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SCM Tutorials :Supply Chain Management, SCRC Articles Library
SCM Tutorials: Supply Chain Management Articles
The World of Global Procurement Q&A with John Zapko, VP of Global Procurement, Lenovo
Questions and Answers on Global Procurement with John Zapko, VP of Global Procurement, Lenovo Questions and Answers on Global Procurement with John Zapko, VP of Global Procurement, Lenovo from scrc on Vimeo. Challenges of Global Procurement Rob Handfield (Co-Director of SCRC): Hi, I'm here with John Zapko, vice president of global procurement. John has procurement authority over all software, Latin America, and emerging markets. And we're here with John to get his views of what's going on in the world of global procurement. John, what do you see as being, in your world, the big challenges for
Beyond Procurement Survey
We are working with a team of global researchers conducting a study called ""Beyond Procurement":https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/bpsusa", which focuses on how organizations are moving to create the next level of procurement excellence. Please consider taking this survey if you have any duties relevant to purchasing or supply management. The survey should take no more than 10 minutes maximum.
Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part II: Probabilistic and Ensemble Forecasting
In forecasting for demand there are two predominant methods of modeling available: deterministic and probabilistic. Normally just saying the names of these techniques is enough to turn someone off from the topic, however, it is important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each. Deterministic is simply defined as a forecast in which the results of the model are completely determined by present conditions (Lewis 2005). Simply stated, forecasted demand is completely and solely dependent on what we know right here and now. This sounds somewhat absurd since we know market volatility and global economic conditions can change the demand outlook
Demand Forecasting: A Cross Discipline Perspective Part I: Model Output Statistics (MOS)
This paper will highlight some of the numerical modeling techniques used in weather forecasting that can be applied to improve business forecasting. Demand and weather forecasting are comparable in so much as they are both complex environments in which many variables influence the outcome. The weather community has developed many advanced modeling techniques to provide more accurate forecasts, however, it has been the advancement of computing power and technology that has held back many of these techniques from becoming operational. With the need to improve forecasts while waiting for technology to improve, several modeling methods have been developed which produce
Introduction: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
Introduction Learning objectives What is CPFR? Origins in ECR Typical manufactururer-retailer relationship prior to ECR Core elements of ECR How CPFR differs from ECR Another way to think about ECR and CFPR Learning Objectives By the end of this module, you will be able to: Define CPFR and explain how it builds upon earlier Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) practices Describe the CPFR process model, including the major processes and underlying collaboration tasks Explain how collaboration is built into the major processes of the model Discuss the organizational implications of CPFR, including category management What is CPFR? Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and
Introduction: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
INTRODUCTION Learning Objectives Tutorial Outline Learning Objectives By then end of this module, you will be able to: Describe the functions and drivers of inventory. Distinguish between independent demand and dependent demand inventory items. Discuss the basic workings of two classic independent demand inventory models: Period review Perpetual review systems Calculate the economic order quantity (EOQ) and reorder point (ROP) for a perpetual review system. Tutorial Outline Functions & drivers of inventory Independent vs. dependent demand inventory systems Two classic independent demand systems Period review Perpetual review systems EOQ, reorder point, and safety stock analysis
SUMMARY: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
SUMMARY Inventory serves a useful purpose in the supply chain. That said, firms can help minimize the need for inventory by carefully managing those factors that drive inventory levels up. Inventory items can be divided into two main types: Independent demand and dependent demand items. The systems for managing these two types if inventory differ significantly. The two classic systems for managing independent demand inventory are periodic review and perpetual review systems. The economic order quantity (EOQ) is the order quantity that minimizes total holding and ordering costs for the year. Even if all the assumptions don't hold exactly,
CPFR Model: 3. Execution: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
CPFR Model: 3. Execution CPFR Execution Order Generation Overview Order Generation Steps Order Generation Output h2. CPFR Execution (VICS CPFR Model) Place orders, prepare and deliver shipments, receive and stock product on retail shelves, record sales transactions and make payments. Also called the order to cash cycle. Order generation Transitions order forecasts into firm demand Order fulfillment Producing, shipping, delivering, and stocking the products h2. Order Generation Overview This step marks the transformation of the order forecast into a committed order. Either the seller or buyer can handle order generation depending on competencies, systems, and resources. Regardless of who completes this
References: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
References CPFR Overview: http://www.vics.org/committees/cpfr/CPFR_Overview_US-A4.pdf VICS has also put together two business process guides of direct interest to GSK, that build upon the generic model: DC replenishment collaboration http://www.vics.org/standards/DC_Replenishment_Collaboration_-_Business_Process_Guide_Final.pdf Retail event collaboration http://www.vics.org/standards/Retail_Event_Collaboration_-_Business_Process_Guide.pdf
CPFR Model: 1. Strategy and Planning: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)
CPFR Model: 1. Strategy and Planning What Does CPFR Strategy and Planning Involve? Collaboration Arrangement Steps Collaboration Arrangement Output Joint Business Plan Steps Joint Business Plan Output h2. What Does CPFR Strategy and Planning Involve? (VICS CPFR Model) Establish the ground rules for the collaborative relationship. Determine product mix and placement, and develop event plans for the period. Collaboration arrangement Setting the business goals and defining the scope for the relationship Assigning roles, responsibilities, checkpoints and escalation procedures Joint business plan Identifies the significant events that affect supply and demand, such as promotions, inventory policy changes, store openings / closings, and product
Organizational Implications: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
Organizational Implications Conventional Organizational Roles New Organizational Roles under CPFR Category Management Category Management – 5 Components 1. Pricing 2. New Product Launch 3. Category Dynamics 4. Competitive (Cross-Category) Analysis 5. Promotion Efficiency & Effectiveness Conventional Organizational Roles h2. New Organizational Roles under CPFR Category Management Product categories are managed as strategic business units. Category management allows more focused assessment, and hence deeper understanding, of consumer buying patterns, product sales and market trends Category manager given ultimate responsibility and authority for: Assortment decisions Inventory levels Shelf space allocation Promotions and buying Category Management fits in perfectly with CPFR, and is part of building a joint business plan. Category
CPFR Model: 4. Analysis - Performance Assessment and Collaboration: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting
CPFR Model: 4. Analysis – Performance Assessment and Collaboration Performance Assessment Overview Resolving the Exceptions May Require a Negotiation! How Collaboration Is Built into the Model CPFR Collaborative Roles h2. Performance Assessment Overview (VICS CPFR Model) Performance assessment is essential to any understanding of collaboration benefits. The specific measures can vary from one situation to the next, but generally fall into two categories: Operational measures: fill rates, service levels, forecast accuracy, lead times, inventory turns, etc. Financial measures: Costs, item and category profitability, etc. In reality, partners are often reluctant to share financial measures and estimates of "profitability" can vary widely, depending
Summary: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
Summary CPFR has its roots in Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), but goes further by formalizing the planning, sales and order forecasting, and exception handling activities. The CPFR process model consists of 4 major processes: Strategy and planning Demand and supply management Execution Analysis The 4 major processes are further subdivided into 8 collaboration tasks. Each collaboration task has corresponding enterprise tasks, most of which retailers and manufacturers are already doing. CPFR provides the framework for coordinating these efforts. To implement CPFR, many manufacturers use cross-functional customer teams, while many retailers use cross-functional category teams. Such teams have the benefit of simplifying both inter-firm
CPFR Model: 4. Analysis - Exception Management: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment
CPFR Model: 4. Analysis – Exception Management CPFR Analysis Exception Management Overview Identify forecast exceptions Identify the exceptions Resolve the exceptions Exception Management Output h2. CPFR Analysis (VICS CPFR Mode) Monitor planning and execution activities for exception conditions. Aggregate results, and calculate key performance metrics. Share insights and adjust plans for continuously improved results. Exception management Active monitoring for pre-defined "out-of-bounds" conditions Performance assessment Calculation of key metrics to evaluate achievement of business goals, uncover trends, or develop alternative strategies h2. Exception Management Overview Exceptions need to be handled in both sales forecasts and order forecasts. The exception criteria are agreed to
CPFR Model: 2. Demand & Supply Management: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment
*h2. CPFR Model: 2. Demand and Suply Management What Is CPFR Demand and Supply Management? Sales Forecasting Overview Sales Forecasting Steps Sales Forecasting Output Order Planning / Forecasting Overview Order Planning / Forecasting Steps EXAMPLE: How Sales Forecasts Drive Order Forecasts … Order Planning / Forecasting Output h2. What Is CPFR Demand and Supply Management? (VICS CPFR Model) Project POS demand and order and shipment requirements over the planning horizon. Sales forecasting Projects demand at the point of sale Order planning / forecasting Determines future product order & delivery requirements based upon the sales forecast. Takes into account inventory positions, transit lead times, shipment quantities, and
REFERENCES: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
REFERENCES Most introductory textbooks in Operations and Supply Chain Management offer a good discussion of inventory systems. Inventory functions and drivers, independent demand models, and safety stock calculations are routinely covered in these books. One possible source: Cecil Bozarth and Robert Handfield, "Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management," Prentice-Hall, 2006. ISBN 0139446206 In addition, there are many books that deal exclusively with inventory management, some of which are decidedly more academic in nature than others.
REORDER POINT FORMULA: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
REORDER POINT FORMULA The reorder point formula allows us to determine the safety stock (SS) needed to achieve a certain cycle service level. In general, the longer the lead times are, and the greater the variability of demand and lead times, the more SS we will need. Revisiting the Reorder Point Formula Fill Rate vs. Cycle Service Level h2. Revisiting the Reorder Point Formula Where the formula came from is not important, but notice the implications for safety stock: What happens if lead time is constant? What happens if the demand rate is constant? What happens if both are constant?
CPFR Model: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR): A Tutorial
CPFR Model As defined by Voluntary Inter-Industry Commerce Standards (VICS) Association Why the Need for a Standard Process Model? The CPFR Process Model CPFR: Key Tenets h2. Why the Need for a Standard Process Model? CPFR is being implemented at thousands of companies across the globe. Many companies, such as GSK, are implementing CPFR with multiple retailers A standard vision is needed to provide a common understanding of: Terminology and definitions The steps needed to implement CPFR Data and information system requirements Best practices The process model described here is from the 18 May 2004 overview provided by VICS h2. The CPFR
SAFETY STOCK ANALYSIS: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
SAFETY STOCK ANALYSIS EOQ tells us HOW MUCH to order…but WHEN should we order? p. Safety StockWhat Happens when either Demand or Lead Time Varies?What is the Chance of a Stockout?EXAMPLEFinding Z h2. Safety Stock When both lead time & demand are constant, you know exactly what the reorder point is … Under these assumptions: Reorder point = demand during lead time Where = demand per time period = lead time What Happens when either Demand or Lead Time Varies? Variances are caused by changes in demand rates and lead times. Additional inventory beyond amount needed to meet "average" demand
PERPETUAL SYSTEM: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
PERPETUAL SYSTEM p. The two classic systems for managing independent demand inventory are periodic review and perpetual review systems. This section focuses on the Perpetual System. What is a Perpetual System? Q and Average Inventory Level What is the "Best" Order Size Q? h2. What is a Perpetual System? Inventory level is constantly monitored and a new order place when a pre-established reorder point R is met h2. Q and Average Inventory Level As the order quantity doubles so does average inventory (= Q/2) h2. What is the "Best" Order Size Q? Inventory related costs Order preparation costs / setup costs Inventory
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ) MODEL: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ) MODEL The economic order quantity (EOQ) is the order quantity that minimizes total holding and ordering costs for the year. Even if all the assumptions don't hold exactly, the EOQ gives us a good indication of whether or not current order quantities are reasonable. What is the EOQ Model? What Would Holding and Ordering Costs Look Like for the Years? Total Relevant* Cost (TRC) Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) EOQ Formula Same Problem What is the EOQ Model? Cost Minimizing "Q" Assumptions: Relatively uniform & known demand rate Fixed item cost Fixed ordering and holding cost Constant
FUNCTIONS AND DRIVERS OF INVENTORY: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
FUNCTIONS AND DRIVERS OF INVENTORY p. Inventory serves a useful purpose in the supply chain. That said, firms can help minimize the need for inventory by carefully managing those factors that drive inventory levels up. Functions of Inventory Four Inventory Drivers h2. Functions of Inventory Transit stock / pipeline inventory Cycle stock Safety stock (buffer inventory) Anticipation inventory Others Smoothing inventories Hedge inventories h2. Four Inventory Drivers Demand / Capacity Mismatches Smoothing inventories Demand / Process Volume Mismatches Cycle stocks Demand / Supply Uncertainty Safety stocks Demand / Supply chain lead time mismatches Anticipation inventories
Understanding Legistlation Related to Procurement: Procurement : A Tutorial
Understanding Legistlation Related to Procurement p. ContractsLaws of AgencyPersonal LiabilityInternational Laws Affecting Global PurchasingContracts vs AgreementsBetsy and Mimi's Contrac – An EXAMPLE Contracts Contract "A promise or a set of promises for the breach of which the law gives a remedy, or the performance of which the law in some way recognizes as a duty." Contractual Relationship A contractual relationship between two or more commercial entities allows the shifting of risk between the entities in order to obtain the stated purpose of the contract A contract is a tool by which individuals establish a private set of rules to govern
PERIODIC REVIEW SYSTEM: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
PERIODIC REVIEW SYSTEM The two classic systems for managing independent demand inventory are periodic review and perpetual review systems. This section focuses on the Periodic Review System. What is a Periodic Review System? EXAMPLE 1 EXAMPLE 2 h2. What is a Periodic Review System? Classic independent inventory system Inventory levels start at some restocking level, R At regular time intervals (ex. – 3 days, two weeks, etc.), the inventory level is reviewed. This new inventory level is called I. Some amount, Q, is added to bring the inventory level back up to R: Q = R – I EXAMPLE 1 A retailer reviews the inventory for a
The New Purchasing and Supply Management Workplace: Procurement : A Tutorial
The New Purchasing and Supply Management Workplace Social and Workplace Changes Sourcing Organizational Structures Key Sourcing Organizational Features Integrating the Supply Chain Procurement's Changing Role Separating Purchasing Authority Sourcing's New Look Social and Workplace Changes The need to pursue strategic sourcing will create instability within purchasing and supply organizations. Movement of purchasing professionals between organizations often results in compensation discrepancies as new hires arrive with higher pay and benefits. The need to elevate the level of purchasing professional often results in "buying" talent in the open market at a premium price. New employees are increasingly demanding to work
The Procurement Process - e-Procurement: Procurement : A Tutorial
The Procurement Process – e-Procurement e-Procurement What is Solicitation? What are Online Reverse Auctions? Benefits of e-Procurement e-Procurement e-Procurement is the term used to describe the automation through web-enabled tools of many elements of the procurement process this includes: The issue, collection, and analysis of solicitations Execution and analysis Award of business via reverse auction e-Procurement tools usually have the following key elements: Solicitation development tools RFI RFP RFQ Reverse auction capabilities What is solicitation? Solicitation is the process of seeking information, proposals, and quotations from suppliers. While solicitations can be verbal, quality and consistency is enhanced if the process is
INDEPENDENT VS DEPENDENT DEMAND INVENTORY SYSTEMS - An EXAMPLE: Inventory Management Models : A Tutorial
*h2. INDEPENDENT VS DEPENDENT DEMAND INVENTORY SYSTEMS – An EXAMPLE Inventory items can be divided into two main types: Independent demand and dependent demand items. The systems for managing these two types if inventory differ significantly. EXAMPLE What is an Independent Demand Item? What is a Dependent Demand Item? Continuing with the EXAMPLE... Summary h2. EXAMPLE A pharmaceutical firm offers a new drug: The firm can try to predict demand for the drug, or even try to manipulate demand through pricing incentives and other marketing efforts, BUT... …ultimately, demand is determined by the marketplace. h2. What is a Dependent Demand
The Procurement Process - Implementing the Plan: Procurement : A Tutorial
The Procurement Process – Implementing the Plan p. Bidding or Negotiation?Purchase ApprovalBlanket Purchase OrdersUpdate Supplier ScorecardContinuous Improvement Bidding or Negotiation? Purchaser sends a request for quotation (RFQ). Bids are evaluated based on lowest price, so price must be the major criteria. If non-price variables exist, negotiation may be more appropriate. Bidding may also be used to narrow the field prior to a negotiation. Competitive bidding is effective when: Volume is high enough to justify this method of business The specifications or requirements are clear to the seller The seller must know or have the ability to estimate accurately the cost
The Procurement Process - Creating a Sourcing Plan: Procurement : A Tutorial
The Procurement Process – Creating a Sourcing Plan IntroductionIdentify OpportunitiesAnalyze the SituationUndertake Strategic AnalysisCase StudyCreate a Strategic Sourcing Plan Introduction The Procurement Process Business requirement for product or service User need for product or service Identify Opportunities Opportunities are usually triggered by a business requirement for a product or service. Material requirements might include: Equipment Components Raw materials Completely finished products Service requirements might include: Computer programmers Hazardous waste handlers Transportation carriers Maintenance service providers Users (also called internal customers) identify a need for material or service requirements, and communicate this need to purchasing. Analyze the Situation Situation analysis can include �
Role of Procurement within an Organization: Procurement : A Tutorial
Role of Procurement within an Organization Overview Key Procurement Objectives: OBJECTIVE 1 – Support Operational Requirements OBJECTIVE 2 – Manage the Procurement Process and the Supply Base Efficiently and Effectively OBJECTIVE 3 – Develop Strong Relationships with Other Functional Groups OBJECTIVE 4 – Develop Integrated Purchasing Strategies That Support Organizational Strategies, Goals and objectives Case Study Overview The objectives of a world-class procurement organization move far beyond the traditional belief that procurement's primary role is to obtain goods and services in response to internal needs. To understand how this role is changing, we must understand what purchasing is all about, starting with the primary objectives of a
Types of Goods and Services Purchased: Procurement : A Tutorial
Types of Goods and Services Purchased Raw Materials Semi-finished Products and Components Finished Products Maintenance, Repair, and Operating Items Production Support Items Services Capital Equipment Transportation and Third-Party Purchasing h2. Raw Materials h2. Semi-finished Products and Components h2. Finished Products Maintenance, Repair, and Operating Items h2. Production Support Items h2. Services h2. Capital Equipment h2. Transportation and Third-Party Purchasing
Introduction: Procurement : A Tutorial
Introduction Overview Learning Objectives Tutorial Outline h2. Overview A world-class procurement staff must continuously work to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of what we call the procurement process. This is the process used to: Identify opportunities. Identify business requirements. Analyze the business, supply chain and suppliers to generate options. Create a strategic sourcing plan. Implement the plan through negotiation of value-adding agreements. Establish on-going supplier management and continuous improvement in performance. The challenges in ensuring that this process occurs effectively and efficiently is the theme of this tutorial. Until an organization is able to streamline the day-to-day procurement process, other
References: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
References Most introductory textbooks in Operations and Supply Chain Management offer a good discussion of forecasting models. Techniques such as time series models, regression, and measures of forecasting accuracy are routinely covered in these books. One possible source: Cecil Bozarth and Robert Handfield, Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, Prentice-Hall, 2006. ISBN 0139446206 Planners who are interested in a more advanced treatment of forecasting might want to check devoted to business forecasting. One possible source: John Hanke, Arthur Reitsch, and Dean Wichern, Business Forecasting, Prentice-Hall, 2001. ISBN 0130878103.
Summary: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Summary Forecasting is a critical part of CPFR. Fortunately, there are a number of well-developed tools and strategies for developing forecasts. Avoid forecasting values when you can calculate them. For example, in an ideal world, we would only forecast POS demand, and use these numbers to calculate the replenishment forecasts at the DCs, and the order forecasts at the plants. Quantitative forecasting techniques are best-suited to situations where historical data exists and the past is considered a good indicator of what will happen in the future. Qualitative forecasting methods are used when the situation is vague and little data exists
Q2 Forecasting: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Q2 Forecasting What Is Q2 Forecasting? Quantitative-Qualitative Forecasting Basic ideas behind Q2 forecasting: Wherever possible, forecasters should first develop a quantitative forecast, then use this for the basis for more qualitative analysis. Historical data is never a perfect indicator of what will happen in the future, but this doesn't excuse us from considering it! By following the Q2 principle, forecasters can: Keep their intuition grounded in the data. Expose the assumptions behind qualitative forecasts (ex. – "Why do we expect demand to be three times higher than last year?").
3 - Step Process: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
3 – Step Process STEP 1: Divide Items into Three Major Categories STEP 2: Apply the simplest tools needed to do the job STEP 3: Spend effort on the "difficult few" Other Considerations Q2 Forecasting h2. STEP 1: Divide Items into Three Major Categories STEP 2: Apply the simplest tools needed to do the job STEP 3: Spend effort on the "difficult few" Other Considerations Begin to develop the database needed to support quantitative analysis: Sales and order history Promotions, price discounts offered, etc. Measure forecast accuracy and put in place a formal review step to review what forecasting methods did / did not work Reassign items to categories /
Qualitative Methods :Measuring Forecast Accuracy : A Tutorial
Qualitative Methods Common Qualitative Forecasting Methods EXAMPLE: Life Cycle analogy Analyzing the Life Cycle Data for the Previous Version Questions to Consider When Using the Life Cycle Analogy to Forecast for a New Product Common Qualitative Forecasting Methods Executive and outsider opinions Sales force composite This involves having product managers or sales reps developing individual forecasts, and then adding them up Panel consensus & Delphi method Both methods have experts work together to develop forecasts The Delphi method has experts develop forecasts individually, then share their findings. The process is repeated until a consensus emerges. Life cycle analogy Used when the
Multiple Regression: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Multiple Regression Advanced techniques can be used when there is trend or seasonality, or when other factors (such as price discounts) must be considered. What is Multiple Regression? Resulting Forecast Model Comparing Multiple Regression Model Results against Historic Demand h2. What is Multiple Regression? Analogous to single regression, but allows us to have multiple predictor variables: Y = a + b1*X1 + b2*X2 + b3*X3 … *Practically speaking, there is a limit to the number of predictor variables you can have without violating some statistical rules. In most cases, 2 or 3 predictor variables should be plenty. In this case, we have 24 months of
Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Measuring Forecast Accuracy How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy? Measures of Forecast Accuracy Mean Forecast Error (MFE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Tracking Signal Other Measures How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy? Used to measure: Forecast model bias Absolute size of the forecast errors Can be used to: Compare alternative forecasting models Identify forecast models that need adjustment (management by exception) Measures of Forecast Accuracy Error = Actual demand – Forecast OR et = At – Ft h2. Mean Forecast Error (MFE) For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values: Ideal value = 0; MFE > 0, model tends to under-forecast MFE < 0, model
Single Regression: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Single Regression Advanced techniques can be used when there is trend or seasonality, or when other factors (such as price discounts) must be considered. What is Single Regression? EXAMPLE: 16 Months of Demand History EXAMPLE: Building a Regression Model to Handle Trend and Seasonality EXAMPLE: Causal Modeling h2. What is Single Regression? Develops a line equation y = a + b(x) that best fits a set of historical data points (x,y) Ideal for picking up trends in time series data Once the line is developed, x values can be plugged in to predict y (usually demand) For time series models, x
Double Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Double Exponential Smoothing What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? Time Series with Trend: Double Exponential Smoothing h2. What Is Double Exponential Smoothing? …like regular exponential smoothing, except includes a component to pick up trends. Time Series with Trend: Double Exponential Smoothing Formula Ft = Unadjusted forecast (before trend) Tt = Estimated trend AFt = Trend-adjusted forecast Ft = a* At-1 + (1- a) * (Ft-1 + Tt-1) Tt = b* (At-1-Ft-1) + (1- b) * Tt-1 AFt = Ft + Tt To start, we assume no trend and set our "initial" forecast to Period 1 demand. … We then calculate our forecast for Period 2. … But Period 2 demand turns out to be 20. What is the
Exponential Smoothing: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Exponential Smoothing What is Exponential Smoothing? Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3 h2. What is Exponential Smoothing? A type of weighted moving averaging model Part of many forecasting packages; ideal for developing forecasts of lots of smaller items Needs only three numbers: Ft-1 = Forecast for the period before current time period t At-1 = Actual demand for the period before current time period t a = Weight between 0 and 1 Formula As a gets closer to 1, the more weight put on the most recent demand number h2. Exponential Smoothing Forecaset with a = .3
Time Series Models: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Time Series Models Time Series Models Time Series Components of Demand… Basic Idea Behind Time Series Models Moving Average Models Table of Forecasts & Demand Values… ... and Resulting Graph What Are Time Series Models Quantitative forecasting models that use chronologically arranged data to develop forecasts. Assume that what happened in the past is a good starting point for predicting what will happen in the future. These models can be designed to account for: Randomness Trend Seasonality effects Advantages Can quickly be applied to a large number of products Forecast accuracy measures can be used to identify forecasts that need adjustment (management
Basic Rules of Forecasting: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Basic Rules of Forecasting p. Forecasts Forecasts Are No Substitue for Calculated Values Two Distinct Approaches to Forecasting h2. What Are the Basic Rules of Forecasts Forecasts are almost always wrong. Important to measure forecast accuracy and take actions to improve when necessary Near-term forecasts tend to be more accurate. Forecasts for groups (product categories, multiple stores, etc.) tend to be more accurate. Forecasts are no substitute for calculated values. h2. Forecasts Are No Substitue for Calculated Values Recall our earlier example… POS forecasts were used to calculate the replenishment forecast at the DC Disconnect h2. Two Distinct Approaches to
Introduction: Approaches to Forecasting : A Tutorial
Introduction p. Learning Objectives Requirements of Forecasting Section Outline Learning Objectives By the end of this module, you will be able to: List the basic rules of forecasting, and explain what is meant by the rule, "Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand." Develop and interpret simple time series forecasting models. Develop and interpret simple and multiple regression forecasting models, and use regression to develop both time series and causal forecasts models. Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy. Explain when quantitative versus qualitative forecasting techniques should be used, and the advantages and disadvantages of each. Develop forecasting strategies for
E-Procurement and the Purchasing Process
Many organizations are beginning to re-evaluate their purchasing processes, and identify new types of e-procurement tools that will meet their needs. This summer, Karl Mundt and Mark Benson have been working with PPD to map out their purchasing process, and identify discrepancies in the process that may exist. The purchasing process basically involves the following elements: Identify or anticipate material or service needs. Evaluate potential suppliers. Select suppliers. Release and receive purchase requirements. Continuously measure and manage supplier performance. These stages may vary in different organizations, depending on whether purchasing is sourcing a new or repetitively purchased item, and also
Is Your Procurement Organization Ready for Outsourcing?
It is notable that the success of an outsourced project is not only dependent on technological capability, but is more dependent on the service organization to effectively communicate with its client and to stimulate open channels of communication – greater information will in every situation result in a higher likelihood of success – again, there is voluminous research conducted by our research and that of others that clearly indicates this relationship . In most cases, this task falls upon procurement. In many companies today, procurement is suddenly finding itself tasked with managing a highly complex relationship, without the required resources required to do
Measuring the Maturity of Procurement Practices
Many companies today are deploying a myriad of procurement strategies, including: Applying reverse auctions to all commodities Apply strategic alliances with all commodities Outsourcing of key business processes Leveraging and supply base reduction Not all of these strategies have been successful. In fact, there is perhaps some confusion regarding how to proceed and which strategies are appropriate at what times. Clearly, there is a need to understand what makes sense, given the relative maturity of procurement organizations. The reality is, many organizations are very new at outsourced relationships, and like any technological innovation, we need to learn how to apply
Procurement Technology and Trust
For the average company, purchased products and services account for more than 60% of their total costs (1). That makes procurement a likely candidate for cost reduction efforts. Procurement technology is promoted as a way to reduce these costs. But it is unlikely to work in the absence of a trusting relationship (2). Purchasing accounts for a large percentage of most companies' total costs. Organizations know procurement can lessen their profitability with, for example, costs related to processing requests-for-proposal or invoices (1). So it makes sense that they are examining the procurement function and looking for ways to reduce related transaction costs. However, organizations
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Registration for 2017 will open in December 15th, 2016. Please Register HERE.
Fees for the Black Squirrel Trail Half Marathon will be as follows.
Dec 15 – April 30: $60
May 1 – July 31: $70
Aug 1 – Sep 6: $85
***The race is currently sold out but we will turn over wait list spots for drop outs up until the end of day Wednesday 9/6. There will be no registration at packet pickup or race morning.***
What You Get in Return for Your Registration Fee
- A kick-ass, well marked, and challenging course.
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- Well stocked aid stations.
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- Gender specific race T-shirt (Not guaranteed for late entries after 8/27)
- Pint glass finisher award and overall and age group awards.
- Post race pancake breakfast and raffle.
Cancellation & Refund Policy
Entries are non-refundable and non-transferable. In the event the race is cancelled due to extreme weather, fire, or for some other unforeseeable event, we cannot offer refunds or credits.

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text:
From: China
Couple account
Canada, Mexico
01/05/2017 - 01/09/2017
Hey! I am Una, from Shanghai, China.
I am traveling in Canada now and seeking for different project to get involved with. I am in Yellowknife Canada for my workaway trip till the end of April, I am expecting to have more outdoors experience. Open for different experience and always love to try new things.
Being a freelancer photographer provides me the chance to meet up new people and travel a bit more than usual. Born and raised up in major city doesn't provide me too much opportunity to get into wild, but I believe there is a part of me always trying to get back to natural. That's also the reason why I am traveling right now. All photos from my gallery are taken by me.
I am willing to use my photography as part of work-trade deal, portfolio:
Here are my previous volunteer experience
- Volunteer for a remote Wilderness Resort in Yellowknife, Northern Canada
Work Includes:
• Aurora and Photography Watch
• Hospitality, Guest Services, Guest Activities, Guiding Tours, Translating
• House Keeping, Laundry, Systems, Environmental Practices, Manual Labor
- Volunteer for eco-project, the Dream Island 2016, in Vladivostok, Russia. the project is aimed at preserving the nature's profusion of Primorye islands, remote from the the mainland and secure sustained purity of the insular territory.
- Photographer for Brochures shooting for "Teach for china", which is a Chinese non-profit organization that seeks to eliminate educational inequity in China.
- Events photographer for KRASS, a NGO organization that work in the field of cultural, artistic and medial funding for culturally disadvantaged children and adolescents.
General Maintenance
Cooking / shopping
Help with Eco project
Help in the house
Animal care
Helping with Tourists
Charity work
Language practice
Art project
Help with Computers / internet
professional photography
english, mandarin
I enjoy wild life, eco friendly environment. and always love to meet up with new community and people .
Driver's licence
Special dietary requirements


text:
It's been a rough year for the Colorado Rockies. They got out to a nice start, but things have been downhill from there. As of now they own a 43-62 record, which puts them in last place in the NL West. While they have several attractive trade chips, the front office and ownership are seemingly at odds with regards to whether or not they should be traded.
Carlos Gonzalez has been mentioned in trade rumors. The 28 year-old outfielder has been affected by injuries this season and is hitting only .244/.293/.437 for an 86 wRC+, far below his career norms of .295/.352/.522 and a 121 wRC+. He's under contract through the 2017 season and will be owed a total of $53 million from 2015-17.
While this has been a disappointing year, Gonzalez is still an attractive player. ZiPS forecasts a .275/.338/.506 line with a 118 wRC+ for the rest of the season, and Steamer is slightly more optimistic, giving him a ten point boost in each of the triple-slash categories. Despite dealing with injuries and averaging only 129 games per season from 2010-13, Gonzalez totaled 16.5 fWAR and a gaudy slash line of .311/.370/.556. Even after adjusting for hitter-friendly Coors Field that comes out to a 134 wRC+.
Poor season aside, Gonzalez would be an interesting option both as an upgrade for the stretch run and as a long-term asset. Of course he doesn't provide much on the defensive side, and there's concerns about how he would hit after moving away from Coors. He does have a solid track record on the road. From 2010-13, he produced a 114 wRC+ on the road.
Since he's more than a short-term rental, the Rockies would ask for a solid return in exchange for Gonzalez. The New York Mets might be interested in Gonzalez. Short of a near-miraculous stretch run, they aren't in contention this year. But, with the possible return of Matt Harvey and an impressive array of young pitchers, the Mets could be a team to watch out for in 2015.
The Rockies could use some pitching help. Even after adjusting for Coors Field, they have the lowest fWAR of any starting rotation in the major leagues. Meanwhile, the Mets have a bevy of intriguing young arms.
Understandably, they are loath to deal Noah Syndegaard, unless the Rockies were willing to talk a Troy Tulowitzki trade. Still, there's Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom, who are both having success at the big league level, and Rafael Montero has had a cup of coffee as well. In addition, young catcher Travis d'Arnaud is coming around at the plate, and Kevin Plawecki could be major league ready by next year.
Young starting pitching is always in demand, and the Mets have plenty of prospects that fit in that category. If they have the desire to swing a trade with the Rockies, a deal could be in the works. Perhaps the Rockies don't want to deal Tulo or Cargo during the season, but if they stick around, talks could heat up in the offseason. The Rockies could use a rebuild of sorts, and the Mets could be shaping up for playoff contention next season.


text:
Contact Info / Websites
- Skype
- ryanson209
Entry #82
I went to a con. It was fun. Got some cool swag. Actual swag, not Bieber swag.
I have a girlfriend. She is pretty great and also pretty.
I been doing stuff. Writing and got an audio play I'm directing and I got guitar and mic back so I can record again.
I still need a job.
- 3 comments
You must be logged in to comment on this post.
2013-04-07 06:59:54
No notice on the 11,111 posts? Congrats!
2013-05-09 17:29:47
Ugh you still use the word ''swag''? That is soooo 2013.
Nowadays we say rumpadootious, son. Get with the times!
Still, Good luck with the guitar thing. There's nothing more fun than being able to play an instrument.


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MOVIE SYNOPSIS [ General Audiences ] With direction of Claus Bjerre, this film in English (original language) was presented in 2014. This film, a creation of Lucas Alexander, Maria Cordsen, Siff Lundgreen and Claus Bjerre, was produced in Denmark. You can watch En, to, tresomt online on TV cable or theaters with original audio in Danish at different dates. This film premiered in theaters in 2014.
Rating: 5 by 10 users./
Runtime: 90 minutes
Lucas Alexander, Magnus Bruun, Maria Cordsen, Siff Lundgreen and Thomas Dalmo Nommesen.
Comedy, Drama.
90-minute film (full movie) directed by Claus Bjerre.
The original audio of En, to, tresomt has dialogues in or Danish, it was produced in Denmark.
It premiered in cinemas or television in 2014.
Screenplay written by Lucas Alexander, Maria Cordsen, Siff Lundgreen and Claus Bjerre.
Jonathan Guldberg Elsborg.
Claus Bjerre.
This film was produced and / or financed by C.Bjerrefilm.
Composed by The Felines and The Filines.
United International Pictures and United International Pictures (UIP).
Without commercial breaks, the full movie En, to, tresomt has a duration of 90 minutes; the official trailer can be watched in streaming on the Internet. You can watch this full movie free in English or Danish in movie TV channels, renting the DVD or with VoD services (Video On Demand player, Hulu) and PPV (Pay Per View, Netflix).
See the page of this full movie, En, to, tresomt in FULLTV Movies.


text:
The yoga practice is inherently a solo journey.
We're on our own mats, tuning in to our bodies and breath. Moving through this day, this body, this spirit in our own unique way. From the Bhagavad Gita: "Yoga is a journey of the self, through the self, to the self."
And yet as humans we are designed to thrive on both time alone and time in community, with each other. Real, face-to-face connection. To practice and be in the energy of people! We could all sit around watching yoga videos, but its way more epic to be together, watching the sunset, moving in harmony..
Our mission is to bring to life the most authentic, creative, nature-rich yoga classes and events so that you can experience the magic of yoga and community, together, as one human family. We honored to have you here and we hope you'll join us. We promise you'll love it.


text:
Rider Jack Trailer (2015)
"Jack is afraid of remembering, his father of forgetting." 20 August 2015 Drama, Comedy 89 mins
Jack, who has all but failed at life, dreams of a fresh beginning abroad. Instead, he unexpectedly has to take care of his hated father Paul, who he has not seen since childhood. Paul suffers from Alzheimer's and wants to make peace with his son while he still can. But Jack has very different plans for Paul. Two worlds collide, and a journey to Ticino, the Italian-speaking part of Switzerland, turns into an odyssey back to a painfully suppressed past.
Watch the official Rider Jack 2015 trailer in HD below or find more Rider Jack videos on Vidimovie.


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TORONTO (Feb. 7, 2017) – TD Bank Group today announced a leadership gift of $800,000 to the Get Your Life Back Campaign to create a new resource centre at West Park Healthcare Centre.
The TD Patient, Family and Staff Resource Centre will provide access to a vast body of up-to-date and relevant healthcare knowledge and information that will enhance patient care and outcomes. The gift will also support education through the Registered Nursing Association of Ontario to provide advanced specialty training in skin and wound treatment to nursing staff.
"TD believes that education is critical to the health of individuals, families and communities. We know that by working together to further the education of staff, patients and their families at West Park, we will be making a difference in the future of our community," said Mike French, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Canadian Retail at TD Bank Group.
The donation was celebrated at an event at West Park attended by patients, staff, physicians and volunteers. John Freeman, Chair of West Park Foundation's Board of Directors, thanked TD for their support.
"TD's generous gift will enhance patient care and improve the patient experience while promoting a culture of learning among all members of the West Park community," said Freeman.
The resource centre will be located in the new, six-storey, approximately 730,000 square foot hospital facility planned for the West Park campus. On Feb. 2, West Park and Infrastructure Ontario announced three prequalifying teams who will be bidding to design, build, finance and maintain the new hospital building. The prequalifying teams will be invited to respond to a request for proposals, expected to be issued in spring 2017.
"Education and learning are essential components of our new integrated campus of care," said Anne-Marie Malek, CEO of West Park Healthcare Centre. "The bold transformation of our campus will set a new standard for patient care and enable us to meet the healthcare challenges of the future."
The Get Your Life Back Campaign will raise a total of $80 million toward the redevelopment of West Park's 27-acre campus. Phase 1 of the Campaign will raise $50 million by the end of 2021, the expected completion date of the new hospital. To date, almost $20 million has been raised.
About West Park Healthcare Centre
West Park has deep expertise in rehabilitative medicine, and is an essential and dynamic partner in the healthcare system. We come in where acute care leaves off, providing specialized rehabilitation for patients recovering from life-altering accidents and health challenges such as lung disease, amputation and spasticity, a debilitating symptom of stroke, cerebral palsy and multiple sclerosis. West Park helps patients get their lives back.
Kerry Kincaid
Director, Communications and Marketing
West Park Foundation
416-243-3600 ext 4433
West Park Foundation
West Park Healthcare Centre
82 Buttonwood Ave.
Toronto ON M6M 2J5
© West Park Healthcare Centre


text:
Review: Samsung Galaxy S7 edge Blue Coral
They say it takes three weeks to form a habit, but an ELLE editor who has never owned a Samsung or Android phone in her life is converted in a week
Day 1
My first thoughts upon switching on the Samsung Galaxy S7 edge Blue Coral: what is this? How to use? Why am I swiping everything wrong? The phone is so thin and light, it sits unobstrusively in my bag when I'm on the go. I'm more of a red type of person, but a new blue phone is something I never thought I needed.
Day 2
Colleagues hijack my phone for selfies. Everyone looks softer, prettier and perfectly lit, even though we're shooting indoors under fluoro strip lights that do no one any favours. The Samsung Galaxy S7 edge camera lens seems to turn even the harshest light into golden hour – that magical sunrise/sunset time when the light is at its most flattering angle.
I've also heard many things about the Beauty feature. Curious, I try it at home, setting the Big Eyes, Skin Tone and Slim Face filters to max. Am slightly terrified; that is not my face. But I appreciate the Skin Tone filter, which blurs out any imperfections. I don't take selfies – I struggle to even pretend walk in OOTDs – but am tempted to take more.
Day 3
Still adjusting to all the newness. I try holding the Samsung Galaxy S7 edge with one hand; I need to practice as it's quite a jump in size from my old phone. I watch a few videos, including Muse performing live and the Fantastic Beasts trailer. The screen, which looks almost without a bezel thanks to the curved 'edge' makes everything look fantastic.
The phone only has one speaker, so while you won't get stereo audio that way, the earphones more than make up for it. Everything sounds great and the earpieces are comfortable.
Day 4
Took a flatlay today, and all everyone could talk about was how great the Samsung Galaxy S7 edge looked in the sea of blue.
Day 5
Just when I think I'm used to the interface and features, I realise that the phone has a groundbreaking smartphone feature: dual pixel 12MP camera technology, which essentially translates to sharper photos, faster lens focus (this, I noticed, happens without fail, even while shooting videos), and a wide aperture range (as low as f.17).
There are the usual hyperlapse, slow motion and panorama, plus a few unusual ones for selective focus and making a video collage, but what I really love is the Pro mode. Auto mode does this automatically (and very quickly) for you, but Pro mode gives you more control over your photos. Settings like the shutter speed, ISO and aperture – things you'll find in a DSLR camera – can be adjusted. Blurred backgrounds (a.k.a. the Bokeh effect) are more prominent now, too.
Day 6
I shoot a video of our beauty editor Grace playing with some makeup for a holiday look, and make edits with the VideoShow app. The microphone picks up audio really well, and I notice how quickly the auto-focus works as objects move closer or further from the camera. No awkward split-second blur is always great.
Despite nearly a week's worth of active photo-taking and video recording, I've not had to look at how much storage space I have left. If I eventually max out my 32GB built-in storage, I know it's expandable to 256GB.
Day 7
The final test: I hesitantly put the phone in a bowl of water. One of the Samsung Galaxy S7 edge's pride and joys is its dust and water-resistant feature. It's hard to test for dust resistance, but the water test is always easy. So last night, I put the phone in a bowl of water, rang it, and got my parents to answer. Phone survived. Parents were shocked. I demonstrate again for my colleagues this morning; shock and awe.
A prompt will tell you if there is still moisture in the charging port; I left the phone to dry, and everything was soon back to normal.
The aftermath
I've never thought I wanted a big phone, but after a week with the Samsung Galaxy S7 edge Blue Coral, I say my reluctant goodbyes, and wonder where it's been all my life.


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A Raiders-centric sports bar: Remember that dueling piano place in Danville, the one with the un-Google-able name? (You try searching for "That Bar" on Google and tell us how it works for you. Berkeley's Local Butcher Shop and Oakland's Actual Cafe have the same issue.) Now the place has been reborn as McGah's Pub and Piano Bar, a sports bar with links to the Oakland Raiders. Serious links: E.W. McGah co-founded the Raiders in 1960, and his relationship with the team has been part of an enduring, multigenerational legacy. Great-grandson — and pub owner — Sherratt Reicher was a defensive assistant and scout for the team until 2002, when he left to oversee McGah Family Cellars in Rutherford. We hear you're allowed to cheer for other teams while dining on the Irish Reuben sandwiches, burgers and Dungeness crab salad at the new sports bar. (But we wouldn't dream of actually doing so. This is Raider Nation territory, baby.) Details: 148 E. Prospect Ave., Danville.
Lamorinda eateries: It's only in the restaurant world that papered-over windows cause such excitement. Two storefronts in Lafayette and Moraga are sporting that alluring paper these days. Three Lark Creek alumni will be opening Rustic Tavern this spring at 3576 Mt. Diablo Blvd. in the spot previously occupied by Roya's Garlic Garden. Moraga will be welcoming Home/Made, a cafe and bakery (with yet another un-Google-able name), this spring at 337 Rheem Blvd., where Mondello's closed in 2010.
C'est magnifique: And in other Lafayette news, chef Philippe Chevalier, owner of the eponymous Chevalier restaurant, is included in the inaugural edition of "Best Chefs America," a just-released 386-page coffee table book. Chefs are chosen for inclusion through peer review, so Chevalier is walking on air — er, être aux anges. (We Googled the translation.) For more information on the book, go to http://bestchefsamerica.com. For the restaurant: www.chevalierrestaurant.com.
Send your restaurant tips to food editor Jackie Burrell, email@example.com.


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Roll Out the Barrel - The British Pub On Film DVD
Directed by Richard Massingham
Collection of shorts, documentaries, trade films and newsreel footage exploring the history of the British pub and its place in society.
The titles comprise: 'The Story of English Inns' (1944), 'Down at the Local' (1945), 'The Inn That Crossed the Sea' (1950), 'Tramp's Ball' (1953), 'Beer and Skittles' (1954), 'The Old Pheasant' (1958), 'The Friendly Inn' (1958), 'Mining Review 16th Year No.5' (1963), 'Lucy's Table' (1965), 'All in Good Time' (1964), 'A Working Men's Club in Sheffield' (1965), 'The Ship Hotel - Tyne Main' (1967), 'Under the Table You Must Go' (1969), 'Guinness for You' (1971), 'A Round of Bass' (1972), 'Henry Cleans Up' (1974), 'What'll You Have?' (1977), 'New Pubs for Old - UK' (1979), 'New Pubs for Old - International' (1979)' and 'Local Life' (1982).
- Format: DVD
- Region: 0
- Certification: (PG)
- Catalogue number: BFIVD937
- Studio: BFI
- Release date: 11/06/2012
- Genre: Documentaries & Biographies
- Colour: Col & B/W
Free Home Delivery
on all orders
Pick up orders
from local bookshops


text:
Back in October, 2016, I had a flurry of radio station visits in the Philadelphia-area, including a night-time trek to new low power FM (LPFM) college radio station WNUW-LP at Neumann University. WNUW's General Manager Sean McDonald graciously picked me up from WYBF at Cabrini University (see my tour report #122) and drove me to see his nearby station in the Philadelphia suburb of Aston, Pennsylvania.
Part of the overarching Neumann Media program, WNUW is the latest iteration of student radio on campus. According to McDonald, students had been asking for a student radio station for many years and an internet-only station launched in January, 2008 (when he was a student), following an initial radio course in 2007. When the LPFM application window opened, Neumann Media jumped on the opportunity and the school was ultimately awarded a license to broadcast over 98.5 FM.
During our drive, McDonald told me the back story of how WNUW came to be on FM. The university president actually alerted McDonald to the forthcoming LPFM window, passing along some information that had been sent by a consultant. McDonald recalled that after reviewing the details, "…we went for it and it was exhilarating." Although there were frustrations along the way, he told me "it paid off in the end, because the students were more ecstatic to be on the air and to tell people they were on the air, than to just be on a stream."
McDonald added the caveat, "… and that's not to dig anybody on a stream, because I was for seven years, I was stream only. But people look at us differently now because we have an FM station…and to anybody that doubts the power of radio, you should see the faces when we tell someone that we also have our own radio station that's over the air. Their eyes light up. Their parents eyes light up. It's more than worth all of the troubles and frustrations that we went through. It's just legitimized our program and it's empowered students to do something even better."
Neumann University has been incredibly supportive of the station's move to FM and in addition to the license, the station also received a studio in the brand new John J. Mullen Communication Center on campus. Dedicated just two weeks before my visit, the shiny new digs are expansive (10,000 square feet of space for all of the school's media and communications activities) and state of the art.
In addition to the WNUW studios, there are television studios, a green room, super fancy recording studios (sound isolating Wenger rooms, with "virtual acoustics"), and a multi-functional hall with projectors, robotic cameras, wireless microphones and video hookups. It's also home to Neumann Media, the "student run media hub at Neumann University. Neumann Media is comprised of 4 parts: 98.5 WNUW, NeuVideo/NeuTube, Neumann Sports Network, and NeuPress," according to its website.
On top of his role as WNUW's General Manager, McDonald is now Director of Neumann Media and was deeply involved in designing the communication center addition. As McDonald walked me through the Neumann Media space, he beamed with pride, telling me, "I literally built this thing…this is my baby."
WNUW launched in late 2015, hosting a big party with live music on the first day of classes that August, followed by its official FCC on-air date in November, 2015 from its former location. WNUW first went on-air from its new building on April 30, 2016, while things were still under construction. McDonald said that they had "really" moved in by the end of July. Although most of the radio equipment had already been in use before the move, they still had a few "hiccups" and had to work out some kinks with a new automation system. McDonald said that it's actually be a "fun learning curve" and added that it's been great to watch the schedule grow every week. Additionally, radio classes were taking place in the studio, making for an even better learning environment.
At the time of my visit, live programming started as early as 10am and ran as late as around 11pm. McDonald told me that Neumann has around 2,500 students and is predominately a commuter campus, with most students working full-time in addition to their coursework. There are some dorms on campus, but there are also students who travel home to work on the weekends.
A big goal for McDonald has been to make the station feel inviting to students and faculty from many different disciplines. To that end, he's recruited nursing majors, sports marketing majors (a few of whom are doing a show about the business of sports), a PhD student from the pastoral care & counseling program, faculty from the English department, and more. He shared with me that,
…I've worked very hard to get more people on. Now I've got…two professors in psychology. They're doing a show called 'This is your brain on politics' and it's the psychology of politics, especially right now with this presidential election and they're breaking down, well, how is the media influencing it."
Inspired by shows like this, others have asked to get involved with the station and he told me that the English department was looking into doing a program about the history of comedy. He added, "Maybe it took us getting the new facilities, but people now see it and they go, oh, it's that easy and it's recorded and I can build a resume and a reel around it…It's amazing." WNUW had around 48 participants back in October, the majority of which are students. As evidenced by the programs that I just described, there are also a handful of staff and faculty members hosting shows.
In addition to its public affairs and talk shows, WNUW plays a lot of music and has students managing music submissions. McDonald explained, "…I would say predominantly we are music-driven and we are music-driven from every spectrum…We have a professor that does 50s and 60s jazz on Fridays. He calls it 'That's Jazz.' Then we have students that are country only or pop only or whatever I feel like playing today." When there isn't a live program, the station's automation system kicks in, playing a selection of music that would likely be heard during hosted shows. McDonald said that the range of genres includes "brand new, throwbacks, country, rap [and] oldies."
McDonald was also the 2016 President of College Radio Day and told me that he's been particularly excited about the College Radio Foundation's new grant program for college radio stations. He said that he thinks that the future of college radio is "bright, inventive and out of the box," adding that he believes that students will "continue to reinvent radio" and that "the unknown is really exciting and invigorating."
Huge thanks to Sean McDonald for not only the tour of WNUW, but also the door-to-door transport on what was a very long travel day for me. This is my 130th radio station field trip report, with more on the way from my Pennsylvania, Virginia, New York and California travels. My most recent field trips can be found on Radio Survivor and a full list of all my station tour reports is compiled on Spinning Indie.
Just one dollar a month makes you a patron of Radio Survivor. Help us through our Patreon Campaign!


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|03 Feb 2013
Loud Wave file sound (Not on startup)
Hi all, I went through all my possibilities on this one and I think I know what's going on, but don't know how to change it.
I heard a wav file sound (full volume playing through my sound card) and thought it was on start up. I did everything to quiet that sound in windows but it didn't help.
I reaslize now by experimentation, that it plays right before loading windows.
I thought perhaps there is some thing in the bios settings that could be playing this sound, but couldn't find anything to tweak.
Any suggestion would be greatly appreciated!
|My System Specs
|03 Feb 2013
Is this a POST beep code perhaps? Basically the hardware telling you there is a problem before the OS is loaded. If you want to explore that option I found this.
laptop a loud weird Beep sound for 30 Sec.before loading o/s.I get - Microsoft Community
|My System Specs
|03 Feb 2013
Thanks for the response. It is not a beep. It is a sound file going through the sound card, and is somewhat musical. I believe it is some sort of startup sound. If I knew how to see all that starts loading, perhaps I can see it and delete it.
Thanks anyway!
|My System Specs
|03 Feb 2013
Have you looked through what programs and services are started at boot time? Could be that.
Press windows key + R
Type "msconfig" and press enter
Take a look at all the stuff in there
You also have options for boot logging and such
Does the same sound play when you boot up in safe mode?
You mentioned that you had an idea of what is going on... what is your guess?
|My System Specs
|04 Feb 2013
Thanks and I will try your suggestions tomorrow (actually today!) I'll get back soon Thanks!
|My System Specs
|18 Feb 2013
I know that It has been ages but did you find a solution?
|My System Specs
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text: Hello all! April finds us back on tour again, after enjoying the Easter Break. Always fun getting back to work and visiting all the new venues and audiences. People along our journey have been so welcoming and I believe we are eating better than we did last Fall. We do […] April '2016' Newsletter25 Apr, 2016 in newsletter by dennydiamondcom


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Section: mord-patt
Shelf: 31
Book: 36 (reverse count rule used because book cover looked idiotic. Yes, I judged a book by its cover.)
The Children's Zoo by Lillian O'Donnell
I struggled a bit with this one. I'm not a fan of mystery stories, but if I were forced to read more in this series, I could do it and not complain too much. It was a quick read.


text:
Every God in the world knows that we cancer dancers can use a little humor. My friend Chris Smith, who is also a fellow traveler and solar cook posted recently. It got me laughing and I felt it.
I ran up six flights of stairs
to my small furnished room
opened the window
and began throwing out
those things most important in life
First to go, Truth, squealing like a fink:
"Don't! I'll tell awful things about you!"
"Oh yeah? Well, I've nothing to hide … OUT!"
Then went God, glowering & whimpering in amazement:
"It's not my fault! I'm not the cause of it all!" "OUT!"
Then Love, cooing bribes: "You'll never know impotency!
All the girls on Vogue covers, all yours!"
I pushed her fat ass out and screamed:
"You always end up a bummer!"
I picked up Faith Hope Charity
all three clinging together:
"Without us you'll surely die!"
"With you I'm going nuts! Goodbye!"
Then Beauty … ah, Beauty —
As I led her to the window
I told her: "You I loved best in life
… but you're a killer; Beauty kills!"
Not really meaning to drop her
I immediately ran downstairs
getting there just in time to catch her
"You saved me!" she cried
I put her down and told her: "Move on."
Went back up those six flights
went to the money
there was no money to throw out.
The only thing left in the room was Death
hiding beneath the kitchen sink:
"I'm not real!" It cried
"I'm just a rumor spread by life …"
Laughing I threw it out, kitchen sink and all
and suddenly realized Humor
was all that was left —
All I could do with Humor was to say:
"Out the window with the window!"
GREGORY CORSO, Beat Poet
So true. . . out with it all and in with the new. I like it when he tossed truth out the window. Truth is ambiguous and even lies to us. All it is a thought we continue to think over and over and over. Change my thought and I change the truth. I laughed when he tossed out God, and then Faith, Hope, and Charity all bundled together in a squealing package. Anyway. . . it was fun to read it. Vj
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Tags: abraham hicks, bone, cancer, mind, Protocol, PTR Breathing, spirit, thoughts
4 Responses to ""The Whole Mess … Almost" Gregory Corso humor for cancer dancer"
Hi Vernon,
Love the poem, LOL!
Read about your protocol on IMVA Newsletter ( Mark Sircus ), and now, here on your website. Thanks for sharing the info with everyone. I have a few suggestions for you ( and everyone ) for a bit of an improvement on the Baking Soda/Black Strap Molasses Drink:
1) Make Barley Water with Distilled Water:
( Barley is very high in Alkalinity, and will be a great improvement over plain Distilled Water. It is also full of other good stuff. )
2) You could also use some Fresh Green Barley Powder along with the Barley Water, or instead of the Barley Water.
( "Just Barley" by Green Kamut is the best, most concentrated and pure, fresh Green Barley Powder on the market. )
This is full of vitamins and minerals, including being high in Potassium, which is needed to offset the high Baking Soda concentration. )
3) Food Grade Peroxide:
3-6% solution is most commonly used.
You can add a few drops to the Protocol Drink ( check out the various recommendations on amounts, times per day. )
Or, you could make a solution in Distilled or Barley Water, and fill a nasal spray bottle and squeeze about 5 or 6 times at the back of your throat.
4) Magnesium Oil:
This also would be beneficial. Would make the taste more gruesome though, LOL. ( See Mark Sircus' info on amounts if taken internally. )
For the best Detox along with the Protocol:
1) Whole Lemon/Olive Oil Drink:
2 Tblsp Cold-pressed Olive Oil to each Lemon.
Food Processor, Vitamix, to mash them up, skin, seeds and all. Add Distilled Water. Make is semi thick, to get a good concentration. 1/2 to 1 cup on an empty stomach, 1x or 2x a day for 3 days straight or more ( can safely be used everyday if you want to ).
2) Cold-pressed Castor Oil Packs:
on white or organic material, put over abdomen, cover with plastic bag, then a towel, and then a heating pad. Chill out in bed for a half an hour or longer, drinking lots of Distilled water before and during the process.
3) Bentonite Clay Packs or Soaks:
Mix with Distilled Water, make a fairly thick mix.
Soak your feet, keep coating your legs with it, or put directly over abdominal area ( could also apply to lower back, if someone else will agree to slather you up, LOL ).
Don't wash this off in a tub or shower, clogs pipes. You will have to hose off outside.
These things work fast, and incredibly to clear toxins from your system. Aids in constipation and fluid retention as well.
Just wanted to mention these ideas.
I'm off to research Muscle Testing now……
Hello, my name is Sasha and my family and i just found out that my father has liver cancer. I wanted to ask u if this recipe could help his liver cancer. I don't know much about this disease but it freaks me out to know that my dad is going thorough something that cant be cured. Could this recipe be harmful? if u could email me asap that would be great and appreciated thank you for ur time:)
Why didn't anyone reply to Sasha? Why did this just die? Did the baking soda turn out to be bogus?
I was researching pH and came to this page and it just seems odd that there was all this enthusiasm and then nothing, no more posts. I want to believe there could be some validity to this approach to treating cancer but nothing in 2 years? Could someone explain what happened here?


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The Worst Wedding Dresses Ever Made
A bride should look stunning on her wedding. For most brides-to-be, finding the perfect fairytale dress is the biggest concern when it comes to planning their wedding. However, these ladies have reached quite a different effect with their creations. Check out our picks of the worst wedding dresses ever made.
Sourcew: joemonster


text: Hi, im searching for a way to play music from deezer.com on my wii via WiFi. when i open the website in my internet channel, it says i have to install adobe flash player 10. is this possible? i read that the internet-channel has flash-player 7 integrated, is there a way to update? thx in advance dope_X


text:
Audio-only stream below
- Download it directly with this link
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- Listen to it here with the player above
So many podcasts, yet only so many people to take the blame ...
We're expecting Mobile World Congress to be so crazy this year that we're starting our official preview a week early. This week we take a look at the latest Samsung Galaxy S7 leakage, take a look at what LG itself is already putting out about LG G5, and we answer more of your emails and voicemails live on air. (And we're happy to announce that we managed to not cause any divorces last week!)
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- select colour
it's an internet thing!
it's an internet thing!
08:38 11 August 2009
Former 'Footballers' Wives' star Zoe Lucker is in talks to compete in this year's Strictly Come Dancing.
According to reports, the actress, who played Tanya Turner in the ITV1 drama, is "really keen to sign up for Strictly".
Lucker is looking follow in the footsteps of Rachel Stevens and Alesha Dixon, whose profiles were given a huge lift after their appearance on the ballroom dance show.
An insider told The Sun: "She [Zoe] feels that she's still only really known for her part in Footballers' Wives, which ended more than three years ago.
"Zoe's looking for new challenges and thinks this could be her big break."
Lucker has also had parts ITV drama 'Bad Girls' and 'Holby Blue'.
Other famous faces tipped for this year's show include EastEnd actresses Kara Tointon, (Dawn Swann) and actress Natalie Cassidy, who used to play Sonia Fowler.
It has also been reported that Coronation Street actor Reece Dinsdale (Joe McIntyre) is in line for the show, however the official line-up is yet to be confirmed.
Disclaimer: Supanet is not responsible for, and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to this website


text:
- Home
- Bike Checks
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1 of 4
saw it live already in Leogang after the WC finals, they were testing during a regular bikepark day, pretty impressive to have such guys going down the track just infront of you.
Cable routing looks familiar. Here is the earliest alteration from a innovative visonary.
wow thanks for sharing, I got a 2010 Giant Glory myself and the cables look ridiculous on my downtube. gonna have to give this a whirl
..top :-)
hart has been testing one since october last year
and you saw it how many times


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When Ana Becerra, Maria Tenorio, and Vern Rice visited the manager at Garden View Apartments as part of our Listening to Our Neighbors emphasis, Garden View invited us to join them in co-sponsoring National Night Out. Since we are taking break from our annual Block Party, we have been looking for other ways to connect with our neighbors. After consulting with Council President Mark Chace and Pastor Peter Hanson, we decided to accept their invitation. A planning group from Garden View and CtK met on June 29 to plan details.
Tuesday, Aug. 1 from 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
Tuesday, Aug. 1 from 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
Get Involved with National Night Out
Elaine Foell will be in the narthex on Sundays, July 16 and 23 to provide information and invite volunteers to help with this opportunity. Many residents of Garden View have attended our Block Party in the past. Many students from there are involved with Community Partners with Youth which works at CtK all year around. Watch for ways that you can be involved in our continuing involvement with our neighbors through this National Night Out.
Garden View Apartments is located at: 1417 10th St NW, New Brighton, MN 55112


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The Power of Trust in Manufacturer-Retailer Relationships. Presented By: Suna Eric Joe Paul Shanina. Overview:. Do Manufacturers and Retailers that trust each other generate greater profits? Is trust stronger than fear? Benefits, limits, and creation of trust
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
Presented By:
Exploiting power may work in the short run, but it is
Self-defeating in the long run.
3 Main Reasons:
1. "Exploiting power unfairly can come back to
haunt a company if it's position of power changes."
2. "When companies systematically exploit their
advantage, their victims ultimately seek ways
to resist."
3. "By working together as partners, retailers and
manufacturers can provide the greatest value to
customers at the lowest possible cost."
Organization's Dependence
Partner's Dependence
Create Fear
Pursue Self-Interest
Avoid dependence by playing multiple partners by raising their switching costs
Retain flexibility for self but lock in Partners by raising their switching costs
Trust Game
Create Trust
Pursue Fairness
Create interdependence by limiting the number of partners
Both parties signal commitment through specialized investments, which lock them inPower Vs. Trust
Primarily unilateral Communication
Closed or Formal, detailed & short-term
Use competitive bidding frequently
Reduce conflict through detailed contracts
Resolve conflicts through the legal system
Bilateral Communication
Open or Informal long-term
Check market prices occasionally
Reduce conflict potential by selecting partners with similar values
Resolve conflicts through mediation or arbitrationPower Vs. Trust(continued)
"Success in rapidly changing environment will go
to those who learn to make the leap of faith"


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February 28, 2007
Several states have recently mandated universal coverage for their residents. Such reforms are likely to affect health-care spending, which has been growing faster than the overall economy for decades, says Amy Finkelstein, assistant professor of economics at MIT and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
For evidence of how such programs can lead to increased spending, just look at the effects of the introduction of Medicare in 1966:
- By 1970, the program caused a 37 percent increase in hospital spending, an enormous number.
- Extrapolated out, between 1950 and 1990, Medicare is responsible for about half of the six-fold growth in real per capita health-care spending during this period.
Why does increased health insurance lead to increased health spending? There are several reasons, says Finkelstein:
- When individuals have insurance, they tend to consume more health care -- if you only have to pay some fraction of the cost, you are more likely to opt for more care.
- Hospitals and doctors respond to the increased demand for health care by changing some of the ways in which they practice medicine.
In addition to its costs, Medicare did not have any effect at reducing elderly mortality in its first 10 years of existence, says Finkelstein. What this means is that the elderly were not foregoing life-saving treatments prior to Medicare. Overall, Medicare did not so much save lives as it did provide financial security.
Source: Amy Finkelstein, "The Cost of Coverage," Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2007.
For text:
Browse more articles on Health Issues


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The legendary Coyaba Beach Resort newly opens with all essentials for the classic Caribbean vacation. Set on world famous Grand Anse Beach, Grenada, this enchanting resort has been inspired by centuries old native Caribbean Indians. Step into timeless moments where mountains meet playful blue sea. Savour complimentary water sports and golfing. Try delightful gourmet cuisine from international chefs or an exotic botanical massage. Our personalize service and magical surroundings awaits you.
7 Days Prior Arrival In Period 01-MAY-07/15-DEC-07, CANCELLATIONS WITHIN CUT-OFF PERIOD SUBJECT TO- SUMMER-2 NIGHTS ROOM CHARGE
St George SCP:00000,Grenada,Granada, Islas de Barlovento
Teléfono:1 473 4444129Fax:1 473 4444808


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Dig In: Riding With Kids
We anticipate several stories about riding with kids. Our first one comes from IMBA's Wendy Sweet. She has two young boys whom she managed to turn into mountain bikers on a family trip to Fruita, CO. (All of the links in this story will take you to trail descriptions on MTBProject.com.)
The trip could have easily gone either way. I had optimistically planned our first family mountain bike trip to Fruita, CO, over a three-day weekend in October. My husband, Jeremy, and I had taken several bike trips throughout the years sans kids, but the boys were reaching an age where it seemed possible to include them. Over the previous year, we were finally skiing as a family and I hoped that we could start biking as one, too. And while I was concentrating on making it a glass-half-full vacation, I also came up with several contingency plans in which either Jeremy or I could enjoy a solo ride while the other took the kids to the dinosaur museum or hotel pool.
My boys, Alex (11) and Adam (9), are no strangers to bikes. Jeremy and I toted them around Boulder, CO, in a bike trailer as soon as they could sit, and graduated them quickly to a more interactive (yet somewhat unstable and sometimes terrifying) third wheel. By age 5, they were on their own, two-wheeled bikes, but most of our adventures were limited to short jaunts on the cement paths intertwining through Boulder.
In recent months, we had started exploring some of Boulder's easier mountain bike trails, but Alex and Adam weren't keen on the whole mountain biking thing just yet. Boulder's trails are either easy and a little boring, or too difficult and exposed for young novices, and a few trips to Valmont Bike Park had ended in skinned knees and tears instead of whoops of elation.
Fruita is only a 4.5 hour drive from Boulder, so we arrived early enough in the day to try a short ride. We chose 18 Road and quickly made a near-fatal mistake. The 18 Road trail system has all of the necessary features to be a great family area. Most of the short trails are directional, and the downhill trails are rated from flowy green to white-knuckled black. The trails are not much longer than a mile, and many people tailgate in the parking lot while their party members ride at their own paces.
We parked in the lower lot and started riding up a mile-long dirt road to access Kessel Run. The road was initially a gentle incline, but became steeper near the top. Alex was riding a new-to-him bike: a 15-year-old, 24" Stumpjumper we bought off a friend for $20 that would quickly be dubbed, "The Character Builder." It was heavy, unwieldy, and Alex couldn't manage the grip shifters.
Adam was on his used, 20" Gary Fisher with five gears. Neither boy had the strength or fortitude to ride to the top. Jeremy and I found ourselves already needing to do damage control, or the vacation would end before anyone set a tire on singletrack. After much cajoling, we walked the boys to the top and got situated on Kessel Run. Alex's 30-pound bike proved to be great on downhills, but Adam was apprehensive about getting any sort of speed. The solution, we found, was to divide and conquer. Jeremy followed Alex down and I stayed back with Adam, and thus we completed our first loop at 18 Road.
Having learned a valuable lesson, Jeremy and I set up a shuttle with our trusty minivan, allowing one adult to enjoy the singletrack up a trail called Prime Cut while the other drove the boys to the top of the road. After a few more Kessel Runs, the boys were warming up to the trip and ready to try the blue-rated PBR (Pumps, Bumps and Rollers, of course). Adam became more comfortable on his bike, willing to go more than 5 mph, and Alex seemed a little bit too at home, using his skiing experience to fly down the hills. Day one: a success!
The next day we ventured out to the Kokopelli trailhead to ride Rustler's Loop. A green trail, this area is great for beginners. Every 200 ft or so, informative signs offer tips on mountain bike etiquette and riding. We made sure to stop at each one and let the boys come up with various scenarios for when and how to use the tips. Somewhere between the sweeping vista of the Colorado River far below us and the rock wall towering above, Alex called back to me, "If this is mountain biking, I really like it!"
Yes! We have a convert!
After conquering Rustler's, we moved on to the slightly more challenging Wrangler's Loop. After a slow climb that involved more walking than riding, we were off on singletrack again. Miraculously, both kids were having a blast, so much so that after going back to Fruita for lunch, we headed over to 18 Road for another hour of afternoon riding. Having learned our lesson yesterday, we continued to shuttle the car, allowing the driving adult to ride up singletrack and also take harder routes down, such as the exposed Joe's Ridge. We did have a few crashes—Adam counted all the bumps on PBR and the 51st was not a good one—but there were no serious injuries and everyone was back in the saddle quickly following spills.
Sunday proved to be the most challenging day. We headed out toward Rabbit Valley after a night of rain. The trail system was not as well marked; the signposts had numbers instead of names and intersected moto and jeep trails. On the ride, we quickly found wrong turns and mud, and called it quits after less than an hour. Sometimes, you have to know when to say when.
All and all, the weekend turned out to be a huge success. The fun and smiles vastly outweighed the few tears and frustrations. In my optimism, I admittedly had planned on more rides while one of us took the kids and the other snuck in a guilty hot lap. Though we were not riding the speed or pace I would normally ride with other adults, it was not miserably slow, either.
Our fall Fruita weekend led us to Cave Creek, AZ, for riding over winter break, then a spring trip to Pueblo, CO. When planning rides and trips with the boys, we look for areas that don't have huge elevation changes and trail systems with lots of options. The parks near Cave Creek had a multitude of green, smooth trails without too much climbing. The South Shore Trail Network at Lake Pueblo State Park features several short trails weaving up and down the bluffs that allowed us to make short loops. And sometimes, we still employ a car shuttle, like when we rode the Peaks Trail in Colorado from Breckenridge to Frisco and had grandma pick up the kids so Jeremy and I could ride back up the mountain.
We also recently upgraded the boys' bikes. Alex is now on a hardtail 26" Trek and Adam has a 24" Trek with more than five gears (in good conscience, we could not pass "The Character Builder" to him). Having the right equipment does make a big difference for kids. We also swapped out the grip shifters on both new bikes to trigger shifters, which the boys find easier to use.
When riding, we account for the need to split the family into two groups; divide and conquer works well for different riding speeds and for separating bickering siblings. Occasionally, one adult splinters off to ride a section on his or her own. We are finding that flexibility and patience are key to family rides. More mountain biking vacations are on the horizon, and I'm excited to ride longer and more challenging trails with my whole family!
Want to get your kids, or a big group of kids, out on mountain bikes? Register an event, or search for one already planned, to celebrate IMBA's Take a Kid Mountain Biking Day, Oct. 4. The event, developed and coordinated by IMBA, strives to encourage communities around the world to join together and ride mountain bikes with youth. Over the years we've had tens of thousands of kids participate from across the globe, including: Italy, Australia, South Africa, Canada, Malaysia, and Mexico. Informal or formal, one child or 100 children, TKMBD celebrates the joy of riding in the dirt.


text:
Cyberbooth# 155
Buzz Bulb
Category: Household, Security, Safety
Unique features & benefits:
The Buzz Bulb is a specially designed screw-in sound alarm, in the shape of a light bulb, that instantly converts any motion detector security light fixture into a light and audible alarm.
While motion detectors shine light on an outside area to help prevent theft, because they are silent, intruders can dodge the light unseen and still break in.
By simply replacing one flood lamp of a dual lamp motion detector fixture with a Buzz Bulb, you now have light reinforced with sound.
When motion is detected, a continuous whistling blast (88-94 decibels) is simultaneously emitted from the Buzz Bulb, alerting residents and neighbors to the presence of intruders, and forcing intruders away from the area. The alarm keeps sounding until the area is clear and the detector automatically switches off.
The versatile Buzz Bulb can be used as a day or night local alarm as well as a hot circuit testing tool.
It is an ideal alarm device to protect:
- Outside sheds and workshops
- Garages
- Storage yards
- Gardens
At the suggested retail price is $29.95, the Buzz Bulb is an inexpensive added security and protection to any residential or commercial property.
Safety Device for Kids:
Applications without the use of a motion detector include:
- Alert Alarm - connected to an open/shut door or window switch
- Diet Control - using the Buzz Bulb in the refrigerator's light socket (will sound
when refrigerator door is opened!)
- Safety Alarm - wired to a smoke detector
- Signal Alarm - for the visually impaired
Target market:
1. Homeowners
Retail store sales and distribution.
Note: Over 40,000 Buzz Bulbs have been sold by mail order catalogs.
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Important Notice: Please note that the InventionConnection.com web site is strictly a premier showcase for inventions and is a networking venue where interested parties can find each other. The Invention Connection® has been online for 10 years and the InventionConnection® and Invention Convention® have jointly been acting as networking venues for over 20 years. All exhibitors are independent entrepreneurs, small companies or individuals who represent themselves and can be directly contacted by interested parties. InventionConnection.com does not participate nor get involved in any transactions between buyers and sellers and does not receive any royalty percentages. Invention Connection® does not act as licensing agents, Invention Connection® does not evaluate or market products, Invention Connection® is not an invention development firm, and Invention Connection® does not represent inventors nor take any percentages of royalties. The results of any contacts will vary for exhibitors depending on the merits of each invention, the experience of inventors in negotiating, what level of the invention process the inventor is at, what the inventor is looking for, as well as the dedication and commitment of the inventor, etc.
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or outdated contact info, or if you have
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Invention Connection®, Invention Convention® and Speedmarketing[tm] are trademarked.


text:
Chevrolet Corvair Corsa for Sale
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1966 Chevrolet Corvair Corsa Corsa
San Diego, CA
1966 Chevy Covair Corsa Convertible Vin 107676w144750 This 66 Corsa Convertible is considered to be the highpoint of the Corvair marque. Built for the budget minded... More
Offered By: Veloce Motorsales
1985 Chevrolet Corvair Corsa 1st Corvair in Carrera Pan America Race
Carnation, WA
1965 Corvair Corsa 140 -Only Corvair to start or complete Carrera Panamerican Road Race in Mexico! Color: Metallic Red with Black and red interior Engine: Corsa... More
Offered By: Giordano's Vintage Motors
1965 Chevrolet Corvair Corsa
1965 Chevrolet Corvair Corsa A budget minded performance enthusiast was thrilled in 1965 when Chevy introduced the new second generation Corvair, gone was the rear... More
Offered By: A1 R&R Classic Cars
Advertiser since 2005
Advertiser since 2005