text:
Data Entry Services:
Strengthening volumes of data is a general concern in a mounting firm. The setbacks due to the processing of data can also influence customer fulfillment leading to a loss of customers, which could have a negative long-term consequence on revenues and development. Our Data Entry Services consist of
Data Conversion
E-Publishing Conversion
Data Extraction, Tabulation and Analysis
Data Transcription
Data Translation
Online Data Entry and Remote Verification
Ad Posting & Online Business Promotions
Real Estate Promotion
Data Entry
Web Content Writing:
At GB Infotec, we create optimized content that is customer responsive as well as search engine friendly and we explore any topic for you and then write content that is targeted, simple to understand and follow. Excellent content constantly convey the excellent quantity of traffic to your website, no matter what type of business you are endorsing on market, you need the support of adequately written contents. We mainly focus on
Website Content Writing
SEO Writing
Technical Writing
Copy Writing
Blog Writing
Social Media Writing
Resume Writing
Enterprise Solutions:
Enterprise Solutions is importance for an enterprise not just by influencing technology but also by helping drive business - through finest business processes, assisting staged operation across worldwide operations to exploit reimbursement and help to handle risk. Our Enterprise Solutions include:
Managed Solutions
Data Connectivity
Voice Solution
Data Center Services
Conferencing Services
Cloud Solutions
Internet Leased Line
Global MPLS
PRI Solutions
Call Center Solutions
Toll Free Services
Looking for best in class business development ideas, call GB Infotec call-9900001638
Post# A501941 · Posted by:
classified jaipur
Welcome to Classified needs. Your source of free online classified ads in India. You can find ads regarding sale, purchase, rentals, travel and servic
Classifieds Script at Rs9999
If interested to start your own classifieds website at an affordable price. Then buy the best classifieds script available in the web market from www.
Business Strategy Consulting Firms India
BMGI India, a well known strategy consulting firm facilitate its clients with rich business strategy consulting by providing them strong strategy plan
Classified selling is a way of advertising, could be notably everyday within for sale ads together with other publications. The classified advertis
business opportunities for offline data entry project
data conversion please mail me your contact no and email address.
Contact this User
It is NOT ok to contact this poster with commercial interests.
- Reply to
- (Not Shown)


text:
Junior NEWS
General NEWS
Junior Calendar
General Calendar
Junior Honours
General Honours
Junior Games
General Games
Welcome to junior chess. This site is here to help all chess players aged under 18. If you are looking for a jargon free guide to junior chess, the Introduction might interest you. The clubs section has a guide to local clubs that encourage junior players.
29 Nov.
Final scores and places from the 2016 Staffordshire Junior Championships held on Sunday 20 November 2016 are now available.
17 Nov.
Schools and clubs interested in being part of the 2017 UK Chess Challenge should note that you have until 16 December 2016 to enrole.
Last year, 48,200 children from 1,200 schools and clubs took part. There has been concern recently over whether the UK Chess Challenge would continue. Sarah Hegarty, who first won the tournament herself in 1996 and went on to win the 2013 British Ladies title, has taken over the running and organising of the competition.
Entry forms for the first stage of 2017 are available and can be obtained from the competition website.
16 Oct.
For players who were under 18 on 1 September 2016 the Staffordshire junior chess championship will be held at Hassell school, Newcastle-under-Lyme on Sunday 20 November.
Those taking part should play six games of chess during the day and will have have 30 minutes for all moves in each game. The first games begin at 9.30 and winners prizes will be presented at 5 pm.
Age groups are under 7 (year 2 and below), under 8, under 9, under 10, under 11, under 12, under 14, under 16 and under 18. As far as practical players will only play against opponents from the age group they compete in. There should be prizes for everyone who scores at least half a point during the day.
It will be held at:
Hassell primary school,
Barracks Road,
Newcastle under Lyme,
This championship is also a county teams qualifier so eligible players who do their best here might be invited to be part of the Staffordshire junior team.
Traci Whitfield and I would like you to take part. If you decide to do so, please complete and return the entry form by Thursday 17 November.
Details and entry forms
Please contact:
Traci Whitfield and
Andrew Davies
Top of Page

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Hotels in Spearman
Search Spearman Hotels
Get Secret Prices on selected hotels
These prices aren't available to everyone.
Trending now in Spearman
- Most bookedBaymont Inn and Suites Perryton
14 people looked at this hotel in the last hour
Most recent review
"Spacious quiet room with easy access to restaurants & activities."
A Traveller, Nov 2016, US
- Holiday Inn Express & Suites PerrytonNo Guest Reviews yet
12 people looked at this hotel in the last hour
11 people looked at this hotel in the last hour
Most recent review
"Got to see family I hadn't seen in a long time. The hotel was in a convenient location. Nice neat clean. Room was large enough you could have family and friends over to just enjoy."
A Traveller, Nov 2016, US
Best Spearman Hotels
Our 5 most booked Spearman hotels from the last hour are:
1. Baymont Inn and Suites Perryton
2. Best Western Perryton Inn
3. Holiday Inn Express & Suites Perryton
4. &TravellersChoice4
5. &TravellersChoice5
But, low prices and a great selection are not the only thing Hotels.com offers. We also have 0 genuine Hotels.com guest reviews for Spearman.
Why use Hotels.com to book your Spearman accommodation?
We can help you to find the perfect Spearman hotel room for almost any occasion. With our fast and secure hotel search you may compare different Spearman hotels by:
- - Price
- - Availability
- - Spearman neighbourhoods
- - Nearby Spearman attractions and landmarks
- - 0 genuine Hotels.com guest reviews for Spearman
- - Star rating
- - Amenities
- - Hotel name & chain
- - Theme
Alternatively, you can use our detailed Spearman maps showing hotel locations in Spearman, using all the filters listed above.
Cheap Spearman hotels - getting the best deal
On Hotels.com you can always be sure you're getting the best deal.
We make it easy to save money on every booking. We offer our Price Guarantee on most bookings. Plus we offer 3 more ways to save:
1. Hotels.com Rewards - Collect 10 nights, get 1 free*
2. Hotels.com Deals - Search over 10,000 deals!
3. Hotels.com voucher codes - All our official promo and discount codes in one place.


text:
Afghanistan Operation Southern Beast
British soldiers of 3rd Battalion The Parachute Regiment take a break whist searching for insurgents after a dawn assault on a compound as part of Operation 'Southern Beast'. Kandahar Province, Afghanistan on the 6th of August 2008.
- Filename
- AFG-080806-JPHPS111.jpg
- Copyright
- Jason P. Howe 2008
- Image Size
- 3504x2336 / 2.0MB
- Contained in galleries


text:
tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99597762017-02-20T19:20:53.342+00:00James' Empty BlogIf I have seen further than others, it is by treading on the toes of giantsJames Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-33829349544970762462017-02-18T10:24:00.000+00:002017-02-18T10:24:03.410+00:00[jules' pics] Skipton
Blogging while drinking coffee, on another foggy morning in Settle.

When in Japan we liked to boast about the high humidity. My Dad was unimpressed, pointing out that British humidity is often well over 100% -when it is foggy. Our Japanese friends didn't seem to understand the concept of ground level cloud, and I wondered if this explained the low-level cloud problems in MIROC climate model. After a couple of dodgy experiences recently, I have decided that fog, spectacles, and mountain biking (or fell running) are a dangerous cocktail, but the internets told me that contact lenses now cater to most types of eyesight. So, on Thursday I headed to Skipton, our local megalopolis. As well as hosting about 5 opticians, there are too many charity shops to count, a Poundland(!), and the rest of the town is occupied by coffee shops. Oh, and a canal.

Appointment at 8:30am, the day started at "Bean Loved".

Optician appointment completed and two hours until the train home it was time to count coffee beans, all within about 3 minutes walk... not very exciting pictures, but photographic evidence is required...

TripAdvisor suggests I only found about half of them - perhaps the others are down side-streets - and I didn't even start on the tea shops, as that's a whole other world (although they also sell coffee, of course).

A little further away, but worth the extra 2 minutes walk is the one we call the Upcycled Bean - because it has foolishly upcycled decor... it is actually the cafe attached to Coffee Care, a coffee supplier...

And finally, the Canal!!!

To be fair, there are other shops in Skipton, but you have to seek them out. We have had good fish and chips, bought a good bed, and I even found a fabric shop (although it was mostly selling upholstery fabric).

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 2/18/2017 10:22:00 AMJames Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-30185367697212978972017-02-11T09:57:00.000+00:002017-02-11T09:57:59.390+00:00[jules' pics] BlackpoolBlackpool, located out on a pointless bump on the west coast of England, remained a little village until the Victorians invented tourism. Later on, tourists discovered that there are beaches in other countries that are warm and sunny, and Blackpool has been in relative decline ever since. However, despite being 50 miles away, it contains the local violin shop so all the violiners in Settle orchestra have to go there some time (my last visit to the shop was in about 1987 when Kevin had recently taken over the shopwork from his Dad.). We were kind of dreading having to spend a day there, but the violin and both bows needed a bit of work, so eventually we went this week. It was nothing like as bad as expected. In fact it was fun. All doors have a lot of locks on in Blackpool, but once we gained entry to the violin shop everything went very well. The violin jobs were done in a few hours, Starbucks was clean and shiny, the Chinese buffet lunch was very relaxing, and we pretty much bought up Poundland. And there were blue skies! It is a bit like San Francisco. Lots of ethnic restaurants, some tourist traps, trams, and a sea front, but the police cars are much prettier (we saw this beauty right away as the only car park that our van could get into was next to the police station - all the others have a 6'3" limit to stop people staying in camper vans instead of the local B&Bs).

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 2/11/2017 09:55:00 AMJames Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-7143502045316472822017-01-23T13:57:00.000+00:002017-01-23T15:37:15.487+00:00Pussy Cats
All Americans I've ever met and talked to about my pussies get very embarrassed. I've learned to say "kitties" instead. But, it turns out that these Americans have just been teasing me, and all along Americans have known full well what pussy cats are! I know I said it wasn't going to work, because it didn't work for BREXIT, but it turns out that pusscats are actually going to save the world.

 So, it seems like a good time to introduce the new ones:

Lola is a little black (so basically impossible to photograph inside in a Yorkshire winter) 7 month old kitten who is bright, loves games, and climbing, and is also very affectionate - curled up on my lap right now.

Esme is her slight;y larger sister, and is so pretty that she gets 2 pics. I'm not sure, but I suppose she could be a longhaired tortoiseshell and white, possibly dilute (i.e. she seems more cream and grey than ginger and black, but she still has a lot of kitten fur). She is a bit more timid than Lola and took a few days to settle in. She behaves like Lola, but as if she were wearing a pretty frock that she doesn't want to get dirty. She's quite long, and when she lies down she goes very flat and it is easy to mistake her for a scarf draped over the back of the sofa.

"which one is my tail!?"

And then there is Alphie, although we have been calling him Boris, because he behaves like a Boris and the rescue only called him Alphie due to his alpha-male characteristics. He's the reason we have got this little troupe; he was causing a bit of trouble at the rescue, but I said I wanted more than one cat (we have two laps, after all!). Boris loves banging his head on everything, including people, and he really puts his weight behind it ("clunk"). He's really fast when he plays, sometimes mowing down the kittens like little Japanese schools boys, but he seems to run out of energy quickly - I think he is a touch overweight. He's not super dominant, however, and seems to quite like the kittens, and since he doesn't push them away from the food bowl, I hope they will eat all the food and help him slim down a bit.

edit.

Oh dear, great minds think alike and I accidentally over-blogged poor James.

Disclaimer : NONE OF THESE CATS EAT TOAST!
juleshttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-50096771131852022362017-01-23T13:53:00.007+00:002017-01-23T13:53:58.521+00:00Is the Food Standards Agency fit for purpose?
Fans of Betteridge's Law will already know the answer....

This is about the latest food scare of course. Toast and "overcooked potatoes" which was later revealed to refer to roasted potatoes (and well-fried chips) are the supposed culprits this time. It's not the first time we've been warned about acrylamides, and probably won't be the last. It's all nonsense, sadly. The basic problem with the FSA approach is that it identifies and publicises chemicals as being likely to be a cancer causing agent, without any(*) consideration of the dose required. As David Spiegelhalter's excellent article explains, a typical human diet contains around 100th of the dose that has been observed to lead to a modest increase in the rate of tumours in animals. And despite all the studies that have been done, no-one has found any link between acrylamide and tumours in humans. But that doesn't stop the FSA generating scare stories about how we shouldn't toast bread properly, or roast our potatoes (I heard someone recommend 45 mins in a cool oven which would just produce soft greasy pallid lumps).

Incidentally, that article probably doesn't blow DS's horn sufficiently for people to realise how authoritative an expert he is. He is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge. When he writes about something, he's probably right.

Anyway, I'm going to keep on roasting.

* not strictly true as a careful reading of David Spiegelhalter's article reveals. But the margin of safety has to be astronomical, rather than merely huge, in order for them to discount it.

James Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-48766116534408184872017-01-11T14:30:00.000+00:002017-01-11T14:30:14.955+00:00BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: The AGU review 2016
We'd rather enjoyed our last trip to the AGU and had always hoped to go back some time but it's a long and expensive trip from the UK especially without having access to JAMSTEC's generous travel budget. Back in February, PEN had decided to propose a session at the AGU this year, and there was at least a strong hint that some financial support might be available to presenters. So we were mulling over the possibility of going back, when a few months later, both jules and I received separate invitations to present our work there in unrelated sessions. We've never both been invited to speak there in the same year, so this all seemed too good an opportunity to miss. We cleared our schedules (ha!) and arranged the trip, starting with a couple of months at NCAR.

My invitation was to a new session which covered betting, financial markets and insurance as it relates to climate change. At least, it was new to me, possibly something similar has been tried in the last few years. It didn't attract enough abstracts for a full session on its own, so was amalgamated with a long-standing session on climate model evaluation and interpretation. Jules was invited to a session on (paleo)-climate sensitivity, which also got folded into a larger session on cloud feedbacks.

We also submitted a poster to the PEN session on combining paleoclimate modelling and data, which focussed on our new attempt at reconstructing the last deglaciation. Interestingly, I found a presentation I gave back in 2009 at a different meeting proposing this idea (and an acronym – 21kaRP), but we had too many other things on our plates at that time and didn't pursue it further. It is much more timely now that PMIP is pursuing a coordinated experiment aimed at simulating this interval with state of the art GCMs.

<img alt="from window of Westin" class=" wp-image-1034 alignleft" data-attachment-id="1034" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"from window of Westin","created_timestamp":"1481973133","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.0016393442622951","title":"from window of Westin","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="from window of Westin" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=386&h=515?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=386&h=515?w=225" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=386&h=515" data-orig-size="1536,2048" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/from-window-of-westin/" height="515" sizes="(max-width: 386px) 100vw, 386px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=386&h=515" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=386&h=515 386w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=772&h=1030 772w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=113&h=150 113w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=225&h=300 225w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=768&h=1024 768w" width="386" />

As well as booking our favourite hotel (surprisingly good value through the AGU site, especially with two people to share the room costs) we spent a bit of time surfing tripadvisor for the best places to eat, which threw up a number of old favourites and a handful of new places to try. As a result of our research we didn't bother with lunch on the flight but instead headed straight to House of Nanking for sesame chicken after landing on Sunday afternoon, before heading off to registration to avoid the Monday morning queues.

We didn't find the schedule to be completely packed with must-see stuff, but there was enough to keep us interested most of the time. It's not really sustainable attending lectures non-stop from 8am to 6pm anyway, though the remnants of a bad cold meant we didn't have much energy for enjoying SF's sights and shops. We had a few meetings arranged to do outside of the AGU conference itself, which kept us busy in some of the quiet times and made the whole week that much more worthwhile.

Monday was a particularly thin day, so instead of attending lectures we focussed our attention on discussing some joint work with others for most of the afternoon and on to dinner. Tuesday was mostly data assimilation. I find it interesting to see people still pushing the boundaries of what is possible with ensembles and particle methods. One interesting question is how and why the particle filter and even ensemble Kalman filter can work so well, when they should both basically fail for the modest ensemble sizes which are practically achievable. There seems to be some debate as to how these results are best interpreted…

Wednesday was a busy day for me, with a poster first thing and then a talk later. Our poster on the deglaciation is here or perhaps here if the AGU site changes
<img alt="jda_agu" class=" size-full wp-image-1003 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1003" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="jda_agu" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="10800,7200" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/jda_agu-2/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

Unusually, the poster session was particularly well-attended and useful. I think this was a fluke of scheduling, as there wasn't much of a clash with anything except with Bette's Emiliani Lecture at 11:20am. So basically everyone who was interested in paleoclimate went to the posters around coffee time and stayed for an hour or so, before heading off to the lecture which was great.

It's available though the AGU on demand streaming service, which doesn't seem to have as much as in previous years, or perhaps I'm misremembering that. Anyway, several of the major lectures are available (the Schneider lecture by Battisti was another one that we attended), though not many of the normal short-talk sessions.

My talk (here as pdf) was late in the afternoon. Being shoehorned into someone else's session gave me some justification, I thought, in going beyond the narrow remit of my submitted abstract to talk a bit more generally about betting and betting markets. So I enjoyed a brief meander through a subset of the betting stories that have popped up in recent years. The AGU has gone widescreen (maybe years ago, but this is the first time we've bothered formatting for it) which is all very well but there was at least one room where a bit more attention could have been paid to ensuring that the image didn't extend beyond the white screen, clipping off figure captions and titles. We made sure our text wasn't too close to the edges and it wasn't a problem for us.

<img alt="usa-15" class=" wp-image-1153 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1153" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1481903098","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"40","shutter_speed":"0.033333333333333","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="usa-15" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=523&h=392?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=523&h=392?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=523&h=392" data-orig-size="2048,1536" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/the-agu-review-2016/usa-15/" height="392" sizes="(max-width: 523px) 100vw, 523px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=523&h=392" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=523&h=392 523w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=1046&h=784 1046w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=150&h=113 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=300&h=225 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=768&h=576 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-15.jpg?w=1024&h=768 1024w" width="523" />

A celebratory beer

On Thursday, jules (to whom I had, just in time, successfully passed my cold) gave her talk, which had also been agglomerated into a larger session. This was a repeat of the Pliomip sensitivity paper, nothing that exciting to those of us who knew about this work though a good chance to talk about it with a new audience who mostly knew about cloud feedbacks and modern data and had relatively little exposure to paleoclimate. It actually clashed with a rather similar talk in a different session which I went to instead, so I can't tell you how great it was For lunch we penetrated the AGU editors' lounge which serves much larger lunches than the EGU equivalent. The pretext for this free lunch was to discuss using paleoclimate to estimate climate sensitivity with some colleagues at least one of whom is, we hope, an AGU editor of some sort. We finished off the day with a dinner at Scala's anyway, where I had a very good ribeye steak.

By Friday we were a bit tired, and there was nothing that great on. We went to learn a bit about renewable energy which was quite fun, but it petered out towards the end. Didn't have energy to go out for dinner so Pearl's deluxe burgers had the honour of a second visit in the week. We also had plans for Saturday morning so weren't really on for a late night.

<img alt="usa-14" class=" wp-image-1092 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1092" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1481655461","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"400","shutter_speed":"0.066666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="usa-14" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=500&h=667?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=500&h=667?w=225" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=500&h=667" data-orig-size="1536,2048" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/the-agu-review-2016/usa-14/" height="667" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=500&h=667" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=500&h=667 500w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=1000&h=1334 1000w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=113&h=150 113w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=225&h=300 225w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/usa-14.jpg?w=768&h=1024 768w" width="500" />

A few years ago we entered the AGU fun run and were caught in a downpour, which wasn't actually all that much fun. Plus, the 7am Wednesday start time made it impossible to get back in time for the early session and we were particularly busy on Wednesday this year including the poster presentation first thing. Therefore we decided not to do it this time. I had however spotted that there was now a parkrun on Saturday mornings at Crissy Field (one of only a handful in the USA). So we booked an afternoon flight back to Denver, and planned to take part in this, at least provisionally depending on the weather and how we felt after a week of AGUing. As it turned out, after a fairly wet and drab week for the conference, Saturday morning dawned sunny and perfect, so we greatly enjoyed a quick trot up and down the shore with great views of the Golden Gate Bridge and all the rest of it.

<img alt="20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28" class="aligncenter wp-image-1165 size-large" data-attachment-id="1165" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1481965408","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.00071428571428571","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=700&h=525" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg" data-orig-size="2048,1536" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/the-agu-review-2016/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28/" height="525" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=700&h=525" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=700&h=525 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=1400&h=1050 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=150&h=113 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=300&h=225 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=768&h=576 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/20161217-2016-12-17-09-03-28.jpg?w=1024&h=768 1024w" width="700" />

By chance it was the 100th running of the event, so there was perhaps a larger than average turnout and even cake at the finish. So that was quite a treat to end the trip with. The return flight was then heavily delayed due to another snow storm in Denver, and when we finally got to Boulder we had to trudge back home from the bus stop late at night through several inches of snow with temperatures of -20C which was a bit of a shock to the system. I don't think I would much like to live in Boulder long-term, it's a struggle to go outside in those conditions though I suppose some must enjoy the skiing.

Next year the AGU will be in New Orleans, then Washington DC the year after, while the Moscone Centre is being renovated in some way. Doubt we'll be at either of them, but you never know.
James Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13830559731581302952016-12-31T15:26:00.003+00:002016-12-31T15:26:45.029+00:00BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Blueskies tour of the USA

The possibility of visiting NCAR has been at the back of our minds for some time, so when the rare honour of invitations to speak at the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco plopped into both of our inboxes around June, we swung into action. A couple of months at NCAR rounded off with an easy hop to SF seemed too good an opportunity to miss, so jules sent an email to Bette who leads the paleo group at NCAR to ask if she could host us. There was a bona-fide research reason for the visit, in that we are hoping to extend/supersede this work (and simultaneously improve on this reconstruction!) by blending together model simulations with proxy data records to create a complete reanalysis of the last deglaciation, 21ka to the present. There's a forthcoming PMIP-supported plan for GCMs to simulate this entire period (the main instigators being next door in Leeds is a happy coincidence), but this may take a couple of years to actually happen, as 21 thousand years of simulation is a huge task for complex models. However, Bette is ahead of the pack having done this a few years ago with a slightly lower resolution model, so our plan was to use her model output (among other things) to work out how to do it in the meantime.

<img alt="USA-7.jpg" class=" size-full wp-image-1059 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1059" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1481015418","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.00076923076923077","title":"Pano NCAR hill","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Pano NCAR hill" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,837" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/pano-ncar-hill/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-7.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

The view from (near) NCAR

Having started to arrange the visit, we then started fishing around for support and found out that NCAR (subsistence) and PEN (travel including AGU costs) were prepared to help us pay for the trip, for which we were and are very grateful. Then to top it off, another invitation arrived, for a workshop on "model dependence and sampling strategies in climate model ensemble prediction"…to be held at NCAR in early December, immediately prior to the AGU! I expect that the organiser Gab Abramowitz was really only inviting me out of politeness with no expectation that I'd fly there for a two day meeting at my own expense (they had no money for this) but of course we were now planning to be there so I was delighted to be able to accept. It then turned out that Reto Knutti was already at NCAR on a year's sabbatical, and a couple of his ex/current students who were working in this area and are now also supervised by Gab visited briefly en route to the AGU along with Gab.

We arrived in mid-October, though our luggage did not. Our departure from Leeds had been a bit disorganised, as the computer system there was down and all check-in/luggage drop had to be by done by hand. The resulting delay gave us a tighter than planned connection at Heathrow (including a terminal change) and therefore it wasn't a great surprise that our checked baggage with hand-written tags didn't turn up in Denver. So our first couple of days in Boulder were filled with emergency shopping (along with scrounging some free googlewear off our friend Rob who works there).

Fortunately all our stuff turned up over the following week, albeit in 3 separate deliveries all in the middle of the night which did nothing for the jet lag. Most of the luggage consisted of two travelling bicycles (S&S couplers) which we had used some 19 years previously on my first visit to Boulder. That didn't end so well – for us or the bikes (evidence) – when we met a Harley-Davidson on the wrong side of one of the twisty canyon roads, but fortunately there were no similar incidents this time around. Boulder is great for cycling around, being pretty much flat with a sunny dry climate and a wonderful network of bike/pedestrian paths many of which follow various creeks though and across town.
<img alt="pix-13" class=" size-full wp-image-991 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="991" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1477740873","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.0017241379310345","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pix-13" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,1536" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/pix-13/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-13.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

Boulder creek and its path

Our apartment was an easy distance for cycling (and sometimes running) to work, 6km direct (though with a 250m climb) with a range of longer options for more energetic days. NCAR also runs their own regular shuttle up to the lab and there's good public transport in Boulder, so we didn't plan to hire a car for our stay though thought we might do so for one or two weekend trips to the surrounding countryside and national parks. In fact in the end we forgot to pack our driving licenses so couldn't do this, which didn't turn out to be much of a hardship as there was enough to keep us busy in the vicinity of the town. Just outside the town, there are some huge hills to climb and some decent mountain biking.
<img alt="usa-6" class=" size-full wp-image-997 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="997" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1479996377","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.0005","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="usa-6" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,1536" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/usa-6/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-6.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

The indirect way to work…

<img alt="pix-24.jpg" class=" size-full wp-image-1062 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1062" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1478339834","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.00041666666666667","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pix-24" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,1365" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/pix-24/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-24.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

…and the really long way home!

NCAR is really well set up for visiting, there were several offices set aside for the use of visitors and we were up and running with ID cards and computers and internet access etc in a couple of hours on our first day, which would not likely have happened at JAMSTEC, or anywhere else we've been before. There's also a very good canteen which we made the most of, even including some breakfasts. NCAR seems to be on everyone's itinerary – there were many seminars from short-term visitors, and it was quite a surprise to bump into someone we knew from Bristol who was also passing through. So just being there was a good opportunity to meet with a range of people, though in fact our main work on the deglaciation turned out to be largely self-contained.

Snow usually appears around the middle of October in Boulder, but we were lucky to arrive during a particularly dry autumn and had a full month of warm sunny weather during which we made full use of Boulder's various leisure opportunities. We quickly bought some cheap old MTB tyres from Community Cycles and enjoyed visits to Dowdy Draw, the West Magnolia Drive trail area, and Marshall Mesa.

<img alt="pix-20" class=" size-full wp-image-1020 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1020" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1478169566","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.000625","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="pix-20" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,1365" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/pix-20/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/pix-20.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

Somewhere on the trails

We also climbed up most of the mountain roads – Magnolia Drive to Nederland, Flagstaff, through Jamestown to Rob's place and finally up and down Lee Hill Drive.

<img alt="ned-8" class=" size-full wp-image-1024 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1024" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"5.6","credit":"","camera":"DSC-RX100","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1478978155","copyright":"","focal_length":"15.45","iso":"125","shutter_speed":"0.001","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="ned-8" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="2048,1365" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/ned-8/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/ned-8.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

West Magnolia trails

I also found a few of the local running groups and went out for a couple of rather gentle Sunday morning runs with the Boulder Roadrunners and more challenging runs with the Boulder Track Club who seemed to consist of quick to super-fast runners. Luckily the runs were basically out and back routes so I could watch them all zoom off into the distance and after turning round a bit early they would all zoom past me on the way back too. jules and I together joined the Trailrunners for the first hour of one of their monster mountain marathon days. We just went up Flagstaff but most of the rest went all the way to Bear Peak and back, about 24 miles with a lot of climbing.

The work went well, though it's far from finished and so we don't have a lot to report yet. We presented this poster at the AGU which summarised our research so far:

<img alt="jda_agu" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1003" data-attachment-id="1003" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="jda_agu" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700?w=300" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="10800,7200" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/jda_agu-2/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=150 150w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=300 300w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=768 768w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/jda_agu.jpg?w=1024 1024w" />

In short, it looks like at a minimum the basic idea should succeed fine but it's a bit early to say anything about what the overall result will look like, and there are plenty of opportunities for improving on the very simple method we used. It will also be very helpful to get some more PMIP simulations but we may have to wait some time for these, so there's no great rush for the methodology but we will keep working on it as time allows.

Towards the end of our visit, just about when we were starting to get a bit bored with sitting in an office and working on the deglaciation, we had to shift gears to prepare not only for the AGU meeting but also for the workshop on climate model ensembles. In all we had 4 presentations to give on entirely unrelated topics in a bare week (me talking twice, jules once, and a joint poster).

I don't think anything from the workshop is available on the web (it was a rather small and informal affair) but there are plans to write some sort of review paper. There was no real breakthrough but there was hopefully some shared understanding of the different ideas that people have come up with. I've also got a month to revise this manuscript, and now have a significant improvement to put in to it. Although the new idea didn't arise directly at the meeting, having to give a presentation about it and field questions afterwards did provoke the inspiration.

By this time the snow had arrived, giving a very different feel to the daily commute. We didn't really have enough winter clothing and temperatures down to -20C (with a daily max of -10C) were a bit of a struggle, though it looked pretty when not actually snowing:

<img alt="usa-25" class=" size-full wp-image-1056 aligncenter" data-attachment-id="1056" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1482228790","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.00058823529411765","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="usa-25" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=700?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=700?w=225" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=700" data-orig-size="1536,2048" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/usa-25/" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=700" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=700 700w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=113 113w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=225 225w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-25.jpg?w=768 768w" />

A snowy ride

<img alt="from window of Westin" class=" wp-image-1034 alignleft" data-attachment-id="1034" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.2","credit":"","camera":"iPhone SE","caption":"from window of Westin","created_timestamp":"1481973133","copyright":"","focal_length":"4.15","iso":"25","shutter_speed":"0.0016393442622951","title":"from window of Westin","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="from window of Westin" data-large-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=305&h=407?w=700" data-medium-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=305&h=407?w=225" data-orig-file="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=305&h=407" data-orig-size="1536,2048" data-permalink="https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/blueskies-tour-of-the-usa/from-window-of-westin/" height="407" sizes="(max-width: 305px) 100vw, 305px" src="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=305&h=407" srcset="https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=305&h=407 305w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=610&h=814 610w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=113&h=150 113w, https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/usa-18.jpg?w=225&h=300 225w" width="305" />

Straight after the workshop we flew over to San Francisco for the AGU meeting, about which I'll write separately. For now you can make do with the view from our hotel window (on the one sunny morning we had).

We came back and had a couple of days in Boulder, just enough to empty our office and tidy up the apartment and pack all our stuff for the long haul back to the UK. No drama on that trip, and a bizarre lack of jet lag following our return, perhaps because it's so peaceful and dark at night here in Settle that there's really no excuse to stay awake.

While we were in the USA, it seemed like there was some sort of election going on. The result didn't go down well with most (perhaps all!) of the staff at NCAR. I hope the institute survives for other people to have as enjoyable and useful visits as we did!

James Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68857791254306788992016-12-07T03:04:00.003+00:002016-12-07T03:04:41.017+00:00It's colder in Boulder
Presently hunkered down at home awaiting the forthcoming -17C minimum temperature overnight, which is something I don't think I have experienced before. Possibly came close to it up a Japanese mountain once or twice. We've been very lucky with the weather for most of our trip, but it's certainly winter now!

At the start of December there is the annual "Colder Boulder" race, a counterpart to the "Bolder Boulder" in May that we've run a couple of times before. The December one is only 5k and has many fewer participants, allowing the event centre and finishing area to fit into an indoor arena which is probably a good idea given the season. In the event it was pretty comfortable, a bit chilly but bright and still. Biggest problem was the altitude, but the modest hills and numerous corners on the course also contributed to a slow run. Oh, and it was a good 100m too long too.

Taking account of these factors, I was reasonably satisfied to duck under 20 mins (by a whole second) and jules was also relatively fast at 26:05. In fact we were both the fastest in our respective age categories, thanks mainly to the organisers' decision to classify by year rather than the more usual decade (meaning there were only about 10 runners in each category). We are hoping to reap the benefits of the altitude training when we return to sea level shortly!
James Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-45052880116449433942016-11-27T18:19:00.001+00:002016-11-27T18:19:06.386+00:00"stop this ridiculous Brexit nonsense ever from happening"
How times have changed. It's hard to imagine anyone saying this on Any Questions 5 months ago and being met with strong applause. Is there finally some light at the end of the tunnel?
James Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43540362944856880702016-11-18T18:08:00.002+00:002016-11-18T18:08:46.743+00:00[jules' pics] Winter Wonderland
Yesterday it was cold, grey and snowing so we stayed at home a fought bitterly about climate sensitivity all day and then enjoyed the cultural experience of attending our Condominium Management Meeting. That was fun. Today it's back to business as usual, only the landscape has changed colour, and it is freezing cold outside instead of boiling hot.

NCAR

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/18/2016 06:08:00 PMJames Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51249682515080038862016-11-16T22:08:00.002+00:002016-11-16T22:08:39.577+00:00[jules' pics] The probably actually last day of summer
If the forecasts are correct then summer ends today. So, we took the morning off and did an MTB trail near Boulder, called Dirty Bismark.

It was a lovely ride and we finished it off by riding to the nearest pretentious cafe to NCAR where we enjoyed coffee and pastries. The only problem was that then we had to ride up the hill to NCAR, in the hot sun after already having done 2:30h of bone shaking cycling.

 Strava trace here.

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/16/2016 10:08:00 PMJames Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-65019029816613247142016-11-16T21:41:00.000+00:002016-11-16T21:41:24.136+00:00[jules' pics] Last days of summer
Summer isn't supposed to last this long in Boulder. Snow usually falls in October, but the first snow is expected tomorrow. Am very excited, as the temperature is max 26C today and expected to reach only 6C tomorrow. Anyway, forecasts seem to be easier in this part of the world, with tomorrow's precipitation already being predicted this time last week! So, to make the most of the dry weather, last Friday we cycled via Magnolia Drive to Nederland, stayed overnight in a luxury hotel, did a bit of mountain biking and then freewheeled down the hill home.

Naturally the adventure started at a pretentious Boulder cafe.

Packed lunch stop was near the top of the road section of Magnolia Drive

After which the views opened out

And the sky was very blue

Luxury hotel was the Boulder Creek Lodge, 1st of 1 hotel in Nederland!

Ate own weight in pizza

Mountain biking the next morning was tough on our rigid all-rounder bikes, while carrying overnight gear at even higher altitude than Boulder (2600m). But we made it round the West Magnolia loop and then had brunch at the conveniently located Sundance Cafe.

And then it was back down Magnolia Road (including just a couple of easy MTB trails).
 The reason I am looking so happy in this pic is that the Magnolia Drive ride has been a long time coming. Nineteen years ago we came to Boulder for a couple of weeks on the way back from a conference in San Francisco with the idea of doing some cycling. One ride that James had planned was the Magnolia Drive dirt road. But, unfortunately, we got knocked off our bicycles by a motorbike on one of our first rides, on our way back from Ward, and that was the end of the cycling for that trip, although we got to experience lots of other interesting Boulder things, like ambulances, dentists, surgeons, hospitals, state troopers and lawyers.

No problems with traffic on this ride...

Strava traces here and here.

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/16/2016 09:39:00 PMJames Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-2555253955278262442016-11-15T21:00:00.001+00:002016-11-15T21:00:29.518+00:00SuperMoonFor all the reader of this blog who was in cloud when the supermoon appeared.

It was super. Could see all the men, women and bunnies!

juleshttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-73081495565617607622016-11-11T04:21:00.000+00:002016-11-27T19:47:56.668+00:00Apocalypse now?
Lots of people have asked about this paper (which I think is open access).

To cut a long story short, it's not silly - the authors are entirely respectable and the work is interesting - but I don't think it is really that credible in terms of overturning established consensus. In fact it looks to me like they've gone astray in a few ways which add up to provide plenty of reasons for doubting the result.

The underlying idea is interesting enough and I have no problem with it in principle. They looked at climate change over multiple glacial cycles, to estimate not only the climate sensitivity, but also tease out how much this varies with temperature. Their observed temperature record comes from a handful of long-term proxy records of sea surface temperature, just 14 in total, which do not give very good global coverage. So they start by calibrating these records to a global mean temperature by comparing the local (proxy location) to global temperature at the last glacial maximum as simulated by models. The LGM temperature change arising from their 14 proxy records scaled to global temperature is about 5C colder than pre-industrial. This is a fair bit colder than the 4C we got with 400 data points over both ocean and land. But not content with this, they then average it with the mean of the PMIP model simulations, which is 6.5C colder than PI, thus getting a cooling of almost 6C.

Edit: Thanks to an email from Axel, I've had a more careful read and the above is wrong. One estimate is the PMIP models scaled to match data ("proxy-based"), another is their LOVECLIM simulation scaled to match a different data set ("model-based").

It is probably defensible to use the PMIP models in this way as some sort of independent estimate of the LGM state, but surely it is inconsistent to not then also use the PMIP models to estimate the cimate sensitivity and/or its nonlinearity. Anyway, this cold LGM state feeds through into a high sensitivity. An important additional factor here is the nonlinearity which they diagnose by comparing temperature to net forcing throughout the time series. I think a fair bit of this nonlinearity relates to the very high interglacials which are at best poorly calibrated since they only calibrated the proxy records to a fully glacial state. Interglacials have much smaller global temperature signal compared to the present, with the regional differences being much more important, and it seems doubtful whether a single scaling applied to these 14 proxy records could represent the true relationship with adequate precision for their purposes. In support of this, the last interglacial appears to have extremely high warmth in their calibrated proxy record of some 3C above pre-industrial, which I don't think is widely accepted. On the other hand, some nonlinearity is probably quite plausible, so let's press on. Using the "warm" sensitivity of 4.9C/doubling, they then generate a transient prediction, using a simple energy balance with the ocean heat uptake factor again taken directly from the CMIP models.

Disappointingly, their plot of the transient warming from 1880-2100 doesn't show the actual observations up to the present. It is hard to be precise from eyeballing a computer screen, but it looks to me that their new improved prediction is already way ahead of observations. It suggests a warming that first reaches 1C (relative to 1880) back in the early 1990s before Pinatubo, rebounding from that brief dip to reach about 1.5C by the present. HadCRUT4 shows rather less warming that this, with even the current extraordinary hot year (boosted by a strong El Nino) not reaching 1.2C on that anomaly scale. In my view failing to show, or discuss, this discrepancy is a major failing of the paper. If they think it can be explained by internal variability then they should have presented that discussion and I'm surprised the reviewers let them get away without it.

Edit: ok, here is a very quick and dirty attempt to show what their pic would have looked like with real temperatures on it:

Not a great graphic, I just scaled the hadcrut pic off here and tried to line it up with the authors' own axes, matching the baseline temps around the end of the 19th century. As anticipated, recent years are well below their prediction, with 2016 just about reaching the CMIP mean.

Edit: Axel claims that internal variability can explain this discrepancy, but I don't believe it. The magnitude of decadal-scale internal variability is about 0.1C (Watanabe et al 2014 and Dai et al 2015) and this new forecast would be even hotter if it wasn't also hugely overestimating the response to volcanoes.

So, in summary, nice try, but I don't believe it, and I don't really think the authors do either.

[Blog post title inspired by the Mark Lynas quote which is not the authors' fault. Incidentally, it is disappointing to see journalists falling for the parasitic publishing scam in which "one of the most respected academic journals" cashes in on its name by setting up numerous sister journals which share some elements of the name but neither the editorial policy nor barriers to entry. "Science advances" is not Science and it's only been around for a year or so, nowhere near long enough to have any sort of reputation. But if journalists don't know the difference, scientists will happily pay the steep publication charge and reap the publicity benefits. Nature have been doing this for a few years now (eg Nature Communications) so it's hardly surprising Science have followed suit.]
James Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-10631192768011308522016-11-09T18:54:00.001+00:002016-11-09T18:58:22.045+00:00Bigly and Brexit
I am Jack's complete lack of surprise, but at least we're trying to hit bottom. Late August 2015 I remarked to an American friend that if the US could elect Reagan in the 1980s then Trump could be elected in the 2010s. Unfortunately he laughed. But really it only hit home yesterday afternoon when I wrote to my Dad, "Let's hope that this time the Americans are less stupid than the British." I felt a deep sinking feeling that, for sure, Trump was going to win. Why? The Americans' one remaining small act of deference to the British, is to act just that little bit more stupid.

I wrote to someone a little while ago that if Brexit is the Apocalypse then Trump will be Armageddon. But I'm not so sure about that now. I'm hoping that this is the Dead Cat Bounce of the angry white man and that when such evil is exposed to the light of truth it will wither and die. Of course it is up to us to do the exposing to make sure that happens.

Some people are wittering about the death of democracy, but it is much worse than that - it is the death of reason (as in the Enlightenment) that actually matters.

Very amused by Trump's speech in which he promised to follow Japan's lead and use concrete to solve all the problems. What you do is borrow and print a lot of money, and use it to buy concrete and employ companies controlled by the yakuza to build things that you do not need. The results are ugly and bad for the environment, but jolly good for employment. And the US has so much more space than Japan, it could keep this up for practically ever! The less amusing part was Trump's "reaching out" to everyone and promising to be nice to everyone who is nice to him. In my experience, people who claim to be "reaching out" will consider any form of constructive criticism as a direct attack.

The internet suggests that pictures of cute cats are the answer, but I tried that for Brexit, and it didn't work. So, instead, here's some construction, which, curiously is occurring in extremely Democrat Boulder within currently Democrat Colorado... and of course it is happening for reasons of prosperity rather than politics. Not that this is necessarily the best thing either - I tend to think that if there is great growth somewhere, then somewhere else someone is being enslaved.

And is Bigly also going to become an actual word now that Brexit has become one?

juleshttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-55581067246672089552016-11-08T22:12:00.002+00:002016-11-08T22:12:55.412+00:00[jules' pics] Autumn in Boulder County
Normally when in foreign, one can send emails to other continents and not expect a reply for a day. Not so today - all the Britishes are still awake, but not just to send me emails. They are waiting to see if the USA takes our crown of most idiot electorate evs.

Had better supply some soothing pix.

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 11/08/2016 10:12:00 PMJames Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-79852474615991805592016-11-08T15:55:00.003+00:002016-11-08T15:57:07.041+00:00BrexitShambles?Did someone say BreakfastScrambles?

This is a Boulder Scramble. It contains Tofu!

And that is James with some eggs, potatoes and pancakes.

This is reason he is not getting fat: https://www.strava.com/activities/768025300 (for those who can't/won't click, that's 31km of running in the dust kicked up by some actually fast runners).juleshttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-64277331612322904392016-11-07T22:42:00.000+00:002016-11-08T15:57:35.397+00:00Brexishambles
So on Tuesday we will learn whether the USA is going to take the UK's crown as having the World's Most Stupid Electorate. Predictions are apparently quite close, with fivethirtyeight.com putting the odds around 2:1 at the time of writing. Colorado is a particularly close state, not that you'd know it from Boulder of course. I ran past a Trump poster on Sunday, and someone in the group I was with mentioned it was only the second one they had seen.

I've written about brexit before, and it's shocking to see how little progress has been made in the intervening 4+ months. Perhaps the most significant change is that brexit is now an official word in the Collins English dictionary, so I can use it without embarassment (I mean, without embarassment about the word - embarassment about the shambles itself is less easily cast aside).

Apart from that, we've got the unedifying and dangerous spectacle of those who called for the sovereignty of British Parliament, now denouncing this sovereignty as anti-democratic - and worse, labelling judges who upheld it with the chilling Nazi-era "Enemies of the people" slogan.

Great to see the Telegraph get in on the act too, patriotic poppy and all. And rather than supporting the independence of the judiciary, the govt response was to issue mealy-mouthed evasions about the importance of a free press. So much for the so-called Party of Law and Order.

It's blatantly obvious that the reason May doesn't want to reveal her cunning plan to parliament is that there is no plan. What is more puzzling is how those who are supposed to be among the brightest and best minds in the country haven't yet worked out the problem, which is quite simply that there is no "good brexit"; there is no sensible way though the process of cutting ourselves off from our largest trading partners and source of much-needed labour. Yet the Three Brexiteers are still blethering on with their idiot fantasies about how we can pick and choose exactly what we want from the EU27, and they will just roll over and accept it. Economics isn't everything and no doubt there are quite a number of xenophobes who would think a recession is a price well worth paying to reduce the number of young europeans coming here, studying in our universities and/or working and paying taxes. What's more troublesome from my own point of view is the growth of anti-rational populism fed by deliberately malicious and dishonest politicians and the media.

Of course the question is not even whether brexit is a good idea or not. Brexit isn't an idea at all, it's an incoherent mishmash of contradictory ideas, connected only in that they involve some change from the status quo. The vote for brexit is the logical equivalent of voting to go out for dinner - we might all agree that my cooking isn't great but if one person thinks they've been promised a curry, another is wanting to go to a French restaurant and a third is expecting fish and chips - and all have been promised that it will be completely free, in fact they'll be paid to eat it - then there is likely to be disappointment and disagreement as a result. As the chant goes: "What do we want? Well if you didn't know why did you vote leave?" At least, that's how it should go.

Jules says (quite rightly) that I shouldn't just criticise without coming up with a solution. What would I do? Well, nothing has change my previous opinion that the only reasonable solution is to abandon the process. This will take a lot of backtracking now that May has backed herself into a corner so firmly, but the reality of the situation is that there is no plausible brexit that will actually satisfy the British public, and all options for change are substantially worse than the status quo in basically all aspects. Will this actually happen? I don't know, the betting odds give about 70% probability to article 50 being invoked next year, 30% probability to 2018 or later or not at all.

Still, at least we can all rely on the BBC to do its patriotic duty and bend over backwards when some reactionary bigot demands that they play the national anthem at every opportunity:

James Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-42937325341203453452016-11-02T22:02:00.002+00:002016-11-02T22:02:52.964+00:00More Breakfast Success
As I've said before, although maybe not on this blog, the only actual difference between peoples the world over is what they eat for breakfast. In the USA a lot of different things are available for breakfast, because the population of the USA is almost entirely immigrant, and from all different parts of the world. On Sunday, James had something with beans in and I had something called "Dill eggs". Still don't really know what that was,. But it was delicious.

Sampled the NCAR cafeteria breakfast this morning. Although most of the elements seemed familiar, it was a cultural minefield. I thought an egg on toast might be nice. It turned out that the scrambled eggs were an omelette, the fried eggs came in 3 choices none of which I understood, there were about six varieties of toast to choose from rattled off to quickly for me to catch them all, and also something called biscuits that looked like a scone to me. But of course being well versed in inter-cultural quick thinking of a gastronomic nature, I made a success of breakfast and ended up with an egg "over-easy" (don't know what that means but it was cooked freshly to order!) with sour dough toast and butter. yum yum. I ate it too fast to take a picture.
juleshttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-4265932759379281542016-10-31T20:07:00.000+00:002016-10-31T20:07:31.930+00:00No Comment

"On Saturday 8th October Cartmel Quakers held a silent prayer vigil in Grange-over-Sands as part of the national Climate Coalition 'Speak Up' Week of Action"

James Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85810197265043162792016-10-31T01:41:00.000+00:002016-10-31T01:41:16.499+00:00Making a success of BREakfastThere are of course many opinions as to what constitutes a successful BREXIT breakfast, but the USA has really found the key factor, which is to make it available until 3pm. Some might say it really isn't breakfast at all...

juleshttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-32453326742612351322016-10-26T18:06:00.000+01:002016-10-26T18:06:57.549+01:00[jules' pics] BlueSkies, GreenTrees, YellowGrassThe BlueSkiesResearch is going awfully well.

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 10/26/2016 06:05:00 PMJames Annanhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13273144129302093692016-10-18T17:01:00.002+01:002016-11-01T22:24:55.520+00:00Where in Google Map?
Think I've done this before a few times. The pic is perhaps a bit less obvious than it might have been, but still there are no prizes for guessing where we are (again), preparing to do a bit of Blue Skies Research:

The more important question, for which a prize is definitely appropriate is...where is our luggage? At Leeds Airport the sheep powering the treadmill had gone on strike so all computers were down and our baggage tags were written down by hand. That added to the delay on the flight down to Heathrow topped off with terminal change there left us not too surprised when nothing came off the carousel at Denver. Of course this had to be the one trip where we didn't get round to putting a bit of emergency clothing in our carry-on bags...but luckily our friend Rob managed to score some free Googlewear for us. One bag containing most of a bicycle has appeared so far (via a disgruntled courier hammering on our door at 4:30 am) but no signs of the other two bags with another bicycle and all our clothes...

James Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62544676853519049652016-09-30T16:30:00.000+01:002016-09-30T16:30:05.130+01:00[jules' pics] via Dent
Ever since we moved to Settle 2 years ago we have been meaning to cycle to somewhere, via Dent. Last time we visited Dent by bicycle was probably the mid 1990s, and all I really remember is a heron flying alongside us down the narrow valley in the cloud and rain. These days we like to think we don't have to do the ride in the rain, which is probably why it has taken to long to get around to it. Here's the trace on Strava.

First Ribblesdale to Ribblehead viaduct.

Then up and down to Dent viaduct.

All the tea shops shut in Dent so brushed the dust off our feet and carried on to Kirkby Lonsdale via Barbondale

After a delicious luncheon, back to Settle via nowhere in particular.

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 9/30/2016 03:06:00 PMJames Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-83068231226548307482016-09-30T14:53:00.002+01:002016-09-30T14:53:40.278+01:00[jules' pics] Via Berkshire
Uncle In Law expects to see pictures of our recent visit down south. Problem is I was really in transit from the Holiday Inn Express at Munich Airport where I'd attended an exciting and somewhat sleepless (aeroplanes are noisy!) meeting so wasn't really concentrating on picture taking.

The inside of one of the many churches in Wallingford was atmospheric.

But apart from that all I really have are some portraits of the locals

--
Posted By Blogger to jules' pics at 9/30/2016 02:53:00 PMJames Annanhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-64048358844439463952016-09-26T20:10:00.001+01:002016-09-26T20:10:36.542+01:00Yikes!Could be painful... This has been updated!

Maybe not important enough for a skin graft ... yet ... but one can't help but look forward with some trepidation as to how pre-150ka may change!

cf

Lisiecki, L. E., and M. E. Raymo (2005), A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic d18O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003, doi:10.1029/2004PA001071.

cf

 Lisiecki, L. E., and J. V. Stern (2016), Regional and global benthic δ18O stacks for the last glacial cycle, Paleoceanography, 31, doi:10.1002/2016PA003002.
juleshttp://firstname.lastname@example.com


text:
The game's opening and ending themes both will be performed by the popular Japanese girl band Mi. The opening theme carries the title "World's Love", while the ending theme is titled "Same Sky".Shining Force EXA will be available in Japan sometime this winter.
The Blackwell Legacy Sunday, Feb. 19 • 10am PST/1pm EST
Shining Force Every Tuesday • 11am PST/2pm EST
Tales of Symphonia Every Wednesday • 4pm PST/7pm EST
Valkyria Chronicles Every Thursday • 5pm PST/8pm EST


text: 000 FXUS63 KIND 192020 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weakening cold front is expected to move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. A stronger low pressure system may affect the area towards the later parts of the week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Dry weather expected tonight as surface ridge drifts off to the east. Synoptic pattern favorable for the development of low clouds/fog again later tonight, given a light gradient and the potential for residual moisture to get trapped under a shallow low level inversion. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look reasonable for the most part, so any adjustments will be minor. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Lingering fog early Monday morning should burn off by the mid to late morning hours Monday. Model data suggest a short wave trough will push through the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday, dragging a weakening cold front through the local area. Appears there may a decent amount of lift, albeit rather narrow, for a precipitation threat late Monday night into Tuesday morning over the northern zones. Will go with PoPs starting Monday night and continuing through early Tuesday evening to cover the passage of this system, with the highest PoPs coinciding with the best lift. Some weak elevated instability may be associated with this feature as well, but convective parameters not very impressive at this point. Will go with a dry forecast by Wednesday as upper flow becomes zonal in the wake of short wave trough, and weak surface high pressure develops over the area. Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Monday may be on the cool side. Will nudge the guidance highs up a bit in that period. The remainder of the periods look OK for now. && .LONG TERM.../Wednesday night Through Sunday/... Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2017 The highlights of the long term will be warm weather for the remainder of next week with a return to seasonable temperatures by Saturday. In addition, unsettled weather is on tap late week with strong storms possible Friday. Models are having temporal and spacial issues with a potent system that will be developing over the Rockies midweek and lifting northeast across the Plains and then Great Lakes late week and into the weekend. Thus, confidence in timing amd coverage of looming convection is not great and will accept the Superblend which has the highest pops Friday afternoon and evening and is dry by Saturday. Prior to that, a front will drop southeast over the area before lifting back to the north Thursday and Thursday night. Superblend output has small pops over all or parts of the area by Wednesday night. Model instability progs support thunder chances Thursday afternoon through Friday. Adjacent offices agreed through coordination. With such strong dynamics and some instability...day6 SPC outlook supports severe possibility with mainly a damaging wind threat. Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support well above normal blend temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 through Friday and more seasonable highs mostly in the 40s by Saturday in the wake of the cold front. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 192100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Lingering cloud cloud near 015 has dissipated, so will take this out of the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Previous discussion follows. Visible satellite loop indicates thin spots developing within the low cloud deck, so expecting lingering IFR/patchy LIFR conditions to lift and scatter out over the next couple of hours. May see redevelopment of IFR ceilings/visibilities after 200300Z tonight given limited mixing and residual moisture trapped under a shallow low level inversion. Surface winds generally at or below 6 kts through this evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...JAS


text:
1125 W Windsor Rd 1125
Champaign, IL 61821
2131 S Neil St Champaign, IL
202 S Country Fair Dr Champaign, IL
This establishment was quick and precise in the cleaning of my clothes. They were delicate with the clothes and took wonderful care for them. It was also cheap and not expensive at all, the perfect price for a broke college student.4


text:
Fresh meat
Fresh Meat
Tags: hardcore
Fresh Meat brunette
Tags: brunettes busty fingering masturbation milf
Rachelle Fresh Meat
Tags: amateur hardcore
Fresh Meat Testing
Tags: amateur babes brunettes campus coed college college girl
Interracial Fresh Meat
Tags: anal interracial threesome
Fresh Teen Meat Threesome
Tags: hardcore oral teens threesome
Fresh girl meat suspended
Tags: bdsm bondage kinky
Fresh meat Katy Rose
Tags: bedroom blondes cash money reality white
Tags: fetish
Hardcore granny wants fresh meat
Tags: blowjobs granny group sex hardcore matures pussy
Hot blonde mommy need fresh meat
Tags: blondes blowjobs giving head hardcore milf mom oral
Brand New Fresh Meat - Aria Alexander
Tags: fetish hardcore masturbation orgasm solo toys
Fresh College Meat Fucked From Behind
Tags: college from behind teens
Fresh Meat Anal Slut! by Everything Butt
Tags: anal ass asshole bdsm butt dungeon fetish
fresh big black meat for remy lacroix movie
Tags: big cock black hardcore interracial riding teens
Bianca sink her teeth into young fresh meat
Tags: blondes blowjobs brunettes deep throat doggystyle facials hairy
Fresh Meat Coffee Brown by The Upper Floor
Tags: bdsm blowjobs coffee brown ebony group sex humiliation maledom
Shanna McCullough fucks Sana Fey (Fresh Meat#4)
Tags: babes big ass brunettes doggy high heels lesbians milf
Fresh and sweet meat/Sasha Jones. Part 4
Tags: ass big cock big tits blowjobs brunettes kiss missionary
Kinky mother in law tastes fresh man meat
Tags: granny kinky
Busty MILF Julia Ann finds herself some fresh meat
Tags: beauty big tits blondes blowjobs busty cute julia ann
Fresh Meat #29 Brooklyn Lee, Nicole Aniston, Shazia Sahari
Tags: anal babes blondes blowjobs brooklyn brunettes hardcore
TrafficHolder.com - Buy and Sell Adult Traffic|Trafficshop.com - Let your business grow|Contact Us|Webmaster
All content, including images, text, graphics, video and audio content contained in the website is protected under the laws of copyright, owned or under license to company or its designees,and represents proprietary and valuable intellectual property.
Contact Webmaster 18 U.S.C. 2257 Record-Keeping Requirements Compliance Statement
Powered by Stream Rotator


text:
Taken approx 5 years ago.Beautifully natured boy.
dog james
He looks just like one of my dogs, nice shot.
Thank You Harakiri….he is a great dog too.
We have a Rott he's 4 years old love him to death.
I love Rottis, they are one of the most misunderstood of canine breeds. Nice capture.
Thanks Frogster and Marion, this guy has such a beautiful nature, and I agree with totally misunderstood Marion, they are a gorgeous animal.
Awww! I had a Rottie too. Loved her well captured.
Thanks Holly, he wasn't mine, but he was my (female) blue heelers boyfriend! and she dominated him! lol… it was very cute.
Loading more work by Magnetic...
10% off
for joining the Redbubble mailing list
Receive exclusive deals and awesome artist news and content right to your inbox.
Free for your convenience.


text:
I have eaten and had a beer here my last two visits to the area. Great outdoor seating area and very good food for reasonable prices. I would recommend stopping here for a bite. I believe they have outdoor shows in the evening as well.
敬请注意: 由于本网站不支持您正在使用的浏览器,会有部分页面不能正常显示。
推荐使用TripAdvisor支持的浏览器: Windows: Internet Explorer 11, Mozilla Firefox, Google Chrome. Mac: Safari.
这家餐厅提供免费 Wifi 吗?
I have eaten and had a beer here my last two visits to the area. Great outdoor seating area and very good food for reasonable prices. I would recommend stopping here for a bite. I believe they have outdoor shows in the evening as well.
Food was good. If you sit outside you have to order your food from the bar. Not a big deal. Bond fire really nice. Roast marshmallows cute for the kids. Nice place to visit.
I live very close to San Tan Flats and I always enjoyed going there with family and friends, I'm usually there at least once a week!! the food is good the atmosphere is fun and the people are friendly... he gets a little busy when the snowbirds are in town!
Great atmosphere. Friendly people great service. Everything was great. Lots to do and see I like the people the most. I am a people person.
Went to San Tan Flat Restaurant and we ordered the Flat Iron Steak. It was perfectly cooked as were all the sides! The atmosphere was awesome with a live musician playing classic country tunes, room for billiards, fire pits, full bar, and just an awesome place to kick back with your friends and family for a good night out!
I absolutely LOVE this restaurant! The open, outside feel with the firepits and picnic tables are my favorite. The live music def makes it as well! This is always on my stop list when I visit.
Arrived @ 5:30, parking lot already packed. Managed to find 1 seat @ the bar while we waited 20 minutes for a table inside. Bartender prompt and $6.00 for a decent pour on a call drink. Seated in 20 minutes, food & drink order taken within 5 minutes. Food arrived about 15 minutes later. Steaming hot & delicious plus very... 更多
Best Ribeye ever!! Fun western themed restaurant. Inside and outside (around fire pits) dining. Usually have to wait for inside table.
This is a local place that also draws visitors and seasonal residents. San Tan Flat is a steak house, saloon and a live music venue. I've been going there for several years and it has been a consistent good choice. The menu leans towards steaks but also offers chicken and fish as well as salad selections. Never had a bad... 更多
拥有或管理这家酒店? 免费获取您的详情页以便回复点评、更新资料或者进行其他操作。获取您的详情页


text:
Mansfield, Nottinghamshire
Asking Price: £5,000
This business comprises the trademark of a unique food product and could offer an investor the opportunity to launch a profitable business with the potential to create a well-known brand on supermarke... More details
Annual Turnover: TBC
Tenure: Relocatable
Results: Showing 1 to 10 of 37 for sale
Southampton, Hampshire
Asking Price: £19,995
Operating from a home base in Southampton, this owner-run electrical services business is an attractive proposition. Established in 1980 and operated to a flexible schedule, it provides a range of... More details
Annual Turnover: £20,000
Tenure: Relocatable
Stockport, Greater Manchester
Asking Price: £19,999
The business outlined herein is a well established driving school providing driving lessons and tuition with an outstanding reputation and a proven history of financial success. It is well establi... More details
Annual Turnover: £15,750
Tenure: Home based
Other Motor and Transport
Manchester, Greater Manchester
Asking Price: £119,950
On offer is an excellent business with very large profit margins and many loyal customers. It benefits from very rapid year on year income growth thanks to its high quality products. Because it is... More details
Annual Turnover: £96,000
Tenure: Home based
E-commerce and Online
East Sussex
Asking Price: £50,000
This is a remarkable opportunity to acquire a reputable online magazine which is targeted at the travel/leisure market. Since 2014, it has acquired a solid readership base and by offering high qua... More details
Annual Turnover: TBC
Tenure: Relocatable
E-commerce and Online
Selby, North Yorkshire
Asking Price: £9,950
This is an exciting opportunity to purchase one of the most dynamic art and print retailers within its online sector. The business specialises in an extensive product offering for hand selected wall a... More details
Annual Turnover: £22,500
Tenure: Relocatable
E-commerce and Online
Ringwood, Hampshire
Asking Price: £130,000
A rare opportunity to acquire a removals business with an established business model and untapped growth potential. This removal company currently operates from the Bournemouth area, but as it has no... More details
Annual Turnover: £130,000
Tenure: Relocatable
Motor, Transport and Haulage
Rotherham, South Yorkshire
Asking Price: £79,950
This is a very well established and successful cleaning company operating throughout South Yorkshire. It has a great reputation, garnering a lot of customer loyalty and continuing contracts every... More details
Annual Turnover: £142,000
Tenure: Relocatable
Cleaning Company
Mansfield, Nottinghamshire
Asking Price: £5,000
This business comprises the trademark of a unique food product and could offer an investor the opportunity to launch a profitable business with the potential to create a well-known brand on supermarke... More details
Annual Turnover: TBC
Tenure: Relocatable
Home Based Business
Asking Price: £15,000
This is a fabulous opportunity to acquire a highly distinctive fabrics business that provides multifaceted sewing, alterations and quilting. This is a home based operation that has been establishe... More details
Annual Turnover: £13,272
Tenure: Relocatable
Home Based Business
London, London - North East
Asking Price: £12,000
This is a unique concept based online, that has filled a large gap in the domestic cleaning market. For sale due only to our client having another business and family commitments immediately follo... More details
Annual Turnover: £14,000 Projected
Tenure: Relocatable
E-commerce and Online


text:
You can store your downloads in your account when you signup!
An iPhone 5c mockup in portrait mode laying next to a bright green/blue notebook and a slick silver pen. This iPhone 5c mockup is designed to showcase a variety of apps in context, allowing you to present your design in the best possible way. It lays on a wooden desk, casually portraying a creative situation.
Drag & drop not supported, but you can still upload via this input field:


text:
Pink bathroom furniture
Explore related topics
Charming in Charlotte: One Room Challenge: Guest Room // REVEAL
Tatcor did not build this, this pin was repinned to provide inspiration for us, and you! What little girl wouldn't love this bathroom?
Restyling light cabinets and furniture into darker statement pieces is a popular choice now. Pickled pink oak, honey colored maple and golden oak are some of the many of the colors that I…
Towels - translate at translate.google.com DIY Dollhouse Bathroom Furniture Towels For Barbies and Ever After High Dolls!
Pink bathroom - love the shower curtain
VINTAGE 1950s Pink Bar Cart
Think Pink! 5 Girly Bathroom Ideas http://mckennableu.com/
If I ever get my grandmother's bedroom furniture I am thinking about pink and white for my "FUTURE" guest room.
Home Ideas from KOHLER - for the ladies who love pink, this VibrAcoustic tub has built in hidden speakers so you can FEEL the music as you hear it - heaven!
Magical Home Inspirations


text:
Spa treatments:
Drinking medicinal mineral water is an important part of your spa stay. The rich mineral waters gently regulate the functioning of the stomach, bowels, kidneys and liver. A drinking treatment normally consists of drinking a prescribed amount of the mineral before meals, as drinking on an empty stomach increases the efficiency and effect of the mineral substances and their absorption into the body. Each particular fountain in our different spa resorts in Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia has its own unique benefits and advantages. Instructions on how to take full advantage of this natural resource can be found in the spa. In general, it is advised to drink between 1-2 decilitres before meals. Our Health Spa Resort of Marienbad was built around the healing effects of its medicinal drinking springs, world famous for its curative effects on kidney and urinary tract conditions. There are seven different mineral water springs in Marienbad, each with their own particular benefits and healing mineral components. Because of this, combined with the importance of embarking upon the correct drinking regime, your spa doctor will advise you on which spring can best benefit your health condition. In Marienbad, you will normally be prescribed to drink between 1-2 litres per day.
This traditional treatment procedure dates back to 1905. During the treatment the guest sits in the original bath which is filled with CO2 natural gas directly from Maria's spring. The gas reaches up to the waist. At the same time the guest breathes oxygen through a tube which causes a revitalizing and relaxation effect. The treatment improves the blood circulation throughout the whole body, improves the saturation of haemoglobin with the oxygen, which helps to regenerate cells, thereby reducing aging (having an anti-aging effect).
After the doctor's examination and diagnosis, a specific area of the body is prescribed for massage. The aim is to stimulate blood circulation in this specific area, release muscle tension and improve the mobility of the connective tissue and joint.
When you book directly with Danubius Hotels Group, you can be sure that you are getting the
best publicly available hotel room rates. If you find a lower public
rate anywhere else within 24 hours of your booking time, we will match
the rate plus give you a EUR 30 Discount which can be used for Food
& Beverage and extra services of the hotel during your stay,subject to our Terms & Conditions.You can submit your claim by filling out our online form. Claims must be submitted at least 48 hours before the standard check-in time at the applicable hotel.
We would like to inform our guests that as of 1 August 2014, the operation of Danubius Zrt's Hotel Lövér in Sopron has been transferred to an unaffiliated operator. As a result, the hotel's website may now be accessed at www.hotellover.huHotel Lövér will no longer participate in any special deals or discounts pertaining to hotels in the Danubius Zrt. network, and it will not be possible to collect or redeem points in the company's frequent guest programme, nor redeem the Danubius Gift Card there.Any reservations received prior to 1 August will naturally remain valid according to the prices and conditions previously confirmed by the hotel, and frequent guest card points for these stays will also be credited accordingly.If you have any further questions, please contact us for more information:Tel.:+36 99 888 400 | Email: email@example.com you for your understanding in this matter.
Hot deals
Holiday offers
Family holidays
All inclusive offers
Short breaks
Wellness and Beauty
Medical spa stays
Health and Prevention
Czech Republic
Explore our Spa destinations:
Our website uses cookies as a means of enhancing the experience of our visitors. Continuing to browse our site indicates that you agree to our use of cookies. More information>


text:
Tongue sores
From today evening my daughter is facing painfull whitish color tongue sores. She is unable to eat/swallow solid foods. Just drank milk.
43 Views
Doctor Answers (1) on Tongue sores
Dr. Harsha
Bangalore | General Physician
Hello there...I can understand your concern. Recuurent ulcers in the mouth can be due to many reasons like vitamin deficiency, candidiasis, herpes simplex infection, pemphigus, oral lichen planus. It is to determine the cause because treatment of each condition differs. So kindly consult a dermatologist for further evaluation.
Flag this answer
1/1 people found this helpful
Was this answer helpful?