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Katraj, Pune, India- 411046.
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The following video is part of our nationally syndicated Motley Fool Money radio show, with host Chris Hill talking with advisors Tim Hanson, Ron Gross, and James Early. In this segment the guys analyze Apple's relationship with manufacturers in China. In the wake of recent news reports about the dangerous working conditions at some of the factories in China, the guys discuss how much leverage Apple has, the upcoming audit results, and what investors should be watching for next. As one who has toured factories in China, Tim reminds investors that the relationship between American companies and Chinese manufacturers is not as black and white as some may believe.
Apple and China: It's Complicated
Chris Hill
Full-time host of the Motley Fool Money radio show, MarketFoolery podcast, and other things. Part-time connoisseur of movies, basketball & fine bourbon.
Article Info
- Feb 20, 2012 at 12:00AM
- Other

subset: commoncrawl


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Friday Market
As the last remaining market town on the ancient Tea & Horse Caravan trail, Shaxi still hosts the local market every Friday. If you are coming to Shaxi, try to be here for it. The Bai people from all the villages in Shaxi Valley and the Yi people from the surrounding mountains all come together to trade cattle, horses and other farm animals. Minority women will be dressed in their colorful traditional costumes, and men will often lead pack mules to carry supplies back to their mountain villages, much like in the days of the Tea & Horse Caravan Trail hundreds of years ago.
Average time for this activity (in hrs):


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Calaway Park fun By Stan P
kids enjoying a ride at Callaway Park
Mar 21, 2011
Thrill Seeker, Family Fun, Must-See Spots
Callaway Park
Get the lowdown on Calaway Park
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Suggested Itineraries
Icons & Landmarksview details
Take a tour of Calgary at some of our vintage landmarks, or go straight for the big vistas at attractions like the Calgary Tower and WinSport.
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Thrill seekers warning: the activities listed above and similar activities are considered hazardous and extremely fun.
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Australia 478 India 435-5
Sachin Tendulkar was the star turn with a magnificent 191 not out as India dominated day three of the second Test against Australia in Bangalore.
The tourists rallied late in the day but India still closed on a commanding 435 for five as Tendulkar edged towards his second double century against Australia. India, who lead 1-0 in the two-match series after winning the first Test in Mohali by one wicket, are 43 runs behind Australia's 478.
Tendulkar and Murali Vijay, the opener who scored 139, put on a record stand of 308 runs for the third wicket - a remarkable recovery


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Mountain Khakis
Camber 104 Hybrid Short Classic Fit$69.95 USD MSRP SHOWING: GUNMETAL
Product Information
a.k.a. The All Mountain. Performance stretch blend is lightweight, durable and wind-resistant. 7 pockets including cell phone and zippered security pockets on right thigh. Diamond-shaped action gusset. Hand-drawn bison patch. Bison bottle opener keyring. Imported. 65% cotton/33% nylon/2% spandex. Classic fit. Also available in a Pant (#857).


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BTG, Quantitas Say Ibovespa at Decade Low Has Further to Fallby and
Ibovespa's trading at lowest level since 2005 in dollars
Political crisis, recession may deepen rout, BTG analyst says
A rout in Brazil stocks has sent the Ibovespa to the lowest in a decade. That's still too high for some investors.
BTG Pactual SA and Quantitas Asset Management say political gridlock and the worst recession in more than a century threaten to deepen a selloff that has already sent the Ibovespa tumbling more than 9 percent in dollar terms in the first few days of the year. It follows five straight years of losses that wiped out 70 percent of the benchmark stock index's value.
For many investors, there's just no compelling reason to buy stocks from Latin America's biggest economy. Interest rates are rising, inflation is at a 12-year high, industrial production has tumbled for 21 straight months and exports haven't picked up even after the real lost a third of its value last year. Add to that a sweeping corruption scandal that's paralyzed Brazil's capital and distracted lawmakers from focusing on getting the economy back on track.
"It's a discouraging truth, but it's the truth," Wagner Salaverry, a partner at Quantitas, which oversees 22 billion reais ($5.5 billion), said from Porto Alegre. "The risks of a worsening economic scenario aren't fully priced in yet. If the government doesn't do an adjustment to the economy, it's hard to say stocks will be a good investment. The market won't pay in advance, hoping for a change."
The Ibovespa dropped 0.4 percent to 39,364.90 at 2:25 p.m., the lowest level since March 2009. In dollar terms, the gauge is at the lowest level since 2005. Stocks are trading at 9.4 times their 12-month estimated earnings, 15 percent below their three-year average.
The recession is likely to hurt growth in corporate earnings this year, according to BTG. The bank estimates earnings will expand 6.5 percent for companies that rely on domestic demand, in line with inflation. Lower commodity prices should limit improvements for exporters, the bank said.
"Is Brazil cheap? Not really," analysts led by Carlos Sequeira wrote in the bank's 2016 Brazil equity strategy outlook report. "Expected earnings have been constantly revised downwards, and visibility is poor," justifying below-average valuations, the analysts wrote.
Foreign investors seem to agree. They pulled a net 4.3 billion reais from Brazilian stocks in December, the worst month since at least 2010, according to data compiled by the exchange. The move continued into 2016, with a net outflow of about 820 million reais in the first week of January.
The political crisis is fueling much of the negative sentiment among investors. President Dilma Rousseff is fighting attempts to impeach her on allegations she mismanaged the country's budget, making it harder to gain support for reforms needed to shore up the nation's finances. Joaquim Levy, who took over as finance minister in 2015 with the goal of fixing the country's finances and avoiding a sovereign downgrade, left after just one year on the job. His replacement, Nelson Barbosa, is trying to overcome skepticism that he'll fare better at turning around the now junk-rated country.
"We see a very inappropriate economic policy, internal political risks, turbulence, little conviction about the adjustments and even at these levels it's not attractive to us in valuation terms," Jorge Unda, who oversees about $35 billion as chief Latin America investment officer for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, said from Mexico City. "We continue to be negative on Brazil in general across markets -- in stocks, bonds and the real. We don't like it."


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The teaching at the programmes is based on research at the highest international level. Therefore, the programmes offered at each campus reflects the research profile at the campus.
Below, you find a list of the profiles offered in English language at SDU. At the profiles offered in English language, all teaching is in English. Exams also take place in English. Depending on the course and profile, it may be possible to take an exam in Danish. This will be evident from the profile description and the course descriptions.The University of Southern Denmark offers MSc programmes in Economics and Business Administration at its five campuses in Esbjerg, Kolding, Odense, Sønderborg, and Slagelse.
In the programme, you can choose between a range of profiles all with a focus on business administration issues. Students must apply to a specific profile. It is not possible to obtain a MSc in Economics and Business Administration at the University of Southern Denmark without selecting a specific profile
The master programme consists of courses in business economics and business administration and relevant methodical courses which expand on academic and interdisciplinary areas encountered during the bachelor programme. Courses within economics may also be part of the master programme.The specific courses for each profile are listed on the pages describing the profile in question. The size of each course is stated in ECTS.
At least 60 ECTS credits of the profile are compulsary. These courses supply knowledge which, within the boundaries of the profile, is based on the highest international research.
At least 10 ECTS credits of the obligatory courses must supply knowledge about and skills within the scientific methods of the subject area of the profile allowing the graduate to master these methods and assess and select among these. The methodological courses are listed in the profile descriptions.
Electives worth a minimum of 10 ECTS.
A master�s thesis worth 30 ECTS concluding the study.At most profiles you have to possibility to conduct and internship. On all profiles, it is possible to conduct a study period at another university on the 3rd semester of the programme.
Starting in
You can apply until:
Starting in
You can apply until:
Always verify the dates on the programme website.
It is only possible to get admitted to MSc. in Economics and Business Administration if you have successfully completed your bachelor's or professional bachelor degree, and your degree is included as a part of the curriculum for the master programme with the qualifying undergraduate programmes for admission.Admission to MSc programme in Economics and Business Administration is possible with qualifying bachelor degrees as mentioned in the annex to the curriculum. The list is formed from bachelor and professional bachelor programmes that have been assessed for qualification at this point in time. Other bachelor or professional bachelor degrees may possibly fulfil the admission requirements but will have to be evaluated first.
Options for full-degree graduate students:
Only available for students applying for a master programme at our Sønderborg Campus
Six one-year scholarships are issued pr. year: three for studies within the technical field i.e. Mechatronics and Innovation & Business respectively, and three are for studies within the field of business administration i.e. Business Relationship Management.
A scholarship of DKK 40.000 may be granted if and when the requirements are met. It is paid in two instalments of DKK 20.000 per semester. The scholarship grant depends on acceptance and enrolment as a full-time student in one of the above mentioned programmes.
Options for Exchange and Guest Students:
Danish Government Scholarships for Foreign Nationals - The scholarship helps cover living expenses.
StudyPortals Tip: Students can search online for independent or external scholarships that can help fund their studies. Check the scholarships to see whether you are eligible to apply. Many scholarships are either merit-based or needs-based.
The award recognises studying abroad as a positively life changing experience for many students as well as promoting intercultural understanding and tolerance. Successful candidates will receive up to £10,000 to be applied toward the cost of tuition fees.
Testimonial Registration Module
Together with the ISIC Association and British Council IELTS, StudyPortals offers you the chance to receive up to £10000 to expand your horizon and study abroad. We want to ultimately encourage you to study abroad in order to experience and explore new countries, cultures and languages.


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Which Joe gave his name to 'sloppy joes'? We look at five interesting sandwiches and their lexical origins.
proper noun
(1911–72), US gospel singer and musician. She came into her own in the mid 1940s, when her recording of ""Move Up a Little Higher"" sold over a million copies. She was a featured performer at President Kennedy's inaugural ceremony.
Further reading
6 punctuation marks you might be using incorrectlyRead more
We take a look at several popular, though confusing, punctuation marks.
An A-Z of country name originsRead more
From Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, discover surprising and intriguing language facts from around the globe.
How brothers became buddies and brosRead more
The definitions of 'buddy' and 'bro' in the OED have recently been revised. We explore their history and increase in popularity.


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Highlights of BlogHer10
I'm writing this summary fresh from the closing remarks at BlogHer10, New York City. After two days of conferencing with 2400 women, this is what stands out in my notebook and on my mind:
What is your goal?
Like anything else in life, blogging requires a goal. If you are going to do it, make sure you understand why you like it and what you are trying to accomplish. Are you blogging for personal or professional reasons? If it's personal, then stop stressing over it and have fun, no matter what your statistics look like. If it's professional, then focus on defining your niche, establishing your audience, refining your message, and calling your readers to action. [It seems like the days of popularity for online mommy diaries has passed. Rather, blogs with niches, impactful messages, communities and resources are getting action and acclaim.]
Focus your message.
In the same room with 2400 bloggers are Fortune 500 companies trying to get their attention. That in itself is a statement that marketers believe bloggers are influencers with purchasing power. So if you are a blogger, what productive thing can YOU do to harness this implied position of influence? If you have a message (whether it's politics, the environment, parenting, etc.), now is the time to dive in and "find your voice".
Encourage leadership.
Think harder about leadership, which can mean giving a nod to people who you think will be good leaders in public policy. As the closing remarks stated, "power unused is power useless".
Get to know more geeky tools and techniques.
Your blog statistics should include measurements by unique visitors (real humans), as opposed to 'hits' or 'pageviews'. To understand your statistics and analytics, tools like Get Clicky, Facebook Insights, Google Goals and Funnels, Hootsuite, Google Webmaster tools, and Alexa should be on your radar. For ecommerce, OpenSky seems to be the current hot topic. Also become more familiar with Google Page Rank and how it can help measure the impact of particular websites.
Overall, the conference had it's highs and lows. The high number of attendees made it tough to find casual networking opportunities. I also found the session quality to be mediocre; too many of them went straight to Q&A without much meat. I question whether the conference can continue it's momentum without refining it's OWN message and goals. I hope it does though, San Diego is a nice destination!
More from living


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Godet - VSCognac
Was £28.31 - Now £24.65
In Stock
70cl Bottle £24.65
In Stock
Country of OriginFrance
Producer Information
Other Information
- RegionCognac
This cognac has a powerful nose of fresh vanilla.
It is accentuated with notes of old leather.
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Core EDC
This is my CORE EDC loadout in a small (2.5"*3.25"*1") pouch. It is supposed to be a travel safe collection of tools.
I have this CORE EDC with me all the time in one of my front pockets. The tools inside complement the other personal items I carry in various pockets (pocketknife, cellphone, keyfob, ID/cards holder).
Who Likes This (204)
Thank you for your contribution. Your message has been sent privately to our editorial staff for review.


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Species Audit
244 Calderdale Priority Species have been identified. Many of these are highly vulnerable and there is a real risk of local extinction if we do not prioritise conservation action at these species.
Biodiversity in the district is dynamic; this report is really just a snapshot of the current situation. A review process needs to be set in place to monitor the continuing ecological change in the district as Action Plans bring about changes as well as to reflect changes in the status of national flora and fauna.
Targeted recording or surveys of the Priority Species is recommended. They also need to be considered within land management and development plans. There is a need to determine the conservation requirements of the lesser-known Priority Species and to reflect this within management plans and Action Plans.
It is not recommended that Action Plans be produced for each of the species. Habitat Action Plans will cater for the conservation requirements of many. In other cases species, for example bats, may be grouped together and a single Action Plan produced. A Rare Species Action Plan, covering all species, has been produced to include actions such as surveying, monitoring, recording and incorporation in management plans. For species important in a regional context, regional Action Plans may be appropriate.
The production of this report was hindered by the difficulty of accessing records. A greater willingness to share records and an up to date centralised database would greatly help species conservation. We would appeal to anyone holding valuable information to make his or her records available to West Yorkshire Ecology.
The omission of species from this Audit does not mean that they have no value to biodiversity. We must remember that biodiversity includes all species, and when we take action to protect key species and habitats we do so because they are severely threatened, not because their contribution to biodiversity is any more important than that of the commoner ones. It is intended that the implementation of the BAP will benefit a wide range of wildlife and not just Priority Species.
This report highlights gaps in our knowledge. It is to be hoped that naturalists will be encouraged to identify omissions and report records of species of conservation concern. Amendments will be issued and species added to and deleted from the list of Priority Species as new information becomes available.


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Spells For Cheating Husband in Valencia, Spain
Welcome! My name is Phelan, I am a psychic, witch practitioner and root worker located in Atlanta, GA. I specialize in performing white witchcraft rituals customized to all my client's needs. You may call me at 678-918-3333 or create an account if you have questions about psychic phone consultations in person or by phone to reveal your spiritual path and to remove obstacles or if you are interested in Spells For Cheating Husband. Even though I am physically located in Atlanta I can bring positive and magical change to you in Valencia, Spain, magic knows no boundaries!
Besides being a white witch, I am also a gifted psychic. I am clairvoyant, clairsentient and clairaudient, I often combine my psychic gifts with my magical workings in order to tune into my client and to lend greater insight to the issues that they are dealing with, it is my belief that we are all magical beings. I offer psychic readings in person if you are in the Atlanta area or by phone if you are located elsewhere.
Magic is personal and rituals and spells should always be a private matter, never speak of your magic to another, remember nothing succeeds like a secret, contact me today and lets discuss your magical needs.
I look forward to working with and aiding you in effecting the positive change within your life that you desire, need and deserve!
Blessed Be, Phelan
Spells For Cheating Husband | Potato Spells | Valencia, Spain


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iPhone apps
Radio Wroclaw
The Radio Wroclaw application lets you listen to Radio Wroclaw on your iPhone or iPod Touch wherever you want it and whenever you want it. It also delivers texts, images and sounds in a form of news and podcasts. You may find there useful weather and….. Read more
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Rated 5/5 based on 1 customer reviews.
5/5 stars
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Radio Wroclaw iPad Edition
The Radio Wroclaw application lets you listen to Radio Wroclaw on your iPad wherever you want it and whenever you want it. It also delivers texts, images and sounds in a form of news and podcasts. You… [more..]
Price: free |
WROCŁAW IN YOUR POCKET. Now on your iPhone! Get the most out of Wrocław with In Your Pocket, Europe's biggest publisher of locally-produced city guides.-----------------------------------"In Your… [more..]
Price: $2.99 |
Wroclaw – Petit Futé – Guide Voyage Tourisme
COMPATIBLE IPHONE et IPADCE LIVRE NUMERIQUE EST EN ANGLAISCette application est un livre numérique. Elle reproduit l'intégralité du guide papier.The advertising slogan for the city, "Wrocław the… [more..]
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Street map with locate me function makes you free to move, Background reading always accompanies you on your tripConvenience download for more than 700 worldwide destinations from the build-in links… [more..]
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Wroclaw Band, A nice adventure game. In the application, the photos of Wroclaw city and music rock group BANK.Soon - Wroclaw on augamented reality, best places in Wroclaw,city plan, add your own… [more..]
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[100+ best places in Wroclaw available in English, Russian, German, Slovak, Polish, Italian, Spanish language] Lost in Wroclaw or maybe you do not like to waste your time on a disappointing places or… [more..]
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Would you like to visit Wroclaw? You don't know what you can expect there? In this application you could read about a couple of places that are worth to visit. You will find one item in each… [more..]
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One world -> many worlds
November 26, 2012
Before we can become a species of more than one world, we prob'ly need to become a species of ONE world. We need to lay aside our cultural and religious differences, or at least our violent defense of our own paticular culture and religion, in order to reach the "United Federation of Planets" vision of the future. We can't be anti-science and think god created the universe in 6 24-hour days. We can't!
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Planetary Defense
An asteroid or comet headed for Earth is the only large-scale natural disaster we can prevent. Working together to fund our Shoemaker NEO Grants for astronomers, we can help save the world.
Beyond The Horizon, There's More To Explore!
Become a member of The Planetary Society and together we will create the future of space exploration.
Space in Images
Pretty pictures and
awe-inspiring science.
Join The Planetary Society
Let's explore the cosmos together!


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Supercapacitors, or supercaps, with their unlimited recharging capability and high energy density, provide automotive, heavy transportation, marine and traction applications with guaranteed engine starting over broad temperature range even when a battery fails.
In mobile electronic systems, supercaps provide the ability to regulate peak current over several different application usage scenarios. With better regulation of the discharge, the batteries are able to hold their peak capacity of energy longer and extend the run time of devices.
Examining the market needs of both application areas demonstrates that the benefits of adding super capacitors but in critically different ways.
Engine Starting
The most critical factor in the transportation sector is engine starting reliability. Every time a lead-acid battery is used to start an engine, it is one step closer to end-of-life. Using a bank of supercapacitors for ignition system relieves the battery from the harsh discharging of engine starts that typically diminish life span. A typical lead-acid battery can have its useful life extend by as much as 70% in certain applications through the use of supercaps. Additionally, starting an engine with a supercap enables greater reliability in colder temperatures.
In the case of the trucking industry, there are several factors where super capacitor usage could help improve daily operations. Typically, 18-wheel tractor trailer rigs and passenger buses carry three to four batteries. When one battery fails, and the vehicle requires a jump start, it can be relatively expensive at a cost of $600 per incident.
Additionally, battery replacement costs are about $200 each and because of this, market research shows that battery theft in both trucks and buses is a problem area. Furthermore, starting reliability for lead-acid cells drops precipitously in temperatures below -23°C. Supercaps, on the other hand can extend that range to -40°C, further improving engine start reliability where cold weather conditions prevail.
In the case of motor generators that are generally used at construction sites where grid power


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Recent Posts
- RT @mattdpearce: credit to the Kansas City Star, which has been reporting the hell out of an important story kansascity.com/news/local/cri… 3 hours ago
- RT @NickKristof: Good for @ScottPelley to speaking truth to power. twitter.com/CBSEveningNews… 3 hours ago
- RT @davidakin: Meanwhile, @GermanRLopez writing at @Voxdotcom says it was a 16-year-old teenage girl that brought down Milo. Wow. https://t… 4 hours ago
- RT @rbbrenner: Great piece by @mWilstory, one of the finest editors and newsroom leaders I know. He works in service of the people. https:/… 6 days ago
- RT @dmrider: Wow, this story was everywhere, used as proof of harm caused by refugees - and it was a total myth. Spectacular fail by @BILD… 1 week ago
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Tag Archives: Google
Infographic: Birmingham Council salaries merged with corporate structure
It's only human nature to be interested in what other people get paid for a living. It's even more interesting when those people are top executives at a City Council in the midst of an unprecedented austerity program. Birmingham City … Continue reading
Posted in Birmingham Budget Cuts, data journalism Tagged Birmingham, Birmingham City Council, Google, Information graphics, salaries 2 Comments


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I don't normally write reviews but when I saw what was posted about this place I had to give my two cents. I do not know what this other reviewer is talking about because that was not the story when I went here several days ago. The store is a one room place that sells theatre equipment stuff and theatre make-up which is what I was there for. I had no idea what would be good and the staff was knowledgeable and pointed me towards what he thought would be the best one. The product was brand new. There were two people working there and someone was by the phone so maybe this other woman was just dialing the wrong place?
Philadelphia Dance Wear
About Search Results
YP - The Real Yellow PagesSM - helps you find the right local businesses to meet your specific needs. Search results are sorted by a combination of factors to give you a set of choices in response to your search criteria. These factors are similar to those you might use to determine which business to select from a local Yellow Pages directory, including proximity to where you are searching, expertise in the specific services or products you need, and comprehensive business information to help evaluate a business's suitability for you. "Preferred" listings, or those with featured website buttons, indicate YP advertisers who directly provide information about their businesses to help consumers make more informed buying decisions. YP advertisers receive higher placement in the default ordering of search results and may appear in sponsored listings on the top, side, or bottom of the search results page.
1. Avenue Of The Arts Dancewear
This place is spectacular. The owner helped me find a unique product and then ordered it specifically for me. He has a great selection of both dan…
2. Capezio Dance Theatre Shop
1805 East Passyunk AvePhiladelphia, PA 19148
3. Capezio
106 S 11th StPhiladelphia, PA 19107
4. Philadelphia Theatrical Supply
I don't normally write reviews but when I saw what was posted about this place I had to give my two cents. I do not know what this other reviewer is…
1101 South 27th StreetPhiladelphia, PA 19146
6. Baum's Dancewear
1805 East Passyunk AvePhiladelphia, PA 19148
From Business: Baum's is a 4th Generation Family owned business, dedicated to dance and outfitting dancers for over a century. We are a manufacturer, wholesale distributor and r…
7. Body Dreams
1129 S Broad StPhiladelphia, PA 19147
8. Footloose Dancewear Prima Soft Inc
I love this store. I buy everything from tights to leotards to shoes. The quality is excellent too. My first set of shoes lasted a really long time.…
9. My Dance Bag
900 Township LnCherry Hill, NJ 08002
10. Motions Dance & Fitness Shoppe
5050 Fairway Rd Second FloorDrexel Hill, PA 19026
11. Sheila E's Dance & Fitness
914 Kings HwyHaddon Heights, NJ 08035
12. Swan Dancewear
Horrible and disrespectful stuff. we wanted to exchange one shoe size for another and they made us go back home to bring the original box. The lady …
13. Fireworks Dance Center
11 W. Winona Ave.Norwood, PA 19074
14. Bowman Dance Company
107 Dekalb StBridgeport, PA 19405
From Business: Bowman dance Company & school is committed to developing a passion for dance in every student. Providing opportunities to develop motivation. Self discipline. Int…
15. Dress 2 Dance Inc
30 E Glenside AvenueGlenside, PA 19038
16. Leotard World
227 Laurel RdVoorhees, NJ 08043
17. Grishko
241 King Manor Dr Ste D, King Of Prussia PA, 19406King Of Prussia, PA 19406
18. Turning Pointe Dance Wear
8 N West AveWenonah, NJ 08090
19. Tricia Sloan Dance Center
1 W Mantua AveWenonah, NJ 08090
From Business: TSDC is truly a family owned and operated business. Each and every member of the Sloan family participates in the ownership and operations of the dance center. Ea…
20. From The Top Studio Of Dance
3544 W Chester PikeNewtown Square, PA 19073
21. Performance Wear
1116 Horsham Rd Ste 4Ambler, PA 19002
22. Dance Boutique & Activewear
224 Fries Mill RdBlackwood, NJ 08012
23. All About Dance
703 N Main StGlassboro, NJ 08028
24. On Pointe Dance
111 High St EGlassboro, NJ 08028
25. Stylin' Steps
1432 Lark LnHainesport, NJ 08036
26. Kicks-N-Splits
Tights, leotards, ballet shoes, taps, and extras - if you dance, Kicks N Splits has what you're looking for. The store stocks basics and fun stuff …
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28. Kicks N Splits
228 York RdWarminster, PA 18974
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501 Glen Echo AveSwedesboro, NJ 08085
From Business: Excellence in Dance Education
30. Brandywine Dance Shoppe
3617 Silverside RdWilmington, DE 19810
From Business: Brandywine Dance Shoppe of Wilmington, Delaware, is an acclaimed dance store with a great assortment of high-quality at an affordable priced dance supplies. At ou…


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Hafizabad: 7 arrested from brothel
HAFIZABAD: The City police arrested five men and two women from a brothel at Mohallah Bahawalpura on Thursday. On a tip-off, the police raided the house of Rehana Bibi and arrested her, Fauzia Bibi, Iftikhar, Afzal, Saeed, Mansha and Iqbal. The police have registered a case and started investigations.
The original article can be found at The News.
Tagged under: arrested, booked, brothel, case, city police, Crime, Crime News, Hafizabad, Investigations, pakistan criminal check, raided, The News


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[Lesson 18] << [CONTENTS] >> [Lesson 20]
First of all, start a new project in Visual Basic 2012 and name it with any name you like. Here I am just using the name Web Browser. Change the name of Form1 to MyWebBrowser and the text property to Web Browser and set its size property to 640,480. Next, you need to add an engine so that your web browser can connect to the Internet, and this very engine is the WebBrowser control, located on the Toolbox on the left side, set the size property to 600,400. Next, drag a text box and place it at the top of the WebBrowser control, this will be the address bar where the user can enter the URL. Lastly, place a command button beside the text box and label it as Go and change its name to Go as well. The design interface is shown below:
The code for the web browser is surprisingly simple, it is only a single line code! Double click on the Go button and key in the following code:
Public Class Form1
Private Sub Go_Click(ByVal sender As System.Object, ByVal e As System.EventArgs) Handles Button1.Click
End Sub
End Class
Now run the the program , type in any URL and click the Go button. You will be able to browse any web page you want.
Figure 19.2: The Runtime Interface
[Lesson 18] << [CONTENTS] >> [Lesson 20]


text:
Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
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A Washington Post article told readers that the 2.9 percent GDP growth reported for the third quarter made it more likely the Fed would raise interest rates at its December meeting. Part of its story is that inflation is accelerating.
"Inflation remains below the Fed's target rate of 2 percent but is creeping closer to that level."
Actually, the opposite is the case. The report (Appendix Table A) showed that the core personal consumption expenditure deflator increased at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter. That is down from 2.1 percent in the first quarter and 1.8 percent in the second quarter.Add a comment
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Alan Reynolds had a column insisting that the U.S. need not fear trade agreements impact on the United States labor market. The context is an argument that the presidential candidates are wrong to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The piece argues that trade agreements have not led to increased trade deficits and that imports from China really have not had much impact on the manufacturing sector in the U.S. His argument doesn't quite fit the data.
The piece lays out the basic argument in its subhead:
"If trade agreements are so lousy, why are our largest deficits with countries that lack a U.S. trade deal?"
It then notes that the United States largest trade deficits are with China and Japan and that we have trade deals with neither. This might be a good rhetorical point at the Wall Street Journal, but it has nothing to do with the issue at hand. The question is the direction of change following an agreement. While the data on this point is not entirely conclusive, there is evidence that deficits have generally increased with countries following the implementation of trade deals.
To take some prominent examples, the U.S. went from a modest trade surplus with Mexico in 1993, before NAFTA went into effect, to a deficit of more than $60 billion in 2015. It went from a trade deficit of $13.2 billion with South Korea in 2011, the year before a trade deal went into effect, to a deficit of $28.3 billion in 2015.
It is also important to note that the composition of trade is likely to shift against U.S. manufacturing as a result of trade deals. These deals are quite explicitly designed to increase payments from other countries for licensing fees and royalties to U.S. pharmaceutical, entertainment, and software companies. The more these countries are forced to pay Pfizer for drugs and Disney for Mickey Mouse, the less money they have to spend on U.S. manufactured goods. In other words, the gains for these companies from trade deals imply larger trade deficits in other areas like manufactured goods.Add a comment
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The Social Security scare story is a long established Washington ritual. Bloomberg news decided to bring it out again in time for Halloween. The basic story is that the Social Security trust fund is projected to face a shortfall in less than two decades. This means that unless Congress appropriates additional revenue, the program is projected to only be able to pay a bit more than 80 percent of scheduled benefits.
This much is not really in dispute. The question is how much should we be worried about this projected shortfall and what should we do about it. Bloomberg's answer to the first question is that we should be very worried. It goes through the list of potential fixes and implies that all would be difficult or impossible.
I will just take one potential fix, which is raising the payroll tax by 2.58 percentage points to cover the projected shortfall. Bloomberg tells us:
"...it's doubtful that the American public would accept such jarring changes."
That's an interesting political assessment. It would be worth knowing the basis for this assertion. We had comparably jarring changes in the form of Social Security tax increases in the decades of 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s. There was no massive tax revolt against any of these tax increases; what has convinced Bloomberg that we can never again have a comparable increase in the payroll tax?
A piece of evidence suggesting that tax increases necessary to support Social Security might be politically viable is the fact that few people even noticed the 2.0 percentage point increase in the payroll tax at the start of 2013 when the payroll tax holiday ended. This was at a time when the labor market was still very weak from the recession and wages had been stagnant for more than a decade. (A survey conducted for the National Academy for Social Insurance also found that people were willing to pay higher taxes to support the scheduled level of Social Security benefits.)
Given this history and evidence, Bloomberg's claim that the public won't tolerate the sort of tax increases necessary to fully fund Social Security looks like an unsupported assertion.
The other point on this topic is that economists usually believe that workers care first and foremost about their after-tax wage, not the tax rate. The Social Security trustees project that real before-tax wages will rise on average by more than 50 percent over the next three decades. By comparison, the tax increase needed to fully fund Social Security seems relatively small, as shown below.
Source: Social Security trustees report, 2015 and author's calculations.
Most workers have not seen their wages increase as much as the average wage over the last four decades since a disproportionate share went to those at top. These are people like CEOs, Wall Street traders, and doctors and other highly paid professionals. Workers stand to lose much more in terms of after-tax income if this upward redistribution continues over the next three decades than they would from the "jarring" Social Security tax increase that Bloomberg feels the need to warn us about.
So, of course people could get really worried about Social Security, as Bloomberg wants, or they can focus on the upward redistribution which will have far more impact on their well-being and that of their children. (Yes, this is the topic of my new book, Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer, which can be downloaded for free.)Add a comment
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The New York Times had a major adventure in fantasy land when it ran a front page article asserting that the problem with the health care exchanges under the Affordable Care Act is that the penalties have not been large enough to coerce people into getting health care insurance. The begins by telling readers:
"The architects of the Affordable Care Act thought they had a blunt instrument to force people — even young and healthy ones — to buy insurance through the law's online marketplaces: a tax penalty for those who remain uninsured.
"It has not worked all that well, and that is at least partly to blame for soaring premiums next year on some of the health law's insurance exchanges."
The piece then explains that many people are opting not to buy insurance and instead pay the penalty.
The problem with this line of argument for fans of reality is that the number of uninsured has actually fallen by more than had been projected at the time the law was passed. This is in spite of the fact that many states were allowed to opt out of the Medicare expansion by a 2012 Supreme Court decision making expansion optional. (It was mandatory in the law passed by Congress.)
It is not difficult to find the evidence that the number of uninsured has fallen more than projected. In March of 2012, the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Tax Committee projected that there would be 32 million uninsured non-elderly people in 2015. Estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation put the actual number at just under 29 million. In other words, three million more people were getting insured as of last year (our most recent data) than had been projected before most of the ACA took effect.
So, if more people are getting insured than had been expected, how could the penalties have been a failure? I leave that one for the folks at the NYT responsible for this front page story.
I will add one other item in this story worth correcting. The piece includes a quote from Joseph J. Thorndike, the director of the tax history project at Tax Analysts, telling readers:
"If it [the mandate] were effective, we would have higher enrollment, and the population buying policies in the insurance exchange would be healthier and younger."
While we do care whether the people in the exchanges are healthy, it doesn't matter if they are young. In fact, healthy older people are far more profitable to insurers than healthy young people since their premiums are on average three times as high. There is a slight skewing against the young in the structure of premiums, but this has little consequence for the costs of the system.
As a practical matter, the people signing up on the exchanges are probably somewhat less healthy than had been expected, but this is largely because more people are getting insurance through employers than had been expected. The people who get insurance through their employers are more healthy than the population as a whole, since for the most part they are healthy enough to be working full-time jobs.Add a comment
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The coverage of the new law in New York state, which would prohibit the short-term renting of whole apartments in New York City, has been difficult to understand. It presents as competing claims that it would increase the supply of affordable housing in New York City and that it will allow hotels to raise their fees. (This Washington Post piece is an excellent example.) Actually, it will likely do both.
The basic story is that the city has a large number of units that are subject to some form of rent control. The purpose is to keep these units affordable for people who don't work on Wall Street. This purpose is defeated if it is possible for either the landlord or tenant to rent out the unit through a service like Airbnb. If the landord is going the Airbnb route then it removes a unit of otherwise affordable housing from the market. If the tenant is going the Airbnb route then they are taking advantage of rent control to make a profit on arbitrage.
This is also bad news for the hotel industry, since people who might have otherwise stayed in hotels will instead stay in Airbnb units, thereby lowering occupancy rates and putting downward pressure on hotel prices. Therefore, there is absolutely nothing contradictory about the argument this measure will both increase the supply of affordable housing and benefit the hotel industry.
The long-run story may be somewhat different. In the long-run the construction of hotels is responsive to demand. If there is a high vacancy rate in the city's hotels, there will be fewer hotels built in future years. This will leave more land for the construction of apartments and other uses. In that case, the restriction on Airbnb rentals may not ultimately lead to an increase in the number of affordable housing units in the city (a financial transactions tax would be more effective), but is perfectly reasonable to believe that in the short-term this restriction on Airbnb rentals will both increase the supply of affordable housing units and benefit the hotel industry.Add a comment
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The usually excellent radio show This American Life may have misled listeners in its discussion of NAFTA and trade this week. The piece misrepresents both some of the key issues on trade and also economists' attitudes towards trade deals.
On the key issues, the piece notes that deals like NAFTA have led to job losses. It uses the figure of 700,000 jobs. It then compares this to the gains to the economy that are projected from lower tariff barriers and therefore lower priced goods.
What this discussion leaves out of the picture is the fact that the jobs lost are disproportionately for non-college educated workers. This puts downward pressure on the wages of non-college educated workers more generally as the displaced workers crowd into retail, services, and other sectors of the economy. So it is not just the 700,000 displaced workers who suffer as a result of this pattern of trade, it is non-college educated workers more generally who see their wages fall as a result of the deal.
This issue of wage inequality is important to remember when the segment tells listeners:
"In fact, there's this survey that the University of Chicago did where they asked all these economists all across the political spectrum, are Americans better off, on average, because of NAFTA? 95% said yes. 5% said they were unsure."
This might be taken as meaning that nearly all economists think that NAFTA benefited the country. Whether or not this is true, that is not the question they answered. This question asks the economists whether American "on average" are better off because of NAFTA. The question does not ask about distribution. This means that if NAFTA gave Bill Gates $100 billion and cost the rest of the country $99 billion, then the correct answer to this question is that NAFTA made the country on average better off. Even economists who think NAFTA was bad policy might think that it led to gains on average.Add a comment
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Just kidding. Actually, insurance costs have slowed sharply in the years since the Affordable Care Act was passed, but it is unlikely many readers of the NYT would know this. Instead, it has focused on the large increase (not levels) in premium costs for the relatively small segment of the population insured on the exchanges. In keeping with this pattern, it gives us a front page piece telling readers about the 25 percent average increase in premiums facing people on the exchange this year. There are two points to keep in mind on this issue.
First, the focus on premiums is exclusively on the relatively small segment of the population getting insurance through the exchanges and specifically through the exchanges managed through the federal government. According to the latest numbers, 12.7 million people are now getting insurance through the exchanges (roughly 4.0 percent of the total population). This article refers to the premiums being paid by the 9.6 million people insured through the federally managed exchange (3.0 percent of the total population). Many states, such as California, have well run exchanges that have been more successful in keeping cost increases down.
There are two reasons that costs on the exchanges have been rising rapidly. The first is that insurers probably priced their policies too low initially. Even with the increases this year premium prices are still lower than had been expected in 2010 when the law was passed. In fact, there has been a sharp slowing in the pace of health care cost growth in the last six years. While not all of this was due to the ACA, it was undoubtedly a factor in this slowdown. In the years from 1999 to 2010, health care costs per insured person rose at an average annual rate of 5.7 percent. In the years from 2010 to 2015 costs per insured person rose at an average rate of just 2.3 percent.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and author's calculations.
The other reason that premiums on the exchanges have risen rapidly is that more people are stiill getting insurance through employers than had been expected. The people who get insurance through employers tend to be healthier on average than the population as a whole. The Obama administration expected that more employers would stop providing insurance, sending their workers to get insurance on the exchanges. Since they have continued to provide insurance, the mix of people getting insurance through the exchanges is less healthy than had been expected.
Note that this has nothing to do with the "young invincible" story that had been widely touted in the years leading up to the ACA. The problem is not that healthy young people are not signing up. The problem is simply that healthy people of all ages are getting their insurance elsewhere. The overall percentage of the population getting insured is higher than projected, not lower as the young invincible silliness would imply.
Robert Salzberg reminds me that the vast majority of people buying insurance in the exchanges get subsidies. For most people these subsidies will fully cover these cost increases. Even after the increases noted in this NYT article, almost 80 percent of the people buying insurance in the exchanges will be able to get a plan for less than $100 per month.Add a comment
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We continue to see a steady drumbeat of news stories and opinion pieces about the problem of men, and especially less-educated men, in the modern economy. The pieces always start with the fact that large numbers of prime-age men (ages 25–54) have dropped out of the labor force. The latest entry is a NYT column by Susan Chira that highlighted recent research showing that a large percentage of men who are not in the labor force are in poor health and frequent users of pain medication.
While this is interesting and useful research, it is unlikely that it explains the decline in employment among prime-age men. The reason, as I (along with Jared Bernstein) continually point out, is that there has been a similar drop in the employment rates of prime-age women since 2000.
The issue here should be straightforward. If we see drops in employment rates for both prime-age men and women, then it is not likely that they will be explained by problems that are unique to men. More likely, the problems stem from the overall state of the economy. In other words, the problem is with the people who design policy, not with the men who have dropped out of the workforce.
This doesn't mean that non-employed men are not facing real problems. Undoubtedly many are, although the extent to which these problems are the result of their unemployment or a cause will often not be clear. Nonetheless, steps that can improve public health will be a good thing, but the better place to look to solve the problem of unemployment is Washington.Add a comment
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Yes, that is what he advocated in this column calling on people to vote for Hillary Clinton and Republican members of Congress. The Republicans are a party of climate deniers. Perhaps Samuelson doesn't know this, but who cares. He urged the readers of his column to support a party that denies well-established science on climate change.Add a comment
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By Lara Merling and Dean Baker
The Peter Peterson-Washington Post deficit hawk gang keep trying to scare us in cutting Social Security and Medicare. If we don't cut these programs now, then at some point in the future we might have to cut these program or RAISE TAXES.
There are many good reasons not to take the advice of the deficit hawks, but the most immediate one is that our economy is suffering from a deficit that is too small, not too large. The point is straight forward, the economy needs more demand, which we could get from larger budget deficits. More demand would lead to more output and employment. It would also cause firms to invest more, which would make us richer in the future.
The flip side in this story is that because we have not been investing as much as we would in a fully employed economy, our potential level of output is lower today than if we had remained near full employment since the downturn in 2008. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential GDP in 2016 is down by 10.5 percent (almost $2.0 trillion) from the level it had projected for 2016 back in 2008, before the downturn.
This is real money, over $6,200 per person. But if we want to have a little fun, we can use a tactic developed by the deficit hawks. We can calculate the cost of austerity over the infinite horizon. This is a simple story. We just assume that we will never get back the potential GDP lost as a result of the weak growth of the last eight years. Carrying this the lost 10.5 percent of GDP out to the infinite future and using a 2.9 percent real discount rate gives us $172.94 trillion in lost output. This is the size of the austerity tax for all future time. It comes to more than $500,000 for every person in the country.
By comparison, we can look at the projected Social Security shortfall for the infinite horizon. According to the most recent Social Security Trustees Report, this comes to $32.1 trillion. (Almost two thirds of this occurs after the 75-year projection period.) Undoubtedly, many deficit hawks hope that people would be scared by this number. But compared to the austerity tax imposed by the deficit hawks, it doesn't look like a big deal.
Source: Social Security Trustees Report and Author's Calculations.Add a comment
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Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker and private equity billionaire Peter Peterson had a NYT column this morning complaining that not enough attention is being paid to the national debt. The piece uses wrong-headed economics and xenophobia to try to scare readers into backing their austerity agenda.
On the economic side, it implies that the prospect of a rising debt to GDP ratio implies an imminent crisis.
"Yes, this country can handle the nearly $600 billion federal deficit estimated for 2016. But the deficit has grown sharply this year, and will keep the national debt at about 75 percent of the gross domestic product, a ratio not seen since 1950, after the budget ballooned during World War II.
"Long-term, that continued growth, driven by our tax and spending policies, will create the most significant fiscal challenge facing our country. The widely respected Congressional Budget Office has estimated that by midcentury our debt will rise to 140 percent of G.D.P., far above that in any previous era, even in times of war."
There are several points to be made here. First the ratio of debt service to GDP is currently just 0.8 percent. (This is net of interest payments rebated by the Federal Reserve Board.) This is near a post-war low. By comparison the ratio was over 3.0 percent in the early and mid-1990s. In other words, the reality is the exact opposite of what Volcker and Peterson claim, the burden of the debt on the economy is unusually low.
Second, if interest rates rise precipitously, which they imply will happen for unexplained reasons, we can always buy back the debt at large discounts, thereby reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. This would be an absolutely pointless move, but if distinguished people who can get columns in the NYT think the debt-to-GDP ratio is important, it can be done to humor them.
Finally, the widely respected Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has repeatedly been wrong in predicting that interest rates will rise. (They also seriously over-estimated the cost of the Affordable Care Act and health care more generally.) Ever since 2010 CBO has projected that interest rates will bounce back to pre-recession levels. Each time they have been shown wrong as interest rates remained low.
The reason for the low rates is the weak level of demand in the economy. In this context, the deficit is a good thing and a bigger deficit would be better. It would generate more demand, output, and employment. It would also make us richer in the future since at higher levels of output firms invest more. Also, many workers who are out of the workforce for long periods of time can end up permanently unemployable.
As a result of the low deficits and weak demand in the post-recession years the widely respected Congressional Budget Office estimates that the economy's potential GDP in 2016 is almost 10 percent smaller (almost $2 trillion) than the potential it had projected for 2016 before the crash in 2008. This "austerity tax" is costing the country $6,200 per person in lost output. For some reason, Volcker and Peterson would have us ignore this huge and growing burden that the country now faces as a result of a sustained period of weak demand and instead concern ourselves with the improbable scenario they paint in their piece.Add a comment
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The Washington Post had an interesting piece about Iclusig, a cancer drug that now sells for almost $200,000 a year. The piece discussed the pricing pattern for cancer drugs. It noted that the pricing of Iclusig did not follow the normal pattern, with the price soaring as its range of approved uses was limited by the Food and Drug Administration.
While it presented this as evidence of this not being a normal market, the piece never made the obvious point: the drug market is certainly not normal because the government grants patent monopolies and other forms of protection. Without these government granted monopolies almost all drugs would be cheap. Certainly none would sell for anything close to $200,000. While it is necessary to pay for research, they are other mechanisms that would almost certainly be more efficient and less prone to corruption than patent monopolies.Add a comment
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At the debate last night, moderator Chris Wallace challenged both candidates on the question of cutting Social Security and Medicare. The implication is that the country is threatened by the prospect of out of control government deficits. The question was misguided on several grounds.
First, as a matter of law the Social Security program can only spend money that is in the trust fund. This means that, unless Congress changes the law, the program can never be a cause of runaway deficits.
Second, it is important to note that the size of the projected shortfall in the Medicare Part A program (the portion funded by its own tax) has fallen sharply in the Obama years. The shortfall for the 75-year planning horizon was projected at 3.53 percentage points of payroll in 2009, the first year of the Obama presidency. It has now fallen by 80 percent to just 0.73 percent of payroll. This reduction is due to a sharp slowdown in the projected growth of health care costs. Some of this predates the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but some of the slowdown is undoubtedly attributable to the impact of the ACA.
Anyhow, the implication of Wallace's question, that these programs are somehow out of control and require some near term fix, is not supported by the data. We will have to make changes to maintain full funding for Social Security, but there is no urgency to this issue.
On the more general point of deficits, the country's problem since the crash in 2008 has been deficits that are too small, not too large. The main factor holding back the economy has been a lack of demand, not a lack of supply. Deficits create more demand, either directly through government spending or indirectly through increased consumption. If we had larger deficits in recent years we would have seen more GDP, more jobs, and, due to a tighter labor market, higher wages.
The problem of too small deficits is not just a short-term issue. A smaller economy means less investment in new plant and equipment and research. This reduces the economy's capacity in the future. In the same vein, high rates of unemployment cause people to permanently drop out of the labor force, reducing our future labor supply if these people become unemployable. (Having unemployed parents is also very bad news for the kids who will have worse life prospects.)
The Congressional Budget Office now puts potential GDP at about 10 percent lower for 2016 than its projection from 2008, before the recession. Much of this drop is due the decision to run smaller deficits and prevent the economy from reaching its potential level of output. We can think of this loss of potential output as a "austerity tax." It currently is at close to $2 trillion a year or more than $6,000 for every person in the country.
It is unfortunate that Wallace chose to devote valuable debate time to a non-problem while ignoring the huge problem of needless unemployment and lost output due to government deficits that are too small.Add a comment
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Binyamin Appelbaum had an interesting interview in the NYT with Boston Fed bank president Eric Rosengren. In the interview he argued that it was important to keep the unemployment rate from falling too low. In a response to Appelbaum saying "low unemployment sounds like a good thing," Rosengren said:
"During periods when the unemployment rate has gotten to the low 4s, we haven't stayed there for a real long time. And that's because we do start seeing wages picking up, and we do see prices start picking up, and we do see asset prices picking up. In that environment we start to tighten and when we tighten we're not so good at getting it exactly right.
"The problem is the dynamics of how firms and individuals start thinking about the tightening process. Those dynamics make it very hard to calibrate the monetary policy process. People understand tightening. But convincing them of how much you're going to tighten and that you're going to hit it exactly right — particularly given that you haven't hit it exactly right in the past, it's pretty tough to convince people of that. Not surprisingly, they start worrying about: "Well, they're starting to tighten, they may tighten too much. What do I do? I start pulling in in terms of my own spending." Firms start pulling in, saying, "We want to be prepared in case they don't get this quite right." Those kinds of actions — which are very hard to predict, and individually everyone behaves a little differently — in aggregate, cause a problem where we sometimes slow down the economy more than we intend.
"So you don't see instances where we go from 4.2 percent to 4.7 or 5 percent and level off. What you actually see is when we start tightening we end up with a recession."
Actually, we have very little experience of the unemployment rate falling to the low fours in the last 45 years. The one time it did fall that low was in the late 1990s. In that period, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent in April of 1998. The economy experienced almost three years subsequent years of solid growth, with almost no uptick in inflation, until the collapse of the stock bubble threw it into recession in March of 2001.
The unemployment rate was in the mid-fours in 2007, hitting 4.4 percent in March and May of that year. There was little increase in the inflation rate, but a collapse of the housing bubble did throw the economy into a recession at the end of the year.
In short, there is little evidence of wage price inflation associated with low unemployment rates that Rosengren mentions. There is an issue of asset price inflation (i.e. bubbles) but this has little direct relationship with the unemployment rate. In the case of the housing bubble, prices peaked in the summer of 2006 and were already falling rapidly by the spring of 2007 when unemployment hit its low. The bubble began to form as early was 1996 and with prices rising rapidly in 2002 and 2003, when the unemployment rate was at its recession peak and the economy was still shedding jobs.Add a comment
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The Washington Post keeps pushing the "hard to get good help" line, this time in reference to China. It told readers how the country is ending its one-child policy, but that many families are likely to still decide not to have more than one kid. The piece then told readers:
"That's a problem for China. The people born in Mao's era are growing old, and there will be far fewer people of working age to bear the economic burden."
Actually, the declining ratio of workers to retirees is likely to have relatively little impact on China's economy since the impact of even modest rates of productivity growth swamps the impact of demographics as third grade arithmetic students everywhere know.
It is striking to see the fears of running out of workers co-exist with the regular stories in the media about robots taking all the jobs. This shows the unbelievable bankruptcy of economic debate in the United States that these two directly opposing concerns exist side by side among people who consider themselves knowledgeable about economic policy.
Note: correction made, thanks heropass.Add a comment
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Yes, what else is new? Today's column highlights the growth in debt-to-GDP ratios in both the public and private sectors in the last decade. There are three points worth making on this issue.
The first one is that Samuelson's concern, as noted in the headline, is that the growth of debt will leave us open to another financial crisis. The problem here is that it goes along with the myth that the financial crisis was something that sneaked up on us that no one could detect. In fact, the financial crisis, was a crisis because a bubble was moving the real economy. The housing bubble was driving well over $1 trillion in demand through its impact on residential construction (which was a record high as a share of GDP) and consumption, as people spent based on bubble generated housing equity.
The surge in both areas was easy to see for anyone who looks at the data. It was an astounding failure of policy makers (think Alan Greenspan and the Fed) that they somehow either didn't see the bubble or didn't realize the importance of its collapse to the economy.
This matters because it is wrong to imagine that a potential economy wrecking bubble can grow without any sentient beings seeing it. The policymakers and economists who totally missed the housing bubble have a stake in pretending that it was all very difficult, but their story is not true. It was simple, they just chose not to look at the data and think for themselves.Add a comment
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The NYT had an editorial highlighting new work by Alan Krueger that examined prime-age men (ages 25–54) who are not working or looking for work. The work shows that 40 percent of the men who have dropped out of the labor force report feeling pain that keeps them from taking jobs. It reports that 44 percent report taking pain medication the previous day. Both Krueger and the editorial make it clear that the causation could go in both directions.
While this is interesting work, implying that the problem of people dropping out of the labor force is a story about men is seriously misleading. Both prime-age men and women have been increasingly dropping out of the labor force in the last 15 years. The falloff since the peak year of 2000 is somewhat sharper for men than women, but it is important to note that labor force participation rates had been rising for women prior to 2000 and were almost universally projected to continue to rise. The employment rate for prime-age men fell by 4.1 percentage points from 2000 to 2015, while the employment rate for prime-age women fell by 3.2 percentage points. (Employment rates are a cleaner measure, since the decision to look for work, and therefore stay in the labor force, is affected by eligibility for unemployment benefits.)
The reason this matters is that clearly the employment rate is dropping for reasons not related to any behavior or conditions unique to men since the drop has occurred for women as well. The more obvious source of the problem lies with the people (disproportionately men) designing economic policy.Add a comment
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Many people are aware of the increase the number of people insured as a result of the Affordable Care Act. Some also know about the slower rate of growth of health care costs. (Yes folks, that is slower growth in costs, not a decline — no one promised a miracle.) Anyhow, it is worth putting these two together to see the pattern in health care costs per insured person under Obamacare. Here's the picture.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
As can be seen, there is a sharp slowing in the rate of growth of health care costs per person in 2010, just as the Affordable Care Act is passed into law. In the years from 1999 to 2010, health care costs per insured person rose at an average annual rate of 5.7 percent. In the years from 2010 to 2015 costs per insured person rose at an average rate of just 2.3 percent.
Undoubtedly, the ACA is not the full explanation for the slowdown in cost growth, but it certainly contributed to the slowdown. Furthermore, as a political matter, does anyone doubt for a second that if cost growth had accelerated that the ACA would be given the blame even if there was no evidence that it was a major factor?
Anyhow, this is a good story. It doesn't mean anyone should be happy with our health care system as it is now. We pay ridiculous sums for prescription drugs that would be cheap in a free market. Our doctors are paid twice as much as their counterparts in other wealthy countries. And, the insurance industry is a major source of needless waste. But the health care system is much better today than it was when President Obama took office, and that is a big deal.
Note: I realize that some folks are getting the wrong graph with this post. The correct one (which shows up on my computers) is an index of health care costs per insured person with 1999 set equal to 100. I have no idea where the other graph came from, but we will investigate.Add a comment
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I respect Jason Furman, the chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. I think he is doing a great job in this position. He has called attention to many of the ways in which the government intervenes in the market, like professional licensing (think doctors), intellectual property rules (patents and copyrights), and other restrictions are acting to redistribute income upward. He has also attacked silly myths, like the idea that workers in the U.S. are dropping out of the labor market because of our generous disability program and other benefits. (In a recent report, Jason noted that the U.S. has among the least generous welfare supports of any OECD country, yet it ranks near the bottom in labor force participation rates for prime-age [ages 25–54] men.)
Anyhow, in spite of my respect, I feel the need to call him out on trying to pull the wool over folks' eyes in a recent column. The column touts many of the positive measures (in my view) to help people at the middle and the bottom under the Obama administration, such as expansion of the earned income tax credit, the child tax credit, and most importantly the Affordable Care Act which has extended health insurance coverage to 20 million people and allows people with serious health conditions to get insurance at the same price as every one else. These measures have been paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy. This is all very positive and the Obama administration deserves credit for these measures, even if I would have liked to see it go much further.
However, the reason my BS detector went off is that Furman tried to claim we had turned the corner in some big way on the upward redistribution of income from the last four decades. He tells readers:
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"Partly as a result of these policy changes, the top 1 percent's share of income after taxes was 12 percent in 2013 (the most recent year for which data are available), well below its 2007 peak and roughly equal to its share in 1997."
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Bloomberg decided to get into the Halloween spirit by warning our kids about the national debt. The piece is headlined "a child born today comes into the world with more debt than you." Bloomberg was going to headline the piece, "kids worried that universe is closer to destruction than when parents were born," but they decided it would be too scary.
The highlight of the piece is a graph showing the rise in the amount of debt per person over the last three and half decades along with the money graph:
"Under current law, U.S. inflation-adjusted debt per person is expected to reach the $66,000 milestone by April 2026, based on Bloomberg calculations of Congressional Budget Office and Census Bureau data."
It adds that the debt would be considerably larger as a result of Donald Trump's tax cuts and slightly larger as a result of Hillary Clinton's tax and spending programs.
Okay folks, you should be able to guess why this Bloomberg piece is a silly joke.
That's right, it only takes the debt side of the ledger. It's almost impossible to exaggerate how absurd this is. It is an absurdity that no business would ever engage in. I suspect that Microsoft has much more debt than the restaurant down my street. If Bloomberg business coverage was like this piece it would be highlighting Microsoft's massive debt. Furthermore it would be warning that Microsoft's debt is likely to be even larger in a decade. Fortunately Bloomberg doesn't report on Microsoft this way because it has serious business reporters. They would report on Microsoft's debt in relation to its assets and its debt service in relation to its revenue or profits.
Bloomberg could report on the government debt in this way, but it wouldn't have the same effect for Halloween. If it reported on debt in this way, then it would be pretty obvious and totally non-scary that our per capita debt rises through time. Our per capita income rises through time. So what?
And, if Bloomberg cared about actually providing information on the burden of the debt it would be reported on the ratio of debt service to GDP. Currently this is around 0.8 percent of GDP (net of money refunded by the Fed to the Treasury), which is near a post-war low. By comparison, debt service was over 3.0 percent of GDP in the early 1990s when the parents of today's kids were born.
It's also worth noting the absurdity that in the Bloomberg Halloween debt story our children would be better off if we eliminated public schools and funding for their education altogether. After all, this way we could reduce their debt. In fact, they would be even better off if we stopped spending to maintain and improve infrastructure. Hey, who needs airports, roads, bridges, access to the Internet? Let's get the debt down!Add a comment
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The reason for asking is that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has recently put out some very pessimistic projections for Social Security. These projections got some attention from the media because they were considerably more pessimistic than the projections from the Social Security Trustees, implying a somewhat larger gap between projected benefit payments and projected revenue.
While most of the attention was on the differences in the program's finances, what actually would mean more to most people is the difference in projected wage growth between the two programs. The CBO projections show a considerably slower path of wage growth than the Social Security trustees projections.
The main reason for this difference is that CBO projects that wage income will be further redistributed upward over the next decade, while the trustees project a small reversal of some of the upward redistribution of the last three decades. While the share of wage income that went over the taxable cap (currently $118,500) was just 10 percent in 1980, this had risen to 18 percent by 2015. This is one of the main reasons that Social Security's finances look worse now than had been projected three decades ago.
CBO projects that the share of wage income going to those earning above the cap (@ 6.0 percent of workers) will increase to more than 22 percent by 2026. This worsens the finances of the program, since it is not collected taxes on this money, but more importantly it means that most workers will see little wage growth over the next decade. The figure below shows average real wage growth projected by CBO for the next decade (Figure 2-9 from the Budget and Economic Outlook) and the average for the bottom 94 percent of wage earners.
Source: Congressional Budget Office and author's calculations.
The CBO projections imply that real wages will rise by an average of 9.0 percent over the next decade for bottom 94 percent of workers. The upward redistribution projected by CBO would cost the typical worker just over 4.4 percent of their wages. This means that for a worker who would otherwise be earning $50,000 in 2026 (in 2016 dollars), the upward redistribution projected by CBO will mean a loss of wages of $2,200, so that they would only be earning $47,800.
As a practical matter, most workers are likely to do considerably worse under the CBO scenario. If past trends continue, the workers closer to the taxable cap (e.g. the 90th percentile worker) are likely to see somewhat higher wage growth than workers near the middle and bottom of the wage distribution. In other words, the CBO projections imply that most workers will see little or no wage growth over the next decade as the overwhelming majority of wage gains go to those at the top of the income distribution.
This should be of great concern to Hillary Clinton since she has committed herself to pushing through an agenda that ensures most workers share in the benefits of wage growth. The CBO projections imply that this is clearly not the case and the projected upward redistribution of income will matter much more to workers' living standards than any conceivable increase in Social Security taxes — even if the media will do their best to ensure that the public only hears about the taxes.Add a comment


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What Is Six Sigma Process Improvement? Pivotal Resources, Inc.
1 - 2 2 When your business is healthy, it is difficult to behave as if you are in a crisis. That is why one of the toughest parts of managing is to recognize the need for change and make it happen while you still have a chance. - Bill Gates
1 - 3 3 Process Management Why is it important?
1 - 4 4 Process: A series of tasks or activities whereby one thing (the input) is changed or used to create something else (the output) Processes Are Everywhere
1 - 5 5 Many Factors Affect Processes Customer requirements change New suppliers are used Technology is developed Competitors enter the market Leadership changes New employees are hired Products are launched
1 - 6 6 Process Inefficiency Is Costly Internal Failures Labor and material wasted by rework and rebilling Hidden Factories (unreported, ad hoc processes designed to work around the problem) Opportunity cost of time spent on defects Carrying costs of extra inventory required to allow for scrap and rework External Failures Warranty repairs and returns Customer service expense Lost sales (both immediate and future) Negative word-of-mouth Appraisal and Inspection Inspection Testing Quality audit Management of workers Initial and maintenance cost of testing equipment
1 - 7 7 Variation Affects Customers Do customers remember your average performance? or Do they remember their individual experience? Call Center Waiting Times Customer Requirement is 60 seconds or less
1 - 8 8 End-to-End Effectiveness is Key
1 - 9 9 The Six Sigma Solution
1 - 10 10 Six Sigma Defined A Measure to define the capability of a process A Goal for improvement that reaches near-perfection A System of Management to achieve lasting business leadership and top performance
1 - 11 11 A Measure and Goal
1 - 12 12 A System of Management… Customer Focus Process Mgmt Facts & Data
1 - 13 13 …Used To Control Process Variation
1 - 14 14 Integrating Tools That Work
1 - 15 15 Process Excellence Strategies
1 - 17 17 Whos Implementing Six Sigma? GE Cisco Systems Motorola Allied Signal Principal Financial DuPont Uniprise McKesson/HBOC Bombardier Sun Microsystems Sears 3M Cendant Mortgage Mt. Carmel Hospitals Starwood Hotels Sun Microsystems JP Morgan/Chase Kodak Cisco Systems Johnson & Johnson American Express Sony Callaway Golf Black & Decker Ford Federal Express Bank of America Allstate Insurance And many others…
1 - 18 18 Six Sigma Project Examples Helping Customers Pay A local and long distance telephone service provider was concerned about the amount of uncollectable accounts. Write- offs were costing the company over $3 million a year. A Six Sigma improvement team was formed to analyze the problem. After gathering initial data on the process and digging into root causes, three major contributors were identified: 1) lack of accountability for account reps; 2) a lack of procedures or training on how to deal with delinquent accounts; and 3) lengthy dispute resolution cycle time. The process improvements implemented included a primary customer contact system; revision, documentation and training in the collections process; and a cross functional buddy system to address customer problems more effectively and efficiently. Savings in the first few months totaled nearly $100,000. With the initial success so clear, the team has continued its work to further reduce the write-off amount. Developing New Products A telecommunication products company used Six Sigma design techniques to enable greater flexibility and faster turnaround at a key manufacturing facility. At the plant, several specialized products are built on a single production line. Since each customers order may require different circuit boards, the need to avoid retooling was critical. Working through alignment of customer needs, product design and process specifications, retooling was dramatically reduced. The plant was also able to institute parallel processing so that if one area of the line wasnt functioning, work-in-process could be easily rerouted without adding to cycle time. The improvement efforts also examined how information technology interfaces with the plant to meet customer needs. Under the new plant design, customer orders are transmitted electronically to the computer, where virtual design is used to ensure quick response. Altogether, these innovative changes reduced overall cycle time from days to hours, and improved productivity and resource management. Providing a Prompt Answer A credit financing center used a Six Sigma team approach to analyze and improve call center operations. The focus was on two objectives: 1) reducing average call answer time; and 2) increasing the percentage of customer issues and questions resolved in the initial call. The team centralized and simplified the call answering system, cutting average times from 54 seconds to 14 seconds. First Call Resolution jumped from 63% to 83%.
1 - 19 19 Six Sigma Project Examples Sending the Message Faster and Cheaper Every order at a telecommunications service company was being handled the same way. Whether a request for transmission time was for a few minutes or for a dedicated channel, each deal was passed through several levels of review, both technical and legal, before being approved. In addition to impacts on costs and resources used, the delays were very aggravating to the firms customers. A process improvement team measured and analyzed the problem. While the solutions identified were counter to the way we do things at the company, data backed up their definition of the problem and the likely impact of their proposed solution. After 6 months streamlining the review of routine orders, the group documented $1 million in savings. Thinking Outside the Box The spare parts marketing and logistics group for an aerospace manufacturing company was looking for ways to take costs and time out of their service to customers. One major cost element was parts packaging: bulk parts shipments from manufacturing plants were unpacked, placed on warehouse shelves, then picked and repackaged for shipment to customers. By focusing the process design on customer needs and value-adding activities, the spare parts packaging operation was moved from the warehouse to the plants. Packaging material cost savings alone were cut by half-a-million dollars per year. The change also contributed to major improvements in on-time delivery, which have jumped from less than 80% to over 95% in about three years. Giving Credit When Its Due A major corporate credit card company was experiencing a severe problem with excess cycle time for new card applications. A Six Sigma team was chartered to tackle the issue. Looking at defects (applications taking longer than a customers requirement) enabled the group to identify several problem points in their process, including: excessive hand- offs, redundant activities and multiple approval and inspection points. By rethinking the process and challenging existing assumptions, the team was able to get approval for a series of changes in the approval activity. Cycle time from application to mailing of the credit card was cut from a range of 70-120 days down to 42 days. Since the teams goal was 30 days or less, they are continuing with further root cause analysis of factors impacting the process. One of the barriers now recognized is the response time of customers providing information to the credit card company. Working with the customer to reduce their cycletime will be a challengehowever, its considered a reasonable challenge for Six Sigma improvement efforts.
1 - 20 20 Six Sigma Drives Profitability Reported Results From Six Sigma Initiatives (cost savings and revenue gains) GE Capital - $2+ billion Sun Microsystems - $150+ million Federated Department Stores - $30+ million Roche Diagnostics - $4.5+ million Starwood Hotels & Resorts - $25+ million
1 - 21 21 Benefits of Six Sigma Understand & Satisfy Customers More Effectively –Drivers of satisfaction, loyalty, behavior, market share –How are we doing? How can we stay ahead of competitors? Enhance Efficiency –Reduce variation, eliminate errors and rework –Expand internal capacity Drive Profitability –Reduce operational expenses due to errors, rework –Grow market share and share of wallet –Increase revenues Transform Management Thinking –More informed decisions, greater collaboration & focus –Optimize flow of value to customerand gains to shareholders
1 - 22 22 Pivotal Resources The Leader in Organizational Improvement
1 - 23 23 Pivotal Resources History Six Sigma services provided to growing number of firms including Cendant, Sears, Ford, American Express, Starwood Hotels, Sun Microsystems. Focus on practical application and demystifying concepts/tools Pivotal Resources founded with mission of tying diverse organization improvement methods and programs into a coherent approach to building business leadership Product Development & Project Management consulting & training for: Johnson & Johnson, Silicon Graphics, Quantum, Sony Electronics Supply-Chain Management & process ownership consulting & training for Clorox GE Capital launches Six Sigma: Pivotal is primary Vendor/Partner. Implementation consulting, training materials development and Champion, BB & GB training for thousands of GECS professionals worldwide 199819992000 Pivotal consultants apply process improvement, TQM & rational thinking processes to critical business issues at organizations including petrochemical, health care, high tech and consumer products. 1985 - 1992 1994199519961997 1993 Pivotals principals launch process improvement services across the world. Process Improvement and Design/Redesign consulting and training projects for: Auspex Systems, FHP Healthcare, VMX Voice Processing, Read-Rite, Macys West Publication of The Six Sigma Way, presenting Pivotals approach and implementation guidelines for Six Sigma. (Forbes names it #9 of most influential business books of past 20 years). Translated into 15 languages and over 200K copies sold! 2001 Two new books published by McGraw-Hill 2002-3 New clients include Cisco Systems, Callaway Golf, Principal Financial, Federated Department Stores, Carlson Wagonlit, AOL Broadband, Roche Diagnostics. 2004 International office opens in Brighton, England. Asia branch established. Clients include Marks & Spencer, Halifax Bank of Scotland New clients include Wells Fargo, Dal- Tile, Intel and British Petroleum. Pivotal launches two eSigma products: Oaktreean online reference tool and nLighten an online introduction to process improvement.
1 - 24 24 Pivotal Clients (partial list)
1 - 25 25 Pivotal Resources Advantages Expert in Six Sigma and Lean Implementation - Pioneered early Six Sigma methodology -Authored the best selling The Six Sigma Way Proven Ability to Drive Results - Partnered with clients to deliver billions of dollars in benefits - Trained over 20,000 leaders, managers and front line employees World-Class People and Experience - The most experienced Six Sigma professionals (400+ yrs cumulative) - Client list includes some of the worlds most respected companies Delivering the Highest Customer Satisfaction -All services are customized to meet an organizations unique objectives -Our model emphasizes self-sufficiency and establishing change as a core competency Innovative Learning Models and Training Materials - Modular training approach specifically designed for service and transactional businesses -Most comprehensive and highly regarded Six Sigma materials in the industry
1 - 26 26 For more information... United Kingdom Albert House 82 Queens Road Brighton, East Sussex England BN1 3XE 44(0) 1273 711 195 United States 1646 N. California Suite 520 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 800 699 6220 The Most Experienced & Knowledgeable Consultants The Most Innovative & Effective Learning Models The Most Comprehensive Training Materials
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