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The Danger of Getting Out of Stocks During Bear Markets
by Charles Rotblut, CFA
One of the biggest risks to investors' net worth is the portfolio decisions they make.
Failing to adhere to an appropriate long-term strategy has a significant damaging impact on wealth. Since wealth is generated from the compounding of returns, actions that severely reduce an investor's portfolio balance can have a long-term impact.
A common dangerous action is panicking and pulling out of stocks during a bear market. Such an action limits the immediate damage to a portfolio, but can cause an investor to miss out on the big rebound that follows a large drop by not jumping back into stocks soon enough. Even being out of the market for just one or two years can cause a considerable amount of wealth to be forfeited.
In this article
- Buying High and Selling Low
- Rebalancing: A Better Method
- Comparing Rebalancing to Panicking
- The Negative Wealth Impact of Panicking
- What If Your Timing Is Bad?
- Concluding Remarks
- Complete Data for All Portfolios and Variations
- Appendix
There are alternatives investors can follow that don't involve correctly forecasting market direction, something most people fail to do on a consistent basis. The first alternative is to simply leave their portfolios unchanged. The second is to periodically rebalance. Rebalancing both lessens the blow of bear markets and gives an investor something to do during a bear market. The latter can play an important psychological role, since having a plan of action may help an investor regain a sense of control.
In this article, I discuss the problem of panic-selling and show how the two alternatives to panicking compare against it terms of portfolio return and volatility. I also show why it makes sense to stick with stocks even if your timing is terrible and you get in near a market top.
Buying High and Selling Low
Reactions to turbulent and bear markets vary by investor. Some are unfazed by large drops in stock prices, and even view them as buying opportunities ("Buffett-like investors"). Others curtail their stock holdings when the market incurs a steep drop, but don't completely pull out of stocks ("nervous investors"). There also are many who get out of stocks completely during a bear market ("panic investors") out of fear of incurring further losses.
Given wide variances in how each investor reacts to bear markets—including both the timing and the duration of their major asset allocation decisions—I have yet to see data showing the proportion of investors that fall into each group. The aggregate data does imply, however, that Buffett-like investors are likely a comparatively small group. More people probably fall into the nervous and panic investor groups. This is not surprising, given the human inclination to be risk-averse. As Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated with "prospect theory," we feel the pain of losses much more than we derive pleasure from gains. Compounding matters, we humans commonly engage in hyperbolic discounting, which means we place greater value on rewards received sooner rather than later. When the market falls and stocks are sold, we see the immediate value of avoiding further losses. What isn't considered are the potential future gains forfeited by not continuing to stick with stocks or, better yet, by rebalancing and allocating more money into stocks.
The net result of this behavior is a buy high/sell low mentality. When the markets are rising strongly, investors are more likely to put money into stocks (buying high). When a steep market correction or a bear market occurs, investors move to sell their stocks (selling low). Then once the market has rebounded and recorded significant gains, investors notice the profits they are missing out on and they put money back into stocks (buying high). This cycle results in a process of locking in big losses and missing out on big gains.
The buy high/sell low mentality is caused by loss aversion. When stock prices are rising and we don't have a significant allocation to stocks, we feel the pain of missing out on market gains by not being allocated to stocks. When stock prices are dropping and we see our portfolios falling in value, we feel the pain of the lost financial net worth.
Aggregate data suggests this type of behavior is common. The Investment Company Institute's ICI tally of net new cash flows into mutual funds is a great example because it encompasses most mutual funds. Investors added $490 billion to equity mutual funds between 1988 and 1995. During the tech bubble years of 1996 through 2000, equity mutual fund flows swelled to a combined $1.1 trillion, more than double the total of the previous eight years combined. Inflows dropped to just $3.3 billion in 2001 and 2002, reflecting $29.6 billion of outflows in 2002. As the market rebounded and rising housing prices made investors feel wealthier, equity fund inflows jumped to $663 billion. Then the financial crisis occurred and investors pulled out a combined $536 billion from equity funds between 2008 and 2012. Inflows did not turn positive until last year, when the S&P 500 index gained 32.4% and investors put $161 billion into equity funds.
|Panic and Sell
|at 5%
|When S&P 500 Falls
|Portfolio Strategy
|> 20%
|Non-Withdrawal Portfolio
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
|Withdrawal Portfolio
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Total Withdrawals
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
Russell Investments looked at the ICI data and concluded that the "average equity investor underperformed the Russell 3000 index by 2.2% annually" during the 29-year period of 1984 to 2013. The firm's study was based on comparing inflows and outflows from equity funds to simply investing in their broad-based index.
It's not just the ICI's data that suggest investors harm themselves. Research firm DALBAR reported that in the 20 years it has been publishing its Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior QAIB report, the average investor has trailed the S&P 500 index by more than four percentage points on an annualized basis (5.02% versus 9.22%). In a press release about its 2014 QAIB report, the firm blamed "withdrawing from investments at low points and buying at market highs" for the shortfall.
Morningstar's investor-return statistics, which Christine Benz shared with me, also paint a picture of underperformance by investors. During the 10-year period ended September 30, 2013, the average investor underperformance gap was 1.47% for all funds (including stock, fixed-income, balanced, alternative and commodity). Investors underperformed domestic stock funds by an average of 1.27%, underperformed international equity funds by an average of 2.25% and underperformed taxable bond funds by an average of 1.52%.
Rebalancing: A Better Method
If panicking is a big problem, a strategy that helps an investor to maintain a constant exposure to stocks should logically produce benefits. While some may view the best advice as simply being "don't panic and stay allocated to stocks," such guidance only works well for Buffett-like investors. All other investors need a strategy that gives them a sense of control. This is where rebalancing comes into play.
Rebalancing is the process of adjusting your portfolio back to your targeted allocation. For example, say your allocation calls for a 70% allocation to stocks and a 30% allocation to bonds. After a bad year for equities, your portfolio's allocation changes to 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Rebalancing would prompt you to shift 10% of portfolio dollars out your bond holdings and into stocks, bringing your portfolio back in line with your targets.
Rebalancing is a buy low/sell high strategy—the opposite of what many investors actually do. It prompts you to buy assets after they have fallen in price. This may sound counterintuitive and may even be difficult to do the first time you try to employ it. Yet its bear market benefits may convince you of its value. Rebalancing lessens the blow of bear markets, making it easier to stick with stocks. In addition, rebalancing restores a sense of control. Rather than being left wondering what the best decision is for your portfolio based on what the pundits are saying about market direction, you have a strategy that prompts you to act and gives direction on how to do it.
Comparing Rebalancing to Panicking
To demonstrate how rebalancing could have provided a benefit to nervous and panic investors, I used hypothetical portfolios based on AAII's moderate asset allocation model. This model is one of three we track on our website at www.aaii.com/asset-allocation. The moderate asset allocation model uses a 70% allocation to domestic and international stocks and a 30% allocation to bonds. I ran the numbers assuming no withdrawals were made (Non-Withdrawal Portfolio) and assuming retirement withdrawals were made (Withdrawal Portfolio).
Portfolios were rebalanced at the end of each calendar year whenever any specific fund's weighting was more than five percentage points away from its target allocation (the "rebalance strategy"). This is a trigger point suggested by Vanguard's Francis Kinniry Jr., Colleen Jaconetti and Yan Zilbering in "Best Practices for Portfolio Rebalancing" (AAII Journal, May 2011). They concluded this threshold is likely to strike a reasonable balance between controlling risk and minimizing costs.
The portfolios use Vanguard mutual funds. I specifically chose Vanguard funds to limit the impact of active management, keep expenses to a minimum and to show as close to real-world results as possible. A starting date of 1988 was used simply because it was the first year with full calendar-year results for some of the funds I wanted to include.
A starting balance of $100,000 was chosen because it can easily be scaled up or down for comparisons. The Withdrawal Portfolio assumes 4% of the first year's ending balance is withdrawn for retirement expenses. This initial amount is then increased annually to reflect the rate of inflation over the previous 12 months, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). More details about the construction of the hypothetical portfolios can be found in an appendix below.
To simulate panicking, I assumed an investor pulled completely out of stocks whenever the S&P 500 fell by 20% or more during a calendar year. I further assumed the investor stayed out of the market for 12 months before returning back to his targeted allocation (the panic strategy). I view these assumptions as a good compromise since some investors reduce, but do not completely eliminate their stock holdings, while others not only completely pull out of stocks, but stay out for several years following a bear market. While the specifics of how to best simulate the practice of buying high and selling low are admittedly a subject for debate, one thing is certain: Panicking at the end of 2002 or 2008—which many did—would have caused an investor to miss out on the strong gains that occurred in 2003 and 2009. The impact of missing these two big rebounds is precisely what I simulated.
To give a more a complete comparison, I also looked at what happened if an investor set his portfolio allocation in 1988 and never altered it again (the "no-rebalancing strategy").
The Negative Wealth Impact of Panicking
Table 1 shows a summary of how the hypothetical portfolios performed. I'll start with a review of the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio.
From the standpoint of absolute wealth, just letting the portfolio ride without ever altering allocations produced the highest absolute returns (an ending balance of $1,110,308). This is not surprising given 2013's market rally. Rebalancing came in second with an ending balance of $1,087,803. Risk-reduction strategies, such as rebalancing, reduce a portfolio's relative upside and are a drag on performance during an extended bull market for the portfolio's largest asset. (I'll explain why it may make sense to give up some extra return momentarily.) The panic strategy came in a distant third, with an ending balance of $702,179. In other words, by acting to limit short-term loss during a bear market, the investor ended up forfeiting nearly $400,000 in wealth. It's a massive amount of money to lose by being too focused on the immediate downside volatility caused by broad market movements.
The Withdrawal Portfolio showed a similar pattern. Not rebalancing resulted in more ending net worth than employing rebalancing did ($595,290 versus $551,201). Panicking, however, resulted in an ending balance of $350,239, 36% less wealth than the rebalancing strategy. The total amounts withdrawn never changed under the three strategies because withdrawals were based on the portfolio's value at the end of the first year and only increased in response to inflation. This said, the far lower ending balance caused by panicking lessens a retiree's ability to incur a major expense and/or to pass along wealth to his heirs or preferred charity. If a higher withdrawal rate were used, the difference could also put the retiree at greater risk of running out of money.
Though ending wealth matters, so does volatility. A common trait among investors is the desire to maximize returns and limit losses. The financial markets do not work this way, however. Over long periods, additional return must be sacrificed if the goal is to reduce risk. Conversely, additional risk must be accepted if the goal is to maximize return. This leaves investors with a need to find a suitable balance between risk and reward. To this end, rebalancing works very well. During the last 26 years, rebalancing reduced volatility (as measured by the year-to-year fluctuations in annual returns) by 11.4% over the non-rebalancing strategy for the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio and by 12.2% for the Withdrawal Portfolio.
Even more notable, rebalancing caused the portfolios to experience nearly the same level of volatility as panicking. In other words, although the goal of pulling out of the market was to stop the pain of the bear markets, over the past 26 years, an investor would have experienced the same level of volatility by simply sticking with stocks and rebalancing as necessitated. Plus, he would have been rewarded with greater wealth by doing so.
I used first standard deviation to calculate volatility, but also calculated drawdown. Standard deviation considers the extent returns varied, either to the upside or the downside, from their average over the period measured. An alternative that is easier for some investors to grasp is drawdown. Drawdown shows the amount of wealth lost. It often used to measure a strategy's worst year or period of time.
On an absolute dollar basis, it looks like the panic strategy appears to have incurred the smallest drawdown in the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio with a loss of $183,385 in 2008. This number does not tell the full story, however, because the panic strategy started 2008 with a smaller balance than either the rebalancing or the non-rebalancing strategy ($610,571 versus $762,924 and $772,842, respectively). Looking at drawdown from a percentage basis sheds more insight. The panic strategy lost 30% in 2008 versus 26.9% for the rebalancing strategy. The non-rebalancing strategy had the largest drawdown at 32.8%.
Never adjusting a portfolio causes its allocations to drift toward the best-performing assets. This both increases returns over a long period of time and leads to more volatility. The non-rebalanced strategy entered 2008 with an 84.2% weighting to equities. In contrast, the rebalancing strategy entered 2008 with a 70.2% allocation to equities after allocations were adjusted back to target (rebalanced) at the end of 2006. Though these differences are for the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio, the Withdrawal Portfolio also experienced the smallest percentage drawdown when it was rebalanced.
It took last year's rally in stock prices to give the non-rebalancing strategy a higher ending wealth than the rebalanced strategy. At the end of 2012, greater ending wealth would have been realized by rebalancing than not rebalancing. This difference, which occurred in both the Non-Withdrawal and the Withdrawal Portfolios, is due to the differences in allocation. Not rebalancing caused both portfolios to start 2013 with an approximate 82% allocation to equities, whereas the rebalancing strategy's equity allocation was slightly below 70% for both portfolios. A greater allocation to stocks boosts returns during bull markets and hurts returns during bear markets relative to a smaller allocation.
(A point of interest: The Non-Withdrawal Portfolio ended 2013 with a 75.4% allocation to equities and a 24.6% allocation to bonds when the rebalancing strategy was used. An investor following this strategy would have been prompted to rebalance his portfolio by shifting money out of the stock fund and into the bond fund at the end of 2013. The Withdrawal Portfolio ended 2013 right on the edge of needing to be rebalanced with a 75% equity/25% bond split.)
What If Your Timing Is Bad?
One concern that keeps investors out of the market is a fear of investing at the wrong time. There is a psychological hurdle to investing when one is concerned the market could fall. Even Buffett-like investors don't enjoy seeing a stock they recently purchased decrease in value. The problem with waiting on the ideal time to get into the market is that an investor may wait too long to do it. In other words, stock prices may make a significant upward move before the investor reacts and allocates to stocks.
The alternative is for the investor to cross his fingers and allocate in a manner appropriate with his long-term goals regardless of what the market is doing. Doing so, however, can put the investor at risk of lousy market timing—he gets in shortly before a market top is formed and stocks drop considerably in price.
To test the impact of bad timing, I ran two additional scenarios. The first assumed an investor put money into the market at the start of 2000 (near the top of the tech bubble). Figure 1 illustrates the change in portfolio value from 2000 to 2013 for the three versions of this portfolio. The second scenario assumed an investor put money into the market at the start of 2007 (near the top of the housing bubble). In both instances, I looked to see what happened if an investor didn't do anything, rebalanced or panicked and got out of stocks. Table 2 gives a summary of the results for the 2000–2013 scenario, and Table 3 shows results for the 2007–2013 scenario.
|Panic and Sell
|at 5%
|When S&P 500 Falls
|Portfolio Strategy
|> 20%
|Non-Withdrawal Portfolio 2000–2013
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
|Withdrawal Portfolio 2000–2013
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Total Withdrawals
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
Even with bad timing, it is better to stay invested in stocks. An investor who started the 70% stock/30% bond portfolio in 2000 and never took retirement withdrawals but panicked at the end of 2002 and 2008 would have ended 2013 with approximately $76,000 (31%) less in wealth than an investor who rebalanced instead. The portfolio values at the end of 2013, assuming no withdrawals were made, were $242,973 for the rebalancing strategy and $166,806 for the panic strategy. The differences are less dramatic for an investor who entered the market at the start of 2007, but they are still significant. The investor who stuck with his original allocation decision and periodically rebalanced would have approximately $24,000 (19%) more wealth than the investor who panicked. If retirement withdrawals were made, the difference in ending wealth between panicking and rebalancing was $59,000 for the portfolio with a 2000 start date. When a 2007 start date was used, the rebalancing strategy ended with $22,000 more wealth than the panic strategy. More importantly, the panic strategy ended 2013 with a value below its $100,000 initial investment regardless of whether a 2000 or a 2007 start date was used.
Panicking did result in the lowest level of volatility under the 2000 and the 2007 start date scenarios. The lower level of standard deviation was accomplished by avoiding equities during the years with their largest upside moves. Since volatility only measures the magnitude of fluctuation but not the direction of the fluctuations, it can be lowered by avoiding good years, bad years, or both. Equity allocations also explain why the non-rebalancing strategy incurred less volatility and had a lower ending balance than the rebalancing strategy in the 2000 and the 2007 start date scenarios. In the 2000 scenario, the rebalancing strategy ended with a 75.4% allocation to equities versus a 72.4% allocation for the non-rebalancing strategy when no withdrawals were made. In the 2007 scenario, the ending equity allocations were 75.4% and 71.4%, respectively, when no withdrawals were made. This should not be surprising, since rebalancing purposely shifted the allocations back to target while not rebalancing allowed the market to determine how the portfolio's allocation evolved.
The percentage drawdowns were the largest in the panic strategy for the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio and the Withdrawal Portfolio in the 2000 start date scenarios. The panic strategy entered 2008 with the largest allocation to equities for both portfolios because it assumed an investor reverted back to his targeted allocations at the start of 2004 after being out of stocks for one year. The rebalancing strategy's allocations were adjusted back to target in 2001 and 2006 for the Non-Withdrawal Portfolio and in 2001, 2002 and 2004 for the Withdrawal Portfolio. Equity allocations under the non-rebalancing strategy were lowered in 2001 and 2002 by the bursting of the tech bubble.
|Panic and Sell
|at 5%
|When S&P 500 Falls
|Portfolio Strategy
|> 20%
|Non-Withdrawal Portfolio 2007–2013
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
|Withdrawal Portfolio 2007–2013
|Ending Portfolio Value
|Total Return
|Standard Deviation
|Annualized Return
|Largest Drawdown
|Largest Annual Loss
|Total Withdrawals
|Ending Equity Allocation
|Ending Fixed-Income Allocation
The drawdowns in 2008 are the same for all three strategies in each of the 2007 start date portfolios because the financial crisis started soon after the portfolios were started.
Concluding Remarks
The data clearly shows a penalty for panicking. Even if an investor has terrible timing decisions, he will do okay as long as he sticks to his allocation rather than pulling out after a loss is incurred. Incorporating a rebalancing strategy can help with the psychology. As the numbers show, rebalancing can both reduce volatility and lessen the blow of bear markets.
A compromise solution for those who feel nervous about investing in an asset that may have a large potential downside is to allocate to less-volatile segments of the asset class. For equities, this would be larger-capitalization domestic stocks, and even less economically sensitive sectors such as health care and utilities. For fixed income, this would be higher credit quality and shorter duration (less interest rate sensitivity) bonds. This would preserve the allocations while reducing some of the volatility at the expense of giving up some upside when that asset class finally rebounds in price.
Data for all of the portfolios and models, including year-by-year balances and returns, are available here. The return statistics for each of the funds come from Morningstar.com and track the annual change in net asset value.
Complete Data for All Portfolios and Variations
Download the Excel spreadsheets by clicking on each link:
Index mutual funds from Vanguard were used to limit the impact of active management, keep expenses to a minimum and to show close to real-world results. It is very possible for an investor to have mimicked these hypothetical portfolios and achieved similar results. Keep in mind that withdrawals made from a traditional IRA or a similar type of tax-deferred account would be taxed. The results shown in this article are on a pretax basis.
The specific target portfolio allocations are 20% in the Vanguard 500 Index fund (VFINX); 20% in the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index fund (VIMSX); 10% in the Vanguard Small-Cap Index fund (NAESX); 20% in the Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund (VGTSX), which invests in both developed and emerging market countries; and 30% in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index fund (VBMFX). This allocation is equivalent to our moderate portfolio allocation model, which can be seen at http://www.aaii.com/asset-allocation.
The starting year of 1988 was chosen because that was the first year enough index funds were available to conduct the study. A 20% allocation to Vanguard International Value fund (VTRIX), an actively managed fund, was used through the end of 1996, when Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund (VGTSX) was launched. A 30% allocation to the Vanguard Extended Market Index fund (VEXMX) was used from 1988 until 1998, when Vanguard Mid-Cap Index fund (VIMSX) became available. At the start of 1999, the VEXMX allocation was split between VIMSX (two-thirds) and Vanguard Small-Cap Index fund (NAESX) (one-third) to achieve the desired 20% mid-cap and 10% small-cap allocation.
The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) was used to adjust the annual withdrawal rates. This data can be downloaded, for free, at http://www.econstats.com/bls/blsnea8.htm.
Chris Simber from NJ posted over 2 years ago:
Great article...can never hear it enough, and appreciate the real-world data.
Robert Christman from NY posted over 2 years ago:
Excellent article.
Some of us have been known to buyout-of-the-money puts during market declines-can be tax-efficient if you have gains on your stocks.
As puts become profitable (market continues to decline), sell'em and buy lower strike puts.
May not appeal to everybody.
Mirsa from Texas posted over 2 years ago:
That data speaks loud and clear. Thank you for the research and writing this article.
JERRY from MI posted over 2 years ago:
Nathan Busch from MN posted over 2 years ago:
I understand and recognize the validity of your analysis under the assumption that the investor is using various index funds. However, my recent experience with the AAII Model Shadow Stock Portfolio and the Stock Superstars Portfolio indicates that starting to purchase individual stocks, which were recommended by AAII, at the wrong time can be entirely devastating. For complete disclosure, I just recently started to invest using the AAII MSSP and the Stock Superstars.
For instance, the recent additions of AVD, TTEK, JAZZ, PKG, OMCL as recommended by AAII have devastated my portfolio. Even if the future growth of the recommended portfolio were at 10% per year, it would take at least 2 to 3 years to recover from the losses. If one has 40 years or so until retirement, then the 2 to 3 years is relatively insignificant. When one has 5 years until retirement, such losses are a disaster.
The situation is particularly problematic when one is following recommendations from those who hold themselves out to have at least some elementary knowledge of investing. Since AAII has, to my knowledge, never revealed the complete set of rules for selecting a stock for the AAII MSSP and the complete set of rules for selecting the Stock Superstars remains a mystery, then one must rely upon the credibility of the individuals who have created the model portfolios. The situation is, then, ripe for abandonment of an investment strategy not because the individual is not in control of his emotions with regard to a particular loss/gain scenario; rather, the abandonment will occur because the individual making the suggestions has lost credibility in the eyes of the investor.
Upon this basis, then, your analysis is deeply flawed. To properly examine the actual dynamic, you should analyze either the AAII MSSP or the Stock Superstars Portfolio to examine the following question: what will happen to the portfolio of an individual who invested based upon the suggestions of the AAII and those suggestions turned out to be demonstrably wrong in the first place? Should that person stay or should that person realize that the person making the suggestion has lost credibility and figure out how to fix the problem by some other avenue?
The results of such a study would be far more useful to the individual investor than merely giving platitudes based upon a completely artificial scenario.
Nathan A. Busch
Peter Rukavena from NY posted over 2 years ago:
Sorry about your loss, you are right on. I am a fellow MN. threw blood my dad was born in Aurora / Virgina MN.
I am a 63 year old former CEO now semi -retired college business prof.
There is no newsletter or service out there that will allow you to beat the market on any consistent basis.Many of them them will force to over trade , which will lower your return.
If you look at their performance records it very much based on when you got in and owning all their recommendations at the right time.
Nadia from NY posted over 2 years ago:
Thank God my husband withdrew completely from stocks and into the money market in the beginning of 2008 and stayed away from stocks the entire year. Sure, we missed the beginning of the bull market, but so what? We are MUCH better off now then if we stayed fully invested through 2008.
Richard Abbott from FL posted over 2 years ago:
An article written in the AAII Journal dated January 2009 by Dale Domian and William Reichenstein called "STOCKS FOR THE LONG TERM: WHY PROSPECTS ARE ROSY". THIS ARTICLE SAID "STAY THE COURSE" - DO NOT BAIL OUT OF STOCKS NOW. This article saved me over $100,000!
I never sold any stocks and kept my allocation the same - now I' up over 200% from the February 2009 lows - thank to AAII's article.
Sometimes the "BEST" thing to do is "NOTHING"!!!
Paul Hendrickson from MI posted over 2 years ago:
As an 86 year old invester, I am no longer a long term invester. Therefor, I must watch closely when markets turn downward. I have used stop losses,and have determined when to. sell and stay in cash until the market looks appealing again.
It's hard to recover from too large losses when stocks start it rise again.
John Hawk from MA posted over 2 years ago:
Hi Charles,
Informative well-written article on the perils of Getting Out of Stocks. It seems like it may have a touch of confirmation bias in it, though, in that you chose a Panic scenario for getting out of stocks. A number of financial services provide systematic, non-panic-driven approaches to timing the market, on the theory that avoiding most of the bad times is worth giving up some of the good times. It would be interesting to see the current 3 scenarios compared against a more optimistic 4th scenario that times the market in a systematic way — perhaps using a moving average crossover criteria or some other non-proprietary mechanism. If this 4th scenario also comes out inferior in practice to the buy-and-hold and buy-and-rebalance approaches, I think your conclusions against timing the market would be much stronger and persuasive.
Richard Sherman from TX posted over 2 years ago:
If someone has the courage to buy stocks with each 5% drop in the market and there has been a large bear market drawdown, don't start the sell routine with the first 5% pop. Wait until the market has partially recovered before starting to sell.
Since we are at new highs, I think we should consider selling high. If someone is 60% stocks then go to 50%. After a significant drawdown, add the 10% back at the lower price.
If someone is below where they would like their longterm stock allocation to be, I would suggest waiting until the next bear before adding stocks.
Felix Ortecho from texas posted over 2 years ago:
Even the smartest people can make decisions based only on emotions: panic.
Great article, gives people to courage to do NOTHING.
Robert Franzen from MO posted over 2 years ago:
Thank you for an excellent article that quantifies the negative impact of market timing for the average mortal.
Every time I read a similar article, I find myself intrigued about discussions of how investors pull money out of the market and huge sums accumulate on the sidelines. This is a very erroneous concept since every time an investor sells a stock and places the proceeds on the sidelines, the investor who buys the stock does the exact reverse and pulls money off the sidelines. I have never seen this phenomenon appropriately discussed.
I challenge you to take this on as a future article, or perhaps invite the Phd's of the world to shine some light on this very "foggy" aspect of market activity.
I would nominate John P. Hussman, Phd. to "wrestle with this tiger" and reduce its complexity to a level of understanding that us mere mortals can understand.
JERRY from MI posted over 2 years ago:
Walter Caldwell from FL posted over 2 years ago:
I would like to see a future issue address the dilemma of how an investor who is fully invested in stocks should go about raising capital from his existing portfolio to invest in a downturn/bear market given that all stocks are likely to be cratering at the same time.
Franklin Jansen from FL posted over 2 years ago:
Shouldn't there be a column in the tables (for the re-balanced portfolio) labeled "After Taxes" ? Or at least a few words on the tax consequences of re-balancing, especially if short term capitol gains are involved.
Walter H. Weil from New York posted over 2 years ago:
I read your article with great interest. I agree that many investors buy high and sell low, with the result that accumulated retirement funds are disappointing and inadequate. For the 79 million boomers at or near retirement age, a tragedy is in the making. Many of them will be "cash dead" before their lives end.
Your chosen time period for the study, unfortunately, favorably biases the buy and hold strategy over the rebalancing one if one uses Shiller's CAPE valuation method. Your test period starts in 1988 with the S&P 500 Index at roughly fair value and terminates at the end of 2013 with the Index 50% overvalued. One would expect buy and hold to prevail during such a bullish interval.
A fair test would be to start at a time when the market was 50% overvalued and end at the end of 2013. when it was at the same level of overvaluation. (For your starting point, you could find out from Shiller the date when the market became 50% overvalued between 1988 and, say, the market top in 2000.) I suspect the result of such a test would render rebalancing the unequivocal winner over buy and hold--with a higher return, lower risk, and lower drawdown.
Even with your chosen test period, it is debatable which strategy is preferable. It really depends on one's risk orientation. I, for one, prefer rebalancing. After all, to increase one's risk by 12% and drawdown by 23% to achieve a 2% greater ending portfolio value isn't attractive to me. For some it might be.
Doug from NY posted over 2 years ago:
Robert Franzen wrote:
Every time I read a similar article, I find myself intrigued about discussions of how investors pull money out of the market and huge sums accumulate on the sidelines. This is a very erroneous concept since every time an investor sells a stock and places the proceeds on the sidelines, the investor who buys the stock does the exact reverse and pulls money off the sidelines. I have never seen this phenomenon appropriately discussed.
I think you may be right for CASH ACCOUNTS, in general. However, isn't it true that the "liquidity-providing entities", who populate the order books with limit buy and sell orders, are largely MARGIN ACCOUNTS? In which case, at least in the short run, you don't really have, on the opposite side of the trade, a matching "deficit" as investors sell, or a "surplus" as investors buy.
Walter Weil from New York posted over 2 years ago:
I read your article with great interest. I agree that many investors buy high and sell low, with the result that accumulated retirement funds are disappointing and inadequate. For the 79 million boomers at or near retirement age, a tragedy is in the making. Many will be ""cash dead"" before their lives end.
Your chosen time period for the study, unfortunately, has a bias in favor of the buy and hold strategy over the rebalancing one. Your test period starts in 1988 when the S&P 500 Index was approximately at fair value and terminates at the end of 2013 when it was 50% overvalued. (I use the Shiller CAPE valuation method.) One would expect buy and hold to prevail during such a bullish interval.
A fair test would be to start your study at a time when the Index was 50% overvalued and end it at the end of 2013, when the market was at the same level of overvaluation. (For your starting date, you could find out from Shiller when the Index became 50% overvalued during the period from 1988 to 2000.) I suspect the result of such a test would render rebalancing the unequivocal winner over buy and
hold--with a higher return, lower standard deviation (risk), and lower drawdown.
Even with your chosen test period, it is debatable which strategy is preferable. It really depends on one's risk orientation. I, for one, prefer rebalancing. After all, to increase one's risk by 12% and drawdown by 23% to achieve a 2% greater ending portfolio value isn't attractive to me. For some, it might be.
Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:
If rebalancing is done on a periodic, annual basis, short-term taxes will largely be avoided. The tax impact can also be minimized by using IRA and 401(k) accounts to do the rebalancing instead of taxable accounts.
Not rebalancing and letting the portfolio just ride will have lower costs. It will also result in greater volatility, which in turn could lead to a greater chance of panicking.
Adam Gallucci from MA posted over 2 years ago:
Excellent article. I approach my retirement account management with a fairly strict asset allocation model with rebalancing. As mentioned in the article, reducing a highly performing asset may limit upside if that asset has yet more gains to occur. What I often wonder about is: has anyone done a statistical analysis of using technical indicators to further refine buy and sell decisions that are primarily driven by asset allocation indications? We are in an era where moving averages, MACD graphs, etc are readily available on line.
Walter Weil from New York posted over 2 years ago:
I read with great interest your article "The Danger of Getting Out of Stocks During Bear Markets." I agree that many investors buy high and sell low, with the result that accumulated retirement funds are disappointing and inadequate. For the 79 million boomers at or near retirement age, a tragedy is in the making -- many of them will be "cash dead" before their lives end.
Your chosen time period for the study, unfortunately, is biased in favor of the buy and hold strategy over the rebalancing one. If one uses Shiller's CAPE for valuation purposes, your test period starts in 1988 with a stock market (S&P 500 Index) at roughly fair value and ends at the end of 2013 with it 50% overvalued. One should expect buy and hold to prevail over rebalancing during such a bullish interval.
A fair test would be to start at a time when the market was 50% overvalued and end at the end of 2013, when it was at the same level of overvaluation. (For your starting point, you could find out from Shiller the date when the market became 50% overvalued between 1988 and 1999.) I suspect the result of such a test would render rebalancing the unequivocal winner over buy and hold-- with a higher return, lower risk, and lower drawdown.
Even in the case of your chosen test period, it is debatable which strategy is preferable. It really depends on one's risk orientation. I, for one, prefer rebalancing. After all, to increase one's risk by 12% and drawdown by 23% to achieve a 2% greater ending portfolio value isn't attractive to me. For some, it might be.
I hope this email stimulates you to retest without the bias.
Best regards,
Walter Weil
Walter Weil from New York posted over 2 years ago:
I called AAII this morning and left a message with you that I was interested in knowing whether you ever received my comment.
If you are interested in testing your findings over another interval of time, you might start at the end of 1995, when, according to Shiller's CAPE Index, the S&P 500 Index was 50% overvalued, the same level of overvaluation as at the end of 2013.
Best regards,
Walter Weil
Craig Schaefer from NY posted over 2 years ago:
Could you comment on the reason for using 30% of funds in bonds (70/30 allocation) if an investor is going to do nothing and ride out a downturn. It seems investors would be better off if they stayed 100% in stocks with this philosophy.
Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:
The assumption is that the investor wanted a diversified portfolio and initially followed our moderate asset allocation model.
If you want to see how the results would have looked with a different allocation, the spreadsheets I used can be downloaded from above. (See the "Complete Data for All Portfolios and Variations" section near the end of the article.)
Albert Mooiweer from CA posted over 2 years ago:
"The Danger of Getting out of Stock during Bear Markets".
This danger clearly exists based on cash outflows and inflows of equity markets. Where I disagree Is calling it panic selling by pulling out of stocks during bear markets. The idea is to get back in the market at a lower price.
You assumed an investor pulled completely out of stocks whenever the S&P 500 fell by 20% or more (during a calendar year?) Then you are surely in a bear market. It seemed illogical to assume the investor to stay out of the market for 12 months. A year after the 2000 recession the market was still going down! After the 2008 recession the 12 month turned out to be not too bad.
In 2000 the S&P 500 topped out at 1527.5 on 3/24, thus getting out at 1222.0, the next closing value of 3/12/2001 at 1180.2. Getting back in a year later on 3/12/2002 at 1165.6 ( at 99% of the value you got out) seems foolish as the market is still fluctuating.
Let us assume that the investor gets back in equities when the market has recovered 20% from the bottom. The minimum closing daily S&P 500 was formed on 10/9/2002 at 776.8. Thus you would get back in at 932.2 or on the next closing daily of 934.4 on 5/6/2003. This is at 79% of the price you got out.
Similarly, you got out of the market 20% below the top of 10/9/2007, you could get back in after a year for 71% of the value of the S&P 500 where you got out. Even better is to get in at 20% above the bottom for 65% of where you got out.
There are many variations to get out below the top and get back in at a lower price. Consider MOVING AVERAGES, be it 100 days, 200 days or a year. At the crossover with an index you get your sell and buy signals. At the shorter averaging times you may get whipsawed occasionally, when you have to buy back in at a higher price than you got out.
Joe Gass from OH posted over 2 years ago:
Reference your article "The Danger of Getting Out of Stocks During Bear Markets".
I enjoyed reading your article and the analysis within it. I thought it was very thought provoking. However, I am also curious on how making a couple of assumption modifications might have changed the outcome. The first change would be to see what the results impact would be with a 12% "Panic and Sell" percentage. The second change would be to use the 200 day simple moving average crossover as a re-entry point.
I look forward to your response.
Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:
Hi Joe,
I was not trying to create the optimal portfolio strategy, but rather wanted to show how dangerous panicking during a bear market is.
The analysis used year-end data. If you want to adjust the scenarios, the downloadable spreadsheets have instructions for how the calculations are set up (see the "Complete Data for All Portfolios and Variations" box above).
As far as the 200-day moving average, you would need quarterly or monthly data to better approximate it, as well as a long-term chart to show when the S&P 500 has traded above and below the trend line. Jeremy Siegel wrote about using the indicator in "Stocks for the Long Run" and I wrote a synopsis of what he said in my AAII Investor Update newsletter,
Daniel Wagner from MA posted over 2 years ago:
I don't understand how the drawdowns on the panic portfolio can be more than 20%? I thought the whole assumption of the panic portfolio was that all stocks are sold anytime the equity market has a loss of 20%? I doubt the 30% bond portion of the portfolio accounted for the rest of the drawdown, since bonds have done so well over the past 30 years.
Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:
I assumed all changes were made at the end of a calendar year. During the two panic years (2002 & 2008), the S&P 500 fell by more than 20%.
Investors who panic are not using stop loss limits. They are selling when they can no longer withstand the losses.
Nick J. from Florida posted about 1 year ago:
I am a simple guy with a simple investment strategy - buy good blue chip stocks that pay reasonable dividends with a history of increasing dividend yields. So, if you buy $100K of stocks that pay on average 3% dividends - if the market goes up or down, I am still getting the same cash flow since the number of my shares do the change with the fluctuation of stock prices. Only risk is if the companies cut back or stop paying dividends but I will take that risk into account in my selection of blue chip dividend stocks. It is like getting an annuity that pays 3%, with liquidity and potential future upside and without any stock maintenance costs (no mutual fund fees or investor fess). Would appreciate any thoughts?
Tony from PA posted about 1 year ago:
Your study results are very misleading and dangerous to the exact people you are supposed to be helping. The biggest misleading factor in your study is that fixed income or bond funds have been in a 34 year bull market since 1981. When interest rates are falling from 21% in 1981 to 0% today, that is very bullish for stocks as well as bonds.
Since interest rates are currently zero, it follows that any investment in bonds in particular and stocks generally will be a losing strategy into the future. If you want a crystal ball into our future, just look at a country that has had basically ZERO interest rates since 1989--Japan. It's stock market has gone from a high of 38,916 in 1989 to 7,155 in 2009. Please tell them to buy & hold during those 20 years and re-balance every year. IMHO, I think that's what are future looks like. Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat the mistakes.
I personally buy 100% blue chip stocks (like Nick does in the comment above me) using a married put strategy that limits my downside to less than 4% and leaves my upside unlimited. Forget about bond funds unless you want to lose your money. When interest rates rise, bond funds go down. Of course, euro-weenies are buying negative interest rate return bonds. Tell me how that is going to end well.....unless you believe in the greater fool theory!


text:
This SWEEPS data were created from the HST proposal 9750: K. Sahu, and H. Bond (STScI), T. Brown (High Altitude Observatory, Boulder), S. Casertano and M. Livio (STScI), D. Minniti (Catholic University of Chile), N. Panagia (STScI), A. Renzini (Astronomical Observatory of Padova, Italy), R. Rich (University of California, Los Angeles), and M. Zoccali (Catholic University of Chile).
The science team includes A. Kowalski (University of Washington), R. Osten and K. Sahu (STScI), and S. Hawley (University of Washington). The science team also includes J. Valenti, E. Smith, T. Brown, W. Clarkson, and S. Lubow (STScI), and N. Piskunov (Uppsala University, Sweden).

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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text:
Not quite timely
Finally, here's the photo album from Tuesday's game against the Padres. Better known as: "Mike Piazza's back! AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"
How much love has MLB.com given me this week? Not only will I be on MLB.com radio tonight at 10:20 PM, but here's my Spheroid too!
Alas, Rob's out of town this weekend visiting his brother's family in DC. And…no joke…going to the Mets-Nationals game.
2 Comments
Nice pics! The "winning smoke" shot at the end might be my fave. Haven't gotten to listen to you yet on MLB Radio, but I will. Hope it went well.
-The Baseball Collector
Nice album and I love the spheroid! (Though I dozed off before the radio gig! lol) We stranded a bunch on base last night, but on the bright side Glavine was fairly effective. Can't wait to see Maine tonight!
~Eddie @ Willie Ball


text:
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text:
Who won?
Posted 27 November 2010 - 06:32 PM
Who won?
Posted 27 November 2010 - 07:00 PM
West Bank 16-10 according to someone on rlfans.com
Posted 28 November 2010 - 06:24 PM
dont want to put a dampener on things but way the weather is looking for next week prob have games off again ,lets hope not.sick of bloody shopping
#84 Guest_hairywombat_*
Posted 28 November 2010 - 07:40 PM
Edited by hairywombat, 28 November 2010 - 07:42 PM.
Posted 28 November 2010 - 07:56 PM
bit of overtime for the council boys then ? get them paths cleared !!!!!!!!!111
#86 Guest_hairywombat_*
Posted 28 November 2010 - 11:14 PM
Posted 29 November 2010 - 09:25 AM
Posted 01 December 2010 - 10:29 AM
Posted 01 December 2010 - 11:26 AM
snowing here in leigh on top of frost weather will have to turn for games to be played here this week,but we got a couple of days yet out can happen.
Posted 01 December 2010 - 11:29 AM
sods law just as i post that bloody suns out now,whey hey .
#91 Guest_hairywombat_*
Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:46 PM
Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:55 PM
After a freeze the temperature has to rise to 3 degrees or above for the grass pitches to begin to thaw. It will come down to Friday night and your sun coming out on Saturday morning for a thaw. Can't see any change to anywhere myself but lets keep our cringers frosed.
Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:57 PM
I`m surprised you had to pay for it thought we would be paying for it. Bet it was subsidised.
Robbin gas b-stards
Of cricket, rugby, beer, of pudding and of cheese
I know no other county where the land is quite so fine
England's lovely county. And I'm proud to call it mine
Where shining purple heather stretches far across the moor
And the lapwing's cry above me takes the place of traffic roar
And peace comes drifting gently, there's no place I'd rather be
Than this land of hills and valleys, from the Pennines to the sea
So when I've done my roaming, and when my step grows slow
When heart and mind assure me that the time has come to go
Then let me rest in Yorkshire, for its there I want to lie
'Neath sun and wind and heather... and a gleaming Yorkshire sky
Posted 01 December 2010 - 04:19 PM
Robbin gas b-stards
some people call the gas board employees TOFO's , i wonder what it stands for
Posted 02 December 2010 - 07:24 AM
il put ny neck out and say same as last week no games on this week
Posted 02 December 2010 - 08:26 AM
Dont need to stick anything out for wigan and (small surounding areas )leigh NO CHANCE!!!!!!
#97 Guest_hairywombat_*
Posted 02 December 2010 - 10:21 AM
Robbin gas b-stards
Different dept, we were proper gas men, laying main pipes in all weathers. Sometimes even going outside in winter.
Posted 02 December 2010 - 04:02 PM
Posted 02 December 2010 - 04:20 PM
Posted 03 December 2010 - 08:40 AM
one thing that wont be off for the 2nd week is bloody wife wanting to go shopping,


text:
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And a big thank you to Erika @ FASHIONCHALET, I won her awesome giveaway:
can't wait to wear it! <3


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text: ...are now dried and mounted. And I tried photographing them again with my little Canon Powershot SX100 IS. Here's the most delicate of the three ants. I think it might be Leptomyrmex species - Spider Ant. I had fun mounting the ants. They are so small I decided to side mount them on the pins instead of using a card. It was a real learning experience. I think I mounted this one a bit too high up the pin.


text:
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text:
March 30, 2001
Springfield -- The Illinois State Board of Education's Division of Professional Preparation and the Partnership for Professional Development will host the Second Annual Induction Conference, on April 23 and 24 at the Holiday Inn, 1001 Killarney, Urbana.
The conference, titled "Successful Transition: Helping Illinois Teachers Move from Novice to Expert" will feature Gary DeBolt, author and nationally respected expert on induction and mentoring. DeBolt is Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum & Instruction for the Fairport Central School District, Fairport, New York.
The conference is designed to provide an area for existing programs to network with others from around the state, as well as showcase programs that take new teachers from preservice to the initial certificate and on to the standard certificate after four years of teaching.
A combination of speakers, breakout sessions, exhibitors, and programs will give attendees an idea of the kind of induction and mentoring programs now helping to support novice teachers statewide.
The Partnership for Professional Development comprises the State Board of Education; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Vermillion County Regional Office; Champaign-Ford County Regional Office; Macon-Piatt County Regional Office; Illinois Education Association; Illinois Federation of Teachers; and over 46 school districts.
Registration is open through April 9. Late registrations may be accommodated at the conference. For more information call Jenny Bolander in the State Board's Division of Professional Preparation at 217/782-4330 or visit www.isbe.net/profprep.
Interested parties can also get information from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Novice Support Network at, http://ntsp.ed.uiuc.edu/Default.asp?bhcd2=985972253


text:
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text:
Changing the world is a big task.
But it's a goal one La Crescent teacher is chasing, one American student, African student and plane ticket at a time.
La Crescent high school teacher Mary-Kate Martin has been teaching English for two years.
But sit in her class for just a few minutes and you'll quickly realize her passion to change students' lives reaches beyond the state border even beyond the U.S. border, all the way to Africa.
Martin has a foot in two worlds and as she works to make a difference here and abroad, she's building a bridge for American and African students alike.
Martin became a teacher for one reason.
"I'm in teaching because I literally want to change the world," said Martin.
But it was years before this Wisconsin native ever had her own classroom at La Crescent high school that her pursuit began.
"I first went to Swazi in 2008 on a mission trip with some other college kids," said Martin.
It was a random choice to go to Swaziland, Africa, 9,000 miles from home but it would set the course for her future.
"We went there for two months and worked at a school and an orphanage and care points and cared for the kids there and that's where I met a girl named Tanele. She was 12 years old at the time and had a terrible life. She lived with a stepmother who abused her physically and then sold her to other men," said Martin.
The stories Martin heard and the faces she saw during her trip were more than enough to capture her heart.
"Came back, finished college at UW-L, graduated and decided to go back to Swazi for a year. I wanted to go back to where the other half of my heart was," said Martin.
Martin went to teach but also to do whatever she could to help Tanele.
"When I got back, I found out she had run away from home and ran into the streets as a prostitute. At the end of nine months, I found out that she was pregnant. She did end up leaving prostitution but she lived with the father of her now child but he was abusive and the problem there was even though I tried to help her her situation was I didn't have a home to offer her," said Martin.
It was in that moment, when Martin realized her inability to save Tanele and so many like her, that a dream began to form.
"That's what started the idea behind Hosea's Heart and building a home for these girls. So Hosea's Heart is created to build a home of hope," said Martin.
The hope for life home is an old building that was given to Martin's non-profit organization Hosea's Heart and as it's renovated from the inside out one tile and paint stroke at a time, it will become a place where young women also find their chance for transformation.
As the renovation began Martin focused on a new challenge, stepping into her own American classroom for the first time at La Crescent High School and it didn't take long for her students to start hearing stories from the land of Swazi.
"She talked about it on our first day at school which was really cool," said La Crescent sophomore Allison Stoeffler, one of Martin's former students.
"On the first day she gave us a background on her life and every once in a while she would tell us stories of her trip and her experience," said La Crescent sophomore Rachel Schuster one of Martin's former students.
"I love how the kids are so eager to get involved in something. That's probably been the most encouraging part," said Martin.
Even though they were only freshmen, a group of students in Martin's class decided just hearing the stories wasn't enough.
"I kind of thought to myself, we have it really easy over here and they don't have much over there, so I thought maybe helping them out would be kind of nice," said La Crescent sophomore Breeana Burr, one of Martin's former students.


text:
Submit News
Eric Schmidt Suggests Peace With Apple is Coming, Dismisses Windows Phone
Jason Mick
December 5, 2012 12:30 PM
Recipient E-mail
Sender E-mail
Schmidt also expresses frustration with patent wars; disdain for Windows Phone
When it comes to Eric Schmidt,
Google Inc. (
) CEO and his company's arch-nemesis Apple, Inc. (
), the ties that bind are almost as strong as the ties that separate.
I. Victims of Smartphone War are the Little Guys, Says Schmidt
During much of Mr. Schmidt's time atop the Google throne; he also
served on Apple's board of directors
. The two companies had a fruitful relationship and Mr. Schmidt
was close friends
with late Apple CEO Steven P. Jobs. That relationship fast deteriorated when Google decided to launch Android, a Linux based smartphone platform that would eventually come to heavily outsell Apple in the smartphone market in unit sales. Mr. Jobs
expressed a feeling of "betrayal"
at the decision, which not only spoke to his
zealous feelings of ownership
of the smartphone market, but also his strange relationship with Google and Mr. Schmidt.
In an interview with the
Wall Street Journal
Mr. Schmidt speaks optimistically that the pair can work out their differences with respect to patent litigation, commenting:
[Google's relationship with Apple has] always been on and off. Obviously, we would have preferred them to
use our maps
. They threw YouTube off the home screen [of iPhones and iPads]. I'm not quite sure why they did that.
[But] the adult way to run a business is to run it more like a country. They have disputes, yet they've actually been able to have huge trade with each other. They're not sending bombs at each other.
I think both Tim [Cook, Apple's CEO] and Larry [Page, Google's CEO], the sort of successors to Steve [Jobs] and me if you will, have an understanding of this state model. When they and their teams meet, they have just a long list of things to talk about.
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is not concerned Android will be hurt by the patent wars.
[Image Source: The Sydney Morning Herald]
Mr. Schmidt says that both Apple and Google are "doing fine" and that
neither side
has been able to gain ground in the patent war, much like the entrenched empires of the First World War. He says that the real "loser" in the patent wars are small startups, which might look to create an innovative news smartphone operating system as Android VP Andy Rubin did when his startup made what would later become Android back in the middle of the last decade. With all the lawsuits and junk patents, Mr. Schmidt argues such "garage" innovation is simply impossible in today's legal climate.
II. Former CEO Addresses Criticism, Says Microsoft is no Threat
The Google executive admits that his company long lagged Apple in terms of financially compensating developers. He remarks, "Google Play [Google's app store] and the monetization just started working well in the last year, maybe the last six months. The volume is indisputable, and with the volume comes the opportunity and the luxury of time."
As for the perennial question of whether Google
will or should favor new acquisition Motorola Mobility
over its third-party Android partners, Mr. Schmidt says that would be a "terrible mistake". He says that when the deal was announced he personally flew to meet with executives at South Korea's Samsung Electronics Comp., Ltd. (
) -- the world's largest smartphone maker and foremost Android adopter -- to assure them that there would be no favoritism.
As for Microsoft Corp.'s (
Windows Phone
; Mr. Schmidt was dismissive of the operating system. He blasts, "I have not used it, but I think that Microsoft has not emerged as a trendsetter in this new model yet."
Eric Schmidt argues Microsoft's Windows Phone is no "trend setter".
Mr. Schmidt expressed hopes that
current antitrust investigations
Google's involvement in various markets
would wrap up. He says he has no interest working for the Obama administration in a government post, saying Google has always been his "home".
"If they're going to pirate somebody, we want it to be us rather than somebody else." -- Microsoft Business Group President Jeff Raikes
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text:
Dear Friends,
I know Green Belt and Black Belt but I heard that there is one more type of belt called Yellow Belt.
Could you please put some light on this.
Thanks in Advance
by webmonkey » Mon Apr 30, 2007 6:24 pm
by johnson33445 » Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:50 am
Address: 388-A , Road no 22, Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad AP, INDIA-500033
Email: email@example.com
Website: www.tutorialspoint.com
Keep up on our always latest technology tutorials, articles and news. Enter your e-mail and subscribe to our newsletter.


text:
The city of Keene, New Hampshire, is accusing a group that feeds parking meters of harassing parking enforcement officers. A lawsuit has been filed.
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text:
Sharyl Attkisson and CBS News: An epic fail in reporting on the murder of autistic teen Alex Spourdalakis
An antivaccine reporter strikes again
The damaged done by the antivaccine movement is primarily in how it frightens parents out of vaccinating using classic denialist tactics of spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). Indeed, as has been pointed out many times before, antivaccinationists are often proud of their success in discouraging parents from vaccinating, with one leader of the antivaccine movement even going so far as to characterize his antivaccine "community, held together with duct tape and bailing wire," as being in the "early to middle stages of bringing the U.S. vaccine program to its knees." Meanwhile, just last week Anne Dachel, "media editor" for the antivaccine crank blog Age of Autism, gloated about basically the same thing, how although overall vaccination rates remain high, vaccine exemption rates are up in many areas of the country and how her movement has provided plenty of information to "scare [parents] out of vaccinating."
And it is the very same antivaccine propaganda blog, Age of Autism, that is promoting a different, more insidious message, specifically how the brutal murder of an autistic teen nearly three months ago "illumines the autism nightmare." What do I mean by "insidious message"? It's the hijacking of the autism advocacy movement, which tries to advocate for more services for autistic children and adults and more awareness and understanding of autism, by the antivaccine message that autistic people are somehow "damaged," be it by vaccines or unnamed "toxins," that the "real child" has been "stolen" by autism, and that any manner of biomedical quackery to "recover" autistics is justified by the horror of autism. Although Attkisson, the reporter for the story discussed below, never specifically mentions vaccines, if you know the background of the case, that message is quite obvious and not very far under the surface of her report on the murder of Alex Spourdalakis:
Not surprisingly, this story was reported by Sharyl Attkisson, who is CBS News' resident antivaccine reporter. I've known her to promote antivaccine views in a manner that gave Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. a run for his money as far back as 2007. Since then, she's smeared Paul Offit as a "pharma shill," very likely fed information to someone at AoA to help them portray Lisa Randall at Voices for Vaccines as an "industry group," done a puff piece about antivaccine physician and hero to the antivaccine movement Andrew Wakefield, and misreported the significance of the Hannah Poling case (which was really just the rebranding of autism). Most recently, Attkisson promoted a truly execrable "review article" summarizing the evidence relating vaccines to autism. The review article, by Helen Ratajczak, cited lots of pseudoscience from antivaccine literature in the service of supporting a truly dumb hypothesis, namely that DNA from vaccines could recombine in the brains of children to result in autism. Attkisson was quite smitten with the idea. As you might imagine, I was not. Along the way, Attkisson also indulged in promoting breast cancer misinformation. No wonder she is the perfect reporter to do this story promoting the viewpoint that autism is so horrible and the system provides so little help that we should understand why a mother like Alex's might become so desperate that she would poison her son and then, when that failed to kill him, try to slash his wrist, and then, when that failed, stab him in the heart with a kitchen knife.


text:
"I recently ordered Photo Graduation Cards for my son who is graduating high school. The design process was extremely user-friendly, and there were so many options to choose from. I was able to design several different cards with different pictures and I loved the "compare" feature where I could choose and compare my designs and easily scroll between my options. Because I had such a small amount of text on my card, I felt confident in choosing the option of sending it straight to print, without having someone proof it before it was printed which allowed for a quicker turnaround time. The card arrived when I expected it, and it was beautiful!! There is a nice weight to the card, and clear sharp photo quality. It really exceeded my expectations! Thank you!!"
"My school's graduation invitations were so expensive and all of my friends bought them. They were plain and simple with only words, but I was able to buy my invitations from this site with my own picture and the cute fonts that they have available for way less than the boring invitations my school was selling."
"I reviewed a number of websites for graduation announcements for my son, but Tinyprints had by far the best selection and reviews. I narrowed my choices down to 8, then 3, before finally selecting the Chalk Yearbook design (with concurrence from my son). The process for ordering was simple and personalizing was a snap. Received my order before expected and was so pleased with the quality and design. The paper/card stock is nice and heavy - loved the background, too. I ordered liners for my envelopes, which I had to affix, but as promised, this was an extremely easy process."
"Loved the design for my graduating son. I wished more color options would have been available. Not sure if the pearl paper would have helped the overall finish or hindered the chalk affect. Overall we were very pleased with the whole package for my son's personality. A great way to go instead of traditional graduation announcements!"
Copyright © 2004-2016 Shutterfly, Inc | Tiny Prints | Terms of Use. Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners.


text:
I still wanna see TT knock him out in celebrity boxing or something.
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]Whether it's scrimmage or regular season, forward expects a lot from Nuggets
By Chris Tomasson, Rocky Mountain News
October 12, 2004
Kenyon Martin says he always gives "110 percent." If Monday's practice is any indication, even mathematicians might have a hard time arguing.
It was a routine scrimmage, but the Denver Nuggets power forward played with so much intensity, you'd have thought there was an "NBA Finals" logo stuck to the floor. When a call didn't go his way, he scowled at a member of the Nuggets staff who was playing the role of referee.
I still wanna see TT knock him out in celebrity boxing or something.
TT is nutz he smoke both of them and somthinwil happen next time they meet
The knicks should try to re-aquire Nene. The don't have enough minutes to keep him there. camby got a huge contract, K-Mart is a lock at the 4. The team is looking at Nene whether or not to resign him. IT should try to parlay KT for Nene. Just a thought.
Another forward? We're packed with forwards and guards already, we should go hard for big men. And as of KT for Nene trade... How it would look like if we'll go for it? First IT is talking about trading Kurt, then he's making him a co-captain and right after that he gets rid of him...
I Welcome the suggestion of anyone who thinks Nene can't play centre. He played centre last year to spell Camby. I'll glady take someone that is young and can score down low...Nene can. Plus if a "true center" comes along you still have Nene at the 4. Just a thought. Yeah, we have Sweetney, but he can come off the bench. I know I may ruffle a few feathers, but that's life.
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
But that means we STILL have to go for a true center, doesn't it? See, our problem is that we're not focused on improving our weakest position but instead we're looking forward for forwards.
I agree N can play center BUT he's still a forward. Same with Kurt. To deal with Big Ben, shaq and others we need a REAL center. Of course if we want to tae over that matchup...


text:
Quirky habits of people over 100
Published On: May 12 2013 11:45:47 PM CDT Updated On: May 14 2013 01:00:00 AM CDT
To what do centenarians attribute their long lives? Take a look at these quirky tricks people who have lived past 100 swear by.
The views expressed are not those of this company or its affiliated companies. Please note by clicking on "Post" you acknowledge that you have read the Terms Of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms.


text:
This is the necktie with a built-in inflatable pillow that enables the fully-engaged executive to inconspicuously recharge with a power nap. Ideal for the captain of industry who frequently over-indexes on all aspects of the business to the detriment of his own replenishment, the tie requires only a few puffs of air on its hidden valve and a closed office door or a darkened conference room for brief refreshment. It even provides impromptu cushioning in a pinch while flying economy during a period of rigorous belt-tightening. The tie's silk and microfiber blend will leave no tell-tale marks on one's face and forehead after a brief rest. 19" L x 4" W. (4 oz.)
Lifetime Guarantee
The Driven Executive's Nap Tie comes with The Hammacher Schlemmer Lifetime Guarantee at no additional charge. If this product ever disappoints you, for any reason, you may return your Hammacher Schlemmer purchase for exchange, credit, or refund.Should you have any questions, we are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Please call 1-800-321-1484 to speak with a product specialist or email us at email@example.com to receive a response within one hour.
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(1 of 1 customers found this review helpful)
Perfect Gift!
By ggauntann
from Houston, tx
Best Uses
This is just the cutest gift and looks like a stylish, real tie someone would wear.
Bottom Line Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
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text:
To do so, local board members are asking for the support of churches, organizations, corporations and individuals as they prepare for their first fundraiser. They have completed two "Brush with Kindness" projects in preparation for building a new home.
Faith Lutheran Church is sponsoring a barbecue chicken fundraiser with the Bee County Habitat for Humanity board of directors on Sunday, Sept. 8, from 11:45 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the church, 1500 E. FM 351.
The meal with dessert will be priced at $7 per ticket and can be eaten at the church or picked up in a drive through line. Tickets can be purchased at Bee Agricultural Co. (358-3470), from Don Taylor (362-3443), Chip Latcham (358-2550), Monica Fox (542-1137), or other members of the board of directors.
This event is a "Care Abounds in Community" activity of Thrivent Financial, the Gulf Coast Chapter of Thrivent, and is being celebrated on "God's Work, Our Hands" Sunday of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.
Churches and Habitat for Humanity have been big supporters of improving the housing needs of America, said Don Taylor, Bee County Habitat officer. Through the work of the fraternal organization, Thrivent, Habitat members will be receiving "matching funds" for their work.
"Please call and get your tickets early," Taylor said, adding, "Thanks for your support."


text:
Q50 ushers new era for Infiniti
Published On: Jan 30 2013 12:57:40 PM PST Updated On: Jan 14 2013 10:58:50 AM PST
Get used to seeing the letter Q a lot at your local Infiniti dealership, starting with the new Q50.
The views expressed are not those of this company or its affiliated companies. By posting your comments you agree to our Terms of Use.


text:
Ganzi Food
Last updated by at 2016/5/21
Ganzi Featured Food:
Wild Vegetables
Each year from July to September, Daocheng County will teem with various wild funguses. There are about 57 kinds, including the best selling tricholoma to Japan. You can enjoy it to your heart content here. Besides, there are delicious yangdu fungus and niudu fungus in Daocheng County. Well known dish therefore include Tibetan Chicken cooked with Chinese Caterpillar Fungus, Tibetan Chicken Cooked with caladium, and Tibetan Pork stewed with membranous milk vetch. In addition, Daocheng County produces many rare Chinese traditional medicines, such as Chinese Caterpillar Fungus and caladium. You are suggested to order before hand if you want to have dish cooked with such materials.
Milk Produces
There are a lot of cow and sheep raised in Kangding. Therefore milk produces here are really abundant, including the two most popular ones, namely, acidophilus milk, and milk residue. Acidophilus milk can be further divided into two flavors: cheese, also called daxue in Tibetan language. It is made of the refined milk produces with butter. The other flavor is called exue in Tibetan and it is not refined through butter. No matter what kind of acidophilus milk it is, the raw material is milk; after the chemical change in sugar, it becomes more nutritious; through the process of boil, water is vaporized and the milk depositions are left. Milk depositions can be made into milk biscuits and coagulations. When the milk is boiled, a piece of crust will come into form. In Tibetan it is called bima. The milk crust looks like bean curd skin; it tastes very delicious and has rich nutrition.
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Yading Nature Reserve is situated in the southern rea… >> details
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text:
Damn. Thanks for the heads up....
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
GQ caught up with Mario Chalmers and asked him some questions. One of the questions was about Dwayne Wade and I had to post it.....
GQ: Last, and most important, question: Does D-Wade still paint his toenails black?
Mario Chalmers: Yeah. Matter of fact, he just did it yesterday. We were texting and he told me he was painting his toenails. He does it every summer. I don't know why.
Read More [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
Any grown man that paints their toenails has issues and this shows how much we need Marcus Camby to level Dwayne Wade whenever he and his black toenails drive the lane.
"The Knicks are back" - Amare
Damn. Thanks for the heads up....
If this is manly:
And, this is gay:
I'll take homo, any day!
"Winner of the coveted "Chink in the Armor" award!"
When I saw the title for this thread I fell to the floor laughing.
Painting his toe nails, that's mad weird. I wouldn't call him gay but wtf???
I log in today and the first thing I see is a thread about toenails
Wade can afford Lamisil tablets. He's just more in touch w his buttmunching side than most men.
Bosh seems like he'd take a nut to the grill also.
Even if. I couldn't care less. If Chandler were gay that would be fine by me, as long as he knows how to play basketball ...
"Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
Kurt Vonnegut


text:
Nutrition Facts
Serving Size 3 pepper rolls
Calories 135
Calories from Fat 90
Total Fat 11 g
Saturated Fat 5 g
Cholesterol 15 mg
Sodium 180 mg
Total Carbohydrate 6 g
Dietary Fiber 0 g
Sugars 0 g
Proteins 6 g
Vitamin A 30% DV
Vitamin C 270% DV
Calcium 6% DV
Iron 6% DV
Percent Daily Values (DV) are based on a 2,000 calorie diet.
Servings and Times
Servings 8
Preparation Time 20 minutes
Cups of Fruits and Vegetables Per Person: 1.0
Ingredients and Preparation
Ingredients Measures
Red bell peppers 6
Ripe peaches, diced 2
Fat-free cream cheese 6 tablespoons
Fresh basil leaves, julienne 10
Salt 1 teaspoon
Ground black pepper 1/8 teaspoon
Olive oil 1 tablespoon
Toothpicks 24
- Fire roast red peppers over an open flame until skin blisters. Remove skin.
- Cut peppers in half and remove seeds and stem. Cut each half into three long strips.
- In a bowl, combine peaches, cream cheese, and basil. Mix until combined.
- To assemble, place peppers flat, skin-side down. Put ½ teaspoon of peach mixture on one end of each pepper slice. Roll up pepper, peach mixture will be in the center.
- Brush the rolled peppers with olive oil and season with salt and pepper. Slide a toothpick through each rolled pepper.


text:
The Biggest Loser: The Workout - Cardio Max Weight-Loss DVD
You've seen contestant on NBC's hit series "The Biggest Loser" pushed to the max and achieve amazing results - and now it's your turn at home with a cardio Max program specifically designed to support weight loss! Kick fitness into high gear as TV trainer Bob Harper challenges you to the ultimate boot camp workout designed to shed mega pounds. Then, boost your calorie-burning power with two high-intensity add-ons that can be alternated or combined for a more advanced program. Get ready to transform your body and your life. Maximum results start now!
Read MoreLess
More Details
- Format: DVD
- Rating: Not Rated
- Number of Discs: 1
- Run Time: 59 Minutes
- Region: 1
- Aspect Ratio: Widescreen
- Studio: Lions Gate
- DVD Release Date: November 30, 2010
- Audio: ENGLISH: Dolby Digital Stereo [CC]
- Director: Cal Pozo
- Genre: Exercise
- Color: Color
Maximum Results Program
Music-Only Option
- Release Date: 2010
Availability: In Stock
Ready to ship in 5-7 Business Days