text:
Kuroda-san: Sending Prayers your way. God Bless.
Kuroda-san: Sending prayers your way for a speedy recovery. God Bless.
This is what happened:
Hiroki Kuroda who is alled Hero by his teamates was cruising with a two-hit shutout through five innings and a 3-0 Dodgers lead when he was hit on the head by a Rusty Ryal line drive in the bottom of the sixth inning of Saturday night's game with the Arizona D-backs, and after receiving aid on the mound, was taken to St. Joseph's Hospital.
Here is an update on his condition:
According to the D-Backs post game show, Stan Conte just reported that the cat scan on Hiroki was negative and there is no damage. He will spend the night in the hospital and will hopefully be okay. Conte also said that as soon as Hudson reached Kuroda on the mound Kuroda asked if anyone had caught the ball!
this is very encouraging!
Sending prayers and thoughts to you Kuroda-san for a speedy recovery.
It was very scary watching it on tv. I was just saying "OMG, OMG" and I just started praying. We lost the game with our closer Jonathan Broxton giving up two homeruns in the 9th but the game is not important at this time.
This brought memories when I was at Dodger Stadium and Isshii got hit the same way.
Should pitchers wear helmets?
20 Comments
Yep, Hiroki Kuroda should be fine, I think David Wright is going through the same thing after he was hit in the head by a Matt Cain pitch. This is why baseball can be dangerous at time.
Matthew Tang
So glad to hear the scan was negative and Kuroda will be OK. It must have been terrifying to watch live.
I hope he will be fine. David's got hit by a pitch. Kuroda by a line drive. I think there is a big differnce on speed there. It was very scary watching that.
Yes Jane, I just kept saying "OMG, OMG!" watching him on the ground. They put towels under his head and I though it was because he was bleeding but they just wanted to elevate his head. Thanks!
Emma – it is encouraging news about Kuroda. Both the injury to him and David Wright were scary. Players have had their careers (and worse) ended by being hit by a pitcher. And surprisingly – there is often little difference between the speed at which a ball is thrown and the speed at which is comes off the bat. This has to do with the type of pitch thrown, the speed thrown, the location of the pitch, weight of the bat and the speed at which the batter swings. There are really long and complicated physics equations to figure it all out. Here in Massachusetts were have the facility that certifies the bats & balls used in the majors.
Kuroda is back at the hotel. Thank God both Wright and Kuroda seem to be OK. I was remembering that pitcher in the minor league who died when he got hit on the head.
I was supposed to be in Arizona this weekend but cancelled at the last minute. Now I am looking into going to San Fran.
Well, Vin just finished saying "Is Time for Dodger Baseball!"
Scary stuff. It's always a very scary moment when someone, a hitter or batter gets hit in the head. David Wright was also hit in the head by a pitch this week. Good luck and hopes for a quick recovery to both of them.
too many HBP lately and now Kuroda HBH. They are saying Kuroda will be at the game a little later They did not let him sleep the night so he only went to sleep this morning as a precautionary measure.
I am so happy to see that he is okay! That was very scary to see that he went down like that. I am so relieved that he didn't die.🙂
Hiroki-san is a samurai, he want to do his regular scheduled bullpen session and pitch his next game but they will play it by ear. Thanks!
Emma, thanks for getting back to me on that. He is a samurai. Haha, you are funny.🙂 Please stop by my blog.
Sorry to post this here, but I have had NO luck figuring out how to post multiple pictures in my blog. I saw in the past comments so many of you have MLB Blogs too, I thought this would be a good place to ask.
I can upload one, but not more to the same post.
I just started it today.
Oh….and look for my blog at http://bluecrewfan.mlblogs.com/
you should be able to do more than one pic. Maybe type something in between where you want the pictures like this and then go back and put the pics.
pic here
pic here
let me know
Thanks. I will try that.
Were you at PNC Park last year? You look familiar. Or maybe one of the Dodgers WIN events?
Yes! I was at PNC last year! Were you the one I talked to that told me you bought your tickets from the Dodgers? I've been to the last four WIN baseball events and also one at Vero Beach and the one at Camelback this year. Also the other WIN events.
Yup…that was me at PNC. Behind the dugout. I was at last years WIN baseball event with my girl, but I was mostly taking pictures.
Small world.
Yep, small world Rob! You and your girl should have gone to the WIN baseball envet this year. Did you read and see my pictures from the WIN event? The guys talking about the prank played on Loney was hilarious.
Last year was kind of special since Jeff Kent was my GF favorite player. I'll have to start reading your blog some more to find out what happened!
Your GF has good taste. He was my favorite and that came around because of all the WIN baseball clinics + he being nice to me at Vero Beach and other events.
Dear Emma,good to hear that Kuroda son is doing ok, I hope everything goes well with him and his family .Very scary moment, but thank God he is fine. looking forward to see you at the stadium.


text:
Packing list for Niger
|Packing List for [[{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |3}} {{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |4}} {{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |5}}]]
|These lists has been compiled by Volunteers serving in [[{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |3}} {{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |4}} {{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |5}}]] based on their experience. Use it as an informal guide in making your own list, bearing in mind that experience is individual. There is no perfect list!
|[[Image:Flag_of_{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |3}}{{#if:{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |4}}|_{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |4}}|}}{{#if:{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |5}}|_{{#explode:Packing list for Niger| |5}}|}}.svg|50px|none]]
See also:
For information see Welcomebooks
This list has been compiled by Volunteers serving in Niger and is based on their experience. Use it as an informal guide in making your own list, bearing in mind that experience is individual. There is no perfect list! You obviously cannot bring everything we mention, so consider those items that make the most sense to you personally and professionally. You can always have things sent to you later. As you decide what to bring, keep in mind that you have an 80-pound weight limit on baggage. And remember, you can get almost everything you need in Niger.
Many Volunteers end up wishing they had not brought so many clothes and toiletries and had concentrated instead on more personal items like music and , photos. However, we recommend that you avoid bringing anything you would be heartbroken to lose. Since there is a variety of jobs, each with different clothing requirements, you should consider your particular job in deciding what to bring. Health and education Volunteers have a greater need for professional-looking clothing than Volunteers who spend most of the time in the field, but all Volunteers should be neat and presentable. Despite your worst fears, there is a cool season in Niger, when night temperatures become quite tolerable. Make sure your clothes are comfortable and durable, because they will take a beating during hand laundering. Keep in mind that it is relatively cheap and easy to have local tailors make great-looking traditional clothes (or copies of what you bring with you).
General Clothing
- Ten or so pairs of cotton underwear (boxer shorts, bras, etc.)
- Three to five cotton T-shirts or tank tops (white not recommended)
- Three or four dress shirts
- One or two pairs of shorts for sports (but note that shorts are not normally worn by men or women in public)
- Two or three pairs of lightweight, loose-fitting cotton pants (tailors can duplicate them), the darker the better
- Two or three skirts for women (short skirts are inappropriate, and pockets are handy), below knee-length
- One sweater/sweatshirt (fleece)
- Three or five pairs of cotton socks (not white due to dust)
- One or two dressy outfits for official functions, e.g., good-looking dress or pants and a collared shirt (tie optional); do not bring anything that needs dry cleaning
- Belts (for when your clothes no longer fit you as you'll probably lose weight)
- One or two brimmed hats or baseball caps
- One pair of jeans
- Swimsuit (sometimes a pool may be available)
- One pair of sturdy sandals (e.g., Tevas, Birkenstocks, Chacos)
- One pair of tennis shoes
- One pair of dress shoes for official functions (e.g., loafers or boat shoes for men and nice sandals for women)
Note: Sand, dust, rain, mud, and mildew are prevalent in Niger, so you may want to waterproof or otherwise protect much of your clothing and footwear.
Personal Hygiene and Toiletry Items
- Thin, lightweight towel
- Nail clippers and nail file
- Good pair of scissors (for hair cutting and other things)
- Two pairs of prescription glasses, if you wear them, and maybe one tinted pair.
- Three-month supply of any prescription medication you take (including birth control pills)
- Facial astringent/Face wipes (only if you prefer a specific brand)
- Special soaps and hair conditioners
- Two-month supply of shampoo for training
- Earplugs
- Toothpaste (only if you want your favorite brand, as it can be purchased in Niger)
- Two pairs of dark sunglasses (locally available sunglasses may not have UV protection) with a sturdy case
- Razor and blades (if you are partial to a certain type—you can purchase Bic razors locally)
- Swiss army knife or Leatherman with can opener, bottle opener, blade, corkscrew
- Sturdy water bottles (e.g., Nalgene) or canteens; two-quart size is ideal (small-mouth bottle easier to drink out of while traveling)
- Spices for cooking (e.g., cinnamon, oregano, basil, curry powder); most can be purchased in Niger 89
- Dry sauce mixes and instant drink mixes (a nice treat)
- Small and large plastic food storage bags
- Hard candies (note that chocolate melts, except for peanut M&M's)
- Plastic containers (to protect a camera, tapes, and food)
- Dried fruit/granola/energy bars
- Jerky and/or tuna in a pouch
- Pudding
- Instant coffee
Note that Peace Corps/Niger has a cookbook specific to cooking in Niger. Also almost any food you want can be sent from home.
- Sleeping bag (very light, highly compactable one is best)
- Pillow (optional)
- Combination lock (key locks available locally)
- Sturdy but inexpensive waterproof watch
- A sturdy day pack or fanny pack
- Batteries for anything electronic that you bring
- Solar battery recharger (note that it is usually easier to just buy new batteries and battery rechargers can get burnt out from the heat)
- Alarm clock
- Backpack—internal frame, well constructed (not too large)
- U.S. and world maps
- Paperbacks (there are many at the Peace Corps office, but recent releases make good additions)
- Games (e.g., deck of cards, chess, checkers, Othello, Frisbee, backgammon); many are available in the transit houses
- Photos of family, friends, and scenery (a great way to get to know people)
- Musical instruments
- Materials for hobbies and crafts (you will have more free time and fewer distractions)
- Calendars, holiday cards, thank-you notes, stationery, address book, good writing pens
- U.S. driver's license (for travel outside Niger)
- Credit cards
- Padded envelopes for sending items home (like film)
- Twelve to 15 ID photos (for visas and other forms; photo-booth quality is OK, though this can be done in Niger )
- Duct tape
- Cassette recorder,Walkman, iPod, or MP3 player
- Your favorite music and blank cassettes (CDs will get scratched)
- Shortwave radio (for BBC and Voice of America news broadcasts; inexpensive ones can be purchased in Niamey)
- Flashlight or headlamp and spare bulbs (also available in Niger)
- Self-adhesive U.S. stamps for mailing letters with people traveling to the United States
- Camera with a dustproof case (smaller is better as it is more inconspicuous), including digital equipment to download to a computer
- USB sticks
- Your favorite movie on DVD or VHS (You will have access to a TV sometimes) 91
Don't Bring
- Heavy coats
- Too many clothes
- Clothing that is torn, disheveled-looking, or has offensive wording
- Camouflage or military clothing
- Lots of cash
- Two-year supply of toiletries (basic products are available in Niger)
- Pots, pans, and kitchen utensils
- Anything cumbersome or unusual that could attract customs' attention
- Over-the-counter medication (common OTC medication is provided by Peace Corps)
- Insect repellant (provided by Peace Corps/Niger)
- Sun block (provided by Peace Corps)
- Boots
- Rain gear
- Tampons
- Cellphones

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Hunt 1543: General season Buck deer
North Slope
Season dates
10-19-2013 to 10-27-2013
Type: General season
Species: Buck deer
Weapon: Any legal weapon
North Slope
DescriptionDaggett and Summit counties--Boundary begins SR-150 and the Summit-Duchesne county line at Hayden Pass (summit of the Uinta Mountains); north on SR-150 to the Utah-Wyoming state line; east on this state line to the Utah-Colorado state line; south on this state line to the Green River; west along this river to Flaming Gorge Reservoir; west along the south shoreline of this reservoir to Cart Creek; south along this creek to US-191; south on US-191 to the Uintah-Daggett County line (summit of the Uinta Mountains); west along the summit of the Uinta mountains to SR-150 at Hayden Pass. USGS 1:100,000 Maps: Dutch John, Kings Peak. Boundary questions? Call the Vernal office, 435-781-9453. This map is provided for general reference only and does not constitute a legal hunt boundary. The Division does not guarantee access to any private or public land. Hunt unit boundaries may include private property or other excluded areas.


text:
Directed by Eugene Lourié
John Baragrey – Dr. Henry Spensser
Mala Powers – Anne Spensser
Otto Kruger – Dr. William Spensser
Ross Martin – Dr. Jeremy Spensser
Charles Herbert – Billy Spensser
Ed Wolff – The Colossus"Cogito ergo sum, (I think, therefore I am)" wrote Rene Descartes in Principals of Philosophy, summing up the theory of Cartesian Dualism. Simply put, the theory holds that the brain is the seat of the soul, housing everything man is. The body, according to the theory, is completely separate from the brain, useful only as a vessel of life and means of mobility.Many film-makers have found the 17th century, French philosopher's theory irresistible. Frankenstein (James Whale, 1931), taken from Mary Shelley is the best known cinematic exploration, but other notable treatments include Donovan's Brain (Felix Feist, 1953), The Brain That Wouldn't Die (Joseph Green, 1962), and RoboCop (Paul Verhoeven, 1987). The most interesting and direct exploration of Descartes' philosophy, however, is Eugene Lourié's vastly underappreciated The Colossus of New York (1957).
The lever is thrown, and at first nothing dramatic happens; then Jeremy's large eye slots blink and then shine with a white brilliance. "Jeremy," says William. "You can see." Our perceptive changes to Jeremy, his brain linking with the machine and we see and hear from inside the newly born creature. The screen is a flickering of white noise and streaks – rolling once or twice like a broken television – the sound comes as though from a poor signal, scorched with static. The father continues to speak. You can hear Jeremy. You can see and move. You've been very Ill, but you are going to be all right. Finally we see a dim, hazy outline of the father. We change perspectives to see the robot again, its architecture striving to sync with the soft, small brain. Its eyes are brilliant slashes. Its mouth moves and works as if in terrible pain or perhaps struggling to swallow or cry. It begins to make sounds.The sounds it makes are electronic squeals and deep, scathing catches of sounds and crackles – some sizzling warbles begin to repeat as the subtle brain tries to control the course engine of steel and cable. One can imagine speakers trying to harness the soft edges of speech. It makes a high trilling sound that might be a strangled shout of pain. It is looking at the father. You can move! demands the father, barking orders as if at a stumbling, crying child. Move! Walk! Right Now! The thing makes a strangled bleating sound – then emits a high-pitched, even hum. The monster straightens, towering now to full height. The effect is such that both father and brother straighten themselves, unprepared for the naked strength that radiates from the new creation. A second phase of synchronization has occurred, the fine filaments of nerve tendrils fusing with the hard elements of the body.The New Jeremy flexes his hands; he begins to move out of the heavy scaffolding that keeps his new body propped upright. He takes steps, but, clearly, the brain is unable to control the sheer mass of the monolith that houses its fragile tissue. The steps sound as though a sledgehammer were thumping and dragging across a wooden floor. The arms are out stretched, the hands like bowling balls – the fingers working. Tables are being knocked over, glass is shattered."Henry!" shouts father, his eyes desperate. "Turn off the control!"But Henry will do nothing of the sort. He is sitting on a stool with his hands folded in his lap, watching his brother's confused torment with an expression of hooded-eyed joy. The sight of his brother - the chosen son, the families' shining light - struggling and suffering like a lost and terrified child in this torture chamber of a body, is not a pleasure he will deny himself.Jeremy stumbles to stand by chance in front of a mirror. He straightens, sees his reflection. His eyes become brighter, and an electrical sound is heard, like multiple circuits overloading and crackling in surges of discharge. The "face", of course, has no expression. Yet, somehow we now. There is something in the frantic workings of the open mouth - the white-hot blinking of the eyes – that suggest the bottomless depths of shock and revulsion. Finally, by some electrical impulse surging over wires, moving speakers set somewhere in the creature's head, it makes a shrill emission of air waves.And, certainly, there is no mistaking this sound. Anything living, anything with a soul, would recognize the high-pitched squalling as an expression of searing, psychic agony. It is a very reddish and even sound, a shrill keening without great volume; as if the sufferer were horse - nearly voiceless - in this place of numbing horror. The sound of it fills the still air and the dark halls of Spensser Mansion, faint yet unmistakable in its suffering.The first words that Jeremy speaks after learning to approximate word sounds, via his body's complex electronics, will be ones begging for death.
With that, let us commence with the Good Stuff:Good Stuff Pt. I: Cain – Soft-Spoken in Suit and Tie.Before we go further, a word must be said for Dr. Henry Spensser, the thin, stoic brother of genius.John Baragrey plays Dr. Henry Spenser, brother of brilliant Jeremy; and his performance is a study in cool reserve and elegant control. His words are gentle and never hurried; his manner is one of grace and style - his lean body a thin cool, column sheathed in a perfectly pressed suit. When he speaks to his brother in the early going, the smile is always present: "Don't be so magnanimous, Jerry. You know that heat sensor was your idea." He may even be a brilliant man, in his way - very good at automation and electronics. He just isn't going to save the world. Like his brother, Jeremy. He just doesn't bring glory to the Spensser name or, far more importantly, glory to the father, William. Like his brother Jeremy.Baragrey's performance, like the character he portrays, is all about dignified control. Baragrey's Henry will always say the right thing, offer congratulations to his brother at every proper moment, yet Baragrey makes it subtly clear, as the picture moves along, that Henry is a man giving away a small piece of his hidden heart with every smile; his sweet, flat voice a scream of pain too modulated to hear. The actor captures the tone perfectly, and one can't help but feel something for this unloved brother. Pity? Something more, perhaps? Empathy. Yes. Empathy, for so few of us will save the world, and so many of us know the workings of Henry's quiet pain. Henry is not the man he wishes to be; does not inspire the passion in others he longs for. To make matters worse, his above-average gifts are forced to dwell in the dimly lit corners of the brilliant illumination that is Jeremy.Pain is the word for Henry. It is painful to watch Henry trying to make things better for his sister-in-law and nephew after his brother's death. "Billy?" he calls, entering the house soon after the funeral. "Billy, I have something for you." Billy is sitting on the floor, dourly playing with a toy carrousel, solemn and still as children are in grief."Billy!" says his mother, standing beside Henry with her arms crossed. "You should answer when spoken to." Billy shuffles over with his eyes down."Billy, want to look in my pockets and see what I found for you?" says Henry, holding up his arms. Billy begins to go through Henry's topcoat dutifully. "Ah you're pretty cold there. Colder. Warmer." Eventually Billy pulls out a toy boat from a pocket. All has gone according to Henry's plan: He has gone to a toy store and selected an appropriate gift, perhaps taking his time. He has made a fun game of his nephew finding this gift, as beloved uncles often do. He has even placed his hand on the boys head. Yet something essential hasn't clicked. "Thank you, Uncle Henry," says Billy. "It's very nice."Inevitably, Henry falls in love with Anne, his brother's widow; his polite hand-holding overturns, though, are met with cool reserve and obvious boredom. It's a mute point, anyway, as suave Dr. Carrington, with his natty little mustache and flowery talk of the soul, has beaten him easily to the punch without even trying. Henry just isn't a man that can inspire passion or love; the genius brother has seen to that – all through their lives, any love or powerful feeling that came near the brothers' orbit was completely drawn into the frightful gravity – the black hole -- of Jeremy's charisma; the atmosphere around Henry growing colder by degrees .Henry hates is brother, Jeremy. But, of course, sibling hate is never a simple thing, skittering as in does on the indistinct borders of love. When Jeremy's father shows Henry the brain, Henry's cool reserve is broken; and he is horrified for his brother. When Jeremy stirs to consciousness, birthed in electronic shrieks, it is Henry that wants to spare his brother the horror of the monster shell; touching, for just a brief moment of compassion, the bond brothers share. "No. No . . . It's inhuman," he says, his voice choked, staring around the lab while the tank bubbles methodically, his face somehow youthful in his moment of terrible understanding, his expression raw with compassion for his brother.Yet, as Blake has said, "the human face a furnace seal'd." This compassion from Henry is something primal – a brother's bond; but this center will not hold. As Jeremy's soul is ruined by the cold metal, and his mind encased in steel becomes nothing more than a savage calculating machine, Henry grins at the metal features of the colossus in naked glee at his little brother's horrible torment.John Baragrey gives us a performance strong enough to make us believe both sides of Henry's tortured feelings for his own blood.The Good Stuff Pt. II: Saint Jeremy and the Calculation of GenocideAfter being born into his titanic shell, it takes Jeremy a bit to master his body armor. Quickly though, standing stock still, he can communicate in a rough, electronic imitation of his human voice. His first order of business?"You want to help me?" he asks, forming his words very carefully. "Then destroy me."The father cannot do this, of course. After a conversation in which Father William has taken advantage of every possible avenue of manipulation, Jeremy agrees to try to continue his noble work providing that his mechanical afterlife is kept a secret from the world. "I . . .will try." He says, his flat voice communicating tremendous suffering.Very quickly though, as Dr. Carrington has predicted, a mind divorced from the human stimulus of a physical body becomes something terribly cold and analytical – a thing devoid of the lush pleasures and the shades of sensitive concern which mesh in the soul. Slowly, inexorably, Jeremy forgets the pleasures - and loves - of the flesh. To make things even more terrible, his runaway mind, no longer hampered by the limitations of a physical being, becomes clairvoyant – capable of seeing the world's horrible events before they happen (the Jeremy Robot, improving his body as will befit the dreadful formulations of his mind, will soon develop his optics to include the ability to hypnotize as well as shoot out curtains of death rays). Jeremy's mind begins to twist and gnarl blackly in the horrid wind of his ever-increasing, godlike power.One afternoon Henry finds himself alone with his brother in the laboratory. Henry is sitting behind a desk, regarding his brother, who has hung himself in his frame of heavy scaffolding to rest. Suddenly Henry smiles, then laughs unpleasantly. "What is it you find so amusing?" says Jeremy, his metallic voice registering an obvious warning."Not amusing," says Henry, his eyes mean slits, "Ironic. It occurred to me how ironic it is that your grave should lay just a few hundred yards form here, and yet all this time you continue to so brilliantly exist.""Bril-liant-ly," says Jeremy, his temper flaring, making his words break and crackle. The air is filled with the sound of circuits starting to sputter. "AHM AHM AHM AHM - I warn you. Henry." Jeremy lifts himself from his resting frame, towering now, eyes white. He holds his hands out. "These are powerful, Henry. You know how powerful, because you made them." The creature takes a step toward Henry. "Do not goad me, Henry. I warn yooouuaaahhh na na na! "Henry's expression has instantly gone from vindictive satyr to scared-shitless weenie and, quick like a bunny, he scrambles for the control box and switches Jeremy off. As Jeremy's eyes go dark and he slumps back into his resting frame, Henry sits gulping for a moment or two amid the scorched ozone; understanding for the first time that his brother truly is dead and gone; and that what remains is a killing monster with 7 pound hands.Perhaps because of his brother's viscous taunts, Jeremy Robot begins to visit his mortal grave in secret, clumping heavily through the Estate grounds. It is at his own gravesite that monster Jeremy befriends his son, Billy, in some of the movie's most saccharine and false moments. The stilted, wince-producing dialogue of the son-with-mechanical-father scenes, of which where are gratefully few, are totally incongruous to a script that is otherwise clean and hard. It is the perfunctory, contrived nature of this relationship which will mar the picture - give its conclusion a slight false ring, and reduce its grade to "gem" from a possible ranking of "masterpiece."Yet this tender relationship with his son proves only a brief respite from the coming gale of a corrupted intellect. No human feeling can begin to halt Jeremy's rapid slide into the crystalline light of rampant madness. As Jeremy struggles to hold onto the last, bitter dregs of his sanity, as well as his darkening humanity, he explains himself thus to his father:"Shall I tell you what you have given me? Shall I show you? This, Father--" Jeremy, now able to stand and walk without support from his rest braces (like a child learning to fully control its body), picks up a long letter opener off a table and calmly plunges it to the hilt into his chest. It makes a sound like an oil can being slowly and methodically crushed. "You've given me this body. This flesh that cannot feel. Cannot feel—" Jeremy begins to approach his father, who makes a crab for the control box. "No!" shouts Jeremy, smashing it onto the ground. As the pieces of the box tinkle and rattle around, Jeremy and his father stare at one another, both realizing the Rubicon has been crossed; and that this mammoth, terrible infant has entered some freakish version of manhood, beyond the manipulation of the father.Then, as Jeremy descends fully into the awful logic of his electrified brain, he finds the bottom of his mind to be as cold and sterile as the edge of a razor. There is nothing in the pit with him but icy light. The correct course of action becomes very simple and blindingly clear to him: Step one of Jeremy's final solution is to kill his brother, whom he has come to see as an enemy (not to mention Jeremy, with his powers of clairvoyance, realizes that Henry is in love with he wife). Jeremy, by the latter half of the movie, has become a sweaty, terrified mess and on the run for his life; his once smooth voice a shaking tremor of fear and desperation. "Can't you understand," he pleads his father from a phone booth in Manhattan, begging him for getaway money; "He can see me. Where ever I am, he can see me!" This proves to be true and Henry, the doomed lesser light, dies in a shower of death rays spraying out from the eyes of his brother. Henry dies alone on the rain-black streets of a Manhattan night; and it is the killing of his brother that seems to unleash the Pandora's box of Jeremy's destruction.One evening, Dr. William comes running to the sound of destruction coming from the lab. He rushes in to discover the Jeremy combine smashing the place to atoms, pounding his metal fists through the tanks holding the vegetable and fruit plants of his research, smashing the tables and beakers to bits.Jeremy pauses to explain the logic of his final solution to his father."Why produce food for the lame and the sick? Why should we work to preserve slum people of the world? Isn't it simpler and wiser to get rid of them instead? Unfortunately there are so-called humanitarian scientists, and I am one of them, who tried to keep human trash alive. It will be necessary to get rid of those humanitarians first. Do you understand? We must eliminate the idealists." Here, Jeremy steps over to his father, a hulking gargantua casting his father in shadow. Jeremy leans close, his flashing, hypnotic eyes casting strobes over his father's white face. "You will help me," he says.The Good Stuff, Pt. IV: The Slaughter of the WorldJeremy hypnotically instructs his father to attend the World Food Convention at the United Nations Building, in which Jeremy was to have been given an award for his work in world hunger (Dr. Carrington is to accept the award in his place as the world thinks he is dead). Jeremy has instructed his father to be there, along with his wife and son, promptly at 8:30.The United Nations Building will symbolize the entire globe, with people from many nations milled about at the convention. It is here, amid the cries and screams of the world, that Jeremy will begin his genocide of the human trash including, for good measure, his entire family.To make the convention at the UN Building, Jeremy crosses the East River by walking long the bottom of it, emerging on the Manhattan side undetected (the shots of the mechanical Jeremy, walking under water accompanied by Van Cleave's elegant piano score, are strangely beautiful and frightening). Jeremy then crashes into the convention through one of the United Nations Building's huge glass panels. As the shrieking begins, Jeremy marches to a balcony, and turns to face the population of the globe."Though shall beat their swords into plowshares, hook their spears into pruning-hooks. Nations shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more," are the words carved into the marble wall behind Jeremy, who stands over the populace with his hands at his sides. Suddenly, wave after wave, curtain after shimmering curtain of eye death-rays are spread over humanity – as represented by the screaming men and woman in evening wear engulfed in the lethal light. Jeremy, in his ultimate way, is making the scribe of ancient Isaiah absolutely true: Nations will never learn war again. As Stalin believes, so believes Jeremy: "No man – No problem."Nations of men and women fall, howling in agony as their lives are seared from their bodies; dropping one after another to the tile-checkerboard floor of the world, curling so as to appear fetal and birthed into death.Again we recall the words of Isaiah, as it is Billy, the little child, that will lead them and save the world form holocaust: Amid the howls of the dying, Billy dashes up the stairs of the balcony to his Father. His enormous, mechanized father lifts him, and for one glorious moment – er, I mean for one dreadful moment - we imagine that he is going to crush the sweet child to pulp; but no. Jeremy holds his son to his chest while Billy beats his metallic breastplate with his fists, screaming his hatred."I cannot stop myself," says Jeremy, having a rather sudden and tardy flash of humanity. "Billy, I want you to stop me." Unable to reach the suicide, fail-safe lever that is attached to his side, Jeremy instructs his son to throw it. "Harder, Billy. Harder," says the father in is flat, mechanized voice.Finally, after several annoyingly feeble attempts (don't be a puss Billy! Put some ass into it, Goddammit!), Billy is finally able to throw the death lever, and Jeremy tumbles over the balcony railing to the floor with a crash (we see a reaction shot of Jeremy's fall to earth via Dr. William, who flinches at the smashing sounds offscreen as though watching a server drop a tray of dishes).We are given a final shot of family exiting the building; and Dr. William Spensser grimly admitting to Dr. Carrington that he was right all along, that an intellect separated from the human impulses of a mortal body will invariably lead to monstrousness. The End.In conclusion, we have to admit that Dr. Carrington was certainly correct as far as his theory goes: It is the mind/body connection which creates the possibility for a sensitive humanity; but it is the deeds of the father, Dr. William Spensser, which demonstrate that a mind need not be divorced from a body to become monstrous. The good doctor's life provides a fine example, as do so many in our race's bloody history, that a mind and body can combine to form a monster just fine. Dr. William Spenser, after all, as had quite a busy time of it. He has pulled the brain of one son from the mouth of the grave, not out of love but out of a desperate need to sustain his own vicarious glory. He has brought the brain, and the son, back to a hideous aberration of life wherein said son will destroy his own noble legacy. Further, he has sent another son screaming with fear into the night, only to die at the huge hands of the resurrected bother. And, not for nothing, his created Jeremy - this clairvoyant, extermination machine - has symbolically eliminated a fair share of the world's population before coercing his son to help him commit suicide.Dr. William has shown us, as though a refresher course were actually required, that monsters aren't really robots or spacemen; they don't have fangs or change into wolves when clouds pass before the face of a full moon. No. They often have advanced degrees, large studies full of books; well pressed suits and pleasant manners - have large dogs as pets.The real monsters of the world don't die by silver bullets or wooden stakes. They aren't blasted from the sky with ray guns. Hell, they seldom die at all. Often the real monsters of the earth simply shrug their shoulders at the carnage, brush off a trouser leg, and go home to a nice fire and a glass of sherry.


text:
Good morning day, a creature unafraid. Heavens to Murgatroid, what's with the gay-bashing here? To think that I, King of the Jungle, should be so lowly treated. Stop it, stop it, you're busting my heart even.
So me thinks that I'll speak up to the bashers and say GO AWAY.
But let's check the male for the day. Just some more bashing from those that are afraid of the gay. Like it's catchy or something.
Oh, heavens to Betsy, they don't want us to say "gay" anymore. All of a sudden, will we have to "don our festive apparel" when we sing Jingle Bells even?
Farewell to thee. Exit stage left--especially since it's wrong to go right.


text:
Beginners to Unix-like operating systems such as FreeBSD are often stymied by their network settings. Sure, the install process may have set up your NIC for you, but where do you go to view these settings, and how do you proceed if your NIC stops working? Since networking is such an integral part of computing, this article will demonstrate how to verify, configure, and optimize your network settings.
If you've come from a Microsoft background, you've probably used either
winipcfg or
ipconfig /all to verify your network
settings at the command line. Unix comes with a similar utility, named
ifconfig (for "interface config"). By entering this command, you'll
see all of the system's interfaces and their settings. Some versions require
you to include the
-a, or all, switch.
% ifconfig
rl0: flags=8802<BROADCAST,SIMPLEX,MULTICAST> mtu 1500
ether 00:05:5d:d2:19:b7
media: Ethernet autoselect (10baseT/UTP)
status: no carrier
rl1: flags=8802<BROADCAST,SIMPLEX,MULTICAST> mtu 1500
ether 00:05:5d:d1:ff:9d
media: Ethernet autoselect (10baseT/UTP)
status: no carrier
ed0: flags=8843<UP,BROADCAST,RUNNING,SIMPLEX,MULTICAST> mtu 1500
inet 192.168.2.12 netmask 0xffffff00 broadcast 192.168.2.255
ether 00:50:ba:de:36:33
lo0: flags=8049<UP,LOOPBACK,RUNNING,MULTICAST> mtu 16384
inet 127.0.0.1 netmask 0xff000000
Your output will vary from this, but will contain similarities. This
particular system isn't running the default kernel. I've removed the default
gif, and
faith devices from this kernel, so
they don't show in the output.
This system does have three physical interfaces (
rl1, and
ed0) and the loopback virtual interface
lo0). Different versions of Unix differ in their interface naming
convention. For example, Linux uses
eth for Ethernet NICs, so
would show their names as
eth1, and
eth2. BSD uses the driver name for each NIC, allowing you to
differentiate between different chipsets and the features available for each
driver. To see the documentation for your NIC's driver, read section 4 of its
driver manual. Note that you don't include the number of the interface, so
look up
rl instead of
% man 4 rl
rl -- RealTek 8129/8139 Fast Ethernet device driver
% man 4 ed
ed -- ethernet device driver
While this system has three NICs, only
ed0 is up and running.
The two RealTek NICs don't have cables attached, as indicated by the
status: no carrier lines. Accordingly, only
ed0 has
an IP address (192.168.2.12), a subnet mask (0xffffff00), and a broadcast
address (192.168.2.255).
That subnet mask is written in hex, as indicated by the beginning
0x. This
particular mask isn't too hard to translate into decimal, if you remember that
each pair of
f characters (
ff) is equivalent to 255.
Thus, the subnet mask here is 255.255.255.0. If you find a pair of hex numbers
that aren't
ff (255) or
00 (0), use
or the built-in calculator to translate that hex pair into decimal for you. For
example, if your mask is
% bc
bc 1.06
Copyright 1991-1994, 1997, 1998, 2000 Free Software Foundation, Inc.
This is free software with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
For details type `warranty'.
<Ctrl d>
Here, I asked
bc to translate a base 16, or hex, number as input
ibase=16). Remember to convert any letters to uppercase, or you
won't get the correct answer. Since
e0 is decimal 224, this example mask is
Note that
ifconfig gives the applicable status, MTU, IP
address, subnet mask, broadcast address, and Ethernet (or MAC) address of each
interface. However, it doesn't give the address of the default gateway or the
DNS servers.
To see your default gateway address, use the
netstat, or network
status, command. Include the
-r (routing) switch. Including the
-n switch speeds up the results by skipping name resolution:
% netstat -rn
Routing tables
Destination Gateway Flags Refs Use Netif Expire
default 192.168.2.100 UGS 0 72664 ed0
127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 UH 1 46 lo0
192.168.2 link#3 UC 0 0 ed0
192.168.2.12 127.0.0.1 UGHS 0 0 lo0
192.168.2.100 00:48:54:1e:2c:76 UHLW 1 0 ed0 1172
Note: Linux users can also use the
route command to receive similar
results. The BSD
route command works differently; see
route for details. However,
netstat -rn works on all
operating systems, including Linux and Microsoft operating systems.
In your output, look for the line that begins with the word
default. The associated IP address is that of your default
gateway. Also look at the flags for that entry. Hopefully they indicate
U for up and
G for gateway. This indicates that you
can communicate with your gateway. If the number in the
Use field isn't 0,
you've actually sent your gateway that number of packets.
Finally, the last line of this output shows the MAC address of the default gateway.
The resolver configuration file should contain your DNS settings. You can view that file with:
% more resolv.conf
nameserver 184.108.40.206
nameserver 18.104.22.168
nameserver 18.104.22.168
This particular system contains the IP addresses of three DNS servers. It's a good idea to have the addresses of at least two servers, in case your primary DNS server becomes unavailable.
While you have Internet access, you should know how to query your ISP's DNS servers and to record the results in a book containing your network settings. This will be invaluable if you ever need to recreate these settings manually. If you don't keep such a notebook, you can gather those settings from a system that does have working Internet access.
To find out the IP addresses of your DNS servers, use
dig, the
domain information groper. Here, I'll ask for the
ns, or name
server, entries for my ISP:
% dig ns sympatico.ca
; <<>> DiG 8.3 <<>> ns sympatico.ca
;; res options: init recurs defnam dnsrch
;; got answer:
;; ->>HEADER<<- opcode: QUERY, status: NOERROR, id: 44589
;; flags: qr rd ra; QUERY: 1, ANSWER: 4, AUTHORITY: 0, ADDITIONAL: 4
;; sympatico.ca, type = NS, class = IN
sympatico.ca. 6h12m33s IN NS ns5.bellnexxia.net.
sympatico.ca. 6h12m33s IN NS ns6.bellnexxia.net.
sympatico.ca. 6h12m33s IN NS dns1.sympatico.ca.
sympatico.ca. 6h12m33s IN NS dns2.sympatico.ca.
ns5.bellnexxia.net. 9m36s IN A 18.104.22.168
ns6.bellnexxia.net. 9m37s IN A 188.8.131.52
dns1.sympatico.ca. 14m7s IN A 18.104.22.168
dns2.sympatico.ca. 3m56s IN A 184.108.40.206
;; Total query time: 46 msec
;; FROM: dru.domain.org to SERVER: 188.8.131.52
;; WHEN: Sun Apr 11 14:30:14 2004
;; MSG SIZE sent: 30 rcvd: 182
Your output will be divided into several
SECTIONs. For now, concentrate on
ANSWER SECTION, which contains the answer to your
dig query. My ISP uses four DNS name servers, as seen in my
answer. Each name server uses an
IN (IPv4) record and a
NS (name server) record. However, the answer shows the
names of the name servers. You don't want to use names for name
resolution; you want the IP addresses of your name servers.
You'll find those names mapped to IP addresses in the
dig is also handy if you ever forget the name or IP address of
your ISP's SMTP or mail server. This time, query for the
mx, or
mail exchange record. Here, I've shown only the
ANSWER SECTION for
% dig mx sympatico.ca
sympatico.ca. 20m34s IN MX 5 mta2.sympatico.ca.
sympatico.ca. 20m34s IN MX 5 mta3.sympatico.ca.
sympatico.ca. 20m34s IN MX 5 mta1.sympatico.ca.
My ISP has three SMTP servers. See that number between the
and the name of the mail server? That's the priority number. My ISP's mail
servers all have the same priority; however, some ISPs use different
priorities. If yours does, choose the mail server with the lowest priority
number, as it has the highest priority.
If your IP settings are assigned by a DHCP server, you can see all of your settings at once by viewing your current lease.
The lease itself is contained within curly brackets. If you have several leases, the one at the top of the file is your most recent lease.
% more /var/db/dhclient.leases
lease {
interface "ed0";
fixed-address 192.168.2.12;
option subnet-mask 255.255.255.0;
option time-offset -18000;
option dhcp-lease-time 345600;
option routers 192.168.2.100;
option dhcp-message-type 5;
option dhcp-server-identifier 192.168.2.100;
option domain-name-servers 22.214.171.124,22.214.171.124,18.104.22.168;
renew 2 2004/4/13 02:13:03;
rebind 3 2004/4/14 23:34:37;
expire 4 2004/4/15 11:34:37;
It's one thing to know how to verify your interface configuration, but what
if you need to configure an interface? Let's say you've just added another NIC
to your system. Once your computer reboots, you'll want to verify that the new NIC
was recognized. You can use
ifconfig and look for an additional
interface. You could also search the boot probe messages for found Ethernet
addresses. Remember to include a capital
E in your search:
% grep Ethernet /var/run/dmesg.boot
rl0: Ethernet address: 00:05:5d:d2:19:b7
rl1: Ethernet address: 00:05:5d:d1:ff:9d
ed0: <NE2000 PCI Ethernet (RealTek 8029)> port 0x9800-0x981f irq 10 at
device 11.0 on pci0
If your new NIC is listed, it's ready to be configured -- but what if the new NIC wasn't found at bootup? The first question to ask yourself is, "Have I created a custom kernel?" If so, check your kernel configuration file; you may have removed the driver required by the new NIC.
If that's not the issue, you may have to
reboot and examine
your CMOS settings. Have you disabled any IRQs? Do you have enabled onboard
devices that you don't use? If so, they may be wasting an IRQ, and there aren't
any left over for your new NIC. If you do decide to change a CMOS setting,
record the original value on a piece of paper. Change one setting,
boot up and see if it made a difference. Repeat as necessary.
If the NIC is PCI, check your CMOS PnP OS setting. Sometimes changing it from yes to no will resolve the issue. Also, sometimes seating the NIC in another PCI slot solves the problem. Finally, as a last resort, you can determine if it is an IRQ problem by removing all cards except the new NIC and your video card. If the NIC is recognized, you have more cards than you have IRQs.
Once your NIC is recognized, decide whether to set the IP address
information manually or to use a DHCP server. Either method requires a change
to /etc/rc.conf. If you prefer, you can use
/stand/sysinstall, which will edit this file for you. This is the
same utility you used when you installed your FreeBSD system. Once the utility
starts, choose
Configure, then
Networking, and then use
your space bar to select
Otherwise, edit /etc/rc.conf directly using your favorite text
editor. For example, these lines statically assign an IP address and subnet
mask to
rl0, and set the default gateway:
ifconfig_rl0="inet 192.168.2.25 netmask 255.255.255.0" \
Also, if you're using static IP addressing, don't forget to add the IP addresses of your DNS servers to /etc/resolv.conf.
If you instead use a DHCP server to receive your IP address information, you only need to add one line to /etc/rc.conf:
You don't need to add your default router or DNS server addresses, as the lease assigned by your DNS server should include this information.
When you've saved your changes to /etc/rc.conf, initialize your network settings:
# /etc/netstart
Note: If you ever need to renew your DHCP lease, use this command, but
rl0 for the name of your NIC:
# dhclient -r rl0
Unless you have an extremely old NIC, or you specifically purchased a 100Mbps NIC, your NIC is 10/100Mbps. This means it is capable of negotiating a speed of 10 or 100 Mbps. It most likely also negotiates either half-duplex (cannot send and receive simultaneously) or full-duplex (can send and receive simultaneously) operation. This negotiation process occurs between the NIC and the hub or switch at the other end of your networking cable.
Obviously, 100Mbps at full-duplex is much better than 10Mbps at half-duplex. The limiting factor will be the hub or switch; its documentation will indicate its speed and mode of operation. If it doesn't support 100Mbps or full-duplex, you're not getting the most out of your NIC and your networking experience will be much slower.
However, you should also be aware that even if the hub or switch supports 100Mbps and full-duplex mode, the NIC and the hub or switch still renegotiate these values on an ongoing basis. If your NIC is always plugged into the same hub or switch, it makes sense to set these values to save the overhead of negotiation.
Whether you can do this depends upon the driver for your NIC, so carefully read the
man 4 for your driver. In my example network, I
would be better off unplugging my
ed0 and instead using one of the
RealTek interfaces. Why?
man 4 ed indicates that this particular
driver only supports 10Mbps at half-duplex mode (IEEE 802.3 CSMA). However,
man 4 rl indicates that this driver can be configured to use 100Mbps and full-duplex operation.
Here is an example of the lines I would use in /etc/rc.conf:
ifconfig_rl0="100baseTX mediaopt full-duplex"
There are several things to make note of here. One, the manpage will indicate which options are available and how to set them. Two, don't try to add a setting that your NIC driver doesn't support, as indicated by its manpage. Third, don't change your speed and duplex mode to a value that your hub or switch doesn't support!
To see if my changes worked, I'll plug my network cable into
rl0 and issue the command
/etc/netstart. I'll then
check out the results:
% ifconfig rl0
rl0: flags=8843<UP,BROADCAST,RUNNING,SIMPLEX,MULTICAST> mtu 1500
inet 192.168.2.87 netmask 0xffffff00 broadcast 192.168.2.255
ether 00:05:5d:d2:19:b7
media: Ethernet autoselect (100baseTX <full-duplex>)
status: active
This article has covered most of the configuration scenarios for Ethernet NICs. You should also refer to the "Setting Up Network Interface Cards" section of the handbook.
In the next few articles, I'd like to concentrate on printing.
Dru Lavigne is a network and systems administrator, IT instructor, author and international speaker. She has over a decade of experience administering and teaching Netware, Microsoft, Cisco, Checkpoint, SCO, Solaris, Linux, and BSD systems. A prolific author, she pens the popular FreeBSD Basics column for O'Reilly and is author of BSD Hacks and The Best of FreeBSD Basics.
Read more FreeBSD Basics columns.
Return to the BSD DevCenter.
Copyright © 2009 O'Reilly Media, Inc.


text:
HPV Vaccine for Boys
A recent announcement is likely to generate a lot of controversy. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the CDC has recommended that boys and young men be vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV). Previously the guidelines said boys "could" be given the HPV vaccine. Now they have recommended that boys age 11 to 12 "should" be vaccinated, as well as boys age 13 to 21 who have not already had the full series of 3 shots. The vaccine can also be given to boys as young as 9 and to young men age 22 to 26.
The vaccine was originally promoted as a way to prevent cervical cancer. Boys don't have a cervix, so why should they be subjected to a "girl's" vaccine? There are some good science-based reasons:
- Boys can transmit the virus to female sex partners later in life, leading to cervical cancer in women.
- More importantly, boys themselves can also be directly harmed by the virus. It can cause genital warts, cancer of the head and neck (tongue, tonsils and throat), anal and penile cancer, respiratory papillomatosis, and giant condyloma of Buschke and Lowenstein. In rare cases, immunocompromised patients can develop epidermodysplasia verruciformis.
- There are other unconfirmed concerns: HPV has been associated with cardiovascular disease in one study.
Some of these conditions are not common, and the most common one, genital warts, may sound trivial. But "a picture is worth a thousand words," so here is a link to a picture of a giant condyloma of Buschke and Lowenstein as an example of what HPV can do to the unvaccinated. The picture is not pleasant. If you are squeamish, you may not want to look at it. If you can't even stand to look at it, imagine how devastating it would be to have it appear on your own body, and how nice it would be to be vaccinated against it.


text:
Mentor Programs
Cosponsored by GSA Foundation. Learn more at www.geosociety.org/mentors/.
- Roy J. Shlemon Mentor Program in Applied Geoscience
Thurs., 24 March, noon1:30 p.m.
Students will have the opportunity to discuss career prospects and challenges with professional geoscientists from multiple disciplines over a FREE lunch.
- John Mann Mentors in Applied Hydrogeology Program
Fri., 25 March, noon1:30 p.m.
Students interested in applied hydrogeology or hydrology as a career will have the opportunity to network with professionals in these fields over a FREE lunch.
Travel Grants
Application deadline: 22 February 2011
You must be registered for the meeting before you can apply for a travel grant. Other restrictions apply — please check eligibility guidelines before applying.
The local committee and officers of GSA's Southeastern Section offer free meeting registration to student volunteers in return for ~6 hours of work.
Contact student volunteer coordinator Patricia Kelley.
Please volunteer by 1 Feb. 2011.


text:
Early Friday morning, Jon Heyman reported that the Phillies were early frontrunners to land B.J. Upton. The former #1 pick is a first-time free agent, and is generally considered the perfect fallback plan for teams that either miss out on, or don't want to pay the hefty price tags of, Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn.
Upton has spent his entire career with Tampa Bay and combines solid centerfield defense with athletic baserunning ability and 20+ home run power. He is the youngest centerfield free agent, at 28 years old, and is expected to sign for $11-$13 million per season over four or five years. He is a very talented and valuable baseball player in his prime. The Rays made Upton a qualifying offer late Friday afternoon, but he isn't likely to accept it.
Given how Ruben Amaro tends to operate, if the Phillies are serious about Upton, his signing could be imminent. Amaro's modus operandi in his brief general managership has involved identifying a target and making the deal happen quickly. He let the market play out with Jimmy Rollins last offseason, but that was an exception, far from the rule.
While I extolled the virtues of one Peter Bourjos yesterday as a legitimate trade target for the Phillies, the situation is starting to have that 'feel' that Upton will be our starting centerfielder for the next several seasons. He was always a prime candidate for the Phillies, who love raw athleticism, and if these early reports are any indication Amaro has found his man.
There really isn't a wrong answer when discussing Upton, Bourjos, Angel Pagan or Shane Victorino for the centerfield post, but Upton represents the best solution among those on the free agent market. His numbers have been deflated by the Trop, he still has untapped potential, and he is worth ~$12 million/yr even without developing further.
The key when evaluating Upton's offense is that his home stadium in Tampa Bay deflated his general rate stats. Many fans will accept that park factors very obviously play a role in shaping a player's stats-line and then conveniently ignore that fact when looking at a lower batting average or on-base percentage. Without digging deeper, or incorporating the impact park factors had on Upton's line the last few seasons, it looks like he has a lower OBP and SLG than is desired for this Phillies lineup. However, as the tone of this paragraph suggests, the actual marks we see on his line are misleading.
From 2010-12, Upton posted a .328 wOBA and 109 wRC+ over 1,883 plate appearances. While wOBA is calculated independent of park or league, wRC+ is adjusted for both to enable accurate comparisons regardless of where someone plays. Upton's wRC+ indicates he has produced offensively at a rate nine percent above league average. He hit .242/.317/.436 in that span. From 2010-12, Shane Victorino posted a .335 wOBA and 109 wRC+ over 1,900 plate appearances. In that span, he had a .264/.334/.432 line.
It's important here to note that both Victorino and Upton produced at the same adjusted rate over the last three years. Vic's slash line can't just get assigned to Upton, but when thinking about how the latter's stats might look in a Phillies uniform, Victorino's line is more telling than Upton's unadjusted Tampa Bay line. It's too easy to get caught up in these raw, unadjusted numbers, while simultaneously ignoring or assigning less credit to the data that tells us what the numbers really mean.
In this case, Vic and Upton's slash lines don't matter that much. They were both nine percent better than the league offensively. On top of that, Upton's unadjusted OBP was .317 over the last three seasons. The American League had a .317 OBP over the same span. Offense is declining across the sport — a .317 OBP in today's junior circuit is perfectly acceptable as league average. Comparisons to the league average need to be stressed more, or we'll never adjust our mental barometers. We'll continue to use the 2002-05 averages instilled in our minds to evaluate stats derived in today's lesser offensive environment.
When evaluating productivity, the context of other available players also matters. The centerfield position is flush with competent players available via trade or free agency. Determining who to pursue or how much that person is worth — in dollars or prospects — is contingent upon everyone else in the group. That makes Amaro's trends a bit troubling here, as he could up and sign Upton for $60 million over five years next week, only to see Angel Pagan sign for $30 million over three years, or Bourn to have to settle for far less than he originally sought. There is a risk/reward mechanism in play, and such an important position requires the appropriate amount of due diligence. Amaro may have targeted Upton, but how does he compare to other available CFs?
Looking first at offense, per wRC+, the most productive players here have been Upton and Victorino. Pagan isn't too far behind them. When the BsR — Fangraphs' baserunning metric — is factored in, Bourn's case grows stronger. However, Upton, Victorino and Pagan also rate very well on the bases. Simply put, Upton is the best offensive player of the bunch, regardless of his strikeouts or low unadjusted slash line.
He also has the 2nd-highest walk rate among anyone in this group. On the flipside, he also has one of the highest strikeout rates. His rate stats have been reduced not because of impatience or a low BABIP, but because he strikes out.
That's part of the package, however, and that downside is made up for by advantages elsewhere. No player is perfect, and fixating on the flaws of any as a concrete reason to avoid them, while assigning less credit to their positive attributes, is silly. A Pros and Cons list is unnecessary, but that would show much more in the positive column for Upton.
Fielding has been a little tricky for Upton as the data is all over the place from various sources. In some areas, he is a plus-defender who may have lost a step. In others, he is still a very good fielder. Scouting reports indicate he is a top-notch fielder as well, but not at the Bourjos or Bourn levels. After all, if was excellent in every single area, he would be in line to make as much as Bourn and Hamilton. He has deficiencies relative to other available centerfielders, but his case can be summed up by saying he is good at just about everything, whereas some others are legitimately bad at certain things. Upton isn't excellent at any particular area, like Hamilton is with power, Bourjos is with fielding or Bourn is with baserunning, but he is consistent, steady and good at many different production aspects.
One area in which he has a bad reputation is his attitude. I'm not going to ignore that, but I'll simply say this — it's hard for me to imagine attitude being a problem on a team with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, etc, etc. The Phillies are a well-respected, highly-professional organization filled with veterans. Deep down, can you really see Upton being a dick — if he really is that way — with these guys around? There is a clear difference between the guys mentioned above and the young nucleus down in Tampa Bay. Attitude isn't insignificant, it just won't matter as much with this team.
The offseason is just getting underway and it remains unclear how quickly the Phillies will want to strike. My money is on Amaro making a move soon to get his guy. As we have seen before, even when the market is rich at a certain position, he cares more about identifying the guy he specifically wants and making the deal happen.
If Heyman's report is an indication that B.J. Upton fits that bill for Amaro, it should surprise nobody if he signs a deal in the next few weeks. Unfortunately, it's tough to evaluate the terms of a potential deal without seeing what everyone else gets. He may be worth more than $12-$13 million per season, but if he could have been signed for $9 million if the market collapsed, then that obviously makes an impact on a contract evaluation.
Upton combines the best value in multiple areas and is the most attractive free agent candidate for the Phillies. Even if he is a finished product, it's a pretty darn good product, and I would be a perfectly happy camper to see him roam centerfield for the Phils, wreak havoc on the basepaths, and put up some 20/20 marks over the next several seasons.
0 Comments
I completely degree that BJ Upton is a good option for the Phillies. I think they need two outfielders then let the third position be manned by whoever emerges from Domonic Brown, Darrin Ruff, John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, or Nate Schierholtz or a platoon of them.
For third base I think they should consider trading for Jhonny Peralta. He would give them an inexpensive option and some pop from the right side.
Go for Upton… park adjusted stats got me hooked. What's Howard's career K rate?
Excellent analysis, and the table really provides a clear picture on the strengths of each CF candidate. As you said, Upton is expected to receive a contract of between $11-13 million for 4-5 years. In that range, I would sign him, especially with his former hitting coach now in Philly. At what point do you think he becomes too expensive? $14 Million? $15 million? While I do not think that overpaying is likely with this many CF candidates on the market, owners have often not behaved rationally before.
If Upton's price tag rises to 5 years $15 million, whom would you say would be the next best option on the free agent market? We can leave trades out of the scenario for right now because while it seems likely that Span and/or Bourjos will become available, there is no definitive proof either way
Not sure I agree with the paragraph directly after the chart. Seems to me that Victorino is offensively Upton's equal and better on both the bases and in the field. As much as there is no player without flaws, Victorino looks like the most complete player available, to be honest. The only real risk is whether this year was the beginning of the end of his career or just an outlier down year.
If they could sign Victorino for significantly less on a shorter contract, that actually might be a more efficient expenditure, at least in terms of WAR/$.
I'm not all that sure that Upton's positives outweigh that K%. I can see the runners stranded.
I also wonder where Heyman got his information about the Phillies being the frontrunners. It's awfully early to be speculating about that.
Upton does appear to be a decent option. I just hope Amaro doesn't go crazy with a contract offer, because there's just not that much separating most of these guys.
Signing Upton will not only cost the Phillies a decent investment but more importantly, the 16th pick in the draft which is extremely valuable. I'd pass.
Vic on a short inexpensive contract would be nice. He still raked LH Pitching .323/.388/.518.
I still want the 25 year old Bourjos. Look at his # of PA's compared to Upton, and then check the WAR. Nice graph Eric.
Bourjos is going to start if they don't resign hunter?
Bourjos would be my first option. He'll have a higher batting average than Upton, hit as many homers, cost less and is three years younger than Upton. He also is an outstanding fielder and base runner.
Agree on all but the average and home runs.
Last 3 years: Upton .242, Bourjos .247
Upton 69 HRs (26 per 700 PAs)
Bourjos 21 HRs (16 per 700)
As Eric's table shows, Upton has been the better hitter (9% better than the league, vs. Bourjos 5% below the league average).
Upton could notch 30 home runs playing in any hitter friendly park.
The Trop is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, whereas CBP is neutral, so Upton should certainly hit better overall here.
But in terms of home runs specifically, while CBP helps lefties and the Trop hurts them, right-handed batters hit about the same number at both CBP and the Trop.
I don't know. It would be nice to have some right handed power, but I don't want to set my hopes for anyone. Centerfield is deep right now, Ruben has options. It's nice to see some offseason rumors proclaiming the Phillies frontrunners, but we all know that anything can happen. For Upton, he can run the count, and he works with hitter's counts, but I think he is best suited as a #2 hitter. I agree Bobby B, he could go yard 30 times with a change in scenery. We'll see. I know we have to get Dom Brown in there at some point.
Hopefully 2012 was just a down year (although the trends aren't particularly encouraging), but I'd be really hesitant to slot a guy with a sub .300 OBP and a ton of strikeouts in the number two slot.*
*Normal "batting order doesn't really matter" caveats apply, of course.
Well, Upton has hit better out of the two spot than any other number in the lineup over his career. And yes, you're right about his declining on-base percentage, but we have to also realize that the Rays have moved him up and down their lineup for years. This season, he hit .30 points higher in the 2 hole than when he led off, however, he shows much more patience with bases empty than with men on base. That shows his 8 walks to his 10 strikeouts in the leadoff position compared to 24:91 in the two hole. I think that there is a way he can bring this all together. The Phillies line-up, even though Charlie likes to make some changes every once and a while, is based on regulars. Jimmy can move around, but he's our leadoff man. Chase and Ryan are 3-4. Chooch can slip into 5. This would give any centerfielder a little more consistency in a line-up as far as batting order.
I would be excited to have Youkilis if he came at a reasonable price. Pagan, Swisher, Upton.. any one of those would be great.
With all the options available I believe RAJ should be patient. No sense out bidding yourself. Phils have a good bit of money, but no need to spend it all right away.
Upton over Vic because of AGE. Upton is a solid player but not a breakthrough for the Phils. Need more.
I'm sure most agree so why pay 4/$50 if you can pay 2/$22 and then go with Gillies or another option?
I'd go with "another option." Gillies has certified talent, but he never seems to be on the field.
A two year contract might not be enough to get any of these center fielders, and it also might not be a long enough period to allow internal options to develop.
I, too, prefer shorter contracts, though.
im a tigers fan. alan trammel was my guy. now it's verlander, what can i say. we've got a lot of bullpen issues. i was looking at ryan madson, and i think the tigers are too. so, i got hooked up with this site- expecting the phillies to have some interest in bringing him back. i guess i just wanted to gauge early interest. i wasn't surprised to see upton's name here. i have my reservations about him, but then again, when i thought about it, i have reservations about all of them- even though there are a lot of good players out there. i'm reading that his strikeouts are an issue here. i agree, def. but- look at austin jackson. he's really found a place here, but he strikes out a lot for a leadoff man. hopefully he will develop more patience– but i think he's young and has that potential. that's what it comes down to– potential. and after initially being skeptical on upton, i think that might be your best acquisition to make. we both have bullpen issues, so i'm sure the tigers and phillies will look at some of the same guys. you guys have a real nice site here. kudos. sad to see polanco go too. i knew it was coming, you guys must have been wishing for it. but he was a great player in his prime, and i hope he can find a role on a good team this year.
Thank you George for pointing out why Upton is a bad idea. High K guy low OBP on a team that has OB issues….I think i will pass…..
I suspect that Eric Seidman can provide more information on the correlation between teams' (batting) K's and runs scored, but I am pretty sure the correlation is low. The Phils' hitters had the 4th fewest K's in 2012 and the 6th lowest K%, yet they were 19th in runs scored. In fact, the 4 teams that struck out the fewest times in the past season were all in the bottom half of runs scored in MLB.
I do know that the correlation between OBP and runs scored is greater than the one between K's and runs scored, but I am pretty sure that the correlation is even higher between (Fangraphs.com's) wOBA and OPS and runs scored than it is between OBP and runs scored. Of the free agent CF's, Upton's wOBA and OPS (over the past 3 seasons and for their careers) are both worse than Hamilton's and Victorino's, but better than Pagan's and Bourn's.
To only concentrate on K's and OBP ignores the one area of Upton's offensive profile in which he has a significant advantage over all of the other free agent CF's other than Hamilton, namely his power. And, as the 2012 Phillies showed, power (or lack thereof) matters.
Decent enough arguments.
The correlation may be low, but there is surely some correlation, and that's important. Also, it should be obvious that a team with a high OBP will score more runs: you rarely score when no one gets on base. Ks don't advance runners and they don't drive anyone in, and they're sometimes a big part of why a player obtains a low OBP. Upton's 26.2 K % is a red flag (IMO) for anyone who isn't a pure power hitter, like a Ryan Howard or a Price Fielder. Upton just doesn't have that kind of power.
And as for the Phil's power shortage last year, please bear in mind that their biggest power guy missed half the season, one of their other lesser power guys was traded midway through, and their eventual team HR leader didn't hit a home run until way into the season.
I've never said that Upton is the wrong guy, if you've read my comments correctly. I've only said that "I'm not sure" that K rate is overcome by his supposed advantages, that most of these CFers are not very different, and that Amaro shouldn't go crazy trying to sign him.
I was responding to bacardipr, who called it a bad idea solely because of K% and OBP.
Of course, OBP correlates highly to runs scored, but it's not like Upton's OBP is so much worse than the OBP's of the other options. Over the past 3 seasons, his OBP was .317, which is below the .346 that Bourn produced and also the .334 that both Pagan and Victorino produced. My point is just that his power relative to those other CF's largely offsets the lower OBP.
I understand why the team's HR's were down last year. That doesn't reduce my desire to see them hit more HR's. It will be great to have Howard back. I think it will be better to have Howard back and Upton batting behind him in the lineup. I'm from the school that believes the more HR's the merrier. Upton has hit 18, 23 and 28 HR's over the past 3 – playing 1/2 his games in a pitcher's park – and is at an age where players are typically still on the upswing.
I agree that Amaro should not go crazy trying to sign Upton, but I don't think he should go crazy trying to sign any CF or any free agent at any position for that matter. The CF marketplace is flush with options and not necessarily so flush with teams who need a CF, so the patient GM's will most likely be the ones that get the best values. The consensus seems to be that Hamilton and Bourn will get the biggest deals, so I am on board with Upton as long as the deal is reasonable.
Upton hits for a low avg. There will be better free agents avail next yr.
I do like Upton's speed and power, but dont we need good baseball players that know how to work the pitcher and hit for avg. That is what the Giants did. They had one player that hit more than 13 homers and they won a World Series. We need baseball players, not just athletic guys.
Hitters who work the count tend to strike out more because they into more two strike counts. B.J. Upton has seen more pitches than average every year as a starter except this year.
As for your last sentence, if you mean we need good players, I agree.
Upton and Howard batting behind each other. What will be the nickname the twin towers of strikeouts.
Who cares? Did you read Eric's comment about a team's K/PA has a negative correlation to its runs scored?
Part of the reason for the lack of correlation between runs scored and strikeouts is because pure power hitters generally strike out the most, but also drive in the most runs due to more extra base hits and home runs.
I just don't think BJ Upton is that much of a power threat to totally negate those extra Ks. His power will help, but to my reading, he just isn't that much more productive, if any, than most of the other guys who aren't striking out in one-quarter of their at-bats. Once again, I'm not saying he's the wrong guy, but I'm not completely sold on him and think Amaro should not make him the exclusive target for center field.
Here, here George.
Ryan Howard, who is clearly in the decline phase of his career, averaged 32 HR's per season in an average of 632 PA's in 2010 and 2011 while playing 1/2 his games in an extreme LH power hitters park.
BJ Upton, who is at an age when players typically improve and improve their power, hit 28 HR's last season while playing in a park that suppresses HR's.
If they both play in Philadelphia next year, how many more HR's do you project that Howard will hit? Also, when assessing a player's production, whether it's OPS or wOBA, why do you care whether the outs that the player made were strikeouts as compared to other kinds of outs (including double plays)?
True, Upton's HR totals will probably increase over the next few years no matter where he plays.
True, CBP favors lefty HR hitters but hurts righties.
In any case, neither Howard nor Upton appears to have been impacted by their home parks so far.
Howard has 300 home runs: 150 at home, 150 on the road
Upton has 118 home runs: 60 at home, 58 on the road
Of the 150 home runs Howard hit at CBP, I'd bet 2/3 were not pulled. He pulls ground balls and line drives, the big flies go everywhere. Upton pulls a very high % of his long balls, but CBP's left field is still not AT&T, Petco or Safeco.
In fact with the exception of dead center, CBP's dimensions are all slightly longer than the Trop.
Of course the wind never "blows out" in that place. (unless I go and eat one too many hot dogs)
I'd take that bet, Lefty.
I'd be willing to guess that more than 1/3 of his homers have been pulled. Probably a lot more.
According to B-R, most of Howard's HRs have been to center:
pulled: 63 (21%)
up the middle: 164 (55%)
opposite field: 73 (24%)
EricL, you owe me a Hatfield dollar dog. The sprays are interesting, there is a reason they play a shift with the infield, but leave the OF's straight away.
hahah whoops.
Well, if nothing else it proved that I didn't cheat and look up the numbers before foolishly taking that deal.
So when do we think the dominos will start to fall?
Suggested reading from Rosenthal, interesting IMO.
Upton does strike out a lot, but there are a couple of arguments for why K's aren't that important.
The simple one is this:
If you analyze every play over several years, and calculate how each type of play impacts the number of runs scored, on average, a strikeout doesn't hurt a team's run scoring any more than a ground ball or fly out. More here: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/linear_weights_1993_2010/
There are situations of course when a strikeout hurts: runner on third, less than two out, for example. But these are balanced by the much more numerous situations where a strikeout is preferable. Runner on 1st with nobody out, for example, where it's better than a double play.
A second argument is more involved, and that's that the "productive outs" that strikeouts cost you are really very few.
Baseball-reference.com tracks the number of "productive out" opportunities and % of those that were successful. Productive outs are defined as:
– advancing a runner with none out
– driving in a runner with one out
– pitcher's sacrifice with one out
On average, a full season has ~60 opportunities for productive outs, and 32% (19) are successful. Also, the average MLB strikeout rate is 20%, so out of 60 opportunities, on average 12 are strikeouts, meaning that 19 of the 48 non-Ks are successful (40%).
The average K rate of 20% translates into 131 Ks per 650 plate appearances. How would a much lower or higher K rate impact the successful productive outs?
Looking at the 60 productive out opportunities in particular:
With a 10% rate, there would be 6 fewer Ks per 60 PAs, and 40% of those would be successful, resulting in 2.4 more productive outs in a full season.
At the other end, with a 30% rate, there would be 6 more Ks per 60 PAs, and with a 40% success rate it wold result in 2.4 FEWER productive outs in a full season.
So in terms of productive outs, including getting a runner home from 3rd with one out, the diference between a very low K rate and a very high one is a total of about 5 productive outs in a full season.
Does this analysis take GIDP's into consideration? In 956 PA's with a man on 1st and less than 2 outs, Ryan Howard has grounded into 82 double plays. I suspect after many of them, I said to myself, "why couldn't he have just struck out there?"
Right, it doesn't. Any additional GIDPs resulting from striking out less would reduce the benefit of those 5 extra productive outs.
Just because a DP is less productive than a K, doesn't mean that a K is a good thing. They ere both unproductive outs. I've also seen too many instances of the batter striking out on a hit-and-run play, which actually produce DPs (runner thrown out at second). GIDP doesn't include that situation.
I know I'm nitpicking, but in my opinion, some of this discussion is getting into that area.
Of course, baseball is a "game of inches," as they say. So maybe those 5 extra productive outs per year are more important than we think, and picking the proverbial nit is, too.
Interesting points Schmenkman, I see where you are going, the overall point being that there are few situations where K's are worse than other outs. I'm good with that, DP's are the killer outs.
– but I think in your explanation, you're missing ten outs.
"On average, a full season has ~60 opportunities for productive outs, and 32% (19) are successful. Also, the average MLB strikeout rate is 20%, so out of 60 opportunities, on average 12 are strikeouts, meaning that 19 of the 48 non-Ks are successful (40%)."
I'm not a strong in math, but from the approximate 60- 32% and 40% can't both be 19. And 19+12+19=50.
I don't have enough knowledge to know how much this skews the rest of your argument, or if it does at all, but I suspect it's minimal.
Lefty, I was trying to estimate the impact of K's on productive outs by working out what % of non-K opportunities are successful.
We know that out of 60 opportunities a typical player has in a season, 32% (i.e. 19) are successful. But on average 20% (i.e. 12) of those 60 opportunities end in a strike out, so when NOT striking out, 40% of the opportunities (19 out of 48) are successful.
Rereading that, it sounds alarmingly like Leonard Hofstadter.
@Schmenkman- Haha Leonard! – and it leaves me no less confused but that is easy to do.
But it doesn't matter, I totally agree with the general premise. During draft day last spring in one of my late rounds I chose Adam Dunn. As you can imagine, everyone chided me about his strikeouts and BA, without taking into account OBP and power. I took the crap from everyone-but the guy won a lot of games for me. I think we mentioned this before but he led the league in both K's and walks, producing a .204/.333/.468/.800 line- .789 OPS w RISP. He cost me nothing as a late rounder and produced when I used him. Yes he made a lot of untimely strike outs, but it's hard to expect more than .789 w RISP from my 22nd or 23rd pick.
Why isn't advancing a runner with one out not productive? It can move him into scoring position and there'd still be a chance the next batter could drive him in.
Why isn't driving in a runner with no outs not productive?
And why must a pitcher wait one out before his sacrifice becomes productive?
Have you left out those situations, or has Baseball Reference?
It's B-R's definition, and I agree it seems more restrictive than it needs to. B-R is copying the definition used by ESPN and Elias:
"A Productive Out, as defined and developed by ESPN The Magazine and the Elias Sports Bureau: when a fly ball, grounder or bunt advances a runner with nobody out; when a pitcher bunts to advance a runner with one out (maximizing the effectiveness of the pitcher's at-bat), or when a grounder or fly ball scores a run with one out."
Along these lines, this might be interesting. Someone analyzed Adam Dunn's first 69 games this year (in which he struck out 109 times). Conclusion:
"Over the course of 69 games and 109 strikeouts, I have found exactly one situation in which a productive out could have actually made the difference in a game. In my opinion, that's not a very good reason to criticize Dunn for his high strikeout totals. His .225 batting average really isn't any worse than any other .225 batting average. Trying to force him to alter his swing to cut down on his strikeouts probably has more downside risk (fewer homers) than upside opportunity."
In 57% of BJ Upton's career PA's, the bases have been empty. In another 16% of his career PA's, there have been two outs and men on base. Therefore, in 73% of his career PA's, there has been no difference between a K and any other type of out. That leaves us with 27% of his career PA's in which it was even possible for him to produce a "good out" while some of that 27% presented him with the possibility of producing 2 outs. Upton strikes out in 25% of his PA's, which according to the machine named schmenkman, is 5% above league average. Therefore, Upton's high K% has cost him the chance at a good out in ~1.35% of his career PA's. When you consider that some of the other kinds of outs could have been worse than K's (GIDP's) or the same as K's (fielder's choice ground outs and pop-outs), the impact of his high K rate on his team has most likely been just about nil.
Oh man, I hadn't even read this far down yet before commenting above. Just a coincidence.
1.35% in a game of inces, as I said earlier, could still have an effect. It's also nitpicking, which I also indicated earlier.
I've also never said that Upton wasn't a good option. I've only said he wasn't the only option.
Ks are not productive. Even a K with the bases empty, in case you didn't realize it when citing all those numbers, is also not productive. It's just a big fat out. The guy who doesn't whiff has a better chance of getting on base, becuase fielders sometimes kick grounders, throw the ball down the line. get the sun in their eyes, or have a ball take a bad bounce. How many times does a batter K and have the ball escape the catcher?
Right now, I'm disgusted with the entire discussion. The numbers presented by others all seem to say that I'm correct. It's nitpicking, for sure, but even if the K rate only tilts the performance .0000000001% to the negative, it's still a difference.
I'll also say this: If Upton does man center for the Phils, when he strikes out with RISP, he'll be bashed as much or more than Jayson Werth was in his final year in Philly, or as much as Ryan Howard always is.
Finally, please get it through your head (and I'm not singling you out, HK) that I'm only pointing out why I think other players should also be considered. There's not much difference in any of them (and I've pointed that out several times), but Upton's K rate is one of those differences and should be considered. I personally am not sure (note, I've never once said I'm absolutely certain of it) his other positives completely overcome that difference.
George, those are very valid points, but let me see if I can reconcile the different views:
Once you know that a plate appearance has resulted in an out, it can make some difference (and I know we can debate how much) whether it's a strikeout or other type of out.
However, and what you're rightly referring to, before you know it's an out, what you do know is that:
– a K will be an out ~100% of the time, whereas
– a ball in play will be an out only ~70% of the time, since BABIP varies between .250 and .350 depending on where and how well the ball is hit, the speed of the runner, the quality of the defense, etc.
But let's say you're comparing two players who have similar overall stats, but different K rates. For example:
1) Victorino: 109 wRC+, 11.9% K/PA
2) B.J. Upton: 109 wRC+, 26.2% K/PA
The fact that Victorino benefits from a lower K rate is already included in his 109 wRC+ (or OPS+, or wOBA, or whatever comprehensive stat you choose). So I don't believe there is any reason to penalize Upton for having the higher K rate. You can say that Upton could be a much better hitter than Victorino if he lowered his K's (all else being equal), but I don't think it's correct to say that Upton is somehow a better hitter given their stats as they stand today.
I'd have to look at how that wRC figure is calculated. Some of the more arcane stats, I've found, try to do too much and have a tendency to compere apples and oranges and arbitralily decide that a pop-up that drops isn't as good as a grounder that sneaks through.
I could find that it's fine, or I could also decide it's missed something vital, like maybe how a batter does when his pinkie finger is twitching. (That twitching pinkie might actaully be one batter's trigger, but might cause another to lose his grip on the bat.)
Baseball is a game of quirks, odd personallities, inconsistencies, and strange bounces. It's a game that epitomozes the second guess. I'm all for statistics, but there are times when gut feelings can be just as accurrate. My gut feeling says to hold off a bit on a high strikeout guy until you truly know he's the best option as far as age, price, attitude, and ability.
wRC+ is to wOBA as OPS+ is to OPS (i.e. it normalizes wOBA for the league and park).
Background on wOBA can be found here: http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
@George- according to the table, 5 of them (Bourn, Upton, Young, Bourjos and Sizemore) are all pretty much "high strikeout guys" at rates between 1 out of every 4 to 5 AB's. Victorino, Span and Pagan are the only ones in the 1 out of every 8 to 10 range.
But there are so many other factors to look at, and it just seems like you are focused in on the one stat, K rate. Upton for instance, also has the second highest BB% of anyone on the list. Another example is that Bourjos has 3/4 the WAR Upton has in half as many AB's.
But I totally agree with you on the quirks, inconsistencies, and strange bounces etc. There simply isn't a stat for everything, they're humans. Well, except Papelbon, not quite sure what he is yet. 🙂
Lefty, once again, all I'm saying saying is "hold off." There are other things to look at, but when they are all so similar, one has to focus on something.
If it helps clarify anything, I'd also make a case of the high rates of those others (Bourn, Bourjos, etc.) but Eric has his article a case for Upton being the best all around. He hasn't focused on any of the others players, so I am not either.
If you want my further opinion, I'd scratch Sizemore, Bourjos and Span right off the list, because Sizemore is a injury about to happen, Span would cost a player, and Bourjos will cost a player, has that high K rate I don't like, and isn't productive enough at the plate. It's clearly between Upton, Bourn, Victorino, and Pagan, and none of them are the kind of player you have to have instead of the other. If it's Upton, so be it. At least I'll have someone to boo when he strikes out too many times in crucial situations.
By the way, I'm not sure what Papelbon is , either.
Oh wow, you know what George? You are absolutely right, we got so deeply involved in all matter of subjects that I nearly, well actually did, forget that this was Eric's posting about the Phils being considered frontrunners for BJ Upton! So, quite right, point taken.
On your opinions on the others my only disagreement is with Bourjos, who, for reasons I can't totally explain, I value high enough to give up a decent player. I don't know why, other than to say that my eyes see promise there that others maybe don't. It's the curse of having the MLB package, I'm hopelessly addicted. I watch too much, I see good ball players, and catch myself thinking, man there's a guy I'd like to see in a Phillie uniform. I began thinking that about Bourjos (and Chase Headley) watching late night west coast games a couple of seasons ago.
I seriously doubt anyone in the Phillies front office gives a rats a$$ about what any of us think anyway, I guess it's just fun to have something to talk about during the dark cold months.
Lefty: You are entitled to your opinion on Bourjos probably more so than I am. You've obviously seen him more.
I've always preferred the eye test, and have actually been pretty good about picking up on who had a future. Even so, TV is not the best place to see a player in action. I often wish I had the means to see more games live, from good seats. I once sat right behind the plate at a single A game with Danial Bard on the mound. You could see the action on his pitches quite clearly, and when he tossed a wild pitch, the noise it made against the backstop (after bouncing in the dirt first!) made half the stadium jump. You don't get that on the tube.
Kudos to the Billy Beans on the site. The numbers are very interesting and difficult to keep up with even for a guy with a college mathematics degree.
Don't fell bad, schmenkman is a robot.
He is 'a machine'.
I'd like to know how he feels about this comparison:
The 16th Pick and $52/4 for BJ Upton: LuxTax hit $13 or
Brown/Va;;e or Joseph/Asche or Franco/Biddle or May and Nix/schierholtz Lux Tax hit of $8.33 over 3 years.
Im in the upton camp for sure but one thing that needs to be said here is that if they sign upton they forfeit the 16th pick. In years past when we had the 30th pick, not as big a deal. However, just a few names that have gone within 3 picks of 16 over the past 10 years?
Hamels, swisher, Brett lawrie, jayson Heyward, drew storen Chris sale just to name a few.
Lucas giolito fell to 16 last year. With the new CBA and draft rules it's a much bigger deal than ever, especially when you factor in the signing slot figures.
What's the deadline for exclusive negotiating rights for FA's? Thanks in advance.
•Immediately after World Series – Eligible players hit free agency
•Three days after World Series – Option decisions due
•Five days after World Series – Qualifying offers due
•Six days after World Series – Free agents can sign contracts with teams other than their former clubs
•12 days after World Series – Players must accept or reject qualifying offers
•November 7th – 9th – GM Meetings
•November 20th – Deadline for setting 40-man roster in advance of Rule 5 Draft
•November 30th – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players
•December 3rd – 6th – Winter Meetings
•December 6th – Rule 5 Draft takes place at Winter Meetings
•January – Teams, players exchange arbitration figures
•February – Arbitration hearings take place
How does pagan compare to upton with all these specialized stats?
Their 2010-2012 stats are in Eric's table. Unless you mean some other stats.
Went back and reviewed the table. I'd honestly sign the guy the Phils could get for the least amount of years with the second parameter being the least salary. I'd take a serious look at Hunter since he may fit those parameters. Span is a nice idea, but the last thing the Phils need is another lefty. Glad RAJ has been patient so far.
Over the past 3 years, when you factor in hitting, fielding and base running, Pagan has pretty much been equal to Upton. However, you also have to consider that Pagan will turn 32 next season while Upton will turn 29. I would sooner see the Phils give Pagan $33M for 3 years than give Upton $75M for 5 years.
I agree, but from what I gather, it sounds like Upton's familiarity with the new hitting coach Henderson and new special assistant to RA Jr. Bart Braun, gives him the upper hand right now.
At those prices, I would prefer Upton.
Pingback: Around The Horn: Phillies Offseason Targets for 2013 « fightinon


text:
Meet disfigured man kissed by pope
Published On: Nov 26 2013 12:31:12 PM CST
Vinicio Riva has long been accustomed to the unkindness of strangers. He suffers from a non-infectious genetic disease that has left him completely covered from head to toe with growths. But one person who did not hesitate to embrace him warmly was Pope Francis.