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Welcome back to our Basin home, everyone. Much thanks to Istari, NLX, and Janbo00 for their work in getting us back online. I cannot sing their praises enough. Seriously.
The forums are the most current version (we went from 3.x to 4.x, btw) so you should see some differences. I also installed a new skin for us. A neat feature is that you can change the header background image to your liking. Click the paintbrush icon in the top right of the screen (up near your icon) and make a selection. Click it again to close.
Please post irregularities in the "Need Help Using the Forums", uh, forum. Someone will be along to handle everything in turn.
Laters - Teep
Welcome to The Amazon Basin
The Basin, as it's commonly used in shorthand, is a community of like-minded people who enjoy gaming in environments free from racism, hatred, cheaters, and griefers. We strive to foster lasting, meaningful relationships with those within The Basin by doing everything we can to ensure those who share our ideals are welcomed with open arms. Over the 13+ years we've been together, we feel our efforts have suceeded.
Our community is made up of many different people from continents all over the globe. Some of our longest tenured members are grandparents, kids, and adults. Being inclusive in nature, we also have prominent members who are female, gay, and/or transgender. As long as you are here to enjoy the company of others, play without cheating, and treat others how you wish to be treated, you will fit in just fine.
Brief History
The Amazon Basin began in 2000 as a guild for Diablo II. It grew quickly into other games, but always stayed true to the founding principals of "play nice and show some class." We've formed and closed guilds for many games, but through all of this, we've continued to build a reputation in the professional game development community as an honest, hard-working guild. We have built close ties to Blizzard, ArenaNet, Runic Studios, Grinding Gear Games, and others. Those relationships have led to private company visits, closed alpha and beta testing opportunities, published game guides, and portions of published games featuring The Basin and its members.
Community Members and Basin Members
The Basin community is essentially comprised of Community Members (CMs) and Amazon Basin Members (ABMs). Once you register on our site or forums, you are welcomed into the community as a CM. You can post topics in our forums and participate in our games. In some guilds, you can hold administrative roles as well. ABMs are people who've been here for a long time and have gone through a membership process. They've done this so they can help keep this place running, either as part of an in-game guild or a moderator on our forums. ABMs also have the task of making decisions that help shape the community at-large.
So Now What?
- Register to participate in our forums - By registering, you'll be granted access to not only read our forums, but post and rely as well. Our forums are the primary method our community uses to communicate.
- Make sure you understand what is expected - Be sure to read our guidelines to get a clear understanding of the type of online community we are. Suffice to say, we keep it pretty clean around here.
- Visit the forums for your favorite game - We have large sections for games like World of Warcraft, Diablo II, Diablo III, Guild Wars, Path of Exile, and Star Wars. We also have smaller sets of forums for quite a few miscellaneous games.
- Read and add to our Wiki - The Basin's Wiki page contains detailed info on many games and includes the web's best information on Diablo 2.
- Read more about The Amazon Basin - If you'd like to learn more about the community, feel free to visit our History of the Amazon Basin page. Most of our milestones over the last 13+ years have been detailed there.
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Daily Devotions
Daily Devotions Podcast
Truth In Real Life
Truth In Real Life Podcast
"I will say of the LORD, He is my refuge, and my fortress: my God; in him will I trust." (Psalm 91:2)
In the news, we hear a lot about refugees. We talk about those people, and we see pictures of them on TV. But who are they really? They are people who are looking for safety and help. For one reason or another they have been put out of their homes and villages usually because of war and are seeking a new place to live and a brand new start in life. We have refugees come to the United States sometimes because they can't live in their own countries anymore. Just as those people are looking for a safer, better place to live and raise their families, you and I are spiritual refugees. We are searching for a safe place, a refuge and we find it in God.
The dictionary defines refuge as "a source of help, relief, or comfort in times of trouble." How is God my refuge? Psalm 91:2 refers to a spiritual refuge, not necessarily a physical one. When we are tempted to sin, what do we do? We need to find a place to get away from the temptation so that we don't sin. God provides that place. When we are tempted to sin we can run to Him, pray, and ask His help and He will be our refuge, our source of help and comfort, our safe place.
Next time you are faced with temptation and don't know what to do, run to God, your refuge. Talk to Him, read His Word, and let Him protect you and be your hiding place from sin and temptation.
God provides safety from all spiritual danger.
My Response: » Is there any temptation that I need to resist by fleeing to God for protection?
The Lamb of God
John 1:29 "The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world."
We are to let God, not sin, control our lives. Romans 6:12-14 – Let not sin therefore reign in your mortal body, that ye should obey it in the lusts thereof. Neither yield ye your members as instruments of unrighteousness unto sin: but yield yourselves unto God, as those that are alive from the dead, and your members as instruments of righteousness unto God. For sin shall not have dominion over you: for ye are not under the law, but under grace.
Conversion is an action one makes by repenting and putting their trust in Christ. One must turn from sin (repent) and turn to Christ through faith. (Matthew 11:28-29) "Come unto me, all ye that labour and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn of me; for I am meek and lowly in heart; and ye shall find rest unto your souls."
© Copyright Kids 4 Truth International. All Rights Reserved.

subset: commoncrawl


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SOMEONE could be killed unless urgent measures are taken to ease congestion on a key Worcester road.
Councillor Richard Boorn said he is worried about "a fatality" on Spetchley Road due to a combination of too many parked cars, lots of children crossing it and more traffic amid proposals for a major housing development nearby.
Bloor Homes wants to build 255 new properties on land off Kilbury Drive, despite vociferous opposition from residents.
The plan, which will be voted on by Wychavon District Council in January, was debated at Worcester City Council's planning committee.
Coun Boorn said the land where the homes would be built does flood when it rains, and that Spetchley Road, which cars will use to access the site, is not prepared for even more vehicles.
"People are not against any development at all, but they are against some of the risks associated with this one," he said.
"The drainage system is 50 years old and is incapable of dealing with all these new properties. And in terms of Spetchley Road, that's an accident waiting to happen.
"With all the children that cross it to get to school and all the workers going to County Hall, my worry is that one day there could be a fatality there.
"If this development happens all you'll do is bring it about sooner."
Residents also packed into the meeting to have their say.
Gerry Roberts, from Kilbury Estate Action Group, said: "A development on the scale proposed is not sustainable – it will cause so many problems that it will be embarrassing."
Resident Keith Burton, speaking for Spetchley Road Residents Association, said: "There are aspects of this we're concerned about. Spetchley Road is a rat-run for students and County Hall staff. We don't want any more traffic coming down there. That's our worry."
The campaigners want Bloor to ensure access to the site is not off Spetchley Road or Walkers Lane.
Chris Shaw, on behalf of the developer, told the meeting the South Worcestershire Development Plan has earmarked the land for 300 homes.
"We have talked to residents three times and are listening – it may well be that some of the solutions to Spetchley Road lie in the hands of other organisations," he said.
He also said 101 properties would be affordable homes, Walkers Lane will be widened five-and-a-half metres, and that Severn Trent was not objecting to the project.
A previous application for 257 homes on the site was rejected in February, mainly on transport and design grounds.
The feedback from the debate will be sent to Wychavon's planners.


text: Such statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors, including those identified at the bottom of yesterday's release and those identified in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement forward-looking statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. During this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, such as FFO and NOI. Definitions of FFO and NOI and an explanation of management's view of the usefulness and risks of FFO and NOI can be found toward the bottom of yesterday's release and are also available on the Investor Relations section of the web at highwoods.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Ed Fritsch. Ed Fritsch Good morning and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased with our first quarter results, with FFO up $0.01 from the fourth quarter and essentially flat from a year ago after adjusting for the debt, equity and disposition transactions we planned and executed last year that enhanced our liquidity for future growth opportunities. We are seeing increased leasing activity in many of our markets, including potential build-to-suit opportunities. There appears to be some guarded optimism about the economy and we are hopeful this will lead to the beginning of meaningful job growth sometime in 2011. As noted in yesterday's press release, we leased 1.3 million square feet of space, 75% of which was office. This compares to 851,000 square feet leased in the same quarter a year ago, 64% of which was office. This is the most office space we've leased since the second quarter of 2008. We continue to benefit from a higher quality portfolio, concentrated in better submarkets, a healthy balance sheet, and strong relationships with our customers and the brokerage community. As a result, in every one of our core markets, our office occupancy remains significantly better than the market as a whole.


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Here's a partial list of notable Irvine natives and residents, excluding athletes:
Joey Allen, guitarist for glam metal band Warrant.
David Baker, commissioner of the Arena Football League and former Irvine councilman.
William Barber, Medal of Honor United States Marine Corps officer.
Thrice, a post-hardcore band.
John Campbell III, U.S. Congressman.
Jeanne Carmen, model, pin-up girl and actress.
Justin Chon, actor.
Zack de la Rocha, lead singer for rock band Rage Against the Machine.
Jack DeSena – sketch comedy actor on Nickelodeon's 'All That.'
Kevin Drum, political blogger for the Mother Jones magazine website.
Tom Dumont, guitarist for rock band No Doubt.
East West, Christian rap-core band.
Will Ferrell, actor and comedian.
Shane Haboucha, actor.
Mishavonna Henson, American Idol season 8 contestant.
Hugh Hewitt, author, radio talk show host and blogger.
Quinton Jackson, professional mixed martial arts fighter.
Ezra Klein, Washington Post columnist, MSNBC contributor, blogger.
Nam Le, professional poker player.
Shallon Lester, star of MTV's reality series "Downtown Girls."
Martin Leung, pianist.
Annalee Newitz, science and technology journalist.
Aubrey O'Day, singer.
Nicole Parker, comedian and actress.
Leonard Peikoff, philosopher.
Jason Peoples, winner of reality TV show Average Joe season 1.
Gene Polito, cinematographer and professor at USC.
Jim Rome, sports radio personality.
Dita Von Teese, burlesque performer.
Irv Weinstein, retired television news anchor.
Caroline Zhang, figure skater.
Rebecca Black, singer.
Source: Wikipedia
Contact the writer: ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER


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Today, I got in a heated fight and ended up being punched in the jaw. The fight was about Harry Potter. FML
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Today, I watched TV in the early morning. I was watching The Ring, and when the scene came on where the girl is crawling out of the TV, my dad grabbed my shoulders from behind me out of nowhere, causing me to shriek like a little bitch. I don't know how long he waited to do that. FML
Today, my girlfriend texted me "I think we should move in". Then, ten seconds later she sent another text that said, "Sorry, typo. Move on". FML
Today, I asked out the man of my dreams. He told me he'd ask his dad if it was okay. I thought he was just kidding, until he pulled out his phone and called his dad. After a few minutes of "come on, dad" and "but why?" he hung up and said his dad wouldn't let him. He's 22. FML


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Retro STAR WARS Travel Ads
Thinking of taking a trip to somewhere in the Star Wars universe, but can't decide on a destination? Maybe these retro 1940's style, Star Wars travel ads will help you choose your dream location.
Out of all these places, Dagobah is absolutely the place I would least want to go, but you can definitely sign me up for the Kessel Run tour!
The posters were designed by Steve Thomas. They were created two years ago for a web merchant that never came through for the artist. Thomas hopes this unnamed site will finally make them available for purchase.
Check out the posters below and tell us what you think!
Joey Paur — Co-Founder / Editor of GeekTyrant.com, and if you haven't noticed I write… a lot. Movies are my passion and I live and breathe all things geek. This site is part of my life's work, it's a part of me. I love what I do, and I enjoy sharing everything I can with you when it comes to movies and geekery. In my spare time I travel to the netherworlds to battle demons. @JoeyPaur | email@example.com
Featured Posts on GeekTyrant


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Talk:Compact Disc
From Uncyclopedia, the content-free encyclopedia
This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the Compact Disc article.
|The contents of DualDisc were merged into Compact Disc and they now redirect here. For the contribution history and old versions of the merged article please see its history.
edit Ideas regarding Certificate of deposit
CD is also an abbreviation for Certificate of deposit. How might we be able to work this in? --Pentium5dot1 t~^_^~c 23:56, 26 March 2009 (UTC)
- Another article for CD with a disambiguation page. Rev. Zim (Talk) Get saved! 15:34, November 3, 2009 (UTC)


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Keys To The City Earrings
You've got your keys to the city, and you're ready to take on the day! These vintage-inspired golden antique studs feature crystal stones that capture the light just right! Pair them with a whimsical cap-sleeve floral dress for play or a fierce little shift dress for work.
- Crystal stone accents
- Antique gold tone
- Lead and nickel free
- Earrings measure approximately .75" in length and .4 inches in width


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21st Annual BEST Invitational Tournament
Girls Grades 3-8 | Feb 7-9, 2014 | Register
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Boys Grades 4-8 Feb 21-23, 2014 | Register
Join us in Kansas City, Missouri in February 2014. The Kansas City Keys will host basketball teams from across the country for the twenty-first year anniversary of the Best Basketball Invitational (BBI) Tournament.
The tournament, a three weekend event, will feature girls divisions grades third through eighth February 7-9, 2014, boys divisions grades kindergarten through fourth February 14-16, 2014, and boys division - grades fifth through eigth February 21-23, 2014.
If highly skilled competition is what you are seeking for your team, do not miss your opportunity to participate in the BBI in 2014!ALL TEAMS WELCOME TO PARTICIPATE!! Scouts-Newsletter Articles-Player Interviews!
Teams participating from Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and many more!!!
"Deadline 1/31/2014"Additional $50 after (availability only!)
II. SEND IN $200 FEE - MONEY ORDER /CASHIER CHECKS ONLY or PAYPAL
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The actress, who plays her in a second TV movie this fall, ticked off the comparisons: Both are blondes. Both began their careers as models. And both were "judged by the press in many outrageous ways."
Having said that, Stewart probably would not appreciate Shepherd's portrayal of her in CBS' Martha Behind Bars, due Sept. 25. "If she came in the room now, I might make a fast exit," Shepherd told TV critics.
Bars is actually a misnomer. Only a small fraction of the made-for-TV movie takes place at the prison in Alderson, W. Va., where Stewart is seen finishing second in a Christmas decorations contest.
Instead, the movie opens the day her company makes a public stock offering, and it details the legal hot water she got into after she lied to investigators about the circumstances surrounding her sale of stock in ImClone, a company run by her friend Sam Waksal.
Shepherd played a manic, over-the-top version of Stewart in NBC's 2003 Martha Inc.: The Story of Martha Stewart, and for that, Shepherd makes no apologies.
"Rageaholism is an aspect of Martha Stewart's history of taking it out on people," she says. "The first (movie) covered a whole crazy era of her life when she was first becoming so successful. With the second movie, it wasn't needed."
Instead, the new movie — scheduled for May but shelved to capitalize on Stewart's new Apprentice and syndicated series — covers a more sober period.
Producer Tom Patricia urged restraint: "We thought if we portrayed her as someone who was exploding all the time, it would be tiring."
Shepherd calls Stewart a "Shakespearean" character who is "enormously complicated ... capable of the greatest things in the world and like all of us, we have our failings." She says the role gave her "a tremendous amount of admiration" for Stewart.
But Shepherd concedes that she could use a few pointers from the domestic diva. "I'm primitive in those areas," she says. "I'm not very good in the kitchen, but I like to eat, and I'm trying to get better."


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More words related to subdued
adj. drab, lackluster in effect on senses
adj. having little effect on senses
adj. mild, temperate in effect on senses
adj. dull, uninteresting
adj. shy; compliant
adj. easygoing, pleasant in personality
- equable
- feeble
- flat
- forbearant
- forbearing
- forgiving
- gentle
- good-humored
- good-natured
- good-tempered
- humane
Roget's 21st Century Thesaurus, Third Edition Copyright © 2013 by the Philip Lief Group.Cite This Source


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The Associated Press
A list of some fatal shootings at U.S. schools in recent years:
•Oct. 2, 2006: A gunman took about a dozen girls hostage, killing at least three of them, at a one-room Amish schoolhouse in Pennsylvania's Lancaster County, police said. The shooter was among the dead, and a number of people were injured.
•Sept. 29, 2006: A 15-year-old brought two guns to a school in rural Cazenovia, Wis., and fatally shot the principal, a day after the principal gave him a disciplinary warning for having tobacco on school grounds, police said.
•Sept. 27, 2006: Duane Morrison, 53, took six girls hostage at Platte Canyon High School in Bailey, Colo. Morrison, sexually assaulting them and using them as human shields for hours before fatally shooting one girl and killing himself.
•Aug. 24, 2006: Christopher Williams, 27, went to an elementary school in Essex, Vt., looking for his ex-girlfriend, a teacher. He couldn't find her and fatally shot one teacher and wounded another, police said. Williams also killed his ex-girlfriend's mother, according to authorities. He shot himself twice in the head after the rampage and was arrested.
•March 21, 2005: A 16-year-old shot and killed five schoolmates, a teacher and an unarmed guard at a high school on the Red Lake Indian Reservation in Minnesota before taking his own life. Weise had earlier killed his grandfather and his grandfather's companion.
•Nov. 22, 2004: A 16-year-old is accused of fatally shooting one student and wounding three others outside Strawberry Mansion High in Philadelphia. The attack apparently was over a $50 debt in a rap contest. The teen is set to stand trial on murder charges later this month.
•April 24, 2003: A 14-year-old shot and killed the principal in the crowded cafeteria of a junior high school in south-central Pennsylvania, before killing himself.
•May 26, 2000: A 13-year-old killed his English teacher on the last day of classes in Lake Worth, Fla., after the teacher refused to let him talk with two girls in his classroom. He was convicted of second-degree murder and is serving a 28-year sentence.
•April 20, 1999: An 18-year-old and a 17-year-old killed 12 students and a teacher and wounded 23 before killing themselves at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colo.
•May 21, 1998: Two teenagers were killed and more than 20 people hurt when a teenage boy opened fire at a high school in Springfield, Ore., after killing his parents. The 17-year-old was sentenced to nearly 112 years in prison.
•May 19, 1998: Three days before his graduation, an honor student opened fire at a high school in Fayetteville, Tenn., killing a classmate who was dating his ex-girlfriend. The 18-year-old was sentenced to life in prison.
•March 24, 1998: Two boys, ages 11 and 13, fired on their Jonesboro, Ark., middle school from nearby woods, killing four girls and a teacher and wounding 10 others. Both boys were later convicted of murder and can be held until age 21.
•Dec. 1, 1997: Three students were killed and five wounded at a high school in West Paducah, Ky. The then 14-year-old later pleaded guilty but mentally ill to murder and is serving life in prison.
•Oct. 1, 1997: A 16-year-old of Pearl, Miss., fatally shot two students and wounded seven others after stabbing his mother to death. He was sentenced the following year to three life sentences.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) Top-seeded Elena Dementieva of Russia advanced to the Family Circle Cup semifinals when Slovakia's Dominika Cibulkova quit in the second set Friday because of a leg injury.
Dementieva next meets fifth-seeded Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark, who routed Frenchwoman Virginie Razzano 6-2, 6-0.
German Sabine Lisicki, the 16th-seed who ousted Venus Williams on Thursday, advanced with an easy 6-4, 6-0 victory over unseeded Russian Elena Vesnina. She will face sixth-seed Marion Bartoli of France, who easily eliminated Hungary's Melinda Czink, 6-4, 6-1
Dementieva won the first set 6-4, and was up 1-0 in the second against Cibulkova in a match featuring long baseline rallies. Cibulkova, seeded seventh, played with her left thigh wrapped and had it rewrapped between sets before retiring. She waved to the crowd as she walked off the green clay.
A tour spokesman said that Cibulkova's leg had been wrapped because of a left adductor, or groin, injury.
Cibulkova led 4-3 in the first set before Dementieva won three straight games, surrendering only three points. She is 3-1 against Cibulkova.
"She came with the tape on her leg and I didn't know if it was bad or not, so I just feel sorry she couldn't finish the match," Dementieva said.
Wozniacki, an 18-year-old Dane, won last week on clay at Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. She said she wants to enjoy her victory and think about Dementieva on Saturday morning.
"I need to stay aggressive," she said. "My legs have to be there, too. I need to keep running because she's a great player, great fighter."
After trailing early, Vesnina tied Lisicki at 3-3 in the first set. But then she could only win one more game against the German with a powerful serve. Lisicki steadily served at well over 100 mph (160 kph), including five aces.
"I think I served pretty well," the 19-year-old Lisicki said. "In the beginning, I couldn't serve the whole time very good. I made some double faults."
She called it the best tournament of her career.
"I'm really happy with it. And I've beaten Williams so it's a great tournament for more," she said.
Cibulkova's retirement was the second by a seeded player in two days. Razzano advanced Thursday night when third-seeded Vera Zvonareva injured her ankle chasing a ball and left the stadium in a golf cart.
Bartoli, who has won all three of her Family Circle matches in straight sets, said it was good to be in the semis and it will help as she prepares for coming weeks.
"My goal is to play really well at the French Open, that's why I'm starting the clay season so early," she said, adding she beat Lisicki last year at Wimbledon.
"But you know, she beat Venus here and she's in the semifinal as well," Bartoli said. "It's going to be difficult, but if I'm playing the same way as I played tonight, it's going to be a great match."
Cibulkova's retirement was the second by a seeded player in two days. Razzano advanced Thursday when third-seeded Vera Zvonareva injured her ankle chasing a ball and left the stadium in a golf cart.
Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Guidelines: You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. Read more.


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- 3 total posts
- 3 questions
Questions from Ali_D
Multiple Laser Skin Tightening Treatments on my Thighs?
I'm 19 years old, and over the past two years I've lost 90 pounds through diet and exercise, great, but I have loose skin on my thighs ...but I definitely don't want the scars... READ MORE
Scar Re-pigmentation Treatments?
Are there any effective scar repigmentation treatments? I have hypopigmented scars that are really embarrassing, and I know that nothing will make them invisible. But, is there... READ MORE
Treatment Options for Loose Armpit Skin?
I don't need an Arm Lift. The skin is perfectly fine on both arms and on my left armpit. The problem is on my right armpit that has skin that hangs and is wrinkly. Is there a... READ MORE


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Shanty towns (also known as Hoovervilles and Squatter settlements) are likely to be very helpful in an apocalyptic scernario because you can often add on to them, because they're made up of probably very common materials in a outbreak like scrap metal, plywood, and plastics. When making a shanty town survivors should take into account:
- Is the terrain hilly or too far below sea level? If so do not build on these. It would be best to build on a flat plain where you can have a 360 degree view of the landscape.
- Is the area habited by bandits, infected or already occupied? If so do not build because you probably won't have time to set up.
Keep this in mind and you can have a shanty town set up in no time, usually Shanty towns don't have walls, but in an outbreak scenario you should build walls to keep people out.
- Can be a great permanent settlement, if defended properly.
- Materials required are easy to find.
- Construction is simple.
- Can add on things very easily like towers or add on to buildings.
- If you need to move, as stated before you can find the buliding elements easily or just move all the bulidings.
- If not built properly it's as useful as a jammed gun in a firefight.
- Not very good at keeping the elements out.
- They can be taken over easily if not on constant watch.
- They do not have electricity, sanitation or other things so keep that in mind.
- These materials aren't very tough so be careful if fighting erupts.


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This is a little old in Internet terms – indeed, it aired just hours before Invisible Children co-founder Jason Russell suffered a breakdown and was hospitalized.
But heck, I thought this was worth a post: British comic Charlie Brooker's take on Invisible Children, the not-for-profit group which created the KONY 2012 viral video.
Brooker is one of those who openly questions the Invisible Children group (we can safely say he's not in the Ben Affleck camp).
It's a debate that raged for most of last week: while Invisible Children's spending habits and approach to film-making might be questionable, is a simplified film the price we must to pay for much-needed heightened awareness?
Brooker always makes for good viewing simply because he's willing to look beneath the glossy surface of media products – no matter how outwardly noble they may appear. At the same time, some people find that level of cynicism itself to be unproductive.
As always, sound off in the comments.
Finally, be warned – this is a Charlie Brooker video, so to those unfamiliar with his style, it's probably not safe to have blasting out of speakers in the workplace. There are some big boy and big girl words that your boss may not wish to hear.


text:
A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts
- First Online:
- Received:
- Accepted:
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system's components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.
KeywordsCoastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) Urbanised deltas Climate change
1 Introduction
Coasts are highly dynamic and geo-morphologically complex systems, which respond in various ways to extreme weather events. Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of natural disasters (Douben 2006). It is well known that the urban areas adjacent to the shorelines are associated with large and growing concentrations of human population, settlements and socio-economic activities. Considering the fact that 21 % of the world's population lives within coastal zones (du Gommes et al. 1997; Brooks et al. 2006), the potential impacts of sea-level rise are significant for the wider coastal ecosystem (Kumar 2006). Hoozemans et al. 1993 carried out a global vulnerability assessment and estimated that, under current conditions, an average of 46 million people per year experience storm-surge flooding. Baarse (1995) suggests that some 189 million people presently live below the one-in-a-hundred-year storm-surge level. There is therefore a need for a readily calculated and easily understood method to calculate flood vulnerability in such areas. In this work, we build on earlier work on a flood vulnerability index in river basins (Balica et al. 2009) to establish a flood vulnerability index using a composite method. This index can then be used to identify the most vulnerable coastal cities, develop adaptation measures for them and assess the effects of future change scenarios.
In this article, the focus is on large cities in low-lying deltaic environments with soft sedimentary coasts (estuaries, lagoons, mangroves, dunes, beaches). These cities experience both the influence of river discharge and of the sea and they are, by consequence, very vulnerable to impacts of climate change.
The paper focuses on coastal flood vulnerability and the systems approach in Sect. 2. In Sect. 3, the development of Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index methodology is presented, and in Sect. 4, this is applied to assess the FVI of different deltaic cities. This is followed by an examination of the effects of the climate change impacts on the CCFVI in Sect. 5. Discussion and conclusions in Sects. 6 and 7 respectively follow this.
2 Defining coastal system and coastal flood vulnerability
It is expected that, due to climate change, coastal communities around the world will be increasingly affected by floods. In fact, some are already considered vulnerable to ongoing climatic variability (IPCC 2007a, b; Mirza 2003). Climate change is expected to cause accelerated sea-level rise with elevated tidal inundation, increased flood frequency, accelerated erosion, rising water tables, increased saltwater intrusion, increasing storm surges and increasing frequency of cyclones (Fenster and Dolan 1996). Apart from this, population growth and increasing urbanisation cause marine and coastal degradation (UNEP, GEO-3 2002).
2.1 What is a coastal system?
Coasts are dynamic systems, undergoing adjustments of form and process (termed morphodynamics) at different time and space scales in response to geo-morphological and oceanographical factors (Cowell et al. 2003a, b). Human activity exerts additional pressures that may dominate over natural processes. Coastal landforms, affected by short-term perturbations such as storms, generally return to their pre-disturbance morphology, implying a simple, morphodynamic equilibrium (Woodroffe 2003; Crooks 2004).
The natural variability of coasts can make it difficult to identify the impacts of climate change. For example, most beaches worldwide show evidence of recent erosion, but sea-level rise is not necessarily the primary driver. Erosion can result from other factors, such as altered wind patterns (Pirazzoli et al. 2004; Pritchard 1967; Regnauld et al. 2004), offshore bathymetric changes (Cooper and Navas 2004), or reduced fluvial sediment input (Nicholls et al. 2007), or hard structures built near the coast.
2.1.1 Natural coastal systems
The IPCC (2007a, b) distinguishes between the following natural coastal systems: deltas, estuaries and lagoons, beaches, rocky shorelines and cliffed coasts, mangroves, sea grasses and coral reefs. In this paper, we focus on large urban areas situated in deltas. A delta is an area where the river sediment is building out into the sea. Deltas are biologically rich and diverse systems with waterfowls, fish and vegetation, and they support a large economic system based on tourism, agriculture, hunting, fishing, harbour and industry development (EC-JRC 2005; Prakasa and Murty 2005). Consequently, deltas are often densely populated (Ericson et al. 2006). IPCC (2007a, b). Many people in deltas are already subject to flooding from both storm surges and seasonal river floods, and therefore, it is necessary to develop further methods to assess flood vulnerability of coastal cities.
2.2 Coastal flood vulnerability
Vulnerability is considered as the extent of harm, which can be expected under certain conditions of exposure, susceptibility and resilience (Balica et al. 2009; Hufschmidt 2011; Scheuer et al. 2010; Willroth et al. 2010; Fuchs et al. 2011). More specifically in the case of floods, a system is susceptible to floods due to exposure in conjunction with its capacity/incapacity to be resilient, to cope, recover or adapt to the extent.
Large populations are found in coastal areas where the exposure to coastal floods is high (Small and Nicholls 2003). The number of people affected is likely to increase, due to net coastward migration across the globe (Bijlsma et al. 1995). On the one hand, some of the exposed populations are protected from flooding by various structural and non-structural measures that are part of the resilience strategy. On the other hand, some of them have none, or only weak, flood defences and the exposed populations are more often subject to flooding with the consequent disruption, economic loss and loss of life. Smith and Ward 1998 showed that rising sea levels will raise flood levels; it is also estimated that the number of people flooded in a typical year by storm surges would increase 6 times and 14 times given a 0.5- and 1.0-m rise in global sea levels, respectively (Nicholls 2004).
2.2.1 Coastal vulnerability indices
Vulnerability indices have been developed as a rapid and consistent method for characterising the relative vulnerability of different areas. The simplest of these are assessments of the physical vulnerability of the area, while the more complex also examine aspects of economic and social vulnerability. A summary of various indices applied globally is given here.
In previous work on coastal vulnerability, approaches were derived from Gornitz (1991), Gornitz and Kanciruk (1989), Thieler and Hammer-Klose (2000) with an index widely applied in the United States and in a modified form in Canada and parts of South Africa. It has also been viewed as important to incorporate social data on people at risk, the most detailed social vulnerability analysis being the synthesis by Boruff et al. (2005), Abuodha and Woodroffe (2007) and Gornitz (1991). The social vulnerability index (SoVI) uses "initially 42 socio-economic variables, reduced to 11 statistically independent factors" (i.e. age, race, ethnicity, education, family structure, social dependence, occupation) (Cutter et al. 2003). This being applied on a coastal county basis in a principal component analysis (PCA) to produce the overall coastal social vulnerability score (CSoVI). The coastal social vulnerability score (CSoVI) is a combination of variables for North America and Australia applied specifically to the beaches. The variables are dune height, barrier type, beach type, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion and accretion, mean tidal range and mean wave height. In 2010, McLaughlin and Cooper developed a multi-scale coastal vulnerability index to investigate the implications of spatial scale in depicting coastal hazard risk, coastal vulnerabilities for national, local authority and site level. The authors in this index referred to coastal erosion vulnerability, either than coastal flood vulnerability. This can be seen in the variables which were used: a coastal characteristics sub-index concerned with the resilience and susceptibility of the coast to erosion, a coastal forcing sub-index to characterise the forcing variables contributing to wave-induced erosion and a socio-economic sub-index to assess the infrastructure potentially at risk. The socio-economic sub-index (McLaughlin and Cooper 2010) comprises 6 variables: population, roads (vital lines of communication and transport), cultural heritage, railways, land use and conservation status. Sharples (2006) uses identification and mapping of coastal substrates and landforms (i.e. geomorphic types) in order to assess coastal vulnerability which has greater or lesser sensitivity to potential coastal impacts of climate change and sea-level rise, such as accelerated erosion and shoreline recession, increased slumping or rock fall hazards, changing dune mobility and other hazards.
2.3 Components of coastal flood vulnerability: the systems approach
The natural river subsystem (NS), in which the physical, chemical and biological processes take place;
The socio-economic subsystem (SES), which includes the societal (human) activities related to the use of the natural river system; socio-economic systems are made up of rules and institutions that mediate human use of resources as well as systems of knowledge and ethics that interpret natural systems from a human perspective (Berkes and Folke 1998; Adger 2006).
The administrative and institutional subsystem that includes administration, legislation and regulation, where the decision, planning and management processes take place.
Each of the three subsystems is characterised by its own elements, and it is surrounded within its own environment. In this paper, the vulnerability system is the coastal city. It can be seen as a set of interconnecting systems; the system is composed of interacting elements where different processes are carried out using various types of resources. In this context, one must define the system through its components and interactions. It should be shown how each element of the system, as well as the individual interactions, is vulnerable. For a better understanding of this paper, the delineation between terminologies is presented.
Hazards have many origins, but in this paper, we normally view them as caused by the interaction between society and natural systems (e.g. precipitations, floods and cyclones). Unexpected hazards become visible rapidly, such as flooding or hurricanes, and last for a small period ranging from hours to weeks. Continuous hazards are very slow events that are barely perceptible by society such as sea-level rise. This paper considers both types of hazards. From the perspective of this research, vulnerability is embedded as a combination of the susceptibility of a given population, system or place to harm from exposure to the hazard and directly affects the ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from hazards and disasters. Resilience speaks to the capacity of the population, system, or place to buffer or adapt to changing hazard exposures.
The natural river system is delimited by climate and (hydro-geological) physical conditions (catchment and coast), the socio-economic system is formed by the demographic, social and economic conditions of the surrounding economies, and the administrative and institutional system is formed and bounded by the constitutional, legal and political system. Coastal floods distress three components of the coastal vulnerability system, each of them belongs to one of the subsystems described here, and their interactions affect the possible short-term and long-term damages. The components can be assessed by different indicators to understand the vulnerability of the system to coastal floods. The system components are hydro-geological, socio-economical and politico-administrative.
2.3.1 Hydro-geological component
The hydro-geological component is a part of the natural river system, being hazard dependent. It comprises hydro-geo-morphological (i.e. sea-level rise, river discharge, soil subsidence) and climatic (i.e. number of cyclones, storm surge) characteristics of the system. This component uses only the exposure indicators, see Eq. 3, because the system, here the city, is characterised from hydro-geological point of view (exposure) and the physical part, infrastructure (resilience), is taken into consideration under the socio-economic and politico-administrative component. The hydro-geological component continues to relate to the interrelation between the environment and the vulnerability associated with this interaction (Villagran de Leon 2006). Developments such as land subsidence, storm surge and high river discharge have enhanced environmental degradation, aggravating effects of climate change and associated sea-level rise, increasing the potential occurrence of floods. In this case, the hydro-geological component does not consider urbanisation and industrialisation as hazard.
2.3.2 Socio-economic component
The socio-economic component is part of the socio-economic system; the flooding affects the day-to-day lives of the population that belongs to the system. The socio component relates to the presence of human beings and encompasses issues related to it, for example deficiencies in mobility of human beings associated with gender, age or disabilities. Coastal floods can cause destruction of houses, disruption in communications, in the agricultural process, or even fatalities. The economic component is related to income or issues which are inherent to economics that are predisposed to being affected. There are many economic activities, which can be negatively affected by coastal flooding. Among them are tourism, fisheries, navigation, industries, agriculture, availability of potable water, etc. This influences the economic prosperity of a community, region, urban area or a country. McLaughlin and Cooper (2010) agreed that the choice of socio-economic variables adds an inherent cultural bias to an index.
2.3.3 Politico-administrative component
The politico-administrative component encompasses the administrative and institutional system. To characterise the administrative and institutional system, the relevant institutions at the national, regional and local level have to be identified. The approach assumes that one or more institutions have the ability and authority to develop and implement plans that will oversee and manage the coordinated development and operation of the actions of the local authorities that affect the coasts. This component embraces the exposure, susceptibility and resilience indicators (see Eq. 6).
The components can be assessed by using different indicators. These components have been linked with the three factors of vulnerability. The index aims to describe flood damage at coastal city level. Consequently, through this identification, decision-makers can make informed choices on how to best allocate resources to ameliorate flood damage in the future.
Understanding the natural processes as well as the economic and social services or functions that coasts fulfil is critical to the successful and sustainable management of these systems.
Considering the coastal system, the NS gives/receives impacts to/from the SES by, that is, the impact of sea-level rise is obvious: more severe storms; while storm surge will decrease a little because of the larger water depths, it will also increase because of the more severe storm activity; tidal prisms will increase, etc. As a result, salt intrusion will increase, structures will be more stressed, and wetlands will be inundated and disappear (Covich 1993). All of these will affect the population along the coasts, which is permanently increasing (Hutchings and Collett 1977). Damage will also occur to agricultural areas because of the additional saltwater intrusion. The cultural heritage will be susceptible to flood (e.g. Venice and the Netherlands).
The coast is affected by human activities such as bank protection, shipping, and construction and operation of hydraulic infrastructures. The coasts provide tangible and direct economic benefits. Tourism and fisheries prosper on the wealth of natural resources coasts supply. The protected coastal waters also support important public infrastructure, serving as harbours and ports vital for shipping, transportation and industry. To maintain and enhance these and other services and benefits derived from coasts, they must be managed.
3 Development of Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index methodology
3.1 Flood vulnerability factors
Societies are vulnerable to floods due to three main factors: exposure, susceptibility and resilience (Balica et al. 2009). The vulnerability of any system (at any scale) is reflective of (or a function of) the exposure and susceptibility of that system to hazardous conditions and the resilience of the system to adapt and/or recover from the effects of those conditions (Smit and Wandel 2006).
Exposure can be understood as the values that are present at the location where floods can occur. These values can be goods, infrastructure, cultural heritage, agricultural fields and people (UN 2003). Exposure is generally described as patterns and processes that estimate its intensity and duration (Balica et al. 2009). Fekete (2009) describes exposure as the measure of susceptible elements within a region threatened by a hazard, while in Penning-Rowsell et al. (2005), exposure is defined as the likelihood that humans and/or physical items (goods, infrastructure, cultural heritage and agricultural fields) will be impacted by flooding. In case of the CCFVI, here exposure is defined as "the predisposition of a system to be disrupted by a flooding event due to its location in the same area of influence".
The concept of susceptibility, or sensitivity, has developed through the years. For example, Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton defined susceptibility in 1977 as the relative damageability of property and materials during floods or other hazardous events. The IPCC (2001) argued susceptibility as the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. At this moment, the definition is still argued and is creating confusion between social and natural scientists.
Susceptibility relates to system characteristics, including the social context of flood damage, especially the awareness and preparedness of people regarding the risk they live with (before the flood), the institutions that are involved in mitigating and reducing the effects of the hazards and the existence of possible measures, like flood hazard maps to be used during the floods.
This paper defines susceptibility as the elements exposed within the system, which influence the probabilities of being harmed at times of hazardous floods.
The ability of individuals and social systems to handle the impact of floods is often correlated with general socio-economic indicators. The susceptibility indicators embrace general information on social relations, institutional development and population with special needs (children, elderly or disabled) (e.g. Blaikie et al. 1994; Watts and Bohle 1993).
Based on Le Chatelier's principle (Hatta 1987), "Any change in status quo prompts an opposing reaction in the responding system". All systems are in hazard, but their vulnerability reflects the possible damages that can be expected in the case of an event. All the components of the system can be affected by floods. After each flooding event, the social system usually becomes stronger and gives feedback to reduce the vulnerability to future floods. A system at risk is more vulnerable when it is more exposed to a hazard and it is more susceptible to its forces and impacts (Fig. 2). However, the system will be less vulnerable when it is more resilient and less exposed.
3.2 Coastal vulnerability indicators
Vulnerability is considered here based on the use of indicators. An indicator, or set of indicators, can be defined as an inherent characteristic that quantitatively estimates the condition of a system; they usually focus on minor, feasible, palpable and telling piece of a system that can offer people a sense of the bigger representation. Therefore, it is very important to know the impacts on the people, cities, natural resources, via the use of these indicators.
The first step in an indicator-based vulnerability assessment is to select appropriate indicators. The standard practice (Gornitz and Kanciruk 1989; Peduzzi et al. 2001; Briguglio 2003; Pratt et al. 2004; Adger and Vincent 2005; Guillaumont 2008) is to assemble a list of indicators using criteria such as suitability, following a conceptual framework or definitions, availability of data and sensitivity to formats, usefulness and ease of recollection.
McLaughlin and Cooper (2010) affirm that it is tempting to use all available data in the creation of an index. Earlier, Dal Cin and Simeoni (1989) claimed that using more numerous variables gave more correct results. This, however, is not necessarily true since variables/indicators can be highly correlated (Balica and Wright 2009).
Since the development of the FVI involves the understanding of different relational situations and characteristics of a coastal system exposed to flood risks, a deductive approach to identify the best possible indicators has been used, based on existing principles and the conceptual framework of vulnerability.
Understanding each concept and considering certain indicators may help to characterise the vulnerability of different systems, by which actions can be identified to decrease it. Every vulnerability factor (exposure, susceptibility and resilience) represents a set of constituent indicators, based on the characteristics of a coastal system, which can help to better understand the response of the coastal cities to floods.
Some of the indicators, in general, belong to two of the factors. Due to the definition in this study, the indicators are considered only for one of the factors. For example, Flood Protection (FP) indicator belongs to resilience factor, as being a positive measure; the method does not consider the Environmental Component where the FP indicator can be a negative measure. The Institutional Organisations (IO) indicator is one of the indicators used to index the politico-administrative component, and from the functional relationship with the vulnerability (Table 4), it can be seen that higher the number of IO, lower the vulnerability. The IO can be included under the susceptibility factor as well, but because of the difficulty in quantifying corruption, this indicator is not considered; the choice is to use it only as resilience indicator.
Relationship between components and factors
Water resources system
Coastal flood vulnerability components
Vulnerability factors
Coastal Flood Vulnerability Indicators
Sea-level rise
The hydro-geological component does not consider susceptibility indicators for this method
The hydro-geological component does not consider resilience indicators for this method
Storm surge
# Cyc
# of cyclones in the last 5 years
River discharge
Foreshore slope
Soil subsidence
km of coastline
Population close to CL
% Disabled
% of disabled persons
Cultural heritage
(<12 and >65 years)
Awareness and preparedness
Growing coastal population
The economic component does not consider susceptibility indicators for this method
km of Drainage
Recovery Time
Uncontrolled planning zones
Flood hazard maps
Institutional organisations
Flood protection
3.3 General flood vulnerability index equation related to coastal cities
A general FVI equation (Eq. 1) for all scales is described by Balica et al. (2009). The equation links the values of all indicators to flood vulnerability components and factors (exposure, susceptibility and resilience), without weighting (Cendrero and Fischer 1997; Peduzzi et al. 2001; Briguglio 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2003). This is done because of different number of rating judgments which "lie behind combined weights", or interpolating.
McLaughlin and Cooper (2010) use Gornitz (1990) approach, a scale of 1–5 is chosen, with 5 contributing most strongly to vulnerability and 1 contributing least. The 1–5 scale that was used for every variable standardises the scoring system and enables variables measured in different units to be combined mathematically.
McLaughlin and Cooper (2010) use the approach of Gornitz and White (1992), which is based on the fact that the "sum of the variables was less sensitive than one based on the products of the variables". This research used the approach of FVI (Balica et al. 2009) (Eq. 2), the approach is based on the fact that each system has its own vulnerability to floods, so a variable cannot be considered zero.
The general formula for FVI is computed by categorising the indicators to the factors to which they belong (exposure (E), susceptibility (S) and resilience (R)) (Cendrero and Fischer 1997). The indicators of exposure and susceptibility are multiplied and then divided by the resilience indicators, because indicators representing exposure and susceptibility increase the flood vulnerability and are therefore placed in the numerator. The resilience indicators decrease flood vulnerability and are thus part of the denominator.
Equations of the coastal city scale for all the system components: the indicators play a gradually more significant policy role; also, they represent only synoptic sides of a system. The first step in an indicator-based vulnerability assessment is to select indicators (Adriaanse 1993; World Bank 1994, 1997; CRED 2010; Perry 2006; Quarantelli 2005; Sorenson and Sorensen 2006; Briguglio 2003; Peduzzi et al. 2001; Hughes and Brundrit 1992); for example, the detailed World Bank Africa Database 2005 consists of almost 1,200 indicators (World Bank 2005). The benchmark is to gather a list of proxies using the following criterion: suitability, definitions or the theoretical structure, availability of data.
Indicators information of the hydro-geological component
Functional relationship with vulnerability
Sea-level rise
How much the level of the sea is increasing in 1 year
Higher SLR, higher vulnerability
Storm surge
A storm surge is the rapid rise in the water level surface produced by onshore hurricane winds and falling barometric pressure.
Bigger increase in WL, higher vulnerability
# of cyclones
Number of cyclones in the last 10 years
Higher # of Cyclones, higher vulnerability
River discharge
Maximum discharge in record of the last 10 years, m3/s
Higher RD, higher vulnerability
Foreshore slope
Foreshore slope and depth of the sea near the coast, can change a lot and often. Average slope of the foreshore beach
Lower slope, higher vulnerability
Soil subsidence
How much the area is decreasing?
Higher areas, higher vulnerability
Kilometres of coastline along the city
Longer CL, higher vulnerability
Indicators information of the socio-economic component
Functional relationship with vulnerability
Cultural heritage
Number of historical buildings, museums, etc., in danger when coastal flood occurs
High # of CH, higher the vulnerability
Population close to coastline
Number of people exposed to coastal hazard
The higher number of people, higher vulnerability
Growing coastal population
% of growth of population in urban areas in the last 10 years
Fast GCP, higher vulnerability, hypothesis is made that fast population growth may create pressing on land subsidence
Number of shelters per km2, including hospitals
Bigger # of S, lower vulnerability
% of disabled persons (<14 and >65)
% of population with any kind of disabilities, also people less 12 and >65 years
Higher %, higher vulnerability
Awareness and preparedness
Are the coastal people aware and prepare for floods? Did they experience any floods in the last 10 years?
Higher # of past floods, more prepare/aware, lower vulnerability
Recovery time
Amount of time needed by the city to recover to a functional operation after coastal flood events
The higher amount of time, the higher vulnerability
km of drainage
km of canalisation in the city
Higher km, low vulnerability
Indicators for the politico-administrative component
Functional relationship with vulnerability
Flood hazard maps
Flood hazard mapping is a vital component for appropriate land use planning in flood-prone areas
Existence of those measures, lower vulnerability
Institutional organisations
Existence of IO
Higher #, lower vulnerability
Uncontrolled planning zone
% of the surrounding coastal area (10 km from the shoreline) is uncontrolled
Higher %, higher vulnerability
Flood protection
The existence of structural measures that physically prevent floods from entering into the city (storage capacity)
If YES, lower vulnerability
Explanation of indicators: the indicator "population close to the coastline" is defined as the number of people exposed to coastal hazards. For example, "population living in the flood-prone area along the coast", "growing coastal population" refers to the percentage growth in population of the urban area, which signifies the economic wealth of the urban area. The indicator "awareness/preparedness" was scaled between 1 and 10, where 1 is given for the area where population has no concern with floods and 10 for the urban area where the population has experienced floods for a long time. Therefore, people must aware of the potential for floods in the area, that is, they have trust in institutions to mitigate the harm of floods, they have flood insurances, they understand the consequences and restrictions of their actions towards flood protection, and they are prepared for emergency situations.
The Drainage (D), Recovery Time (RT) and Growing Coastal Population (GCP) indicators belong to the economic component (Eqs. 5 and 7), and they are associated with the economy state of an area as follows:
Drainage indicator represents the length of canals in the area (in kilometres) and belongs to resilience (i.e. is seen in the denominator in Eq. 5). The indicator has an indirect relation with the vulnerability: the longer the kilometres of drainage, the lower the vulnerability. The drainage indicator reflects the economic state of the area: the higher the number of kilometres of drainage, the richer the region.
The RT indicates the amount of time needed by the city to recover to a functional operation after coastal flood events: longer the time, higher the vulnerability. This indicator belongs to the economic component because it reflects the wealth of an area. Richer states recover faster, due to the higher GDP/cap for example. The RT indicator was scaled between 1 and 10, where 1 means that all economic activities are strongly damaged and they may not recover for many years and 10 means that the economic activities of the region are hardly affected by floods, either in the short or in the long term.
The GCP refers to the percentage growth in population in the urban area which shows the economic wealth of the urban area, and therefore belongs to exposure factor (i.e. is seen at the numerator in Eq. 5). The GCP has a direct relation with the vulnerability: higher the GCP, higher the vulnerability. The GCP is an indicator, which reflects the economic state of an area.
The integrated Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index is a method to combine multiple aspects of a system into one number. On a global perspective, the results will be presented in values between 0 and 1: 1 being the highest vulnerability found in the samples studied and 0 the lowest vulnerability.
4 Application of the CCFVI methodology in order to assess FVI of different deltaic areas, using FVI tool
Example of indicators values for each vulnerability components
Factor of
Definition of indicator
Buenos Aires
Sea-level rise
How much the level of the sea is increasing in 1 year
Storm surge
A storm surge is the rapid rise in the water level surface produced by onshore hurricane winds and falling barometric pressure. Higher storm surge
# of Cyclones
Number of cyclones in the last 10 years
River discharge
Maximum discharge in record of the last 10 years, m3/s
Foreshore slope
Foreshore Slope and depth of the sea near the coast, can change a lot and often. Average slope of the foreshore beach
Soil subsidence
How much the area is decreasing?
Coastal line
Kilometres of coastal line along the city
Cultural heritage
Number of historical buildings, museums, etc., in danger when coastal flood occurs
Population close to coastline
Number of people exposed to coastal hazard
Growing coastal population
% of growth of population in urban areas in the last 10 years
Number of shelters per km2, including hospitals
% of disabled persons (<14 and >65)
% of population with any kind of disabilities, also people less 12 and >65 years
Awareness and preparedness
Are the coastal people aware and prepare for floods? Did they experience any floods in the last 10 years? (Scaled)
Recovery time
Amount of time needed by the city to recover to a functional operation after coastal flood events
km of drainage
km of canalisation in the city
Flood hazard maps
Flood Hazard Mapping is a vital component for appropriate land use planning in flood-prone areas.
Institutional organisations
Existence of IO
Uncontrolled planning zone
% of the surrounding coastal area (10 km from the shoreline) is uncontrolled
Flood protection
The existence of structural measures that physically prevent floods from entering into the city (Storage capacity)
4.1 Data sources
- 1.
Casablanca "Academie de l'eau", the website of Environmental Ministry of France and "Gouvernement du Royaume du Morocco", the website of Government of Morocco and the International Federation of Red Cross for floods in Morocco.
- 2.
For Calcutta, various sources were consulted, the Department of Natural Resources, Weather Underground India, Webster et al. (2005), World FactBook (database developed by the CIA with basic information on all the countries in the world), World Bank, UNICEF India, ADB Asian Development Bank, Megaessays (source for high-quality essays on a wide range of subjects), Debasri et al. (1995), GIS Development of India, Ministry Water Resources India.
- 3.
For Dhaka: World Bank, HighBeam research, World FactBook were used.
- 4.
For Manila, the website of PAGASA, Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, the article of Zoleta-Nantes (1999), ICHARM and Connor and Hiroki (2005) were used.
- 5.
Buenos Aires. AIACC, Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change, Academie de l'eau, Bnamericas (the leading source of business information in Latin America) were the sources.
- 6.
For Osaka city: Kawai et al. (2008), Japan River Organisation, Kadoya et al. (1993), MLIT website (Ministry of Land, Industry and Transport), ICHARM.
- 7.
For the city of Marseille, the Academie de l'eau website, Marseille Municipality and the Water Resources eAtlas (an electronic Atlas developed by IUCN, IWMI, Ramsar and WRI) website were used.
- 8.
For Shanghai, the Yazhi River Committee, UNESCAP data sources were taken into consideration.
- 9.
The results of the CCFVIs for all components and the total CCFVI are summarised below and easily computed using the FVI tool, unesco-ihe-fvi.org (Balica and Wright 2009) for coastal cities.
4.2 The hydro-geological component
When examining the hydro-geological exposure, it can be seen that Shanghai is the most exposed to coastal floods. This is mainly due to its high length of coastline and the high value of river discharge. Following vulnerable city is Manila, largely due to its exposure to tropical cyclones and flooding. The recent tropical storm Typhoon Ketsana in 2009 illustrates this exposure of Manila and the surrounding area to environmental threats. With flood waters reaching nearly 7 m a.s.l in some city areas (WWF 2009) and hundreds of deaths during this one storm, Manila is highly vulnerable. Dhaka and Calcutta come next largely because of their storm surge, coastal line length and river discharge. Rotterdam city is situated on the fifth place, with a very high soil subsidence and a high Rhine river discharge. The city of Buenos Aires ranks the sixth, with a very high river discharge value but very low amount of kms of coastline, storm surge, number of cyclones. Marseille and Osaka are coming close in the rank as seven and eight. The least vulnerable from all the examples is Casablanca with small number of cyclones in the last 10 years, few kms along the coast and no river discharge. However, this is not implying that the city is not vulnerable to coastal floods. All these cities have already been subjects of coastal floods with loss of life and significant damage costs.
4.2.1 The social component
4.2.2 The economic component
4.2.3 The politico-administrative component
4.2.4 The Overall Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index
The advantage of the index is that one can clearly compare vulnerabilities of cities. Poor cities may wish to compare their position relative to rich cities. The CCFVI can be used as a network of knowledge to learn from each other and to increase the resilience of delta cities worldwide through the knowledge given by delta alliances. Publishing the component parts of the Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index can show where progress needs to be prioritised. The focus of publishing the article is rather hydro-geological and socio-economic than political.
The CCFVI model can give a simplified way of characterising what in reality is a very complex system. Such results will help to give an indication of whether a system is resilient, susceptible or exposed to flooding risks and help identify which measures would reap the best return on investment under a changing climate and population and development expansion. The important point is that such a model is used as one tool among others within the whole process of deciding on a roadmap for flood assessment.
On the other hand, the method has weaknesses: the index-based technique presents vulnerability over a short period of time. Currently, the FVI method is not capable of encapsulating temporal changes; the CCFVI model is a simplification of reality and its application should be compensated with thorough knowledge and expertise-based analysis. The difficulties that the quantification of social and political-administrative indicators, as well as availability of other indicators, poses to the calculation may constitute a considerable weakness of the model.
Another potential weakness is the soundness of it underlying assumptions. For the CCFVI to be accepted by a wide range of stakeholders, the underlying assumptions for each indicator would need to be explained. The danger in using these types of indices is that stakeholders feel a loss of control and may feel it is just a black box churning out results. A way to overcome this is to involve stakeholders in the developments and in the weighting of the indicators.
It is also a simplified version of reality without capturing the interconnectedness of several indicators and potentially ignoring important local specificities.
5 Climate change impacts on CCFVI indicators and consequently on CCFVI
An indicator-based methodology such as the one outlined here can be used to study the impact of future changes on vulnerability. The indicators express the natural resources, the people and the economic state of the city. Therefore, it is very important to know the impacts on the people, cities, natural resources, via the use of these indicators.
In particular, it can be used to study the impact of climate change and this is presented below. In order to do this, a number of assumptions about the impact of climate change on the relevant indicators have to be made.
The following hydro-geological indicators reflecting climate change projections were chosen: sea-level rise (Gornitz 2001), increasing number of cyclones, higher river discharges and increased storm surge and soil subsidence. The impact of climate change to the social component is reflected in the following indicators: population close to coastline and awareness/preparedness. The indicator "Population close to coastline (UNFPA 2011a)" will be affected by climate change owing to high population areas that are presently concentrated near the coastline (OCDE 2007; Jian 2008); if population growth will increase, the evacuation of vulnerable populations living in these high-risk areas during coastal floods will pose serious problems.
Climate change will have an impact on the awareness/preparedness indicator. UNEP (2006) presents the importance of communicating with the general public and engaging stakeholders about climate change. Already, educational and public awareness programmes on climate change were developed and implemented (Russia, Kenya, Albania, Cambodia, etc.)
Public awareness aims at early results and is often pursued via the media and outreach campaigns. It is also pursued via education at a more profound, long-term change in habits, particularly among the young. NGOs and journalists can be helpful allies in promoting climate change awareness because of their role as intermediaries with their own widespread networks for outreach. Climate change should worry everybody, but in truth some people will feel more concerned than others because they face particular risks (coastal flooding).
In the present study, we assume that the economic component will be impacted by climate change only by one indicator, growing coastal population.
Rapid growing population is occurring in coastal cities all over the world. Severe flooding regularly destroys coastal regions, particularly when storm surges and high river flows occur simultaneously. Large coastal cities are particularly at risk from rising sea levels, storms and storm surges, and other aspects of climate change (Fuchs 2010; Glade 2003; Harley et al. 2006). The densely populated deltas and other low-lying coastal cities are recognised in the IPCC FAR, 2007 as "key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability" with lots of people potentially affected.
Only recently, local governments and the international development community have seriously begun to consider the implications of climate change on rapidly growing coastal populations and infrastructure. UNEP (2006) and IPCC (2007a, b) and their partners initiate programmes to assist coordinated action among scientists, policymakers and the public to support impact and vulnerability assessments, awareness raising about climate change risks and integration of scientific information about impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation into planning and policy for the affected areas.
It is assumed that the politico-administrative component will not change under climate change impacts. As seen, the political-administrative component comprises four indicators: Flood Hazard Maps, Institutional Organisations, Uncontrolled Planning Zone and Flood Protection. Each of these indicators expresses somehow the political-administrative situation of a coastal area. None of them refers directly to politicians, but to their decisions on investments, etc. Based on the lack of quantification of the relevant indicators by 2100, this component was not analysed. As explained, climate change is one of the major drivers of discussions on behaviour and adaptation measures.
5.1 Scenarios of sea-level rise, now: 2100 (UNEP 1995; IPCC 2007a, b)
Based on the ranges in the estimate of climate sensitivity and ice melt parameters, and the full set of IS92 emission scenarios, the models predict an increase in global mean sea level of between 13 and 94 cm and also an increase in soil subsidency between 1,400 and 34,000 km2 (horizontal) for the selected case studies. Webster et al. (2005), IPCC (2007a, b) evaluated the increased number of the cyclones and increased number of storm surge, using numerical simulation, and predicted that by 2100 the number and the intensity of cyclones will increase between 10 and 20 %. The river discharges will also increase (Jian 2008), and here it is assumed, based on the IPCC report (IPCC 2007a, b), that the river discharge will double for all case studies in the worst-case scenario.1
Two scenarios were used for the hydro-geological component (according to Fig. 3). The first scenario is termed the "best-case scenario" and assumes that the indicators impacted by climate change increase by 20–50 % dependent on city location and taking into consideration the values assumed in the literature. In the second scenario, termed the "worst-case scenario", the indicators are assumed to have the highest values found in the literature for each case study. For some cities such as Casablanca and Marseille, they were assumed to be doubled.
It can be noted that the component of vulnerability most impacted by climate change is the economic component with high increases in the 2100 results: 6.5–177 times the 2009 values. However, due to low 2009 values for economic component, the overall 2100 raw results will be influenced in the same way for all the components (see Fig. 10).
Also by 2100, it can be seen that the vulnerability of Manila will increase by 2.0, followed by Osaka (1.7), Casablanca (1.5), Rotterdam and Calcutta (1.4), the cities of Dhaka and Marseille will increase by 1.3, Shanghai (1.27) and Buenos Aires (1.2) will increase the least from the nine cities studied. The numbers represent the ratio between worst-case scenario and baseline. The position of the city in the rank will not change directly with the increase.
Total FVI, ranking of coastal cities for different scenarios
2009 Baseline
2100 Best scenario
2100 Worst scenario
Coastal cities total FVI ranking
Buenos Aires
6 Discussion on managing coastal cities throughout CCFVI tool (http://unesco-ihe-fvi.org)
There can be no analysis or assessment of flood and risk management and adaptation measures without, first, understanding correctly the concept of vulnerability. Vulnerability is an analysing element of exposure, susceptibility and resilience of any coastal system at hazard. Vulnerability index captures a zooming in view, which helps in assessing aspects that might have been neglected by traditional approach to assess or analyse risk so far. As another argument to assess and index vulnerability is the requirements of the European Floods Directive 2007/60/EC and the "Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015". Therefore, not only politicians, but also decision-makers need such indices, the standardised vulnerability indices are helping in assessing and monitoring the "elements at risk" (Merz et al. 2007). This need, the indices, involves a range of subjective decisions, the choice of indicators for example, but if the vulnerability concept is well defined and clarified, the evaluation and interpretation of composite indices will bring us the understanding of where to mitigate risk and where to focus investments. Still there is no standardised way to measure vulnerability (Bohle et al. 1994), and the measurement depends on each hazard that occurs, its frequency and its intensity.
The methodology used in this article is based on sets of indicators for different vulnerability factors and coastal system components, focusing on coastal floods. Selected indicators (19) have been used to quantify flood vulnerability of coastal cities. In the CCFVI approach, the indicators were normalised separately using predefined minimum and maximum values to facilitate easily comparison between case studies and to provide one single and comparable value. The final Coastal City Flood Vulnerability component values are therefore between 0 and 1. However, in order to present consistent final results of climate change impact scenarios, the raw results are shown.
Since the methodology is based on indicators, its main weakness is the accuracy of the data on which it is based. For the results to be valid, all data must be derived from reliable sources (see Sect. 3.3). This approach allows for relative comparisons to be made between urban areas irrespective of uncertainties. In this way, proposed measures can be prioritised for urban areas that are at greatest risk. Uncertainty is not removed, but is integrated into the assessment. While a level of uncertainty is inherent in CCFVI, its use in operational flood risk management is useful for policy and decision-makers in terms of prioritising investments and formulating adaptation plans. It also offers a more transparent means of prioritising, which is inevitably a highly political process. It may also be considered a means to steer flood management policy in a more sustainable direction. As individual information is lost in the aggregation process, it needs to be retrieved by a more in-depth analysis of each process in order to design policies and their implementation measures. For example, the magnitude of impact of different factors and of each indicator on the CCFVI needs to be well understood.
It is worth underlining that the CCFVI is a flexible tool: it can be used to create different "scenarios" by changing one or more indicators and can be tailored on different situations and areas, since the principle "one size fits all" cannot be applied to vulnerabilities present in complex and dynamic realities.
Another weakness of the method, the unevenness of the indicators, has two main consequences. Firstly, the indices calculated by the model are distorted. Components with more indicators are more reliable than components with few indicators on this level. Components with few or no indicators are not well represented. Furthermore, the components with few indicators are less reliable. This is due to the occurrence that a large variation in one variable has a larger influence on the calculated index. The second main consequence of the unequal distribution of indicators is on the feasibility of calculating the index of a certain component. If more indicators are available, the user of the model can choose the indicators according to the information that is most readily available making the model more feasible.
To improve the model, the number of indicators would need to be increased in the areas with fewer indicators at the moment. Preferably, these indicators would coincide with information that most governing bodies are already collecting in order to increase the ease of use of the model.
The CCFVI can be used as an effective tool to assist decision-makers in evaluating the impacts of different scenarios. A quantification of coastal flood vulnerability is the CCFVI, a non-structural measure (more in the interest of general public, policy and decision-makers, re/insuring companies), the index can be incorporated into the Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy.
The CCFVI can also be used as a toolkit to assess and manage the coastal flood vulnerability and this way to facilitate adaptation and coping capacities. The CCFVI methodology is at the base of a network of knowledge, among the flood vulnerability index methodology (unesco-ihe-fvi.org), which is an automated calculation of a CCFVI implemented through a web management interface (PHP) that enhances the ability of decision-makers to strategically guide investment (Balica and Wright 2009). The network of knowledge can be used between different institutions, universities and non-governmental organisations with the purpose to encourage collaboration between the members of the network on managing coastal flood vulnerability information and also promoting further studies on flood risk assessment at smaller scales. The CCFVI can help in converting knowledge into actions: to assess/index the coastal flood vulnerability in different regions of the world, but also in less well-served ones, data scarce areas, by following an integrated approach; raise coastal flood vulnerability awareness; save lives, reduce economic, environmental losses; and distribute the financial burden better.
Other future developments work in two ways. Firstly, increasing populations are likely to increase the vulnerability to flooding owing to increased inhabitation of flood-prone areas (Saalmueller, n.d.). Populations are likely to expand into areas that are currently covered by natural vegetation (Marcoux 2000; DeFries et al. 2010) and the densities of urban environments already within flood plains and coastal areas are likely to increase (UNFPA 2011b).
On the other hand, the vulnerability could decrease due to development which could lower susceptibility indicators such as increased awareness and education (IIASA 2008). Other resilience indicators could also improve due to public investments in (protective) infrastructure and increased institutional capacity as countries develop.
7 Conclusions
CCFVI methodology and use The use of the CCFVI can make inhabitants and governments aware of vulnerability in their area. With the CCFVI, the impacts can be predicted in different scenarios. In this way, it helps policymakers and water authorities to define what measurements should be taken. CCFVI is a powerful tool for mapping of vulnerable areas within the cities. Thus, the correct use of CCFVI can help policymakers and urban planners in making decisions with regard to development in specific areas and possible funding allocation for adaptation and reduction of flood vulnerability in urban areas. The continuous monitoring of the CCFVI for particular urban areas may also show a trend in the development of the area over time and will also give tangible information for preparation in case of flooding. Thus, the CCFVI is necessary, but not sufficient for decision-making. The CCFVI has to be used in combination with other decision-making tools, which include participatory methods with the population of areas identified as vulnerable and expert judgment. The CCFVI can be used with a team of multidisciplinary thematic specialists and representatives of society, all knowledgeable on the site and specifically on a smaller geographical unit, to discuss the most relevant factors explaining exposure, and especially susceptibility and resilience.
CCFVI baseline results In comparing the cities, Shanghai came out as the most vulnerable to coastal floods. Rotterdam (the Netherlands) and Osaka (Japan) were the least vulnerable to floods. The poorest cities have a very low resilience to floods, are the most exposed socially and have weak institutional organisations.
Climate change impacts on the CCFVI Climate change is expected to impact the urban coastal delta in various and diverse ways. The hydro-geological component is clearly one of these by definition. However, other components are also affected. The social component shows that the social vulnerability to floods of Shanghai, Dhaka and Manila will double by 2100. The population close to the coastline and the number of cultural heritages exposed to floods will increase, so there is an urgent need for action towards adaptation measures by raising the anticipatory mentality of local population. The third component affected is the economic component which is more sensitive. By 2100, the economic vulnerability of the delta cities will increase drastically. Actions must be undertaken to protect them in order to reduce their vulnerability to floods. Collaboration between delta cities' administrations, multiple stakeholders and organisations at international level (delta alliances) has to be undertaken to support the most vulnerable areas and to learn from each other. The use of CCFVI and climate change scenarios offers the opportunity to get a broad overview on components affected and on possible adaptation options that could be applied, directing resources at more in-depth investigation of the most promising adaptation strategies. At a later stage, it can also serve to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures.
The first author acknowledges support from the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, the Huygens Programme of the Government of the Netherlands and Rijkwaterstaat. The help and support provided by Dr Rosh Ranasinghe (TU Delft and UNESCO-IHE) is highly appreciated. We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve the manuscript.
Open Access
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If you've Zumba'd and kettle bell'd yourself down a few sizes and the mirror is still not offering the reflection you'd like to see, how about body sculpting with the help of cosmetic surgery? According to the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, the demand for cosmetic surgery procedures increased almost 9 percent last year. And the most common areas of concern for female patients? In their practice at West County Plastic Surgeons of Washington University, Drs. Terry Myckatyn and Marissa Tenenbaum hear "breast and tummies" most often. "The No. 1 complaint, after breast size or shape, would be the stomach," says Tenenbaum. "Especially after childbirth, women notice a pouch, extra skin or stretch marks that appeared during pregnancy and did not improve afterward."
Liposuction or abdominoplasty (better known as a tummy tuck) can help correct these concerns. "One of the most important considerations is determining which procedure would be the most beneficial," Tenenbaum explains. The determining factor, she adds, is how much excess skin a patient has. "People sometimes think it's all fat. They'll grab their tummy and say, I just want to get rid of this fat! While they are grabbing some fat, there also is redundant skin, and liposuction alone isn't going to get rid of the skin." Tenenbaum cautions that, despite the claims in some advertising, there is no way to actually tighten the skin with liposuction alone. Another advantage to a tummy tuck, she notes, is the opportunity to tighten the abdominal wall. "The muscles that get stretched can be tightened up, making the stomach appear much flatter."
Women who are considering cosmetic surgery of the breast also have procedural options, Myckatyn says, depending on the complaint. "Some patients tell us I don't want them larger, I just want them 'up.' In a youthful, so-called ideal breast shape, the nipple would be a little above the lower breast crease," he explains. "With age, gravity and weight fluctuation, the nipple descends and drops below that crease. In a breast lift (mastopexy), the nipple is repositioned in a more youthful position."
Although a breast lift may achieve the desired results, it's important for a surgeon to ask the right questions, Myckatyn notes. "We use photos and diagrams to get a better understanding of what a patient is looking for. Sometimes a breast lift will get the look you want. But sometimes a patient may think they just need a breast lift, but what they really want to achieve is more fullness. In that case, a breast augmentation is the correct choice." For some patients, he adds, the two procedures can be combined.
In addition to cosmetic surgery of the breast, the surgeons also perform reconstructive surgery for cancer patients, as well as revision surgery for women who are not satisfied with results of previous procedures," Tenenbaum says. "Having so much experience in both has made us better." LN
On the cover: West County Plastic Surgeons of Washington University offers experienced cosmetic surgery for men and women. Conveniently located at 1040 N. Mason Road in Creve Coeur, the facility provides personalized treatment in a patient-friendly atmosphere. For more information, call 996-8800 or visit westcountyplasticsurgeons.wustl.edu.
Cover photo by taka yanagimoto


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Milk and juice cartons
Recycle in your existing, city or town-approved recycling bin, cart, or box.
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Released: August 14, 2015
The word "Worship" gets thrown around a lot in porn. Just because a girl is sucking dick, she's "worshipping" it? We don't think so. When this scene opens, Star Armani is getting ready for a hot date. She's putting on her makeup and lipstick, admiring her sexy body in the mirror.