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Allergan (NYSE:AGN)
Q3 2013 Earnings Call
October 29, 2013 11:00 am ET
James M. Hindman - Chief Financial Officer
David E. I. Pyott - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Jeffrey L. Edwards - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance & Business Development
Scott M. Whitcup - Chief Scientific Officer and Executive Vice President of Research & Development
Joann Bradley
Aaron Gal - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
Ken Cacciatore - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
Douglas D. Tsao - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Jami Rubin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Marc Harold Goodman - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Seamus Fernandez - Leerink Swann LLC, Research Division
David Risinger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Gregory B. Gilbert - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
David W. Maris - BMO Capital Markets U.S.
David G. Buck - The Buckingham Research Group Incorporated
Liav Abraham - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Annabel Samimy - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division
Vamil Divan - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
Hello, and welcome to the Allergan Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] At the request of the company, today's conference is being recorded. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
I would like to introduce today's conference host, Mr. Jim Hindman, Senior Vice President, Treasury Risk and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
James M. Hindman
Thanks, Rebecca. Good morning. With me for today's conference call is David Pyott, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Edwards, Executive Vice President, Finance and Business Development, Chief Financial Officer; Dr. Scott Whitcup, Executive Vice President, Research and Development, Chief Scientific Officer; and Jim Barlow, Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller.
Before we move ahead, I would like to remind you that certain statements that we'll make in this presentation are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect Allergan's judgment and analysis only as of today, and actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting Allergan's businesses. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.
For a more thorough discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with the forward-looking statements to be made in this conference call and webcast, we refer you to the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that is included in our third quarter 2013 earnings release, which was furnished to the SEC today on Form 8-K, as well as our filings with the SEC referenced in that disclaimer.
We will follow up the question-and-answer session of this call with a short listen-only segment, where we will provide additional miscellaneous information that relates to our business. Under Regulation FD, in order to be able to discuss this information freely during the quarter, we must be sure that it is in the public domain.
This conference call and accompanying webcast are being simultaneously broadcast over the Internet, with replays available for one week. You can access the information on our website at www.allergan.com.
At this point, I would like to turn the call over to David Pyott.
David E. I. Pyott
Great. Thanks, Jim. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Third quarter sales increased strongly over Q3 of 2012 by 14.0% to local currencies and by 12.9% to U.S. dollars. We're delighted that this is the highest growth rate we have delivered in the quarter since 2008, and that the expansion was broad-based across many product lines and businesses.
Furthermore, we're benefiting from our global reach in all of our operating regions, namely North America, Europe, Africa, Middle East. Latin America and Asia Pacific achieved at least double-digit growth in local currencies in the quarter. This is reflective of the strong growth being experienced in our product markets, and in general, of Allergan's market share gains as we introduce the steady stream of new innovative products to our customers around the world.
Regarding operating performance, we generated non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.23, an increase of 18% over Q3 of 2012, and well above the outlook provided on the last call of $1.18 to $1.20, thanks to the robust sales. This result was achieved after we continued to invest both into targeted sales and marketing programs to launch products and build our markets, as well as into R&D.
Regarding progress with our pipeline, we're pleased that we're delivering most of the major regulatory approvals we're seeing for this year. Since the last earnings call, we have received FDA approvals for VOLUMA and BOTOX for crow's feet lines, as well as the first positive opinion from the French agency for crow's feet lines, marking the first step in the mutual recognition procedure, which should lead to approvals for this indication across the 27 countries in the European Union, as well as Norway and Iceland.
Furthermore, we secured approvals for BOTOX for overactive bladder in Canada, the U.K. and a positive opinion in France. Also, the Japanese authorities approved our Natrelle breast implant products, including the round, soft cohesive line; the style 410 shaped anatomical line; as well as the tissue expander range. As such, Allergan is the only company to have regulatory approval for both breast augmentation and reconstruction in Japan. We expect to secure reimbursement for reconstruction post mastectomy around the end of the year.
Our global partnership with Medytox, excluding Korea, is a reflection of our long-term efforts to continue to build the facial aesthetics in therapeutic markets for neuromodulators, and should result in us offering an expanded suites of products, including a potential liquid presentation. The Medytox transaction is contingent upon receiving certain government approvals.
Regarding LEVADEX in the U.S., we're on track for filing by year end, all the data required by FDA in its complete response letter, and anticipate approval in Q2 of 2014. Regarding the disposal of the Obesity Intervention business, we're pleased that we have entered into a definitive agreement with Apollo Endosurgery and expect to close the transaction before year end.
Regarding RESTASIS and FDA's draft guidance in generics of cyclosporine, we're encouraged that 22 medical societies, patient groups and consumer groups submitted comments, all raising concerns about public health and patient safety if generics were to be approved of Allergan's complex oil and water emulsion. It is noteworthy that not one single submission was made in favor of the draft guidance. FDA's officials, even within the generics division, have admitted as recently as June 2013 that equivalents of ophthalmic drugs is "an emerging topic" being considered for FDA's regulatory science enhancement initiative.
Allergan has submitted studies of several test emulsions showing that these emulsions that meet the draft guidelines nonetheless significantly differ from RESTASIS. Based on our investigations, FDA has never, in the past, approved an ophthalmic emulsion based solely on in vitro data. In the coming months, the draft guidance has the highest management attention, and we will take every appropriate legal and regulatory action to uphold sound science and patient safety.
Now commenting the performance of the businesses. I'll commence with ophthalmic pharmaceuticals. Allergan sales increased in Q3 by 9.0% in local currencies with mid-single-digit growth in the U.S. being boosted by strong double-digit growth internationally. RESTASIS with 21% growth in local currencies continues to grow very strongly, not only in value, but also in volume, given good response to our increased investment in direct-to-consumer advertising in the U.S. and an expanding base of prescribers in U.S. optometry. In addition, RESTASIS is growing strongly in Canada and Turkey in particular.
In the glaucoma category, we're experiencing a difficult market in the U.S., and low Q3 growth for LUMIGAN given the impact of generics of major patent expired products. Ex-U.S., we enjoyed strong double-digit growth for both the bimatoprost and brimonidine franchises in the quarter, and are pleased that per IMS data for Q2, that's the last period for which data is available, the LUMIGAN became the #1 selling glaucoma product in the world.
In Europe, we launched GANFORT unit dose in September into the preservative-free category in the first wave of countries, namely in Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K., adding to the launches of LUMIGAN unit dose earlier in the year. In the U.S., we're encouraged that 2014 LUMIGAN formulary coverage in Part D and in commercial plans will be broadly similar to the situation in 2013. And now that we have converted all of the prescriptions over to the improved LUMIGAN 0.01% product, that we can concentrate all our efforts onto growing the brand again.
Regarding the world ophthalmic market per IMS for Q2, IMS shows first half of the year growth of the market at a robust 12%, boosted by 28% growth in retinal therapeutics and Allergan growing end market at 11%. For glaucoma, IMS reports world market growth at only 3% for the first half, given the U.S. situation, with Allergan worldwide growth at a healthy 10%.
Regarding the LUMIGAN franchise, IMS reports LUMIGAN and GANFORT growing double digits in Europe, Africa, Middle East, Latin America, Canada and Asia Pacific, as well as in Japan by Allergan's local partner, Senju, and also outperforming the growth of the Travatan franchise in each of these geographies. Going forward, we expect to benefit from Merck's deemphasis of ophthalmology worldwide.
For the artificial tears category, IMS, for the first half, shows a world market growth of 6% with Allergan underperforming with only 1% growth, given our priority on RESTASIS where it is available. Growth is, however, picking up from the introduction of OPTIVE Advanced, sold as OPTIVE Plus and plus unit dose in Europe, which was recently approved in Mexico, Chile and Turkey. In September, we also launched an exciting new product, OPTIVE Fusion [ph], a breakthrough combination of 2 effective polymers, hyaluronic acid and carboxy methylcellulose, in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Belgium, and we'll roll this product out across the world outside the U.S.
In the U.S., hyaluronic acid is not monographed as an OTC ingredient for ophthalmic pharmaceuticals. This is Allergan's first entry into the hyaluronic acid peer segment, which in Europe accounts for about 20% of the overall market.
OPTIVE Fusion will address the aqueous deficient segment, the dry eye market, while OPTIVE Plus offers relief to the lipid efficient dry eye sufferer.
OZURDEX growth continues on a sharp trajectory driven particularly by Europe and the U.S. We recently received reimbursement pricing in Brazil.
Moving on to BOTOX, sales in Q3 increased by 13.9% to local currencies, in line with year-to-date local currency growth of 13.6%, with year-to-date double-digit growth in both the aesthetic and therapeutic franchises.
Regarding the global market up to Q2, the last period for which data is available, we estimate first half of the year growth at 14%, with Allergan also growing at 14%. Allergan has gained some share in therapeutics as we established the new categories of Chronic Migraine in neurology, offset by some minor share loss in aesthetics as new products enter the market around the world.
Since the last earnings call, we received several major BOTOX product approvals, some referenced early in my comments, but in addition, BOTOX was approved for Chronic Migraine in Norway, for neurogenic bladder in Taiwan and for overactive bladder in Korea, Russia, the Czech Republic and Qatar.
In the U.S., the therapeutic business continues to grow strongly, driven by Chronic Migraine, the 2 bladder indications and an increased growth in neuro rehabilitation, the latter benefiting from a sales force expansion we executed at the end of 2012, and also due to the downsizing of Ipsen's commercial presence in the U.S. in the spring.
Regarding Chronic Migraine, we enjoyed broad access with 93% of commercial lines and 100% of Medicare lines having policy coverage and are continuing to improve results in the prior authorization process to drive down denial rates.
We have a steady flow of new injectors trained and adopting BOTOX into their practices and continuing high levels of product satisfaction, both by patients and their doctors. And emphasis is now in shepherding patients through their first year of treatment, helping to ensure patients become loyal repeat users, and also in decreasing the interval between injections closer to the labeled indication of every 3 months. In order to further build this market, we have invested heavily into branded TV advertising since July to increase patient awareness and to encourage patients to find a trained specialist.
Metrics regarding awareness, website visits and doctor searches are all trending positively.
Regarding urology, sales are on an even stronger upswing than in Chronic Migraine, albeit off a smaller base. Regarding reimbursement, we're able to secure coverage in some major commercial plans in September, with now 79% of all commercial lines enjoying policy coverage. 82% of Medicare lines have coverage.
Over 3,000 urologists are regular injectors out of an overall universe of all urologists at just over 10,000, many of which, of course, do not address incontinence. Urogynecologist, the subspecialty focused on female incontinence, is a group particularly focusing on this treatment option.
Preparing for further major growth in 2014, we're currently deepening our geographic reach by adding a modest number of field representatives in the United States. In Europe and the countries where we have secured reimbursement, we're satisfied with the initial demand for BOTOX for Chronic Migraine and for bladder, as well as with our continuing growth in the base movement disorders categories.
Turning to the aesthetic side of the BOTOX franchise, we enjoyed strong growth in Q3 in most of the principal markets of the world, with only a few exceptions where there are competitive products being introduced, such as is the case in Canada, Australia, Korea and Mexico. We're enjoying very strong end market growth in Russia, Japan, China, most countries in the East and South Asia and Brazil.
In the U.S., based on survey data, market growth in Q3 has accelerated to the low double digits. Furthermore, it is encouraging that BOTOX Cosmetic in September enjoyed 82% share and exactly the same as in September of 2012, with Xeomin share at 5% and the year-over-year gain coming at the expense of this quarter.
In Western Europe, we estimate that the market in Q3 is growing mid to high single digits and that we're currently holding share.
Facial aesthetics in Q3 grew strongly at 21.3% year-over-year in local currencies, in line with year-to-date growth, with all regions of the world registering strong growth levels. Of course, the market is poised for a further strong upswing with the recent FDA approval for VOLUMA and the introduction of our by-credit cost technology, including VOLBELLA and VOLIFT, to markets around the world. VOLBELLA was launched in Australia and Korea in September, VOLIFT in Australia. In the U.S., we're rapidly organizing training sessions for VOLUMA for our customers from mid-November, after which we will ship product. This is anticipated all to occur around mid-November.
In the U.S., based on survey data, we believe that the market in Q3 grew mid-single digits in volume. In Q3, JUVÉDERM was at a market share high with over 35% with year-over-year share gains coming from Restylane and RADIAS [ph].
In Europe, survey data for Q2, the last period for which data is available, shows the market continuing to expand strongly in the double digits, with Allergan leading this growth with the introduction of our new innovative products and rapidly gaining market share. We're encouraged that even markets in Southern Europe are enjoying strong growth.
Performance in the Breast Aesthetics business continued to improve in Q3, with year-over-year growth at 7.5% to local currencies versus year-to-date growth standing at 1.4%. This is due to Europe now coming past the periods in 2012 when the market and Allergan sales surged as a consequence of the PIP scandal and the consequent need for revision surgery.
In addition, we're benefiting in 2013 from the U.S. introduction of the shaped 410 Natrelle implant, continuing mix shift from low-price saline to higher-priced round and shaped gel implants, as well as an initial stocking shipment to Japan.
In Europe, our survey data for Q2 shows that the market end units declined 8% year-over-year due to the PIP issue, and is 7% smaller than in Q2 of 2011. Offsetting this is the market share gains Allergan has made since 2011.
Given the growth in Allergan's Q3 sales in the European region, we're assuming that the Q3 market has posted some recovery. In the U.S., based on survey data, the market is posting low volume growth, and we're willing to concede some market share due to low pricing from Mentor, which has really placed an emphasis on this, whereas Allergan is concentrated in the mix shift to value-added products and service.
Our skin care and other franchise grew 52.0% in Q3 year-over-year, boosted by the acquisition of SkinMedica and offset by a steep decline in SANCTURA XR as the product is being genericized. In terms of real performance, sales of our U.S. medical dermatology products increased 64% in Q3.
Turning to ACZONE, with diminished brand competition and a successful investment since June in direct-to-consumer advertising targeted at the adult female patient, ACZONE is growing rapidly, with the year-to-date August increase in turning prescriptions, per IMS, of 34% in a market growing only 2%. TAZORAC is also benefiting from our focus on the acne market, growing year-to-date trailing prescriptions by 11% and the retinoid market growing 4%.
Regarding real performance of our topical physician dispensed Skin Care business, we're pleased that SkinMedica is substantially outperforming in the U.S. market due to the benefits occurring to customers who are purchasing a full range of aesthetic products from Allergan, as well as due to our sales force presence.
Regarding LATISSE, sales increased in Q3 by 4.9% to local currencies with modest growth in the U.S. boosted by strong growth off a small base in Canada and Brazil.
I'll now pass over to Jeff Edwards who will comment our financial performance.
Jeffrey L. Edwards
Thanks, David, and good morning to all of you on the call. During the quarter, Allergan continued to demonstrate long-term strength of its business model by delivering strong sales and earnings performance. Our ability to exceed our EPS expectations is true reflection of the depth and breadth of Allergan's business and our strong competitive position within each of our specialty areas of focus. Our commitment to diligently managing expenses and thoughtfully targeting investments enabled the company to deliver non-GAAP diluted EPS results above the top end of our expectations.
Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the third quarter of 2013 were $1.23, with growth of 18% compared to the third quarter of 2012 from continuing operations. A reconciliation of all of the adjustments to GAAP earnings is set out in our earnings release. Excluding the effects of non-GAAP adjustments, amortization of acquired intangibles and discontinued ops, Allergan's Q3 2013 gross margin of 87.4% increased 90 basis points when compared to Q3 of the prior year, which was driven primarily by improved standard costs and the continuation of favorable pricing, region and product line mix, as well as positive royalty dynamics led by substantially reducing to our royalties.
The non-GAAP selling, general and administrative expenses to product and sales ratio from continuing operations for the third quarter was 38.1%, totaling $583 million. The comparable ratio and expense value for the same period in 2012 were 38.4% and $520 million, respectively. Consistent with our historic trend, we anticipate a sequential reduction in the non-GAAP SG&A expense to net sales ratio in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Non-GAAP research and development expenses were 16.4% of product mix sales for the quarter, totaling $251 million, an increase in spend of approximately $24 million over the $227 million or 16.8% of product net sales spent in the third quarter of 2012.
With respect to our balance sheet, consolidated Allergan sales outstanding was 54 days, while consolidated Allergan inventory days on hand was 133 days. This quality 54-day DSO result has been generated in spite of continuing ongoing upward pressure related to trends to longer terms in certain foreign markets and emerging markets.
With respect to end-of-quarter DOH levels, they are slightly higher than previous quarters due primarily to the JUVÉDERM VOLUMA inventory build in anticipation of the recently received U.S. approval.
In the third quarter, operating cash flow after CapEx was approximately $545 million. On a year-to-date basis, operating cash flow after CapEx was just over $1 billion. At the end of the third quarter, Allergan's cash and equivalents and short-term investments in cash and equivalents and short-term investments net of debt positions totaled approximately $3.2 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively.
We currently project capital expenditures to be in the range of $150 million to $200 million for the full year of 2013.
Regarding full year expectations for 2013, Allergan estimates product net sales in the range of $6,125,000,000 to $6,200,000,000, and our full year non-GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations to be in the range of $4.74 and $4.76, which includes -- excludes the impact of the 2012 R&D tax credit reported in 2013 as a non-GAAP adjustment and includes the $0.07 estimated dilution impact related to the MAP Pharmaceuticals acquisition.
With respect to the divestiture of the Obesity Intervention business on October 28, 2013, Allergan entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Obesity Intervention business to Apollo Endosurgery for an upfront cash payment of $75 million, subject to certain adjustments and certain additional considerations. The transaction is expected to close in 2013, subject to customary closing conditions. For your information, expectations for other lines of the income statement and specific product sales expectations are included in the current release.
With that, operator, I'd like now to open the call for questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Ronny Gal with Sanford Bernstein.
Aaron Gal - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
The question's about BOTOX. Can you tell us a little bit about the price per unit of BOTOX? Has there been upward pressure on the product? And should we think about the liquid talks as launching both aesthetic and therapeutic, or are you likely to target that product into 1 of the 2 market segments?
David E. I. Pyott
Ronny, I missed the point on upward pressure. It sounded good, but I want to answer precisely what you're driving at. I like upward pressure.
Aaron Gal - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
So we obviously do a survey of aesthetic franchise every quarter. We noticed that some of the physicians were discussing fewer discounts on the lower end of the market, which suggests as to what upward pressure on price per unit of BOTOX in the United States.
David E. I. Pyott
Yes, okay. I'll take that question first. Clearly, if one looks at the baseline of 2012 when we naturally expected the reintroduction of Xeomin, why it's a market share leader, not only invest to grow the category, but also to defend. And if we now then move a year later, obviously, when you start, let's say, doing less promotional activity, you do have a good effect in terms of net selling prices post direct-selling reductions from list to net. So good work being done in terms of net price realized. Your second question regarded our collaboration with Medytox and liquid. Clearly, liquid would have predominantly greatest interest in aesthetics, but we're also looking at some other things with Medytox as well. It's a very interesting company in Korea with good science.
The next question is from Ken Cacciatore with Cowen & Co.
Ken Cacciatore - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
Just the question is if you look at -- you have a very clean balance sheet and you've combined that with a global commercial platform. It would seem obvious to many of us that you should be hoping or seeking to leverage your balance sheet more aggressively. But when we talked to investors, some argue that there aren't actually many assets available in your therapeutic categories or in aesthetic and derm. So it's an issue that you'd like to be more aggressive, but can't find the assets? Or you just don't think being more aggressive with a balance sheet is necessary or wise here?
David E. I. Pyott
Okay. So this is always the acquisition question. We're constantly looking at various deals that can be acquisitions of companies, they can be licenses, they can be collaborations. And I think if you just run your eye across our press release, you can see, just in the last 3 months, we've done some things, although they haven't really devoured vast amounts of cash. So clearly, let me restate what has always been the overarching goal, which is to put our balance sheet to work. But of course, you also want us as investors to be good stewards of our capital and invest and acquire wisely, both for good strategic reasons and also for good return.
The next question is from Douglas Tsao with Barclays.
Douglas D. Tsao - Barclays Capital, Research Division
David, I was just hoping you could perhaps provide some context for the new approvals that you've had recently in the Aesthetics business, in particular, VOLUMA, as well as BOTOX for crow's feet. I suspect or we've heard that there are sort of off-label use of those products and those sort of indications already, but obviously, new approvals allow you to market into the -- into them, specifically. So can you help us understand how you expect to sort of capitalize on this and how significant are these approvals?
David E. I. Pyott
Okay, so let's take VOLUMA first. This is a product that clearly has been heavily expected by, particularly, the key opinion leaders because those are the people that typically travel to conferences in Europe and indeed Latin America and Asia. And so they've heard from their colleagues, sometimes they've observed their colleagues injecting this product. As I've shared in my remarks, if we look at already robust market growth in Europe post VOLUMA introduction, VOLBELLA, VOLIFT, Allergan is growing of the order of 2x faster than the market. So you know who the locomotive is. Also, as a reminder, if we look at Canada, which is probably the most similar market to the U.S., not just due to geographic proximity, but other reasons, I estimate that the introduction of VOLUMA added to probably about 40% market growth over about a 2-year period. So clearly, the U.S. is a bigger market, you got to be careful with applying percentages to a bigger and bigger breadbox. But clearly, we're going to have, really, a dramatic effect and we're going to invest very heavily in training. Coming back on to BOTOX for crow's feet, that will be the only area where you'd be correct, that there has been some off-label use of BOTOX for crow's feet around the world where there are some markets, however, where it is already indicated. The real advantage for us is now that we can conduct training because, of course, we always want to ensure great results by as many of our injectors as possible. And the only way to address these issues was through medical affairs hitherto extremely inefficient and now, we command training programs. And I think it's going to also reinject reasons -- (reinject) and really create more stimulus for physicians to go back for advanced injector training. And that will have a benefit not just on crow's feet, but for the indicated -- hitherto indicated for head lines as well. So these things are really significant. And I think when you reflect upon all of my market share data, you can see the world consumer is alive and well, even in places like Southern Europe where I still -- maybe I'm not that surprised because I live there, but I'm amazed by just how much consumers still have money in their pocket to remain looking great.
The next question is from Jami Rubin with Goldman Sachs.
Jami Rubin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
David, I can't imagine that you're very happy with Allergan's share price performance over the past 2 years, we're now approaching through the second year of underperformance, and the lack of transparency on the sustainability of the generic RESTASIS franchise continues to create investor anxiety. Can the company -- I know you've already commented upon -- on VD [ph], but can you comment on your sense of urgency to explore other value-enhancing opportunities? You do have tremendous balance sheet capacity, you have tremendous restructuring capacity. How high a priority is this, just given the years of underperformance? And as a related question, are there any scenarios ahead of May 2014 where investors can gain visibility on whether there are ANDAs on file for generic RESTASIS?
David E. I. Pyott
Okay. So first of all, if you reflect upon my remarks about RESTASIS, our absolute conviction is that the science just isn't there for creating bioequivalence based on an in vitro pathway alone. Now obviously, we're taking every possible step that we can, also to try and educate those in the agency that are willing to listen to us. We've commented upon our test emulsions being completely different than RESTASIS. However, following, if you like, the cookbook that they put out, that would suggest that the cookbook just doesn't work. Now, how the agency, meaning the generics division, will comment in the public domain, one can only conjecture. That's their business to do their business. So in a nutshell on RESTASIS, we're planning clearly to uphold good science and patient safety. That being said, we're not ostriches around here. We do think about scenarios and we've clearly talked about our ability to restructure, if it became necessary. Jeff, on the last call, also remarked about our ability to buy back stock should we be required to do so in a negative scenario. And I think earlier, when I was addressing the issue of acquisitions, it's quite clear that we have a lot of capacity for acquisitions, and we do our homework quietly and discreetly. And you do see some activity from us. And maybe one day, there'll be something bigger. You just -- like you saw back in 2006 when we acquired Inamed.
The next question is from Marc Goodman with UBS.
Marc Harold Goodman - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
David, you mentioned glaucoma is an area...
David E. I. Pyott
Can you speak up, Marc, just so I get all your points.
Marc Harold Goodman - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
I'm sorry. David, you mentioned that glaucoma was an area of weakness in the quarter, tough third quarter in the U.S. I think you said it was due to generics impacting now, and I was a little confused why are the generics impacting more this quarter than they have in the past. And then secondly, can you just update us on emerging markets? How's the growth going there and what are some new countries that you're looking to expand in over the next year or so?
David E. I. Pyott
Okay. So if we look at glaucoma, you can really see it's a tale of 2 different cities because if we look at LUMIGAN, year-to-date, the number happens to be the same. We've had a double-digit decline in sales of LUMIGAN in the United States, offset by double-digit growth or literally, internationally, meaning the whole conglomerate of the rest of the world x United States. So very different market conditions. Now to be fair beyond LUMIGAN alone, of course, we have the benefits overseas of GANFORT and now, we have the introduction of LUMIGAN unit dose, most recently, GANFORT unit dose. And preservative-free in Europe is probably of the order of 5%, 6% of the overall glaucoma category. So I'm just giving you the context. It's not going to change the course of LUMIGAN growth, but it's a nice, little additional booster. So another positive thing coming back to United States is we've now completed the switch from 0.03%, the original product, to 0.01%. That clearly consumes some energy to make sure that happen logistically with as many prescribers as possible. Now that's behind us, we can really focus on growing the brand again. We have some good data in the marketplace, recent studies conducted by Medical Affairs showing that when patients move from another prostaglandin to LUMIGAN, they can get an additional drop in pressure of the order of 3 or 4 millimeters of mercury. And we know from our interactions with glaucoma specialists that this data is quite compelling to them. So I'm being careful to look for silver linings in black clouds, but in recent months, there does seem to be a little bit of an uptick in volume of prescriptions and growth year-over-year. Looking at emerging markets, historically, we've been growing in the upper teens. That continues to be the case, we have some really good growth numbers. When you think back not just on my comments on this call, but prior ones in terms of all the product introductions we've been receiving, it's pretty easy to work out that the BRIC countries, if we just want to take a subset, Brazil, Russia, India, China are all doing well. For us, Japan is kind of an emerging market, although, of course, it's not, for most, just due to the history of the spinoff of AMO a decade ago. And so Japan is also in a really good upswing right now, both directly through Allergan for aesthetics, breast prosthetics just on the cusp. And then we don't see the sales, but we see the economic benefit of the success of GSK with BOTOX Therapeutics and Senju with our glaucoma products. And Jeff kind of makes remarks, and that explains why the royalty receipts are growing quite healthily. In terms of new markets, ones we're looking at next are ones like Vietnam, Indonesia. We're deepening our presence in the Middle East. We're going to create a hub in Dubai. I was just listening today about the huge new airport they're constructing. It is really a zone of enormous activity right now. And we're also further out looking at not just North Africa where we're present, but other parts of Africa, because the time will come in the next 5 to 10 years. And there is an increase in disposable income and improved physician training, which is the real key, of course, for our products. So I hope that gives you a good overview of all of those things. And a comment I would make about the health of our markets, I think many analysts and investors underestimate the carrying power of our long list of approvals since 2010, which number no less than 11. And as you know, products don't suddenly happen in a year. They take 5, 6 years typically to get to peak.
The next question is from Seamus Fernandez with Leerink.
Seamus Fernandez - Leerink Swann LLC, Research Division
So just a quick question on -- if you can provide us with an update on the progress with LEVADEX. And again, David, how you would see LEVADEX enhancing and sitting into the BOTOX market? And if you would seek to expand the sales force early on next year to promote that product, should we see -- should we see approval prospects being positive?
Scott M. Whitcup
So this is Scott. I'll take the first part of the question and turn it over to David in terms of marketing and positioning. So on the LEVADEX, as David said, we've been gathering the data required to answer all the questions from the FDA's complete response letter. We believe that currently, in-house, we have those data. We'll put together our response, and as we stated, have that submitted back to FDA by the end of the year. Currently, by timelines, they would have a couple of quarters to go through that, which is why we'd said we expect approval second quarter of 2014.
David E. I. Pyott
Right. So coming back to the marketing side of the house, I don't want to say that delay is ever a good thing, but at least, it's given us the opportunity to single-mindedly focus on establishing BOTOX for Chronic Migraine in neurology practices. So delay is never good, but at least, we've had no distraction of trying to establish 2 products simultaneously. That being said, we think the call overlap with BOTOX for Chronic Migraine is extremely high. This will be a sales visit where you can just roll straight from one product into the other. Regarding coverage beyond the neurology specialty alone, we've been very careful to limit the amount of training capacity we offer to non-board-certified neurologists so far. And as that capacity becomes available, then we extend. So I think the best way to think about a bigger move into expanding sales force into the very top end of other specialties. And I think the word PCP is probably not right because when you really look at these physicians, they're not board-certified neurologists, but they certainly look like neurologists when you see what they prescribe. And being a practical kind of person, at that point, I don't really care what kind of doctor you are long as you're qualified and knowledgeable. So in summary, I think the expansion into the top end of others will occur sometime in 2015, following on from Scott's remark that we expect product approval in Q2. So we want to focus on the neurology specialty first and then go for expansion.
The next question is from David Risinger with Morgan Stanley.
David Risinger - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
David, my question is about pricing. Generally speaking, I think that most investors, including me, think of Allergan as having upside to price in various categories of its business. So my question is can you comment on the Mentor price pressure in a little bit more detail and then talk about opportunities for price inflation in other areas at the company, in particular, for BOTOX?
David E. I. Pyott
Yes. I think when you reflect upon my comments, if I take -- let's take the Aesthetics business first. You'll see that we've done a pretty good job of mix shift inside the Breast Aesthetics business. So we've avoided what I'd call price discounting practice by others. And maybe, to some degree, it's a fight between the 2 other companies trying to -- it's a little bit of a race to the bottom. We have abstained from that, particularly in the United States. When you think about my comments about dermal fillers, there are 2 we've done, I think, a good job, where new products that are better performers in terms of delivery of results. And we look at the VOLUMA label, which is a very favorable, saying, duration up to 2 years. And quite frankly, one of the reasons VOLUMA took so long to get approved was FDA needed to see the long-term data that this product does indeed, as it should, hyaluronic acid go away. So as much as I was frustrated waiting, as they say, sometimes the best things take time. And I don't want to say JUVÉDERM is like or VOLUMA's like great wine, red wine, but it is a great product. So lots of good mix shifts both within breast aesthetics, as well as fillers. And I think, clearly, in the past, I've signaled that we believe a time will come where it's time to take some very modest increases of price for BOTOX as well, given that we haven't had a price increase in the United States for, I could be wrong in my numbers, but it's like 2008. So you can do the math, it's a long time. And clearly, we're -- on the therapeutic side, we're the one and only in migraine and neurology. And BOTOX, in the scheme of biologics, is a very, very economical product to payors and with great results. So overall, I'd like to tell you a good outlook for pricing. And of course, one thing I admitted to answer on the last call is, of course, for next year, LEVADEX is another nice growth driver as we indeed we expect OZURDEX for DME to be both in the U.S. and Europe.
Greg Gilbert with Bank of America.
Gregory B. Gilbert - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
I have a 2-part question on capital deployment. David, one element of your acquisition strategy has been to find companies that can offer 10% or better revenue growth. I was wondering though if you and the board are open to deals that create economic value and add to franchise value even if they don't meet that revenue growth threshold. And then as a follow-up to your comments on share buyback, it sounds like you view that as an emergency lever rather than something that could be a good idea near-term. Any comments on that?
David E. I. Pyott
Right. Well, why don't I take the last one first where I would be personally disappointed if we just were to go into a stock repurchase program because we're unable to find any other better ways to deploy our capital. Now, that being said, if Jim Hindman has some ridiculous sum of money in his treasury, even I get off my throne and become practical, right? Then your question on profile of potential companies, clearly, we're looking to franchises that have growth potential because Allergan is a growth company. Assuming that we manage our way through the generic challenges of LUMIGAN and RESTASIS, we have really good growth outlook for the coming 5 or so years. So then answering your question on assets that might not have such great growth profile, one could extract huge synergies, and therefore, get growth that way. I would be much more skeptical about them, although like everything, if there was a real compelling story that I believe there was a multi-year benefit that Allergan would be a company with greater and improved strategic position at the end of that, then that's something I would consider. So I'm not so adamant to say never, but I would certainly be looking with quite skeptical eyes on why would we be doing something like that. I'm not really interested in same strategic position, just cutting the haircut of cost for 1 or 2 years and then arguing that we're a better company at the end. I don't think you as investors would particularly believe us either.
David Maris with BMO Capital Markets.
David W. Maris - BMO Capital Markets U.S.
On the pipeline, can you tell us what you expect out of the upcoming AAO? And in particular...
James M. Hindman
David, could you speak up a little bit?
David W. Maris - BMO Capital Markets U.S.
Maybe you could just tell us a little bit of what you expect from the upcoming AAO, in particular on DARPin, what should investors look for in the data or ignore in the data that would give any insight into why a fixed dose regimen might work?
Scott M. Whitcup
So David, this is Scott. On the DARPin data, our plan is to go through the full Phase II program. So as we've said, there's 3 stages to that program. The first, stage 1 was a dose escalation. I think from there, you'll get some idea on efficacy in duration. The Stage II was a randomized comparison to RESENTIS [ph], but as we've said, there was PRN [ph] treatment and no loading doses. So from there, I think you'll have to realize that the key data to give you an understanding of what you might expect in Phase III is the typical paradigm where patients receive 3 monthly loading doses and then you go to a fixed schedule. That, we're investigating in the Stage III. We'll talk about the study design, but we'll not have data from that last stage. I tend to ignore no data so I wouldn't ignore anything, but I think there'll be enough data for investors and physicians and scientists to understand the potential of DARPin and to understand the decisions we've made on the development program. And that will be presented at the Retina Subspeciality Day, which is just before the official AAO meeting.
David Buck with Buckingham Research Group.
David G. Buck - The Buckingham Research Group Incorporated
First, David, for the Japanese market for breast implants, can you talk a little bit about the...
James M. Hindman
David, can you talk up? I'm sorry, we can't hear.
David G. Buck - The Buckingham Research Group Incorporated
So on Japan and breast augmentation, can you talk a little bit about the pace of the rollout? For glaucoma in the U.S., can you talk about whether you're still expecting to see a soft market and some of the same dynamics in 2014? And then for RESTASIS generics, can you talk about what needs to happen for the FDA to, in fact, basically backtrack on their draft guidance, what are the next steps?
David E. I. Pyott
Okay. So the first question was on timing of rollout of Japan breast aesthetics line. As I've stated, x factory, there is a small initial stocking effect already in Q3. There'll probably be a little bit more in Q4 in terms of getting real sales underway that will start from the beginning of '14. Looking at the U.S. glaucoma market, I commented in my prepared remarks that formulary coverage for LUMIGAN is pretty much the same across the board for both commercial plans and Part D. So my expectation is that we will start gaining a little bit of market share in LUMIGAN in 2014 given the data we have and the focus we have on the product. And finally, in terms of predicting what generics division will do on RESTASIS, I really wish I was a soothsayer, but I'm not. And all I can do is take the appropriate action on our side. And I suppose one question that hasn't been asked that I should be addressing is to say some people say, well, will we know if and when you file the citizens' petition? And the answer is maybe we won't have to. But clearly, if the agency doesn't take the appropriate action, we'll be given no other recourse. And when that filing occurs, it becomes public extremely quickly. So that means everybody knows at the same time.
The next question is from Liav Abraham with Citi.
Liav Abraham - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Just a question on long-term guidance.
David E. I. Pyott
We can't hear you. If you could talk really closely into the microphone, please.
Liav Abraham - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. So my question is on long-term guidance. Can you concern that you're still confident in your aspirational targets of medium-term, double-digit earnings growth? And then also earlier this year, you spoke about 10% medium-term topline organic growth. Is this something that you are still comfortable with? And can you remind us of the primary drivers that will help you attain this goal given the incremental pressures to your drive franchise, not just from a generic, but also from potential incremental brand of competition?
David E. I. Pyott
Right. Well, I mean, I think if you first of all reflect upon my remarks about upholding good science and patient safety for RESTASIS, I believe that we can be successful in defending the RESTASIS franchise for quite a long length of time. So that's a very important starting point. Nobody has directly asked me the question about the LUMIGAN patent trial. The way that I would put that in context is to say the general arguments about the novelty of the formulations and the patents are extremely similar to all of the other glaucoma patent trials that we've gone through in the last, call it, 10 years. That being said, of course, and some of you know that I'm a lawyer, every time you go to court, you have a different judge and a different jury. And patents are both swords and shields. And when you put them up for attack, you cannot guarantee that you'll win on every occasion. So I have to give that a fair balance. So those 2 things stated, assuming that we're successful in defending RESTASIS from inappropriate bioequivalence and in vitro assays and we prevail in the LUMIGAN trial, the outlook for this company looks strong. And I can reiterate about 10 percentage revenue growth and double-digit earnings growth on a non-GAAP basis. And when you think through why I say that, that is because almost all of our markets worldwide are in good growth situation. Even in glaucoma, when you read the transcript or maybe you jotted it down, end market, IMS reports Allergan growing 10% year-to-date June in glaucoma, which is pretty good considering that the market only grew 3% also per IMS worldwide year-to-date June. And think about the 11 products we've had approved since the end of 2010, if I just take the FDA data, let alone all the other incremental approvals we've had, whether it be in Europe or Asia or elsewhere. And I do give you a lot of detail on that on every call. So some really good metrics, some good situations to give us really carrying power for the next 5 or so years. And that, of course, stating the obvious again, is all based on things we know today and no fantasies of the acquisition or license deal that's just around the corner. We never count those until they're signed.
The next question is from Annabel Samimy with Stifel, Nicolaus.
Annabel Samimy - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division
Most of them have been answered, but I did note that a common theme here are on OZURDEX. It was growing sharply and that you also mentioned that it's one of the medium-term growth drivers in DME. So can you help us understand that market a little bit, what sharply means, and how big does the DME opportunity offer to you?
David E. I. Pyott
Right. So why don't Scott handle, if you like, the medical condition side first and then I'll add some color in terms of how big this could be.
Scott M. Whitcup
So in terms of diabetic macular edema, OZURDEX has been approved for 2 relatively small indications of uveitis and retinal vein occlusion. Because of the epidemic in diabetes, unfortunately, the number of patients with diabetic eye disease is exploding. There are anti-VEGF therapies out there that have been approved, but if you look at the data, there is a significant proportion of patients, some studies, approximately 30%, who either don't respond well to the anti-VEGFs or who need additional therapy. And we believe that the data will support that OZURDEX is a great treatment for diabetic macular edema and that they're, even with anti-VEGF therapy, a huge unmet need. In addition, OZURDEX has given approximately every 6 months. And for patients who have the burden of requiring oftentimes monthly injections, this is a great alternative. So we believe that the DME approval will help further spur growth of OZURDEX. And I'll turn it over to David in terms of the growth rate.
David E. I. Pyott
Yes, well, considerable means of the order of magnitude of 50%. I think to give investors a greater handle on this, we will certainly consider once DME's approved, sharing what are the sales with you because I certainly appreciate seeing is believing. And I think another thing also that probably has, to some degree, confused investors is the fact that we're so dramatically outselling OZURDEX in Europe relative to the United States. And with all respect for you, of course, most of you are based in the United States, and naturally, you then tend to consult key opinion leaders in this country, and that is totally normal, whereas in Europe, there are some markets that are very, very strong for OZURDEX. In fact, when I look at our patient share, now don't get confused between patient share and value share, given that LUCENTIS is -- and [indiscernible] are very expensive products, we're in the double-digit number in terms of patient share in retinal disease. So that gives you a little bit of an insight on what could be coming down the road.
The last question is from Vamil Divan with Credit Suisse.
Vamil Divan - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
So just one quick one. I know -- I appreciate the comments you've made around...
James M. Hindman
Can you please speak up? I'm sorry, we can't hear on this end.
Vamil Divan - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
Sure, sorry. I appreciate the comments you made around RESTASIS and around the FDA. Now just around the RESTASIS X, if there's any comments you can provide regarding, if nothing else, just timing, how long that might be...
James M. Hindman
Yes, Vamil, it's cutting out. [Technical Difficulty]
Vamil Divan - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
Just about RESTASIS X, if you can provide any color around the potential for that product in terms of timing and how long it would take to get through a Phase III potential to the market?
Scott M. Whitcup
Okay. So what we've said is that you will see posted on clinicaltrials.gov approximately end of this year that the study design for RESTASIS X, it will give you some insight into what the product is for competitive reasons we haven't settled out. But that study will be a Phase II. So although we're excited about the potential, it's still a bit away from Phase III in the market. But you'll get some initial insight end of this year and then we'll start talking more about what it is subsequently.
James M. Hindman
We'd like to thank you for your participation today. If you have any other further questions, Joann Bradley, David Nakasone and I will be available immediately following the call. Joann will now take 5 minutes to give you market share data.
Joann Bradley
Thank you, Jim. The following market share data we are providing is Allergan's good phase estimate based upon the best available sources for data, such as IMS, as well as Allergan's internal estimates.
The market size, share and gross rate information is a moving annual total or trailing 12 months as of the end of June 2013, except to where noted as year-to-date through June 2013. The market for ophthalmics is approximately $19.8 billion, growing at a rate of 12%. Allergan's market share is 16%. Year-to-date, the market is growing 12% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is 16%. The market for glaucoma, approximate $5.3 billion, growing at a rate of 2%. Allergan's market share approximates 26%. Year-to-date, that market is growing 3% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is 27%.
The market for ocular allergy approximates $1.5 billion, growing at a rate of 4%. Allergan's market share approximates 3%. Year-to-date, that market is growing 6% and year-to-date, Allergan's market share is 3%. The plane ocular anti-infective market is roughly $1.4 billion. That market is flat and Allergan's share is 7%. Year-to-date, that market is growing 1% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is 7%.
The market for ophthalmic nonsteroidal anti-inflammatories is around $540 million, growing at a rate of 12%. Allergan's market share is 6%. Year-to-date, that market is growing 9% and year-to-date, Allergan's market share is 6%. The artificial tears market, inclusive of ointments, is approximately $1.7 billion, growing at a rate of 7%. Allergan's share is 21%. Year-to-date, that market growth is 6% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is 21%.
U.S. topical market for acne and psoriasis is roughly $2.6 billion with an annual growth rate of 9% and Allergan's share is roughly 10%. Year-to-date, that market is growing 10% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is 11%.
The top 10 markets for neuromodulators are roughly $2 billion, growing at a rate of roughly 14%, and BOTOX has approximately an 84% market share. Year-to-date, that market is growing 14% and year-to-date, BOTOX market share is 84%.
The worldwide market for neuromodulators is roughly $2.6 billion, growing at a rate of roughly 13%. BOTOX has approximately a 77% market share. Year-to-date, that market is growing 14% and year-to-date, BOTOX market share is 76%.
The worldwide market for dermal facial fillers is roughly $1.1 billion, growing at a rate of approximately 9%. Allergan has approximately a 38% market share. Year-to-date, that market is growing 12% and year-to-date, Allergan's share is around 39%.
The worldwide breast aesthetics market for aesthetic and reconstructive is roughly $900 million, growing at a rate of around 1%. Allergan has approximately a 41% market share. Year-to-date, that market is declining around 3%. And year-to-date, Allergan's share is about 41%. And that concludes our call for today. Thank you.
Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
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18 Stupid Things Celebrities Have Said on Twitter
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Hilaria Baldwin Flaunts Post-Baby Body FOUR DAYS After Giving Birth!
Last week, Alec and Hilaria Baldwin welcomed a baby boy named Rafael Thomas Baldwin.
It's the second child for Hilaria and the third for Alec, who's also father to 19-year-old Ireland Baldwin.
Alec Baldwin and Wife Welcome Second Child!
Alec Baldwin finally has a reason to withhold his temper.
The actor and his wife just welcomed their second child into the world, with Hilaria Baldwin taking to Instagram to make the big announcement.
15 Famously Fun Baby Reveals: You Could Have Done Better, Kim!
Ireland Baldwin Defends Famous Dad, Gives Update from Rehab
As previously reported, Ireland Baldwin has checked herself into rehab, citing "emotional trauma" as the vague reason for why she has sought professional assistance.
This announcement, of course, has spawned many theories as to what is wrong with the 19-year old, with many speculating that her famous father may have played some role in Ireland's demise.
17 Really Stupid Things Stars Have Said on Twitter
Earlier this week, Lindsay Lohan made her latest mistake in life, dropping the N-Word while boasting about a Kanye West concert on Twitter.
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As celebrity babies go, 2015 is shaping up to be quite a banner year.
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Shares of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) are down more than 15% on fears of a breakup in the oligopoly pricing discipline for potash. The long-term demand from more than seven billion hungry mouths along with significant barriers to entry will support the industry as a whole. Potash Corporation is positioned to outperform the industry on its scale advantage and is significantly undervalued.
Best of Breed in a Long-term Industry
Potash Corporation is the world's largest fertilizer producer by capacity. It is the largest producer in potash and the third largest in nitrogen and phosphate. Without going into a lengthy chemistry lesson, those three numbers you see on all fertilizer products (i.e. 20-10-5) represent the percentage of the three key ingredients; nitrogen, phosphate and potash.
If we want to continue to feed the world's 7 billion plus population, we will always need more fertilizer and more of its three core ingredients.
In fact, we are probably going to be needing a lot more fertilizer over the next several decades. On the current pace of population growth, studies show that we need to double global crop production by 2050 to meet food needs. This would require an annual increase in crop yields of 2.4%, well above the average annual increase of 1.2% across the staple crops - corn, rice, wheat and soybeans. Some research even points to a decline in yields due to extreme weather patterns.
On top of rising long-term demand, Potash Corporation has been able to realize faster growth on its size and operational efficiency. The company supplies approximately 20% of global potash capacity, 5% of global phosphate capacity and 2% of global nitrogen capacity.
Shown in the graphic below, the company has historically been able to realize higher compound rates of growth in volume than achieved across the industry. Management has controlled costs extremely well with a 40% operating margin, better than 99% of peers in the industry, and the company's return on equity of 24% is better than 85% of the companies in the chemicals manufacturing industry.
The dividend payout has been increased by 950% since January 2011 and a 19% compound growth rate over the last 20 years. On top of the 4.3% cash yield, the company announced a $2 billion share repurchase authorization in July of this year, representing 5% of outstanding shares through July 2014.
Lower potash prices justify some weakness but long-term thesis still intact
The share price plummeted more than 23% in late July when Russia's Uralkali quit a cartel agreement with the Belaruskali Potash Company. Prices for potash had previously been kept high by lower production, much in the same way that OPEC attempts to control oil prices, but have come down sharply as companies threaten to produce at full capacity.
Shares of potash producers have rebounded lately on news that Russian authorities are putting the pressure on Uralkali to come back to the negotiating table. I am less positive that the rift between Uralkali and Belarusian Potash Company will be mended anytime soon and weakness in potash prices will probably persist well into 2014. Prices in China could fall as low as $300 per metric ton while prices in Brazil should be a little stronger but as low as $350 per metric ton. This would be a significant drop from $400 and $440 per metric ton prices in the second quarter 2013, but I think it has already largely been baked into the shares.
Seeking Alpha contributor Brett Jensen presents a strong case for a resolution between Uralkali and BPC in a recent article. He also names Potash Corporation as his favorite play in the sector and argues that the sustainable dividend puts a floor on the stock price.
The long-term demand for potash, as well as for shares of Potash Corporation, remains strong on yield demand and industry characteristics.
Extremely high costs make new entrants in the industry unlikely. Greenfield projects for potash take a minimum of 7 years and can cost between $4.7 and $6.3 billion while nitrogen or phosphate greenfield projects take between 3 and 4 years and cost between $1.8 billion and $2.3 billion to start.
Over last year, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) has reported that the timeline for most potash projects has slipped by six to 18 months and several greenfield projects have been canceled. The delays and cancellations have removed approximately 8 million tons of potash capacity from the organization's outlook for 2016.
As we have already seen, the lower prices will result in cancelled projects and it's doubtful that many of the smaller producers can achieve their capacity targets. Over the longer-term, this should provide a great tailwind to Potash in an industry that is already experiencing strong demand growth.
Within the company's own expansion program, 88% of an $8.05 billion potash expansion program has been completed with about $0.97 billion remaining. In light of weaker near-term prices, it is doubtful the company will announce any more large-scale expansions and free cash flow could jump once the project is complete. Capital spending of almost $2 billion in 2012 is forecast to just under $1 billion by 2015. Post-expansion, management expects to begin a cost reduction program through lower per-ton fixed costs and production optimization that could bring costs down by up to 25%.
Shares trade for 12.7 times trailing earnings, a slight premium to the industry average of 12.4 times but well off of the company's five-year average multiple of 18.8 times earnings. In the near-term, expectations are fairly low with revenue projected to decline 2.2% this year to $7.27 billion and drop to $7.22 billion in 2014. Expectations are for a 4.6% decline earnings to $2.30 per share in 2014 which would mean a net margin of 28%, under the company's five-year average 31% margin. With a significant cost cutting program on the way and a share buyback, there is a strong chance for an upside surprise in the shares.
My estimate for the share's fair value is based on 10% dividend growth over the next four years, followed by 7% growth through the next six years and a 3% terminal growth rate. This is extremely conservative given the company's history and future demand for fertilizers but still produces a $39.02 present value on the shares.
Adding to my Long-term Growth and Dividends Portfolio
I am taking advantage of the recent weakness to add shares of Potash Corporation to my Long-term Growth and Dividends Portfolio. The company's position as the market leader should stabilize returns near-term and supply disruptions could provide a significant long-term upside.
The addition follows Peabody Energy (BTU) on strong long-term coal demand and Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) on a strong business model and coming diversification into commercial loans. I will probably add a position each week for a total of ten holdings and then update monthly.
Ever since Thomas Malthus made his 1798 forecast that the world would run out of food, we have nervously watched the population grow and demand more calories. While his prediction never came true, demand for food will increase quickly on 9 billion hungry mouths by 2040. With a finite amount of plantable acreage, this is going to require higher yields and more fertilizer. Potash Corporation is a best of breed company in an industry with significant barriers to entry and strong long-term demand. Take advantage of recent fear in the market to add this to your long-term portfolio.
As always, I look forward to your comments and suggestions for the portfolio.
Disclosure: I am long NLY, POT, BTU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


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Puff the wonderful
(Page 4 of 55: Viewing Diary Entry 31 to 40)
[First 10 Diary Entries] Page Links: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 [Last 10 Diary Entries]
10/04/13 My life flashed before my eyesOctober 4th 2013 4:13 pm
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I am home trying to forget what happened to me today at the vet's office. When momma and daddy came to get Coco and the rest of the pack out of jail, a very nasty dog attacked me.
09/27/13 I'll never confessSeptember 27th 2013 8:01 pm
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Momma had to wash everything on the big bed today because there was a "wet" spot that soaked through the quilt, electric blanket and down to the fitted sheet. Why is she giving ME funny looks? You know it could have been the "Princess". All I'm going to say is that's what you get for locking us up in the bedroom lately.
09/23/13 The excavator is goneSeptember 23rd 2013 7:35 pm
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Daddy called the rental place where he rented the mini excavator early this morning and told them that he was unable to return the equipment as promised because it was stuck and would not move. They said it sounded like the motor had burned out and they would send someone to come get it.
09/23/13 The waiting gameSeptember 23rd 2013 9:54 am
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Well the excavator remains stuck and broken in our back yard. It's not going to budge and that's that. Daddy called the rental company and described to them what was going on with the excavator and they said it sounded like a motor issue and that they would send someone out here to "walk" the excavator out. This piece of equipment is very heavy and where it is stuck at probably won't allow a tow truck in to move it. I foresee another day of barking, barking and more barking once the rental people arrive.
09/22/13 Excavator adventureSeptember 22nd 2013 8:46 pm
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Daddy rented the mini excavator to try to fix some of the water issues on our property. He operated it all day Saturday and today the "handyman" came over and operated it. First the "handyman" called daddy and tried to tell daddy that he would come over on Tuesday instead of today like he promised, but daddy told him that the excavator had to be back at the rental place tomorrow morning so Tuesday was out of the question. So the "handyman" said he would be here shortly but didn't show up until 11:30AM.
09/21/13 I'm helping Coco with her Dogster campainSeptember 21st 2013 8:23 am
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If the Dogster gift shop had FOREVER wings, halos, hearts with paw prints in them, St. Francis medals, rainbows and lighted candles, I'd send some Logan and Bay-Ling. It would do my heart some good honoring their memory with a wonderful pressie that didn't evaporate after one months time.
09/17/13 My new stuffiesSeptember 17th 2013 7:26 pm
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Some of my pals have been wondering if Coco has been getting jealous because I have had my diary featured more times than hers and the answer is YES! Isn't that great?
09/17/13 Again?September 17th 2013 4:02 am
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Oh boy, my diary has once again been chosen as one of the featured diaries of the day and NOT Coco's - BOL, BOL. The little Princess is going to throw a hissy fit when she finds out but that's okay because sometimes she needs to be knocked off her pedestal.
09/15/13 Rain, rain and more rainSeptember 15th 2013 9:35 am
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We have been having intermittent torrential rains here in Cibola County of New Mexico, in fact, part of our area got flooded yesterday and some residents on one of the Native American reservation are cut off from entering and leaving their property. We have water washing down from other properties onto ours. Being rural, without having developed roads and properties means that the waters are loaded with dirt, sticks and other debris. Right now it is sunny with some scattered storm clouds in the distance but probably this afternoon the rains will again come.
09/13/13 It's been an interesting day hereSeptember 13th 2013 7:27 pm
[ View A Comments (8) ]
It was a nice sunny day with clouds in the sky here in New Mexico. The humans have taken to being lazy and both were still in their jammies right before noon.
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Please register at Biopeoples desk, if you have not managed to register due to an error at inSPIres website OR if you have not received a registration confirmation.
The National Ingredient Center, Inspire and Biopeople co-organize November's main health promoting event in Copenhagen - the Food-in-2 Health Agora, which is supported by DTU and the University of Copenhagen, AGORA partners and sponsors
Meet 100 exhibititors and +500 participants in this years Agora at University of Copenhagen!
We welcome you for a one-day dating and dialogue between companies, knowledge institutions, students and export players, pharma, biotech and food ingredients. Companies from food-ingredient clusters in Germany and Finland will present as well.
The aim of this AGORA is to link research and companies through exhibitions of own projects within pharma, biotech and food ingredients. Investore/venture capital will be present and form a panel for the pitch session.
The AGORA is the meeting place for more than 500 exhibitors and participants who want updated knowledge and a closer collaboration with relevant players within the biotech and food ingredients area.
Time and location:
11 November 2015, between 9 a.m.- and 4. p.m. at the University of Copenhagen, Marmorhallen, Thorvaldsensvej 40, 1871 Frederiksbergs C.
Download invitation to Agora (visitors) (pdf)
Link for registration (free of charge) (ext URL)
Download Workshop programme (pdf)
Download Voucher Announcement BSR Innovation Express (pdf)
Practical information for exhibitors - in Danish (pdf)
Workshops at the AGORA:
9:00-10:30 Workshop on the Human Microbiome, Pre- and Probiotics. The human microbiome contains an enormous capacity for converting nutrients and dietary substrates, and this functional capacity can be affected by the administration of probiotic strains and prebiotics can enhance the proliferation of beneficial microbes to maximize sustainable changes in the human microbiome.
14:15-15:45 Workshop on Bioactive Compounds with Health Benefits – from ideas to products. Extracts of bioactives have demonstrated effects as antioxidant, antiinflammatory, and antimicrobial effects– just to mention some! At this workshop, you can hear about bioactives in seaweed, how to process and characterize bioactives in berries, and how you can build up a business with an example from Punalpin: from idea to product.
Participation is free of charge, but registration is mandatory at inSPIRe's website.
The National Ingredient Center/ InSpire Food
Quote from the 1st Biotech Agora in 2014:
"This Biotech AGORA was an excellent idea, event and opportunity to network. The number and selection of participants was good and led to some useful connections"
University of Copenhagen
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Mail email@example.com
Web www.biopeople.dk


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New Harmony Real Estate
New Harmony is located in Indiana. New Harmony, Indiana has a population of 797. New Harmony is less family-centric than the surrounding county with 19.9% of the households containing married families with children. The county average for households married with children is 31.82%.
The median household income in New Harmony, Indiana is $44,784. The median household income for the surrounding county is $57,777 compared to the national median of $53,046. The median age of people living in New Harmony is 55.3 years.
New Harmony Weather
The average high temperature in July is 89 degrees, with an average low temperature in January of 23.8 degrees. The average rainfall is approximately 42.9 inches per year, with 11.3 inches of snow per year. No weather information available.
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WSU men manhandle Mustangs in 75-60 win
MARSHALL – After drilling a 3-pointer from the top of the key, 6-foot-9 All-American center Clayton Vette let out a primal scream as he backed his way down the court, his 25th-ranked Winona State Warriors up on Southwest Minnesota State 65-54.
The yell echoed through SMSU's R/A Facility as Saturday's rowdy "Hawaiian Night" crowd, over 3,000 strong, took a collective punch to the gut and fell dead silent. There were still five minutes, 11 seconds left on the clock, but the Warriors were in firm control. The game was effectively over, and everyone could sense it.
Beaten up, exhausted and outplayed, the Mustangs saw their season-high three-game winning streak come to an end as Winona State ripped away a 75-60 victory in a contest in which the Warriors never trailed for a single second.
After addressing his team in the locker room, SMSU head coach Brad Bigler emerged and gave high praise to the Warriors after they held his Mustangs, the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference's top shooting team at 49 percent, to a season-low 33.9 percent on Saturday.
"I thought tonight Winona … I thought they big-boyed us," Bigler said. "I thought they were bigger, stronger, faster, and just outplayed us in every aspect of the game.
"I will easily go on record and say that was by far the best team performance that's went up against us in the last two years, Division I included. That was the best performance that we've faced, and I give them a lot of credit. They were ready to go, they were organized, they took us out of a lot of things and we have a long ways to go."
Vette had a big hand in helping WSU (18-3 overall, 12-2 NSIC) earn that sterling review, along with their 12th straight victory and their 18th consecutive regular season win over SMSU (11-10, 8-6). He scored a game-high 26 points on 7-for-12 shooting, including 2-for-2 from 3-point range, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds and had two of the Warriors' seven blocked shots. His size, strength and length, along with that of his teammates, punished the Mustangs on offense and stonewalled SMSU at the rim on defense throughout the game.
Winona State set the tone from the start and grabbed a 6-0 lead after their first three possessions after a jumper by 6-7 guard Kellen Taylor. SMSU tied the game at 12 after a layup by center Nick Smith, and later tied it again at 17 after a pair of free throws by forward Lavione West midway through the half, but that was the final time the Mustangs would pull even with the Warriors.
Vette scored 13 points in the first half to lead his team to a 37-30 advantage at the break. WSU held a 12-0 edge on fast break points in the half an 11-0 edge in points off turnovers.
In the second half, Winona State wasn't able to get out and run as much, but was no less efficient on offense as it worked through its half-court sets. With scoring threats all over the court, the Warriors managed to maintain a lead between 7-11 points through much of the half.
SMSU mounted a 9-0 run midway through the half, getting layups from guards Vinard Birch and Jordan Miller, and later a 3-pointer by Miller with 10:33 left in the game to cut the WSU to 52-50. The Warriors responded with an 8-0 run of their own to push the lead back to double figures and got big baskets from Vette and guard Grant Johnson down the stretch, never allowing the Mustangs to get any closer than eight points the rest of the way.
Johnson, a 6-5 senior guard, wasn't eligible to play in games or travel with the team until Jan. 12, and didn't face the Mustangs when Winona State earned a 91-83 overtime win over SMSU on Jan. 4. He was sitting out due to a transfer violation that nullified 13 of WSU's NSIC games last season. Saturday, in just his fifth game of the year, he knocked down seven of 12 shot attempts on his way to 14 points, combining with Vette to squash the Mustangs' hope for a comeback as the second half ticked away.
"As you saw tonight, he has the ability to create his own shot," Bigler said of Johnson. "He made a couple of big shots there, he's a talented player, but honestly, it was their big lineup that really caused us problems. They were just bigger, stronger, and honestly, they were tougher tonight."
WSU's Caleb Palkert, a 6-9 senior forward, scored just two points Saturday, but had three blocks and played a part in the Warriors steadfast defensive effort in the paint. He and the other WSU big men stifled Smith, SMSU's top low-post scoring threat, all game and held him to just six points on 2-for-7 shooting. The Warriors also prevented the SMSU perimeter players from getting good looks going to the rim.
SMSU thrives when its guards get action to the rim and either finish at the basket or dish to teammates for wide-open looks. That's been the recipe that has helped the Mustangs finish with two games in which they've shot over 60 percent from the field this season. But it wasn't working on Saturday.
"I think we probably could have been a little more unselfish," Bigler said. "I thought we were driving into traffic and really trying to force things. Making that extra pass, I didn't think we were very good at that tonight."
Miller led SMSU with 17 points and eight rebounds. Birch added 12 points, while West scored 11 points off the bench.
Sitting alone in eighth place in the NSIC standings, the Mustangs will look to make up some ground on the top teams next weekend as they take to the road to play Bemidji State (7-7, 9-9) Friday and Minnesota-Crookston (0-14, 3-15) Saturday.


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Letters: On the horns of a mental health dilemma
VILLA PARK, John Terando: The article "'Laura's Law' in Thomas scenario" [Local, April 20], about Kelly Thomas, points out an interesting political dilemma. Laura's Law would
|MCT illustration
allow compulsory treatment for those who are mentally ill and meet a certain set of criteria. "Civil libertarians are vehemently opposed" to this, "saying the decision to enter or refuse treatment should always rest with the individual, not the state."
Then why do the same civil libertarians support the all-too-often-used defense of "not guilty by reason of mental defect"? If you cannot mandate by law mental treatment of offenders who have shown violent tendencies but refuse help, why, then, should those same individuals be allowed to use their mental issues to exempt them from the penalties created by their mental state after the fact?
Isn't the normal result of a mental-defect conviction mandatory mental health treatment? The only person who benefits from this is the perpetrator of the violent crime while the victim and his or her family are left to suffer a loss that may have been preventable. You should not be able to have it both ways.
Ukrainian Jews suffer
NEWPORT BEACH, R. Claire Friend: On the Register's April 18 front page are articles about Pastor Rick Warren's new Saddleback Church in Hollywood ["Saddleback sets L.A. stage"], "Local prayers" for the South Korean "ferry victims," a lag in Latino Covered California enrollment and a nest of Osprey chicks atop a 30-foot telephone pole.
However, there was no mention anywhere in the paper, much less on the front page, of the forced registration of Jews in Donetsk, Ukraine, nor of the threat of deportation, imprisonment or appropriation of their property for their failure to comply with the state edict.
An oversight? It is hard to imagine the reason for the omission of such a horrific event.
Shame on you.
Faith when tragedy strikes
PLACENTIA, Dottie Cummings : What a pleasure to read Ron Keller's letter, "Christianity has profoundly contributed to humanity's good" [Opinion, April 19]. There is so much anti-Christian stuff out there these days, especially on TV, that it was nice to see such a positive letter. Christians respond when a tragedy strikes, like Franklin Graham's ministry Samaritan's Purse, which has gone to many countries to help flood, hurricane and earthquake victims.
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