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Results tagged ' Colby Lewis '
At The Quarter Pole
Hard to believe, the season is already at the 25% mark. The Texas Rangers finished the first quarter of the season a lackluster 18-23 at the quarter pole but, considering the season started at 8-16, it's not horrible. Horrible would be the team behind the Rangers in the standings, the Oakland A's, who are a full five games behind Texas, which sits in fourth, a half game out of third.
At the end of April, the Rangers' report card reflected a totally awful offense. The first quarter report card has improved.
The offense has improved greatly from April. The season's opening month saw the Rangers offense putting together a miserable slash line of .210/.293/.318 with an OPS+ of just 75 (league average would be 100). Shin-Soo Choo ended April at .092. The offense has recovered in May so now they stand at a more respectable .237/.312/.383 with an OPS+ of 96. It still isn't good but it's improved to just below average. If the Texas offense performs the rest of the season the way they have in May, the numbers at season's end could be in the upper third in the league. At this point, the biggest need for offensive improvement is the average with runners in scoring position. The Rangers sit at a measly .214 with RISP. Only 16 of their 117 extra base hits have come with runners in scoring position and only 37 have come with a man on first. Texas is hitting for decent extra base power but nobody's on base when they do it. Grade: C
Defensively, the Rangers have committed 33 errors in 41 games. Only Oakland has committed more in the AL. Greatness wasn't expected defensively, despite a couple of well-regarded defenders like Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus. In Baseball Reference's defensive stats, Texas has a MINUS 5 on Total Fielding Runs Above Average, putting them 10th among the AL's 15 teams. The good news is Prince Fielder admitted Mitch Moreland is a better defensive first baseman than he is and will agreeably be the DH if it helps the team win more games. Grade: D
Starting Pitching
The rotation took a header right off the bat when Derek Holland went down shortly after making his first start. With Yu Darvish already lost for the year, it was yet another hit the pitching staff could ill afford. The joke is, the Rangers have a better rotation on the Disabled List than many teams have on their active roster (Darvish, Holland, Martin Perez, Matt Harrison and Nick Tepesch). Colby Lewis and Nick Martinez have been outstanding, Yovani Gallardo below average (more later), Ross Detwiler awful and Wandy Rodriguez a godsend. Grade: C
Relief Pitching
A nice 4-game stretch to close out the season's first quarter makes the relief stats look better but only Oakland has a worse bullpen thus far. When Neftali Feliz blew a save on May 16th against the Indians, it gave Texas more Blown Saves than Saves on the season. There have been some bright spots: rookie Keone Kela and long reliever Anthony Bass but overall, inconsistency has been the pen's modus operandi. One night they'll look like killers, the next like victims. Jeff Bannister has made moves lately to try solidifying the bullpen. Feliz is no longer the closer. Shawn Tolleson has taken to the role so far, having picked up saves in consecutive nights against the Red Sox. Other than that, Banny says he's not going to have role players in his bullpen for now. He'll play match-ups more than having a 7th inning guy or an 8th inning guy. Grade: D-
Biggest Surprises
There is no bigger surprise than the play of Rule 5 pick Delino DeShields. The expectation for Double D, who hit only .236 for AA Corpus Christi last season, was, at best, being the 24th guy on the 25-man team, serving primarily as a late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement. Instead, he's putting pressure on the Rangers to find a place for him in the line-up every day once Josh Hamilton arrives.
DeShields leads the club in steals with 10. He's actually tied with Adrian Beltre for first on the team in WAR at 0.9. He leads all Rangers regulars in pitches seen per at bat at 4.09 (Tommy Field is better but only has 9 games under his belt). When Hamilton joins the roster, DeShields could find himself in a CF platoon with Leonys Martin as well as a 2B platoon with Field.
While he has an impressive track record, nobody thought Prince Fielder would be as good as he's been thus far. Fielder's hitting for average, he's hitting for power, he's been the steadiest hitter all season. Facing a shift just about every day, Prince has learned to hit against it, going the opposite way many a time. He leads the AL in multiple hit games. And, as mentioned earlier, he manned up and became the primary DH because he saw that Mitch Moreland's D gives the team a better chance to win.
On the pitching front, Colby Lewis, Nick Martinez and Keone Kela all get nods. Lewis has possibly been even better than he was in the Rangers' World Series years. Usually one of the league leaders in home runs allowed, he's only given up three in 8 starts. In 50 innings he has 41 K's, outstanding for a pitcher whose fastball seldom tops 90 on the radar guns. All this on a resurfaced hip. Colby pitched in pain for years. Now he probably wishes he'd done the procedure sooner.
Martinez was hands down the AL's best pitcher in April, posting a sub 1.00 ERA. He's struggled in his last few starts but still sports a 3-0 record with a 1.88 ERA. Pretty good for a guy who had never pitched above AA when forced into the Rangers plans a year ago. Martinez was below average a year ago, expected considering his situation, but posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 5 September starts. Seeing his success roll over to 2015 is great.
Keone Kela is a rookie who's performed well in every role the Rangers have given him this year. He's been used in long relief, short relief, in the middle of games and in high leverage late inning situations. Through it all, he's put up a 3-1 record, 2.25 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 20 innings. Only 22 years old, Kela is already thought of as a future closer in another year or two.
Biggest Disappointments
With three-fourths of the season still ahead, everyone has time to improve back to expected levels. Still, two of the biggest disappointments are infielders.
Everyone had high hopes for second baseman Rougned Odor following a rookie campaign in which the 21-year-old hit a respectable .259 with 9 home runs and 48 RBI. This writer projected Odor for about .270 this season with 14 home runs and 70 RBI. Instead, he laid a big egg. The league adjusted to Odor and he didn't adjust back. With a .144 average after 29 games, Texas sent Odor to AAA Round Rock to get his game back. He'll likely be back no later than the All-Star break (and already has 3 Home Runs for the Express) but nobody expected him to get sent down either, so who knows?
Meanwhile, his teammate Elvis Andrus has everyone worried. Never a great hitter, Elvis is regressing so far again this year, checking in at this writing at .224 with a homer and 11 RBI. After spending most of his career as the #2 hitter in the line-up, Andrus shows up at #6 more often than not these days. Once he's on base, he only has 5 steals in 8 eight attempts. This would all be acceptable if he played defense the way he's known to, but even that is regressing. Elvis has nine errors in the season's first 41 games and should have gotten tagged with his 10th in a game against the Red Sox this week. Put it all together and you have a MINUS 0.5 WAR. That's right, Elvis is now considered a BELOW REPLACEMENT LEVEL player! This from a guy who averaged over 4 WAR from 2011 to 2013. Oh yeah and a new long-term contract just kicked in this year. The only thing saving Elvis right now is the Rangers feeling they don't have an everyday shortstop down on the farm. I think the problem is mental. In the World Series years, the Rangers were full of leaders and Elvis could just enjoy playing baseball. Now he's a veteran and maybe expected to do more and he's letting it get to him. If he doesn't hit, fine. But Elvis, you've got to get your D back!
On the pitching side, I could say Neftali Feliz is a disappointment but he's never regained his velocity since Tommy John surgery. For me, the biggest pitching disappointment is Yovani Gallardo. Sure, he's a bit removed from his days fronting the Brewers rotation. But I didn't expect him to have so many command issues. Gallardo is 3-6 with a somewhat respectable 4.26 ERA but it seems every start is a struggle for him. I've gotten used to Eric Nadel describing the action on the radio and hearing an opposing batter has worked the count to 3-2 on Gallardo. He's only allowed 15 walks but every batter feels like a long battle. While he's not a heat thrower, Gallardo is reminding me of Rich Harden in 2010, where you just prayed the at bat would end soon. He's averaging less than 6 innings a start and he's the guy who's needed as the "ace" with Holland and Darvish out. When acquired, Gallardo got pencilled in as the #3 starter. He's pitched like more of a #4 than the #1 or 2 results the Rangers need from him now.
That's the first quarter report card. Overall grade: C-
85 or 64 Wins? Whose Prediction Is Closer?
One thing is clear, though not scientifically proven, by reading fan comments on social media and message boards: most of them think their teams are better than what they've shown.
I figure on average, fans think their baseball teams are about ten wins better than the number of wins they end the season with. Even fans who know their teams will be terrible figure they can't suck as badly as they eventually show us they do. On the other end of the spectrum, one only has to look at teams that win 100 games a year routinely, as the Yankees did in the early 2000's, to know that their fans thought they should have won 110 games every year, if not more. This is really the "Backseat Manager" effect, that strange affliction that tells us we could do a better job managing our team than the current man in the position.
All this as preface to this Rangers fan still thinking, even without Yu Darvish, his team still is capable of being an 85 win team. The odds are great that they won't get to 85. The bullpen beginning the season is nothing to brag about. The offense has the core back from injury but not enough depth to deal with any injuries to that core again. The starting rotation is actually the strong point despite the loss of their ace. It's certainly a stronger rotation front to back than the one the Rangers rolled out most nights in 2014. Yeah, 85 wins seems a tad optimistic, but dang it, that's the potential this team has.
Even if I'm ten wins off, 75 wins is a darn sight better than Bruce Bukiet thinks Texas will do. I should say what Bukiet's mathematical model says they will do. Bukiet has the skins. He's a mathematician who also runs a gambling analysis website. His winner's picks have been pretty accurate. Here's what CBS News wrote about Bukiet's predictions last year and the chart of this year's picks:
"Before the start of the 2014 season, Bukiet correctly predicted that Detroit would go on to win the American League Central, the Dodgers would win the National League West, St. Louis would win the Central and Washington would win the NL East."
What I quibble with is not the top but the bottom of the standings. Bukiet's mathematical model says the Rangers will finish 64-98 in 2015. Let that sink in. 64 wins. The Rangers of a year ago won 67 games, most of them without Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Holland and Mitch Moreland. Darvish missed about the last quarter of the season and Jurickson Profar, the expected second baseman, played zero games. Zero.
Fielder is back this year, as is Choo and Moreland. Holland is here for the whole season. Colby Lewis has a year's experience on his new hip and was visibly better in the second half of 2014 than the first half. Nick Martinez and Rougned Odor are two sophomores with a year of experience under their belts.
In other words, barring injury (and every pre-season prediction doesn't consider injury), the Rangers offense is better than it was a year ago, the starting rotation is better than it was a year ago. The bullpen begins the year sketchy but the reinforcements on the DL are not expected out for long.
Maybe my 85 win hopes are ten games better than they'll probably finish, but Bukiet's 64 win prediction? No way.
Texas-Oakland kicks off the season Monday night. Time to forget last year and make this year count.
A Team Takes Shape
One week from Opening Day and the Opening Day roster is starting to take shape for the Texas Rangers.
Gone are non-roster veterans Ryan Ludwick and Nate Shierholtz. Nick Tepesch and Anthony Ranaudo will not appear in the starting rotation. At this point, only the utility infield position is available on the offensive side and three bullpen slots are open.
Here's what the Rangers are looking like so far:
1B Prince Fielder
2B Rougned Odor
SS Elvis Andrus
3B Adrian Beltre
C Robinson Chirinos
C Carlos Corporan
DH Mitch Moreland
LF Ryan Rua
LF Jake Smolinski
CF Leonys Martin
RF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Delino DeShields, Jr.
The only minor surprise here is DeShields making the team as the 5th outfielder. A Rule 5 pick who's never played above Double A, DeShields' speed ended up being the deciding factor that sent the more powerful Ludwick and Shierholtz to pondering what to do next with their careers.
The only remaining offensive position open is utility infielder. Adam Rosales is still the favorite to get that slot. He's had a good camp and was a good complementary piece a year ago. Yet there are still 4 utility infield candidates still in camp: Rosales, Ed Lucas, Elliot Johnson and Tommy Field. Field has been a slight surprise. The former Texas State athlete has played in just about every game in spring training and shown some pop with two home runs. Field has had a couple of cups of coffee in the bigs with Colorado and the LA Angels, but got released by both the Angels and the Pirates last year. I still don't think Field makes the club but will instead be the starting second baseman at AAA Round Rock. I do think if Rougned Odor has a sophomore slump that Field would become a consideration as a starting replacement instead of Rosales, who would stay in a utility role. Lucas and Johnson? They'll probably be released and signed just before Opening Day by another club.
Over to the pitchers. Here's your Rangers rotation:
Yovani Gallardo
Derek Holland
Colby Lewis
Ross Detwiler
Nick Martinez
Martinez won the 5th starter slot on the basis of a strong spring 0.84 ERA, capped off by six scoreless innings in his last start. He ended 2014 strong and came out firing bullets in '15. Tepesch, who also spent most of last season in Texas, showed the same tendencies that have dogged him in his career thus far. Great the first time through the order, considerably more hittable the second and third times through. He still has a shot at making the team in long relief, where he'd only need to face a line-up one time through.
The bullpen is more problematic. There are seven openings and thus far, these are the only sure bets:
Neftali Feliz (closer)
Tanner Scheppers (8th inning)
Shawn Tolleson (7th inning)
Sam Freeman
Freeman is a southpaw just picked up from the Cardinals. Before his acquisition, rookie Alex Claudio was the only lefty remaining in camp and he was starting to have troubles against left-handed batters in games. Freeman has a few years in the bigs under his belt and has a bullpen slot even though he just joined the team.
As for the other three slots? It's anyone's guess. A good case can be made for rookie Keone Kela, who has yet to give up a run in 8.1 innings this spring. He's allowed only two hits and struck out 10. Other candidates are Tepesch (10.38) ERA, Jon Edwards (1.69, 17 K's in 10.2 IP), Phil Klein (9.00 ERA), Kyuji Fujikawa (1.35 ERA), Lisalverto Bonilla (9.00 ERA) and Anthony Bass (9.00 ERA). Ross Ohlendorf (0.00 ERA, 1 hit and 11 K's in 5.1 IP) will have a role with the Rangers, but minor injuries will keep him off the active roster Opening Day. Rangers brass hope he'll be ready by May.
The bullpen doesn't sound very impressive, but most teams don't know how good their bullpen truly is for at least the first third of the season. You can also bet at least one waiver claim will bring someone new to the roster and at least one other slot becomes interchangeable with a shuttle going back and forth from Arlington to Round Rock.
Seven days left to Opening Day. It can't get here soon enough.
When Life Give You Lemons, Discuss The Lemonade
By now, even the average baseball fan is aware that Texas Rangers ace Yu Darvish is, at minimum, out for at least half the season with a strained ulnar collateral ligament and more likely gone for the season and headed for Tommy John surgery.
The response was immediate and expected from the Rangers faithful: already the 2015 season is gone. Kaput. Doomed. A 67-95 team already down its best pitcher? How could the response be any different?
How about this for a response: Losing Darvish most certainly DOES hurt but it doesn't mean the Rangers should automatically be picked to occupy the AL West cellar for the second consecutive year.
All one has to do is compare this year's Rangers pitching staff to the one that began the 2014 season to feel just a little bit better about things. Remember, a year, the Rangers already knew Derek Holland was already out until after the All-Star break at the earliest. Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison weren't penciled into the rotation until the end of April at the earliest. Then Darvish himself came down with a stiff neck and got scratched from the Opening Day start as a precaution. Thus, we had a Rangers starting rotation of Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Robbie Ross, Joe Saunders and Nick Martinez. Perez was beginning just his second major league season, Ross and Scheppers were transitioning from the bullpen and Martinez had never pitched above the AA level before. The rotation member with the most major league service was Saunders and everyone knew he was a #5 starter at best.
Compare that to the expected rotation without Darvish to start 2015- Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, Ross Detwiler and one of Martinez, Nick Tepesch and Anthony Ranaudo, obtained from the Red Sox for Robbie Ross. Or none of those three could be #5, replaced by Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez, the Rangers' #3 prospect behind Joey Gallo and Jorge Alfaro. Gonzalez threw three shutout innings against the A's just today (3/9) in an exhibition game.
When the news on Darvish came down, a lot of doom and gloom came down from fans, particularly on Twitter. Sure, it was understandable but those fans didn't expect this: Derek Holland replied to some of them. Dutch basically said, "Oh, so the other 24 members of the team don't matter?" "You think the rest of us should just give up?" It was a great response, especially from Holland.
Dutch has always had a label: good stuff, inconsistent and he's a goof. Anyone who's paid attention to Holland since he came back from knee microsurgery in September last year should note the difference in the public Derek Holland. He still likes to have fun but he's also let everyone know how he isn't satisfied how his career has gone so far (51-38 with a 4.38 ERA). Dutch was often scolded by former manager Ron Washington when he let his focus slide. Now you hear him talking about stepping up and being the ace if he has to, how he's striving for more consistency. If Holland's performance changes and matches the new intensity he's showing, Rangers fans could be in for a very big surprise this season.
Add to Dutch the newly acquired Yovani Gallardo. He's an innings eater, a former ace and someone whose new focus on getting groundouts instead of strikeouts plays right into Globe Life Park. Colby Lewis showed in the season's second half he'll be the same reliable starter he was in 2010 and 2011. Detwiler was a decent 9-8, 3.58 as a starter for the Nationals in 2012.
Without Darvish, the Rangers rotation will never be confused as one of the best in the American League. It won't even be the best in the AL West. It is, however, still better than the rotation the Rangers threw out there most of the 2014 season.
Looking Ahead To 2015: Starting Rotation
Here's the most telling stat on how the Texas Rangers fell from a perennial playoff team with 90 wins to the 67-95 mess of 2014: Texas used THREE complete starting rotations in one year.
That's right, 15 different pitchers got at least one start for the Rangers in 2014. If a member of the rotation never misses a start, he's on track to make 32 or 33 starts. For Texas, not a single starter managed even 30 starts and the pitcher who had the most starts, 29, didn't even play in 2013, was coming back from hip replacement surgery and posted a 6.54 ERA after his first 16 starts.
Yes, 2014 was a disaster from the get go for the Rangers pitching staff. It began before Spring Training even arrived, with Derek Holland messing up his knee in a home accident involving a flight of stairs and his dog. Thanks to a stiff neck, ace Yu Darvish got scratched from the Opening Day assignment and replaced by Tanner Scheppers, making his first ever major league start. Among the names getting a start in 2014 were Robbie Ross (12), Miles Mikolas (10), Scott Baker (8), Joe Saunders (8), Lisalverto Bonilla (3), Jerome Williams (2) and Phil Irvin (1).
More well-known names started but fell by the wayside. Second-year Martin Perez threw back to back complete game shutouts in April, then went down for the dreaded Tommy John surgery in May. Matt Harrison appeared on the comeback trail from back issues and thoracic outlet surgery, but lasted only four starts before back issues resurfaced. His career is in jeopardy. Lastly, Darvish began experiencing elbow discomfort and wound up making only 22 starts before calling it a season.
So why is there so much hope in Arlington this year? Believe it or not, it starts with starting pitching. A year ago, the lack of depth in the minors contributed to the poor performance of the pitching staff. This year, two guys who made over 20 starts for Texas a year ago aren't even sure if they'll make the team for the Season Opener. Here's the rotation as we know it:
There's no question Darvish is the ace of the staff. On any given night, there's the potential for greatness. Darvish has the biggest arsenal of pitches most anyone has seen. At any given time, a hitter can expect one of 8 to 10 different types of pitches. Yu is temperamental and will often shelve a pitch for good in the first inning if he feels it isn't working that day. Still, he's good for 15 wins or more for the season.
It was Dutch who suffered the first injury going into 2014. If the results he showed upon his return in September continue in 2015, this could be a special year for the lefthander. Holland made five starts down the stretch in 2014 and posted a 2-0 record with a 1.46 ERA, going seven innings in four of the five starts and giving up two earned runs or less in all of them. Holland has been inconsistent throughout his big league career but his 4-0 win over the Cardinals in Game 4 of the 2011 World Series ranks as one of the best performances in Rangers history. He's got the stuff. By all accounts, last year's injury has upped his desire. If Derek gets consistency, he could easily add another 15 wins to the Rangers total.
Gallardo is the new kid in town, a guy who lives in Fort Worth in the off-season and now truly gets to plays his home games at home. Gallardo is an innings eater and, as he's gotten older, has become more of a ground ball pitcher than a strikeout machine. Ask Matt Harrison and CJ Wilson how that ground ball thing works out in Arlington. There's reason for excitement about having at least a year of Gallardo (he becomes a free agent at season's end). He was once the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers staff. Now he's a #3. That's something to feel good about.
It's incredible to believe that Colby Lewis led the Rangers staff in starts with 29 in 2014. As mentioned above, this is a guy who didn't even play a game in 2013. After blowing out an elbow near the end of the 2012 season, Lewis' arthritic hip added to his woes, finally getting to the point where his career was in jeopardy. After getting his hip shaved, Lewis began a long rehab process. As much as a thank you for his contributions during the World Series years as anything, Lewis got the chance to rehab in the minors. Who knew the injuries on the big league club would bring him back to Texas in mid-April. The results weren't good the first half of the season. Just looking at box scores and statistics, one might think Lewis merely suffered from bad luck from the BABIP gods but those of us actually watching the games knew differently. Colby got shelled often. His pitches weren't fooling anyone and he wasn't hitting his spots. Remember, though, this is a guy who was still getting used to pitching without pain when putting pressure on the hip. Once he started getting used to it, the results were outstanding. From July 19 on, Lewis was only 4-8 but his ERA was 3.86. The BABIP through July 18 was .410. The rest of the way it was .267. Now Texas has the fully rehabbed Lewis for a full season and as their #4 starter instead of #2.
#5: Up For Grabs
This is the reason for optimism about the Rangers. A former #1 is now a #3, the former #2 is now the #4 and two of the guys fighting for the last spot were the #3 and #4 pitchers a year ago. This bodes well for the Rangers. It certainly gives them more depth than they had a year ago. Nick Tepesch (5-11, 4.36) and Nick Martinez (5-12, 4.55) are the incumbents. Martinez was here by necessity a year ago after never having pitched above AA all year. Despite staying all year, he'd surely benefit by at least beginning the year at AAA. For Tepesch, this is his third year with the Rangers. He needs to show improvement, particularly in facing the opposition batting order the second and third time. He still has at least one option so he could also go to AAA for a while. Martinez and Tepesch will compete with Lisalverto Bonilla, who pitched decently in three starts, newcomers Ross Detwiler (Nationals) and Anthony Ranaudo (Red Sox) and possibly top prospect Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez. Some have Gonzalez pegged as a possible surprise winner, but GM Jon Daniels would like to get him some more seasoning and not rush him. Before the first exhibition game is in the books, Detwiler and Tepesch are the likely front-runners.
In The Wings
He isn't available until after the All-Star break at the earliest but Martin Perez will be ready to pitch again this season. Meanwhile, there's no telling what will happen with Matt Harrison. Nobody has ever attempted to return from the type of back surgery he had. Harrison could come back or his career could be over. If it's the latter, he can retire knowing he was a vital part of two World Series teams.
No matter how you slice it, this is a much deeper starting rotation than the Rangers had a year ago. It may not stack up in quality to the Mariners rotation or even the A's but it has the potential of being a very good staff, not to mention one able to withstand an injury or two.
Texas Rangers Stars Of The Week: 4/7-4/13
Every Monday, this space names the Texas Rangers Stars of the Week. These are the guys who went above and beyond during the previous week. Each week two position players and one pitcher get special mentions. For position players, there's a Star of the Week for a full week's performance and one recognizing an outstanding single game. The pitching Star of the Week could be either.
Position Player Star of the Week (Single Game):
Robinson Chirinos is making a claim to start most of the games as catcher while Geovany Soto is on the mend.While this award is for a single game, Chirinos actually had two outstanding games during the week. In Tuesday's 10-7 win over the Boston Red Sox, Chirinos led off the third with a towering home run over the Green Monster to stake the Rangers to a 1-0 lead. It was the start of a 5-run uprising in the inning. Chirinos also added the last RBI of the inning when he walked with the bases loaded. In the fifth, with Texas up 8-1, Chirinos led off with a double and later scored the ninth run of the game. That's the OFFICIAL game Chirinos gets Star of the Week for. As an honorable mention, Friday's and Sunday's twin 1-0 wins over the Astros both featured Chirinos prominently. In Friday's 12-inning nail biter, Chirinos provided the 12th-inning single that plated the only run of the game in walk-off fashion. Sunday it was time for his defense to shine, as the Rangers catcher threw out two would-be Houston base stealers, helping Martin Perez earn his second win of the season. Below is Chirinos' home run in the Boston game:
Position Player Star of the Week (Full Week):
Kevin Kouzmanoff was the last man NOT to make the Texas Rangers 25-man squad out of Spring Training. The only reason he didn't make the team was because he was strictly a corner infielder, while Texas needed someone like Josh Wilson, who could play three infield positions. When Adrian Beltre went down with a tight quadriceps muscle in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox, Texas summoned Kouzmanoff from AAA Round Rock in a hurry. Despite not having played in the majors in almost three years, Kouzmanoff got off to a quick start for the Rangers, getting hits in each of his first four games with Texas. Kooz actually has a six game big-league hitting streak going now, with a 900+ day gap between games two and three of the streak! For the week, he hit .417 with a double and RBI. With Sunday's announcement of Beltre going on the disabled list retroactive to Wednesday 4/9, Kouzmanoff will be the Rangers starting third baseman for the next week and a half minimum. If he continues to play the way he has the first four games, not only does it help the Rangers short-term, it will make it hard for Jon Daniels to send him back to Round Rock once Beltre is back.
Originally, Yu Darvish was my winner for the second consecutive week for his dominant effort against the Astros, where he threw one-hit ball at the Astros over eight innings, striking out nine. Then along came Martin Perez on Sunday. To be sure, Darvish had a "better" game than Perez but the 23-year-old was just as spectacular against a woeful offensive attack from Houston. Plus, unlike Darvish, Perez got credited with the win. In his third start of the season, Perez went eight strong innings, giving up no runs on five hits and three walks with two strikeouts. The young lefty also started resembling southpaws who have come before him over the past few years in Texas, Matt Harrison and C.J. Wilson. Both were among the league leaders in getting hitters to ground into double plays. Over his past two starts, Perez has induced nine double plays including four by the Astros in Sunday's game. Add in the two caught stealing by Robinson Chirinos and Perez never allowed an Astros baserunner to get into scoring position. Click here to see highlights of the Perez win.
The Week That Was & The Week That Will Be
Texas went 3-3 the second week, treading water while dealing with their injury woes. Texas went 1-2 in Boston against the Red Sox, while winning two of three from the Astros at home. The offense has struggled mightily since Beltre went down as shown by the two 1-0 games against the lowly Astros. With no Beltre, Houston intentionally walked Prince Fielder three times over the weekend. Fielder has yet to hit a home run as a Rangers player, though he stung the ball hard both Saturday and Sunday. The once-feared Rangers power attack has only managed five home runs in the first 12 games. That HAS to improve or treading water will soon become an extended losing streak, no matter how great the pitching.
The Rangers are at home all week with four games against division-rival Seattle and three against the Chicago White Sox. The biggest highlight of the week is Wednesday night's game, when Yu Darvish squares off against Felix Hernandez. Darvish has thrown 15 scoreless innings thus far (15 innings in which the Rangers have not scored a run for him either), while Hernandez has struck out 30 batters in his first 21 1/3 innings. Also on tap: the return of Colby Lewis, who throws the opener against the Mariners tonight. Lewis hasn't pitched in the majors since July 18th, 2012. He's not only coming back from elbow surgery but also a hip resurfacing procedure. Nobody knows whether Lewis will have the stamina to go every fifth day for the rest of the season, let alone if he can still pitch effectively in the big leagues. Nobody has ever tried coming back from hip resurfacing in baseball before. What we do know is, based on how he performed in the World Series years for Texas, Globe Life Park will be rocking tonight and Lewis is sure to get an incredible reception from the fans when he strides to the mound in the top of the first.
Oddity of the Week
Elvis Andrus got ejected from Sunday's game for arguing a called third strike at the end of the third inning. As a result, from the top of the fourth until the top of the ninth, when Alexi Ogando came in to record the save, Texas for the first time fielded a line-up containing NO players from the Rangers' 2011 World Series team.
The Friday/Saturday Sundry: 4/11/14
The Rangers' minor league teams uniformly got off to slow starts but Thursday's games saw all four full-season teams secure wins, the first time all four have won in the same day. Even then, there was good and bad news. On the good side, last year's first-round pick, second baseman Travis Demeritte, cranked his second and third home runs of the season for the Hickory Crawdads. Hickory entered the game hitting in the .180's as a team but managed to improve their BA to above the Mendoza line with nine hits overall, including Demeritte's two dingers. Also on the good side was Myrtle Beach's third baseman Joey Gallo. At 19, Gallo is among the top power hitters in all the minors. After a slow start at the plate, yesterday Gallo unleashed a 4 for 4 day for the Pelicans including a double and his first two High-A home runs. If Gallo can cut down on his strikeouts, he could be a major league presence for years to come.
The negative side of the ledger came from the pitching staffs. Luke Jackson, one of the Rangers' top pitching prospects, had a bad game, giving up seven runs in only 3 1/3 innings for the AA Frisco RoughRiders. Even more troublesome was the performance by Cody Buckel of Myrtle Beach. Just a year ago, Buckel was not only one of the Rangers' top pitching prospects, he also made his first appearance in the big-league camp in Spring Training. All of a sudden, Buckel picked up a case of what they call the "yips". Suddenly, he lost all command on his pitches. In the minors, Buckel exhibited great control. Now he was walking batters, hitting batters and struggling to find the strike zone. He got shut down in AA after several ineffective starts. He popped up late in the season in the Arizona Summer League but got shut down again after things didn't get any better.
This spring, Buckel was back and, while he was a bit on the wild side, he did seem to have improved his command. Buckel had worked with pitching coaches and sports psychologists and looked like he was on the road back. Texas started him at High-A Myrtle Beach this year. His first start showed the strides he had made when he allowed only one hit and no runs in four innings of work. Yes, he walk four in four innings but insiders said he had command of some of his pitches.
In his second start, though, it was like none of the improvements had ever happened. After getting the first two outs with relative ease, Buckel walked the next four batters to plate a run before getting a groundout to end the first. When he opened the second inning by walking the first two batters then hit the third to load the bases, Buckel's night ended. One inning, one run, six walks, a hit batter and no strikeouts. I've rooted for Buckel to come back. They say his stuff is great. But something has happened to him and it's iffy whether he'll ever return to the prospect he once was.
The good news is Adrian Beltre has just a mild quad strain so he isn't expected to miss substantial time. The bad news is we still don't know if he'll be placed on the 15-day DL anyway. The Rangers plan to give Beltre the weekend before deciding what to do. The only thing we know is he won't play in the home series with the Astros this weekend. Expect Kevin Kouzmanoff as the Rangers' starting third baseman this weekend. Not placing Beltre on the DL this weekend means the long-awaited return of Colby Lewis won't happen for a few more days. Lewis was originally slated to start Saturday's game. With Beltre NOT on the DL, Lewis graciously agreed to push back his return to the Rangers until Monday or Tuesday (he had an out in his contract that would have allowed him to declare free agency if he wasn't on the Texas roster by Thursday 4/10). For a team already missing Jurickson Profar and Geovany Soto, losing a third starter, especially the likes of Beltre, would be a crippling blow. Here's hoping he'll be back in the line-up Monday when the Mariners come to town.
One of the biggest red flags after the first nine games is the Texas defense. It was expected there would be some weakening of the Rangers D in 2014. Prince Fielder isn't as good a defender at first as Mitch Moreland and Ian Kinsler was a pretty good defender at second when he was a Rangers player. What wasn't expected was Texas committing eleven errors in the first nine games, easily the worst mark in the major leagues. Even more shocking, six of those eleven errors have been by the most reliable defenders in a Rangers uniform, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. One of the three errors on each of them can partially be blamed on Fielder's inability to pick up a short-hop throw. The other two are strictly on them. Andrus in particular got shut down for the last couple of weeks in Spring Training with a sore arm. I think we're seeing the result of that layoff. As for Beltre, one of the best third basemen in the game, I hope this early showing isn't a sign of his reflexes starting to slow down at age 35. Only time will tell.
The Rangers begin a 10-game homestand this weekend against the Houston Astros. Texas was 17-2 against Houston a year ago. The Astros are a little improved, ie they could win 70 games this year instead of 60, so 17-2 might give way to 14-5 this year. Still, if Beltre is going to miss a series, this is the one he can most afford to miss. Texas has two of their most trustworthy pitchers, Yu Darvish and Martin Perez, going in the three game set, so winning at least two of the three is realistic.
MAJORS: Houston (4-6) at Texas (4-5)
AAA: Colorado Springs (Rockies 4-4) at Round Rock (RANGERS 5-3)
AA: Frisco (RANGERS 3-4) at NW Arkansas (Royals 2-5)
High-A: Myrtle Beach (RANGERS 3-4) at Wilmington (Royals 2-5)
Low-A: Asheville (Rockies 4-4) at Hickory (RANGERS 5-3)
Bad Moon Rising
Just when it looked like things were settling down for the Texas Rangers, Adrian Beltre shakes everything up again. As Michael Corleone famously said, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"
Everything was going swimmingly well for the Rangers Tuesday night. The offense was churning out hits and scoring runs at will against the Red Sox, even with a different type of line-up for Ron Washington. Michael Choice got the start in center field, leaving Leonys Martin on the bench. Mitch Moreland also got the night off against the left-hander. Wash had both ends of the second base platoon, Josh Wilson and Donnie Murphy, in the game and had Beltre occupy Moreland's DH slot. So of course, on a night when he doesn't have to play the field to save wear and tear on his body, one of Adrian's quads tightens up and he pulled himself from the game in the fifth inning. Beltre won't play today's finale, either. He's already jetted back to Texas to get examined by the Rangers' team doctor.
I'd love to say this is a precautionary measure and Beltre will be back in the line-up Friday night when the Astros come to town. After all, he's dealt with bad hamstrings the last two seasons and stayed on the field. Going back further, you'd be hard-pressed to find somebody tougher than Beltre, as described in a pre-season article on ESPN.com:
Years before Beltre headed north, Welke discovered how tough the slugger could be when he visited him in the Dominican Republic shortly after an offseason gone awry prior to the 2001 campaign.
"His appendix burst and he nearly died," Welke said.
The wound from the surgery done in the Dominican Republic also didn't heal properly. He had to have a second surgery during spring training that year to close it, and he lost about 30 pounds. Yet he was determined to return to the field as soon as possible.
"He tried to play games with a colostomy bag attached to him under his uniform," Welke said. "Can you imagine? That's how badly the guy wanted to play."
That's what makes this early departure troublesome. Maybe it is just one of those, "We're just two weeks into the season, let's make sure he's ready for everything to come" type of deals. The pessimistic me says, "Nope. This is something more." After all, Adrian Beltre wants to play baseball. He loves to play baseball. If Wash schedules him for a day off, the odds are better than 50-50 Adrian will talk him out of it and he'll play. This time, however, he pulled himself from the line-up in the middle of the game and apparently agreed pretty quickly to go get it checked out in Texas. That tells me this is something Adrian is REALLY worried about.
If Beltre goes on the DL, there are no really good options for Texas. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a good spring and could be brought up to replace him but face it: Nobody can replace Beltre's defense on the field and not many can provide his offense either. A Kouzmanoff MIGHT prove adequate for a 15-day DL stint but not much more than that. Without Beltre, there's not a lot of protection for Prince Fielder in the line-up. I can see Alex Rios moving from fifth to fourth and that will help somewhat. It will also make the bottom half of the Rangers order even weaker.
Texas pitching is on a three-week trajectory to settling down. Colby Lewis returns Saturday, Matt Harrison is about three weeks away from a return himself. The last thing the Rangers need is troubles on the offense (and defense). Losing Adrian Beltre for any amount of time could be disastrous for the Rangers chances in 2014.
Roster Projections 3/25/14
Jurickson Profar: Out 10-12 Weeks
Geovany Soto: Out 10-12 Weeks
The Rangers' injury woes have mounted, but at least we can hold on to this: If anyone was going to miss 10-12 weeks, from an offensive perspective, Profar and Soto were probably two of the LEAST important cogs in the line-up. Not to say the line-up won't miss them, but compared to Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Alex Rios and Shin-Soo Choo, it's a hit that's tolerable to the Rangers..
Still, these events open roster spaces and, with only six days to go before the Rangers have a date with the Philadelphia Phillies and Cliff Lee on March 31st, the thought of what the Rangers' roster will look like (come Monday (it'll be all right) (Thanks Jimmy Buffett) becomes an interesting exercise.
Here's what we know with certainty on offense because they aren't injured in any way, shape or form as I write this:
Prince Fielder
Adrian Beltre
JP Arencibia
Alex Rios
Here's what is highly probable, as in they have reported injuries but it isn't expected to put them on the DL to start the season:
Shin-Soo Choo
That's only nine players. The Rangers still need a back-up catcher, another outfielder, a starting second baseman and a utility infielder. I suspect Robinson Chirinos will be the second catcher. He's been excellent in camp and deserves a roster spot. Since Moreland has gotten some reps in left field, I think the Rangers are leaning towards him as the fifth outfielder at this point, meaning Texas really needs a starting second baseman and TWO utility infielders. Kevin Kouzmanoff has had a good spring as well and likely will get one of those spots to provide a third base back-up for Beltre. Now the question is, will Texas go for a platoon at second base while Profar is out? The candidates thus far are Brent Lillibridge, Josh Wilson, Adam Rosales and Kesuke Tanaka. Of these, I think one stays, either Wilson or Rosales. As for the last offensive roster slot? I'm betting on someone who is among the last cuts in someone else's training camp or gets obtained in a minor trade before Opening Day. That's how the Rangers got Matt Treanor in 2010 and Andres Blanco in 2011.
Thus, the Opening Day offense is:
1B: Fielder
2B: Wilson or Rosales
SS: Andrus
3B: Beltre
C: Arencibia
LF: Choo
CF: Martin
RF: Rios
DH: Moreland
Bench: Chirinos, Kouzmanoff, Choice, Mystery Infielder
For the pitching staff, Texas has a starting rotation in flux. Matt Harrison isn't ready to help at season's start. The back-end of the rotation is still unsettled. Let's start by looking at health again. Here are the definite roster members who have no reported health issues:
The only one with a potential health issue that's a lock is Yu Darvish, who's officially ruled out to pitch Opening Day. That's seven pitchers, leaving another five slots open. The following are in the mix for roster spots: Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, Neftali Feliz, Michael Kirkman, Pedro Figueroa, Rafael Perez and Shawn Tolleson. For this exercise, I'm going to assume Robbie Ross will be in the rotation, leaving one open starter position and four bullpen slots.
I want Colby Lewis in the Rangers rotation. I just don't know if he's ready yet, having gone through hip replacement surgery. Lewis is the talk of the camp and I think he'll help Texas in 2014, but I think it best if he starts the season at AAA Round Rock. By default, that would hand the fifth starter spot to Hanson or Saunders. Neither one excites me. I'll go with Saunders only because the DFW media seem to feel Hanson would work better than Saunders in the long reliever/spot starter role.
In the bullpen, it has already been established Soria is the closer and Ogando will set him up in the 8th. Frasor and Cotts are there for the seventh inning. Assuming Hanson is the long man, that leaves two slots open. Neftali Feliz has disappointed Rangers brass with his lack of velocity as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. I think he starts the season in AAA. Michael Kirkman is out of options but I don't think the Rangers see any future for him with the club, either. He might be a trade piece for the extra infielder the Rangers need. I think Tolleson and Figueroa will be the last two pieces added to the pen. Thus we have a pitching staff that looks like this:
More moves still could be on the horizon between now and Monday that throw these predictions all out of whack. For the short-term, I hope this roster will be okay because for a pennant run, there's still a lot of help needed.
QUICK NOTE: Every year, the C70 At The Bat blog, part of Cardsconclave.com, does a "Playing Pepper" feature looking at the other MLB teams. Today is Texas Rangers Day and some of my comments, along with a half dozen other Rangers bloggers are there. Make sure you give it a read!
Who Are These Guys? -or- Can You Identify That Strange Odor?
Adam Rosales and Josh Wilson your Opening Day middle infield? Doesn't exactly strike fear into the heart of the AL West, does it?
That's a possibility for the Rangers come Opening Day against the Phillies on March 31st. We know for a fact Jurickson Profar won't man second base for the first game, or the second, probably not for the first 81 games. Profar got diagnosed with a torn muscle in his shoulder and will miss 10-12 weeks.
Meanwhile his middle infield partner, Elvis Andrus, is still experiencing soreness on his throwing arm. He is currently DH-ing and isn't supposed to throw until this weekend's final exhibition games in San Antonio, cutting the margin extremely close for the opener.
The Opening Day starter, Yu Darvish, got scratched from his last start because of a sore neck. He insisted it wasn't an issue but the word out of Rangers camp Sunday made it sound like it hasn't cleared up as much as he'd like.
Who will start Opening Day? For sure not Profar. Maybe not Andrus. Maybe not Mitch Moreland, still getting over and oblique strain. Maybe not Darvish. Maybe not Shin-Soo Choo, who still has left elbow soreness. Maybe not Geovany Soto, who got pulled in the first inning of Sunday's exhibition when his leg locked up.
Let's make matters even worse, shall we? The Rangers announced Friday Tanner Scheppers had earned a spot in the rotation and Joakim Soria will be the closer, making it a four-way battle for the last two rotation spots between Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, Colby Lewis and Robbie Ross. So what happens? Hanson starts on Saturday and gives up 7 runs in 5.2 innings. Advantage Saunders, right? Wrong! Saunders started Sunday and couldn't even make it through two innings, giving up 9 runs in an inning and a third. Ross has pitched well enough to earn a rotation slot. I've always loved Colby Lewis but this is a guy coming off a hip replacement whose last two starts have come in minor league games. That makes the starting rotation Proven Commodity with a sore neck (Darvish), Second Year Starter who may or may not have a sophomore slump (Martin Perez), Former Reliever (Scheppers), Former Reliever (Ross) and Hip Replacement Guy (Lewis). One of them will get replaced in a few weeks by Missed All But Two Starts Last Year Guy (Matt Harrison). So there's no concern about the starting rotation, right?
You sense a trend here? Opening Day for the first time in five seasons is filling me with dread. The optimism just isn't there now. The Rangers have a lot of depth in the minor league system but there's not much there now at the big league level. That's why we have a possible starting middle infield of Adam Rosales and Josh Wilson.
A national beat writer wrote last night the Rangers wouldn't miss a beat at second base if they start rookie Rougned Odor while Profar is on the mend. Odor is one of the Rangers top prospects, a player Rangers minor league analyst Scott Lucas says just has "that look" about him. Maybe so but he also has only 134 at bats at the Double A level. Is he ready for that big a leap? And if he succeeds, what then? Now there's another logjam in the middle infield with three quality players for two positions.
I'm not totally against the idea of Odor playing at the big league level. He may already offer more than Rosales or Brent Lillibridge over the next three months. Or he could flame out spectacularly, which is why someone like Rosales or Lillibridge could be the stopgap measure. We know they won't add much, but as veterans, their output is more of a known commodity. Also to be considered is if Odor hits the big stage, that accelerates his free agency timetable by at least a year. Is the front office willing to risk that year right now?
Only a week to go before Opening Day and there are still a lot of decisions to be made.


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Although Pedro is a little jealous he's not on the cover of Blood Vine, he'd like to invite you to come back tomorrow for the unveiling. That's right–cover reveal tomorrow via the fabulous Laura Kaye's Blog, and an exciting book trailer featuring the music of Kitka on Friday! With Christmas around the corner, I know the Jan 8th release date will be here before I know it and I can hardly wait!
Today is the third installment in this month's Wine on Wednesday series, where I ask the characters from Blood Vine to introduce themselves and tell you about their favorite wines. We've already met our hero Andre Maras and our heroine Zoey Porter. Today we meet Pedro Torres, who pretty much steals the show, and has his own sexy romance with next week's featured guest, Lucas Bennett.
How old are you? Thirty-seven.
Where were you born? The Ribera Del Duero winemaking region of Spain.
What are your hobbies? I enjoy clubbing in San Francisco. At home in Sonoma County, shit-talking with my boss Andre is my full-time hobby.
What is your favorite wine? I know I'm tooting my own horn when I say it, but honestly, my favorite wines are the ones we make—our estate Zinfandels. They're frickin' perfect. I don't know how Andre got so lucky with the vines and the climate, but the fruit is unbelievable, and he's like some kind of wine alchemist. Too bad too, because he can't even drink the stuff. Don't ask. It's not my place to explain.
We only produce a few thousand cases, and our wine sells okay, given what a crap job we do of marketing it. I'm pretty sure this lame-ass label speaks for itself. So when Andre told me he was finally ready to hire a P.R. firm, I found one for him right away. Soon some Zoey Porter lady will be here and she'll set Andre straight about how to sell our wine.
But, to be a good sport, I'll pick another favorite, the fabulous Pinot Noirs made by our neighbor Gary Farrell. Totally different from our Zins, but damn good too.

subset: commoncrawl


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I have a houseful of adolescents who have come to visit their grandmother at the beach. Sitting in a ring in the sand, I asked them what were the rules they felt parents should know about how to talk to their teenagers. Here are some of the things they said:
Firstly, don't talk first but listen. Listen as carefully as you can and don't jump to any conclusions immediately. Let your adolescent have his/her say.
Secondly, don't preach. Don't begin a sentence with "When I was your age" I had to walk all the way to school, or I had to do such and such chores. Don't set yourself up as a paragon of virtue even if you were, which is unlikely.
Thirdly, rather lead by example. Practice what you would like to preach. Show the way by your own exemplary behavior and hope that you will eventually be emulated.
Fourthly, remember just how aggravating you found your own parents when you were that age and try not to be offended or hurt. Don't take casual remarks too seriously.
Fifthly, show an interest in the interests of your teenager even if it is difficult. Listen to the music which may have no melody or words you can hardly understand. Go to the soccer games, or whatever sporting events your teenager enjoys. Remember that the world has changed, that our modern world is changing rapidly and that taste is the most variable of all.
Six, demand a modicum of respect. Make certain rules and regulations and make sure they are kept. Make clear and simple rules and expect that they should be carried out. No name calling for example.
Seven: Aim high for your teenager. Never condescend but talk to him/her as an adult and treat the teenager with the respect you expect from him.
Eight: Try to establish times to talk: around the table is, of course, excellent. Talk about what is happening in the world, what is going on around us today, and respect your teenager's opinions which may be different from your own.
Nine: Remember that you will fail and fail again but if you have a clear idea of what to expect and what you are willing to give, at least the path forward will be clearer.
Sheila Kohler is the author of many books including the recent Dreaming for Freud.


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Popular "Science" Shuts Down Comments
Popular Science is shutting down comments. Why? Well I guess because robust debate can be bad for science:
A politically motivated, decades-long war on expertise has eroded the popular consensus on a wide variety of scientifically validated topics. Everything, from evolution to the origins of climate change, is mistakenly up for grabs again. Scientific certainty is just another thing for two people to "debate" on television. And because comments sections tend to be a grotesque reflection of the media culture surrounding them, the cynical work of undermining bedrock scientific doctrine is now being done beneath our own stories, within a website devoted to championing science.
Go here to read the rest. This is too funny. Science began as a search for truth. Now, in the era of politicized junk science, "scientists" too often are guardians of an orthodoxy that brooks no dissent. This is not science but rather scientism, and has as much to do with true science as the National Catholic Reporter has to do with Catholicism. The closing of the liberal mind proceeds apace.
Update: There is speculation about that the reason for the shutting off of comments was due to the fact that Popular Science is very much a proponent of Global Warming is coming, Global Warming is coming !, and that they got tired of dealing with critics. Considering what happened to Global Warming "activist" David Suzuki at a public forum recently in Sydney, I can understand their trepidation:
BILL KOUTALIANOS: Oh, hi. Since 1998 global temperatures have been relatively flat, yet many man-made global warming advocates refuse to acknowledge this simple fact. Has man-made global warming become a new religion in itself?
DAVID SUZUKI: Yeah, well, I don't know why you're saying that. The ten hottest years on record, as I understand it, have been in this century. In fact, the warming continues. It may have slowed down but the warming continues and everybody is anticipating some kind of revelation in the next IPCC reports that are saying we got it wrong. As far as I understand, we haven't. So where are you getting your information? I'm not a climatologist. I wait for the climatologists to tell us what they're thinking.
TONY JONES: Do you want to respond to that, Bill?
BILL KOUTALIANOS: Sure, yeah. UAH, RSS, HadCRUT, GISS data shows a 17-year flat trend which suggests there may be something wrong with the Co2 warming theory?
DAVID SUZUKI: Sorry, yeah, what is the reference? I don't…
BILL KOUTALIANOS: Well, they're the main data sets that IPCC use: UAH, University of Alabama, Huntsville; GISS, Goddard Institute of Science; HadCRUT. I don't know what that stands for, HadCRUT; and RSS, Remote Sensing something. So those data sets suggest a 17-year flat trend, which suggests there may be a problem with the Co2.
DAVID SUZUKI: No, well, there may be a climate sceptic down in Huntsville, Alabama, who has taken the data and come to that conclusion. I say, let's wait for the IPCC report to come out and see what the vast bulk of scientists who have been involved in gathering this information will tell us.
11 Responses to Popular "Science" Shuts Down Comments
I made the first comment on the story below, and was responded to in various ways, mostly just ad hominem attacks, but when I tried to respond back to these comments of others, I was unable to because I was censored off the site.
Hm, someone should ask them what they think of Galileo. See how long it takes them to realize the hypocrisy.
Every scientific theory is one experiment away from obsolescence.
More astounding is the credentialed imbeciles' utter lack of self-awareness. They're not searching after truth, but building the agenda.
Their "scientific certainty" is ideology.
They unwittingly take whole chapters out of the playbook of the Medieval Inquisition, sans enhanced interrogation techniques.
Meanwhile, the Obama regime is acclerating the US crash-dive into bankruptcy by executive order – dismantling coal-generated electricity capacity.
I deal with these people all the time. They are invariably liberal progressive Democrats and they have dominated nuclear energy forums. They are die-hard materialists, and tolerate absolutely no dissent from their creed of atheistic evolution, global warming, etc. They denigrate anyone who has religious faith – and openly and without apology – and they think that just because they are smart, they know everything and are godlike in intellect. They disregard that most scientists who created this edifice of science on which they stand were themselves Christian. Invariably they are shocked to learn Roman Catholic Belgium priest Father Georges Lemaitre came up with the idea of the Big Bang as a consequence of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, or all the other scientists who were Christian (e.g., Louis Pasteur, etc.). They refuse to read anything that bona fide modern scientists like Dr. Hugh Ross (a Protestant) or Dr. Stephen M. Barr (a Roman Catholic) have to say (read Dr. Barr's book, "Modern Physics and Ancient Faith" – it is freaking GREAT!). When they are told that Pope Pius XII dealt very intelligently with the Theory of Evolution in his encyclical "Humani Generis", or Pope John Paul II discussed the unity of truth in reason and faith within his encyclical "Fides et Ratio", they shut down and refuse to read those too. They are so "open minded" that anything which opposes their preconceived world views they discount as the myth of a sky god. They don't even want to hear what and who Yahweh is – the creator of the sky, the one who is outside of space and time, matter and energy. They are the most obnoxious, intolerant, divisive, inconsiderate, and unkind group of people you would ever encounter.
BTW, everyone should have the links on science below as internet favorites – one is Catholic and the other is Protestant. And everyone should educate himself in science. We shouldn't let ourselves be bamboozled by these liberal materialist miscreants. As St. Peter wrote, we should ever be ready to give a defense of the faith that is within us. And one last thing: every Catholic should read "Humani Generis" (I taught an apologetics class on it one time) and "Fides et Ratio" – they are on the Vatican web site. There are no excuses for being ignorant any longer.
Magis Center or Reason and Faith with Father Robert J. Spitzer
Reasons to Believe with Dr. Hugh Ross
If only the US Bishops had such righteous indignation over the Deposit of the Faith!
You would think these scientism freaks have suddenly found religion by suspiciously adopting their own doctrine of infallibility.
Pingback: THURSDAY MORNING EDITION | God & Caesar
Popular Science? You mean it's still around?
Popular Science? You mean it's still around?
How much longer until the 100th anniversary of Pop Sci's prediction of the flying car?
Science, falsely so-called, provides only confusion when used in politics and the courts to push an agenda. For instance, many people think there is such a thing as marriage between humans who share the same sexual apparatus, when it is impossible for marriage and offspring to occur when two of the same gender attempt to couple together. When grown men and women fight over whether there is such a thing as "Gay Marriage," it confuses children who need to have guidance in these matters that is simple and straightforward, and certainly not a matter to be argued about. Some of the gravest scandals have been perpetrated by the scientific community. And openly discussing matters with children present that should be left to academics behind closed doors is an example of this.


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|09.10.2013 - EU can keep airline carbon plan using UN credits, IETA says
|Europe may need to let airlines use United Nations credits to meet pollution caps after countries spurned the blocs plan to apply its carbon market to overseas flights, according to the biggest emissions trading lobby group. Theres an opening for the European Union to negotiate with other countries on airlines compliance with its greenhouse-gas limits, said Dirk Forrister, the president of the International Emission Trading Association in Geneva. One option is to allow flights from developing nations to use credits created from UN-overseen projects to reduce emissions, he said..............................................Full Article: Source


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The "amount of lateral faces"? Do you mean the number of such faces rather than the area? Of course, you cannot find the area without knowing the size so I will assume you just mean the number. An "octagonal pyramid" has an octagon as base and edges rising from each vertex of the octagon to a single vertex above the base. It has exactly 8 lateral faces. It has 9 vertices and 16 edges.
Note that counting the base, the octagon has f= 9 faces, e= 16 edges, and v= 9 vertices. f- e+ v= 9- 16+ 9= 2, the "Euler characteristic" for all simple three dimensional solids.
I'll leave "rectangular prism" to you. Just find a rectangular box and count!


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SALT LAKE CITY - A company is signaling its intent to turn a rural Texas county near the New Mexico state line into the home of the only dump in the United States capable of disposing of all classes of low-level radioactive waste from around the country.
South Carolina shut its doors to nearly all of the nation's low-level radioactive waste in July, leaving 36 states with no place to dispose of certain waste from nuclear power plants, hospitals, universities and research labs.
Dallas-based Waste Control Specialists LLC received a license from state regulators this year to begin accepting U.S. Department of Energy waste from around the country and commercial waste from Texas and Vermont at its facility in west Texas.
But the company wrote in an April 6 letter to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that it wants to dispose of commercial waste from other states too. The letter was sent in advance of an NRC public hearing on low-level radioactive waste being held Friday.
"We believe flexible import provisions would go very far toward resolving the nation's challenges ... now that the Barnwell (S.C.) facility no longer allows nationwide access for disposal of these wastes," wrote William Dornsife, the company's executive vice president for licensing and regulatory affairs.
Company spokesman Chuck McDonald said accepting waste from outside the two-state compact would make operating the compact more affordable for Texas and Vermont and make the rest of the country safer.
Since the 1980s, the federal government has urged states to build low-level nuclear waste landfills, either on their own or in cooperation with other states in compact systems.
But only one low-level landfill, in Utah, has opened in the past 30 years.
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Kate, Kate, Kate. Just when I thought Kate Reed's life couldn't get more complicated, in "Kiss Me Kate" she found a way to make more of a mess of it.
After the kiss between Kate and Ben on last week's Fairly Legal, Kate was obviously reeling and Ben was seriously smitten.
I wasn't sure about Ben at the start of this season but that besotted look on his face was damn cute. His whole face lit up when Kate agreed to their date.
Unfortunately Kate Reed couldn't simply go to dinner with a guy who liked her. Her mind was in overdrive and fear drove her to make a bad decision as she literally jumped into bed with Justin.
Two weeks ago I was still rooting for a reconciliation between Justin and Kate. I looked forward to them talking about what killed their marriage and why Justin had a one night stand. I'd hoped maybe they could find their way back to one another. Read More...


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Another year, another early exit for the Denver Nuggets from the playoffs. However, despite finishing with a similar result in the majority of the seasons over the last decade, there are considerable bright spots for the Nuggets moving forward.
The last two seasons have been marred by inconsistency and drama that have put the new-look Nuggets behind the eight ball in terms of consistency, unity and fluidity.
In 2010-11 there was Melo-drama that started at the beginning of the season as the former Nuggets star raked management and his teammates through the coals on his way to forcing a trade with the only team he would allow, the New York Knicks.
In this case, the team of Ujiri and Kroenke reacted masterfully, patiently waiting for the Knicks to cave to their high demands to obtain the pieces they wanted in return. Landing a package of Gallinari, Chandler, Mozgov, Felton, Brewer and Koufas, plus three picks was genius, as each of these players has either been a significant contributor for the Nuggets over the past two seasons or has been flipped for one.
Since that time, due to the lockout, the current roster of the Nuggets has had little time to work together, leading to inconsistencies. But some of the pieces are in place for a legitimate roster to take the court next season.
However, these five offseason considerations are vital towards building for the future.


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Nordin, James D. MD, MPH; Kharbanda, Elyse Olshen MD, MPH; Benitez, Gabriela Vazquez PhD; Nichol, Kristin MD, MPH, MBA; Lipkind, Heather MD, MPH; Naleway, Allison PhD; Lee, Grace M. MD, MPH; Hambidge, Simon MD, PhD; Shi, Wei MPH; Olsen, Avalow BS
HealthPartners Institute for Education and Research, and Minneapolis VA Health Care System and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota; the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; Northwest Kaiser Permanente, Portland, Oregon; the Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; and Kaiser Permanente Institute for Health Research, and Denver Health Community Health Services, Denver, Colorado.
Corresponding author: James D. Nordin, MD, MPH, HealthPartners Institute for Education and Research, PO Box 1524, MS 21111R, Minneapolis, MN 55425; email: firstname.lastname@example.com.
Supported by a subcontract with America's Health Insurance Plans under contract 200-2002-00732 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The authors thank Beth Molitor, MBA, Leslie Kuckler, MPH, Rachel Gold, PhD, MPH, Karen Riedlinger, MPH, and Samantha Kurosky, MPH, for their assistance with data collection, and Mary VanBeusekom for her assistance in editing the manuscript.
Financial Disclosure Dr. Nichol has served on medical advisory boards for influenza vaccine manufacturers, including MedImmune, Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, and Novartis. Dr. Naleway has received research funding from GlaxoSmithKline. The other authors did not report any potential conflicts of interest.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risks for medically attended events occurring within 42 days of receiving trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and to evaluate specific risks of first-trimester vaccination.
METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study compared rates of medically attended adverse events in trivalent inactivated influenza-vaccinated and unvaccinated pregnant women in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Using a Poisson distribution and log link, we calculated maternal adjusted incident rate ratios for composite safety outcomes for the full cohort and the subset vaccinated during the first trimester.
RESULTS: The cohort included 75,906 vaccinated (28.4% in the first trimester) and 147,992 unvaccinated women matched by age, site, and pregnancy start date. In the first 3 days after vaccination, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was not associated with increased risk of specified medically attended events, including allergic reactions, cellulitis, and seizures (full cohort adjusted incident rate ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81–1.55; P=.48; first-trimester adjusted incident rate ratio .97, 95% CI 0.53–1.78; P=.93). In the first 42 days, no incident cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, optic neuritis, transverse myelitis, or Bells palsy were identified. Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was not associated with thrombocytopenia (full cohort adjusted incident rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.68--1.19; P=.45; first-trimester adjusted incident rate ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.22–1.39; P=.21) or an acute neurologic event (full cohort adjusted incident rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.54–1.6; P=.75; first-trimester adjusted incident rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.46–2.38; P=.91).
CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during pregnancy was not associated with increased risk of adverse events in the 42 days after vaccination, supporting its safety for the mother.
Pregnant women are at increased risk for serious complications from influenza.1,2 The increased burden of influenza during pregnancy was pronounced during the H1N1 pandemic;3–5 however, even in nonpandemic seasons, pregnant women are more likely than nonpregnant women to have an influenza-related hospitalization.1 Influenza infection during pregnancy also can adversely affect fetal growth and is a risk for preterm delivery.6,7 When administered during pregnancy, the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine can prevent these adverse outcomes for expectant mothers and their fetuses.8–10
Since 1997, the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine has been recommended for otherwise healthy women in their second or third trimester of pregnancy. In 2004, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices changed its recommendations to include women in any stage of pregnancy.11 These recommendations have been strongly endorsed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.12 However, concerns regarding vaccine safety during pregnancy remain a persistent barrier to vaccination.13,14 Data from clinical trials,9,15,16 passive surveillance,17 and observational studies18 have not suggested any associations between the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and maternal or fetal adverse events. However, previous studies have been underpowered to detect rare outcomes, and no previous studies have adequately assessed the safety of first-trimester vaccination.19
Using a large, geographically diverse, retrospective cohort of pregnant women, the goals of this study were to estimate the risks for medically attended events occurring within 42 days of receiving trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and to evaluate specific risks of first-trimester vaccination.
In this retrospective observational cohort study, we compared rates of medically attended adverse events in pregnant women vaccinated with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and unvaccinated pregnant women in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. The Vaccine Safety Datalink is a collaborative effort between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Immunization Safety Office and 10 health care systems across the United States. It includes data for 9.5 million individuals, comprising 3% of the United States population.20 The current study is first large cohort study of vaccine safety during pregnancy for the Vaccine Safety Datalink.21
Seven Vaccine Safety Datalink sites (Group Health Cooperative, HealthPartners, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, and Marshfield Clinic Research Foundation) contributed data for this study. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Boards of all involved sites. All data were derived from claims and electronic medical records from the health care organizations. Pregnant women enrolled at those sites were identified using a previously validated algorithm developed by Hornbrook et al22 and data were adapted for use in the Vaccine Safety Datalink by Naleway et al.23 The algorithm uses a hierarchical approach to identify pregnancy episodes, pregnancy outcomes (live births, still births, spontaneous abortions, therapeutic abortions, ectopic pregnancies, and gestational trophoblastic disease), and gestational age at pregnancy outcome. The algorithm calculates a pregnancy start date equivalent to the estimated last menstrual period. The first trimester was defined as less than 14 weeks of gestation, the second trimester was defined as 14 to less than 28 weeks, and the third trimester was defined as 28 weeks or more of gestation. In a recent validation of this algorithm, 99% of live births were confirmed to occur within 30 days of the algorithm-defined dates, and there was 98% agreement in gestational age between the algorithm and manual chart review.23 Additional strategies used in this algorithm to assign gestational age in weeks based on the timing of common prenatal procedures have been previously described.21
Women were retained in the cohort if they had continuous insurance enrollment with no more than a 30-day administrative enrollment gap from 6 months before the start of pregnancy until 2 months after the end of pregnancy. The following pregnancies were excluded: multiple gestation pregnancies; ectopic pregnancies; gestational trophoblastic disease; therapeutic abortions; and pregnancies in which the outcome could not be determined based on available data. In addition, women with no medical encounters during pregnancy were excluded (Appendix 1, available online at http://links.lww.com/AOG/A348).
Receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was identified from the Vaccine Safety Datalink vaccine files. The data sources for these files vary slightly across sites but generally include vaccines captured through claims and site-based vaccine registries. Data of workplace or pharmacy vaccination were available only when manually entered by a health care provider, on the basis of patient report. Exclusions included women receiving trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine within 2 weeks of their estimated pregnancy start (because of some uncertainty regarding dates). To avoid including vaccines administered postpartum, women vaccinated within 1 week of their pregnancy end date also were excluded. In addition, women receiving other vaccines during pregnancy were excluded.
After applying these inclusion and exclusion criteria, all pregnant women 14 through 49 years old retained in the cohort who received trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during the 2002–2003 through the 2008–2009 influenza seasons were matched 1:2 with replacement to unvaccinated women using a variable optimal matching algorithm.24 The original algorithm was modified so that matched vaccinated and unvaccinated women would be equally likely to be vaccinated during the same risk window. Match variables included age at pregnancy outcome (±1 year), estimated pregnancy start date (±30 days), and Vaccine Safety Datalink site. Unexposed women were assigned an index date equal to the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--exposed woman's gestational age at vaccination.
Adverse events were identified from International Classification of Diseases 9th Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes from inpatient, outpatient, or emergency department visits. Events on the day of vaccination (day 0) were included only if diagnosed at an inpatient or emergency department visit. Specific outcomes and windows were selected a priori based on biologic plausibility and past Vaccine Safety Datalink research on influenza vaccine safety in nonpregnant populations.25–28 For the first 3 days after vaccination, outcomes included allergic reactions, cellulitis, fever or malaise, limb soreness or swelling, rash, seizures, and altered mental status.
For the first 42 days after vaccination, outcomes included autonomic disorders, cranial nerve disorders, degeneration of the central nervous system, demyelinating disease, peripheral neuropathy or neuritis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, meningoencephalitides, movement disorders, myoneural disorders, paralytic syndromes, psychoses, spinocerebellar disease, myocarditis or pericarditis, and thrombocytopenia. To improve specificity for Guillain-Barré syndrome, only inpatient diagnoses were included. Appendix 2 (http://links.lww.com/AOG/A349) provides a complete listing of outcomes and their specific ICD-9-CM codes. Outcomes were included only if they represented new events. Washout periods to exclude pre-existing conditions were applied, and they varied by outcome (Appendix 2, available online at http://links.lww.com/AOG/A349).
As previously described, vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts were matched by age, site, and estimated pregnancy start date. Data of additional covariates that may have differed between these cohorts also were gathered.14 Pre-existing conditions (diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, neurologic disease, and pulmonary disease) and pregnancy-related conditions (gestational diabetes, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia) were identified from automated claims data from 6 months before pregnancy through the date of vaccination or index date. Receipt of medical care during the first trimester and hospitalization before the vaccination or index date also were recorded. In the absence of socioeconomic variables at the individual level, we used geocode files to describe, for each participant, the percentage of families in their census tract whose income was less than 150% of the federal poverty level.29 In the absence of a geocode, data for poverty was imputed using the expectation maximization algorithm.30
We used χ2 and Mann-Whitney U tests to compare baseline characteristics in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (Tables 1). We report 0-day to 3-day and 1-day to 42-day rates for potential adverse events in our exposed and unexposed cohorts per 10,000 pregnancies. Crude associations between individual outcomes and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine were analyzed using exact χ2 tests.
Using the generalized estimating equation method to account for the matching effect, with a Poisson distribution and log link, we calculated maternal incident rate ratios for the following composite safety outcomes: any event occurring 0–3 days after vaccination (Table 2); any neurologic event occurring 1–42 days after vaccination; and thrombocytopenia (Table 3). Incident rate ratios were adjusted for receipt of medical care during the first trimester, hospitalization, and high-risk conditions before the vaccination or index date. Associations are presented as 0-day to 3-day or 1-day to 42-day adjusted incident rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Analyses were conducted for the entire cohort and for the subset of women vaccinated during the first trimester. In addition, we evaluated whether a cluster effect was present because of women with multiple pregnancies over the 7-year period or because of sampling controls with replacement. Results did not differ from our main analysis. Because the intraclass correlation was minimal for most models (<.001), and some models did not converge; these effects were ignored in the main analyses.31
Most of the acute safety outcomes undergoing investigation (groups of ICD-9-CM codes) were expected to have 42-day incident background rates of approximately 1 per 10,000 women.32 Analyses for these outcomes had 80% power to detect a difference of 0.05% or an adjusted incident rate ratio of 1.5 with an α of 0.05. All analyses were performed using SAS 9.2.
Across the seven participating sites, from 1 June 2002 through 31 July 2009, a total of 807,563 pregnancies among women aged 14 through 49 years were identified from administrative and claims data. After applying exclusions, 407,745 pregnancies remained; 19% received trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine while pregnant. Our final cohort consisted of 75,906 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--exposed pregnancies matched by age, Vaccine Safety Datalink site, and estimated pregnancy start date with 147,992 unvaccinated women (Appendix 1 [http://links.lww.com/AOG/A348] provides a detailed diagram of inclusions and exclusions.)
The mean age of our cohort was 30.8±5.6 years. Vaccination occurred in all three trimesters, including 21,553 women (28.4%) vaccinated during their first trimester, 33,553 (44.2%) vaccinated during their second trimester, and 20,800 (27.4%) vaccinated during their third trimester. Although most women received medical care in the first trimester, rates were slightly higher among vaccinated women (88.8% compared with 86.4%). Compared with the unexposed, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--exposed women were more likely to have a pre-existing condition (14.5% compared with 11.7%), but they were somewhat less likely to be hospitalized before their vaccination or index date (5.3% compared with 5.7%).
Rates for medically attended allergic reactions, skin infections, fever and malaise, rash, seizures, or altered mental status events 0–3 days after vaccination were low; none exceeded 2 per 10,000 among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated women. Compared with unvaccinated women, no increase was observed in the incidence of 0-day to 3-day events among vaccinated women (Table 1). In multivariable regression models, after accounting for the matching effect and adjusting for pre-existing conditions, receipt of care in the first trimester, and hospitalization before their vaccination or index date, in the first 3 days after vaccination, receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was not associated with having a medically attended event (adjusted incident rate ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.81–1.55; P=.48). Similarly, in a regression model restricted to first-trimester vaccinees and their unexposed matches, in the first 3 days after vaccination, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination was not associated with having a medically attended event (adjusted incident rate ratio 0.97, 95% CI 0.53–1.78; P=.93).
The most common safety outcome in the 42 days after vaccination or index date among both vaccinated and unvaccinated pregnant women was thrombocytopenia, which occurred at a rate of 10.4 per 10,000 vaccinees and 11.5 per 10,000 unexposed women. Among vaccinated women, there were no cases of Guillian-Barré syndrome, optic neuritis, Bells palsy, or transverse myelitis. For most other outcomes during the first 42 days, incident rates were less than 1 per 10,000 vaccinees or unexposed women. We found no evidence of increased risk in the 42 days after receiving the trivalent inactivated influenza for any prespecified neurologic outcome, myocarditis or pericarditis, or thrombocytopenia (Table 2). After accounting for the matching effect and adjusting for pre-existing conditions, receipt of care in the first trimester, and hospitalization before the vaccination or index date, in the first 42 days trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination was not associated with receiving a new diagnosis of thrombocytopenia (adjusted incident rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.68–1.19; P=.45) or an acute neurologic event (adjusted incident rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.54–1.56; P=.75) Similarly, in analyses restricted to women receiving trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during their first trimester and their unexposed matches, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination was not associated with a new episode of thrombocytopenia (adjusted incident rate ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.22–1.39; P=.21) or an acute neurologic event (adjusted incident rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.46–2.38; P=.91).
In this observational multisite study of 75,906 women who received trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during pregnancy, no increased risk for adverse events after vaccination was observed in the first 6 weeks after vaccination. In the United States, it is estimated that six million women become pregnant each year.33 Most are pregnant for at least a portion of the influenza season and therefore are strongly encouraged to be vaccinated. This study should reassure these women and their health care providers of the safety of influenza vaccination for the outcomes we studied.
Our study is unique because we report on a large geographically diverse cohort of women, including more than 20,000 women vaccinated during the first trimester. Thus, our findings greatly expand on previous observational studies by Deinard et al34 and Munoz et al.18 In 1981, Deinard et al studied 189 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--exposed and 517 unexposed pregnant women and found no differences in maternal, perinatal, or neonatal complications.34 More recently, in 2005, Munoz et al evaluated the safety of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine administered to 252 pregnant women during their second trimester or third trimester of pregnancy. When compared with 826 matched unvaccinated pregnant women, no increased risk for adverse events in the first 42 days after vaccination was observed. In addition, Munoz et al18 reported no difference in pregnancy or neonatal outcomes between the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine-exposed and unexposed women.
Our findings complement and expand on results recently reported from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Moro and colleagues reviewed the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System reports among pregnant women who received the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine from 1 July 1990 through 30 June 2009. In this 20-year period, only 148 adverse events after receiving the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in pregnancy were identified; 20 (13.5%) reports were classified as serious. No unusual patterns of pregnancy complications or fetal outcomes were observed. Three reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome in pregnant women who received the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine were noted in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System; two of these cases were confirmed by chart review.35 As a passive reporting system, these reports are from an unknown denominator of pregnant vaccinated women. Background rates of Guillain-Barré syndrome in women of reproductive age range from 1.5 to 2.3 per 100,000 person-years;32 risks for Guillain-Barré may increase up to threefold for women during the first 30 days postpartum.36 Although we were underpowered to detect differences in rates of Guillain-Barré syndrome between trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--exposed and unexposed women, it is reassuring that we had no incident cases in more than 76,000 vaccinated women.
Several limitations to this study should be noted. First, as with all observational studies, there was potential for confounding by indication. At baseline, vaccinated women were more likely to have a chronic medical condition such as asthma and diabetes, whereas unvaccinated women were slightly more likely to have been hospitalized during the baseline period. We were able to adjust for these baseline differences in our multivariable models. However, it is likely that, similar to nonpregnant populations, other unmeasured confounders differed between vaccinated and unvaccinated women.37
Second, data regarding whether women received the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine were from claims or electronic medical record--based registries. Women vaccinated at nonmedical sites may have been misclassified as unexposed, potentially biasing our results. In a recent survey, up to 13% of women receiving the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine while pregnant during the 2010–2011 influenza season did so at a pharmacy, other store, school, or workplace.38 Rates for women in our cohort to receive the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine at alternative sites were likely to be lower, but data about the site of vaccination among pregnant women for 2002–2009 is limited. Third, our choice of ICD-9-CM codes and outcomes were based on extensive previous research in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. However, these outcomes are still prone to misclassification because of errors in coding. Both of these limitations may have reduced our power to detect acute safety signals. In addition, we were able to assess only medically attended adverse events. Thus, our estimated rates for mild events such as malaise or limb soreness are probably underestimates of their true rates. Furthermore, despite the large size of our cohort, we had insufficient power to detect increased risks for rare events or to conduct subgroup analyses by year or vaccine manufacturer.
In this large observational cohort study, receipt of the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during pregnancy was not associated with increased risk of medically attended acute adverse events in the 6 weeks after immunization. These findings should reassure pregnant women and their health care providers that the seasonal influenza vaccination is unlikely to cause the complications included in our study.
This article has been cited 1 time(s).
© 2013 The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
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Honeysuckle (Lonicera morrowii) also called Morrow's Honeysuckle
From all-creatures.org
Art and Photo Journals
and Galleries Directory
Dedicated to the Preservation and Restoration of the Whole of Creation
Humans - Animals - Environment
"And God saw all that He had made, and behold, it was very good. And there was evening and there was morning, the sixth day" (Genesis 1:31)
Flowering Trees, Bushes and Shrubs of Sleepy Hollow Lake
Morrow Honeysuckle (Lonicera morrowii) also called Morrow's Honeysuckle
(Honeysuckle, Morrow - 11a) In this close up photo of the terminal end (right side of photo) of the morrow honeysuckle branch, we can see the green sprout (partly hidden under a leaf) of the new growth of the branch and leaves.
| Honeysuckle, Morrow | Flowering Trees, Bushes and Shrubs of SHL | Art and Photos |
Presented here are just a few of the countless components of God's creation. Just as we cannot have human and animal life without water and plants, neither can we have lasting peace without love and compassion. It is our hope and prayer that this series will motivate people to live and act in a cruelty-free manner; that we would no longer hurt or destroy each other, the animals or our environment.
Photos by Frank L. Hoffman unless otherwise noted.
If you would like to contribute a photo and/or comment to these series, please contact:
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© 2002-2007 - The Mary T. and Frank L. Hoffman Family Foundation. All rights reserved. May be copied only for personal use or by not for profit organizations to promote compassionate and responsible living. All copied and reprinted material must contain proper credits and web site link www.all-creatures.org
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The themes of these All Creatures Art and Photo Journals and Galleries Directory cover such subjects as - creation, earth, environment, ecology, plants, flowers, birds, trees, creature, animal, animals, fine arts, watercolor, painting, paintings, pic, pics, pictures, photos, vegetation, restoration, preservation, vegetarian, vegan, cruelty free, love, joy, peace, kindness, compassion, humor, poetry, quotations, lifestyle, Bible, recipes, sermons, stories, human, animal rights, God, Jesus, Christ, Lord, Holy Spirit, Jewish, Christian, Judeo Christian, health, ethical living, meditation, sleepy, hollow, lake, shrubs, bushes, Morrow Honeysuckle (Lonicera morrowii) also called Morrow's Honeysuckle