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TrueSkill Through Time: Revisiting the History of Chess
- Lilian McDowell
- 2 years ago
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1 TrueSkll Through Tme: Revstng the Hstory of Chess Perre Dangauther INRIA Rhone Alpes Grenoble, France Ralf Herbrch Mcrosoft Research Ltd. Cambrdge, UK Tom Mnka Mcrosoft Research Ltd. Cambrdge, UK Thore Graepel Mcrosoft Research Ltd. Cambrdge, UK Abstract We extend the Bayesan skll ratng system TrueSkll to nfer entre tme seres of sklls of players by smoothng through tme nstead of flterng. The skll of each partcpatng player, say, every year s represented by a latent skll varable whch s affected by the relevant game outcomes that year, and coupled wth the skll varables of the prevous and subsequent year. Inference n the resultng factor graph s carred out by approxmate message passng (EP) along the tme seres of sklls. As before the system tracks the uncertanty about player sklls, explctly models draws, can deal wth any number of competng enttes and can nfer ndvdual sklls from team results. We extend the system to estmate player-specfc draw margns. Based on these models we present an analyss of the skll curves of mportant players n the hstory of chess over the past 150 years. Results nclude plots of players lfetme skll development as well as the ablty to compare the sklls of dfferent players across tme. Our results ndcate that a) the overall playng strength has ncreased over the past 150 years, and b) that modellng a player s ablty to force a draw provdes sgnfcantly better predctve power. 1 Introducton Compettve games and sports can beneft from statstcal skll ratngs for use n matchmakng as well as for provdng crtera for the admsson to tournaments. From a hstorcal perspectve, skll ratngs also provde nformaton about the general development of skll wthn the dscplne or for a partcular group of nterest. Also, they can gve a fascnatng narratve about the key players n a gven dscplne, allowng a glmpse at ther rse and fall or ther struggle aganst ther contemporares. In order to provde good estmates of the current skll level of players skll ratng systems have tradtonally been desgned as flters that combne a new game outcome wth knowledge about a player s skll from the past to obtan a new estmate. In contrast, when takng a hstorcal vew we would lke to nfer the skll of a player at a gven pont n the past when both ther past as well as ther future achevements are known. The best known such skll flter based ratng system s the Elo system [3] developed by Arpad Elo n 1959 and adopted by the World Chess Federaton FIDE n 1970 [4]. Elo models the 1
2 s probablty of the game outcome as P (1 wns over 2 s 1, s 2 ) := Φ 2 1 s 2 where s 1 and s 2 are the skll ratngs of each player, Φ denotes the cumulatve densty of a zero-mean untvarance Gaussan and s the assumed varablty of performance around skll. Denote the game outcomes by y = +1 f player 1 wns, y = 1 f player 2 wns and y = 0 f a draw occurs. Then the resultng (lnearsed) Elo update s gven by s 1 s 1 + y, s 2 s 2 y and = α y + 1 π P (1 wns over 2 s } {{ } 1, s 2 ), 2 K Factor where 0 < α < 1 determnes how much the flter weghs the new evdence versus the old estmate. The TrueSkll ratng system [6] mproves on the Elo system n a number of ways. TrueSkll s current belef about a player s skll s represented by a Gaussan dstrbuton wth mean µ and varance σ 2. As a consequence, TrueSkll does not requre a provsonal ratng perod and converges to the true sklls of players very quckly. Also, n contrast to Elo, TrueSkll explctly models the probablty of draws. Crucally for ts applcaton n the Xbox Lve onlne gamng system (see [6] for detals) t can also nfer sklls from games wth more than two partcpatng enttes and nfers ndvdual players sklls from the outcomes of team games. As a skll ratng and matchmakng system TrueSkll operates as a flter as dscussed above. However, due to ts fully probablstc formulaton t s possble to extend Trueskll to perform smoothng on a tme seres of player sklls. In ths paper we extend TrueSkll to provde accurate estmates of the past skll levels of players at any pont n tme takng nto account both ther past and ther future achevements. We carry out a large-scale analyss of about 3.5 mllon games of chess played over the last 150 years. The paper s structured as follows. In Secton 2 we revew prevous work on hstorcal chess ratngs. In Secton 3 we present two models for hstorcal ratngs through tme, one assumng a fxed draw margn and one estmatng the draw margn per player per year. We ndcate how large scale approxmate message passng (EP) can be used to effcently perform nference n these huge models. In Secton 4 we present expermental results on a huge data set from ChessBase wth over 3.5 mllon games and gan some fascnatng chess specfc nsghts from the data. 2 Prevous Work on Hstorcal Chess Ratngs Estmatng players sklls n retrospectve allows one to take nto account more nformaton and hence can be expected to lead to more precse estmates. The poneer n ths feld was Arpad Elo hmself, when he encountered the necessty of ntalzng the skll values of the Elo system when t was frst deployed. To that end he ftted a smooth curve to skll estmates from fve-year perods; however lttle s known about the detals of hs method [3]. Probably best known n the chess communty s the Chessmetrcs system [8], whch ams at mprovng the Elo scores by attemptng to obtan a better ft wth the observed data. Although constructed n a very thoughtful manner, Chessmetrcs s not a statstcally wellfounded method and s a flterng algorthm that dsregards nformaton from future games. The frst approach to the hstorcal ratng problem wth a sold statstcal foundaton was developed by Mark Glckman, charman of the USCF Ratng Commttee. Glcko 1 & 2 [5] are Bayesan ratng systems that address a number of drawbacks of the Elo system whle stll beng based on the Bradley-Terry pared-comparson method [1] used by modern Elo. Glckman models sklls as Gaussan varables whose varances ndcate the relablty of the skll estmate, an dea later adopted n the TrueSkll model as well. Glcko 2 adds volatlty measures, ndcatng the degree of expected fluctuaton n a player s ratng. After an ntal estmate past estmatons are smoothed by propagatng nformaton back n tme. The second statstcally well founded approach are Rod Edwards s Edo Hstorcal Chess Ratngs [2], whch are also based on the Bradley-Terry model but have been appled only to hstorcal games from the 19th century. In order to model skll dynamcs Edwards consders 2
3 the same player at dfferent tmes as several dstnct players, whose sklls are lnked together by a set of vrtual games whch are assumed to end n draws. Whle Edo ncorporates a dynamcs model va vrtual games and returns uncertanty measures n terms of the estmator s varance t s not a full Bayesan model and provdes nether posteror dstrbutons over sklls, nor does t explctly model draws. In lght of the above prevous work on hstorcal chess ratngs the goal of ths paper s to ntroduce a fully probablstc model of chess ratngs through tme whch explctly accounts for draws and provdes posteror dstrbutons of sklls that reflect the relablty of the estmate at every pont n tme. 3 Models for Rankng through Tme Ths paper strongly bulds on the orgnal TrueSkll paper [6]. Although TrueSkll s applcable to the case of multple team games, we wll only consder the two player case for ths applcaton to chess. It should be clear, however, that the methods presented can equally well be used for games wth any number of teams competng. Consder a game such as chess n whch a number of, say, N players {1,..., N} are competng over a perod of T tme steps, say, years. Denote the seres of game outcomes between two players and j n year t by y t j (k) {+1, 1, 0} where k { 1,..., K t j} denotes the number of game outcomes avalable for that par of players n that year. Furthermore, let y = +1 f player wns, y = 1 f player j wns and y = 0 n case of a draw. 3.1 Vanlla TrueSkll In the Vanlla TrueSkll system, each player s assumed to have an unknown skll s t R at tme t. We assume that a game outcome yt j (k) s generated as follows. For each of the two players and j performances p t j (k) and pt j (k) are drawn accordng to p ( p t j (k) ( ) st = N p t j (k) ; s t, 2). The outcome yj t (k) of the game between players and j s then determned as +1 f p t yj t j (k) > pt j (k) + ε (k) := 1 f p t j (k) > pt j (k) + ε, 0 f p t j (k) p t j (k) ε where the parameter ε > 0 s the draw margn. In order to nfer the unknown sklls s t the TrueSkll model assumes a factorsng Gaussan pror p ( s 0 = N s 0 ; µ 0, σ0) 2 over sklls and a Gaussan drft of sklls between tme steps gven by p ( s t s = N s t ; s, 2). The model can be well descrbed as a factor graph (see Fgure 1, left) whch clarfes the factorsaton assumptons of the model and allows to develop effcent (approxmate) nference algorthms based on message passng (for detals see [6]) In the Vanlla TrueSkll algorthm denotng the wnnng player by W and the losng player by L and droppng the tme ndex for now, approxmate Bayesan nference (Gaussan densty flterng [7]) leads to the followng update equatons for µ W, µ L, σ W and σ L. µ W µ W + σ2 W µw µ L ε v, and σ W σ W 1 σ2 W µw µ L ε c j c j c j c 2 w, j c j c j µ L µ L σ2 L µw µ L ε v, and σ L σ L 1 σ2 L µw µ L ε c j c j c j c 2 w,. j c j c j The overall varance s c 2 j = 22 + σw 2 + σ2 L and the two functons v and w are gven by N (t α; 0, 1) v (t, α) := and w (t, α) := v (t, α) (v (t, α) + (t α)). Φ (t α) For the case of a draw we have the followng update equatons: µ µ + σ2 µ µ ε ṽ, and σ σ 1 σ2 µ µ ε c j c j c j c 2 w,, j c j c j 3
4 and smlarly for player j. Defnng d := α t and s := α + t then ṽ and w are gven by N ( s; 0, 1) N (d; 0, 1) ṽ (t, α) := Φ (d) Φ ( s) and w (t, α) := ṽ 2 (t, α) + (d) N (d; 0, 1) (s) N (s; 0, 1) Φ (d) Φ ( s) In order to approxmate the skll parameters µ t and σt for all players {1,..., N} at all tmes t {0,..., T } the Vanlla TrueSkll algorthm ntalses each skll belef wth µ 0 µ 0 and σ 0 σ 0. It then proceeds through the years t {1... T } n order, goes through the game outcomes yj t (k) n random order and updates the skll belefs accordng to the equatons above. 3.2 TrueSkll through Tme (TTT) The Vanlla TrueSkll algorthm suffers from two major dsadvantages: 1. Inference wthn a gven year t depends on the random order chosen for the updates. Snce no knowledge s assumed about game outcomes wthn a gven year, the results of nference should be ndependent of the order of games wthn a year. 2. Informaton across years s only propagated forward n tme. More concretely, f player A beats player B and player B later turns out to be very strong (.e., as evdenced by hm beatng very strong player C repeatedly), then Vanlla TrueSkll cannot propagate that nformaton backwards n tme to correct player A s skll estmate upwards. Both problems can be addressed by extendng the Gaussan densty flterng to runnng full expectaton propagaton (EP) untl convergence [7]. The basc dea s to update repeatedly on the same game outcomes but makng sure that the effect of the prevous update on that game outcome s removed before the new effect s added. Ths way, the model remans the same but the nferences are less approxmate. More specfcally, we go through the game outcomes yj t wthn a year t several tmes untl convergence. The update for a game outcome yj t (k) s performed n the same way as before but savng the upward messages m f(p t j (k),s (s t ) s t t ) whch descrbe the effect of the updated performance p t j (k) on the underlyng skll st. When game outcome yt j (k) comes up for ( update agan, the new downward message m f(p t j (k),s p t ) p t j (k) t j (k) ) can be calculated by m f(p t j (k),s t ) p t j (k) ( p t j (k) ) = f ( p t j (k), s t ) p (s t ) m f(p t j (k),s (s t ) s t t )dst, thus effectvely dvdng out the earler upward message to avod double countng. The ntegral above s easly evaluated snce the messages as well as the margnals p (s t ) have been assumed Gaussan. The new downward message serves as the effectve pror belef on the performance p t (k). At convergence, the dependency of the nferred sklls on the order of game outcomes vanshes. The second problem s addressed by performng nference for TrueSkll through tme (TTT),.e. by repeatedly smoothng forward and backward n tme. The frst forward pass of TTT s dentcal to the nference pass of Vanlla TrueSkll except that the forward messages m f(s,s (s t ) s t t ) are stored. They represent the nfluence of skll estmate s at tme t 1 on skll estmate s t at tme t. In the backward pass, ( these ) messages are then used to calculate the new backward messages m f(s,s s t ) s, whch effectvely serve as the new pror for tme step t 1, m f(s,s t ) s s = f ( s, s t ) p (s t ) m f(s,s (s t ) s t t )dst. Ths procedure s repeated forward and backward along the tme seres of sklls untl convergence. The backward passes make t possble to propagate nformaton from the future nto the past.. 4
5 s W s L s W s L ε L ε s s j ε j ς ς ς s t W s t L s t W s t L ε t L ε t s t s t j ε t j p W p L p W p L + + p p j + u L u u j d d d d j <0 Fgure 1: Factor graphs of sngle game outcomes for TTT (left) and TTT-D. In the left graph there are three types of varables: sklls s, performances p, performance dfferences d. In the TTT-D graphs there are two addtonal types: draw margns ε and wnnng thresholds u. The graphs only requre three dfferent types of factors: factor takes the form N ( ;, 2), factor > 0 takes the form I ( > 0) and factor ± takes the form I ( ± = ). 3.3 TTT wth Indvdual Draw Margns (TTT-D) From explorng the data t s known that the probablty of draw not only ncreases markedly through the hstory of chess, but s also postvely correlated wth playng skll and even vares consderably across ndvdual players. We would thus lke to extend the TrueSkll model to ncorporate another player-specfc parameter whch ndcates a player s ablty to force a draw. Suppose each player at every tme-step t s charactersed by an unknown skll s t R and a player-specfc draw margn εt > 0. Agan, performances pt j (k) and pt j (k) are drawn accordng to p ( p t j (k) ( ) st = N p t j (k) ; s t, 2). In ths model a game outcome yj t (k) between players and j at tme t s generated as follows: +1 f p t yj t j (k) > pt j (k) + εt j (k) = 1 f p t j (k) > pt j (k) + εt 0 f ε t pt j (k) pt j (k) εt j. In addton to the Gaussan assumpton about player sklls as n the Vanlla TrueSkll model of Secton 3.1 we assume a factorsng Gaussan dstrbuton for the player-specfc draw margns p ε 0 = N ε 0 ; ν 0, ς0 2 and a Gaussan drft of draw margns between tme steps gven by p ( ε t ε = N ε t ; ε, ς 2). The factor graph for the case of wn/loss s shown n Fgure 1 (centre) and for the case of a draw n Fgure 1 (rght). Note, that the postvty of the player-specfc draw margns at each tme step t s enforced by a factor > 0. Inference n the TTT-D model s agan performed by expectaton propagaton, both wthn a gven year t as well as across years n a forward backward manner. Note that n ths model the current belef about the skll of a player s represented by four numbers: µ t and σ t for the skll and νt and ςt for the player-specfc draw margn. Players wth a hgh value of ν t can be thought of as havng the ablty to acheve a draw aganst strong players, whle players wth a hgh value of µ t have the ablty to acheve a wn. 5
6 x Frequency Year Fgure 2: (Left) Dstrbuton over number of recorded match outcomes played per year n the ChessBase database. (Rght) The log-evdence P (y, ) for the TTT model as a functon of the varaton of player performance,, and skll dynamcs,. The maxmzng parameter settngs are ndcated by a black dot. 4 Experments and Results Our experments are based on a data-set of chess match outcomes collected by ChessBase 1. Ths database s the largest top-class annotated database n the world and covers more than 3.5 mllon chess games from 1560 to 2006 played between 200,000 unque players. From ths database, we selected all the matches between 1850 (the brth of modern Chess) and Ths results n 3,505,366 games between 206,059 unque players. Note that a large proporton of games was collected between 1987 and 2006 (see Fgure 2 (left)). Our mplementaton of the TrueSkll through Tme algorthms was done n F# 2 and bulds a factor graph wth approxmately 11,700,000 varables and 15,200,000 factors (TTT) or 18,500,000 varables and 27,600,000 factors (TTT-D). The whole schedule allocates no more than 6 GB (TTT) or 11 GB (TTT-D) and converges n less than 10 mnutes (TTT)/20 mnutes (TTT-D) of CPU tme on a standard Pentum 4 machne. The code for ths analyss wll be made publcly avalable. In the frst experment, we bult the TTT model for the above mentoned collecton of Chess games. The draw margn was chosen such that the a-pror probablty of draw between two equally sklled players matches the overall draw probablty of 30.3%. Moreover, the model has a translatonal nvarance n the sklls and a scale nvarance n /σ 0 and /σ 0. Thus, we fxed µ 0 = 1200, σ 0 = 400 and computed the log-evdence L := P (y, ) for varyng values of and (see Fgure 2 (rght)). The plots show that the model s very robust to settng these two parameters except f s chosen too small. Interestngly, the log-evdence s nether largest for 0 (complete de-couplng) nor for 0 (constant skll over lfe-tme) ndcatng that t s mportant to model the dynamcs of Chess players. Note that the logevdence s L TTT = 3, 953, 997, larger than that of the nave model (L nave = 4, 228, 005) whch always predcts 30.3% for a draw and correspondngly for wn/loss 3. In a second experment, we pcked the optmal values (, ) = (480, 60) for TTT and optmsed the remanng pror and dynamcs parameters of TTT-D to arrve at a model wth a log-evdence of L TTT D = 3, 661, 813. In Fgure 3 we have plotted the skll evoluton for some well known players of the last 150 years when fttng the TTT model (µ t, σ t are shown). In Fgure 4 the skll evoluton of the same players s plotted when fttng the TTT-D model; the dashed lnes show µ t + ε t 1 For more nformaton, see 2 For more detals, see 3 Leakage due to approxmate nference. 6
7 Fgure 3: Skll evoluton of top Chess players wth TTT; see text for detals. whereas the sold lnes dsplay µ t ; for comparsons we added the µ t of the TTT model as dotted lnes. As a frst observaton, the uncertantes always grow towards the begnnng and end of a career snce they are not constraned by past/future years. In fact, for Bobby Fscher the uncertanty grows very large n hs 20 years of nactvty ( ). Moreover, there seems to be a notceable ncrease n overall skll snce the 1980 s. Lookng at Fgure 4 we see that players have dfferent abltes to force a draw; the strongest player to do so s Bors Spassky (1937 ). Ths ablty got stronger after 1975 whch explans why the model wth a fxed draw margn estmates Spassky s skll larger. Lookng at ndvdual players we see that Paul Morphy ( ), The Prde and Sorrow of Chess, s partcularly strong when comparng hs skll to those of hs contemporares n the next 80 years. He s consdered to have been the greatest chess master of hs tme, and ths s well supported by our analyss. Bobby Fscher (1943 ) ted wth Bors Spassky at the age of 17 and later defeated Spassky n the Match of the Century n Agan, ths s well supported by our model. Note how the uncertanty grows durng the 20 years of nactvty ( ) but starts to shrnk agan n lght of the (future) re-match of Spassky and Fscher n 1992 (whch Fscher won). Also, Fscher s the only one of these players whose ε t decreased over tme when he was actve, he was known for the large margn by whch he won! Fnally, Garry Kasparov (1963 ) s consdered the strongest Chess player of all tme. Ths s well supported by our analyss. In fact, based on our analyss Kasparov s stll consderably stronger than Vladmr Kramnk (1975 ) but a contender for the crown of strongest player n the world s Vswanathan Anand (1969 ), a former FIDE world champon. 5 Concluson We have extended the Bayesan ratng system TrueSkll to provde player ratngs through tme on a unfed scale. In addton, we ntroduced a new model that tracks player-specfc draw margns and thus models the game outcomes even more precsely. The resultng factor graph model for our large ChessBase database of game outcomes has 18.5 mllon nodes and 27.6 mllon factors, thus consttutng one of the largest non-trval Bayesan models ever 7
8 Skll (Varable Draw Margn) Skll + Draw Margn Skll (Fxed Draw Margn) 3500 Anand; Vswanathan Kasparov; Garry 3000 Fscher; Robert James Skll estmate 2500 Echborn; Lous Botvnnk; Mkhal Kramnk; Vladmr Karpov; Anatoly Morphy; Paul Stentz; Wllam Spassky; Bors V 2000 Lasker; Emanuel Capablanca; Jose Raul Anderssen; Adolf Year Fgure 4: Skll evoluton of top Chess players wth TTT-D; see text for detals. tackled. Full approxmate nference takes a mere 20 mnutes n our F# mplementaton and thus demonstrates the effcency of EP n approprately structured factor graphs. One of the key questons provoked by ths work concerns the comparablty of skll estmates across dfferent eras of chess hstory. Can we drectly compare Fscher s ratng n 1972 wth Kasparov s n 1991? Edwards [2] ponts out that we would not be able to detect any skll mprovement f two players of equal skll were to learn about a skll-mprovng breakthrough n chess theory at the same tme but would only play aganst each other. However, ths argument does not rule out the possblty that wth more players and chess knowledge flowng less perfectly the mprovement may be detectable. After all, we do see a marked mprovement n the average skll of the top players. In future work, we would lke to address the ssue of skll calbraton across years further, e.g., by ntroducng a latent varable for each year that serves as the pror for new players jonng the pool. Also, t would be nterestng to model the effect of playng whte rather than black. References [1] H. A. Davd. The method of pared comparsons. Oxford Unversty Press, New York, [2] R. Edwards. Edo hstorcal chess ratngs. [3] A. E. Elo. The ratng of chess players: Past and present. Arco Publshng, New York, [4] M. E. Glckman. A comprehensve gude to chess ratngs. Amer. Chess Journal, 3:59 102, [5] M. E. Glckman. Parameter estmaton n large dynamc pared comparson experments. Appled Statstcs, 48: , [6] R. Herbrch, T. Mnka, and T. Graepel. TrueSkll(TM): A Bayesan skll ratng system. In Advances n Neural Informaton Processng Systems 20, [7] T. Mnka. A famly of algorthms for approxmate Bayesan nference. PhD thess, MIT, [8] J. Sonas. Chessmetrcs. 8
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text:
IGN UK's Dreamcast Picks
October 14, 2009 - Late, as ever, but that's Europeans for you. While the US got the oh-so-appropriate 9.9.99 date, we were stumped with the slightly less catchy 14.10.99, our first taste of SEGA's hardware swansong coming over a month after our American friends. We've already gone through the history of SEGA's ill-fated but fondly remembered machine, and given you a rundown of the console's very best games, so here's a more personal take on our own defining moments with the last of the big dreamers.
July 31, 2001 - The first person shooter genre is a mixed bag of good and bad when they are released on a console. The greater majority of first person shooters are ports of the PC version and in my opinion, you better come armed with a mouse and keyboard because playing on a pad ain't going to cut it. Also, for all the impressive visuals and blazing frame rate a first person shooter may have, it's not uncommon for the quality of both to decrease when split-screen or online multi-player games are started. Most of all, since so many of these corridor shooters come off as PC ports to a console, it just doesn't play right ¿ the reason why Goldeneye was such a great console FPS (and one of the few) was the controls were just right on the control pad; it enabled players to easily move and fire without having to worry about getting dizzy or spinning out of control. Although AM2's take on this genre, Outtrigger doesn't control as well as it could on a Dreamcast pad, the game is one of the most complete first person shooters offering top-notch graphics tons of gameplay modes, multi-player online modes with up to five other players, mouse/keyboard support, and the much neglected Broadband Adapter support making the game one of the more attractive first person shooters on the Dreamcast.
New Online Outtrigger Details
July 9, 2001 - For all the bad news we get from game delays and half-ass cancellations…
Join The Outtrigger Interforce
July 9, 2001 - With six player multi-playability and Broadband Adapter compatibility, not to mention keyboard and mouse support, Outtrigger is definitely looking like a must-have Dreamcast title. But if you think you've got what it takes to blast well-armed hostile baddies, you should read up on some information before plunging head first into this awesome first person shooter. Thankfully, SEGA has setup an uber cool Outtrigger Website. Flash 5 is required to gain access to "classified" information on the site, so if you don't have Flash 5, go download then head on over to the Interforce Outtrigger Website.
Latest Details: Outtrigger
May 24, 2001 - AM2's first first person shooter is just over one month away from…
Outtrigger Delayed Till June
May 24, 2001 - Though Dreamcast fans should be used to delays and (gasp) cancellations, it's nonetheless a bit disappointing when a major SEGA title gets pushed back. Such is the case for Outtrigger, AM2's first person shooter. Originally scheduled for a June release, Outtrigger is now pushed back till July 25th, partly due to scheduling of SEGA titles. Additionally, SEGA wants to tweak the online multi-player mode that supports up to four players. For those that don't know, Outtrigger is SEGA arcade port that has been highly anticipated for the Dreamcast; the additional Mission mode as well as the online play features have made this one to look for.
Date Set for Outtrigger in Japan
May 8, 2001 - Japanese website Game Ichiban has at last revealed a solid release date for AM2's original first person shooter, Outtrigger. The game, previously reported as a possible July release, has now been penciled in for release on July 26th.
April 25, 2001 - UPDATE: 04-25-2001 Though not seen in many arcades in the US,
Outtrigger Gallery (DC)
April 24, 2001 - IGN DC editor takes on one of the many boss characters in Sega's multiplayer shooter.
GameJam: Outtrigger Release Approaches in Japan
April 16, 2001 - At long last, the release of AM2's Outrigger is coming into view. At…
Play Outtriggers, dESPIRIA and 18 Wheeler Early!
August 24, 2000 - Japan's Dreamcast Magazine is going through a few changes, it seems. …
New Shots of Outtrigger on Dreamcast
May 19, 2000 - Sega of Japan has just released the latest batch of images for AM2's…
Hands On Playtest: Outtrigger
December 1, 1999 - While the PC has been home to some fantastic multiplayer deathmatch…
New Pictures and Info on Outtriggers
September 10, 1999 - Set for release on the DC-friendly Naomi arcade hardware, AM2's latest…

subset: commoncrawl


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April 9, 2011
My homie Angie took this photo a couple hours ago of Drake on the sands of South Beach. I thought I'd post for all you Drake fans [and groupies] to let you know Drizzy is out and about in #the305. So start making your plans if you're trying to accidentally run into him.
Shouts to Angie / www.Styluxe.com
CategoriesGossipPhoto Of The Day


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"But as they sailed he fell asleep: and there came down a storm of wind on the lake; and they were filled with water, and were in jeopardy."
Related quotes
"You know you're in love when you can't fall asleep because reality is finally better than your dreams."
"I don?t think I fell asleep. You can?t use that as an excuse when you don?t get a lot of action. There?s going to be periods like that all the time. I hold myself accountable. I should have been a lot better."
"I kind of fell asleep on the second shot. The green is about the size of Texas and I still managed to miss it. Then, I fell in love with the line on my putt (from 8 feet), but forgot about the speed."
"In that third quarter, we fell asleep at the wheel and they kept playing and they got easy baskets. When a team like Detroit gets easy baskets, you're in for a long night."


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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | Official Merchandise
Set for release this December, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, also known simply as Rogue One, takes place before the events of Star Wars: A New Hope and tells the story of resistance fighters (Felicity Jones, Diego Luna) who have united on a daring mission to steal the Empire's plans for the Death Star at a time when the Galactic Empire is at the height of its power and their ultimate weapon is nearly complete. Set to have a darker, grittier tone than we've seen from any Star Wars movie before, as the excitement for the new film builds, shop our range of official Rogue One merchandise right here and let the countdown begin!
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Micaela Greg Spectrum Scarf
Micaela Greg Spectrum Scarf
Extra soft, heavyweight wool scarf in signature Micaela Greg geometric pattern. 100% Extra Fine Italian Merino Wool. Made in San Francisco.
Known for stocking local designers and hard to find labels, Brooklyn's O.N.A. boutique has the well-heeled heading to Prospect Heights. Owner Magda Jaworska left the retail scene of Williamsburg to pave the way with her own shop in the up-and-coming neighborhood. Accessible and girly with an edge is their MO. Shop brands such as Dusen Dusen, Ilana Kohn, First Rite and more.
Do you have questions about this product? We're here to help!


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For many, many years now, there have been an insurmountable amount of women involved with comedy that have made us damn near piss ourselves in laughter. Many of them include ladies such as Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, Lisa Lampanelli, Sarah Silverman and so many others. As well as being funny, these ladies are smokin' hot which makes them 100 times more awesome in my books with the addition of having a fun personality. With this in mind, the April 2008 issue of "Vanity Fair" has fulfilled one of my greatest dreams...putting all these ladies together in one hot photo shoot.
In their next issue, "Vanity Fair" has taken the female comedy legends of today and set them up in various poses, both funny and quite erotic (especially the cover). This shoot includes gorgeous actresses and comedians such as Tina Fey, Sarah Silverman, Jenna Fischer, Amy Poehler, Pam Greer and many more. I've personally bought this issue already and I love it. My only complaint though is that all of them didn't appear on the cover and I'd rather see Jenna Fischer cupping Tina Fey's breast in the cover photo than Amy.
So gents, enjoy the scans of the magazine below which are courtesy of "Tina-Fey.org" and enjoy the behind-the-scenes clip below which shows all the ladies as they get ready for the shoot from "JennaFischerFan.org". Enjoy! (P.S. The girl in the 5th photo is not Amy Winehouse, it's actually Sarah Silverman with a wig on!)


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Houston Astros right fielder Richard Hidalgo was shot in the left forearm during an apparent carjacking in Venezuela, but he was out of the hospital yesterday, The Houston Chronicle reported.
Chris Leible, who works for Hidalgo's agent, Peter Greenberg, told the newspaper that the player was shot about 9 p.m. Thursday. Hidalgo is recovering at home in Venezuela.
''He's doing O.K.,'' Leible said. ''He was waiting for a friend outside in his truck, and he basically got carjacked.''
The newspaper reported that Hidalgo, 27, is expected to return to Houston on Sunday for more medical tests. ''He's going to get checked out further, but there's no ligament damage, no broken bones,'' Leible said.
Mets third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo said he spoke with Hidalgo following the shooting. Nothing too bad happened, he told The Chronicle for the article on its Web site.Continue reading the main story
Hidalgo, who signed a four-year, $32 million contract with the Astros, missed the final six weeks of the season because of a strained hip. He hit .235 with 15 home runs and 48 runs batted in in 114 games.
THOME WAITING FOR FINAL OFFER: Jim Thome's agent said he wants the Cleveland Indians to make their final offer by Monday.
''His wife is due with the baby,'' the agent, Pat Rooney, said yesterday. ''They would like to get moving on this and get the process going.'' Thome's wife, Andrea, is expecting the couple's first child around Christmas.
Cleveland has made an offer thought to be worth $40 million to $48 million over four years. Thome, 32, is also considering an offer from the Philadelphia Phillies, whose proposal is thought to be worth $75 million over five years.
SALMON WINS HUTCH AWARD: Right fielder Tim Salmon of the World Series champion Anaheim Angels has won the 2002 Hutch Award, which is given to a player who displays honor, courage and dedication to baseball while overcoming adversity in their personal or professional lives.
The award is given each year by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle in memory of Hutchinson, the former Detroit, St. Louis and Cincinnati manager who was from Seattle and died of cancer in 1964.
Salmon and his wife, Marci, started the Tim Salmon Foundation, which donates $100 for every run batted in each season to Family Solutions and Laurel House. He also gives 200 tickets for each Angels home game to youth and charity groups.Continue reading the main story


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If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.
Learn more about our returns policy
Description: Adult development and learning have always existed as two separate fields of study, with development falling under psychology and learning under education. Recent advances in theory, research, and practice, however, have made it clear that an important reciprocal relationship exists between them: advances in development frequently lead to learning, and conversely, learning quite often fuels development. The synchronicity between development and learning is responsible for positive changes in many capacities, including insight, intelligence, reflective and meta-cognition, personality expression, interpersonal competence, and self-efficacy. This synchronicity is also leading to the growth of a new discipline at the borders of adult development and learning. The Handbook of Adult Development and Learning is the first to bring together the leading scholars from both adult development and learning to explore what will form the foundation for this new discipline--the latest research at the intersection of these fields. It examines six major aspects of their intersection: foundations, key areas of integration, the self system, higher reaches of development and learning, essential contexts, and specific applications. An introductory chapter explains why it is so important to recognize and fuel the growth of this new discipline. Subsequent chapters review the latest theoretical and empirical literature and provide a rich itinerary for future research. This handbook is a must-read for all who promote optimal aging. It will be an invaluable reference for scholars in development and education, as well as rich resource for policy makers and practitioners, such as corporate executives and human-resource personnel.
Limited time offer:
Get the first one free! (?)
All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.
List price: $95.00Copyright year: 2006Publisher: Oxford University Press, IncorporatedPublication date: 3/30/2006Binding: HardcoverPages: 600Size: 7.00" wide x 9.75" long x 1.25" tall Weight: 2.684Language: English
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The ever-spinning circle of love and hate can be hard to fathom. Sometimes we win, and our hearts endure in a constellation that will burn forever as a reminder of the radiance that binds each of our hearts.
Other times we lose, and we remember that people are a pile of twot, and we're most likely going to die alone. A yellow stain in the sheets, a frayed curtain in the window, and a cold pizza in the tray.
If you enjoyed the existential elements of this exploration into love and pain, but would prefer to have a more science-based world view, you should check out 23 Of The World's Most Amazingly Unhelpful Fun Facts.


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WhiteThe Screw Loose L/S Tee features a lil tribute to that piece of steel that ensures fin and board stay connected. Large back print and small chest print with pocket and random phone number running down the left sleeve. We've used a slightly heavier weight cotton jersey on this one.The Screw Loose L/S Tee is a standard fit. The model featured is 6'1" and wearing a Large. The tee sports a woven TCSS label on the inside back neck and has been pre-washed to ensure no further shrinkage after washing at home. Enjoy!$29.99 AUD
or make 4 interest-free payments of $7.49 AUD fortnightly with More info
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International shipping costs are influenced by the size and weight of the product and your location, exact shipping costs are calculated in the shopping cart and will be added to the order total before checkout.
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For International deliveries we use Australia Post - Registered International Service. For an estimation of your delivery click here.


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Click a Cherokee
mattress retailer on the map or in the list below to find out more information,
including brands they carry, current mattress promotions, consumer reviews, store location details, and more.
Mattress Stores Near Cherokee, IA (3 found nearby) Expand search to 50 miles
|Click name for Retailer Info
|Click address for Store Location Info
|Carey's Furniture
|107 E Main St, Cherokee, IA show on map
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|Robinson's Carpet & Furniture
|900 N 2nd St, Cherokee, IA show on map
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|Wilson TV & Appliance
|211 W Main St, Cherokee, IA show on map
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Mattress Shoppers: See a store in our area mattress info that's been closed or renamed? Know another mattress store near , IA that should be included on this map? If so, please let us know about it! Your feedback can be sent to: storefinder [at] goodbed [dot] com.
Mattress Retailers: See outdated store details for one of your mattress stores near , IA? Claim your store profile here. Have a mattress store in the area that's not listed on GoodBed yet? Add a new store profile here.


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ITS web designer scores high in Magento Front End Developer exam
With members of the ITS Web team passing their Magento exams, you would expect there to be some pressure on other members about to sit theirs. Luckily for ITS, Ryan works well under pressure and scored a huge 91% on his Front End Developer exam.
Noting that the required pass grade for this exam is 65%, Ryan's score of 91% demonstrates his commitment to study and the prior level of Magento experience he has obtained. A Magento Front End Developer, creates and customizes Magento themes, Ryan has demonstrated a thorough understanding of Magento's theming components and the ability to modify the user interface according to best practices.
Ryan can now join other members of the team as a certified Magento developer.
Congratulations to Ryan.
With the majority of the team now certified, ITS Web can now work towards its goal of becoming a Magento partner, increasing its value to clients through Magento's partner resources.
The Magento Partner Programme will ensure a level of trust with clients, demonstrating the quality of work ITS Web already produces. With access to Magento training platform our developers will maintain their high level of knowledge shown in passing these exams.
You can view some of our more recent projects under the Our Work section on the website, also check out our Magento page.
More of the team will soon become Magento Certified in the coming months. We wish them all the best of luck.
About ITS Web
ITS Web is a digital creative agency specialising in the creation and development of websites, e-commerce, digital signage, responsive solutions, branding and print design. It helps businesses communicate with their customers more effectively across all types of media.


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On Wednesday, it is my 21st birthday and I am so excited. I wonder what I will get, any birthday party idea's that are easy to put on.
These are my fave recent pics, who ever put them up thank you, they are really great. I love the Romeo and Juliet one, it brings back the movie alive. Plus I love the Lord of the Rings one and the vampire diaries one. Plus the twilight one, they are all great. I just love them. In the vampire Diaires, one is that Katherine or Elena Gilbert. I was just asking?


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Greedy bosses cheating staff out of thousands of pounds by failing to pay the minimum wage are being named and shamed in a tough Government crackdown.
Employers – including a top private school, a well-known tool hire firm and a hair salon – are among 25 businesses caught breaking the law .
The Department for Business has taken the unusual step of exposing the firms, which owe staff more than £43,000 and have been fined more than £21,000.
Lib Dem business minister Jenny Willott said: "Paying less than the minimum wage is wrong. If employers break the law they need to know that they will face tough consequences."
Ministers have previously been criticised for identifying only a handful of offenders – and unions have called on the Government to target bigger firms.
The prestigious Cargilfield School in Edinburgh – which charges fees of up to £17,910 a year – was one of those rapped. It underpaid an artist in residence £3,739.
Spokesman Linda Bain blamed an "administrative error" and said the money owed had been paid with interest. Another firm, Renaissance Hair & Beauty on The Wirral, Merseyside, underpaid three workers a total of £7,310.
And HSS Hire Services in Manchester failed to pay £149 to 15 staff members. The crackdown comes after last week's Queen's Speech included plans to hike top fines to £20,000 per worker affected.
Labour want that raised to £50,000 and more – and bigger – firms brought to book. Shadow trade minister Ian Murray said: "We've only seen a handful named and shamed and that's not good enough.
"The Government has refused to back Labour's plans for better enforcement and cruelly misled hardworking families by raising hopes and promising to raise minimum pay to £7 then failing to deliver."
The Low Pay Commission estimates nearly 1.39 million are on minimum pay. It will rise in October from £6.31 to £6.50 an hour for those 21and over and from £5.03 to £5.13 for 18 to 20-year-olds.
The rest of the employers and the amounts they underpaid:
Arthur Simpson & Co, Bradford, West Yorks: £6,426
Central Heating Services Ltd, Hants: £6,200 to four staff
A2ZEE Construction Ltd, Cramlington, Northumberland: £3,375 to 14 workers
Eugenio, Bristol: £3,037 to two workers
Mr and Mrs Hampton, The Wheatsheaf Inn, Cheshire: £2,057 to five workers
Steven Stainton Joinery, Cumbria: £1,415
Runbaro Ltd, Swindon: £1,413
The Bath Hotel, Reading: £1,237 to two workers
Classic Carpentry, Godalming, Surrey: £1,236
We are Mop! Ltd, London: £1,018 to two workers
Legends hairdressers, Colchester, Essex: £823
Saftdwin Ltd, Hampshire: £806 to two workers
Master Distribution Ltd, Essex: £718
Perth Hotels Ltd, Perth: £556
Bryants Nurseries Ltd, Hertfordshire: £494
Dove Mill Retail Outlet Ltd, Bolton, Gtr Manchester: £461
Luigi's Little Italy Ltd, Yorkshire: £281 to five workers
CPS SW Ltd, Exmouth: £261
Avenue Agricultural, Northants: £256
Dakal Ltd, Northampton: £252 to two workers
Zoom Ltd, Havant, Hants: £242 to three workers
Sun Shack Ltd, Hamilton, South Lanarkshire: £134 to eight workers


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Social commerce won't be just the playground of Internet giants Groupon, Google and Facebook. White label social commerce platform providers will allow any publishing entrepreneur to easily build social buying applications.
In my previous post, I discussed how the success of social commerce hinges on media distribution – how to get social deals noticed by consumers. For startups, it's now challenging to build a vanilla Groupon clone in cities where Groupon and other competitors have market share simply because the markets are already mature. Nevertheless, this is not the social buying end game; social commerce is a blue ocean that will spawn opportunities. I'll be delineating these opportunities on Daily Deal Media.
The next stage of social buying will be the development of niche categories. For example, golf is a perfect "Groupon-able" item:
- Tee times are perishable, ideally every hour should be booked.
- Golf courses in the Sun Belt need customers all year round. In colder climes, courses need customers in early spring and late fall. Golfers will purchase a deep discount greens fee coupon that expires on May 31 on the off chance the weekend weather is nice (San Francisco has been warmer this January week than it usually is in July)
- Golfers are enthusiastic about their hobby. Hook them on discount greens fees, and get local sporting goods stores to offer discount equipment and balls.
Finally, niche group buying can be localized. I expect a number of regional / state / local golf social buying systems to launch across America because there are low barriers to entry. A deal syndication marketplace will evolve to expose an inventory of golf deals that can be shared across these systems. Organizations like the PGA could become involved in branding.
Here's a list of niche social buying opportunities with examples:
Thematic and cultural
- Mothers' groups and women focused services (Plum District, Juice in the City)
- Teens (surprised not to find any)
- Men focused services (Thrillist / from Yipit blog)
- Cause funding services (Causeon)
- International (Exclusively.in)
- Ethnic groups (JDeal for Jewish)
- Professional businesses – real estate, legal, accounting
- Green (Gathergreen)
- Adult services (Exoticdeals)
- Electronics
- Software (Appsumo)
- Beauty (Beautylish)
- Beer, wine and liquor (Daily Wine Deals)
- Luxury goods (Gilt)
- Clothing / kids, women, designer fashions (Beyond the Rack)
- Etsy modeled hand made and vintage products
- Houseware (Housewaredeals)
- Books and eBooks
- Jewelry (Sharkstores is building a product based portfolio)
- Watches (Chronoshark)
Expect brand retailers like BevMo or Pottery Barn to develop social buying systems.
- Golf / mini-golf (GroupGolfer, Golfon)
- Winter sports, ski resorts
- Sailing and water sports
- Sports and health clubs
- Fishing
- Bowling
- Billiards
- NASCAR and racing
- Go carts
- Sporting goods
Travel & Tourism
- Travel deals – (Travelzoo)
- Theme parks
- Casinos and gambling
- Local things to do / bookings / events (365 Things to Do Austin Deals)
- Vacationing, tours, ballooning, sky diving
- Wine tours
- Classic hobbies – coin and stamp collecting, comics, trading cards
- Restaurants and foodie (Restaurant.com)
- Beer & wine (Daily Wine Deals)
- Home and garden
- Music
- Musical instruments
- Karaoke
- Gaming and social gaming
Resources: Yipit deals directory, Daily Deal Media deals directory
This article was originally publishes on Daily Deal Media January 28, 2011.


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Bryant, Lakers overcome pesky KingsApr 7, 2008 - 5:19 AM By Tom Galland PA SportsTicker Contributing Writer
SACRAMENTO, California (Ticker) -- The Sacramento Kings have enjoyed playing the spoiler role in the ultra-competitive Western Conference playoff race this week. The Los Angeles Lakers made sure they would not be the next victim.
Kobe Bryant poured in 29 points as the Lakers dominated the second half, cruising past the Kings, 114-92, at Arco Arena on Sunday night.
Vladimir Radmanovic added 21 points and tied a career high with 14 rebounds for Los Angeles, which won its fourth consecutive game on the road by shooting 12-of-22 from the arc.
"Tonight, I just kind of told (Radmanovic) we'd like (him) to be a little more consistent," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "Luke (Walton) is going to be out of the ballgame, we'd like to have an effort from you tonight that's a good effort. I didn't say it quite like that, it was a little more ... pungent."
Whatever was said, it worked.
"I just got (the) ball in my hands on rebounds and somehow I made my shots," said Radmanovic, who was just 2-for-8 Friday against Dallas. "(Coach Jackson and I) are working on our anger management. We worked on it today for five minutes. You saw (the result)."
Sacramento had stunned the Denver Nuggets on the road Saturday and dealt a blow to the Houston Rockets four days earlier in a nail-biter at Arco.
The win gave Lakers (53-24) some retribution for a 114-113 loss to Sacramento at the Staples Center on March 9 - keeping them 1 1/2 games back of the conference-leading New Orleans Hornets (54-22).
"We definitely wanted to come in here and have a good game like today, especially with the way they beat us at home and celebrated on our home court," Bryant said. "We wanted to come out and send a message."
Bryant scored 12 points - nailing three from the arc - in the first first five minutes of the third to key a 23-9 burst that gave Los Angeles a 74-54 lead.
The advantage extended to 23 after Sasha Vujacic buried a 3-pointer less than three minutes into the fourth. But Sacramento showed some life with a 13-2 stretch to close within 12 midway through the quarter.
Bryant squelched the comeback attempt with seven points, including his fourth 3-pointer of the night, in the next four minutes to make it 110-88 as Los Angeles pulled away.
"We're a group of guys (who) know how to play this game," said center Pau Gasol, who chipped in with 20 points and nine rebounds. "We have experience, we're unselfish, (and) we just want to win. We're going to do whatever it takes to win and we have a lot of weapons out there."
"Every game is an opportunity for us to get better," said Bryant, who connected on 9-of-15 shots from the floor. "It really doesn't matter where you finish. We want to finish No. 1 just for the sake of being No. 1. But in the Western Conference, it doesn't matter where you end up, you're going to have a tough matchup."
Kevin Martin scored 22 points in 31 minutes for Sacramento.
"We ran out of gas," Martin said. "(Los Angeles) came in here with some rested legs. We played a hard-fought game (Saturday night) with only seven or eight players. (We) can't always say that as an excuse, but you can just tell we ran out of gas tonight."
The loss ended a season-high, four-game winning streak for the Kings.
Sacramento pulled out to a 27-18 lead late in the first quarter on Francisco Garcia's jumper. From there, Los Angeles began to methodically take control of the game.
Radmanovic nailed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to close the first, helping ignite a 14-1 Lakers' run. The 6-10 Serbian struck from long range again with 2:17 to go in the second, giving Los Angeles its largest lead of the half, 49-39.
A brief Sacramento rally cut into the lead and the Lakers took a 51-45 lead into intermission.
Apr 6 11:28 PM
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Lakers vs. KingsApr 6 8:01 PM
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Lakers vs. KingsMar 20 11:40 PM
Related News
- NBA's 6-city tour lets US catch up in 3-on-3 basketball May 21
- Entering Hollywood, Kobe Bryant gets advice from Spielberg May 20
- Towns, Porzingis unanimously selected to All-Rookie 1st team May 19
- Cavs 9-0 in these playoffs, and joining rarefied NBA air May 18
- 76ers win NBA draft lottery, Lakers stay at No. 2, keep pick May 17
- After lots of losing, 76ers hope to win big in NBA lottery May 17
- Jim McMillian, forward on '72 Lakers title team, dead at 68 May 16
- Clarification: Stars fuel hope for mid-major prospects May 13
- LeBron says Curry deserves MVP, debates meaning of award May 11
- Stephen Curry is first unanimous NBA MVP, takes honor again May 10
- Kings' methodical coaching search ended with Dave Joerger May 10
- Kings hire coach Dave Joerger 2 days after firing in Memphis May 9


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Do Tell: Who Do You Buy Gifts For During the Holidays?
Christmas is only 20 days away so if you haven't started shopping yet, you better get to it this weekend because according to Glamour magazine's December issue, 38 percent of women spend 10 or more hours shopping for holiday gifts! That seems a bit excessive to me, but I guess it all depends on how many people you're shopping for. So ladies, whether you're scaling down your celebration this year or going all out, do tell, who are you buying gifts for this holiday?


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Predictions for 2009, Plus How to Survive and Maybe Thrive
2008. (Deep breath.) That was an interesting year.
The belief that the phrase "May you live in interesting times" comes from an ancient Chinese curse is suspect according to Wikipedia.
Many people would counter that Wikipedia itself is suspect, but Wikipedia has become ubiquitous for a reason. It's useful and the price is right. And that reason is plays a roll in this obligatory predictions-for-the-new-year post.
There is certainly an air of gloom across the all the prediction articles and blog posts I've read so far this year, but I think there's a strategy to get through the mess we're in and I'll wrap up with that and go into 2009 with some optimism.
On with the predictions in no particular order.
Prediction #1
I started nearly every morning of 2008 with an hour of reading the Wall Street Journal on my Kindle. 2008 was the first year I read the WSJ with that kind of regularity. I chose to adopt that routine in part because I was starting my own business and I felt I needed to be more attuned to the happenings of business world. That daily chore turned out to be very fascinating reading. The US elections, the sprawling financial crisis, the Olympics, and many other world events produced so many tense, high drama stories I actually woke up early just to read the WSJ some mornings because I wanted to know what happened next. Fiction wishes it could be this good.
The news is not going to suddenly look better in 2009. More of the same roller coaster ride of events simply because this thing isn't over. I wish otherwise, but I think the common wisdom is right; this financial mess is not over.
Prediction #2
You will want, but may not buy, a Kindle. E-books will gain more footing. Why do I think so? I think Kindle version 2 will come out in the next month or so and it will be a little cheaper. Kindle v1 was an amazing device, but version 2 will be a little sexier than the Commodore-64-inspired-design of first generation version. Also, e-books and e-newspapers just make sense in the digital world we're in. They cut back on production cost, physical materials and can be sold for a lower price.
Prediction #3
Ad agencies will continue to "streamline." Regardless of the business you work in, I'm sure there have been layoffs. It's been happening in the ad industry as well. At most holiday parties I've been at this year, it's a common topic of discussion. Who got laid off last month. Who is probably getting laid off next month. But not all hope it lost….
Prediction #4
There will still be advertising and someone will need to think of it and make it. Digital marketing will be the least affected of the channels companies use to reach their customers. From what I've read, we can expect up to a 10% decline in overall ad spending from this recession. That's severe especially when compared to a 1%-2% decline from the 2001 recession. The best news in this scenario is that digital is where spending will be least changed. It may even go up.
Prediction #5
Since budgets will be under a microscope, small operations will benefit. Yes, this sounds like I'm giving myself and my company a pep talk, but I think it's the case. The lower your overhead, the better your chance of winning jobs. I think many agencies know this and that's where prediction #3 came from.
Prediction #6
You won't get a new laptop. The one you've got already is good enough.
Ok, enough of the doom and gloom. I think there will be good things happening in 2009 as well.
Prediction #7
Your mobile phone will get better, even if you don't get a new one. This is primarily for those of you who spent money on a new phone in 2008, especially iPhone owners or any phone that can have applications downloaded to it. Mobile applications keep surprising me with how good they are getting. I find more useful applications that I ever expected for my iPhone and this will continue. Good news for users and mobile app developers.
Prediction #8
More of your extended family and people from your distant past will "friend" you on Facebook. Facebook seems to have found a good formula for connecting people and keeping them engaged. (Did you read the most visited post on SuperGeekery this year about keeping your boss from seeing your status updates? Read it here.)
Prediction #9
Too bad Facebook (and the various social media sites) probably will never live up to the revenue expectations the advertising world has placed on them, at least not in 2009 or even 2010. Marketing to people within their inner social sphere is not the same as marketing to them through traditional media. To do it right will require more attention and thus cost more. Doing this right is not simply buying ad placement or keywords. (Ok, maybe I snuck one more gloomy prediction in there but it's not if you understand how to reach people in the social media space.)
Prediction #10
Someone will figure out a runaway success in Facebook and/or social media marketing. Who? I don't know. But there will be some big success and a bunch of other companies will try to mimic that success and fail because they didn't understand that that success was based on a unique understanding of the audience the brand was trying to reach.
How to survive or thrive.
Enough with the predictions. I've hinted at it already, but I think the path to success in the coming year, really, in any situation, is to be useful.
Look at prediction #10. The reason that I think there will be some runaway success in Facebook marketing is because some company will make an extremely useful "thing" that lives on Facebook and everyone will adopt it because it is fundamentally useful to a large number of people. It may be that "useful" is entertaining you, or saving you money, or telling you that best friend is only one block from where you are right now, all facilitated by ACME brand.
What I see for mobile applications in prediction #7 is the same thing, being useful. The longer this development area is around, the more people are figuring out how to make useful applications for it. It sounds so basic, but I would hate to give up Tip, probably most used iPhone application. (Check it out on the iTunes Store here. It's 99¢ and worth it.)
How can you personally benefit from this? If you make your ideas for your clients, the thing you create, the value you bring to your company or your customers useful, or better yet, invaluably useful, I think this is the path to success even in this coming tough year.
Well, that's it from me. Happy New Year!


text:
Mortal Terror by ArtOfSoulburnWatch
©2012-2017 ArtOfSoulburn
While I can't pinpoint the initial inspiration (this composition just sorta came to me one night while I was drifting off to sleep), the final figure kind of looks like a tribal doll of some sort. Maybe a mechanical voodoo doll who has trapped a mortal soul in an electronic hell. The figure screams in agony at its imprisonment. Modeled in Max, rendered in Brazil, the hair was generated with Wirebundler, and the mist and sky painted in photoshop.
Interesting, from the thumbnail I thought it was some sort of strange architecture. Nice details.
It's interesting, a few people have said it looks like Architecture. Guess I can see that, although it wasn't the original intent Glad you like it.
Amazing work
Damn!!!!! This is awesome.
very cool!
This so cool and seriously disturbing. Its like something that escaped from Event Horizon or Pandorum.
Glad you like it. Ugg, Event Horizon, I have bad memories of that film. Not the film itself, but I was watching it in a hotelroom about 10 years ago when I got a number of death threats on the room phone. Scared the crap out of me. Haven't been able to watch that film since :/
i whip my hair back n fourth
Sinister and alien achritecture, great!
Umm, you do realize that I am Neil Blevins, right? soulburn3d is my handle. Check out www.soulburn3d.com, it redirects to neilblevins.com
LOL....so sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG I feel like an ass!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nono, it's fine. If it had been stolen work, I appreciate that you were looking out for me. It's just not stolen in this case Thanks for visiting!
I never made the connection to Soulburn....duh....you have the Soulburn scripts....and that image stood out to me....so I was all that's Neil's!!!!!
Take care....
Take care....
Sorry you are one of my favorite artists and I was just trying to look out for you!!!!!!
Your work is always, or at least the most often, recognizable at first sight...
Nice job on this one btw!
Nice job on this one btw!
That is a super-awesome design. Sort of looks like a robot made for utility, like for disassembling cars or something, but I also like that its 'face' is kind of ambiguous, that I only see a face because I'm personifying the machine. Awesome job.
Hehe. Actually, I know that demo well, and have spoken to one of its creators a number of times. He was originally inspired by my work when he made that character. I really like how his finished piece turned out, their group did a great job.
ohh, so this model is what inspired the squid in linger in shadows?
One of the inspirations, yes. Not that robotic squids are all that unique, there's lots of us who like em I've certainly been inspired by my share of robotic squids as well, like in the Matrix for example. Hell, I loved the robot squid in the original transformers movie from '86
I see a woman, sad woman.
Two words: final boss.
Looks so cool. B)
Looks so cool. B)
Eery. Wonderfully so.
How creepy and beautiful! It seems as though it could be either doll-sized or city-swallowingly gargantuan, and I like that it works either way.
I can imagine it to be a sort of semi-sentient alien device, and there are thousands of its kind planted all around a planet, sucking the life from it
I can imagine it to be a sort of semi-sentient alien device, and there are thousands of its kind planted all around a planet, sucking the life from it
This is wicked.


text:
Bettercream And Fondant
Decorating By craftybarb Updated 22 Jun 2010 , 7:08am by JaimeAnn
I love the taste of bettercream but wanted to put fondant over it can you do this or is it to light.
Is bettercream like a stabilized whipped cream? my only experience mixing that (frostin' pride here) with fondant was putting fondant flowers on a whipped cake & the fondant kind of melted. The water in the whipped cream base will dissolve the sugar from what I understand.
Maybe you could just use it for the filling?
I have not tried it myself but have seen nmerous posts on here that say not to do it. that it will melt.
Quote by @%username% on %date%


text:
- Doctors
- Arizona
- Tempe
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- Dr. Kenneth J. Busch
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Ratings for Dr. Kenneth J. Busch
I love Dr B he delivered both my children and performed my Hysterectomy. I have been a patient for over 20 years (26 to be exact). He is caring, funny, knowlegeable and an amazing doctor. Thanks for the amazing care over the years!
I have been a patient in this office for over 20 years. The office, staff and Dr. Busch feel like family. They always know who I am when I call, this is unusual for a Dr. office. Dr. Busch always listens to what I have to say and is very honest about his medical oppinion. He would never do anything without making sure that I understood the medical reasons. This is an office that can be trusted to take care of myself and my family. I will be very sad when the day comes that he must retire.
The office looks old and kinda dirty, front staff is a mixed bag, one is kinda gruff and rude and the other was always friendly. I consistently had to wait 20 - 45 minutes for the doctor to actually see me once I was in the examination room, one time about an hour. Dr. Busch is the only doctor in the practice so I get the feeling he runs himself a bit thin trying to keep up with the amount of patients scheduled. Dr. Busch himself had a great bedside manner and sense of humor but I found him lacking when it came to actual delivery... Scared me into inducing when only one day past estimated due date even though there wasn't any medical reason, which led to a lot of unnecessary interventions like continuous monitoring and two days of labor since my body wasn't ready. The doctor only showed up at the very end of my three hours of pushing to basically catch the baby and stitch me up afterward.
Dr. Kenneth J. Busch's Credentials
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- University Of Southern California School Of Medicine (Grad. 1973)
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text: Kestrel Business Park is situated between the nodal links of the M5 junction 29 which serves East Devon and the south coast and the A30 and the Motorway Service Station junction 30 which leads onto the A38 to Plymouth/ Torbay and the A30 westbound to Cornwall. The premises comprise a light industrial premises with integral first floor offices. Within the premises there is an integral WC and kitchen facility. The property is of steel portal frame construction with a reinforced cast in-situ ground bearing concrete floor slab. The roof has three dual pitches and these are weathered in composite profiled plastisol coated cladding sheets and incorporated a series of double skinned roof lights. The property comprises a single industrial building with three double pitched portal framed bays. The internal space is currently configured as 12 units.


text: but here more observation: kerry feels significantly slower then beagle-search when there are more results, most likely due to the fact that it does not show anything before it is finished. that should be changed. moreover nothing in kerry indicates that a search is in progress. the app does not respond to interaction anymore as soon as a search is in progress, you cant stop or change your search, all in all it looks like the app has crashed. therefore I recommend to make a beagle_search like approach where results are shown as soon as they are found. and you can change the search string any time. it also is nice if the search starts with the first letter typed with no need to hit "find now". beagle_search finds more documents then kerry does: 25:28 when searching for an IP address. eventhough I like the fact that kerry gives a lot of info about the found files that should be done in a more organized manner. ordering by document type is desirable! the results should also be presented in a less space consuming way. just loose the whitespace. The fact that kerry shows where the search sequence has been found in the document should not be compromised but compressed. -- kerry matches "elias at asb" when searching for "elias_asb" https://launchpad.net/bugs/42768