers of Jesus Christ.
Translation: We want to see the "next" generation come to faith in Christ and live out their faith in front of their family and friends.
To accomplish this, God wants to use you in reaching the next generation!
What's in it for you?
No matter what we do, we always ask ourselves what will we get out serving and participating in the mission? Specifically in this case, what can you get out of serving and investing your life into the life of a young person? Well…we are glad you asked!
Just think about the last time a volunteer did something for you. Didn't it make you feel special and cared for? When we pour ourselves into others, we pass along the work God has done for us to others. Ephesians 2:10 tells us that "we are created to do good works in Christ Jesus, and we should walk in them." In other words, God has made you for serving and investing yourself in others! So jump in!!
We believe you will:
1. Use and see God's gifts in you… change lives both now and for eternity.
2. Participate in a mission that is bigger than you.
3. Serve with a team of fellow believers who love you.
4. See God do a work in your heart.
5. Experience God in a way you wouldn't otherwise.
Family Ministry Leadership 101 Playbook
Click here to download and review.
Get Involved:
Step 1: Choose a Ministry!
There are many opportunities to serve at TRBC. These opportunities provide incredible ministry to help kids develop in their faith, and we want the best ministry for you and your passions, personality, and availability. Here is a just a brief summary of the types of ministries you could serve in:
- Nursery (Birth – 2.5 years)
- Preschool
- Elementary
- Middle School
- High School
- College
- Guest Services (For example: Greeting, Kiosks, Campus Safety, Hospitality)
- Media/Tech
- Design and the arts
- Sports and coaching
Step 2: Connect!
Choose a ministry by connecting with our staff. Take just a moment to fill out this Online Family Ministry Volunteer Information form to connect with our team and we will contact you to get you started serving!
Step 3: Launch!
After completing the PM Leader Information Form, our staff will guide you through our application and connection process. Once completed, you will be placed on an incredible ministry team and launched for ministry!


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This event has been and gone!
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Check out the info below for future tour dates, and track them to receive alerts when they tour near you
Never miss another 'The History Of Apple Pie' show
The History Of Apple Pie
Prior to their Spring tour, The History Of Apple Pie will play a special in-store show at Rough Trade East to celebrate their debut album release.
The album, recorded in London over the last few months, was self produced by guitarist Jerome Watson, mixed by Charles 'Chicky' Reeves and engineered by Joshua Third of The Horrors.
A truly great and exciting live band, to coincide the release, The History Of Apple Pie line up of Stephanie Min (Vocals), Jerome Watson (Guitar), Kelly Owen(Bass), James Thomas (Drums) and Aslam Ghauri (Guitar) will set off on their first UK tour for over a year. The dates kick off in York on the 31st of January and finish up with a London show at The Old Blue Last on the 19th of February.
Image © The History Of Apple Pie
The History Of Apple Pie
London-based, female-fronted five piece "...born out of the dream melange of melody and noise as pioneered by Sonic Youth, Dinosaur Jr and My Bloody Valentine." - The Guardian
The History Of Apple Pie tour dates
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Venue Facts
Venue: Rough Trade (East)
Website: roughtrade.com
Enquiries: 0207 392 7788
→ Shoreditch High Street 5 min walk
→ Aldgate East 9 min walk


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Discussion in 'Cuttlefish Care' started by djdime, May 2, 2009.
is there anyway i can coax my bandensis to come out more during the day?
Do you only have one? I've heard they are more active with other cuttles in the tank, but I have no personal experience with this.
Feed them during the day.
i have 6.
Thales, do you think the presense of a fish in there could be scaring them? its a fairy wrasse that hid in the sand when i caught all my other fish, been trying to catch him for some time but having no luck. He doesnt even notice them.
Um yes. As soon as the wrasse does notice them, it will eat them.
They are far too big for him to eat. I will try and catch him with a hook and line.
They are far too big for him to eat. I will try and catch him with a hook and line.
Not in pieces.
I managed to catch him this weekend using a small hook and line.
Thales. All cuttles are approx 2".
Is it normal as they are (i would imagine) still juve to remain hidden during daylight hours?
I have started to try and feed them ONLY during the day.
What does this tentacle position mean? My cuttle keeps doing it as well...
I think cuttles are more nervous with fish around. My mantis shrimp display vast behavioral differences in the presence of fish (hiding all day) compared to when there aren't any fish (out all the time, exploring, hunting more aggressively, eating kills in the open instead of dragging them back to their burrows)
Cute cuttle!
Good news is they are getting more bold. albeit within darting distance of the halimeda.
If your a shrimp that area of the tank is a death sentance
Separate names with a comma.


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All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.
List price: $41.00Edition: 2ndCopyright year: 2014Publisher: West AcademicPublication date: 2/6/2014Binding: PaperbackPages: 326Size: 7.25" wide x 9.75" long x 0.50" tall Weight: 1.540Language: English
Professor Stephanie J. Willbanks is an expert in federal transfer taxation as well as wills and trusts. The courses she has taught at Vermont Law School include Business Taxation, Estate and Gift Taxation, Estate Planning, Estates, Income Taxation, Tax Policy, and Torts. She is the author of "Federal Taxation of Wealth Transfers: Cases and Problems as well as Federal Estate and Gift Taxation: Quick Review."Professor Willbanks received her BA degree, magna cum laude, in 1972 and her JD degree, magna cum laude, in 1978, both from the University of Minnesota. After graduation from law school, she clerked for the Honorable Rosalie E. Wahl of the Minnesota Supreme Court. She then practiced law for two years with the firm Henson & Efron PA in Minneapolis before joining the VLS faculty in 1981. In 1986, she became the first female faculty member to receive tenure at VLS. She served as associate dean for Academic Affairs from 1989 to 1994 and from 1997 to 2002, and as vice dean for Academic Affairs from 2005 to 2009. She also served as director of academic technology from 2002 to 2005.Professor Willbanks is an academic fellow of the American College of Trust and Estates Counsel (ACTEC), a member of the American Law Institute, and a commissioner on the National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws. She served as reporter to the Vermont Supreme Court's Advisory Committee on Rules of Probate Procedure from 1998 to 2005. She served on the Association of American Law Schools' Membership Review Committee from 2004 to 2006 and on numerous accreditation teams for the ABA and AALS. She is currently the Consultant on Membership Review for the AALS. She has presented lectures on estate planning and tax reform at numerous seminars and has served on a number of commissions in the state of Vermont, including the Vermont State Commission on Tax Policy and the Governor's Commission on Property Tax Reform. She has also served as a member of the Vermont Supreme Court's Advisory Committee on Judicial Education, the Vermont Supreme Court's Judicial Performance Review Committee, and the Mandatory Continuing Legal Education Board. She is a member of the American Bar Association's Tax Section, Real Property, Trust and Estates Section as well as the Vermont Bar Association's Probate and Trust Section and Tax Section.
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After the Texas Department of Public Safety's request for $1 billion over two years to expand the state's unprecedented border security campaign, the legislator who authored the centerpiece of the current border-funding package is now questioning whether state taxpayers should continue to pay for what has traditionally been a federal responsibility.
"We're heading into a budget where we don't have billions of dollars in surplus," said Dennis Bonnen, an Angleton Republican who heads the Texas House Ways and Means Committee, at a Tuesday hearing of a separate committee that focuses on border security. "I'm not sure that the taxpayers of Texas, who are also taxpayers to the federal government, have untold tax dollars to support a role of the federal government."
Bonnen said he was increasingly frustrated that federal agencies haven't adequately secured the border.
The U.S. Customs and Border Patrol's annual budget exceeds $13 billion, and total federal spending on border security and immigration efforts is more than $18 billion.
GET THE DAY'S LATEST NEWS: Click here to sign up for our Afternoon Updates email
"I'll be candid: I'm starting to lose patience," Bonnen said. "If the federal government and Border Patrol made this a real priority, they could resolve this problem."
Bonnen's comments come as state lawmakers brace for the legislative session that begins in January, when they will have to grapple with decreasing revenue caused by low oil and gas prices, increasing demands on scandal-plagued programs for vulnerable children and, as always, calls for tax cuts.
Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, have instructed most state agencies to prepare for 4 percent budget cuts, but they exempted several spending areas, including border security.
'Needed' spending
The state's border security program began in 2014, when then-Gov. Rick Perry responded to a surge in immigrants from Central America, many of whom were women and children, by declaring an emergency and sending Texas National Guard troops to the border.
The Legislature in 2015 approved $800 million over two years for border security and shifted the focal point of the campaign from the National Guard to the DPS, which is set to hire 250 new officers by the end of the year. Bonnen on Tuesday noted that "$800 million was a record, and it's $800 million more than any other state has ever spent" on border security.
DPS Director Steve McCraw said the $1 billion funding request for the 2018-19 budget is necessary despite competing demands for state resources.
"We wouldn't ask for it if it wasn't needed … especially at a time when the state treasury is not going to be large," McCraw told reporters. "There are many needs, but at the same point in time, if asked what the Department of Public Safety needs to be able to augment or continue or sustain (the border security program), we're going to be candid."
Detentions rising
Driven by poverty and gang violence in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, unauthorized immigrants from Central America are again sneaking across the U.S.-Mexico border, with detentions back up to 2014 levels. Many of the unauthorized immigrants are families who turn themselves in to U.S. law enforcement in the hopes of being granted asylum.
The Border Patrol's budget is larger than it ever has been under President Barack Obama, with more than 20,000 federal Border Patrol agents, more than 85 percent of whom are stationed along the Mexican border. Their ranks rose dramatically under former President George W. Bush from fewer than 10,000 in 2001 to over just over 20,000 in 2009. Under Obama, staffing levels peaked in 2011 at more than 21,000 and have since settled at around 2009 levels.
State Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury, who co-chairs the border committee with Bonnen, said the state is receiving a benefit for its investment, but he also expressed concern about having Texas taxpayers foot the bill for border security activities.
"Our federal government has consistently failed in their duty to secure our southern border, leaving the safety of Texans solely in the hands of state and local law enforcement — but Texas does not operate on unlimited income, nor can we deficit spend like Washington," Birdwell said in a statement. "My challenge is to carefully weigh the funding requests from DPS, the border security resources already in place, and, most importantly, the public safety needs of our citizens."


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Can you write out your model equations, so that we can better understand what you are doing.
I have a linear regression for Y on X, and a power regression for Z on Y, each having associated error. (the Y values are different (independent) in each case). I have combined the equations to model Z as a function of X.
What I want is a confidence envelope around the model estimates of Z.
Can you write out your model equations, so that we can better understand what you are doing.
Stop cowardice, ban guns!
N = aM +b, where N = number of eggs, M = mass of a small quantity of eggs
T = cS^f, where T = total mass of eggs, S = size of crab
so substituting produces the model estimating number of eggs N from size (S): N = a(cS^f)+b
what I'd like to be able to show are confidence envelope around the model predictions
Last edited by George Kraemer; 09-22-2017 at 11:12 AM.
Do you have the data which you use to estimate a, b, c and f?
yes. So the estimates have error terms associated.
You have problems because the model isn't linear and can't be made so. Things are also complicated because a and b (and c and f) are correlated.
This should (possibly could?) work -
Re-sample the first set of data, do the regression and get an a,b pair.
Re-sample the second set of data (log-logged), and do the regression to get a c,f pair.
For a particular size S, use a,b,c, and f to calculate N.
Repeat the three steps a few 1000 times to get a distribution for N. Find the 2.5% and 97.5%tiles.
thanks; that sounds do-able.
Are you looking for a confidence interval or are you actually interested in a prediction interval?
I don't have emotions and sometimes that makes me very sad.
one more question; what's the rule - assuming there is one - on the resample n (i.e., how many observations from the full data set used to estimate the constants each time?)?. The power curve data set has 258 observations. The linear data set has 102 observations
not sure; a measure of confidence around the predictions from the model
sorry, but still unsure. E.g., for the 102 mass-count observations, how many should be resampled each time for the estimates of the constants?
Make a new list of 102 pairs, choosing each pair at random from your original 102 pairs. Get a and b for that re-sampled list. This will give you a plausible a and b, correlated appropriately.
Do the same with the 258 pairs for the other set (after log-logging) to get a plausible c, f pair.
Find N.
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Category: Stock Graphic, Illustrations
Stock Graphic >> Illustration - Women Cargo Pants 153422 by VecFashion @ CreativeMarket
File Size: 2.97 MB; DPI: 300 DPI; Vector: Yes.
A stylish and unique vector template for Women's Cargo Pants, free to download. This vector template has a cut line on front and with a unique placement of pockets on side legs. The waist band have a unique style and it is more wide. The belt loops are also wider then its usual thickness.
Vec Id: VF096
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Keywords: combat pants, khaki cargo trouser, vector template, womens cargo pants.


text:
.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) today released the following statement regarding the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement:
"I am very encouraged that the Administration and the Government of Colombia have reached agreement on a path forward for the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement. This should enable Congress to vote soon on all three of our pending trade agreements -- with Colombia, Panama and Korea. I am confident that Congress will pass all of them with strong bipartisan support. These agreements will not just strengthen our economy and level the playing field for our workers; they will deepen our relationships with three critical strategic partners. The sooner Congress can pass all three of these trade agreements the better."
Source: http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressOffice.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=2cfba73d-eb52-bcf8-10bc-10a3689b808f&Region_id=&Issue_id=


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Shrug Free Knitting Patterns – Free Pattern Cross Stitch
6/16/2010 · A review of five free knitting patterns for shrugs with links to each of them. Free Patterns & Directions To Sew A Simple Or Elegant Shrug Modestprom.com Shrug Patterns and Directions – Free patterns and directions to sew simple but Filed under: Interweave Knits, Free Patterns, Interweave Free Knitting Pattern, Liz Gipson, Spin-Off, Wraps, Shrugs. Here is a simple shrug pattern,


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ATLANTA - Complaints about barking dogs and junk cars should no longer clog up 911 emergency lines in Savannah thanks to an easy-to-remember new number.
Tuesday, the city became the third local government in Georgia to receive approval for starting a 311 help line.
The state Public Service Commission granted the city's request for the non-emergency government services number. It could be running in the first part of next year and city officials hope residents will use 311 instead of 911.
Calls made with the new dialing code - required to be set up within six months - will be routed to the city's existing Customer Service Center that uses a traditional seven-digit number.
City officials will start promoting the free, 311 number as a way to reach non-emergency and government services, according to Savannah's petition to the state utility regulators.
"The biggest difference is something people won't see - the ability to track all calls as an organization effectively," said Sean Brandon, the city's management services coordinator.
Savannah spent about $80,000 to write a software program to track the calls, he said. It is already in place with the city's 651-5151 customer service number.
Almost every city department is on the new system. So if a resident calls in a problem, such as a pothole, the city can send it to the appropriate department and check to see if it has been fixed in the required amount of time.
The largest number of residential calls are for bulk item pick-up followed by pot holes. The Historic District, north of Liberty Street, generates the most complaints, which Brandon attributes to the area's age.
Reporter Scott M. Larson contributed to this report.
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text: A few years back, I had a customer who worked for a computer company that was installing the computer systems for a big Swiss Bank. He rented-out his new house (mansion) here and took the wife and kids with him for 3 years over to Switzerland. I would do the work, send him a bill as an attachment to an e-mail, and he would pay me thru on-line banking. It only took 3 days total, from billing to check in the P.O. Box. That one always kind of amazed me. The wonders of CyberSpace !!!


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Oil prices steady after recent falls on weaker dollar
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London/ Singapore: Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off as a fall in the dollar triggered a bout of short-covering, but analysts said the market remained vulnerable to further falls.
Rising oil prices through December encouraged investors to buy large volumes of crude oil futures contracts and many of these "long" positions are likely to be unwound unless the market stays strong, analysts and brokers say.
"I see this as a dead cat bounce," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. "Oil is unlikely to recover until the longs have been reduced."
Tamas Varga, analyst at London broker PVM, agreed. "We are seeing some short covering on the back of a weaker dollar," Varga said. "We might see stronger prices today after yesterday's big fall, but the market should weaken in coming days. I believe we are going lower."
Oil is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar tends to encourage buying by consumers holding other currencies. Brent crude was up 20 cents a barrel at $55.14 by 3.20pm. US light crude oil was up 25 cents at $52.21.
Both crude contracts fell more than $2 a barrel, or around 4%, on Monday on doubts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and other key oil producers would cut output as promised to try to reduce a global oversupply.
Opec members Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi both appear to be reducing production but it is not clear whether other big producers such as Iraq will follow suit. Supplies are also increasing in North America.
The average Canadian rig count for December 2016 was 209, up 36 from the 173 counted in November 2016, and up 49 from the 160 counted in December 2015, said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Services International in Dubai. "A 30% increase in Canadian rigs in a year ... The bear in me is well and truly back," Stanley said.
In the United States, energy companies last week added rigs for a 10th week in a row, extending the drilling recovery into an eighth month as crude prices remained at levels at which many US drillers can operate profitably. Adding one-off supplies, the US Department of Energy on Monday announced a sale for crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with bids for 8 million barrels of light, sweet oil due by 17 January.
"US SPR sales add to bearish pressures on US crude," Citi said following the release of the bids. Reuters
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The Penetrators - Locked And Loaded CD (Double Crown)
Locked and Loaded contains 13 original songs and features amazing cover art done by lead guitarist Rip Thrillby. The Penetrators deliver a fine set of surf and spy rock instrumentals, an amazing set of songs that have been features on MTV and in European and Australian surfing videogames. CD is nearly sold out, but we dug up a secret stash recently, so we have a few more copies available to sell.
Tracks: Checkpoint Echo - 50 Bucks A Midget - Redlined - Midnight Run - Deception Bay - Another Time, Another Place - Codename: Gypsy - Speed Bump - Single-Malt Stomp - Triple Dog Dare - Mariner 4 - Locked & Loaded - Southern Surf Syndicate Theme


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Well hello again. It's been a while, I hope you're all keeping well.
Last season I attempted to maintain some level of Fulham writing by providing occasional top fives for this esteemed blog. Time rather got the better of me and the extensive research required (i.e. reading Wikipedia) to produce a top five due to my appalling memory for facts hampered me even further. A recent round robin email discussion initiated by Timmy has reignited my desire to write about Fulham so I thought I'd try and produce a weekly post. Hopefully a fairly lighthearted compliment to the excellent analysis done by Richard and Timmy. Let me know if I outstay my welcome.
The other week I made the short trip to Kingston for the Fulham XI friendly against AFC Wimbledon. I was born in Kingston and with the ground only a 20 minute train ride and a short walk away it would have been rude not to go. Whilst the team was always going to be largely made up from Development Squad players (are they still called that?) it's nice to see some of the academy kids, players you otherwise only know by name. Lork wrote a fairly extensive report on HammyEnd.com so I won't go into great detail suffice to say that we played some decent football but lacked a bit of guile in the final third of the pitch.
It was lovely to stand on a terrace again. I know a lot of us 40-somethings probably sound a repetitive droning on about how much we miss be able to stand, but it really is the best way to watch football. The low roof over the Kingston Road stand gave the game a sort of wide-screen appearance I rather liked. It was also nice to be able to mingle with home fans. I chatted with a few Wombles fans and enjoyed a spell of "identify the player" for both teams, it seemed The Don's had almost as many trialists and academy players in their side as we did.
A small group of Fulham fans put in a good effort on the singing front which helped give the match a bit of atmosphere it might otherwise have liked. Within the first quarter of an hour we'd managed a call of "Maarten Jol's Black & White Army" and received a cheery wave from our new manager who was sitting in the stands. This was interesting I thought. I don't remember us attempting a version of "Mark Hughes Black & White Army" until several months into his reign. Was this because we didn't warm to the man very quickly or just a result of the lack of syllables in his name? Maybe this lack of early support contributed to the Welsh man's decision to cut an run. I think it's a good sign that we've got off on the right foot.
Mr Jol seems happy to be here and I'm excited about the adventure ahead in a way that I didn't feel last season. Clearly selecting a manager with a three or four syllable name is the right way to go and should be a factor for consideration in future managerial appointments. Actually, I've not entirely thought that through. Lawrie Sanchez had four syllables but had a difficult possessive apostrophe. Don Mackay, who I believe was the first boss on whom we bestowed the honour, proved to be a great song leader but a poor manager. On the positive side we have Adams, Keegan, Tigana, Coleman & Hodgson. If Jol can live up to the achievements of that group we'll all be happy.


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With three days to go, voters need answers
Timing is vital in politics. So, the Catholic bishops will hope their intervention on the same-sex marriage debate is timed right on this occasion.
With three days to go to polling, two archbishops and five bishops in Dublin, Cashel & Emly, Galway, Killala, Ossory, Ferns and Elphin, have called for a 'No' vote. It is their right to do this and it is an important part of our political discourse. Equally, it is the voters' right to make up their own minds.
Some of the bishops also raise important points which are not entirely new to the debate. But these points are now given more emphasis at a time when many voters are seriously considering how they will vote on Friday.


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Watch this short video for a brief introduction to Recreational Kayaks at Tumalo Creek Kayak & Canoe.
Tumalo Creek carries a wide variety of smaller recreational boats for those looking for a casual, low-impact experience out on the water. These boats are made for an easy day exploring Hosmer or Sparks Lake. They have great initial stability with is perfect for beginning paddlers. They are made to accommodate anglers, photographers, casual kayakers and kids who want to have fun out on gentle rivers, ponds and lakes. These boats are not ideal for open waters with heavy wind and currents.
Recreational kayaks usually have a smaller storage area or bulkhead for short day trips, though some have a larger bulkhead that could fit more gear. These boats are 10 – 12 feet long and have a very large cockpit for a more open feeling and easy of getting in and out. The wider beam (width) of the boat gives it more stability. Get the best of both worlds with performance recreation kayaks. Combine the cockpit size and performance of a touring boat and then add the stability of a recreation boat and you have a match made in heaven. These boats are a lot of fun to paddle without compromising balance.
Overall recreational kayaks are perfect for beginners and affordable enough to get one for each of the kids.
Here are some examples of our best selling recreational kayaks at Tumalo Creek:
Length: 12′ | Beam: 26″ | Weight: 41 lbs | Cockpit Size: 35″ x 18.5″ | Capacity: 295 lbs | Stability: High
This is a favorite choice among Central Oregon paddlers. It fits into a whole new catagory considered a "cross over." It is essentially a rec boat in size and fit, but has been carefully designed with many of the features and performance of a sea kayak. It is roomy and stable enough for the entry level paddler, but efficient enough to keep up with an experienced crew on a longer cruise. It is crafted in the Greenland style and has hard chines making it easy to carve. The Skylark comes standard without thigh braces and can be ordered with as an option. Rudder Free Design.
Length: 10′ | Beam: 26″ | Weight: 35 lbs | Cockpit Size: 35″ x 18.5″ | Capacity: 250 lbs | Stability: High
The boat was designed due to the popularity of the Skylark and the ever increasing demand for smaller, lighter boats. It's two feet shorter than it's sister boat and six lbs. lighter. This makes handling and car topping so much easier. Don't let a heavy boat keep you back from enjoying a beautiful afternoon on Sparks Lake! The Sky 10 has most of the qualities and features of the Skylark including a roomy cockpit and a comfortable seat and backrest. Plenty of storage space forward and aft.
Other popular models by Eddyline include the Sandpiper and the Equinox.
(Length and width changes with various models but they weigh around 35 lbs.)
The designers of this boat had one thing in mind: fun. They wanted to make a boat that would appeal to a whole range of paddlers, from first-timers to experience paddlers who want to show off their carving skills. Ranging from 10 to 13 feet and a tandem model, the Santee has a very comfortable AireStream seat with thigh pads. Hurricane uses a lightweight patended Trylon material which is very light weight and has a high-luster appearance that won't fade in the sun.
Length: 12′ | Beam: 29″ | Weight: 49 lbs | Cockpit Size: 57″ x 22″ | Capacity: 325 lbs | Stability: High
Another one of our best selling recreational kayaks here at Tumalo Creek. The Pungo features an impressive balance of manageability, stability, speed and comfort. There is plenty of storage capacity, but it is light enough to handle with easy.
Some other recommended recreational kayaks that we carry include
Emotion's Glide, Bliss and Envy 11
Necky's Manitou Sport, Rip 10 and Rip 12


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Is President Obama invested in the fight to control the Virginia Senate?
His campaign just sent out a text to supporters in Virginia urging them to vote Tuesday:
"Have you made a plan to vote in tomorrow's VA state Senate elections? Find your polling place by calling 1-800-322-1144, and bring a friend with you."


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Gintama Episode 137 English Subbed
You are watching Gintama Episode 137 English Subbed from the Gintama Anime Show. Watch or Download Gintama Episode 137 MP4 English Sub and other episodes of Gintama Streamed for Free.
"99% Of Men Are Not Confident In Confessing Their Love"
Stream Gintama Episode 137
Episode Summary: After so many attempts and failures, Sarutobi and Kondo try to play matchmaker to get the other's love for them to win a bet. In the second part, Gintoki meets Santa and Ben (his reindeer) as they reunite.


text: Verkoper: windsor-crafts-111 (9.397) 100%, Objectlocatie: Rhyl, Verzending naar: Worldwide, Objectnummer: 252635682512 This Sale is for one Moda Jelly Roll called Manderley. The pack contains 40 x 2.5" x 44" strips of fabric. The fabric pack will be sent to you via first class post after the auction end. Other jelly rolls are available in our ebay store. . Please check out our ebay store. Powered by eBay Turbo Lister All our orders are despatched using Royal Mail First Class Recorded Delivery, with the exception of Fat Quarters, which are sent via first class post, unless recorded delivery is requested. We do provide a postage guide for multiple purchases, however, when placing your order, if you are buying multiple items or multiple quantities please wait before sending payment for us to send you a combined/reduced postage invoice where we can offer you a better/more competitive rate for postage. Thank you for your custom Condition: New


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Investors betting that Rogers Communications Inc. will eventually acquire Shaw Communications Inc. could be in for disappointment.
That's the view of Veritas Investment Research analyst Neeraj Monga, who rates the possibility of such a blockbuster merger as remote, given his belief that the Rogers family would be unwilling to launch such a risky and transformative acquisition.
"I do believe a deal is highly unlikely," Mr. Monga said in an interview.
He questioned the idea in a recent note to clients that dwelled on one of the most popular guessing games on the Canadian stock market: Selecting which of the dwindling number of names in the media and communications sector will be next to be swept up in an acquisition.
Given the tangled nature of investment banking relationships on the Street, it isn't often that a report analyzes the prospects for such takeovers, but Veritas is an independent research advisory firm and doesn't face such conflicts.
Speculation about the fate of Shaw often makes the rounds because it is the last big-name communications and media company remaining in the country that would make a nice fit with an existing industry leader like Rogers.
Interest in a possible hookup involving Shaw has risen since BCE's bid for Astral Media has eliminated the other remaining large-sized company with attractive assets in the broadcasting end of the communications business.
There are other potential deals that are sometimes bandied about, but they either face incredibly long odds, such as a tie-up between industry behemoths BCE and Telus that would be unlikely to pass regulatory scrutiny on competition grounds, or would involve the Lilliputians in the industry.
Among these small fry are East Coast phone and communications company Bell Aliant, which is often touted as an acquisition for corporate parent and 44-per-cent owner BCE; a possible tie-up between Shaw and Corus Entertainment, which are both controlled by the Shaw family; or Quebec broadcaster TVA Group being swallowed up by its major owner Quebecor Media.
Another possible acquisition target is Asian Television Network; with its stable of foreign-language specialty channels, it might be of interest to one of the larger broadcasters.
One alternative to an outright Shaw-Rogers tie-up might be a scenario where Shaw spins its media assets into Corus and then sells its cable operation to Rogers.
Shaw is a prized asset because of its big base of cable operations in Western Canada, a natural complement for Toronto-based Rogers. Shaw is such a choice asset that it will likely be sold only once and would therefore be expected to receive a rich control premium.
Mr. Monga estimates the two companies, if combined, have a substantial scope to attain synergies, allowing a cut in capital and operating costs by about $500-million annually, before tax.
That's an enticing number offering a decent economic rationale for a deal going forward.
But Mr. Monga believes the main reason against a tie-up is that the Rogers family is taking a conservative stance with their namesake company and aren't willing to make a bet-the-ranch-sized acquisition. A deal for Shaw shares at even a relatively slim 25-per-cent premium to the current market price – probably the lowest amount that would get bidding going – would make the company worth more than $13.6-billion, compared to Rogers' market capitalization of around $26-billion.
It's a gamble that patriarch Ted Rogers, who died in 2008, might have contemplated because he built the firm through daring acquisitions, but not his children, Edward and Melinda, who are now calling the shots on the strategic direction for the company.
Looking at both companies on their own investment merits, Mr. Monga prefers Rogers.
Although Shaw and Rogers have similar valuations based on EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), Mr. Monga says the prospects for higher dividends are better at Rogers.
He estimates that Rogers will be paying out about 65 per cent of its free cash flow this fiscal year in dividends, compared to 86 per cent for Shaw.
At a time when many investors are interested in the possibility of dividend growth, that would give the nod to Rogers as having more flexibility to return money to shareholders.


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At Gemvara, we believe that the jewelry you wear should be as unique as you. Every beautiful Gemvara yellow gold three stone emerald jewelry design will be made just for you. It's jewelry for all life's occasions, from an anniversary or Valentine's Day to your own personal milestones and celebrations. Celebrate this Christmas with a personalized piece of jewelry that shows how much you care. Gemvara uses only the highest quality materials to craft your yellow gold three stone emerald jewelry with meticulous attention to detail. Our precious metals are recycled or responsibly mined. Emerald is the gem of love, fertility, and new beginnings. Style icons from Jacqueline Kennedy to Angelina Jolie love the dramatic statement of this vivid green gem. Gemvara's emerald has exceptional color and lasting value. In addition to being the May birthstone, emerald is the 20th anniversary gem and the 35th anniversary gem. The most popular fine jewelry alloy, 14-karat yellow gold is 58.5% pure gold. It is the most durable gold recipe with a classic golden glow. Our wide selection of yellow gold three stone emerald jewelry by Bijoux & Bijoux, Gemvara Essentials, Jeet Palavwala, and other talented designers means you can find rings, earrings, and necklaces that are exactly your style. You can also shop by style, choosing our Classic, Religious, or Pure Collections. When three-stone jewelry styles are personalized with the birthstones of those you love, they become future heirlooms for your family. When our work is done and you open that box, you'll see your design is even more beautiful when brought to life in the finest precious materials.
We can help right away. Chat with a jewelry expert now!


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Do you like to skate and want to support the Community Food Bank? Bring two cans or more of food per person and get FREE skate rental at Skate Country, Thursday nights all summer long.
When you donate to the Community Food Bank, you create a better tomorrow for a neighbor in need.
Give Today


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Feb 14 2017
Science – We Have a Reproducibility Problem
John Ioannidis has published an interesting commentary in JAMA about the current reproducibility crisis in basic and clinical scientific research. Ioannidis has built his career on examining the medical literature for overall patterns of quality. He is perhaps most famous for his study showing why most published research findings are wrong.
The goal here is to improve the science of science itself (or "metascience," like "metacognition"). As science has progressed a few things have happened. The questions are getting deeper, more complex, and more subtle. Research methods have to be more rigorous in order to deal with these more subtle questions.
The institutions of science have also grown. Science is big business, which means that there are "market forces" which push institutions, scientists, and publishers into pathways of least resistance and maximal return. These pathways may not be optimal for quality research, however.
The stakes are also getting higher. We now have professions and regulatory schemes that are supposed to be science-based. If we take medical products, for example, the public is best served is products are safe and effective and truthful in the claims made for them. We need scientific research to tell us this, and we need to know where to set the bar. How much scientific evidence is enough? We can only answer this critical question if we know how reliable different kinds of scientific evidence are.
Ioannidis summarizes many of the challenges being faced by modern scientific institutions, all of which have been discussed here many times before. First he lays out the issue in the context of reproducibility. Whether or not the findings of a study can be replicated by independent researchers is the ultimate test of the quality of that research. There is probably something wrong with findings that cannot be reproduced. He writes:
Empirical efforts of reproducibility checks performed by industry investigators on a number of top-cited publications from leading academic institutions have shown reproducibility rates of 11% to 25%. Critics pointed out that these empirical assessments did not fully adhere to advocated principles of open, reproducible research (eg, full data sharing), so the lack of reproducibility may have occurred because of the inability to exactly reproduce the experiment. However, in the newest reproducibility efforts, all raw data become available, full protocols become public before any experiments start, and article reports are preregistered. Moreover, extensive efforts try to ensure the quality of the materials used and the rigor of the experimental designs (eg, randomization). In addition, there is extensive communication with the original authors to capture even minute details of experimentation. Results published recently on 5 cancer biology topics are now available for scrutiny, and they show problems. In brief, in 3 of them, the reproducibility efforts could not find any signal of the effect shown in the original study, and differences go beyond chance; eg, a hazard ratio for tumor-free survival of 9.37 (95% CI, 1.96-44.71) in the original study vs 0.71 (95% CI, 0.25-2.05) in the replication effort. However, in 2 of these 3 topics, the experiments could not be executed in full as planned because of unanticipated findings; eg, tumors growing too rapidly or regressing spontaneously in the controls. In the other 2 reproducibility efforts, the detected signal for some outcomes was in the same direction but apparently smaller in effect size than originally reported.
Basically formal attempts at assessing reproducibility of major scientific findings show disappointingly low rates. He goes on to caution that these results are also preliminary and limited. Further, we never know if the failure to replicate is a problem with the original study, the replication, or both.
Acknowledging the uncertainty, there is enough evidence to demonstrate that there is a problem worthy of attention. Essentially the scientific community is cranking out too many poor quality studies. They are also producing high quality research, make no mistake. There is still clear progress in science, but it is floating on a sea of mediocre research.
This is a problem because it wastes limited resources. It also becomes a challenge to keep up with all the research, especially while most of it is unreliable. It may also not be obvious from the paper itself when research is unreliable. The flaws may not be evident. Meanwhile, real world decisions may hinge on the outcomes.
What specific factors are causing the problem?
Sample sizes are generally smaller, statistical literacy is often limited, there is limited external oversight or regulation, and investigator conflicts to publish significant results ("publish or perish") are probably as potent as investigator and sponsor conflicts in clinical research.
Doing rigorous research is hard, expensive, and time-consuming. I frequently hear researchers describe the study they would like to run, and then the study they are actually going to run because of limited resources. The choice often comes down to publishing one quality paper, or 3-4 mediocre ones. The pressure to publish pushes them toward the 3-4 mediocre studies. The incentive structure rewards that approach.
There is also pressure to publish positive and interesting research, including original research with surprising findings. Boring replications are less rewarded. Keeping a lab and a career going for 1-2 years before having enough data to publish a single paper can be difficult.
If we want to fix the replication problem we need to change the incentives. Researchers should be incentivized (even required) to keep all raw data, meticulously document procedures, make their protocol open-access, and even to get pre-approval for study designs before collecting data.
There is also a problem with statistical literacy. Researchers routinely engage in p-hacking without even realizing it, or perhaps they know they are "cutting corners" but not fully realize how much it invalidates their research. Part of the problem is the culture of research. There is an overreliance on a simplistic frequentist approach, where getting to a p-value of 0.05 by any means is the holy grail. This problem can be fixed by better educating researchers, better oversight, and higher standards at journals for publication.
Science still works, and advances are made by the most rigorous research which is independently replicated. It takes years, often even decades, for a research program to mature to this level, however. The conclusion, therefore, is not that science is wrong, but that science takes longer than you think. There is a long build up of low-quality preliminary research that is highly unreliable. Eventually, in some cases, we get to the kind of rigor and replication that is reliable.
Along the way, however, confusion reigns. The public is informed, often in breathless terms, about preliminary findings that are likely wrong. Regulations and standards of care may even be based upon unreliable preliminary findings. Industries have emerged on the wave of unreproducible evidence (such as the supplement industry and the alternative medicine industry).
For now we definitely need to raise the bar of how much scientific evidence is convincing.
Meanwhile we need to find ways to reduce the number of unreproducible studies and increase the percentage of reliable studies. We are simply wasting too many resources on worthless research.
I agree with all of Ioannidis's recommendations. Scientists should be publishing fewer more rigorous studies. Standards for research need to be higher, and statistical literacy needs to be much higher. We should have the goal of eliminating p-hacking entirely from published research. Academic institutions need to change their reward structure, and journal editors need to change their priorities.
Ioannidis also points out that we need to do this without imposing crushing regulations on scientists themselves. That can be counterproductive. We need to be smart, not heavy-handed. This will be challenging, but scientists generally are pretty smart people.
32 Responses to "Science – We Have a Reproducibility Problem"
Many journals list citations as a signal for how much influence a published research paper has.
Perhaps a similar trail could be maintained for reproducibility. This would create an incentive to 1) encourage and fund reproducive efforts, 2) register reproductive experiments in advance (make it a requirement for inclusion), 3) create equity for the journal of record, and 4) reward more rigorous experimental and statistical methodology in original research.
Journals could simply include an index page in each issue with updates to scores of past published titles. Assigning and maintaining a visible reproducibility score to published research would likely have a significant impact.
"Citations: 74, Reproductions: -7/+2"
# daedalus2uon 14 Feb 2017 at 10:02 am
The primary problem of reproducibility in science is that all of the users of science; the stakeholders who want science to be accurate, reproducible and reliable, are unwilling, or unable, to pay for the science they use. The secondary problem is that there are gatekeepers who ration the flow of "science" and impose charges disproportionate to the value they add for that service.
The correct way to model the trophic flows or trophic levels of science: science generation, science dissemination, and science utilization is how trophic flows are modeled in ecosystem modeling. Primary production generates biomass via photosynthesis, that biomass is then consumed by herbivores and the herbivores are consumed by carnivores. Each trophic level consumes biomass and uses that biomass to sustain itself and to generate descendants. If biomass is extracted such that the generator cannot sustain itself, then that biomass generator goes extinct, as do all consumers that depend on that biomass.
A good example is bees. Bees provide pollination services, which plants "pay for" with nectar and pollen. Plants need to generate sufficient surplus pollen and nectar to sustain a sufficient bee population to maintain the pollination services the plants require. If plants tried to get pollination services without providing nectar and pollen, bees would go extinct and then so would the plants. Similarly, if bees collected all pollen with 100% efficiency and left none to pollinate plants, the plants would go extinct and then so would the bees.
If there was a gatekeeper between the bees and the plants, that extracted a portion of the pollen and nectar the plants generated or the bees gathered, that gatekeeper could drive bees or plants to extinction by extracting so much the remaining trophic flow was insufficient to sustain the population of bees or plants.
Health care consumers have a very strong desire to have "the best" health care, which we know requires "the best" science, which we know costs money; money to train the scientists; money for laboratories, libraries, reagents; money for workers; money to gather together and publish scientific results; money to test those results to see if they are reliable and correct. Saving pennies on research, or on any aspect of the process, while squandering billions on insufficiently tested/understood harmful treatments makes no "sense", but that is what is going on.
Science research is suffering from a classic "tragedy of the commons". The collective body of knowledge and effort we call "science" isn't owned by anyone, it is held in common by all humanity. Unfortunately, only research that can be monetized is perceived to be of value, and then only by those who can monetize it.
The current practice of rewarding individual scientists is like keeping track of which individual bees carried which individual pollen grains to which particular plants which then grew into specific seeds when then grew into plants of the next generation. Rewarding individual bees would be spending too much effort keeping track of stuff that isn't really important. Plants don't need individual bees, plants need hives of bees. Plants need ecosystems with multiple pollinators to provide redundancy and resiliency.
It is the same with science. We don't need individual hot-shot scientists, we need a robust ecosystem of science. An ecosystem that nurtures new scientists along, develops their careers, funds their research and takes care of them after they are no longer productive.
# TheGorillaon 14 Feb 2017 at 11:11 am
It's almost like scientific truths are mediated by institutions, Which in turn are the product of social structure and attitudes.
# Steve Crosson 14 Feb 2017 at 12:08 pm
It is the same with science. We don't need individual hot-shot scientists, we need a robust ecosystem of science. An ecosystem that nurtures new scientists along, develops their careers, funds their research and takes care of them after they are no longer productive.
Deja Vu all over again.
It sounds like a successful democracy (or society in general) requires an educated public.
We really, really need to educate the public from an early age. Everyone must understand the importance of science and the scientific method — and the necessity of a robust infrastructure to support it. Everyone should be able to understand the difference between good and bad science. And perhaps most relevant to the current discussion, people need to realize that accepting and funding less glamorous and/or 'pure' research is a necessary part of long term success.
Note on terminology: Reproducibility and replicability are not the same thing, and given the growing focus on research quality, it is important to understand the difference. Findings are reproduced when an independent investigator takes the data set from the original study and produces findings that are identical to those originally published. A study is replicated when an independent investigator repeats the study from scratch (including collecting new, independent data) and produces findings in agreement with the original. Replicability is a higher standard than reproducibility.
# hardnoseon 14 Feb 2017 at 7:50 pm
"… we never know if the failure to replicate is a problem with the original study, the replication, or both."
Unless it shows acupuncture or homeopathy are effective — then we know the problem is with the original study.
Or if it shows vaccines or GMOs are safe — then we know the original study is correct.
# SteveAon 15 Feb 2017 at 4:25 am
jt512: "Findings are reproduced when an independent investigator takes the data set from the original study and produces findings that are identical to those originally published"
Just to be clear, is this taking the data and applying another (different/better) statistical analysis to it?
# Bill Openthalton 15 Feb 2017 at 7:15 am
daedalus2u —
IWe don't need individual hot-shot scientists, we need a robust ecosystem of science. An ecosystem that nurtures new scientists along, develops their careers, funds their research and takes care of them after they are no longer productive.
One thousand well-funded, cared-for morons in a treadmill conceived by bureaucrats do not one genius make.
"Journals could simply include an index page in each issue with updates to scores of past published titles. Assigning and maintaining a visible reproducibility score to published research would likely have a significant impact.
Citations: 74, Reproductions: -7/+2"
The problem with this is that it has a knock on effect of discouraging replication studies. If I see a result and I think "That's probably just noise", two things discourage me from attempting a replication (relative to the status quo). First, I know that the primary researcher anticipated being graded on reproducibility, making it marginally less likely that the result will not replicate. And second, I know that my own replication will be graded on the basis of whether it also replicates, so if I'm right then my own study will not replicate either. So this incentivizes more careful primary research, but probably disincentivizes replication efforts.
It would need to be combined with an independent incentive for producing replications.
In light of jt's comment above, I was fairly loose with terminology in my comment, primarily because I don't think I ever even considered that distinction. However, I don't think anything is loss by replacing all instances of "replication"/"reproduction" with one or the other.
# daedalus2uon 15 Feb 2017 at 9:28 am
Bill Openthalt, the problem is you don't know and can't know who is a hot-shot genius before they do the work, and because everyone evaluating them is not at there level, the peer reviewers can't know either; except in hindsight, and then it is too late because if they didn't get funding they never did the hot-shot genius work.
There is a quote that I like;
"Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see."
Arthur Schopenhauer
You have to play the odds, and fund a whole lot of investigators to get a few genius-like hits. You can't pick them out ahead of time. Yes, some of that research money will be "wasted" on things that maybe didn't work. That isn't a "waste", it is the cost of finding the things that do work.
Compelling everyone to chase after known things; the most flashy hyped story in the glamour journals, you will find those who are most talented at finding those flashy things. Is that what our society and our science enterprise actually need?
# Bill Openthalton 15 Feb 2017 at 10:51 am
daedalus2u —
Of course, genius is more often than not an epitaph.
The problem is that people (even geniuses) are motivated by human passions, the most powerful ones being wealth and status. Humans are monkeys before they are bees. Scientists are motivated by the sheer joy of discovery, and there are those for whom this is sufficient reward (this might occasionally be an indicator of true genius). But the pursuit of excellence in science is no different from the pursuit of excellence in art, or sports — without the tangible approval of society (money, status and honours) the sacrifices required for excellence aren't worthwhile.
# daedalus2uon 15 Feb 2017 at 11:25 am
"pursuit of excellence in science is no different from the pursuit of excellence in art"
yes, and many genius level artists were not highly compensated. They were compensated enough to survive. Many scientists trying to pursue excellence in science are not compensated enough to survive.
Scientists are being ground down by the requirement to submit endless and fruitless proposals; proposals which cannot be fairly evaluated and funded due to insufficient resources.
Hammering on people who are trying to do too much with insufficient resources isn't a way to get them to accomplish more.
# daedalus2uon 15 Feb 2017 at 11:27 am
It doesn't take "sacrifice" to do good work. It takes resources. The resources are needed before the good work can be done. Holding them out as a reward after the fact is useless.
# Bill Openthalton 15 Feb 2017 at 12:13 pm
daedalus2u —
The fact they weren't highly compensated does not mean they did not aspire to wealth, or social status.
No, doing merely good work does not need sacrifices. However, becoming very good in your field requires a lot of dedication, and yes, sacrifices.
I do agree the current funding model looks insane to the average scientist — but there are ever more "scientists" and there will never be enough money. Public funds must be attributed to the most deserving (the nepotism of yonder is no longer socially acceptable), and that requires preparing good (and attractive) proposals.
SteveA wrote:
jt512: "Findings are reproduced when an independent investigator takes the data set from the original study and produces findings that are identical to those originally published"
Just to be clear, is this taking the data and applying another (different/better) statistical analysis to it?
No. To clarify, The idea of reproducibility is to be able to repeat every step of the original analysis and produce the exact same result. The original investigators may have thrown out inconvenient outliers, sliced and diced the data to get statistical significance, and performed an inappropriate analyses, but if they properly documented every step of their work so that an independent researcher can duplicate their results, then the study was reproducible.
Reproducibility is thus not sufficient for validity. But preregistering the analysis protocol, documenting every step of the analysis, and making the original data freely available allows the original findings to be verified and the research methods criticized and corrected, if need be.
# SteveAon 16 Feb 2017 at 4:19 am
I get it now. Thanks for the info.
# daedalus2uon 16 Feb 2017 at 11:36 am
Bill Openthalt, the current funding model appears crazy to all scientists, except the ones who have "captured" the gatekeepers of science publishing and science funding and so can get all the funding they want/need.
The current metrics of determining the "value" of scientific research or a particular science publication (citation index of journals published in) are essentially worthless, and are being gamed.
Becoming very good in your field only requires "sacrifices" because science publication, science funding and advancement is set up that way. These things are controlled from the top-down by "gatekeepers" who demand "compensation" for advancement.
daedalus2u wrote:
Becoming very good in your field only requires "sacrifices" because science publication, science funding and advancement is set up that way. These things are controlled from the top-down by "gatekeepers" who demand "compensation" for advancement.
Sounds like someone's been drinking up the kool-aid of left-wing social "science."
# daedalus2uon 16 Feb 2017 at 3:11 pm
When a post docs need to work under another PI until they are in their 40's, there is insufficient opportunity to do original research and get credit for it.
In 2012 (the latest year this paper had data on), only 7.1% of NIH funding went to PIs under 41, 18.1% went to PIs under 46, 31.1% went to PIs under 51, and only 47.1% went to PIs under 56.
If you have to "sacrifice" the bulk of your career simply to stay in science, then science is not set up to foster career development and good research; it is set up to support the already successful.
daedalus2u wrote:
When a post docs need to work under another PI until they are in their 40's, there is insufficient opportunity to do original research and get credit for it.
Postdocs do not normally stay postdocs into their 40s. Not even close.
In 2012 (the latest year this paper had data on), only 7.1% of NIH funding went to PIs under 41, 18.1% went to PIs under 46, 31.1% went to PIs under 51, and only 47.1% went to PIs under 56.
Normalize those statistics and get back to me when you've got something valid.
If you have to "sacrifice" the bulk of your career simply to stay in science, then science is not set up to foster career development and good research; it is set up to support the already successful.
The system is set up to foster career development. Funding agencies and universities have start-up and early-career grants available only to new researchers. Every young American academic scientist I know has gotten at least one such grant.
# daedalus2uon 16 Feb 2017 at 5:22 pm
What do you mean by "normalize those statistics"?
When more than half of NIH funding goes to PIs older than 56, that indicates a problem to me.
I mean your statistics are meaningless unless you relate them to the proportion of scientists in each age group.
Furthermore, of course a seasoned scientist gets more funding than a new scientist. My girlfriend, for instance, is a mid-career Distinguished Professor at a major research university. Typically, she is concurrently a PI or co-PI on a half-dozen or so grants, and she manages a mature research lab comprising around a dozen grad students and postdocs. But she certainly didn't start out that way. You don't start out at the top. How could you?
A new Assistant Professor starts out with a little seed funding from her university. She will then get, typically, a single early-career grant during her first two years. She must then prove her ability as an independent scientist by using that money productively. She will be unlikely to get another grant until she does. But assuming she produces good research with the first grant, she will start to get more funding. In time, she begins to establish a successful track record, and she will be able to successfully compete for more and larger grants, allowing her to supervise more students and hire more post-docs, allowing her to further expand her research program. In the meantime, she gradually gains experience managing multiple research projects and multiple underlings.
But all this takes time. Thus it is completely natural and necessary that more funding goes to mature scientists than to young newcomers.
# Bill Openthalton 16 Feb 2017 at 7:49 pm
daedalus2u —
Tenure is not usually a scientist's most productive stage.
"Tenure is not usually a scientist's most productive stage."
I find that hard to believe, as well.
# Bill Openthalton 17 Feb 2017 at 7:09 am
jt512 —
All generalisations, including this one, are dangerous. 🙂
A system that provides tenure from an early stage might be good for the nerd-like types who on Sundays would rather be running tests in the lab than going on a date. It would also attract lots of people who like cushy jobs (cf. the public service). Allowing people to use their discretion when attributing funding works great with those who're so "honest" they don't even want to arrange a summer job for their kids, but unfortunately, most folks are more or less into nepotism.
In my (limited) experience, scientists with tenure spend far more time in meetings than in the lab, but they still get their name on the papers. YMMV.
# daedalus2uon 17 Feb 2017 at 9:27 am
If we are trying to create a stable and long term "science ecosystem", we need investigators at each and every stage of a scientific career; we need scientists in utero, as infants, as toddlers, as preschoolers, as middle schoolers, as high schoolers, as undergrads, as grads, as post docs, as PIs, as PIs with tenure.
As people age, if they cannot make a living as a scientist, they are compelled to make a living doing other things. Keeping current in science is difficult. Drop out for a few years, and your career takes a big hit.
It is not possible to "turn on" and "turn off" a science career. A scientist can do other things, but it takes years, decades of training and education to become a scientist. A non-scientist can't become a scientist in a few months. There is no way to make scientists "just in time". If you want scientists in 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, you need to start growing, educating, training them now.
To a first approximation, the number of scientists or scientist trainees in each age cohort will decline with age. The number of 36 year old scientists plus trainees can only be less than the number of 35 year old scientists plus trainees last year which can only be less than the number of 34 year old scientists and trainees from 2 years ago.
I see the "reproducibility crisis" as the expected result of trying to "sprinkle" rigor and reliability onto the scientific process at the end. Reliability has to be built-in from the beginning. The reason people are trying to "sprinkle" reliability on at the end is because they don't want to pay what it actually costs to generate reliability up front.
That is being penny wise and pound foolish. It may save pennies in reduced "cost", but because the science being generated is less reliable, the science isn't as useful and bad decisions are made because the science isn't as good as it could be. The cost of those bad decisions greatly exceeds the cost to do the science right upfront, but it is a different person who pays for the bad decisions, than who pays for the good science.
The idea that early career scientists need to "suffer" and "sacrifice" in order to become a good or great scientist is nonsense. That false meme is put out by those who profit by making early career scientists "suffer" and "sacrifice".
Making an early career scientist choose between having a career and having a family is abusive.
Bill Openthalt wrote:
In my (limited) experience, scientists with tenure spend far more time in meetings than in the lab, but they still get their name on the papers. YMMV.
In my not-so-limited experience, you could not be more wrong.
Let me rephrase that. Yes, as science professors' advance in their careers, they take on more service responsibilities, which are time consuming. But, despite these additional responsibilities, they still run research their labs. The research that gets done to get those papers written with their names on them doesn't get done without the guidance of the professor. Whom do you think the inexperienced grad students and postdocs who get to be first authors on those papers get their knowledge from? Who do you think has the scientific insight to envision those research projects in the first place? Who do you think has the knowledge, experience, and reputation to obtain the funding?
My girlfriend, who, as I mentioned, is a tenured science professor, works 80 hours a week. Those service responsibilities don't replace scientific responsibilities; they add to them.
For someone who knows nothing about what they're talking about, you sure spend a lot of words doing it.
# Bill Openthalton 17 Feb 2017 at 7:38 pm
jt512 —
I still think that giving scientists tenure from the word go (actually, making them employees) is not going to lead to better science. Removing the need for grant writing (provided unlimited funds could be anything else but apple pie in the sky hopes) would neither.
I never meant to suggest that all tenured professors were lazy so-and-sos leaching off their hapless grad students.
# Bill Openthalton 17 Feb 2017 at 7:40 pm
and that should be leeching, obviously. 😉
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text:
Fresh off a self-imposed Twitter hiatus, UFC light heavweight champion Jon Jones was all over the social media scene Saturday night during UFC on FOX 14.
As he watched his next challenger emerge in the main event, "Bones" commented on a number of items.
He is now expected to face Anthony Johnson, who finished Alexander Gustafsson in the first round, sometime in 2015.
"Man this fights going to be awesome," Jones posted. "I feel great about it."
While Jones showed "Rumble" respect, he took a couple of shots at a former "rival" in Phil Davis. Davis lost to Ryan Bader via split decision on the card.
"Wonderful?" Jones asked. "I think it's time for a new nickname."
Jones also stepped into the role of matchmaker, mentioning as possible 205-pound bout between former challenger Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier.


text:
Lorraine from Fall River, Ma. writes,
Is it advisable to move furniture (for decorating purposes) after bed bug problem has lessened and/or ended?
I live in a studio apartment. In preparing to treat a mild infestation, I moved my bed away from the wall. I'd like to re-position it and some other pieces for convenience and space considerations, but I'm afraid I may uproot anything that has not died from treatment. I've used Bedlam, Steri-Fab and DE.
If you have any remaining bedbugs in your home you want them to get moving so they will get into the insecticides that you have applied and be eliminated before they start reproducing. Moving your furniture should not negatively effect your bedbug treatment unless you are moving infested furniture into un-infested rooms. Please find our article How to Get Rid of Bed Bugs.
Answer last updated on: 05/08/2012
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Youth Mental Health First Aid
Youth Mental Health First Aid is a training program designed to teach parents, family members, educators, school staff and other adults who work with youth how to help a young person (age 12-18) who is developing a mental health problem or experiencing a mental health crisis.
This free evidence-based training program teaches signs, symptoms, and risk factors of mental illnesses and addictions. Participants learn to identify multiple types of professional and self-help resources for young people with a mental illness or addiction, while increasing their confidence in and likelihood to help someone in distress.
The 8 hour training is flexible and can be accomplished in two 4 hour sessions. If you are interested in learning more about how you can help a young person in crisis, complete this form. Trainings are offered as interest increases. Training participants will receive a free copy of the latest edition (2016) of Mental Health First Aid USA: For Adults Assisting Young People—a manual that highlights each topic covered in the training, comes with resources for mental health professionals, and covers signs/symptoms of mental illnesses.
For more information also visit Mental Health First Aid.
RiverStone Health
Billings, Montana
Fax: 406.651.6418


text:
|18 May 2014
Corrupted Pictures in the Local Disk
Recently I had a problem with my hard disk, in the boot log it said "There is a problem with your hard disk". Now I am having a problem with one of my local disk. The local disk contains only pictures and most of the pictures are corrupted.
The corrupted pictures looks nice and good when it is viewed in large icon but when you double click it half of the pictures are either scrambled or looks grey or fully pixelated or invalid image.
After a disk check the occupied disk space became less and all the folders in the local disk are having a small lock symbol at the bottom.
Please help, even if I put a new folder containing pictures in the local disk, it also gets corrupted !!
The bigger picture is double clicked and the smaller picture is viewed in extra large icons.
|My System Specs
|18 May 2014
OK, I remember your name.
About a week ago you started a thread There is a problem with the Hard Disk but never returned to tell us what has happened.
Is that problem resolved? If so how?
|My System Specs
|18 May 2014
Thanks for observing my posts but the problem in the hard disk is not yet solved. I have temporarily disabled S.M.A.R.T function in the bios since every time it shows up. I have planned to take a backup and erase everything in the hard disk.
So any solutions for this thread?
|My System Specs
|18 May 2014
Is this HDD which you refer as a Local Disk an internal HDD apart from your system drive which you have indicated is problematic??
Please plug-out all connected USB drives including pen drives and post a screenshot of Windows Disk Management showing your internal drives in confirmation.
Next copy some of the photos which you see corrupted onto a pen drive and view those on another computer. Are those OK or appear corrupted in the other PC too?
|My System Specs
|19 May 2014
Well I will have to try that.
|My System Specs
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ORNSKOLDSVIK, Sweden -- Peter Forsberg will help finance a
$23 million hockey arena in his northern Swedish hometown, his
father Kent said Friday.
Forsberg, who grew up playing for local team Modo before
becoming a superstar in the NHL with the Colorado Avalanche, will
own 40 percent of the new arena along with his father, according to a news release. The Modo club, which will have the 6,500-seat arena
as its new home ice, will own the other 60 percent.
"For me, and especially for Peter, it has always felt natural
to help realize the arena of the future and secure the future of
hockey in Ornskoldsvik," Kent Forsberg said at a news conference.
The new arena, which has yet to be named, is scheduled to be
completed in 2006.
Forsberg has said he will likely play for Modo next season if
the NHL players go on strike.
Ornskoldsvik, a seaport with some 31,000 people, is located
halfway between the Swedish capital Stockholm and the Arctic
Circle. The town has produced a wealth of hockey talents, including
Vancouver Canucks stars Markus Naslund and twins Daniel and Henrik Sedin.
Forsberg was the 2003 NHL MVP, and has been one of the most
popular athletes in Sweden ever since he scored the winning penalty
shot against Canada in the 1994 Olympic Games at Lillehammer,
It is not the first time he has poured money into promoting his
hometown. Last summer, he opened a $5 million golf course on what
used to be an agricultural college outside Ornskoldsvik.
Forsberg will spearhead a Team Sweden squad that takes on
archrival Finland in the World Cup Saturday.


text:
Monday, December 20, 2010
TODAY'S Contemporary Abstract Painting Gallery #35
TODAY'S Contemporary Abstract Painting Gallery #35
Contemporary Abstract Acrylic Painting
This is the 35th in a series featuring and showcasing some of my contemporary abstract art paintings, drawings and digital experimentations.
Today's title is "A Complex History". Much of human history came from small discoveries- fire, the wheel, tools, agriculture, utensils. some shared, some kept in secret, others obscured by time. Some civilizations create massive enduring monuments, some societies are excellent sailors and fishermen, but live in primitive huts. Other great societies fly men to the moon, while nomadic tribes exist in the desert on a handful of grains. Such is the diverse and complex history of man...
From an unlikely series of structures, new forms emerge from them. Are they a composition of random selection or survival of the fittest or the smartest?
Using the gallery approach demonstrates how abstract artworks can be displayed on walls in a variety of colors.
The frame around the paintings are used for design purposes to enhance the paintings, the frame is not for sale.
For more information about purchases and a more comprehensive view of my contemporary abstract art drawings, paintings, collages and digital fusions, visit -
more artworks on video can be seen at- http://youtube.com/Emooyoung
or for more information write me at
Posted by Errol Moo Young at 2:12 PM
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