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Well, it looks like Blankfein, Dimon, et. al. really should have tried harder to make that meeting with the President a couple of weeks ago. It appeared as if he may have had something important to discuss.
As my readers and subscribers know, I have been very bearish on the big money center banks since 2007, and quite profitably so. The last 3 quarters saw a much larger trend reversal than I expected, that resulted in the disgorgement of a decent amount of those profits - a disgorgement that I am still beating myself up over.
You see, as a fundamental investor, I don't do well when reality diverges from the fundamentals for too long a period. Luckily for me, fundamentals always return, and they usually return with a vengeance.
There was a massive overvalutation in banks throughout the bulk of last year, again! I made it clear to my subscribers that the banks simply have too many things going against them: political headwinds, nasty assets, diminishing revenue drivers, over-indebted consumers, and a soft economic cycle. I also warned explicitly that I didn't think Obama would be nearly as lenient on the banks as Bush was.
Well, the headwinds are stiffening. On that note, let's take an empirical look at just what this means in terms of valuation (note, I will following this up with a full forensic re-valuation for all subscribers, incuding a scenario analysis of varying extents of principal trading limits). Some of these banks are I-N-S-A-N-E-L-Y overvalued at these post bear market rally levels considering the aforementioned headwinds. Methinks fundamental analysis will make a comeback in a big way for 2010 as it meets the momentum and algo traders in a mutual BEAR feast on the big investment banks cum hedge funds. I can't guarantee it will happen, but the numbers dictate that it should. We shall see in the upcoming quarters.
We have retrieved information about trading revenues for Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and BoFA (NYSE:BAC). We have also retrieved some balance sheet data to reflect the trend in investment holdings and the level of leverage, but I will address that in a future post for the sake of expediency. While the banks don't break out the P&L for principal trading, we can sort of back into it. Remember, traders are fed bonuses off of net revenue, not profit.
Goldman Sachs
Trading revenues accounted for more than 50% of the total revenues over the last 8 quarters. The impact on earnings is magnified with the total trading revenues amounting to more than 150% of the total pretax income over the last 8 quarters except for the last quarter in which the earnings were positively impacted by substantial decline in compensation expense which was negative 519 million in 4Q09 against 5.4 billion in 3Q09. The negative compensation charge during the quarter was owing to accounting adjustments
Principal investments which are purely GS proprietary transactions contribution ranged within 5% to 15% of the total revenues except in 4Q08 when the huge write downs in principal investments offset the positive revenues from other sources. Revenues from principal investments ranged within 15%-50% of the total pre-tax income except in 4Q08.
Note: In the GS income statement, revenues from trading and principal investments is the GS total revenues from trading activities. This revenue item comprises of two heads - trading and principal investments.
Revenues from proprietary trading in FICC (Fixed income, currency and commodity) and Equities is clubbed with the trading revenues earned on the transactions done on behalf of clients and is reported under the former head. In first nine months of 2009, nearly 41% of the trading revenues came from interest rate related transactions and 37% came from equities.
GS trading revenues break up (in $ million)
% of total
% of total
Interest rates
Commodities and other
The latter head primarily represents net investment gains/ losses from certain corporate and real estate investments and investment in the ordinary shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited. Total principal investments amounted to 20.7 billion which is just 6-7% of the total investment portfolio of GS.
Thus, most of proprietary trading revenues is included in the former head . However, it's difficult to differentiate between proprietary trading and client-related trading. Revenues from principal investments in case of GS and MS are not trading revenues but are write-ups/downs on certain illiquid investments which are segregated as principal investments. We have created various scenarios to demonstrate the impact of a decline in trading revenues on earnings.
Morgan Stanley
Trading revenues contribution to total net revenues ranged with 15%-150% of the total revenues over the last 8 quarters except in 1Q09 when the trading revenues were more than offset by write-downs in principal investments. The impact on earnings is magnified with the total trading revenues amounting to more than 100% of the total pretax income over the last 8 quarters except in 1Q09.
Principal investments contribution to total revenues has been less than 5% of the total revenues over the last 8 quarters except in 4Q08 and 1Q09 during which huge write-downs were recorded in the principal investments. Revenues from principal investments ranged within 15%-25% of the total pre-tax income except in 1Q09.
Click to enlarge:
JP Morgan Chase
JPM's trading revenues come primarily from principal transactions (JPM's proprietary revenues). Trading revenues contribution to total net revenues ranged with 5%-15% of the total revenues over the last 8 quarters except in 4Q08. Total trading revenues ranged within 20%-100% of the pretax income except in 4Q08. As a commercial bank, JPM is doing horribly in terms of earnigns due to credit losses. I actually see this getting worse in the near future before it gets better, and as it gets better, it will do so gradually. Stripped of the risky, yet profitable prop trading, JPM will be looking a lot more like Citigroup (NYSE:C) than many pundits may think!
Click graph to enlarge:
Cute graphic above, eh? There is plenty of this in the public preview. When considering the staggering level of derivatives employed by JPM, it is frightening to even consider the fact that the quality of JPM's derivative exposure is even worse than Bear Stearns and Lehman's derivative portfolio just prior to their fall. Total net derivative exposure rated below BBB and below for JP Morgan currently stands at 35.4% while the same stood at 17.0% for Bear Stearns (February 2008) and 9.2% for Lehman (May 2008).
We all know what happened to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, don't we??? I warned all about Bear Stearns way before they collapsed (Is this the Breaking of the Bear?: On Sunday, 27 January 2008) and Lehman as well ("Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?": On February 20th, 2008) by taking a close, unbiased look at their balance sheet. Both of these companies were rated investment grade at the time, just like "you know who".
Now, I am not saying JPM is about to collapse, since it is one of the anointed ones chosen by the government and guaranteed not to fail - unlike Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and it is (after all) investment grade rated. Who would you put your faith in, the big ratings agencies or your favorite blogger? Then again, if it acts like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, is it a chicken??? I'll leave the rest up for my readers to decide.
Free stuff: Independent Look into JP Morgan. Plenty more of this in the public preview. When considering the staggering level of derivatives employed by JPM, it is frightening to even consider the fact that the quality of JPM's derivative exposure...
Bank of America (this may be a literal moniker sometime soon if the system relapses):
Trading revenues contribution to total net revenues ranged within 3%-25% of the total revenues over the last 8 quarters except in 4Q08. Although the trading revenues contribution to the total revenues has been declining over the last few quarters, the impact on earnings has been magnified because of reduced earnings (owing to high provisions for loan losses and reduced income from other sources). While the trading revenues amounted to 20-30% of the pretax income in 1Q08 and 2Q08, it has amounted to more than 100% of the total pretax income over the last 6 quarters.
If the Bulge Bracket Sector starts to move down, "Look Out Below!"
I seem to have been one of the very few was bearish on Goldman and Morgan Stanley in early 2008 (see links at the bottom of this post as well as Get Your Federally Insured Hedge Fund Here, Twice the Price Sale Going on Now! and It appears as if the patina on Goldman's Stock is fading... and The Riskiest Bank on the Street).
As illustrated to subscribers, the bulk of the valuation increase for the big investment banks stems from the peer group bear rally premium of the last 9 months. If, or more accurately, when that premium dissipates, the whole sector will drop in fundamental value. I don't believe the banks are worth what they are trading at now, but comps are comps. Let's take a look at the comp trend.
As you can see, thanks to the bear market rally, the enire I bank peer group has enjoyed a big bump in valuation - one that I believe will prove to be transient, to say the least.
If I am right, then these I bank stocks will collapse, as the value drivers just aren't there to drive the valuation. Nearly all business units are trending down save a bump or two, FICC and trading arbitrage can't last forever (some analysts say the party is over already), and eventually the credit losses and asset devaluations on the balance sheet will come a knockin', despite the "get 4 quarters' worth of free mark to market lies" from the powers that be. Residential real estate is resuming its downtrend (see If Anybody Bothered to Take a Close Look at the Latest Housing Numbers...) as credit loses resume their uptrend (seeThe Truth! The Truth? Banker's Can't Handle the Truth!!! andResidential Lending Credit Losses Worsen as Unstainable Government Support Proves... Unsustainable).
Disclosure: Short all tickers mentioned above


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Topic: Strategy Analytics
Apple Inc shares up near quarterly high as Q3 earnings release approaches
07/14/2016, 08:07 pm
Shares of Apple increased nearly 2 percent today to close at $98.79, close to the peak the stock has traded since diving below $100 after the company reported its fiscal Q2 earnings. Within two weeks, Apple will announce its earnings for Q3, which ended in June.
Apple, Inc's double digit U.S. Mac growth contradicts IDC & Gartner reports of a Mac sales slump
07/26/2014, 11:07 pm
Apple reported "strong double digit growth" in its Mac sales in the U.S., directly contradicting the earlier estimates published by IDC and Gartner that stated Apple's U.S. Mac sales fell year-over-year in the June quarter and calling into question the legitimacy of market estimates that the tech media uncritically presents as factual.
Chinese mobile phone market set to overtake US as Apple preps China retail push
05/28/2014, 10:05 am
Chinese consumers will spend more than $87 billion on mobile phones in 2014, a Wednesday report predicts, pushing revenues in the Asian giant's mobile market well past those in the U.S. in advance of Apple's planned Chinese retail expansion.
Samsung shipped 2x as many phones as Apple, earned half as much
04/29/2014, 12:04 pm
While Samsung itself does not report unit shipments, estimates from a closely positioned marketing company indicate that it shipped 89 million phones in the March quarter, nearly 20 million more than the year ago quarter, despite earning less money this year, and half as much as Apple.
The curious case of IDC, Gartner & Strategy Analytics' PC, phone & tablet data on Apple
11/16/2013, 05:11 am
Every quarter, the tech world's market research firms release metrics on how many PCs, phones and tablets Apple reported selling and compare these to estimates of what the rest of the world produced, resulting in headlines that minimize the importance of the world's largest and most profitable company. You might wonder why.

subset: commoncrawl


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Ambiente 2016
12.02.2016 - 16.02.2016 — Hall: 10.2 Stand: D 20B
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Incubus by Aiden Darke
Tale Post Countdown
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- 2013: Succubi Image of the Week 311 — A somewhat adult image for the Succubi of the week this time… While there are some things about this work, [...]
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- Angst? What Angst?: The family Blanco isn't very beaten up about Julio's death when Agent #2 goes to see them disguised as Trey Stone. Justified since Julio's not dead.
- Big Lipped Alligator Moment:
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Catalogue Number: P8M-8Z5L
- Author: Benedict de Spinoza
- Format:Paperback
- Publisher:Wordsworth Editions Ltd
- Published:05 March 2001
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Product description
- Edition: New ed
- Total Pages: 368
- Genre: History of Western philosophy
- Secondary Genre: Ethics & moral philosophy, Literary essays
- Illustrations: index
Benedict de Spinoza lived a life of blameless simplicity as a lens-grinder in Holland. And yet in his lifetime he was expelled from the Jewish community in Amsterdam as a heretic, and after his death his works were first banned by the Christian authorities as atheistic, then hailed by humanists as the gospel of Pantheism. His Ethics Demonstrated in Geometrical Order shows us the reality behind this enigmatic figure. First published by his friends after his premature death at the age of forty-four, the Ethics uses the methods of Euclid to describe a single entity, properly called both 'God' and 'Nature', of which mind and matter are two manifestations. From this follow, in ways that are strikingly modern, the identity of mind and body, the necessary causation of events and actions, and the illusory nature of free will.
Author's Biography
Benedict de Spinoza (1632-1677), Dutch philosopher born of Portuguese-Jewish parents. An independent thinker, Spinoza declined offers of academic posts and pursued his individual philosophical inquiry, earning his living as a grinder of lenses. He was a major figure in 17th Century Rationalism and is regarded as the most eminent expounder of Pantheism. He believed that God, the Universe and Nature are one and everything in the Universe is part of God. Ethics was his major work and was published posthumously in 1677.


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Exchange-traded funds are widely held as one of Wall Street's best ideas. They provide retail investors with cheap access to a wide array of asset classes and investment strategies; they are generally less costly than their mutual fund ancestors and are a lot more tax-efficient. However, Wall Street has a well-known tendency to turn good ideas into bad. ETFs have certainly reached the "investment fad" stage. Have they reached the bubble stage?
Here are five reasons to worry:
1. ETFs have gone from cheap and simple to expensive and obscure
ETFs came out of a simple idea: making index funds more easily tradable, cheaper and tax efficient. Yet, the recent years have seen a proliferation of obscure, illiquid and high-fee strategies. I am not talking about the risks of leveraged ETFs. Investors who do not understand that a 20% gain does not compensate for a 20% loss should not be investing at all.
I am talking about obscure indices tracking illiquid stocks at a very high cost. Did you know that Van Eck was planning a Mongolia ETF? While I am convinced that Mongolia offers tremendous opportunities for private equity and emerging markets hedge funds, a country with a $6 billion GDP and a stock market capitalization of about $1 billion is clearly not ready for the ETF crowd.
Or who needs the IQ Merger Arbitrage ETF (the aptly-named MNA)? The fund holds only five long positions on large pending merger targets, offset by a short position on S&P 500 futures. Unsurprisingly, the fund has gone nowhere since its launch in November 2009 (its 0.8% expense ratio is partly to blame).
Generating investment fees seems to be the only justification of many of these funds. According to my calculations, the average expense ratio of ETFs launched in the past five years was 0.58%, up from 0.25% in the prior five years.
In addition, one of the biggest attractions of ETFs, their transparency, is under threat. Active ETF providers are lobbying hard to be exempted from the obligation to report their daily holdings, which could increase the possibility for funds to trade further away from their underlying value.
2. About half of ETFs are losing money
Remember the Internet bubble with all these start-ups boasting stupendous page views and traffic growth and no revenue? The same is happening with ETFs. It takes between $25 and $50 million for an ETF to break even, depending on the strategy. About 558 of the 1,372 U.S.-listed ETFs have less than $25 million in assets. Most of them will never grow to make a penny.
ETFs closures are relatively painless for investors, who can recoup most of their assets through the sale of the holdings of the ETF trust. But closing a zombie fund causes unnecessary trading (and associated tax events), expenses that are incurred by investors.
3. Have you looked into the collateral of your synthetic ETF?
Synthetic ETFs account for about half of European ETF assets, a lot less in the U.S. where most funds are regulated by the 1940 investment act. Synthetic ETFs replicate the performance of an index by engaging in derivative trades, usually swaps. Providers must post collateral of at least 90% of the fund's value, but there is no requirement that the collateral matches the advertised objective of the fund.
Take the DB X Tracker MSCI Emerging Markets (XMEM:GR), a highly liquid ETF traded on eight exchanges with more than $3 billion in assets. Its collateral basket is made of 31% of Japanese stocks, 20% of U.S. stocks and 5.4% of French corporate bonds. Did I mention that that 10% of its bond holdings were rated less than A3?
All of the largest European ETFs (DB-X Tracker, RBS, Amundi, Lyxor and Credit Suisse) engage in synthetic index replication. Rules regarding collateralization of ETF assets, disclosure of collateral basket and swap structure vary across providers. I encourage investors to read a recent research note by Morningstar and choose the structure they are most comfortable with.
4. Synthetic ETFs create conflict of interest issues for investment banks
The collateral rules on synthetic ETFs create a nasty conflict of interest for investment banks that also provide ETFs. They can essentially use the ETF collateral basket as a cheap source of funding for market-making activities.
Banks win on all sides of the trade: They collect a management fee from the ETF, act as the counterparty to the fund's total return swap (in exchange for a fee, of course) and use the ETF collateral basket as a dumping ground for whatever securities are left on their trading books at the market close. With so many eggs in the same basket, investors in synthetic ETFs should pray that no European bank goes under.
This scenario is not so far-stretched: Synthetic ETFs posted redemptions of $2.8 billion this past quarter as several large ETF providers came under speculators' pressure (Société Générale (OTCPK:SCGLY) plunged by 15% on August 11 on rumors of liquidity problems).
5. Should you worry about excessive short interest and failed trades?
Disclaimer: These criticisms are at the border of conspiracy theories. H. Bradley, from the Kauffman Foundation, who recently testified to the senate banking committee on the dangers of ETFs, points out that short interest on certain ETFs often exceeds 100%. Short interest on XRT (SPDR retail) went up to about 500% of outstanding shares on September 30 due to chain-shorting (I sell short a share to another investor who sells it short, etc). In theory, margin requirements and the fact that ETF shares can be created at-will to cover short positions should prevent the proverbial run on the bank. But I wonder if the creation/redemption mechanism is robust enough to accommodate such imbalances in times of market stress.
H. Bradley also points that the total value of failed ETF trades soared to $272 billion in 2010, or about 60 % of all equity failed trades. As I understand it, it is not as bad as it sounds: Most of these failed trades are only delays and this is really a back-office issue that goes unnoticed by investors.
Overall, I remain convinced that ETFs are a useful innovation that ultimately benefits retail investors. The vast majority of ETFs present no risk for investors. But the proliferation of obscure and illiquid instruments and the conflicts of interest underlying synthetic ETFs could expose investors to losses. The consequences could go from mild (these obscure, high fee funds go broke) to severe (a major European investment bank goes bust leading to massive losses on synthetic ETFs) to terrifying (a replay of the May 2010 flash crash with a run on ETFs causing a breakdown of their trading infrastructure). While I do not believe in this worst-case scenario, the sheer size of the ETF market ensures that ETFs will play a large role in the next market crisis. When that happens, regulators will wish they had looked into these issues before the crash.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.


text:
Review: The Notebook
Set in Hungary 1944, twin brothers (András and László Gyémánt) are sent to the home of their cruel grandmother – a small farm in the country where the boys' parents believe they will be safe from the Nazis. Their new guardian, dubbed "the Witch" by the locals, refuses to feed the boys until they learn to work for their keep. Her abuse towards her grandchildren pushes them to abuse each other – to train themselves to withstand her punishments. Based on the book by Agota Kristof, Le Grand Cahier takes its title (The Notebook in English) from the journal...Read More


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The table is the center of the party, and a giraffe centerpiece is a particularly eye-catching centerpiece. Surrounded by turquoise, orange and yellow pops of color, he makes a cute focal point. Layering different colored plates and orange party favors, and orange and turquoise straws, brings in the colors from the invitations.
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The Jets have a lot of injured players coming into this game. In addition to Scott, linebacker Calvin Pace (shin), center Nick Mangold (ankle) and running backs Bilal Powell (shoulder) and Joe McKnight (ankle) have missed practice time this week.


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