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Events in Venezuela
I have seen a number of interesting stories on Venezuela this week. First was:
With petroleum prices down around $71 a barrel from a high of $147 the Venezuelan government is struggling to make up for the revenue shortfall to save programs that placate the poor by providing cheap food, fuel and other government giveaways.
Making matters worse, the once mighty Venezuelan petroleum industry has been laid low by politicization, corruption and mismanagement; rather than producing 3.3 million barrels per day, industry analysts believe the production is closer to 2.3 million. Instead of maximizing profits by producing its quota, Venezuela's state-run oil fields are either underperforming or have collapsed altogether.
I have warned numerous times about the risks Chavez was taking by siphoning off oil revenues to fund other programs. If you are going to do that, you must do is to make sure you aren't siphoning off too much, as the oil industry is capital intensive. If you pull out too much, then you kill the goose laying the golden eggs. Norway has a very successful model for how the oil industry can be used to benefit society as a whole. One thing they didn't do was siphon off all of the oil companies' revenues.
But because reelection is coming up, don't expect Chavez to shift course:
Venezuela's Devaluation a Boon for PDVSA in Short Term
Venezuela's currency devaluation should give state oil company PdVSA an immediate and much-needed boost to its budget. But President Hugo Chavez is likely to procure a large part of that windfall for social spending ahead of this year's congressional elections.
Then there was the story about Chavez searching for scapegoats when his decisions start to have consequences:
Chavez sacks energy minister after rolling blackouts
Venezuela President Hugo Chavez has indefinitely suspended rolling blackouts in capital city Caracas just a day after they began, and sacked his electricity minister.
Chavez said that the minister was responsible for mistakes in the way the rationing plan was applied.
Mr Chavez's announcements were a significant strategic shift in his attempts to prevent a widespread power collapse in the coming months through rolling blackouts of up to four hours a day across the country.
But no worries. He believes that after stealing the assets of oil companies, he can invite them back in and they will come running:
Venezuela Expects $8.3 Billion Field Investment, Universal Says
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Venezuela's state oil company, said it expects bids today totaling $8.3 billion to develop the Mariscal Sucre offshore natural-gas project, daily El Universal reported.
The company known as PDVSA seeks partners to take stakes of as much as 40 percent in the project, Eulogio del Pino, vice president for exploration and production, told the Caracas-based newspaper.
PDVSA and the Energy Ministry asked companies including Russia's OAO Gazprom, Norway's Statoil ASA and Japan's Mitsubishi Corp. to participate in the bidding, del Pino said.
I don't know. I will be surprised if these companies trust Chavez enough to put serious money down on any of these projects. As he has shown before, if the profits start to look good, he will change the terms. Who wants to take risk only to let Chavez reap the reward? On the other hand, these aren't the same companies Chavez cheated the first time around, so maybe they will be a little more trusting. But if so and they lose their investment, shareholders shouldn't be the least bit surprised.
Is Venezuela's Stagflation the Beginning of the End for Chavez?
I am just finishing up Biofuel Contenders, and should have that up later today or first thing tomorrow. Until then, a topical post from the latest from Money Morning, which as I previously explained will be featured here whenever they have relevant material to offer. As always, normal caveats apply: I am not an investment advisor. I don't endorse any specific stocks mentioned in the following story nor the ad at the end of the story.
Is Venezuela's Stagflation the Beginning of the End for Chavez?
By Jason Simpkins
Managing Editor – Money Morning
It wasn't long ago that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's decision to nationalize state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) resulted in a failed coup that very nearly cost him his post.
Now, Chavez's aggressive economic policies are again being called into question, this time as the country slides into what could be a protracted period of stagflation, which is defined by the exasperating mixture of torpid economic growth and high inflation.
Before that, however, the period from 2004-2007 was marked by rapid economic growth – punctuated by a miraculous 19.42% burst in 2004. Since that time, unfortunately, Venezuelans have watched as their standard of living was slowly eroded by restrictive price controls, rapid inflation, unsustainable public spending, and widespread nationalizations that have put a stranglehold on industry.
Even as these problems festered, an unprecedented surge in oil prices allowed Chavez to maintain his questionable – and ultimately unsustainable – economic policies. When the bull market in commodities abruptly stalled last year, Venezuela's economy lumbered to a stop.
Venezuela's economy grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2009. Then – for the first time in more than five years – that country's economy contracted, shrinking 2.4% in the second quarter.
Unfortunately for Venezuela, the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) did little to quell surging inflation. The annual rate of inflation climbed to 26.2% in July, according to the Central Bank of Venezuela. Many foreign sources have it higher.
President Chavez insists his country is not in the midst of a financial crisis, but analysts believe this is just the beginning of a bad-news saga that will trip up a country whose heavy-handed economic policies have made it few friends.
"To sum up, we could say that such scenario of stagflation has two basic components," Orlando Ochoa, an economist and professor with Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), told El Universal. "On the one hand, price control, exchange control, nationalizations and restricted distribution of foreign currency damage supply. On the other hand, lower oil prices curtail revenues and have an impact on demand."
Going forward, Venezuela's currency controls are perhaps the biggest hurdle for the economy to overcome. Chavez and his cabinet have said they are preparing to announce measures to stimulate the economy, but that may not be enough.
The problems that come with over-reliance on oil and a vast net of unwieldy social programs and the cost burden of nationalized industry aren't going anywhere. And the nation's other obstacle – the gap between its official and parallel exchange rates – won't be addressed until at least the end of September.
An Unparalleled Problem
Indeed, the problems facing Venezuela are many. But President Chavez and his cabinet believe they have the solution.
"There is a remedy," Venezuelan Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez said in an interview broadcast on state television. "The differential between the official dollar and the [so-called] 'parallel dollar' can be reduced."
Rodriguez was referring to the difference between the country's "official" exchange rate – which remains at 2.15 bolivars per U.S. dollar – and the so-called "parallel market," which suggests a rate of about 6.5 bolivars per U.S. dollar.
The official exchange rate of 2.15 bolivars per U.S. dollar was arrived at in 2003, when Chavez imposed currency controls that force Venezuelans who want to import goods to apply for a government permit. Importers that are unable to get permits to buy currency at the official exchange rate have been forced to turn to the parallel market, where they pay three times the official price.
The problem now is that a large drop in oil revenue has sharply reduced the amount of dollars the government has available to exchange. That has driven more importers to the pricier parallel market. Some have stopped importing entirely.
With limited access to imports, Venezuela's manufacturing sector contracted by 8.5% in the second quarter.
"The manufacturing sector is going to have a negative performance, mostly because of the restriction in imports and dollars, which has caused a drop in the supply of primary materials," Miguel Carpio, an economist at Banco Federal CA in Caracas, told Bloomberg News. "Add to that the drop in consumption, and this is going to be a very difficult year."
Now, with the threat of stagflation looming large, Chavez has no choice but to take action. But economists are unsure of what the government will do.
Few analysts expect the government to order an outright devaluation, because it would push inflation beyond the 28% annual rate. (Venezuela last devalued the official rate in 2005, weakening the currency by 11%.)
Instead, the government could try to lower the parallel rate by issuing dollar-denominated debt, by creating a second, separate exchange rate for "necessary" industries, or by doing both those things.
Traditionally, the government chooses to subsidize certain favorite industries – mainly heavy machinery, foodstuffs and medicines – by allowing them to trade bolivars at the official rate and driving other non-essential goods producers to the parallel market.
This could be taken a step further by imposing a tax on lower priority industries seeking dollars at the official exchange rate, Russ Dallen, head trader at Caracas Capital Markets, said in a research note. Or the government could simply create multiple "official" rates for different industries. Venezuela may create four different exchange rates to help the government deal with a drop in oil revenue.
"This complicated system, if implemented, would satisfy the requirements of the government of pretending not to have a formal devaluation of the exchange rate," Dallen said.
Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) said in an Aug. 28 report that it expects the government to avoid devaluating its currency by selling dollar-denominated debt to the parallel market. In 2008, after an aggressive sale of dollar-denominated bonds, the administration was able to bring down the parallel rate to around 3 bolivars.
Ultimately, it's Chavez – who opened the door to speculation in August by saying he would "restore balance" to the parallel rate – who will decide what to do about his country's quandary. But he won't be making a decision until later this month.
"Is there going to be an adjustment? I can't respond to that right now," Chavez said Sunday at the presidential palace in Caracas. "If any adjustment comes, it will be in September, towards the end of the month."
But whatever Chavez decides to do, his remedy is likely to fall short, analysts say. That's because the parallel rate is not the problem – it's actually a symptom of flawed economic principles. The restrictive price-and-exchange-rate controls, government expansion, and political obtuseness that Chavez has made the cornerstones of his economic policy will continue to conspire against Venezuela until there is reform.
"We always said the situation was only tenable for the government if oil prices not only remained high, but also rose constantly. But that has not happened, and the fall in oil income is now clearly in evidence," UCAB's Ochoa told Inter Press Service News Agency. "That's the first factor contributing to stagflation, to which are added price and exchange controls and restrictions on hard currency availability, which harm supply and investment, and thirdly, the policy of nationalization."
Venezuela's Crude Oil Slick
In the years leading up to the financial crisis, Chavez used PDVSA's growing revenue to finance large social programs, as well as the nationalization of other industries.
Spending on social programs soared 340% from 2000-2005, according to the Center for Economic and Policy Research. It rose even higher as oil prices soared into 2008, boosting purchase orders and fueling a spending spree among even the poorest Venezuelans.
But since the financial crisis eviscerated commodities prices, Venezuela's oil bounty has all but evaporated. Oil brought in $22.8 billion in the first six months of 2009. That's less than half of the $52 billion it brought in during the first half of last year. For 2008 as a whole, oil generated about $90 billion in revenue for Venezuela.
Meanwhile, FONDEN – Venezuela's development fund – has already committed all but $3 billion of the nearly $20 billion it had available at the end of January, as the government used most of the money in the first half of the year to sustain fiscal spending.
And while Venezuelan oil traded at an average of $53 a barrel in the second quarter, up from $40 a barrel in the first three months of 2009, that's still a far cry from last year's levels.
That means borrowing has had to rise to compensate for the decline in revenue. Venezuela's domestic debt jumped 44% during the first half of the year to $20.42 billion from $14 billion at the end of 2008.
"Public spending keeps rising and is financed by more public debt, which increases spending in a vicious circle, while the government defers or postpones workers' demands, which is itself another sign of the approaching recession, although the government seeks to deny it," economist Domingo Maza Zavala, a former head of the Central Bank told the IPS.
Calculations based on official figures suggest domestic and foreign debt repayments will total about $19.6 billion between the second half of this year and 2011, the Latin American Herald Tribune reported. Roughly $10 billion of that total will be due on foreign debt, with the remaining $9.6 billion destined for the domestic account. Total state debt is estimated at $50.3 billion.
What's the government figures don't include is the cost of compensating private companies that have been taken over or bought out under Chavez's nationalizations and expropriations.
Chavez's government earlier this year seized the assets of more than 70 foreign and domestic oil service companies after conflict erupted over nearly $14 billion in debt owed by PDVSA.
PDVSA demanded that service companies accept a 40% cut in their bills; when they refused, the Venezuelan government seized at least 12 drilling rigs, more than 30 oil terminals, and about 300 boats.
The demonstration was a pointed reminder of a 2007 incident, which is still playing out in the international courts. Two years ago, Venezuela forced six oil majors to hand over equity stakes of 60% or more to PDVSA. However, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Conoco Phillips (NYSE: COP) opted to walk away from their contracts rather than accept a minority role.
This conflict is still being disputed, and last year Exxon won a court order to freeze $12 billion in assets from PDVSA as compensation for its lost projects. Additionally, Chavez's heavy-handed policy has cost the country untold billions worth of oil-related investments, as many oil majors now refuse to operate there
"There is the uncertain outlook over how the extensive nationalization pursued over the past 12 years will pan out," Alvise Marino, an analyst at Ideaglobal, told The Wall Street Journal. "Based on the government's unimpressive track record on the economic management front, we tend to take a less-than-optimistic view."
The Colombia Conundrum
In addition to alienating foreign oil majors, Chavez has also sequestered Venezuela from many of its neighbors, especially Colombia. Chavez has ordered his country to prepare for an outright "rupture of relations" with Colombia after that country gave the United States permission to use its military bases.
The United States says access to the bases will help it fight drug trafficking, but Chavez has his own theory. He says American use of the bases could be used as a launch point for an invasion of his oil rich nation.
"Those seven military bases are a declaration of war," Chavez said last week. "We must prepare for the rupture in relations with Colombia. There is no possibility of a return [to normal relations] with Colombia, an embrace."
However, cutting off ties with Colombia poses yet another economic hurdle for the Venezuelan economy to overcome. Colombia provided about $6 billion in products to Venezuela in 2008, or about 15% of Venezuela's total imports, according to Venezuela's government statistics institute INE.
In fact, when Chavez closed the border for three days in 2006, there was shortage of food in Venezuela. Chavez can turn to other South American countries, but his credit extends only so far.
"Nobody wants to sell to Venezuela if payment isn't made in advance," José Rozo, president of Fedecámaras Táchira, the region's main business association, told the Latin American Herald Tribune.
About 70% of trade activity in Venezuela depends on imports from Colombia, Rozo said, adding that the only country that had been willing to export on credit had been Colombia.
Without Colombia, Venezuela will have to settle for trade terms that heavily favor its partners.
For instance, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made a visit to Venezuela last month, and signed no less than 22 accords. Virtually all of the deals were in Argentine's favor, the Tribune reported.
"We're going to drive a horse and cart through all the regulations if they want to do business with us," an Argentine official told the paper prior to the signing of the deals. "Prompt payment. Simple procedures. Fewer controls. Less bureaucracy. No delays. Hard currency. I'll tell you the rest when I've thought of them."
That means if Venezuela wants to keep doing business with Argentina, it's going to have to pay more.
And that will fuel inflation.
"The cost of purchasing in Argentina is higher, and that means that prices will be higher in Venezuela," Abelardo Daza, an economics professor at Caracas-based IESA business school, told The Journal.
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Venezuela's Slide Continues
At this point, you have to wonder who in their right mind will ever do business in Venezuela again as long as Chavez is in power. The risk that Chavez will steal your property is simply too great. During his administration, Chavez has seized phone companies, electric utilities, private real estate (just this week he ordered seizure of a private shopping mall), oil field investments, mines, steel plants, food processing plants, farms, (shades of Mugabe) and cement plants – to name a few.
Now this week he has stolen the assets of oil field services companies:
Venezuela Seen Paying Price for Chavez Expropriation of Oil Contractors
In the wake of the seizure of foreign and domestic oil service companies and assets by armed troops following the orders of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, experts began to count the cost to Venezuela — which holds the Western Hemisphere's largest oil reserves — in lost oil production, lost jobs, lost foreign investment and lost foreign expertise.
This one is ironic, because he was "forced" to seize these assets based on his miscalculations on his previous thefts. Let me explain. In 2007, when oil prices were rising, the heavy oil investments of ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips (Full disclosure: My former employer) finally began to pay off. It is very expensive to extract and process the heavy oil from the Orinoco Belt in Venezuela. It requires a lot of capital investment and significant expertise, but it also doesn't pay off until oil prices rise. But when oil prices did rise and Chavez saw the goose start to lay golden eggs, he decided to seize the goose for himself. The problem is that Chavez doesn't know how to care for a goose, so what has happened in the wake of these seizures should come as no surprise.
It was bad enough that oil production has fallen sharply under the Chavez regime. The reasons for that are simple enough, and have been covered here before. In a nutshell, the issue is this: It takes a lot of capital to maintain the heavy oil business, and Chavez was siphoning off profits to pay for his social programs. Now some (extreme-leftist) people might think that's just great, but the only reason any money was there to siphon off was due to the high investments to begin with. By not reinvesting back into the business, Chavez set the stage for the plunging oil production we see now – but now the goose is on life-support so there will no longer be money for those social programs.
Much higher oil prices for a while dampened the blow of falling production, but once oil prices started to fall, plunging revenues became a real problem. You would think he would have saved some money for a rainy day, but he is just like that irresponsible person who spends their entire paycheck every week, no matter how much money they make. Although I guess you don't have to save for a rainy day if you are willing to just rob a bank when the rainy day comes.
But first, he had the bright idea to invite Western oil companies back in to invest again. Surely they can let bygones be bygones? Apparently not, because there doesn't seem to be a rush to come back in. After all, does anyone doubt that Chavez will steal the investments as soon as prices/production turn back up?
This all leaves Chavez in a bind. He hasn't made the investments that he needs to make, and nobody else is doing it for him. Production and prices are falling, and he has social programs to pay for. Debt started to pile up with oil services companies, and Chavez demanded lower prices from them. Given that he simply has no money for investment, he does what he always does. Threaten and then steal when he doesn't get what he wants:
Venezuela's Oil Production Squeezed by Chavez's Heavy Hand
Chavez's government and seized the assets of 60 foreign and domestic oil service companies after conflict erupted over nearly $14 billion in debt owed by the country's state-owned energy company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Irate over a growing backlog of invoices, many of the companies threatened to halt operations – something PDVSA and Chavez can ill-afford. The company accounts for about half of Venezuela's revenue, and is largely responsible for funding and administering the social programs that Chavez has employed to court popular support.
PDVSA brought in more than $120 billion in revenue in 2008, but this year, it will likely make just $50 billion. With its back against the wall, PDVSA is demanding that service companies accept a 40% cut in their bills. Last Friday, the government began expropriating equipment and projects from foreign oil service firms that refused to renegotiate their debt. At least 12 drilling rigs, more than 30 oil terminals, and about 300 boats were seized, the according to The Financial Times.
But the brash gesture will also bring negative consequences that could significantly jeopardize the nation's oil production, which is already in decline.
"PDVSA has to invest in the business," James L. Williams, heads of oil consultancy WTRG Economics told BusinessWeek. "You have to feed a cow if you expect it to give milk."
Hey, this is about geese and golden eggs, not cows and milk. But, point taken. The fact is that Chavez continues Venezuela's slide toward becoming Zimbabwe. One wonders if he truly lacks the ability to plan, or was just too stupid to see the consequences of this road he has chosen to go down. The only thing that can save him at this point will be for oil prices to go up. Ironically, that's the same thing I would like to see happen, but if we are lucky Chavez will be ousted before prices get much higher. Then again, if production continues to fall it won't matter how high prices go; they won't be able to offset the drops in production.
Chavez is now rattling sabers with Coca-Cola, so don't be surprised if they go down next. Seriously, I don't know why we don't just seize Citgo as a response, auction off the refineries, and then pay damages to those whose assets have been expropriated. Chavez has said he doesn't want to operate in the U.S., so we should extend a helping hand. It is the least we could do.
Trying to Make Sense of Ethanol Tariffs
Note that in the following essay, I am not trying to come down either for or against ethanol tariffs, but rather to discuss what I see as the key issues surrounding them. U.S. energy policy is slanted to favor U.S. farmers and ethanol producers, and I am merely trying to explain the tariffs within that context.
You are probably aware that the U.S. imposes a $0.54/gallon tariff on ethanol that we import from Brazil. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with President Obama last week and implored him – in the name of a better environmental policy – to remove the "absurd tariffs on ethanol." In response President Obama said the situation is "not going to change overnight."
Brazil wants help lifting US ethanol tariffs
Brazil is a world leader in biofuels and the world's largest exporter of ethanol. But Silva, who met with President Barack Obama on Saturday, has made little progress persuading the U.S. to reduce the tariffs, which are in place to protect American farmers who make ethanol from corn. Brazil makes ethanol from sugar, in a process that is much more efficient and costs less.
By all accounts, ethanol from sugarcane is a more sustainable model than ethanol from corn. The key to this – as I explained here – is that a true waste product (bagasse) is generated and used to fuel the boilers, mostly eliminating the need for fossil fuels for the production of the ethanol. So why do we penalize Brazilian ethanol? Is it pure protectionism?
While I am no fan of the perpetual subsidies we have put in place to prop up our corn ethanol industry, I think the tariffs do make sense in light of what policy-makers are trying to achieve. Gasoline blenders receive a credit of $0.51/gal (soon to drop to $0.45/gal, which should be this year since the farm bill said the credit would drop "beginning in the first calendar year after the year in which 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol is produced").
While the credit indeed goes to the gasoline blender, since it reduces their costs for ethanol, it provides an incentive for ethanol producers. That is why ethanol producers – and not gasoline blenders – are the ones who always scream the loudest when the discussion turns to removing the credit. The question on the ethanol tariff becomes "Do we want to extend that incentive to Brazilian ethanol producers?" In other words, do you want your tax dollars going to incentivize sugarcane ethanol producers?
Here is how the tariff prevents that. A gasoline blender could buy corn ethanol or sugarcane ethanol, blend it into gasoline, and get the same blender's credit in either case. Because ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane is cheaper than ethanol produced from corn, without the tariffs in place blenders would likely get all of the ethanol they could from Brazil. Given that this is completely contrary to the goal of creating a U.S.-based ethanol industry, the tariff makes sense in that context. One could argue the point that the tariff isn't there to punish Brazilian ethanol, but rather to prevent them from taking advantage of a provision designed to spur U.S. ethanol production with taxpayer money.
Of course the fact that the tariff is $0.54 while the blender's credit was $0.51 and quickly falling to $0.45 is a different matter. If the tariff is equal to the blender's credit, then indeed one could argue that this is merely the removal of U.S. taxpayer support from Brazilian ethanol. However, if the tariff is greater than the blender's credit, it begins to look like a punitive tariff, designed to do more than just remove U.S. taxpayer support. There is a senate bill currently under consideration to level that playing field back out:
Bipartisan Senate bill seeks lower tariffs on ethanol imports
A bipartisan group of senators is seeking to lower U.S. tariffs on ethanol imports to achieve "parity" with the blender's credit, which was reduced in last year's farm bill.
The farm bill knocked the blender's credit from 51 cents per gallon to 45 cents per gallon. A new Senate measure (pdf) is aimed at knocking down the 54-cent-per-gallon import tariff and the 2.5 percent ad valorem tariff to achieve "parity" with the lowered blender's tax credit.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), one of the sponsors, said in a statement that the higher import tariff creates a barrier for sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil, and hence gives gasoline imports a "competitive advantage."
I don't find myself agreeing with Senator Feinstein very often on energy issues, but here I think she is correct. This is the other side of the coin. While the tariff may have the effect of ensuring that the blender's credit only goes to U.S. ethanol producers, it also has the impact of putting Brazilian ethanol at a competitive disadvantage to gasoline or crude oil imports. Is this desirable? I don't think so. To the extent that we require fuel imports, I fall into that camp of preferring to deal with Brazil over Venezuela.
So, how might I write a better policy than the one we have now but still protect U.S. ethanol producers? First, eliminate both the blender's credit and the tariffs. This removes the barriers to Brazilian ethanol, while leveling the playing field with gasoline imports. Second, given that the present policy is designed to protect U.S. ethanol producers, require that some percentage or some volume of ethanol blended into the fuel system must come from them. Third, even with the current blender's credit in place, U.S. ethanol producers are struggling to survive. If they had to sell their ethanol in a competitive (unprotected) market, they would all go bankrupt. Therefore, you have to keep the mandates in place regarding the amount of ethanol that must be blended into the fuel supply. This ensures that even if they can't compete in an open market, they still have a captive market.
Of course I have said many times that I don't favor mandates at all, nor do I think the corn ethanol industry will ever be viable in an open marketplace. However, it would be disastrous for Midwestern economies to completely pull support from under the industry. I would favor a policy in which we no longer encourage expansion of the industry, and over time phase the mandates out. This would in my opinion be the end of the corn ethanol industry, but a slow end without a shocking impact. If it isn't, and they can survive in a world without mandates, then more power to them. But if they still can't manage to live without subsidies after receiving them for 30 straight years (and even that wasn't enough, hence the mandates), why should we expect that they ever will?
Incidentally, one final note on Brazil. People sometimes ask me which countries I think have a bright future, despite the prospect of peak oil. I think it is hard to make a case that anyone is going to be better off than Brazil. They are sitting on top of huge oil reserves, they can produce ethanol very efficiently and have the infrastructure in place to utilize it, and they have good solar insolation for solar panels, solar hot water, etc. I just don't know of other country as well-positioned as they are. Not only do I think they will survive peak oil, I think they will thrive and their economy will continue to grow. That's just one of the reasons I have invested money in Brazil.
Chavez Back Pedals
Now this is pretty funny:
Chávez Lets West Make Oil Bids as Prices Plunge
CARACAS, Venezuela — President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.
Until recently, Mr. Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases.
But faced with the plunge in prices and a decline in domestic production, senior officials have begun soliciting bids from some of the largest Western oil companies in recent weeks — including Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell and Total of France — promising them access to some of the world's largest petroleum reserves, according to energy executives and industry consultants here.
Let's see. Invite oil companies in, steal their investments when oil prices go up, kick them out, invite them in again when oil prices fall. That sounds fair. Every oil company with a few billion dollars burning a hole in their pocket is probably lining up – presuming they don't mind losing 100% of their investment based on Chavez's whims.
In all seriousness, I have said on numerous occasions that the oil industry in Venezuela couldn't survive with Chavez siphoning all the profits and using them to fund his social programs. The oil industry is capital intensive. You neglect those capital requirements at the peril of future production. Someone commented on a previous essay that it was arrogant to assume that Venezuela couldn't expand oil production without outside help. As I pointed out, heavy oil production is technically challenging. Chavez's move here is an admission that things haven't worked out for him as planned, and that in fact they do need outside help; help that Chavez has thoroughly alienated.
As the article points it, the biggest irony is that Chavez has celebrated the demise of capitalism in Venezuela, even though it was capitalism that enabled him to carry out his social programs. So, he is going to give capitalism another chance – but we have seen what happens when prices go up. His motto is "You take the risk, I will reap the reward."
I'm in the Wrong Business
Update: As Maury pointed out in the comments, Chavez has reconsidered:
Venezuelan-owned Citgo Petroleum, which had earlier indicated it might end a home heating oil assistance program for low-income Americans, yesterday said it had decided to continue the program.
Joseph P. Kennedy II, chairman of Citizens Energy, said yesterday that the renewal of the program was evidence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's "genuine concern for the most vulnerable, regardless of where they may live."
Does that mean that he was no longer concerned for those people when he cancelled the program? With comments like that, Joe Kennedy's $400,000 salary won't be in jeopardy.
You may have seen the recent announcement that Hugo Chavez is cutting off the free heating oil for low income residents in the Northeast:
Citgo Stops U.S. Oil Gifts in Sign Chávez Feels Pain
Citgo Petroleum Corp., the U.S. refiner owned by the Venezuelan government, will suspend charitable contributions of home heating oil to poor U.S. households — a sign that falling oil prices may hamstring Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, whose administration has used an oil windfall to win voters' loyalty at home and allies abroad.
In a surprise announcement, former U.S. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II said Venezuela would stop deliveries to his Boston-based nonprofit, Citizens' Energy, which last winter received $100 million of fuel that was distributed throughout the Northeast. Mr. Kennedy said Citgo cited falling oil prices and the world economic crisis for forcing the company "to re-evaluate all of its social programs." Neither Citgo nor the Venezuelan government had any comment.
That alone is an interesting story. Chavez has siphoned money away from the oil industry in order to pay for social programs, which has resulted in underinvestment that will eventually come back to haunt him. (See this story that I wrote last year highlighting the issues). To this point, high oil prices have been a blessing for him, but falling production and low oil prices are combining to put the squeeze on Chavez.
But that isn't the point of this essay. In a discussion on this at The Oil Drum, someone linked to a bit of additional information:
Chavez, Joe Kennedy and Oil Math
It's hard to avoid the commercials starring former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II explaining how friendly Venezuela and Hugo Chavez are to the American people. After all Chavez and Kennedy are bringing relief to the poor people of America who suffer under the evil tyranny of high fuel costs. However, reality has a tendency to get in the way of press events for Citgo and Citizens Energy Corporation such as the scenes of Joe Kennedy driving up to house in a Citgo truck to deliver 40% cheaper heating oil from his "not-for-profit energy company." The last thing anyone involved in this program wants is for someone to look behind the curtain.
First, Citizens Energy Corporation is not the organization that is directly involved with the program. Rather, one has to first look to a holding company, which is a for-profit and wholly owned subsidiary of Citizens Energy's called Citizens Enterprises Corporation: first, eighty-six percent of Mr. Kennedy's over $400,000 annual salary comes from this organization.
It's always been a pet peeve of mine when 'charities' pay outrageous salaries to their employees. If I send a charity a check, I really don't want it paying for a vacation home in France. $400,000? Are you kidding me? Poor Joe may have to take a pay cut and join so many others who have been impacted by the economic turmoil.
I have always heard that if you want to get rich, you should start your own religion. But it looks starting your own charity can also offer up a path to riches. Now, if I can just come up with a catchy name…
Nationalize the Oil Industry?
In a post I wrote just over a year ago – Peak Oil: End of the World? – I posed the following:
If you think the public is outraged now, wait until gas is $10 a gallon, people are suffering as a result, the economy is tanking, and ExxonMobil posts the first ever $100 billion annual profit.
The vast majority of the country will blame Big Oil for their woes, and they will resent that Big Oil is profiting from it. How will the public react? How will the government react? No doubt there will be legislation designed to combat the problem, but of what form? Will the government institute rationing? Will they attempt to nationalize the oil companies?
This wasn't the first time I have mentioned the prospect, and it won't be the last. You may have seen Representative Maxine Waters yesterday threaten to nationalize the oil industry during a house hearing on fuel prices:
Video: Maxine Waters threatens to nationalize America's oil industry
The thing is, I can only see these calls for nationalization gaining in popularity. Our government – if it behaves in the predictable fashion that I have come to expect – is incapable of stopping the climb in prices. Long-term, prices are going higher – and oil companies will benefit. Even as oil majors struggle to replace their reserves, oil prices are rising at an even faster pace. Thus, the value of the oil that they do produce more than offsets those declines. So what I expect to see is oil companies become more and more profitable as oil prices continue to climb. The only things our government can do to stem the pain are things they can't collectively agree to do. What they can collectively seem to do is offer pandering solutions that appease the public's anger by "sticking it to the oil companies."
So I foresee more calls to nationalize. If the goal is to bring prices down, it would be a disaster. If the government took over, what would they do with the profits? They would end up getting diverted down other channels. That is not sustainable, as this industry is very capital intensive. Venezuela is seeing their production decline accelerate as they fail to invest enough money back into the business.
Ironically, I wrote an essay just a few days ago on this topic for Resource Investor:
Creeping Nationalization and the Oil Industry
After pointing out that 1). Most of ExxonMobil's profits are derived from overseas operations; and 2). Government has had a handsome windfall as well from rising prices; I lay out what I see as the risk if we creep toward nationalization:
What does the government risk by implementing creeping nationalization and open hostility toward such a key industry? One need look no further than Venezuela, where ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips both left the country as Hugo Chavez increased taxes to the point that the risk was no longer worth the reward. Of course countries like Iran and China were more than willing to move into the void, which further diminishes the access the U.S. companies have to global oil reserves.
But with the constant threat of higher taxes hanging over their heads, it is not inconceivable that some U.S.-based oil companies would simply relocate to countries with more consistent energy policies. After all, that's what Halliburton did, which ironically sparked political outrage from the same crowd calling for windfall profits taxes on oil companies.
Nationalizing the industry is not going to bring prices down. Using history as a guide (Venezuela, Mexico), it would likely accelerate the decline in production, driving prices even higher. But that doesn't mean that the government won't eventually tire of the annual rite of tongue-lashing the oil companies, and move on to more drastic action.
Attempting the Impossible
I ran across the following today:
Our view on gasoline prices: With crude at $100 a barrel, Big Oil needs no tax breaks
It's difficult — make that impossible — to justify taxpayer subsidies for an industry whose top five companies made $123 billion in profits last year. Oil at $100 a barrel ought to be plenty of incentive to drill without extra encouragement from taxpayers.
OK, sounds like a challenge. I will accept. First off, does it matter how much capital is being invested to make those returns? What if the required investments are 10 times that $123 billion? What if another industry – like say Hollywood studios – makes much higher profit margins, yet qualifies for exactly the same tax deduction? Does that make a difference? No? Is it just because $123 billion is a big number? How big should it be? What should the allowed return be to justify the cost and risk of building a floating city in the ocean? And what is the justification for denying the tax deduction to the largest companies of a single industry?
Is it really fair to exempt Citgo, after Hugo Chavez has already seized investments of U.S. companies? Believe it or not, these same companies whose investments Chavez has seized (COP and XOM) are being singled out for more punitive measures by a pandering Congress, while a Venezuelan oil company operating in the U.S. would continue to receive the tax deduction.
Further, with oil at $100 a barrel, understand that all costs associated with drilling have rapidly increased. Should that matter? Or does is still just boil down to $123 billion is so gosh-darned big? Well, get your mind wrapped around the capital expenditures. They also dwarf those of other industries. Should it matter that these projects take many years to bring to fruition, and yet politicians attempt to change the rules every year? If you are an oil company CEO, is it more likely or less likely that you will make marginal investments in the U.S. – given the uncertainty that the law will remain constant?
I have to agree with the OMB:
"The administration must strongly oppose" the legislation, the Office of Management and Budget said Tuesday, "because the bill would use the tax code to target tax increases on a specific industry in a way that will lead to higher energy costs to U.S. consumers and businesses."
But here's the political spin:
Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-Ill.) said "Americans are being asked to pay twice" — once at the gasoline pump and then through tax subsidies to the oil companies.
Are they really being asked to pay twice? Don't oil companies pay far, far more in tax revenues than this little tax break? Sounds to me like oil companies are being asked to pay twice. And I guess that you also forgot that if your argument is true, Americans are paying three times. The government take from gasoline sales is huge – so you apparently forgot that payment. But I am sure politicians aren't eager to highlight that point.
And if it is really this simple:
Supporters of the measure noted that rescinded tax breaks would amount to less than 2 percent of the profits of the five biggest oil companies. Even if the companies were to pass along that entire cost to gasoline consumers, it would amount to about a penny a gallon.
– then I have an idea. Raise gas taxes by a penny a gallon. My guess is that this would have much less opposition. But this isn't really about the money. This is just politicians playing games and pandering for the public.
Newsflash: Chavez to Increase Oil Taxes Again
When ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips walked out of Venezuela last year instead of accepting radical changes to their previously agreed upon contracts, I think they could see the handwriting on the wall. As long as Chavez has influence down there, oil companies are not going to be allowed to consistently make money. If oil prices are up, he is going to demand a bigger cut. But if oil prices are down, he isn't likely to reduce tax rates. So I think XOM and COP viewed the situation as high risk, low reward, and decided to exit instead of continue to play games with Chavez.
It should come as no big surprise to the companies who decided to stay – Chevron, BP, Statoil, and Total – that the deals they agreed to would be voided if it looked like they were going to start making money:
Venezuela to impose new tax on oil company earnings
CARACAS, March 24 (Xinhua) — Venezuela will impose a new tax on oil companies for their "unexpected earnings" from the soaring global oil prices, President Hugo Chavez said Monday.
"They're earning money that they haven't accounted for," Chavez said in a speech televised Monday, adding that those large additional earnings are not "a product of any extraordinary effort."
The government has prepared a bill outlining the tax, he said, but the tax rate has not yet been determined.
The tax will represent the fourth rise in oil taxes in as many years as part of Chavez's drive to increase revenue from the oil industry and tighten state control over oil fields.
Over the past two years, the Venezuelan government has raised taxes for oil exploration, extraction, processing and selling to foreign companies.
This is the business climate in Venezuela: Take risks, and if there is a reward Chavez will take it. This is already hurting investment there, and I think Venezuela – after seeing an initial windfall – will see much lower revenues in the future as investment there dries up. He is employing an incredibly short-sighted strategy.
Chavez Targets "Big Milk"
After threat to cut off oil, Chavez says Venezuela may expropriate milk plants
CARACAS, Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez warned that some milk plants may be expropriated to ease shortages, singling out Italy's Parmalat SpA and Switzerland's Nestle SA.
Chavez mentioned the two companies during his weekly program Sunday, saying international companies sometimes "pressure" Venezuelan farmers to obtain their milk for export.
"It's no use for us to be setting up plants (if) then there is no milk for the plants because Parmalat or … Nestle take it all away," Chavez said. "That's where I say this government has to tighten the screws."
If companies ensure a supply through "blackmail, offering money up front" while leaving state-run plants without enough milk, "that's called sabotage," Chavez said. He added that in such cases, "the plants must be taken over and expropriated."
This is long overdue, given the atrocities committed by the milk industry in South America. The Swiss and Italians are clearly milking Venezuela. Call it a hunch, but something tells me that chicken, flour, and sugar plants will be next on the expropriations list:
There have been sporadic shortages of basic goods like milk, chicken, flour and sugar for months, and the problem has been considered a political liability for Chavez since he lost a vote last year on constitutional changes that would have let him run for re-election indefinitely.
Of course critics were quick to lie about the situation, as critics do:
Critics blame government price controls and a poor investment climate. The government says strong economic growth has boosted demand for meat and milk and other products.
The companies involved apparently get news of items like this from the media, and not through official channels:
Parmalat declined comment. Francois-Xavier Perroud, a spokesman for Nestle in Vevey, Switzerland, said he read news accounts quoting Chavez but that "the company in Venezuela has not received any official notification, any official statement that anything is being thought about or considered or being planned."
And then as expected, it turns out that it is really the plotters behind this. Venezuela's problems are always caused by someone else:
Chavez also accused opponents of plotting to ensure food shortages by hoarding supplies ahead of state and local elections in November. He did not elaborate but said, "We're facing an economic conspiracy, and we're obliged to act."
Like I said, this move is long overdue. Let the government take over, and show Big Milk how an efficienct operation should be run. Lessons from the oil industry expropriation are that you can shirk maintenance and investments for a quick short-term gain. Longer term, Chavez can hope it will be someone else's problem. But as far as actually increasing milk supplies as a result of taking over the industry, lessons from the oil industry should have citizens concerned about starving to death.
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55 recipes by uzukaji
- Tomato and Avocado SaladThis is a quick, delicious salad that's vibrant red and green.Cherry tomatoes, Avocado, Lemon, Black pepper, Salt, Olive oil
- Satoimo (Taro Root) and Chicken in Cream SauceA cream sauce dish with chicken and hearty yet creamy satoimo.Satoimo (taro root), Chicken thigh, Bacon, Heavy cream, Milk, Olive oil, Grated cheese
- Eggplant and Chicken NanbanThis is a recipe for easy and delicious eggplant and chicken nanban. It's also great as an appetizer to serve with drinks.Eggplant (slim Japanese type), Chicken thigh, Cake flour, Salt and pepper, Sugar, Soy sauce, Vinegar
- Cabbage and Chicken Asian Stir-fryAdd cumin and Nam pla Thai fish sauce for an unique spin on an Asian stir-fry!Cabbage, Chicken thigh, Cumin powder, Fish sauce, Salt and pepper, Cake flour, Black pepper
- Chicken Tenders and Eggplant Sauteed in Shiro DashiSimple and easy! It's a delicious shiro dashi-based sauté with fragrant shiso leaves.Chicken tenders, Eggplant (slim Japanese type), Shiso leaves, Mirin, Shiro-dashi, Katakuriko
- Soft & Delicious Karaage Chicken TendersChicken tenders are really soft, so they're good for frying! This recipe is really simple and easy to make. It's good to pack in bento, too.Chicken tenders, Sugar, Soy sauce, Plain flour
- Sweet Potato PasteThis sweet potato paste that brings out the natural sweetness of sweet potatoes. Use it as a bread filling in Recipe ID: 882426.Sweet potato, Light brown sugar, Milk, Heavy cream
- Milk Tea BagelA milk tea bagel full of earl grey tea aroma. Great with cream cheese too but milk jam works well too.Strong (bread) flour, Sugar, Tea bags, Milk, Salt, Dry yeast

subset: commoncrawl


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All-women shortlists for selecting parliamentary candidates will remain legal until 2030 under new plans to help create a "critical mass" of 200 female MPs.
The policy had been due to expire in 2015, but Harriet Harman, the minister for Women, said she was extending the law for 15 years to encourage more women to enter politics.
At present there are 121 women MPs, about one in five members of the Commons, but although the number has increased dramatically since 1996, estimates suggest it will take 60 years before they equal the number of men.
Ms Harman said: "The Government is committed to ensuring that our democracy is representative. We have fought for equal representation and that's why there are more women in Parliament than ever before, but we need more.
"The most effective policy for increasing women's representation has been making it lawful to have women-only shortlists. By 2030 we should have achieved a critical mass of 200 women MPs, which will act as a tipping point for a natural increase in the number of women in elected office. Women MPs have changed not only the face of Parliament, but the agenda of Parliament. I can remember when there was virtually no discussion in Parliament of maternity leave, domestic violence, or support for families caring for older relatives."
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4 Guest Luxury Suite In Santorini
Apartment with 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom in Imerovigli, Santorini
Booking cost: £0.00
From £3,139 per week
Apartment to rent in Imerovigli, Santorini
Apartment overview - owner's description
Minimally-designed, stylish apartment located within a traditional cliff-side house that has been restored. Incredible views, large private area with jacuzzi, and shared pool.
These original houses were built more than 120 years ago and were restored during 2008. The original cave-like structures have been modified to create simple and elegant spaces, paying particular attention to convenience and detail. These snow-white accommodations blend traditional architecture with every possible modern amenity.
They are specially designed for guests who know how to appreciate quality.
The suite:
Its minimally designed with traditional Cycladic features. It has a large domed separate living room with dining area, a desk, full equipped kitchenette, additional toilet, a bedroom with a Queen size double bed, a spacious bathroom with heated Jacuzzi and a shower room. It also contains an extra double bed built in a little cave. The large private yard with the Jacuzzi offers magnificent view of the Aegean sea and provides an ideal location for your morning coffee or your evening cocktail.
It can accommodate up to 4 persons.
Air conditioning
Satellite TV, DVD
Individual CD player/ radio
Direct dial phone
In - room safe deposit box
Full stocked Mini Bar
P.C. with free high speed internet access
Wireless internet access
Full equipped kitchenette
Hair dryer
Bathrobes, slippers and other comfort amenities
Anatomic mattresses and pillow menu
Chopard luxury bathroom amenities
Luxuriant bed linens (Guy Laroche, Pierre Cardin)
Food and beverage service in the privacy of the residence
Twice daily maid service
Laundry/ pressing service
In-room massage facilities for beauty and health treatments upon request
Manicure/ pedicure/ Hairdressing service (upon request)
Arrangements for guided tours, sailing, car and motorbike rentals
Daily international press
The suites are located on the most preferential point on the island of Santorini, at the highest point of the Caldera, at the picturesque village of Imerovigli. Every angle of the suites offers an extraordinary, stunning view of the volcano, the sea and the neighboring islands and evokes emotions of serenity to its guests.
The interior design and architecture is balanced between the traditional Cycladic and contemporary style.
The property, with its individually styled suites, appeals to those seeking an elegant and relaxing escape.
The feeling of being "on top of the world" makes visitors easily forget that they are on one of the most cosmopolitan islands in Greece.
We can say that being here you are a part of a breathtaking scenery.
Here you can touch your dreams.
Prices include breakfast in the suite, wine & fruits upon arrival, free transfer from/to airport or port.
Prices are for 4 people, special discount for less guests.
This apartment does not have any reviews but the agent has 10 reviews for their other properties.
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Outside this apartment in Imerovigli, SantoriniThis apartment is in the city near a lively area, the sea and mountains. It has a balcony, outside lighting and a sea view. Car hire is not necessary as the apartment is less than a 15 minute walk to a large selection of shops, bars, restaurants; however parking is not available.
Prices and availability
Updated 30 May 2017
Select your travel dates on the calendar
1 bedroom, Sleeps 4:
- 1 double bed
There is also 1 double sofa bed in Living room
1 bathroom
CD player, DVD/Blu-ray player, Internet / WiFi, TV Languages in Local, Satellite / cable
Living area seats 4, Dining area seats 4, Air conditioning, Hair dryer, Towels / linen, Car hire optional
Fridge, Glassware
Balcony or terrace, Outside lighting, Sea view
Suitable for
Children, Infants, Smoking
Property Manager From Heraklion, Greece Member since Feb 2007
Past bookings: 115 bookings
Response rate: 100%
Response time: within 4 hours
Last logged in: a day ago
Number of properties: 112


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EUR/JPY Targets 110.30; 109.50
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Forex Video Technical Update 2/3/2011 - Euro's Topping Action Spreads: Will it Sustain?
- The EUR/JPY pair confirms the downtrend as the rally to start the week failed sustain a break back above the 112.00 pivot.
- The candlestick action also suggests bears are in control. Projections look towards 111.30, between the 50 and 61.8% retracement level. It is also where the 200SMA resides.
- The decline can extend to 109.50 to test the 61.8% retracement level and an important pivot as well from back in September 2010.
- The daily chart below shows the EUR/JPY topping off with sharp bearish action from 114.00. The market has been sideways since 2010 and price action has been bearish. A swing projection towards 106.00 is in sight, but we should probably expect a failure. A target of 107.50 may be more appropriate at the moment (pending a break below 109.50.)
- On the upside. A break back above 114.00 suggests a major bullish attempt to break the 115.66 highs from October 2010. Above that the market can accelerate to 122.00.
Has the EUR/JPY topped off for a major decline? We would love to hear what you think.
Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.
Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist


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For express service, call 1800 069 295 for a quote.
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2014 Chateau Grand Pontet Pre-Arrival Offer
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Other Reviews...
The Château Grand-Pontet 2014 has a lifted, perfumed and floral bouquet with hints of violet suffusing the crisp blueberry and blackcurrant fruit. The palate is medium-bodied with fine tannin, good structure and harmony here with a long, sensual finish in the making. This is a Saint Emilion that has put in a fine performance in 2014. Drink 2019 - 2032.
91-93 points
Neal Martin - The Wine Advocate # 218 (Apr 2015)
A full-bodied wine with blackberry, licorice and tar character. Round tannins and chewy. Impressive.
91-92 points
James Suckling
Conditions of Pre-Arrival Offer:
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4. The wines are being shipped in refrigerated containers and are due to arrive in late 2017.
5. Nicks Wine Merchants reserve the right to pass on any changes in Government duties and taxes and delivery charges from the date of order to the date of final delivery of the wine.
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It is known as a hot dog, apparently, because the arc described by the player's racket as it travels down between their legs to strike the ball resembles the filling of the savoury snack.
Believe that explanation if you like. All we know is that if most of us attempted the outrageous tennis shot played by Roger Federer in his US Open semi-final against Novak Djokovic it would probably have resulted in some painful bruising to a sensitive area of the anatomy.
Everyone loves the trick shot. Just as we all like the ball jugglers in football; the batsmen who are prepared to try something new; the quick-thinking improvisers on the rugby pitch.
Of course, unless such trickery is married to skill, teamwork, application and discipline they are of little use. But what a dull world it would be for sports enthusiasts without the imaginative and the audacious. So here's to many more sporting hot dogs to come. The fans will provide the relish.
- More about:
- Novak Djokovic
- Roger Federer
- Tennis
- US Open- Tennis


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Teddy duncan
Jelajahi topik terkait
Teddy Duncan's (Bridgit Mendler) bed room in Good Luck Charlie
Teddy Duncan (Bridget Mendler)
"How To Dress Like: Teddy Duncan (Good Luck Charlie)" by guardingangels on Polyvore
Teddy Duncan (Bridgit Mendler) wears a Free People Vintage Tapestry Tote in Good Luck Charlie Season 4 Episode 11 "Teddy's Choice." *Note* Each bag is handmade so patterns will vary. #teddyduncan #goodluckcharlie #disney
Teddy Duncan Outfit
Inspired by Bridgit Mendler as Teddy Duncan from Good Luck Charlie.
"Teddy Duncan Style" by xoxheyheyxox ❤ liked on Polyvore
"Teddy Duncan (Good Luck Charlie)" by guardingangels ❤ liked on Polyvore featuring moda, Pull&Bear, Oasis, Anna Field, Rebecca Minkoff e 2b bebe
Love this outfit!
Good Luck Charlie: Season 4 Episode 5 Teddy's Pattern Cardigan - ShopYourTv


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As reported by the LA Times, the brush fire raging in the rugged mountains of the Santa Clarita Valley grew by more than 10,000 acres on Sunday, scorching an estimated 37,000 acres by the late evening as the blaze continued to threaten hundreds of homes while firefighters battled to keep flames from spreading, authorities said.
Fueled by 20-mph winds and hillsides carpeted with tinder-like chaparral, the wildfire was burning in hills toward Acton by late Sunday afternoon. Hundreds of residents were ordered to evacuate.
During a catastrophic event like this it is quite common for insurance companies to issue a moratorium on new business. In an attempt by insurance companies to reduce their losses and prevent fraud, our agency frequently receives notices like the one below.
The notice states that because of the current wildfire in progress we are temporarily unable to issue any insurance policy with property damage coverage. This includes home, auto, and business insurance polices to specific regions in the Santa Clara area.
Effective immediately, and until further notice, insurance company will not bind any new or endorsed comprehensive or collision business in the state of California in the above Zip codes due to the Sand Wildfire. This restriction applies to all property coverages (personal & commercial) and auto physical damage coverage. Please note that this suspension also applies to changes in physical damage coverage or deductibles for existing insureds.
We feel it is important for our clients and other property owners to understand how insurance companies in California operate. Notices like these serve as a reminder to consumers that it is important to have the proper coverage before the worst happens.
Raphael Locsin
Latest posts by Raphael Locsin (see all)
- How Credit Affects Homeownership - August 1, 2016
- New Business Restrictions: Santa Clarita Fire - July 26, 2016
- 5 Things to Know Before Signing a Rental Agreement - July 16, 2016


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Club Tennis is a competitive team of male and female DU students that travels locally, regionally and nationally, competing against club teams across the country.
Most of our members are former competitive junior players and high school varsity players. We practice three times a week and compete in an average of four to six tournaments per year.
Our team offers high-level competition without the time commitment of varsity athletics. We are a team on and off the court, and invite all students with an interest in tennis to try out.
For more information on our team, please contact one of our club officers, listed below.
Club Tennis Accomplishments
- The team annually competes in the Tennis on Campus (TOC) Wildcat Winter Classic in Tuscon, Ariz.
- The team competes in local collegiate tournaments during the Fall and Spring seasons.
Club Tennis Officer Information
President: Reagan Schmidt
Email: email@example.com
Vice President: Leon Sport
Email: email@example.com
Treasurer: Rachel Moentmann
Email: email@example.com
Fundraising Chair: Amalia Bertram
Email: firstname.lastname@example.com
Support Club Tennis
Club Tennis looks to continue an active 2016-2017 season with USTA competition, hoping to earn its first bid to Nationals. With our yearly competition in Arizona in the winter and Regionals in the Intermountain Region, we are looking for support with travel expenses as we look to play high-quality competition across the country.
We are fundraising to help support our regional competition travel expenses and hope you will consider a gift to Club Tennis, no matter the amount. Thank you for your support!


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SRAM Omnium will take you to whole new level of quality cranks.
Omnium cranks has 48 teeth and comes with GXP BSA bottom bracket that fits on any of our bikes.
Aluminium 7050 crank arm, with integrated bottom bracket axle, aluminium AL7075 chain ring (5mm thick), 144mm circle diameter, only suitable for chains 1/2 x 1/8", weight with bottom bracket approx. 825g.
Shop all Cranks
Shop all products tagged Accessories , Cranks , Drivetrain


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Roger O'DonnellView in iTunes
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Keyboard player Roger O'Donnell is best known for his long tenure with the Cure, but he's also played with other noted acts and has moved on to a solo career. Born in East London in 1955, O'Donnell was the youngest of four children in a family fascinated with music and art. O'Donnell claims he was born next to the piano in his parents' living room, and he first learned to play when his eldest brother taught him some 12-bar blues numbers. As a teenager, O'Donnell was fascinated with jazz fusion, funk, and progressive rock, and took a part-time job to purchase his first electric piano. O'Donnell landed his first professional gig not long after he enrolled in art school when he was hired to back up wildly eccentric rocker Arthur Brown for a pub gig. Soon music was keeping O'Donnell busy enough that he quit school and formed a combo with some friends. In 1983, a friend and former bandmate Boris Williams recommended O'Donnell for a spot in the Thompson Twins' touring group, and after two years on the road with them he took a similar position with the Psychedelic Furs. In 1987, Boris Williams was playing with the Cure, and when Lol Tolhurst left the band, Williams suggested O'Donnell be auditioned as their new keyboard player. O'Donnell got the job, and joined the Cure in time for an American tour in support of Kiss Me, Kiss Me, Kiss Me. O'Donnell appeared on the Cure's next two albums, Disintegration and the compilation Entreat, but tensions within the group caused O'Donnell to quit in 1990; he rejoined the band in 1996 in time for the sessions for Wild Mood Swings, and was a member for the next ten years, leaving when Robert Smith opted to strip the the Cure down to a trio in 2006. That same year, O'Donnell put out a primarily instrumental solo album, The Truth in Me, with an EP of remixes, Half Truths, following a few months later. In 2008 O'Donnell released Songs from the Silver Box, a personal project recorded entirely on the Moog Voyager, a vintage synthesizer that's long been one of his favorite instruments. In the fall of 2009, O'Donnell completed the first album from Charlie Crow, a side project he described as "Jazz/Electro." O'Donnell also frequently collaborates with singer and instrumentalist Erin Lang and manages the punk band the Machetes. ~ Mark Deming
Top Albums
Top Songs
1955 in London, England
Years Active:
'80s, '90s, '00s


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Ever wondered what it would be like to go to a zoo with humans in it? Well this is as close as you'll get as Vice have set up a LIVE date. And it's extremely weird.
VICE: Let's face it: It's Friday, you're currently less productive than a dog trying to fire a gun, and there's a lot of water to tread until you can go out and lay siege to your own sanity for 48 hours. So why not spend your afternoon watching an interminable first date between a girl our fashion editor knows and one of the guys from the super-romantic kissing video we made last week?
Source: Vice.


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Kids' favorite animated characters fill the pages of these activity books, coloring, and posters
Potty Training Book: Potty Fairy Princess
In colorful illustrations and simple stories, young characters show kids the ropes of going to the bathroom
Parragon Disney Shrinkwrapped (3-Pack): Princess
Activity book sets for children 3 to 6 years old with coloring scenes, stickers, and games featuring their favorite Disney characters
Disney Princess and Palace Pets Book Bundle (4-Piece)
Interactive and entertaining books based on classic Disney princesses and their adorable pets
Classic Disney films such as Frozen arrive in print, ready to enchant your youngsters in an all-new way with art true to the movies
Kids Book: 100 Princess Things To Do
Paperback - 64 pages
Star Wars Origami Yoda Book: Princess Labelmaker to the Rescue Red
Origami Yoda series books for children with Star Wars inspired stories focusing on middle school student's lives Size: Large. Color: Red. Gender: Unisex. Age Group: Adult.


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Star Trek #34
"Lost Apollo" concludes here! Stranded on an alien world and cut off from the Enterprise, Spock and Bones must work together to save Captain Kirk from a fate worse than death... a fate tied to the earliest days of humanity's journey to the stars! Overseen by STAR TREK writer/producer Roberto Orci, this all-new adventure continues the Five Year Mission between the new movies!
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The Darkest Knight
"I am doing this for the greater good!"
Neal could do nothing but stare are the mad preacher as he stood before them. The preacher, with his black suit, white clerical collar and black bowler hat, had to be almost seven feel tall. A clean-shaven man with delicate skin, he appeared as normal as any other man on the street. The vest of explosives strapped to his chest separated him from them, though. In his left hand was a remote control that Neal assumed was the trigger for the explosives, and in his right hand was a wooden cross.
"A demon runs amok in our city," the preacher shouted with fire in his throat, "and what do you do?! You praise him! You call him a hero! You put him on the cover of every magazine and newspaper in the city and worship him! Unacceptable!"
Neal heard the man next to him begin to blubber and cry. He tried to glance at the man, but it was difficult with his stomach and forehead on the cold, marble floor. He didn't want to turn his head for fear of being caught and reprimanded.
"Stop crying, you sniveling ass!" the preacher commanded, hurrying to the man next to Neal and pointing the wooden cross at him. "Weeping won't save you! You've squandered your forgiveness, just like everybody else! How do you think your God will judge you when you stand before Him?"
The man next to Neal sobbed even louder, showing no sign of trying to control it. The preacher's frustration was evident in his face as his teeth clenched together and his eyelids rolled back. He raised the wooden cross high up and brought it down on the back of the man's head. A vicious crack! echoed throughout the room, followed by a wave of yelps from the crowd.
"Silence!" the preacher screamed, raising to his feet. "I am your judge, Gotham, and I demand the same fear you give to God! And when that cursed demon you call a hero gets here, I will judge him with the rest of you!"
Neal stole a glance at the man next to him while the preacher ranted. His hands gripped the back of his head, but he looked more afraid than injured.
Oh, God, Neal prayed in his head. Where is he? Where is Batman?


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(251) 472-5045
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Associated with Sunbelt for over 8 years.Gerry has owned, managed and sold several businesses of her own and this background gives her a complete understanding of the Business Broker process and she is ready to assist you in reaching your goals.Gerry and Sunbelt's goal is to partner with clients on selling your business.
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SCENE 1Mature
Amelia's house.
In the living room, Richard is stretched out on the sofa. He's been in the same clothes for a week. Maude, his wife, sits on the adjacent chair, smoking and looking very annoyed.
Amelia stands in the kitchen with a mug of coffee. She is fairly used to this kind of argument.
Maude: No, I will not fetch it. You moan about your so-called disability all thetime... You'd think you were in a wheelchair.
Richard: My own wife won't pass me the remote control.
Maude: I'm not your carer, Richard.
Richard: 'In sickness and in health...'
Maude: Oh for God's sake! If I hear you recite our marriage vows one more time I'll... I'll... I don't know what I'll do!
Richard: Seems to be your thing.
Maude: What? (pause) WHAT?
Richard: Well you never actually do anything.
Maude: Sometimes Richard, I swear to God, I don't know why I married you.
Richard: You proposed to me!
Maude: Well I wish I hadn't! Believe it or not, I don't enjoy the prospect of looking after a drunken old idiot for the rest of-
Richard: I'm not drunk!
Maude: Stop interrupting me!
Richard: If I never interrupted you I'd never talk at all! You've been screaming at me for three days straight.
(Their argument gets more animated)
Maude: How dare you! You vomited over my grandmother's cat quilt! It's worth a fortune and you know it's worth a fortune, and the sentimental value is beyond-
Richard: Oh, shut up. Ever since the inheritance you've been obsessed with money, haven't you?
Maude: Excuse me!
Richard: And because you didn't look after me when I was ill-
Maude: Drunk you mean.
Richard: I was practically suicidal. You saw me, Maude. I was crawling on the floor and all I needed was a dark room and a kind word from somebody. And then you lose one manky old duvet and you take it all out on me!
Maude: Manky old duvet?!
(Amelia slams her coffee mug down deliberately on the kitchen counter. She folds her arms.)
Richard: And then you take it out on your husband. All I've been thinking the last few days is how one of us will have to go soon if thingsh don't improve.
Maude: Oh, I bet you'd like to get rid of me, wouldn't you?
Richard: Can't you shummon up the least bit of shympathy?
Maude: No, not when you're slurring your words.
Richard: I'm not shlurring my wordsh.
Maude: Well come on then. How many have you had?
Richard: You stony bitch. You hag!
Maude: Stop acting the victim! I want you to apologise properly for what you did to the cat quilt. That's all she left me, you know, apart from the measly thousand. And how much did you get, eh? (pause) And how much of it have you squandered on drink?
Richard: Oh, the old girl didn't like us much, so what? And I can spend what I got on whatever I damn well choose!
Maude: This isn't about the money! It's about the only gift I had from my grandmother! You ruined that quilt when you were pissed and all you've done since then is lie there feeling sorry for yourself!
(Amelia shuts the door between the kitchen and the living room. All we hear are muffled exclamations from the other room as Amelia picks up a nearby phone and dials a number.)
Amelia: Come on. ... Hello! ... How are you? ... Really? ... Oh, I'm sorry. Still, you've got the other interview, haven't you? ... And I'll tell you what, I did see something in the paper the other day. ... Yeah, it's a delivery thing. ... Yeah, I think they provide the car. You just need to be able to drive, I think. ... (laughs) ... Yeah, I know. ... I've got the paper here, you can look at it next time you visit... if Dad hasn't used it to line the cat's basket or something. ... OK. Anything else happen to you today? ... Uh-huh. ... I haven't seen that one. ... Is it good? ... Uh-huh. ... Uh-huh...
Maude: (muffled) How dare you!
Amelia: Yeah, I might get that if I see it. ... Cool. Well, there's a friend I just need to call. ... See you soon, little brother. ... (laughs) ... OK. Have a good day. Bye!
( She hangs up, then dials another number)
Amelia: Hello? ... Hello? ... It's Amelia. Is that Will? ... Oh sorry. Could you pass him on? Thanks. ... Will, hello. ... Fine thanks, you? ... Good. Listen, I need to get out of the house, parents are having problems. ... Yeah, I know. I was wondering if you weren't doing anything we could go to the Goat's Head? ... Or wherever really, just as long as I'm out of here, to be honest. ... I don't mind, as long as you're there. ... (laughs feebly) ... Yeah, OK. See you in about twenty minutes then? ... OK. ... Oh great! ... Bring it along, maybe I can read the next few chapters. ... Are you joking, my critique is the most valuable you could possibly find! ... (laughs) ... Alright, well bring it anyway. ... See you soon. ... Bye. (hangs up again)
Richard: All I want to do is watch the TV!
Maude: Then get up and get the remote!
Richard: Excuse me, it's not such a massive favour to ask, is it?
Amelia: Mum, Dad! I'm going out!
Maude: Oh! Um... there's money on the side, get some dinner for later, something you can cook.
Richard: Get brandy too, sweetheart.
Maude: You will NOT send your only daughter out to get your booze!
Richard: I won't sleep if I don't have something?
Maude: Get the bloody stuff yourself then!
(Amelia exits.)
Richard: Why shouldn't I ask her? She's old enough to make her own mind up, and if she didn't want to do it, she'd tell me? She's my girl, alright?
Maude: She's to scared to do anything else!
Richard: Rubbish!
Maude: It's not rubbish! You don't seem to realise how much of a burden you can be. in your head you must be the most suave chap in the whole of Britain but I'm afraid that isn't the case!
Richard: I'm depressed, Maude! Look at me. Does this look like the sort of man who can think as far ahead as thinking what to get for dinner?
Maude: You can think as far as your next drink.
Richard: Don't attack me like this.
(Outside there is the screech of tires and a crash.)
Maude: Oh yes, because you're just so fragile. You're such a fragile creature, Richard, and really so likeable for it.
Amelia: (offstage, faint) Shit!
Richard: I'm glad you said that, because I was just about to say what a really soft and compassionate woman you are, Maudeline Darylyn. You care so much about the wellbeing of others, it defies belief. (pause) Go and see what the hell that noise was, would you?


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Marriage Prep Class Database
Budget $90-90 USD
I am working on a database the tracks couples getting ready for marriage. I was given this project by my diocese which runs about 200 churches in my area. There have been 2 or 3 hands that have touched this project with never getting it working correctly. I am a novice Access person and a beginner at VBA. I have cleaned up a lot of the trash in the database and have it to a point where I could use some help. Are you interested in this project? Could you help me out at all with your hourly rate (I hate asking this but I'm own my one for getting this done for the church).
If you are interested I would like to complete this in 2 or 3 phases
Background on the database:
Couples personal information will collected and stored, also couples must complete 5 classes which have first have to be built in the database and then there attendance must be tracked.
Phase 1
Complete all utility forms with their sub forms
Of all the forms I have created the following forms:
do not need any work at this time I believe that they will work as is.
I would like sub or split forms showing all the records for the following forms:
I tried to complete this myself on the clergy form but was unable to complete correctly
When clicking on one the arrows on the right of the names in the sub form it show load the record into the main form I would like the search button changed also that it could open a small box or somewhere on the sub form have a box that you filter or search on any part of a certain field (in the case of clergy "lastname") so if you entered an s it would show in the sub form all the clergy with the last name starting with an s
On frm_class_create I would like to create 5 records that go into the class schedule table at one time. Can this be done? Can you tell what I am trying to do but what is started or you need more information? I may also want to change the primary key from auto number to a unique number that comes from the sum of a few fields. ( I will experiment with this myself and let you know if I need help)
Phase 2
Complete Registration form
Phase 3
Quires and reports
Could you give me a price or an rate and the estimated hours on what it will take? How is your work load right now?
Please let me know


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Crossing the chasm to SaaS
We share lessons learned in transitioning from traditional licensing models to the SaaS business model.
Crossing the chasm to SaaS
US Capital Confidence Barometer
Guiding employees through benefit changes
Using divestments to capitalize on disruption
M&A and capital raising – 2016 trends, 2017 outlook
Specialty finance continues to attract investors
Health care M&A STaT!
Does shareholder activism help drive value?
Does selling your business add up?
Transaction Advisory Services
Managing capital and transactions in a changing world
16th US Capital Confidence Barometer
Despite greater macro tumult than ever before, US executives are solidly optimistic, showing a meaningful increase in new deal activity since the start of 2017.
Using divestments to capitalize on disruption
Unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty and technological change are making portfolio and divestment strategy more vital than ever. Read about leading practices in our Global Divestment Study.
Need to make better and more-informed decisions about how to strategically manage capital and transactions in a changing world? Let us help.
The Capital Agenda puts your capital needs at the heart of our strategy and focuses on the issues that matter most to you:
Raising capital
A company's ability to raise capital quickly and effectively is integral to its growth potential and financial well-being. This is true in good times and in bad.
Whatever the motivation for raising capital, companies can access new funds more effectively if they have planned ahead. They should know how and where they could access capital, if they need it.
The focus should be:
- Fundraising (equity and debt): IPO readiness, right issues, PE, private placement and capital markets
- Optimizing funding structures
- Asset divestment
- Infrastructure projects
- Cost- and tax-efficient structures
Investing capital
Investors in your organization want to know why: why this transaction, why at this price and why now?
Complicating matters, differing stakeholders increasingly bring differing expectations of investments and returns.
The focus should be:
- Acquisition and alliances
- Delivery of synergies and effective integration
- Planning and structuring transactions to optimize stakeholder return
- Focused due diligence to mitigate risk and drive value
- Asset valuations
- Cost- and tax-efficient structures
Preserving capital
Every business needs to continuously assess the potential impact of evolving market conditions on the performance of its operations and its capital base. Even in a recovering market, companies believing themselves in a stable position can find their situation can change.
The preservation of capital requires that companies continuously scour their strategies, markets and balance sheets to reassess strengths and weaknesses.
The focus should be:
- Stress and distress — e.g., liquidity issues and turnaround plan
- Customer and supplier analysis
- Preserving tax assets and minimizing costs
- Refinancing and restructuring debt, equity and other obligations
- Dealing with stakeholder relationships and pressure
- Dispute resolution
Optimizing capital
Today's economic climate is forcing businesses to candidly assess their financial fitness.
More than a mere review of operations, companies today must conduct objective assessments of the alignment of their business strategies.
The focus should be:
- Optimizing asset portfolio
- Delivery of synergies and effective integration
- Improving working capital and releasing cash
- Optimizing capital structure
- Optimizing tax and corporate structure
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text: To get from Canosa di Puglia to Vittoria by train you can catch one of the 1 trains that everyday travel between these two cities. The first train to Vittoria leaves from Canosa di Puglia at 17:29 and the last train departs at 17:29. If you choose a local train the trip lasts on average 19:28 hours. For your trip from Canosa di Puglia to Vittoria by train you can choose to leave from one of Canosa di Puglia main stations: Canosa di Puglia On Wanderio you can compare all schedules, fares and railway companies to Vittoria and book the best itinerary starting from Canosa di Puglia.


text:
The Best British Actresses of All Time
We'll never forget our favorite film — or the leading lady who starred in it.
British actresses in particular are in a league of their own: they flawlessly move from stage to screen and back again, capturing the quirks and signature moves of the characters they bring to life (and real-life women they portray).
From Vivien Leigh's bold and vain Scarlett O'Hara to Helen Mirren's regal and reserved Queen Elizabeth II, we'll always remember the British actresses that made these women who they are.
With countless accolades under their belts, our favourite British actresses also manage to do what eludes so many women in show business: they continue to play interesting and complex female characters as they age, rather than seeing their careers taper off after their ingenue years have come to an end.
Take our MAKER Helen Mirren: in 2010, she appeared in five films, playing a range of roles from a brothel owner to a Shakespearean Duchess. And she's just going from strength to strength.
Gutsy, talented and totally unforgettable, click through our gallery to see some of our favorite British actresses of all time.
NEXT: Why 2017 Will Be the Glory Year for Hollywood's British Leading Women »
Related Stories:
• Everyday MAKERS: Who Inspires You?
• Britain's Most Inspiring Women Under 30
Photo Credit: Vivien Leigh via AP Photo