text:
Labor's odds aren't so bad as the bookies suggest
While betting odds show the Coalition remains on track for a long-expected election victory, they also reveal Labor is within striking distance, writes Stephen Senise.
It's been getting interesting down in the betting ring ever since emergency runner Kevin Rudd earned a late berth for the big race, replacing late-scratching Julia Gillard.
With competitors about to jump, the bookies will tell you Labor is no hope, going out at the fat price of $4, the Coalition odds-on at $1.24. However, a seat-by-seat look at where the satchel-swingers expect the seats to stand and fall would belie such an expected tearaway win by Tony Abbott.
Rudd looks to have injected confidence in those punters expecting a good Labor result north of the river Tweed - a case of horses for courses. Indeed, the bookies tell the tale of a remarkable turnaround in Labor fortunes since Rudd's maroon coloured silks were sighted in the mounting yard.
Set to lose all but one or two Queensland seats six weeks ago, Labor now seems set to pick up the electorates of Brisbane and Forde from the Coalition, with the former tracking at $1.75 favouritism and the latter at $1.20. A third, Longman, is also in play, with both parties even at $1.85.
With Peter Slipper's seat of Fisher, the Coalition can expect to mitigate some small part of their losses in the sunshine state by reclaiming the electorate from the column of the independents.
With no significant betting moves in either direction in South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory or the ACT, the eastern seaboard can rightly claim to be the fast lane for seats expected to change hands. While patchy, the going would seem less than favourable for the incumbent PM in each of Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales.
In the garden state, Labor seem unlikely to hold out Liberal Party challengers in Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin, but are short odds to regain the seat of Melbourne from the Greens.
In Tasmania, Independent Andrew Wilkie is expected to secure his grasp on the formerly Labor seat of Denison. The bagmen predict little comfort for Rudd in other parts of the apple isle either. The fairly safe Labor seats of Braddon and Bass are under serious pressure, with the Liberal Party candidates pushing the incumbents' odds out the door.
In New South Wales, the tide of money has been steadily against Labor in the marginal western Sydney electorates of Lindsay and Greenway. Another, Robertson, is set for a photo finish according to the latest fluctuations, while candidates from either Liberal or National Party stables seem set to replace independents in Dobell, Lyne, and New England. It is an expected gain for Tony Abbott on home turf of at least five seats.
So Australia-wide, the race preview translates into a plausible scenario where Labor is down a net three seats, while the Coalition adds a net eight to its ledger. Expected wins by independents Katter and Wilkie aside, in a 150-seat parliament the mail from the betting ring suggests Labor will win 68 to the Coalition's 80 - a buffer between competitors that is barely modest. Six seats going the other way, in Labor's favour, would have them level pegging.
Emergency runner Rudd would seem to have made a contest of it, if only against the backdrop of what might have been had he not managed to bullock his way to the starting gates.
Former prime minister Paul Keating once said that the best place to be in the run home is "one out and one back". Kevin Rudd might not be so perfectly placed, but with a slogging run down the straight due to stretch out a while yet, he is certainly "close enough if good enough", as the old saying goes.
Punters will tell you something more besides: the winning post won't be looming into view a second too soon.
These betting odds were correct at the time of publication.
When freelance journalist Stephen Senise isn't chasing the ponies he is a keen amateur psephologist. View his full profile here.
Commenters on Drum articles might have noticed that over the past several weeks we have had numerous "service unavailable" errors. We are working with our technology department to resolve this and apologise for the inconvenience.
Topics: federal-elections
Comments (167)
Comments for this story are closed.
08 Aug 2013 4:23:08pm
I wonder what odds Rudd would slip too if your ABC and other mainstream media showed footage of Rudd squeezing a 5 year olds fingers and actually hurting the boy??
08 Aug 2013 5:26:26pm
You know as well as anyone that the ABC would only try and exploit that if it were Abbott. That's the way they roll at the ABC. Funny Paul Barry whinging about the Daily Telegraph yet ignoring the bias of the ABC.
But on that footage, we know what type of man Rudd is and he would only do that to a child. He would never be man enough to do it to somebody his own size. Like swearing at his staff, abusing a flight attendant, a coward will always try and intimidate someone smaller.
And that folks is the man the left want as PM.
Lev Lafayette:
08 Aug 2013 6:30:38pm
You know, the only peer-reviewed study on media bias in the ABC in recent years indicated a slight bias *to* the Coalition.
I am sure however that you were already aware of this.
08 Aug 2013 7:40:28pm
Any one can have an opinion does it really matter when biased peer reviews review reviews.
But this story is about odd socks - see Labor is at odds as to what socks they should wear to the next formal.
Kev wants red and white because he wants a bet each way - because the red shows his red badge of courage (when he is berating airline hostesses about his lunch) and the white is represents the closest thing to a white flag when he beats his chest in a mea culpa rage.
The rest of the team are at odds because they can't wear sock. Kev does not allow beach bums to wear socks.
So labor is really at odds. They are the odds and sods of the Australian workforce. They were never trained for the job - they came in on party boats and rumour has it on 457 visas.
So they are at odds with immigration for allowing party members like this in.
Kev may protest all he likes but his socks are the best odds he is getting - just don't be around when he takes them off he has been wearing since election in 07 - reckons they are lucky.
Really odd how some people think?
Mark James:
08 Aug 2013 8:54:44pm
"Really odd how some people think?"
Yes, you've demonstrated that point perfectly, patarus.
paulette gittins:
09 Aug 2013 1:22:48pm
you're telling me, mate. Your analogy about socks is incomprehensible;I also didn't know people - anywhere - wore one "sock." Do you understand what "at odds" actually means?
Why not give us your views in coherent English? And, like the PM or not, the last time i read a newspaper, even the Murdoch press, it was profoundly clear that Mr. Rudd's team are NOT "at odds" with him.
And if you think he'll be a bad PM, consider the alternative of ministers who are ON RECORD as saying that their "religious beliefs inform their political decisions!" Goodbye to secular democracy!
08 Aug 2013 9:26:32pm
I suspected so, there has been an influx of ex coalition ministers.
08 Aug 2013 7:15:26pm
Doesd anyone with any intelligence believe anything written in a fiction comic strip like the Daily Telegraph? It is like believing a Murdoch Newspoll.
08 Aug 2013 8:20:59pm
No they lost credibility when they went for Kevin 07.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:18:07am
They lose credibility whenever they reveal themselves to have an opinion. Whatever happened to reporting news objectively?
Blue Flame:
08 Aug 2013 7:55:50pm
Any 'perceived' bias at the ABC, and the ludicrous front pages of the Tele, are light years apart.
09 Aug 2013 1:01:46am
Only one of those is taxpayer funded, with a charter that says they are to be unbiased...
King cola:
09 Aug 2013 8:29:28am
I suggest the odds are rigged. For purposes of the NBN. A former Murdoch lieutenant tells us how we can look forward to the odds being even further stretched:
juliet jones:
09 Aug 2013 9:46:29am
Which they are. Read Annabe'ls latest offering. Read regularly Chris Berg, Peter, Reith, Julie Novac, Kevin Donnelly et al. Read Peter Hartcher in the smh-these people attack anyone when they see the need and Labor has never been exempt. See Leigh Sales go after Kevin Rudd recently with even more vigor than she used on Tony Abbott. But no, you never comment on that, seemingly blinded by your Liberal Party leanings. By the way, Kev acquitted himself well. Isn't that a bummer?
09 Aug 2013 4:12:06pm
Juliett, opinion is just that. The Australian publishes opinion from Labor people, but we don't necessarily think they are unbiased. The ABC's bias is in it's news. News Ltd is a nominally right wing organization, so we would expect some bias, although they did support Rudd in 07. If you want your papers left wing, read the Guardian, or Socialist worker, if it still goes. Then you will get left wing bias in a paper. We all know few people read those papers,but that is their choice. The ABC's perceived bias is in it's reporting, by not running with stories that might have hurt Labor, and running hard on issues that are detrimental to the coalition. So we got blanket coverage of Abott supposedly punching a wall, but almost ignored stories about say, disunity in Labor, on the theory that that was only a media beat up anyway, and there was no chance of a Rudd resurgence. Funny how that went.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:19:43am
Unbiased doesn't mean saying only what you think is right. If you're left-leaning you can also spot right-bias at the ABC. I suppose that means that they're doing OK. Of course, I would say that, wouldn't I?
09 Aug 2013 12:40:02pm
Michael: You apparently disregard the Liberal nominated inquiry into the ABC, then stacked with Howard appointees, because it does not suit you.
Instead of repeating an allegation mindlessly, will you give some examples of undue ABC Bias. Then if you have still convinced yourself that your claims are justified, perhaps some inkling why this is so.
I would have thought you would have had enough of Alan Jones, Piers Ackerman, Janet Albrecfsen, Paul Murray and the like without having them on the ABC, as well as Peter Reith, and other journaljsts slightly right of centre.
don't believe the media:
09 Aug 2013 4:25:32pm
Not only did Howard stack the ABC board he also proposed merging it with SBS as SBS had gone commercial and could then be manipulated by the advertisers. Abbott is on record as having mentioned his intent to disband the ABC at a right wing think tank (excuse the hilarity of the term).
The ABC can, of course appear to be left wing when almost all other news sources are commercial and naturally inclined to be biased towards corporations. The Murdoch press and the shock jocks of 2gb and the like , of course are shameless in their opinion duisgised as facts.
09 Aug 2013 1:28:07am
If there is any bias in the ABC towards the ALP exists to balance the blatant bias towards the LNP in the rest of the media..
l suspect the bias is more towards the Coalition than the ALP.. This is because the ABC has been attacked for so long by the Coalition it has been beaten into submission.
09 Aug 2013 7:59:30am
So I assume Abbotts aggressive and threatening behaviour to women make him what? A "real" man? See how easy that is to do?
Both sides enjoy a bit of mud slinging. I dont see why we have to indulge them by repeating these tawdry stories.
B is for Beer:
09 Aug 2013 10:00:05am
I'm no intellectual giant like many here seem to think they are but I know a coward, bully, sook and a liar when I see and hear one. Just a shame this bloke has seemingly fooled most Aussies. I'm not a big Abbott fan by any means but Rudd makes me ashamed he represents my country. I do know a good Independent who has moral courage, stands up for the working people and poor and disaffected and his constituents ( imagine that !). I will vote for him and wish he could be PM.
Travel Smart:
09 Aug 2013 10:25:32am
Denny boring, another accusation of bias at the ABC they obviously haven't seen the front pages of their Liberal propaganda sheet.
08 Aug 2013 5:35:29pm
Still not as embarrassing as Julie Bishop's performance on Meet the Press this year when she was asked and failed to answer Hugh Riminton's question 6 times about where she would deport recognised refugees to while not breaching international conventions.
And not as embarrassed as the Liberal's candidate Jaymes Diaz in the Sydney electorate of Greenaway featured in the viral video that's gone global who failed to deliver 6 points in his "6 point plan" on stopping the boats, while clutching Tony Abbott's "Our Plan : Real Solutions" pamphlet, which apparently doesn't have the answers.
08 Aug 2013 5:47:14pm
Tristan, he bullied a 5 year old boy....... embarrassment has not a thing to do with it.
K Rudd is a nasty bit of work.
Not the cane toad:
08 Aug 2013 6:59:11pm
What rubbish. He did not bully any boy.
Tony Abbott is the confirmed bully.
08 Aug 2013 7:54:12pm
Yes he did, he slapped, then squeezed the boys hand, wrapping his fingers over the top as he did it.
The liitle boy, after Rudd had let go of his hand, turned to his side winced and said "ow".
08 Aug 2013 7:12:41pm
Wonder who was squeezing Bradbury and by what.
Bradbury epitomises the affect that the windup of pressure poses to those that have to protect the lies of the Labor machine.
Gillard in her last days fiddled the numbers along with Swan - Kev had to come and mop that poison chalice not in person but with Wong and Bowen.
Bradbury was party to that - kev distanced himself because it was real bad news.
Bowen took the can but anything after the Immigration Minister portfolio must be a breeze - or welcome relief.
"Sure Kev, yeah not a problem Kev, yeah I can gloss the porkies - yep yep blame those boat people for sure - upsetting the world economy and ours too"
Theatre does not come any better than this - if was not reality we switch it off and turn on another channel.
Gees I think Sept 7 we will do just that.
Lee of Brisbane:
08 Aug 2013 11:36:04pm
patarus : once again a post full of negativity and accusation without foundation. You must be a Liberal. Who would have guessed?
08 Aug 2013 9:36:02pm
Speaking of cooking the books and creative accounting, you are aware aren't you how our former Treasurer and my former local member Peter Costello threatened the jobs of several respected economists for criticising the integrity of his accounting methods.
Let's not forget that Costello was isolated in his accounting methods when he defied the Commonwealth Auditor-General and all the State Auditors-General and classified monies allocated to the states and not repayable as "loans" instead of "grants".
Then we had Costello deliberately misclassifying and overstating how much the then Coalition government spent on indigenous Australians and foreign aid which was exposed by Aid Watch.
Howard retaliated by removing the charitable status of Aid Watch.
And Joe Hockey retaliated against the Department of Climate Change when it costed the Coalition's direct action on climate change policy at $720 p.a for the average household, by targeting the entire department for its public service job cuts.
Then there's also Howard creating a new definition of unemployment so that those working full time hours (employed by ILO standards because they worked 1 hr that week) could supplement their meagre wages with Newstart (unemployed for Centrelink purposes).
Not to mention Abbott's work for the dole scheme designed to hide the long term unemployed.
"After 13 Years How Labor Has Failed Australia" (Liberal campaign document 1996 by Howard and Costello - Parliamentary Library)
"Long term unemployment hidden: Where an unemployed person undertakes a short bout of employment or subsidised employment and then becomes unemployed again, their term -of unemployment is calculated from the end of the subsidised or short term employment. Their length of unemployment is not calculated back to their last real job. This obscures the real extent of the long term unemployment problem." (page 35)
09 Aug 2013 10:24:36am
Cant believe I'm defending Rudd but it looks as if there are people on both sides who see what they want to see. Anyone who thinks Rudd hurt that kid , intentionally or otherwise, needs to have a good look at themselves.
08 Aug 2013 6:29:06pm
Maybe, but the prize for most embarrassing interview surely goes to David Bradbury who refused to answer a perfectly legitimate question (and a justified correction) by a radio announcer. Petulant little David couldn't handle the truth, so he attacked the interviewer who was quoting Hockey correctly. Still, I guess this is what you'd expect from a party who has lost most of what talent it had after they resigned when the narcissistic KRudd took over, after years of white-anting Gillard (and being criticised by Beattie for doing so.)
08 Aug 2013 7:13:45pm
"a perfectly legitimate question by a radio announcer" you say....
perhaps in a perfect world we would have legitimate radio announcers with legitimate questions but until then, we'll have to settle for A Jones and what appears to be a swathe of Liberal mouth peaces dominating our airwaves and polluting the minds of Australians with one sided, vitriolic freak shows masquarading as journalism..
09 Aug 2013 10:27:00am
I hope that wasnt an attempt to defend Bradbury. Did you hear the question?
09 Aug 2013 4:18:53pm
Bradbury's interview wasn't with a right wing shock jock, although I believe one of them replayed it, but with a pretty reasonable reporter, who just asked Bradbury some questions he didn't like, so he accused the reporter of bias and personally attacked him. He wouldn't have gotten away with it on 7.30 so don't worry about bias in that case.
James Murphy:
08 Aug 2013 8:55:42pm
I really don't get your arguments at all.
How exactly does it benefit anyone, for you, in response to someone saying something negative about your beloved Labor leader, to list a whole lot of things apparently done by Liberal politicians? Am I supposed to then think, "oh, well, those Liberals are bad, aren't they"?
As it happens, I don't think very much of any of our politicians. The degradation of Federal politics has reached a point where, with rare exception, I find our elected representatives so far beneath contempt that I can't see the point in comparing the actions of one moronic and selfish individual with the actions of another moronic and selfish individual who happens to have opposing political views.
I wish it was different, but Labor or Liberal, I can't see anything changing for the better, (politically speaking), any time soon, if we continue to accept the poor quality of candidates they put up for election. My local Liberal member (sadly, in a very safe seat) makes a token effort at elections, but between them, is as quiet as a mouse, and seemingly is always too busy to actually spend time meeting with any constituents. The fact that the Labor candidate barely makes any effort (even if it is a safe Liberal seat) is also just as disappointing, meaning that the candidates with the highest visibility during the campaign are some independents, who seem to actually put in some effort, even if some seem a bit loony.
You can keep playing your infantile "Labor is better than Liberal" (or vice versa) games, but you really are just rearranging deckchairs on the titanic.
08 Aug 2013 5:40:17pm
Or Abbot belting a wall during an argument....
Your point is?
08 Aug 2013 7:17:39pm
And that was while he was intimidating a woman. You can take the boy out of St John's College, but you can't take St John's College out of the boy.
A happy little debunker:
08 Aug 2013 8:01:38pm
For shame - you repeat a fishwifes tale that the authoritive reporter of, cannot decide when it happened or who witnessed it and refuses to enounciate the actual details of, excepting that he is positive it happened!
It apparantly occoured simultaneously in both June and September witnessed by 2 people (who did not see anything) and for a motive that fails logical examination.
On the other hand we have footage of a man deliberately physically handle a 5 year old child and causing distress in that child.
Now which should we take seriously?
08 Aug 2013 8:20:45pm
perhaps the question should really be, should we take seriously the implication, splattered throughout this quite comical narrative, that the Prime Minister of the country has, on national TV, set out to harm a five year old child.....perspective please....
A happy little debunker:
08 Aug 2013 9:19:13pm
In absence of any explaination, we should go to footage.
The footage abolutely demonstrates
1. An invitition to a 'high5' by an adult to a 5 year old child
2. Acceptance by that 5 year old child
3. The deliberate grasping of that childs hand by the adult who forcabley does not let go for a protracted period.
4. The childs stated distress
So what was the adults 'intention'? (Please encourage him to advise us)
Does the intent really matter considering the adults deliberate actions and the childs stated distress?
09 Aug 2013 12:53:32pm
No-one really cares about that, or the poor distressed whinging child. Adults are interested in policies, whining kids are interested in the things you are talking about. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, bud.
08 Aug 2013 10:05:32pm
The 5 year old up staged Kevin Rudd, that is the gist of it, watch the clip !!
Kevin Rudd has a Roo Loose in the top paddock. Just look at the abnormal way he dealt with Julia, cross him or up stage him and he is extremely vengeful.
Lee of Brisbane:
08 Aug 2013 11:52:45pm
What a load of crap debunker. You seriously want us to believe Rudd went out and deliberately inflicted pain on a five year old just for kicks? This is the same sort of nonsense that Abbott and his cronies have been pedaling for months. Just plain lies and crap.
Abbotts outburst of which you refer can only be described as a "She said" "He said" story. Given Abbotts history of lies and misrepresentations I think it prudent to believe the "She said" version, don't you?
A happy little debunker:
09 Aug 2013 7:23:51am
On the one hand we have no qualitative or quantitive evidence of a young mans alleged 'wrongdoing' - just supposition, rumour and heresay.
On the other we have the actual video footage!
Mmmm, what to believe?
09 Aug 2013 9:44:56am
It's impossible to argue with any mind that has its beliefs cast in stone - even if you are arguing with reason and logic. See several posts on this page for confirmation.
09 Aug 2013 12:53:08pm
You do realise that there is footage of senior Labor figures referring to Rudd as a psychopath amongst other things. They are most certainly NOT he said, she said.
09 Aug 2013 12:50:05pm
"Oh won't somebody think of the children!" She cried desperately. But only Jesus heard her cries, and he wept to see such a shining heart amongst such rough stones.
Or maybe the kid can toughen up and take a high-five like a human child rather than a bedewed cobweb.
08 Aug 2013 7:51:01pm
Of which you have no evidence.
You have the say-so of one person who does not like Abbott. No-one saw anything and Abbott has completely denied it.
Sorry, but you have nothing and trying to prosecute someone on this type of thing just shows how low you are!
Mark James:
08 Aug 2013 9:03:06pm
Come on JohnP, there was no evidence of WMD in Iraq in 2003, but that didn't stop the Coalition and all 175 of Murdoch's newspapers insisting we should have a war to dismantle them.
09 Aug 2013 7:27:56am
Don't keep raising that worn out old furphy about WMDs in Iraq.
You know perfectly well that all the intelligence, including that from Australia's own weapons inspector Richard Butler, showed that they existed.
After Saddam had killed something like 20,000 Kurds with chemical weapons and permanently blinded and maimed hundreds of thousands more, do you really think that the USA and its allies should have simply ignored the intelligence?
Yes, most of that intelligence turned out to be wrong. But if it had been correct and had been ignored, what would your response to Saddam's attacks with nuclear and chemical weapons on, say, Israel or Kuwait have been?
Don't bother to answer, because I can guess your response - it would all have been John Howard's fault.
Mark James:
09 Aug 2013 10:44:20am
John, how can you honestly say there was evidence that WMD existed in Iraq in 2003 when no WMD were found?
Here's what David Kay, a Washington hawk who advocated fervently for the war, said on January 28, 2004:
"Let me begin by saying, we were almost all wrong, and I certainly include myself here . . . I am convinced that there were no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction at the time of the war."
Nobody is saying that Iraq didn't once posess WMD, but Iraq did not posess WMD in 2003. And if there were no WMD in Iraq in 2003, there cannot have been any evidence that there were.
09 Aug 2013 12:33:06pm
The ISG report said that Saddam had WMD programs but most were shut down to hide them from the UN weapons inspectors. Interviews with high level members of the Iraqi government under Saddam indicated that Saddam had all intentions of reinstating the programs after the heat had died off from the UN Sanctions. They also located small caches of chemical weapons as well.
09 Aug 2013 2:20:56pm
Andrew Wilkie (when he was a spook) was vilified by John Winston for telling the public there were no WMD's in Iraq and you still try to peddle this crock of cow manure.
don't believe the media:
09 Aug 2013 4:39:12pm
Naive to the extreme. Ask Hans Blix for the facts or do you believe the defamation the Americans used on him too. There were no WMDs, Saddam invited whomever the Americans would like to send in to inspect the enitre country for WMD right to the very end and on all our media we were told by Colin Powel et al that Saddam was refusing to co-operate and forcing military intervention. They were bare faced lies by the Americans and they relied on the compliant media to spread them verbatim. Saddam was a despot, but he wasn't suicidal. Howard knew all the facts and that's why our SAS was in there before Bush even declared the invasion. No conspiracy theories, public record if you choose to research beyond the propaganda.
09 Aug 2013 2:51:17pm
Saddam Hussein said he had WMD.
Like the man who ran towards the police brandishing a gun, got shot, and said "Not fair, it was only plastic".
09 Aug 2013 7:20:07am
That was a false claim published by David Marr for which he has never been able to provide any support or evidence.
There have been, on the other hand, reports from eye witnesses who state that it never happened.
You are at liberty to believe whatever pleases you.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:37:01am
"... for which he has never been able to provide any support or evidence."
Just eye-witness testimony from the victim. Abbott is happy to base his entire life around supposed witnesses to revelations from 2000 years ago but we should treat with utter dismissal the evidence of the victim, even if what she claims is entirely in keeping with the character of the man we know?
09 Aug 2013 1:54:42pm
Not sure how an eye witness can say that the wall punching never happened unless they were in the company of either of the people involved 100% of the time. It still seems to be in the "believe whatever you want" category to me.
09 Aug 2013 2:21:48pm
How can you be an eye-witness to something that never happened?
08 Aug 2013 5:41:56pm
I don't know. What happened to his odds when he was doing those dodgy ute dealings that hero Godwin Gretch informed us of?
08 Aug 2013 5:47:38pm
Let's not forget how Howard removed the charitable status of Aid Watch after the organisation exposed how Howard deliberately misclassified and misused foreign aid on expenditure which had nothing to do with foreign aid like the Coalition's legal bills in the AWB scandal.
Or how Peter Costello abused his position as Treasurer on several occasions by calling the employers of economists including at the ANZ demanding that the economist lose their job.
Or how the Coalition has ongoing problems with Treasury because Head of Treasury had warned against bad policies like then Water Minister Malcolm Turnbull's uncosted $10 billion water plan.
Or how Joe Hockey is completely dismantling the Department of Climate Change because they costed the Coalition's direct action on climate change policy at $720 p.a. per average household.
08 Aug 2013 6:40:28pm
R U serious - do you have kids, ever played with them? Bullying?? You really are trapped in an alternate universe where a giggling little kid goes "ouch" and it's political capital for your side.
08 Aug 2013 7:09:59pm
Sure pop, it would be a deal breaker.
08 Aug 2013 7:13:39pm
Did he? Or was that wishful thinking on your part.
08 Aug 2013 7:43:52pm
Watch the video and decide for yourself, JohnnoH. The rest of the electorate will be doing the same.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:40:17am
I've seen it - it's clear. He is a child-abuser - and he chose to reveal it on national TV. What was he thinking? Oh well, I suppose it had to come out somewhere. There's no chance at all it was benign - he so obviously wanted to hurt a five-year old for all to see.
08 Aug 2013 7:34:27pm
why not go the whole way Pop, give him horns and a cape, and feature him on A Current Affair - 'beware parents are your kids safe'.
08 Aug 2013 4:37:37pm
Problem is, Kev is too busy playing with the non voters
08 Aug 2013 7:19:39pm
And Abbott hasn't got the confidence of the voters.
08 Aug 2013 4:39:25pm
Tony Abbotts NEW announcement today ....to give employers over $3000 to employ an unemployed person for 6 months!
Tony, it's been done before mate! Once the free money dries up 'the kid's out the door and unemployed again'!
08 Aug 2013 5:23:57pm
Amnesia, Yes, it has been tried before and basically it is transferring the unemployment benefit from the individual to the employer for six months.
For it to work and avoid exploitation, the employer should be required to continue the employment for a further six months after the subsidy has been withdrawn.
It's probably worth another try.
08 Aug 2013 7:20:30pm
No it's not worth trying because it is breeding false hope.
08 Aug 2013 7:28:56pm
Terry2: exploitation will kill it off - besides the fact you are actually subsidising business to procure such acts of exploitation.
Think about it - and a sensible solution is all too evident?
Really there is a very sensible solution - think about it - don't think exploitation or you will not find a solution?
08 Aug 2013 11:11:09pm
If it isn't economical for an employer to hire someone, a pitiful extra $3000 over the course a year isn't going to make it worthwhile either.
08 Aug 2013 5:51:33pm
Wages subsidies should only be permitted for jobs which teach real skills which are in short supply and take months to develop.
There are too many retail traineeships for fast food outlets, and the Skills Victoria free courses for young Australians and permanent residents are aimed at lower level skills and are too short in duration, unstructured and expensive.
Waterloo Sunset. 2014:
08 Aug 2013 7:02:17pm
Well, what else are they gonna do?
Car manufacturing and the production of any type of engineering product is unavailable in Australia. The old boiler makers skills are just not required here.
Any suggestions?
08 Aug 2013 9:43:28pm
Trade skills like plumbers, mechanics, or William Angliss quality fine dining hospitality, etc.
You know, the skills that employment agencies and migration agencies are currently importing on 457 visas.
I see little reason why fast food franchisees should get taxpayer funded wage subsidies and retail traineeships for training people to push menu buttons on the panel, and take customer orders.
X-Ray Eyes:
08 Aug 2013 10:19:43pm
The amazing upshot of this 'New" abbott policy is you have to be unemployed for 6 months!
Bad luck for anyone who loses their job! May as well go on a 6 month holiday. Who would you employ some poor bugger who just lost his job because of no reason of his own or someone with a $250 gift every fortnight?
Kangaroo Edward:
09 Aug 2013 9:21:51am
It's called a thought bubble. After three years of grizzling Abbott should have something better than the uncosted waffle he wants to hoodwink us with.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:42:07am
"... give employers over $3000 to employ an unemployed person for 6 months!"
Great - I'll take 1000 of them! I've always wanted a harbourside mansion in need of some landscaping.
08 Aug 2013 4:39:27pm
Great...now we have three proven and confirmed fiscally incompetent clowns running for labor seats in Queensland..that's of course If you include Swan although he is on shaky ground and may not retain his seat.
08 Aug 2013 7:24:54pm
Really? I thought everybody blamed the four and a half years Anna Bligh had at the helm. Tories pick and choose at their whim. At Least Labor didn't cut $1B from child protection like the germs from the LNP did. You can draw your own conclusion as to what cares the LNP have for children.
08 Aug 2013 10:18:36pm
Don't make me laugh JohnnoH..
That sort of talk is purely desperate and delusional...have a look at the waiting periods which for some extend beyond 3 years for surgery in our public hospitals under labor..now that's criminal.
More grubs there to fill a decent back yard!
08 Aug 2013 4:46:56pm
I still say that come polling day people will vote for the party and not man. This is our Federal government we dealing with here, not a TV reality show where we phone in our votes for the person who has been in our face most. It's time somebody took Rudd to task on this BS reality TV and TwitFace approach of his by throwing up the record of his disastrous party over the last 6 years.
08 Aug 2013 5:41:07pm
Before polling day, people will judge Abbott and Joe Hockey for their failure to engage in public debates, abide by their own Charter of Budget Honesty, refusal to provide the bottom line (apparently we have to add it up ourselves), and refusal to release costings.
Yesterday (Aug 2013) Abbott told us to go back in time to his May budget reply speech for the details of how he'll fund his 1.5% company tax cut. Abbott told us after his May budget reply speech that he would release policies and costings "in good time".
08 Aug 2013 9:13:24pm
Tristan, I'm now confused, abbott either has policies that must be costed or he has no policies. If abbott has no policies as you constantly state, he is not spending money and therefore he will have a surplus.
With his maternity leave scheme, he announced that in january, go back and have a look.
09 Aug 2013 12:19:19pm
Greg - Tristan is only interested in what happened two to three years ago. Anything more recent misses his/her radar.
09 Aug 2013 11:24:11am
So Greg, since you are so knowledgeable, go back to Abbott's May budget reply speech and point out specifically where Abbott detailed how he'd fund the 1.5% company tax cut from 1 Jul 2015 - $5 billion over 2 years.
Let me clear something up for you.
The Coalition have policies and (dodgy) costings. They have not been released to the electorate.
They have a plan for IR, mass privatisation of public assets, offshoring of tech jobs, tinkering with the GST but like 457 visas in 1996 and Workchoices in 2005, they are completely failing to campaign on these issues, and therefore have no mandate to implement them if they win government.
Elizabeth Rudlow:
08 Aug 2013 5:43:45pm
Fine and while they're at it they need to ask Abbott for a policy. No, wait...
08 Aug 2013 6:24:55pm
Rudd is using an effective medium to get his message accross thats all. at least he has a message, unless you call slogans and continuous spin without substance a message
one month out of a Federal election, and still no detail on the opposition's intentions regarding cuts.
clearly Abott is doing what he does best - cunning. why release any detail when polls indicate he could ride in as is?
08 Aug 2013 4:50:14pm
The bookies are right more than they are wrong.
Not the cane toad:
08 Aug 2013 7:02:42pm
That would mean Beattie will win the seat of Forde then?
08 Aug 2013 7:28:40pm
Not only that, but the odds are now Labor will not only retain its seats but may win up 10 not 7 as previously thought.
08 Aug 2013 11:34:26pm
Na sorry to rain on your parade but the latest reachtell polling as of today has labor behind in every qld marginal seat. Seems the spin of labor is as hollow as a termite infested log
09 Aug 2013 7:37:56am
That's not what he polls are saying, JohnnoH.
The latest Reachtel poll in Forde is showing that Beattie is 9% behind the incumbent Coalition member, and slipping.
Interestingly, the same poll shows that Abbott has a higher rating as preferred PM than Rudd.
Admittedly that was a small poll and was conducted in one electorate only. But as Forde has been in the news so much and as Beattie is such a high profile candidate, it must be worrying to the Government.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:47:05am
"Admittedly that was a small poll and was conducted in one electorate only."
In other words it was a worthless PR-motivated exercise. I took a poll of myself and discovered that everyone will be staying home that day and watching videos on YouTube. Admittedly that was a small poll... but it must have the major parties etc etc.
09 Aug 2013 4:28:52pm
Jhonno, Beatty will lose seats for Labor out side the SE corner. He may have some support there, but is immensely unpopular in the regions, where quite a few of those must win seats are.
08 Aug 2013 7:10:56pm
I'll be watching to see if the odds change in the seat of Brisbane, where I am. The State Government has just donated a large parcel of land to the Brisbane Central State School, overlooking the adjacent Private School who were prepeared to pay big dollars for it.
Mitor the Bold:
09 Aug 2013 10:44:24am
"The bookies are right more than they are wrong."
They didn't see the financial crash - they don't have any more insight than a Gallop poll (in fact, far less). Let's see what their odds are on the day.
08 Aug 2013 4:59:41pm
Well whichever way it goes let's hope we never let recycled hacks near our money again.
Rudd the dud is one such hack. They reasons why he was dumped should be enough to ensure we don't get him back - a dysfunctional control freak. He is an economic illiterate.
Referring to the racing parlance usually when good horses are retired they spend their days in lush paddock. Poor performers go to a knackery. I doubt there would be a knackery who would even take this dud. So why foist him on us again?
08 Aug 2013 6:35:34pm
economic illiterate....oh yes makes perfect sense
Abbott wont debate Rudd on the economy because being seen with an economic illiterate would bring his prestigious economic credentials into disrepute..
09 Aug 2013 4:39:40pm
But Abott has a degree in economics, not Rudd.
Not the cane toad:
08 Aug 2013 7:05:30pm
No, you're confused Tone.
Abbott was the one Costello called an economic illiterate.
He should know.
08 Aug 2013 9:08:14pm
You'll find that it was Kroger who said that, at a time that he was in a spat with Costello, and wanted to cause him harm. Costello denied that he had ever said this.
Why do you repeat lies? Oh, I forgot, you support the Australian Liar's Party.
09 Aug 2013 2:28:53pm
So the Fiberals have never told a porky like " I give a rock solid, iron clad guarantee that the Medicare Safety Net will not increase" or contended they have core and non-core policies?
08 Aug 2013 7:30:23pm
The economists don't call Labor economic illierates and in fact if you have a lokk what Joe Rubbery Figures Hockey has been dribbling about lately the term fits him perfectly.
08 Aug 2013 9:27:04pm
To my esteemed critics:
Rudd- a-dud-dud the quintessential arthritic, recycled hack
: who believes that because some ratings agency have us on triple A rating we need not be concerned about debt and deficits.
: who believes that desperation low interest rates by RBA are a good thing (only someone with no breadth of vision or concept of the implications could make such an absolute statement)
: who could not deliver a surplus despite promising it
: who has no courage of convictions and stands for little. Hence his ?greatest moral challenge? became the greatest wavering wobble until he got sacked.
: who instead of delivering a workable solution with Indonesia delivers an unworkable dud with PNG
: who leaves a litany of failed, mainly simpleton ideas including pink batts (only a bat brain would dream up a dog of idea that would cripple the industry for a decade if it succeeded), BER over-priced halls, price watch, fuel watch, dismantling Howard's asylum policy, a laptop for every child, the hospital system we still await, back of the envelop white elephant NBN on the basis of a failed FTN tender.
:who has half of his own team not wanting to work for or with him.
Try name one major achievement attributable to Rudd (and don't give me the spin of the GFC - thank China ? but I don't knock him for the action ? maybe excessive, ill thought out but probably understandable giving the circumstances at the time)
His tenure is littered with an absence of key management principles which involve planning, leading, organising and control. The strategic ideas have been so bereft of direction that he now has to talk of a "new" way. We would not need this if these were already incorporated in the ongoing strategic planning.
Whitlam was pure gold studded with precious diamonds by comparison. It is far better to be leaderless than have this Rudd-a-dud-dud clown in charge.
The likes of Rudd, Gillard and Swan should never have been let within cooee of our money.
I was too kind in saying Rud-a-dud-dud was simply an economic illiterate.
09 Aug 2013 11:28:00am
Joe Hockey has also promised a surplus in his first term and every year after that.
The question is whether the electorate can stand how the Coalition will achieve it - $75 billion worth of savage spending cuts and tax hikes, a broadening of the base and/or hike in the rate of GST, sacking 20,000 public servants and replacing them with casuals, contractors and labour hire employees, mass privatisation of public assets including Medibank Private, driving down pay and conditions with 457 visas, slashing of penalty rates, removal of unfair dismissal protection and reintroduction of statutory individual non-union contracts.
Des des:
08 Aug 2013 5:02:33pm
One really wonders how reliable the odds are and following the money is any real indicator of results in marginal seats. Often logic is missing...one remembers the Irish punters who put a few.punt,o n a tv alcoholic priest to be Pope because the odds were 1000 to 1. " I know he cannot win said one punter,but the odds are too good to resist". Little evidence that following the money in marginal seats is any logical guide.
Sceptical Sam:
08 Aug 2013 6:07:45pm
Maybe Des des, but remember Old Rowley won the Melbourne Cup at 100/1 in 1940.
Who said youtube was a modern invention?
Mind you, Narcissist Kev at $4.00 should be swabbed for the untruth performance virus before he is cleared to run, in my view.
If he were, I think they'd have to scratch him.
08 Aug 2013 5:06:52pm
If that's what you think, Stephen, put your house on it, juicy odds for an even money bet.
Sceptical Sam:
08 Aug 2013 8:12:54pm
Talk about mug punters. You vote Labor, mate?
Nip, mate, where's that even money again?
Let me give you the drum, the coalition on Stephen's figures is 3/1 on (approx), while the Labor incompetents are at 3/1 against.
When you find evens give us a call. You'll be knocked over in the rush, cobber.
08 Aug 2013 9:48:30pm
Are those odds from Tom Waterhouse Sceptical Sam?
"Tom Waterhouse has the benefit of the wise counsel of the president of the NSW Liberal Party. The bookmaker, who this week refused to front a federal parliamentary committee into gambling advertising, has Chris Downy on his side through Mr Downy's job as chief executive of the Australian Wagering Council."
Sceptical Sam:
09 Aug 2013 11:59:18am
No they're Stephen's.
I wouldn't give Tom Waterhouse the time of day let alone credit anything that he might say to a Federal Parliamentary Committee as being in the interest of anybody other than himself. Does that resonate with you Tristan? Like, does he have a little ruddster in him that he's successfully hidden to date? Waterhouse grins like a Labor Party ad campaign with Rudd talking like a Pitt Street spiv in the background.
Both men are very doubtful prospects. The Ruddster will be found out soon enough, and so will little Tommy the Tinkerer. It doesn't take long to cotton on.
08 Aug 2013 5:14:24pm
Mr Abbott pork barrelling down in Tassie again I see. The man just can't help himself. For a man supposedly out there to support the business sector, does he really believe that $3,250 will make a difference?
Lee of Brisbane:
09 Aug 2013 12:04:03am
No he does not JOP, its capped and has no productivity improvements attached so it is the same as Howards $1000 dollars to pensioners trick he played on the electorate. Buy votes at the election and ignore for the rest of eternity.
By the way, that $1000 dollar promise went to self funded retiree's whilst the poorer pensioners got next to nothing. Not how the policy was sold at election time. My dad has still got his one dollar cheque. He brings it out every election to remind himself of just how deceitful Howard was.
You cannot even believe their pork barreling without reading the fine print. Abbotts own beliefs are that its not to be believed until it is written down and of late Abbott has proved that you can't even believe what he has committed to in writing.
08 Aug 2013 5:21:07pm
Continuing on the racing theme I should point out that the favorites win less than 30% of races.
A swing to labor of less than 1% will see it win by 4 or 5 seats.
The Conservatives being at odds of $1.25 is an absolute laugh.
I find that odds are most often framed using the the wishful preconceptions and bias of the market framers, hence the unrealistic odds.
A prime example of wishful preconceptions is my annual laugh and subsequent bet on Qld. when NSW are invariably framed as the favorites for the State of Origin RL Series.
All this said perhaps the bookies expect that the obviously semi numerate supporters of the Conservatives will splurge on the Liberals even at such ridiculous odds.
Forrest Gardener:
08 Aug 2013 5:56:54pm
Pedro, favorites do much better than 50% in 2 horse races.
True Blue Ozzie:
08 Aug 2013 5:26:58pm
Either way, were all going to be screwed over anyway !
08 Aug 2013 6:20:35pm
Ain't that the case! The problem is systemic and will not be fixed by simplistic " policies but by long term structural reform in the government sector
08 Aug 2013 5:28:20pm
The race is well in truly in the mud and Labor through Bradbury demonstrated that its ticker is vulnerable.
Amazing how the faceless men pulled another rabbit out of smoldering fire - ah here is Beattie put him along side that other rabbit Carr.
For the life of me I can't understand how Labor acn use Carr as he set up the inevitable demise of NSW Labor by his early mismanagement and the promulgation of the players that eventually are facing criminal corruption charges.
And I suppose that is where Beattie comes in - NSW is stuffed we better at least should save QLD from the same plughole.
It is really a case of the baby being thrown out with the dishwater but with Labor the dish went as well.
08 Aug 2013 9:50:00pm
Speaking of corruption charges, dare I speak the name of Arthur Sinodinis and his connection to Liberal donor Australian Water Services.
Honest Johnny:
09 Aug 2013 10:13:29am
patarus, that is rubbish! Beattie is just doing an 'Alfie Langer'. He is making a comeback when the team needs him. Its a very Queensland thing to do. Beattie's comeback will help make it 'nine-on-the-trot' for the maroons.
08 Aug 2013 5:34:47pm
Seems Labor is not going well and things are getting desperate when the ABC is reduced to this type of asinine commentary.
Taxpayers deserve better return on the billion or so dollars the ABC consumes each year!
08 Aug 2013 6:39:20pm
totally agree...
the abc should run an honest rag...much like the daily telegraph
08 Aug 2013 7:13:34pm
And Peter Reith's commentary published on this site, is that a sign of the ABC's desperation too??
Forrest Gardener:
09 Aug 2013 8:10:33am
Rudy, every two minutes hate needs its Goldstein.
08 Aug 2013 5:52:01pm
Stephen, the best odds at the moment is for either the Coalition &/or Labor to win between 71-80 seats @ $2.50 but we cannot discount the fact that Tony Abbott will falter at the debates &/or during the election campaign. If one listened carefully to Tony Abbott today they would have realised he is trying to revive the woodchip industry. But is he fair dinkum given that the print media in this country will only be around possibly a couple of years. Someone should tell Abbott this is the digital age & that the print media is coming to an end.
08 Aug 2013 5:58:33pm
Oh no, first the desperate pro-Coalition bloggers hanging on the betting odds to lift their spirits after the polls started to go South for them, and now a whole article in The Drum about the same rubbish.... As I predicted, next time will be an article about the certain consensus among professional astrologists that the stars and planets clearly indicate that Abbott "should expect a pleasant surprise"....
Please would some smart guy willing to write an intelligent article come to the fore?
Sceptical Sam:
08 Aug 2013 8:17:42pm
Astrologists, like environmentalist, vote too, you know Alpo.
And, each is addicted to the ABC's starry eyed analysis of the left welkin.
08 Aug 2013 6:03:33pm
A betting/gambling journalist that does not believe the odds?
Hope springs eternal for Labor apologists, but then we learn of a desperation by way of recycling leaders - no I speak not of Beattie but recycling Rudd!
What a brain wave, what a master stroke, and it would have worked but for the fact that an election could not be held on the day of Rudd's political assignation of Gillard.
Time as it turns out has become a great enemy for Labor as time allows more incompetence to be revealed such as the $30Billion added to the deficit in 10 weeks, the unravelling of the PNG solution, the FBT, more stumbles and more bumbles ... Then the memory turns to the past as we remember:
The reason Rudd was thrown out in 2010 for dropping the approval rating to 30%...
The duplicity and treachery of Rudd's sabotage of Labor's election campaign in 2010 for no other reason other than hatred...
.... Remembrance of just how bad Rudd was are starting to come back...
Follow this by his failed change against Gillard after which expedient hypocrisy dictated that he commit a 100% loyalty to Gillard and no further challenges...
Tho he pledged loyalty in reality he started to damage the Labor Party with divisive tactics in destabilising Gillard....
...More memories are returning...
With the inevitable in sight Labor front benchers resigned in disgust in droves...
Others called Rudd and a psychopath, a control freak who refused to delegate, in fact this was escalated to an abusive control freak by a US Ambassador, yet others called him a megalomaniac, egocentric ..
A bunch of them resigned - here is a short list: Shorten, Macklin, Burke, Elis, Plibersek, Wong and the best of the lot , 'backflip' Perrett who promised us he would immediately quit parliament and force a bi election if Rudd took over...
Guess what all of them went back on their word and are at the feet of the almighty one ready at his beck and call ...
And now Labor is so bereft of talent as to call on Beattie, the architect of the Qld demise, to help out...
You see as time passes we remember more and what we remember is the dysfunction of Labor.
As you n=may recall during those divisive days in the wilderness Rudd was called a "megalomaniacal psychopath".
I ask would anyone trust the reins of power for our great Nation to one who his own called a "megalomaniacal psychopath..."
Start remembering if you have not started before its too late voters...
08 Aug 2013 6:49:39pm
Short memories - remember the Abbott a thon towards the end of the 2010 election? - no policies just stunts - watch for a repeat as the day approaches. how about the odds on a 48 hour campaign for the last 2 days - 1 better than last time.
That said $1.25 seems measly odds - probably some bet spreading from those who want to get on early expecting the polls to do their usual close before the day.
the working man:
08 Aug 2013 6:19:35pm
Abbott has sat behind the Murdoch press just expecting to fall into
the PM's chair.Even now that the election campiagn is under way
he is allowed to just walk out on press conferences when the questions
get tough. This is a hollow man who is a puppet to Murdoch and the big
end of town.
Not the cane toad:
08 Aug 2013 7:11:21pm
That is the Abbott way.
When the questions get tough, turn and run away.
Blue Flame:
08 Aug 2013 8:04:38pm
Turning and walking away from questions is a better option than the disturbing head-nodding, silence treatment that Mark Riley got.
08 Aug 2013 9:17:00pm
LOL, yeah, and how many times has mark riley interviewed abbott or a senior member of the coalition since. Great journalism that.
08 Aug 2013 7:37:26pm
We all know why Abbott sold out to Murdoch. In return for News Limited Support, Murdoch would get complete control of the NBN!
08 Aug 2013 6:30:27pm
I think the bookies always get it right.
Forrest Gardener:
09 Aug 2013 8:13:17am
Quite so Linda, at least if they are doing their job properly. Risk managers par excellence.
08 Aug 2013 6:38:10pm
I have never been a betting person - well with bookies anyway - and could someone explain to me the meaning when they say $1.40 or $2.50
What on earth does that mean in English?
08 Aug 2013 7:52:18pm
It means that if you bet $1 and win then they'll pay you $1.40 or $2.50. If you placed a $100 bet today that Labor would win the election and they did the bookies would pay you $400. If you put the same bet on the coalition to win they'd only pay you $124.
08 Aug 2013 7:25:49pm
I hope mine is the last entry on this one. Why? Because I have a simple question for those who denigrate anything Labor. Please, please tell me what Tony Abott and his mouthpieces stand for? I honestly have no idea.
Sceptical Sam:
08 Aug 2013 8:40:52pm
How can you ask a question then hope that yours is the last post Matihari?
In answer to your question let me enlighten you. The Liberal philosophy can be encapsulated thus:
1. The inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples;
2. Lean government that minimises interference in the citizens' daily lives and maximizes the opportunity for individual and private sector initiative;
4. Government that nurtures and encourages the nation's citizens through incentive, rather than by putting limits on people through the punishing disincentives of burdensome taxes and the stifling structures of the corporate state and bureaucratic red and green tape;
5.The freedoms of parliamentary democracy - the freedom of thought, worship, speech and association;
6. The rule of law;
7. A just and humane society in which the importance of the family and the role of law and justice is maintained;
8. Equal opportunity for all Australians; and the encouragement and facilitation of wealth so that all may enjoy the highest possible standards of living, health, education and social justice;
9. That, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and that businesses and individuals - not government - are the true creators of wealth and employment;
10. In preserving Australia's natural beauty and the environment for future generations; and,
11. That our nation has a constructive role to play in maintaining world peace and democracy through alliance with other free nations.
08 Aug 2013 9:38:34pm
Mate, he asked about Abbott. He didn't ask you to regurgitate the dross political parties put on their front pages.
What does Abbott stand for you ask?
Getting himself into the seat of power. That is what Abbott stands for.
And from the look of his antics, along with his inability to provide details, in print, of what he intends to do should he get that power, or how much it is all going to cost, suggests to me that he is desperate for that power, any way he can get it.
Carry on.
08 Aug 2013 10:20:19pm
nice speech....but take a look around you and tell me what you see..
I see a world in which the gap between the rich and poor is widening. I see a world in which capitalism has gone crazy evidenced by individuals amassing wealth comparable to small countries and CEO's walking away with payouts that would sustain thousands of impoverished people for years. I see a climate in distress, and getting worse. I see animals and plants dying off, and future generations saying things like "God what were they thinking"? I see corporate criminals robbing millions and getting away with it while the 'have nots' in this world are getting the book thrown at them for pinching fifty bucks from the local Seven Eleven.
Take your right-wing values, that you profess underpin the principals of equality and justice, and take them to Mars - this planet doesn't need them.
09 Aug 2013 12:48:55am
All great lofty ideals, but in no way does Abbott represent them. BTW, you left out point #3, maybe that's why I'm unconvinced. #3 must have been killer.
09 Aug 2013 12:52:52am
Is the missing item 3 non-core philosophy, or did Joe Hockey number them for you? The Howard government, which Abbott holds up as his exemplar, observed your list in the contradiction of items 1,2,4,7,8,9 (govt. IT outsourcing, for example, went to a notably inefficient private sector, or one that annexed any efficiency benefit to itself instead of back to the public) ,10 and 11. Enlightenment? Liberals ain't liberal.
09 Aug 2013 7:45:53am
It's the enduring hypocrisy at the heart of conservative ideology that really gets me:
We're all for individual liberty and freedom - except if you are gay and want to marry the person you love.
We're all for free markets - except when bailing out our 'too big to fail' mates/brothers in the big end of town.
We're all for preserving Australia's natural environment - except when that pesky green tape stops us making money.
We're all for small government - except when we want to regulate what goes on in your bedroom.
We're all pro life - except for our hawkish military interventions in impoverished nations. And the death penalty.
We're all for education and opportunity for all - except if you're too poor to pay the fees. Or want to learn about climate science. Or evolution.
Conservative ideology relies on a belief that some people can never and must never be able to climb out of disadvantage and abject poverty, thus providing a competitive source of cheap labour and consumers too uneducated to fully understand the poisonous contents and ramifications of buying the cheap, mass-produced rubbish the conservative entrepreneurs are selling them. A true liberal ideology unashamedly places some minor imposts on the wealthiest and most priviliged in the belief that all should be given the same opportunities. The best trick the conservatives ever pulled was to convince ignorant people that they will ever get the opportunities they need under a Liberal government.
08 Aug 2013 10:05:50pm
The Coalition stand for :
Austerity - $75 billion worth of spending cuts and tax hikes over 4 years as reported by the Financial Review this year.
Small government = privatisation of public assets. The Coalition like to use the term "Commission of Audit" - just look at Qld mass asset sell off of ports, energy providers. Abbott will sell Medibank Private although he fails to mention this in "Our Plan" in 2013, just as the Coalition completely failed to campaign on 457 visas in 1996 and Workchoices in 2005.
Flexible workforces - casuals, contractors, labour hire employees, 457 visas, Workchoices, non-unionised staff, individual contracts
Contestability - sack public servants, outsource government services to the private sector and offshore tech jobs
Special economic zones - northern Australia and now Tasmania - slack environmental standards, lax regulations including IR, special tax concessions and a fast tracked overseas guest worker scheme
Productivity Commission inquiry into IR = removal of unfair dismissal protection, slashing penalty rates (which independent Nick Xenophon also supports), reintroduction of statutory, non-union individual contracts, creation of a new body to overrule Fair Work Australia decisions
White paper on tax = broadening of the base and/or increasing the rate of the GST with the cooperation of Liberal governments in 4 states - WA, Vic, NSW and Qld and complicity of traitorous ALP Premiers in ACT and Tasmania and Country Liberal Party in NT.
1 million jobs in 5 years and 2 million jobs in 10 years = accelerated 457 skilled migration scheme, a "mainstay" of the Coalition's immigration scheme, green army planting tree jobs, vocationally irrelevant work for the dole jobs for those aged 50 years old and under.
Notice that Abbott never mentions the quality of the jobs or designates that the jobs will go to Australians. If Abbott sacks 20,000 public servants then replaces them with casual labour hire employees that are turned over several times, he could "create" 60,000 jobs.
08 Aug 2013 10:13:35pm
"10. In preserving Australia's natural beauty and the environment for future generations;"
That's the biggest crock of crap Sceptical Sam.
The Liberal's policy of "cutting green tape" is their euphemism for lowering environmental standards. Some practical examples may help.
"Coalition efforts to stop the creation of a vast network of marine parks around the Australian coastline have fallen flat in parliament."
("Marine parks safe despite Coalition moves" SMH 5 Jun 2013)
Abbott's "northern special economic zone" benefits the mining industry by allowing them to mine in previous protected areas.
The Victorian government is issuing 99 year leases on national parks to developers.
State governments, especially in Qld and WA where mining and Liberal governments prevail, will be given greater freedom to set and follow their own (lower) environmental standards.
08 Aug 2013 10:19:15pm
As always Sceptical Sam, just like Abbott's "Our Plan : Real Solutions", your list is a list of aspirations.
Let's see you express those aspirations as corresponding Coalition policies with details and practical examples of how the Liberals have enacted this in real life.
Sceptical Sam:
09 Aug 2013 12:10:43pm
Try the paying down of Keating's $10 Billion black hole; a history of balanced budgets with a Future Fund of $70 Billion, an Education Fund of $10 Billion (since ratted by Labor) and an Infrastructure Fund of a similar amount (also Ratted by Labor).
Try an unemployment rate of 4.2% when Labor took over (also ratted by Labor) which now stands at 5.7% and growing - that's a 35% increase in just over 6 years.
Try a reduction in illegal immigration to a virtual zero - since ratted by Labor - with over1,000 a week now arriving and 1,000s drowned.
Try to think for yourself Tristan. It doesn't hurt.
08 Aug 2013 8:00:54pm
Yes, Labor certainly could win the election if they had a very good campaign and the coalition had a bad campaign. No-one's saying that isn't the case. The bookie's odds simply mean that there is a greater chance (in the bookie's calculation) that the coalition will pick up the two additional seats necessary to form a majority in the lower house in their own right and a seat by seat breakdown of likely voting patterns does support their calculations. Providing that the coalition doesn't lose more seats to Labor than it gains from Labor (and at this stage it seems unlikely that it will- seats lost in Qld will be made up by seats gained in the rest of the country) then the coalition will get a majority in the House just from the seats that polling shows it will gain from the independents.
Forrest Gardener:
09 Aug 2013 8:17:34am
Bookies don't work quite like that Reaver. You are thinking of insurers.
Bookies adjust the odds depending on trends in the betting, not on any analysis of the outcome.
08 Aug 2013 8:27:40pm
What were the odds for Hewson and Romney. How hard would it be for a wealthy Tory to place some big bets to skew the odds?
Forrest Gardener:
09 Aug 2013 8:18:07am
Bravo KB. Comedy gold!
News Flash:
08 Aug 2013 9:43:06pm
You've heard it here - first!!!!
There is an agreement between Kevin Rudd and Peter Beattie:
If Kevin Rudd loses the next election he would resign from parliament and Rudd will support Peter Beattie as the Leader of Labor Opposition.
Rudd hates all other senior Labor MPs (including Bill Shorten) to trust them with Labor readership. This way he will at least have another Queenslander as Labor leader. Only such agreement would make any sense for Beattie accepting such unrewarding task.
The more you think about it, the more you'll realize that I am right!!!!
08 Aug 2013 10:18:06pm
Labor by 4 seat!
08 Aug 2013 10:46:49pm
Stephen Labors odds are only good if they win and the bookies like me don't think they will win but you can always put your house on them they are very good odds in a 2 horse race have a punt.
09 Aug 2013 7:12:18am
The odds of the economy tanking with debt have also Shortened.
Richard Johns:
09 Aug 2013 9:57:52am
Maynard, I am no Keynes but you seem to be confused, as all the colaition members are, about the difference between the Australian Government's budget and the Australian economy.
They are not the same.
If the government had not acted by injecting money into the economy - cheap money as it happens due to low interest rates - then we would have had huge unemployment that would take many years to correct. That would have been a social disaster for Australia, but it seems to be what the Coalition is arguing for.
This is not opinion by the way. The last few years have given the best examples of how to deal and not deal with recessions for the last eighty years. Those who followed Australia's approach did significantly better than those who didn't.
09 Aug 2013 10:37:41am
I have read many of the replies to this article about the odds of this election and I only hope that the truth will come out that the Labor party are the ones that have made Australia a better and prosperous country and fairer place for the most disadvantaged and also have smarter, honest, and professional politicians. With the reforms that they have worked hard on and will continue for many years. History will show how did this Labor party achieve such wonderful policies for eg to name a few in health, education and the environment and were not fully understood or appreciated by our society. Some of the blame goes to its own labor party however the overwhelming criticism goes to Tony Abbott and his party and the unbalanced and unfair coverage of an unhealthy press To me its about what values a Govt. believes it can manage at any given time. Yes I would agree that there are also some good politicians in every party.
I would like to congratulate the postings of Tristan and Lee of Brisbane and others and I urge all readers to take note of these words of truth.
As for the likes of Danny,Patarus,Mark James,Pop,Gonder and then I didn't read all the other replies you seem to have a grip to bear against KR and make old comments of a man who like most of us was not perfect. However now I see and believe that KR has changed for the better and has learnt from his mistakes and lets have some good, mature and honest debates.
Even Tony Abbott appears to have learnt how to communicate more effectively and has had to refrain from his consent negativity. To me its true that Labor is the new way of politics and TA is not to be trusted in balancing sociol justice issues as he is still in it for the power and glory of winning at any cost.
Finally, lets have some respect for the position of PM no matter who or he or she is and give them a chance to talk to all of us.
09 Aug 2013 8:15:29am
Abbott says Barnett is his chosen role model. That's great for bettors to know because Barnett and Buswell (his Treasurer) have just shafted all but the two wealthiest of Western Australians and his own rich mates in the long delayed State budget, showing absolute contempt for the man on the street who trusted them on solar power pricing, on Royal Perth Hospital, transport and a host of other matters. Generations for decades to come will rue Barnett's name as they battle to pay off his 700% plus debt splurge as he goes out of his way to subsidise professional sportsmen and their millionaire management and turn a once beautiful city and beach suburbs into prison walls for the man in the street by massive multi story developments locking them away from water views.
Good luck Tony, with models like Barnett (and Buswell) you can save massively on your election campaigning.
09 Aug 2013 9:31:05am
If what you say is true and the Labor party wins in a few weeks then we are off into a world of pain where Greece and Portugal and most of Europe live.
If the majority end up being Labor voters that are so self centred and profligate with tax and debt, then they deserve the heap they will end in.
Odds? They have always been balanced between the country going broke and making money. You only have to look at the MYEFO 2012-2113 history and the net debt table at the bottom to realise Labor spends like madmen and then the Liberals come in and debt drops then labor comes back again and racks up 400bn.
And they reckon this election will be about economics! Well on this table alone you would not put another Labor government in EVER...... http://budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/myefo/html/13_appendix_d.htm
Father Oblivion:
09 Aug 2013 9:53:50am
The LNP and the ALP will always get their welded on vote, although the ALP will be losing votes to The Greens as a result of shifting ideologies (HINT - if you think you are and ALP voter, try the "Vote Compass")
In turn, that welded on vote also defines the outcomes in the safe seats.
The rest is up for grabs, and it will come down to who is the preferred Prime Minister in the polls. It will be a choice choice between policies and strategies or fair dinkum bunkum and guff. Right there is the problem faced by Abbott and Co! The "fair dinkum" and bunkum and the guff is simply preaching to the choir of those who are welded on. Those platitudes and homilies mean stuff all to the thinking voters in the middle who will decide the election.
Abbott and Hockey need to get after it if they want a chance at winning government. If they keep on keeping on they will lose on the day.
The first thing they need to do is comply with the charter of budget honesty and convince people like me they are fit and ready to run an economy facing a form slump!
Dave Williams:
09 Aug 2013 11:42:40am
I have taken an interest in the bookies prices regarding the election but haven't had time to update for recent developments.
Why? Bookmakers do a better job than anybody else. The last US election was deemed to be a close contest leading up to the vote, based on polling. Obama won comfortably just as the bookies suggested. It has been the case more often than not and allowed the media to make the lead up discussion more interesting than it would have otherwise been.
When Julia Gillard was PM the overall markets had the Coalition with 98.5 seats to 48.5 [12th June] but this changed to 81.5 to 65.5 afterwards. A couple of seats to the others. This equated to a 88% to 67% for the Liberals to win. The analysis I did of a seat by seat basis before the change in leadership took placed agreed with these figures.
I'm not sure of the situation now, but clearly things have changed. In my electorate [Reid] the Liberals have gone from 3 chances of 4 in winning to slight underdogs. However I still think that it is more in favour of the Liberals winning the election than the polls suggest. Again, we'll have every poll result analysed to the n-th degree.
Why is this the case? Too many people in this country expect too much. The politicans play this game to get the vote and we end up with the mess the world is evolving into. As far as I can see, nobody is living in the 'real world', their all living in their own worlds, including the 'Liberal Party world', the 'Labor Party world'.
09 Aug 2013 2:12:48pm
Trouble with whole article - is even horses are more reliable than Pollies.
Comments for this story are closed.


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text: The British Library The British Library http://sounds.bl.uk/JISC ASR IPR STATUS LIST.xls Wassail song 1CDR0010688 (copy of C1033/13) Bob and Jacqueline Patten Collection Item notes: Roud Folk Song Index No. 209. Part of a play by the local children about Sharp's visit. Performer notes: Landlord of The Butchers Arms. Recording notes: Over-recorded at the end English folk songs and music (Somerset); Customs - Wassailing (Somerset) 1972-01-17 The grounds of The Butchers Arms, Carhampton, Somerset, England, UK English sound Tarr, Eric (singer, male) Unidentified (melodeon) Patten, Bob 44100 16 00:00:52 44100 16 00:00:52 44100 16 128 kbps 00:00:52 44100 16 192 kbps


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Province gives update on ferry service to Fogo Island and Bell Island
The Department of Transportation and Works has provided an update on the Fogo Island and Bell Island ferry services.
The Burin Peninsula RCMP is advising the public of an increase in online, telephone and mail scams.
A scam, involving people representing themselves as the Canada Revenue Agency and demanding money be paid or the police will be contacted, is continuing throughout the province.
The Burin RCMP detachment says it has received multiple calls and complaints over the past week and wish to remind the public that these actions are fraudulent.
Some recent telephone scams involve threatening taxpayers or using aggressive and forceful language to scare them into paying fictitious debt to the CRA. Victims receive a phone call from a person claiming to work for the CRA and saying that taxes are owed. The caller requests immediate payment by credit card or convinces the victims to purchase a prepaid credit card and to call back immediately with the information. The taxpayer is often threatened with court charges, jail or deportation.
To help identify possible scams, the RCMP has provided guidelines online at http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/nwsrm/lrts/2015/l150610-eng.html
It says the CRA never requests prepaid credit cards; never asks for information about your passport, health card, or driver's licence; never shares your taxpayer information with another person, unless you have provided the appropriate authorization; and never leaves personal information on your answering machine or asks you to leave a message containing your personal information on an answering machine.
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If you get such a call, the RCMP says you should hang up and report it to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre at www.antifraudcentre-centreantifraude.ca or toll free at 1-888-495-8501.


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Overview Edit
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Community Walking Trip- Park Hill to Union Station
Northeast Transportation Connections
Saturday, September 6, 2014 from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM (MST)
Who's Going
San Francisco, California
London, United Kingdom
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Community Walking Trip- Park Hill to Union Station
- Starting at the Adagio Bakery (23rd Ave & Dexter St) in Park Hill we will head downtown to Union Station.
- Approximately a 5 mile walk.
- Finishing on the RTD BUS #20 back to our starting location.
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The Northeast Transportation Connections is partnering with Walk2Connect to introduce Community Walking Trips to residents of Park Hill, NW Aurora, Stapleton and E Montclair. Trips will connect residents via walking to or from local areas of interest while actually riding an RTD bus or rail line on the return journey of the trip. These trips will include small trainings on how to use public transit, we will discuss interests around the neighborhood and the best practices on walking safety. We will also make time for discussion on unique neighborhood history and culture. Our hope is that these facilitated walking trips will heighten opportunities, interest and motivation to sustain on-foot and public transit travel while using local maps as a guide – for practical and recreational use.
Spots are limited so sign up before it's too late!
More info at NEtransportation.org/walks
When & Where
Adagio Bakery
4628 E 23rd Ave
Saturday, September 6, 2014 from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM (MST)
Add to my calendar


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User talk:Christopher 57
| This is the talk page for User:Christopher 57. Please leave a message.
Always sign off your messages using four tildes (~~~~ ) to automatically add your signature.
Hi, welcome to Grand Theft Wiki! Thanks for your edit to the User:Christopher 57 page.
Please leave a message on my talk page if I can help with anything! -- Masterpogihaha (Talk) 11:27, August 2, 2010


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- nonpareils (optional)
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- Sodium2 mg(0%)
- Polyunsaturated Fat0 g
- Fiber0 g(0%)
- Monounsaturated Fat0 g
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Montreal: Canadian police say they have foiled a plot that would have seen an armed duo carry out a shooting spree in Halifax on Valentine's Day before killing themselves.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police in Nova Scotia said a 19-year-old man from the rural town of Timberlea had plotted with a 23-year-old woman from the US city of Geneva, Illinois to open fire somewhere in Halifax on Saturday. Two others were also allegedly involved.
It was not thought to be terror related.
They "had access to firearms and it was their intention to go to a public venue in the Halifax region on February 14th with a goal of opening fire to kill citizens, and then themselves," the RCMP said in a statement.
Police said the Timberlea man was found dead in a home early Friday.
The American woman was arrested shortly after - along with a 20-year-old man - without incident at the Halifax Stanfield International Airport.
Police arrested a fourth suspect, a 17-year-old boy from Cole Harbour, at a home later on Friday.
"It's a group of individuals that were of the same ... mind to commit a heinous event and then take their own lives," RCMP Assistant Commissioner Brian Brennan told a news conference.
Brennan told CTV News that the plot was not considered to be related to terrorism.
Police said they first received word of a "potential significant weapons-related threat" on Thursday morning.
The region's Serious Incident Response Team was investigating the death of the Timberlea man.
All three suspects were being held in police custody.