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Statistically-Based Validation of Computer Simulation Models in Traffic Operations and Management
Statistically-Based Validation of Computer Simulation Models in Traffic Operations and Management
Jerome Sacks*
National Institute of Statistical Sciences and Duke University
Nagui M. Rouphail
North Carolina State University
Byungkyu (Brian) Park
University of Virginia
Piyushimita (Vonu) Thakuriah
University of Illinois at Chicago
The process of model validation is crucial for the use of computer simulation models in transportation policy, planning, and operations. This article lays out obstacles and issues involved in performing a validation. We describe a general process that emphasizes five essential ingredients for validation: context, data, uncertainty, feedback, and prediction. We use a test bed to generate specific (and general) questions as well as to give concrete form to answers and to the methods used in providing them.
The traffic simulation model CORSIM serves as the test bed; we apply it to assess signal-timing plans on a street network of Chicago. The validation process applied in the test bed demonstrates how well CORSIM can reproduce field conditions, identifies flaws in the model, and shows how well CORSIM predicts performance under new (untried) signal conditions. We find that CORSIM, though imperfect, is effective with some restrictions in evaluating signal plans on urban networks.
The validation of computer simulation models is a crucial element in assessing their value in transportation policy, planning, and operational decisionmaking. Often discussed and sometimes informally practiced, the process is conceptually straightforward. Data representing both the input and the output of the model are collected, the model is run with that input, and the output is compared to field data. In reality, complications abound: field data may be expensive, scarce, or noisy; the model may be so complex that only a few runs are possible; and uncertainty enters the process at every turn. Even though it is inherently a statistical issue, model validation lacks a unifying statistical framework.
The need to develop such a framework is compelling, even urgent. The use of computer models by transportation engineers and planners is growing. Costs of poor decisions are escalating, and increasing computing power, for both computation and data collection, is magnifying the scale of the issues. The opportunity is as great as the need. Advances in statistical techniques for incorporating multiple types of information, while managing the multiple uncertainties, enable progress in quantifying validation (Berliner et al. 1999; Lynn et al. 1998).
The purpose of this paper is to set out key issues faced in the validation of transportation models and to advance a research effort to address these issues. Many of the issues we describe are common to models and modelers in all areas of science and engineering:
- give explicit meaning to validation in particular contexts
- acquire relevant data
- quantify uncertainties
- provide feedback to model use and development
- predict performance under new (untried) conditions
While easily outlined, the challenge is to meet these issues. This can be achieved by describing and developing approaches and methods that are effective and can be implemented. That there are many obstacles to surmount is no surprise to those who have attempted exacting validations. However, there are tools capable of overcoming the impediments.
In order to make our points clear, we will use a test bed that generates the questions a validation must address and, at the same time, accommodates analyses that respond to the main issues. The test bed we use is the microscopic simulator CORSIM in an application to the assessment and selection of signal timing plans on an important street network in Chicago, Illinois.
Several research issues emerge from this investigation, indicating the following needs:
- to formulate evaluation functions that capture transportation needs and are amenable to either direct or indirect observation in the field
- to measure and assess the impact of data quality on evaluation functions and performance
- to develop methods for treating a variety of problems connected with the analysis of uncertainties, especially predictions
The general conclusion from the test bed is that, despite imperfections, CORSIM is effective as a model for evaluating signal plans on urban street networks under some restrictions. The basis of the statement is the validity of CORSIM prediction of performance under new conditions assessed by a second data collection, the gold standard of validation. The simplicity of the conclusion belies the complexity of the process, particularly evident in the feedback step of tuning the model to the specific network using an initial data collection.
We introduce the test bed example and simulator in the second section, along with the specific evaluation functions we use. Acquisition of data and the two field collections are described in the third section. Estimation of the input to the model is described in the fourth section. The fifth section covers the range of validation questions and the analyses relevant to them, including tuning, based on the initial data collection. The next section discusses the prediction of performance under new conditions and the subsequent validation. Questions about uncertainty are discussed in the following section, and our conclusions appear in the final section.
CORSIM is a computer simulation model of street and highway traffic. It is the quasi-official platform used by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) to gauge traffic behavior and compare competing strategies for signal control before implementing them in the field (USDOT FHWA 1996).1 For CORSIM to fulfill this purpose, two crucial questions must be addressed.
- How well does CORSIM reproduce field conditions?
- Can CORSIM be trusted to represent reality under new, untried conditions, such as revised signal timing plans?
The localized and complex behavior that signal plans induce on urban street networks makes answering these two questions a challenge. Flows on these networks, even on small sub-networks, are highly complex. They include a variety of vehicles, pedestrian-vehicle interactions, and driver behavior, as well as an assortment of network conditions, such as different lane arrangements, stop signs, parking lots, and one-way streets. Moreover, the traffic demands on the network are highly variable, changing month to month, day to day, hour to hour, and even minute to minute. Equally varied are the many movements (legal and otherwise) of vehicles and pedestrians.
Since no simulator can realistically capture behavior exactly, formulating appropriate performance measures or evaluation functions is fundamental to the validation process. Variability, inherent in real traffic and also present in the computer model, compounds matters. Choices of performance measures introduce subjective elements and, thereby, potential sources of contention in assessment of the computer model.
To focus the issues, we undertook a case study with the cooperation of the Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT) with the ultimate goal of optimizing the signal plans for a network more extensive than the one here. The test bed for the study is the network depicted in figure 1. The internal network (Orleans to LaSalle; Ontario to Grand) in figure 1 is the key part of a planned Real-Time Traffic Adaptive Control System (RT-TRACS) study to be carried out in the future. A different network was studied earlier (Park et al. 2001) and helped guide some of the decisions made in the current test bed.
Traffic in the network depicted in figure 1 flows generally south and east during the morning peak and north and west in the evening peak. This demand pattern is accommodated by a series of high-capacity, one-way arterials such as Ohio (eastbound), Ontario (westbound), Dearborn (northbound) and Clark and Wells (southbound), in addition to LaSalle (north- and southbound). For reference purposes, the Chicago central business district (CBD) is located southeast of the network.
CORSIM Characteristics and Inputs
CORSIM is a microscopic and stochastic simulator. It represents single vehicles entering the road network at random times moving (randomly) second-by-second according to local interaction rules that describe governing phenomena such as car-following logic (rules for maintaining safe distances between cars), lane changing, response to traffic control devices, and turning at intersections according to prescribed probabilities. CORSIM can handle networks of up to 500 nodes and 1,000 links containing up to 20,000 vehicles at one time. The figure 1 network has 112 1-way links, 30 signalized intersections, and about 38,000 vehicles moving through it in 1 hour. Streets are modeled as directed links with intersections as nodes.
There are a variety of inputs or specifications that must be made, either directly or by default values provided in CORSIM. Input that must be made directly include the following.
- specification of the network via fixed inputs describing the geometry, such as distance between intersections, number of traffic lanes, and length of turn pockets; the placement of stop signs, bus stops, schedules, and routes; and parking conditions
- probability distributions of interarrival times governing the generation of vehicles at each entry node of the network; the choices in CORSIM of arrival-time distributions are limited, in essence, to Gamma (Erlang) densities, λ = average interarrival time or 1/λ is the expected number of vehicles arriving in 1 second; k determines the shape of the
Gamma density.
assumed independent (vehicle-to-vehicle, node-to-node) but allowed to be different for each entry node
- vehicle mix (auto or truck) through independent Bernoulli trials with probabilities that can differ from entry node to entry node
- probability distributions of turning movements, assumed to be independent, vehicle-to-vehicle and link-to-link and different from link-to-link
CORSIM provides several default inputs. The chief inputs relate to driver characteristics, such as car-following behavior (how closely drivers follow other vehicles), left turn "jumpers" (drivers who "jump the gun" ahead of oncoming traffic), acceptance of gaps between vehicles (before making turns or lane changes), and lane-changing maneuvers. For example, gap acceptance is governed by a discrete distribution with 10 mass points. The default distribution can be accepted or altered. Other inputs with default distributions that can be altered are dwell times for buses, effects of pedestrians on turning vehicles, and short-term incidents, such as an illegally parked delivery truck.
Although altering the default distributions through data use is possible in some cases, data that would better determine driver characteristics are too elusive. For the test bed study, we assumed no pedestrian traffic (normally light on this network) and no incidents.
Signal settings are direct inputs. We single them out as controllable factors since altering these inputs to produce improved traffic flow drives the study. Signal settings consist of a cycle common to all signals, green times for movements at each intersection, and offsets (time differences between beginnings of cycles at intersections).
For validation, the signal plan will be the one in the field. For finding optimal fixed-time signal-timing plans2 or for comparing alternative plans, the signal parameters will necessarily be manipulated. Comparisons are best done through the simulator since field experiments are not feasible. Relying on CORSIM to select an alternative to an in-place plan then raises our earlier-posed questions.
CORSIM Output
CORSIM comes equipped with an animation package (TRAFVU) allowing visualization of traffic movements, valuable when exploring the characteristics of the model and detecting problems and flaws. In addition to the visual output, CORSIM provides aggregated (over selected time intervals, such as the signal cycle) numerical output for each link. The numerical outputs include the following.
- throughput (the number of vehicles discharged on each link)
- average link travel time
- link queue time (the sum over vehicles of the times, in minutes, during which the vehicles are stationary, or nearly so)
- link stop-time (sum over vehicles of stationary time)
- maximum queue length (on each lane in the link over the simulation time)
- link delays (simulated travel time minus free-flow travel time, summed over all vehicles discharging the link)
Most of these statistics can be attached to movements or lane levels within each link, but we do not do so. We will take CORSIM performance measures from this output.
One hour of simulation for the test bed network takes about 40 seconds on a Pentium III-850 MHz PC. During this time, approximately 38,000 vehicles are processed through the network. While each run is quick, the need for many runs to deal with the substantial variability induced by the stochastic assumptions lengthens experimental time considerably. A detailed uncertainty analysis greatly increases computational demands. An advanced computing environment (for example, distributing the simulations across a network of machines) could, of course, substantially reduce computing time.
A crucial element in validation is designing and carrying out data collection both for estimating input to the model and for comparing model output with field data. The challenge lies in managing costs while obtaining useful data relevant to both estimation and validation.
For our test bed example, initial field data for the network were collected on a single day (Thursday, May 25, 2000) for three hours in the morning (7:00 am to 10:00 am) and three hours in the afternoon (3:30 pm to 6:30 pm). The processing of the data and the analyses were limited to the three one-hour periods, 8 am to 9 am, 4 pm to 5 pm, and 5 pm to 6 pm. This covered the peak periods as well as a "shoulder" period.
Acquiring data for the input to CORSIM is a formidable task. Input such as driver characteristics is extremely difficult to gather, and in the test bed example we relied mostly on CORSIM default values. There were very few pedestrians, and they had no discernible effect on traffic, leading us to ignore the pedestrian input. Incidents were not included, despite the fact that there were illegally parked vehicles that did affect traffic flow. Because illegal parking was an endemic condition, we coded the network to account for its effect. Other parameters, such as free-flow speed, were selected on the basis of posted speed limits. Signal timing plans and bus routes and stations were collected directly in the field and entered into CORSIM.
Traffic volume data were collected manually by observers counting vehicles and by video recording. Human observation is notoriously unreliable, but cost considerations did not allow video coverage of the full network. However, the video information, covering all the links of the internal network of figure 1, was rich enough to allow adjustment of the observers counts that determined the flow rate of vehicles at entry nodes of the network. On the other hand, turning movements outside the internal network could neither be confirmed nor reliably adjusted by video information. Extracting the video information took a considerable investment of time and personnel, rivaling the cost of acquiring the raw video data.
Supplemental validation data were collected on a similar schedule on September 27, 2000. These were extracted primarily from video. The purpose was to answer our second question, if CORSIM accurately represents reality under new conditions, by analyzing its effectiveness of CORSIM in predicting traffic behavior under the September conditions.
It is most convenient to collect data for validation while collecting data for inputs. The use of the same or closely related data for both input and validation is an issue rarely confronted. The conventional wisdom says that such dual-use of the data is forbidden. In fact, it can be done but the attachment of computable uncertainties, essential to producing reliable results, is not straightforward. This issue is under study by a research team at the National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS) and Duke University. A Bayesian approach based on Bayarri and Berger (1999) holds promise for producing methodology to treat the issue.
A problem as yet not addressed is assessing the impact of data of inferior quality. The problem is complicated by the need to specify the brunt of the impact; to quantify scenarios of alternative collections of data; and to design, execute, and analyze computational experiments to measure the consequences, or sensitivities, of model output to wrong data input, including incorrect signal settings or drifts in signal timing. This issue is not unique to transportation studies and research; it permeates virtually all sciences.
The direct, fixed input required for CORSIM to run, including signal timing plans for each of the three one-hour periods, was obtained from the field and entered into CORSIM. The direct input requiring estimation was treated as follows.
- Vehicle mix at each entry node was estimated from one-hour (human-observer) counts for autos and trucks.
- Turning probabilities (left turn, right turn, through) at each intersection were estimated from one-hour video counts (where available) and from human-observer counts at other intersections.
- Inter-arrival rates (see equation 1) were estimated with the assumption that k = 1. The λ for each entry node and each of the 3 one-hour time periods was estimated as the total number of vehicles entering the (entry) link divided by 3,600.
Some λs were later adjusted to reduce discrepancies between downstream counts generated by CORSIM and those observed by video; the discrepancies were believed to be due to inaccuracy of human-observer counts and the effects of parking lots. Turning movements were left at their field estimates. Measuring the ultimate effect on uncertainty of these modifications is an issue that remains to be explored.
Validation Process
Validation without purpose has little utility. For example, our interest in CORSIM here is its value in assessing and producing good time-of-day signal plans. But, CORSIM could also be used to evaluate traffic operations under disruptions, such as a bridge closing, or to changes in the network, such as strict enforcement of parking laws or truck restrictions. A more subtle use could be in measuring the impact of driver decisions when faced with a network modification. Some objectives may only reflect changes in the network; others may also implicate induced changes in demand.
Navigating through this variety of issues requires multiple tools. For example, visualization and expert opinion give an overall assessment of whether the model output matches reality in a qualitative but highly subjective way. When video data are placed next to computer animations, discrepancies (and similarities) can be seen directly, particularly if viewers are experts familiar with the network and its characteristics.
However, the stochastic nature of CORSIM and of real traffic requires more than informal visualization. Questions remain, such as which random animation should be used to compare with the real traffic and is the single day of traffic recorded by video typical. More stringent comparisons based on a second tool, statistical analysis, become crucial in reducing the subjectivity, guiding the visualization through choices of animation, and pointing to model flaws responsible for aberrant behavior. The challenge is then to provide statistical analyses appropriate to the desired ends.
There can be many competing analyses, one for each evaluation criterion as defined in the following section. Treating the multiplicity of comparisons in a coherent way is often disregarded. Is the model flawed if it produces a poor match to reality at only one (five?) of one hundred links? Added complications come from comparisons based on evaluations of corridor and system characteristics as well as those of individual links.
Thus, the initial task is to select evaluation criteria. Comparison of the field and model through selected evaluation functions in the specific application of CORSIM to the network of figure 1 will touch on the concerns and issues raised.
Evaluation Functions
Selecting an evaluation function φ is crucial and sometimes complicated by competing practical and theoretical considerations. First, is φ relevant to the purpose? Choosing among many φs relevant is sometimes eased by requiring feasibility in both calculating model output for φ and collecting field data for calculating corresponding field value(s) of φ.
In our test bed example, a good criterion for judging a signal-timing plan may be average link travel time, complicated to obtain in CORSIM and costly to obtain in the field. The tactic of using probe vehicles, while possible in principle, is inhibited by the cost of using large numbers of vehicles and the need to account for the substantial variability connected with the use of probes. Computing vehicles travel time from video is highly labor-intensive; useful, automatic area-wide detection methods, such as Mobilizer (Lall et al. 1994), are neither widely available nor fully adequate.
The evaluation function φ is likely to have versions at multiple time scales and at different levels of spatial aggregation. For example, total queue-time per cycle per link could be aggregated over cycles and over links to form evaluations based on behavior over selected corridors, over the whole system, and over distinct time periods. The choice of levels of space-time resolution adds to the determination of relevance and can be complicated by questions of feasibility.
Statistical analyses of the φs must treat the variability arising from the intrinsic stochastic structure of simulators such as CORSIM.3 However, field variability is also consequential, and that cannot be so readily captured without elaborate and costly field-data collection. This is a confounding issue, partly addressed below.
Travel times are very hard to obtain in the field. Stop time per vehicle can be calculated for each link covered by video. Queue length per cycle can also be calculated, but queue time is very difficult to obtain in the field though a standard part of CORSIM output.
We chose stop time (stopped delay) on approaches to intersections as the primary evaluation function. It has been the typical measure by which intersection level of service (LOS) is evaluated (TRB 1994). The comparative ease of collecting stop time data from the video strongly affected our choice, reinforced by the fact that other criteria such as throughput, delay, travel time, and queue length are all highly correlated with stop time.4 In addition, we believe that drivers on urban street networks are particularly sensitive to stop time, spurring traffic managers to seek its reduction. In fact, the Highway Capacity Manuals selection of stopped delay for LOS designation is meant to reflect the users perception of the intersections quality of service. We used V (the number of vehicles leaving an intersection, particularly exit nodes) as an auxiliary evaluation function. V is readily calculated from video and is also needed to calculate stop time per vehicle discharged (STV) at a link. At approach a,
where V0 is the count of vehicles that do not stop on a, while Vs is the count of vehicles that do stop on a. This raises the question of whether STV is an adequate reflection of the characteristics of the network (and signal plan) compared to the pair
We will see that these quantities provide a sharper understanding of the comparison between CORSIM and the field.
STV or STVS for aggregations of approaches (routes or corridors) is very difficult to obtain, requiring the tracking of individual vehicles. But some concept of performance on aggregation could be important. For example, a long delay on one link may be compensated by a short delay on the next link downstream, leaving the corridor and the system as a whole unaffected. By summing over the individual links forming a corridor, we create a "pseudo stop time" for the corridor. This will be close to a real stop time, provided vehicles turning off of or on to the corridor exhibit little or no difference from those traveling straight through. However, the value of such "pseudo stop times" is unclear, and here we only deal with individual links and approaches.
Multiplicity questions begin with the selection of links or approaches for comparison. We selected links on corridors that contained the heaviest traffic during the main peak period directions, east and south in the morning and west and north in the evening. A full treatment of multiplicity questions will not be presented here.
Tuning and calibrating a model are general terms, often used interchangeably, sometimes yielding confusion. In the previous major section, we treated estimation of input to the model directly from field data. When model output data are used, either alone or with field data, to determine input parameters, the process is often called calibration. Tuning is a term commonly associated with adjusting input parameters to match model output. As in the usage of "calibration," the term tuning is frequently reserved for cases where the input parameters are unobservable or represent physical and other processes the model does not (or cannot) adequately incorporate.
The practice of tuning is not only common but often essential, especially for a long-range study of the model and its associated phenomena. Some input parameters may be neither well-specified nor capable of being estimated from the field data. One example is driver aggressiveness in our test bed. Some assumptions about input parameters may be found erroneous after viewing the data, and their modification may produce better simulations. Ultimately, the validation accompanying such tuning becomes problematic.
Two types of tuning were done in the test bed example. The first addressed the blockage of turns at two intersections and the subsequent gridlock. We altered the network by introducing sinks and sources that allowed the bypass of the blockage without affecting throughput. The second was stimulated by a substantial difference on one link (at the LaSalle/Ontario intersection in figure 1) between the field and CORSIM stop times. This difference was largely resolved by changing the free flow speed from 30 miles per hour (mph) to 20 mph. The input of 30 mph was induced by the speed limit; its revision to 20 mph is consistent with the observed (from video) speed of vehicles on the corridor (LaSalle Street).
Visual Validation
Where visualization is available, as it is with CORSIM animation and with video field data, a compelling approach to validation is visually comparing the two to see if traffic in CORSIM behaves like traffic in reality. To a great extent, this is a highly informal and subjective approach. Nonetheless, it is of great value in assessing CORSIMs capability to emulate reality as well as identifying sources of trouble or flaws in CORSIM, flaws that can sometimes be corrected by intervention in the coding.
The utility of visualization depends on the specifics of each application. What may be learned from the CORSIM example may pertain to other microsimulators but not necessarily to other computer models.
A sign of problems in an application of CORSIM is the presence, in several of the replicate simulation runs, of spillback and gridlock in situations where these do not occur in reality. Spillback will occur on networks such as in figure 1, where near saturation conditions are present during peak periods; however, recovery in the field usually takes place reasonably quickly. A difficulty with CORSIM is its apparent inability to recover readily from spillback, often resulting in gridlock. The effect on performance measures is usually to produce large outliers in a repeated set of simulations, sometimes indicated by large run-to-run variance. A histogram of outputs can identify large outliers. Following up with examination of the corresponding animations can often identify causes.
In two instances, it was apparent that the cause was an inability of CORSIM to allow driver adjustment to left (or right) turn blockage, resulting in a spillback that would never clear up.
Numerical Comparisons
Throughput Comparison
In table 1, we present test bed results on throughput for internal network. The net change indicates discrepancies showing less output in the morning and more output in the evening. This is due to the garage effect: vehicles disappear to the parking lots in the morning and reappear from them in the evening.
The means of 100 replicated CORSIM runs are close to the observed counts in table 2, except for eastbound Ohio/LaSalle in the morning and westbound Grand/Wells in the evening. The first can be explained in large part by the disappearance of vehicles in the morning into parking lots along Ohio Street, a major one-way, eastbound corridor. The second, correspondingly, can be attributed to the appearance of vehicles from parking lots on Grand during the evening. In addition, there is a high enough variability in CORSIM runs to account for a considerable part of the apparent discrepancy (see figures 2 and 3).
It would be incautious to view the similarity of real data to the model runs as evidence of the models validity. Whether these internal throughputs are good evaluation functions is unclear. They are, however, relevant to STV and STVS because they determine the denominators of those measures. Not taken into account is the tuning of the model to help match inputs to the model with the flows observed in the video. How to achieve this formally is a matter of some delicacy and is a research issue currently under investigation in a National Science Foundation sponsored research project at NISS.
Though field variability cannot be adequately captured, we produced CORSIM and field time series of throughputs to examine whether CORSIM shows a degree of variability (over time) characteristic of the field data. Figure 4 presents such time series, obtained as follows. There are 48 signal cycles during the 8 am to 9 am morning peak, and we combined throughputs over every 2 cycles, equal to 150 seconds of elapsed time in the 1-hour period. This leads to a time series at 24 time points. CORSIM was run 100 times, and the variation of each time series was computed as
where Y(t) represents throughput during time interval t. We selected the representative CORSIM time series variation as the median of the 100 variations.
CORSIM variability, as shown in figure 4 (as well as on the link southbound LaSalle at Ohio), is close to that of the field. Indeed, the variation of the field series is 116 and is at the 30th percentile of the CORSIM distribution, as shown in figure 5.
Stop Time Comparisons
The distribution of stop time at each approach has some probability at zero (the proportion of vehicles that do not stop); this is singled out in the first part of table 3. Characteristics of the conditional distribution of stop time (given that a vehicle stops) are given in table 4. There are definite discrepancies on southbound LaSalle at Ohio during the morning, where CORSIM generates fewer stops but longer stop times for its stopped vehicles. On eastbound Ohio at LaSalle, a similar (though somewhat reduced) discrepancy is apparent. While there appear to be differences on some of the other approaches, none appear very significant. For example, CORSIM stops fewer vehicles on northbound LaSalle at Ontario in the 5 pm to 6 pm period, but the stop times are close.
These differences call for an explanation. Examination of video and CORSIM animation exposes the key cause: CORSIM does not fully reflect driver behavior. In particular, lane utilization in CORSIM is not consistent with lane utilization in the field. On some links, vehicles in the field more often join long queues where they are briefly stopped. These vehicles typically do not appear in CORSIM simulation as having stopped. This accounts for smaller STVS in the field than in CORSIM. So, even though CORSIM does not fully reflect the field, the key measure of how long truly stopped vehicles are delayed appears to match what is seen in the field quite reasonably.
The most compelling form of validation is through confirmation by predictions in new circumstances. In the test bed example, a plan, different from the one in the field in May, was put in place in September 2000. Under these new circumstances (a new signal plan) predictions were to be made and data collection designed for September 27, 2000, a day expected to be similar to the date of the first data collection, May 25, 2000.
The simulators performance prediction requires specification of the input expected at the time of the new data collection. Believing that the conditions in the field for the September data collection would be the same as in May, we ran CORSIM with the May input, except for signals.
After the data were collected in September, we compared the results, first for throughput (table 5) on several key links. Except for the 13% disparity on southbound LaSalle, the throughputs were close. Whether or not the disparity in demand on southbound LaSalle mattered awaited further analysis of stop time. The predictions of September stop time performance with the May input are in tables 6 and 7 (see also figures 6 and 7). Except for northbound Orleans to the freeway, the STVSs are reasonably close. For the reasons discussed earlier, we have several disparities on stop rates.
To clarify these matters, we first checked the effect of change in demand on southbound LaSalle during the morning peak. We decreased the input demand there by 10%, reran CORSIM 100 times, and obtained essentially no change in output. The stop rate on southbound LaSalle at Ohio went from 30.3% to 30.9%, while STVS went from 22.0 to 22.3 seconds per vehicle (sec/veh).
Next we explored the disparity on northbound Orleans at the freeway in the afternoon peak and observed, through video, that drivers effectively used green time of 20 seconds instead of the displayed green time of 16 seconds. Introducing this modification changed stop rates from 74% to 65%, and average STVS changed from 51.9 to 40.8 sec/veh with a standard deviation of 6.8. The difference between 31.4 (the field STVS) and CORSIMs average of 40.8 is neither statistically significant (within 2 standard deviations) nor practically significant (same level of service; see table 9). Nonetheless, we examined the northbound Orleans link more carefully. We noted that CORSIM has difficulty dealing with storage of vehicles on short, congested links just downstream of a wide intersection, exactly the characteristics of northbound Orleans at the freeway (the intersection at Ohio is 60 feet; the entire link is 240 feet; and the link is highly congested). We could have brought the CORSIM predictions more closely in line with the numbers in the field by altering the length of the link, but we regarded such tuning as potentially misleading.
A highly informative evaluation function of CORSIM is the change in CORSIM predictions, Δ CORSIM (September STVS - May STVS), compared to the corresponding change in the field values, Δ Field. Even though the CORSIM predictions were not always accurate, the Δs are close and of the same sign (table 8). This is particularly important for comparing the performance of competing signal plans: predictions of improvements (in two links), no change (in two links), and degradation (on one link) in CORSIM jibes with the changes in reality.
A more exacting treatment of validation requires closer attention to the following.
- uncertainties inherent to the simulator as well as from parameter estimates used to define input distributions
- multiplicity questions arising from the use of multiple evaluation functions (for example, the multiple link/approaches in tables 1 and 2)
The first item can be addressed through a Bayesian analysis. For instance, in the test bed example, the uncertainty question can be dealt with by specifying prior distributions for the λs in equation (1) as well as for the probabilities p of turning movements. Posterior distributions of λ,p can then be computed given field data. Before each CORSIM run, a draw from the posteriors can be made, leading to a selection of λ,p, which then provides the needed input for the run. The resulting variability in 100 runs, for example, will then incorporate both the inherent CORSIM variability as well as the uncertainty stemming from the use of the field data in estimating λ,p.
Bayarri, Berger, and Molina (2001) are carrying out such a Bayesian analysis. Preliminary results indicate that while the variability of STVS may increase, the qualitative behavior of CORSIM remains the same. Complications in the analysis derive from the complexity of the network and its impact on computing the posterior distribution. These results will appear elsewhere.
A fuller Bayesian treatment of uncertainty of prediction, now under study, can incorporate questions of systematic bias in CORSIM predictions of reality. One aspect of such an inquiry is the potential use of a "CORSIM adjusted by bias" predictor in place of CORSIM itself.
The treatment of multiplicity requires appropriate formulation. Methods described in Westfall and Young (1992) and Williams et al. (1999), as well as False Discovery Rate approaches (Benjamini and Hochberg 1995), are not clearly applicable due to the high level of dependence among evaluation functions.
Last, we note that the effect of the uncertainties will be felt in the evaluation functions or, equivalently, through loss structures that take practical significance into account. For example, a difference of 5 seconds in stop time can be minor, but a difference of 15 seconds may be major. One starting point may be a comparison of the field and CORSIM-predicted LOS. Table 9 shows criteria for LOS based on stopped time in the 1994 Highway Capacity Manual.
We present conclusions about the validation process and the specific test bed model, CORSIM. The validation process has five key elements: context, data, uncertainty, feedback, and prediction. Context is critical. It drives the formulation of evaluation functions or performance measures that are ultimately the grounds on which validation must take place and affect interpretations of uncertainty. For example, statistically significant disparities may, in the context of an application, be practically insignificant. In addition, context and the specified evaluation functions can affect the selection or collection of data, both field and model output, to be used for evaluation. Conversely, the availability or feasibility of data collection can determine the choice of evaluation functions. These factors may then converge in the calculation of uncertainties stemming from noisy data and model imperfections. The outcome of the evaluations and the associated uncertainties points to possible flaws in the models and feedback to model adjustments that correct or, perhaps, circumvent the flaws. Ultimately, it is through prediction that validation of a model is reached.
The process we described is effective and generally applicable. Of course, implementing the particulars, done for the most part in the test bed example, will require filling in a number of gaps, most specifically in determining uncertainties but also in designing data collection, assessing the impact of data quality, and detecting flaws.
Test bed conclusions derive from the two questions we posed: Does CORSIM mirror reality when properly calibrated for field conditions? Does CORSIM adequately predict traffic performance under revised signal plans?
Comprehensive calibration of CORSIM is infeasible; there are too many parameters that can (and some that cannot) be calibrated with field data. Our approach was to focus on key input parameters, such as external traffic demands, turning proportions at intersections, and effective number of lanes (for example, due to illegal parking), using CORSIM default values for other inputs.
We found that CORSIM was effective but flawed. A major difficulty is CORSIMs propensity to turn spillback into gridlock; inadequately modeled driver behavior led to intersection blockage far too frequently. CORSIM does not accurately model lane distribution of traffic. Lane selection in reality was much more skewed than in CORSIM. CORSIM tends to stop more vehicles than indicated in the field. In reality, drivers coast to a near stop then slowly accelerate through the signal, but the behavior is much more abrupt in CORSIM.
The first of these flaws was corrected by modifying the network. The second flaw had some effect but was relatively minor. The third flaw manifested itself in disparate stop rates but did not seriously affect stopped time per vehicle stopped (STVS).
Overall, despite its shortcomings, CORSIM effectively represented field conditions. Even when the field observations lie outside the domain of the CORSIM distributions, as in figures 2 and 3, there is virtually no difference in the estimated levels of service (table 9) between the field and CORSIM, practically insignificant even if statistically significant.5
The predictability of CORSIM was assessed by applying revised (September) signal plans to the May traffic network. CORSIM estimates of STVS were reasonably close to field estimates, and the CORSIM LOSs were, for the most part, similar to those observed in the field. More importantly, CORSIM successfully tracks changes in traffic performance over time: on five links for which field data were available, two links exhibited a reduction in STVS, one link an increase, and two had no significant change; CORSIMs predictions were the same.
In summary, a candid assessment of CORSIM is that with careful calibration and tuning, CORSIM output will match field observations and be an effective predictor.
The authors are very grateful for the support and assistance of Mr. Christopher Krueger and Mr. Thomas Kaeser of the Chicago Department of Transportation. We also thank the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago for their help in the data collection. This research was sponsored in part by grants DMS-9313013 and DMS-9208758 from the National Science Foundation to the National Institute of Statistical Sciences.
Bayarri, M.J. and J.O. Berger. 1999. Quantifying Surprise in the Data and Model Verification. Bayesian Statistics 6. London, England: Oxford University Press.
Bayarri, M.J., J.O. Berger, and G. Molina. 2001. Fast Simulators for Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Sensitivity Analysis and Model Output.
Benjamini, Y. and Y. Hochberg. 1995. Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57(1):289-300.
Berliner, L.M., J.A. Royle, C.K. Wikle, and R.F. Milliff. 1999. Bayesian Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Bayesian Statistics 6. London, England: Oxford University Press.
Lall, B., K. Dermer, and R. Nasburg. 1994. Vehicle Tracking in Video Image: New Technology for Traffic Data Collection, in Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Highway Capacity, Sydney, Australia, 365-83.
Lynn, N., N. Singpurwalla, and A. Smith. 1998. Bayesian Assessment of Network Reliability. SIAM Review 40:202-27.
Park, B., N. Rouphail, J. Hochanadel, and J. Sacks. 2001. Evaluating the Reliability of TRANSYT-7F Optimization Schemes. Journal of Transportation Engineering 127(4):319-26.
Transportation Research Board (TRB). 1994. Highway Capacity Manual. Washington, DC: National Research Council.
U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). 1996. CORSIM User Manual. Washington, DC.
Westfall, P.H. and S. Young. 1992. Resampling-Based Multiple Testing. New York, NY: Wiley-Interscience.
Williams, V.S.L., L.V. Jones, and J.W. Tukey. 1999. Controlling Error in Multiple Comparisons, with Examples from State-to-State Differences in Educational Achievement. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 24(1):42-69.
Address for Correspondence and End Notes
Jerome Sacks, National Institute of Statistical Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006. Email: firstname.lastname@example.com.
1 CORSIM version 4.32 is used in this paper.
2 Adaptive plans are under consideration as part of the RT-TRACS program and require extensive sensor capabilities to capture dynamic traffic conditions; models accommodating such plans are themselves subject to validation study.
3 Deterministic models will not have intrinsic randomness but will be exposed to variability either in assumptions about input parameters or from data used to estimate input parameters.
4 Rejection of delay was also affected by CORSIM calculations that fail to include vehicles left in the system at the end of the one-hour simulation period, potentially resulting in misleading numbers under congested conditions.
5 The CORSIM distribution does not reflect the additional uncertainty induced by the field data estimates of model input parameters. Therefore, statistical significance here is overstated.


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Crude oil and gasoline futures fell more than 2 per cent on Friday after Washington issued a waiver allowing foreign tankers to bring fuel to the East Coast from US ports, holding out some promise of relief from supply disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy.
Brent crude fell for a fifth day and posted a third consecutive weekly loss as the dollar strengthened on support from a better-than-expected US October jobs report and Bank of Japan worries about the Japanese economy.
Gasoline futures slumped as oil tankers and pipelines supplying New Jersey and the New York Harbor - the delivery point for the US futures contract - restored more operations that had been affected by Sandy.
Prices felt pressure when the US government temporarily waived Jones Act restrictions on tankers carrying fuel from the Gulf Coast refining hub to the storm-ravaged Northeast, increasing the available fleet of tankers to bring fuel.
"I think economic uncertainty and next week's (US) elections are weighing on oil prices. You also have the statement that the Jones Act is going to be waived for a week, suggesting some supplies are going to return," said analyst Gene McGillian at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
The waiver allows foreign tankers to carry fuel to the Northeast from other US ports, which the Jones Act normally limits to US-flagged ships. Spot gasoline prices in the Gulf Coast jumped after the waiver was granted on expectations fuel would begin to move to the East Coast.
Brent December crude fell $US2.49 to settle at $US105.68 a barrel, the lowest settlement since early August. Brent posted a 3.5 per cent weekly loss.
US December crude fell $US2.23 to settle at $US84.86 a barrel, the lowest settlement since early July. It also posted a third consecutive weekly decline, falling 1.6 per cent.
US RBOB gasoline futures for December delivery dropped 6 cents to settle at $US2.5736 a gallon.
US December heating oil retreated 8.58 cents to settle at $US2.9474 a gallon, pushing below both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, technical levels closely monitored by chart-watching traders and analysts.
In Japan, the third-largest economy, some members of the central bank warned a recession could not be ruled out given recent weakness in industrial production.
"It's the dollar strength, after the Bank of Japan warning that Japan may be slipping into recession," said Richard Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist at iitrader.com in Chicago. "It's a currency play."
Downbeat euro zone data, showing manufacturing shrank for a 15th month running in October as output and new orders fell, added to the bearish outlook.
Figures showing that weak economic growth, high prices and improving vehicle fuel efficiency had pushed down consumption of gasoline and diesel in most of Western Europe over the summer also weighed.

subset: commoncrawl


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Yup, worked just fine. Now I am trying to figure out how to copy the computer backup I made to my Mac to restore :P
Might just be me but also every time I try to open iTunes Store on my iPhone 5 it crashes.
I'm not a developer and I've never installed an iOS beta version, so I have a few questions...
1. If I find an .ipsw of the IOS 7 GM and i download it on my PC, could I install it through shift+plus restore even though I'm not a developer?
2. How would I update my iOS 7 from GM to the full version when it's released on the September 18th? Can I download the update directly from my iPhone 5 or would I have to do it through iTunes?
I think those are all for now, thanks!
Oh, ok, thanks!
A couple of more questions, since I'm not a developer, would I have any complications when/while installing it?
Is there anything else I'd new to do besides that to install it?
I know you said GM is the full version, but could I still be able to update to the real full version, not the GM version when the full version is available on my Settings or would I have to downgrade back to 6.1.4 to be able to update to the real full version on iTunes or something?
Thank you!
So as we cant download iTunes 11.1 beta from anywhere we are able to install IOS7GM but cant sync with it. LAME APPLE! VERY LAME.
THIS is why I went to Android, its so much more friendlier than anything Apple can do. And YES its also got less bugs.
Just wait for it. IOS7.0.1 will be out within a month to fix bugs so try and tell me IOS has less bugs than Android. [email protected]
The developers that post downloads of the betas and the GM are violating the ToS with Apple and risk getting their account shut down.
I think we will see a 11.1 iTunes update a day or so before iOS7 actually gets released to the public.
As for Android it has a lot going for it. Being "friendlier" as you put it, not so sure. There are so many different devices/carriers/firmwares that have their own way of updating and doing things that it can be downright frustrating and confusing when trying to determine if your device can be updated. Fail post on every level, sorry.
As much as I hate Apple and I'm moving to Android I still have some iDevices. My daughter has my iPhone4 and I still have an iPad3 as I do like the devices when they are jailbroken but stock they are pieces of crap compared to a stock Android like the Galaxy S4.
Saying that I upgraded her iPhone4 to IOS7 today and since the Beta 1 they have come along good. it's still buggy as hell and there will be a IOS7.0.1 shortly but its nice. My daughter loves it and I think its good. Its got a few features that I jailbreak for so there are a few cydia apps not needed anymore.
The downside of IOS7 is ITS WHITE! ITS TOO BRIGHT! Wish there was a black version as the white everything is just too bright especially at night.
Going to have to wait for the jailbreak to get released before updating the iPad3 as there is absolutely no way I will loose the jailbreak for any stock IOS as it really needs to be jailbroken to be any good. I just hope it doesn't crash before the jailbreak comes out as from now on its up to the jailbreaking team. Love their work and always will. Its better than anything Apple can come up with as 95% of IOS comes from Cydia or Android. (The other 5% is things like the white everything which is just too stupid and the lack of polish)


text:
JMS on Usenet
October 2001
J. Michael Straczynski posts regularly on Usenet. This page provides quick links to his posts from October 2001, with a brief description of each. Unless otherwise stated, all messages are from rec.arts.sf.tv.babylon5.moderated.
19 October 2001
Personal Request from jms
JMS is looking for a good home for a relative's dog.
18 October 2001
Re: LOTR review up at aint it cool news (SPOILERS)
JMS takes aim at the negative review of Legend of the Rangers on Aint it Cool News.
16 October 2001
Re: ATTN JMS: Spidey 35
JMS talks about how different issues of Amazing Spider-Man fit into his planned story.
14 October 2001
Re: ATTN JMS: Delicate Creatures
Delicate Creatures is running late.
Re: Spidey on NPR
Several media outlets interviewed JMS about Issue 36 of Amazing Spider-Man.
Re: To Live and Die in Starlight Concerns
JMS addresses comment about the new Legend of the Rangers trailer.


text:
Top Apps
- Audio & Video
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- Development
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- Games
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- Security & Utilities
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RemoveReadOnly is a small add-on for Windows Explorer that adds an item to the Explorer's contextual menu to remove the "Read-only" state of a file. NOTE: this project has been migrated to CodePlex: http://www.codeplex.com/removereadonly2 weekly downloads
Path Copy Copy
An Explorer add-on that adds a contextual menu item on all files and folders allowing the user to copy the path in various formats. Idea copied from "Path Copy". NOTE: this project has been migrated to CodePlex: http://www.codeplex.com/pathcopycopy


text:
The deal
KOSÉ Seikkisei White Powder Wash 100g for $207 (rrp. $230)
- Contains coix seed, angelica root, peony root, and perilla (shiso) to provide skin with moisture
- Exfoliates skin to help remove dead skin cells containing melanin
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KOSÉ Seikkisei Lotion 200ml for $278 (rrp. $310)
- Medicated cosmetic lotion containing coix seed, angelica, and melothria to moisturise skin
- Helps prevent dullness due to dry skin
- Watery texture with a cooling sensation
KOSÉ Seikkisei Emulsion 140ml for $279 (rrp. $310)
- Inhibits melanin production and prevents freckles, dark spots and dry rough skin caused by UV rays
- Provides long-lasting hydration to skin
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KOSÉ Seikkisei Lotion Excellent 200ml for $405 (rrp. $450)
- Contains coix seed, angelica, melothria, Japanese spurflower, and bracket fungus extracts to provide moisture to skin
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KOSÉ Seikkisei Emulsion Excellent 140ml for $405 (rrp. $450)
- Contains twice the amount of coix seed, moutan bark, melothria, angelica, and elecampane, and also citrus tachibana peel and poria extracts to moisturise skin
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- Suppresses melanin production to prevent age spots and freckles from sun exposure
2 units of KOSÉ Seikkisei Emulsion 140ml for $498 (rrp. $620)
KOSÉ Seikkisei White Powder Wash 100g
KOSÉ Seikkisei White Milky Wash 140ml
KOSÉ Seikkisei Lotion 200ml
KOSÉ Seikkisei Emulsion 140ml
KOSÉ Seikkisei Lotion Excellent 200ml
KOSÉ Seikkisei Emulsion Excellent 140ml


text:
BOSTON (AP) — LeBron James refused to let another season end in Boston.
The Eastern Conference finals, and his chase of an NBA championship, are headed back to Miami for a Game 7.
James had 45 points and 15 rebounds, overwhelming the Celtics and leading the Heat to a 98-79 victory Thursday night that forced the decisive game.
Pushing away elimination right along with every defender who tried to stop him, James shot 19 of 26 from the field and finished four points shy of his playoff career-high while playing 45 minutes, not sitting down until the victory was long secured.
Dwyane Wade added 17 points for the Heat, who need a victory at home Saturday to return to the NBA finals.
Rajon Rondo had 21 points and 10 assists for Boston. Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass each scored 12 points, but Paul Pierce had only nine on 4-of-18 shooting.
In the site of some of James' biggest disappointments, the only disappointed ones Thursday were the thousands of fans who hoped to see a celebration but instead filed out of the TD Garden midway through the fourth quarter, just before the league MVP called it a night.
Miami barely won Game 2 before dropping the next three games, but this one was never in doubt. James was a one-man force on what's supposed to be a Big Three, carrying the Heat in the first half while Wade made only one of six shots.
The Celtics were hoping to complete a comeback from a 2-0 deficit, as Oklahoma City did, and advance to face the Thunder in the NBA finals. But they missed 13 of 14 3-point attempts and will have to win a second straight game in Miami to play for the title.
BET Sports News - Get the latest news and information about African-Americans in sports including weekly recaps, celebrity news and photos of your favorite Black athletes. Click here to subscribe to our newsletter.
(Photo: Jim Rogash/Getty Images)


text:
Let Them Eat Cake
A cookie-baking test
reveals whether wheat
has the desired characteristics
to make tender pastry products.
Here, food technologist Ron
Martin (left) removes test
cookies from the oven while
food technologist Charles
Gaines measures two cookies.
You can have your cake and eat bread, too—as long as you start with the right kind of wheat.
ARS scientists at the Soft Wheat Quality Research Unit in Wooster, Ohio, have found that some modern U.S. eastern soft wheats have enough dough-mixing strength to make bread, while still making fine baked goods.
They have found this with a new quick test for the gluten, or protein strength, that gives dough its mixing strength. The new test, called the lactic acid solvent retention capacity test, is actually a refinement of one developed at the Wooster lab in the 1940s. In fact, K.F. Finney, the father of ARS food technologist Patrick L. Finney, developed the original test. The latter Finney is at the Wooster lab.
Traditionally, plant breeders have believed that pastry- and bread-making qualities in wheat were in conflict. So, in the 1940s, they rejected soft wheats having a high protein strength—a trait associated with hard wheats.
Soft wheats are used for cookies,
Soft wheats are used to make pastries, cookies, crackers, and flat or hearth breads, such as pita bread. Hard wheats are used to make the everyday loaves of bread Americans are so familiar with.
While breeders no longer reject soft wheats with strong protein content, they don't breed for it either. The results are therefore mixed. The proportion of soft wheat varieties that have strong protein content rose from about 10 percent in 1944 to 60 percent in 1984 and now stands at around 25 percent.
The wheat industry recently recognized that it could create a potentially valuable new subclass of soft wheat with strong protein content—what Finney calls "multifunction soft wheat." Nabisco, Inc., went back to the ARS test for protein strength in soft wheat and refined it. The refined test is now in use.
One reason Nabisco and other manufacturers want the test is to make saltine crackers with all soft wheat. Currently, saltine manufacturers have to mix in some hard wheat flour for its high protein strength. If manufacturers could use only soft wheat flour with high protein strength, they could save money because hard wheat costs more.
It is the low cost of U.S. soft wheat that causes other countries, particularly those in the Mideast, to rely on it for their pita and other flat breads. But industry came to realize that these customers also like the performance of the U.S. eastern soft wheat more than they like hard wheat or soft wheats from other countries. In fact, the U.S. eastern soft wheat performs better than some higher priced French bread wheats.
So Finney and his colleague, Charles S. Gaines, an ARS food technologist who heads the Wooster unit, decided that it would pay in the long run to give these customers more of what they like—a stronger protein that gives the bread the taste and texture they favor.
"We don't want to make the same mistake that U.S. automakers made decades ago, in taking the market for granted. We have to take the initiative in finding ways to better satisfy our customers, or some day they may buy from other countries," Finney says.
Got Gluten?
"We're adding value to domestic and export markets in one stroke," says Gaines. "The stronger gluten content will make better crackers for the United States and better hearth breads for the Middle East. We can only hope that buyers pay a premium price for this new wheat and that farmers get their share—two big ifs," Gaines says.
The newly adapted test for soft wheat gluten strength replaces the standard Mixograph test. In the lactic acid test, flour samples are placed in 24 test tubes held in an automatic centrifuge. A 5-percent lactic acid/water solution is mixed with the flour, and then the tubes are centrifuged. Some of the water is absorbed by the flour; the rest is centrifuged out.
The samples are then weighed. The heaviest samples, those swollen with the most water, are the strongest gluten wheats.
Flour strength refers to its ability to be stirred or mixed with water and the resistance the dough has to mixing. Hard wheat flour is the hardest to mix, and that's the result of higher gluten strength. Also, when hard wheats are milled, the starch granules in the kernels often break open. The starch then absorbs more water during mixing and is exposed to yeast more rapidly. This is desired by the U.S. bread industry because most of their breads are leavened by yeast. Soft wheats break more irregularly, usually missing the starch granules, leaving them intact and causing lower water absorption.
The lactic acid test can assess 100 soft wheat samples an hour, compared to 4 for the Mixograph. As the name implies, the Mixograph stirs wheat and water together and draws a graph showing the resistance to mixing over the duration of the test. Wheats with strong gluten content will have broad bands of high spikes on the graph. In wheats with less gluten content, the bands narrow down quickly as the wheat relaxes its resistance.
Each year, the ARS lab receives about 6,000 samples of new soft wheat lines that are in the early stages of development. The samples are small because not enough seed has been produced at this early stage.
It is with these samples that the Soft Wheat Quality Laboratory conducts the new test based on the elder Finney's original test.
The Proof's in the Baking
When the wheat varieties are further along—about 3 years into development—there are enough wheat kernels to do the "Big Cookie" test. The Wooster researchers use the flour samples in a standard cookie recipe and bake them in laboratory ovens. The bigger the cookie—the more it spreads—the softer the wheat.
This test remains the industry's final standard of wheat softness. Only those microsamples of new flours that have traditional softness and show high protein strength in the lactic acid test will ever survive long enough to be baked into a cookie at the Wooster lab—or anywhere else, for that matter.
The Wooster lab is constantly searching for new soft wheats because new wheat varieties often have a maximum field life of only about 5 to 7 years. Bugs and fungi don't recognize new wheat as food right away. But by the 7th year—and often sooner—their appetite for the once-new wheat can be so well developed that it lowers crop yields to the point that it's not worth growing.—By Don Comis, Agricultural Research Service Information Staff.
This research is part of Plant, Microbial, and Insect Genetic Resources, Genomics, and Genetic Improvement, an ARS National Program (#301) described on the World Wide Web at http://www.nps.ars.usda.gov.
Charles S. Gaines and Patrick L. Finney are in the USDA-ARS Soft Wheat Quality Research Unit, 1680 Madison Ave., Wooster, OH 44691-4096; phone (330) 263-3891 [Gaines], (330) 263-3890 [Finney], fax (330) 263-3651.
"Let Them Eat Cake" was published in the March 2002 issue of Agricultural Research magazine.


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Bernstein says that U.S. companies are increasing profits and gaining market share because of changing cost structures. In the U.S., wages are stagnant, and energy costs are among the lowest in the world. Meanwhile, wages are soaring in China and other emerging markets. Until they develop hydrofracturing and other efficient energy techniques, the emerging markets will pay higher costs for fuel.
Bernstein says that the bull market can last considerably longer. He compares the current cycle to the giant rally that began in 1982. That earlier upturn occurred after a decade when the market went nowhere. Then as economic conditions improved, stocks rose. Until 1987, many investors remained wary, fearing a return to hard times. In recent years, investors have stayed on the sidelines because the economy has seemed weak. Bernstein concedes that there are many economic problems, but he says that stocks can rise as long as conditions are improving. He says that the bull market will continue until the economy is booming and confident investors are bidding stocks up to excessive levels.
Bernstein has 8% of his assets in high-yield municipal bonds. Those were pounded when Detroit's bankruptcy unnerved investors. Bernstein argues that high-yield municipals have become excessively cheap. He says that the sector could rebound and lead the bond markets in 2014. "While investors seem quite wary of municipals, municipal finances are generally getting stronger," he says.
Singer estimates future cash flows of countries, and he emphasizes areas that seem cheap. The William Blair fund currently has 47% of its assets in Europe. Singer says the stocks became cheap as investors worried that Europe could never emerge from recession. Now markets should rise as the European Central Bank continues boosting the economy by holding down interest rates. "Stock prices in Europe are low because investors believe that growth will be nonexistent, and the political environment is uncertain," Singer said.
Singer worries that bonds are too expensive. He is shorting bonds from Germany and Japan, betting that their prices will fall. This year the short positions have proved profitable because rates have risen in many countries. When rates rise, most bonds fall.
Whether or not Bernstein and Singer hit the mark again this year, the two funds could be intriguing long-term holdings because they provide diversification. Both portfolios have the capacity to climb when typical stock funds fall.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.


text:
How Scouting Prepares Youth for Emergencies
How has the Scout motto, "Be Prepared" helped you? A quick glance at Scouting Newsroom or your local news will tell you Scouts everywhere are living by those two words and using their Scout know-how to take action during some serious emergency situations.
A recent story from Real World Survivor covered just how impactful the lessons learned in Scouting are to its Scouts, especially during an emergency.
Scouting instills lifelong lessons and values in its members that encourage independence, helpfulness, and courage – qualities echoed in the Scout Oath and Scout Law. By developing these skills, Scouts have become instrumental in helping their communities recover during emergencies.
When Disaster Strikes, Scouts Are Prepared
To take "being prepared" a step further, Scouts are offered the opportunity to earn the first-aid merit badge and the Emergency Preparedness Award. Earning the award teaches Scouts to respond first, as an individual; second, as a member of a family; and third, as a member of a Scouting unit serving their community. The award allows all Scouts and Scouters to become informed, be prepared, and act promptly and appropriately in the event of emergencies. Upon completion of the award requirements, Scouts emerge with first-aid knowledge and hands-on experiences that prepare them for the unexpected.
Real World Survivor pointed to a 2012 Baylor University study finding that Scouts are 124 percent more likely to have a disaster supply kit at home than non-Scouts. What's more Scouts are also 100 percent more likely to have an emergency plan in place with their family.
Learn more about how Scouting prepares youth for the unexpected by reading the full story on Real World Survivor and find out how Scouts can earn the Emergency Preparedness Award. Has Scouting prepared you or your child for an emergency situation? Share your story in the comments below!


text:
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Encyclopaedia Metallum
Best viewed
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or higher.
Craft sound confused. While they obviously worship at the altar of Darkthrone (hold TP next to Transylvanian Hunger and you'll see what I mean), they thrown in enough death/doom elements and cheesy guitar bits to perplex even the most open-minded of BM fans. One minute it's full-speed-ahead old-school drone, the next it's broken down gutter rawk. Not that there's anything necessarily wrong with the balls-out treatment: but when said balls are withered and tiny, the attempt to be all things to all people ultimately fails to satisfy anyone at all.
Their first mistake was opening the album with "Ablaze", actually the best song on the album and one which every subsequent song fails to surpass in both quality and focus. This is the only one out of Terror Propaganda's eight songs where there is enough cohesion and drive between vocals, drums and guitars to achieve anything worthwhile. Too bad they blew their load so early: the rest of the album is one long, bumpy ride downhill.
On "The Silence Thereafter", the band slows down for a bit of mid-tempo sludge. Nothing too awful here, other then the fact that the song is perpetually on the verge of going somewhere without ever actually arriving. This is also where the deathy/Sabbath riffs start to surface and dumb everything down between bursts of otherwise decent BM. "Reaktor 4" is just hopeless, beginning in slightly Burzumesque fashion before being corrupted by a lame pastiche of styles and equally lame lyrics: "you radiation of immense power/the wind will pass it" (what?). With "Hidden Under the Skin", Craft take another stab at clean-cut BM, with acceptable results in spite of an ending that borrows heavily from Gorgoroth's "Odeleggelse og Undergang".
The four remaining songs continue in much the same hit-and-miss way. "False Orders Begone" has potential which is ultimately spoiled by the stupidly raunchy beginning; "NDP" is probably the second best song of the album, by virtue of the fact that it commits no grievous errors and has a decent amount of drive; "616" is a patchy bit of instrumental that fails to deliver; and the final title track is an ok-ish sendoff marred by a chest-thumping intro.
All in all, I was left with the impression that what Craft probably need to do is just reflect a little bit more on where they want to go and what they want to achieve. This album has many moments of promise despite its flaws, and if the band could use their influences as stepping-stones to something greater rather than as bolsters to mere mediocrity, they might develop their sound into something both unique and challenging. The current BM scene is full of great bands doing just that: with a little more effort, Craft could probably join their ranks.


text:
AMERICAN states are facing a shortage of the drugs they use to execute prisoners.
Manufacturers in Europe, and one major company in the US, are now refusing to sell the drugs required for capital punishment, The Washington Post reports.
This has put states which enforce the death penalty into a bind. Some have tried to experiment with new drugs, and the results haven't always been "successful". Dennis McGuires, who was recently executed in Ohio, took 25 torturous minutes to die.
So Virginia is now trying to revive an older method of execution - the electric chair.
At the moment, death row prisoners in Virginia are allowed to choose between lethal injection and electrocution. If they refuse to decide, lethal injection is the default method.
A new law, which has passed the state government's house of representatives and is expected to pass the senate soon, would give officials the power to use the electric chair if there aren't enough drugs, even if the prisoner chooses lethal injection.
If the law fails to pass, there could be a de facto moratorium on the death penalty in Virginia, because inmates could simply demand a method of execution that is not available, The Washington Post says.
That scenario isn't likely. Both supporters and critics of the law predict it will make it through the legislature. Then it will be up to the state's governor, Terry McAuliffe, to either sign the law or strike it down.
The electric chair was first used in the late 1800s as executions moved away from the practice of hanging. Lethal injection was introduced more recently as a (comparatively) humane alternative.


text:
Nov 23, 2012 at 7:26 am
The Grand Forks Library Board has been testing the waters with various groups to see if there is interest in participating in a task force to discuss upgrades to the book building. A recent report from consultants suggests it will take nearly 14-million dollars to bring the current facility up to today's standards. Preliminary discussions have already been held with representatives of the city…school board…park district…Altru…and UND. The library board hopes to make a presentation to the Grand Forks County Board in December. Board President Brian Schill says the goal is to form the working group in early 2013.
Talk Show Host, Operations Manager


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Integrated Device Technology (IDT) has introduced its VersaClock 5 family of programmable clock generators.
The 5P49V5901 is an in-system programmable clock generator featuring four universal output pairs capable of producing independent frequencies up to 350 MHz in various output types. The highly-integrated device consolidates four differential or eight single-ended clock generators, and can store up to four different configuration settings, helping to minimize board space and bill-of-materials. With RMS phase jitter less than 0.7 picoseconds over the full 12 kHz to 20 MHz integration range, the new device meets the jitter requirements of PCI Express Gen 1/2/3, USB 3.0, and 1G/10G Ethernet. The high-performance clock generator operates at less than 100 mW core power, helping to ease system thermal constraints, reduce operating power expenses, and maximize battery life, the vendor said.
The 5P49V5901's four universal output pairs are each independently configurable as HCSL, LVPECL, LVDS, or dual LVCMOS outputs.
- Wireless broadband developments in Southeast Asia markets
As of 2013, the 10 ASEAN nations had a total of over 700 million mobile subscriptions, with the CAGR from 2003-2013 reaching 24%. This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the various mobile broadband markets in ASEAN and looks at the respective trends in 4G LTE development for those markets.
- 2015 global tablet demand forecast
This Digitimes Research Special Report provides a 2015 forecast for the global tablet market and analyzes the strategies of key market players such as Google, Apple, Intel, and Microsoft.
- 2015 China smartphone panel trend forecast
This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the strategies of key China-based major panel makers BOE, Tianma and IVO for attacking the different market segments through technology and pricing, and their relationship to local vendors Huawei, Lenovo, ZTE, Xiaomi and Coolpad.


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A man who hacked into ATM machines and stole $29,000 in unauthorised cash withdrawals has been sentenced to weekend jail.
The ACT Supreme Court heard the man also posed as a technician to gain access to the machines and used the money to fuel a gambling addiction, losing thousands of dollars at casinos.
His crimes were described as sophisticated and ''like a computer game''. But the court also heard he suffered from psychological disorders so serious he was banned from accessing his inheritance without his parents' permission.
The man, who cannot be named, had pleaded guilty to multiple charges of theft and unauthorised modification of data and was sentenced recently, with the sentencing remarks published last week.
Chief Justice Terence Higgins said the man used considerable deception to carry out several series of offences starting in March last year when he accessed ATMs around Canberra and effectively reprogrammed the machines. As a result, he was able to force the machines to dispense more money than he had in his bank account.
The court heard the man had been frank with police when he was caught, telling them exactly how he broke into the ATM software, and had effectively helped forestall any similar crimes in the future.
He was granted bail but was picked up again last October after posing as an ATM technician to steal thousands of dollars from cash machines at the Westfield Belconnen shopping centre.
He had called the company responsible for the machines and pretended to be a technician to obtain access codes which allowed him to reprogram the machines and take the money.
He was arrested at a convenience store in Civic after ringing the company and asking for codes to fix an ATM at the store.
At the time of the offences the man was the subject of a good-behaviour order imposed for ''quite different matters''.
When he was arrested again in October he was also on strict bail conditions, which included a curfew and a ban on entering casinos.
Chief Justice Higgins accepted that the man had been suffering a gambling addiction and had psychological disorders that required medication.
But the man had suffered side effects from the drugs and had stopped taking them, which had triggered a more intense desire for gambling.
He said the man's disorders were so serious that he was not allowed to access his inheritance without permission from his parents, who were trustees of the account.
Chief Justice Higgins said the man's crimes were like a computer game because there was no personal confrontation between him and any other person.
''Against that, while it might be said that there was no individual victim at risk, and no individual who was personally defrauded, he did place a very valuable banking system at risk and that is not insignificant,'' he said.
He said the man had showed remorse for his actions and had offered to pay back the stolen money.
Chief Justice Higgins sentenced the man to a total of 29 months' jail, backdated to account for time already served.
The man will serve six months of the sentence in weekend detention and the remainder was suspended with a two-year good-behaviour order.
He must also repay $29,270 within two years.


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Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves: A Story from A Thousand and One Arabian… (edition 1958)
by Lowell Hess (pictures by)
Work details
Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves: A Story from a Thousand and One Arabian Nights by Lowell Hess
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This book is awesome!! I tell you one this for sure, they don't write 'um like this anymore. This little book is a time machine, it will open a big can of "reality check" to show just how far to the left we have moved as a society. Just think about it...only 55 yrs. ago it was okay for children to read about Ali Babas slave, called Morgiana, this little lady will do anything to protect her master's fortune and merry his son. She helps Ali Baba cover up the circumstances of his brothers death, he was cut into "four pieces", and she "went to fetch a leatherworker" to sew the body together again. She follows this act up with,"So Mogiana took oil from the jar in the courtyard, and she boiled it in the kettles. When it was hot she poured oil into each of the jars until each thief was smothered." But shes not done yet, she still needs to take out the head thief, she does this with a seductive dance, "And when she had finished dancing, and the men were still entranced with her beauty and with the music, Morgiana plunged a dagger deep into the heart of the wicked robber." Only after all this did she get her man and live happily ever after.
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FORT BLISS, Texas – A small squad of soldiers marched across an unpaved desert road. Someone in the center of the formation raised a fist. The soldiers stopped, pulled security and scanned their environment. Four of the solders rushed toward a dilapidated metal building and stacked up closely to one another, a meter away from the doorway. The last man in the stack moved up to the door and simulated the checking for booby-traps in a sweeping motion. He gave a thumbs-up. That instant, the soldier closest to the door pivoted toward the door and cocked back his leg ... Boom!
Soldiers of Alpha Company, 1st Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, were sharpening their "military operations on urban terrain," or MOUT, skills during the Network Integration Evaluation 14.1, Oct. 26, 2013.
"Today we are doing some MOUT training," said Sgt. Pablo Aguayza, a squad leader in A Company, 1/6 IN, 2/1 AD. "The first phase of NIE for us is to rehearse what we are going to do, which includes clearing and searching buildings."
The MOUT training provided an opportunity for new soldiers in Alpha Company to build unit cohesion and learn new techniques.
"A lot of my guys are still new, direct from basic training," Aguayza said. "They haven't had the chance to build that unit cohesion you get in a deployed environment. You eat, sleep and go on patrols 24 hours a day. Here you come to work, do what you've got to do on a daily basis and go home. Being in the field for an extended period of time lets me learn about my soldiers."
The soldiers who were participating were motivated and receptive during the training.
"MOUT is some awesome stuff," exclaimed Pfc. Devin Wanberg, a rifleman also with A Company, 1/6 IN, 2/1 AD. "My squad leader and team leader are very knowledgeable. We always do well on any MOUT operations."
"MOUT is very important," Aguayza said. "If you don't know what to do while clearing a building, it could cost you your life or your buddy's life."
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Victory will justify foot on English throats
RUNS and wickets are like currencies immutable in themselves, but made priceless or worthless by the state of the market. At Edgbaston last year, Australia would have given blood water, even for another run, howsoever scrambled. At Old Trafford, England prized one more wicket, howsoever filched, more than a crown jewel. It was that sort of series. The next could not come too soon.
Perhaps it was inevitable that such expectations would be disappointed. By yesterday afternoon at the Gabba, once Australia decided not to enforce the follow-on despite leading by 445 runs, wickets became as valuable as drachmas. It did not matter how many Australia runs made; it already had enough. It did not matter how many wickets England took; its cause was already lost. Runs and wickets became incidentals; only time and temperature mattered.
So Australia's second innings became an elaborate exercise in passing time. Glenn McGrath, six-wicket hero of the first innings (and so many before it), admitted it. He was ready to bowl again, he said, but it suited Australia best to wait for the pitch to dry and crack some more and England's psyche with it.
The follow-on is not compulsory. It is an option a team earns by playing so well in the first innings. Post-Calcutta, 2001, Australian captains will use it discreetly. The Queensland sun is enervating. Australia had been out in it for barely 60 overs, but England's second innings might have become more protracted, and the second Test begins in five days. Ponting had to plan not just a match, but a series. Victory, when gained some time today, will be its own justification.
But it did mean that this most lustily awaited Test match became, for a time, a farce. Crowds, though mindless, are not fools. This one became restive, coarse, distracted.
Its ranks thinned apace. Some decamped voluntarily to bars, where there was more shade and colder beer. Some were ejected, waved on their way by Kevin Pietersen, doubtlessly returning the morning's compliment. The Barmy Army, offended by arrangements, said it would go home. Oddly, this was reported as a threat.
Everyone's attention wandered. Matthew Hayden ran himself out, a rare careless mistake. The scoreboard put overs and runs up against the wrong England bowlers. The ground announcer was as ignorant as his type everywhere. He brought news of 9000 runs for Ricky Ponting, and the Gabba record, in mid-over, holding up play. Test cricket is rarely so bloodless, except when Zimbabwe is playing.
Australia need not apologise for ruthlessness. Its job this summer is not to show mercy, nor play to the crowd, but to win back the Ashes. It had earned the running of this match by its domineering cricket in the first innings, belying some predictions of fatal calcification. England, the diligent Ian Bell excepted, was abject.
The ageless McGrath had a joke at his critics' expense as he led Australia off, clutching his back and affecting to hold a walking stick, pantomiming an old man. He had earned his leading role. But one wonders if he would have been flippant if the match had been tighter fought.
Australia's second innings was an exhibition; it looked like Test cricket, but without the sense of competition.
But Australia might have done England one passing favour. If it is so that England lacks bowling, here were 40 bonus overs of practice. Flintoff did not open with the troubled Steve Harmison, which was timid, for he could lose his side nothing now. But at length he did bowl and, moreover, without wide or no-ball to his debit. There was never doubt that Harmison could bowl. Now he must when it matters.
England's cause is much set back, but not lost. Australia, never forget, thrashed England in the first Test last year, too.
When news happens: send photos, videos & tip-offs to 0424 SMS SMH (+61 424 767 764), or us.
Did you know you could pay less than $1 a day for a subscription to the Herald? Subscribe today.


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Along Maui's westside highway heading towards Lahaina is the long stretch of beach known as Ukumehame. There's a great surf spot off this beach called Thousand Peaks, probably named after the amazing mountain views you get from the water. This beach also has a long reef structure that stretches all the way to Olowalu. It's also a really nice walking beach because of the driftwood and general scenery. It's right along the highway so all you have to do is pull off to the side of the road and pick your spot. There are no facilities here, so plan your day accordingly.
A special thanks to Stephen Sullivan, a local Maui videographer and editor, for shooting and editing this beach tour!
Click here for Steve's YouTube channel
Additional photos of Ukumehame/Thousand Peaks:
View Ukumehame Beach Park in a larger map


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A deal under which the Georgian opposition will take the chairmanship of a commission on constitutional reform could break the political deadlock in Tbilisi, prime minister Nika Gilauri said yesterday.
We are already making progress, Gilauri told Emerging Markets. One of the streets barricaded this week by opposition protesters against president Eduard Saakashvili had been unblocked, he said.
We have made a very good offer to the opposition: to have a broad inter-party group to decide on a new election code and other constitutional changes, which can be headed by a member of the opposition. I think its a very fair offer, and dialogue is ongoing.
The Georgian opposition continues to demand Saakashvilis resignation, though. Thats not going to happen, Gilauri said.
Gilauri admitted that the political conflict in Georgia had impacted economic recovery, especially in April. I can feel the economic pulse pretty well through such indicators as budget revenues and the foreign exchange market, he told a seminar at the EBRD business forum. January and February were difficult, there were very good indications in March, and in April the situation deteriorated.
The stand-off with the opposition could have been serious, but serious conflict has been averted, he said. We made some mistakes, and we learned from them. We showed that Georgia is working as a democracy. Police control of demonstrations could be favourably compared with western Europe, he said.
Georgia watchers generally believe the political crisis with the opposition. Some see national independence day on May 26 as a crucial date: Rustaveli Avenue, the traditional route of military parades, has been blocked this week by a protesters tent city.
Gilauri said that friction between Georgia and Russia which has risen again this month, with NATO exercises in the Caucasian republic eliciting hostile comments from Russian president Dmitry Medvedev was a big concern for investors.
[Investors] love our tax system, they love the regulation or rather the lack of it and they love our fight against corruption. But Russia is the issue they always ask about.
There are three reasons why the relationship should not obstruct inward investment, he said: the amount of international attention focused on Georgia since the military conflict with Russia in August last year, which meant it would not be repeated; the EU monitoring mission and the USs recent strategic agreement with Georgia; and the fact that Europe had woken up to the need for a southern energy corridor, in which Georgia would play a crucial part.
Gilauri told the seminar that the support of international donors, who have put together a $4.5 billion package for Georgia, was a crucial factor in economic recovery. Diversification of exports, and business environment changes including the fight against corruption, have been crucial, he argued.
The August conflict with Russia had put Georgia two months ahead of other nations in terms of crisis management, Gilauri claimed.
Badri Japaridze, deputy chairman of the board of TBC, one of Georgias largest banks, told the seminar that the banks had stayed open through the military conflict and clients had later repaid them with loyalty.
Although there had been a sharp outflow of deposits in September, this had then stabilised. The quality of the loan portfolio deteriorated in the second half of last year, and we have not seen foreign private investors coming in since that time, he said. Since the August events, TBC switched from an expansionary strategy to aim for stabilisation.


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A Brief History of the NEHL
In 1956 Ashmores Hockey Club wrote to local clubs asking for support for a proposed league in the area. Unfortunately however the league would have to be confined to County Durham as part of the HA ruling, limiting the scope of the fixtures. (Late in 1971 one of the stronger clubs in the area, Sunderland, resurrected the league idea at the Durham County AGM and proposed that Northumberland be included). The league commenced in season 1972-1973 and 18 clubs participated in the very first NEHL. In 1973 the number of clubs increased to 21 and the second team league was started, also with 21 teams. 1975 saw the leagues split so that there would be two divisions with 12 teams in each division.
In 1998 a conference division was set up for lower sides wishing to participate within a more relaxed format free from certain constraints of the league. There is less formality and no fines attributable to those teams involved in the conference.
In 2002 the League decided to create its own website and acquired the internet address to utilise this popular medium as the main source of information for clubs and the League.
In 2006 the League was re-organised into x4 Divisions of 12 teams with 2 Conference Divisions, North & South in order to cater for a number of Clubs were only interested in or limited to 'local' fixtures.
In 2007 the status of the Conference was changed so that they would operate as a Hockey Development League.
In 2010 the NEHL appointed a League Administrator responsible for the publication of the North East Hockey Handbook, maintenance of the NEHL website and the administration of all NEHL Leagues.
In 2012 the League updated it's Logo from that shown, left, to our current design at the head of the site. Corporate Sponsorship also became available for the League, initially from a number of local Sportswear companies and currently from
Wise Financial Consulting
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A man used a demand note to rob a Chase bank branch in National City on Tuesday morning, police said.
The robber entered the bank on Plaza Boulevard near Highland Avenue about 10:30 a.m. and demanded cash, National City police said. No weapon was seen.
Witnesses saw him drive away in an older black Ford Crown Victoria with damage to the passenger side.
The robber was described as black, 6 feet tall, wearing a black hooded sweatshirt and black jeans.


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Pictou mayor, former principal, says new P-12 school is best option
PICTOU - The Town of Pictou's newest mayor didn't hold anything back when he stood in front of his old boss Monday night.
STELLARTON - Sobeys has signed an agreement with The Scholten Group to supply six of its dealer-owned gas bars and convenience stations in New Brunswick with fuel.
The stations will be converted to the Shell brand beginning this month.
"Sobeys fuel and convenience is open for business and looking for opportunities to expand into other areas throughout Atlantic Canada," says Valerie Ryan, VP Convenience & Fuel. "Our value proposition for customers - grocery and fuel savings, combined with our partnership with AIR MILES® - is proving to be a real win for our current partners in the region, and we're happy to welcome the Scholten family to our network."
Jerry Scholten, Group Administrator with The Scholten Group, agrees saying, "Partnering with Sobeys Inc. offers our customers more when they shop with us; more opportunities to save at the pump through Sobeys Food for Fuel program and opportunities to save on their groceries as well using AIR MILES Cash. Our customers want savings on these priority purchases and we want to help them save. This partnership makes good sense for us and for any fuel dealer."
With 85 Sobeys stores in the region, expanding the fuel presence of Sobeys Inc. through the Shell brand is an integral part of the Company's continued growth in Atlantic Canada. Cross-shop rewards are a significant opportunity to strengthen customer loyalty and the Food for Fuel program offers customers tangible value for their money.
During the Food for Fuel promotion, Sobeys shoppers who spend a minimum of $50 receive a coupon for per-litre savings on fuel purchased at participating retailers, including Shell.
"We are impressed with the efforts of Sobeys to rebuild the Shell image throughout Atlantic Canada and introducing new programs that we believe, are second to none in the industry," adds Scholten. "Sobeys fuel programs and relationship with AIR MILES, combined with the brand strength of Shell give us the best opportunity to continue to grow our business and better serve our customers."
The Scholten Group is run by 2nd generation cousins, Jerry and Chris Scholten, who are committed to offering their customers the best value and service to their local communities.
"Sobeys is proudly Atlantic Canadian, having started right here at home more than 107 years ago as a family business. So we see this partnership as a point of pride; working with another family business like the Scholtens who share similar values to Sobeys in placing the customer first and supporting our local communities," adds Ryan.
Scholten locations in New Brunswick that will be joining the Sobeys team include:
- Scholtens Somerset – 511 Somerset St., Saint John
- Scholtens Grand Bay- 217 River Valley Rd., Grand Bay
- Scholtens Oromocto-201 Restigouche Rd., Oromocto
- Scholtens Hanwell- 2049 Route 640, Hanwell
- Scholtens Sunset- 325 Sunset Dr., Fredericton
- Scholtens Riverside- 562 Riverside Dr., Fredericton


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Libra, a large automobile organisation wants to increase transparency within the organisation. It already has a vigilance cell which is in place. However, the management found out that inspite of constant promotion about increasing transparency, the employees are not disclosing any irregularities within the organisation. What policy/agreement should the organisation implement to increase complaints by the employees?


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