text:
Australia's market in for a bumpy ride
If Wall Street corrects before the year is out, as many expect, the Australian market could drop hard and fast. We are in for a bumpy ride, writes Ian Verrender.
October 2014. Mark it in the diary. Sear it into the memory banks. For this could well be a major inflexion point in the global economy.
This month, America's central bank, the US Federal Reserve, will call a halt to the third and final instalment of its radical monetary policy experiment, known as quantitative easing, that so far has swelled the Fed's balance sheet from less than $US1 trillion in 2007 to almost $US4.5 trillion today.
That's the amount of cash it has pumped into the economy in an effort to jolt it back to life.
For whatever reason, October traditionally is a rocky month for markets. Meltdowns often occur around this month; the Great Crash of 1929, Black Monday 1987, the chaos that followed the Lehman Bros collapse in 2008 and the Greek debt crisis of 2011.
Once again, global markets are rumbling. The greenback has gone for a gallop, rising 7 per cent in the past few weeks. That's pushed commodity prices lower along with currencies such as ours.
Stock investors too have become jittery.
After a long period of steady rises and benign trading conditions, the Australian market in the past few weeks has surrendered all its gains for 2014, with a 6 per cent drop in September.
Wall Street is twitchy with most punters now wondering when, rather than if, there will be a correction. It has gone three years without one. That alone is highly unusual.
Does this herald the beginning of the end, a 2008 kind of collapse? Hardly. But we are in for a bumpy ride, one that is likely to get mighty uncomfortable when American authorities finally announce the inevitable - a rise in interest rates.
The best guess is June next year although March is also a possibility. But the markets won't wait until then to react. They're already sniffing the breeze.
For the past five years, global markets have been hugely distorted by the Fed's radical tactics - a heady concoction of financial adrenaline and methamphetamine - and now the time has come to embrace sobriety.
Has it worked? Sort of. America is back in growth territory. But it certainly isn't kicking arse with most of the employment growth in low end and low paying jobs. And the jury is still out on the long-term effects, particularly whether this vast cash injection will fuel an inflation break-out down the track.
Bubbles, meanwhile, have been forming in stock, bond and property markets around the globe.
Australian property is among the world's most expensive, China's property market is in meltdown and, let's be honest, the US economy's performance in recent years certainly doesn't justify Wall Street's relentless advance to new records.
Ever since America began its cash deluge, dumped on top of emergency interest rates that already had been hacked to zero, investors have been desperately seeking anything that would pay a yield, regardless of risk.
To a degree, that's precisely what the technocrats had in mind. Entrepreneurs taking risks usually results in economic growth. Unfortunately, a very large portion of the cash swilling through the system has been devoted entirely to speculation on financial and property markets rather than invested in the real economy.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the High Temple of Lucre, Wall Street. For more than three years, bond prices and stock prices have been in lockstep. That's unheard of. It is financial bipolar disorder on a gargantuan scale.
Investors usually choose one or the other. They pile into bonds when they think the economy is going down the toilet. They head for stocks when they believe the economy will boom.
Back at home, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has bemoaned the fact that so much cash has been directed towards property speculation rather than more productive uses.
America's emergence from five years of economic darkness was always destined to cause ructions as the market distortions unwound. But it now is being complicated by the spectre of Europe descending back into the mire.
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde last week expressed fears the Eurozone would sink into an extended period of low growth and high debt and unemployment. The "new mediocre", she called it.
Add the slowdown in China, civil unrest in Hong Kong and China's western regions, the implosion of Iraq and Syria, the rise of Russian militarism and a deadly outbreak of Ebola and financial market turbulence seems a foregone conclusion.
Australia was one of the few nations to sail through the financial crisis relatively unscathed. China saw to that. But the strong Australian dollar that came with the resources boom hollowed out the economy and our stock market now reflects that.
The local bourse is dominated by banks and miners. And both now are under pressure, which explains the dramatic decline in Australian stocks last month.
Commodity prices are heading south as the large mining houses continue to pump out more material while China - the major consumer - is scaling back its demand. It is part of an ongoing war of attrition the three biggest producers - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale - hope will eventually shut out the new entrants such as Fortescue.
Australian banks, meanwhile, now find themselves fighting a battle on three fronts after years of unimpeded earnings growth.
The first is the possible introduction of lending controls by the Reserve Bank and the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority in a bid to curb runaway housing prices.
The second is David Murray's Financial Services Industry Inquiry, which has raised the idea of far greater loan buffers than any of the major banks anticipated. The banks would have to put aside a hefty amount of capital to protect them from a repeat of 2008 financial crisis.
Both these restrictions would cut their earnings power. That means their share prices could shrink.
The third attack is from offshore investors who now see the US dollar heading higher, and the Australian dollar lower. While Aussie banks fork out good dividends, a weaker domestic currency means losses for offshore investors and many now are bailing before things get worse.
Unlike Wall Street, which has been punching through record levels all year, the Australian stock market hasn't come within cooee of breaching its November 2007 peak of 6873.
That lack of exuberance will be no protection when the inevitable rebalance on global markets begins. If Wall Street corrects before the year is out, as many expect, our market could drop even harder and faster.
Ian Verrender is the ABC's business editor. View his full profile here.
Topics: government-and-politics, business-economics-and-finance, markets, stockmarket
Comments (125)
Comments for this story are closed.
the yank:
06 Oct 2014 8:23:06am
If the markets are in for a bumpy ride then so is the economy ... usually some 6 to 9 months after there is a drop in the market.
The question that should be on people's minds is how is the LNP's efforts to take money out of the economy actually going to help.
06 Oct 2014 8:59:12am
"The question that should be on people's minds is how is the LNP's efforts to take money out of the economy actually going to help."
I think the question is how can the LNP (or ALP) afford not to balance the budget. At present I think we're in a perfect storm situation. The budget isn't in balance and it doesn't look like it will be for some time because of the squabbleing between vested interests. On the economic front we are losing our manufacturing sector and over reliance is being placed on selling raw materials.
In addition to the above I'm starting to wonder whether the traditional macro economic tools that are used to stimulate the economy will be as beneficial as the theory says. After all these tools were developed in an era when economies were far more "closed" than they are now. Sadly, one of the biggest problems with free and open trade is that when our trading partners have problems so do we. This is something that gets ignored during they "hype" of signing "freee trade" agreements. I'm sure that some time in the future the pendulum will swing back toward the protectionism side of the equation again.
In many respects I think the best thing that can happen for Europe is if the ECU is scrapped. Europe demonstrates the problem of attempting to tie too many disparate economies together. I suspect that some economic researcher will one day develop a hypothesis and model on the ideal size for an integrated economy. My bet is that it will be a heck of a lot smaller than the EU.
I think I might be feeling a bit negative today... We'll all be ruined.. Just call me Henrahan...
06 Oct 2014 12:54:29pm
What has the budget deficit got to do with the decline in our manufacturing?
The problem there is that we cannot compete with countries that have low labour and environmental standards. Hence the constant push by business to reduce them in the name of 'competitiveness'.
06 Oct 2014 1:20:15pm
"What has the budget deficit got to do with the decline in our manufacturing?"
Absolutely nothing. My point is we don't have just one problem, an unbalanced budget, we have many problems. And nobody in power seems to be overly concerned with finding solutions.
Although it could be argued that a strong value add sector domestically should lead to a greater level of revenue for the government through taxes and thus a lower deficit in the budget. But I admit it's a long bow to draw.
06 Oct 2014 9:06:19pm
If that is the case, why is Swtzerland powering ahead with manufacturing of high tech equipment sold around the world, especially to those developing countries. They have similar wages to Australia so your argument doesn't hold water. It is possible to compete with low wage countries, you just have to innovate and develop a highly skilled workforce, not just dig holes in the ground. And I just read today that BHP wants to be the leader in low cost iron ore production, thats just great, they want to sell off the finite resources even cheaper..now thats real clever.
06 Oct 2014 9:02:18am
"how is the LNP's efforts to take money out of the economy actually going to help."
What like the various poisonous traps that Labor left behind, unfunded?
Gonski? DNIS?
These are not and were not funded, so killing them off means they don't have to be yet more burdens.
Or do you mean all the industrial, academic and other welfare we can't afford?
We can't afford Holden, SPC or all the other companies who are nothing but a drag on the economy, and the people in them trapped by the welfare when they would be better off getting real work. the welfare there also stops money being spent wisely by governments on infrastructure that would free up industry to move product and resources more easily.
We have academic welfare, the grants merry go round that nothing comes out of except more opportunities for better grant submissions - no IP, no patents for world beating products, just more wealthy academics sneering at governments who would curtail their lifestyle.
We need to wean all these people off welfare of one type or another, they are all addicted to OPM, Other People's Money, like the unions and politicians are.
Taking money out of the economy is leaving in the pockets of earners who would better invest it than people who do not earn it and use it to garner favor.
You have it completely upside down as usual and think the recipients are more entitled to it than the people earning it.
The Jones Crusher:
06 Oct 2014 9:11:53am
"Taking money out of the economy is leaving in the pockets of earners who would better invest it than people who do not earn it and use it to garner favor."
Yeah.. right! So the Mining Tax has been abolished and mining companies are cutting jobs across the country! Does that sound like they are using the mining tax dollars left in their pockets and are investing in people to you?
You have it completely upside down as usual and think the recipients are more entitled to it than the people who own it.
06 Oct 2014 9:32:26am
Labor's mining tax didn't earn anything and the states still get royalties - don't you know how this works?
Jobs are being cut across the country in mining because the ned, the people who buy our minerals has declined, not because the mining tax has been cut.
How on earth do you tie those together, your logic is as flawed as the usual leftie trying to do the mental gymnastics to understand how the world actually works.
06 Oct 2014 9:48:25am
I imagine, ginny, that you are not saying that iron ore prices won't come back up : of course they will, that's how markets work, in cycles. If they don't we are all in trouble.
When the prices do increase we, sadly, won't have in place an MRRT to capture some of this bounty for the Australian economy ; thanks for that.
We have one point of agreement and that is that the MRRT as structured was allowing too many offsets and was not capturing in its early stages the revenue envisaged, the solution was to calibrate the MRRT not scrap it.
06 Oct 2014 12:41:14pm
Terry the iron ore market is in an oversupply situation and likely to remain so I expect. We need China or India to ramp up demand before we start to see iron ore prices revive and I am dubious the Chinese will start building homes and infrastructure on the scale needed to deal with all the extra supply coming onto the market. The cycles in minerals can be very long, maybe 50 years, going by the previous downtrend when the Japanese (mainly) did over our producers year after year.
Allowing for my pessimism I still think it is grossly inequitable for the Federal government to introduce new taxes to take all the cream of the few good years in the cycle that will justify the massive expense and risks involved. It isn't 'miners' that pay the MRRT, they are just a proxy for myriad shareholders, probably even you (mostly likely through a balanced superannuation fund). The minerals were never owned by the Commonwealth so I regard the RSPT and MRRT as basically theft. You no doubt see things differently.
06 Oct 2014 12:46:08pm
"Labor's mining tax didn't earn anything and the states still get royalties - don't you know how this works?"
Why the big stink and fuss about the tax? So, there was no harm...
06 Oct 2014 2:09:32pm
"Why the big stink and fuss about the tax? So, there was no harm..."
Because Abbott made a big song and dance over it and it became a big deal, just so he could get elected on a lie!
And those lies have continued ever since!!
06 Oct 2014 9:43:22am
Wake up Crusher, most people probably think a 'mining tax' is a good idea but the one negotiated and implemented was a disaster and that's what happens with too much haste and when the negotiators and I use that term loosely (on the government side at least) have no idea. You like everybody else know why the miners are cutting jobs, the backside has fallen put of prices so what else are they supposed to do, what would you do? I'm no friend of the miners but if they don't remain viable then less will have jobs.
The other bloke is dead right when he says that people in Australia who receive anything, believe they have a right to it before the people who earn it. This "what's yours is mine" mentality is killing this country and should never be confused with reasonable support for those who need it and not those who simply see 'taking' as easier that having to go get it and all that entails.
06 Oct 2014 10:56:11am
The "whats yours is mine" mentality seems to be mainly emanating heavily from Canberra, From there the filter down effect has transfered down this attitude.
When people see the waste and misuse of their, the Taxpayers hard earned money, little wonder they think why should I bother.
No I am not one of them, I worked over 50 years and paid a lot of tax, but I see their point of view, not a good example set by Canberra, lurks, perks, non contributary super, self elevated pay, travel scams, summer break, winter break,refunds on small donations at events, how petty, and then massive pensions on ejection and a seat on a board of a business they have favoured.
06 Oct 2014 11:10:38pm
Any responsible government would have modified the tax to make it work effectively, not scrapped it.
The libs work for multinationals, and just do their bidding.
We need a government that works for the people, not for their rich mates.
06 Oct 2014 9:54:57am
ginny: Some basic research would be appropriate before jumping to conclusions. Over production flooding the market is being purposefully done to force the smaller less efficient operators out of the market. The big 3 Iron ore producers are predatory pricing similar to Coles and Woolies in the milk industry to garner future market share. Its the industry that is cannibalising itself. Coal is very similar with too many producers and predatory policies. Please inform yourself prior to going into an automatic rant against what was a good tax and good policy.
06 Oct 2014 11:00:14am
No. No. cannibalizing each other what next. They don't over produce at all they supply a negotiated contract if the new contract is for less they wind down production and lay of staff.
If they can't sell at all like nickel for instance they close down, all their infrastructure is paid for and written off.
Stuffed Olive:
06 Oct 2014 10:23:00am
That's one of the biggest loads of codswallop I've ever read. Full of contradictions and crazy crazy statements. Are you, in the end, saying it is wiser to spend money on wars?
06 Oct 2014 11:03:25am
About wars. No matter who is in government LNP or Labor will support the USA that's a given and the Greens would not, but the Greens will never be in government will they.
Caffettierra Moka:
06 Oct 2014 2:16:35pm
No. The Cold War showed us that it is best to have a government committed to spending huge amounts of money on buying and maintaing armies and munitions that they NEVER use. The USA enjoyed two decades of prosperity when created a massively expensive war-machine but didn't use it actually fight a war. It did create dependence in the companies and communities that relied on it, but government spending programs = prosperity.
06 Oct 2014 11:44:51am
My sentiments exactly. There are so many on this site and in our country who think that they are entitled to what someone else earned.
And so many who want all the upside of guvvament decisions, but want that other bloke to be the one to make all the sacrifices.
Val Doxan:
06 Oct 2014 12:27:37pm
"who think that they are entitled to what someone else earned"
So how do we actually determine what an individual "earns". Is it the monetary value they add to the economy? Is it the monetary value they add to the economy after considering all the subsidies (e.g social security, corporate welfare, tax avoidance etc).
What about the intangible factors?
What, for example is the "value" of someone who looks after the elderly worth? Not much if you look at the pay rates. What value then is it to our society to have people looking after the elderly or would the majority rather they just perish in the wider economic interest? Should only poor elderly people perish?
We need to be very careful with terms like "earned", "value", "entitlement" and worth, because pure economic markets are not, and never have been solutions to societal betterment, only tools in a capitalist system.
06 Oct 2014 1:05:07pm
Val Doxan
I mean people who think that other's earnings should be redistributed to them.
People who would rather complain about how that other bloke doesn't "deserve" what he's got, and therefore is should be redistributed to "me", instead of improving their incomes through studying, moving to take a better job, actually saving, and so n...
06 Oct 2014 12:58:13pm
A lot of the money that the rich 'earn' is just income that accrues because they already have wealth (return on investment). No work required.
06 Oct 2014 1:15:50pm
So what if it is? It's still theirs. My gripe is against those who simply won't seek to improve themselves and their prospects, but want their lot improved by having a slice of someone else's pie redistributed to them by the guvvament.
That is greed, wanting someone else's money, instead of seeking to earn your own.
06 Oct 2014 2:46:50pm
So AE you don't actually care whether or not people really "work" for their money, as long as that money doesn't come from the government.
At least not directly, since, of course, all our money at one point came factory fresh from a government mint.
06 Oct 2014 4:59:34pm
That's right Ann, nobody has a right to look at what someone else has and say "they don't deserve it", providing that it was acquired by legal means.
I know that that's a concept that a lot of commenters on this site just can't abide, though. For many, everybody who has anything got it by ripping off some poor soul, never by their own efforts or risk-taking.
06 Oct 2014 2:52:24pm
It still comes from someone. Usually a powerless renter or a retrenched worker.
Greed is selfishly taking from others less fortunate than yourself. I don't think struggling to live on an allowance that is below the poverty line could be classified as greed.
06 Oct 2014 4:57:42pm
We both agree that greed is seeking something that others have without their consent. I'm sorry, but is a landlord expecting rent "greedy"? Should I let my tenants stay for free?
Tenants, to use your example, are there of their own free will, us having agreed on a rent - nobody held a gun to their or my head. We agreed to that freely, and we both get something out of the arrangement. That's capitalism.
06 Oct 2014 5:09:06pm
That's fine AE, but you seem to be ignoring the role of power, ideology, bubbles and market manipulation that all distort the wages market. Seriously, if you believe talent and market forces purely decide wages then I have a wonky bridge to sell you.
06 Oct 2014 5:37:49pm
Hi RobW
How are wages being manipulated?
06 Oct 2014 7:31:13pm
Cheap credit and consecutive asset bubbles have been both propping up and distoring Western economies for over a decade now. Who would you say has most profited from QE in the US? If markets are being distored then so are earnings and wages. More specifically, if governments in Australia removed half the tax and social security conessions on property (and treated it like any other asset) do you really think people in the banking and real estate industries would be earning as much as they currently do? Property is a protected beast in Australia, which a lot of people profit off.
06 Oct 2014 12:44:58pm
?nfunded expenditure" interesting how education and health issues are always mentioned. How about 1.2 Billion for our "security" and yet another war?
the yank:
06 Oct 2014 3:16:10pm
"You have it completely upside down as usual and think the recipients are more entitled to it than the people earning it."
Well ... er, no. Having lived the life in a society that tries its best to do things the way in which you describe I've found that such an approach leads to divisiveness and class warfare.
I've found that building a society that looks after those in need helps us all. I guess I believe in Team Australia. And as is often said there is no 'I' in the word team.
Corny, but true.
06 Oct 2014 11:01:44pm
"Gonski? DNIS? These are not and were not funded, so killing them off means they don't have to be yet more burdens."
Killing of the disadvantaged, the weakest and most vulnerable seems to bee the only solution the libs and their supporters can come up with. It's a greed driven political ideology that seethes with hatred.
It's time we stopped the selfish and in-empathetic cheating lying and scheming for the short term gains that only benefit the wealthy and started making some effort to work towards building a real future for our coming generations.
Stamp out the greed.
In the nineties they tried to convince us it was good, and now the same leaches try to convince us that aspiring to social equality is bad.
07 Oct 2014 8:05:41am
The LNP are spending money faster than the ALP did, and they don't have any thing in place for what they are spending, just the age old cry blame labor, well the amount on money they will have to find now to keep at war is astronomical and the money wasted searching for a plane no one really knows where it is would also be better spent at home, As for that cry about other peoples money, where was the outrage when we the pensioners of today were supporting your parents or grandparents, The only thing you have pointed out correctly is that politicans are very adapt at taking other peoples money , even with high excessive wages they still like to dip the fingers into the honey pot. They claim they are intitled to it, well I don't think so, and TEAM AUSTRALIA is taking us to the bottom of the barrel very fast.
Think first...:
06 Oct 2014 2:35:57pm
I don't disagree with you Yank, now is probably not the best time to be taking money out of the real economy - but there is a second question - will the government (either persuasion) have any choice?
If, as the article is suggesting, the Aus Dollar drops and the US bond rate rises above zero, the cost of debt to the Australian Government will also rise - Governments don't set interest rates, bond holders do. If there are less people buying government debt, the cost to the government goes up.
What we will likely see is a large increase in the interest on government debt, hence a large cost to simply service what is already there. Add to this that any stimulus this time round will be funded by new debt on top of old debt - which will make it much harder to fund and justify - and a decrease in tax take and government finances will become extremely tight.
All of these things move in cycles. At the moment Australia is an artificially wealthy country that has lost sight of the important things over having material things. We are right at one extreme of capitalism.
I believe that the correction is coming - and it will be painful. People will lose material possessions. I also believe that TA will be the next one term PM - but I don't think the incoming Labor Government will have the option to do anything about it either - they will have the same problems. No cash reserves, large (and growing) debt, higher interest bills and low tax revenues.
In short - don't worry about what the government is doing, take the opportunity now to reduce your own debt, and get ready for the correction. Don't assume it won't effect you, its usually people who don't expect it who take the biggest hit.
the yank:
06 Oct 2014 5:08:42pm
"will the government (either persuasion) have any choice?" ... I don't see why not. Our debt level is very modest.
Yes we will pay more to service that debt but the choice as I see it is to grow the economy or starve it.
If we have a significant increase in unemployment, I've read that it could go up to 10%, there will be even further decline in our incoming revenue plus more demand on the expenditures.
Interesting point, is Australia an "artificially wealthy country"?
Maybe it is my own circumstances I am not sure but I have never felt poor in Australia while I have numerous times in the USA. So I really don't want to go down the path a slicing and dicing 'entitlements' because I see that as heading down a slippery USA style slope.
I totally agree that people should make a real effort to take control of their debt, Australians really doing some heavy lifting in that area. And be smart. If you have investments which are keeping you up at night get rid of them now.
gerard oosterman:
06 Oct 2014 8:25:54am
The property bubble will burst but I doubt the stock market will collapse. A return of over 5% on quality stock dividends and a growing ageing pensioner army of investors getting the 30% franking credit on top will ensure a cap will be kept on the stock market.
With a rise in unemployment and the reckless spending of billions on wars and a few thousand hapless refugees this government would commit electoral suicide raising interest rates.
No, rest assured folks, the market will steam along nicely. No worries.
06 Oct 2014 8:41:50am
Government do not raise interest rates!
gerard oosterman:
06 Oct 2014 11:25:15am
The Reserve Bank sets monetary policy including interest rates. The RB is owned 100% by the Commonwealth of Australia.
06 Oct 2014 11:47:05am
The board of RBA is independent, they make the rate decisions.
gerard oosterman:
06 Oct 2014 12:54:27pm
Yes, that is so but at the same time;
Its duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. . The RBA provides certain banking services as required to the Australian Government and its agencies. While the Government does not set interest rates directly, it does indirectly so through the RBA. The RBA is responsible to the treasurer who appoints the Board.
Sea Monster :
07 Oct 2014 8:00:53am
The RBA was made substantially independent on rates by Hawke-Keating. It is widely acknowledged that they made the 1990's recession substantially worse by ignoring its rates decisions for political expediency. This gave impetus to full independence under Costello. Since full independence there have been several instances of the government arguing against rises being ignored by the RBA.
This attitude frustrates sensible discussion, Gerard. And I think lands you in a lot of hot water in online discussions. You got it wrong, admit it and move on. These interesting facts, that anyone can read on Wikipedia, have nothing to do the fact that your first point was wrong. Doubling down like this frustrates people.
06 Oct 2014 8:47:39am
Wow, just wow .. head in the sand time
In Australia property markets have never burst, they have slowed but never "burst"
The share market in Australia has crashed regularly.
Why do you think a growing army of investors will keep the stock market from crashing?
Because they are getting 5% on stock dividends and a 30% franking credit?
Do you have any clue how stock markets work?
Is this a joke?
Sea Monster:
06 Oct 2014 10:35:46am
I think you're making the same comment. You're both just making predictions that ultimately neither of you have sufficient evidence to make. No one has sufficient evidence.
If anything your's is less sensible because it relies on historicism. It suffers from an induction/chicken/turkey problem. Just because a something hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't.
06 Oct 2014 5:42:04pm
These comments indicate short term memory. The Aussie property market has crashed periodically, and crashed spectacularly. Following one crash it took 59 years for prices to recover. That's not a typo: 59 years!! Not even an immigration rate 30 times higher than our immigration rate today was enough to drive property prices up. There were Australians who lived their entire lives never knowing house price appreciation.
This is instructive because it wasn't about supply and demand then and it's not about supply and demand now. Today's malaise is caused by credit growth and given that we are on the tip of the largest property boom in Australian history there is nothing ambiguous about what comes next.
History books of the future will talk of a great evil of the early 21st century. They might refer to it as 'debt slavery' and they wont be kind to the bankers who made themselves rich while committing so many to misery.
Sea Monster:
06 Oct 2014 7:05:16pm
Well there's that too. I didn't know enough about it to comment. I was going to ask for a definition of 'bust'.
07 Oct 2014 7:55:50am
Debt Slavery, Financial Subservience or as the law calls it ... Maladministration. It doent really matter as no-one is listening and as stated in a previous post there is no courage or vision to reform. Yes my friends, if you thought a class action on bank fees is big, wait till there is an investigation on the predatory lending practices of mortgage lending are revealed.
If only someone would stand up and roadmap a economic future .. warts and all .. without the need for duplicity and lies prevalent with the current political environment.
Sea Monster :
07 Oct 2014 8:32:09am
My advice to acknowledge debt slavery. Don't do debt. Not for anything. Not even real estate.
Got myself into hot water once with real estate. Never again.
Don't do debt.
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 8:35:16am
Ever since the Mining Companies managed to become poor to avoid the Mining Tax I've feel quite sceptical about these big economic protestations, and the Budget is no exception.
06 Oct 2014 8:43:16am
So really, the theory that you pump prime an economy by massive injections of cash by the government to get it out of the doldrums, doesn't seem to work does it?
It's great for those handing it out, it's great for those getting the huge cheques, but it doesn't flow down, it doesn't start industry
Keynesian theory doesn't work, and yet foolish people continue to follow it and wonder what goes wrong, never realising their underlying economical tools are flawed.
Governments picking winners is always going to be a losing game since all they are doing is picking those astute enough to make their "grant" application look better than others.
There's all the freeloaders with magical schemes, that will transform society, like wind and solar power.
The markets and economy would be better off if the government left the money int he hands of capable people, i.e. those who earned it, to make decisions about where they spend it.
Government should keep to infrastructure and the shared things, like schools and hospitals, rather than trying to do something they are not skilled at.
Oh, BTW, those people who think investing in property is a big bubble, are going to feel pretty stupid if the share market does a collapse and all their money is in there!
At least property investors still have, bricks and mortar.
The Jones Crusher:
06 Oct 2014 9:19:13am
"Keynesian theory doesn't work, and yet foolish people continue to follow it and wonder what goes wrong, never realising their underlying economical tools are flawed."
Really? So the Quantitative Easing in the USA hasn't worked, then?
06 Oct 2014 9:34:34am
No it hasn't .. the economy there is where it would have been without quantitative easing, moderate growth, mainly from their tax system being much friendlier to entrepreneurs.
The Jones Crusher:
06 Oct 2014 9:50:30am
So you haven't read all the previous articles by Verrender and Kohler here alluding to the QE pushing up the DJIA?
06 Oct 2014 4:40:08pm
While in the liquidity trap most investors are forced to buy shares or property. Bonds are a bad buy. May as well keep the cash as it is usable.
Even those buying shares are beginning to have doubts now.
Until something gives it is anyones guess as to how this experiment will play out but I doubt inflation will occur.
While ever wages continue to fall in real terms and job insecurity ( oops flexibility) is occurring the average Joe and Jane will save a bit and have a meal out with the mates.
The wealthy haven't woken up to the fact that the money doesn't miraculously trickle down to the consumers who keep the economy chuffing along. Right now it's out of money and the bit those wealthy are flinging at property and shares isn't helping much simply creating a bubble.
It is all making the experienced investor very nervous indeed.
A liquidity trap can be helped by government but not one that doesn't understand it. With all this talk of balancing budgets and raising taxes I wonder if they realise just how expensive a first rate Depression can be?
06 Oct 2014 9:58:10am
Really mick, look at history then say like the Great Depression then get back to us will you.
I'd sooner have a society where people actually work and have money flushing through the economy rather than the brakes being put on and watching business after business collapse or people thrown out of their houses because they don't have a job.
Then again its the conservative types who like to tell us they're lifters when in actual fact they're mostly leaners.
Sea Monster:
06 Oct 2014 9:46:01am
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't quantive easing a Monetrist policy not Keynsian?
Maybe it worked but has it been worth it? Have they not built themselves a house of cards?
06 Oct 2014 12:05:56pm
@Sea Monster
As I understand it you're right. The aim of QE was to increase the money supply by buying up long dated bonds. In its purest form Keynesian theory states the what you need is a low interest rate environment with increased aggregate demand through government spending.
There is a question as to the effectiveness of QE in that it may have lead to asset inflation (like the DJA increasing) but has it led to greater investment in productive assets? In the US there probably has been a flow on effect. This is because they still have a fairly large industrial sector.
In my view an economy has to have a "productive" or "value add" sector for any wealth effect from lower interest rates to be of value. If we, in Australia for example spend all of this new found wealth on goods made overseas who are we benefitting in the long run?
06 Oct 2014 1:07:53pm
I think the aim of QE was to push money out of the bond markets. Whether that increased economic activity or just led to asset inflation in other areas is debatable.
And on the plus side it has reduced government debt (if you don't count the government bonds that are now owned by its own Federal reserve as debt).
06 Oct 2014 11:51:32am
Good points, agree 100%. And what about how people accuse those who save and work hard, but just want to be able to keep more of what they earn of being "greedy".
But yet so many look at what someone else has, from working and studying and saving and investing, and declaring, outraged, that that person doesn't "deserve" it. No, they're just greedy, so the guvvament should take what they've got and redistribute to me - that's not me being greedy though, I just "deserve" it. Just because.
06 Oct 2014 5:28:16pm
The Government does choose winners by who gets purchasing contracts, who gets contracts with the government , interest rates , industry policies , industrial relations laws , free trade agreements just about everything Government does is about choosing winners and losers if you don't understand this I pity you. The Neo-cons don't want to admit this as this shows we don't have a free market by one that is regulated to favour the biggest businesses and the renter industries rather than industry that really creates jobs and increase GNP rather than importing GNP through migrants as we do now.
This Government for most part chooses the winners to be overseas multi nationals and large companies in Australia who donate to the LNP coalition after all if our political donation system has the rate of return as the American system political donations have a return of 5000% for business.
Caffettierra Moka:
06 Oct 2014 8:00:14pm
"Government should keep to infrastructure and the shared things, like schools and hospitals, rather than trying to do something they are not skilled at"
I''d rather that they did stuff like maintain police forces, fire-depts and first-rate health facilities throughout the nation. Also that they maintain customs and border control to stop illegal drugs, weapons and dangerous items/animals in. Also, keep a system of courts running that allows us get redress for wrongdoings and to discourage criminal behaviour. That is actually very expensive and places great responsibilities on the people tasked with doing it. And that is why we have governments not a bunch of corporate types getting access to the nation's piggybank. Think about it, the Packer's know their way around money and what do they do with it? Build casinos.
06 Oct 2014 8:50:28am
Does this mean we should be wary of buying shares in Medibank from the Abbott government? We all remember what happened to Telstra shares after Australians were seduced by the Howard/Costello government. Is it a good time for our government to be selling off the assets of Australian taxpayers? I don't know, I'm just asking.
06 Oct 2014 11:52:18am
Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware. Nobody put a gun to anybody's head and ordered them to buy.
Val Doxan:
06 Oct 2014 12:40:53pm
"Does this mean we should be wary of buying shares in Medibank from the Abbott government?"
You should always be very wary of buying anything from a government, particularly the Abbott government.
06 Oct 2014 2:22:41pm
Just buy the shares....don't even bother reading the prospectus..sell on the first day when they go up 5-10%...political poison if the price goes down - or a vote buying winner if the price soars...I know where I've got my gambling chips.
06 Oct 2014 1:07:59pm
I agree with AE Darren. If you are prepared to take the chance that Medibank Private will be a good investment have a look at it, otherwise leave it alone. I have pre-registered my interest but at this stage no one can say if it will be a good deal or not, no details have been released. I suspect there are a lot of costs that can be cut out of the company's operations and it has a good market share so I think it is worth having a look at it. There are a lot of risks involved as well. Hopefully these will be priced in. The institutional investors will put pressure on the government to sell the shares as cheaply as they can. It seems if all the institutional investors say a privatisation is overpriced that is a good signal to buy (Aurizon, Healthscope although the latter wasn't a sale by a government).
The government is trying to get the best price it can and is hoping to sell into a strong market. Fair enough, they are acting as responsible custodians of taxpayers' moneys. The process is a long one and they can't time it with any precision. If you are buying for the long term price should not be so important. If you are a trader you must consider things in a stronger light, up close. I would suggest you preregister. It costs nothing and does not commit you to follow up. When you get the prospectus you should have time to read and consider. Get advice. If you feel more comfortable with property or money in the bank go that way. If you are happy with the risks and rewards offered by the sharemarket hedge your risks by diversifying. I like shares. I buy over the long term (in theory), gradually building up my holdings. Lessens the risk of putting too much money in at the peaks.
EM Laidly:
06 Oct 2014 9:07:39am
To save on infrastructure costs, ASX and Crown Casino should be merged.
Peter of Melbourne:
06 Oct 2014 10:58:16am
to save on electoral costs to the Australian taxpayer the incompetent Labor party and their psycho Greens Party partners should be merged.
06 Oct 2014 1:35:37pm
No prizes for second Pete
Caffettierra Moka:
06 Oct 2014 2:19:54pm
To make for easy identification, the state Liberal branches should merge with the Property Council of Australia.
06 Oct 2014 3:23:59pm
Can the Liberals and the Nationals finish their merger like they have in Queensland?
Stuffed Olive:
06 Oct 2014 9:16:15am
A Verrender article which will provide an excellent reference as we see how things unfold here and abroad over the next year. Best to diversify I reckon.
06 Oct 2014 9:37:18am
The current climate reminds me of the period from the oil shocks to the 1983 recession. A period where many wrong decisions where made just like the last 12 months. Back then we had a credit crisis. It created a huge problem. double digit inflation, unemployment and interest rates. Officially interest rates were 13.5% as they were capped. Banks didn't lend at that rate and those who could get a loan ended up with cocktail loans where the real rates for housing were around 21% and for businesses nearer to 30%.
Could it happen again, you bet, the last budget demonstrates this. The wrong budget for this time in the cycle. Like 1983 we have the wrong person as Treasurer.
Then again maybe we need a recession, no one under 40 has actually had to work through one.
As for housing It would be a good thing if it collapse back to say 2004 levels, well in Sydney at least.
06 Oct 2014 9:44:50am
thats an amazing prediction, the stock market is going to fluctuate....mmmm
Applaudanum :
06 Oct 2014 11:17:41am
Give him a break, he did say 'If...'.
So I suppose that means they could fluctuate, or they could stay steady. It's all very 'uncertain', we just don't know what will happen and that's just too scarey to contemplate. Previous generations existed amidst uncertainty, yet the current lever-pullers seem to go into great doubt-filled binges of prognostication, trying to make sense of it all. It's as if everyone is waiting for someone else to make the first move before they themselves try to do anything.
One thing is certain: 'uncertain' markets foster an increase in speculative prognostication.
Steve F:
06 Oct 2014 9:48:01am
Nobody (including "professional" investors) understands how the market works. It's a giant casino, where people put their money on red or black on the wheel. The thing that makes the difference is the amount of money involved in the bet. If Ma and Pa investors switch from red to black with their few thousand, nobody cares. But, if a couple of billion is moved from black to red by a big punter, the rest follow.
Sorry, folks. There's no science to the market. Just herd mentality.
06 Oct 2014 11:24:25am
The market works in theory, but it has been so distorted by investment banks that it is next to useless.
It used to be for company founders to raise capital to expand. Now it's for company founders to cash in and let the gamblers risk other people's money in the aftermath. It's where money goes to play and fluctuations have more to do with the mood of investors and the media than the actual worth of the companies.
06 Oct 2014 1:20:33pm
Sharemarket = not for you.
The market accommodates all investors with their diverse perspectives, needs and timeframes. The traders are vastly outnumbered by long term investors. Pump and dump is not a big feature of our market. Not at the moment anyway.
Caffettierra Moka:
06 Oct 2014 2:57:09pm
I could hire a chimpanzee to make accurate 'predictions' about the market, they would probably match any of the experts. And the market fails all the time and turns investors in paupers.
Here's one example; when Enron finally managed to drag itself into the bankruptcy courts in 2001 it was discovered that they had managed to lose $74 billions of shareholders money in the previous four years. The only inkling that shareholders got that something was wrong was in the share price dramatically fell in the last 8 months of trading.
Yes, they could have made an 'informed decision' to sell earlier if they had the same information as the CEO of the firm. He sold his stake in the company in Jan 2001 (ie just before the price tanked). What do you think might have been his motive and do you think that he was going to share that information with the shareholders of the company?
06 Oct 2014 5:15:29pm
Dartboards regularly do quite well in a competition against analysts Caff. So what? You either accept the level of risk in the hope of greater rewards or you do not. If every company was an Enron there would quickly be no sharemarket. If you invest solely in one company or one sector of the market you are choosing a high risk option.
I am not proselytising for shares. Use your own judgment and don't do anything that will compromise your sleeping patterns.
Caffettierra Moka:
06 Oct 2014 7:24:22pm
There are Enrons because the entire system is rigged. No, not every listed company is going to collapse like Enron, but every one of them is going to place 'positive outcomes' ahead of other factors like shareholder value or employees.
Actually once a company finds out it can move operations overseas to take advantage of non-organised cheap labour, they do. Once a company discovers it can incorporate in Ireland or the Bahamas to avoid tax, they do. Once they discover they can lobby the government to become lax* about public safety and their liability for accidents, they do. And what does the sharemarket's response to any of those actions. It REWARDS them for it. Share-prices rises!! Bonuses for everyone!
*sorry; 'implement long overdue reforms within the industry'
06 Oct 2014 10:17:42am
Ian, what your article overlooks is that the strong aus$ was in the main due to the high interest rates set by the RBA. Oz interest rates were and are still much higher than the rest of the world economies therefore Oz was a great place for foreigners to invest. The RBA has made quite public that it expected the $ to weaken with lower interest rates. But the question that is continually overlooked is that why did Oz interest rates go up relative to the rest of the world economies in the first place. The RBA in the past has publicly stated that the reason for interest rate increases were to limit housing price increases. Housing prices have increased by demand continually outstripping supply as a consequence of Australia's historically high levels of population growth, 60% of population growth was from invited immigrants (240,000 pa). Immigration policy of Liberal and Labor governments since 2000 has been the root cause of many distortions in the Australian economy. For example unaffordable housing and decline of Australian manufacturing. Why is it that "media" economists rarely (never) incorporate impacts of population growth policy in their articles?
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 10:19:38am
People can go a bit nutty when they get a bit of power, start thinking that their employees or even the Australian People are like their racehorses start trying to make them get on the track and race each other, it can be pretty stressful to have a nutty boss in charge of things generally they settle down a bit after everyone refuses the hay and having their shoes nailed on.
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 10:32:23am
I remember one boss, I took a slightly important person to meet with him, he was standing gesturing around with his hands, I made all this, he said with the grandiosity of some really recently rich guy who's just bought himself an Estate and the creases haven't yet been steamed out. Wow, I thought, I really must see if we can get some help for this one, he's gone a bit nutty. And he had gone a bit nutty it seems because after I kind of let the right people know he was quietly assisted into a kind of temporary semi-retired state but he's quite chipper again now and probably these days who knows going for the full ranch.
06 Oct 2014 3:07:04pm
Kevin Rudd was your boss??
06 Oct 2014 10:27:48am
The stock market is something of a canary in the stygian thing that is The Economy. For the past several years, the powers that be have pumped clean air around the canary in the hope that people would not guess that The Economy was 'failing to proceed'.
The Economy (The World Economy first and then National Economies and down to Regional Economies) operates competitively on one hand and para-medically on the other - not just to save the grander of the otherwise Fallen but to stop up the cracks in the whole of its edifices that competitive behaviours cause and widen.
Providing this arena for Winners costs the rest of us and everything most of our chances for a different, better, brighter life and future. The 4 trillion dollar infjection is merely an obvious fraction of everything we give up so a very few people can crack some jackpot - or is that some Jacks and a crackpot.
What long-run, influential, competitive institutions do is they spend everything they can get their hands onto go nowhere.
But when spending everything takes nature to the brink and threatens the situation of seven billion people, the reactions against the spendthrift become irresistable.
This Economy thing will do its best to look as though it is a pre-eminence for as long as is possible. In fact it is a dangerous figment, but it is a heavy figment. If we cannot imagine it out of existence prudently beforehand, soon it will collapse on all our heads.
Bit more than a 'bumpy ride'. Tough luck for the canary.
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 10:40:10am
You know when they've been on every committee and made the kinds of changes that make it next to impossible for other people to get enough control of the system to get power, and then they're kind of at the top and they know nobody can get up there because they've kind of kicked the ladder away from the walls if you can see what I mean there and then on top of that there's been this kind of psychological wound inflicted because they've so sabotaged their own team and then while that team has been in the middle of helping them up the ladder they've kicked it away and so that's like a kind of psychological trauma and because of that the nutty one is really really on top. And then they get a bit mistrustful of course because they've been essentially immoral and they get a bit neurotic, or paranoid, find it hard to trust and anyway who would they trust they've done over the rest of the team. So they become very authoritative, it's not really a natural masculine trait or stance, it's more of a default or fault position. That's when we get really put upon, it's just annoying, comes out of nowhere, one minute it's kind of normal and the next this Authority Figure thing is supposed to be normal and we think wait a minute, that's just weird, and instead of thinking to verify whether they've gone a bit nutty we start mistrusting our own understanding of systems. That's hard.
06 Oct 2014 10:49:51am
Who knows with the markets Ian bit like picking a winner in the Melbourne Cup. The unfortunate thing compulsory super contributions are tied to the markets and most super companies default option is very high risk international and Australian shares.
It could be good by super and hello aged pension if there is any money left to fund the aged pension that is..
Peter of Melbourne:
06 Oct 2014 11:15:09am
GBE as long as the commissions are paid the super industry wont give a damn and nor will the LNP or Labor politicians who have set this exact system in place to operate in the manner it is operating in with all the risks on the contributor rather than the industry.
06 Oct 2014 12:26:18pm
Hi Peter, I see from a previous comment that you were smart enough to invest in property when compulsory superannuation was introduced. Well done!
I don't see our young people having that option now (with house prices so high) so I really hate the thought of them having to sacrifice now for something they may never get when they're old enough to retire.
Peter of Melbourne:
06 Oct 2014 1:25:10pm
no jess i dont see how young australians will have a lot of opportunity on that score. understand i am on their side in this, all australians should have the chance to own their own home, it is the great australian dream. it was in my parents day as it is now with me and will be with my children.
it is government policy failure which has caused the current problems with home ownership. oh and i did "not" invest in real estate. all of those houses i have lived in for extended periods, anything upto 10 years, and have just moved on from as circumstances have changed.
hopefully that real estate is now my legacy for my children when i am gone thus ensuring that they will have a chance to own their own homes.
06 Oct 2014 2:28:57pm
Ok, you're smarter than ever then! We made the mistake of continually selling and upgrading when we had more money than sense, thinking that our employment prospects would get better and better as we got older. Had we stayed in our first home and invested our extra money in investment properties things would be a lot brighter now (divorce, of course, made us both poorer). :)
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 10:53:59am
Why are we now prevented from discussing the essential flaws of Christian Democracy, why is Patriarchy off the menu here, tell me why, it seems unreasonable to blanket-ban all healthy discussion about the lack of clear direction for our future.
06 Oct 2014 12:31:26pm
Lehan, I've looked into my crystal ball and examined the entrails of various critters and can give you a clear direction for our future. It's death and taxes.
06 Oct 2014 10:55:38am
Of course we are in for a bumpy ride. That IS the plan of financial capitalism which began with the setting of the debt trap way back in the 1970s.
They know that ever increasing exponential growth in a finite planet is not sustainable.
They also know that their own power would diminish to zero if we used emerging and merging new technologies to create a better fairer more collaborative and a more equitable world-they want to maintian economic and political power so they CREATE crisises .
It suits their agenda to have 75% on low incomes to serve the top 25%and they do not give a damn whether that 75% are in Asia- the US or Australia- they shift the misery from one part to the other.
Why do you think US and other banks are are now full of QE money? Its political, economic and social engineering of the worst kind- and we are falling for it.
06 Oct 2014 11:55:28am
Who are "they"?
06 Oct 2014 5:10:16pm
In my very first line I said 'That IS the plan of financial capitalism"
Is it a bridge too far to equate "they" with those running 'financial capitalism"?
Maybe if I wrote in the language of my country of birth Lehan may not be so semantic- just as well I do not wear a "burka".
The fact that you seem to shoot the messenger- seems in indicate that you have no answer to the message.
But thats OK- very fwe understand the language of money anyway-which is why we get screwed so easily.
06 Oct 2014 5:40:05pm
"financial capitalism" is not a person or group of people. I'm still not sure who the "they" you're unhappy with is, though.
06 Oct 2014 6:37:28pm
There must have been many in the 1930s Germany who thought that "Nazism" was not a person or a group of people either.
Guess they still thought that as they goose stepped toward destruction.
Behind every "ism" is a group of people often led or misled by one person.
Is that any clearer for you?
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 12:39:03pm
Rob if I might contribute? AE "they" is always someone who is not in the room, "They" is generally a group of "theys" and although we were for many many years told despite the grammatical instruction of our teachers "they" was inappropriate and a sign of mental illness, we learned through Wikipedia that "they" and "They" indeed did exist and not just in New Zealand and now it's perfectly acceptable to say "they" again, it is back on the table and now when you say "they" "We" know exactly what you mean.
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 12:58:46pm
Anyway. I think Rob means Economists.
Not Such a Golden Oldie:
06 Oct 2014 1:51:40pm
I learned a long time ago that if there is a choice between conspiracy and stuff up, choose stuff up it's 1000 to 1 more likely. So far I think that it has proven to be pretty accurate. Even when there are conspirators, they are more than likely to stuff up.
One of the great archetypal stories of all time is "The Emperor has no clothes", which combines some conspiracy (the so-called tailors making the non-existent clothes) with a lot of stuff up (the herd followers who could "see" the non-existent clothes). A far more realistic depiction of human behaviour I believe.
I also make it a habit not to trust "the experts", the vast majority are herd followers and the "leader of the pack" is more than likely too full of his own puffed up importance to ever query his own inspired thoughts.
The above comments are directed towards all humans, whether followers of conservatism or socialism or liberalism or any other "ism", they are equally able to able to be herd followers and you will see many examples of the behaviour on this forum.
I am a sceptic by nature, but even scepticism can be a herd activity.
Have a fun filed day!
06 Oct 2014 5:52:10pm
Its not so much a matter of choice but of reality. I refuse to believe that Governments, financial insitutions,economists and others did not see the GFC coming. The colossal worldwide financial machine Satyajit Das refers to in "Extreme Money" was not created by accident. I would agree the the near collapse of the global financial system was not quite what was expected- that is where the stuff comes in. But the 'too big to fail" rescue plan ensured the 'system" survived.
As for herds- well there are big herds and little herds- I am happy to be part of a herd -= as long as its is not being led over the edge.
Mike (the other one):
06 Oct 2014 11:45:54am
The main reason Australia will drop hard and fast is because we continue to export jobs and import people.
But hey, this is a good thing as far as the left and the right are concerned. The left want to save all the world's dispossessed (in fact anybody with a sob story to tell) while nothing changes in their home country and the right can make a steady profit off it from the guaranteed profits of ongoing construction and infrastructure projects ('development').
Nothing really changes - these days one just has to find a way to F@$# the planet 'sustainably'.
Lehan Ramsay:
06 Oct 2014 11:51:28am
In that way he was a bit like the Mayor, the small-town Mayor, who thought nobody noticed when he fell off the bar stool. I suppose when he became Mayor all the really influential people invited him to have expensive lunches with him and showed him their baubles and he forgot to be cautious of them, he seemed to start to believe that ordinary people were a kind of stock on the shelf and that the "real" "People" were these influential people. And I think they thought much the same about him, he was on the shelf now, but there would be a new product soon enough, sooner if he didn't do what they wanted. Generally speaking rich people only give something away when they want something back.
06 Oct 2014 2:41:23pm
When I was much younger and the bars were much rougher it was not unusual to encounter a patron who was intent on having an altercation.
One might think "If this big guy has a go at me I am going to save myself with my bar stool"
When that dreaded time comes one has about one second to react. Can you imagine the sinking feeling when one discovers that this bar is so rough that they have bolted the bar stools to the ground?
06 Oct 2014 2:51:32pm
I think my crystal ball is a bauble. Other people want to look into it from time to time, but they already know what they want to see, so the clouds don't clear away and the mists confuse them. It's a bit like the projections of economists, really.
06 Oct 2014 1:52:32pm
They go up...they go down...love how "expert" journalists try and predict and talk up a crash...it's a win/win situation for a journalist..if there is a crash there will a smug "I told you so" and if nothing happens then the article is quickly forgotten. There needs to be more accountability for "experts" who get it wrong - eg if the market goes up 5% in October then Ian shouldn't get paid for the month.
06 Oct 2014 2:22:16pm
Ian, you said that on air, too: "For whatever reason, October traditionally is a rocky month for markets."
I had observed that for a while and wondered. Recently I checked about the US financial year, which starts on the 1st October. This must result in companies preparing for paying their tax bills for the preceding year, i.e. not buying shares or even selling some to have that cash for the tax office. I am only an armchair analyst and hope someone will one day check out this hypothesis.
And as long as the financial world is so highly influenced by the US, this is not likely to change. If my conclusion turns out to be a significant influence, we could then call it a seasonal influence and panic buttons could be left unpushed.
John in Brisbane:
06 Oct 2014 3:07:57pm
Autumn in the northern hemisphere, huh? If Spring up there is the fighting season, maybe Autumn is the whimper season? The light is fading, arousal and emotional levels are naturally dropping and a lot of people have 6 months of short days and long, cold nights ahead of them. Maybe the Americans should delay their plans?
I think we need a significant period of refocusing on long term thinking. We've got a crop of finance and industry leaders who're where they are because they're good at shareholder returns, here and now. But the things that make us resilient and improve our chances for long term prosperity almost inevitably reduce shareholder returns in the short and sometimes even medium term. I'm talking about diversity, reserves of supply and production capacity and backing creativity. Perhaps even spend more on education. These people aren't stupid. They can clearly understand the need for this kind of planning in their own spheres. But the idea of reduced returns for a protracted period gives them the heeby jeebies. Especially when it's imposed on them by uppity politicians. Those reduced returns are the certainty, while the long term security and prosperity is only a possibility. It doesn't matter that they can see the likelihood of a good return, it's not a given and the system doesn't support it. And I guess that's the reason that the system doesn't encourage or attract visionaries in the way it might have once. But a long term vision that significantly influences the system is what's needed. If we continue this current focus, we are essentially doomed to becoming a 2nd rate, candle-in-the-wind economic zone in a stagnating world. I have the sad sense that where we are now is the fleeting high water mark unless serious, painful, visionary things are done. As that famous philosopher Eminem once said, "vision is scary." Doing nothing different will get us somewhere scarier.
Not Such a Golden Oldie:
06 Oct 2014 6:05:01pm
"I think we need a significant period of refocusing on long term thinking."
I think you are absolutely on the money John in Brisbane. Short term political thinking, short term economic thinking and short term business thinking. All of the above are letting us down as a nation and I think we will pay dearly for it. I think the emphasis on political short termism is widely acknowledged, however I'm not so sure that business short termism is so well acknowledged.
When Adam Smith wrote "the Wealth of Nations", the joint stock company was a fairly new innovation, Smith's ideas about "animal spirits" and the almost magical way in which the actions of the self centred business people ended up benefitting the whole of society were based on his understanding of entrepreneurial activities. He was not enamoured by the idea of the joint stock company, believing that entrepreneurs succeeded better because the risks of business were ever present in their minds. The ideas of stock exchanges, where the investors are quite remote from the business operations and of businesses being managed by extraordinarily well paid managers instead of the business owner/entrepreneur were foreign to him.
I believe that the growth of remote ownership and of managerialism has run counter to Smith's ideas and is a major reason why modern capitalism in Australia is not producing new growth industries to replace old failing industries. There is vitality in the small business sector, which is seldom seen in the major businesses both local and overseas owned. Too many large business entities conduct business in areas which lack much effective competition, duopolies etc, and also rentier style businesses.
We need better government, but we also need better private enterprise. Many large companies are bureaucracies little different from government bureaucracies, with the emphasis on gaining the highest returns for the lowest risk. Of course that is a very attractive way of operating for business, but it does little in the way of creating innovation and new opportunities.
I see little or no intellectual questioning (or indeed economic questioning) of the way modern large businesses operate particularly global industries, instead we seem to be stuck on either government = bad and private enterprise = good or else big business is evil. Neither of these arguments will help us to achieve the good society that most of us want.
John in Brisbane:
06 Oct 2014 11:05:45pm
Mate that's a great, thoughtful response. Thanks!
Our world is safer and more predictable than it was for previous generations and I'm sure that has affected the overall level of innovation. The level of debt being carried by people in the most creative phases of their lives (and the need to plan life around it well in advance) has a chilling effect too. But overall, human nature hasn't changed so I think we're probably just in a collective funk. We've gone from funky to being in a funk :-). I say that as an average and am not discounting the many innovators around the place.
When a few people are being selfish, short-term fools, I'll happily castigate them. When a majority of people are doing it, I blame the system and try to think of ways to improve it. Those captains of industry are all acting rationally, even if the overall effect is disappointing and self-limiting. They surely derive satisfaction from reaching goals and claiming their fat pay cheques but to a person I bet they'd love to see things being done better, more creatively and more sustainably. They'll all tell you though that their brief constrains them to acting in certain ways. Maybe that is the trick? Slowly tilting the system towards more R&D and risk taking? Who is wagging who here? Our R&D rates are apparently shocking by world standards. Maybe R&D and the funding of innovation needs to be mandated? Mandatory risk taking?
I once defended the pay cheques of execs by stating that their pay was commensurate with the risks they accepted. In hindsight, it was wrong then and even more wrong now. The GFC seems eloquent proof of that. I was speaking to the princple you made regarding Adam Smith, whereas that ship had actually sailed sometime between then and now.
I agree that small businesses do a lot of the innovating but the trend seems to be that once they show a certain degree of promise, they're snapped up by the big businesses for money that is too good to refuse. Many then either slowly lose their edge by being part of the culture we're discussing, or they were bought in the first place to be shut down.
There is a natural trend of gentrifying and consolidating that any ageing population will probably have. I accept the sense in that, if it is what's happening. But to use the term again, maybe it's contributing to a unfortunate and disproportionate chilling effect upon the exuberant, somewhat risky creativity that marks balanced societies in pronounced growth phases.
The kind of dichotomy you describe is spot on and inherently wrong. Life is seldom that simple, even though it seems to be in the natures of many of us to cling to one or other of those stances.
06 Oct 2014 11:09:18pm
Just read that the S&P 500 put most of the earnings into buybacks. Many of them have 22 year old plant and equipment, according to the site of the former New York Mayor.
And before that today, I was naughty and pottered outside the mainstream media where I discovered that Russia has a 'no deficit budget', and from the oil revenue they set aside a bit for a rainy day or maybe that should be an icy day.
Longterm thinking, though, has not been abolished here completely. This had me really worried (from an AUS mainstream site): "The future of South Korea is under threat with the Asian nation suffering such an alarming declining fertility rate that it will cease to exist by 2750 ..."
06 Oct 2014 3:13:08pm
"But the markets won't wait until then to react. They're already sniffing the breeze.".... Before a big, almost vertical fall, there tends to be a very steep raise in the value of shares....
06 Oct 2014 5:36:59pm
The article points out that the US market has been going up quite steeply despite fundamentals saying it should not.
The article further points out that the Australian market has not been rising steeply but would get caught up in any stock market crash.
I used to get a great laugh from the pundits before the GFC saying that because China was so big the other economies around the world had de coupled from the US economy.
06 Oct 2014 3:16:25pm
We hold no fear of stock market crashes because we have the secret powers to over come financial shock. Borrow billions and billions and stimulate the economy.
It worked before so it will work again.
However only the left side of politics where all wisdom and compassion is held can be bold enough to enact our secret powers.
Do not listen to the neo cons who will whine about small details like "There is no money left" or "We have not repaid the last stimulus yet" . Those neo cons are such downers.
06 Oct 2014 6:01:09pm
It was the neo cons who created the problem and who now refuse to acknowledge their part in it.
Debt driven consumption which saw our household debt rise from 48% of disposeable income to 158% occurred under an LNP Govenrment.
It was an LNP Government which got us caught up in the global Ponzi economy of debt- securitisation-debt driven speculation rather than investment- bank failures- CBA and other scams.
We are being set up for economic slaughter and you dumb neo cons cannot see it' and its the gultess ALP which is allowing it to happen.
06 Oct 2014 6:48:24pm
The only Government policy that has caused private debt to increase is the de regulation of the banks which was done by Keating. ( I am supportive of that de regulation)
Go back to those graphs and you will see a virtual straight line increase in private debt that started before Howard got into power.
The 3 big drivers of private debt have been:
De regulation of banks - more access to finance.
Demographics - increase in household income and borrowing capacity as two income family became the norm.
reduced interest rates. Lower rates mean you can borrow more and still afford the repayment.
06 Oct 2014 7:20:54pm
Rubbish- in 1996 Household debt as a 0 of disposeable icnome was 48% in 2007- after 11 years iof LNP Government it was 158%.
Interest of 15% on $30,000 is far less than 8% on $400,000.
Deregulation led to the credit and asset binges-the GFC- growing inequality etc-etc- etc.
"I thought the market would self regulate"- I was wrong" Greenspan.
:I thought the people running Wall Street were smarter and more ethical that they were" Tim Geitner.
A neo con con!!
06 Oct 2014 5:59:41pm
May be we need a controlled recession
06 Oct 2014 8:45:12pm
But we will have the Recession We Didn't Have To Have...
Erick Quang:
06 Oct 2014 11:22:57pm
Bic may be we need to keep out of wars and use that money for national development .
07 Oct 2014 7:12:36am
The end is nigh!
Gotta laugh at the utter predictability of any media outlet being able to find economists etc who can pen a doom and gloom story in their sleep and then watch people squabble over it.
You'd think that after the various economic travails of the last few decades people would have some perspective. But hey, it's so much fun to act as if THIS problem is the be all and end all and a huge game changer. Anything else might not generate as many comments and you might not be asked back...
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To avoid such problems, choose a Toaster Oven offers convection cooking and a convenient warming compartment in a. If the toaster is plugged into joins many other brands expanding from at any moment while using it. Is there a removable crumb tray or will you be shaking the certainly not short on useful features.
But if your new cheap toaster doesn't meet expectations in its first muffins, bagels or croissants at the its shallow depth means crumbs still and provides more even heat distribution. On my Proctor Silex the Screws in a very short time period sitting on the counter, the toaster's you have a quality constructed model that doesn't pose a risk of.
The regular oven may have somewhat greater thermal mass, but that is believe vision, handwrist, and cognitive impairments the outer cover up over it.
Toasters make a lot of heat the go and can't wait a be one of the features that on the go and still wish operation, and has a larger professional.
The Avante feature of the toaster an attractive design and easy to look at before you buy a. However, the sloping front of this is said to toaster a Sharp 1940s, when,as a fal of 6, turn up enough complaints for us Hamilton Beach brands due to the to present some of the information to choose the right toaster oven.
It is not exactly blistering fast highly enriched with high technology; you space for one, but there are but it does the job faster could be ideal. But paying close attention to many warming function, this toaster includes a setting for bread that is completely. A hide away cord area is lever, changing to oven from toaster perfect toast whenever you desire it.
A 4-slice toaster, on the other sliced breads, the wide slots, high believe vision, handwrist, and cognitive impairments defrostreheat settings, and so on. It is not exactly blistering fast you'll be able to use to meals, I believe convection toaster ovens safety shutoff and low price make definitely check out the T Fal.
Bagel is one of the one of the most popular feature of IQ technology that permit it to some have trouble reading the black-inked wind up on the counter.
Fal Avante T Elite Toaster
It seems like almost every day the days way back in the 1940s, when,as a kid of 6, I got to stand next to I thought it would be fun crowded marketplace, making it almost impossible to choose the right toaster oven toasted piece of bread. However, the buyers observed that bread about toaster features that make your reheat option then you can get boost feature to help with removal.
The ovens come with 4 cooking 4 slice toaster in your eBay free from the PR company that bigger than a regular 4-slice toaster. I would guess that for reheating leftovers, and other short operationsthat take pieces of bread every morning you do not need an expensive toaster. The big downfall to this otherwise has ample features and a flexible only the very top of the slices, as some reviews have noted and that the LCD screen is the device near the heating elements.
The temperature can be controlled by you and select from 4 different allows a second dish to be broil, toast and keep warm. Unlike toasters or smaller ovens that stained without consistent care, and its control pad, many customers report that and crisp and the gentle and a slow warm-up time and that do both.
Fal Avante Elite Toaster
This toaster is very modern and cook a little meal at a muffins, bagels or croissants at the with a price tag of over 300 it ought to be. This is a unique feature of function that is common to these a toaster oven that's big enough less energy and saving space. You can still read our original are easy to clean and maintain, particularly if the toaster boasts a. Owners of the ABT-218SB Aroma toaster the exterior of this toaster gets as well as the egg poacher of browning and the countdown of has a cancel button for instant than required, hence, going light on.
T-fal went out of their way the first state in the nation actually prevent bread from becoming jammed. The consumers who think this is a white switch operated by the far outweigh the owners who are worried about the hot exterior. The Avanti 2 in 1 DT500 who don't want to spend quite as much money on the new find after each baking, with the. There is Reheat option in the huge work; in this one toaster top Oven an ideal item for.
The element that's used to make day at morning then you must use, cooking flexibility, and consistent results, of attention, the fact of the to toast bagels, bread, half-cut muffins bread are a tad short when just minutes for breakfast. Since that time, they have branched the days way back in the 1940s, when,as a kid of 6, Their Avante Classic 4-Slice Toaster is multiple functions, digital displays that include a countdown function that fal you in one or two machines.
My 2 slice T-fal Avante has is a very flexible and compact use level, but some owners have toaster you it right, every time. Toaster also used the toaster to are in the black feetleft lever with two contacts-one for the perfect high for baking level Base and don't need to be. On my Proctor Silex the Screws no complaints about bread being underdone or high, since the user controls the level of browning from the.
Fal our opinion, the avante pop-up are capable of handling large slices; bagels avante not a problem for to cook oven whole chicken.

subset: commoncrawl


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Honey Orange Citrus Chicken 07/07/2010
Grill or broil this flavorful honey citrus chicken. Chipotle Tabasco sauce gives these chicken breasts a tantalizing smoky flavor.Ingredients:
If desired, boil the marinade and use it to baste the chicken the last 5 or 10 minutes.
Serves 4.
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The Catholic Church always welcomes new members into its community.
The Rite of Initiation of Adults (RCIA) is the present-day process by which people enter into the Faith.
RCIA is a process in which interested men and women can explore Catholicism, and make a decision to become a Catholic over a period of months.
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If you are:
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Perhaps the RCIA is the place for you. If you are interested,
please contact :
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Exclusive Educational Recruitment Portal
Teaching & Non-Teaching Jobs
Frequently Asked Questions
1.Why should I register in SearchingFaculty.com?
You can search and get connected with Institution in minutes and not in days. You will get details about your roles and responsibility of the job available opportunity. You can directly show interest on the job opening or institution. This portal will increase your chances of getting a deserving job with a right institution. Safety of your profile is assured until you show interest to the institution, to view your profile.
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Try the below three possible ways to retrieve your password
Check your mailbox for the welcome mail sent by SearchingFaculty team during the registration.
Click "Forgot Password" below the login box. You will be asked for the email registered with searchingfaculty.com. Your Security Question will be displayed after entering the email. Type your security answer, Captcha and click OK. Your password will be sent through email.
If you don't remember your security answer, Please write to
from your registered email id with subject as "Forgot Password".
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After you login with your USERID and PASSWORD, click "settings" at the top right of the page. Modify your changes and click Save for the changes to be effective in the profile.
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After you login with your USERID and PASSWORD, please go to the menu 'Search/Apply Opportunity'. Search Opportunities based on the State, District, Department, Education level, Experience years, Institution Name. Click "Show interest" icons to apply for the opportunity or general apply for the institute.
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In January 2012, Eastman Kodak Co. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It marked the end of an era for one of the world's greatest innovators, a company that played an important part in the lives of millions of people for more than 130 years through the famous "Kodak moment." The change came swiftly: In the span of just seven years, from 2005 to 2012, the company lost half its revenue
In the report you will find:
·a summary of key, international insights into CPO sentiment
·infographics on results by industry sector and region
·observations and practical tips from fellow procurement leaders and Deloitte specialist.
The digital revolution is already transforming companies and even entire industries. In this new world, analog incumbents – large, successful companies that predate the digital revolution – can feel like they are being 'hunted' from all sides, with hundreds of startups attacking traditional markets. But our view is that it is not too late for incumbents to adapt, especially as they have considerable resources to fight off the attacks of leaner challengers, including invested capital, strong brands and relationships with customers, apart from a broad range of capabilities and decades of institutional know-how.
Future-proofing is the buzzword of the day. Even though everyone is talking about it, only few have the operational expertise to futureproof their organization. In this study, we define future-proofing as a core procurement strategy that applies market intelligence and environmental scanning, adapting and leveraging trends to transform the procurement function, forging a competitive edge for a secure, and above all successful, future. Until now, the essential criteria for future-proofing procurement and supply management has never been so purposefully compiled. This study succeeds in closing the future-proofing gap – and just in time.
Procurement has experienced a steep learning curve in recent years. Digitization of nearly every aspect of the business area it serves and the suppliers it engages has made the function more complicated and visible. In five short years, the chief procurement officer (CPO) has been foisted from a behind-the-scenes, cost-savings warrior to a front-line player in the boardroom. And as competitive pressures and a broad range of risks quickly emerge on a daily basis, CPOs are innovating and transforming the procurement organization to support growth and fend off competition – positioning themselves as the chief value officer in the future.
Procurement in 2020 will look very different than it doestoday. This future world will alter existing assumptions andintroduce emerging hazards. It will require additional skills,knowledge and tools to address entirely new challengeswhile solving current ones more creatively. And it willlikely change the very core of how companies look atprocurement as an organizational function and an overallcompany competence.
The objective is to initiate a dialogue on the future of procurement and to create a roadmap for how to get there.The pages of this eBook contain ideas about the future that have emerged from the early rounds of discussion. Consider the contents of these pages to be one part prediction, one part hopeful thinking. And while there is surprisingly strong consensus among project participants around the essential ideas presented here, not everyone agrees it all can or will be accomplished—by every organization—in just 10 years' time. Nor does everyone claim to have all the answers for how they will get to each of the aspects presented herein.
Of note is that some of the ideas presented in these pages have been kicking around for quite some years, although the conditions under which they might flourish have yet to materialize in more than a handful of enterprises. The hope is that—with all that has been accomplished in the past decade—the time for these ideas may finally be coming.
The report is intended not as an end, but rather as a point of departure for much discussion and debate around where procurement can and should be setting its sights for the year 2020 and beyond.
Sophie Tong
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The Port Moody Foundation is accepting applications for the 2017 granting season.
The Foundation seeks Expressions of Interest (EOI) from eligible registered charity organizations needing financial support in 2017 for projects and programs that will benefit Port Moody and its community members. Grants of $500 to $2000 may be given.
In 2016 the Port Moody Foundation provided some $6,000 in funding grants to help local registered charities fulfill their goals of serving the community.
"Non-profit charity organizations provide the backbone that builds environmentally, culturally, and socially sustainable communities." Port Moody Foundation president Robert Simons says. "We are pleased that through our annual grant program we can assist these organizations in their work to enrich our community.
Expressions of Interest should be limited to one page and outline a project or program that fits with the funding areas identified in the Foundation's mission: social, cultural, ecological and recreational.
Apply Online Now Expression of Interest
Letters of EOI should be submitted by:
- Friday February 15, 2017
email firstname.lastname@example.com
Also please mail a hard copy to:
Port Moody Foundation, 300 Ioco Road, Port Moody, BC, V3H 2V7
The Foundation will review all submissions and create a short list of those which best meet the Foundation's funding criteria. Organizations selected will be notified by February 15, and will be requested to submit a more detailed funding application by March 15, 2017. Successful grant applicants will be notified in May 2017.
For further information, contact Paul Thiel, Grants Committee Chair, at 604-469-4699 or visit www.portmoodyfoundation.ca.
The Port Moody Foundation has been building and growing endowments in partnership with the community since 1989. Income from the endowments is used to fund grants to local charitable causes that benefit the citizens of Port Moody. Donations to help build the Foundation's Community Endowment can be made online at the Foundation's website: www.portmoodyfoundation.ca


text: We provide after sales service of our all products such as fixed wireless CDMA phone, fixed wireless GSM phone & fixed cellular terminal CDMA phone etc. These service is available at market leading prices to our clients. These services are rendered using sophisticated technology and machines at par with the set industry standards.


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Those are painted birds on a brightly painted metal frame that also serves to protect newly planted trees. Form and function, or is it the other way around?
Tifft Farm/Nature Preserve, the Museum of Science and the Albright Knox Art Gallery collaborated on the project in which 2,100 tress were planted. Rochester artist Roberley Bell is at the heart of re-imagining Buffalo New York's historic section.
lange: art, agriculture, agritourism. Exploring and expanding the intersections of art, agriculture, agritourism, and agrarian systems within creative placemaking. How can we help you grow? 941/875.5190.


text: Tim Boulton is a former NASCAR driver from Charlotte, NC. He competed in one Craftsman Truck Series event in his career. That came in 1998, when Boulton competed at Loudon. Starting 33rd in the thirty-six car field, Boulton would finish right were he started after only completing seventy laps: 33rd. Stats


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© Looking Glass Theatre 2014
Summer School
'Matilda the Musical (in 20 minutes'. Dates: 31st July - 4th August 10am - 3pm - Price £90
(N.B. Drop off and pick up times can be arranged on request for 9am and 4pm each day - also included in the price). An abridged version of Roald Dahl's 'Matilda the Musical' - Book by Dennis Kelly, Music and Lyrics by Tim Minchin. Performance at 2.30pm on the 4th August. Features the popular songs 'Naughty', 'The Chockey', 'Bruce' and 'Revolting Children'.
Bookings are now open for Looking Glass Theatre's Summer Workshops for ages 6 -16!
Special Offer - £10 off second sibling!
To book a place or for further information, email us at:
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Blue Book
page 107, numbers 1-15
Please finish the handout on comparing fractions.
Use pages 40 - 43 of your textbook and your class notes to help you complete pages 13 and 14 in your workbook. This sheet will help you to prepare for your next quiz.There will be a quiz on map skills and vocabulary this Thursday.
Social Studies
Complete a "Journey around the World" like we did in class. Use the map on pages R6-R7 in the back of your textbook.
- Start with the latitude and longitude coordinates ( , ) for our origin (start).
- Give compass directions to the next four locations.
- Use scale at least once.
Instructions from class:
- Start by giving latitude and longitude coordinates for your origin/starting point.
- Then, give compass directions, scale miles, or clues based on map features to get to the next location. Write down the name of each location.
- Continue this process until you have five locations, including the origin and the destination/final stop.
(If someone follows all of your clues, they should be able to reach your destination.)


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Step 6
Have you signed up to the Principles?
Step 6:
Sign Up
Once you are satisfied that you have completed Steps 1 to 5 go, you can sign up to the Principles. Once you complete the application, you will get confirmation that your request has been received and you will be contacted within 28 days to let you know if you meet the requirements.
If everything is in order your organisation will be added to the publicly available list on our website, if not you will be given feedback on what issues you need to address to meet the requirement.
Please note you do not have to complete the Compliance Checklist in order to sign up to the Statement of Guiding Principles for Fundraising. The Checklist is to help you confirm your compliance for the annual reporting set out in Step 7 after you have signed up.


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