text:
Truckee Police logs
April 10, 2013
Below are select incidents from the Truckee Police Department's press log for March 18-25, along with previously unreported incidents.
March 18
Officers took a report of an intoxicated subject repeatedly knocking on his ex-girlfriend's door on Donner Pass Road. The subject was detained and later released.
A driver was pulled over for vehicle code violation on Torrey Pine Road. The driver was arrested for carrying a concealed weapon within the vehicle.
March 20
Subject came to the police department stating he had a warrant for his arrest. Truckee Police Department dispatch confirmed that the subject had two outstanding warrants for his arrest. The subject was arrested and booked into Nevada County Sheriff's Office Jail in Truckee.
Recommended Stories For You
March 21
Officers stopped a vehicle for vehicle code violation. The driver was arrested for DUI and driving on a suspended driving license.
On 3/3/13 a subject was arrested for being intoxicated in public. On 3/21/13 the subject came to the police department to report his backpack was missing. The subject said he had the backpack prior to being arrested.
Officers located a subject who had a warrant for his arrest. The subject ran away on foot from officers but was located and arrested a short time later.
Officers contacted two subjects laying in the roadway on Deerfield Drive. One of the subjects had a warrant from Placer County. The subject was cited and released.
March 22
An unknown suspect used a victim's credit card information to purchase items off the internet.
Officers responded to a report of possible child abuse on Waters Way. Contact was made with the involved parties and there were no signs of abuse found. Report was taken for documentation only.
A victim of an apparent assault contacted the Truckee Police Department to file a report. The victim was assaulted at a local bar by an unknown subject. The victim did not wish prosecution; however, he wished the incident documented.
March 24
A subject reported he rode his bicycle through a roadway pot hole, which cost damage to his bike.
March 25
A subject called police to report that his girlfriend had left the house with several bottles of medicine and a picture of her son. The girlfriend then wrote him saying she was going to a place where she wouldn't be a bother to him. The girlfriend was located and transported to Tahoe Forest Hospital for a mental health evaluation.
Victim reported her advertising magnets were stolen off of her work vehicle on River Park Place.
Officers reported two vehicle, non- injury vehicle collision.


text:
Pandemic Flu Preparedness Tools
Preparedness Tools for Professionals
Resources to help hospital administrators and state and local health officials prepare for the next influenza pandemic.
- Software: CommunityFlu 2.0
Designed to enable public health officials, policy makers, and students of infectious diseases to examine the spread of influenza pandemic through a community.
- Software: FluAid 2.0
Designed to help state and local public health officials plan, prepare, and practice for the next flu pandemic.
- Software: FluSurge 2.0
Spreadsheet-based model that provides hospital administrators and public health officials with estimates of the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the next flu pandemic.
- FluLabSurge 1.0
A spreadsheet-based program designed to assist laboratory directors forecast demand for specimen testing during the next influenza pandemic (i.e., the surge in demand), and develop response plans.
- Software: FluWorkLoss 1.0
Estimates the potential number of days lost from work due to an influenza pandemic.
- Instructions to Estimate the Potential Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Upon Locale Y Using 1918 and 1968 Pandemic Scenarios [467 KB, 42 pages]
Includes basic instructions for the software programs FluAid and FluSurge as well as a template of a draft report.
- Page last reviewed: August 22, 2016
- Page last updated: June 21, 2012
- Content source:
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)
- Page maintained by: Office of the Associate Director for Communication, Digital Media Branch, Division of Public Affairs

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Phils seek reliable bridge to Papelbon
LOS ANGELES -- Another day, more bullpen discussions for the Phillies. They still can't find anybody to consistently pitch well in the sixth and seventh innings, and it bit them again in Wednesday's 5-2 loss.
"It's been talked about," manager Ryne Sandberg said. "It's been addressed. A number of guys have been given opportunities.
"That's been the case up to now. A lot of guys have had chances. We're trying to get the right combination. A lot of guys have had ups and downs."
Any reliever who comes out of the 'pen throwing strikes and mixing pitches as the club tries to get the ball to closer Jonathan Papelbon will become an instant hero to Sandberg, pitching coach Bob McClure and the rest of the Phillies.
The Phils' 5.64 bullpen ERA heading into Thursday was the worst in the Majors, just below the Tigers (5.63) and White Sox (5.47).
Scott Miller is a contributor to MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.


text:
A Comparison of Two Types of Injected Nutritional Supplements in Patients With AIDS and Pneumocystis Carinii Pneumonia (PCP)
- Full Text View
- Tabular View
- No Study Results Posted
- Disclaimer
- How to Read a Study Record
The objectives of this study are:
To establish whether there is a difference in clinical effectiveness of Liposyn II 20 percent as compared with Liposyn III 2 percent in AIDS patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). To compare the effects of the two lipid emulsions on immunologic function in AIDS patients. To compare the effect of the two lipid emulsions on HIV load in AIDS patients as measured by reverse transcriptase (RT) in culture. To determine whether a decrease in HIV infectivity is greater in patients given a parenteral feeding regimen containing Liposyn II 20 percent or Liposyn III 2 percent.
|HIV Infections
|Drug: Fat Emulsion 2% Drug: Fat Emulsion 20%
|Study Type:
|Study Design:
|Primary Purpose: Treatment
|Official Title:
|Lipid-Based Parenteral Nutritional Support in Patients With the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome and Pneumocystis Carinii Pneumonia. A Comparison of Two Lipid Formulations
|Ages Eligible for Study:
|18 Years to 60 Years (Adult)
|Sexes Eligible for Study:
|Accepts Healthy Volunteers:
Inclusion Criteria
Concurrent Medication:
- All drugs used for the standard treatment of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP).
- Other drugs for treatment of other AIDS conditions if they have been started more than 3 months prior to study entry.
Patients must have:
- Diagnosis of AIDS.
- Weight loss > 10 percent of premorbid body weight.
- First or second episode of acute Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP).
Exclusion Criteria
Co-existing Condition:
Patients with the following conditions or symptoms are excluded:
- Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) status.
- Biliary stasis.
Patients with the following are excluded:
- Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) status.
- Biliary stasis.
Prior Medication:
Excluded within 3 months of study entry:
- Immunomodulators.
- Antiviral new DT
Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00002275
|United States, New Jersey
|East Orange Veterans Administration Med Ctr
|East Orange, New Jersey, United States, 07018
|ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:
|NCT00002275 History of Changes
|Other Study ID Numbers:
|Study First Received:
|November 2, 1999
|Last Updated:
|February 19, 2009
Keywords provided by Abbott:
Weight Loss
Pneumonia, Pneumocystis carinii
Parenteral Nutrition
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Additional relevant MeSH terms:
HIV Infections
Immunologic Deficiency Syndromes
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Pneumonia, Pneumocystis
Lentivirus Infections
Retroviridae Infections
RNA Virus Infections
Virus Diseases
Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Viral
Sexually Transmitted Diseases
Immune System Diseases
Lung Diseases
Respiratory Tract Diseases
Respiratory Tract Infections
Slow Virus Diseases
Lung Diseases, Fungal
Pneumocystis Infections
Soybean oil, phospholipid emulsion
Fat Emulsions, Intravenous
Parenteral Nutrition Solutions
Pharmaceutical Solutions
ClinicalTrials.gov processed this record on September 21, 2017


text:
red zone efficiency
Hokepoints: Third Play Guy
Al Borges CMU press conference:
"He's a third play guy. You guys have heard me talk about the third play, right? He's a third play guy."
Devin Gardner's ridiculous redzone efficiency last year has gone to ludicrous this year. The standard answer we've been giving for this is "well his legs and size" but there's been more to it. I grabbed this one play from the ND game because it shows several things that Gardner and Borges have been doing to defeat what should have been one of their toughest redzone opponents.
The play:
What you saw: Michigan gets a 1st and goal from the 2 yard line after a pass interference. They line up in…is that an unbalanced formation? Then Devin checks out of it, runs what seems like an option play, then dives through the whole thing suddenly for the score. Afterward we learn Hoke was trying to call timeout.
Play the First: Ace 2TE Twins Unbalanced HB Dive:
It is unbalanced: Funchess (on the l.o.s. just outside the left hash) is covered by Reynolds, and Schofield
is an eligible receiver would be eligible if he had a non-OL number on. There's also some epic space between the end (Sheldon Day) and the linebacker to his side (Shembo).
The middle linebackers are seeing this and pointing. Let 'em; we're motioning to something else anyway.
[after the jump]
Shovel On A Little More Coal
9/7/2013 – Michigan 41, Notre Dame 30 – 2-0
Eric Upchurch
The media trend of the last ten years is a demonstration of the power of hope. There are now three national networks covering recruiting, plus ESPN, plus a cottage industry of who-dat bloggers who get picked up by these national networks far faster than actual journalism majors get picked up by, you know, newspapers. (Michigan has no journalism major, which explains why you can't throw a rock at a sports editor without causing him to hire a Daily grad.) This site alone saw two guys snapped up and almost hired a third who was snapped up just a bit later. Meanwhile, newspapers continue to give us Drew Sharp and wonder why they're withering on the vine.
Here's all you need to know about recruiting sites: they can charge for content on the internet. Hope, man. Hope.
Because the next guy is always going to be The Guy. The Guy will rescue us from the purgatory of not being Alabama and deliver us unto glory. He may be a defensive back, or a running back, or a quarterback, or a defensive lineman. He is going to be Woodson or Adrian Peterson or Andrew Luck or Jadeveon Clowney—except Clowney's defense just got torched for 41 points and lost.
Jadeveon Clowney! Indisputably The Guy, and somehow still not. If Jadeveon Clowney can't be the guy, well… there's always the recruiting sites. It's college football. The next arrival is always just around the corner.
Devin Gardner turned in what I can confidently state is the worst play in the history of organized football—I have watched all of it from Pop Warner on up—and was still awesome Saturday night. Awesome. I do not mean this in the Spots-gave-me-extra-wings way. I mean this in the light-from-the-sky, tremble-at-the-power, bow-down-lest-we-all-perish kind of way. If I could use the words "yea" and "lo" genuinely, I would deploy them now. The numbers are amazing. The numbers do not do it justice.
Here's the thing about Notre Dame's defense: it's going to be just fine. Gardner ate plenty of defensive lineman Saturday, usually after delivering a perfectly-placed dart. Notre Dame blitzed him almost two-thirds of the time and got the one huge mistake and nothing else. Notre Dame defensive backs were, with rare exceptions, in position to make a play on anything other than a perfectly-placed ball. They could not make plays without committing pass interference, called or not, because Devin Gardner was spitting hot death all night long.
If you happen to rewatch that game you'll see did-that-just-happen surgical strikes even more impressive the second time around.
On third and goal from the 14, Drew Dileo screwed up his route. He ran next to Gallon, bringing a third defender into the area. Gardner fired a ball in between all three guys that hit Gallon in the hands instead of the chest because KeiVarae Russell was riding him like a horse. Earlier in the drive he'd tossed up that back-shoulder throw that he might have been attempting against Central Michigan when he got hit, and Gallon plucked it out of the air. Russell was there. He just couldn't do anything about it.
By the fourth quarter, Gardner and Gallon had become so proficient at the back shoulder fade that Notre Dame was actually sitting on it, which I have never seen before. There were a lot of things last night that I haven't seen before in a winged helmet, that have traditionally been the province of passing specialists like Texas Tech. They tried to man up Crab, once, and Texas Tech beat the #1 team in the country without a running game or defense. Michigan has at least one of those.
In the aftermath, Michael Crabtree looked a lot like you did at some point last night:
Oh and Gardner led the team in rushing at 7.5 yards an attempt. He might be The Guy. Gardner hinted at this kind of thing over the last six games, and now he has delivered. You could feel it coming, maybe, but Michigan just graduated a guy who was The Guy, like Jadeveon Clowney is, and could not get over the hump, like Clowney. Even in the world where talent comes through it doesn't always end up steamrolling the opposition.
Devin Gardner just left Notre Dame a two-dimensional smudge in the rear view mirror, and now it's downhill for a while. Shovel on a little more coal, and let's watch old 98 roll.
Parkinggod has the Michigan stuff:
And Notre Dame has some things that Notre Dame did right:
Pressers are available from Maize and Blue News.
Gardner thing from Gameday:
Also a lady got hit real hard.
Brady Hoke Epic Double Point Of The Week. How does a guy who threw four touchdowns at nearly 10 YPA and ran for 90 additional yards split this award? Well, to get the award by himself he has to be a separate entity from guy who caught eight of his passes for 184 yards. This does not appear to be the case. DevinJeremy GardnerGallon, come on down.
Honorable Mention. Thomas Gordon and Jarrod Wilson (invisible all game in a good way), Drew Dileo (THROW IT TO DILEO), Brendan Gibbons (your record-holder for kicking consistency /2009 version of your head explodes), Blake Countess (drifted off his man for critical INT), Brian Kelly (thanks for not running the ball).
SPECIAL NEW RULE. Doubling points from this game because I can.
Epic Double Point Standings.
1.0: Devin Gardner (ND), Jeremy Gallon (ND)
0.5: Cam Gordon (CMU), Brennen Beyer (CMU)
Brady Hoke Epic Double Fist-Pump Of The Week. Since it featured Borges screwing with ND, an NFL dart from Gardner, a crazy spin move from Gallon, and Chesson The Destroyer reveling in the blood of the fallen, this is an easy pick:
Honorable mention: Countess's game-changing interception, Jeremy Jackson catching a long handoff for seven yards because ND is playing in the parking lot against Jeremy Jackson for some reason, Fitz Toussaint using a tackle attempt as an awesome juke to dart 20 yards when Michigan really needed something, either of Gardner's perfect back-shoulder throws to Gallon, Gardner nailing Gallon 40 yards downfield, and Gardner taking off on a zone read so open you'd think Stephen Threet was running it.
Epic Double Fist-Pumps Past.
8/31/2013: Dymonte Thomas introduces himself by blocking a punt.
9/7/2013: Jeremy Gallon spins through four Notre Dame defenders for a 61-yard touchdown.
[After THE JUMP: offense, defense, and everything in-between. Plus incredible chicken gif!]
Dear Diary Points at Rose Bowl
I didn't have the heart to remove Becky's photo from the top of the front page. Weird thing: the (presumed) student equipment manager is in shorts and a tee but Brady has both slacks and a jacket on. I clearly remember Carr was wearing just a white polo all game. Was Brady really jacketed while the other coaches remained unfettered? At 5:27 on the tape you can see long-sleeved Brady walking behind angry Lloyd trying to explain to SEC officials that hitting is allowed in football. Weird. Diaries.
Must Read: Eight Plays and Counting. I'll let EGD announce his latest thing:
This series examines the probable individual matchups Michigan would face against particular 2013 opponents on one of Michigan's key running plays and one of its key passing plays, as well as defensively against a couple of the opponent's key plays
So for example he'll take the play at right—the base 26 Power R, a common variation of Michigan's "Power O" (2 means RB carries it, 6 means they're going in the 6-hole, ie between the T and TE, and R means right)—and go through the personnel matchups on that play to see which team has an aggregate advantage. On the above Michigan's likely wins: Lewan on Prince Shembo. Things that seem to favor ND: Braden pulling to find WLB Dan Fox, down-blocks of Jack Miller on Sheldon Day, Kalis on Louis Nix, and Schofield on Tuitt, Joe Kerridge finding Danny Spond for a kick-out block, and Funchess executing a double-team on Tuitt then moving to the 2nd level to get to ND's middle linebacker. Advantage: Notre Dame, though I should point out a down block is one of the easier to accomplish since you start with leverage.
The Notre Dame one has three more plays: a PA pass from our offense, and then Michigan's D versus the Irish's base zone run and one of Kelly's favorite passing plays that we're guaranteed to see because it picks on Jarrod Wilson. Yesterday he posted a second one, which goes over UConn (M's power left and PA deep flood, and UConn's curls vs. Cov2 and 4-verts vs. Cov3). Again, these are things that schematically try to pick on Wilson. Part of that is there aren't many other unknowns on the defense, but I think it's becoming pretty clear where a lot of our attention is going to be early in the season. Prophesy: Wilson will look bad early in the season as offenses consistently do things that try to make him look so. In fact if he doesn't we may have something really nice there.
By the way EGD also updated his Non-Conference Recruiting Watch series a few weeks back. The guy with the Hail to the Thief avatar wins a trophy.
ESS-EEE-SEE! In people having fun with numbers you can find online, stopthewnba pulled January bowl data to show how the Big Ten has fared overall and against the SEC in all those virtual road games. It's not as bad as you might think, except when it comes to Rose Bowls (2-12 in the documented span) and times when a national championship is on the line or an erstwhile title contender dropped down into our range (USC vs. Michigan twice, MSU vs. Alabama). Something isn't right in his spreadsheet since I know for a fact that Northwestern isn't 2-and-anything in bowl games unless the data go back to the 1940s.
More interesting perhaps was maizeonblueaction's look at demographics since 1990 in Big Ten states versus SEC ones. In the comments EGD (man, that guy this week) suggested dividing the numbers by how many major conference (ACC/Big Ten/Big XII/Pac12/SEC plus Notre Dame) teams it has to support. So I did that, except I combined Indiana and Illinois since Chicago is really home territory for the Indiana schools. Result:
|Big5 Teams
|2012 Pop (est.)
|Ohio State
|New Jersey
|Florida, Miami (YTM), FSU
|Penn St, Pitt
|Texas, A&M, TT, TCU, Baylor
|Georgia, GTech
|Michigan, Michigan St
|Illinois & Indiana
|ND, NW, Ill, Pur, Indiana
|Tennessee, Vandy
|Bama, Auburn
|South Carolina
|S.C., Clemson
|Kentucky, Louisville
|Iowa, Iowa St
|Ole Miss, Miss State
The demographic shifts matter but not as much as people seem to think: the part of the population that will disproportionately devote their lives to football isn't the part that recently moved to Atlanta or Nashville to work for an insurance company or relocated to Florida because the weather's easier on their joints. Mississippi can support more and better football programs than New Jersey can because life in Mississippi is more likely to suck so hard that people are willing to do anything to their bodies to get those bodies out of there. Not so much for recent Jersey/St. Louis/Philly transplants, but Ohio State's position in Ohio is a major advantage indeed.
This is bound to change now. LSAClassof2000 looked at red zone offense in the Big Ten since 2008: Michigan is second to last in overall success rate to the Hoosiers until you add Maryland and Rutgers, both worse. Less than a quarter of Michigan's red zone trips ended with a passing touchdown in that time. Our 2009 (converting just 2/3rds of possible points) matches Indiana's 2008 for most brutal ever. However this has improved dramatically every year since, and the 2012 team was really good at converting red zone trips into points (5.28 per drive), though getting there (3.54 times per game, about 40th percentile among data points) was a problem. In the comments I resorted the data to see where Michigan's teams fell. Wisconsin had the top three red zone teams. Michigan's 2012 was 12th out of 70. Suggestion for further study: I bet you this correlates to experience of the starting quarterback.
Etc. The Big Ten meets the Big Lebowski—I didn't find the comparisons all that close. K.o.k.Law is reminiscing about going to the basketball championship game. Moderator JustinGoBlue is MGoProfiled by M-Wolverine. Solar team's new car and discussion of semiconductor theory.
[Jump: Best of the Board, Zen]
Boot On The Other Throat
- 2011 san diego state
- blake countess
- courtney avery
- game columns
- game theory
- i am slowly mollifying as the hoke era proceeds
- jake ryan
- MANBALL is +EV
- mark huyge
- mark huyge is shifty eyed dog
- michigan marching band
- mike martin
- passing concepts
- red zone efficiency
- ryan van bergen
- ryan van bergen philosopher king
- troy woolfolk
- vincent smith
9/24/2011 – Michigan 28, San Diego State 7 – 4-0
A long, long time ago now a Lloyd-Carr coached Michigan team was struggling through the 2005 season when they met Northwestern. A lot of throws to Tacopants (Jason Avant's 11-foot-tall imaginary friend) on both sides later, Michigan emerged with a 33-17 win and I embarked on one of the first of an endless procession of stat-nerd diatribes about the evils of punting.
You've probably heard it already: punting decisions have not kept pace with the increasingly offensive nature of the game, leaving coaches in a perpetual state of risk- and win-avoidance. Romer paper, Pulaski High, Mathlete chart. Etc.
In this particular Northwestern game, though, Carr went for it on fourth and five from the Northwestern 23, a decision I thought was too aggressive(!). When paired with a number of similarly aggressive calls from earlier that season, it seemed like a sea change for the old man:
In multiple cases he's made tough, correct decisions: going on fourth and goal from the one against Wisconsin, pounding it into the line twice against Michigan State, etc. Even when the strategy has backfired, he accepts the downside and persists in a more aggressive posture.
In context, the Penn State gaffe seems more like one last hit of that sweet Bombay Popsicle* snuck in-between rehab sessions than evidence of 1970s thinking taking hold. Lloyd Carr has checked himself in to the Betty Ford Center for Coaches Addicted to Low Variance. I wouldn't expect a flying-colors discharge any time soon, but he's made the first, biggest step.
*[I don't know either.]
That change lasted into the fourth quarter of that year's Ohio State game. Having acquired a two-score lead by converting a fourth and inches around the Michigan 40, Carr reverted to his primitive instincts at the crucial moment. With three minutes left from the Ohio State 40, he called for a wide receiver screen on third and ten. It gained six yards. With a two point lead, three minutes on the clock, no Ohio State timeouts left, and a fourth and four on the Ohio State 34, Carr punted. Ohio State drove for a touchdown; Carr would never again have the opportunity to kill a game against the Buckeyes.
In the moment, Carr choked. Six years on that single decision seems like the best way to explain why a lot Michigan fans found his tenure frustrating despite its high rate of success: the program was perpetually making poor decisions because a combination of fear and arrogance. Something could go wrong if you made a high variance decision, and Michigan could spit on expected value because This Is Michigan. See any game in which Michigan acquired an 18-point lead or the first half of the Orange Bowl for confirmation.
Carr coached like he had a kickass running game and killer defense no matter the facts, which was the difference between being a legend and a being a B+ coach who lost the battle with Tressel authoritatively. Hell, even Tressel blew games when he failed to adjust to the reality that sometimes his defense and special teams were not enough, and he ran roughshod over the Big Ten for nine years.
Part of the reason a segment of the Michigan fanbase (including the author) blew up at Hoke's hire is because it seemed to represent a return to that expectation-spurning 1970s decision-making.
Brady Hoke put a lot of those fears to rest by going for—and getting—the win against Notre Dame with eight seconds left. That decision was a no-brainer. If the field goal team had run out onto the field, I would have been livid. That was a test he passed, but it was one with a low bar.
On Saturday, Hoke sent out the punting team with about two and a half minutes left in the first half. It was fourth and two around midfield, and I was mildly peeved. It was not the percentage play, but I've watched a lot of football and it seemed too much to hope that even the rootin'est, tootin'est, eyepatch-wearingest pirate of a head coach would go for it. Needing more than a sneak and up fourteen in the first half, the world punts. My peevishness was directed at football coaches in general, not Hoke in particular.
And then.
And then an angel came down from the sky, and signaled timeout. Great trumpets erupted from the flagpoles, playing a fanfare as a golden staircase descended. Each of the steps was engraved with the names of World Series of Poker winners. Down from the clouds strode Doyle Brunson, clad in a jacket of hundred-dollar bills. And lo, Texas Dolly spaketh unto the people: "check-raise." Brady Hoke sent the offensive line onto the field.
This was a really, really good decision. Even if you don't believe the exact outlines of the Mathlete's calculations, it is not close: average offense versus average defense means the break-even line is around eight yards. This was not an average situation. Michigan had Denard Robinson against a pretty horrible run defense. And that number does not take into account the game situation. If Michigan gets the first down they are almost certainly robbing San Diego State of a possession. Punting gets you thirty, forty yards of field position. Getting the first down puts you in good position to score and is essentially another +1 in turnover margin. You need two yards and you have Denard Robinson.
stealing a joke from the internet: the guy on the right looks like he just looked into the Ark of the Covenant. via the News.
One speed option later Michigan was en route to the endzone and had essentially ended the game. Without that massively +EV decision they go into halftime up maybe 14, maybe 11, maybe 7 points. That ugly third quarter becomes the gut-check time most were predicting before the game. Maybe Michigan comes out on top (24-21, say). Maybe not. That didn't happen because when Michigan had its boot on San Diego State's neck, Hoke called Z 22 stomp right.
The Lloyd Carr example above shows we don't know that Hoke's going to do this consistently, that he'll stick to the non-pejorative MANBALL when the pressure is at its greatest, but so far so good. Even my doubts about Hoke's ability to math up in the waning moments of an Ohio State game are faint. When things go wrong he does not scowl or pout or throw headsets like Rich Rodriguez or Brian Kelly or Bo Pelini. He does not go on tilt. He calmly talks to guys about what in the hell they were thinking.
Hoke continues to leave best-case scenarios in the dust. Saturday night I watched Dennis Erickson punt on fourth and five from the USC 37 and thought "my coach would never do that." Then I watched Erickson chew out the punter who put the ball in the endzone because that's what happens when you punt from the 37 and thought "my coach would never do that."
That felt good. It felt invent-a-time-machine-to-assure-yourself-its-all-going-to-be-okay good. It feels like Michigan has finally learned how to gamble.
+EV Non-Bullets
Boy do I want to play poker with certain people on the internet. Evaluating the decision has popped up on every Michigan message board. It's mostly been met with praise, but man, there are a lot of people who can't estimate and multiply out there. Maybe it's Carr Stockholm syndrome.
Photoset. The SDSU photoset comes via Eric Upchurch and the Ann Arbor Observer:
A reminder: anything on the MGoBlog photostream is creative-commons licensed, free to use for non-commercial applications. Attribution to Eric Upchurch, the Observer, and MGoBlog is appreciated.
Mark Huyge is delighted to be here. From the above SDSU photoset.
It's not quite the Molk death glare. It's more like Shifty-Eyed Dog.
Try to look at Mark Huyge ever again without having that play in your head.
Eric also managed to get a picture of Denard looking sad after a win, which I thought was not possible, and this shot of a fully-padded Van Bergen about to opine on Kant:
That's a great question. Just as our rationality leads us to a belief in an objective reality, Kant believed there is an objective morality we can locate from the same process. The Categorical Imperative is an absolute, fundamental moral law on par with Minnesota losing to teams from the Dakotas. Things are either right or wrong—there are no gray areas, and context does not apply. You could call him the BJ Daniels of philosophy*.
*[Ten-cent summary of Kantian philosophy cribbed from Three Minute Philosophy, which is terrific. Philosophers wishing to quibble with my paraphrase of a comedic summary are invited to consider the moral consequences of their actions and also jump in a lake. USF fans wishing to WOO BJ DANIELS can skip to the latter.]
And the internet eeeed Countess. When Troy Woolfolk headed to the sidelines, all Michigan fans everywhere winced. When Blake Countess replaced JT Floyd in the third quarter, all Michigan fans everywhere prepared for the deluge.
It never came, and as a result everyone from my uncle to the internet to the newspapers are having little freakouts about Michigan's #4 corner. I am with all of you. The only thing stopping Countess from having a few PBUs or interceptions was Ryan Lindley's inability to throw the ball anywhere near the guys Countess had blanketed but Lindley targeted anyway.
For most of the third quarter I stopped watching the offensive backfield and started watching downfield coverage and while I won't be able to confirm this on the tape I think Countess was doing really well even when people weren't going after him. I'm with the rest of the internet when I suggest that Troy Woolfolk should take the Minnesota game off to recover from his multiple nagging injuries so we can see some more of the freshman.
I thought Avery did well, too. He had a third-down slant completed on him and was the DB victimized on the touchdown but in both cases he was right there tackling/raking at the ball. Is he doing something wrong I'm not perceiving yet? Because I think he's playing better than Woolfolk, who gave up some groan-worthy easy completions. (I don't blame him for allowing Hillman to bounce on one third down conversion because he was clearly held.)
Release the Martin. This week in the I-told-you-so files: Mike Martin is just fine. His good day last week was obscured by EMU never throwing and having quite a bit of success attacking away from him. Against SDSU he was nigh unblockable, bowling a veteran offensive line over backwards multiple times and drawing holding calls left and right. Craig Roh had two big plays and will show up doing little things when I do the UFR; Will Campbell had a couple of line-pushing plays. Hillman's YPC was still over five, so there are issues but I think a big chunk of them are localizable to…
Problems. So… everyone's talking up Jake Ryan, too. I'm with everyone in a general, long-term sense but a little less enthused about his performance on Saturday. One of the results of the first few weeks of UFRing/picture paging is that whenever the opponent tries to get outside I immediately focus on Ryan. Result from last week: three "aaargh Ryan" screams that no one in my section comprehended. He's still giving up the corner way too easy.
Also, there are two caveats to an otherwise encouraging performance from the secondary. One: Lindley and his receivers were flat bad as a group. Drops, bad routes, and bad throws artificially boosted Michigan's efficiency against him. Some of that was caused by pressure. Some of it was just a crappy opponent. Two: I wonder if Michigan's familiarity with the SDSU offense allowed them to beat the Aztecs' favorite routes into Michigan DBs heads.
Still, 5.3 YPA and actual depth at corner. +1 Mallory.
Offensive construction bits. Another week, another confirmation that running Denard is the offense. While I still groan whenever they line up under center, snaps from there were limited. I would really prefer it if they never ran I-form power on first and ten again, though. They've mixed in some inexplicably effective short play action so far; if they can't run that will probably dry up.
Things I liked: That screen to Smith. The essence of an RPS+3 is when three offensive linemen have no one to block for 30 yards. And then the much-discussed speed option debuted. I'd gotten a couple insider emails telling me it was part of the offense but thought it would be extremely bad form to publish that, so I'd been waiting. It was quite a debut.
I'm hoping we see Borges add wrinkles at the same rate Rodriguez did. He'll have to to keep the run offense ahead of the wolves. He's off to a good start.
via the Detroit News.
Tailbacks. I'm suddenly happy with Michigan's tailback situation after Vincent Smith made a lot of yards on his own, including the above touchdown where he kept his balance at about the five and managed to drag a safety into the endzone. There was also the zone play where he squeezed through a crack in the line it's possible literally no other D-I back would have fit through.
Toussaint, meanwhile, didn't have the yards Smith did but ran hard on the inside; I still like him best but understand if they're going to split duties between the top two. I feel bad for Shaw—maybe it's time to put him on kickoffs? He's got speed Smith does not.
The Denard question. So they did run a curl-flat. Denard went to the curl way late and threw his first interception. Not sure if that was schemed or just bad execution by the offense. If it's the latter that might be attributable to not running it over the offseason as Borges attempted to install his route packages, route packages that now seem like things Denard just can't do.
A three-point plan in an attempt to get Denard back on track:
- Stop throwing on the run.
- Provide some easy throws early—all hitch, snag—in an effort to get him calmed down.
- Develop some sort of counter-punch to the opponent getting all up in Denard's face on the rollout PA. A shovel pass?
Bending but not breaking. Michigan's giving up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. Frankly, some of this is luck. They are acquiring turnovers at an unsustainable rate. Not unsustainable for a mediocre defense, unsustainable for Michigan 1997. When the well dries up they'll do some more breaking.
The other thing is the secondary. Michigan's newfound ability to make plays on deep balls and Jordan Kovacs being stone-cold reliable (so far /crosses self) have erased cheap touchdowns for the opposition. WMU's touchdown came on a 15-play drive. ND touchdown drives went 7, 10, 7, and 4 plays. San Diego State's took six plays but started from the Michigan 38. The only quick drive Michigan's given up all year was ND's desperation drive, on which Michigan gave up chunks on purpose because of the time situation and then tried an NFL-style defense they weren't ready for and blew it. The longest touchdown other than that was the 16-yard pass Lindley hit in the third quarter.
Opponents have ripped off chunks on occasion, but they have not been handed free touchdowns. Michigan's at least making them earn it. That's a necessary first step on the road away from completely awful.
The next opponent. When Minnesota managed to hang with USC on the first weekend of the season they seemed like they might be more intimidating than your average Minnesota team. Then they lost to Not Even The Good New Mexico and North Dakota State and seemed even less intimidating than your average Minnesota team. Compounding matters: Jerry Kill is again out of commission with his seizure issue.
Drumline? Drumline:
I did not VOAV this week for reasons of being spooked. Boyz In The Pahokee provided the usual bounty if you are jonesing.
ST3 goes Inside the Box Score:
Matt Wile. Wait, let me try that again. MATT WILE!!! Yeah, I think he was properly pumped up to play his Dad's team. Net yards per kickoff were 50 for SDSU and 49.2 for UofM. To be even on kickoffs is a win for us. Net yards per punt were 34.7 for SDSU and 43.5 for Michigan. To gain almost a full first down per punt is huge. Two punts were inside the 20, and two were 50+ yards. #82, Terrance Robinson had 2 ST tackles and did a great job as the gunner on punts.
Wile's just lost his punting job; if that allows him to improve his kickoffs and compete for the field goal job, Michigan's kicking could be one of those strength things by midseason.
Lordfoul's weekly Hoke for Tomorrow:
Michigan needs Hagerup back.Maybe Hagerup isn't the only answer. Wile's kicks are improving it would seem, both on KOs and punts, possibly because his nerves are settling down. Kickoffs regularly made it to the goal line and only 1 of 4 punts was returned for much while they averaged 49 yards per with a long of only 51(!).
Player participation notes from jtmc33.
Media, as in files: Brady Hoke pointing at something. Hugs and Ryan Van Bergen's ripped jersey. AnnArbor.com's photo gallery.
MVictors got a few sideline shots, including SDSU's mascot:
You see that conch shell he's got in his hand? At some point in the first half he was talking into it like it was a cell phone. That is all.
Media, as in blog rabble. BWS hops aboard the Countess bandwagon and points out Denard can't throw.
MGoBlog : The Big Lebowski :: The Hoover Street Rag : The Hunt For Red October:
After the Notre Dame game, I tweeted very simply: "And the singing, Captain?" "Let them sing." The moment was too good to start worrying about the future. But at some point, the future arrives and you need to deal with it. How well prepared you are for that future plays a large role in how well you're able to handle it when the moment arrives. The non-conference schedule, particularly one played as four games at the start of the season should, theoretically, be a nice combination of challenges and the working out of kinks. Before the mission starts, you must know the capacity and capabilities of your crew.
Touch the Banner provides the usual breakdown, says we should see "no one" less on the defense. Whoah. MGoFootball highlights the tailbacks, says D is a live.
Media, as in local newspaper. John Niyo on the defense, which is extant. Chengelis on the fact the team is not vintage. San Diego State had big pictures of their former coaches as signals. The Daily on RVB's Hillman chase:
Fifth-year senior defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen caught Hillman from behind inside the 10-yard line and knocked the ball loose for the second fumble.
Try reading it this way: a 288-pound defensive tackle caught the nation's second-leading rusher from behind in the open field — 30 yards away from the line of scrimmage.
Van Bergen got a block from fifth-year senior defensive tackle Mike Martin, but most of his help came from practice.
"But when it comes down to it, we have the most explosive player in the country in our backfield," Van Bergen said. "We get to play against (junior quarterback) Denard (Robinson), so we've learned how to take angles at guys who have speed.
"I took off on my horse just thinking, 'I've almost caught Denard before, maybe I can catch this guy.' "
AnnArbor.com writes similarly. The San Diego perspective:
"They were very emotional after the game, depressed, disappointed, upset, however you want to say," said Long, whose team dropped to 3-1 after Saturday's 28-7 defeat. "It was a very emotional locker room after the game and not in a good sense."
They probably would have done a "poor job" of answering questions, Long said, so he kept them behind closed doors. "It's my job to protect them," Long said Sunday. "This is not pro football." …
"The defense got shocked by the speed of especially one guy (Robinson)," Long said. "They got shocked by the strength they had up front and the speed of quarterback early in the game."
Nesbitt on Denard's twitter adventure. Meinke points out Michigan's massive uptick in red zone efficiency:
• Offensively, Michigan is 13-for-13 on red-zone opportunities. It is one of 13 teams in the country to have scored on every trip inside the 20-yard line this year.
• Even better? The Wolverines have scored touchdowns on 12 of those 13 trips. That 92-percent touchdown rate trails only Texas Tech nationally.
One of the main arguments made in favor of Shotgun Forever is that red zone efficiency is not a stat that shows much repeatable skill year to year and that the huge chunks of yards Michigan picked up without, you know, scoring in 2010 would turn into points if you just left the damn thing alone (and got a kicker). The early returns are excellent.
National takes. Smart Football:
- Michigan 28, San Diego State 7. Brady Hoke's new team faced his old team, and I'm still not sure, despite their 4-0 record, that we know anything about this Michigan football team. The defense seems to be improving under DC Greg Mattison, but they've been using so much movement and motion to cover up their talent weaknesses it's unclear how the defense will fare against a polished opponent. And while the offense has found a better rhythm running a Rich Rodriguez-lite Denard Robinson attack — including Denard's long TD run on the speed option — his passing line was abysmal: 8 of 17 for 93 yards, no TDs and two interceptions. He's obviously uncomfortable in the new offense. He looked like a more polished and comfortable passer last year. I chalk some of this up to the fact that the very techniques he's using are new, but he's going to have to improve for UM to have success. That said, given Michigan's favorable schedule — no Wisconsin and the easy part of the Big 10 schedule up next — we may not learn anything about Michigan until the last three weeks of the season, when they play Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State.
No one else bothered. A couple weeks after puntosauring himself into a loss against Iowa State, BHGP documents Kirk Ferentz opening Iowa's game against ULM in a shotgun spread, demonstrating the Carr thing above perfectly.
Beating The Shotgun Horse
MGoBlog: where no sleeping dog is left to lie, and no dead horse is to remain unbeaten. -Blue in South Bend
left via
In re: shotgun + Denard + site obsession with Denard in shotgun, Football Study Hall put up a post with interception rates that highlights one of the many problems Michigan had turning yards into points last year: Denard's interception rate. Amongst a sample of 100 D-I quarterbacks* he finishes 84th. The only BCS quarterbacks to do worse were Garrett Gilbert, Stephen Garcia, Jeremiah Masoli, Steven Threet, BJ Daniels, and Jacory Harris. This is not good company. Harris and Garcia are 1-2 on this list…
1. Jacory Harris. The nation's leader in zesty interceptions won't let being benched stop him. If it gets too bad with new boss Al Golden, he'll just go throw 'em in the street if he has to, because swag like Jacory's never sleeps, and when it does it lands wherever it wants.
2. Stephen Garcia. With confidence. With verve. With GARCIA.
…and the omission of BJ Daniels, who either throws an 87 yard touchdown or three interceptions every play, must have been an oversight thanks to South Florida's ability to fade into the background.
Denard's interceptions weren't zesty. They were like—and I say this in all seriousness—watching the cutest puppy in the world fly headlong into another puppy's head, killing both. The defense was like watching the puppy blood run into the gutter. This is the most precise analogy ever made. Also the field goal kicking was like watching the deceased puppies reanimate just so they could poop all over everything. The Rich Rodriguez era: defined.
Right. So forwards into the endless and admittedly pretty pointless discussion about the best thing to do for the team the next couple years when they have a 5'11" dreadlocked bolt of lightning at quarterback. My position is blindingly clear: Shotgun Today, Shotgun Tomorrow, Shotgun Forever. For the next two years, at least.
Objections raised from the comments largely revolve around the idea that last year's turnover and redzone performances were flukes that should be expected to magically repair themselves. An example:
I think its a pretty big reach to say there's any "evidence" to suggest that the offense will revert to the mean. College Football red zone offenses are not random occurrences within a normal population. Oregon and Auburn weren't so good in the red zone because they got randomly lucky. Michigan wasn't terrible because we weren't randomly unlucky.
The offense was terrible in the red zone because:
1) Nobody could make a FG longer than 25 yards (this isn't something that will revert until someone can kick the ball)
2) Our offense simply didn't work as well in the red zone (I don't know why---playcalling, B1G defenses, nerves, but it isn't something that happened because of random chance)
There is no guaranteed regression to the mean in nonrandom circumstances, like football. Michigan was terrible in the red zone because being terrible in the red zone WAS the mean for Michigan in 2010.
You hope #1 will be solved by the addition of Matt Wile. We are all gunshy about this but highly rated kickers—which Wile was by the end of the year—usually do well. That actually turns out to be irrelevant, about which see this long footnote**. The redzone issues come down to two things: turnovers, about which see above, and giving the ball back on downs.
Michigan did the latter four times last year, all of them late in already-decided games (one against Wisconsin and OSU, two against Mississippi State). They missed one field goal. They failed to score eleven more times because they straight-up turned the ball over.
As far as #2, the whole reason people do these study things and use stats is to have something to argue against people who use the word "simply" as their conversational gambit. Oh, it's simple to you, is it? Well, fine then. I guess you and your galaxy-spanning intellect win. It is possible that NFL football is so different than college football that studies do not cross over, but it is extremely unlikely, and that FO study showed really good redzone teams one year are almost precisely average the next.
In Michigan's case they should expect more than randomness to work in their favor. The common thread of Rich Rodriguez's tenure at Michigan was young or terrible quarterbacks. Three years of Threet/Sheridan, Forcier/Denard, Denard/Forcier should see you give away turnovers like they're candy. There are no upperclassmen on that list except the walk-on; there's only a few confused snaps from a hopelessly raw Denard preventing that list from having any sophomore starters.
The spread 'n' shred in general and Rodriguez in particular haven't shown they are turnover-prone. On the contrary, being able to run 70% of the time and have a good offense should cut down on turnovers since passes are inherently more risky.
From Maize 'n' Brew:
And that is what this comes down to. Common sense. Your eyes. If your eyes are telling you that you're watching a turd of a football game, well... you are. If your reaction to the Wisconsin Michigan game was that Michigan just got completely curb stomped by Wisconsin in the first half, mounted a minor comeback when Wisconsin took a third quarter nap, and then still got blown out by 20 points at home, well... that's what you saw. Perhaps the stats tell a different story. Maybe. But while the stats say that Michigan ran up an astounding 442 yards against Wisconsin they don't relate what actually happened at the game.
I try to back up my opinions with statistical evidence because the use of tools is the thing that separates bloggers and chimpanzees from other primates like newspaper columnists and sports talk radio hosts not on WTKA.
If you want to go on your gut, I can do that too: Michigan has a 5'11"-ish quarterback who ran for 1700 yards last year and an offensive line that's now 100% recruited to zone block all day. They don't really have a promising running back. I feel, like, not good, man, about Michigan in the I-form.
Or I could say that "common sense" suggests that Wisconsin was not trying to let Michigan score in the third quarter and that the overall results should be taken in appropriate context, but then we're back to feelings, man.
What Is The Core?
I just don't see how the spread offense is responsible for turnovers except insofar as it puts an erratic Denard Robinson on the field instead of a finely-polished artillery piece, and who wants to fix Michigan's issues by replacing Denard Robinson?
/Munn Ice Arena
/people stapling each other's hands to their sides just in case they have a hand-raising seizure
Not having Denard drop back from center does not make his throwing mechanics worse. If anything it allows him to ignore a complicated facet of football—NFL coaches are constantly bitching that college quarterbacks no longer know how to execute a five-step drop—and focus on throwing it to the guy who's really open because you're not running the ball.
Meanwhile, the run game was kind of good last year despite having the worst set of tailbacks at Michigan since at least that year BJ Askew got half the carries. This is directly attributable to putting Robinson in a position to run, something an I-form doesn't.
There are quarterback draws and waggle plays, yes. Opponents will be all over them because those are constraint plays—not your base. Smart Football on how you build an offense:
The idea is that you have certain plays that always work on the whiteboard against the defense you hope to see — the pass play that always works against Cover 3, the run play that works against the 4-3 under without the linebackers cheating inside. Yes, it is what works on paper. But we don't live in a perfect world: the "constraint" plays are designed to make sure you live in one that is as close as possible to the world you want, the world on the whiteboard.
Constraint plays thus work on defenders who cheat. For example, the safety might get tired of watching you break big runs up the middle, so he begins to cheat up. Now you call play-action and make him pay for his impatience. The outside linebackers cheat in for the same reason; to stop the run. Now you throw the bubble screen, run the bootleg passes to the flat, and make them pay for their impatience. Now the defensive ends begin rushing hard upfield; you trap, draw, and screen them to make them pay for getting out of position. If that defensive end played honest your tackle could block him; if he flies upfield he cannot. Constraint plays make them get back to basics. Once they get back to playing honest football, you go back to the whiteboard and beat them with your bread and butter.
The argument here is about the core of the offense: in the I-form that's Denard dropping back to pass or handing off to someone else. In the shotgun it's the zone running game. As the core of the offense you can't remove Denard from the game. You cheat and then there's a guy wide open. While Denard's legs are a terrifying constraint, Michigan has to force the opponent to cheat to use them.
I'll believe these tailbacks and this offensive line and this almost total lack of fullback and tight end can do that running power up the middle when I see it. If they can't you've just taken the most dangerous weapon in college football*** out of the game. You shouldn't do that. It's common sense.
*[I'm not sure why there were 100 quarterbacks instead of approximately 120 + a few injury replacements, so keep that in mind.]
**[Long aside on Michigan's historically awful field goal kicking goes here. Nonnair posted a diary asserting that the lack of field goal kicking was not a factor in red zone efficiency because Michigan actually scored more points than they could have if they kicked it:
The other seven fourth-down attempts I am dividing into two groups: (1) FG is the likeliest option and only a riverboat gambling coach or a team without a FG kicker would go for it, and (2) FG is only a possible option, either because it'd be very long, or because there was only 1 yard to gain for a first down so going for it is a viable option.
Bottom line? If we had tried FGs on all seven of those drives last year, even if we had Adam Vinatieri circa 2002 and he went 7-for-7, the most UM could have scored was 21 points.
As it was? UM got 27 points out of those drives. Six more points.
This is only one half of the equation, though, because Michigan did attempt a bunch of field goals and they went like this:
All that red in the Michigan zone is value earned by the offense that was lost by the kicker on obvious kicking opportunities. So on the field goals Michigan tried last year, we threw away 16 points, versus the six this study shows M getting back by being forced to do a statistically correct thing that teams don't usually do because their fans don't trust statistics.
Misopogon threw this behind a jump on Sunday.
Nonnair turns out to be right: the field goal kicking did not have much of an impact on the red zone efficiency because Michigan's misses are all clustered just outside. However, the statistically correct behavior Michigan engaged in also had no effect. Six of the seven attempts were outside the red zone and the one that was inside it, a fourth and one from the Penn State 13, was converted and led to a field goal anyway.
So we're down to just the massive turnovers. I hope this section has highlighted how goofy red zone efficiency is.]
***[Other than Charles Robinson.]
Shotgun Yesterday, Shotgun Today, Shotgun Tomorrow, Shotgun Forever
via flickr user larrysphatpage
Almost nothing drives me more insane than someone who proclaims certain numbers to be bad because these other numbers are better without suggesting a mechanism that would make this true. Via Slate, Murray Chass provides the canonical example:
The stats freaks who never saw a decimal point they didn't worship were ecstatic last year when Zack Greinke won the American League Cy Young award while winning only 16 games. Felix Hernandez, who won 19 and whose 2.49 earned run average was second to Greinke's 2.16, would have been my choice, but the stats guys "proved" that Greinke was the correct choice because of his statistical standing in formulaic concoctions in which we mere mortals do not imbibe.
—Murray Chass, murraychass.com, May 9, 2010.
This makes me clench and unclench my fists helplessly. It seems impossible that you could be this venerated New York Times baseball writer without picking up on the fact that AL pitchers have no control over how many runs their team scores. The fists clench and unclench because attempting to model an argument with Murray Chass about this quickly leads into a cul-de-sac where Chass says something condescending about something he doesn't understand and repeats it ad nauseum as if he believes "no blood for oil" or "drill, baby, drill" is a coherent, self-contained, impregnable point of view.
Presenting Jonah Lehrer, who actually manages to write for Wired despite being able to compose the following:
Consider the case of J.J. Barea. During the regular season, the backup point guard had perfectly ordinary statistics, averaging 9.5 ppg and shooting 44 percent from the field. His plus/minus rating was slightly negative. There was no reason to expect big things from such a little player in the playoffs.
And yet, by Game 4 of the NBA Finals, Barea was in the starting lineup. (This promotion came despite the fact that he began the Finals with a 5-for-23 shooting slump and a minus-14 rating.) What Dallas coach Rick Carlisle wisely realized is that Barea possessed something that couldn't be captured in a scorecard, that his speed and energy were virtues even when he missed his layups (and he missed a lot of layups), and that when he made those driving floaters their value exceeded the point score. Because nothing messes with your head like seeing a guy that short score in the lane. Although Barea's statistics still look pretty ordinary — his scoring average fell in the Finals despite the fact that he started — the Mavs have declared that re-signing him is a priority. Because it doesn't matter what the numbers say. Barea won games.
A man who writes for Wired ascribes JJ Barea's value to "nothing messes with your head like seeing a guy that short score in the lane." Fists clenching and unclenching due to impossibility of refuting argument that stupid. Plenty of other people have tried to do so. Some guy at Deadspin who pointed out that the Mavs are amongst the most stat-obsessed teams in the league. A Baseball Prospectus guy tore apart Lehrer's introductory car analogy, in which car buyers who focus on a couple of barely relevant but easily understandable numbers instead of the important, hard-to-quantity data are Bill James, not Joe Morgan.
It doesn't matter, though. These articles always have a tautologically number-negating logic. The argument goes:
- I don't understand statistics*.
- People who understand statistics don't understand intangibles.
- ???
- Therefore my understanding is superior.
Now let's talk about Denard Robinson and last year's offense.
*[This lack of understanding can be many things but is always at least this: statistics are a suggestive tool, not math gospel. To be fair, some people use statistics like they are a golden hammer. These people are very annoying and should be yelled at. Just don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. ]
This came up a lot in the aftermath of the Spring Game, when the quarterbacks strove to make themselves indistinguishable from walk-ons and quite a lot of people put finger under collar and went "uggggghhh." This was met with a round of backlash largely consisting of people pointing at select—sometimes hilariously select—statistics from last year's team in an effort to prove the offense wasn't really that good.
The favorite was a focus on the first halves against good opponents, when Michigan did not score points. This did not escape notice even around here:
The Ohio State game has the power to make whatever happens in it seem like Michigan's season in microcosm, and so the overriding theme of the 2010 season is looking up at the scoreboard at halftime to see Michigan on pace for about 500 yards and about twenty points. Michigan had 238 yards and seven points this time around and instead of a competitive game we got the usual.
Michigan was frustratingly spectacular at getting to the half with almost 300 yards and something like ten points on the board. But using points to evaluate the output of an offense is like using wins to evaluate a pitcher. Events outside the entity you are trying to evaluate have so much impact on that number, it is only a fuzzy explanation of the story.
I have engaged in message board fights and observed many more about whether the Wisconsin game was a failure on the offense's part. At the half the score was 28-0 Wisconsin and the game was as good as over, whereupon Michigan came out of the locker room and scored three straight touchdowns against the UW defense. This would have made the game interesting if Michigan could have forced the Badgers to pass, ever.
My fists do the clenching bit whenever anyone tries to claim the Wisconsin game was evidence Michigan should move away from the spread. The Michigan offense's entire first half:
Michigan drives from their own one yard line to
the Wisconsintheir 35 before punting.
- Michigan drives from their 28 to the Wisconsin 13; Seth Broekhuizen misses a 30-yard field goal.
- Three and out from the 36.
- Three and out from the 40.
(There was also a meaningless two play drive at the end of the half.) That's not a great four drives. It is a great seven drives if you consider the next three. Meanwhile, the final touchdown against UW is often dismissed as "garbage time" but Badger tacklers on that drive include JJ Watt, Patrick Butrym, and Aaron Henry—all starters—and Michigan hit Roundtree three times for more than 20 yards on a three-minute march. That was not Wisconsin's goal. Even if you still dismiss Michigan's last couple drives as garbage you have to acknowledge that the defense's inability to make them meaningful robbed the offense of opportunities to impress for real.
But you're sitting there and your fists are clenching and unclenching and everything is black and doom and blacky black doom, so maybe it's hard to tell.
Transistors don't give a damn
This is the disconnect. While what seems like a fairly large subset of the fanbase saw wholesale collapse in the Wisconsin game, computers saw two units failing immensely and an offense that put up 442 yards on a defense that gave up 321 on average, scored 31-ish points (computers will credit the offense with acquiring the field position for the field goal and deduct the miss from the special teams; if they deduct from the garbage TD they will use a lower denominator when trying to figure out expected points) on a defense that gave up 21. Statistically, Michigan's offense was at least a standard deviation above the mean against the Badgers.
While the Wisconsin game is the biggest outlier between the offense's actual and perceived performance, it's instructive. It is often lumped in with the crap from last year along with Iowa (tenuous case indeed there), MSU, OSU, and the bowl game. There is no reasonable case it should be. This is why statistics are useful, because meat-emotions often overwhelm our capacity for reason.
These are the questions I think we should be asking in our most robotic voices:
What aspects of last year's performance project most strongly to next year's?
There are three reasons for the gap between points and yards: field position, field goal kicking, and turnovers. The latter two combined to see Michigan's redzone scoring rate rank 109th nationally. The first two are almost entirely out of the offense's control. The latter was a huge problem all three years under Rodriguez. However, turnovers notoriously do not correlate year to year, are heavily dependent on quarterback, experience and saw Rich Rodriguez consistently in the black at West Virginia.
Michigan's turnover issues aren't fate, should improve naturally, and are not related to the spread. Most of Michigan's other issues at turning yards into points are not really the offense's.
That leaves an inherent flaw in the spread offense as a potential culprit that has the potential to repeat next year. Point in favor: Michigan was even worse in the redzone in 2009, finishing with just 49% of available points. Point against: Auburn and Oregon finished in the top ten last year. Further point against from a Football Outsiders study of the NFL:
We took … 20 overachievers and measured their performances the season after said overachievement; while their DVOA [ed: something value over average, a fancy stat they have designed to smooth out noise.] in the red zone that initial season exceeded their total offensive DVOA by an average of 33.3 percent, in the following season, their DVOA in the red zone exceeded their total DVOA by an average of 1.3 percent. In other words, the teams' performances in the red zone mirrored how they did outside it, implying the overachieving was a fluke.
We also can measure this by using correlation coefficients, a way of measuring the relationship between two variables that results in a number ranging from minus-1 (at which the two variables have an exact inverse relationship) to plus-1 (at which the variables have a perfectly positive relationship). The correlation between a team's performance in the red zone and its overall offensive performance, year to year, is 0.08 -- essentially nil. Teams simply do not exceed their performance in the first 80 yards once they get to the final 20 on a regular basis.
The evidence suggests Michigan's red zone struggles should revert to the mean; the things that made the offense less than the sum of its yards last year are all small sample size outliers.
What's left that does correlate, or at least correlates better? Everything else. On a play by play basis Michigan's offense does well in standard and advanced metrics, and returns ten starters. If they should be better but weren't (because of things that should revert) and can expect similar performance next year (because of all the returning starters), then what should happen is that the expected and actual meet somewhere south of #2 nationally but well within the schwing range.
Is it better to play to Al Borges's strengths or the offense's strengths?
In 2008 this was easy since the offense had no strengths. In 2011 it's a difficult question. Michigan's transition demands that Borges or Denard (and, importantly, the OL) leaves his comfort zone. This is necessarily going to be suboptimal for someone.
The spring game suggests it will be vastly suboptimal for Denard if Borges gets his way, and it seems a lot easier to change playcalls than turn Denard into Jon Navarre. Unfortunately, it's not that easy. The last few years I've documented the ever-evolving Michigan run offense. Rich Rodriguez kept ahead of the curve by constantly adding new wrinkles to the ground game. He was able to do this because of his vast experience with the spread 'n' shred. Al Borges is a smart guy with a lot of experience but his history suggests his inventiveness may be more oriented towards the passing game. If a good chunk of offensive effectiveness is staying ahead of the game, Borges might be able to do that better from a pro-style offense.
But the following is true even in the NFL:
Shotgun formations are generally more efficient than formations with the quarterback under center.
Over the past three seasons, offenses have averaged 5.9 yards per play from Shotgun, but just 5.1 yards per play with the quarterback under center. This wide split exists even if you analyze the data to try to weed out biases like teams using Shotgun more often on third-and-long, or against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter. Shotgun offense is more efficient if you only look at the first half, on every down, and even if you only look at running back carries rather than passes and scrambles.
With an offense outright designed for the shotgun featuring a quarterback whose main asset is his legs, the cutting-edge effect would have to be absurdly important to make the offense more effective from under center.
Does I-form pro-style help you win in ways undefined by conventional statistics?
This is Brady Hoke's theory when he denigrates the zone-heavy spread offense as an impediment to having a good defense. A quick glance at the top defenses in both conventional and fancy measures suggests this is unlikely. TCU, Boise State, and West Virginia were the top three teams in yardage defense. WVU, Missouri, Oklahoma, Auburn, Oregon, and Mississippi State are all in the top ten in defensive FEI. There appears to be little if any problem with having a top defense opposite your spread 'n' shred offense as long as you account for the increased pace of the spread.
Is it worth sacrificing effectiveness down the road for immediate results?
Unknowable, but there's no better way to quickly put the question marks on Brady Hoke's resume to rest than by having a breakout first season.
Extensive Conclusion Section


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The Three AlsRebus brain teasers use words or letters in interesting orientations to represent common phrases.
This teaser contains three rebuses in one. What phrase does each question mark represent?
1.Alex Ferguson (calm)--2mph--IQ 100
2.Al Pacino (angry)--150mph--IQ 100
3.Alec Stewart (calm)--80mph--IQ 150
4.Alexander Alekhine (outraged)--150mph--IQ 100
Alex Ferguson = ?
Alec Stewart = ?
Al Pacino & Alexander Alekhine = ?
HintAlex Ferguson is the coach of Manchester United.
Al Pacino is an actor.
Alec Stewart is a cricketer.
Alexander Alekhine is a chess player.
AnswerAlex Ferguson = Slow Coach
Alex Ferguson is the slow one, and he is a coach, so he's a slow coach.
Alec Stewart = Smart Alec
Alec Stewart has the highest IQ, therefore the smart Alec.
Al Pacino & Alexander Alekhine = The Fast and the Furious
Al Pacino & Alexander Alekhine are the fast ones, and the furious ones (from "angry" and "outraged").
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text:
Epratuzumab Data From Phase IIB EMBLEM™ Study
MORRIS PLAINS, N.J., June 25, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — UCB and Immunomedics Inc. today announced that data for new lupus drug candidate, epratuzumab, were presented at the 9th International Congress on Systemic Lupus Erythematosis in Vancouver, Canada. These data showed that, in patients with moderate to severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), epratuzumab provided clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvements in disease activity. In the second half of 2010, UCB will initiate two Phase III studies of epratuzumab for the treatment of patients with moderate to severe lupus.


text:
Hover to view/zoom, click to enlarge.
5 (6)
Upper: Canvas; Sole: PU
This information is shown as a guide only and not a guarantee.Actual fitting may vary.
Do you think your friend would like to know that DDS has this item? Just fill in the following information and we will let them know!
Fit: Runs small
The shoes were too small for me, so i sold them.
Was this review helpful to you? YES (
I haven't bought new dance sneakers in more than 5 years, so when my last pair finally bit the dust I needed some new ones. I have worn Sansha before and it is a great value for the product. Very comfortable. I did order a size bigger (I wear a 9 in street shoes and ordered a 10) and they fit great.
Age: 30-39
I guess the shoes are pretty true to size, however the fitting chart is wrong. My street shoe size is 6.5. Following the fitting chart, I ordered size 8 and the shoes are way too big. Size 7 probably would have worked for me, since there is no half size. The sneakers look nice, but I can't wear them.
I read so many reviews that said the shoe ran small, so I ordered the 6 for my 5.5 foot. I can wear a 6 in many other shoes so I figured this would work. Sorry, NO! The shoe is soooo big! I'm shocked. Did they do a redesign since everyone said it was small? So disappointed because they are cute and probably comfy if they fit. Love the super contoured arch. Will be seeing if anyone else I know would like them, but otherwise will have to send them back. Bummer
Age: 40-49
I take zumba as cross training for running. These are comfortable. The heel is a little loose but does not rub. I wish they had half sizes as a 7-/12 would have been perfect as these are a bit long but not enough to return. I have only worn them once so I am not able to access durability.
I was thrilled with the appearance and comfort of the shoe, but will exchange it for one size larger. Street shoe is 10M, I ordered the size 12 but need more room in the toe. Can't wait to get the exchange - will use it for ballroom practice.
Electron is not only stylish but very comfortable!!! My street shoes is an 8 - 8.5..... The size 9 is a perfect fit!!!!
Same as Capizio Rock It!!
No need to break them in!! I purchased an extra pair to have on hand! I would definately recommend them to everyone!!!!
I just received these a couple of days ago and already love them!! I usually wear an 8 or 8 1/2 but have an extremely narrow heel so I tried the size 9 based on other reviews. They fit perfectly. I'm amazed at how I can articulate my foot in a sneaker!! And they are very supportive in the arch and since I'm flat footed I need that support. Love the silver and the spin spot on the bottom is just right, no spinning out of control. My knees already have much less stress when wearing these. This was an excellent purchase and I give them my highest recommendation.
I own the Bloch wave shoe and the Sandra salsetta and out of the three this is my favorite. It has a smooth but not slick bottom and it's nice that the bottom is flat, in comparison to the wave which has a weirdly raised spin spot. This works better for my purposes as I am a ballroom dancer and we like our toes on the floor. Very supportive and comfortable, I have planar fasciitis and it's nice to dance for extended time in. They also look the absolute best out of the three pairs. I am a size 8 street and ordered a 9 for a perfect fit.
Age: 19-21
I ordered these as a birthday gift for a good friend. While she was pleased with the shoes, I was quite embarrassed that they did not arrive in a shoe box but rather in a clear bag that was taped shut. This just screamed, "Discount!" and I felt that it made me look like a cheapskate.
Fit: True to size
I love the look of these shoes! After reading reviews, I decided to order a larger size. I wear an 8-8 1/2 street shoe, 8 in bloch jazz shoe, so I ordered a 9. The fit is perfect. The complaint I have, is that I cannot wear them for an extended period because they pinch my foot between the ball and arch. ..right where the sole ends on the ball of the foot and the arch area starts. I take them off for a bit, stretch out my feet, and put them back on. I have extremely high arches, so maybe this is why, but I haven't had this issue in my bloch sneakers. I have taught in these, worked out, and performed on stage, so they do work well and provide a sturdy base.
I just wore these shoes for the first time last night and I already love them. I have not bought dance sneakers in years and I got these for the price and the fun silver sparkles. I wear a 7.5 in regular street shoes so I got the 9 based on the sizing chart. At first they felt a little odd, but I wore them for 4 and half hours teaching and dancing at my studio and they very quickly shaped to my foot. I did not want to take them off! SO Comfy! The bottom is perfact for turns, in fact I can turn better than in my slip-on jazz shoes. I also like the split sole because I can still get a good point and turn out with my foot. I hope they last for a while because I'm very pleased with them!!
Age: 22-29
I ordered regular street size per a review I read. Too small, ordered one size larger, too small, ordered next size, too small.
My street size is 9 - the size 12 fit perfectly.
I am a woman and i wear 36.5 european or 3.5-4 UK size. What size shall order of the following sneaker?
SANSHA "ELECTRON" Dance, Exercise split sole ADULT Sneaker, Trainer spin spot
I have attached the size conversion chart for your use. We recommend you use the fitting instructions listed on the product page as well.- DDS Customer Service (03/25/2016)
Sign in before answering this dancer's questions.
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Our best suggestion would be to check with your local shoe shop that attaches taps to see if it would be possible- DDS Customer Service (11/09/2012)
Not really, solid rubber sole. - Maniac (07/22/2013)
No. It would ruin the integerity of the sole of the shoe. Also there is an air chamber in the heal. - Martita (11/12/2013)
We're sorry this item is currently out of stock and not available for backorder. If you would like to be notified when it is available please provide your e-mail address.


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SOUTHFIELD, Mich. - Residents in a Southfield neighborhood have mixed emotions.
What was once a community church now is a vacant lot and not everyone is happy to hear a Walmart Supercenter is looking to move in.
Some residents in the area worried about the lighting and traffic.
"It's gonna be huge so it just depends on what they're going to do to help the community also," said Pete Flannery, who lives nearby.
Church of St. Bede, which stands on the lot, was not only where Flannery went to church and school but it's also nearly part of his own backyard. While it is overgrown and empty, Flannery thinks a 24-hour Walmart would make the already-busy area busier.
"It's gonna be so congested there in that area. It's one of the worst traffic (areas), you know, at 12 Mile and Southfield, ever," Flannery said.
The Southfield Planning Commission held a public meeting Wednesday night during which they alerted the public that the northwest corner of 12 Mile and Southfield roads could become the future site of the Supercenter. Local businesses already are bracing themselves for the possible new neighbor.
St. Bede Catholic Church, now closed, still stands on the lot
Related: Woman: Former St. Bede school basketball coach molested her when she was student
"Time to time people will change. Of course, due to hard times and money. You know, to save a dollar here or there, people will go other places. But it's about the service that we have here," said Raven Dabish, owner of Vintage Village.
Technically, the church property is in a residential zone. But if City Council approves a commercial rezoning, residents can expect to find more shopping carts in 2014.
"They think they're gonna generate tax money, jobs, revenue for the city, but also gotta think that one big box store will affect dozens and dozens of small stores," said Dabish.
The Planning Commission will go before City Council on Dec. 3. A lot must happen before Walmart can break ground. They have to do a site plan and the rezoning must be approved. Residents may be able to live without the Walmart for a while longer.
The city's planning manager said they are considering not allowing the Walmart to be a 24-hour store.
Copyright 2012 by ClickOnDetroit.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


text:
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Need More Than Just a Room While Away
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Studio Suites Feature a Kitchen That Allows
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As a Guest of Extended Stay America, you
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Linens Throughout Your Stay.
Nearest major airport:
Dulles, VA (IAD-Dulles International Airport)
Hotel Class:
3 stars
All Rights Reserved 2010 - Capitol Reservations


text:
It's the play Florida will remember for the rest of the season and beyond.
Georgia, too.
Down 17-9 but driving with a hair over 2 minutes left, the No. 3 Gators (7-1, 6-1 SEC) appeared to be on the verge of scoring a touchdown that would allow them to go for the tie. But receiver Jordan Reed attempted to hurdle a defender—just as Bulldogs superstar linebacker Jarvis Jones came in from behind.
Strip. Live ball. UGA (7-1, 5-1) with the recovery in the end zone.
Game over.
"We've got a great team, got a great coaching staff, and we were capable of playing this well all year," said Jones, who played as well as any college football player has in any game all season.
"I look forward to us playing this well the rest of the year."
MORE: Box score | Play by play
And that's the question now, or at least one of them: Are the Bulldogs more capable of peaking down the stretch this season than they were a year ago, when they were torn apart by top-ranked LSU in the SEC title game?
At one point, it appeared South Carolina was the SEC East's best hope of taking down this year's No. 1, Alabama.
Then the Gators appeared to be that team.
After the three teams' round-robin, it's Georgia—again—that's left in the best position to represent the division in Atlanta.
No doubt, the Bulldogs have benefited enormously—both years—from not having to face either Alabama or LSU in the regular season. But credit to them for taking advantage, at least so far.
Still on the schedule for UGA: Ole Miss at home and Auburn on the road.
They almost can't mess this thing up.
But it won't represent progress for this division unless they do something different in Atlanta. Not just compete, but win. Beat the Tide or—if LSU picks off Alabama next weekend in Baton Rouge—beat the Tigers.
And—at 12-1, with an SEC title and an ultimate marquee win in December?—head down to Miami for the BCS title game.
That's perhaps the biggest question of all right now: Would a 12-1 SEC champ get to the national championship game if, say, any two of Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame go unbeaten?
We don't know for sure yet. Can't possibly know.
Alabama hopes we won't find out. The rest of the SEC's contenders would love to be able to take their chances with that scenario.


text:
It looked all too real.
Three terrorists in a 30-year-old-plus Chevrolet Impala broke into Naval Amphibious Base Coronado on Wednesday morning after shooting the two men guarding the gate.
They then shot and injured numerous civilians on the property before taking seven people hostage inside a building.
But it was just an exercise meant to bring several local, state and federal agencies together with the military to practice how to respond to an emergency. Exercise Citadel Shield is an annual large-scale, nationwide, anti-terrorism and force protection event that is taking place this week in the region.
Nationally, exercises began Feb. 18. Locally, they started Monday at various locations, Navy spokesman Brian O'Rourke said.
"It's been well organized," said Capt. Gary Mayes, commanding officer of Naval Base Coronado. "Of course, there are some mistakes that are being made, and we're learning from those mistakes. Lessons are being learned as we go. Going forward, we will incorporate what we learn from the exercise into our tactics, techniques and procedures."
Wednesday's exercise lacked the pyrotechnic bells and whistles of past years. Instead of loud and fiery explosions, this year's terrorists simply pointed their fake firearms and shouted, "bang, bang, bang," to start the show.
From there, about a dozen "civilians" fell to the ground simultaneously, simulating being shot, and the terrorists stormed a building on the grounds to take hostages. From time to time, a hostage walked out with a captive and yelled at potential rescuers to stay back.
"It gives all the agencies an opportunity to learn how to work together and speak each other's language in a realistic scenario," O'Rourke said.
Several agencies took part in Wednesday's exercise, including the FBI, San Diego and Coronado police departments, San Diego County Medical Examiner's Office and the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, O'Rourke said.
"The best thing about it is everybody has a different way of doing things," said Lt. Matthew Anderson, security officer at Naval Base Coronado.
"By doing it together, we get to learn how everybody else operates.
"Even though we're all law enforcement, we all have different ways in how we operate. By doing this, we don't have to deal with it during a real-world event."


text:
From an environmentalist who wants to revive extinct species to a software company seeking to design molecules, Marin County is well represented at this week's TED Conference, the annual gathering of elites from the technology industry and creative fields.
Founded in 1984, the conference — the acronym stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design — features 50 speakers from a wide range of fields. Admission to the weeklong event costs a hefty $7,500, but videos of the talks have become a phenomenon online, where they have been streamed hundreds of millions of times.
In a talk Wednesday at the conference in Long Beach, futurist and environmentalist Stewart Brand of Sausalito proposed something previously associated more with the fiction of "Jurassic Park" than with reality — using DNA to bring extinct species back to life.
"Biotechnology is about to liberate conservation, at least a part of conservation, in a pretty spectacular way," he said.
Brand, known for his creation of the Whole Earth Catalog in the 1960s among other projects, said research is underway that could make so-called "de-extinction" possible. The process could help restore habitats that have been destroyed and teach scientists how to prevent more endangered species from becoming extinct, he said.
Describing himself as a "cheerleader" who is encouraging researchers, Brand said scientists are working on a way to use DNA to re-create the passenger pigeon, a bird that became extinct in 1914.
"The result won't be perfect, but it should be perfect enough because nature doesn't do perfect either," he said.
Reviving other species such as the woolly mammoth may one day be possible, he said.
Addressing people who would likely be concerned about interfering with nature, Brand said humans are responsible for much of the extinction that has occurred.
"Humans have made a huge hole in nature in the last 10,000 years," he said. "We have the ability now, and maybe the moral obligation, to repair some of the damage."
Also represented at the conference was Autodesk Inc., the San Rafael-based design software company. The company, which is a conference sponsor, unveiled a new logo and brand emphasizing an expansion beyond its traditional industries such as architecture and engineering into areas such as biotechnology and nanotechnology.
Researcher Skylar Tibbits of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who collaborates with Autodesk, spoke Tuesday about designing self-assembling objects. University of Oregon ecologist Jessica Green is scheduled to speak later about design on a tiny scale.
Both speakers are working with a new Autodesk team focused on applying design concepts such as computer simulation to biotechnology and molecular science, said team leader Carlos Olguin.
Contact Will Jason via email at firstname.lastname@example.com or via Twitter at http://twitter.com/willjason


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'Drury has scored 20 or more goals in each of his first five NHL seasons, but the Sabres are looking for those intangibles — those 27 game-winning goals — that fire in his belly, that ability to be in the right place at the right time. "You don't find many players who have won a Stanley Cup and can still come in and talk to your young players about what a rush it was and tell them about all of the hard work it takes to win in this League," Sabres Coach Lindy Ruff says. "That kind of leadership doesn't come along every day."'
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Do I need a climate controlled storage unit in Tulsa?
The forecast high for Tulsa is 79 degrees today. The record high for today in Tulsa is 96 degrees. High temperatures and humidity can cause mold and mildew to thrive. If you're considering storing items that are susceptible to mold and mildew during this period, consider renting a climate controlled storage unit.
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Colleges and universities located in or nearby Tulsa include University of Tulsa. College students often need storage during summer and winter breaks and can drive prices up during these seasons.
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What's the Self-Storage Capital of the U.S.? Hint: It's Somewhere Over the Rainbow
For years, Wichita, KS, has been called the Air Capital of the World, thanks to its stature as a major hub in the U.S. aircraft-manufacturing industry. Today, Wichita can claim another title: Self-S...Read more.
8 Best Big-City Oktoberfests in the U.S. [Infographic]
You can toast to this: If you're ready to strap on your lederhosen or dirndls and hoist a pint of beer to celebrate Oktoberfest, you don't have to hop a flight to the world's Oktoberfest...
Going It Alone: America's Top 15 Hubs for Solo Entrepreneurs
Fleeing the corporate cubicle farm sounds enticing, especially when you've got a bad case of the "Mondays" or feel like you cannot possibly deal with one more copy-machine paper jam. Actually leavin...Read more.


text:
Reminder on Auto Decals
Office of Public Affairs
12000 Government Center Parkway, Suite 551
Fairfax, VA 22035-0065
Jan. 31, 2003
Reminder on Auto Decals
Fairfax County citizens who recently moved to the county or recently purchased a vehicle must still buy a decal within 60 days of the date of purchase or residency, even though the Board of Supervisors recently approved a new customer service initiative allowing most county residents to receive their decals in the mail along with their tax bills. County residents living within the town limits of Clifton, Herndon and Vienna also need to register their vehicles and file for personal property taxes with Fairfax County, but they must purchase decals or tags from their respective town halls.
Tax payments are due Feb. 15 for vehicles bought in, or moved to, the county after July 1, 2002. If you have not received your bill, call the Department of Tax Administration at 703-222-8234, TTY 703-222-7594. Because Feb. 15 falls on a Saturday this year, payments received (or postmarked) by Feb. 18 will be acceptable.
For more information concerning the purchase of county decals, call the Central Tax Information number at 703-222 8234, TTY 703-222-7594 or send an e-mail to email@example.com. Citizens using a touch tone telephone may also call the county's 24 hour telephone information system at 703-324 INFO (4636) and then press 1, 5, 2, 1, 4. In addition, citizens may obtain tax information by visiting the Department of Tax Administration's page on the county's Web site at www.fairfaxcounty.gov/dta.
The Fairfax County Department of Tax Administration has full service tax
counters open 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, with extended
hours on Thursdays to 6:30 p.m.


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A U.S. plan to ban artificial trans fats in processed foods could hit demand for as much as 15 percent of the nation's edible soyoil, an industry official estimated on Thursday, although analysts saw a limited market impact as use has already fallen sharply.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday proposed banning the fats in foods ranging from cookies to frozen pizza, citing the risk of heart disease. The fat is used to help extend the shelf life or improve the taste or texture of some foods.
The oilseed and food-processing industries have been in the process of phasing out trans fats for several years, reducing consumption of hydrogenated soyoil to around 2 billion pounds, or about 15 percent of total consumption of edible soyoil, said Richard Galloway, a consultant to the United Soybean Board. That's down from 50 percent as recently as 2005, he said.
"At this point, a lot of the impact on the consumption of soybean oil has already occurred," said Anne Frick, senior oilseeds analyst with Jefferies Bache in New York.
Benchmark CBOT December soyoil futures on Thursday settled at 40.74 cents per pound, down 0.40 cent, about 1 percent, paring losses after tumbling in volatile trade to 40.28 cents, the contract's lowest level since Oct. 14. The daily limit in CBOT soyoil futures <0#BO:> is 2.5 cents per pound.
"I don't think this is any shock to the edible oil community. If it were, we'd be down the limit today, not 33 points," said Rich Feltes, vice president of research for R.J. O'Brien.
Joe Davis, a vice president with Futures International in Chicago, estimated that the FDA's proposal, if approved, would remove demand for about 400 million lbs of soyoil.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated soyoil used for food, feed and industrial use (other than biodiesel fuel) in the 2012/13 marketing year ended Sept. 30 at 13.95 billion pounds.
According to the Grocery Manufacturers Association, food manufacturers have voluntarily lowered the amounts of trans fats in their food products by more than 73 percent since 2005. The FDA said the average daily intake of trans fats by Americans fell from 4.6 grams in 2003 to 1 gram in 2012.
Boon for Palm or Canola?
Nonetheless, alternative vegetable oils such as palm oil and canola could see increased demand as replacements for partially hydrogenated soyoil, traders and analysts said.
"Palm oil is the largest globally traded edible oil today, and so I would think you would see substitution into these other edible oils," said David Lehman, the CME Group's managing director of commodity research and product development.
"If there's some restriction that affects soybean oil more so than the other edible oils, then you would probably see substitution in the food manufacturing industry to those other oils," Lehman said.
Such substitution can take time.
"It isn't just a matter of taking out partially hydrogenated soy and plopping in palm oil or high-oleic canola. You might change the flavor profile significantly, and that is something food companies don't like to do," said Galloway.
"Food companies take about two years from the time they are introduced to an alternative ingredient until they can commit to a switchover," Galloway said.
Restaurants also may have to adjust, if trans fats are banned.
"This should be a warning that, if you haven't taken them off the menu, now is the time," said David Maloni, chief commodity analyst at the American Restaurant Association.


text:
Eminem Photo 475x356
Marshall Bruce Mathers III (born October 17, 1972), better known by his stage name Eminem or his alter ego Slim Shady, is an American rapper, record producer, and actor. Eminem quickly gained popularity in 1999 with his major-label debut album, The Slim Shady LP, which won a Grammy Award for Best Rap Album. The following album, The Marshall Mathers LP, became the fastest-selling solo album in United States history. It brought Eminem increased popularity, including his own record label, Shady Records, and brought his group project, D12, to mainstream recognition. As well as being a member of D12, Eminem is also one half of the hip-hop duo Bad Meets Evil (the other member being Royce da 5'9").
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The federal government's weekly report on drought conditions released Thursday showed things in California have gone from bad to worse.
More than 58 percent of the state is now considered to be in an "exceptional" drought, the worst ranking in the weekly Drought Monitor prepared by the National Drought Mitigation Center.
That's up in one week from 36 percent of the state classified as being in exceptional drought.
Last week the Sacramento Valley and most of Northern California were one level lower — extreme drought. Now, only the extreme north and southeast parts of the state escape the worst classification.
"Increasingly," the report states, "drought indicators point to the fact that conditions are not appreciably better in Northern California than in central and southern sections of the state."
The report said the state's 154 reservoirs are "one year's worth" short of water for this time of year, with just 60 percent of the historical amount. In total, there are 17.3 million acre-feet in storage, with the average annual summer drawdown in 2012 and 2013 being 11.5 million acre feet.
Further, California's topsoil moisture reserves "are nearly depleted," the report continues.
The report is more a confirmation of what people here are seeing than a revelation. Lake Oroville is just 36 percent full, 49 percent of the historical average for this time of year. There's 1.26 million acre-feet in storage, while normally there'd be 2.59 million acre-feet.
Shasta Lake is about the same — 35 percent full, 49 percent of normal, with 1.58 million acre-feet in storage.