text:
"There is something in the New York air that makes sleep useless."
-Simone De Beauvoir
I'm not known as a big sleeper. I've been krolled (not to be confused with being trolled on Twitter) a few times during the due diligence process for different ownership/partnership stakes and positions, and "irregular hours" always comes up as a "flag."
Back when we started the firm in 2008, that's why I called this morning rant the Early Look. And so my amateur writing career began… with the promise of only one repeatable competitive differentiator: getting up early and writing to you at the top of the risk management morning.
Last night we hosted a small group dinner in NYC to talk about how everything has "bottomed." While the feedback (and fear) is that most don't want to "miss" the next move up, I couldn't sleep last night thinking that fear itself might just be the biggest #Bubble of them all.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
When someone uses the word "fear", it tends to have negative connotations. And, to be clear, I am thinking very negative things could happen if I am correct in calibrating that many got longer of #bubble exposures on the equity and junk bond market's most recent bounce.
Sure, they may have sold short indices and overpaid for volatility, protection, etc. in the heat of last week's melt-down, but they A) didn't sell all of their crashing small/mid cap equity exposures and/or B) their junkie "high-yield" positions either.
In risk management speak, in bear markets we call this cardinal sin "selling what you can, not what you should"… and while my calibration might be wrong, I can't see that in the market's futures/options positioning (which is getting longer of beta, not shorter).
To review where some of the hardest core #Bubbles are in this interconnected world:
- Central Planning
- Carry Trading
- Complacency
- Small Cap Illiquidity
- Fixed Income Junk
- Hedge Fund Levered Long Beta
To me, a lot of this is one and the same thing. And it really starts with the 1st #Bubble (Central Planning) because that's what drove macro markets to inheriting the mother of all interconnected risks (see exhibit 52 in the Q4 Macro Themes Deck) – the #Bubble in Spread Risk (see Chart of The Day):
- All-time Low in Spreads (Investment Grade over Treasuries)
- All-time low in Volatility (across asset classes)
- All-time high in Debt Outstanding (globally)
What's fascinating about this 3D risk picture is that almost every equity only PM we meet with agrees with it much more adamantly than any of my US stock market centric #bubble charts (like the one that has Russell 2000 at 55x earnings with low liquidity).
There's obviously confirmation bias in that, but reality is that unless you think it's different this time (almost every "the bottom is in" thesis has something to do with markets not being able to go down anymore), this is how The Waterfall of Spread Risk works:
- Global Growth continues to surprise to the downside
- US Long Bond Yields continue to fall in kind (mean reverting to what Japan and Germany's did)
- Both volatility and spread risk continue to break-out from their all-time lows
You see, the core differentiator in our call this year has always been fundamental – that growth slows and starts to get priced into expectations.
"So", instead of living in fear of your own performance and/or what the "other funds" did last week when the Russell was -15% from its July #bubble high, why don't I hear most people focusing on what was causal to the gap down in bond yields and equity markets to begin with?
You can lose sleep over what everyone else is doing, or you can focus on what you need to do to get the fundamental research right. And this early riser humbly submits that if you get the rate of change in growth and inflation right, you're going to get both bond yields and your exposures right.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.09-2.25%
WTI Oil 79.97-83.95
Gold 1
Best of luck out there,
This note was originally published at 8am on October 07, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.
"The Dollar is our currency, but it's your problem."
-U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally, 1971
When charged with getting up early and working against the clock to produce a daily strategy missive, sometimes you throw up some duds. You are, however, afforded the "exorbitant privilege" of serving as creator, curator and editor-in-chief of your own content.
With KM in London, alongside a general dearth of domestic economic data this week, we're afforded the opportunity to hit the Macro rand() button and survey some broader, top-down topography.
So, on with the binary dud or stud content creation....
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the French Finance Minister in 1960, coined the term "exorbitant privilege" in rebuking the U.S.'s ability to issue external liabilities (ie cheap treasury debt) at a discount to the global cost of capital while earning higher returns on foreign equity, debt and FDI holdings.
Simply, as venture capitalist to the world and sole beneficiary of dollar hegemony – we get to borrow low and lend high.
…and borrow we have.
Over the last 34 years, on our way to becoming the biggest debtor nation in history, we have borrowed some $10.4T, with an average annual deficit-to-GDP ratio of ~3.2%.
What does that mean exactly and what are the consequences of such a massive imbalance in the global flow of goods, services, income & assets?
In short, it means we've borrowed and/or sold accumulated wealth to finance consumption in excess of income – with the tailwinds of globalization and financial integration helping us do so in unprecedented magnitude.
To review:
The global flow of commerce and capital can appear complex and convoluted but, in large part, the same dynamics and constraints that drive spending and borrowing decisions for the individual or household apply to sovereigns as well.
If national expenditures (C+I+G) are greater than domestic output (GDP) – if spending is greater than income – that difference is financed by borrowing from abroad; either by direct issuance of debt or via dissaving and the selling of domestic and external assets.
A creditor/surplus country whose expenditures are less than its income lends that difference to a deficit country by buying the deficit country's debt/assets. From the opposite perspective, a debtor/deficit nation finances consumption expenditures in excess of income by selling assets or issuing debt to a surplus nation.
Such trade balances have important implications for national wealth because a country's net investment position with the rest of the world (ie. how many foreign assets a country owns vs. foreign claims on domestic assets) defines a nation's external wealth – and, in the (very) long run, it's a country's level of wealth plus its level of income (ie. GDP) that determines its long-run capacity to spend.
Since ~1980, the U.S. has incurred a persistently negative trade balance, financing current consumption by dissaving and borrowing from abroad.
Interestingly, however, U.S. external wealth has declined disproportionately less than the cumulative trade deficit. Indeed, we have been a net exporter of assets to the tune of ~$600B per year via the trade deficit but our external net wealth has declined only modestly, even risen significantly in many years.
How can a country increase its net wealth? Again, the same as an individual or household:
- Save more (ie. the trade balance: reduce/reverse the trade deficit)
- Be the beneficiary of gifts of assets (ie. the capital account: not really a factor for the U.S.)
- Benefit from capital gains (ie. high positive ROI on external assets)
For a country that is a net debtor, the singular path to earning positive net interest income is by receiving a higher rate of interest on its external assets than it pays on its liabilities.
For the U.S. a few primary factors have driven this:
- The US gets to borrow low: reserve currency, deepest/liquid market, risk-free rating, etc
- The US exports a significant amount of capital to foreign markets: EM and developing market risk premiums are higher but, longer-term, returns are better also. For the U.S., the benefit comes in the form of higher relative capital gains
- EM & Developing Countries borrow high and lend low: This is an oversimplification but it's broadly true. Cost of capital for EM and developing countries is comparably higher and, to the extent a higher proportion of investment capital flows to US/DM treasury debt (vs equity or FDI), the returns are comparably lower.
How do the above factors impact net external wealth and play to the benefit of the U.S.?
Here's the textbook equation for change in external wealth over a given period:
Change in External Wealth = Trade balance + interest paid/received on prior period external wealth + interest rate differential + capital gains
It's the two terms on the far right side of the equation that have provided an incremental net benefit to the United States and have underpinned her Exorbitant Privilege for nearly a century.
The data is somewhat mixed and open to debate, but the BEA estimates the US has been the beneficiary (due to the confluence of factors highlighted above) of a positive interest rate differential of ~1.5% and a positive capital gain differential of ~2% for the last 3 decades.
In other words, Exorbitant Privilege has provided an ~3.5% offset to the trade deficit.
In recent years, global central bank policies aimed a lowering interest rates and inflating financial asset prices have served to further perpetuate that privilege.
Indeed, recall the circular flow of QE mechanics:
The Treasury issues debt --> the Fed buys the debt --> the Treasury pays the Fed interest --> the Fed gives the money back to the Treasury.
In addition to directly lowering the cost of U.S. external liabilities via large scale asset purchases, remittances from the Fed – at ~$80B/yr and equivalent to ~35% of federal net interest expense – takes the effective cost of capital for the Treasury further towards 0%.
#FreeLunch…for now
Since 1450 the mean length of dominance for a particular global reserve currency = 94 years.
The current duration of reign in US dollar supremacy? Yup…94 years.
$USD correlation risk in markets currently is acute and for the investible future, the dollar will remain the Fx alpha male.
But alongside the fledgling internationalization of the renminbi and accumulating bilateral swap agreements across the BRIC and Asian axes, the anti-dollar coalition is ascendant.
The dollar is our currency, and the cost of cumulative excess afforded under a century of privilege will be our problem during its descendancy.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 2.38-2.49%
Brent Oil 91.18-95.16
To free lunches, perpetual short-termism and blissful ignorance,
Christian B. Drake
Macro Analyst
Hedgeye Statistics
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
Thursday's earnings report should shift attention to 2015 expectations, with the market likely to focus on backlog and preliminary 2015 revenue guidance. While we expect management to provide a very wide guidance range for the segments, we also expect 2015 EPS to eventually come in near or below 2014 EPS. Last year's initial 2014 revenue guidance took a significant bite out of both consensus sales and EPS estimates. CAT will be giving initial 2015 guidance following a period of weakness in key energy, mining, and construction end-markets. As a result, we think there is a heightened likelihood that 2015 estimates resume their march lower in the near-term.
Key Points
Wind Changing Directions? Dealer inventory builds, a short-lived surge in coal production, and Tier 4 pre-buy activity supported 1H 2014 results, but the environment going forward looks far less supportive. Commodity prices, particularly in iron ore, oil and gas, and coal are generally much lower than 1H 2014 or 2H 2013. Dealers are expected to reduce inventories in 2H 2014 at a similar painful pace to that of 2H 2013, with guidance for drawdowns of ~$1.6 bil vs. ~$1.3 bil in 2H 2013. Construction equipment demand may also have slowed, as preannouncements from TEX and MTW suggest. It is hard to see order rates improving sequentially, pointing to either weak revenues or, more likely, further draws on the order backlog into 2015.
Expect Wide Guidance Range: While we do not know where management will place 2015 revenue guidance, we do expect that guidance will provide plenty of flexibility. A wide guide would likely allow management to avoid another 2013-esque series of credibility damaging guidance cuts. CAT's markets have weakened in an increasingly uncertain global economy and recent growth concerns should provide a good pretext for incorporating 'wide-ness' into the 2015 outlook. Of course, a wide guidance range may be interpreted as the market as 'we don't know, but it doesn't look all that good', anyway.
Energy & Transportation Exposed: Increasingly, we expect the 'action' to shift into the Energy & Transportation (E&T) segment. Of course, mining capital spending has declined to more normal levels, and may worsen a bit given commodity price weakness and equipment pricing trends. Over time, we would look to the credit side of CAT for incremental interesting negatives in mining equipment. With oil prices near the lows of recent years and Tier 4 Final implementation in large engine in 2015, we expect to see pressure on E&T order rates and margins.
Tier 4F Beyond Locomotives: While gas compression is likely to remain robust, the other energy end-markets may be less so into 2015. CAT does not have a Tier 4 compliant US locomotive offering, and does not expect one, last we checked, until about 2017. Prime power gensets frequently go into off-grid applications like mining, oil production, rail, coal, steel, and agriculture. Reciprocating engine sales to other oil and gas applications, like rig engines, may also soften amid lower energy prices.
Source: Hedgeye Call with Jeff Leigh, Former Head of Finning Power Systems April 11, 2014
Our Expectations: We think a more reasonable 2015 EPS and E&T revenue expectation is at or below 2014. We expect an E&T downshift leading the decline on a softer energy market and Tier 4 Final implementation. We also see pricing in mining equipment continuing to weaken, with credit developing into a more relevant factor. Construction Industries may continue to perform on the top line, but faces record margin compares in 1H 2015. That doesn't sound to us like a recipe for the 5% ($55.1 bil to $57.8 bil) sales growth or 13% 2015 EPS growth ($6.26 for 2014 to $7.08) implied by consensus estimates.
Where We Could Be Wrong: CAT could have a larger cost reduction program than we currently expect. Share repurchases boost EPS, and large or numerous acquisitions can impact reported sales and EPS. Significant stimulus, particularly in China, could help re-inflate commodity prices. Dealer inventory changes can also be a bit of a wild card, and may help 2015 after years of mostly destocking.
Some Questions on the Quarter and Guidance
- What oil price is baked into the 2015 outlook? Crude oil prices may be down on the Saudi's trying to disrupt U.S. shale oil, or in an effort to pressure Russia over Ukraine, or steeply lower Chinese demand, or some combination of those factors, or none of those factors. In any case, 2015 end use demand by 'petroleum' has a less clear outlook than it did a few months ago.
- How much impact will Tier 4 Final have on E&T in 2015? Interestingly, the company took a pass on a version of this question in the last conference call, with the analyst confessing that he "should have sent it before". Staged conference calls aside, the T4F standards matter for other high horsepower engines beyond locomotives.
- Given the recent pressure in iron ore and coal, how are you managing the credit risk at CAT financial and are there any noteworthy trends? It seems widely expected now that many coal and iron ore miners will be forced to exit.
- What is happening with mining equipment pricing in the market today relative to what is being recognized from backlogged orders in revenue? Last we heard, pricing was slipping at a slow rate.
- How much of change in Construction Industries sales related to changes in dealer inventories (destock) vs. so-called end user demand? The company has been doing a much better job with the disclosures around dealer inventory changes. Destock may overstate end-market weakness.
TODAY'S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 21, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 105 points or 3.89% downside to 1830 and 1.63% upside to 1935.
- YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.84
- VIX closed at 18.57 1 day percent change of -15.55%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
- 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, Sept., est. 5.10m (prior 5.05m)
- 11:30am: U.S. to auction 4W bills
- 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories
- Senate, House out of session
- Sec. of State John Kerry travels to Berlin
- 10:30am: American Petroleum Institute media briefing
- 11am: Foreign Policy Initiative briefing call on Ebola policy
- 11:30am: Michael Lewis speaks at Mortgage Bankers Assn
- 12pm: Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., speaks at U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Legal Reform Summit
- 12:15pm: SEC examinations dir. Drew Bowden luncheon interview at Natl Society of Compliance Professionals conf.
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Comparing Sen. Models; Fundraising Reports
- Total CEO De Margerie Dies in Moscow Plane Crash
- Actavis Said to Bid for Omega Pharma Joining Sanofi, Perrigo
- AbbVie Scraps $52 Billion Shire Deal on U.S. Tax Changes
- Paulson Said to Urge Shire-Allergan Merger as AbbVie Talks End
- Apple's Forecast for Holiday Quarter Tops Analyst Estimates
- Texas Instruments Quarterly Profit Outlook Exceeds Estimates
- Staples Says It's Probing Potential Customer Credit-Card Breach
- Yahoo Said to Be in Talks to Buy BrightRoll: TechCrunch
- Tudor's Jones Said to See U.S. Stocks Beating Globe Rest of Year
- China's GDP Growth Bolsters Case for Stimulus Restraint
- Guardrail Maker's Faulty Secret Changes Cheated U.S. Government
- Pimco's Former Parent Pacific Life Switching Accounts to Janus
- FBI Warns of Hacks by Moonlighting Foreign Government Agents
- Dudley Warns Banks to Fix Culture or Be 'Dramatically Downsized'
- Allegheny Technologies (ATI) 7:30am, ($0.06)
- AO Smith (AOS) 7am, $0.57
- Apollo Education (APOL) 7:30am, $0.27
- Brinker Intl (EAT) 7:45am, $0.50
- Canadian Pacific Railway (CP CN) 7:30am, C$2.36 - Preview
- Carlisle Cos. (CSL) 6am, $1.22
- Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30am, $0.53 - Preview
- Graphic Packaging (GPK) 7:30am, $0.20
- Harley-Davidson (HOG) 7am, $0.59
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8am, $1.23
- Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 7:30am, $1.54
- Lexmark Intl (LXK) 6:30am, $0.91
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:25am, $2.72 - Preview
- Manpowergroup (MAN) 7:30am, $1.50
- McDonald's (MCD) 7:58am, $1.37 - Preview
- Omnicom Group (OMC) 7am, $0.90
- Pentair (PNR) 7am, $0.94
- Regions Financial (RF) 6am, $0.21
- Reynolds American (RAI) 6:58am, $0.91 - Preview
- Synovus Financial (SNV) 7:47am, $0.37
- Travelers (TRV) 6:57am, $2.26
- United Technologies (UTX) 6:59am, $1.81 - Preview
- Verizon Communications (VZ) 7:30am, $0.90 - Preview
- Waters (WAT) 7am, $1.29
- ACE (ACE) 4:05pm, $2.33
- Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.84
- Canadian Natl Railway (CNR CN) 4:01pm, C$1.05 - Preview
- Celestica (CLS CN) 4pm, $0.24
- Cree (CREE) 4:01pm, $0.34
- Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4pm, $0.08 - Preview
- Discover Finl Services (DFS) 4:05pm, $1.34
- E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) 4:05pm, $0.22
- FMC Technologies (FTI) 4:01pm, $0.74
- Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30pm, $0.20
- Interactive Brokers (IBKR) 4:01pm, $0.03
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $3.81 - Preview
- Nabors Industries (NBR) 5:30pm, $0.36
- Pinnacle Finl (PNFP) 5:15pm, $0.50
- Robert Half Intl (RHI) 4:02pm, $0.58
- Sonic (SONC) 4:01pm, $0.34
- VMware (VMW) 4:01pm, $0.83
- Waste Connections (WCN) 4:05pm, $0.55
- Yahoo! (YHOO) 4:05pm, $0.30 - Preview
- Codelco Puts Faith in China to Resolve Metal Collateral Case
- Gold Buying Rebounds in India as Diwali Sales Shine: Commodities
- Oil's Plunge Snares Nigeria Seeking to Defend Naira: Currencies
- Palm Oil Reserves in Indonesia Seen Shrinking Most in 19 Months
- Aluminum Rebounds as Copper Extends Gains in London Trading
- Brent Crude Rises as China's Growth Exceeds Estimates; WTI Gains
- China's 'Aggressive' Electric Car Ambitions to Boost Aluminum
- Soybeans Rise From 1-Week Low as Investors Assess Harvest Pace
- Rebar Drops to One-Week Low on China Economic Growth Concerns
- WTI Crude Seen Supported Near $75 a Barrel on Drop Below $80
- Arabica Extends Biggest Slump in Five Weeks as Sugar Declines
- Palm Growers Raised by Hong Leong to Neutral as Worst Seen Over
- Codelco Not Affected by China's Metal Collateral Case (Video)
- Codelco to Sell $8 Billion Bonds for Record Copper Mine Spending
The Hedgeye Macro Team
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Former President Nicolas Sarkozy has been found guilty of breaching the official limit on the cost of last spring's presidential campaign – threatening his party with bankruptcy.
France's election finance watchdog rejected Mr Sarkozy's expenses, alleging that he had used taxpayers' money to campaign for re-election before he officially entered the race in February. The Sarkozy campaign was also accused of an accountancy fiddle to transfer half the cost of a giant rally at Villepinte near Paris to the separate, parliamentary elections in June.
Mr Sarkozy will appeal. If he loses, his centre-right party, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), already deeply in debt and suffering internal schisms, would lose €11 million in state subsidies. Officials fear this could tip the UMP, France's largest party, into bankruptcy.
The watchdog's ruling – unprecedented for a major party in France – is deeply embarrassing for Mr Sarkozy. He already faces possible legal action for alleged illegal campaign fund-raising before he was elected president in 2007. This week a judicial investigation was also ordered into his alleged misuse of taxpayers' funds to finance private opinion polls for electoral purposes.
Although Mr Sarkozy, 57, announced his retirement from politics in May, friends hinted he would be delighted to be recalled as "France's saviour" before the 2017 election. A "conviction" for irregular campaign financing would hardly help his chances.
Mr Sarkozy received a warning letter at the Paris mansion that belongs to his wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy. The Commission des Comptes de Campagne et des Financements Politiques (CNCCFP) informed him it refused to approve his campaign expenses of €1,339,664.
The committee said that, by its calculations, the expenses failed to include the cost of several trips and speeches made by President Sarkozy before he declared his candidacy in February. Although declared to be part of the business of the state, the meetings were clearly electoral in intention, the committee decided.
The CNCCFP also objected to the fact that Mr Sarkozy had shifted half the cost of a campaign-launching meeting at Villepinte in February– to which 60,000 people were bused from all over France – to the accounts of the June parliamentary elections. The decision was justified by Mr Sarkozy by the fact that the UMP held a national council meeting in the wings of the rally to confirm the names of parliamentary candidates which were already, in effect, decided. The watchdog committee also queried the fact that the UMP had included only a small amount for private opinion polls – far less than the Socalist eventual winner, François Hollande. Under France's law on state financing of campaigns, a party which fights both rounds of a presidential election is entitled to a 47 per cent refund from the state if its costs do not exceed €22.5m. The watchdog committee calculates that, once all "real" expenditure is included, Mr Sarzkozy's campaign exceeded this limit by at least €2m.
Mr Sarkozy's campaign treasurer, Philipe Briand, annouced that he would appeal to the Conseil Constitutionnel, the supreme arbiter of state actions. As an ex-President, Mr Sarkozy sits on this body but will have to stand down when his own case is discussed.
UMP officials said they might also make a counter-claim by demanding the whole cost of the Socialist primary election should be included in President Hollande's campaign accounts.


text:
Photographer's Note
After a long time, we are once again in Russia. And the picture we have symbols of Soviet Russia. The main frame is a luxurious motiven Soviet prestige car Chaika GAZ 13 M. The car was produced between 1959 - 1981, a car powered eight-cylinder power of 144 kW. The car weighed 2100 kg and reached a speed of 160 km / h. The image was taken in St. Petersburg Strelka on the peninsula, which lies on the eastern edge of the island Vasiljevskij. On the right side of the picture you can see where it all happened - the Winter Palace. It is just across the river Neva.
bj40 has marked this note useful
Photo Information
- Copyright: Tomas Loew (TOMLEVMB) (1756)
- Genre: Places
- Medium: Color
- Date Taken: 2009-04-30
- Categories: Transportation
- Exposure: f/3.5, 1/800 seconds
- More Photo Info: view
- Photo Version: Original Version
- Date Submitted: 2011-05-12 14:38
Viewed: 7787
Points: 2


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I know, I know... this is starting to be odd. But since poking around for CSS themes, I have developed a sick fascination with them. ;-) Here's a modification of Aristotle's Perl-Blue theme. The monospace fonts are set small because I use ProFont Windows. Still, they should work pretty well. Comments welcome, of course. Most of the modification is with input fields: making them nice and wide for those of us using higher resolutions with programmer-tiny fonts. ;-) Also, I added some things to account for new PM features, like the ability to highlight sections placed in readmore tags. A nice separator for sigs is included, as well. In reply to Fun with Aristotle's Perl-Blue theme
by radiantmatrix


text:
KSAM 101.7 / Sutterfield Lane
by Larry Crippen on Jun 17, 2014
A major accident occurred this morning on Highway 75 North north of Sutterfield Lane. DPS Sergeant Stephen McNeil reports that the head-on collision resulted in two fatalities. Dead are 47-year-old Carise Ashworth, a female employee…
Posted in Local News, News


text:
Saint Paul Labor History Tour
From Placeography
Edit with form | |
Saint Paul Labor History Tour | |
| |
City/locality- State/province | Saint Paul, Minnesota |
County- State/province: | Ramsey County, Minnesota |
State/province: | Minnesota |
Country: | United States |
Tour Created by: | Work Day Minnesota |
Labor Unions have played an important role in St. Paul's history and development. This is a tour of historical places associated with the labor movement in St. Paul.[1]
Grayed-out photos mean the stucture has been demolished and is no longer present. The photo is only of the current site.
Download a PDF map of the sites created by Workday Minnesota 156k


text:
Free For All A place for thoughts and ideas that are out of place anywhere else. |
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04-21-2007, 08:16 PM | #1 (permalink) |
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tinting question
after you get the windows tinted, is it true that the bubbles will disappear after a few days?
i think i got burned. it's got a lifetime warranty but it looks like shit compared to the last time i got windows tinted on a car. |
04-22-2007, 08:19 AM | #4 (permalink) |
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nah..i don't think you're supposed to touch in for a few days afterwards. i'm afraid a credit card might rip the tint.
i paid this guy $210 for a complete outside/inside detail and tint job. the tint looks like shit, there are water spots all over the car, the engine isn't clean, there are still dirt spots in the door frames and inside my fog lights. i want to just go up there and knock that ****************** excuse the racism but god dammit every time i deal with black people i get burned. the next chance i have to go up there is tuesday so we'll see what i can get back out of this. i'd so love to go up there and just choke that mother fucker. could've job a 10x better job myself. Last edited by koshiva; 04-23-2007 at 04:01 AM. |
04-22-2007, 08:29 AM | #5 (permalink) |
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Id be pretty pissed if i just paid 210 bucks and my car now looked worse off then in the first place.
I'm interested in getting some tint. What's detailing all about? Ive seen ads around my school some guy put up saying he does it for 30 bucks. |
04-22-2007, 10:38 AM | #6 (permalink) | |
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^ how much is a decent tint full so you cant see in the car will a cop pull you over or anything cause its too dark? |
04-22-2007, 11:03 AM | #7 (permalink) | |
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The tint should NOT be bubbling whatsoever. Unless you rolled down the windows within a day of picking it up, it was most likely your african american buddy. Also, why didnt you complain while picking up your car? Makes the most sense instead of picking up the car, not saying anything, keeping it for a couple of days, and then showing up and saying its dirty. Basically, yeah dude you got ripped. You need to be careful who you take your car to. Remember you get what you pay for.
Champagne for my real friends, and real pain for my sham friends |
04-22-2007, 08:48 PM | #8 (permalink) |
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i was going to take my car to a different wash and have them clean it, but my dad thought of this one so i used it. and i was at work when my car was getting picked up by my dad.
it's just a bad deal all around.actually do you know any reputable car detailer or window tinters around here? you live in corpus don't you? yeah cops will pull you over if your tint is too dark on the front driver side and passenger side doors. 5% (limo) tint is the darkest you can get, but it's so dark that at night it's kinda hard to see out of it. |
04-23-2007, 12:00 AM | #11 (permalink) | |
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a good detail should leave your car in factory clean condition, no less You ain't getting that clean for $30 best you'd hope for is a wash, maybe a vacuum for that kind of money
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Probably bring it to him and he steals your stereo lolol |
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Try to load with a different cios. Or you could have a look at the blackscreen causes and solutions guide in the spoiler below.
hello i when try load adventures of tintin for usb loader dont load at all. all i get is black screen. please help thanks!!
Try to load with a different cios. Or you could have a look at the blackscreen causes and solutions guide in the spoiler below.
Click here for useful links
That game is problematic, similar to Driver SF. From everything I have read about it, there hasn't been a solution provided yet for usb loading. Some folks have reported getting it to partially work using d2x v7 and the latest version of GX, but still have freezing issues when loading a new level. Maybe you could try it and report back?
EDIT: More info... Some users have reported complete success in loading from backup disc if using darkcorp 1.1. This poses two separate issues: Wii's made since 2009 can't play backups from disc, and if you could you would have to install darkcorp...which isn't the best idea unless you know exactly what you are doing and have a nand backup via bootmii as boot2.
Last edited by cjizzle; 11-04-2011 at 07:19 PM. Reason: left out two words..lol
Good heads up cjizzle. I don't have that game so I didn't know. But I have read it plays fine if burnt to disc, but crashes from hdd.
I have also seen people got this to work from usb using Uneek +Di
I wouldn't suggest installing darkcorp, unless you have bootmii installed as boot2.
Last edited by playerkp420; 11-04-2011 at 07:01 PM.
Click here for useful links
By the way op. What modchip are you using?
me im not using a modchip
Oops wrong section.
Click here for useful links
Ok, I moved it, and notice the subtle difference in the name of the forum section.
any updates on this from the o p? would be interested to see as i'm having same problems. cheers.


text:
Trial record 10 of 12 for:
A Safety and Efficacy Study of Ispronicline (TC-1734-112) in Subjects With Age Associated Memory Impairment (AAMI)
This study has been completed.
Targacept Inc.
Information provided by:
Targacept Inc.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:
First received: April 28, 2005
Last updated: July 17, 2008
Last verified: July 2008
- Full Text View
- Tabular View
- No Study Results Posted
- Disclaimer
- How to Read a Study Record
The purpose of this Phase II study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ispronicline (TC-1734-112) compared to placebo (inactive substance pill) in patients with age associated memory impairment (AAMI). AAMI is characterized as cognitive impairment including memory loss and poor concentration associated with aging.
Condition | Intervention | Phase |
Age-Related Memory Disorders |
Drug: ispronicline (nicotinic acetylcholine receptor agonist) |
Phase 2 |
Study Type: | Interventional |
Study Design: | Allocation: Randomized Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment Masking: Double-Blind Primary Purpose: Treatment |
Official Title: | A Safety and Efficacy Study of TC-1734-112 in Subjects With Age Associated Memory Impairment (AAMI) |
Resource links provided by NLM:
MedlinePlus related topics:
Drug Information available for:
Acetylcholine chloride
U.S. FDA Resources
Further study details as provided by Targacept Inc.:
Primary Outcome Measures:
- To assess safety and tolerability of ispronicline vs. placebo in generally healthy elderly subjects with subjective and objective memory impairment meeting the generally accepted criteria for AAMI.
- To assess effect, on cognition, of ispronicline vs. placebo in generally healthy elderly subjects with subjective and objective memory impairment meeting the generally accepted criteria for AAMI.
Estimated Enrollment: | 174 |
Study Start Date: | January 2005 |
Estimated Study Completion Date: | October 2005 |
Ages Eligible for Study: | 50 Years to 80 Years (Adult, Senior) |
Sexes Eligible for Study: | All |
Accepts Healthy Volunteers: | Yes |
Inclusion Criteria:
- Male or female subjects aged 50-80 years.
- Lives with a significant other.
- Has subjective memory complaints. Verbal verification of this subjective memory complaint will be obtained from the significant other.
- Has no severe, uncontrolled medical condition.
- If receiving treatment for a medical condition, that treatment has been stable for at least 2 months before entering the trial and to remain stable throughout the trial.
Exclusion Criteria
- Aged less than 50 years or greater than 80 years.
- Lives alone.
- Has any medical condition not adequately controlled, or likely to interfere with performance of the study procedures.
- Medication for a medical condition has been changed in the last 2 months or during the trial.
- Administration of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and gingko biloba within 2 months prior to entering the study.
- Has evidence of depression or anxiety
- Meets DSM-IV criteria for Alzheimer's or vascular dementia.
- Has participated in an investigational drug trial in the previous 30 days.
Contacts and Locations
Choosing to participate in a study is an important personal decision. Talk with your doctor and family members or friends about deciding to join a study.
To learn more about this study, you or your doctor may contact the study research staff using the Contacts provided below.
For general information, see Learn About Clinical Studies.
Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00109564
Please refer to this study by its ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00109564
United States, Arizona | |
Pivotal Research Center | |
Mesa, Arizona, United States, 85210 | |
Pivotal Research Center | |
Peoria, Arizona, United States, 85381 | |
United States, Colorado | |
Radiant Research | |
Denver, Colorado, United States, 80212 | |
United States, Florida | |
Neuropsychiatric Research Center of SW Florida | |
Fort Meyers, Florida, United States, 33912 | |
Meridien Research | |
St. Petersberg, Florida, United States, 33709 | |
Meridien Research | |
Tampa, Florida, United States, 33609 | |
United States, Georgia | |
Northlake Medical Research Center | |
Decatur, Georgia, United States, 30033 | |
United States, Kentucky | |
Hartford Research | |
Florence, Kentucky, United States, 41042 | |
United States, Minnesota | |
Berman Center | |
Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States, 55404 | |
United States, Missouri | |
Radiant Research | |
St. Louis, Missouri, United States, 63141 | |
United States, North Carolina | |
Kulynych Research Center | |
Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, 27408 | |
Wake Forest University | |
Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States, 27157 | |
United States, Pennsylvania | |
Radiant Research Philadelphia | |
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States, 19115 | |
United States, Texas | |
Radiant Research | |
San Antonio, Texas, United States, 78229 | |
United States, Utah | |
Radiant Research | |
Salt Lake City, Utah, United States, 84107 |
Sponsors and Collaborators
Targacept Inc.
More Information
Additional Information:
Publications automatically indexed to this study by ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier (NCT Number):
Keywords provided by Targacept Inc.:
Additional relevant MeSH terms:
ClinicalTrials.gov processed this record on March 29, 2017
Additional Information:
Publications automatically indexed to this study by ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier (NCT Number):
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: | NCT00109564 History of Changes |
Other Study ID Numbers: |
Study First Received: | April 28, 2005 |
Last Updated: | July 17, 2008 |
Keywords provided by Targacept Inc.:
AAMI Memory Impairment Decline in Cognitive Function Age Associated Memory Impairment |
Additional relevant MeSH terms:
Memory Disorders Neurobehavioral Manifestations Neurologic Manifestations Nervous System Diseases Signs and Symptoms Acetylcholine Nicotinic Agonists |
Vasodilator Agents Cholinergic Agonists Cholinergic Agents Neurotransmitter Agents Molecular Mechanisms of Pharmacological Action Physiological Effects of Drugs |
ClinicalTrials.gov processed this record on March 29, 2017


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Working with Access Control Lists
To begin this study of ACLs, I'll take a quick look at the legacy Linux access control system. Normally in Linux, each filesystem object distinguishes between three different roles, which are called classes in POSIX terminology: the owner of the file (user), the group the file belongs to (group), and all other users (other). The owner specifies – for each of the three classes – whether the class can read, write to, or even execute the file. The familiar ls -l command displays these permissions as a cryptic list of letters:
-rw-r--r-- 1 alice ateam 5410 7. Feb 11:21 calendar.cal
In this case, alice is the owner and her group is called ateam. ls appreciates read, write, and execute commissions to their first letters: rread, write, and execute. Thus, for each class of users, a triplet of access permissions is used in rwx format. A dash (-) at any position means that the operation is forbidden.
Imagine an ACL as a piece of paper on which you jot a list of all other access permissions and the rights assigned to them. Linux staples the results onto the file and enforces the permissions on the list. In practice, Alice first checks which permissions are already assigned for her calendar. She uses getfacl to do so; the command outputs the ACL for a file. Because she has not yet added Bob, his list should be empty:
$ getfacl calendar.cal # file: calendar.cal # owner: alice # group: ateam user::rw- group::r-- other::r--
For a list that should really be empty, this has quite a few entries.
First, getfacl repeats the file name, the owner of the file, and the group in the first three lines. The following lines each contain exactly one entry from the ACL; this is aptly known as an Access Control Entry (ACE). To retain downward compatibility with legacy systems, the ACL automatically maps existing permissions to entries in the list – this explains the three following lines in the above example. The first line shows the owner's permissions, the second shows permissions for the group, and the third shows those for all other users.
The entries thus precisely match what ls -l told us. Because these entries exist in any ACL, they are referred to as the minimal ACL. As soon as an entry is added, this is referred to as an extended ACL.
Windows and ACLs
Windows, as of XP, and the NT operating system family also support ACLs, but only with the NTFS filesystem. Although access to NTFS on Linux is typically possible, Linux has only limited support for its extended functionality, which unfortunately includes ACLs.
At least Samba supports ACLs, assuming the underlying system has support for extended permissions. Files stored on the Samba server keep their permissions as if they were stored on a normal NTFS drive. One problem remains: Because the ACLs use by Windows and Linux differ, Samba currently gives Windows users only a part of the functionality they are used to.
Setting ACEs
To grant Bob access to the calendar, Alice needs to set another entry for this ACL. The setfacl tool takes care of this:
setfacl -m user:bob:rw- calendar.cal
The parameters only appear cryptic at first glance: the above command line creates a new entry (-m) in the ACL for the calendar.cal file. Access is granted to a single user called bob. Bob can read and write to the file, but he can't execute it (rw-). getfacl outputs the resulting list:
$ getfacl calendar.cal # file: calendar.cal # owner: alice # group: ateam user::rw- user:bob:rw- group::r-- mask::rw-- other::r--
Each entry in an ACL follows the same pattern, starting with the type, which specifies to whom the following permissions were applied. This can be a single user or a whole group. A label follows the colon. This designates the name of the user or group the entry belongs to. In cases in which you do not need this name, you can simply omit it – you can see an example of this in the entries for standard permissions. The line ends with the familiar triplet of permissions.
Setfacl Investigated
setfacl has the following useful parameters: -m modifies or creates a new entry,
setfacl -m user:bob:r-- calendar.cal
which is deleted by -x:
setfacl -x user:bob calendar.cal
This only removes the specified entry, but it does not affect the group that Bob belongs to. --set removes all previous entries, setting only the new ones:
setfacl --set user:bob:r-- calendar.cal
Finally, the -b option empties the complete list. Additionally, setting the recursive parameter -R tells setfacl to work its way through the whole directory tree. At the same time, you can even set multiple comma-separated permissions:
setfacl -m user:bob:r--, group:cteam:rw- calendar.cal
Instead of user and group names, you can alternatively specify the UIDs and GIDs; setfacl will also accept permissions in a numeric format.
A couple of abbreviations apply in setfacl. Instead of user, you can simply say u. In similar fashion, the abbreviations g(roup), m(ask), o(ther) and d(efault) exist. It is also possible to leave out multiple subsequent dashes, as long as the command is unambiguous:
setfacl -m u:bob:r- calendar.cal
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Thursday, March 26, 2009
Recommended Reading - Let us Prey, Globe and Mail
Sinclair Stewart wrote an irreverent piece for Toronto's Globe and Mail entitled, Let us Prey, Wall Street's recklessness has toppled the most exalted occupation in the land. Get Ready CEOs for a new job description. According to Stewart the celebrity CEO may be a dying breed. Judge for yourself, read the piece
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- the "e" (17)
- the dl (11)
- the eats (9)
- the happenings (9)
- the mishmash (20)
- the sights (8)
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Are You Cold Yet?
If you're from Michigan, you've probably heard one of your out-of-state friends say "Aren't you used to it?" The winters in Michigan are BRUTAL. How can you possibly get used to mountains and mountains of snow, and ten degree temperatures? The wind in Ann Arbor doesn't make it any better. And professors wonder why students don't come to class. Most of our school years in Michigan are consumed by snow and ice. You've probably seen helpless and defenseless students slipping all across campus. Not to sound depressing…but its not over yet. So bundle up, take your vitamin C, and get ready for about two more months of this Michigan winter. And cross your fingers that there are no blizzards in March.
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I had spent a good deal of my time looking for someone to explain this subject clearly and you're the only one that ever did that as well as I do a lot of research online on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say I'm glad I found your blog.
ReplyDelete- AnonymousJanuary 8, 2013 at 4:12 AM
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article even more! thanks!cheapest runescape gold, cheapest runescape gold for sale.
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To get your local stores Print Shop enter your surburb or postcode below.
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Canon EF 100mm f/2.0 USM Telephoto Lens
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Expert Reviews
By: Camera House Resident Photographer Submitted: 10 Nov 10, 5:48PM
Looking for a quality lens for portrait shots? The 100mm f2.0 lens features a large aperture and compact size making it ideal to tote around with you and the USM auto focuses the lens easily and quietly. Ideal for portrait and low light work it delivers a little bit of extra telephoto power for capturing candid shots. The first lens group moves for rear focusing. And sharp, crisp pictures are obtained at all apertures. Like Canon's 85mm lens, it's super-sharp (even wide open), and has fast USM autofocus along with fulltime manual focusing. Focal length and maximum aperture: 100 mm 1:2 Lens construction: 8 elements in 6 groups Diagonal angle of view: 24° Focus adjustment: Rear focusing system with USM Closest focusing distance: 0.9m / 3ft Filter size: 58mm
User Reviews


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Tasha Bergson-Michleson
Instructional and Programming Librarian
Castilleja School
Since 1995, Tasha has been exploring what makes for successful information literacy instruction in corporate, non-profit, subscription, and school libraries, and through aferschool programs and summer camps. Most recently, Tasha was the Search Educator at Google, where she wrote lesson plans, the Power Searching MOOCs, and - most importantly - collaborated with other librarians around the world. Tasha looks forward to advancing these conversations and collaborations with her peers in her new role as Instructional and Programming Librarian for Castilleja School.
Internet Librarian 2013
Monday October 28, 2013
11:15 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
E102: Research Is Not a Straight Line: Effectively Teaching Search
1:15 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.Wednesday October 30, 2013
11:30 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.


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Photos: SONY
In the new trailer for 'The Amazing Spider-Man 2′ Peter Parker looks out to the city he's taken the responsibility of protecting says to himself, "Every day I wake up knowing that the more people I try to save, the more enemies I will make." Spidey does has a number of enemies this time around, including some blue dude, his former best friend and those pesky teenage hormones.
This looks to be darker than the previous film, as most comic book movies tend to be. Peter receives a message from his father about OSCORP misusing his technology. The same corporation that had Spider-man under surveillance. It'll be interesting to see if this film avoids the same issue that 'Spider-Man 3′, and lots of other super hero sequels have, faced with there simply being too many villains. We've got The Green Goblin, Rhino, Electro and some mysterious figure who could be another member of The Sinister Six. Read the comics, people! There are enough easter eggs in the trailer to keep fans guessing about what the film has in store.
Directed by Marc Webb, 'The Amazing Spider-Man 2′ stars Andrew Garfield, Jamie Foxx, Paul Giamatti, Dane DeHaan, Emma Stone, Chris Cooper, Sally Field and Campbell Scott. It hits theaters on May 2.


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While I'm here, some advertising for a couple of plugins I wrote for wminput, the wiimote driver for linux.
wminput enables to connect a wiimote to your linux pc, and map wiimote actions to mouse and keyboard events.
I wrote plugins to play FPS games with the wiimote... more fun that accurate :)
Here is the source code, and how to get started.
Sunday, March 02, 2008
wiimote on linux: wminput
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- Wednesday, March 19, 2008 3:41:00 AM
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This is your resource to discuss support topics with your peers, and learn from each other.
10-05-2012 02:54 PM - edited 10-05-2012 04:02 PM
i have same problem after taking 9860 apart to replace the charging port which daughter managed to break, got new part soldiered on at a phone shop, put phone back to gether and was meet by a wtf has happened to the display. btw mr resident expert the only thing you seem to actually be an expert in is being sarcastic and demontrative to people that require help, it not helpful, funny or wanted.
Has anyone please found a cure for this problem yet! am about to throw a blackberry 9860 IN THE BIN!!!!
i have the same problem.. so frustrating.


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With Instructables you can share what you make with the world, and tap into an ever-growing community of creative experts.
Quick way to text message your love a heart! (this picture was made by me in Microsoft Word).
Cards are used to show the number of periods. Key in 5 periods, Then and underscore, Then 4 periods, Then underscore, Then 5 periods. ⇒ If you have T9 ...
Key 3 periods. then key a forward slash /. key 3 more periods. then key a back slash. key 3 more periods. then key a backslash. and yet ...
key 3 periods. key a back slash. key 9 periods. key a forward slash. key 3 periods.
key 5 periods. key a back slash. key 5 periods. key forward slash. key 5 periods.
key 7 periods. key a back slash. key 1 period. key a forward slash. key 7 more periods.
key in 8 periods. key in a V make sure the V is capital! key in 8 more periods.
Make it a little more personal by writing into the hear. Remember though that 2 period lengths is equal too only 1 letter. Here is an example, i ...
diy mobile jacketby sabu.dawdy
Valentine Heart Messageby gzumwalt
Valentine's Surprise From Junk & Scrapsby Gilly


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"Today there will be no wheelbarrows; money is created simply by entering keystrokes on a computer keyboard. Money created from nothing, from thin air, but that is how banks have always created it… ad infinitum by fractional, now fictional reserve banking, until there is so much it no longer has any value."
Incredible shrinking money » The Cobden Centre
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Incredible Shrinking Money
Posted by Ben Asa Rast at 7:39 AM
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A typo.
Just a fecking typo.
You know what?! The modern day terrorist will be a stock broker.
Compared to 75 years ago, Americans spend less on reading, alcohol, tobacco, clothing, and food. They spend more on education, entertainment, and transportation, but the real bank-breaker is how much more Americans spend on housing, even adjusted for inflation.
I'm at Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA today (I'm on staff) at the Positive Platform Design Jam, where we had Cornell historian Louis Hyman give a presentation called "Unnatural Capitalism: How the New Deal Reinvented Capitalism and Why We Need to Do It Again." You can watch a video recording of his […]
UC Irvine economist Peter Navarro, a hand-picked Trump economic advisor: "Navarro has never met Trump in person. And as for speaking with him by phone, he acknowledges, 'I have never had the pleasure.'"
The Raspberry Pi Foundation has done outstanding work packing a fully capable desktop computer into a package the size of a deck cards—especially one that only costs $35. But if you already have a working laptop, why should you care? Oh, how much you have to learn. Besides operating well as a compact digital media hub, […]
Custom coffee vessels are the perfect piece of office flair, but it's just a matter of time before your VOTE FOR PEDRO mug will start to lose its relevant wit. Why not have a new one every day, with whatever silly nonsense you want sticking off the sides? You can save big on your novelty […]
The Lightning port has thus far resisted the cruel fate that befell the headphone jack, and despite rumors that it may be disappearing come iPhone 8, for the present and foreseeable future, Lightning cables are a hot commodity for iPhone users. As such, we must make do in this strange time in which long, glorified […]
A typo.
Just a fecking typo.
You know what?! The modern day terrorist will be a stock broker.
will be?
"According to multiple sources, a trader entered a b for billion instead of an m for million in a trade possibly involving …. steaming turds
The curse of the Pudgy Finger.
…to obtain a special typing wand, please mash the keyboard with your palm, now.
beat me to it.
That may or may not have happened – but this did: "Selling accelerated late in the day due to a wave of automated sell orders that turned an ugly drop into a full-blown market washout."
I my experience, there is a lot to suggest that big traders use their knowledge of the existence of those automated stop loss orders to make "mistakes" like this all the time so as to give themselves great buying opportunities. In Canada no one regulates or guards against this (or any other stockmarket swindles when you get right down to it) but I don't know about the S.E.C. in the States. Statistical analysis probes should be an effective response but is there any will to use them?
SEC vigilance was proved with Madoff. I'm for ticker tape.
Wasn't this part of the plot of a Tom Clancy novel?
"Wasn't this part of the plot of a Tom Clancy novel?"
So… do-over?
Any lie to keep the teetering global economy from completely collapsing.
technology makes our life easier, until it takes over!
Boy, I'd love to be a fly on the wall when this guy's boss knocks on his door…and offers him a bonus.
Could be worse – if you're British, a "billion" may be three orders of magnitude larger than our American billion.
According to Wikipedia, there's no longer a difference between a British and American billion: "In 1974, the government of the UK switched to the short scale, a change that is reflected in its mass media and official usage. Although some residual usage of the long scale continues in the UK, the phrases British usage and American usage are no longer accurate nor helpful characterizations." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales
There have been worse…
So much for resilience in our financial system. Automated sell orders? Insanity.
Might be a good time to pick up a few solid stocks.
Algo trading, ftw
According to the experts, what happened today is really fucking weird. I recall when source code for Goldman's HFT system leaked they were claiming it could be used to manipulate the markets like this.
Looking @ the apple results for today on google finance, there was a sale for 216.04 on 216.04k shares volume. There was a lot of stuff happening today that didn't look 'real'.
Hey, at least he didn't type g for gajillion
Speaking of which, whatever happened to that idea to make "hella-" the next prefix for really large numbers? In the future, we could be losing money by the "hellions."
This is why you never just start tapping the 'y' button without reading all the prompts!
So how is Mr. Buttle, anyway?
I'm told he's down in Brazil. His fate depends on which version. ;D
OK, you get ready w/ the "billion order" and I'll swoop in on some collaterally damaged stocks. Isn't it great to live in such an advanced society?
Nadreck, having done index futures trading, I can fully agree with this assessment. I can't count how many times a stop-loss order was executed by the index simply dipping .25 below the stop-loss point and then jumping way up.
Think of it this way, if you are a large brokerage firm, you have access to all the data that covers everything that your customers are trading, where their stop-loss orders are set, where their buy orders are set, how much they're on margin (used to force a position closed), etc.
The market is a casino and the house always wins, except in this case, they also cheat.
Four words which scare me: Highly Intelligent Trader Bots. It's coming.
I know its out there because I heard its soul breathing on the wires.
-John Varley, Press Enter:
Excellent and creepy story.
I like the follow-up story from the Weekly Coitus on this. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice… wait, what was the question again? Here's the story: http://weeklycoitus.co.nz/?p=1214
Five out of your last six comments have linked to the same website. Please stop.
Ever seen a ball bounce? Check out this Wall Street Journal Chart of the DJIA over ten years, it defaults to 1 year – click on the 1 Decade icon top left scroll.
'm' instead of a 'b' my a**.
I've never seen a ball bounce like that.
My point is that the market is correcting down despite every effort to prop it up, I think by the fall of '10 the 'ball' will bounce to the low in '09. Elliot Wave theory says these trends happen in three's. So by 2011 expect a global depression.
User error, my ass!
If this had been a genuine liquidation panic, trading volume (as in the 2008 crash) would have gone through the roof. In fact, during the precipitous midday plunge, trading volume on most stocks was non-existent.
Take a look at the intra-day chart of Procter & Gamble (PG on NYSE). Astonishingly, volume disappeared during the crash and at one point during the trading session, this eminently stable company lost roughly 35% of its market capitalisation!
Clearly some very large players orchestrated this selling panic via derivatives, and when stocks got whacked, these crooks scooped up bargains in one of the biggest heists in financial history!
I like the market manipulation angle. Here's an interesting pice from "American Everyman" blog:
"Was Yesterday's Stock Market "Glitch†Really Big Banking Blackmail?"
Sorry. Lesson learned.
Just an FYI — there are no "B" and "M" keys for order entries on trading desks (other than the regular keyboard keys).
The most you have is an automatic "000" key
No one actually types out "Sell one million three hundred and forty five thousand shares."
That would be 5 keys instead: 1 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 000.
Besides, even if somebody accidentally sold 1 – 000 – 000 – 000 instead of 1 – 000 – 000, it should not have sent the market down 1,000 points.
This was more likely a combination of several other factors — High Frequency Trading plus a glitch, plus general market fears, The Dow was already down over 300 points when the collapse and snapback happened.
Im sure that Bin Laden had "hellions" in stocks here in the US.
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