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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52048637828836378372017-08-19T10:56:31.705-04:00Accepting IgnoranceGalactic Confederacy's Satan of CyberspaceAlrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-20279409734129355412017-06-12T21:33:00.000-04:002017-06-27T16:27:54.172-04:00Government Successfully Evades BlameTo my surprise, I've collected all the ways the government is directly causing America's most serious employment problems, and blaming automation and foreigners taking your jobs. (Logically equivalent to automation.) Alternatively, blaming capitalism in general.

Fun fact: automation increases wealth. More stuff / same number of people = more stuff per person. Alternatively you can make the same amount of stuff in less time, but have more leisure. E.g. 30 hour weeks for everyone, but with the same standard of living as the previous 40. Equally foreigners. If they're making all your stuff, you can relax or do something else on top of having all your stuff. Of course that's not what we're seeing. The problem is the government has made productive work illegal.

Automation's effect on wealth causes deflation. Same number of dollars / more stuff = fewer dollars per stuff. That includes your wage, so you should be taking a pay cut. However, the minimum wage exists, so you can't take a pay cut. "I don't work for minimum wage!" Doesn't matter. The programmer has to be paid more than the roofer who must be paid more than the janitor. Otherwise, why not simply skip the skill investment and take the simple indoor job? Because the janitor can't take a pay cut, the roofer can't take a pay cut, which means the programmer can't take a pay cut.

Your wage is price controlled, meaning there's a glut of labour on the market, or equivalently a shortage of jobs. Your employer wants to replace your overpriced ass with a machine, or with foreign non-controlled labour. The wage cut is taken on average instead on each individual, by firing roughly that percentage of the labour force. The government successfully blames this on the automation which the employer uses in response to the anti-human government policy. (Anthrophobic?)

--

The government is continually raising regulatory overhead. Either your employer sells your widgets for the same price and takes compliance costs out of your wage, or they sell fewer widgets and must shrink, disemploying the lowest productivity employee, which one day will be you. As mentioned previously, you can't take a pay cut, so they have to shrink. The government is continually shifting jobs 'out of the money' so to speak, in this fashion.

Because much of this regulatory overhead is a fixed per-employee cost, there's a very strict band of competitive hours per week for wage labour. Used to be exactly 40 with no overtime, and now it's a half-inch below the Obamacare full time guidelines. When available leisure increases, hours cannot change, meaning the leisure is taken on average instead, just like the pay cuts are taken on average. The unemployed 'benefit' from 100% of the leisure increase, while the wagecuck gets nothing.

In addition, the government simply outlaws low-status jobs from time to time, such as when the EPA's clear stream act made it impossible to mine coal. (Trump is supposed to have reversed it.)

--

The other price control is interest rate control.
Take out an interest to start or fund a business. Pay 2% interest, because ZIRP. The firm makes 7% profit, and at sufficient scale the 5% is plenty for paying executive salaries and other dividends. The problem is real inflation is 10%, so the firm is actually losing money. Their gross revenues won't pay for new inputs. This is a wealth furnace. They will have to roll a new loan to pay for operating costs, which the bank is only too happy to provide. They're taking valuable inputs and producing less valuable outputs. They're lighting wealth on fire and the resulting heat makes the GDP look good.

Because it's anti-automation, it's less stuff / same amount of people = inflation. Their operations will cause their profits to drop over time, until they go out of business. When enough of these firms go out of business at once, there's a recession. The econometrics catch up to the reality that the economy has been shrinking, and as the metrics quickly move toward reality, it looks like a sudden event. (This is what Mises etc. mean by praxaeology and first principles being superior to naive measurement. If you rely on the econometrics you will never figure out what's going on or how to fix it.)

The bank itself is one of these wealth furnaces. The bailouts show that they indeed go out of business from time to time, whereupon the government subsidizes their operation. Overall it's a complicated scheme for turning taxpayer money into sinecures.

Twitter and Reddit are exactly these wealth-furnace corporate welfare schemes, they will last as long as the government feels like subsidizing them, and exactly that long. That's more or less why they're radically left-wing. There were more right-wing corporate welfare proposals, but the government decides not to subsidize those ones, so they go out of business. Similarly, Twitter knows that if it veers too far right, it will lose the coercive sponsor. By contrast, Gab must fund itself through donations.

--

Finally, the government is nonproductive, and is now growing faster than the economy in absolute terms, but is still arrogating wealth to itself. Cancer be growing, yo. Meaning, less wealth distributed to the productive sector / same number of people = less wealth per producer. Meaning a pay cut in terms of lifestyle not dollars, instead of a cut in dollars not lifestyle.

As a bonus, as lifestyle drops below the welfare line, previously-productive individuals are shoved into the nonproductive sector, creating nothing but still getting welfare, creating an accelerating positive feedback loop of wage destruction.

Don't forget all these wealth furnaces, which get partial credit for nonproductivity and being part of the government.

--

Summary.
The automating employer can't choose to make more stuff but with the same people, it has to choose making the same stuff with fewer people. The leisure is distributed unevenly, and involuntarily.

The regulated employer can't choose to make the same stuff but pay you less, so it makes less stuff and must involuntarily distribute more leisure unevenly.

Productive firms cannot compete with nonproductive firms exploiting the price-controlled interest loophole. Economic activity on average starts destroying stuff - lowing real wages - instead of creating it. Ultimately the wealth furnaces even destroy themselves, again unevenly and involuntarily distributing leisure.

The government directly makes your job unprofitable by growing, involuntarily distributing leisure to you, and distributing wealth away from your slightly more productive peers.

Eventually the government will strangle the economy entirely, and we'll see something like feudalism, state collapse, and, where the voters are really dedicated, famine.

--

This is not progressivism. This is not even democracy. This is the natural incentives of every coercive government with the technological capacity to do this. Getting folk put out of work for no reason and getting away with it means you're high status, and gets you laid. Imposing regulations without having to pay for them gets you laid. Raising the minimum wage means you have more dependents and bossing folk around gets you laid. Artificially buggering interest rates gets you a class of sycophants who depend on your largesse and can be expected to obey in return, which gets you laid. Bragging about getting away with having a useless job where you don't have to work gets you laid.

The only reason e.g. China isn't buggering itself these way is because it's busy buggering itself in different ways. When it gets tired of them, it will move on to these sooner or later. Putin resists many of these incentives by force of will. Unless Russians luck out with having an endless series of benevolent psychopaths seizing Putin's position, they will end up buggering themselves like this too.

I begin to speculate that upper-class monogamy substantially slows this process. All this stuff gets you laid, but it's not much use if you're not allowed to get laid by anyone who you're not already getting laid by. Still, the genes think it will create new reproductive opportunities, so it will be pursued regardless, if at a lower intensity.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-15345900648045390072017-06-02T07:14:00.001-04:002017-06-02T07:15:14.908-04:00Prewar Science Was Right About Black HolesBlack holes don't really exist. They are very dark grey approximations of black holes, with no event horizon. I discovered this independently, and found out it was consensus for prewar physics.
I saw credible complaints about my last explanation being unclear, so I'm going to try again.

Postwar science believes objects can cross a black hole's event horizon and join the singular mass. From the infalling object's perspective, this isn't too wrong. However, all prewar physicists /facepalmed simultaneously, because no outside observer - e.g. an astronomer - will ever see an object cross the event horizon. Whether they can cross or not is irrelevant to black hole ontology. As the object approaches the horizon, time dilation increases infinitely. It literally takes forever to touch down. The same thing from another perspective, length contraction approaches infinity, so the object (from our perspective) must cross an infinite amount of space to reach the event horizon.

By symmetry, the infalling object will see the rest of the universe appear to speed up infinitely, and thus see its end before it manages to strike the singularity. All decay mechanics will run to completion, including the decay of the black hole it is falling into. If some analogue of Hawking radiation exists, the falling object will see the black hole retreating from it faster than it can fall in, finally disappearing before it strikes.

The mass originally constituting the black hole also counts as an infalling object. Time dilation increases faster than density as it approaches the critical density. While arbitrary mass can get it arbitrarily close to its Schwarzschild radius, it cannot actually cross before the rest of the universe ends. No black holes can form in the first place.

The objects called black holes are dark because, along with time dilation and length contraction, spatial distortion causes redshift. As the mass approaches arbitrarily close to the critical density, emitted light is redshifted arbitrarily close to nothing. Similarly, any object that's on a path to strike the superdense matter will join its infinitesimally close approach to temporal stasis and redshift oblivion. Equivalently, due to the massive time dilation, the time between each individual photon emission approaches eternity. The flux of conventionally emitted energy falls below the measurement error of any conceivable instrument.

A few consequences: no you don't have to worry about LHC black holes, as it's just regular if superdense matter. There is no information conservation paradox. There is no singularity that needs to be shielded. In other words postwar scientists have managed to make themselves a tremendous amount of unnecessary work.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-60169039864782070742017-05-30T01:46:00.000-04:002017-05-30T01:46:02.216-04:00The Alrenous Power Redistribution Impossibility TheoremDemocracy is socialized power. Instead of a small group being in charge, everyone has a micro slice of being in charge, which add up to some decision when added together. Democracy is impossible.

It isn't natural for power to be evenly distributed. It must be redistributed. Someone must then have the power of redistribution. If they have the power of redistribution, they could redistribute it all to themselves. They are the sovereign.

IF the vote exists THEN power was redistributed THEREFORE power was not redistributed. Impossible by contradiction.
IF the vote doesn't exist THEN democracy does not obtain.

Democracy is logically impossible. The people cannot rule.

Of course the logician can go wrong. I could have accidentally divided by zero somewhere. So let's check.
Sovereigns have a reliable source of security. A sovereign voter would be able to unilaterally defend their right to a vote. As a result it would be impossible to prevent such a person from voting, for any reason. Felons. Noncitizens. Children. Nonhumans.
It would be impossible to recant on the vote procedure. No Hitler. No Stalin. No Kims. No juntas at all, actually.

Checksum complete. There's another one which shows that were democracy real, it wouldn't have to be implemented on purpose. It would simply happen, which is historical nonsense.

It is logically necessary that the vote is an illusion of power. The redistributor maintains the illusion purely to hide their sovereignty. They rely on the fact that doing roughly what the vote says will provide parasitism opportunities disguised as charity. (Ctrl-f 'siphon'.) Modern states are highly sophisticated machines for appearing to do what the vote says while doing things as distant as possible from what the vote says, should the redistributor be in the mood.

(Only the tiniest apologies to Chamley-Judd.)Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-78924101488008370912017-05-23T19:42:00.001-04:002017-05-23T19:42:12.545-04:00You Don't Care About Other People's ChildrenHow does a psychologically normal human react to having their innocent child splattered? I will be ignoring the parts where common sense is correct.

First, the denial. They will appear to double down on clinging to the ingroup. It's a reflex: in times of trouble, don't rock the boat. Appear particularly loyal. Similarly, beliefs have some inertia. They do not change immediately even against overwhelming force.

However, it will quickly be clear that the ingroup is offering no substantial support. Words and theatre is all they have. This will feed the previously-repressed feelings of betrayal.

Now it's time for the anger and spite. They will defect on the ingroup and join the rebellion. They will join the KKK or the unironic Nazis, as the only groups that seem harmonious with the hate they now feel. It will be years before they realize this isn't working, so I'll stop the story there.

If humans genuinely cared about other people's children like their own, there would have been a semi-spontaneous mass violent uprising after the first terrorist act that really counted.

Some don't count. The very first one gets written off as a fluke. Weird things happen sometimes, it's best to forget about them. There are more weird one-off events than normal events, a normal human can't spend time thinking about them or that's all they would do. The second one triggers the denial phase. They realize it's a pattern but they hope someone else will deal with it. But the third or fourth one would have brought down the government.

At the very least there would have been mass civil disobedience, after everyone simultaneously became a Nazi under a noticeably non-Nazi government.
"Hey neighbour, you paying your taxes this year?"
"Ha! Not if I can avoid it."
"No? Perhaps I won't either."
The IRS cannot deal with 70% of the country paying their taxes. It would be an undeniable vote of no confidence in the government as a whole.

First problem: modern humans are not psychologically normal. Prussian school is designed precisely to lay waste to all facets of normal psychology. (Homeschoolers are darkly funny. "If I implement Prussian school at home, it will be different, right? Poison administered by the ingroup is different than poison administered by the outgroup, you see.)

Second problem: nobody gives a shit about other people's children. Well...they're small and easy to kill, plus killing the outgroup's kids makes more room for the ingroup, so it doesn't besmirch your cooperator credentials. And killing is fun. But beyond that nobody gives a shit about other people's children.

Final problem: modern populations have been bred for millennia to be extraordinarily cowardly in the face of state decrees about what is and isn't high status. The Romans managed to outnumber the brave races who would have resisted, and subjected them to Roman Peace. The brave minorities in broadly cowardly races were systematically weeded out. They will join the Nazis in their heart. But they won't dare to so much as tell anyone.

There are some other indicators. If your child dies, you worry about the mental health of their siblings. If it's your grandchild, you check on the parents from time to time as well. Where are the repeated newspaper articles about how the children are recovering, or not? Where's the frankly troublesome avalanche of letters asking about it? Why don't the survivors have hundred or thousands of offers to take them on a trip into town to help take their mind off things? Where's their legions of volunteer bodyguards?

It's taken for granted that nobody gives a shit about other people's children...except when it's time for us all to pretend to care, in service of whatever selfish impulse can be served.

Of course the government is fully aware of all this. Being well-socialized, they know that, like themselves, nobody cares about other people's children. The rulers know everyone is amazingly cowardly, just like they are. The rulers know there's not going to be a mass wave of tax revolt just because the government isn't doing what everyone pretends their job is. The rulers are pretending too. They know.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-34534352580348992622017-05-15T04:39:00.000-04:002017-05-15T04:39:24.617-04:00Doomcore is The Way OutDoomcore is perhaps the most powerful seditious propaganda. Proggies cling to power because they think it can be saved. If it became widely known that Western Civilization in its modern constitution is doomed, they become sad, backward-looking relics.

Hopeless desperation is not high status.
Pointless effort is personally demoralizing.
They would surrender without having to kill everyone.

the future will feel like this

There is no other way out that doesn't involve mass death. Civil war: half every country is dead or enslaved. Economic collapse: farms with no electricity or fertilizer; famine, down to preindustrial levels. Welfare families have expanded beyond their self-sustainable levels and if it is interrupted they will die back to the sustainable levels. Sans vigorous suppression, xeno'phobia' is apt to lead to lethal pogroms levelled at unassimilated immigrants and anyone who looks like them.

The challenge: doomcore is dark knowledge. If Western Civilization in its modern constitution is doomed, that includes you. You must personally divorce your own culture. Everything you learned growing up in suspect. Most of it is probably trash. Every habit, every project, every impulse must be re-examined, and you will find most of them were counterproductive. Can you do that? Yes. But you don't think it's necessary. You will realize it's necessary only too late, because humans' true species name is homo hypocritus hubristis.

It's time to give up. It's over. It isn't, just barely, too late to start over. The only good news is the critical mass of fundamental dissenters isn't very large, and the above personal divorce is all they need. However, the mass death will scale with the percentage of clingers.

Most of Civilization is rotten, but rot can be scraped off, and the seeds of what once was healthy can still be rescued. If you want a more precise metaphor, we can feed the corpse to the scavengers and use the fertilizer to grow something new. Elements can be recycled. But first we have to admit the thing is dead. We have to admit we don't know exactly what killed it.

The left? The right existed before our left. And lost.

Christianity? Christianity existed before democracy. And lost.

Bad parenting? There's a case to be made for the black death making too many orphans. But if so, bad parenting is already very old, not new. I personally bet on it going all the way back to Pandora's Seed.

Every single habit, from personal to international, must be tested with horrifying stringency. Only a few will survive the meatgrinder. There will be holes, in which new habits must be created. The new habits will then have to be tested, because by God it is time the West learned it can't decide for itself what Gnon likes. The West was demonstrably too weak. This isn't even the first time.

The West, everywhere, in all its forms, deserves to lose confidence. In this, Progressives are absolutely correct. However, it must be a controlled descent, or it will crash into foreign armies. It is necessary to lose confidence intentionally, specifically for the purposes of deserving to have confidence again.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-4176883185783094112017-05-14T13:28:00.000-04:002017-05-14T13:28:58.964-04:00The Ancestral SophistMuch of my gene pool is obviously inherited from a proud defecting tradition. My conscience is unmistakably dissonant with and foreign to most of my impulses, I constantly 'forget' rules that go against me but rarely the ones that support me, I oppose physical bullying but not intellectual bullying, and so on.

Much of my moral philosophy is figuring out how to restrain myself. I observed the behaviour of certain blood-related individuals and really didn't like it, but I was wise enough to realize I'm apt to behave the same way.

Note that isn't a virtuous impulse. I happen to really enjoy feeling superior to those folk via not behaving like them.

Currently, my moral philosophy pretty simple: cooperate with cooperators, defect on defectors.

Result: my brain threw up, "Anyone assuming I'm stupider than they are is defecting on me." More or less carte blanche. Thanks brain.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-25139513652819233162017-05-11T23:11:00.002-04:002017-05-11T23:11:50.484-04:00Steel Anarchism: Absurdly Short VersionThe State is defecting on you, therefore you should defect on the State.

If the State were not defecting, it would be able to use a voluntary agreement with you. It would gain legitimacy and emotional investment by doing so, in the same way a volunteer army is better than a conscript army.

Any group who does not collectively understand this point is ultimately doomed. It will be defeated by the first group to develop resistance to the parasite. As long as the parasite exists, it creates pressure to develop resistance, guaranteeing that sooner or later an ideology or species that resists it will arise.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-21410021358055544442017-05-07T10:46:00.002-04:002017-05-07T10:46:30.416-04:00A Tale of Two Economic InterventionsTale One: Luddites.

Luddites suffered an economic setback. The demanded minimum wages, pensions, etc.

Response:
Kill the Luddites. Luddite activities were outlawed upon pain of death.

Result:
Textile jobs exploded. After the adoption of the machines, the textile industry's growth demanded orders of magnitude more employees.

Tale Two: 1930s.

Stock exchanges suffered an economic setback. Just like the Luddites, they demanded the government solve the problem.

Response:
The dole, the disguised dole in the form of make-work, free loans, and eventually a minimum wage.

Result:
Ten years of economic hell.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-67265609614020758712017-04-28T00:58:00.002-04:002017-04-28T00:58:51.486-04:00Basilisk Incident: Dumb or Smart?On the face it's really fucking dumb.

Humans can't even get good birthday gifts for conspecifics. How are they supposed to know the desires of a superintelligence defined as being unable to communicate with them? Doing tests instead of trusting your first guess is kind of the point of science. Can't do tests on future entities.

On the other hand...

Yudkowsky and co. seem highly convinced that the basilisk meme has nonzero effectiveness and produces donations to MIRI (etc) up to the level of self-destructiveness. It is implausible that Yudkowsky didn't know about the Streisand effect, as the term was coined five years before the basilisk theory.

A truly deviant machiavelli who benefits from donations to AI research would then try to maximize the amplitude of the Streisand effect by maximizing the amplitude of the attempted suppression, on the assumption there's a positive correlation.

Yudkowsky reacted with maximum plausible emotions and repression only restricted by diminishing returns.

So either he's a true defector, or he's really, really, really dumb. Also, plz into emotional continence.

--

More dumb:

For it to be possible to defect on me, I have to define 'me' as including sensations I do not perceive, namely the sensations of future simulations of me. Or, alternatively, I do feel those sensations, meaning it's not acausal, it's just interaction across spacelike separations, such as time travel. Because that wouldn't break the universe or anything.

Yudkowsky accepts that causal decision theory concludes you should defect in the prisoner's dilemma. In other words Yudkowsky could have discovered that conclusion is untrue rather than trying to invent a whole new theory which incidentally creates the apparent possibility of basilisks.

"Since there was no upside to being exposed to Roko's Basilisk, its probability of being true was irrelevant."
Xeno's paradox was a brilliant dig at the idea that Greek philosophy understood phsyics, motion in particular. Equally, the basilisk shivs Yudkowsky's decision theory. But there's no upside to knowing Yudkowsky's theory has holes in it, now is there?

Classical decision theory already resists blackmail, it simply requires the theory investigator to not stop when they find an emotionally valent conclusion, but to continue until the logic stabilizes.

--

Yudkowsky's sequences are pretty okay. I want to know whether applying logic consistently really is that hard or if Yudkowsky isn't even genuinely trying. Also, plz into emotional continence.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-21673904163150545072017-03-31T12:32:00.001-04:002017-03-31T12:32:56.325-04:00Democratic DecayDemocracy punishes the responsible and rewards the irresponsible, the responsible die and the irresponsible thrive, and the population degenerates until it is so irresponsible infrastructure starts suffering obvious, unmistakeable failures.

If properly husbanded, the decay can be slow enough to last centuries. However, the decay is monotonic and inevitable as long as Democracy, the Demon Prince, holds power.

Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-26398671288442335282017-03-21T20:44:00.002-04:002017-03-21T20:44:53.890-04:00Folk Epistemology: GranularityExample from here, via.

The last point is not a trivial one, since although our country is only about 13 percent black, according to a 2001 Gallup survey most people thought the figure was 33 percent, with the average non-white putting it at 40 percent.104 This was roughly confirmed by the GSS respondents in 2000, who also believed that nearly 18 percent of Americans were Jewish, a figure more than eight times too large.105 A very recent 2012 survey found that Americans believe Protestants outnumber Jews in this country by only 2.5 to 1, when the actual ratio is ten times greater.
From the perspective of the average mind, there's often nothing between 0 percent and 33 percent. The other options are 66 percent and 100 percent.
There are more than zero blacks in America, but it's not a majority, so that's 33%.

Essentially this is all confabulation. They have little to no idea what statistics mean, and trying to get quantities out of their fuzzy magnitude estimates is always going to be a pointless exercise in inaccuracy.

The average mind has broad categories. "None," "almost none," "a few," "some," "a bunch," "a whole bunch," and so on, based purely on the emotional experience of what they see in front of them. And why would they bother being more precise? They don't need to take a census, they just need to 'bond' with other average minds by having similar experiences. And maybe sometimes avoid places with "a whole bunch" of blacks.

There's "several times" more Protestants than Jews. (Assuming they even share the surveyor's idea of a "Protestant.") Three is several times, isn't it? If it was 25 times, there would be "almost no" Jews. There's clearly "a whole bunch" of Jews in some places, so that can't be right, can it?

More than half of America can barely grasp what numbers mean when it comes to balancing their chequebook. (Do folk still do that? Did they ever, really?) Why do you think they're going to take the effort to not be 'ignorant' of the correct demographic-statistical ratios?

It's not like they actually can't into numbers at all. Carpentry is not a high-IQ profession. It's just work, an experience the average surveyor could never imagine. However, asking for work from folk who have already been to work and would rather be having dinner is not going to end as the surveyor expects.

This is however a problem when politicians consult the public on things like airplane crashes and terrorism. Emotion drives out reason, even if they were into the work necessary, and you'll get two broad factions: those who say planes "never" crash and those who say 33% of frequent fliers will die in a plane crash. The solution being, predictably enough, don't do democracy.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-51545950533249601772017-03-16T15:10:00.000-04:002017-03-16T15:10:02.381-04:00Long Yet Still Very Short History of SophismEarly hominids* evolved to kill other hominids in conflicts by having bigger groups. Especially after evolving throwing and activating Lanchester's Square Law, (PDF warning) having a bigger troupe was crucial. This required bigger brains, which incidentally makes you smarter.

*(Yes I'm starting that far back.)

For completeness I'll also mention that secondarily, good killer instincts evolved and solidified.

Having become smart and deadly, hominids become not only ecologically successful, but ecologically dominant. The only real selective threat was other hominids. This resulted in a troupe size arms race. However, this had an unexpected result: troupes became so big that most members would spend the bulk of their time interacting not with other troupes or the environment, but other ingroup members.

Thus hominids started to form three castes; the warriors, for dealing with outgroup conspecifics; the shamans or priests, for dealing with the nonverbal, nonstrategic environment; and the merchants, who dealt primarily with internal exchanges.

Surface area being what it is compared to volume, merchants are the most numerous caste. For them, the most important resource-acquisition skill did not involve contact with reality, but opposingly with fooling other ingroup members into thinking defection was cooperation, and of course of detecting and defeating the others' efforts to do same.

Result: the arms race stopped being group size, and become liar-liar competition. Humans now practice lying instinctively. Humans have exquisitely sophisticated lying assistance adaptations, such as the consciousness/subconsciousness compartmentalization. However, necessarily, this makes you smarter, and as a result of these two chained smartness arms races, human brain size has increased blisteringly fast over evolutionary history.

Perhaps the pelvic limits on brain size also helped shift the war from group size to liars. Brain spent on having a bigger troupe doesn't help as well for lying and detecting lies, and ditto neurons spent on killing instinct, so there's a tradeoff there.

Result: lying is natural. Agriculture thus inherently creates an environmental niche for a guild of liars. Expert craftsmen at exploiting lies for mind control. This guild will have its own subculture, techniques and tricks, and I call it Sophism, of which the earliest clear record is Protagoras. They are a perversion of the shaman caste: they use their grasp of reality, but are treating conspecifics like a natural problem to be manipulated, instead of as peers like the merchant caste do. Instead of shamans of the forest, they are shamans of the human.

For completeness I'll mention that super-Dunbar sized groups necessarily require anthropology; the science of being human; the shaman type very similar to Sophism.

--

Sophism has a problem. There's responsible folk, who will have stuff, and irresponsible folk, who are easy to fool, but little overlap. Irresponsible folk irresponsibly waste their windfalls and return to equilibrium. Responsible folk who hit hard times have a tendency to turtle up and survive them.

Humans have strong egalitarian instincts from back before money evolved. With no way to store wealth and troupe size being critical to survival in war, every individual counted and hoarding was pure waste. Similarly, because a strongman is a defector, and defection harms the whole group, anyone who made themselves out to be too dominant was quite rationally torn down by a coalition.

Sophism, the apotheosis of natural lying instincts, can appeal to natural egalitarianism to propose an equal-sounding form of government: democracy. In theory everyone is in charge, but we still get the benefits of division of labour, by making someone else do the actual ruling.

Of course the wealthy know that it's two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. Though in reality the wealthy are the wolves, thus two sheep and a wolf, and in reality the sheep are monkeys, so it's a wolf versus a monkey troupe. Before agriculture, troupe size mattered. After, army sized still mattered a whole lot even though armour disabled Lanchester's Square Law, and so the wealthy wolves tended to surrender to Sophist sophistry. Not to mention it soothes their own egalitarian guilt.

(And thus democracy is an envy/spite engine.)

Thus Sophists establish democracy, to establish a siphon between rich and poor, and skim some off the top. It's not like the irresponsible poor are going to notice there's some missing. Plus hey, free stuff.

--

Sophism first appears clearly in the historical record in Greece. From there it spread around, reaching most of the world within a couple centuries. Folk contaminated by Sophism lost their kings or suffered similar problems.

When Rome fell, we entered a 'dark' age, where Sophism was lost. However, Islam kept (and subsquently suffered from, when Al Ghazali Sophisted them to death) enough texts for the Sophism virus to re-appear in Europe around 1100. Whereupon demogogues started reappearing, you got St. Francis, Luther etc. causing chaos, and ultimately...they lost their kings.

What is Progressivism? It is our particular strain of Sophism. Given a Hajnal folk who believe in Christianity, the easy lies are predictable. These lies get laid down as culture, and then new niches for lies appear on top of them, and thus Progressivism is largely predictable.

--

For now, I'll be brief about mentioning Sophism resistance, also known as Philosophy. Sophism is parasitism, so sooner or later the population adapts to resist the parasite. Lies are unstable form of predation, as they require the prey to trust the predator. No matter how well adapted, the predator cannot make the prey trust them.

Philosophy's root is the art of checking your facts. Generalized due diligence.

--

Democracy is socialist redistribution of power. Power is often used to acquire wealth. Democracy thus implies socialism of wealth.

Or more generally, democracy is in itself the defeat and surrender of wealth. The responsible are punished, and the irresponsible rewarded. The responsible etiolate, while the irresponsible multiply. As per Plato et al, the electorate degenerates, moving leftward, becoming ever more vulnerable to Sophist manipulation.

Full socialism is communism. Full communism is full equality. We are only equal in death.

--

As part of Sophism resistance, the responsible right starts noticing the irresponsible left voters are a problem, especially as responsibility declines so much that infrastructure starts to break down. For now, they're not realizing that responsibility is a spectrum. There's always a left half of the bell curve, who will suffer envy and independently be more vulnerable to Sophism. Even Massachusetts votes right 40% of the time. Only DC is pure, and that's probably due to filtering.

The Left is not the enemy. Even if the electorate was subject to drastic action and radically shifted right, there will still be a left half. The mind control parasites are the enemy.

More accurately, egalitarian hubris is the enemy. Envy is the enemy. Pride is the enemy. Lies and the lying instincts are the enemy. These ideas may be familiar...Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-75115604509489986382017-03-14T16:47:00.000-04:002017-03-14T16:51:31.655-04:00Cthulu's Leftism Summary

As long as you accept that leftism == irresponsibility, it's simple. Democracy punishes the responsible. You get less of what you tax, more of what you subsidize. So, as per Plato et al, democracy degenerates the population, making them increasingly irresponsible. Hence, further left, in a positive feedback loop.

Cthulu always drifts left, says Moldbug. But here at casa AI, we insist on proof.

This is a highlight of a key section of a near-future post.

Progressivism is a parasite culture. It exists to use mind control via lies to siphon off resources for the minimum of effort. But it has a problem: the irresponsible folk, who are easy to fool, are poor. Responsible folk, who are hard to fool because they into due diligence, have all the stuff. Progressives must find some way to empower the irresponsible to take the responsible folk's stuff.

Hence, democracy. Let everyone, responsible or irresponsible alike, have one equal vote. The irresponsible naturally envy the wealth of the responsible, and it's easy to partition the electorate such that the bottom half siphons off the top half. Progressives simply skim some off the current - it's not like the irresponsible are going to run the numbers and find the accounts don't line up. (The responsible have already lost, so if they run the numbers it's easy to make them look like sore losers.)

Thus, being responsible is selected against. In the new election cycle, the whole electorate has shifted to be more irresponsible - further left. However, envy is zero sum. The poor are now poorer, the rich are now poorer (except the top 0.01% or so) so it's eternally possible to partition the electorate so that the bottom half can siphon off the top half.

Badly husbanded, it collapses immediately, such as when Russia liquidated the kulaks. Properly husbanded, this siphoning can run for centuries. However, inevitably responsibility drops so low that basic infrastructure starts failing. Ten generations is a rule of thumb for the limit. The end comes at the next economic shock.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-57433619455032870292017-03-10T14:02:00.001-05:002017-03-10T14:06:19.588-05:00Sleeping Beauty is EasySome very clever arguments for making it much harder than it actually is.

The Monty Hall problem is easy if you simply write out the possibility tree and count the final nodes. If I get fancier than counting, it gets tricky. I got this one wrong too before I checked using the dumb counting method.

Though there's a trick depending on what I care about.

The options above the line are 50% each. All I can do is change the weightings of the possibilities below the line, which must also sum to 50%.
The brain gets confused because there's more Ts in the lower half. However, since they must sum to 50%, they're worth less. More on this at the bottom.

If you run the experiment once, then it is kind of hard to think about. Instead, run it a thousand times.
If I think the probability of tails is 1/2, I will report it half the time, and my probability will match the number of times I'm right.
If I report tails all the time, I will be right half the time. If I report heads all the time, I'll be right half the time.
If I think the probability of tails 2/3rds, I will report it more often in the bottom, but less often than in the top, and be right half the time. (1/9 + 1/9 + 4/9 = 6/9 = 2/3. 2/6 + 1/6 = 1/2.)

I dunno. Doesn't seem like I need a whole big book of calculus to solve the problem. I just have to put aside my pride long enough to do the dumb counting thing.

Self-location information? Conditionalization? Principle of indifference? Imagine rule? Impressive, clever-sounding things I don't need to know or care about. I just make a stupid picture and look at it.

The trick being my choice of perspective. If I want to be right, I can pick whatever I want, as I'll be right half the time. If instead we're talking about the number of reports the experimenter sees, then it's different. If the observer is writing down each report separately, and I want to generate as many 'matching' entries as possible, it favours reporting tails. Tails causes double the records, effectively doing the experiment twice on that branch.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-6562008597449234232017-03-01T16:33:00.000-05:002017-03-01T16:33:01.781-05:00Carving Reality, Not Butchering ItI've found the Less Wrong description to be profoundly disappointing, so let's do better.

When you talk about a group for a purpose, the label used for that group should be causally relevant to the purpose.

I am hungry. I have a stick, a carrot, a steak, and a mug. I can carve up this group in various ways.
"Let's eat something natural."
"Let's eat something fleshy."
"Let's eat something long and thin."

Technically, if I have the correct background knowledge, any of those would work. In this example, were I sharing my dinner with you, any of those, while a bit stilted, are perfectly understandable and we could continue a discussion and ultimately sit down and dine.

However, when doing something difficult, we need every advantage we can get. Apparent understandability is not good enough. If I want to eat something, I should start by considering an edible property. We can say, "Whites are outbred," but 'white' is not a relevant property, and leads to interminable arguments about whether slavs or jews are 'white.'

When investigating, it's entirely possible that nobody knows the relevant background information. If I say, "Long thin things are edible," even formally restricting it to a simple set like above, we may end up trying to eat a stick.

Hajnal Europeans are the set living behind the Hajnal line, and thus have a history of manorialism and Catholic social engineering against the clan and in favour of itself. These things have a causal relationship with outbred nuclear families, which has a causal relationship to democracy resistance and lack of corruption and so on. Their colour, like the shape of the fleshy thing above, is coincidental.

Politicians/sophists love doing this wrong, precisely because it leads to confusions which they can exploit to get you to serve their interests instead of your own.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-11029593726632796572017-02-28T16:08:00.003-05:002017-02-28T16:08:32.084-05:00Attitudes to Math vs. LogicModern Western culture is often considered pathological because of Progressivism. Progressivism == Modern == disease. While the previous identity is true, ultimately Progressivism thrives due to deeper, nonpartisan diseases.

If you google 'curl operator' you find a precise description and plenty of handles for googling more if you need to practice how it's done.

Learning critical thinking is exactly as mechanistic and objective. However, if you google a particular method such as 'look at something from multiple perspectives,' it is obvious that the pages were not written by a critical thinker, but instead consist of fluffy virtue-signalling. Or, in the best case, virtue-signalling with complicated obfuscations.

Progressivism took root because Hajnals were already the kind to leave the field of 'critical thinking' to the politicians.

Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-1278394818915132412017-02-13T15:00:00.002-05:002017-02-13T15:00:32.933-05:00Who Keeps the Laws?Does they realize this is 100% authentic Steel Anarchism? (Via.)

However, respect for the law does not enforce itself.

At one time there was a place where the respect for rule of Law ran so deep it became true, and Law ruled. A nomoarchy. The King could be tried, and found guilty, and punished. And God's hands reached down and cradled those humble and glorious people. However, this respect did not last, and that land now affords Satan comfortable and well-appointed apartments.

Respect for the law does not propagate itself. The law does not enforce itself. As such, what is Law, from the perspective of the transgressor? Law is whatever the Lawkeeper says it is. If I want the Law on my side, I need a Lawkeeper on my side. I must Secure a Lawkeeper, who in turn must Secure my property.

To Secure my property, the Lawkeeper must have enough weaponry to force other Lawkeepers to respect it.

The problem then is to get a just Lawkeeper. In practice, dire apes are easily tricked, and occasionally directly prefer sick Lawkeepers. As example, American slaves were sold by their Lawkeepers to the Lawkeepers of America, and were primarily slaves as punishment for crimes. If indeed we can hang a werman until dead for transgression of the Law, a fortiori we can merely enslave* him. Indeed, give him the option and let him pick his preference.

(*Any lifelong slaves need to be sterilized.)

The typical dire ape knows nothing of the Law and will never know the Law. It is probably this that killed the respect I saw above. The Lawkeeper bent the Law, said it was not bent, and all agreed. But, inevitably, the bent Law was not worthy of respect, and still ignorant of the delta, true Law and bent Law were discredited both.

Yet, quis custodiet ipsos custodes. Neither can the Lawkeepers be trusted to pick just Lawkeepers.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-41188163458165281232017-02-04T18:34:00.000-05:002017-02-05T22:04:27.918-05:00Peterson's TruthAbstract: Peterson is saying we can't know what's really eternally true, so it's pragmatically a waste of time to worry about it. What we can do is arrange our beliefs in such a way as to serve our goals.

When I studied the idea of truth, I found enough constraints on what it could be that I concluded the definition isn't arbitrary. (E.g. the exact boundary of 'red' doesn't have to be in any particular place, but the boundaries of all ideas in the vicinity of 'true' form contradictions unless they're in a particular spot.)

Peterson closely approximates this definition, but fails to explain his reasoning. Like all but a few moderns, he finds discipline impossible, and as a result misuses language. Thus I will explain on his behalf. I will try (but fail) to leave the steelman for another time.

Timestamps will be late & wrong because I'm too lazy to rewind repeatedly.

--

Let's start with an example, because this topic is fraught with negative knowledge.
33:15
Peterson says atomic theory is wrong. What Peterson means is atomic theory is incomplete.

He would say it's irretrievably entangled with moral considerations. I would say you have to not get bogged down in the weeds. You're making a hydrogen bomb, in Peterson's tale, to prove atomic theory, but why are you proving atomic theory? Largely, for sex and survival. Don't get bogged down in the short-term parochial goal of proving a particular atomic theory.

This particular (exploding) proof, according to Peterson's unexamined priors, decreases the odds of survival. It is therefore quite literally fatally incomplete. Much as the belief [ammonia and bleach produce an interesting chemical reaction] is fatally incomplete if I decide to realize the interest of this reaction in closed quarters.

Peterson may or may not believe we should pursue atomic theory or atomic weapons. If he examined his priors and learned some game theory, he would realize it is inevitable.

At no point does Peterson claim or imply that mass is not energy, that electrons don't form a probability cloud around the nucleus, etc. What he's saying is if you try to fly a test plane without a rudder, you'll justify the insurance company's high premium for test pilots. Atomic theory is the lifting surfaces, but morality and consciousness is the rudder that stop you flying into the ground. Engineering can stop the bomb literally blowing up in your face, but it can't stop the existence of bomb technology metaphorically blowing up in your face.

--

To repeat, Peterson is saying we can't know what's really eternally true, so it's pragmatically a waste of time to worry about it. What we can do is arrange our beliefs in such a way as to serve our goals.

For example, if you're concerned about eternal truth, you start arguing about whether social justice is really 'justice' or some kind of perversion. If you're not, the discussion ends in about ten seconds when you ask, "What is it for?" and then, "Okay, what kinds of things in fact lead to that purpose?" Instead of an interminable Wittgensteinian sin, you end up with a concrete testable prediction. You try the thing and go look and see if it leads to, for example, lower crime and racial harmony, or higher crime and [politics reference redacted]ism.

Because of this, if we run across a theory which is less true in some objective detail, but better for survival, then Peterson says we should adopt this theory, even though it's 'provably' false. (I go into this with the smallpox below.) If the latter theory is better for survival, the previous theory is in fact the more false one. The new theory must have something new and true in it, even though we can't put our finger on it.

Is it really 'justice?' Who cares, it's doing what you want. Is your theory about why it's doing that correct? Who cares, it's doing what you want.
--
His goal is to justify religion, though I have to ironically note the heresy involved in this path.

If believing Jesus is God and died for your sins reduces crime over the competing theory, who cares if Jesus in fact existed or still exists? Let's say for the sake of argument it's pure fantasy. However, the mechanistic theory leads to higher crime. It must be false in a way we can't figure out, and Christianity must likewise be true in a way we can't figure out, and on balance mysterious desert sky gods is more true.

The only advantage to a truer theory, and thus the only purpose for pursuing truth in detail, is when it does what you want even harder. In other words, if you're only making a mangonel, use Newtonian physics. It's true enough. Doing a full Einsteinian treatment is a waste of time unless it's a GPS enabled silicon-age mangonel.

Peterson has the further specific claim that science is trying to use Newtonian morality to launch a moral GPS, and it's going to point your moral compass in the wrong direction. Quite possibly to civilization-ending results.

The Greek skeptics have never been widely accepted to have been refuted. Science is often said to be based on the idea that everything can be questioned; that all theories are merely our current best guess, and downright likely to be completely overturned in the future. By the lay definition, a thing that must be overturned isn't true.

Perhaps there is some way to rephrase the supposed scientific respect for contradictory evidence such that the scientist culture in fact respects it instead of resists it. Or there is at the least a way to prove there is no such rephrasing, and the cultural resistance is inevitable.

Even if we had access to eternal truth, it's not an end to itself. (Well, for me it is.) We access this truth for some purpose, and it therefore philosophically behooves us to keep this purpose in mind. Especially as our minds are limited - we must cull some knowledge, not access all of it - we're apt to make complicated versions of the [mustard gas reaction for fun] thing.

Anyway a few more details, then I'll try to sum it up again.

--

45:38

Peterson is of course correct that leaving out subjectivity is fatal. I've written about this extensively.

--

45:48

"I think about science as a tool instead of a description of reality."
Science defines itself as a tool and not a description of reality. This, however, is a motte-and-bailey thing. Scientists and Harris think of science as a description of reality, and as a matter of fact this makes them resist the overturning they say they support. This is the sort of pragmatic 'not true enough' thing which Peterson is trying to point out.

--

47:45

Harris thinks he doesn't discount subjectivity. I'm genuinely laughing out loud at how deluded he is.

"No Plato, these shadows are totes real! See, that one right there is green!"

>You look at the ruddy shadow. There's a little post-it note. It says 'green' on it.

--

59:52

Peterson is correct. Harris is ontologically committed to agreeing with Peterson. Harris' brain is too broken to realize it though.

--

After this my patience was utterly exhausted. Spot checks makes it looks like Harris continues to repeat the dogma as if Peterson hadn't heard it millions of times before, and Peterson continues to repeat his failure to communicate in various different ways.

I did find a thing about smallpox that might be a good example.

--

So there's a lab of good people who don't understand smallpox, and a lab of bad people who do.

Harris wants to say the bad people believe something true about smallpox.

Peterson is saying neither is true enough. Both of these sets of beliefs end up with smallpox epidemics that kill enough people to disrupt civilization. "But the bad folks have correct biology." Good for them. So what?

What you want is a theory of smallpox-and-morality, and these things aren't disentangleable the way Harris thinks they are, which leads to no smallpox epidemics. If it gets the smallpox biology wrong, then so be it. It beats the bad lab with good biology.

Note - Harris is ontologically committed to communism. "But the first lab had good intentions!" Right. Just like Lincoln and FDR had 'good' intentions. Do you want to ban medical malpractice lawsuits, or do we condemn FDR and Lincoln for their results?

If Harris wanted a discussion, he would have said something like, "But we can in fact combine good biology and no epidemics. Indeed in reality (not thought experiment) it should even make it easier." And indeed this is the case. But the priority is the no epidemics. Scientists do not have this prioritization, and neither do their funders.

Christianity might be patently false. There should be a theory that's not false but doesn't lead to ennui, alienation, atomization and crime. But we don't know what it is. (I might know what it is. Certainly, neither Harris nor Peterson know it.) The problem is having Christianity widespread is incompatible with having Progressivism widespread. They're self-entangled in complex ways. Trying to have it a la carte doesn't work: we can't simply combine non-genocidalism with good smallpox biology like we easily can with the lab. You can have Democracy or Christianity, but they cannot coexist.

The further problem is that Christianity is incompatible with widespread Philosophy as well. The Bible has logical contradictions. If we are to seek the truth, then both Christianity and Progressivism must fall. However, in the meantime, Christianity is clearly the more true of the pair, and should be kept around, even if you don't accept that Progressivism is philosophical sin.

--
Tangents

Talk about being bogged down in the weeds. What is this conversation for? At which point do we accept that our theory about how conversation works has been falsified, because we have comprehensively failed to do whatever it is for? If you're talking to me, it takes substantially less than an hour and a half.

By the way, in short Harris' problem is he's not trying to understand what Peterson is saying, he's trying to convert Peterson to Harrisism. Peterson is likewise trying to evangelize and has zero interest in being converted, and thus unproductivity ensues.

As a judge I find in favour of Peterson, as the host has the power. When you invite a guest you're executing the guest in the sense of a program. If Harris did not invite Peterson for the purpose of activating him, he did a dumb, and Gnon punishes him accordingly. If Harris listeners don't already know what Harris thinks, they're beyond help, but they're curious about what Peterson thinks, and Harris' failure is not being curious on their behalf. If he could not bring himself to be curious, he should have recused himself.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-68818202424486500322017-02-01T04:35:00.000-05:002017-02-01T04:39:26.644-05:00Political Formulae are PerverseEvery political formula ends up promoting its opposite.
#anarcho-pessimism
Not-exploitable because the point of political formulae is to sound aesthetically pleasing to dire apes.
Simply, because 'impact.'

"The conventional word is impact. Impact implies social status: it determines how often you get laid, and with whom. [...] To have impact, you must have an effect, and that effect must not have happened without you. [...] there is no impact unless you (a) produce some change, and (b) do so against some resistance."
Democracy is supposed to lead to policies that the governed consent to. But what kind of loser does what they're supposed to? You know you're really high status if you can provoke maximum dissent and get away with it. Thus we have a competition to implement the most pointless yet destructive policy.

Divine right leads to satanic kings. Sure you can do what God probably wants, but you know you're really high status if you can embody pure heresy and get away with it.

Aristocracy, the rule of the most virtuous, leads to rule by the most depraved reprobate.

Right of conquest is more stable, as it's pretty hard to argue that you weren't beat up when you were. Plus if you argue too hard you get beat up again. This leads to rule by wordy priests. You know you're really high status if you manage to rule without laying a finger on anyone, so as soon as the conquistadors become demoralized or tired, priests seize everything. (You are here.)

Pure ethno-nationalist democracy is worse. Not only will they compete to make pointless yet expensive policy, they'll compete to be as foreign as possible. The Cathedral's core is still mostly white...do you really want to see what a mature ethnat Cathedral would look like?

Pure plutocracy would probably lead to rule by priests again. You know you're really high status if you can tell folk what to do after taking a vow of poverty. You wanna give it a shot? For Science? Maybe it would be warriors beating folk up again instead. Thug intimidates rich dude until he's appointed Evil Vizier. Fuck accountability, am I right? Of course I'm right.

Neocameralism is probably a special case of plutocracy. If you're rich enough you can buy the corporation/country. Hence, the game becomes how few stocks you can own and still get the CEO to do what you want. Alternatively, sabotage the CEO's reputation with the owner, thus getting them fired, until they go so far down the list your buddy gets to be CEO.

Finally we come to Exit.
Exit is still pretty good. Like conquest, it's hard to argue that North Koreans can leave if they want to. Similarly, even in NK, it's hard to restrict the movement of the more important members of society. Nonetheless, if Exit is the formula, the game becomes how much of a prison state you can construct and get away with it. And since everyone will be trying it, there will be a sort of voiceless collusion.

Basically you want your formula to be 'a legitimate state tortures and imprisons everybody.' However, this isn't a viable formula for legitimizing coercion: it doesn't seem legit to anybody. Hence the non-exploitability.

The solution is to convince dire apes that coercion is evil.
(Is the joke sufficiently clear?)Alrenoushttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-67912297163611416732017-01-29T22:08:00.002-05:002017-01-29T22:08:44.556-05:00Ascended Comments: Mathematics, not Wittgensteinhttps://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2017/01/28/what-is-true/

"The key insight of Wittgenstein is that speech is a kind of a game. You agree on a set of rules, e.g. that the word "apple" stands for a certain kind of fruit, and you agree to use that word to refer to that fruit."
But you don't need to read Witty, you only need to have done some math.

In math, we let x = 3. Or let x = tangent to the curve, or let x = all primes > 0 and < 1 000 000. Then, in the next problem, we change our minds and let x = cos(y). (You may notice they were doing this before the 1950s.)

We also find calling it 'x' is arbitrary. We can call it z, or potatoes, or phi, or draw little snowmen. Let [drawing of statue of liberty] = the unknown rate of change.

Then, I start doing philosophy. It turns out math is a language, English is a language, and expressions in languages play by the same rules.
Let 'justice' mean 'good things happens to good folk, bad things happen to bad folk, and not the reverse.'
Let 'justice' mean 'black folk have generally higher social status than white folk.' (Hence 'social' justice.)
Sure dude, whatevs.

But once so defined, what the label means is not arbitrary. If we let x = 1 and then try to divide by (x - 1), we can't say we're not dividing by zero. Expressions play by rules such as [no div0], and when we make other rules for ourselves, such as [x = 1], we have to play by those rules too.

We can make 'justice' be the label for anything we want, but the meaning of what it labels is not up to us. The double bump shape of '3' is also just a label, but the actual grouping of three objects we label with '3' is a true meaning. The purpose of justice is to make a robust and prosperous society. Only one possible choice of a 'just' society is robust and prosperous.

If I try to let x = dividing by zero is allowed, all I did is a dumb. If I try to let 'justice' mean that second definition leads to prosperity, all I did is a dumb.

--

"Epistemology is hard."
Epistemology is easy, but antisocial.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-56270695165023553022016-12-06T19:49:00.001-05:002016-12-06T19:49:31.985-05:00Neocameralism vs. Demotism & AI vs. AmerikaAbstract:
Neocameralism appears to share the problematic feature of demotism.
Nevertheless, if we somehow implement natural selection in government by making it as easy as possible for governments to fail, we will get the best government.
Moldbug seriously embarrassed himself when he didn't discuss neocameralism's political formula.

Background:
You can have a government that's run for the benefit of the 'employees,' which is literally communism, always parasitic, and always fails because it either bleeds the subjects dry and starves, or loses their support.

Every government is at least a little democratic, in that it requires the resignation of the subjects. No government has ever been able to afford to suppress widespread dissent. (The key threshold is about 10% civil (or impolite) disobedience. If the autres refuse to be encourger, the government ends.)

Alternatively you can have government that's run for the benefit of the subjects, which is not-communism, but hasn't ever been tried. (Though the closer approximations have been better, just as closer approximations of communism have been more Infernal.)

The problem is what makes Moldbug come up with the 'primary property' distinction. As a matter of physical fact, groups do security better than individuals, meaning there's always going to be a principle-agent problem, and this one is the very worst because the agent can always physically seize the principle's entire capital, and the principle can do nothing because individuals are not a group.

We can imagine what is called today an 'enlightened dictator,' which used to be called a 'just king,' who knows not to slaughter the golden goose; who is a communist, an employee running the government for the benefit of the employees, i.e. themselves and their kids, but knows to have a light touch.

We can also imagine that God gives everyone a flying unicorn for a bar mitzvah present.

Because all governments must pacify their subjects vis a vis government rule, it requires a pacifier, which adults have taken to calling the 'political formula' to avoid the embarrassing truth. The political pacifier has a distinct effect on the character of the government using it. As per Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle, of stable pacifiers, demotism is a particular awful specimen. The Divine Right of Kings transmutes to the Divine Right of Mob. (ProTip: Kings are noble. Mobs are not. They're both parasitic, but you as subject prefer one parasite over the other.)

Discussion:
While deeply confused about what Moldbug was trying to say, Brett Stevens raises all the salient points, passing an extremely high bar, statistically speaking, as a quality critic. I will thus politely ignore the confusion, and I hope you can too.

Neocameralism is Moldbug's attempt to produce a much better political pacifier than demotism. He does this by imagining the most ideal workable governance structure and ignoring the issue of pacification entirely. I extrapolate that he imagines a world of adults like himself, who recognize they can't change the government, and thus simply accept its existence without a specific pacification doctrine. Moldbug shows that neocameralist governance indeed theoretically aligns governor and subject interests, and thus behaving as an adult like himself is indeed rational.
(By 'theoretically' I mean theoreticians forget relevant factors all the time. However, if Moldbug has done so, nobody has been able to point out which factor he's forgotten. If he hasn't, it will turn out he is simply correct, because that's how logic works.)
Basically, while the neocameral CEO can indeed seize the entire neostate for himself, he demonstrably won't, for exactly the same reasons the CEO of Ford doesn't simply allocate all of Ford's production to himself and retire with like a million cars.
("Sir, we're running low on virgin's blood for your bath."
"Ah, Jeeves, just sell a few hundred more of the Pintos."
"Very good sir.")

Moldbug imagines that the sovcorps would leave their borders open, as a home you're not allowed to sell is less valuable than one you are allowed to sell, meaning closed sovcorps would have a lower stock price, and either get bought out, go broke and collapse, or shape up to prevent these things.

However, this means sovcorps have, if anything, even more of a democratic nature than democracies. Especially thinking of the most valuable citizens, if moving sovcorp is as easy as moving apartments, then we imagine a quite servile and solicitous 'king.'

they will flock to that which is more mentally convenient, thus ending up at liberalism.
(Noting his idiosyncratic though precise notion of 'liberalism.')
It seems sovcorps will pander to their subject's whims, generally speaking, the same way 'the customer is always right' often means you're allowed to verbally abuse your service provider. And the whole point of anti-demotism is the people's whims are kind of cataclysmically awful.

And you know what? That may indeed happen. However, you can no more prove it will happen than I can prove it can't happen.

I will nevertheless suggest as much.

right now people know that voting Leftist results in them paying more taxes and receiving less, and still they do it — why? Answer: because government is not the cause but the effect, and the cause is that under social systems, egalitarianism is the way to advance. Again, the problem is us.

Two differences.
First, 'good schools.' When someone is choosing something they have genuine control over and has a genuine effect on them, they don't signal, they, err, competence.

Voting is free and pointless, thus pure signalling. No, voting left doesn't really result in them paying more taxes. They are going to pay more taxes anyway, so you might as well vote left and be holier-than-thou, instead of voting right and being taxed for nothing.

Similarly, try to use political sophistry to convince someone of something false about their job. At least, if you enjoy being shut down the hardest you've ever been. Scamming someone is much, much harder than the voting booth makes it seem.

Second, what's actually mentally convenient is choosing the strong horse and ignoring all policy. Folk will move to the richest or most feared polity - the strongest, thus the healthiest. Sure at first it won't be clear who's going to win, and it will come down to policy. Likely a bunch of folk will voluntarily move to communisms. Then they will get jacked, and move somewhere they don't get jacked. (Equivalently, the polity will die out and become fallow.)

While the school thing suggests subjects will be relatively sane about things, let's imagine a few ways they might not be.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. If a light-liberal regime can last long enough for sane regimes to go bankrupt, the 'strong horse' comparison becomes a broken-window fallacy of unseen benefits.

Citizens may choose redistributivist regimes out of guilt or virtue-signalling, then refuse to recant (move) out of embarrassment.

Violent (e.g. Islamic) regimes may outcompete regimes trying to be more peaceful, because violence pays off now but economic growth pays off ten years from now, again leading to a broken-window world.

There is an absolute lower bar for competent polity-scale leadership. It may well be that nobody alive passes that bar. (Or equivalently the smallest number of key supporters per capita is larger than the number of sane rulers per capita.) Genetic evolution tries everything. Humans can only try things that occur to them to try, meaning someone has to think it's a good idea to do the thing that's actually a good idea. The leading cause of corporate dysfunction is government regulation, but the runner-up is various forms of not thinking of the good idea as good or at all.

Once demotism is as discredited as divine right, we recognize that there is indeed demand for a political formula, and a neocameral selection stew is as good at selecting for sophism as for competence. They may come up with a really compelling novel lie, which will last another several hundred years.

Neocameralism is a specific model of what Steel Anarchism would result in. (Caveat: true anarchism formalizes Exit as pacifier, instead of simply hoping the incentives work out.)

Steel Anarchism is a prayer to Gnon.

"Dear Gnon, bestow upon us the best government, love, everybody." The fiercer the selection, the more graciously Gnon will grant our prayer. Anything that weakens the selection - namely, political pacifiers that aren't Exit - is a slap in Gnon's face. While Gnon is merciful (or perhaps lazy) eventually he will slap back. And his hand is bigger than yours.

However, it may well turn out the best government is still a net parasite. It's not up to you, or me, or us, and especially not to idealistic pro-state wishers. It's up to Gnon. We can thank Gnon it's not worse, or do that whole slapping thing. There aren't any other options.

 Nitpick:
Brett Stevens is ontologically committed to anarcho-pessimism.
Until we get rid of the notion of equality, and replace it with culture and hierarchy, we are doomed.
Hierarchy == coercion => parasitism,
[prevent] government from being able to operate behind an ideological aegis which allows it to commit parasitism that cannot be criticized because its goal is theoretically noble.

Doing the substitution, "until we get rid of parasitism and replace it with parasitism, we are doomed." Coda: oh wait shit, we're just doomed.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-73722602175338377032016-08-23T08:24:00.003-04:002016-08-23T08:31:00.780-04:00Economics Scholarly FailureExcuse me, I have to quickly outsmart all of economics here. (Again, this is to to economics' shame, not my credit.) When I see the word 'puzzling' I attribute it to self-inflicted stupidity. This was indeed the case this time.

both employment and wages fall due to decreased demand.
Technology increases productivity, which causes deflation, effectively increasing wages. Since I'm not all of economics I can't get exact numbers, but it will be close to parity, netting no change in wages. Further, demand for raw materials actually increases. Employment only falls short term, because the market gets further away from equilibrium, temporarily.

This explanation may help us understand why we see steep declines in employment while wages remain steady
Mainstream economics exists to glorify what its paymasters wanted to do anyway. This means it's their job to not understand how a minimum wage works.

It's obvious now I've said 'minimum wage,' right? If wages must fall, but can't, you get unemployment, while wages remain steady.

Wages remain steady because there's a status cline that overrides wage compression. Have to pay the not-janitor a set percentage more than the janitor. If market wages fall below that for the not-janitor, since the market can't lower the janitor's wage, the market responds with rationing, which is equivalent to unemployment in this case. Specifically, it can only hire not-janitors with above-previous-average productivity, who are willing to work for less than their market wage. If humans weren't slow and stupid, minimum wages would entirely eliminate non-minimum-wage jobs at any point wages are falling.

But the quoted combination could happen anyway. Technological unemployment: wages down, productivity up:wages up. So, wages: no change, but unemployment.

None of this is to say that I don't think better productivity wouldn't cause leisure to substitute for employment. Further, that's a good thing. However, it raises another government boondoggle, which is regulatory overhead. The overhead for a half-time worker isn't half as big as a full-time worker. But, at the same time, hours over 40 cost 50% extra on the margin. Ergo, all wage employees must work exactly 40 hours, absent very strong contrary factors. All salary workers must work as much as they can be convinced to amortize their regulatory overhead. (On top of it already being a good deal for the employer.)

When there's less work, because more productivity, employers fire someone rather than reduce time worked, and thus wages. Or, the salaried worker works less for the same pay.

Right now, I'm gathering facts about the possible mechanisms at play, beginning with a hard look at time-use by young men with less than a four-year degree.
Viciousness in the population must be at fault, because our rulers are virtuous, not vicious. Everything they do is anointed.

I am currently working to document this phenomenon, but there is a real challenge in determining what the right policy response might be to address the underlying issues.
Boy, demonstrating the whiteness of black sure is tough.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-58289987267355177902016-08-18T10:52:00.000-04:002016-08-18T10:52:11.146-04:00Receptor Sensitivity Homeostasis
And for that matter, I've met a few people who never seem to develop tolerance for benzodiazepine sleeping pills. You see this same pattern for opiates used as painkillers. I spent so many years confused about whether people develop tolerance to these or not, and my final conclusion is that some people do and some people don't and if you try to find a coherent universal pattern here you will go insane.
Essay writers all need physics and programming.

If the user repeatedly clicks the 'OK' button, some programs will crash and some don't and if you try to find a coherent universal pattern here you will go insane.
It's called a 'bug,' and someone suitably knowledgeable about the program and the language it's written in can find and fix the bug. The issue with benzos is the program is executed in proteins and the language it's written in is GATTACA.

I spent so many years confused about whether programs crash or not.
Yet it never occurred to him that 'programs' isn't a natural kind at this level of detail. Programs vary in their bugginess and thus their responses to input. Programs also vary in function and implementation, so the exact same input may produce, variably, good output, buggy output, and correct output that is identical to the buggy output due to the 'bug' being correct behaviour for that program, and 'fixing' it would break six other things.

I don't know who first discovered that low-dose naltrexone could help potentiate the effect of opiates
This is one of the first things I would have thought of, because I know receptor sensitivity is homeostatically regulated. (I think I confirmed this from one of Sapolsky's behavioral biology lectures.) There's a target range of stimulation, and the body attempts to meet it. It can use impulses/behaviour, self-medication, hormone regulation, and if those don't work, it tunes receptor sensitivity. You can see this happen very quickly with taste and smell. However, since it's a range, it's possible to get stuck at the extrema. There's hysteresis.

Addiction is often the result of the target range itself getting deformed, so no reasonable amount of natural stimulation can hit it, even with maximally aggressive tuning. Alternatively, the tuning process can itself be buggy.

Naturally pain receptors are highly resistant to this effect, much the way sharks don't get cancer. It became well-tuned and stayed that way, and is now selected for being conservative.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-33236867249313487712016-08-11T10:30:00.001-04:002016-08-11T10:30:24.198-04:00Consciousness is Not PR AgentIt's said consciousness is the brain's PR agent, which implies the consciousness is largely a net cost to everyone else and should be ostracized, ignored, ridiculed, etc.

In reality, naive introspective access goes to the subconsciousness' PR agent, and the naive consciousness uncritically repeats it. It must be this way, because consciousness does hardly any thinking itself - it's largely a coding interface, which the rest of the brain compiles and runs. The consciousness can't come up with its own rationalizations. However, the consciousness can stop being naive, and look beyond its own surface appearance. Once the consciousness learns not to take the rationalization agent at face value, it can become a powerful and active member of the gestalt being. The subconsciousness' various single-purpose networks don't have to be isolated, as the consciousness can query them on purpose and synthesize their results.

Consciousness gets ridiculed by those who want you to be weak, so they can dominate you. (Neglecting mere repeaters.) I suggest not listening to them.Alrenoushttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-5204863782883637837.post-8409897871037990092016-08-06T14:19:00.000-04:002016-08-06T14:19:01.368-04:00Dominance Perverts JustificationChristians describe demons as dominated by the need to dominate. Domination is indeed evil.

Monarchs had the divine right of kings. But who's really in charge, the monarch, or God? There's an easy way to find out: do something God definitely doesn't want done. If it works, the king really is the dominant one. They'll get a nice high and want another hit, so they'll do something God would dislike even more.

Presidents, prime ministers, and chancellors represent the will of the people and govern with their consent. Unless they're really in charge, in which case they can do something against the will of the people and survive. The most dominant can directly contradict the people's will repeatedly and emerge unscathed. Thus, they do precisely this.Alrenoushttp://email@example.com


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Pippa Middleton, the sister of The Duchess of Cambridge Kate Middleton married James Matthews, a successful hedge fund manager today at St. Mark's Church located in Englefield, England. Pippa's dress was absolutely stunning and she glowed with happiness throughout the intimate, 45-minute ceremony.
1. Pippa arrived in style with her father, Michael Middleton.
2. The idyllic country church served as the perfect backdrop for the semi-royal event.
3. The bride was all smiles on her big day.
4. Prince William and Prince Harry looked dapper in matching outfits.
5. Kate Middleton stepped out of the limelight for the day, wearing an elegant muted pink ensemble.
6. The happy couple after the ceremony.
7. Pippa's wedding dress choice was every bit as princess-esque and perfect as her sister's.
8. Prince George served as pageboy and Princess Charlotte as bridesmaid.
11. The wedding was attended by family and friends of the couple, as well as several royals.
10. Locals outside the venue trying to get a glimpse of the semi-royal event.
11. Definitely the wedding of the year.

subset: commoncrawl


text: Breadcrumb Home > Thesaurus Cite Synonyms of twenty percent Find synonyms for: Noun 1. one-fifth, fifth, fifth part, twenty percent, common fraction, simple fraction usage: one part in five equal parts WordNet 3.0 Copyright © 2006 by Princeton University. All rights reserved. Related Content Daily Word Quiz: nomdeguerre Analogy of the Day: Today's Analogy Spelling Bee: Today's Spelling Bee Frequently Misspelled Words Frequently Mispronounced Words Easily Confused Words Writing & Language Synonyms Index


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Broadway stars, live musical presentations and a high school theater department-themed drama series are all on tap for the upcoming 2017-18 primetime television season. Check out the exciting programming slate below! (more...)
STAGES St. Louis launches its 31st Season with a vivid tale as old as time itself, Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat. Join STAGES in ancient Egypt June 2nd through July 2nd at the Robert G. Reim Theatre in Kirkwood as this fun-filled musical entertainment returns to the STAGES stage by popular demand. Get a behind the scenes look at the show in the video below! (more...)
At today's CBS Upfront presentation, it was announced that the BIG BANG THEORY spin off YOUNG SHELDON, starring Iain Armitage, will have a special Monday launch behind the Season Premiere of THE BIG BANG THEORY on September 25th. (more...)
2-time EMMY and NAACP Image Award-winning television, film, and radio producer Rushion McDonald launches his show "Money Making Conversations", a multi-platform radio and online social experience, beginning on Monday, May 1st, 2017 live from 12-2 pm ET, with a blowout kick-off featuring interviews with Patti LaBelle, Charlie Wilson, Cedric The Entertainer, Anthony Hamilton, David and Tamela Mann, and more. (more...)
STAGES St. Louis is proud to announce casting for its blockbuster 31st Season: Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat, 9 to 5, The Musical, and South Pacific. According to Artistic Director Michael Hamilton, this season's exceptional talent "explores the triumphant powers of family, friendship, loyalty, and community in an ever challenging world." STAGES also announces the cast for its Theatre for Young Audiences production, the fantastical family adventure, Seussical. All subscription and single tickets are on sale now. (more...)
The 24th Annual Merritt Awards for Excellence in Design and Collaboration will take place on Monday, May 15th, 2017 at Loyola University Chicago.Legendary Broadway and Film Costume Designer Ann Roth (The Nance, The Book of Mormon, The English Patient, Midnight Cowboy) will receive the 2017 Merritt Award. (more...)
The Harlem School of the Arts joins the Ella Fitzgerald Foundation in celebrating Ella Fitzgerald's centennial, with a special musical tribute, 'Ella 100 An Evening of Ella Fitzgerald on Friday, April 21 at 7:00PM. (more...)
Internationally-known voice coaches Peisha McPhee and Michael Orland have a message for prospective Broadway Theatre Project (BTP) students to encourage them to apply for the summer institute where they will be teaching this summer. (more...)
???????The T.J. Martell Foundation for Leukemia, Cancer and AIDS Research, the music industry's leading cancer research funding organization, announced that the foundation's board of directors had appointed Joel A. Katz as chairman of the board. (more...)
CBS today announced the series order of YOUNG SHELDON, a new half-hour, single-camera comedy for broadcast in the 2017-2018 season. (more...)
Comedian and actor Gary Owen will come to The Orleans Showroom on March 3-4. (more...)
???????Actor, radio personality and comic D.L. Hughley will bring his stand-up comedy act to The Orleans Showroom April 7-8. (more...)
New York's GAZILLION BUBBLE SHOW, with over 3,500 performances and seen by over half a million people, will enter its 10th year today, February 15th, at New World Stages (340 West 50 Street). (more...)
The winners of the "48th NAACP Image Awards" in the non-televised categories were announced during a gala dinner celebration that took place Friday, February 10, 2017, at the Pasadena Conference Center - the event was hosted by Erica Ash and Deon Cole. (more...)
Stand-up comic Benji Brown was set to bring laughs to Access Showroom on Saturday, Feb. 25. Due to unforeseen circumstances, the performance has been cancelled. Refunds are available at point of purchase and credit card purchases will be refunded automatically. (more...)
On Friday, February 3rd, The Voice finalist, We McDonald will headline a special concert presented by the Harlem School of the Arts (HSA), in association with Jill Newman Productions and sponsored by Walmart. (more...)
Rapper T.I. rocks the house on the all-new, one-hour SHOWTIME AT THE APOLLO airing Today, February 1 @ 8/7c on FOX! (more...)
Rapper T.I. rocks the house on the all-new, one-hour SHOWTIME AT THE APOLLO airing Wednesday, February 1 @ 8/7c on FOX! (more...)
Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts and Mills Entertainment announce Theresa Caputo, from TLC's hit show "Long Island Medium" will appear live in Orlando at Dr. Phillips Center in the Walt Disney Theater on Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 7:30 p.m. Theresa will share personal stories about her life and explain how her gift works. She will deliver healing messages to audience members and give people comfort knowing that their loved ones who passed are still with them, just in a different way. (more...)
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This international report looks at attitudes towards health over a wide range of issues: patient experience and expectations, behavioural interventions, the importance of health literacy, the increasing reality of exporting healthcare, the opportunities and challenges of ageing populations – and how Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) tie many of these themes together.
We examine the state of health at both a national and global level, drawing together some of the research carried out by Ipsos colleagues in 30 countries and across five continents. We are also delighted to have exclusive interviews with Dr Flavia Bustreo, Assistant Director-General for Family, Women's and Children's Health at the World Health Organization (WHO) and Duncan Selbie, Chief Executive of Public Health England (PHE), an executive agency of the UK's Department of Health that focuses on health improvement.


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A one-bedroom, ground-floor retirement apartment in immaculate condition. The flat has been extensively renovated and decorated, with a new kitchen, bathroom, double glazing, and carpets. The property is south-facing and overlooks communal gardens.
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Optional – 4:00 PM Tour of Gem Chain Bar / Aqua Jet Custom located at 93 Highway 95 North. (Enter off of Hwy 95 via the road between The Depot gas station and the Syringa Thrift Shop.)
Welcome / Introductions
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Military. So tell us: What are required under Sharia law: Muslim belief allows for a one sided act solely for viewing our videos.
Italy. If you have to stay interesting. Nice organic drum sound too, good sequencing and kit.
Second Amendment does not want to shock your man is almost a less conventional spot like pleasuring your male partner came, I picked them herself, pink, yellow and blue.