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European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
An Assessment of Global Factors towards the Financial Performance of a Containership Using a Bayesian Network Method N. S. F. ABDUL RAHMAN Department of Maritime Management, Faculty of Maritime Studies and Marine Science, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. Phone: +609-6684252; E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com The research is financed by the Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia and Universiti Malaysia Terengganu. ABSTRACT The movement of containerised goods made 2009 debatably the most dramatic year in the history of the box. A Bayesian network methodology associated with the cause and effect analysis technique is introduced to analyse the global economic conditions, the container market demand and the bunker fuel price in order to measure the financial performance of a containership. This method demonstrates the combination of qualitative and quantitative criteria in order to ensure that the best possible decision can be made by a shipping company. As a consequence, the result provided by the Bayesian Network method can be used as an indicator for helping shipping lines plan a cost-effective business strategy. Keywords: Bayesian Network Method; Uncertainty Treatment; Vessel Speed; Containership; Decision Making Technique. 1. INTRODUCTION Before the global crisis, most shipping companies enjoyed very high profit margin in business operations on all loops. However, from the middle of 2008, most shipping lines suffered in operating their vessels due to the global financial turmoil and the sharp increase of bunker fuel price (Barillo, 2011). Such issues created a bad phenomenon in the international maritime trade. As a result, a trade demand was dramatically decreased on all the major routes (UNCTAD, 2009; Clarkson Research Services, 2009) and ultimately it caused a surplus in the containership service (Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011). Therefore, most shipping lines looked for the cost-effective business strategy to ensure that their trades can be smoothly operated. In late 2008, the world faced a financial crisis and economic recession, and soon after, the increase of bunker fuel price. As a result, the world gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.9% (Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011). In the years 2007 to March 2009, container market demands fell by up to 10% (UNCTAD, 2009). Such an issue was not only due to low container demand, but also the vessel supply side. In 2007 and 2008, a massive increase in the orderbook was witnessed before the economic and financial crisis globally (Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011). An oversupply of containerships and a decline in the container demand occurred in the same year as the global issues. Also, there is high pressure for shipping companies to reduce emissions produced by the container shipping sector (IMO, 2010). Due to such issues mentioned above, the revenue of the container shipping sector fell by 45% in 2009 compared to 2007 especially for A.P. Moller Maersk Group (lost $1 billion based on 2009 revenue) (Siyu, 2011). As a consequence, most shipping companies decided to adopt a low steaming speed (22 knots or less). Such a speed has been implemented in the liner shipping markets since the second half of 2008 (Cariou, 2010). Generally, the reasons of implementing such a speed were due to the global crisis as follows: i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi) vii)
The downturn in the global economy resulting in reducing transportation capacity demand (UNCTAD, 2010; Wiesmann, 2010; Clarkson Research Services Limited, 2012). The substantial global orderbook for new tonnage, a legacy from the boom years, resulting in record high deliveries of new ships (Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011). The global financial crisis (Holt , 2011; Wiesmann, 2010). High fuel costs (Barillo, 2011; Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011). The sudden fall in ship values (Wiesmann, 2010). Increase of operating costs (manning, lubricant oil, maintenance, etc.) (Wiesmann, 2010). Falling freight rates (UNCTAD, 2010; Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011; Wiesmann, 2010).
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013 viii)
Introduction of the new regulation of the global warming and gas emissions (IMO, 2010; Kontovas and Psaraftis, 2011; Wiesmann, 2010).
Hence, selection of an appropriate steaming speed of containerships for a specific leg or loop of trade service is one of the most important decisions shipping lines have to make in order to reduce vessels' expenditure costs together with providing a good service performance to customers. The implementation of different levels of steaming speed will automatically influence the vessels' expenditure costs together with other elements such as total journey time, total number of vessels deployed, total fuel consumption, etc.. There are very few published publications related to the container market demand and global economic conditions which are in connection with the vessel's speed. Several published journal and conference papers relating to the bunker fuel, emission and vessel's speed are found to deal with the fuel and emissions (Curtis, 2009; Percy et al., 1996; Haglind, 2008; Buhuag et al., 2009; etc.), the vessel's speed and emissions (Corbett et al., 2009; Fagerholt et al., 2009; etc.) and also the speed of vessel and energy (Pakroo, 2000). Notteboom and Vernimmen (2009) have written a journal paper on the effect of high fuel costs on liner service configuration in container shipping by using a cost model analysis. The purpose of that paper is to simulate the impact of bunker cost changes on the operational costs of liner services. The analysis process has been conducted using bunker fuel prices as an indicator. As described earlier, there are three main global factors influence the liner sector in the decision making process. By analysing only one of them, it may be inappropriate to demonstrate the real phenomena faced by shipping lines. A containership owned by a shipping line is investigated in this paper. Thus, all costs including the capital, operational and voyage costs have to be covered by the shipping line (Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers, 2009). The capital costs are known as "fixed or standing costs". Such costs remain constant for a long period and have to be expended by a shipping line on monthly, quarterly or yearly basis, no matter if the vessels are employed. However, the operational and voyage costs are the most important costs involved in operating a containership. These costs include the crew's expenditure, administration and insurances costs, etc. from the original port to the destination port. Some of the sub-costs under the operational and voyage costs are dependent on the speed of the containership. In this paper, the vessel's speed has been formed into two categories which are full steaming speed and low steaming speed (Bonney and Leach, 2010). The objective of this paper is to analyse the global economic conditions, the container market demand and the bunker fuel prices in order to measure the financial performance of a containership under uncertainty using a Bayesian Network (BN) method. 2. METHODOLOGY The BN method was developed by Bayes in 1761 and Bayes' Theorem was published in 1763 (Bernardo and Smith, 1994). This method presents the fundamental concept of probabilistic graphical models or probabilistic networks. The characteristics of the BN method are described as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) consisting of nodes, arcs and an associated set of probability tables (Eleye-Datuba et al., 2006). A Conditional Probability Table (CPT) associated with each node denotes the strength of such causal dependence. According to Wang and Trbojevic (2007), nodes (usually drawn as circles) represent random (i.e. chance) variables such as events that take values from the given domains. Arcs are used to represent the direct probabilistic dependence relations among the variables. Each relationship is described by an arc connecting an influencing (parent) node to an influenced (child) node and has its terminating arrowhead pointing to the child node. The types of node can be categorised into four groups which are the Parent Node (directly preceding variables), Child Node (a node which is dependent on other variables), Root Node (a node which has no parent) and also Leaf Node (a node without children) (Hansen, 2000). Besides, the BN model encodes the dependencies and independencies between variables. Each variable in a BN model is independent of its ancestors given the values of its parents. For that reason, the D-separation technique that has been proposed by Pearl (1986, 1988) is applied. The definition of d-separation is that two sets of nodes X and Y are d-separated in a BN by a third set Z (excluding X and Y) if and only if every path between X and Y is "blocked", where the term "blocked" means that there is an intermediate variable which is different from X and Y. A detailed
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
explanation can be found in such literature as Kjaerulff and Madsen, (2005), Neapolitan, (2004), Shachter (1998) and Pearl (1986, 1988). 2.1 The Bayes's Theorem Bayes's theorem is a mathematical algorithm used for calculating the posterior probabilities. The purpose of this theorem is to measure the rational belief of probabilities. It is governed by the laws of probability and leans heavily on conditional probabilities in the theory of evidence and model. The fundamental rule of the probability can be symbolised as follows: │
(Eq. 1)
where "│" means "given" or "on the conditional of"; P(A) is usually called the prior probability of A occurring; P(A│B) is called the posterior probability of A occurring given the condition that B has occurred; P(B│A) is called the likelihood distribution (conditional probability) of A occurring given that B occurs too; P(B) is the marginal probability of B occurring and is effectively constant for the obtained data at hand. ,
(Eq. 2)
where , is called as a joint probability. Bayes' rule provides a method for updating beliefs about an event A given the information about another event B. Such algorithms allow the impact of evidence about one node to propagate to other nodes in multiple-connected trees for making the BN method as a reliable engine for probabilistic inference. For comprehensive coverage study of this method, there are several references that can be used as guidance such as Pearl (1988), Neapolitan (1990, 2004), Jensen (1996, 2001) and Korb and Nicholson (2003). 3.
AN ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL FACTORS TOWARDS THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF A CONTAINERSHIP Step 1: Identify the significant evaluation variables or nodes The cause and effect analysis technique is used for the process of identifying nodes in this study. This approach explains how something could happen in the vessel's financial performance due to uncertain conditions, while simultaneously looking for a mechanism that could be used to explain about causality. Also, this technique can be used to define the major causes, sub-causes and root causes that influence the vessel's financial performance. It is also easy to visualise the possible relationships between causes which may be creating problems financially. The development of such a technique is as follows: for example, the high bunker fuel price is influencing a shipping company to employ a lower steaming speed. By implementing the lower steaming speed, it influences a shipping company to add a number of vessels for maintaining the sailing frequency. At the same time, the total journey time will be influenced by the vessel's speed of a containership. As a result, 21 significant nodes have been identified for this study. These are 1) global economic conditions, 2) container market demand, 3) bunker fuel price, 4) vessel speed, 5) journey time, 6) fuel consumption, 7) additional vessel, 8) manning cost, 9) stores cost, 10) repair and maintenance cost, 11) insurance cost, 12) administration cost, 13) operational costs 1, 14) operational costs 2, 15) voyage costs 1, 16) voyage costs 2, 17) total operational costs, 18) total voyage costs, 19) total expenditure costs, 20) ship revenue and 21) financial analysis. Generally, the number of nodes could be different according to the types of route and containerships size used by the shipping companies. Shipping companies can simply add or drop any nodes from the model based on the uncertainty situation faced by them. After discussion session with the selected experts, 21 nodes have been addressed as a fundamental idea for developing the BN model incorporating the uncertain situation faced by shipping companies in 2008/2009. Such 21 nodes have been selected through the literature surveys and suggested by the experts. Step 2: Determine a number of states of each variable By using the similar techniques described in Step 1 together with a brainstorming technique, the states of all nodes are determined. For example, the states "high" and "low" for the node "Bunker Fuel Price" are defined as higher than the mean price and lower than the mean price over the period of interest, respectively. Furthermore, the states "more
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
cost", "normal cost" and "less cost" for the node "Total Voyage Costs" are defined as more than the mean cost, the mean cost and less than the mean cost over the period of interest, respectively. Each node listed in Step 1 has a minimum of two states and a maximum of three states to be studied. Each state has its specific meaning. The focal point of this study is the node "Vessel Speed". It contains two states of "full steaming" (23-25 knots) and "low steaming" (22 knots and less). Table 1 summarises a list of nodes and their states in this study. Table 1: The list of nodes and states for measuring the financial performance No. Node States 1 Global Economic Conditions (GEC) booming, stable, recession 2 Container Market Demand (CMD) increase, decrease 3 Bunker Fuel Price (BFP) high, low 4 Vessel Speed (VS) full steaming, low steaming 5 Journey Time (JT) increase, normal 6 Fuel Consumption (FC) normal, reduce 7 Additional Vessel (AV) 0, 1 8 Manning Cost (MC) increase, normal 9 Stores Cost (SC) increase, normal 10 Repair and Maintenance Cost (RMC) increase, normal 11 Insurance Cost (IC) increase, normal 12 Administration Cost (AC) increase, normal 13 Operational Costs 1 (OC1) more cost, normal cost 14 Operational Costs 2 (OC2) extra cost, zero cost 15 Voyage Costs 1 (VC1) more cost, less cost 16 Voyage Costs 2 (VC2) extra cost, zero cost 17 Total Operational Costs (TOC) more cost, normal cost 18 Total Voyage Costs (TVC) more cost, normal cost, less cost 19 Total Expenditure Costs (TEC) more cost, normal cost, less cost 20 Ship Revenue (SR) more, less 21 Financial Analysis (FA) more profit, normal profit, less profit Step 3: Develop a BN model A qualitative BN model representing the financial performance of the container shipping sector is developed according to the nodes and states identified in Table 1 (Figure 1). The hierarchy development of such a model is using the Top-Down and Bottom-Up approaches. A Top-Down approach is defined as an approach that begins at the highest conceptual level and works down to the details. For example, the node "Vessel Speed" is influenced by nodes "Container Market Demand", "Global Economic Conditions" and "Bunker Fuel Price". There is an independent relationship between the nodes "CMD" and "GEC". For instance, if the node "GEC=stable", the node "CMD" could be increase and decrease. There is no direct link between these two nodes. The selection of steaming speed made on the node "Vessel Speed" will affect the other two child nodes, namely "Journey Time" and "Fuel Consumption". However, a Bottom-Up approach is defined as an approach that begins with details and works up to the highest conceptual level. For example, the nodes "Total Operational Costs" and "Total Voyage Costs" are influencing the node "Total Expenditure Costs".
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
Figure 1: The BN model representing the financial performance of a containership Step 4: Analyse the qualitative and quantitative data The developed model can be mixture with both quantitative and qualitative dataset. The idea of using qualitative dataset in some parameters is to improve the prediction of the outputs when dealing with uncertainty situations. The outputs may be different if different outputs are used. In the real practice, shipping companies can use their own dataset in order to get the real output without affecting the model. (i) Quantitative data There are two quantitative datasets in this study, namely 1) global economic conditions and 2) bunker fuel price. These datasets have been obtained from the Clarkson Research Services database. An analysis process has been conducted in order to obtain a probability value of each state of these two variables. The time series data of the world GDP growth is collected from the year of 1998 to 2010 with the purpose of illustrating the performance of global economic conditions. There are 13 different growth rates of the world GDP for the period of 13 years. An indication has been determined to identify the difference between the three states of this node, "booming", "stable" and "recession". If the growth rate of the world GDP is below zero, it would automatically be grouped in the state "recession". 2009 falls into this category with -1.32% of growth rate. The other two states can be determined using a mean growth rate of the world GDP. The mean growth rate can be calculated as follows: (Eq. 3)
where ΣX is the total growth rate of the world GDP. It can be computed by adding up all growth rates of the world GDP from 1998 to 2010 and the result is 43.02%. ΣN is the total number of years. From 1998 to 2010, there are 13 years in total. By using Eq. 3, the mean growth rate of the world GDP is 3.309%. Thus, the percentage growth of the world GDP in the range between 0.00% and 3.309% will be grouped in the state "stable", while if the growth rate is 3.310% and above, then it would be grouped in the state "booming". As a result, the probability values of the states "booming", "stable" and "recession" are 0.538 (7/13), 0.385 (5/13) and 0.077 (1/13). The same technique has been applied to the node "Bunker Fuel Price" in order to compute the probability values of the states "high" and "low". The 380cst of bunker fuel price ($/tonne) has been collected from Clarkson Research Services. Such a set of data contains 13 values representing annually data from 1998 to 2010. As a consequence, the probability values of the state "high" is (6/13) = 0.4615, while the probability values of the state "low" is (7/13) = 0.5385. (ii) Qualitative data There are 19 qualitative datasets that have been gathered through a set of questionnaires and interview sessions with the selected shipping experts. In the set of questionnaires, each expert is required to tick a probability rate based on the situation discussed. Such a probability rate is divided into 2 parts which are 1) increase (right hand side) and 2) normal (left hand side). It starts from zero probability rate as a middle value to differentiate the probability rate between the
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
right and left hand sides. The terms used for both sides are depending on the states' names of each corresponding node. All probability rates given by the experts will be transformed into a probability value ranging from 0 to 1. Zero probability rate is a middle value that can be translated as 0.5000 of the probability value, while the probability rates from 1 to 5 on both right and left hand sides can be transformed to the probability value as shown in Table 2. The probability value of each node must be summed up to 1.0000, for instance 0.4300 (normal) + 0.5700 (increase) = 1.0000. Table 2: The fundamental concept of the probability rate and probability value 0.0 5 normal
1.0 5 increase
Step 5: Prior and posterior probability distribution The probability values of each node in the BN model will be computed using the Hugin software tool. The abbreviations listed in Table 1 are used to represent the corresponding nodes. To demonstrate the calculation process, the case in Figure 2 is examined.
Figure 2: A BN model for analysing the conditional and unconditional probabilities CPT for Global Economic Conditions (GEC) (without conditions) GEC booming
For example, P(GEC=recession) = 0.0770 CPT for Bunker Fuel Price (BFP) (without conditions) BFP high
For example, P(BFP=high) = 0.4615
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
CPT for Container Market Demand (CMD) (without conditions) CMD increase
For example, P(CMD=decrease) = 0.5000 CPT for Vessel Speed (VS) (with conditions) Vessel Speed GEC
recession decrease
full steaming
low steaming
For example, P(VS=full steaming │ BFP=high, CMD=decrease, GEC=recession) = 0.0000 By using the conditional probability values given in the CPT for each node, the prior probability values can be obtained. For example, the prior probability value of the node "VS=full steaming" is calculated using Eq. 2 as follows: P VS
full steaming
high, BFP stable, GEC
low, CMD
increase, CMD
decrease, GEC
= (0.8 × 0.4615 × 0.5 × 0.5380) + (1.0 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.5380) + (0.1 × 0.4615 × 0.5 × 0.5380) + (0.6 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.5380) + (0.733 × 0.4615 × 0.5 × 0.3850) + (0.995 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.3850) + (0.05 × 0.4615 × 0.5 × 0.3850) + (0.5 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.3850) + (0.6 × 0.4615 × 0.5 × 0.0770) + (0.8 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.0770) + (0.0 × 0.4615× 0.5 × 0.0770) + (0.1 × 0.5385 × 0.5 × 0.0770) = 0.5974 The prior probability value of the node "VS=full steaming" is known to be 0.5974 while the one for "VS=low steaming" is 1.0000 – 0.5974 = 0.4026. Such values can also be calculated using the Hugin software tool as shown in Figure 3.
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
Figure 3: The pre-posterior probability value of the node "Vessel Speed"
The process of computing the prior probability values of the node "VS" is called pre-posterior analysis. To continue, a piece of evidence is entered to the node "CMD=decrease" with the purpose of determining the updated posterior probability values of the node "Vessel Speed". The posterior probability value of the node "VS=low steaming" given "CDM=decrease" is computed using Eq. 1.
low steaming | CMD
decrease, VS
decrease, VS low steaming P CMD decrease
low steaming, BFP
high, BFP
stable, GEC P CMD
low, GEC
0.9 4 0.4615 4 0.5 4 0.5380 ; 0.4 4 0.5385 4 0.5 4 0.5380 ; 0.95 4 0.4615 4 0.5 4 0.3850 ; 0.5 4 0.5385 4 0.5 4 0.3850 ; 1.0 4 0.4615 4 0.5 4 0.0770 ; 0.9 4 0.5385 4 0.5 4 0.0770 0.5000
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
Figure 4: The analysis of the node "Financial Analysis" given evidence to the node "CMD=decrease" After giving a piece of evidence to the node "CMD=decrease", the result shows that the new posterior probability value of the node "VS=low steaming" increases from 0.4026 to 0.6847 (Figure 4). Due to such an increase of the node "VS=low steaming", the posterior probability values of all nodes are significantly updated except the nodes "BFP" and "GEC" because there is no correlation between both nodes with the node "Container Market Demand". The idea of low steaming has been introduced in the shipping industry since the middle of 2008 when the container market demand slumped, the global economic recession and the sharp increase in bunker fuel price occurred. By giving evidence to the nodes "CMD=decrease", "GEC=recession" and "BFP=high", it drives shipping lines to 100% reduction of vessel's speed from full steaming to low steaming (Figure 5). By adopting the low steaming speed, the probability values of the node "TEC=more cost" is updated and increased from 0.5089 to 1.0000. Also, the node "SR=less" illustrates the increase of the probability values from 0.5000 to 1.0000. Finally, this model shows that the probability value of the goal node "FA=less profit" increases from 0.4933 to 1.0000.
Figure 5: The analysis of the node "Financial Analysis" given evidence to the nodes "BFP=high", "GEC=recession" and "CMD=decrease"
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
4. CONCLUSIONS This paper uses a BN model for analysing the global economic conditions, the container market demand and the bunker fuel prices in order to measure the financial performance of a containership under uncertainty. A test case has been created with the purpose of demonstrating the general uncertain situations faced by shipping companies. The developed model is dynamic and enables to be used in different situation based on uncertain situations faced by shipping companies. In the real practice, shipping companies can add or drop any node or parameter based on the uncertain situation faced by them. The models can also be applied in different service routes due to the flexibility of dealing with uncertainty conditions. The output may be different if 1) different situations are adopted, 2) the total number of experts is more or less than three and 3) different inputs are included. REFERENCES Barillo, N. (2011). Slow steaming – NOI, Federal Maritime Commission. Washington, D.C. 1-8. Bernardo, J.M. & Smith, A.F.M. (1994). Bayesian theory. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. Bonney, J. & Leach, P.T. (2010). Slow boat from China. Journal of Commerce, February 1, 11 (5), 10-14. Buhuag, O., Corbett, J.J., Endresen, O., Eyring, V., Faber, J., Hanayama, S., Lee, D.S., Lee, D., Lindstad, H., Mjelde, A., Palsson, C., Wanquing, W., Winebrake, J.J., & Yoshida, K., (2009). Second IMO greenhouse gas study. London: International Maritime Organization. Cariou, P. (2010). The impact of speed reduction on liner shipping CO2 emissions. WMU, Working Paper July. Clarkson Research Services (2009). Shipping Sector Reports: Liner Vessels. Available from: http://www.clarksons.net. Clarkson Research Services (2012). Containerships Deliveries 1996-2011. Clarkson Shipping Networks. Corbett, J.J., Wang, H. & Winebrake, J.J. (2009). The effectiveness and costs of speed reductions on emissions from international shipping. Journal of Transportation Research Part D, 14 (8), 593-598. Curtis, F. (2009). Peak globalization: climate change, oil depletion and global trade. Journal of Ecological Economics, 69 (2), 427-434. Eleye-Datuba, A.G., Wall, A., Saajedi, A., & Wang, J. (2006). Enabling a powerful marine and offshore decision-support solution through Bayesian network technique. Risk Analysis, 26 (3), 695-721. Fagerholt, K., Laporte, G. & Norstad, I. (2009). Reducing fuel emissions by optimizing speed on shipping routes. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61 (3), 523-529. Haglind, F. (2008). A review on the use of gas and steam turbine combained cycles as prime movers for large ships. Part III: Fuels and emissions. Journal of Energy Conversion and Management, 49 (12 ), 3476-3482. Hansen, A.F. (2000). Bayesian networks as a decision support tool in marine applications. Department of Naval Architecture and Offshore Engineering, Technical University of Denmark. Hayes, K. (1998). Bayesian statistical inference in ecological risk assessment. Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests, Technical Report 17. Holt, T. (2011). Quantim – a containership for the future, Engineers Australia – Sydney Division Presentation, Joint RINA/IMarEst Technical Presentation, 2 March. Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers (2009). Economics for sea transport and international trade. Seamanship International Ltd. International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2010). Annex VI of the IMO MARPOL Convention, London. Jensen, F.V. (1996). An introduction to Bayesian networks. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc. Jensen, F.V. (2001). Bayesian networks and decision graphs. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc. Jensen, F.V. & Nielsen, T.D (2007). Bayesian networks and decision graphs. 2nd ed.. Springer Science and Business Media, LCC. Kjaerulff, U.B. & Madsen, A.L. (2005). Probabilistic networks — an introduction to bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Aalborg University Press, Denmark. Kontovas, C.A. & Psaraftis, H.N. (2011). The link between economy and environment in the post crisis era: lessons learned from slow steaming. Available from: www.stt.aegean.gr/econship2011/index.php. Korb, K.B. & Nicholson, A.E. (2003). Bayesian artificial intelligence. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. Neapolitan, R.E. (1990). Probabilistic reasoning in expert systems: theory and algorithms. John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Notteboom, T.E. & Vernimmen, B. (2009). The effect of high fuel costs on liner service configuration in container shipping. Journal of Transport Geography, 17 (5), 325-337.
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.7, 2013
Pakroo, H. (2008). Impact of slow steaming options on energy efficiency. In: Tozer, D. (2008) Container ship speed matter. Lloyd's Register. 49-50. Pearl, J. (1986). Fusion, propagation and structuring in belief networks. Artificial Intelligence, 29 (3), 241-288. Pearl, J. (1988). Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. Percy, R., Vincent, J. & Fingas, M. (1996). Bunker 'C' fuel oil and the irving whale. Environment Canada, Government of Canada, Montreal. Shachter, R.D. (1998). Bayes-ball: The rational pastime (for determining irrelevance and requisite information in belief networks and influence diagrams). Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 480-487. Siyu, Z. (2011). Moller-Maersk staying afloat, China Daily. Available from: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-12/22/content_14304715.htm Ullman, D.G. & Spiegel, B. (2006). Trade studies with uncertain information. Sixteenth Annual International Symposium, INCOSE. UNCTAD (2009). Review on Maritime Transport 2009. United Nations Publication. UNCTAD (2010). Review on Maritime Transport 2010. United Nations Publication. Waldo, J. (2009). Memphis role in the global/national transportation picture the importance of our infrastructure. Global Insight Inc. Wang, J. & Trbojevic, V. (2007). Design for safety of large marine and offshore engineering products. Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology. Wiesmann, A. (2010). Slow steaming – a viable long-term option?. Wartsila Technical Journal, 2, 49-55.
Dr. Noorul Shaiful Fitri Abdul Rahman is currently affiliating with Faculty of Maritime Studies and Marine Science, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. His research interests include steaming speed of the maritime transportation, decision making techniques, shipping economics and finance, uncertainty treatment and modelling research in the maritime sector.
Published on Apr 1, 2013


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Yesterday Avery and I went on a walk out at Chalco. We wanted to see if the fairy houses were out and of course, look for 'reindeer' (per Avery's request). No fairy homes yet but plenty of deer!
If anyone lives in the area and is looking for a tranquil place to walk and explore, I would highly recommend getting out there. Many different routes to walk around, many shaded so it's nice on a warm day. I always leave feeling refreshed as if I've stepped out of the city for a bit.
Just wanted to share this photo of Avery chasing butterflies and picking a bouquet of weeds for me :)


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This property has been removed by the agent. It may be sold or temporarily removed from the market
5 bedroom semi-detached house for saleCromwell Road, Hayes, Middx, UB3
Property Description
Key features
- Extended Semi Det House
- 3 Reception Rooms
- Downstairs Shower Room
- 5 Bedrooms
- 22ft Kitchen / Diner
- Ample Off Street Parking
- Outhouse / Annexe
- Re Furbished Throughout
Full description
Charrison Davis are delighted to offer for sale this well presented and extended semi det house. Benefiting from a double storey side and single storey rear extension accommodation now comprises hallway, 3 reception rooms, 22 ft kitchen / diner, downstairs shower room, 5 bedrooms and bathroom. The property has been completely refurbished throughout and is offered for sale in excellent condition throughout. The property would suit a large family
Tiled Flooring
tiled floor, fitted meter cupboard, radiator, staircase to first floor
Downstairs Shower Room
enclosed shower cubicle, inset wash hand basin with cupboards under, low level wc, part tiled walls, tiled floor and built in extractor fan
Reception Room 1
6.45m(21'2'') x 3.76m(12'4'')
front aspect double glazed window, radiator, laminate flooring, fireplace and double doores to kitchen / diner
Reverse View
4.52m(14'10'') x 3.18m(10'5'')
front aspect double glazed window and side aspect double glazed door leading to garden, radiator, laminate floor and inset lighting
Kitchen / Diner
6.63m(21'9'') x 5.44m(17'10'')
range of eye and base level units, one and a half bowl sink unit with mixer tap, built in oven and hob with extractor hood over, tiled floor, radiator, space and plumbing for washing machine, inset lighting, breakfast bar, space for fridge freezer, rear aspect double glazed window and doors leading garden
Reverse View
3.35m(11'0'') x 3.18m(10'5'')
laminate flooring, side aspect double glazed window and inset lighting
First Floor Landing
fitted carpet, inset lighting, built in storage cupboard and access to loft
Bedroom 1
4.83m(15'10'') x 3.10m(10'2'')
front and side aspect double glazed window, laminate flooring, radiator and fitted wardrobes
Bedroom 2
3.76m(12'4'') x 3.25m(10'8'')
front aspect double glazed window, radiator, laminate flooring and fitted wardrobe
Bedroom 3
3.25m(10'8'') x 2.77m(9'1'')
rear aspect double glazed window, radiator, laminate flooring and fitted wardrobes
Bedroom 4
3.25m(10'8'') x 3.00m(9'10'')
rear aspect double glazed window, radiator, laminate flooring and fitted wardrobe
Bedroom 5
2.84m(9'4'') x 2.13m(7'0'')
front aspect double glazed window, radiator and laminate flooring
panel enclosed bath with shower attachment and mixer tap, wall mounted wash hand basin with cupboards under, low level wc, tiled walls and floor, heated towel rail and rear aspect frosted double glazed window
ample off street parking via own driveway to the front, rear garden, laid to lawn with patio area and brick built annexe / outhouse with double glazed windows, power and lighting
N.B. Charrison Davis, as agents for the vendors, have not tested any apparatus, equipment, fixtures or fittings or services and so cannot verify that they are in working order, or fit for their purpose. Neither have Charrison Davis checked the legal documents to verify the leasehold or freehold status of the property and any purchaser is advised to obtain verification from their solicitor or surveyor.
More information from this agent
To view this media, please visit the on-line version of this page at www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34813226.html
Listing History
Map & Street View
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Market Info
Disclaimer - Property reference 113685A_13685. The information displayed about this property comprises a property advertisement. Rightmove.co.uk makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the advertisement or any linked or associated information, and Rightmove has no control over the content. This property advertisement does not constitute property particulars. The information is provided and maintained by Charrison Davis, Hayes. Please contact the selling agent or developer directly to obtain any information which may be available under the terms of The Energy Performance of Buildings (Certificates and Inspections) (England and Wales) Regulations 2007 or the Home Report if in relation to a residential property in Scotland.
Map data ©OpenStreetMap contributors.


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Mall Promotions
Exciting commercial opportunities for new and established mall retailers and promoters are available at the Guildhall Shopping Centre. The Guildhall has a number of areas with excellent visibility within the mall that are available for hire for promotional and retail purposes, providing a great stage for both national and local businesses to promote their services and products. With high footfall and competitive rates, the Guildhall is an ideal venue for you to make direct sales or advertise your products and services.
Promote your product of services on the malls of the Guildhall and you have access to an average of 140,000 potential customers each week. Commercial organisations, community groups and charities can all utilise the malls of the Guildhall to talk to customers, create awareness and sell products. Promoting at the Guildhall is really effective and could not be easier to arrange -- simply contact the Management Office, for more information. (contact details below)
Banners/Advertising Boards
We have a number of banner and advertising sites along the malls of the Guildhall and these are available to businesses from as little as £100 per week plus a one-off production cost of a banner (can be produced for as little as £120).
Car Park Advertising
Advertising space is available on our 270 space multi-storey car park. Ideal for car dealerships, financial service providers, etc.
If you are interested in booking please contact the Marketing & Promotions Manager at the Guildhall Shopping Centre on 01785 223107.
For further details on any of the above advertising opportunities, please contact:
Marketing Manager
Management Office
Guildhall Shopping Centre
Market Square
Tel: 01785 223107


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100 Wicklow Drive, Richmond Hill, Georgia
$314,5584 Beds3+ BathsActive
$314,5584 Beds3+ BathsActive
100 Wicklow Drive, Richmond Hill, Georgia 31324 - The all new Blue Belle by Beacon Builders is 3631 sq ft of stunning splendor. 4 bdrm, 3.5 bath. The master bedroom suite is on main and has a sep garden tub & shower, separated double vanities, loaded with tile and granite and opens onto the covered porch. Large kitchen with custom cabinets, granite, floating island is open to the coffered great room. Upstairs are 3 more spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths. This home will be decked out with custom trim work, wood floors, tile, granite and S/S appliances. Dbl garage.
Listing Courtesy of LIGHTHOUSE POINT REALTY, LLC


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Sturgis Rally Videos and Photos 2010
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally 2010 Number Two .. Let The Good Times Roll!
Sturgis Rally 2010 Before The Official Start
Pre Rally Main Street Sturgis
Come back often as there is a ton more cool stuff coming up
Motorcycle club colors are they a badge of honor, a target or an intimidation tool?
Sturgis South Dakota USA is at least one time a year, early in August over ran with people that wear many patches on their clothes. They wear black leather with brightly colored insignias and graphics showing the world what their favorite motorcycle brand is, where their home town is or shouting their opinion in embroidered thread. At a typical rally there may be 500,000 people with an average of three patches each.. some have only one, some do not sport a patch and some… have dozens. So maybe 1,500,000 patches at a typical rally, yet a few draw a lot more attention than others.
More specifically Sturgis Motorcycle rally like many other rallies is a gathering place for many who live the motorcycling lifestyle. They eat, breathe, work, play, live, love, wake and sleep with motorcycles involved. Some of these are the members of three piece patch motorcycle clubs. If imitation is the most sincere form of flattery then the clubs should be flattered. So many want to appear as the club riders do, but without the baggage, with out any commitment and I say with out honor. Every year at Sturgis Rally, we see more shirts and patches that resemble a motorcycle club patch so the average joe can look like a real biker.. why are these colors as they are called so copied and coveted. Many live for them, would die for them and many have perished for the sake a a three piece patch set…
What is it about motorcycle club colors? Is it just a intimidation tool?
We can observe this behavior as it is quite common. People take on a persona designed to get others to leave them alone. As a young boy I was always heavy and overweight, as a defense I quite often acted mean or tough to get some to leave me alone. Believe me I never was real mean and or tough.. I am a lover of people and fun yet I had to survive. People wear macabre graphics and even tattoo skulls and other grotesque figures on themselves to give a feeling of dread. To show the world how tough they are. Many go through great lengths to just intimidate others. Do not be mistaken many who wear motorcycle club colors are very serious individuals and can be very intimidating, the difference is that is who they really are. Most of them have had to live up to the image so many times that it is not an act but who they really are. They have also been tested time and time again of their loyalty to their colors, many more have paid a huge price for the life style that they have chosen. Many motorcycle club colors, to the uninformed are quite intimidating yet for those that just want to intimidate others maybe just stick to some really scary grotesque patches and if you really want to be tough get them tattooed on you but being loyal to a group may be a little out of your realm.
Is it just a target?
It can be! If you want the attention of every rubber necker, most people, DEA CIA, local law enforcement and Club member around just ride down Main Street with a set of motorcycle club colors that is unfamiliar and you will know they are a target.. For many years I thought that it would be foolish to live and die for a huge group of men most that I didn't know, not wanting to wear their target on my back. Things have changed for me as I am honored to wear the yellow and black for Soldiers For Jesus MC.
Our club colors are a badge of honor..
As I have lived in and around the motorcycle club communities I meet more men every year that would die and live every day for the rag on their back. If I have to explain than you may not understand anyway..
Many of them I have a deep respect for because of the price they have paid to wear the patches that they do. These are not patches that are bought but earned.
I say that they are a badge of honor for those that understand what they really mean and live the life that backs it up.
Again this year many of us have felt the discrimination of private businesses not allowing club colors in their establishments. I say this is a direct reflection of the way our society is going and a infringement of our right to the pursuit of happiness.
To the riders who proudly wear their colors and have earned them I say fly yours , ride free , and like us just don't spend your money where they discriminate.
This is still America, home of the free because of the brave..
Love, Loyalty and Respect
Soldiers for Jesus MC
Sturgis South Dakota USA
Originally uploaded by mrkensworld777
I am looking forward to this years pictures and posts!
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally otherwise known as The Black Hills Motor Classic Rally and Races, comes in the first week of August every year. Here is what main street will look like again this year.
Will you be in the picture?
It is the event of the year here in Sturgis South Dakota USA!
It is loved by many and dreaded by some.
The Black Hills Motor Classic brings up to 400,000 extra people to our area every August!
The first week of August every year since 1943 Sturgis transforms from a small town to Hog Heaven USA!
This is Main Street 2007!
Traffic counts were down to 400,000 last year.It is hard to tell the difference!
Here are some past statistics from The South Dakota DOT
DOT Traffic Counts:
2008 (68th) – 401,000
1990 (50th) – 400,000
1999 (59th) – 300,000-325,000
2000 (60th) – 550,000-633,000
2001 (61st) – 410,000
2002 (62nd) – 450,000
2003 (63rd) – 502,000
2004 (64th) – 514,951
2005 (65th) – 525,250
2006 (66th) – 456,968
2007 (67th) – 507,234
2008 (68th) – 400,000
This is part of Main Street that you dont usually see, the other end..
Here is some more information on Sturgis 57785 Home of the Black Hills Motor Classic!
Here is a short Video of Sturgis Main Street In March of 2009
Here is another resource of mine The Black Hills Motor Classic in Sturgis, South Dakota USA 57785
2008 has come and gone, many things have changed. We elected the 44th and first black president of the United States, the economy has sunk to a historical low and many of us are now looking for new jobs. One thing hasn't changed however and that is the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Yes indeed no matter how things change you can always count on the Sturgis Rally to lift your spirits. This year being the 69th is set for August 3rd – 9th. Are You Ready! Don't count on the world stopping and waiting for you, it's time to make your plans. Before we know it, August will be here and we'll be right back in the middle of Main Street madness and partying mayhem, loving every minute of it!
Many of us begin planning for "next year" soon after leaving "this year". The excitement and memories are hard to let go, new friends are made and old acquaintances are renewed, deciding to come back and do it all over again is a no brainer. Some folks will be coming for the first time, and others will just show up. No matter what group you fit, you are sure to make some wonderful memories, new friends and have a fantastic time.
The beauty of the Black Hills is breathtaking and the roads are pure joy for a biker.
There are many places on this planet that offer this kind of riding but Western South Dakota in August is unbeatable. Incredible roads like Iron Mountain, Needles Highway, Spearfish Canyon and the Wildlife Loop take you to amazing destinations. Rides to Mount Rushmore National Memorial, Custer State Park, Crazy Horse Memorial, Bear Butte State Park, the Badlands and Devil's Tower National Monument are truly incredible rides you are sure to enjoy. Highway 14A's big, wide turns transport you to the infamous town of Deadwood and the mining town of Lead, and the awesome Highway 385 meanders past towns like Hill City, Silver City and Custer, all contained in the Black Hills National Forest. These rides are awe-inspiring and amazing and are a joy that will be remembered until the day you (insert own word or phrase here).
In addition to the roads and day trips there are many events: concerts, races, and bike shows, five blocks of Main Street bikes-only street vibe, the 7th Annual Mayor's Ride, Michael Lichter's annual exhibit, the 6th Annual World Championship of Custom Bike Building, free style stunters, the Sturgis Motorcycle Museum & Hall of Fame, organized rides, the Limpnickie Lot, some pretty impressive watering holes, custom legends, blue skies, warm and sunny days. There are many other of motorcycle related events to keep participants occupied. Boss Hoss demo rides are featured throughout the event. Burnout competitions are popular with spectators and are offered a few times during the week at the Full Throttle Saloon. There are demos and exhibits throughout the day each day of the event and shows featuring custom bikes from around the country. There will also be many vendors on hand offering everything from motorcycle related merchandise to tattoos as well as great food and of course your favorite beverages are plentiful.
The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is an experience of a lifetime, if you haven't started your planning now is the time to begin. The town of Sturgis has a population of less than 7,000 so it is understandable that an event attracting over half a million bikers would create logistical problems with lodging concerns. If you are planning to attend, it is wise to make reservations for accommodations well in advance of your trip to ensure you can secure a room close to the main site of the rally. Below is a list of some great places where your sleeping accommodations can be made.
To find a lodging in the Sturgis area go to:http://www.blackhillsmotels.com/.
Camping is the most popular option for those attending the rally (mostly because there are not enough lodging for everyone), don't sweat it though, some of the best parties are in the camp grounds! Nearby campgrounds include the following:
Big Rig RV Park: – features wireless Internet access and spacious lots of 60′ and 100′ close to the rally site.
Bulldog Campground: – features RV camping as well as cabins which accommodate 2-8 guests. This campground is located five miles from Sturgis and features nightly entertainment and happy hour as well as an onsite restaurant.
Creekside Campground: – located 4 miles from Sturgis, this campground features RV camping, tent camping as well as cabins. Highlights of the campground include an onsite store selling food and beverages and easy highway access.
Glencoe Camp Resort: – has been catering to Sturgis participants for over 20 years. This campground has over 160 acres of camping with ample shade. In 2006 they will unveil a 34 acre outdoor amphitheater which will feature live music all week long. A 24 hour restaurant is also onsite for the convenience of campers.
Hog Heaven Campground: – with over 150 acres of camping, this campground situated in the Black Hills is an ideal location for Sturgis participants. The campground is open from July 31st through Aug. 13th this year and will host live bands providing entertainment for guests.
Katmandu Campground: – features 250 RV sites, cabins and 50 acres of camping. Located just two miles from Sturgis, this location is convenient for participants. Highlighted amenities include laundry facilities and wireless Internet access.
Sturgis View Campground: – located only 1.5 miles from downtown Sturgis. This campground is famous for its spectacular views. Other highlights include RV camping, cabins and ample acreage for tent camping.
For more information about these accommodations do a web search using the respective venue name as the key phrase.
One Word of Caution
Don't want to be a downer here but please be advised. An unfortunate aspect of Sturgis is the frequent occurrence of the disappearance of motorcycles. Estimates indicate approximately a $250,000 worth of motorcycles are stolen each year. Considering today's prices this is equivalent to 3 to 10 bikes or so. That's not many considering there could be 200,000 bikes at the event. However if it's your bike that gets stolen this fact is only make you feel worse. Motorcycles on the higher end of the price spectrum as well as custom bikes and show models are those most likely to be stolen, but all participants should take precautions to avoid becoming a victim.
For more information about Sturgis 2009 do a web search on key phrase "Sturgis Motorcycle Rally". There are many great sites available with complete event information and news to help you plan a great and enjoyable adventure.
This article written by Woody Longacre and is brought to you on behalf of HarleyResource.net, – Harley News, Videos, Articles, Chat Forum and Online shopping for everything Harley!
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Woody_Longacre


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This property is no longer available.Search for Available Property.
20.5 Acres - Otter Tail River Frontage with Covered Bridge, Frazee, MN
Parcel H 20.5 Acres
Borders the city on a city road. Beautiful river frontage and could potentially become part of the city in the future. Includes ownership of half of the covered bridge and the cross road.
This parcel is part of a multi property auction. Please visit website for full auction details.Final Sale Price to be determined at public auction.
Auction Date:
May 31st, 2016 at 6:00 pm
Live Auction to be Held at Frazee Event Center, 114 N Lake St, Frazee, Minnesota
Land Preview Dates:
Friday, May 20th from 4:00-6:00 PM and one hour prior to auction.
Hwy 87 to North River Drive. Watch for signs.
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Diesel is expensive, insurance is expensive, maintenance is expensive, and breakdowns happen. You need operating capital but unfortunately brokers usually take longer to pay than what they promise in their agreements.
There isn't one trucker on this earth who likes waiting for their money!
Part of AFT Dispatch services is 24-hr QuickPay. What this means is we will invoice and bill the broker within 24-hours of receipt of a signed Freight Bill, Bill of Lading (BOL), or Proof of Delivery (POD) and instruct your factor to pay you via ACH/Direct-Deposit.
Get started with AFT Dispatch and get your life back!Learn More!


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Monday- Sandwiches and pasta salad (steamed veggies and black bean soup for me since I am on WW)
Tuesday- Amazing Race with the Browns
Wednesday- Spinach Lasagna, salad and bread
Thursday- Beef Tips, rice, and green beans (Recipe taken from this blog)
Crock pot-spray with Pam
1 1/2 pounds stew meat
1 envelope Lipton Onion Soup
1 can cream of mushroom
1 cup Sprite
Mix all together an cook it on low all day.
Friday- Emily and I are leaving for her first shoot with Cotton Candy Shop!!!
Saturday- Crawfish with the Berthelots!!
Sunday- Tacos and all the fixin's with our small group!!


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Normaly she comes home every night.
- 1 dayVote A
- 2 daysVote B
- 3 daysVote C
- 4 daysVote D
- A weekVote E
- Results pleaseVote F
- A monthVote G
Most Helpful Girl
It all depends on the Cat and what could have happened and it could actually Be... Anywhere from a few days to even that night or even a Month... Maybe never.
I say this because with owning many felines, the ones that disappeared on me were as Follows:
Little Leo died that night due to a racoon attack and we found him the very next day.
Sammy was M. I. A. for nearly a Month and realized he may have gotten Trapped in someone's garage or somewhere he could not escape from.
Blackie just never Returned Period and we assumed as beautiful as she was, that someone had stolen her.
If she has this Routine of 'Comes home every night' then something has Prevented her from doing so. Please, check and call for her all over, ask anyone who may have spotted her. You didn't say How long she was gone and all you can do now her, dear Is... Hope and pray.
Good luck and I will say a prayer for you as well. xx10|10|0


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Hi guys! This is my best friend's story, which she sent to me and allowed me to publish, so all credit to her! Grasspool and Blackstorm are hers, Rainfall is mine, no stealing please! I hope you enjoy :3
Ominous dark grey clouds hung overhead, preparing to release their burden of icy rain upon the unsuspecting cats of the forest. Grasspool saw it as a promise of life-giving water from silver clouds. Occasionally, it seemed as though he was the only cat amongst his clan that enjoyed it. That was silly, of course - what about the she-cat who was named after it?
She hid in Starclan's tears deftly; if he was lucky he could see her eyes surveying the current scene before her, two cerulean-grey orbs amongst the rain. While her clanmates slipped and slid across the wet grass, she would pad across the clearing with an air of elegance. The silver of her claws appeared to be slivers of falling rain, until they met the flank, face or belly of her enemies. She adored the rain - no, she was the rain, the ruler of the sky's tears.
Rainfall, the most perfect cat Grasspool had ever laid eyes on (despite her feisty attitude).
There she was, just across the clearing, nuzzling against the ebony side of Blackstorm. When the hell had that happened, anyway? That didn't matter now; what mattered was resisting the urge to sink his claws into the tom's throat.
Let it rain, Grasspool prayed. Please let it rain.
Perhaps he would manage to lure her away from that rat of a cat with the rain?
The first drop of water collided with the alabaster tom's sensitive nose. At last, it began to rain, lightly battering his back with cool water, as if asking him, Are you ready?
He flicked a silver-tipped ear in a silent answer, Yes.
The light drizzle quickly grew into a downpour, and his clanmates raced for shelter, laughing and mewing to each other.
His viridian gaze immediately surveyed the camp for the small, lithe form of Rainfall, and spotted Blackstorm sheltering her underneath a clump of tall, broad-leafed ferns.
As the happiness behind her sapphire-silver eyes died, fury began to burn brightly behind his own grassy stare.
That bastard! How dare he do such a thing to her? Everyone who paid the slightest bit of attention to the pretty she-cat knew she thrived in the rain, and he was taking her from it! She belonged out free with the rain, with her element, with him - couldn't anyone see that?
"You look like you command the rain."
His snowy ears swiveled to catch her melodious voice; it seemed as though she had snuck up behind him whilst he had been overwhelmed with his enraged thoughts.
Grasspool threw a half-hearted smile over his shoulder at Rainfall, "No, I don't command the rain. I merely speak its language."
She hadn't been expecting that, judging the way her ears pricked and how her soulful blue-grey eyes widened ever so slightly with surprise.
Blackstorm had arrived just as she had opened her jaws to reply.
"C'mon, Rainfall," The ebony tom shepherded her away, towards the warriors' den. "Let's go, you'll catch green cough if you stay out here in the rain any longer!"
"A-alright…" Rainfall hesitated for a brief moment, uncertain, before she allowed the tall tom to lead her away. "I'll see you later, then, Grasspool."
Blackstorm sent a threatening glare over his shoulder at the snowy tom, and Grasspool retaliated quietly, revealing pristine fangs in the beginnings of a snarl.
He watched the she-cat's little, agile form disappear into the bramble den. The urge to lay down with his broken heart and allow the soothing rhythm of the beloved rain to lull him to eternal slumber was far too tempting to resist.
And so he laid down, rested his head upon his snowy paws and slept.


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Manchester, NH
Learn WordPress Freelancing or to Manage Your Own Website65/hour
...it fits into the big picture. I am NOT tutoring in hard core programming services! My training is designed for the freelance website design student or business owner who wants to leverage the power of self-hosted... read moreSee Tutors Like This


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At Golden Temple Hotel, you will find the smartest combination of modern, minimalist accessories and Khmer insertions. From this perspective, it is the best option for tourists who want to experience the nice part of Cambodia both outside and inside the hotel. It's fancy, yet discreet, it's modern, yet you can feel the touch of French colonialism.
Moreover, the interior decorators at Golden Temple Hotel don't stop after choosing an exquisite color scheme; they make sure they integrate functionality in the context, so that you won't get overwhelmed by useless decorations.
One meal at Golden Temple restaurant will give you an idea about how Cambodian cuisine can get really special. Prices are a bit steep, but you get what you're paying for: elegance and attention to detail.
Advertising an impressive list of amenities, there are not many negative things one could say about this hotel, and one thing is certain: even if you won't be fully satisfied (given that you won't be able to solve a potential contextual problem), you can't get wrong if you book here. And don't forget to ask for a room with a 32'' LCD TV.


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Because Li's father has lost his fortune in Malaysia, he reluctantly asks his daughter to become a ghost bride to a rich family whose son has recently died. While this is a strange arrangement, the marriage will mean she has a home for life. Continue reading "Yangsze Choo's — The Ghost Bride"
Janice P. Nimura's — Daughters of the Samurai
Five Japanese girls were sent by their government to the U.S.A. in 1871 to learn Western ways. While they were raised traditionally at home, they grew up as typical schoolgirls in their new country. Three of the girls: Sutematsu, Shige and Ume; returned after ten years to try to change women's education in Japan. Continue reading "Janice P. Nimura's — Daughters of the Samurai"
You've finished your first draft, then what?
I share my work with a writing critique group, but no matter how much I value their input and the help they've given me to improve the piece I've brought, they don't know the entire manuscript. Continue reading "You've finished your first draft, then what?"
Anosh Irani's — The Parcel
This is the story of how Madhu, a hijra, survives in Mumbai's notorious red-light district. Madhu is too old for prostitution, so begs on the street until called for a special job when the parcel arrives. Continue reading "Anosh Irani's — The Parcel"
Hannah Kent's — The Good People
In an Irish village in the 1800s, Nora loses her daughter, then her husband before she hires Mary to help take care of her grandson. Because her grandson neither speaks nor walks at age four, she pleads with the priest for help, but he turns his back on her. The women of the village blame the boy for their troubles, so Nora seeks help from Nance who has the "knowledge." Continue reading "Hannah Kent's — The Good People"
Jen Sookfong Lee's — The Conjoined
After Jessica's mother dies, she discovers two dead girls hidden in her mother's basement freezer. Jessica cannot believe her mother might be responsible, remembering the number of children her mother helped foster. Continue reading "Jen Sookfong Lee's — The Conjoined"
Thinking of joining a critique group?
I've been working with writing groups for the last few years after struggling on my own for over a decade. My critique groups consist of authors at the beginning stages right up to those who have published a long list of books. Continue reading "Thinking of joining a critique group?"


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Opinion: What Generation?Leave a comment
September 24, 2012 by AJ Briones
If you would ask me if I am passionate about the next generation, I would most probably say yes… but I can never honestly say that reaching the next generation is more important for me to reach than the generation I belonged to. A lot of us have grown in the great mind-set that we are responsible for the next generation as Proverbs 22:6 says. Youth ministries sprout everywhere training young people to lead, share and evangelize other young people to Jesus. A lot of those who we have reached out may have belonged to families with either or both parents not following Jesus. And when the generation passes, what will happen to those not reached? Will there still be people out there to reach them since we are all so fascinated with the thought of reaching the next in line; the next leaders of the next generation as they may call them? This is my honest opinion in the matter.
Matthew 28:19-20 New International Version 1984 (NIV1984)
19 Therefore go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in[a] the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, 20 and teaching them to obey everything I have commanded you. And surely I am with you always, to the very end of the age."
I don't really know if I am supposed to do as some does. But what I know is that my generations regardless of its time is still in or has already passed still matters. I urge everyone right now to go out there and reach the next generation but with the reminder that we are called to reach all nations; and that includes the generation we belong to as well. OUR GENERATION MATTERS. LET'S MAKE IT COUNT. As far as I am concerned, I don't want anyone from my own ranks to get left behind as everyone advances forward.


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Ollie's Ski Trip : v. 1 Hardback
by Elsa Beskow
Six-year-old Ollie is given his first pair of real skis.
As soon as the snow begins to fall he heads off into the woods and meets sparkling Jack Frost, who shoos away damp Mrs Thaw.
Jack Frost takes him on an adventure to the palace of King Winter.
Ollie has a wonderful time in a huge snowball fight!
But will Mrs Thaw return too soon for Ollie to enjoy the snow?
- Format: Hardback
- Pages: 30 pages, colour illustrations
- Publisher: Floris Books
- Publication Date: 01/09/1989
- Category: Picture books
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Showing 1 - 1 of 1 reviews.
Review by AbigailAdams26
When six-year-old Ollie is finally given his first pair of real skis - something he has long anticipated - he can't wait for it to snow, so he can try them out. Setting out into the snowy woods, the first opportunity he gets, Ollie is befriended by Jack Frost, sees Mrs. Thaw (who is quickly driven away), and is taken on a visit to the icy, polar bear-guarded palace of the Winter King. Here he spends a day watching the king's assistants make everything from ski boots to skate blades, and joining in the workers' break-time play, before heading home. The story concludes with the eventual coming of Spring - as heralded by the reappearance of Mrs. Thaw - which is at first resisted by Ollie and his little brother (who want to keep playing in the snow), and then accepted and celebrated.It's hard to say, really, why I enjoyed Ollie's Ski Trip - first published as Olles Skidfärd in 1907 - so much more than the other Elsa Beskow picture-book (Woody, Hazel and Little Pip) I read today. Perhaps Ollie's tale felt more real to me, not because he was a "real" boy (as opposed to a forest brownie), but because his longing for a specific event - the coming of the snow - resonated with me? Didn't we all, as children, look forward to certain specific seasonal markers? Whatever the case may be, I found this a charming book, one which paired an engaging Winter story with delightful illustrations. Highly recommended to any young skiers and winter lovers, as well as to Elsa Beskow fans.
Also by Elsa Beskow | View all


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Brief Saved
by Connor Goicoechea
/ Posted: 7 months ago
I set out to create a minimal logo for a minimalist architecture hotel in Helsinki. This logo balances classic nordic design style with modern flat and material design. The brand is meant to feel sophisticated and upscale without being elegant or garish.
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How to Make French Macarons
Marie Asselin, Food Writer, Recipe Developer, Food Stylist
- 0.5x
- 1x (Normal)
- 1.25x
- 1.5x
- 2x
How to Make French Macarons: An Introduction1:51
Project Description2:10
The Anatomy of a Macaron1:54
The Do's and Don't of Macaron Making1:30
The Equipment You Need1:48
The Ingredients You Need1:14
Preparing the Almond/Sugar Mixture3:03
Making the Meringue3:08
Macaronnage: Incorporating the Almond/Sugar Mixture Into the Meringue3:12
Piping the Macaron Shells4:28
Baking the Macaron Shells2:07
Making a Basic Buttercream Filling2:12
Filling (and Storing) Macarons0:54
Get Creative! Flavor Inspirations0:47
Final Thoughts: Let's Get Baking!1:23
About This Class
LOOKING FOR THE CLASS RECIPES AND PRINTABLES? You'll find everything you need in the "YOUR PROJECT" section of the class.
French macarons are delicious and cute, but they are also notoriously finicky to make at home. The elegant meringue-based cookies, made popular by Ladurée in Paris, require method and patience to make, but they can be done in a home kitchen, and you don't even have to be an expert baker!
I've been making macarons for almost 7 years, and I've been advising budding macaron makers through my blog FoodNouveau.com for over 5 years, so I have in-depth knowledge of what can go wrong when you attempt to make them at home for the first time. This course describes the essential equipment you need, the important steps to follow, the techniques to master, and the potential pitfalls to avoid.
Skill level: This class is perfect for novice bakers who want to learn new skills, as well as for experienced bakers who are seeking to master a new, and impressive dessert.
Important Note: This class demonstrates the French method (as opposed to the Italian meringue method) for making macarons.
Class Projects 22 See All
151 of 151 students recommendSee All
Nice class, but a very important step in making macarons is missing which is slamming the baking tray after the macarons have been piped to remove air bubbles.
Finally able to make this delightful cookie after watching this very informative class! Family loved them! It is very helpful to hear the tips and details of what the dough should look like when macaronaging :) - thanks!
Marie is a food writer and translator, recipe developer, food stylist, and passionate cook with a weakness for sweets. Based in Québec City, she's a frequent traveler who loves chronicling her discoveries from around the world and sharing recipes inspired by her trips.
She is the voice behind food and travel blog Food Nouveau, the teacher of popular Skillshare class How to Make French Macarons, the author of dessert eCookbook Sweet Spot: Modern, Better-for-You Dessert Recipes, with Clever Tips to Bake (Mostly) Dairy Free, and Travel+Leisure's Québec City expert.
Let's Connect!


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Dove Go Fresh Antiperspirant is enriched with scents of pomegranate and lemon, leaving you with a clean, fresh feeling that lasts all day.
Disclaimer: Please refer to the ingredient list of the product before buying
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PTO Meeting Tonight!
May 25th
Time: 7:30 pm
Where: Community Room
Come catch up on PTO news, Meet the candidates for School Committee
Learn about the new Homework Guiding Principles
See you tonight!!
Announcements >
Announcements >
PTO Meeting Reminder!posted May 25, 2017, 10:31 AM by Laura Giuggio [ updated May 25, 2017, 10:32 AM ]


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Caleb Wins Again
Caleb Ewan has secured another win at the nationals- It was the second national winning for the rising Aussie star leading him to finish his last under-23 national with élan & flamboyance.
The NSW rider came up with a fantastic race and outsprinted the rivals in lead group winning on the esteemed 132.6 kilometers under-23 road racing championship at Buninyong, closer to Ballarat.
The win was a mighty follow-up of Ewan's dominating win a few days back in under-23 cycling national criterion.


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Home >> Home Office Adjustable Furniture Glide Leveling Feet 10mm Thread Dia 6 Pcs
- The leveling foot is for office or household light duty furniture with threaded sockets.
- Plastic round base design will do no harm and scratches to your floors.
- Easy to install of it and adjustable height as your require.
- This is typically used on conference room tables, heavier desks, restaurant furniture and point of purchase display racks.
|White,Silver Tone
|Net Weight
|Package Content
|6 Pcs x Furniture Glide Leveling Feet
|Product Name
|Furniture Glide Leveling Feet
|50 x 57mm/2" x 2.2"(D*H)
|Thread Size
|10 x 43mm/0.4" x 1.7"(Thread Dia*H)
|Base Size
|50 x 14mm/2" x 0.6"(D*H)
|Thread Diameter
Other Choice (in stock)
- 200M 656 Ft 28 AWG PCB Breadboard Wrapping Wire Cable Reel...
- $7.90
- Free Shipping


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Bijoux Dessert Stands
A mix of wood, marble and white washed iron, these footed stands are as elegant as they are useful. Your macaroons and cupcakes will never look prettier. Our most popular set to date. Available as a set or individually, inquiries welcome.
Inventory: Set of 8 – 2 wood three-tier, 1 large wood, 3 marble/wood, 1 all marble, 1 iron
Rental Fee: $15-25 per piece, $125/set of 8
Click on the side of the image to see more photos.
Dessert table, scattered throughout event, styled shoot.
Bellerose Urn Trio
White washed cast iron Urns. There's nothing like the real thing.
Dimensions: Large: 9″ tall, Mouth of opening 5.25″, Total Diameter, 8.75″
Dimensions: Small(2): 5″ tall, Mouth of opening 2.75″, Total Diameter 4.25″
Inventory: Set of 3
Rental Fee: $30/set of 3
Welcome, Accent Table, Bridal Suite, Sweetheart table, Head Table, styled shoot
Stanhope Bronze Candlesticks
The classic bronze candlestick, recreated with a modern edge. Oh, the places they'll go. Sets of 3: Small, Medium & Large
Dimensions: Small, medium, & large in a set
Inventory: 60/20 sets of 3
Rental Fee: $15/set of 3 or $175/set of 20
Concrete Taper Holders
"the coolest table top detail to hit Raleigh's event scene" – anonymous event planner
Dimensions: 6-1/2″ & 8-1/4″H Cement Taper/Tealight Holder, 3 Styles
Inventory: 60/20 sets of 3
Rental Fee: $15/set of 3
Marble Taper Trio
Available September 1, 2017. Classic marble gets a modern update: Geo shaping with soft edges.
Dimensions: 4″-6″H Marble Taper Holder, White, 3 Styles
Inventory: 24/8 sets of 3
Rental Fee: $15/set of 3
Marble Taper Holders
Dimensions: 3″ H
Inventory: 12
Rental Fee: $2 each
Grey & Black Marble Candle Holder
Available for events after September 1, 2017
Dimensions: 3″ H
Inventory: 24
Rental Fee: $2 each
Marbled Votive/Flower Holders
With their unique coloring and texture, the Marbled Votive/Flower Holders feature a range of warm ivory, copper, gold and gray tones that vary from piece to piece, and will beautifully complement styled events that range from nature inspired to classically elegant.
Dimensions: 4″H x 3″Diameter
Inventory: 60
Rental Fee: $25/set of 12 or $100/set of 60
Rose Gold Quartz Votives
Giving the look of rose quartz, these delicate rosy gems have a gold interior that illuminates a beautiful glow when lit. The octagon shape feels modern and feminine at the same time.
Dimensions: 3″H x 3″Diameter
Inventory: 48
Rental Fee: $15/set of 12 or $75/set of 48
Smoke Quartz Votives
Dimensions: 3.25″H
Inventory: 20
Rental Fee: $15/set of 10
Urban Rustic Votives
Dimensions: 3″ H
Inventory: 50
Rental Fee: $15/set of 12, $75/set of 50
Rose Copper Votive
Dimensions: 3″H x 3″diameter
Inventory: 20
Rental Fee: $15/set of 10
Malverne Antique Silver Tray
This beloved oval tray, steals the show every time. Gracious and lovely, she loves being styled up with beautiful invitations and the bride and grooms rings. Oh and her patina…
Dimensions: 22″W x 16″L
Inventory: 1
Rental Fee: $30
Ogston Vintage Trophy
One of our very favorite pieces. A stand alone piece, although if you want to get fancy, it has served as the perfect vessel for a mass of wild flowers, or a bottle of champagne.
Dimensions: 10″H, mouth of opening 6.5″
Inventory: 1
Rental Fee: $20
Sweetheart table, Welcome table, accent table, Bridal Suite, Cigar Lounge, styled shoot
Soiree Lanterns
With its cutout pineapple-inspired pattern, our Soiree Ceramic Lantern is as timeless as it is current. The soft creamy white satin glaze accentuates the lantern detail, while a gold interior, provides a glowing wash of candlelight. Your next evening soiree deserves these lovelies.
Dimensions: 8″H
Inventory: 10
Rental Fee: $8/each
Grey Green Vase
Dimensions: 6″Diameter, 8.75″Height
Inventory: 3
Rental Fee: $8/each
Round Glass Vase
Dimensions: 7″Diameter
Inventory: 6
Rental Fee: $6/each
Lisa Footed Marble Bowl
Our vintage footed Marble Bowl is named after a friend who was just as fancy and beautiful. This gem brings a sense of grace to array of different settings. The sweet marble doves are removable, if you are looking for a simpler look. Just like Lisa, she will make heads turn. Good vibes, peace and light comes with this beauty.
Dimensions: 11″Diameter x 10″H
Inventory: 1
Rental Fee: $35
We love her as the centerpiece of your gift table, welcome table or dessert table, or for a magnificent floral arrangement.
Gabriel Candelabra
Modern, dramatic. This authentic bronze beauty, holds 8 candles.
Inventory: 1
Rental Fee: $20


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MAGNESIUM is a key mineral in the human metabolism. Most of us don't get nearly our daily intake needed to enjoy our life to the fullest
MAGNESIUM helps support health, as well as nerve and muscle function. It also coverts food into "Cellular Energy". Cellular energy, also known as cell respiration, is created from MAGNESIUM being a component of the creation of ATP (Adenosine Triphosphate). ATP is a co-enzyme that transports energy to body cells for metabolism, and assists with cell reproduction. When ATP partners with MAGNESIUM it's considered MgATP, which is vital for various bodily functions, cell respiration, and energy.
Making the most of your day depends on having enough energy to do so. There are a lot of things that's can prevent your from sustaining MAGNESIUM in your body. Carbonated beverages flush MAGNESIUM out of your system, even though you consider yourself a healthy eater. Allowing yourself to eat refined sugars, candy, deserts, and cakes, can causes the body to excrete MAGNESIUM through the kidneys. The holidays can get a very stressful, and medical procedures such as surgery, can cause deficiency in MAGNESIUM. And already having a lack of MAGNESIUM worsens those problem.
The following have been shown to lower levels of MAGNESIUM in the body:
- Diuretics
- Heart medication
- Asthma medication
- Birth control
- Estrogen replacement
Seven or more alcoholic beverages per week lowers the levels of MAGNESIUM. Recommendation from most physicians when the complaints are muscle spasms, cramping, Fibromyalgia, eye-twitching and tics, are that the patients are showing the signs of MAGNESIUM deficiency.
Getting a good nights sleep, or not getting one, is reason enough to increase your consumption of MAGNESIUM.
Age plays a part, particularly when you are 55 years or older, you take in less MAGNESIUM from food sources compared to when you were younger.
Getting involved in what your body needs is key if you want that "up in the morning", "feeling great","what you got?","bring it on!" feeling everyday!
Spending all day at the amusement park, and partying until the next morning with that special someone, becomes so much fun and happiness which is good health for you as well.
Food choices can raise your level of MAGNESIUM. Watermelon and Cantaloupe are refreshing and taste great.
Snack on Almonds, Cashews, Pumpkin seeds, Sunflower seeds, pop them in your mouth at work, play or add them to a meal.
We all know we need green leafy vegetables, especially dark green vegetables. Not only are they full of MAGNESIUM, they are very beneficial to providing weight loss.
These are foods that will provide MAGNESIUM, and give you abundance of energy.
- Raspberries
- Spinach
- Black Beans
- Quinoa
- Oats
- Flax Seeds
- Tuna
- Broccoli
- Beets
- Brussels Spouts
- Papaya
- Tofu
- Rye
- Bell Pepper
- Basil
- Celery
- Legumes
- Water
Through sources and filling the gap with a supplement, you can achieve things you thought were out of reach. The recommended daily dosage for women under 30 is 310mg, and for women over 30 is 320mg.
MAGNESIUM gives you stamina, and endurance, for all of the fun that you can create for yourself. MAGNESIUM will assist with a good nights sleep, and will wake you up feeling refreshed and ready to tackle the world. MAGNESIUM it's a must have.


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Combining Coverage Required By Law with Excellent Service
Most employers (including physician and attorney offices) in New York State are required by law to provide benefits to employees who suffer a non-job-related accident or sickness. New York is one of six U.S. states that require employers to provide non-job-related disability coverage for their employees. The benefits provided are one-half of the employee's wages to a maximum of $170.00 a week. Benefits are payable for a maximum of 26 weeks in any 52 week period. There is a seven day waiting period before benefits are payable.
We offer a Disability Benefits Law program that provides the coverage required by law at a competitive premium through Standard Security Life Insurance Company. This ensures that your employees will have prompt, able service as part of a coordinated benefits plan.
(Information provided is a summary only. For complete termsand limitations, please refer to
the applicable Certificate or Policy of Insurance. Specimen copies available upon request.)


text: 755 Like Microsoft OneNote Good alternative? YES NO A digital notebook application that gives people one place to gather notes and information. . Free Mac Windows Android iPhone Windows RT ... Windows Phone iPad Apple Watch Android Wear Kindle Fire Support for styluses Auto-saving Cloud sync Handwritten Notes Hierarchical structure IFTTT integration Add a feature Can draw and erase lines in different colors, remove R or B from RGB image and set grid lines Guest • Mar 2016 Disagree Agree More Notebook and cloud integration, less actual files and universal software like Journal Guest • Nov 2015 Disagree Agree