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"Three Ds" Explain Mobility's Mysterious Ad Lag
Posted by Puneet Gupta (View Profile | View All Posts) at 9:51 AM
Apps Parents Trust and Kids Love [Source:Jennifer Jolly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMc09SwUkd4]
People my age became acquainted with computing by using clunky desktops and laptops, but today's younger generations are introduced directly to mobile and tablet computers.
Apple ingeniously removed the telephone function from its iPhone to create the iTouch, a mobile computer ideal for children. They can use it to play educational games and take photos of their siblings and school friends. The younger generation is why mobile computing is growing exponentially. Apple isn't the only company on top of this trend. Google's Larry Page maintains that today's generation of kids will be introduced to computing through mobile devices.
The mystery, however, is why this platform lags traditional platforms when it comes to corporate advertising spending and monetization. Here's my take as to why this discrepancy exists. I've distilled these reflections into what I'll call the "three Ds."
- Distribution - Getting a million downloads ain't as impressive as it used to be. It's a pretty saturated and competitive space. Nonetheless, if you crack that magic threshold, you're doing well. One of the neat aspects of the app market is that it's still very much a meritocracy. I don't know if anyone can predict which apps will do well - the best apps are compelling or downright addictive. But good developers will make sure there are hooks from those apps to social media sites with the expectations that they go viral.
But despite the complex social network that promotes apps, the tried and true method for finding out about a mobile app remains - in North America and Western Europe, at least - traditional media outlets like magazines, newspapers, and television. This means big consumer brands have an obvious incentive to keep at least some advertising in traditional media ad not pour every dollar into mobile directly.
- Design - The web has long trumped mobile devices when it comes to where apps first appear. But with the growing popularity of mobile, more developers are starting with mobile apps before launching their web versions. More mobile apps should be a positive development for mobile ads but not all platforms are created equally. Apple users are known for being more willing to pay for apps, which makes them all the more attractive to advertisers and developers.
- Dough - Money makes the social media world go 'round. So far, however, social media giants like Twitter and Facebook have treated mobility more as an afterthought than key strategic driver. Why should they focus on a platform that hadn't been inherently social? Of course, that's changing quickly. You can bet your bottom dollar that social media entrepreneurs are already figuring out ways to reap the benefits of the merging of social media and mobility. It's likely that the social sites themselves will open up their vast storage houses to make money off implied (or actual) online behavior. Simple example: a status change to "single" triggers ads to be served from dating sites.
Of course, in places like India, China, and other rapidly developing economic powerhouses, there's less of a discrepancy between corporate advertising spend and mobility. In some ways, the Western world can perhaps find the answers as to how mobility will play out by simply looking eastward.


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Clemson University iPhone 4/4s Cover
By Rouge
Show off your Clemson University Tiger pride with an iPhone cover sporting orange and purple! Carrot colored pattern with an orchid accent for the monogram shape. These iPhone 4 covers are decorated on the back side only. Colors are not exactly the official university colors.
Main image shows the reverse zigzag pattern.
Available in different bumper and case options:
- Black Frame with Black Rubber Bumper (refillable)
- White Frame with Light Gray Rubber Bumper (refillable)
- Black Snap On Case (no bumper)
- White Snap On Case (no bumper)
Rubber bumper upgrade available for extra impact protection.
The Clemson University colors (purple and orange) in any pattern, accent shape, and with your monogram. Look through the patterns to figure out which one you like best, then get to personalizing! The color palette is shown under the main image.
It's easy to personalize.
- Choose the pattern you prefer - this will be in carrot.
- Pick the accent shape - this will be orchid.
- If choosing text, you MUST choose the solid band accent shape.
- Monogram order: first, LAST, middle. Example: Jessica Marie Tanner would be = jTm
- Text is copy - pasted so make sure to capitalize words or names the way you want it printed. Example: lauren = lauren and Lauren = Lauren when printed on item.
Not sure? Order a proof! Proofs take 3-5 business days to put together and cost $5

subset: commoncrawl


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So, I bought the Yoga for surfers DVD like 3 years ago and did it a fwe times. Really worked well. I somehow lost the DVD and don't feel like re-purchasing it. Does anyone know any free online resources that layout some basic yoga stretching for surfing. Mainly for the leg areas.... I know how to do normal stretching, Im just wondering if there are any things online that have the yoga stretching that Yoga for surfing did... Anyone have some knowledge to kick?
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Thread: Surf stretches/yoga?
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Surf stretches/yoga?


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In 2014, 50 million children under 5 were acutely malnourished and 159 million children had stunted growth. Under-nutrition contributes to nearly half of all child deaths.
Stunting - a sign of chronic under-nutrition and largely irreversible - starts before birth and is caused by poor maternal nutrition, feeding practices and food quality, and frequent infections. It is associated with delays in cognitive and physical development and poor school achievement in later life.
Plan International's parenting and community health programmes strengthen caregivers' capacities to prevent malnutrition through ensuring adequate feeding for boys and girls – including exclusive breastfeeding, complementary feeding, dietary diversity and micronutrient supplementation.
We support community health workers and primary healthcare providers to manage children that are moderately and severely malnourished. In many contexts, nutrition interventions are linked to programming for access to potable water, basic sanitation and improved hygiene habits.
Our child nutrition work supports Sustainable Development Goal targets 2.1 and 2.2, to ensure children's access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food and to end all forms of malnutrition, including stunting and wasting.
Case study: Tackling malnutrition in Guatemala
With 48% of under-5s suffering stunted growth, Guatemala has the highest chronic under-nutrition rate in Latin America and the Caribbean, and sixth highest in the world.
The figure rises to 70% of under 5s with stunted growth in rural, highland Mayan communities. Most of the population in these communities live in poverty, with the family's staple diet consisting of beans, rice and corn.
Subsistence farmers struggle to increase production given the mountainous terrain and vulnerability to climate change which has left some areas with 4 consecutive years of an extended dry spell.
Improving child nutrition
In this context, Plan International Guatemala's Early Childhood Development programming has a strong focus on nutrition and healthy growth. In 2015 more than 4,600 mothers were trained on infant and young child feeding, the importance of growth monitoring, vitamin and micronutrient supplementation and food and nutrition security.
Around 7,000 mothers, fathers and/or caregivers participated in awareness raising activities emphasising other key practices for their children's healthy growth, including timely vaccination for disease prevention, and household/community hygiene practices.
Household food security
In 77 communities located in 5 municipalities of Baja Verapaz, a project financed by the Inter-American Development Bank is being implemented with nearly 2,000 families to increase household food security.
Women's groups have been trained and supported to set up community nutrition committees and collaborate with food production and cooking demonstrations. Participating families report improved access to more diverse and nutritious foods and improved feeding practices for pregnant and lactating women and young children. They show high levels of knowledge around the importance of breastfeeding and personal hygiene.
We have learned how to get organised
"This is the first time we have formed a committee to help the people to have better health, education and nutrition… we have learned how to get organised, we are taught how to grow crops, from the moment we start until we finish," says Gregoria, a mother from Purulhá.
Plan International has also responded in drought-affected areas in partnership with the World Food Program and the Ministry of Health, providing temporary food assistance to 2,000 families.


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Fashionable and eco-friendly, the Westport foaming soap pumps are a must-have for any bathroom. Available in four chic styles, these pumps substantially reduce the amount of soap needed - they're good for the environment and they save you money!
Made in
Enjoy $10.95 postage and packaging nationwide for standard goods. Please note that a small range of our goods fall into a bulky or oversize category. If this is the case the delivery charge will be displayed as per below:
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Please be aware that our parcels are sent E-Parcel with Australia Post so we are able to track all parcels for you. You will be required to sign to confirm receipt of your order. If you are not home at the time of delivery, the post office will leave a card to notify you that the goods can be collected from your nearest post office. We are unable to leave the item without a signature.
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It was the cleanest spaceport McCade had ever seen. He stood for a moment at the head of the landing ramp, looking around at the spotless concrete, the sparkling buildings, the clear sky. The Dovetail was the only ship on the apron, and there were no other people as far as he could see. But it was clean. He could imagine the cleaners coming out of some shed somewhere after the Dovetail left again, in two days, polishing away all signs of its ever having been there.
A breeze came from the west and brought with it the scent of trees and growing things. He knew the port, in the Red Dog district of Loger, was at the edge of the city, but to have no city smell at all was very strange. Every city he'd ever been in, on every world, had had a city smell. Maybe when the wind changed the true aroma of this place would return.
As he stood he saw a low, broad vehicle come out of one of the terminal buildings, all glass and chrome, and come floating centimeters above the ground toward the Dovetail in a graceful, unhurried curve. And then he felt a touch at his elbow.


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Does Sci-Fi Blockbuster 'Avatar' Have a Racist Subtext?
"Avatar" may be number one at the box office, but on the blogosphere and Twitter the buzz is growing about the film's supposed racist subtext. The premise of the movie is simple and somewhat familiar: a White man goes and lives with the "natives", learns their ways and somehow becomes their leader. If it sounds familiar it may be because the theme has been visited in movies like Kevin Costner's "Dances with Wolves" and last summer's South African sci-fi "District 9" says writer Annalee Newitz on the sci-fi blog I09. Newitz calls the all too familiar plot "a fantasy about race told from the point of view of White people."
Read More
Latest News


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Definition Edit
Energy delivery systems are the backbone of the energy sector — a network of processes that produce, transfer, and distribute energy and the interconnected electronic and communication devices that monitor and control those processes.
Overview Edit
Energy delivery systems include control systems, the brains that operate and monitor our energy infrastructure. Two examples of such systems are the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and the Distributed Control Systems (DCS). Most early SCADA system designs did not anticipate the security threats posed by the integration of advances in computers and communication such as off-the-shelf software and operating systems, public telecommunications networks, and the Internet.
Security Edit
Energy delivery systems have become more productive and efficient, but the energy sector is faced with an unprecedented challenge in protecting systems against cyber incidents and threats.


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Acronyms in Unit One I.T Theory
Acronyms appearing in Output Devices
Acronyms in Storage Devices
MB - Megabytes
GB - Gigabytes
TB - Terabytes
CD(-R,-RW,-ROM) - Compact Disk (Recordable, Rewritable and Read Only Memory
WORM - Write Once Read Many)
DVD - Digital Versatile Disk
DAT - Digital Audio Tapes
USB - Universal Series Bus
Operating Systems and Graphical User Interfaces
OS - Operating System
GUI - Graphical User Interface
WIMP - Windows, Icons, Menus and Pointers
Other Useful Acronyms
CPU - Central Processing Unit
PDA - Personal Digital Assistant
ROM - Read Only Memory
RAM - Random Access Memory
Acronyms appearing in Input Devices
ATM - Automated Teller Machines
EPOS - Electronic Point Of Sale
DPI - Dots Per Inch
LCD - Liquid Crystal Display
VDU - Visual Display Unit
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International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, Jardi´n Bota´nico Sur, Ri´o Piedras, Puerto Rico 00926-1119 Puerto Rico
Center for Ecological Analysis of Lidar, Colorado State University, College of Natural Resources, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1472
Department of Geography, University of California - Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
We estimate the age of humid lowland tropical forests in Rondoˆnia, Brazil, from a somewhat densely spaced time series of Landsat images (1975-2003) with an automated procedure, the Threshold Age Mapping Algorithm (TAMA), first described here. We then estimate a landscape-level rate of aboveground woody biomass accumulation of secondary forest by combining forest age mapping with biomass estimates from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Though highly variable, the estimated average biomass accumulation rate of 8.4 Mg ha-1> yr-1> agrees well with ground-based studies for young secondary forests in the region. In isolating the lowland forests, we map land cover and general types of old-growth forests with decision tree classification of Landsat imagery and elevation data. We then estimate aboveground live biomass for seven classes of old-growth forest. TAMA is simple, fast, and self-calibrating. By not using between-date band or index differences or trends, it requires neither image normalization nor atmospheric correction. In addition, it uses an approach to map forest cover for the self-calibrations that is novel to forest mapping with satellite imagery; it maps humid secondary forest that is difficult to distinguish from old-growth forest in single-date imagery; it does not assume that forest age equals time since disturbance; and it incorporates Landsat Multispectral Scanner imagery. Variations on the work that we present here can be applied to other forested landscapes. Applications that use image time series will be helped by the free distribution of coregistered Landsat imagery, which began in December 2008, and of the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite Vegetation Product, which simplifies the use of GLAS data. Finally, we demonstrate here for the first time how the optical imagery of fine spatial resolution that is viewable on Google Earth provides a new source of reference data for remote sensing applications related to land cover.
Eileen H. Helmer ; Michael A. Lefsky and Dar A. Roberts"Biomass accumulation rates of Amazonian secondary forest and biomass of old-growth forests from Landsat time series and the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System", J. Appl. Remote Sens. 3(1), 033505 (January 27, 2009). ; http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/1.3082116
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Catch may refer to:
- The recurring ability to catch enemies.
- The recurring ability to catch items.
This is a disambiguation page: a list of articles associated with the same title. If an internal link referred you to this page, you may wish to change the link to point directly to the intended article.


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Essential Oils 101: Family Health and Home
Stephanie Holdcroft
Thursday, June 19, 2014 from 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM (CDT)
Who's Going
San Francisco, California
London, United Kingdom
Florence, Italy
Event Details
Pure essential oils have been known for centuries as life enhancing gifts from the plant kingdom. Better known as God's original Medicine, with over 600 references in the bible. Today they arereemerging as the key solution to getting to the root cause and restoring health to families.
Learn how essential oils can help you become a confident parent at taking care of your family's health issues – naturally!
When & Where
Hairbenders Salon
802 E Blanco Rd
Thursday, June 19, 2014 from 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM (CDT)
Add to my calendar
Stephanie Holdcroft
Stephanie is a wife, nurse, and mother of five children, who have blessed her life tremendously! She is also a homeschool mom and this is where her story begins. In May of 2009 her, and her husband Brad, were at a homeschool convention when they happened to listen in on a Nutrition 101 curriculum class that would change their lives forever. They were not familiar with essential oils and were very intrigued about this company called Young Living. Needless to say, after the class they purchased their premium starter kit in which began their oil journey. They fell in love with the oils, and have been using them ever since.
Stephanie, and her husband Brad work together, sharing, and educating, empowering, and equipping folks with the necessary God-given tools that they need to take control of their health. It is thier hope that you too will live a life of wellness,purpose,and abundance.


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RECIPE SECTION - Over 10,000 Recipes
Home | Food Articles | Food Trivia | Today in Food History | Food Timeline | Recipes
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A jar of this jelly is always warmly received. I like to trim the lid with a bandanna.
Lori McMullen, Victoria, Texas
Prep: 15 min.
Process: 10 min. + standing
Yield: 7 half-pints.
• 2 jalapeno peppers, seeded and chopped
• 3 medium green peppers, cut into 1-inch pieces, divided
• 1½ cups white vinegar, divided
• 6½ cups sugar
• 1/2 to 1 teaspoon cayenne pepper
• 2 pouches (3 ounces each) liquid fruit pectin
• About 6 drops green food coloring, optional
• Cream cheese and crackers, optional
1) In a blender or food processor, place the jalapenos, half of the green peppers and 1/2 cup vinegar; cover and process until pureed.
2) Transfer to a large Dutch oven or kettle. Repeat with remaining green peppers and another 1/2 cup vinegar. Add sugar, cayenne and remaining vinegar to pan. Bring to a rolling boil over high heat, stirring constantly.
3) Quickly stir in pectin. Return to a rolling boil; boil
for 1 minute, stirring constantly.
4) Remove from the heat. Skim off foam. Add food coloring if desired. Ladle hot liquid into hot jars, leaving 1/4-in. headspace. Adjust caps. Process for 10 minutes in a boiling-water bath. Serve over cream cheese with crackers if desired.
Editor's Note: When cutting or seeding hot peppers, use rubber or plastic gloves to protect your hands. Avoid touching your face.
Nutrition Facts:
2 tablespoons equals 92 calories, trace fat (trace saturated fat), 0 cholesterol, 1 mg sodium, 24 g carbohydrate, trace fiber, trace protein.
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- Schizont
- Schizont Schi"zont (sk[imac]"z[o^]nt or sk[imac]z"[o^]nt), n. [Gr. ?, ?, p.pr., cleaving.] (Zo["o]l.) In certain Sporozoa, a cell formed by the growth of a sporozoite or merozoite (in a cell or corpuscle of the host) which segment by superficial cleavage, without encystment or conjugation, into merozoites. [Webster 1913 Suppl.]
The Collaborative International Dictionary of English. 2000.


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|Message view
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|Tim Whittington <tim.whitting...@orionhealth.com>
|Re: [PROPOSAL] Log rotation in Tomcat Connector
|Wed, 06 Jan 2010 02:28:47 GMT
For consistency (with Apache at least) I've gone down the road of mirroring the functionality of rotatelogs, which was fairly easy. I'm doing some long running tests (I'm seeing some weird DLL unloading/crashing behaviour in IIS 5.1 that I want to replicate and account for), but if that works out I'll port the changes to trunk (I'm developing on JK_1_2_28 at the moment for some reason) and submit a patch. The downside of the rotatelogs approach is that it's not easy to do log pruning (since the filenames are based on the time the log rotates, rather than some kind of backup suffix scheme), so I may do nothing about that for now - the best I could do is keep a list in memory and prune, which is sub-optimal. cheers tim ----- Original Message ----- From: "Rainer Jung" <firstname.lastname@example.com> To: "Tomcat Developers List" <email@example.com> Sent: Saturday, 19 December, 2009 1:01:53 AM GMT +12:00 New Zealand Subject: Re: [PROPOSAL] Log rotation in Tomcat Connector Hi Tim, On 18.12.2009 03:26, Tim Whittington wrote: > Hi all > > We're experiencing issues with the Tomcat Connector log in some IIS production sites where the log file grows to a very large size (8GB on one site). > This is almost entirely due to connection errors between the front end and back end produced when the back-end Tomcat is restarted after crashes or for maintenance. > (we have some very high request volume sites - some with hundreds of concurrent requests -, so you can get thousands of these errors on each restart). > > I'm thinking about implementing log file rotation in the IIS connector as a solution to this, and wanted to canvas opinions on alternatives and implementation first. Good thing, that was open for a long time for the isapi redirector. > What I intend implementing is: > * Daily log file rolling (not configurable) as a clone of the log_to_file function (check rotation, close and reopen log file, continue) > * Very simple configuration for a daily rolling file appender - basically 'on/off' and 'number of days to keep', possibly a single rotateable=bool/int parameter. > * The log file name suffix will be appended/inserted to the name of the file specified in the connector config with a static pattern e.g. YYYY_MM_dd > * The log method(s) will be guarded with a mutex to protect the rollover operation > * I'll only be doing this for the ISAPI redirector at present (so won't need to refactor jk_mt.h to make the locking primitives available on prefork builds) > * On rollover, the file will be closed and a new one opened. Older files will be pruned. > * Rollover checking can be a simple mod operation on the timestamp (since I'm not intending to handle log formats) > > Questions I have: > * Short of silencing the logging, is there an alternative to rolling the file? (perhaps rolling up of repeated connection errors?) > * Are there any performance concerns about using a mutex on each log? (log4c uses this approach, so I presume it's not prohibitive) > * Does anyone have any other input into config/behaviour? Mutex ===== - log rotation for mod_jk with Apache is done using an external process and logging through a pipe. The external process often used with Apache is rotatelogs, that comes with apache and thus is also available under ASL 2.0 - log path for Apache should not change seriously, e.g. no additional mutex when running mod_jk inside Apache. - for the redirector I'd say adding a mutex is OK, if it is acquired after the log line has been formatted and immediately before the line gets written to the file. So you'll only lock the access to the file. In apache-2.0/mod_jk.c you will find for example jk_log_to_file(), which does rv = apr_global_mutex_lock(jk_log_lock); if (rv != APR_SUCCESS) { ... log error via Apache ... } rv = apr_file_write(p->jklogfp, what, &wrote); if (rv != APR_SUCCESS) { ... log error via Apache ... } rv = apr_global_mutex_unlock(jk_log_lock); if (rv != APR_SUCCESS) { ... log error via Apache ... } Rolling ======= You could also think about doing the rolling externally like we do with Apache and pipes in case the user configured a pipe as the log file. I'm not sure about ISAPI and the IIS process management, whether this is feasable, e.g. all IIS processes sharing the file descriptor to the pipe etc. Apart from that I think having a simple daily solution, which can be activated or deactivated would already be a very useful start. We can always add more features, once the basics are there. Obvious possible extensions are more fine grained rolling intervals, alternatively basing the rolling on file size, flexible file name pattern, etc. Pruning ======= I'm not a big fan of pruning the old files directly from the server process. I'd say pruning is part of some external log file management, which usually does compression, transferral to a log server and removing old files once they are old enough or have been relocated. Automatic pruning is nice for people to get a quick start withour caring about those details, but it should at least be possible to turn it off. Log message dedup ================= Reducing the log volume is not easy to do. Of course we could keep track of state and not log problems we already noted, but then you would also like to log when the state changes to something better. That means comparing state also in case something worked correctly and will make our cluttered code even more difficult to understand. I remember Mladen once mentioning, that he also has some ideas or possibly code for log rotation in the isapi redirector, so he might want to chime in as well. Thanks for taking the initiative! Regards, Rainer --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, e-mail: email@example.com For additional commands, e-mail: email@example.com
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Access Keys:
First Student
First Transit
First Bus
First Rail
Tim O' Toole
Chief Executive
We provide safe, reliable and cost-effective transportation for students
About FirstGroup
Click on image to zoom
First Student is the largest provider of student transportation in North America – twice the size of the next largest competitor. Industry-leading safety programmes, strong customer relationships and service record are key differentiators.
Home to school transportation is crucial for communities in North America and First Student is the largest operator of the familiar yellow school bus which keeps millions of students moving every school day. We are twice the size of the next largest competitor with almost a quarter of the outsourced market.
We operate in 470 locations across the US and Canada, working with school districts to provide safe, reliable and cost-effective transportation for five million students per school day. We currently operate more than 1,100 contracts which typically have a three to five year duration. We employ 50,500 people and have 44,000 buses.
For more than a century, we've provided industry-leading transportation services by emphasising the relationship with our customer and putting students first. We work closely with school officials to understand their unique challenges, developing solutions that save money, improve safety, drive efficiency and provide peace of mind. Student safety is the primary concern of school districts, parents and communities and we invest millions in equipment, technology and driver training, making our school buses one of the safest forms of transportation on the road today.
As the industry leader, First Student is an advocate for new industry standards and innovative technologies. And that means our customers can count on leading-edge technology that makes us safer, more reliable and more efficient.
In addition to our main contracts we also provide charter hire services for school and non-school activities, including the Super Bowl, NASCAR auto racing and the PGA golf tour.
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The glomerular filtration rate estimated by new and old equations as a predictor of important outcomes in elderly patients
The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases with age, and new glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations have recently been validated. The epidemiology of CKD in older individuals and the relationship between a low estimated glomerular filtration rate as calculated by these equations and adverse outcomes remains unknown.
Data from the BELFRAIL study, a prospective, population-based cohort study of 539 individuals aged 80 years and older, were used. For every participant, five equations were used to calculate estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine and/or cystatin C values: MDRD, CKD-EPIcreat, CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst, and BIS equations. The outcomes analyzed included mortality combined with the necessity of new renal replacement therapy, severe cardiovascular events, and hospitalization.
During the follow-up period, which was an average of 2.9 years, 124 participants died, 7 required renal replacement therapy, 271 were hospitalized, and 73 had a severe cardiovascular event. The prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate values <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 differed depending on the equation used as follows: 44% (MDRD), 45% (CKD-EPIcreat), 75% (CKD-EPIcyst), 65% (CKD-EPIcreatcyst), and 80% (BIS). All of the glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations revealed that higher cardiovascular mortality was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rates and that higher probabilities of hospitalization were associated with estimated glomerular filtration rates <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. A lower estimated glomerular filtration rate did not predict a higher probability of severe cardiovascular events, except when using the CKD-EPIcyst equation. By calculating the net reclassification improvement, CKD-EPIcyst and CKD-EPIcreatcyst were shown to predict mortality (+25% and +18%) and severe cardiovascular events (+7% and +9%) with the highest accuracy. The BIS equation was less accurate in predicting mortality (-12%).
Higher prevalence of CKD were found using the CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst, and BIS equations compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPIcreat equations. The new CKD-EPIcreatcyst and CKD-EPIcyst equations appear to be better predictors of mortality and severe cardiovascular events.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem. First, dialysis and kidney transplantation impose a high cost on society. The cost of dialysis per patient per year in Belgium is more than 50,000 Euros, and >1% of the health budget of the Belgian government is used to cover dialysis costs. Second, patients with CKD have a high risk for cardiovascular events and mortality
The prevalence of CKD, when defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, increases with age. In Western countries
In 2012, three new GFR-estimating equations based on serum creatinine and serum cystatin C values, age, and gender were validated. Two of the studies were based on data from the CKD-EPI consortium
In this study, we used the data from the BELFRAIL study to analyze the ability of GFR, estimated by older equations like the MDRD and CKD-EPI creatinine equations and the three new GFR equations, to predict mortality, necessity of renal replacement therapy (RRT), hospitalization, and severe cardiovascular events.
Study design
The BELFRAIL study is a prospective, observational, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 80 years and older in three well-circumscribed areas in Belgium. The study design and the characteristics of the cohort have previously been described in detail
The participants were recruited to the BELFRAIL study between 2 November 2008 and 15 September 15 2009. The GPs recorded the patients' age, gender, and detailed medical history. The follow-up data regarding severe events in these participants were collected by questioning each participant's GP 18 and 36 months after inclusion and baseline data collection. During this questioning, the following outcome parameters were collected: the exact date and cause of the total and cardiovascular mortality, severe cardiovascular events, necessity of RRT, and the date of and reason for hospitalizations.
Laboratory tests
All blood samples were collected in the morning, and all measurements were performed in the laboratories of the Cliniques Universitaires St. Luc, Brussels. The serum concentration of creatinine was measured in the baseline blood sample using a UniCel DxC 800 Synchron instrument (Beckman Coulter, Inc., Brea, CA, USA). The creatinine assay was based on the Jaffé compensated isotope dilution mass spectrometry method, with total coefficient of variation ranging from 1.6% to 2% (105 to 1,049 μmol/L) in serum
Main parameters
Previously diagnosed hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, and peripheral arterial disease, as well as past and current smoking history, were ascertained by each participant's physician based on the medical files of the participant.
Five different equations were used to estimate the GFR, outlined below.
The isotope dilution mass spectrometry traceable MDRD equation (MDRD)
The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation
The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration cystatin C equation (CKD-EPIcyst)
The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine and cystatin C equation (CKD-EPIcreatcyst)
The Berlin Initiative Study Equation 2 (BIS)
The participants were classified into five categories based on their eGFR as follows: >90, 60 to 90, 45 to 60, 30 to 45, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m2.
Statistical methods
Baseline differences between the groups with different eGFR values were assessed using the chi-square test for categorical parameters and one-way analysis of variance for normally distributed variables.
A Cox proportional hazards model was used to study the risk associated with the various CKD categories based on the different GFR-estimating equations for 'renal death' (defined as mortality or the necessity of RRT), cardiovascular mortality, severe cardiovascular events, and hospitalization. Two models were used. The first model (model 1) was adjusted for age and gender, and the second model (model 2) was adjusted for known risk factors (age, gender, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, history of a serious cardiovascular event, and smoking status). The odds ratios (ORs) for having no events (mortality, necessity of RRT, severe cardiovascular event, or hospitalization) during the follow-up period were estimated using logistic regression. The same models (models 1 and 2) were used to make adjustments. All of these analyses were performed using SPSS version 19.
The net reclassification improvement (NRI)
All of the necessary baseline data were available for all of the GFR calculations in 539 of the 567 participants in the BELFRAIL study. None of these 539 persons were lost to follow-up. The mean follow-up period from the baseline blood collection was 2.9 ±0.3 years. During this period, 124 of the participants died and 7 required RRT. Furthermore, 271 participants were hospitalized at least once, and 73 had at least one severe cardiovascular event. Table
For the entire study population, the mean eGFR determined was 64 ±22 mL/min using the MDRD equation, 61 ±19 mL/min using the CKD-EPIcreat equation, 49 ±21 mL/min using the CKD-EPIcyst equation, 54 ±27 mL/min using the CKD-EPIcreatcyst equation, and 48 ±15 mL/min using the BIS equation. The prevalence of CKD defined as eGFR <60 mL/min differed based on the equation used and was as follows: 44% (MDRD), 45% (CKD-EPIcreat), 75% (CKD-EPIcyst), 65% (CKD-EPIcreatcyst), and 80% (BIS). The prevalence of severe CKD, defined as eGFR <30 mL/min, also differed as follows: 6% (MDRD), 7% (CKD-EPIcreat), 20% (CKD-EPIcyst), 13% (CKD-EPIcreatcyst), and 10% (BIS).
Significantly higher cardiovascular mortality was observed when the eGFR decreased in all five of the GFR-estimating equations (Figure
Figure 1
Cardiovascular mortality (A) and severe cardiovascular events (B) depending on the eGFR value estimated by different expressed as hazard ratios (HR) Values greater than 1.0 indicate an increased risk.
Cardiovascular mortality (A) and severe cardiovascular events (B) depending on the eGFR value estimated by different expressed as hazard ratios (HR) Values greater than 1.0 indicate an increased risk.
Analysis of the interval to first hospitalization as a function of eGFR-based CKD stage (Figure
Figure 2
Hospitalizations depending on the eGFR value estimated by different expressed as hazard ratios (HR) Values greater than 1.0 indicate an increased risk.
Hospitalizations depending on the eGFR value estimated by different expressed as hazard ratios (HR) Values greater than 1.0 indicate an increased risk.
With regard to absolute numbers, the CKD-EPIcys, CKD-EPIcreatcyst and BIS2 equations classified most of the participants who died in the subgroup with eGFR <60 mL/min at baseline (Table
The differences in the ability of the different GFR-estimating equations to predict adverse outcomes were further analyzed by measuring the NRI determined using the MDRD equation, using a cutoff value of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. This NRI is reported in Table
Key findings
When using different equations to estimate the GFR, we found large differences (between 40% and 80%) in the prevalence of CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min) and large differences (between 6% and 20%) in the prevalence of severe CKD (eGFR <45 mL/min). Despite these differences in prevalence and regardless of the equation used, participants with an eGFR <30 mL/min were at extremely high risk for mortality, cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization. No relationship between eGFR and non-fatal cardiovascular events was found, except when the GFR was determined using the CKD-EPIcyst equation, which revealed a U-shaped relationship between eGFR and cardiovascular events. The MDRD and CKD-EPIcreat equations not only classified most of the participants with no events in the eGFR >60 mL/min group, but also higher numbers of participants with renal death in the same subgroup. The CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst and BIS equations demonstrated the opposite pattern, identifying fewer renal deaths and classifying fewer numbers of participants with no events in the >60 mL/min subgroup. The NRI values suggest that the CKD-EPI cyst and CKD-EPIcreatcyst equations predict renal death and severe cardiovascular events more accurately than the other equations assessed. The BIS equation less accurately predicts renal deaths.
Other literature
The CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst and BIS equations are new. Consequently, only limited data exist regarding the use of these equations to determine the prevalence of CKD in older individuals. In the BIS validation study (individuals aged 70 years and older)
It is not surprising that differences are observed since some of these equations use serum creatinine, others cystatin C, and some both to calculate the GFR. Creatinine is a breakdown product of creatinine phosphate in muscles. The generation of creatinine depends on the muscle mass, which probably explains racial, ethnic, sex- and age-related variation in the generation of creatinine. Creatinine is a breakdown product of meat, so dietary intake of meat is another source of variation in serum levels of creatinine. Thus, the serum level of creatinine is influenced by more than just the GFR. Cystatin C is a protein produced by all human cells with a nucleus. The generation of cystatin C is thought to be less variable than creatinine in and among individuals, but there is evidence that factors other than the GFR, like smoking, body mass index, inflammation, corticosteroid use, proteinuria, diabetes and race, have an influence on the cystatin C level. Cystatin C is also an better predictor than creatinine of cardiovascular events
One of the main conclusions of our study is that an eGFR <30 mL/min is always related to a large increase in the risk of negative outcomes, such as mortality and hospitalization. This result is independent of the GFR-estimating equation used. It is less clear whether older individuals with an eGFR between 30 and 60 mL/min are all at increased risk for adverse outcomes. Previous studies regarding the risk for negative outcomes in subgroups of older individuals with eGFR values between 45 and 60 mL/min yielded contradictory results. Some studies
Another finding was the U-shaped relationship between the CKD-EPIcyst equation and mortality and cardiovascular events. The finding that people with higher eGFR values calculated based on cystatin C have more events needs to be researched further.
Given the high frequency of CKD in older individuals, it is important for physicians to distinguish between older patients with CKD who are at low risk for negative outcomes and older patients with CKD who are at high risk for negative outcomes. Various risk factors have been proposed for use in such a risk score, including the well-documented combination of eGFR and albuminuria
Strengths and limitations
The main strength of our study is that the data originated from a population-based, prospective cohort study that has been demonstrated to be representative of the Belgian population
Finally, the eGFR cutoff value of 60 mL/min used to define CKD in older persons in this study is often debated since a part of the decline in renal function with aging could be due to physiological changes. However, there are many arguments for a decline in eGFR as a pathological process in most patients
For octogenarians, a much higher prevalence of CKD and severe CKD was found when using the CKD-EPIcyst, CKD-EPIcreatcyst and BIS equations compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPIcreat equations. The CKD-EPI creatinine equation performed similarly to the MDRD equation in predicting adverse outcomes. The new CKD-EPIcreatcyst and CKD-EPIcyst equations appeared to better predict mortality or RRT and severe cardiovascular events. By contrast, the new BIS equation was less accurate at predicting mortality and RRT compared with the MDRD equation.
BIS: The Berlin Initiative Study Equation 2; CI: confidence interval; CKD: chronic kidney disease; CKD-EPIcreat: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation using creatinine; CKD-EPIcreatcys: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine and cystatin C equation; CKD-EPIcyst: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration cystatin C equation; eGFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate; GFR: glomerular filtration rate; GP: general practitioner; HR: hazard ratio; MDRD: The isotope dilution mass spectrometry traceable equation; NRI: net reclassification improvement; OR: odds ratio; RRT: renal replacement therapy.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors' contribution
GVP conducted the statistical analyses, drafted the manuscript, and all of the authors made critical revisions for important intellectual content. All of the authors contributed to the analysis and interpretation of the data. BV, JDG and PW contributed to the study concept and design and obtained funding for the study. JDG supervised the study. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Authors' information
GVP is a Fellow of the Research Foundation Flanders.
The BELFRAIL study [B40320084685] is funded by an unconditional grant from the Fondation Louvain. The Fondation Louvain is the support unit of the Université Catholique de Louvain that is in charge of developing education and research projects for the university by collecting gifts from corporations, foundations, and alumni. This study was possible due to the participating GPs who included their patients. The authors would like to thank Dr Etienne Baijot (Beauraing), Dr Pierre Leclercq (Pondrôme), Dr Baudouin Demblon (Wellin), Dr Daniel Simon (Rochefort), Dr Daniel Vanthuyne (Celles), Dr Yvan Mouton (Godinne), Dr Louis-Philippe Docquier (Maffe), Dr Tanguy Dethier (Ciney), Dr Patricia Eeckeleers (Leignon), Dr Jean-Paul Decaux (Dinant), Dr Christian Fery (Dinant), Dr Pascale Pierret (Heure), Dr Paul-Emile Blondeau (Beauraing), Dr Baudry Gubin (Beauraing), Dr Jacques Guisset (Wellin), Dr Quentin Gillet (Mohiville), Dr Arlette Germay (Houyet), Dr Jan Craenen (Hoeilaart), Dr Luc Meeus (Hoeilaart), Dr Herman Docx (Hoeilaart), Dr Ann Van Damme (Hoeilaart), Dr Sofie Dedeurwaerdere (Hoeilaart), Dr Bert Vaes (Hoeilaart), Dr Stein Bergiers (Hoeilaart), Dr Bernard Deman (Hoeilaart), Dr Edmond Charlier (Overijse), Dr Serge Tollet (Overijse), Dr Eddy Van Keerberghen (Overijse), Dr Etienne Smets (Overijse), Dr Yves Van Exem (Overijse), Dr Lutgart Deridder (Overijse), Dr Jan Degryse (Oudergem), Dr Katrien Van Roy (Oudergem), Dr Veerle Goossens (Tervuren), Dr Herman Willems (Overijse), and Dr Marleen Moriau (Bosvoorde).
Chronic kidney disease and the risks of death, cardiovascular events, and hospitalization
Kidney function and mortality in octogenarians: Cardiovascular Health Study All Stars
The prevalence of chronic kidney disease in a Flemish primary care morbidity register
Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States
Methods to evaluate renal function in elderly patients: a systematic literature review
Estimating glomerular filtration rate from serum creatinine and cystatin C
Two novel equations to estimate kidney function in persons aged 70 years or older
The BELFRAIL (BFC80+) study: a population-based prospective cohort study of the very elderly in Belgium
Impact of creatinine calibration on performance of GFR estimating equations in a pooled individual patient database
Expressing the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) cystatin C equations for estimating GFR with standardized serum cystatin C values
Expressing the modification of diet in renal disease study equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate with standardized serum creatinine values
A new equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate
Quantifying the added value of a diagnostic test or marker
Cystatin C versus creatinine in determining risk based on kidney function
Chronic kidney disease and risk of major cardiovascular disease and non-vascular mortality: prospective population based cohort study
The finding of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate is associated with increased mortality in a large UK population
Age affects outcomes in chronic kidney disease
The evolution of renal function and the incidence of end-stage renal disease in patients aged ≥ 50 years
Age and association of kidney measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease
Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with mortality and end-stage renal disease. A collaborative meta-analysis of kidney disease population cohorts
Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A collaborative meta-analysis of high-risk population cohorts
Lower estimated GFR and higher albuminuria are associated with adverse kidney outcomes. A collaborative meta-analysis of general and high-risk population cohorts
Rate of kidney function decline associates with mortality
Rapid kidney function decline and mortality risk in older adults
The implications of anatomical and functional changes of the aging kidney: with an emphasis on the glomeruli
Pre-publication history
The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:


text:
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Bristow Group Inc. (NYSE:BRS)
2Q09 Earnings Call
November 6, 2008 10:00 am ET
Linda McNeill – Investor Relations Manager
William E. Chiles – President, Chief Executive Officer
Perry L. Elders – Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Mark Duncan - Senior Vice President, Western Hemisphere Division
Ian Zaffino - Oppenheimer and Co.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
David Smith - J.P. Morgan
Dan Goldberg- RBC Royal Bank of Canada
Inaudible Analyst - HIMCO
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bristol Group's second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to your host, Miss Linda McNeill with Bristol Group. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Linda McNeill
Thank you, Chris. Good morning. Welcome to Bristol Group September quarter earnings conference call. My name is Linda McNeill, Investor Relations Manager. With me on the call today are Bill Chiles, President and CEO, Perry Elders, Executive Vice President and CFO, and Mark Duncan, Senior Vice President of our Western Hemisphere Division.
We hope you've seen our new release and 10Q which were filed this morning. Both documents along with our revised growth update which is now included in the investor relations presentation will be posted on the investor relations section of our website www.bristowgroup.com. Please note that no earnings guidance will be provided during this call.
Let me remind everyone that during the call, Bristow Group management may make comments that reflect on intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions of the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Additional information concerning these risk factors is contained in our Form 10-Q filed with the SEC for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 and the Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008.
Additionally to the extent that we discuss non-GAAP measures during this call, please see our investor relations presentation on our website for the calculation of these measures and GAAP reconciliation.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Bill.
William E. Chiles
Thank you, Linda and welcome to all of you on the call today. I want to start off talking about our safety performance. We're making great progress with our target zero initiative. We had two relatively minor flight accidents in our training operations that did not result in any serious injuries to anyone involved. We're making progress there. We have had no flight accidents in our normal operations. Our ground safety, our total recordable incident rate is 0.4 for 200,000 man-hours and our loss work case rate is 0.25 for 200,000 man-hours which is pretty much in line with our plan, again moving towards zero.
Obviously, I don't need to remind anyone on this call about the global financial crisis. It's unprecedented as we all agree. However, we have experienced no negative impact to date, no indications from our customers in a change in their activity, although we certainly are not immune and do expect some reduction in activity by our customers. We just don't know where that might occur. It will likely occur first on the exploration and development side rather than the production side. Fortunately, so much of our flying is production-related and driven more by major production projects around the world conducted by the national oil companies and the international oil companies.
We are monitoring our customers very closely to make sure we understand their plans for the future. We're working with our consultants to tap into their knowledge base to make sure we see and are aware of any red flags that pop up.
Our financial condition is very solid. We have the capital on the balance sheet now to execute our growth plan and we're being very, very disciplined about that and Perry will go into more detail in just a minute about our current financial situation.
Results for the September quarter, revenue of $291.7 million, income from continuing operations of $28 million, ROCE of around 14% which is consistent with the June quarter and in line with the indications that we gave you during the quarter, diluted earnings per share of $0.78, and Perry will cover that in more detail in just a minute.
I would like to introduce Mark Duncan who is also going to participate on the call. Mark Duncan is our Senior Vice President of the Western Hemisphere Division which includes the U.S., Gulf of Mexico, Arctic, Latin America, and the Western Hemisphere centralized operations. Mark will discuss the significant events that are happening or had happened in his division. Mark?
Mark Duncan
Thanks, Bill.
Just to update you on some significant events and I will start with the Gulf of Mexico. We have suffered from both Hurricanes Gustav and Ike during the period, Gustav affecting Louisiana only and Ike affecting both Texas and Louisiana. At this time, we have been back in operations, serving all customers. We did incur some damage to some of our facilities and bases, the worst of which was Galveston in Texas which basically was destroyed and needs completely reconstructed.
We've taken action from that and relocated our operations to nearby Brazoria County Airport which is a base we've operated from previously.
In Louisiana, Creole is our base most affected. We basically are using it only as a fuel stop at this time as reconstruction goes on. In the meantime, the aircraft that we were operating at Creole, we are now operating from our new IAB facility on Intracoastal City.
Intracoastal City itself is back up and operational. That is our second biggest base in the Gulf of Mexico. There are some minor repairs required but basically we're back in operation there. Our biggest base in Louisiana, Galliano, was not affected by the hurricanes and has operated throughout.
When we are operating from these alternate locations, some of that involves additional flight time and we are being paid for those additional hours by our customers. There are however, some other incremental costs that we are incurring from these alternate locations and that are affecting us slightly. They are things like accommodating our pilots and staff in hotels that were previously provided by the company.
In the September quarter, a combination of the decrease of flight activity from the hurricanes and the increased costs resulted in $2.1 million in operating income. There is a potential future gain once we make some claims of $1.5 million that would offset that.
Summing up the hurricane situation, we obviously have hurricane evacuation plans that were put into place and work very well. People did a fantastic job in these very difficult circumstances.
Moving on in North America, the pilot union that we have that covers our operations both in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, we started renegotiating the contract and I've actually concluded those negotiations. We have a new two and a half year contract in place. This basically secures our largest single cost which is our pilot labor so we now will control over a prolonged period. The contract has been restructured and it's approved our operating flexibility which will help offset the compensation increases that were part of the contract itself. As I also mentioned, the agreement covered our pilot workforce in Alaska on a similar basis.
Moving on, the significant event we mentioned before on the aircraft sale has now been closed. The 53 single-engine aircraft and related assets that were operating in the production management business have been sold for $65 million. Twenty percent of this was received at closing. The remainder will be paid in escrow as the titles of the aircraft are processed by the U.S. FAA and transferred to the new owner. Today, we have 15 aircraft that have already transferred and we expect by the close of business today that that will be 20 aircraft already transferred to the new owner.
The results of this transaction are a pre-tax gain of approximately $40 million or $0.72 per diluted share and these would be recognized in the December quarter. This transaction was very complex and a lot of hard work was done by our management team in our Gulf of Mexico business units supported from our corporate office in Houston as well. This transaction also closed through the extremely difficult financial crisis which we can move on from here. As we previously mentioned, this divestment was part of a strategy shift to move to the deep-water market with larger aircraft. We already have 2 S-92 aircraft in our Gulf of Mexico operation. One has been working successfully since August. The second will begin work in early December for another customer. We then take two more S-92s in the fourth quarter in our financial year, '09, and will have several opportunities to indemnify for these helicopters.
In addition on new work, we recently agreed on a five-year extension with one of our largest Gulf of Mexico customers which are significant new business for us. In addition to this, we have been successfully negotiating extensions and price increases with several customers and again, these will take effect during the next quarter.
If I move geographically to South America, I'll talk about Brazil. We consider Brazil as one of the largest single opportunities in our world-like market. In context, we considered it with growth potential like the North Sea was in the early '70s. It's a really big plague.
We feel quite confident that activity is going to go ahead in Brazil, funding is going to be supported by the government through various banks there. On activity in Brazil, we have three major S-76 C++ aircraft tri-leased on multi-year contracts with a Brazilian contractor. These are operating with two IOC customers. We have secured three additional awards for three 76s which will bring the total to 6 aircraft. The three additional will go into contract in 2009, one in February and two towards the end of '09. With that in Brazil, by the end of '09, we will have the same number of aircraft in Brazil as we had a couple of years ago when we decided to exit our previous joint venture relationship.
Finishing off, just looking at some other markets in the hemisphere. We continue to see opportunity for long-term growth in the Arctic and we are poised ready for that to happen. In Mexico, our joint venture with Heliservicio was recently awarded two contracts by PanEx for 10 medium aircraft and these are 5-year contracts. We are very pleased with the position of Heliservicio in that market now.
With that, I will turn the call back over to Bill.
William E. Chiles
Thank you, Mark. I am going to concentrate on the Eastern Hemisphere starting with Europe. In the North Sea, likewise, we have a major extension with one of our largest customers in the North Sea for multiple years. We've also reached an agreement on our pilots and engineers on a three-year contract there as well, so we are also in the mode of controlling our costs and at least knowing what our costs will be.
The strengthening U.S. dollar has negatively affected our British pound operating results for contracts that are denominated in British pound. However, there were other improvements that more than offset the FX effect, so the margins have been very, very strong in the North Sea.
We previously mentioned that we withdrew from the search and rescue contract bid with our partners FBH, FB Wholeservices Circo and Augusta Westland, basically, because of reduced commercial upside, the fact that the government has chosen to commoditize the project. There is very high commercial risk with very little return and delays in the award with the process. So we decided to just withdraw. It was a lot of work and very little upside for a tremendous risk. We do remain committed to other search and rescue work in other parts of the world or wherever our customer wants search and rescue work to support oil and gas business.
We mentioned the North transaction earlier when we acquired the remaining 51% interest in Norsk Helikopters in Norway from our former partner. We believe this is a big success and will help grow our European business unit and it will also simplify our operations there. We will completely consolidate not only the results but the operations in Norway into our European business unit so there will be some synergies there that we have yet to identify but we will experience some synergies in those operations.
Turning to West Africa and Nigeria, recently there was a very large contract extension with a major customer in Escrobos. Escrobos is where we fly light helicopters in support of Chevron's production operations. In addition, we've also recently had a multi-year award for the operation of two large S-92 helicopters and two medium S-76s. One of the S-92s will be in SAR configuration and this is in support of a major production operation in Nigeria. The union contract there is currently in negotiation and hopefully in the final stages.
Southeast Asia, particularly Australia, the disappointing margins were caused by a number of factors, primarily from delays in project start-up, unscheduled aircraft line maintenance, unreimbursed aircraft movements across the country, but also compensation increases from the union negotiations that we completed and payroll catch-up. Some of these costs are not expected to recur and those that are, we are in a process of controlling those costs and in discussions with our customers to increase our pricing to offset those costs.
The new work coming on in the next six months and year is at much better margins and it will further mitigate the effect of the cost increases. We are taking very active steps to make sure that we get Australia back on-track here.
Looking forward, we are in a strong position to withstand the current financial crisis. We have a large cash component on our balance sheet that Perry is going to go into. We can continue to execute our growth plan but we are going to be very disciplined about that and cautious. We're very excited about some of the market developments around the world like Brazil. With that, I will turn it over to Perry.
Perry L. Elders
Thanks, Bill.
I just wanted to review the consolidated results for the quarter compared to the September 2007 quarter. The most significant items affecting the operating results were the negative affect of the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that Mark mentioned as well as the high maintenance costs which continue in the Eastern Hemisphere Centralized Operations. The storms, Mark mentioned, affected around $2 million of operating income or $0.04 per diluted share. As he mentioned, we have an upside in future payment to a $1.5 million agreement.
In terms of Eastern Hemisphere Centralized Operations, we had higher maintenance costs of about $2.7 million or $0.05 per share in this quarter which was primarily driven by the Euro-based power-by-the-hour maintenance contracts and the exchange rate movements in the Euro of 2008 compared to 2007, and also, the additional heavy maintenance which was similar to the circumstances in June although to a much lesser extent. We had anticipated this and as we had discussed with investors in the June quarter call, this was expected to continue. We expected to be able to mitigate it and indeed it has continued but we have been able to mitigate it to some extent. Going forward, we have had CapEx exposure from further deterioration although the existing EfEx deterioration is expected to continue to hit us for the remainder of this fiscal year.
We're also taking steps to better manage the cost of the heavy maintenance and expect to see improvements in that area. As Bill mentioned, the core operating results in Australia cost us $0.12 a share this quarter but were substantially offset by higher revenue in Europe related to contractual rate adjustments and retroactive rate adjustments, applicable services performed in prior quarters that added $0.09. So if you take those four operating items together in the September quarter, they had a negative net effect of $0.12 per share. If you recall in the prior year quarter, the September '07 quarter, we had $0.24 of out-of-period positive items. If you exclude the negative items from this year's quarter and the positive items from last year's quarter, diluted EPS has actually increased $0.02 per share.
In addition, non-operating items, there were two significant changes and both of these are going to have a continuing effect going forward. We had a lower effective tax rate in this period. It was 26% compared to 35% last year, principally due to the lower UK statutory rate that is down to 28% now as well as the tax reorganization that we completed effective April 1 of '08. So we expect the full year rate for fiscal 2009 to be around 29% and you will note that is about what our rate is for the six months ended September 30, 2008. That represents a substantial reduction from historical periods and a real improvement in the bottom line from a cash perspective. That provided, as I mentioned, a $0.10 per share benefit to the quarter that was offset by a $0.13 per share hit for the capital that we raised in June that you all were previously aware of. So those non-operating items kind of had a substantially offsetting effect during the quarter.
In terms of cash flow, we had an excellent quarter. EBITDA was almost $119 million. Cash flow from operations was $55 million compared to $43 million in the prior year and these are six month numbers that I am referring to here today. Likewise, CapEx, capital expenditures was $279 million versus $221 million which is inline with our capital expenditure program.
On the financing side, in light of Bill's comments in regards to the global economic crisis, you know that over the past three years, we've raised $1.1 billion in capital. In light of the current financial market situation, we're now benefitting from our conservative financial policies which include relatively low leverage and pre-financing CapEx via cash on-hand, available revolver capacity and a conservative estimate of cash flows. At September 30, we had leverage of approximately 43% of capital or 3.67:1 debt to EBITDA and both of those on our adjusted debt faces including the balance sheet debt, our off-balance sheet GE leases and our UK under-funded pension obligations.
So at September 30, our cash on-hand actually exceeded the remaining aircraft commitments at that point. We have $600 million in aircraft on order of which there was about $380 million left to be paid but $600 million in aircraft on order that we expect to come into the business and deliver growth. In addition to that, we have undrawn revolving credit facilities and a conservative estimate of future cash flow that provides uncommitted liquidity of approximately $425 million.
We remain disciplined in our capital program and have recently reassessed our investment opportunities. We do expect to spend this additional $425 million of uncommitted liquidity to grow our business by purchasing aircraft and taking advantage of strategic opportunities which may present themselves particularly as others struggle to obtain capital.
We've also proactively been managing the potential implications of the financial crisis for Bristow and that has included protecting the company's liquidity by investing our cash in secure investments, monitoring the ability of our counter-parties to fill their obligations whether that is our lenders in the credit facility, EfEx hedge counter-parties or others. We're also evaluating the funding requirements of our retirement plans and as Bill mentioned, staying close to our customers in terms of receivables collected.
With that, I'll turn to the business units and just very briefly run through the business units and talk about what we see going forward for the next couple of quarters in terms of business units' margins. Longer-term, we expect the margins to improve over what I'm about to mention but for the next few quarters, what we're seeing in the Gulf of Mexico for example is the mid-teens, however, there could be some modest dilution from that as we provide services to the purchaser of the 53 aircraft at somewhat of a cost. So around the mid-teens, this is consistent with our previous guidance.
Alaska, as expected, Alaska had a great quarter in September but also expecting for the December and March quarters a significant falloff as we've seen in the past. Latin America will continue to expect kind of the low to mid-twenties and the Western Hemisphere Centralized Operations, you will note that we had a profit this quarter which was due to reduced maintenance during the storms so we expect to have actual net costs in the Western Hemisphere Centralized Ops for the next few quarters.
Moving to Europe, our expectations of margins in our legacy UK and Dutch business continues to be around 20%, however with the consolidation of Norsk, we expect total Europe margins to reduce a few percentage points. In Nigeria or West Africa, we continue to expect margins to be in the high teens to around 20%. For Southeast Asia, as Bill mentioned, we do expect recovery, partial recovery in the December quarter and a full recovery in the March quarter. The other implication for us in Southeast Asia is a strengthening of the dollar, as Bill mentioned in Europe, we are having a similar effect on the Australian dollar and that has a negative effect on the quarter. As that dollar strengthens, expect it to continue for the next couple of quarters.
In our other international business unit, we expect it to continue to be our smallest business unit and the one in which we essentially make frontier-type investments and growth, so our operating results in this business unit are expected to be exceedingly relatively nominal and somewhat unpredictable.
In the Eastern Hemisphere Centralized Operations, we already discussed that, but we do expect to continue to see losses from the EfEx as well as heavy maintenance for the next several quarters. Bristow Academy, we expect to see better results in the December and March quarters as the military training plans in the first half of the year has been shifted to the latter half of the year.
With that, we're now ready to take questions so if I can ask you to ask one question and a follow-up question, we would appreciate it. Operator, we will turn it over to you.
Question-and-Answer Session
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer and Co. Please go ahead, sir.
Ian Zaffino - Oppenheimer and Co.
I need reconcile from something Bill you said and Perry. Bill, you mentioned, I forget the exact words, but you're going to judiciously expand or consider expansion opportunities and Perry mentioned that everything as far as expansion and the new aircraft that you want to bring on is fully funded and going forward. Was there something else that you were referring to, am I just not getting that right or if you could help me reconcile that would be helpful?
William E. Chiles
We currently have on order, as Perry mentioned, around $600 million of aircraft on order which we have about $390 million left to pay. We expect to continue to deploy those aircraft over the next few years. Those projects that are identified connect directly to those aircraft. We expect to continue to go on and we have alternate uses for those aircraft if the specific projects don't go forward. With respect to the additional capital that we have coming on over the next few years, we're going to be very careful and judicious. We expect to continue to grow. We have opportunities identified around the world that far exceed our ability to deliver aircraft to those projects with the current order book so we're going to watch it very closely. Obviously, if those opportunities fall away because of the current situation, we would not exercise options or continue to fund additional orders. Does that answer your question, Ian?
Ian Zaffino - Oppenheimer and Co.
Yeah, that's helpful. The other question would be, in your discussions with customers, whether they exist or new projects or they're just new opportunities, does the price of oil as far as their marginal costs of production, do those conversations ever come up? If so, can you kind of give us a broad stroke on what your exposure is kind of each price point or each kind of bucket of oil prices or gas prices and how they might move so we can think about it?
William E. Chiles
What we've previously said to all of you is that we were comfortable that our business has stayed very robust with oil above $100 a barrel. When you start going below $80 a barrel, in between $80 and $100 a barrel, things are going to move on. There will be a few projects that will fall off but the number that we have talked to you about, we have identified around the world is about $2 billion worth of projects that require capital or projects that require about $2 billion in capital. If you compare that to what we're actually executing, a little less than $1 billion, there are quite a few projects. The question you're asking is what will happen below $80 a barrel, will the opportunities drop by half is very hard to tell. Obviously, the very high cost projects in the Arctic will likely not be executed, however, in places like Brazil, West Africa, Southeast Asia and relatively benign environments with friendly countries, the threshold is probably closer to $50 a barrel or so. These projects will continue to go forward. If you talk to our customers, a lot of them are using the even lower threshold numbers than that to determine negating items to determine whether they execute or not. We're fairly confident that we've got enough market demand out there even with oil hovering around $60 a barrel to keep our business very, very strong.
Obviously, the flying we do on the margin for drilling rigs in the exploration/development area will likely fall off first. We haven't had enough time and feedback from our customers to really make a strong assessment. You know we work with PSC Energy and they're doing the same for us as well.
Our next question is with Arun Jayarum with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
I wanted to see if you could elaborate on the impact from the pilot labor agreements in the Gulf of Mexico and in the North Sea or internationally on here on your cost structure.
Mark Duncan
It's Mark Duncan here. We have concluded our agreements and the vote has taken place with union membership. It passed with a large majority. We have in place a two and a half year contract which has annual escalations. The average of those escalations in terms of base salary increases is 6%.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
Per annum?
Mark Duncan
Six percent per year.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
How about outside of the Gulf of Mexico?
William E. Chiles
It's roughly the same. The impact is baked into our numbers so that when we look at our plan, we already got those numbers in there. So we don't see any impact to our plan. You would ask what about relative to actual results, we believe we've got escalation clauses, contract escalation clauses and normal price increases that we've already executed and will execute that which will more than offset those costs.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
Bill, in terms of the overall business model, looking back at Bristow historically, it never really generated much free cash flow as you have been in growth mode. I was wondering given the global financial situation, how do you adjust the business model and when do we see you guys start to generate some free cash flow or are you going to continue to be outspending your EBITDA as you continue to add aircraft?
William E. Chiles
The way we look at it, if we can execute and deliver the internal capital employed that we expect and you expect, that gives us a good margin over our cost of capital and we will continue to do so. If pricing for some reason falls and we're not able to get a good spread over our cost to capital with good secure contracts, we'll slow down the growth or stop the growth. We're not going to be adding capacity that is not extremely secure and gives us that good spread. It's hard to say when that would happen, if it would happen. We expect it to continue right now but I'll tell you we're not freely spending money without any regard for the current situation. We're looking a lot harder at our contract terms and making sure that before we commit new capital that we have a solid commitment from a customer in-hand.
Arun Jayarum - Credit Suisse
Just a real quick follow-up, in terms of the options that you have over the next 12 months, Perry can you give an update on what that number is and I guess the decision process on whether to exercise those options or not?
Perry L. Elders
Yes, Arun. We do not have any options expiring in the December quarter. We have a few that expire in the March quarter. We currently have a number that expire in the June '09 quarter. However, we are watching the effect of the economic crisis on our OEMs and we have in the past been able to negotiate deferral of option exercises when we come to them and we're not prepared to exercise them. So currently contract expiration dates, there are a few of them in the March quarter and others in the June quarter and others beyond that but our expectation is that with our purchasing power with the OEMs as well as potentially some softening in the market with the financial crisis that we're not going to lose those slots if we chose not to exercise all of them as they come up.
Our next question is with David Smith, J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
David Smith - J.P. Morgan
Question for you Bill or maybe for Mark as well. Thinking back to past cycles that rolled over quickly and maybe the late '90s is the right example, how did pricing and margins change for the medium and large helicopters, maybe from peak to trough?
William E. Chiles
We have seen historically since none of us were here then that when we plotted those numbers from the past, we didn't see, and we've actually shown this in some of our investor presentations, we plot our pricing versus pricing on a gross basis, for example in the Gulf of Mexico versus rigs and boats, you see the fact that we don't see dips in our pricing. What happens though is that the flat irons start falling on the margin where we are flat, we fly to drilling rigs, so the actual margin numbers, I don't know Perry, you might want to answer that. Going back that far, I don't know what the margins look like.
Perry L. Elders
We do see some margin compression during down-cycles but it is because of the pricing pressure as Bill mentioned. What we don't see is a dramatic fall-off and if anything, what it typically calls us to do is just to hold pricing firm and not have pricing decreases. As you know over the last few years, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, we have been raising price not dramatically but 8%-10% a year in a down market in the past. Instead of raising the price, we held prices flat. That's the kind of effect that we would expect.
David Smith - J.P. Morgan
Can you remind us what the average contract duration is outside of the U.S. and also if you provide some color on the security of those contracts? Are they take or pay, do they have cancelation clauses? How do we think about that?
Perry L. Elders
Outside of the Gulf of Mexico, on average, three to five years. Nigeria, two to three years. We do have some contracts that are longer than five years. As you know, in the Gulf of Mexico, they are shorter-term than that, typically. The contracts do have cancelation provisions. It ranges depending on the market from 90 to 180 days generally. However, that generally is not, we've certainly not seen that in the last four years and don't anticipate that going forward. They're not literally take or pay contracts as you might traditionally think of take or pay contracts, but they do have capital protection in the form of monthly retainers so that even when the customers don't fly, we've seen this circumstance in a couple of instances in the past in Nigeria due to violence, where we have not had the variable rate for the flying hours. We've continued to receive the monthly retainer and so it's not take or pay, but we do have that guaranteed margin built into the capital part of those contracts.
Our next question is with Dan Goldberg, RBC Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.
Dan Goldberg- RBC Royal Bank of Canada
Just following along on the capital question and your future investments. I would imagine given the current environment, given that the cost of capital has gone up tremendously, you are boosting the necessary return of capital required from your new investments. Would that be the case?
Perry L. Elders
Yes, Dan, we're taking a close look at that and we're not dogmatic about this. We don't set fixed, rigid, we look at every individual circumstance. They are each individually unique. We're confident in achieving our long-term goal of a positive 20% return on capital but each individual contract differs. If the long-term contract is in a very stable market from a major international customer, we might have a different view than a shorter term contract in a more high risk market. We're not dogmatic about it but we certainly are taking a harder look at those margins. As Bill said, we're effectively high-grading the opportunities to put this capital to work.
Dan Goldberg- RBC Royal Bank of Canada
At this point, you are not specifically saying you require more than the 20% return on capital that you were looking at six or nine months ago?
Perry L. Elders
What we said before is that the 20% is a composite average. There are some markets that are slightly below that and some markets where we are substantially ahead of that. That continues to be the case. I might also note that the 20% is an expected long-term goal and we expect to achieve our financial goals of doubling the size of the company by fiscal '11, by the end of March 2011. The 20% return on capital will likely be achieved in several years following that, probably not by March 2011, but we still expect to achieve that in the longer term.
Our next question is from [Adrell Askew] with HIMCO. Please go ahead.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
Can you talk about your terms on the Gulf of Mexico contracts? You said those were shorter terms. Can you provide a little bit of detail there?
Mark Duncan
In the Gulf of Mexico, we have a market there which most of it is annual contracts that are evergreen. So every year they get renewed for another year. For example, we have some contracts there, one-year contracts that have been in place since 1993. We stay very close to the customers to make sure we know their plans and the significant item I mentioned when I made my discussion points earlier was we are seeing some customers moving to five-year contract terms significantly to secure the provision of helicopters that they need for their future operations. That trend is something that we're seeing with several other customers as well.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
What percentage of that would you say is what you are currently seeing?
Mark Duncan
As an example, the S-92 that we have flying since August is on a 3-4 year contract which is an indicator of that change.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
Represented of the total business in the Gulf of Mexico is one aircraft, right?
William E. Chiles
Maybe I can help with this. Prior to the sale of these 53 aircraft, about half of our revenues in the Gulf were shallow-water and half-deep, roughly speaking. With the sale of these 53 aircraft, we'll still have the significant presence in the shallow water. We're not leaving the shallow water but it does reduce our small aircraft fleet in half in the Gulf of Mexico in the shallow water. The shallow water is typically where the shorter-term contracts are. The further offshore like the ones that Mark referred to on the S-92s, those are the longer term contracts. We don't publish contract lengths but maybe that will help you frame it.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
So with half-shallow, half-deep, what would you say that breaks out now? Is it all deep water?
Mark Duncan
It's not all deep water. Certainly more than half of it is deep water, for sure.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
Let me ask another question. Talk about your business mix as it relates to the exploration versus production projects. Can you give me a total percentage of costs for the entire business or within certain regions? Can you give me an indication there?
Perry L. Elders
We don't have that quantified and we don't report that. The reason why is when we fly for customers, they have the aircraft reserved and they will have us fly to both. In some flights, we actually fly to multiple facilities offshore, some production, some exploration so there is not a specific quantification of it. We believe the majority of our flying is for production base because there are 9,000 production facilities in the world and only around 700 rigs. So the exploration flying is important to us but it's certainly a smaller part of our business. We don't report specific numbers on it.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
I mean from a risk mitigation standpoint, as a management team, how do you guys think about your exposure to exploration projects? How do you size that up? When you sit down and think about it, how much business can go away at $40 oil, how do you size that up?
Perry L. Elders
Like I said, the vast majority is unaffected by commodity prices unless it gets below the $50 that Bill mentioned. Also, maybe as importantly to kind of connect some of the questions here together, the growth plans in terms of the CapEx that we're doing, the opportunities that we see that Bill mentioned that are roughly double what capital we currently have available to us are principally production-based projects. They're projects that we believe will go forward based on the commodity price expectations that we're seeing from everybody. So we're not seeing commodity price expectations from our customers as yet that we believe would cause any substantial declines in either our existing business or the new business that we see coming on.
William E. Chiles
Let me see if I can expand and tie those questions together and the question that Dan had. We are being very disciplined about the capital. We are very aware of what's happened to the equity returns and with multiple compressions the expected equity returns are higher. We're very sensitive to that and that's why Perry said earlier, we're high-rating the projects that come up, so we're effectively addressing the higher cost of capital. We're also being very disciplined about the projects that we're focusing on in the future to make sure they're more insulated from commodity price fluctuations. For example, Mark mentioned Brazil. We believe that the projects in Brazil even including the subsalt projects or what they call presalt, will continue to go forward and we believe, and we've looked into this in detail, the financing is there to support those projects.
To get to your specific question about production flying periods, for example, a S-92 or S-76 that flies for Chevron will on its daily routine will stop on several drilling rigs, come back to shore, go to several production platforms, come back to shore. It's a little bit difficult right now to properly assess exactly how much of our business in a given market would be susceptible to a falloff in drilling activity and we're going to continue to work on that.
In the frontier areas that Perry mentioned were under other international areas will probably be affected to some extent because a lot of those projects are pure exploration and may be withdrawn, but we have very little exposure in the other international business unit.
Inaudible Analyst – HIMCO
When you say frontier area, can you tell me specifically what those are and that will be my last question?
William E. Chiles
I will give you an example, Mauritania-Libya.
Perry L. Elders
William E. Chiles
Madagascar. Places like that.
At this time, we show no further questions.
William E. Chiles
If we show no further questions, thank you very much. We understand people are focused on a lot of negative press out there. There is stuff going on but we are going to continue to be optimistic with regard to our growth plans and believe me, we are going to be very, very careful and very, very disciplined about it. We're happy to enjoy the financial strength that we have today. Again, thank you and we will continue to talk to all of you during the next few months. Thank you very much.
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