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That's what I have been told.
The fact that you are still basing your arguments on observed data means that, even now after at least six years of exhortations from successive generations of people who have tried to work with you and help you, you do not understand what it means to regress your data. I refuse to engage any longer till you learn to do this. —Benjamin Wendorf
Under the threat that Benjamin Wendorf will never engage with me again (how could I live with myself if that happened), I decided that I must finally investigate this regression thing that I have been putting off for so many years.
So, my first step was to go back and actually read what these really smart people have been telling me for years and I was told that Eric Tulsky was an expert in these matters. I say 'was' and expert because he is now working for the Carolina Hurricanes and out of the public sphere. Everyone is talking about him so he must be good and if knowing about this regression stuff managed to get him an NHL job, maybe I'll get an NHL job too. Ok, in addition to being able to engage with Benjamin Wendorf again, that will be my motivation for learning this regression stuff. Maybe I too will get an NHL job.
So off to google I went to search for those old Tulsky posts where he was telling me about this cool regression stuff that I have ignored for all these years. I came up with this article which seems like a great place to start as it was highly recommended by Nick Emptage. Nick described the process in the following way:
Essentially, the idea is to use the year-on-year autocorrelation r as a measure of a statistic's repeatability, and use (1 – r) to regress the value of that measure toward the average.
Ok, so back to Tulsky's post. Tulsky's method was to use 3 years of data (2007-08 to 2009-10) vs. the next three years of data (2010-11 to 2012-13). Here is what he found:
It turns out that the correlation between their on-ice shooting percentage over the first three years and the next three years is only 0.33.
Ok, awesome. Now, let's apply what Nick told us about.
So our simple statistical rules tell us that if all we know is a guy's on-ice shooting percentage over a ~3000-minute sample, our best guess for what he'd do in the future would be to take that number and pull it back 67% of the way towards the average shooting percentage.
Hey, yeah, this regression stuff is actually sounding kind of simple. Next he showed me a beautiful scatter plot that showed me exactly what was happening.
You'll notice that the line doesn't have a slope of one; it's much flatter than that. If you take a guy with an 11% on-ice shooting percentage in the first three years, the best-fit estimation of his next three years isn't 11%; it's (0.3485 * 11 + 5.3525) = 9.2%. Coincidentally enough, this is almost exactly 67% closer to the mean than the starting value was.
So there is no groundbreaking news here. The laws of arithmetic apply to hockey.
Ok, awesome. I have studied this and I am ready to apply this all on my own. I mean, if it is good enough for Tulsky it is good enough for me.
Ok, so first thing I need to do is calculate the auto-correlation of a statistic so I went and grabbed 3 years of player data and then a subsequent 3 years of player data. I chose to use 2010-11 to 2012-13 and 2013-14 to 2014-16 as my data sets and used players with at least 1500 minutes of ice time in each data set.
So, I calculated the auto-correlation and I was shocked. The auto-correlation of CF% is 0.55! Yes, 0.55. That, according to statistical theory means we ought to be regressing CF% 45% towards the mean. How could hockey analytics not be doing this for all these years?
Let me show you a scatter plot.
You'll notice that the line doesn't have a slope of one; it's flatter than that. If you take a guy with an 55% on-ice shooting percentage in the first three years, the best-fit estimation of his next three years isn't 55%; it's (0.6535 * 55 + 17.038) = 53%. Coincidentally enough, this is not far off 45% closer to the mean than the starting value was.
Time to start a campaign to regress CF% to the mean. I am a believer. Observed stats are bad, regressed stats are good. Who is with me?
Oh, and I want to revise my critique of Ryan Stimson's passing data post that started this whole discussion. The problem isn't that Stimson is using a stat that is heavily teammate influenced (as Ryan so eloquently pointed out) to dismiss claims Andrew Berkshire made about a players individual playmaking ability. The problem is that Ryan is using observed data and this is bad. Until Ryan regresses his data I refuse to engage him further (Wait, what was that I just heard? A roaring cheer from the Hockey Graphs crowd maybe?).
I am sold. Regression is a wonderful thing. CF% should be regressed 45% towards the mean. Do it or else Benjamin Wendorf won't engage with you again.
Oh, if you think that sounds like a lot, don't worry, Benjamin Wendorf is willing to wager that it isn't.
I would wager that if people are regressing towards the mean because of their data, they aren't "way over regress"-ing.
The data tells me I should regress CF% 45% towards the mean so I can't be over-regressing can I? Trust Wendorf. Trust Tulsky. Observed stats are for losers. Regress your data. Regress CF% towards the mean 45%. It will all work out. Simply statistical theory and the laws of arithmetic do apply to hockey.
Update: I have written a follow up post to this one. If you read this one the follow up post is a must read.


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Schafer Industries began in 1934 manufacturing high-quality gears as Schafer Gear Works. Today Schafer Industries is a leading producer of high-precision, custom-engineered gears and machined parts as well as axles, transaxles, transmissions, brake assemblies and other components for recreational and off-road applications. This makes us one of the few providers of integrated solutions in the industry.
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FREDERICKTOWN, OHIO. (April 4, 2017) — Christopher Whiteley has been promoted to quality assurance manager at the Schafer Industries driveline facilities in Fredericktown and Blacklick, Ohio, announced General Manager Chuck Tate. In his role, Whiteley will oversee all plant quality functions and work with the manufacturing group to facilitate continuous improvements in manufacturing best practices, lean production and field repair techniques. Tate said Whiteley was selected to fill the position opened when former QA Manager Rosie Cestari retired March 31.Read more
SOUTH BEND, IND. (March 22, 2017) — Ryan Finfrock is the new engineering manager at the Schafer Industries South Bend facility. The announcement came today from the Operations Manager, Paresh Shah. In his role, Finfrock will oversee all engineering-related functions and collaborate with the manufacturing group on process improvements and project launches. Finfrock will also manage the estimating function and will provide technical expertise to customers as needed.Read more
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The manufacturing facility includes a 50,000 square foot plant in Roscoe, Ill. producing gears and machined products for a variety of industries, including oil and gas, construction, mining, agricultural, power transmission and defense. Schafer owns and operates a similar facility in Rockford, Ill. The Rockford facility will be shut down by the end of August 2016 and all manufacturing and management functions will move under a single roof in Roscoe.Read more
Copyright © 2016 Schafer Industries, All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Warranties


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Tallgrass Brewing - King Buffalo & Velvet Rooster 12oz & 16oz Cans
29 September 2016
This morning we get a peek at several new cans (and beers) coming from Tallgrass Brewing in Manhattan, KS. King Buffalo is an imperial stout that is a "deeper, darker, richer and more complex" version of Buffalo Sweat and it is part of the Explorer Series. This beer hits 10.5%-AbV. We also have Velvet Rooster and it is a Belgian-style tripel ale that will hit 8.5%-AbV. Both beers will be packaged in 12o and 16oz cans.
Update 7 Dec 2016 from Tallgrass:
Coming January 2017: One Buffalo to rule them all. Introducing King Buffalo, a 10.5% imperial stout with the same coffee and chocolate notes of the original Buffalo Sweat, taken to the extreme. http://tallgrassbeer.com/kingbuffalo/


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This bit of fantastic cosplay features Ebony Amber as the Goblin King from Labyrinth. She looks perfect from that signature crazy hair to the makeup to the costume.
See Also: I'd Run Off With Jareth The Goblin Queen [Cosplay]
Photography by Mandi Martini.
See another picture after the break.
Send your cosplay pics to firstname.lastname@example.com.
(via Cosplay Blog)


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Greenpoint Open Studios
Cheryl Molnar Unusual Settings
a solo exhibition at
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956 Madison Avenue
3R - Third Floor
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hours of the gallery - Tue, Thurs, Fri 10-3, Weds, Sat, Sun by appointment.
Historically, paper works with mixed media have taken the form of various dimensional and decorative objects. Especially in Asia, there are many artifacts with paper as a basis; lanterns (with bamboo), shoji screens (with wood), dolls, toys, and vessel forms (paper mache), kites, calligraphy and so forth. Paper making itself is a venerated and nuanced art form in Japan. In this exhibition, we are excited to present a contemporary approach to paper by five selected artists with compliment from the Concepto Collection:
The Morgan Fine Arts & Film Center Presents:
August 22, 2015 2PM-10PM
649 Morgan Avenue. Greenpoint, Brooklyn.
BTW MY STUDIO IS AIR CONDITIONED! The Morgan Fine Arts & Film Center is pleased to announce its 13th annual Open Studios, to be held on Saturday, August 22nd, 2015. From 2pm to 10pm, over 20 separate studios on five floors will be open to the public, displaying fine art in a multitude of mediums including painting, sculpture, silk screening, jewelry-design, illustration, photography, animation, ceramics, and film.
Located at 649 Morgan Avenue at Nassau Avenue in Greenpoint, Brooklyn, The Morgan Fine Arts Building houses a large concentration of working artist studios, as well as a multitude of local, creative-based businesses that call the building home.
Open beer and wine bar throughout the day! Free livery service available to and from the Bedford L & Nassau G stations by calling 917.747.0348.
This year's featured artist is Jack Early, who began his art career in the late 1980s as one-half of the duo Pruitt-Early and has since focused on his career as a solo artist in a variety of mediums. Other participating artists and businesses include:
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Cheryl Molnar
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I Still Love You NYC
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Lee O'Connor
Linda Smyth
Love Child Studios
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Tyrone Christopher
You And Yours Fine Vintage
Come join us in this celebration of the local arts community!
Please join me in supporting Smack Mellon and the work they do to support artists and provide free education programs for NYC students. I have donated an artwork to help raise money at their benefit on May 2nd.
Purchase a ticket to the Smack Mellon benefit and you and your guest will attend the best Derby Party outside Louisville! Each ticket also guarantees 1 artwork. Guests bet on horses, which determines the order in which the artwork is selected. This is the best benefit in NYC and it supports a stellar non-profit art organization. Click on the image to read more about the event, see all the available artwork and purchase tickets.
Greenpoint Open Studios | Oct. 3-5 2014
GOS is back and better than ever! Greenpoint Open Studios is an annual event during which artists open their studios to visitors in order to build, sustain, and support a thriving creative community in North Brooklyn. Join our mailing list, and stay updated on the event!
This year, GOS will happen during the weekend of October 3-5, 2014.
Artists and art-lovers, please join our mailing list here so you can stay updated on this amazing Fall 2014 event. Greenpoint artists, we want you! There is no fee to participate, so submit your information here. The deadline to enter is August 31, 2014.
Event Organizers contact: firstname.lastname@example.com
Project Manager: Jen Galatioto (Greenpointers.com)
Website, Artist Outreach: Lia Post (Fowler Arts + Greenpoint Gallery Night)
Artist Outreach, Volunteer Coordinator: Eric Lee Bowman (artist, ericleebowman.com)
Graphic Design: Libby VanderPloeg (libbyvanderploeg.com)
Find Us:


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NASA today released a new video showing enhanced photographs of the moon's surface, taken from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). In the video, Noah Petro, research scientist and member of the LRO Project Science team, discusses the images captured from the Apollo 12, 14 and 17 landing sites.
Of course, this hasn't stopped the conspiracy theorists who argue that the Apollo 11 mission was faked - they say these images don't show anything from Apollo 11, and others argue that with Photoshop and other computer programs, that these images could also be faked.
Regardless of these arguments, the photos posted here are pretty impressive - but they don't address whether there's a giant monster on the moon, as witnessed by the 'Apollo 18' movie that only amassed $10M in receipts over the Labor Day weekend. Coincidence that NASA released these images after that movie opened? Hmmmm. Maybe something else for the conspiracy theorists to discuss.
Read more of Keith Shaw's ITworld.TV blog and follow the latest IT news at ITworld. Follow Keith on Twitter at @shawkeith. For the latest IT news, analysis and how-tos, follow ITworld on Twitter and Facebook.


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Now they do it again. This time Woody Johnson will do it right. He will listen to smart football people, a couple of wise old football heads like Charley Casserly and Ron Wolf, and then hopefully he can hire the kind of general manager the Giants hired a long time ago with the great George Young, who came to Jersey and began to change everything with the football Giants.
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Henrik honors NYPD: Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist wore an NYPD Patrolmen's Benevolent Association cap after his team's morning skate in Greenburgh in "support" of slain officers Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu and the officers' grieving families.
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Now they do it again. This time Woody Johnson will do it right. He will listen to smart football people, a couple of wise old football heads like Charley Casserly and Ron Wolf, and then hopefully he can hire the kind of general manager the Giants hired a long time ago with the great George Young, who came to Jersey and began to change everything with the football Giants.
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The potential cost of the program to all investors could be up to $455 million dollars annually, TD Ameritrade Holding Corp said in a letter dated Dec. 22, and posted to the SEC's website on Tuesday. The No. 1 retail broker by client trading volume estimated the potential cost to its customers between $11 million and $18.4 million.
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Andy Ash, head of sales at Monument Securities, said therewas a good chance that the ECB could announce QE measures whenit meets on Jan. 22, in order to minimise any knock-on effectsto European markets from the Greek vote later on Jan. 25.
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The league's two top-10 squads in last week's poll both dropped after losing their only games. Texas (10-2) went from ninth to 11th after falling in overtime to Stanford, and Kansas (9-2) was down three spots to 13th after its 25-point loss at Temple.
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Consumer demand, too, is expected to remain high for now aslower gasoline prices have put more money in the public'spockets to spend on goods such as meat protein, said Universityof Missouri economist Ron Plain.


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Makeblock 25mm DC Motor Pack - Blue
A 25mm diameter dc motor, together with a motor bracket, a shaft connector and a multipurpose wheel.
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Parts List
- 1x DC Motor-25
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Bobby Deol, Karishma Kapoor
Bobby Deol, Karishma Kapoor
Chander Kapoor (Bobby Deol) is a bold man, who helps his friend, Jay to elope with his Neena, his love. This makes him a thorn in the eyes of Neena?s father, who starts scheming to get even with him. Meanwhile, the romance blossoms between Chander and Pooja (Karisma Kapoor). Pooja, in her bid to evade tumultuous family situations, gets trapped in flesh trade. Will Chander save her, with his own life in jeopardy from Neena?s father?
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Mail Order 4623; ca. late 1960s or early 1970s; Misses' Dress. Scalloped yoke caps your shoulders. Printed pattern, New Misses' Size 8-16. Size 12 (bust 32) 2.75 yards 35-inch. Illustration & description are from No. 55, Summer Issue of MODERN NEEDLE/CRAFT magazine with missing pages -- so, no year. 1969 or later.
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High index lenses are a fairly recent term with respect to Optical solutions. Index refers to the ability of the lens to bend or refract light . The higher the index value, the greater the ability of the lenses to bend light . Higher index lenses can greatly help those with strong prescriptions.
The index value refers to the efficiency to bend light. Increase in the index value means the light is better refracted, thus requiring thinner lenses than usual. Our eyeglasses have lenses that refract the light before it reaches the eyes to focus the image properly on the retina. People with farsighted prescription require concave lenses that push the light into the middle of the lens . For people suffering from nearsightedness the lenses are curved so that the light is bent toward the top or bottom of the eye, towards the retina.
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Zelden, a junior, was named Most Outstanding Track Performer at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Track and Field Classic after winning the javelin.
She won with a throw of 145-feet, 3-inches and was 10 inches shy of the meet record of 146-1, set in 2014 by Ruston's Kristen Clark.
"Overall, I'm pretty pleased with my performance," Zelden said.
Zelden set the LHSAA state meet record in May with a throw of 146 feet.


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About the Internet of Things Consortium
The Internet of Things Consortium (IoTC) is a business development trade association for the IoT marketplace. Founded in 2012 and formed as a 501(c)(6) in December 2015, it is a member-based organization that connects a global ecosystem of leading companies building the Internet of Things – spanning across areas including home automation, smart cities, connected cars, connected retail and wearables. The IoTC's mission is to ignite the growth of the IoT movement by facilitating partnerships, promoting knowledge sharing and education, and driving adoption of IoT products and services.
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Lisa, at Ice Mudd and YoHo Graphix 4 Me, has out-done herself for World Breastfeeding Week. Offering daily free digital download embroidery designs EVERY DAY this week and contributing 2 give-aways to The Leaky B@@b, she's made sure we can party hard.
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Recently I was given the task of finding a fun, family-friendly vacation spot. Customarily we would take a flight to New York, Connecticut to visit family, or take a car ride over to Mickey's house, but I wanted to find somewhere different. I asked around, did some Googling, and came across Hawks Cay located in Duck Key. Destination: Hawks Cay Since it was a new destination for us, I felt the need to call there directly. Call me old school, but sometimes I like to talk to an actual human … [Read more...]
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Jane Johns moved with her husband Dr. H.C. Johns and children to the hamlet of Decatur in 1849, although she absolutely did not want to leave Circleville, Ohio.
In her book, "Personal Recollections, 1849-1865," she wrote, "Illinois is heaven for men and horses, but hell for women and oxen," and this phrase may have prompted her husband to promise to Jane that within five years of living in Illinois, they would attain great wealth from fattening cattle off the land at no cost.
20 Years Ago
1997 - The Vandalia Main Street Board of Directors went to the Vandalia City Council to request $15,000, with the money to be used as startup funds for the program.
Eleven members of the Vandalia wrestling team advanced to die individual sectional tournament. Of the 11, six won regional titles – Shane Graumenz, Michael Mabry, Hank Stout, Nathan Graumenz, Chad Wilson and Nick Cocagne.
Gilbert Olive was installed is worshipful master of Vandalia Temperance Lodge No. 16 A.F.&A.M.
This week's photo: The New Year's Baby at Fayette County Hospital 38 years ago is pictured with an OB nurse at the hospital.
In a tradition started more than 40 years ago, the Vandalia Chamber of Commerce has recognized two individuals who have gone the extra mile to help their community. And, as has been the case in past year, this year's recipients of the Abe Award have earned the recognition.
Charlie Barenfanger has served the city of Vandalia as a member of its police pension board, and Fayette County as a member of the Fayette County Hospital District Board of Directors. Those are the types of service that has been visible to others.
One of the earliest residents of Decatur was a woman named Jane Martin Johns. Born on June 28, 1827 in Circleville, Pickaway County, Ohio, she was married on Oct. 29, 1845, in Circleville, to Dr. H.C. Johns.
In May 1849, by pure chance, which included getting thrown from his horse 10 miles west of Decatur and breaking his collarbone, Dr. Johns chose that place as his new home. He had been on a deer hunt when his horse spooked.
Two Vandalia teams are in postseason action, one at the first level and one in the second.
The Vandalia Community High School wrestling team is in Lawrenceville on Saturday, going for its 23rd straight regional title.
The Vandalia Junior High School eighth-grade boys basketball team defeated Greenville for the IESA Regional title on Tuesday, advancing to the sectional next Wednesday night at Divernon.
We wish both teams luck as they strive to move forward in postseason play.
Copyright © 2017
The Leader Union is your source for local news, sports, events and information in Vandalia, Il, and the surrounding area.


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Find a copy in the library
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|Named Person:
|Franz Liszt; August Röckel; Haimberger.; Ch de Bériot; Ferdinand Praeger; Joseph Hellmesberger; Ferdinand David
|Material Type:
|Document Type:
|Book, Archival Material
|All Authors / Contributors:
Richard Wagner; Eduard Röckel
|OCLC Number:
|1 item (4 p.) ; (8vo)
Saying that Haimberger, a political refugee, must go to England or America, that he is also a violinist and hopes to study with Bériot in Brussels the coming winter, expressing the hope that Röckel can help Haimberger find a position in a London theatre orchestra, mentioning Präger [i.e., Ferdinand Praeger], Haimberger's teachers Hel[l]mesberger and David, etc.; Wagner then discusses his role in the Dresden Revolution, with special reference to August [Röckel], saying he has written Das Kunstwerk der Zukunft, Oper und Drama, that he is working on Siegfried's Tod, mentioning Liszt, etc.
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Themed services are extremely popular right now and will definitely set your spa apart from your competition. One idea that's extremely successful in our spa is to choose a theme according to the seasons. For example, offer a Candy Cane Combo for Christmas that uses all peppermint products and throw in a complimentary paraffin treatment for a value-added treat that is of minimal cost to you. Another idea is to host parties in your nail room for groups of four or more. You could choose a theme such as "Moms' Night Out." Offer lavender themed pedicures, manicures, and chair massages by candlelight. Word-of-mouth advertising will spread like wildfire from all of the happy moms in the city! — Sara Spallino is founder and co-owner of The Beauty Bar in Toledo, Ohio.
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an embellishment applied to the nail, usually self-adhering
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Hydra Restructures Firm In Buyout
Beverly Hills-based Hydra Network, an online performance-based ad network, has been restructured in a deal where an investor group, Hydra Group led by Hydra founder and CEO, Zac Brandenberg, is purchasing the assets of Hydra LLC, the original owner of the ad network. According to Hydra Group, it was formed by a group of online marketing focused investors, including Brandenberg. The investment group also includes Rick Podgorski, of venture firm Windomar Partners. Financial details of the acquisition were not disclosed. Hydra Network is a cost-per-acquisition (CPA) advertiser, with inventory from such firms as AT&T, Hotwire, Aegon, and others.


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Solid Marker Glow-In-The-Dark is the first marker of its kind to incorporate safety-grade photo luminescent material for easy Glow-In-The-Dark applications. It can write on, stay on, and glow on smooth, rough, oily, wet or damp surfaces.
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John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness MP3
album Heavier Things (2003) track 7 01 - Clarity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=742XHZb4noY 02 - Bigger Than My Body: ...
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness MP3
Lyrics for Split Screen Sadness by John Mayer.
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (Acoustic) MP3
Split Screen Sadness is my favorite John Mayer song. It really means a lot to me. This is a really cool acoustic version I found. I have another one but the sound ...
Split Screen Sadness- John Mayer MP3
i dont own any rights to this song! all john mayer's :) lyrics: And I don't know where you went when you left me but Says here in the water you must be gone by ...
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (w/ lyrics) MP3
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (Tradução) MP3
Tradução em português da música "Split Screen Sadness" do álbum "Heavier Things"
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (Live in Edmonton 4/28/07) MP3
Amazing encore!
Split Screen Sadness John Mayer en español MP3
Esta es una canción en la que nunca me fijé. Pero cuando la escuché un par de veces, descubrí una gran canción, sobre todo por la letra.
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (cover) MP3
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Jill and Kate COVER "Split Screen Sadness" by John Mayer (October 2011) MP3
Jill and Kate cover John Mayer's song "Split Screen Sadness" in their October edition of Song on the 17th.
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (cover) MP3
This is my first time attempting anything like this. But hey, you gotta start somewhere! I haven't done a John Mayer song in a while so here ya go! I hope you ...
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness Music Video MP3
I DO NOT OWN THIS MUSIC. MUSIC BELONGS TO JOHN MAYER. NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED. This was my first time using Adobe Premiere ...
Split Screen Sadness - John Mayer (Acoustic cover by Albert) MP3
So yeah again with the "It's been a while" opening. I planned on making this cover a while back, but as a student, school started and I was a little occupied.
Split screen sadness acoustic cover MP3
This is an acoustic cover of John mayer's Split screen sadness from his album Heavier things.
Marc Ozall - Split Screen Sadness (John Mayer Cover) MP3
Here is the splendid Marc Ozall covering John Mayer's track, Split Screen Sadness.
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness MP3
Hey guy this song is one of my favorites just because john mayer put so much soul into it. hope you like it as much as I do.
john mayer acoustic split screen sadness MP3
John Mayer and David Ryan Harris perform an acoustic version of Split Screen Sadness from Red Rocks 2007.
John Mayer - As/Is Volume 6 - CD1 - 05 Split Screen Sadness MP3
Split-Screen Sadness MP3
"Split-Screen Sadness" by John Mayer. Music video stars Erick & Loni of OKC and was originally submitted for a video contest on local-83.com in early 2004.
John Mayer Split Screen Sadness (Cover by Tom) MP3
Acoustic version... i know i play it differently and i mess up near the end... hope you enjoy.
Split Screen Sadness (In the Style of John Mayer) (Karaoke Version) MP3
Provided to YouTube by The Orchard Enterprises Split Screen Sadness (In the Style of John Mayer) (Karaoke Version) · Ameritz - Karaoke Karaoke - In the Style ...
Split Screen Sadness MP3
Provided to YouTube by Sony Music Entertainment Split Screen Sadness · John Mayer / 約翰梅爾 Heavier Things ℗ 2003 Aware Records LLC Released on: ...
Split Screen Sadness MP3
Ok, so after my mom bought The Lake House DVD and I gave in and watched it, this idea came to my head...it only took me a couple of months to actually follow ...
Split Screen Sadness - Zutara MP3
UGH timing at the end suckssss, plz pretend it's perfect and forgive. :) If I had a nickel for every angsty shot of Zuko...honestly, it was really way too easy to make ...
Split Screen Sadness...for Joni Wilson MP3
I met Joni Wilson for the second time last week...the first time not such a good experience...This last time she shared a photo that was so powerful and so full of ...
John Mayer- Split Screen Sadness+Lyrics MP3
I don't own anything. John Mayer Music.
John Mayer - Split Screen Sadness (acoustic) Red Rocks 6/15/2007 MP3
"Split Screen Sadness" performed by the Connecticut College ConnChords MP3
john mayer MP3
john mayer preforming split screen sadness (best song ever) in bonner springs kansas. 2004.
Split Screen Sadness - Alvaro Rosa MP3
Split Screen Sadness - John Mayer by Alvaro Rosa.


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Encontrar un ejemplar en la biblioteca
Encontrando bibliotecas que tienen este material…
|Manuscript collection
|Persona designada:
|Bret Harte
|Tipo de documento
|Material de archivo
|Todos autores / colaboradores:
Henry P Strong
|Número OCLC:
|0.2 c.f. (1 archives box)
Civil War letters, mostly typewritten copies, written by Dr. Henry P. Strong, Surgeon for the 11th Wisconsin Infantry Regiment, to his wife Sarah at Beloit, Wisconsin, 1861-1863, describing army life and its inefficiencies with emphasis on medical care, while serving in Missouri, Arkansas, and near Vicksburg. Also included are letters received by Strong from Army colleagues after his resignation; correspondence and invoices relating to medical supplies; an autographed brief handwritten note from Bret Harte dated Morristown, N.J., April 26, 1875, giving thanks for a favor offered; an 1879 fee schedule adopted and signed by physicians and surgeons in Beloit, Wis.; and a eulogy pronounced at Strong's death by the Grand Lodge, Knights of Honor.
Reseñas contribuidas por usuarios


text:
World's Shortest Woman
December 16, 2011 by staff
World's Shortest Woman, A high school student in central India was recognized as the world's shortest woman by Guinness World Records on Friday as she turned 18 and said she hopes to earn a degree and make it in Bollywood.
Jyoti Amge stood just 62.8 centimeters (24.7 inches) tall – shorter than the average 2-year-old – when Guinness representatives visiting from London measured her at a ceremony attended by about 30 relatives and friends in the town of Nagpur, in Maharashtra state.
A teary-eyed Amge, dressed in one of her finest saris, called the honor an "extra birthday present" and said she felt grateful for being small, as it had brought her recognition. After receiving a plaque, she and her guests cut a birthday cake.
"I have put Nagpur on the world map. Now everyone will know where it is," said Amge, who says she dreams of one day becoming a Bollywood film star as well as pursuing a university degree after she finishes high school this year.
"I want to be an actor," she said.
She measured 7 centimeters (2.76 inches) shorter than 22-year-old American Bridgette Jordan, who had held the title since September.
"Jyoti encourages us all to look beyond mere size and to just celebrate our differences," Guinness adjudicator Rob Molloy said.
Please feel free to send if you have any questions regarding this post , you can contact on
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this site are that of the authors and not necessarily that of U.S.S.POST.


text:
Interbrand rebrands global recruiter Hays
Interbrand has created a new identity for Hays, the international recruitment network.
Interbrand has created a new identity for Hays, the international recruitment network.
Waitrose is understood to be redesigning the in-store cafeterias across its network of more than 200 UK supermarkets. 'Waitrose's in-house team is conducting a great deal of customer research at the moment, seeking brand insights into how people use the cafés,' says an unnamed source close to the project. The group is believed to be […]
Jones Knowles Ritchie creative director Glenn Kiernan is leaving the consultancy to form new group We Are Him & Her with former JKR design director Ruth Galloway. Kiernan has been creative director at JKR for nine years, and worked with Galloway at the consultancy. Galloway, who is currently freelance, has also been design director at […]
Jones Knowles Ritchie is branding and packaging a new Charles Worthington haircare range called Front Row. The consultancy was appointed at the start of 2008 following a pitch against two or three other groups, says JKR creative director Silas Amos. Aimed at 'a younger, fashionsavvy market', according to Amos, the range has peelable labels that […]
Holmes Wood is branding a new cystic fibrosis research charity co-founded by the consultancy's director, Lucy Holmes. Holmes set up the charity, called Bounce, with friends whose families have been affected by cystic fibrosis. Kristian Teleki, a trustee of the group, whose son was born with the condition, says the name Bounce is 'fun, uplifting […]
Rehab Studio has created a social media tool for tourism body Visit England, to help businesses in the leisure and tourism sector use social media to their advantage.
Northumbria University has appointed Professor Steven Kyffin as dean of its school of design.
Wonder Associates has created an identity and campaign for Sculpture in Painting, a new exhibition hosted by the Henry Moore Institute in Leeds.
Crossing O'Sullivan has designed the interiors of the Krug private dining room at London's Dorchester Hotel for client Moët Hennessy UK.
Untitled London has created a mobile-specific site for Ukash, a company which facilitates online cash transactions.
The Bureau of European Design Associations will celebrate its lobbying achievements on 1 October, which BEDA has named European Design Day.
Dew Gibbons has rebranded Spanish cosmetics manufacturer Maymó.


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Shaped Cake Price Help
Decorating By mommyjones Updated 15 Sep 2011 , 12:12am by jason_kraft
I am making a liver shaped cake for a groom's cake. It has to feed 60 people and I am unsure how much I would charge for the cake. It is going to be red velvet covered in fondant. I could use some help please!
How much will the ingredients cost, and how long will it take you to bake and decorate the cake?
We have a minimum charge of $250 for shaped/sculpted cakes, regardless of size.
Quote by @%username% on %date%


text:
Blessed with over a thousand miles of coastline and well-known for its warm and colourful culture, Vietnam creates the perfect setting for a luxury beach holiday.
A beach holiday in Vietnam is a real melting pot of cultures and a diverse range of stunning scenery. Soaring mountains, lush jungles, and bustling paddy fields give way to stretches of unspoilt beaches, secluded islands and sparkling blue waters.
At W&O Travel we feature wonderful luxury beach holidays in Vietnam, with each of our exclusive resorts carefully hand-picked by our Far East travel specialists. So whether you are looking to experience a stay in a traditional Vietnamese village, the beautiful UNESCO World Hertigage Site of Hoi An, or prefer to relax in more modern and sophisticated surroundings, you are sure to find something to suit your tastes. If you wish to make the most of your trip to Vietnam find our Vietnam tours where you will have the opportunity to join an escorted group and visit some of the most beautiful spots in Vietnam.
Our Far East specialists have hand picked a selection of luxurious destinations and hotels which are perfect for your Vietnam honeymoon.
To plan your tailor-made luxury beach holiday to Vietnam call our Far East travel specialists today.
Read more about Vietnam Beach Holidays


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The Roseland Recreation Department will host Hands Off Soccer Camp from 9 a. m. to noon for boys and girls ages 6 to 13, and Kicks for Kids from 10:45 to 11: 45 a.m. for pre-school children ages 3-1/2 to 5, Monday to Friday from Aug. 13 t o 17, and Aug. 27 to 31, rain or shine, at the Lynn DeBell Memorial Field. The fee is $120 for Hands Off Soccer Camp and $65 for Kicks for Kids. There is a $10 discount for siblings. Special Goalkeeper Training will be offered and each camper will receive a camp T-shirt and soccer ball. The camper-to-staff ratio will be 10-1. Groups enrolling together may be trained as a team.
Awards will be presented in several categories.
To apply, fill out an application and medical forms and send them with a check to: Hands Off Soccer Camp, 217 Kingsland Terrace, South Orange, N.J., 07079. Checks should be made payable to Hands Off Soccer Camp.
For more information or an application, contact Michael Colitti, director of Roseland recreation, at 226-6552.


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RE: [MedievalSawdust] Judging bias (was Request to join medievalsawdust approved)
Expand Messages
- Folks
I did not mean to point fingers....I was sort of mulling over the importance of the mundane ...not that "gothic glam" isnt period or hard work....but that the mundane should never be overlooked as it was the basis for day to day life and the economy.
Fine Armour and Historical Reproductions
Custom Commissions Welcome....!www.partsandtechnical.com
(Well Formed Munitions Catalog Coming This Spring)
CC: firstname.lastname@example.com
From: IAmBroom@...
Date: Mon, 2 May 2011 14:04:17 -0400
Subject: [MedievalSawdust] Judging bias (was Request to join medievalsawdust approved)Drew:
> One of the problems I have noticed with the laurelite approach and with merchant juries is that they often do not account for every day objects but rather the wow-factor for swanky things.
Your experience is far off of mine, although we are probably from
different kingdoms. In the Middle, AEthelmearc, and East kingdoms,
workaday items that are well-formed draw real attention from both
judges and laurels. In fact, I can name two laurels made specifically
for their "ordinary" craft focus: middle-class carpentry and casting,
rather than high-end work.
Again, Drew:
> And while a barrel does not usually draw the crowds attention like a fine gothic chest, a barrel is such a fundamental part of the basic economy that such things should not be forgotten or overlooked.
And there is an Eastern coopering laurel.
' | Broom IAmBroom @ gmail . com
' | cellphone: 412-389-1997
' | 9370 Shadduck Rd, McKean, PA 16426
'\|/ "Discere et docere", which means:
'/|\ "When I was in the military, they gave me a medal for killing two
//|\\ men and a discharge for loving one." - Leonard Matlovich
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LA FILLE MAL GARDÉE (Royal Ballet) Clog Dance MP3
The famous CLOG DANCE fromLa Fille Mal Gardee, as presented by ROYAL BALLET.
La fille mal gardée - The Clog Dance from Act I (The Royal Ballet) MP3
Will Tuckett as Widow Simone and Marianela Nuñez as Lise with Cindy Jourdain, Sarah Lamb, Laura Morera and Deirdre Chapman and artists of The Royal ...
La Fille Mal Gardée - Clog Dance MP3
Orquestra do Algarve | Clog Dance ("La fille mal gardée", Ferdinand Herold) MP3
Dignific'Arte | 17 Junho 2011 Orquestra do Algarve | Maestro John Avery Concerto de beneficência a favor do Banco Alimentar Contra a Fome no Algarve ...
Brilliant Clog Dance - Gennady Yanin - Bolshoi La Fille Mal Gardee MP3
This is one of the best interpretations of Sir Frederick Ashton's Clog Dance from La Fille Mal Gardee that I've seen. Gennady Yanin performs this brilliant version ...
ANDRE RIEU - Clog Dance [HQ] MP3
Violinski - Clog Dance [totp2] MP3
[Video] Violinski - Clog Dance [totp2] (Wiggy St Helens UK 2008)
La fille mal gardee - The Clog Dance - Bolshoy Version MP3
Gennady Yanin as Widow Simone in Bolshoy production of La Fille Mal Gardee.
Violinski - Clog Dance [HQ Audio] MP3
Best Bluegrass Clog Dancing Video Ever Made MP3
To get this film visit https://www.createspace.com/204609 . Also. To see how and why I made this, visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VFIlLrNtKE . In this ...
"Clog Dance" Grimethorpe Colliery Band MP3
This is a video compilation from the film "Brassed Off" This is the first time I have done an upload by request.
Come Clog Dancing Flash Mob, Newcastle-upon-Tyne MP3
Conductor and musician Charles Hazlewood plans to put clog dancing firmly back on the map in this BBC FOUR documentary, with the help of expert clog ...
The Clog Dance MP3
Popular Dance from Millau area in France.
Sir Frederick Ashton's La Fille mal gardée, clog dance MP3
A glorious romantic comedy full of color and laughter, La Fille mal gardée is set in the countryside in eighteenth century France. The ballet tells the story of Lise, ...
Clog Dance-Elliot A. Del Borgo- Philharmonic Orchestra-H.Y.O MP3
Andre Rieu - Clog Dance (Hamburg) MP3
Clog Dancing On The Porch MP3
To get my 1 hour video, go to http://www.createspace.com/204609 Way back in 1964, New York filmmaker, David Hoffman was headed down with his new ...
Clog Dance MP3
Piedmont Middle School Winter Concert Intermediate Orchestra.
How & Why I Shot My 1964 Clog Dance Film MP3
So many people have asked me about my clip from my 1964 documentary on mountain music - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs2j8f7H2WY that I have ...
Walking Happy, Clog Dance MP3
Clog Dance from Walking Happy, Danny Daniels.


text:
LUTHER has a hard time standing still. After two years and hundreds of shows, LUTHER has put the finishing touches on their debut full length. "Let's Get You Somewhere Else" finds LUTHER honing their nervous energy to create not only a more straightforward, driving album but also a momentum that will keep the band from slowing down anytime soon.
Available on Colored Vinyl w/ Digital Download Card, Digipak CD, and Digital Download.
01. The Concrete Sound
02. A Calm
03. Heavy Money
04. The Glory Bees
05. Backyard Fence Appeal
06. The Second Star
07. Rattlesnake
08. A Quiet Stretch of Weather
09. Sunset, Sugar
10. An American Gothic
11. The Farmer and Her Wife
Vinyl Pressing Info:
1st Pressing
250 - Pink/Black Aside/Bside Vinyl (Chunksaah Mailorder)
250 - Clear Vinyl w/ Splatter (Tour)
500 - Pink Vinyl (Retail)


text:
Nice shirt I just didnt like how it fit. wide on the torso.
One Industries Briggs Long Sleeve Shirt
One Industries Briggs Long Sleeve Shirt
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stimulates formation of tight juncts b/w cells in capillaries
forms blood-brain barrier to prevent toxins from entering brain
provides glucose & removes NH3
kinds of chemical synapses have different effects on the postsynaptic celldepends on the type of signal transduction mechanism brought into operation with the neurotransmitter and the type of channel it influences
· if [Ca2+] is high in the terminal, more ions will be released than usualhappens when Ca2+ removal doesn't occur quickly enough by organelles causes a higher amplitude of EPSP or IPSP
choroid plexus – produces CSF
allows substances to enter the brain quicklydiffusion of oxygen and glucose regulates composition of extracellular fluid
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text:
What is it?
Carhartt's newest threads, the Force collection.
What does it do?
Force is a new breed of high-performance clothing that's moisture wicking, is stain releasing and also has anti-odor qualities. The sleeves are Raglan style, which basically means you have a lot more mobility and range of motion than your average T-shirt. They're made of 65 percent cotton and 35 percent polyester Force goodness.
How do I use it?
Wear it over your tenement T-shirt for best results. And just because you can wipe your nose on it doesn't mean you should. Also, socks go on your feet.
What sets it apart?
The fact that the Force line will keep you from looking and smelling like a slob ought to be reason enough for you to have your credit card out already. Plus, they're comfortable and lightweight.
How much?
Starting at $24 (shirt)How much?


text:
Hayden has chronicled experiences from her long career as a special education teacher in several books, including One Child and The Tiger's Child. Successes in this difficult and often frustrating field can be few and hard won, a fact which Hayden deftly illustrates while simultaneously offering hope and joy in small victories. This time she brings to life the story of a scruffy seven-year-old, Venus, who is so unresponsive that Hayden searches for signs of deafness, brain damage, or mental retardation.
"shows how hard some teachers have to work"
This powerful hypnobirthing audiobook has been designed for any expectant mother hoping for a beautiful, calm & efficient birth. There are four lovingly created tracks, recorded to the highest quality, including: 'Hypnobirthing: Beautiful Birth at Bedtime' can help prepare your all-important unconscious for a truly beautiful & amazing childbirth whilst allowing you to drift into a peaceful sleep where the posthypnotic affirmations will continue to work, priming your mind for an awesome experience.
"I listen ended to this my entire delivery"
One Saturday night in Las Vegas, 12-year-old Newell Ewing goes out with a friend and doesn't come home. In the aftermath of his disappearance, his mother, Lorraine, makes daily pilgrimages to her son's room and tortures herself with memories. Equally distraught, the boy's father, Lincoln, finds himself wanting to comfort his wife even as he yearns for solace, a loving touch, any kind of intimacy.
"Poor Ending"
There's no such thing as a pain-free birth, but there is a way to use hypnotic suggestions to maximize the joy and minimize the distress. Welcome your new baby with love and positive energy through the power of hypnosis.


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I have taken over my mother's cleaning business due to her retiring.
We have worked for over 20 years doing Sunriver/Bend Vacation Rentals 4 bedrooms and under. We also clean both Sunriver/Bend Area Private Homes.
Eco-Friendly: I have one client who is completely green therefore it is an option for me to use our green products in your home also if that is what you prefer.
Great long term references, licensed, insured.
Please call for rates per house.


text:
Published: March 8, 1982
(Page 2 of 4)
The energy crisis was really an oil crisis. From 1950 to the early 1970's, the world's consumption of oil grew fourfold, while the price declined slightly. The proportion of energy supplied by coal - a dirty, less-desirable fuel - declined to 17 percent from 40 percent, and improvements in the efficiency of energy use seemed a waste of money and effort.
Then, unnoticed by most Americans, United States oil production began to decline while output elsewhere surged ahead. This was the result of the natural depletion of older oil fields, the lack of economic incentives to search for new ones and the easy availability of cheap foreign supplies. Saudi Arabia became more important to the United States than Texas. How the Problems Began
The trap was set. During the 1973 war between Israel and the Arab countries, Arab oil producers cut output by 25 percent and embargoed oil shipments to the United States and other countries. The newly militant OPEC, which was not officially involved in the cutback or the embargo, nevertheless seized the opportunity to quadruple prices.
Despite President Richard M. Nixon's threat to let the Arabs drink their oil, control over energy had shifted to the producing countries, and there seemed to be nothing the industrial nations could do.
The impact was bitingly frustrating. A cycle of price rises hit the American and other economies. The prospect that Middle Eastern producers would use their oil to blackmail America - and its allies, which are even more dependent on oil imports -became a continuing fear. Experts worried that the United States would drain its fields and heighten its vulnerability. A Barrage of Positive Developments
What has changed is that the price increases, so painful and so resented, have sparked a barrage of positive developments. The revolutionary nature of these changes is apparent in the differences between experts' estimates of oil and energy needs now and those of a decade ago.
In 1973, the Exxon Corporation predicted that oil demand in the non-Communist world would grow to 95 million barrels a day by 1985. Now, the world's largest oil company says that demand by the year 2000 will grow to only 60 million barrels a day. At the end of last year, oil demand in the non-Communist world was an estimated 48 million barrels a day.
Exxon had also forecast that total energy demand would grow to the equivalent of 214 million barrels of oil a day by 1985. Now, it says, demand at the turn of the century will be equivalent to just 150 million barrels a day. The present figure is about 96 million. Rising at a Similar Pace
On the supply side, production of other fuels such as coal, nuclear energy and hydropower is growing 4 percent a year. Growth in oil output outside OPEC is increasing at a similar pace.
Further improving the world's energy situation is an increase in government stockpiles, which have more than doubled in recent years, to approximately 90 days' supply. The United States has taken advantage of the weak oil market to accelerate purchases to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. When it reaches its present 500-millionbarrel goal, the reserve is expected to significantly curb the power of OPEC nations to raise prices and of Arab nations to use oil to influence political developments.
Already, OPEC has lost considerable flexibility. The doubling of oil prices after the Iranian revolution in 1979 has dampened demand by more than 10 percent. Nonetheless, the price rise enormously increased the revenue expectations of the oil-producing countries. Competing in Dwindling Market
The result has been that OPEC nations are pumping less oil than in any year since 1969, and are competing against one another for shares of the market.
Symbolic of the possibilities afforded by today's market is the Reagan Administration's plan to boycott oil from Libya, the country that was in the forefront of the Arab oil embargo and has most vociferously sought higher prices.
OPEC's prospects could be further dimmed by the return of warring Iran and Iraq as full-scale oil producers. Within months after peace is achieved, analysts figure, the two countries could add 2 million barrels a day to their present production of under 2.5 million. At one time, Iran alone was producing 6 million barrels daily. 'Revolution' in Utilization of Energy
What has changed in the energy picture is not the indisputable fact that oil and other hydrocarbon fuels such as coal and wood are dwindling resources whose price will ultimately be forced upward as the physical limits of supply are pressed.
Until the world converts to solar power and other renewable fuels, people will continue to be captives of the depletion of energy ''capital'' generated by dead dinosaurs hundreds of millions of years ago, rather than continually generated ''income'' created by the sun, according to Barry Commoner, the environmental activist.
But the day of reckoning - when hydrocarbon fuels are no longer adequate to supply needs at an affordable cost - may have receded so far into the distance as to be almost meaningless, according to William Brown, director of energy and technology studies at the Hudson Institute. Improvements in efficiency prompted by higher prices are chiefly responsible. Efficiency Increases Cited


text:
- Location:
- Houston, TX, USA
- Price:
- No price
- Manufacturer:
- TSC Manufacturing drilling equipment
- Model:
- Condition:
- used
- Division:
- Equipment
- Category:
- Drilling equipment in Texas
- Subcategory:
- Drawworks
- Subcategory 2:
- Hoisting equipment
Drawworks TSC's DW series drawworks are manufactured in accordance with API standards and have received numerous certifications including ABS and DNV. The drawwork's stable performance is ensured through using ultra-strength, high-quality materials as well as a well-known motor. The DW series is characterized by its simple construction, convenient maintenance, light weight and small footprint. DW2300, DW3000, DW4600, DW6000 Features: - Designed to meet the requirements of ABS or DNV - The drum uses a LEBUS-groove which is favorable for rope arrangement and maintenance - The mechanic-electronic-hydraulic integration technique allows for a more compact layout - Skid and frame welds are rigid, accurate and have a small footprint - Forced lubrication system increases the drawworks operation convenience and safety
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