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You are currently browsing the monthly archive for January 2011.
A simple and common justification for public sector unions is that the government is a monopsonist for many occupations, meaning they are the only employer. Just as a monopolist will set prices above an efficient level, a monopsonist will set wages below an efficient level. Unions can bargain wages up to a more efficient level in this case. So the logic is that the government will set monopsonist wages unless a public sector union exists to bid them up to the efficient level. In short, the government can't be trusted to set wages efficiently.
Yet when a natural monopoly exists, it is the government we often seek to entrust with the power to set prices at the efficient level, and we assume they will behave as a benevolent dictator. There are many places where we trust the government to benignly set prices if they are going to fulfill some valuable role. For instance, gas taxes and road tolls. Yet we don't worry that the government will behave as a monopolist here and set prices inefficiently high. In fact, in these cases quite the opposite occurs.
An empirical problem with this argument for public sectors is that there is a clear public sector union wage premium just as there is in the private sector. If wages were being bargained up to market level, then this wouldn't be the case.
I believe the debate on public sector unions is strongly influenced by status quo bias. If they did not exist, I doubt many would be arguing that for economic reasons they should come into existence.
Economists have been so busy in recent years fighting over government policy that we have forgotten to take time to do what we do best, freakout people of all political stripes with our hyper-rationality. I will take this opportunity.
Lots of things have been said in the wake of the Arizona shootings about the need to rethink congressional security, gun laws, etc. Most of this has gotten some pushback except for the idea that the shooting is a reason to tone down rhetoric. This has lots of people nodding.
But is it true? Is the shooting a reason to tone down rhetoric?
One of the things that got everyone in a tizzy over the last few years is the debate over ObamaCare. I have argued that this is a much smaller deal than people believe because health insurance is a much smaller deal than people believe. In particular I argued that health insurance is not very effective at delivering health and so either way you slice it, its hard to break something that doesn't work very well to begin with.
However, this is a minority view. Most people think health insurance does matter. And, indeed I could be wrong. If health insurance does matter then our health insurance policy likely matters. Especially if what is on the table is the potential to expand health insurance coverage or institute death panels. The Urban Institute for example estimated that 22,000 people a year were dying because of a lack of health insurance. Those people are just as dead as people who are murdered by a gunman. Lets use those numbers as our health insurance baseline.
Now, suppose that you have the choice of providing gruesome rhetoric that will increase the probability of a killing spree but will also increase the probability of the passage of Universal Health Insurance. Suppose using the Arizona case as a baselinewe say that the average killing spree causes the death of 6 people. Then if your rhetoric is at least 6/22,000 = 1/3667 times as likely to produce a the passage of universal health insurance as it is to induce a killing spree then you saved lives by engaging in fiery rhetoric.
Let me go over this again. Suppose that every politician and pundit chose to" tone it down" out of fear of a killing spree. Now suppose that because of that ObamaCare did not pass and the Urban Institute is correct that 22K people died every year as a result. However, the tone down also worked and there were no killing sprees. Then because of the choice of everyone to tone it down 19,994 people more people died. That is, the toning down of rhetoric killed nearly seven times as many people as were killed on 9/11. This would be among the worst policy choices available.
I used numbers that argue in favor of universal health insurance because they were easily at hand. However, the same thing holds for those who believe that Universal Health Insurance would worsen the quality of care. They too believe that at stake is the lives of thousands of people and so sensibly engage in hostile rhetoric.
One of those two positions is wrong. On net passing ObamaCare must either increase, decrease or hold constant the number of premature deaths. However, the key is to realize that its really bad to be wrong. Not that it's really bad to engage in hostile rhetoric.
If there is one thing to take away from the shooting its that being wrong has consequences. And, if you genuinely care about the shooting death of six people then you ought to really, really care about endorsing wrong public policies which will result in the premature death of vastly more people. Hence you should devote yourself to actually discovering the right answers to these questions, rather than than coming up with ad hoc rhetoric – violent or polite – in support of the policy you happend to have been attracted to first.
Matt Yglesias embraces dovishness
Another way of looking at this is that we don't really know what the world will look like in 25 years. But it's predictable that whatever military challenges we face, they'll be easier to deal with if we have a better-educated crop of twenty-somethings rather than a worse-educated one. That they'll be easier to deal with if we have a productive economy with a modern infrastructure than if we don't. . . . Obviously the long run does you no good if your country can't defend itself in the short-term, but a strategy based on perpetually higher commitments to defense spending is self-defeating over time.
Worrying obsessively about particular problems you might encounter in the future will undercut your ability to deal with the generalized problems that will definately occur in the future. In general the best way to deal with the future is to work on problems that actually exist today, so that you have more capacity to deal with the unexpected problems of tomorrow. Now to convince the world that this argument applies equally well to the deficit and climate change.
Greg Mankiw has an essay on economic morality that essentially outlines a Just Deserts Theory of morality. Under this conception there is nothing wrong with people getting fabulously wealthy, its only bad when people cheat their way to the top. Greg also brings up an argument that I used to be attached to, that charity is a public good – no one wants to see poor people but we would all prefer that someone else do something about it – and as a public good is rightfully financed by government spending.
I've moved away from this view. Greg is right that it reflects common intuition. The problem is that this intuition does not survive introspection. It works so long as you don't think too much about it. As you think more and more you are forced either into something like a consequentialist camp, that is to say that it matters who ends up with what. Or, you are forced into miniarchist camp. That is, that there should be almost no government at all. It's hard to keep the idea that there should be some public goods if you are not explicitly conditioning your idea of a good society on what society actually exists.
Imagine for example the case of wounded vets. Almost all of us would feel bad if there was wasn't descent medical care for wounded veterans. We feel a duty towards them. Not everyone does, however. Some people don't care at all. How then can we justify forcing those people, via their tax money, to pay to support our value – helping wounded vets.
We lean, as Greg does it parts of his essay, on the notion that without public support there wouldn't be enough private charity. Of the majority of us who do care about wounded vets, most of us might give. Yet, still other people – people who like us care about wounded vets – would not give because they hoped that someone else would give in their place. People would free ride on helping vets.
Wounded veterans suffering because of free riders seems horrible. However, this is only a moral problem if we are concerned about the actual amount of care that vets end up with. That is, in order to justify publically funding wounded veterans, we must care about the consequences of our public policy choices, not just about fairness of the process.
Once you opened the door to caring about the consequences of public policy choices that door is hard to shut. For a while I argued that this "slippery slope" meant that we had to embrace some from of anarcho-capitalism. Opening the door to any evaluation of consequences meant that we were in a full-blown consequentialist paradigm. That I thought was clearly bad.
Yet, over time that bullet proved too hard to bite. consequences did matter. Once I accepted that, the question then switched to "how do we evaluate when consequences are good or bad"
This leads me into something that is more or less Rawlsian. That is, that society should function so as to help out the least advantaged. That's a hard switch, I admit, but the middle ground is not stable. The middle ground only works we you don't spend too much time thinking about what you are endorsing.
I have some technical issues with Rawls. I don't think maximizing the welfare of the least well off is appropriate even under the scenario that Rawls sets out. However, its hard to argue that concern for the least well off is not an important part of evaluating whether we are living in the society we want.
This leads me to a social view similar to Krugman where he states
The point is that you don't, in fact, have to be that radical once you drop the rigidity of the conservative position. If you admit that life is unfair, and that there's only so much you can do about that at the starting line, then you can try to ameliorate the consequences of that unfairness.
Importantly this unfairness need not, and in general is not, man-made. One of the problems I have with the approach taken by some on the left is the assumption that life is unfair because of racism, oppression, kleptocracy, etc. These things clearly exist but are not the primary source of unfairness. The primary source of unfairness is the fact that nature simply has no inherent justice. Contrary to common human intuition there is no cosmic balance or karma. Bad things happen to good people all the time and there is no point at which any natural force will rectify this.
In extreme cases, children are born with horrible genetic diseases. This is certainly not a punishment for offenses in a previous life. However, it's not a lesson or a test from which better things will come either. They are just screwed. Life is just unfair.. Unless other human beings take action no entity is coming to help and things will not get better. Indeed, as I have said before the one thing that you can count in almost any situation is that ultimately things are bound to get much worse. This is no one's fault and it's not something we deserve. It's just that we were born into the world and the world is thus.
The question before us, is that given that we were all born into this world – which is neither friendly nor hospitable nor ultimately even survivable – what can we do about it? What we can do is build a society that alleviates as much pain as we can and provides some people with the opportunity for genuine happiness. To do this its helpful to redistribute some wealth. We can't make everything better through redistribution and too much redistribution will actually make things worse. However, we can make things a little less painful, we can provide a bit more joy and that's a good thing. That's a slightly better world, which is what we should be aiming for.
Importantly, we don't redistribute because the people who have wealth have done anything wrong. Indeed, they have done good. We are glad to have them. We can, do and should honor them. However, we also note that taking a portion of what they have can ease the suffering of others and that's also a good thing. Ultimately, it's a balancing act. We can and should debate where the correct balance is.
What we should not do is pretend that there is some inherent justice in the market system. The market, when it is working well, reflects the actual costs and benefits of action in the real world, but the real world is deeply, deeply unjust.
A few people asked me a while back how we would know that Quantitative Easing was working. I said inflation expectations will rise. Most were unsatisfied with that and I think wanted a clearer positive mechanism – small business credit might ease, mortgage rates fall, etc. The problem with those measures, however, is that they are confounded. In particular think about mortgage rates. In the process of spuring economic growth the Fed tries to drive down interest rates. However, if people believe that it will be successful then expectations of inflation will rise which will tend to drive up interest rates. So you can't just look at interest rates to tell if its working.
Inflation expectations, however, are fairly decent gage of whether we are achieving what we hope to be achieving. Raising the rate of inflation is important is because there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and growth. Indeed, we can see that as inflation expectations have risen, initial claims for unemployment insurance have fallen
Here is the are the initial claims for unemployment graphed against the Cleveland Fed's estimate of one-year inflation expectations (inverted)
Initial claims shot upwards as inflation expectations collapsed in late 2008. There is a little rise (showing as a dip because the axis is inverted) when investors wrongly thought that we were out of the woods. It quickly reversed itself, however. One might be tempted to say that what this really shows is that inflation expectations are driven by the state of the economy. When the economy is doing well people expect businesses to try to raise prices. When the economy is doing poorly people expect business to lower prices. That's fine as a shortcut way of thinking but as long as you believe that ultimately inflation is controlled by the Fed, then you must believe that proximately the Fed controls the state of business. That is, if inflation is driven by the Fed, but inflation expectations are controlled by the state of business, then people must be expecting that the Fed is controls the state of business.
Also as a side note, it seems that the professional forecasting community is using the Tax Cut deal as an excuse to upgrade its forecasts. Which is to say that they didn't have the faith in theory to upgrade on QEII itself. I thought the deal was good. I was especially for the payroll tax cut but still the driver here is QEII. Cutting taxes just serves as a way to smooth out the diffusion mechanism. Rather than waiting for financial prices to work their way through the economy you just cut checks.
Lastly, we need not stop here. Faster growth is good but even faster growth would be better. This is especially true because as the recession drags on long-term unemployment will turn into structural unemployment. Again we don't really know why. I know its tempting to say its because people loose skills etc. Maybe that's true. Its sounds plausible to me. However, we don't know its true. All we know is that the data suggests that hysteresis is real and the longer we wait the worse it gets.
From Tyler Cowen comes a tale of how the end of U.S. horse slaughterhouses has made things worse for horses, as owners ship old horses to Mexico for slaughter because euthanizing them is expensive. Tyler asks the following questions:
What does ethics look like when there are many more beings than can be supported alive by available resources? How much of the animal kingdom falls under this designation? How much of human history? Or does this question not apply to humans?
If I am not mistaken (and it's been some time since I've seen it, so I may be) this was one of the ethical quandaries posed by the film Soylent Green. Dead people are a valuable commodity, and so people can sell their corpses in exchange for a (more) peaceful death. U.S. slaughterhouses are just Soylent Green for horses. We agree that horses can be made better off through others profiting from their corpses, but what about people?
With all the preparing, burying, and storing, our society spends an awful lot of resources on our corpses, and furthermore we outlaw the profitable exchange of them. Would you like to buy my corpse from me in advance by paying me in advance of my death? Well you can't.
The dying are arguably society's worst off, and by preventing the sale of their bodies we are taking something from them. Or are we very worried about unnecessarily incentivizing murder by allowing people to profit from death? Considering the numerous existing industries which profit from death (e.g., funeral homes), this doesn't seem very compelling, however the existence of ghost bride murders in China suggests it is possible. Or, as in the ban on assisted suicide, are we trying to protect the dying from attempting to act overly-altruistic and dying early to save costs? Or do we just find it too repugnant?
Perhaps if Malthusians are correct in any sense about our future we will reconsider how we deal with death and corpses.
Robin Hanson asks
The second point seems easier to settle, as it is just an application of standard econ theory. Any other economists care to weigh in?
referring to this point
I say prices usually fall when a very elastic supply curve rapidly gets cheaper. Russ would probably agree for something like computer memory, but is reluctant to agree for wages – he doesn't think cheap plentiful immigrants lower wages. I say that if trillions of immigrants willing to work for a dollar an hour were waiting just offshore, letting in as many as wanted in would lower wages to that level. So I say cheap [human intelligent] robots getting cheaper fast should rapidly lower wages for tasks they do. Russ objects "You can't just say your wage will be driven down, because if there are complementary types of labor they'll increase the wage rate of some people. … There's all these complicated secondary effects." I say all things considered, the likely effect is falling wages.
There are a few of ways of looking at this. Robin uses supply and demand. Another way to looking at it is noting that immigration doesn't change the total number of people in the world, it just changes the distribution.
In a world were all institutional systems were equally productive immigrants moving to America would simply mean that new factories are built in America instead of factories being built overseas. Unless their are strong market constraints then either the job will move to the immigrant or the immigrant will move to the job but ultimately the same capital will be combined with the same labor.
Because some institutional systems are more productive, total world productivity can go up by moving both the immigrants and the capital to the better institutional environment. That's the essence of why the world gets richer when people move to America.
However, in principle the same level of growth could result by porting the institutions to other countries. This is more or less the story of China and India.
When Russ notes that immigration makes everybody wealthier he implicitly noting the effect of improving the average institutional arrangement under which people live. Without that difference, immigration wouldn't matter at all.
The second way to look at it is to note that in general equilibrium all profits accrue to the irreproducible factors of production. If human intelligent robots mean that labor is reproducible then natural resources become the only irreproducible factor.
Without government intervention, the real price of land in the robot future will skyrocket as the earth becomes populated by trillions upon trillions of human intelligent robot workers and the return to labor will fall to the marginal cost of producing a new robot.
Robin suggests that the real return on capital would skyrocket. I am not sure this is the case. The reason is that the robots support savings in the same way that humans do. So the demand for capital is racing outward as labor expands but so is the supply.
What is clear is that the real price of natural resources will skyrocket. In theory this could happen because prices of most goods are falling at a tremendous rate while the price of land and materials holds. I don't think this could happen for monetary reasons. Piecing together optimal monetary policy in the singularity is a side project of mine and though it sounds silly possibly very important. [1]
So your house, for example, might still be worth 250K dollars but within a few years the cost of deconstructing your existing house and building a new house from the parts might be 500 dollars and could be done by several thousand robots in an afternoon. As you can see in a world of such cheap service the actual cost of materials becomes a huge consideration. Building an entirely new house and on new land is radically different proposition than reconstructing an existing house.
This is why everyone who owns something besides their own labor power would likely become very rich, very fast in the robot future.
To see how capital responds note that the total market cap of the US stock exchange would be exploding but this could occur as new companies are IPOed every few seconds. Thus the return to owning any particular company wouldn't rise very fast even as the total capitalization of the economy was growing enormously fast.
One thing that is fascinating is that in some ways the robot future would seem more natural. It is a constant source of confusion to people that human time is vastly more valuable than natural resources.
People resist vehemently the fact that it is wasteful to build a careful quality-constructed thing once rather than to pop out thousands of cheap copies and then throw them away once they break. Our intuition places a really high value of materials and a comparably low value on human time. This is why recycling seems obviously efficient to most people but is profitable for no one but the homeless and then only after government subsidies.
The robot future would bring the world more into line with intuition. The price of human time would fall, the real price of materials would skyrocket and recycling in one form or another would be hugely profitable and indeed probably the basis for much if not most of the economy.
I imagine the robot economy as full of retoolers. Robots that are expert at finding new ways to use old stuff.
1: Whether the singularity is a time of skyrocketing nominal interest rates, rapidly falling prices, a decline or rise in nominal wages, etc will be vastly important in how it plays out for most people. If it happens as a relatively sudden collapse in nominal wages that could be disastrous for the social and political order as people see robots coming to replace them.
If on the other hand it happens as a time of rising nominal wages but ever accelerating real asset prices then it will look and feel to most people like a promised land where investing in certain things will lead to permanently increasing wealth.
At an NC Chamber yesterday morning I heard a common refrain: that unemployment was likely to remain high for years to come because to grow our way out of it in the next few years would require double digit growth rates.
Paul Krugman even said
Roughly, it takes two point-years of extra growth to reduce the unemployment rate by one point.
So, suppose that US growth is accelerating. Even so, it will take years of high growth to get us back to anything resembling full employment. Put it this way: suppose that from here on out we average 4.5 percent growth, which is way above any forecast I've seen. Even at that rate, unemployment would be close to 8 percent at the end of 2012, and wouldn't get below 6 percent until midway through Sarah Palin's first term.
Now I think that unemployment is likely to remain high for years to come but the growth line of reasoning is not an illuminating way to think about this. Paul reference forecasts but most people implicitly lean on certain intuitions about growth. 10% annualized growth seems crazy high for the United States and so it seems unlikely that we will get the growth we need.
However, 10% growth is crazy high for the United States because we usually don't have a massive reservoir of untapped labor which could be easily mobilized.
10% growth is not crazy high for the Chinese economy because effectively they do have a massive untapped reservoir of labor. Workers migrating from extremely unproductive rural farm work to highly productive industrialized work along the coast is the source of China's growth.
However, unlike normal circumstances the US does have a reservoir now. The massive unemployment we have is the potential feedstock for super-normal growth. In a basic sense economic growth either comes from more workers or higher worker productivity. Usually increasing worker productivity is hard and so the quick way to growth is to flood the industrialized areas of the economy with new workers.
A story in the Times today covers the ongoing attempts by politicians to decrease the pay and power of unions:
State officials from both parties are wrestling with ways to curb the salaries and pensions of government employees, which typically make up a significant percentage of state budgets….
But in some cases — mostly in states with Republican governors and Republican statehouse majorities — officials are seeking more far-reaching, structural changes that would weaken the bargaining power and political influence of unions, including private sector ones.
And yesterday, at the Economix blog, Times reporter Michael Powell had some more comments on a previous article he'd written about public sector pay, where he made this claim:
A raft of recent studies found that public salaries, even with benefits included, are equivalent to or lag slightly behind those of private sector workers.
An important note about these public sector studies is that I don't believe that any of their authors are claiming that there is no public sector union wage premium. Just like in the private sector, being in a union raises your wages by over 10%.
Of course some of these studies explicitly control for union membership, which then tells you that public sector workers aren't overpaid once you take their union premium into account. Not all studies control for unionization, which is an attempt to provide a measure of the overall wage premium for public sector workers, but I doubt that those authors would deny that there is still a public sector union wage premium.
So are public sector workers overpaid? It's a tough question to answer because there are many perks for occupations, and also probably some selection bias. But I think we can say with a fair degree of certainty that , just like in the private sector, those in unions receive a substantial wage premium above market rates.
From a white paper from Gordon Hanson proposing a research agenda for economists studying immigration comes this important point:
While doubling the supply of illegal immigrants (currently 5% of US workers) in the US labor force would likely have at most second order effects on economic growth, doubling the supply of high skilled immigrants could have a first order effect.
Despite this, Hanson notes that the bulk of research -though of course not all of it- has focused on estimating the impact of low skilled immigration on the well-being of natives. Likewise, political discourse about immigration seems to exhibit a similar bias towards focusing on low-skilled and illegal immigration. Hanson argues that economists should change their focus, and I think this is probably true for pundits and journalists as well. This of course is not to say that low-skilled immigration isn't an important issue, especially for humanitarian reasons. But when the issue is self-interested immigration, we should understand that the impacts of low-skilled immigration are likely to be minimal compared to high-skilled immigration, and the discussion and policies should reflect that fact.
This paper is part of a series on "grand challenges" in the social and behavioral sciences that the National Science Foundation requested in order to help them "to frame innovative research for the year 2020 and beyond that enhances fundamental knowledge and benefits society in many ways". Other submissions from economists can be found here.


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Dog has always been mans best friend, and for centuries this has held strong grounds. As pet lovers or dog owners, we treat our pooches more than just pets or animals, they infact become family. Our pets, especially dogs bond and blend with our daily lifestyles, not asking for anything more than attention and love. Most counselors till today ask patients who suffer from various chronic health issues and mental health issues to adopt a "service dog", why? Because there are various benefits to having one around, relieving pressure and stress from the body and mind is one of them.
When you look into the deep dark eyes of a dog, you are encountered with the unconditional love he or she has for you. There is a certain feeling of warmth and love which every dog has in his or her eyes. They are loving, kind, obedient and very loyal and faithful. The master's word is what they depend on and sometimes would even lay down their lives to protect their masters and the families they live with.
Throughout history we have read and learnt why dogs have been around and domesticated for various needs over time. Today we would like to welcome you to our site, which is one of a kind. A site which helps you give back to your loving pets more love, more care and more of everything nice and positive, more than what they actually deserve. Come join us along on the journey of loving and giving, for that's what our lovely dogs have taught us all through life.
We talk about the Golden retriever and the Labrador retriever on our sites. Both the breeds are unique and individualistic, not to forget, they both are bundles of joy to have around. The dogs are friendly and known to be well behaved and sociable with one and all they meet and encounter everyday. Not only that, if you put them to test for devotion and obedience, you would be surprised, for they would exceed your expectations. They are very sporting and would love to run around all day, keeping you entertained and happy. The breeds we mentioned would tell you upfront when they are not happy through their behavior.
The Golden retriever and the Labrador retriever both need to be kept in good shape, which means they want you to take them out for their daily walks without fail. This is a good idea for you as well, especially if you have been thinking of losing all that holiday weight. When you train the Golden retriever and the Labrador retriever, you would see that they are quick learners and would exceed all your expectations as fast as possible. Remarkable as they are, most call the Golden retriever and the Labrador retrievers little angels from heaven. They enjoy playing games and love to play "Fetch and Carry".
Once again, we welcome you to our site which talks all about and everything you would like to know and read on the Golden retriever and the Labrador retriever. Do hop in and woof around with our little angels, for they sure are wagging their tails in happiness seeing you around!

subset: commoncrawl


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Home › Forums › Off Piste › Photography › Here we go:1st micro four thirds DSLR
Sep 11, 2008 at 11:31 pm #1231135
First off the block
Panasonic G1
Not much smaller than the Olympus E410 ; the new 100% coverage High Res EVF could be better …..
Stand by for the Olympus (and Leica) version to be announced.
Having just examined the Australian Press release ( it's official even here now !) it starts to look a bit better than it did a few days ago.
First the sensor (live MOS) is the same size as the standard 4/3 , a bit smaller than the APS-C sized version used by most others but about the same size as the one inside the Sigma DP1.
Next, the EVF (Electronic View Finder) is rated at 1,440M dots , that is 6 ( Fuji S8000) to 12 x (Canon S5IS) more pixels than inside the typical superzoom compact.
The 3" swivel LCD is also high res at 460k compared to the 230k used in the Nikon D40x/D60 and the Canon 450D/1000D.
The best part of the High Res EVF it is its 100% coverage , achieved only by the top of the range Canikon and Sony DSLRs. At DPReview the image seen through it is described as looking 50% bigger than the ( admittedly rather small) Olympus E420.
Another nice feature is the 16:9 still capture (regrettably there is no movie mode) that can be displayed on your HD panel via the optional HDMI cable . Having seen stills from some Pana compacts on a full HD 50" Pana panel, this feature will allow the re-birth of the "slide show"
One lens that I am looking forward to is the 7-14mm F4 (14-28mm in 35 lingo) due out in 2009 ( I guess a PMA release, early spring)Sep 17, 2008 at 6:09 am #1451377
Donna CBPL Member
@leadfootLocale: Middle Virginia
Franco, I don't see where it offers that dust removal ability like the Olympus. It has everything else, why not this? Or did I miss that in the description?Sep 17, 2008 at 7:09 am #1451381
Ashley BrownMember
Franco, Panasonic has said it's planning to release newer versions with movie mode in 2009. It's somewhat surprising that they haven't managed it with this first version, and I suspect a lot of potential buyers will hold off until movie mode appears (I know I will). If they are offering full-time live view at good resolution (460k) then movie mode is pretty much just a matter of recording the information being sent to the LCD. Not a big technical challenge anyway. I suspect they just needed to get their new camera out in time for Photokina and movie mode didn't make it in time. There will be micro 4/3 with movie mode at PMA for sure… perhaps the Oly version will already have it at Photokina.
I'm interested in these new cameras because I'm not really ever happy with the quality of the images produced by the tiny sensor compacts, but I also really like having a movie mode. The result is that I often lug a dSLR and a small compact along (the compact for the movie mode).
Of course, the new nikon d90 gives you the choice of getting your movies through a true dSLR. Lots of good choices in the next couple of years anyway…!Sep 17, 2008 at 9:18 am #1451393
Rick DreherBPL Member
@halfturboLocale: Northernish California
Hi Donna,
Yes, the Panny definitely includes Oly's "Supersonic Wave" dust reduction system, a system I can attest works very well indeed in the Oly E-cameras.
The 12 MP sensor is new, and I suspect will be rolled out into the next generation 4/3 dslr bodies, which are currently 10 MP.
I don't think Panasonic are capitalizing on the µ4/3 small size potential at all with this effort–either in the body or the lenses. I await Oly's first stab with much anticipation, hoping they keep the body small and by incorporating in-body IS (which they surely will), keeping the lenses small as well.
I sometimes shoot with an EVF camera w/0.5 meg resolution, and it's not bad considering how much lighter and smaller it makes the camera compared to an slr. 1.5 megs, especially if it's also bright and contrasty, might just be a breakthrough for the technology (although I suspect OLED will dominate displays eventually).
Panny's target market for the G1 sure ain't woodsy outdoor types, based on their own Web page.Sep 17, 2008 at 10:19 am #1451403
Donna CBPL Member
@leadfootLocale: Middle Virginia
Looks like mucho Yen-oSep 17, 2008 at 5:02 pm #1451449
Sometime we forget that there is a considerable lead time before a product like this hits the market. The other day I had a play with the Sony A900 , I knew of this FF (Full Frame) product development about 2 years ago (BTW a good clue at the time was that most of the new lenses were for FF) …
Panasonic and Olympus learned with the L1/E330 not to mess with the perceived appropriate "look" of a digital SLR, note the fake viewfinder bump on the G1.
Now that both Nikon (D90) and Canon ( 5DMarkII) have a movie mode inside a serious DSLR body, Pana/Olympus can easily do that to without risking the "it's a toy feature" criticism from the Canikon fan club.
I am confident that we will see a "backpaker" friendly version in the very near future. By that I mean less emphasis in trying to look like an SLR and more on size,weight and dust/moisture resistance. Some have criticised the 5 min limit on the Nikon D90 movie mode, in reality I cannot think of many situations outdoor when I would wont such a long sequence. On the positive side, the much larger sensor affords some interesting effects (perspective and shallower deph of field) not available on domestic video cameras.
FrancoSep 22, 2008 at 5:38 am #1451844
Ashley BrownMember
The Oly micro-4/3rds offering has been released as a prototype…. and hooray it looks like they have really gone for small and light. No specs to hand at the moment, but the body looks very much like a chunky point-n-shoot. Except it has a 4/3rds sensor and interchangeable lenses. Check out the story at story at dpreview. No doubt more details to come, but at the moment it seems it is still in the prototype stage.Sep 22, 2008 at 8:02 am #1451853
Dondo .BPL Member
@dondoLocale: Colorado Rockies
Nice! This could be the camera I've been waiting for.Sep 22, 2008 at 9:30 am #1451869
Rick DreherBPL Member
@halfturboLocale: Northernish California
Right! Much more along the lines of a DP1 with interchangeable lens. We'll see what else Oly has to say during Photokina, but I'd not expect any product before mid-'09 at the earliest, based on Oly's track record following non-working prototypes.Sep 22, 2008 at 4:03 pm #1451907
From the Aussie press release :
22 September 2008: Olympus Imaging Corporation (President: Masaharu Okubo) has today announced the development of an interchangeable-lens type digital camera based on the Micro Four Thirds standard. Designed to bring dramatic reductions in size and weight to the Olympus E-System, a concept mock-up of the new camera will be exhibited at Photokina 2008 – the world's biggest trade fair for the photographic and imaging industries at Köln Messe, Cologne, Germany.
(we did not get any pictures with that)
Yes looking at the DPReview "mock-up" the Sigma is the intended target.
There was no expected release date, a second E Mail announcing their "prosumer" DSLR (between the E520 and the E3 feature wise) stated spring 09 for that, so I would expect the Olympus launch for the micro version also to be ready for PMA .
BTW, the video version of the G1 sounds very interesting
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Notice: On March 31, it was announced that Statalist is moving from an email list to a forum. The old list will shut down on April 23, and its replacement, statalist.org is already up and running.
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Re: st: Interaction terms interpretation when one variable is omitted
David Hoaglin <firstname.lastname@example.com>
Re: st: Interaction terms interpretation when one variable is omitted
Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:46:33 -0400
Hi, Oliver.
If the rest of your data behave in the same way as the data for id 001
that you listed, then
_const - Employed - Treatment + (interaction term) = 0 (exactly).
That is the collinearity that caused Stata to omit the interaction term.
I suspect that I do not know enough about the detailed structure of
your data and your models, but it appears that the alternative
approach is not satisfactory. The definition of each regression
coefficient includes the list of other predictors in the model. When
you use the separate models, you need to understand what happens to
the constant term. For example, when the model includes treat_emp,
but not treat_unemp or treat_ret, the individuals whose values on
treat_unemp or treat_ret are accounted for by the constant term, and
the coefficient of treat_emp would be interpreted as a comparison
between the individuals for whom treat_emp = 1 and the aggregate of
all other individuals. It appears that treat_emp, treat_unemp, and
treat_ret are indicators for separate categories of a categorical
variable. In such situations, all the categories except one should be
included in the model together. (Omitting one category avoids a
collinearity.) You may need to re-examine the definitions of your
predictor variables and make sure that they capture the intended
David Hoaglin
On Thu, Apr 11, 2013 at 7:14 AM, Mirnezami, Oliver
<email@example.com> wrote:
> Hello
> I have a query regarding the interpretation of an interaction term when Stata automatically omits a variable from the regression due to collinearity.
> I am looking at how job loss affects health and wish to extend my model to see when an individual loses their job, does re-employment moderate the negative effect on their health.
> To do this, I have interacted my treatment variable (1 for individuals that have reported job loss in current wave, 0 for individuals employed in current wave) with an individual's labour force status.
> For example:
> gen treat_employed = treat * employed
> gen treat_unemployed = treat * unemployed
> gen treat_retired = treat * retired
> In the first case, my regression is then (n.b. other controls are left out here for simplicity):
> xtreg health treat employed treat_employed, fe
> However, the interaction term treat_employed gets omitted. I then tried running the following regressions separately (with just 2 of 3 variables) and found that the coefficient and standard error on employed is the same as those of treat_employed (the interaction term):
> | Robust
> health | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
> --------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
> treat | -.0353416 .0370996 -0.95 0.341 -.1080636 .0373803
> employed | .1540951 .0679695 2.27 0.023 .0208624 .2873278
> _cons | 3.4245 .0677945 50.51 0.000 3.291611 3.55739
> | Robust
> sr_health1 | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
> --------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
> treat | -.1894367 .0585036 -3.24 0.001 -.3041146 -.0747589
> treat_employed | .1540951 .0679695 2.27 0.023 .0208624 .2873278
> _cons | 3.578596 .0007682 4658.40 0.000 3.57709 3.580101
> An example of my data is as follows:
> Id Year Employed Treatment Interaction term (employed * treatment)
> 001 1996 1 0 0
> 001 1998 1 0 0
> 001 2000 1 0 0
> 001 2002 0 1 0
> 001 2004 1 0 0
> 001 2006 1 0 0
> 001 2008 1 1 1
> 001 2010 1 0 0
> I think the problem is arising because employment and treatment are not independent of each other in the sense that treatment always equals 0 when employed equals 1 by construction (as my control group is people with a job) although when treatment equals 1 (i.e. an individual reports job loss in this wave), the individual can be employed or unemployed (or in fact any labour force status) because the job loss would have occurred at some point between this wave and the previous interview wave and so they have already found a new job. I wish to see if health is impacted depending on which labour force status an individual has following job loss.
> I thought of an alternate approach to the problem and would be grateful for your feedback. Originally, my treatment variable could equal 1 for any labour force status of the individual. My new method involves making separate treatment variables where the control groups are always the same but I have treat_emp which only equals 1 when the individual happens to be employed in the period in which job loss is reported and then treat_unemp or treat_ret if the individual happens to be unemployed or retired in the interview in which they report they have experienced job loss whereas originally it would equal 1 for all of these labour force statuses. My new method:
> local stubs "emp unemp ret"
> foreach stub of local stubs {
> gen treat_`stub' = .
> by id: replace treat_`stub' = 0 if (treat ==0)
> by id: replace treat_`stub' = 1 if (treat ==1 & `stub' ==1)
> }
> I then run a series of separate regressions and analyse the coefficient of the treatment variables separately. I found for example that the coefficient on treat_unemp is twice as large as treat_emp which makes intuitive sense to me - can I make these comparisons across regressions in this way when the regressions are exactly the same with just a different treatment variable included in each? My thought process is that in a sense, the original treatment variable is some kind of the average of the separate treatment variables whereas now I am examining each case separately to see how they differ across separate regressions.
> xtreg health treat_emp, fe
> xtreg health treat_unemp, fe
> xtreg health treat_ret, fe
> Is this alternate method acceptable to use? I'm just concerned because previously I have always been taught to use interaction terms.
> Incidentally, I found a query on interaction terms raised a few days ago by Nahla Betelmal very helpful as a starting point. David Hoaglin and Richard Williams generated a lot of discussion which was interesting to read although my query is specifically regarding when one of the variables is omitted which I don't think was covered specifically and whether my alternate approach is acceptable or should be disregarded?
> I would really appreciate any advice that you can offer. Apologies for the longwinded explanation.
> Kind regards
> Oliver
* For searches and help try:
* http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search
* http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/resources/statalist-faq/
* http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/


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Celebrate National Arts and Humanities Month
National Arts and Humanities Month (NAHM) is a coast-to-coast collective celebration of culture in America. Each year since 1993, NAHM has helped give millions of Americans the opportunity to explore new facets of the arts and humanities in their lives and has encouraged them to begin a lifelong habit of active participation.
National Arts and Humanities Month's four primary goals are to:
- create a national, state and local focus on the arts and humanities through the media;
- encourage the active participation of individuals, as well as arts, humanities and other interested organizations nationwide;
- provide an opportunity for federal, state and local business, government and civic leaders to declare their support for the arts and humanities; and
- establish a highly visible vehicle for raising public awareness about the arts and humanities.
What You Can Do
In towns and communities across America, arts organizations are planning and developing events, celebrations and innovative programming to highlight National Arts and Humanities Month. Throughout the month of October, special events will capture the spirit that the arts and humanities bring to everyday life. In particular, cultural organizations are being asked to do the following:
- Participate in the month-long celebration with an already-scheduled activity or a new event, large or small, that will be free and open to the public. Events could include a free performance, lecture or reading; a behind-the-scenes tour, a workshop, a concert or a festival. An open house is a great way to invite the community to join with your organization in celebrating the month.
- Obtain a proclamation from your elected officials. Use the Atlanta Arts Accords as a template for getting your elected leaders to declare their support and appreciation for the arts and humanities. The Atlanta Arts Accords were signed by representatives of the National Governors Association, the National Conference of State Legislatures, the National Association of Counties, the National League of Cities, the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Congressional Arts Caucus. Invite representatives from each of these groups and other civic leaders to sign a similar set of accords or issue a proclamation. See a Sample Proclamation. The Pittsburgh Arts Accords, a similar document signed by business and foundation executives, can be used to encourage the support of your state's private sector representatives.
- Submit articles and opinion editorials to newspapers and magazines about the value of the arts and humanities.
Five More Ways to Participate
- Launch a mentor program. Identify businesses to sponsor arts and cultural organizations for membership in local convention and visitors bureaus (CVBs).
- Create NAHM giveaways and information. Produce materials (cultural calendars, brochures, buttons, etc.) in partnership with businesses and place them in visitor centers, CVBs, hotels, airports, restaurants and convention centers during the month.
- Dedicate cultural events for NAHM. Identify or include already-scheduled events for October as part of your celebration of the month.
- Create an arts and humanities month banner for your website and ask others to include it on their sites.
- Reach out to the media. Conduct editorial board meetings, write op-eds, and involve media representatives in symposia or events during the month.


text:
The final 2016 AutoTracker numbers have been posted...
And the top 10 "Full Year*" Annual Returns Contest winners are:
(* only accounts that were active the entire year qualified - Several users had big years but missed some of the early 2016 losses)
Congratulations on a great year!
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* Choice of any two items on the prize page.
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4th thru 10th places) Please select any 1 available (non-1st place) item from the prize page.
I sent each of you a Private Message. Let me know the prize(s) you choose, your shipping information and..
... If you are taking any shirts, I will need your size.
... If you choose an Amazon Gift Card, it can be physically mailed or sent electronically to your email account. Let me know.
Great job everyone!
It was another great year. Thanks for participating! Happy New Year and good luck in 2017!!
For the full list of standings, please go to: TSP Talk AutoTracker
See full and partial year standings on this spreadsheet... www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tally/Final_tally_2016.xlsx


text:
FPCContentTypeSet Collection
The FPCContentTypeSet collection can hold a list of MIME content types and file name extensions for Web content. Multiple MIME content types can specified in a single element of this collection using an asterisk (*) as a wildcard character. For example, application/* includes all application types.
The following predefined content type sets are supplied with ISA Server:
- Application
- Application Data Files
- Audio
- Compressed Files
- Documents
- HTML Documents
- Images
- Macro Documents
- Text
- Video
A content type set can include file name extensions. For example, the default Audio content type set includes the file name extensions .aif, .aifc, .au, .m3u, .mid, .mp3, .ra, .ram, .rmi, .snd, and .wav. The file name extensions that are included in a content type set can be changed by calling the Add and Remove methods of the FPCContentTypeSet collection.
To configure granular security policies, access rules can be limited to specific MIME content types or file name extensions by setting their AppliesToContent Method property to fpcAppliesToSpecifiedContent and including references to the applicable content type sets in the FPCRefs collection held in their ContentTypeSetsUsed property. Content type sets can be referenced only in access rules that apply to HTTP and tunneled FTP traffic and are not applicable to any other protocols (for example, HTTPS).
When a Web proxy client specifies the HTTP or FTP protocol in a URL request and an access rule allows access to the destination, the ISA Server Web proxy forwards the request to the Web server. When a response is provided by the Web server, the Web proxy re-examines the access rules to determine whether there is an access rule that references a content type set containing the MIME content type specified in a Content-Type header in the response or its file name extension. If such a rule is found, the Web proxy performs its action. For requests that specify the HTTP protocol, only the responses can contain Content-Type headers. Responses to requests that specify the FTP protocol do not contain Content-Type headers, but the MIME content type of a response containing a folder listing is defined as text/html. For both protocols, the file name extension is checked only for responses that do not have a defined MIME content type.
The names of content type sets are also specified as the names of parameters in a specific FPCVendorParametersSet object associated with the Link Translation Filter add-in to indicate the Content-Type headers for which link translation should be applied to the message body when link translation is enabled.
The content type sets for which HTTP compression is enabled or disabled are specified by including references to the applicable FPCContentTypeSet collections in the FPCRefs collection held in the CompressibleContentTypeSets property of the FPCHTTPCompressionConfiguration object (introduced in ISA Server 2006).
In ISA Server Enterprise Edition, the preconfigured content type sets are defined on the enterprise level, and enterprise administrators can create additional enterprise-level content type sets. Enterprise-level content type sets can be used in array-level access rules and in enterprise-level access rules. Array-level content types can be used only in access rules for the array in which they are defined.
The FPCContentTypeSet collection is an element of an FPCContentTypeSets collection, and a new object representing an additional content type set can be created using the Add method of the FPCContentTypeSets collection.
Click here to see the ISA Server object hierarchy.
InheritanceThis collection inherits from the FPCPersist object, which contains methods and properties related to the persistent storage of an object's data. They include methods for exporting an object's data to and importing it from an XML document.
The FPCContentTypeSet collection defines the following methods.
|Adds a new MIME content type or file name extension to the content type set.
|Retrieves the requested MIME content type or file name extension from the content type set.
|Removes the specified MIME content type or file name extension from the content type set.
|Removes all of the MIME content types and file name extensions from the content type set.
The FPCContentTypeSet collection has the following properties.
|Gets an enumerator object for the collection.
|Gets the total number of MIME content types and file name extensions in the content type set.
|Gets or sets the description of the content type set.
|Gets or sets the name of the content type set.
|Gets a Boolean value that indicates whether the content type set is a predefined content type set that was created during the installation of ISA Server and cannot be deleted. (This property is introduced in ISA Server 2006.)
Methods Inherited from FPCPersist
|Cancels the registration established by the WaitForChanges method (for use in C and C++ programming only).
|Returns a Boolean value that indicates whether the collection's properties and elements can be imported from the specified XML document.
|Writes the stored values of the collection's properties and elements to the specified XML document.
|Writes the stored values of the collection's properties and elements to the specified XML file.
|Retrieves a 32-bit bitmask of the FpcServices enumerated type that specifies which services need to be restarted for currently unsaved changes to take effect.
|Copies the values of the collection's properties and elements from the specified XML document to persistent storage.
|Copies the values of the collection's properties and elements from the specified XML file to persistent storage.
|Provides the XML document's properties so that you can know what information can be imported from the document.
|Reads the values of the collection's properties and elements from persistent storage, overwriting any changes that have not been saved.
|Writes the current values of the collection's properties and elements to persistent storage.
|Registers to wait for an event indicating that the contents of the object have changed (for use in C and C++ programming only).
Properties Inherited from FPCPersist
|Gets the persistent name of the collection. The persistent name of an object is a name that is unique for the object at the respective level of the COM object hierarchy.
|Gets an FPCVendorParametersSets collection that can hold sets of custom data for extending the collection.
Interfaces for C++ Programming
This collection implements the IFPCContentTypeSet and IFPCContentTypeSet2 interfaces.
|Requires Windows XP.
|Requires Windows Server 2003. Requires Windows Server 2003 or Windows 2000 for ISA Server 2004 Standard Edition.
|Requires Internet Security and Acceleration (ISA) Server 2006 or ISA Server 2004.
Declared in Msfpccom.idl.


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Rated 5 out of 5 by BrownRabbit from Dawg when It's Flat & Nothing Biting Use This First I want to say Thank You Mike Iaconelli for the Super Lure & Idea of this Fish Catcher .. I been a Fan of fat Worms that have Lots of Salt In them & Slow Fall Rate . This Surpasses with More Action than any other Senkio type Lure .. It has that Leech Look to it In the water .. with a 2/0 Hook No weight action Like No other .. In the winter Try is On the Back of Lite Jig ( Better than Jig and Eel)
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Rated 5 out of 5 by Rickthequick from Awesom attraction !!! I tried few stuff at Lake Champlain with no results including live Canadian Crawlers. I switched to this Havoc Flat Dawg in pumpkin seed color and started getting action. I caught a couple of large mouth bass and a huge pike. Koodos to this lure.
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Rated 5 out of 5 by Bommer54 from Flat dawg is a great bait I have been fishing for berkley and pure fishing for about a year now. All of the products in the havoc line catch fish but this particular bait that I just got my hands on is a bass catching bait! This bait generates more strikes than other stick baits I have fished with. If you want to catch a ton of bass. Try fishing this new stick bait from havoc the flat dawg. You won't be disappointed.
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Date published: 2013-10-08
Rated 5 out of 5 by bugs from Awesome bait! Tried the Flat Dawg as an alternative to the Senkos the fish here see every day! Large mouth ate it like it was candy!! I'll be getting more soon!!
Date published: 2015-05-21
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Date published: 2016-09-23
Rated 4 out of 5 by Jerry56 from Seems to move in the water colum very good The baits were purchased for a tournament as a trail.
Date published: 2015-01-27
Rated 5 out of 5 by PaBassGuy13 from WOW! You MUST buy this bait! I have loved this bait since the moment it was released; but my biggest issue was the durability. These flat out catch bass (and a lot of them). I was never too worried though because for $2.99 for an 8 pack I knew I could always just order a ton more. These excel on a wacky rig but again; they were so easily torn off the hook. I finally gave in and bought a wacky o-ring tool just to give it a try. I was always a firm believer in inserting the hook perpendicular to the bait not parallel like you get with an o-ring. Regardless; this past weekend I went out armed with an o-ring rigged Flat Dawg and caught 22 Bass on one bait. I then had to rig up a new one (caught one more Bass and headed home). Problem solved! I went out the following day and had that 2nd worm on from the prior day and landed 11 more Bass. So two worms and a total of 34 Bass. That 2nd worm is still rigged up and ready for this coming weekend. So here's an already exceptional bait that proves itself each time out on the water and now I have cured the only issue I have ever had. So do yourself a huge favor and buy these baits and a few wacky hooks.....and.....do not forget the o-ring tool. Hookup percentage was at about 100% even with the hook running parallel in the bait (I was certainly surprised). The Havoc Flat Dawg rigged wacky style will be seeing a ton of time on the water this season! (If you guys decide to discontinue this Havoc Bait I need to know; I will buy every pack you have in stock)
Date published: 2017-05-01


text:
The Texans sent an emphatic message to the rest of the AFC, thoroughly dominating the Ravens in a 43-13 pasting and making it clear that the road to New Orleans is most likely to travel through Houston. The Colts surpassed their 2011 win total, using an unorthodox (by Colts terms), yet welcomed formula — run the ball and stop the run — in beating the Browns. The Titans strung consecutive wins together for the first time this season, edging the Bills late in a shootout. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's season of horrors continued, as its overtime loss to the Raiders was compounded by injuries to its two most important players.
What we learned: The Ravens, widely perceived to be the AFC's second-best team behind the Texans, didn't belong on the same field as Houston Sunday. The Texans' defense came out angry, on the heels of being embarrassed by the Packers on a national stage, and took out its frustration on Ravens QB Joe Flacco, sacking him four times and hitting him countless others. J.J. Watt continued his dominant play, while Connor Barwin (sack for safety, four QB hits, batted ball) and Johnathan Joseph (pick-six) shook off poor starts to the season with tone-setting plays defensively that put this win on ice before halftime.
What's in store next: The Texans head into the bye week with a great deal of confidence after a statement win. They can't let their guard down, however, as a home game with the Bills is followed by another prime-time game, this one on the road against the Bears. The Texans will enjoy the down time, knowing they passed their first significant test from an adversity standpoint with flying colors.
What the heck? The Texans' star power on "D" makes it easy to forget they added another very talented young player to the unit in the draft, first-round OLB Whitney Mercilus. Mercilus' play on the field Sunday, a breakout performance in his first significant opportunity, will ensure we don't forget about him again. Mercilus helped spearhead his team's defensive dominance Sunday, registering both his first career sack and forced fumble one play before Houston broke into the scoring column on a Connor Barwin safety. Mercilus, seeing some action in place of Brooks Reed, continued his energetic effort, nearly sacking Joe Flacco a second time on the ensuing defensive series and, late in the second quarter, tipping a Flacco pass that led to a Glover Quin interception.
What we learned: The Colts are learning how to help out their rookie quarterback. Indianapolis gained a season-high 148 rushing yards, with rookie Vick Ballard and second-year player Delone Carter both looking sharp and purposeful with the ball. That allowed Andrew Luck, who also showed off his legs with a pair of TD runs, to drop back to pass a season-low 32 times, putting less strain on his arm and the rest of the body from being subjected to far less of a beating. Defensively, the Colts showed a great deal of pride by quickly bouncing back from the porous run defense against the Jets to stonewall the Browns (55 yards on 17 rushes) for their best defensive showing of the season.
What's in store next: A trip to Nashville, where the Titans suddenly have built some momentum, following a 35-34 victory over the Bills, in which RB Chris Johnson had his best game of the season. The main focus for the Colts will be coming out with the same physicality on defense and not allowing Johnson a lot of yards after contact. The Colts are getting healthier — the return of ILB Pat Angerer was a great boon to the "D" — and potentially getting back NT Fili Moala, DLE Cory Redding and/or OLB Robert Mathis would only strengthen their ability to defend the run. The Colts should be able to move the ball on offense, and this will be an interesting test for the offensive line to protect Luck against a Titans defense that continues to provide very little in terms of a consistent pass rush.
What the heck? Interim head coach Bruce Arians got the win, making this discussion null and void, but he did use a questionable timeout with one second remaining before halftime and Cleveland facing 4th-and-4 at its own 44. Arians said after the game he wanted to force the Browns to punt to give his offense one more chance. Instead, even after the timeout, the Colts lined up with 12 men on the field on a Browns kneeldown play, giving the Browns a first down and a chance to attempt a Hail Mary pass that fell incomplete.
What we learned: The grass is most certainly not greener with backup Chad Henne leading the Jaguars. With QB Blaine Gabbert going down early with a left shoulder injury after a strong start, Henne was absolutely listless, mustering a ridiculous 54 total yards and two first downs in the final 30 minutes. In Henne's defense, the weapons around him continued to be inadequate, with WR Justin Blackmon nowhere to be found and Henne running for his life in the pocket more often than not. This was a really bad football team with Gabbert and RB Maurice Jones-Drew; without them — Jones-Drew left with a foot injury in the first quarter and spent the second half on crutches — it could be one of the worst offenses in the history of the league.
What's in store next: If squandering a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and losing their two most important players wasn't enough, the Jaguars now must go to Green Bay to battle a revitalized Packers offense. It is hard to envision a scenario where the Jags are able to match TDs with Aaron Rodgers and Co, thus this would seem to be a game in which Jacksonville's defense showing up will represent the Jaguars' only chance of breaking out of their three-game slide. To his credit, coordinator Mel Tucker called a much more aggressive game Sunday, netting the Jaguars their first game with more than one sack since Week One, but the Jaguars will have to be exponentially better against the Pack.
What the heck? With starting CB Rashean Mathis benched in the second half for ineffective play, the Jaguars gave sixth-round CB Mike Harris his first extended action — and it appears they might have found something in the confident, feisty corner. Harris played extremely well given the circumstances, particularly late in the fourth quarter, when he was responsible for breaking up two long passes downfield with the Raiders trying to drive the ball downfield in search of their first lead. Mathis, still not fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, has been inconsistent this season, and free-agent acquisition Aaron Ross has been disappointing. At 1-5, the Jaguars would be wise to continue finding ways to get Harris on the field.
What we learned: The Titans showed great resolve for a second consecutive week. Trailing by six points with 2:57 remaining, Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck engineered another game-winning drive, marching the Titans 52 yards on seven plays in just 1:54, capped by a Nate Washington TD on 4th-and-9. Like last week, Hasselbeck was shaky, throwing a would-be interception that bounced off Bills S George Wilson's chest, but he capitalized on Buffalo's squandered opportunity. Tennessee's defense didn't get many stops — it allowed 382 total yards and 22 first downs — but it came through at the end when it appeared Hasselbeck might have left too much time for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills. Instead, Fitzpatrick went three-and-out, and the Titans scratched and clawed their way to a third victory.
What's in store next: It hasn't always been pretty, but the Titans should have their sights set on extending their winning streak to three games when they host a Colts squad that defined winning ugly against a bad Browns team Sunday. Just a few weeks ago, this matchup had the makings of a real snoozer, yet, suddenly, in the wide-open AFC, it has significant ramifications between a pair of three-win clubs. The biggest question for the Titans will be deciding if QB Jake Locker is ready to return from the left shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the first quarter of Week Four – and if he gives them the best chance to win with Hasselbeck, despite not showing his best, getting this team on a roll.
What the heck? The Titans' offense showed a spark that has rarely been kindled thus far this season. Chris Johnson ran with much more authority, hitting holes faster on plays designed to get him north and south in a hurry; the offense opened the game in a sharp, no-huddle attack that caught Buffalo off guard; and the red-zone offense finally awoke after being in a season-long slumber. It was great to see so many adjustments from coordinator Chris Palmer, but it begs the question: What took until the last two weeks to put them into action?


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Church Messenger & Guest Pre-registration
You can pre-register your church messengers and guests online for the 2017 SBC Annual Meeting. It's easy and convenient. No more waiting in long lines and filling out cards manually.
- When you pre-register a church messenger online, each messenger gets a unique 8 digit "Registration code" printed on their messenger card.
- Print out the messenger card, and give it to your church messenger. A copy of the messenger card will also be emailed directly to the messenger's personal email address.
- The church messenger presents their messenger card to the registration desk at the 2017 SBC Annual Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.
Childcare, Children & Youth Registration
Southern Baptist Disaster Relief (SBDR) child care volunteers will care for preschoolers; while Giant Cow Children's Ministries will lead the 5- to 12-year-olds, and Woman's Missionary Union will guide the Youth on Mission curricula and activities.
All activities for children and youth will be housed at the Phoenix Convention Center, the annual meeting site. Youth who have completed grades 7-12 will begin their days at the convention center with worship before going into the community for hands-on mission projects.
Pre-registration is required, with a deadline of May 5 for most programs, or whenever the space limitation of 120 children is reached. Registration will not be taken on site.


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News By Tag
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Christmas Tree Hire - Hotels and Restaurants
Specialist delivery and installation service of display Christmas trees to City and Local Councils, bars, restaurants, shopping centers, hospitals and major public attractions throughout the Country.
How do these hotels and restaurants attract and retain this type of high spending party year on year? More importantly how can you attract them and get them to return the following year? An interesting piece of information in this survey revealed that the hotel, restaurant or bar that had carefully considered their Christmas décor were the most likely to attract and retain these parties – effectively they had created the ideal Christmas party ambience.
The Christmas Tree Company is the nation's largest supplier of Corporate Christmas trees and interior Christmas décor. Our products have helped numerous Hotels, restaurants and bars develop that special Christmas atmosphere. Our service provides your guests with a warm welcome and a long lasting impression of your premises that will have your guests not only returning the subsequent year, but throughout the course of the year.
We offer a specialist delivery and installation service of display Christmas trees and décor to City and Local Councils, hotels, restaurants, bars, shopping centres, hospitals and major public attractions throughout the Country. What distinguishes our service is that we allow you to hand pick your desired decoration, including a real or artificial Christmas tree up to 6 metres tall.
We provide all the matching table flora's and garlands with a range of complementary accessories for that finishing touch. We also provide luxury catering Christmas crackers that will make your guests evening end with a real bang. Furthermore, once the season has ended our team will collect on a specified date and uninstall your decorations and tree for you.
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Auto loan rates in Champaign, IL, and in cities across the country are at near record lows. The average 60-month auto loan rates are at 5.34 percent this week. If you're looking to finance, now might be an ideal time to be in the market.
It's crucial to shop around when looking for a loan to find the best deal. Make sure to check your local credit union, bank and online. Search for auto loan rates in Champaign, IL, or in your area of Illinois.
Auto loan rates in Champaign, Illinois
Here are the auto loan rates in Champaign, IL, as of 10:00 a.m. The 60-month new car loan rates vary from 2.49 percent to 3.59 percent.
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Use our auto loan calculator to check your monthly car payment.


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Anthony misses crown
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At Anthony Callea's old school in Werribee, friends and family react with disbelief to the verdict that denied the young singing teacher the Australian Idol title.
Photo: Wayne Taylor
He came, he saw, he sang. They watched, they squealed, and en masse they voted.
But not enough of them voted for 21-year-old Victorian Anthony Callea, who lost to 16-year-old Sydneysider Casey Donovan.
In Werribee adoring fans crammed the local cultural centre and Callea's former school to watch the show on the big screen.
More than a dozen security staff were on hand at MacKillop Catholic Regional College to stop gatecrashers, with the hysterical 1000-strong invited crowd raising the roof of the gymnasium an hour before the TV show began.
While most of Callea's immediate family were in Sydney, his uncle Domenic Callea said up to 170 members of the extended family - "even third and fourth cousins" - had congregated at the school.
"It's been Anthony fever for the last 12 weeks and it's grown and grown," he said.
About half the crowd wore T-shirts bearing their idol's face, while the rest held massive posters to wave during the live TV crosses to the school.
Scores of primary school-age children were allowed to stay past their usual bedtimes to cheer on "Werribee's own" Callea.
Weary six-year-old Alexander Fabretto was brought along by his mother Gabrielle, a friend of the Calleas.
He said he loved the singing, but after more than four hours his ears were "really sore".
Idol devotee Fiona Smith, from Sunbury, left home on Saturday evening with two friends and drove through the night to get to the sold-out concert in Sydney.
"They (Callea and Donovan) are inspirational. We came because we love the show and knew the atmosphere would be great," she said.
Early glimpses of eventual winner Donovan brought ferocious boos from the crowd, but this changed as the night went on, to
Mexican waves and the chant: "we love Anthony because he's a Victorian".
But the deafening screams turned to anxious whispers with all eyes fixed on the screen. And then the crowd gasped as one.
"Werribee's own" had been beaten.
The older members of the crowd stoically stood and clapped, but the shock was too much for the younger ones. Tears flowed from many.
While disappointed, Domenic Callea said he was still immensely proud of his nephew.
"You can't buy that kind of exposure," he said.
"While he's not the 'Australian Idol', from our point of view he's a winner anyway."
An after-party for friends and family at the cafe where he used to sing was expected to be a sombre affair.
While last year's 'Idol' winner Guy Sebastian has kicked on since the show, the success of runner-up Shannon Noll should give some consolation to Callea.


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WE HAVE MOVED TO OCEAN PARK! Our new address is 1629b 128 St, Surrey.
Welcome to our boutique where you will find gently used children's and maternity clothing as well as new items. Every day we process and hang high quality consigned clothing from top brands such as Tea, Quiksilver, Hurley, Deux par Deux, Peekaboo Beans, Janie & Jack, Pea in the Pod, Gap, and Gymboree. Our wide selection of new products include People Shoes, Minimocs, Saltwater Sandals, Native shoes, Kamik rainboots and snow boots, Toms, Undercover Mama tank tops, So Young lunch bags and back packs, Hershel lunch bags and back packs, and so much more.
We look forward to seeing you!
**ONLY current consignors may book online**
Please limit booking a consignment appointment to every second month
If you have never consigned with us and have maternity clothing, call 778.294.0401 to book your initial appointment
(there are a limited number of appointments available each month).
Please note that there is a wait list to begin consigning with us unless you have maternity clothing.


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In the final moments of Arizona's video introductions, a red neon sign at the McKale Center ticket office flashes SOLD OUT.
I don't know if they shot that footage in 1988 or 2005, but they couldn't have filmed it at any time this season because the old arena has been, shall we say, NOT SOLD OUT, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
But on Thursday night, just like old times, the Zona Zoo was full 45 minutes before tipoff. More than 14,500 fans squeezed into the place, and it felt like basketball the way we remember it - and the way Sean Miller has been told it would be.
"We had so much energy in the building, we were so excited to perform, it almost backfired on us early," Miller said. "We rushed some things, took some quick shots."
It wasn't an epic Arizona-Stanford game from the glory years because the Wildcats are still in the infancy of their reconstruction and because the Cardinal is one player shy of what is needed to help the league's best twosome, Landry Fields and Jeremy Green, contend for the NCAA tournament.
But in two intense hours at McKale, the old rivals played with such intensity it took you back to the Adam Keefe vs. Chris Mills days and summoned to memory those wonderful, sweaty nights when Josh Childress and Brevin Knight would bring out the best in McKale.
The crowd's affection for Arizona arrived at precisely the right time.
On Thursday, the Wildcats were resourceful enough to win despite shooting .328 from the field, which, to give you some context, was the second-lowest shooting night of the year, worse than all but a .300 performance at USC.
Arizona won 76-68 while shooting an unimaginable .286 in the second half. It won because it did all of the little things right: It rebounded relentlessly and, until the final few possessions, played smart, took care of the ball and forced Stanford to foul 25 times.
"If you're a good defensive team and rebounding team, you have a chance to win (while shooting poorly) but the odds are against it," Miller said.
Ordinarily, the sign of a good team is that it can win on a night it doesn't shoot well. So perhaps this was the UA's message: Don't sleep on us.
Fields is one of those rare four-year college players who subtly improved season to season, so much so that he is probably the league's most fearsome scorer. He has length, size, instincts and a touch from as far out as 20 feet.
Arizona used Jamelle Horne, Solomon Hill and even Brendon Lavender against Fields on Thursday, and in the end it was Fields who wore them down. He scored 31 points, but for Stanford to win he would have needed 38 or 40.
Strangely, it might have been Fields' lack of selfishness that cost the Cardinal more than anything else. In an eight-point game with a bit more than four minutes remaining, Fields twice passed, once to Matei Daian and another time to Elliott Bullock, when it might have been wiser to force the action. Neither of those men scored Thursday.
Daian and Bullock both lost the ball, and Arizona pushed the lead to double figures. It was too much to overcome.
"We've just got to be smarter out there," Fields said. "Some of our choices just weren't up to par. I've got to give credit to the UA. They just wanted it more than we did."
Stanford is going to be exceedingly difficult to beat at Maples Pavilion next month. It has already swept UCLA, USC, Oregon and Oregon State there, and after getting a full look at the Cardinal on Thursday, I no longer suspect Stanford's overtime loss to Kentucky on Nov. 25 was meaningless or flukish.
Fields will be gone next year, an obvious NBA talent, but coach Johnny Dawkins has recruited the Pac-10's top-rated freshman class, including 6-foot-10-inch Dwight Powell of Florida's IMG Academy. As much as Miller has exhibited that Arizona will be a major player in the Pac-10's future, Dawkins and Stanford seem equipped to maintain the first-division tradition Mike Montgomery created from 1988 to 2004.
"We're excited about our (incoming) kids," Dawkins said. "But it's all about what we're doing right now."
The same immediacy applies to Arizona. On Sunday, the Wildcats will play Cal for a share of first place. Go ahead, pinch yourself. It's way ahead of schedule, but it's true.
It might be premature to think, dream or imagine any sort of scenario in which Arizona can win the Pac-10 and advance to the NCAA tournament, but a month ago the odds of Miller coaching a team to victories over UCLA, Washington, Oregon and ASU would have edged into fantasyland.
Paradise has not been restored at McKale Center. But it is no longer a preposterous concept.


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SiS Corporation ASUS P5S-MX SE Free Driver Download
220.127.116.11 (2-Apr-2007)
Manufactured By:
SiS Corporation, Silicon Integrated Systems Corp.
File Name:
Hard Disk Controller Drivers, SCSIAdapter
Video Tutorial: How to Download & Install a Driver
Device Name
188.8.131.52 (2-Apr-2007)
Supported Operating Systems
Windows Vista, Windows Vista (64 bit), Windows 2003, Windows XP, Windows 2000, Windows NT4, Windows ME, Windows 98SE, Windows 98, Windows 95
Link to Page
Uploader Notes
WiFi-AP Solo Wireless Driver
Version 18.104.22.168
Description ASUS_WiFi_V51110.zip
ASUS WiFi-AP Solo driver V220.127.116.11 for windows xp/xp 64bit/2003/2003 64bit(WHQL)
V188.8.131.52 for Vista/Vista 64bit(WHQL)
File date: 2007/04/02
File size: 11.99 MB.
File name: ASUS_WiFi_V51110.zip
Uploaded By
Jerry K (DG Member) on 10/3/2010
Driver Package
Sis_Raid_V5110393020_V5110393300.zip (16.7 MB)
Related Drivers
Search All SiS Corporation ASUS P5S-MX SE Drivers
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Direct download is available only to our Premium Members. Free members are required to use our DriverGuide installer or consider these Premium options:
DriverGuide.com - Using DriverGuide's Installer
DriverGuide's installer software (Windows only) simplifies the driver installation process. It safely downloads and verifies your driver and then assists in the installation of it.
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58 porn super-stars are featured in 8 classic group orgy scenes. See these gorgeous, naked bodies get every hot hole stuffed, every mouth filled with hard meat and every wet slit gets drilled in this hardcore flesh-fest of pure filth....View
You are cordially invited to the party of your dreams. As your hostess Ginger Lynn takes you on a scavenger hunt through a million dollar mansion of fun. But beware: at the stroke of midnight, the real party begins....View


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Can I have an external nerve block on face so i can have juverderm fillers? The internal nerve block really hurts.
Doctor Answers 4
A nerve block is not necessary for most injections.
A nerve block is not necessary for most injections. You can request a numbing cream, most injectable clinics carry a version of this product. The cream is applied externally to numb the skin and the local anesthetic in the product will take care of any pain within the tissues.
Web reference: http://torontosurgery.ca/Toronto-Fillers-Injections.html
Fillers and Nerve Blocks
Yes, you can but it is not necessary.The Juvéderm Ultra XC has a local anesthetic in it so it will numb the tissue and the injection is virtually painless. I use a blunt cannula for the injection and will inject the Juvéderm Ultra XC before advancing the cannula, making the injection virtually painfree. The use of a blunt cannula is also safer as it will not cut any nerves or blood and there is virtually no bleeding or bruising.
Nerve blocks and fillers
Yes, you can have nerve blocks performed externally. This is easier for the upper lips as you can actually feel where the nerve is. For the lower lip, the injections are more precise when looking at the lower jaw. I agree with Dr. Stolman that numbing cream, ice, distraction and "talk-esthesia" are usually totally effective. However, nerve blocks can be effective if other methods are not. I hope this information is helpful for you.
Stephen Weber MD, FACS
Denver Facial Plastic Surgeon
Stephen Weber MD, FACS
Denver Facial Plastic Surgeon
Web reference: http://weberfacialplasticsurgery.com/facial-dermal-fillers/
You might also like...
Anesthesia for filler treatment
A topical prescription-strength numbing cream is usually adequate if applied properly and left in long enough. Plastic wrap or Saran Wrap can safely be placed on top of cream to improve the penetration, as long as the quantity of cream is limited to a face-size application. Many of the fillers now contain lidocaine numbing medicine mixed in, so there is just a small needle poke on the overlying skin. The lips are the most sensitive and need thorough numbing for comfort.
These answers are for educational purposes and should not be relied upon as a substitute for medical advice you may receive from your physician. If you have a medical emergency, please call 911. These answers do not constitute or initiate a patient/doctor relationship.


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Bob Patterson Jr Photographer
shutter_shootsPhotographer Male Toronto, Ontario, Canada
My Website: my portfolioMy MM URL: http://www.modelmayhem.com/shutter_shoots
Mayhem # 1821499
About MeHello and thanks for stopping by my page. I am a photographer and love to take my passion to the next higher level and turn it into a great lifestyle that will be cherished by every art lover.
I am always looking to shoot with new and interesting people. Perhaps we can work together?
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I do accept TFP/CD from select models. So please dont hesitate to contact me for that.
I have extensive experience in graphic design, programming and digital tools
such as Adobe Photoshop that gives me the ability to deliver images and graphic designs that work for you. Yes I photoshop my images.
I am looking forward to work with you and create the ultimate experience you can cherish for years to come. If you are interested in working with me, drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.com
I just moved to Toronto but I dont mind travelling a little bit.
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