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Re: BIG GAMES FOR MY FAVORITES PRO-COLLEGE 11/24-11/25!
chevy39fan wrote:Added bonus: THE RAVENS LOOSING!
...not SO fast there...
...is that a breadstick or are you just happy to see me?
Whatever goes... remember, this is a family forum
chevy39fan wrote:Added bonus: THE RAVENS LOOSING!
smoke14rulez wrote:
...not SO fast there...
chevy39fan wrote:The Steelers are waiting on Cincinnati HH! Don't worry, Ben will be back and probably Troy too by the time the Bengals play them down the road!HiddenHollow wrote:My Steelers lost... waaaaaaaaaa
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
1974 US Mint Uncirculated Coin Set
1974 US Mint Uncirculated Coin Set
Uncirculated U.S. Mint coin sets are the perfect gift for any coin collector. Give to someone as an anniversary or birthday gift they'll treasure for a lifetime. You can even join the popular tradition of starting your collection on a loved one's birth year, and continue buying mint sets to commemorate every year thereafter.
Select from the years 1959-64 or 1968-2008 and start or complete your collection today.
These complete sets of U.S. Mint coins feature uncirculated specimens in every domination for the year of issue. Each unique set represents coins minted for regular commerce by the U.S. Mint. Collectors can be assured that these coins will arrive sealed in the original U.S. Mint packaging.
The U.S. Mint began offering uncirculated mint sets for sale to collectors over 60 years ago. The number of uncirculated "business strike" coins included in each set varies from year to year. In certain years, uncirculated U.S. Mint sets contained coins that were only produced to fill these U.S. Mint sets and were not released for commerce. These select sets can offer a high value to the owner because of their quality and investment demand.
This 1974 Uncirculated U.S. Mint coin set includes 13 coins:
One of each denomination struck at the Philadelphia and Denver branches of the U.S. Mint respectively.
Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought:


text: As Good As An Offensive Player That Crawford Is, He Is Dreadfully Awful As A Defender, He Allows Guards Have Season And Career High On Him. If Crawford Scores 20 Points, He Gives 15 Points To The Opposed Guard. And Why The Hell Is Isiah Playing Him The Entire Game Until 1 Minute Left In The Fourth Quarter, Rando Looked Like A Star This Afternooon., Even As Worse As A Shooter Rando Is, He Was Hitting Jumpers. I Always Say This, Jamal Can't Play A Lick Of Defense Even If His Mother's Life Is On It. And I Hate The Shake And Back That He Does, Its Like Its Overrated, I've Seen Guards Come To The League And Go With Such Moves. He Need To Either Play Defense Or Sit His Ass Down If He Is Lacking The Ability To Play Defense.


text:
Simple in language, complex in practice.
Make no mistake, the actions you must take are simple in language, but complex in pracice. They will demand your time, your attention, and your resolve. Have patience, but also carry a sense of urgency — the clock is ticking.
Glenn Beck – Common Sense – page 106
October 25, 2009 No Comments


text:
The Filibuster
Two of your favorite guys have been in the news a lot lately. Glenn Beck
and Roger Clemens. If you had to be either one for a day who you would
you choose?
Livonia, MI
Wow. How do I even begin? I mean, both men are absolute paragons of masculinity. One man liked to stick needles in his butt on a regular basis and the other cries when he sees a bald eagle. But if I had to choose between the two and spending a day in their skin, I'd have to choose Clemens.
Here's the problem. When you spend a day as someone, you have to be able to extricate yourself from that person in the end. Clemens doesn't strike me as the type who has a whole lot going on upstairs. Being in his head is like walking down one long, empty corridor. There are doors here and there and maybe I'd get lucky enough to open the one where he throws the bat at Piazza and figure out what was really going on in that moment.
On the other hand you have Glenn Beck. Have you tried watching the guy's show? He starts on one thought, flies off on some tangent, leaps off the tangent to attempt an allusion and winds up throwing logic aside for the beautiful simplicity of ad hominem attack. Why doesn't he like Obama's health care plan? Well, because the Nazis had a health care plan.
The twists and turns inside that mind are baffling from the outside and could only be more confusing when you're right in the middle of it. If you go in there, your chances of making it out alive or at least sane are about as good as the odds that Newt Gingrich won't cheat on this wife. Or that Bill Clinton has been faithful. Yeah, that bad.
So, give me Clemens. He may not be the nicest guy. He may not be the smartest guy. But at least I can kind of figure out what he's thinking. There's a simple beauty in that.
3 Comments
History is full of these guys…… the Father Coughlin's and Joe McCarthy's of the world. In each case the people and independent news caught up with their game. What scares me now is the fact that Beck is "the news". That there is no one that can ask, "have you no decency?"
I think most people would be Clemens just to make him tell the truth, take his medicine, and just get his whole little saga over with.
'Minoring In Baseball'
There is something intrinsically repulsive about Glenn Beck before even getting to his politics and histrionics.


text:
Well done on yesterday's result. Hope you make it all the way, (that certainly would upset Red Hall). It will be fingers crossed for you lot at Fev next week from me. Although I won't be at finals day should you make it you will be able to hear me cheering you on from Shaw Cross,
2013 the year of the underdog??
Edited by muddyfunster, 16 September 2013 - 07:59 AM.


text:
Lieping Chen, MD, PhD
United Technologies Corporation Professor in Cancer Research and Professor of Immunobiology, of Dermatology and of Medicine (Medical Oncology); Co-Director, Cancer Immunology Program at Yale Cancer Center
Departments & Organizations
Cancer Center: Cancer Immunology | SPORE in Lung Cancer
Yale Combined Program in the Biological and Biomedical Sciences (BBS): Immunology: B and T Cell Effector and Memory Cell Differentiation; Consequences of an Immune Response; Infectious Disease and Host-Pathogen Interaction; Regulating the Immune Response
Office of Cooperative Research
Dr. Lieping Chen earned his medical degree from Fujian Medical School in China. After clinical training in immunology and oncology in Fujian Union Hospital and Peking Union Medical College, he earned a PhD in Pathology from Drexel University in Philadelphia and did a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Washington in Seattle. He worked as a research scientist at Bristol-Myers Squibb from 1989-1997 before he joined Mayo Clinic as an Immunology Professor from 1997-2004. He was Professor of Oncology and Dermatology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine for 7 years before he joined Yale University in 2011. He is currently the United Technologies Corporation Professor in Cancer Research, Professor of Immunobiology, Dermatology and Medicine (Medical Oncology), and Co-Director of the Cancer Immunology Program at the Yale School of Medicine.
Lieping Chen studies lymphocyte costimulation and coinhibition and their application in treating human diseases. In 1992, Dr. Chen did the first proof-of-concept study showing that manipulation of the B7-CD28 family molecules could be used for cancer immunotherapy by introducing B7-1 into tumor cells to enhance tumor immunity. This study inspired subsequent studies using antibodies targeting CTLA-4, one of the B7-CD28 family molecules, for the treatment of cancer. Dr. Chen co-discovered the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway and singularly established the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway as a target for cancer immunotherapy in 1999-2002. He initiated and help organized the first-in-man clinical trial of anti-PD-1 antibody for treating human cancer in 2006 and developed PD-L1 staining as a biomarker to predict treatment outcomes. Dr. Chen's studies have revolutionized cancer treatment. His discoveries directly led to the development of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 antibody therapy against a broad spectrum of human cancers (first approved by the FDA in 2014).
Dr. Chen's laboratory also discovered various costimulatory and coinhibitory pathways and their immunological functions and applications in human disease treatment. These pathways include 4-1BB, ICOS/B7-H2, B7-H3, B7-H4, B7-H5/CD28H, PD-1H, LIGHT/HVEM, TROY, B7-H2/CD28/CTLA-4 (human), and SALM5/HVEM. These discoveries led to the development of therapeutic agents including agonist anti-4-1BB antibody (cancer), anti-B7-H3 antibody (cancer) anti-B7-H4 antibody (cancer) and B7-H4Ig fusion protein (autoimmune diseases) which are currently in clinical trials.
Dr. Chen has published more than 300 papers, reviews, book chapters and has edited two books. His work in the discovery of the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway in cancer therapy was cited as the #1 breakthrough of the years by Science magazine in 2013. He has received several awards and professional recognitions, including the William B. Coley Award (2014) and the AAI-Steinman Award (2016).
Education & Training
|Drexel University (1989)
|Beijing Union Medical College, Beijing, China, Immunology (1986)
|Fujian Medical College (1982)
|Postdoctoral fellow
|University of Washington
|Beijing Union Medical College
|Intern and Resident
|Fujian Union Hospital
Honors & Recognition
AAI-Steinman AwardAmerican Association of Immunologists (2016)
William B. Coley AwardCancer Research Institute (2014)
Inaugural United Technologies Corporation Endowed Chair ProfessorYale University (2013)
Honorary Master of ArtsYale University (2012)
American Cancer Society Research ScholarAmerican Cancer Society (2000)
Clinical Investigator AwardCancer Research Institute (1998)
Presidential AwardBristol-Myers Squibb Co. (1996)


text:
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#150 - 03/15/00 01:13 PM Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/14/00
Posts: 2
Loc: USA
I have for many years been trying to learn the origin of the phrase 86'd (eighty-sixed), used as a verb to describe being banned, usually from an establishment such as a place where food or drink is served. Help would be appreciated. Thanks.
#151 - 03/15/00 01:36 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 6511
Loc: lower upstate New York
I was told by a NYC tour guide that Number 84 Bleecker Street (??? some street in the Village; I've forgotten now) was a rather (in)famous speakeasy during Prohibition. Whenever cops pounded on the front door, the owner would yell "Eighty-six it!", meaning for patrons to run out the back door down a secret corridor to adjoining number 86, which had both hiding places as well as a hidden back exit leading onto a small side alley. This could be apocryphal, of course. You know how tour guides are.
#152 - 03/15/00 02:23 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 2
Loc: MA
Actually, I think this comes from Radio. My father was a HAM radio operator. They had codes to represent concepts to abbreviate. This was especially valuable for Morse Code. 86 was the code for "Good-bye" and 10-4 was all right.
#153 - 03/15/00 05:52 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 18
Dictionary of Contemporary Usage says 86 is a term in bartender's slang. To 86 a person is to indicate--usually to a bouncer--that a person will not be served anything more and may have to be evicted from the premises . . .
#154 - 03/15/00 10:25 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 6511
Loc: lower upstate New York
Ham radio operators got 86 from a previous source. All the 10 codes existed previously, too. It'll be fun to see what other etymologies we get for this term.
#155 - 03/17/00 04:16 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/17/00
Posts: 1
Loc: Northern Virginia
Some thirty-odd years ago, I was told the term originated in the bayside bars of San Francisco. The booze was usually high proof, and when the patrons got too rowdy, they were "86'ed" by giving them only the lower proof stuff. Probably apocryphal, but a good story anyway.
#156 - 03/17/00 07:21 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 6511
Loc: lower upstate New York
San Francisco and New York. Two apocryphal cities ;-)
#157 - 03/23/00 04:51 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 6
Loc: Short Hills NJ
I do not know the origin of the word, but I had thought the meaning somewhat different. "86",
as I understand it, is a verb that means "discard". "86 the veal parmesan" means "throw the
veal parmesan out"; it's no good.
#158 - 03/23/00 05:08 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 03/15/00
Posts: 6511
Loc: lower upstate New York
Yep, by extension, to "86" something nowadays generally means to throw it out. But I think the origins are as mentioned in previous posts. Pity "23-Skiddoo" hasn't had as long as life as its "86" brother, mutations in meaning notwithstanding.
#159 - 03/26/00 01:49 PM Re: Eighty-sixed? Help, please.
Registered: 03/14/00
Posts: 2
Loc: USA
Thank you all for helping, though there seems to be no definitive answer, just several plausible ones. Perhaps more than one of the given provenances of the expression are each true in themselves and have leant strength to each other over time.
Does not much of what communicates act in an ad-hoc way, delivering its precise instantaneous meaning as much from present context as from dictionary definition?
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text:
State Engineering University of Armenia (SEUA) and Synopsys Armenia CJSC announce 2013 2014 academic year contest for Bachelor study in Microelectronic circuits and systems interfaculty chair.
Students who successfully pass the first two stages are allowed to participate in third one.
Selection is based on the results of the third stage.
Applications must be submitted until July 4, 2013 to Synopsys Armenia Educational Department (Arshakunyats 39/7, Yerevan). Selection procedure will take place on July 8, 2013 (general interview and foreign language) and on July 9 (interview on basic knowledge in specialty) at 1000 am at Synopsys Armenia CJSC.
For additional information please call (+37410) 49 22 93.
Announcement poster in Armenian


text:
Stocks for the Long Term: Why Prospects Are Rosy
by Dale Domian and William Reichenstein
You already know the bad news: U.S. stocks as measured by the S&P 500 lost almost 50% from the October 2007 peak though November 18, 2008. Most foreign stock indexes were off by a little more than 50% this year.
The good news is that based on today's depressed prices, long-term stock prospects appear above average.
In this article, we take a look at some of the evidence that supports a rosy multi-year stock outlook, and provide a framework for applying these forecasts.
Without a crystal ball, can investors get a rough "forecast" of long-term stock returns?
In theory, at least, the answer is "yes."
The theory behind long-term stock predictability is relatively simple. It says that the stock market's equity risk premium—the additional expected return investors demand before they are willing to assume the additional risk of investing in stocks compared to Treasury securities—varies through time:
- When the equity risk premium is above average, long-run stock returns will probably beat Treasuries by healthy margins;
- When the equity risk premium is below average, additional long-term returns on stock compared to Treasuries will probably be below average, and may be negative.
For example, one common model used to put a value on the market is the dividend discount model. The simplest version of this model assumes all earnings will be paid out as dividends, and growth in dividends and earnings will be zero. The model implies that the market's dividend yield (year-ahead dividends divided by today's price) would equal the risk-free rate (as measured by a Treasury yield) plus the equity risk premium investors require for investing in stocks; and because earnings are assumed to be paid out in dividends, it implies that the beginning earnings yield (year-ahead forecasted earnings divided by today's price) would equal the risk-free rate plus the equity risk premium. In short—it implies the market's dividend yield and earnings yield vary directly with long-term stock returns: When the equity risk premium is high, everything else the same, today's earnings yield and dividend yield should be high; when the equity risk premium is low, today's earnings yield and dividend yield will tend to be low.
Of course, the key in this model is the equity risk premium, and unfortunately, investors cannot directly observe the equity risk premium. However, investors can observe the market's earnings yield and dividend yield. And, as the model suggests, they will tend to be high when the equity risk premium is high, and vice versa.
So—in theory at least—the beginning level of the earnings yield (which is simply the inverse of the market's forward price-earnings ratio) and dividend yield should have some ability to project the additional returns on stocks compared to Treasury securities. Furthermore, any variable that varies with the unobservable equity risk premium should have some ability to project returns above Treasuries.
Historical Evidence
There is some historical evidence that implies long-term stock returns can be gleaned based on the beginning levels of the earnings yield (or its inverse, the price-earnings ratio) and the dividend yield. Furthermore, studies indicate that other variables appear to have some predictive ability, including the Baa-Aaa yield spread and forecasts based on Value Line predictions.
Table 1 summarizes these relationships.
|Predictive Variable
|Long-Term Stock Returns
|High E/P ratio (earnings yield)
|Good Prospects
|Low P/E (price-earnings ratio)
|Good Prospects
|Wide Baa-Aaa spread
|Good Prospects
|High Value Line equity risk premium*
|Good Prospects
|*An estimate of the stock market's equity risk premium based on predictions from Value Line Investment Survey.
To put it simply, studies indicate that good long-term stock prospects should be associated with the following:
- High beginning levels of earnings yield or low beginning levels of price-earnings ratios;
- Wide beginning levels of Baa-Aaa credit spread, where Baa is the yield on triple-B bonds (the lowest level of investment-grade bonds), and Aaa is the yield on the highest-rated triple-A corporate bonds;
- High beginning levels of Value Line equity risk premium, which is an estimate of the equity risk premium based on Value Line Investment Survey predictions.
(Although theory suggests that the beginning level of the market's dividend yield should be positively related to future stock returns, we did not include this predictive variable in this article due to reasons discussed in the accompanying box.)
For this article, we examined three specific measures that have shown promise in terms of projecting where long-term stock returns may head relative to Treasuries. Keep in mind, however, that the research shows only a limited ability of these measures to "predict" long-term returns.
Shiller's P/E
First, we took a look at Shiller's P/E (price-earnings ratio). Robert Shiller is a leading scholar who wrote "Irrational Exuberance," a book on the New York Times Bestseller's list that was first published in January 2000 (Princeton University Press). It argued that the stock market was in an unsustainable bubble. The stock market peaked in March 2000. In the second edition, which was published in 2005, Shiller concluded that there was a bubble in the U.S. residential real estate market. In short, his predictions have been remarkably accurate. The numerator of his P/E model is the current real (or inflation-adjusted) level of the S&P 500; the denominator is the average real earnings for the past 10 years. The use of a 10-year average for earnings is designed to better reflect movements in the market's normal earnings, where normal earnings are the level of earnings that excludes the impact of the business cycle.
Figure 1 graphs the beginning level of the earnings yield, that is, the inverse of Shiller's P/E, and 10-year ahead real returns on the S&P 500 for the 1880s through today. The return scale shows the cumulative 10-year real return, so 2 denotes a 200% 10-year cumulative real return. In theory, the earnings yield should move directly with future long-term returns. Figure 1 confirms this expectation. In general, low levels of earnings yield (high levels of Shiller's P/E) are associated with low future real returns and vice versa.
This forecasting model is not perfect; market risk still remains. However, there has been a persistent strong positive correlation between the beginning level of earnings yield and subsequent 10-year real returns.
Shiller's P/E has averaged 16.3 since 1881 and 19.3 for the past 50 years. In December 1999, Shiller's P/E was 44.2, a record high, so his model predicted poor real returns for 2000–2009. Although this 10-year horizon is not over, subsequent returns have been disappointing.
Shiller's Web site and Figure 1 only includes data through August 2008, when Shiller's P/E was 20.67, which corresponds to an earnings yield of 0.048. In the December 8 edition of the Wall Street Journal, Shiller said his P/E was at 13.4 in November, which corresponds to an earnings yield of 0.075. This is the lowest P/E in 21 years, and the first time it has fallen below 14 since 1988.
The Baa-Aaa Spread
Another well-respected research study (by Profs. Eugene Fama and Kenneth R. French) concerns the yield spread between Baa and Aaa bonds. Historically, Fama and French conclude that the Baa-Aaa credit spread has shown some ability to predict long-horizon stock returns. The logic is that this spread moves with the unobservable equity risk premium. Therefore, when the Baa-Aaa spread is large, the unobservable equity risk premium tends to be large, and future long-term stock returns are usually generous—and vice versa.
Using monthly averaged yields since 1968, Figure 2 graphs this spread and the subsequent five-year cumulative real S&P 500 returns.
Figure 2 suggests, at least to us and some researchers, that the Baa-Aaa spread has some ability to predict long-term returns. When the spread has been low, subsequent five-year returns have tended to be low, and vice versa. The spread was usually less than 1% when subsequent five-year real returns were negative. When the spread exceeded 2% in much of 1980 through 1982, subsequent real returns were strong. However, this spread failed to predict the dramatic bull market of the late 1990s and subsequent crash. We attribute this failure, at least in part, to the irrational pricing at that time; that is, the model is based on the idea of rational valuation, but the level of the stock market was not rational in the late 1990s. Nevertheless, it reinforces the limits of any model.
The November 2008 spread was 3.07%, which is its highest level since 1933. It suggests well-above-average returns.
The Value Line Predictor
The last predictive variable we call the Value Line predictor. Each week, Value Line Investment Survey presents the median projected year-ahead dividend yield and median three- to five-year price appreciation potential for the approximately 1,700 stocks in its main sample. Interpreting the projected median price three to five years hence as the price in four years, we estimate an average annual capital gain. Adding the Value Line dividend yield to this Value Line capital gain gives us the projected total return. Subtracting a Treasury bill yield produces an estimate of the market's equity risk premium—what we call the Value Line equity risk premium. Prior studies by one of these authors (Reichenstein, along with Prof. Rich in 1993) concluded that the Value Line equity risk premium has some ability to predict excess returns on the S&P 500 for the six-quarter-ahead forecast horizon.
Figure 3 graphs the actual and projected excess returns where excess returns are the additional returns on the S&P 500 above Treasury bills.
The six-quarter-ahead forecast horizon is much shorter than the 10-year horizon for Shiller's P/E and the five-year horizon for the Baa-Aaa spread. Therefore, it should not be surprising that the model is far from perfect. For example, it failed to predict the 1973–1974 bear market associated with the Arab oil embargo, but it predicted the market rebound in 1975. It estimated returns that were too low when the stock bubble was forming in the late 1990s and estimated returns that were too high during the subsequent bursting of the bubble in 2000–2002. Furthermore, the Value Line equity risk premium may have an optimistic bias, since its predicted returns usually exceed future returns. This should not be surprising since financial analysts (in this case, those at Value Line) tend to be optimistic.
Nevertheless, Figure 3 suggests that the Value Line equity risk premium measure has some ability to forecast returns.
When reading the graph, the last observation for actual S&P 500 excess returns is for March 2007, and it denotes the actual excess return of –20.4% from April 2007 through September 2008; at that time, the Value Line equity risk premium was 16.12%.
As of November 21, the Value Line equity risk premium indicator suggested that stocks would beat Treasury bills by almost 30% per year for the next 18 months.
What Actions Do They Imply?
What do these rosy stock prospects mean for investors?
This section discusses some of the implications. First, it begins by discussing how the average investor manages his money. Then, we discuss two better strategies.
Average Investor
The average investor buys stocks at or near the end of a bull market and sells at or near the end of a bear markets. He buys high and sells low. This was shown in one study that examined the timing ability of equity fund investors. For 1991–2004, the average investor lost 1.56% per year compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. On average, investors buy stocks after bull markets such as in 1999 and sell stocks after bear markets such as today.
We suspect that many investors let emotions rule the day, which causes them to follow this buy-high-and-sell-low strategy. It is tough to be objective, especially in bear markets.
Fixed-Weight Strategy
A fixed-weight strategy is one good strategy. With this strategy, an investor selects his or her strategic asset allocation—that is, the long-run normal asset allocation. For example, suppose an individual selects a 60% stocks and 40% bond strategic asset allocation. Periodically, perhaps once a year, he rebalances his portfolio back to this 60%/40% strategic mix.
By its nature, this fixed-weight strategy is contrarian. After a good year, the investor must sell stocks and buy bonds. After a bad year, the investor must sell bonds and buy stocks. From our experience, most investors find it more difficult to buy stocks after a bad year than to sell stocks after a good year. One advantage of the fixed-weight strategy is it helps the investor overcome inertia. No one knows whether the recent market trend will continue. So, it is never clear whether we should reduce stock exposure after a good year or increase stock exposure after a bad year.
In the absence of clarity, many investors do nothing. The fixed-weight strategy requires the discipline to rebalance—that is, to overcome inertia.
Tactical Asset Allocation
Tactical asset allocation is a variant of a fixed-weight strategy. It says investors should periodically rebalance their portfolios. But, instead of always rebalancing back to their strategic asset allocation, they should rebalance back to an asset allocation that may vary slightly from the strategic asset allocation. For example, someone with a strategic asset allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds may allow their target stock allocation to vary from 50% to 70% based on long-run market prospects.
In practice, tactical asset allocation is more contrarian than strategic asset allocation. After a period of strong performance, tactical asset allocation may require this investor to not only reduce his stock exposure but also to reduce it below the 60% strategic weight. After a period of poor performance, tactical asset allocation may require this investor to not only increase his stock exposure but also to increase it above the 60% strategic weight.
Tactical asset allocation is not an easy strategy to follow. In the second week of October, one of the authors rebalanced his portfolio back to his strategic weights. The next week, he increased his stock exposure to 5% above his strategic weight. The latter was not easy. His objective side looked at the objective evidence of long-horizon stock prospects discussed above and concluded that the higher stock exposure was warranted. But his emotional side looked at the dramatic losses incurred in the prior weeks and year and wanted to head for the exit or, at least, await further evidence.
Tactical asset allocation may not be easy to follow after a period of good returns. At the end of 1997 after three straight years of over 23% returns on the S&P 500, Shiller's P/E was above average at 33.0, which suggested below-average stock prospects. Suppose an investor reduced her stock exposure at that time. In 1998, the S&P 500 had another stellar year clocking returns of 28.6%. At the end of 1998, this price-earnings ratio was 38.8, which suggested even worse long-horizon prospects. So, she further reduced her stock exposure. In 1999, the S&P 500 earned 21%, some of which our intrepid investor lost due to her tactical bets. Based on the market's price-earnings ratio and the other predictive factors, long-horizon stock prospects looked even worse. What should she do?
After the fact, the answer is clear—she should stick to the tactical strategy and sell stocks until her stock allocation is below her strategic stock allocation. Although the answer is clear, after the fact, we know of investors that lost faith and either failed to reduce their stock exposure at all or only sold enough stocks to reduce their stock allocation to their strategic allocation—right before the stock bubble burst.
What NOT to Do Now
We emphasize two things that investors should not do now. First, do not bail out of the stock market now. Recall that the average investor buys when prices are high and sells when prices are low. We can all agree that that is a lousy way to manage money.
Suppose your strategic asset allocation is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If stocks lose 33% and fixed-income assets are flat then your new asset allocation is 50%/50%. The market has already reduced your stock exposure.
Bailing out of the stock market would be an example of market timing. Successful market timing requires two good decisions: when to exit the market and when to reenter. There is scant evidence that anyone can consistently make one successful call, much less two.
Second, do not stop investing, and consider increasing your savings. Conversations with investment professionals suggest that many individuals are reducing or ceasing contributions to their tax-advantaged retirement plans—e.g., 401(k)s and Roth 401(k)s. A professor told one of us that she was stopping contributions because the market was losing her money faster than she could contribute to it. This strategy only makes sense if she does not plan to eat in retirement.
The reality is that her nest egg has shrunk, but her retirement plans probably have not changed. No one can control market returns, but she can control the amount she saves each year and her asset allocation. She should face reality and accept her responsibility to save for her retirement. Because of the bear market, she probably needs to increase the amount she saves—or reduce her retirement expectations.
What You SHOULD Do
We provide separate advice for individuals still working and for those who have retired from the workforce.
Still Working
If you are still working, we recommend that you rebalance your portfolio back to your strategic asset allocation. If you never rebalance, you are guaranteed to have the lowest stock allocation when the market hits its bottom. That does not make sense.
Second, you might consider a slight tactical bet—that is, raising your stock allocation perhaps 5% to 10% above your strategic allocation. Remember, the evidence suggests higher long-term returns. It does not guarantee higher long-term returns, and the research is silent on stock prospects for horizons of one year or less.
Third, if circumstances warrant, consider increasing the amount you save each year. The most tax-advantaged savings vehicles continue to be tax-deferred accounts like the 401(k), SEP-IRA, and traditional IRA and tax-exempt accounts like the Roth IRA and Roth 401(k). So, save all you can afford to save in these most tax-favored savings accounts.
Already Retired
If you have retired from the workforce, then you no longer have the option to save more. We do, however, recommend that you rebalance your asset allocation back to your strategic asset allocation.
Recent retirees may consider a slight tactical tilt. Recent retirees have a longer life expectancy than they may think. A 65-year-old female has a life expectancy of about 20 years and at least one partner of a 65-year-old couple will probably live 24 years or more. For longer horizons, stocks usually beat bonds. As discussed in my article "Will Your Savings Last? What the Withdrawal Rate Studies Show," (July 2008 AAII Journal; available at AAII.com) the withdrawal rate literature suggests that, to minimize the longevity risk (the risk of running out of money in their lifetimes), retirees should have at least 50% stock exposures. Although we are not necessarily advocating that large a stock exposure for all recent retirees, a healthy dose of stocks appears necessary to minimize longevity risk.
We encourage older retirees to rebalance back to their strategic asset allocation. That allocation may contain a relatively small stock exposure. But they should want some stock exposure since an all-bond portfolio is not the lowest risk portfolio. And it usually pays to rebalance when stocks are low. Retirees with small nest eggs for their life expectancies and limited risk tolerances would probably not want to consider a tactical bet. But some retirees have larger nest eggs than they will likely need. Part of their nest eggs may be savings that are intended for their children. They may wish to not only increase their stock allocations back to their strategic targets, but to further increase their stock allocations by taking slight tactical bets.
No one needs to tell investors that stock returns have been lousy over the last year. Indeed, stock returns have been lousy for this decade.
The good news is that long-term stock prospects appear relatively generous from here.
Today's market price-earnings ratios, the Baa-Aaa credit spread, and Value Line Investment Survey forecasts all suggest that today's long-horizon stock prospects appear above average.
None of these variables singly or in combination can guarantee strong long-term returns. But they do suggest above-average prospects. Furthermore, these variables' predictive ability is based on the theory that they should signal an above-average equity risk premium. Based on the fear in today's market, it seems reasonable to conclude that today's equity risk premium is high.
We encourage investors to rebalance their portfolios back to their strategic asset allocations. If your normal asset allocation is 60% stock and 40% bonds then you should rebalance back to this strategic mix. This means selling bonds and buying stocks. If you have the willingness and ability to bear additional risk, then you might consider an even more contrarian strategy by rebalancing back to a stock exposure that is perhaps 5% to 10% above the strategic stock weight.
We encourage investors not to bail out of the stock market. Historically, the average investor sells at or near market lows and buys at or near market highs. Such moves often occur when individuals let their emotions rule the day. Furthermore, individuals who are still working might consider increasing the amount they save each year. The poor returns of the past year and this decade may mean that they will have to increase their savings to meet their retirement goals.
Additional Reading: References for studies discussed here appear at the end of the on-line version of this article at AAII.com.
Dividend Yields and Market Returns
Historically, the market's dividend yield has also shown an ability to partially predict long-term stock returns. However, in our opinion, the dividend yield may be a less reliable predictor of future returns because other factors may influence the dividend yield, and we therefore did not focus on it in this article.
For example, for the past two decades, the average U.S. firm has reduced its dividend payout ratio—that is, the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends. Many firms subscribe to the theory that many investors do not want cash dividends with their associated tax bills, and instead would prefer to see the dividends reduced and the earnings reinvested in the firm or used to fund share repurchases. The lowering several years ago of the maximum federal tax rate on qualified dividends to 15% may have reversed the long-term trend toward lower payouts.
Despite its limitation, today's (November 20, 2008) S&P 500 dividend yield is at its highest level since 1991—another suggestion that long-term stock prospects are above average.
William Reichenstein , CFA, holds the Pat and Thomas R. Powers Chair in Investment Management at Baylor University and is head of research at Social Security Solutions, Inc .
Donald from MD posted over 5 years ago:
Will AAII be publishing the three indicators discussed in this article?
Joesph from PA posted over 5 years ago:
I am a relatively new member to aaii. Still exploring and learning from the writings and all that the web site has to offer.
Same question as above. Will aaii be publishing the 3 indicators discussed in the article each quarter? Or, will aaii direct readers as to how we can review a summary of the selected tables/charts with the data offered?
Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 5 years ago:
These indicators are not included the datafeeds we receive. Robert Shiller maintains a website with his information at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
The bond yields are available at many financial websites, such as Bloomberg.
I would check Value Line's website for its indicator.


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Best Pantech phones
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Pantech BurstCompare8 reviewPantech Burst is an LTE enabled Android smartphone powered by a 1.5GHz dual-core processor, and its front is occupied by a 4-inch Super AMOLED display with 480 by 800 pixels of resolution. The 5-megapixel camera on its back is backed up by an LED flash and can capture 720p video, while the front-facing one will come in handy when you feel like having a video chat. You also get 16 gigs of on-board storage and a 1,650mAh battery.+ View Specs
8Pantech Burst
Pantech ElementCompare8 reviewThe Pantech Element is a waterproof Android 3.2 tablet that sports a 1.5GHz dual-core CPU, 4G LTE connectivity, 5-megapixel camera and a 2-megapixel unit for video calls.+ View Specs
8Pantech Element
Pantech LaserCompare8 reviewPantech Laser is advertised as the "thinnest full sliding keyboard device AT&T has ever offered" with a thickness of 9.95 mm – which is around 0.39 inches. Other features include a 3.1" AMOLED touchscreen, 3-megapixel camera, social networking with AT&T's Social Net app, and AT&T Navigator.+ View Specs
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Pantech PN-820Compare8 reviewPantech's clamshell Smartphone runs on Windows Mobile 5 and operates in dual-band CDMA/EV-DO networks. It is relatevely small phone with retractable antenna, two color displays and full smartphone functionality+ View Specs
8Pantech PN-820
Pantech DiscoverCompare7.5 reviewThe specs of the Pantech Discover are nothing to sneeze at, mirroring your world on a 4.8" HD screen, powered by a 1.5 GHz Snapdragon S4 Pro, and backed by a 2,100 mAh battery. The 12.6 MP rear camera, 2 MP front-facer and dual speakers round up the goods, and we even get a microSD slot for storage expansion in addition to the 16 GB of internal memory, so all is well with the world.+ View Specs
7.5Pantech Discover
Pantech FlexCompare7.5 reviewthe Pantech Flex aka the P8010 is equipped with a 4.3 display, Android 4.0, 8MP camera on the back with an LED flash and a dual-core 1.5GHz processor. Aside from that it comes with all the benefits of the smartphone platform that powers it.+ View Specs
7.5Pantech Flex
Pantech BreakoutCompare7.5 reviewThe Pantech Breakout is an Android 2.3 smartphone with a 4-inch WVGA capacitive touchscreen display, 5-megapixe autofocus camera with 720P video capture, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 3.0 and a 1GHz processor.+ View Specs
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Pantech Pursuit P9020Compare7.5 reviewPantech Pursuit P9020 suppors a range of AT&T-specific services like AT&T Navigator, AT&T Radio, YPmobile and AppCenter. Other features include 3G, Bluetooth, GPS and microSD slot, touch sensitive screen and full, side-sliding QWERTY keyboard.+ View Specs
7.5Pantech Pursuit P9020
Pantech ImpactCompare7.5 reviewThe Pantech Impact P7000 is a side-opening clamshell, sporting a full QWERTY keyboard and an external OLED display. While closed, it can be used for simple tasks such as dialing a phone number with the touch-sensitive numeric keypad.+ View Specs
7.5Pantech Impact
Pantech MarauderCompare7 reviewPantech Marauder is yet another LTE-powered offering for Verizon. The smartphone features a physical QWERTY keyboard and 5MP camera, but more importantly, it'll has LTE and run on ICS.+ View Specs
7Pantech Marauder
Pantech CrossoverCompare7 reviewThe Pantech Crossover is a side-slider smartphone with QWERTY keyboard running Android 2.2. It has 3.1" touchscreen, 3MP camera, 600MHz processor, Wi-Fi, and supports up to 32GB microSD memory cards.+ View Specs
7Pantech Crossover
Pantech Breeze IICompare7 reviewJust like its predecessor, Pantech Breeze II is a basic flip style handset that features a 1.3-megapixel camera, 3G, video capture, Bluetooth, speakerphone, microSD card support up to 32GB in capacity, and an external display.+ View Specs
7Pantech Breeze II
Pantech LinkCompare7 reviewThe Pantech Link is a slim, full QWERTY device with features such as Mobile Email, instant messaging, AT&T Mobile Share, AT&T Social Net, AT&T Navigator.+ View Specs
7Pantech Link
Pantech Matrix ProCompare7 reviewPantech Matrix Pro is a dual-slider phone that opens in portrait mode for numeric keypad and in landscape for full QWERTY. It runs on Windows Mobile 6.1 Standard OS and features 3G support, 2-megapixel camera, QVGA display and GPS.+ View Specs
7Pantech Matrix Pro
Pantech SlateCompare7 reviewPantech Slate is said to be the world's thinnest device with a QWERTY keypad. It is a quad-band GSM and features 1.3MP camera and Bluetooth.+ View Specs
7Pantech Slate
Pantech MatrixCompare7 reviewPantech's Matrix is equipped with a 1.3 megapixel camera, and supports quad-band frequencies for GSM/EDGE and dual band for 3G speeds. The phone is also complimented with a microSD slot, MP3 player, XM radio and AT&T Navigator.+ View Specs
7Pantech Matrix
Pantech EaseCompare6.5 reviewPantech Ease offers the convenience of a touchscreen while focusing on making the experience of text messaging easier on just about everyone. The handset offers two modes that plays to the strengths of different users. The Easy Mode will allow older adults or senior citizens who aren't as in-tune with cell phones to fit right in as it presents a simple interface with finger friendly sized icons to make it easier to navigate. On top of that, there are some neat luxuries packed on like the ability for the phone to read out text messages and announce incoming callers. The Pantech Ease features a healthy sized 3.2" touchscreen, landscape style QWERTY keyboard, 2-megapixel camera, 7.2Mbps HSPA, pedometer, and GPS.+ View Specs
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Pantech RevealCompare6.5 reviewThe Pantech Reveal has a numeric keypad on top with a QWERTY keyboard on bottom. It features 3G connectivity and supports AT&T Navigator.+ View Specs
6.5Pantech Reveal
Pantech PerceptionCompare6 reviewPantech Perception is an Android smartphone for Verizon offering LTE connectivity. The handset comes with a 1.5GHz dual-core Snapdragon S4 system-on-a-chip doing all the number crunching. On its front we have a display of respectable size sporting a resolution of 1280 by 720 pixels.+ View Specs
6Pantech Perception
Pantech CruxCompare6 reviewThe Pantech Crux features a 3" LCD touchscreen with 240x400 pixels of resolution, and a 3MP camera without a flash, but with a dedicated shutter button. It has one touch access to social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter and MySpace, as well as Verizon Navigator software for the built-in GPS chip.+ View Specs
6Pantech Crux
Pantech JestCompare6 reviewPantech Jest is a CDMA slider with QWERTY keyboard. It is a feature phone that emphasizes on messaging and social networking through a dedicated My Messaging key. Navigation is done with an optical directional pad, and the camera is the meager 2MP. It targets the teenage crowd and its tendency to write insane amounts of texts, IMs and status updates. It looks well suited for that with its youthful looks, slider keyboard in black and orange, and dedicated buttons for messaging, music and snapshots.+ View Specs
6Pantech Jest
Pantech PocketCompare5.5 reviewTHe Pantech Pocket is an Android smartphone with a 4-inch SVGA display, 5-megapixel camera, 4G data connectivity, 600MB of internal memory, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.+ View Specs
5.5Pantech Pocket
Pantech SwiftCompare5 reviewThe Pantech is side-sliding messaging phone with a full QWERTY keyboard, 2.8-inch color touchscreen display, Bluetooth, multimedia players, web browser and navigation.+ View Specs
5Pantech Swift
Pantech Pursuit IICompare4 reviewPantech Pursuit II follow the steps of the first Pursuit released last year, but this time it comes running the Brew Mobile Platform. Other than that it remains almost the same specs wise. 2.8" QVGA touch screen, 2MP camera, QWERTY keyboard and GPS.+ View Specs
4Pantech Pursuit II
Pantech VybeCompareThe Pantech Vybe is a side sliding feature phone with a 3.2-inch QVGA display, Bluetooth, multimedia players, 3-megapixel camera and a full QWERTY keyboard.+ View Specs
Pantech Vybe
Pantech Vega Iron 2CompareThe Vega Iron 2 features Qualcomm Snapdragon 801 heart, a 5.3-inch 1080p display, 13MP rear camera, 2.1MP front-facing camera, 3GB of RAM, 32GB / 64 GB of internal memory, and a 3,220 mAh batter. The handset runs Android 4.4 KitKat.+ View Specs
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Pantech Breeze IVCompareThe Pantech Breeze IV is a clamshell feature phone with a 3-inch color display, 3-megapixel camera with flash, Bluetooth, multimedia players and all of the regular organizing features.+ View Specs
Pantech Breeze IV
Pantech RenueComparePantech Renueis a quick messaging device with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard and rugged design made from 67% recyclable materials. The phone uses Qualcomm's BREW Mobile platform and features a QVGA touch screen, 3MP camera and microSD memory card slot.+ View Specs
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Pantech HotshotCompareThe Pantech Hotshot is a candybar phone with a 3.2-inch touscreen display, 3.2-megapixel camera, web browser, instant messaging, organizer, VZ navigator and is carried by Verizon Wireless.+ View Specs
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Pantech Link IICompareThe Pantech Link II is a candybar messaging phone available through AT&T. It features a 2.4-inch color display, 2-megapixel camera, multimedia players, instant messaging, email, web browser and Bluetooth.+ View Specs
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Pantech Jest 2ComparePantech Jest 2 is the follow-up of the Pantech Jest, but except the global roaming capabilities the new model brings nothing groundbreaking to the table. It comes with a smaller 2.4" display, 2MP camera, QWERTY keyboard and microSDHC card support.+ View Specs
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Pantech Onza P7050ComparePantech Onza P7050 is believed to be an upcoming Android smartphone with 3MP camera for AT&T.+ View Specs
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Pantech Breeze IIICompareThe Pantech Breeze III is a budget clamshell cell phone available through AT&T. It features a 1.3-megapixel camera, Bluetooth, music player and a 2.2-inch display.+ View Specs
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Pantech CaperComparePantech Caper is a basic CDMA phone with QWERTY keyboard dedicated to messaging. It has 2.2" TFT display, 1.3MP camera, e-mail support and Bluetooth.+ View Specs
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Pantech C630ComparePantech C630 is a quad-band GSM candybar featuring 262k color TFT display, 1.3 MP camera, stereo Bluetooth, microSD slot for memory, MP3 player and Speakerphone.+ View Specs
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Best Pantech phones


text:
Hello Sticky Password,
is there a way to support system environment variables to run applications?
I ask because i set a variable to the root of my usb stick, where i start my SP4 and all my application like filezilla and others as well. so when the variable will be used i can my applications with the run link.
For now i tested it and i wont do the job.
Thanks for your answers
p.s. maybe relative paths will do the job as well, if they where easier to implement.


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The first ever Knotfest is set for August 17 and 18, 2012 in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Minneapolis, Minnesota, respectively. The line-up includes headliners Slipknot with Deftones, Serj Tankian, Lamb of God, Machine Head, Cannibal Corpse, The Dillinger Escape Plan, The Urge, Prong, Gojura, and more. Set times for the two shows are below.
August 17, 2012 – Council Bluffs, Iowa (Mid-America Motor Complex)
Doors: 2:00 PM
Main Stage
Slipknot: 9:30PM-11:00PM
Deftones: 7:20PM-8:20PM
Serj Tankian: 5:25PM-6:15PM
Prong: 3:55PM-4:35PM
Second Stage
Lamb of God 8:25PM-9:25PM
Machine Head: 6:20PM-7:15PM
The Urge: 4:40PM-5:20PM
Dirtfedd: 3:20PM-3:50PM
August 18, 2012 – Minneapolis, MN (Somerset Amphitheater)
Doors: 1:30 PM
Main Stage
Slipknot: 10:20PM-12:00PM
Deftones: 8:10PM-9:10PM
Serj Tankian: 6:10PM-7:00PM
Dillinger Escape Plan: 4:30PM-5:10PM
Second Stage
Lamb of God: 9:15PM-10:15PM
Machine Head: 7:05PM-8:05PM
Cannibal Corpse: 5:15PM-6:05PM
Prong : 3:45PM-4:25PM
Gojira: 3:00PM-3:30PM
Can't make it to either date? No problem! Knot Fest teamed up with TODOCAST and Event View Live to stream "SLIPKNOT Live at Knotfest" starting Saturday, August 18. To reserve and purchase, visit: http://www.EventViewLive.com/. Fans all over the world have 30 days to watch the show.
For more information head over to http://www.Knotfest.com.