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Pressure can occur at any position in time from any supply. It affects every person, and each particular person has their own way that works ideal to manage their anxiety. There are instances when your methods for taking care of pressure may not perform, so you have to attempt new methods. Find out some new methods to deal with your tension from this write-up.
You can conquer anxiety by getting to be energetic and selecting to workout. Do not anticipate your pressure to vanish instantly, given that this is only a way to offer with your troubles. Tension can be reduced with this method, and it also has the advantage of elevating self confidence and feeling of handle.
Selecting the music you hear to at function can be a wonderful temper booster. Mellow audio is very best when you want to relaxed yourself. If you use upbeat audio, it must have content lyrics and a content tempo.
Tea has been known to be a fantastic way to chill out. Many types of teas, including enthusiasm flower, chamomile, and kava kava, have anxiety-decreasing properties. Let the tea to steep for at minimum 10 minutes to fully improve their toughness. Consider to consume a calming cup of tea at minimum after a day, if possible early in the early morning or appropriate ahead of you go to bed.
One great way to escape from anxiety is to sit again and daydream for a whilst. See oneself in a tranquil location, and cost-free your brain to wander on its very own. Do these workout routines to offer with any demanding situations.
Obtaining pressure to the point where it isn't going to impact you that a lot, requires a good deal of planning and a lot of soul-searching. It's attainable, if you keep in mind that you handle your views and that stress is only a visitor. Do not allow stress keep and you'll be a happier individual quite quickly.


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Following in a fine YouTube tradition of sequencing loads of things at once, every Death Grips song has been laid one on top of the other, and the results are maddening.
The video starts off reasonably coherent, but by 30 seconds sounds like a pack of wolves fighting a rogue army of fax machines in an aircraft hanger.
I stuck out the full six minutes and 11 seconds, and about halfway through found myself slightly hunched, cowering in the din.
By the five minute mark most tracks have shouted themselves hoarse, just a small legion of MC Rides still sounding, and by the final 30 seconds you're left with the comparatively-soothing a cappella of 'I Want It I Need it (Death Heated)'.
Frighteningly this isn't actually every Death Grips track, just those off Exmilitary, NLDW and Gov't Plates, and all have been stripped down just to the vocals.
This whole trend started when someone on YouTube decided to play every Friends episode at once, creating some sort of Dadist nightmare.Reuse content

subset: commoncrawl


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Tariffs are Good for Inflation
The news of the day today – at least, from the standpoint of someone interested in inflation and inflation markets – was President Trump's announcement of a new tariff on Canadian lumber. The new tariff, which is a response to Canada's "alleged" subsidization of sales of lumber to the US ("alleged," even though it is common knowledge that this occurs and has occurred for many years), ran from 3% to 24% on specific companies where the US had information on the precise subsidy they were receiving, and 20% on other Canadian lumber companies.
In related news, lumber is an important input to homebuilding. Several home price indicators were out today: the FHA House Price Index for new purchases was up 6.43% y/y, the highest level in a while (see chart, source Bloomberg).
The Case-Shiller home price index, which is a better index than the FHA index, showed the same thing (see chart, source Bloomberg). The first bump in home price growth, in 2012 and 2013, was due to a rebound to the sharp drop in home prices during the credit crisis. But this latest turn higher cannot be due to the same factor, since home prices have nearly regained all the ground that they lost in 2007-2012.
Those price increases are in the prices of existing homes, of course, but I wanted to illustrate that, even without new increases in materials costs, housing costs were continuing to rise faster than incomes and faster than prices generally. But now, the price of new homes will also rise due to this tariff (unless the market is slack and so builders have to absorb the cost increase, which seems unlikely to happen). Thus, any ebbing in core inflation that we may have been expecting as home price inflation leveled off may be delayed somewhat longer.
But the tariff hike is symptomatic of a policy that provokes deeper concern among market participants. As I've pointed out previously, de-globalization (aka protectionism) is a significant threat to inflation not just in the United States, but around the world. While I am not worried that most of Trump's proposals would result in a "reflationary trade" due to strong growth – I am not convinced we have solved the demographic and productivity challenges that keep growth from being strong by prior standards, and anyway growth doesn't cause inflation – I am very concerned that arresting globalization will. This isn't all Trump's fault; he is also a symptom of a sense among workers around the world that globalization may have gone too far, and with no one around who can eloquently extol the virtues of free trade, tensions were likely to rise no matter who occupied the White House. But he is certainly accelerating the process.
Not only do inflation markets understand this, it is right now one of the most-significant things affecting levels in inflation markets. Consider the chart below, which compares 10-year breakeven inflation (the difference between 10-year Treasuries and 10-year TIPS) to the frequency of "Border Adjustment Tax" as a search term in news stories on Google.
The market clearly anticipated the Trumpflation issue, but as the concern about BAT declined so did breakevens. Until today, when 10-year breakevens jumped 5-6bps on the Canadian tariff story.
At roughly 2%, breakevens appear to be discounting an expectation that the Fed will fail to achieve its price inflation target of 2% on PCE (which would be about 2.25% on CPI), and also excluding the value of any "tail outcomes" from protectionist battles. When growth flags, I expect breakevens will as well – and they are of course not as cheap as they were last year (by some 60-70bps). But from a purely clinical perspective, it is still hard to see how TIPS can be perceived as terribly rich here, at least relative to nominal Treasury bonds.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, published in March 2016. The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- Pretty big market day! Importantly, CPI: remember last month was big upside surprise, and driven by unusual suspects – core goods.
- There's a decent base effect hurdle today, as last Feb was 0.25% on core CPI. Consensus today is for a very weak 0.2% (almost 0.1%).
- The consensus forecast clearly says that most economists see last month's shocking 0.31% on core as one-offs.
- Consensus expectation is for core to slip back to 2.2% from 2.3%. But then, last month they thought we'd fall to 2.1%.
- Hurdles get easier next month: March '16 saw 0.09% core CPI, and then a series of low 0.2s & 0.1s. So core is going up this summer.
- Here is what I said about last month's figures: https://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2017/02/15/summary-of-my-post-cpi-tweets-36/
- 5 mins to CPI. Sources say the headline number is trading 243.34 (which would be -0.04% on headline) in the CPI derivs mkt.
- core at 0.21%, higher than consensus expectations of 0.15% or so. Keeps y/y at 2.22%, down from 2.26%. But next month is an easy comp.
- Monthly core CPI prints.
- I don't pay much attention to headline but it was a little high, y/y up to 2.74%. Only matters if it affects tenor of Fed discussion.
- In major subgroups: Housing rose to 3.18% vs 3.12%. Need to see if that's energy. Apparel fell back, as did health care.
- w/in housing, Primary Rents slipped to 3.91% from 3.93%, Owner's Equiv to 3.53% from 3.54%. So the housing bump was elsewhere.
- Looks like the housing increase was mostly household energy, 4.46% from 3.51%. So no biggie as the kids say.
- Apparel 0.42% vs 0.99%. The big jump last month was mostly reversed. Overall core services 3.1% and core goods dropped back to -0.5%
- Last month the big story was that core goods had caused the jump in core CPI. Looks like these were mostly seasonal issues after all.
- Transportation 6.3% vs 4.8%. That's mostly gasoline. New & used cars slipped. But rising: parts, maintenance, insurance, airfares.
- In Medical Care, big drop in medicinal drugs 4.19% vs 4.85%. Also drop in prof svcs (2.68% v 2.94%). THOSE are the one-offs this month.
- Here are y/y med care & housing, source of the big upward pressure recently. But remember this month the housing is mostly energy.
- Four more major subcategories. Recreation is the only one moving higher, but it's a heterogeneous group & hard to decipher.
- Quick estimate of Median is 0.21% m/m, 2.52% y/y, not quite a new high. Official figure will be out later.
- Next month we should have core back over 2.3% and a shot at 2.4%, thanks to easy comp in March.
- 10y inflation swaps still below current median inflation.
- Mkt pretty confident in Fed: CPI mkt pricing: 2017 2.0%;2018 2.2%;then 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.7%, & 2027:2.5%.
- This CPI report takes inflation off the boil, but not off the burner.
- One more chart: weight of CPI categories over 3% inflation y/y.
Let's face it. While this month's CPI held some intrigue because of last month's surprising spike, nothing about the figure was likely to change the outcome of today's FOMC meeting and probably not the tenor of the statement or post-meeting presser. So, in that sense, this was a much less-significant report than last month's release.
At the same time…let's not lose sight of the fact that this was still an above-consensus CPI report. While the consensus was broadly correct that some of the jumps in core goods categories from last month were one-offs, and at least partially retraced this month, it's still the case that y/y core inflation is going to keep rising through the summer merely on base effects. If the Fed wants to be hawkish and tighten more than the market currently expects (I think that nothing could be further from the truth, with Yellen at the helm, but she seems to dislike President Trump enough that she might forget some of her dovish leanings), then they will continue to have cover from inflation reports for a while.
Going forward from that, there are two inflation questions that will be resolved: (1) Will core goods recover and rise, indicating a broadening of inflation impulses that could produce a longer-tail upside? And (2) will housing inflation flatten out or decline since rent inflation is currently rising faster than even our most-generous models? If it does, then core inflation might stabilize near the current level, or even decline.
I have trouble figuring out what the mechanism would be for inflation to flatten out at these levels, from the macro-monetary perspective. Money growth remains brisk and higher interest rates should eventually goose velocity. I don't see much prospect of money growth rolling over while banks are neither capital- nor reserve- constrained. And it's hard to see interest rates heading back down while central banks shift into less-accommodative stances. I have more confidence in the macro-monetary ("top down") model at longer time frames, and more confidence in the bottom-up analysis at shorter time frames. And for years they've told the same story: inflation should be rising, and it has. But there is a conflict between these perspectives that is coming later this year. How it resolves will be the story of the next 3-6 months.
Good Models and Bad Models
I have recently begun to spend a fair amount of time explaining the difference between a "good model" and a "bad model;" it seemed to me that this was a reasonable topic to put on the blog.
The difference between a good model and a bad model isn't as obvious as it seems. Many people think that a "good model" is one that makes correct predictions, and a "bad model" is one that makes bad predictions. But that is not the case, and understanding why it isn't the case is important for economists and econometricians. Frankly, I suspect that many economists can't articulate the difference between a good model and a bad model…and that's why we have so many bad models floating around.
The definition is simple. A good model is one which makes good predictions if high-quality inputs are given to the model; a bad model is one in which even the correct inputs doesn't result in good predictions. At the limit, a model that produces predictions that are insensitive to the quality of the inputs – that is, whose predictions are just as accurate no matter what the inputs are – is pure superstition.
For example, a model of the weather that depends on casting chicken bones and rat entrails is a pretty bad model since the arrangement of such articles is not likely to bear upon the likelihood of rain. On the other hand, a model used to forecast the price of oil in five years as a function of the supply and demand of oil in five years is probably an excellent model, even though it isn't likely to be accurate because those are difficult inputs to know. One feature of a good model, then, is that the forecaster's attention should shift to the forecasting of the inputs.
This distinction is relevant to the current state of practical economics because of the enormous difference in the quality of "Keynesian" models (such as the expectations-augmented Phillips curve approach) and of monetarist models. The simplest such monetarist model is shown below. It relates the GDP-adjusted quantity of money to the level of prices.
This chart does not incorporate changes in money velocity (which show up as deviations between the two lines), and yet you can see the quality of the model: if you had known in 1948 the size of the economy in 2008, and the quantity of M2 money there would be in 2008, then you would have had a very accurate prediction of the cumulative rate of inflation over that 60-year period. We can improve further on this model by noting that velocity is not random, but rather is causally related to interest rates. And so we can state the following: if we had known in 2007 that the Fed was going to vastly expand its balance sheet, causing money supply to grow at nearly a 10% rate y/y in mid-2009, but at the same time 5-year interest rates would be forced from 5% to 1.2% in late 2010, then we would have forecast inflation to decline sharply over that period. The chart below shows a forecast of the GDP deflator, based on a simple model of money velocity that was calibrated on 1977-1997 (so that this is all out-of-sample).
That's a good model. Now, even solid monetarists didn't forecast that inflation would fall as far as it did – but that's not a failure of the model but a failure of imagination. In 2007, no one suspected that 5-year interest rates would be scraping 1% before long!
Contrariwise, the E-A-Phillips Curve model has a truly disastrous forecasting history. I wrote an article in 2012 in which I highlighted Goldman Sachs' massive miss from such a model, and their attempts to resuscitate it. In that article, I quoted these ivory tower economists as saying:
"Economic principles suggest that core inflation is driven by two main factors. First, actual inflation depends on inflation expectations, which might have both a forward-looking and a backward-looking component. Second, inflation depends on the extent of slack (or spare capacity) in the economy. This is most intuitive in the labor market: high unemployment means that many workers are looking for jobs, which in turn tends to weigh on wages and prices. This relationship between inflation, expectations of inflation and slack is called the "Phillips curve."
You may recognize these two "main factors" as being the two that were thoroughly debunked by the five economists earlier this month, but the article I wrote is worth re-reading because it describes how the economists re-calibrated. Note that the economists were not changing the model inputs, or saying that the forecasted inputs were wrong. The problem was that even with the right inputs, they got the wrong output…and that meant in their minds that the model should be recalibrated.
But that's the wrong conclusion. It isn't that a good model gave bad projections; in this case the model is a bad model. Even having the actual data – knowing that the economy had massive slack and there had been sharp declines in inflation expectations – the model completely missed the upturn in inflation that actually happened because that outcome was inconsistent with the model.
It is probably unfair of me to continue to beat on this topic, because the question has been settled. However, I suspect that many economists will continue to resist the conclusion, and will continue to rely on bad, and indeed discredited, models. And that takes the "bad model" issue one step deeper. If the production of bad predictions even given good inputs means the model is bad, then perhaps relying on bad models when better ones are available means the economist is bad?
The Fed Needs More Inflation Nerds
Earlier today I was on Bloomberg<GO> when the PCE inflation figures were released. As usual, it was an enjoyable time even if Alix Steel did call me a 'big inflation nerd' or something to that effect.
The topic was, of course, PCE – as well as inflation in general, how the Fed might respond (or not), and what the effect of the new Administration's policies may be. You can see the main part of the discussion here, although not the part where Alix calls me a nerd. A man has some pride.
My main point regarding the PCE report was that PCE isn't terribly low, but rather right on the long-run average as the chart below (all charts source Bloomberg) shows. Of course, PCE has been lagging behind the rise in CPI, but because it had been "too tight" previously this isn't yet abnormal.
However, in the interview I didn't get to the really nerdy part. Perhaps my ego was still stinging and so I didn't want to highlight the nerdiness?[1] No matter. The nerdy part is that the reason PCE is low is actually no longer because of Medical Care, but because of housing. This next chart plots the spread of core CPI over core PCE, through last month's figures, versus Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER).
Housing has a much higher weight in the CPI than in the PCE, and as you can see the plodding nature of OER means that the correlation is somewhat persistent because housing inflation is somewhat persistent. Right now, OER (which, frankly, I thought would have leveled off by now) is rising and showing no signs of slowing, and this fact has served to widen the CPI-PCE spread back to its historical average and likely will cause it to widen to an above-average level. I suppose the good news there is that it is still true that outside of housing, core inflation is still not rising aggressively. Core services ex-housing are looking perkier, but core goods continue to languish as the dollar remains strong. The strength of the dollar almost beggars belief if it's true that the rest of the world hates us now, but it is what it is.
The bigger point, for markets, is "so what?" There is nothing about a 1.7% core PCE that presents any urgency for Chairman Yellen. As I said on the program: as Yellen approaches the end of her chairmanship (in January 2018, since she insists Trump won't chase her out before), I believe it is much more likely that she wants to be remembered for pushing the unemployment rate very low – because she believes inflation is easily controlled – than that she wants to be remembered for being a hawk that stopped inflation from getting going. She isn't worried about inflation, and so the question is whether she wants to be criticized for adding "too many" jobs, or not adding enough. Not that monetary policy has much to do with that, but I believe she clearly will err on the side of keeping policy too loose. The Fed isn't tightening this week, and I find it unlikely that they will tighten in March, unless inflation expectations rise considerably further than they have already (see chart of 5y5y inflation forward from CPI swaps, below). Even after the big rally since late last year, 5y5y is well below the long-term average through 2014.
And even if inflation expectations do rise further, the excuse from the chair will be easy: expectations are rising because the end (and possible reversal) of the globalization dividend and the imposition of tariffs will lead to higher prices. But there is nothing that Fed policy can do about this – it is a supply-side effect, just as high oil prices due to OPEC production restraints would represent a supply-side effect that the Fed shouldn't respond to. So the excuses are all there for Dr. Yellen. History will show that she missed a chance to shrink the Fed's balance sheet and avert the worst of the next inflationary upturn, but that history will not be written for some time.
[1] Ridiculous, of course. I embrace my nerdiness, at least when it comes to inflation.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, published in March 2016. The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- Last CPI of 2016…fire it up!
- Core +0.23%, a bit higher than expected. Market was looking for 0.16% or so.
- y/y core CPI rises to 2.21%. The core print was the second highest since last Feb.
- For a change, the BLS has the full data files posted so brb with more analysis. Housing subcomponent jumped, looking now.
- Just saw this. Pretty cool. Our calculator https://www.enduringinvestments.com/calculators/cpi.php … pretty cool too but not updated instantly.
- BLS-Labor Statistics @BLS_gov: See our interactive graphics on today's new Consumer Price Index data http://go.usa.gov/x9mMG #CPI #BLSdata #DataViz
- As I said, housing rose to 3.04% from 2.90% y/y. Primary Rents jumped to 3.96% from 3.88%; OER 3.57% from 3.54%.
- Household energy was also higher, so some of the housing jump was actually energy. But the rise in primary rents matters.
- Will come back to that. Apparel y/y slipped back into deflation (dollar effect). Recreation and Education steady. "Other" up a bit.
- In Medical Care, 4.07% vs 3.98%. That had recently retraced a bit but back on the + side. Drugs, Prof. Svcs, and Hospital Svcs all +
- Medicinal drugs. Not a new high but maybe the retracement is done.
- Core services up to 3.1% from 3.0%; core goods -0.6% vs -0.7%.
- That's consistent with our view: stronger USD will keep core goods in or near deflation but it shouldn't get much worse.
- The dollar is just not going to cause core deflation in the US. Import/export sector is too small.
- Core ex-housing rose to 1.20% from 1.12%. Still not exactly alarming!
- Not from this report, but wages are worrying people and here's why:
- However, wages tend to follow inflation, not lead it. I always add that caveat. But it matters for Fed reaction function.
- Next few months are the challenge for renewed upward swing in core CPI – Jan and Feb 2016 were both high and drop out of the y/y.
- Early guess at Median CPI, which I think is a better measure of inflation…my back of envelope is 0.24% m/m, 2.61% y/y…new high.
- CPI in 4 pieces. #1 Food & Energy (about 21%)
- CPI in 4 pieces. #2 Core Goods (about 20%)
- CPI in 4 pieces. #3 Core Services less Rent of Shelter (about 27%)
- CPI in 4 pieces. #4 Rent of Shelter (about 33%)
- This is why people are worried re' inflation AND why people dismiss it. "It's just housing." Yeh, but that's the persistent part.
- Scary part about rents is that it's accelerating even above our model, and we have been among the more aggressive forecast.
- OK, that's all for this morning. Anyone going to the Inside ETFs conference next week? Look me up.
We end 2016 with the outlook in limbo, at least looking at these charts – unless January and February print 0.3% on core inflation, core CPI will be hanging around 2% for at least the next few months. Median inflation is more worrisome, as it will probably hit a new high when it is reported later today, but it doesn't get the ink that core CPI or core PCE gets.
To my mind, the underlying trends are still very supportive of a cyclical (secular??) upswing in core inflation. Here's a summary of two of the pieces that people care about a lot. Housing is much bigger, but slower; Medical Care is more responsive, but smaller.
I suspect that chart is enough to keep most consumers jittery with respect to inflation, but as long as retail gasoline prices stay below $3/gallon there won't be much of an outcry. But that doesn't matter. M2 money growth accelerated throughout 2016 as the economy improved, and ended the year at 7.6% y/y. Interest rates are rising, which will help push money velocity higher. It's hard to see how that turns into a disinflationary outcome.
Not So Fast on the Trump Bull Market
**NOTE – please see the announcement at the end of this article, regarding a series of free webinars that begins next Monday.**
Whatever else the election of Donald Trump to be President of the United States has meant, it has meant a lot of excitement in precincts that worry about inflation. This is usually attributed, among the chattering classes, to the faster growth expected if Mr. Trump's expressed preference for tax cuts and spending increases obtains. However, since growth doesn't cause inflation that isn't the part of a Trump Presidency that concerns me with respect to a continuing rise in inflation.
In our latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook, I wrote a short piece on the significance of the de-globalization movement for inflation. That is an area where, if the President-Elect delivers on his promises, a lot of damage could be done in the growth/inflation tradeoff. I have written before about how a big part of the reason for the generous growth/inflation tradeoff of the 1990s was the rapid globalization of many industries following the end of the Cold War. Deutsche Bank recently produced a research piece (I don't recall whether it had anything to do with inflation, weirdly) that contained the following chart (Source: as cited).
This chart is the "smoking gun" that supports this version of events, in terms of why the inflation dynamic shifted in the early 1990s. Free trade helped to restrain prices in certain goods (apparel is a great example – prices are essentially unchanged over the last 25 years), by allowing the possibility of significant cost savings on production.
The flip side of a cost savings on production, though, is a loss of domestic manufacturing jobs; it is this loss that Mr. Trump took productive advantage of. If Mr. Trump moves to increase tariffs and other barriers to trade, and to reverse some of the globalization trend that has driven lower prices for the last quarter-century, it is potentially very negative news for inflation. While there was some evidence that the globalization dividend was beginning to get 'tapped out' as all of the low-hanging fruit had been harvested – and such a development would cause inflation to be higher than otherwise it would have been – I had not expected the possibility of a reversal of the globalization dividend except as a possible and minor side-effect of tensions with Russia over the Ukraine, or the effect the Syrian refugee problem could have on open borders. The election of Mr. Trump, however, creates the very real possibility that the reversal of this dividend might be a direct consequence of conscious policy choices.
I don't think that's the main reason that people are worried about inflation, though. Today, one contributor is the news that OPEC actually agreed to cut production, in January, and that some non-OPEC producers agreed to an additional cut. U.S. shale oil producers are clicking their heels in delight, because oil prices were already high enough that production was increasing again and they are more than happy to take more market share back. Oil prices are up about 15% since the announcement.
But that's near-term, and I don't expect the oil rally has legs much beyond current levels. Breakevens have been rallying, though, for weeks. Some of it isn't related to Trump at all but to other initiatives. One correspondent of mine, who owns an office-cleaning business, sent me this note today:
"Think of you often lately as I'm on the front line out here of the "instant" 25% increase in min wage. Voters decided to move min wage out here from 8.05 to $10 jan 1. Anyone close to 10/hr is looking for a big raise. You want to talk about fast dollars, hand a janitor a 25% pay bump and watch the money move. Big inflation numbers pending from the southwest. I'm passing some through but market is understandably reacting slower than the legislation."
Those increases will definitely increase measured inflation further, though by a lot less than it increases my friend's costs. Again, it's an arrow pointing the wrong way for inflation. And, really, there aren't many pointing the right way. M2 growth continues to accelerate; it is now at 7.8% y/y. That is too fast for price stability, especially as rates rise.
All of these arrows add up to substantial moves in inflation breakevens. 10-year breaks are up 55bps since September and 30bps since the election. Ten-year inflation expectations as measured more accurately by inflation swaps are now at 2.33%. Almost all of that rise has been in expectations for core inflation. The oft-watched 5y5y forward inflation (which takes us away from that part of the curve which is most impacted by energy movements) is above 2.5% again and, while still below the "normal" 2.75%-3.25% range, is at 2-year highs (see Chart, source Bloomberg).
So what is an investor to do – other than to study, which there is an excellent opportunity to do for the next three Mondays with a series of educational webinars I am conducting (see details below)? There are a few good answers. At 0.46%, 10-year TIPS still represent a poor real return but a guaranteed positive 1/2% real return beats what is available from many risky assets right now. Commodities remain cheap, although less so. You can invest in a company that specializes in inflation, if you are an accredited investor: Enduring Investments is raising a small amount of money for the management company in a 506(c) offering and is still taking subscriptions. Unfortunately, it is difficult to own inflation expectations directly – and in any event, the easy money there has been made.
What you don't want to do if you are worried about inflation is own stocks as a "hedge." Multiples move inversely with inflation.
Unlike prior equity market rallies, I understand this one. It is plausible to me that a very business-friendly President, who cuts corporate and personal taxes and reduces regulatory burdens, might be good for corporate earnings and even for the economic growth rate (although the bad things coming on trade will blunt some of that). But before getting too ebullient about the potential for higher corporate earnings, consider this: if Trump is business-friendly, then surely the opposite must be said about President Obama who did essentially the reverse. But what happened to equities? They tripled over his eight years (perhaps they "only" doubled, depending on when you measure from). That's because lower interest rates and the Fed's removal of safe securities in search of a stimulus from the "portfolio balance channel" caused equity multiples to expand drastically. So, valuations went from low, to extremely high. Multiples matter a lot, and right now even if you think corporate earnings over the next four years might be stronger than over the last four you still have to confront the fact that multiples are more likely to move in reverse. In short: if stocks could triple under Obama, there is no reason on earth they can't halve under a "business-friendly" President. That's not a prediction. (But here is one: equities four years from now will be no more than 20% higher than they are now, and might well be lower.)
Also, remember Ronald Reagan? He who created the great bull market of the 1980s? Well, stocks rallied in the November he was elected, too. The S&P closed November 1980 at 140.52. Over the next 20 months, the index lost 24%. It wasn't until almost 1983 before Reagan had a bull market on his hands.
An administrative announcement about upcoming (free!) webinars:
On consecutive Mondays spanning December 5, December 12, and December 19 at 11:00ET, I will be doing a series of one-hour educational seminars on inflation. The first is "How Inflation Works;" the second is "Inflation and Asset Classes;" and the third is "Inflation-aware Investing." These webinars will also have live Q&A. After each session, a recording will be available on Investing.com.
Each of these webinars is financially sponsored by Enduring Investments.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, published in March 2016. The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- CPI consensus is for a "soft" 0.2% on core. With 2 of the last 3 months quite low for one-off reasons, I am a little skeptical.
- Rolling off an 0.196% m/m core from Oct 2015. Need about 0.23% to get y/y to tick back up to 2.3% on core.
- Wow, 0.1% m/m on core and y/y goes DOWN to 2.1%! But not as impressive as that. To 3 decimals it's 0.149% and 2.144%. Still, soft.
- The doves just got another bullet.
- Component breakdown very slow coming in….bls hasn't posted data yet.
- The overall number doesn't mean much without the breakdown…still waiting on BLS.
- Well, this is anticlimactic. BLS just not putting up the data. No data, no analysis.
- Looks like a sharp fall m/m in some medical care commodities, but BLS report itself only gives 1-decimal rounding and no y/y comparisons.
- BLS a half hour late now. Wonder if they're all in "safe spaces" today.
- Well, I see one reason. Apparently the BLS made an error in prescription drugs and actually revised all of the indices back to May.
- …including the headline NSA figure. That's an error with huge implications. It means the Tsy made wrong int payments on some TIPS.
- NSA was 240.236, 241.038, 240.647, 240.853, and 241.428 for May-Sep. Now 240.229, 241.018, 240.628, 240.849, 241.428
- Market guys telling me Tsy will use the old numbers for TIPS and derivatives. And hey! Look at that. BLS decided to release figures.
- Gonna be an interesting breakdown actually. Surge in Housing and jump in Apparel, but plunge in Medical Care, Rec, & Communication.
- Core services 3% from 3.2% y/y, core goods -0.5% from -0.6%.
- OK! Housing 2.87% from 2.70%. BIG jump. Apparel 0.68% from -0.09%. Medical 4.26% from 4.89%. All big moves.
- Primary Rents: 3.79% vs 3.70%; Owners' Equiv Rent 3.45% vs 3.38%. Lodging away from home 4.37% vs 3.73%. All big jumps.
- In Apparel (@notayesmansecon ), Women's 0.27% vs -0.35%, but it was 1.57% 3 months ago. Girls tho: 3.06% vs 1.95%, vs -4.73% 3mo ago.
- In Med Care: Drugs 5.24% vs 5.38% ok. Med Equip -0.79% vs -0.61% ok. Hospital Svcs 4.06% vs 5.64% !, Health Ins 6.93% vs 8.37% !.
- Median should be about 0.16%, but median category looks like Midwest Urban OER so there's seasonal adj I am just estimating.
- That would keep Median at 2.49%, down from 2.54%. But all this looks temporary.
- Core ex-housing dropped to 1.20%, lowest since last Nov. But it was as low as 0.87% last year.
- Here is the summary: Rent of Shelter continues to rise, and actually faster than our traditional model. Services ex-Shelter decelerated.
- Core goods continues to languish. But here's the thing: Housing is stickier than the rest of Core Services.
- So unless somehow hospital prices just started to drop, this isn't as soothing as the headline.
- That said, this is the most dovish Fed in history. If the market continues to price 90+% chance of hike, they will…but…
- …but if we get more weak growth figures, the 2-month moderation in inflation will be enough for them to wait one more meeting.
- Employment numbr is key. Meanwhile, infl is going to keep rising. Housing worries me. Higher wages might keep housing momentum going.
- Here are the two categories that constitute 50% of CPI. Housing and Medical Care. Not soothing.
- Here's another 30%. Volatile categories we usually look through.
- Last 20% of CPI are these 4 categories. They're the ones to watch. Nothing too worrisome yet.
- Here's the FRED inflation heat map. Yeah, these were all charts that were SUPPOSED to be in my de-brief.
- Compare distributions from last month (smaller bar on far left) and this month (bigger bar on far left).
- More negatives, but some of the longest bar shifted higher too. More dispersion overall.
I keep coming back to the housing number. That jump is disturbing, because most folks expected housing to start decelerating. I thought it would level out too (though at a higher level than others felt – roughly where it is now, 3.5% on OER, but it's showing no signs of fading). Here's the reason why. It's a chart of a model of Owners' Equivalent Rent:
This nominal model is simply the average of models based on lags of various measures of home prices. We were supposed to level off and decline some time ago…but certainly by now. And so far there's no sign of that.
Our model is a bit more sophisticated, but if you rely on lags of nominal variables you're going to get something like this because housing price increases have leveled off (that is, housing prices are still rising, but they're rising at a constant, and slightly slower, rate than they were).
Now, here's the worry. All of these models are calibrated during a time when inflation in general was low, so there's a real chance that we're not capturing feedback effects. That is to say, when broad inflation rises it pushes wages up faster, and that tends to support a higher level of housing inflation. We have a pretty coarse model of this feedback loop, and the upshot is that if you model housing inflation as a spread compared to overall or core inflation, rather than as a level, you get different dynamics – and dynamics that are more in tune with what seems to be happening to housing inflation. Now, it's way too early to say that's what's happening here, but with housing at our forecast level and still evidently rising, it's time to start watching.
An administrative announcement about upcoming (free!) webinars:
On consecutive Mondays spanning November 28, December 5, and December 12, at 11:00ET, I will be doing a series of one-hour educational seminars on inflation. The first is "How Inflation Works;" the second is "Inflation and Asset Classes;" and the third is "Inflation-aware Investing." These webinars will also have live Q&A. After each session, a recording will be available on Investing.com.
Each of these webinars is financially sponsored by Enduring Investments.


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Beautiful house and very nice peoplePilar2016-02-14T00:00:00Z
Die Gastgeberin Maria hat an dem Anreisetag bis spät Abends auf uns gewartet, das war super! Die Kommunikation verlief reibungslos. In dem Ferienhaus gibt es alles, was man zum täglichen Leben braucht- und die Küche ist wirklich super ausgestattet. Für uns fünf, 2 Erwachsenen + 2 Kinder + 1 Baby, gab es genug Platz. Für Kids gab viele Brettspiele im Wohnzimmer. Die Bauernhoftiere kann man besuchen und einiges darüber erfahren. Im Dorf kann man frische Eier, Mehl und Milch kaufen. Es gibt gleich nebenan eine Gaststätte, die Supermärkte befinden sich in 4 Km Entfernung. Wir waren rundum zufrieden, sicher würden wir nochmal kommen.Bas2016-03-04T00:00:00Z
독일 농촌(닭,당나귀,칠면조,고양이 등). 아이를 배려한 시설(유아용 침대,목욕테이블,보조의자,각종 장난감 등). 넓은 주택, 따뜻한 난방. 접근성(뉘른베른크 동물원,플레이 모빌 펀파크,호수 등) 3일을 잘보냈습니다Sudong2016-10-08T00:00:00Z
Wir haben dort einen wunderbaren Kurzurlaub genossen. Die Wohnung ist im Ortskern gelegen und komfortabel mit Möbeln im Landhausstil eingerichtet. Bis zum Brombachsee sind es ca. 10 min, dort waren wir viel wandern und fahrrad fahren. Maria ist eine sehr nette und gute Gastgeberin. Es gibts einen Brötchenservice und man kann frische Bio Eier direkt vom Hof bekommen. Außerdem hat sie uns angeboten uns den kleinen Esel und die restlichen Tiere des Hofs zu zeigen. Es war sehr schön und wir würden jederzeit gern wieder bei Maria Urlaub machenJörn2015-11-08T00:00:00Z
Wir haben einen schönen Urlaub in Marias gemütlichen Ferienwohnung verbracht. Die Wohnung ist sehr nett eingerichtet und die Küche ist super ausgestattet. Einen Parkplatz hat man direkt vor der Ferienwohnung. Es gibt eine Menge schöne Ausflugsziele in der Region.Ike2017-01-07T00:00:00Z
Sehr liebevoll und hochwertig ausgestattete Ferienwohnung (nur so als Beispiel: Scharfe Messer. Filtertüten für Kaffee. Wirklich genügend Geschirr ud Besteck. Nicht nur ein Fernseher, sondern auch ein CD Player. Und so weiter). Viel Platz. Tolle Atmosphäre in dem uralten Fachwerkhaus mit den Holzbalken, das sehr liebevoll hergerichtet ist, dabei aber allen Ansprüchen genügt. Super freundlice und unkomplizierte Kommunikation. Wir haben uns alle fünf außerordentlich wohl gefühlt.Ulrich2016-12-27T00:00:00Z
la casa estaba muy bien, como aparece en las fotos, acogedora, mis compañeros estuvieron muy tranquilos y bien. Gracias a la anfitriona muy amable.MARIA2017-02-10T00:00:00Z
La casa esta muy bien, mis compañeros estuvieron tranquilos y a gusto. Ya nos hemos alojado varias veces en ella y nos gusta. Gracias a María la anfitriona.MARIA2017-03-03T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Höttingen - Fiegenstall, Bayern, Germany
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Röttenbach, Bayern, Germany
Maika's house is perfect. absolute calm, beautifully maintained, ideal location in one of German's most perfect farmers. Don't miss this. Highly recommended. And Maika's family they are kind and made me feel at home.Won Hon2013-02-07T00:00:00Z
We were really happy with everything at Maika and Stefan's house. We were a group of 6 people, used all the rooms and the place was fantastic. Maika is the greatest host.Lubo2015-02-16T00:00:00Z
Maika was a great host and the house was perfect! One of the most beautiful and comfortable places I've ever stayed. Cute, Warm, spacey, accommodating my 6 person party with more then enough space. The surrounding towns are also very comforting and relaxing. Small towns with museums, small breweries and a romantic castle. Since we were in Nuremberg for Bio Fach (a bio food exhibition), Maika advised us to visit a nearby bio bakery, cheese factory and brewery which she called and booked a tour for us for each destination. Our stay at Maika's house was more then perfect. Thanks to Maika and her family!! Thanks Mika!!TOMOAKI2014-02-15T00:00:00Z
Maika and Stefan are the perfect hosts, and their house is absolutely wonderful. Our family of 6 had a fantastic 4 days at their place. The house is very large and comfortable, with excellent heating and everything you could need. There is a lot of living space, the bedrooms are large, and the whole house is well equipped. I would say that it's even better than the photos. The area itself is quiet and beautiful (especially in the snow!). It was exactly what we were looking for. Both Maika and Stefan were really friendly and welcoming. We really felt that they wanted us to enjoy our stay, and we felt at home. They really went above and beyond to make us feel comfortable and relaxed. Maika and Stefan suggested a number of things to do and see in the area, including a great local German restaurant, which we really enjoyed (twice!). We would highly recommend Maika and Stefan's place, and we hope to be back one day! So much more to see!Mat2016-04-29T00:00:00Z
Absolutely amazing!!! My family and I (seven of us total) stayed during the Christmas holiday and Maika and Stephan went out of their way to provide a Christmas tree for us with lights and ornaments. They were extremely friendly and accommodating and even showed us a tour of a nearby town. They were very hospitable. I highly recommend this place. The location for us was perfect because we had hired a car. If you are planning to stay here I suggest hiring a car because the nearest city (Nuremberg) is a 30 minute drive. The space is HUGE. Three floors with 7 beds total. Plenty of space. The pictures don't do it justice. We enjoyed our stay and would definitely book again if we are ever in the area!Christina2016-12-27T00:00:00Z
Maika was a pilot flying commercial planes and she is very cheerful to warmly host our party of 5 Korean business people attending SPS exhibition some 43 km away from her town, Pleinfeld , a town of rural beauty historic legacy dating back to the era of Roman empire. Her house is very spacious and 600 year old historic legacy of old castle days. The guest house and her residence is just 50 meters way sharing the same parking lot. On the last day morning.she kindly gave us a very pleasant tour to a nearby old castle town where we could visit a brewary for a beer drink of authentic Bavarian flaver. Maika family kindly rode our team every morning and evening to and from Pleinfeld railway station less than 10 minutes away on two separate cars mobilizing the family member to drive the 2nd car across the beautiful country farm land scape. The hourly shuttle train connection to Nuremberg Hbf was not bad taking some 40 minutes for short sleep or reading on a less crowded train. After all, it was wonderful and very enjoyable stay at that comfortable house. I will stay again there renting a car next time. We left home at 7:30 AM everyday and arrived at SPS exhibition hall around 8:50AM, transferring to U bahn to the exhibition site. Sun Yong KimSun Yong 2016-11-26T00:00:00Z
Maika could not have been more welcoming, or more lovely! An absolutely wonderful host. The pictures do not do the accommodation justice. It was a very enjoyable and comfortable stay. We stayed for Challenge Roth, for which it is a 20 minute drive. Nice that you can get away from all the other triathletes, but close that you can be in the centre in minutes. And Pleinfeld is a lovely little village, with everything you need. Overall, a wonderful stay, that could not have been better. Thank you Maika!Duncan2016-07-19T00:00:00Z
Wir haben die Unterkunft von Maika für unsere australischen Artisten angemietet. Die Kommunikation war sehr unkompliziert, Maika hilfsbereit und die Jungs haben sich ausgesprochen wohl gefühlt. Falls wir mal wieder eine kleine Gruppe für ein paar Tage unterbringen müssen, werden wir gerne wie der an Maika denken.Clarissa2015-10-10T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Pleinfeld, Bavaria, Germany
This house is a very good deal for the money. Everything is a bit old fashioned, but clean and very comfortable. The kitchen stove is a pleasure on cold evenings, but there is central heating anyway.Bernard2015-02-14T00:00:00Z
Very cosy and homey, a great place to stay with children!Jan2016-10-26T00:00:00Z
We had an enchanting experience at Hubert's it was like visiting family in Bavaria. The house was adorable. Hubert speaks great English and is very welcoming. He showed us around his whole property, gave us a little history of the area, and a private showing of his art work. He is very talented. I wish I had more time to get to know him and his wife, and to walk the countryside out side of his house. He encouraged us to use the train to get to Nurnburg for the Christmas market. That worked out very well. It was a great country vacation near a big city. We also drove an hour to Rothenburg ob der tauber, that was also a very enchanting experience.Steph2015-11-29T00:00:00Z
Staying here was a truly wonderful experience. Really Clean, big beds that have a good feel, wood fired oven in the kitchen. You could not wish to meet nicer people than Hubert and Jutta who live next door. I feel totally energised after my stay here. The countryside here is also extremely beautiful. I have only good things I can tell you.Gary2015-03-10T00:00:00Z
Hubert and his family were so kind, and their property is one of the most charming places I've ever been. Since we hadn't rented a car, not realizing quite how remote the property was (though it's still only a quite doable bike ride into the surrounding towns and there are fairly frequent buses almost to their door during the week), Hubert picked us up from the Georgensmünd train station, took us for groceries (even helping me pick out local beer), and spent time showing us their horses, gardens, dogs. Our children loved the horses and dogs. Our stay was during a heat wave but the bottom floor of the apartment was still very cool through the whole day, and there was a playground right across the street with fine, clean sand. Such a lovely place that we didn't really even feel much need to sight-see!Adam2015-07-04T00:00:00Z
The house is very good, and Mr. Hubert and Mrs. Hubert are very nice, the rooms are very clean. I think, I will rent the house next time I will be in this city.zhi2015-04-23T00:00:00Z
The reservation was canceled 11 days before arrival. This is an automated posting.Katharina2015-05-03T00:00:00Z
Every return to this house was like return at home. Thank you, Hubert and Jutah!Дарья2016-02-02T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Georgensgmünd, Bavaria, Germany
The ferienhaus of Heidi and Wilfried was just what we wanted - a comfortable base from which we could explore the beautiful natural surroundings. We loved seeing their animals, there was lots of information on what to do in the area and we were given a fantastic suggestion of where to go for dinner. Many thanks Heidi and Wilfried. Next time we need more time.Evan2017-01-14T00:00:00Z
Everything was perfect! The house is very beautiful with new equipements. Wilfried and his wife are very kind and very attentive! thanks for all!!!Clémence2017-02-07T00:00:00Z
Great guests! Caring and extremely careful.Ciprian2017-02-17T00:00:00Z
prima, tolles Haus in jeder Hinsicht, sehr sauber und gemütlich, nette hilfsbereite Gastgeber, alles da für KinderLena2016-09-26T00:00:00Z
Wilfrieds Haus ist ein wunderschönes altes Bauernhaus, liebevoll renoviert und hochwertig ausgestattet. Die Küche bietet alles, was man auch für aufwändigere Gerichte benötigt, der Esstisch ist riesig, das Sofa sehr bequem - und das WLAN schnell. Wir waren sechs Erwachsene mit drei Kindern von 9 Monaten bis 7 Jahren und haben bei Wilfried ein sehr schönes Wochenende verbracht. Die Schlafzimmer sind schön und die Betten ein Traum. Obwohl wir so viele Personen waren, hatten wir nie das Gefühl, dass es zu eng wäre. Die Tiere auf dem Hof haben die Kinder begeistert, ein Spielplatz ist auch in der Nähe. In Summe ist es die perfekte Unterkunft für größere Familien mit Kindern. Wir planen jedenfalls, in absehbarer Zeit wiederzukommen. Danke an Anika, die uns in Empfang genommen hat.Katarina2017-02-19T00:00:00Z
Wir wurden am Tag der Ankunft sehr freundlich und zuvorkommend empfangen. Wir wurden gleich durch das Haus geführt, was auf uns einen sehr sauberen und gepflegten Eindruck machte. Zimmer auf zwei Etagen, zwei schöne Bäder, eine schöne Küche und im Wohnzimmer ein klasse Kachelofen den wir jeden abend befeuerten um die wohnliche Wärme und das knacken des Holzes zu genießen. Feuerholz ist in großer Menge vorhanden. Es gibt aber auch eine Fußbodenheizung. Toll fand besonders unser 5 jähriges Patenkind jeden morgen Frühstückseier aus den Nestern zu sammeln. Auf Bestellung hängte unsere Gastgeberin uns jeden morgen frische Brötchen an die Türklinke. Darüber hinaus waren unsere Gastgeber auch jeder Zeit für Rückfragen offen und erreichbar. Wir haben uns dort sehr wohl gefühlt und würden gern im Sommer wieder kommen.Rene2016-12-30T00:00:00Z
Das Haus und die Gastgeber sind der Hammer! Würde jederzeit wieder kommen und auch absolut für alle zu empfehlen!Anne2017-02-26T00:00:00Z
Wir hatten ein wunderschönes Wochenende! Das Häuschen ist total gemütlich, sehr schön renoviert, bietet genug Platz für viele Leute und ist optimal ausgestattet. Die Gastgeber sind sehr nett und man kann sich jederzeit mit Fragen an sie wenden - alles top, gerne wieder! :)Lukas2017-04-02T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Pappenheim, Bayern, Germany
Maria's house is excellent and better than on pictures. It's very spacious, comfort and clean. It was warm at winter. All neccessary household appliances, including dishwasher, and others "must have" things are present. If you are considering this home, be sure you will be definitely satisfied. Way to Nuremberg takes just about 35 minutes as all the road from home to the city-center is high-speed and perfect. Big supermarket is just about 5 minutes by car. WiFi Internet is present, but not at all the places at house. Better to use 4G.Mihail2017-02-07T00:00:00Z
VERY GOOR HOUSE. VERY NICE PEOPLE. VERY CLEAN.Argiropoulou2017-02-18T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Höttingen, Bayern, Germany
We had a really nice stay in your beautifull appartement. A very clean house and your patents where very helpfull.Francis2015-07-08T00:00:00Z
Saskia was on holiday and her parents were there to give us the keys. Communication was fast and easy. On arrival all went well and we were left to enjoy the place very smoothly. The cottage is a fantastic place lost in the middle of nowhere, great for peace and rest which is what we wanted. Our only mistake was not to pack up mosquito repelent and I was quite fried so couldn't enjoy much of the outside space for this reason, but provided you are prepared, it is lush. Very local feeling, quirky and peaceful, love to sleep without hearing a thing from the outside. Had a great break. Do recommend.Cova2016-07-22T00:00:00Z
We stayed at the cottage about one week in June-July 2016. As a couple, we found it a fantastic place to relax and enjoy a peaceful environment. Our hosts were always available for any help/questions and welcomed us warmly on arrival. The cottage is fully equipped: the kitchen has a decent stove and very good oven, as well as everything you may need for cooking. The fridge is big enough and with freezer as well. The bathroom is perfect, with a very good shower. The bed is confortable and the living/dining area spacious and nicely furnished. There's a huge flat screen smart tv with satellite reception - which you do not often find in countryside holiday homes! Last but not least, the garden is pretty, quite big and has a nice view on the countryside. From the cottage you can easily reach most of the nearby attractions and explore the wonderful Franconia region, either by car/bike/walking. We would definitely recommend the place and Saskia as a host.Giuditta2016-07-05T00:00:00Z
The cottage in Altmuhltal is very charming and cosy! Completely furnished and with beautiful landscape views. Saskia was a good host, communication was easy. Thank you Saskia!Dayenne2015-08-03T00:00:00Z
The cottage has a very rustic feel and was beautifully decorated with every amenity required by a visitor. Saskia's mom showed us around the house and made us feel very welcome. The view from the cottage included a wind mill farm. It was overall a quiet and peaceful experience.priyanka2015-07-10T00:00:00Z
We had a very nice week at the 'Cosy cottage. We were received very kindly by the mother of Saskia who showed us around and made a nice cake for us. The house is nicely situated along the woods overlooking cornfields and forests. It is fully equipped and also has several outdoor seating areas where you can relax. The village Nennslingen is a beautiful village with modest facilities and some restaurants. The setting is beautiful, undulating landscape. Nennslingen lends itself well to make a trip to Nuremberg, Ingolstadt and Munich, but in the neighbourhood Weissenburg in Bayern is also worth seeing. There is in the house a well-maintained site map and many brochures with all important addresses and activities. We can anyone recommend staying wholeheartedly and thank the parents of Saskia warmly for their hospitality.Paul2016-08-07T00:00:00Z
A little cottage in the woods in Bavaria: small and simple, but good value for money. The hosts were friendly and helpful and gave us their home-produced honey. We had a great stay - there is a huge amount to see in the local area. And the local beer is very good! Mosquito repellent advised, as there are quite a lot of them at dusk!Giles 2016-08-28T00:00:00Z
Sehr schöne kleine Hütte, die super ausgestattet ist. Wir haben uns sehr wohl gefühlt trotz schlechtem Wetter, werde sicher noch einmal kommen! Die Gastgeber sind unkompliziert und sehr hilfsbereit und haben extra noch Feuerholz für uns organisiert...Christian2015-06-21T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Nennslingen, Bayern, Germany
The host canceled this reservation 2 days before arrival. This is an automated posting.Pawel2016-07-02T00:00:00Z
Great and very talkative host. You won't be bored for one second. Airbnb experience at it's finest.Lubomír2017-03-12T00:00:00Z
Unbelievable, very personal experience! Sylvia is an awesome host, she shares virtually everything. Rainer shares his passion for good food with his homegrown ingredients. This is AirBnB at its best! Love to come back...Götz2016-07-19T00:00:00Z
The warm, family atmosphere. Nice time in the evening. Very kind, open minded and welcoming people. A bit of Australia in Bavaria. Best airbnb ever.Piotr2017-01-22T00:00:00Z
Sylvia was super welcoming and nice.Līga2017-03-16T00:00:00Z
Hallo ihr Lieben! Vielen Dank für eure tolle Gastfreundschaft und die leckeren Abschiedsgeschenke :)Lucia2016-11-24T00:00:00Z
Wir wurden gut empfangen und hatten einen angenehmen Aufenthalt mit einem reichhaltigen Frühstück.Matthias2016-10-20T00:00:00Z
Nach Schwierigkeiten, in der Dunkelheit und bei viel Bewuchs das richtige Haus zu finden, hat Sylvias Familie meinen Mann freundlich empfangen. Das Zimmer war zweckmäßig und sauber, ebenso das gemeinsam genutzte Bad. Das Frühstück war sehr vielseitig und gut. Danke auch für den Honig, wir freuen uns darauf, ihn gemeinsam zu genießen. Insgesamt war mein Mann voll zufrieden, vielen Dank.Claudia2016-07-23T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Private room
Property Type
Petersaurach, Bayern, Germany
everything was very very good. we have arrived at 23:30. despite the late hour we were met by Petra parents. we were very welcomed. the lived at the second floor of the large house with the separate entrance. Rooms are very big and cosy. We felt like at home. I am very recommend it to everyone .Vlady2015-08-16T00:00:00Z
Apparment was very clean, beautiful and there was everything that we needed. There was plenty of space even for bigger family. Location is good for those travelling by car. We enjoyed our visitJussi2015-07-27T00:00:00Z
Es war super große und helle Wohnung in eine ruhige Lage. Alles war TIP TOP sauber -:) Die Wohnung hat alles was mann braucht. Empfang war auch nett. Volle Empfehlung Vielen Dank Petra und Familie -:)Kashif2015-05-26T00:00:00Z
Wenn es 5 Sterne zu vergeben wären würde ich 6 Sterne geben. Einfach super Wohnung mit allen was man braucht. Gastgeber super freundlich und die Umgebung sehenswert. Sehr zu empfehlen!!!Ralf2015-09-21T00:00:00Z
Schöne große Wohnung in absolut ruhiger Lage. Gerne empfehlen wir sie weiter. Es hat uns an nichts gefehlt. Wir kommen gerne wieder.Elke2015-06-08T00:00:00Z
Wir haben uns in der Ferienwohnung sehr wohl gefühlt. Sehr geräumig, gut eingerichtet und alles sehr schön sauber. Petras Eltern sind auch sehr nett und haben uns wertvolle Hinweise gegeben. Sehr empfehlenswert!Petra2015-06-26T00:00:00Z
Unterkunft entsprach exakt der Beschreibung und ist sehr schön. Es hat alles super funktioniert.Jonas2015-08-29T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Röttenbach, Bayern, Germany
Eine ganz wunderbare und herrlich gemütliche Wohnung in der Altstadt von Weißenburg! Alles ist fußnah zu erreichen. Die Wohnung ist hergerichtet mit viel Liebe zum Detail und das Wohlfühlen geschieht schnell und leicht. Daniel ist ein zuvorkommender und im höchsten Maße freundlicher Gastgeber. Sehr gern wieder an diesen Ort und in diese Wohnung!Martin2016-10-28T00:00:00Z
Ein Ambiente zum Wohlfühlen! Sehr geschmackvoll eingerichtet und einfach prima alles, würden wir sofort wieder machen. Unkompliziertes Einchecken sehr angenehmer VermieterCornelia2016-09-26T00:00:00Z
Die Unterkunft in Weissenburg war sehr schön, sauber und ruhig, trotzdem total zentral. Ich würde sie mit 4 Personen jederzeit wieder buchen. Für 6 Personen erscheint sie allerdings etwas klein, vor allem der Esstisch und die Sitzecke am Fernseher. Ansonsten sehr gemütlich. - Vielen Dank.Martin2016-08-23T00:00:00Z
Die 65qm fühlen sich wie 85qm an! Unglaublich was man mit durchdachter Innenarchitektur erreichen kann. Neben der prämierten Denkmalschutz-Renovierung war alles extrem sauber und komplett neu ausgestattet. Die Lage ist top und sogar für eine fünfköpfige Familie gemütlich nutzbar. Die Kinder konnten im Dachgeschoss wohnen und so auch einmal ungestört von den Eltern spielen. Ein großes Plus aus der Sicht einer Familie mit Baby sind die Kinderschutzstecker von Gera :) so konnte sich auch unser Kleinster nahezu frei bewegen. Das Bad war sauberer als bei uns daheim und da sind wir schon ziemlich penibel. Ein großes Plus auch an den stets verfügbaren und freundlichen Vermieter. Die Nachbarn sind auch sehr freundlich und die Gesamtlage nur zu empfehlen. Von hier aus können Unternehmungen in alle Richtungen geplant werden: ob Steinbruch und Jura-Museum nahe Eichstätt oder Brombachseer Sandstrand, wir konnten beides optimal nutzen. Ach ja: die Melodie der Türklingel animiert die Kinder früh aufzustehen!Timo2016-05-26T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Weißenburg in Bayern, Bayern, Germany
Die Übernachtung bei Petra und Familie war sehr erholsam; sehr ruhige, ländliche Lage. Zimmer ist ausreichend groß mit Sitzgelegenheit,kleinem Schreibtisch, Stuhl und Kleiderschrank. Die Kommunikation/Abstimmung vorab sehr gut.Konstantin2017-02-17T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Private room
Property Type
Windsbach, Bayern, Germany
We had a very pleasant stay and the place was perfect for our family gathering over Christmas. The house was clean, large and had everything you need. Our TV even stopped working on Christmas Day and Birgit had another one installed the following day. Perfect. One thing to note is that the pillows are very thin. If you are used to slightly fully Pillows then I would recommend taking your own. The town is lovely and there are two bakeries within walking distance as well as a local supermarket.Erin2014-12-28T00:00:00Z
The host canceled this reservation the day before arrival. This is an automated posting.Pamela2016-06-09T00:00:00Z
We've stayed during NY holidays. Everything was fine - fotos are exactly what is in reality. :) fairytale place in old city near by castle. Thank you to Birgit and Ralph for hospitality. :)Sergiu2014-01-02T00:00:00Z
The house was exactly as described . very clean kitchen. very nice people, lovely town. we would be happy to stay againBruce2015-03-10T00:00:00Z
Wonderful stay, we felt very welcomed! Place was big and perfect for our family with 3 kids. Wonderful kitchen!Stacy2015-09-14T00:00:00Z
The cutest little home ever. Just perfect.Maria2016-06-19T00:00:00Z
Host is kind and house is very clean. There are so many bed for family. It takes about 25 min to get a Nürnberg from house by car. Villeage is like a middle age of Europe such as antique castle gate. I want to go there again. Thanks.Cheonggi2016-05-17T00:00:00Z
Perfect place to stay , next door to a Resturant and near a bakery . We drove to the fair which was only 30 mins . Far more pleasant to stay in a lovely town and travel in . Birgit was great , met us with the keys and could not have been more helpfulKaren2014-03-29T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Abenberg, Bavaria, Germany
I did a short stay with my family when traveling to Austria at Eckard's place. Once again - very friendly and nice place. Clean and calm. Recommend!Andrei2016-01-04T00:00:00Z
Quiet and beautiful house in inner Germany. Really nice and friendly maried couple who made us fell as we were at home. 200% recommended.Carlos2015-09-26T00:00:00Z
Eckard was very polite and helpful. Appartment was comfortable. Thank you!Dovilė2016-07-13T00:00:00Z
I really enjoyed the stay even though it was just 1 night in transit. It really feels like I was a personal guest at the house. Having a nice breakfast was a bit unexpected and surprising. One advice for the guests - please check with airbnb map location of the house. Having trusted my gps navigation with street and house No made us walk around a bit. Overall really recommended.Martynas2016-07-08T00:00:00Z
Eckard was an impressive host - he met us at 01 AM and prepared a breakfast at 7 AM with fresh bread and handmade coffie. The facilities were shared with the owners, but that was fine - everything was clean and cozy. I will definitely stay with Eckard next time when travelling from Netherlands to Italy or Austria. Eckard, thank you very much!Andrei2015-12-11T00:00:00Z
My father stayed at Eckard's place during his business trip and he really enjoyed his stay there. The place was clean and the host was friendly and accommodating, and ready to answer any question about the region.S2016-09-16T00:00:00Z
Accommodation was very nice. Hosts plesant, also breakfast and cofe very tasty. I highly recommand.David2016-05-12T00:00:00Z
All positive reviews are true - Eckard is an amazing host! We enjoyed our stay! Thank you Eckard!Irina2016-07-24T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Private room
Property Type
Roth, Bayern, Germany
Beautifull, new and clean house with lots of space, and every thing you need. On a very nice quiet place.Gerard2017-02-17T00:00:00Z
We initially chose to stay at Christine and Thomas's cottage because of its perfect location for visiting nearby Nürnberg and Rothenburg, but once we arrived at this rustic yet luxurious home, we found the accommodation to be the highlight. From Christine's warm welcome, to the well-stocked kitchen and bathroom, to the quiet setting, this cottage made us feel like we were at home. I'm pretty sure my family got tired of me gazing around the cottage, sighing and saying, "I want to live here!" This place is a gem.Carla2016-05-19T00:00:00Z
The owner was very kind and flexible. The house is superb, located near the forest. Spacious house, very well-equipped, ideal for a whole family. We especially liked the wooden design and the terrace facing the woods.Janos2015-07-08T00:00:00Z
Amazing house in the nature! Everything you could wish for is there. Thank you for your hospitality!Tedje2015-07-26T00:00:00Z
My family and I love this house a lot, it was a hidden treasure for us during our trip to Prague, Frankfurt, Munich, Nuremberg and Roth etc. At first we stayed there because it was just 25min. driving distance to Nuremberg Exhibition Centre (Toy Fair at Nuremberg Messe). There's no traffic congestion on the highway, which seemed to us a better choice then staying in the downtown Nuremberg. I went there with my wife and 1-year-old baby, the host was nice to let us putting down the baggages and baby stroller etc. before check-in time, we then drove our car to the Castle in Roth which requires driving for about 10-15min. and enjoyed lunch in a small Italian Restaurant. On our return, we parked our car right in front of the entrance of the house with roof which was free-of-charge, it was nice because there's snow during those days. We could easily push our baby strollers and other stuffs directly into the entrance without walking up any ladder nor stair after visiting fair. With communication on Airbnb in advance with Thomas, he even setup a wooden baby bed for us, it was very important for parents with 12-month old baby! The house was very warm, cozy and modern, my wife loves the bathroom a lot because it was newly renovated like what you would get in a hotel room, but more spacious with bathtub and shower area. A little hippo toy was there when we entered, my baby loves the color and was so happy to gaze at the toy while taking a bath. *There's also a comfortable second toilet right after you enter the house, you then do not need to wait for the toilet if you are staying with your family or friend. I love the kitchen and living room most, it was clean, well equipped with oven, electronic stove, water boiler, refrigerator etc. At night, I mostly cooked for my family during those days. My wife loves Ceiling to floor windows with lots of sunshine flowing into the house. You could of course roll down the curtain to have your own Privacy. I highly recommend this house to those travelers who would love to relax/ exploration of nearby cities / business people for Exhibition / nature lovers/ escape. The house is also suitable for sports lover, the host prepared some leaflets there introducing the cycling and hiking activities nearby, it was a shame that we didn't have time to give it a try. My wife even thought that the rental cost of staying was not expensive at all with this quality of bathroom. I am sure everyone would love this house, we would definitely love to go there again in the future! Thanks to all the nice people from Appelt Family whom I haven't met.CHI2017-02-05T00:00:00Z
We felt very welcomed in Christine and Thomas's house. The waited for us till the night (11pm) and met us with the smile. In the house we found everything we could need and even more - we definitely felt like at home. Location is great - away from the city, still you can reach grocery shop by the bike (you get two of them there!) in 5 minutes. The house itself is super clean and super cozy. It is accessible with the wheelchair which was important for me as I and my fiance we are using one. Christine and Thomas did their best for us to feel comfortable. Thank you so much!Laima2015-08-07T00:00:00Z
Wow, what a wonderful, exceptionally beautiful place. From the moment you arrive, you'll be able to tell that CasaAppelt was built with one purpose in mind, to delight and exceed expectations. I grew up in the town of Roth and I would have never imagined to find such a great place hidden away at the outskirts. The hosts, Christine and Thomas are very friendly and make you feel right at home. Highlight include: - Free WiFi (New this year we had been told), very good connection - For purchase drinks (beer, lemonade, etc.) (very reasonable costs if you don't want to buy your own) - Local eggs (we didn't try this, but would have loved to had we had more time) - Free organic breakfast cereals - Toys for our 4 year old (there is a whole outdoor patio that has a slide and some other toys, kids will be well entertained here) - Books and lots of other small attention to detail items throughout - An absolute oasis of a location, tugged away from the main road with lots of walking, hiking and biking paths nearbyManuel2016-04-23T00:00:00Z
Christine and Thomas are very cheerful hosts . In this beautiful, wooden house placed in the forest you will find everything what is necessary to comfortable, peaceful and quite rest. Everything was clean, furthermore when you Wake up, you can see green grass, forest and chickens :) outsidethe window:) I recommend this place!!!!Lucas2016-03-16T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Roth, Bayern, Germany
Room Type
Entire home/flat
Property Type
Pappenheim, Bavaria, Germany
Meyer was a great host. We stayed 3 nights and love the apartment. He was very helpful and we would love to stay in his place again next time our visit to Germany. I would recommend him to anyone who needs accomodation in Nuremberg area.Ekrem2014-03-30T00:00:00Z
Our friend took part at Challenge Roth and we took that opportunity to have a little reunion, as we all live pretty far apart. Edeltraud's place was perfect, very clean, spacious and well equipped. Upon check-in, she gave me some good pointers on things to do and places to visit. It's a beautiful area, so well worth exploring, a car is highly recommended to have! Would definitely recommend to stay with Edeltraud!Angela2015-07-13T00:00:00Z
This was the perfect apartment for our visit to Rothenburg and Nuremburg. We were a group of 7 and rented two apartments. Both were exceptionally clean and suited us perfectly. I would definitely stay here again if we visit the area.Becki2014-11-29T00:00:00Z
Bernhard and Edeltraud offer extremely beautiful accommodation surrounded by peaceful Bavarian countryside. We were made to feel very welcome and the houses themselves cater to all needs. The houses are very well kept, are clean and very comfortable. A home away from home! A big thanks to our lovely hosts and hope to see you again very soon.Steven2016-02-14T00:00:00Z
Our family traveled together , all 7 of us! The Meyer family is very friendly and helpful.. They speak English. Since our German is not very good, it was very helpful. We stayed in two different areas, both would easily fit six (URL HIDDEN) place was a free standing home and the other an apartment. Both were very lovely, clean and well equipped . The location of this home is in an amazing little country village near to Nuremberg and Rothenburg. As a bonus there is a Gasthaus just a short walk from the house that has great food. We are hoping to come again. You will definitely enjoy your stay if you choose this place.Cheri2014-07-03T00:00:00Z
I did not get to meet the host due to being the last of our group to arrive but my mother in law meet them along with my daughter in law (who is German) and that was helpful. It was out in the country as described, my only complaint, as was the others in my party, was that in the description of their place it does not say that they are near a dairy/cow farm. The smell was not pleasant most of the time and due to the fact that this had been the hottest it has been in over 160 years we had to leave the windows open at night (no air conditioning).Annarae2015-08-16T00:00:00Z
Ed was a welcoming host. He greeted and sent us off on the first and last day. He is friendly and helpful. The supermarket he recommended offer good variety and amazing prices. It's only 5 minutes drive from the house. You will need a GPS as getting there and being a first time driver in Germany can be a bit confusing during dark winter hours.Daisy2016-10-22T00:00:00Z
The host canceled this reservation 19 days before arrival. This is an automated posting.Bruce2015-11-30T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Neuendettelsau, Bavaria, Germany
Nice home! Nicee peoples :) I stayed just one night but all the family was verry nice ! Thank you :)Nolwenn2017-02-20T00:00:00Z
Nadja's family was very nice and kind. They offered breakfast for me that was very good. The location might be a little bit far but it is a very nice and comfortable environment that is very relaxing for having a break. The house is perfect that it is very comfortable too. :)Brian2015-07-18T00:00:00Z
Very clean room set in a spacious, modern looking country house. On top of everything, hosts were wonderful: friendly, helpful and cordial. The breakfast was not included.Marco2016-04-11T00:00:00Z
It was very nice to meet Nadja, her Mom and their Dog. The room was perfect, clean, neat, with Wifi and bathroom close to the room. If I had to sleep in Roth for a few days again, I will definitly come back to their placeDominic Y.2016-06-15T00:00:00Z
Christine ,Nadja mather care about everything .lovely person with a lot of love.thanks for all.Ewa2016-08-26T00:00:00Z
I had a very comfortable night in this delightful house with lovely garden and neighbourhood. The owner did all she could to make my stay enjoyable. Great garden and surroundings!Paul2016-11-27T00:00:00Z
Nadja and her mother was really kind and nice! its a pleasure for me to stayed at her place. Everythings are perfect, the room itself was fully equipped and really nice. Unfortunately I had to leave earlier at that time. Hopefully I can come over to her place again someday! BramBramastyo2014-10-01T00:00:00Z
Nadja and her mother are offering a great place to rest. The house is a cozy place surrounded by beautiful sceneries and Bavarian nature. There is a short walk you have to manage to this destination, but it's totally worth it. The family is really friendly and we shared some nice moments and had great talks. I would even pay more to stay there again!Tobias2015-03-20T00:00:00Z
Room Type
Private room
Property Type
Roth, Bavaria, Germany
Room Type
Entire home/apt
Property Type
Unterschwaningen, Bavaria, Germany


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- More from News & Features
New Hampshire Cigar Shop Giving Away 10,000 Gallons of Gas
Jennings Brown
Posted: October 2, 2008
Imagine a birthday party where all the guests are treated to 23 cigars and a five-course Italian meal, some of the top cigar manufacturers are in attendance, the Rat Pack provides the entertainment, and one lucky person receives 10,000 gallons of gas.
It's not a party in aficionado's heaven—it's the Two Guys Smoke Shop 23rd anniversary celebration.
The New Hampshire cigar chain is going all out this year, giving away $10 gas cards with the purchase of selected boxes of cigars and throwing a gala party on November 19.
Sorry: Frank, Sammy and Dino won't actually be there, but a Rat Pack tribute group will perform. The cigar stars, however, are authentic. Guests will be able to mingle with Avo Uvezian, Jorge Padrón, Michael and Joe Chiusano of Cusano Cigars and other cigar notables. The evening will conclude with one guest receiving a tanker-ful of gas.
"We're going over the top this time because we want to show our customers how much we really love them and that we want to help them deal with the high price of gasoline while they enjoy our handmade cigars," said David Garofalo, founder of Two Guys.
The cigar shop chain has treated customers in the past with Harley-Davidson motorcycles, a Hummer H2 and all-expense-paid trips to cigar factories in the Dominican Republic. But this time it decided to help alleviate the pain at the pump. Garofalo figures 10,000 gallons of gas is enough to supply the average driver for 12 years.
The Two Guys Smoke Shop 23rd anniversary celebration will be held at DiBurro's Function Facility in Ward Hill, Massachusetts. Tickets for the event are $200.
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Refractive Surgery
What is the Premier Surgeon 300? Simply stated, the Premier Surgeon 300 is a list of premium refractive cataract surgeons the editors and publisher have identified as leading innovators in the field of refractive cataract surgery. These surgeons work to educate their colleagues, innovate by developing novel technologies and techniques to advance the premium practice or perform a high volume of premium refractive cataract surgery.
The editors and publisher used no magic formula or algorithm to develop the Premier Surgeon 300 list. Rather, we went with our collected knowledge and experience with these individuals. Admittedly, we know we missed other Premier Surgeons, but overall, we believe it is a good list. We plan to use this list as a way to encourage discussion. Do you want to join the discussion? If so, please reach out to us and share your ideas. Feel free to point out if you believe you or a colleague belongs on the list.
We intend the Premier Surgeon 300 to be a tool for kick-starting conversations and evolving the field of premium refractive cataract surgery. In future issues, we will share with you results of the surveys we conduct, video perspectives we gather and Round Table discussions we conduct with Premier Surgeon 300 members.
We look forward to your feedback. Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com.
Alan B. Aker, MD | Boca Raton, Florida
Eduardo C. Alfonso, MD | Miami, Florida
Quentin Allen, MD | Stuart, Florida
Robert J. Arleo, MD | Ithaca, New York
Penny A. Asbell, MD, MBA | New York, New York
Kerry K. Assil, MD | Beverly Hills, California
Richard M. Awdeh, MD | Miami, Florida
Brandon Ayers, MD | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Dimitri T. Azar, MD | Boston, Massachusetts
Richard F. Beatty, MD | Naples, Florida
Kenneth A. Beckman, MD | Westerville, Ohio
Paul J. Befanis, MD | Melbourne, Florida
John Bello, MD | Chicago, Illinois
John P. Berdahl, MD | Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Perry S. Binder, MD | San Diego, California
Bradley C. Black, MD | Jeffersonville, Indiana
Thomas S. Boland, MD | Scranton, Pennsylvania
Brian S. Boxer Wachler, MD | Beverly Hills, California
Jeffrey R. Brant, MD | Cartersville, Georgia
Michael B. Brenner, MD | Long Beach, California
Stephen F. Brint, MD | Metairie, Louisiana
Jason P. Brinton, MD | Orlando, Florida
Alan W. Brown, MD | Wilmington, North Carolina
David C. Brown, MD | Fort Myers, Florida
Reay H. Brown, MD | Atlanta, Georgia
Frank A. Bucci Jr., MD | Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania
Carlos Buznego, MD | Miami, Florida
Stephen S. Bylsma, MD | Santa Maria, California
Harvey Carter, MD | Dallas, Texas
D. Alan Chandler, MD | Richmond, Virginia
Daniel H. Chang, MD | Bakersfield, California
David F. Chang, MD | Los Altos, California
Arturo Chayet, MD | Tijuana, Mexico
Jonathan Christenbury, MD | Charlotte, North Carolina
Y. Ralph Chu, MD | Bloomington, Minnesota
Robert J. Cionni, MD | Salt Lake City, Utah
Tom M. Coffman, MD | Lake Worth, Florida
G. Richard Cohen, MD | Boca Raton, Florida
Michael Colvard, MD | Encino, California
Garry P. Condon, MD | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Alan S. Crandall, MD | Salt Lake City, Utah
William W. Culbertson, MD | Miami, Florida
Robert C. Cykiert, MD | New York, New York
Peter D'Arienzo, MD | Manhasset, New York
Jonathan M. Davidorf, MD | West Hills, California
James A. Davies, MD | Carlsbad, California
Elizabeth A. Davis, MD | Bloomington, Minnesota
James A. Davison, MD | Marshalltown, Iowa
Steven J. Dell, MD | Austin, Texas
John DeStafeno, MD | West Chester, Pennsylvania
Uday Devgan, MD | Los Angeles, California
Terence M. Devine, MD | Sayre, Pennsylvania
Steven H. Dewey, MD | Colorado Springs, Colorado
Deepinder K. Dhaliwal, MD | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
David Dillman, MD | Danville, Illinois
Jon G. Dishler, MD | Englewood, Colorado
John Doane, MD | Independence, Missouri
Kendall E. Donaldson, MD | Miami, Florida
Eric D. Donnenfeld, MD | Rockville Center, New York
Paul J. Dougherty, MD | Los Angeles, California
View past polls »
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Nullriver recently released an application to the App Store that will turn your iPhone 2.0 into a wireless modem. Unfortunately, the $10 application, called NetShare, didn't stay in the App Store for long. Apple or Nullriver still has to offer an explanation as to why NetShare was going in and out of the App Store for a few days, and now finally it is gone again–perhaps for good.
Although I don't have a 3G iPhone, I still wanted to test NetShare and see if it will work with EDGE and how fast will the connection be. Fortunately, there is still a way to install the software and test it on a first generation iPhone with an upgraded 2.0 firmware.
Step 1. Prepare Your iPhone to Run Modified ".ipa" Files
Follow my guide on my previous post on how to install and run modified .ipa files in your iPhone.
Step 2. Search for the NetShare.ipa File
Download and if necessary uncompress the modified NetShare.ipa file (Google it!).
Step 3. Install to iTunes
If the NetShare.ipa is a folder, open it, look for the NetShare file and drag it to the iTunes Application Library.
Step 4. Sync Your iPhone
Sync your iPhone to iTunes to install NetShare to your iPhone.
Step 5. Create a New Network
On your Mac, create a new network by clicking the Airport icon, and type something like "NetShare" with the default channel set to Automatic (11).
Step 6. Open System Preferences –> Network
Select "Airport" with the Network Name as "NetShare" and click on Advanced…
Step 7. Configure TCP/IP
On the TCP/IP tab, select "Using DHCP with manual address" and type in "192.168.10.2" on the IPv4 Address field.
Step 8. Configure Proxies
On the Proxies tab, select "SOCKS Proxy" and enter "192.168.10.1:1080" under the SOCKS Proxy Server field. Click OK and hit the Apply button.
Step 9. Configure Network on iPhone.
On the iPhone's Wi-Fi settings, select "NetShare" and hit the blue arrow on the right.
Configure the Static settings with IP Address as "192.168.10.1".
Step 10. Disable Sleep
From Settings –> General –> Auto-Lock, set it to "Never". This will prevent you from getting disconnected once you start using Wi-Fi or EDGE on your Mac via the iPhone.
Step 11. Open NetShare
Open NetShare on your iPhone. On your Mac, open Safari and try surfing on the Web.
Note: NetShare may have problems on Firefox 3.0 and above.
Step 12 (Optional): Using EDGE
If like me, you don't have 3G, you need to make sure your EDGE is enabled and working before using NetShare.
I tried connecting with EDGE using NetShare but the connection was extremely slow. I had to stop the speed test so as not to rack up unnecessary cell phone charges.
In essence, this test tells me that NetShare isn't useful for first generation iPhones. When I get a 3G iPhone, I will repeat the test, and if the connection speed is good enough for me, then I will consider buying NetShare from the App Store—if it will be available in the future. Otherwise, perhaps Nullriver will give it away for free in Cydia or Installer!


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[February 13, 2013]
Nokia announces Asha 310 with dual-sim, Wi-Fi [Gadgets Special] [Times of India]
(Times of India Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) NEW DELHI: Mobile phone maker Nokia expanded its line of low-end smartphones on Tuesday with the Asha 310. This new phone features a 3-inch touchscreen and comes with dual-sim capability and Wi-Fi access and is aimed to bolster the manufacturer's market share in developing markets.
The Finnish company said that the new Asha 310 will come with 20MB of internal storage and support 32GB microSD cards. Nokia has included a 2MP rear camera in the phone and the company claims that it offers talk-time of 17 hours. The Finnish manufacturer is offering 40 free EA games with the phone and has included apps like Xpress Browser, Nokia Maps, Facebook, Twitter and eBuddy. The device also features Nokia's Easy Swap technology to switch between sim cards.
Nokia has been losing market share to Samsung and Apple in the high-end smartphone market and is also struggling at the low end against growing competition from Chinese manufacturers. Nokia plans for the phone to be in stores in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Brazil this quarter at a price of $102.
Key specs: Display: 3-inch touchscreen with 400x240p resolution; Memory: 20MB internal storage, expandable up to 32GB via microSD card; Connectivity: Wi-Fi, 2G, Bluetooth 3.0 with A2DP; and Camera: 2MP rear camera (c) 2013 Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited
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Also found in: Dictionary, Thesaurus, Medical, Legal, Financial, Acronyms, Encyclopedia, Wikipedia.
down to a fine art
Learned, mastered, or understood perfectly, to the point of requiring little or no focus to do, recall, or accomplish. Make sure you practice these equations until you have them down to a fine art. I always get my routine down to a fine art so there won't be any room for error during the performance.
Art is long and life is short.
Prov. Works of art last much longer than human lives.; Life is too short to learn everything you need to know about a particular discipline. Alan: You ought to do something besides paint pictures in your spare time. Come out with us, have some fun. Bob: Having fun will not win me immortality. Only my paintings can do that. Art is long and life is short. I always feel a sense of awe when I look at the Babylonian statues in the art museum. They were made thousands of years ago. Art is long and life is short.
state of the art
using the most recent technology. (Hyphenated before nouns.) Our company's computer setup is strictly state of the art. This state-of-the-art radio is capable of filling the whole room with sound.
work of art
1. Lit. a piece of art. She purchased a lovely work of art for her living room.
2. . Fig. a good result of one's efforts. Your report was a real work of art. Very well done.
to a fine art
in a way that is based on highly developed skill This restaurant elevates the sandwich to a fine art.
have something down to a fine art(British, American & Australian) also have something off to a fine art (British & Australian)
to be able to do something very well, usually because you have been doing it for a long time He's got sandwich making down to a fine art.
state-of-the-art equipment and machines are the most modern and of the best quality available State-of-the-art computer graphics show how your kitchen could be transformed.
fine art
Something requiring highly developed techniques and skills, as in He's turned lying into a fine art, or The contractor excels in the fine art of demolition. This term alludes to the fine arts, such as music, painting, and sculpture, which require both skill and talent. It is now often used to describe anything that takes skill to do. [First half of 1800s]
state of the art
The highest level of development, very up-to-date, as in This new television set reflects the state of the art in screen technology. Despite including the word art, this term originated in technology, and its first recorded use appears in a 1910 book on the gas turbine. Today it is often used adjectivally, as in This is a state-of-the-art camera, and sometimes very loosely, as in That movie is state-of-the-art Woody Allen.


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The award distribution ceremony of Kerala State Film Awards 2015 kicked off at Palakkad district's Indira Gandhi Municipal Stadium at 5 pm on Saturday, October 15. The grand event witnesses the presence of the big names from political and entertainment fields in Kerala.
The event is being graced by Mammootty, Mohanlal, Innocent, Manju Warrier, Jayaram apart from the winners of the prestigious award. Sanal Kumar Sashidharan's Ozhivu Divasathe Kali has been selected as the best movie, while Dulquer Salmaan and Parvathy have been selected as the best actors for Charlie.
The actress has also been entitled for the award for blockbuster movie Ennu Ninte Moideen. Director Martin Prakkat's Charlie has won as many as eight awards followed by RS Vimal's romantic entertainer Ennu Ninte Moideen.
The other winners of the Kerala state film awards 2015 are Jayasurya, Joy Mathew, Joju George, Prem Prakash, Anjali Upasana, child artistes Gourav Menon, Janaki Menon, directors Martin Prakkat, Sreebala K Menon, cinematographer Jomon T John, scriptwriter Unni R, lyricist Rafeeq Ahamed, music director Ramesh Narayanan, Bijibal, singers Jayachandran , Madhusree Narayanan, Shreya Jayadeep, editor Manoj, art director Jayashree Lakshmi Narayanan, costume designer – Nissar, dubbing artists Sarath, Angel Shijoy and choreographer Sreejith, among many others.
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The following guidelines must be read prior to submitting your application to use Council land.
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Council can issue different types of agreements for use of Council land subject to the classification and proposed use of the land. Generally 3 types of agreements are used:
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Our partners help to provide meals to more than 46 million Americans each year. Learn more about our partners' work & how your business could get involved.
Essential individual, foundation and corporate partners work together with Feeding America to provide more food to more people in need.Learn more about our Food and Fund Partners ›
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Omni Hotels and Resorts' Say Goodnight to Hunger Campaign expects to raise more than 1 million dollars by donating to Feeding America for every direct booking on OmniHotels.com.
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