text:
fIRST THINGS FIRST
Although I was only ten years old when the news broke about Diana's death I can still remember where I was and the usual the things they say people remember when they hear tragic news. The thing that stuck with me ever since that morning was what my friends nan said when she broke the news to us.(I was sleeping over at a friends house and his nan burst into our room around 7am to announce "get up boys, Princess Diana is dead, those bastards from the media ran her car off the road" and shut the door, as a ten year old I had no real clue what she was talking about but I knew who Princess Diana was and I understood death and a little part of me was sad, as I think we all were. The truth is now looking back at how the story actually unfolded, the way I had it first described to me was never the way it was actually described, so you could say the version I heard in the very beginning was just a conspiracy theory.. Anyway I digress..
I have been writing and re-writing this particular article for years now and every so often, I stumble across something new and I get the fever all over again, finally after many years I am ready to start to present my own findings and my own opinions about what happened to Diana, before, during and after the night of the 30 going into the morning of the 31st August 1997.
I am going to try and present as much information as I can on one page. I will divide the section below into the official story and the other 'usual' noted alternatives and then carry on below with my own findings. I will try to include as many images and video clips to support my claims to make this not so heavy on the text. There are many different theories put forward by both the mainstream and the sceptic, i will try to cover each and every one of them at some point over the page. This way by the very end of the page the reader will have a very good idea as to what did and didn't happen even if there is no obvious conclusion. " When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sir Arthur Doyle
I have been writing and re-writing this particular article for years now and every so often, I stumble across something new and I get the fever all over again, finally after many years I am ready to start to present my own findings and my own opinions about what happened to Diana, before, during and after the night of the 30 going into the morning of the 31st August 1997.
I am going to try and present as much information as I can on one page. I will divide the section below into the official story and the other 'usual' noted alternatives and then carry on below with my own findings. I will try to include as many images and video clips to support my claims to make this not so heavy on the text. There are many different theories put forward by both the mainstream and the sceptic, i will try to cover each and every one of them at some point over the page. This way by the very end of the page the reader will have a very good idea as to what did and didn't happen even if there is no obvious conclusion. " When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sir Arthur Doyle
Starting at the beginning...
The Early Years
Diana Frances Spencer, was born on July 1, 1961, at Park House near Sandringham, Norfolk. She was the youngest daughter of the then Viscount and Viscountess Althorp, now the late Earl Spencer and the Hon Mrs Shand-Kydd. She had two elder sisters, Jane and Sarah, and a younger brother, Charles.
Marriage, Birth and Divorce.
The wedding took place at St. Paul's Cathedral on a perfect July day. Millions of television viewers around the world were dazzled by the event, with a further 600,000 lining the route from Buckingham Palace to the Cathedral. She was the first Englishwoman to marry an heir to the throne for 300 years.
tHE OFFICIAL VERSION OF EVENTS COURTESY OF THE BBC
One of the last images ever taken of Princess Diana at the Ritz in Paris
Crash reconstructions
How Diana Died: The Conspiracy Files
Tests 'prove' Diana driver drunk
Public doubts over Diana accident
Q&A: What really happened
Timeline: How Diana Died
DoTimeline: How Diana died
Key events leading up to and following the death of Princess Diana in a car crash in Paris.
1300: Dodi Al Fayed - son of Harrods boss Mohamed Al Fayed - and Princess Diana board a private jet at Olbia airport, Sardinia, to take them to Paris, where they plan to stay one night. Diana is due to return to London the next morning.
1520: Mr Al Fayed and the princess arrive at Le Bourget airfield, Paris, and are met by Henri Paul, deputy head of security at the Ritz Hotel. French paparazzi, tipped off by their Sardinian colleagues, also await the couple. Mr Al Fayed is stressed by their presence and tells their driver to lose them.
1635: The couple enter the Ritz.
1800: Mr Al Fayed, accompanied by bodyguards, picks up a ring he has ordered from Repossi's jewellers just outside the Ritz.
1900: The princess and Mr Al Fayed go back to his apartment just off the Champs Elysées. They take the back exit to escape the paparazzi.
1905: Mr Paul leaves the Ritz, telling his colleagues to call him if the couple return to the hotel.
2130: Mr Al Fayed's plans to take the princess for a romantic dinner are ruined as the couple are followed by paparazzi. Mr Al Fayed decides they should return to the Ritz. They are followed by some 30 photographers.
2155: Security at the Ritz call Mr Paul and tell him the couple have returned.
2200: The couple enter the hotel restaurant to dine, but leave after 10 minutes. Princess Diana is reportedly visibly upset over the stress of the day. The couple dine in the Imperial Suite instead.
2201: Mr Paul arrives back at the Ritz in his Austin Cooper. He then joins bodyguards Kez Wingfield and Trever Rees-Jones in the Vendome bar at the Ritz. The three make small talk whilst they wait for Princess Diana and Mr Al Fayed to finish their meal in the Imperial Suite. Mr Paul consumes two Ricard, an aniseed-flavoured pastis.
2300: Mr Paul is seen speaking to paparazzi outside the hotel. According to photographers, he is acting bizarrely and overly jovial, telling the press that the couple will soon depart.
2337: Mr Paul speaks with Mr Al Fayed and Princess Diana in the Imperial Suite. The couple are going to return to Mr Al Fayed's apartment off of the Champs Elysées. Mr Paul exits and tells bodyguards Mr Wingfield and Mr Rees-Jones that a decoy plan has been hatched to escape the paparazzi. The two cars the couple had been using that day, a Mercedes and a Range Rover, are to leave from the front of the hotel with the bodyguards. Princess Diana and Mr Al Fayed will leave from the back in an unmarked car, driven by Mr Paul. Mr Wingfield and Mr Rees-Jones express concern that under this plan there is no protection for the couple. Mr Al Fayed agrees to allow one bodyguard to travel with him and the Princess.
0019: Mr Paul and the couple chat as they wait for their car to be driven to the rear of the Ritz.
0020: The car now ready, Mr Rees-Jones escorts Princess Diana to the waiting Mercedes. She sits on the rear passenger side. Mr Al Fayed joins her on the rear driver's side. Paparazzi take photos of the couple as they enter the car. They depart abruptly, heading toward Place de la Concorde.
The 1997 crash killed Diana, Dodi and their driver
0025: The Mercedes crashes into the 13th pillar of the Alma tunnel, killing Mr Paul and Mr Al Fayed. Mr Rees-Jones and the princess are seriously injured. Photographer Romuald Rat arrives within seconds - he is the first on the scene.
0026: First call to the authorities. Emergency doctor Frédéric Mailliez is driving by when he sees the crashed Mercedes. He is the first doctor on the scene and calls for help.
0028 - 0030: First two police officers arrive. They have difficulty cordoning off the accident from gathering paparazzi.
0032: Fire engine and ambulance arrive. Eight paparazzi are arrested at the accident scene and taken in for questioning.
0125: After nearly an hour, Princess Diana's ambulance leaves for hospital. She has already suffered a cardiac arrest.
0130: Mr Al Fayed is pronounced dead.
0155: Princess Diana's ambulance stops for five minutes to inject adrenaline into her body.
0206: The ambulance arrives at Pitié-Salpétrière Hospital. Doctors note that she has torn her pulmonary vein, a rare condition that begs little chance of survival. She receives open heart massage for nearly two hours.
0400: Princess Diana is declared dead.
0800: Mr Paul's autopsy begins at l'Institut Médico-Légal, carried out by Professor Dominique Lecomte.
1 September, 1997
Mr Paul's blood tests show that he was nearly three times over the French legal drink-drive limit and had a carbon monoxide level of 20.7% when he died. "Drunk as a pig" makes the headline in the Evening Standard the next day.
2 September, 1997
Judges Hervé Stephan and Marie-Christine Devidal appointed to lead French investigation into the crash. Royal Coroner John Burton is expected to hold a British inquest at a later date.
3 September, 1997
Paparazzi called in for questioning.
4 September, 1997
The Royal Family release first public statement since Princess Diana's death.
5 September, 1997
Mohamed Al Fayed's spokesman Michael Cole holds a conference to discuss Mr Paul's behaviour on the night of the accident. He shows Ritz CCTV footage to prove that Mr Paul was neither drunk nor drugged.
Eyewitness Francois Levistre tells The Times that he saw a "flash of light" just before the Mercedes crashed. His testimony will ignite conspiracies that Princess Diana was killed.
6 September, 1997Princess Diana's funeral at Westminster Abbey.
8 September, 1997
Prince Charles pleads to the press to leave his sons, William and Harry, alone.
10 September, 1997
Mr Al Fayed pushes for a second blood test after alleging that the first was possibly contaminated. Judge Stéphan is present and the procedure is photographed. This blood test reveals not only a similar level of alcohol in his blood, it also reveals traces of prescribed drugs: Prozac, to treat depression, and Tiapridal, which counters alcohol dependency.
Blood tests taken from the groin show a lower level of carbon monoxide at 12.8%. But these figures are not released to the public until early 1998, when they spark fresh controversy.
18 September, 1997
Two witnesses, Georges and Sabine D, tell French police that they saw a suspicious car coming out of the Alma tunnel on the night of the accident. "A white Fiat zigzagged as it came out of the tunnel, so much so that it almost hit us," says Georges. "The driver seemed to be perturbed by something in his rear-view mirror. He was transfixed by whatever he was looking at." The car had a big dog in the back, they claim. Based on their recollection of the number plate, they thought the Fiat was most likely from one of two suburbs west of Paris.
19 September, 1997
Sole survivor of the crash, bodyguard Mr Rees-Jones, says he is suffering from amnesia and cannot remember details of the accident.
2 October, 1997
French police announce that forensic tests on the Mercedes confirm that a white Fiat Uno, manufactured between 1983 and 1987, was involved in the accident. White scratches are found on the right side of the Mercedes, and broken taillights were found at the scene of the accident. Police begin the search for the car.
3 October, 1997
Injured bodyguard Mr Rees-Jones is discharged from hospital.
13 November, 1997
French police interview Le Van Thanh, a Vietnamese security guard with a Fiat Uno and three dogs. Although forensic tests confirm that the paint and rubber on his car match the traces found on the Mercedes, the French police rule him out. An official report says his car shows no signs of having been damaged in an accident.
19 December, 1997
Mr Rees-Jones returns to Paris to speak to the French police investigation.
12 February, 1998
Mr Al Fayed claims in the Mirror that the crash was not an accident. He says that his son and Princess Diana were on their way to celebrate their engagement when their car crashed and claims that the Establishment would be "offended" by such news.
Crash was a conspiracy - Al Fayed
13 February, 1998
Private detectives working for Mr Al Fayed claim to have found the "mystery" Fiat Uno. It belongs to paparazzi photographer James Andanson.
20 February, 1998
Michael Cole retires as Mohamed Al Fayed's spokesman.
21 April, 1998
Mr Rees-Jones resigns from Mr Al Fayed's employment.
Diana bodyguard quits job
2 June, 1998
Bodyguard Mr Wingfield resigns from Mohamed Al Fayed's employment.
2 August, 1998
Francois Levistre, who claimed to have seen a motorcycle cut up the Mercedes before it crashed, changes his story. Ignoring his past claims that a "massive" flash that could have blinded Mr Paul, he tells Sunday People that he might have caused the crash that killed the princess by swerving in front of her car.
23 August, 1998
Mr Al Fayed claims in the Sunday Mirror that bodyguards Mr Rees-Jones and Mr Wingfield "caused the crash through their incompetence and unprofessional practice".
28 August, 1998
Richard Tomlinson, a former British spy, is heard by Judge Stéphan at his own request.
30 August, 1998
Mr Tomlinson tells the British tabloid The People of an alleged MI6 plot to kill Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic that included a bright flash and a tunnel. He said that Princess Diana's accident mirrored this plot, suggesting that Mr Paul might have been a secret service agent.
3 September, 1998
William and Harry ask that their mother be allowed to "rest in peace".
23 September, 1998
Mr Rees-Jones registers as a plaintiff against the Ritz for "placing his life in danger".
19 February, 1999
French investigating Judge Stéphan delivers his 6,800-page report to prosecutor Maud Coujard.
2 July, 1999
Paris appeal court throws out a petition by Mr Al Fayed which was critical of Judge Stéphan's investigation.
3 September, 1999
Judge Stéphan's official French report on the crash is published. It concludes that Mr Paul was driving at excessive speed and under the influence of both prescription drugs and alcohol. Judge Stéphan also concludes that none of the photographers arrested after the crash are to be charged with manslaughter.
Also taken from the BBC consider reading the Paget report.
Download below.
tHE USUAL 'CONSPIRACY THEORIES'
To make the burden easier on me, I am going to borrow the following three theories from this source and make my notes below to save typing it all out.
Diana faked her own death...
1. Plot
Fed up with the constant intrusions into her private life by the media, Diana, helped by the huge resources of Dodi, arranges a spectacular 'death' from which she can retreat into blissful isolation. One version of the theory claims that the crash was an attempt at a faked death that went horribly wrong.
2. Evidence
a. Bodyguard Trevor Rees-Jones still lives, but testimony from Mercedes auto experts says that it would have been almost impossible for anyone to have survived a crash in the tunnel in a car going at 121 mph. Maybe, as driver Henri Paul's lawyers claim, the car was not going that fast. Maybe the crash was faked by the army-trained Rees-Jones who had previously deposited Di and Dodi elsewhere.
b. Dodi's usual driver was not used. Mystery still surrounds Henri Paul, the security officer who stepped in at the last minute to drive the Mercedes S-280. It took a full two days for his name to be revealed, for instance. Co-workers at the Ritz Hotel say he kept himself to himself and never socialised with them. One version of this conspiracy has it that Paul simply did not exist, another that he was quickly whisked away from the hospital after being declared dead by doctors in cahoots with the Al Fayed family.
c. Just six hours before she died Di let slip to Daily Mail reporter Richard Kray that she was about to withdraw completely from public life.
Likelihood: 2/10
Parts of it sound feasible but what about Di's two children? It is almost inconceivable that she would want to miss out on the rest of their lives. The chances of her coming back to see them without being noticed are surely slim, though plastic surgery permitting it might be prudent to look out for a similarly built 'nanny' appearing on the scene in the future.
I personally think there is far more credence to the "faked death theory than this gave credit for, for example.
The image above is one of the most famous and widely shared photographs of the night of the 31st. It depicts driver Henri Paul and bodyguard, Trevor Rees-Jones with their faces illuminated whilst in the back ground 'Diana' is turned facing the other way appearing to be watching the oncoming headlights from the back window.
This image has often been widely spread with the tagline that is was taken "seconds before the crash" this is false this is not a picture taken from a car or from a motorcycle whilst the car is driving, it is in fact taken right before the Mercedes pulls away from the Ritz, the car is still stationary.
This is the last true piece of photography evidence of three of occupants. Everything after this which has been released should be treated with caution to say the least, but I will cover that later.
My main reasons for thinking this is more plausible than a mere 2/10 are:
The image example used above has been wrongly labelled and portrayed for almost its entire publication, how much of the other pictures, statements and times given are also falsely reported or mistaken?
There are no images of the car once on the move once it leaves the Ritz,. no CCTV, no paparazzi shots have ever been release, nothing not until after the crash has happened. Once taken place there are many images of the wreckage and immediate crash site, but there are zero images of bodies being removed from the wreckage, alive or dead. There is minimal blood visible and in some photos where blood was visible previously it has disappeared, this is bizarre within itself considered the nature of the crash and there being four occupants all of which suffer serious injuries, 3 being fatal.(I will show evidence of these claims below in my own findings) My point being for all we know the car could have pulled over before the tunnel, Diana and Dodi get out into another vehicle and the Mercedes carries on and either accidentally crashes or crashes exactly as planned. Everything we hear, or read from after those take two photographs are taken is speculation, it requires your trust to be taken as truth, there is no evidence.
In regards to William and Harry and her missing out etc, I don't feel this has to be the case at all, plastic surgery is mentioned, this is very feasible as well as voice coaching and lifestyle change. There would be no reason why her children and now grandchildren could not know where she was and visit her in private, same as this is the age we live in where they could video chat daily, it's not impossible. Could Diana live out of the limelight? If it was the only way he could truly be free and happy. I believe she could.. Moving on...
Did MI6 Kill Her?
The Two Main Theories
a) One or more rogue "cells" in the British secret service construct and carry out a plot to kill Diana.
b) An official campaign by MI6 to assasinate Diana, sanctioned by elements of the establishment.
The Possible Motives
a) The rogue elements in MI5 (National security) or MI6 (International security) decide that Di is a threat to the throne, and therefore the stability of the state. They take her out.
b) With similar motives to the possible rogue elements, the official campaign is driven by a fear of Diana's possible to conversion to Islam (Dodi being a Muslim) and the implication on the Church and State were the two Princes, William and Harry, to follow their mother's lead.
The Evidence
Circumstantial it maybe, but put together is it capable of raising sufficient doubt that this was an accident?
Below are some of the questions and doubts that are raised by the investigation so far
- The rapid disposal of the bodies of Diana and Dodi. Diana had no post mortem prior to burial in Althorp. Victims of sudden death require a post mortem by law in the UK.
- The missing white Fiat Uno: With such a large-scale investigation by French authorities could only secret agents have evaded the police's net around Paris? We know the car hit the Mercedes used by Di and Dodi, thanks to traceable paint marks on the Benz. Witnesses refer to the car lurching around the road at varying speeds as both it and the Merc entered the tunnel of death.
- Henri Paul, driver of the Limo. The mis-information surrounding this key figure is enormous. First he was said to be driving at up to 120 mph, recent reports by professional crash investigators suggest 60 mph, even less on impact.
Was he really drunk? It is accepted that he had two Ricard drinks at the Ritz, but no other evidence has emerged to support this claim, beyond questionable results from a blood test from his corpse. Why questionable? Because it is common for the alcohol level to rise in bodies after death regardless of consumption. The test also showed a very high level of carbon monoxide (20 per cent) in his blood. Experts say this would have incapacitated him before he set off on his fatal journey, and yet the hotel's video evidence shows him walking around and talking normally. An alcoholic? Well , as a pilot, he passed a rigorous health check two days before the accident. His liver showed no signs of abuse on post-mortem.
Then there is the question of the multiple bank accounts Paul held, with balances showing income far in excess of his 20 000 UKP salary as acting head of security at the Ritz. Some friends have suggested he was a long term "sleeper" agent for a secret service agency, almost certainly French intelligence.[I believe that the drunk factor is merely part of the illusion to maintain the general crash theory and is merely media spin. (He displayed no signs of being disorderly on the CCTV leading up the scene, even stopping once to perfectly balance and tie his shoe laces, his ability to drive was not in question here) I also would like to make the statement although as yet I have no proof that these sums of money in bank accounts are 'new life payments' and that if he was working for MI5/6 or french intelligence he wouldn't have scraped to hire a plane only only a month when it was his sole pleasure, he wouldn't brought himself one, these were recent transactions, like payment for one last job or starting a new life...]
- Trevor Rees Jones (Fayed bodyguard)- The only survivor. [Was Trevor the only survivor because he was the only person left in the car?] One time member of Her Majesty's armed forces, rumours suggest he may have been a "sleeper" agent for MI5 or MI6, particularly as the establishment were keen to keep tabs on Mohammed Al Fayed. Why was he the only person in the car to wear a safety-belt? [There is no proof to show that he was the only one wearing a seatbelt. If you look at the image above of Trevor and Henri, it looks as though Trevor isn't wearing his belt and the way in which the image has been cropped would suggest that in fact Henri Paul was.]
- Explosion, followed by Bang- Immediately after the crash news was broadcast, witnesses appeared on US TV saying that they heard an explosion or bang before they heard the car crash. Was this a gunshot, or a bomb?[Never been able to find any true evidence to support this, the background of the two witnesses is very dubious to say the least, wide birth.]
- White Light- Other witnesses describe an extremely bright white light, much stronger than a photographer's flashbulb, illuminating the tunnel before the crash sounds. Powerful anti-personnel flash-guns are available to private citizens for as little as 250 UKP. The security forces have access to much stronger tools. All of which are capable of blinding a victim for several minutes - easily enough to cause a fatal crash. Crucially there would be no physical evidence left for investigators.
- James Hewitt- Former lover of Diana claims he was warned on several occasions by elements of the security forces and a member of the royal family to stop seeing the Princess or his health would suffer! Hewitt has been exposed previously as being very willing to exploit a situation for his own ends, as in the publication of a sleazy book about Diana to which he contributed.[I believe like Al Fayed If Hewitt was releasing any real damning information it would have been cleared up appropriately, the fact that both these individuals have been allowed to speculate and make slanderous accusations tells me they are put there to spread disinformation.]
- Paparazzi- Initially blamed for the crash, most witnesses seem to agree that the bikes were not close enough to the Mercedes in the tunnel to have actually interfered with its progress.
NB These are just a selection of matters which cause concern for investigators. Many other points are raised by the "accident" but for reasons of space are not dealt with here.
[Even the earliest eye-witnesses do not accuse the Paparazzi of any wrong doing, I think the sole reason they were there was to provide testimony and evidence (where appropriate) which would be instantly credible to the general public. Also they would be right on hand to be made the initial scapegoats and take the pressure off the scene and anyone who might be looking into the case from the off.]
Target Dodi
1. Plot
Business enemies of Dodi and his father Mohammed Al Fayed assassinate Dodi, with the death of Di a magnificent cover for their operation.
2. Evidence
Al Fayed has not got to the top without making some serious enemies along the way. The owner of Harrods fought a bitter battle for the top London store some years ago and has also been denied British nationality after question marks were raised about his business practise. His activities have included under the counter payments to Conservative MPs. as his oldest son and heir, Dodi would be an obvious target for anyone wanting to settle a score with Al Fayed.
Likelihood: 1/10
With Di involved, the police operation is likely to be one of the biggest in Paris history so any assassin would be taking one hell of a risk by cutting the break cable, say, of Dodi's car. Then again, the day of the Jackal is a Paris story.[This is true, but at the same time it depends at what level the investigation could be manipulated, I have noticed various significant errors within the crash footage I will analyse further below, however it has seemed apparent that at least some of the images used had been tampered with...]
The next one comes from here
Diana was killed on the orders of the royal family because she was pregnant with a Muslim's child.
This was first suggested by a grieving Mohamed Al Fayed not long after the crash. The retail tycoon, then owner of London's Harrods, was convinced Di was pregnant by his son Dodi. Consequently, the royal family and/or its inner circle was horrified at the idea of Prince William, who is second in line to the British throne after his father and Diana's former husband Prince Charles, having a half-Egyptian and half-Muslim sibling.
Fayed senior told investigators that the crash was a plot by MI6 to kill Diana. Later, in a letter to British authorities, his lawyers claimed that Diana had been pregnant at the time of her death - and was imminently planning to announce her engagement to Dodi. The "Establishment," Fayed charged, "could not accept that an Egyptian Muslim could eventually be the stepfather of the future king of England."
The letter named Prince Philip as the plot's mastermind. (Later, Fayed implicated then-prime-minister Tony Blair, the American CIA and Diana's older sister, among others.) Fayed retained the services of American Senate majority leader George Mitchell (decorated for his role in Northern Ireland peace talks), to make inquiries on his behalf in Washington.
[Many people have written about the statements made over the years by Mohamed Al Fayed and they range from being a concerned parent who will do absolutely anything and everything to appease the loss of his son, to being an intentional interferer used only to muddy the waters further and promote disinformation, to being completely on the money, depending on what you believe. I personally think it's either of the first two, mainly the second one, but he's freely allowed to promote his views, therefore they are of no serious threat to the narrative.]
Searching for the truth...
Above we already looked at the mainstream version of events, including the BBC's official timeline. We also looked at the various other theories which have been often promoted both in the mainstream and on message boards and blog posts for many years. These theories were born out of lack of information/evidence. Bizarre coincidences, things which were overlooked or the just the standard of investigation in general.
Although there has been much said over the last 18 years or so about what might have happened, there was a couple of places, who were really turning up some good information. This thread on the LetsRoll Forums is excellent for starters, it's a real thorough read which will take you a good few days to cover entirely, but it will certainly worth it. The investigation carried out within this thread by 4 or 5 regular and a handful of other contributors will not lead you an answer to what happened, but will rule out many of the possibilities along the way, uncovering links and signals in places you wouldn't have thought to look.
I highly suggest if you find the time to read the investigation on Letsroll in full, it's the best way to understand how I have come to some of the conclusions I have an also a riveting read as the pieces come together. There are three other websites well message boards/forums really I spent a lot of time in whilst researching this topic, but each have their own 'aha' moments which I will mention in due course.
However there are TWO more sources I want you to take a look at, they're important and they cover slightly different theories/aspects of what I now believe happened. Firstly the writings of Chris Spivey but most importantly this piece here. Secondly the blog and documentary create by Saudi researcher Rania Alammar who has presented some excellent research herself about the possible 'kidnapping' of Diana.
I have provided in the Diana Resources page a full set of PDFs of the entire thread from Letsroll, the necessary pieces from Chris Spivey and Rania Alammar's entire investigation for easier access to the information as I feel it is vital to understanding where my line of thought is coming from.
Although there has been much said over the last 18 years or so about what might have happened, there was a couple of places, who were really turning up some good information. This thread on the LetsRoll Forums is excellent for starters, it's a real thorough read which will take you a good few days to cover entirely, but it will certainly worth it. The investigation carried out within this thread by 4 or 5 regular and a handful of other contributors will not lead you an answer to what happened, but will rule out many of the possibilities along the way, uncovering links and signals in places you wouldn't have thought to look.
I highly suggest if you find the time to read the investigation on Letsroll in full, it's the best way to understand how I have come to some of the conclusions I have an also a riveting read as the pieces come together. There are three other websites well message boards/forums really I spent a lot of time in whilst researching this topic, but each have their own 'aha' moments which I will mention in due course.
However there are TWO more sources I want you to take a look at, they're important and they cover slightly different theories/aspects of what I now believe happened. Firstly the writings of Chris Spivey but most importantly this piece here. Secondly the blog and documentary create by Saudi researcher Rania Alammar who has presented some excellent research herself about the possible 'kidnapping' of Diana.
I have provided in the Diana Resources page a full set of PDFs of the entire thread from Letsroll, the necessary pieces from Chris Spivey and Rania Alammar's entire investigation for easier access to the information as I feel it is vital to understanding where my line of thought is coming from.
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Landscape, cityscape and general photography.
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Curious title perhaps but the photos below are of the inside of one of our water tanks at our Schoonspruit/SkoonspruitView full post »
Transit of Venus
When I got home tonight I was hoping to see the transit of Venus but the skies to the west were cloudy and the sun wasView full post »
Daily Photo – Oslo Sculpture
I've no idea what this piece is called, nor who the artist is, nor anything else about the piece. I'd loveView full post »
Daily Photo – Slide
Instead, slides now are plastic tubes. This has the advantage of preventing your precious little one from falling overView full post »
Daily Photo – Grand Rapids Reflections
I've long been fascinated by reflections. I'm like a child seeing itself in a mirror for the first time andView full post »
Daily Photo – Tracks in Barley Field
I took this shot of tractor tracks in a field of barley looking across a valley in the Marlborough Downs of Wiltshire,View full post »


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Thanks to all the wonderful people in Massachusetts for the warm welcome and wonderful stay during my week-long workshop tour. Special thanks to all the workshop participants, Carolyn Markuson, Rolf Erikson, Beth Gallaway, and Vickie Beene-Beavers.
As promised, here are copies of the notes from my teen spaces workshops as well as my alternative collection development for adults and teens.
SEMLS and Metrowest Presentations:
Young Adult Standards: Facilities (Teen Spaces, Cool Places Teen Spaces)
If You Buy It & Market It, They Will Come: Alternative Collections for Libraries
New England Educational Media Association (NEEMA) Presentation:
Teen Participation in Facilities Design
The Ideal Teen Environment: What Teens Need and Want
Beth Gallaway has also posted to the Metrowest blog - Metrowest News
An original and forward-thinking blog by Kimberly Bolan Cullin - Library Evolutionist, Author, Designer
Great times in Massachusetts!
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Steele Memorial Library Project - New Teen Space
The Kimberly Bolan and Associates' team is excited to be working with the Chemung County Library District on the planning and design o...
It's not a secret that I'm a huge fan of face out or "flip-through" shelving for children's libraries. Face out c...
There's been a lot of buzz about several of the "new" topics presented in our latest "Creating a Thriving 21st Century Li...
Since Rob and I have been talking so much about reinventing libraries and our concept of "refreshovating" (rethinking, restructuri...


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Principal's picture
Term three is off and running and the cold weather has certainly arrived. Having spent sixteen days in Vietnam and Cambodia over the holiday break, I am certainly feeling it! Thank you to Bree Chisholm for taking up the role of Acting Principal in my four days of absence.
At the beginning of this term, we welcomed eleven new students to our school. They have all settled in very well and are now a part of the Wandong team. Our enrolments for 2018 are continuing to increase and we have begun our Story-time sessions in the Library for 2018 fourndation students.
Our grade 5/6 tee ball team competed in the divisional finals at Meadow Glen. Well done on your acheivement.
We are currently finalising our school vision statement, with families now providing feedback on the selected options. This school vision will be decided upon over the coming weeks.
Work continues on our school masterplan, with the architect team meeting with staff and students at the end of term two to gauge what's working well and what areas of our school need improving. Over the holiday break, they then developed four design overviews which were presented to the project team in week two. In depth discussions then unpacked each design, looking at the school priorities, how spaces would be interconnected and the order of works to be completed. A community consultation meeting was held on Thursday 27th July to gather additional input from the community. The architect team will now go away with the feedback received and keep tweaking the design. Once the project team is happy with the big picture ideas, the architects will then develop more detailed drawings of how classrooms and outdoor spaces will actually look.
At this stage the external fencing is being replaced, a vegetation audit has been completed and any unsafe trees or vegetation have been removed.
with thanks,
Rhonda Cole (Principal)


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Applied Research & Photonics Receives Nano 50TM Award
Harrisburg, PA – June 01, 2007
Applied Research & Photonics Inc. (ARP), a leader in innovative nanophotonic integrated circuit (nPICÓ) for photonic components, wavelength management, photonic routing, and multifunction photonic chips, announced the introduction of its first terahertz chip to address terahertz spectroscopy and imaging applications. The new product, based on the ARP's proprietary dendrimer based nanophotonic technology platform, will be announced later this year. ARP will be introducing the new products to potential customers at a 2008 Conference.
"A principal barrier to effective use of terahertz (THz) technology in many applications is the available average terahertz power from compact sources. The current state of the art employs conventional cavity mode locked lasers which are expensive and limited in oscillator power. Conventional photoconductive devices produce average pulse train energy on the order of microwatts. For many practical applications, such as inspection and screening, detection of hidden weapons on humans, illicit materials, and biological imaging, the lack of power necessitates long signal acquisition times, and is insufficient to divide among an array for parallel detection or synthetic aperture imaging," says Dr. Anis Rahman, President and Chief Technology Officer of ARP. Dr. Rahman added that "High power is also critical for sub-surface imaging and spectroscopy applications, where the THz beam may suffer considerable attenuation due to absorption and scattering as it propagates through the medium. A relatively high power source in a small form factor that is suitable for the above applications does not exist. The objective of this product is to produce an innovative terahertz source from a dendrimer waveguide technology that is capable of delivering higher output power at room temperature."
The company is also producing amplified wavelength management products from the nPIC technology. Future additions to the nPIC product line include loss-less integrated mux/demux, amplifier, and modulators for 1×N and N×N applications. Anis Rahman added, "I am confident of the market potential for these new devices. The new nPIC product lines fill existing gaps in the market and rapidly capitalize on our proven technology platform. Our terahertz chip and other nPIC products meet urgent customer needs and set new performance benchmarks."
For more information please contact:
Dr. Anis Rahman
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470 Friendship Road, Suite 10
Harrisburg, PA 17111
Phone: 717-220-1003
e-mail: email@example.com
© 2002
Applied Research & Photonics, Inc.


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Weekend Recap
Busy busy week in my neck of the woods, so here is another weekend recap of mostly pictures - enjoy!
Friday morning we began our weekend trek to Chicago. Cubs vs. Phillies was our main event on Friday and Saturday afternoons. You better believe I was decked out in my Phillies gear... but I couldn't let Josh out to dry since he is a big Cubs fan, so I dressed for both teams :)
We asked another couple to tag along, and we all had a blast! Don't mind my hat covering my eyes in this photo.. no clue what I was doing here.
After the game we walked around Chicago and had a beautiful dinner at a French restaurant. So good that I was too concerned with eating and drinking to take any photos. After dinner, we had a few more drinks at a different bar, and enjoyed each other's company.
The next morning we walked to a lovely little place for brunch. The food was soo good. It was a plus that we walked everywhere because we sure enjoyed our meals :)
After brunch, we did a little damage on the Magnificent Mile. Nordstrom Rack, you are welcome for all the money I spend at your store. I saw this shirt, and almost bought it, but my hands were already a little too full of other items :)
It is always a must to do a little bar hopping in Wrigleyville before the games.
We got to witness the Phillies pitch a no hitter against the Cubs on Saturday. This was something I didn't even realize was on my bucket list until I got to see it - so incredible!
We got back home later Saturday night, so Sunday was a slow morning. However, I needed to get my butt in gear and get moving. Josh was going to help his brothers get their new house ready to move into, so I decided to meet him there... by bike. I ended up taking the Monon Trail from our house to theirs - a total of 15 miles. That might sound like a lot, but honestly it was easy, flat riding and I really enjoyed every minute of it.
The weekend ended with a little treat to myself. I have been wanting to get my nose repeirced for a long time now, and just never pulled the trigger. I had my nose pierced for 5 years, and then had it out for about 3 years. Welp, I got it repeirced, and I am SO happy I did! Don't mind the creepy selfie I took of it right afterwards :)
It was another Summer weekend for the books!
7/29/2015 04:56:07 am
Eeek! FUN weekend indeed..You know how to make the most of them. You look AMAZING and can't wait to see the nose ring. I am sure it looks good - just not always sure about those things ;)
Leave a Reply.
January 2017


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Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.
Things You Can't Countersignal
Countersignaling can backfire if your audience doesn't have enough information about you to start with. For some traits, it's especially dangerous, because you're likely to do it for traits you don't have the credibility to countersignal at all based on a misunderstanding of your relation to the general population.
Countersignaling is "showing off by not showing off" - you understate, avoid drawing attention to, or otherwise downplay your communications of and about some valuable trait you have, because a) you are sure you won't be mistaken for someone with very poor characteristics in that area, and b) signaling could make you look like a merely medium-grade specimen. (Actual medium-grade specimens have to signal to distinguish themselves from low-quality ones.) For instance, if you are so obviously high-status that no one could possibly miss it, it may be both unnecessary and counterproductive to signal status, because this would let others conflate you with mid-status people. So you can show up in a t-shirt and jeans instead of formal wear. If you are so obviously brilliant that no one could possibly think you're some crackpot who wandered in off the street, you can afford to rave a little, while people who have to prove their smarts will find it expedient to keep calm and measured in their communication.
In homogeneous communities, or in any situation where you are well-known, countersignaling is effective. Your traits exceeding some minimum threshold is assumed where everyone's traits so exceed, and so failing to signal is unlikely to give anyone the impression that you have somehow managed to be the only person in the room who is deficient. If you're personally acquainted with the people around whom you attempt countersignaling, your previous signals (or other evidence to the effect that you are awesome) will already have accumulated. It's not necessary to further prove yourself. In other words, if your audience's prior for you being medium-or-good is high enough, then your not signaling is evidence in favor of good over medium; if their prior for your being medium-or-low is too high, then your not signaling is instead evidence in favor of low over medium.
But there are some things you can't effectively countersignal.
Or rather, there are some things that you can't effectively countersignal to some people. The most self-deprecating remarks about your positive qualities, spoken to your dear friends who know your most excellent traits like the backs of their own hands, will be interpreted "correctly", no matter what they're about. For instance, when I explained my change in life plans to people who are very familiar with me, I was able to use the phrasing "I'm dropping out of school to join a doomsday cult"1 because I knew this sounded so unlike me that none of them would take it at face value. Alicorn wouldn't really join a doomsday cult; it must be something else! It elicited curiosity, but not contempt for my cult-joining behavior. To more distant acquaintances, I used the less loaded term "nonprofit". I couldn't countersignal my clever life choices to people who didn't have enough knowledge of my clever life choices; so I had to rely on the connotation of "nonprofit" rather than playing with the word "cult" for my amusement.
Similar to close personal connection, people in a homogeneous environment can readily understand one another's countersignals. Someone who has joined the same cult as me isn't going to get the wrong idea if I call it that, even without much historical data about how sensible I generally am in choosing what comes next in my life. But in the wider world where people really do join real cults that really have severely negative features, there's no way to tell me apart from someone who's joined one of those and might start chanting or something any moment. I would not announce that I had joined a cult when explaining to a TSA agent why I was flying across the country.
The trouble is that it's easy to think one's positive traits are so obvious that no one could miss them when really they aren't. You are not as well known as you think you should be. Your countersignals are more opaque than you think they are. If you tell a stranger you've joined a cult, they will probably think you actually joined a cult.
Here's an example at work: in a homogeneous group of white liberals, talking casually about assorted minority races is commonplace if race is going to be discussed at all. Everybody present knows that the group is a homogeneous group of white liberals. Nobody has reason to suspect that anyone in the room has ever been disposed to practice overt racism of any kind, and odds are that no one in the group is well-informed enough about implicit biases to suspect covert racism (even though that's almost certainly present). So people in the group can countersignal their lack of racism to each other with the loose, casual talk, making generalizations when it's convenient. Nobody listening will take them for "real" racists. And being hyper-concerned with political correctness would make one seem concerned with being racist - it would look like one considered oneself to be in some kind of danger, which doesn't speak kindly of how well one is doing to begin with.
But to an outside observer - especially one who is informed about implicit biases, or has personal experiences with how ineffectively people screen off casual attitudes and prevent them from causing bad behavior - feeling that one is in this kind of danger, and speaking carefully to reflect that, is the best-case scenario. To an outside observer, the homogeneous group of white liberals cannot credibly countersignal, because there are too many people who look just like them and talk just like them and don't have the lovely qualities they advertise by acting confidently. In the general population, loose race talk is more likely to accompany racism than non-racism, and non-racism is more likely to accompany political correctness than loose race talk. The outside observer can't separate the speaker from the general population and has to judge them against those priors, not local, fine-tuned priors.
So to sum up, countersignaling is hazardous when your audience can't separate you from the general population via personal acquaintance or context. But often, you aren't as different from the general population as you think (even if your immediate audience, like you, thinks you are). Or, the general population is in poorer shape than you suspect (increasing the prior that you're in a low-quality tier for the quality you might countersignal). Therefore, you should prudentially exercise caution when deciding when to be uncautious about your signals.
1I am visiting the Singularity Institute.
Comments (122)
I wonder to what extent we should apply this idea to our dialogue here.
More than we are inclined to think. This is one of those things where it easy to overestimate how like-minded the group is and so miscallibrate the communication. I've had counter-signals backfire here before, which is one of the reasons I appreciate Alicorn's reminder so much. I would add that you aldo need to consider the potential motivation of the audience and that when online context is fossilized forever.
I could have sworn you were going to make a reference to Ezra Dahlquist and friends, who are mentioned in a nearly identical ritual in Space Cadet. I miss books where one could go to Venus in a nuclear-thermal rocket and have a conversation with the swamp-dwelling natives.
Problem #21 with literary allusions: hash bucket collisions.
Stranger in a Strange Land is fiction. Obviously it's possible to write about the idea of a religious cult that is a great vehicle for rationality, but it's equally possible to write about faster-than-light travel. Do you know of any real-life examples?
My experience suggests that even religious organizations that purport to venerate rationality (Objectivists, the Roman Catholic Church, possibly the Pythagoreans) are less effective at promoting rationality than other kinds of groups. Objectivists ended up being downright insane.
Since when do RC Catholics venerate rationality?
ETA: I have tried and failed to find, through Google, any mention of a special connection between RC belief and rationality. Possibly they accept rationality, but that they venerate it is a much stronger claim. Could someone please give a ref and not just downvote?
You might read G.K. Chesterton's story, "The Blue Cross." (http://www.literaturepage.com/read/chesterton-innocence-of-father-brown-1.html)
Or for just one relevant passage from the story, see http://www.literaturepage.com/read/chesterton-innocence-of-father-brown-17.html.
This sort of attitude is fairly common in the Catholic Church and seems a lot like veneration, although that could depend on your definition.
As far as I can make out, you didn't understand the story.
Anyway this would be more official: http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/encyclicals/documents/hf_jp-ii_enc_15101998_fides-et-ratio_en.html
Of course it's too long to read, and anyway as I said it's a question of interpretation.
Since St. Augustine. One of the core tenets of their faith is that the existence of God can be proven through the use of reason alone, and throughout the centuries they have spent almost as much time as the rabbis arguing about dogma, although with a distinctly different attitude about the need to come to a conclusion.
I said what I did mostly for the entertainment value, so essentially I am not going to defend it. I will say that some religions are more rational than others, open to science and "believe" that their faith is logical. Rational (Maimonidean) Judaism has a lot of these ideas, as did Islam as some points. Christianity had their share of rational people, but if you start with nonsense like trinity you cannot get too far IMO.
When I read this in my google reader I just had to break an electronically enhanced lesswrong.com moratorium to sign on and vote it up. This part I particularly appreciated:
The trouble is that it's easy to think one's positive traits are so obvious that no one could miss them when really they aren't. You are not as well known as you think you should be. Your countersignals are more opaque than you think they are. If you tell a stranger you've joined a cult, they will probably think you actually joined a cult.
Both the leechblock plugin and adding '127.0.0.1 lesswrong.com' to '/etc/hosts' or 'C:\Windows\System32\drivers\etc\hosts' are effective.
The key is that reader.google.com does not make any reliance on the lesswrong.com domain visible to my computer.
For obvious reasons it is the full engagement and commenting that can become a distraction from more directly beneficial goals at times, for similar reasons that tv-tropes so addictive. I take breaks for up to three months at a time but reading the actual posts here still qualifies as time well spent and occasionally justifies logging on.
Now, to return my procastinating energies to hacking out an improved ruby based bash replacement. rush just doesn't have the tab-completion I need to give myself the illusion of smooth productivity.
Now, to return my procastinating energies to hacking out an improved ruby based bash replacement. rush just doesn't have the tab-completion I need to give myself the illusion of smooth productivity.
If you were to include a history of your commands across sessions, and maybe an option to dump all the commands from the current session into a .rb file, I would love you forever.
[puts fingers in ears and starts singing "la la la la la"]¹
You're sure you don't want to rot-13 that?
(EDIT: Actually, I already know ways to break out of a electronically enforced moratorium if I really need to, but still.)
- i.e. I blurred my sight and hit the down arrow until the vote/parent/reply/permalink buttons were at the top of the window.
[puts fingers in ears and starts singing "la la la la la"]¹
One of the problems with this kind of denial is that typically our imaginations---already evidently primed to assume the worst---are capable of coming up with something far worse than reality itself. This seems to be an example of that.
You're sure you don't want to rot-13 that?
Yes. See above and below. There isn't anything that needs to be rot13'd here. Mind you if there was something that needed redaction then I would question your decision to apply thread necromancy to it. A comment from 2010 is a whole lot more obscure than a comment with a child comment singing lalas.
(EDIT: Actually, I already know ways to break out of a electronically enforced moratorium if I really need to, but still.)
The grandparent provides instructions on how to impose a moratorium of the kind discussed in its parent. It doesn't describe how to break out of electronically enforced moratoriums. In fact the instructions for creating the limitation cannot even be (mis)used to reverse engineer a way out of a correctly applied 'leechblock' moratorium. (That would require actual research and effort.)
i.e. I blurred my sight and hit the down arrow until the vote/parent/reply/permalink buttons were at the top of the window.
And somehow still believed you would be able to respond intelligently to the comment that you didn't read. Oops.
Your countersignals are more opaque than you think they are.
Personal example: I like to insult my friends (facetiously, of course), and they're aware of that. But when I'm with people who know my proclivities less well (or not at all), my instinctive reaction is to make the insults more severe, so it's more clear than usual that I'm kidding (i.e., lowering the politeness bar so the audience's prior is more likely to fall in the medium-to-high category). It almost goes without saying that this has backfired more than once.
When incomplete strangers - i.e. not literal complete strangers off the street, but people who've been introduced to me by a mutual friend without having any idea who I am - ask about my cryonics necklace, I often lead with, "It's my contract of immortality with the Cult of the Severed Head".
This seems to work fine.
In fact, I strongly suspect it works better than most other cryonics explainers, because I don't sound the tiniest bit nervous. It helps to understand that most people have no independent grasp on reality. I may post about this at some point.
In any case, this is successful countersignalling performed on very loose acquaintances.
I've found such tactics work even with people who are more or less complete strangers--say, people I've met on pub crawls while I was traveling Europe. Early in a conversation, I'll say things like "I've never had a real job, and I never would have lost my virginity in high school if the slutty girl hadn't joined the math team," and people have told me it's the funniest thing they've ever heard.
It would be a mistake to conclude, on this basis, that countersignaling is a magic pill to make yourself superhigh status. However, Alicorn seems to underestimate its value.
I would love to hear people brainstorm hypotheses about how such countersignaling could work. If countersignaling were as limited as implied by Alicorn and the paper David J Balan points to below, it would be a hell of a lot easier to understand. Some suggestions:
(1) The sort of countersignaling Eliezer and I talk about is tricky, like humor in general. The explanation of what you're doing has to be embedded in the act. Therefore, anyone who does it well must not be a complete idiot, and perhaps feels secure enough to have experimented with countersigaling a fair amount. (2) The most effective signaling with complete strangers may be mixed signaling: straightforward signaling to show you're not a loser (not low status), with countersignaling to show how cool you are (not merely medium status).
Another observation: it seems that countersignaling is iterable. In a room full of ultra-ironic hipsters, or douchebags trying to flaunt their indifference to what people think of them, refraining from such tactics, a sort of counter-counter-signal, may be the strongest status move.
while I was traveling Europe
Now I'm starting to think there are side-of-the-pond differences in this kind of things. IME Americans (especially westerners) do seem to take stuff more seriously than Europeans, though the Americans I've talked to are probably not an unbiased sample.
(2) The most effective signaling with complete strangers may be mixed signaling: straightforward signaling to show you're not a loser (not low status), with countersignaling to show how cool you are (not merely medium status).
See here
Another observation: it seems that countersignaling is iterable. In a room full of ultra-ironic hipsters, or douchebags trying to flaunt their indifference to what people think of them, refraining from such tactics, a sort of counter-counter-signal, may be the strongest status move.
I throw so many "counter-" in that the series stabilizes, and you can't even reliably tell from a picture of me whether or not I was on a fancy dress party. (I forget to stop counter-counter-counter-signalling when I'm in an unfamiliar place, leading to weird stuff such as people mistaking me for a local.)
without having any idea who I am
Even assuming that your friend had never talked to them about you before (which is not guaranteed -- I can't count the times someone I've just met has told me "you're the one who did $thing? my roommate/sister/fellow $town-er/whoever $name [usually a friend or a former classmate of mine] told me about you" -- and I'm not even Eliezer Yudkowsky), they at least know that you're friends with [the person who introduced you], which provides a lower bound on your level of sanity.
Once in a while, shortly after I've been introduced to someone by a mutual friend, I tell them stuff which would make someone I've just cold-approached freak the hell out (I guess -- I have to extrapolate, as I wouldn't even dream of telling someone I've just cold-approached that [redacted], for obvious reasons), and as far as I can tell they react positively.
There is a very nice and closely related paper with the excellent title "Too Cool for School? Signaling and Countersignaling," summarized here:
Somebody I know once conjectured that this story might not work if there were a continuum of types instead of discrete types. I don't know if anyone has ever worked that out.
Two thoughts:
This explains a lot about how different your approach should be when meeting women in different places. What you do has to be different in a bar, at a professional conference, or at a party where you are best friends with the host. What is perfectly normal in a bar is overkill at the party.
You can get away with saying much more controversial things among people who know you well. Eg. You can much more easily talk about possible average genetic differences in IQ with people who know you're not a racist than you can among people who don't know you from squat.
What about being in a group-say a conference, party etc where people have heard of you-assume you've a quality or other that's desirable or attractive- so they never met you but know of you and your exploits/wisdom/whatever?
IMO in that situation even though you don't actually know the people they know of you, and signaling might not be just unproductive but Counter-productive, you'll simply seem arrogant and too full of yourself. for eg. you meet someone, you tell a story about your exploits or share useful knowledge-signal-, they get impressed, you repeat the process every time you see them and they actually get irritated and treat you negatively.. as silly as it sounds, I observed this happening once, and it really puzzled me until I read more on signaling and status games. would you say this was a valid conclusion?
linking this to the main article, couldn't not being able to countersignal certain things-to certain people?- work to your advantage as well? though if mismanaged it could quickly make for potentially awkward social situations.
Irony is a means of simultaneously signalling and countersignalling.
By ironically obeying correct social forms, it is possible to receive status from conventional culture and counter-culture. The conventional culture does not want to admit that it is the butt of irony, and the counterculture likes people who score points off of the conventional culture. Is anyone aware of research into irony as a signalling strategy?
Link is to David Brooks, an elite columnist for an elite paper, chiding "elites". He gets paid for this stuff, and is presumably read in earnest by millions of Americans.
I was once at a very indie film festival which had some very indie bands playing before the films started, and the hot-pink-haired lead singer of one of the bands had a Hannah Montana shirt. To this crowd, that sent an unmistakable message: "Ha ha, why am I wearing this shirt, clearly I'm one of you because there's no way I could be serious about liking Hannah Montana."
On the other hand, it would signal coolness or at least normalcy to certain parts of the "conventional culture" (specifically, young teenage girls who actually do like HM, and older people who think that's a normal sort of thing for them young folks to like, and who don't distinguish much between wildly different subgroups of young folks).
That's the general formula, though usually for it to work specifically as SirBacon described, the relevant subset of "conventional culture" needs to be larger. But when it's not — if you're going around in your Hannah Montana shirt and there are a lot of people who neither take it as non-ironically positive nor are aware of the intended irony, and consequently look down on you — it still works, though in a different way: you get to gain even more status among your indie/hipster friends when you tell them about that stupid mainstream chump who didn't get the joke. (However, getting that kind of response might also feel good for reasons unrelated to status — comparable, perhaps, to internet trolls who relish the angry/disgusted/eye-rolling responses they get from people taking them seriously, even if they are completely solitary and anonymous, leaving them no chance of being lauded by other trolls for their success.)
Saying X="I'm dropping out of school to join a doomsday cult" in a blatantly ironic way gives you the benefits of implying 'to unschooled eyes, it would appear that X - don't be unschooled' along with 'I'm sophisticated enough to be aware that certain aspects my decision look as if X' and 'I'm confident enough about my decision to make light of this', before finally concluding 'but of course, it's not actually true that X'.
Irony signals a lot.
Thanks, that was a interesting read.
There's a bit of a gray area between counter-signaling and feigned self-mockery - for example to counter some not so well though-out ideas "Could you please explain in simple terms, I'm not smart enough for your Powerpoint slides". In that case, the main thing we'd like to signal is probably that the presenter is unclear (or worse); but obviously it depends on some minimum of status as an intelligent person to make this work.
I've seen this kind of veiled attack on a presenter happen a few times; in some cases, only the audience seems to pick up the subtleties.
Being snarky to a presenter is mean, given the stress they're likely under. On the other hand, giving a bad PowerPoint presentation is mean to the whole audience...
One thing I tend to do whenever I have to present something is make all my slides black-text-on-white-background with no decorations. I intend it as something of a countersignal, especially if the norm is to use a fancy company/school/organization-wide template.
One trivial thing that bugs me when people bring up the "KISS principle" is that they invariably say it like: "So just apply the KISS principle... you know... Keep It Simple, Stupid." Seriously, who hasn't heard of that by now?
I rolled my eyes a bit when you posted a link with it, but have to take it back now - I didn't know the original phrase was "keep it simple and stupid." So, in this case, explaining the acronym was actually useful!
That attack signals that you don't have enough status to be direct but have to use a indirect way. Additionally you are wasting the time of your audience with playing status games instead of asking a specific question that demonstrates the problem with the idea of the presenter.
"So to sum up, countersignaling is hazardous when your audience can't separate you from the general population via personal acquaintance or context."
This, like the whole post, is based on the assumption that you want people to know about you. If you want to remain Unknown, then you just don't signal anything, and people can think whatever they like.
Seems to me the racism example doesn't work because it never was countersignaling to begin with.
The idea of countersignaling is that you are so secure in your possession of some high status trait/situation you perspicuosly fail to promote/advertise THAT trait/situation. The racism case isn't countersignaling because your casual behavior doesn't suggest confidence in your actual non-racism (that's largely irrelevant to the consequences of such talk to you) but rather confidence in other people's belief that you are non-racist. However, other people believing you are non-racist isn't actually a high status trait, it's the situation of people believing you have such a trait.
In other words you can countersignal you are smart by not fretting about grades but it doesn't make sense to countersignal that other people think you are smart.
In other words you can countersignal you are smart by not fretting about grades but it doesn't make sense to countersignal that other people think you are smart.
But other people thinking you're smart can potentially give you more influence than you'd get simply by being smart. This is most obvious in politicians, who need to convince others that they're smart / trustworthy / etc. in order to get elected, but also applies more generally.
So is one implication that people who interact with non-representative populations systematically reduce their effectiveness in dealing with outsiders via inappropriate counter-signaling? Seems plausible.
My example is the possibility that advertising has become less effective with time because the advertising specialists have to signal their cleverness to other advertisers (who have seen a lot of advertising and who are very sensitive to it) to get the job. They show this cleverness by making advertisements which are too subtle for the consumer audience to 'get'.
I would be surprised if that wasn't something that was wired in from many generations of dealing with other tribes.
I've noticed a change in my own behavior when around new groups of people. It's weird when it happens, because I'm so used to countersignaling and disliking those that regular signal it bothers me when I catch myself doing it.
As far as the Advertising example goes, I think I disagree. Advertising has become less effective because there is so much more of it. There are advertisements in more places than ever and and consumers are so used to seeing it that it's hard to break through that clutter and grab their attention, especially in terms of the interruptive-based advertising model that is used on TV and in banner advertising online.
What might actually illustrate this point is the reason why advertising can be really horrible. It's not that ad specialist have to signal their cleverness in a way that sabotages the end product by making it too clever, but more that people in the industry are constantly having to justify it's quality to clients and colleagues--so they end up justifying things and approving things that are actually really bad.
Not countersignaling as such, but and interesting related question. If you do a favor for somebody without them knowing, should you tell? On one hand you might feel it's bragging (so NOT telling might be viewed (or confused with) as countersignaling). On the other, there is a an element of social reciprocity that is a communal benefit, and the information contributes to it. Cialdini (in 'Yes!') and the Talmud (do not remember where) specifically say yes, even though Talmud generally places high value on humility.
For instance, when I explained my change in life plans to people who are very familiar with me, I was able to use the phrasing "I'm dropping out of school to join a doomsday cult" because I knew this sounded so unlike me that none of them would take it at face value. Alicorn wouldn't really join a doomsday cult; it must be something else! It elicited curiosity, but not contempt for my cult-joining behavior. To more distant acquaintances, I used the less loaded term "nonprofit". I couldn't countersignal my clever life choices to people who didn't have enough knowledge of my clever life choices; so I had to rely on the connotation of "nonprofit" rather than playing with the word "cult" for my amusement.
I'm not sure this is a very good example. The reason that saying "I'm dropping out of school to join a doomsday cult" works is that people who are really joining a doomsday cult wouldn't say that. Acknowledging that you are aware of the phenomenon of doomsday cults is an effective way of signalling that you are not in fact falling for the recruitment tactics of such a cult and does not require the person you are talking to to know anything much about you personally.
If anything this is a more effective tactic when used on relative strangers who do not know you very well and might think you actually are joining a doomsday cult if you just tried to describe what you are doing in a few short sentences. This seems more like an example of straightforward signalling that you are fully aware of the existence of doomsday cults and so people can assume that you have not in fact been seduced by one.
Well, the way I would put it, someone who's getting a job at McDonalds is exceedingly unlikely to say out of the blue that they're joining a doomsday cult, while someone who's joining a doomsday cult is pretty likely to get told that they're joining a doomsday cult, at one point or the other (or to anticipate such a remark), and thus doesn't have to be uttering something irrelevant out of the blue.
People also tend to blab and joke about things that put them in stressful situations. Joining a doomsday cult, or a cult which is thought by others to be a doomsday cult is something which can put a lot of stress on you. So it's not implausible that someone would say such a thing and mostly mean it.
Back in college, I occasionally used something like "...also, I joined this cult" as a joke on the odd religious inclinations of the people I was hanging out with at the time. (Several of them belonged to various esoteric strains of reconstructionist paganism.)
Probably needless to say, there was no cult, the joke was universally understood as a joke, and I remained atheist.
Tone matters a lot here. "I joined a cult!" [light, smiling] is all but certainly a joke. "I joined a cult" [anger] probably means "fuck off and stop prying into my private life". "I joined a cult?!" [horrified realization] likely points to a group with some unpleasant practices, if not necessarily an actual cult, and an update in the positive direction wouldn't be out of line.
Online, of course, there is no tone, and so we have to go by context. "I joined a cult" in the title of a Reddit AMA means something very different than if you're talking about, say, GameFAQs.
Even there I wouldn't update positively on the words, though my prior would be much higher thanks to the circumstances. People don't use negative-valence words unironically to describe groups they're part of and aren't disgruntled with, and "cult" is very negative-valence; "I joined a cult!" [light, smiling], therefore, strongly signals irony.
The message is "I don't consider this a cult, and I expect you to get the joke". Contra Alicorn, I think it would have worked the same way for just about anyone -- the speaker would have to be cartoonishly clueless for it to be taken at face value.
Well, if someone literally said "I am joining a very cult-like group that I don't consider to be a cult", wouldn't it be much more likely that they are in fact joining a cult than the baseline probability of such? (Which is very low - very small fraction of people are at any moment literally in the process of joining a cult).
It's that this ironic statement acknowledges that the group is very much like a cult or is described as a cult and what they're doing is very much like what a person joining a cult does, but for some reason they don't believe it to be a cult.
In those words? Yes. You may note that those are different words than Alicorn's, or any of mine.
ETA: Wow, got seriously ninjaed there. I'll expand. It's not the "I don't consider this a cult" part of the message that'd make me update away from the surface meaning so much as the "...and I expect you to get the joke" part. That trades on information, even if you don't know it, that the speaker expects you to know. The speaker believes not only that they're not joining a cult but that it's obvious they're not, or at most clear after a moment's thought; otherwise it wouldn't be funny.
Well, if someone ironically says that they are "dropping out of school to join a doomsday cult" (and they are actually dropping out of school to join something), they got to be joining something that has something to do with a doomsday, rather than, say, another school, or a normal job, or the like.
That trades on information, even if you don't know it, that the speaker expects you to know. The speaker believes not only that they're not joining a cult but that it's obvious they're not, or at most clear after a moment's thought; otherwise it wouldn't be funny.
Well, if the speaker got a job at Google or McDonalds, it would be far more obvious that they're not joining a doomsday cult... yet it seems to me that they wouldn't be joking it's a doomsday cult out of the blue then. It's when it is a probable doomsday cult that you try to argue it isn't by hoping that others laugh along with you.
One of my strongest signaling attempts was the language I used in The Wannabe Rational. Was this signaling or countersignaling? I am not up to snuff on the signaling terminology, so this is an attempt at clarification and not an objection to your points.
Another clarification example: If a community used what you know as a status symbol, would it be signaling or countersignaling to ask for an answer you didn't have?
Is there a reason that this post is entitled Things You Can't Countersignal? Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that there are Places You Can't Countersignal? The problem isn't the countersignal. It is the target of the countersignal that causes issues. Or am I wrong?
I think "The Wannabe Rational" signaled humility (rather effectively).
When what you know already is a status symbol, acknowledging genuine ignorance would say nothing good about you at all, although if you have immense local credibility and can disguise the question as a test of someone else's knowledge, asking questions could be a signal (if it looks like you're wielding authority to pass judgment on others' knowledge) or a countersignal (if it looks like you're using your question to poke holes in someone else's position). When wanting to know things is the status symbol, asking any questions that don't indicate you've done next to no homework will tend to signal medium to high status depending on how difficult they are.
Perhaps the title would have been better as "Audiences To Whom You Can't Countersignal", but that just has no punch to it.
Another clarification example: If a community used what you know as a status symbol, would it be signaling or countersignaling to ask for an answer you didn't have?
Guessing in advance of Alicorn's reply (edit: ninja'd!): that reads to me as countersignaling unless there is a norm in favor of asking for information. Asking for an answer you didn't have here (for example) would not be read as a status signal unless the question were particularly wrongheaded.
Edit: An example I have read of but not seen firsthand is the classroom in Brazil where Feynman taught - in which none of his students were willing to show ignorance by asking questions in class.
A priest goes before the altar and prostrates himself before it and says, "I am nothing before you God." A rich man comes in after him, prostrates himself before the altar and says, "I am nothing before you God." A beggar comes off the street and prostrates himself before the altar and says, "I am nothing before you God."
The rich man then whispers to the priest, "Look who thinks HE'S nothing."
Strangers and counter-signaling:
You cannot counter signal with people who have no previous impression about the attribute you are counter-signaling.
Whether the person is a stranger or friend is irrelevant. A counter-signal is likely to work whenever the recipient already has a positive view of the attribute you are counter-signaling.
Note you can send a positive and negative (counter) signal at the same time. If the net is positive counter-signal will work.
Good friends don't signal:
I think that friends that know you well do not pay much attention to signals or counter-signals. Signals are used when a person has incomplete information about another person.
Friends who really know you will not be fooled by fake counter-signals while strangers may be fooled if primed correctly beforehand with a positive signal.
See also: (Meta) Poe's Law.
Interesting post. The--I shall dub it--Schrödinger's Racist example is very good, and it brings me cold-warm fuzzies of indignant recognition from my experiences of 'Not really racist'/'Just banter'/etc., even if that's not for what you were aiming.
Edit after a brief a-Googling: Hah! Someone beat me to 'Schrödinger's racist'.
This explains why so much "signalling" stuff sounded so implausible to me. Nearly all of the people I interact with (not counting NPC-like situations such as those with clerks) already have so much information about me that what I can do in a short period of time (unless it's something very unusual) will be unlikely to substantially affect their opinion about me; this situation is probably much rarer among people who live in larger cities and/or are not as easily recognizable.
I don't think I usually mean it as counter-signalling (from the inside, it feels like I'm talking in a way that I find more fun/interesting/funny), but I have little bits of self-depreciation as part of my normal speech. I have to consciously turn it off for job interviews, because in that context it always gets taken literally. This is probably why. (Possibly also some influence from the other person consciously trying to evaluate me during the conversation.)
One model for tourism consumer behaviour is the 'bragging rights model'. It probably applies to cars as well. Among those of us with better things to do with our time and model, the bragging probably comes from the ethical and intelligence consumerism. Despite tangential work experience that probably would get me cred in that line of work, I wouldn't even apply for jobs at a car dealership. Waste of production, not just consumption!


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