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4 years ago
Let's start off with the following disclaimer: The title of this post is about as likely to occur as being asked by George Clooney to an all-you-can eat chocolate festival.
Writing a piece about the horrors of swimsuit shopping is about as unique as writing about dieting. And, like dieting, it's doomed to get really boring. Dressing room with circus fun house mirror blah blah blah. Young sales girl who weighs 80 lbs blah blah blah. Spandex blah blah blah. More Spandex blah blah blah. Emotional breakdown blah blah blah. Copious ice cream consumption blah blah blah.
Believe it or not, the swimsuit conundrum hasn't been around since the dawn of time. In classical antiquity, swimming and bathing was done nude. There are Roman murals which show women playing sports and exercising, wearing two-piece suits covering the areas around their breasts and hips, but there is no evidence that they used any kind of clothing for swimming. All classical pictures of swimming show nude swimmers. Everyone cavorted happily. No one cared what they looked like, since mirrors hadn't been invented yet.
At some point in time, the swimsuit industry was invented and all hell broke loose. This was soon followed by the invention of the mirror, the scale, the department store dressing room, and low carb muffins. Women have been ashamed of their bodies ever since. And the hunt has been on for the perfect swimsuit, or failing that, for a swimsuit that has the coverage of a ski suit.
This writer doesn't understand what all the whining is about. She has absolutely no trouble finding a bathing suit that fits perfectly. She chooses one specific body part (right breast, left breast, belly, midriff, butt, back), usually on an annually rotating basis, and finds the suit that perfectly accommodates that one body part. The hell with the rest of the body parts. They are on their own. They just have to wait until it's their year.
But, if one is determined to find that perfect swimsuit and if one reads the women's magazines, especially the ones geared to women who are old enough to remember "How to Stuff A Wild Bikini," one will most likely describe how vertical stripes, ruffles, Spandex, and reflective metal panels can be strategically placed along a garment the size of a place mat, so as to delude anyone into thinking that one hasn't spent the last 10 years celebrating the annual Halloween through Easter Gorgefest.
Unfortunately, about the only thing one ends up with by adding stripes, ruffles, Spandex, and strategically placed reflective metal panels on one's body is turning oneself into a pretty good approximation of a clown car crammed with too many passengers.
So, what's to be done? Some of you will avoid bathing suit shopping by wearing street clothes to the beach. This can be successful only if the clothing is white and you have an ice cream cart with you.
This writer has considered all options and believes that the best solution is to only frequent nude beaches. After all, the nude beach was invented by a woman who got sick and tired of trying on stupid bathing suits. So, hit the nude beach. And don't bring any mirrors along.
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3 years ago
I have, for years, worn swim shorts over my bathing suits. I got the idea from ……men! They are available on Target's website, and I found a great pair of Liz Lange maternity swimshorts at the Goodwill. I just cut out the panty underneath the shorts and they look great. Danskin also makes them. Track shorts also work but are usually too baggy and get waterlogged.
Anyway, I feel more comfortable and confident in my shorts and that makes me want to swim more! Good luck fellow swimmers!!! Kathleen
4 years ago
I am a new widow, so all of a sudden I care allot more about how I look. I have lost 30 lbs. down to a size 12 and still shedding. But the skin is still there. Can I exercise that away at my age, or am I stuck with loose skin? I am 66
Renee, we are born with a crack already! Someone grabbed the surgerical glue! At our age we can't let cracks go!! lol
5 years ago
This is how I solved the problem. I wear a bold tankini on the top with a little bikini bottom then I sewed a knit skirt that falls just above the knees. So I have a designer bathing suit.LOL
Suzy, go onto http://www.qvc.com and look at the Ocean Dream and Fit 4 You swimsuits. Some do look old ladyish, but a couple are really cute. Great coverage. Re the tankini: You do have to make sure you get a large enough top. Buy a brand that allows you to get different sizes for top and bottom.
5 years ago
Fair enough, but the darn tops always rise to the top of my crinkly cleavage!:) Shows a lovely turkey belly in the process. 🙂 Water…darn it would have to be transparent! How to avoid this dilemma Renee? 🙂
Possibly because we have been to one store too many and are "packing". laughing
Also if you don't like yourself in a bathing suit, a nude beach isn't going to help.
I've had issue like that as well. And it's interesting that I posted this swimsuit piece in mid-May and am only now just receiving comments!
5 years ago
Renee, I have just made a comment in respond to your reply. Also have received a conformation of posting. How ever I do not see it posted.
5 years ago
Wow, thank you so much, Rosemee, for the link to the different sort of bathing suits. I've bookmarked it.
I do love this site for all the wonderful information that gets shared!
Interesting idea, putting something over the swimsuit. Or maybe under. Someone really should start designing unswimsuit swimsuits.
We don't have TV. And with massive weight loss I have a shed over my tools. I don't really care what others think because I am healthier but my thighs also have extra skin that needs covering so I am very limited. Not to mention the wings underneath my arms. Why do I feel like I just mentioned a song, laughing. But , for me, I want these areas covered.
The only swimsuits that fit me now are the tankinis in which I can get different sizes for top and bottom. At this point, NO one piece even comes close to fitting me.
Interesting that you say that. There was a company selling swimsuits on QVC the other day. They looked like tennis dresses but in swimsuit fabric. They were actually adorable.
Wow, thanks Vera. I've had a couple interesting adventures on nude beaches, but none of them are what you might think. But if all beaches were nude, we'd never have to worry about swimsuits.
I went to their website and looked at their size charts. Size 14 for a xxxl? Really? I was 304 and now 180 not quite there and It doesn't look like they have anything for those of us who are "almost there". Yes they will make it but most people looking for a suit want one now. Can you give more information for others?
coolibar has swimsuits that are spf safe and cover. I wouldn't wear anything else. I mean who am I really wearing the suit for anyway? ME and I don't need all the sun just to have fun with my kids at 53 years old at the beach.
5 years ago
5 years ago
5 years ago
Renne, you are the best. Thanks for the tips and photos – scary almost Halloween like. I am looking for nude-beaches.Ha, ha ha… I decided not cover even my top and bottom. What's the point of that? I thought. On my personal rating scale which is 10 of 10. I am giving you 11 of 10.
5 years ago
If this catches on we should buy stock in Miracle Suit. Then not only would we look thinner but we'd be richer as their sales triple!
5 years ago
My plan is to wear three of those suits that promise to instantly make you look ten pounds thinner…all at the same time.


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Great location. Rooms are always clean. Staff are some of the friendliest people you will ever meet. They have added a breakfast buffet since our last stay which was nice. Pool area is always imaculant. I apologize I cannot remember her name, but a special shout out to the young lady whose husband is a wildfire firefighter. Super nice and friendly. makes you feel right at home
- Official Description (provided by the hotel):
- Oceanfront, 4-diamond hotel between Sea World and La Jolla, offering jacuzzi suites, honeymoon suites, and family suites. Luxury accommodations and award winning service. A Tripadvisor favorite! Heated oceanfront pool. ... more less
- Reservation Options:
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- Also Known As:
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subset: commoncrawl


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(this is her dominant personality type)
(she also shows elements of this type)
She is an executive and tends to be consistent, reliable, thorough and persevering.
She likes people and is generally comfortable with them. She also likes concrete and focused conversations on everything from trivia to the important topics of the day.
She needs a partner who is devoted to family, sensible with money, responsible with possessions, compassionate, and wants to have detailed and informed conversations.
A few excerpts from her personality test:
- I am willing to take risks to do what I want to do
- I am more analytical and logical than most people
- I have a wide range of interests
Her 6 interests
in her own words...
Wow! It's probably easier to describe someone you've known for only a few hours than it is to describe yourself, at least for me. Ironic because, obviously, who should know me better than I know myself? But, here it goes: I tend to find myself at both ends of the spectrum in terms of being shy and also gregarious and bubbly in my personality. I guess it's all about finding that comfort level, but that typically doesn't take too long. My job requires that I work pretty hard and I pride myself on giving 110% when I am there, so on my days off I like to do the things that I think are fun. I am sort of girl-y, so I enjoy all of the requisite girl-ish activities (shopping and the like), but I like seeing a movie just as much, I LOVE going to plays, checking out some of the District's incredible museums and I'm fine with staying in, too. Cooking is another favorite hobby. I love to cook and share the end result with friends/co-workers. (I should say that my cooking is frequently enjoyable and almost always edible.) I also used to be a writer, so occasionally I'll have a story idea that I like to get down on paper. Most of my writing is just for me, but it, like cooking, provides a creative outlet that my day-to-day life typically doesn't offer. I was the only girl in my house growing up, so between my brothers I have developed a love affair from a distance with sports (in other words, I've never played on a team). I'm no expert and I certainly don't know all of the rules, but I can get wrapped up in the thrill of a big game and like going to sports bars to watch just about any sport. As for a match for me, I would like to be with someone who at the very least has a political opinion, although it doesn't have to be the same as mine. However, sharing my religious beliefs is pretty important to me. I try to take care of myself and would want to be with someone who also assigns a high value to health, not that any of us can be perfect at that all of the time. (It's painful to
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For any questions related to Cvent, feel free to contact our Customer Care team.
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Hadley's Orient Hotel is the oldest continuously operating boutique hotel in Tasmania. Well positioned in Hobart's CBD, the 71-room National Trust listed hotel was first built in 1834, The hotel features a restaurant, bar, and conferencing facilities and is a short walk from the business centre and...
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Greetings Guest!!Dismiss Notice
In order to combat SPAM on the forums, all users are required to have a minimum of 2 posts before they can submit links in any post or thread.
Live content plz.....plz sooner... rather than the 5 minutes u gave us
Discussion in 'UHall' started by Guest, Feb 24, 2008.


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- Books
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- Business and Management
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1 - 2 weeks availability
DescriptionLeaders learn and acquire experience from many places, but ask successful leaders how they became successful; it's usually because they learned from other great leaders. The idea of using an organization's leaders as the keystone of a successful learning strategy might seem obvious, but few groups employ this strategy because they don't know how. It's not something that just happens - unless you're very lucky. So why wouldn't you use experienced leaders to inspire, mentor, coach, and develop other talented leaders to their full potential? Here's the journey of Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD), which created and deployed a leadership development program that relies on all its top leaders (even the CEO) to train other leaders. From BD's success of improved business results, improved communications and strengthened organizational culture, your organization, too, can learn how to build and implement this vital program.
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About AuthorEdward Betof, Ed.D., is a senior fellow and Academic Director of the Executive Program in Workplace Learning Leadership at the Wharton School and Graduate School of Education, University of Pennsylvania. Formerly he was Vice-President and Chief Learning Officer of Becton, Dickinson and Company. Betof has also served as a member of the ASTD Board of Directors, the Conference Bard's Council of Learning, Development, and Organizational Performance.
ContentsCh. 1: Introduction; Ch. 2: Leaders as Teachers - Why it Works?; Ch. 3: How We Learn from Leaders; Ch. 4: Attract, Engage, and Retain Leaders Who Teach; Ch. 5: Orchestrating the Leaders-as-Teachers Change Process; Ch. 6: Preparing Leaders to be Teaching Stars; Ch. 7: Spark Active Learning - Guarantee Winning Presentations; Ch. 8: Nine Keys to Successful Program Management; Ch. 9: Implementing Leaders-as-Teachers Approach in Your Organization; References/Index.
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Rv mods
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Best Fishing Times: 6:01AM to 8:01AM, and 10:14PM to 12:14AM
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|This is a discussion on $5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ flop set OOP within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; 888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 CO: 95.2 BB (VPIP: 14.33, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 303) BTN:
$5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ flop set OOP
888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 95.2 BB (VPIP: 14.33, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.37, Hands: 303)
BTN: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 10.96, PFR: 9.72, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 148)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.50, PFR: 9.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 482)
UTG: 138.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG+1: 48 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP: 138.4 BB (VPIP: 5.71, PFR: 5.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
MP+1: 108 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♣ J♦
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 1 BB, fold, CO raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.6 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB
Flop: (13 BB, 3 players) 6♣ A♠ J♥
Hero checks, MP+1 checks, CO bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB, fold
Turn: (25 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero checks, CO bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB
River: (49 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero bets 24.4 BB, CO calls 24.4 BB
I didn't raise preflop because he was tight and had a super low steal % (like 5%). OOP vs tight players who are attacking I basically use jacks to setmine. Any other suggestions or criticisms are welcome.
Still find I really struggle OOP and usually have trouble knowing what to do. Was this line right? Personally whenever someone check/calls down and bets on the river I know they've probably got something big. I feel like a lot of players at the micros struggle to get away from this.
Didn't really fear he had a flush.. Thought he had a pair of aces on the flop and thought he could have 2 pair - especially on the river. The river completing the flush draw I thought would slow him down so I feel like I basically had to bet this out? Is the river okay?
Flop call is good. The flop has no flush draw, and you don't want to blow MP + 1 off his Ace/some Jack pairs. On the turn, you need to check-raise. I think a lot of his range has big Ace hands in them based on his PFR. Why did you flat the turn? Were you going for a river check-raise?
You should just lead the flop or CR. MW if someone doesn't have an A, then they aren't going to c-bet as a bluff as often, and you won't build a pot as effectively as you can if you just lead or CR. CR is fine on a dry board like this as you're not likely to get two opponents to go too far, you want to build a big pot against someone who does have Top pair + here.
Do not, not not CR the turn. That's the exact opposite of what you want to do. You either lead again, or depending on what you did on the flop, c/c. On the river against tight opponents I like just betting. You don't want to go for CR against tight opponent very often unless you have a monster, but even then it's not typically the best play. They will check behind more often than other players, and they won't pay off w/ worse as often. So I like the river lead, but it needs to be bigger. 2/3rds - 3/4th pot.
re: Poker & $5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ flop set OOP
I didn't check raise or lead out on the first two streets because I felt like he was just super tight pre flop and was going to get away from anything... I rarely check raise depending on the player because it looks so strong that I find people usually just give up.
I seriously struggle with OOP feel so much stronger IP and know what to do. I quite like the idea of c/ring the flop and leading out, but if he just calls the c/r I feel it's quite likely he's going to fold if I lead out on the turn?
Of course check-raises look strong. But a good amount of people can't lay down top pair, especially at the lower stakes. I remember I won a lot of BIs back at 25NL from people overplaying/not being able to get away from TP. And I also learned not to double/triple barrel them haha.
Yep, it's hard to play OOP no matter how good you are. A lot more especially when your opponents start getting aggro when you move up, and they're better at reading hand ranges. I hate it when people coldcall OTB. They can make my life hell, especially if I'm opening something marginal.
c/raise flop, bet something like 35-40% on the turn to get a call and have a nice pot built up and the give him another good price on the river on an already inflated pot. like 55% on river. top two pair/AK/AQ/AJ wiLL pay off here.
c/r flop or turn is a good idea here. IMO turn is a better idea because it might look like we picked up a FD or they might have picked up a FD and we have more chances to get paid off.
Anyone agree with this ?
why?^^^^^^ check raising flops is usually a set and everyone knows that. usually we check raise turn in order to hide our hand strength and maybe get one more bet from villain right? ( or allow him to catch up somewhat and maybe have better chances for our set to get paid off)?
re: Poker & $5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ flop set OOP
I prefer a lead on the flop over a CR, but CR the turn very few people do it as a bluff. That's when the red flags go off for people. We don't want any alarm bells on this kind of turn in order to get max value. Not to mention his opponent is betting his hand like he has a weak Ax or Jx, and being called by better is a long shot. And I disagree that everyone knows a flop CR is a set.
You said to CR the turn, but what hand is OP calling the flop w/ that he'd want to CR the turn with that includes a draw (you said to CR turn because it will look like he picked up a draw)? QcTc is the only reasonable thing I could think of, JcXc and AcXc aren't going to want to CR.


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Decline of the Empire http://www.declineoftheempire.com/ en-US 2017-02-20T10:54:45-05:00 Elizabeth Kolbert Discovers Flatland (Sort Of) http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/02/elizabeth-kolbert-discovers-flatland-sort-of.html In an article called Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds which appears in The New Yorker this month, Elizabeth Kolbert discovered Flatland (sort of). Did she actually read my Flatland essays, especially the 3rd one, which directly addresses the issues she writes about? Hell, no! That would be way to much to expect. However, in reviewing three books on predictable human irrationality, Kolbert actually discovers (or at least writes about) the salient Flatland point, which is emphasized in the reprint below. I will reference and quote this article in the 4th essay. I'm not going to express false humility here....
In an article called Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds which appears in The New Yorker this month, Elizabeth Kolbert discovered Flatland (sort of).

Did she actually read my Flatland essays, especially the 3rd one, which directly addresses the issues she writes about? Hell, no! That would be way to much to expect.

However, in reviewing three books on predictable human irrationality, Kolbert actually discovers (or at least writes about) the salient Flatland point, which is emphasized in the reprint below.

I will reference and quote this article in the 4th essay. I'm not going to express false humility here. I'm way, way ahead of Kolbert and the researchers she quotes. I daresay it will stay that way because they live in Flatland and that's what Flatland dictates.

— Dave

In "Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us" (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what's hazardous is not being vaccinated; that's why vaccines were created in the first place. "Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine," the Gormans note. But no matter how many scientific studies conclude that vaccines are safe, and that there's no link between immunizations and autism, anti-vaxxers remain unmoved. (They can now count on their side—sort of—Donald Trump, who has said that, although he and his wife had their son, Barron, vaccinated, they refused to do so on the timetable recommended by pediatricians.)

The Gormans, too, argue that ways of thinking that now seem self-destructive must at some point have been adaptive. And they, too, dedicate many pages to confirmation bias, which, they claim, has a physiological component. They cite research suggesting that people experience genuine pleasure—a rush of dopamine—when processing information that supports their beliefs. "It feels good to 'stick to our guns' even if we are wrong," they observe.

The Gormans don't just want to catalogue the ways we go wrong; they want to correct for them. There must be some way, they maintain, to convince people that vaccines are good for kids, and handguns are dangerous. (Another widespread but statistically insupportable belief they'd like to discredit is that owning a gun makes you safer.)

Here is the point, which we might call Flatland futility.

But here they encounter the very problems they have enumerated. Providing people with accurate information doesn't seem to help; they simply discount it. Appealing to their emotions may work better, but doing so is obviously antithetical to the goal of promoting sound science. "The challenge that remains," they write toward the end of their book, "is to figure out how to address the tendencies that lead to false scientific belief."

"The Enigma of Reason," "The Knowledge Illusion," and "Denying to the Grave" were all written before the November election. And yet they anticipate Kellyanne Conway and the rise of "alternative facts." These days, it can feel as if the entire country has been given over to a vast psychological experiment being run either by no one or by Steve Bannon. Rational agents would be able to think their way to a solution. But, on this matter, the literature is not reassuring.

No, it's not
 Dave Cohen 2017-02-20T10:54:45-05:00 Hans Rosling, Rest In Peace http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/02/hans-rosling-rest-in-peace.html Some time ago I wrote a short post called What Are We Up Against. The post featured a video by Hans Rosling, who passed away last week. Hans was very popular among the humans. And if you watch the new video below, you'll see why. This obituary is from the New York Times. Hans Rosling, a Swedish doctor who transformed himself into a pop-star statistician by converting dry numbers into dynamic graphics that challenged preconceptions about global health and gloomy prospects for population growth, died on Tuesday in Uppsala, Sweden. He was 68... Even before "post-truth" entered the lexicon, Dr....
Some time ago I wrote a short post called What Are We Up Against. The post featured a video by Hans Rosling, who passed away last week. Hans was very popular among the humans. And if you watch the new video below, you'll see why. This obituary is from the New York Times.

Hans Rosling, a Swedish doctor who transformed himself into a pop-star statistician by converting dry numbers into dynamic graphics that challenged preconceptions about global health and gloomy prospects for population growth, died on Tuesday in Uppsala, Sweden. He was 68...

Even before "post-truth" entered the lexicon, Dr. Rosling was echoing former Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan's maxim that everyone is entitled to his own opinions but not to his own facts.

"He challenged the whole world's view of development with his amazing teaching skills," Isabella Lovin, Sweden's deputy prime minister, said in a statement.

On Twitter, Bill Gates remembered Dr. Rosling as a "great friend, educator and true inspiration."

A self-described "edutainer," Dr. Rosling captivated vast audiences in TED Talks — beginning a decade ago in front of live audiences and later viewed online by millions — and on television documentaries like the BBC's "The Joy of Stats" in 2010...

"I produce a road map for the modern world," he told The Economist in 2010. "Where people want to drive is up to them. But I have the idea that if they have a proper road map and know what the global realities are, they'll make better decisions."

In Dr. Rosling's version of those realities, the traditional divide between third-world and industrialized nations had become anachronistic, since so many countries were undergoing development, with some in Asia improving faster than some in Europe. He considered that five billion people continued to head toward healthier lives while one billion remained mired in poverty and disease; that progress toward health and wealth had contributed to climate change; and that the world was so poorly governed that possibilities to improve it abounded.

"I'm not an optimist," Dr. Rosling once said. "I'm a very serious possibilist."

Not an optimist?

He predicted that the United Nations' goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 was attainable because the tools to do so had been identified and the share of people living in that condition had already declined by more than half in 25 years.

He also argued vigorously that overpopulation would no longer be problematic as the world grew wealthier and fertility rates declined.

"There are so many who think that death keeps control of population growth," he said in an interview with The Guardian in 2013. "That's just wrong!"

He told The Economist: "The only way to reach sustainable population levels is to improve public health. Child survival is the new green."

But wait, didn't he also believe that progress toward health and wealth contributes to climate change? And it does!

Rest in peace, Hans.

In the middle of the video below, Hans says his happy scenario will occur "if [and] only if" certain conditions are met. Listen for it. He only says it once. Then he seems to forget that he said it.

 Dave Cohen 2017-02-17T09:24:20-05:00 March For Science? http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/02/march-for-science.html Still working on the 4th essay. Trying hard to get it right. An article in Vox explores the pros and cons of the March For Science, which is scheduled for Earth Day 2017 (April 22). The idea is that lots of scientists will descend on our nations's capital to tell our leaders ... what? ... that science matters? Ah, there's the rub. Once you march for science, science becomes political. And of course the Usual Suspects will be all over this one (from Twitter)— colonization, racism, immigration, native rights, sexism, ableism, queer-, trans-, intersex-phobia, & econ justice are scientific issues...
Still working on the 4th essay. Trying hard to get it right.

An article in Vox explores the pros and cons of the March For Science, which is scheduled for Earth Day 2017 (April 22). The idea is that lots of scientists will descend on our nations's capital to tell our leaders ... what? ... that science matters?

Ah, there's the rub. Once you march for science, science becomes political. And of course the Usual Suspects will be all over this one (from Twitter)—

colonization, racism, immigration, native rights, sexism, ableism, queer-, trans-, intersex-phobia, & econ justice are scientific issues

— March for Science (@ScienceMarchDC) January 29, 2017

Ableism? Inter-sex phobia? I'm With Her?

Social scientist Dietram Scheufele foresees a problem that the march organizers can't avoid: what messages the marchers bring with them. If marchers show up wearing "I'm With Her" T-shirts, or if large numbers come with signs advocating for abortion rights, for instance, conservatives who read news coverage about the march may be more inclined to dismiss it.

It won't matter if there truly is a diversity of views on display during the march. All it takes is one photo to solidify an impression.

Really, the planet is heating up, science tells us why, the science is compelling ... end of story. In an ideal world, it shouldn't be necessary to march for science.

But this is not an ideal world, is it? What we've got here is a bunch of big-brained, highly social, story-telling monkeys.

Most scientists believe the hard line between research and activism should never be breached. They've got a point because once that line is blurred, for most of these monkeys, science and politics become indistinguishable.

Scientists also seek to protect their funding by staying out of the political fray. But science gets funded by the government, which makes it a political issue whether these scientists like it or not.

On the other hand, maintaining the line between research and activism allows scientists to maintain the fiction that they are doing science to inform and guide policy-making. As if truth matters.

Not happening, sorry fellas. If you want to try to get something done, you've got to roll  around in the mud just like everybody else. Not that mud-rolling will accomplish anything other than making you dirty. And you know what? You were already covered with mud whether you know it or not.

What a mess. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Nothing unusual about that. Thanks for playing!

Have a nice weekend.
 Dave Cohen 2017-02-10T09:25:38-05:00 Inequality Is Normal Unless... http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/02/inequality-is-normal-unless.html I'm still working on the 4th Flatland essay and will be for some time to come. So I thought I'd post something during the interim. Two articles caught my eye recently. Both had a similar theme — inevitable inequality. I was startled to read this opening text in 700 years of Western inequality, in one chart (Vox, January 23, 2017). We tend to think of rising income inequality as a 21st-century problem. A more equal distribution of wealth is normal, and the growing clout of the 1 percent is an anomaly. The problem is that in the long arc of...
I'm still working on the 4th Flatland essay and will be for some time to come. So I thought I'd post something during the interim.

Two articles caught my eye recently. Both had a similar theme — inevitable inequality. I was startled to read this opening text in 700 years of Western inequality, in one chart (Vox, January 23, 2017).

We tend to think of rising income inequality as a 21st-century problem. A more equal distribution of wealth is normal, and the growing clout of the 1 percent is an anomaly.

The problem is that in the long arc of history, none of that is really true. For centuries, rising inequality has been the norm in the West — and it's the relative equality of the post–World War era that is the anomaly.

Right! Along these lines, you might review the last section of my essay Moral Failure In Liberalized Market States (DOTE, June 25, 2014). It starts off like this—

It is unfortunate in the United States that political liberals and progressives always take the post-World War II decades as illustrative and exemplary with respect to what they believe is possible in achieving their desired utopia. I have given considerable thought to that historical period, a time when a large, prosperous Middle Class arose in America, for it is in many respects exceptional in human history. I grew up during those decades but have learned since that yearning for their return is a form of progressive nostalgia. We are very unlikely to see the return of the more inclusive moral preferences of the 1950's and 1960's...

The Vox article focuses on the work Guido Alfani, who provides the chart of European inequality over time. Zack Beauchamp, who wrote the article, seems a little lost when he says—

The upshot, if Alfani's data is right, is that we need to start worrying even more about growing inequality.

Or not. Why do we always have to worry even more about shit we can't do anything about?

It suggests that there's something about the deep structure of Western economies that tends to concentrate wealth in the hands of a small number of people.

Alfani isn't sure what that is, as his project is still in very preliminary stages. But his data strongly suggests that something is going on.

You know my view: there are always elites in large, complex human societies. Hierarchy, usually expressed as wealth disparities, is normal. There is nothing special about Western economies.

I can agree that there is something going on

The second article on inequality comes from Stanford and focuses on the work of Walter Scheidel, who examined the history of peace and economic inequality over the past 10,000 years.

What price do we pay for civilization?

Good question!

For Walter Scheidel, a professor of history and classics at Stanford, civilization has come at the cost of glaring economic inequality since the Stone Age.

The sole exception, in his account, is widespread violence — wars, pandemics, civil unrest; only violent shocks like these have substantially reduced inequality over the millennia.

"It is almost universally true that violence has been necessary to ensure the redistribution of wealth at any point in time," said Scheidel, summarizing the thesis of The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century, his newly published book.

Surveying long stretches of human history, Scheidel said that "the big equalizing moments in history may not have always had the same cause, but they shared one common root: massive and violent disruptions of the established order."

What can be done? Not much!

Scheidel acknowledges his pessimism about resolving inequality.

That any reputable, successful  human being can acknowledge his pessimism is remarkable in and of itself.

"Reversing the trend toward greater concentrations of income, in the United States and across the world, might be, in fact, nearly impossible," he said.

Among the wide variety of catastrophes that level societies, Scheidel identifies what he calls "four horsemen": mass mobilization or state warfare, transformative revolution, state collapse and plague.

A textbook example of mass mobilization is World War II, a conflict that embroiled many developed countries and, key for Scheidel, "uniformly hugely reduced inequality." As with Europe and Japan, he said, "in the U.S. there were massive tax increases, state intervention in the economy to support the war effort and increase output, which triggered a redistribution of resources, benefiting workers and harming the interests of the top 1 percent."

It looks like we need a massive catastrophe to fix our inequality problem (i.e., mass mobilization or state warfare, a transformative revolution, state collapse or plague).

Don't worry, though, I'm sure humanity can get the job done
 Dave Cohen 2017-02-01T10:08:10-05:00 Inauguration Day http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/01/inauguration-day.html Just letting you know I'm still alive and kicking. Still working on the 4th essay. Getting down to business has focused my attention. Since this is the last essay, I want to get things right. You know, to cement my soon-to-be-exalted place in human history It is a "special" day in Flatland — they're all special! — because today the "Insane Clown" begins his hostile take-over of the White House. The Tweeter-In-Chief now speaks for the nation! You would have thought, thinking counterfactually as you should always do in contemplating Flatland, that the irreducible absurdity of a former Reality-TV star...
Just letting you know I'm still alive and kicking. Still working on the 4th essay. Getting down to business has focused my attention. Since this is the last essay, I want to get things right.

You know, to cement my soon-to-be-exalted place in human history

It is a "special" day in Flatland — they're all special! — because today the "Insane Clown" begins his hostile take-over of the White House.

The Tweeter-In-Chief now speaks for the nation!

You would have thought, thinking counterfactually as you should always do in contemplating Flatland, that the irreducible absurdity of a former Reality-TV star leading the Earth's most powerful nation would have led to many voluntary retirements or suicides among the nation's political-types, elites and media as they came to realize with absolute finality that their lives have been and still are a cosmic joke.

That didn't happen. They will carry on. There will be business-as-usual and plenty of it!

Where are the space aliens when you need them?

 Dave Cohen 2017-01-20T10:05:01-05:00 Teflon Humans http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/01/teflon-humans.html Still working on the 4th Flatland essay. This is clearly going to take a while. — Dave Reader BJ wrote as follows in the comments section of Flatland Nihilism. The thing that I see missing from the discussion is that happiness doesn't change for even good events, such as winning the lottery (studies done in both 70s and 00s). No matter what we experience good or bad, we return to baseline brain chemistry or programming or whatever you want to call it. That is true nihilism. Yes, it is. I like the Teflon metaphor best because, with humans generally, it...
Still working on the 4th Flatland essay. This is clearly going to take a while.

— Dave

Reader BJ wrote as follows in the comments section of Flatland Nihilism.

The thing that I see missing from the discussion is that happiness doesn't change for even good events, such as winning the lottery (studies done in both 70s and 00s). No matter what we experience good or bad, we return to baseline brain chemistry or programming or whatever you want to call it.

That is true nihilism.

Yes, it is.

I like the Teflon metaphor best because, with humans generally, it captures the idea that nothing sticks. Experience and knowledge basically count for nothing in the general case when something fucked-up happens. And of course humans fuck things up all the time. With rare exceptions, humans always return to their "baseline state". That baseline includes every Flatland instinct and bias I've ever discussed on this blog. It's not merely somebody's personal baseline.

This insight forms a subtle but powerful shift in my thinking about Homo sapiens, for the return to baseline—the nothing sticks adaptation—is the most basic and insurmountable form of existential threat filtering (see the first Flatland essay).

Filtering über alles. What's at stake is that humans acknowledge their own fucked-up nature. That will never happen. Their evolved psychological defenses are ironclad. Will never happen. What Flatland humans optimistically term "resilience" is nihilistic human inertia writ large.

This is easy to see once you grasp it, but it took me a long time to do just that. I alluded to this the other day in my authentic hope post.

For example, most everybody forgets all about that hopeful Ted Talk 5 minutes after its over. Everybody applauds, sings Kum-Ba-Yah and then goes home. Nothing much happens thereafter. In short, false hope amounts to yet another happy moment in the life of a social, story-telling species. These observations apply to Grinspoon's book as well.

And what applies to Ted Talks or books on Big Important Subjects also applies to nearly everything else when there's something important at stake. Every morning there is a talk show on NPR (now 1A, formerly the Diane Rehm Show). Everyday a panel of "experts" discusses some fucked up thing. Everyday. The discussion ends, the fucked up thing is still fucked up, and then they do it again tomorrow. No one ever notices that virtually everything (in America) is fucked up.

And why? Well, they do it everyday. Afterwards we forget about it, and they forget about it, and we listen in again tomorrow when another panel of "experts" discusses some other fucked-up thing. Wash, rinse and repeat. Nothing sticks.

This truly does apply to everything. Suppose Congress does some corrupt, fucked-up thing which screws lots of little people. (They do this all the time.) Some time afterwards, most everybody gets used to it, they adapt—only a precious few remember—and the circumstantial baseline is subtly reset.

More bad climate news? We need to act now! And quickly! Like water off a duck's back.

The deeper baseline, human nature itself, including the adaptive behavior I'm describing, can never be reset.

And if you complain about what Congress did, you will be told "life goes on" or "there's no point crying over spilled milk" or some similar adaptive nonsense. There are lots of such phrases, and they are deployed widely and liberally. There's a good reason for that.

I mean, this Teflon humans stuff has been pissing me off for as long as I can remember.

I think it's the temporal aspect of the return to baseline that makes this so hard to grasp. I've fought against this adaptation for many years now by maintaining extensive notes files. I update them everyday. So I don't forget. That's what allows me to write this blog.

In short, my baseline is always shifting. That's gotta be very, very rare. (Well, actually, it doesn't shift much anymore  )

If experience and knowledge basically count for nothing, there is only nihilism. Every time somebody tells you "life goes on" or "you'll get over it"—you are not dead yet—that person is telling you that human life generally, and your life in particular, is utterly meaningless.

That's totally absurd, of course, but how can evolved nihilism not be absurd?

In this sense the human condition could not be worse.

Have a nice weekend.
 Dave Cohen 2017-01-06T10:51:01-05:00 Flatland Nihilism http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/01/flatland-nihilism.html Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player That struts and frets his hour upon the stage And then is heard no more; it is a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing — Shakespeare's MacBeth No Ted Talk has ever angered and disgusted me as much as Dan Gilbert's The Surprising Science of Happiness (video below). Gilbert's talk was recently featured on NPR's Ted Radio Hour. I will be quoting from the transcript below. I was angered and disgusted by two things— Gilbert's Flatland interpretation of Flatland What the data...
Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more; it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing
  — Shakespeare's MacBeth

No Ted Talk has ever angered and disgusted me as much as Dan Gilbert's The Surprising Science of Happiness (video below). Gilbert's talk was recently featured on NPR's Ted Radio Hour. I will be quoting from the transcript below.

I was angered and disgusted by two things—

Gilbert's Flatland interpretation of Flatland

What the data Gilbert draws upon say about our benighted species

I will relate this to what I call "Flatland nihilism" below. This is one of the most important posts I have ever written. You might pay attention.

From the transcript—

Gilbert — Well, turns out the prefrontal cortex does lots of things, but one of the most important things it does is it is an experience simulator. Human beings have this marvelous adaptation that they can actually have experiences in their heads before they try them out in real life. This is a trick that got our species out of the trees and into the shopping mall. Now all of you have done this. I mean, you know, Ben and Jerry's doesn't have liver and onion ice cream, and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went yuck. It's because from - without leaving your armchair, you can simulate that flavor and say, yuck, before you make it.

There is no "experience simulator" in brain in any important sense. Does not exist (but see the updated discussion in the comments). Humans do not spend their time simulating possible futures and then work toward the one they like the best. What humans actually do, in all truly important cases, is stumble blindly into the future and hope for the best driven by unconscious motives which are totally opaque to them (inaccessible to consciousness).

Simulator? Ben and Jerry's doesn't have liver and onion ice cream? How about simulating 3°C of future warming? How about simulating Wall Street running amok again? Jesus wept.

Gilbert — Research that my laboratory has been doing, that economists and psychologists around the country have been doing, have revealed something really quite startling to us, something we call the impact bias, which is the tendency for the simulator to work badly, for the simulator to make you believe that different outcomes are more different than in fact they really are.

Here's what you need to know.

From field studies to laboratory studies, we see that winning or losing an election, gaining or losing a romantic partner, getting or not getting a promotion, passing or not passing a college test, on and on, have far less impact, less intensity and much less duration than people expect them to have.

In fact, a recent study showing how major life traumas affect people suggests that if it happened over three months ago, with only a few exceptions, it has no impact whatsoever on your happiness.

GIlbert thinks he's measuring some poorly defined Flatland concept called "happiness," but what he's really measuring is adaptation to changing environments. And adaptation is really a form of filtering in the sense I use that word. And those changing environments are now mostly the result of human meddling in the natural world, or normal predatory behavior in large complex human societies.

In short, humans can get used to anything, including "winning or losing an election, gaining or losing a romantic partner, getting or not getting a promotion, passing or not passing a college test."

Not to mention genocides, random mass killing sprees, ongoing environment catastrophes, and Donald Trump. And it's true! Experience tells us that humans work this way. Three months later their "happiness" is totally unaffected. Unless of course you are a parent who lost a child or somebody killed your whole family. Still in the "vast majority" of cases, humans manage to "return to their baseline" or close to it in very short order (see below).

Guy Raz — So I'm, like, totally surprised that this idea that, like, just three months after some kind of traumatic experience, with just few exceptions, it has no impact on happiness. I mean, I cannot imagine somebody, you know, like, ever finding real happiness again after that.

Gilbert — That's because your imagination, like mine, like everyone else's, is extraordinarily limited...

When humans refer to their "imagination" in any context, your bullshit detector should be in the red.

It's not because people don't get over these events, and if by get over, we mean end up having happy productive lives. They do. In fact, the vast majority of people who experience any kind of tragedy or trauma will ultimately return to their baseline or very close to their baseline in what seems like relatively short order.

We don't recognize that we are as resilient a species as we turn out to be. What's interesting to me as a psychologist is, why don't we know this about ourselves?

I have long recognized that humans are "resilient" in the sense intended. And that's the fucking problem, isn't it?

Think about this. If the typical Flatland human is just fine happiness-wise 3 months after some traumatic event, then nothing those fucking humans fucking do or experience fucking matters. If there is no painful conscious consideration of long-run causes and consequences, what does it fucking matter what humans do or experience?

(Told you I'm angry and disgusted.)

That's what I call Flatland nihilism in its true evolutionary sense.  Nihilism is not the province of so-called "pessimists" or "anarchists" or "hedonists" or others who take a dark or cynical view of the human condition.

Nihilistic is what humans are in the normal course of events. What makes this so much worse is that it is easy to see the evolutionary (fitness-enhancing) value of such adaptation (filtering).

If you don't want to get out of bed in the morning, you're unlikely to breed and carve out successful economic niches so you can take care of yourself and your offspring. On the other hand, Teflon humans, oblivious to human fuck-ups in the general case, simply get on with things after a short-lived period of confusion or mourning after they get the short end of the stick (i.e., get shafted, get fucked-over, etc.).

And if you're adapting, you're not learning anything. Oh, voted for Trump? He just fucked you over in some awful way? Oh, well, you'll get over it. And you do, after a while. Because nothing fucking matters, does it? This is not some evolutionary bug — it's a feature.

That's true nihilism. Humans can not respond appropriately as things get worse because time heals all wounds. (Well, almost all.)

Shakespeare was right — impact bias, or what Gilbert calls our "psychological immune system," among so many other truly unfortunate human characteristics, guarantees almost without exception that

Life is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing

— Dave

Here you go, another tale told by a Flatland idiot ... this strutting Harvard peacock

 Dave Cohen 2017-01-04T09:36:52-05:00 This Blog's Future http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2017/01/this-blogs-future.html I gave some thought to the future of DOTE during the holiday break. I'm not getting any younger There's some unfinished work I need to do in 2017. In particular, I need to write the 4th and final Flatland essay. That essay will— summarize previous work (the delusional blank slate, filtering, bullshit, our relationship with nature, etc.) include and explain the updated Flatland model discuss the anthropocentric instinct discuss the nature of consciousness discuss human story-telling and contrast that with reality (e.g., tribal narratives ≠ reality) discuss all-pervasive social instincts and the default mode network It will probably run 30-40...
I gave some thought to the future of DOTE during the holiday break. I'm not getting any younger

There's some unfinished work I need to do in 2017. In particular, I need to write the 4th and final Flatland essay. That essay will—

summarize previous work (the delusional blank slate, filtering, bullshit, our relationship with nature, etc.)

include and explain the updated Flatland model

discuss the anthropocentric instinct

discuss the nature of consciousness

discuss human story-telling and contrast that with reality  (e.g., tribal narratives ≠ reality)

discuss all-pervasive social instincts and the default mode network

It will probably run 30-40 pages in total. I've already talked about a lot of the 4th essay in various posts. Unfortunately, people have to read here consistently over a long period of time or read intensively on one's own using a search engine to get the gist of what I'm saying. I am hopeful that the 4th essay (and all the links therein) will take care of that problem.

Then I will put up a link to a Flatland resources page. That page will contain an organized set of links to previous posts, including all four Flatland essays.

While I'm doing all that, and afterwards, I will write as my mood dictates.

Of course I am well aware that my Flatland stuff will be forever beyond the reach of the vast majority of humans (>99.9%). However, for those who might benefit from my insights, however depressing they are, I would like to reach as many people as possible. Here is what a DOTE reader said about me and my recent post Our Foolish Species.

This author, David Cohen, doesn't have the credentialed chops of [David Grinspoon], and may seem like something of a crank. However, having read him for about a year now, I have seen that he is very much aware, literate and observant about the human animal and sees some things about us which no one else does. In any event, he has some sound criticisms of the first article which are entirely evident to anyone who pays serious attention to the matters under discussion.

I share because of personal interest in the matters under discussion and because what is under discussion will impact the world for us (as it has our whole lives, even if we've never noticed) and for our children and grandchildren and beyond. It's a very big, if subtle and often unseen, deal.

All this is true — yes, even the part where he says that I see some things about humans which no one else does. Actually, there are other people who see some of the things I do. Some of them read this blog and have benefited from doing so. One difference is that I organized all those ongoing observations, invented a "good enough" model to explain them, and wrote it all down.

That said, I don't think I'm like the vast majority of other humans. There's something different and strange about me, although I can't put my finger on it. And when the guy says above that the stuff I'm talking about is "a very big, if subtle and often unseen, deal" — well, who could argue with that?

Bonus Video

 Dave Cohen 2017-01-02T11:32:58-05:00 Authentic Hope Versus False (Flatland) Hope http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/12/authentic-hope-versus-false-flatland-hope.html This will be my last post of 2016. Once again there was no indication this year that Homo sapiens can change its aggregate behavior in some positive way. Indeed, bad situations like politics in the U.S. and the state of the climate got considerably worse this year. My Flatland stuff can and should be viewed as a hypothesis about our benighted species. With each passing year in which humans fuck-up by failing to address the great anthropogenic problems of the 21st century, Flatland "pessimism" looks more and more realistic. In short, there is more and more confirming evidence supporting the...
This will be my last post of 2016. Once again there was no indication this year that Homo sapiens can change its aggregate behavior in some positive way. Indeed, bad situations like politics in the U.S. and the state of the climate got considerably worse this year.

My Flatland stuff can and should be viewed as a hypothesis about our benighted species.

With each passing year in which humans fuck-up by failing to address the great anthropogenic problems of the 21st century, Flatland "pessimism" looks more and more realistic. In short, there is more and more confirming evidence supporting the Flatland hypothesis as time goes on.

But you certainly can't tell that to David Grinspoon, who is deeply offended by ... I'll let him tell you.

Currently I feel that spewing misanthropy is just as dangerous as emitting carbon dioxide. It is the opposite of activism. There is a real danger of unintended consequences, of encouraging people to give up. Pessimism, if it becomes a habit, can reinforce a narrative of unstoppable decline. If there is nothing we can do, that releases us from our obligations.

There's no future in despising humanity. Self‐flagellation may feel good to some, but how does it help move us toward solutions? Surely we can find a way to love Earth without hating ourselves.

There's more to my argument than just "put on a happy face." This negativity is suspect, tactically (it doesn't work) and philosophically (it reinforces Earth alienation rather than identity). It also feeds a false narrative about climate change. Many people see the fight to halt global warming as an impending either/or situation. We're going to stop it by a certain date or we're not—and it looks like we're not.

Some have likened it to an asteroid that is clearly heading for Earth. In some important respects, this is a bad analogy.

In fact, Elizabeth Kolbert, talking about the 6th mass extinction, likened humanity to an asteroid analogous to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. Nobody to my knowledge has characterized climate change as an asteroid.

Unlike the path of an asteroid, whose motion is determined by the relatively simple laws of gravitational mechanics, climate is horribly complex. The asteroid either will hit us or it won't. With climate, it's not an either/or proposition. It's a constantly shifting trajectory that will require sustained attention and concern over years, decades, and centuries. Clearly we are not going to shut down all the coal plants in the next 10 years. Just as clearly, they will all be shut down by this century's end. Between those two boundary conditions lies a huge range of possibilities. Yes, we are putting ourselves at risk, and yes, we must do whatever we can to move ourselves as quickly as we can toward new energy systems.

There's lots more where that came from. All human failures can be placed at the doorstep of pessimists. Follow the link to the Slate article.

To be clear, I am not a misanthrope, although I do admit that my familiarity with our happy species over nearly 65 years has bred much contempt.

There is no authentic hope for humanity and the biosphere generally in my not-so-humble opinion. But what do I mean by "authentic" hope? We define it by contrasting it with false (Flatland) hope. Here is what false hope looks like.  False hope...

takes human nature out of the equation by positing a blank slate (anything is possible)

expresses instinctual optimism about the future, and is in this sense obligatory.

expresses instinctual anthropocentrism

expresses instinctual technophilia (technology solves all problems)

False hope thus amounts to mindless (instinctual) cheer-leading for the human species. And there is one more thing about false hope:

false hope is emotionally warm & fuzzy, but also ephemeral and meaningless (inconsequential)

For example, most everybody forgets all about that hopeful Ted Talk 5 minutes after its over. Everybody applauds, sings Kum-Ba-Yah and then goes home. Nothing much happens thereafter. In short, false hope amounts to yet another happy moment in the life of a social, story-telling species. These observations apply to Grinspoon's book as well.

And now, let's turn to authentic hope. What would that look like? Authentic hope...

puts human nature front and center

asks humans to examine and acknowledge without filters (blinders) their deeply flawed behaviors

asks humans to examine and acknowledge the probable and primitive evolutionary roots of those behaviors

demands the seemingly impossible by challenging humans to transcend various instinctual drives, defenses and biases in order to make fundamental, positive behavioral changes

And there is one more thing about authentic hope:

authentic hope is brutal; it is unrelenting. Once the process is put it place, it goes on forever and applies to everybody (no backsliding)

Some difference! That's no ordinary "challenge" in the Flatland sense of the word.

You see, Grinspoon is yet another purveyor of Flatland hope. And all because it is literally unthinkable for him to tell his children that humanity is probably fucked. It is best to avoid awkward questions—what was Grinspoon doing having those children anyway if they are going to live in a very degraded world? Etc. Ironically, highly-educated, smart people like Grinspoon constitute the best Flatland humanity has to offer.

I myself do not have authentic hope because I think the "seemingly impossible" is indeed impossible. Really, the required steps are impossible from start to finish. If one takes the phrase "human nature" literally and seriously, the Flatland hypothesis strongly implies a large degree of determinism, at least in these big existential matters.

I could go on but don't want to. I'll see you in 2017.

— Dave

Bonus video

 Dave Cohen 2016-12-28T11:12:04-05:00 Notes On Instinctual Anthropocentrism http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/12/notes-on-instinctual-anthropocentrism.html You are not aware of your own anthropocentrism in the same way you are not normally aware of the air you're breathing. Only in extraordinary circumstances where the air is very thin or almost absent would you become aware of the invisible oxygen which keeps you alive. On Earth, in the case of anthropocentrism, there are no analogous extraordinary circumstances at this time. The natural world is thus entirely at our mercy with no exceptions until that inevitable time in the future when ... never mind. Anyway, anthropocentrism is irreducibly instinctual in the human animal. There is abundant evidence that...
You are not aware of your own anthropocentrism in the same way you are not normally aware of the air you're breathing. Only in extraordinary circumstances where the air is very thin or almost absent would you become aware of the invisible oxygen which keeps you alive. On Earth, in the case of anthropocentrism, there are no analogous extraordinary circumstances at this time. The natural world is thus entirely at our mercy with no exceptions until that inevitable time in the future when ... never mind.

Anyway, anthropocentrism is irreducibly instinctual in the human animal.

There is abundant evidence that we are heavily prone to perceiving and interpreting other components of the world, besides ourselves, in anthropocentric terms. As a result, we may impose complexity on a system that lacks it (or at least lacks the kind of complexity we usually attribute to it). In the case of the social brain hypothesis, we may inadvertently have used primates as a kind of tautological instrument: we have told them what we want them to be in order to validate our own view of who we think we are...

An anthropocentric stance is something from which, to a large degree, we cannot retreat: by definition, neither can we see the world in anything other than human terms nor can we describe or discuss it in anything other than ordinary human language.

Inescapable anthropocentrism necessarily implies that humans can only see the natural world in strictly human terms. In particular, humans can only see the natural world as something to exploit for their own purposes. It can not be any other way, as I discussed in the 2nd Flatland essay. Anthropocentrism underlies all the delusional nonsense humans invent when they discuss the fate of the natural world.

Only in recent times did those few humans who "care about" the natural world, or understand its fundamental importance find a way to make that world visible to humans—they put a price tag on nature (Radiolab, season 13, episode 3). And thus we get observations like this at the 11:00 mark:

I want to say, and this is based on my experience working in developing countries, that when you don't put a value on these [ecosystem] services, basically [those services] don't get counted.

That observation holds true in developed countries too of course. And any "sustainable" practices put in place by pre-industrial humans would only have been enacted to safeguard successful future exploitation.

I would like you to listen to that Radiolab program in the hope that you will experience it in the same way I do. In particular, at no point did the various humans involved manage to take a non-anthropocentric view of the natural world. For example, the host Jad Abumrad keeps referring to the "aesthetic" value of nature, and seems to confuse this with the natural world having intrinsic value. (This is not the same as priceless). But the "aesthetic" value of nature must lie in the mind of the human beholder.

At the end, J.B. McKinnon, who I quoted in the second essay, said this after the 19:45 mark:

Abumrad — Is there another way to think about the value of nature in a way that's not economic and therefore shortsighted and all about us, but also not simply about the aesthetics and the beauty because that can be sort of limiting too. Is there another way?

McKinnon — The best I was able to do in thinking about this was, when it struck me that in a way, all this biological diversity that's out there, all these wonderful and amazing and alien things that other species can do, is like an extension of our own brains. There's so much imagination out there that we simply could not come up with on our own, that we can think of it as a pool of imagination and creativity from which we as humans are able to draw.

And when we draw down on that pool of creativity and imagination, we deeply impoverish ourselves. In a sense we are doing harm to our own ability to think. And to dream.

There you go—inescapable anthropocentrism.

 Dave Cohen 2016-12-27T10:36:23-05:00


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When Life Gives You Religious Freedom Acts, Send Fundraising E-Mails
The Democratic Governors Association is trying to make hay from the fracas over Indiana's Religious Freedom Restoration Act.
Tuesday night, the organization sent a fundraising e-mail to supporters from Gavrie Kullman, its digital director, saying:
I know you've been hearing the news. Republican Gov. Mike Pence is leading as many as THIRTEEN GOP states in passing laws that blatantly discriminate against people for being gay. We have to defeat these guys – there's just too much at stake.
Our very first FEC deadline of the year strikes at MIDNIGHT TONIGHT – just 7 hours away. Can you donate $5 or more right now to make sure Democrats have what it takes to defeat Gov. Mike Pence and Republican extremists across the country?
Opponents of the law, which Indiana Governor Mike Pence signed last week, say it will allow businesses, particularly vendors for wedding needs, to discriminate against gays. Pence has said that it is not a license to discriminate.
In addition to the states referenced in the e-mail, where lawmakers are considering their own bills, 19 states besides Indiana already have religious freedom laws, though the language varies.


text:
Pregnant Beyonce Is 'Going Into Hiding' as She and Jay-Z Are 'Signatures Away From a Divorce'
- 08:56 AM, Feb 16
Writer/Director Craig Brewer ("Hustle & Flow," "Black Snake Moan") delivers a new take of the beloved 1984 classic film, "Footloose." Ren MacCormack (played by newcomer Kenny Wormald) is transplanted from Boston to the small southern town of Bomont where he experiences a heavy dose of culture shock. A few years prior, the community was rocked by a tragic accident that killed five teenagers after a night out and Bomont's local councilmen and the beloved Reverend Shaw Moore (Dennis Quaid) responded by implementing ordinances that prohibit loud music and dancing. Not one to bow to the status quo, Ren challenges the ban, revitalizing the town and falling in love with the minister's troubled daughter Ariel (Julianne Hough) in the process.


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text: Copying and distributing are prohibited without the permission of the publisher. If you wish to distribute this content please contact Christopher Hunt (firstname.lastname@example.com) for a quote. Subscribe today: Order Euromoney by contacting us on +44 (0)20 7779 8999 (UK) or +1 212 224 3570. Private equity: IPO pipeline swells to bursting point By: Louise Bowman Published on: July 2014 AA slumps as PE exits; secondary buyouts down 25% Print Order Share Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on linkedin Share on googleplus The weak performance of several recent IPOs is casting a shadow on one of the market's most fertile sources of dealflow: private equity firms. Private equity sponsors have leapt at the recent opportunity to exit investments via IPOs with robust enthusiasm, with, as Deutsche Bank's Henrik Johnsson, European head of high-yield capital markets, told this magazine in April "every single private equity asset that has been owned for more than one year looking at an IPO". Recent research from EY seems to confirm this: by the end of March private equity backed firms had priced 46 IPOs in 2014 raising $17.4 billion – more than double the equivalent figure for 2013. "All firms are lining up assets to IPO, and investment bankers are talking about the significant premium they can get from an IPO. Everyone wants to get things out there in an orderly rush – people are not expecting that appetite will be this frothy for very much longer" Graham Elton, Bain & Co "IPO appetite has a huge impact on PE on both the sell side and the buy side," Graham Elton, head of private equity for Bain & Co in EMEA, tells Euromoney. "All firms are lining up assets to IPO, and investment bankers are talking about the significant premium they can get from an IPO. Everyone wants to get things out there in an orderly rush – people are not expecting that appetite will be this frothy for very much longer." You must be a trialist or subscriber to view the full article. Please log in or see below to Subscribe or take a Free Trial Subscribe online today Access to all our survey and award results Euromoney magazine in print Unlimited access to Euromoney.com More than 30 specialist supplements a year Subscribe Today Free 30 day access Online access to Euromoney.com Daily coverage of the global financial markets Access to interviews, comment and in-depth analysis The best of our editorial comment by email Sign Up Today Add Your Comment All fields are compulsory All comments are subject to editorial review as we are subject to the same regulations adhered to in publishing our own content. For this reason, your comment may not be live immediately, or may not be published. Your name: Your email: (will not appear) Publish your name? Comments: I have read and agree to the Terms and Conditions


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Is your skin feeling the effects of winter right about now? Mine is. Sallow, dry, and lifeless- typical for this time of year. It's time to ramp up the moisture and also remember the sunscreen, the glare off of the snow needs shielding too. What I … [Read more...]
Why You Need an All Purpose Skin Balm
If you don't already have an all-purpose balm like Repair Skin Salve from Colorado's own Green Goo by Sierra Sage, you really do need one. This little tin sat on my kitchen counter for a week while I was testing it out, and in that time I used it on … [Read more...]
The Hyaluronic Acid Serum You Probably Read About in the New York Times
When the New York Times published a piece on Hyaluronic Acid a few weeks ago, we were all reminded about how amazing HA is for the skin. One woman they interviewed said that HA was "like Vaseline around the lens. It just makes the skin a little bit … [Read more...]
The 10 Best Skincare Products That Will Change Your Skin
Finishing up my '5 Days of Favorites' I started a few weeks back (pre-Lola delivery!) with some of the best skincare I've had the pleasure of trying. You'll see one category missing though and that's for a traditional cream moisturizer. Instead, look … [Read more...]
Update Your Look Insantly With These New Year's Beauty Essentials
Almost 7 weeks. It's the longest I've ever gone without blogging and the length of time I've been away on a quasi maternity leave after having Lola, my 3rd, right before Thanksgiving. I really wanted to enjoy the holidays without the need to … [Read more...]
The Spicy Skin Mask That Has Me Obsessed
My friend and facialist Lexa who I've gone to on and off for over 10 years has never wavered in her love of Éminence. While other skin pros are constantly trying the latest and greatest from different lines, she swears that this Hungarian … [Read more...]
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5144 Aaron Road, Frederic 49733
See more homes for sale in Frederic, MI
Absolutely beautiful property and custom built 2304 sq. ft. home with 3 bedrooms and two baths with custom kitchen and master bedroom and bath. Home also has the Northern Michigan pitch roof for shedding winter snow and garage has like new floor and is partially finished with drywall and insulation. Great value at a reasonable price. #7203
Property Information
- Status
- Active
- Address
- 5144 Aaron Road
- City
- Frederic
- Zip
- 49733
- County
- Crawford
- Township
- Maple Forest
- Possession
- 30 days after c
- Subdivision
- Total Finished SqFt
- 2,304
- Above Grade SqFt
- 2,304
- Garage
- 2.0
- Garage Desc.
- Detached/UN
- Waterfront Desc
- No
- Water
- Well
- Sewer
- Septic
- Year Built
- 2003
- Home Style
- Ranch
- Taxes
- $1,362
Rooms and Land
- MasterBedroom
- 13.4 x 12.9 1st Floor
- Bedroom2
- 12 x 10 1st Floor
- Bedroom3
- 11.6 x 9.4 1st Floor
- Bath1
- 5'x 11' 1st Floor
- Bath2
- 14'x 10'9'' 1st Floor
- Dining
- 12 x 9 1st Floor
- Kitchen
- 16 x 11.4 1st Floor
- Living
- 16 x 12 1st Floor
- Cooling
- Forced Air, Propane
- Heating
- Forced Air, Propane
- Acreage
- 3.09
- Lot Dimensions
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- Appliances
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- Interior Features
- Pellet Stove, Walk - In Closet
- Exterior Materials
- Vinyl
- Exterior Features
- Deck, Garden Area, Natural, Shed
Listing Video for 5144 Aaron Road, Frederic MI 49733
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Our Michigan real estate agents can answer all of your questions about 5144 Aaron Road, Frederic MI 49733. Real Estate One, Max Broock Realtors, and J&J Realtors are part of the Real Estate One Family of Companies and dominate the Frederic, Michigan real estate market. To sell or buy a home in Frederic, Michigan, contact our real estate agents as we know the Frederic, Michigan real estate market better than anyone with over 100 years of experience in Frederic, Michigan real estate for sale.
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