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11 reviews | 3.9 out of 5
I loved Walmart's Great Value Laundry detergent. After years of using Tide, I found the Great Value brand to be superior than Tide in getting my clothes clean and fresh smelling. Then about six weeks ago I discovered that Walmart was no longer carrying their Great Value laundry detergent. I asked an associate and he said it was replaced with Blooming Lavender and Summer Breeze detergents. I was skeptical since the price was even lower than Great Value. IT DOES NOT DO THE JOB. Even my husband asked me why the clothes and bath towels weren't as clean. That sealed it for me. I'm now back to Tide which is a real disappoint since the Great Value detergent was almost half the cost of Tide and a superior producr. I hope someone from Walmart is reading this post! PLEASE BRING BACK THE ORIGINAL GREAT VALUE BRAND LAUNDRY DETERGENT
This would be my second time buying this item; it is great in value and is good washing my clothes. This day and age, we need as much help as we can get without losing the quality we are so use too.
For the value, you can't beat it! It removes the dirt and food grease that our children get onto their clothes. I use it with the GV blooming lavender dryer sheets and the combo is fresh goodness.
first time using. didnt give no smell. didn't wash clothes well.
I started purchasing this due to the cost of the name brand detergent I was using went up so much, I tried MANY others b/4 I came across this one. I am so impressed with the cleaning power it has, it actually beats the name brand I've been using in getting stains out, out of all three scents this one is best, u smell it's clean scent on your clothes longer. The only issue I'm having is my local Walmart and a near by Walmart are NOT stocking it any longer & I'm having to order it online...
I love the fragrance of this product. What little I have used so far seems to have cleaned the items used on very well. So far, so good! At this point in time, will probably reorder when the time comes.
The soap cleans well and has a great fresh fragrance. I think the guys and gals would agree.
If you like to not have fragrant clothes, just do the sheets and towels in this, it is great for a restful sleep with the hint of lavender.
So inexpensive for what you get.
I came upon this detergent by accident when it was given to me by a friend who moved. I was very pleasantly surprised by the nice scent and the fact that it was clear/without dye in appearance. Now I am giving up more expensive brand names for this detergent. Only problem is I can't find it in stores at this time. Only online, or ship to store. Oh well.
Fresh and clean great laundry detergent
This detergent works great with the 3 in1 MicroClean Technology! I wish that someone would have told me that it would no longer be available so that I could have bought more of it before that happened. Hopefully, it will be available soon because it's my favorite detergent!


text: Economic Bulletin September 2014 Türk Telekom [This page is intentionally left blank] Economic Bulletin September 2014 Türk Telekom This bulletin is prepared by Assoc. Prof. Rasim ÖZCAN. September 2014, İSTANBUL Disclaimer This document contains information, text, images, logos, and/or other material that is protected by copyrights, database rights, trademarks, or other proprietary rights. It may not be reproduced, distributed, published or used in any way by any person for any purpose without the prior written consent of the preparer, Türk Telekom (the Company) or in the case of third party materials, the owner of that content. The material contains statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in this material that is not a statement of historical fact is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. The interpretations, estimates and/or opinions reflect the judgment of the authors, not the Company, on the date of this document and are subject to changes without notice. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information used in this report has been obtained from public sources that are believed to be reliable. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this report or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. None of the Company nor any of its shareholders, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Please also note that the views and opinions expressed in the article(s) are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views, official policy or position of the Company. The month of August was full of changes: for the first time the President is elected, there is a new government with a new Prime Minister. And all subsequent effects on politics and economics together with the foreign developments like ECB's and FED's decisions formed the markets and expectations. We all know much about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the first directly elected President of Turkey. However, not many people know that Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Prime Minister of Turkey, has Economics degree as well from one of the most prestigious university in Turkey, Boğaziçi University. Congratulations to both. Their success is Turkey's success. Well! Following the Bulletin's tradition, I discuss Turkey's main macroeconomic indicators along with stock and bond markets' performances as well as exchange rate movements. I also cover leading macroeconomic indicators from US and European economies. This month's special topic is titled as "The Best may not be the Best: Innovation towards Creating Sellable Products," which discusses choices that define a company's direction and its innovation policy, hence its products; probably the whole industry or creation of a new industry or shape the whole society. There are tradeoffs, and the choice is clear: go with the one leading you towards creating sellable products as a result of right innovations. Hope to meet you again in the next issue… Assoc. Prof. Rasim ÖZCAN CEO Advisor Türk Telekom [This page is intentionally left blank] CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………….……………….……….6 WHAT TO WATCH IN SEPTEMBER..….……...............….….……......7 RECAP OF TURKISH MACRO DATA Industrial Production….………………………….……………...8 Capacity Utilization Rate…....…...………...….…………….….8 Unemployment……..…….…...………….................…….........9 Inflation….…...……………..…..…………...….…..….…........10 Foreign Trade Balance….…………..………………………...11 Current Account Balance………..…………….…...……...….12 Fiscal Balance………….…………………………..……..……12 Central Government Debt Stock…………………………......13 Monetary Policy.……...……………………………….....…….14 Consumer Confidence Index.……......…...…….…...……….15 Real Sector Confidence Index……….….....…………………16 Survey of Expectations.…….….......……..…...….…..………16 RECAP OF EU & US MACRO DATA Gross Domestic Product.......…………………………….…...18 Industrial Production………………...………………………...18 Unemployment…………………….……..…………………….19 Inflation….…...……....…......……....………..……..…….…...20 Foreign Trade Balance……….…...…..………………………21 Current Account Balance…….………..………………………22 Consumer Confidence Index………...…...…………………..24 TURKISH MARKETS REVIEW Stock Market………...………....…………………………..…..25 Bonds and Bills Market….……….………..…..……...…..…..26 Exchange Rates…………...…….…...…....…………………..27 Real Effective Exchange Rates..…….….....…………………28 SPECIAL TOPICS The Best may not be the Best Innovation towards Creating Sellable Products……….…...29 MONTHLY CALENDARS (TURKEY & GLOBAL) TÜRK TELEKOM GROUP CORPORATE FACT SHEET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TURKEY EU & US The calendar-adjusted industrial production index increased by 1.4% y/y in June. Compared to one month ago, the capacity utilization rate (CUR) edged down from 74.9% to 74.7% in August. Compared to one month ago, the unemployment rate eased down from 9% to 8.8% in May. Compared to one month ago, the CPI is up by 0.09% in August. Compared to one month ago, the current account deficit is up from US$ 3.5 bn to US $4.1 bn in June. In its meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the upper bound of the interest rate corridor by 0.75%. Now, the O/N lending rate is 11.25%. Compared to one month ago, the consumer confidence index edged down from 73.9 to 73.2 in August. The BIST-100 recorded a minimum of 76,692 and a maximum of 82,094, and closed the month of August at 80,313 (down by 2.7% compared to the end of July). The benchmark bond yield closed the month of August at 9.07%, fluctuating between 8.74% and 9.51%. The yield increased by 6.1% compared to the end of July. According to the flash estimates, the GDP increased by 0.2% in the euro area and 1.2% in the EU28 in 2Q 2013 on year-on-year basis. According to the second estimates for 2Q 2013, compared to the preceding quarter, the GDP in the US increased at an annual rate of 4.2 % (the advance estimate was 4.0%). Compared to one month ago, in July, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable both in euro area and in the EU27. In the US, compared to one month ago, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate went down from 6.2% to 6.1%. On annual basis, the CPI inflation in July registered as 0.4% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU28. The CPI inflation in the US increased by 2%. In August, the consumer confidence index decreased both in the euro area (from -8.4 in July to -10.0) and in the EU 28 (from -5.5 in July to -6.4). In the US, following the revised July reading of 90.3 (revised down from 90.9), the consumer confidence index increased to 92.4 in August. 6 WHAT TO WATCH IN SEPTEMBER TURKEY Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL 177 ml. (September 3). Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL 580 ml. (September 10). The GDP readings for 2Q will be posted (September 10). Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated zer coupon bond with the maturity of 14 months (new issuance) (September 16). Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL 1.34 bn. (September 17). Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated fixed coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 5 years (re-opening) and floating coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 7 years (re-opening) (September 22). Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated fixed coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 2 years (re-opening) and TL denominated fixed coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 10 years (reopening) (September 23). Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL 10.96 bn. (September 24). The Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be held (September 25). EU & US Second GDP estimates for the second quarter will be posted in the EU (September 5). The employment situation for EU (September 5). The Fed's FOMC meeting will begin (September 16). The Fed will announce its interest rate decision as well as its latest summary of economic projections, followed by the Chairman's press conference (September 17). The ECB meetings (September 17-18). The US GDP figures (September 26). 7 RECAP OF TURKISH MACRO DATA Industrial Production Industrial production: 1.4% y/y increase in June Following 3.5% y/y growth in May, the calendar-adjusted industrial production index increased by 1.4% y/y in June. Compared to one month ago, seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production was up by 0.1% in June (after -1% in May). As a reminder, the calendar-adjusted IP has kept increasing on a yearly basis since December 2012. The seasonal and calendar-adjusted industrial production index increased by 0.1% on a yearly basis. The industrial production readings suggest that the wheels of Turkish economy keeps rolling at a faster pace compared to one month ago. Among the main industrial groups, the largest increase was in capital goods by 9.9% in June according to the seasonally and calendar adjusted series. In sub sectors of manufacturing, the largest increase was in manufacture of other transport equipment by 26.8%, followed by repair and installation of machinery and equipment by 10.3% compared to a month ago. Calendar-Adjusted Industrial Production Index 140 30 20 100 10 80 0 60 -10 40 Annual Growth,%-RHS Industrial Production Index-LHS 20 Annual Growth (%) Industrial Production 120 -20 0 -30 3 6 9 12 1 3 6 2008 2009 9 12 1 3 6 2009 2010 9 12 1 3 6 2010 2011 9 12 1 3 6 2011 2012 9 12 1 3 6 2012 2013 9 12 1 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT Capacity Utilization Rate Capacity utilization rate: Not bad Compared to one month ago, the capacity utilization rate (CUR) eased from 74.9% to 74,7% in August and remained at a comfortable level in terms of creating inflationary pressures. Compared to one year ago, the CUR was down by 0.8 percentage points (down from 75.5%). Compared to one month ago, the seasonally adjusted CUR came out as 74.1% in August. In line with the unadjusted series, compared to one year ago, the seasonally adjusted CUR was down by 0.8 percentage points (down from 74.9%). According to the changes compared to the previous year of the 8 CUR level, 11 sectors advanced, one sector stayed the same and 12 sectors have lower CUR levels. Note that domestic developments and global economy, especially FED's decisions and developments in the euro area after ECB's recent moves that aimed to rejuvenate euro area economy will remain as the key drivers to shape the rates in the coming months. 85 Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) in Manufacturing, % 80 75 70 65 CUR, % Seasonally Adjusted CUR, % 60 55 3 6 9 12 3 2008 2009 6 9 12 3 2009 2010 6 9 12 3 2010 2011 6 9 12 3 2011 2012 6 9 12 1 3 2012 2013 6 9 12 1 2013 2014 Source: CBT Unemployment Unemployment rate: Going down Compared to one month ago, the unemployment rate eased down from 9% to 8.8% in May (in May 2013 the unemployment rate was at 8.2%). Unemployment rate realized as 8% for male and 10.5% for female. In the same period, non-agricultural unemployment rate realized as 10.7%. 17 Unemployment Rate, % 15 13 11 9 7 Turkey EA 5 3 6 9 2009 2009 12 3 6 9 2010 12 3 6 9 2011 2011 12 3 61 9 2012 2012 121 3 6 9 2013 2013 121 3 6 9 121 2014 2014 Source: TURKSTAT, OECD, Eurostat Labour force participation rate (LFPR) realized as 51.2% in May. LFPR realized as 71.8% for male and 31% for female. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 9.2% in April to 9.5% in May. As a reminder, in May 2013, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 8.9%. 9 Inflation Inflation! Don't wanna talk about it Compared to one month ago, the CPI increased by 0.09% in August, well above the expectations that was in the negative territory. The highest monthly increase was at hotels, cafes and restaurants with 1.64%. The indices rose for food and non-alcoholic beverages 0.89%, for education 0.75%, for miscellaneous goods and services 0.65%, for recreation and culture 0.59%. On the other hand, the highest monthly decrease was at clothing and footwear at 4.92%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco followed with 0.46% and transportation followed with 0.06%. 12 The Annual CPI Inflation, % 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 3 6 9 2008 2009 12 3 6 9 2009 2010 12 3 6 9 2010 2011 Turkey 12 3 6 9 12 3 2011 2012 EA OECD 6 9 2012 2013 121 3 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT, OECD, Eurostat The annual CPI inflation: At 9.5% in August The annual PPI inflation: At 9.88% in August With the August data, compared to one month ago, the annual CPI inflation kept increasing from 9.3% to 9.5%. Among subsectors, on annual basis the highest increases in the index were for hotels, cafes and restaurants (14.73%), food and nonalcoholic beverages (9.45%), and health (9.08%). Compared to one month ago, the PPI went up by 0.4% in August. Consequently, the annual PPI inflation accelerated from 9.46% in July to 9.88% in August. Among sub-sectors, the highest rates of monthly increases in PPI were indices for food products (1.59%), for leather and related products (1.54%). The highest monthly decrease was at crude petroleum and natural gas (-3.10%) and other transport equipment (-2.76%). For me there is no surprise at the core inflation figures. SCA-H came out as 10.36% and SCA-I came out as 9.68. Both figures show stiffness at the core inflation which is the bad news. As I have been writing for months now that the inertial inflation becomes the main problem in fighting with price stability. Unfortunately, it is overlooked. People's expectations has been deteriorated and hence have to be restored as soon as possible along with the CBT's reputation in order to make the inflation figure come down before the accommodative global economic environment fades away. 10 Foreign Trade Balance Foreign trade deficit: Getting better & better In July, exports and imports were recorded as US$ 13.4 bn (up by 2.6% y/y) and US$ 19.8 bn (down by 13.5% y/y), respectively. Hence, the foreign trade deficit registered as US$ 6.4 bn in July, comparing favorably to the US$ 9.9 bn deficit one year ago and US$ 7.9 bn deficit one month ago. With the July data, the year to-date trade deficit came down to US$ 46.1 bn (compared to the US$ 60.6 deficit same period of one year ago), while the 12-month sum trade deficit narrowed down from US$ 93.6 bn one year ago to US$ 85.1 bn. According to the seasonal and calendar-adjusted series, the foreign trade deficit registered as US$ 6.5 bn in July, comparing favorably both to the US$ 7.5 bn deficit one month ago and to the US$ 8.6 bn deficit one year ago. Foreign Trade Performance, US$ bn (12-month sum) 300 Exports Imports 250 200 150 12-month sum trade deficit: US$ 85.1 bn 100 50 0 3 6 9 12 3 2008 2009 6 9 12 3 2009 2010 6 9 12 3 2010 2011 6 9 12 3 2011 2012 6 9 121 3 2012 2013 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT As compared with the same month of the previous year, exports to the EU-28 increased by 11.1% from US$ 5.4 bn to US$ 6.0 bn. The proportion of the EU countries was 45% in July 2014, while it was 41.6% in July 2013. In July 2014, the main partner country for exports was Germany with US$ 1.361 bn. Germany was followed by the UK (US$ 0.918 bn), Iraq (US$ 0.590 bn) and Italy (US$ 0.589 bn). In July 2014, the top country for Turkey's imports was Russia (US$ 2.152 bn), followed by China (US$ 1.95 bn), Germany (US$ 1.811 bn) and USA (US$ 1.276 bn). Notice that the trade deficit has been narrowing down considerably as a result of more successful export efforts and contracted imports. Exports coverage imports became 67.5% in July, while it was 56.9% one year ago. This is good news especially things surrounding Turkey are moving at the unfavorable direction mostly (worsening situation in Syria an Iraq and their economic burden on top of political, humanitarian and other effects on Turkey. 11 Current Account Balance Compared to one month ago, the current account deficit increased from US$ 3.5 bn to US $4.1 bn in June due to the worse balance on goods. Current account balance: Right direction for y/y With June data, the year-to-date current account deficit registered as US$ 24.2 bn (compared to the US$ 37.1 bn deficit one year ago). The 12-month sum current account deficit decelerated further from US$ 52.9 bn in May to US$ 52.2 bn in June. Current Account Balance, US$ bn (12-month sum) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 3 6 9 12 2008 2009 3 6 9 12 2009 2010 3 6 9 12 2010 2011 3 6 9 12 2011 2012 3 6 9 121 3 2012 2013 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: CBT Although the decrease at the current account deficit continues, it lost its steam a bit as it is point out by the Bulletin in the previous issues. However, the improvement will continue for a while and there seems no difficulty in financing it due to the abundant money supply outside seeking a place with higher return and security. In any case, the current account deficit will stay as a problem for Turkish economy until the necessary structural reforms will be implemented successfully. Fiscal Balance In the first half of 2014, the central government budget revenues went up by 10.3% compared to the same period of the last year by registering TL 210.5 bn. The tax revenues increased by 6.1%, whereas the other items increased by 30.0% in the same period. On the other hand, the central government expenses surged by 13.8% to TL 213.9 bn during the first half 2014. Primary and the interest expenses increased by almost the same rate to TL 187.4 bn and TL 26.5 bn respectively. Consequently, a budget deficit of TL 3.4 bn and a primary surplus of TL 23.1 bn were recorded for the first half of 2014, compared to TL 3.0 bn budget surplus and TL 26.3 bn primary surplus in the first half of 2013. 12 TL bn Revenues Tax Other Expenses Primary Interest Budget Balance Primary Balance Central Government Budget Jan-June Jan-June Change, % 2013 2014 190.9 158.4 32.6 187.9 164.6 23.3 3.0 26.3 210.5 168.1 42.4 213.9 187.4 26.5 -3.4 23.1 10.3 6.1 30.0 13.8 13.8 13.6 -212.5 -12.2 2014 Target Realization/ Target (%) 403.2 348.4 54.8 436.4 384.4 52.0 -33.3 18.7 52.2 48.3 77.3 49.0 48.7 50.9 10.1 123.2 Source: Ministry of Finance The Government targets TL 33.3 bn budget deficit and TL 18.7 bn primary surplus in 2014. As of June, the year-to-date primary surplus equaled 123.2% of the Government's year-end target. In line with the primary surplus, budget balance is better than the target. Based on the budget performance so far this year, one may say the Government will end up better figures than the targets, given the fiscal discipline is maintained in the remainder of the year. Central Government Debt Stock Debt stock: Sliding slowly According to the latest data posted by the Turkish Treasury, TL 590.2 bn central government debt stock was recorded in July (down by 0.55% compared to one month ago). Domestic debt stock (remained almost flat compared to one month ago) was recorded TL 408.2 bn (69.2%), while remaining TL 181.9 bn (30.8%) belongs to external debt stock (down by more than US$ 3 bn compared to one month ago). Central Government Debt Stock, TL bn 700 Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock Total Debt Stock 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 3 6 9 12 2007 2009 3 6 9 12 2008 2010 3 6 9 12 2009 2011 3 6 9 2010 2012 12 3 6 1 9 121 9 12 3,4 3 6 2011 2013 2012 2014 Source: Turkish Treasury 13 In terms of interest type breakdown; TL 378.4 bn (64.12%) of the total debt stock is with fixed interest rate, TL 107.2 bn (18.16%) is with floating interest rate, and TL 104.6 bn (17.72%) is indexed to CPI. Monetary Policy In its meeting in August, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided not to change the one-week repo auction rate (the policy rate) keeping it at 8.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the overnight borrowing rate at 7.50%, whereas the Committee decided to cut the lending rate by 75 basis points to 11.25% from 12.00%. Decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Change Jan 13 5.50 0.00 4.75 % O/N Borrowing Change Rate O/N Lending Rate Change -0.25 8.75 -0,25 Feb 13 5.50 0.00 4.50 -0.25 8.50 -0,25 Monetary policy: Mar 13 5.50 0.00 4.50 0.00 7.50 -1,00 Some cut Dec 13 4.50 0.00 3.50 0.00 7.75 0.00 Enough? 21 Jan 14 4.50 0.00 3.50 0.00 7.75 0.00 28 Jan 14 10.00 +5.50 8.00 +4.50 12.00 +4.25 April 14 10.00 0.00 8.00 0.00 12.00 0.00 May 14 9.50 -0.50 8.00 0.00 12.00 0.00 June 14 8.75 -0.75 8.00 0.00 12.00 0.00 July 14 8.25 -0.50 7.50 -0.50 12.00 0.00 27 August 14 8.25 0.00 7.50 0.00 11.25 -0.75 Source: CBT According to the Central Bank, loan growth is at reasonable levels as a result of tight monetary policy moves and private final domestic demand follows a modest course. "The adverse impact of exchange rate developments since mid2013 on annual inflation is gradually tapering off." As asked in the previous issues of the Bulletin: anybody heard inertial inflation? What about inflation inertia? "[E]levated food prices continue to delay the improvement in the inflation outlook. In this respect, the Committee also evaluated the possible impact of the drought and the geopolitical risks on the inflation outlook." Again this might be new for some but it is not new for you, the loyal readers of the Bulletin as I have kept telling it for the last few issues. Well, it is more than –few– now. The Bank continued as "[i]n light of these assessments the Committee decided to maintain the current stance within a more symmetric interest rate corridor." I was amazed with the giant size and the skewness of the corridor. A small step is taken by the Bank towards fixing it. 14 The Bank goes as "[i]nflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors that affect inflation will be closely monitored and the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook." First of all, inertia has become the biggest problem in fighting with increasing inflation. Although, -pricing behavior– points to inertial inflation, not many is aware of the problem yet. Secondly, "a significant improvement in the inflation outlook" is a statement that needs a definition. If it means decrease in inflation or at least signs towards that, well I am afraid it does not seem it is coming soon. Consumer Confidence Index Consumer confidence: A bit down Compared to one month ago, the consumer confidence index eased down from 73.9 in July to 73.2 in August. It seems the index stabilized just above 73. 90 Consumer Confidence Index 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 3 6 9 12 2009 2009 3 6 9 12 2010 2010 3 6 9 2011 2011 12 3 6 9 12 3 2012 2012 6 9 2013 2013 12 3 6 9 12 2014 2014 Source: TURKSTAT The index of general economic situation expectation in the next 12 months increased by 1.5% (from 98.4 in July to 99.8 in August). This shows that number of consumers expected a better general economic situation in the next 12 months increased compared to the previous month. In addition, compared to a month ago, the index of financial situation expectation of household in the next 12 months period increased by 0.7%. Compared to a month ago, the index of probability of saving in the next 12 months decreased by 5.5% and the index of expectation for the number of unemployed persons in the next 12 months decreased by 4.2%. 15 Real Sector Confidence Index Compared to one month ago, the real sector confidence index fell by 2.2 points to 106.8 in August (the index was 107.5 in August 2013). On the other hand, compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted real sector confidence index is down by 0.3 points to 106.0 in August (the index was 106.7 in August 2013). Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 RSCI SA RSCI 50 3 6 9 12 2009 2009 3 6 9 12 2010 2010 3 6 9 12 2011 2011 3 6 9 12 2012 2012 1 3 6 9 12 2013 2013 1 3 6 9 12 1 2014 2014 Source: CBT According to the unadjusted series, among sub-indices, compared to one year ago, total amount of orders (current situation), amount of stocks of finished goods (current situation), export orders (next 3 months), and general business situation increased. Compared to one month ago, only amount of stocks of finished goods (current situation) and general business situation indices increased; while total amount of orders (current situation), volume of output (next 3 months), total employment (next 3 months), total amount of orders (past 3 months), export orders (next 3 months) and fixed investment expenditure indices decreased. Survey of Expectations The results of August survey of expectations are mostly in line with the expectations. Domestic and global developments increased expectations regarding inflation, whereas decreased expectations regarding the current account deficit and the GDP growth. Probably the most important one grabbing everybody's attention is about the expectations for inflation figures that all of them are on the rise. The 2014 year-end annual CPI inflation expectation increased from 8.30% one month ago to 7.70%. The annual inflation by the end of the next 12 months edged up from 7.27% in July to 7.35% in August survey. 16 The annual inflation by the end of the 24 months increased from 6.73% one month ago to 6.80%. Note that the continued rise at all these inflation expectations is the main problem to tackle. Once again, these results show the inertial inflation is the point that has to be focused on. Central Bank Survey of Expectations Jun 14 Year-End Inflation (%) 8.29 12-Month Ahead Inflation (%) 7.19 24-Month Ahead inflation (%) 6.62 12-Month Ahead One-Week Repo Rate (%) 8.44 Current Year's Current Account Balance (US$ bn) -50.1 Next Year's Current Account Balance (US$ bn) -54.8 Current Year Growth Rate (%) 3.3 Next Year Growth Rate (%) 3.9 Year-End US Dollar Exchange Rate 2.17 12-Month Ahead US Dollar Exchange Rate 2.23 Jul 14 8.30 7.27 6.73 8.07 -50.1 -54.9 3.4 3.9 2.17 2.23 Aug 14 8.70 7.35 6.80 8.39 -49.5 -54.1 3.3 3.8 2.19 2.26 Source: CBT Regarding external balances, the current account deficit forecast for this year was revised from US$ 50.1 bn in July to US$ 49.5 bn in August, while the current account deficit for the next year was estimated as US$ 54.1 bn (after the US$ 54.9 bn deficit estimate in the previous month). On the growth front, the GDP growth rate expectation for the current year decreased from 3.4% to 3.3%, while the GDP growth rate expectation for the next year fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. Year-end US$ TL exchange On the exchange rate front, market players forecasted the yearend and 12-month ahead US Dollar rates as 2.19 and 2.26, rerate expectation: spectively. Considering the 2015 general elections, the FX rates 2.19!!! could be under pressure during the election period. However, as the past shows there might be correction at the rates after the election. 17 RECAP OF EU & US MACRO DATA Gross Domestic Product According to the second estimates published by Eurostat, the GDP remained stable in the euro area and increased by 0.2% in the EU28 in Q2 2014 compared to the preceding quarter. In 1Q 2014, the GDP for Euro area had increased by 0.2% and it had increased by 0.3% for EU28. On year-on-year basis, the GDP grew by 0.7% in the euro area and 1.2% in the EU28, after recording a 1.0% and 1.4% increases in the first quarter. US economy: GDP up by 4.2% in 2Q According to the second estimates for 2Q 2014, the GDP in the US increased at an annual rate of 4.2% (the advance estimate was 4.0%). Recall that in the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 2.1% according to the revised numbers. This upturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in exports and in private inventory investment, accelerations in personal consumption expenditures and in nonresidential fixed investment, and upturns in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports. Industrial Production EU industrial production: Down in June Compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted industrial production (excluding construction) decreased by 0.3% in euro area and 0.1% in the EU28 in June, after dropping 1.1% both in the euro area and in the EU28 in May. Compared to the previous year, industrial production (excluding construction) did not change in the euro area and increased by 0.7% in the EU28 in June. EU & US Industrial Production Index (y/y change,%) 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 -24 3 6 9 12 3 2008 2009 6 9 12 2009 2010 3 6 9 2010 2011 EA 12 3 6 9 2011 2012 EU28 12 3 6 9 2012 2013 12 1 3 6 9 12 1 2013 2014 US Source: Fed, Eurostat 18 On a monthly basis, Ireland (-16.5%), the Netherlands (-3.0%) and Lithuania (-2.7%) had the largest decrease in the member states whereas Malta (+5.2%), Denmark (+2.4%) and Hungary (+1.8%) had the highest increase. On a yearly basis, Hungary (+11.3%), Romania (+9.9%) and Slovakia (+7.5%) had the largest decrease in the member states whereas Greece (-6.9%), Malta (-3.8%) and Latvia (-2.0%) had the highest increase. US industrial production: Up Compared to the prior month, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index in the US increased by 0.4% in July, after having 0.4% (revised from 0.2%) increase in June. On a yearly basis, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index was up by 5.0% in July, after having 4.3% increase in the previous month. Unemployment EU unemployment rate: Stable Compared to one month ago, in July, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable both in the euro area and in the EU28. i.e. no change in the euro area at 11.5% and in the EU28 at 10.2%. Compared to one year ago; however, the unemployment rate decreased in both zones (down from 11.9% in the euro area in July 2013 and 10.9% in the EU28 in July 2013). Eurostat estimates that 24.850 million people in the EU28, of whom 18.409 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in July 2014. Germany and Austria (both 4.9%) are among the states having lowest unemployment rates whereas Greece (27.2% in May 2014) and Spain (24.5%) are the ones with the highest unemployment level. EU & US Unemployment Rate, % 14 12 10 8 6 EA EU28 US 4 3 6 9 12 3 2008 2009 6 9 12 3 2009 2010 6 9 12 3 2010 2011 6 9 2011 2012 12 3 6 9 2012 2013 121 3 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat 19 US unemployment rate: At 6.1% In the US, compared to one month ago, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate went down from 6.2% to 6.1% in August, comparing favorably to one year ago when the unemployment rate was at 7.2%. Recall that the unemployment rate is a significant factor in monetary policy decisions in the US. Unemployment rates in six percentages is a success after hitting 10% in 2009. Inflation In July, the monthly CPI inflation was -0.7% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU28. The EU annual inflation: 0.8% in July On annual basis, the CPI inflation in July came out as 0.4% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU28. Recall that in July 2013 the annual inflation was 1.6% in euro area and 1.7% in the EU28. EU & US Annual CPI Inflation, % 5 4 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 3 6 9 2008 2009 12 3 6 9 12 2009 2010 3 6 9 12 3 2010 2011 EA 6 9 12 2011 2012 EU28 3 6 9 2012 2013 12 1 3 6 9 12 1 2013 2014 US Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat Bulgaria (-1.1%), Greece (-0.8%) and Portugal (-0.7%) are the countries with the lowest annual inflation whereas Austria (1.7%), Romania (1.5%) and Luxembourg (1.2%) are the ones with the highest annual inflation in July 2014. The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés (+0.08 percentage points –pp), rents (+0.06 pp) and maintenance of vehicles (+0.05 pp), while fruit (0.13 pp), vegetables and telecommunications (both -0.11 pp) had the biggest downward impacts. According to the flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the annual CPI inflation in the euro area is expected to be 0.3% in August (after 0.4% in July). 20 According to the seasonally adjusted series, in July, the monthly CPI inflation registered as 0.1% in the US. The US annual inflation: 2% in July On annual basis, the US CPI inflation increased by 2% in July, that is a notch below its level in June, 2.1%. The index for all items except food and energy has risen 1.9% annually in July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as for the 12 months ending June. The energy index has increased 2.6 percent, and the food index has risen 2.5 percent over the same period. Foreign Trade Balance EU trade balance in May: Surplus In June, according to the non-seasonally adjusted time series, a foreign trade surplus of EUR 16.8 bn was recorded in the euro area (after EUR 15.4 bn surplus in May) and a foreign trade surplus of EUR 2.9 bn was recorded in the EU28 (after EUR 0.5 bn surplus in May). EU Foreign Trade Balance, EUR bn 28 20 12 4 -4 -12 -20 -28 -36 3 6 9 12 2008 2009 3 6 9 2009 2010 12 3 6 9 2010 2011 EA 12 3 6 9 2011 2012 EU28 12 3 6 9 2012 2013 12 1 3 6 9 12 1 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat To recall, in June 2013, the foreign trade surplus registered as EUR 15.7 bn in the euro area whereas the foreign trade surplus was EUR 8.6 bn in the EU28. According to the first estimates by Eurostat, during January-May 2014 the deficit for energy narrowed down from EUR 156.6 in January-May 2013 to EUR 145.4 and manufactured goods surplus shrank from EUR 111.1 bn to EUR 101.6 bn. US trade balance in July: Down a bit In the US, compared to one month ago, the seasonally adjusted foreign trade deficit edged down from US$ 40.8 bn to US$ 40.5 bn in July. 21 To recall, the foreign trade deficit registered as US$ 39.4 bn in July 2013. US Foreign Trade Balance,SA,US$ bn -25 -35 -45 -55 3 6 9 12 2008 2009 3 6 9 12 3 6 2009 2010 9 2010 2011 12 3 6 9 12 3 2011 2012 6 9 12 1 3 2012 2013 6 9 12 1 2013 2014 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Account Balance EA current account: EUR 54.5 bn surplus in 2Q The euro area seasonally adjusted current account surplus came in at EUR 54.5 bn in the second quarter of 2014 (2.2% of GDP) compared to EUR 55.6 bn surplus in the first quarter of 2014 (2.3% of GDP). To recall in 2Q 2013, the current account surplus was EUR 61.8 bn (2.6% of GDP). In the 2Q 2014, compared with the 1Q 2014, based on seasonally adjusted data, the surplus of the goods shrank to EUR 40.3 bn compared with EUR 46.9 bn, while the surplus of the services grew from EUR 25.9 bn to EUR 31.6 bn. The surplus of the income account edged down from EUR 13.5 bn to EUR 12.5 bn, and the current transfers deficit was registered as EUR 29.9 bn compared to EUR 30.6 bn. EA Current Account Balance 100 3,0 2,5 80 2,0 60 1,5 40 1,0 20 0,5 0,0 0 -0,5 -20 -1,0 -40 Current Account Balance/GDP, % - RHS Current Account Balance, EUR bn - LHS -60 -1,5 -2,0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat 22 EU current account: EUR 12.0 bn surplus in 2Q The EU28 current account surplus registered as EUR 12.0 bn in 2Q 2014 (0.4% of GDP), compared to the EUR 25.2 bn surplus in 1Q 2014 (0.8% of GDP). Note that, the current account surplus of the EU28 was EUR 47.5 bn in the 2Q 2013. EU28 Current Account Balance 60 1,5 40 1,0 20 0,5 0 0,0 -20 -0,5 -40 -1,0 -60 -1,5 Current Account Balance/GDP, % - RHS -80 -2,0 Current Account Balance, EUR bn - LHS -100 -2,5 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: ECB, Eurostat At the US side, there is no new data release yet. To recall, the current-account deficit increased to US$111.2 bn (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2014 from US$87.3 bn (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2013. The deficit increased to 2.6 percent of currentdollar GDP from 2.0% in the fourth quarter. Consumer Confidence Index In August, the consumer confidence index decreased in both the euro area (from –8.4 in July to -10.0) and the EU28 (from –5.5 in July to –6.4). To recall, in August 2013, the consumer confidence index registered as –15.5 in the euro area and –12.7 in the EU28. EU & Euro Area Consumer Confidence Index 0 Euro Area -4 EU -8 -12 -16 -20 -24 -28 -32 -36 3 6 9 2008 2009 121 3 6 9 2009 2010 121 3 6 9 12 1 3 2010 2011 6 9 2011 2012 12 1 3 6 9 12 1 3 2012 2013 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission 23 In the US, following the revised July reading of 90.3 (revised down from 90.9), the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.1 points to 92.4 in August. As a reminder, in August 2013, the consumer confidence index was at 81.8. US Consumer Confidence Index 100 90 80 US consumer confidence: Check the graph 70 60 50 40 30 20 3 6 9 2008 2009 121 3 6 9 121 3 2009 2010 6 9 2010 2011 121 3 6 9 2011 2012 121 3 6 9 2012 2013 121 3 6 9 121 2013 2014 Source: The US Conference Board According to the Conference Board, "[c]onsumers' appraisal of current conditions continued to improve through August. Those saying business conditions are "good" edged up to 23.9 percent from 23.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are 'bad' declined to 21.5 percent from 22.8 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was also more positive. Those stating jobs are 'plentiful' increased to 18.2 percent from 15.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are 'hard to get' declined marginally to 30.6 percent from 30.9 percent." 24 TURKISH MARKETS REVIEW Stock Market BIST-100: Ended August at 80,313 The BIST-100 recorded a minimum of 76,692 and a maximum of 82,094, and closed the month of August at 80,313 (down by 2.17% compared to the end of July). The BIST-100 went up by 20.96% compared to a year earlier. Turkish stocks were highly sensitive to the domestic and global economic, financial and political developments during August. 95.000 BIST-100 Performance 91.000 87.000 83.000 79.000 75.000 71.000 67.000 63.000 59.000 55.000 51.000 47.000 Source: Borsa Istanbul In the stock market, volatility was at level we get used to. I say – get used to– because this and that major(!) happening is not major at Turkish market players' measure anymore. The range of change was from –3.17% to 2.5% in August whereas it was –2.45% to 1.83% in July. Among 21 trading days, 13 days we saw decrease at the index while 8 days we had increase at the index. Although the political uncertainty about who is going to be the first elected President and the resulting issue of who is going to be the next Prime Minister faded away, it did not help much to BIST100 index as Fed's moves and European Central Bank's decisions together with problems in Syria and Iraq dominated most of the month. In addition, markets were expecting another interest rate cut from the CBT that did not materialize in reality. The CBT made a twist by just cutting the upper bound of the interest rate corridor a bit in order to make everybody happy without effecting the balance of the economy in their mind. The result is an expected one: nobody is happy. 25 Bonds and Bills Market Benchmark: Ended August at 9.07% In the month of August, the benchmark bond yield fluctuated between a minimum of 8.74% and a maximum of 9.51%, closing the month at 9.07%. The yield rose by 6.1% compared to the end of July. In August, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) cut O/N lending interest rate from 12.0% to 11.25% while leaving O/N borrowing interest rate at 7.5% and one week repo rate –the policy rate at 8.25%. Hence, the CBT narrowed down the interest rate corridor from 4 percentage points to 3.75 percentage points by cutting it from the upper bound in an effort to have more symmetric interest rate corridor. So far, the benchmark bond interest rate hovers above the policy rate but inside the interest rate corridor. The market conditions seems keeping the benchmark rate relatively high. This creates reluctance at the CBT side towards cutting the policy rate or moving the corridor down the scale. Rates and Inflation!!! Considering the increasing, at least stiff inflation rate just below two digit figures, the CBT's current position is a difficult one. Though, one should remember the past moves of CBT that eroded its reputation, hence, created inertia in inflation. As this is the case, it is difficult for the benchmark bond rate to come down significantly in the short term without inflation comes down significantly or at least gives signs toward that direction. Recall the governor Erdem Başçı's words: "once bitten, twice shy." This might be more suitable for consumers'/ market players' phycology rather than a central bank's way of thinking. Hence, inflation inertia is a natural result. Interest Rates, % 14,0 14,0 12,0 12,0 10,0 10,0 8,0 8,0 6,0 6,0 4,0 4,0 2,0 2,0 Benchmark Bond Interest Rate O/N Borrowing Interest Rate 1 Week Repo Rate O/N Lending Interest Rate Source: Borsa Istanbul, CBT 26 Exchange Rates TL depreciating According to the Central Bank exchange rates, the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar (buying rate) fluctuated between 2.1263 and 2.1776, closing the month at 2.1619 in August. Compared to the end of July, the Turkish Lira depreciated by 3.35% against US Dollar. 2,50 2,40 US$ TL Exchange Rate 2,30 2,20 2,10 2,00 1,90 1,80 1,70 1,60 1,50 1,40 Source: CBT The CBT's Euro buying rate was traded between a minimum of 2.8448 and a maximum of 2.9036. Compared to the end of July, the Turkish Lira depreciated by 1.40% against the Euro. 2,90 2,80 EUR & US $ Basket 2,70 2,60 2,50 2,40 2,30 2,20 2,10 2,00 1,90 1,80 1,70 Source: CBT Compared to the end of July, the TL depreciated by 2.23% against the Euro & US Dollar basket (where both currencies are equally weighted), closing the month at 2.5074. 27 Real Effective Exchange Rates The CPI based real effective exchange rate registered as 109.3 in August (down by 0.6 points m/m), while the PPI based real effective exchange rate came in at 107.2 (up by 0.2 points m/m). Compared to one year ago, the CPI based real effective exchange rate was down by 2.5 points, whereas the PPI based real effective exchange rate was down by 1.1 points in August. The August figures indicate that the CPI based real effective exchange rates is just by the border of the comfortable zone defined by the CBT. (i.e. between 110 to 120) However, PPI based index is a bit below the lower bound of the comfortable zone. Recall that, an increase/decrease in the real effective exchange rates represents an appreciation/depreciation in the TL in real terms, denoting a rise/decline in the value of Turkish commodities in terms of foreign commodities. Real Effective Exchange Rates 135 130 CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate PPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate 125 120 115 110 105 100 2009 3 6 9 2009 12 2010 3 6 9 2010 12 2011 3 6 9 2011 12 2012 3 6 9 2012 12 2013 3 6 9 2013 12 20143 6 9 12 2014 Source: CBT 28 SPECIAL TOPICS The Best may not be the THE BEST MAY NOT BE THE BEST Best INNOVATION TOWARDS CREATING SELLABLE PRODUCTS Innovation towards Creating Sellable Products Right metrics are said to be the key for successful companies towards creating innovations. Of course, defining a company's goal is the most important element of success. This topic is discussed at the article "Why Companies Fail? The Boiling Frog Syndrome" that appeared in June 2014 issue of the Economic Bulletin. One can articulate the idea in a concise way: the best may not be the best. The article's idea can be generalized to producing sellable products, innovation direction and sustainability of firms. In other words choices made define a company's direction and its innovation policy, hence its products/services; probably the whole industry or creation of a new industry or shaping the whole society. Think about a new design of a jet or the way we board airplanes or introduction of Centrino technology by Intel some eleven years ago. One can extend this list. The bottom line in all these examples is the best may not the one that seems so. Let me explain it by going over the examples one by one. The first one is the Intel Centrino technology that enabled laptops to start replacing desktop computers. For desktop computers one of the central issue was to achieve more speed with each new chip set. The power usage was not in the radar. However, power usage was a big issue for laptop to have a bigger footprint in the market. There were two solutions to the problem: either invent a batteries to store more power or invent a new chip set that uses less power. The latter was what Intel did. With Centrino technology by sacrificing from speed a bit, Intel achieved big power saving, hence longer battery life. That led laptop to start getting more market share. The idea was simple enough: cut the speed of the chip set from its best in order to have much lower power consumption. According to a benchmarking study done by Mobile Mark at the time, Intel Centrino mobile technology-based systems can deliver up to five hours of battery life or more, compared to about four hours on mobile Intel Pentium III processor-M-based system and about 3 hours on mobile Intel Pentium 4 processor-M-based systems. Such a choice increased consumer satisfaction from laptops, gave way to mobile platforms, and can be considered as very early steps of today's tablet era. Although the goal and the best seemed achieving top speed available for a chip set, Intel redefined its strategy as a sellable product that creates higher consumer satisfaction with a speed a little below possible top speed that decreases power consumption a lot. The second example comes from MIT: a new aircraft design decreasing fuel consumption which is the biggest cost item in air transportation. The new design is called "double bubble aircraft design."1 The "double bubble" super-efficient and clean airliner 1 . For more information see http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/news/magazine/aeroastro7/n-3.html or http://www.gizmag.com/mit-doublebubble-green-aircraft/15142/ 29 concept designed by an MIT-led team, was presented with Popular Mechanic's "Breakthrough Award" in 2010. Image: MIT/Aurora Flight, www.gizmag.com Aerodynamic structure and engine design and replacement decide fuel consumption of an airplane. There are some physical restrictions like size of wingspan. At higher speeds wingspan has to be smaller. However, longer wings decrease drag and boost efficiency. Among other design innovations in their project, the important one for the purposes of this article is the reduced cruising speed that enables a longer wingspan. Longer wingspan means more efficient fuel consumption. Similar to the Intel Centrino example, by sacrificing from possible top speed, much more fuel efficiency is achieved. Boarding to an airplane takes time and it is a boring process for passengers. Have you considered why people who will sit at the back of an airplane are boarded first and people who will sit in the front seats are boarded last? Yes, boarding is the third example. Some may say that is the fastest way, some may say it is the most efficient way in terms of minimizing time considering satisfaction levels (will be clear in a bit), some even may say it makes no sense at all, it is just a custom, no one care to change it. There might be a number of ways for boarding passenger to a plane. The first one the usual one that is almost standard across airlines today; boarding starts from the back of plane and then middle of the plane and then the front rows. You walk down the aisle for your seat by the window. Hold on! There is somebody sitting by the aisle in your row. You stop. Put your bag to the overhead bin. She get up in order to let you to reach your window seat. You know what everybody in the aisle is waiting for this process to be completed. Lots of time passes. 30 Another method can be letting people to board randomly. Passengers randomly start to enter their plane, just walk down the aisle, find their assigned seat and put their bags in the overhead bin and sit. Hold on! Yes hold on. People wait in the aisle again for you to put your bag to the overhead bin and to sit. Again time passes. Third method can be letting passengers to sit starting from outside going inside. i.e. window seats first then aisle seats, outsidein. That might create less hassle in the aisle. An improvement over the first two methods. However, you are travelling with your spouse, or grandmother or small child who needs help. Would you be unhappy if you cannot be with her all times? Maybe more efficient but less consumer friendly right? The fourth one is the Southwest Airlines method: no order in boarding and no seat number. (Southwest Airlines is a US low cost airlines) You go in the plane and sit wherever you want. Of course, if it is not taken by someone else. This method eliminates some if not all waiting in the aisle as if someone in front of you blocked the aisle, you may just sit to the row in front of you instead of waiting. However, if you are travelling with your spouse and if there are no two empty seats next to each other available, would you be unhappy? Would you be willing to sit separately, you sitting at the back, your spouse in the front of the plane? Would you? Comparison of the four methods is given by J. Stromberg in his article "the way we board airplanes makes absolutely no sense" at www.vox.com. As seen in the graph, the standard method is the worst among four, whereas Southwest style is the most time efficient one. Boarding Times 30 25 24.48 20 17.25 15 14.92 14.32 Outside-in Southwest 10 5 0 Standard Random Boarding Times, minutes Reproduction of the graph from the cited J. Stromberg article at www.vox.com 31 The question is: is the Southwest method the best one? The answer is no. The algorithm developed by physicist Jason Steffen produces the best result. It is called Steffen method. It is similar to outside-in method but with further complexity. Details of the method are beyond our purposes here. However, the idea is that more complex but more time efficient. Its complexity prevents it to be feasible. Sit tight! The question comes. Which method would you prefer among those five? There is a tradeoff between complexity of the method, passenger satisfaction (sitting together etc.) and time spent for the whole process. All these examples show that the best may not be the best. It is not that one size fits all. In all, sacrifice in one parameter to make huge gains in another hence get overall better products/services. Rather than focusing on one issue or parameter, needs and goals have to be defined, and parameters to achieve those have to be decided. Innovations have to be done in that direction, not aimlessly. Rasim ÖZCAN CEO Advisor Türk Telekom 32 CALENDAR FOR TURKEY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY September 1 September 2 September 3 September 4 September 5 * Household Consumption Expenditures, 2013 * CPI * Real Effective Exchange Rate, * PPI August * Labour Cost Index, 2Q Treasury Cash Realizations, August * House Price Index, June September 8 * Industrial Production Index, July September 10 September 9 * Retail Sales Volume Index, July * GDP, 2Q September 11 * Balance of Payments Stats., July September 12 * Foreign Trade Indices, July * Industrial Turnover Index, July September 15 * Household Labour Force, June * Registered Unemployed, August * Job Vacancies, August September 16 * Construction Turnover & Production September 17 * Short Term External Debt Stats., July Indices, 2Q September 18 * International Investment Position, July * Road Motor Vehicles, July * Outstanding Loans Received from * Income and Living Conditions September 23 * Animal Production Stats., Jan.-June Survey, 2013 * Non-Domestic PPI, August Balance, July-August September 29 September 30 * Consumer Conf. Index, Sept. * Foreign Trade Stats., August * International Reserves and Foreign * Monthly Money & Bank. Stats, August Currency Liquidity, August September 24 September 25 * Sectoral Confidence Indices, Sept. * House Sale Stats., August * Business Tendency Survey, Sept. * No. Of Arriving - Departing Visitors Foreigners and Citizens, August * Natural Gas Stats., August * Central Gov. Budget Primary * Labour Stats., 2013 * Credit Card Exp. Stats., August * General Gov. Debt Stock, 2Q * Consumer Loan Stats., August * Turkey's External Debt Stocks, 2Q * Public Debt Stock, 2Q Characteristics, 2013 * Patent Stats., August * Trademark Stats., August * Capacity Utilization Rate, Sept. * Central Gov. Debt Stats., August * External Trade Stats by Enterprise * Rest of the World Accounts, 2013 Abroad by Private Sector, July September 22 September 19 September 26 * Renewable Energy Sources - Stats. of Bio Ethanol Fuel, 2Q GLOBAL CALENDAR MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY September 1 September 2 September 3 September 4 September 5 € Building Permits € Indistrial Producer Prices € Service Turnover € Indust. Import Prices € GDP, 2Q $ ISM Manufacturing € Retail Sales $ ADP National Employ. Report € Quarterly Balance of Payments, 2Q $ Construction $ Beige Book $ Initial Claims $ Employment Situation $ Trade Balance $ ISM Non-Manufacturing September 8 $ Survey of Cons. Expectations $ Consumer Credit September 10 September 9 $ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey € Longterm Gov. Bond Yield € Key Indicators for the euro area September 11 $ Initial Claims $ Wholesale Trade September 12 € Industrial Production € Employment, 2Q $ Michigan Inflation Expect. (P) $ Michigan Cons. Sentiment (P) $ Business Inventories $ Imports/Exports September 15 September 16 September 17 September 18 September 19 € International Trade in Goods € Labor Cost Index € Inflation (HICP) $ Philly Fed Survey € Euro Area Balance of Payments $ Industrial Production € Job Vacancy € Production in Construction $ Initial Claims $ Composite Indexes $ Capacity Utilization $ PPI $ CPI $ New Residential Construction $ Atlanta Fed Buss. Infl. Expect. $ Empire State Manufact. Survey $ Business Leaders Survey $ Real Earnings September 22 € Flash Consumer Conf. Indicator September 23 $ Richmond Fed Survey $ Chicago Fed Naitonal Activity Index $ NAR Existing Home Sales September 29 September 30 € Buss. Consumer Survey € Flash Estimate EA Inflation € Buss. Climate Indicator for the EA € Unemployment $ Personal Income $ Chicago Purch. Managers Index $ PCE Deflator $ Consumer Confidence $ Pending Home Sales $ Dallas Fed - Texas Retail Outlook $ Dallas Fed Manufact. Survey $ US, € EU Survey September 24 $ New Residential Sales Survey September 25 September 26 $ Initial Claims $ GDP $ Advance Durable Goods $ Michigan Inflation Expect. (F) $ Revised Building Permits $ Michigan Cons. Sentiment (F) [This page is intentionally left blank] Assoc. Prof. Rasim ÖZCAN CEO Advisor [email protected] TÜRK TELEKOM Akatlar Mah. Prof. Dr. Kaya Çilingiroğlu Cad. No. 10 34335 Etiler Beşiktaş Istanbul/Turkey Capital Markets and Investor Relations [email protected] www.ttinvestorrelations.com Tel: +90 (212) 309 96 30 Fax: +90 (212) 352 96 10


text: NEW FLOOR PLAN. Looking for one floor living? This great split ranch, called the Brookhollow, affords the discerning ranch buyer with a unique floor plan. Open concept kitchen with lots of counter space and cabinets as well as a pantry. The cook can still be part of the fun in the family room and dining area. There's a private master suite and bath with 2 walk in closets as well as two additional bedrooms and a bath tucked away for guests. 1st floor laundry is conveniently placed and there's a mudroom entry off the 2 car garage with access to a private powder room. Lots of closet space & room to entertain or just relax. The Estates at Colony Park is a 31 lot subdivision offering large lots from 1.5 acres and up. Were close to major routes, shopping and recreation. If you're looking for a great place to live come to The Estates at Colony Park. Propane tank is leased from supplier.


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Naruto Cartoon
My first and so-far-only Naruto cartoon. :) Really messy though, and it doesn't look like Sakura...
(Sorry heh... it should work now. :) If you wanna see the rest of the album too, click here. http://community.webshots.com/album/93776907ytRSlo)
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About periods
Hello i had sex with my gf 8 days before and after 2 days her periods date is soon...so after sex i had given her unwanted 72...but at the time of sex i used protection at last i removed ..but i didnt ejacuvated inside...then after 48 hrs she taken anothr unwanted 72...but today 5 days are completed from her periods date she is still not got periods...can u help me is she is pregnant or after hows many days she will get periods
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Hello there...I can understand your concern. from the history you have given it is very unlikely that she will be pregnant. since she has taken two high progesterone tablets, it can alter her menstrual cycles. also her to take a urine pregnancy test in 5 days if she doesn't get her menstrual bleeding and consult a gynaecologist for further evaluation.
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Troublesome Disguises
€ 66,99
epub eBook
Sofort lieferbar (Download)
November 2015
BeschreibungTroublesome Disguises examines psychiatric conditions which are not necessarily uncommon, rare or exotic but are challenging for the clinician who may struggle to reach a diagnosis and to set up management strategies. However, with familiarity, these conditions can and should be recognised. This new edition is an exercise in consciousness-raising as well as a warning to beware of diagnostic systems which, despite their many virtues, may become too influential and may perpetuate errors which are to the detriment of patients. For the clinician struggling to understand and treat patients who fail to fit the usual diagnostic categories, Troublesome Disguises provides wise instruction in the virtue of entertaining doubts, as well as practical advice for the assessment and management of atypical cases.
Untertitel: Managing Challenging Disorders in Psychiatry. Sprache: Englisch.
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Erscheinungsdatum: November 2015
Seitenanzahl: 416 Seiten
Format: epub eBook
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM


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Both morphine and hydromorphone are pain medications commonly used after surgery. It is thought at our institution that hydromorphone causes less side effects but this has not been studied. We propose to treat our patients with either morphine or hydromorphone and determine how much nausea, vomiting, and itching they have with each drug
Allocation: Randomized, Control: Active Control, Endpoint Classification: Pharmacodynamics Study, Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment, Masking: Double Blind (Subject, Caregiver, Investigator, Outcomes Assessor), Primary Purpose: Treatment
Post Operative Pain
Morphine PCA, Hydromorphone PCA
Columbia Presbyterian Hospital
New York
New York
United States
Columbia University
Published on BioPortfolio: 2014-08-27T03:42:08-0400
A Study of OROS Hydromorphone HCL vs Morphine in Cancer Pain Patients.
The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the clinical equivalence of hydromorphone and morphine (immediate-release [IR] and sustained-release [SR] formulations) using the "worst pain i...
Spinal Morphine vs. Hydromorphone for Pain Control After Cesarean Delivery
Intrathecal (IT) opioids are commonly administered with local anesthetic during spinal anesthesia for post-Cesarean delivery analgesia. Traditionally, IT morphine has been used but the use...
Intrathecal Hydromorphone for Cesarean Section
Introduction: Cesarean section (C/S) is usually performed under spinal with preservative free morphine for pain relief, but the investigators have a severe shortage of this formulation of...
Trial Comparing Morphine to Hydromorphone in Elderly Patients With Severe Pain
The purpose of this research study is to determine which opiate pain medication (morphine or hydromorphone (Dilaudid)) is more effective in the treatment of acute pain in patients presenti...
Safety and Efficacy Study of Hydromorphone and Morphine
To compare a standard weight-based dose of intravenous (IV) hydromorphone (Dilaudid) to a standard weight-based dose of IV morphine in adults presenting to the ED with acute severe pain...
Predicting postoperative morphine consumption in children.
Morphine is the most commonly used postoperative analgesic for moderate to severe pain in paediatric patients, but there is little research into predictive factors correlating with post-operative morp...
Cautious use and optimal dose of morphine for relieving malignant pain in a complex patient with multiple comorbidities.
Oral morphine remains the drug of choice for the management of severe pain due to cancer as per WHO ladder of analgesia. Providing adequate pain relief in palliative care settings for pain due to canc...
Randomized Controlled Trial of Intravenous Acetaminophen for Post-Cesarean Delivery Pain Control.
Cesarean delivery is a common surgery in the United States with 1.3 million performed during 2009.(1) Obstetricians must balance the growing concern with opioid abuse, dependence and side effects with...
Comparison of Morphine, Morphine-Lidocaine, and Morphine-Lidocaine-Ketamine Infusions in Dogs Using an Incision-Induced Pain Model.
We aimed to compare antinociceptive effects of IV infusions of morphine (M), morphine-lidocaine (ML), or morphine-lidocaine-ketamine (MLK) combined, in a mild-to-moderate pain model in dogs. Eighteen ...
Effect of morphine, methadone, hydromorphone or oxymorphone on the thermal threshold, following intravenous or buccal administration to cats.
To determine the effects of morphine, methadone, hydromorphone or oxymorphone on the thermal threshold in cats, following buccal and intravenous (IV) administration.
An opioid analgesic made from MORPHINE and used mainly as an analgesic. It has a shorter duration of action than morphine.
A narcotic analgesic that can be used for the relief of most types of moderate to severe pain, including postoperative pain and the pain of labor. Prolonged use may lead to dependence of the morphine type; withdrawal symptoms appear more rapidly than with morphine and are of shorter duration.
An opioid analgesic with actions and uses similar to those of MORPHINE, apart from an absence of cough suppressant activity. It is used in the treatment of moderate to severe pain, including pain in obstetrics. It may also be used as an adjunct to anesthesia. (From Martindale, The Extra Pharmacopoeia, 30th ed, p1092)
A benzyl-indazole having analgesic, antipyretic, and anti-inflammatory effects. It is used to reduce post-surgical and post-traumatic pain and edema and to promote healing. It is also used topically in treatment of RHEUMATIC DISEASES and INFLAMMATION of the mouth and throat.
An opioid analgesic used similarly to MORPHINE in the control of moderate to severe pain. (From Martindale, The Extra Pharmacopoeia, 30th ed, p1097)
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You can easily manage your booking right here! Within one step you can add or remove tour services, modify your booking, make a payment.
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Paraneoplastic pemphigus associated with dendritic cell neoplasm and Castleman's disease: report of a new case and review of the literature
Case Report
- First Online:
- Received:
- Accepted:
DOI: 10.2478/s11536-012-0097-6
- Cite this article as:
- Roca, B., Pitarch, G., Soler, F. et al. cent.eur.j.med (2013) 8: 153. doi:10.2478/s11536-012-0097-6
- 66 Downloads
We report on a patient with longstanding multicentric Castleman's disease, hyaline-vascular type, who developed a follicular dendritic cell sarcoma, and finally presented a fatal paraneoplastic pemphigus. We review all four cases of such a triple association described in the literature so far.
KeywordsCastleman's disease Follicular dendritic cell sarcoma Paraneoplastic pemphigus
Copyright information
© Versita Warsaw and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013


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Don: First DayMature
I heard the bell ring and knew that I was going to be late. I was completely lost. Stupid new school.
I saw this pretty girl walking towards me, clearly in her own little world. I smiled, unsure if she had seen me or not. She passed me and I hadn't even popped up on her radar. Never mind.
I noticed that she had dropped a book and I was about to call down the corridor to her when I picked it up and saw the title: "Abnormal Abilities of Humans".
I looked at it, deep in thought. "I wonder," I mumbled under my breath.
I could hear someone running down the corridor in my direction, but I thought nothing of it. I was captured by the spell of the book. I wanted to open it, to read it's secrets and see what it could tell me but then the pitter-patter of the runner stopped just beside me. My head snapped up, feeling her eyes staring at me. It was the pretty girl.
"Oh, sorry, is this yours?" I tried to smile at her as I handed over the book, still intrigued by it.
"Yeah. Thanks." She seemed a little on edge. I flashed her a confident smile but I think it put her off having a conversation. "I'm late so." She mumbled to the floor, hiding the book in her bag.
"I don't suppose you could help me. I'm new you see. I need to get to Math. Which way?" I looked at her hopefully, reaching out my hand. "I'm Don, by the way."
"Evelyn. This way." She looked at my hand, reluctant to shake it. She started walking and so, like an obedient dog, I followed her.
"That's an interesting book, Evelyn." I thought that I'd be friendly and strike up a conversation. Bad idea. She stopped suddenly, making me bump into her. As she turned to face me, I could see fear in her eyes and that scared me. She looked over my shoulder, scanning the corridor behind me.
"Don't talk about the book." She was sharp with me - it was the fear talking.
"Ok." I nodded but I don't think she saw me.
"In here." She took one last look at me before opening the door to the classroom and walking in. I was worried about what I was going to find on the other side of the door so I hung back for a second. I heard a lot of noise - it sounded a bit like laughing and shouting but I took no notice of it. I could see the teacher sat at their desk, trying to calm the class but failing miserably. This was going to be an interesting lesson.
I looked to my fingers and noticed that they were going slightly brown. Not again.
There was a photo on the wall and I leaned in towards it, not taking in the details but using the glass frame to see my own reflection. There was a little bit of her fear in my eyes. I clamped my eyes shut and took a deep breath, noticing that when I opened them, the fear was gone. My fingers went back to being their normal colour. With one more deep breath, I stepped into the classroom, ready and willing.


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Tangled Rapunzel Tower
Disney Tangled Rapunzel tower with figures as shown. Very good condition, Smoke free home.
Jinxy Photography
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Intelligent Lending ltd (Credit Broker). Capital One is the exclusive lender.
Disney Tangled Rapunzel tower with figures as shown. Very good condition, Smoke free home.
This fabulous robot kit lets you build your very own robot, brand new in box
Lovely Disney Rapunzel doll 20". The cape can be removed. £11 + P&P or collection.
MAMAS AND PAPAS POPPY AND MUSTARD NEUTRAL NURSERY BUNDLE Used but in great condition. The bundle includes: 1 x Cot/junior Bed Quilt 1 x Cot Bumper 1 x Fleece Blanket 1 x Lampshade 1 x room tidy / storage hanger with three pockets (also
Most with tags in good condition Various bears and animals Collection from Lowestoft
A used pink bumbo, some yellowish discolouration unfortunately as it's otherwise intact
Baby or toddler carrier in excellent condition. Baby sits on the seat on your hip. Very easy to use and is very well made with sturdy safety buckle. Colour is dark green.
Pink baby bath used but in perfect condition! Does the job and keeps them clean 😀! Collection only.
True Intelligence for Both Monitor & Sensor The Nellcor™ pulse oximetry system with OxiMax™ technology establishes a new milestone in patient safety monitoring that can impact clinical settings from the everyday to the extraordinary. This new sensor
Dress up Doll with 3 outfits and accessories From pet/smoke free home great condition.


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The night the World Cup hopes vanished
Trip Start May 23, 2010
31Trip End Jun 24, 2011
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After a hot and rainy night, we had to leave the Guesthouse in Chiang Khong at 8.30am. First, we drove to the Mekong and then crossed it with all our luggage on speed boats. There we spend a long time sorting out visa's and buying what was needed for the day on the boat. When we finally got on the slow boat, it was already so full that our luggage had to be left on the Deck. We were lucky it wasn't high season when about 120 people get crowded on these boats, we were only about 80. So there was plenty of space on the narrow, wooden benches. We soon discovered that the floor was actually the better option. All the being uncompfortable, however, was forgotten when looking around and taking in the unique scenery along both sides of the river. The next 7 hours were spent chatting, reading, looking, sleeping ... time passed quicker than expected. It also turned out that we were lucky because with our luggage being stored on Deck meant we were off the boat first and therefore managed to find a lovely Guesthouse with view over the Mekong, the next hours we spend making the most of that view and having a nice chat with the other guests who had all been on the boat with us. Clare went to bed early that night, so I stayed out with some other people and later watched the dreadful game between Germany and Spain. The first regret of this holiday, it definately wasn't worth staying up until 3.30am!!! On my return to the hotel, I also found myself locked out but luckily Clare had set herself an alarm to let me in... the mosquito's would have eaten me alive!


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Bought an Android tablet and looking for the best Android apps to download first? Whether you've bought a Nexus 7 or an Amazon Kindle Fire HDX 7, we pick 5 Google Play essentials you need in your life pronto.
Another year, another barrage of Android tablets all trying to pose as better alternatives to the iPad Air or iPad Mini. From the second generation Google Nexus 7 to the surprisingly decent Tesco Hudl, there have been plenty of highlights to go with some lowlights (ahem, Argos MyTablet).
Along with the rapidly improving hardware, the Google Play store is racking up a more impressive collection of apps and has finally made finding tablet-optimized apps easier with a new 'Designed for tablet' section.
If you own an Android tablet that's not an Amazon Kindle Fire HDX 7 or 8.9, then you'll have access to Google Play. Amazon tablet owners will have to make do with the Amazon Appstore that still offers access to Android apps but currently doesn't match the catalogue of content available in Google's own app store.
Most tablets will have a good selection of Android apps already pre-installed including Google's own apps like GMail, Google Plus and YouTube. To help kickstart your new tablet life, we've selected five more Android apps available in both Google Play and the Amazon Appstore we think you should be packing onto one of the multiple homescreens as well.
A separate page for each app?? #fail
I've commented about this on the CES article - this is only five pages, that was fifteen! Trusted Reviews used to be my "go to" website for technology information but, in its current desperately bad incarnation, I find myself using other sites more, and this one less and less. TR is in danger of becoming a dinosaur - heading towards extinction - maybe because of some cataclysmic event, but more likely because it has become unfit for purpose.
I hope that the Trusted Review editor will respond to these criticisms - both in words and in actions... an explanation and a re-design.
This is ridiculous. Only one half-way decent app in Camera Awesome (Camera ZOOM FX is many multiples of just so much better) and they freaking recommend NETFLIX??? WTH? Well, I guess I won't be sticking around this site for info about my brand new Nexus 7. Add to this nonsense the format of this article (separate pages for each item), now that is atrocious. As 90's recording artist Sagat would say... FUNK DAT!
Page for each app - So they maximise the amount of ad views meaning more money. Why have only one page load when you can have 5.
Page for each app - So they maximise the amount of ad views. Why have only one page load when you can have 5.
It is now January 2014 - still no link to keep in the google drive web interface or google itself. Still no way of having a pic that's in your drive in a note in keep - pics from your PC only. Just the links would be useful.
More information -
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i find the tops warmer and better when running in winter/cold rain but any old compression/tight fitting top does that, the Champion ones are just as good at £15 a top vs £55 for the top brands. I do have a skins top and shorts pack, but it was a gift, i wouldnt pay that much for them, they feel no better or higher quality than the nike combat range that cost half the price, they do feel better quality than the cheaper Champion ones, but i wear them so infrequently it really doesnt matter.
+1 for Millsy, i use cheap Nike but don't think it helps me with my times, just means I don't walk around like John Wayne.
Tops are great too in cold and wet weather. I wear a more mile long sleeve top, cost around a tenner.
Skins are very pricy but they may out live the cheaper options. I had some cheaper shorts and the waist band broke away after a couple of months, where as the skins are still strong. I only buy them when there is a good sale somewhere though.
Amazon are having a great sale at the no on skins
They have loads of great stuff on sale too.
They look gooood.


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The revolutionary design of the Arc Mouse combines the comfort of a desktop mouse and the portability of a notebook mouse. Arc Mouse folds to 60% of its fully expanded size when youre on the go. Two color options to match your personal style.
The 2.4 GHz wireless USB micro-transceiver connects wirelessly right out of the box with virtually no interference Folds For Portability
Mouse folds to 60% of its fully expanded size using the strong metal hinge. Folding the mouse closed automatically turns it off.
Scroll Wheel
Save time and effort with the scroll wheel navigate documents and Web pages without using the on-screen scroll bar.
Battery Status Indicator
You won't get caught with a dead batterythe Battery Status LED Indicator glows red when the battery is running low.
Snap-in Transceiver
Micro-Transceiver snaps into the bottom of the mouse.
Use your mouse with your left or right handambidextrous design makes it comfortable either way.
Designed for Notebook PCs
Compact and comfortable


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Previous: Hanna A Hanna B Next: Hanna Kay
AKA:Analise, Anna, Anna A, Anna B, Anya Shahova, Hanna B, Hannah, Hannusya
Born [dd-mm-yyyy]: 05-11-1983
Birthplace: Ukraine
First Seen: 2006
Last Seen:
Measurements: 32-24-34 / 81-62-87
Height: 5'5 / 1.66
Hair Colour: Brown
Breasts: Medium (Real)
Official Site:
Interview Page:
Agency: MODELBANK
Appears with: Inna Q (x3), Eve (x1), Natasha D (x1), Inna E (x1)
Categories: Glamour, Lez
Tags: Ukraine , brown hair , medium natural breasts
Favourite of: 384 members
"She looks so wild !" ( LionelAdam )
Page Credits: Midwest Davey , jackass , Sasha , RASDARK , maulrat , Mikey , fingerling , Davey , zavana , Skull , 918guy , PaCo , star-man-20
Tell me more?
ZEMANI biography:
I am a nanny. I enjoy spending time with kids. We read, play and we have fun! We learn from each other. Also I like all new innovations like movies and games in 3 dimension format. I am keen on animation and I learn Maya program product at the Film Institute. Studying here is hard but very interesting. I've already made a lot of friends from different countries. Hopefully one day I will be famous and I will work at Disney.
THENUDE biography:
Appeared in Ukraine Penthouse magazine.
EROTICBEAUTY (Anna B & Anna A)
GODDESSNUDES (Analise)
METART (Hanna B)
METMODELS (Anna A & Anna B)
METMOVIES (Hanna B)
ZEMANI (Hannusya)
ZEMANI VIDEO (Hannusya)
Add New Web Link
Free Ones: Anya Shahova (http://www.freeones.com/html/a_links/Anya_Shahova/)
but Gia B is more pretty and white skin


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IS the spammer back???
I went on the wikipedia and saw a page named Poops/Craps. This is what it said........
Poops/Craps are things animals drop from their big juicy butts. Sometimes monkeys will fling them at you. On the 4th of July some animals will give you explosive diarrhea or called fireworks. If eaten this poop will give you the craps for a week.
This sounds like the works of the spammer. His IP Code was 126.96.36.199 then he made an account Monchoman45. Please help investigate and see if he was the spammer.


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The Mirror Crack'd
The cycle of time is constant. Events that have come to pass, that will come to pass, that must come to pass if time is to continue and mankind is too flourish. There are those however, that resent the tyranny of such a destiny and will do anything to break rule over them.
The day Gwyneth Leodegrance's life changed was no different to the rest of the days that had gone before it that summer, except that it was the day before Arthur's sixteenth birthday. It was warm, they'd spent the day at Arthur's house and the gang were playing football. Kay had taken the goal, Laurence and Arthur viciously tackling one another. Morten, Arthur's half brother, was hanging back slightly attempting to avoid the flailing limbs and powerful kicks looking for an opportunity to take the ball from them and score. Gwyneth herself was sitting on the curb legs stretched out half watching, amused, and half listening to Laurence's younger sister, Evelyn. The girl was two years younger than the rest of them at only fourteen and Gwyneth was trying to take an older sister role for her. Goodness knows, she needed a better role model than Laurence!
"Hey Gwen?" came the shy voice of Eve. Gwyneth glanced over at her. Large worried eyes stared up at her.
"What do you do when you like someone?" she asked, hand pulling at her t-shirt hem. Gwyneth idly pushed her hands away from doing so.
"I don't know, it depends on who you like Eve," she said, kindly. Eve frowned in thought, hands returning to tugging at her clothing.
"What did you do when you realized you liked Arthur?" she asked, looking at him as he was shoved to the pavement by Laurence, pretense of football abandoned, they began wrestling.
"He asked me," she said, shortly. Relationships were not her strong point. Relationship advice, especially not. Eve glanced down again and was quiet.
"What if they'll never ask you?" she asked, quietly. Her tone bore a trace of sorrow and Gwen turned to her properly, giving Eve her full attention.
"Who is it?" she asked gently. Eve opened her mouth to answer and then a bang. Flesh hitting metal and the screech of tires as a car shot down the street. She turned at a scream of horror from Karine and a yell from Ambrose, her eyes seeking what had caused it. A green car disappearing down the street at an insane speed and her friend gathering around a fallen person lying prone… not just any person, Arthur. She felt like she'd been hit, all the air had deserted her lungs and her mind wouldn't process anything. Everything was focused on Arthur lying there in the road. Not moving, lifeless. She staggered to her feet as Karine rushed past her, followed by Ambrose…
"Sir, Ma'am, we a nearly there," came a quiet voice. She glanced up, torn from her memories. Next to her her father looked equally distant. He nodded, swallowing hard. He glanced to her and they shared a look of father to daughter.
"Never gets easier," he said quietly. Gwen nodded, not trusting herself to speak. She still missed Arthur, killed by a hit and run driver in a senseless accident two years ago. This was the anniversary of his death and the yearly memorial had come round once again. Last year had been hard, she'd hoped this year would be easier but it hadn't been, it couldn't be really. They may have been young but Gwen could say without hesitation that Arthur was the love of her life. It was as hard as ever to face that Arthur was gone. It just felt so wrong, like the world itself had changed with his loss. The car pulled up and her father's chauffeur opened the door for them to exit. They had pulled up near a small church, hidden away in a grove of trees. It was a beautiful and peaceful place, before she had gone to university she had come here sometimes. When the stress of exams had gotten to much, or when she had missed the old gang and their antics. She'd sit by Arthur's grave and tell him about how she was struggling in Maths again or some other tidbit. Then she'd wish aloud that he was here, to help her get through it all. Even though he was worse at school work than her.
In the time she spent by his grave she remembered his laid back attitude, how he'd brush of work right up until the deadline. She remembered when she was worried about something he'd drag her out to hang out with their friends until the problem didn't seem that bad anymore.
Their friends…
Another thing she missed dearly. After Arthur died they had drifted apart. Kay went to a college specialising in Business. Laurence and Eve had moved, having been entrusted to a new guardian. Even Morten was very distant, spending more time with his mother and stepfather. Although she had heard through her father that Ambrose had him interning at Drake Industries now that he was the only Drake heir.
They walked through the cast iron gate of the church. Both her and her father in silence. Up ahead, Ambrose was greeting the guests.
"Good afternoon Kingsley, Gwenyth. I'm glad you could make it," he said, in a sombre tone. Her father took his hand an shook it firmly.
"You know we wouldn't miss it Ambrose. I was very fond of Arthur. So was Gwen," he said. Gwen was surprised to hear the slight tremor in his voice. Ambrose nodded and once again thanked them for coming and the directed them into the church.
Here they met Karine, dressed in black and looking tearful, guiding people to their seats. She smiled at them weakly.
"Oh Kingsley, Gwen. Thank you for coming. I really appreciate it. I know Arthur would too if he were here," she said, pulling a handkerchief from her jacket pocket. She dabbed her eyes. Gwen felt sorry for her. She'd lost her only son that day. Without warning, Karine through her arms around Gwen and held her tight.
"Mrs. Drake…," she murmured, embarrassed at the show of affection. Karine let her go, but kept her hands on her shoulders.
"Look at you. You've grown so much. You really must come by and visit more often Gwen. I hope Kingsley doesn't mind me saying but you were… are like a daughter too me. You were Arthur's girlfriend and I've no doubt he'd have married you. You're always welcome at my door,"
Gwen felt the ball of emotion in her throat threaten to well up into tears. She sniffed and looked at her shoes, trying her best not to cry.
"Thanks Mrs. D," she whispered. Karine sniffed and let her go. Gwen was almost grateful when she directed them to her seats. They sat down, Gwen still fighting tears and her father still curiously silent. The low murmuring in the Church died as the Vicar stood in pulpit.
"Welcome everyone. I would like to thank you all for coming. Today we have gathered here to honour the memory of Arthur Drake. A young man who was kind, generous and loving,"
The vicar continued on but, like last time and the time before Gwen found herself tuning out. The vicars words sounded hollow to her. Impersonal. Instead she distracted herself by examining who had attended. A whole host of Ambrose's business friends and associates. Including Hector Knight and his son Kay. Grief that was still raw showed plainly on both the Knight's faces.
Hector had raised Arthur until Ambrose had tracked him down shortly before he turned 14. In many ways Arthur had been Hector's son and Kay's brother. Her gaze moved on. It found the Lot family, much too her surprise. Moira had been married to Arthur's father when he'd had the affair with Karine that would eventually lead to Arthur's birth.
He'd let Moira pregnant and penniless. She'd married a wealthy banker named Jude Lot. They'd had four sons together. Jude had given them all silly names. Her father had disapproved, she knew that much. Her gaze moved on, more people she didn't know and finally… her heart leapt.
Laurence. His sister Eve as well with the looks of it. They were sitting with a middle aged man she couldn't identify, perhaps their new guardian?
She turned back to the front. The Vicar was finishing his speech and asking them to pull out the hymn books. The next hour or so passed with prayers and speeches and hymns. At one point, her father had placed his hand over hers and had smiled at her. Perhaps he'd sensed her discomfort with the service. She'd turned away, not wanting him too see how much the gesture had meant.
The service ended and Gwen was almost happy to be out of the church and into the fresh air. Her father placed his hand upon her shoulder.
"Well you be okay?" he asked quietly. She nodded. Even though that was the opposite of what she felt. Small groups were forming. The church grounds were filled with low murmuring. Gwen leant against the church wall and screwed her eyes shut.
It had been two years. Why did this still affect her so much? Why did she always feel so guilty? Why couldn't she move on from Arthur? She had moved on everywhere else in her life, she'd gone to university even.
Her eyes snapped open.
"Laurence… hey…," she said. Her voice failing her. They stared at each other awkwardly.
"Long time no see…," he said, rubbing the the back of his neck. He didn't meet her eyes. Gwen didn't really want him too.
"Yeah… I've been busy with… university and stuff," she found herself saying. Laurence chuckled nervously and smiled.
"Oh that's great. You got into uni? Which one?" he asked, he seemed genuinely interested.
"Winchester. The University of Winchester. I'm studying Sociology there," she explained. Laurence laughed again.
"Oh man, what a coincidence! Me and Eve just moved to Winchester,"
"What!?" she found herself saying, louder than she intended. Several nearby people turned to see the source of commotion. She flushed and shuffled her feet. Laurence seemed surprised by the horror in her voice but nevertheless he offered an explanation.
"Eve just got this new sponsorship for her swimming. We moved there so we had access to the facilities they built recently,"
Eve had always been good at swimming, Gwen recalled. It had surprised no one when she started winning races but even Gwen had to admit she didn't think Gwen was up to the standard of national and international competitions but judging by what she heard on the news she'd was definitely up to the challenge. Gwen sighed.
"How is Eve doing?" she asked, wanting to change the subject.
"She's fine. Good. Enjoying being in the spotlight. Look Gwen, I…,"
Gwen cut him off with a flick of her hand.
"No. I know what you're going to say and no. Let's not get into it," she said. Laurence looked at the floor. Gwen looked across at the gathering. Some groups were beginning to split up as their participants headed home. She spotted her father deep in conversation with Ambrose.
"I'm sorry," said Laurence, finally. Gwen stared at him.
"I'm sorry for everything. Hurting you, the way I acted like a massive jerk at Arthur's funeral. I was stupid and angry. I took it out on you,"
Gwen blinked back tears.
"I… I don't know what to say. I never thought I'd see the day Laurence du Lac apologises for being a giant blockhead," she responded, softening her words so Laurence would know she didn't mean to hurt him with them. He grinned at her a little.
"So maybe I could get your number and we could go for a drink. Talk about old times, y'know?" he asked. Gwen hesitated before making her answer.
"Sure. Give me your number and I'll call you when I'm back in Winchester," she said. They traded info and chatted a while before they were approached by the man Gwen had noted earlier.
"Ah Laurence, here you are. I had started to suspect you'd escaped," he said, smiling. Laurence grinned in response.
"Gwen this is Martin, he's our legal guardian," Laurence said, stepping back to allow Martin closer. Gwen smiled at him at shook his hand when Martin held it out.
"Hello Gwen, are you Kingsley's daughter? I'm Martin Sylvestris. I got landed with Laurence and Eve, for my sins," laughed Martin. Gwen couldn't help thinking that his happiness was a bit out of place at a memorial service but too her knowledge he hadn't known Arthur. It still hit her a bit disrepectful though.
"Oh Laurence, I almost forgot Eve was looking for you," Martin said. Laurence sighed and rolled his eyes.
"Okay, sure, I'll go find her," he groaned before jogging off.
"We're leaving soon Laurence. Wait by the car okay?" Martin called after him. Laurence waved his hand in response.
"Good kids. Can be handful sometimes," said Martin. Gwen just laughed nervously. Martin was odd. Even for an old business associate of Laurence's father. The stood in silence for a while, watching the assembled people. Even more were drifting away now.
"You were close to Arthur?" Martin asked suddenly. Gwen blinked.
"Um yes, we were dating when… when the accident happened. I was there," she said, looking at the ground. Martin sighed.
"It wasn't an accident Gwen," he sounded almost frustrated, angry. Gwen stared at him. Martin stared back. Gwen clenched her fists.
"It was an accident. A stupid, stupid accident," she said slowly. Martin turned away, a look that Gwen couldn't quite decipher on his face.
"A hit and run. With a stolen car. The driver swerved to hit Arthur. He was going at sixty miles an hour, far too fast for a sleepy neighbourhood like Arthur's," he said. Gwen felt her eyes widen.
"How do you know that?" she asked quietly. After the accident she'd wanted to believe in it being a massive conspiracy. She couldn't believe that a mere accident had taken Arthur away from her. It had been painful coming to terms that it had just been a stupid accident.
Yet, Ambrose had sworn them all to secrecy regarding the details. She doubted even Laurence would go against that and tell this man. Martin looked at her and smirked. An actual smirk.
"I'm closer to the Drake family than you know. Ambrose believes someone killed Arthur on purpose. He's spent a lot of money trying to find out who," stated Martin. Gwen struggled to keep her breathing under control.
"Hey Martin, you coming or am I driving us back?" Laurence yelled from the gates of the church yard. The yard was all but empty now. Just her father and the Drake's finishing their conversation judging by the hand shaking going on.
"Ah, my cue to leave. Goodbye, Gwenyth Leodegrance," Martin said, walking away. He passed her father with a nod. Gwen stared as he went, unable to remove her eyes from the strange man who'd shattered her tenous belief in the circumstances surrounding Arthur's death.
"Hey Gwenno, are you ready to go?" asked her father as he reached her. She nodded, unable to quite gather her thoughts to answer him properly. She was glad he mistook her shock for grief. She didn't want to answer questions as to what had shocked her at the moment.
Later, when they arrived home Gwen asked her father about who Martin Sylvestris was and what he did. He father had grimaced at the name.
"Damn hippy," he'd muttered at first, which had made her even more curious about him.
"He's an architect. He specialises in eco-housing and the stuff. Renewable energy. Ambrose adores as he helped him and Luther out of a tight spot back when they'd just taken over the company,"
And that was all she'd gotten out of her father. Still she wondered just who he was? How'd he know about Arthur's accident? What "favour" had he done for Ambrose?