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Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE:POT)
Q3 2009 Earnings Call
October 22, 2009; 01:00pm ET
Bill Doyle - President & CEO
Wayne Brownley - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Jim Deeds - Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Joe Podwika - Senior Vice President & General Counsel
Garth Moore - President of PCS Potash
Tom Reagan - President of PCS Potash
Tom Reagan - President of PCS Nitrogen and Phosphate
David Delaney - President of PCS sales
Denita Stann - Senior Director Investor Relations
Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley
Steve Byrne of Banc - America Merrill Lynch
Jacob Bout - CIBC
Fai Lee - RBC Capital Markets
Don Carson - UBS
Pj Juvekar - Citigroup
Jeff Zekauskas - JP Morgan
Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs
Edlain Rodriguez - Broadpoint Securities
Paul D'Amico - TD Newcrest
Michael Piken - Cleveland Research
Elaine Yip - Credit Suisse
Horst Hueniken - Thomas Weisel Partners
Mark Connelly - Sterne, Agee
Hari Sambasivam - National Bank Financial
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Potash Corp third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all call-in participants are in a listen-only-mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
I will like to turn the conference to Denita Stann, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Denita Stann
Thanks Brock. Good afternoon, thank you for joining us and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. In the room with us today, we have Bill Doyle, our President and CEO; Wayne Brownley, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jim Deeds, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Joe Podwika Senior Vice President and General Counsel; Garth Moore President of PCS Potash; Tom Reagan, President of PCS Potash, Tom Reagan, President of PCS Nitrogen and Phosphate; and David Delaney, President of PCS sales. I would like to welcome the media who are listening in, and remind people that we are live on our website.
I would also like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are given as of the date of this call and involve risks and uncertainties. A number of factors and assumptions were applied in the formulation of such statements and actual results could differ materially.
For additional information with respect to forward-looking statements, factors and assumptions, we direct you to our news release and our most recent Form 10-K, also today's news release which is posted on our website includes the reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. I will now turn this over to Bill Doyle for some comments and then we will go to questions.
William J. Doyle
All right Denita. Thank you and good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us for Potash Corp's third quarter conference call. Although the unprecedented challenges of 2009 continued this quarter, we see encouraging signs of our return to a more normal environment and we appreciate this opportunity to share our views with you.
The conditions we faced in the third quarter can be traced back to the onset of the global economic crisis. Initial collapse in commodity markets had a negative impact on both crop and nutrient prices. This severity disrupted normal market activities and caused fertilizer dealers and farmers to become very cautious with their capital. The agricultural industry has not yet broken free of this uncertainty. Farmers in the Northern hemisphere relied heavily on nutrients stored in the soil to feed this year's crops, while south of the equator they appeared to be under applying in their current planning season.
Fertilizer dealers around the world emptied their warehouses and avoided the inventory risk that led to previous write downs and losses largely associated with nitrogen and phosphate. As a result, our sales volumes for all three nutrients most notably in potash were significantly lower on a quarter-over quarter basis.
Prices for our three nutrients were also lower compared to last year's third quarter, not to a much greater degree in phosphate and nitrogen. We reported third quarter earnings of $0.82 per share, which compared to $3.93 per share in the same quarter last year. Gross margin of $346.2 million was down from a record $1.7 billion quarter-over-quarter.
Potash delivered 73% of our gross margin this quarter, demonstrating once again that it can deliver stronger and more stable gross margin than our other nutrients. Earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization and cash flow prior to working capital changes were both considerably lower on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
In general, this quarter showed the gap between the more normal buying conditions in last year's third quarter and the extreme caution prevalent this year. Our company has seen choppy waters in the past and we know how to navigate through that. When the Soviet Union collapsed and potash producers from that region flooded offshore markets to raise higher currency, people wondered whether our industry would ever recover.
At Potash Corp, we did what was necessary to get through more than a decade of tough conditions and opportunistically invested in other global potash businesses along the way. While the current deferral of demand has none of the long term characteristics of the FSU collapse, our handling of that situation should provide assurance that we have faced tougher and far longer lasting challenges in the past and turned them to our advantage.
Admittedly this trough has cut deeper and lasted longer than we initially anticipated. The under application of fertilizer however is not ergonomically sustainable. We have always stated that Potash is a long term business and encouraged our stakeholders to take that view as well. We operate with strategy design to optimize volatility in turbulent times and maximize growth when demand is high. We match our potash production to meet market demand, something we have done for more than 20 years. And the benefit is evident in our potash gross margin in this quarter.
Our track record on producing to meet market conditions is clear. This quarter we cut production by nearly two thirds and saw sales volumes reduced to almost half the total the same quarter last year, but we maintained strong per ton gross margin.
Executing this strategy is not easy, but it is logical. Core bodies are finite resources and we won't de-value our resources by running fallout and the market doesn't want that. This protects the value of our potash assets both for the long term needs of our customers and for the owners of our company. We stand by this approach and if you look at the factors expected to drive potash demand it is easy to understand why we remain so positive about the future.
The first is to step back from the past year which we will state with confidence is an anomaly. And look at long-term trends in food production in the macro economics of global development. The past two decades the world's population has grown by 28% from 5.3 billion people to 6.8 billion. Much of that growth has and will continue to occur in Asia and Latin America, regions that have become economic forces.
Even with the challenges in the past year, the International Monetary Fund is projecting the economies of China and India will grow by 9% and 6.4% respectively in 2010. In those countries the first priority is to improve the quality of life now with luxury items but with better food.
For many people it is the first time they can afford a balanced diet, with protein from animal sources and more fruits and vegetables that puts pressure on the world's farmers to produce more food essentially from a fixed base of agricultural land. To achieve this they need to consistently improve their agricultural factors as including their fertilization programs. Over the past few decades the word made significant strides in this area especially in potash use.
The impact was evident in steadily improving crop yields with farmers producing record harvest in the majority of years over the past decade. Those big production numbers, however hide in underlying the entity. Record crops draw more nutrients out of the soil and if you take more out you need to put more back just to maintain productivity.
This combined with continuing growth in global food demand make it clear that more fertilizer will be needed. In the past 10 years global grain consumption increased by roughly 320 million tons equivalent to the size of the entire US corn crop. In the next decade we are expecting that the world demand is going to grow by further 350 million more tons of grain.
The ability to increase food production by increasing the amount of land anywhere in the world is extremely limited. To meet this growing food demand it will be imperative to replenish nutrients in the soil and maximize yields. Farmers know this and they will start feeding their soil again. The question is not if it will happen, but when the rebound will begin. Everyone would like to know the date or the event that will signal the return to more normal market conditions.
We believe that India's potash settlement in July would be the catalyst, establishing a benchmark price and easing the uncertainty of fertilizer buyers that did not happen. Many fertilizer dealers and farmers are currently weary of fertilizer pricing and with the precipitous drop at phosphate and nitrogen prices late last year their cautious approach is understandable. So, without a compelling reason to immediately rebuild their own stock piles many continue to wait.
Most Northern Hemisphere farmers are between planting seasons and the late US harvest is expected to cut into their fall applications. Buyers see higher produces inventories and have a perception that supply will be readily available when the spring rush begins.
A few things are likely to lift farmers and fertilizer dealers out of their malaise. The first is that support of crop prices must be maintained to encourage farmers to get back to applying enough fertilizer and maximizing yields. There's less than perfect growing conditions in some parts of the world in recent months, crop prices have returned to healthy levels.
Second, a spring season will soon be a pause. The process of moving fertilizer into position for the Northern Hemisphere spring planning season will have to start early in 2010. The logistics of moving significant volumes across continents and oceans takes time. There are limited number of trains and ships to wait until March to begin refilling the supply chain would create an immense logistical challenge.
The third factor is time. Many buyers have been watching for contract settlement. As some of you, China's deals bell weather for potash prices in the past. A contract would trigger renewed demand elsewhere, but in China the more pressing issue is food production. There is evidence that China's crop yields are beginning to suffer and its government does not want to increase its reliance on foreign food producers.
Over recent months China's domestic prices for grains, fruits and vegetables have continued to rice. Last week the Chinese government set higher minimum prices for wheat and announced plans do the same for rice. It recognizes the need to encourage production, and it is taking steps to motivate farmers to plant more and maximize yields.
Fertilizers especially potash are part of that equation. Agronomic science firmly states that farmers have to replenish nutrients in the soil because food production is too important to put at risk. At potash Corp, we've always been a patient company and we are preparing for demand growth knowing it inevitably returns. Over the past five years, the potash industry completed its transformation from one defined by excess capacity to one that is likely to operate add or nearest productive capacity for years to come. That is not lost on potash buyers who are an allocation for the better part of two years.
At potash Corp, we're continuing to work on ground field capacity expansions in Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. These projects allow us to build capacity in more quickly and cost effectively than anyone can bring on a green field mine. We expect to raise our annual operating capacity from about 12 million tons in 2010 to a net of 18 million tons when these projects are fully ramped up by the middle of the next decade.
We do know that factors driving potash demand are very powerful. Growth never follows a straight upward line, but the need for more potash in the future is undeniable. Others have taken notice of this as well, which is why there is lot of noise about potential new players or green field projects in the industry. It seems the speculation change is almost daily on who will be starting a new project tomorrow.
We understand why this business is attractive, but we also know the hurdles that continue to keep speculators from putting stubbles in the ground. We estimate that a new 2 million ton green field mine in Saskatchewan would cost over $4 billion when you factor any infrastructure cost outside the plant gate.
More importantly, it would take at least seven years to bring a new mine to production. That is the large and long term commitment. If someone is looking for a fast return, this is not their industry. With PotashCorp, our investment is already in place. If demand is slow, we've proven strategies to whether the storm and still capture value for our assets.
When demand growth returns to its normal trend line, our company with our new capacity is going to be in a very strong position. As others have said before the future belongs to those who prepare for it today. We look ahead to 2010 and beyond knowing we will once again have the opportunity to show the full potential of our operations.
I would like to thank you for your interest in PotashCorp and I'm joined today by other members of our executive management team and we'd be pleased to answer your questions.
Question-And-Answer Session
(Operator Instructions) You first question comes from Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley
Wondering if you could make some comments about the U.S. corn curve has moved up about $0.60 in the last six weeks alone and I'm just wondering if there's been any sawing from a demand perspective or anything you are hearing in the channel as a function of those higher corn prices?
Bill Doyle
Vincent, thank you and I will turn that question over to David for an answer.
David Delaney
Vincent, we're in the midst of the slowest harvest since 1985, as of October 18, 17% of the crop have been harvested versus the five year average of 46%. The crop is only 83% mature and right now certain consultants believe with the freeze that we had earlier this month that are around 215 million bushels have been lost, maybe up to a billion bushels have been affected. So we'll wait to see how that turns out.
In terms of the corn price, December corn was 304 in early September, $4 yesterday. So the major contribution impacted the farmer as he harvested his crop here this fall. We have seen some interest from the fall application standpoint. We're having reports from across the board that farmers are coming back and using normal fertility for their fall applications. At random we've enough to a late start. We're going to have a narrow window, so on year-on-year comparison, it's going to felt us down, but we're seeing a much better attitude in the field today.
Bill Doyle
Vincent, what I would say is, we never really expected much out of this fall just because of what David said. We get off to such a late planting start. We knew it's going to be a late harvest and then you had this, while it was an ideal growing season it hasn't been a great fall for drying down the crop. It's a highly moisture content crop, which is going to take some cost to either led it dry naturally, because you're losing a little bit of the yield or you're going to spend it on gas to drive down that crop, so both of those things have been taken into account.
I just think the window is going to be so short by the time you get it out in course of the psychological cutoff date is U.S. Thanksgiving. We're just not going to have much of the fall, which is going to put even more pressure on the spring than we're accustomed to because we just won't have the usual split between fall and spring application, which combined with some of the other factors as I talked about with our international business looking brighter. We're just going to see more pressure beginning in early 2010.
Your next question comes from Steve Byrne - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch
Steve Byrne - Banc of America/Merrill Lynch
A couple of accounting questions on the Potash business, with respect to the net realized prices. How much did the least railcars and warehousing fixed cost, which were absorbed by fewer tonnes impact those net realized prices in both the domestic and export markets and then on the cost side your costs have varied all over the place as the function of operating rates, when you ramp backup to the 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes a quarter operating rates, do you expect your unit cash cost to fallback down into that $70 to $80 a tonne range or our labor rates higher now, which would affect that?
Bill Doyle
Steve, I want to ask Garth Moore to comment on your operating cost question first and then we'll move onto the second question.
Garth Moore
Steve, we know that the operating costs will fallback down to the normal values once we get backup into our normal operating rates. What's happening now as you know with the low production and the unit cost are just kind of bouncing around on us and, but once we get to the continued production again they'll be back down to normal rates and possibly a little bit lower than they been, because of higher capabilities.
Bill Doyle
David, will you comment on the least cost impacting us?
David Delaney
Steve from the Canpotex standpoint the railcar and terminal costs are $20 above last year and also we have freight management contracts that are at a higher level than spot market that are above market by around $60 million year-to-date. So that will worsen as the year goes on, but in terms of 2010 those freight management contracts are in much better shape. Domestically, I don't have the number today, but I'm assuming it's around $10 from a T&T standpoint from additional cost from railcars and terminals.
Bill Doyle
Steve, what I say, you look at operating cost, lease cost, transportation and distribution cost, all of that combined, which is much higher than it would be normally and yet we still are able to maintain Potash as a tremendous gross margin business during the worst possible conditions you could imagine. So I think that really is just as a lot about the Potash business.
Your next question comes from Jacob Bout - CIBC.
Jacob Bout - CIBC
Just on your global potash demand estimated 15 million tonnes and you've taken that down now, I think back in May you were kind of 55 to 60 and then you dropped down. So I think 55, in September now down to 50. I'm just wondering, what are some of the moving parts that you're looking at here? What's embedded as far as Chinese, U.S., Brazil demand and then estimate and what was the moving part from revision downward?
Bill Doyle
I think, Jacob that you look at what's transpired here over those months from May till now. I talked about the Indian settlement in July and we though that was going to be a catalyst and clearly, we missed it and I would tell you that I personally done a horrible job of forecasting this year.
We're seeing situation like never before, there's some interesting numbers out of the IFA. If you look at the first half of 2009, exports of Potash globally, January through June of 2009 are down 72%. That is by far in a way to pervious all time record for any six month period was down 27%, so down 72%.
The second half of 2008, last year's second half was down 21%. So putting these phenomenon numbers back-to-back in terms of decline and exports and so I would say some of our thinking has been moderated by just those numbers and when you look at where we think we're going to end up this year in terms of total shipments, we think that number is going to be around 30 million tonnes and that's down from 52 million tonnes last year and 56 million tonnes in 2007.
So we think the best number that we have right now is 50 and the way we get there is we think that the pressure is going to be on for various markets to move here in early 2010. If it's later in 2010 if it comes in March, that number will below 50. It could be above 50 as well as we recover because the agronomic demand is certainly there and as we see these grain prices kick up around the world.
I'm not just taking about our focus in North America and corn, wheat, and soybeans, but we're seeing improvements in palm oil, we're seeing a phenomenal situation in sugar. These are big Potash consuming crops and so as we see that the pressure on agricultural prices, these agricultural commodities raise you will see the incentive for farmers to get back at it.
So there's a lot of different calls, we think 50 is the right number at the moment and we think this is a multiple year recovery by the way, it wont be covered off in 2010. You're going to see 2010, '11, '12 because it just takes time to get back to trend line to start refilling that soil base that been so severely depleted.
Your next question comes from Fai Lee - RBC Capital Markets.
Fai Lee - RBC Capital Markets
Bill, I'm just wondering if you would care to comment on perhaps your expectation is regarding the Chinese potash contract, particularly with respect to timing and the risk of a price decline.
Bill Doyle
This is one of the areas that really, when you talk about forecasting, I fell on my face on this one. I will tell you that we get our information from our partner, Sinofert and I told our partner that he's helped me to look like jerk the whole year long and he said a very difficult time forecasting as well and I would tell you around the world.
In Brazil, we've got people that are long time in this business that have tremendous expertise, who all say to me, "I've never seen anything like this before." It's true. So the Chinese contract, we're going to wait for it to finish. I do know this, when you get to $2 million tonnes of inventory they'll buy and we think right now that will be before the end of the year and we certainly know that after two years of utilizing all the nutrients in the soil.
I'll you what, I asked Stephen Dowdle, who is head of our Fertilizer Sales on a global basis reports to David. Stephen for your guidance is probably one of the real experts in China. Stephen has lived in China, he speaks fluent Mandarin, he is a Ph.D. agronomist, he headed up the Potash and Phosphate Institute to market development program in China in the '80s and worked for Canpotex for about 10 years and all that time focused on China.
Steve, why don't you just talk a little bit about China from an agronomic point of view and your thoughts?
Stephen Dowdle
Domesticated agriculture in China traced us back 7700 years and due to a shortage in arable land, Chinese agriculture is very intensive. Farmers grow two and even three crops per year over wide areas. Due to this long intensive history, the Chinese soils, is compared to Northern Hemisphere new world soils, are lower in organic matter content and caution exchange capacity. Both properties influence the inherent ability of the soil to supply actions such as potassium to growing crops and if the soil cannot supply potassium, Potash must be added as fertilizer.
There's modern agriculture spread in China starting with the green revolution technologies in the 60s. Widespread fertilizer applications became necessary as yield potential increased with the introduction of modern high yield varieties and China started with nitrogen fertilizer in the 60s, because they could build nitrogen plants and followed the phosphates in the 70s and Potash in the 80s and soil scientists learned from experience that lack of phosphate and potash was limiting yields.
The scientists in China today are still aware and promoting more potash consumption as there is not a proper balance of fertilizer use in China. China uses two little potash relative to the nitrogen and phosphate consumption. In China yields of many crops such as corn and soybeans are far below comparable yields in the U.S. for example, and China will need to continue to increase potash consumption to close this yield gap.
Bill Doyle
I think Steven, as a result we know they need it, they know they need it and Chinese farmer has just been like any other farmer around the world. They were scared to death to with this crisis coming. I do find it interesting that GDP growth in China this last quarter 8.9%, it looks like the recovery is going to be led by China and we know that also going to put more pressure on food production. So our partners says, they're going to need more next year, we know they're going to be more next year, we just think it's a matter of time here, but it wont be long now, fine.
Your next question comes from Don Carson - UBS.
Don Carson - UBS
Question Bill, you talked a bit before about shipments and your outlook there maybe Dave Delaney, can address the whole issue of consumption, because it would appear pure that two years ago shipments were well above end market consumption, I think you've talked about consumption being down 30%, 35% for potash in the 2009 crop year obviously, shipments were down more or so. How do you see consumption? What's your final number for the last year, where you see it going this year both in the U.S. and globally? How do you see shipments rebounding, we're hearing that the pipeline inventories are pretty low?
Dave Delaney
In terms of fertilizer consumption in North America, or I guess in the United States, we're calling nitrogen in '08, '09 Fert Year, the one we just finished at 11.6 versus 12.8. Now, in this current Fert Year '09, 2010 we're seeing this going to rebound about 5% to 10% to 12.5%. Phosphate was down last year to 3.3%, we're seeing that's going to rebound this year 20% to 25% to $4 million nutrient tones.
Potash hit a low of $3 million tones in '08 and '09 we've said, that will rebound 25% to 30% up to 3.8 million tons. Globally, shipments are down as Bill indicated around 30 million tons. We know the pipeline has emptied around the world. I would say, potash consumption is probably around 35 million maybe as much as 38 million tons of KCL.
We do think inventories in every country are extremely low, if you look at Brazil for example, they began the this year with 1.8 million tons and we think this year it will be less than 500,000 or may be 300,000 to 400,000, so extremely lower going into the first quarter. Malaysia and Indonesia, off that high stocks, they're up to-date, so really if you go around the world, it's the same scenario.
Your next question comes from PJ Juvekar - Citi
PJ Juvekar - Citi
Bill, you mentioned in the press release that, you do some labor contracts; you may build some potash inventory in the fourth quarter. I was just wondering, if you can elaborate on that?
Bill Doyle
We do have different labor agreements at individual mines, I'm going to let Garth just speak to that a little bit.
Garth Moore
Our labor agreements work as for various lengths over the inventory control shutdown, we required to get various notice periods to under the different contracts and it varies anywhere from two weeks notice, for two weeks shutdown to eight weeks notice for indefinite shutdown or any, up to any length of shut down. So they vary according to the contracts and as we evaluate our needs and our market demands for the various products and our product mixes, we make our plans accordingly and give the notice that's required.
Sometimes that's why we've been up and down with our production so much as here, because we were waiting for the market to open up and it's been slow coming. So we've had to take some shorter shutdowns as we go along and then it will continue through the fourth quarter and somewhat into the first quarter as well as we work the inventories down at our plant sites.
Bill Doyle
The people part of this equation, we talk about being a logical choice, this potash strategy that we follow, but the people part of the equation is the most difficult, because we know we're impacting families, and there's just a lot of folks involved that are really terrific employees of this company. So there is a lot of sacrifice in that. Potash Corporation has sacrificed tremendously here during this period of time and I know that some of you may not appreciate the human part but it's real.
Your next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas - JP Morgan.
Jeff Zekauskas - JP Morgan
Do you expect there to be very little change in your global average potash prices until the Chinese contract is settled?
Bill Doyle
Alright, we'll let David try that one, Jeff.
David Delaney
We reduced our price July 1, for example FOB St. Louis to 525 and the market has been under pressure of India's settlement coming in July. That price has trended down to about 460 a short tonne. So, we're holding stable layer today, people are buying. We're seeing more and more activities. So I think our fourth quarter number will be similar to the third quarter may be down a little bit, just depends on our T&D cost, where we're shipping to product mix that type of thing.
Your next question comes from Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs.
Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs
Bill, just wonder if you could help me maybe focus on something a little less short term on and that is the concept of mass balance around our crop production and then the need to replace nutrients. I guess when I was looking at the U.S. industry over the last 20 years I think production yields got up something like 40%, yet potash applications excluding rough this year's anomaly aren't any higher maybe even a touch lower, so what is the science behind that would allows increased production, but not increased application overtime?
Bill Doyle
If you look at what's happened since - really almost going back to 1985 in the U.S. The U.S., of course, keep in mind is the most developed market of them all in terms of agronomic practices, but just the efficiency of cropping systems are so much improved, this is one of the things that a certain people who have talk about the environmental degradation of potash, or nitrogen, or phosphate, or GMCs on this whole scare tactic about food productions around the world.
They don't realize how efficient we have become and when you talk about site-specific application of fertilizers, we're banning fertilizer right into the root zone. The addition of no-till low-till agriculture what that has done the crop population, spacing, the genetic improvements of having corn use, the lease of corn plants pointed to sky and allow sunlight to come in at the root systems. Just so many things that have occurred that have allowed us to become a super efficient industry and when I look at other industries they should model themselves after agriculture, because we have really shown the world how to be efficient.
Your next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez - Broadpoint Securities.
Edlain Rodriguez - Broadpoint Securities
A quick question on phosphate, can you tell us what you are seeing there? I mean, it seems like almost two or three weeks ago most it will suggesting that volume seem to be returned into near normal levels, but recently of announcements by you don't seem to indicate a return to near normal levels. Can you give us some color on the phosphate market?
Bill Doyle
I'll ask David to respond to that one.
David Delaney
The phosphate market has been pretty difficult this year too, really supported primarily by NDS importation of DAP and phosphoric acid. We've seen a lot of caution really around the world most countries buying hand to mouth Pakistan did come back in this year, but again in Brazil, Argentina they've been extremely cautious, their imports year-over-year are down.
So, the market I think hit a low of 270 metric tonne, Edlain, this summer, then went up to 320 and November, December look fairly slow right now. India is back in way from the market, and the market has declined to 295, and believe me, that hurts because ammonium prices are $355, up from the low of around $185 in July, so our input cost have increased while prices have gone down. So we need some demand to kick back in.
We do think there will be a bit of a recovery in 2010 for dry phosphate market probably increasing from a global trade standpoint by about two million ton. So, I think once we get through this fourth quarter, the first quarter should prove to be much better backed up by low inventories around the world and people realizing they got to get product in place.
Bill Doyle
I'd just follow on that Edlain and say that in phosphate business, we find one of the most frustrating businesses, because it should be so much better than it is, as Dave was talking about the supply/demand balance is really in good shape. Inventories are low and we had a very good demand and when you look at those numbers, 5.5 million to 6 million tonnes of DAP imported and growing demand there and yet they would also say you have raw material increases with sulfur and ammonia.
So the margin pressure is increasing and people don't talk about phosphate rock cost, but phosphate rock cost are also clearly going up around the world as we get farther and farther away from some of these chemical plants with rock mines, and just the transportation cost and lower quality ore and the higher impurities and so, all the beneficiation cost that you have there.
So, when you think about it, it just should be so much better, but clearly the underlying problem with phosphate is the lack of production discipline, there is just too much production.
Your next question comes from Paul D'Amico - TD Newcrest
Paul D'Amico - TD Newcrest
Just not to beat dead horse, but just on China you mentioned about the 2 million tonnes expected by 2009 year end, just wanted to gauge where you see inventories currently and whether or not you believe it's being assessed better now versus before if that's possible? Specifically, what I'm looking for is, the expected China import demand and consumption that you got in the 2010, 50 million tonne forecast?
Second question, you mentioned about the restock and supply chain logistical challenges and you expect that would be the problem if they look towards March 2010. To clarify, are you expecting normalized inventories on the wholesale level prior to March 2010 or thereabouts?
Bill Doyle
I'm going to let David speak to that question and I'll speak to China.
David Delaney
If you look at the beginning inventory July 1 in the North American system, outside of producer hands it was extremely low probably less than 500,000 tonnes. Third quarter sales, the industry sought I believe 850,000 tons, and if we consume this fall 2.5 to 3, that means we began January 1 empty, and even if the consumption is lower than the number of 2.5 to 3, if they are going to be extremely tight, if we're going to use $7 million tons in this fertilizer year, which is down from the '07, '08 peak, that means we have to move in place 4.5 million tonnes January really through April.
So that's lot of volume to get in place. So that's why I think the pressure is on really in North America starting at the beginning of the year, I mean right now people are just buying to put it on the ground. So, there will be a rush here I think in the first half of the year.
Bill Doyle
Paul on the China question, we think the inventories right now are between 2 and 3 million. As I said, when they get down 2 million that's when they buy, that's the magic number. When exactly that is, I said we believe it will before the end of the year, it might be in November. There has been public press on DPC being close on agreement with them, I don't know any more than that, but I do know the Chinese, we're almost through 2009 year. So to go through a whole year without having any Chinese business is that's good part of the storm that we've been going through.
In terms of where we see them in the 50 million equation we think that China is going to be between to 8 to 9 million next year out of the 15million.
Your next question comes from Michael Piken - Cleveland Research.
Michael Piken - Cleveland Research
Couple of quick questions, do you have any sense for kind of where we are globally and I guess specifically in terms of the Russian producers and some of the Middle Eastern producers in terms of where they are in terms of potash inventories? Obviously, you've done quite a bit work in terms of increasing your size. You have the capacity of 12 million., but what are you sort of thinking in terms of your share, let's say you are right on the 50 million, like what would be the PotashCorp share, given that presumably there is a lot of producer inventories in other parts of the world as well?
Bill Doyle
You just asked an impossible question, because I can't give an answer to that. You're asking me to absolutely predict the future and I can't do that. What I would say to you is that, producers around the world, one thing about Potash is you can't store it outside. With one exception, which would be the Dead Sea, we can store it outside because it doesn't rain there.
So, there is some inventory there that normally wouldn't be there, but the rest of it have to put it under a roof, because you don't you just it's soluble and it tends to do some other than its intended purpose. So, that does limit production and that's why you have had the shutdowns around the world and you start thinking about where we're going to end up this year.
Potash Corporation it will take the lion share of the global shutdowns, but there is substantial somewhere between 20 million and 25 million tonnes of production is going to be taken out this year in a market that is normal well last year it was 52 million, and we are saying 50 million for 2009. So that's a lot of production taken out and that's also is one of the reasons why we think that Potash recovers quicker than these other nutrients.
Your next question comes from Elaine Yipp - Credit Suisse.
Elaine Yip - Credit Suisse
In the U.S. the farmers are in good shape and current grain prices are certainly supportive of that, but what are you views on farmer economics in other regions such as Brazil. I mean you mentioned that Brazil and Argentina are little bit more cautious with the fertilizer purchases, what are the drivers of that?
David Delaney
In Brazil and Argentina, one thing we know their USDA forecast for both countries is to harvest 114 million tonnes of soybeans. Last year they harvested 89, so that's a big increase and the world is going to be watching how well they do and even with that big crop their carryover stock stay fairly low.
The economics, the return is still good even with the stronger Real in Brazil, but there has just been so much caution due to last year and the write-down of the nitrogen and phosphate inventory that I wonder if Brazil will truly get through 20 million to 21 million tonnes of NPK consumption based on lower Potash imports phosphate, nitrogen everything has been extremely slow so, for them to yield to harvest a big crop like they are predicting I think maybe a challenge, but in terms of return on the current prices it's very good, still very good.
Your next question comes from Horst Hueniken - Thomas Weisel Partners.
Horst Hueniken - Thomas Weisel Partners
In today's press release it's disclosed that in the phosphate business you incurred that negative gross margins for both solid and liquid fertilizers. Is there anything that you plan on doing in order to eliminate this drag on earnings or is the plan to continue operating as is in the expectation of a cyclical upturn?
Bill Doyle
I'm going to ask Tom Regan to, he is head of our phosphate and nitrogen business. I'm going to ask Tom just to comment generally how he sees things and add on here.
Tom Regan
I think that one of our strength is our diversity with our phosphate division. Now, we have a capability to supply the liquid fertilizer. So we also had capability in animal feed and we have capability in purified acid. So with respect to that we expect operations say in the fourth quarter to be better than what they were in the third and we will continue to operate at rate consistent with the market demand.
Now, we have taken some steps when we announced White Springs where we had a reduction force and that was really due to the philosophy of just operating the market demand and our projection based on what that market demand may look like for some period of time. So, from the class perspective we pay attention to what each site does and based on that take suitable actions.
Bill Doyle
What I said is, if you look at DAP the dry phosphate that's the problem area. We've been operating at very low level of capacity because we feel that we ought to match supply to demand. Problem is we're not big enough in dry phosphate to carry the day, because in Potash we certainly are and we really can make a difference there and you know it's part of, as I said earlier, part of the frustration that I have with phosphate, because really it should be a terrific business right now and it's not and we're hoping that change.
Your next question comes from Mark Connelly - Sterne Agee.
Mark Connelly - Sterne Agee
I'm listening to the comments about potential pressure in getting the product out in the spring and dealers buying as need and I'm wondering, is this maybe going to be the new reality going forward given how weak the distributors are after some of the big write-downs and what they got stuff holding and if that is a possibility would that suggest that we are going to see a restructuring of the distribution system for Potash. You think about in terms of how we are moving forward, our distributors are really going to be willing to carry between season.
Bill Doyle
I think that, as I said, we believe that this year is an anomaly and we think that you are going to see this market turn, you are going to see demand comeback in the system. When you go from 52 million tonnes down to 30 million tonnes you get all sorts of crazy things going on and people get real nervous and even some of you guys get nervous and you got to think about the long term fundamentals of our business and it's going to comeback and the confidence levels will comeback and you're going to see the demand for food increase and all the fundamental things.
That I think when I read a lot of reports and just like throw the baby out with the bath water and I don't understand that and it doesn't seem to be very powerful to me when the fundamentals are so clearly obvious and if you look at it from any perspective and I had criticized sometimes for not appreciating the fact that some of you folks are judged on a shorter time periods than I am and I do appreciate that you have got quarterly requirements that you are judged by, but sure heck don't want to run our company that way.
Your final question comes from Hari Sambasivam - National Bank Financial
Hari Sambasivam - National Bank Financial
I just wanted to ask a little bit about industrial demand for nitrogen and phosphate. I know the phosphate demand was down by about 20% this quarter, how would you sort of characterize the outlook for this and I'm just wondering is it just simply an economic up tick sort of a related issue or do you see other factors that affect industrial demand.
So that's the first question, and the second question relates to price leadership and in that question I wanted to ask was particularly for the Indian contract and now the Chinese contract, both these countries are negotiating with someone other than Can products and I'm just wondering under that scenario what kind of leverage does Can products have to sort of set prices going forward. I know you have the ability to sort of takedown volumes, but how do you influence price when your key costumers are negotiating with other players, presumably weaker players, in the Potash marketplace?
David Delaney
The industrial ammonia demand year-over-year is going to be down about 2 million tonnes and that's primarily related obviously to low operating rates of Acrylonitrile Caprolactam business, polyurethane business, DAP operating rates earlier in the year were down. We are seeing an up tick here in the second half. DAP operating rates around the world have increased.
We are seeing higher industrial output in Europe and Asia and also slow ramp up here in the United States. A lot of our industrial customers are indicating higher run rates here in the second half and improvement in 2010. Our purified acid business has been slow this year also we have seen a lot of competition from imported Chinese process that we have refused to compete with. So, part of it is the market in phosphate, part of it is cheaper Chinese phosphoric acid.
Bill Doyle
I terms of price leadership, in a weak market like we had this last what's almost 15 months now, you get a lot as I said earlier a lot of silly things happening, and so, it's hard to see price leadership, but there are subtle things that I would point out to, if you think it's just our operating philosophy and the way we have taken hit for a lot of our customer earlier in the year and they were taking write-downs for nitrogen and phosphate because there is disastrous happenings in those prices.
We had lot of customers come to us and asked us what our approach is going to be and they were literally, in certain cases begging us not to lower the Potash price because they are going to have to take big write-downs, and we sit back and so, we took the hit for and, I can tell you many, many people have told me that if we hadn't done that they would have gone under because they couldn't take the nitrogen and phosphate write-downs plus Potash.
So, there is a little bit of leadership there and again, our operating philosophy, we didn't operate the way we do, I can tell you that any price levels that are being discussed out there in the global market place by BPC or anybody else wouldn't be even close to where they are today. Canpotex is clearly the leader in the international community, the fact that they pick other players like BPC or someone else to negotiate with should tell you how strong Canpotex is as a marketing organization.
I just think they do a superb job, great management, very knowledgeable and is the most reliable supply source, if you take Agrium and Mosaic and Potash Corp combined in Canpotex and you see there are joint capability, the reliability that we have, the long term contracts that more people willing to tie up with us for years out into the future because they know we are all solid companies and strongly in support of Canpotex, there is just no doubt we are a leader.
In times of weakness and short term issues like we have had over the last year, you will see some things that might lead you to think otherwise, but the truth is something entirely different.
Denita Stann
Thank you everybody. If you have any further questions today please don't hesitate to give us a call at the office and have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the conference call for today, thank you for participating. Please disconnect your line.
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The stash needs an airing out. And a bit of an emptying. I organized it last night into themes - brewers, styles, that sort of thing - and see that I have some stuff to get through or I will be looking at the some of these beers in 2007. That is all fine and dandy for the big corked Belgians and their kin but a stash is not a vault and these brews have to keep moving.
To that end, we will get into a few of the groupings starting tonight and the first day of Achouffe week or semaine de la Brasserie d'Achouffe. Started in the village of Achouffe, Belgium in 1982 as a hobby, by 1988 it was able to support both owners and by 1992 was noteworthy enough to be mentioned in Pierre Rajoutte's book Belgian Ale. Now, the little red capped guy on every Achouffe label is one of the most recognizable brands in beer. Their beers rate highly at the Beer Advocate. Even the one above made under license by the recently amalgamated Brasseurs RJ from Montreal rates 100%.
I will work my way through these four as I hunt out more information on the brewery and build this post. Add any thoughts you have on this brewer's beer as you like.
- Houblon: The label says Dobbelen IPA Tripel...which gets me all confused from the get go. Double? Triple? IPA? Who cares. If I care about what is one the label and not inside I will start wondering what the think with the kilt and spats on the little red capped guy. The beer pours a lovely clouded gold under a rich off white head that is rockier than any other beer ever made. On the nose there's pear, a note of spruce and another note of nutmeg. At 9% it should be a bit of a beast, but it is smooth yet engrained with pale malt, summer fruit sweet but not cloying, spiced hoppiness with Amarillo Tomahawk and Saaz but not a bomb. Light cream yeast that boosts the final swirl with hits of lemon peel, white pepper and nutmeg. A dry sub-metallic finish with a bit of heat in the belly. $8.39 US for 75 cl. 1% of BAers were whacked with a stick of unhappiness.
- La Chouffe: Ardenne Strong Beer. Another wonderful reminder of what a great gig I have here. White lacing foam over more active - and clearer - golden ale. The head does not have the same rocky qualities and the nose is less complex with more booze apparent even if it is one notch lighter at 8%. In the mouth it is all about the malt - pear, apple and light sultana - framed by a comforting arc of twiggy spiced hop. The mouth feel is big and almost buttery which a whacking load of burlap as well. The water is soft making it very moreish despite the heft. Feed me this in a tube when I am in the nursing home. 1% of BAers are glued to the unhappiness stick.
- McChouffe: thick tan foam over dark mahogany ale, this one is a real delight. Again, the whole beer is framed by the use of soft shalky water that allows the dry chocolate notes to come out. Plum and fig as well. The "Mc" in the beer's name is a nod to the sub-style of Belgian Scots ales, big and round like the stronger ales of Scotland but with a bit of the Abbey as well in the yeast. In McChouffe this means a bit of aged hop burlap and spice under all the chocolate and cream. The result is one of the most moreish beer I have ever had - which makes it tragic that I only have a 33 cl bottle and even more so that this one cost me $4.39 US. An astonishingly well hidden 8.5%. Something came away when 2% of BAers pulled off that stick.
- Blonde d'Achouffe: from Les Brasseurs RJ, Montreal, Quebec. This is an Achouffe made under license by one of Quebec's microbreweries - an interesting concept. The beer might lack that certain something that makes Achouffe so chouffey but it is quite a handsome pale ale in its own right. Gold ale under a large but rapidly dissipating white head (this may be my glass). There is a decent roundness to the malt, framed by orange peel, grape juiciness, boozey heat at the back of the throat as well as spice like cinnamon and nutmeg. The yeast is creamy and fully clouds with the final swirl. The water fairly neutral - certainly not as moreish soft but I am not doing a side by side. Actually after the swirl there is more similarlity to the Belgian original. Maybe I would recommend turning the bottle around a few times first. Certainly worthy and next time I do a side by side as this is closer to the original that I might have first thought, though the grape juiciness in this one might be more pear in the original - that could speak to differing malt choices amongst other things. 100% BA love.

subset: commoncrawl


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Pandora for the iPhone is amazingly similar to the Pandora program available on the PC. Register and you can begin creating radio stations. Just pick a favorite artist and the app will provide you with songs by him or her along with others that have a similar sound. Pressing a button in the top right corner will give you a description of why each song has been chosen to fit your station. Like more than one type of music? Just make another station. You're free to switch between them.
Give songs a thumbs up or down as they play by touching the appropriate button with your finger. Downrate a song and you don't have to listen to the rest of it. It will disappear and be replaced with a new one. Like a song and you have the option to bookmark it along with the artist so you can easily find it to listen to again. Hit the button that says "buy from iTunes" and you're sent to the site and can immediately make a purchase or save it for later.
I really like this app. It's a good way to discover new music on the go and can provide the audiophile with hours of entertainment. The music sounds great over the built-in iPhone speaker and there's an option to turn on higher quality audio for when you plug your phone into external speakers. Over wifi networks, there is no stuttering or pausing during loading or playback and only a slight fidget with Cellular Edge and 3G networks.
You don't need any Mp3s when you have Pandora. It gives you the freedom rock out whenever the mood hits you.


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Before you begin learning to program the D-Wave One, you should install several free software packages. The example we're going to use (building a small piece of software that reads in a person's first name and attempts to classify it as either "male" or "female") requires some basic understanding of a field known as Natural Language Processing (NLP), which is just the application of computing methods to studying and manipulating human languages. If you don't know anything about teaching machines to learn, or NLP, don't worry! We will only need some very basic ideas and tools from these fields. I find the issues in NLP to be intensely fascinating — I hope you will too.
We're going to code in Python 2.7, so I'd recommend you use this version. Never coded in Python before? Don't worry. It is super easy and fun to learn and use. Four months ago I'd never written a single line of Python code, and now all the girls love me for my mad coding skillz, OK maybe not.
Alright so please install the following packages:
The material here assumes you are using Python 2.7. You can download Python from here.
Python comes with a simple programming environment called IDLE. While it is OK, what I'd highly recommend is the Jetbrains Integrated Development Environment (IDE) called Pycharm. You can evaluate Pycharm for free and if you decide you like it, you can buy a license for cheap. It is really worth it, it is a great product.
The Natural Language Tool Kit AKA NLTK
The code here uses NLTK version 2.0. You can get it from here. I also very highly recommend that you purchase the Natural Language Processing with Python book. This book taught me both Python and NLP. It is one of the best textbooks I have ever read and is very highly recommended, even if you just want to use it to learn Python!
This is a scientific computing library for Python.
That's it for now!


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Synopsis: California Bureau of Investigation consultant Patrick Jane (Simon baker) is still reeling from his encounter with serial killer Red John and the abduction and possible death of Kristina Frye (Leslie Hope). He is no longer working cases quite like he should and is pushing everyone away as he is afraid that Red John will go after the people in his life. His boss, Special Agent Teresa Lisbon (Robin Tunney) tricks him into working a case, and slowly things appear to be returning to normal. Jane meets Director Gale Bertram (Michael Gaston), and instantly the two seem at odds with one another. The rest of the team, Special Agents Wayne Rigsby (Owain Yeoman), Kimball Cho (Tim Kang) and Grace van Pelt (Amanda Righetti) all want to help Jane, though he has withheld the information that Red John recited some lines from the William Blake poem "Tyger Tyger".
Some of Jane's past comes to the fore when his brother-in-law, Daniel Ruskin (Kevin Rankin) turns up. Special Supervisory Agent Madeleine Hightower (Aunjanue Ellis) gets another look at how things are run slightly differently where Jane is involved. A case takes the team back to Visualize and its charismatic, charming and enigmatic leader Bret Stiles (Malcolm McDowell). Naturally tensions run high and he and Jane play terrible games with one another. Eventually Stiles gives Jane information about Red John and Kristina Frye. Stiles gives Jane the information as a sort of peace-treaty, and it leads to the recovery of Kristina. There is, however, an issue with her recovery. She is completely catatonic, and Jane cannot even coerce her out of it until he tries a séance, and she starts to talk. She has no information on Red John, and teases Jane for not believing in séances and yet here he is. She does not believe Jane when tells her that she only believes that she is dead. She has nothing useful to offer them.
Jane meets a man that is to be interviewed after his wife's killer is released from prison on wrongful DNA evidence and magically turns up dead shortly after. The man killed the murderer of his wife for personal vengeance, and Jane learns a few things from him. Eventually he is given a handgun as a gift from the man to focus his anger more accurately. More cases come up, and the team continues to successfully close them, all the while Jane is giving everyone hell in the most well-mannered type of way. Jane himself teaches some valuable lessons, though it causes Hightower to be angry with him, and Lisbon to truly question her sway over the man. However, he really does close cases, and they really do respect him, even if he drives them damn near crazy. He has a talent.
A death threat case brings Jane and Lisbon straight into contact with billionaire Walter Mashburn (Currie Graham), who is still trying his moves in vain on Lisbon. It soon becomes apparent that the deceased was not the intended victim, but Mashburn himself, and just like that he is involved in another one of their cases. Lisbon starts to fall for the charms of Mashburn, and Jane brings him into his little playing field to catch the killer, and naturally Mashburn obliges him with great pleasure. On the way to work one day, Jane is caught between a heavy shootout and is eventually taken captive. His captive-taker is a hostile and angry young girl, the daughter of one of the men Jane had sent away. The team works through all the possible suspects that could have a grudge against Jane, and are met with overwhelming stacks of suspects.
Jane comes into contact with another so-called "psychic" on his cases, and as is his norm, he goes out of his way to mock them and discredit them. There is a cop killer on the loose, and he needs to be stopped immediately. While playing his little mind games with the fake psychic Ellis Mars (John Billingsley), Jane solves the mystery of the true killer – police officer Todd Johnson (Josh Braaten). He is arrested and specifically requests that Jane speak to him, and Lisbon begs Jane to just hear what the man wants. Jane goes down to hear what Johnson has to say, and finds the man burning to death in his cell. In the hospital, Jane sits by his bed to hear what the lunatic possibly had to tell him, and Johnson repeats the words "Tyger Tyger" from the Blake poem. Jane now knows that Red John was involved in what Johnson was doing as well as his death. Following the murder of Johnson, an official investigation into CBI members and the murder is opened, headed up by J.J. LaRoche (Pruitt Taylor Vince). LaRoche seems intent on hearing each and everything that Jane has to say, and slowly but surely starts chipping away at the team. Jane reaches out to the retired Virgil Minelli (Gregory Itzin) and calls in some favours after Jane convinces him that Johnson was a member of Red John's network and that Jane this time has a step up on Red John, because he does not know that Jane knows.
LaRoche questions Rigsby about his criminal father and a flimsy alibi that Rigsby provided in which he named Cho in, as well. Rigsby is forced to tell Cho this, and it seems that their friendship crumbles rapidly. Cho has never lied to another cop in his life, and will not do it for Rigsby, though when he is questioned by LaRoche, his toes are stepped on and he lies about the alibi. Jane meets up with a scientific criminal profiler named Dr Montague (Linda Park) and has an absolute blast disproving her theories. Rigsby attempts to go out with her, but she says it will never work because he is still in love with someone else. Rigsby and Cho finally overcome their anger and resentment towards one another, and their friendship is restored. Jane gets into the head of a man accused of killing his wife, and refuses to pay a traffic fine he was issued due to attitude. Lisbon goes underhanded and leaks information to manipulate Bertram to her cause, and he is impressed as well as vexed, all at once. Lisbon takes a tumble on a prospecting case, and Hightower steps in to help out and works with Jane. She is under immense amounts of stress, and Jane doesn't push her further than he has to. She is in the midst of divorce proceedings, and her life is crumbling rapidly around her. Lisbon watches Hightower's kids for her while Hightower works the case.
LaRoche questions Hightower about Todd Johnson's murder, and hammers on the point that she was having an affair with one of the slain police officer's at a stage in her life, and that she must have been embittered about Johnson killing her former lover. Hightower denies it, and another case crops up that Jane and the team begin to investigate. What they discover, though, is that this murder is tied to Todd Johnson, and Jane quickly figures that after Teresa convinces the CBI that the murders are interconnected, that Hightower will be the one to shoulder the blame. In an attempt to help her out, they leave the CBI with Jane taped to a shotgun and Hightower to the trigger. No one can touch them, and LaRoche is furious when she escapes. Jane helps Hightower into hiding to get away from Red John who is now targeting her so that the CBI will stop looking for Johnson's murderer, who is also Red John's inside man.
Lisbon has it out with LaRoche about harassment and about the complaint she is going to write to her superiors before she finds out that he is Hightower's replacement. He suspends her and puts Cho in charge to show her that he will not tolerate insubordination and maybe because he was playing with her. A new case arises and once again the coroner, Dr Steiner (George Wyner) is there, and Jane is going to have a field day harassing him. However, the corpse is stolen and Steiner blames himself, and Jane lets him on to the case. Van Pelt is looking for a wedding dress, and Rigsby dutifully takes her where she needs to be, and hurts that she is marrying another man. Steiner knows that Jane knows that he is sick, and appreciates Jane letting him have a little fun before he dies, and the two turn out to be great friends when they stop being at odds with one another. Steiner requests that Jane be present when he overdoses so that there will be no autopsy – he wishes to avoid the suffering before his death, which is roughly a month away anyhow. At first Jane refuses, then obliges Steiner his dying wish.
Jane meets the latest "victim" in a crime, and immediately pins Erica Flynn (Morena Baccarin) the murderer and not the victim. She is convinced that she is smarter than he is, and together they dance a dangerous dance, of which Patrick naturally wins and maintains the upper hand. It is revealed here again that Jane will never love another woman again and that his wife is still the only person in his life. Jane orchestrates a burglary of LaRoche's house (naturally unbeknownst to the rest of the team) and is very distracted when he needs to get the burglar out of prison. Jane wanted the shortlist that LaRoche had about who was in the immediate vicinity when Johnson was killed because he needs to know who could possibly be the inside man. Jane is distracted, and eventually tells Lisbon what is going on. Naturally she is angry, but hits the burglar so that the case will be dismissed so that Jane will not be implicated in any way.
Rigsby comes to blows with his ex-con father when a prison stabbing goes down outside the walls, and his hatred and anger towards the man boils over. Rigsby gains some freedom over what goes down, and tells Van Pelt that he will not be at her wedding because he cannot watch the love of his life marry another man. Liberated, he leaves. The team investigates a bombing at a local gas station, and they dig into it heavily. Jane finds out that the perpetrator was the victim, and that the whole thing had nothing to do with cash, but everything to do with these client lists as a money moving company. Lisbon is attacked by whoever the perpetrator may be, and a bomb is strapped to her. Jane solves the riddle quickly, and they discover a body – the victim was related to Hightower. Jane realizes that Red John is hunting her, and they get out of there, quickly.
Hightower visits Jane and thanks him for all that he has done, but says that she wants to turn herself in and exonerate herself before a jury. Jane asks for forty eight hours to close the loop around Red John's inside man quickly, and so he begins. Jane informs the team that he knows where Hightower is and that he assisted her, and tells them about the Blake poem as well as the plan. Jane threatens LaRoche and gets his shortlist, and Van Pelt's fiancé is on it. They start an elaborate plan to see who is the inside man – Bertram, Brenda Shettrick (Rebecca Wisocky), the CBI press liaison, DA Osavldo Ardiles (David Norona) or Craig. It appears that it is Bertram, but the worst happens when it turns out to be Craig, who executes two police officers and shoots Lisbon. Hightower and Van Pelt shoot him to death, and he dismisses her even as he is dying. Jane is at the mall and finds Red John (Bradley Whitford). The two share a conversation, and after Red John pushes him too far, Jane shoots and kills him.
Best Episode: Red Hot / The Red Mile
Worst Episode: Rhapsody in Red
I really enjoyed this season. Bertram has me worried at times about Red John, especially after quoting the Blake poem in one of the episodes, but at the same time I feel that that would be too obvious. Watching Van Pelt move on with another man while Rigsby gets crushed about it was very sad, though Craig irritated me no end. There was just something so off about the man. I am going to say this – I adored LaRoche from the off, though most people did not. He was such a fresh and unique character, and he was played fantastically by Pruitt Taylor Vince. Major props for that. Jane entertained me no end again with his antics and tomfoolery, yet all the while he is still so broken and damaged, especially watching the end of the tape Erica Flynn made with him where he speaks about the perfect woman and allows that it is his deceased wife. The story was pretty good in this one, too, and the character development progressed nicely. We got to know more about Rigsby (though I do not like how his father was cast, the guy just didn't really rock the role he was given – like trying to be too hardcore when he can't be. It is just the actor, not the role, I mean the Sons of Anarchy cast is well implemented), as well as Hightower. Lisbon really respects her, and we get a better look at Cho when he helped the kid get his father out of prison to keep him off of the streets and out of the gangs. Jane delved to new measures to try and find Red John, and Lisbon is still convinced that she can keep Jane on the short leash if they even manage to find the killer. Jane still swears vengeance. I thought the episode where Steiner and Jane come to a mutual understanding was beautiful and highly entertaining as well as completely heartbreaking. There were a few major flaws in the finale about how everything went down – such as when Craig executed the two cops while Grace was outside, would she not as a cop recognize the sound of a silencer, especially in the midst of what they were protecting? Also, when I saw the rope I immediately assumed it was to climb down, so it was shocking for me that Jane did not make that association. For me the biggest thing was that it cannot be Red John that was killed in the end – it would all be too simple, and not smart enough. That is the biggest alarm bell there.


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Candy House "Delightful" Basket of Treats
by Candy House | Item #: 548271 | Model #: DLGTBKT |
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About this itemA beautiful leather-look basket is filled with handmade chocolates and gourmet treats from Candy House in Joplin, Missouri. This delightful combination of English Toffee, Caramel Nut Corn, gourmet chocolates, and berry mix is the perfect gift for a family, office or client.
Be the one who gives the best gifts! Candy house has filled this small basket with our most popular items. Our English Toffee is to die for, and the Caramel Nut corn is just salty enough to create cravings for more chocolate. The Very Berry Mix is an assortment of dehydrated cherries, strawberries and blueberries covered in chocolate. Our chocolate assortment contains nut clusters, creams, meltaways, caramels and truffles.
This basket feeds 3 to 5 people.
- Brown leather-look basket
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L 8.5" x W 6" x H 12"
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CrystaLok windows add privacy and light to any room, this versatile, vinyl-framed, glass block window system simply nails into place. Glass blocks are a special building material made of glass and laid similarly to brick or concrete blocks. Commonly used as an alternative to traditional windows, especially in basements. For residential purposes, glass blocks are most commonly used as an alternative to basement windows. Glass block windows are more difficult for would-be thieves to penetrate and thus considered a more secure alternative. Homeowners can replace existing windows with glass blocks, but should note that a conversion means that the window can no longer be opened, making it only a source of light. Glass blocks are also considered more energy efficient than traditional plate glass windows.
- Welded seam vinyl frame that includes a nailing fin, an integral J channel, gated weep holes
- Constructed from real glass, scratch resistant and maintenance free
- Gentle ripples of light produced by the wave glass block pattern offer a moderate degree of privacy
- Can be cleaned with normal household cleaners
- Unit is ideal for use as a bathroom window, for garages, kitchens, entryway sidelights and transoms
- Block is of wave glass pattern that will transmit light while maintaining moderate privacy
- Window unit is 4 blocks wide by 5 blocks high
- Warranted to be free from manufacturing defects for 10-years from the date of purchase


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VICTORY: Utah Hospital Halts Cruel Cat Lab!
|muffet/cc by 2.0
We are very happy to report that as a result of pressure from PETA and more than 25,000 of our supporters, Utah's Primary Children's Medical Center (PCMC) has announced that it is canceling plans to torment cats in a cruel and archaic training exercise!
As it had in previous years, PCMC planned to offer this animal lab as part of an annual conference that is co-sponsored by the University of Utah. The cats—who would have been purchased from a local animal shelter—were slated to have hard plastic tubes forced down their windpipes and likely would have suffered bleeding, swelling, scarring, and even collapsed lungs. But thanks to the efforts of PETA supporters who took part in a short but vigorous campaign, the cats will now be spared this trauma, and the conference will only use modern simulators for the training.
Since last week, tens of thousands of compassionate people responded to PETA's e-mail action alert targeting PCMC, and hundreds posted comments on PCMC's wall on Facebook (prompting the hospital to shut down the page entirely). The owner of Salt Lake City's all-vegan Cakewalk Baking Company even made and hand-delivered a cake to PCMC's CEO in protest of the inhumane exercise.
This morning, we asked supporters to call PCMC and urge officials to do the right thing by calling off this exercise. Hundreds did just that, and some of you may have heard the news directly that PCMC was scrapping plans for this cruel laboratory.
While we are thrilled to celebrate this important victory for animals, we ask that you please take a moment to speak out against the cruel actions of North Utah Valley Animal Shelter (NUVAS)—the last shelter in Utah that continues to sell animals for experiments and the facility that would have provided cats to PCMC. PETA's successes depend on your willingness to take action. Let's keep the momentum going!
Written by Jeremy Beckham
Commenting is closed.
Please do something that will set an amazing example to the rest of the world, of what good humans are capable of doing to help end the suffering of animals.
Sentient creatures do not deserve this treatment.
If you can do this to animals,you are not a human.You are a monster and in some time you will get back evrth what are u doing now to animals,definitely…..
you make me sick !!!
It is a shame that those responsible for enlightenment are exactly the ones that keep humanity in the dark ages!
STOP THIS CRUEL BUSINESS!!!!! cHE ORRORE DI FRONTE AL MONDO!!
Oh my goshh, this really needs to stop 🙁
Please use your authority for something worthwhile, something that will make a difference for the lives of these innocent, good natured living breathing creatures. Please do something that will set an amazing example to the rest of the world, of what good humans are capable of doing to help end the suffering of animals.
la crueldad de los hombres respecto a los animales no tiene límites
Are you insane??? How can you be so cruel, so sick!!!! There IS NO EXCUSE to hurt animals, for your "research" you people are an embarrassment to the human race… Im disgusted and I really don´t know how can you look into your childrens, parents, friends, eyes… STOP THIS NOW!!!!!
I greatly appreciate all the hard work done by PETA. We all know that compassion recycles!
OMG, What is the matter with you people? It is sick what you are doing!There is no need in the 21st century to do what you are doing get a grip on life and stop being so damn cruel.How would you like it, if it was your family pet????? Think you!!!!!!
Stop this cruel and senseless business, it is too awfull to watch1
how could people do this it actually really makes me mad to think how someone did this just think how would you like being having a tube put down your wind pipe so stop !
I feel absolutely disgusted. The human race has been gruesome every year, more and more. I wished we could all banish them.
This is cruel, animals should NEVER be used as test subjects, use people, at least they can say whats happening to them, unlike the animals, animal testing is wrong, soo wrong, it needs to stop, In older day's cats were seen as a god, not test subjects, now there seen as just animals…..If this is how evolution has evolved I don't want to be a part of this generation….
r men human any more???ppl hav turned into demons……..
We are all animals! All lives have the same value! Stop the cruelty!
Do people have no heart? I mean honestly! This is just sick and awful. PLEASE STOP!
Please, make them stop!
Oh it gets worse than that. My brother used to work in the psychology labs as a janitor (for anyone who is skeptic, while putting himself through college) and these graduate students used to put electrodes in their brains. Years later I met a psychiatrist who, as a graduate student in psychology who was good at biochemistry had to explain to those idiots what exactly was going on. She hated it.
Please, stop it!!
Having tubes shoved down the throat of a cat is torture. It is inhumane and wrong. Please use human techniques of medical research or practice them on yourself. Thank you.
This is horrific, unnecessary and depraved. There are alternative methods available without this torture to living creatures!
animals are not to experiment on. people that train with animals to be doctors or nurses are not going to give a ship about their patients becuase they are not humane. they just care about the money. they are just like nazis
" 2011 ? So, is it not the time to go out of hell? ! Time to change, to recover the senses, reasoning and any level of consciousness that can be human… WE may need to move, re-exanimate what we are responsible for!
Hello. My name is Roman. If only people feel what animals feel during and after experiments on them. Results based on suffering and pain of living creatures will never work well for us and we will pay for this later. Thank you for your understanding. Roman Liufa, MD.
These animals were put on earth by Gos for a purpose. To love us, and for us to love them. Anyone that performs these cruel and sadistic experiments on animals are cruel and sadistic. If they have no respect for animal suffering then they didn't go into medicine. They have no sympathy, no humanity. The're just in it for the money and the prestige. They look at human patients no differently than they look at their lab animals. God will punish these people.
When will this cruelty end???
These animals are pets, they are not feral animals. Some guy getting paid from the lab is taking animals out of peoples yards. I want you to know that there is no closure and the amount of money you are spending on our pets you should get updated equipment where there is no hurt, no harm & no loss to their owners.
I say lets keep an eye on these guys there cruel and sneaky.I have a hard time believing anyone who harms animals or helps anyone who harms animals.Lets check back in a week then in a month.Never stop checking to see if they are somehow using animals in ways that harm or neglect Gods creatures.We got your back PETA!!!We are keeping a close eye on you University of Ohio and North Valley Animal Shelter.
CW, explain to me how intubating a cat is in any way relative to intubating a child or infant. I fail to see the vaguest similarity which would make the experience have any potential for saving human lives, or any redemptive value at all. Furthermore, there are simulators which replicate the human child/infant's respiratory system exactly, and can provide immediate feedback for the person being trained to learn from, without that person having to deal with the impact/distraction of messing up on a live creature. Your 'it's for the good of mankind' argument is both archaic and moot. The cruelty will end, get over it.
singleminded and lack of any critical thinking skills…thank you for your compliments!! If you are so sure you want to save human lives, common, donate your body to science NOW or try to convince your government to invest money on better investigations to find a way to do research without using torture. Kill an animal to save another (yes, we're animals) is the worst thing i've ever heard! and please, if you don't like animals (I'm sure you'll kill for your doggy) don't enter here!
I am curious to know if an Ambulance service were to go to a local animal shelter and tell them this is the type of training lab they wanted to hold and the animal shelter killd several cats/kittens and then froze them for this purpose – who would an animal lover such as myself contact to stop this!!!!????
CW- PETA and many of our supporters who are medical professionals let PCMC know that the American Academy of Pediatrics, the Emergency Nurses Association, and the American Heart Association—which sponsor the most widely taught neonatal and infant life-support courses in the country—endorse the exclusive use of simulation technology, not live animals, for intubation training. It is wrong to experiment on animals for the same reason that it is wrong to experiment on the poor, the mentally disabled, or the institutionalized. That they are smaller, weaker, or less able to communicate in ways that we can understand does not give us the right to barter their lives away.
@CW No, anyone who dislikes this article is clearly less evolved and needs to realize that humans aren't the only living beings in the world that deserve respect and rights. I'd love to put you in these cruel, abusive treatments and tell you it's okay, because it's for cancer research. Testing on them for things that benefit us is wrong; especially in the cruel, painful ways it is executed on these animals. The only reasons that they are forced into these cruel conditions is because they don't have the voice to say no, and people assume it's okay because they are less intelligent than we are. But it's because they are less intelligent than we are that we should take care of them. Saying it's okay to test on them, is like saying it's okay to test on a mentally handicapped mute; because they can't say no or reason with us to stop. People used to treat woman like animals in america, until Alice Paul and others fought for their rights. Although animals are not going to be voting or going to school, they still deserve not to be harmed physically; if you disagree with that YOU are the unevolved, singleminded idiot who needs to be put in their position and see what it's like.
Thx. PETA for getting this petition together & finally putting a STOP to this horrible incident!–:) I signed the petition & POSTED a friendly note on Utuh Hospital's site & one on mine @ Face book! I so happy that it worked & the animals are saved!–:)
I just want to show my gratitude for PETA & all the good-hearted people who are willing to take the stance to end cruelty to animals & hold companies & institutions responsible for their inhumane behavior! Thx. agian & keep up the good work!–:)
How do you people sleep at night. You can no longer hide behind the "it will save human lives" as it has been proven there is no comparison between a human beings and an animals. It is just plain cruel.
To everyone who's asked what's happened to the cats- According to public statements from Primary Children's Medical Center (PCMC), the hospital did not move forward with plans to acquire cats from shelters for this year's lab. While PCMC did the right thing by halting this cruel and archaic lab, some institutions still use cats for this harmful purpose and PETA fights to stop this abuse wherever it occurs. https://secure.peta.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=3147. Thank you for your concern for these cats!
Are the people at Utah Lab without souls??
Really PETA? You want to stop research that can potentially save human lives? And how come, Beckham, you only write about the negatives of the research. We have no pictures or secondhand accounts to go by, just your own. This is such a poorly written article. I realize that PETA is an organization that wants ethical treatment for all animals, but really, you want to prevent scientific research?! Anyone who bites for this article is singleminded and lacks any critical thinking skills.
Thank you so much PETA, I am so happy about this victory!!! I wish this kind of actions were done in Europe… in Germany where I live PETA is not very strong and in Romania where I come from it doesn't exist at all…..
Thank you PETA for making the petition possible and thank you U OF U for realizing that cats are people too!
Joy Ashall: In your post you said, "God said……" and I'm wondering where you got this? I'm very interested. Thanks. I'm afraid I may have posted on Facebook about boycotting PCMC fund-raiser going on now when they actually had capitulated on the idea of torturing animals in their pediatric education lab. I'm so thankful they did! It made a very happy Valentines day for me 🙂


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Pine Hill parents and friends are knitting at 7 pm at the Hilltop Cafe. Join us for an evening of creativity, conversation and cookies! Hot tea and any baked goods left from the day will be available for a small donation to the cafe. Bring your own craft project of choice and enjoy the company while you work.
Friends from the surrounding community are welcome! Contact Sarah with questions at 654-6003, ext. 308.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012 - 7:00pm to 9:00pm
Tuesday, December 11, 2012 - 7:00pm to 9:00pm
Tuesday, January 22, 2013 - 7:00pm to 9:00pm


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Publication Abstracts
Mishchenko et al. 2007
, , G. Kopp, C.F. Schueler, B.A. Fafaul, , R.J. Hooker, T. Itchkawich, H.B. Maring, and , 2007: Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: Introducing the Glory mission. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677-691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677.
The NASA Glory Mission will support the U.S. Climate Change Science Programand is intended to continue and improve upon long-term monitoring of two key forcings influencing global climate. One of the mission principal objectives is to determine the global distribution of detailed aerosol and cloud properties with unprecedented accuracy, thereby facilitating a reliable quantification of the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate. The other is to continue the 28-year record of satellite-based measurements of total solar irradiance and thereby enable the quantification of the effect of solar variability on the Earth's climate. These objectives will be met by flying two state-of-the-art science instruments on an Earth-orbiting platform. Based on a proven technique demonstrated with an aircraft-based prototype, the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) will collect accurate multi-angle photopolarimetric measurements of the Earth along the satellite ground track within a wide spectral range extending from the visible to the short-wave infrared. The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) is an improved version of an instrument currently flying on the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and will provide accurate and precise measurements of spectrally-integrated sunlight illuminating the Earth. Since Glory is expected to fly as part of the A-Train constellation of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, the APS data will also be used to improve retrievals of aerosol climate forcing parameters and global aerosol assessments with other A-Train instruments. In this paper, we detail the scientific rationale and objectives of the Glory mission, explain how these scientific objectives dictate the specific measurement strategy, describe how the measurement strategy will be implemented by building and flying the APS and TIM, and briefly outline the overall structure of the mission. It is expected that the Glory results will be used extensively by members of the climate, solar, atmospheric, oceanic, and environmental research communities as well as in education and outreach activities.
- Get PDF (3.5 MB)
- Go to journal webpage


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Fast Rising Music Act, Laolu, drops another ground breaking song Forever. This arguably is the best alternative song of the year already. Does he have...
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Does this refer to Oldham entering an agreement with St Helens similar to Hunslet-Leeds and Swinton-Warrington? In my opinion sees us simply becoming a feeder club for Saints.
Hope this isn't the case but if so agree with Andy, this is a new all time low for Oldham and RL.
Edited by sheddings69, 14 September 2012 - 10:09 AM.


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Bulgarian Nationalist Backs Belene N-Plant Project
VMRO leader Krasimir Karakachanov. Photo by BGNES
Krasimir Karakachanov, leader of Bulgaria's marginal nationalist party VMRO, has declared his party's support for the development of nuclear energy in the country through the construction of a nuclear power plant in the town of Belene.
Karakachanov has said that some 70% to 80% of those who will cast their ballots during the upcoming referendum on the fate of nuclear energy in Bulgaria will vote in favor of its development.
However, he doubts whether enough people would head to the polls for the referendum to be declared valid.
Karakachanov has stated that Bulgaria's two existing nuclear reactors will have to be closed between 2017 and 2019, forcing the country to import electricity from Romania and Turkey.
The referendum was initially triggered by the oppositional Bulgarian Socialist Party's desire to revive the abandoned Belene nuclear power plant project.
The pro-Belene party launched a petition for a referendum on the Russian-Bulgarian project's fate after the ruling centrist-right GERB scrapped the project in March. The original question of the petition was: "Should nuclear energy be developed in Bulgaria through the building of a Nuclear Plant at the Belene site?"
However, GERB's parliamentary majority decided to edit the question, removing any specific reference to the Belene project. The ruling party stated that a referendum on a particular project would be unconstitutional.
The referendum will take place on January 27.
You are permitted to use any of the articles in this message only if you kindly quote the source - Novinite.com.


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Follow @DaytimeRoyalty
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|Friday, January 4th Daily Discussion
|Tweet Topic Started: Jan 4 2013, 04:54 AM (14,863 Views)
|Jan 6 2013, 04:45 PM Post #241
We don't know who EJ grew up with actually because they've changed it several times.
|Jan 6 2013, 06:13 PM Post #242
Ohh and could someone not have mentioned there was another fist pumping in this episode. It makes my skin crawl.
or the chasse -
Edited by concerned, Jan 6 2013, 06:17 PM.
|Jan 6 2013, 06:20 PM Post #243
|Poor EJ ... he's always been blind to Brady's charms.
|camera shy
|Jan 6 2013, 07:48 PM Post #244
Ha, where's Nicole to say, "I don't blame you" to Kristen :D
|Jan 7 2013, 11:49 AM Post #245
aside from Tannifer and Chud, this was a pretty great week for DAYS. I attribute it to Kristen, mostly. ED really is some kind of amazing.
Although this makes me frightened for the coming weeks lol
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Norwegian Dawn Cruise Review by Seadawgsx2: It was the best of times it was the WORST of times
Overall Member Rating
It was the best of times it was the WORST of times
Destination: Southern Caribbean
Embarkation: Miami
Its a telling sign when those who once followed you now chase you. For years NCL has been our favorite cruise line. As veteran cruisers (19 for me and 23 for my wife) we are very familiar with several cruise lines and many ships. NCL Dawn is BY FAR the worst we have been aboard.
The design is very disjointed and public areas have suffered to offer tens of thousand square feet of unused pay restaurant space. There is no "Great Outdoors" dining area or Aft dining which is on most ships. The pool deck is crammed with chairs, tables and loungers leaving little access.
This ship is plagued by a staff that loves to hear themselves talk over the ships intercom. Messages are BLASTED throughout the ship making it impossible to relax. If the ship docks at 7AM a lengthy diatribe will be unleashed, blasting into every nook and cranny. ART AUCTION!!! BINGO!!! Simple messages take several minutes to deliver. On days you tender it is non stop for hours in 3 More languages.
If you have booked this ship and cannot change bring Bose headphones.
There are some positives on this ship. By far the best pastries in the buffet you will get on a cruise ship. The buffet is also the best place to eat. We ate in both main restaurants as well as "Cagneys" and La Cucina. The food is good but the service is terrible. There is no bar service in the main dining rooms, so if you want a drink or a bottle of wine, you are just adding to the work load for the wait staff which is already heavy. The Bimini Grill is a great place for lunch and the bartender, Emmerson and his staff are the best.
There is good entertainment on this ship. The piano bar "Gatsby's" has fantastic options and excellent service. Don't miss "Band on the Run" in the Stardust.
You can enjoy yourself on this cruise when you stop thinking of how much better it could have been. It took us about 5 days. Less
Published 12/31/11
Read more Norwegian Dawn cruise reviews >>
Read Cruise Critic's Norwegian Dawn Review >>
Cabin review: IB9099 Mid-Ship Inside
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Not as good as past cruises
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Sky is great for a getaway!
Great time but too short!
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Overseas Union Enterprise in Singapore is feeling out market demand for a hotel REIT listing that would raise $800 million, sources say. This would be Singapore's third-largest IPO this year. The company also named a CEO to head the REIT and said it has received permission from the Singapore stock exchange for the REIT.
Full Story:Reuters